AUGUST 1//GOLD CLOSED UP $5.75 TO $1770.75//SILVER FINISHED UP 17 CENTS TO $20.38//PLATINUM WAS UP $8.10 TO $907.20//PALLADIUM WAS UP $16.65 TO $2196.75//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//ATLANTA FED SLASHES 3RD QUARTER GDP (THIS QUARTER WILL ALSO HEAD TOWARDS NEGATIVE)//PELOSI SET TO ARRIVE IN TAIWAN TUESDAY NIGHT//GRAINS/CORN COMMODITY REPORT BY DAVID DUBYNE: A MUST HEAR (THANKS TO KEVIN W. FOR THIS)//GORDON CHANG REPORTS ON CHINA, A MUST READ!/GAZPROM SUSPENDS GAS SHIPMENTS TO LATVIA/RHINE RIVER LEVELS EXTREMELY LOW FOR BARGES TO TRAVEL ON AND THAT UPSETS DELIVERY OF GOODS//ARGENTINA JOINS PANAMA AND SRI LANKA IN CHAOS AND FOOD SHORTAGES ETC//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1770.00 UP $5.75 

SILVER: $20.38 UP 17 CENTS 

ACCESS MARKET: 

GOLD $1772.30

SILVER: $20.35

Bitcoin morning price:  $23,159 DOWN 715

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $22,989. DOWN 885  

Platinum price: closing UP $8.105 to $907,29

Palladium price; closing up $16.65  at $2196.75

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,762.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/29/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 08/02/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 16 252
072 H GOLDMAN 660
104 C MIZUHO 198
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 84
167 C MAREX 166
190 H BMO CAPITAL 163
357 C WEDBUSH 11 2
365 C ED&F MAN CAPITA 6
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 58
523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 785
661 C JP MORGAN 1830
661 H JP MORGAN 25
685 C RJ OBRIEN 4
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 15 14
686 H STONEX FINANCIA 25
690 C ABN AMRO 45 51
709 C BARCLAYS 3815
709 H BARCLAYS 857
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 158 4
800 C MAREX SPEC 43 31
880 C CITIGROUP 159

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 07/29/2022 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 07/29/2022
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 21:04:55
880 H CITIGROUP 591
905 C ADM 77 56


TOTAL: 5,101 5,101
MONTH TO DATE: 21,935

JPMorgan stopped 1830/5101

_____________________________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  

5,101 NOTICES FOR 510,100 OZ //15.866 TONNES

total notices so far: 21,935 contracts for 2,193,500 oz (68.227 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES:  

10 NOTICES FILED FOR 50,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  679 :  for 3,395,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $5.75 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 17 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.657 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY  A GIGANTIC SIZED 4665  CONTRACTS TO 138,933   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  HUGE LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE   $0.30 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.30) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY COMMERCIAL SILVER LONGS// WE HAD HUGE  SPECULATOR LIQUIDATIONS AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 3366 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATIONS//HUGE BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A FAIR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP   / //  V)    GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(SPEC LIQUIDATION)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -50

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 1 day, total 1250  contracts:  6.250 million oz  OR 6.205 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1250 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 6.205 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 16 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 6.250 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4665 DESPITE OUR  $0.30 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1250 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER  ADDITIONS ////// HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT LIQUIDATION// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 3415 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 17.075 MILLION  OZ AS..THE SPECS WERE SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

 WE HAD 10  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  50,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 18,792 CONTRACTS  TO 466,876 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -36 CONTRACTS.

.

THE GIGANTIC SIZED  DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $12.50//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR SHORT SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION    //AND HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//HUGE ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 97.334 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE RISE IN PRICE OF   $12.50 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED LOSS OF 17,470  OI CONTRACTS 54.330 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED  1361  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 466,838

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,432 CONTRACTS  WITH 18,792 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1361 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,432 CONTRACTS OR 54.220 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1361) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (18,838): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  17,470 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS//STRONG BANKER ADDITIONS//  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST. AT 99.272 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP JUMP TO LONDON OF 61,100. (THESE OZ WILL EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY BACK TO THE COMEX AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED GOLD!!    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4)   GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST :

1361 CONTRACTS OR 136,100 OZ OR 378,43  TONNES 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1361 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 1  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 4.230 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  4.230/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.1183% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 4.230 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT., FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 4665 CONTRACT OI TO 138,933 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1250 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 1250  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1250 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 4616  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1250 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 3366   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16.830 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  RISE IN PRICE OF  $0.30

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

 SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.72 PTS OR 0219%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 433.17 OR 0.05%    /The Nikkei closed UP 191.71 OR % 0.69.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.56%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7531//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7652//    /Oil DOWN TO 96.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 102.28// SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.72 PTS OR 0.21%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 4..17 OR 0.05%    /The Nikkei closed UP 191.71 OR % 0.69.          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.56%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 18,838 CONTRACTS TO 466,838 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS GOOD  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE OF $12.50  IN GOLD PRICING  FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (4743 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1361 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC :1361 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1361 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED SIZED  TOTAL OF 17,432  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1361 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A MONSTER SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 18,792  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR STRONG SIZED  GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $ 12.50. . WE   ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS IS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AUGUST   (97.226),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:97.226 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $12.50) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS // COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO COVER TO THEIR POSITIONS//////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED LOSS  OF 54.330 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (97.226 TONNES)

WE HAD -38  CONTRACTS SUBTRACTED TO COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17,479 CONTRACTS OR  1,747,000  OZ OR 54.330 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 135,655/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  155,548 / poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR AUGUST ’22 COMEX GOLD //AUGUST 1

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz90,525.357oz
Brinks
JPMorgan
HSBC
Manfra
Malca





1600 kilobars
(HSBC)
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz384.485 oz
Brinks
No of oz served (contracts) today5101   notice(s)
510,100 OZ
15.866 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)9335 contracts 
933,500 oz
29.035 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month21.935 notices
2,193,5000 OZ
68.227TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0 

total deposits: 0 oz

5 customer withdrawals:

i) out of Brinks:  897,578 oz 

ii) out of JPMorgan:  18,624.714 oz 

iv)out of Manfra:  16,378.859oz  

v) Out of Malca: 51,441.600oz (1600 kilobars

total withdrawal:  90,525.357 oz (2.81 tonnes)

Adjustments:  customer to dealer: JPMorgan  20,002.02 oa

customer to dealer HSBC: 160,164,621 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.

For the front month of AUGUST we have an  oi of 14,436 contracts having LOST  17,446 contracts .

We had 16,834 notices served upon Friday so we lost 612 contracts as these guys were EFP’d to London where they will turn around and

take gold from the Comex at T + 2.

Sept. lost 72 contracts to 3910 contracts.

October gained 1094 contracts up to 38,994 

We had 5101 notice(s) filed today for 510100 oz FOR THE AUGUST 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 5,101 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  5101 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,935) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (AUGUST 14,436  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 5,101 x 100 oz per contract equals 3,127,000 OZ  OR 97.226 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of AUGUST. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:

No of notices filed so far (21,935) x 100 oz+   (14,436)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (5101} x 100 oz} which equals 3,127,000 oz standing OR 97.226 TONNES in this   active delivery month of August.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  97.334 TONNES  (A HUGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (   ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,320,459.814oz   72,17 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  30,242,260.137 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 15,264,125,089  OZ (474.77 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 14,978,135.048 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 12,943.666.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 402.6 tonnes 

END

COT report from Dave Kranzler showing the massive speculator shorts

image.png

SILVER/COMEX/AUGUST 1

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory529,935.085  oz

Brinks
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory544,966.16 oz

JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)100 CONTRACT(S)
500,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)10 contracts 
(510,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)679 contracts
 3,395,,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  0    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 544,966.16 oz

total deposit:  544,966.16   oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 175.113 million oz/336.773 million =52.00% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals:2

i) Out of Brinks 424,961.570 oz

ii) out of CNT:  100,973.515 0z

total: 529,935.085  oz

 adjustments: 2// customer to dealer

CNT  4969.25 oz

and

HSBC  5152.610 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 55.462 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 336.773 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST OI: 110 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 661 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 669 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY

SO WE GAINED 8 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 40,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.  THE AMOUNT STANDING

WILL NOW INCREASE ON A DAILY BASIS AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET FOR BADLY NEEDED SILVER.

SEPTEMBER HAD A LOSS OF 4405 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 105,158

 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 10 for  50,000 oz

Comex volumes:58,285// est. volume today//   fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 69,100 contracts (  good )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 679 x 5,000 oz = 3,395,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(110) and the number of notices served upon today 10  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST./2022 contract month: 679 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST (110)  – number of notices served upon today (10) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates 3,895,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.75: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP $12.50; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $31.25; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 27.//WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.29 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $17.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 21/WITH GOLD UP $11.40: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.101 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $.35 :BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.22 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.06 TONNES

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.28 TONNES

JULY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.89 TONNES//

JULY 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.79 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $10.55:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.53TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.27 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.35: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1024.43 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT  THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1032.04 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES 

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1005.87 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 461,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.657 MILLION OZ/

JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP $1.24 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118 MILLION OZ/

JULY 27/.WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL 11.479 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.118MILLION OZ//

JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.504 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.597 MILLION OZ//

JULY 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.383 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.101 MILLION OZ//

JULY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484 MILLION OZ//

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 500.484MILLION OZ/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.253 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.585 MILLION OZ//

JULY 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION OZ//

JULY 18/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 4.995 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 515.838 MILLION  OZ.

JULY 15/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.226 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.443 MILLIONOZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.671 MILLION OZ

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ.

JULY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.228 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.501 MILLION OZ//

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.533 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.729 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.889 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 523.262 MILLION OZ/

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 483.657 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

A must view

see blow

Major gold and silver ETFs are used for price suppression, Maguire reiterates

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-07-30 11:51Section: Daily Dispatches

11:50a ET Saturday, July 30, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his new interview with Shane Morand for Kinesis Money, London gold trader Andrew Maguire reminds investors that the major gold and silver exchange-traded funds, GLD and SLV, are mechanisms of the suppression of monetary metals prices.

Maguire also praises the research of GATA consultant Robert Lambourne showing that the Bank for International Settlements is steadily reducing its gold swap positions with bullion banks, indicating that gold price suppression will be getting more difficult.

Maguire’s interview is 47 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Russia plundered Sudan’s gold (one tonne) to boost the war effort in Ukraine

(CNN/GATA)

Russia is plundering Sudan’s gold to boost war effort in Ukraine

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-07-29 21:28Section: Daily Dispatches

By Nima Elbagir, Barbara Arvanitidis, Tamara Qiblawi, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Mohammed Abo Al Gheit, and Darya Tarasova

Video by Alex Platt and Mark Baron

Graphics by Sarah-Grace Mankarious, Marco Chacón, Natalie Croker, and Henrik Pettersson

CNN, Atlanta
Friday, July 29, 2022

KHARTOUM, Sudan — Days after Moscow launched its bloody war on Ukraine, a Russian cargo plane stood on a Khartoum runway, a strip of tarmac surrounded by red-orange sand. The aircraft’s manifest stated it was loaded with cookies. 

Sudan rarely, if ever, exports cookies.

A heated debate transpired between officials in a back office of Khartoum International Airport. They feared that inspecting the plane would vex the country’s increasingly pro-Russian military leadership. Multiple previous attempts to intercept suspicious Russian carriers had been stopped. 

Ultimately, however, the officials decided to board the plane.

Inside the hold, colorful boxes of cookies stretched out before them. Hidden just beneath were wooden crates of Sudan’s most precious resource. Gold. Roughly one ton of it.

This incident in February — recounted by multiple official Sudanese sources to CNN — is one of at least 16 known Russian gold smuggling flights out of Sudan, Africa’s third largest producer of the precious metal, over the last year and a half. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/29/africa/sudan-russia-gold-investigation-cmd-intl/index.html

end

This is a must read

Huge profits generated by the crooks, JPMorgan.

Spence/Farchy

(Bloomberg/GATA)

From profits to pay, JPMorgan’s gold secrets spill out in court

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-07-31 18:41Section: Daily Dispatches

As of 2010, the bank vaulted gold for at least 10 central banks, court documents showed.

* * *

By Eddie Spence and Jack Farchy
Bloomberg News
Sunday, July 31, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-31/from-profits-to-pay-j…

The trial of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s former head of precious metals has offered unprecedented insights into the trading desk that dominates the global gold market.

Michael Nowak, who ran precious metals trading at JPMorgan for over a decade, is being tried in Chicago along with colleagues Gregg Smith and Jeffrey Ruffo for conspiring to manipulate gold and silver markets. The focus now is on the jury, which began deliberations late Friday, but the proceedings have already shone a new light on the inner workings of the business, from its profitability and market share to its largest clients.

The court was shown internal figures detailing the bank’s annual profits from precious metals, the first time such detailed information has ever been made public. JPMorgan’s earnings reports don’t break out the results from the precious metals desk, or even its broader commodities unit. A spokesperson declined to comment on the disclosures in the trial.

In summary: the business is a consistent moneymaker for JPMorgan, notching up annual profits between $109 million and $234 million a year between 2008 and 2018. The lion’s share of that comes from trading in financial markets, but the bank does plenty of physical business as well. Trading and transporting physical precious metals makes the bank about $30 million a year on average.

Still, the profits disclosed in the trial have been overshadowed more recently: in 2020, JPMorgan made $1 billion in precious metals as the pandemic created unprecedented arbitrage opportunities, according to people familiar with the matter

JPMorgan holds tens of billions of dollars in gold in vaults in London, New York and Singapore. It is one of four clearing members of the London market, where global gold prices are set by buying and selling metal held in a few London vaults — including JPMorgan’s and the Bank of England’s.

JPMorgan is the biggest player among a small group of “bullion banks” that dominate the precious metals markets, and internal documents presented by prosecutors provided a glimpse of just how dominant a role the bank has played. 

In 2010, for example, 40% of all transactions in the gold market were cleared by JPMorgan. 

JPMorgan’s top precious metals employees on the desk were remunerated handsomely, and some jurors audibly gasped when the court was told how much the defendants had earned. 

Ruffo, the bank’s hedge fund salesman, was paid $10.5 million from 2008 to 2016. Smith, the top gold trader, got $9.9 million. Nowak, their boss, made the most of all: $23.7 million over the same period.

Their pay was linked to the profits they made for the bank. FBI agent Marc Troiano, citing internal JPMorgan data, told the court that the total profit allocated to Ruffo from 2008 to 2016 was $70.3 million. Smith generated about $117 million over the same period, while Nowak made the bank $186 million, including $44 million in 2016.

Hedge funds like Moore Capital, Tudor Investment Corp and George Soros’s eponymous firm were some of the desk’s most important clients. Getting access to those clients was the main reason for retaining Ruffo after the bank’s acquisition of Bear Stearns, according to ex-trader Christian Trunz, who testified against his former bosses and referred to Ruffo as the best salesman on Wall Street. Being a top client of JPMorgan came with perks: employees at the funds could be provided with free tickets to the US Open, according to messages involving Nowak shown during the trial.

Another set of important clients were central banks, which trade gold for their reserves and are among the biggest players in the bullion market. At least 10 central banks held their metal in vaults run by JPMorgan in 2010, according to documents disclosed in court. 

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

Andrew Maguire from the vault:

https://kinesis.money/live-from-the-vault/

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: WHEAT//GRAINS/DIESEL

looming CBOT grain issues and defaults thereof

Inbox

Kevin Wallien1:11 PM (48 minutes ago)
to me

Harvey promise you are going to have a “oh man” moment if you listen to this starting at 34 -40 min mark. Worth passing on for those.

Very important info just heard regarding futures market failure starting in Sept. ? It looks so clear that I can’t believe I did not put the dots together. He speaks to looming CBOT grain issues and why and that will segway into the collapse we all know is coming.

re the above tape:

 

The Producers aka Cargill the “robber baron” are heavily short in corn and beans. Swappers and every other category all long. 

This is a perfect set-up for casting so much attention on blaming Russia on food shortages and even higher prices finally hitting home in US. Markets tanking and banking failures blamed WITHOUT QUESTION on Russia. 

Hungry people get angry and scared. 

“Increased central planning to the rescue with CBDC.”

Kevin 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

For your enjoyment

Simon Black

A 1,000+ Year Old Idea Is The Latest Crypto Trend

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In the year 1120, a French noble named Hugh of Payns took up residence in a former mosque on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem with his brotherhood of knights.

The palace was a gift from King Baldwin II, who ruled the Kingdom of Jerusalem, carved from lands conquered by the Catholics in the First Crusade two decades earlier.

Hugh of Payns’ brotherhood would become an elite force of warrior monks sworn to defend the Holy Land. And because their first headquarters was referred to as the Temple of Solomon, they became known as the Knights Templar.

Expanding throughout Europe and the Middle East, the Knights Templar’s castles and convents became known for impenetrable security. Along with the order’s reputation for honesty accountability, this made these fortresses the perfect place to house valuables such as important documents, jewels, and gold.

By 1150, a Second Crusade was underway, and Catholic knights were swarming into the Holy Land to fight the Seljuk Turks.

Wars are expensive, and the crusaders needed to bring the wealth to fund their campaigns.

But that posed a problem. The journey to the Jerusalem was long and uncertain, and carrying vast treasures made crusaders a target of thieves.

So the Knights Templar created a solution. Crusaders could deposit their gold in a Templar castle near home, and receive a letter of credit. This letter of credit was good to withdraw the same amount of gold at any other Templar branch.

And to secure their letters of credit against forgery, the Knights Templar developed a coded writing which could only be deciphered by other Knights Templar.

These encrypted, gold-backed letters of credit were essentially a very early form of gold tokenization.

Today there are more than 100 gold-backed digital tokens in the marketplace… though the cryptography used to encrypt the tokens is somewhat more complex than what the Knights Templar used.

But the idea is basically the same— each token distributed represents a set amount of gold held in a vault.

It’s worth asking the question— why not just own physical gold?

Owning gold can certainly make a lot of sense. Physical gold has long been an excellent hedge against major systemic risks. And, more relevant to today’s market environment, gold is heavily undercorrelated to other major asset classes.

In other words, there’s very little correlation between the price of gold and, say, the performance of the US stock market. Or the bond market. Or even the entire US economy.

This makes gold an excellent way to diversify an investment portfolio, especially in a time when there’s so much uncertainty in the market.

Owning physical gold, i.e. actual bars and coins that you can hold in your hand, instead of an ETF or mutual fund, means that you can access your gold whenever you need it.

And if you store it at home, you become your own custodian. There’s no banker, broker, or any other middle man standing between you and your assets. And this is a pretty powerful feeling.

You could also choose to store gold in a private, secure vault. And there are several companies (including prominent security companies) who will gladly charge you a fee in exchange for safeguarding your gold.

This is a great way to have peace of mind about the safety and security of your gold. And if you select a storage facility that’s outside of your home country, you’ll receive some asset protection benefit as well.

But handing your gold over to another company does introduce some counterparty risk; unlike storing gold in your home, using a secure storage company means that there is someone standing between you and your asset. So obviously there needs to be a lot of trust and transparency for that relationship to work.

Similarly, you can also choose to own gold through various financial instruments, like ETFs or futures contracts. But these instruments mean that there is a broker or banker involved. YOU don’t actually own the asset. They do. And that relationship also requires a great deal of trust to work.

Adding ‘tokenization’ to gold ownership adds even more layers of complexity and risk.

First, you have to trust that the organization issuing the tokens actually has the physical gold to back it up.

(We’ve seen this trust violated recently with some stablecoins that were supposedly backed by US dollars… and then it turned out they didn’t have as many US dollars as promised.)

Second, you need to have the confidence that someone else is willing and able to accept your tokens, and to exchange your tokens for real gold when the time comes to redeem it.

Then there are risks associated with the token itself.

For example, was the code properly designed? Are there any security holes that can be exploited by hackers? Can the underlying distributed ledger technology (like blockchain) be compromised? Will a securities regulator like the SEC ban the token, or deem it a ‘financial security’ subject to a laundry list of regulations? Will there be crazy tax implications?

As you can see, the further away you get from being your own custodian, the more risks and complexities are introduced.

Of course there are gold-backed tokens which have been audited to show that the gold backing them really does exist. And there are tokens with an open-source code which can be verified and tested.

But it’s also worth asking— do you even need tokenized gold?

The Knights Templar came up with their proto-tokenization idea more than 1,000 years ago to solve a very specific need: eliminating the need for Crusaders to transport large amounts of gold.

Similarly, today’s gold tokens also solve a specific need. They make it easier for people to transact with one another, in gold.

But hardly anyone transacts with one another in gold. Or crypto for that matter. Few people buy their groceries with an English sovereign gold coin, or with Bitcoin.

But just like the Knights Templar’s encrypted letters, gold tokens make it very easy to transport gold across borders. (There’s also some great privacy and asset protection benefits as well).

Let’s say you are moving overseas and want to bring your physical gold with you. Most certainly you wouldn’t want to pack a kilo of gold, about 32 troy ounces, in your carry-on.

To carry about $55,000 worth of gold is risky— you could be robbed, misplace your bag, or run into trouble with customs officials.

You could ship gold through a company like Brinks or Via Mat. But shipping rates are outrageous, and the insurance is also expensive.

On the other hand, you could deposit your kilo of gold in a vault in Texas, receive gold-backed tokens, and redeem the tokens in Europe for the same amount of physical gold.

There are a few tokens that do this.

For example, the same company that issues the stablecoin Tether (which is pegged to the US dollar) also issues Tether Gold. And each Tether Gold token is pegged to one troy ounce of gold.

Tether Gold can be redeemed for physical gold, but there are restrictions. First, the minimum purchase amount is 50 tokens, i.e. 50 troy ounces. That’s nearly $100,000. And you might need to redeem 430 troy ounces in order to exchange your tokens for gold— nearly $750,000.

The biggest restriction, according to the project’s website, is that you need to take physical delivery in Switzerland.

Another project called CACHE Gold Tokens (CGT) pegs its tokens to one gram of gold. This is more convenient since a gram is so much smaller than a troy ounce.

The CACHE tokens can be redeemed for physical gold at three vault locations— in Dallas, Switzerland, and Singapore.

The company is looking to add more locations; a network which could prove to be a useful alternative to physical gold transportation across oceans and borders.

It’s definitely worth knowing more about gold tokens— there are certainly downsides, like the additional counterparty risk. But there’s plenty of upside as well, including privacy and asset protection benefits.

