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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,789.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/11/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/15/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 90
072 H GOLDMAN 239
104 C MIZUHO 71
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 536
132 C SG AMERICAS 205
167 C MAREX 58
190 H BMO CAPITAL 58
323 H HSBC 7
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1402 516
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 17
661 C JP MORGAN 1947 1214
661 H JP MORGAN 15
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 5
690 C ABN AMRO 2
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 12
800 C MAREX SPEC 30
880 C CITIGROUP 32
880 H CITIGROUP 215
905 C ADM 25

TOTAL: 3,350 3,350
MONTH TO DATE: 32,025

JPMorgan stopped: 1214/3350

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:

3350 NOTICES FOR 335000 OZ //10.4199 TONNES

total notices so far: 32,025 contracts for 3,202,500 oz (99.611 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

2 NOTICES FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 827 : for 4,135,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $7.65

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.34 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 485.067 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 5022 CONTRACTS TO 148,647 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.46 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.46) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS//. HOWEVER WE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SPECULATOR LIQUIDATIONS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 5557 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//HUGE BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A FAIR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 35,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/(//MINOR SPEC LIQUIDATION)

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -485

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 10 days, total 5986 contracts: 29.930 million oz OR 2.993 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (599 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 29.930 MILLION OZ

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 29.930 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5022 DESPITE OUR $0.46 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A TINY SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 50 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER AND SHORT ADDITIONS ////// SOME SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATION// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 35,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 5557 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 27.785 MILLION OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

WE HAD 2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1985 CONTRACTS TO 457,982 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: — 361 CONTRACTS.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $5.95//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//STRONG ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 98.367 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 104,700 OZ//NEW STANDING 103.042 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $5.95 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5807 OI CONTRACTS 18.062 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3822 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 457,982

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5807 CONTRACTS WITH 1985 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3822 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6118 CONTRACTS OR 19.185 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3822) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1985): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 5807 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS// ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 104,700 oz. 3) ZERO/ LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

23,343 CONTRACTS OR 2,334,300 OZ OR 72.606 TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2334 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 72.606 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 72.606/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.05% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 72.606 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 5022 CONTRACT OI TO 148,647 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 50 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 50 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 50 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 5022 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 50 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 5072 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 25.36 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.46

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.78 PTS OR 0.15% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 93.19 OR 0.46% /The Nikkei closed UP 727.65 OR % 2.62. //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.50% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7424//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 6.7410// /Oil UP TO 92.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 98.24// / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1985 CONTRACTS TO 457,982 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL OF $5.95 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (3822 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3822 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :3822 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3822 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 5807 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3822 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 1985 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 5.95. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST (103.042),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:103.042 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $5.95) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS // COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO COVER TO THEIR POSITIONS////// WE HAVE REGISTERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 19.185 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (103.042 TONNES)…

WE HAD –361 CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5807 CONTRACTS OR 580700 OZ OR 18.062 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 113,678/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday 131,831/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 12

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	20,440.421 oz Brinks JPMorgan
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	216,122.984 oz HSBC Manfra: 2000 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today	3350 notice(s) 335,000 OZ 10.4199 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1103 contracts 110,300 oz 3.4307 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	32,025 notices 3.202,500 OZ 99.611 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

total dealer deposit 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 2

i) Into HSBC 151,820.984 oz

ii) Into Malca 64,302.000 (2000 kilobars)

total deposits: 216,122.984 oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) out of Brinks: 257.208 8 kilobars

ii) Out of JPM ; 20,183.213oz

total: 20,440.421 oz

total in tonnes: 0.63 tonnes

Adjustments: dealer to customer //1

Manfra: 391.323 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 4453 contracts having GAINED 1004 contracts .

We had 43 notices served upon yesterday so we gained a whopping 1047 contracts or an additional 104,700 oz will stand for delivery in this very active month of August.

.As promised, from this point on, we will now add to the amount of gold standing at the comex until the end of the month.

Sept. GAINED 911 contracts to 3178 contracts.

October LOST 140 contracts DOWN to 38,930

We had 3350 notice(s) filed today for 335,000 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 1947 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 3350 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1214 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (32,025) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (AUGUST 4453 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 3350 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,312,800 OZ OR 103.042 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of AUGUST.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (32,025) x 100 oz+ (4453) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3350} x 100 oz} which equals 3,312,800 oz standing OR 103.042 TONNES in this active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 103.042 TONNES (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST ( ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 2,318,414,091 oz 72.11 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 29,284,766.592 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 14,479,888.106 OZ (450,39 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,804,878.486 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 12,161,865.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 378.28 tonnes//rapidly declining

END

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 12

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	29,422.400 oz Int. Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	333.408 oz Delaware Int Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	2 CONTRACT(S) 10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	110 contracts (550,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	827 contracts 4,135,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware 976.004 oz

ii) Into Int. Delaware 55.254

total deposit: 333.408 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 174.582 million oz/333.408 million =52.36% of comex

Comex withdrawals: 2

i) out of int Delaware: 29,472.4007 oz

total: 29,472.400 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 55.259 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 333.436 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 112 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 11 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 18 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY

SO WE GAINED 7 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 35,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY. THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE//(OR REMAIN CONSTANT) ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 3842 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 68,669

OCTOBER LOST 25 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 90

CONTRACTS.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2 for 10,000 oz

Comex volumes:47.552// est. volume today// good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 76,187 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 827 x 5,000 oz = 4,135,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(112) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 827 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (112) – number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 4,685,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

AUGUST 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 997.42 TONNES

AUGUST 10//WITH GOLD UP $2.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD UP $6.70: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 996.16 TONNES.

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.16 TONNES

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.25: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .33 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.32 TONNES

AUGUST 4 WITH GOLD UP $29.00 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1000.65 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD UP $3.70; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.97 TONNES//

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 997.42 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920, 000 OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.067 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: FIRST: A DEPOSIT OF 461,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.014 MILLION OZ..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.159 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 922,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.712 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 527,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.634 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.504 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 485.067 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Although convicted on fraud and related charges, it was more difficult to prove the more difficult racketeering charge.

(Reuters)

Morgan gold spoofers convicted of fraud were acquitted of racketeering

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-08-11 13:09Section: Daily Dispatches

Ex-JPMorgan Traders Cleared of Racketeering, Found Guilty of Fraud

By Jody Godoy and Michelle Price
Reuters
Thursday, August 11, 2022

WASHINGTON — Three former JPMorgan Chase & Co. employees were acquitted Wednesday of racketeering and conspiracy charges in a landmark futures manipulation trial, although two were found guilty on other charges including fraud, a Department of Justice spokesperson said.

The case against the bank’s former global precious metals desk head Michael Nowak, precious metals trader Gregg Smith, and salesperson Jeffrey Ruffo is seen as the Justice Department’s most aggressive to date targeting a manipulative futures trading tactic known as spoofing.

Nowak was convicted on 13 other charges including fraud, spoofing and attempted market manipulation, and Smith was convicted on 11 charges. Ruffo, who was only charged with racketeering and conspiracy, was acquitted of both. All three men had pleaded not guilty.

While financial reform advocates hailed the convictions as a clear signal that Wall Street executives are not above the law, attorneys said it underscored the difficulty of proving the more ambitious charges of racketeering and conspiracy. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/two-former-jpmorgan-metals-traders-found-guilty-landmark-spoofing-case-2022-08-10/

end

New Orleans conference will be spectacular in October, so join GATA there

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-08-11 14:10Section: Daily Dispatches

By Brien Lundin
Editor, Gold Newsletter
CEO, New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday, July 20, 2022

As a serious investor, you’re well aware of the unique challenges presented by today’s markets.

— Central banks — led by the Federal Reserve — intent to fight off rising inflation with rate hikes.

— The markets responding with massive selloffs, sending a clear message to the Fed to lay off.

Inflation remaining at 1970s levels, and the U.S. economy hurtling toward recession. …

— … while the Fed itself is running head-long into today’s towering debt loads, the insurmountable obstacle blocking their rate-hike campaign.

With all this and more going on, many investors are caught like deer in the headlights, unsure of which way to turn.

But a few others are quietly confident, taking comfort in one unassailable fact:

The New Orleans Conference will be back in full force Wednesday through Saturday, October 12-15.

And this is why I’m writing you now: We’ve opened registration for this year’s New Orleans Investment Conference, and it may be the most eagerly awaited event in our 48-year history.

There are a number of reasons for the excitement.

First, we’ll finally be “back” after a three-year absence due to the Covid pandemic.

Yes, we hosted our first in-person event last year, but many of our exhibiting companies and friends from around the world weren’t able to travel and join us. Still, it was an extraordinary gathering, seeping with intellectual energy from our attendees and value from our elite speakers.

Now that everyone will be able to join us, we’re going to blow the doors off with this year’s New Orleans Conference.

Our phones have been ringing and our email inboxes bursting with inquiries from across the globe.

This event is not to be missed!

Second, the fundamentals and technicals are lined up perfectly for the precious metals, commodity, and mining stock opportunities that the New Orleans Conference is renowned for offering.

— Inflation has surged to 1970s levels, and real rates are more negative than at any time since the 1940s.

— The Fed is dead-set on the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades, with enormous repercussions now being felt in every investment sector.

— But with an enormous federal debt today — three times its level in 2008 — the Fed is powerless to fight inflation.

— The next big development comes when the Fed is forced to retreat from its rate hikes.

— When the Fed wavers, specific investment sectors are going to explode higher.

What does it all mean?

It means you’re now facing tremendous risks and opportunities — and you have to be prepared for what’s coming.

Third, we have lined up an extraordinary roster of speakers, drawing heavily on the wildly popular experts from last year, with many more still to come.

Consider who has told us they’re coming to talk to you so far:

James Grant. Jim Rickards. George Gammon. Danielle DiMartino Booth. Tavi Costa. Peter Boockvar. Jim Iuorio. Dave Collum. Lawrence Lepard. Doug Casey. Jon Najarian and Marc LoPresti. Dominic Frisby. Adam Taggart. Bob Prechter. Adrian Day. Mark Skousen. Mary Anne and Pam Aden. Steven Hochberg. The Real Estate Guys. Brent Cook. Thom Calandra. Chris Powell. Dana Samuelson. Gary Alexander. Albert Lu. Mike Larson. Nick Hodge. Lobo Tiggre. Omar Ayales.

…and, of course, yours truly.

Again, there’s much more to come — we’re still in the midst of planning this year’s event, and I’ve got some big surprises in store.

But even at this early date, one thing seems certain: New Orleans 2022 is going to be a blockbuster!

I urge you to secure your place for New Orleans 2022.

I don’t remember an investment event as eagerly awaited as this one.

Everything — the years spent mired in the pandemic, the macro-economic setup, the geopolitical uncertainty, the teetering stock markets, soaring inflation, a looming generational commodities bull market, and the Fed’s upcoming retreat on monetary tightening — make New Orleans 2022 a must-attend event.

I fully expect our entire hotel room block to sell out this year, so you’ll have to act soon to make sure you’ll get in.

By registering now, you’ll not only save up to $400 from the full registration fee — you’ll also guarantee your place.

Just click here:

https://neworleansconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/NOIC_2022_powellgata.html

end

Ronan Manly states taht the new gold exchange in India will have no real influence on prices as of yet

(Ronan Manly/GATA)

Ronan Manly: India’s new gold exchange unlikely to influence prices

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-08-11 20:39Section: Daily Dispatches

8:40p ET Thursday, August 11 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly tonight examines the new Indian International Bullion Exchange and concludes that it will be a while, if ever, before the exchange has any impact on the world price of the premier monetary metal.

While the exchange is meant to make it easier for jewelers to import gold into India, Manly writes, it permits them only to buy metal, not to sell it on the exchange. Additionally, Manly writes, the big bullion banks already are poised to dominate the exchange.

Manly’s analysis is headlined “The New Indian International Bullion Exchange — Price Taker or Price Maker?” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/the-new-indian-international-bullion-exchange-iibx-price-taker-or-price-maker/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Nicholas B…

The LBMA Mystery

The LBMA recently released the loco London vault holdings of silver as at the end of July 2022 and the figure of 951 million ounces was some 47 million ounces less than the previous month of June. Ronan Manly conducted his analysis of LBMA loco London silver vault holdings at the end of June, so his computation of about 322 million ounces as the residual vault silver after subtracting all identified ETF hoardings and those of other known funds has probably reduced to less than 300 million ounces by the end of July. The LBMA even comments that this July 2022 figure of 951 million ounces of vault silver is the lowest recorded since publication of this statistic began in July 2016.

Thanks to Harvey Organ’s excellent archiving service, the Exchange For Physical (EFP) transfers from the COMEX to the LBMA since 1st January 2018 can be ascertained at virtually 9 billion ounces of silver. Thus , in just four and a half years ,the LBMA has had to handle these EFP demands that total about ten years’ total annual mine production of silver of about 868 million ounces per annum. This obligation to deliver 9 billion ounces of silver EFPs has either been settled in fiat currency (presumably at a premium) or else remains dangling as serial forward obligations ,which are serially renewed in a classification of less than 14 days to maturity to evade regulatory reporting. Does any one know the quantification of this liability; presumably it is separate from the reporting classification of LBMA allocated and unallocated silver liabilities.

This opaque EFP conundrum, however, is dwarfed when compared to an analysis of settlement statistics supplied by the LBMA itself. The LBMA states ‘Our clearing data represents the net volume of transfers of gold and silver physically held in London – known as Loco London – settled between the four LBMA Market Maker banks that own and operate London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (LPMCL).The granular data is accessible on a spreadsheet so it is quite easy to extrapolate the daily averages by (say) 21 trading days in a month and the totals are quite astounding. The figures are accumulated since October 1996 and reveal that these transfers total one trillion ounces of silver, (1,068,041,100,000 ) and the value totals sixteen trillion dollars ($16,031,400,000,000).If just 10% of this trading volume remains invested in LBMA contracts (either unallocated or allocated and we know that these criminals engineer elevated levels of fractional reserving) then that would mean that LBMA market maker banks have potential liabilities of 100 billion ounces of silver. If the silver price was to increase by $100 per ounce, that would mean that these silver contract liabilities would increase by ten trillion dollars. That would be unsustainable. The global reference price for physical silver is dictated by the most recent paper contract traded on the COMEX. Perhaps that is why the pressure on the COMEX silver paper price is perpetual and relentless. The reason relates to the value of physical silver obligations outstanding on the LBMA, and therefore the COMEX open interest is relatively minuscule and immaterial when compared to the horrendous implications of all LBMA outstanding contracts repricing upwards. The LBMA boasts that one billion ounces of silver were traded on the OTC market on a single day ,1st February 2022, so only dismiss my postulation of 100 billion ounces outstanding on LBMA if you have hard data that indicates otherwise, but such data is a heavily guarded secret, so no one knows.

