JULY 28/GOLD AND SILVER HAD STRONG DAYS POST FOMC: GOLD UP $31.25 TO $1752.50//SILVER UP A STRONG $1.24 TO $19.91//PLATINUM UP $1.15 TO $890.25//PALLADIUM UP $83.45 TO $2094.20//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE INJURY REPORT//VACCINE IMPACT REPORT//UPDATES RE GAZPROM DELIVERIES TO EUROPE//USA REPORTS A HUGE DROP OF .9% SETTING OFF A FIRESTORM AS THE USA IS OFFICIALLY IN A RECESSION//ALSO AN INCREASE IN INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1752505 UP $31.25 

SILVER: $19.91 UP 124 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1756.70

SILVER: $20.01

We are now entering options expiry for Comex (tomorrow) and OTC/LBMA (Friday)

Bitcoin morning price:  $23,027 UP 147

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $23,827. UP 947  

Platinum price: closing UP $1.15 to $890.25

Palladium price; closing up $83.45  at $2094.20

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

JPMorgan stopped 5/6

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,719.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/27/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/29/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 H HSBC 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 3
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 1


TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 9,641

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY CONTRACT:  

6 NOTICES FOR 600 OZ //0.01866 TONNES

total notices so far: 9641 contracts for 964,100 oz (29.987 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

68 NOTICES FILED FOR 340,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  4008 :  for 20,040,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $31.25 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 124 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:A WITHDRAWAL OF 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 484.118 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY  A SMALL SIZED 304  CONTRACTS TO 148,088   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR   $0.04 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.04) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS// WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 2010 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / //  V)    SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -4

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 19 days, total 16,117  contracts:  80.585 million oz  OR 4.424 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (848 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 80.585 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 15 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 80.585 MILLION OZ 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 304 WITH OUR  $0.04 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1700 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER  ADDITIONS ////// HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// WE HAVE A POOR INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY. OF 15.22 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 10,000 OZ  //  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2004 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 10.050 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE..THE SPECS ARE GOING TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 68  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  340,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 5,040 CONTRACTS  TO 482,038 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: +437 CONTRACTS.

.

THE STRONG SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR SMALL RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.//WE HAD INITIATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION WHICH TOOK CARE OF ALL OF THE FALL AT COMEX.. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//HUGE ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX IS ONE BIG FARCE

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL RISE IN PRICE OF   $1.80 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1414  OI CONTRACTS 3.038 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..WITH ALL THE LOSS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED  4063  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 482,475

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1414 CONTRACTS  WITH 5040 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4063 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 977 CONTRACTS OR 3.038 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4063) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (5,040): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  1,414 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS//STRONG BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP   3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION////SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS/ //.,4)   STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

116,922 CONTRACTS OR 11,692,200 OZ OR 363.67  TONNES 19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6153 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 363.67 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  363.67/3550 x 100% TONNES  10.22% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 363.67 TONNES (HUGE INCREASE FROM JUNE//WILL CLOSE IN ON THE RECORD EFP ISSUANCE IN MARCH 22//SURPASSED PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH NOV 21) 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE    NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 304 CONTRACT OI TO 148,088 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1700 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 1700  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1700 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 304  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1700 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2004   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10.020 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  RISE IN PRICE OF  $0.04

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.62 PTS OR 0.21%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 47.36 OR 0.23%    /The Nikkei closed UP 99.73 OR % 0.36.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.11%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7486//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7545//    /Oil UP TO 99.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 108.38// SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.62 PTS OR 0.21%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 47.36 OR 0.23%    /The Nikkei closed UP 99.73 OR % 0362.          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.11%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5040 CONTRACTS TO 482,475 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL RISE OF $1.80  IN GOLD PRICING  WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (4063 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4063 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :4063 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4063 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 977  CONTRACTS IN THAT 4063 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 5,040  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR SMALL SIZED  GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 1.80. TODAY, WITNESSED THE CONTINUATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION. WE  ALSO ARE WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS IS AN ABSOLUTE FARCE.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY   (29.987),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $1.80) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AND COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO COVER TO THEIR POSITIONS////ALL THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION//  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED LOSS  OF 4.398 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (29.987 TONNES)

WE HAD -XXX  CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 977 CONTRACTS OR  97,700  OZ OR 3.038 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 234,648/// fair/

final gold volumes/yesterday  282,938 / fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 28

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz257,465.208oz
Brinks
JPMorgan


Manfra
8008 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today6   notice(s)
600 OZ
0.01866 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)0 contracts 
00 oz
0.0 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month9641 notices
964,100 OZ
29.987 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0 

total deposits: 0 oz

4 customer withdrawals:

i) out of Brinks:  257.200 oz Brinks 8 kilobars

ii) out of JPMorgan:  160,755.000 oz (5,000 kilobars)

iv)out of Manfra:  92,453.000  oz  3000 kilobar 

total withdrawals: 257,465.200 oz (8,008 kilobars)

ADJUSTMENTS: dealer to customer/Loomis

2314.872 oz

customer to dealer: Manfra  383.812 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an  oi of 6 contracts having LOST  30 contracts . We had

30 notices filed on Tuesday so we GAINED 0  contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 35,104 contracts down to 43,728 contracts. We have 1 more reading day before first day notice. Looks like we will have a strong August standing for gold (JULY 29/22..FIRST DAY NOTICE)

Sept. gained 539 contracts to 3911 contracts.

We had 6 notice(s) filed today for  600 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 6 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  5 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9641) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JULY 6  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 6 x 100 oz per contract equals 964,100 OZ  OR 29.987 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (9641) x 100 oz+   (x6)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6} x 100 oz} which equals 958,100 oz standing OR 29.987 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  29.987 TONNES  (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY (  NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,443,533.842 oz   76.00 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  30,635,105.67 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 15,449,907.284  OZ (480.5 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,185,197.889 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 13,008,303.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 404.6 tonnes 

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 28

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory738,530.160  oz

Brinks
HSBC
JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory901,274.480 oz
Delaware
JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)68 CONTRACT(S)
340,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)0 contracts 
(0 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)4076 contracts
 20,380,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware 299,037.840 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan: 602,236.640 oz

total deposit:  802,768.630   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 175.168 million oz/337.594 million =51.89% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:3

i) Out of Brinks:  134,363.360 oz

ii) Out of HSBC 599,144.500 oz

iii) Out of jPMorgan 5022,38o 0z

total: 738,530 oz

 adjustments: 4//dealer to customer

Brinks 148,140.660 oz

CNT  180,028.524 oz

JPMorgan: 1,653,528.780 oz

Manfra 64,372.750 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 55.722 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 337.756 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 68 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 32 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 34 NOTICES FILED

ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL  10,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST LOST 45 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 829

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 1940 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 114,986

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 68 for  340,000 oz

Comex volumes:85,956// est. volume today//   very good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 67,961 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4076 x 5,000 oz = 20,380,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(68) and the number of notices served upon today 68  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 4076 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (68)  – number of notices served upon today (68) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 20,380,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1005.29 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 484.118 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Is The Fed At The End Of Its Rope?

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 08:21 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

The Federal Reserve delivered another 75 basis point interest rate hike at its July FOMC meeting. This pushes the federal funds rate over the 2% threshold to between 2.25% and 2.5%.

The mainstream media emphasized the size of the hike. One headline called it “a second super-sized hike,” with many other mainstream pundits noting that it matched a June hike was the biggest since 1994. But it wasn’t as big as the full 1% hike everybody thought was on the table after we got June’s flaming hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Here’s the question: has the Fed reached the end of its rope? Will this be the last hike in this cycle?

The corporate financial press seems to think the Fed will hike again in September, and the central bank certainly left that impression. The FOMC statement said it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.” Powell said another “unusually large increase” could be appropriate at the September meeting.

But the FOMC state left some wiggle room, saying, “The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.”

In other words, the Fed can stop hiking at any time.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell left even more space to retreat from the inflation fights, saying there is “significantly” more uncertainty right now than normal and the lack of any clear insight into the future trajectory of the economy means the Fed can only provide reliable policy guidance on a “meeting by meeting” basis.

The markets seemed to interpret the Fed’s stance as more doveish. Stocks were up, as was gold.

The Fed may well need that wiggle room.

With this 75 basis-point hike, interest rates are now equal to the peak of the last hiking cycle in December 2018.

Passant Gardant published a graph that indicates the current interest rate is above the maximum that the economy can handle before plunging into a recession.

As you can see, the peak of the rate hike cycle gets lower and lower with each subsequent tightening. No matter how emphatically Powell insists that the Fed can raise interest rates, slay inflation and bring us to a soft landing, reality says otherwise. There is nothing to lead us to believe that the Fed can get rates to 2% without crashing the bubble economy, much less hike them to 3.5% or 4%. (And that’s not even enough to slay inflation.)

When interest rates reached this level in 2018, the stock market crashed and economic data went wobbly. In response, the Fed reversed course and put tightening on pause. In 2019, it cut rates three times and relaunched quantitative easing (although it refused to call it that.) This all happened long before the extraordinarily loose monetary policy launched in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

Today, there is even more debt and malinvestment in the economy than there was in 2019. It seems unlikely the Fed can push rates any higher without a complete economic meltdown. And we may already be past that point of no return. Despite claims to the contrary, it appears the US economy is already in a recession and has been all year.

The FOMC conceded that the economy appears to “have softened.” But the committee remains sanguine.

“Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low,” the FOMC statement said.

During his post-meeting press conference, Powell insisted the economy was not in a recession.

“There are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well. I would point to the very strong labor market. [It is] true that growth is slowing.”

As Peter Schiff noted, the Fed chair apparently picked up its copy of White House talking points declaring that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth doesn’t mean the economy is in a recession.

“If you think the Fed is independent, today’s press conference should put that myth to rest. Powell clearly got the Biden administration memo that recession is not defined by two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. Powell even said it’s not his job to declare a recession,” Schiff said.

Powell has to downplay the GDP. In the first quarter of 2022, GDP came in at -1.6 percent. The Atlanta Fed projects another -1.2% decline in Q2. Using the common definition, that would mean we’re in a recession now, and we have been all year.

While Powell and others keep saying the economy is strong, the only data they consistently point to is the labor market. But the job market is a lagging indicator and even it looks shaky. As Schiff pointed out during an interview with Laura Ingraham, we’ve seen three straight weeks of increasing first-time jobless claims, and they’re at the highest level since October last year.

Meanwhile, if you look at that last job report, even though we added about 400,000 jobs in the establishment survey, the household survey lost about that many jobs. But if you actually look at the jobs, almost all of these new jobs were for people who already had jobs. These were people taking second and third jobs because they’re struggling to pay the bills. And you have a lot of retirees who are being forced back into the workforce because inflation has eviscerated their incomes, and now they have no choice but to go to work. So, these are not jobs that people want. These are jobs that people are forced to take because the economy is so weak.”

Meanwhile, we’re seeing big pullbacks in the housing market, manufacturing and retail. And the average American isn’t buying the “economy is fine” narrative. Consumer confidence fell to a 19-month low in July.

This is eerily similar to the early days of the 2008 recession when the mainstream media and government officials kept saying everything was fine even as the economy was going up in flames.

No Stomach for This Fight

This economy was built on easy money and debt. It looks like taking away the easy money punch bowl has already popped the bubble. This latest rate hike will only make the rip in the bubble bigger, letting the air out even faster. It’s only a matter of time before the entire house of cards economy collapses.

In reality, this needs to happen. The economy needs a recession to cleanse all of the misallocations and distortions out of the economy. But that would mean a lot of pain. Despite the recent hikes and all of the tough talk, one has to wonder if the Fed has the stomach to follow through with this inflation fight and allow the economy to crash to the ground.

For now, the central bankers at the Fed and the policymakers in DC can try to spin away the recession in the hope that inflation will magically go away before things get really bad, so they can go back to business as usual. By “business as usual,” I mean borrowing and spending and printing money out of thin air.

The trajectory of balance sheet reduction reveals that the Fed doesn’t really have the stomach for this inflation fight.

The FOMC statement claimed that “the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May.”

The problem with this statement is that it’s now the end of July and the Fed still isn’t reducing the size of its balance as described by the plan.

The balance sheet peaked in April at $8.966 trillion. Since that time, the Fed has reduced the balance sheet by a mere $66 billion. That’s just 0.74%.

The plan announced in May was for $30 billion in US Treasuries and $17.5 billion in mortgage-backed securities to roll off the balance sheet in June, July and August. That totals $45 billion per month. In September, the Fed plans to increase the pace to $95 billion per month.

At the time, I noted that this wasn’t an impressive balance sheet roll-off given the historically high CPI. At $95 billion per month, it would take 7.8 years for the Fed to shrink its balance sheet back to pre-pandemic levels. And it’s not even keeping pace with its own tepid plan.

If the Fed was really serious about fighting inflation, it would be rapidly shrinking the money supply.

So, the question remains: is the Fed at the end of its rope? And when it inevitably reaches that point will it let go, keep tightening to fight inflation, and take the economy into freefall? Or will it surrender to inflation and pivot back to easy money and quantitative easing, letting inflation run wild in order to rescue the economy?

END

Peter Schiff: Americans Paying For Big Government Through The Inflation Tax

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 12:40 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Rapidly rising prices put the squeeze on everybody’s wallets. A recent study showed that inflation is hitting rural Americans particularly hard. According to the Iowa State University report, people in rural areas now spend 91% of their income on expenses alone. Peter Schiff recently appeared on Rob Schmitt Tonight to talk about the pain of the inflation tax.

Schmitt said the last time Peter was on the show, he painted a “very ugly picture about what’s coming for the American economy.” Peter said the picture is getting uglier.

I think we’re not in recession, which was something that I had been predicting. So, inflation got stronger as the economy got weaker. And I think this recession is just getting started, and it’s going to last a long time.”

Peter said that when you talk about families struggling with inflation, they’re really struggling with government.

Inflation is a tax. It’s the way government finances deficit spending. Government spends money. It doesn’t collect enough taxes, so it has to run deficits. The Federal Reserve monetizes those defiticts – prints money. They call it quantitative easing, but that’s inflation. Government is getting bigger and bigger, and families across America are going to have to bear that burden through higher prices.”

The government has also artificially suppressed interest rates for years. Schmitt said we’re paying the price for those decades of “cheap money.”

Peter agreed, emphasizing that interest rates should reflect the free market, not “price-fixing by the government.” He said that by artificially suppressing interest rates, the Fed “really screwed up this economy.”

Now we’re going to have to pay a heavy price to unwind all those mistakes. That’s why this recession is going to be so severe. That’s why this financial crisis is going to be worse than the one we had in 2008.”

The Fed has raised rates to fight inflation, but Peter said it’s not enough.

That’s still much too low. That’s an inflationary highly stimulative rate when you have the rate so far below inflation.”

Peter said that the inflation situation is far worse than the rigged CPI indicates, and with the amount of money the Federal Reserve has created over the years, we are likely heading for “an inflationary depression.”

Peter said he doesn’t know what it will take for the government to do the right thing.

The only way to solve the inflation problem is to dramatically cut government spending and to allow interest rates to rise to a market level. Now, when that happens, it’s going to be terrible as far as asset prices collapsing, failures, bankruptcies. But we’re going to have to endure that to get to the other side. If we want a real economy then we’re going to have to experience a real recession to get there.”

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: U.S. recession or no. Mixed views driving asset prices.

This week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the U.S. is now behind us and it has had a profound outcome on global markets of virtually all kinds. The initial reaction to the meeting decisions and the subsequent statement and press release by Fed chair Jerome Powell had been to drive the dollar index sharply lower, although it was picking up again this morning, and gold, equities and bitcoin all higher. But will this euphoric investor reaction last? Perhaps not once more sober analysis is brought to bear on the actual meeting outcome and on Powell’s somewhat contradictory statements.

Interest rates were raised, as generally expected, by 75 basis points, but the interpretations of Powell’s subsequent statement and the ensuing press release proved to be somewhat varied. He did state quite categorically that the U.S. was not in a recession, although we are still waiting, at the time of writing, on today’s figures of the latest Q2 GDP estimates to see whether that is really the case as far as official statistics are concerned. Part of his statement was taken as suggesting that the likely September rate increase might be a little lower than the latest 75 basis point rise, although at the same time he intimated that inflation was still a major concern and if it remained high a repeat of the high interest rate increase, or even higher, might be on the cards.

If one goes entirely by market reaction, and the path of the CME’s Fedwatch Tool, the markets are very definitely for now anticipating a lower rate hike in September and have been moving accordingly. According to the Fedwatch Tool today, 70% are expecting only a 50 basis point rate increase and just 30% a 75 basis point rise in September. None appear to be even considering a 100 basis point rise, which Powell did not rule out in his post-FOMC statement. The Fedwatch Tool, though can be prone to over-reaction. For example in the immediate aftermath of the ultra high Consumer Price Index figure of just over a week ago it was strongly (over 70%) predicting a 100 basis point rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting, but this came down to under 30% within a couple of days as more conservative counsel prevailed.

U.S. equities rose sharply in late trade yesterday, and although European equities opened on a positive note today they fell back as trade progressed. Gold at one time looked to be heading to $1,750, but after this strong start had fallen back quite sharply at the time of writing to below $1,740 – still stronger than it has been of late, but definitely a disappointment to gold followers given its heady start to the day. It will be interesting to see what happens to all the major asset classes in U.S. markets today. We suspect much will depend on the Preliminary Q2 GDP figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. If they come in negative, as many forecasts suggest, that will suggest the U.S. is actually in recessionary territory, whatever Powell says, as technically two successive quarters of negative growth define a recession. Q1 GDP was negative 1.6%, so if Q2 also appears to be negative …!

