SEPT 22/GOLD UP $5.20 TO $1672.95//SILVER IS UP 10 CENTS TO $1960//PLATINUM IS DOWN $11.00 TO $907.40//PALLADIUM IS UP $47.90 TO $2171.65//JAPAN’S CENTRAL BANK INTERVENES TO STOP THE BLEEDING FROM A FALLING YEN//FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS THERE HAVE BEEN ZERO SALES ON THE 10 YR JAPANESE BOND//FRANCE NATIONALIZES A STRUGGLING NUCLEAR UTILITY//SWITZERLAND AND THE BANK OF ENGLAND RAISE RATES BY 75 BASIS POINTS//RUSSIA RESTRICTS YOUNG MEN FROM LEAVING THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF CALLUP OF RESERVISTS//UKRAINE THREATENS A JAIL SENTENCE OF 5 YEARS IF THEY VOTE IN THE REFERENDUM//RUSSIA WARNS THAT THEY MAY USE LIMITED NUCLEAR WEAPONS IF THEY DO NOT GET THEIR WAY//IRAN HAS THEIR 5TH DAY IN A ROW OF PROTESTS AS FEMALE CITIZENS ARE ANGRY AT PUNISHMENT FOR NOT WEARING A HIJAB//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

September 22, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · 27 Comments

GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP $5.20 to $1672.95

SILVER PRICE CLOSE: UP 10 cents to $19.60

Access prices: closes

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1671.50

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 19.62

Bitcoin morning price: $19,100 down $34

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,484 UP $350

Platinum price closing DOWN $2.75 AT $918.40

Palladium price; closing DOWN $23.55 at $2123.75

END

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,664.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/21/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 09/23/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

323 C HSBC 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 34
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9
661 C JP MORGAN 510 456
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
709 C BARCLAYS 243
737 C ADVANTAGE 6 4
880 H CITIGROUP 299
905 C ADM 30

TOTAL: 798 798
MONTH TO DATE: 8,573

________________________________________________________________

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT CONTRACT:

798 NOTICES FOR 79,800 OZ //2.4821 TONNES

total notices so far: 8573 contracts for 857,300 oz (26.665 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 107 NOTICES FILED FOR 535,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 6595 : for 32,975,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $5.20

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //// A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.10

AT THE SLV// ://GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 0.691 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 481.424 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 403 CONTRACTS TO 131.704 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE FAIR LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.33 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.33) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 98 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE A STRONG SILVER SHORT COVERING. THE SPECS ARE FLEEING AS FAST AS THEIR LITTLE FEET WILL CARRY THEM.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 95,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(//CONSIDERABLE SPEC LIQUIDATION/)

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: -49

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 12,205 contracts: 61.045 million oz OR 4.069 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (814 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 61.045 MILLION OZ

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 61.045 MILLION OZ///

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 403 DESPITE OUR $0.33 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 452 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS A// CONSIDERABLE NET SPEC SHORT COVERINGS /// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST. OF 3.855 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 95,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 49 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 0.245MILLION OZ AS..THE SPECS STILL ARE BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE.

WE HAD 107 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 535,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3228 CONTRACTS TO 466,167 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED – 133 CONTRACTS.

THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $4.70//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD MAJOR SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND //CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 8.401 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 126,900 OZ //NEW STANDING 24.951 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $4.70 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 703 OI CONTRACTS 2.186 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3931 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 466,167

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 836 CONTRACTS WITH 3228 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3931 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 703 CONTRACTS OR 2.186 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3931) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3228): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 703 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 8.409 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTROUS QUEUE JUMP OF 136,900 oz. 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//// //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

39,290 CONTRACTS OR 3,929,000 OZ OR 122.21 TONNES 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2619 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 122.21 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 122.21/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.43% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 122.21 TONNES (SLIGHTLY FALLING THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT., FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER,FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 403 CONTRACT OI TO 131,704 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 452 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 452 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 452 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 354 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 452 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 49 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.245 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.33

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.27 PTS OR 0.27% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 296.67 PTS OR 1.61% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 159.30 PTS OR 0.58% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.55% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.0732//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.0709// /Oil DOWN TO 84.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 90.88 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3228 CONTRACTS TO 466,167 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $4.70 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (3931 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3931 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 DEC :3931 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3931 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED SIZED TOTAL OF 836 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3931 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 3095 CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD $4.70. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE SPECULATORS WHO HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY SHORT TRYING DESPERATELY TO COVER WHILE THE BANKERS WHO ARE LONG CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR PURCHASES. THIS WILL NOT END WELL FOR OUR SPECS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING SEPT (28.898),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 28.898 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $4.70) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 703 CONTRACTS // COMMERCIAL LONGS ADDED TO THE POSITIONS, AND SPECULATOR SHORTS TRIED TO COVER ON THEIR POSITIONS WITH MINIMAL SUCCESS////// WE HAVE REGISTERED A SMALL GAIN OF 836 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (28.898 TONNES)…

WE HAD 133 CONTRACTS ADDED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 703 CONTRACTS OR 70,300 OZ OR 2.186 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 149,852/// poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday 244,043/ fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR SEPT ’22 COMEX GOLD //SEPT 22

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	114,232.595 oz BRINKS DELAWARE HSBC
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	798 notice(s) 79,800 OZ 2.4821 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	718 contracts 71800 oz 2.2332 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	8573 notices 857,300 OZ 26.665 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

total dealer deposit 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits nil oz

3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks 106,034.000 oz( 3298 kilobars)

ii) Our of Delaware 482.265 oz (15 kilobars)

iii) Out of HSBC: 7716.240 oz (240 kilobars)

total: 114,232.505 oz

total in tonnes: 3.55 tonnes

Adjustments: 1

JPM/ customer to dealer: 76,370.776 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.

For the front month of SEPT we have an oi of 1516 contracts having LOST 401 contracts .

We had1670 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we gained a whopping 1269 contracts or an additional 126,900 oz

will stand for gold in this very non active delivery month of September.

October LOST ONLY 898 contracts LOWERING TO 42,048. Oct is generally a poor active delivery month. It WILL change!! (Look for a very unusually large Oct. delivery month.)

November GAINED 37 contracts to stand at 340

December lost 2201 contracts DOWN to 376,423

We had 798 notice(s) filed today for 79,800 oz FOR THE SEPT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 510 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 798 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 456 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2022. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8573) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (SEPT 1516 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 798 x 100 oz per contract equals 929,100 OZ OR 28.898 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of SEPT.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (8573) x 100 oz+ (1591) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (798} x 100 oz} which equals 929,100 oz standing OR 28.898 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 28.898 TONNES (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR A SEPT ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD. THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX. THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 2,250,165.318 oz 76.21 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 26,833,781.698 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,987,212.627 OZ (403.95 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,846,569.063 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,737,047. OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 333.96 tonnes//rapidly declining

END

SILVER/COMEX/SEPT 22

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,241,773.970 oz Brinks CNT Loomis HSBC Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	107 CONTRACT(S) 535,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	36 contracts (180,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	6595 contracts 32,975,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

total deposit: nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 164.074 million oz/316.337million =51.84% of comex

Comex withdrawals: 5

i) out of HSBC 1006.35 oz

ii) Out of Brinks: 2904.550 oz

iii)Out of CNT 583,979.400 oz

iv)Out of Loomis: 600,048.570 oz

v) Out of Manfra: 53,835.100 o

total: 1,241,773.970 oz

adjustments: 3// DEALER to customer

i) Brinks 338,371.00

ii) 19,143.325 oz

iii) Manfra 311,918.690 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 43.511 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 316.337 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI: 143 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 7 CONTRACTS. WE HAD

26 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 19 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL

95,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT.

WE WILL GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER STANDING EACH TRADING DAY UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH

(CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING BY OUR BANKERS SEARCHING FOR SILVER METAL)

OCTOBER LOST 23 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 509 CONTACTS.

NOVEMBER GAINED 7 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 106

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 570 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 116,324

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 26 for 130,000 oz

Comex volumes:37,859// est. volume today// poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 72,880 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6595 x 5,000 oz = 32,975,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(143) and the number of notices served upon today 107 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT./2022 contract month: 6,595 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT (143) – number of notices served upon today (105) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates 33,155,000 oz. .

We have an inventory of 44.240 million oz of registered silver at the comex so Sept delivery of 33.155 MILLION OZ represents 74.94% of that category of silver.

If we add August’s final delivery (to Sept) for silver at 5.51 million oz, we have a total of 38.665 million oz delivered upon with a REGISTERED INVENTORY of 44.20 million oz or 87.47% of that category of silver.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:50,941// est. volume today// poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 43,847contracts ( poor)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.85 : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73ONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.91 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $12.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.85: 2 BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 AND ANOTHER 1.51 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 966.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.05 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES//

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.08 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

AUGUST 31.WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.37 TONNES

AUGUST 30.WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.61 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $12.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT: 987.66

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.83 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 952.16 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN $.31 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1.04 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSIT OF 553,000 OZ AND 464,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 468.571 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 138,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.557 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 830,000 OZINTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.419 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 533,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.589 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.567 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.140 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 465.573 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RETS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.765 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.135 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.160 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.900 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.066 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.490 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.798 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.684 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 481.424 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Fed Policy In A Nutshell: Live In Hope; Die In Despair

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 10:59 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

During his post- FOMC meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, “Hope for the best; plan for the worst.”

I think he meant, “Live in hope; die in despair.”

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates another 75 basis points to 3.25% in another attempt to cool “transitory” inflation. The move was widely anticipated after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hotter than expected in August.

The last time interest rates were this high was January 2008.

You remember what happened in 2008, right?

In its official statement, the FOMC said the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing inflation back to the mythical 2% target, and that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”

Unfortunately, by the Fed’s own admission, that’s going to take a while. Meanwhile, get ready to feel some pain.

“I wish there were a painless way” to get inflation down, Powell said during his post-meeting press conference, “but there isn’t.”

The central bank now projects its favorite inflation measure (core personal consumption expenditure index) to hit 2.3% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. CPI won’t likely fall to the 2% range until 2025. Powell specifically talked about rising prices for shelter, saying, “We’re looking for it to come down, but it’s not exactly clear when that will happen. It may take some time. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.”

And in fact, projecting inflation to fall to 2% in the next couple of years seems like a plot from a fantasy novel. As aggressive as the Fed moves may seem, they remain totally inadequate to rein in inflation galloping along at an 8.3% clip.

Officials now project interest rates will hit 4.4% by the end of the year and top out at 4.6% in 2023. That’s up from a projected 3.8% peak at the last FOMC meeting. But in order to tackle inflation, the Fed needs to push rates above the CPI. I don’t need tell you that 4.6 is below 8.3. That’s why Peter Schiff insists the Fed won’t bend this inflation curve.

As long as we have interest rates below the inflation rate, even if they’re higher, they’re still negative, and negative interest rates put upward pressure on inflation. You can’t fight inflation with negative interest rates. It’s like saying, ‘I’m going to fight this fire by pouring gasoline on it. It’s just that I’m only going to pour a little bit of gasoline, not as much gasoline as I was pouring on before.’”

On top of that, Fed rate hikes alone won’t tame inflation.

A paper published by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank even conceded this point, arguing that the central bank can’t slay inflation unless the US government gets its spending under control. In a nutshell, the authors argue that the Fed can’t control inflation alone. US government fiscal policy contributes to inflationary pressure and makes it impossible for the Fed to do its job.

Trend inflation is fully controlled by the monetary authority only when public debt can be successfully stabilized by credible future fiscal plans. When the fiscal authority is not perceived as fully responsible for covering the existing fiscal imbalances, the private sector expects that inflation will rise to ensure sustainability of national debt. As a result, a large fiscal imbalance combined with a weakening fiscal credibility may lead trend inflation to drift away from the long-run target chosen by the monetary authority.”

That seems unlikely.

But while the Fed’s tight monetary policy is unlikely to end inflation, it will continue to drive the economy into the ground. As Skanda Amarnath, executive director at Employ America told Reuters, “Everyone should assume the Fed is committed to engineering a recession.”

The Fed even concedes this fact – thus Powell’s warning about pain. But don’t worry. The Fed chair said once the central bank gets inflation under control, “things will start to feel better for people.”

So, look forward to brighter days — in 2025.

Maybe.

In fact, the central bank seems to be wildly underestimating the pain in store for the economy.

The Fed projects GDP year-end growth will come in at 0.2% and then rise to 1.2% in 2023. But we’ve already had back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth. That used to be the definition of a recession until the spinmeisters at the White House updated the definition. And things aren’t looking much better for Q3. The Atlanta Fed recently downgraded its third-quarter growth projection to 0.3%.

Most people seem resigned to the fact that a recession is in the cards. But they insist it will be short and shallow. This is almost certainly more wishful thinking. Why should anybody believe it will be short and shallow?

As Schiff pointed out, the bust needs to be proportional to the boom.

We’ve never had a boom this big. We’ve never had interest rates this low for this long. We’ve never had an economy more screwed up than the one we have right now. We’ve never had bigger asset bubbles, bigger debt bubbles, more misallocations of capital and resources. So, we have more mistakes that we need to fix now than ever before. So, how are we going to do that with a short shallow recession? We’re not. It’s going to be a massive recession.”

The question is how long will the Fed keep making a show of fighting inflation? At what point will the central bank pivot back to blowing air into the bubble economy? Schiff said the Fed has “no stomach” for the kind of economic chaos coming down the pike. “And that’s why the Fed is going to pivot.”

That leads to other questions. Will the Fed pivot as soon as it can no longer plausibly deny the imploding economy? Or will it keep pushing the envelope until it rips and then pivot? Schiff said, either way, the end result is the same.

As long as it pivots at all, that means inflation is going to run out of control.”

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: COFFEE

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.0732

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.0709

SHANGHAI CLOSED: DOWN 8.27 PTS OR 0.27%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 296.67 PTS OR 1.61%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 159.30 PTS OR 0.58%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 110.66/Euro RISES TO 0.98612

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.234/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 141.72/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.877%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.09%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.000%…** DANGEROUS

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.43//

3j Gold at $1672.80 silver at: 19.62 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 64/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 59.05//

3m oil into the 84 dollar handle for WTI and 90 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 141.72DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this .9816– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9680well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.559 UP 5 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.505 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//(USA 30 YR INVERTED TO THE USA 10)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,38…GETTTING DANGEROUS

Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

‘Economic Discontent’ Is On The Rise As Central-Bank-Nado Strikes Markets Overnight

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 08:13 AM

A herd of wild central banks stormed across markets overnight – following The Fed’s uber-hawkish 75bps hike and dot-plot projections – sparking chaotic swings in everything from Yen to Gilts. Everyone hiked or held rates… except Turkey which cut!

Japan

BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged, as expected, with rates at -0.10% and QQE with yield curve control maintained to target the 10yr JGB yield at around 0% through a unanimous decision.
Japanese Government and BoJ intervened in FX markets for the first time since 1998, according to the Japanese Vice Finance Minister – the government and the BoJ stepped into the market to buy JPY for USD.

Switzerland

SNB hikes its Policy Rate by 75bps to 0.5% as expected; willing to be active in FX market as necessary; further rate hikes cannot be ruled out; no CHF classification in release.
SNB Chair Jordan says SNB ready to intervene to prevent excessive weakening or strengthening of the CHF; recent appreciation has helped dampen inflation. If there were to be an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, we would purchase foreign currency. If the Swiss franc were to weaken, however, we would consider selling foreign currency.

Norway

Norges hikes its Key Policy Rate by 50bps as expected to 2.25%; policy rate will most likely be raised further in November; This may suggest a more gradual approach to policy rate setting ahead.
Norges Bank Governor Bache says the central bank is likely to hike by 25bps in November.

The Bank of England hiked rates a softer-than-markets-expected 50bps (in 5-3-1 50-75-25bps split decision) while warning about the potential inflationary impact of PM Truss’ new fiscal plans.
MPC also confirmed the start of QT – active-selling of gilts will begin in October.

Europe

While no decisions from the ECB today, it is worth noting that ECB’s Schnabel says we must increase interest rates further, “I assume that the ECB Governing Council will hike interest rates further at its next meeting. At the moment, I cannot say how large this interest rate hike will be and up to what level we will”. In the short-term inflation could increase further, despite rate hikes. We do not currently see any indications of a wage-price spiral; wage growth has increased, but is still moderate

Brazil

Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic Rate at 13.75% as expected via unanimous decision, while it will assess if the prospect of holding the Selic Rate long enough will ensure inflation convergence and stated that future policy steps could be adjusted. Furthermore, it will remain vigilant and will not hesitate to resume the cycle of rate adjustments if disinflation does not happen as expected.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised the base rate by 75bps to 3.50%, as expected.

Rest of Asia

Bank of Taiwan, Bank of Indonesia, and Bank of Philippines all raised rates in-line with expectations.