*  *  *

Recently we sent our premium subscribers some great research about gold-backed tokens, and if you’re a member I’d encourage you to go back and read that report. If you’re not currently a member, you can obtain access to that report, along with our full library of research for your Plan B, by joining Sovereign Man: Confidential today.

end

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7531

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7652

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 4.3305 PTS OR  0.05%

2. Nikkei closed UP 191.71 OR 0.69%

3. Europe stocks   CLOSED ALL GREEN 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  105,42/Euro RISES TO 1.0238

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.180/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 132.39/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +0.819%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.05% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.89%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 2,921//

3j Gold at $1771.95 silver at: 20.40  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 4/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.66

3m oil into the 96 dollar handle for WTI and  102 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 132.39DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9496– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9725well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.656  UP 2  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.021  UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.93

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures, Oil Fall As Searing Rally Wobbles

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 07:56 AM

While European and Asian stocks have extended the blistering July rally to start August, US futures remain have traded in the red in the overnight session, if only modestly, which is to be expected after the best month for US markets since November 2020. Contracts on both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 were lower by about 0.1%, alongside a drop in oil, the dollar and crypto, as investors assessed recession risks against the latest remarks from Neel Kashkari over the weekend and Bill Dudley this morning that higher interest rates are needed to bring inflation under control. The Stoxx 600 Index rose 0.2%, led by banks, as HSBC Holdings Plc posted better-than-estimated profits. 10Y yields dipped to 2.64%.

Oil declined after poor Chinese economic data added to concerns that a global slowdown may sap demand. West Texas Intermediate dropped below $97 a barrel after sinking almost 7% in July in the first back-to-back monthly loss since late 2020.

In thin premarket trading, bank stocks were lower as investors remain on edge over recession risks. In corporate news, Global Payments agreed to buy Evo Payments for $34 per share in cash. Meanwhile, HSBC delivered better-than-estimated profits and pledged to return to paying quarterly dividends next year as it seeks to head off a call by its largest shareholder to split up. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:

  • Siga Technologies (SIGA US) shares are set to rebound on Monday after the stock sank in the previous session following an FDA update on monkeypox. Shares of other companies making vaccines and antiviral products tied to the disease were also higher in premarket trading.
  • Mobile Global Esports (MGAM US) shares surge as much as 76%, set for another day of gains, following the esports platform’s initial public offering on Friday when it jumped 180%.
  • Cryptocurrency-linked stocks fall as Bitcoin slips following its best month since October 2021, with traders assessing the strength of a recovery from the market’s worst levels. Coinbase (COIN US) down 2%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) falls 4.2%.
  • Comcast (CMCSA US) and Charter Communications (CHTR US) both downgraded at Barclays which said it sees the cable companies as “likely past peak growth.” Comcast shares down 0.1%.
  • Bumble (BMBL US) is cut to hold at Jefferies, with the broker citing incremental FX headwinds and a valuation that is not “compelling.”
  • PubMatic (PUBM US) and Taboola (TBLA US) both cut to sector weight at KeyBanc as the broker anticipates “disparate” 2Q results from the adtech sector. Prefers overweight-rated TradeDesk (TTD US).

Traders have been speculating the Federal Reserve will tone down its anti-inflation campaign and opt for a slower path of rate hikes after data showed the US economy shrank a second quarter. While that sentiment drove July’s market turnaround after historic first-half losses, over the weekend some Fed officials – such as Kashkari and Dudley – sought to reinforce the message that higher rates are needed to stamp out price pressures and downplayed recession risks.

“The fact that a very weak run of data is seen as equity bullish just purely on the basis of lower rates speaks to just how utterly dominant Fed policy has become in driving investor behavior,” said James Athey, investment director at abrdn. “Unless the Fed pulls off a miracle I am afraid the bear market is absolutely not over.”

Investors are also monitoring US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Asia. A statement from her office skipped any mention of a possible stopover in Taiwan. A visit may stoke US-China tension over the island. Here are a handful of related headlines:

  • US House Speaker Pelosi’s official itinerary for her trip to Asia was released which did not mention Taiwan, while Radio France Internationale’s Chinese website quoted sources that stated Pelosi will fly to Taiwan via Clark Air Base in the Philippines on August 4th, according to Dimsum Daily HK.
  • China held live-fire drills off the coast opposite Taiwan and its air force said it will resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity regarding Taiwan, according to Associated Press and Chinese state media.
  • A senior official in Beijing said the atmosphere of last week’s Biden-Xi telephone conversation was the worst among the five talks between the leaders and President Xi was said to have showed the toughest attitude he has ever shown to any world leader, while the most important topic in the conversation was China-US relations especially the ‘Taiwan Question’. Furthermore, the official believes the probability of US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is low, as President Xi’s tough position on Taiwan will push President Biden to put more pressure on Pelosi to bypass Taiwan on this trip and the official warned that an accidental military conflict around the island of Taiwan cannot be ruled out if Pelosi insists on visiting Taiwan, according to SGH Macro Advisors.

European stocks climb as earnings continue to buoy risk sentiment, while US futures slide, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 0.4%. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.3%. FTSE MIB outperforms peers, adding 0.9%, Stoxx 600 lags, adding 0.2%. Banks, telecoms and autos are the strongest-performing sectors. Here are the other notable European movers:

  • HSBC jumps as much as 7%, the most since January 2021, after the lender reported interim results. Analysts were impressed with second-quarter pretax profit coming in ahead of consensus.
  • Pearson shares rise as much as 10% after first-half sales beat analyst estimates, with weakness in the higher education segment more than offset by strong growth in other divisions.
  • EssilorLuxottica shares climb as much as 4.2% after CEO Francesco Milleri told Les Echos he’s bullish about the eyewear giant’s outlook. Analysts also are positive about its prospects.
  • Deutsche Telekom shares rise after Kepler Cheuvreux re-initiated coverage with buy, saying its free cash flow yield is set to rise to over 13% by 2024 from about 8% in 2022.
  • Air- France KLM shares gain as much as 6.1% after being upgraded to buy at HSBC and to outperform at Oddo BHF, with the latter noting that the effects of the airline’s restructuring seem to be underestimated.
  • Quilter shares gain as much as 18% amid a report that NatWest is considering a bid for the wealth management firm. The article said several other private equity firms are also considering an offer.
  • Spectris drops as much as 8.2%, the most since Feb. 28, after the precision instrumentation and controls supplier reported half-year results. Jefferies said the interims were a “touch light.”
  • Heineken shares fall as much as 3.5% after the company reported strong 1H results, with investors focusing on the cautious outlook and tweaked 2023 guidance.
  • Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden shares plunged after a fresh sell rating by Goldman Sachs, which downgraded the landlord, saying it’s overleveraged as financing costs continue to surge.
  • Varta fell the most since November 2021 after the German battery maker cut its full-year forecast for sales and earnings over headwinds including rising raw materials and energy costs.
  • CEZ shares fell the most in a month as investors in the Czech power utility digested mounting signals that the government was ready to impose a windfall tax on the most profitable companies.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as investors bet corporate earnings will support market valuations and as weak economic data from China spurred hopes for more stimulus.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.8% with Toyota boosting the measure the most ahead of its earnings release later this week. Industrials led gains among the sectoral gauges as Mitsubishi jumped ahead of its quarterly report. Benchmarks in Japan, Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand outperformed.  Hong Kong and mainland China indexes reversed their earlier losses, buoyed by prospects that weak factory data increases the likelihood of fresh policy support from Beijing.

China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted in July while property sales continued to shrink, data over the weekend showed. Some investors said the weak figures have already been priced into last month’s losses in Chinese markets.  “Expecting more stimulus is reasonable, although the market feels the GDP target is no longer a hard target,” said Steven Leung, an executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. “Weak economy means more policies needed to achieve their target, or get closer to their target.” Asian stocks have been on a downtrend despite Monday’s pending gain, with the regional benchmark down almost 30% from its February 2021 high. The gauge has underperformed US peers so far this year as Covid woes continue in China, along with the nation’s property crisis, while ongoing earnings reports in the region are being closely watched. 

Japanese equities erased earlier losses to end higher as better-than-expected domestic corporate earnings boosted sentiment. The Topix Index rose 1% to 1,960.11 as of the close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.7% to 27,993.35. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index’s gain, increasing 3.5%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,706 rose and 395 fell, while 69 were unchanged. Earnings are “fairly good,” said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist and fund manager at T&D Asset Management. “The numbers coming out are clearly positive compared to the previous quarter especially in terms of profit growth.”

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 6,993.00, the highest since June 9, boosted by gains across mining, healthcare and energy shares. A subgauge of miners climbed for a third session, closing the highest since June 29. Investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision due Tuesday, with it expected to lift the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.85%.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.3% to 11,525.87

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down about 0.4%; NOK and CAD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and JPY outperform. Yen trades at 132.33/USD. The yen climbed as much as 1% against the greenback to 131.89, rising a fourth day in its longest-winning streak since February. While the gains were initially spurred by signs the Federal Reserve will rein back rate hikes, an Asia-based FX trader said Monday that the yen is increasingly seen as a haven play. The euro edged up 0.4%, bolstered by dollar weakness; Goldman Sachs strategists have revised down their three- and six-month forecasts for EUR/USD to 0.99 and 1.02 (from 1.05 and 1.10 previously), citing the shifting European growth outlook.

In rates, Treasuries bear-flatten, with the 10-year rate at 2.64%, well down from June’s peak near 3.50%, after hawkish comments from Kashkari and Bostic. Bund 10-year yields rose about 5 bps, after German and Euro Area PMIs were revised higher, while the yield on 10-year gilts climbs about 4 bps to 1.91%. Italian bonds rallied, sending the 10-year yield below 3% for the first time since May, as investors bet that a new government will stick to commitments needed to unlock about 200 billion euros ($205 billion) of European Union funds.

In commodities, WTI drifted 2.2% lower to trade at around $96. Base metals are mixed; LME aluminum falls 1.8% while LME nickel gains 4.4%. Spot gold is little changed at $1,766/oz.  Bitcoin declined after reaching the highest levels since mid-June on Saturday amid optimism that the market may have recovered from its worst levels.

Looking at today’s calendar, we get the July ISM index and June Construction Spending data, Japan July vehicle sales, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Italy July PMI, budget balance, new car registrations, June unemployment rate. We also get earnings from Devon Energy, Activision Blizzard.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,123.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 439.12
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 161.54
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 523.50
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,993.35
  • Topix up 1.0% to 1,960.11
  • Hang Seng Index little changed at 20,165.84
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,259.96
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 58,043.18
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,992.97
  • Kospi little changed at 2,452.25
  • Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,766.44
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.26% to 105.63
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.87%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0241
  • Brent Futures down 1.2% to $102.77/bbl

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • European stocks climb as earnings continue to buoy risk sentiment, while US futures slide, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 0.3%. Stoxx 600 rises 0.1% with banks, telecoms and autos the strongest-performing sectors. In fixed income, Bund 10-year yield rises about 5 bps, after German and Euro Area PMIs were revised higher, while the yield on 10-year gilts climbs about 4 bps to 1.91%. Italian bonds hold gains, with the 10-year yield falling below 3% for the first time since May.
  • European factory activity plunged and Asian manufacturing output continued to weaken in July amid lingering supply-chain complications and a slowing global economy.
  • Natural gas prices in Europe rose, after posting the biggest weekly gain in more than a month, as Russia’s tightening grip over supply rips through the economy and heightens concerns about shortages in the winter.
  • The US Treasury is expected to make its fourth straight reduction in a quarterly sale of longer-term debt this month, with most dealers predicting extra cutbacks for the 20-year bond.
  • China’s massive trade surplus helped to offset capital outflows in the first half of the year, anchoring its balance of payments even as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes fuel outflows from developed and emerging markets alike.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were choppy as momentum from last week’s earnings-inspired euphoria on Wall St was partially offset by disappointing Chinese PMI data and cautiousness ahead of upcoming risk events including central bank rate decisions, NFP jobs data and US House Speaker Pelosi’s trip to Asia. ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in energy and utilities after the competition regulator’s interim gas report forecast Australia’s east coast could face a shortfall of 56PJ in 2023, while the latest domestic manufacturing PMI data remained in expansion territory. Nikkei 225 was also positive with the biggest movers driven by recent earnings releases and reports also noted that Japan’s panel is expected to seek a record increase of at least JPY 30 to minimum wages. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially pressured after Chinese PMI data missed expectations in which the official manufacturing reading printed at a surprise contraction, with sentiment also not helped by US-China tensions as the world second-guesses whether or not US House Speaker Pelosi will defy China’s warnings regarding visiting Taiwan during her Asia trip. However, the mood in Chinese stocks gradually improved and retraced the majority of losses.

Top Asian News

  • US House Speaker Pelosi’s official itinerary for her trip to Asia was released which did not mention Taiwan, while Radio France Internationale’s Chinese website quoted sources that stated Pelosi will fly to Taiwan via Clark Air Base in the Philippines on August 4th, according to Dimsum Daily HK.
  • China held live-fire drills off the coast opposite Taiwan and its air force said it will resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity regarding Taiwan, according to Associated Press and Chinese state media.
  • A senior official in Beijing said the atmosphere of last week’s Biden-Xi telephone conversation was the worst among the five talks between the leaders and President Xi was said to have showed the toughest attitude he has ever shown to any world leader, while the most important topic in the conversation was China-US relations especially the ‘Taiwan Question’. Furthermore, the official believes the probability of US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is low, as President Xi’s tough position on Taiwan will push President Biden to put more pressure on Pelosi to bypass Taiwan on this trip and the official warned that an accidental military conflict around the island of Taiwan cannot be ruled out if Pelosi insists on visiting Taiwan, according to SGH Macro Advisors.
  • Macau is to permit dine-in services and will reopen gyms, bars and beauty parlours beginning this Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.
  • US, South Korea and Japan will begin joint ballistic missile defence exercises in waters off Hawaii this week, according to Yonhap.
  • “China is willing to boost China-New Zealand comprehensive strategic partnership to yield more results based on the principle of mutual respect and mutual benefit while appropriately handling differences,” according to the Chinese Foreign Minister via Global Times.

European bourses remain firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, as the region shrugs-off Final Manufacturing PMIs and a mixed APAC handover given Friday’s strong Wall St. performance. However, US futures are underpressure in a continuation of downbeat APAC trade amid poor Chinese PMIs and with multiple key risk events looming for the week, ES -0.2%. In Europe, sectors are mixed with the breadth of performance narrow ex-banks given pronounced upside in HSBC, +6.0%, post-earnings; note, HSBC accounts for 18% of the Europe Stoxx 600 Banking sector.

Top European News

  • HSBC Shares Jump After Profit Rise and Vow to Restore Dividends
  • Ukraine Latest: First Grain Ship Since Start of War Leaves Odesa
  • Marex Agrees to Buy ED&F Man Brokerage in Global Expansion
  • Italy 10-Year Yield Falls Below 3% for the First Time Since May
  • Quilter Gains; Potential NatWest Deal Has Clear Logic: Investec
  • Vinci Agrees Deal for 30% Stake in Mexico Airport Operator OMA

FX

  • DXY down to deeper cycle low sub-105.500 as Yen revival continues and activity currencies climb, USD/JPY retesting underlying bids and support into 132.00 including next layer of Japanese importer buying interest.
  • Aussie up in anticipation of RBA and Kiwi ahead of NZ jobs data, AUD/NZD and NZD/USD firmly back above 0.7000 and 0.6300 respectively.
  • Euro eyes recent peaks and Sterling probes stops around last Friday’s high, EUR/USD touches 1.0270 and Cable tops 1.2250 .
  • Yuan softer in wake of weaker than expected Chinese PMIs, but Rand remains bid irrespective of inflation contractionary SA PMI as Gold underpins, USD/CNH and USD/CNY 6.7600+ and 6.7500+, USD/ZAR under 16.5000.

Fixed Income

  • Debt continues to consolidate and retrace from new corrective peaks, but curves remain steeper.
  • Bunds and Gilts sub-par within 157.74-156.74 and 118.22-117.72 respective ranges, T-notes flattish between 121-07+/120-28 parameters.
  • BTPs bid and sharply outperform ahead of Italy’s snap elections and into month bereft of issuance.
  • 10 year bond tops 127.50 from 126.40 low just 7 ticks above prior close.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are pressured in a resumption of Friday’s action after modest overnight consolidation as the complex looks towards OPEC+.
  • Currently, benchmarks are firmer by over USD 1.50/bbl; while Dutch TTF remains around the EUR 200/MWh mark as Russia put the onus on others re. Nord Stream 1.
  • Spot gold is firmer, deriving upside from the pressure seen in the USD though the magnitude of the yellow metal’s move perhaps capped by the generally constructive European tone.
  • OPEC Secretary General Al-Ghais said OPEC is not in competition with Russia and that Russia is a big main player in the world energy map with its membership in OPEC+ vital for the success of the agreement. Al-Ghais added OPEC doesn’t control oil prices but practices tuning markets in terms of supply and demand, while he added that the recent rise in prices is not just related to the Ukraine crisis but is also due to lack of spare production capacity. Furthermore, he said the current state of the global oil market is very volatile and that the most important factor to affect oil prices by year-end is the lack of investments in the sector, according to an interview with Al Rai newspaper cited by Reuters.
  • Libya’s Unity government oil minister said oil production is at 1.2mln bpd, according to Reuters.
  • Gazprom said it is halting gas supplies to Latvia and accused it of violating conditions, while Latvia said that it doesn’t expect Gazprom’s decision to have any major impact, according to Reuters.
  • European governments have eased back on efforts to curb trade in Russian oil in which they are delaying a plan to shut Moscow out of the vital Lloyd’s of London maritime insurance market and will permit some international shipments amid fears of rising crude prices and tighter global energy supplies, according to FT.
  • The first ship with grain left the port of Odessa, according to CNN Türk; subsequently, Ukrainian Infrastructure minister says if the grain deal works in full, they will start consultations to open the port of Mykolaiv, via Reuters.
  • Part of the damaged Beirut port silos collapsed following a weeks-long fire, according to Al Jazeera

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00: June Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
  • 10:00: July ISM Manufacturing, est. 52.0, prior 53.0
    • Employment, est. 48.2, prior 47.3
    • New Orders, est. 49.0, prior 49.2
    • Prices Paid, est. 73.5, prior 78.5

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The 2023 global II survey opens in 11 months’ time. If you are likely to value our work in the next year please …… ah ok, I did promise not to mention it again. Thanks for all the support and we’ll see how we do in October or November when the results drop. Talking of results, congratulations to the England women’s football team for winning the Euros. After years of watching the men’s team lose time and time again in important moments it was strange watching them win, especially against Germany. First second place in the Eurovision Song Contest and now this. The world order is being turned upside down!

Anyway, welcome to August and a spectacular start to H2 for markets with the S&P 500 in July (+9.1%) seeing its best month since November 2020 and 10yr US Treasuries (-37bps and +1.7%) seeing their best performance since March 2020. This follows the worst H1 since 1962 and 1788 respectively. A stunning comeback for 60/40, 50/50 or whatever ratio you chose to allocate. See our monthly performance review, out soon after this mail, for all the details.

It’s a complicated outlook at the moment as we don’t think the US is in a typical recession yet but will almost certainly be within a few quarters. That delay is supportive for markets relative to what was priced a few weeks ago but it’s hard to say the outlook is positive. However the market has more rallied on lower expected terminal rates and the move to price rate cut probabilities within 6 months. We don’t think either will come to pass but my rates colleague Francis Yared always tells me not to fight bullish fixed income markets in the summer. Indeed the CoTD on Friday (link here) showed that August is by far and away the best month of the year for bonds.

Interestingly Larry Summers had some harsh words over the weekend suggesting the Fed is engaging in “wishful thinking” in what it will take to tame inflation and that “Jay Powell said things that, to be blunt, were analytically indefensible ….” and that “…there is no conceivable way that a 2.5% interest rate, in an economy inflating like this, is anywhere near neutral.” So this debate will rage on but the winner in August may not be the winner by year end.

Markets haven’t had a chance to wind down for summer yet and maybe they won’t get the chance with US payrolls on Friday, followed by CPI on Wednesday 10th. If nothing out of the ordinary occurs in these two prints though maybe we can have a quiet two or three weeks. However if payrolls are far from consensus and/or CPI is strong then we may have some fun and games in August. It’s a month of low liquidity and if something big happens it can be multiplied in such thin trading.

Outside of payrolls, the other most important events this week include the manufacturing PMIs and ISM today, the RBA decision and US JOLTS tomorrow, services PMIs and ISM Wednesday, and the likely biggest hike from the BoE for 27 years alongside the increasingly important US jobless claims data on Thursday. Apart from that, earnings are still coming from all directions, but we are past halfway in the US with over 260 companies having reported. It’s 232 in the Stoxx 600. It might be hard to eclipse the big US tech week last week though. The other thing to look out for is whether US House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan this week on her Asian trip. It could set off a major geopolitical incident if she does and domestic accusations of backing down to China if she doesn’t given she’d previously said she would visit.

The full day by day week ahead is at the end as usual on a Monday but let’s preview the main highlights in detail with the big one being payrolls of course.

Our US economists expect a 250k reading for nonfarm payrolls (down from 372k in June with consensus also at 250k) and for the unemployment rate to slightly decline to 3.5% from 3.6% (consensus 3.6%). Our economists think the gradual increase in continuing claims since last month is enough to slow the pace of job growth. Remember we did a CoTD on payrolls day last month showing that the first month of a recession on average has a negative payroll print whereas the months leading up to it don’t (including R-1). See here for a reminder. This is one of the main reasons we don’t think we’re there yet in terms of a recession.

Our favoured measure of the strength of the labour market has been the JOLTS data which next comes out tomorrow for June. The problem is that it is always one month behind other data. However it gives us a decent if slightly rear-view mirror look at job openings and labour market tightness.

Moving on, the BoE’s decision on Thursday will be a big event with our UK economists and consensus expecting a +50bps move, which will take the Bank Rate to 1.75% and become the largest single increase since 1995. It will likely also be accompanied by somewhat hawkish economic forecasts from the Bank. The team’s full preview, including expectations on forward guidance and QT, can be found here.

Before the BoE, our economists expect the RBA to also hike +50bps tomorrow. Regarding policy guidance, they expect the central bank to reiterate the need for higher interest rates, which would implicitly keep another +50bps hike in September among the options.

Turning to corporate earnings, this week’s line-up will feature a number of important commodities companies, including BP, Occidental Petroleum (tomorrow), ConocoPhillips and Glencore (Thursday). Travel & leisure firms like Marriott, Airbnb (tomorrow) and Booking (Wednesday) will be in the spotlight as well to assess trends in consumer spending on services. Notable carmakers reporting results will include Toyota (Thursday), BMW (Wednesday) and Ferrari (tomorrow). In healthcare, investors will be focused on Regeneron, Moderna (Wednesday), Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and Bayer (Thursday). Other notable reporters will include Advanced Micro Devices, PayPal (tomorrow), Maersk (Wednesday) and Alibaba (Thursday).

Asian equities are quiet at the start of the week but with China’s disappointing economic data pointing to further weakness in the world’s second biggest economy (more below). As I type, the Nikkei (+0.47%), Shanghai Composite (+0.15%), the CSI and the Kospi (+0.10%) are holding on to their gains helped by a strong US session on Friday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.25%) is lower. Outside of Asia, DM stock futures are weaker with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.50%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.45%) and DAX (-0.25%) edging lower.

