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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,645.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/23/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/27/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

132 C SG AMERICAS 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 8
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 12
661 C JP MORGAN 1128 473
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
690 C ABN AMRO 61
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 19
880 H CITIGROUP 770
905 C ADM 33

TOTAL: 1,253 1,253
MONTH TO DATE: 10,758

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:

1253 NOTICES FOR 125,300 OZ //3.897 TONNES

total notices so far: 10,758 contracts for 1,075,800 oz (33.4618 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 52 NOTICES FILED FOR 260,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 6643 : for 33,215,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 0.737 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 481.194 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 579 CONTRACTS TO 131,511 AND FURTHER FORM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE FAIR LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.68 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.68) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY GAIN OF 1 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE STRONG SILVER SHORT COVERING. THE SPECS ARE FLEEING AS FAST AS THEIR LITTLE FEET WILL CARRY THEM.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 60,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//CONSIDERABLE SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: +16

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 days, total 13,335 contracts: 66.675 million oz OR 3.922 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (784 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 66.675 MILLION OZ

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 66.675 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 579 WITH OUR $0.68 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 580 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A// CONSIDERABLE NET SPEC SHORT COVERINGS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 60,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // .. WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 1 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 0.005MILLION OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL ARE BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

WE HAD 52 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 260,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

WE HAVE 4 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1747 CONTRACTS TO 467,631 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED +91 CONTRACTS.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $24.60//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD MAJOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND //CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 97,900 OZ //NEW STANDING 33.844 TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $24.6 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6123 OI CONTRACTS 19.095 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4376 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 467,631

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6123 CONTRACTS WITH 1747 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4376 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6123 CONTRACTS OR 18.762 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4376) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1747): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 6123 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTROUS QUEUE JUMP OF 97.900 oz. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

49,244 CONTRACTS OR 4,924,400 OZ OR 153.17 TONNES 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2896 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 153.17 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 153.17/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.30% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 153.17 TONNES (SLIGHTLY RISING THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 579 CONTRACT OI TO 131,527 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 580 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 550 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 580 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 579 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 580 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 1 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.005 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.68

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// FRIDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.14 PTS OR 1.20% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 78.13 PTS OR 0.44% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 722.28 PTS OR 2.66% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.79% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1609//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1609// /Oil DOWN TO 78.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.53 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1747 CONTRACTS TO 467,540 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $24.60 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (4376 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4376 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :4376 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4376 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 6123 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4376 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 1656 CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $24.60. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT (33.844),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 33.844 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $24.60) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6123 CONTRACTS // COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS TRIED TO COVER ON THEIR POSITIONS WITH SOME SUCCESS////// WE HAVE REGISTERED A STRONG GAIN OF 6032 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (33.844 TONNES)…

WE HAD +91 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6123 CONTRACTS OR 612,300 OZ OR 19.045 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 209,391/// fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday 268,240/ fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 26

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	161,430.160 oz BRINKS JPMorgan 5000 kilobars JPM
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	1253 notice(s) 125,300 OZ 3.897 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	123 contracts 12300 oz 0.3826 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	10,758 notices 1,075,800 OZ 33.4618 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

total dealer deposit 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks 675.160 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 160,755.000 oz

total: 161,430.160 oz

total in tonnes: 5.02 tonnes

Adjustments: 2

JPM/ customer to dealer: 96.453 oz

Brinks: dealer to customer; 10,655,857 0z

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an oi of 1376 contracts having GAINED 47 contracts .

We had 932 notices filed on FRIDAY so we gained a whopping 979 contracts or an additional 97900 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September. This queue jump is actually the Londoners exercising efp’s and tendering them to the banks

for the physical!

October LOST GAINED 150 contracts LOWERING TO 41,975. Oct is generally a poor active delivery month. It WILL change!! (Look for a dramatically large Oct. delivery month.)

WE HAVE 4 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE ( FRIDAY SEPT 30.2022)

November GAINED 439 contracts to stand at 439

December GAINED 596 contracts UP to 377,429

We had 1253 notice(s) filed today for 93200 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 1128 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1253 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 473 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,758) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (SEPT 1376 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1253 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,088,100 OZ OR 33.844 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of SEPT.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (10,758) x 100 oz+ (1376) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1253} x 100 oz} which equals 1,088,100 oz standing OR 33.844 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 33.844 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR A SEPT ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 2,263,478.589 oz 70.40 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 26,617,971.010 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 13,133,099.889 OZ (408.94 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,484,877.121 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,869.621. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 338.83 tonnes//rapidly declining

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 26

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	111,487.740 oz Brinks CNT Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	52 CONTRACT(S) 260,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	19 contracts (95,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	6695 contracts 33,475,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

Total deposits: nil

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 164.074 million oz/316.499million =51.80% of comex

Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks: 1,900.750 oz

ii)Out of CNT 107,587,790 oz

iii)Out of Delaware: 200.200 oz

total withdrawals: 111,487.750 oz

adjustments: 4// with 1 customer to dealer

i) out of HSBC 10,402.800 o

3 DEALER TO CUSTOMER:

i) Brinks 14,991.530 oz

ii) Loomis 5001.560 oz

iii) Out of Manfra: 34,728.150 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 43.590 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 316.610 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 71 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 36 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

48 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 12 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

60,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER LOST 36 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 420 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER LOST 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 148

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 527 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 115,937

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 52 for 260,000 oz

Comex volumes:77,547// est. volume today// good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 84,973 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6695 x 5,000 oz = 33,475,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(71) and the number of notices served upon today 52 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,695 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (71) – number of notices served upon today (52) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 33,570,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 43.590 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 33.570 MILLION OZ represents 77.01% of that category of silver.

If we add August’s final delivery (to Sept) for silver at 5.51 million oz, we have a total of 39.08 million oz delivered upon with a REGISTERED INVENTORY of 43.59 million oz or 89.65% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:50,941// est. volume today// poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 43,847contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 947.23 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 481.194 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: Biden Putting America At Risk To Prop Up His Own Image

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 04:20 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Even as the August inflation data was coming out higher than expected, President Joe Biden was bragging about his “Inflation Reduction Act.” Peter Schiff appeared on NewsMax and argued that the president is putting Americans at risk just so he can improve his image as we approach election time.

Peter pointed out that one reason energy prices have come down is because the Biden administration dumped millions of barrels of oil from the strategic reserve into the market.

That’s not going to last. And if you look below the surface, we’re seeing an acceleration in food prices, in shelter, in health care — so, everything is really going up. We just have one thing right now that’s pulled back. But of course, energy prices are still up dramatically from where they were a year ago. So, the inflation tax is falling even more heavy on middle-class Americans now than it was a few months ago.”

Peter said the “Inflation Reduction Act” is inappropriately named. It should be called “The Inflation Acceleration Act.”

That is going to have consequences next year in helping push that inflation rate even higher than the inflation from 2022.”

As far as the strategic oil reserve goes, now Biden will have to refill it at a much higher price. Peter said he doesn’t think they’ll refill it at all.

I think more likely, they’re going to deplete the reserve until it’s empty. And then what are we going to do? Then we’ll have no oil to sell. And what if we have an actual emergency, and we have shortages? We won’t have any strategic reserve to fall back on.”

Peter reminded the audience that inflation is even worse than advertised because the CPI formula is rigged.

You really have to double the CPI to get the actual increase in prices that Americans are experiencing. Take one example, which is shelter, which I think rose about 6.1%, which really was the highest, I think, since the 1980s. If you look at the real cost of housing, … medium home prices are up 30% and mortgage rates have gone from 3.1 to 6.1. So, the cost of buying a home and paying a mortgage in the last two years is up by 84%. … And of course, rents are skyrocketing too. And so, what the government claims as the increase in the cost of shelter is just a small fraction of what Americans are actually paying for shelter.”

The anchor pointed out that interest rates need to rise above the CPI in order to tame inflation. Meanwhile, we’re already technically in a recession. Peter agreed we are in a recession, as much as the Biden administration and others, including the Fed, try to deny it.

We’ve already had two quarters of falling GDP. We’re about to have a third, because I think this quarter is going to be another negative quarter. And I think the fourth quarter will also be negative.”

And Peter said the anchor was also correct in asserting rates need to go much higher to tackle inflation.

You have to have positive real interest rates so you encourage people to save, which means more capital investment and more supply. And you’ve got to discourage people from borrowing, so you have less demand. But we still have negative real interest rates.”

Even with the Fed’s 75 basis point hike at the September meeting (after this interview), real rates are still -5%.

That is fueling an inflation fire. And of course, the only way to really fight inflation would be a combination of tight money and contractionary fiscal policy. We need big spending cuts coming out of Congress. But unfortunately, they’re doing the opposite. They’re stimulating consumption with more deficit spending.”

The Chips Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and student loan forgiveness all add to demand.

“It’s acting at cross purposes.”

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: China, Turkey, India biggest importers of Swiss gold in August

The Swiss Customs Administration has released its figures for gold imports and exports for August and China has retained its position as the top importer, taking in 37.9 tonnes. This was followed by Turkey, which had only been a minor recipient for the previous few months, with 25.3 tonnes, and then India, where imports seem to be recovering again with 19.4 tonnes. If we include Turkey as being in the Middle East, this area and Asia accounted for fully 86.3% of the exported Swiss gold (see chart below).

That Chinese gold demand seems to be running strong again has been evident from our reports on withdrawal figures from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (see: China gold consumption still climbing y-o-y) and an even more recent Bloomberg report that gold benchmark prices in Shanghai have climbed to a premium of more than $43 an ounce over their London equivalent, the highest since 2019, according to data from the World Gold Council. London and Shanghai prices appear to have steadily diverged over the course of the month, with the Chinese market remaining relatively firm despite downwards pressure on international prices. Bloomberg comments that the difference shows how demand in China is outstripping supply, which has been constrained by government policy. Only accredited banks in the country are allowed to import gold, with quantities set by the Chinese central bank.

Bloomberg goes on to note that banks will likely receive new gold import quotas after the Golden Week holiday at the beginning of October, according to a person familiar with the matter. Local importers have recently been struggling to get shipments approved by Chinese lenders, sign they may have used up their existing quotas.

Largely for historic reasons, the Swiss refineries represent an excellent indicator of the direction of gold flow traffic worldwide. They process doré bullion from mines, gold scrap and larger gold bars and refine and re-refine this material mostly into the smaller bar sizes, coins, medallions and wafers most in demand on international markets. Overall an amount of gold equivalent to around half the world’s new mined gold is treated by the Swiss refineries on an annual basis. It used to be a higher percentage, but a number of gold producing and trading countries now operate their own refineries, although some of these are managed and/or operated by the Swiss as the experts in this field.

Of the Swiss gold imports in August these were dominated by gold from the USA which exported 49.5 tonnes of the 170.5 tonne total received, but most came in from other gold producing nations in the form of doré bullion from the mines. As has been the case in recent months important amounts were also received from typical gold trading sources like the UAE (8.6 tonnes) and Hong Kong (6.2 tonnes) although the volumes from these seem to be diminishing suggesting that trade is relatively strong.

Interestingly the Swiss recorded the receipt of 5.8 tonnes of Russian gold. This is believed to have come from gold which was already in London as gold coming directly from Russia would have been blocked from import into Switzerland by sanctions.

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

The following is extremely important: The premium in GOLD TRADING in Shanghai is now $43 over the price in London. This is due to gold being actually delivered upon, and supply constraints placed by government.

Eventually everything will move to Shanghai and Dubai and Moscow.

(Bloomberg)

Gold fetches huge premium in China as demand improves

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-09-23 09:15Section: Daily Dispatches

From Bloomberg News
Thursday, September 22, 2022

Gold in China is trading at a huge premium to international prices as a revival in demand outstrips the country’s imports.

Benchmark prices in Shanghai have climbed to a premium of more than $43 an ounce over their London equivalent, the highest since 2019, according to data from the World Gold Council. Unusually, the two have steadily diverged over the course of the month, with the Chinese market remaining relatively firm despite pressure on international prices.

The difference shows how demand in China is outstripping supply, which is constrained by government policy. Only accredited banks in the country are allowed to import gold, with quantities set by the People’s Bank of China.

Banks will likely receive new imports quotas after the holiday in October, according to a person familiar with the matter. Local importers have recently been struggling to get shipments approved by Chinese lenders, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign they may have used up their existing quotas.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-22/china-gold-prices-surge-to-huge-premium-as-demand-swamps-imports

END

With Wall Street Silver, GATA’s Steer discusses frantic moves in monetary metals

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-09-23 11:38Section: Daily Dispatches

11:33a ET Friday, September 23, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

GATA board member Ed Steer, editor of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest, was interviewed this week by Wall Street Silver, discussing the frantic movements on the monetary metals exchanges and the switch of commercial traders from short to long positions.

The interview is 19 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Central banks are buying gold and increasing their reserves. They refuse to sell their gold produced. Ghana bought 3.8 tonnes of gold at year end

(Ghana News Agency/GATA)

Ghana’s central bank to buy another 125,000 oz. of domestic gold by year-end

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-09-25 11:00Section: Daily Dispatches

From the Ghana News Agency
via PeaceFM, Accra
Saturday, September 24, 2022

Gold-producing member companies of the Ghana Chamber of Mines will, by December 2022, sell about 125,000 ounces of gold to the Bank of Ghana under the central bank’s Domestic Gold Purchase Programme.

The decision followed a meeting between Vice President Alhaji Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, some other members of the Economic Management Team, the Bank of Ghana, the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, Minerals Commission, the government’s Precious Minerals Marketing Co., as well as the leadership of the chamber to consider the implementation of the central bank’s gold purchase programme in the light of the country’s economic challenges.

Ahead of that meeting, Newmont Ghana had already sold 3,500 ounces of gold to the Bank of Ghana as part of the programme.

Vice President Dr. Bawumia said after the meeting, “It was agreed that to help shore up the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Ghana. Starting September 1, the Bank of Ghana will purchase a portion of the output of the gold mining companies on a continuous basis at world market prices, but payment will be made in Ghana cedis.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.peacefmonline.com/pages/local/news/202209/474762.php

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1658

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1609

SHANGHAI CLOSED: DOWN 37.14 PTS OR 1.20%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 722.28 PTS OR .226%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 722.28 [PTS OR 2.66%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 113.49/Euro FALLS TO 0.96449

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.242/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 144.22/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.109%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.501%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.28%…** DANGEROUS

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.68//

3j Gold at $1641.45 silver at: 18.73 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 4/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 57.88//

3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 144.22DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9901– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9554well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.789 UP 9 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.668 UP 6 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,45…GETTTING DANGEROUS

Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

“Global Gloom”: World Markets Plunge To Start The Week As Global Currency Crash Hits Max Pain And Beyond

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 08:08 AM

The rout which hammered stocks on Friday, nearly pushing them to close at a new 2022 low, resumed overnight when the global FX crisis returned with a bang, and a flash crash in the British pound which as noted late last night, plummeted 500pips in thin trading, to fresh record lows following Friday’s shocking mini-budget announcement which confirmed the UK has no idea what it is doing and will cut rates and issue more debt just as the BOE is desperately trying to tighten financial conditions.

The plunge in cable was however just one symptom of a bigger malaise, namely the relentless surge in the dollar which overnight hit fresh record highs as the BBDXY rose as high as 1,355 before briefly fading the surge…

… as every dollar-denominated debt issuer in the world is suffering crippling pain and begging Powell to do something to ease the unprecedented shock of the strongest dollar in history just as the world slumps into a global depression.

Alas, so far there is nothing but silence from the Fed – which will likely have to make some announcement on central bank currency swaps at some point before the open today to avoid an even more epic FX rout – and as traders await something to break big time across global markets…

… this morning futures have tumbled another 0.7%, as eminis drop to 3,683 while Nasdaq futures are down 0.8% to 11,290 on fears that Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat persistently elevated inflation will crush the economy into a full-blown recession, or depression, and the VIX soared above 32.

It wasn’t just FX and stocks crashing: British bonds also cratered as yields surged to the highest in more than a decade, sparking talk of emergency action by the Bank of England. For one example of the total chaos look no further than 5Y UK Gilts which have exploded 51bps higher and last traded around 4.58% as the market now prices in

Similar implosions were observed in US TSYs, where the 10Y traded just shy of Friday’s mini blowout, and was last seen at 3.7828% as bond traders are hit by VaR shocks at the same time in every possible market.

Turning back to stocks, the rout wasn’t isolated to just one market and an index of global stocks traded to the lowest since 2020. European equities extended declines after sliding into a bear market on Friday, with mining and energy stocks underperforming as metals and oil fell.

“We’re in a period of global gloom, with pessimism blanketing different countries for different reasons,” said Ed Yardeni, president of his eponymous research firm, who warned of growing storm clouds for the US economy. “The latest data jibe with our growth recession scenario, but the risks of a full-blown recession are obviously increasing,” he wrote in a note Monday.

In premarket trading, major US tech and internet stocks including Apple, Amazon and Microsoft tumbled. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Farfetch (FTCH US) shares fall as much as 4.43% in US premarket trading, after Citi begins coverage of the luxury online retailer with a sell rating, with broker flagging “weak” underlying profitability.
Shares of US-listed Macau casinos jump in premarket trading, after Macau government said tour groups from mainland China could resume as early as November. Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) jumps 5.4%; Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) +6.9%, Melco (MLCO US) +9.6% and MGM resorts (MGM US) +1.6%
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks edged higher in premarket trading on Monday as Bitcoin rose above $19,000.
Marathon Digital (MARA US) +1.9%, Coinbase (COIN US) +0.4%
Keep an eye on Diana Shipping (DSX US) and Safe Bulkers (SB US) as Jefferies downgraded them to hold from buy and lowered dry bulk estimates to reflect the decline in dry bulk charter rates.

European shares extended their fall to Dec. 2020 lows; sliding 1% and extending losses as investors priced a major economic shock and recession. The Stoxx 600 Index was down 1% by 10:50am in London, touching its lowest since December 2020, with real estate and banks among the worst performing sectors, while technology shares outperformed. Italy’s FTSE MIB bucked broader European declines to trade little changed, after Giorgia Meloni won a clear majority in Sunday’s election, in line with expectations.

Banks and real estate stocks were the worst-performing sectors in Europe on Monday, with declines led by UK stocks as the pound and UK bonds slump. The Stoxx 600 Banks Index and the Stoxx 600 Real Estate are both down at least 2.5% while the benchmark gauge is 1.1% lower. The bank index decline is led by UK names including Virgin Money (-10%), Lloyds (-4.6%) and NatWest (-4.5%). Virgin Money was today resumed with a hold rating at Berenberg; broker said that the lender is expected to see revenue declines and a sector- lagging return on tangible equity which will affect ability to re-rate. Among real estate stocks, the UK’s Safestore Holdings (-4.2%), Assura (-3.9%) and Derwent London (-3.8%) are among the worst performers; non-index member housebuilders, including Persimmon, Bellway and Taylor Wimpey, are also plunging as the pound’s slump prompts talk of emergency action by the Bank of England. Here are the most notable movers today:

The Stoxx 600 Tech Index rises as much as 2.4%, set for its biggest one-day outperformance against the broader Stoxx 600 since early-August, with semiconductor stocks leading gains. Among chip stocks, ASML rose as much as +3.7% after Santander upgraded the stock to neutral from underperform
Italy’s FTSE MIB index gains, bucking weaker markets in Europe, after Giorgia Meloni won a clear majority in Sunday’s election. While the outcome was in line with expectations, the fact that the coalition didn’t obtain a super majority needed to change the constitution reassures investors. Telecom Italia rose as much +7.4%, FinecoBank +5.1%, Moncler +4.4%
Unilever shares rise as much as 3.7% after it announced that CEO Alan Jope will retire from the company at the end of 2023, in a move that Jefferies analyst Martin Deboo (buy) sees as a positive development.
RPS Group shares rise as much as 13% after Tetra Tech’s agreed deal to buy the company at 222p/share in cash, representing a 7.8% premium to an offer WSP made in August. Liberum does not rule out a counterbid.
Belimo shares rise as much as 8.5% since the market isn’t fully pricing in its growth outlook, Berenberg says in a note, moving to buy and establishing a Street-high CHF440 target. The stock gains as much as 8.1%, the most since March 2021.
Zalando shares rise as much as 4.8% after Citi analyst says they like the long-term investment story, short-term earnings risks are still high.
UK Domestics: the most remarkable reaction to Friday’s not-so-mini budget, however, might be in lenders’ shares. The decline in banking stocks reflects investors’ pessimistic view on Britain’s economy. HSBC fell as much as 2.9%; Lloyds -4.3%, NatWest -4.7% and Barclays -3.0%.
Virgin Money UK shares drop as much as 10% after Berenberg resumed a hold rating in note, stating that in many ways the UK small banks are “more different than they are alike.”
Utilities are the day’s worst-performing European sector. Citi analyst Piotr Dzieciolowski says the EU’s funding for its policy response has so far been insufficient and also expects uncertainty to persist for UK names. United Utilities fell as much as -3.4%, Drax -3.8%

Geopolitical risks from the war in Ukraine to escalating tensions over Taiwan and unrest in Iran also weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, the OECD cut almost all growth forecasts for the Group of 20 next year while anticipating further interest-rate hikes, and a gauge of German business confidence deteriorated.

