DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.

EXCHANGE: COMEX

COMEX//NOTICES FILED

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,623.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/26/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/28/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

624 H BOFA SECURITIES 7
661 C JP MORGAN 270 175
690 C ABN AMRO 69
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 50
880 H CITIGROUP 207

TOTAL: 389 389
MONTH TO DATE: 11,147

JPMorgan stopped 175/389

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:

389 NOTICES FOR 38,900 OZ //1.2099 TONNES

total notices so far: 11,147 contracts for 1,114,700 oz (34.6765 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 46 NOTICES FILED FOR 230,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 6741 : for 33,705,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $1.75

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 0.737 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 481.194 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1592 CONTRACTS TO 129,935 (ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD LOW) AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.43 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.43) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 1002 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE MINOR SILVER SHORT COVERING.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 305,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//MINOR SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: –115

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 18 days, total 13,810 contracts: 69.059 million oz OR 3.835 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (767 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 69.059 MILLION OZ

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 69.059 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1592 WITH OUR $0.43 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 475 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A// MINOR NET SPEC SHORT COVERINGS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 305,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1117 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.585MILLION OZ AS..

WE HAD 46 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 230,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

WE HAVE 3 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 834 CONTRACTS TO 466,797 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED — -462 CONTRACTS.

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF $17.15//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD MAJOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND //CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 94.100 OZ //NEW STANDING 36.775 TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $17.15 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4037 OI CONTRACTS 12.556 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5333 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 466,335

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4037 CONTRACTS WITH 1296 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5333 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4037 CONTRACTS OR 12.993 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5333) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1296): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 4037 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTROUS QUEUE JUMP OF 94,100 oz. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

54,577 CONTRACTS OR 5,457,700 OZ OR 169.75 TONNES 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3032 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 169.75 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 169.75/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.78% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 169.75 TONNES (SLIGHTLY RISING THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1592 CONTRACT OI TO 129,935 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 475 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 475 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 475 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1592 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 475 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1117 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.585 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.34

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 42.64 PTS OR 1.40% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 5.17 PTS OR 0.03% /The Nikkei closed UP 140.32 PTS OR 0.53% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.44% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1727//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1732// /Oil DOWN TO 77.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.21 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1296 CONTRACTS TO 466,335 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $17.15 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (5333 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 5333 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :5333 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5333 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 4037 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5333 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 1296 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $17.15. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT (36.790),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 36.790 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $17.15) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF4037 CONTRACTS // COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS TRIED TO COVER ON THEIR POSITIONS WITH SOME SUCCESS////// WE HAVE REGISTERED A GOOD GAIN OF 4499 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (36.790 TONNES)…

WE HAD -462 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4037 CONTRACTS OR 403,700 OZ OR 12.556 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 198,509/// fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday 239,877/ fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 27

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	60.726.115 oz BRINKS JPMorgan includes 3 kilobars Brinks
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	389 notice(s) 38900 OZ 1.2099 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	681 contracts 68100 oz 2.118 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	11,147 notices 1,114,700 OZ 34.6785 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

total dealer deposit 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

customer withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Brinks 96.46 o 3 kilobars

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 60,629.655 oz

total: 60,726.115 oz

total in tonnes: 1.88 tonnes

Adjustments: 2

JPM: dealer to customer; 5,121.3470z

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an oi of 1070 contracts having LOST 306 contracts .

We had 1253 notices filed on MONDAY so we gained a whopping 947 contracts or an additional 94,700 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September. This queue jump is actually the Londoners exercising efp’s and tendering them to the banks

for the physical!

October LOST a small 931 contracts LOWERING TO 41,044. Oct is generally a poor active delivery month. It WILL change!! (Look for a dramatically large Oct. delivery month.)

WE HAVE 3 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE ( FRIDAY SEPT 30.2022)

November GAINED 39 contracts to stand at 832

December GAINED 244 contracts UP to 377,673

We had 389 notice(s) filed today for 38900 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 270 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 389 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 175 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,147) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (SEPT 1064 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 389 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,182,800 OZ OR 36.790 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of SEPT.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (11147) x 100 oz+ (1064) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (389} x 100 oz} which equals 1,182,800 oz standing OR 36.790 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 36.775 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR A SEPT ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 2,247,740.885 oz 69.914 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 26,557,244.895 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,127,978.542 OZ (408.33 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,429,266.353 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,880,238 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 338.42 tonnes//rapidly declining

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 27

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,942,792.022 oz Brinks CNT Delaware HSBC JPM Malca
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	761,269.460 oz CNT Loomis Manfra
No of oz served today (contracts)	46 CONTRACT(S) 230,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	34 contracts (170,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	6741 contracts 33,705,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT: 124,174.620 oz

ii) Into Loomis: 599,360.140 oz

iii) Into Manfra:37,734.700 oz

Total deposits: 761,269.460 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 163.469 million oz/315.317million =51.85% of comex

Comex withdrawals: 6

i) Out of Brinks: 509,137.600 oz

ii)Out of CNT 108,545.320 oz

iii)Out of Delaware: 999.952 oz

iv) out of HSBC 339,645.580 oz

v) out of JPMorgan: 605,733.900 oz

vi) Out of Malca: 379,728.659 oz

total withdrawals: 1,942,791.011 oz

adjustments: // 3

DEALER TO CUSTOMER:

i) Brinks 351,232.310 oz

ii) CNT 118,151.018 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 76,552.692 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.999 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 315.317 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 80 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 9 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

52 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 61 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

305,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER LOST 55 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 365 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 44 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 192

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1649 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 114,288

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 46 for 230,000 oz

Comex volumes:77,547// est. volume today// good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 84,973 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6741 x 5,000 oz = 33,705,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(80) and the number of notices served upon today 46 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,741 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (80) – number of notices served upon today (46) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 33,875,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 42.999 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 33.875 MILLION OZ represents 78.17% of that category of silver.

If we add August’s final delivery (to Sept) for silver at 5.51 million oz, we have a total of 39.385 million oz delivered upon with a REGISTERED INVENTORY of 42.99 million oz or 91.59% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:60,617// est. volume today// poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 83,937contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 943.47 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 481.194 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: In the UK gold is living up to expectations

If one reads all the headlines about gold one could be forgiven for thinking that 2022 has been a pretty disastrous year for those banking on the yellow metal to preserve their wealth. This is indeed the case for U.S. gold holders where the gold price has declined around 9%, although that is less than half that seen in most U.S. equities since the beginning of the year – even more in the NASDAQ stocks – but in the case of UK gold holders and holdings valued in pounds sterling it has been a very different story altogether due to the fall in value of the pound against the dollar so far this year. This has been a similar experience in other areas of the world where local currencies have been in strong decline against their U.S. counterpart.In pound sterling terms, the gold price has actually appreciated by no less than 13% while the FTSE all share index for comparison has declined by around 10% over the same period. With the Bank of England following the U.S. Federal Reserve with an aggressive interest rate raising policy to fight inflation, and commenting that the UK economy is probably already in at least a mild recession, one can anticipate further equity price slippage, while the gold price can probably still hold its own making it a continuingly good wealth protection choice for investors.Of course the UK is not the only country where the gold price has been appreciating in the local currency due to the U.S. dollar’s strength – there are many others. We have already reported on the resultant strength of the Australian gold mining sector during the most recent quarter due to the almost A$42 per ounce gold price rise during Q2 resulting from a 6 cent movement in the exchange rate between the U.S. and Australian dollars. With producer costs mostly in Australian dollars the miners mostly saw some good cost benefits. Although these would inevitably close over time, the short term advantages will have been beneficial. (see: Australian annual gold output 317 tonnes – Surbiton).Even in the Euro, which has also seen a strong decline in currency parity against the U.S. dollar, the gold price is up a little over 6% and in the Japanese Yen up 13% – a similar level to the UK. Of the other supposedly ‘strong’ currencies, the gold price is down marginally, though, in the Swiss Franc and the Canadian Dollar, but not by as much as in the U.S. currency. In some of the world’s weaker currencies , however, gold’s appreciation year to date will have been far greater, so its wealth protection capabilities in your own domestic situation depends very much on one’s domicile.All currencies fluctuate – even the mighty U.S. dollar and there is a feeling that it may well be flying too high at present. There is the possibility it may start to come down from its peaks when there is a realisation of quite how much the servicing of the huge U.S. debt position will cost at the higher interest rate levels currently in place, and likely to be further increased.-END-

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Late last night, the Bank of England prepares an emergency intervention as the pound slumps

(Warrington, London telegraph/GATA)

Bank of England prepares emergency intervention as pound slumps to all-time low

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-09-26 10:19 Section: Daily Dispatches

By James Warrington,Tom Rees, and Matt Oliver
The Telegraph, London
Monday, September 26, 2022

The Bank of England is understood to be preparing an intervention after the pound crashed to an all-time low against the dollar.

The Bank is expected to issue a statement as soon as today amid mounting pressure on Governor Andrew Bailey for an intervention to help shore up the economy

This could be a verbal intervention to calm markets or, in a more extreme case, an unscheduled increase in interest rates – which were raised to 2.25pc just last week.

It is understood that a statement today is probable, but not definite. The Bank declined to comment on the nature of any intervention.

The possible intervention comes amid market turmoil after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng last week unveiled the biggest package of tax cuts in 50 years and hinted at more to come. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/26/sterlingpound-dollar-markets-live-news-tax-economy-ftse-100/

* * *

END

Bank of England rules out an emergency rate hike. The pound temporarily falls

(Warrington/London Telegraph)

Pound falls again as Bank of England rules out emergency rate hike

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-09-26 12:10Section: Daily Dispatches

By James Warrington, Tom Rees, and Matt Oliver
The Telegraph, London
Monday, September 26, 2022

The governor of the Bank of England has ruled out an emergency rate rise following a rout in the pound.

In a statement just minutes after a separate one by Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, Andrew Bailey said the bank’s monetary policy committee “will not hesitate to change interest rates by as much as needed” to bring inflation under control.

He added that Threadneedle Street is “monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of financial assets.”

But Bailey stopped short of announcing an emergency meeting of the committee this week and suggested it would stick to its next scheduled gathering in November.

After his statement was released, the pound plunged again, despite having stabilised earlier in the afternoon. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/26/sterlingpound-dollar-markets-live-news-tax-economy-ftse-100/

END

Dave Kranzler on the importance of physical vs paper gold/silver

(Dave Kranzler/GATA)

Dave Kranzler: Paper vs. physical and why the monetary metals should rally

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-09-26 20:06Section: Daily Dispatches

By Dave Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics, Denver
Monday, September 26, 2022

I had an interesting dialogue today with a couple of long-time colleagues about this commentary by Pam and Russ Martens of Wall Street On Parade, headlined “Nowhere to Hide: The Fed-Induced Bubble in Stocks and Bonds Is Blowing Up; Even the Typical Safe Havens of Gold and T Notes Are Losing Money.”

The Martenses do an admirable job exposing the corruption on Wall Street and in the Fed and Congress. But they exhibit a profound misunderstanding of the architecture of the global market for gold and silver.

The Martenses write that “the typical safe havens of gold and T-notes are losing money.” Well, yes, all flavors of fixed-income securities are losing money because that’s how bond math works when interest rates and bond yields rise.

However, the Martenses fail to understand that the gold and silver market is bifurcated. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

Paper vs Physical Gold And Silver And Why The Precious Metals Sector Should Rally

END

Bill Murphy interviewed

(Bill Murphy/GATA)

GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek interviews GATA Chairman Bill Murphy

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-09-26 19:22Section: Daily Dispatches

7:21p ET Monday, September 26, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Interviewed by GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy says the daily bombardment of the gold and silver futures markets has destroyed investor interest in the monetary metals sector. When and if the gold and silver cartels exhaust their supply of real metal needed to control the futures markets, Murphy says, prices will explode.

The interview is 19 minutes long and can be heard at GoldSeek Radio here:

https://goldseek.com/article/goldseek-radio-bill-murphy-after-12-years-frenzy-modern-investors-are-blissfully-unaware

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: URANIUM

Uranium Stocks Rise As German Minister Sees Nuclear Power Plant Extension Increasingly Likely

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 11:41 AM

Uranium stocks advanced on Tuesday after Germany’s economy minister expects to extend the lifespan of the country’s last two nuclear power plants to prevent the risks of rolling blackouts in Europe’s largest economy this winter.

“We are already in a place where the stress test says: It may be necessary to use nuclear power plants for grid security,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a climate conference in Berlin, which Reuters quoted.

Earlier this month, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition approved measures to extend two of the country’s three remaining nuclear power plants through the end of this year and into next if needed, reversing planned shutdowns of the plants.

The reversal comes as the historic energy crisis in Europe worsens by the week. Leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines may indicate Nord Stream 1 is indefinitely shuttered.

Habeck said life extensions of the two nuclear plants are to reduce grid bottlenecks.

“It’s not the amount of electricity, but the distribution of power in the grid,” he said, adding he was concerned by the decline of nuclear power from France.

When asked if lifespan extensions of the two German nuclear plants looked possible, Habeck said: “It is certainly not less likely.”

Habeck’s comments generated bullish sentiment across uranium stocks. Global X Uranium ETF (URA) rose 5%, led by Western Uranium & Vanadium, Isoenergy, Energy Fuels, Global Atomic, Uranium Energy, and Forsys.

Support for nuclear continues to gain momentum. And in Germany’s case, it could help with grid stability ahead of what’s expected to be a cold and dark winter.

Remember we outlined in 2020: Buy Uranium: Is This The Beginning Of The Next ESG Craze.

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/EGGS

US Egg Prices Hit Record High As Resurgent Bird Flu Dents Production

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 04:40 PM

The unseasonable return of avian influenza or bird flu continues to devastate egg production in the US. As a result, retail prices for a dozen eggs at the supermarket have soared to record highs, fueling breakfast inflation.

Bird flu’s return comes as more than 40 million birds were culled in the first half of the year. The disease usually abates during the hot summer months. The current death toll of birds stands at a whopping 45 million and could dramatically worsen, Beth Thompson, South Dakota’s state veterinarian, told Bloomberg. She said the virus is being fueled this fall by the migration of wild birds that fly above commercial farms and leave droppings that get tracked into poultry houses.

Thompson said bird flu “doesn’t seem to have been affected by that hot summer, and in the next probably four to six weeks, we’re going to see those migrating birds coming back from Canada, flying over the US.” She added, “that may increase the viral load that’s out in the environment.”

The culling of millions of birds has dented egg supplies, sending prices sky-high and above 2015 outbreak levels (last major bird flu) to now $3.16 per dozen at the supermarket. Retail prices have doubled since August 2020, straining consumers’ wallets as breakfast inflation soars.

Besides eggs, turkeys sell at a record high price ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

According to Urner Barry data, turkey prices were about $1.82 a pound last week, up from $1.42 last year and $1.01 before the pandemic.

“There’s nothing appearing on the horizon to suggest anything new is going to surface to help ease the supply-side pain for Thanksgiving turkeys,” said Russ Whitman, senior vice president at commodity researcher Urner Barry.

Consumers can’t catch a break as food inflation pressures household budgets. There’s nothing the Federal Reserve can do about supply-side food woes because they can’t print eggs or turkey meat. Instead, the Fed can aggressively send interest rates higher, denting demand though it comes at a risk of causing household discontent.

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1727

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1732

SHANGHAI CLOSED: UP 42.64 PTS OR 1.40%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 5.17 PTS OR .03%

2. Nikkei closed UP 140.32 [PTS OR 0.53%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 113.52/Euro RISES TO 0.96417

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.247/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 144.32/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.052%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.511%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.24%…** DANGEROUS

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.71//

3j Gold at $1637.50silver at: 18.68 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 9/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 58.29//

3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 144.32DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9852– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9499well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.809 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.685 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,48…GETTTING DANGEROUS

Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Jump, Yields And Dollar Slide After Gundlach Says He’s A “Buyer” Of Treasuries

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 07:58 AM

US equity futures and European stocks staged a solid rebound after the recent rout which saw the S&P close at a fresh 2022 low on Monday, as the dollar finally weakened against all of G-10 peers, snapping a five-day gain of new record highs as Treasury yields fell and the pound rebounded from a record low, even as (or perhaps because) Goldman Sachs and BlackRock soured on equities for the short term and Citigroup said bearish positioning continues to rise. As of 715am, S&P Futures traded 43 points, or 1.2% higher, at 3,714 while Nasdaq futures were 1.3% higher. 10Y yields dropped to 3.80% after rising above 3.90% late on Monday.

The dollar gauge dipped but held near the record high set Monday, when a barrage of Fed officials repeated hawkish comments on policy. Meanwhile, European authorities are probing “unprecedented” damage to the Nord Stream pipeline system that transports Russian gas to the region. Benchmark European gas prices climbed as much as 12% on Tuesday, after four days of losses. Oil and gold also rose.

One potential catalyst for the bounce in risk sentiment, and drop in TSY yields, was a tweet from bond king Jeff Gundlach just after midnight EDT, in which we said that “the U.S. Treasury Bond market is rallying tonight. Been a long time. I have been a buyer recently.”

Which is good- it means that there’s at least one major investor who thinks the worst global bond rout in decades is creating a buying opportunity. Now if only all the others shared his sentiment. In any case, his contrarian position was enough to avoid 10Y yields surging above 4% tonight… it remains to be seen if this persists tomorrow and subsequently.