Turkey

Turkey’s central bank delivered another shock cut to interest rates, despite inflation running at a 24-year high and with the lira trading at a record low.
The Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Sahap Kavcioglu lowered the benchmark to 12% from 13% on Thursday. In a statement accompanying its decision, the central bank said there was a “loss of momentum in economic activity.”

Amid all that chaos, here are some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed as of 7:54 a.m. New York time
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.1%
The MSCI World index fell 0.2%

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
The euro rose 0.3% to $0.9864
The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.1304
The Japanese yen rose 1.7% to 141.59 per dollar

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.55%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 1.89%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 11 basis points to 3.42%

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $84.22 a barrel
Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,678.50 an ounce

TOP OVERNIGHT NEWS (via Bloomberg):

Powell Signals Recession May Be the Price for Crushing Inflation
Stock Bulls Reluctantly Fold on the Fed’s Grim Economic Message
Traders Ramp Up BOE, ECB Rate Hike Bets After Hawkish Fed
Gold Risks Collapse Into Bear Market as Fed Targets Inflation
Bond Market Pushes Recession Trades as Fed Hawks Take Flight
Goldman Lifts Forecasts for Fed Hikes on Powell’s Hawkish Signal
Japan Intervenes in Market After BOJ Defiance Sends Yen Sliding
BOJ Curve-Control Policy Bolstered as US Yields Fall After Fed
Deutsche Bank CFO Says on Track for Top End of Revenue Guidance
Credit Suisse Mulls Plan to Resurrect ‘Bad Bank,’ FT Reports
Wall Street CEOs Grilled on China, Russia Ties by US Lawmakers
Citi Mulls N.J., Connecticut Facilities to Ease NYC Commutes
Porsche’s Gray Market Trading Points to Bumper Debut Next Week
Bankman-Fried’s FTX Is in Talks to Raise $1 Billion, Says CNBC
Dimon Calls Out Crypto as ‘Decentralized Ponzi Schemes’
Bitcoin Pares Drop Sparked by Fed’s Warning of Rate-Hike Pain
Intel Executive With Industry’s Toughest Job Plots Comeback
Kittyhawk, Larry Page’s Flying-Car Company, Will Shut Down
Ukraine Seizes Dozens of Russian Tanks Left by Fleeing Forces
Suns Owner Sarver Set to Sell Teams Amid Harassment Scandal
Trump-Picked World Bank Boss Faces Calls for Ouster Over Climate
House Votes to Raise Bar for Challenging Presidential Elections

US EVENT CALENDAR:

08:30: Sept. Continuing Claims, est. 1.42m, prior 1.4m
08:30: 2Q Current Account Balance, est. -$260b, prior -$291.4b
08:30: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 217,000, prior 213,000
10:00: Aug. Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior -0.4%
11:00: Sept. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 5, prior 3

Rabobank’s Michael Every concludes the overnight wrap:

Anxiety about the geopolitical risks overshadowed markets’ concerns about soaring inflation yesterday as Putin ‘doubled down’. In a television address to the Russian nation, he declared a ‘partial’ mobilization of 300,000 reservists. However, markets’ worries about the Russian President’s latest escalation pales in comparison to the anxiety amongst those whose lives it affects directly and dramatically. As the pundits pointed out, the official text of the decree does not specify an end date, nor an actual number of reservists to be called up. In fact, it’s a broad and open-ended statement that leaves any decision on quantities to top brass and regional military leadership. So the 300,000 is, well, just a number.

Google trends reveals that Russians flocked to the search engine to search for ways to avoid being called on in this act of mobilization. Fleeing the country was clearly the top tip, as evidenced by a surge in search queries that included any combination of airline tickets, visa, and specific destinations. Even the desperate question “where to flee to?” was increasingly being Googled, after the Moscow Times reported that “nearly all flights to available foreign destinations were sold out” almost immediately after the announcement. When the option of leaving the country seemed exhausted, people turned to more drastic ways to avoid being sent to the battlefield. “searches for ‘how to break an arm’ surged in russia today. anything to get out of combat…,” summarized Eurasia’s Ian Bremmer. That reaction illustrates why the Kremlin had resisted drawing upon such mobilization so far.

Some –including German Chancellor Scholz– are calling Putin’s move an act of desperation as he realizes that “Russia cannot win this criminal war.” However, even if this is true, it’s hardly a positive for risk sentiment. After all, Putin has also swept the rug from under those who were starting to believe that Russia was looking for an exit after China and India also increased pressure on Putin to de-escalate – at least, that was how many had interpreted Putin’s comments after meeting with Xi and Modi. And even if these new forces are only to be deployed in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to prevent Ukraine from taking back these territories, it also raises the risk that the West gets dragged into the fight, as Russia would see an attack on these regions as an attack on its own sovereignty – especially after these regions ‘vote’ for annexation in the referendums that will be held this weekend.

Of course we could consider all this sabre-rattling and shift in focus from ‘fighting Ukraine’ towards the ‘fight against the West’ as specifically aimed at a domestic audience. The ‘partial’ mobilization decision has to be explained after all. But the sabre-rattling (with Sergei Markov, one of Putin’s ‘close advisors’ again warning on BBC radio yesterday that Russia is willing to use its nuclear arsenal against Western countries if it feels threatened) is also a signal that Putin is willing to play a game of attrition in which he hopes to drive a wedge into the Western coalition countries.

Playing into political disruption is the key weapon, as economic discontent –a result of the energy crisis– is on the rise. Giorgia Meloni, leading a coalition of radical right and more moderate factions, may soon take over the helm from Italian PM Draghi. In Sweden the far-right Sweden Democrats came in second in this month’s election and yesterday 5,000 protesters took to the streets in Slovakia to express anger about the economic impact of the war. Governments are taking measures to soften the cost of living crisis, but the medium-term consequences of these interventions on inflation could well be ‘higher for longer’.

Given the abovementioned backdrop the market’s reaction yesterday was actually rather modest. 10y yields in Europe fell around 6 basis points across the board, but partly recovered from that in the afternoon session. European stocks even managed to return into positive territory following a weak opening. This turn of sentiment was supported by a fall in energy commodity prices. In early trading the nearest futures for both Brent and gasoil (diesel) were both up around 3%, the Dutch TTF 1m forward gas jumped 5% higher, but all these gains evaporated and turned into small losses by the end of the day. The only constant in yesterday’s trading session was the stronger dollar, with the DXY dollar index up 0.6%, reaching its highest level in 10 years’ time. Concerns about the possibility of a 100bp hike by the Fed overshadowed those early on the day geopolitical sentiments. 2y UST yields pierced the 4% threshold for the first time since 2007.

At the end of the day, the Fed stuck with 75bp instead of surprising with a 100bp hike. Yet, there were some hawkish take-aways from yesterday’s FOMC meeting and this is also leading to further weakening of non-USD currencies in the aftermath of that. First of all, Powell reiterated the message that the Fed is strongly committed to reduce inflation back to target, and that the FOMC is purposefully moving its policy rates to a level where they are sufficiently restrictive.

Secondly, FOMC members indicated that they now expect the federal funds rate at 4.4% by year-end and that they see a terminal rate of 4.6% next year. That is a significant upward shift in the dot plot. The median member expects another 125bp in hikes this year, i.e., in line with our expectations of 75bp in November and 50 in December, but a large group in the Committee expects to hike by only 100bp. Moreover, though, the 4.6% terminal rate that the FOMC anticipates falls short of our prediction of 5%. As our US strategist explains, the main reason why our rates call remains above consensus and above the Fed’s own expectations is that we believe that a wage-price spiral has started in the US that will keep inflation persistent. The FOMC may not fully acknowledge this yet, but they have made it very clear that they will prioritize inflation and Powell is increasingly preparing the market for a not-so-soft economic landing. That intricate balance between higher for longer inflation and Fed rates combined with more economic pain ahead is reflected in a further flattening of the yield curve; 30y yields shed 7bp as a result.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Japan intervened in FX markets on Super Central Bank Thursday – Newsquawk US Market Open

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 06:26 AM

Equities in Europe trade mostly lower but off worst levels; US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark
USD/JPY slumped as Japan announced FX market intervention via USD-selling and JPY-buying; DXY retreated from a 111.81 peak as a result
Debt futures have witnessed some choppy price action at the sidelines, with the longer end of the curve outperforming
Russian Deputy Chair of Security Council Medvedev said Russian weapons including nuclear can be used to defend territories in Russia
Looking ahead, BoE, CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE’s Haskel, Tenreyro & ECB’s Schnabel

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

22nd September 2022

LOOKING AHEAD

BoE, CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE’s Haskel, Tenreyro & ECB’s Schnabel
Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

CENTRAL BANKS

BOJ/OFFICIALS

Japanese Government and BoJ intervened in FX markets, according to the Japanese Vice Finance Minister – the government and the BoJ stepped into the market to buy JPY for USD.
Japan Finance Minister Suzuki is concerned about excessive FX moves, that cannot be overlooked; will continue to closely watch FX markets, will take necessary steps against excessive moves; did not comment on size of intervention.
BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged, as expected, with rates at -0.10% and QQE with yield curve control maintained to target the 10yr JGB yield at around 0% through a unanimous decision. BoJ left its forward guidance unchanged in which it expects short- and long-term rates to remain at present or lower levels and maintained guidance on policy bias that it will take additional easing steps without hesitation as needed with an eye on the pandemic’s impact on the economy, while it extended the pandemic relief program.
BoJ Governor Kuroda does not see the need to change forward guidance for about 2-3 years. Kuroda said will patiently continue powerful easing, will not hesitate to ease policy further if needed; closely watching financial and FX moves. JPY weakening is one-sided, nots there are speculative moves behind weakening JPY. Click here for full details.

SNB

SNB hikes its Policy Rate by 75bps to 0.5% as expected; willing to be active in FX market as necessary; further rate hikes cannot be ruled out; no CHF classification in release. Click here for full details.
SNB Chair Jordan says SNB ready to intervene to prevent excessive weakening or strengthening of the CHF; recent appreciation has helped dampen inflation. If there were to be an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, we would purchase foreign currency. If the Swiss franc were to weaken, however, we would consider selling foreign currency. Click here for full details.
SNB Chair Jordan reiterates that the SNB can do interim rate decisions if needed.

NORGES

Norges hikes its Key Policy Rate by 50bps as expected to 2.25%; policy rate will most likely be raised further in November; This may suggest a more gradual approach to policy rate setting ahead. Click here for full details.
Norges Bank Governor Bache says the central bank is likely to hike by 25bps in November.

ECB

ECB’s Schnabel says we must increase interest rates further, “I assume that the ECB Governing Council will hike interest rates further at its next meeting. At the moment, I cannot say how large this interest rate hike will be and up to what level we will”. In the short-term inflation could increase further, despite rate hikes. We do not currently see any indications of a wage-price spiral; wage growth has increased, but is still moderate, via t-online.
ECB spokesperson says the central bank did not intervene in FX markets, via Reuters

OTHER

Riksbank‘s Ohlsson says we do not have a target for the SEK.
China’s PBoC says it will further improve macroprudential policy framework
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9798 vs exp. 6.9946 (prev. 6.9536).
Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic Rate at 13.75% as expected via unanimous decision, while it will assess if the prospect of holding the Selic Rate long enough will ensure inflation convergence and stated that future policy steps could be adjusted. Furthermore, it will remain vigilant and will not hesitate to resume the cycle of rate adjustments if disinflation does not happen as expected.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised the base rate by 75bps to 3.50%, as expected.
Bank of Taiwan, Bank of Indonesia, and Bank of Philippines all raised rates in-line with expectations.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Russian Deputy Chair of Security Council Medvedev says Russian weapons including nuclear can be used to defend territories in Russia, via Reuters.
Ukrainian President Zelensky laid out five conditions for peace with Russia and said that they are non-negotiable, while conditions included punishment for Russian aggression, restoration of Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity, as well as security guarantees. Zelensky also stated that Ukrainian neutrality is out of the question and he ruled out that a settlement can happen on a different basis than the Ukrainian peace formula, according to Reuters.

OTHER

The Iraqi Foreign Minister says “There is a discussion that the next session between Riyadh and Tehran will be at a level other than foreign ministers”, via Al Jazeera.
Iranian Chief of Staff says “We will conduct a naval exercise in the Northern Ocean with Russia, China, and possibly Pakistan, Oman and other countries”, according to Al Jazeera

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

Equities in Europe trade mostly lower but off worst levels after an initial downbeat open following the fallout from the FOMC.
Sectors are mostly negative but do not portray as much of a defensive bias as they did at the cash open, but banks outperform.
US equity futures have been similarly clambering off lows into positive territory with little in the way of drivers to explain the trimming of losses
Click here for more detail.

FX

USD/JPY slumped as Japan announced FX market intervention via USD-selling and JPY-buying.
DXY initially extended on gains to a current peak of 111.81 before recoiling as Japan intervened to stem the sliding JPY
CHF buckles after markets were disappointed by the 75bps SNB hike as market expectations skewed towards 100bps.
Other G10s are all off worst levels vs the Greenback.
Click here for more detail.
Click here for OpEx for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Debt futures have witnessed some choppy price action at the sidelines, with the longer end of the curve outperforming on spread positioning and perhaps some relief buying.
Bunds topped out at 142.02 vs 140.58 at the other end of the scale having closed at 141.20 on Wednesday, Gilts at 104.28 from a 103.40 low.
T-note is midway between 114-00/113-18+ overnight extremes.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent front-month futures have been climbing as a result of the pullback in the Dollar which was triggered by Japan intervening in the FX market.
Spot gold also moved on the aforementioned Dollar action – with the yellow metal rising from a USD 1,655/oz intraday base towards closer to its 10 DMA (USD 1,685.87/oz).
Base metals, a similar story, LME copper feels a boost from the Buck but fails to hold into gains north of USD 7,750/t.
US Senator Manchin released the energy permitting bill to speed up energy projects which is expected to be included in the funding bill and his staff said the bill had the votes to pass the Senate, according to Reuters.
Click here for more detail.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin reclaimed the USD 19,000 level as the Dollar eased, whilst Ethereum extends gains towards 1,300.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

UK PM Truss wants to resolve the Northern Ireland Protocol dispute by the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, according to FT.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mostly negative in the aftermath of the FOMC where the Fed hiked rates by 75bps and raised their dot plot projections, with the terminal rate forecast increased to 4.6% from 3.8%
ASX 200 was closed today due to the National Day of Mourning for the Queen.
Nikkei 225 briefly fell below 27,000 although bounced off its lows as the BoJ stuck to its dovish policy.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured with notable losses in casino stocks and underperformance in the tech sector amid the higher rate environment as the HKMA also raised rates by 75bps in lockstep with the Fed.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

US Senators asked for a review of Apple’s (AAPL) plan to use Chinese chips, according to Washington Post.
Japanese PM Kishida said they will further ease border restrictions from October, according to TBS.
Hong Kong Gov’t expects, next week, to announce the removal of COVID hotel quarantine policy for overseas arrivals, via HKO1 citing sources.

NOTABLE APAC DATA

New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug) -2447M (Prev. -1092.0M, Rev. -1406M)
New Zealand Exports (Aug) 5.48B (Prev. 6.68B, Rev. 6.35B); Imports (Aug) 7.93B (Prev. 7.77B, Rev. 7.76B)

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

EARLY LAST NIGHT:

Last night the Yen disintegrated trading well above the 145 yen to dollar level. The Bank of Japan then decided to intervene

where it is now trading 141.72 to the dollar

(zerohedge)

Yen Disintegrates Below 145 After BOJ Decision As Traders Call Japan’s Intervention Bluff

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 02:58 AM

After much bluster and jawboning, the BOJ’s repeated verbal intervention attempts to keep the USDJPY below 145 proved to be nothing but one giant bluff, at least for now.

Asian currencies – especially those like China and Japan refuse to tighten in sympathy – were already under huge pressure on Thursday after the Federal Reserve continued to tighten U.S. monetary policy when the Bank of Japan decided to counter the global tightening trend again, and stuck to its ultraloose stance.

The Japanese yen initially toyed with, then decisively weakened past 145 to the dollar, a fresh 24-year low, after the BOJ said it would maintain its monetary policy under which it is buying unlimited quantities of Japanese government bonds necessary to control the yield curve. And since the BOJ is caught in an impossible dilemma, where it can’t maintain Yield Curve Control (i.e., unlimited bond buying and thus currency printing) and a stable currency, Kuroda – whose shock and awe QE legacy is on the line, hyperinflation be damned – has again picked to sacrifice the yen which is in free fall this morning, with some speculating it could plummet as much as 147 today unless the BOJ steps in with intervention.

The BOJ announced its decision hours after the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday raised its key policy rate 75 basis points, or three-quarters of a percentage point, to a range of 3.0% to 3.25%, tightening for the third straight meeting, following increases June and July.

The decisions reiterated the widening gap between the Japanese central bank’s dovish policy stance and the Fed’s hawkish stance, stimulating investors to buy the dollars and sell the yen.