Earlier in the session, a rout in Asian stocks extended into Monday as rising concerns about a global recession and weak demand hit the region’s exporters and materials producers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 2.3% to the lowest since April 2020, dragged lower by TSMC, BHP and Toyota Motor. All but one sector traded lower with materials leading the slump. South Korean stocks fell the most in the region, with the benchmark tumbling 3% to more than a two-year low. The Korean market’s heavy tech exposure has proven costly amid rising rates and a stronger dollar, with fears that a looming recession may wreak havoc on global demand. Gauges in Hong Kong and China reversed earlier gains as the region’s selloff intensified. Korea Assets Are Asia’s Biggest Losers on Global Recession Angst “Investor sentiment is again at the stage of extreme fear,” said Lee Kyoung-Min, an analyst at Daishin Investment. “It is becoming solid and clear that Kospi and other global stock markets are on a mid-to-long term downward trend.”

Asian stock benchmarks are being buffeted by global headwinds as well as risks of their own. The Federal Reserve’s relentless rate hike campaign is pushing Asian currencies lower and raising the risk of capital outflows, while China’s adherence to Covid Zero is hurting growth in the region’s economic giant. If Monday’s losses are extended through the week, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index will see its longest run of declines since 2015. Japan stocks declined more than 2% as the nation resumed trading after a holiday on Friday. The Philippine stock market was closed Monday as Super Typhoon Noru barreled into the main Luzon island. Among the key issues investors are watching this week are speeches by central bank officials in US and Europe, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

Japanese equities tumbled as the market reopened following a three-day weekend, tracking US peers lower after the Fed’s hawkish comments last week deepened fears of a global downturn. The Topix fell 2.7% to close at 1,864.28, while the Nikkei declined 2.7% to 26,431.55. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix decline, decreasing 3.2% after its monthly production update lagged expectations. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 145 rose and 1,985 fell, while 39 were unchanged. “There is a possibility that inflation will not subside and interest rates will rise further, which the markets will not like,” said Shoji Hirakawa, a chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.6% to close at 6,469.40, as energy and mining shares plummeted. An energy gauge including oil and coal linked securities declined by the most since March 2020. The New Zealand market was closed for a holiday

In India, key stocks gauges plunged to their lowest closing levels in almost two months as the global equity rout continues. The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 1.6% to 57,145.22 in Mumbai to its lowest since July 28. The NSE Nifty 50 Index fell 1.8%, its biggest single-day plunge since Sept. 16. Both the indexes, down in four of the past five weeks, have lost almost 6% since this month’s peak. Volatility in domestic equities is likely to remain elevated this week, pending monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. Of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 24 fell and 6 advanced. All but one of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by utilities and power companies. The Indian rupee weakened to a new record against the dollar amid surging US Treasury yields. The Reserve Bank of India’s rate-setting panel will announce monetary policy later this week.

As noted above, while stocks are ugly, rates are a horrorshow as Treasuries extended their worst bond slide in decades as a dollar gauge rose to yet another record. Treasuries extended losses in a bear flattening move with yields cheaper by up to 10bp across the belly of the curve. US 10-year yields around 3.78%, cheaper by 6bp on the day with 5s30s spread flatter by 5bp, dropping as low as -45.4bp in European session; UK yields cheaper by 60bp to 25bp from front- end out to long-end of the curve. The Move comes as market participants brace for accelerated policy tightening from global central banks and headlines such as this:

*TRADERS PRICE IN UP TO 200BPS OF BOE RATE HIKES BY NOVEMBER

Yields on 2-year gilts are 60bp cheaper heading into early US session, while the pound recovers slightly after reaching a fresh all-time low. US session focus on 2-year auction, while a barrage of Fed speakers are expected for the week. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund widening 7bps to 238bps.

FX, of course, is a disaster, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising a fifth consecutive day as the greenback advanced versus most of its Group-of-10 peers.

The pound plunged almost 5% to $1.0350 in Asian trading, the lowest recorded in Bloomberg data going back to 1971, while gilts crashed after the UK government vowed to press ahead with more tax cuts, stoking fears that new fiscal policies will send inflation and debt soaring, triggering emergency rate hikes. The options market signals no respite even as the pound rebounded from a record low hit during the Asia session. The yield on two- year bonds surged more than 55 basis points to 4.51%, while the 10-year yield rose 37 basis points to 4.19%. Money markets price in more than 150 basis points of rate increases by the BoE’s next policy meeting in November
The euro steadied after earlier dropping to $0.9554; European bond yields rose; Italian bonds underperformed German peers. Giorgia Meloni won a clear majority in Sunday’s Italian election, setting herself up to become the country’s first female prime minister at the head of the most right-wing government since World War II. Germany’s IFO business expectations slid to 75.2 in September from 80.3 in August. That’s the lowest since April 2020. Analysts had predicted a drop to 79. An index of current conditions also fell.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars pared some losses after earlier touching fresh 2-year lows. Aussie bond yields rose by up to 13bps, led by the front end
The yen weakened amid a broadly stronger dollar. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the government’s intervention in the foreign exchange market last week was appropriate given the recent volatility in the yen

The currency’s rally is “untenable” for risk assets, according to a note by Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson, while Sian Fenner, senior Asia economist for Oxford Economics, said that “It’s a king US dollar…“It’s adding to inflationary pressures and more central banks raising rates more than we have historically seen.”

In commodities, WTI slides almost 1% to trade near $78/bbl. Spot gold mostly unchanged near $1,643/oz. Bitcoin climbs above $19,000.

Trading this week will be punctuated by a number of economic reports including US initial jobless claims and gross-domestic-product data, along with PMI figures from China. Choppiness in price moves is likely with a steady stream of Federal Reserve officials speaking through the week.

Looking at today’s calendar, we get the September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index, and the August Chicago Fed national activity index. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bostic, Collins, Logan and Mester; ECB’s Lagarde also speaks as does Nagel, Guindos, Centeno and Panetta speak, BoE’s Tenreyro speaks.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,706.25
MXAP down 2.0% to 142.24
MXAPJ down 1.4% to 463.08
Nikkei down 2.7% to 26,431.55
Topix down 2.7% to 1,864.28
Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 17,855.14
Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 3,051.23
Sensex down 1.2% to 57,378.30
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 6,469.41
Kospi down 3.0% to 2,220.94
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 389.70
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.08%
Euro little changed at $0.9683
Brent Futures down 0.7% to $85.59/bbl
Brent Futures down 0.7% to $85.59/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,645.98
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 113.22

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng must do more to reassure the markets about his plans for the economy after a selloff sent the pound crashing to an all-time low against the dollar, said Gerard Lyons, an external adviser to Prime Minister Liz Truss
The UK’s foreign currency holdings are a fraction of the huge stockpiles built up by some of its peers, making unilateral intervention in the market to prop up the plunging pound a tall order for UK policymakers. The UK had $108 billion in foreign currency reserves at the end of August, according to data from the IMF
Hedge funds ramped up bullish bets on the pound just days before the UK government’s unexpectedly large tax cuts sent the currency tumbling
The ECB’s newest policy maker, Boris Vujcic, says “it’s clear that this is the right way to go,” backing this month’s 75-basis point interest-rate hike
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the biggest problem facing the continent’s economy is record inflation, which is becoming more broad-based, threatening investment and consumer spending
ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras says the central bank must maintain the main principles of gradualism and flexibility, since the problem it faces is different from the one that the US Fed faces
China made it more expensive to bet against the yuan in the derivatives market, ramping up support for the currency as it slides toward the weakest level since the 2008 financial crisis

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly negative in a resumption of last week’s global stock rout amid the continued surge in the dollar and higher yields, while there was also FX volatility which saw a flash crash in GBP/USD to a record low. ASX 200 was dragged lower amid losses in the commodity-related sectors and with sentiment dampened by the collapse of potential M&A deals involving Ramsay Health-KKR and Link Administration-Dye & Durham. Nikkei 225 underperformed with Mazda Motors among the worst hit as it considers exiting Russian operations. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retraced most of their initial losses with Hong Kong underpinned following the scrapping of hotel quarantine policy and with casinos boosted as Macau is to resume tour groups from China, while the property industry benefits after China Construction Bank formed a CNY 30bln housing rental fund and some Twitter sources also circulated that some China state banks were reportedly ordered to buy stocks to contain selling.

Top Asian News

PBoC injected CNY 42bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and CNY 93bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a net CNY 133bln injection.
There were rumours circulating on social media of a coup against Chinese President Xi, although experts and journalists in Beijing dismissed the rumours and said there was no evidence to support them, according to The Print.
Philippines Stock Exchange announced a trading suspension for Monday amid a typhoon in the capital, according to Reuters.

European bourses are softer after a mixed cash open and despite a brief foray higher, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, as sentiment remains subdued amid recession/inflation concerns. The breakdown features modest outperformance in the FTSE MIB as Italian election results are in-line with expectations. Stateside, futures are lower across the board in-fitting with peers going into a week of Fed speak and inflation data.

Top European News

UK PM Truss said she is determined to make the special relationship with the US even more special and said she agreed with US President Biden that it is vital to protect the Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement, while she wants to find a way forward with a negotiated solution with the EU, according to Reuters and a CNN interview.
UK PM Truss is to review visa schemes in an attempt to ease UK labour shortages, according to FT.
UK Chancellor Kwarteng hinted that more tax cuts are on the way and claimed his tax cuts “favour people right across the income scale” amid accusations they mainly help the rich, according to Evening Standard.
UK Chancellor Kwarteng said he is focused on growing the economy and the longer term when asked about the market reaction to his statement on Friday. Kwarteng added that he shares ideas with BoE Governor Bailey but added that Bailey is completely independent and Kwarteng is confident the BoE is dealing with inflation, according to Reuters.
UK opposition Labour Party leader Starmer said they would reintroduce the top rate of income tax at 45% which the government announced to scrap last week, while he added that they will support the government plan to lower the basic rate of income tax to 19%, according to Reuters.
Italy’s right-wing bloc is seen winning the national election with 43.3% and centre-left bloc is seen winning 25.4%, according to the first projection by LA7 TV based on the actual vote count.. Click here for newsquawk snap analysis.
Italy’s Meloni said Italians gave clear backing to a centre-right government led by the Brothers of Italy and said the situation is difficult and needs contribution from everyone. It was separately reported that Italy’s Democratic Party conceded in the election and said it will be the main opposition force, while Italy’s Meloni claimed leadership of the next Italian government, according to Reuters and AFP.

DXY climbed to a fresh YTD high of 114.58 before paring modestly, but remaining firmer, as GBP in particular lifts off worst levels.
Cable succumbed to a flash crash overnight, with GBP/USD hitting an all-time-low around 1.0350 as participants confidence in the economy slips.
EUR suffers amid the mentioned USD move but derives relative benefit from GBP, while ECB speakers thus far have added little.
Antipodeans and CAD weighed on by broader risk and commodity pressure.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said the government and BoJ share views on concerns about a weak JPY, while he added that FX intervention had a certain effect and there is no change to the stance that they will respond to market moves as needed, according to Reuters.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0298 vs exp. 7.0019 (prev. 6.9920)
PBoC imposed a 20% risk reserve requirement for FX forward sales from September 28th to rein in yuan weakness.

Fixed Income

Gilts have retained some composure after slumping over 200ticks at the commencement of trade and have settled around halfway between intraday extremes.
EGBs downbeat in sympathy while BTPs marginally lag core-EGB peers as Italian as-expected election results are digested with BTP-Bund only modestly wider as such.
Stateside, USTs are pressured in-fitting with peers and also conscious of the week’s supply docket getting underway via a 43bln 2yr.

Central Banks

Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) said inflation is too high and that they need to do all they can to bring it down and said demand is beginning to shrink which will ultimately pay dividends in inflation levels. Bostic also stated that there are scenarios where they can avoid deep pain but there will likely be some job losses, according to Reuters.
BoJ’s Kuroda says the BoJ will maintain accommodative monetary conditions to support companies, hopes to support a positive economic cycle, long-term inflation expectations have begun to heighten, via Reuters. Intervention from the MoF is an “appropriate” move, does not think gov’t intervention and BoJ policy are contradictory. Amamiya says the domestic economy is picking up, must carefully watch how FX moves affect the economy and prices.
BoJ Governor Kuroda says when he stated that BoJ forward guidance will not change for 2-3yrs, did not refer to guidance on keeping short and long-term rates at present of lower levels via Reuters.
ECB’s de Guindos says Q3 and Q4 point towards growth rates being close to zero within the EZ, the scenario is market by high uncertainty, lower growth and higher inflation.
ECB’s Panetta says ECB is assessing the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) and “the extent to which it could improve our services.”.
Capital Economics calls for the BoE to “get on the front foot with a big rate hike”. Allianz’s El-Erian says, on GBP, the fall is about extra tax cuts and Chancellor Kwarteng could recalibrate this. Alternative, would be for the BoE to hike at an emergency meeting. Adding, he would hike by 100bp.
BoE publishes key elements of the 2022 annual cyclical scenario stress test; includes a scenario where the Bank Rate is assumed to rise rapidly to a peak of 6% in early 2023 before gradually reduced to sub-3.5%.

Commodities

WTI and Brent November futures remain subdued in early European trade following last week’s recession-induced losses.
Spot gold trades in tandem with the Buck and sees resistance at around USD 1,650/oz after falling to USD 1,627/oz as a casualty of the Sterling flash crash overnight.
LME metals are softer across the board with 3M copper futures having a hard time reclaiming USD +7,500/t status with upside capped by the Buck.
Iraq began trial operations at the Karabala oil refinery which has a production capacity of 140k bpd, according to a statement from the Oil Ministry.
German Chancellor Scholz signed a strategic agreement with UAE’s President on accelerating energy security and industrial growth, while UAE’s ADNOC signed an agreement with Germany’s RWE which includes ADNOC exporting its first LNG cargo to RWE and will conduct trial shipments of low-carbon ammonia to Germany. Furthermore, Chancellor Scholz said while visiting Doha that he talked with the Emir about LNG deliveries and that they want to achieve further progress, according to Reuters.
Germany is preparing a national electricity price cap to be implemented this fall in the scenario the EU falls to agree on a similar move for the entirety of the bloc, via WSJ citing officials.
Vitol’s CEO said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference that Russian gas supply cuts put enormous strain on supply-demand in Europe and that high gas prices are to impact 60%-80% of demand, while Ecopetrol’s CEO said they are increasing crude exports to Europe this year to replace Russian supplies and are drilling 600 oil wells this year.
Anglo American (AAL LN) tightens copper production guidance for Chile to 560k-580k tonnes of copper (prev. 560k-600k tonnes) due to lower throughput at Los Bronces caused by a combination of water restrictions and a change in ore characteristics, via Reuters.

US Event Calendar

08:30: Aug. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.23, prior 0.27
10:30: Sept. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -10.0, prior -12.9

Central Banks

10:00: Boston Fed’s Susan Collins Speaks to Boston Chamber of…
12:00: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Income Inequality
12:30: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Banking Conference
16:00: Fed’s Mester Discusses Economic Outlook

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I wonder whether any research report has ever been written whilst watching synchronised swimming? Well if not, then you’re reading the first ever as I’m getting a head start on the early morning news by starting this on Sunday evening watching my daughter Maisie do her second session after getting into the local club. Watching this sport is going to take some getting used to after years of watching football, cricket, golf, F1, athletics, rugby… actually…. virtually every sport bar synchronised swimming.

I think everyone felt they were swimming in a tsunami of newsflow last week after one of the most incredible macro weeks in recent memory in terms of breadth of events. Yes there have been more extreme weeks in crises but last week had a bit more variety and was outside of a crisis period. If over 500bps of global rate hikes wasn’t enough, you also had 2yr US yields moving higher for the 12th successive day on Friday (the longest steak since data begins in 1976), the BoJ intervening in FX markets for the first time since 1998, and what can only be termed as one of the darker days for sterling assets on record on Friday after a mammoth tax giveaway in what was a mini-budget in name and not by nature.

Henry and I put a note out on Friday night (link here) showing that it was the third worst day for Sterling (-3.57%) since Black Wednesday in 1992, with the worst two since being the day after the Brexit vote (-8.1%) and after the initial covid shock in 2020 (-3.71%) when there was a global flight to dollars. We also show a graph of daily Sterling moves back to 1862 and on that it was the 41st worst day in history spanning 47,000 trading days. Obviously in the long era of fixed FX rates there were the occasional big devaluations which were much bigger than Friday. This morning is Asia it fell around -4.5% at one point (1.0392) which was a record low against the Dollar. It’s around -2.78% as I type. This follows a weekend interview where Chancellor Kwarteng suggested that more tax cuts were to come so that certainly was a red rag to markets. Will we hear from the upper echelons of the BoE today? Watch out for any comments, especially at the market open. DB’s George Saravelos suggested on Friday that the Bank of England need to do an inter meeting hike to restore policy credibility.

There’s also a graph in our note mentioned above showing that Friday was the worst day for 5yr gilts (+50.3bps) since a +200bps hike in 1985 when sterling was also slumping. So maybe omens here.

I suppose the only slight mystery is the timing of the sell-off as the mini-budget in magnitude was broadly in-line with the recent elevated fiscal expectations that had been building. However perhaps it was the unabashed revival of trickle-down economics that had markets a little aghast. It goes against the current economic orthodoxy and the overall zeitgeist of our immediate times. As such there is likely to be concerns of a credibility issue.

We are publishing our long-term study today with the title “How we got here, and where we’re going?”. In it we try to put the current macro woes into historical context in an attempt to work out where we’re going. There are quite a few people who have proof-read it on my team and they were all thoroughly depressed at the end. I didn’t feel that way writing it but maybe it’s a case of starting point perceptions. Anyway, look out for it around the European lunchtime.

Overnight in Italy, the right-wing alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party was on course to become the nation’s first woman prime minister after exit polls gave it a clear majority. With the full results due later today, she is predicted to win up to 26% of the vote ahead of her closest rival Enrico Letta from the centre left. The right wing alliance is slated to be on course for around 43% of the vote, enough for a majority if correct. As I type, the euro is extending its losses against the dollar for the fifth day, its longest streak since April 28, falling as much as -0.5% to 0.9638, albeit being overshadowed by Sterling.

For this week we have an array of consumer-driven economic data in the US and some important European inflation prints. We will also get a number of consumer sentiment indicators across the key economies and PMIs from Asia. Away from the data, there are more than 30 central banker appearances across the Fed and the ECB to keep markets busy. Tomorrow also sees referendums in the Russia-annexed Ukrainian territories as the conflict goes into its eight month.

