DEC 15//ANOTHER RAID ON GOLD/SILVER//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $29.20 TO $1778.20//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 74 CENTS TO $23.11//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $24.55 TO $1007.50//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $121.85 TO $1796.55//COVID UPDATES//RON DESANTIS FORMS GRAND JURY ACCUSING PHARMACEUTICAL GIANTS OF CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//VACCINE INJURY//USA, UK AND ECB ALL RAISE THEIR RATES BY 50 BASIS POINTS//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA WITH UK ADMITTING IT HAD BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN THE UKRAINE//USA RETAIL SALES PLUMMET/ALSO INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
072 C GOLDMAN 1 118 C MACQUARIE FUT 13 190 H BMO CAPITAL 164 323 C HSBC 20 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 197 523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 893 661 C JP MORGAN 544 21 685 C RJ OBRIEN 1 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 700 C UBS 2 737 C ADVANTAGE 1 800 C MAREX SPEC 2 15 880 C CITIGROUP 21 905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 949 949
COMEX//NOTICES FILED re JPMorgan 39/144
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC. CONTRACT: 449 NOTICES FOR 44,900 OZ or 2.951 TONNES
total notices so far: 19,741 contracts for 1,974,100 oz (61.402 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 16 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 80,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 3564 for 17,820,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $29.20
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////HUGE CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES TONNES OUT IF THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.74
AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV THESE PAST 3 WEEKS! A LOSS OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 510.000 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
NOTE EXACT NUMBERS!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 522 CONTRACTS TO 126,077 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.07 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.07 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED GAINED IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 888 CONTRACTS. AS WELL WE HAD EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER OF 0 CONTRACTS. WE HAD SOME ATTEMPTED SPEC SHORT COVERINGS OF THEIR SHORTFALL. .WE PROBABLY HAD ZERO SHORT ADDITIONS WITH THE PRICE RISE OF THE SILVER. // OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT CONTRACTS>>> SOME INCREASE OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS CAUSING ADDITIONAL MISERY TO OUR SHORTERS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 23 .24. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON of 500,000 OZ // V) GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL —46
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 days, total 6849 contracts: OR 34.745 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (526 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 34.745 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 34.745 MILLION OZ INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 522 WITH OUR $0.07 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 381 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 23.24 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY:S 450,000 E,F,P. JUMP //NEW STANDING 23.480 MILLION OZ + EFR = 33.980 MILLION OZ. .. WE HAVE AN HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 949 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 4.745 MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS.
WE HAD 16 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 80,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 706 CONTRACTS TO 436,334 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 279 CONTRACTS.
.
THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC. AT 58.86 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY:S HUGE QUEUE JUMP of 892 contracts or 89,200 oz//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 62.659 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS PRICE OF $6.20 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 888 OI CONTRACTS (2.737 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1586 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 436,334
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 888 CONTRACTS WITH 706 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX (SHORT SPECULATORS FAILING TO GET OUT OF THEIR MESS) AND 1586 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 888 CONTRACTS OR 2.737 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1586 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (706) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 888 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) ATTEMPTED SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS WITH SMALL SUCCESS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY PAPER SHORT. WE HAD SOME SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // SMALL NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC. AT 58.86 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP of 89,200 oz// //NEW STANDING 62,659 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :
29,386 CONTRACTS OR 2,938,600 OZ OR 91.40 TONNES 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2260 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:91.40 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 91.40/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.57% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 91.40 tonnes Initial
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 522 CONTRACTS OI TO 126,077 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 381 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 381 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 381 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 522 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 381 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN AN HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 903 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.515 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.07….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.80 PTS OR 0.25% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 304.88 OR 1.55% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 104.51 OR 0.37% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.65% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.9680//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9673// /Oil UP TO 77,71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 82.63 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY SMALL SIZED 706 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 436,334 WITH OUR THE LOSS IN PRICE..$6.20
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1586 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 FEB: 1586 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:1586 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 888 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1586 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 706 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $6.20. WE ARE WITNESSING SOME SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS TO THEIR SHORTFALL. BANKERS CONTINUE AS NET BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WE ALSO HAD SOME NEWBIE SPECS ADDITIONS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING DEC (62.659)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)
Dec. 62.659 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $6.20) //// ( AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 888 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES >. WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AND ZERO SPEC SHORT COVERINGS.. // WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 2.737 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC. (54.57 TONNES), following our queue jump of 89,200 oz//new standing 62.659 tonnes…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.20
WE HAD – 279 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 888 CONTRACTS OR 88,800 OZ OR 2.737 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 179,427// poor//
final gold volumes/yesterday 149,621/ poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR DECEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //DEC 15
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
19,741 notices 1,974,100 61.402 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 1
i)Into Brinks 32.15 oz
i kilobar
total deposits 32.15 oz
customer withdrawals:1
i)Brinks: 4469.65 oz
Total withdrawals: 4469.65 oz
total in tonnes: .1390 tonnes
Adjustments: 1
i) Out of Manfra 1929.06 oz/customer to dealer
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER.