Regards

Nicholas

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: EGGS

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

end

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7424

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7410

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 93.19 PTS OR 0.46%

2. Nikkei closed UP 727.65 OR 2.62%

3. Europe stocks CLOSED ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.44/Euro FALLS TO 1.0283

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.187/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 133.83/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +0.9865%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.06% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.07%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.21//

3j Gold at $1785.50 silver at: 20.31 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 26/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 60.92

3m oil into the 92 dollar handle for WTI and 98 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 132.41DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9427– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9695well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.875 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.147 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.96

Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Rise In Morbid Volumes With All Eyes On 50% Fib Retracement Level

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 08:08 AM

European stocks and US futures rallied on the last day of the week, however traded well off session highs in extremely low-volume trading and tracked the sudden drop in oil, as investors pressed bets that easing inflation will allow the Fed to pivot to less aggressive rate hiking (if not ease outright). S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose about 0.3%, with both underlying indexes set to post their longest sequence of weekly gains since November. Treasury yields were steady at 2.87% and the US dollar rose but was set for the worst week since May. Crude oil fell, reducing its biggest weekly gain in about four months. Gold headed for a fourth weekly gain and Bitcoin was summarily smacked down below the $24,000 level yet again as crypto bears fight to preserve the upper hand.

For the second day in a row an attempt to void the bear market rally narrative by pushing spoos above the 50% fib retracement level is being defended by bears, with futures trading at 4222, or right on top of the critical level, which also doubles as the 100DMA. If broken through it could lead to substantial upside gains as even more bears throw in the towel.

In premarket trading, Alibaba led a premarket decline in US-listed China stocks after some of the nation’s largest state-owned companies announced plans to delist from American exchanges. Bank stocks traded higher, set to gain for a fourth straight day as investors continue to pile into stocks amid signs that inflation is cooling. In corporate news, Huobi Group founder Leon Li is in talks with a clutch of investors to sell his majority stake in the crypto-exchange at a valuation of as much as $3 billion. Here are some of the other notable premarket movers:

Rivian (RIVN US) shares fall 1.4% in premarket trading after the electric vehicle-maker forecast a bigger adjusted Ebitda loss for the full year than previously expected.
Expensify (EXFY US) shares fall 14% in premarket trading after the software company’s second-quarter revenue missed the average analyst estimate.
Toast (TOST US) shares soar 15% in premarket trading after the company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year and beat analyst estimates.
Chinese stocks in US slip in premarket trading after China Life Insurance (LFC US), PetroChina (PTR US) and Sinopec (SNP US) announced plans to delist American depository shares from the NYSE.
Ciena (CIEN US) gains 2.9% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating on to overweight with strong quarters seen ahead for the telecoms and networking equipment firm.
Co-Diagnostics (CODX US) shares plunge as much as 40% in US premarket trading, after the molecular diagnostics firm flagged lower volumes for its Covid-19 test.
Olo (OLO US) falls 31% in premarket trading, after the restaurant delivery platform cut revenue guidance.
Phunware (PHUN US) falls almost 7% in premarket trading after the enterprise cloud platform posted revenue and Ebitda that missed the average estimate.
Poshmark (POSH US) gave a weaker-than- expected quarterly revenue forecast as the online marketplace for second-hand goods sees sales growth being held back by macro pressures. The stock fell about 5% in postmarket trading on Thursday.
SmartRent’s (SMRT US) lowered full-year guidance represents a more attainable earnings outlook for the smart-home automation company, Cantor Fitzgerald said. Shares fell 16% in postmarket trading.

Traders pared back bets on Fed rate hikes after a report on Thursday showed US producer prices fell in July from a month earlier for the first time in over two years. That added to Wednesday’s data on slower increases in consumer prices to provide signs of cooling but still troubling inflation. Swaps referencing the Fed’s September meeting point to some uncertainty over whether a half-point or another 75 basis-point rate hike is on the cards.

Working hard to prevent stocks from rising even more, in the latest US central banker comments, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said inflation is too high, adding she anticipates more restrictive monetary policy in 2023. Her baseline is a half-point September hike but she’s open to another 75 basis-point move if necessary, Daly said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

“The macroeconomic environment may be starting to improve a little bit, with a peak in US CPI calling into question the need to hike rates aggressively,” economists at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg said. “Inflation is still high and the Fed will still need to increase rates, but the situation is not as bad as many had feared.”

European stocks erased early gains as energy stocks fell with crude oil futures and investors weighed the impact of recent macroeconomic data on central bank policy. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.1% by 12:03 p.m. in London after gaining as much as 0.5% earlier. Health care giant GSK Plc was among outperformers, trimming a rout this week that was driven by worries about Zantac litigation, with some analysts suggesting the selloff may have been extreme. Elsewhere, travel and leisure was lifted by gains for Flutter Entertainment Plc following earnings, while consumer staples and miners declined. The region’s main stocks benchmark has risen about 10% since early July, with gains this week spurred by softer-than-expected US inflation data. Still, many investors are skeptical over the impact the report will have on monetary policy.

“We’re having another moment where the market is not listening to central banks,” said Tatjana Greil Castro, co-head of public markets at Muzinich & Co. “Marginally, investors are very reluctant to sell anything and want to buy,” she told Bloomberg Television.

Paradoxically, at the same time, data from Bank of America showed outflows from European equity funds continued for a 26th week at $4.8 billion. The recent bounce for the region’s benchmark is likely to fizzle out in the absence of a pickup in economic growth, BofA’s strategists said.

Here are the biggest European movers:

Flutter shares rise as much as much as 13% after the gambling firm reported 1H earnings that beat estimates. The strong update was led by the US and Australia, according to Goodbody.
GSK shares rise as much as 5% after its worst two-day rout on Zantac litigation worries. In response to the selloff on Zantac, GSK downplayed cancer risks from ranitidine and said it will vigorously defend all claims. Sanofi, also caught up in the Zantac-related selloff, rises as much as 3.2%, while Haleon edges up as much as 2%.
Telecom Italia gains as much as 9.1% following a Bloomberg News report that Italy’s far-right Brothers of Italy party is promoting a plan to take the phone company private and sell off its in a bid to cut its debt pile by more than half.
Nexi shares surge as much as 7.4% amid a Reuters report that the payment firm has received several unsolicited approaches from private equity firms, including Silver Lake, to take the company private.
Boozt shares rise as much as 18%, the most since October 2020, with DNB (buy) highlighting a strong beat on the bottom line for the Swedish ecommerce retailer.
Argenx shares rise as much as 3.7% after KBC reiterates its buy recommendation, saying the biotech is executing on schedule after yesterday’s European approval for Vyvgart, and with regulatory filing submitted in China.
Kingfisher shares drop as much as 4.2% after UBS cut its recommendation on the stock to sell from neutral, citing a softening outlook for the UK do-it-yourself (DIY) and do-it-for- me (DIFM) categories.
888 Holdings shares drop as much as 16%, the most since February 2015, after the gambling company reported results and forecast 2H revenue will be in line with 1H.
Galenica shares fall as much as 2.5%, with Credit Suisse recommending staying put due to “demanding” valuation.

Asian stocks rose to a two-month high as Japan lifted the region higher in a catch-up rally, with traders digesting another downside surprise in US inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.7%, poised for a third day of gains. Japan’s Topix Index added 2% after traders returned from a holiday, while markets in the rest of the region were mixed. Chinese shares fluctuated in a narrow range. Concerns on US inflation eased further after an unexpected month-on-month fall in July’s producer price index, which came a day after slower-than-expected US consumer prices. Stocks were initially strong overnight, before the rally faltered on concerns it may have gone to far. Gains in Asia were more modest on Friday, following hawkish commentary from a Fed speaker.

Some optimism has emerged across Asia this week as traders bet on slower interest-rate increases by the Fed amid easing price pressures. The regional stock benchmark headed for a fourth weekly gain, the longest streak since January 2021. Still, the gauge is down more than 15% this year, trailing other equity benchmarks in the US and Europe. “Clearly in the last month and a half, people sort of moved from that inflationary fear to the Goldilocks scenario. And I think that gives a bit of time for reflection,” Joshua Crabb, head of Asia Pacific equities at Robeco, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. The current earnings season is critical because “we’re also gonna see how much demand destruction that inflation is gonna put forward.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.5% to close at 7,032.50, dragged by losses in mining and health shares. Still, the benchmark climbed 0.2% for the week in its fourth straight week of gains. The materials sub-gauge contributed most to the gauge’s decline on Friday after iron ore fell, as a report showed stockpiles of the steel-making ingredient are still rising. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.3% to 11,730.52. The nation’s food prices surged 7.4% from a year earlier in July, the largest increase in four months, according to data released by Statistics New Zealand

Indian stocks clocked their longest stretch of weekly gains since the middle of January as a pickup in foreign buying pushed key indexes higher. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.2% to 59,462.78 in Mumbai, taking its weekly gains to almost 2%. This was the fourth week of advance for the key index. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also climbed 0.2% on Friday. Of the 30 stocks in the Sensex, half fell and the rest climbed. Reliance Industries offered the biggest boost to the key gauge. Thirteen of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. rose, led by a gauge of oil and gas companies. Foreign investors have bought a net $3.2 billion of Indian shares since the end of June through Aug. 10. That’s after dumping about $33 billion in the previous nine months as concerns over the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening boosted the dollar and spurred outflows from emerging market assets. “FPIs flows were positive this week. With results season coming towards a close, market focus will shift towards macro factors that includes inflation, central bank rate action, oil prices and recession concerns in key economies globally,” Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities wrote in a note.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index is in a holding pattern, up about 0.1%. NZD and AUD are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and GBP underperform. The Swedish krona led losses after weaker-than-expected inflation data, with the pound also lagging after stronger-than-expected data showed the UK economy shrank in the second quarter. The yen also underperformed. The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone led gains, with NOK/SEK hitting the highest since April

In rates, Treasuries were slightly richer across the curve with gains led by long-end, although futures remain near bottom of Thursday’s range. Curve mildly flatter, but spreads broadly hold Thursday’s steepening move. Gilts underperform after raft of UK data including 2Q GDP which contracted less than expected. US yields richer by as much as 4bp across long-end of the curve with 5s30s spreads steeper by more than 2bp on the day; 10-year yields around 2.865%, richer by 2bp on the day and outperforming bunds, gilts by 3.5bp and 5.5bp in the sector. Gilts underperform bunds and Treasuries, trading about 3-4bps higher across the yield curve after UK 2Q GDP contracted less than expected, with traders raising BOE tightening bets. German 10-year yield briefly rose above 1%, now up about 2bps to 0.99%. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany. Treasuries 10-year yield down 1 bps to 2.87%.

In commodities, WTI crude is trading slightly lower at ~$94, within Thursday’s range, and gold is down close to $3 at ~$1,787

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK’s GDP reading for Q2, Euro Area industrial production for June, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for August.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 4,234.25
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 442.02
MXAP up 0.6% to 163.27
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 531.44
Nikkei up 2.6% to 28,546.98
Topix up 2.0% to 1,973.18
Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 20,175.62
Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,276.89
Sensex up 0.3% to 59,482.94
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,032.51
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,527.94
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.00%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0295
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $99.90/bbl
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $99.87/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,787.09
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.25% to 105.35

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Three of China’s largest state-owned companies announced plans to delist from US exchanges as the two countries struggle to come to an agreement allowing American regulators to inspect audits of Chinese businesses
The cooler inflation reading for July is welcome news and may mean it’s appropriate for the Federal Reserve to slow its interest-rate increase to 50 basis points at its September meeting, but the fight against fast price growth is far from over, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said.
China may be ready to curb some of the excess liquidity sloshing in the banking system as it turns its focus to mitigating risks in the financial industry.
In the fight against pandemic inflation, Latin America led the world into a new age of tight money. Eighteen months later, there’s not much sign that being first in will help the region to become first out
The UK economy shrank in the second quarter for the first time since the pandemic, driven by a decline in spending by households and on fighting the coronavirus

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pc stocks were mixed following a similar indecisive lead from Wall Street where stocks and treasuries faded the initial gains from the softer-than-expected PPI data, although Japan outperformed on return from holiday. ASX 200 was dragged lower by losses across nearly all sectors including the top-weighted financial industry despite the confirmation of a return to profit for IAG, while energy bucked the trend after a recent rebound in oil. Nikkei 225 notched firm gains as it played catch-up to global peers and took its first opportunity to react to the softer inflationary signals from the US, while Softbank was among the top performers as it expects to gain USD 34bln from reducing its stake in Alibaba. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both subdued in early trade amid weakness in property stocks and ongoing COVID-related headwinds, although the Hong Kong benchmark gradually recovered with earnings releases also in the limelight.