Oil prices are around -1.5% lower post China data and uncertainty over the OPEC+ meeting this week. Separately, yields on 10yr USTs (-2.0bps) have moved lower, trading at 2.67%, as we go to press.

Onto that China data, and factory activity expanded at a slower pace with the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI for July easing to 50.4 from 51.7 in June, below analysts’ expectations for a slight dip to 51.5 as growth momentum softened in output, new orders and employment. Over the weekend, China’s factory activity contracted unexpectedly in July with the official reading falling to 49.0 (50.3 expected) from 50.2 in June, underscoring the extent of the uncertainty around growth stemming from fresh virus flare-ups, declining global demand and property market risks.

Onto last week now, the FOMC raised rates a super-charged 75bps for the second consecutive meeting, yet financial conditions eased as the market latched onto comments that the hiking cycle would slow at some point and that the Committee was paying heed to slowing activity data. On that news, the splashiest data of the week was the Q2 US GDP which showed the second consecutive quarter of contraction, spurring endless debates as to what constitutes a recession. In Europe, lower Nord Stream capacity continues to ratchet energy pressure higher.

The perceived pivot in Fed communications along with slowing activity data drove a shallower pricing of global monetary policy, and thus a rally in global sovereign yields. 10yr Treasuries were -10.2bps lower (-2.7bps Friday), led by a -30.8bp decline in real yields, while 2yr Treasuries were -8.6bps lower on the week (+2.2bps Friday). Not to be outdone, 10yr bunds fell even more, declining -21.4bps (-0.9bp Friday), as the continent looks exposed to even larger potential external shocks. With less aggressive tightening expected, 10yr BTPs tightened -8.1bps versus bunds, -14.3bps of which came on Friday as the main populist far-right party Brothers of Italy, who are polling very strongly, were reported to be likely to adhere to EU budget rules if elected.

The easing of expected tightening was a boon to equity markets, which staged big gains across the Atlantic. The S&P 500 was +4.26% higher (+1.42% on Friday) while the NASDAQ picked up +4.70% (+1.88%). Many of the mega cap tech companies reported this week in the US to mixed results. Advertising revenue was sluggish, but supply chain pressures seemed to ease which helped those facing retail customers. Across the board, it seemed like hiring was either slowing or plans were in place to start reducing hiring. European equities also enjoyed some respite from global policy tightening, with the STOXX 600 picking up +2.96% (+1.28% Friday), the DAX +1.74% (+1.52% Friday), and the CAC higher by +3.73% (+1.72% Friday).

Despite slowing activity data, oil prices showed no signs of a demand slowdown, with Brent futures climbing +6.60% over the week (+2.68% Friday).

On Friday’s data, the US Employment Cost Index increased +1.3%, above 1.2% expectations but a marginal deceleration from 1Q’s 1.4%. The final University of Michigan Sentiment reading was 51.5, versus 51.1 expectations, while year-ahead inflation expectations stayed at 5.2% even if longer term ones edged back up a tenth to 2.9%.

END

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Sentiment constructive despite mixed APAC handover with US ISM ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

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MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 06:48 AM

  • European bourses remain firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, as the region shrugs-off Final Manufacturing PMIs and a mixed APAC handover
  • US futures are under pressure in a continuation of downbeat APAC trade amid poor Chinese PMIs and with multiple key risk events looming for the week, ES -0.2%
  • DXY continues to slip as activity-currencies climb with RBA due Tuesday and the JPY revival resilient; Yuan hit on respective PMIs
  • Core debt consolidates, BTPs outperform and the US yield curve is relatively steady directionally
  • Crude benchmarks are pressured in a resumption of Friday’s action after modest overnight consolidation as the complex looks towards OPEC+.
  • House Speaker Pelosi’s official itinerary does not mention Taiwan; however, Reports have mentioned August 2nd and 4th
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Earnings from AXA

For the full report and more content like this check out Newsquawk.

Try a 14 day trial with Newsquawk and hear breaking trading news as it happens.

As of 11:05BST/06:05ET

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Earnings from AXA.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the government decided to conduct a mandatory evacuation of areas in Donetsk that Russia does not control and said that hundreds of thousands of civilians in the combat zone need to leave, according to reports in Reuters and Evening Standard.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine’s harvest could be half the usual amount this year due to the Russian invasion, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that the first Ukrainian grain ship is scheduled to depart this Monday, according to CNN.
  • UK military intelligence said it is likely that Ukraine successfully repelled small-scale Russian assaults from the long-established front line near Donetsk and said that Russia is highly likely to prepare for referendums on joining Russia in newly occupied territories in southern Ukraine, while it was separately reported that MI6 chief Moore said Russia is running out of steam in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
  • Russia invited UN and Red Cross experts to probe the deaths of dozens of Ukrainian prisoners in a jail controlled by Moscow-backed separatists, while the International Committee of the Red Cross condemned the attack on the Olenivka penal facility and said parties must do everything to determine the facts behind the attack but added it is not its role to carry out public investigations into war crimes and that it has not received official confirmation granting access to the site or POWs affected by the attack, according to Reuters.
  • Russian President Putin said the Russian navy will receive new hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles in the next few months and that the area of their deployment would be dependent on Russian interests, according to Reuters.
  • Russia’s Kremlin says they have little ability to change the situation with Nord Stream 1 (NS1) equipment; says NS1 issues need fast maintenance, via Reuters.

OTHER

  • Iran said it responded to the EU proposal aimed at salvaging the nuclear deal and is seeking a swift conclusion to negotiations, according to Reuters citing a tweet from Iran’s top nuclear negotiator.
  • US is mulling sanctions that could target a UAE-based businessman and a network of companies suspected of aiding exports of Iranian oil, according to WSJ.
  • Global Time’s Hu Xijin tweets “The PLA has clearly been well prepared. If (US House Speaker Pelosi) dares to stop in Taiwan, it will be the moment to ignite the powder keg of the situation in the Taiwan Straits.”.
  • Unfamiliar/unconfirmed source – US House Speaker Pelosi is arriving to Taipei, Taiwan, tomorrow night, according to TVBS’ Tingting Liu.

EUROPEAN TRADE

CENTRAL BANKS

  • BoK said it sees small incremental rate increases as appropriate going forward as long as inflation and growth trends do not deviate much from expected paths, according to Yonhap. Furthermore, BoK Governor Rhee said inflation will most likely exceed 6% for a few months and it is desirable to raise rates by 25bps instead of 50bps
  • ECB Bulletin pre-release: The recent increase in energy prices constitutes a significant supply shock, which could therefore also have an impact on the potential output of the euro area economy.
  • HKMA buys HKD 2.669bln from market, as the HKD hits the weak end of the trading range, via Reuters.

EQUITIES

  • European bourses remain firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, as the region shrugs-off Final Manufacturing PMIs and a mixed APAC handover given Friday’s strong Wall St. performance.
  • However, US futures are underpressure in a continuation of downbeat APAC trade amid poor Chinese PMIs and with multiple key risk events looming for the week, ES -0.2%.
  • In Europe, sectors are mixed with the breadth of performance narrow ex-banks given pronounced upside in HSBC, +6.0%, post-earnings; note, HSBC accounts for 18% of the Europe Stoxx 600 Banking sector.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY down to deeper cycle low sub-105.500 as Yen revival continues and activity currencies climb, USD/JPY retesting underlying bids and support into 132.00 including next layer of Japanese importer buying interest.
  • Aussie up in anticipation of RBA and Kiwi ahead of NZ jobs data, AUD/NZD and NZD/USD firmly back above 0.7000 and 0.6300 respectively.
  • Euro eyes recent peaks and Sterling probes stops around last Friday’s high, EUR/USD touches 1.0270 and Cable tops 1.2250 .
  • Yuan softer in wake of weaker than expected Chinese PMIs, but Rand remains bid irrespective of inflation contractionary SA PMI as Gold underpins, USD/CNH and USD/CNY 6.7600+ and 6.7500+, USD/ZAR under 16.5000.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Debt continues to consolidate and retrace from new corrective peaks, but curves remain steeper.
  • Bunds and Gilts sub-par within 157.74-156.74 and 118.22-117.72 respective ranges, T-notes flattish between 121-07+/120-28 parameters.
  • BTPs bid and sharply outperform ahead of Italy’s snap elections and into month bereft of issuance.
  • 10 year bond tops 127.50 from 126.40 low just 7 ticks above prior close.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are pressured in a resumption of Friday’s action after modest overnight consolidation as the complex looks towards OPEC+.
  • Currently, benchmarks are firmer by over USD 1.50/bbl; while Dutch TTF remains around the EUR 200/MWh mark as Russia put the onus on others re. Nord Stream 1.
  • Spot gold is firmer, deriving upside from the pressure seen in the USD though the magnitude of the yellow metal’s move perhaps capped by the generally constructive European tone.
  • OPEC Secretary General Al-Ghais said OPEC is not in competition with Russia and that Russia is a big main player in the world energy map with its membership in OPEC+ vital for the success of the agreement. Al-Ghais added OPEC doesn’t control oil prices but practices tuning markets in terms of supply and demand, while he added that the recent rise in prices is not just related to the Ukraine crisis but is also due to lack of spare production capacity. Furthermore, he said the current state of the global oil market is very volatile and that the most important factor to affect oil prices by year-end is the lack of investments in the sector, according to an interview with Al Rai newspaper cited by Reuters.
  • Libya’s Unity government oil minister said oil production is at 1.2mln bpd, according to Reuters.
  • Gazprom said it is halting gas supplies to Latvia and accused it of violating conditions, while Latvia said that it doesn’t expect Gazprom’s decision to have any major impact, according to Reuters.
  • European governments have eased back on efforts to curb trade in Russian oil in which they are delaying a plan to shut Moscow out of the vital Lloyd’s of London maritime insurance market and will permit some international shipments amid fears of rising crude prices and tighter global energy supplies, according to FT.
  • The first ship with grain left the port of Odessa, according to CNN Türk; subsequently, Ukrainian Infrastructure minister says if the grain deal works in full, they will start consultations to open the port of Mykolaiv, via Reuters.
  • Part of the damaged Beirut port silos collapsed following a weeks-long fire, according to Al Jazeera
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • UK business groups warned of an ‘iceberg’ of business rates next spring with business rates set to increase by up to GBP 3bln amid soaring inflation and have urged the government to intervene to avoid sinking British businesses, according to FT.
  • Former UK Chancellor Sunak vowed to lower the basic rate of income tax by 20% by 2029 if he becomes the next UK PM, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that current Chancellor Zahawi formally endorsed Liz Truss to be the next Tory party leader, according to The Telegraph.
  • German Engineering orders -2% in April-June period Y/Y (Domestic -8%; foreign orders +1%); June level -9% Y/Y (Domestic -11%, Foreign orders -8%), according to VDMA.

DATA RECAP

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 52.1 vs. Exp. 52.2 (Prev. 52.2)
  • EU S&P Global Manufacturing Final PMI (Jul) 49.8 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.6)
  • EU Unemployment Rate (Jun) 6.6% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.6%)
  • German Retail Sales MM Real (Jun) -1.6% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 1.2%); YY Real (Jun) -8.8% vs. Exp. -8.0% (Prev. -3.6%, Rev. 1.1%)
  • Citi/YouGov UK Inflation Expectations (July): 5-10yrs ahead 3.8% (4.0% in June); One-year: 6.0% (6.1% in June)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Fed’s Kashkari (2023 Voter) said on Friday that he was surprised by markets’ interpretation that the Fed would soon begin to back off and said that 50bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings seem reasonable, while he added that continued higher core inflation could push him to think a 75bps move would be needed and said he doesn’t know what the bond market is looking at reaching the conclusion that Fed may even begin to cut rates next year, according to The New York Times. Kashkari also stated that the US economy is a long way from 2% inflation and that they keep getting surprised on inflation prints, while he also noted that whether or not the US is technically in a recession doesn’t change his analysis, according to CBS.
  • White House physician said US President Biden tested positive again for COVID during the weekend after testing negative a few days beforehand but added that President Biden is experiencing no symptoms and feels well, while it is believed that the positive test is a ‘rebound positivity’ which is experienced by some COVID patients, according to The Hill and Reuters. White House also stated that President Biden will isolate until he tests negative and has cancelled trips to Delaware and Michigan.
  • US Senator Manchin defended Democrat plans for a 15% minimum corporate tax rate and limit ‘carried interest’ as part of an energy, climate and social spending bill valued at USD 369bln, according to FT.
  • At least 26 people were killed amid floods in eastern Kentucky and the death toll is expected to continue increasing, according to the state governor cited by Reuters.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were choppy as momentum from last week’s earnings-inspired euphoria on Wall St was partially offset by disappointing Chinese PMI data and cautiousness ahead of upcoming risk events including central bank rate decisions, NFP jobs data and US House Speaker Pelosi’s trip to Asia.
  • ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in energy and utilities after the competition regulator’s interim gas report forecast Australia’s east coast could face a shortfall of 56PJ in 2023, while the latest domestic manufacturing PMI data remained in expansion territory.
  • Nikkei 225 was also positive with the biggest movers driven by recent earnings releases and reports also noted that Japan’s panel is expected to seek a record increase of at least JPY 30 to minimum wages.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially pressured after Chinese PMI data missed expectations in which the official manufacturing reading printed at a surprise contraction, with sentiment also not helped by US-China tensions as the world second-guesses whether or not US House Speaker Pelosi will defy China’s warnings regarding visiting Taiwan during her Asia trip. However, the mood in Chinese stocks gradually improved and retraced the majority of losses.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • US House Speaker Pelosi’s official itinerary for her trip to Asia was released which did not mention Taiwan, while Radio France Internationale’s Chinese website quoted sources that stated Pelosi will fly to Taiwan via Clark Air Base in the Philippines on August 4th, according to Dimsum Daily HK.
  • China held live-fire drills off the coast opposite Taiwan and its air force said it will resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity regarding Taiwan, according to Associated Press and Chinese state media.
  • A senior official in Beijing said the atmosphere of last week’s Biden-Xi telephone conversation was the worst among the five talks between the leaders and President Xi was said to have showed the toughest attitude he has ever shown to any world leader, while the most important topic in the conversation was China-US relations especially the ‘Taiwan Question’. Furthermore, the official believes the probability of US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is low, as President Xi’s tough position on Taiwan will push President Biden to put more pressure on Pelosi to bypass Taiwan on this trip and the official warned that an accidental military conflict around the island of Taiwan cannot be ruled out if Pelosi insists on visiting Taiwan, according to SGH Macro Advisors.
  • Macau is to permit dine-in services and will reopen gyms, bars and beauty parlours beginning this Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.
  • US, South Korea and Japan will begin joint ballistic missile defence exercises in waters off Hawaii this week, according to Yonhap.
  • “China is willing to boost China-New Zealand comprehensive strategic partnership to yield more results based on the principle of mutual respect and mutual benefit while appropriately handling differences,” according to the Chinese Foreign Minister via Global Times.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 49.0 vs. Exp. 50.4 (Prev. 50.2); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 53.8 vs Exp. 54.0 (Prev. 54.7)
  • Chinese NBS Composite PMI (Jul) 52.5 (Prev. 54.1); Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 50.4 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.7)

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.72 PTS OR 0219%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 433.17 OR 0.05%    /The Nikkei closed UP 191.71 OR % 0.69.          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.56%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.7531//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP 6.7652//    /Oil DOWN TO 96.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 102.28// SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.72 PTS OR 0.21%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 4..17 OR 0.05%    /The Nikkei closed UP 191.71 OR % 0.69.          //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.56%   / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

China now may seize undeveloped land from bankrupted (distressed) real estate zombie companies

(zerohedge)

Confiscation Next: China May Seize Undeveloped Land From Distressed Real Estate Companies

FRIDAY, JUL 29, 2022 – 06:00 PM

With Chinese markets disappointed by the lack of a stimulus announcement during yesterday’s July Xi-chaired Politburo meeting, which sparked a broad selloff in tech and property shares and sent the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of stocks 2.8% lower on Friday, taking its July loss to over 10%…

… Beijing, finding itself increasingly trapped by the continued deterioration in the country’s massive housing sector especially in the aftermath of the recent mortgage revolt, is reportedly considering confiscation (i.e., nationalization) next: according to Bloomberg, China is considering a plan to seize undeveloped land from distressed real estate companies, using it to help finance the completion of stalled housing projects that have sparked mortgage boycotts across the country.

The proposal would take advantage of Chinese laws allowing local governments to wrest back control of land sold to real estate companies if it remains undeveloped after two years, without compensation. That would give authorities more leeway to direct funds toward uncompleted homes, potentially to the detriment of creditors who would lose claims on some of developers’ most valuable assets.

According to Bloomberg sources, in a typical scenario the government would seize land from a distressed developer and give it to a healthier rival, which would in turn provide funding to complete the distressed developer’s stalled projects. The government could also rezone the seized land in some cases to increase its value, the people added, asking not to be named discussing private information.

The proposal is one of several measures under consideration as Xi Jinping’s government tries to prevent turmoil in the housing market from fueling social unrest and derailing the broader economy. Last week, we learned of a dedicated bailout fund meant to stabilize the housing system. The focus on completing projects is the latest sign that policy makers are prioritizing homeowners over bondholders, who have been burned by a record number of defaults by real estate giants including China Evergrande Group.

It is still unclear if the confiscation proposal will get a green light from Chinese leaders; it is currently under discussion by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development with other regulators.

While in 2021 Beijing appeared to take the sharp deterioration across the property sector almost whimsically, perhaps Chinese leaders finally realized what’s at stake here: the numbers are truly staggering.

According to Bloomberg, outstanding individual mortgage loans hit 38.86 trillion yuan as of the end of June, growing at a rate of 5.1% annually. Meanwhile, total outstanding property development loans at June were 12.49 trillion yuan while the total outstanding loans to the property sector were 53.1 trilion yuan. In other words, not even China’s state-owned banking system would be immune to contagion that spreads to broader mortgage sector.

It’s not just traditional mortgages that are at risk: China’s top 100 developers owned land parcels valued at 42.5 trillion yuan ($6.3 trillion) at the end of last year, according to China Real Estate Information Corp. Many of them borrowed heavily to buy the land, in hopes that prices would continue rising. That bet is now souring after a multi-year government clampdown on real estate leverage that has weighed on home prices, land values and new residential property sales.

The result is that many distressed builders are sitting on land they’ve been unable or unwilling to develop. Just 37% of land parcels auctioned in the first batch of centralized land-bidding last year have started work as of March-end, according to a recent Caixin report. About 16% of the second batch were being developed, the newspaper said.

end

CHINA/ISRAEL/SYRIA

This is very worrisome to Israel

(zerohedge)

China Ramps Up Aid To Assad’s Syria, Alarming Israeli Defense Officials

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 02:45 AM

After being recently accused by Washington of aiding Russia during its Ukraine offensive, China has announced new aid for Assad’s Syria, which has set off alarm bells in Israel.

Syria will receive “advanced communications equipment” from the government of China, which was announced and confirmed during a prior July embassy ceremony in Damascus. The official announcement described the aid as aiming “to improve local network infrastructure, especially in those areas hit hard during the Syrian crisis since 2011.” This comes after China has long been in talks with the Syrian government over general post-war reconstruction efforts and investment opportunities.

Israeli officials worry that after years of reporting on quiet Chinese military advisory and technical support given to Assad and the Syrian Army, Beijing is poised to grow potential military aid. According to Israeli sources cited in Breaking Defense“this could be only the tip of the iceberg of Chinese assistance for Syria’s effort to rebuild its armed forces.”

Israel has long sought throughout the over decade-long war in Syria to severely degrade the Syrian Arab Republic’s military capabilities – seeing it as a long term threat to Israeli security – given also Damascus is a close ally of Tehran.

According to more from the recent Breaking Defense report

“We have indications that Chinese experts visited in recent months some Syrian military installations that were damaged heavily during the civil war,” one source said. “We believe that many [facilities] of the Syrian army will be rebuilt by the Chinese, who have the capability of bringing in thousands of workers to complete the work in the shortest time.”

These unnamed Israeli defense sources were backed in their assessment by the former head of Mossad

“Any type of relations between a world power like China and a country that is one of Israel’s enemies is worrying,” said Danny Yatom, a former head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency. “The Chinese without any doubt will perform big programs in Syria, and Israel should make sure that this fact will not limit its freedom of action in Syria. Israel will not take any chance of hitting by mistake Chinese people that will be working in Syria as part of the reconstruction work.”

China has never joined the West in calling for regime change in Syria. But quite the opposite, Beijing has stressed ‘counter-terrorism’ in line with the general Syrian-Russian-Iranian perspective on battling foreign jihadists. 

The Chinese government has in particular been worried about Chinese Muslim foreign fighters who entered the conflict on the side of Al-Qaeda linked groups. For example, members of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) – a Uighur Muslim separatist group that China has battled both at home and abroad – are believed currently to be operating in Idlib. The Turkestan Islamic Party has been known to join forces with global jihadist movements in recent years, particularly in Syria amid the fight to topple Assad.

END

China has already been planning an invasion to Taiwan

(zerohedge)

Pelosi Is Irrelevant: China Was Already Planning An Invasion Of Taiwan

SUNDAY, JUL 31, 2022 – 08:30 PM

Would China really commit to an impromptu war with Taiwan over Nancy Pelosi, a person who amounts to nothing more than a political smudge in the history books?  No, they wouldn’t, but they would be happy to use her diplomatic visit to Taiwan as a pretense for invasion.  

The timing for Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has not been released and will likely remain classified until the event.  China has announced live fire drills this week in the Taiwan Strait as a show of force and a state run newspaper has even suggested that the CCP has the right to shoot Pelosi’s plane down (If the CCP is hoping this will scare the American public, they might want to consider again that it’s Pelosi on the plane; i.e. no one cares).  China has also insinuated that direct invasion will take place if the visit occurs.  

A US carrier strike group is moving near Taiwan after being deployed from Singapore and tensions are high.  Ironically, Democrats chastised Donald Trump for “upsetting” Chinese/US relations over Taiwan only a couple years ago, and now they are one-upping him.    

According to an alleged Russian intel leak in 2021, the CCP was already planning a forced annex of the island nation (that the Chinese claim is not a nation) for the fall.  The leak from Russia’s FSB has not been verified, but it does parallel the increase in Chinese naval activity in the region, along with even more aggressive rhetoric than usual against Taiwan.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine perhaps triggered a pause in China’s plans, but not a complete reversal.  The increase in joint Russian and Chinese naval drills around Japan and Taiwan suggest that a Taiwan event will not be limited.  It could spread north to the Sea of Japan, where China and Russia would seek to nullify a response from US bases. 

Yes, this would be quite an escalation and it’s far more likely that China would play the long game by waiting for US and European economic turmoil to degrade their ability to respond to a regional conflict.  Of course, there is something to be said for the element of surprise.  