In premarket trading, tech giants such as Apple, Amazon.com and Alphabet advanced more than 1% in premarket trading as US index futures rebounded with Europe’s Stoxx 600. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Cryptocurrency-exposed shares rise in premarket trading, as Bitcoin jumped to breach the closely watched $20,000 level. MicroStrategy (MSTR US) +4.9%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +5.8%, Hut 8 Mining (HUT US) +6.4%, Coinbase (COIN US) +5%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +4.8%.
Shares in 9 Meters Biopharma (NMTR US) jump as much as 40% in premarket trading, with Oppenheimer raising its price target on the biotech to a Street-high after the company reported data from a Phase 2 study of vurolenatide.
US-listed Macau casino and China travel stocks are on track to rise for a second day, after those listed in Hong Kong extended gains on growing optimism in a tourism revival. Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) +1.8% and Melco Resorts (MLCO US) +2% in premarket trading.
Grab (GRAB US) stock climbed 1.1% in premarket trading after the Southeast Asian internet giant said it pursues profitability in 2024, though expects revenue to slow significantly.
Keep an eye on Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP US) as Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to neutral, saying that the company is still executing well in a tough environment, but the risk-reward seems more balanced from here.
Keep an eye on Arcos Dorados (ARCO US) as the stock was initiated with an overweight rating at Barclays, with broker saying that the McDonald’s franchisee is solidly positioned amid headwinds.

Even as dip buyers emerged on Tuesday, global markets remained on edge as investors braced for a heightened risk of global recession. Volatility across markets was also reflected by the risk of future price swings, which reached the highest since the beginning of the pandemic, as shown by a Bank of America index.

Despite today’s bounce, the turmoil in markets shows little sign of turning Fed officials away from hawkish rhetoric. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and her Cleveland counterpart Loretta Mester said additional tightening is needed to rein in stubbornly high inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said the central bank still has a ways to go to control inflation.

“The market is pricing in some Fed increases, but we’re a bit worried that it might not be pricing in everything,” Laila Pence, president of Pence Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “Everyone is nervous.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.6%, also bouncing after a rout, but traded off session highs as risk sentiment took a small hit after Nord Stream said the damage to the Russian gas pipeline is unprecedented, even as the pullback of the dollar gave some relief to assets. Travel, miners and tech are the strongest performing sectors. Italy’s FTSE MIB index fell 0.9% as of 11:16am, the worst performer among major European stock markets on Tuesday, with utilities and financials dragging the benchmark lower. The BTP-bund spread widens as much as 256bps, climbing above 250bps for the first time since May 2020. FTSE MIB had climbed as much as 1.4% in early trading. Worst performers on the index include: Terna -3.9%, Enel -3.4%, FinecoBank -3.3%, Saipem -2.8%, A2A -2.3%, Generali -2.2%, Intesa Sanpaolo -1.3%. UK markets clawed back some losses after a meltdown triggered by the government’s fiscal plan late last week. Here are some of the biggest European movers this morning:

Nexi shares jump as much as 8%, the largest intraday advance in two months, after announcing net revenue and Ebitda growth goals for 2021-2025, which analysts said are ahead of or meet their expectations. Payment peers Adyen, Worldline and Network International also rise
Biffa shares rise as much as 29% after investment firm ECP agrees to buy the UK waste-management company at 410p/share in cash
SSP rises as much as 6.8% after the company boosted its full-year forecast, which Goodbody says should provide some near-term relief
Quadient gains as much as 6.8% after the French postal- and document-services company reported 1H results that Portzamparc says show recovery
Vitrolife drops as much as 20%, its largest intra-day decline since February, as Bank of America-Merrill Lynch initiates coverage calling the share overvalued, while spotting risks on the horizon
Close Brothers shares decline as much as 8.1% after the financial services group reported adjusted operating profit for the full year that missed the average analyst estimate
Akzo Nobel shares slide as much as 3.3% after the company reported preliminary 3Q adjusted operating profit that was well below estimates. Analysts notied that raw material cost inflation is expected to peak in 3Q
Real estate was the worst performing European equity sector for a second day, dragged down by UK and Swedish property stocks. Segro -3.3%, Rightmove -5.1%, LXI REIT -3.3% and Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden -4.7%, Fabege -2.9%, Castellum -2.5%

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose from their lowest level in more than two years as equities in China and Japan advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added as much as 0.5%, poised to snap four-days of losses. Consumer staples and materials led the measure higher as Meituan, BHP and Toyota gave the biggest boosts to the measure. Equities in mainland China were notable winners, with the CSI 300 Index finishing 1.5% higher. Several big mutual funds and brokers were asked by Chinese regulators to refrain from large sales of stocks before the party congress in October, Bloomberg News reported. The Hang Seng Tech Index gained, erasing a loss of as much as 1.8%. The region’s stocks suffered days of selling after the Federal Reserve last week signaled more interest-rate hikes are in store, further strengthening the dollar and tightening global finances. Asian currencies tumbled, raising capital outflow risks and driving key equity gauges lower.

“Although we could see quant traders likely to swoop and trigger a rally, we emphasize that headwinds still remain in place,” including higher bond yields as well as the dollar, Saxo Capital Markets analysts including Redmond Wong wrote in a note. Japan’s stocks were among Tuesday’s biggest gainers as the yen weakened, bolstering the profit outlook for exporters. The Philippine benchmark fell to a two-year low, approaching a bear market, as trading resumed after one-day closure due to a typhoon. Key stock gauges in Hong Kong, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam are all down more than 20% so far this year, along with MSCI’s broadest regional measure. Tech-heavy markets have suffered as rising rates and a stronger dollar fan valuation concerns. Taiwan will evaluate stock-stabilizing measures cautiously as they are a double-edged sword that may help prices but hurt liquidity, the Financial Supervisory Commission chief said Tuesday.

Japanese equities climbed, rebounding from a three day drop, as a weaker yen boosted shares of exporters. The Topix rose 0.5% to close at 1,873.01, while the Nikkei advanced 0.5% to 26,571.87. The yen strengthened slightly after dropping 1% against the dollar Monday. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 1.2%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 1,245 rose and 785 fell, while 139 were unchanged. “As long as US stocks don’t fall drastically, Japanese shares have shown an ability to be resilient,” said Hideyuki Suzuki, a general manager at SBI Securities. Japanese stocks have been supported by low valuations as well as Prime Minister Kishida’s moves to raise the limit for tax breaks on individual investment and relax border controls.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.4% to close at 6,496.20, boosted by gains in mining and energy stocks. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.9% to 11,214.49.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index retreats as all G-10 peers advance and as treasuries gained led by the belly as Fed tightening wagers were pared.

The pound bounced, reclaiming 1.08 against the dollar and trading around where it closed Friday against both the euro and dollar, with measures of implied volatility remaining elevated as investors brace for more swings. Focus on possible action from policy makers and a speech by the Bank of England’s Huw Pill. Overnight volatility in cable traded earlier at 44.76%, its strongest level since March 2020. Gilts traded higher led by the front-end of the curve as traders trimmed BOE tightening bets amid UK currency gains
The euro pared some gains against the US dollar, after Nord Stream reported “unprecedented” damage to the Russian gas pipeline. The common currency still traded above $0.96. Italian bonds extended their underperformance against German peers to a third day, the longest streak since the beginning of the month, as investors continued to digest the right-wing coalition’s election win
Japan’s yield curve bear steepens as the BOJ’s unscheduled bond purchases are dwarfed by a deepening selloff in global debt. Japan’s 20-year bond yields rose to the highest level since 2015 as global debt markets come under increasing pressure due to expectations of further monetary-policy tightening. The yen rises for the first time in three days as the dollar weakens. Forget the risk of intervention by Japanese officials in the spot market. Yen traders are more concerned over a potential pivot by the Bank of Japan. The volatility term structures in the euro, the pound and the Swiss franc are fully inverted whereas the one in the yen peaks on the two-month tenor

In rates, treasuries rebounded in Asian trading after 10-year yields jumped the most since March 2020 on Monday. Japan 10-year yields edge up to 0.25%, the top of BOJ’s tolerated range, prompting the BOJ to enact another unscheduled bond-buying operation. 10-Year Treasury yields were down 11bps to 3.81%; the 10-year yield surged 24bps Monday, the most since March 2020, after poor demand for a two-year auction triggered renewed selling across the curve. One catalyst for the move was Doubleline’s Gundlach who tweeted that he has been a recent buyer. Still, the selloff is seeing few signs of ending, with UK notes losing a stunning 27% this year. The “bond vigilantes” are back in the saddle, according to the veteran economist credited with coining the term in the 1980s. Gilt yields slid following the biggest-ever surge and the pound rose about 1% after falling to a record low. Traders remained wary of the risk that the currency could slump to parity with the dollar after the Bank of England indicated it may not act before November to stem the rout. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/bund widening 10.3bps to 254.1bps.

In commodities, WTI climbed 1.6% to below $78, within Monday’s range. Spot gold rises roughly $15 to trade near $1,638/oz. There has been focus this morning on Nord Stream 1 & 2 damage with the cause currently unknown and fresh reporting around a potential EU gas price cap, to be discussed on Friday. The German network regulator later stated that it did not know the cause of the Nord Stream 1 pressure drop but didn’t see any impact on the security of supply, according to Reuters. At least 12 countries have signed a letter which calls on the EU to propose a gas price cap at this week’s Energy Ministers meeting via Politico citing a letter; proposals will be discussed on Friday, September 30th. A completely clueless President Biden said companies running gas stations need to bring down gasoline prices at the pump now,. BP (BP/ LN) halted production and evacuated staff at two offshore oil platforms in the US Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Ian. Intercontinental Exchange is reportedly planning to accept allowances generated by the carbon market as collateral in its European futures market to ease the pressure on utilities and traders amid the energy crisis, according to FT.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for September, the preliminary reading for durable goods orders and core capital goods orders for August, the FHFA house price index for July, and new home sales for August. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, we’ll get the M3 money supply for August. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, as well as the Fed’s Evans, Bullard and Kashkari, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Centeno, Villeroy and Panetta, as well as BoE chief economist Pill.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 1.2% to 3,715.75
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 391.77
MXAP up 0.5% to 142.53
MXAPJ up 0.4% to 464.38
Nikkei up 0.5% to 26,571.87
Topix up 0.5% to 1,873.01
Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,860.31
Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3,093.86
Sensex up 0.4% to 57,399.07
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,496.16
Kospi up 0.1% to 2,223.86
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.11%
Euro up 0.3% to $0.9637
Brent Futures up 1.8% to $85.61/bbl
Gold spot up 0.9% to $1,637.52
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.43% to 113.62

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Options traders haven’t been this busy since the pandemic mayhem in March 2020, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation
Speculators are betting the UK’s pound will slide to a level that was virtually unthinkable in recent decades: $1 or less. After the pound tumbled as low as $1.0350 Monday, the weakest on record, options markets show traders expect it to keep falling
The worst bond selloff in decades is seeing few signs of ending, with UK notes losing a stunning 27% this year, as central banks battle to stamp out the strongest inflationary pressures in decades
“Bond vigilantes” are back in the saddle and riding high again having mostly been on hiatus since the early 1990s, according to the veteran economist credited with coining the term in the 1980s
Traders are bracing for more pushback from China’s central bank as the yuan approaches the lowest level in 14 years. The onshore yuan has lost about 4% over the past month, trading within 1% of 7.2 per dollar, a level it hasn’t reached since 2008
China’s shaky recovery continued in September, with a pickup in car and homes sales in the biggest cities compensating for weaker global demand and falling business confidence
Japan looks to have spent more supporting the yen on Thursday alone than it did during the entire period of boosting its currency during the Asian financial crisis in 1998

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly higher in which the majority of indices shrugged off the negative lead from Wall St as the overhang from the recent FX turmoil dissipated but with the recovery somewhat contained by the higher yield environment. ASX 200 eked slight gains led by the commodity-related sectors as they atoned for yesterday’s underperformance. Nikkei 225 gained after recent comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda who reaffirmed his commitment to maintaining easy monetary policy, while the central bank also announced unscheduled purchase operations. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland underpinned amid reports that China is to ramp up financial support for new types of infrastructure, while the PBoC conducted its largest cash injection in seven months ahead of next week’s National Day holiday. However, growth concerns lingered with the World Bank forecasting China’s economic growth to lag behind the rest of Asia for the first time since 1990. India will likely be included in the JP Morgan Emerging Market Index early 2023, according to Reuters sources.

Top Asian News

India Unwilling to Relent on Tax Stance for Debt Index Inclusion
Australia’s Pinnacle Looks for Deals in Stressed UK and Europe
Macau Casino, China Travel Stocks in US Extend Gains
India Mulls $2.5 Billion Aid to Manufacture Grid-Scale Batteries
Geely’s EV Truck Farizon Said to Seek $300 Million Funding Round
Jinke Smart Services Jumps 33% After Boyu’s Share Purchase Offer
TikTok Steers Its Charm Offensive Around Loudest Critics in D.C.

European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, as the complex wanes from best levels ahead of a packed Central Bank agenda. Catalysts behind the pullback have been sparse with newsflow focused on geopols/energy; though, GS and BlackRock are turning more bearings on equities in the short-term. Stateside, futures remain in positive territory though have similarly drifted from initial peaks, ES +0.8%.

Top European News

Euro Pares Gain Versus Dollar After Nord Stream Comments
Odey Says Pound Still ‘Vulnerable’ as His Hedge Fund Soars 140%
Kwarteng Heads for a Difficult Meeting With London’s Top Bankers
Deutsche Bank’s Chief Economist Sees ‘Painful’ UK Recession
UK Labour Surges to Record 17-point Poll Lead Amid Pound Selloff
UniCredit Gains as JPMorgan Upgrades on Attractive Risk Reward
Akzo Nobel Reverses Drop as Analysts See Long-Term Opportunity

Central Banks

Fed’s Mester (2022, 2024 voter) said further rate hikes will be needed and will need a restrictive stance for some time, while she added it can be better to act more aggressively in an uncertain environment and that pre-emptive action can prevent the worst-case outcome. Mester said this is the time to be decisive and the Fed policy rate may be right below the restrictive level, as well as noted that they are not at neutral yet and need to get above that. Furthermore, Mester said rates are not coming down next year and that at some point they would have done enough and it will be a case of balancing risk at some point, but this is not that moment, according to Reuters.
Fed’s Evans (non-voter, departing) says US inflation is high, getting it under control is the number one job, via CNBC; Real rate could be around 1.5% by next spring, in Evans’ judgement. By this period, can perhaps sit and wait on rates; end-2022 consensus view on rates is 4.25-4.50%. Tougher rate environment is here for a while.

Geopolitics

Nord Stream says it has detected damage at three lines of the Nord Stream gas pipeline system; damages are unprecedented and is impossible to estimate when gas transportation infrastructure will be restored. Subsequently, Russia’s Kremlin said pipeline damage is a very concerning development; cannot rule out sabotage.
Russian Head of Security Council says Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons if necessary, says it is not a bluff, via Reuters.
US State Department Spokesman Price said the US does not see an Iran deal coming together soon.

DXY has eased from newly formed peaks as yields ease from highs and broader sentiment stages a modest recovery.
A pullback that is benefitting GBP in particular, with Cable outperforming after recent pressure as the Pound manages to gain some composure ahead of BoE’s Pill.
Similarly, NZD is among the best performers following RBNZ Governor Orr stating that further tightening is likely required.
More broadly, G10 peers are taking advantage of the USD’s pullback though the magnitude of this does differ somewhat; on the flip side, Yuan remains under pressure following a weaker fix, soft data and World Bank updates.

Fixed Income

Core benchmarks are mixed and feature ‘outperformance’ in Gilts after yesterday’s heft losses with the morning’s I/L relatively robust.
More broadly, Bunds initially waned a touch from a 138.75 best, though have reverted back towards the top-end of parameters as broader sentiment slips.
Stateside, USTs are holding firm and similarly at the top-end of ranges ahead of numerous Fed officials and 5yr issuance.
UK DMO intends to hold 19 Gilt auctions in October through December, now plans three syndications for remainder of year.

Commodities

Crude benchmarks have been meandering higher throughout the session, after yesterday’s lower settlement.
Focus on Nord Stream 1 & 2 damage with the cause currently unknown and fresh reporting around a potential EU gas price cap, to be discussed on Friday.
At least 12 countries have signed a letter which calls on the EU to propose a gas price cap at this week’s Energy Ministers meeting via Politico citing a letter; proposals will be discussed on Friday, September 30th
US President Biden said companies running gas stations need to bring down gasoline prices at the pump now, according to Reuters.
German network regulator later stated that it did not know the cause of the Nord Stream 1 pressure drop but didn’t see any impact on the security of supply, according to Reuters.
BP (BP/ LN) halted production and evacuated staff at two offshore oil platforms in the US Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Ian.
Intercontinental Exchange is reportedly planning to accept allowances generated by the carbon market as collateral in its European futures market to ease the pressure on utilities and traders amid the energy crisis, according to FT.
Hurricane Ian has strengthened to a Category 3 storm (major hurricane), via NHC; expected to strengthen further today, has made landfall.
UBS says that only a production cut by OPEC+ can break the negative momentum within oil in the short-term, adding that to provide a stronger floor in oil prices, Saudi would need to make extra voluntary cuts.
Metals are deriving support from the USDs relative pullback, though spot gold for instance remains within yesterday’s parameters.