Top Asian News

Japanese PM Kishida plans to hold a meeting on August 15th to address rising goods prices, wages and daily life, while he called for additional measures on dealing with rising food and energy prices, according to Reuters.
Jardine Matheson Slumps 9.6% as MSCI Cuts Co. Weight in Indexes
Baltic States Abandon East European Cooperation With China
Gold Set for Fourth Weekly Gain on Signs Fed to Ease Rate Hikes
Asian Gas Prices Rally on Rush by Japan to Secure Winter Supply

European bourses are firmer, but action has been relatively contained with newsflow slim, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%; however, benchmarks waned alongside US futures following China ADS updates. Currently, ES +0.4% but similarly off best levels amid Chinese stocks announcing intentions to delist their ADSs and reports that Germany is being looked at as a banking base. China Life (2628 HK), PetroChina (857 HK), Sinopec (386 HK) plan to delist ADSs from NYSE; last trading day for China Life expected to be on or after 1st September. Subsequently, China’s Securities Regulator says it is normal within capital markets for companies to list and delist. Chinese brokers are reportedly looking at Germany as a banking base amid tensions with the US, via Bloomberg citing sources. SMIC (0981 HK) CEO says increasing geopolitical tensions, elevated inflation and a cyclical downturn in demand for chips has resulted in “some panic” within the industry, via FT. Huawei – H1 2022 (CNY): Revenue -5.9% Y/Y to 301.6bln. Net Profit 15.08bln (prev. 31.39bln Y/Y). Device Business Revenue -25.3% Y/Y. 2022 will probably be the most challenging year historically for our devices business Chinese and Hong Kong regulators are to announce adjustments to the trading calendar for the stock connect

Top European News

Union Leaders Kick Off Rallies Across UK in Living Cost Protest
Baltic States Abandon East European Cooperation With China
Swedish Core Inflation Surge Fuels Bets of Faster Rate Hikes
JPMorgan Strategists Say US 2Q Earnings Fall 3% Excluding Energy
Ukraine Latest: Putin’s Economy in Focus; More Grain on the Move

DXY attempts to recover from its post-CPI lows as it eyes yesterday’s 105.46 high.
EUR, JPY, and GBP are under pressure from the firmer Dollar; EUR/USD eyes some notable OpEx for the NY cut.
The non-US Dollars are resilient this morning on the back of the general risk tone across stocks and the rise in commodities.
Fleeting SEK upside was seen in wake of inflation data, with the metrics being in-line/below expectations.

Fixed Income

Core benchmarks are little changed overall on the session and particularly when compared to price action seen earlier in the week.
Further pressure seen following the Gilt open in wake of UK GDP metrics.
USTs in-fitting with peers and the yield curve, currently, does not exhibit any overt bias

Commodities

WTI and Brent hold an upside bias in Europe amid the broader risk tone.
Spot gold is relatively uneventful as the firming Dollar keeps the yellow metal capped under USD 1,800/oz.
Base metals markets are relatively mixed with the market breadth shallow, although LME copper extends on gains above USD 8k/t.

US Event Calendar

08:30: July Import Price Index YoY, est. 9.4%, prior 10.7%; MoM, est. -0.9%, prior 0.2%
- July Export Price Index YoY, prior 18.2%; MoM, est. -1.0%, prior 0.7%
10:00: Aug. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 52.5, prior 51.5
- Aug. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 57.8, prior 58.1
- Aug. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 48.5, prior 47.3
- Aug. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.1%, prior 5.2%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.9%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This will be the last EMR from me for a couple of weeks as I’m off on holiday. We’re going to Cornwall rather than our usual France trip this summer as transporting a child in a wheelchair around a beach was seen as mildly easier than doing the same up and down a mountain. Hopefully this time next year we’ll be back in the invigorating mountain air. If you’re reading this having originated from Cornwall please don’t take offence! However I’ve never liked beach holidays and I think I’m too old to change my mind. The kids on the other hand can’t contain their excitement. So expect me to spend most of my time in an uncomfortable wetsuit trying desperately to ensure that they don’t get washed away. Give me the stress of payrolls or CPI any day over that. I’ll be gazing longingly from the sea at the golf course next door.

Life’s been quite a beach for markets of late but the last 24 hours have been a bit strange, as a second successive weaker-than-expected US inflation reading (PPI) actually left longer dated yields notably higher than where they were before the better than expected CPI on Wednesday, and at one point they were +23bps above where they were immediately after the first of these two dovish prints. The S&P 500 also reversed earlier gains of more than +1% to finish lower at -0.07%. Maybe we shouldn’t read too much into summer illiquidity but the moves have been a bit all over the place of late.

While the combination of below-expectations inflation and worsening labour data (see below) initially drove a dovish-Fed interpretation, the price action reverted throughout the day, and we closed with still around even odds between a 50bp or 75bp hike at the September FOMC meeting (61.8bps implied).

When it came to Treasuries, despite the selloff, there was a decent amount of curve steepening, with the 2yr yield climbing +0.4bps whilst the 10yr yield rose by +10.6bps to 2.89%, the highest since July 20th. This helped the 2s10s curve to see its biggest daily steepening move in over 3 months and closing at -33bps, but still having closed inverted 29 for days running. 30yr Treasuries (+14.2bps) hit the highest since July 8 after receiving a lukewarm reception at auction. Maybe the longer end yield rises actually reflect a view that the Fed will be less likely to need to choke the recovery off now inflation is cooling. So maybe yields would have been lower this week with stronger inflation prints? Or is that just the silly season getting to me? To add to the ups and downs, this morning in Asia, 10yr UST yields (-2.73 bps) are edging lower, trading at 2.86% with the 2yr yield down -1.86 bps at 3.20% thus flattening the curve a tad as we go to press.

Over in equities, the S&P 500 (-0.07%) was marginally lower last night after increasing more than +1% in the New York morning. Small caps were a big outperformer, with the Russell 2000 index up by +0.31% to reach its highest level since April as the near-term growth outlook still looks OK, whereas the NASDAQ bore the brunt of the gradual duration selloff throughout the day, falling -0.58%. Overnight, contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.22%) are moving slightly higher again.

In terms of the details of that inflation print, US producer prices fell by -0.5% in July, which was some way beneath expectations for a +0.2% rise, and marks the biggest monthly decline since April 2020 when the economy was experiencing Covid lockdowns. As with the CPI release the previous day, the PPI was dragged down by a sharp fall in energy prices, which fell by -9.0% on the month, and that helped the annual headline measure fall from +11.3% in June down to +9.8% in July. Even if you just looked at core PPI however, the reading was still softer than expected, with the monthly gain excluding food and energy at +0.2% (vs. +0.4% expected), which sent the annual gain down to +7.6%.

The prospect that the Fed would be more cautious in hiking rates was given a slight bit of extra support thanks to additional signs that the labour market was softening. The weekly initial jobless claims for the week through August 6 came in at 262k (vs. 265k expected), which is their highest level since November, and the smoother 4-week moving average also rose to a post-November high of 252k. Continuing claims climbed to 1428k, above expectations. Recall, our US economics team has showed that once the 4-week average of continuing claims increases 11% over recent lows near-term recession alarms start sounding. We’re at 1399k on the 4-week moving average on claims, still a reasonable distance from this 11% increase of 1465k. Overall, although the weekly claims data is slowly getting worse, it’s still happening in a sea of huge job openings and generally big job growth. Perhaps the labour market is behaving slightly different from usual in that you can have both big job openings but claims edging up because of a sudden skills mismatch post Covid. If so it makes traditional clues to the future direction of the economy more difficult to decipher. For us the US jobs market is still healthy for now. I suspect it won’t be in 12 months time but that’s a story for another day.

For Europe, the newsflow continued to be much more downbeat than in the US of late, as concerns mounted across the continent about the energy situation this winter. Natural gas futures rose a further +1.34% yesterday to €208 per megawatt-hour, putting them at their highest levels since early March just after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. Power prices also soared to fresh records, with German prices for next year up +5.24% to €449 per megawatt-hour, whilst French prices were up +6.62% to €615 per megawatt-hour. Governments are coming under increasing pressure to do something about this, and German Chancellor Scholz said yesterday that there would be further relief measures for consumers.

Growing concerns about an imminent recession meant that European equities also had a lacklustre day, with the STOXX 600 only up +0.06%. Sovereign bonds also lost ground, with yields on 10yr bunds (+8.2bps), OATs (+8.3bps) and BTPs (+3.8bps) all moving higher on the day, although gilts were the biggest underperformer on this side of the Atlantic with yields up by +10.8bps.

Asian equity markets are relatively quiet this morning with the exception of the Nikkei (+2.37%) which is surging and catching-up up after a holiday on Thursday, whilst the Hang Seng (+0.09%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.16%), the CSI (+0.08%) and the Kospi (+0.02%) are all edging up.

Elsewhere, the San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly in her overnight remarks indicated that a 50 bps interest rate hike in September “makes sense” following two back-to-back 75-basis-point hikes in June and July given recent economic data including on inflation. However, she added that she is open for a bigger rate hike if the data showed it was needed.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK’s GDP reading for Q2, Euro Area industrial production for June, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for August.

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Modest risk-on price action has ebbed amid China ADS updates – Newsquawk US Market Open

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 06:43 AM

European bourses are firmer, but action has been relatively contained with newsflow slim, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%; however, benchmarks waned alongside US futures following China ADS updates.
Currently, ES +0.4% but similarly off best levels amid Chinese stocks announcing intentions to delist their ADSs and reports via BBG that Germany is being looked at as a banking base.
DXY continues to recover to the modest detriment of peers, though non-US Dollars are relatively resilient.
Core benchmarks are little changed overall on the session and particularly when compared to price action seen earlier in the week
WTI and Brent hold an upside bias in Europe amid the broader risk tone, while gold is uneventful and base metals trade mixed
Looking ahead, highlights include US Import/Export Prices, Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.).

As of 11:15BST/06:15ET

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

LOOKING AHEAD

US Import/Export Prices, Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.).
Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

A European bank has agreed to process the Russian payment for the Druzhba oil transit through Ukraine, via Reuters citing sources.

EUROPEAN TRADE

Transneft says payment for oil transit to Czech has reached the bank, confirmation from Ukraine is expected, via Ria.

EQUITIES

European bourses are firmer, but action has been relatively contained with newsflow slim, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%; however, benchmarks waned alongside US futures following China ADS updates.
Currently, ES +0.4% but similarly off best levels amid Chinese stocks announcing intentions to delist their ADSs and reports that Germany is being looked at as a banking base.
China Life (2628 HK), PetroChina (857 HK), Sinopec (386 HK) plan to delist ADSs from NYSE; last trading day for China Life expected to be on or after 1st September. Subsequently, China’s Securities Regulator says it is normal within capital markets for companies to list and delist.
Chinese brokers are reportedly looking at Germany as a banking base amid tensions with the US, via Bloomberg citing sources.
SMIC (0981 HK) CEO says increasing geopolitical tensions, elevated inflation and a cyclical downturn in demand for chips has resulted in “some panic” within the industry, via FT.
Huawei – H1 2022 (CNY): Revenue -5.9% Y/Y to 301.6bln. Net Profit 15.08bln (prev. 31.39bln Y/Y). Device Business Revenue -25.3% Y/Y. 2022 will probably be the most challenging year historically for our devices business
Chinese and Hong Kong regulators are to announce adjustments to the trading calendar for the stock connect.
Click here for more detail.

FX

DXY attempts to recover from its post-CPI lows as it eyes yesterday’s 105.46 high.
EUR, JPY, and GBP are under pressure from the firmer Dollar; EUR/USD eyes some notable OpEx for the NY cut.
The non-US Dollars are resilient this morning on the back of the general risk tone across stocks and the rise in commodities.
Fleeting SEK upside was seen in wake of inflation data, with the metrics being in-line/below expectations.
Click herefor more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

Core benchmarks are little changed overall on the session and particularly when compared to price action seen earlier in the week.
Further pressure seen following the Gilt open in wake of UK GDP metrics.
USTs in-fitting with peers and the yield curve, currently, does not exhibit any overt bias.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent hold an upside bias in Europe amid the broader risk tone.
Spot gold is relatively uneventful as the firming Dollar keeps the yellow metal capped under USD 1,800/oz.
Base metals markets are relatively mixed with the market breadth shallow, although LME copper extends on gains above USD 8k/t.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

The Rhine River, Germany is on track to breach its critical level for navigability today and potentially trigger disruptions to trade of fuels across the continent, according to German government data cited by Bloomberg. However, reports via Faz indicate that Germany does not expect low levels to halt ship traffic.
Italy’s Centre-right coalition, which is set to win the 25th September election, is to abandon anti-EU policies but will look to change the terms of the EU-COVID recovery deal, due to inflation/Ukraine altering the circumstances, via Politico citing a draft pledge.
German Economy Ministry report says there is a considerably worse outlook for the German economy in H2 amid lower gas deliveries and increasing energy prices, ongoing supply-chains issues and general uncertainty.

NOTABLE DATA

UK GDP Estimate MM (Jun) -0.6% vs. Exp. -1.3% (Prev. 0.5%); YY (Jun) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 3.5%); 3M/3M (Jun) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
Swedish CPIF Ex Energy YY (Jul) 6.6% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.1%); CPIF YY (Jul) 8.0% vs. Exp. 8.2% (Prev. 8.5%)
Turkish EndYear CPI Fcst/Cb Svy* (Aug) 70.60% (Prev. 69.94%).

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Fed’s Daly (2024 voter) said inflation is too high and must be brought down, while she said inflation is showing progress but is not a victory and doesn’t want to be head faked by the inflation improvement. Daly noted her baseline is for a 50bps hike in September and has an open mind if a 75bps hike will be needed in September in which the decision on 50bps vs 75bps will depend on a lot of data not just one data point. Furthermore, Daly expects the policy rate to be at 3.4% by year-end and it is her opinion that rates will become more restrictive next year, according to a Bloomberg TV interview.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mixed following a similar indecisive lead from Wall Street where stocks and treasuries faded the initial gains from the softer-than-expected PPI data, although Japan outperformed on return from holiday.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by losses across nearly all sectors including the top-weighted financial industry despite the confirmation of a return to profit for IAG, while energy bucked the trend after a recent rebound in oil.
Nikkei 225 notched firm gains as it played catch-up to global peers and took its first opportunity to react to the softer inflationary signals from the US, while Softbank was among the top performers as it expects to gain USD 34bln from reducing its stake in Alibaba.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both subdued in early trade amid weakness in property stocks and ongoing COVID-related headwinds, although the Hong Kong benchmark gradually recovered with earnings releases also in the limelight.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

Japanese PM Kishida plans to hold a meeting on August 15th to address rising goods prices, wages and daily life, while he called for additional measures on dealing with rising food and energy prices, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

New Zealand Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 52.7 (Prev. 49.7, Rev. 50.0)
New Zealand Food Price Index (Jul) 2.1% (Prev. 1.2%)

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA//USA/TAIWAN

Bloomberg’s Lei expects Taiwan tensions to speed up and this will force a widening of USA-China relations

(Bloomberg/Lei)

Taiwan Tensions Will Speed Up US-China Decoupling

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 02:00 AM

By George Lei, Bloomberg markets live commentator and reporter

Tensions surrounding Taiwan eased a bit this week as China on Tuesday concluded its military exercises held around the island. Taiwan’s benchmark equity index closed above its 50-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since May 31.