Whether the U.S. is technically in a recession or not, it is certainly teetering on the edge of one. Powell’s more optimistic takes look to be an effort to buoy up the markets and help avoid a hard landing which he is so anxious to do. If inflation does stay elevated, which we fear it may as his 2% target looks to be totally unattainable in the foreseeable future, then equities will suffer as current prices are mostly unsustainable in such an economic environment. Gold, and maybe silver, should go from strength to strength as wealth protectors which should not be prone to the ravages of inflation – particularly if the dollar index declines too as it probably will.

28 Jul 2022

end

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Ronan Manly reports that the LBMA silver inventories have been depleting all year and now are at a 6 year low

(Ronan Manly)

Ronan Manly: LBMA silver inventories near 6-year low

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-07-27 11:57Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ronan Manly
Bullion Star, Singapore
Wednesday, July 27, 2022

One trend in the precious metals markets that has yet to get widespread coverage but deserves more attention is the plummeting inventories of physical silver in the London vaults of the London Bullion Market Association. 

These  comprise vaults in and around London run by the bullion banks JP Morgan, HSBC, and ICBC Standard Bank, as well as the London vaults of three security operators — Brinks, Malca-Amit, and Loomis

Quietly and almost under the radar, the quantity of silver held in the LBMA vaults has been consistently hemorrhaging for seven straight months. Latest data from the LBMA as of the end of June 2022 shows that the LBMA vaults now hold only 997.4 million ounces of silver (31,023 tonnes).  

Compared to the end of June 2021 when LBMA silver inventories stood at 1.18 billion ounces (36,706 tonnes), the LBMA vaults’ June 2022 month-end silver inventories are now 182.7 million ounces (5,683 tonnes) lower than a year ago — in other words a whopping 15.48% lower compared to June 2021. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma-silver-inventories-fall-to-a-near-6-year-low-below-1-billion-ounces/

(Courtesy Ronan Manly/GATA)

END

A funny article

(New York Sun)

New York Sun: The five top secrets of the Federal Reserve

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-07-27 09:44Section: Daily Dispatches

From the New York Sun
Wednesday, July 27, 2022

https://www.nysun.com/article/secrets-of-the-fed

A shocking new report from the Senate Committee on Homeland Security says that the Federal Reserve has been caught flat-footed by Communist Chinese spies trying to find out the secrets of the Fed. We wish them luck. We don’t want to be misunderstood here, but we’ve been trying to get the central bank’s secrets for years and it’s easier to mine for Bitcoin. Here, though, are five of the most closely guarded secrets of the Fed:

The Fed has no idea what’s going to happen. It failed to call the 20008 recession and the current inflation. Several years ago the Wall Street Journal editorial page, one of the biggest retail dealers in secrets of the Fed, published a chart of the Fed’s predictions. Not one of them came within a kiloparsec of what actually happened. The Journal found it “remarkable that the Fed is so wrong so often.”

The Fed might employ as many as a thousand economists. No one knows exactly how many. The Fed claims it has “just over 400 Ph.D. economists.” Estimates have run as high as 3,000. Not even such a well-connected person as Paul Volcker, a former Fed chairman, had any idea what function these employees serve. It can be disclosed that he once demanded of a reporter: “What in the world do they all do?”

The Fed once went seven years without a dissenting vote on monetary policy on its board. This is one of the most explosive secrets ever offered for sale by the Journal. It was discovered by economist Judy Shelton lurking in open sources and electrified Fed watchers. During the tenures of Chairmen Powell and Yellen, no governor cast a dissenting vote on monetary policy. So the Sun referred to the Fed as GosFed, after the Soviet Central Bank. 

Inflation has an enormous constituency. This is one of the secrets of the Fed that is least understood. It turns out that  inflation is a gift to persons who owe money — and the most indebted entity is the United States government. So it has become inflation’s most faithful friend. With the Chinese regime holding just under a trillion dollars in American treasury bonds, the Fed sees the communist mandarins as chumps.

Finally, the Fed doesn’t know what a dollar is. The word “dollars” appears twice in the United States Constitution, yet it is not defined there. The Founders understood the dollar to have a fixed value in specie. The statutes that once defined the dollar as a fixed weight of silver or gold — a 35th of an ounce of the latter, as recently as 1971 — are gone, though, and the dollar has lost 98.8% of its value since the founding of the Fed.

end

Gold trading in Lagos to begin officially tomorrow.  Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil producer so it is natural to include gold.  With Russian oil running at huge discounts as many nations scramble to

purchase physical gold in order to obtain this cheap oil.

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Gold trading begins on Nigerian exchange ahead of official launch

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-07-27 23:32Section: Daily Dispatches

By Emele Onu and Anthony Osae-Brown
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, July 27, 2022

A newly licensed Nigerian commodities exchange started trading in gold ahead of its official launch this week, the first time the metal will be offered on a bourse in the West African nation. 

The Lagos Commodities and Futures Exchange is licensed by the Securities and Exchange Commission to trade gold with the specification of the London Bullion Market Association’s 99.99% purity, targeting globally acceptable pricing and quality, according to Akinsola Akeredolu-Ale, managing director of the Lagos bourse.

The exchange is scheduled for a formal launch on July 28 and will in addition to gold trade other commodities including cashew, shea butter, paddy rice, maize, soybeans. and sorghum, Akeredolu-Ale said in an interview. “The aim is to diversify the asset base of the capital market and improve government revenue sources,” he said.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude producer, is encouraging public and private-sector collaboration to develop other mineral resources such as gems, zinc, iron ore, and lead to help curb dependence on oil, which accounts for about 90% of export earnings. Last year Thor Explorations Ltd. recorded the country’s first commercial gold output from its Segilola mine, with a target of 85,000 ounces a year.

The commodities exchange will broaden opportunities for Nigerian stockbrokers and reduce their dependence on the volatile equities market. It was established by the Association of Securities Dealing Houses of Nigeria to provide a platform for its members to diversify trading revenue. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/gold-trading-kicks-off-on-nigerian-exchange-ahead-of-launch

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Probably the only major that so far can survive as mining costs escalate against a backdrop of gold/silver price manipulation  (price is kept from rising due to inflation)

 Agnico Eagle Mines: Soaring Above The Peer Group

Jul. 28, 2022 6:02 AM ETAgnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)11 Comments10 Likes

Summary

  • Agnico Eagle released its Q2 results this week, reporting quarterly production of ~858,200 ounces, a 71% increase from the year-ago period, driven by the recently closed merger with KL Gold.
  • While this production growth was to be expected, costs came in below my estimates at $1,026/oz, evidence of Agnico’s superior business model that shines even in an inflationary environment.
  • Given this solid performance, AEM remains on track to meet or beat its FY2022 guidance, and costs will remain within guidance at industry-leading levels.
  • At a current valuation of less than ~7x cash flow, Agnico has rarely ever been this attractively valued, and I would be shocked if this valuation disconnect persisted, making this an attractive buying opportunity below $42.00 per share.

END

THIS IS AMUST VIEW:

https://lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID=17859

Alasdair Macleod: Has Basel III impacted gold & silver Last year the Basel III regulations went into effect, with many expecting an impact on the gold and silver prices.

Obviously we haven’t seen gold and silver shoot higher as some thought, although in today’s call I checked in with Alasdair Macleod of Goldmoney.com to get his thoughts on the policy impact a year later.

In the call he also comments on the latest central bank policies, the problems they’re creating, and how he sees it all playing out.

So to find out more, click to watch the video now!

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: WHEAT

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7482

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7545

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 47.36 PTS OR  0.23%

2. Nikkei closed UP 99.73 OR 0.36%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED MOSTLY MIXED 

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  106,75/Euro FALLS TO 1.0129

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.199/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.75/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.045%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.40% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.27%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.00//

3j Gold at $1739.95 silver at: 19.40  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 75/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.62

3m oil into the 99 dollar handle for WTI and  108 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 135.62DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9622– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9747well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.779  UP 5  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.079  UP 8 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.91

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Furious Rally Pauses As Sentiment Turns Metaworse Amid Record Earnings Barrage

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 08:04 AM

One day after the Nasdaq 100 posted its biggest jump since November 2020 when the market exploded higher after it interpreted Powell’s forward guidance purge and comment that it is “likely appropriate to slow rate increases at some point” as more dovish than expected, US stocks were set to pull back as downbeat earnings and a dire outlook from bad to Metaworse weighed on demand. Futures contracts on the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.5% by 7:15 a.m. in New York, after the underlying gauge rallied 4.3% in the previous session. S&P 500 futures were down 0.2% after the benchmark index jumped to its highest level in seven weeks. Treasury yields were little changed and the dollar and bitcoin edged up.

In premarket trading, Facebook parent Meta tumbled after it reported its first-ever quarterly sales decline as ad spend by businesses cooled, leading to a far worse than expected forecast. Qualcomm also slipped as it issued a lackluster forecast.  Renewable energy companies soared in Europe and premarket trading following a deal by Democrats and Senator Manchin to advance a bill that will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on energy security and climate change. Vestas Wind Systems A/S surged more than 14% as oil also rose.  Spirit Airlines Inc. rose in premarket on a deal with JetBlue Airways Corp. Among other individual movers, Best Buy dropped in premarket trading as analysts slashed their price targets on the retailer after it cut its profit and sales outlook. Ford Motor on the other hand, jumped after reporting better-than-expected adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Qualcomm (QCOM US) shares fall 4.5% in premarket trading after the chipmaker issued a lackluster forecast for the current quarter as it expects weakening economy to weigh on consumer spending on mobile devices. Watch shares of US chipmakers and semiconductor capital equipment stocks, including Lam Research (LRCX US), Applied Materials (AMAT US), Nvidia (NVDA US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US), Intel (INTC US), after Samsung’s quarterly profit missed estimates and Qualcomm’s forecast.
  • Meta Platforms (META US) shares are down 5.9% in premarket trading, after the Facebook parent reported its first- ever quarterly sales decline as ad spend by businesses cooled.
  • Ford (F US) shares jumped as much as 7.7% in US premarket trading after the carmaker’s adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Solar energy and renewables stocks gain in US premarket trading after Senator Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer struck a deal on a tax and energy policy bill.
  • First Solar (FSLR US) +10%, SunRun (RUN US) +12%, Enphase Energy (ENPH US) +3.6%, SolarEdge (SEDG US) +4.0%
  • Etsy (ETSY US) rises 6.1% in premarket trading on Thursday after the company posted stronger-than-expected second- quarter results, with most analysts seeing the online retailer retaining its market-share gains made during the pandemic
  • ServiceNow (NOW US) shares fall 7.5% in US premarket trading, after the software company cut its full-year revenue forecast due to a stronger dollar and a potential pull back in demand.
  • Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) shares climb 4.5% in premarket trading as JetBlue Airways is said to be close to an agreement to buy the carrier.
  • Best Buy (BBY US) shares drop 4.4% in US premarket trading as analysts slashed their price targets on the retailer after it cut its profit and sales outlook, with brokers blaming the macroeconomic backdrop.
  • Teladoc Health (TDOC US) shares fall about 25% in premarket trading after the virtual- care company’s 3Q Ebitda guidance came in below expectations, with analysts saying the outlook for Teladoc is likely to be revised downward.
  • Community Health Systems Inc. (CYH US) shares plummet 52% in premarket trading after the hospital company reported a surprise loss per share for the second quarter.

US stocks have rallied in July, putting the S&P 500 Index on course for its biggest monthly gain since October 2021, as the market finally grasps what we have been saying since January, namely that the weaker macroeconomic will prompt the central bank to “pivot” to easier policy, coupled with bets that much of the bad news was now priced in. It could get even worse, er better, today when the US reports Q2 GDP which may confirm that the world’s largest economy is in a technical recession further shortening the Fed tightening phase.

To be sure, the knee-jerk relief in markets on possible crumbs of comfort from the Fed outlook echoes a pattern seen after earlier hikes. Those bouts of optimism stumbled on recession risks from a global wave of monetary tightening, Europe’s energy woes and China’s property sector and Covid challenges. “We do feel the hikes are going to slow from these levels,” Laura Fitzsimmons, JPMorgan Australia’s executive director of macro sales, said on Bloomberg Television. But financial-industry participants are skeptical about the pricing indicating Fed rate cuts in 2023, she added.

“As the tug-of-war between inflation and recession fears plays out in the second half of the year, we expect to see highly volatile markets,” Richard Flynn, UK Managing Director at Charles Schwab, wrote in a note.

All eyes have also been on corporate earnings for signs of resilience in profit margins to surging inflation and weaker sentiment. A record number of US and European firms worth more than $9.4 trillion will report their results on Thursday.

Of these $6.8 trillion are 55 S&P500 companies if constituents of the Nasdaq 100 are included. That comes on the heels of the Fed raising rates by 75 basis points for a second month, saying such a move is possible but that the pace of hikes will slow at some point. Chair Jerome Powell said policy will be set meeting-by-meeting as he tries to control rising prices amid signs of an economic slowdown. Big Tech will be a particular focus again with results from Amazon, Apple and Intel.

“We see the earning season as a mixed bag and it’s not necessarily very good news looking forward because we have an economic momentum that is this decelerating very fast and we also have central banks all around the world hiking interest rates,” Geraldine Sundstrom, portfolio manager for asset allocation strategies at Pimco, said on Bloomberg TV.

“For financial markets, the risk of the Fed taking an overly aggressive stance has eased over the past week due to mixed growth and inflation data,” said Gurpreet Gill, macro strategist of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Growing evidence of slowing demand has curbed the need for speed –- hence the Fed did not provide forward guidance on its policy path.”

The dovish Fed euphoria also helped lift European stocks, which initially faded a strong opening bounce only to recover all gains. Euro Stoxx 600 rose 0.5%, with the FTSE MIB outperforming, adding 0.8%, IBEX lags, dropping 1.3%. Telecoms, food & beverages and utilities are the worst-performing sectors. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources index rose as much as 3.6%, the top-performing sub-index in the benchmark, following well-received results and with metals prices gaining. ArcelorMittal jumped following a cash flow beat and new buyback in its results, while Anglo American gains as its earnings and dividend both topped expectations. Other steel stocks SSAB, Voestalpine higher after ArcelorMittal and after beat from Acerinox. Copper miners KGHM and Antofagasta the biggest gainers with copper price up for fifth day. Here are some of the most notable market movers:

Shell rises as much as 2.2% after the company reported what RBC Capital Markets described as strong results and announced that it will repurchase a further $6 billion of shares in the third quarter.

  • Renewable energy companies’ shares soared following a deal by US senators to advance a bill that will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on energy security and climate change. Vestas Wind Systems stock gained as much as 15%, Nordex +12%, Orsted +6.5%, SMA Solar +7.6%, Meyer Burger +9.3%
  • Schneider Electric shares were up as much as 5.2% after it reported a strong set of results; analysts welcome the increased FY growth targets and the company’s ability to pass on inflation.
  • Diageo rises as much as 2.7% after the British distiller’s FY22 organic sales beat estimates. The group reiterated its medium-term guidance even as it expects a challenging environment for FY23.
  • Stellantis shares gain as much as 4.3%, after the carmaker reported 1H results that Jefferies called “impressive and clean.”
  • TotalEnergies declines as much as 3.8%, after its plan to maintain the pace of buybacks disappointed some analysts amid expectations for accelerated share repurchases in the industry.
  • Airbus shares fall as much as 6.6% in Paris after the aircraft maker cut its full-year delivery projections and pushed back ramping up the A320 build rate to 65 a month from summer 2023 until early 2024.
  • Nestle shares drop as much as 2.2% after the company cut its margin outlook for the year. The results are “mixed,” given the sales beat and increased FY organic revenue forecast, but there are questions around margin, according to analysts.
  • Fresenius Medical Care shares slide as much as 15% after the dialysis services firm issued a guidance downgrade that showed significant cost pressures on many fronts, Truist says in a note.

Ironically, as Europe edges toward a full-blown energy crisis and recession, its manufacturing giants are raking in the cash. Luxury-car leader Mercedes-Benz joined Europe’s biggest chemicals maker BASF, Swiss building-materials producer Holcim, shipping company Hapag-Lloydand others to report a jump in profit and raise earnings forecasts for the year.

The results offered a stark contrast to the wave of grim economic news sweeping across Europe. Confidence in the euro-area fell to the weakest in almost 1 1/2 years as fears of energy shortages haunt consumers and businesses, and the European Central Bank’s first interest-rate increase in a more than decade feeds concerns that a recession is nearing.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also advanced after the Federal Reserve said it will slow the pace of interest-rate increases at some point. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.1%, driven by gains in material and energy stocks. Equity benchmarks in the Philippines and New Zealand led gains in the region as a weakening dollar boosted risk appetite. “The stock markets may reverse their recent falls” following the Fed’s decision, said Heo Pil-Seok, chief executive officer at Midas International Asset Management in Seoul.

“Starting today, we should see if there’s any changes in foreign fund flows, as outflows have somewhat eased recently,” he said, adding however that the stock rally may be short-lived as investors remain cautious on earnings. Gains in Asia were small relative to the rally in US stocks overnight, as investors monitored the latest local earnings along with China’s property crisis and the Covid situation. Asian tech bellwether Samsung Electronics provided a weak demand forecast Thursday, citing uncertainties following a rare earnings miss. Chinese benchmarks were flat amid the Politburo meeting and a possible call between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden.