Going through the data in more details now. Starting with the US, the PCE and personal income and spending data will be front and centre for markets next week as they gauge the extent of inflationary pressures and the strength of the consumer. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, due Friday, will be watched for signs of price pressures we saw in last week’s CPI report. Our US economists expect core PCE to edge higher by +0.5% MoM (vs +0.1% in July) which won’t allow the Fed to take the foot off the tightening pedal. For the other two data points, our team forecasts a +0.1% MoM increase for both income and consumption. Final US Q2 GDP will also be released on Thursday and although DB expect no change to the -0.6% second reading, watch out for the annual benchmark revisions back to Q1 2017. History could be re-written that could have some implications for how we all think about the economy. In other US data, we will also get the consumer confidence index on Tuesday, along with durable goods orders, and inventories data on Wednesday, with the Chicago PMI on Friday.

Over in Europe, all eyes will be on September’s inflation data, including the Euro Area flash CPI release on Friday. Our economists are expecting the measure to hit a record +9.5%, up from the previous record of +9.1% in August. Other data in the region will include consumer and economic sentiment from Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone throughout the week. Meanwhile, EU energy ministers will meet again on Friday regarding the emergency intervention amid elevated energy prices.

Finally, next week’s earnings line up will feature a number of retail bellwethers on Thursday. Among them will be Nike, H&M and Next. Micron will report that day as well. See our usual day by day guide to the week at the end which contains many of the key Fed and ECB speakers including Powell and Lagarde.

Stock markets across Asia are mostly lower this morning. The Kospi (-2.40%), Nikkei (-2.30%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.40%) are leading the declines. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+0.11%) is swinging between gains and losses after rising by +2.45% initially with Chinese shares mixed as the Shanghai Composite (-0.10%) is trading lower while the CSI (+0.46%) is up as we go to press. Stock futures in DMs are pointing to further losses with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.49%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.46%) and DAX (-0.33%) all moving lower.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s manufacturing sector continued to expand albeit at a slower pace as the latest au Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI slipped to a 20-month low of 51.0 in September from 51.5 in August, pulled lower by high energy and raw material prices that was exacerbated by a weak yen. At the same time, the au Jibun Bank services PMI returned to expansion, recording a level of 51.9 in September from August’s 49.5 final reading.

Moving on to China, in order to stabilise expectations in the FX market, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) today raised the risk reserve requirement on foreign exchange forward sales to 20% from 0% beginning September 28 as the yuan faces increasing depreciation pressure, in line with most major currencies amid broad dollar strength.

Looking back now on a week that will not be forgotten anytime soon. While there were historic central bank hikes all week, the biggest news came from the fiscal authorities, following the UK’s budget Friday, which had the largest tax cut package since the 1970s.

Gilt yields had their largest one-day increase in decades with 2yrs +44.7bps, 5yrs +50.3bps, and 10yrs +33.3bps. As we mentioned at the top, 5yrs yields saw their largest move since 1985 after a +200bps hike aimed at helping a plunging currency. The pound fell -3.57% against the US dollar to within a percentage point of the weakest in the post-Bretton Woods 51yr free float era.

It was already a busy macro week before the blockbuster budget, where we got more than 500bps of global central bank hikes and a currency intervention from Japan. In terms of the biggest players, the Fed delivered its third consecutive 75bp hike while the BoE delivered its second 50bp hike in a row, with both banks guiding toward yet more tightening, while the BoJ remained the outlier by keeping its accommodative policy in place, which isn’t going to help the yen turnaround even with intervention.

When all was said and done, sovereign bonds and equities sold off in size, while yield curves flattened. 2yr Treasuries (+33.4bps, +7.9bps Friday), 2yr Bunds (+38.5bps, +7.2bps Friday), 2yr Gilts (+82.1bps, +44.7bps Friday) reached their highest levels since 2007, 2008, and 2008, respectively, as markets priced in more tightening to overcome inflationary pressures (and in the case of the UK, fiscal expansion). 10yr Treasuries (+23.5bps, -2.9bps Friday) ended the week a touch lower on the day but hit their highest levels since 2011 during the week, while 10yr Bunds (+26.8bps, +5.9bps Friday), and 10yr Gilts (+69.1bps, +33.3bps Friday) hit their highest levels since 2013 and 2011, respectively.

The mixture unsurprisingly proved unpalatable to risk assets, driving the STOXX 600 and S&P 500 back to their lows for the year. The STOXX 600 retreated -4.37% on the week and -2.34% on Friday, the worst weekly and daily return since mid-June. The S&P 500 fell -4.65% (-1.75% Friday), returning to bear market territory. The FTSE managed to stay above its YTD lows, but still fell -3.01% on the week, its worst weekly return since mid-June as well, and retreated -1.97% on Friday, the worst daily return since early July.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Recession/inflation concerns remain in focus with numerous Central Bank speakers due – Newsquawk US Market Open

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 06:39 AM

European bourses are softer after a mixed cash open and despite a brief foray higher, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, as sentiment remains subdued amid recession/inflation concerns.
Stateside, futures are lower across the board in-fitting with peers going into a week of Fed speak and inflation data.
DXY climbed to a fresh YTD high of 114.58 before paring modestly, but remaining firmer, as GBP in particular lifts off worst levels.
Cable succumbed to a flash crash overnight, with GBP/USD hitting an all-time-low around 1.0350; FX peers hit by broader USD strength
Gilts have retained some composure after slumping over 200ticks at the commencement of trade; EGBs/USTs downbeat in sympathy
WTI and Brent November futures remain subdued in early European trade following last week’s recession-induced losses.
Looking ahead, highlights include Speeches from Fed’s Collins, Bostic & Mester, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Tenreyro, BoJ’s Kuroda & Amamiya, Supply from the US.

As of 11:05BST/06:05ET

View the full premarket movers and news report.

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LOOKING AHEAD

Speeches from Fed’s Collins, Bostic & Mester, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Tenreyro, BoJ’s Kuroda & Amamiya, Supply from the US.

CENTRAL BANKS

Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) said inflation is too high and that they need to do all they can to bring it down and said demand is beginning to shrink which will ultimately pay dividends in inflation levels. Bostic also stated that there are scenarios where they can avoid deep pain but there will likely be some job losses, according to Reuters.
BoJ’s Kuroda says the BoJ will maintain accommodative monetary conditions to support companies, hopes to support a positive economic cycle, long-term inflation expectations have begun to heighten, via Reuters. Intervention from the MoF is an “appropriate” move, does not think gov’t intervention and BoJ policy are contradictory. Amamiya says the domestic economy is picking up, must carefully watch how FX moves affect the economy and prices.
BoJ Governor Kuroda says when he stated that BoJ forward guidance will not change for 2-3yrs, did not refer to guidance on keeping short and long-term rates at present of lower levels via Reuters.
ECB’s de Guindos says Q3 and Q4 point towards growth rates being close to zero within the EZ, the scenario is market by high uncertainty, lower growth and higher inflation.
ECB’s Panetta says ECB is assessing the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) and “the extent to which it could improve our services.”.
Capital Economics calls for the BoE to “get on the front foot with a big rate hike”. Allianz’s El-Erian says, on GBP, the fall is about extra tax cuts and Chancellor Kwarteng could recalibrate this. Alternative, would be for the BoE to hike at an emergency meeting. Adding, he would hike by 100bp.
BoE publishes key elements of the 2022 annual cyclical scenario stress test; includes a scenario where the Bank Rate is assumed to rise rapidly to a peak of 6% in early 2023 before gradually reduced to sub-3.5%.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Russian President Putin, in a meeting with Turkish President Erdogan, admitted the possibility of Russia returning to negotiations with Ukraine, via Tass citing Turkish Foreign Ministry.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said fierce battles are taking place along the frontline but there are positive results in some places, according to Reuters.
Russian Defence Ministry said Ukraine continued to attack the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and tried to attack the area using 8 kamikaze drones which were all shot down by Russian forces, according to RIA.
Russia’s Duma may consider draft bills to include Russian-controlled parts of four Ukrainian regions into Russian territory on Thursday, according to TASS. It was separately reported that Russian President Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly could take place on Friday to formally announce the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories.
Russian men of mobilisation age will reportedly be restricted from leaving the country following the end of the referendums in occupied territories in Ukraine and martial law could also be possible at a later date, according to Meduza.
US National Security Adviser Sullivan said the US would respond decisively to any Russian use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and warned Moscow of the “catastrophic consequences” it would face, according to Reuters.
Western capitals are reportedly making contingency plans should Russian President Putin take steps towards acting on his nuclear threats and private warnings have been sent to the Kremlin about potential consequences, according to western officials cited by FT.
UK PM Truss said Russian President Putin has mobilised more troops because he isn’t winning in Ukraine, while she added that they should not be listening to Russian President Putin’s sabre-rattling and it is important they remain resolute on Ukraine, according to Reuters.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China supports all efforts conducive to the peaceful resolution of the Ukraine war and said the pressing priority is to facilitate talks for peace, while he added the fundamental solution is to address legitimate security concerns of all parties, according to Reuters.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they will ban exports of chemical weapon-related goods to Russia as an additional sanction on Moscow’s action in Ukraine, according to Reuters.

CHINA-TAIWAN

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told US Secretary of State Blinken that Taiwan is an internal matter and the US has no right in any way to resolve it, while he added that the more rampant Taiwanese independence activities are, the less likely there will be a peaceful settlement. Wang also told Blinken that the US is attempting to undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Furthermore, Wang said the US is sending wrong and dangerous signals on Taiwan, while he told the UN that they must combat Taiwan independence separatist activities with the firmest resolve and take forceful steps against external interference, according to Reuters.
UK PM Truss said she was clear with US President Biden that they will work to reduce strategic dependency on China and will work with allies to make sure Taiwan can defend itself, according to Reuters.
US and the Philippines are increasing their military cooperation including doubling the number of troops involved in joint exercises next year amid the China threat regarding Taiwan, according to FT.

OTHER

North Korea fired a suspected ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan on Sunday which is just days before US military drills and a visit by US Vice President Harris to the region, according to Daily Mail.
Iranian President Raisi said protestors should be confronted decisively, according to state media. It was also reported that Iran’s Foreign Minister said a peaceful protest is the right of every nation but added that US support for rioters is in conflict with Washington’s message to Iran regarding the need for a nuclear deal and establishing stability in the region, according to ISNA.
Iran summoned the British and Norwegian ambassadors to Tehran in response to the ‘hostile character’ of London-based Persian language media and the Norwegian parliament speaker’s ‘interventionists stance’ on Iran’s internal affairs, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry cited by Reuters.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are softer after a mixed cash open and despite a brief foray higher, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, as sentiment remains subdued amid recession/inflation concerns.
The breakdown features modest outperformance in the FTSE MIB as Italian election results are in-line with expectations.
Stateside, futures are lower across the board in-fitting with peers going into a week of Fed speak and inflation data.
Click here for more detail.

FX

DXY climbed to a fresh YTD high of 114.58 before paring modestly, but remaining firmer, as GBP in particular lifts off worst levels.
Cable succumbed to a flash crash overnight, with GBP/USD hitting an all-time-low around 1.0350 as participants confidence in the economy slips.
EUR suffers amid the mentioned USD move but derives relative benefit from GBP, while ECB speakers thus far have added little.
Antipodeans and CAD weighed on by broader risk and commodity pressure.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said the government and BoJ share views on concerns about a weak JPY, while he added that FX intervention had a certain effect and there is no change to the stance that they will respond to market moves as needed, according to Reuters.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0298 vs exp. 7.0019 (prev. 6.9920)
PBoC imposed a 20% risk reserve requirement for FX forward sales from September 28th to rein in yuan weakness.
Click here for more detail.
Click here for OpEx for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Gilts have retained some composure after slumping over 200ticks at the commencement of trade and have settled around halfway between intraday extremes.
EGBs downbeat in sympathy while BTPs marginally lag core-EGB peers as Italian as-expected election results are digested with BTP-Bund only modestly wider as such.
Stateside, USTs are pressured in-fitting with peers and also conscious of the week’s supply docket getting underway via a 43bln 2yr.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent November futures remain subdued in early European trade following last week’s recession-induced losses.
Spot gold trades in tandem with the Buck and sees resistance at around USD 1,650/oz after falling to USD 1,627/oz as a casualty of the Sterling flash crash overnight.
LME metals are softer across the board with 3M copper futures having a hard time reclaiming USD +7,500/t status with upside capped by the Buck.
Iraq began trial operations at the Karabala oil refinery which has a production capacity of 140k bpd, according to a statement from the Oil Ministry.
German Chancellor Scholz signed a strategic agreement with UAE’s President on accelerating energy security and industrial growth, while UAE’s ADNOC signed an agreement with Germany’s RWE which includes ADNOC exporting its first LNG cargo to RWE and will conduct trial shipments of low-carbon ammonia to Germany. Furthermore, Chancellor Scholz said while visiting Doha that he talked with the Emir about LNG deliveries and that they want to achieve further progress, according to Reuters.
Germany is preparing a national electricity price cap to be implemented this fall in the scenario the EU falls to agree on a similar move for the entirety of the bloc, via WSJ citing officials.
Vitol’s CEO said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference that Russian gas supply cuts put enormous strain on supply-demand in Europe and that high gas prices are to impact 60%-80% of demand, while Ecopetrol’s CEO said they are increasing crude exports to Europe this year to replace Russian supplies and are drilling 600 oil wells this year.
Anglo American (AAL LN) tightens copper production guidance for Chile to 560k-580k tonnes of copper (prev. 560k-600k tonnes) due to lower throughput at Los Bronces caused by a combination of water restrictions and a change in ore characteristics, via Reuters.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

UK PM Truss said she is determined to make the special relationship with the US even more special and said she agreed with US President Biden that it is vital to protect the Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement, while she wants to find a way forward with a negotiated solution with the EU, according to Reuters and a CNN interview.
UK PM Truss is to review visa schemes in an attempt to ease UK labour shortages, according to FT.
UK Chancellor Kwarteng hinted that more tax cuts are on the way and claimed his tax cuts “favour people right across the income scale” amid accusations they mainly help the rich, according to Evening Standard.
UK Chancellor Kwarteng said he is focused on growing the economy and the longer term when asked about the market reaction to his statement on Friday. Kwarteng added that he shares ideas with BoE Governor Bailey but added that Bailey is completely independent and Kwarteng is confident the BoE is dealing with inflation, according to Reuters.
UK opposition Labour Party leader Starmer said they would reintroduce the top rate of income tax at 45% which the government announced to scrap last week, while he added that they will support the government plan to lower the basic rate of income tax to 19%, according to Reuters.
Italy’s right-wing bloc is seen winning the national election with 43.3% and centre-left bloc is seen winning 25.4%, according to the first projection by LA7 TV based on the actual vote count.. Click here for newsquawk snap analysis.
Italy’s Meloni said Italians gave clear backing to a centre-right government led by the Brothers of Italy and said the situation is difficult and needs contribution from everyone. It was separately reported that Italy’s Democratic Party conceded in the election and said it will be the main opposition force, while Italy’s Meloni claimed leadership of the next Italian government, according to Reuters and AFP.

DATA RECAP

German Ifo Business Climate New (Sep) 84.3 vs. Exp. 87.0 (Prev. 88.5, Rev. 88.6); Current Conditions New (Sep) 94.5 vs. Exp. 96.0 (Prev. 97.5); Expectations New (Sep) 75.2 vs. Exp. 78.7 (Prev. 80.3, Rev. 80.5)
Ifo: Almost all economic sectors in the minus, the German economy is facing a recession. Price expectations increased again, more than every second company says they are to increase prices.
UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Sep) 0.7% (Prev. -1.3%)

NOTABLE HEADLINES

NHC said Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to begin strengthening rapidly and is expected to become a major hurricane mid-week which may reach the west coast of Florida by Friday.
Binance will implement a burn mechanism to burn all trading fees on Luna Classic (LUNC) spot and margin trading pairs.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded mostly negative in a resumption of last week’s global stock rout amid the continued surge in the dollar and higher yields, while there was also FX volatility which saw a flash crash in GBP/USD to a record low.
ASX 200 was dragged lower amid losses in the commodity-related sectors and with sentiment dampened by the collapse of potential M&A deals involving Ramsay Health-KKR and Link Administration-Dye & Durham.
Nikkei 225 underperformed with Mazda Motors among the worst hit as it considers exiting Russian operations.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retraced most of their initial losses with Hong Kong underpinned following the scrapping of hotel quarantine policy and with casinos boosted as Macau is to resume tour groups from China, while the property industry benefits after China Construction Bank formed a CNY 30bln housing rental fund and some Twitter sources also circulated that some China state banks were reportedly ordered to buy stocks to contain selling.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

PBoC injected CNY 42bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and CNY 93bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a net CNY 133bln injection.
There were rumours circulating on social media of a coup against Chinese President Xi, although experts and journalists in Beijing dismissed the rumours and said there was no evidence to support them, according to The Print.
Philippines Stock Exchange announced a trading suspension for Monday amid a typhoon in the capital, according to Reuters.

NOTABLE APAC DATA

Japanese Manufacturing PMI (Sep P) 51.0 (Prev. 51.5)
Japanese Services PMI (Sep P) 51.9 (Prev. 49.5)
Japanese Composite PMI (Sep P) 50.9 (Prev. 49.4)
end

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.14 PTS OR 1.20% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.13 PTS OR 0.44% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 722.28 PTS OR 2.66% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.79% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1609//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.1609// /Oil DOWN TO 78.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.53 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/RUSSIA

END

CHINA/

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

ITALY

First Sweden and now Italy elects a right winger

(zerohedge)

Meloni’s Right-Wing Alliance Wins Clear Majority In Italian Elections

SUNDAY, SEP 25, 2022 – 05:20 PM

Europe’s unelected authoritarian ruler, Ursula von der Leyen, is not going to be happy: according to early exit polls out of Italy, the right-wing bloc of Giorgia Meloni – which the ultra-left wing press just can’t stop comparing to Mussolini – is set for a historic, if largely expected, victory and a clear majority which will propel Meloni to the top of the Italian government as the country’s next prime minister. Her Brothers of Italy party won the biggest share of the vote in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, according to an exit poll released by Italian national broadcaster Rai. She would require approval from junior partners in her coalition to assume the role.

According to an exit poll from Rai, Meloni’s alliance which includes Salvini’s League and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia will win around 43% of the vote. The Center-Left alliance will have just 25.5%-29.5% of the vote, while the 5 Star movement has 13.5%-17.5% of the final vote.

Italy’s electoral system, which strongly favors parties that run as part of a coalition, is expected to help the right to an ample majority in both houses of Parliament: with 228 votes in the Lower House and 115 seats in the Senate (according to SkyTG24), Meloni will have a majority as just 104 votes are required.

As the WSJ notes, the Italian election is “the first big test of the European Union’s political cohesion as it confronts Russia’s attempt to redraw the continent’s post-Cold War order. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s restriction of natural-gas deliveries has sparked an energy-price crunch that, combined with other inflationary pressures, is expected to push much of Europe into a recession this winter.”

Meloni replaces former Goldman Sachs partner and ECB technocrat and globalist, Mario Draghi, and will be the country’s first female prime minister.

The likely right-wing government will face difficult decisions over how to protect Italian households and businesses from sky-high prices for natural gas and electricity. While Italy’s parlous public finances allow limited scope for fiscal largess, if the UK is any example – and it is – Italy will engage in a similar strategy of targeted and debt-funded fiscal stimulus which will lead to a blowout in Italian debt, a further plunge in the euro and much chaos everywhere.

Italy’s massive debt of roughly 150% of GDP, combined with Italy’s weak long-term growth record, makes the country vulnerable to bond-market selloffs if investors lose confidence in the soundness of Rome’s fiscal policies, and dependent on the European Central Bank to keep its bond yields stable. ECB support has typically been conditional on Rome following cautious budget policies and enacting economic overhauls aimed at improving growth. In other words, the Berlusconi example of 2011 is still vivid – if Meloni’s policies displease the ECB, Christine Lagarde will simply refuse (or forget) to buy Italian bonds, sparking Europe’s next sovereign debt crisis at the worst possible moment.

During the election campaign, Meloni tried to reassure voters and investors that she will keep Italy’s mammoth debt under control and won’t question the country’s foreign alliances or support for Ukraine. Expect all of that to change tomorrow.

