JUNE17/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $11.25//SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS//PLATINUM DOWN $22.25//PLATINUM DOWN $22.25//PLATINUM DOWN $60.45 TO $1825.45/COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1838.30 DOWN $11.25 

SILVER: $21.62 DOWN $0.15

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1840.30

SILVER: $21.68

Bitcoin morning price:  $21,143 DOWN 526

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,436  DOWN 181  

Platinum price: closing DWN $10.85 to $933.25

Palladium price; closing DOWN $26.60  at $1825.45

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE:EXCHANGE: 

COMEX

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan:  26/52

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 06/16/2022 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 06/16/2022
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:34:48
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,845.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/16/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 06/21/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 20
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 44 26
800 C MAREX SPEC 5
905 C ADM 4
972 C IRONBEAM INC 2


TOTAL: 52 52
MONTH TO DATE: 23,741

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT 52  NOTICE(S) FOR 5200 Oz//0.1617  TONNES)

total notices so far: 23,741 contracts for 2,374,100 oz (73.947 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

25 NOTICE(S) FILED 125,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1787 :  for 8,935,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.6 TONNES INTO THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 543.660 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED  1087 CONTRACTS TO 144,039   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.46 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.46) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS.  

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 27 CONTRACTS OR 135,000 OZ//NEW STANDING:  9,035,000 / //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  :-799

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 12 days, total 10,552,  contracts:  52.760 million oz  OR 4.396 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (879 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 53.76 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 53.76 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  1087 DESPITE OUR STRONG  $0.46 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 375 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 135,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 9,035,000 OZ //  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 712 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 3/560 MILLION  OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 25  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  125,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 3510 CONTRACTS  TO 495.625 AND FURTHER NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -367 CONTRACTS.

.

THE  FAIR GAIN IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $28.95//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.26 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  2900 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING:  74.606 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $28.95 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 6345  OI CONTRACTS 19.73 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  2465 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 492,113

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6345, WITH 3143 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3510 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6712 CONTRACTS OR 20/87 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3202) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3143,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 6345 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE. AT 69.26 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE.  JUMP  OF 3800 OZ//NEW STANDING: 74.696 TONNES /  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

53,202 CONTRACTS OR 5,320,200 OZ OR 165.48  TONNES 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4092 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 165.48 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  165.42/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.66% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 155.52 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1886 CONTRACT OI TO 144,039 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 375 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 375  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1880 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 375 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A LARGE SIZED LOSS OF 1511   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7.55 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.46 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.02 PTS OR 0.61%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 462.78 PTS OR 2.13%    /The Nikkei closed UP 105.04 OR 0.40%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.03%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7149    /Oil DOWN TO 113.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 116.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7149 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7204: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3143 CONTRACTS TO 495,286 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $28.95 IN GOLD PRICING  THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (3202 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3202 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :3202 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3202 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED  TOTAL OF 6345  CONTRACTS IN THAT 3202 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3143  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $28.95.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JUNE   (74.606),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.609 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $28.95) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN  OF 6712 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (74.609 TONNES)

WE HAD 367 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6345 CONTRACTS OR 634,500  OZ OR 19.73 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 135,216/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  188,634  /fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE ’22 COMEX GOLD //JUNE 17

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz343,579.605 oZ
Brinks
JPM int.Delaware
2015 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today52  notice(s) 55200 OZ 0.1667 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)283 contracts 28,300 oz 0.8802 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month23,741 notices 2,374,100 OZ
73.947 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

total deposits: nil oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks  181,056.300 oz

ii) Out of Int. Delaware  1768.385 oz (55 kilobars)

ii) Out of JPM:  160,755.000 oz (5000 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 343,579.605  oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 1/dealer to customer/Loomis:

4822.650 oz 

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.

For the front month of JUNE we have an  oi of 335 contracts having LOST 840 contracts

We had 878 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED 38   contracts or an additional 3800 oz will  stand for gold in this very active month of June 

July has a LOSS OF 152 OI to stand at 1721

August has a GAIN of 3798 contracts UP to 411,780 contracts

We had 52 notice(s) filed today for  5200 oz FOR THE JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 52 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  26 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,741) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JUNE 336  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 52 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,398,600 OZ  OR 74.609 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of JUNE. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (23,689) x 100 oz+   (336)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (878} x 100 oz} which equals 2,401,500 oz standing OR 74.720 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JUNE.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  74,720 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A JUNE (  ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,419,784.828 oz   75.26 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  33,811,562.083 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,303,434.968  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,508,127.075 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,093154.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//JUNE 17

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory464,323.742  oz
Brinks
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)25CONTRACT(S)
125,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)20 contracts (100,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1787 contracts 8,935,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  1 dealer deposit

Into Manfra: 228,361.000 oz  

total dealer deposits:  228,361.000    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 0 deposit into the customer account

total deposit:  0    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 169,419 million oz/336.735 million =50.31% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 2

i)Brinks 374,724.110

ii)CNT 139,599.632 oz

total withdrawal  464,323.742         oz

 adjustments:  1 jpm

dealer to customer: 191,084

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 71.898 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 336.780 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI: 45 HAVING LOST 44 CONTRACTS. 

WE HAD 71 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 27 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 135,000 OZ WILL  STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE

DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 5493 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 51,275 CONTRACTS.

AUGUST LOST 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 990

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 3644 CONTRACTS UP TO 74,655 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 25 for  125,000 oz

Comex volumes:54,075// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 67,682 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1787 x 5,000 oz = 8,935,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(45) and the number of notices served upon today 25  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JUNE./2022 contract month: 1787 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (45)  – number of notices served upon today (25) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates 9,035,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPIST OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.10: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.95//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

May 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.10/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

GLD INVENTORY: 1075.54 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/?

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 558.071 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ///

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg

Hold On To Your Seat!

FRIDAY, JUN 17, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

The S&P is in bear market territory, which is defined as a decline of 20% or more from recent highs.

And it may fall even further. Since World War II, there have been 14 bear markets. The median loss during these bear markets has been 30%, and they lasted about a year (hat tip to Bespoke Investment Group).

The Kind of Drop We Haven’t Seen in Decades

And with the Fed ready to raise interest rates again in July (after hiking by 75bps this week following last week’s red-hot inflation data – CPI and UMich expectations), we could be soon witnessing an even bigger drop in the market – the kind that we haven’t seen in decades.

That’s not fear-mongering or hyperbole. It’s just a sober assessment of the situation.

The Fed is deeply concerned about inflation, and it will continue to aggressively raise interest rates to try to tamp it down.

But neither the economy nor the stock market can take the kind of tightening required to really get a hold on inflation.

Since the end of World War II, the Fed has embarked on perhaps a dozen tightening cycles in which it raised interest rates.

All but one of these tightening cycles resulted in recession. That’s a nearly perfect record.

And there’s absolutely no reason to expect that this time will be any different, especially with the tremendous excesses within the financial system.

Which brings up the question, is the Federal Reserve broke?

How Can the Fed Be Broke?

When you bring up the topic of the Federal Reserve going broke, most individuals react by saying, “That’s impossible! The Fed can’t go broke. They can just print more money.”

That’s a typical reaction, but it displays a misunderstanding of what money is and how the Fed actually works. Yes, the Fed can print all the money it wants. But money is not an asset for the Fed; it’s a liability.

Take a $20 bill out of your purse or wallet and read it. On a banner across the top it says, “Federal Reserve Note.” A note is a form of debt; in other words, it’s a liability. That becomes clear when you look at the Fed’s balance sheet (it’s publicly available on the Fed’s website).

Assets consist mainly of securities: mostly U.S. Treasury bills and notes and mortgage-backed securities. Liabilities consist of cash, coins and reserves deposited by member banks at the Fed. The Fed’s net worth or capital is simply the net of the assets minus liabilities.

That equity account is a small sliver of capital relative to the total assets.

In other words, the Fed looks like a highly leveraged hedge fund. Printing money can be used to buy more securities, but all that does is leverage the balance sheet even more by piling more assets (securities) and liabilities (money and reserves) on top of the same sliver of capital.

But what if it’s worse than that? What if the assets are less than the liabilities so the Fed has a negative net worth?

Less Than Zero

A negative net worth is one definition of insolvency, which is a fancy name for broke. In the steady state, this would not happen. The Fed could just sit still; let assets mature at par value; and get paid the cash by the issuer, at which point the cash just disappears when the Fed receives it.

The Fed could gradually deleverage just by doing nothing. But what if the Fed balance sheet were marked to market like a real hedge fund? Or what if the Fed sold securities at a loss instead of just waiting for them to mature at par value?

The Fed’s accounting method does not mark to market, but any analyst can run the numbers anyway just by looking at asset maturities and using current market prices for those assets. If you do this, you find that higher interest rates have resulted in many securities in Fed’s portfolio being worth less than book value.

That’s bond math 101: higher rates = lower prices. Beyond that, the Fed does not want to wait to deleverage. It wants to reduce the balance sheet quickly. That means asset sales, especially the less liquid mortgage-backed securities.

That’s where real operating losses arise because an actual sale below par value results in a loss that must be charged against capital. So yes, the Fed is probably insolvent on a mark-to-market basis (a method it does not use).

A Fed Governor Admits the Fed Is Insolvent

If you evaluated the Fed on a mark-to-market basis the way you would with a hedge fund, its capital would be wiped out. It’s insolvent. I once had a conversation with a member of the Federal Open Market Committee who admitted this to me privately. I reached a conclusion on my own, but she confirmed it.

The conversation went like this: I said, “I think the Fed is insolvent.”

This governor first resisted and said, “No, we’re not.” But I pressed her a little bit harder and she said, “Well, maybe.”

And then I just looked at her and she said, “Well, we are, but it doesn’t matter.”

In other words, a governor of the Federal Reserve admitted to me, privately, that the Federal Reserve is insolvent but said it doesn’t matter because central banks don’t need capital.

Well, central banks do need capital.

She may be right in the short term that it doesn’t really matter. Most people don’t even know what the Federal Reserve is let alone the inside accounting issues I described here. But in the next panic, it just might matter.

Maybe Gold Is the Foundation of the Monetary System After All

The problem is each financial crisis is larger than the one that preceded it because the system itself is larger due to massive central bank interventions. It’s a matter of scale.

How can the Fed bail out big banks when the Fed itself is insolvent? The issue might not be a legal one so much as a matter of confidence.

Just in case, the Fed does have a hidden asset to offset all of those not-so-hidden losses. The Fed has a gold certificate on its books based on a quantity of gold valued at $42.22 per ounce.

If that gold were revalued to the current market price of $1,850 per ounce, another $500 billion would appear out of thin air. That could be added to Fed capital.

The Fed doesn’t like to talk about gold, but maybe the entire monetary system is based on gold after all.

One day we might just find out the hard way.

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //LITHIUM

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Heavy losses from big crypto hedge fund 3AC 

(zerohedge)

Three Arrows Founder Breaks Silence As Another Crypto Lender Starts Melting Down

FRIDAY, JUN 17, 2022 – 10:45 AM

Crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) is exploring asset sales and other options after suffering heavy losses amid a broad selloff in cryptocurrencies and other digital assets, the firm’s founders said on Friday.

“We have always been believers in crypto and we still are,” co-founder Kyle Davies told the Wall Street Journal – the first communication from the company since Zhu Su, the firm’s other co-founder, fired off a cryptic tweet on Tuesday that simply said the company is “in the process of communicating with relevant parties and fully committed to working this out.”

The hedge fund had roughly $3 billion in assets under management in April, before ‘stablecoin’ TerraUSD, and its sister token, Luna, suddenly collapsed.