Timing is also a major consideration for China.  Weather cycles in the Taiwan Strait make a naval invasion difficult to maintain as dangerous storms rip through the area for a large part of the year.  September and October are the key months when the weather is most advantageous for Chinese naval operations.  Extreme weather fronts can disrupt radar, communications, thermal vision, night vision, drones, air support and obviously normal visibility, making intricate offensive actions very risky.  

It’s interesting that Pelosi appears to be scheduling her visit sometime in the next month, so close to when weather conditions are the most ripe for a Chinese attack.  Typhoons are expected to strike Taiwan through August and then dissipate in September/October when invasion is preferable.

The bottom line is that China WILL invade Taiwan in the near future.  Once communists decide that a group or nation stands as a symbol of opposition to their power, they will stop at nothing to erase that symbol.  Whether or not western interests are taking advantage of the situation is something to consider as well.  

A regional war involving Taiwan as a proxy for conflict between the US and China would probably progress much like the war in Ukraine – Lots of big talk and propaganda in the media about how China is being crushed economically and militarily.  But, in the end China sits right across the water from Taiwan, just as Russia sits right across the border from the Donbass.  Logistically, they have the advantage and they have the time.  Wearing the west down financially and through attrition would be their strategy and it would likely succeed given the mental weakness within the White House and among the current military brass.  

This is not to say China is justified.  Not in the slightest.  China is one of the most Orwellian nightmare states on the planet and their obsession with Taiwan is a product of communist zealotry rather than any sort of logic or reason.  This doesn’t change the fact that they have the strategic advantage if they manage to lure the US into a quagmire across the pacific, and Japan’s ability to help defend Taiwan is questionable.      

In terms of the bigger picture, certain interests (globalists) within organizations like the WEF might welcome such chaos and conflict.  It could be used as cover for the ongoing global economic decline that they helped create, and give them yet another shot at reducing our freedoms in the name of “security.”  One really needs to ask, why would Pelosi go to Taiwan right now?  And, who has asked her to go?  Is this Biden’s idea, or are other beneficiaries involved? 

END

Taiwan broadcaster: Pelosi to arrive on island Tuesday night | The Hill

Inbox

Robert Hryniak2:56 PM (1 hour ago)
to

Drama grows … The Chinese aircraft carrier “Shandong” left the base in Hainan and left in an unknown direction. Japan reports high activity of warships of the Chinese Navy. 

Taiwanese media reported that Pelosi will arrive at Sunshan Airport (Taipei) tomorrow evening at 22:30. “Command of China’s Eastern Military Region: We are ready to bury any invading enemy,” Chinese diplomat Cao Yi said.

END

China’s People’s Liberation Army just posted a new video on WeChat ahead of Pelosi’s potential visit

Inbox

Robert Hryniak3:06 PM (1 hour ago)
to

Can they be clearer?

END

White House Defends Pelosi Trip, Blasts China For Manufacturing Crisis & Warns Against Escalation

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 03:09 PM

Update(1509ET)The White House in an afternoon press briefing condemned Beijing’s escalating rhetoric after it was widely reportedly hours earlier that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will likely touch down in Taiwan Tuesday evening. There’s speculation she could even spend the night, based on anonymously sourced statements to Taiwan officials.

“There’s just no reason for this to escalate,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said as a warning to China. “There’s every reason given the our national security interests — as well as the interest of our allies and partners that are that are staking the Indo Pacific on any given day — there’s every reason for this to not escalate.” Kirby didn’t confirm whether she’ll go through with it.

China reiterated over the weekend and into Monday that it will take “strong and resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity” – seeing in a possible Pelosi visit a violation of ‘red lines’.  “Put simply, there is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with long-standing U.S. policy into some sort of crisis conflict or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait,” Kirby continued in his statement.

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Kirby blamed China’s actions of staging provocative military drills both across from Taiwan and elsewhere in the South China Sea as a sign Beijing “appears to be positioning itself to potentially take further steps in the coming days, and perhaps over a longer time horizon.” He added: 

“These potential steps from China could include military provocations, such as firing missiles in the Taiwan Strait or around Taiwan.”

Kirby further repeated the White House stance that it won’t interfere with members of Congress making their own decisions on visiting Taiwan.

  • INDICATIONS CHINA MILITARY MIGHT RESPOND TO PELOSI TRIP: KIRBY
  • ESCALATION IN TAIWAN STRAIT SERVES NO ONE’S INTEREST: US
  • US WILL ENSURE PELOSI’S SAFETY IF SHE VISITS TAIWAN: KIRBY
  • WHITE HOUSE SAYS WE WILL NOT TAKE THE BAIT, NOR WILL WE BE INTIMIDATED -KIRBY
  • KIRBY ON TAIWAN: PELOSI HAS NOT CONFIRMED HER TRAVEL PLANS
  • PELOSI HAS THE RIGHT TO VISIT TAIWAN: KIRBY

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“Nothing has changed. There’s no drama to talk to. It is not without precedent for the Speaker of the House to go to Taiwan,” he said. “Nothing about this potential, potential business — which, oh by the way, has precedent — would change the status quo and the world should reject any PRC effort to use it to do so.”

Chinese officials and state media are vowing a swift, severe response if Pelosi flies into Taiwan…

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Meanwhile the FT is out with some further fresh details related to White House scrambling ahead of Pelosi’s possible visit to the self-ruled island: “President Joe Biden dispatched senior officials, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, to lay out the risks to Pelosi, but people familiar with the situation said she had decided to press ahead with the landmark trip,” FT wrote.

* * *

Update(10:55ET)The vast majority of breathless Western media reports about Nancy Pelosi’s now “imminent” Taiwan visit are being sourced to Taiwanese media and officials; and among Taiwanese outlets it seems to race is on to produce more and more specific detailed predictions. For example, this is the latest out of Taiwan tabloid ETtoday – picked up by international news wires: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will arrive at Songshan Airport Tuesday evening at 10:30pm local time.

At the same time The Wall Street Journal is reporting Monday that “she’s definitely coming” – based on an unnamed source in contact with top Taiwan officials

People whom Mrs. Pelosi is planning to meet with in Taiwan have been informed of her imminent arrival, this person said, though some details remain in flux. Some of Ms. Pelosi’s meetings have been scheduled for Tuesday evening, but most are set for Wednesday, the person said, adding that they include, but aren’t limited to, Taiwanese government officials. “She’s definitely coming,” the person said. “The only variable is whether she spends the night in Taipei.”

And now being reported by Bloomberg – minutes following the WSJ:

PELOSI IS EXPECTED TO VISIT TAIWAN TUESDAY: PEOPLE FAMILIAR SAY

And yet Pelosi herself – not to mention the White House – could likely be very much on the fence given China’s military has ramped up threats, and is now on a war-footing, based particularly on harsher quotes coming out in state media on Monday. Taiwan’s defense ministry has said “no comment” when asked to confirm is she’s arriving.

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China has also announced closure of waters in the South China Sea amid ongoing PLA navy drills.

After weekend drills, specifically in response to reports of a Pelosi Taiwan visit, more have been announced, set from Tuesday through Friday.

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This as the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group continues to patrol waters near Taiwan – possibly preparing to respond to any aggressive acts from China which could threaten a potential Pelosi visit to the self-ruled island.

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More on the US strike group’s movements… the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship is also said to be headed for Taiwan.

* * *

US equity markets are accelerating their losses suddenly this morning (after briefly touching unchanged from overnight weakness) following headlines that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reportedly expected to land in Taiwan on Tuesday night.

Liberty Times reports, citing people familiar with the matter, Pelosi plans to visit the Legislative Yuan and meet lawmakers on Wednesday.

However, the US and Taiwan are still preparing for last minute changes, the paper adds.

Futures were sliding already but the Pelosi headlines pushed them to overnight lows…

Bonds are bid with 10Y Yields tumbling back to unchanged…

The offshore Yuan also tumbled on the report…

Interestingly, crude prices are notably lower (after disappointing China PMIs) and are accelerating lower after the Pelosi-Taiwan headlines…

China meanwhile Monday once again warned its military is prepared to take action if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi follows through on a landmark visit to Taiwan.

According to her published itinerary, which does not as yet name Taiwan – this could see her flying to Taiwan after her delegation visits Malaysia and just ahead of going to South Korea.

Amid Chinese PLA drills ongoing in regional waters, and with the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group also in the South China Sea, Nikkei writes that “The U.S. military is moving assets, including aircraft carriers and large planes, closer to Taiwan ahead of an anticipated but unconfirmed visit to the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.”

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The PLA military also on Monday issued a fresh propaganda video saying essentially ‘we’re ready for war’ – consistent with prior messages circulating on official Chinese military channels…

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As FT notes additionally of PLA muscle-flexing as a warning to Pelosi: “China’s PLA also on Saturday carried out live-fire exercises in Pintang, a coastal area in south-eastern Fujian province about 125km from Taiwan. State media also broadcast footage of a Chinese destroyer firing its weapons in the South China Sea, through which the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group is believed to be sailing after visiting Singapore.”

Gordon Chang without a doubt is our resident expert on Chinese affairs

The following is a must read as he describes what is going on internally inside China.

(Gordon Chang)

China To Pelosi: You Will ‘Perish’ Over Taiwan

SUNDAY, JUL 31, 2022 – 11:00 PM

Authored by Gordon Chang via 19fortyfive.com,

“The position of the Chinese government and people on the Taiwan question is consistent, and resolutely safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people,” Chinese ruler Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden during their phone call on July 28, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. “The public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it.”

“Perish”?

Xi’s dire-sounding warning, issued in connection with reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to go to Taiwan, suggests either that Xi Jinping perceives Biden to be so weak that he can push him around or that China’s internal problems are so severe that the Communist Party must create an external crisis to distract the Chinese people. In the worst case, both are true.

For about a decade, Chinese leaders have believed the United States has been in terminal decline, and their regime will soon ascend to global dominance.

Biden, at least in their minds, has confirmed this view.

His calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan and his failure to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Beijing thinking that it can now do what it wants to Taiwan.

At the same time, Xi’s threat could be the result of regime insecurity. He needs an external crisis so that the Chinese people won’t think too much about the internal ones. Inside China, coronavirus continues to infect the population, and Xi’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy is causing widespread resentment as well as undermining the ailing economy.

China’s economy, despite the report of 0.4% year-to-year growth in the second quarter, is almost certainly contracting.

At the same time, the debt crisis, delayed for more than a decade, has been hitting the country. Evergrande Group and other large property developers are defaulting on bond and other obligations, apartment projects remain unfinished, buyers of flats are participating in a nationwide “mortgage boycott” by not paying banks, the boycott has spread to suppliers of the developers, and financial institutions across the country are tight on cash. There are bank runs, especially in Henan province, but banks in the financial capital of Shanghai are also in poor condition.

Because property sales have plunged—the sales of the top 100 developers fell 50.3% in the first half of this year—local governments, dependent on property revenue, cannot meet obligations.

A Chinese entrepreneur this month told me that local cadres are trying to extort tens of millions of dollars from his firm. The fiscal problems at lower levels mirror those at the central government. Xi, under the banner of his “Common Prosperity” program, has been extracting tens of billions of dollars from tech giants such as Tencent and Alibaba.

Xi is also leading a nationwide mobilization effort, something signaled by the amendment of China’s National Defense Law, effective the beginning of last year, to transfer power from civilian to military officials, specifically from the central government’s State Council to the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission. The State Council will no longer supervise the mobilization of the People’s Liberation Army, which reports to the Party.

Although the Party has always been in control, the amendment contemplates the mass mobilization of society for war. Owners of private businesses are now being told to manufacture what the Party dictates, a move seen as building up stockpiles for conflict.

Many American analysts say that Speaker Pelosi is provoking a crisis with her reported plans to visit self-governing and democratic Taiwan, which Beijing claims is sovereign Chinese territory. That view is incorrect.

Xi Jinping needs no “provocation” from the Speaker to lash out. Currently, Chinese forces, already below the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, are preparing to take more Indian territory in the Himalayas. In June, Beijing renewed attempts to block resupply of a Philippine outpost at Second Thomas Shoal, in the South China Sea. In the East China Sea on July 29, four Chinese warships entered Japanese sovereign water around the disputed but Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands.

Furthermore, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley pointed out while in Sydney, “Chinese military activity is noticeably and statistically more aggressive than in previous years.” On May 26, for instance, a high-performance Chinese fighter jet accelerated and flew close to an Australian Royal Air Force P-8 reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace in the South China Sea region and released chaff, which was ingested into one of the P-8’s two engines. The Chinese jet also fired flares. This is believed to be the first time any military has used chaff and flares in this manner.

The Chinese defense ministry on July 28, in connection with Pelosi’s reported trip to Taiwan, stated “action is the most powerful language.” Chinese journalist Hu Xijin, who is often used to signal regime positions, on July 29 detailed the circumstances in which China’s military is prepared to bring down the Speaker’s plane.

There are no longer any safe options.

The most dangerous, at least in the long run, is for Speaker Pelosi to back down. By backing down, she will legitimize the most belligerent elements in the Chinese capital by showing everyone else that threats work.

This is now more than just a test of will.  

end   

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

GERMANY

Rhine water levels are very low and that stops barges from carrying cargoes

(zerohedge)

Rhine Levels In Germany Forecast To Drop Lower As Barges Reduce Cargo

SATURDAY, JUL 30, 2022 – 08:45 AM

As Germany bakes in a heatwave, water levels on the River Rhine — an 800-mile (1,288-kilometer) river that runs from Switzerland to the North Sea and is used to transport tens of millions of tons of commodities through inland Europe — have fallen to dangerously low levels

Water levels at the chokepoint of Kaub near Frankfurt declined to 25.6 inches (65 centimeters) on Thursday, its lowest reading since 2018, when a drought shuttered the waterway for 132 days, resulting in economic and supply chain turmoil. 

The low water level means barges must reduce cargo weight to navigate the shallow parts of the river or risk grounding. 

Roberto Spranzi from the DTG German Inland Navigation Association told the German newspaper DW that shippers are transporting half the cargo they usually would. Reuters said some shippers sail with only a quarter of cargo depending on the type. 

About 80% of all goods that are transported via inland waterways use the Rhine, making it Germany’s most critical transit artery to move goods around. Falling water levels have snarled supply chains, such as the ones of BASF, the world’s biggest chemical company. The company has failed to shift barge transport of goods to entirely trucking.

Two forecasts paint a troubling outlook for the river and imply water levels will continue dropping. 

“Unfortunately, our longer-range models suggest drought conditions will probably continue for the next months,” said Andreas Friedrich of the DWD Federal Weather Agency, adding the agency expects a 60-65% chance of dry weather through the autumn season. 

Another forecast, this time Kaub’s water levels, could slide to 23.6 inches (60 centimeters) by next week, resulting in even more vessel owners scaling back cargo to reduce draft.  

Shippers are focused on the critical 15.7 inches (40 centimeters) mark, a level if breached, prevents barges from sailing past the point and would result in a similar shutdown of the waterway as in 2018. 

Germany’s year from hell as energy hyperinflation, lack of natural gas supplies, supply chain snarls, and slowing economic growth risk the economy sliding into recession. Rhine woes could worsen the souring economic outlook, as noted in “Germany’s Energy Crisis About To Get Even Worse As Rhine Water Levels Plummet.” 

end

GERMANY/ENERGY

Germany will introduce a gas levy trying to stifle demand.  This levy could triple household heating bills in Germany

(Kennedy/Oil Price.com)

Gas Levy Could Triple Household Heating Bills In Germany

SATURDAY, JUL 30, 2022 – 09:20 AM

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Germany plans to introduce a levy for all its gas consumers beginning in October as the government looks to avoid a wave of collapsing gas-importing and gas-trading companies amid record-high natural gas prices, a new bill seen by Reuters showed on Thursday.

Russia is further reducing flows via Nord Stream this week, to just 20% of the pipeline’s capacity, days after restarting the link at 40% capacity after regular maintenance.   

The German government has already intervened to rescue energy group Uniper, Russia’s single largest gas buyer in Germany. Uniper—and many other German gas traders and suppliers—have been reeling from reduced Russian supply and soaring prices of non-Russian gas. Germany and Uniper agreed last week on a $15 billion bailout package, including the German government taking a 30-percent stake in the company and making more liquidity and credit lines available to the group.

Under the plans of the government, all consumers of gas, including households, will have to pay an additional levy, which will go to support Germany’s gas importing companies, which struggle with a lack of Russian gas and sky-high prices of non-Russian alternatives. The details of the bill are set to be announced next month.

Households and industrial consumers are expected to pay the levy through September 2024, according to the draft Reuters has seen.

“One doesn’t know exactly how much (gas) will cost in November, but the bitter news is that it’s definitely a few hundred euros per household,” German Economy Minister Robert Habeck was quoted by Reuters as saying on Thursday.

Marcel Fratzscher, president of DIW, the German Institute for Economic Research, told Düsseldorf’s Rheinischen Post newspaper that German households should prepare for at least tripled costs of heating on gas. The levy should be accompanied by a relief package for lower-income households, otherwise the new charge could lead to a “social catastrophe,” Fratzscher added.  

END

Latvia//Russia/Gazprom

Gazprom suspends gas supplies to Latvia.

(zerohedge)

Gazprom Suspends Gas Supplies To Latvia As Austria Warns EU Russian Energy Ban “Impossible”

SATURDAY, JUL 30, 2022 – 11:00 AM

“Today, Gazprom suspended its gas supplies to Latvia… due to violations of the conditions” of purchase, Russian energy giant Gazprom has announced Saturday in a statement posted to Telegram.

This after on Wednesday gas deliveries to Europe were cut to about 20% of capacity via the Nord Stream pipeline. The EU has continued charging Moscow with using energy as a “weapon” and as “blackmail”. 

However, the Kremlin has responded by again blaming Western and US-led sanctions for blocking the ability of Gazprom to properly and safely maintain its systems.

“Technical pumping capacities are down, more restricted. Why? Because the process of maintaining technical devices is made extremely difficult by the sanctions adopted by Europe,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, repeating his familiar theme that the EU has in essence shot itself in the foot.

“Gazprom was and remains a reliable guarantor of its obligations… but it can’t guarantee the pumping of gas if the imported devices cannot be maintained because of European sanctions,” he said. Regarding Nord Stream, Gazprom has said reduced supply is due to “technical condition of the engine”. The saga of the turbine hold-up and blame game with Siemens has in the meantime only continued in stalemate.

As for the stoppage to Latvia and Riga’s alleged “violations of the conditions” – this is likely connected with Moscow’s demand of payments in rubles for “unfriendly” nations and as retaliation for EU sanctions.

Latvia is now seventh on the list of European countries which have been cut off from Russian gas – or at least seen their supplies drastically reduced to the point they must start mulling emergency rationing plans (Germany being the front and center example of the latter case). Latvia now joints Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany.

But it seems Latvia was among those on its way to weaning itself off Russian energy in the first place: “Earlier this month, the Latvian parliament voted in favor of a proposal to ban Russian gas supplies starting January 2023,” notes CNN.

Meanwhile, more significant voices from within the EU have joined Viktor Orban’s criticism of Brussels’ measures targeting Russia, saying it will only hurt European populations worse. Russian media days ago cited the words of Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer:

The European Union cannot ban Russian natural gas, as the step would harm EU members more than Russia, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer warned on Thursday, as cited by Austrian media outlets. Chancellor Nehammer made the comments during a visit to Vienna by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

“Sanctions must hit those against whom they are directed more, but not harm those who decide them,” Nehammer told the Austria Press Agency.

Nehammer added, as translated in Lenta.ru, “Austria’s position is that an embargo on gas is impossible. Not only because Austria depends on Russian gas, the German industry also depends on it, and if it collapses, the Austrian industry will also collapse, and we will face mass unemployment.”

The Austrian leader’s “impossible” comments were later picked up in prominent Chinese state-run media as well. He also warned of a domino effect leading to “mass unemployment”.

end 

GAZPROM/GERMANY EUROPE/INSURANCE BOMBSHELL//

EU and uK slowed their efforts for insurance ban

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

EU, UK Fold? Delay Cutting Off Russia From Oil Insurance Market

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 01:50 PM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • The EU and UK insurance ban was to be a much bigger deal than the actual EU embargo on Russian oil imports.
  • The EU and the UK have slowed efforts to have Russia shut off from the most important maritime insurance market.
  • Full insurance ban could push oil prices even higher.

The EU and the UK have slowed efforts to have Russia shut off from the most important maritime insurance market amid concerns that a full insurance ban would limit global oil supply and push oil prices even higher, the Financial Times reports, citing UK and EU officials.

The UK was set to join an EU insurance ban after the UK and the European Union agreed in May to jointly shut off Russia’s access to oil cargo insurance. Under those plans, Russia would be effectively shut out of more than 90% of the global oil shipment insurance market.  

The insurance ban was to be a much bigger deal than the actual EU embargo on Russian oil imports, as it would cripple Russia’s ability to export crude anywhere in the world, analysts said at the time.

However, the UK has yet to introduce such restrictions on maritime insurance, FT notes. The UK participation with the scheme is crucial because London and the UK are home to many of the world’s biggest maritime insurers.

“There is no current UK ban affecting global shipments of Russian oil,” Patrick Davison, underwriting director of the Lloyd’s Market Association, told the FT.

The EU has also eased some of the initial insurance restrictions after saying ten days ago that:

“With a view to avoid any potential negative consequences for food and energy security around the world, the EU decided to extend the exemption from the prohibition to engage in transactions with certain state-owned entities as regards transactions for agricultural products and the transport of oil to third countries.”

Thus, the EU effectively still allows transactions with Russia’s state oil firms if the transportation of oil is for third countries, that is, such outside the EU.

Concerns about soaring energy prices have prompted the United States to look to convince major oil importers, including Russia’s key buyers these days, China and India, to endorse a plan to cap the price of Russian oil they are buying. The G7 group of leading industrialized nations, led by the United States, is considering waiving the ban on insurance and all services enabling transportation of Russian oil if that oil is bought at or below a certain price, yet to be decided. 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Russian Navy HQ hit by UAV, Navy Day cancelled. UPDATE and ALERT – FleetMon Maritime News

Inbox

Robert HryniakSun, Jul 31, 10:16 PM (9 hours ago)
to

Bears watching to see what comes forth …
https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2022/39009/russian-navy-hq-hit-uav-injures-and-damages-navy-d/

Cheers
Robert

end

Robert Hryniak2:41 PM (1 hour ago)
to

The deep state shift of narrative has started……

Supposedly  Biden penned an interesting article for the NYT entitled “President Biden: What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine“.  The entire things is behind a paywall, and it is not really worth reposting it here. 

Take this gem of a drop…..

“America’s goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression (…)  We do not seek a war between NATO and Russia. As much as I disagree with Mr. Putin, and find his actions an outrage, the United States will not try to bring about his ouster in Moscow

I could go on parsing this boring text, but here is the conclusion:

The “Biden” administration is now changing its official narrative.

It used to be about ousting Putin crushing Russia, now its about pretending to be strong while preparing the public opinion for the inevitable defeat of not so much the Ukraine proper (that war was lost in the first week of the SMO!), but the defeat of the USA and NATO in this conflict.