As for Europe’s crumbling and unelected oligarchy which will be terribly vexed by the result…

END

Europe’s first cold snap begins this week and will worsen the energy crisis

(zerohedge)

Europe’s First Cold Snap Begins This Week Amid Worsening Energy Crisis

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Europe is plagued with an energy crisis, and the cold season is coming ahead of schedule.

The stability of the EU’s natural gas reserves now depends on a mild winter. But new weather forecasts for next week indicate that “Arctic chill will blow across western Europe through next week will be the first test of how willing people are to delay switching on the heating in a bid to save energy and ease household budgets,” according to Bloomberg.

Forecaster Maxar WeatherDesk said temperatures in London would sink 5 degrees Celsius below average, falling as low as 6.5 degrees Celsius overnight on Sept. 27. In Frankfurt, Germany, temperatures will fall 3.5 degrees Celsius below normal levels on the 28th, while France and Spain will see temperatures 3-4 degrees lower than the seasonal norm.

“It will turn even colder early next week as a plunge of Arctic air surges southwards, and a strong northerly wind will accentuate the chilly feel,” according to the UK’s Met Office.

Germany, France, and Spain have approved energy conservation measures to decrease demand for NatGas, while the EU as a whole has reached the 80% target (now 86.9%) of filling storage tanks by Oct. 1.

According to Aurora Energy Research, full NatGas storage could sustain EU countries for at least three months this winter. In Germany, the bloc’s largest economy and home to a quarter of EU storage, there are about 80-90 days of fuel in storage.

But with a squeeze on regional supplies exacerbated by Western sanctions against Russia that have backfired, plus Russian energy giant Gazprom’s shuttering of Nord Stream 1 to Europe — the stability of Europe’s NatGas reserves depends on a relatively mild winter because if it gets cold enough, demand will soar and draw on reserves faster, catapulting NatGas prices even higher.

The blast of cold air next week is troublesome because the EU heating season doesn’t begin until the first half of October.

Continuing to reduce Natgas demand is what European countries need to do because the latest National Grid Plc data show early morning UK fuel demand is already increasing. There needs to be a more significant conservation effort ahead of the colder months or face a very dark and expensive winter.

One would think Europeans wish for global warming this winter to starve off the rapid drawdown on NatGas reserves as the crippling energy crisis could extend well into 2023. This isn’t a one-winter story.

end

HUNGARY/EU

Orban has always been a thorn in the EU’s side. He is now calling for sanctions on Russia to be lifted by the end of the year

(Cody/ReMix)

Orbán Calls For Sanctions On Russia To Be Lifted By End Of Year

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

PM Orbán predicts that lifting sanctions will lead to a significant drop in inflation and a halving of energy prices…

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (Fidesz) has appealed to the European Union to lift sanctions against Russia by the end of the year at the latest in order to alleviate soaring inflation not just in Europe, but across the globe.

At a parliamentary group meeting in Balatonalmádi on Lake Balaton, Orbán warned that the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv is no longer a matter between the two countries and is escalating into a global economic war expected to last into next year.

Brussels’ bureaucrats promised in the summer that the measures taken against Russia would harm the Kremlin and not EU citizens. In Orbán’s view, however, the opposite is the case. The Fidesz politician noted that he considers the sanctions partly responsible for the energy crisis and inflation.

The costs for natural gas had already doubled because of the discussion of appropriate measures in June, and tripled a month later. According to the Hungarian prime minister, the current price shocks are hitting families particularly hard.

Orbán is not the only one calling for an end to sanctions, with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotaki calling for a repeal of Russian sanctions as well. Other political leaders, such as Matteo Salvini, who leads the conservative League party, says that Europe needs a “rethink” on Russian sanctions due to the harmful economic effects.

Orbán predicts that lifting sanctions will lead to an immediate halving of energy prices and a significant drop in inflation. Thanks to that, the European economy could regain strength and avoid the impending recession.

The conservative Alternative for Germany party has also been pushing for an end to sanctions and an opening of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline due to soaring energy costs in Germany. AfD member of the Bundestag, Mariana Harder-Kühnel, said she agrees with Orbán.

“The EU bureaucracy has turned the screw on the sanctions, and now we are paying the bill,” she said.

“The problems are not only with food supply and medical care but also with waves of business and private bankruptcies,” she added.

Bill Blain tackles the monumental policy mistake by Truss’ government

(Bill Blain)

Blain: The UK’s Monumental Policy Mistake – How Bad Will It Get?

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 08:25 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“This is the man who bet it all on Red and it came up Black…”

What a mess. Kwasi Kwarteng’s Special Fiscal Operation failed to stabilise UK markets and has zero prospect of driving growth. The new government stumbled at the first jump. How bad will it get? What are the implications? Who is next for the Chancellor’s job?

There are policy mistakes, and there are Policy Mistakes, but few compare to the market Judder on Friday morning…. In terms of screaming, all-in POLICY MISTAKES new UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s not-a-budget, his “Special Fiscal Operation”, went down about as well as a battalion of Russian chocolate tea-pots on the road to Kyiv. It was moment confidence in the UK’s Virtuous Sovereign Trinity snapped. Sterling Crashed. Gilt yields capped wider.

It ain’t over yet, this morning Sterling traded below 1.03 for the first time ever during an Asian flash crash. I will post regular updates on the comments page and Twitter as this crisis unfolds. The working assumption is even if Gilts and Sterling stabilise – the damage is already done. Expect… volatile politics and markets.

This is going to be a critical week for sterling. There are calls for the Bank of England to jump in with a 100 bp rate hike and currency intervention to stem the crippling currency losses. There are even rumours of yet another internal Tory coup being scoped in Westminster. Ministers trying to talk up export prospects on the back of the currency collapse knew they were defending the indefensible – the UK is a re-exporter and is importing further inflation at speed.

I warned three weeks ago that new UK Premier Liz Truss and Kwarteng had “5 days to Avert a Confidence Crisis in the UK”. She got a time extension because of the Royal Funeral. Turns out I was right to worry about markets. On Friday morning it happened – a 0.7% jump in Gilt Yields and the 3% tumble in Sterling. The response to the not-a-budget confirmed just how badly market confidence in the UK’s political competence, sterling stability and gilt market sustainability has been shaken.

Kwarteng’s response to the mayhem? “I don’t comment on market movements.”

Fair enough. When you know nothing and people suspect you are an idiot it’s best to stay quiet so as not to confirm it.

But is he aware of the consequences of what he’s done? The UK’s reputation for fiscal prudence has been sacrificed on the altar of political expediency. This is going to hurt. The weekend analysis was harshly critical – it was right to be so. Dr Doom, Nouriel Roubini, tweeted “Truss and her cabinet at clueless.” Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said the UK will be remembered for the “worst macro-economic policies of any major country in a long-time..” He called the policies naïve, and the UK was an emerging market turning into a submerging market. I could fill the rest of this morning’s Porridge with similar negative punditry and doomster soundbites from analysts presenting variations on the same thing.

If there is a single positive economic comment written by someone not called Patrick Minford or Gerald Lyons – please post it in the comments section, because I can’t find it.

Of course, there is always a chance events may yet bail Kwarteng out. Dollar strength might suddenly reverse if the Fed joins other banks to scale back the Greenback’s inexorable rise, or maybe things may suddenly change re Ukraine/Russia to reduce energy crisis pressures.. but these are hopes.

Its best to know where the lifeboats are before the iceberg, rather than looking for them while swimming.

Kwarteng’s budget failed on two critical elements. First, it was incredibly tone deaf – and likely to prove an unforgivable electoral mistake by a new chancellor who, by his comment about his new government only being in office 19 days, seems to have forgotten it’s been his party running the nation for the last 12 years. Secondly, the policy choices were largely for show to create a sense of shock and awe. He succeeded in making himself look stupid and inexperienced. Hubris.

Let’s start off by making a number of things clear:

The new UK government of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng had to act. There was no alternative but to alleviate the massive consumer and business crisis triggered by inflation and the energy crisis. The market’s sell off on Friday reflects how badly they got the solutions wrong. Mistakes of Friday’s degree are not easily forgiven or quickly forgotten.
Political instability will likely remain at crisis level in the UK. Already there are rumours of a no-confidence motion. Kwarteng and Truss were not the first choice of the majority of Tory MPs. Tory grandee Kenneth Clark was one among many criticising the budget. When (if) Truss realises the scale of the market debacle its not inconceivable we’ll get yet another New Chancellor.

On the other hand:

The UK is not going to default.

Although the UK’s credit default swap price has gapped wider in recent weeks, (up 170% last week!) the UK retains control of its financial sovereignty. The vast bulk of the national debt is denominated in Sterling. If the worst happens, we can simply print more money to repay current debt – which will have massive consequences on the currency and interest rates, but confers enormous advantages and likelihood of long-term stability – unlike nations that have borrowed in currencies not of their own control.

The UK is not a financial basket case.

Despite what analysts were saying about Blighty now being doomed by political incompetence, we are actuall a thriving, inventive, innovative, well-educated and vibrant economy.. Ignore Dr Doom’s weekend prediction of an imminent trip to the IMF – the UK’s sovereign finances aren’t so dire. Yet.

The UK will muddle through. We always do. This is a political and economic crisis. We can solve the second one after we solve the first. We may have to shoot a Chancellor pour le encourage les autres, but at some point UK Inc stocks and UK Sov Plc debt are going to be massive buys.

However, before we get to that stage, lets reflect on the reality of what really happened last week?

Kwarteng’s plan was to deliver two goals:

Stability and confidence through cogent and coherent policies.
Growth to stall a recession through a tax giveaway.

He failed massively on the first, and will fail on the second. He chose to grandstand the policies and spin confabulations about growth prospects. He has utterly lost the trust of the market – impressive after only three weeks in office. More to the point, the Bank of England and the Treasury will struggle to conceal their delight in Kwarteng being brought low after he browbeat BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and sacked the Treasury secretary for not being radical enough. Hubris indeed.

Kwarteng played politics – the Banker Bonus a desperate attempt to gas-light a Brexit dividend, while the abolition of the top tax rate played to Tory faithful (who will benefit most). They were pointless, tone-deaf political signals. He thought he was being clever. What the market saw was the cost to the UK of financing the energy bailouts and stimulating recovery through increased borrowing being used to back pointless tax bribes, an unnecessary increase in the national debt, regressive taxes and no attempt to look at better alternatives. 2/10 on his test paper.

In terms of UK Financial Stability:

Friday increased the potential for the UK to enter a destructive cycle of economic instability. Using the Virtuous Sovereign Trinity analogy: as confidence in the politics weakens, then the currency and bond market will wobble.

Gilt Yields jumped – interest rates rose, even as the currency crashed. As the currency falls, inflation via imported goods rises, causing the Bank of England to further raise interest rates, causing the bond market (Gilts) to sell off. The UK is a re-exporter, meaning a lower currency does nothing to boost exports. At the same time, the cost of debt funding rises, the market worries more, and the currency continues to fall, reflect the market’s distrust of policy and consequences.

The UK is now caught in a negative feedback loop that could spawn a bunch of secondary consequences. Not the least of these is chronic currency instability will cause investors to switch out of sterling – including the folk who got the biggest tax breaks last week. They will be investing their tax windfalls outside the UK. So much for the trickle-down effect. (I wrote about the trickle-down fallacy last week.) Meanwhile, corporates retain their increased profits from lower corporation taxes and decide the prospect for returns in the UK are less than more stable economic zones.

The second aspect is growth:

Truss and Kwarteng have told us this was budget for growth, putting money into the economy to engender a boom. That is not going to happen. Unlike the Barbour Boom of the early 1970s – which was founded on the back of a rising economy, this budget “giveaway” was money thrown into an already tumbling economy. The opportunity to boost growth was many many months ago. In effect Kwarteng threw good money after bad.

The average UK household has an pre-tax income £36,000 will see a £526 reduction in their tax and national insurance. (68% of UK households earn less than the average.) But, their average energy bill has risen from last year’s Energy Price Cap of £1277 to £2500. Inflation has already cut the purchasing power of the average salary by over £1500 in the last 12 months. Their mortgages and credit card debt is already more expensive. In real terms “average” UK households have seen their net post tax spending power of nearly £29,000 reduced down to £26,000 from £28,000 last year – even after their tax bribe from Kwarteng.

That’s a massive real cut to real income – and leaves the bulk of the UK population with significantly less discretionary spending power to instigate the boom Kwarteng has promised. There is no consumer money to fuel a boom. It’s a similar story in UK SMEs.

At the other end of the spectrum, the top 1% of UK households, those with yearly earnings in excess of £160k, will see a £2720 tax cut, which will also be more than swallowed by higher energy costs and inflation. Higher mortgage rates and rising bills, (I not our Virgin Media internet bill has just gone up by 53%!) will hit their discretionary spending.

I was in Wales over the weekend – the BBC Welsh news observed less than 9,000 Welsh Citizens out of a nation of 3.2 million pay the higher 45% tax rate. The abolition of the 45% Higher Earners Tax Rate was hailed by Tories as the showstopper, Rabbit out the Hat, icing on the cake of Kwarteng’s tax bonanza. It was a slap in the face with a rancid halibut to most citizens.

What should the Tories have done?

At the end of the day, the tax cuts in Stamp duty, Income Tax, National Insurance and Corporation taxes will cost £45 bln. He will borrow a further £30 bln plus to cover energy bailouts. The costs of funding that debt have doubled in recent months. There are no figures on just how much we expect the energy bailout liability to cost long-term. The tax cuts and bailout will not stop a recession that is already upon the UK – and will be little more than a minor alleviation. While £525 a year will be welcome for the average family it will be swallowed by rising bills. Effectively the tiny sums lower earners will not pay in taxes will make zero difference to their diminishing discretionary spending.

The ending of the Banker bonus restrictions is pointless. Most bankers saw their salaries increased years ago to compensate lower bonuses. The optics of banker bonuses are terrible – no matter how much the City applauds it.

The abolition of the 45% tax rate will make the top 1% of the population smile, and buy a few more bottles of Bolly. The marginal worth to them is meaningless. If they are clever enough to be earning that much, they will be clever enough to be investing outside sterling. Again, the optics are beyond terrible.

In brutal terms the tax cuts to stem a recession that is already here were pointless. Kwarteng would have been better to have never mentioned them – and reduced the amount to be borrowed. Kwarteng was wrong. Rishi was right. The Government would have been better to have refocused tax cuts solely on supporting the lowest earners. A considered statement about raising the tax threshold to start paying taxes, while raising high earner taxes would have had milage in terms of the market, and widespread political acceptance..

Funding the energy bailouts via Gilt funding, rather than a windfall tax was political largesse from Truss and Kwarteng to their supporters and a clumsy attempt to differentiate themselves from Labour and Rishi Sunak. Although a windfall tax on Energy companies would have consequences, the massive increase in funding Truss and Kwarteng have committed themselves to – over £250 bln in the next three years – could have been significantly lower, and would have taken the future tax burden off households.

Kwarteng’s Growth Offensive was a massive fail.

When the new Government came in 3 weeks ago they promised to sort the economy and the NHS. I will write about the NHS later this week. Based on the ABCD Health Plan announced last week – it’s going to be another massive disappointment.

What would sort the UK? A snap election…. Oh dear… Instead, Kwarteng will try to brazen this out… oh dear squared.

END

UK POUND

A nothing statement

(zerohedge)

Pound Tumbles After BoE Issues Brief, Toothless Statement Over FX Turmoil

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 11:40 AM

After numerous media leaks this morning that the Bank of England would address the historic, record drop in sterling – and, according to some, perhaps even intervene – moments ago the BOE issued a brief statement which is certain to disappoint anyone hoping for some imminent action from the central bank.

Here is the full 3-paragraph statement:

The Bank is monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of financial assets.

In recent weeks, the Government has made a number of important announcements. The Government’s Energy Price Guarantee will reduce the near-term peak in inflation. Last Friday the Government announced its Growth Plan, on which the Chancellor has provided further detail in his statement today. I welcome the Government’s commitment to sustainable economic growth, and to the role of the Office for Budget Responsibility in its assessment of prospects for the economy and public finances.

The role of monetary policy is to ensure that demand does not get ahead of supply in a way that leads to more inflation over the medium term. As the MPC has made clear, it will make a full assessment at its next scheduled meeting of the impact on demand and inflation from the Government’s announcements, and the fall in sterling, and act accordingly. The MPC will not hesitate to change interest rates as necessary to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit.

Not surprisingly, with the BoE confirming just how toothless the central bank has become in light of the current FX crisis, just as we warned earlier…

… cable is now tumbling as expected, and – absent any imminent intervention from the BOE – is likely to take out its overnight lows shortly.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Russia vows full protection for any annexed territory if the people vote for it

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

Russia Vows ‘Full Protection’ For Any Annexed Territory As Nuclear Threat Grows

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that regions of Ukraine where referendums are being held will be under the Kremlin’s “full protection” if they are annexed by Russia, raising the prospect of the use of nuclear weapons.

Residents of four Russian-occupied areas in eastern and southern Ukraine continued voting for four days on whether to join Russia.

“Following those referendums, Russia of course will respect the expression of the will of those people who for many long years have been suffering from the abuses of the neo-Nazi regime,” Lavrov told reporters this weekend after addressing the United Nations General Assembly. He was referring to the Kyiv government.

When asked by a reporter if Russia would possibly use nuclear weapons to defend any annexed regions in Ukraine, Lavrov said that any Russian territory will be “under the full protection of the state.”

“All of the laws, doctrines, concepts, and strategies of the Russian Federation apply to all of its territory,” he said while referring to Russia’s doctrine on using nukes.

Several days ago, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued a warning on social media that Russia is prepared to use nuclear weapons. That came after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech announcing he would mobilize hundreds of thousands of troops, while he also issued a veiled threat about using all weapons in Russia’s arsenal to defend its territorial integrity.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a meeting on Aug. 4, 2022. (Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via Reuters)

While Putin’s comment was vague, Medvedev’s post on Telegram was more explicit. Medvedev currently serves as the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council.

“Russia has announced that not only mobilization capabilities but also any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons and weapons based on new principles, could be used for such protection,” he wrote, according to a translation.

The referendums in four eastern Ukrainian regions, aimed at annexing territory Russia has taken by force since its invasion in February, were being staged for a third day on Sunday and the Russian parliament could move to formalize the annexation within days.

By incorporating the four areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia into Russia, Moscow could portray attacks to retake them as an attack on Russia itself, a warning to Kyiv and its Western allies.

Ukraine and its allies have dismissed the referendums as a sham designed to justify an escalation of the war and a mobilization drive by Moscow after recent battlefield losses.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday his country would regain all the territory Russia had taken. “We will definitely liberate our entire country—from Kherson to the Luhansk region, from Crimea to the Donetsk region,” he said on the Telegram messaging app.

Nuclear Threat

It comes as Navy Admiral Charles A. Richard, the head of U.S. Strategic Command, acknowledged Russia’s recent warnings about using nuclear weapons.

“We have not had to do that in over 30 years. The implications of that are profound,” he said during a panel discussion last week. “They’re profound for homeland defense. They’re profound for strategic deterrence as well as us achieving national objectives. And this is no longer theoretical,” he added.

Richard added that it’s now possible that for the first time in decades, it’s possible the United States will have a “possible direct armed conflict with a nuclear-capable peer.”

“Russia and China can escalate to any level of violence that they choose in any domain with any instrument of power worldwide,” Richard added.

END

RUSSIA//THE DONBAS

Paul Craig Roberts believes that the voting in the Donbas might spare a nuclear war. Let us see how this plays out

(Paul Craig Roberts)

We Might Be Spared Nuclear War For Now But The Threat Of Home-Grown Tyranny Remains

SUNDAY, SEP 25, 2022 – 11:30 PM

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

As readers know, I am convinced that Putin’s toleration of insults and provocations has had the effect of encouraging more and worse provocations and not, as he intended, to downplay conflict. As you also know, I am convinced that his “limited military operation” in Donbass designed to protect the Donbass Russians, formerly a part of Russia, from horrible abuse by Ukrainian forces and the neo-Nazi militias, was a mistake. It is a mistake because the West characterized a limited operation as an “invasion of Ukraine,” and used its slow progress as evidence of Russian failure. It is a mistake because the go-slow nature of the Russian offensive in order to minimize the impact on civilian lives and infrastructure gave the West plenty of time to convince itself to get more and more involved with diplomatic support, money, armaments and ammunition, training, and now with satellite information for targeting the Russian forces.