“We are ready to take action anytime,” said Masato Kanda, Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, after the yen crossed 145. “We cannot tolerate excess volatility and disorderly currency moves.” But his words this time did nothing to contain the slide, as the is sinking at an accelerating pace, much to the shock of Japanese pensioners who are not only seeing their purchasing power evaporate but are assured of importing massive inflation in the months ahead.

What happens next? According to Jun Kato, chief market analyst at Shinkin Asset Management in Tokyo, the dollar/yen could fall as low as 147 later on Thursday though the pace of yen selling is expected to slow from current levels.

The probability isn’t “zero” for USD/JPY to try its upside at the 1998 high of 147.66 later today, Kato said. “But players largely seem to have digested all the news of Fed and BOJ, and a Swiss rate hike is already factored in to limit much more upside for dollar/yen.”

Commenting on the repeated – and increasingly laughable – warnings from Japan’s top currency official Masato Kanda’s warnings which are aimed at lowering USD/JPY levels, Kato said that actual intervention is unlikely and Kanda’s comments are “nothing more than a gesture without real ammunition in store, as physical intervention can only adjust positioning and pace and will not alter a trend.” And once transitory adjustments are made, he expects the USDJPY to continue rising given fundamentals of higher US yields as the Fed makes its hawkish stance clear, adding that if the US yield curve flattens further and concerns grow more strongly about aggressive rate hikes now hurting future growth, dollar/yen may see a peak between 145-150.

Sony Financial Group agreed that there is a possibility of further rate checks by the Bank of Japan, though intervention is unrealistic: “The BOJ has conducted a rate check at 145 yen, so we are aware of that level as an upside potential,” said Juntaro Morimoto, a Tokyo-based currency analyst with Sony Financial. However, since “the gap in monetary policy between the US and Japan is widening, it is only a matter of time before it breaks through 145 yen again.” Ultimately, Morimoto sees probability of Yen at 150 against the dollar a little too far on limited room for US interest rates to rise.

Perhaps that’s true, but at this moment, the BOJ – whose bluff to intervene in the FX market has been called and the central bank has folded like a rank amateur- has effectively given the market a carte blanche to destroy the yen, especially since all those rate “checks” we read so much about proved to be just typical Japanese hot air.

The Japanese central bank conducted a foreign exchange “check” on Sept. 14, asking market participants about exchange rates. This is believed to be a move to prepare for foreign exchange intervention aimed at easing the excessive depreciation of the yen.

However, many analysts believe intervention will be next to impossible. In the case of intervention where the yen is bought and dollars sold, the maximum amount that can be used depends on the dollar cash balance in a special account for foreign exchange funds, which is under the control of the Ministry of Finance.

“As the maximum amount of foreign exchange intervention is known in advance, and [if] the BOJ decides to intervene by selling dollars and buying yen, it may inadvertently trigger speculative selling of the yen,” Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, pointed out in a note.

“If the Japanese government and the BOJ are to work together to prevent the yen from depreciating, it is likely that a revision of the ultraloose monetary policy will come first, rather than currency intervention,” he added. However, in that case, “a full explanation will be required as to how the price target should be considered before the revision is made.”

There is another reason why Kuroda is in deep fecal matter as Japan’s currency collapse accelerates: as Bloomberg notes, the Bank of Japan once again is the world’s largest central bank in GDP terms. The growing risks to financial stability will put further pressure on the bank to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy. As shown in the chart below, that mantle of the largest central-bank balance sheet was held by the Swiss National Bank since around 2007, but in recent months the SNB has been selling assets to support the franc in a bid to limit inflation.

The size of the BoJ’s balance sheet, at 135% of GDP (the real-time figure will be higher due to recent BoJ asset buying) highlights the scale of the mounting problem given the risks to financial stability.

As Bloomberg’s Simon White notes, the SNB, who are likely to raise rates later this morning, were pretty quick to change track when global inflation became a problem. They are likely to have a small sense of relief that, while their balance sheet is still large, it is now falling, and is no longer the world’s largest.

END

LATER IN THE EVENING LAST NIGHT:

After a couple of weeks the Yen will resume its downwardly direction

(zerohedge)

Yentervention! Japan “Boldly” Enters FX Market, Sends USDJPY Tumbling… But Not For Long

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 04:36 AM

With the yen plummeting earlier today, after the BOJ decided to keep its YCC and abandon the yen to its collapsing fate, we said that the BOJ better intervene soon or all hell would break loose:

Two hours later, the BOJ has done just that, and after warning earlier in the session of “stealth intervention”, it decided to finally put money where its endlessly big mouth is with the first Japanese FX intervention in 24 years that was anything but stealth:

The Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market to prop up the yen, the country’s top currency official Masato Kanda says.
Kanda, vice finance minister for international affairs, spoke to reporters after the yen climbed sharply against the dollar, erasing most of its decline following the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain ultra-easy monetary policy
Kanda says Japan took “bold action” in markets

Here a quick primer: in Japan, FX interventions are carried out by the Bank of Japan on behalf of the Ministry of Finance. The last time Japan intervened to sell dollars and buy yen in June 1998 at the height of the Asian currency crisis, while the last time officials stepped into markets to sell yen to weaken the currency was in November 2011.

In kneejerk response, the Yen predictably soared, jumping as much as 1.1% as the USDJPY collapsed by a whopping 300 pips from 145.50 to 142.50!

It now appears that the new market level which the BOJ is comfortable with is around 143. However, now that the BOJ has fired its yentervention bazooka, with fundamentals screaming for a far weaker yen for years to come, especially with Kuroda stating that there will be no change in policy for at least two years…

*BOJ’S KURODA: NO NEED TO CHANGE GUIDANCE FOR 2 OR 3 YEARS

… as the BOJ has no choice but to prop up the YCC while ignoring the collapse in the yen, it is only a matter of time before this BOJ/MOF intervention fizzles, as have all previous attempts to contain the USDJPY through direct currency intervention…

… and the yen resumes its march toward 150, then 200 and so on, on its irreversible way to the scrapheap of MMT-destroyed currencies.

In kneejerk response, we said that while the BOJ panic may prop up the JPY for a few weeks, only a coordinated intervention has any chance of a sustained response.

And sure enough, the Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. agrees with us, writing that Japan’s intervention to prop up the yen will have more impact if the move is coordinated with other central banks. “The move may still wow markets because they are doing it to buy JPY for the first time in more than 20 years,” says Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC, adding that “based on historical observation of BOJ intervention, JPY typically moves between 3% and 5% in the direction of intervention and the impact is more pronounced within the first 48 hours.”

But as we also said, “while intervention may slow the pace of JPY depreciation, the move alone is not likely to alter the underlying trend unless USD, UST yields turn lower or the BOJ changes/tweaks its monetary policy. Instead, “at best, their action can help to slow the pace of JPY depreciation.”

An analysis by Bloomberg echoes our skepticism: they write that historically, the yen boost post intervention is likely to endure over a 1-week horizon. However, the effect will diminish soon after — even with repeated yen buying. A study of 5 distinct historical intervention periods shows:

USD/JPY dived in the week following intervention, and by an average of 1.7%, with the trade-weighted exchange rate up 2.6%
But, that was it. The average peak impact occurred after one week
A month later, the effect had waned, even with follow-up interventions. One-month trade-weighted changes averaged 1.7%. That is, the yen had declined 0.9% on average between 1-week and 1-month

Translation: USDJPY 150 and much more is now guaranteed, even if the time to reach it is delayed by one or two weeks.

end

Nobody has traded the 10 yr Japanese bond for the past two days

(ZEROHEDGE)

Nobody Has Traded 10Y Japanese Govt Bonds For 2 Days!

WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 05:20 PM

No trades (none!) were reported overnight in the benchmark 10Y Japanese Government Bond (JGB) for the second straight day.

This is the first such occurrence since 1999.

As Bloomberg reports, trading volumes in JGBs have dried up over the years as the BOJ scooped up sizable chunks of the debt to keep a cap on yields.

“The BOJ’s fixed-rate operations have become the JGB trading floor,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo.

“Players are guaranteed to find a solid buyer who also buys large lots.”

Traders also lack the incentive to trade benchmark 10-year notes because they expect yields to rise as the Fed aggressively tightens monetary policy, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

Bid-ask spreads for JGBs have exploded since March as inflation fears ripped through global bond markets (but BoJ remains stuck in its easing policy framework)…

The irony of all this is that at the same time as liquidity in the JGB market has disappeared, The Bank of Japan bought 1.26 trillion yen ($8.8 billion) of government bonds, the largest daily amount since June as it aggressively defended the upper bound of its yield curve control band…

Pressure is building on the BOJ to defend its yield-curve-control policy tonight after The Fed hikes (75bps is consensus) today. Widening yield differentials between the US and Japan have resulted in the yen sliding to a 24-year low.

Finally, we note that the issue of diminishing liquidity isn’t limited to Japanese bonds.

Bank of America analysts warned in a note this month that shrinking trading volumes in the US Treasury market may be one of the greatest threats to global financial stability.

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/RUSSIA

END

CHINA/

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

FRANCE//EUROPE//ENERGY/

Now it is France’s turn to nationalize its struggling nuclear industry.

(Zaremba/OilPrice.com)

France Prepares To Nationalize Its Struggling Nuclear Industry

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 03:30 AM

By Haley Zaremba of OilPrice.com

France is working up to fully nationalizing the currently 84% state-owned nuclear energy company Électricité de France (EDF) at the same time that the company is anticipating a massive downturn in profits.

EDF had already warned investors that its core profits would take a considerable hit this year, but just sharply increased that projected loss to a whopping 29 billion Euros (normally here we would say how much that is in dollars, but the European economy has taken such a downturn – largely thanks to energy woes – that the values of the Euro and the Dollar are virtually identical). The massive loss is thanks to a series of unfortunate events that have led to more than half of EDF’s 56 reactors being taken offline – a record shortage.

France’s nuclear sector has been hit with multiple issues at the worst possible moment. The industry is dealing with a pileup of delays and stoppages thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, a “series of maintenance issues including corrosion at some of France’s aging reactors, troubles at state-controlled energy group EDF and a years-long absence of significant new nuclear investment,” according to reporting from the Financial Times over the summer. In the few months since that FT report, the situation has grown even worse, as a severe drought has caused rivers around Europe to run dry, leaving some French and Swiss nuclear plants without enough water to keep their systems cool.

As a result, French nuclear energy output is at an all-time low. This is a major issue for the nation, which derives about 70% of its energy from nuclear power. Generally, France is a net exporter of energy, thanks to its robust and heretofore reliable nuclear sector. Now it’s being forced to import energy in a historically tight market. The European continent is experiencing a crisis of soaring energy prices thanks to a game of chicken with Moscow. In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has been working toward weaning itself off of its heavy reliance on Russian fossil fuels with the intention of instituting energy sanctions on the Kremlin. In response, Russia’s Gazprom has indefinitely cut off natural gas supply to the continent via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, citing its own suspiciously timed maintenance issues.

The timing of the French nuclear collapse is all the more tragic due to the political wrangling with Russia. France has long been the global poster child for nuclear energy, with the highest production rates per capita and an evangelical zeal for nuclear energy development to shore up energy security in the era of climate change. France was not tied in any substantive way to the dangerous reliance on Russian gas imports that made the continent’s energy security so fragile. In fact, it has prided itself on the energy independence that nuclear built. But now, just when it was most needed, French nuclear has failed to save the day.

Now, the French government is going to make a bid to fully buy out EDF in order to take control of the company as it tries to right the ship. In the coming weeks, the French government is expected to launch a tender offer for the remaining 16% of the company it doesn’t already own so it can unilaterally (and quietly) make decisions pertaining to building new reactors and addressing the myriad issues with the existing fleet. “People close to the operation have said the company’s financial woes have added to incentives to remove it from the glare of markets,” the Financial Times reports.

EDF has said that it plans to have its full fleet back up and running by early next year. In order to do so, the already heavily indebted company will have to take on a whole lot more debt at a time that the company is already under scrutiny for operational errors and oversights. At the end of the day, the issues in France are not a problem with nuclear power at all – they’re a problem of mismanagement.

end

SWITZERLAND//NORWAY

Switzerland ends their NIRP raising rates by a full 75 basis pts. Norway raises by 50 basis points as expected.

(zerohedge)

SNB Ends NIRP With 75bps Hike; Here’s What Traders Expect From BOE, Norges And CBRT

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 03:55 AM

Update: The Norges Bank hiked by 50bps to 2.25% as expected. The central bank said that the rate will most likely be raised further in November.

* * *

As Bloomberg’s Ven Ram writes, “just a couple of years ago, anyone who was bearish on Treasuries would have been laughed out of the room. But suddenly the mood is deadly serious as the Fed marches us toward a brave new world with a benchmark interest rate approaching, ahem, 5%.”

On Wednesday, Powell stuck to the script as expected, with the result that we’re likely to see front-end Treasury yields push higher and higher in the coming months as we near the Fed’s “dotted” terminal rate of 4.6%. And while traders still digest Powell’s hawkish shock, let’s also take a look at what European central banks might be sending our way.

Swiss National Bank: the SNB raised rates by 75-basis points to 0.50% after its shock rate hike in June, in line with expectations (from a small majority, or 13, of 24 polled economists), in the process ending its period of negative interest rates. The central bank said it is willing to be active in the FX market as necessary, and said that further rate hikes can not be ruled out, although there was no CHF classification in the release. With many expecting a 100bps rate hike, the Swiss franc tumbled, pulling away from a 7-year high versus the euro, with the EURCHF jumping 1.1% to 0.9610, reversing a fall to 0.9466 before the announcement

Norges Bank: Norway’s central bank has little need to up the ante at this stage given that it was among the first globally to start raising rates. Yes, its Swedish counterpart went big earlier this week, but with a Norges Bank survey pointing to a worsening backdrop for economic growth, Norwegian policy makers may opt for more of a steady-as-she-goes approach.

Bank of England: Faced, in its own words, with the biggest policy challenge in the history of its monetary policy committee, the BOE’s response has been underwhelming and lackadaisical. I would be pleasantly surprised if the BOE were to raise rates by 75, rather than 50, basis points today, even if such a move should have come much earlier in the cycle, given where inflation stands today. The BOE’s current policy rate is well below neutral, meaning its benchmark rate has effectively been fueling those inflationary pressures.

CBRT (Turkey): The Turkish lira plunged to an all-time low against the dollar ahead of the central bank’s rate decision. The currency slipped as much as 0.2% to 18.38, weakening for a fourth day amid a risk-off mood in global markets. While most economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the benchmark will stay at 13% on Thursday, a minority that includes Morgan Stanley, UniCredit SpA, and Citigroup Inc. expects the monetary authority to lower it again, with forecasts ranging from 50 basis points to a full percentage point. “We suspect the weakness in July’s activity data could be used to justify another 100 basis points rate cut this month,” Nicholas Farr, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note. “As we’ve warned before though, as long as the central bank is taking instructions from the president, the risk of sharp and disorderly falls in the lira remains elevated,” he added.

END

Bank of England hikes its interest rate by a softer than expected 50 basis points. Warns of QT

(zerohedge)

Bank Of England Hikes Rates 50bps In Split ‘Soft’ Decision, Confirms QT ‘Gilt-Selling’ Imminent

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 07:21 AM

Amid a lot of market chatter about the potential for a 75bps hike (market-implied 68% odds pre-decision), the Bank of England – in a very split decision – decided to raise rates by 50bps this morning – 5 BoE officials voted for 50bps, 3 voted for 75bps, and 1 voted for 25bps.

CMC Markets UK chief market analyst Michael Hewson about the optics

While not as big as some suggested, this second 50bps hike in a row is historic, but will raise expectations for another large increase in November (especially with 3 members having voted for 75bps this month) as the rate-differential to the US widens and puts more pressure on sterling.

Given the much larger rate increases we have seen from a number of central banks across the world, a 50bps increase actually looks rather small today.

The BoE didn’t cut much off its inflation forecast, now seeing a peak of around 11% instead of over 13%. That suggests prices are still accelerating – and keeping up pressure on the BOE to raise rates again.

The 3 members pushing for 75bps – Dave Ramsden, Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel – cited the (implicitly inflationary) fiscal package that Kwasi Kwarteng is putting out tomorrow as a reason to move.

As George Dibb, head of the Centre for Economic Justice at the IPPR, noted the MPC fired a warning shot to Truss and Kwarteng on the inflationary aspects of tomorrow’s fiscal statement…

Additionally, forward guidance seems hawkish. The committee said it would “respond forcefully as necessary” if inflationary pressures look more persistent.

Cable weakened on the smaller-than-expected rate-hike amid central bank chaos in the last 24 hours…

The decision to confirm quantitative tightening is a big deal for bond markets. It means the BOE will start active sales of gilts on Oct. 3 in the region of £10 billion a quarter.

The BOE expects its total stock, which still total almost £850 billion, to decline to around £758 billion in the first year.