What this rally means is the Zelensky is being cast aside in real time and left to his own devices. Be sure behind the scene, photo shoots are done and he and his cohorts are on their own. Soon to be high tailing to whatever country who will take them.

Europe is left to pick up the pieces of puppet policy that is destroying it to the core. As it is officially, you are restricted to only being able to send out  6000 Euro at a time. Clearly, what has been in force unofficially is now official, Capital Controls are in force. And it is why i have warned for a long time of looming control that restricts Capital inflows and causes Capital outflows. Add to this both food and energy reductions and life in Europe will falter greatly leading to a fall of protests and a hellish 2023. 

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

Huge!!

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

Senator Asks CDC To Clear Up Conflicting Statements On Vaccine Safety Research

FRIDAY, JUL 29, 2022 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A U.S. senator is asking the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to clear up conflicting statements on whether a specific method of COVID-19 vaccine safety research is being conducted.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) asked CDC Director Rochelle Walensky for details after The Epoch Times reported that Dr. John Su, a CDC doctor, claimed that the CDC has been performing Proportional Reporting Ratio analyses on data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System since February 2021.

That conflicted with the CDC telling the nonprofit Children’s Health Defense that it not only did not conduct the analyses but that the method “is outside of th[e] agency’s purview.”

CDC’s assertion and Dr. Su’s statement cannot both be true,” Johnson told Walensky in a new letter, released on July 26 and dated July 25.

The American people deserve the truth and you have not been providing it. That is why I, together with millions of Americans, have completely lost faith in the CDC and other federal health agencies. It is time to start regaining their confidence and your agency’s integrity by coming clean, being transparent, and telling the truth,” Johnson wrote.

He asked for Walensky to immediately respond to a letter he sent before requesting information on the CDC’s vaccine safety research. He also requested she confirm whether Dr. Su’s statement is true and if it is, why the CDC claimed it had not conducted the analyses.

And if Dr. Su’s statement is accurate, Johnson wants all of the Proportional Reporting Ratio analyses that the CDC has performed since February 2021.

Finally, Johnson asked for Dr. Su to be made available for an interview with his office concerning the data examinations.

The CDC and Walensky did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Background

The CDC said in an operating procedures document dated Jan. 29, 2021, that it “will perform” Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR), a type of data mining analysis that compares the counts of adverse event reports following vaccination with one vaccine to those that have been reported after receipt of another vaccine or vaccines.

Read more here…

Dr Paul Alexander..

THIS IS BIG

NBC News Associated Press (AP): If monkeypox spreads through sexual contact, is it an STD? “HIV can spread through shared needles.”; We know this, but the HIV foci, source is STILL GAY & bisexual sex

“It clearly is spreading as an STI (sexually transmitted infection) at this point,” said Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. I am going to explain needle lie

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 30

Lies! Misdirection!

This is the typical propaganda and lies by the public health establishment and have the media doing it’s dirty work and they are inept and ignorant on the crap they print. Let me explain.

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Subscribe now

Yes, HIV entered the heterosexual community, eventually, as we allowed it to expand there, and yes, HIV can be spread by needles. But HIV was NEVER ever a heterosexual infection or disease. Public health MADE it so.

Yet, critically, there are key aspects you did not know or were never told as this was hidden by UNAIDS and WHO and CDC and Fauci etc. for they wanted since the 1980s to make you think HIV/AIDS is and was a heterosexual infection/disease. HIV/AIDS was big business, as inept, incompetent immoral so called experts set up agencies and sub-agencies and the like around HIV, only to derive research grants and live fat cat lives on tax payer funding. Yet accomplished nothing after over 40 years and hundreds of billions. They enriched themselves!

It never was a heterosexual infection yet became one due to the corruption, political correctness, and ineptness of public health like people Fauci. And it is not to blame the GAY and bisexual population but bisexuals have most if not all blame for how it expanded into the general ‘low-risk’ population. They, some bisexuals, were dishonest and deceived their monogamous low-risk wives/partners, whom many were married to (and with children) yet lied to her and she did not know they were sleeping with men too outside of the home and visiting bath houses and commercial sex trade workers on the way home from work and injecting drugs. That is how. Now you know!

Note, I was stationed overseas for the Government of Canada on a TB and HIV international project with India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives and Afghanistan. I have extensive expertise in this area of STDs and HIV surveillance etc. I decided to tie it to monkeypox to show you they, CDC, WHO etc. are trying to cause the same again, which is the expansion and spread of a virus easily stoppable, into the low-risk population.

Many will not like that I am explaining this for most remain bought and sold their souls to the ‘money research grant devil’, but as you have now realized, I do not care. My role is to bring the truth that you have been denied as to COVID and the vaccines and any issue.

Let me try to explain some more and they are now trying to make you think monkeypox has other means of transmission. Likely it can, but today, it is localized to the GAY and bisexual community and not aerosolized and unless we learn you can transmit a non-aerosol pathogen without tough nd contact, then it is DUE to contact. At this time, based on all we know, monkeypox is spread by tight close ‘direct’ contact between men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), GAY and bisexual sex.

I have many GAY and bisexual friends and they are good people, maybe better than many of us. Actually many have shown a moral compass ahead of the criminal sell out medical doctors around us. They currently have a problem with this virus and public health and Fauci et al. are playing politics and risking them. They need guidance and I know to give it only one way, served COLD!

The issue with HIV initially is that the virus needed bodily fluids to go from an infected to non-infected partner due to touch. It does this via the micro-tears in the rectal wall, anus, skin, penis etc. during MSM sexual contact. This was what HIV did initially and how it was massive infection in the GAY community. The stigmatization and slander of GAYS was wrong for it was not their fault that this virus used this mechanism to infect and transmit.

So there was lots of confusion as to how it was transmitted but this was how. Yes, the fluids in blood, saliva, semen etc. showed HIV virus etc. Bottom line is that the bodily fluids of an infected person could be the transfer point, but it needed micro tears in the recipient’s bodily tissue so as to transmit. This is why MAGIC Johnson retired for he was HIV infected (not getting into that as to how etc.) and the risk was in the abrasive contact on the court, his bodily fluids if another player got cut, could enter the system and blood stream of the player. There was the risk of spread if he collided with someone on the court and there was bleeding etc. between the two, and thus his optimal decision. Great one! I applauded his decision.

No, he was not running around having GAY sex with basketball players nor was there risk of that! If heterosexual couples had one partner infected and they engaged in rough heavy abrasive sex where there was breakage of tissue in one partner and the other had some STD, it is highly likely it would be transmitted to the other, though there is the issue of how long there is exposure, the load transmitted, how many times exposed etc. Several factors but one time is risk in itself.

The issue is that IMO, it was wrong to promote ‘safer’ sex with condoms for HIV etc. and the like for in reality, we drove drug-resistant HIV which over the last decades became highly resistant, complex to treat, and expensive to treat. Also we have the devastation of Fauci denying Bactrim to infected males over the AZT he pushed that killed thousands of MSM. Another discussion to have. This is my opinion, you can have yours. I am purely about abstinence if there is risk until the risk disappears.

Anyway, in the GAY and bisexual community, the bisexual males were having sexual contact with men and women when infected. Both. This was the devastating aspect. This caused the rapid expansion from the GAY and bisexual community to the general low-risk heterosexual populations. To low-risk women, wives, girlfriends etc. It was never an infection of the heterosexual community until the bisexual males started spreading it. We detected it in the lowest risk monogamous pregnant and peri and ante natal women, especially in African and Asian nations. If a pregnant woman has some emerging STD, we know it is widespread in the general population as she is the sentinel flag we use.

Importantly, we also know that when someone engages in one high-risk behavior, they engage in many. It is always a multitude. A fact. And so bisexual males also visited bath houses, commercial sex workers on the way home from work, injected drugs, had multiple partners etc. High-risk behaviors encourage the sharing of paraphernalia e.g. needles etc. We did many surveys etc. Commercial sex workers they bought sex from also injected drugs. They had multiple partners who were infected with HIV and a host of STDs. This is how HIV could be found on needles because bisexual males inject drugs (not all but many, and engage in many high-risk behaviors) and it is a lie and bullshit for NBC and AP to make you think if HIV could be spread by needles, by extension, so can monkeypox. Bullshit, lies! Yes, HIV can be found on needles but the source always can be traced to an antecedent HIV infected person.

If bisexual males did not have male and female partners, and did not lie and deceive their female partners and risk her health and life, HIV would have never expanded into the heterosexual population in the 1980s and 1990s, like it did. It is the bisexual male with multiple partners today, male and female, we are very concerned with as to monkeypox expansion and leeching into the low-risk general population as we try to assess this fully.

We call on the GAY and principally bisexual male to have no sex for 3 weeks (across the board, get your leaders to help facilitate this), and no anal sex and importantly, if you do, only one partner. This is not anyone trying to enter your rights and life, but this will help you mitigate risk and the society. We want to curtail transmission and cut the chain of transmission.

So conceivably, monkeypox could end up on needles but via the high-risk group of GAY and bisexual males if and when there is other high risk activity like injecting drug use, often using equipment shared and used by sex workers etc. or other partners who were exposed. It is the sexual networks that is the rate limiting step in transmission. It could also be that this monkeypox is another pox virus emerging due to the damage and immune-suppression post COVID injection given what we know about how the injection damages the immune system. We must be open to this.

There must be no stigmatization and ostracizing of the GAY or bisexual community. None. This is about approaching the monkeypox virus as a virus and understanding the virology, the biochemistry, the immunology etc. The medicine, the science. Not the behavior. It appears to operate like an STD today and spread by GAY and bisexual sex contact. If all this is so and it appears at this time to be 99.9% so, then there must be no sexual contact, no skin-to-skin contact, no anal sex, nothing, until we get this under control. The relevant high-risk community must work with the rest of society to protect themselves and the society.

Public health CDC and NIH and WHO Fauci and Tedros and Walensky have failed you! You have to take leadership now!

SOURCE:

NBC News: If monkeypox spreads through sexual contact, is it an STD?


end

and then this on Monkey pox:

Pfizer Board Member Predicts Monkeypox Will Become a ‘Public Health Failure’

Inbox

Milan Sabioncello2:24 PM (4 minutes ago)
to me

Pfizer Board Member Predicts Monkeypox Will Become a ‘Public Health Failure’
https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/pfizer-board-member-predicts-monkeypox-will-become-a-public-health-failure_4635027.html

end

Dr Paul Alexander….

First, it’s the VACCINE, stupid! Nigeria vs Japan as to COVID cases & deaths, now; look at rates, look at vaccine rates; why do you think Nigeria looks like this re COVID & Japan looks like that?

Why do other African nations look same as Nigeria? Look at South Africa data below too. Niger? India made a serious mistake turning to vaccine after it withstood so well with early/prophylactic drugs.

Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 1

Did African nations like Nigeria, poorer, not taking the vaccine, did they actually buy time for the immune system to be properly developed, for the innate immunity (innate antibodies) in kids to be developed? For the training of the natural killer cells (NK cells) of the innate immune system to be trained to properly clear out virus? To differentiate self from non-self components? Did African nations actually WIN? I say YES!

Stay strong Africa, none of these fraud COVID vaccines, NONE!

Substac

BA.5 much more infectious than BA.2; Kislaya et al.: “SARS-CoV-2 BA.5 vaccine breakthrough risk & severity compared to BA.2: a case-case and cohort study using Electronic Health Records in Portugal”

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 31

SOURCE:

SARS-CoV-2 BA.5 vaccine breakthrough risk and severity compared with BA.2: a case-case and cohort study using Electronic Health Records in Portugal

“The odds of complete primary vaccination (aOR=1.07, 95% CI 0.93-1.23) or booster dose (aOR=0.96, 95% CI 0.84–1.09) among the BA.5 cases were similar to the BA.2 cases, suggesting no significant differences in vaccine effectiveness against infection for the BA.5 lineage compared to BA.2(Table2).

Higher odds of reinfection were observed in BA.5 cases compared with BA.2 (aOR=1.43, 95% CI 0.92-1.26). Combining vaccination and previous infection status, the aOR of BA.5 infection was 1.70 (95% CI 1.40- 2.05) times higher than for a BA.2 infection, within those with complete primary vaccination and with previous infection. Among those with booster dose vaccination and previous infection, the aOR was not statistically significant (aOR=1.18, 95% CI 0.95-1.47).”

Vaccine Impact


6 Canadian Medical Doctors Died Within 2 Weeks After 4th COVID Booster Shots for Employees Started at One HospitalJuly 30, 2022 2:08 pmThe alternative media was all a buzz this week as several previously young, healthy doctors all died within just a few days of each other. The biggest story came out of Canada’s Trillium Health Partners-Mississauga Hospital in Toronto, where 3 physicians from that hospital died “unexpectedly” within the same week, and according to a nurse who also works in the same hospital, the deaths followed after the hospital started mandating the fourth Covid shot for their employees. These deaths followed the announcement of the death of Dr. Paul Hannam, the Chief of Emergency Medicine and Program Medical Director at North York General Hospital (NYGH). Dr. Hannam was reportedly in excellent health, as he was an Olympic sailor and marathon runner. Any links to COVID-19 vaccines he may have taken were vehemently denied by the hospital and corporate media. Then Dr. Candace Nayman, 27, a resident at McMaster Children Hospital in Hamilton and also a triathlete, also died “unexpectedly” this week. Then yesterday, Gateway Pundit reported that 44-year-old family physician Dr. Shahriar Jalali Mazlouman from Saskatchewan “died unexpectedly” last weekend, July 23. That is quite a flurry of “unexpected deaths” in the medical community in Canada, which mandates COVID-19 vaccines as a condition for employment in the medical system. How long will the public continue to believe that these “unexpected deaths” of previously young, healthy doctors have “nothing to do with the COVID-19 vaccines”?Read More…CDC Gave Big Tech Platforms Guidance On COVID Vaccine CensorshipJuly 30, 2022 5:24 pmThe right of every American to question and criticize their government is enshrined in the Bill of Rights in the First Amendment. Prohibiting dissenting views on any government institution or practice is strictly unconstitutional. However, for the past few years many people have voiced concern about Big Tech platforms censoring dissenting views against the government, and the most common argument used by Big Tech is that they are simply a private platform that allows people to voice their views, and that the First Amendment does not apply to private corporations. But now emails between the CDC and Google, Facebook, and Twitter have surfaced that suggest that the U.S. Government is, indeed, censoring dissenting views by influencing these Big Tech platforms, specifically in regards to the COVID-19 vaccines. Given how deadly these experimental vaccines have been, this is a very serious matter, and I would expect more lawsuits filed in the weeks and months ahead for what appears to be a gross violation of the First Amendment and the right of American citizens to criticize and question their government, especially in regards to medical and health issues
Read More…

GLOBAL COMMENTARIES/SUPPLY ISSUES

end

GLOBE//CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA///AGRICULTURAL WAR//UN/W.E.F.

We have been highlighting this to you over the past year:  the UN and the WEF are behind this global war on farmers

(Alex Neuman/EpochTimes)

UN, World Economic Forum Behind Global ‘War On Farmers’: Experts

SATURDAY, JUL 30, 2022 – 07:00 AM

Authored by Alex Neuman via The Epoch Times,

The escalating regulatory attack on agricultural producers from Holland and the United States to Sri Lanka and beyond is closely tied to the United Nations’ “Agenda 2030” Sustainable Development Goals and the U.N.’s partners at the World Economic Forum (WEF), numerous experts told The Epoch Times.

Indeed, several of the U.N.’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are directly implicated in policies that are squeezing farmers, ranchers, and food supplies around the world.

High-level Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members within the U.N. system helped create the SDGs and are currently helping lead the organization’s implementation of the global plan, The Epoch Times has previously documented.

If left unchecked, multiple experts said, the U.N.-backed sustainability policies on agriculture and food production would lead to economic devastation, shortages of critical goods, widespread famine, and a dramatic loss of individual freedoms.

Already, millions of people worldwide are facing dangerous food shortages, and officials around the world say those are set to get worse as the year goes on.

There is an agenda behind it all, experts told The Epoch Times.

Even private land ownership is in the crosshairs, as global food production and the world economy are transformed to meet the global sustainability goals, U.N. documents reviewed by The Epoch Times show.

As explained by the U.N. on its SDG website, the goals adopted in 2015 “build on decades of work by countries and the U.N.”

One of the earliest meetings defining the “sustainability” agenda was the U.N. Conference on Human Settlements known as Habitat I, which adopted the Vancouver Declaration.

The agreement stated that “land cannot be treated as an ordinary asset controlled by individuals” and that private land ownership is “a principal instrument of accumulation and concentration of wealth, therefore contributes to social injustice.”

“Public control of land use is therefore indispensable,” the U.N. declaration said, a prelude to the World Economic Forum’s now infamous “prediction” that by 2030, “you’ll own nothing.”

Numerous U.N. agencies and officials have outlined their vision of “sustainability” since then, including calls for drastic restrictions on energy, meat consumption, travel, living space, and material prosperity.

Experts interviewed by The Epoch Times say that some of the world’s wealthiest and most powerful corporate leaders are working with communists in China and elsewhere in an effort to centralize control over food production and crush independent farmers and ranchers.

According to critics of the policies, though, the goal isn’t to preserve the environment or fight climate change at all. Instead, the experts warn that the “sustainability” narrative and the other justifications are a tool to gain control over food, agriculture, and people.

“The end goal of these efforts is to reduce sovereignty on both individual nations and people,” said Craig Rucker, president of the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), a public policy organization specializing in environmental and development issues.

“The intent for those pushing this agenda is not to save the planet, as they purport, but to increase control over people,” he told The Epoch Times, adding that the goal is to centralize power at the national and even international level.

UN Sustainable Development Goals—Agenda 2030 

The U.N. Sustainable Development Goals, often referred to as Agenda 2030, were adopted in 2015 by the organization and its member states as a guide to “transforming our world.” Hailed as a “master plan for humanity” and a global “declaration of interdependence” by top U.N. officials, the 17 goals include 169 targets involving every facet of the economy and life.

“All countries and all stakeholders, acting in collaborative partnership, will implement this plan,” declares the preamble to the document, repeatedly noting that “no one will be left behind.”

Among other elements, the U.N. plan calls for national and international wealth redistribution in Goal 10, as well as “fundamental changes in the way that our societies produce and consume goods and services.”

Using government to transform all economic activity is a critical part of the SDGs, with Goal 12 demanding “sustainable consumption and production patterns.”

Among the specific targets outlined in Goal 12 are several directly linked to agricultural policies that undermine food production. These include “sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.”

Perhaps more importantly, the document demands “environmentally sound management of chemicals and all wastes throughout their life cycle, in accordance with agreed international frameworks.”

As a result, people and especially farmers must “significantly reduce their release to air, water, and soil in order to minimize their adverse impacts on human health and the environment.”

Other SDGs that are directly tied to what critics have called the “war on farmers” include Goal 14, which addresses “marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from land-based activities, including … nutrient pollution.” The U.N. regularly describes agriculture and food production as a threat to the ocean.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), led by former CCP Vice Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Qu Dongyu, is helping to lead the charge.

In its 2014 report “Building a Common Vision for Sustainable Food and Agriculture: Principles and Approaches,” the U.N. agency calls for drastic restrictions on the use of fertilizers, pesticides, emissions, and water in the agricultural sector.

As an example of how agriculture must be reformed to be considered sustainable by the U.N., the FAO report declares that “excessive use of nitrogen fertilizer is a major cause of water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.”

The Rome-based FAO didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Another of the 17 SDGs with a direct impact on agriculture and food production is Goal 2, with its calls for “sustainable agriculture” and “sustainable food production.”

Goal 6, meanwhile, calls for “sustainable management of water,” which includes various targets involving agricultural water use and runoff.

Because U.N. leaders see agriculture and food production as key contributors to what they call manmade climate change, Goal 13 is important, too. It calls for governments to “integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.”

Goal 15, which deals with sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, also has multiple targets that affect agriculture and food production.

All over the world, national and regional governments are working with U.N. agencies to implement these sustainability goals in agriculture and other sectors.

For instance, responding to U.N. biodiversity agreements, the European Union has enacted various U.N.-backed biodiversity programs such as Natura 2000 and the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, which have been cited by the Dutch government and others in their agricultural policies.

The U.N. also boasts publicly about its role in imposing the SDGs in Sri Lanka and other nations suffering from food shortages and economic calamities linked to the very same global sustainability programs.

Around the world, almost every national government says it’s incorporating the SDGs into its own laws and regulations.

World Economic Forum ‘Partnership’ 

Alongside the U.N. are various “stakeholders” that are critical to implementing sustainable development policies through “public-private partnerships.”

At the heart of that effort is the WEF, which since 2020 has been pushing a total transformation of society known as the “Great Reset.” In 2019, the WEF signed a “strategic partnership” with the U.N. to advance Agenda 2030 within the global business community.

The official agreement defined “areas of cooperation to deepen institutional engagement and jointly accelerate the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”

Many of the key officials behind Agenda 2030, including top U.N. leaders such as current Secretary-General António Guterres—a self-proclaimed socialist—have also been working with the WEF for decades.

Meanwhile, the WEF has been explicit with its goals. It recently launched a “Food Action Alliance” (FAA) that acknowledges on its website that Agenda 2030 “informs the ambition of the FAA to provide an enduring and long-term platform for multi-stakeholder action on food systems to meet the SDGs.”

Alongside the U.N.’s “Food Systems Summit” in September 2021, the WEF’s FAA released a report outlining its own “leadership agenda for multi-stakeholder collaboration to transform food systems.”

Among other elements, the document summarizes the FAA’s insights on “supporting transformative food system partnerships, and its value proposition beyond the UN Food Systems Summit 2021 towards achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.”

The WEF’s public concern with transforming agriculture and the food supply goes back over a decade, at least.

In partnership with various companies, the WEF released a 2010 report outlining a “new vision for agriculture” that included a “roadmap for stakeholders.” Many of the world’s largest food companies that dominate the market and own countless popular brands are involved.

The WEF’s website is packed with information purporting to justify a total transformation of the food supply by “stakeholders.”

“As global food systems become increasingly interconnected, effective coordination among a diverse set of stakeholders will be required,” WEF says on its “Strategic Intelligence” platform, frequently citing the FAO as its source.

“The potential to craft new, systemic approaches to food systems that include a diverse array of stakeholders presents opportunities to help sustainably feed the world well into the future.”

The organization’s frequent references to “stakeholders” refers to governments, companies, and so-called nongovernmental organizations that are often funded by those same companies and governments. They are all working together on the issue.

For instance, the WEF boasts that it has brought corporate giants such as Coca-Cola and Unilever into the fold toward promoting a “more sustainable future.”

The Rockefeller Foundation, which recently released a report on how to “Reset the Table” and “Transform the U.S. Food System,” is also a key player.

The WEF’s “Food Innovation Hubs” around the world are set to be a major part of this global transformation.