Elsewhere, traders are awaiting a phone call between President Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping, which could touch on US tariffs and other points of tension.

Japanese equities climbed, following US peers higher on relief after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points and indicated that monetary policy tightening will eventually slow down. The Topix rose 0.2% to 1,948.85 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.4% to 27,815.48 as the yen gained against the dollar, weighing on exporters such as Toyota. Recruit Holdings Co. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 4.4%. Out of 2,169 shares in the index, 1,406 rose and 652 fell, while 111 were unchanged. “It does seem as if the market bottomed out at the end of June,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, a strategist at Asset Management One. “There is a sense that a rise in interest rates is receding worldwide and stocks are also calming down along with that.” Fed Hikes by 75 Basis Points as Powell Sees No US Recession Now

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index revered a drop of 0.6% to trade higher. SEK and DKK are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, JPY maintains outperformance, trading at 135.33/USD.  The yen was around 135.40 per dollar, after strengthening more than 1% to 135.11 in Asia, extending an overnight rise to hit a three-week high. It jumped by a similar amount against the euro and the Australian dollar.

In rates, Treasury yields were little changed to 3bps lower in European trading after dropping on Wednesday. German curve steepens with two-year yields lower after some state inflation gauges slow, while rates at the longer end rise. US 10-year yields are steady at 2.79%.

In commodities, WTI drifts 1.7% higher to trade below $99. Spot gold rises roughly $10 to trade near $1,745/oz. Most base metals trade in the green; LME zinc rises 3%, outperforming peers.

Looking the day ahead, in addition to the US GDP we get core PCE, consumption, and jobless claims in the US. In Europe, German CPI and France PPI are due with the first German regional numbers out just after we press send this morning. Our economists expect MoM CPI at +0.8% in Germany, and +0.5% on the EU harmonized MoM measure.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,011.25

Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,746.23

U.S. Dollar Index down 0.18% to 106.26

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Chair Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve will press on with the steepest tightening of monetary policy in a generation to curb surging inflation, while handing officials more flexibility on coming moves amid signs of a broadening economic slowdown.
  • The yen catapulted higher against major peers on Thursday as lowered expectations for rate hikes caused hedge funds to cover short bets from one of the biggest global macro trades of the year.
  • US Stocks Set to Dip After Biggest Tech Gain Since November 2020
  • Meta Disappoints With Forecast Miss, First-Ever Revenue Drop
  • China Leaders Call for ‘Best’ Growth Outcome at Key Meeting
  • US Offers Russia to Swap Jailed Basketball Star for Arms Deale
  • US Aircraft Carrier Enters South China Sea Amid Taiwan Tensions
  • US Offers Russia to Swap Griner and Whelan for Arms Dealer Bout
  • Barclays Latest Bank to Make Provision for US WhatsApp Fine
  • Yen Roars Back as Hedge Funds Cut and Run From Big Macro Short
  • China-US Deal Needed Soon to Avoid Delistings, Gensler Says
  • Alibaba’s Gains From Primary Listing Plan Wiped out in Two Days
  • Samsung’s Profit Is Latest Tech Casualty to Recession Fears
  • Senate Deal Includes EV Tax Credits Sought by Tesla, Toyota
  • Manchin Backs $369 Billion Energy-Climate Plan, Rejects SALT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded higher across the board following the firm lead from Wall Street. ASX 200 saw firm gains across its Tech, Gold, and Mining sectors. Nikkei 225 gained in early trade and briefly topped the 28k mark before recoiling as the JPY saw a sudden bout of strength. KOSPI benefited from Samsung Electronics’ rise post-earnings, although the firm echoed recent remarks from SK Hynix regarding weaker H2 memory demand. Hang Seng moved on either side of breakeven but later saw an upside bias as Hong Kong Finance Secretary said Hong Kong’s H2 economic performance will be better than H1. Shanghai Comp eventually gained despite the recent cautious commentary from Chinese President Xi.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Politburo says it will keep economic operations in a reasonable range.
  • Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the final budget outcome for 2021/22 likely to show a dramatically better-than-expected outcome.
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) – Q2 2022 (KRW): Revenue 772tln (Co. exp. 77tln); operating profit 14.1tln (exp. 14tln). Net profit 11.1tln (exp. 10.3tln); Chip operating profit 9.98tln (exp. 11.08tln); expects weaker H2 phone/PC memory chip demand.
  • South Korean President Yoon has ordered to take steps against illegal activities regarding stock short selling, via Yonhap.
  • Hong Kong Finance Secretary said Hong Kong’s H2 economic performance will be better than H1; property market fundamentals remain sound. Hong Kong Monetary Chief expects overnight and one-month interbank rate to continue to rise at a much faster pace; says HKD has been stable and has been operating in an orderly manner; public should be prepared for interbank rate to climb further, via Reuters.
  • PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate of 2.10% for a net drain of CNY 1bln.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7411 vs exp. 6.7425 (prev. 6.7731).
  • Japanese government spokesperson says there is currently no plan to impose restrictions on people’s movements following increasing COVID cases; Tokyo COVID cases reach 40,406 vs. previous record of 34,995.

European bourses are modestly softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.10%, but relatively contained now after fading initial gains from the FOMC-inspired upside. Amid numerous earnings updates from Europe & in the US aftermarket. US futures are relatively stable but continue to post modest losses with the NQ -0.8% lagging amid pre-market downside in Meta post-earnings, -6.0%. Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 2.46 (exp. 2.59), Revenue 28.82bln (exp. 28.95bln), Advertising revenue 28.15bln (exp. 28.53bln). Outlook reflects continuation of weak advertising demand environment it experienced throughout Q2. Guidance assumes FX will be about a 6% headwind to Y/Y total revenue growth in Q3. Co. said the economic downturn will have a broad impact on digital advertising business, says the situation seems worse than it did a quarter ago. -6.0% in the pre-market. Jack Ma intends to relinquish control of Ant Group, via WSJ sources; to transfer some voting power to executives, could push-back IPO timing by over a year.

Top European News

  • German consumer energy bill to increase by EUR 1k/year, following a cost shift, via Bloomberg; Effective from October 1st, via Reuters sources; levy will cover 90% of costs. Subsequently, German Economy Minister says the gas level would cost several hundred EURs per household.
  • India to Restart Ukraine Sunflower Oil Imports as Trade Eases
  • Wind, Solar Stocks Surge After US Energy Bill Agreement
  • Vanguard Europe MD Says Climate Is Now ‘the Most Material Risk’
  • Schroders Up; Jefferies Says Results Show Resilience of Platform
  • EDF Posts $1.3 Billion Loss as State Readies Nationalization
  • Turkey Raises 2022 Inflation Forecast to 60.4% on Imports, Lira

Central Banks

  • BoJ Deputy Governor Amamiya said we must not loosen our grip in keeping monetary policy easy as there is no prospect yet of sustainably meeting the 2% inflation target. He added that consumer sentiment has been worsening due to rising energy and food prices. BoJ must be vigilant to financial and forex moves and their impact on economy and prices.
  • ECB’s Visco refrains from saying whether markets should expect a 25bps or 50bps hike in September; not prepared to say the ECB would go for 50bps in September in order to reach its target quicker. Adds, the ECB doesn’t really know where its target is.
  • BoK to strengthen monitoring of FX and capital flows following the FOMC hike, according to Bloomberg.
  • HKMA raised its base rate by 75bps to 2.75%, as expected, following the earlier Fed rate hike.
  • NBH hikes the one-week deposit rate to 10.75% (prev. 9.75%) at tender.
  • CBRT Governor says the bank has enough FX reserves to meet high energy costs and reserves continue to increase.

FX

  • Fed leaves Dollar in limbo with no firm forward guidance and reliant on unfolding macro fundamentals, DXY depressed within 106.580-050 range vs pre-FOMC high of 107.430.
  • Yen outperforms on prospect of less BoJ vs Fed policy divergence, USD/JPY sub-135.50 and key Fib level.
  • Kiwi outpaces Aussie as NZ business outlook and activity turn less downbeat, while Australian retail sales miss consensus and slow to softest pace in 2022 so far; AUD/NZD retreats through 1.1150 as AUD/USD and NZD/USD hover just under 0.7000 and 0.6300 respectively.
  • Pound extends gains against Euro through 0.8400 and chart trend line, but both fade from post-FOMC peaks vs Buck, Cable unable to reach 1.2200 and EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0200.
  • Lira and Forint flounder irrespective of supportive CBRT rhetoric and NBH raising 1-week deposit rate by 100bp, USD/TRY touches 17.9300 in wake of jump in year end Turkish CPI forecast and EUR/HUF approaches 408.00.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds remain volatile post-Fed, but curve steepening the clear trend as markets reset rate expectations to data rather than forward guidance.
  • Bunds choppy within wide 154.75-155.87 extremes, Gilts between 116.70-117.19 parameters and T-note from 119-23+ to 120-08+.
  • US Treasuries also conscious of looming 7 year supply after potentially pivotal Q2 GDP and jobless claims.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are firmer by over 1.5% on the session after spending much of the European morning relatively contained.
  • European gas prices are significantly more contained when compared to price action earlier in the week but remain at elevated levels comfortably above EUR 200/MWh for TTF.
  • Gazprom continues shipping gas to Europe via Ukraine, Thursday’s volume is 42.1MCM (vs Monday’s 42.2MCM).
  • Shell (SHEL LN) has cut gas use at the Rotterdam Pernis (404k BPD) facility by 40% and at German sites by ~70%, due to the ongoing gas situation.
  • India’s gold demand in H2 is seen falling Y/Y due to lower disposable income; H1 gold demand rose 42% Y/Y, according to World Gold Council.
  • Magnitude 6.3 earthquake hits Tocopilla in Chile, according to the EMS; 5.5 magnitude earthquake occurs near Nicaragua coast, via EMSC.
  • Nornickel Q2 production: Nickel 48k tonnes, Palladium 709/koz, via Reuters.
  • Spot gold is bid by just over USD 10/oz but, again, remains subject to USD action as while the index is bid it has dipped markedly.
  • Amidst the USD’s relative weakness, base metals are similarly supported.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 0.5%, prior -1.6%
    • Personal Consumption, est. 1.2%, prior 1.8%
    • PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.4%, prior 5.2%
    • GDP Price Index, est. 8.0%, prior 8.2%
  • 08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 250,000, prior 251,000
    • Continuing Claims, est. 1.39m, prior 1.38m
  • 11:00: July Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 4, prior 12

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Just before the June FOMC, the surprise last minute leak that the Fed were about to hike rates by 75bps shocked yields much higher and equities much lower. However last night’s routine 75bps July FOMC hike was cheered to the rafters by the equity market with yields also falling, especially at the front end. So how times change! Today we could see confirmation of the start of a technical recession in US with Q2 GDP out, and also German CPI which might show some signs of falling before we think it hits new highs again in the autumn. So a busy day.

Back to the Fed and the expected 75bps hike brings the rate into territory that some Committee members may deem ‘neutral’ (Our full US econ review, here). The statement maintained guidance that the Committee sees further rate hikes, and thus moves into restrictive territory, as appropriate, even as the statement opened by acknowledging that some activity data had softened. Nothing in the statement came as a particular surprise, leaving equities and rates little changed upon release with the bulk of the rally after the press conference started.

At the press conference, the Chair left open the possibility of another super-charged 75bp hike (or larger) in September, but demurred on providing forward guidance, saying that the Committee would be making policy decisions on a meeting-per-meeting basis. A tacit acceptance of what they have already been doing, to an extent. Nevertheless, the Chair did note that the SEP from June, that shows policy getting to between 3% and 3.5% by the end of year, and a terminal rate of 3.8% was probably still the best guide for the path of policy.

Despite the continued insistence on more hikes being necessary, and inflation being much too high, markets instead latched onto the fact that the Committee was cognisant of the signs of slowing growth in the economy, and that the Fed would logically slow the path of tightening at some point. Upon this, markets priced in a shallower policy path, which saw 2yr Treasuries -5.5bps lower on the day, with 10yr yields down -2.2bps, and no more rate hikes in 2023 after hitting a terminal rate of 3.3%. What was left unsaid is that slowing growth has to translate to slowing inflation for the FOMC to pivot policy. That cuts are being priced in within six months when inflation is still climbing from lofty levels seems too optimistic. However this very much fits it with the current market narrative so this doesn’t feel the time to fight it.

That optimistic pricing path drove US equities through the roof after the FOMC, with the NASDAQ ending the day +4.06% higher, climbing around +1.58% after the FOMC events, it’s best daily return since April 2020, while the FANG+ was up +5.30%, its best day in two months. Tech stocks outperformed given the sensitivity of their valuations to rate policy, but the broad S&P 500 climbed +2.62% as well, with every sector in the green.

After the FOMC, Meta missed analyst estimates, posting its first ever decline in sales over a quarter, and traded around -4.5% lower in after-hours trading. In the release the company also noted hiring has slowed this year much like its other mega cap brethren. This morning, S&P 500 futures are trading -0.14% lower, with Meta having taken some shine out of the post-FOMC glow.

Elsewhere overnight, Senator Joe Manchin reportedly reached a deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on a tax and spending plan focused on climate spending, capping health care costs, while raising additional tax revenue. This will be a huge story out of Washington heading into the fall midterms, and the overall impact of the bill – which is being structured to pass through the reconciliation process and thus with a simple majority – will be assessed over coming days as more people get eyes on it. An announcement that came out of the blue after Senator Manchin shot down reconciliation efforts in light of growing inflation time and again. One we will surely be talking about more over the near-term.

Ahead of the FOMC, equities were higher on both sides of the Atlantic on buoyant sentiment following optimistic forecasts from tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet the night before. European equities closed modestly higher across the board, with the STOXX 600 closing up +0.47%, the DAX +0.53% higher, and the CAC up +0.75%. The big focus in Europe remained on the gas situation. A German government spokesperson acknowledged there had been a reduction of gas supplies from Russia and noted there was no technical reason for Russia to cut supplies. European natural gas futures climbed another +2.54% on the day to €205.

Core European and Treasury yield curves were flatter heading into the Fed, with 2yr bund yields climbing +8.7bps and 10yr bunds +2.0bps higher to 0.94%. The spread widening in BTPs continued, with 10yr BTPs +5.5bps wider to bunds at 236bps, just under 5bps from their widest levels reached in mid-June.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields were lower across the curve, with the curve even more inverted. The data out before the Fed was never going to be the main driver of rates on the day, and they painted a mixed picture. Housing continued its torrid run, with pending home sales down -8.6% MoM versus expectations of -1.0%. Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders expanded 1.9% versus -0.4% expectations, while inventories increased 1.9% as well versus 1.5% expectations. Those data helped some GDP trackers, with the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast for 2Q GDP increasing to -1.2% from -1.6% following the data. We get the first advance reading of US 2Q GDP today, but know today’s reading will be subject to many revisions before we have the final figure. 10yr TSY yields are little changed at 2.78% as we go to press this morning.

Brent crude futures climbed +2.13% to $107/bbl, following EIA data that showed inventories fell by 4.52mln barrels, while demand for gasoline in the US looks more robust than some recent survey measures have suggested, putting more upward pressure on energy. Finally, a Biden aide said the Iran deal was not likely to return in the near future, effectively keeping potential additional supply from hitting the market for longer.

Asian equity markets are trading higher this morning following the Fed. Stocks in mainland China are gaining with the Shanghai Composite (+0.89%) and the CSI (+0.95%) both up whilst the Nikkei (+0.32%), the Hang Seng (+0.20%) and the Kospi (+0.97%) all edging higher.

Early morning data showed that retail sales in Australia rose +0.2% m/m in June, its slowest pace this year and down from May’s downwardly revised +0.7% pace of growth and falling short of markets expectations of a +0.5% increase. The soft data represents that soaring inflation and rising interest rates may be finally hampering consumer demand.

To the day ahead, in addition to the US GDP we get core PCE, consumption, and jobless claims in the US. In Europe, German CPI and France PPI are due with the first German regional numbers out just after we press send this morning. Our economists expect MoM CPI at +0.8% in Germany, and +0.5% on the EU harmonized MoM measure.

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Modest but contained equity pressure as numerous earnings factor, Biden-Xi ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 06:58 AM

  • European bourses are modestly softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.10%, but relatively contained now after fading initial gains from the FOMC-inspired upside
  • US futures are relatively stable but continue to post modest losses with the NQ -0.7% lagging amid pre-market downside in Meta post-earnings, -6.0%.
  • USD is firmer on the session but pulling back from recent ranges to the modest benefit of peers while JPY extends on potentially reduced policy divergence
  • Core debt remains choppy but continues to feature noted curve steepening with 7yr supply ahead
  • TTF comparably contained with no new Nord Stream 1 developments thus far while crude is supported on the USD, China & shell CEO
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German State CPI, US Q2 GDP Advance, Q2 PCE, US IJC, Biden-Xi call (time TBC), supply from the US.
  • Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Intel, and more

As of 11:20BST/06:20ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

  • German State CPI, US Q2 GDP Advance, Q2 PCE, US IJC, Biden-Xi call, supply from he US.
  • Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Intel, and more
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Russia said it received no formal request from the US regarding a meeting between Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Blinken, via Tass.