There are a lot of gilts coming to the market at the same moment the Treasury is borrowing more to pay for all the tax cuts and energy rescues Liz Truss is planning and gilts weakened on the statement that certainly won’t help…

Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, is far more gloomy at the BoE’s decision:

“Another significant jump in interest rates is likely to hasten the UK’s fall into recession. Raising rates at this speed will inevitably have a chilling effect on the economy by further diminishing consumer and business confidence.”

And the British Chambers of Commerce, indicating unease at the swift increase in borrowing costs this year:

“The Bank faces an increasingly tricky balancing act. The interest rate is a very blunt instrument to control inflationary pressures that are largely driven by rocketing energy costs and global supply chain disruption. The Bank’s decision to raise rates will increase the risk for individuals and organisations exposed to debt burdens and rising mortgage costs – dampening consumer confidence.”

Finally, we note that traders are also paring their tightening bets. They are wagering on 143 basis points of additional tightening from the BOE by year-end, as opposed to 157 basis points previously, as perhaps they see the bigger threat of a deeper darker stagflation looming

* * *

Full statement below:

BANK OF ENGLAND MONETARY POLICY SUMMARY, SEPTEMBER 2022

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 21 September 2022, the MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 2.25%. Five members voted to raise Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, three members preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.75 percentage points, to 2.5%, and one member preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 2%. The Committee also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of purchased UK government bonds, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by Stg 80 billion over the next twelve months, to a total of Stg 758 billion, in line with the strategy set out in the minutes of the August MPC meeting.

In the August Monetary Policy Report, the MPC noted that the risks around its projections from both external and domestic factors were exceptionally large, given the very large increase in wholesale gas prices since May and the consequent impacts on real incomes for UK households and on CPI inflation.

Since August, wholesale gas prices have been highly volatile, and there have been large moves in financial markets, including a sharp increase in government bond yields globally. Sterling has depreciated materially over the period.

Uncertainty around the outlook for UK retail energy prices has nevertheless fallen, following the Government’s announcements of support measures including an Energy Price Guarantee. The Guarantee is likely to limit significantly further increases in CPI inflation, and reduce its volatility, while supporting aggregate private demand relative to the Committee’s August projections. An additional Growth Plan announcement is scheduled to take place shortly after this MPC meeting, which is expected to provide further fiscal support, and is likely to contain news that is material for the economic outlook. Once this announcement has been made, and as part of its November MPC round, the Committee will make a full assessment of the impact on demand and inflation from all these announcements, along with other news, and determine further implications for monetary policy.

There has been some modest downside news to underlying UK GDP growth in 2022 Q3, and faster indicators and contacts of the Bank’s Agents suggest that the level of consumer spending is likely to have peaked in this quarter. There have been some indications that the demand for labour is weakening, although the labour market nonetheless tightened further over the summer, with inactivity materially higher than anticipated. Consumer services prices and nominal wages have continued to rise more rapidly than expected, although core goods price inflation has been lower than expected. [cont.]

Twelve-month CPI inflation fell slightly from 10.1% in July to 9.9% in August, with the release triggering the exchange of open letters between the Governor and the Chancellor of the Exchequer that is being published alongside this monetary policy announcement. Given the Energy Price Guarantee, the peak in measured CPI inflation is now likely to be lower than projected in the August Report, at just under 11% in October. Nevertheless, energy bills will still go up and, combined with the indirect effects of higher energy costs, inflation is expected to remain above 10% over the following few months, before starting to fall back.

The MPC’s remit is clear that the inflation target applies at all times, reflecting the primacy of price stability in the UK monetary policy framework. The framework recognises that there will be occasions when inflation will depart from the target as a result of shocks and disturbances. The economy has been subject to a succession of very large shocks. Monetary policy will ensure that, as the adjustment to these shocks continues, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term. Monetary policy is also acting to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations are anchored at the 2% target.

There have been further signs since the August Report of continuing strength in domestically generated inflation. In and of itself, the Government’s Energy Price Guarantee will lower and bring forward the expected peak of CPI inflation. For the duration of the Guarantee, this might be expected to reduce the risk that a long period of externally generated price inflation leads to more persistent domestic price and wage pressures, although that risk remains material.

The labour market is tight and domestic cost and price pressures remain elevated. While the Guarantee reduces inflation in the near term, it also means that household spending is likely to be less weak than projected in the August Report over the first two years of the forecast period. All else equal, and relative to that forecast, this would add to inflationary pressures in the medium term.

In view of these considerations, the Committee voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 2.25%, at this meeting.

The MPC will take the actions necessary to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit. Policy is not on a pre-set path. The Committee will, as always, consider and decide the appropriate level of Bank Rate at each meeting. The scale, pace and timing of any further changes in Bank Rate will reflect the Committee’s assessment of the economic outlook and inflationary pressures. Should the outlook suggest more persistent inflationary pressures, including from stronger demand, the Committee will respond forcefully, as necessary. [cont.]

At its August meeting, the MPC had communicated that it was provisionally minded to commence gilt sales shortly after its September meeting, subject to economic and market conditions being appropriate. At this meeting, the Committee agreed that the conditions were appropriate, and voted to begin the sale of UK government bonds held in the Asset Purchase Facility shortly after this meeting.

end

An excellent commentary on the plight of the hapless ECB:

(zerohedge)

EU/ECB// CRISIS

The European Central Bank’s Zimbabwean Model

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Declan Hayes,

As the Dutch farmers are showing, that is something worth opposing von der Leyen, Lagarde, Stoltenberg and Europe’s other Quislings and the perches they pontificate from.

Though the function of European, German, Japanese and Zimbabwean central banks is to enable the credibility and efficiency of the financial side of their respective economies so that the real side of their economies may achieve the nation’s broader macro economic goals, NATO’s central banks have obviously and disastrously abandoned those tasks for reasons this article makes apparent. Because Zimbabwe, like Germany’s Weimar Republic before it, has reached annual inflation rates of 90 sextillion per cent a year, Europe should not be emulating the financial and economic basket case of Harare.

Whatever about Zimbabwe, Germany has been famously down this road before and, in a total reversal of earlier post-war policies, seems determined to traverse it again. The European Central Bank, based in Frankfurt, is printing euros as quickly as their colleagues in Zimbabwe are printing Zimbabwean dollars, as the Confederates printed their Greybacks and as Weimar printed their famously worthless marks.

Although Weimar’s woes were many, two of the most pertinent were that the Kaiser borrowed immensely to fund his armies, whose victories were supposed to enable him to repay his nation’s debts, and that the Western allies bled defeated Germany’s resources dry, thus opening the way for Herr Hitler once Weimar fell. Europe’s central banks are following this very policy today. They are doling out billions to ease energy bills, to bribe farmers and, most notoriously, to feed the money laundering Ponzi scheme that is Zelensky’s Kiev junta. The money supply, at more than 15 trillion euros, is at record levels and real interest rates are in negative terrain, pauperizing pensioners but failing to kick start their fuel starved economies. Inflation,.Germany’s bane, is again on the march as too far much money is in search of far too few bags of fire wood; and English toilet paper has increased in price by 50% in the last few months, Albion is really in squeaky bum time.

As the European Central Bank’s leaders presently have no other card to play, they must think their printing presses are enough to prevail in Ukraine and to allow Europeans to both eat and heat themselves this winter. Not only is that wishful thinking on the part of ECB President Christine Lagarde, the ‘multi cultural’ Parisian, who previously fronted the IMF and who held senior Ministerial positions in the French government but it betrays her fundamental ignorance about monetary policy.

The main aim of the euro was to have the stability of the German mark and the Dutch guilder and not to be as volatile as Lagarde’s French franc, which was devalued four times since 1945. Unlike Lagarde, the Central Bank of the Federal Republic of Germany, along with that of Japan, seemed to have understood monetary policy, which is best seen as being like the throttle of a motorbike which must, when necessary, allow more fuel to enter the economic engine but which also must not flood it by drowning it in Zimbabwean dollars, French francs, Confederate Greybacks or Lagardean euros.

To further illustrate this point, recall that the interest rates of the German Federal Republic and Japan were flatter than pancakes for decades after their 1945 surrender. This central bank policy, together with a stable exchange rate, allowed Japanese and German industry to plan ahead, to innovate, to capture markets and to allow their countries to prosper on the backs of their technological and industrial might.

Lord Keynes, who was involved in the financial intricacies of both the First and Second World Wars, understood all that. He had the measure of the Lagardes of this world whom, he famously said, were slaves to long dead economists, the Chicago School in the case of Lagarde and her ECB confreres. Like the CIA’s Chicago School and the Austrian School that inspired them, their analyses omit not only the real economy but the political leadership and direction necessary to achieve economic and social success, which the post war Japanese and German states possessed in abundance, just as China does today.

China is, of course, the workshop of the world, just as Japan, Britain and Germany formerly were. But a large part of their success was due to their monetary policy, which served the interests of their economy with Japan, most notably, keeping both the yen’s value stable and Japan’s interest rates artificially low for decades.

Lagarde’s Europe works to a different beat, printing euros by the billion, both for Zelensky’s regime to trouser and to stave off Europe’s pending collapse which needs action on the real side of the economy, rather than gifting reams of cash to oil companies if it is to survive. Europe’s salvation is in getting back to work by using the cheapest energy wherever it can be found to produce high valued added German and Dutch goods.

Up to when the Americans ordered the closure of Nord Stream 2, that affordable energy was Russian, which has now been jettisoned in favor of printing billions more euro for Zelensky to squirrel away. Forget about our sanctioned Russian caviar. We can no longer afford Dutch tomatoes, British black pudding or German pork sausages because ‘cosmopolitans’ like Lagarde and the moronic von der Leyen have decreed we must follow Sri Lanka and jettison the Russian fertilizer that is at the heart of both European farming and European urbanization. Lagarde and von der Leyen see the solution to our problems in giving the Dutch farmers a few euros in lieu of the sustainable lifestyle the Dutch had previously carved out for themselves through hard work and massive investment.

But their monetary madness, if madness it is, goes a lot deeper than even destroying European farmers. Take a squint at European debt rates, at the rate of public debt and of the collapsing rates of investment and see the abyss that looms ahead. Though Ireland, to take one of the more extreme examples, has an external debt 700% the size of its GDP, its government is still handing out bribes galore to delay its inevitable collapse. As its only representations on the EuroStoxx50 index of top Euro denominated shares are CRH, a corruption ridden builders’ providers, Flutter Entertainment, an ethically challenged gambling company, and Linde PLC, a multinational German company domiciled in Ireland for tax evasion reasons, Ireland has no chance of repaying its debt in either this world or the next, and its promises to rebuild Ukraine are therefore not worth a Continental.

And, if we go through the EuroStoxx50 index’ mainland European companies, which include a rag tag mixture of auto, alcohol, financial, food, luxury goods, chemical, sportswear, retail and real estate rental companies, we see the same story of companies that are going the way of the dodo. Because we can see all their governments have no chance of repaying their debts either, we must then ask are Lagarde and the insufferable von der Leyen moron more knaves than fools.

Although von der Leyen is undoubtedly an idiot of epic proportions, she and those in cahoots with her are obvious knaves as well. They have sacrificed Western Europe to what they describe as the vagaries of the market but to what is, in effect, the grand designs of Amazon, Gates, Musk, Schwab and similarly shoddy Lords of our age.

Though Lagarde’s lot can throw all the crumbs they want to small German businesses and highly efficient Dutch farmers, they are nowhere near enough to keep the lights on, never mind to keep those enterprises viable. That can only be done by instilling stability in the economy and confidence going forward, the sorts of stability and confidence that were the hallmark of the unique economic structures of both Federal Germany and Japan that must now give way to the behemoths of BlackRock, Vanguard, Amazon and Microsoft that finance the World Economic Forum’s civilian wing and that have no need of Dutch farmers, small retailers, entrepreneurs, the mittelstand of Germany, Switzerland and Austria or any other such expendables.

Though Keynes’ long dead economists were correct to say that money is only a veil over the real economy, it also uses dupes like Lagarde and von der Leyen to mask how companies like Amazon and Google, working with the CIA and allied bodies, are colonizing and pauperizing Europe and thereby making all that is good in European society go Harare’s way, into economic freefall.

And so, Europe is at a crossroads, where the path of the World Economic Forum, NATO and the European Central Bank is Hayek’s Road to Serfdom with all the horrors impoverished Africa, Syria, Iraq and Yemen have endured, and the alternative path that is taking root in Russia, China, Iran and Latin America can also be ours if we can rid ourselves of our ECB, EC and WEF lords and ladies. In the one, we will own nothing and will, like tame dogs, learn to love our nothingness. In the other, if we work for it, we at least have the hope of living as free citizens and, as the Dutch farmers are showing, that is something worth opposing von der Leyen, Lagarde, Stoltenberg and Europe’s other Quislings and the perches they pontificate from.

END

UK POUND/USA DOLLAR

Traders are positioning for the pound coming closer to parity to the USA dollar

(Bloomberg)

Soros’ Short Trade Rhymes For Pound As Parity Looms

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 05:00 AM

By Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst Ven Ram

Exactly three decades after George Soros bet successfully against the pound, a host of traders seem to be positioned for further declines in the British currency. History is in their favor.

Sterling may weaken toward parity against the dollar sooner than commonly thought if the euro continues to stay under pressure, increasing correlations between the two Atlantic currencies show.

If that association continues to be strong — and there is no reason to expect otherwise — sterling will slide to parity should the euro weaken further toward 0.90 against the greenback.

The pound’s rolling three-month correlation against the euro is now near the highest in four years. A parsing of that relationship projects the following levels for GBP/USD if those correlations are sustained in the coming months:

A loud caveat against any overzealous interpretation of the above is that correlation doesn’t imply causation, and the levels posited for cable just show what’s at play in the markets at the moment.

On a fundamental level, sterling has been let down this year by inflation-adjusted yield differentials that have swung in favor of the dollar. While the Bank of England started raising rates before the Federal Reserve in the current cycle, you don’t get any prizes for being the first to start off the blocks in a marathon — rather, it’s where you are in relation to the destination that counts.

Given where retail-price inflation is, the BOE’s policy rate isn’t even in neutral territory, let alone approach the zip code of restrictive territory, a fact not lost on currency traders.

Sterling is likely to be on the back foot so long as the Fed’s actions keep boosting dollar-denominated real rates further out into positive territory, widening those differentials even more and removing an incentive for traders to chase sterling higher.Positioning on the pound reflects the wave of pessimism that has come to beset the currency: net non-commercial combined combined positions are deeply negative.

Back in 1992, Soros built up huge short positions against sterling after Britain joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism with inflation running high amid low interest rates, with the latter two conditions eerily reminiscent of the current backdrop.

What is the risk to the plot of a vulnerable pound? A weakening of the current strong correlation with EUR/USD will come as a boost to sterling, though given how elevated the linkage is, it may be foolhardy to expect a breakdown in that correlation until the Fed is done with raising rates.

A scenario where the BOE suddenly amps up its hiking campaign and starts raising rates at a far more vigorous pace than it has done so far in this cycle will also lend sterling a helping hand.

History, as Mark Twain observed, doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. For the pound, though, history may repeat, rhyme and chime with what happened three decades ago.

END

Expect dysfunctional futures market as it may spark the next EU energy crisis. Liquidity crunch looms due to huge margin calls. In Europe energy prices are determined by future prices, totally unlike USA and Canada rates.

(zerohedge)

“Dysfunctional Futures Market” May Spark Next EU Energy Crisis As Liquidity Crunch Looms

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 06:55 AM

Europe’s energy sector is facing a perfect storm as a dysfunctional futures market may lead to a new crisis where prices move higher due to a liquidity crunch, according to Reuters.

Sharp market swings in natural gas and electricity prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left some oil and gas companies without the necessary funds to hedge their physical trades if they cannot satisfy margin calls, an exchange requirement for extra collateral to guarantee trading positions when prices rise…

“We have a dysfunctional futures market, which then creates problems for the physical market and leads to higher prices, higher inflation,” a senior trading source told Reuters.

In March, the lack of liquidity became apparent when trading firms, utilities, oil majors, and bankers sent a letter to governments and financial institutions such as European Central Bank for emergency liquidity to shore up energy markets as prices surged.

A flurry of traders who hedged their physical positions with short financial exposure in derivative markets were squeezed by soaring spot prices due to the invasion and forced to cover as increased exchange requirements forced margin calls.

Market players typically borrow to build short positions in the futures market, with 85-90% coming from banks. Some 10-15% of the value of the short, known as minimum margin, is covered by the traders’ own funds and deposited with a broker’s account.

But if funds in the account fall below the minimum margin requirement, in this case 10-15%, it triggers a ‘margin call.’ –Reuters

Today’s challenging situation ahead of winter is that increased margin requirements to secure trades are sucking up capital at NatGas majors, trading firms, and power utilities.

Some firms and trading desks have called it quits due to high margin requirements, which has led to a decline in market participants — ultimately causing liquidity to shrink, allowing for even more volatility that could send prices higher.