Three Arrows was among a group of large investors that took part in a $1 billion token sale earlier this year by Luna Foundation Guard, a nonprofit organization started by South Korean developer Do Kwon, the creator of TerraUSD. The funds went toward a bitcoin-denominated reserve for the stablecoin, and were meant to help maintain TerraUSD’s value at $1 per coin.

Mr. Davies said Three Arrows invested about $200 million in Luna as part of that deal, a sum that was effectively wiped out when TerraUSD and Luna both became worthless in a matter of days. -WSJ

According to Davies, the firm is hoping to reach an agreement with creditors that would allow it more time to work out a plan.

Before losing $60 billion in market cap, TerraUSD and Luna were among the top-10 largest digital coins – and were largely considered low-risk.

“The Terra-Luna situation caught us very much off guard,” said Davies, adding that the selloff was ‘unprecedented,’ and the fact that the Luna foundation began dumping bitcoin to help support TerraUSD also contributed to the selloff in bitcoin itself in May.

While Three Arrows was able to weather the Luna losses, a subsequent cascade of events led to a selling contagion that has destroyed the value of a number of coins and projects in the crypto space. For context, in November, Crypto’s total market cap was nearly $3 trillion. Now it stands at $910 million, according to CoinMarketCap.

As a result, some lenders have been demanding full, or at least partial repayment on loans they extended to crypto investors. Compounding the problem are rising interest rates, which has caused riskier assets to sell off.

“We were not the first to get hit…This has been all part of the same contagion that has affected many other firms,” said Davies, who added that 3AC is still trying to quantify its losses and place a value on their illiquid assets – such as VC investments in various crypto projects.

“We are the biggest investors in the fund, and our intent was always for everyone to do well in it,” said Zhu, who predicted last year that bitcoin would enter a ‘growth supercycle’ where prices continually rose and achieved mainstream adoption.

“Supercycle price thesis was regrettably wrong, but crypto will still thrive and change the world every day,” he tweeted in late May as the selloff in crypto rattled investors.

3AC raised eyebrows on Tuesday when it liquidated at least $40 million of “staked” Ether (stETH), making it the largest seller of the token in the past week, according to The Defiant.

Cracks began to form after stETH – which has historically traded with ETH – began to “de-peg” last week, causing the Celsius Network – a “centralized, one-stop-shop for crypto investors and traders” – to freeze customer assets so that it could “honor, over time, its withdrawal obligations.”

Who’s next?

With Bitcoin now hovering at just over $20,000, down from a peak of $64,000 a little more than six months ago, the crypto industry continues to reverberate from the selloff.

The latest firm on the chopping block appears to be Hong Kong-based asset manager Babel Finance, which on Friday officially announced that they were suspending redemptions and withdrawals, citing “unusual liquidity pressures,” according to Cointelegraph.

“Recently, the crypto market has seen major fluctuations, and some institutions in the industry have experienced conductive risk events,” reads the statement, which adds taht the firm is in close communication with “all related parties” and will do its best to protect customers.

The move echoes that of Celsius, a crypto staking and lending platform, which halted withdrawals on June 13.

Stay tuned…

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7149

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7204

HANG SANG CLOSED  DOWN 462.78 PTS OR 2.13% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 105.04% OR 0.40%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  104.91/Euro FALLS TO 1.0399

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.250/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 132.79/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.907%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.03% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.03%…ALL BLOWING UP!!

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.33//

3j Gold at $1822.40 silver at: 21.40  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  4/10      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 56.66

3m oil into the 113 dollar handle for WTI and  116 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 134.49DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.98069– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0198well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.468 UP 7  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.474  UP 7 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.32

Futures Rebound, Yen Crashes To End Turbulent Week On $3.4 Trillion Quad-Witch Day

FRIDAY, JUN 17, 2022 – 08:12 AM

Ending a rollercoaster – but mostly lower – week for risk assets around the globe which saw the Fed hike the most since 1994, a shock Swiss National Bank hike and the latest boost in UK borrowing costs, as well as a bevy of central banks surprising hawkishly, stocks in Europe finally rebounded after hitting an 18 month low earlier this week, while US equity futures were bid Friday after a rout triggered by fears of recession pushed the S&P into a bear market on Monday. S&P futures rose 1% and Nasdaq futures rebounded 1.2% signaling steadier sentiment compared with Thursday’s plunge in US shares to the lowest since late 2020, after the BOJ refused to change its Yield Curve Control conditions, sending the Yen plunging, and helping the dollar snap two days of losses as Treasury yields were flat with the 10Y around 3.21%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index jumped about 1.2% after hitting its lowest level in more than a year.

Friday also brings an absolutely massive triple-witching, and although Bloomberg believes that the roughly $3.2 trillion in options expiry may lead to short covering, which could bring temporary relief for the stock market…

… we disagree, as the bulk of open interest is around 4,100 or several hundred points above spot, meaning moves today will have little impact on “derivative tails wagging the dog.”

In any case, absent a massive 5% rally today which sends stocks into the green, the S&P is looking at being down 10 of the past 11 weeks, a feat that has been repeated just once in history: 1970. Let’s go Brandon!

In premarket trading, Revlon surged after a report that Reliance Industries Ltd. is considering buying the company. Major technology and internet stocks were higher, rebounding from Thursday’s rout. Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. were among those advancing. US-listed Chinese stocks also soared in the premarket, a day after the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index’s 4.4% slide, with e-commerce giant JD.com (JD US) leading the pack ahead of the closely watched 618 online shopping event. Additionally, Chinese tech giants such as Alibaba surges on a Reuters report that China’s central bank has accepted Ant Group’s application to set up a financial holding company. Alibaba shares surge 11% following the report. Among other large- cap Chinese internet stocks, JD.com +9.3%, Pinduoduo +7.5%, Baidu +5.6%. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:

  • Adobe (ADBE US) shares fall 4% in premarket trading on Friday after the software company cut its revenue forecast for the full year as it expects currency fluctuations, seasonal shifts in demand and the decision to end sales in Russia and Belarus to weigh on its business.
  • Roku (ROKU US) shares climb 3.9% in premarket trading after the company and Walmart said they entered a pact to enable streamers to purchase featured products fulfilled by Walmart directly on Roku.
  • US Steel (X US) shares rise 5.2% in US premarket trading after the metal giant’s 2Q22 guidance came in well above consensus estimates, according to Morgan Stanley analysts led by Carlos De Alba.
  • Rhythm (RYTM US) shares are 13% lower in US premarket trading after the company’s Imcivree injection failed to win approval for one of the two supplemental indications it sought and the company announced a financing agreement with HealthCare Royalty Partners.
  • Revlon (REV US) shares surge 65% in premarket trading after Reliance Industries is considering buying Revlon in the US, ET Now reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

Markets are rounding off a turbulent week buffeted by interest-rate increases which are rapidly draining liquidity, sparking losses in a range of assets. Global stocks face one of their worst weeks since pandemic-induced turmoil of 2020. The question is how far assets have to sink before the tightening cycle is fully priced in. Bucking the global hawkish trend, Japan, retianed super-easy monetary policy and yield curve control, defying pressure to track the global trend toward tighter settings. As a result, the Japanese yen is on course for its biggest fall against the dollar since March 2020 while Japan’s 10-year bond yield retreated below the Bank of Japan’s cap of 0.25%, after earlier hitting 0.265%, the highest since 2016. The Swiss franc surged to its highest level against the yen since 1980.

“Investors have to ask themselves how long the rate-hiking cycle will go and how deep the economic slowdown will be,” said Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse Group AG, which is overweight equities and recently closed its underweight position in bonds. “Peak hawkishness, i.e. the peak in expectations repricing, might be close. Once we are there, it is not only possible but likely that we will see a rebound in both equities and bonds. However, this rebound will be very difficult to time.”

Despite the ongoing slow-motion crash, US stocks attracted another $14.8 billion in the week to June 15, their sixth consecutive week of additions, according to EPFR Global data. In total, $16.6 billion flowed into equities globally in the period, while bonds had the largest redemptions since April 2020 and just over $50 billion exited cash, the data showed.

European equities climbed after a choppy start. Euro Stoxx 600 rallied 1.4%. FTSE MIB outperforms peers, adding 1.7%. European real estate companies are among the best performers, rebounding after several days of losses following concerns higher interest rates will weigh on the sector’s financing abilities. Sweden’s Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden (SBB) rises as much as 10%, Aroundtown +6.5%, Wallenstam +5.9%, Vonovia +4.9%. Here are some of the biggest European movers:

  • Nokian Renkaat shares gain as much as 11% after the Finnish tire manufacturer raised its net sales guidance for 2022 while also keeping its profit guidance intact.
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB index rises as much as 2%, leading gains among major European stock markets; Italy-Germany 10-year bond yield spread falls to one- month low. Best performers on the index include Campari +5.4%, Pirelli +5.3%, DiaSorin +5.1%, Recordati +4%
  • Ferrari gains as much as 2.4% in the wake of upgrades from Intesa Sanpaolo and Banca Akros after the luxury carmaker unveiled its electrification strategy on Thursday.
  • Glencore climbs as much as 3.9% in London after the commodities group said its first-half trading profit will be bigger than it typically reports for an entire year.
  • Playtech rises as much as 6.4% after the gambling operator announced the deadline for TTB to make a firm offer has been extended to next month.
  • Lisi advances as much as 9.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the Boeing supplier to buy, saying its post-Covid recovery isn’t yet priced in.
  • Volvo Cars falls as much as 5.4% to the lowest since April after DNB cut its recommendation on the shares to sell due to falling demand, also noting risks related to the Polestar SPAC listing.
  • Rexel drops as much as 3.9% as Kepler Cheuvreux analyst William Mackie cuts his recommendation to hold from buy, citing the “rapidly rising probability of a recession.”

Italian bonds led a rally in European debt after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pledged that borrowing costs of more indebted nations in the euro-area won’t be allowed to spiral out of control. Italy’s 10-year yield fell 20 basis points and German equivalents dropped six basis points.

Asian stocks tumbled to a two-year low as traders fear the global rush to hike interest rates may result in a steep economic downturn.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped as much as 1.5% Friday. The measure has fallen every session this week, and is on track to post its largest weekly drop since since the early days of the pandemic in March 2020. Asia stocks have fallen along with global peers as concerns over the potential for more jumbo rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which raised its benchmark by 75 basis points on Wednesday, triggered a broad market rout. As the global campaign to rein in decades-high inflation continues, investors worry policy tightening may become overdone and throw major economies into recessions.  Japanese shares led Friday’s slump in Asia, with the decision by the Bank of Japan to keep its ultra-loose monetary settings unchanged providing limited fillip as volatility in the yen grows. Stocks in China and Hong Kong bucked the regional selloff, as Beijing’s pro-growth policy lends support to views that Chinese equities can keep outperforming.    Read: Yen Tumbles as BOJ Stands Pat, Makes Rare Reference to FX Market “In the immediate short term (next 2-3 months), we continue to expect Asian stocks to remain volatile,” Chetan Seth, Asia Pacific equity strategist at Nomura Holdings in Singapore, wrote in a note.“However, we do expect some stabilization into late 3Q as equity valuations reset and positive catalysts emerge.” The catalysts Nomura is looking for are the Fed turning less hawkish as US inflation shows signs of softening and China loosening its Covid-Zero stance. Equity benchmarks in Australia and Vietnam were the other big losers in Asia on Friday, with each dropping more than 1.5%.

Japanese stocks trimmed losses as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain its easy-money policy.  The Topix fell 1.7% to 1,835.90 as of market close, while the Nikkei declined 1.8% to 25,963.00. Both gauges had been down more than 2.6% earlier in the day. The yen was down 1.3% to around 134 per dollar. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 3.6%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 423 rose and 1,689 fell, while 58 were unchanged. The Topix fell 5.5% this week, its worst since April 2020. BOJ Holds Firm to Deepen Outlier Status, Keep Pressure on Yen “If the yen further weakens, this will help the Nikkei 225 to remain firm to some extent,” said Makoto Furukawa, chief portfolio strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. “The Japanese stock market is not so different from the global trend, and monetary policy that comes out from the US and Europe is much more important for Japanese equities.”