OTHER

  • China will hold military exercises in designated areas in the South China Sea on Fri and Sat, according to the Maritime Safety Administration cited by Global Times.
  • North Korean Leader says the South Korean admin and military will be totally destroyed if they try “dangerous attempts”, via Yonhap; prepared for any military clash with the US.

EUROPEAN TRADE

CENTRAL BANKS

  • BoJ Deputy Governor Amamiya said we must not loosen our grip in keeping monetary policy easy as there is no prospect yet of sustainably meeting the 2% inflation target. He added that consumer sentiment has been worsening due to rising energy and food prices. BoJ must be vigilant to financial and forex moves and their impact on economy and prices.
  • ECB’s Visco refrains from saying whether markets should expect a 25bps or 50bps hike in September; not prepared to say the ECB would go for 50bps in September in order to reach its target quicker. Adds, the ECB doesn’t really know where its target is.
  • BoK to strengthen monitoring of FX and capital flows following the FOMC hike, according to Bloomberg.
  • HKMA raised its base rate by 75bps to 2.75%, as expected, following the earlier Fed rate hike.
  • NBH hikes the one-week deposit rate to 10.75% (prev. 9.75%) at tender.
  • CBRT Governor says the bank has enough FX reserves to meet high energy costs and reserves continue to increase.

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are modestly softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.10%, but relatively contained now after fading initial gains from the FOMC-inspired upside. Amid numerous earnings updates from Europe & in the US aftermarket.
  • US futures are relatively stable but continue to post modest losses with the NQ -0.8% lagging amid pre-market downside in Meta post-earnings, -6.0%.
  • Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 2.46 (exp. 2.59), Revenue 28.82bln (exp. 28.95bln), Advertising revenue 28.15bln (exp. 28.53bln). Outlook reflects continuation of weak advertising demand environment it experienced throughout Q2. Guidance assumes FX will be about a 6% headwind to Y/Y total revenue growth in Q3. Co. said the economic downturn will have a broad impact on digital advertising business, says the situation seems worse than it did a quarter ago. -6.0% in the pre-market
  • Jack Ma intends to relinquish control of Ant Group, via WSJ sources; to transfer some voting power to executives, could push-back IPO timing by over a year.
  • Note, there has been a substantial amount of notable European earnings please click here and here for more detail.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Fed leaves Dollar in limbo with no firm forward guidance and reliant on unfolding macro fundamentals, DXY depressed within 106.580-050 range vs pre-FOMC high of 107.430.
  • Yen outperforms on prospect of less BoJ vs Fed policy divergence, USD/JPY sub-135.50 and key Fib level.
  • Kiwi outpaces Aussie as NZ business outlook and activity turn less downbeat, while Australian retail sales miss consensus and slow to softest pace in 2022 so far; AUD/NZD retreats through 1.1150 as AUD/USD and NZD/USD hover just under 0.7000 and 0.6300 respectively.
  • Pound extends gains against Euro through 0.8400 and chart trend line, but both fade from post-FOMC peaks vs Buck, Cable unable to reach 1.2200 and EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0200.
  • Lira and Forint flounder irrespective of supportive CBRT rhetoric and NBH raising 1-week deposit rate by 100bp, USD/TRY touches 17.9300 in wake of jump in year end Turkish CPI forecast and EUR/HUF approaches 408.00.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 1.0050-55 (547M), 1.0200 (844M), 1.0250 (620M), 1.0300-05 (1.30BN)
  • USD/JPY: 136.20 (1.40BN)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bonds remain volatile post-Fed, but curve steepening the clear trend as markets reset rate expectations to data rather than forward guidance.
  • Bunds choppy within wide 154.75-155.87 extremes, Gilts between 116.70-117.19 parameters and T-note from 119-23+ to 120-08+.
  • US Treasuries also conscious of looming 7 year supply after potentially pivotal Q2 GDP and jobless claims.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent are firmer by over 1.5% on the session after spending much of the European morning relatively contained.
  • European gas prices are significantly more contained when compared to price action earlier in the week but remain at elevated levels comfortably above EUR 200/MWh for TTF.
  • Gazprom continues shipping gas to Europe via Ukraine, Thursday’s volume is 42.1MCM (vs Monday’s 42.2MCM).
  • Shell (SHEL LN) has cut gas use at the Rotterdam Pernis (404k BPD) facility by 40% and at German sites by ~70%, due to the ongoing gas situation.
  • India’s gold demand in H2 is seen falling Y/Y due to lower disposable income; H1 gold demand rose 42% Y/Y, according to World Gold Council.
  • Magnitude 6.3 earthquake hits Tocopilla in Chile, according to the EMS; 5.5 magnitude earthquake occurs near Nicaragua coast, via EMSC.
  • Nornickel Q2 production: Nickel 48k tonnes, Palladium 709/koz, via Reuters.
  • Spot gold is bid by just over USD 10/oz but, again, remains subject to USD action as while the index is bid it has dipped markedly.
  • Amidst the USD’s relative weakness, base metals are similarly supported.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • German consumer energy bill to increase by EUR 1k/year, following a cost shift, via Bloomberg; Effective from October 1st, via Reuters sources; levy will cover 90% of costs. Subsequently, German Economy Minister says the gas level would cost several hundred EURs per household.

DATA RECAP:

  • EU Consumer Confidence Final (Jul) -27.0 vs. Exp. -27.0 (Prev. -27.0, Rev. -23.8)
  • German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI MM (Jul) 1.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
  • German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Jul) 7.8% (Prev. 7.5%) Subsequent state release have been more mixed vs prev. for the YY; reminder, headline is expected at 7.4% (prev. 7.6%) YY., HICP at 8.1% (prev. 8.2%) YY.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US Senate Democrat Manchin and Senate Democratic leader Schumer’s reconciliation bill will invest around USD 300bln in deficit reduction, USD 369.7bln in energy security and climate change. It will close tax loopholes on wealthy individuals and corporations. The bill will be submitted for parliamentary review on Wednesday; Senate will consider it next week, according to Reuters. US President Biden said he spoke today with Senate Majority Leader Schumer and Senator Manchin to offer support for the Inflation Reduction Act; urged for this to pass as soon as possible.
  • US House Republican leadership will now whip against the CHIPS+ bill, urging lawmakers to vote against it after the reconciliation deal was announced, according to Punchbowl’s Sherman.
  • “Bankers close to Musk say he knows it will be an uphill battle to win outright against Twitter (TWTR) and his game plan is to force TWTR to agree to terms below his initial USD 54.20 bid…”, according FBN’s Gasparino.
  • The Biden admin is expected to declare monkeypox a public health emergency, according to sources cited by Politico.
  • Former US Republicans and Democrats will on Wednesday announce a third party, called “Forward”, to appeal to voters who they say are dismayed with the two-party system, according to Reuters sources.
  • House Democrats plan to announce a proposal next month to ban lawmakers, their spouses and senior staff from trading stocks, according to Punchbowl sources.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks eventually traded higher across the board following the firm lead from Wall Street.
  • ASX 200 saw firm gains across its Tech, Gold, and Mining sectors.
  • Nikkei 225 gained in early trade and briefly topped the 28k mark before recoiling as the JPY saw a sudden bout of strength.
  • KOSPI benefited from Samsung Electronics’ rise post-earnings, although the firm echoed recent remarks from SK Hynix regarding weaker H2 memory demand.
  • Hang Seng moved on either side of breakeven but later saw an upside bias as Hong Kong Finance Secretary said Hong Kong’s H2 economic performance will be better than H1.
  • Shanghai Comp eventually gained despite the recent cautious commentary from Chinese President Xi.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • Chinese Politburo says it will keep economic operations in a reasonable range. Click here for more detail.
  • Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the final budget outcome for 2021/22 likely to show a dramatically better-than-expected outcome.
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) – Q2 2022 (KRW): Revenue 772tln (Co. exp. 77tln); operating profit 14.1tln (exp. 14tln). Net profit 11.1tln (exp. 10.3tln); Chip operating profit 9.98tln (exp. 11.08tln); expects weaker H2 phone/PC memory chip demand.
  • South Korean President Yoon has ordered to take steps against illegal activities regarding stock short selling, via Yonhap.
  • Hong Kong Finance Secretary said Hong Kong’s H2 economic performance will be better than H1; property market fundamentals remain sound. Hong Kong Monetary Chief expects overnight and one-month interbank rate to continue to rise at a much faster pace; says HKD has been stable and has been operating in an orderly manner; public should be prepared for interbank rate to climb further, via Reuters.
  • PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate of 2.10% for a net drain of CNY 1bln.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7411 vs exp. 6.7425 (prev. 6.7731).
  • Japanese government spokesperson says there is currently no plan to impose restrictions on people’s movements following increasing COVID cases; Tokyo COVID cases reach 40,406 vs. previous record of 34,995.

DATA RECAP

  • Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Jun) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.9%)
  • Australian Import Prices (Q2) 4.3% (Prev. 5.1%); Export Prices (Q2) 10.1% (Prev. 18.0%)
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Jul) -56.7% (Prev. -62.6%); Own Activity (Jul) -8.7% (Prev. -9.1%)

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.62 PTS OR 0.21%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 47.36 OR 0.23%    /The Nikkei closed UP 99.73 OR % 0.36.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.11%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.7486//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7545//    /Oil UP TO 99.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 108.38// SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.62 PTS OR 0.21%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 47.36 OR 0.23%    /The Nikkei closed UP 99.73 OR % 0362.          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.11%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

This will become quite dangerous for China:  their youth unemployment has now hit a record 19.3%.

Zero hedge explains how this happened!

(zerohedge)

Why China’s Youth Unemployment Has Hit A Record 19.3%

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 08:35 PM

China has a new pandemic to worry about: Unemployment, underemployment and disillusionment is steadily spreading throughout China’s highly-educated youngest generation. 

As with most dismal economic circumstances, this one is largely the fault of government. As Bloomberg explains: 

A perfect storm of factors has propelled unemployment among 16- to 24-year-old urbanites to a record 19.3%, more than twice the comparable rate in the US. The government’s hardline coronavirus strategy has led to layoffs, while its regulatory crackdown on real estate and education companies has hit the private sector.

At the same time, a record number of college and vocational school graduates — some 12 million — are entering the job market this summer. This highly educated cohort has intensified a mismatch between available roles and jobseekers’ expectations.  

China’s maximalist approach to combatting Covid fell hardest on private companies, which were more likely to lay off workers than entities owned by the government. At the same time, the government hammered private internet companies with penalties for alleged monopolistic actions, and cut off financing for private real estate ventures. 

That’s had a marked effect on the career preferences of young Chinese. Bloomberg reports a whopping 39% of college grads now say state-owned companies are at the top of their list of preferred employers. 

Young people are also applying in droves to work directly for the government: The number of college grads applying for civil servant positions this year is 39% above last year’s total. Chasing a generation away from the country’s most innovative and entrepreneurial employers will have long-lasting, negative consequences for the Chinese economy.  

Meanwhile, China’s youth comprise the country’s most educated generation ever, with a 60% attendance rate that’s comparable to developed economies. However, there aren’t enough jobs to match this enormous talent pool’s potential. 

In a parallel to the United States, too few Chinese are attending vocational schools, which have been deeply stigmatized by society, along with the factory jobs they enable. Add it all up, and China has far too many applicants for IT positions and too few willing to fill open positions for those who build and repair things. 

The government has trotted out subsidies and tax rebates to encourage hiring, but the rewards are so small they’re not going to move the needle much. 

Cultivating dampened expectations, Chinese President Xi Jinping last month counseled new graduates to “prevent the situation in which one is unfit for a higher position but unwilling to take a lower one…to get rich and get fame overnight is not realistic.” 

A sort of listlessness is taking hold, summarized by a Chinese phrase that became popular last year: “tang ping,” which translates into “lying flat.” It’s emblematic of a lifestyle that eschews the rat race and embraces low expectations for professional and financial success.

As youth unemployment steadily rises, Bloomberg reports a more ominous phrase is now emerging: “bailan.” It means “let it rot.”  

end

Xi Warns Biden “Those Who Play With Fire Will Get Burned” In 2+ Hour Call

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 01:00 PM

In a surprisingly longish phone call at over two hours, Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden focused on the geopolitical flashpoints of Taiwan and Ukraine on Thursday, speaking by phone for the fifth time. Both sides agreed the call was “candid” and “in-depth”, and concluded by agreeing to stay in touch. However, China state sources are reporting that – in a moment perhaps intent on humiliating the US administration – Xi warned Biden “those who play with fire will get burned.”

Bloomberg cited Xi as saying, based on early Chinese state media reports, that “China firmly opposes separatist moves toward Taiwan independence and interference by external forces, and never allows any room for Taiwan independence forces in whatever form.” As usual, Biden was urged to stick by the one-China policy, with the US president reiterating that the US intends to.

In the face of Xi’s firm words on the Taiwan issue, Biden affirmed that the United States does not back Taiwan independence

Not only did Xi again lay down China’s ‘red lines’ on Taiwan, but the Chinese leader stressed Beijing vehemently opposes the “intervention of other powers,” according to quotes in China state media.

The warning comes just hours after the USS Ronald Reagan nuclear-powered ‘super carrier’ has entered waters of the South China Sea, triggering PLA snap military drills in the area in response. After multiple US Navy sail-throughs of both the Taiwan Strait and near the Paracel islands this summer, Beijing has ramped up its rhetoric threatening a “forceful response” – particularly if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi follows through with her trip to Taipei next month. 

Axios writes of the context to Thursday’s call, “The Chinese government has repeatedly vowed to take control of the island, by force if necessary, and it reacts furiously to any gesture that seems to treat Taiwan as an independent state.” And further, “There was also speculation ahead of the call about the potential easing of U.S. tariffs on China, though the White House dampened any expectation that major announcements would result from this conversation.”

From Beijing’s point of view Xi put Biden on notice over all these recent US maneuvers, saying in essence I’m the captain now

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

/GERMANY//GAZPROM//RUSSIA//GERMANY/EU//update

A good article: EU prepares for a tough winter as Gazprom 1 deliveries fall to 20% of capacity

(Kemp/)

EU Prepares Public For Winter Gas Siege

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 02:00 AM

By John Kemp, senior market analyst

European Union policymakers have started to prepare the public for siege conditions this winter if gas supplies from Russia are completely cut, an effort to demonstrate diplomatic resolve as well as avoid panic later in the year.

In recent weeks, officials from Germany and other EU member states have begun to talk openly and urgently about the need for immediate reductions in consumption in advance of the peak winter heating season.

They have also started to plan publicly for compulsory allocation, including rationing and prioritization among industrial users, as well as sharing among member states in the event there is not enough gas to supply everyone.

The stated reason is to accelerate the accumulation of inventories over the remainder of the summer to ensure European countries enter the winter with the highest possible inventories.

In reality, inventories are rising relatively rapidly and are already above the long-term seasonal average in most member states and across the region as a whole.

Inventories across the EU and the United Kingdom (EU28) stood at 751 terawatt-hours (TWh) on July 24 compared with a ten-year seasonal average of 698 TWh.

EU28 stocks were rising at a rate of 5.11 TWh per day in the seven days to July 24 compared with a ten-year seasonal average of 4.61 TWh.

In Germany, the largest stock holder, inventories of 161 TWh were above the long-term average of 145 TWh, and rising at 0.6 TWh per day, compared with a long-term average of 0.72 TWh per day.

On current trends, the European Union as a whole, and Germany in particular, are already likely to enter the winter with above average levels of gas in storage.

The problem is that it will not be enough if pipeline supplies from Russia are cut completely.

EU storage is designed to cope with seasonal swings in consumption not to withstand a war-like strategic blockade.

EU storage sites are currently filled to 67% of their maximum capacity, including 67% in Germany, 71% in Italy and 76% in France.

But current storage is equivalent to just 18% of annual consumption for the European Union as a whole, including 16% in Germany, 18% in Italy and 21% in France.

Even if storage sites can be filled to 90% or more of their maximum, inventories cannot withstand semi-blockade conditions for more than a few months without being depleted to critically low levels or exhausted completely.  And if storage lasts through the winter of 2022/23 it would still need to be rebuilt before the winter of 2023/24, which would be extremely difficult under siege conditions.

Therefore, the unstated reason for the recent talk about consumption cuts and possible rationing is that large-scale and sustained demand reductions are the only way to withstand a possible gas siege. 

Public planning for reduced consumption and compulsory allocation is intended to signal resolve and deter Russia from attempting a siege in the first place.

In the event one occurs anyway, it is intended to harden public opinion for the privations ahead, including some physical discomfort, significantly higher utility bills, and a severe economic contraction.

END

This is not good:  EU consumer confidence crashes and then another dandy:German CPI reaccelerates

(zerohedge)

(zerohedge)

EU Consumer Confidence Crashes To Record Lows As German CPI Unexpectedly Re-Accelerates

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 09:05 AM

Economic Sentiment in the euro-area economy tumbled to the weakest in almost 1 1/2 years as fears of energy shortages haunt consumers and businesses, and the European Central Bank’s first interest-rate increase in a more than decade feeds concerns that a recession is nearing.

The drop was led by a collapse in consumer confidence to a new record low – worse than at the peak of the COVID lockdown crisis…

Source: Bloomberg

Specifically, Bloomberg notes that worries that an economic contraction is on the horizon grew in 11 of the euro zone’s 19 countries – also the highest level since COVID…

Source: Bloomberg

Adding to that, it appears Goldman Sachs is not afraid to use the ‘r-word’ when talking about the European economy as they warn this morning that a European “Recession is Coming”

The growth outlook has continued to deteriorate and we now look for a Euro area recession in H2.