Senior bankers and traders said exchanges, clearing houses, and brokers had increased initial margin requirements to 100%-150% of contract value from 10-15%. For Example, the ICE exchange demands margin rates of up to 79% on Dutch TTF gas futures.

The letter sent by the European Federation of Energy Traders in March said, “the same company which normally expects to experience daily margin cash flows related to price movements of around 50 million euro, now faces variation margin requirements of up to 500 million euro within a business day.”

As we detailed earlier this month, many companies are finding it increasingly challenging to manage margin calls.

Norwegian state-owned firm Equinor, Europe’s top gas trader, recently warned that energy companies, excluding in Britain, need at least 1.5 trillion euros to cover margin calls.

One European Central Bank policymaker disputed that figure and said losses are much less in the worst-case scenario.

Last week, Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura, pointed out one warning sign due to the lack of liquidity in commodity markets:

“Open interest and volumes have come down significantly as a result of what is happening on the margining … will ultimately have an impact on the physical volumes that are being traded because physical traders need to hedge.”

European officials have even discussed plans to suspend power derivative markets as a form of intervention to prevent what some believe could trigger the next ‘Lehman Style’ meltdown.

Helge Haugane, Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power, recently said in an interview that “liquidity support is going to be needed.”

So far, countries like Germany have nationalized failed utilities such as Uniper SE. The question becomes how big the crisis is and if the ECB will need to get involved this winter if prices soar higher due to a lack of liquid markets, triggering even more margin calls. Europe appears to be locked in a death loop.

end

Credit Suisse May Exit US Market, Fire ‘Thousands’, And Shuffle Risky Assets Into ‘Bad Bank’

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 12:00 PM

Credit Suisse is mulling several drastic options as it seeks to emerge from losses and scandals, including exiting the US market, firing more than 10% of its 45,000 global workforce, and splitting its investment bank into three – which would include the creation of a “bad bank” to silo risky assets, the Financial Times and Reuters report.

Under proposals presented to the Board of Directors, the Zurich-based bank is looking to avoid a damaging capital raise by selling off profitable units such as its securitized products business. According to FT, bank officials are desperate to avoid going to the market for funding in light of the group’s depressed share price – which hit its lowest level in at least 30 years in recent weeks amid a series of downgrades.

The bank – which has been hit with a corporate spying scandal, a record trading loss, shuttered investment funds and a deluge of lawsuits in recent years – tasked new CEO Ulrich Körner with carrying out a ‘radical shake-up’ which is expected to be announced during the bank’s third-quarter results on October 27.

“We have said we will update on progress on our comprehensive strategy review when we announce our third-quarter earnings,” the bank said in a statement. “It would be premature to comment on any potential outcomes before then.”

The latest proposals under consideration would see the investment bank divided into three parts: the group’s advisory business, which could be spun off at some later point; a bad bank to hold high-risk assets that will be wound down; and the rest of the business. -FT

According to the report, Credit Suisse directors Michael Klein and Blythe Masters floated an idea to offer investment bankers an equity stake in the business, in what has been viewed as an early sign of a spin-off of the division. Another idea reported by Bloomberg is a potential plan by the board to rejuvenate the bank’s First Boston brand for the investment bank. That said, neither idea are ‘viewed as a priority’ according to FT.

On Thursday it was reported that the bank’s co-head of flow credit sales, Geoffrey Drayson – who was hired in 2013 – is leaving.

With its equity price at record lows, we also note that Credit Suisse default risk (based on 5Y CDS) is at its highest since Lehman…

Winding down ‘problematic positions’

The board has also discussed reviving the bank’s “Strategic Resolution Unit” (SRU) to house high-risk assets and non-core businesses that don’t align with a focus on wealth management, such as the New York-based securitized products unit which has been earmarked for disposal. The SRU was previously used by the bank to conduct a strategic realignment under former CEO Tidjane Thiam.

The securitized products business packages debts such as mortgages and yacht loans and then sells them as securities. A sale of the unit would “would reduce the bank’s capital commitment but also deprive the bank of one of its most profitable business lines,” according to the report.

In August, Deutsche Bank analysts predicted that paring back the investment bank while growing other business lines and strengthening its capital rations would leave a US$4bn hole in the group’s capital position.

“Running down other parts of the investment bank and selling smaller businesses across divisions could help over time, but this would likely come too late to avoid an equity raise,” wrote Deutsche analysts Benjamin Goy and Sharath Kumar Ramanathan.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Russia restricts travel for young men as flights abroad sell out after Putin’s partial mobilization. Putin’s move for a referendum in the Donbas is a big deal and may signal

Putin’s desire to attack Ukraine’s infrastructure.

(zerohedge)

Russia Restricts Travel For Young Men, Flights Abroad Sell Out, After ‘Partial’ Mobilization

WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 04:40 PM

Within hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin early Wednesday called up some 300,000 reservists as part of his “partial mobilization” due to the military operation in Ukraine, virtually all Russian flights abroad over the coming days have been reported as sold out.

The Moscow Times reports that “Flights from Moscow to the capitals of Georgia, Turkey and Armenia — which do not require visas for Russians — for Sept. 21 were unavailable within minutes of Putin’s announcement, according to Russia’s top travel planning website aviasales.ru.”

It’s as yet unclear the precise extent of who will be called up, but Russia’s military boasts access to some 25 million total reservists.

“By noon Moscow time, direct flights from Moscow to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan had also stopped showing up on the website,” Moscow Times continues.

Within hours after these initial local reports, air travel monitoring sites said that Russia’s domestic airlines halted all sales of tickets abroad to Russian men aged 18 to 65; however, these can reportedly have a waiver from the Ministry of Defense.

Land borders, particularly with Georgia in the south and Finland to the west, have also seen a reported surge in activity…

Huge queues 10km long in some places on the border of Russia and Finland.— WarMonitor (@WarMonitor3) September 21, 2022

State-owned Aeroflot quickly sold out of all tickets to Istanbul – a longtime popular vacation destination for Russians – for at least the next three days, based on what its website shows. There are no spots left for Yerevan, Armenia through the weekend either.

The sudden attempt of some to evade being called up by the defense ministry also resulted in a spike in ticket prices, as one report out of Serbia noted, “Tickets for the Moscow-Belgrade flights operated by Air Serbia, the only European carrier besides Turkish Airlines to maintain flights to Russia despite a European Union flight embargo, sold out for the next several days.”

The report indicated, “The price for flights from Moscow to Istanbul or Dubai increased within minutes before jumping again, reaching as high as 9,200 euros ($9,119) for a one-way economy class fare.”

end

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/DONBAS

Ukraine now threatens citizens in the Donbas to a 5 year prison sentence for voting in the referendums

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Threatens 5-Year Prison Sentence For Anyone Voting In “Sham Referendums”

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Starting last month Ukrainian lawmakers began seeking to implement severe consequences for those participating in Russia-sponsored referendums in occupied territories of Ukraine. For example, a law is being pushed through parliament which criminalizes obtaining a Russian passport in temporarily occupied territories, Ukrainian sources reported last week, according to Yahoo News.

Proposed possible punishments have included losing Ukrainian citizenship, or even lengthy jail sentences. But other officials have argued for a more compromising approach given the necessity of survival in occupied areas. But now the Ukrainian government has reiterated its willingness to impose steep penalties for even participating in any Kremlin-sponsored vote to join the Russian Federation.

Russian President Putin’s Wednesday morning address announcing partial mobilization also affirmed plans to move forward with referendums in the LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

Ukraine has responded by warning its citizens that any official who promotes or organizes the voting faces a“prison term of five to ten years” – as well as possible asset seizure by the state, and being barred from employment in select positions for up to 15 years.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshchuk announced this week that a five year prison term is currently being considered for anyone caught participating in “sham referenda” by government authorities:

“Some lawyers believe that those actions fall under Article 110 part 1 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, ‘Infringement on Ukraine’s territorial integrity,’ punishable with a prison term of up to five years,” she told the Strana portal on Tuesday.

She further called on citizens currently in occupied to territories to “leave, if possible.”

Vereshchuk was cited further as follows according to a Russian media translation of her words:

“This [may] mean imprisonment for up to five years. So, once again I strongly advise residents of the temporarily occupied territories: do not take a [Russian] passport, do not go to referendums, do not cooperate with the occupiers and leave, if it’s possible,” the official stated.

Below is what a law proposed last week in Ukrainian parliament stipulates:

acquisition of citizenship or obtaining a Russian passport by state officials or representatives of local self-government in the absence of signs of high treason;
propaganda, public appeals, and coercion to act correspondingly;
restriction of the rights of people who have not received citizenship or passports from the Russian Federation.

But the important distinction was added: “The Ministry of Reintegration of the Temporary Occupied Territories noted that obtaining a Russian passport in the temporarily occupied territories is justified only if a person thus tries to return to the territory controlled by Ukraine through Russia and third countries,” according to a Ukrainian report republished in Yahoo.

END

This is good for gold

(zerohedge)

Russian Nukes Can Be Used To Defend Annexed Ukraine Regions, Kremlin Warns

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 09:45 AM

Once again Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, has served the role of issuing more severe ‘read between the lines’ warnings and threats fresh off President Vladimir Putin’s Wednesday speech announcing partial mobilization of national forces and which confirmed referendums of occupied portions of Ukraine to join the Russian Federation.

Putin’s most alarming line came when he said, “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people,” following with “It’s not a bluff.” He had also stressed Moscow is ready to use “all available” means to protect its “territorial integrity”.

Medvedev has taken the president’s words further in Thursday statements, stressing that regarding Russian-seized territory and the move to vote in several areas – including the LPR, DPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions – “there is no going back” and that even a ‘nuclear option’ could be on the table.

“The Donbas [Donetsk and Luhansk] republics and other territories will be accepted into Russia,” he posted to Telegram. That’s when the former president and top national security official doubled down on Putin’s nuclear warning, stating:

Russia has announced that not only mobilization capabilities, but also any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons and weapons based on new principles, could be used for such protection.

Putin and Medvedev’s statements mark the first top any top Russian officials have affirmed readiness to bring newly acquired Russian territories under Moscow’s nuclear doctrine.

However, Russian forces do not yet control 100% of any of the four main territories where annexation votes are to be held – with some referendums set for early as this weekend according to prior reports.

To review of the past 48 hours of Kremlin decision-making which is poised to escalate this war even further, here is the logical course of what just got enacted in the call-up of some 300,000 reservists:

Conscripts were previously told they won’t be sent to Ukraine to fight because they are stationed/defend inside Russia
Ukrainian-held territories are now about to vote to join the Russian Federation.
When these territories join Russian then they are “inside Russia.” They are Russian oblasts and attempts to defend (formerly) Ukrainian territory would then mark an invasion of Russian territory supported by NATO equipment.
Thus Medvedev’s warning of ‘willingness’ to use nukes covers these territories inside Ukraine.

Putin’s emphasis of this is “not a bluff” notwithstanding, some analysts say this is all about posturing in order to scare NATO away from escalation…

“I think it signals that he wants people to think he would risk nuclear war,” Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “I don’t think it means he is any more likely to do it than he was yesterday.”

“If he says that any attack on soil that he calls Russia is going to be a nuclear tripwire, Ukraine’s already broken that in Crimea,” O’Brien added in comments given to NBC. Yet Washington says it is taking this nuclear rhetoric seriously.

As for the White House, President Biden in his Wednesday UN General Assembly speech in New York called out Putin’s “overt, reckless and irresponsible” nuclear threats, warning that such wars should “never be fought” and that Russia’s actions should “blood run cold”. He renewed his warning of “a nuclear war cannot be won” – saying the US does “not seek a cold war”.

end

Fwd: Gonzalo Lira tells Mike Adams: Zelensky’s offensives have caused the death of over 12,000 Ukrainians – NaturalNews.com

The craziness of the conflict in the Ukraine is a global travesty of injustice and inept enablers who of ill purpose who have lost all sense of national interest sacrificed for globalist agendas which no longer matter or are possible. That ship of globalism has sailed, never to return. Unless it is masked as Chinese mercantile dominance controlled by China and not non Chinese wannabes. The hegemony strength of the West is being tossed on to the fire of economic devastation in favor of China either naively or by design.

Several weeks ago i wrote about a book coming out in November that will encapsulate previously classified documents going back to 1991 which will demonstrate how the West in collusion with certain Russian oligarchs was working to breakup Russia for personal gain. Did you know that NATO invited Russia at one time to be part of NATO? Truth covered up will be laid bare for all to see. And no doubt some parties will want to duck under the bedcovers. And while we are always told about how bad Putin is, one should should look at the Oligarchs and how they rose to power and wealth and the dirty stories that associate with them. Putin with his own skeletons is moderate and a pauper compared to many others in Russia. And yes, today many of current slate of Oligarchs are unhappy because they have been read the riot act and either toe the line or are sent packing without their wealth. And those already departed despise both the Kremlin and Putin as they sit in Israel and Dubai enjoying their spoils. And those oligarchs from the Ukraine are no different sucking the last drops of wealth they can steal. In some cases, they have run out of cash and are now selling assets as the thievery is denied. They too hate Russia and blame the west for not doing enough. And then various enablers who looked to plunder for their own benefit are unhappy as denial means wasted investments. And naturally Ukrainians die daily in this crappy conflict. Gonzalo describes in brief which the recent offenses have produced in useless deaths. People fail to comprehend that Russia does not need territory but does need to preserve it’s border threats. Russia has more territory than most nations and does not seek more for the sake of land itself. However, it is not without benefits to control the most productive part of the Ukraine as part of Russia gaining about 12 trillion in value and 5 million in population. When Russians retreated it was not just the correct thing to do but in keeping with the objective to eliminate Ukraine as fighting force by drawing out troops and killing them as Gonzalo points out.

I fear, we in the West are ignorant of what lies beyond Putin in Kremlin hardliners who left to operate freely would be much harsher with the Ukraine and the West and who we should recognize as a much bigger threat than Putin. These same folks would cause current Oligarchs to seek refugee with packed bags abroad or in Siberia camps and they are in denial to think otherwise. In Russia, Putin’s current support is from the military who is tasked with preserving Russia for the Russian people and it’s integrity of territory. Everything Russia is doing goes to that for now. It will be what they see as necessary that will occur. Fortunately, for the world they are moderates akin to Putin.

The biggest travesty of this conflict is yet to be felt or understood. The West has lost a relationship with Russia which benefited both parties and acted as a counter balance to China and it’s influence on and in Russia. To this end, this is a loss for the West and Russia. As both parties will suffer in different ways. Russia suffers in greater reliance on China for a time while the West is replaced as a beneficial partner, with India and Eurasia, where Russia competes with China for influence; minus the West who is not welcomed. And the West suffers from the denial of access to cheap Russian energy and raw materials and a counter balance to China, while being shut out from Eurasian growth and shunned by both the SCO and BRIC nations who advance their own hegemony midst Western self inflicted chaos. Over the next few months the extent of damage to Europe will become most apparent and it may take a decade or more for Europe to return to where it was, if in fact it can. And at that point the world will have moved forward leaving Europe further behind where it could have been. And that assumes Europe stays together as the EU which is a big stretch of imagination.

Whatever comes our way in the future will be quite different than in the past and requires the ability to embrace new challenges and realities and new relationships as the past with its’ memories offers no refugee for tomorrow.

Putin’s speech in English.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-09-21-zelensky-offensives-caused-12000-ukrainian-deaths.html

Gonzalo Lira tells Mike Adams: Zelensky’s offensives have caused the death of over 12,000 Ukrainians

IRAN

Riots continue for the 5 day in an anti hijab protest

(zerohedge)

At Least 7 Dead In Iran As Anti-Hijab Protests Grow

WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 08:40 PM

A fifth day of protests in Iran have resulted in multiple deaths amid a security crackdown, following the death last week of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old from Iranian Kurdistan who reportedly died due to being roughed up by police for “unsuitable attire” – or not conforming to Islamic Republic standards of a hijab.

Iranian officials say seven people have died since protests erupted Saturday, following Amini’s funeral, where women began removing their headscarves in protest, sometimes burning them in public displays of defiance. Demonstrators have decried instances of what they say is ‘live fire’ tactics and deadly forced used by police to disperse the protests, which have now spread across several provinces.

At least one of the dead has been reported as a security member, coming also amid hundreds of arrests. “Crowds cheered when women burned their hijabs on a bonfire in Sari on Tuesday, the fifth successive day of unrest,” BBC has reported of scenes coming from the country Tuesday. “Activists said a woman was among three protesters shot dead by security forces in Urmia, Piranshahr and Kermanshah.”

Dozens of videos showing fierce anti-hijab protests, as well as chants against the country’s ‘morality police’ have been circulating widely on the internet.

According to a description of some of the viral protest videos reviewed by The New York Times:

Protesters have been calling for an end to the Islamic Republic, chanting things like “Mullahs get lost,” “We don’t want an Islamic republic,” and “Death to the supreme leader.” Women have also burned hijabs in protest against the law, which requires all women above the age of puberty to wear a head covering and loose clothing.