As I see it, Putin has been behaving as British Prime Minister Chamberlain is alleged to have behaved, thus encouraging more aggressive actions. Wanting peace at all costs brings war.

As it is no longer possible for the Kremlin to speak of “our Western partners” or to deny that the West is at war with Russia, the Kremlin, trying to avoid a war that it knows would be nuclear, has reached my conclusion of eight years ago that if the areas in today’s artificial borders of Ukraine that require Russian protection were reincorporated into Russia, the conflict would have to cease or become direct Western military aggression against Russia. As Biden says he has no stomach for a war with Russia and will not permit one, and as NATO is incapable of such war, the referendums that begin today in the liberated areas of Ukraine, which without question will succeed, promise to reduce the threat of Armageddon. Although in my opinion the leadership everywhere in the Western world is Satanic and insane, I do not think the Western governing elites are ready to commit suicide by attacking Russian territory. The West can say it doesn’t recognize the rights of people to self-determination, but if Russia says it is Russian territory, it is.

So that you understand, the referendums are Putin’s way of ending the conflict before it widens into nuclear war. Putin’s rescue of the world from nuclear war will not be acknowledged by the Western presstitutes, Washington’s puppet EU and UK governments, or by the puppet who serves as NATO secretary general.

But what they think does not matter. Putin, belatedly, is doing his best to save us all from nuclear war. Pray that he succeeds.

Putin’s success in forestalling nuclear war does not mean peace for Russia. The breakup of the Soviet Union by Washington that turned Soviet provinces or republics into independent states, together with the freedom the West has had for 30 years in funding NGOs and building subversive networks in the former Soviet provinces, gives Washington the opportunity to foment wars on the Russian Federation’s borders, as is now brewing between two former Central Asian Soviet Republics, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan and to foment coups such as the one in the recent attempt in Kazakhstan. The empire served a security purpose to which Russia will eventually have to return if the West continues to operate against Russia.

We do not have Putin’s help with the other threats to Western Civilization that confronts us. Internally the West is faced with an attack on itself by its own elites. The West is everywhere discredited–in the universities, the public schools, the museums, the media, movies, the Democrat Party, the 1619 Project, Identity politics, Critical Race Theory taught in public schools to children, gender theory which teaches that self-declaration, not biological fact, determines gender. Teaching children to be confused about their gender is an evil thing.

This illustrates that in the Western World lies takes precedence over facts. Facts are whatever the elites and their minions say. They have no basis in reality. Those who emphasize reality are “domestic terrorists” because they dissent from the official narratives that cannot be supported by factual evidence. Multiculturalism has turned the American nation into a tower of babel, and Identity Politics has destroyed unity. The Democrat Party has been radicalized and is firmly arraigned against white Americans who are undergoing a process of deracination and dispossession.

In my lifetime the US has been transformed from a nation into a tower of babel and from a relatively free society into a police state. The transformation into a tower of babel was an intentional policy designed to drain power from the white population. The police state has rapidly developed in the 21st century as a response to 9/11 which was orchestrated partly for that purpose. With half or more of the white population’s legitimacy challenged by the White House, with Constitutional protections eroded, and with the criminal justice system weaponized against Trump and his supporters, the United States is being primed for civil war.

In former times the US government acted to protect the people from monopolies with progressive measures, such as the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, today a dead letter law. Beginning with the Clinton regime, monopolization, already present from the destruction of independent businesses by big box store chains, has grown dramatically. Clinton signed off on the concentration of the media in a few hands. The large banks were given enormous power by the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act. The unregulated digital revolution has produced a monopoly over digital communication which is used to censor and suppress free speech. Big Pharma and the medical insurance companies are in the process of completing their control over medicine by forcing independent medical practices into large health care organizations where doctors are employees subject to Big Pharma protocols. They achieved this by having medical insurance and Medicare pay a larger percentage of amounts billed to the large bureaucratic entities than to private practitioners. The financial difference forced doctors to sell or merge their practices into the larger entities and means the end of the Hippocratic Oath as we saw with Covid when doctors who are employees of hospitals and HMOs were prohibited from treating patients with HCQ and Ivermectin.

Big Pharma’s power over medicine and legislators was demonstrated last month when the California legislature passed Big Pharma’s bill to punish doctors who saved lives by using HCQ and Ivermectin. The bill defines “scientific consensus” as whatever Big Pharma influenced/controlled NIH, CDC, and FDA say it is. Under the bill, doctors are guilty of “unprofessional conduct” and can lose their licenses for disseminating “misinformation or disinformation related to COVID-19, including false or misleading information regarding the nature and risks of the virus, its prevention and treatment; and the development, safety, and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines.” https://www.globalresearch.ca/all-eyes-gov-newsom-california-looks-pass-nations-first-law-punish-doctors-covid-misinformation/5793420 In other words, doctors and medical scientists who disagreed with Big Pharma shill Fauci and saved lives are to be kicked out of medical practice.

Big Pharma, with its grants to medical schools, its funding of medical research that serves its profits, its influence over medical journals and public health agencies and regulators such as NIH, CDC, and FDA, and its lobbying power with legislatures, has gained control over the practice of medicine.

Wherever you look in the Western world autonomy is disappearing. People have less and less control over their lives and their children. If they express thoughts contrary to official narratives they risk their jobs and financial security. Today’s intrusions into the family were unthinkable a few decades ago. Digital money, which is in the works, will terminate all human autonomy. If you annoy the government you will be cut off from your funds. What you can spend money on will be controlled in the interest of profits for the favored and whatever cause or ideology is prevailing, such as health, a green world. Digital money is not cash. You can’t keep a supply of purchasing power at home. Governments can prevent the use of digital money from purchasing disfavored products.

Once the media becomes a propaganda ministry, as the Western media is, it is easy to steal the people’s freedom. An excuse can always be found or orchestrated–national security (9/11), medical emergency (Covid pandemic), Insurrection by MAGA Republicans. By the time a trusting and gullible public catches on to a former deception they are in the middle of a new one. As the erosion of freedom is gradual nothing is done about it. As the young only know what they are born into, the growing restraints on freedom are normality to them. The young don’t miss what they never experienced, and they do not know what has been lost.

If Putin succeeds in stopping the march into nuclear war, we still face the challenge that we are being transitioned into a police state. Putin is not going to come liberate us, so what is to be done? How can we claim the high ground when we have been marginalized as racists and insurrectionists? How can we organize when the FBI will descend upon us declaring us to be domestic extremists who are a threat to America?

In Canada liberty is in its death throes. In Germany and other parts of Europe historians cannot report facts that expose the falsity of official narratives. The outcome of the November congressional and 2024 presidential elections could leave us with a one-party state, which is the Democrats’ intent. Knowing that they will be protected by the presstitutes, the Democrats can again steal the election or Biden can declare that a MAGA election plot has been uncovered and federalize the election.

Russia, China, India, Iran, and other countries outside the Western world are moving forward with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that is creating a new center of power, while the West declines politically, economically, morally, and culturally as the confidence of people who formerly comprised nations continues to be destroyed by anti-white propaganda.

If you want to comprehend the collapse of the West, compare, for example, Liz Truss and her UK government with the British government around the middle of the 19th century. James Grant in his biography of Walter Bagehot reports, for example, that Prime Minister Gladstone translated Horace and Homer, published substantial works on religion and Neapolitan politics, and addressed the Ionian assembly in classical Greek. Parliamentarian Robert Lowe was fluent in Sanskrit. Sir George Lewis was the author of Survey of the Astronomy of the Ancients. The House of Lords had its own learned members. Henry Herbert, 4th Earl of Carnarvon, was a Fellow of the Royal Society, Britain’s National Academy of Sciences. Today we have presidents and prime ministers who can’t speak English.

In the US merit has been redefined as racist, and educational standards have been so lowered that the large grocery store chains do not trust their checkout clerks to give change.

The Western world has sunk so deeply into depravity that today depravity is celebrated. Young school children are subjected to performances by drag queens paid for by property taxes. Depravity now has its own flag and proud marchers. Do we really want to go where we are being led?

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Ukrainian Territories To Be Absorbed Into Russia By Week’s End: Lawmaker

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 10:20 AM

With four occupied regions of Ukraine currently in the midst of a five-day referendum on whether to join the Russian federation, a Kremlin lawmaker told state media over the weekend that the territories are likely to be absorbed by Russia on September 30.

“Taking into account the preliminary results of the referendums and Russia’s readiness to acknowledge them, the accession of the territories is likely to take place as early as on September 30,” the unnamed member of Russia’s State Duma said to TASS.

Voting is set to conclude Tuesday in Donestk, Luhansk and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, meaning as early as Wednesday or even Thursday announcements of results are likely to trickle out, paving the way for a potential Friday official declaration.

While Russian forces do not yet control the entirety of each of these territories, their annexation would constitute Ukraine losing almost 20% of its geographic territory.

Russian President Vladimir Putin might himself make the proclamation following the referendums, which Ukrainian leaders along with Washington have dismissed as a “sham” – saying they won’t be recognized. Russian media reports indicate:

The lawmaker said Russian President Vladimir Putin could take part in the procedure on September 30. “I don’t know if he will [participate], but he is likely to do so,” the MP said.

Given that on Saturday Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov vowed new territories would be under Russia’s “full protection” – there is more than likely to be a major uptick in the intensity of fighting to follow the referenda results announcement in eastern Ukraine.

Meanwhile, much has been made of both Putin’s and top national security official Dmitry Medvedev’s nuclear rhetoric of the past days. What’s being largely overlooked in Western media headlines are the Friday statements from Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who stressed that Moscow’s nuclear doctrine hasn’t changed.

“We are not threatening anyone with nuclear weapons,” Ryabkov said. “The criteria for their use are outlined in Russia’s military doctrine.” He said that their use can only be contemplated if Russia is facing an “existential threat” and is forced to defend itself on that basis of a direct attack on its soil.

end

USA responds to Russian threats to use nuclear weapons

(Zerohedge)

Sullivan Vows Decisive Response, Catastrophic Consequences If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 03:40 PM

After it was previously revealed in The Washington Post days ago that US officials have been pushing back against nuclear threats issued by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his top officials via diplomatic backchannels, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan issued his first public response and the administration’s counter-warning Sunday.

Sullivan warned the US is ready to “respond decisively” if Russia crosses the “line” regarding nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, stressing it would result in “catastrophic consequences” for Moscow. Sullivan made the statements in three separate appearances on Sunday news shows.

The Hill notes that while he didn’t get into the details of specific US actions – such as the potential for a US nuclear response – he repeated his words of willingness to “respond decisively” seven times in the three appearances Sunday.

“Let me say it plainly: If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia,” Sullivan told NBC’s “Meet the Press” in the Biden administration’s strongest warning thus far.

He added, “The United States will respond decisively. Now, in private channels we have spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean, but we want to be able to have the credibility of speaking directly to senior leadership in Russia and laying out for them what the consequences would be without getting into a rhetorical tit for tat publicly.”

He also said that Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant falls under the administration’s warnings related to Russian actions which could cause nuclear catastrophe. Sullivan outlined that any accident or deadly radiation incident at the plant, which is Europe’s largest, would be Russia’s fault, given its forces occupy the site:

“It is actually still being operated by the Ukrainian operators who are essentially at gunpoint from the Russian occupying forces, and the Russians have been consistently implying that there may be some kind of accident at this plant,” the US national security adviser said.

On the same day a fresh interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky aired on CBS wherein he also addressed Putin’s nuclear rhetoric. Putin it must be recalled, in his ‘partial mobilization’ speech on Wednesday vowed to defend Russian territory (to include portions of Ukraine which are currently holding a 5-day referendum on joining the Russian Federation) “by all available means” – further saying he’s “not bluffing”.

Zelensky in the weekend interview called it “a very dangerous signal” at a moment of success and momentum for Ukraine’s ongoing eastern counteroffensive.

“He knows that he’s losing the war,” Zelenskyy said. “In the battlefield, Ukraine has seized the initiative. He cannot explain to his society why, and he is looking for answers to these questions.”

Zelensky explained that he’s taking the nuclear threat seriously: “Maybe yesterday it was a bluff. Now, it could be a reality,” he said in the “Face the Nation” interview. “He wants to scare the whole world. These are the first steps of his nuclear blackmail. I don’t think he’s bluffing. I think the world is deterring it and containing this threat.” The Ukrainian leader added, “We need to keep putting pressure on him and not allow him to continue.”

But then again, it’s more likely the weight of Western sanctions pressure and ongoing unprecedented shipments of NATO weapons into Kiev that’s leading to what’s increasingly looking like dangerous nuclear brinkmanship – as at the same time a diplomatic solution or potential for sit-down negotiations looks to be completely in the rearview mirror.

In the meantime, Putin doesn’t look in the mood to back down either, now having expended so much in blood and treasure in the “special operation” launched seven months ago…

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL/

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

Global water shortages could crush an already weakened energy industry

(Bradstock/OilPrice.com)

The Global Water Crisis Could Crush The Energy Industry

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

Water is growing more scarce due to climate change.
Water scarcity could derail the green energy boom, and even hinder fossil fuel production.
With rising concerns over water scarcity, mainly due to climate change, there are fears that the big transition to renewable energy will be hindered even further.

For years, the energy sector, and almost every other sector, has taken water for granted, viewing it as an abundant resource. But as we move into a new era of renewable energy, the vast amounts of water required to power green energy operations may not be so easy to find. And it’s not just renewables that are under threat from water scarcity, as it also hinders fossil fuel production and threatens food security.

In recent months, we have seen extreme droughts across Europe and the U.S., which are finally making people realise the significance of water security. Stefano Venier, CEO of the Italian energy infrastructure company Snam, highlights the huge impact recent droughts have had on both food security and energy production. Labelled as ‘Europe’s worst drought in 500 years’, the low water levels have restricted shipping capabilities, as well as drying up soil and reducing summer crop yields.

Venier explains, “For a long time, water was considered [as being] for free, as something that is fully available in any quantity.” He went on to say, “Now, we are discovering that with climate change … water can become scarce.” And so, “we have to regain the perception of importance, and the value [that] … the water has, also, with respect to … energy production… we have discovered that without water, enough water, we cannot produce the energy we need, or we can’t ship the fuels for filling the power plants,” he added.

The drought has already raised concerns for nuclear power plant operators that rely on water from rivers to cool their nuclear reactors. EDF typically uses water from the Rhone and Garonne but rising water temperatures mean that nuclear power output could be reduced during hot periods. The falling water levels have also hindered traditional energy operations such as coal output, according to several European energy firms.

But the issue of water scarcity is perhaps most detrimental to hydropower projects. In the U.S., several hydropower operations are located along rivers with falling water levels, with a higher risk of water scarcity by 2050. Montana, Nevada, Texas, Arizona, California, Arkansas and Oklahoma are the most affected states. A recent study published in the Journal Water found that 61 percent of all global hydropower dams will be in basins with very high or extreme risk for droughts, floods or both. In addition, one in five hydropower dams will be in high flood risk areas, an increase from one in 25 today.

World Wildlife Fund’s Global Freshwater Lead Scientist Jeff Opperman explains, “Hydropower projects must deal with a range of hydrological risks–ranging from too little water to too much–and these risks are projected to increase in many regions due to climate change.” “Already, we’ve seen regions, such as the southwestern US, southern Africa, and Brazil, where hydropower generation has declined due to falling water levels,” he adds.

And it’s not just the U.S. that is facing these challenges. In August, Norway threatened to limit its power exports due to low reservoir levels. The country, which relies on hydropower for around 90 percent of its electricity production, increased regulations on power production to prevent hydroelectric reservoir levels from running out of water. This news came just days after the world’s longest under-sea power cable began transferring hydroelectric energy from Norway to the UK.

Norway’s Minister of Petroleum and Energy Terje Aasland explained, “We need a management mechanism or security mechanism that safeguards national security of supply so that we do not run out of water in our reservoirs.” He added, “We are now introducing a system where, when we come to a situation where the magazine capacity is below what is normal for the time of year and down to a critically low level, there will be a restriction on exports.”

These kinds of restrictions could become commonplace if these severe weather events, and related water scarcity, continue to take place. Europe’s recent heatwave far exceeded the expectations of climate experts, with several countries reaching record highs which led to wildfires in areas that had never previously experienced such events, showing the reality of the effects of climate change.

As well as the detrimental effect water scarcity has on energy output, it also has a hugely negative impact on food production. With several areas of the world seeing poorer harvests year on year, as temperatures soar and water scarcity becomes a challenge, many countries are worried about their food production levels. And the water-food-energy nexus is raising concerns over the impact of the two other factors on the energy sector. We’re already seeing this nexus work the other way, with increasing gas prices causing fertiliser shortages, which have exacerbated the impact of water shortages on agricultural yields further.

With rising concerns over water scarcity, mainly due to climate change, there are fears that the big transition to renewable energy will be hindered even further. However, even traditional fossil fuel production cannot escape from the effects of water scarcity, and the water-food-energy nexus may further exacerbate the situation, meaning that plans to mitigate this scarcity must be quickly established to avoid a major energy crisis.

end

Robert. H in his message to us:

Money seems to provoke the belief in others that we should have a commitment towards the openness and mindfulness which is a feeling we should have to pay obligatory lip service to the current liberal issues that force their way into the realm of today’s public opinion.
Today’s woke culture is naïve and the belief that no one has ever before wrestled with the tragedy of human condition or that we may know more about it than those who suffered themselves. Ask starving Africans or people of the 3rd world or even minorities close to home to learn. It is true, sometimes you really do have to walk in another person’s shoes to understand.It’s not as if Tolstoy did not worry over goodness, kindness, and truth or even wrote “war and peace”; or that Socrates himself didn’t have such concerns about what I still believe is the ultimate obligation of the soul. Or that Dostoevsky who was once put to the firing squad, prior to having his sentence commuted for a Crime of almost nothing, not to proclaim that one’s individual journey must be towards spiritual kindness, without which man cannot and will not exist.The true independence and the only independence there is, comes as Solzhenitsyn knew from the nobility of self and fidelity towards others met on the road of life. Perhaps we can remember the Greek philosopher Epictetus who was born into slavery and was beaten until deformed, but spoke of truth and goodness as well as we have in the past only to be forgotten and ignored in today’s society by politicians and the vast majority of the public, either by omission, non education or simply greed of pursuing failing agendas.Many a time in history many people were treated deplorably and horribly going back as far as I can remember living or reading. Nor growing up, do I recall that the vast majority people were treated fairly. Many kids suffered things you would not know and do not wanna know. For decades there are many people who had little or nothing never took a cent that wasn’t theirs or bullied a soul but came to new lands to build new lives. Think of all the immigrants after WWII who came to new homes to build new futures from a ruined past. This all seems to be forgotten in the rush for today’s socialist agenda. And it seems the last two years have been about bulling on mass for agendas that serve no benefit for the majority, leaving one to conclude service is to a few and not the bulk of humanity. And does one not wonder about the beauty created by artisans through history. If you had the pleasure of seeing the Open air Theatre inspired by a visit to the “teatro di verzura” ( theatre of greenery) at Villa Ginannesschi -Gori in Sienna, Italy; one is inspired to imaginary creations of beauty in design and art, taken form. There are many such wonderments and creations that have stood the test of time, conflict and despair. And they exist around the world in many a land paying tribute to culture and faith of many people throughout the march of time. Now compare to what lack of development and creation occurred under socialism or communism. Today all this wonderment of hundreds of years of history and creation by the hands of many generational artisans seems cast adrift into a meaningless sea of agendas that ignore history and its’ lessons. As we watch it seems that Italy may well elect their Joan of Arc in Georgia Melonia to save them from the beasties in unelected Brussels. As it is a mortal sin to seek democracy in the minds of the Von der Leyens of the world for the EU represents their new temple, the apotheosis of their mad quest to finally make Communism work.The world has embarked on a odyssey not seen in modern times as failing socialism is cast upon the world to serve a demented few in their quest for power to control and remake society as we have known it. While one can ponder their attempt to ignore lessons of failed historical attempts, one also appreciates that failure has its’ price which is always collected. No society has ever escaped the cost. Thus, as events now start to come into view of the public at large, remember that there are no constants. As Voltaire wrote “ the only constant is change”.

end.