Key stock gauges in India completed their worst weekly declines in more than two years as spiraling inflation and rate hikes by central banks dampened the outlook for business recovery.     The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 0.3% to 51,360.42 in Mumbai, bringing its weekly decline to 5.4%, the most since May 2020. The NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped 0.4% on Friday, taking its tumble to 5.6%. Tata Consultancy Services lost 1.7% and was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which had 22 of the 30 member stocks trade lower. Fifteen of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of oil and gas companies.  Among central bank monetary-policy measures this week, the US Federal Reserve made its biggest increase in policy rates since 1994. India’s markets “are largely taking cues from the global markets, in absence of any major domestic event,” Ajit Mishra, vice-president research at Religare Broking Ltd. wrote in a note. Foreign institutional investors have withdrawn $25.7 billion from Indian stocks this year through June 15, and the sell-off is headed for its ninth consecutive month. “We reiterate our negative view on markets and suggest continuing with the ‘sell on rise’ approach,” according to the note.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index rose by around 0.4% as the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Swiss franc. Treasury yields rose by up to 9 bps, led by the front end. The yen was the worst G-10 performer and slumped as much as 1.8% to 134.63 per dollar after the Bank of Japan kept policy on hold, defying speculation it would follow its global peers and move toward tightening. The BOJ made a rare reference to the currency market, saying it needed to watch its impact on the economy and markets. The euro fell below $1.05 before paring, after touching an almost one-week high yesterday. European bond yields fell and investors rushed back to Italian debt for a third day after ECB President Christine Lagarde pledged that borrowing costs of more indebted nations in the euro-area won’t be allowed to spiral out of control. Sterling eased against a broadly stronger dollar, giving up some of its sharp gains made the previous day, when the Bank of England’s pledge to take a more aggressive stance against inflation boosted the UK currency. Market awaits speeches by BOE policymakers Silvana Tenreyro and Huw Pill later in the day for possible clues into the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

In rates, Treasuries are cheaper across the curve with losses led by front-end following flurry of block trade in 2-year note futures over the European session. US yields cheaper by up to 5bp across front-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s spread by 2.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.22%, cheaper by 2.5bp and underperforming bunds by 7bp Italian bonds outperform after ECB President Christine Lagarde’s pledge to support borrowing costs of indebted nations in the euro-area.  Bloomberg notes five block trades in 2-year note futures for combined 25k were posted between 3:25am ET and 4:36am ET appeared skewed toward sellers, helping front-end of the cash curve underperform. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; at least six IG issuers are said to have stood down over the past couple of days, as investors wait for market calm before re-launching deals.

The German cash curve bull steepens, trading richer by ~12bps in 5s. Gilts bull flatten, with 10y yields down 8bps around this week’s lows near 2.4%. US 2s10s narrow 3bps. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing ~14bps to a one-month low near 188bps.

In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 1% higher to trade near $118.75. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 0.9% while LME nickel gains 1.1%. Spot gold falls roughly $7 to trade near $1,850/oz

Bitcoin is currently modestly firmer, but the overall sessions range is in proximity to USD 20k with the current trough at USD 20.19k.

Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include US industrial production and capacity utilisation for May, along with the final Euro Area CPI reading for May. Central bankers include Fed Chair Powell, the ECB’s Simkus and the BoE’s Tenreyro and Pill. Of note, Jerome Powell gives welcome remarks before the Inaugural Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar at 845am ET. He is not expected to discuss monetary policy.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.0% to 3,703.75
  • MXAP down 1.2% to 157.22
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 521.87
  • Nikkei down 1.8% to 25,963.00
  • Topix down 1.7% to 1,835.90
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 21,075.00
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,316.79
  • Sensex little changed at 51,457.72
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 6,474.80
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,440.93
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 407.54
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.66%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.0502
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $120.35/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $120.39/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,849.84
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.75% to 104.41

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • A small tweak to the BOJ’s bond purchase plan this week blew up an arbitrage strategy popular with overseas investors known as the basis trade. It exacerbated a supply shortage of government bonds that has ramped up pressure on domestic financial institutions, leading them to turn to the BOJ for help to relieve the strain
  • President Joe Biden said a US recession isn’t inevitable and acknowledged that aides warned him about the inflationary risk of his flagship relief bill, while insisting that he won’t soften his stance on Russia even if it costs him re-election
  • The WTO clinched a historic package of accords including on vaccine production and fishery subsidies, ending the trade body’s seven-year negotiating drought
  • China’s local governments are caught in an unexpectedly severe budget squeeze, creating a dilemma for officials over whether to boost debt or tolerate weaker economic growth

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks mostly suffered firm losses amid the global risk-aversion after the recent flurry of central bank rate increases and with weak data in the US stoking recession fears. ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in tech and the commodity-related sectors, although gold miners have weathered the storm after the recent upside in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 was pressured and failed to benefit from the BoJ decision to keep policy settings unchanged. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. pared opening losses amid virus-related optimism after Beijing reported zero cases outside of quarantine and with US-China defence meetings showing signs of cooling tensions.

Top Asian News

  • China in Talks With Qatar for Gas Field Stakes, Reuters Says
  • Kuroda Deepens BOJ’s Outlier Status, Keeping Pressure on Yen
  • ByteDance Disbands Shanghai Games Studio in Expansion Setback
  • BOJ Offers to Buy Cheapest-to-Deliver JGBs for Extended Time
  • Gold Heads for Weekly Drop as Traders Weigh Rate Hikes, Growth

European bourses are now firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%, as performance picks up following a mixed open amid comparably quiet newsflow. Stateside, US futures are performing similarly, ES +1.0%, though the complex is cognisant of commentary from Chair Powell later. Note, today is Quad Witching; recently, GS’ Rubner highlighted “literally massive” USD 3.2tln notional open interest of US listed options which expire on June 17th, writing that the passing of this may allow the market to move more freely.

Top European News

  • UK is to set out new data rules which diverge from the EU on Friday as it seeks to ease pressure on businesses, while it believes the new rules will maintain free flow of data from Europe and does not expect the EU to object to its data reforms, according to Reuters.
  • German Finance Minister Lindner told ECB President Lagarde that the ECB’s talk regarding fragmentation threatens to dent confidence, according to FT.
  • Hungarian Chief of Staff Gulyas says the idea of a global minimum tax is not accepted by the Hungarian government.

Central Banks

  • BoJ kept policy settings unchanged as expected with rates at -0.10% and QQE with yield curve control maintained to target 10yr JGB yields at around 0% with the decision on YCC made via an 8-1 vote as Kataoka dissented. BoJ repeated its April guidance that it will offer to buy 10yr JGBs at 0.25% every business day unless it is highly likely that no bids will be submitted and it also reiterated guidance on policy bias that it will take additional easing steps without hesitation as needed with an eye on the pandemic’s impact on the economy. Furthermore, the BoJ said the economy is picking up as a trend though some weakness has been seen and they must carefully watch the impact of FX moves on Japan’s economy and prices.
  • BoJ’s Kuroda says upward pressure is being seen in bond yields, and it is important for FX to move stable reflecting fundamentals, no change to the concept that YCC strongly supports the economic recovery; does not see a limit in YCC. Recent rapid JPY weakness is a weakness for the economy.. Does not see a need for further policy easing now. Not thinking about raising the cap on the BoJ’s long-term yield target above 0.25%, as it could result in higher yields and weaken the effect of monetary easing.
  • BoJ purchases JPY 70.1bln in ETFs.
  • BoJ offers to purchase the cheapest-to-deliver issuance for an extended time as of June 20th.
  • ECB’s Knot says that several 50bps rate increases are possible in the event that inflation worsens, via BNR; does not see hikes reaching 200bp before early-2023.
  • BoE’s Pill says markets will have to make their own judgement on whether the BoE is considering a 50bp hike, via Bloomberg TV; stresses the conditionality around the inclusion of “forcefully” in the statement, in the context of “if necessary”. Trying to signal that we may need to act further, looking at the persistence of inflationary pressure. Price pressures becoming embedded would be a trigger for more aggressive BoE action.

FX

  • Yen recoils after racking up big risk averse gains as BoJ sticks rigidly to ultra accommodative stance with additional measures to maintain YCC, USD/JPY hovers just under 135.00 vs 131.49 low on Thursday.
  • Buck benefits after extending post-FOMC retreat in wake of weak US data and pronounced bounce in Treasuries, DXY extends recovery to 104.540 from 103.410 low.
  • Franc maintains SNB hike momentum to rally further across the board, USD/CHF around 0.9650 compared to par-plus peaks earlier in the week.
  • Euro underpinned by decent option expiry interest and hawkish ECB commentary, but Aussie undermined as Government gives authorities power to stop coal exports; EUR/USD on the 1.0500 handle and above 1+ bln rolling off between 1.0500-1.0495, AUD/USD capped just under 0.7000.
  • Kiwi gleans some traction from a rise in NZ manufacturing PMI and RBNZ rate hike calls; NZD/USD straddles 0.6350, AUD/NZD cross sub-1.1050.
  • Lira lags following latest CBRT survey showing higher inflation forecasts and USD/TRY rate, latter at 18.8874 by year end vs 17.5682 previously and circa 17.3200 at present.

Fixed Income

  • Debt extends intraday ranges as volatility remains high on Friday.
  • Bunds veer from 142.56 to 144.99, Gilts between 111.83 and 112.91 and the 10 year T-note within a 116-19/115.28+ range.
  • Hawkish comments from ECB’s Knot largely discounted as EZ periphery bonds outperform on anti-fragmentation dynamic, but BoE’s Pill rattles Sonia strip.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are currently set to end the week with gains in excess of USD 1.00/bbl overall, though the benchmarks reside towards the mid-point of the over USD 11.00/bbl range for the week.
  • Newsflow has been comparably limited but primarily focused on familiar themes.
  • US Energy Secretary called an emergency meeting with oil refiners next week to discuss steps companies can take to increase refining capacity and output, according to Reuters citing a DoE spokesperson.
  • White House is reportedly considering fuel export limits as pump prices surge and options such as waiving anti-smog rules are also being discussed, according to Bloomberg.
  • Qatar Energy set August Al-Shaheen crude term price at a premium of USD 9.24/bbl above Dubai quotes which is the highest in 3 months, according to traders cited by Reuters.
  • Brazil’s Petrobras is to announce a fuel price increase today, according to Reuters citing local press.
  • China’s national oil majors are reportedly in advanced discussions with Qatar around investment in North Field East LNG and for long-term contractual purchases of LNG, according to Reuters sources.
  • Australia has invoked measures to give authorities the power to prevent coal exports if needed in an attempt to avert the risk of blackouts, according to the FT.
  • Spot gold is rangebound in European hours having successfully surpassed the cluster of DMAs between USD 1843-1848/oz during Thursday’s blockbuster session.

US Event Calendar

  • 09:15: May Capacity Utilization, est. 79.2%, prior 79.0%
  • 09:15: May Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%
  • 09:15: May Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 1.1%
  • 10:00: May Leading Index, est. -0.4%, prior -0.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to buck the global trend of monetary tightening, as this morning the central bank decided to maintain its purchases of government bonds and equities. The decision was widely anticipated but the BOJ indicated that it must “pay due attention” to foreign exchange markets, following the yen’s rapid weakening to its lowest level in 24 years earlier this week. The Yen has weakened around -1.3% to 134/USD as we type. Meanwhile, Japan’s benchmark 10yr bond yields hit a six-year high of 0.268% at one point, moving beyond the BOJ’s 0.25% cap ahead of the policy decision. However, yields retreated to the 0.25% after its daily unlimited fixed-rate purchasing operations.