US Event Calendar

08:30: Aug. Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.3%, prior -0.1%;
- Aug. -Less Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
08:30: Aug. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
- Aug. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
09:00: July S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 17.10%, prior 18.65%
- July S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 0.20%, prior 0.44%
- July S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, prior 17.96%
10:00: Sept. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 104.5, prior 103.2
- Sept. Conf. Board Expectations, prior 75.1
- Sept. Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 145.4
10:00: Aug. New Home Sales, est. 500,000, prior 511,000
- Aug. New Home Sales MoM, est. -2.1%, prior -12.6%
10:00: Sept. Richmond Fed Index, est. -10, prior -8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday I published my annual long-term study. It contains over 200 years of nominal and real returns across global bonds, equities, commodities and other assets. We also look at structural themes and this year we put 2022’s terrible year for financial markets into some historical context and try to understand “How we got here and where we’re going”. This year we have also launched it as a presentation pack simultaneously for those who want to flick through the broad themes. You can see the link to this in the executive summary of the full report which you can find here.

One of the key themes I pick up in the report is that we’re in the first global bear market for government bonds in over 70 years, using the yardstick of a -20% decline from their recent peak. This has also been a disaster for split bond-equity portfolios given the equity selloff as well this year.

When it comes to the last 24 hours, UK assets have remained at the eye of the storm as the negative reaction to the government’s mini-budget on Friday continued. The country’s government bonds were completely routed for a second day, with yields on 5yr gilts up by +47.8bps to a post-2008 high of 4.52%. Bear in mind that follows on from the +51.0bps move on Friday, which itself was the largest daily rise since January 1985 when there was a 200bps rate hike, so these are not the sort of moves we’re used to seeing every day. Indeed as I showed in an extra CoTD last night (link here) this is now the largest 5 day rolling move for 5yr gilts since our daily data starts in 1979 and the largest 5 day rolling move in 10yr gilts since 1976 (around the IMF loan) and the 5th largest such move since our daily data starts in 1934 (other 4 all around this mid-1970s period). So the global fixed income VAR shocks of the last 12 months keep on coming.

Furthermore, the gap between UK 10yr gilt yields and German 10yr bunds widened to more than 212bps by the close yesterday, which is the biggest spread in available Bloomberg data going back to the early 1990s. We’ll have a look at longer data later.

During yesterday’s session there was much speculation as to whether there might be an intervention or perhaps even an emergency intermeeting hike from the BoE. But it wasn’t until just before European markets closed that we finally heard from the UK Treasury, who put out a statement with a number of lines that looked designed to ease investors’ fears. In particular, there was confirmation that Chancellor Kwarteng would be setting out a “Medium-Term Fiscal Plan” on November 23, which would include details of the government’s fiscal rules and ensure that the debt-to-GDP ratio falls in the medium term. Furthermore, there would be a full forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (the government’s independent fiscal watchdog) alongside that fiscal plan in November 23. That contrasts with Friday’s mini-budget, where there wasn’t an independent forecast alongside the announcements.

Shortly after the Treasury statement, BoE Governor Bailey released his own statement, in which he said that the Monetary Policy Committee would “make a full assessment at its next scheduled meeting of the impact on demand and inflation from the Government’s announcements, and the fall in sterling, and act accordingly.” It further said that they would “not hesitate to change interest rates as necessary to return inflation to the 2% target sustainable in the medium term”. But in spite of those two statements, sterling actually lost ground afterwards since investors slashed the odds of an emergency inter-meeting hike. After hitting an all time low in Asia at $1.0392 it rallied to just above $1.09 by early afternoon and slightly higher on a hugely volatile day. After Bailey’s statement, it fell from just over $1.08 to just beneath $1.07, where it ended the day (up at $1.078 in Asia). In the meantime, the selloff in gilts resumed and they hit their lows for the session around the close. Looking forward, markets are still expecting an incredibly fast pace rate hikes ahead, with around 150bps priced in by the time of the next policy meeting on November 3, albeit that was down from 200bps at one point in the day.

The UK may have been the epicentre for yesterday’s moves, but the global bond selloff showed no sign of abating elsewhere, with yields rising to fresh multi-year highs on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, 10yr Treasury yields were up +24.0bps on the day to 3.92%, their highest since 2010, which came as investors continued to ratchet up their expectations for how hawkish the Fed would be over the coming year.This morning in Asia, yields have pulled back with 10yr USTs (-5.28 bps) at 3.87% and 2yrs (-4.12 bps) at 4.30%, as we go to press. Indeed, markets are getting the message that the Fed will have to be restrictive for longer, and instead of pricing insurance cuts through next year, the spread between December 2023 and December 2022 policy rates reached their steepest point yet at 22.3bps. The focus on tighter Fed policy also meant that yesterday’s rise in 10yr yields was driven by real rates, which saw an outsize +30.6bps move up to 1.55% (remarkably, only their largest move since June, a sign of how volatile markets have been this year), thus leaving them at levels not seen since 2010. Over in Europe, mounting expectations that the ECB would hike by 75bps in October helped to send yields on 10yr bunds (+9.1bps) and OATs (+11.5bps) higher on the day. In particular, Italian BTPs were a key underperformer following their election, and the spread of 10yr yields over bunds widened by +9.9bps on the day to 242bps, taking them to their widest level since May 2020. That widening in peripheral spreads was also echoed on the credit side, with iTraxx Crossover widening +18.0bps on the day to 655bps, marking its highest closing level since March 2020 during the initial phase of the Covid crisis.

This global risk-off move was evident across asset classes, as the S&P 500 (-1.03%) fell for a 5th consecutive session to close at its lowest level so far this year. That takes it beneath the June lows to levels not seen since late 2020, and leaves the index down by over -23% on a YTD basis, where energy remains the only sector in the green for the year. European equities followed a similar pattern, and the STOXX 600 (-0.42%) fell for the 9th time in the last 10 sessions to also hit levels unseen since late 2020. This widespread selloff was seen amongst commodities, with Brent crude oil prices (-2.43%) closing beneath $85/bbl for the first time since January, and even the classic safe haven of gold (-1.31%) slumped to a 2-year low.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Nikkei (+0.83%), Shanghai Composite (+0.26%) and the CSI (+0.18%) on the positive side. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (-1.05%) is trading lower, pulling back from some brief opening gains while the Kospi (-0.74%) is also weak. Across DMs, equity futures are pointing to a positive start with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.68%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.76%) and DAX (+0.55%) all edging higher.

Elsewhere, yields on 20-yr Japanese government bonds jumped to its highest level since 2015, moving above 1% level and trading at 1.029% (+3.8bps) as the upward surge in global yields is adding pressure on super-long JGBs.

Back to yesterday and the limited data did nothing to help sentiment, with the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany falling more than expected to 84.3 in September (vs. 87.0 expected). With the exception of April and May 2020 during the Covid lockdowns, that means the index is at its lowest level since 2009 as the economy was recovering from the GFC. Otherwise in the US, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index fell to -17.2 in September (vs. -9.0 expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for September, the preliminary reading for durable goods orders and core capital goods orders for August, the FHFA house price index for July, and new home sales for August. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, we’ll get the M3 money supply for August. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, as well as the Fed’s Evans, Bullard and Kashkari, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Centeno, Villeroy and Panetta, as well as BoE chief economist Pill.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

DXY has eased from best while broader sentiment slips ahead of numerous speakers – Newsquawk US Market Open

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 06:41 AM

European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, as the complex wanes from best levels ahead of a packed Central Bank agenda.
DXY has eased from newly formed peaks as yields ease from highs and broader sentiment stages a modest recovery.
GBP and Gilts have reclaimed some composure following recent pronounced pressure, all eyes on BoE’s Pill.
Stateside, USTs are holding firm and similarly at the top-end of ranges ahead of numerous Fed officials and 5yr issuance.
Crude benchmarks have been meandering higher throughout the session, after yesterday’s lower settlement.
Focus on Nord Stream 1 & 2 pipeline damage, cause unknown, and fresh reporting around a potential EU price cap.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Bullard, & Kashkari, ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos, & Panetta, BoE’s Pill, Supply from the US.

As of 11:10BST/06:10ET

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

LOOKING AHEAD

US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Bullard, & Kashkari, ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos, & Panetta, BoE’s Pill, Supply from the US.

CENTRAL BANKS

Fed’s Mester (2022, 2024 voter) said further rate hikes will be needed and will need a restrictive stance for some time, while she added it can be better to act more aggressively in an uncertain environment and that pre-emptive action can prevent the worst-case outcome. Mester said this is the time to be decisive and the Fed policy rate may be right below the restrictive level, as well as noted that they are not at neutral yet and need to get above that. Furthermore, Mester said rates are not coming down next year and that at some point they would have done enough and it will be a case of balancing risk at some point, but this is not that moment, according to Reuters.
Fed’s Evans (non-voter, departing) says US inflation is high, getting it under control is the number one job, via CNBC; Real rate could be around 1.5% by next spring, in Evans’ judgement. By this period, can perhaps sit and wait on rates; end-2022 consensus view on rates is 4.25-4.50%. Tougher rate environment is here for a while.

GEOPOLITICS

Nord Stream says it has detected damage at three lines of the Nord Stream gas pipeline system; damages are unprecedented and is impossible to estimate when gas transportation infrastructure will be restored. Subsequently, Russia’s Kremlin said pipeline damage is a very concerning development; cannot rule out sabotage.
Russian Head of Security Council says Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons if necessary, says it is not a bluff, via Reuters.
US State Department Spokesman Price said the US does not see an Iran deal coming together soon.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, as the complex wanes from best levels ahead of a packed Central Bank agenda.
Catalysts behind the pullback have been sparse with newsflow focused on geopols/energy; though, GS and BlackRock are turning more bearings on equities in the short-term.
Stateside, futures remain in positive territory though have similarly drifted from initial peaks, ES +0.8%.
Click here for more detail.

FX

DXY has eased from newly formed peaks as yields ease from highs and broader sentiment stages a modest recovery.
A pullback that is benefitting GBP in particular, with Cable outperforming after recent pressure as the Pound manages to gain some composure ahead of BoE’s Pill.
Similarly, NZD is among the best performers following RBNZ Governor Orr stating that further tightening is likely required.
More broadly, G10 peers are taking advantage of the USD’s pullback though the magnitude of this does differ somewhat; on the flip side, Yuan remains under pressure following a weaker fix, soft data and World Bank updates.
Click here for more detail.
Click here for OpEx for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Core benchmarks are mixed and feature ‘outperformance’ in Gilts after yesterday’s heft losses with the morning’s I/L relatively robust.
More broadly, Bunds initially waned a touch from a 138.75 best, though have reverted back towards the top-end of parameters as broader sentiment slips.
Stateside, USTs are holding firm and similarly at the top-end of ranges ahead of numerous Fed officials and 5yr issuance.
UK DMO intends to hold 19 Gilt auctions in October through December, now plans three syndications for remainder of year.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

Crude benchmarks have been meandering higher throughout the session, after yesterday’s lower settlement.
Focus on Nord Stream 1 & 2 damage with the cause currently unknown and fresh reporting around a potential EU gas price cap, to be discussed on Friday.
At least 12 countries have signed a letter which calls on the EU to propose a gas price cap at this week’s Energy Ministers meeting via Politico citing a letter; proposals will be discussed on Friday, September 30th
US President Biden said companies running gas stations need to bring down gasoline prices at the pump now, according to Reuters.
German network regulator later stated that it did not know the cause of the Nord Stream 1 pressure drop but didn’t see any impact on the security of supply, according to Reuters.
BP (BP/ LN) halted production and evacuated staff at two offshore oil platforms in the US Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Ian.
Intercontinental Exchange is reportedly planning to accept allowances generated by the carbon market as collateral in its European futures market to ease the pressure on utilities and traders amid the energy crisis, according to FT.
Hurricane Ian has strengthened to a Category 3 storm (major hurricane), via NHC; expected to strengthen further today, has made landfall.
UBS says that only a production cut by OPEC+ can break the negative momentum within oil in the short-term, adding that to provide a stronger floor in oil prices, Saudi would need to make extra voluntary cuts.
Metals are deriving support from the USDs relative pullback, though spot gold for instance remains within yesterday’s parameters.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

UK opposition Labour Party surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades with a YouGov poll showing a 17-point lead against the Tories, according to The Times.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

US Senate panel releases spending bill to avert a government shutdown which includes Manchin’s plan to speed energy permits and would fund the government until December 16th, according to NYTimes’ Cochrane
US HHS Secretary declared a public health emergency for Florida in response to Hurricane Ian, while the NHC said Hurricane Ian continues to quickly intensify and conditions in western Cuba were to deteriorate with significant wind and storm surge impact expected.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mostly higher in which the majority of indices shrugged off the negative lead from Wall St as the overhang from the recent FX turmoil dissipated but with the recovery somewhat contained by the higher yield environment.
ASX 200 eked slight gains led by the commodity-related sectors as they atoned for yesterday’s underperformance.
Nikkei 225 gained after recent comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda who reaffirmed his commitment to maintaining easy monetary policy, while the central bank also announced unscheduled purchase operations.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland underpinned amid reports that China is to ramp up financial support for new types of infrastructure, while the PBoC conducted its largest cash injection in seven months ahead of next week’s National Day holiday. However, growth concerns lingered with the World Bank forecasting China’s economic growth to lag behind the rest of Asia for the first time since 1990.
India will likely be included in the JP Morgan Emerging Market Index early 2023, according to Reuters sources.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

PBoC injected CNY 113bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injected CNY 62bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 173bln net injection.
Some Chinese fund managers and brokers were called by regulators to help stabilise the stock market ahead of the 20th party congress and regulators asked institutions to avoid trading activities that could cause large fluctuations, according to sources cited by Reuters.
China’s growth will lag behind the rest of Asia for the first time since 1990, according to FT citing forecasts by the World Bank.
World Bank lowered its East Asia and Pacific region 2022 growth forecast to 3.2% from 5.0% and sees 2023 growth at 4.6%, while it sees China’s economy to expand 2.8% this year and 4.5% next year, according to Reuters.
China’s MOFCOM has issued measures to support foreign trade; China is to step up support for cross-border e-commerce sector and vows to boost port efficiency, via Reuters.

NOTABLE APAC DATA

Chinese Industrial profit YTD (Aug) -2.1% (Prev. -1.1%)
Japanese Services PPI YY (Aug) 1.9% (Prev. 2.1%

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

China’s exports are slowing down due to economic contraction around the globe. Expect the yuan to fall some more

(Lei/Bloomberg)

Export Slowdown Could Bring More Bad News For Yuan

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 09:15 PM

By George Lei, Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst

Chinese exports are poised to slow further in the remainder of 2022, with various high-frequency datasets pointing to cooling global demand. Exports, a key growth engine that has lifted the Chinese economy since the pandemic, are sputtering. That could bring more bad news for the yuan.

South Korean data in September through the 20th suggest exports to China fell 14% year-over-year versus a 1% decline in exports to the US. This may be an ominous sign that global demand for consumer goods made in China — to which Korea provides inputs earlier in the supply chain — is softening, Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Monday. Hong Kong’s exports also sank 14.3% in August, the most since the pandemic first began in early 2020.

Plunging freight rates also point to cooling exports: A 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles fetched $3,779 last week, below $4,000 for the first time since September 2020 and half what it was three months ago, Bloomberg reported. More declines are expected in the coming weeks, according to Drewry Supply Chain Advisors.

The news couldn’t come at a worse time, with the offshore Chinese yuan now trading at the weakest since May 2020 — just a stone’s throw away from its record low — and economists rushing to cut China’s 2023 economic-growth forecasts. Dollar-yuan may need to go a lot higher to boost China’s exports meaningfully; the Chinese currency has advanced versus most of Beijing’s trade partners, outside of the US and Hong Kong, for much of 2022.

Chinese exporters already are holding foreign currencies more tightly. The conversion ratio — which measures the share of export revenues converted into yuan — fell from 57% in the first eight months of 2021 to 36% this year through August, according to Macquarie economists Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang. If that ratio holds steady, an extra $118 billion could have been sold by exporters into yuan, Macquarie estimates.

Falling Chinese export volumes and expectations of a weaker yuan will only make exporters more reluctant to sell their dollars. The yuan’s downtrend isn’t likely to reverse unless that negative feedback loop is broken.

END

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

ITALY

The reason that the EU and elitists hate Meloni so much

a good read.

(zerohedge)

Italy’s Next Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: Why Do They Hate Her So Much?

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 06:55 AM

So much for European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen’s threats from days ago, which Italians clearly ignored as Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing bloc is celebrating its historic, if largely expected, victory and a clear majority. Rod Dreher of The American Conservative sounds off on von der Leyen’s failed attempts at bullying entire populations of Europe: “How dare she?! How dare this unelected globalist technocrat threaten a free and democratic people like this! It is an outrage. This threat to bring the EU mechanism to bear against Italy if Italian voters give Giorgia Meloni power at this weekend’s election is a staggering moment. It shows what the EU is really about: not democracy, but rule by globalist elites.”

This brings us to the question of ‘Why do they hate her so much?’ The below 2-minute clip of Meloni giving a prior event speech which went viral this weekend as the votes in Italy were being counted provides a glimpse of why they must be on suicide watch in Brussels. The new Italian Prime Minister describes eloquently that Italians and human beings in general are not mere identity-less consumers and economic playthings of the ivory tower technocrat class, but belong under God, country and family…

From the archived speech, Meloni said…

“Please answer me these questions. This is about what we are doing here today. Why is the family an enemy? Why is the family so frightening? There is a single answer to all these questions. Because it defines us. Because it is our identity. Because everything that defines us is now an enemy for those who would like us to no longer have an identity and to be perfect consumer slaves.”

“And so they attack national identity, they attack religious identity, they attack gender identify, they attack family identity. I can’t define myself as Italian, Christian, woman, mother. No.”