For the front month of DECEMBER we have an oi of 1353 contracts having GAINED 748 contracts
We had 144 contracts served on Wednesday, so we gained A HUGE 892 contracts or an additional 12,000 oz will stand for gold at the COMEX. We will gain in gold tonnage from this day forth.
The comex is running out of physical gold to serve our good friends over in London
JANUARY LOST 17 contracts to stand at 1298
February LOST 1426 contacts to 371,527
We had 449 notice(s) filed today for 44,900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 544 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 949 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 21 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC. /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (19,741 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (DEC. 1353 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 949 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,064,500 OZ OR 62.659 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of DEC.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month:
No of notices filed so far (19,741 x 100 oz+ (1353 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (949} x 100 oz} which equals 2,064,500 oz standing OR 62.659 TONNES in this active delivery month of DEC..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 64.214 TONNES (A POOR STANDING//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3564 x 5,000 oz = 17,820,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(1148) and the number of notices served upon today 16 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC./2022 contract month: 3564 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (1148 – number of notices served upon today (16) x 500 oz of silver standing for the DEC. contract month equates 23.480 million oz.. Also we have another criminal element to our silver oz standing, the use of Exchange for Risk/ Today an addition of 0 EFR contract transfers which are “Exchange for risk” settlements. I do not want to bore you but needless to say they are not physical transfers so are criminal in nature. There have been 2100 Exchange for Risk contracts settled these past 8 days for 10.500 million oz. Thus total delivery: 33.980 million oz.
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 8/WITH GOLD UP $34.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//: INVENTORY RESTS AT 905.49 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.95: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.96. TONNES
NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.
NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.
NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES
OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//
OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES
OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES
OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 911.56 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//
NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.751 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.929 MILLION OZ//
NOV 7/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//
NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//
NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ
OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//
OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.
OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/
OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//
OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///
OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//
OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//
OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 510.000 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Schiff: The Fed Hikes Rates To Highest Level Since 2007; That’s A Big Problem
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. That pushed the federal funds rate to 4.5%. The last time rates were this high was in 2007. That’s bad news for an economy addicted to easy money.
While the pace of rate hikes slowed, the messaging coming out of the Fed was substantially the same as the November meeting.
The official FOMC statement was nearly identical to the November statement. The committee only made some slight changes to the verbiage describing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global economy.
The messaging relating to the future trajectory of monetary policy was unchanged. The statement said the committee “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.” It also said the committee will continue to take into account “cumulative tightening” and “the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation” as it makes future decisions.
As he did after the November meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sounded a hawkish tone. He said, “We have more work to do,” and emphasized that rates would move higher and stay higher longer than initially anticipated.
My view and my colleagues’ view is that this will take some time. We have a long ways to go to get back to price stability.”
Powell also dismissed the notion that the central bank might cut rates next year.
Powell claimed that the Fed has now pushed interest rates into “restrictive” territory. But it’s unclear how he arrived at this conclusion. With CPI still over 7%, real interest rates remain negative. That means the Fed continues to run an accommodative monetary policy. Yes, the Fed has tightened significantly, but it is still behind the inflation curve. In effect, it has slowed the flow of gasoline onto the inflationary fire, but it continues to pour gasoline on the inflationary fire.