Speaking to the World Economic Forum on “transforming food systems and land use” at last year’s Davos Agenda Week, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced that the Netherlands would host the “Global Coordinating Secretariat of the World Economic Food Innovation Hubs.”

The secretariat, he said, “will connect all other Food Innovation Hubs” in order to facilitate creating “the partnerships we need.”

Neither the WEF nor the Rockefeller Foundation responded to requests for comment on their role in Agenda 2030 and on the agricultural policies being pursued around the world.

Other organizations and entities involved in the push include powerful tax-exempt foundations such as the Gates Foundation, the EU-style regional governments proliferating around the world, and various groups funded by them.

Squeezing Farmers—and the Food Supply 

All over the globe, U.N. SDG-aligned government policies are squeezing farmers—especially smaller, independent producers unable to absorb the added costs of added regulation and control.

Celebrating U.N. sustainability ideas, recently ousted Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa announced at the U.N. COP26 climate summit in 2021 that his government was banning chemical fertilizers and pesticides.

Read more here…

END

VACCINE INJURY/


Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every  on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…

Rabobank: If Pelosi Now Chickens Out And Doesn’t Go To Taiwan, China Will Have Proven It Controls Access To It

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 10:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Of all the things I expected to be doing on a Sunday night as I caught up with the world after a break from markets, watching Twitter playing ‘Where’s Nancy?’ was not one of them. Yet thousands tracked the US Speaker of the House of Representatives heading off as she tweeted, “I’m leading a Congressional delegation to the Indo-Pacific to reaffirm America’s unshakeable commitment to our allies & friends in the region. In Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea & Japan, we’ll hold high-level meetings to discuss how we can further our shared interests & values.” The rumor is she may also appear in Taiwan later this week.

This Nancy Drew Mystery is all over Bloomberg and the Financial Times because China has made clear it will respond if Pelosi does ‘go there’. Indeed, just days after Xi told President Biden that on Taiwan, “those who play with fire will get burned”, the Global Times says “Don’t say we didn’t warn you!“, and the PLA says they are “Preparing for war,” to public approval. Moreover, a missive titled ‘Red Clouds of War Looming Over Taiwan’ doing the rounds among expats in Taiwan (by a De Groot, but not the one in my team), stresses:

“It’s what we’ve all been dreading for years, a massive military attack by an aggressive, repressive, authoritarian China. One minute, we’re peacefully going about our business in this free, democratic, and basically humane country, Taiwan. The next, life is turned upside down. Bombs are dropped and missiles launched, causing death and destruction to people, property – and maybe the entire Taiwan dream. It’s a nightmare scenario both for native-born Taiwanese and for expats who love their adopted home, like waking up to find that the monster has finally crawled out from under your bed.

Terrifying, yes. And also damned inconvenient. If China did attack, the internet would almost certainly be cut off, as well as much of the infrastructure we take for granted. Phone service, electricity, and even water services might be problematic. Food could soon run out, and access to medical services, fire fighters, the justice system, and banking all severely curtailed. Life as we had known it would be over, perhaps even literally over for people living too near a military target. Even those far from the battle zones would be seriously impacted.

But could an attack possibly happen? Will it actually happen? And if so, when and how?”

The article points out the only meteorological windows for a sea attack are October and April and summarizes five logical scenarios:

  1. a minimalist seizure of outlying islands closer to the mainland;
  2. hybrid warfare to interfere with the economy;
  3. a serious attack but no invasion;
  4. a proper invasion;
  5. flattening Taiwan without invading it.

It thinks #3 is most likely. Some others think #1 or #2. Those thinking ‘none of the above’ should note defense analyst @tshugart3 says three of China’s largest/newest roll-on/roll-off civilian ferries appear to be off their normal routes and are in or have moved south toward the Taiwan Strait – and he is the author of a detailed article on how China has long prepared to use civilian maritime logistics against Taiwan. 

This Daily doesn’t know if Nancy Pelosi went long or short the Vix in flight. However, we are not surprised that we are now where we are – heading towards a high-risk, no-win scenario.

The flailing US –where President Biden has Covid (again) and is in one technical definition of recession– can’t back down as it tries to rebuild its leading role in Asia: if Pelosi doesn’t go to Taiwan, China will have ‘proven’ that it is able to control access to it, a red line which it would from then on likely enforce.

Neither can flailing China back down without losing face ahead of the looming Party Congress: indeed, it is going all in in other regards, e.g., trying to buy a strategic port in the Solomons; and, as its manufacturing PMI dips back below 50 again and the Caixin reading back to 50.4, may seize undeveloped land from property developers. Moreover, it knows that the US has just had to ground its F-35 fleet due to a safety issue. This kind of stand-off, and screw-up, is historically how major wars can start.

The mystery is not where Nancy is, but how the market thinks it will be able to say Nancy ‘drew’ when it is a zero-sum dynamic.

Pretending pressures are not building makes as little sense as it did when ignoring what Putin was doing on the border of Ukraine earlier this year – recall we warned back in January that war over Ukraine was far more likely than markets thought. The problem is that Taiwan and China implies disruption on a scale that would dwarf anything seen so far over Ukraine (where the EU is backing off of its planned oil/insurance sanctions, and Ukraine is stepping up its physical attacks on Russia). Thus the denialism.

Let’s also stress that it’s no mystery at all how we got to this latest crisis. We have warned for years that: globalization doesn’t deliver for enough people; not everyone who globalized shared the US world vision; global debt is too high; QE only makes rich people richer; inequality is ripping societies apart; we are living in a Lalaland of asset bubbles; populism is growing (just look at Italy’s opinion polls); China is also in deep structural trouble; the historical path is rising debt > bubbles > crisis > FX wars > trade wars > hot wars; a Great Power fragmented world order would re-emerge; fascism and communism would be back (and we can add imperialism); food prices would soar; so would energy prices (as the Wall Street Journal warns ‘Energy Prices May Keep Inflation High for Years’); industrial supply chains and logistics matter (and we remain ‘In Deep Ship’ as US port backlogs soar again); inflation isn’t transitory (as the June US PCE deflator was 0.6% m-o-m, 6.8% y-o-y, and 0.6% m-o-m, 4.8% y-o-y core); global interest rates would have to rise sharply; and the US dollar was the only game in town. I will throw in that we also said rates could rise AND some form of QE/MMT happen anyway, perhaps to pay for military spending – and Europe is now doing exactly that kind of thing.

To draw a market parallel, this Pelosi stand-off is similar to the zero-sum dynamic behind the central bank rates response to inflation, which was “They can’t raise rates!” vs. “They can’t not raise rates.” There was never a middle ground ‘draw’ to aim for – and which side won that zero-sum?

Yet even as the Fed dropped its forward guidance, while suggesting it could go forward in very large steps if needed, the market seized on suggestions that rate hikes could also slow, which “means” US rates will then start to fall sharply in 2023. Indeed, while July saw the Fed Funds rate rise 75bps to 2.50%, stocks were up 8-10%, bond yields distinctly lower, high yield spreads tighter by around 100bps, and the key US 30-year mortgage rate around 60bps lower.

More wealth effects. More inequality. Higher commodity prices. More strain on the global economic system. More failing supply chains, and food and energy crises. More strain on the global security system that has led us to Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan (and US-Iran and Serbia/Kosovo?).

And perhaps more strain on central banks, who don’t want to see any of this happening because it will mean they have to do even more on rates to reverse it. Unless they do want to see it happening, in which case we are in an even bigger mess than some think we are. But if they don’t, then market expectations of rate cuts in 2023 are likely to be as accurate as expectations of no rate hikes in 2022 were. And as expectations are that all will end well with this mystery over where Nancy is or isn’t.

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Oil Tumbles On China PMI Weakness, Libya Output Hike; To Remain Muted On Low Liquidity

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 09:22 AM

Oil started the new month on the back foot, driftng lower slowly at first and then accelerating the move to the downside, with Brent trading just south of $100, as disappointing Chinese PMI prints added to concerns that a global slowdown may sap demand while an increase in Libyan output eased supply concerns ahead of this week’s OPEC+ meeting.

WTI slid below $97/bbl after sinking almost 7% in July in the first back-to-back monthly loss since late 2020. Weekend data indicated a surprise contraction in Chinese factory activity, highlighting the cost of mobility curbs to tackle Covid outbreaks. Purchasing managers’ indexes also weakened in South Korea and the euro area’s four largest members.

Libya’s crude output has rebounded to its early April levels, the OPEC member’s oil minister said, in an increase that could help cool a jittery global oil market. Output climbed to 1.2 million barrels per day, Oil Minister Mohamed Oun said in a Bloomberg telephone interview. The increase comes after officials reached an agreement earlier this month with protesters and tribal leaders to reopen fields and export terminals largely shut for months.

Unfortunately for bulls, as Bloomberg’s Nour Al Ali correctly notes, open interest in Brent crude indicates that low liquidity is driving the market at the moment. This means that prices may remain range-bound as traders assess recessionary risks against tight market dynamics.

As Ali adds, even before OPEC+ meets later this week, the verdict might already be out: “Low open interest in Brent shows that traders are as invested as they can be in the oil market for the time being. When both prices and open interest fall, that could mean that long positions are being liquidated.  This chart that Alex Longley showed me earlier today shows aggregate open interest adjusted for prices near historic highs.”

Of course, as we have been pounding the table for months, on the ground, market fundamentals still look extremely tight. The market is in backwardation, where near-term prices trade at a premium to long-term ones. In fact, it’s gotten tighter for Brent over the last month as the chart below shows!

The concern, however, is demand destruction. Some corners of the market remain bullish over oil after the rally of the last two years, but slower global growth as well as a stronger dollar mean big consumers such as China and India might start to cut back demand. In a dynamic like this, it’s hard to see how OPEC+ can heed to US demand for more oil. More barrels on the block could mean less revenue for producers.

But not today: as the next chart from Bloomberg shows, in a stark reversal from years of underperformance, US drillers are drowning in cash and are expected to post record 2Q profits in coming days, reversing nearly a decade of debt-fueled losses. The top 28 publicly traded US independent oil producers generated $25.5 billion in free cash flow in the three months to June 30, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In that space of time they’ll have made enough cash to erase one-fourth of what they lost over the previous decade!

Meanwhile, speaking of this week’s OPEC+ meeting, Bloomberg notes that Biden took a political gamble with his visit to Saudi Arabia last month, courting a kingdom he once vowed to punish in a quest for more oil supplies, and this week will reveal whether it paid
off. 
The US president said he expected “further steps” from the Saudis to cool oil prices and safeguard the global economy at the close of his trip to Jeddah two weeks ago. OPEC+ will decide on Wednesday whether to oblige, though delegates warn that any supply boost would be modest — and may not materialize at all. The reason why? As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas notes, for only the 3rd time only in history, Saudi Arabia oil production is rising above 11m b/d from today (OPEC+ quota for Riyadh for August is exactly 11.004m b/d).

In other words, even if it wanted to, the best Saudi can do is ramp up output by a few barrels here and there…

  

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

PANAMA

SRI LANKA

ARGENTINA:

Argentina’s government is collapsing: people refuse to work as the government cuts major subsidies

(Spreaderman/EpochTimes)

Argentina’s Government Collapsing, People Refuse To Work Amid Major Subsidy Cuts

SATURDAY, JUL 30, 2022 – 08:30 PM

Authored by Autumn Spreadermann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Protests have erupted in Buenos Aires over the past 90 days and continue to build inside the capital as residents battle with their center-left government over sizeable amendments to social programs.

Cuts to subsidies in the energy sector based on household income already began in June.

Other subsidies, including the country’s notorious welfare program, are also on the chopping block, triggering thousands of angry residents to take to the streets.

State-sponsored aid for civilians has soared in the past 20 years, leaving 22 million Argentinians dependent on some form of government assistance.

In the first quarter of 2022, the national employment rate was 43 percent, according to government figures.

The country’s state funded programs extend to nearly every aspect of the economy, from wages to utilities, education, and health care.

Argentina already spends an estimated 800 million pesos per day—a sum of more than US$6 million—on state benefit programs.

Concurrently, inflation in the South American nation hit 58 percent in May and soared above 60 percent in July. By comparison, national inflation was just over 14 percent in 2015.

Harry Lorenzo, chief finance officer of Income Based Research, told The Epoch Times the spending habits of Argentina’s government are at the root of the escalating problem.

“The Argentine government has been grappling with a collapsing economy for some time now. The main reason for this is the government’s unsustainable spending, which has been funded in part by generous welfare programs,” Lorenzo explained.

Deeper Into Economic Chaos

Cries for more state money, freedom from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and for President Alberto Fernandez to step down echoed within the angry crowds gathered near the president’s office—Casa Rosada —during the nation’s independence day celebration on July 9.

Since then, scheduled demonstrations have continued, led by professional protest organizers or “piqueteros” demanding the abolition of the proposed subsidy cuts and a wage increase.

“This is madness. What the piqueteros are asking for is madness,” Alvaro Gomez told The Epoch Times.

Gomez has lived and worked in Buenos Aires for more than 15 years and currently is a taxi driver. As the years have passed, he’s watched his country dive deeper into economic chaos.

“I’ve seen five presidents come and go in that time; nothing has improved. Half of our country doesn’t want a job, and the ones that do, don’t want to pay the taxes for the others,” he said.

Read more here.

end

Following Sri Lanka, Panama becomes next nation to collapse amid global recessionary pressures and unrelenting inflation – NaturalNews.com

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:23 PM (19 hours ago)
to

Not a good place to be these days …. Other countries are following suit quickly

https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-07-28-panama-next-nation-to-collapse-global-recessionary-pressures-inflation.html

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0238 UP  0.0025 /EUROPE BOURSES //MOSTLY GREEN 

USA/ YEN 132.39   DOWN 0.738 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2229 UP   0.0084

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.72 POINTS UP  0.21%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 4.33 PTS OR 0.05% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.56%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES  MOSTLY GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 4.33.17 PTS OR  0.05% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.72 PTS UP 0.21% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.56% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 191.71 OR 0.69%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1773,00

silver:$20.42

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 105.42  DOWN 35  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.78% DOWN 6  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.178% UP 0     AND 3/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.89%// DOWN 4   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.98  DOWN 14   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.7535% 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0274  UP  .0061   or 61 basis points

USA/Japan: 131.69 DOWN 1.447  OR YEN UP 145  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2272  UP  0.0127 OR  127 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0003 OR 3 BASIS pts  to 1.2804

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7688  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.7812

TURKISH LIRA:  17.83  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.178

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  2.589% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   2.931 DOWN 4 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 105.16 DOWN 62   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 5.60 PTS OR  0.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 16.78  POINTS OR 0.12%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 3.72 PTS OR 0.06% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 66.40 OR 0.81%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 68.63PTS OR  0.29%

WTI Oil price 92.90  12: EST

Brent Oil:  99.40  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  60.44  UP 1  AND 11/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +0.7635

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0255 UP .0042     OR  42 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2253 UP .01074  or  108 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 131.70  DOWN 1.433//YEN UP 143 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2842 UP 0.0056 (CDN dollar DOWN 56  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 93.78

Brent OIL:  99.72

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.595 DOWN 5 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.918  DOWN 6  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.91

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  60.17   UP 1 AND   45/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 46.73 PTS OR 0.14 % 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 7.19 PTS OR 0.056%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.96 UP 1.63 PTS (7.64)%

GLD: $165.03 UP 0.93 CENTS OR 0.57%

SLV/ $18.70 UP 9 CENTS OR 0.48%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Markets Turmoil As Bad News Is Not Great News Anymore

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Shitty data has been very supportive for the last few days in markets as the world and their pet rabbit anticipates a Fed pivot being forced on Powell by recessionary forces.

Three things changed today

1) Jawboning – A smorgasbord of Fed (former and current) Speakers jawboned down the idea that a Fed Pivot is imminent.

2) Really Ugly Global Data – ISM Manufacturing data shit the bed and GDPNOW followed suit with a sizable downgrade of its Q3 growth forecast, (which followed terrible data out of China and EU)

3) WW3 Worries – Perhaps only of side notice but Pelsoi’s plan to visit Taiwan raises the risk of WW3 and that is just too bad of news to be buying.

And that prompted the ‘bad news is good news’ narrative to implode, leaving stocks lower, oil down hard, bond yields tumbling (and curve inverting), crypto dumped, and the Dollar and Yuan sold… with Gold bid.

The ugly China and EU data (accelerated by the Pelosi headlines) sent futures lower into the cash equity open, the algos kneejerk bought the dip on the ugly ISM data (prices paid were down), but those gains never held as confidence waned. By the close, the S&P was the ugliest horse in the glue factory…

The opening weakness was short-squeezed back up but could not hold…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed with the short-end underperforming (2Y +1.5bps, 30Y -10bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Which inverted the curve even more dramatically, erasing all the steepening since The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield closed at its lowest in 4 months…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar lost ground today, back at one month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

As did the Chinese yuan on Pelosi headlines (and an ugly PMI print overnight)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos slipped lower after strong gains on Saturday…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied today, extending its bounce off $1700 and nearing $1800…

Oil prices tumbled amid ugly data from China, EU, and US (and news that EU/UK will delay their insurance sanctions against Russia)…

Finally, we note that the drop in gas prices may be coming to an end very soon as wholesale gasoline and crude prices have decoupled from retail pump prices…

Source: Bloomberg

Not good news for President Biden’s ratings. Nor is this…

Finally, in case you needed any convincing, this morning’s ISM data had some interesting subcomponent action under the surface.

As @charliebilello notes, the last 4 times the spread between New Orders and Inventories in the ISM Manufacturing Index was this negative, the US was already in a recession. The 2001, 1990-91, and 1981-82 recessions never had readings this low…

But of course, it’s different this time right… because President Biden is in office?

END

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING// 

Stocks, Yuan Tumble On Pelosi-Taiwan Headlines

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 09:01 AM

US equity markets are accelerating their losses suddenly this morning (after briefly touching unchanged from overnight weakness) following headlines that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reportedly expected to land in Taiwan on Tuesday night.

Liberty Times reports, citing people familiar with the matter, Pelosi plans to visit the Legislative Yuan and meet lawmakers on Wednesday.

However, the US and Taiwan are still preparing for last minute changes, the paper adds.

Futures were sliding already but the Pelosi headlines pushed them to overnight lows…

Bonds are bid with 10Y Yields tumbling back to unchanged…

The offshore Yuan also tumbled on the report…

Interestingly, crude prices are notably lower (after disappointing China PMIs) and are accelerating lower after the Pelosi-Taiwan headlines…

China meanwhile Monday once again warned its military is prepared to take action if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi follows through on a landmark visit to Taiwan.

According to her published itinerary, which does not as yet name Taiwan – this could see her flying to Taiwan after her delegation visits Malaysia and just ahead to going to South Korea.

Amid Chinese PLA drills ongoing in regional waters, and with the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group also in the South China Sea, Nikkei writes that “The U.S. military is moving assets, including aircraft carriers and large planes, closer to Taiwan ahead of an anticipated but unconfirmed visit to the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.”

As FT notes additionally of PLA muscle-flexing as a warning to Pelosi: “China’s PLA also on Saturday carried out live-fire exercises in Pintang, a coastal area in south-eastern Fujian province about 125km from Taiwan. State media also broadcast footage of a Chinese destroyer firing its weapons in the South China Sea, through which the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group is believed to be sailing after visiting Singapore.”

end

ii) USA DATA//

Bad news for Biden and for the upcoming election:  Atlanta Fed to whom are generally accurate, slashes Q3 GDP growth from 2.1% to 1.3%. However personal expenditures plummet and are now negative 1.4% and domestic growth at -1.5%

(zerohedge)

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q3 GDP Growth As PMI Plunges

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 12:55 PM

Following two quarters of negative GDP growth – which is definitely not a recession remember – The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW model initiated its Q3 GDP forecast for the US economy at +2.1% on July 29th.

However, after this morning’s data, The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on August 1, down from 2.1 percent on July 29.

Following the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 2.5 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -2.1 percent, respectively.

So to summarize – we are a third of the way to a 3rd negative quarterly GDP print after just one day of data in Q3.

But of course, 3 negative quarters of GDP would absolutely, definitely not be a recession remember.

Finally, in case you needed any convincing, this morning’s ISM data had some interesting subcomponent action under the surface.

As @charliebilello notes, the last 4 times the spread between New Orders and Inventories in the ISM Manufacturing Index was this negative, the US was already in a recession. The 2001, 1990-91, and 1981-82 recessions never had readings this low…

But of course, it’s different this time right… because President Biden is in office?

END

Weak Manufacturing Surveys Signal ‘Peak Inflation’; Plunge in Orders, Production, & Jobs

 it was no surprise that S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI fell further intramonth to 52.2 in July from 52.7 in June – the lowest since July 2020. On the other hand, ISM Manufacturing beat expectations, falling from 53.0 to 52.8 (the lowest since June 2020) but that was better than the expected 52.0.

Source: Bloomberg

According to S&P Global, firms continued to pass-through higher costs to clients, as output charges rose at an historically elevated pace. The decrease in new order inflows was accompanied by a weakening of payroll growth to the lowest for six months.

However, according to ISM, Prices Paid plummeted from 78.5 to 60.0 – the biggest MoM drop since June 2010

Both employment and new orders remain in contraction (below 50)…

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

With the exception of pandemic lockdown periods, July saw US manufacturers report the toughest business conditions since 2009. A growth spurt in the spring has quickly gone into reverse, with new orders for factory goods down for a second straight month in July, leading to the first drop in production for two years and sharply reduced employment growth.

“The rising cost of living is the most commonly cited cause of lower sales, as well as the worsening economic outlook.

“Companies are also taking an increasingly cautious approach to purchasing and inventories amid the gloomier outlook, and likewise appear to be cutting back on investment, with new orders falling especially sharply for business equipment and machinery in July.

Most notably, this appears to be the most market-moving aspect of the survey:

“Supply chain problems remain a major concern but have eased, taking some pressure off prices for a variety of inputs. This has fed through to the smallest rise in the price of goods leaving the factory gate seen for nearly one and a half years, the rate of inflation cooling sharply to add to signs that inflation has peaked.

Finally, firms’ expectations regarding the outlook for output over the coming 12 months remained at their lowest since October 2020 amid inflation and supply chain concerns, as well as a gloomier global economic outlook.

end

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

San Francisco has a high population of gays.  They have now issued a state of emergency over the Monkeypox spread

(Ly/EpochTimes)

State Of Emergency In San Francisco Declared Over Monkeypox Spread

FRIDAY, JUL 29, 2022 – 05:40 PM

Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

A state of emergency has been announced in San Francisco on July 28 over the spread of monkeypox, a viral disease that has spread to more than 70 countries since the start of 2022.

“San Francisco is declaring a Local Public Health Emergency for monkeypox,” London Breed, the mayor of the city, announced.

“This declaration will go into effect starting Aug. 1 and will allow us to prepare and dedicate resources to prevent the spread.”

The declaration is a legal document that allows authorities to mobilize city resources, streamline staffing, and coordinate agencies across the city, as well as speed up emergency planning and allow for future reimbursement by the state and federal governments, she said in a statement.