“I must be citizen x, gender x, parent 1, parent 2. I must be a number. Because when I am only a number, when I no longer have an identity or roots, then I will be the perfect slave at the mercy of financial speculators. The perfect consumer.”

“That’s the reason why. That’s why we inspire so much fear. That’s why this event inspires so much fear. Because we do not want to be numbers. Will will defend the value of the human being. Every single human being. Because each of us has a unique genetic code that is unrepeatable. And like it or not, that is sacred. We will defend it. We will defend God, country and family.”

“Those things that disgust people so much. We will do it to defend our freedom, because we will never be slaves and simple consumers at the mercy of the financial speculators. That is our mission. That is why I came here today.”

“Chesterton wrote, more than a century ago… ‘Fires will be kindled to testify that two and two make four.’ Swords will be drawn to prove that leaves are green in summer.'”

“That time has arrived. We are ready.”

* * *

And that is why they hate her. As we noted earlier, the ultra-left wing press just can’t stop comparing Giorgia Meloni to Mussolini…

And more from her prior speeches…

“Yes to natural families, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology, yes to the culture of life, no to the abyss of death, no to the violence of Islam, yes to safer borders, no to mass immigration, yes to work for our people.”

Likely we are about to hear more about the “tools” that the European Commission has for years threatened to use against Poland and Hungary, in last-ditch Brussels efforts at staving off a conservative and traditionalist tide over increasingly deeply frustrated corners of Europe…

end

Major department store Fortnum and Mason has now given up on callingpolice to catch shoplifters and instead are using its own private

detectives

(Watson/SummitNews)

Major London Department Store Gives Up On Calling Police To Catch Shoplifters

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

London department store Fortnum and Mason has given up on calling police to catch shoplifters and is instead using its own private detectives to apprehend thieves.

The upmarket brand has “lost faith in the police” in response to rising levels of shoplifting, partly driven by the cost of living crisis.

Responding to Fortnum and Mason’s decision to use its own security to catch thieves, the Metropolitan Police said businesses were “entitled to employ security companies to provide additional safety for themselves or their premises.”

“Home Office figures published in April revealed that shoplifting prosecutions had fallen to an all-time low,” reports the Telegraph. “Just one in six (16.8 per cent) shoplifting offences reported to police resulted in a charge, nearly half the rate of 30.8 per cent five years previously.”

Between 200,000 and 300,000 shoplifting offences go unpunished every year, while untold thousands more are never even reported.

Citing a lack of resources, police departments across the UK have stopped responding to or investigating some crimes, with their officers presumably being more interested in performing dance routines at gay pride parades.

Car theft in London has effectively been decriminalized, with just 277 out of 55,000 offences being solved by Scotland Yard, a 0.5% success rate.

Back in 2015, the head of the National Police Chiefs’ Council said that due to a lack of resources, officers would be unable to attend some burglaries. In 2018, it was revealed that two thirds of burglaries are not even investigated.

Despite many crimes going unsolved, there are still plenty of resources available to prosecute people for saying offensive things or making edgy social media posts.

Back in June, a man was jailed for 20 weeks for the ‘crime’ of posting offensive George Floyd memes in private WhatsApp and Facebook group chats.

In 2017, it was reported that British police had arrested 3,395 people for ‘offensive online comments’ in the space of a year.

END

CZECH REPUBLIC

First it was Hungary, then Poland, then Italy and now Czech Republic sees a steady rise of right wing parties and populists ideas as their economy sours

(Cody Remix News)

Czech Elections Show Steady Rise Of Right-Wing Parties & Populists As Economy Sours

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

In this year’s municipal elections in the Czech Republic held over the weekend, Czechs backed populist and right-wing parties as the center-right government saw voters turn away due to a souring economy and growing cost-of-living crisis.

The populist ANO party, which is led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, came in first in eight of 13 regional capitals, but it fell short of gaining control of the two largest cities, Prague and Brno. Babiš, considered a close ally of Hungarian Prime Minister VIktor Orbán, narrowly lost Czech national elections in 2021, and the latest results indicate that his party is clawing back voters.

Tomio Okamura’s Freedom and Direct Democracy movement saw strong gains in this year’s Czech municipal elections. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek)

In addition, the right-wing Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party led by Tomio Okamura made substantial gains in larger cities in the country, with the party’s aggressive stance against Russian sanctions, which many Czechs blame for soaring energy inflation, resonating with voters. Okamura’s party tripled its number of municipal representatives from 161 to 492, and secured its first-ever representatives in Prague. Polling also places the SPD as the second most popular in Czechia right now.

Czechs elections are complex and complicated for outside observers to understand, but when it comes to municipal elections, most political analysts are looking at the results of the biggest cities in the country, where ANO and SPD outperformed. However, the country’s oldest parties, such as the Christian and Democratic Union–Czechoslovak People’s Party (KDU-ČSL) and the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) are the most entrenched in smaller towns and rural areas, where they have campaign offices and local representatives who have long served in their positions. This may be one factor why despite losing many of the cities, KDU-ČSL still won the most representatives from any party, just like four years ago, although by a smaller share.

The second finisher was the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), and the third was the Mayors and Independents (STAN). Compared to the results in 2018, the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM), and Mayors and Independents (STAN) saw a significant drop in their number of representative seats. The other parties of the government coalition also lost seats, while the opposition movements Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and ANO improved.

Babiš also celebrated his party’s results in Prague where his party got the second most votes.

“It is a success because we lost the general election in 2021 mainly in Prague where we had some 14 percent,” said Babiš describing the 19.34 percent his party received in the city.

However, as usual, independent candidates and their various local associations won the municipal elections overall. According to data, they won 3,367 more representative seats than four years ago.

A third of Czech Senate seats were also up for grabs, but the results of those elections are less clear. Of the 27 senate seats up for grabs, only three were decided in the first round. Next weekend, the rest will be decided. However, ANO already won one extra seat, and the party is headed to the second round in 17 districts. Given that only a third of senate seats are up for grabs, it means that there is no way the current ruling coalition is under threat of losing power following next weekend’s election results.

According to the final results published by the election website on Sunday, 46.07 percent of voters participated in the municipal elections. That is roughly one percentage point less than in 2018.

The most significant drop affected the left

ČSSD lost almost three-fifths of its representatives. KSČM fared even worse, losing almost 70 percent of its representative mandates. STAN recorded a drop of 747 seats in councils, ODS lost 306, Pirates lost 84, and TOP 09 lost 56.

The SPD movement has improved by 331 mandates since the last election, and the ANO movement won 64 more representatives.

The ANO movement won in most major cities. Just like four years ago, they won in 17 out of 27 statutory cities, including eight out of 13 regional capitals. In the last municipal elections, ANO was in first place in 11 regional capitals.

KDU-ČSL won first place among the parties even though they lost 393 seats in the councils. They won 3,252 of them this year.

According to data from the Czech Statistical Office, 195,214 candidates sought 61,796 representative mandates. The average age of elected representatives is 47.6 years, while the oldest representative is 88 years old. Eleven representatives who were 18 years old won a seat. Among the elected representatives, 71 percent are men, and 29 percent are women.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA//UKRAINE/USA

No money to fix USA infrastructure but Congress finds $12 billion to Ukraine aid in a stopgap funding bill

(DeCamp/Antiwar.c0m)

Congress Stuffs $12BN In Ukraine Aid Into Stopgap Funding Bill

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 08:23 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Congressional negotiators agreed to include nearly $12 billion in new spending on the war in Ukraine in a stopgap spending bill that will likely be voted on this week, Reuters reported on Monday.

Sources told Reuters that the $12 billion will include $4.5 billion in funding for arms being sent to Ukraine and $2.7 billion for other military and intelligence support for Ukraine. The funding also includes $4.5 billion in direct budgetary aid for the Ukrainian government.

A source told The Associated Press that the stopgap bill is meant to fund the federal government through mid-December and could be brought to the Senate for a vote as soon as Tuesday evening.

The funds for Ukraine largely fall in line with a request made by President Biden. The White House asked Congress to authorize $11.7 billion in spending for Ukraine and for $2 billion for energy spending to offset the cost of the sanctions campaign against Moscow.

If the measure is passed, it will bring the total US expenditures for the war in Ukraine to about $65.6 billion. Including the $2 billion in energy spending to offset sanctions brings the total to $67.6 billion. To put the figure in perspective, Russia’s entire annual military budget for 2021 was $65.9 billion.

The Ukraine aid is not meant to last very long. When requesting the funds, the White House said it was needed for the first three months of the 2023 fiscal year, which starts on October 1 for the federal government. Ukraine is preparing to launch more counteroffensive next year and has asked the US to provide more advanced weaponry.

US support for this proxy war on Russia’s border is entering extremely dangerous territory as Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Moscow could defend its “territorial integrity” with nuclear weapons. Russian territory is set to expand into Ukraine as referendums are being held in Russian-controlled areas.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

Russia will certainly not like this: the Ukrainians confirm recept of longer range missiles from the uSA

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Confirms Receipt Of Longer-Range Missiles It’s Long Sought From US

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 10:00 PM

Despite this past week which has seen US officials echo growing concerns over Moscow’s ratcheting nuclear rhetoric – which Ukraine too has said it is taking seriously – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is now boasting his country has received a new, advanced US missile system.

He confirmed in a fresh interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation” that the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) has been long sought after by Kyiv, but previously in the war repeatedly denied:

Zelensky thanked the U.S. for the system as well as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems it’s received, but added that his troops “absolutely need the United States to show leadership and give Ukraine” additional air defense systems it has requested.

Ukraine began urgently asking for transfer of the NASAMS by early summer, but the Biden administration as reluctant to provide missile systems with longer range, concerned they would be used to strike inside Russian territory and thus drag Washington and Moscow into direct cofronation.

According to a CNN report in June, “Ukrainian officials have asked for the missile defense system, known as a NASAMS system, given the weapons can hit targets more than 100 miles away, though the Ukrainian forces will likely need to be trained on the systems, a source said.”

But that’s apparently no longer enough of a concern to halt these longer range systems, despite the Kremlin repeatedly warning that attacks on its territory with foreign weapons are a severe red line.

According to The Hill:

The Biden administration approved the shipment of six of the missile systems late last month as part of a nearly $3 billion lethal aid package to bolster Kyiv as it battles the Kremlin invasion.

The NASAMS are considered “medium-range” systems, but are considered an improvement over prior missiles sent to Ukraine, which typically had a max range of 30 to 50 miles. The NASAMS are capable of defending against aircraft, cruise missiles, as well as drones and were designed by the US and Norway.

But Zelensky in the CBS interview didn’t waist time asking for more, as has been typical, saying that amid his forces achieving success in the ongoing eastern counteroffensive they urgently need more tanks, artillery, and more missiles.

end

RUSSIA

Russia enacts lengthy prison sentences for wartime desertion and refusal to serve

(zerohedge)

Russia Enacts Lengthy Prison Sentences For Wartime Desertion & Refusal To Serve

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Days after announcing a partial mobilization of national forces amid the ongoing ‘special operation’ in neighboring Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday enacted significant measures to prevent citizens from fleeing draft notices, as he signed into law stiff penalties for desertion.

Putin specifically introduced “mobilization, martial law and wartime” measures into the Russian Criminal Code for the first time, which also covers long prison terms for “voluntary” surrender.

It comes following days of social media videos out of Russia going viral which show young men pack out airports as well as long queues at border posts at places like the Russia-Georgia border.

According to The Moscow Post, some of the penalties include a harsh 15 years in prison:

Under the law, “voluntary” surrender is punishable by up to 15 years in prison. But a first-time offender “may be exempted from criminal liability if he took measures for his release, returned to his unit or place of service and did not commit other crimes while in captivity,” according to the bill published on the State Duma website.

Desertion during a period of mobilization or wartime will be punished by up to 10 years in jail, while conscientious objectors will risk up to three years in prison.

Penalties are also stipulated for “looting during wartime” – after the opening months of the Ukraine invasion saw criticism from the West over reports of Russian troops rummaging through stores and residences of occupied areas.

Last week Putin’s order called up some 300,000 reservists, with some reports speculating that the actual figure could be much higher – as much as one million – according to some sources, though this remains unconfirmed.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has meanwhile been encouraging safe passage and protection for Russia soldiers who surrender, according to his words summarized in The Hill:

Appealing directly to Russians during an address, Zelensky said Ukraine could guarantee three terms to Russian soldiers in exchange for their surrender. He said such Russians will be treated in a civilized manner, the circumstances of their surrender will remain undisclosed and Ukraine will find a way to ensure those who do not want to return to Russia are not exchanged.

Zelensky asserted in making the appeal, “Russian commanders do not care about the lives of Russians. They just need to replenish the empty spaces left by the dead, wounded, those who fled or the Russian soldiers that were captured.”

There are fresh reports Sunday saying that Russian President Putin in the coming days will impose a travel ban outside the country for all military age males…

Countries like Finland and the Baltic states have taken measures to essentially lock-down their borders to Russian young men suspected of fleeting military service. The Baltic countries have already enacted a de facto blanket travel ban on Russian nationals, while Finland has thus far taken only temporary measures to restrict the flow of Russian travelers.

end

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Huge majorities in favour of joining Russia as annexation polls close

(zerohedge)

Results Show Huge Majorities In Favor Of Joining Russia As Ukraine Annexation Polls Close: State Media

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 04:20 PM

Annexation polls have closed Tuesday in four occupied regions of Ukraine, after five days of voting on whether or not citizens in these territories wish to join the Russian Federation. Marking the occasion, President Vladimir Putin said in a televised meeting with officials: “Saving people in the territories where this referendum is taking place… is the focus of the attention of our entire society and of the entire country.”

Russia’s state RT has announced partial results late in the evening (local time) showing a huge majority in both the breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) supporting uniting with the Russian Federation. “In DPR, more than 98% of voters supported the idea to join Russia, according to early official figures. The referendum in LPR yielded a similar result, with more than 97% of voters supporting the potential reunification. In Lugansk, all the ballots have been already counted, according to local authorities, while Donetsk, so far, has processed just over a half of votes.”

And on initial results from Zaporizhzhia, Russian’s English language broadcaster reports, “Residents of the Zaporozhye region in Ukraine, which is partially controlled by Moscow, have elected to break away from the country and join the Russian Federation. More than 93% of voters have supported the idea to split from Ukraine and join Russia, official figures show after all the ballots have been counted.”

The Ukrainian government and its Western backers have denounced the referendums as a “sham” – given it’s happening in the middle of a war and occupation. Yet other observers have noted these are all historically Russian-speaking regions, and that even without the Russian invasion a strong pro-Moscow showing would be likely.

The votes were held starting late last week through the weekend in self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, and in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – despite Russian forces not currently being in control of every part of these territorial regions.

Not only has Kyiv vowed not to recognize any declared “independence” of these oblasts, it has even threatened lengthy prison sentences for any Ukrainian who organizes referenda or individuals who participate in the voting.

Meanwhile Russia’s RIA said of voting across the occupied territories: First partial voting results from Russian-occupied parts of four regions of Ukraine show majorities of at least 96% in favor of becoming part of Russia.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1574853597237547025&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fpartial-results-show-96-favor-joining-russia-ukraine-annexation-polls-close-state&sessionId=593a8ad82c545c9b6c6945f26cfd397d587d0b86&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

The Kremlin has announced a major Putin speech set for Friday, and it’s believed the Russian leader will use the occasion to declare the Ukrainian territories now part of Russia. This will mean close to 20% of Ukraine’s geographic territory will be claimed as under the Russian state.

An extremely important commentary from Robert: the sabotage of Nordstream one and two:

More On The Referendum Game Changer – A Son of the New American Revolution

Interesting writing of what is going on.

More On The Referendum Game Changer

Equally as interesting and perhaps more so is That sabotage occurred with Nordstream 1 & 2 rendering both line inoperative due to underwater explosions in both pipes. At the depth required to do this there are very few contenders for this action and it is most doubtful it was Russia because they control actual gas flow and have no gain from such action.
Who did it is less important than the fallout because it means that Europe is screwed and its’ economy will undergo a massive collapse. Repair of these pipes is not a weekend job but will take months as you have to not fix the break but clear the sea water that has rushed into those pipes. Even if tomorrow Europe wanted gas via those pipes, this option is many months away with old man winter on the doorstep. And one can forget the Ukrainian pipe as the Ukrainians are ones who cut off the gas going to Europe that Gazprom was sending at the start of the conflict. And they will not turn gas flow on to help Europe. And Poland has also shut down the pipe running through Poland to Germany.
I can think of no greater current disaster facing Europe as their economic outlook is beyond bleak. No additional effort is needed to overwhelm Europe as we have known it, altering it to who knows what. Soon if not already many asset classes will prove illiquid. And therefore lose all commercial lending capability. As it is residential real estate is going well below replacement cost, if it sells at all. Euro denominated debt in New York for lending purposes has zero value.
No wonder unelected Brussels is pissed off at Serbia, Hungary and angry over Italy electing a counter to their dictates. It only fuels mistrust in all things Euro.
One really does wonder about the value of the Euro in light of unstoppable events coming and how long the EU will stand together as one as economic decline accelerates and social unrest grows weekly in light of what comes forth.

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL/

This is now becoming mainstream! We brought this to your attention last week

Lee/Stieber/EpochTimes)

Israeli Investigators Find COVID-19 Vaccines Cause Side Effects: Leaked Video

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 02:50 PM

Authored by Meiling Lee and Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Israeli researchers found some side effects that occurred after COVID-19 vaccination were caused by Pfizer’s vaccine, according to a leaked video.