Vaccine//Covid issues:

PAUL ALEXANDER…

There is significant heart damage, MYOCARDITIS, from the COVID vaccine & now a game is being played: “Hospital Ad Attempts to Normalize Myocarditis as Common Kids Ailment”

Parents were lied to about low VAX myocarditis risk when CDC and NIH and FDA and Fauci and Walensky knew there was heavy risk and now we are paying a price, but they are trying to normalize it

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 23

▷ LISTEN SAVE

SOURCE:

Hospital Ad Attempts to Normalize Myocarditis as Common Kids Ailment

Before the COVID-19 mRNA became available to children, they rarely developed myocarditis. Most pediatric myocarditis cases came from severe colds and resolved on their own, without intense medical intervention.

A study in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that COVID-19 shots increased myocarditis risk, particularly in young boys and men.

“Based on passive surveillance reporting in the US, the risk of myocarditis after receiving mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines was increased across multiple age and sex strata and was highest after the second vaccination dose in adolescent males and young men,” the study concluded.’

END

Asymptomatic transmission was a lie, major and helped doomed the response; Fauci & Birx lied to Trump & he bought it; I don’t blame him, he trusted their counsel; with fraud PCR test, DOOMED Trump

I wrote this paper: These 2 papers by Cao et al. (NATURE) & Madewell et al. (JAMA) both in 2020, as well as the others I cite, told us all we needed to know ‘asymptomatic spread’ COVID was a lie

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 26

▷ LISTEN SAVE

Asymptomatic infections: how real is/was this in terms of COVID-19?

Author: Dr. Paul E. Alexander, PhD

Open in browser BOOM! CDC & NIH in panic mode! We are winning! Less than 2% eligible people taken updated bi-valent Covid booster shots, 3 weeks into the rollout; claim is lack of public awareness: NO, it is deadly!Dr. Scott Roberts, a Yale Medicine infectious disease specialist, said the relatively low booster uptake was “demoralizing.” “I would expect much higher proportion of Americans to have gotten booster Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 24 ▷ LISTEN SAVE These CDC and NIH corrupted officials say it is because the public is not aware and also feel the pandemic is OVER! Well, it is because the public knows it does not work and it is deadly and that yes, the fraud pandemic is OVER! It will however continue if we did continue the fraud shots that drives selection of more infectious variants.SOURCE:https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/updated-covid-booster-shots-doses-administered-cdc-rcna48960

Open in browser New York: Judge Orders NYPD Union Members Fired Over Vaccine Mandate to be Reinstated; The mandate was also invalid because it issued enforcement beyond “monetary sanctions” prescribed in the lawIn the stunning decision, Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Lyle Frank wrote that the city’s vaccine mandate on the Police Benevolent Association was invalid Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 24 ▷ LISTEN SAVE SOURCE:https://resistthemainstream.org/judge-issues-major-order-on-nypd-union-members-who-were-fired-for-not-complying-with-vaccine-mandate/?utm_source=gab

Open in browser Saskatoon, Canadian woman dies right after COVID booster: Daughter in shock Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 24 ▷ LISTEN SAVE SASKATOON – ‘A Saskatoon woman is in shock after her mother died suddenly in a drug store allegedly within minutes of receiving her COVID-19 booster shot on Sept. 14.On Thursday, Stephanie Foster told SASKTODAY.ca that her mother Carol Pearce was visiting her at her home on the morning of Sept. 14 in Saskatoon until it was time for her appointment.
“Her, myself and her granddaughter were laughing and having a great time,” Foster told SASKTODAY.ca. “Our last time together. My mom left my house looking amazing!”Pearce left for her booster shot and that would be the last time her daughter and granddaughter would see her.“She text me at 12:31 p.m. and said she was waiting her 15 min,” said Foster. “At 12:38 p.m. she was unconscious in [the drug store].”SASKTODAY.ca tracked down a witness to the alleged event and she recounted what she heard and saw. We have agreed to let the witness remain anonymous and call her Heather as she fears losing her job. Heather told SASKTODAY.ca that she was in the store when she heard screaming and crying.“People started screaming,” she said.“People were crying, just about everybody that worked there was crying and freaking and hugging each other and just losing their [sh**],” Heather told SASKTODAY.ca.“They were saying in the store that it was about seven minutes,” after Pearce got the booster shot that she collapsed on the floor, said Heather.’SOURCE:https://www.sasktoday.ca/central/local-news/stoon-woman-dies-allegedly-after-covid-booster-daughter-in-shock-5858942

VACCINE IMPACT/

“Unexplained Deaths” Becoming #1 Cause of Death in 2022 in Canada, Australia, and Europe – Deaths Among Children and Young People Explode in Europe

September 25, 2022 4:13 pm

One of the statistical anomalies we saw in 2021 that the corporate media refused to address, was the fact that more people died “from COVID” in 2021 than in 2020 when the “pandemic” started and reached its height, and after the FDA fast-tracked several new drugs and vaccines to “prevent COVID” or “reduce the chances of death” from COVID-19 at the end of 2020. While the corporate media and the U.S. Government “health” agencies never even considered the possibility that the excess deaths in 2021 could be due to the massive rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines and mandates, those of us in the Alternative Media did. But here we are now in the 9th month of 2022, and all across the world in many countries it is being reported that “unexplained excess deaths” continue to increase, from “all cause mortality” and not from COVID, even though the number of COVID-19 vaccines administered has drastically fallen in 2022 as compared to 2021. Alberta, Canada has recently reported that “Unknown Cases of Death” took over the “top spot” for causes of deaths in 2020, displacing “Dementia” which held the top spot since 2016, and more than doubled in 2021, and is still increasing here in 2022 and is now finally being investigated. The Daily Mail reported last week that “Undertakers are run off their feet with abnormally high numbers of Australians dying.” In Europe, statistics provided by EuroMOMO, a European mortality monitoring organization, show that there have been more excess deaths recorded in 2022 than in 2020 and 2021, and that the greatest increase in deaths has occurred in children and young people. The RAIR Foundation interviewed a Toronto-area casket manufacturer recently who reported that for the first time in his 30 years of manufacturing coffins, they had to order more coffins than usual for children, ordering them in bulk this year, as there has been such a dramatic increase in deaths among children. In the U.S., former Blackrock manager Edward Dowd is one of the few who is examining the Insurance Industry data that show “unexplained excess deaths” are also dramatically increasing in the U.S. here in 2022, and the CDC’s death statistics even confirm much of this.

New COVID Plandemic Documentary Exposes the Truth About Ivermectin and the Scandal That Let Millions of People Die Needlessly

September 24, 2022 2:53 pm

Film producer Mikki Willis self-funded and self-published the most censored and most-viewed documentary in 2020 exposing the fraud concerning the COVID-19 “pandemic” that he and others have correctly relabeled as the “PLANdemic.” Willis is now producing Plandemic III, and he recently released a 13-minute documentary on Ivermectin, the FDA-approved drug with a 30+ year record of safety and efficacy, which many physicians began to use to treat symptomatic COVID patients with, and a near 100% recovery success rate. The corporate media and the government medical tyrants, namely Dr. Anthony Fauci, did their best to discredit this simple drug that was curing everyone, because to admit the truth was to admit that legally they had no basis to issue an emergency use authorization (EUA) for novel new drugs to treat COVID, including the COVID-19 vaccines. And let me just cut off those readers who will want to try and comment on this article, or email me personally, to criticize me for publishing this information saying things like: “COVID is a hoax! How can you treat something that is not real??” I am sorry, but those of you who take this position and constantly criticize me with such comments are very shallow in your thinking. What difference does it make if COVID-19 is a hoax when it comes to the story of Ivermectin and other re-purposed drugs, not to mention those doctors who used non-pharmaceutical treatments such as intravenous Vitamin C therapy, and saw so many people healed? These are real stories of real people, and people really got sick. Whether or not you want to call their illness “COVID-19” makes no difference when you are saving lives. It is just a label, and as we have conclusively demonstrated here at Health Impact News, the COVID-19 label by and large just replaced the “influenza virus” label starting in 2020, as there just were not enough sick people to have BOTH the flu AND COVID-19 making people sick in 2020. Flu cases all but disappeared, but people most certainly were getting sick, mostly older people with co-morbidity factors, very similar to the annual flu season. Many want to claim that COVID-19 was much “worse” than the yearly influenza outbreaks, but there is no way scientifically to attribute that to a new “deadly” virus. The lockdowns and social isolation alone, especially among the elderly, and all the fear caused by broadcasting 24/7 that a deadly new “virus” was plaguing the world, is alone sufficient cause to make 2020 worse than most flu seasons. And as it turned out, repurposed existing drugs to treat upper respiratory infections worked very well, with Ivermectin leading the pack, but doctors were persecuted, censored, and even arrested for practicing good medicine, as the goal all along was to produce a novel new vaccine based on mRNA technology, and there was no way the Globalists were going to allow generic, cheap and effective drugs, get in their way to accomplish their goal of sticking a needle into the arm of every single person living on the planet.

VAERS: 37-Year-Old Oklahoma Man Dead 2 Days After Monkeypox Vaccine – Over 2000 Symptoms Recorded After Vaccine Including Skin Diseases

September 23, 2022 4:02 pm

The latest update of the U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) today (Friday, September 23, 2022) records the death of a 37-year-old Oklahoma man two days after receiving the JYNNEOS/BAVARIAN NORDIC monkeypox vaccine. He was vaccinated on September 7th, and died two days later on September 9th. This is the second recent death made available to the public since the vaccines were made available just 3 months ago (June, 2022). The first death was a Hollywood makeup artist, who died 9 days after receiving a monkeypox vaccine. According to the CDC, as of September 20th, 684,980 doses of the monkeypox vaccine have been administered, the bulk of them being in July and August. With less than .1% of the public now being vaccinated with the monkeypox vaccine, there have been 719 cases filed in VAERS, including 1 death, 1 permanent disability, 3 life threatening events, 56 emergency room visits, and 4 hospitalizations. These 719 cases have recorded 2,212 symptoms, and excluding injection site reactions and mistakes in injecting the vaccine, the most prevalent symptoms seem to be skin conditions, including: Urticaria – very itchy weals (hives); Pruritus – itchy skin; Hyperhidrosis – excessive sweating; Rashes. There were 19 reports of “Loss of consciousness.” The CDC has stated that they want to expand the injection of people with the monkeypox vaccine to children.

Denmark takes the lead, no one under 50 years of age will be offered COVID injection vaccines, no one, Danish Health Authority website updated as of 13 SEP 2022; NO mandate!!!!!

No mandate, just offered, and only 50 years of age and over

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 25

▷ LISTEN SAVE

SOURCE:

https://www.sst.dk/en/English/Corona-eng/Vaccination-against-COVID-19

VACCINE INJURY/

URGENT: “Real-world evidence from over one million COVID-19 vaccinations is consistent with reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus” (Hertel et al.); causes herpes zoster (HZ, synonym: shingles)

a higher incidence of HZ was statistically detectable post-COVID-19 vaccine. Accordingly, the eruption of HZ may be a rare adverse drug reaction to COVID-19 vaccines.

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 23

▷ LISTEN SAVE

SOURCE:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35470920/

end

The latest reports from Slay NewsIsraeli Researchers Raise Alarm on Pfizer Shots, Warn of ‘Severe Side Effects’Israeli researchers have raised the alarm about Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, warning that the shots can cause “severe and long-lasting side effects.”READ MORE

end

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

Kami-Kwase, Debt And Despair

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 01:20 PM

By Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank

The Tory aligned newspaper The Telegraph described the reaction to Friday’s UK budget as ‘hysterical’ and ‘almost deranged’. As cable dived past its former 1985 low, the Chancellor pledged over the weekend that even more tax cuts were on their way. The market responded with the moniker of ‘Kami-Kwase’ and speculation emerged that emergency measures from the BoE may now be inevitable. As Asian investors continued to batter the pound, former MPC member Adam Posen tweeted over the weekend about the potential for BoE FX intervention. Additionally, speculation has been gathering pace as to whether the BoE could step in with an inter-meeting rate hike to stave off the threat of further selling pressure, though there are no guarantees that this would be successful. In the Tory press reports have appeared that PM Truss’s new government may already be facing rebellion with some Tory backbenchers reportedly considering refusing to vote for the government’s finance bill or even submitting letters of no-confidence.

It is not difficult to explain the triggers behind the heavy sell-off in both GBP and gilts. Few would argue with the assertion that Friday’s announcement from UK Chancellor Kwarteng comprised of the biggest fiscal giveaway since the Barber boom budget in 1972. Notwithstanding any comparisons with how that ended in tears, this month’s package is expected to cost GBP161 bln over 5 years and has been followed by an announcement from the UK Debt Management Office that it will lift its gilts issuance target for this year by GBP62.4 bln, even more that the Bloomberg survey median had pointed to. The extra gilts sales will coincide with quantitative tightening from the BoE. The Bank confirmed last week that it wants to reduce the size of its balance sheet by GBP 80 bln over the next 12 months. It was nothing short of indigestion that resulted in investors dumping UK debt, with the 5 yr. gilt yields posting a record 50 bps surge during the day on Friday.

Although the Chancellor, a close friend and ally of PM Truss, stated that the budget is aiming to unleashing supply-side factors, the spending is unashamedly supportive of demand. This puts fiscal policy in direct conflict with the BoE’s monetary targets which are aimed at curtailing demand and forcing down inflation. Consequently, expectation that the Bank will have to tighten even more aggressively had surged even before the pound reached this morning’s sorry levels, with the market already contemplating the possibility of even larger incremental hikes. This is clearly bad news for UK stocks. It is clear that ‘moderate’ rate hikes from the BoE this year have done very little to support the pound against the surging USD. Thus speculation has been sparked that the MPC may be forced into considering huge EM style rate hikes to prevent further sharp losses in the value of GBP. This, however, could test BoE credibility, could pressure demand aggressively and thus could undo the impact of Kwarteng’s tax cuts, leaving only the legacy of higher debt.

Importantly, the UK is burdened with a record current account deficit/GDP ratio. A 2017 statement by former BoE Chief Carney that the UK is reliant on the kindness of strangers is a reference to the fact that GBP is vulnerable to a downward adjustment if foreign investors are reluctant to fund the deficit. UK’s fundamentals are currently characterised by high levels of debt and debt issuance, low growth/recession, high inflation and weak productivity. It is hardly an attractive backdrop for investors, which explains why GBP tanked on Friday and continued its spiral lower overnight before reclaiming the GBP/USD1.06 level this morning.

While UK assets stole the headlines, they were not the only ones out in the cold on Friday. EUR/USD hit a 20-year low. Wall St indices closed in the red, though losses were trimmed late in the session. Crude oil and gold were also weaker.

Week ahead

Whether or not the BoE is forced to announce a potentially large emergency rate hike will draw attention over the coming days. That said, a heavy slate of Fed speakers this week means that market attention will be pulled back to the outlook for US rates. The hawkish nature of Fed commentary, combined with fears of weak growth in China and slower activity levels elsewhere have reinforced the appeal of the safe haven dollar. On Friday the DXY index touched a 20-year intraday high, and EUR/USD dropped below 0.9670 intraday. Further losses for EUR/USD were then notched up overnight. The weakness of the global economy is on full display in IMF data. The FT is reporting that IMF lending to economically troubled countries has hit a record high, to the extent that concerns are rising as to the reach of the lender’s balance sheet. USD strength is a contributing factor in weakness for many economies, insofar as it raises the prices of dollar denominated assets such as energy and increases the costs of funding USD currency debt. Insofar as weakness in the global economy boosts demand for safe havens, there may now be something of a USD supportive feed-back loop in place.

In Europe, the markets will be digesting the implications of yesterday’s Italian elections. A coalition led by the Far-Right Brothers of Italy have won a decisive victory, putting Giorgia Meloni in pole position to become the country’s next PM. Meloni has attempted to soften the position of her party in recent months by emphasising her support for Ukraine and stepping back from anti-EU rhetoric. This position, however, will be closely watched, particularly given the support for the far-right in Sweden’s recent election and given that risk the French voters may also chose to bring the far-right into the mainstream.

Germany’s September IFO business climate survey will be released later this morning followed by the August Chicago Fed activity index. Key data later in the week include US August durable goods, September consumer confidence and a Q2 GDP revision. German September CPI data will be released on Thursday. In the UK, the labour party conference will have plenty to say about the current state of the UK economy.

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

London Banks Prepare For Possible Blackouts

SUNDAY, SEP 25, 2022 – 09:20 AM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Banking and financial firms in London are closely studying and updating contingency electricity supply plans to protect themselves and their customers in case power outages hit the UK this winter.

Some banks are discussing the idea of again encouraging the work-from-home policies from previous Covid lockdowns or using offsite locations, representatives of the trade association UK Finance, coordinating the talks, told Bloomberg.

The UK and the rest of Europe are preparing for potential blackouts this winter, especially if the weather is colder than usual and gas and power shortages strain the grids. Governments in Europe are asking people to conserve energy to avoid rolling outages.

In the City of London, banks are paying closer attention to plans for backup power supply in case of blackouts.

“There is no sense of panic, just everyone is making sure that their ducks are in a row,” Andrew Rogan, director of operational resilience at UK Finance, told Bloomberg in an interview.

This summer, London narrowly avoided a blackout in the eastern part of the city at the end of July. While London and much of the UK were reeling from the hottest day on record in Britain, high power demand and a bottleneck on the grid left parts of East London close to blackout. The UK, however, managed to avoid a blackout in London by buying more electricity from Belgium at a mind-blowing price of $11,812 (£9,724) per megawatt-hour (MWh), which was more than 5,000% higher than the typical price.

Outside the UK, banks across Europe are bracing for energy rationing and possible power outages this winter by getting backup generators ready so that they won’t leave bank transactions and ATMs in the dark if the energy crisis worsens, sources familiar with plans told Reuters earlier this month. As governments in Europe appeal for voluntary gas and electricity conservation and even consider rationing, banks are also bracing for a difficult winter. The banking system is too important for Europe and its economy to be left affected by power outages.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.96449 DOWN 0.0030 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL MIXED

USA/ YEN 144.22 UP 1.075 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.0797 UP 0.0002

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 37.14 PTS OR 1.20%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 78.13 PTS OR 0.44%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.79% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN78.13 PTS OR 0.44%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.14 PTS OR 1.20%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.79%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 722.28 PTS OR 2.66%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1640.40

silver:$18.71

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 113.49 UP 53 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.17% UP 11 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.243% UP 1 AND 3/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.31%// UP 13 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.34 UP 27 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.09% UP 7 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.9623 DOWN .0052 or 120 basis points

USA/Japan: 144.52 UP 1.373 OR YEN DOWN 137 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.0675DOWN .01181 OR 118BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0208 OR 208BASIS pts to 1.3772

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 7.1485

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.1692

TURKISH LIRA: 18.46 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.243

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 14 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 3.831% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.666 UP 5 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 113.95 UP 0.96 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 2.35 PTS OR 0.03%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 56/27 POINTS OR 0.46%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 14.02 PTS OR 0.24%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 75.00OR 0.99%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 140.70PTS OR 0.67%

WTI Oil price 77.42 12: EST

Brent Oil: 84.67 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 58.39 DOWN 0 AND 48/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.093

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.9621 DOWN .0049 OR 49 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.0698 DOWN .0098 or 98 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.60 UP1.465//YEN DOWN 147 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3729 UP 0.01652 (CDN dollar, DOWN 165 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 76.81

Brent OIL: 84.71

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 10 BASIS pts to 3.890%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS PTS to 3.706%

USA dollar index:113.90 up 93 basis pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.44

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 58.39 down 0 AND 48/100 ROUBLES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 329.60 PTS OR 1.11 %

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 57,13 PTS OR 0.51%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 32.26 UP 2.34 PTS (7.82)%

GLD: $151.23 DOWN 1.78 OR 1.11%

SLV/ $16.96 DOWN 0.44 CENTS OR 2.53%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Black’ Monday 2.0

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Well that escalated quickly…

It started in FX…

The Dollar (DXY) surged higher again today, extending Friday’s leap, to its highest since May 2002. The Dollar is up a stunning 4% in the last 5 days – its biggest such move since the peak of the COVID Panic in March 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

On the heels of cable’s collapse overnight to record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

And Yuan weakened near record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin managed a solid day amid all the carnage, holding above $19,000…

Source: Bloomberg

The bond market was a bloodbath…

10Y Gilts exploded a stunning 42bps higher in yield today (up 95bps in 3 days) to its highest since Nov 2008… This is th ebiggest 3 day jump in yields ever for Gilts…

Source: Bloomberg

After the Italian election results, the spread between Italian and German 10Y debt spiked above 240bps today – its highest since the peak of the COVID crisis in 2020 (despite ECB’s grand spread-compression ‘tools’)…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US there was an utter bloodletting in USTs around the European close as yields exploded higher…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y is leading the entire curve higher…

Source: Bloomberg

HY spreads are starting to blow out but IG is underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

LQD – the Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF – collapsed to its lowest since the Great Financial Crisis today (below COVID spike lows in price)…

Source: Bloomberg

And before we leave bond land, we note tat the market’s expectation of The Fed’s ‘Terminal Rate’ spiked up to 4.85% (in May 2023) today before leaking back a little…

Source: Bloomberg

Equity markets were ‘shook’…

European stocks were mixed with Italy managing outlier gains on such a chaotic day while the FTSE was dumped…

Source: Bloomberg

US futures tumbled overnight amid Cable’s collapse but then ramped vertically at the US Cash open. That all faded quickly into the European close and took us to the lows of the day. With an hour to go, bonds and stocks were suddenly panic-bid…but that didn’t last. The Nasdaq outperformed for a change with the machines trying their best to cling to unch until a last second rug-pull. That is the lowest close for the S&P 500 since Dec 2020.