The move also raises awareness in San Francisco about how to stop the spread of monkeypox, Breed added.

The city has at least 281 cases out of about 800 in California and about 4,907 across the United States as of late July 28—including probable cases—according to data from San Francisco’s health department and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

San Francisco Mayor London Breed speaks during a news conference outside of Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital in San Francisco, Calif., on March 17, 2021. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Cases of monkeypox have increased in California since late June—the end of Pride Month.

“San Francisco is an epicenter for the country. Thirty percent of all cases in California are in San Francisco,” said San Francisco Public Health Officer Dr. Susan Philip.

San Francisco shut down its primary monkeypox vaccination clinic earlier this week after it ran out of doses, saying it had only received 7,800 doses of a requested 35,000.

“That is not nearly enough, and the reality is we are going to need far more than 35,000 vaccines to protect our LGBTQ community and to slow the spread of this virus,” Breed said.

A study published in the Journal of New England Medicine on July 21—the first major peer-reviewed study of monkeypox infections—indicated that a vast majority of people with monkeypox were gay or bisexual men, and a vast majority of the infections were suspected to have occurred through sexual activity in 95 percent of those infected. Researchers had observed monkeypox infection across 16 countries between April and June, when cases began to be reported in countries outside of Africa.

“San Francisco was at the forefront of the public health responses to HIV and COVID-19, and we will be at the forefront when it comes to monkeypox,” said state Sen. Scott Wiener, a Democrat who represents San Francisco.

“We can’t and won’t leave the LGTBQ community out to dry.”

Mature, oval-shaped monkeypox virions (L), and spherical immature virions (R), obtained from a sample of human skin associated with the 2003 prairie dog outbreak. (Cynthia S. Goldsmith, Russell Regner/CDC via AP)

The San Francisco mayor clarified that officials “are not implementing behavior restrictions or other measures like we did under COVID.”

“This is all about having the resources and ability to move quickly to deploy these resources,” Breed said.

She said the emergency declaration “must be adopted by the Board of Supervisors within a week,” adding on July 28 that the board “has agreed to convene an emergency meeting next week to consider this emergency.”

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on July 23 declared the monkeypox outbreak a global health emergency, citing the global growth in cases—even though a special advisory committee did not reach a consensus on whether to declare the global health emergency.

end

How could this be possible?  Biden tests positive again for COVID?

Biden Tests Positive For ‘Rebound’ COVID, Goes Back Into Isolation

SATURDAY, JUL 30, 2022 – 03:00 PM

One day after hanging around a bunch of CEOs (without a mask), fully vaccinated President Joe Biden has once against tested positive for COVID-19 in a so-called ‘rebound’ case after being treated with Paxlovid, his physician said in a Saturday letter.

Unlike Dr. Anthony Fauci, however, Biden reportedly “continues to feel quite well,” according Dr. Kevin O’Connor. “This being the case, there is no reason to reinitiate treatment at this time, but we will obviously continue close observation.”

O’Connor added that Biden tested negative on Tuesday evening, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday morning before testing positive again on Saturday.

end

iii)a.  USA economic stories

What a mess! carriers unable to pay drivers after the large COREFUND CAPITAL closes after a huge dispute between two brothers

(Hawes/Freightwaves)

Carriers Unable To Pay Drivers, Buy Fuel After CoreFund Capital Closes

SUNDAY, JUL 31, 2022 – 11:30 AM

By Clarisssas Hawes of FreightWaves

Hundreds of small-business truckers who use CoreFund Capital to factor their accounts receivable are struggling to stay afloat after the Weatherford, Texas-based company abruptly closed its doors 10 days ago and fired its entire staff over a legal spat between two brothers.

However, late Thursday, Parker County, Texas, District Judge Graham Quisenberry appointed a receiver on behalf of CoreFund, which may help truckers gain access to funds more quickly.

Attorneys, rival factoring companies and brokerages have received numerous calls from some of CoreFund’s approximately 350 trucking clients, including many owner-operators, who are desperate for answers and may be forced to close their doors if they can’t pay their drivers or purchase fuel.

Tony Ginevra, director of operations for Florida-based John J. Jerue Truck Broker, works with a network of 50,000 trucking companies, including 140 carriers in his database that factor their receivables through CoreFund Capital. He’s concerned about not being able to pay these carriers since he’s had no communication with any of CoreFund’s executives.

“I had a carrier trying to get us to pay him directly — he’s called me a dozen times today — but there’s nothing we can do until we have a notice of assignment from CoreFund that this trucking company has gone to them for funding and CoreFund sends us an invoice, which we will pay the same day,” Ginevra told FreightWaves. “I feel for these guys because many are living load to load right now, but we legally can’t pay the carriers directly because we have to pay CoreFund first.”

Brokerages and factoring companies say they are powerless to help the truckers until CoreFund releases the UCC-1 (Uniform Commercial Code) liens filed by the factoring company against carriers’ assets. Also needed is a revocation of a notice of assignment that is sent to the truckers’ customers instructing them to make a payment to CoreFund, which in turn pays them.

Receiver to the rescue?

Some brokerages and other factoring companies say the newly appointed receiver may be crucial.

“I spoke to a carrier yesterday out of New York that submitted three invoices to CoreFund last week and no one responded to her so she’s stuck in limbo,” Ashley Dellinger, vice president of sales and marketing of Utah-based Express Freight Finance, told FreightWaves. “We’re hoping the receiver that’s appointed will be able to get them released from CoreFund because until then, we can’t help them.”

Late Thursday, Jason Medley, partner with law firm Spencer Fane in its Houston office, notified some of the affected trucking companies and factoring companies that the judge appointing a receiver is a positive step.

“This means that the receiver is able to act on behalf of CoreFund to release the UCC1s and notices of assignment and make payout arrangements,” Medley said via email. “While the effect is not immediate — the receiver still needs to officially step into the process by paying a bond, etc. — the court’s order moves us much closer to addressing the needs of CoreFund’s factoring customers.”

The International Factoring Association is one of Medley’s clients. He currently represents about 50 trucking companies and said the number is “climbing every minute.”

Prior to the judge appointing a receiver, Medley had a chance to speak at Wednesday’s hearing regarding a civil lawsuit filed by CoreFund Capital, which seeks a restraining order and temporary injunction, as well as application for appointment of an attorney for trust beneficiaries against Frost Bank, TBK Bank, Chris Wakefield and Meir “Shim” Sacks.

“I told the judge that when elephants fight, the whole world shakes,” Medley told FreightWaves. “Whatever prompted this lawsuit led to a shutdown of their operations so CoreFund can’t get money from its lenders and it can’t lend money to its truckers. These truckers need to leave CoreFund now.”

In the meantime, Medley said his firm was working to contact the receiver to “expedite the process as much as possible.”

What we know about the Sacks brothers’ feud

According to court documents, Meir “Shim” Sacks founded CoreFund Capital in 2014. CoreFund is a wholly owned subsidiary of GMA Fund LLC, the holding company for the Shim Sacks Family Legacy Trust, which he created in October 2014.

As part of the original trust, Shim Sacks granted special power of appointment to his brother, Yaakov “Jacob” Sacks.

According to court filings, Jacob Sacks “exercised this special power of appointment he holds” under the original trust and transferred the trust’s assets, including the holding company that owns CoreFund, to a new trust he created, the Sacks Family Grandchildren’s Trust, on July 12. 

While the old trust only named Shim Sacks’ children as beneficiaries, the new trust lists both brothers’ children as beneficiaries. It also names CoreFund’s longtime president, Bonnie Castillo, as the sole manager of CoreFund.

It’s unclear why Jacob Sacks created the new trust. The law firm representing him and CoreFund, Warren Fonville of Fort Worth, Texas, did not respond to FreightWaves’ request seeking comment.

As of publication, FreightWaves’ calls to Jacob Sacks, Shim Sacks and Chris Wakefield, listed as the chief of staff of CoreFund, also had not been returned. 

CoreFund executives have not issued a statement about the factoring company’s future. However, former employees with access to CoreFund’s Facebook account have been posting updates to its panicking trucking customers since no one has responded to their calls or emails.

Todd Waller, former business development officer at CoreFund Capital, was among those fired. He issued the following statement about the factoring company’s ongoing lawsuit on LinkedIn. 

“Our staff is hurting and struggling with this as we were completely blindsided,” Waller wrote. “Additionally, we are saddened and sickened by how this is impacting our clients who we consider family and we are legally unable to do anything to help as they struggle to stay in business.”

end

Amazon cuts a huge 100,000 employees from the workforce this quarter.

This kind of tells us the state of the USA economy

(zerohedge)

Amazon Cuts 100,000 Employees From Workforce In A Single Quarter

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 06:55 AM

Amazon, one of the largest tech employers in the world, has revealed that it is now hiring at the slowest pace since 2019 and has cut over 100,000 employees globally in the June quarter, likely due to the dramatic economic slowdown since 2021.  It is the largest workforce cut in a single quarter in the history of the company.  The layoffs are part of an increasing trend of protecting the bottom line within the tech industry.  The cuts likely played a large role in Amazon’s recent revenues beat and their rosy profit projections for the third quarter, though it still lost a net $2 billion in the second quarter. 

The more employees lose their jobs, the more healthy the company appears to be when shareholders examine quarterly earnings; it is inevitable that layoffs will continue.  There have been over 30,000 job cuts by tech companies in the US in the past few months alone, and unemployment claims have climbed to 8-month highs.

The covid pandemic lockdowns and subsequent stimulus checks created an enormous artificial boost for tech companies like Amazon in 2020 and 2021, but the $6 trillion stimulus has since circulated out of the pockets of most Americans and globally the lockdowns did incredible harm to existing economic stability.  Demand for peripheral goods is in steep decline as inflation in necessities continues to rise.  In 2022, the stagflation crisis is leading to imminent demand destruction.

This news comes as multiple companies are announcing layoffs and hiring freezes.  Google parent Alphabet Inc. is instituting a hiring freeze.  Apple is slowing its hiring this year.  Coinbase is cutting 18% of it’s staff.  Microsoft has announced a hiring slowdown.  Netflix has cut at least 500 employees recently, not including contractor cuts.  Peloton is firing over 2800 workers so far this year.  Online brokerage Robinhood terminated 9% of its workforce in April. Twitter cut 30% of its talent acquisition team this past month but declined to give a specific number of layoffs.  The list goes on and on.  

The steep reversal from only a year ago highlights the swift nature of the economic downturn and also shows how dependent the tech industry is on consumers having large amounts of expendable income.  When the financial environment gets tight, Big Tech corporations are among the first to feel the crunch because most of them offer very little in terms of necessities.

end

CALIFORNIA/WILD FIRES

McKinney Fire In Northern California Becomes Largest Of Season

MONDAY, AUG 01, 2022 – 02:12 PM

Firefighters battle an out-of-control Northern California wildfire near the Oregon state line, growing into the state’s largest wildfire this season in just a few days. 

The McKinney fire exploded in size late Sunday to more than 52,498. The fire remained at 0% contained, consuming dry vegetation in Klamath National Forest, near the city of Yreka. 

Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, declared a state of emergency on Saturday. He said the wildfire “threatened critical infrastructure” and “destroyed homes” after breaking out on Friday. 

The fire was “intensified and spread by dry fuels, extreme drought conditions, high temperatures, winds, and lightning storms,” Newsom added. 

“These conditions can be extremely dangerous for firefighters, as winds can be erratic and extremely strong, causing fire to spread in any direction,” forest service officials said.

California Office of Emergency Services said more than 2,000 residents were under evacuation orders, and 200 were under evacuation warnings. Most of the evacuation warnings were in Siskiyou County. 

The Siskiyou County sheriff tweeted: “Surrounding areas should be ready to leave if needed. Please don’t hesitate to evacuate.” 

END  

iii b) USA/North American logjams/supply issues

Hawaii electricity prices to skyrocket after they received their final shipment of coal

(zerohedge)

Hawaii Electricity Prices To Skyrocket As Final Shipment Of Coal Arrives

SUNDAY, JUL 31, 2022 – 03:00 PM

Hawaii is receiving its final shipment of coal this week, which Gov. David Ige called a huge step forward in the state’s transition to clean energy. What he meant was that local are about to pay a lot more for basic essentials.

A law put in place a couple of years ago will finally shut down the island’s last coal burning power plant. And since coal is the dirtiest * but cheapest – source of power for Oahu, it means that all else equal, power prices are about to skyrocket.

“In its time, coal was an important resource for Hawai‘i and I’d like to thank the workers who have run our last remaining coal plant,” Ige said in a statement. “Renewable energy projects to replace coal are coming online with more on the way.”

“Even as we face challenges in making this transition, it’s the right move for our communities and planet. Most importantly, it will leave Hawaiʻi a better place for our children and grandchildren.”

So noble, Scandinavian teenagers would approve: there is just one problem: as KHON2’s Always Investigating reportsreplacement power projects are behind schedule due to unexpected global events with supply chain issues, so Oahu residents should prepare to pay even more for electricity this fall. In other words, Europe’s catastrophic experience with the “Green transition” where an entire continent moved to “energy alternatives” some 30 years before it was ready to replace fossil fuels, is coming to at least one American state.

In the meantime, consumers can either cut back on power, try solar and batteries, or pay more for oil-generated power — which costs as much as five times more than coal.

The Kapolei plant has been Oahu’s largest single generator for three decades, meeting about 16% of the island’s peak electricity demand. Its closure on Sept. 1 means eliminating 180 megawatts of power, or about one-tenth of what Oahu needs. There is no ready replacement for this source of energy which is about to go offline.

But wait, it gets funnier: one year ago, Hawaii was stunned to learn that the “green facility” which is replacing the Kapolei coal plant,  the  185-MW Kapolei Energy Storage Facility, will be charging its “enormous battery” … with oil! In other words, Hawaiians will be trading one fossil fuel (coal) for another, albeit one far more expensive. Or as the chair of PUC, Jay Griffin, complained, Hawaiians are “going from cigarettes to crack.”

If there is not enough solar, wind, or battery storage energy to replace the AES plant, HECO would have to use oil instead to charge things like the upcoming 185-megawatt Kapolei Energy Storage Facility,” Pacific Business News reported.

It’s not a matter of “if,” however. The reality is there’s not enough wind, solar, or battery storage to replace the AES plant. Hawaiian Electric has made this quite clear in recent documents, noting that it would not be able to meet its year-two renewable target (75 percent) for “more than a decade.” – Source FEE Stories

Confused? Here is the simplified schematic:

  1. Oahu is permanently shutting down its final coal plant which provides 10-20% of the island’s energy
  2. Its replacement is an energy storage facility which however will need oil to charge its battery
  3. Hawaii is effectively replacing dirty coal power with just as dirty oil power, which however is far more expensive.

Translation:another brilliantly executed “green” revolution, or as FEE put it:

The project is a wonderful demonstration of why we should be wary of giving central planners more power over energy security. It’s an example of a phenomenon explained by Ludwig von Mises: that government policies often have exactly the opposite effect of what was intended.

In an address delivered before the University Club in New York in 1950, the economist explained how government policies often backfire in ways that are predictable. Here is an example he offered:

“The government believes that the price of a definite commodity, e.g., milk, is too high. It wants to make it possible for the poor to give their children more milk. Thus it resorts to a price ceiling and fixes the price of milk at a lower rate than that prevailing on the free market. The result is that the marginal producers of milk, those producing at the highest cost, now incur losses. As no individual farmer or businessman can go on producing at a loss, these marginal producers stop producing and selling milk on the market. They will use their cows and their skill for other more profitable purposes. They will, for example, produce butter, cheese or meat. There will be less milk available for the consumers, not more.”

These outcomes are of course contrary to the intentions of lawmakers, Mises pointed out. They wanted to make it easier for people to purchase milk, not reduce the supply of milk. But the result is the same, he observed, and that is the lesson.

So what can we do about it at home besides getting ready to write bigger checks to Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO)?

HECO vice president Jim Kelly suggests to “really be embracing the idea of conservation,” especially during peak hours. Between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m., don’t be cranking on the air conditioner, taking long showers, running the oven, or whatever else that requires electricity and water. And while blaming Putin might provide a few minutes of gratification, it won’t do anything for the accelerated depletion of your bank account.

end

SWAMP STORIES

King report

The King Report August 1, 2022 Issue 6812Independent View of the News
ESUs opened sharply higher on Thursday night due to Apple, Amazon, and July performance gaming.  They traded sideways with a slight upward bias until they tanked 26 handles from 6:50 ET until 9:34 ET.
 
The usual suspects then juiced ESUs 40 handles higher by the end of the first hour of NYSE trading.  Then, Old-World traders began to liquidate holdings for the weekend.  ESUs sank 30 handles by 11:33 ET.  It was time for New-World traders to manipulate stuff higher to game July performance.
 
ESUs relentlessly marched higher until the daily high of 4144.00 appeared at 15:50 ET.  ESUs and stocks then receded into the close on trader liquidation for the weekend.
 
Bonds sank during early European trading.  USUs hit a low of 142 10/32, -27/32, at 6:04 ET.  They then commenced a determined rally that ended at 14:49 ET when USUs hit 144 11/32.  They then tumbled to 143 9/32 at 15:56 ET on liquidation for the weekend.
 
Energy commodities went postal to the upside from early European trading until about 11:00 ET.  They then sank, rescinding most of their rallies, but they still closed solidly positive for the day.  Precious metals rallied sharply and are trying to break out of a 3.5 month decline from their March peaks.
 
BBG: Nasdaq 100 rises 13% in July for its best month since April 2020 https://trib.al/HQrBbXt
 
Shock July Stock Rally Was a Monster the Fed May Regret SeeingFinancial conditions have eased despite supersized Fed hikesFed may have to ‘bring the party to a halt’ very soon: NuveenSurging stocks complicate the goal of subduing inflation… the equity and bond rallies helped loosen US financial conditions, which clocked in at -0.46 compared to a -0.79 reading in March…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-29/shock-july-stock-rally-was-a-monster-the-fed-may-regret-seeing
 
We warned that Fed officials might have to walk back Powell’s dovishness.  It ignited rabid buying of stuff that could stymie inflation reduction.  After the close on Friday, Kashkari did the walk back.
 
Kashkari Says Fed Still ‘Long Way’ From Backing Off Hikes: NYT 4:32 p.m. ET
I’m surprised by the markets’ interpretation The committee is united in our determination to get inflation back down to 2 percent, and I think we’re going to continue to do what we need to do until we are convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2 percent — and we are a long way away from that… I don’t know what the bond market is looking at in reaching that conclusion.”… the bar would be “very, very high” to lower rates… “We know we have a job to do, and we’re committed to doing it.” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/29/business/economy/neel-kashkari-federal-reserve.html
 
Summers Says Powell’s Call on Neutral Fed Rate ‘Indefensible’ (Friday 12:30 ET)
Jay Powell said things that, to be blunt, were analytically indefensible,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week”… “There is no conceivable way that a 2.5% interest rate, in an economy inflating like this, is anywhere near neutral… Powell said in late 2018 that the Fed’s rate had reach neutral (2.5%) – when inflation was running just below 2%.  “How he could be saying the same thing today, when the inflation rate is where it is, is inexplicable to me…  If you think it is neutral, you are misjudging the posture of policy in a fundamental way… It’s the same kind of, to be blunt, wishful thinking that got us into the problems we have now, with the use of the term ‘transitory.’”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-29/summers-says-powell-s-call-on-neutral-fed-rate-indefensible
 
@CheddarFlow: SPX 2000 and 2008 declines compared to right now, per Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/CheddarFlow/status/1552798557169655808
 
NY Mayor Eric Adams refutes Biden, says US is in recession and ‘Wall Street is collapsing’ https://trib.al/0YS55kT
 
All-time Joe: Biden polls lower than any modern president, Gallup finds https://trib.al/99MhYwl
Nearly 60% of Americans disapprove of President Biden’s job performance, the lowest rating of any modern president… The Democrat’s approval sunk to a new low of 38% in the latest Gallup survey, released Friday based on surveys done from July 5-26… (But abortion was going to save him!)
 
@Cernovich: Wikipedia changed the definition of recession to favor the Biden regime, and then locked the page.  https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1552793864821284864
 
WaPo: Is the U.S. economy about to slip on a banana?
The Republican State Leadership Committee’s Twitter account accused the Biden administration of “gaslighting Americans and changing the definition of a recession.”…
     In 1978, Kahn… in charge of President Jimmy Carter’s inflation-fighting efforts — said that failure to get soaring prices under control could lead to a “deep, deep depression.” Carter’s aides, perturbed at the possible political fallout, instructed him never to say that word, or “recession,” again…  Kahn puckishly said the nation was in “danger of having the worst banana in 45 years.”  Kahn’s quip endures because it implicitly conveyed a nuanced truthIt is wrong for a president to deny obvious reality, but at the same time… there really is no pure, objective definition of “recession.”…  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/27/united-states-economy-recession/
 
WaPo (12/3/78): Yes, We’ll Have No Banana
The economist Alfred Kahn… has taken to using “banana” for the word “recession.” The reason, he amiably explains, is that references to recessions seem to make people nervous and irritable… one of the people made most irritable is his employer, President Carter…
    The definition of a recession is, incidentally, a contraction of the economy — a decline in the gross national product — in two consecutive quarters of a year… There are things that a government can do to postpone a recession for a time. But all of those things are inflationary. Since a high inflation rate makes recessions more destructive than ever, that would be a wantonly bad choice…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1978/12/03/yes-well-have-no-banana/ff66f487-7e1a-4579-a199-5750373405c9/
 
A recession by any other name is still not very rosy    Nov. 19, 1991
“Depression” itself was coined by Herbert Hoover. He thought it sounded better than the word then in use: “panic.”… Brookings political scientist James Sundquist points out that until Hoover came along, presidents paid no heed to economic crisesEconomics was something of concern to the private sector, not the government, in those days… (After the Great Depression, economists used ‘recession’)
    The reason presidents avoid the subject is obvious, according to Amy Davis, an economic historian at Purdue University: “Once you predict a recession it is not hard for it to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.”… https://www.tampabay.com/archive/1991/11/19/a-recession-by-any-other-name-is-still-not-very-rosy/
 
Manchin-Schumer spending bill will have ‘indistinguishable’ effect on inflation: Penn Wharton
Democrats are pitching their newest health and climate spending bill as an inflation-fighting measure, but a new analysis published Friday suggests the legislation will actually do little to combat higher prices… Penn Wharton Budget Model…”The Act would very slightly increase inflation until 2024 and decrease inflation thereafter…These point estimates are statistically indistinguishable from zero, thereby indicating low confidence that the legislation will have any impact on inflation.”…  https://t.co/uglwbFGo42
 
GOP Sen. @marcorubio: The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation finds the democrats new climate “deal” will NOT be funded by millionaires: It will be a $16.7 billion tax increase on Americans making less $200K =50% of tax increases come out of people making less than 400K  https://t.co/nxueLxrsCt
 
Seventeen Senate RINOs voted with Dems to lavish tens of billions of dollars on US semiconductor firms: $52B directly and billions more in tax credits.  Now, some RINOs are whining that Senate Dem leaders hoodwinked and double crossed them. 
 