The Israeli Ministry of Health (MoH) commissioned researchers to analyze adverse event reports submitted by Israelis and the researchers presented findings from the new surveillance system in an internal June 2022 meeting, video of which was obtained by an Israeli journalist.

Researchers said that the phenomenon of rechallenge—when adverse events reoccur or worsen following additional vaccine doses—proved that some of the events were caused by the vaccine.

A positive rechallenge was reported in 10 percent of the women who complained of menstrual issues, according to the researchers, who also identified cases of rechallenge for other adverse events.

Rechallenge changes a causal link “from possible to definitive,” Dr. Mati Berkovitch, head of the research team and a pediatric specialist, said at the meeting.

Rechallenge “helps us to establish the causal relationship,” added Sasha Zhurat, the main presenter at the meeting. The advantage of the surveillance system and the analysis “is not only to identify the symptoms but also to link them to the vaccine,” she said.

Footage of the meeting was leaked to Yaffa Shir-Raz, a health journalist and a risk communication researcher. Shir-Raz has publicly released clips from the meeting. The Epoch Times reviewed footage of the entire meeting and had key portions translated independently for this story.

About two months after the meeting, the MoH published a public report on the results of the data analysis. Language in the report on causality differed from that used during the meeting.

“The report presents all the cases that were reported in close proximity to the receipt of the coronavirus vaccine, and does not necessarily indicate a causal relationship between receiving the vaccine and the reported phenomenon,” MoH said in the report.

MoH spokespersons did not return or declined to answer questions on the discrepancy. Instead, a spokesperson sent a press release dated Sept. 19, 2021, that announced the “establishment of a dedicated information headquarters for the fight against the coronavirus.”

Zhurat declined to comment.

“I’m no longer part of the project. Unfortunately, I cannot address your questions. Please reffer [sic] your queries to the MOH,” she told The Epoch Times via Facebook message.

A request for comment to Dr. Emilia Anis, director of the MoH Division of Epidemiology and a meeting attendee, was returned by the MoH, which declined to answer the questions asked of Anis.

Berkowitz did not respond to a request for comment.

Rechallenge

Rechallenge in pharmacovigilance is one of the factors to determine causality and refers to the re-administration of the same vaccine or drug after an adverse event goes away to examine whether the same event occurs again.

Dr. Robert Malone, who helped develop the messenger RNA (mRNA) technology on which Pfizer’s vaccine is built, told The Epoch Times that rechallenge is a “standard pharmaceutical clinical trial practice” that can provide definitive proof of causality.

“The reports of rechallenge in the Israeli study do not prove causality,” according to Malone. Only a formal rechallenge trial would, he said. The analysis, though, “strongly suggests and supports causality,” he said.

Dr. Harvey Risch, a professor emeritus of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, told The Epoch Times via email that the researchers “are essentially correct” in their conclusions that the vaccines caused the adverse events.

Researchers in other countries have said before that there are causal links between certain vaccines and certain side effects.

“The current evidence supports a causal association between mRNA COVID-19 vaccination and myocarditis and pericarditis,” Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, a health researcher with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said during a meeting over the summer.

Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine also utilizes mRNA technology. Myocarditis and pericarditis are two forms of heart inflammation that can lead to death.

Most side effects following COVID-19 vaccination tend to be mild and typically last only a few days, according to the CDC. Other post-vaccination conditions are described as adverse events.

Side effects are health issues that have been proven to be caused by a vaccine, while an adverse event is a medical condition that may or may not be related to the vaccine.

The CDC’s Immunization Safety Office declined to comment on the Israeli findings. “CDC continues to monitor the safety of COVID-19 vaccines and makes information available to the public in a timely and transparent manner,” it told The Epoch Times via email.

Pfizer and Moderna have not responded to requests for comment.

Israel has primarily administered Pfizer’s vaccine, entering into a unique agreement (pdf) with the U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. Israel quickly received Pfizer doses. In return, the country allowed Pfizer executives to access some national health data.

Other Findings Not Made Public

Israel’s surveillance system was revamped in December 2021.

The data presented in June was collected from December 2021 to May.

The surveillance system received a total of 8,000 reports, of which 1,741 were removed for providing incomplete or duplicate information.

Of the 6,259 reports presented, 599 were for children aged 5 to 11; 299 for adolescents aged 12 to 17; and 5,411 for adults 18 and older. More women than men completed the questionnaire.

A total of 29 categories of adverse events were identified, 22 of them from the blank space option on the questionnaire. However, only data for the first five categories with the most reports were analyzed: neurological (395 reports), general side effects (295), menstrual disorder (282), musculoskeletal disorders (279), and the digestive, kidney, and urinary system (192).

Many of the reported adverse events were found to be long-lasting, which researchers said in the meeting was surprising since the brochure handed to vaccine recipients says otherwise. They also said Pfizer officials told them that Pfizer did not know of any long-lasting symptoms.

Researchers also said that they identified new adverse events not listed in the brochure, including back pain.

In the official report later issued to the public, the MoH did not detail how researchers were caught off guard by the duration of the events and side effects. The health agency also stated that there were no new events identified.

“In conclusion, the reported phenomena are known phenomena in the professional literature and were also found in the previous reports of the Ministry of Health, and there was no observation of an increase in a new phenomenon (new signal),” the MoH wrote.

Shir-Raz, the journalist who broke the story about the internal meeting, said the delay in reporting the results included not sharing the data with the MoH expert panel that convened near the end of June to decide whether to recommend Pfizer’s vaccine for children aged 6 months to 5 years.

“We have the protocol of this meeting, so we know it specifies which documents were presented to them when they made their decision, and there was no mention of this study in the protocol,” Shir-Raz told The Epoch Times, citing a MoH document (pdf) she obtained. “So they hid it even from their own experts.”

Shir-Raz who was fired from her job last year for writing articles critical of the MoH’s handling of the lockdown and COVID-19 deaths statistics, said that breaking the story was about “getting the truth out.”

“For the past two months, I’ve been dedicating myself almost entirely to this story only … It’s not just another issue for me, it’s not another article,” Shir-Raz said. “For me, it’s getting the truth out. Because it’s not just local … It has international implications.”

US Connection

Israel has often been the first country to report on vaccine safety and effectiveness. Its data has regularly been cited by U.S. agencies, including the CDC.

Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, an Israeli official who has said she’s in charge of vaccine safety monitoring, has presented data four times to the CDC and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration since September 2021, most recently in April 2022.

Just 1.5% Of Eligible People Have Gotten Updated COVID Booster

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 08:00 PM

Only 1.5% of those eligible to receive the new Covid booster jab – which was tested on just 8 mice, not humans, before the FDA approved it – have taken the updated shot, according to data released Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Approximately 4.4 million people have taken the tweaked booster shot from Pfizer and Moderna after they were rolled out three weeks ago around Labor Day weekend. The bivalent shots were designed to target both the original Covid-19 strain, and the currently circulating Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, NBC News reports.

“I would expect a much higher proportion of Americans to have gotten the booster by this point,” said Yale Medicine infectious diseases specialist, Dr. Scott Robers, who said the relatively low uptake was “demoralizing.”

“The fact that this booster came out days before Biden said the pandemic is over is a huge mixed message,” said Roberts, who added that a lack of public awareness surrounding the shots – or the ‘prevailing narrative that the pandemic is ending’ might have hindered the rollout. “Now it’s going to be that much harder to convince those at risk who are on the fence to get a booster.”

As of Tuesday, the US had shipped over 25 million boosters to tens of thousands of sites.

Approximately 80% of the US population has received at least one shot of the primary Covid vaccine, and almost 68% are considered ‘fully vaccinated’ by the CDC – meaning they’ve received two doses of Pfizer or Moderna’s offering, or one dose of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine.

experts are still gathering real-world data, since the shots were distributed without results from human trials. Laboratory studies found that the boosters generated strong antibody responses against BA.4 and BA.5, and human trial data showed that a similar vaccine yielded a strong antibody response against the initial omicron strain, BA.1.

Authorization of the bivalent boosters for children ages 5 to 11 may be just weeks away, Dr. Peter Marks, director of the Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said at an event this week with the Covid-19 Vaccine Education and Equity Project. -NBC News

Word of the slow uptake comes after Denmark recommended that only those over the age of 50, or who are at risk of developing severe Covid-19, receive the vaccine.

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

end

end.

Vaccine//Covid issues:

PAUL ALEXANDER…

WARNING: If we do not stop this COVID gene injection now, this non-neutralizing failed injection, we will drive soon a variant both infectious & virulent/lethal that will cause massive severity

Geert VB warns: ‘The combination of rapidly decreasing C-19 morbidity and rapidly decreasing neutralizing Ab capacity in vaccinees is an extremely poor prognostic sign….’

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 26

▷ LISTEN SAVE

We have been arguing near daily now that the non-neutralizing, highly antigen specific, vaccine induced antibodies, are driving immune escape, original antigenic sin, antibody dependent enhancement of infection (ADEI) and of disease (ADED) in the vaccinee who is becoming infected, ill, and potential death.

This COVID vaccine, whatever they call it, must be stopped! It is driving massive infectious pressure in the midst of sub-optimal immune pressure in the population and as such, driving the emergence of natural selection variants that on the one hand, enhances and facilitates infection in the upper respiratory tract (and thus transmission) while blocking severe illness in the lower respiratory tract (blocks transfection from infected cells to uninfected cells in the LRT and the formation of syncytia which is correlated with severe illness). The same non-neutralizing antibodies are doing this yet there is serious risk that selected variants will overcome this blocking and will overcome the sub-optimal immune pressure on ‘virulence’. This would result in variants selected for that will cause severe disease in the lower lungs. We may be facing this in the winter.

This vaccine must be stopped! This COVID gene platform vaccine especially mRNA, is causing the variants and infections in vaccinees and thus the larger population is at risk, yet will cause a very severe variant to emerge. This is the risk we are afraid of. The potential is real. The new bivalent booster is failed out of the box, even the 8-10 mice got infected in the lungs and nostrils. This bivalent booster is a joke and not even double COVID infected Bourla will take it.

I/we are warning you again! Never in your healthy children!

end

———- Forwarded message ———
From: Dr. Paul Alexander from Alexander COVID News<palexander@substack.com>
Date: Mon, Sep 26, 2022 at 10:31 PM
Subject: Israeli study links COVID vaccines to 25% increase in cardiac arrest, both males & females, based on data from eme…
To: <sabioncello@gmail.com>


	Open in browser Israeli study links COVID vaccines to 25% increase in cardiac arrest, both males & females, based on data from emergency services. COVID infection itself NOT linked to significant increase“ cardiac arrest & acute coronary syndrome EMS calls in the 16–39-year-old population” 2019 & 2021; enabled comparison to baseline (pre-COVID epidemic) to COVID epidemic without vaccine to vaccine Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 27 ▷ LISTEN SAVE ‘“An increase of over 25% was detected in both call types during January–May 2021, compared with the years 2019–2020. That is to say, “increased rates of vaccination … are associated with increased number of CA [cardiac arrest] and ACS [acute coronary syndrome].” By contrast, the trial “did not detect a statistically significant association between the COVID-19 infection rates and the CA and ACS weekly call counts.” SOURCE: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/328529 They caution that given these findings, “It is essential to raise awareness among patients and clinicians with respect to related symptoms (e.g., chest discomfort and shortness of breath) following vaccination or COVID-19 infection to ensure that potential harm is minimized.”END Oops, we WERE right! “COVID-19 vaccines in human BREAST milk”; JAMA Pediatrics; 11 lactating individuals received either the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine (n = 5) or the Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine (n = 6) 6 months post delivery. Trace amounts of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 mRNA vaccines were detected in 7 samples from 5 different participants at various times up to 45 hours postvaxx Dr. Paul Alexander Sep 27 ▷ LISTEN SAVE This first statement by authors is ludicrous. How can they say this is ‘safe’?‘The sporadic presence and trace quantities of COVID-19 vaccine mRNA detected in EBM suggest that breastfeeding after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination is safe, particularly beyond 48 hours after vaccination. END Open in browser 2 graphs, Germany versus South Africa as to COVID infections/cases today; one highly vaccinated, the other not; Germany is actually seeing an uptick in cases now, why?Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 27 ▷ LISTEN SAVE S

Dr. Peter McCullough, practicing cardiologist, a very dear friend to me, brilliant scientist, see his new Australian presentation “5 Pandemic truths”

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 26

▷ LISTEN SAVE

SOURCE:

VACCINE IMPACT/

Pfizer Continues to Use Babies and Children as Lab Rats to Develop More COVID-19 Vaccines – Petitions FDA for New EUA Booster for 5 to 11 Year Olds

September 26, 2022 3:50 pm

Pfizer and BioNTech announced today that they have completed a submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requesting Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of a 10-µg booster dose of the companies’ Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine for children ages 5 through 11 years of age. They will also be making a submission to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in the coming days. The Press Release today also reported that they have begun Phase 1/2/3 studies on babies and young children aged 6 months through 11 years of age to test “the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of different doses and dosing regimens of the companies’ Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine in children 6 months through 11 years of age.” The Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine was already authorized for adults over the age of 18 on August 31, 2022 without any human testing, so Pfizer is using babies and children as lab rats to conduct the first human tests on this new COVID-19 vaccine.

VACCINE INJURY/

Pro-Vaccine Cardiologist Now Calls for Immediate End to COVID Vaccines • Children’s Health Defense

Inbox

People would do well to listen

Pro-Vaccine Cardiologist Now Calls for Immediate End to COVID Vaccines

Top Federal Health Advisor Breaks Ranks, Warns Young People Not to Get Booster Shots

One of America’s leading vaccine experts, who serves as a top health advisor to the federal government, has broken ranks and warned young, healthy people not to get COVID-19 booster shots.

end

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

A MUST READ

(Michael Every)

“This Is A Global Metacrisis”: Markets Risk Replaying 1987, 1994, 1997, 2000, 2008, The Arab Spring, 2012, 2015, And 2020 All At The Same Time

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 11:50 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Even the neoliberals don’t want neoliberalism

“Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the Neoliberal Party?”

Markets were roiled Monday, with another epic surge in bond yields. “Stocks and bonds have worst half in history” was the Bloomberg headline; as our own Christian Lawrence points out, it was the worst 60/40 portfolio return in 90 years, and the second worst in 122 years. Ouch! Then we saw a massive bear steepening of the US curve on the day, with 2-year yields +14bp to 4.34% and 10-year yields +24bp to 3.92%, the highest since 2010. Ouch again!

The neoliberal view since August had been that after reaching 3.50% the next destination for 10s was 3%, then 2.5%, then something far lower. To be fair, that’s how neoliberalism has worked since Volcker: lower yield highs, lower yield lows, cut rates, and let markets rip! Not anymore though, it seems. Some of that move was a likely selling of Treasuries to cover other liabilities as markets tumbled all over. Even so, the Fed’s Mester underlined yet again that US rates will stay higher for longer, and that ‘longer’ part of the message may be starting to sink in further down the curve – US 5-year yields were up 21bp for example, and the market is now pricing out any rate cuts for 2023, which was already our house view.

Bostic then added that the Fed hadn’t lost credibility with the public: the gentleman doth protest too much, as doth the markets.

This all ostensibly started with the UK and the flash crash in Gilts and the GBP, which Bloomberg was referring to as the Great British Peso yesterday. Poor King Charles: even before his face appears on UK banknotes, they have become less valuable. However, the fact that the crisis has spread shows the problems run far deeper than “Brexit”.

In particular, the radical tax-cutting UK budget from Friday and the weekend’s promise of more to come is a last roll of the dice for the Tory government; perhaps for ‘Global Britain’; and maybe for the neoliberal economic philosophy.

After all, the most diverse UK cabinet in history has produced what some call the most monomaniacally neoliberal budget in history (apart from vast energy subsidies that sit alongside the absence of any rationing); and it is publicly being called “The Economics of Narnia”, of “Lalaland”, “Kami-Kwasi”, and worse by non-neoliberals and by neoliberals.

Of course, those historical claims are wrong. Past neoliberal UK budgets allowed for the deliberate starvation of millions under the banner of free trade, as detailed here for those who think markets are untainted by the evident evils of too much state control: read it, even if just to argue back. Yet some voices whisper that the bait and switch is to slash taxes, then be forced to slash state spending to match. Wouldn’t that play well with voters right now?

Even the bankers richly rewarded in the UK Budget are betting against the policies in it. On the Great British Peso, my 2022 meme that “DM = EM”, was predicated on the view that an early rates pivot against a deliberately supply-constrained backdrop would see commodity prices surge, FX crumble, and yields surge. Clearly, massive unfunded tax cuts aimed at the wealthiest and asset markets produce the same outcome – who knew?! Equally, who knew Western governments would feel pressured into populist policies rather than saying “tough luck”?

As in an EM, now UK rates need to rise even higher than before: the market expectation is of a BOE rates peak of 5.75%, when many would not have bet on even 0.575% a year ago.

Yesterday, market whispers were of an emergency BOE inter-meeting hike. All we got was an anodyne statement from Governor Bailey basically saying, “The Bank is monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of financial assets,” and that it would look at the issue at its scheduled meeting. Down went GBP again.

Markets will now test the BOE and the ‘Peso’ – and if they don’t hike, disaster. Worse, an emergency rate hike would put the BOE and the government at loggerheads – again a disaster. Logically, the BOE could ‘help’ by carrying out a rates pivot – and again it means disaster. Or the government could tighten fiscal policy against the current backdrop – disaster. Or it could loosen fiscal policy via more tax-cuts – we already see the market views this as a disaster. You can see why even neoliberals, and investors in UK assets, are back-tracking.