When asked about the pain of inflation, Powell said Americans would suffer worse pain if the central bank failed to act and let inflation run out of control. In a tweet, Peter Schiff said that is a moot point.
Inflation is already out of control and the time for the Fed to have acted to prevent it without triggering a severe financial crisis has long since past.”
Nevertheless, Powell continued to hold out hope for a “soft landing,” meaning he thinks the Fed can defeat inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. But despite his optimism, he confessed he doesn’t really know the trajectory of the economy.
I don’t think anyone knows whether we’re going to have a recession or not, and if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not. It’s not knowable.”
The Fed’s Problem
I disagree with Powell’s assertion about a recession. I think it’s a virtual certainty that the economy will spiral into a downturn. And I don’t think it will be short and shallow. I think it will be deep and prolonged.
My pessimism is rooted in the fact that the US economy is addicted to easy money. It is addicted to artificially low interest rates and quantitative easing. You can’t take an addict’s drug away without sending him into withdrawal.
As already noted, interest rates haven’t been this high since 2007. At that point, the Fed was cutting rates due to the housing bust. The economy couldn’t handle interest rates that high.
Rates peaked at 5.25% in 2006. That precipitated the housing bust and ultimately the financial crisis in 2008. Today, the Fed has pushed rates within 1% of that level. But there is a major difference between then and now. The bubbles are bigger. There is more debt. There is more malinvestment. If the extent of the bust is commensurate with the extent of the boom, we’re due for a doozy.
Powell and Company have backed themselves into a corner. They just don’t know it yet (or more likely, they haven’t admitted it).
Now, that doesn’t mean the Fed shouldn’t be raising rates. They should be. They should have raised them a lot more than they have. The problem is they never should have cut them. That was the mistake — it was cutting rates. Raising them back up is really just an acknowledgment of that mistake. But what happens is when the Fed raises rates, it uncovers all of the problems that it created when it reduced rates. Because when it slashed interest rates to zero, it inflated a bubble economy, and it inflated it with inflation. Quantitative easing was inflation.”
In a recent Bloomberg article, a group of economists voiced their fears that the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight may create an unnecessarily deep downturn. However, the Federal Reserve does not create a downturn due to rate hikes; it creates the foundations of a crisis by unnecessarily lowering rates to negative territory and aggressively increasing its balance sheet. It is the malinvestment and excessive risk-taking fuelled by cheap money that lead to a recession.”
In other words, the Fed sealed its fate when it cranked rates down to zero and ran some $5 trillion in QE.
The Fed is a pusher and it has been slowly cranking down the amount of drugs it’s giving to the addict. The addict is already feeling the pain. But the addict is hoping against hope it will get a bigger fix soon. That’s why the markets react with glee every time we get bad economic news or good news on the inflation front. The addict thinks that means the Fed will go back to the status quo – pushing the drugs.
But today, the Fed actually cranked down the drug level even lower. No matter what the pusher says, you can’t take away an addict’s drugs without causing pain. And at some point, the addict is going to go into full-blown withdrawal.
The question is what does the Fed do when this happens? How will it respond when it can no longer plausibly deny the economic chaos? Does it give the addict its drug? Or does it let the addict die?
Powell wants you to believe it will hold course and make the addict go through the pain necessary to get cleaned up. He claims the Fed won’t cut rates in 2023. But that tune can quickly change when the addict starts writing and screaming in pain. And history tells a different story. The Fed’s modus Operandi is to go right back to rate cuts and QE when the economy tanks.
Why should we believe it will be different this time?
Price inflation as measured by CPI has shown some signs of cooling. But a return to loose monetary policy is a return to inflationary policy.
So, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. It can make the addict suffer a lot of pain and maybe even kill him. Or it can crank up the drugs again.
Neither scenario is particularly good.