For policy makers in both Beijing and Washington, however, the push to reduce economic dependence on each other appears far from over. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan trip and China’s military responses added tension and put decoupling on a fast track.

Since the war in Ukraine broke out in February, US and China have worked to lessen the impact on their respective supply chains and financial markets, with a potential Taiwan conflict on the mind. In early April, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Washington is ready to use all its sanctions tools if China attacks the island. Last month, she stressed the need for “trusted” US allies to shore up global supply chains.

China responded by making preparations to sanction-proof its overseas assets and banking systems — including Hong Kong’s. In May, the head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said the de facto central bank had plans for extreme situations, such as the financial hub being kicked out of the SWIFT system. The same month, China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell below the $1 trillion mark for the first time since 2010.

The latest gambit came from Washington, with President Biden signing the CHIPS Act into law on Tuesday. The legislation bans companies receiving US money from “material expansion” of chip-making in China. It is particularly relevant for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s premier chip supplier that’s currently building a factory in Arizona.

CHIPS Act helped “cement TSMC’s position with Team USA,” Bloomberg columnist Tim Culpan wrote, noting that the company’s supposed neutrality may already be questioned by Beijing after senior executives met with Pelosi last week in Taiwan. Latest events probably increased China’s urgency to get ready for future escalation, according to Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior economist at Capital Economics.

Beijing’s war games, on the other hand, have also hardened hawkish views in the West, increasing the likelihood of continued efforts to curtail technology access, Evans-Pritchard added. On Wednesday, Pelosi said at a news briefing that the US couldn’t let China establish a “new normal” around Taiwan.

Pelosi’s Taiwan trip was only brief episode amid the broader trend of US-China decoupling, Hao Hong, former Chief Strategist at Bocom International Holdings, told Bloomberg. To Hong, the future is quite clear with Washington and Beijing standing for two kinds of systems, markets and ideologies. As a result, “the correlation will fall further between Chinese and international capital markets.”

A future where US — and the West — parts ways with China may not necessarily be disastrous for domestic financial markets. Chinese companies will probably act as great hedges and remain a key part of global equity portfolios, according to Bocom’s Hong. Hedging demand, however, will likely be much smaller compared with current foreign purchases, resulting in a reduction of portfolio inflows.

Impact on China’s real economy and job markets may be much more severe as the nation still relies heavily on foreign trade for growth. External demand drives 15% of the Chinese GDP, Capital Economics’ Evans-Pritchard estimates. On a global scale, 2/3 of Chinese exports are destined for countries aligned with the US, according to Capital Economics calculations.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

GERMANY

As we promised, the Rhine River levels at Kaub are set to fall below the critical making barge passage impossible. The crisis intensifies!!

Factories located on the Rhine River depend on barge deliveries and thus this is very catastrophic!

(zerohedge)

Rhine River At Kaub Set To Fall Below Critical Mark As IEA Warns Of Prolonged Crisis

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Water levels on the Rhine River are set to drop below a critically low point by the end of this week, making it increasingly difficult for barge transport of goods — including crude oil and coal — as one of the worst energy crises in decades batters Europe.

We noted Wednesday that further up the Rhine is Kaub, Germany, a bottleneck for barges where the river is very narrow and shallow and could fall below 40 centimeters (15.7 inches) by the end of the week. A drop below that level would make it nearly impossible for barges to transit the stretch of the waterway.

New data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration expects water levels at the key waypoint west of Frankfurt could plunge to 33 centimeters (12.9 inches) by Monday. This extremely low level would mean most barges hauling commodities on Europe’s most important inland waterway that snakes 800 miles (1,300 kilometers) from the Swiss Alps through the largest industrial areas on the continent would be unable to sail through Kaub.

“This is particularly the case for the Rhine, whose nautical bottleneck at Kaub has very low water levels but which remains navigable for ships with small drafts,” said Tim Alexandrin, a spokesman for Germany’s Transport Ministry. Though by the end of the weekend or early next week, Kaub could potentially fall to 33 centimeters would put it within centimeters of the low levels recorded in October 2018 that led to a shuttering of the waterway.

“The situation is quite dramatic, but not as dramatic yet as in 2018,” said Christian Lorenz, a spokesman for the German logistics company HGK.

Factories on the Rhine are heavily reliant on barge transport. About 4% of freight moved in Germany is carried on waterways, including the Rhine. If sinking water levels at Kaub breach 40 centimeters and fall further early next week, then Germany’s industrial heartland would be in trouble, and the energy crisis would be exacerbated.

The 2018 closure of the Kaub area shaved .2 percent off German GDP that year, Deutsche Bank economist Marc Schattenberg told AFP.

“The low levels have come much earlier this time,” Schattenberg said, adding, “if problems we are now observing last longer (than in 2018), the loss of economic value becomes all the more serious.”

Last week, multiple companies along the Rhine reportedly shifted barge transport to trucking and rail networks to avoid logistical headaches on the river.

The International Energy Agency warned Thursday that low water levels at Kaub could worsen supply chain disruptions through late this year.

“The product supply situation in central and eastern Europe was already very tight before this latest crisis,” Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s oil market division, said in a Bloomberg television interview. “The low water levels make it more costly to get fuel from the seaborne market into that region.”

“This is concerning for landlocked countries that normally get fuel on the Rhine, Bosoni added. “So we’re expecting this situation to continue towards the end of the year.”

Andrew Kenningham, the chief Europe economist for Capital Economics, said Germany’s economic growth will be flat in Q3 and a contraction in the last three months of the year, “the low water level in the Rhine simply makes a recession even more likely.”

END

FRANCE

Dozens of municipalities have run out of water and now depend on a fleet of trucks hauling fresh water for survival

(zerohedge)

“Nothing Left In Pipes”: French Towns Rely on Water Truck Deliveries For Survival

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Severe drought conditions affect about 60% of the EU, and in France, dozens of municipalities have run out of water and relied on a fleet of trucks hauling fresh water for survival.

At least 100 towns and villages have run out of fresh water. The French government has stepped in to support these drought-stricken areas.

French environment minister Christophe Bechu said in dozens of municipalities, “there is nothing left in the pipes,” referring to freshwater systems that have run completely dry. He said the ‘historic’ crisis has resulted in the deployment of a fleet of trucks delivering water to areas in need.

Besides France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands are all facing water shortages and falling water levels on inland waterways (the situation on the River Rhine is one to follow). Drought conditions across 60% of the EU could have severe economic consequences, affecting energy production, agriculture, and river transportation.

Record heat across Europe has fueled “increased fire danger due to the lack of rain and the resulting dry vegetation, combined with high temperatures,” the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service noted.

In southwest France, a massive wildfire has scorched 14,000 hectares in just a few weeks, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people.

We’ve pointed out that French utility Electricite de France SA had to “reduce or halt nuclear output” because record-breaking heat on the Rhone and Garonne rivers made the water too hot to circulate through condensers and discharge back into waterways.

Meanwhile, French power prices are at a new record of over 600 euros per megawatt hour amid grid strains thanks to the lack of nuclear power generation amid heightened demand during heatwave.

The bad news is the persistent heat wave is forecasted to continue in parts of western and central Europe through the second half of August.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/USA

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

Ukraine is quite capable of shelling their own nuclear facilities

(zerohedge)

Ex-President Medvedev Warns Europe Of “Possible Incidents” At Nuclear Facilities

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 08:38 AM

Russia’s former President Dmitry Medvedev and deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev – who has been among the most outspoken hawks in terms of threats issued over the past months of war in Ukraine – has warned Europe of “possible incidents” at nuclear power plants.

“It seems like Kyiv scumbags and their Western patrons are ready to orchestrate a new Chernobyl. Rockets and shells are falling closer and closer to the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant reactor,” Medvedev said in a fresh post on Telegram.

He was referring to the ongoing crisis at the nuclear plant in southeastern Ukraine, which happens to be Europe’s largest, which has witnessed the warring parties blame each other for shelling on the facility. On Thursday there were reports that large plumes of smoke could be seen coming from the facility.

“They say it’s Russia. This is obviously 100 percent nonsense even for the stupid Russophobic public [in the West],” Medvedev continued in his statement.

“What can one say,” Medevdev concluded before warning, “Don’t forget that there are nuclear sites in the European Union, too. And incidents are possible there as well.”

It’s unclear exactly what he meant in the veiled threat, but it’s consistent with his prior nuclear warnings, for example when he said recently that the West ramping up arms shipments to the Ukrainian government would spark a proxy war that risked leading to “full-scale nuclear war”.

Following a Thursday UN Security Council emergency session which focused on the unfolding crisis at Zaporizhzhya, which reportedly is currently occupied by some 500 Russian troops, the United States said it would back erecting a ‘demilitarized zone’ around the facility.

Ukraine has accused Russian forces of destabilizing and attacking the Zaporizhzhya plant, while also acknowledging hundreds of Russian troops are present there…

“Fighting near a nuclear plant is dangerous and irresponsible – and we continue to call on Russia to cease all military operations at or near Ukrainian nuclear facilities and return full control to Ukraine, and support Ukrainian calls for a demilitarized zone around the nuclear power plant,” a State Department official said.

And IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi has said he’s “extremely concerned” and that strikes on or near the facility threaten “the very real risk of a nuclear disaster that could threaten public health and the environment in Ukraine and beyond,” according to statements days ago.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

CDC Admits It Gave False Information About COVID-19 Vaccine Surveillance

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 03:40 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is admitting it gave false information about COVID-19 vaccine surveillance, including inaccurately saying it conducted a certain type of analysis over one year before it actually did.

The false information was conveyed in responses to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for the results of surveillance, and after the CDC claimed COVID-19 vaccines are being monitored “by the most intense safety monitoring efforts in U.S. history.”

“CDC has revisited several FOIA requests and as a result of its review CDC is issuing corrections for the following information,” a CDC spokeswoman told The Epoch Times in an email.

No CDC employees intentionally provided false information and none of the false responses were given to avoid FOIA reporting requirements, the spokeswoman said.

Heart Inflammation

The Epoch Times in July submitted a FOIA, or a request for non-public information, to the CDC for all reports from a team that was formed to study post-vaccination heart inflammation by analyzing reports submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a system run by the CDC and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The CDC not only said that the team did not conduct any abstractions or reports through October 2021, but that “an association between myocarditis and mRNA COVID-19 vaccination was not known at that time.”

That statement was false.

Clinical trials of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines detected neither myocarditis nor pericarditis, two types of heart inflammation. But by April 2021, the U.S. military was raising the alarm about post-vaccination heart inflammation, and by June 2021, the CDC was publicly acknowledging a link.

The CDC previously corrected the false statement but did not say whether its teams had ever analyzed VAERS reports.

“In reference to myocarditis abstraction from VAERS reports—this process began in May 2021 and continues to this date,” the CDC spokeswoman said in an email.

The CDC has still not released the results of analyses.

Data Mining

The CDC promised in January 2021 that it would perform a specific type of data mining analysis on VAERS reports called Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR). But when Children’s Health Defense, a nonprofit, asked for the results, the CDC said that “no PRRs were conducted by the CDC” and that data mining “is outside of th[e] agency’s purview.”

Asked for clarification, Dr. John Su, who heads the CDC’s VAERS team, told The Epoch Times in an email that the CDC started performing PRRs in February 2021, “and continues to do so to date.”

The CDC is now saying that both the original response and Su’s statement were false.

The agency didn’t start performing PRRs until March 25, 2022, the CDC spokeswoman said. The agency stopped performing them on July 31, 2022.

The spokeswoman said it “misinterpreted” both Children’s Health Defense and The Epoch Times.

Children’s Health Defense had asked for the PRRs the CDC had performed from Feb. 1, 2021, through Sept. 30, 2021. The Epoch Times asked if the response to the request was correct.

The spokeswoman said the CDC thought “data mining” referred only to Empirical Bayesian (EB) data mining, a different type of analysis that the Food and Drug Administration has promised to perform on VAERS data.

“The notion that the CDC did not realize we were asking about PRRs but only data mining in general is simply not credible, since our FOIA request specifically mentioned PRRs and their response also mentioned that they did not do PRRs. They did not say ‘data mining in general,’” Josh Guetzkow, a senior lecturer at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem who has been working with Children’s Health Defense, told The Epoch Times via email.

“There is also no credible reason why they waited until March 31, 2022, to calculate PRRs, unless it was in response to our initial FOIA filed in December 2021, which was rejected on March 31, 2022—the same day they say they began their calculations. It means the CDC was not analyzing VAERS for early warning safety signals for well over a year after the vaccination campaign began—which still counts as a significant failure,” he added.

Cost of terminating City of Hamilton employees over vaccine status could near $7.4 million, staff warn | CP24.com

Inbox

Cost of terminating City of Hamilton employees over vaccine status could near $7.4 million, staff warn | CP24.com

https://www.cp24.com/news/cost-of-terminating-city-of-hamilton-employees-over-vaccine-status-could-near-7-4-million-staff-warn-1.6021421

end

CDC admits COVID is over!! It’s the vaccine, STUPID! COVID is done but is being kept ALIVE by dangerous non-neutralizing COVID gene injections that don’t stop transmission, causes infection & variants

Case in point: today, CDC ended its Covid quarantine guidance for unvaccinated people exposed to the virus; CDC also dropped its recommendation to test people in schools who don’t have symptoms

Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 12

It is the vaccine and the induced vaccinal antibodies that are causing the infections in the vaccinated and driving more and more infectious variants! CDC today basically admits it is over!