The VIX term structure inverted dramatically today with VIX itself topping 32..

Source: Bloomberg

And if real yields are ‘real’ then the stock market has a long way to go to catch down to reality…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were clobbered…

A strong dollar did commodities no favors with Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index hitting its lowest in 8 months…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold puked back to its lowest since April 2020..

Source: Bloomberg

Oil plunged back below $80 (WTI) – well below Putin invasion levels…

Finally, we note that while there was a lot of talk about record put buying on Friday, as Brent from SpotGamma explains below, while this is correct, it ignores the fact that there is also record put selling…

And in fact the extreme amount of put premium sold (covering hedges?) suggests more of a capitulative bottom – as we saw in March 2020…

But who will come to the rescue this time?

END

I) / EARLY MORNING// TRADING//

Pound Flash Crashes 500 pips To Record Low Amid Global FX Carnage As Things Start Breaking

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 03:24 AM

Just as last week ended, with a relentless meltup in the exponentially rising US dollar, coupled with a collapse in cable, the yen, yuan, euro and so on, not to mention stocks and bonds, so the new week begins only this time the moves are even faster, even more brutal and even more acute, as we approach the breaking point.

Case in point, after starting modestly higher, the meltup in the dollar accelerated, as the Bloomberg dollar index exploded to new all time highs…

… facilitated by a yen whose plunge made a mockery of Thursday’s multi-billion BOJ intervention…

… and is forcing Kuroda to sell even more tens of billions of US Treasurys, to cash into USDs which he will then sell for yen, in the process pushing up 10Y yields even higher, creating a toxic feedback loop of higher yields and an even higher dollar, sending yields higher and the dollar even higher.

But the imminent conclusion of Japan’s MMT experiment notwithstanding, the real highlight of the session so far has been the total collapse in sterling, whose implosion after Friday’s mini budget has accelerated and moments ago cable flash crashed to a new all time low of 1.0350, below the previous record low set in early 1985, and just millimeters away from parity as every single stop was taking out to the downside. .

And since there is nothing at all to contain the now exponential move in the USD, now that the entire world is facing one massive, $20 trillion short squeeze in USD-denominated debt…

… expect an emergency central bank meeting this week where panicking officials do everything they can to contain the dollar and to undo the tremendous damage the Powell Fed has unleashed on the world. Because in the end, it’s always the same.

ii) USA DATA/

“We’re Living In Alice In Wonderland” – Dallas Fed Survey Slumps Amid “Irresponsibility Of Biden Admin”

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 11:00 AM

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey came in well below expectations for September, tumbling back down from -12.9 to -17.2 (against expectations of a modest rebound to -9.0).

Under the hood the picture is even uglier with the six-month-ahead outlook plunging back near post-COVID lows and labor market signals (for jobs and wages) both making new cycle lows…

This is the 5th straight month below zero – signaling contraction – for the headline survey and one glimpse through the respondents’ comments confirms things are not a rosy as the Biden administration – with its ‘barely any inflation’ and ‘best economic growth ever’ narrative…

There is no optimism in the most positive outlook. Interest rate hikes will hit our industry hard. Poor federal polices and spending are just more economic “piling on.”
We have seen a dramatic shift in consumer behavior and it is impacting our volume. Beginning in May, demand for our premium products started to wane as consumers shifted to less-expensive brands. This has accelerated as fuel and other costs have risen.
Sales have started to slow this summer, as has our general outlook on business over the short and long term. Inflation and general uncertainty seem high with customers; as a luxury product [producer], we expect sales to fall as customers cut discretionary spending.
We continue to be very busy; however, it feels like things are starting to slow down some, and I believe we will be slower in the coming months than we have been. It is very hard to tell what inflation with rising interest rates will do for discretionary spending, which drives a lot of the products we make.
We are beginning to see a slowdown in requests for bids on projects.
Our order rate has decreased over the past month. We are only working four days on some of our equipment.
We see the general economic situation worsening, but our customers are still buying because the oil industry is still making money and they see a bright future even though they will not talk about it. Therefore, we have hired a few new people to support the business that is coming over the next couple of months.

But the real punchlines:

We are living in Alice in Wonderland … it just gets worser and worser.
There is a decline in optimism with regard to the business climate as well as our ability to stabilize it. The loss of domestic tranquility, the irresponsibility of governors and the Biden administration, and the loss of common defense and border security will have long-range and far-reaching consequences.

All pretty much guaranteeing a recession is here… and winter is coming.

END

Down $29 Trillion Since November

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 12:20 PM

How much has the Fed’s epic “inflationary is transitory” policy error cost the world? Try $29 trillion and counting.

According to calculations from Bloomberg’s Robert Fullem, the combined market value of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate bond index and the MSCI World index has dropped $29 trillion since its peak in November 2021. The price gauge of the former has dropped to its lowest level since 2011. That is more than twice the level of the world’s international reserves assets, currently at about $12 trillion.

As Fullem notes, the drop in asset prices may not just be about inflation or rising rates but also about the prospect of a perpetual debt spiral to fuel a modicum of growth. Central-bank rate hikes and balance sheet trimming is making future debt more expensive. In some cases, debt costs rise further amid a dearth of foreign buyers as investors stick to local markets and official accounts see reserve balances shrink. In other cases, a high absolute levels of debt and changing political landscape triggers repayment angst. Additionally, “shifting trade balances and protectionism complicates the issue as it threatens to shrink the world’s production capacity and potentially turn Bernanke’s global savings glut into a shortage.”

Of course, the risk for central banks is that, as growth slows – and it will sharply and very soon – they will be forced to capitulate on tightening amid political concerns or domestic outrage, just as we have been warning for the past year. As a result, inflation worries will also resurface. Some of these issues may be impacting the pound and gilts, in unison.

iii) USA economic commentaries

An excellent commentary from Michael Snyder…

(Michael Snyder)

“Have They Gone Completely Mad?” They Know That They Are Killing The Economy, But They Are Doing It Anyway

SATURDAY, SEP 24, 2022 – 09:10 AM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse Blog,

They know exactly what they are doing. The “experts” that run the Federal Reserve know that if they dramatically hike interest rates it will cause countless American workers to lose their jobs and it will absolutely crush the housing market. And even though those two things are already starting to happen, they just announced another massive rate hike. If there was a school for central bankers, one of the very first things that they would teach you is that you should never, ever raise rates as an economy is plunging into a recession. Every Fed official knows what has happened in the past when rates have been hiked at the beginning of an economic slowdown, but they are doing it anyway. To call this “economic malpractice” would be a major understatement, and the American people should be deeply alarmed about what they are doing to us.

After everything that has already happened, it is hard to believe that Fed officials would continue to be so reckless. On Wednesday, it was announced that rates would be raised by another 75 basis points…

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the third straight month as it struggles to bring scorching-hot inflation under control, a move that threatens to slow U.S. economic growth and exacerbate financial pain for millions of households and businesses.

The three-quarter percentage point hikes in June, July and September — the most aggressive series of increases since 1994 — underscore just how serious Fed officials are about tackling the inflation crisis after a string of alarming economic reports. Policymakers voted unanimously to approve the latest super-sized hike.

It was a unanimous vote.

There wasn’t even one dissenting voice.

Have they gone completely mad?

Wall Street certainly did not like this decision. The Dow plunged hundreds of points immediately after it was announced…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 522.45 points, or 1.7%, to close at 30,183.78. The S&P 500 shed 1.71% to 3,789.93, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 1.79% to 11,220.19.

The S&P ended Wednesday’s session down more than 10% in the past month and 21% off its 52-week high. Even before the rate decision, stocks were pricing in an aggressive tightening campaign by the Fed that could tip the economy into a recession.

For ages, the Fed coddled the financial markets, but now it is almost as if they don’t even care anymore.

Personally, I am far more concerned about what will happen to ordinary hard working Americans in the months ahead. Even Jerome Powell is admitting that “an increase in unemployment” is likely because of what the Fed is doing…

“I think there’s a very high likelihood we will have a period of … much lower growth and it could give rise to an increase in unemployment,” he said.

Will that mean a recession?

“No one knows whether that process will lead to a recession or how significant a recession it will be,” Powell said. “I don’t know the odds.”

Actually, we are in a recession right now.

And Powell and his minions just made things a whole lot worse.

Even Democrats understand this. After the rate hike was announced, Senator Elizabeth Warren went on Twitter and warned that “millions of Americans” could soon lose their jobs…

.@federalreserve’s Chair Powell just announced another extreme interest rate hike while forecasting higher unemployment. I’ve been warning that Chair Powell’s Fed would throw millions of Americans out of work — and I fear he’s already on the path to doing so.

This is one of the rare occasions when Elizabeth Warren is right on target.

As I have been documenting on my website for weeks, large numbers of Americans have already been getting laid off.

In fact, things are already so bad that even Facebook is trimming their numbers…

As growth stalls and competition intensifies, Facebook parent Meta has begun quietly cutting staff by reorganizing departments, while giving ‘reorganized’ employees a narrow window to apply for other roles within the company, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing current and former managers familiar with the matter.

By shuffling people around, the company achieves staffing cuts “while forestalling the mass issuance of pink slips.”

So why would the Fed choose to raise rates when layoffs are already beginning to spike?

Higher rates are also having a devastating impact on the housing market.

This week, we learned that sales of existing homes have now fallen for seven months in a row…

Home sales declined for the seventh month in a row in August as higher mortgage rates and stubbornly high prices pushed prospective buyers out of the market.

Sales of existing homes — which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — were down 19.9% from a year ago and down 0.4% from July, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.

Someone should start putting “Jerome Powell did this” stickers on for sale signs all over the nation.

Because this didn’t have to happen.

Now the housing market is already in a “deep recession”, and the Fed just keeps making things even worse…

The prolonged downturn in confidence shows the housing market has been “in a tailspin for the whole of this year,” according to Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson.

“Activity tracks mortgage applications with a lag, and the early September numbers are grim, even before the full hit from the rebound in mortgage rates in recent weeks works through,” Shepherdson said in a note to clients on Monday.

“In short, the housing market is in a deep recession, which is already hammering homebuilders and will soon depress housing-related retail sales,” he added.

The Fed seems determined to kill the economy.

But why?

Why would they do this?

One analyst that was just quoted by Fox Business is warning that “times are going to get tougher from here”…

“With the new rate projections, the Fed is engineering a hard landing — a soft landing is almost out of the question,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist of Principal Global Investors. “Powell’s admission that there will be below-trend growth for a period should be translated as central bank speak for ‘recession.’ Times are going to get tougher from here.”

Yes, times are definitely going to get tougher from here.

In fact, we are eventually headed for a meltdown of epic proportions.

But instead of working to prevent a historic crisis, the Federal Reserve is actually encouraging one.

The American people deserve some answers, because there is something about all of this that really stinks.

end

III B USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//ORANGE JUICE/CITRUS

Hurricane coming to Western Florida

(zerohedge)

DeSantis Declares “State Of Emergency,” Activates National Guard Ahead Of Hurricane Ian

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 – 03:00 PM

Hurricane Ian, the fifth hurricane of the Atlantic season, underwent “rapid intensification” in the Caribbean Sea on Monday, with sustained winds of 85 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Ian is a Category 1 storm about 240 miles southeast of Cuba’s western tip. The storm’s track and the threat of further intensification are so concerning that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a “state of emergency” for the entire state.

DeSantis activated 5,000 Florida National Guard members and requested 2,000 from surrounding states.

DeSantis said Ian is a menacing hurricane that is 500 miles wide. He said, “Floridians up and down the Gulf Coast should feel the impacts” of the powerful storm.

“This is a really, really big hurricane at this point,” the governor said.

AccuWeather warned Ian could strengthen to a Category 4 storm, sustaining winds between 130-156 mph, as it nears Florida’s west coast.

Weather models show Ian could make landfall between Florida Panhandle and west-central Florida mid/late week.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor ordered mandatory evacuations for parts of her region:

“We are asking everyone to go ahead and make those plans to leave from the Zone A, which basically is all the waterfront. We have about 126 miles of waterfront just in our city alone … You don’t have to evacuate far. You just need to get away from the water,” Castor told CNN.

Castor’s primary concern is a 10-15 feet storm surge that could result in inland flooding.

Meanwhile, St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch warned: “This could be the storm that we’ve hoped would never come to our shores.”

end

SWAMP STORIES

KING REPORT

The King Report September 26, 2022 Issue 6851

Independent View of the News

UK’s Biggest Tax Cuts Since 1972 Trigger Crash in Pound, BondsPackage costing £161 billion is aimed at stimulating economyEconomist say measures will add to inflation and debtChancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng announced a series of tax cuts and regulatory reforms that will cost £161 billion over the next five years. That fanned concerns about inflation, already near a 40-year high, and about a spiraling government debt burden…
https://www.yahoo.com/now/uk-sets-biggest-tax-cuts-091456787.html

Chancellor slashes £45bn off burden in biggest cuts since 1972 putting hundreds of pounds in pockets of Brits – and £10k for the richest – but skeptical markets sell off Pound and drive up debt costs – The 45p top rate of tax is being abolished and the 1p cut to the basic rate is brought forward to next April; Stamp duty is being scrapped for properties worth under £250,000 and £425,000 for first-time buyers…  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11243217/Kwasi-Kwarteng-slashes-45bn-tax-burden-despite-borrowing-fears.html

Britain outlines tax incentives for new investment zones
“On purchases of land and buildings for commercial or new residential development, there will be no stamp duty to pay whatsoever,” Kwarteng told lawmakers in a fiscal statement on Friday.
    “On newly-occupied business premises, there will be no business rates to pay whatsoever. And if a business hires a new employee in the tax site, then on the first 50,000 pounds ($55,800) they earn, the employer will pay no National Insurance whatsoever.”…
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-outlines-tax-incentives-new-investment-zones-2022-09-23/

Stock Selloff Turns Ugly as UK Plan Rattles Globe
The UK’s plan to lift the economy fueled concerns about heightened inflation that could lead to tighter monetary policy, boosting the odds of a recession…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-fall-yields-surge-003107721.html

The pound fell 3% versus the dollar on Friday, the largest decline since March 2020.

@Schuldensuehner: UK’s biggest tax cuts since 1972 trigger crash in bonds. 5y GILT yields jump >50bps, biggest daily jump on record. https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1573274977222234113

The huge increase in debt and market leverage over the past two decades has created a situation where governments fear any economic slowdown could produce untold crises. Governments and central bankers got away with stimulus schemes for decades because inflation was benign. Now, the inflation genie is out of the bottle; so, ill-conceived stimulus schemes are counterproductive. It’s the 70s again!

@zerohedge: Credit Suisse hits all time low <5CHF, market cap is just $11BN.

@RaoulGMI: The speed at which FX and rates markets are breaking is breathtaking. This is the ADXY (Asian currency Index). The is NO liquidity in dollars, anywhere. NONE. The US is 25% of global GDP, 100% of global GDP in debt and the US$ is 85% of all trade…BAD.
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1573335686152962048

WEF: In 2021, global debt reached a record $303 trillion, according to the Institute of International Finance, a global financial industry association… In 2021, the countries with the highest global debt levels compared to GDP were Japan (257%), Sudan (210%), Greece (207%), Eritrea (175%) and Cape Verde (161%), according to data published by Visual Capitalist…
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/what-is-global-debt-why-high/

Emerging markets drive global debt to record $303 trillion – IIF
The global debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 351% in 2021 from an all-time high of more than 360% in 2020…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/emerging-markets-drive-global-debt-record-303-trillion-iif-2022-02-23/

The NY Fed, July 5, 2022: Approximately half of all cross-border loans, international debt securities, and trade invoices are denominated in U.S. dollars, while roughly 40 percent of SWIFT messages and 60 percent of global foreign exchange reserves are in dollars…
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/07/the-u-s-dollars-global-roles-revisiting-where-things-stand/

Most global debt is in dollars. Since the dollar is 85% of world trade, multi-national companies are massively short the dollar versus projected exports to the US. When you borrow in dollars, you are short the dollar in a global sense. Ergo, the known universe is massively short the dollar. When recession beckons – and the Fed is contracting credit growth – companies must cover some part of their dollar forward hedges, and debt becomes more onerous to service. The higher the dollar goes, the more onerous debt service becomes for foreign governments, companies, and individuals.

Steel makers fear deepening crisis from energy crunch as output halted
Spiraling energy costs have forced steel makers to cut output across Europe, threatening mass plant shutdowns some warn could be permanent in a sector that employs more than 300,000 and contributes tens of billions of euros to the region’s economy. Even with four wind turbines and over 50,000 solar panels at its site in eastern Belgium, stainless steel maker Aperam has been forced to halt production as surging energy prices bite… https://t.co/vehaBIZPT2

Goldman Slashes S&P 500 Target Citing Higher Fed Rates Path … to 3600 from 4300…
“Our economists now forecast the FOMC will raise the policy rate by 75 basis points in November, 50 basis point in December, and 25 basis points in February for a peak funds rate of 4.5%-4.75%.”..
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-slashes-p-500-target-044427342.html

S&P Global US Mfg PMI 51.8, 51 expected, 51.5 prior; Services PMI 49.2, 45.5 expected, 43.7 prior; Composite PMI 49.3, 46.1 expected, 44.6 prior

US bonds (USZs) tumbled with global bonds after the UK announced its stimulus scheme. USZs sank to 126 29/32 at 7:04 ET, four minutes after the US bond market opened. They then soared to 128 25/32 at 9:20 ET on defensive asset allocation buying and flight from gilts. The December Gilt contract hit a low of 98.68 (-3.22) at 5:40 ET. It bounced to 100.11 at 6:16 ET; but gilts quickly rolled over and then traded sideways. GZs did not rally like USZs did; GZs sank into the European close and hit 98.75 at 11:45 ET.

After USZs double topped (128 25/32) at 10:27 ET, they retreated. After Europe closed, USZs zoomed higher, hitting the daily high of 129 12/32 at 12:54 ET. They rolled over and then went inert thereafter. As we mentioned earlier this week, bonds have traded wildly until they go inert near midday in the US.