This just continues what has been a very expensive week for the BoJ in terms of JGB QE after having had to buy $9.6tn yen worth. As one of our Asian FX strategists Tim Baker highlighted this morning, that’s US$72bn. Tim highlighted that this is almost what the Fed and ECB were doing in an entire month last year, for economies 5-3x larger than Japan’s. Japan’s QE this week has been running more than 20x the pace of the Fed’s QE in 2021, adjusted for the size of the economy. Can they continue to hold this line? You wouldn’t think they could but it depends on global yields and central banks, the Yen and Japanese inflation. See my CoTD (link here) on this earlier this week. Watch out for the BoJ press conference after this goes to print this morning for any hints as to how determined they are to continue their policy settings.

The BoJ caps an array of central bank meetings over recent days, and markets have experienced another rout over the last 24 hours as multiple headlines added to investors fears about an imminent recession. It marked a big shift from just a day earlier, when the initial focus after Chair Powell’s press conference had been on his comment (when referring to +75bps) that he didn’t “expect moves of this size to be common”. But futures swiftly turned negative as growing doubts were cast on how firm that commitment really was, not least since we’ve all seen just how swiftly the Fed have shifted posture over the last week in response to worse-than-expected data. On top of that, the latest decisions by the SNB and the BoE (more on which below) only added to the hawkish drumbeat that much higher rates are in the offing, whilst weak US housing data served to aggravate those fears about an imminent growth slowdown.

With all said and done, you were hard-pressed to find a major asset that didn’t lose ground yesterday. The major equity indices slumped heavily on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (-3.24%) losing more than -3% for the second time this week, as it also hit its lowest level since late 2020. Indeed, just 14 companies in the entire index moved higher on the day. Elsewhere, the NASDAQ saw an even larger decline, falling -4.08% to have now lost more than a third of its value since its all-time closing peak back in November. It’s lost -9.96% since Friday’s CPI and -6.12% this week. And it was a similar story in Europe too, as the STOXX 600 (-2.47%) fell to a one-year low of its own.

Whilst equities were selling off, sovereign bonds continued to trade with elevated volatility, a function of continued central bank surprises, murky forward guidance, and heightened uncertainty around the near-to-medium-term outlook as economic data gets worse. In short it was a wild, wild ride yesterday. The sell-off initially accelerated after the SNB became the latest central bank to surprise. They hiked rates for the first time in 15 years, executing a 50bps move, combined with a change in FX policy, that our strategist Robin Winkler argues marks a once-in-a-decade policy regime shift (link here). In turn, that led to a massive reaction in the Swiss Franc, which strengthened by +2.91% against the US Dollar on the day in its biggest daily appreciation since 2015.

Then we had the Bank of England, where they hiked rates by +25bps as widely expected, with 3 of the 9 committee members continuing to vote for a larger 50bp increment. Notably, their statement sent a stronger signal on inflation, saying that the Committee would be “particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and will if necessary act forcefully in response.” In turn, that saw investors reappraise the path of future rate hikes in a more hawkish direction, and are now expecting more than +150bps worth of hikes over the next 3 meetings, so equivalent to at least a 50bp move at each one. Our UK economist writes in his reaction note (link here) that he expects the BoE to hike by 50bps in August and September now, which for reference would be the largest single hikes since they gained operational independence in 1997.

Against that backdrop, sovereign bond yields whipped around yet again. European yields were much higher on tighter policy and then Treasury yields moved higher in sympathy during European trading but gradually fell after another batch of underwhelming housing data lent new fears that growth was on unstable footing. Yields on 10yr Treasuries fell -8.9bps to 3.20%, but at their intraday peak they’d been up +20.7bps, so some sizeable moves in both directions. The move in nominal yields traced real yields, which were as high as +21.7bps intraday at the 10yr point, before finishing the day just +1.1bps higher. 10yr breakevens fell -10.4bps on the prospect of slower growth, which drove nominal yields lower on the day. In Asia, this morning, 10yr yields are witnessing a reversal with yields up +4.33bps to 3.24% while 2yr yields (+6bps) also moved higher to 3.15% as I type. Our US rates strategists have updated their views in the face of some large forces in both directions with the 10yr now expected to hit 3.85%. They also updated their year-end 2yr call to 3.85%, so a flat curve. See the full update here.

Meanwhile in Europe, 10yr bunds gained +7.2bps (+28.3bps at the peak) in a very choppy session. However, there was a considerable tightening in peripheral spreads for a second day running, with the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields down -13.7bps to 202bps, which followed comments from Italian central bank governor Visco that the spread should be under 150bps based on economic fundamentals. The heightened uncertainty and wild swings in yields also translated to heightened currency volatility, where the Euro traded in its widest intraday range since March 2020, which was as low as -0.60% and as strong as +1.50% against the dollar before ultimately appreciating +1.01%.

As mentioned, sentiment was further dampened by weak US housing data yesterday, with both housing starts and building permits in May falling by even more than expected. Housing starts were down to an annualised rate of 1.549m (vs. 1.693m expected), their lowest level in over a year, whilst building permits were down to an annualised rate of 1.695m (vs. 1.778m expected). We also got a sign of how tighter monetary policy was affecting the market, with Freddie Mac’s data showing that a 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending yesterday rose to 5.78% (vs. 5.23% in the previous week). That’s the highest level since November 2008, as well as the largest weekly increase in the rate since 1987. And it just shows how the much more rapid pace of Fed hikes now expected by investors over the last week is already filtering its way through to the real economy.

Those moves lower in the US and European equities have been echoed in Asian markets this morning. The Nikkei (-1.59%) is the largest underperformer with the Kospi (-1.08%) also trading sharply lower. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.78%) is recovering from earlier losses while mainland Chinese stocks also turning around with the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) and CSI (+0.26%) both trading up.

Outside of Asia, stock futures in the DMs are bouncing with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.52%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.67%) and DAX (+0.31%) all heading higher.

Looking forward, Russian President Putin will be giving a speech today at the St Petersburg Economic Forum, which his press secretary Peskov has tried to build anticipation for, and could offer a flavour of how combative the Kremlin plans to be in its international approach. That came as German Chancellor Scholz, French President Macron and Italian PM Draghi endorsed Ukraine’s EU candidacy in a visit to the country yesterday. Otherwise, European natural gas futures pared back their significant increases in the morning to close -1.94% lower, marking a change in direction after their massive increases over the previous 2 sessions.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US industrial production and capacity utilisation for May, along with the final Euro Area CPI reading for May. Central bankers include Fed Chair Powell, the ECB’s Simkus and the BoE’s Tenreyro and Pill.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.02 PTS OR 0.61%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 462.78 PTS OR 2.13%    /The Nikkei closed UP 105.04 OR 0.40%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.03%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7149    /Oil DOWN TO 113.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 116.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7149 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7204: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B  JAPAN

Yen Tumbles As BoJ Refuses To Change Ultra-Easy Monetary Policy

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 11:00 PM

The yen weakened on Friday after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary stance, increasing policy divergence with its global peers.

“While the decision was within expectations, those who want to challenge the BOJ will continue to do so, putting focus on Japan’s upper house election,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities.

“I doubt if the challenge will pick up immediately after today’s decision, but the battle will resume in July.”

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continued to signal a dovish stance, but the BOJ did make a rare reference to the currency market, saying it needed to watch its impact on the economy and markets.

“In this situation, it is necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan’s economic activity and prices,”  the central bank said in a statement, referring to risks from commodities, Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and overseas economic developments.

The 10Y JGB Yield is trading at around 27bps (2bps above the BoJ’s YCC upper bound), while JGB futures are signaling the break is imminent still…

That is the highest 10Y yield since January 2016.

As Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities, notes: 

“If the BOJ were to be pushed into a corner, it would come from the yen weakness progressing further or the proportion of BOJ holdings of 10-year bonds approaching 100%. Neither is taking place as of now.”

The immediate reaction is obvious – dumping of the yen as The BoJ is left to provide unlimited support/defense for the JGB market in th eface of unrelenting pressure sending yields higher…

The simple reality is – The BoJ has no way out of this… tick, tock!

3c CHINA

CHINA/

Chinese Banks Freeze Billions In Deposits: Officials Use Health QR Code To Bar Protestors

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 10:20 PM

Chinese local banks are freezing deposits. Protestors cannot go near banks as their health app for COVID-19 turns red. Authorities provided no explanation…

As The Epoch Times’ Dorothy Li reports, several depositors told The Epoch Times on June 14 that the health code on their COVID-19 app turned red as soon as they scanned venue barcodes at Zhengzhou, the provincial capital city of central China’s Henan Province.

A red health code – indicating a potential COVID-19 patient – means the carrier is barred access to all public places from public toilets to shops to train stations, and faced mandatory quarantine in centralized isolation centers.

They are among tens of thousands of bank depositors who have fought to recover their savings for more than two months. The crisis started in April when at least four lenders in Henan froze cash withdrawals, citing internal system upgrades. But customers said neither these banks nor officials have since offered any information on why or how long, prompting angry protests outside the office of the banking regulator in Zhengzhou in May.

An estimated 1 million customers were reportedly affected, which has left many residents’ life savings at stake and patients unable to pay for regular medical care.

Depositors have been cut off for at least 39.7 billion yuan ($5.91 billion), according to Sanlian LifeWeek, a state-run magazine.

Aggrieved depositors across the country planned another protest in Zhengzhou on June 13 to demand an answer, though previous gatherings were met with silence from local authorities and violence from plain-clothes police.

Their plan, however, was thwarted again as their health code turned red at the city’s train stations or highway entrance.

A red code indicates the highest level of risk, meaning the person tests positive, has been close to a COVID-19 patient, or has visited high COVID-risk areas in the past 14 days. Residents with red code face two weeks of centralized isolation.

“They [officials] are like robbers,” said a third bank customer who was stopped by police at Zhengzhou train station on June 12 and required to leave.

“We’re all legal depositors … Why couldn’t we even have an explanation?”

“It’s so scary,” one user commented.

“If the health code is abused … it could be putting digital handcuffs on us. Everyone will become a prisoner from now on and could be stopped anywhere, anytime.”

Read more here…

end

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

UK/

40,000 UK Rail Workers To Strike Next Week, Will Paralyze Transportation Network

FRIDAY, JUN 17, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Tens of thousands of railway workers are preparing to strike across Britain and may cause transportation chaos next week as they demand higher wages amid the worst inflation in four decades. 

Financial Times reports that 40,000 workers across Network Rail Limited, the owner and infrastructure manager of most of the railway networks in the UK, and 13 train operating companies, will strike next week for higher pay and against job cuts in one of the most significant strikes to hit UK railways in three decades.

Transportation turmoil begins next week as Network Rail warned only 4,500 of the regular 20,000 daily trains would be operational — hours of operation will be reduced to 11 hours per day, between 0730 to 1830. Large parts of the railway network will be closed. 

Network Rail lays out a map of the affected service areas that span the country. 

“Make no mistake, the level of service we will be able to offer will be significantly compromised and passengers need to take that into account and to plan ahead and only travel if it’s really necessary to do so,” Network Rail boss Andrew Haines told BBC.

BBC describes the planned walkout as the “biggest rail strike in modern history” and comes one week after RMT and Network Rail couldn’t agree on higher pay for workers. 

Haines said Network Rail expects the strike to cost up to £150m in lost revenue. 

“Once we have taken the pain of next week we will have around £150mn less money available to us as a system. The Treasury will either have to decide to fund that . . . or we will have to make more savings,” he told FT.

Train strikes, record petrol prices at the pump, soaring energy and food bills, and overall inflation spiking to four-decade highs appear to be reminiscent of the stagflation years of the 1970s. 