SOURCE:

CDC ends social distancing and contact quarantining Covid recommendations

Change in guidelines come as an estimated 95% of Americans ages 16 and older have acquired some level of immunity

end

Vaccine Impact

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

end

VACCINE INJURY/

CDC ADMITS Lying About Study Linking mRNA Vaccines to Myocarditis

Inbox

CDC ADMITS Lying About Study Linking mRNA Vaccines to Myocarditis

END

Twitter Censors Senior Israeli Physician-Scientist Injured by Pfizer

Inbox

Telling the truth is never easy or painless and most people live believing a lie.

https://greenmedinfo.com/blog/twitter-censors-senior-israeli-physician-scientist-injured-pfizer-vaccine

END

Now polio virus has been found circulating in NYC

(zerohedge)

NYC Warns “Polio Circulating” City After Virus Found In Sewage

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 04:50 PM

Health officials have detected poliovirus in wastewater from New York City, suggesting the virus is circulating undetected across the metro area.

The New York State Department of Health and the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene announced their findings about the virus known to cause permanent paralysis and even death.

“The risk to New Yorkers is real but the defense is so simple — get vaccinated against polio … With polio circulating in our communities there is simply nothing more essential than vaccinating our children to protect them from this virus, and if you’re an unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated adult, please choose now to get the vaccine,” Dr. Ashwin Vasan, the New York City health commissioner, stated in a Department of Health press release.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1558111093561729025&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmedical%2Fnyc-health-department-warns-polio-circulating-city-after-virus-found-sewage&sessionId=a4d4806c79c8c409300736140c30d1edef8215d3&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2d66c323e5620%3A1660322279126&width=550px

A polio case identified in Rockland County, just north of NYC, in late July was “just the very, very tip of the iceberg” and an indication there “must be several hundred cases in the community circulating,” Dr. Jose Romero, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told CNN on Wednesday.

Besides an emerging polio threat, main stream media and government have been drumming up monkeypox and COVID virus doom stories to keep people in a perpetual state of fear.

… and, of course, the government is offering polio booster vaccines.

END

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every with today’s major stories

Michael Every…

“Central Banks Are In Shock Their Households Are Too Hot, Soon To Be Too Cold And Too Hungry”

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 09:28 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

US PPI was another deflationary surprise yesterday given the 0.5% fall in headline prices m-o-m and the weaker than expected 0.2% rise in core prices. Now pipeline inflation pressures are ‘only’ 9.8% and 5.8% y-o-y, respectively. Even so, the market’s fad for “sic transitory gloria mundi” faded yesterday, with stocks failing to hold gains, and US 10-year yields up 11bp on the session and 16bp from their intra-day low.

This was arguably because oil prices rose sharply again, Brent up 2% on the day and briefly back above the psychological $100 level, after EIA data showed US gasoline demand was higher than thought (no!) and inventories are worryingly low (no!) As noted yesterday, all it will now take is the SPR being refilled just before the mid-term elections (no!), and we flip into an energy price reversal (i.e., upwards) just ahead of winter.

And so into a reversal in PPI; and so into a reversal in CPI; and so into a lack of reversal from central banks ahead; and so an imminent reversal in the market fad for “sic transitory gloria mundi” trades. Logically, anyway – but who likes logic? Clearly not markets.

Meanwhile, French and German wholesale electricity prices already continue to hit terrifying new highs daily, and while EU gas shortages might be avoided this winter, it will only be at a very high price.

In the UK, based on Bank of England (BOE) forecasts, energy bills will soon be equivalent to two full months of average take-home pay. The Guardian says Chancellor Zahawi has told firms they must “invest their “extraordinary” profits or face the threat of further taxation.”; and the Trade Union Congress has called for the government to cancel the October energy price cap rise, saying the cost of living crisis this winter is an “emergency of pandemic scale”. UK Treasury officials are apparently considering extending the new windfall tax on oil and gas companies to electricity generation. Former PM Brown is calling for the temporary nationalization of energy providers in some circumstances. This is as the most likely next PM is being backed by outright Austrian economists who want to change how the BOE works to stop artificially lowering rates and zombifying the economy.

The key point is that everyone now sees that supply is the key global issue, not propping up demand by making rich people even richer. Everyone can also see that the neoliberal Keynesian synthesis (i.e., QE, deregulation, and globalisation) we have relied on for decades is an utter failure in this key regard. They just don’t know what will work, having read so little of any other schools of economic thought, and are scrambling from windfall taxes, which disincentivise productive investment, to threats of nationalisation, which disincentivises productive investment, to artificially lowering commodity prices, which disincentivises productive investment, to, until now, artificially lowering rates, which, yes, disincentivises productive investment.

(Global blocs using Hamiltonian industrial policy/mercantilism arguably would work – but we are clearly going to try and fail every other way first, “because markets/economic advisors”.)

On top of all this, higher energy will mean higher food prices, which are already very high. Indeed, the last US CPI report (with “zero” inflation) saw the food-at-home index, i.e., purchased in grocery stores, jump at an annualized 13.1%, the fastest pace since March 1979.

In short, it’s the food, the fad, and the fugly.

As I continue to try to hammer home, developed market central banks are slack-jawed in shock at the idea of their households suddenly being too hot, soon to be too cold, and too hungry. They are being forced to actually show that they can and will DO SOMETHING about this – because what else are they for?

Of course, they aren’t doing half as much as they could: the same central banks that love to use their bully pulpit to preach to politicians about policy well outside the realms of the purely monetary are singularly silent in the face of a threat that exposes the vacuity of their shared neoliberal intellectual construct: where are the calls for industrial policy vs. repeated earlier calls for wage restraint and deregulation?

However, that means they have to do more on rates: so, less ‘fad’ (i.e., market pricing of a ‘pivot’, and ‘The ecstasy of gold’), and far more fugly (i.e., higher rates as well as high food and energy costs: “Ai ai aiii!” “Waa waa waaaa!”).

Showing them the way, Mexico just raised rates 75bps to 8.50%. No room for a 50bps step there despite US CPI and PPI. Moreover, Argentina just raised rates *by* 9.5% to 69.50%, saying, “Prices accelerated in July in the context of greater financial volatility that negatively affected inflation expectations.” No “sic transitory gloria mundi.” Notably, Argentina now has lower negative real rates than the US or Europe do (i.e., its inflation rate is only slightly above the level of nominal interest rates.)

But don’t worry: developed-world central banks will be right behind you, Latin America. Right after their regular weekly two-hour sports massage, mani/pedi, degustation lunch, cheeky beer, and quick cigar, while listening to an audiobook about new-age post-modernism.

We all wait with bated breath for what messages emerge from the central bank symposium at Jackson Hole from August 25-27.

Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports President Biden is preparing to run again in 2024. Start with walking up steps first and take it from there, why not? He just managed that fine with his under-investigation son Hunter, as both boarded Air Force One together. Simultaneously, former President Trump is calling the FBI raid on his home a witch hunt, and Attorney General Garland says he personally okayed it (without telling President Biden: because that’s clearly how things work in the real world.) All the garlands, or brick-bats, will now be on Garland, as the evidence, or lack of it, emerges. The Washington Post says the (de?)classified documents that were being searched for apparently relate to nuclear weapons.

Oh, what a joyous celebration of liberal democracy 2024 looks likely to be. Almost as good as 2022 is proving for neoliberal central banks.

Happy Friday.

end

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Here is why gasoline prices are about to surge in the uSA

(zerohedge)

Sorry White House, Gasoline Prices Are About To Surge: Here’s Why

THURSDAY, AUG 11, 2022 – 05:40 PM

There was celebration in the White House overnight when the AAA reported that the average retail gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon to the lowest level since early March.

It wasn’t just the Biden admin (which eagerly awaits the plunge in gas prices to translate in sharply higher approval ratings) however, which was enthused by the drop in gasoline: so was the broader market, expecting this drop in gas prices would allow the Fed to ease its tightening pace and accelerate the stock market bounce.

Alas, the recent drop in gas prices is unlikely to last, and not just because after dropping to pre-Ukraine war levels, oil has resumed its move higher, with Brent just shy of $100 and expected to move briskly higher…

… now that fears of collapsing gasoline demand have been shelved.

The more actionable reason why gas prices – especially in the tri-state area – are set to move much higher, is because the wholesale cost of gasoline in New York surged more than 40% against futures after regional supplies sank to the lowest level in a decade, raising the risk of shortages.

Reminding market watchers just how vast the chasm between financial and physical commodities has become, gasoline stockpiles in the central East Coast region are at the lowest absolute level since November 2012, the EIA reported yesterday. Seasonally, supplies are near an all-time low in records going back to 1993…

… and as a result, the premium for New York gasoline on the spot market, jumped by 10 cents Wednesday. Only San Francisco has more expensive wholesale gasoline.

Stockpiles have slumped as a result of tighter supply amid a rebound in demand, a drop in European gasoline imports and continued cargo diversions away from the region. This offset production efforts from East Coast refiners – all of them in the Central Atlantic region – which operated at 100.4% of nameplate capacity last week, the highest on record.

But so what? A New York shortage will hardly crippled the rest of the country? Well, not so fast: as Bloomberg notes, low gasoline supplies in region can have an outsized global impact because New York Harbor is home to physical deliveries of futures contracts that underpin trade flows around the world. A fuel tanker moving from India to Brazil, for example, is likely priced against the New York futures benchmark. So shortages in this key region that cause prices to spike would also impact prices elsewhere.

Meanwhile, gas station fuel sales have been rising over the past few weeks, according to data from price reporting agency Opis and retail tracker Gasbuddy. The implied demand figure from the EIA has been far more volatile than usual in recent weeks (and prompted allegations of manipulation by the Biden DOE), but the latest weekly jump should help further bolster retail volumes.

Commenting on the recent absurd gasoline demand reports, Rabobank’s Michael Every wrote the following:

You could hear the champagne corks fly wherever you were yesterday. After all, there was “zero US inflation” in July, as some put it. And that came after zero US recession, as some also put it, despite two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And after a red-hot labour market report. And EIA energy data showing gasoline usage apparently well below 2020 levels despite all this non-recession and jobs boom, and even as refineries are working at incredibly high capacity levels, diesel stocks are low, and exports are also down. These are all numbers/claims worthy of champagne. Yet they make little sense taken together.

And speaking of diesel, supply there remains dire as well, with seasonal distillates stockpiles languishing at the lowest level ever since March in records going back to 1993. The tightness will start to be felt when the weather turns in two months. The US northeast is the only region in the country where the majority of home and commercial heating comes from burning fuel, and while it won’t be hit as hard as Europe where a monthly electricity bill will hit 4 digits, it will still be hit very hard.

end

Onshore leak causes 600,000 barrels of oil output sht down at 7 USA gulf platforms.

(zerohedge)

600,000 Barrels Of Oil Output Shut At 7 US Gulf Platforms On Pipeline Outage

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 06:55 AM

US offshore oil drillers Shell, Chevron and Equinor halted operations at facilities pumping hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil per day on Thursday, citing an onshore pipeline leak that a port official said should take about a day to fix.

While the shut-ins are not expected to last more than a day or two, the number of facilities affected by the leak offered another example of how a relatively minor failure can affect a swath of U.S. energy infrastructure according to Reuters, which cited a person familiar who said that the shut-ins could halt about 600,000 barrels per day of oil production.

A flange connecting two pipelines onshore in Louisiana failed and caused about two barrels of oil to spill onto the ground, said Chett Chiasson, executive director of Greater Lafourche Port Commission. A fix is expected to take about a day, he added.

The spill halted operation of the Mars and Amberjack Pipelines that serve several oil production platforms off the Louisiana coast. It occurred at a booster station helps increase the pipeline pressure and advance crude oil flow to onshore storage facilities in Clovelly, Louisiana.

Shell’s Mars, Ursa, and Olympus platforms were shut because of the leak. The three are designed to produce up to 410,000 barrels of oil per day combined, according to data on the company’s website. Chevron’s Jack/St. Malo, Tahiti, and Big Foot oil facilities, which also connect to the Amberjack pipeline, have halted production. Equinor said it shut its Titan platform.

Pipeline operator Shell said it was premature to estimate the impact of the shut-in and declined to provide a timeline on when operations would resume. Murphy Oil, which also uses the Mars pipeline for some of its Gulf of Mexico operations, could not provide immediately comment on its operations, a spokesperson said.

Shell’s three platforms deliver Mars sour crude, a grade prized by oil refiners in the United States and Asia. Shell said it was evaluating “alternative flow paths” to move the oil to shore via other pipelines.

In response to the stoppage, prices for Mars sour crude briefly strengthened to trade at a 50-cent discount to U.S. crude futures. Trading in the grade has been volatile, as it competes domestically with sour barrels released from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum reserve and in international markets with cut-priced Russian Urals barrels.

Fourchon Harbor Police Chief Michael Kinler said there was no sign of vandalism at the booster station and the amount of oil that leaked was not enough to halt traffic on the waterway or roads.