First, the incoming activity data has weakened significantly further in recent days. The area-wide composite flash PMI fell below 50 in July, driven primarily by a sharp weakening of growth in Germany. While the softening in industrial activity has been in train for some time, the marked slowing in services growth was a surprise, suggesting that the post-Omicron bounce in services is now mostly behind us. Moreover, global growth momentum has continued to weaken—reinforcing our below-consensus forecasts for the US and China—consistent with a further sharp drop in Euro area PMI new export orders. Our current activity indicator (CAI) now stands at 0.6% for the Euro area as a whole—and at -1.6% in Germany—with the forward-looking surveys pointing to more slowing ahead.

Second, reduced supply of Russian gas and high gas prices are set to weigh markedly on activity in coming quarters…

Finally, piling on all the pain for The ECB, German inflation unexpectedly re-accelerated in July with EU-Harmonized CPI rising 8.5% YoY (considerably worse than the expected deceleration from +8.2% to +8.1%)…

Source: Bloomberg

A big jump in food and energy costs drove the surprise, more than offsetting temporary fuel-tax rebates and subsidized public-transport tickets.

“Even the drop in the national measure is not the start of the end but rather just government-induced temporary relief,” ING’s global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said in an emailed report to clients.

Beyond Germany, Italy and Spain are expected to report fresh inflation records on Friday. For the euro area as a whole, economists reckon price growth accelerated to 8.7% in July.

So Christine is hiking rates into stagflation… and promising to buy Italian bonds no matter what happens in some magical ‘save the EU’ strategy.

 This won’t end well.

Power bill for just one month could soar to £500 in January after Russia cuts back Europe’s supplies | Daily Mail Online

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:34 AM (12 hours ago)
to

This will bite hard this winter.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11055627/Power-bill-just-one-month-soar-500-January-Russia-cuts-Europes-supplies.html

Cheers

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

EU/RUSSIA

The EU sanctions Russian TV and Sputnik.  This angered Russia to no end voicing the lack of free speech. Now Russia threatens to block western media from broadcasting

in their country.

(zerohedge)

Russia Threatens Western Media Crackdown After EU Court Upholds RT Ban

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Starting in March the European Union imposed a ban on Russia’s two major international state-funded broadcasters RT and Sputnik as part of what was then the 6th round of anti-Russia sanctions. Later in May, the EU added to its growing Russian media blacklist the broadcasters RTR Planeta, Russia 24 and TV Centre. 

In rolling out the ban months ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described of the crackdown, “We are banning three big Russian state-owned broadcasters from our airwaves. They will not be allowed to distribute their content anymore in the EU, in whatever shape or form, be it on cable, via satellite, on the internet or via smartphone apps.” She said, “We have identified these TV channels as mouthpieces, that amplify [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s lies and propaganda aggressively. We should not give them a stage anymore to spread these lies.”

In March, RT America shut down its broadcast studio in Washington D.C. as US Congress moved to de-platform Russian state media, which also resulted even in its YouTube channel being blocked around the world (with Sputnik suffering the same fate). A majority of Western countries have at this point permanently blocked RT and Sputnik.

On Wednesday, the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg threw out an appeal which RT filed arguing that the ban should be lifted on free press and speech grounds. The appeal was made by RT France:

The General Court dismisses as unfounded the complaint alleging a lack of competence on the part of the Council.

The EU authorities were therefore not required to hear RT France prior to the decision temporarily to prohibit it from any form of content broadcasting. Consequently, the Court states that there has been no infringement of RT France’s right to be heard.

As regards the complaint alleging that the statement of reasons for the contested acts is insufficient with regard to RT France, the General Court points out that that statement can be understood and is sufficiently precise,

The condition that the limitations on the freedom of expression must be laid down by law is satisfied. The General Court adds that the nature and extent of the temporary prohibition at issue comply with the essential content of the freedom of expression and do not call that particular freedom into question.

But the Kremlin has blasted the politicized nature of the court’s rejection of the appeal, and has vowed to apply similar restrictions on Western media outlets operating in Russia. Broadly, EU officials have argued that Russian state-linked sources haven’t been “impartial” in reporting the war in Ukraine and thus are “disinformation”.

“Of course, we will take similar measures of pressure on Western media that operate in our country,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, as cited in AFP. Peskov further charged Europe with failing to uphold its own values in the case of RT:

“We will also not let them work in our country,” he said, describing the Kremlin’s reaction to the ban as “extremely negative.”

“Essentially, RT has been blocked and cannot operate in Europe,” Peskov said. “Europeans are trampling on their own ideals.”

The ongoing past months of tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions between Moscow and the West could now morph into something dangerously parallel when it comes to the press and foreign correspondents, whether in Russia or in Europe.

END

The author is correct: both Ukraine and Europe are losing the war.

(Oscar Silva/Ron Paul Institute)

Ukraine Is Losing The War… And So Is Europe

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 04:00 AM

Authored by Oscar Silva-Valladares via The Ron Paul Institute,

Beyond the damage in Ukraine, the war also has significant casualties in the rest of Europe as the continent is losing its most competitive energy supplies, compromising the region’s manufacturing edge and accelerating an inflation wave that through higher energy costs will severely affect the wellbeing of its population this coming winter.

Europe has been trying for years to diversify its energy sources but it did not have a comprehensive contingency plan to counteract the impact of abruptly severing access to Russia’s oil and gas since the beginning of the Ukraine war. European politicians have grossly exaggerated the substitution potential of other energy sources (like LNG) and are facing the need to accept alternatives that not too long ago were considered politically unpalatable, like the reopening of coal production in Germany.

How did this gross miscalculation took place?

Clearly, the European leadership has been unable to foresee the true economic consequences in Europe and beyond of the economic war unleashed against Russia. One explanation for the boldness and self-confidence surrounding the European standing against Russia at the beginning of the war was a strong belief that the combination of anti-Russian sanctions and military support to Ukraine would cause a significant weakening of Russia’s political, social and military standing leading to its defeat. This explains for instance bold statements that the war would only be solved in the field as it was confidently said by the EU’s foreign affairs representative back in March.

It can be argued that the wrong assessment on the war outcome has its roots in faulty US-British intelligence which forecasted Russia’s defeat through economic warfare and, therefore, a limited impact of sanctions on Europe. This not being the case has now made European leadership to scramble for solutions. Meanwhile, the political fallout is already taking place, with Britain and Italy’s prime ministers being the most visible casualties as victims of domestic political events unleashed by their own Russian sanctions. More importantly, it doesn’t seem that the remaining European leadership (led by von der Leyen, Macron and Scholz) is willing to change course without losing significant credibility.

On the other hand, dissenting and unorthodox European political views are sounding louder, as Hungarian prime minister Orban’s recent speech where he boldly mentioned that Russian sanctions and arming Ukraine have failed, Ukraine can’t win the war, the more weapons go to Ukraine the more territory it will lose and that the West should stop arming Ukraine and focus on diplomacy.

At the heart of Europe’s current troubles is its inability to balance its economic and security interests with enough autonomy to be able to look after its own interests. European ambiguity is not new, has its roots on the post-World War II architecture and the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and in relation to Ukraine it manifested in its ineptitude to enforce the Minsk agreements that clearly offered a Russo-Ukrainian peace path but were unable to be enforced by France and Germany due to relentless US and Ukrainian pressure.

It seems that only significant political alterations in the European countries that matter -namely France, Germany and Italy- will allow a meaningful change of course from the current path of confrontation with Russia and ultimately economic self-destruction. Otherwise, any political initiative towards solving the war will be left in the hands of Russia and the United States and, if that is the case, any lasting agreement will not have European interests at heart. It would be tragic that a core European problem like the Ukraine war is finally solved through the dealings of an Euro-Asian and an American power.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

A good commentary as to what happened these past two years

(Jeffrey Tucker EpochTimes)

Fauci, Birx, & The Small-Print That Destroyed America

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 10:55 PM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

In a maddening interview yesterday, Anthony Fauci performed his usual song and dance when faced with even the most mild questioning. He stonewalled in his trademarked way.

He spoke in long, drawn-out sentences, emphasizing the word consonants, punctuated by pauses and silences that convey the sense of precision without the reality. He strung together terms that seem vaguely scientific which intimidated his interviewers into an overly cautious pose.

“Oh wow, I’m interviewing a very powerful person,” the interviewer thinks, “so I had better not say anything wrong!”

He’s been pulling this trick for 40 years. He is very good at it.

In this interview, several messages stands out: 1) in retrospect, we should have locked down even more, 2) he never pushed lockdowns; he was only passing on CDC guidance, and 3) he is utterly and completely blameless for all things, particularly in funding gain-of-function research which, in any case, is not responsible for the creation of the virus in Wuhan.

The first part is startling because many of us have had the sense that lockdowns are in disrepute. Far from it: Fauci’s message is that next time, the lockdowns will be harder and longer. And there certainly will be more. The third part I feel sure will be revealed in time. The fear that the virus escaped from the lab is likely what drove the lockdowns agenda.

What intrigues me the most is the second part, the claim that he never ordered lockdowns. This was the CDC and he only served as messenger. Everyone else is to blame for anything that went wrong.

In a second interview the same day, Fauci says this explicitly: “All I have ever done, if you go back and look at everything I’ve ever done, was to recommend common-sense, good CDC-recommended public health policies that have saved millions of lives. If you want to investigate me for that, go ahead.”

I’m going back to the March 16, 2020, press conference at which Fauci, Deborah Birx, and Donald Trump are announcing a fundamental change of life in the United States, one that would disregard all normal rights and liberties. It’s not entirely clear, to me in any case, that Trump knew what was happening even then. He had a sense that he was doing something to stop the spread but he didn’t know entirely what.

This has always puzzled me. It’s one thing for him to be hornswoggled into greenlighting the destruction of the economy that was booming and roaring under his administration. That’s bad enough. But to be confused even about the details of what he was ordering that day is next-level stuff.

The following exchange occurred that day. Trump is asked whether restaurants and other venues should close. Trump responds: “Right now we don’t have an order one way or the other. We don’t have an order, but I think it’s probably better that you don’t [go to restaurants].”

From that, I gather that Trump believed that he was not forcing anything on anyone.

A reporter asks for a clarification: “Telling people to avoid restaurants and bars is a different thing than saying that bars and restaurants should shut down over the next 15 days. So why was it seen as being imprudent or not necessarily to take that additional step offered at additional guidance?”

At this point, Trump demurs and turns over the microphone to Deborah Birx, who must not have been paying attention and says something vague about the virus living on hard surfaces.

At this point, Fauci interrupts and says: “I just want, there’s an answer to this.”

Fauci says the following: “The small print here. It’s really small print. ‘In states with evidence of community transmission, bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms and other indoor and outdoor venues where groups of people congregate should be closed.’”

This was obviously a very startling thing to say—it means the end of regular life—but it is not clear that Trump was paying attention. A reporter asked a follow-up question. “So Mr. President, are you telling governors in those states then to close all their restaurants and their bars?”

Trump says: “Well we haven’t said that yet … we’re recommending things. No, we haven’t gone to that step yet. That could happen, but we haven’t gone there yet.”

I take from this exchange that Trump did not believe that he was calling for lockdowns. However, he believed that he might. And yet Fauci himself had just read from the CDC guidelines that called for exactly that.

Curious, I looked up the guidelines to which Fauci referred. It is a two-page PDF that was sent all over the country, the one labeled “15 Days to Flatten the Curve.”

They are here reproduced in graphic form:

The only part that truly matters is the section with a black background with white print, the part that looks like boilerplate fluff. It was not. It was the scraping of freedom itself.

As he demonstrated at the press conference, Fauci knew this fine print was there. He might even have been the one to make sure it was there and that it was too small for Trump to read. No question that Trump had no idea that it was there. He makes clear in the press conference that he didn’t know it was there. Even after Fauci highlighted its existence, Trump remained oblivious.

What does the fine print say? It’s the full loaf: lockdown.

“School operations can accelerate the spread of the coronavirus. Governors of states with evidence of community transmission should close schools in affected and surrounding areas. Governors should close schools in communities that are near areas of community transmission, even if those areas are in neighboring states. In addition, state and local officials should close schools where coronavirus has been identified in the population associated with the school. States and localities that close schools need to address childcare needs of critical responders, as well as the nutritional needs of children.”

“Older people are particularly at risk from the coronavirus. All states should follow Federal guidance and halt social visits to nursing homes and retirement and long-term care facilities.”

“In states with evidence of community transmission, bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms, and other indoor and outdoor venues where groups of people congregate should be closed.”

Consider the implications of this. Your mother is in the nursing home that you are paying for. But now you are even banned by the government from visiting. It’s an utterly shocking violation of human rights. You are deploying the state to separate families, as in a dystopian novel. It’s a death sentence.

As for schools, astounding. There was never any evidence that schools spread death and, in any case, we already knew that the risk of COVID to kids is near zero. Sweden never closed schools and not a single death resulted. And yet in the United States, the kids were denied education and likely traumatized for life.

As for the last sentence banning all gatherings—sports, weddings, funerals, gyms, malls—and completely wrecking all enterprise, this is an edict worthy of history’s most horrible despots in the annals of history.

And it was all buried right there in tiny print, so small the president of the United States didn’t even read it. What’s more, no one in his inner circle at the time read it. Surely, Fauci and Birx knew it was there. Any reporter in the room could have read it. It was only a few sentences but they overrode the U.S. Constitution, all American law, plus 500 years of progress in rights and liberties. And it came to America in small print!

What happened then? State health departments took the two-pager and rendered the small print into larger print. Here is a screen shot of the order from the state of Georgia.

The small print quickly became the large print that transformed life for everyone. You think there was no plot here? That this was just some mistake that somehow caused the end of America to be buried in the fine print? Wise up. This is a level of malice that is truly boundless.

As for Deborah Birx, she admits later in her book that the idea of 15 Days was always a trick. “No sooner had we convinced the Trump administration to implement our version of a two-week shutdown than I was trying to figure out how to extend it,” she admits.

This was how the chaos in American life began: in small print. Very quickly, this small print was extended to the entire world. And then extended to two years. And now we face a devastating economic, cultural, and political crisis. The population is demoralized and hope is nearly lost.

Who to blame? Anthony Fauci’s fingerprints are all over this sadistic caper, but he denies having anything to do with it.

It’s our fault, he says: We didn’t read the fine print.

END

A member of European parliament sounds off on COVID vaccine coercion and describes it as the worst crime committed on humanity

a must see

(Watson/Summit News)

Member Of European Parliament Labels COVID Vaccine Coercion “Worst Crime Ever Committed On Humanity”

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

In a speech in the European Parliament earlier this month, German MP Christine Anderson described the coercion of people into taking COVID vaccines as the “biggest crime ever committed on humanity.”

“This vaccine campaign will go down as the biggest scandal in medical history,” Anderson declared, adding “moreover, it will be known as the biggest crime ever committed on humanity.”

The MEP was addressing mass flight cancellations and staff shortages in airports and on planes, asserting that while it is claimed the situation stems from companies not hiring back enough staff after the pandemic, the real reason is that pilots and other staff have refused to get vaccinated.

Anderson further warned that “unscrupulous globalist elites” have used the pandemic for their own ends, asking “What in God’s name have they done with this?”

Addressing “each and every elected representative of people in every western democracy,” Anderson asked “What have you done?”

“You didn’t do your job, and do not tell me you didn’t know,” Anderson further asserted, adding “it is your job to protect the people that you were elected by.”

She continued, “There is so much coming to light, all of the adverse side effects, numerous studies now available, on foetal disfigurements… genetic defects of babies born to women who got vaccinated.”

“What in the hell is going on here?” Anderson urged, vowing “We will do all we can to make sure this is brought to light and ensure the rights of the people to be protected.”

Watch:

Watch the full 1hr 30min event here:

Anderson previously made headlines for slamming the “political elite” for imposing vaccines and vaccine passports using “extortion and manipulation”.

Anderson stated that “In the entire history of mankind there has never been a political elite sincerely concerned about the wellbeing of regular people. What makes any of us think that it is different now?”

*  *  *

Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

END

The mask mandate narratives are collapsing

(Miller/unmasked substack)

“Expert” Narratives Are Collapsing

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Ian Miller via ‘Unmasked’ Substack,

The house of cards continues to fall apart…

General mask mandates for most of the country have all but ended.

Outside of a few fanatical true believers like Los Angeles County and entertainment industry events like Comic-Con, almost no one is still mandating masks to go about daily life.

What they are doing however, is forcing masks back onto children in schools.

Perhaps the most indefensible “intervention” during the pandemic, school masking has confusingly become the most prominent reoccurring mandate across the country.

While it has seemed like this inexcusable policy would mostly be limited to far left areas, the most recent announcement comes from a much more surprising city; Louisville, Kentucky.

Starting Monday, July 25th, Louisville schools are now requiring masking at all facility locations and on buses:

Louisville joins San Diego schools, who also announced a mandate of their own recently.

Incredibly, that mandate was defended by a local official who claimed that students who can’t or don’t want to wear masks should just not come to school:

This is despite the overwhelming amount of data and evidence that’s accumulated over the past several years that school masking is completely ineffective. Not to mention the tremendous learning loss from virtual schooling and missed in person education that Whitehurst-Payne ignores.