Earlier Thursday, the Bank of England hiked rates for the 5th straight time, raising interest rates by 25bps to 1.25% to curb inflation. We know that inflation is sticky, and rate hikes bring forward UK recession risks. 

END

END

EU/NATURAL GAS

UK/EU

END

END

HOLLAND/FRANCE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

end

END

RUSSIA/USA

 

UK

end

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Pfizer Stops Enrollment In COVID-Pill Trial After Latest Lousy Results

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, JUN 17, 2022 – 09:00 AM

Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

Pfizer has announced it will stop enrollment in a clinical trial for Paxlovid – its COVID-19 antiviral pill – for standard-risk COVID-19 patients after the latest results suggested the drug did not reduce symptoms or hospitalizations and deaths to a statistically significant degree.

Paxlovid, which consists of two different antiviral drugs – nirmatrelvir and ritonavir – is currently approved or authorized for conditional or emergency use in more than 65 countries, including the United States, to treat COVID-19 patients at high risk of severe illness, including hospitalization or death.

Pfizer said on June 14 that it will “cease enrollment into the EPIC-SR trial due to low rate of hospitalization or death in the standard-risk population.”

However, the company said it will still include the new data in its upcoming application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to seek full approval for Paxlovid to be prescribed for high-risk COVID-19 patients.

Standard-risk patients refers to COVID-19 patients who don’t have risk factors for severe disease. They can be vaccinated or unvaccinated.

The United States has spent more than $10 billion to order from Pfizer 20 million courses of Paxlovid.

Additionally, The White House has been seeking for more funds from Congress to support purchasing more of the antiviral pill as well as other treatments and vaccine booster doses.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), warned in late May that some people may experience a rebound in COVID-19 symptoms after taking Paxlovid – meaning they may experience symptoms again after having had their symptoms resolved, or test positive for COVID-19 after having tested negative.

Read more here…

GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

end

VACCINE INJURY//

Vaccine Impact

U.S. Farmers Issue Dire Warnings of Looming Food Shortages as Most Americans are Clueless as to How Their Food is Produced and Unprepared for What’s Coming

June 16, 2022 6:22 pm

Unless you have a farmer in your family, or in your circle of friends and contacts, chances are that you are among the millions of people in the United States that seldom give thought to how the food you buy and eat is produced. Ask the typical American where the food on their table comes from, and probably 99.9% of them will answer: the grocery store. The grocery store is a modern-day retail outlet that most of our forefathers did not enjoy. Prior to the industrial age post WWII, most neighborhoods had local businesses and farmers who supplied the bulk of that community’s food, from the milkman who delivered dairy products, to the town butcher who processed meat, to the town baker who produced products from grains, etc. There was no one-stop shop where one could pick up multiple products called “groceries.” Few understand that the modern day grocery store is dependent on a highly technical system that is interdependent on many inputs into the supply chain, and can easily be ground to a halt. If you have lived through local natural disasters, like a hurricane, or an earthquake, you probably have had a taste of what it can be like when everyone all of sudden needs to buy groceries all at the same time, and then learn that the grocery store shelves are bare. Panic buying can cause similar disruptions, and most of us got a taste, and that’s all it was, a “taste”, of this in the early days of the COVID-19 lockdowns. But almost all of the people alive in the U.S. today have not experienced real hardship that produces hunger and starvation, such as what this nation experienced in the 1930s prior to WWII during the “dust bowl” as the nation suffered an economic depression, along with massive food shortages due to crop failures. We have had economic downturns since WWII, but in general the U.S. has seen prosperous times for over 70 years now, and the current generations alive have become so dependent on the conveniences that modern technology has brought us, that they just assume it will always be there, and fail to realize just how fragile that technology is. Today, less than 1% of the population of the United States now produces food for the other 99%, thanks to the technological age, so when farmers, particularly farmers with contracts in the commodity food industry, which is by far the majority, speak out with warnings about what is ahead, it is time to sit up and listen, and realize that if you cannot buy food from your usual local grocery outlets, that there will be no one to bail you out if you have not prepared for such a situation. For the rest of this article I am publishing some news today that farmers themselves are reporting, and everyone needs to take heed and prepare accordingly.

Read More…


Chinese Protesters Demanding Bank Funds Returned Reportedly Stopped by Health Code Apps Turning Red

June 16, 2022 7:05 pm

Earlier this month (June, 2022) we reported how over 1 million residents in China’s Henan Province were prevented from withdrawing their money from their bank, with many losing their entire life savings. Now it is being reported this week that as many protesters were heading to Henan province’s capital Zhengzhou to demand to get their money back, Chinese health authorities used their COVID-19 tracking app to turn up “red,” forcing them into quarantine, in order to stop the protests. This is what happens when citizens freely give up their freedom to comply with government medical tyranny and let them track their movements and health status.

Read More…



Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabo: We Are In A Period Of Inverse FX Wars, Where Everyone Needs A Stronger Currency… Real Wars Lean In That Direction

FRIDAY, JUN 17, 2022 – 12:59 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Thursday was another crazy day in markets. The S&P was -3.3% and is now -23.1% year-to-date while the Nasdaq was -4.1% and is -32% YTD. The equity bulls are in a ball hugging their knees in the corner, shaking their heads and staring into space.

US Treasury yields were all over the place: up again (nearly 18bps), then hugely down (almost 30bps) to close 9bp lower overall. Japanese 10-year JGBs briefly got as high as 0.285% before Yield Curve Control (YCC) controlled them again. In Europe, we saw German 2s rise 23bps, then drop 15bps from that high, while 10s went up 29bps, then rallied 20bps from that point. In Italy, 2s started at 1.74%, leaped 13bps, slumped 16bps, rose 10bps, and fell 9bps to close at 1.72%, while 10s started at 3.76%, rose 22bps, but ended back at 3.74%. Clearly the market is (in)digesting what the ECB is cooking up re: anti-fragmentation actions for next month.

The US dollar had a bad, bad day due to chaos in other markets.

Oil was down big, at first, with Brent tumbling from $120 to below $116, but then bounced to $120 before closing around $119. US Energy Secretary Graham is to meet refining executives on 23 June: hopefully she will have read the explanation they just sent to President Biden explaining how the energy market actually works. Other commodities were mixed, with metals down mostly a little, but softs up on the day as the dollar dipped – which alongside oil refusing to stay down, is still a warning for those still hoping the Fed can ease off quickly.

Indeed, as my colleagues and I were discussing yesterday, let’s presume the Fed tightens to the point where we get recession and deflation, i.e., CPI goes from nearly 10% y-o-y to -2%. Then the Fed eases monetary policy again aggressively while the supply side remains constrained: wouldn’t you just get 4-5% inflation straight away, taking base consumer prices to even higher highs? A projected glide-path back to 2% CPI “because DSGE models” and “because no geopolitics” risks being as inaccurate as “inflation is transitory”. That implies risks of higher rates ahead, and for longer. “Higher for longer” is not what we are used to in markets, is it?

On crypto, that cutting-too-early scenario might mean a 2024 bid. But for now, it’s “Do you want DeFis with that?” for holders likely to soon boost the size of the US labor market again.

One of the proximate causes of the sell-off yesterday was not just post-Fed 75bps gloom, but even the stolid Swiss rolling us by hiking an unexpected 50bps. It wasn’t quite as large a market shock as the SNB’s dropping of the CHF peg a few years ago, but it was still big. Indeed, the SNB not only took their key rate closer to positive territory but underlined that CHF has depreciated in trade-weighted terms and is “no longer highly valued,” so imported inflation has increased: that implies CHF needs to be more highly valued to deal with inflation; and that suggests the SNB will be selling, not buying US stocks and other assets, now they aren’t needed to keep CHF down.

In short, we are in a period of inverse FX wars, where everyone now needs a stronger currencyActual wars naturally lean in that direction. The same post-2008 finance generation who think FX war is actual war(!) again don’t understand how things really work. It isn’t about ‘export competitiveness’ in the face of supply constraints and bullets flying. It’s about cheaper key imports to fight, and to allow low enough borrowing rates to fund long-term war spending; or it’s about running a trade surplus, and so a strong currency as a result, which allows money-printing (i.e., MMT) to pay for said defence spending. That is to say we are in an inflationary, FX, and geopolitical reversal of what we knew as the ‘new normal’ – and all three are linked.

Quite literally on that front, France’s, Italy’s, and Germany’s leaders all visited Kyiv yesterday and jointly pledged Ukraine would be accepted as a candidate for EU membership ahead of the expected EU decision on that matter today. If so, it makes the battle taking place more existential for the EU, as it is obviously is for Ukraine. Yet as EU gas prices spike again thanks to Russia, which says it has a perfectly-good Nord Stream 2 to replace the suddenly malfunctioning Nord Stream 1, cynical geostrategists note either the EU steps up the supply of military support to Ukraine, or it risks finding that while it wanted to offer it EU membership, sadly it is no longer in a physical position to accept it. In short, as on rates, real action now matters, not jawboning.

As such, don’t expect the recent dollar weakness to last. The Fed is moving 75bps while others are doing 25bps or 50bps. And if a US recession is coming, a global recession is coming too. While the US will suffer, net exporters with less fiscal flexibility will suffer far more. Risk will be very off in very many places.

Indeed, the BOE only offered up a feeble 25bps hike to 1.25% at their meeting. GBP/USD was still up from a low of 1.2050 to nearly 1.24 at its peak just because everyone, temporarily, wanted out of the dollar, but this won’t last. As Stefan Koopman notes, the MPC also updated its guidance, and is no longer telling markets “some degree of further tightening” is needed in order to bring inflation back to target, but that “the Committee would be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and would if necessary act forcefully in response.” He adds that this change in guidance has sown confusion: it is not 100% clear why it was made in the first place, and it is not 100% clear if this is dovish (i.e. only forceful action if there is more persistent evidence) or hawkish (i.e. a signal that 50bps increases are on the cards if m/m rates of inflation don’t fall soon). For now, markets are inclined to believe the latter.

He concludes, “We expect one more 25bps hike in August, before the MPC takes a pause and re-assesses. The risk is that the market will not allow the central bank to pause… This places the central bank in a perilous spot: if it does too little, imported cost pressures keep flowing in, if it does too much, it will only intensify the recession. Welcome to Stagflation Nation!” At least in that regard, it truly is Global Britain.

Today, the market turns to the BOJ, where the betting is increasingly that they too will have to abandon their YCC policy and let the 10-year JGB yield rip – which will let JPY rip and destroy lots of carry trades people won’t be expecting until they do. When that unwind happens there will also be cross-selling of whatever is still liquid and not too beaten-up. In short, the BOJ may join the rest of the central banking world today in tightening policy one way or another, creating yet more havoc. Indeed, at time of writing, the 10-year JGB was already above the 0.25% target again, as people again tried the long-time ‘widow-maker’ trade.

Yet recent comments from Finance Minister Suzuki suggest the BOJ may still stick to their guns. If so, they are pulling even further on a monetary elastic band that will hurt far more when it does inevitably come snapping back the other way.

Happy Friday. Try not to get Swiss rolled as the market embraces a yen for change.

7. OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

Australia’s Energy Crisis Worsens As Gov’t Ask People To Keep Lights Off To Avert Blackouts

THURSDAY, JUN 16, 2022 – 11:20 PM

Australia’s energy minister asked Sydney and the New South Wales (eastern part of the country) residents to turn off lights and energy-intensive appliances in the evening to prevent power blackouts due to an ongoing energy crunch, The Independent reports. 

The federal energy minister, Chris Bowen, asked residents in a televised address to turn off energy-intensive devices between “6 to 8 [pm]” to mitigate risks of a spike in power during peak hours. He pointed to several offline coal-fired plants because of maintenance and unexpected issues. 