Tehran has responded Tuesday by throttling internet speeds and also outright blocking social media sites, including Instagram.

“For security reasons, the relevant authorities may impose certain restrictions on internet speed,” Iran’s Information Ministry announced in a fresh statement.

Meanwhile, the circumstances surrounding Amini’s death have been contested, with authorities painting a narrative of a girl brought into custody who then suffered a heart attack:

There were reports that police beat Ms Amini’s head with a baton and banged her head against one of their vehicles, Acting UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Nada al-Nashif said.

The police have denied that she was mistreated and said she suffered “sudden heart failure”. But her family has said she was fit and healthy.

Authorities days ago even released a video which purports to show a young woman collapsing – though it remains impossible to verify the identity of the person in the clip or context…

In his UN General Assembly address Wednesday, at a moment his government is facing international criticism including by Biden himself at the assembly meeting, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi decried the West’s ‘double standard’, saying “human rights belong to all but unfortunately this is trampled upon by many governments,” and cited the example of “the native tribes of Canada, whose bodies of hundreds of their children were discovered in mass graves in a school.”

The Iranian leader claimed further before the assembly, “We are defenders of a fight against injustice in all of its forms, against humanity, against spirituality, against the almighty, against the people of the world, no matter where it may occur.”

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES////COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

VACCINE//COVID ISSUES//GLOBAL

Watch: Rand Paul Promises To “Find The Paper Trail” For Lab Leak COVID Origin

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 10:20 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Senator Rand Paul vowed this week to continue to expose the origins of the COVID pandemic and uncover a paper trail that he is positive will lead back to the Wuhan lab research funded by Anthony Fauci and the National Institutes of Health.

“The entire pandemic, if it came from a lab, the fact that he approved the research and funded the lab would draw culpability to himself.” Paul said of Fauci during an appearance on Fox Business.

“Culpability to all of these people who made the unwise decision to send money to China to do dangerous research. That’s why they steadfastly resist this,” the Senator added referring to his efforts in the Senate.

Paul continued, “If you look at the early e-mails when they first discovered the sequence of this virus, January 31 of 2020, they are quite frightened. There are harried e-mails going back and forth until 2:30 in the morning.”

“All of the initial scientists are saying to him, holy cow. We have looked at the sequence and it looks like it has been manipulated in the lab. In fact, it has a cleavage site. The way the virus gets into the cell, that we do not see in nature, typically, and that Chinese last year ask us money to do that research,” Paul further explained.

“All kinds of alarms and bells went off for a day or two,” the Senator added.

“And then we have another couple of e-mails where Dr. Collins and Dr. Fauci are talking about how they are science, and this would be really damaging to science and the NIH, and all the taxpayer money we get and also to themselves personally,” Paul further stated, asserting “So they began a cover-up.”

“I think it is probably the biggest in the history of science and we will get to the bottom of this. I promise you, there will be a paper trail,” Paul urged.

“Should we win in November, I will use every bit of subpoena power to get every bit of data. We will bring all of the scientists under oath and we will get to the bottom of this,” Paul vowed.

Watch: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-rand-paul-promises-find-paper-trail-lab-leak-covid-origin

Paul recently slammed Fauci for taking the default position of trying to “cover up” his activities, including potentially encouraging social media companies to censor medical information.

The Senator has warned the NIH that it should not attempt to destroy any documents relating to or in the possession of Anthony Fauci as he retires.

Paul has called for restricting the exporting of DNA technology to China in the same way nuclear technology to the Communist regime is restricted, and has revealed in his Senate hearings that there is a committee that is supposed to oversee experimentation with potentially lethal viruses, but that it is above the oversight of Congress.

* * *

GLOBAL ISSUES//ECONOMY

European reality and beyond

Inbox

Earlier today, i briefly met up with my organic farmer friend. She informed me that she is experiencing a glass shortage that will restrict her ability to store food in jars which she sells year round. This glass shortage has been in the making some time with glass jars being imported by the container load which are no longer available and stopped being viable in transit cost some time ago. This all adds up to real pressure on local artisans and a lessening of food availability which translates into higher food cost.
There is a reason why companies are stopping best before dates on food.

PAUL ALEXANDER…

Asia to Roll Out First Inhaled & Nasal-Spray Covid Vaccines as regulators in China & India are first to give the green light; we know infection starts & spreads in nasal-oral mucosae FIRST; too late??

‘New vaccines are far less studied than existing Covid-19 shots’: so what is new? Nothing about COVID was tested, nothing! Greed, greed, greed, madness and insanity! Power-drunk malfeasants!

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 22

▷ LISTEN SAVE

I/we argue this is too late, we knew this day 1, that the optimal vaccine, if one was being brought, was to be a nasal one for this is where the virus lands, in the oral-nasal mucosal layer and the immune response begins there, and that is, IF it was needed. It, the COVID injection, was never needed, and if so, it was to be offered and NEVER mandated and ONLY for high-risk specialized groups, not carte blanche to all age groups. We do not vaccinated across all age-groups as the risk is differential. We knew out of the gate that COVID was amenable to risk stratification and baseline risk was prognostic on severity of outcome and mortality. We saw that a very steep age-risk curve existed and for those 70 to 75 years old and below, they had a near zero risk of severe outcome as we have seen across 2.5 years, and risk of survival was 99.999%.

SOURCE:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/asia-to-roll-out-first-inhaled-and-nasal-spray-covid-vaccineswill-they-work-11663752601

end

We are shifting away from heavy reliance on hydroxy-HCQ & ivermectin-IVM as early treatment (these are the dynamic duo drugs that are very effective) & toward nasal-oral hygiene as first line

Key is to arrest the virus & all pathogen in the nasal mucosae & oral passages as they land there & before they INFECT; the povidone-iodine 10% soln. (then diluted) as well as hydrogen peroxide FIRST

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 22

▷ LISTEN SAVE

We have positioned the nasal-oral wash now up top the early treatment algorithm for if we can keep the nasal and oral passages clear of pathogen, then we will not need to use early treatment. That is the push e.g. as an aggressive prevention, and especially as omicron (BA.4 and BA.5 clades) is so highly infectious presenting massive infectious pressure; moreover, the constant injecting with these sub-optimal vaccines that induce sub-optimal, non-neutralizing antigen-specific vaccinal antibodies that do not sterilize the virus (does not stop infection or transmission), continues to drive selection pressure, ‘selecting’ for more infectious sub-variants that are highly infectious to the vaccinee. The massive circulating virus due to the vaccinee getting infected and re-infected prevents the population from getting to herd immunity. Thus we have to now move to keep the nasal and oral passages free of virus in the first place. We want to prevent infection (using povidone iodine and hydrogen peroxide diluted, as prophylaxis).

I wanted to clue you in and to the advantages of this nasal-oral wash to keep the area hygienically clean. This is important especially for those nations and peoples who were locked down long and hard, in wait of a vaccine that has failed (does not sterilize/neutralize the virus – stop infection, replication, or transmission), and now in the midst of high infectious pressure, and are emerging from lockdown. They will be susceptible, especially the high-risk elderly, and as such we must move to eliminate the virus as it lands in the nasal-oral passages.

end

Dr. Byram Bridle, my friend, exceptional brilliant virologist, immunologist, vaccinologist, was smeared in media & academic colleagues; he is vindicated, he was right on deadly spike protein, BASTARDS

It was Bridle who woke the world up, but he was not from an Ivy league, he is not elite, he is decent excellent researcher, so he was marked for destruction; they hounded him, threatened his life even

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 21

▷ LISTEN SAVE

Bridle was hounded, smeared, slandered by his own Canadian people, government, by international so called ‘experts’, shamefully, they made his life hell, hounded his precious family. But he is vindicated. He was the first to warn the world on the devastating spike protein and tearing to the vascular walls (vascular endothelial pathogen) based on his expertise and no vaccine company, no one, save a few like myself, would defend him and support him. But now it is shown he was right.

Huge love and respect for him. I am proud to call him a brother.

COVID Chronicles

Moderna’s CMO Believes Spikes from the mRNA Vaccine Get to the Heart

In May 2021 I was interviewed on a radio show. I was asked if I thought that cases of myocarditis being diagnosed in young men shortly after receipt of Moderna’s mRNA-based COVID-19 ‘vaccine’ could be linked to the jab. I stated that I did and then began talking about the scientific basis for my concerns…

3 days ago · 198 likes · 71 comments · Dr. Byram W. Bridle

Support him, one of the best people I know, few have his integrity and character. Few can match him intellectually. And yes, while Canada is the outlier in managing COVID with China now in terms of insanity of it’s governments, Canada led by the drama teacher Trudeau, Bridle does Canada proud, while Toronto’s population still walk about outside with double masks, 95% of them. Ridiculous. Canada is engaging in a ‘negative ZERO-COVID’ policy, not ZERO-COVID, it is upping China.

Between the NDP leader J Singh and his colorful hats, the sell-out corrupted one Ford who abused and oppressed Ontarians in every way he could until he is and was caught and then thinks he has a mandate with an election win of 17% of voters given everyone is so disgusted by him, and the PM Trudeau, well, then, Canada is in crisis. Politically and globally. What Trudeau did to the peaceful ‘legal’ truckers and protestors, the lies of his government when the truckers actually showed academic scientists and doctors in Canada what real stones were, the decision he made, as a drama teacher that everyone is to be vaccinated to ‘live’ and earn a living, even to go on a train in Canada, against the science and his own health agency officials. This will go down in history as the worst ever for Canada for he hurt people, he costed lives, he suffered Canadians. People were harmed due to his decisions and he has to be legally held accountable and punished electorally.

end

FEDERAL JUDGE STRIKES DOWN FEDERAL SCHOOL MASK AND VACCINE MANDATE

federal judge in Louisiana ruled that federal government cannot require Head Start program teachers, staff & volunteers be vaccinated against COVID, nor can they require adults & students wear masks

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 21

▷ LISTEN SAVE

Today, a federal judge in Louisiana ruled that the federal government cannot require Head Start program teachers, staff and volunteers be vaccinated against COVID-19, nor can they require that adults and students wear masks. In December 2021, teacher Sandy Brick filed a lawsuit in federal court Louisiana to stop the mandate and are represented by the national law firm Liberty Justice Center and the Louisiana-based Pelican Institute for Public Policy.

“Although President Biden recently declared that the ‘pandemic is over,’ the fight to restore Americans’ individual liberties is not,” said Daniel Suhr, managing attorney at the Liberty Justice Center. “We will continue to fight for teachers like Sandy and the low-income students they serve until every illegal and unjustified mandate is wiped from the books. Today’s decision is a significant step toward undoing the injustice perpetrated against everyday Americans throughout the COVID-19 crisis.”

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

Sarah Harbison, general counsel at the Pelican Institute for Public Policy added, “Louisiana teacher Sandy Brick has been serving her students through adversity and uncertainty the last two years. Today, this decision vindicates her right to teach without sacrificing her freedom.”

Head Start programs provide school readiness support for children up to age 5 from families at or below the federal poverty level. Head Start agencies are local, largely nonprofit, or governmental providers that receive federal funding to provide services for these children. The providers received the new mandate on Nov. 30, 2021, when the Office of Head Start under the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) published an “interim final rule.” The requirement demands that teachers, staff and volunteers in Head Start programs be “fully vaccinated” by Jan. 31, 2022, or face losing their jobs. It also placed a universal mask mandate on all adults and children over two years old.

In the ruling permanently enjoining the vaccine and mask mandate in 24 states, U.S. District Court Judge Terry A. Doughty writes:

“The public interest is served by maintaining the constitutional structure and maintaining the liberty of individuals who do not want to take the COVID-19 vaccine. This interest outweighs Agency Defendants’ interests. The public has a liberty interest in not being required to take a vaccine or be fired from their jobs. The public interest must be taken into account before allowing Agency Defendants to mandate vaccines. Although vaccines arguably serve the public interest, the liberty interests of individuals mandated to take the COVID-19 vaccine outweigh any interest generated by the mandatory administration of vaccines.”

The federal government must now decide whether to appeal the Western District ruling to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, the same court that blocked the government’s vaccine mandate for private businesses.

The Head Start mandate was included in a package of COVID-related mandates announced on September 9, 2021, by President Biden. Also included in that announcement were five federal vaccine mandates, including the vaccine-or-test mandate that affected more than 80 million Americans who were privately employed. Liberty Justice Center and Pelican Institute attorneys sued the federal government to block that mandate, too. The mandate was blocked nationwide as a direct result of their lawsuit on behalf of Louisiana business owner Brandon Trosclair and six Texas CaptiveAire employees in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. It was ultimately blocked permanently by the U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022.

Brick v. Biden was filed Dec. 22, 2021, in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana, Lake Charles Division.

Memorandum Ruling, Sept. 21, 2022
Press Release, Sept. 21, 2022

SOURCE:

Federal judge strikes down federal school mask and vaccine mandate

end

Very STEEP job losses coming, “Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warns it will be ‘very challenging’ to tame inflation without steep job losses across the US economy after hiking interest rates to 3.25%”

Thank you POTUS Biden for all the misery you have brought us, seriously, thank you for no one in my lifetime in terms of administrations, have visited as much damage on America as you & your admin

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 22

▷ LISTEN SAVE

Biden: nothing to see hear folks…Look over there…remember ‘orange man bad’!

SOURCE:

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warns it will be ‘very challenging’ to tame inflation without steep job losses across the US economy after hiking interest rates to 3.25% – the highest level since 2008

Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted on Wednesday that achieving a soft landing will be ‘very challenging’
Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its policy rate 0.75 points to 3.25%, the highest since 2008
US central bank also projected rates will hit 4.4% this year and 4.6% in 2023 – higher than expected
Fed is attempting to cool down the economy to battle soaring inflation, which stands at 8.3%
Higher rates mean costlier borrowing, including mortgages and business loans, slowing growth
But by tamping down the economy, the Fed raises the risk of triggering job losses and layoffs

Economists are increasingly projecting a ‘hard landing’ marked by a sharp increase in unemployment, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted on Wednesday that achieving a soft landing will be ‘very challenging’.

‘We have always understood that restoring price stability, while achieving a relatively modest…increase in unemployment would be very challenging,’ he said.

‘No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession, or if so, how significant that recession would be,’ he added.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference Wednesday. Intensifying its fight against chronically high inflation, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by a substantial three-quarters of a point for a third straight time.

Last week, the average fixed mortgage rate topped 6 percent, its highest point in 14 years, meaning that rates on home loans are about twice as expensive as they were a year ago

Fed policymakers issued this projection showing their beliefs about the future US unemployment rate, which currently sits near at five-decade low at 3.7%. Powell said taming inflation without sharply increasing unemployment will be 'challenging'

By raising its key short-term interest rate, the Fed is attempting to cool down the economy in order to tame rampant inflation, which remains stubbornly high at 8.3% in August

VACCINE IMPACT/

Children’s Mercy Hospital in Missouri Medically Kidnaps 10-Year-Old Girl because Parents Wanted a Second Opinion

September 21, 2022 2:43 pm

Children’s Mercy Hospital in Kansas City, Missouri, has struck again, allegedly kidnapping a 10-year-old girl from her parents simply because the parents questioned her treatment and use of a questionable drug that allegedly caused their daughter’s brain to swell (encephalitis). The parents reportedly did not refuse treatment or go against the doctor’s advice, but simply wanted to take their daughter to a different hospital to get a second opinion. The doctor refused, had security guards intervene to stop them from taking their daughter home, and now the State of Missouri has taken custody of the child giving them full legal liability to experiment on her with whatever drugs they want, without getting the parents’ permission. Over the years we have covered multiple stories of medical kidnapping involving Children’s Mercy Hospital in Kansas City which has now apparently become so routine, that a Missouri State Senator has introduced a new bill to stop the hospital from kidnapping people’s children.

VACCINE INJURY/

Teens Suffer Cardiovascular Side Effects | NaturalHealth365

Inbox

Why anyone wants to give these shots to kids is a mystery.

https://www.naturalhealth365.com/pfizer-mrna-shot-causes-cardiovascular-side-effects-in-1-in-3-teens-new-study-suggests.html

Excess deaths Spain

Inbox

Turmoil growing in Spain as excessive death rate puts more pressure on a real estate market sinking in slowing economy
>
>
>

Gee, what could it be? Spain is 86% vaccinated
Excess Deaths 37% Higher Than Pre-Pandemic in Spain

September 19, 2022 by Brian Wang
Excess deaths (less than 4% of the 16% EU average excess death are Covid related) have
doubled in July, 2022 and reached 37% in Spain and over 16% on average in the European
Union. The world needs to research and determine and stop these excess deaths.
Excess mortality in the EU climbed to +16% in July 2022 from +7% in both June and May. This
was the highest value on record so far in 2022, amounting to around 53 000 additional deaths in
July this year compared with the monthly averages for 2016-2019.
If the level of excess deaths stays at the July level then this would be over 600,000 additional
deaths on an annualized basis for the European Union alone. Globally, the excess deaths could
lead to millions of deaths each year beyond what was happening before the pandemic.
The world had a total of 60 million deaths from all causes in 2021. The world had 55 million

deaths in 2019.
We do not know what the causes of the excess deaths are.
It could be a reduction in health as an after-effect of COVID or it could be a general decline in
health from other causes.
This is not just an excess over the five-year average including the 2020-2021 pandemic
timeframe but is against the pre-pandemic period. In 2020-2021, there were far more deaths
because of the COVID pandemic.
The previous spikes in excess deaths in the last two years were COVID-related. This new wave
of deaths cannot be attributed to COVID. The proximate causes of deaths are cancer, heart
ailments, diabetes and other conditions but there is no understanding why these usual things are
causing more deaths at this time.