Just recently, a study on school masking was released comparing two school districts in North Dakota during the fall and winter of 2021-2022.

The Fargo district had a mask mandate in effect starting when school returned in August, while their neighboring schools in the West Fargo district did not.

The results were nearly identical, with Fargo (in black) having a higher peak than their maskless neighbors:

The study authors even attempted to get compliance rates, which based on their conversations, showed that roughly 5% or less of students in the non-mandate schools were masking, compared to 95+% in the mandate district.

Many more studies and comparisons show the same results.

After the school mask mandates were lifted in Virginia, cases fell dramatically, and comparisons of states without and without school mask mandates showed case rates were higher overall in the forced masking locations:

There is simply no justification for continuing to mandate masks in schools.

While it’s unsurprising that cities in California or New York or Illinois will inevitably bring back mandates to assuage their own fears, it’s disturbing that a city in a red state like Kentucky would also return to forced masking.

Parents in these areas might have assumed that their children would be spared from this ineffective, destructive policy. But Louisville shows once again that the commitment to anti-science appeals to authority is possible anywhere.

Once again, Ron DeSantis has shown that he is head and shoulders above most politicians, correctly realizing that banning school masking is the only way to ensure that kids aren’t forced to placate delusional adults.

Mandates Aren’t Working

Even now, well after mask mandates have been completely disproven as a potential “intervention” against the spread of COVID, many parts of the world remain committed to this ineffective policy.

A new report from the Daily Mail highlights how comparisons of Australia to New Zealand and Singapore indicate, yet again, that mandates and mask wearing does not reduce COVID cases.

New Zealand continues to have a strict mask mandate that covers nearly all indoor settings, yet cases there continue to rise and are now among the highest in the world, after adjusting for population:

Similarly, Singapore has experienced a rapid increase in COVID cases and other metrics, despite maintaining a mask mandate with exceptionally high compliance and vaccination rates.

Even more embarrassingly, Singapore was specifically singled out as a supposed success story by Jerome Adams, the former U.S. Surgeon General.

Adams claimed on Twitter earlier in 2022 that the city “controlled surges” with “masking and mitigation:”

Meanwhile, Australia currently has nearly identical case rates, despite lifting many mask mandates and seeing significantly lower compliance percentages:

This is the exact opposite of what was predicted by many supposed “experts” and major media outlets.

No matter how often they’re proven wrong, they continually return to the inaccurate assumption that lifting mask mandates will lead to inevitable disaster.

Conversely, Ashish Jha, the Biden administration’s chief COVID coordinator, claimed in a recent interview in support of LA’s upcoming mask mandate, that wearing masks “really will make a difference:”

“CDC has very clear guidance on this as well through their COVID community levels. And the CDC recommendation is that when you’re in a high zone, that sort of orange zone, you know, people wearing masks indoors is really important, and it really will make a difference.”

Jha never has to face a follow up question asking him why mask wearing indoors is currently not working in other countries, if it’s “really important” and “will make a difference.”

There’s simply uncritical acceptance that what he says is fact, because he is the one saying it. Data, science and evidence are unnecessary when it comes to authorities repeating inaccurate talking points.

Even an Australian infectious disease professor succinctly explained how important imposing a new mask mandates is to slowing the spread: “It doesn’t matter.”

Hospitals Are Finally Admitting That Virtually No One is There For COVID

Los Angeles continues to do its best to take the crown of most anti-science city in America.

Recently the head of LA Public Health announced that the city would return to mask mandates if the region remains in the CDC’s arbitrary “high transmission” zone for two weeks.

Of course, in their announcement, no one pointed out that Los Angeles has made a substantial contribution to the evidence base proving that mask mandates do not work.

Los Angles officials continue to pretend that they can control the spread of the virus through indefinite restrictions.

But what’s worse is that despite the rising case and hospitalization rates used to justify endless mandates, a major LA medical system recently posted a video detailing how little COVID currently impacts their hospitals.

During their remarks, it emerged that “Only 10% of COVID positive admissions are admitted due to COVID.”

Meaning that if there are 100 hospitalized COVID “patients,” only 10 are there to be treated for it and 90 are there for other medical issues and just so happen to test positive.

Even more extraordinary is that they admitted that “virtually none of them go to the ICU,” and “they are not intubated…we have not seen one of those since February:”

As noted by Phil Kerpen, the video does not appear on any of the LA+USC Medical Center feeds, perhaps in an attempt to avoid creating doubt about the necessity of the upcoming mask mandate.

Beyond the implications, that COVID is no longer causing a significant threat to hospitals in the nation’s second largest city, this story provides yet another example of hypocrisy from Gavin Newsom.

Newsom recently released and promoted a political ad claiming that he’s creating a climate of “freedom” in California as opposed to Ron DeSantis in Florida.

Except when asked whether or not he supported Los Angeles potentially imposing a mask mandate two and a half years into the pandemic, Newsom deflected and refused to answer directly.

Somehow in Newsom’s mind, “freedom” doesn’t mean the ability to walk around without a mask, well after their efficacy has been disproven.

It’s not surprising that LA is likely returning to mask mandates despite the lack of severe impacts on hospitals from COVID. When the director of public health, who is not a doctor, makes nearly $500,000 per year to impose destructive, anti-science policies, it’s clear that no amount of data matters to city officials.

Young Kids Aren’t Getting Vaccinated

It’s now been a month and a half since the FDA inexcusably authorized the mRNA vaccines for children aged 6 months to 5 years old.

The decision, based on efficacy estimates that would have failed the standard set by the FDA to authorize the vaccines for adults, was greeted with acclaim by COVID fanatics and dismay by evidence based experts.

In fact, many top employees at the regulatory body and other public health agencies have quit in protest, believing that the authorization was politically motivated.

The rush to push the mRNA shots on young children was bewildering for several reasons.

COVID vaccines were initially authorized on an emergency use basis; except with the risks of severe illness so remarkably low amongst young kids, there is no real emergency for this age group.

Not to mention the lack of long term safety data, especially considering the now established risks of myocarditis. There’s also the fact that the vaccines were based on the original variant, which essentially no longer exists.

Discussions have already begun about updating the vaccines for the Omicron variant and mutations will continue indefinitely. Why rush to authorize the shots when they’re already out of date?

It seems that most parents across the country agree with these flaws.

According to recent data, only 2% of children under 5 across the country have been vaccinated for COVID.

That is an utter disaster for the Biden administration and the public health agencies they control.

They pushed the FDA to rush these vaccines out, and they’ve been overwhelmingly rejected.

While the report provides several excuses such as parents being used to getting their young kids vaccinated during visits to the pediatrician, this is the most widely publicized virus on earth. If parents really believed these shots were necessary or “safe and effective” for children, they would be making appointments at government run vaccination sites.

Instead, despite the Biden administration’s best efforts, most have correctly realized that there is no demonstrable benefit for this age group and not an insignificant amount of risk.

Each time the “experts” and their political bosses roll out another supposed “intervention” with the implication that this will finally be the one to prevent the spread of COVID, they get less uptake.

Booster shots have not been as widely adopted as the original series. The second boosters will be even less popular.

Now parents have shown little to no interest in early childhood vaccinations.

This is the only way to ensure COVID does not become a permanent feature of discussion; showing those in charge that no one is listening to them anymore.

For years, the media, “experts” and politicians have created narratives that mask mandates don’t work in the US because of lack of compliance. They’ve defended the need for school masking and that parents were desperate to get their kids vaccinated. Or they’ve claimed that COVID was the cause for the overwhelming majority of hospitalizations.

All of these continue to be disproven.

Hospitals are finally acknowledging that COVID is not the cause for many of the COVID designated hospitalizations. School masking has been disproven by continued high quality research. International locations with high compliance are not controlling the virus with mandates.

Unfortunately we’ve seen a lot of this before.

It’s been clear for years that they were hopelessly incorrect, and yet they’ve continued to push for indefinite mandates and refused to admit mistakes.

Narrative collapse is but a small hindrance, easily dismissed as criticism from unqualified detractors.

But with the fall and winter rapidly approaching, it’s important to continue to dismantle their arguments and head off upcoming potential policy “interventions” before they start.

end

Hitting mainstream media:

The Covid Vaccine Plot – LewRockwell LewRockwell.com

Inbox

Robert Hryniak11:45 AM (42 minutes ago)
to

Criminal behavior prosecuted by who? And yet how many lives are to be ruined or shortened with a loss to society without a whimper?
And with human loss of life comes deflation while scarcity caused by a shrinking disabled workforce is tasked to innovate and care. The same holds true for a military whose ability to fight is ruined before seeing a field of battle.
Complete madness!

a must view

Passionate vdeo

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello11:23 PM (8 minutes ago)
to me, Mark

https://rumble.com/v1dv5sd-passionate-video-to-watch.-the-war-on-the-unvaccinated-was-lost-be-thankful.html

end//

Dr Paul Alexander..

SENATOR Ron Johnson going after CDC Director Rochelle Walensky for her obfuscation and lies about her/CDC performing COVID vaccine safety data surveillance

Johnson has emerged as one of the most principled and steady and superb senators the US has had in a while; I know him and he is the real deal, sincere, honest, lover of right and lover of laws

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 28

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

end

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

end

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA//

xx

global war on farmers

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello6:15 PM (15 minutes ago)
to me

VACCINE INJURY/

Democrats And MSM Frantically Attempt To Hide Monkeypox Outbreak Among Children Uncovering Pedophilia Epidemic In America – enVolve

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:09 AM (11 hours ago)
to

This is a global problem that is beyond sickening. In Libya just weeks after the overthrow, the Slave Market reopened to traffic like it had been for centuries.

.

Vaccine Impact


W.H.O. – 99% of Monkeypox Cases are Among Men, 95% Men who Have Sex with Men – Calls for Global Censorship of MonkeyPox “Misinformation”

July 27, 2022 4:04 pm

The World Health Organization published recommendations regarding the MonkeyPox “Global Emergency” today, and in doing so, they revealed that this “virus” actually only risks a very small portion of the world’s population: men having sex with other men. WHO Director-general Tedros Adhanom then called for global censorship on any “disinformation” that does not follow the WHO approved propaganda, just as they did with COVID-19. So there you have it. Don’t let history repeat itself, because we know now that those who researched the truth for themselves regarding COVID-19 (labeled as “misinformation”) and determined that it was not a major risk, and therefore stayed clear from the “vaccines” and other novel, new medicines that were quickly authorized for “emergency use,” are the ones who are still alive today and still have their hearts and brains in tact.

Read More…


Novavax Vaccine Contains 1 mcg Armyworm and Baculovirus Proteins Injected into you with Each Dose

July 27, 2022 4:10 pm

You see, the vaccine’s spike protein is grown by genetically engineering baculoviruses to produce spike, and then infecting insect cells with the baculovirus to turn the whole thing into a spike protein factory. At the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices meeting that I live-blogged last week, it was revealed that the Novavax vaccine was being rolled out because it could be marketed as a “more traditional” vaccine, since it was not made from mRNA. Novavax was to be directed to the unvaccinated, although only 10% of the unvaccinated, it was anticipated, would accept it. The fact that no fetal cells were used in its development was claimed to be a marketing plus. However, thanks to a reader, it turns out that a human fetal cell line, (HEK) 293F, was used in the testing of the vaccine, as described in an article in Science. NOTHING about this vaccine is traditional.

Read More…

Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…(KOOPMAN)

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

END

  

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

PANAMA

SRI LANKA

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0129 DOWN  0.0076 /EUROPE BOURSES //MOSTLY MIXED 

USA/ YEN 135.62   DOWN 0.491 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2117 DOWN   0.0045

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.62 POINTS DOWN  0.21%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 47.36 PTS OR 0.23% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.11%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  MOSTLY MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 47.36 PTS OR  0.23% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.62 PTS UP 0.21% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.11% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 99.73 OR 0.36%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1738.85

silver:$19.33

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 106.75  UP 42  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.91% DOWN 14  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.194% DOWN 0     AND 6/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.00%// DOWN 13   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.27  DOWN 14   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.929% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0163  DOWN  .0042   or 42 basis points

USA/Japan: 134.45 DOWN 1.659  OR YEN UP 166  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2126  DOWN  0.0035 OR  35 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0015 OR 8 BASIS pts  to 1.2833

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.7473  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7502

TURKISH LIRA:  17.91  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.194

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  2.694% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.008 UP 1 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 106.43 UP 10   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 2.98 PTS OR  0.04%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 115.73  POINTS OR 0.88%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 81.27 PTS OR 1.30% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 39.50 OR 0.49%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 451.36 PTS OR  2.10%

WTI Oil price 97.26   12: EST

Brent Oil:  106.74  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  59.91  UP 0  AND 5/8       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.9355

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.01850 DOWN .0020     OR  20 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2165 UP .0004  or  4 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.24  DOWN 1.872//YEN UP 187 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2817 DOWN 0.0001 (CDN dollar UP 1  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 96.94

Brent OIL:  107.24

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.671 DOWN 6 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.071  UP 2  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.93

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.82   UP 0 AND   94/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 329,27 PTS OR 1.02 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 116.40 PTS OR 0.92%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.45 DOWN 0.79 PTS (3.40)%

GLD: 163.64 UP 1.97 PTS OR 1.22%

SLV/ 18.43 UP 83 CENTS OR 4.72%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, Gold, & Cryptos Extend Gains As White House Confirms ‘Fed Pivot’

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Deese, Biden, and Yellen all proclaimed: “nope” when questioned whether today’s consecutive negative GDP print means recession…

…harkening back to jobs data ‘we cannot have a recession with such a strong jobs market’. Ironic then that today also saw initial jobless claims weaken to their worst in 8 months…

Source: Bloomberg

Oh, and then there’s this…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9iYWNrZW5kIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfcmVmc3JjX3Nlc3Npb24iOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9yZXN1bHRfbWlncmF0aW9uXzEzOTc5Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InR3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0Zndfc2Vuc2l0aXZlX21lZGlhX2ludGVyc3RpdGlhbF8xMzk2MyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJpbnRlcnN0aXRpYWwiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2V4cGVyaW1lbnRzX2Nvb2tpZV9leHBpcmF0aW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6MTIwOTYwMCwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19kdXBsaWNhdGVfc2NyaWJlc190b19zZXR0aW5ncyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdXNlcl9mb2xsb3dfaW50ZW50XzE0NDA2Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6ImZvbGxvdyIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9mcm9udGVuZCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvZmYiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfX0%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1552724580116172800&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fstocks-bonds-gold-cryptos-extend-gains-white-house-confirms-fed-pivot&sessionId=5c1716324d5945d1e2480a94375a2d3af9074dc5&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=6da0b7085cc99%3A1658260301864&width=550px

And this…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1552699871773298689&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fstocks-bonds-gold-cryptos-extend-gains-white-house-confirms-fed-pivot&sessionId=5c1716324d5945d1e2480a94375a2d3af9074dc5&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=6da0b7085cc99%3A1658260301864&width=550px

…ok, and this…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1552733996429283328&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fstocks-bonds-gold-cryptos-extend-gains-white-house-confirms-fed-pivot&sessionId=5c1716324d5945d1e2480a94375a2d3af9074dc5&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=6da0b7085cc99%3A1658260301864&width=550px

But hey, we’re not biologists, so how would we know if we are in recession or not?

Did anyone notice EU consumer confidence hit a record low today and German inflation unexpectedly re-accelerated today? European macro data is at its weakest (ex COVID lockdowns) since the Great Financial Crisis…

Probably nothing, right? …won;t drag the US down further, right?

Meanwhile, the Democrats continued to browbeat Powell into being dovish today with Powell throwing The Fed under the bus for “fighting inflation” and slowing the economy and Biden economic advisor Jared Bernstein presumptively closing in an interview with MSNBC claiming that “The Fed’s monetary policy pivot is completely appropriate.”

The market has adjusted dovishly, leaving less than 90bps more hikes priced-in for the rest of the year (and a surge in rate-cut expectations after that)…

Source: Bloomberg

Will Powell push back against that? The market is now massively more dovish than The Fed’s last dotplot which Powell specifically called out as worth watching yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

Well he has a lot of time until J-Hole…

Meanwhile, for a brief moment after the cash equity open, it appeared today was going to mirror the last two FOMC statement market moves with a big surge followed by a bigger puke…

Source: Bloomberg

But that dip was bought aggressively just before Nasdaq erased all post-Fed gains as the FOMO Capitulation we warned of struck hard… The US Majors are all up around 2-3% post-FOMC-statement now…

With S&P seemingly finding strong support at 4,000 once again…

After yesterday’s short-squeeze, this morning saw “most shorted” stocks puke back all their gains before a panic bid squeeze re-appared around the European close…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks were not alone in the buying-panic.

Bonds were aggressively bid (after the recessionary print) with the belly of the curve dramatically outperforming today (2Y -10bps, 5Y -13bps, 30Y -6bps). The long-bond is now unch over the last two days with the 5Y yield down 20bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield puked to its lowest since mid-April…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin soared back above $24,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum soared back above $1700 – its highest since early June…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably Ethereum has erased all its recent underperformance relative to bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar chopped around today but ended lower, extending yesterday’s dovish puke (to its lowest since 7/5)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ripped back above $1750…

Oil prices rollercoastered today with WTI ripping up towards $100 before sliding back into the red below $97…

Finally, despite the fact that tomorrow we get The Fed’s traditional favorite inflation indicator (PCE Deflator) and The Fed’s most recent favorite inflation indicator (UMich inflation expectations), hedges were abandoned today with VIX dropping to a 22 handle…

Has this squeeze and ‘over-hedged’ unwind run its course?