Reuters notes that 65% of eastern Australia’s power is generated by coal, but more than a quarter of that capacity is offline. 

Wholesale electricity prices have soared and on Monday exceeded the capped price of A$300 per megawatt-hour. Above A$300, coal power generation plants lost money and forced some operators to shutter power generation units, thus removing energy capacity off the grid and sending prices even higher. The rise of power prices began when coal prices jumped following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Bowen snapped at a journalist when asked if more coal power is the answer the energy crunch. 

“The situation in recent days has posed challenges to the entire energy industry, and suspending the market would simplify operations during the significant outages across the energy supply chain,” Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) chief executive Daniel Westerman said in a statement.

“It was understandable generators had held back supply in light of the price caps along with unplanned outages and supply challenges with coal and gas, but having to direct generators to provide supply had made it impossible to maintain normal market operations,” Westerman said. 

Australia’s dysfunctional power grid hasn’t stopped at coal. In the last three weeks, declining solar output and periods of low wind have created power generation challenges, which have placed a heavier burden on fossil fuel generators.

Also, the coldest start to a winter season in decades is boosting heating demand and worsening the problem. 

Australia better find a way to bring more coal power plants online or risk widespread blackouts amid high demand because of the winter chill. 

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0399 DOWN  0.0059 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 132.79   DOWN 1.266 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2149 DOWN   0.0029

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 20.02 POINTS UP 0.61%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 262.78 PTS OR 2.12%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 31.3%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 262.78 PTS OR 2.12%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.02 PTS UP 0.61% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  0.03% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 105.04 OR 0.40%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1816.50

silver:$21.36

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 104.91  DOWN 3  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

 FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.68%  DOWN 14  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.215% DOWN 11     AND 2/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.73%// DOWN 12   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.858  DOWN 28   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +1.588%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0472 DOWN  0.0078    or 78 basis points

USA/Japan: 135.10 DOWN 2.678  OR YEN DOWN  268  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2196 UP 0.0154 OR 154  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0090 OR 90 BASIS pts  to 1.3045

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7167  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.7187

TURKISH LIRA:  17.32  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.215

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 8  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.227% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.294 DOWN 10 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 104.66 UP 68   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 28.73 PTS OR  0.41%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 87.77  POINTS OR 0.67%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 4.56 PTS OR 0.06% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 67.80 OR 0.84%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 62.23 PTS OR  0.24%

WTI Oil price 111.47   12: EST

Brent Oil:  114.30  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  56.41  UP  1/10        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.648

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0494 DOWN   .0052   OR  DOWN 52 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2213 DOWN .01365  or  137 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.00 UP 2.583//YEN DOWN 258 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3021 UP .0061 (CDN dollar DOWN 69 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 110.00

Brent OIL:  113.73

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.244 DOWN 6 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.298  DOWN 6  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.33

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  56.41 DOWN  UP 1/10 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: down 39.29 .13 PTS 

NASDAQ 100 UP 138.42 PTS OR 1.24%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 31.00 DOWN 1.95 PTS (5.42)%

GLD: 171.26 DOWN 21/95PTS OR 1.14%

SLV/ 19.98 DOWN .6 PTS OR 1.28%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

.

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

ii) USA DATA

The U.S. economy is slowing and likely to soften further, leading indicators show

June 17, 2022 at 10:22 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

U.S. leading economic index drops 0.4% in May

The numbers: The U.S. leading index fell in May by 0.4% for the second month in a row, indicating the economy has slowed in response to high inflation and rising interest rates.

The decline matched the forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse.

Big picture: The U.S. economy is still expanding, but stiffer headwinds are starting to hold it back.

Inflation jumped to a 40-year high in May and the Federal Reserve is raising interest sharply to try to slow the economy and ease the upward pressure on prices.

If inflation doesn’t begin to slow later in the year, economists warn, higher rates could eventually tilt the U.S. economy into recession.

Key details: The leading economic index fell largely because of declining stock prices, a slowdown in home building and falling consumer confidence.

A measure of current economic condition rose 0.2% in May, the Conference Board, the publisher of the report, said Friday.

Americans are still somewhat confident in the economy right now, but they are more worried about the future.

The so-called lagging index — a look of sorts in the rearview mirror — climbed by 0.8%. But that was before inflation hit a fresh 40-year high of 8.6%.

Looking ahead: “The index is still near a historic high, but the US LEI suggests weaker economic activity is likely in the near term — and tighter monetary policy is poised to dampen economic growth even further,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the board.

end

END

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Amid Surging Inflation, Inventory-Swamped Retailers Push Big Discounts

FRIDAY, JUN 17, 2022 – 06:55 AM

Though consumers are being hammered by price inflation at gas stations and grocery stores, they may be surprised by what they find at electronics, clothing, furniture and appliance stores. Swamped by excess inventory, many major retailers are offering big-time discounts on a variety of consumer goods.  

One such retailer is Target, which has twice cut its profitability outlook in recent weeks. In its June 7 warning, Target projected its second-quarter operating margin would be roughly 2%, well less than half the 5.3% the company projected in May.  

At the same time, Target said it was “planning several actions in the second quarter, including additional markdowns, removing excess inventory and canceling orders.” 

“We thought it was prudent for us to be decisive, act quickly, get out in front of this, address and optimize our inventory in the second quarter — take those actions necessary to remove the excess inventory and set ourselves up to continue to be guest-relevant with our assortment,” Target CEO Brian Cornell told CNBC.

Last month, inventories at mega-retailers surged 26% over the previous year. Idle product is a double whammy, since it also entails higher storage costs.  

Retailers’ sales urgency translates into better deals on items like furniture, home decor, clothes, televisions, computers and kitchen appliances.

WalMart, Best Buy, Gap and Urban Outfitters are among those reportedly cutting prices, but discounts aren’t confined to major chains. Last week, a Fred’s Appliances store in Missoula, Montana was asking just $1,799 for a package of four GE appliances—a refrigerator, range, dishwasher and microwave.   

Today’s widespread inventory problems started in 2021, as Bloomberg explains:

Big retailers rushed to build up inventories last year amid soaring consumer demand and transportation bottlenecks—going so far in some cases as to rent their own cargo ships. Now, they’re trying to figure out how to sell all their stuff. 

Several factors contributed to today’s retail inventory pile-up: 

  • Longer lead times on product deliveries forced purchasing managers to peer farther into the future when projecting their inventory needs, heightening the risk of the forecasting errors that are now manifesting themselves in retailers’ warehouses.
  • Shifting consumer needs: As the country moved out of pandemic mode, retailers found customers spent more on office wear and less on casual clothes and home goods. 
  • Lower discretionary income: In an era of $5 gas and $1 avocados, consumers forced to shell out more money to cover basic needs have less money to work with.  

That last factor may thwart retailers’ plans for a mass summer inventory clearance. Not only is consumer cashflow under pressure, but Americans’ credit card balances have mushroomed back to a record-high $867 billion. Stir in morale-sapping stock market losses and record-low consumer sentiment, and retailers may be facing a daunting task. 

END

Housing Crash Imminent: As Mortgage Rates Explode Price Cuts Soar And Buyer Demand Collapses

FRIDAY, JUN 17, 2022 – 03:20 PM

A little over a month ago, when mortgage rates were still “only” 5% we shared several devastating anecdotes from real estate agents and industry execs who validated our worst fears: US housing was imploding… fast, with subsequent observations only confirming this dire conclusion about the state of the most popular asset class among the US middle class.

Fast forward to this week when things have gone from worse to catastrophic, because with 30Y mortgage rates soaring at the fastest pace on record to above 6%, or levels last seen just before the housing bubble burst…

…. sending the average mortgage payment on a median mortgage up by almost $800 in just the past 6 months…

making housing the most unaffordable in history

… sending new home sales plunging at the fastest pace since the peak of the covid crisis after the longest negative streak since 2010…

… and homebuyer sentiment imploding to the lowest level in generations…

Which brings us to the latest housing market summaries from real-estate brokerage RedFin, which are not pretty.

The first shows that after the period of unprecedented gains for home prices and a uniformlly sellers market, has flipped, and according to Redfinthe highest share of sellers on record dropped their list price during the four weeks ending June 12 as mortgage rates shot up to levels not seen since 2008collapsing the pool of potential home shoppers.

In the Austin, Texas, and Nashville, Tennessee, metro areas, the share of new-construction offerings with price cuts has quadrupled from a year earlier, according to Redfin. They tripled in Phoenix and doubled in the Tampa, Florida, region.

“We are in a different place — the builder can no longer name a price and say, ‘pay it or move along,” said Nicole Freer, a Houston agent who has slashed prices by $2,000 to $20,000 on homes she lists for builders. “They’re telling us: ‘Our managers have allowed us to negotiate again.’”

Still, despite the clear cracks in housing, homebuying has never been more expensive. Due to delays in pricing, the typical buyer with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is looking at a monthly payment of $2,514, up from $1,692 a year ago!

But those who remain in the market may notice they face less competition from other buyers.

Homes are more likely to sit on the market for a few weeks, compared to last year when they would go under contract within a week…

… and home prices are being bid up less often than they were earlier in the spring.

“The housing market isn’t crashing, but it is experiencing a hangover as it comes down from an unsustainable high,” said Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr. “Housing demand has already cooled significantly to the point that the industry has begun facing layoffs. This week’s rate hikes will further stretch homebuyers’ budgets to the point that many more may be priced out. While a lot of home sellers are already dropping their prices, more homeowners will likely decide to stay put now that the mortgage rate on a new home is significantly higher than their current one.

“If it weren’t for the surge in mortgage rates, the housing market would still be in a boom right now,” said Redfin Bay Area real estate agent James Cappello. “Demand from homebuyers was still extremely high as recently as February, but rates are making it really tough. Going from 3% to nearly 6% almost instantly has scared a lot of people out of the market.”

There’s more. In a subsequent report, Redfin reports that competition for existing inventory is collapsing with 57.8% of home offers written by Redfin agents facing competition on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, the lowest level since February 2021. That’s down sharply from a revised rate of 60.9% one month earlier and a pandemic peak of 68.8% one year earlier, and marks the fourth-consecutive monthly decline. On an unadjusted basis, May’s bidding-war rate was 60.8%, down from 67.8% in April and 71.8% in May 2021.

As a result of declining competition, the typical home in a bidding-war received 5.3 offers in May, down from 6.8 in April and 7.4 in May 2021.

“Homes are now getting one to three offers, compared with five to 10 two months ago and as many as 25 to 30 six months ago,” said Jennifer Bowers, a Redfin real estate agent in Nashville.

“Offers also aren’t coming in as high above the list price as before. I recently listed a three-bedroom, three-bathroom home in a super cute neighborhood for $399,900. It ended up going under contract for $12,000 above the list price with an inspection, whereas three months ago, the buyer probably would have paid $60,000 over asking and waived the inspection.”

In light of the above, it’s not surprising that today Bloomberg reports that “the fastest-rising mortgage rates in decades have cooled demand so abruptly in many hotspots that it took the industry by surprise. Builders that were artificially limiting sales and auctioning houses to the highest bidder now have inventory to move.

It’s part of a rapid shift in the US housing market as the Federal Reserve sharply raises interest rates to tame inflation, sending home-loan costs to the highest level since 2008 and straining buyers whose affordability limits were already being tested. Just this week, brokerages Compass and Redfin said they would slash jobs, as economic data showed housing starts dropped to the lowest level in more than a year and homebuilder sentiment is at a two-year low while homebuyer sentiment is the lowest on record.

The market has certainly noticed the collapse in housing, and share prices for builders have collapse, with the Supercomposite Homebuilding Index tumbling 42% this year through yesterday, almost double the 23% drop in the S&P 500.