The Safety of Hundreds of Millions Hinge on Data From 8 Mice? 1 Major Risk of Omicron Boosters Can’t Be Ignored

Trash

Really? And people will accept this ?
https://www.theepochtimes.com/8-mice-omicron-boosters_4731210.html

end

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.98612 UP 0.0030 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL RED

USA/ YEN 141.72 DOWN 2.541 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES

GBP/USA 1.1288 UP 0.0031

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.27 PTS OR 0.27%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN296.67PTS OR 1.61%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.55% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN296.67 PTS OR 1.61%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.27 PTS OR 0.27%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.55%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 159.30 PTS OR 0.58%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1670.35

silver:$19.59

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 110.66 UP 31 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.9e% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.230% DOWN 1 AND 9/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.11%// UP 7 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.20 UP 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.981% UP 9 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.98176 DOWN .0014 or 14 basis points

USA/Japan: 142.32 DOWN 1.918 OR YEN UP 192 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1253DOWN .0004 OR 4 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0022 OR 22BASIS pts to 1.3502

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 7.0780

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.0889

TURKISH LIRA: 18.36 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.230

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 18 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.696% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.633 UP 12 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 111.17 UP .83 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 81.18 PTS OR 1.12%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 223.82 POINTS OR 1.75%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 106.38 PTS OR 1.76%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 97.50OR 1.24%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 226.65PTS OR 1.03%

WTI Oil price 83.28 12: EST

Brent Oil: 90.04 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 58.97 UP 1 AND 72/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.981

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.98412 UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1262 UP .0005 or 5 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 142.341 DOWN 1.901//YEN UP 190 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3479 UP 0.0009 (CDN dollar, DOWN 9 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 83;51

Brent OIL: 90.32

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.35

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 60.69 DOWN 0 AND 9/100 ROUBLES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 107.10 PTS OR 0.35 %

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 136.19 PTS OR 1.17%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 27.42 DOWN .57 PTS (2.04)%

GLD: $155.07 DOWN 0.09 OR 0.01%

SLV/ $17.99 UP 0.03 CENTS OR 0.19%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Global Hawknado Hammers Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 04:00 PM

EU consumer confidence crashed to a record low overnight and a veritable avalanche of interventions, rate-hikes, and hawkish jawboning did nothing to provide any BTFD bids for stocks… or bonds.

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, on the day, the market shifted notably more hawkish in STIRs with Fed Terminal Rate expectations rising to 4.66% and also the subsequent rate-cut expectations being hawkishly reduced…

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury traders rejected the kneejerk bid for the long-end during yesterday’s post-FOMC chaos and puked bonds across the curve, with the long-end absolutely crushed (2Y +6bps, 10Y +17bps on the day). Post-Powell, the 30Y Yield is now up around 6bps and the 5Y yield is up around 16bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y yield traded above 4.00% all day…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, this drastic selloff had other ‘sponsors’ including the post-BoE-hike UK bond market, a heavy slate of new corporate bonds for the first time this week, an auction of Treasury inflation-protected securities later in the day and speculation that Japan’s intervention to support the yen might entail selling of Treasuries.

Yield curves steepened today, unwinding some of yesterday’s flattening. Intraday, the 30-year bond’s yield was 34 basis points lower the five-year note’s, its deepest inversion since 2000 and an incentive to exit curve-flattening wagers. The 10-year note’s yield was 58 basis points lower than the two-year note’s, within a basis point of the most since 2000.

Source: Bloomberg

10Y gilt yields exploded higher today (+19bps) to their highest since March 2011 after BoE hiked rates and promised more…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, before we leave bond-land, remember the old “total global negative-yielding debt” index? A year ago there was still some $13 trillion worth of negative-yielding bonds, with securities from 47 different countries represented. Today, that total has fallen to $1.77 trillion … and Japan is the only country left in the index.

Source: Bloomberg

US Equities tumbled around the US cash open but caught a bid late on to get The Dow back to even on the day but some very late selling took that away. Small Caps were the ugliest on the day…

The dollar index was hammered overnight as Japan intervened in the FX markets for the first time since 1998 (officially), but by the close a USD bid had re-emerged and the DXY ended unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

The Yen surged 6 handles on the intervention but had given almost half of it back by the end of the US session…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin bounced back from yesterday’s ugliness, pushing up towards $19.500…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices managed gains today, despite another pump and dump profile, with WTI stuck in a $83-86 range…

Gold ripped back up towards yesterday’s post-Powell highs today, but remains below $1700…

Finally, we note that the S&P 500 has traded below its 200-day moving average for over 100 sessions – a streak that was previously breached only during the tech bubble and the global financial crisis in the past 30 years.

Source: Bloomberg

In both of those instances, the gauge posted most of its losses after surpassing that level, with the index declining by a further 50% in 2000-2003 and 40% in 2008-2009 before troughing, they said.

“The bad news is we are still in one of the weakest seasonal windows of the year, especially in a mid-term year,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG.

“The good news is that it quickly reverses by mid-October. We think we test or break the June lows before then, which should set up a better entry point for a year-end rally.”

Additionally, as we noted earlier, that chasm between bond vol and equity vol (i.e. VIX, VVIX, SKEW/SDEX) remains extremely wide.

Nothing says this spread has to collapse, however we remain of the opinion that equities cannot hold a material, sustainable rally (5-10% equity rallies have been disappearing at lightning speed) until that MOVE index shifts back down <=100.

As long as the MOVE remains this elevated, tail risk remains elevated, and overall volatility likely remains high.

I) / EARLY MORNING// TRADING//

Stocks & Bonds Are Getting Monkeyhammered Again…

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 10:04 AM

Yesterday’s market turmoil is re-awakening in early trading after the overnight hawknado from central banks around the world (except Turkey).

US equities are extending losses, now below overnight lows with Nasdaq down almost 4% from the FOMC statement…

Bonds are getting hammered again but this time it’s the long-end that is feeling the pain as the 30Y yield explodes 13bps…

At the short-end, 2Y yields are up around 6bps, back to yesterday’s high yields…

Finally, on the longer term picture, SpotGamma suggests traders should continue to key off of the MOVE Index as the major macro indicator, and that metric remains near all time highs.

Additionally that chasm between bond vol and equity vol (i.e. VIX, VVIX, SKEW/SDEX) remains extremely wide.

As long as the MOVE remains this elevated, tail risk remains elevated, and overall volatility likely remains high.

ii) USA DATA/

Strange data: despite massive layoffs jobless claims continue to slide

(zerohedge)

Despite Mass Layoffs, Jobless Claims Continue To Slide

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 08:37 AM

It appears the mysterious Q2 labor market weakness seen in initial jobless claims data is over. The number of American filing for unemployment benefits for the first fell was 213k last week.

Continuing jobless claims also slipped from 1.401mm to 1.379mm Americans.

Non-Seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims bounced very modestly of record lows last week…

This improvement comes as economic growth weakens, stocks crash and corporate layoff announcements surge…

If the labor market is really that tight that these laid off workers are instantly finding jobs and not going on the dole, then Powell is right when he says there’s a lot more pain to come.

end

Economy is slowing and ‘potentially signaling recession,’ leading index finds

Sept. 22, 2022 at 10:13 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Leading economic index falls for the sixth month in a row

The numbers: The U.S. leading index fell in August for the sixth month in a row, “potentially signaling a recession.”

The leading index fell 0.3% last month, extending a stretch of declines that began in March

The LEI is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.1% decline.

Big picture: The economy has slowed from last year’s blistering pace. Gross domestic product, the scorecard for the economy, shrank in the first two quarters of the year.

Now the Federal Reserve is sharply raising interest rates to try to squelch the highest inflation in almost 40 years, and higher rates slow the economy. Many economists even think a recession is likely by next year.

Key details: Most of the components of the leading economic index except for new jobless claims and the interest-rate spread declined in August.

The details of the report were not entirely grim.

A measure of current economic condition edged up 0.1% while the so-called lagging index — a look of sorts in the rearview mirror — rose by 0.7%.

The report is published by the Conference Board, a private nonprofit organization.

Looking ahead: “The US LEI declined for a sixth consecutive month potentially signaling a recession,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the board.

“Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the U.S. economy and is likely to contract,” he added. “The Conference Board projects a recession in the coming quarters.

-END-

iii) USA economic commentaries

A great commentary. Zero hedge strongly believes that the Fed is wrong and that core inflation is rapidly rolling over. They explain why

(zerohedge)

The Fed Is Wrong Again: Core Inflation Rapidly Rolling Over And Will Drop To 3% By Q1

WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 – 08:00 PM

The Fed was dead wrong for the past decade in perpetuating QE long after the economic crisis had passed, but especially in 2020 and 2021 when it saw nothing but transitory inflation, and refused to step in an contain soaring prices which we are seeing today everywhere in action. And the Fed is also dead wrong now in its crusade to crush inflation – as it confirmed today when it hiked 75bps and telegraphed another 145bps of rate hikes – even if it means a grave recession.

Why is the Fed wrong again? Because besides sliding commodity prices (which will very likely soar in the very near future, especially once winter arrives in Europe and once Biden’s drain of the SPR is over), the bulk of core CPI components – and certainly some of the biggest drivers such as shelter, cars and airfares are rolling over fast.

That’s according to a new report by JPM’s Phoebe White (full note available to pro subs here), who writes that she forecasts a material softening in inflation across all of the components that have been the largest contributors of core inflation over the past year—not only vehicle prices, but rents, medical care services, and airfares as well—and last week’s hot CPI report does not change this view.

At a high level, we have seen a continued rotation in the composition of core inflation over recent months, with core services inflation accelerating from 3.7% Y/Y as of December 2021 to 6.1% as of August 2022, while core goods inflation has decelerated from 10.7% to 7.1%. Notably, even while core goods inflation continues to run hotter than core services inflation, services receive nearly triple the weight in the calculation of the core index, with the rent components alone comprising more than 40% of the basket (Exhibit 1). Thus, it is clear to see why rent inflation, which has accelerated above 6% Y/Y in recent months, is the largest contributor to core CPI inflation as of the August report: Exhibit 2 shows that the two rent measures, owners’ equivalent rent and rent of primary residence, account for 1.9%-pts and 0.7%-pts, respectively.

Let’s drill down into the data, starting start with rent inflation – which is the largest contributor to Core Inflation – and which the JPM analyst expects to peak in the next few months and roll over. Why? Take the Zillow Observed Rent Index which like the Apartment list price index (which we have discussed countless times especially when it was soaring higher), tends to lead the CPI rent measures, and this index has been softening recently.

And while JPM expects shelter inflation to break above 7% Y/Y by early next year – due to its several month delay from real-world prices – the bank also expects the pace of monthly gains to peak within the next few months. The rate of increases in the Zillow Observed Rent Index, which measures asking rents on new leases, peaked above 17% in February, but has softened to 12%
oya as of August—a notable softening, albeit still elevated versus the ~4% average pace observed prior to the pandemic. Unlike the Zillow data, the rent components in CPI track average rents across both new and existing leases. Thus fluctuations in the Zillow index slowly pass-through to official measures as the stock of leases begins to resemble the recent flow of new leases, with each percentage-point increase in the Zillow rent index preceding a 0.6%-pt cumulative increase in shelter CPI .

To be sure, one complicating dynamic that we have been highlighting is the fact that tighter monetary policy could temporarily exacerbate rental inflationary pressure, as high mortgage rates discourage home-buying. Indeed, now that no new home buyer reliant on a mortgage can possibly afford a house, they will likely have no choice but to find a rental. On the other hand, there is a limit to how high rents can go simply as a function of disposable income: outside of the top income cohort, JPM finds that rent affordability is already stretched, implying it will be difficult for rent inflation to sustain rates much above the pace of wage growth. And once neither housing nor rent is affordable, well then it becomes a political issue and Democrats will scream bloody murder – as Liz Warren already did today – and will demand Powell to start cutting rates.

Away from rents, new and used vehicles have had the next largest contributions to core CPI. And with demand softening, supply constraints easing, and raw material costs falling, JPM thinks declines in used vehicle prices are on the near-term horizon. Declines in new vehicle prices are likely to follow in 2023. In fact, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which measures the prices dealerships pay for used cars at auctions, has declined since its peak in January, with the index falling 4% in August alone, and another 2.3% over the first half of September.

When will this slowdown appear in official data: as chart 5 illustrates, the pass-through from the Mannheim index to the BLS data exhibits a 1-3 month lag, making it somewhat difficult to forecast the precise timing of inflections in the used vehicle CPI. Looking ahead, JPM expects the trend of falling used vehicle prices to continue over coming months: Chart 6 shows that the J.P Morgan Automotive Commodities Index is now down 35%, reflecting the cost-weighted average price of the commodities used to manufacture a vehicle. Used vehicle prices tend to be more sensitive to raw commodity costs compared with new vehicles, given that scrap value reflects a greater share of the overall price of a used vehicle.

The component with the next largest contributions to core CPI inflation is airline fares which is one of the more highly volatile categories of inflation. The still-high rate of airfare inflation on a year-ago basis reflects the surge observed through the spring alongside rising jet fuel prices, but this component has fallen by more than 14% since its peak in May, with prices likely to be somewhat more stable going forward.

Finally, the recent surge in health insurance inflation likely reflects, at least in part, the drop in insurance claims over a year ago, given the “retained earnings” methodology that BLS uses to calculate this component. Some utilization metrics are now tracking in line with pre-pandemic levels

Overall, when taking a deeper look at the largest contributors to core CPI inflation over the past year, JPMorgan sees clear evidence that core inflation is peaking and is likely to moderate fairly quickly on a sequential basis over the near term, falling from 6.5% in the three months through August, to about a 3.5% SAAR pace in 1Q 23 and just 3.1% in 2Q23, or essentially in line with the Fed’ target.

To be sure, the longer it takes for these dynamics to play out, the greater the risks that high inflation could become more ingrained. However, what is even more relevant is that the latest hawkish rate hike by the Fed – which guarantees that the Fed overshoots, driving a more material weakening in demand and triggering a recession — will certainly lead to even softer inflation. In other words, if the Fed halts its tightening campaign here, not only will core prices drop to where the Fed wants them, but a recession may even be averted. However, if Powell continues blindingly to hike, a crushing recession is virtually guaranteed. And since the Fed is always wrong about everything, the worst case scenario is now in play.

Much more in the full report available to pro subs in the usual place.

end

Another important read on the huge strength on the uSA dollar and the damaging effects on emerging nations

(Mises/McMaken)

Central Bankers Are Gaslighting Us About The “Strong Dollar”

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 09:25 AM

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

On February 8, the Japanese yen fell to a 24-year low against the dollar, dropping to 143 yen per dollar. Not much has changed since then with the yen hovering between 142 and 144 per dollar. In September of 2021, one only needed 109 yen to buy a dollar.

Overall, the yen has dropped 21 percent against the dollar over the past year, yet Japan’s central bank apparently has no plans to change course. Nor should we expect it to do so. Japan’s debt load has become so immense that any attempt to raise interest rates or otherwise tighten monetary conditions would prove extraordinarily painful. So, it’s no surprise the BOJ is now positioned to become the world’s last central bank clinging to negative interest rates.

It’s Not Just Japan

The yen is sliding the most among the world’s major currencies, but it’s not alone. Over the past year, the euro has fallen 14 percent against the dollar while the pound has fallen 13 percent. Even the Chinese yuan, which is subject to even more currency manipulation than the West’s central banks, has fallen against the dollar.

All of this means is we’re hearing a lot about the supposedly “strong dollar,” but not in a good way. Rather, the reputedly strong dollar is being discussed in a context of how harmful it is, and how we must explore ways to make the dollar weaker as soon as politically feasible.

Such talk must be heartily opposed, of course, as the dollar is not “too strong,” Rather, talk of the dollar’s “strength” is not really about the dollar at all. It’s about the weakness of other currencies and it’s about how other central banks have embraced monetary policy that’s even worse than that of the US’s Fed. If, say, other national governments and central banks are concerned about the dollar being too strong, those institutions are welcome to embrace policies that will strengthen their own currencies.

Instead, we’ll hear about how the Fed must “do something” to weaken the dollar through more easy money and thus stick it to Americans who hold dollars by lessening their purchasing power.