It’s not that neoliberalism didn’t have a good run. It won the Cold War via consumer and public borrowing the USSR could not match. It brought decades of global peace and prosperity (interspersed by US invasions, bombings, and drone strikes). It just also has a nasty tendency to collapse into the flames of war now and then, as in the 1910s, 20s and 1930s, and again today.

Let’s focus on the market scepticism of 1980’s neoliberalism for 2022 Britain:

Will the money the wealthy are to be given be channelled into supplies of energy and industry? Not the former, which fuels the latter, because the pay-off is uncertain. While we need fossil fuels now, we ostensibly won’t need them in 10 years or so. So, why invest tens of billions? Green energy also requires fossil fuel for its inputs, or new/rare minerals the UK does not produce. In both cases, the economy remains structurally hamstrung on the supply side.
Will the extra money the wealthy are to be given be channelled into a military response to Russia’s mobilisation, as PM Truss rightly argues, “Freedom must be better armed than tyranny”? No. The latter is up to the government, which is increasing defence spending to 3% of GDP – without the taxes to fund it. And yet this is not the 1980s. The UK has large debts and little industry. The other side has low debts and huge industry, and key commodities. The West cannot ‘beat them without fighting’ with state spending as rates rise, or with consumer spending; and we *are* already literally ‘fighting them’ across different dimensions. (US rate hikes are doing a good job though.)
Will the new money be saved? Perhaps. But if so, will UK banks lend it to the above sectors only? No. They don’t do that kind of thing anymore. The money might flow back into Gilts given yields are soaring: but in that case the government is doing all the heavy lifting, while paying 5.75% interest on top for no reason.
Will the tax-cut money be spent? If so, welcome to higher inflation and rates! Or perhaps the wealthy will buy a new, larger house, and screw the energy bills. That’ll show the Russians!

As markets are showing, this is not a British, but a global problem. It is rooted in a neoliberal ‘lower for longer’, financialized economy facing up to much higher rates driven by a structural real economy supply-side shock. Indeed, markets risk replaying 1987, 1994, 1997, 2000, 2008, the Arab Spring, 2012, 2015, and 2020 all at the same time. As flagged in January, this is a global metacrisis.

Europe is grappling with an energy crisis the IOGP sees lasting for 3-5 years, as NordStream 1 gas supply goes down, perhaps under sabotage; a German recession; a Russian mobilization; the need to re-arm; and key German firms like VW and others saying they will stop local production if energy prices don’t decline. And it has a new Italian government to complicate EU decision-making. The new Italian PM is no neoliberal.

Italian 10-year yields were +14bp to 4.55% on Monday vs. 1.05% at the start of the year. The ECB talked vaguely about its toolkit to cap yields, but Lagarde also said would not fix “policy errors”: was she referring to Italy, her rate hikes, or decades of neoliberalism? She also decried EU governments for spending, making her rates task more difficult. Yet would it be better if energy prices soared, and inflation with it? Disaster or disaster – you choose.

In Australia, the RBA keeps promising to under-arm bowl its base rate not much higher than 2.50% and to soon move back to tiny 25bp hikes to save the housing market. It risks following in the UK’s policy wake with a lag. AUD is sagging, trading below 0.6450 this morning, and Aussie yields are being dragged towards their June peak (with 10s at 4.08% vs. a 4.20% 2022 high and 3s at a new 2022 high of 3.77%), and the RBA’s credibility is being dragged through the mud.

In the US, as the Fed hikes, the stock market and housing market crumble. Meanwhile, President Biden is telling US companies to cut pump prices of gasoline, when their margins are only 2c a litre on retail sales, and the Democrats are pitching that the government should buy and sell up to half of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (the remaining half, presumably) to keep energy prices down. The Buy Low and Sell High Act would obligate purchases below $60 and sales above $90, as well as massively expand stockpiles of refined products across the country (at a time of no spare refinery capacity). None of this oil would be allowed to be exported to China, or nations under US sanctions. Whether it passes or not, this shows a further breakdown in neoliberal thought, and takes us back to deglobalised, price-constrained markets that were once normal for many commodities.

Meanwhile, it’s not just the West seeing things crumble.

Iran faces country-wide street protests. It’s possible, if unlikely, the regime could fall. Certainly, the young generation seem as keen on Tehran’s leadership as young Britons are in the Tories.

There were also wild –wrong!– rumors on China over the weekend, where CNY was officially fixed above 7 for the first time since 2020 yesterday, and fresh lows await. Everyone is grasping at air as to where this all stops: I used to say 7.75, where the HK$ used to sit, and 8.28, where CNY used to be pegged to the dollar, but that was just a directional anchor. Worse, pork prices are surging, apparently up 30% y-o-y last week, prompting more dips into the Strategic Pork Reserve.

As Russia’s Ukraine referendums/territorial grab comes to a close this evening, its matching mobilisation appears unpopular: martial law and closed borders ahead remains the rumour. Economists @mironov_fm and @itskhoki argue the maths says up to 1m men may be mobilised. While that seems a small number for Russia, because of the demographic hole of the 90s and early 2000s, there are now only 7.3m men aged 20-29, many of whom are about to be killed, injured, or flee abroad. Other reports make clear the weight of conscription will fall outside Moscow and St. Petersburg, where Russia’s extractive industries are found. The short-term economic impact could therefore be as catastrophic as the long-term demographic one. Some are even talking about the threat this could pose to the entire Russian state ahead.

While not underplaying what the Russians may ultimately prove capable of if they mobilise, the tale of an Estonian conscript’s week in 1984’s Soviet Army is still instructive. To avoid shooting-range duty, without bullets, he takes army vegetables to a school in exchange for used squat toilets; these are taken to an apartment construction site, and he is told where to find discarded timber, with which he builds a cabin for an officer. Then he installs bathtubs in the apartments, which allows the theft of a Finnish bathtub for an officer in exchange for stolen jet fuel; the Soviet bathtub swapped for it is to transport vegetable scraps from the army to a pig farm – but there are no longer any vegetables; so he steals potatoes from a collective farm using tools stolen from farmers and the fire brigade. Half go to fill the army’s ration stores; the rest are divided among officers, and sold privately as “dacha grown”, or swapped for sugar or Finnish chocolate.

In short, it’s not just neoliberalism that doesn’t work: Pepe Escobar, where art thou?

If there is anything that does work now, it is long cash and the US dollar. The neoliberal trade was to sell the DXY at 105, 110, but who knows where it now stops: 115? We were at 114.5 at one point yesterday! 120? Why not? But why stop there?

There is naturally market chatter about a new ‘Plaza Accord’, which is not at all neoliberal, but serves those who want to see markets stabilize quickly. However, this also displays little grasp of the US-Japan relationship in the 1980s vs. the US-entire world today. How would the dollar be forced down against all major FX when US rates are going up, inflation is high, and the US is proving itself to be the least dirty shirt in the dirty laundry basket?

At some point, this will become directly geopolitical, not markets driven. The Fed will throw out swap-lines to stabilise other markets. Yet this will NOT happen on “neoliberal” or global terms. Rather, the deal will be for US friends only, and as part of a realignment of supply chains that favours the US. It might even happen under the auspices of a digital dollar to reinforce the muscle of the Eurodollar system even further.

As an example of what this might entail, in order to get the nuclear subs underpinning the AUKUS pact as soon as possible, Australia is reportedly expected to pay to expand *US* ship-building capacity, the product of which will flow south, before it makes its own. Will the US also now get European heavy industry and high value-added auto manufacturing, alongside high-end semiconductors? And that alongside slices of off-shored Chinese production flowing to it and to Mexico? Tell me how the US doesn’t without using neoliberal terms like “because markets”.

Then tell me how this impacts assets without using neoliberal terms like “because markets”.

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Three gas lines, one being Nordstream 2 and two from Nordstream i are no doubt sabotaged as they all experienced a huge pressure drop

(zerohedge)

Damage To Nord Stream Pipelines “Unprecedented;” May Have Been ‘Sabotaged’

Blasts Detected Near Nord Stream As Images Reveal “Huge Leak”

CIA Warned Germany Of Possible Nord Stream Pipeline Attack

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 02:45 PM

Update (1445ET):

German magazine Spiegel said the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) recently warned Berlin about the increasing signs of a possible planned attack on the Nord Stream pipeline system.

Spiegel reported, citing unnamed sources, that the CIA tipped off Berlin in the summer about possible attacks on NS1 and NS2.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1574826293677285376&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fdamage-nord-stream-pipelines-unprecedented-may-have-been-sabotaged&sessionId=64e1e952eda93e9108f455e58927d845ddbfa316&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=true&id=1574826592865423360&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fdamage-nord-stream-pipelines-unprecedented-may-have-been-sabotaged&sessionId=64e1e952eda93e9108f455e58927d845ddbfa316&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

* * *

Update (1415 ET):

Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen told reporters Nord Stream pipeline system damage to NS1 and NS2 “are deliberate actions, not an accident.”

“It is now the clear assessment by authorities that these are deliberate actions. It was not an accident.

“There is no information yet to indicate who may be behind this action, Frederiksen said, adding that authorities don’t see NS1 and NS2 damage as a military threat against Denmark.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1574823827015700499&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fdamage-nord-stream-pipelines-unprecedented-may-have-been-sabotaged&sessionId=64e1e952eda93e9108f455e58927d845ddbfa316&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

* * *

Update (1215ET):

CNN’s White House and national security reporter Natasha Bertrand said the Biden administration “is not going to speculate on the cause” of the Nord Stream pipeline system damage to NS1 and NS2.

“The US stands ready to support European partners’ efforts as they investigate,” Bertrand said.

Another CNN national security reporter, Kylie Atwood, tweeted that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it would be “in no one’s interest” if NS leaks were confirmed as the result of an attack or sabotage.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-3&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1574791417049882626&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fdamage-nord-stream-pipelines-unprecedented-may-have-been-sabotaged&sessionId=64e1e952eda93e9108f455e58927d845ddbfa316&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

Remember what Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said earlier this year…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-4&features=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%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1574767709258137606&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fdamage-nord-stream-pipelines-unprecedented-may-have-been-sabotaged&sessionId=64e1e952eda93e9108f455e58927d845ddbfa316&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1bfeb5c3714e8%3A1661975971032&width=550px

* * *

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 09:56 AM

Update (1025ET):

AFP News reported the US is ‘ready to provide support’ to Europe after the Nord Stream pipeline system leaks.

There was no further information on what type of support, but one can only imagine it would involve increased LNG cargo shipments to the EU.

There’s only one issue…

And then watch these floating hindenburgs encounter unexpected if catastrophic “events” as they sail to Europe https://t.co/aoMOWxWDry— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 26, 2022

end

Update (0842ET):

Sweden’s government held a crisis management meeting with other public authorities over the damage to the Nord Stream pipeline system, Swedish daily newspaper Aftonbaldet said, citing comments from Foreign Minister Ann Linde.

Linde said Sweden may discuss the pipeline damage with Denmark later today.

Denmark is tightening security around all energy assets as some European officials speculate the NS pipeline system was sabotaged.

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 07:46 AM

The plot thickens about what caused damage to three lines of the Nord Stream gas-pipeline system under the Baltic Sea to Europe as some European officials now suspect sabotage.

Nord Stream AG, the operator of the NS pipeline system, published a statement Tuesday that read, “the destruction that happened within one day at three lines of the Nord Stream pipeline system is unprecedented … and impossible now to estimate the timeframe for restoring operations of the gas shipment infrastructure.”

On Monday, NS2 gas pipeline and two NS1 lines reported rapid pressure drops, with gas leaks reported by Swedish and Danish authorities in the Baltic Sea near the exclusive economic zone southeast of Bornholm island.

Pressure drops in the NS gas-pipeline system could be the biggest signal that flows via NS1 might not resume this winter. Germany and surrounding countries are investigating the incident. NS2 cannot impact flows to the EU because the controversial idled conduit was never operational after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz canceled it after Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year.

Klaus Mueller, the president of the German energy network regulator, tweeted that the market situation remains “tense,” but Germany and the EU are no longer dependent on NS supplies.

Nord Stream AG issued an outage message that is active until Oct. 26, while the German economy ministry said it’s investigating the incident.

Dutch front-month gas, the European benchmark, was up nearly 10% at 190.50 euros per megawatt-hour on Tuesday morning.

The simultaneous pressure drop of the NS lines suggests some market participants may watch for any indication of sabotage.

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said it was hard to imagine NS gas leaks were caused by a “coincidence.”

Frederiksen didn’t rule out sabotage, though she said it was too early to draw any conclusions, according to Reuters, quoting public broadcaster DR during a visit to Poland.

A German security official told Bloomberg that NS damage appears to be the result of “sabotage.”

The evidence points to a violent act, rather than a technical issue, according to a German security official, who asked not to be identified because the matter is being probed. -Bloomberg

German daily newspaper Tagesspiegel reported that “the Nord Stream pipelines may have been damaged by targeted attacks and leaked as a result.”

A source close to the government, quoted in the newspaper, said, “everything speaks against a coincidence.”

“We cannot imagine a scenario that is not a targeted attack,” the source said.

Die Welt, another German newspaper, reported the timing of the NS damage may suggest sabotage and was unlikely to be an accident.

Reporters asked Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov if the NS system’s pressure drop could be due to sabotage. He responded: “It is impossible to exclude any options.”

There appears to be no immediate end to the gas leak from NS pipelines, according to the Danish national daily newspaper Berlingske, which quoted Danish Energy Authority.

The energy authority said, “a lot of gas is coming out, so it is not a small crack, it’s a really big hole. Nord Stream leaks can be a deliberate act, but it can also be something else, it’s just extremely rare that something like this happens.”

*Developing…

END

In Dramatic Escalation, European Nat Gas Prices Soar After Gazprom Warns Ukraine Flows At Risk

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 12:19 PM

In a day of constant news surrounding European gas flows, including the potential sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, moments ago, Russia state-owned gas giant Gazprom PJSC warned that another major source of gas flows to Europe was at risk, just hours after three massive gas pipelines were hit by suspected sabotage.

As Bloomberg reports, in a dramatic escalation of the energy standoff between Russia and Europe in little over 24 hours, the Nord Stream pipeline was knocked out by what German officials said looked like sabotage. Gazprom then said that one of two remaining routes bringing gas to Europe – via Ukraine – was at risk because of a legal spat.

Specifically, as Reuters notes, Gazprom rejected all claims from Ukraine’s energy firm Naftogaz in arbitration proceedings over Russian gas transit, and had notified the arbitration court. It also said that Russia may introduce sanctions against Naftogaz in case it further pursues the arbitration case, meaning Gazprom would be prohibited by the sanctions from paying Ukraine the transit fees.

Naftogaz had initiated a new arbitration proceeding against Gazprom earlier this month, saying the Russian company did not pay for the rendered service of gas transportation through Ukraine. The company had said “funds were not paid by Gazprom, neither on time nor in full” for the gas transit.

Gazprom said on Tuesday that Naftogaz had no “appropriate reasons” to reject its obligations on transit via the Sokhranovka point, a key route for Russian gas exports to Europe.

In May, Ukraine suspended the flow of gas through Sokhranovka, which it said delivers almost a third of the fuel piped from Russia to Europe through Ukraine, blaming Moscow for the move and saying it would move the flows elsewhere.

Following the report that Russia may soon halt natgas transit via Ukraine, gas prices quickly jumped almost 20% as traders factored in the prospect that Europe will have to live without Russian gas this winter – and beyond.

Gazprom said that a legal dispute risks prompting Moscow to sanction Ukraine’s Naftogaz. If that happened, then Gazprom would be unable to pay transit fees, the company said on Telegram, putting at risk flows.

“In practice, this will mean a ban on Gazprom from fulfilling obligations to sanctioned bodies under completed transactions, including financial transactions,” the company said.

If, or rather when, supplies through Ukraine are shut down, it would leave Gazprom sending gas only via the TurkStream pipeline to Turkey and a handful of European countries that haven’t severed business ties with Russia.

end

Oil surges after Russia proposes a huge 1 million barrel output cut

Oil Surges After Russia Proposes 1 Million Barrel OPEC+ Output Cut

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 10:03 AM

Yesterday, as oil prices were tumbling to fresh 2022 lows despite a major hot war taking place and collapsing energy CapEx which virtually assures a crippling energy crisis in the next 5-10 years, we asked if OPEC+ would “wait until tomorrow to drop the output hammer or will they go today.”

Well, they waited until tomorrow, because moments ago Reuters reported that following recent media reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia would likely cut output if Brent drops below $90, OPEC+ dropped the trial balloon of what comes next:

RUSSIA WILL LIKELY PROPOSE OPEC+ REDUCES OUTPUT BY AROUND 1 MLN BPD AT NEXT MEETING – SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH RUSSIAN THINKING

As Oilprice adds, the news comes just a day after comments made at Monday’s APPEC’s oil conference that suggested global oil stocks are set to rise next year amid weak demand and a strong dollar—and that OPEC would have to cut output if they wanted to keep prices from falling further.

OPEC would have to make oil cuts between 500,000 and 1 million bpd to keep Brent above $90 per barrel, Gary Ross, chief executive of Black Gold Investors, said at the meeting on Monday.

Now Russia itself could recommend a million bpd cut—and as one of the two largest members of the OPEC+ group, the county’s recommendations hold weight.

The next OPEC+ meeting will be held on October 5, which will determine the output targets for November. It is also in November when the current batch of U.S. SPR releases, which have helped to prop up low oil inventories, will cease.

OPEC+ cut production targets for October by 100,000 bpd at the previous meeting, demonstrating its willingness—to respond to the changing oil markets in an expeditious manner.