And one more thing – who gives a flying fuck if the word ‘recession’ is being used – Americans’ (Adjusted) Misery Index is at its worst level since Jimmy Carter was president…

Source: Bloomberg

And if everything was so ‘not recession’-like – why would consumer sentiment and presidential approval ratings be at record lows?

END

I) / EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING// AFTER FOMC

Treasury Yields Are Collapsing…

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 09:27 AM

A combination of perceived dovishness from The Fed (seemingly re-engaging its ‘bad news is great news’ narrative) and this morning’s dismally worse than expected negative GDP print has prompted a collapse in Treasury yields.

Rate-hike expectations are sliding fast (implying less than 90bps of additional hikes by year-end)…

Sending the 2Y Yield tumbling…

10Y Yields are crashing even harder, now at 2.75% – its lowest since mid-April…

As Nomura’s rates strategist warned earlier:

“However, the near team is going to still be a hawkish Fed. Just a reminder that what goes up must come down in our view, which is why the near term reaction function of hawkishness against inflation will ultimately be the driver for slower economic output in longer dated forwards. The bottom line is the economy is far too fragile to handle this type of tightening in the medium term as the Fed keeps the pedal down.”

However, ignore Nomura, ignore the bond market, and brace for an avalanche of talking heads to ‘splain’ how this is not a recession…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1552645861292888064&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Ftreasury-yields-are-collapsing&sessionId=8f596cc993e2a3fd16b81f1958bd329d85d99ff6&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=6da0b7085cc99%3A1658260301864&width=550px

ii) USA DATA//

Initial jobless claims hit 8 month highs

(zerohedge)

Strong Labor Market? Initial Jobless Claims Hit 8 Month Highs

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 08:36 AM

While we keep being told that the labor market is ‘too strong to be in recession’, anyone who cares to look at the higher frequency data will see that narrative coll;apsing fast as initial jobless claims rose to 256k last week (worse than the 250k expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

While continuing claims continue to flatline, the 4-week average of initial cl;aims is now at its worst level since November 2021.

How long before the BLS’ payrolls data catches up to reality? Will we see a million job losses tomorrow?

Source: Bloomberg

And how long after that will The Fed pivot?

end

USA GDP falls for the second straight quarter by .9% and now the USA is in a recession

(the Hill)

US GDP falls for second-straight quarter

BY SYLVAN LANE – 07/28/22 8:35 AM ET

SHARETWEET

A man shops at a supermarket on Wednesday, July 27, 2022, in New York. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by a hefty three-quarters of a point for a second straight time in its most aggressive drive in three decades to tame high inflation. The Fed is tightening credit even while the economy has begun to slow, thereby heightening the risk that its rate hikes will cause a recession later this year or next. (AP Photo/Andres Kudacki)

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) shrunk between April and June, according to data released Thursday by the Commerce Department, marking the second-straight quarter of economic contraction.

GDP fell at a yearly pace of 0.9 percent in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s first estimate of economic growth over the previous three months. Put simply, the U.S. economy would shrink by nearly 1 percent if the second quarter’s pace of growth lasted for an entire year.

Most economists expected GDP to fall for the second consecutive quarter as the economy faced more pressure from high inflation, rising interest rates, slowing job growth, falling home sales and other headwinds. 

While the economy was almost certain to slow after growing 5.7 percent in 2021, experts have become more fearful of the U.S. slipping into recession after GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter.Biden, Xi to speak amid fresh Taiwan tensionsWhat the Treasury is doing to address the housing shortage

Two straight quarters of negative economic growth have long been used as a rule of thumb to determine when the U.S. is in recession and is the formal threshold for a recession in other countries. But economists in the U.S. consider a broader range of data when determining if the U.S. is in recession.

The U.S. has added 2.7 million jobs since the start of 2022 and consumer spending has continued to increase even amid high inflation. Economists say it may too soon to know if the U.S. is in recession, if at all, given the strength of the job market.

–Updated at 8:39 a.m.

end

Welcome To The Biden Recession: Q2 GDP “Unexpectedly” Shrinks 0.9%, 2nd Consecutive Decline

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 08:40 AM

Considering the dismal Atlanta Fed GDPNow prints in recent weeks, and considering the full-court press by the Biden admin to change the definition of recession, it will hardly be a surprise but in any case moments ago the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed what everyone has long known and that is that the Biden economy is now in a technical recession: the first estimate of Q2 GDP came in at -0.9%, far below the 0.5% consensus forecast (but right on top of the Atlanta Fed -1.2% tracker), and while an improvement from Q1’s -1.6%, this was still the second consecutive quarter of declining GDP which as far as the markets are concerned at least, is the definition of a recession.

end 

IB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

Manchin and Dems reach a deal with Schumer.  I do not think that the moderate Democrats like Sinema and Mark Kelly will go along with this

(zerohedge)

Manchin And Dems Reach Deal On Reconciliation Package, Call It “Inflation Reduction Act”

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 05:08 PM

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on Wednesday announced that he’s reached a deal with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to advance legislation aimed at combating inflation by lowering healthcare costs and paying down the national debt.

We must be honest about the economic reality America now faces if we want to avoid fanning the flames of inflation,” he said in a statement. “At its core, the purpose of reconciliation is to get our economic and fiscal house in order. Contrary to foolish talk otherwise, America cannot spend its way out of debt or out of inflation.”

The bill, the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” is scant on details, though Manchin says the bill will “cut the inflation taxes Americans are paying, lower the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs, and ensure our country invests in the energy security and climate change solutions we need to remain a global superpower through innovation rather than elimination.”

It “would dedicate hundreds of billions of dollars to deficit reduction by adopting a tax policy that protects small businesses and working-class Americans while ensuring that large corporations and the ultra-wealthy pay their fair share in taxes”

As WaPo notes, “The measure also is expected to include provisions that aim to lower prescription drug costs for seniors, impose minimum taxes on corporations and raise money to lower the federal deficit.”

“For too long, the reconciliation debate in Washington has been defined by how it can help advance Democrats political agenda called Build Back Better,” said Manchin. “Build Back Better is dead, and instead we have the opportunity to make our country stronger by bringing Americans together.”

The announcement opens the door for Democratic lawmakers to begin work as soon as next week to advance parts of President Biden’s agenda that have been stalled for seven months.

end

A must read.

(Newt Gingrich)

Gingrich: The Coming Big Election American Tsunami

WEDNESDAY, JUL 27, 2022 – 09:35 PM

Authored by Newt Gingrich via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As I wrote in my last columnan American tidal wave is coming based on big, nationalized congressional campaigns.

The American people will repudiate high inflation, fuel prices, and food costs. They will reject the unchecked border and skyrocketing murder rates (which are up 37 percent in New York City and 34 percent in Chicago). And they are sick of relentless values assaults over race, sexuality, and the nature of America.

If this big election tsunami is going to materialize into what could be the worst Democrat Party repudiation since 1920, Republicans need to understand two things:

  • First, this is an American Majority—not a Republican Majority or a Conservative Majority. Americans of all ethnic and partisan backgrounds are coming together to reject unsustainable pain for their families, communities, and our free society.
  • Second, tsunamis grow out of a big election strategy—not from trying to add up a whole series of small elections.

The American Majority Project logo. (AmericanMajorityProject.com)

Republicans must learn to talk about a New American Majority—not a Republican majority. They must plan, think, and act for the American Majority. This requires listening to and learning from a lot of people who have not been historically part of the Republican Party.

This emerging New American Majority requires base broadening—not base mobilization strategies. This is important, because virtually every Washington consultant will reject this idea. But data shows there is a vastly larger majority emerging than Republicans have been used to engaging for the last 90 years. Reaching all of that majority requires new thinking about policy development, language, scheduling, and coalition building. The polling and focus groups which led to this conclusion are all available at AmericanMajorityProject.com. The data is available to everyone for free.

The big election campaign must be built around big solutions that can actually be implemented. The current crises of the American system, and the Big Government Socialist-Woke Left assault on American values, require big solutions with broad support.

Only deep, committed support of the vast majority of Americans will force the changes on the hostile establishment. Importantly, only this deep commitment will sustain the changes through ferocious attacks from leftwing activists, who will see their radical vision of a America being rejected by the American people.

The big election campaign must offer believable, achievable solutions. The American people are frustrated and hurting. They want a movement dedicated to practical, workable problem-solving that will improve their lives. They are tired of partisan politics. The New American Majority will grow by delivering better results than the Big Government Socialist-Woke Left coalition.

Further, as will become apparent, the better results will be achieved because of the inherent difference in principles between the New American Majority and the Big Governments Socialist left—not just personal capabilities. My new national best seller “Defeating Big Government Socialism: Saving America’s Future” outlines the case for replacing failed ideas and policies with real solutions based on principles that work.

The big election campaign must be built on the principle that politics is the prelude to governing. Great majority coalitions (Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan) exist because they use political momentum to create governing solutions that improve people’s lives and achieve goals people strongly support. As people see leaders keeping their words—and solutions working and improving their lives and communities—new majorities coalesce around practical success.

Getting to an American tsunami requires staying positive and focusing on the cultural and political issues on which the New American Majority can agree. The establishment (including their propaganda media) will do everything it can to draw us into fights that distract us from the areas in which our American majority will dominate. They will seek to focus on gossip, internal tension, or other distractions to minimize our ability to communicate with the New American Majority about issues that bring us together and motivate us to win.

Pay close attention to this: Irrelevant, trivial noise and niche issues are the enemies of growing a majority. Clarity, consistency, and firmness of purpose are the keys to attracting, educating, and holding together a New American Majority.

Because this New American Majority grows out of the American people’s desire for a better future—and a more stable value system—it is essential for those who would lead the majority to be constantly listening to the American people. Leaders must continuously be learning how Americans are thinking through and responding to the extraordinary pressures of our time.

Lincoln’s government “of the people, by the people, and for the people” naturally requires constantly listening to and trying to understand “the people.” This is the heart of a governing majority.

We are not reinventing anything. New American Majorities have come together before to save society. Every activist and leader who wants to help develop this emerging majority should read about Ronald ReaganMargaret Thatcher, and my latest book if we are going to achieve a better American future.

A big election American tsunami is possible but not inevitable. Following these principles make it much more likely.

END

Clueless idiots

(zerohedge)

Biden, Warren Throw Powell Under The Bus: “No Surprise Economy Slowing As Fed Acts”

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 10:26 AM

Over the weekend we wrote that “Democrats Prepare To Unleash Hell On Fed Chair Powell For The Coming Recession” for the simple reason that, well, dems will never take responsibility for their catastrophic policies which first sparked near hyperinflation and then, when Powell was browbeaten into pretending he is Volcker, sparked a dramatic slowdown in the economy.

Well, now that the US is officially in a recession

… the Democrats’ brilliant plan has sprung into action, with Biden taking the lead and saying in a statement after the dismal GDP print, that “coming off of last year’s historic economic growth – and regaining all the private sector jobs lost during the pandemic crisis – it’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation.”

Translation: just like rising gas prices are Putin’s fault while falling gas prices are entirely thanks to Joe, so the post-covid bounce was entirely thanks to Biden… while the subsequent recession is – well – all Powell’s fault.

It wasn’t just Biden though: Powell’s old nemesis, clueless econo-hack Elizabeth Warren, was also out for blood, and in a tweet shortly after the market open, she said that “the Fed’s aggressive interest-rate hikes risk pushing the U.S. economy into recession — and the evidence is in the data.  While failing to address many drivers of inflation, the Fed is pumping the brakes on the labor market and slowing the economy.”

She concluded that “Congress needs to step up” although it wasn’t clear if that means Congress should fire Powell or launch another stimmy to undo the recession, even as it pushes inflation into turbo overdrive.

As for Powell – and we thought we’d never say this – our condolences to the Fed chair who thought he was doing just what Biden wanted… at least until he got the inevitable recession. And now Biden will find out what polls (much) worse: galloping inflation or millions of layoffs as a result of an acute recession.

END

Extremely important:   Walmart margin signal is a huge warning for markets

(Bloomberg)

Walmart Margin Signal Is Warning For Markets

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 02:04 PM

By Emily Graffeo, Bloomberg reporter and analyst

With Walmart Inc. driving home that consumers are retrenching in the face of soaring inflation and rising borrowing costs, investors are grappling with the risk that Wall Street’s expectations for US corporate profits are still too high.

Stock markets have shed trillions this year and a recession may be looming. Yet one key driver of equity valuations still shows analysts foresee earnings resilience, at least by historical norms. Projections for S&P 500 Index profit margins for the third quarter stand at 13.5%, versus the pre-pandemic quarterly average of 10.5%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data going back to 2010.

But Walmart’s move to lower its profit outlook this week as it cuts prices to pare inventories is a warning sign for profit expectations broadly, says Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. If the world’s largest retailer can’t maintain margins in the face of high inflation and cooling economic growth, it’s an ominous sign for others in that sector, he says. 

Walmart is “facing a stressed consumer, with worries about inflation, who is not buying as many discretionary items that have higher margins, and they overstocked on those things that now aren’t selling, and have to discount them, hence the margin erosion,” Colas said in an interview.

Earnings releases ahead from other retailers, including Amazon.com Inc. on Thursday after the close, will help investors and analysts decide whether Walmart’s margin warning is company-specific or a harbinger of more widespread pain that could spell deeper losses in stocks.

On Wednesday at least, the mood was buoyant. Stocks surged after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will slow the pace of rate hikes at some point. He spoke after officials lifted their benchmark rate by 75 basis points for the second straight month.

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Poonam Goyal, for one, says Walmart’s profit cut likely won’t bleed over to Amazon.com. The latter’s customer base is more affluent, and better-positioned to navigate inflationary challenges that have forced consumers to shift spending to low-margin food items, from higher-margin discretionary purchases, the analyst said in a report.

Since Walmart lowered its profit outlook on Monday, a series of earnings reports have eased the gloom around the strength of the consumer, including from Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., hotel chain Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. and Visa Inc.

It’s also worth noting that analysts’ expectations for the third quarter have already been declining in recent months as angst grows about a possible recession, according to BI strategist Michael Casper.

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

Colas says elevated profit-margin expectations have been a key driver of equity valuations in recent years, helping keep the S&P 500 above pre-pandemic levels. Now those assumptions are being questioned.

“We are coming off a period of exceptional S&P 500 profitability,” he wrote in a note this week. “Analysts and investors may be anchoring their margin expectations on unsustainably high 2021 profit margins.”

end

Today it is Intel that is reporting ugly

(zerohedge)

“We Must Do Better” – Intel Plunges after Slashing Revenue Outlook (As CHIPS Act Passes

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 04:17 PM

Oh the irony…

On the very day where the sector gets a massive handout from the government as the CHIPS funding bill heads to Biden’s desk to be signed, Intel reports top- and bottom-line forecasts for Q2 and slashes its outlook for Q3 and full fiscal year.

For Q2 it was ugly:

  • Adjusted revenue $15.32 billion, estimate $17.96 billion
  • Adjusted EPS 29c, estimate 69c

The outlook for Q3 was worse:

  • Sees adjusted revenue $15 billion to $16 billion, estimate $18.7 billion
  • Sees adjusted EPS 35c, estimate 82c
  • Sees adjusted gross margin 46.5%, estimate 51.4%

And the full year forecast was worsererer…

  • Sees adjusted revenue $65 billion to $68 billion, saw $76 billion, estimate $74.76 billion
  • Sees adjusted EPS $2.30, saw $3.60, estimate $3.39
  • Sees adjusted gross margin 49%, saw 52%, estimate 51.8%

Intel’s CFO says:

“We are taking necessary actions to manage through the current environment, including accelerating the deployment of our smart capital strategy, while reiterating our prior full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance and returning gross margins to our target range by the fourth quarter”

INTC is down 10% after hours…

Intel CEO Gelsinger summed it all up well: “we must and will do better.”

With all that freshly printed taxpayer money, you better Pat!

SWAMP STORIES

“I’ve Delivered”: New Disclosures Demolish President Biden’s Denials On Hunter Dealings

THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 – 10:44 AM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

New disclosures are demolishing the continued denials of President Biden that he had no knowledge and nothing to do with his son’s business interests. The emails (reviewed by Fox and The Daily Mail) include exchanges with at least 14 of Hunter Biden’s business associates while Joe Biden was vice president. They cast further doubt on the president’s repeated claims that he had no knowledge of his son’s foreign business dealings.  In one almost plaintive email, Hunter actually complains to an associate that he had delivered on everything that was demanded of him in getting access to his father and the White House.

President Biden and the White House continue to repeat his denial from the campaign trial in 2019:

“I have never spoken to my son about his overseas business dealings.”

These denials have continued even after an audiotape surfaced showing President Biden leaving a message for Hunter specifically discussing coverage of those dealings.

Some of us have written for two years that Biden’s denial of knowledge is patently false.

Indeed, it is baffling how Attorney General Garland can ignore the myriad of references to Joe Biden in refusing to appoint a special counsel.

There are emails of Ukrainian and other foreign clients thanking Hunter Biden for arranging meetings with his father.

There are photos from dinners and meetings that tie President Biden to these figures, including a 2015 dinner with a group of Hunter Biden’s Russian and Kazakh clients.