The leak happened late Wednesday or early Thursday between checks of the booster station infrastructure, Chiasson said. No waterways were affected by the spill and operations at the port were not affected, he added.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0283 DOWN 0.0036 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 133.83 UP 0.820 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2183 UP 0.0062

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 4.78 POINTS UP 0.15%

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 93.19 PTS OR 0.46%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.50% // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 93.19 PTS OR 0.46%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.78 PTS UP 0.15%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 4.78%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 727.65 OR 2.62%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1785,00

silver:$20.28

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 105.44 UP 45 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.99% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.199% UP 1 AND 5/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.09%// UP 3 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.05 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.987%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0257 DOWN .0063 or 63 basis points

USA/Japan: 133.56 UP 0.561 OR YEN DOWN 56 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2132 DOWN 0.0062 OR 62 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0023 OR 23 BASIS pts to 1.2780

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7428

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.7383

TURKISH LIRA: 17.95 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.199

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from THURDAY at 2.857% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.132 DOWN 3 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 105.60 UP 61 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 34.94 PTS OR 0.47%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 101.34 POINTS OR 0.74%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 9.19PTS OR 0.14%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 29.00 OR 0.35%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 112.55 PTS OR 0.49%

WTI Oil price 92.43 12: EST

Brent Oil: 98.22 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE FALLS TO: 60.68 DOWN 0 AND 6/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.987

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0262 DOWN .0059 OR 59 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2139 DOWN .0056 or 56 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 133.44 UP 0.426//YEN DOWN 43 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2768 UP 0.0005 (CDN dollar DOWN 5 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 91.89

Brent OIL: 98.02

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.2777 DOWN01 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.116 DOWN 4 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.94

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 60.65 UP 0 AND 6/100 ROUBLES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 424.38 PTS OR 1.27 %

NASDAQ 100 UP 273.89 PTS OR 2.08%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.53 DOWN 0.67 PTS (3.22)%

GLD: $167.47 UP $1.52 OR 0.91%

SLV/ $19.17 UP 50 CENTS OR 2.68%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

“Sea Of Green”: Bears Crushed As Stocks Storm Above 50% Fib Retracement

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 04:11 PM

And just like that, the bears were run over.

We had a hint that today’s session was going to be a faceripper when we reported last night that some of the most stubborn market bears – the hedge funds – had thrown in the towel and had capitulated on their shorts. Sure enough, amid this accelerating marketwide short squeeze (which so far still has evaded the most bearish “long only” funds which we will discuss in a latter post), today’s meltup was especially memorable as it not only cemented the Nasdaq’s new bull market, but sent the broader market up more than 3% for the week, its 4th consecutive week of gains (starting with the week when Powell announced “we’re at neutral”) the longest stretch of gains since November…

… thanks to a sea of green across every single sector…

… but more importantly today’s eruption higher has pushed stocks above key thresholds, such as the 200DMA on the Russell…

… and leaving the 100DMA on the S&P far in the rearview mirror with the 200DMA looming…

… but most importantly, the S&P is now back over the 50% retracement level from the Jan all time high to the Jun bear market lows.

This is key because as we noted yesterday, there has never been a “bear market rally” that bounce back above the 50% fib and then went on to make lower lows, although as Michael Burry earlier noted earlier this week, he clearly disagrees that this is anything more than a bear market rally.

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While time will tell who is right, for once Burry is on the side of the Fed, which is not only actively shrinking its balance sheet now thanks to QT…

… for now retail remains firmly in control, and this was another week when meme stocks stormed higher as forced short squeezes sent the meme stock basket to the highest level in 5 months…

… propelling names like Gamestop, Bed Bath and Beyond and AMC to multi-month highs.

In fact, despite the Fed balance sheet shrinkage, our consolidate bubble basket chart shows a strong rebound across various “bubble” components such as momentum longs, unprofitable tech names, SPACs, cryptos and even the ARK fund, as some of the highest beta trash out there is already pricing in not only the end of QT but the start of QE…

… and nowhere was this more obvious than in cryptos where ETH today traded to a new 3 month high and is set to break above $2,000 this weekend, up more than 100% from its June lows.

“The music hasn’t stopped,” said Matt Bartolini, State Street Global Advisors’ head of SPDR Americas Research. “The labor market continues to be positive, earnings growth continues to be positive. So largely, if there is a recession, it’s going to be relatively shallow.”

While yields went nowhere today, unlike yesterday’s sharp spike which depressed risk assets, and oil sliding among speculation that the neverending negotiation over the Iran Nuclear Deal may finally be coming to a close, we even saw some upside to the precious metal complex with silver closing at the highest of the day, alongside gold which managed to sneak above 1,800 in the last few minutes of trading.

Yet for all the meltup euphoria, a casual look at what lies ahead brings up storm clouds because unless earnings rebound – and with margins collapsing that’s unlikely – the markets will need to see multiple expansion, which however is unlikely unless real yields drop turn negative again…

… which however is especially unlikely since the Fed will have to aggressively step in and contain the market’s froth which has undone the tightening from the latest 150bps of Fed rate hikes…

… leaving Powell with no other choice than to hammer markets at the first possible opportunity

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

ii) USA DATA//

do not read much into this report

(zerohedge)

UMich Sentiment Jumps But Long-Term Inflation Expectations Unexpectedly Rise

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 10:22 AM

On the surface, today’s UMichigan consumer sentiment print came well above expectations (as one would expect with the midterm elections just 3 months away): the headline sentiment index jumped to 55.1 from 51.5 and beating expectations of 52.5, driven by a surge in expectations from a decade low of 47.3 to 54.9, beating expectations of 48.5 even as current conditions actually dropped from 58.1 to 55.5, missing expectations of 57.8.

Contrary to expectations, it was actually Republican and Independent sentiment that improved in July, while Democrat sentiment tumbled to a fresh two-year low.

While optimism may have improved, buying conditions did not and as the chart below shows, buying conditions for most major purchases – house, car, large durables – remain mired at or near all time lows as inflation continues to crippled consumers’ shopping mood:

Below are some of the key comments from the report: as noted above, they underscore the schism between growing optimism about the future and deteriorating current conditions:

“All components of the expectations index improved this month, particularly among low and middle income consumers for whom inflation is particularly salient.”
“High income consumers, who generate a disproportionate share of spending, registered large declines in both their current personal finances as well as buying conditions for durables.”
“While consumers’ views of their personal finances are essentially unchanged from last month, when asked specifically about the trajectories of their incomes over the next year the median expected change was 2.1%, up from 1.1% the past two months.”

But while the headline UMich numbers were decidedly mixed, what may spook markets is that unlike the recent record collapse in inflation expectations documented by the NY Fed Consumer Survey earlier this week…

… the UMich inflation expectations actually increased over the long run and while inflation over the next year dropped from 5.2% to 5.0% (vs 4.6% one year ago), below the 5.1% forecast, median inflation expectations for the 5-10 year period jumped to 3.0% from 2.9% and well above the expectations of 2.8% (while the 5-10 year mean expectation, meanwhile, rose from 3.4% to 4.0%, and back to its all time high). So much for lower gas prices taking inflation expectations lower

As a reminder, it was the 3%+ print (subsequently revised well lower) two months ago that prompted Powell to hike by a higher than expected 75bps in June. Which is why today’s 5-10Y inflation forecast was closely watched and hints at a continuation of tightening by the Fed.

As Bloomberg notes, “this is not a report that will comfort the Fed, and while it won’t swing the balance of risk for September to 75 bps, it does suggest that declaring victory over inflation is decidedly premature.”

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a. USA economic stories

Manhattan rents hit record highs

(zerohedge)

Manhattan Rents Hit New Record High As Peak Season Could Lead To Cooling In Fall

THURSDAY, AUG 11, 2022 – 06:00 PM

Manhattan apartment rents jumped again in July into uncharted territory as a combination of low supply, soaring interest rates, and increasing demand suggests leasing activity will stay strong through summer.

Let’s revisit our housing note from mid-April, “Not A Peak” – Manhattan Apartment Rents Hit Another Record High that correctly pointed out how prices would soar this summer.

Bloomberg reported, citing new data from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate, that the median rent on new leases last month was a whopping $4,150, up 2.5% from June and 29% from a year earlier.

Median rents have smashed records in the past six months, even as listing inventory increased by 3.7% from June. The vacancy rate rose above 2% for the first time in seven months to 2.08%. Even as supply returns, about 20% of all new leases signed in the borough involved bidding wars, with some renters locking in contracts 13% over the asking price in July.

“New York apartment costs began rising more than a year ago as the city, and Manhattan, in particular, rebounded from the depths of the pandemic. July’s prices were stoked by a pullback in homebuying and typical renting patterns that always make the summer an expensive time of year for Manhattan renters,” Bloomberg said.

Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, said elevated mortgage rates push more people into rental markets during the peak rental season. He expects rent prices to reach another record high this month before possibly topping in fall when seasonal demand plateaus.

Even though both headline and core CPI inflation were softer than expected in July, Shelter costs continued to rise (+0.5% MoM). On the year, the shelter index rose 5.7%.

And there is some good news. As we recently outlined, Apartment List data shows CPI shelter data should peak sometime in September or October.

If you’re in the market for a new rental, perhaps wait until the fall when cooling should begin to get a better deal.

end

Trump shattering all fundraising records after the FBI Mar a Lago raid

(Philips/Epoch Times)

Trump ‘Shattering’ All Fundraising Records After FBI Mar-a-Lago Raid

THURSDAY, AUG 11, 2022 – 09:40 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former President Donald Trump shattered fundraising efforts following the FBI Mar-a-Lago raid, according to his son Eric.

“Breaking: DonaldJTrump.com is shattering all fundraising records and I’m told has raised more money in the past 24 hours than ever before in recent history! The American people are [angry]!” Eric Trump wrote on Truth Social.Former U.S. President Donald Trump applauds upon arrival at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas, Texas, on Aug. 6, 2022. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

The former president’s second-oldest son did not say how much was raised in the past two days.

After Trump confirmed the raid occurred at his Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday, he has sent out numerous emails and text messages that include links to donate.

Trump and other top Republicans say the FBI and Department of Justice are acting in a blatantly political manner, with members of Congress promising investigations. Further, they’ve accused the Biden administration of weaponizing federal law enforcement to harm Trump’s and Republicans’ chances during the midterm elections, which are only about 90 days away.

“They are trying to stop the Republican Party and me once more,” Trump said in a fundraising email Tuesday, which was seen by The Epoch Times. “The lawlessness, political persecution, and Witch Hunt, must be exposed and stopped.”

Trump on Tuesday also released a political ad describing the United States as a “nation in decline” and makes reference to what is described as numerous failures on behalf of the Biden administration including the fall of Afghanistan, inflation, high energy prices, and more.

“We are a nation that allowed Russia to devastate a country, Ukraine, killing hundreds of thousands of people, and it will only get worse,” Trump says in the clip. “We are a nation that has weaponized its law enforcement against the opposing political party like never before.”

More Details

Both the Justice Department and FBI have declined to comment or even confirm the raid to numerous news outlets. The Epoch Times has contacted the two agencies for comment.Secret Service personnel are seen in front of the home of former President Donald Trump at Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla. on August 8, 2022. The FBI raided the home reportedly to retrieve classified White House documents. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images)

Stark images of FBI agents holding rifles during the Mar-a-Lago raid have since been uploaded online as Trump spokeswoman Christina Bobb confirmed about two dozen agents descended on the property Monday. She told news outlets that Trump’s team members were denied the ability to watch the agents, who took boxes of documents.

On Truth Social Wednesday, Trump warned that the FBI may have planted evidence.

Trump Demands ‘Immediate Release’ Of FBI Raid Documents

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 07:54 AM

Update (0032ET): President Trump has effectively dared the Department of Justice to release the documents related to the Monday raid on Mar-a-Lago.

“Not only will I not oppose the release of documents related to the unAmerican, unwarranted, and unnecessary raid and break-in of my home in Palm Beach, Florida, Mar-a-Lago, I am going a step further by ENCOURAGING the immediate release of those documents, even though they have been drawn up by radical left Democrats and possible future political opponents, who have a strong and powerful vested interest in attacking me, much as they have done for the last 6 years…” Trump said in a Thursday night post on Truth Social.

“This unprecedented political weaponization of law enforcement is inappropriate and highly unethical. The world is watching as our Country is being brought to a new low, not only on our border, crime, economy, energy, national security, and so much more, but also with respect to our sacred elections!” he said in a subsequent post.

* * *

The FBI was looking for ‘classified documents relating to nuclear weapons,’ among other things, during its Monday raid at former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, WaPo reports, citing ‘people familiar with the investigation.’

So – we’re to believe that the FBI took several boxes from Trump in June, told him to put a bigger lock, and then two months later realized ‘oh — he might have nuclear secrets‘ – justifying the raid.

The leakers did not offer additional details.

Material about nuclear weapons is especially sensitive and usually restricted to a small number of government officials, experts said. Publicizing details about U.S. weapons could provide an intelligence road map to adversaries seeking to build ways of countering those systems. And other countries might view exposing their nuclear secrets as a threat, experts said.

One former Justice Department official, who in the past oversaw investigations of leaks of classified information, said the type of top-secret information described by the people familiar with the probe would probably cause authorities to try to move as quickly as possible to recover sensitive documents that could cause grave harm to U.S. security. -Washington Post

“If the FBI and the Department of Justice believed there were top secret materials still at Mar-a-Lago, that would lend itself to greater ‘hair-on-fire’ motivation to recover that material as quickly as possible,” said David Laufman, the former chief of the Justice Department’s counterintelligence section.

So we assume the narrative will now be that Trump leaked, or could have leaked, nuclear secrets to Putin – which justified “authorities to try to move as quickly as possible to recover sensitive documents” in the name of national security.

Right…

* * *

Attorney General Merrick Garland revealed during a brief Thursday speech that he personally approved the search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, and that the DOJ has asked a federal court to unseal the document.

“Just now, the Justice Department has filed a motion in the Southern District of Florida to unseal a search warrant and property receipt relating to a court approved search that the FBI conducted earlier this week,” Garland said.

Trump allies have suggested that the warrant was politically motivated, while Trump himself said on Truth Social on Wednesday that the FBI may have planted evidence.

The search is connected to an investigation on whether Trump unlawfully retained presidential records – including classified materials, following his departure from office in January 2021.

According to US Attorney Juan Antonio Gonzalez from the Southern District of Florida, “The public’s clear and powerful interest in understanding what occurred under these circumstances weighs heavily in favor of unsealing” the warrant.

Jay I. Bratt, the Justice Department’s chief for Counterintelligence and Export Control Section National Security Division, co-signed the document.

According to the four-page motion, a judge signed and approved of the search warrant on Aug. 5, the Friday before the search was executed. The Justice Department also seeks to reveal the property receipt listing the seized items and filed today with the court.

Shortly after the government’s filing, U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart set a speedy pace to determine whether Trump opposes unsealing. -Law & Crime

“On or before 3:00 p.m. Eastern time on August 12, 2022, the United States shall file a certificate of conferral advising whether former President Trump opposes the Government’s motion to unseal,” Reinhart wrote.