And since most other OPEC+ sources will agree with Russia, oil has spiked with WTI surging more than 3% from $77.8 to just shy of $80.

And while Biden is still draining the SPR at an accelerated pace to minimize the Democrat rout in November, oil will likely fluctuate for the next two months at which point it will explode higher as the new post-SPR drain reality finally kicks in.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.96417 UP 0.0022 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL MIXED

USA/ YEN 144.32 DOWN 0.149 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.08.08 UP 0.0043

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 42.64 PTS OR 1.40%

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 5.17 PTS OR 0.03%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.55% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 5.17 PTS OR 0.03%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 42.64 PTS OR 1.40%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.44%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 140.32 PTS OR 0.53%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1641.15

silver:$18.75

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 113.52 DOWN 50 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.32% UP 15 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.237% DOWN 1 AND 0/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.42%// UP 13 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.74 UP 40 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.228% UP 14 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.9627 UP .0008 or 8 basis points

USA/Japan: 144.58 UP 0.119 OR YEN DOWN 12 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.0782 UP .0016 OR 16BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0008 OR 8BASIS pts to 1.3722

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 7.1779

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.1803

TURKISH LIRA: 18.49 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.237

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.953% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.801 UP 10 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 113.81 DOWN 0.21 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 231.02 PTS OR 0.44%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 6.43 POINTS OR 0.11%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 69.59 PTS OR 0.57%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 52.70OR 0.70%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 177.99PTS OR 0.84%

WTI Oil price 78.50 12: EST

Brent Oil: 86,23 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 58.41 DOWN 0 AND 2/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.228

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9593 DOWN .0027 OR 27 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.0721 DOWN .0043 or 43 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.83 UP 0.357//YEN DOWN 36 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3725 UP 0.0012 (CDN dollar, DOWN 12 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 78.61

Brent OIL: 86.28

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS pts to 3.972%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 16 BASIS PTS to 3.851%

USA dollar index:114.16 up 14 basis pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.44

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 58.46 down 0 AND 2/100 ROUBLES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 125.82 PTS OR 0.43 %

NASDAQ 100 UP 17.64 PTS OR 0.16%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 32.72 UP 0.46 PTS (1.43)%

GLD: $151.54 UP 0.30 OR 0.20%

SLV/ $16.96 DOWN 0.02 CENTS OR 0.12%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

1932, 1974, 2008… And Today: Stocks Enter Meltdown “Crash Pattern”

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 04:11 PM

Another day, another yield-driven market shock, and another down day for the S&P which is now lower for 6 consecutive days, the longest stretch since February 2020 when the world was about to shut down (worse, as the last chart at the bottom of this post show, stocks are now officially in meltdown pattern mode… read on).

For those who don’t see the pattern yet, it’s simple: with central banks seeing who can outhawk each other the most every day, even as their governments vow to go into a debt-funded fiscal overdrive at a time of rising rates and QT, yields are predictably surging, and real yields are surging even more with real 10Ys hitting 1.63% today, the highest since April 2010. And since real yields track fwd PEs, it’s getting uglier and uglier in risk land. Alas, it will likely get much uglier, as fwd PEs could drop as low as 12x.

Throw in some mild recession E of around 200-210 and you end up with S&P around 2400, a 50% drop from the market’s all time high this January.

Of course, it’s unlikely that the Fed will allow all of its wealth effect legacy to be wiped out just because it can’t grasp that CPI and PCEs are backward-looking data sets, but at the current pace stocks still certainly keep making new closing 2022 lows until the Fed is confident that inflation has been defeated (which of course is idiotic since the moment the Fed pivots, all commodity hell will break loose).

Still, even though stocks are tumbling the story for the past week has not been equities, but rather bonds and soaring yields: after all, just earlier today – after the latest dismal 5Y TSY auction – 10Y yields rose above 3.99% and while they have since eased a bit, it is almost certain that we will have a 4-handle on the 10Y at some point tomorrow…

… just like the 30Y gilt earlier today rose above 5%, a level not seen since 2022 in what may be the scariest bond chart a generation has ever seen.

The big question is how much longer can the Vix, and stocks, ignore what is going on in bond land, and which way will this historic divergence close: with MOVE collapsing (i.e., QE) or with VIX exploding higher (i.e., a 2008-like global crash).

And while we wait for the answer, we should note that the Bloomberg dollar index once again caught a bid, because just as it seemed like foreign denominated USD-creditors may finally get a break, the dollar spiked higher and was set to close at a fresh record high for the sixth day in a row.

Any other day this ongoing, crushing meltup in the dollar would have been sufficient to nuke oil, today news that Russia had proposed a 1mmb/d output cut for the OPEC+ cartel was enough to prop up the energy sector…

… even if there was nobody to prop up cryptos, which after mysteriously surging yesterday as everything else crashed, tumbled on Tuesday back to pre-meltup levels.

But while we have seen the movie above on many previous occasions, the big risk – and where things are really starting to break – is in credit land with the Investment Grade tumbling to a fresh post-Lehman crisis low.

Perhaps the market is starting to notice that something will break very soon at this rate, and as a result after hitting 90%, the odds of a 75bps November rate hikes have slumped to just two thirds, the lowest since last week’s rate hike.

Something tells us that these rate hike odds will tumble sharply over the next month, because as someone pointed out on twitter, the S&P 500 has dropped at least 0.75% for 5 straight days to a 52-week low…. and then dropped again.

That only happened during the meltdowns in 1932, 1974, and 2008…and today.

If the historical pattern holds, it is good news: we are very close to the bottom… the bad news: there could still well be a lot more pain in the next 1-3 months, but by month 6 we should be in the clear. In other words, Hartnett’s forecast that the bear market may trough some time in October looks increasingly spot on.

And while Powell may pretend – and even believe – he is Volcker 2.0, once the pitchforks appear in front of the Marriner Eccles building, and once millions of Americans are laid off every month, we doubt the former millionaire private-equity lawyer will have any interesting in perpetuating this hilarious charade.

END

I) / EARLY MORNING// TRADING//

Stocks Crater To Fresh 2022 Lows As Yields Soar, UK 30Y Yield Goes Vertical

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 12:41 PM

For the second day in a row, a feeble attempt to lift risk assets overnight has fizzled dramatically, as what was a modest drop in yields has reversed completely, sending the 10Y TSY surging above 3.97% – reaching levels not seen since 2010 – and just shy of 4.00%, a critical level which will be crossed shortly…

… while across the pond, in an even more remarkable move, the 30Y Gilt soared another 50bps today (the second day in a row), pushing the yield above 5.00%…

… the highest level since 2002, and an increase which is simply stunning: the 30Y was trading at 1.0% at the start of the year… it is now 5%!

And with yields exploding, the dollar of course can’t be far behind, and sure enough the BBDXY is back to record highs after a tentative – and now rejected – attempt to dip lower earlier…

… which of course means that the “market break” that Morgan Stanley warned about yesterday, is getting closer with every passing uptick in the USD.

… and since the market is well aware that for stocks to soar, they have to crash even more first, that’s precisely what they are doing, with the VIX suddenly taking off and rising ab over 33 to a 3 month high…

… spoos have tumbled below 3,640, down almost 100 points from session highs, and below the June intraday lows meaning that stocks just hit the lowest level since November 2000, while the Nasdaq has made another grotesque reversal and after being more than 1% higher in earlier trading is now down more than 2%.

end

AFTERNOON TRADING

BONDS

trouble ahead!!

Gruesome, Tailing 2Y Auction Sends Yields To Session High, 10Y At 3.99%

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 01:20 PM

One day after a dismal 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury held another dismal auction , this time for 5Y paper, which just like yesterday immediately sent yields to session highs.

Today’s sale of $44BN in 5Y paper priced at a high yield of 4.228%, some 100bps higher than August’s 3.220%, and the highest since the global financial crisis. The auction was also a 2.6bps tail to the 4.202% When Issued, one of the biggest tails on record.

The bid to cover was 2.26, the lowest since Feb 2021, and down from the already dire 2.30 last month.

The internals were just a bit better, with Indirects at 59.6%, below last month’s 61.18% and also below the six-auction average of 61.9%, if above June’s low of 56.5%. And with Directs awarded 18.7%, or just around the recent average of 19.0%, Dealers were left holding 21.7%, the highest since June.

Overall, this was another catastrophic TSY auction coming at a time when every day we see more blow ups in bonds around the world, and sure enough the 10Y promptly spiked to session highs, rising just above 3.99% if not crossing 4.00% just yet.

ii) USA DATA/

Durable Goods Drop Most Since February On Transportation Weakness Offset By Strong Core CapEx

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 08:59 AM

Following the June surge, which led to a modest July drop, durable goods were expected to slow further by sliding -0.3% M/M, and moments ago we learned that indeed in August durable goods slid -0.2%, fractionally above expectations if still the biggest sequential drop since February, however on a YoY basis, growth rebounded back to double digits, rising 11.2% after July’s 9.2%.

The drop was largely due to a -1.1% decline in Transportation Equipment new orders. Ex-Transports, durable goods orders rose 0.2% MoM, in line with expectations.

There was better news in the value of Capital Goods New Orders Nondefense Ex Aircraft & Parts – a proxy for capital expenditure – which rose a solid 1.3% after an upwardly revised 0.7% advance; it beat the 0.2% expectation.

Also notable: while Nondefense aircraft and parts (i.e., regular airplanes) saw a -18.5% drop in new orders to $13.3BN, this was offset by a Defense 31.2% surge in Defense aircraft new orders, as the series jumped to the 2nd highest of 2022. Finally, the Ukraine war is paying off for the MIC.

So despite headline weakness, durable goods confirm a strong economy, suggesting the Fed will stay hawkish. That said, all of this data is nominal – not adjusted for inflation – so adjust your euphoria at the ‘economic’ strength accordingly.

.

END

House prices drop due to affordability: the bubble bursts

(zerohedge)

The Housing Bubble Has Officially Burst : Case-Shiller Records First Drop In Home Prices Since 2012

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 09:33 AM

Analysts expected Case-Shiller Home Price growth to continue its modest deceleration in August (the latest available data in this heavily lagged and smoothed data set), but the result was a doozy: the 20-City Composite index tumbled 0.44% MoM, far below the 0.20% expected increase, and a sharp decline from the downward revised 0.19% increase in July; more importantly, this was the first sequential drop in home prices tracked by Case-Shiller since March 2012, or ten and a half years.

On a Y/Y basis, home prices rose just 16.06%, down from 18.66% YoY in July, and missing expectations of a 17.1% increase. The headline national average price index rose 15.77% YoY in August.

Comments confirmed that the mood is dismal and turning uglier by the day: “Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July’s report reflects a forceful deceleration,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI.

“For example, while the National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price rise in June was 18.1%. The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index. We saw similar patterns in our 10-City Composite (up 14.9% in July vs. 17.4% in June) and our 20-City Composite (up 16.1% in July vs. 18.7% in June). On a month-over-month basis, all three composites declined in July.”

“The theme of strong but decelerating prices was reflected across all 20 cities. July’s year-over-year price change was positive for each one of the 20 cities, with a median gain of 15.0%, but in every case July’s gain was less than June’s. Prices declined in 12 cities on a month-to-month basis. Tampa (+31.8%) narrowly edged Miami (+31.7%) to remain at the top of the league table for the fifth consecutive month, with Dallas (+24.7%) holding on to third place. As has been the case for the last several months, price growth was strongest in the Southeast (+27.5%) and South (+26.9%).

Lazzara concluded by noting that “as the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day. Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate.”

Finally, we note that drops such as this are absolutely critical to avoid a total implosion in the housing sector, whose affordability just hit a record low last month, but managed to rebound modestly in July, as a result of dropping prices. That said, prices will have to drop by a lot more if housing is again to become affordable to ordinary Americans.

New Home Sales Unexpectedly Soar With Second Biggest Increase On Record

TUESDAY, SEP 27, 2022 – 10:36 AM

After last month’s jarring 12.6% tumble, which sent the SAAR to the lowest level since Jan 2016, US new home sales were expected to slide again if at a far more moderate pace: instead, we got another shocker because just minutes after Case-Shiller confirmed the first sequential drop in US home prices since 2012, the Census Bureau reported that in August, new homes unexpectedly soared by 28.8% – the 2nd biggest monthly increase on record (only behind the 30.6% spike in June 2020) smashing expectations of a -2.2% drop, and a massive reversal from last month’s upward revised -8.6% drop.

And so after 6 declines in the past 7 months, the actual SAAR number of new home sales exploded higher from 532K, the lowest in six years, to 685K, the highest since March!

Thanks to the unexpected surge in sales, the supply of new homes – which last month hit the highest since 2009 – collapse by more than 2 months, to just 8.1 months of supply.

And as one would expect, the surge in sales took place as both Median and Average new home sales prices dipped, if just modestly.

After hitting a record high of $466,300 just last month, the median new home price slumped 6.3% to $436,800 which still is one of the highest prices on record.

While the surge in new home sales is likely a delayed aftereffect of yields which dropped in the late summer and have since exploded to the highest level in a decade – which likely assures that next month we may well see the biggest drop in new home sales on record – the Fed will not be happy to see this latest surge in new home sales which will be a sign that even more tightening is required.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Several years ago, I reported on this story where the FBI broke into a 1400 safe deposit boxes at a private vault in Beverly Hills. Now the story is getting out on the $86 million in cash and other goodies seized by these crooks

(zerohedge)

FBI Misled Judge, Then Seized $86 Million In Cash From Beverly Hills Safe-Deposit Boxes

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 07:20 PM

The FBI ‘drilled and pried’ their way into 1,400 safe-deposit boxes at a private vault company in Beverly Hills after misleading a judge about their plan to permanently confiscate everything inside every box containing at least $5,000 in cash or goods, a senior FBI agent recently testified.

They rummaged through personal belongings of a jazz saxophone player, an interior designer, a retired doctor, a flooring contractor, two Century City lawyers and hundreds of others.

Agents took photos and videos of pay stubs, password lists, credit cards, a prenuptial agreement, immigration and vaccination records, bank statements, heirlooms and a will, court records show. In one box, agents found cremated human remains. –LA Times

The FBI and US attorney’s office in Los Angeles justified the 5-day dragnet forfeiture at the US Private Vaults store by assuming that hundreds of anonymous box holders were storing assets somehow tied to unknown crimes.

At the end of the operation, agents had recovered more than $86 million in cash, and a ‘bonanza’ of gold, silver, rare coins, jewelry and other items of value.

Now, around 700 box holders who aren’t implicated in any crimes liken the raid to police barging into a building’s 700 apartments and taking every tenant’s possessions when the only evidence of wrongdoing is against the landlord.

The plaintiffs in the class-action suit have asked U.S. District Judge R. Gary Klausner to declare the raid unconstitutional. If he grants the request, it could force the FBI to return millions of dollars to box holders whose assets it has tried to confiscate.

It could also spoil an unknown number of criminal investigations by blocking prosecutors from using any evidence or information acquired in the raid, including guns and drugs. -LA Times

“The government did not know what was in those boxes, who owned them, or what, if anything, those people had done,” said their lawyer, Robert Frommer. “That’s why the warrant application did not even attempt to argue there was probable cause to seize and forfeit box renters’ property.”

After the raid, the FBI posted a notice in the store window where customers could claim their property. Those who came forward had their bank records, state tax returns, DMV files and criminal histories investigated, agents testified.

Since the raid, the US attorney’s office has attempted to block public disclosure of court papers which revealed the government’s deception – however a judge rejected their request to keep them under seal.

The origins of the raid date back to 2015, when local detectives and federal agents spotted drug suspects walking in and out of US Private Vaults, located in an upscale strip mall. Customers, who could rent boxes anonymously, entered the store’s vault using a biometric eye scan according to a LA County sheriff’s deputy.

By 2019, the feds and local law enforcement were able to search more than a dozen boxes, from which around $5 million was seized from five drug dealers, a bookie and a debit card thief. Then, the FBI began investigating the business itself – charging them with conspiracy to sell drugs and launder money, using a precious-metals store next door to help drug dealers launder cash by converting it to gold and silver, which was then stashed in their anonymous boxes. The company pleaded guilty to a conspiracy to launder drug money in an ongoing investigation.

Both the FBI and US attorney’s office have denied misleading the judge or ignoring his conditions – claiming that they had no obligation to tell him about their plan for indiscriminate confiscations based on the blanket assumption that every customer was hiding assets tied to potential crimes.

According to FBI spokeswoman Laura Eimiller, the warrants were lawfully executed “based on allegations of widespread criminal wrongdoing,” adding “At no time was a magistrate misled as to the probable cause used to obtain the warrants.”

How the FBI worked the system

FBI agent Lynne Zellhart, a former Sacramento attorney, made sweeping allegations of criminal wrongdoing by box holders – arguing that it would be “irrational” for anyone not breaking the law to store assets at US Private Vaults, when a bank could better safeguard them.

“Only those who wish to hide their wealth from the DEA, IRS, or creditors would” rent a box anonymously at US Private Vaults, she wrote.

But the FBI’s evidence against customers was thin.

Agents had seen some of them pull up to the store in vehicles with Nevada, Ohio and Illinois license plates, Zellhart wrote.

“Based on my training and experience in money laundering investigations, Chicago, Illinois is a hub of both drug trafficking and money laundering,” she said. “I believe these patrons were using their USPV box to store drug proceeds.” She cited no facts to back up the suspicion. -LA Times

In fact, Zellhart only mentioned nine box holders who she said were “linked” or “associated” with law enforcement investigations – and again provided no facts specifying criminal conduct.