People apparently were told to avoid directly referring to President BidenIn one email, Tony Bobulinski, then a business partner of Hunter’s, was instructed by Biden associate James Gilliar not to speak of the former veep’s connection to any transactions:

“Don’t mention Joe being involved, it’s only when u [sic] are face to face, I know u [sic] know that but they are paranoid.”

Instead, the emails apparently refer to President Biden with code names such as “Celtic” or “the big guy.” In one, “the big guy” is discussed as possibly receiving a 10 percent cut on a deal with a Chinese energy firm; other emails reportedly refer to Hunter Biden paying portions of his father’s expenses and taxes.

The new disclosures only add details to the the extent of his knowledge and involvement.

It appears that Biden met with at least 14 of Hunter’s business associates from the U.S., Mexico, Ukraine, China and Kazakhstan over the course of his vice presidency. That includes Hunter’s Mexican business associates, Miguel Aleman Velasco and Miguel Aleman Magnani who visited the West Wing on Feb. 26, 2014, and Joe was later photographed with Hunter giving Velasco and Magnani a tour of the White House Brady Press Briefing room.

Hunter is clearly eager to get photos as a deliverable for the visits. In one email in April 2014 to David Lienemann, Biden’s official photographer, Hunter asks “Do you have pictures from the lunch I had in dad’s office (I think on 2/26) with Miguel Alleman [sic] Sr. And Jr. And Jeff Cooper? If so let me know and I can send someone to pick them up. Thanks. How was Kiev?”

Other emails show Hunter using trips with his Dad to arrange meetings with business associates like Magnani. Indeed, in one exchange with Magnani, Hunter complains that he is not getting responses on his business dealings, objecting

“I have brought every single person you have ever asked me to bring to the F’ing White House and the Vice President’s house and the inauguration and then you go completely silent,. I don’t know what it is that I did but I’d like to know why I’ve delivered on every single thing you’ve ever asked – and you make me feel like I’ve done something to offend you.”

The cringeworthy email only adds to the embarrassment not of Hunter Biden but Merrick Garland who continues to refuse the obvious need for a special counsel.  Indeed, the public could raise the objection raised by Hunter: what does it take?

King report

The King Report July 28, 2021 Issue 6810Independent View of the News
June Durable Goods Orders unexpectedly jumped on air and defense (Ukraine related) ordersDurable Goods +1.9% m/m, exp. -0.4%, prior +0.8%Durable Goods Ex-transports +0.3%, exp. 0.2%, prior 0.5%Cap Goods Orders Non-defense, Ex-air 0.5%, exp. 0.2%, prior 0.5%Shipments 0.7%, 0.3% exp., 0.4% prior (from 0.7%) 
June Wholesale Inventories 1.9% m/m, 1.5% exp.; Retail Inventories 2.0% m/m, 1.0% exp.
 
@spomboy: GDP Alert:  Both Wholesale & Retail inventories print higher than expected.  This suggests LESS of a drag on 2q GDP (atl fed look for INVM to subtract 2.5pp).  BUT it means inventories will continue to weigh on growth in out-quarters.  WMT warned us!
 
Atlanta Fed GDPNow rose to -1.2% from -1.6%.  This is the last GDPNow forecast for the second quarter… https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
 
WTI Oil Jumps 2.5% to Session-High $97.40 on 10-Million-Barrel Weekly Drop in Total U.S. Crude Supplies – BBG
 
@bespokeinvest: The S&P is down 17% YTD, but if you only owned the market on days when the FOMC hiked rates, you’d be looking at a YTD gain of 6.8%.  If you avoided the market on those 3 days and were long the rest of the year, you’d be down 23%.  Nobody ever said the market had to make sense!
 
We have often noted that for the past few decades, traders are conditioned to buy stocks for Fed Day.  Traders will keep playing this pattern, which is a self-fulling prophesy, until it is no longer valid.  The pattern developed because the Fed mostly issued dovish communiques or announced easier monetary policy for decades.  The pattern has become inculcated, even though the rationale for the rally is invalid.
 
The NY Fed: The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift – In the past few decades stocks in the U.S. and several other major economies have experienced large excess returns in anticipation of U.S. monetary policy decisions made at scheduled policy meetings. We refer to this phenomenon as the pre-FOMC announcement drift… Since 1994, the S&P500 index has on average increased 49 basis points in the 24 hours before scheduled FOMC announcements… about 80% of annual realized excess stock returns since 1994 are accounted for by the pre-FOMC announcement drift…
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr512.html
 
How Stocks and Currencies Actually Move Around the FOMC Meeting
The average increase over seven trading days was 0.51 percent, with the bulk of the advance taking place in the last two days before the announcement. However, in the days after the FOMC meeting, prices begin to move sideways… https://www.seasonax.com/research/fomc-meeting-move-of-stocks-and-currencies
 
ESUs surged on Wednesday for Fed Day and the start of the July performance gaming scheme.  ESUs were sharply higher but traded flat during Asian trading.  Another rally leg appeared when Europe opened.  But ESUs and stocks went flat again from 4 ET until they dipped about 1.5 hours later.
 
ESUs and stocks then went flat for the 3rd time.  The rally for the NYSE open developed.  ESUs and stocks then surged on rabid buying for Fed Day.  The rally peaked at 12:26 ET.  After a modest retreat, the rally for the FOMC Minutes release began at 13:07 ET.  It was modest.
 
Senate PASSES $280 billion CHIP bill to build semiconductors and combat China https://trib.al/StqfmGY
 
@CraigCaplan: 17 Republican Senators McConnell, Blunt, Burr, Capito, Cassidy, Collins, Cornyn, Daines, Graham, Hagerty, Moran, Portman, Romney, Sasse, Tillis, Wicker and Young joined all Democrats in voting Yes for the CHIPS Act. (Yes, Virginia; all GOP voters are RINOs.)
 
As expected, the Fed hiked its funds rate 75bps for a 2.25% to 2.50% target range; and it hiked the Interest on Reserve Balances 75bps to 2.40%.  The vote was unanimous.
 
FOMC Communique Highlights“Spending and production have softened… job gains have been robust in recent months…”Fed repeats that it is ‘highly attentive’ to inflation risksInflation remains elevated, reflecting imbalancesOngoing rate increases likely will be appropriateWill continue to reduce its balance sheet (LOL – only -0.7% since 4/13 peak!) 
ESUs spiked on the release of the FOMC Minutes to a daily high of 3989.25 but quickly sank to 3968.50 in 4 minutes.  ESUs and stocks rebounded modestly ahead of Powell’s Press Conference.
 
Powell Press Conference Highlights
“Strongly committed to bringing inflation down expeditiously…”
The labor market is extremely tight, and inflation is much too high
Will significantly reduce the size of our balance sheet; will say more after today
Labor demand is strong; labor supply is subdued
Inflation remains well above our 2% goal
(ESUs and stocks retreated on the above hawkish comments)
Aggregate demand remains strong
Though some commodity prices have turned down, there is still upward pressures on inflation
The pace of expected rate increase will depend on incoming data
Another unusually large increase rate might be appropriate at September meeting
 
Powell Q&A Highlights
Expect period of below trend economic growth
We’re right in the range of what we think is neutral (very dovish remark, ESUs jumped higher)
Core inflation is a better indicator of inflation than headline (ESUs rallied more, +55.00 in 19 min.)
Fed will offer less ‘clear guidance’ on rate moves
“I do not think the US is currently in a recession.”
Tend to take initial GDP reports ‘with a grain of salt’
The Household Survey has shown no growth the past 3 months, might indicate job growth is slowing
It could take 2 to 2.5 years to reduce the Fed balance sheet to a new equilibrium
 
Powell boosted stocks, commodities, and initially bonds with his much more dovish than expected Q&A session.  ESUs rallied 64.00 during his Q&A session. The NY Fang+ Index rallied as much as 5.65%.  After Powell’s Q&A ended, ESUs rallied another 10.25.
 
Bonds lost their 30/32 rally during the latter part of Powell’s Q&A on reinflation angst.
 
Biden tested negative for Covid yesterday and ended his isolation.  The Big Guy was scheduled to speak at 11:30 ET.  He was about 25 minutes later for his appearance and spoke about Covid topics for only about 8 minutes.   Biden wore sunglasses for the speech, an anomaly even for an outdoor event.  See below for possible reasons for this strange occurrence. https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1552318845804810241
 
Joe bragged that he handled Covid better than Trump because of vaccines.  Trump had the far more lethal strain than the current flu-like Covid strain Joe had.  Why does Joe keep referencing Trump?  Yep, to divert attention from his abysmal presidency and ratings.
 
@TPostMillennial: Biden: “Most COVID deaths are among those who are not up to date on their shots…”
https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1552324062218788867
     @bonchieredstate: This isn’t even true. Dr. Birx said just last week that 50% of those who died of Omicron were double-vaxxed.
 
Nancy Pelosi’s Husband Unloads Massive Stake in Chips Stock for Huge Loss after Buying Shares Before Subsidy Vote – Paul sold 25,000 shares of Nvidia, one of the world’s largest semiconductor companies, at an average price of roughly $165 each on Tuesday worth up to $5 million, a financial disclosure shows. Paul took a total loss of roughly $341,000, according to the disclosure…
https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/27/nancy-pelosi-husband-paul-nvidia-stock-net-loss/
 
Positive aspects of previous session
The FOMC Drift rally occurred
Fangs soared on Drift buying and the start of the July performance gaming scheme
Powell boosted all asset classed due to his dovish Q&A session
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Powell went squishy in his Q&A, commodities soared while the dollar tumbled
The possibility of inflation staying elevated or increasing later has increased due to Powell
Bonds reversed hard to the downside and closed negative for the session
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Has Powell really changed course?  Watch to see if Fed officials walk back his comments.
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4004.77
Previous session High/Low4039.56; 3951.43
 
FDA Officials Warn of Brain Swelling, Vision Loss in Minors Using Puberty Blockers http://dlvr.it/SVYnPs
 
@bespokeinvest: 12: Number of days, including today, that the Nasdaq rallied more than 3% in a day this year. Down 23.23%: The Nasdaq’s YTD Change.
 
Meta (closed +10.43) reported ugly results after the close: EPS 2.46 vs 2.59 exp.; revenue 28.82B vs 28.94B exp.  Meta reduced Q3 revenue guidance to $26B-$28.5B; 30.32B was expected.  Meta tumbled 7% on its first ever y/y revenue decline and its lower Q3 guidance.
 
Best Buy shares fall as it cuts its forecast for second quarter, cites weaker demand https://cnb.cx/3bdwa9Y
 
Powell’s assertion that Fed Funds are near neutral is based on the notion that Fed Funds should equal the 2-year note yield.  Some pundits hailed Jerome for acknowledging this belief.  However, we think they are misguided.  This relationship is meaningless when inflation is above historic norms.  When Volcker moved to kill inflation, he put Fed Fund to 20% when CPI was a tad below 15%.  This is the last time inflation has been virulent.  Also, the Fed’s bond market corner (QE & NZIRP), created artificially low rates across the curve.  This has distorted historical relationships and created artificial ones.
 
The 2-year yield is near 3%; Fed Funds are 2.5%.  CPI was 9.1% for June, putting funds and the 2-year at historically negative real rates.  A 6%+ negative real interest rate is unlikely to arrest inflation. 
 
Manchin and Schumer cut abrupt deal to hike taxes and spend on environment https://trib.al/6LhLhUG
The plan would spend $369 billion on energy and climate initiatives and $64 billion to extend expiring federal subsidies for people buying health insurance… the measure would raise $739 billion over 10 years in revenue, the biggest chunk coming from a 15% corporate minimum tax (2 weeks ago Manchin said he was against raising taxes with a recession looming.)
https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/manchin-says-he-and-schumer-have-deal-on-taxes-environment/
 
Today – Powell’s dovish Q&A has profoundly altered market psychology.  ‘Risk’ is back in vogue, which will make arresting inflation tougher in coming months.  If commodities and stocks surge anew in coming weeks, inflation could rebound.
 
Powell, most importantly, clearly announced that he does NOT have the courage to do what is necessary to arrest inflation.   For the second time in his reign, Powell has gone squishy too early (Q4 2018).  Though some traders and investors expected Powell to go squishy earlier than necessary, he has caved far earlier than most everyone expected
 
Mr. Bond, who is smarter than Mr. Stock, recognized how badly Powell screwed up.  USU hit 143 2/32 at 14:42 ET, 12 minutes into Powell’s Press Conference.  At 15:36 ET, USUs were 141 23/32.
 
WTI Oil jumped 3.65%; gasoline rallied 2.85%.  The odds of a harder economic landing have increased due to Powell’s retreat.  If the dollar the top is in, global inflationary forces will impact the US more severely because King Dollar mitigated earlier global inflationary pressure for Americans.
 
Q2 GDP will be largely irrelevant due to Powell’s cave.  Apple and Amazon’s earnings, due after the close, will also be largely irrelevant unless a significant negative surprise appears.  Traders and investors now have a clear runway to market up stuff to game July performance.  One must wonder if Powell caved due to Midterm Election politics.   Did Powell know about the Schumer-Manchin deal to hike taxes? 
 
Stocks surged in March on Fed Day but reversed on the ensuing Thursday.  Stocks are extremely overbought on a short-term basis.  However, there could be manic short covering and FOMO buying early today.  If stocks rally sharply in the morning, an afternoon reversal is likely.  SPUs are -8.50 at 20:15 ET.
 
Expected earnings: MRK 1.69, VLO 9.40, IP 1.08, PFE 1.79, BAX .88, NOC 6.10, TXT .88, HON 2.03, LUV 1.17, MA 2.37, CMCSA .92, HSY 1.69, MO 1.25, MLM 3.76, AAPL 1.26, AMZN .14, INTC .69
 
Expected economic data: Q2 GDP 0.4%, Consumption 1.2%, GDP Price Index 7.9%, Core PCE 4.4%; Initial Jobless Claims 250k, Continuing Claims 1.388m; July KC Mfg Activity Index 3
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3920; 100-day MA: 4125; 150-day MA: 4262; 200-day MA: 4349
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,587; 100-day MA: 32,736; 150-day MA: 33,542; 200-day MA: 34,043
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4813.43 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4113.15 triggers a buy signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3862.29 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3940.06 triggers a sell signal
 
Hunter Biden’s biz partner called Joe Biden ‘the Big Guy’ in panicked message after Post’s laptop story   https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/hunter-bidens-biz-partner-called-joe-biden-the-big-guy-in-panic-over-laptop/
 
Whistleblower allegations raise prospect FBI misled Senate’s Hunter Biden probe, Ron Johnson says – “FBI can no longer be trusted to investigate Hunter Biden,” Wisconsin senator says.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/whistleblower-allegations-raise-prospect-fbi-misled
 
Ex-DNI @RichardGrenell: Joe Biden has turned the Department of Justice into a Democrat hit squad on Republicans. Prosecuting your political enemies is a hallmark of Third World fascists.
 
Whistleblowers Say FBI ‘Pressured & Incentivized’ Agents to Classify Cases as Domestic Terrorism… despite lacking the criteria to meet such a classification
https://breaking911.com/breaking-whistleblowers-say-fbi-pressured-incentivized-agents-to-classify-cases-as-domestic-terrorism/
 
Biden’s Behavior Abruptly Changes in Spliced Video Speech Released by The White House; From Sleepy-Eyed to Bug-Eyed and Not Blinking – There are at least ten spliced edits in the video…
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/07/covid-meds-bidens-behavior-abruptly-changes-spliced-video-speech-released-white-house-sleepy-eyed-bug-eyed-not-blinking/
 
@KyleMartinsen_: Here’s 20 seconds of a pre-recorded speech Joe Biden gave yesterday. Take a look at how much the White House edited it.  (I did not edit this in any way)
https://twitter.com/KyleMartinsen_/status/1552114134224887813
 
@FiveTimesAugust: Here’s the two videos back and forth.  Pay attention to his physical appearance and his voice. Again, both supposedly from today, both only a few hours apart. What the hell is happening here? https://t.co/VjB2pjJZPn  (Side by side pics) https://twitter.com/FiveTimesAugust/status/1552066481931915267
 
@bonchieredstate: Here’s the original clip of Biden ranting. He does actually go 42 seconds without blinking. What the heck is he on?  https://twitter.com/bonchieredstate/status/1552102935580053506?s=02
 
@gregkellyusa: The normal Human Being BLINKS their eyes 15 to 20 times a minute. On the other hand, there’s @joebiden   https://twitter.com/gregkellyusa/status/1552076842684895232
 
Chicago Mayor Lightfoot refusing to pay speeding, red light tickets…  (Laws are for peons)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/chicago-mayor-lightfoot-refusing-to-pay-speeding-red-light-tickets-as-they-pile-up-report/ar-AA1000Lc
 
‘It was a subjective statement’, says Meghan Markle of Oprah interview claim that she ‘grew up an only child’ – after being accused by half-sister Samantha of lying about ‘rags to riches’ sob story
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11053509/Meghan-Markle-denies-lying-growing-child-bombshell-Oprah-interview.html
 
Except for Bill and Hillary Clinton, has a couple deserved each other more than Markle and Prince Harry?
 
U.S. basketball star Griner says her rights were not read to her when detained in Russia (Miranda Warnings in Russia?!?!  She really doesn’t get it.)  http://reut.rs/3b9biRh

 

Greg Hunter: Interviewing 

See you TOMORROW

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