* * *

US Attorney General Merrick Garland will make a statement to the media at 2:30 pm ET on Thursday, following the FBI’s Monday raid on Mar-a-Lago.

Garland has found himself in the crosshairs of conservatives, who claim that the establishment has once again ‘weaponized’ the DOJ against Donald Trump.

Sen. Rand Paul and other conservatives have called for an investigation.

“And if it warrants it, there’s going to have to be a look at whether or not the attorney general has misused his office for political purposes. Have they gone after a political opponent? I mean, this is beyond the pale,” he told Fox News on Wednesady. “No one would have ever imagined before that we would be using or one political party would be using the FBI to attack their political opponents.”

END

iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues/

THIS IS HAPPENING FAR TO OFTEN:

Fire erupts at Pendleton, Oregon flour mill

(MacSlavo)

Fire Erupts At Pendleton, Oregon Flour Mill

by Mac Slavo | Aug 11, 2022 | Headline News | 0 comments

A fire has erupted at a Pendleton, Oregon flour mill. This is just one more fire in a long string of food production or food storage warehouses just this year.

Pendleton Fire Department, Umatilla Tribal Fire Department, and Umatilla County Fire District No. 1 were the first to respond to the scene of the blaze at 501 S.E. Emigrant Ave. Soon after, fire departments from La Grande and Boardman also were responding.

Pendleton Assistant Fire Chief Tony Pierotti said this blaze kicked off at about 4:30 a.m., and all signs point to the massive structure as a total loss, according to a report by the East Oregonian. Pierotti said silos were at full capacity of finished grain, so the fire fuel load was extreme.

Grain Craft, the third largest flour miller in the United States, owns the mill and employs 22 people there. The company issued this statement:

“Early (Wednesday) morning a fire erupted at the Grain Craft flour mill in Pendleton, Oregon. There have been no injuries reported and our focus remains on the safety and well-being of our team members and the surrounding community. We are supporting all authorities as they contain the fire and mitigate the damage where possible. We are still working to understand the situation, however, everyone is safe, and we will update when we have more information.”

Another Massive Fire At A Farm Supply Store That Sells Animal Feed & Fertilizer

Coincidence? Two Separate Fires Destroy Chicken Farm & Agricultural Equipment Dealer In MN

How many coincidences are too many? The food supply chain is under immense stress right now. It won’t take much more to completely wipe out shelves at local grocery stores. One event causing panic and fear in the population will be enough.

PREPPING FOR THE UPCOMING GOVERNMENT-INDUCED FOOD SHORTAGES

Bill Gates & Food Corporations Worked To End Livestock Production, Pushed Lab-Grown Meat

SWAMP STORIES

Here’s The Warrant: DOJ Investigating Trump For Potential Violations Of Espionage Act, Obstruction Of Justice

FRIDAY, AUG 12, 2022 – 03:37 PM

Update (1537ET): Politico reports that based on the search warrant, the FBI is investigating former President Trump for “removal or destruction of records, obstruction of an investigation, and violating the Espionage Act,” while Breitbart has the actual statutes from the warrant.

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The documents, which are expected to be unsealed later Friday after the Justice Department sought their public disclosure amid relentless attacks by Trump and his GOP allies, underscore the extraordinary national security threat that federal investigators believed the missing documents presented. The concern grew so acute that Attorney General Merrick Garland approved the unprecedented search of Trump’s estate last week.

Taylor Budowich, a spokesperson for Trump, said the FBI’s move was “not just unprecedented, but unnecessary — and now they are leaking lies and innuendos to try to explain away the weaponization of government against their dominant political opponent. This is outrageous.” -Politico

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An interesting point:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1558173592076034053&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fhoax-trump-denies-nuclear-weapons-report-likens-steele-dossier&sessionId=e55af5aef9be3b2c3331cf54dd2052e7b3bb48e9&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2d66c323e5620%3A1660322279126&width=550px

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has called for AG Merrick Garland to release the information which predicated the warrant.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-3&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1558113030365450240&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fhoax-trump-denies-nuclear-weapons-report-likens-steele-dossier&sessionId=e55af5aef9be3b2c3331cf54dd2052e7b3bb48e9&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2d66c323e5620%3A1660322279126&width=550px

According to Human Events‘ Jack Posobiec:

The warrant details the address and locations to be searched, including that “The locations to be searched include the ‘45 Office,’ all storage rooms, and all other rooms or areas within the premises used or available to be used by FPOTUS and his staff and in which boxes or documents could be stored, including all structures or buildings on the estate.”

The warrant did not include a call to search parts of the property that are in use by members of the Mar-a-Lago club, or rentals.

It further reads that the “Property to be seized” includes “All physical documents and records constituting evidence, contraband, fruits of crime or other items illegally possessed in violation” of legal codes, including:

“Any physical documents with classification markings, along with any containers/boxes (including any other contents) in which such documents are locations, as well as any other containers/boxes that are collectively stored or found together with the aforementioned documents and containers/boxes:

“Information, including communications in any form, regarding the retrieval, storage, or transmission of national defense information or classified material;

“Any government and/or Presidential Records created between January 20, 2017,” the day Trump took office, and the end of his term.

Additionally, the warrant demands the seizure of “Any evidence of the knowing alteration, destruction, or concealment of and government and/or Presidential Records, or of any documents with classification markings.”

A receipt of property for dozens of boxes follows, with that receipt signed by Trump attorney Christina Bobb on August 8, at 6:19 pm.

The reason for the search warrant was not made public, and the probable cause is not noted as part of the documents.

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/586754620/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-OmfqQpNxGxmfku2WYrKm

EXCLUSIVE: Warrant and Prop… by Celine Ryan Ciccio

* * *

Update (1512ET): President Trump had more to say on Friday about Monday’s FBI raid on his residence at Mar-a-Lago.

“Number one, it was all declassified. Number two, they didn’t need to “seize” anything. They could have had it anytime they wanted without playing politics and breaking into Mar-a-Lago. It was in secured storage, with an additional lock put on as per their request,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“They could have had it anytime they wanted—and that includes LONG ago. ALL THEY HAD TO DO WAS ASK. The bigger problem is, what are they going to do with the 33 million pages of documents, many of which are classified, that President Obama took to Chicago?”

Pundit Mark Levin makes some great points via Twitter:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-4&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1558167397844000769&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fhoax-trump-denies-nuclear-weapons-report-likens-steele-dossier&sessionId=e55af5aef9be3b2c3331cf54dd2052e7b3bb48e9&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2d66c323e5620%3A1660322279126&width=550px

(continued)

C. Did they look in June? If so, didn’t they see the documents? If they did not look, why not?

D. 2. If the FBI felt the Trump lawyers were not cooperative, all they had to do is go to court to enforce their subpoena or get a second subpoena.

E. Instead, there was a TWO-MONTH gap between the June meeting and the seeking/execution of the search warrant in August. Why was there a two-month gap if there was an urgent necessity for a search warrant? Why wasn’t a search warrant sought immediately?

F. 3. Once again, I make the argument that this was pretextual for the purpose of grabbing anything they could find, using the plain view doctrine as an attempt to find anything related to January 6, among other things.

* * *

Update (1325ET): The DOJ leak-fest continues, this time with the Wall Street Journal reporting that the FBI “removed 11 sets of classified documents, including some marked as top secret and meant to only be available in special government facilities” (much like the 7 ‘top secret’ email chains on Hillary Clinton’s computer).

end

“Be Willing To Use Deadly Force”: IRS Sparks Uproar Over Job Posting

THURSDAY, AUG 11, 2022 – 07:20 PM

Only two things in life are certain – death and taxes, and the IRS can take care of both.

As the agency prepares to add 87,000 new positions over 10 years, pending the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act that will give the agency $80 billion (half of which will be earmarked to help crack down on tax evasion), an online job posting for “Criminal Investigation Special Agents” has sparked outrage over a “key requirement” that applicants be “legally allowed to carry a firearm.”

“Major duties” of the job include “Carry a firearm and be willing to use deadly force, if necessary,” and “Be willing and able to participate in arrests, execution of search warrants, and other dangerous assignments.”

While Democrats say the IRS’s enhanced collections will raise an additional $124 billion in federal revenue from tax cheats over the next decade, Republicans warn that an army of IRS agents will do nothing but harass small business owners and lower-income workers. According to an analysis by House Republicans, Americans earning less than 75,000 per year will receive 60% of the additional tax audits.

The analysis, which is a conservative estimate based upon recent audit rates and tax filing data, shows that individuals with an annual income of $75,000 or less would be subject to 710,863 additional IRS audits, while those making more than $1 million would receive 52,295 more audits under the bill.

Overall, the IRS would conduct more than 1.2 million more annual audits of Americans’ tax returns, according to the analysis. Another 236,685 of the estimated additional audits would target individuals with an annual income between $75,000 and $200,000.

Democrats insist Americans making less than $400,000 will not be targeted by agents hired due to the spending bill. -NY Post

IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig, however, insists that “audit rates” won’t increase relative to recent years.

In a related piece of legislation reported by the Epoch Times, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) introduced a bill last month which would bar the IRS from acquiring ammunition. Known as the “Disarm the IRS Act,” the bill (pdf) stipulates that the IRS is “prohibited from acquiring ammunition” and “notwithstanding any other provision of law.” Reps. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Ga.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), and Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.) are co-sponsors of the measure, according to his office.

It came after Gaetz, in interviews with Fox News and other outlets, expressed concern after he discovered that the IRS purchased more than $700,000 in ammunition over a span of several days days. The congressman suggested that it’s part of a broader White House plan to disarm Americans.

“Here’s the Biden plan: Disarm Americans, open the border, empty the prisons–but rest assured, they’ll still collect your taxes, and they need $725,000 worth of ammunition, apparently, to get the job done,” he told Fox News last week.

The bill, he said, would put a “total moratorium on the IRS buying ammo. When we used to talk about the IRS being weaponized, we were talking about political discrimination, not actual weapons for the IRS.”

“Undeniably, part of the strategy is that with one hand, the Biden regime is doing everything they can to suppress access to ammunition for regular Americans, while with the other hand, they are scooping up all the ammo that they can possibly find,” Gaetz alleged.

5 Million Rounds

According to a report released by the Government Accountability Office in 2018, the IRS has been stockpiling ammunition and weapons for years. As of 2018, the agency had 4,487 firearms and 5,062,006 rounds of ammunition in its inventory, the report said.

A 2018 report from Forbes noted that the IRS buys guns and ammunition for its Criminal Investigation Division. Agents in that division are the only employees in the IRS that carry firearms, according to its website.

end

Open in browser What the hell did I hear Biden just say in this video about Americans? Trump said that? How did we go from this to that?Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 12 Video

King report

The King Report August 12, 2022 Issue 6822

Independent View of the News

NYC rent hits a new record (+29.4% y/y), no break for New Yorkers in sight https://t.co/Otm7NTFSBw

US July PPI unexpectedly and astoundingly declined 0.5% m/m; +0.2% was expected. Y/y PPI fell to 9.8% from 11.3%; 10.4% was expected. Core PPI increased 0.2% m/m and 7.6% y/y; +0.4% and 7.7% was consensus. Apparently, Mr. Bond, who is more insightful than equity jockeys, recognized that Core PPI y/y was only 0.1% better than expected AND June Core PPI y/y was revised to 8.4% from 8.2%.

We’ve mentioned numerous times that a trend during Biden’s reign is economic data being revised negatively. This is like a corporation that cooks earnings, and then takes a nonrecurring charge (and announcing share buybacks and job cuts) in Q4 results. Will July CPI be revised next month?

@zerohedge: 80% of the July decline in the index for final demand goods is attributable to gasoline prices, which fell 16.7%.

Rabobank Warns U.S. Econ Data Make Little Sense, “Until You Recall Midterm Elections Are Coming Up”  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-bank-warns-us-econ-data-make-little-sense-until-you-recall-midterm-elections-are-coming

While equities soared on Disney’s results, July PPI, and rejuvenated speculative urges, bonds declined sharply. USUs oscillated between small gains and losses from the Asian open until they soared from 7:46 ET (on expectations or advance knowledge of good PPI report) until one minute after the July PPI report was released at 8:30 ET. Hmmm…   USUs then plunged to 140 17/32 (from 142 27/32) at 10:41 ET.

ESUs traded similarly to USUs. ESUs peaked at 10:20 ET (4260.50). By 11:51 ET, they were 4121.75. Nasdaq turned negative at 11:50 ET. The Nasdaq 100 peaked at 10:19 ET and then tumbled. The NY Fangs+ Index peaked at 10:18 ET; and then tumbled.

After a 20-handle ESU bounce over 1.5 hours, ESUs and stocks commenced a tumble at 13:20 ET. ESUs and stocks hit daily lows at 15:12 ET. A modest zigzag rally developed into the close.

NAR: Four in Five Metro Areas Notched Double-Digit Price Gains in Second Quarter of 2022
Eighty percent of metro markets – 148 of 185 – saw double-digit annual price appreciation in median single-family existing-home sales prices (70% in the previous quarter). The national median single-family existing-home price rose 14.2% annually to $413,500, surpassing $400,000 for the first time…
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/four-in-five-metro-areas-notched-double-digit-price-gains-in-second-quarter-of-2022

Positive aspects of previous session
Manic equity buying before and after the release of July PPI

Negative aspects of previous session
Mr. Bond declined sharply; the dollar declined smartly
Equities tumbled after an early rally – very negative development

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Will US economic stats continue to be cooked until the November Midterm Elections?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4222.20
Previous session High/Low: 4257.91; 4201.41

CDC drops quarantine, routine testing recommendations in new COVID-19 guidelines
“Quarantine is no longer recommended for people who are exposed to COVID-19 except in certain high-risk congregate settings such as correctional facilities, homeless shelters, and nursing homes,” the CDC said in a statement…”The current conditions of this pandemic are very different from those of the last two years,” CDC senior epidemiologist Greta Massetti told reporters Thursday…
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2022/08/11/cdc-revises-COVID-19-guidelines/7801660251385/

@NBSaphierMD: Now that the CDC no longer differentiates between Covid vaccinated/unvaccinated individuals, every employee fired for being unvaccinated should be given their job back with a formal apology and backpay. Not to mention the kids who were kicked out of school because of vaccine/booster mandates. History will reflect poorly on the US handling of the pandemic. Reparations must be made.