To provide cover for the fact that innocent box holders might be swept up, she admitted that US Private Vaults tried “to attract a non-criminal clientele as well, so as not to be too obvious a haven for criminals.”

At her deposition, Zellhart was asked, “Was it your opinion that most of the people who rented safe-deposit boxes were criminals in some way?” to which she replied “I was expecting a lot of criminals,” adding “I don’t know about most.”

The FBI assured US Magistrate Judge Steve Kim that the FBI would respect customers’ rights based on the affidavit’s 84th and 85th pages, written by assistant US attorney Andrew Brown, who underlined the government’s lack of evidence to justify any criminal search of the customers’ property.

“The warrants authorize the seizure of the nests of the boxes themselves, not their contents,” Brown’s section of the affidavit read. “By seizing the nests of safety deposit boxes themselves, the government will necessarily end up with custody of what is inside those boxes initially.”

The affidavit told Kim that agents would “follow their written inventory policies” and “attempt to notify the lawful owners of the property stored in the boxes how to claim their property.”

Under FBI policy, it said, inspection of each box would “extend no further than necessary to determine ownership.” But agents’ inspection of the boxes went substantially further — just as the government planned, according to FBI records filed in court.

By the time Kim got the warrant request, the FBI had been preparing an enormous forfeiture operation for at least six months, according to Jessie Murray, the chief of the FBI’s asset forfeiture unit in Los Angeles. -LA Times

Under US forfeiture laws, the government must have evidence that it was derived from criminal conduct or used to facilitate it.

Judge Kim was explicit in limiting the scope of the raid, writing: “This warrant does not authorize a criminal search or seizure of the contents of the safety deposit boxes.” He then gave the FBI permission to take inventory of box contents to protect against accusations of theft, and then ordered agents to notify owners not implicated in crimes so that they could recover their property.

$400 Billion!? Biden Student Loan Forgiveness To Cost Far More Than Initial Estimate

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 05:20 PM

President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan will cost at least $400 billion over three decades, blowing away initial estimates of $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated.

The plan, a handout for the middle and upper classes (and will only raise GDP by 0.1%), will provide debt relief of $10,000 per borrower, subject to income caps of $125,000 per individual or $250,000 per household – while Pell Grant recipients will receive an additional $10,000 of forgiveness, Bloomberg reports.

According to the CBO, the moves will cancel $430 billion in overall debt – while Biden’s suspension of student loan payments through the end of 2022 could cost an additional $20 billion – notwithstanding changes Biden’s administration has made to income-driven repayment plans, which the Committee for an Responsible Federal Budget pegged at an additional $120 billion.

Around 40 million Americans could receive some level of student loan relief under the plan – with half potentially having their entire debt canceled, according to the White House.

Roughly 8 million borrowers, whose income is already on file at the department, will have their loans automatically forgiven without having to apply, according to the Education Department. Everyone else will have to apply in early October, when the agency expects to release the form.

GOP lawmakers and state attorneys general have said they are exploring the possibility of a lawsuit to overturn the policy before it goes into effect. One conservative group, the Job Creators Network, has said it plans to sue the administration once the Education Department guidance is released. –WaPo

To put the plan in context, the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” which passed in August is estimated to reduce deficits over 10 years by $58 billion, with an additional $180 billion reduction factored in due to anticipated new tax revenue from more audits.

“This might be the most costly executive action in history,” said CRFB President Maya MacGuineas in a statement, adding “It’s unacceptable that the President would implement it without offsets and without Congressional approval.”

The CBO report was requested by Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) amid criticism from GOP lawmakers, who say the debt forgiveness plan is unfair to students who have paid off their loans, and taxpayers who never attended college.

KING REPORT

The King Report September 27, 2022 Issue 6851

Independent View of the News

Real and threatened intervention saved the markets on Monday.

China Steps Up Yuan Support as Currency Nears Weakest Since 2008
China made it more expensive to bet against the yuan with derivatives, ramping up support for the currency as it slides toward the weakest level against the dollar since the 2008 global financial crisis.
    The People’s Bank of China said Monday it’ll impose a risk reserve requirement of 20% on currency forward sales by banks. Since August, the central bank has sought to limit the yuan’s losses through its daily reference rate as well as demanding that lenders set aside more foreign exchange as reserves…
    The onshore yuan fell 0.4% to 7.1588 per dollar at 5:39 pm local time, taking its year-to-date loss to over 11%. If it deprecates past 7.1854 per dollar, it would be the weakest since early 2008…
https://www.yahoo.com/now/china-reinstates-risk-reserves-derivatives-020037883.html

BOJ Buys More Bonds Than Planned as Yield Nears CeilingCentral bank bought 550 billion yen of five-to-10-year notesYield on Japan’s 10-year note close to tolerated 0.25% levelThe Bank of Japan buys more bonds at its regular operation, as the benchmark yield rises toward the upper end of the central bank’s tolerated trading range…   https://t.co/h3NJfP2ThT

Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
    The economic consequences for the euro area have continued to unfold since we last met in June and the outlook is darkening. Inflation remains far too high and is likely to stay above our target for an extended period… we expect activity to slow substantially in the coming quarters. There are four main reasons behind this. First, high inflation is dampening spending and production throughout the economy, and these headwinds are reinforced by gas supply disruptions. Second, the strong demand for services that came with the reopening of the economy is losing steam. Third, the weakening in global demand, also in the context of tighter monetary policy in many major economies, and the worsening terms of trade will mean less support for the euro area economy. Fourth, uncertainty remains high, as reflected in falling household and business confidence…
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2022/html/ecb.sp220926_1~0bd6fcc86c.en.html

After trading at an all-time low of 1.0327 to the dollar, the pound rebounded sharply on Monday when Sky News reported that the Bank of England would “very soon” make a statement on the forex markets.

The pound hit its all-time low at 21:00 ET and then soared to 109.31 at 8:45 ET.

ESZs rallied sharply with the pound. ESZs hit a low of 3672.50 at 2:13 ET and then soared to 3718.25 at 3:41 ET. ESZs then sank to a daily low of 3671.50 at 5:40 ET. They hit a new high of 3718.25 at 10 ET. Too many traders are still conditioned to play for the Monday rally and to buy early US declines. Alas, institutions, and saner angels are in sell everything mode. Ergo, ESZs tumbled to 3657.50 at 13:25 ET.

A 21-handle ESZ rally materialized; it ended at 14:07 ET. After the VIX Fix, ESZs and stocks retreated.
After a modest decline, the pre-last hour rally, another ingrained trading pattern, commenced. ESZs jumped 23 handles in only 10 minutes. ESZs inched higher until the final hour arrived. ESZs then gyrated in a wide range until ESZs spiked higher with 7 minutes remaining in NYSE trading. Alas, sellers lurked; ESZs plunged 22 handles in 2 minutes!  ESZs sank 10 more handles into the close.

USZs traded a tad higher when Asian markets opened. They quickly commenced a decline that finally ended at 10:00 ET when USZs hit 127 17/32. After a modest rally, USZs and debt instruments headed south. The pound and USZs tumbled after the BoE issued an innocuous statement about the markets.

Bank of England says it won’t hesitate to hike rates after pound falls to historic low
“The Bank is monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of financial assets,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement. “The role of monetary policy is to ensure that demand does not get ahead of supply in a way that leads to more inflation over the medium term,” Bailey said…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/bank-of-england-monitoring-markets-very-closely-after-pound-falls.html

The 30-year Gilt soared 41bps, the largest 1-day yield gain on record. The US 2-year note hit 4.34%; the US 10-year yield jumped 10bps for the day.

@jsblokland: The 2-year UK Government Bond Yield is up a whopping 110 basis points in the last two(!) trading days.   https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1574469756152942593

Trillions of dollars trade on models that blowup when prices move beyond historic norms. For umpteen times over the past several decades, financial entities have blown up due to what their models viewed as ‘once in a hundred (or even thousand) years moves’ that have appeared regularly.

We have warned for eons that when US interest rates enter their first bear market in 40 years, the OTC derivative market would be ripe for ‘a problem’. As of May 12, 2022, the BIS estimates OTC derivatives at $606 trillion of notional value, which is the value if a derivative ‘goes into the money’.

Interest rate derivatives are $454.115 TRILLION. Forex is $93 trillion. If 2% of contracts exceed model-estimated thresholds, it’s a potential $9.8T problem. What if 5% or more exceed the outer limits?
https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/d5.1?f=pdf

Goldman Sachs begins layoffs, targeting mid-level bankers: report https://trib.al/IilNoCG

@WallStreetSilv: Credit Default Swaps on Credit Suisse is now at the peak reached during GFC 2008… This is the insurance cost against default on their bonds… which usually sit at the top of the capital structure… bank depositors sit at the bottom.  https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1574171896391688193

U.S. Congress negotiators set $12 bln for new Ukraine aid
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congress-negotiators-set-12-bln-new-ukraine-aid-2022-09-26/

Positive aspects of previous session
Afternoon equity rally

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds tumbled; equities declined sharply
The S&P 500 Index got within 8 points of its intraday June low
Soft US 2-yr auction ($43B): 4.29%, WI 4.274%; indirect bidders 53% vs. 6-previous avg 59.4%

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Who is in trouble? How many are in trouble?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3671.82
Previous session High/Low: 3715.67; 3644.76

Giorgia Meloni’s meteoric rise comes as Italian businesses and families struggle to pay soaring gas and electricity bills. https://fxn.ws/3fhiNHp

@DineshDSouza: In Italy, Giorgia Meloni is called “centrodesta” which means “center-right.” But the Western media calls her “far right,” which is more revealing of the Western media’s place on the ideological spectrum. From the vantage point of the far left, centrodesta appears to be far right.
    Here’s what Giorgia Meloni says at campaign rallies. “I am Giorgia. I am a woman. I am a mother. I am Italian, I am Christian. You will not take that away from me!” For this, the Left calls her a fascist and an heir to Mussolini. Italians don’t believe it, and we shouldn’t either

@GiorgiaMeloni: “We did not fight against and defeat communism in order to replace it with a new internationalist regime, but to permit independent nation states once again to defend the freedom, identity and sovereignty of their peoples.” https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1574401338100031492

@greg_price11: This is Italy’s new Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. I’ve never heard any politician so perfectly explain what we’re up against and why we fight. When you watch this video, you’ll quickly realize why the establishment is afraid of her.
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1574251105940377607

@PeterSweden7: Georgia Meloni has spent the last 2 years as the only politician in Italy fighting against the covid passports. Now the Italian people just elected her as Prime Minister

WSJ: Russia’s Annexation Moves, Nuclear Threats Raise Stakes in Ukraine
U.S. has banned use of its weapons against Russian territory but not against the occupied areas of Ukraine Putin now intends to annex
    The Ukraine war is entering a risky period in which the guardrails for averting military escalation between the U.S. and Russia are increasingly imperiled, US officials say… U.S. officials have declined to spell out publicly what steps would be taken if Russia uses nuclear weapons, though Mr. Sullivan said the U.S. has been more explicit to the Russians in private…
   “Putin is burning bridges behind him by mobilizing troops and holding sham referendums to annex Ukrainian territory. If his strategy doesn’t work, he may feel compelled to lash out.”…
    “I think the risk of nuclear escalation remains fairly low,” said Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military at CNA Corp., an independent research organization. “Putin has made numerous prior nuclear threats in the past, muddying his own credibility,” he added…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-annexation-moves-nuclear-threats-raise-stakes-in-ukraine-11664142541

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn warns ‘the worst is yet to come’ for investors and compares U.S. inflation to the fall of the Roman empire
    “We printed up too much money, and just thought the party would never end,” he said, adding that with the Fed switching stances and raising rates to fight inflation, he now believes “the party’s over.” The hangover from the Fed’s loose monetary policies, according to Icahn, is sky-high inflation, which rose 8.3% from a year ago in August.
    “Inflation is a terrible thing. You can’t cure it,” Icahn said, noting that rising inflation was one of the key factors that brought down the Roman Empire…
https://www.gulf-insider.com/billionaire-investor-carl-icahn-compares-u-s-inflation-to-the-fall-of-the-roman-empire/

@gurgavin: WHEN INFLATION IS ABOVE 5% IN ADVANCE ECONOMIES IT TAKE ON AVERAGE 10 YEARS TO GET IT DOWN TO 2% https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1574425677872640001

NYC’s Empty Offices Reveal a $456 Billion Problem
In the heart of midtown Manhattan lies a multibillion-dollar problem for building owners, the city, and thousands of workers. Blocks of decades-old office towers sit partially empty, in an awkward position: too outdated to attract tenants seeking the latest amenities, too new to be demolished or converted for another purpose.
    It’s a situation playing out around the globe as employers adapt to flexible work after the Covid-19 pandemic and rethink how much space they need… A study this year by professors at Columbia University and New York University estimated that lower tenant demand because of remote work may cut 28%, or $456 billion, off the value of offices across the US. About 10% of that would be in New York City alone… https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-remote-work-is-killing-manhattan-commercial-real-estate-market/

In the late ‘80s, vacant office buildings in Houston were turned into warehouses.

Biden Team Monitoring Markets Amid Volatility, White House Says – BBG 16:36 ET

@RyanDetrick: The S&P 500 is down 11.1% over the past 10 days. That is the worst 10 day return since June 2022, Feb/March 2020, August 2011, and March 2009.

Biden yesterday: “To the companies running gas stations and setting those prices at the pump: Bring down the prices you’re charging at the pump to reflect the price you pay for the product. Do it now.”

Biden on July 2, 2022: “My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product. And do it now.”

Today – Despite the ominous storm clouds and the invisible dark energy in the global financial system, the usual suspects keep playing trading patterns. This suggests that the usual suspects will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. This was one reason for the late buying on Monday.

The trends are clear. Trading rallies, even explosions, can occur at any instance. They should be exploited to liquidate down to safe levels. There is no way to know, forecast, or estimate how much downside damage will occur in various asset classes as the ‘Everything Bubble’ bursts in slow motion.

The stock and bond markets are at a point where a manic short covering rally or plunge can occur. Be careful!  USZs opened – 23/32 but are -6/32 and ESZs are +11.50 cuz the pound is +0.6% at 20:15 ET.

Expected economic data: Aug Durable Goods -0.35 m/m, ex-Trans +0.2%, Nodef ex-Air +0.2%, Shipments +0.2%; July FHFA House Price Index 0.0% m/m; July S&P CoreLogic 20-City house prices 0.2% m/m, 17.35% y/y; Sept Conference Board Consumer Confidence 104.5; Sept Fed Mfg Index -11; Aug New Home Sales 500k; Chicago Fed Pres Evans 3:30 ET & 6:15 ET, Powell at 7:30 ET on Digital Currencies, St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard 9:55 ET, Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 13:00 ET

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4034; 100-day MA: 3985; 150-day MA: 4115; 200-day MA: 4233
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,123; 100-day MA: 31,909; 150-day MA: 33,627; 200-day MA: 33,339

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4739.37 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4180.10 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3881.55 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3716.19 triggers a buy signal

GOP Sen. Josh Hawley @HawleyMO: I want to know from Merrick Garland directly why Biden’s DOJ is arresting Catholic protestors like terrorists – complete with SWAT-style tactics – while letting actual terrorist acts like fire bombings go unpunished.  https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1574464836083355668
    The corruption & abuse of law is out of control. Come January, the new Republican Congress must launch a thorough, public investigation of DOJ & the FBI – from their targeting of parents to religious protestors to political opponents. What Biden is doing is wrong. And dangerous.

Pro-Life Advocate Mark Houck Offered to Talk to FBI 3 Months Ago, It Raided His Family Anyway https://buff.ly/3DS7vDT

FBI whistleblower says SWAT teams being misused, J6 defendants’ rights trampled
Suspended agent says he and others are being listed “as Affiants on search and arrest warrant affidavits for subjects” whom they “have never investigated or even interviewed.”
    Special Agent Stephen M. Friend, who works for the FBI in Florida and serves as a SWAT team member, told the main federal whistleblower office in Washington he had an “exemplary” work record since he joined the bureau in 2014 and even won awards but was suspended in recent days after he began raising concerns about the FBI’s and DOJ’s conduct in the Jan. 6 investigation…
https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/fbi-whistleblower-says-swat-teams-being-misused-j6-defendants-rights

Democrats need to stop urging political violence
Cayler Ellingson was killed last week in North Dakota after another man, Shannon Brandt, 41, hit him with his SUV. Ellingson was 18 years old. Brandt was convinced the teenager was affiliated with a “Republican extremist group.” No evidence exists for this claim. Footage of Brandt’s bail hearing shows him seeming confused that he may suffer for his actions.
   It comes right from the top. The president of the United States, supported by a fan-girl media, spouts irresponsible rhetoric that led to Ellingson’s death… The message Biden sent to unstable people like Brandt is that it’s reasonable to get rid of those who threaten our nation…
    Over the weekend, Hillary Clinton added fuel to this fire by likening Trump supporters to Nazis…
    It’s not just Hillary and Biden, it’s other Democratic politicians too. Hawaii Sen. Mazie Hirono said fighting pro-lifers is “is literally a call to arms in our country.” Rep. Tim Ryan, running for US Senate in Ohio, said, “We have to kill and confront that [extremist] movement.” And those are just this month…
https://nypost.com/2022/09/25/democrats-dangerous-demagoguery-turns-deadly/

Happy Rosh Hashanah!

Greg Hunter

To all our Jewish friends out there: a very happy and prosperous New Year

See you on TOMORROW

HARVEY

Robert Hryniak	10:37 AM (43 minutes ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	2:32 PM (43 minutes ago)
to