Republicans who voted for China bill charge Manchin flip-flopped & lied on spending and tax hike measure – Senators furious new spending deal announced after they voted for expensive China bill
    Republicans were threatening to kill the China competition bill…  as long as Democrats continued working on passing a party-line social policy bill via reconciliation. But top Republicans, including Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, green-lighted the China bill after Manchin, D-W.Va., made a statement appearing to pour cold water on efforts to include climate, energy and tax provisions in the legislation.
     But just hours after the Senate cleared the China bill, also known as CHIPS, Wednesday, Manchin and Schumer, D-N.Y., announced a package with all those provisions, including more than $400 billion in spending and $739 billion in tax increases… https://t.co/nfY4G9NqUE
 
The Senate GOP Got Played – Manchin is being Manchin, but Republicans helped him do it.
GOP Senators now look like tourists who paid $300 from LaGuardia for a taxi to their Manhattan hotel…
    Republicans have co-signed some $1.28 trillion in new non-defense spending this Congress, while they now stand helplessly by as Democrats pass another $433 billion in spending, plus new drug price controls. Republican hopes of retaking the Senate in November were already fading thanks to Donald Trump’s support for weak candidates, and this legislative humiliation won’t help… – WSJ Editorial Board  https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-republicans-got-played-climate-bill-tax-spending-joe-manchin-chuck-schumer-11659042305
 
McConnell is ineptly addled or complicit.  Mitch tasked the sappy Cornyn to cooperate with Dems on a gun bill.  Schumer must lick his chops when he sees Cornyn is the GOP point man on legislation.
 
McConnell says he has directed Cornyn to engage with Democrats on a ‘bipartisan solution’ on gun violence   https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/26/politics/mcconnell-cornyn-democrats-bipartisan-effort-gun-violence/index.html
 
An inflation gauge that is closely tracked by the Federal Reserve jumped 6.8% (PCE Deflator) in June from a year ago, marking the biggest annual increase in four decadeshttps://t.co/IlKqc3192M
 
June PCE Deflator 1.0% m/m, 0.9% exp; 6.8% y/y; PCE Core 0.6% m/m, 0.5% exp; 4.8% y/y, 4.7% exp
June Personal Income 0.6%, 0.5% exp; Spending 1.1%, 0.9% exp
 
@zerohedge: Consumer is dunzo: Personal Savings Rate collapses to 5.1%, lowest since August 2008
Entering the recession with zero cash buffer  https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1552997602630803456
 
@WSJecon: The employment-cost index, a measure of wages and benefits for civilian workers, rose 1.3% in the second quarter, a near-record pace that will keep pressure on historically high inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-employers-labor-costs-inflation-q2-2022-11659061404
 
Employment costs up 5.1% in second quarter, well above pace seen as consistent with 2% inflation
Wages rose 1.6% in the second quarter, up from 1.3% in the prior three months. Wages make up 70% of total compensation. Year-over-year, wages rose at a 5.7% rate, compared with a 5% rate in the first three months of the year.  Benefits increased 1.3% in the April-June quarter after a 1.9% gain in the prior quarter… Year-on-year, benefits rose at a 5.3% rate, up from 4.1% in the first quarter https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-employment-cost-pressures-remain-hot-in-second-quarter-11659098893
 
@SuburbanDrone: Real wages are down almost -3%, the most in 20 years. So, it’s fortunate GDP is only down ~1%.  So far, consumers are digging into savings. But, soon that gambit will implode.  The chart Wall Street doesn’t want us to see. Wages / CPIhttps://t.co/Npc6ROJpuY
 
@CNBC: After inflation, people making the U.S. minimum wage are earning less now than 60 years ago. https://t.co/YaSmmwEIyh
 
Chicago PMI continues to soften in July, falls to lowest level in almost two years
Factory activity index drops to 52.1 vs. consensus of 55
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-continues-to-soften-in-july-falls-to-lowest-level-in-almost-two-years-11659102951
 
UM July Sentiment 51.5, 51.1 exp; Current Conditions 58.1, exp. 57.1; Expectations 47.3, exp. 47.5; 1-yr inflation expectations 5.2%, exp. 5.2%; 5-10 yr. inflation expectations 2.9%, Exp. 2.8%
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
 
The Q2 GDP Report shows the hokey ‘Intellectual Property’ component added 0.47 percentage points to GDP, and exports added 1.92 percentage points (SPR release?).  Gross Private Domestic Investment subtracted 2.73 percentage points; Goods subtracted 1.08 percentage points with Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption subtracting .65.   Services added 1.78 percentage points with healthcare contributing .40, Food services & accommodation .60, and Gross output of nonprofit institutions .30. (Table 2).  https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-07/gdp2q22_adv.pdf
 
BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 – Technical Note
Within exports… the leading contributors to the increase were industrial supplies and materials (notably petroleum and products)… (SPR related?)  Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (AKA ‘Core GDP’), which measures private demand in the domestic economy and is derived as the sum of consumer spending and private fixed investment, was unchanged in the second quarter after increasing 3.0 percent in the first quarter (This is a huge negative!) PS – The BEA left Gross Domestic Income blank (Table 1, Table 3). https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-07/tech2q22_adv.pdf
 
The final demand measure pulls out inventory changes from GDP… government spending and net exports… pulling out the quarterly changes can give us a better measure of the underlying growth rate…   https://cepr.net/nerd-talk-growth-trends-and-final-sales-to-private-domestic-purchasers/
 
Numerous economists cited the 3% (initially 3.7%) jump in Real final sales to private domestic purchasers as the key reason that that Q1 GDP of -1.6% understates the strength of the US economy.  In Q2, it went to 0%!  In Q4 it was +2.6% (Table 1, Line 32).  Will the usual suspects still say that Real final sales to private domestic purchases is a great indicator of underlying economic strength?
 
Richmond Fed May 10, 2022: GDP Fall Doesn’t Tell All
Domestic demand looks stronger when you smooth out the more volatile components of inventories (which subtracted 0.84 percentage points from annualized growth) and net exports (which subtracted 3.2 percentage points from annualized growth). Real final sales to private domestic purchasers — which measures private demand in the domestic economy and is the sum of consumer spending and private fixed investment — accelerated to 3.7 percent in the first quarter after increasing 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter (see Figure 1 below)…  https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2022/mm_05_10_22
 
Weak Headline Masks Underlying Resilience in First Quarter GDP   April 28, 2022
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key measure of private domestic demand, rose at a more robust 3.7 percent annualized rate in the first quarter…
https://www.aier.org/article/weak-headline-masks-underlying-resilience-in-first-quarter-gdp/
 
Q4 2021, Inventories surged $1193.2B and contributed 5.32 percentage points to the 6.9% GDP (Table 1, Line 40).  In Q1, Inventory increased $188.5B but subtracted .35 percentage points from GDP.   In Q2, Inventory increased $81.6B.  Though Inventory subtracted 2.01 from Q2 GDP, there is a huge inventory overhang in the US, especially with Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers at 0%.
 
FT: We’ve never seen anything like this’: US retailers compete to clear stock
https://www.ft.com/content/7f5b27f3-acc3-4913-a4a0-c58636c62f48
 
Except for Q1 1987 (Probably due to the Louvre Accord), each time Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers has turned negative, the US was in recession.
 

Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers (AKA ‘Core GDP’) SAAR Q/Q
 
Due to Reagan and Volcker, the dollar soared in the early ‘80s, crimping US exports.  In July 1985, the Plaza Accord was struck to facilitate a decline in the dollar vs. the mark and yen.  Unfortunately, the decline went postal.  So, solons created the Louvre Accord in February 1987 to halt the dollar tumble. 
 
What made the Louvre Accord such a historic document was its focus not only on realignments but on the coordination of macroeconomic fiscal and monetary policy for all nations. France agreed to reduce its budget deficits by 1% of GDP and cut taxes by the same amount for corporations and individuals. Japan would reduce its trade surplus and cut interest rates. Great Britain would agree to reduce public expenditures and reduce taxes. Germany, the real object of this agreement… would agree to reduce public spending, cut taxes for individuals and corporations, and keep interest rates low. The United States would agree to reduce its fiscal 1988 deficit to 2.3% of GDP from an estimated 3.9% in 1987, reduce government spending by 1% in 1988 and keep interest rates low…
https://www.forexabode.com/forum/forex-education-forum-f59/the-louvre-accord-the-fight-against-dollar-deflation-t7471.html
 
On Saturday, Biden tested positive for covid again and will enter “strict isolation.”
https://twitter.com/ShelbyTalcott/status/1553449245868449794
 
Neutralization Escape by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Subvariants BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5
These data show that the BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 subvariants substantially escape neutralizing antibodies induced by both vaccination and infection… (Vaxes are ineffective against recent strains!!!)
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2206576
 
Dr. Avi Dascalu, MD, PhD @AviDascalu: 1. Fauci had a “rare” rebound after Paxlovid and retested positive.  2. Biden had a “rare” rebound after Paxlovid and retested positive. What a coincidence. Rebound is claimed at 1%, with a new risk factor identified: high level civil servant.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
July performance gaming boosted stocks and bonds (But bonds rescinded most of the rally)
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The possibility of inflation staying elevated or increasing later has increased due to Powell
Energy commodities and precious metals rallied; they are trying to breakout to the upside
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Minn Fed Pres Kashkari, ex-uber dove, commenced the Fed walk back of Powell’s dovish remarks
Will more Fed officials walk back Powell’s dovish insinuations?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4116.55
Previous session High/Low4140.15; 4079.22
 
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Chinese FM spox accuses WH of lying about Biden bringing up genocide, forced labor on call w/ Xi: ZHAO: “…. pure lies… WH spokesperson said the issues of genocide and forced labor were mentioned in the call last night, that is false information” (Release the transcript!)
 
World Economic Forum calls to reduce private vehicles by eliminating ‘ownership’
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/world-economic-forum-calls-reduce-private-vehicles-by-eliminating-ownership
 
Baby formula crisis WORSENS as out-of-stock levels hit 30%: Parents accuse Biden of forgetting about them and mom struggling to feed twins says ‘I’m sure these politicians’ babies eat’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11063829/Baby-Formula-crisis-starts-getting-WORSE-parents-accuse-Biden-forgetting-them.html
 
Hershey: ‘We will not be able to fully meet consumer demand’ for Halloween
A scarcity of raw ingredients and workers… strained supply chains…
https://news.yahoo.com/hershey-shortage-halloween-and-christmas-171636774.html
 
BBC’s @MarkUrban01: Tensions are very high currently between Serbia and Kosovo… It’s possible that Serbia has upped the ante as part of a geopolitical move coordinated with Russia.
 
Sky News’s @haynesdeborah: This is significant. NATO says it’s ready to intervene “if stability is jeopardized in the North of Kosovo.” https://twitter.com/NATO_KFOR/status/1553852357972316160/photo/1
 
Joe Manchin becomes only 31st newsmaker ever to appear on all five major networks’ Sunday shows to insist his spending bill will NOT raise taxes… (It does.)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11066469/Manchin-goes-bat-deal-31st-newsmaker-appear-five-networks-Sunday-shows.html
 
@JunkScience: The Democrat climate bill won’t reduce energy costs. There is no record of wind/solar/EVs reducing energy costs. Just look at Germany… after spending almost $1 trillion over the past 20 years, Germans pay the highest electricity costs in the world.
 
@TomFitton: @Sen_JoeManchin is now redefining hundreds of billions in tax increases to give money to the rich to buy new cars as “closing tax loopholes.”
 
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari on CBS’s “Face the Nation” (Sunday) continued to walk back Powel’s neutral rate nonsense: “Inflation…is very concerning… we keep getting inflation readings…and we keep getting surprised. It’s higher than we expect.… It’s spreading out more broadly across the economy… We’re a long way away from achieving and economy that is back at 2% inflation… (Transcript): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neel-kashkari-face-the-nation-transcript-07-31-2022/
 
@MacroAlf: If CPI prints at 0% every single month between now and December (!), we will still finish 2022 with 6.3% YoY inflation. And you talk about pivots…  https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1553878422803210252
 
Today – Will more Fed officials walk back Powell’s deleterious ‘neutral’ comment?  Probably, but they must slowly and gently rebuke Powell to preserve the de minis credibility Jerome has.  Eventually, Powell will have to do a mea culpa; but that cannot occur for a while due to credibility issues and politics.
 
Traders want to play for the usual Monday and start-of-the-month rallies.  However, astute traders recognize that financial solons have begun to walk back Powell’s irresponsible and inimical neutral rate remark, a Dem tax hike is nigh, and the European theatre of war might expand into the Balkans.
 
SPUs hit -19.75 and USUs were -21/32 at 18:45 ET on the above negative developments. 
 
Expected economic data: July SP US Mfg PMI 52.3; July ISM Mfg 52.1, Prices Paid 74.9, New Orders 49, Employment 48.2; June Construction Spending 0.3% m/m
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3922; 100-day MA: 4122; 150-day MA: 4255; 200-day MA: 4346
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,597; 100-day MA: 32,726; 150-day MA: 33,502; 200-day MA: 34,026
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4849.55 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3700 triggers a sell signal
DailyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3939.25 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4070.98 triggers a sell signal
 
Dershowitz: Trump critics ‘stretching the law’ in push to ‘get’ former president
As DOJ comes under fire for strong-arm tactics against Trump supporters, famed Harvard law professor warns current search for criminal charges to pin on Trump could create “dangerous” precedent.
    “The thing most upsetting to me as a liberal Democrat and civil libertarian is how hard they’re searching for a crime,” Dershowitz told Just the News…  ‘It reminds me of [former head of the Soviet secret police] Lavrentiy Beria saying to Josef Stalin, ‘Show me the man, and I’ll show you the crime.'”…
https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/dershowitz-trump-critics-stretching-law-push-get-former-president
 
Advisor to 6 POTUS @Halsrethink: Could just be political stunt but looks to me Pelosi in near end of life yearning for a personal place in history as daring defender of “the American Way”. Seems late stage of life version of “Potomac Fever”, damn the consequences (Trader Nan knows she’s toast after Nov)
 
DC mayor’s call for National Guard to deal with migrant ‘crisis’ sparks outrage from border officials – Both Bowser and New York City Mayor Eric Adams have sounded the alarm about migrants being sent to their cities, with both mayors blaming Arizona and Texas for the influx…
    Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who said the crisis could be called an invasion earlier this year, described Bowser’s comments as “the height of hypocrisy.”  “Shame on all the liberal mayors that did nothing and said nothing while we saw a record amount of people illegally entering into our country, while we saw a record amount of fentanyl and other drugs pouring into our country… They didn’t care, or they ignored it until it literally came to their front door.”… https://t.co/QLJE8buRy5
 
The Left Is Squirming at the GOP’s New Immigration Tactic. It’s Working
Republican governors are adopting a new tactic to deal with record illegal crossings of the United States southern border — send the migrants to the doorstep of President Joe Biden himself, and the cities which describe themselves as “sanctuary cities.”
    Faced with an influx of illegal immigrants straining their city’s resources, the mayors of Washington, D.C, and New York City are turning to the federal government for help… “Mayor Adams should address his frustration with migrants to the root cause: Joe Biden,” Gov. Abbott said, adding that the migrants coming to New York City are not sent by Texas but rather “President Biden’s open border.”
https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/28/gop-immigration-tactic-greg-abbott-doug-ducey/
 
DOJ official named in FBI politicization allegations played role in Lois Lerner IRS scandal
Richard Pilger pushed idea of criminal prosecution of Tea Party groups’ political speech, congressional evidence shows… Richard Pilger, the current chief of the DOJ Elections Crime Branch of the department’s Public Integrity Section…
https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/doj-official-named-fbi-whistleblower-complaint-involved-earlier-lois
 
Prof Behavioral Science @GadSaad: What is a woman? US Supreme Court justice is unable to answer.  What is a recession? Biden economists are unable to answer.  BUT, two-year-olds KNOW when they are transgendered, and climate alarmists KNOW climate realities in 100 years.  Any questions?
 
Oz’s struggles have GOP pitching alternate path to Senate takeover
Oz has been consistently trailing Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman in public polls… In May, Fetterman suffered a stroke. He has not held a public event since then… https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/29/alarm-bell-gop-donors-oz-00048747
 
@tarapalmeri: Since Dr. Oz won the primary in May, there have been questions about his whereabouts as his poll numbers dive… well it turns out he’s been in Ireland and Palm Beach, annoying GOP. Trump not happy either and complaining to Hannity
 
Critics call Oz a ‘carpetbagger’ because he is from New Jersey and moved to PA to run for the Senate.  Exacerbating this negative is an Oz campaign ad reportedly filmed at his New Jersey home.
 
An Oz loss could cost the GOP control of the Senate.  Some wonder if Oz, whose supported liberal causes for most of his professional life, is tanking on purpose.  This will be a huge negative for Trump.
 
Taylor Swift responds to critics after jet tops worst private plane CO2 emissions list: ‘Loaned out’ to others – ‘Carolina’ singer Taylor Swift’s private jet flew 170 times this year, although she’s not on tour
https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/taylor-swift-responds-critics-jet-tops-worst-private-plane-co2-emissions-list-loaned-others
 
@LisaMarieBoothe: None of these people care about the climate. It’s all a rouse for virtue signaling and to control you.
 
@toadmeister: Data from weather stations located away from urban development show there’s been no increase in temperatures across the United States for 17 years, a major blow to supporters of the ruinous Net Zero policyhttps://t.co/PK5sS2iFeD
 
Top Cook County prosecutor abruptly resigns, rips into Kim Foxx
Murphy’s resignation says he has “zero confidence in Foxx’s administration” — and he says he cannot continue to work for an administration he “does not respect.”  He also calls Foxx’s office mission vision and value statements “just a P.R. stunt – words on a page… How many mass shootings do there have to be before something is done? This Administration is more concerned with political narratives and agendas than with victims and prosecuting violent crime. That is why I can’t stay any longer.”…
https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/top-cook-county-prosecutor-abruptly-resigns-rips-into-kim-foxx-report
 
NYT: Fox News, Once Home to Trump, Now Often Ignores Him (McConnell implicated in ban?)
The snubs are not coincidental, according to several people close to Mr. Murdoch’s Fox Corporation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the company’s operations…
    The skepticism toward the former president extends to the highest levels of the company, according to two people with knowledge of the thinking of Mr. Murdoch, the chairman, and his son Lachlan, the chief executive. It also reflects concerns that Republicans in Washington, like Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader, have expressed to the Murdochs about the potential harm Mr. Trump could cause to the party’s chances in upcoming elections, especially its odds of taking control of the Senate..
    A spokesman for Mr. McConnell declined to comment. A spokesman for the Fox Corporation also declined to comment, as did a spokeswoman for Mr. Trump…
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/29/business/media/fox-news-donald-trump-rupert-murdoch.html
 
McConnell being concerned that Trump will cost the GOP control of the Senate is rich.  Mitch and his stooges’ fealty to Schumer and Biden’s agendas is far more harmful to the GOP and the USA.
 
@FaceTheNation: Former President Trump is just as much of a “motivating factor” as President Biden in this midterm election, @SalvantoCBS tells @jdickerson. Republicans “think that former President Trump is fighting for their issues more than their party in Congress.”  (McConnell and his ilk)
https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1553763404988440577
 
@IAPolls2022: CBS NEWS POLL: Younger voters and Turnout: a problem for Dems?  Younger voters (18-29) are the most supportive of Democrats – and the LEAST LIKELY TO TURN OUT. They are LESS likely to be ENTHUSIASTIC (34%) about voting than older voters (65+ 63%, 45-64 53%)
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1553755276226007043
 
IAPolls2022: CBS NEWS POLL: There’s a gender gap on enthusiasm: Women are LESS likely than men to say they’re very ENTHUSIASTIC about votinghttps://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1553758695808434182
 

 

END

Greg Hunter: Interviewing Catherine Austen Fitts

Financial System – Lawless Criminal Control Syndicate – Catherine Austin Fitts

By Greg Hunter On July 30, 2022 In Political Analysis184 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.), says we are at war with the Deep State globalists that want nothing short of total control over all of mankind.  Central bankers want a financial system that is a lawless criminal control syndicate where it’s legal for them to do whatever they want.  It is simply a choice between tyranny and sovereignty, freedom or slavery.  We start with the foundational building block of tyranny, the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) that global bankers want to install in the financial system.  CAF says, “It’s not a currency.  That’s what you need to understand.  What we are talking about is a control system that is going to be implemented in a global coup d’état, and we are in the middle of a global coup d’état.  That’s what is happening right now.  Essentially, if you look at the central bankers, the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) and all the central bankers are trying to create a system where they are completely free of the laws of nation states and governments.  In other words, they are inserting sovereign immunity from all laws and literally trying to create a civilization under the law where they are free to do whatever they want, including, as we know—genocide.”

CAF says to fight back against CBDC is to use cash.  Fitts says, “If you go to Solari.com, you will see something that says, “Cash Every Day.”  Click the big red cap that says, “Make Cash Great Again.”  If you click on that, you will get three videos.  There are two videos I really want your audience to watch.  One is a 56 second video of the BIS general manger Augustin Carstens in October 2020 explaining with CBDC they will have central control and enforce them centrally.  It’s the only time in my life that I saw a central banker be 100% honest.  The second video says “Financial Rebellion,” click it and you’ll get three minutes of a presentation by Richard Werner.  He is certainly the top scholar in the world on central banking. . . .  Richard explains that one of the top central bankers in Europe told him they are planning on chipping all of us.”

CAF says central bankers will ignore the U.S. Constitution, steal all of our assets like cash and gold but especially the land.  CAF contends they won’t be able to do this unless they take our guns and extinguish the Second Amendment.  CAF also talks about what she thinks will happen after the first of this year when it comes to inflation or deflation.

CAF says, “We are at war and we need a war strategy. . . . The ‘Great Reset’ will turn into the ‘Great Resist.”

CAF contends the good news is people are waking up and this evil criminal system can be stopped.  CAF says, “Saint Paul said in Timothy, ‘Just stand and watch the divine go to work.’  They can’t do this.  Did you see what just happened in Ireland?  They tried to go all digital, and they had so many people cancel their accounts, they had to walk it back. . . . One thing the Bible makes clear is it will at times look hopeless, but it won’t be.  That’s why you have to stand.”

There is much more in the 1 hour and 10 min. interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with the Publisher of The Solari Report, Catherine Austin Fitts. (7.30.22)

(https://usawatchdog.com/financial-system-lawless-criminal-control-syndicate-catherine-austin-fitts/)

After the Interview:

There is much free information on Solari.com.

To see the short videos on total control and chip system installed in humans, click here.

You can get way more cutting-edge analysis from Catherine Austin Fitts and “The Solari Report” by becoming a subscriber

See you tomorrow

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