IRS Deletes Job Posting Seeking Applicants Willing to ‘Use Deadly Force’
Carrying “a firearm and be willing to use deadly force, if necessary.”…
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/irs-deletes-job-posting-seeking-applicants-willing-to-use-deadly-force/

@charliebilello: P/E Ratios: Amazon: 128x, Tesla: 106x, Microsoft: 30x, Apple: 28x, Google: 22x, Netflix: 22x, S&P 500: 21x, Facebook: 15x Price to Sales Ratios: Tesla: 15x, Microsoft: 11x, Apple: 7x, Google: 6x, Facebook: 4.2x, Netflix: 3.6x, Amazon: 3.0x, S&P 500: 2.5x Data via @ycharts

Fed Balance Sheet: +$4.518B. Still waiting for the QT that was supposed to commence on June 1!

@OccupytheFeds: The Fed just bought another $18.7B in USTs today ($13.2B 30-Yr Notes). $88B+ in the past week or so. You’re delusional if you don’t think the Fed isn’t manipulating markets with this. But you’re mistaken if you don’t think the Fed is also engaging in b/s runoff that matters. https://t.co/D6P8FMsmqg

The S&P 500 Index on Wednesday morning was higher than when Fed Funds were 0% in March 2022!

Today – The S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 had key reversal days on Thursday: Hit a high for the move and then close negative for the day. This is a very negative technical pattern. More importantly Mr. Bond closed -1 30/32 for the day.

However, today is a summer Friday and the Friday before expiry week. So, be alert for a late rally.

Expected economic data: July Import Price Index -1.0% m/m, ex-Petroleum -0.1%; Export Price Index -1.0%; UM Sentiment 52.5, Current Conditions 57.8, Expectations 48.5

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3949; 100-day MA: 4110; 150-day MA: 4217; 200-day MA: 4330
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,738; 100-day MA: 32,666; 150-day MA: 33,290; 200-day MA: 33,915

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3735.11 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4083.44 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4163.86 triggers a buy signal

NYT April 2, 2022: Garland Faces Growing Pressure as Jan. 6 Investigation Widens
The attorney general’s deliberative approach has come to frustrate Democratic allies of the White House and, at times, President Biden himself… Mr. Biden confided to his inner circle that he believed former President Donald J. Trump was a threat to democracy and should be prosecuted… (Joe had to know about the raid.)…  he has said privately that he wanted Mr. Garland to act less like a ponderous judge and more like a prosecutor who is willing to take decisive action over the events of Jan. 6… https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/us/politics/merrick-garland-biden-trump.html

John Solomon reports the predicate for the Mar-a-Lago search warrant was the Presidents Record Act, which is a misdemeanor at worst, and secondly, protection of classified documents, which has been violated often, including by Hillary, Clintonite Sandy Berger, Comey, and possibly Obama.

The Presidential Papers Act is NOT a criminal statute according to ex-federal prosecutor Andy McCarthy.

@TomFitton: “Presidential Records Act does not confer any mandatory or even discretionary authority on Archivist to classify records.  Under the statute, this responsibility is left solely to the President.” Fed court judge on Bill Clinton hiding records in his sock drawer.

National Archives official who notified DOJ in Trump probe declined to do the same over Clinton emails   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/national-archives-official-notified-doj-trump-probe-declined-clinton-emails

WaPo: FBI searched Trump’s home to look for nuclear documents and other items, sources say
(If true, did Garland ask DJT to return the specific documents related to nuclear weapons? Why did the DoJ wait months to request or fetch documents related to nuclear weapons?)
https://chroniclet.com/news/312414/fbi-searched-trumps-home-in-part-to-look-for-nuclear-documents-sources-say/

@JudiciaryGOP: So, hours after Merrick Garland says that DOJ only speaks through its filings in court, they go out and leak this story to the Washington Post.

Terry Turchie, ex-deputy assistant director of the FBI, who led the Unabomber task force, told Jesse Waters last night that DoJ attorney Merrick Garland and his group would not authorize a search warrant on the Unabomber. AG Janet Reno eventually authorized the search warrant.
https://twitter.com/AKA_RealDirty/status/1557878044873949184

Due to the intense and escalating pressure over the Mar-a-Lago raid, the DoJ announced that AG Garland would make a statement at 14:30 ET. Garland was 32 minutes late for the reading of a statement that lasted less than 5 minutes. The beleaguered AG took no questions.

Garland, refuting ‘sourced reporting’ said, “I personally approved the decision to seek a search warrant in this matter.” The AG inferred that Trump was uncooperative. “It is standard practice to seek less intrusive means as an alternative to a search…”

Garland predictably but risibly asserted, “No one is above the law… faithful adherence to the rule of law is the bedrock principle of the Justice Department and of our democracy… Upholding the rule of law means applying the law fairly. Under my watch, that’s precisely what the Justice Department is doing.”

@JonathanTurley: Lara Trump just told Martha MacCallum that there was no communications with the FBI after they agreed to put the padlock on the storage unit after the June meeting. She confirmed that the information came from Trump counsel in the interview.

Trump claims FBI agents rummaged through Melania’s items and left her area ‘a mess’. DJT said he and his lawyers “were cooperating fully.” Statement:  https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1557833691006648326/photo/1

Turley stated on Fox News that someone is lying about DJT’s cooperation. Turley said Garland is fibbing about less intrusive means as an alternative. There were several remedies including a 2^nd subpoena and an official notice to Trump and his attorneys. The renowned law professor also stated that there was NO reason to send 40 FBI agents to descend on DJT’s home. Turley said it was naked intimidation.

Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: House R’s tell me Garland’s “admission” that he signed off on warrant created more questions than answers- did he actively direct it, or did he passively allow it to happen? Broadly, they also see Garland as political because he was Obama’s nominee for SCOTUS, he’s Biden’s AG, and they point to prior coordination between DOJ and WH over investigating parent protests as domestic terrorism re: CRT, it shows political influence at DOJ in the past.
    A federal law enforcement source tells me probable cause for search warrant ‘very likely’ came from a secret service member. (If true, it is an historic breach with terrible long-term consequences!)

Report Alleges FBI “Had Personal Stake” in Mar-a-Lago Raid – Agents Were After Spygate Documents Trump Was Holding That Likely Implicated FBI
     President Trump declassified a binder on January 19th, 2021 that contains hundreds of pages about the Crossfire Hurricane scandal. It contains damaging information about the corrupt actors involved with our government. Two different DOJ Attorney Generals have defied President Trump’s direct lawful order to publish the binder in the Federal Register…
    The DOJ had already made redactions to protect sources & methods, and returned the binder back to the White House. But the corrupt FBI also wanted to hide names. So, at the last minute, the DOJ demanded the binder comply with the 1974 Privacy Act… The DOJ knew this Act doesn’t apply to the White House, it was a stall tactic…  According to Paul Sperry, the FBI agents spent 9 hours looking for details President Trump took with him on the Crossfire Hurricane FBI spying scandal… (Now we know why the raid lasted 9 hours!)  Twitter has suspended journalist Paul Sperry after he made several tweets about this week’s FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence…  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/08/huge-development-report-shows-fbi-personal-stake-mar-lago-raid-agents-spygate-documents-trump-holding-likely-indicted-fbi/

Is the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago related to the Durham Investigation of Crossfire Hurricane; and are indictments coming? Regardless, the pressure on Durham to prosecute Deep State venality has soared.

Remember that the FBI admitted in May that legal representative of the DNC and Hillary Perkins, Coie has been operating an FBI workspace in their Washington, D.C. office since 2012.

Majority of Americans (59% to 39% not) concerned about Biden’s mental health: new poll
https://nypost.com/2022/08/11/majority-of-americans-concerned-about-bidens-mental-health-poll/

Eric Trump Says Security Cameras Captured FBI Acting Improperly During Raid
Alleging that investigators were accessing parts of former President Donald Trump’s Florida residence that they “shouldn’t have been.”…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/eric-trump-says-security-cameras-captured-fbi-acting-improperly-during-raid/ar-AA10wPBG

Trump got grand jury subpoena in spring, voluntarily cooperated before home was raided
Two months before his Florida home was raided by the FBI, President Donald Trump secretly received a grand jury subpoena for classified documents belonging to the National Archives, and voluntarily cooperated by turning over responsive evidence, surrendering security surveillance footage and allowing federal agents and a senior Justice Department lawyer to tour his private storage locker, according to a half dozen people familiar with the incident…
    Trump personally surprised the DOJ national security division prosecutor and three FBI agents who came to his Mar O Lago compound on June 3, greeting them as they came to pick up a small number of documents compliant with the subpoena…
    Trump signaled his full cooperation, telling the agents and prosecutor “look, whatever you need let us know,” according to two eyewitnesses…Five days later, DOJ officials sent a letter to Trump’s lawyers asking them to secure the storage locker with more than the lock they had seen. The Secret Service installed a more robust security lock to comply…
    After mid-June, the government had no other officials contacts with the president’s lawyers until they showed up unannounced on Monday and executed the search warrant, ousting the president’s lawyers and staff and spending nine hours collecting evidence. Sources told Just the News the raised collected about 12 boxes of evidence…
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-got-grand-jury-subpoena-spring-voluntarily-cooperated-home

Questions grow about Trump raid after revelation of grand jury subpoena, extensive cooperation
Jon Turley: “I mean, the idea that he was subject to a subpoena, complied with a subpoena, didn’t challenge it, voluntarily showed the storage room to the agents, followed their advice, secured it to meet their demands. All of that is hardly a basis for saying now we need to send in 40 FBI agents on a on a raid,” he added. “I mean, if the subpoena worked the first time, then presumably a second subpoena would work the second time if there were remaining documents.”…
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-got-grand-jury-subpoena-spring-voluntarily-cooperated-home

RINO Sen Tim Scott who initially called for calm about the FBI raid on Trump, reversed his position within 24 hours. The junior senator from South Carolina to Lindsey Graham, is political weathervane.

@MariaBartiromo: Sen. Tim Scott slams ‘weaponized’ DOJ: ‘Focus on the double standard of justice’  https://rumble.com/v1fm0nf-sen.-tim-scott-slams-weaponized-doj-focus-on-the-double-standard-of-justice.html

On Tuesday: Tim Scott on Mar-a-Lago search: We should ‘let it play out’
“I think we should really, as opposed to rushing to judgment, the most important thing that we can do is let it play out,” Scott said. “Because I have no idea what they were looking for, and I don’t think anybody knows what they were looking for.”…
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3594678-tim-scott-on-mar-a-lago-search-we-should-let-it-play-out/

@johncardillo: Chris Wray must be Trump’s wakeup call that despite his incredible strengths on policy and the economy, but for a few examples, his personnel and advisor radar is irreparably broken…

@ FBICincinnati: At approximately 9 AM this morning an armed subject attempted to breach the Visitor Screening Facility at FBI Cincinnati. After an alarm and a response by FBI special agents, the subject fled north onto Interstate 71.

Protestor at Trump Tower inveighs about Trump’s crimes. When asked to list them, can’t; blows gasket.
https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1557585747619844096

Joe, Hunter Biden staying for free at $20 million South Carolina mansion
The president recently asked prominent Democratic donor Maria Allwin — the widow of hedge fund founder James Allwin — if he could stay at her nine-bedroom Kiawah Island estate, a source close to the family told The Post…https://trib.al/v2V5u4i

NY Times staffer wanted to check with Schumer before running Sen. Tim Scott op-ed, Bari Weiss says  https://www.foxnews.com/media/ny-times-staffer-wanted-check-schumer-before-running-sen-tim-scott-op-ed-bari-weiss-says

Greg Hunter

Biden True Approval 12%, Trump Raid Backfire, Inflation Down Not Out

Biden True Approval 12%, Trump Raid Backfire, Inflation Down Not Out

By Greg Hunter On August 12, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups45 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 542 8.12.22)

If you really want to understand the crazy and desperate actions of the Biden/Obama Administration, you have to know the real numbers. Not the numbers of the latest poll that shows President Biden with a 40% approval rating. The real numbers that the public never gets to see, because it’s secret behind the scenes research, is Bidens true approval rating. Biden’s true approval numbers are somewhere between 11% and 12%, according to my confidential source and Martin Armstrong’s “Socrates” data mining computer. If Biden’s real approval rating is not more than 12%, you can see why the Democrat party is panicked and in deep trouble. They must do something to look stronger than they really are because they cannot even begin to cheat their way to victory in the midterms and beyond. 12% approval means most of the Democrats will not even vote for Biden or any other Democrats, and the economy is not going to give them or anyone else a reason to do so anytime soon.

The raid on the Florida home of President Donald Trump is backfiring bigtime on the Biden/Obama administration. His poll numbers have shot up even higher, and he’s breaking records for campaign donations when he’s not even announced he’s running—yet. This is just another fake made up case like the so-called “Russian Collusion” brought to you by fake FISA warrants, spying by the FBI and a fake dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton. The public see’s this tor the political attack it is and not a legit law enforcement action by a corrupt Deep State that includes RINO Republicans and commie Democrats.

Inflation backed off a bit this month and went down to 8.5% year over year. President Biden was so desperate for good economic news he spun this to mean 0% inflation month over month. Of course, this is preposterous and not the way inflation is counted even with the gimmicks to make it look better than it is. John Williams of Shadowstats.com says the real inflation as it was counted before all the gimmicks is around 17%. Gasoline prices have come down a bit, but they are going back up as the supply of gasoline is down to lows not seen since the early 1990’s. Enjoy the lower gas prices while they last. So, inflation is down a bit for now, but not out.

There is much more in the 53-minute newscast.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 8.12.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/biden-true-approval-12-trump-raid-backfire-inflation-down-not-out/)

After the Wrap-Up:

END

See you ON MONDAY

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