ESZs traded modestly higher during early Asian trading but turned negative after 22:00 ET. After the UK stimulus announcement, ESZs and stocks commenced an intractable decline. The usual rally for the NYSE open occurred but it ended at 9:20 ET. ESZs and stocks made a low at 12:31 ET. A belated Noon Balloon developed; it ended at 13:03 ET with a 23-handle ESZ rally. ESZs rolled over until 13:40 ET. It was time to cover shorts and get trading long for Powell’s 14:00 ET address.

The rally for Powell was modest and it ended at 14:06 ET. ESZs and stocks then sank to new lows. After the VIX Fix, a rally developed; it ended within 5 minutes. ESZs and stocks sank to new lows. When the final hour arrived, a desperate soul manipulated ESZs 26 handles higher in only 14 minutes.

After a modest retreat, ESZs were pushed higher again. ESZs were 48 handles higher from the low by 15:45 ET. After a modest respite, ESZs moved three more handles higher at the close.

The Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker cogently shows why Fed officials en masse have turned hawkish.

https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

Beijing Cancels Over 6,000 Domestic, International Flights; Suspends Rail Services. Reason Not
Known Yet… (Coup rumors everywhere) https://www.india.com/news/world/xi-jinping-house-arrest-latest-news-today-23-september-2022-beijing-cancels-over-6000-domestic-international-flights-suspends-rail-services-china-military-coup-5650425/

Positive aspects of previous session
Last-hour ESZ and stock rallies on desperate need to markup badly hemorrhaging positions
US bonds rallied on recession angst and the exodus from gilts

Negative aspects of previous session
Gilts and the pound got hammered; the euro and yen declined; the dollar soared
Stocks tumbled globally; the S&P 500 Index got within 11 points of its intraday June low
The DJTA tumbled again

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Will Fed officials walk back Powell’s dovish MBS QT remark?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3689.37
Previous session High/Low: 3727.14; 3647.47

Disney fans complain Orlando resort is filled with broken-down, faulty rides and broken robot characters as CEO Bob Chapek is condemned for inflating prices… lack of general maintenance… Prices for a one-day ticket are as much as $159 per guest…
    In February, the entertainment conglomerate raised ticket prices with a four-day standard ticket costing a minimum of $447.70, according to Disney World blog Inside the Magic. The cheapest four-day ticket used to be $434.83.  A four-day Park Hopper Ticket – which lets park goers travel from one section of the amusement park empire to another – costs a minimum of $540.89, up from $525.35…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11213233/Disney-fans-complain-Orlando-resort-filled-broken-faulty-rides-broken-robot-characters.html

Mises Institute: The Fed Is Finally Seeing the Magnitude of the Mess It Created
The Fed nonetheless continues to take only the most tepid steps when it comes to reducing the size of the Fed’s portfolio. Such a move would directly reduce the money supply by reversing QE, and it would also reduce asset prices by producing a small deluge of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities flowing back into the market… It’s been nearly four months since the Fed announced plans to reduce the portfolio, yet the actual reduction continues to be miniscule… in Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, when asked about selling off the Fed’s mortgage-backed securities, Powell responded “It’s something I think we will turn to, but that time — the time for turning to it has not come … It’s not close.”
    Even now, after immense and rapid price inflation over the past two years, the Fed is still too afraid of fragility in the housing market to put much of its $2 trillion MBS portfolio back into the private sector…
    Yet, the Fed’s real incompetence is already behind us. That came over the past decade when the Fed absolutely refused to end its quantitative easing efforts even as the economy was clearly in an accelerating expansion…  The sheer level of ineptitude would be shocking if it were not so common for central bankers… Thanks to Powell and Yellen and Bernanke and Greenspan, we’re living with the consequences of the Greenspan Put, followed by a decade of QE, followed by the “panic and print money” mania of the past two years. It’s great that Powell is finally figuring out what the real world looks like. Unfortunately he’s years behind.  https://mises.org/wire/fed-finally-seeing-magnitude-mess-it-created

EU Commission President Threatens Italy on Eve of Election, Says Brussels Has ‘Tools’ if Wrong Parties Win – “The prospect of a charismatic nationalist taking power with almost no government experience has investors and officials on edge. (Sound familiar?)…
    Von Der Leyen was making a clear reference to the European Commission’s ability to cut funding to member states it views as violating “rule of law,”…
    Meloni’s political beliefs means the EU may respond with extreme sanctions against Italy if her party comes to power… Italy is already becoming increasingly skeptical of Brussels, according to polling. If the EU were to cut funding to Italy, this may raise tensions in an already divided Europe and potentially spark a backlash among the Italian public… “What is this, a threat? This is shameful arrogance,” tweeted Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’s far-right League party…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/eu-commission-president-threatens-italy-eve-election-says-brussels-has-tools-if-wrong

The EU Establishment is aghast that a nationalist woman was elected PM of Italy. If the EU punishes Italy for electing Giorgia Meloni and her rightist bloc, Italy could throw the EU into a messy crisis.
PS – A glass ceiling has been shattered in Italy. Why aren’t liberals and feminists celebrating?

Violent Iranian protests have reportedly spread to 140+ cities and all 31 provinces of Iran. The US regime media is ignoring or underplaying the uprising in Iran because it harms Team Obama-Biden’s lust for a deal with Iran and denigrates past entreaties to Iran.

@IAPolls2022: ABC/WP POLL: Republicans hold 21 point lead on generic ballot in Battleground Districts* (RV) Republicans 55% (+21), Democrats 34% *Competitive districts rated by 538 (neither solid R or Solid D) 908 RV | 09/18-21 |  https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1226a1MidtermPolitics.pdf

@jacobkschneider: From the ABC poll: “There’s no sign [the Roe v. Wade decision is] impacting propensity to vote in comparison with other issues: four rank higher in importance and two of them — the economy overall and inflation specifically — work strongly in the GOP’s favor.”

@RNCResearch: GOV. CHRISTIE: “84% of the voters say the economy is their top issue; only 62% say abortion…what our poll is showing is that the pro-life people are more motivated by the abortion issue to vote in these midterms than the pro-choice people are.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1574043638014812164

Today – Manic short-covering rallies for bonds and stocks can occur at any moment. However, bonds and stocks are in perilous technical states. If the S&P 500 Index low from June (3636.87 intraday) is breached, the index should quickly test 3500. Next support is 3200-3234, the March lows. There is massive support at 3000. It is foolhardy to predict a crash; however, the conditions for a plunge exist.

Remember: Ugly Thursday-Friday sequences tend to produce ugly Mondays for stocks!

ESZs are -6.50; USZs are -15/32; the pound sank to 1.0766 but is 1.0807 at 20:00 ET.

Expected economic data: Aug Chicago Fed National Activity Index .23; Sept Dallas Fed Mfg Activity -8.0; Boston Fed official Collins 10 ET, Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 12 ET, Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 16 ET

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4039; 100-day MA: 3991; 150-day MA: 4120; 200-day MA: 4239
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,163; 100-day MA: 31,948 150-day MA: 33,659; 200-day MA: 33,371

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4739.37 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4180.10 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3921.58 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3733.18 triggers a buy signal

TUCKER CARLSON: The point of the Ukraine war is regime change in Russia
Back in April, according to an account in Foreign Policy magazine, negotiators from the governments of Russia and Ukraine met secretly and “appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement to end the war.”
    The terms of the deal were simple. Russia would withdraw its troops from Ukraine. Ukraine would promise not to join NATO, so each side would get the thing that it wants most simple and effective, and it might have worked.  But the Biden administration adamantly opposed this settlement. Biden’s advisers didn’t just want the Russians to leave Ukraine… Biden’s advisers wanted a total regime change war against Russia… and they were willing to fight to the last Ukrainian to get it.
    On April 9 of this year, the White House dispatched its hapless cutout, then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, to Kyiv, according to Ukrainian news media, Johnson communicated two messages to the Zelenskyy government, “The first is that Putin is a war criminal. He should be pressured, not negotiated with and the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, the West is not.”   In other words, who cares what the Ukrainians want. America and the U.K. demand total war with Russia, regime change war with Russia and of course, the Ukrainians caught in the middle had no choice but to concede…
    This week, President Zelenskyy of Ukraine gave an interview to the left-wing newspaper, The Guardian and in it, he casually called for the United States to nuke Vladimir Putin… Parse that, and we’re quoting, “as soon as Russia even thinks of carrying out nuclear strikes” – meaning before Russia actually launches missiles – “the U.S. needs to launch nuclear weapons against Russia.” In other words, we need to launch nuclear weapons now… an attack that would without question result in the immediate destruction of New York, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, the deaths of tens of millions of Americans. That’s what he just said. Sane people do not talk this way, ever. If there was a moment for the Biden administration to shut this whole thing down and force negotiated peace, which they could do in an instant, that moment is right now before huge numbers of people die, but that’s not what the Biden administration is doing. They are moving in the other direction at high speed and doing all they can to bring the West to the brink of destruction…
    So, a corrupt Eastern European authoritarian leader in a t-shirt is lecturing us about the community of nations and telling us this is really about the punishment that Ukraine demands. It’s not about self-defense or getting their territory back. It’s about regime change. Specifically, they’re demanding a nuclear strike from us. How do we get involved in this anyway? But almost nobody in Washington is standing back to ask that question. They’re full speed ahead on this. This is insane, but they’re all for it…
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-point-ukraine-war-regime-change-russia

Gen. Jack Keane says Putin ‘on his way to losing’ the war in Ukraine
Putin promises nuclear weapons threat ‘not a bluff’ before United Nations General Assembly
Putin has got them involved in this. So, I think it’s likely this will blow back and even if he’s able to assemble hundreds of thousands of troops, here’s what’s going to show up: people who are physically unfit, medically unfit and obviously, people who are psychologically and emotionally not ready to fight…
    They’re going to join a unit that’s on the battlefield that’s poorly led, poorly trained, and has not been successful at conducting the operations that they’re pursuing. So, yes, Putin has got a problem here. He is losing the war now. Doesn’t mean he will eventually lose it, but he certainly is on his way to that…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/gen-jack-keane-putin-way-losing-war-ukraine

Creepy Joe Biden on Friday: ‘She was 12, I was 30’: Biden leaves viewers stunned in teachers speech
“You gotta say hi to me,” Biden said mid-speech at the National Education Association headquarters in DC. “We go back a long way. She was 12, I was 30. But anyway, this woman helped me get an awful lot done.” The White House did not immediately respond to The Post’s request for clarification on what the president meant.  Biden’s historical habit of touching and smelling women and girls in public — often yielding on-camera grimaces from recipients — earned him the Republican nickname “Creepy Joe,”…
https://nypost.com/2022/09/23/biden-leaves-viewers-stunned-in-teachers-speech-she-was-12-i-was-30/

@bennyjohnson: Tucker on Joe Biden’s “She was 12, I was 30” comment: “What was Joe Biden talking about? Who was he talking about?… Sounds like a late-life confession. We don’t know actually. For once, The White House is not clarifying, they’re just walking away slowly.” https://t.co/yqz6ZRf1Vm

@MonicaCrowley: As dementia progresses, patients lose more of their filter and tend to blurt out the truth. Biden: “She was 12, I was 30.” (Can you image the MSM and Dem outrage if DJT said this?)

@FreeBeacon: Biden: “There’s a lot more Republicans out there taking credit for the new bridges and the bldhyindclapding than actually voted for it…”  https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1573363848261910530

@RNCResearch: Joe Biden leaves for yet another weekend vacation in Delaware.  Biden has spent 242 days — 40% of his presidency — on vacation.

@RNCResearch: Karine Jean-Pierre: “What may happen in this hurricane season” will be “helped” by Biden’s “historic investment to fight climate change. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1573393866610409475

Because the regime media allows and enables blatant lying and risible gaslighting by Team Biden, The Big Guy’s forces keep issues bigger and more outrageous lies.

Congress secures first Hunter Biden whistleblowers as memos unmask lucrative gas deals with China – Internal company memos show Hunter Biden effort to score American LNG ports, gas deals, and drilling ventures for Beijing.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/bidens-family-sought-lucrative-deals-china-fossil-fuels-he-now

FBI raids home of Catholic pro-life speaker, author with guns drawn as his terrified kids watch
The warrant charged Mark with violating the Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act… Ryan-Marie stated this charge comes from an incident that had already been thrown out of the District Court in Philadelphia but was somehow picked up by Merrick Garland’s Department of Justice…
    Garland’s Department of Justice and the FBI have committed dozens of SWAT team raids that have been characterized as a political “weaponization” of the federal agencies against pro-lifers, Trump supporters, conservative Christians, and medical freedom advocates…
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/fbi-raids-home-of-catholic-pro-life-speaker-author-with-guns-drawn-as-his-terrified-kids-watch/

GOP PA Gov candidate Doug Mastriano excoriated Biden, the FBI, and the BoJ for the FBI Swat Team raid on an innocent Pennsylvania family that included children. Statement at link:
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1573757904972398594/photo/1

@latimes: FBI agents drilled and pried their way into 1,400 safe-deposit boxes. 18 months later, newly unsealed court documents show that the FBI and U.S. attorney’s office in Los Angeles got their warrant for that raid by misleading the judge who approved it…
https://news.yahoo.com/fbi-misled-judge-signed-warrant-120002250.html

Postal Service conducted surveillance on protesters with pro-gun, anti-Biden agendas, report
Investigation based on redacted documents obtained by the Cato Institute think tank.
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/postal-service-conducted-surveillance-protesters-pro-gun-anti-biden

What aren’t more Americans voicing opprobrium at Team Biden’s police state tactics?

Ex-liberal icon @ggreenwald: At its core, Democratic politics is about criminalizing opposition to their party and ideology.  Dissenting ideas are “disinformation” and must be censored by Big Tech. Trump voters are inherently criminal (“insurrectionists”) and should be imprisoned.

@RealMacReport: Gavin Newsom on Gov. DeSantis busing illegal migrants to Martha’s Vineyard: “It’s clear that DeSantis broke the law. Question is which law did he break.“ (Gov Hair Gel incriminates himself!)  https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1573781838492991489

California just legalized ‘human composting.’ Not everyone is happy.  (Not a parody!)
Assembly Bill 351, signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday, will allow residents to choose human composting, or natural organic reduction (NOR), after death starting in 2027…
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/california-legalizes-human-composting-17374470.php

Right to Life of Michigan says volunteer was shot while canvassing
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2022/09/24/right-to-life-of-michigan-volunteer-shot-canvassing/69516089007/?s=02

Three Conversation with Donald Trump by Maggie Haberman (DJT-hating NYT reporter) – The former president tried to sell his preferred version of himself but said much more than he intended.  “Can you believe these are my customers?” Donald Trump once asked while surveying the crowd in the Taj Mahal casino’s poker room. “Look at those losers,” he said…
    Trump also complained to me about senators successfully practicing this type of power politics against him, as Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz had when they persuaded Trump not to back a challenge to a colleague, Nebraska’s Ben Sasse; Trump gave a surprise endorsement to Sasse, who then, after winning reelection, voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment. “Like a schmuck, I went along with it,” Trump said…
    Reflecting on the meaning of having been president of the United States, his first impulse was not to mention public service, or what he felt he’d accomplished, only that it appeared to be a vehicle for fame, and that many experiences were only worth having if someone else envied them…
    I asked why he had given Jared Kushner expansive power. “I didn’t,” Trump said, although he had done exactly that. When I pressed, Trump said, “Look, my daughter has a great relationship with him and that’s very important.”…
    Then he turned to the two aides he had sitting in on our interview, gestured toward me with his hand, and said, ‘I love being with her, she’s like my psychiatrist.’… (Multiple disqualifying statements!)
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/donald-trump-maggie-haberman-mar-a-lago/671510/?s=02

@emeriticus: Not only did Trump meet with Haberman several times — he went begging to National Review for good coverage, the conservative magazine most vehemently opposed to the America First mandate given to Trump by supporters. There is something pathological about this.  Why did Trump repeatedly meet with New York Times journalist and CNN shill Maggie Haberman to seek her approval and why did he beg the absolute worst conservative magazine that hates him and his entire movement to like him? Trump has a desire to be liked by his enemies, which is why he can’t crush them.

DeSantis: “Republicans have to understand, don’t try and get these people (MSM) to like you.”
https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1574037235154157568

“The problem is not people being uneducated. The problem is that people are educated just enough to believe what they have been taught, and not educated enough to question anything from what they have been taught.” —Professor Richard Feynman

Greg Hunter INTERVIEWING MARTIN ARMSTRONG

Banking Crisis Will Start in Europe – Martin Armstrong

Banking Crisis Will Start in Europe – Martin Armstrong

By Greg Hunter On September 24, 2022 In Political Analysis34 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says nothing is going to get better by the end of 2022, and he is still forecasting “chaos” coming in 2023. Armstrong says the plunge in the stock market last week is all because of “extreme uncertainty.” Armstrong predicted a stock market crash two months ago and contends, “It’s not over.”

Europe is in big financial trouble with Russian natural gas turned off as a retaliation from the sanctions. Armstrong explains, “In Europe, I believe they are actually deliberately doing this, and this is Klaus Schwab’s ‘Great Reset.’ They know they have a serious problem. They lowered rates to below 0% in 2014. They just started raising interest rates. Meanwhile, you ordered all the pension funds throughout Europe to have more than 70% in government bonds. Then they took it negative. All the pension funds are insolvent. Europe is fiscal mismanagement on a grand scale. There is no way it can sustain itself, and we are looking at Europe breaking apart.”

So, could Europe suck the rest of the world down the tubes? Armstrong says, “Oh, absolutely. Europe is the problem. . . . The crisis in banking will start in Europe. . . . The debt is collapsing. They have no way to sustain themselves. The debt market over there is undermining the stability of all the banks. You have to understand that reserves are tied to government debt, and this is the perfect storm. Yes, the (U.S.) stock market will go down short term. We are not facing a 1929 event or a 90% fall here. . . . Europeans, probably by January of 2023, as this crisis in Ukraine escalates, anybody with half a brain is going to take whatever money they have and get it over here.”

So, where is smart money going to go? Armstrong says, “Stocks are like gold, it is on the same side of the table and is opposite government debt. People are not going to be buying government debt. They are going to be looking at anything in the private sector. . . . People are buying whatever they can to get off the grid.”

Armstrong says governments are borrowing and spend huge amounts of money. The Fed will keep raising interest rates to fight inflation, but Armstrong says, “Raising interest rates will only make things worse. We have supply shortages, and raising rates will not fill the gaps.”

Armstrong has never been more positive on buying gold. Why? Armstrong explains, “We are looking at a sovereign debt default. This is what’s going on. This is why Biden will spend whatever he wants because he knows he doesn’t have to pay it back. Eventually, this is what’s going to happen. This is Schwab’s agenda.”

Armstrong has predicted “2023 will be the year from Hell.” Armstrong says, “Civil unrest will only get worse” this year, and he is predicting we will have full blown war next year. Armstrong contends Democrats are desperate and will do things like granting illegal aliens citizenship so they can vote in the mid-term elections.

In closing, Armstrong says, “Something is going to spark a collapse in government again. It’s going to be something, I think, in Europe where they do something drastic because they have no other choice. . . . They need war as the excuse for the defaults of all the government debt.”

There is much more in the nearly 59-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, cycle expert and author of the upcoming new book “The Plot to Seize Russia, Manufacturing World War III” for 9.24.22.

(https://usawatchdog.com/banking-crisis-will-start-in-europe-martin-armstrong/)

After the Interview:

There is some free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com.

To get a copy of Armstrong’s 5th edition of “Manipulating the World Economy,” click here.

To get a copy of “The Cycle of War and the Coronavirus: The New Threat to World Peace & Battle of the Billionaires,” click here.

There are hard cover and Kindle editions for both books.

Keep checking for Armstrong’s upcoming book “The Plot to Seize Russia, Manufacturing World War III.” This book will be given away if you sign up for the conference below.

For tickets to Martin Armstrong’s “2022 World Economic Conference” in Orlando, FL, November 11, 12, and 13, click here.

See you on TOMORROW

HARVEY