“We Didn’t Inflate Currency X Too Much, it’s All the Dollar’s Fault”

A perfect example of how this rhetoric works comes from the Bank of Japan’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in July. As the yen was really starting to slide against the dollar, he opined that “This is not so much a yen weakness as a dollar strength.” Kuroda said these words after years of negative rates, and right after the BOJ had doubled down on buying up “vast quantities of bonds” to force down interest rates and borrowing costs. Kuroda’s words also came weeks after the Swiss National Bank raised interest rates for the first time in 15 years. That was just one more example of how dovish the ECB was compared to other banks, and yet, Kuroda then manages to say with a straight face that this is all about the dollar.

This is the sort of talk we should learn to expect on the “strong dollar.” The central banks who are devaluing their currency, aren’t to blame, you see. It’s the dollar’s fault.

Other critiques of the strong are less explicit on this last point and are more just in the business of priming the pump to convince us all that a relatively less-weak dollar is a bad thing.

Blaming a “Strong” Dollar Rather than Weak, Inflated Currencies

Consider a CNN article from earlier this month titled “America’s strong dollar is hurting everyone else.” The article makes many correct factual statements. It notes that when the dollar is relatively less weak, countries with even weaker currencies will have greater trouble paying back debt denominated in dollars. There’s a whole lot of debt in the world denominated in dollars, including sovereign debt. The article also correctly notes that weaker currencies will have problems importing goods and services when payments must be made in stronger currencies. Think of the situation in Sri Lanka or Pakistan. Moreover, when a less-weak dollar is due to relatively high interest rates in the dollar zone (as is currently the case) this can mean capital flight from countries with weaker currencies: investors want dollars to invest in relatively higher-interest US securities. That’s all true, and it’s all bad news for these countries whose currencies make the dollar look good by comparison. But note how the framing is all about placing the blame for these problems on a “strong dollar” rather than on the weakness of other currencies.

As a final example, consider Friday’s article at CNBC about how a “strong dollar hurts investors.” Specifically, “A strong dollar crimps income that companies earn abroad, since money brought in in the form of weaker foreign currencies is converted into fewer dollars.” Again, this is technically true, but framing this as a “strong dollar” problem is an odd way of going about it. The real problem here isn’t that the dollar is too strong. The problem is that the investors didn’t properly anticipate the true risks involved in in investing in these other countries where central banks are at least as irresponsible as the American central bank.

In all these cases, the problem is never that the dollar is “too strong.” The problem is that other central banks are even worse, and that depreciation of other currencies are causing instability, lost wealth, and economic crises.

The fact that American central bankers—forced by populist pressure mounting over CPI price inflation in the US—have slightly reined in monetary inflation in the US is hardly a reason to beat our breasts over the supposedly Herculean strength of the US dollar. Rather, we should be focusing on “the weak euro,” “the wimpy yen,” and the “tragic Sri Lankan rupee.” Nonetheless, central bankers and their media allies are trying to gaslight us into thinking the problem is the dollar’s strength. American central bankers are guilty of much, but it’s not their fault that central bankers elsewhere are so often even more capricious.

If it all stopped there, then we might be able to just write it all off as a missed opportunity to learn the lessons of weak currency. But unfortunately, talk about a weak dollar often leads to political shenanigans. After Fed Chairman Paul Volcker substantially raised interest rates in the US in the early 1980s, the dollar became much stronger compared to foreign currencies. The alleged problems of a strong dollar soon became a popular topic among politicians, both foreign and domestic. French, German, Japanese, and British politicians then began lobbying the US government to devalue the dollar for the benefit of foreign currency. Three years later, US government politicians caved to pressure, spurred by half-baked economic orthodoxy about the alleged value of a weak currency.

American policymakers thus embraced the Plaza Accord in 1985 and the US dollar began to lose value and purchasing power soon thereafter. This, of course, came at the expense of American savers and consumers. The inflationists won, and a new generation learned that talk of a “strong dollar” is often quickly followed by calls for devaluation. It is unlikely to be any different this time

SWAMP STORIES

Appeals Court Rules DOJ Can Regain Access To Trump Raid Docs

THURSDAY, SEP 22, 2022 – 09:05 AM

A three-judge panel on a federal appeals court on Wednesday granted a DOJ request to allow its investigators to regain access to roughly 100 documents bearing classification markings seized during an August 8 raid on former President Donald Trump’s Florida residence.

“For our part, we cannot discern why [Trump] would have an individual interest in or need for any of the one-hundred documents with classification markings, said Judges Robin Rosenbaum, Britt Grant and Andrew Brasher (the latter two of whom were appointed by Trump). “Classified documents are marked to show they are classified, for instance, with their classification level.”

According to the judges, Trump “has not even attempted to show that he has a need to know the information contained in the classified documents,” according to the decision.

“In any event, at least for these purposes, the declassification argument is a red herring because declassifying an official document would not change its content or render it personal,” the panel continued. “So even if we assumed that [Trump] did declassify some or all of the documents, that would not explain why he has a personal interest in them.”

Last week the DOJ asked the 11th Circuit to intervene after US District Judge Aileen Cannon, another Trump appointee, denied their request to restore access to the roughly 100 records marked classified, which were found among the 11,000 documents seized during the raid.

In their appeal to the Atlanta-based court, Justice Department lawyers argued Cannon’s order “hamstrings” its criminal probe and irreparably harms the government by blocking “critical steps of an ongoing criminal investigation and compelling disclosure of highly sensitive records,” including to Trump’s lawyers. They also warned Cannon’s temporary ban keeping investigators from using the materials for investigative purposes “impedes the government’s efforts to protect the nation’s security.”

The former president’s legal team urged the 11th Circuit to turn down the Justice Department’s request to regain access to the sensitive documents, reiterating its characterization of the court fight as a “document storage dispute that has spiraled out of control.” The federal probe into Trump, his lawyers James Trusty and Christopher Kise told the court, is “unprecedented and misguided.” -CBS News

As Jonathan Turley notes, this move was not unexpected – and was the “smart move” by the DOJ to first seek access to this subset of documents with classified markings.

Trump, meanwhile, gave an hour-long interview with Fox News‘s Sean Hannity, in which the former president suggested that he could declassify any or all documents “with a thought” – a position Turley thinks is likely to further alienate both the appellate court and the Special Master appointed by Judge Cannon, both of whom have expressed frustration at Trump’s team for failing to articulate support for their declassification claims.

27 comments

FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS THERE HAVE BEEN ZERO SALES ON THE 10 YR JAPANESE BOND – altnews.org · September 23, 2022 - 12:05 pm · Reply→

[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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SEPT 26/BLOODBATH AGAIN IN THE PRECIOUS MARKETS//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $17.15 TO $1627.15//SILVER IS DOWN 43 CENTS TO $18.46//PLATINUM IS DOWN $8.90 TO $855.10//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $14.55 TO $2055.55//BRITISH POUND COLLAPSES AGAIN//EURO COLLAPSES//COVID UPDATES/ · September 26, 2022 - 8:55 pm · Reply→

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SEPT 27/GOLD PRICE UP $1.75 TO $1628.90//SILVER PRICE DOWN 7 CENTS TO $18.39//PLATINUM PRICE DOWN $4.10 TO $851.00/PALLADIUM PRICE UP $21.45 TO $2078.00//EXPLOSIONS UNDER THE SEA CAUSES ALL NATURAL GAS FLOWS TO STOP: SUSPECTED SABOTAGE//THIS WILL HURT FLO · September 27, 2022 - 9:10 pm · Reply→

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SEPT 29//FALLOUT FROM YESTERDAY’S B.O.E. PIVOT CONTINUES TO REVERBERATE AROUND THE GLOBE WITH STOCK MARKETS PLUNGING//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $.85 TO $1660.35 AND SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TO $18.76 WITH OPTIONS EXPIRY TOMORROW//USA GIVES ANOTHER $1.1 BILLION I · September 29, 2022 - 9:23 pm · Reply→

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SEPT 30/FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR GOLD/SILVER CONTRACTS AT THE COMEX: GOLD CLOSED UP $3.75 TO $1664.35//SILVER CLOSED UP $31 TO $19.07//PLATINUM CLOSED UP 40 CENTS TO $867.30//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $33.55 TO $2182.85//MUST READ: TED BUTLER ON THE MANIPULATION · September 30, 2022 - 9:20 pm · Reply→

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OCT 3/SPEC SHORTS CAUGHT OFF SIDE AS GOLD AND SILVER RALLY BIG TIME: GOLD RISES $29.30 TO $1693.40//SILVER UP A HUGE $1.46 TO $20.53//PLATINUM UP $35.30 TO $902.60//PALLADIUM UP $58.00 TO $2240.40//PREMIUS ON PHYSICAL SILVER RISING TO BETWEEN $9.50 AND $1 · October 3, 2022 - 9:14 pm · Reply→

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OCT 4/GOLD CLOSED UP $28.65 TO $1722.05//SILVER CLOSED UP 51 CENTS TO $21.04//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $29.10 TO $931.70//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $68.85//IMPORTANT READS: MATHEW PIEPENBURG//MALINEN: BANKING CRISIS UPON US//UK MORTGAGE REPAYMENT SCHEDULE MUCH HIGHER · October 4, 2022 - 9:11 pm · Reply→

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OCT 4/GOLD CLOSED UP $28.65 TO $1722.05//SILVER CLOSED UP 51 CENTS TO $21.04//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $29.10 TO $931.70//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $68.85//IMPORTANT READS: MATHEW PIEPENBURG//MALINEN: BANKING CRISIS UPON US//UK MORTGAGE REPAYMENT SCHEDULE MUCH HIGHER · October 4, 2022 - 9:16 pm · Reply→

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OCT 6/2022//GOLD AND SILVER HOLD ON AN ATTEMPTED RAID: GOLD CLOSES UP $.70 TO $1712.40//SILVER UP 11 CENTS TO $20.61//PLATINUM DOWN $5.70 TO $925.50//PALLADIUM DOWN $31.05 TO $2278.80//BANKERS DIRECT GOLD AWAY FROM GOLD STARVED INDIA: GREAT NEWS FOR GOLD/ · October 6, 2022 - 9:14 pm · Reply→

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OCT 7//JOBS REPORT (FAKE) SENDS GOLD AND SILVER DOWN: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $10.70 TO $1701.70//SILVER IS DOWN 37 CENTS TO $20.01//PLATINUM IS DOWN $6.40 TO $919.10//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $82.35 TO $2195.65//ALASDAIR MACLEOD A MUST VIEW KINESIS 94 REPORT//JOBS REP · October 7, 2022 - 9:06 pm · Reply→

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OCT 7//JOBS REPORT (FAKE) SENDS GOLD AND SILVER DOWN: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $10.70 TO $1701.70//SILVER IS DOWN 37 CENTS TO $20.01//PLATINUM IS DOWN $6.40 TO $919.10//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $82.35 TO $2195.65//ALASDAIR MACLEOD A MUST VIEW KINESIS 94 REPORT//JOBS REP · October 7, 2022 - 9:41 pm · Reply→

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OCT 10.2022: THIN MARKET CONDITIONS DUE TO COLUMBUS DAY HOLIDAY CAUSES PRECIOUS METALS TO FALL: GOLD FALLS BY $33.50 TO $1668.20//SILVER DROPS 65 CENTS TO $19.59//PLATINUM IS DOWN $19.65 TO $899.65//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $39.40 TO $2156.25//FIRST UKRAINE BOMB · October 10, 2022 - 9:07 pm · Reply→

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OCT 11//GOLD CLOSED UP $10.30 TO $1678.50//SILVER IS DOWN 11 CENTS TO $19.48//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $4.65 TO $904.30//PALLADIUM FLAT AT $2156.75// BANK OF ENGLAND MAYHEM: FIRST PIVOTS AGAIN AS GILT YIELDS RISE AGAIN: PROBLEMS WITH PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE · October 11, 2022 - 8:57 pm · Reply→

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OCT 12//GOLD CLOSED UP $4.00 TO $1670.70//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 18 CENTS TO $18.99//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $15.90 TO $888.40//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $24.60 TO $2131.65//B.OF E’S BAILEY PLAYING THE GAME OF CHICKEN WITH BRITISH GOVERNMENT: WE WILL KNOW WHO WINS · October 12, 2022 - 9:02 pm · Reply→

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OCT 13//MANIPULATION CONTINUES UNABATED//CPI CONTINUES TO BE RED HOT FORCES MARKETS INITIALLY SOUTHBOUND BUT TRUMPED NEW MODEL SUGGESTED TERMINAL RATE IN EUROPE AT 2.5%//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $.40 TO $1670.30//SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TO $18.97//PLATINUM UP $3.20 T · October 13, 2022 - 9:00 pm · Reply→

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OCT 14//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $26.50 TO $1643.80//SILVER IS DOWN 77 CENTS TO $18.20//PLATINUM IS DOWN $6.01 TO $901.40//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $113.75 TO $2006.80..UK’S TRUSS SACKS CHANCELLOR KWARTANG AS WELL AS REVERSE TAX CUTS//EUROPE UPDATES ON FOOD SUPPLY · October 14, 2022 - 8:30 pm · Reply→

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OCT 17//GOLD CLOSED UP $14.55 TO $1658.25//SILVER WAS UP 53 CENTS TO $18.73//PLATINUM WAS UP $17.55 TO $919.25//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN 35 CENTS TO $2006.45//BIDEN’S BAN ON CHIP EXPORTS PLAYING HAVOC TO CHINA’S ECONOMY//AS PER UK, BAILEY HAS STOPPE · October 17, 2022 - 9:08 pm · Reply→

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OCT 18/GOLD PRICE FALLS $7.40 TO $1650.25/SILVER FALLS 5 CENTS TO $18.68//PLATINUM DOWN $6.80 TO $919.25//PALLADIUM UP $9.25 TO $2016.20//CITIZENS OF TURKEY PURCHASE A HUGE 39 TONNES OF GOLD LAST MONTH AS THEIR LIRA HAS DEPRECIATED CONSIDERABLY///JAPAN · October 18, 2022 - 8:14 pm · Reply→

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OCT 18/GOLD PRICE FALLS $7.40 TO $1650.25/SILVER FALLS 5 CENTS TO $18.68//PLATINUM DOWN $6.80 TO $919.25//PALLADIUM UP $9.25 TO $2016.20//CITIZENS OF TURKEY PURCHASE A HUGE 39 TONNES OF GOLD LAST MONTH AS THEIR LIRA HAS DEPRECIATED CONSIDERABLY///JAPAN · October 18, 2022 - 8:33 pm · Reply→

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ANOTHER PAPER GOLD/SILVER RAID: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $20.65 TO $1630.20//SILVER IS DOWN 27 CENTS TO $18.41//PLATINUM IS DOWN 24.10 TO $888.75//PALLADIUM IS DOWN 20.15 TO $1997.45//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE INJURY//VACCINE IMPACT//IMPORTANT ART · October 19, 2022 - 9:23 pm · Reply→

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OCT 19//ANOTHER PAPER GOLD/SILVER RAID: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $20.65 TO $1630.20//SILVER IS DOWN 27 CENTS TO $18.41//PLATINUM IS DOWN 24.10 TO $888.75//PALLADIUM IS DOWN 20.15 TO $1997.45//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE INJURY//VACCINE IMPACT//IMPOR · October 19, 2022 - 11:02 pm · Reply→

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OCT 20//ANOTHER GOLD AND SILVER MANIPULATIVE DAY: GOLD CLOSED UP $2.40 TO $1632.40//SILVER WAS UP 33 CENTS TO $18.74//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $27.45 TO $916.20//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $66.50//JAMES TURK; A MUST READ!//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE MAN · October 20, 2022 - 8:55 pm · Reply→

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OCT 21//GOLD REVERSES COURSE RISING $19.10 UP TO $1651.50//SILVER UP 43 CENTS TO $19.17//PLATINUM CLOSES UP $17.90 TO $934.60//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $45.07 TO $2018.25//JAPAN CENTRAL BANK CAPITULATES AND INTERVENES TO STOP THE FALL IN THE YEN//A MUST READ: AL · October 21, 2022 - 8:53 pm · Reply→

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OCT 21//GOLD REVERSES COURSE RISING $19.10 UP TO $1651.50//SILVER UP 43 CENTS TO $19.17//PLATINUM CLOSES UP $17.90 TO $934.60//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $45.07 TO $2018.25//JAPAN CENTRAL BANK CAPITULATES AND INTERVENES TO STOP THE FALL IN THE YEN//A MUST READ: AL · October 21, 2022 - 9:46 pm · Reply→

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OCT 24/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $1.80 TO $1649.70//SILVER CLOSED UP 6 CENTS TO $19.23//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $12.35 TO $922.25//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $48,50 TO $1969.75//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//VACCINE INJURIES//UK UPDATES: SUNAK THE LIKELY PRI · October 24, 2022 - 9:09 pm · Reply→

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