Builders, who last year had so much power that people would wait in line overnight for homes they would meter out, are now contending with both falling demand and high material and labor costs. And with the Fed signaling more big rate hikes in coming months, they’re eager to get contracts signed before house hunters pull back even more.

In Sarasota, Florida, would-be buyers are hesitating because homes are taking so long to build, and it’s impossible to know where borrowing costs will land by the time they’re completed, said Donnette Herring, a Realtor with Keller Williams.

“Inflation makes them nervous,” Herring said.  

The signs of a shift are still early. Conditions vary from region to region and even between subdivisions, including many where demand still far outpaces supply. And rather than cutting prices, many builders are offering incentives such as free upgrades, money toward closing costs and subsidized mortgage rates. But the market is changing fast, said Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda. Her company, which tracks new construction, began hearing of price cuts toward the end of May and into June.  

“The builders that are cutting prices are also those that raised prices the most over the past six to 12 months,” she said.

Many of those are in areas that were favored destinations for pandemic migrants who have been moving from pricey regions in search of cheaper homes and more space. In the Phoenix metropolitan area, 22% of new-home listings had price cuts from May 9 through June 5, up from 7% a year earlier, according to data from Redfin. In Tampa, the share jumped to 21% from 9% a year earlier, and in Austin, it climbed to 13% from just 3%.

The cuts have come from both small private builders and big public ones, including D.R. Horton, Meritage Homes and Lennar according to listings in Florida, Texas and Arizona publicly available on sites such as Redfin and Realtor.com. A PulteGroup website shows 146 finished homes in Arizona, mostly with price reductions. Jim Zeumer, vice president of investor relations, said those appeared to be typical incentives used to sell spec houses –  those built without a buyer in place – that are complete or will be finished soon.

“We will typically have one or two finished specs in a community but use incentives to manage inventory levels over the life of a community,” Zeumer said.

During the recent boom, many builders were waiting until homes were nearing completion before allowing buyers to purchase them because of uncertainty around materials and labor costs. As a result, they have a flood of new homes that need to be matched up with buyers.

In the Houston region, it’s the fast-growing areas further from the city, such as Conroe to the north and Alvin to the south, that are cooling the most, said Freer, the local agent. Builders who were only selling homes that were almost done now are telling her that they’ll take orders for “dirt.”

Of her roughly 120 listings for builders, about 70% now have cuts, she said. Soon it will be 100%.

A key metric to watch is the contract cancellation rate, said Rick Palacios, research director at John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, California. It topped 9% nationally in May, according to his company’s survey of builders, up from 6.6% in April. That’s still short of the 16% pace after the pandemic lockdowns first took hold two years ago.

“The writing is on the wall that more supply is coming, no matter how you slice and dice the data,” Palacios said. “Builders are trying to get in front of that wave. We could have the double-whammy of the economy cooling and a lot of supply coming on. That’s not the best recipe to sell homes.”

end

END

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams //SHORTAGES//etc/

end

 

iv)swamp stories

end

King Report

The King Report June 17 2022 Issue 6783Independent View of the News
BOE Raises Rates to Highest (1.25%) Since 2009 and Warns More to Come
If inflation continues to soar, saying “it would be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and would if necessary act forcefully in response.”…
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/boe-hikes-rate-to-1-25-as-it-drops-hint-of-bigger-move-ahead
 
Bank of England Hikes Interest Rates but Resists Bolder Move
The decision came as the bank said it expected inflation to peaked at more than 11% in October, a full percentage point higher than its previous forecast.  The consumer price index rose by 9% in April, the highest since 1982 and more than four times the bank’s 2% target… “With the BoE seeing CPI at 11% – no less – in October, saying it will act forcefully if needed, and this it is particularly alert to more persistent inflation pressure… this begs the question: Why not hike more aggressively now? Why Wait?…  https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2022-06-16/bank-of-england-under-pressure-to-aggressively-raise-rates
 
Reuters: Sterling tumbles after Bank of England raises rate to 1.25%
Sterling fell sharply on Thursday, after the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates by 25 basis points, confounding forecasts by some market participants of a bigger hike to fight soaring inflation…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/sterling-tumbles-after-bank-england-raises-rates-125-2022-06-16/
 
Swiss National Bank raises rates in shock move, ready for moreSNB hikes rates for first time since 2007The central bank increased its policy rate to -0.25% from the -0.75% level it has deployed since 2015, sending the safe-haven franc sharply higher. Nearly all the economists polled by Reuters had expected the SNB to keep rates steady… Even after Thursday’s 0.5-point rate rise, the SNB expects inflation in the first quarter of 2025 to reach 2.1%, outside its target for a rate of 0%-2%. In 2022 it expects a rate of 2.8%…
    The bank said it was ready to intervene in markets to check excessive appreciation or weakening of the currency. Switzerland’s labour union federation criticised the rate hike, saying the SNB was allowing the strong franc to rise further, putting jobs and wages at risk.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swiss-national-bank-hikes-rates-by-half-point-franc-surges-2022-06-16/
  
Swiss National Bank: Monetary policy assessment of 16 June 2022
It cannot be ruled out that further increases in the SNB policy rate will be necessary in the foreseeable future to stabilize inflation in the range consistent with price stability over the medium term. To ensure
appropriate monetary conditions, the SNB is also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary… (Analysts fear the SNB will liquidate part of its large equity portfolio to fix the franc.)
    High inflation could become entrenched as a result of increased second round effects, requiring stronger monetary policy responses in other countries… (Clear warning to other CBs)
https://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20220616_2/source/pre_20220616_2.en.pdf
 
Swiss National Bank’s top equity holdings as of 3/31/2022: Apple 7%, Microsoft 5.37, Amazon 3.63%, Tesla 2.25% (The SNB loves US Fangs!)  https://whalewisdom.com/filer/swiss-national-bank
 
ECB Likely to Offset Bond-Buying Under New Anti-Crisis Tool
Bond-buying under any new anti-crisis tool from the European Central Bank would probably involve selling other securities so purchases don’t upset efforts to curb record inflation, according to people familiar with the matter… https://uk.investing.com/news/economy/ecb-likely-to-offset-bondbuying-under-new-anticrisis-tool-2670407
 
The yield on the 10-year German bund shot up 14 basis points to 1.78%, as Bloomberg News reported the European Central Bank might sell some securities, while buying debt of periphery eurozone members to stabilize the yield spreads… (Periphery EZ bonds are Europe’s Achilles Heel.)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/swiss-national-bank-and-bank-of-england-lift-interest-rates-following-fed-hikes-11655384625
 
A tectonic realignment in global currencies and interest rates is commencing.  No one knows the magnitude or duration of the ginormous adjustment.  However, there will be financial and economic destruction.  God willing, it will be creative destruction.
 
@Convertbond: Nothing more dangerous than academics sitting on trillions of risk assets during the price discovery process, they are playing with the serpent inside the mkt (as you say), he´s biting the hand as we speak Larry” CIO in London, in the live @BearTrapsReport chat on Bloomberg.  Global Bond Market and Central Bankers not allowing price discovery for 48 months – then (Fed) accelerating – or forcing price discovery at 95mph at the market – high kites indeed.
 
Ugly US economic data appeared on ThursdayMay Housing Starts 1.549m (1.693m, exp), Permits 1.695m (1.778m exp)May Housing Starts -14.4% m/m, largest decline since May 2020 (Covid Panic)April Starts revised to 1.81m (+5.5) from 1742m (-0.2%); Permits to 1.823m from 1.819mMay single-family starts -9.2% m/m SAAR, -5.3% y/yMay multi-family starts -26.8% m/m SAAR, -3.3% y/yMay Permits, single-family -5.5% m/m SAAR, -7.9% y/yMay Permits, multi-family -10.0% SAAR, +9.8% y/yJune Philly Fed -3.3 (5.0 exp, April 2.6), 1st contraction since May 2020 (Covid Panic)Initial Jobless Claims 229k (217k exp), previous revised to 232k from 229kContinuing Claims 1.312m (1.304m exp), pervious revised to 1.309m from 1.206m 
The Philadelphia Fed: June 2022 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
The diffusion index for current general activity declined for the third consecutive month, falling 6 points to -3.3. This is the index’s first negative reading since May 2020
    The new orders index fell 35 points to -12.4, and the shipments index fell 25 points but remained positive at 10.8… the employment index moved up from 25.5 to 28.1… The average workweek index decreased 4 points, to 11.8… The prices paid index declined… 14 points to 64.5… current prices received index edged down from 51.7 to 49.2… (Inventories -2.2 from 3.2; Unfilled orders -7.0 vs 17.9)
    The diffusion index for future general activity decreased for the fifth consecutive month, to -6.8, its first negative reading since December 2008… (A very troubling dynamic!)
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2022-06
 
The SNB’s unexpected rate hike shocked and awed the financial markets on Thursday.  Globally stocks and bonds tumbled.  ESUs plunged from a high of 3833.25 at 21:12 ET to 3695.00 at 5:19 ET. 
 
Conditioned buyers generated a plodding ESU rally of 35 handles that ended at 8:35 ET.  ESUs than tumbled for the second time, hitting 3658.75 (-174.50 from the high) by 10:54 ET.
 
USUs tumbled from 133 23/32 at 2:17 ET to a daily low of 131 1/32 at 7:46 ET.  An A-B-C rally pushed USUs to 133 19/32 by 11:25 ET on safe haven buying and defensive asset allocation (recession angst).
 
The rally for the European close pushed ESUs from the daily low of 3658.75 to 3689.50 at 11:26 ET.  ESUs and stocks then retreated modestly; USUs did the same.
 
ESUs then sank until they hit a daily low of 3642.00 at 14:53 ET.  The last-hour manipulation produced a 30-handle ESUs rally.  USUs soared all afternoon, hitting a daily high of 135 12/32 at 16:48 ET.
 
Odds of Recession Soar to 72% Under Biden… according to Bloomberg Economics models…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-06-16/odds-of-recession-soar-to-72-under-biden-video
 
Electricity prices are soaring across the US, particularly in states with big (blue) cities.
 
Electricity cost rising 50% in much of Illinois and risk of brownouts looms
Multiple factors have converged to drive up prices, everyone seems to agree. They include inflation, the conflict in Ukraine, high natural gas prices and the closure of coal-fired electric power plants
https://wirepoints.org/electricity-costs-rising-50-in-much-of-illinois-and-risk-of-brownouts-loom-wirepoints/
 
Railway Age: NMB Starts Clock Toward Rail Shutdown
The National Mediation Board (NMB) on June 14 set in motion a ticking time bomb toward an economy-jolting national railroad shutdown within 90 days, its two Democratic members agreeing with rail labor—and over the remonstrance of carriers and the NMB’s lone Republican—that a voluntary agreement to amend unionized rail worker wages, benefits and work rules is not within reach
    Negotiations toward amending existing contracts began in January 2020… Speculation is that rail labor seeks to throw the dispute before Congress while traditionally labor-friendly Democrats still control the House and Senate That is a risky strategy. (Especially with roaring inflation angst)
    In 1991, a rail union—in a non-election year—played its political card before a Democratic-controlled Congress and lost badly. The late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.), traditionally a staunch labor ally, voted with the majority against labor’s interests, calling his vote “good for business, good for the economy and good for the nation.”…  https://www.railwayage.com/regulatory/nmb-starts-clock-toward-rail-shutdown/
 
@Hedgeye: The guy leading the fed told everyone yesterday that ‘There’s No Sign’ of an economic slowdown and consumers are in good shape with a straight face.  Anyone else growing tired of this bs?
 
ExxonMobil statement regarding President Biden Letter to Oil Industry
This includes investments in the U.S. of more than $50 billion over the past five years, resulting in an almost 50% increase in our U.S. production of oil during this period… Globally, we’ve invested double what we’ve earned over the past five years — $118 billion on new oil and gas supplies compared to net income of $55 billion…. We kept investing even during the pandemic, when we lost more than $20 billion and had to borrow more than $30 billion to maintain investment to increase capacity to be ready for post-pandemic demand…
    In the short term, the U.S. government could enact measures often used in emergencies following hurricanes or other supply disruptions — such as waivers of Jones Act provisions and some fuel specifications to increase supplies. Longer term, government can promote investment through clear and consistent policy that supports U.S. resource development, such as regular and predictable lease sales, as well as streamlined regulatory approval and support for infrastructure such as pipelines
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/News/Newsroom/News-releases/2022/0615_ExxonMobil-statement-regarding-President-Biden-Letter-to-Oil-Industry
 
BBG’s @annmarie: Chevron’s response to Biden’s letter to big oil: “Unfortunately, what we have seen since January 2021 are policies that send a message that the Administration aims to impose obstacles to our industry delivering energy resources the world needs.”
 
White House Weighs Fuel-Export Limits as Pump Prices SurgeOptions including waiving anti-smog rules also being discussedClimbing energy costs pose political risk to Biden, Democratshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-16/white-house-mulls-fuel-export-limits-as-pump-prices-surge
 
Positive aspects of previous session
ESUs and USUs rallied sharply during early Asian trading
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds and tumbled after the SNB rate hike, and possible SNB asset sales to peg the franc
Fangs got eviscerated (The SNB owns beaucoup Fangs), NY Fang+ Index -4.85%
US economic data continues to show ebbing
Gold soared as the dollar sank
Defensive Asset Allocators are out in force
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What are the consequences of a Real Fed Funds Rate of ~NEGATIVE 700bps?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3678.24
Previous session High/Low3728.18; 3639.77
 
@karol: Absolutely nobody still believes the COVID vaccine stops infections, right? The line has changed to “reduces risk of serious outcome.” Children’s risk of serious outcome from COVID already statistically zero. The vaccine can’t get that number lower. Florida is, again, right.
 
@BrentScher: With much fanfare, the Biden administration bought a bunch of electric Ford Mustangs.
They all just got recalled because the electric batteries don’t work… https://t.co/0C5vaTgcRT
 
WaPo: U.S. probing how American electronics wound up in Russian military gear
FBI and Commerce Department agents are visiting tech companies to ask about computer chips found in drones, other weaponry  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/15/us-computer-chips-russian-military/
 
Fed Balance Sheet: +$14.166B; MBS +$20.121B   Powell is full of Schiff about “we’re moving expeditiously to bring inflation down.”  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20220616/
 
Today is June futures and options expiration.  Usually there is stock to buy on the NYSE open to replace expiry futures contracts.  This dynamic almost always generates a late rally during the previous session.  Traders will try to dump into the opening buyers.  If there are few buyers, traders will try to liquidate during the remainder of the session.  The BoJ is expected to maintain its promiscuous monetary policy.  If the BoJ is more hawkish than expected, look out!
 
The key for today should be the presence or absence of defensive asset allocators.  Recession angst has replaced inflation angst – for now.  We warned a few months ago that the 30-year bond was the most dangerous investment vehicle because investors and traders were buying bonds on the belief that the US economy was ebbing – while ignoring roaring inflation.
 
We are back to bond buying on recession angst and the hope that inflation will ebb in concert.  This is still a dangerous bet.  In a bull market, unexpected news and developments are mostly positive.  In a bear market, see yesterday, the converse is true.   ESMs are -1.25 at 20:05 ET; USUs are +1 8/32.
 
Expected economic data: May Industrial Production 0.4% m/m, Mfg Production 0.3%, Capacity Utilization 79.2%; May LEI -0.4%; Powell issues opening remarks at Dollar Conference 8:45 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4133; 100-day MA: 4276; 150-day MA: 4404; 200-day MA: 4425
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,900; 100-day MA: 33,629; 150-day MA: 34,314; 200-day MA: 34,505
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4927.78 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4251.12 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3999.94 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3774.76 triggers a buy signal
 
Biden’s Ministry of Truth scheme blew up over virulent public outrage.  So, Team Obama-Biden is now trying to implement a Kamala Harris Ministry of Truth.  You cannot make this up!
 
Kamala Harris launches new national task force on preventing online harassment and abuse
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/16/politics/task-force-online-harassment-abuse-kamala-harris/index.html
 
KJP’s Stumped When Asked to Explain How Kamala’s New ‘Task Force’ is Different from Biden Ministry of Truth    https://beckernews.com/awkward-kjps-stumped-when-asked-to-explain-how-kamalas-new-task-force-is-different-from-biden-ministry-of-truth-45433/
 
Betting markets favor DeSantis over Trump for 2024 Republican presidential nomination, as Elon Musk voices support for Florida governor – DeSantis has a 38% chance, ahead of Trump’s 36% and 7% for Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations… The former president “could become eclipsed by conservative Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as Republicans seek someone more palatable than Trump,” Valliere added…   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/betting-markets-favor-desantis-over-trump-for-2024-republican-presidential-nomination-as-elon-musk-voices-support-for-florida-governor-11655322034
 
Trump demands equal time on TV networks to counter Jan. 6 hearings
Ex-president says he should be allowed to present his side of the case… – Trump’s statement appeared to appeal to the Federal Communications Commission’s equal time provision that mandates U.S. radio and television broadcast stations provide an equivalent opportunity to any opposing political candidates who request it if their opponents has gotten it
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-demands-equal-time-tv-networks-counter-jan-6-hearings
 
In two recent columns, Ann Coulter excoriates Trump for talking big but doing little (ex-lowering taxes and moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem), letting Jared & Ivanka run him, sucking up to celebs, and betrayal.  Ann’s specific examples and biting rhetoric are a blueprint on how to run against DJT.
 
Coulter: Recall that the media attacked Trump for what he said, never what he did — like build the wall, bring manufacturing back to the U.S., deport illegals, end the pointless nation building in Afghanistan, avoid bombing foreign countries because Ivanka cried, tax remittances to foreign countries, end the carried-interest loophole, and not shut down the entire country because a Fox News host (Carlson) drove to Mar-a-Lago and said, MR. PRESIDENT! COVID IS DANGEROUS! YOU’VE GOT TO SHUT DOWN THE COUNTRY! (Luckily, he didn’t have Ron DeSantis’s address.)  The media didn’t attack Trump for those things because he didn’t do them…
 
As much as I’m enjoying the January 6th committee’s careful assembly of evidence proving former President Trump is a douchebag, I wasn’t seeing much in the way of a criminal offense until this week’s underreported story about how Trump used his “STOP THE STEAL” fundraising appeals to grift his supporters out of $250 million, none of which was, in fact, used to fight election fraud…
   And let’s not forget Steve Bannon’s “We Build the Wall” swindle; Trump sending out a fundraising appeal to raise funds for his new private plane; and a Trump-affiliated organization paying Kimberly Guilfoyle $60,000 to give a two-minute speech on Jan. 6 (introducing her fiance, Don Jr.). Every time you think you have your arms fully around Trump’s con, you realize it’s unfathomably more cynical and far-reaching than you could have imagined…
    Trump lost only one demographic in 2020 compared to 2016… WHITE MEN!  How did liberal activists pull off that?… It was also predicted by anyone who supported Trump in 2016 — and then watched him piss away his presidency for four years by betraying his base…
    Most stunningly, Trump blew off the signature promise of his campaign: the wall. While he was busy sucking up to Wall Street, Kim Kardashian, RINOs, Silicon Valley, the gun-grabbers and illegal aliens, not one mile of wall got built.  He finally got around to the wall his last year in office. Total new wall across a 2,000 mile border completed during the entire Trump presidency: 47 miles…
https://anncoulter.substack.com/p/dineshs-stupid-movie?s=02
 
January 6 Witness Calls Out Jamie Raskin (Jan 6 Com member) for Objecting to 2016 Election
Jacob also noted that Democrats had tried to stop the certification of the Electoral College vote in 2000, 2004, and 2016Raskin himself… tried to reject Electoral College votes to declare Trump the winner in 2016…  https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/06/16/watch-january-6-witness-calls-out-jamie-raskin-for-objecting-to-2016-election/
 
“U.S. Senators Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA), Tim Scott (R-SC), Steve Daines (R-MT), and Todd Young (R-IN) introduced the Educational Choice for Children Act.”
https://www.cassidy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/cassidy-colleagues-introduce-national-school-choice-week-resolution
 
Biden, Pelosi, other top Dems sent kids to private school but oppose school choice
‘To them, apparently, only rich people should have school choice
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-pelosi-top-dems-sent-kids-private-school-oppose-choice
 
Recent primaries show school choice is very popular with voters.
 
@RNCResearch: Michigan’s Democrat Attorney General Dana Nessel: “Ya know what’s not a problem for kids who are seeking a good education? Drag queens. “I say this: a drag queen for every school! That is what would be fine for a kid.”   https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1537438775969689600
 
Bipartisan Senate bill on gun violence stalls over red flag laws, ‘boyfriend’ loophole
The bipartisan Senate group is hoping to introduce something that the full chamber can vote on before going to recess on June 27.
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/senate-gun-reformers-tight-timeline-talks-stall-over-red-flag-laws-boyfriend
 
Border agents’ punishment coming in part due to Biden’s refusal to retract penalty pledge
The Border Patrol agents previously exonerated by an Inspector General investigation over allegations they were hitting migrants with horsewhips are set to be punished in part because the president never retracted his promise that they “will pay.” (Joe has been a lowlife for eons.  The MSM covers for him.)
https://www.foxnews.com/media/border-agents-punishment-coming-biden-refusal-retract-penalty-pledge-sara-carter
 
@SaraGonzalesTX: Nancy Pelosi thinks we’re still in a war with Iraq and is also amazed to learn that she has hands.  https://twitter.com/SaraGonzalesTX/status/1537479237074145280

Greg Hunter 

Fed Kills the Economy, Dem Blues, Vax Keep Killing

By Greg Hunter On June 17, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups24 Comments

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox?compose=jrjtXSqmWPlWzqLcnkGxhwmZXRTTCLPZWflrmlLhpHbvJnzvHxNKNfDnsTNhcLXGkRcDNrhQ

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 534 6.17.22)

The Federal Reserve, this week, raised a key interest rate the most in 28 years.  The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate by a stunning .75%.  As the Fed clearly signaled rising interest rates, the markets tanked.  Fears of recession are everywhere, and the Fed says it will continue to raise rates.  Right now, the 30-Year mortgage is around 6.20%.  In January, it was half that.  Housing is taking a huge hit along with everything else.

As gasoline hits one record high after another and the cost of living in the real world skyrockets, Democrats’ hopes for the mid-term elections tank.  In a special election in a deep blue Congressional district in Texas, the GOP upset the Democrat incumbent and took the House seat.  Mayra Flores is heading to Washington after a 20% swing in Democrat voters switching to the GOP.  This is a bad omen for November 2022 for the Democrats.  This is why the Dems have the blues for 2022, and it ain’t going to be much better in 2024.

This week, we saw more mysterious deaths that appear to be caused by the CV19 vax, but you cannot be sure because nobody is talking.  The stories just keep using words like mysterious, sudden and unexpected when describing these types of deaths and never list an actual cause.  Is this a coverup for the extreme harm being caused by the experimental CV19 vax?  It sure looks like it.  This “mystery” can’t last forever as the bodies from strange unexplained deaths keep piling up.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 6.17.22.

(https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox?compose=jrjtXSqmWPlWzqLcnkGxhwmZXRTTCLPZWflrmlLhpHbvJnzvHxNKNfDnsTNhcLXGkRcDNrhQ)

After the Wrap-Up:

Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of “The Solari Report,” will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post.  CAF explains why what is happening in the economy is “not a recession, but a war.”

SEE YOU ON TUESDAY

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