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
end
LAWRIE WILLIAMS:
12 Dec 2022
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Same song, third verse
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-12-14 11:38Section: Daily Dispatches
11:35a ET Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing today at Sprott Money, begins to outline his gold forecast for the new year, and he thinks gold’s performance will be like its performance in 2019 and 2010 — something gold owners probably won’t complain about. Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Same Song, Third Verse” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
Surging inflation is causing investors all over the world to buy Austrian gold coins
(Reuters/GATA)
Inflation, uncertainty fuel new gold rush at ancient Austrian Mint
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-12-14 19:33Section: Daily Dispatches
By Francois Murphy Reuters Wednesday, December 14, 2022
VIENNA, Austria — The Austrian Mint, one of the world’s oldest and biggest producers of gold bullion coins, is unable to keep up with demand as people rush to find a safe haven for their money amid surging inflation and economic fears caused by war in Ukraine.
“Demand for gold has never been as high as this year,” the Mint’s Chief Executive Gerhard Starsich, told Reuters in his ornate office in a Vienna building where coins have been struck since the 1830s. Behind its quiet facade lies a warren of workshops where modern machines melt metals and thump out money.
“At the moment, every gold coin that comes off the coining press has already been sold,” Starsich said. “Right now we could sell three times as many as we are able to produce.”
The Mint’s shop, a modern corner of the building, has had a long queue outside daily for months. Among those standing in line was pensioner Renate, one of the few willing to talk about her purchasing habits.
“I’m from an older generation. Whenever things get a bit uncertain, we come back to gold coins and tell ourselves we’ll always be able to sell them,” she said. “Gold has that safety factor.”
Starsich said customers were of all ages and from all walks of life. Around a third of the Mint’s sales are to foreign buyers.
The Mint was founded in 1194 to strike coins from the silver paid as a ransom for Richard the Lionheart, after he had been seized and held captive by enemies near Vienna. …
White House will not say whether Biden will return donations from FTX
(zerohedge)
“I Cannot Speak To This”: White House Won’t Say Whether Biden Will Return Donations From FTX’s Bankman-Fried
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 08:50 AM
With Sam Bankman-Fried now officially in custody for allegedly swindling his investors out of “at least $1.8 billion”, questions have begun to swirl about whether or not campaign donations made by the former FTX CEO would be returned to the company, which is now trying to manage a bankruptcy.
In focus over the last few days has been campaign contributions that SBF made for President Biden’s 2020 campaign.
When asked about whether or not the Biden campaign would return 2020 contributions from Bankman-Fried, “White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre wouldn’t say Tuesday whether President Biden” would ask aides to return the cash, the NY Post reported.
Associated Press reporter Zeke Miller asked her: “The president received campaign donations [from Bankman-Fried]. Will the president return that donation? Does he call on all politicians … to return those funds?”
“So look, I’m covered here by the Hatch Act — [I’m] limited on what I can say and anything that’s connected to political contributions from here, I would have to refer you to the DNC,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre answered.
Miller followed up, stating: “I’m asking the president’s opinion, though.”
But the press secretary continued to dodge the question, stating: “You asked me two questions: You asked me about will he return donations and then you asked me about his opinion. I’m answering the first part, which is I’m covered by the Hatch Act from here. I’m limited on what I can say. And I just can’t talk to political contributions or anything related to that — I cannot speak to that from here.”
“I just cannot speak to this from here, even his thoughts,” she continued. “Even his opinion, even his thoughts about the contributions, donations, I cannot speak about that from here.”
Bankman-Fried is now well known to be one of the Democratic party’s largest donors, and the Post reports that he even had the chance to meet with Biden’s White House advisers prior to the collapse of his firm.
As Fox News notes, SBF sent $262,200 to Republicans throughout the 2021-2022 election cycle – a figure that pales compared to the $40 million he contributed to Democratic campaigns.
end
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS/THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.9680
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9673
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.80 PTS OR 0.25%
HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 304.88 OR 1.55%
2. Nikkei closed UP 104.51 PTS OR 0.37%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.82 Euro FALLS TO 10642 DOWN 33 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.55/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.022%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.012%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.07…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.94//
3j Gold at $1776.90//silver at: 23.17 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 47/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 64.46//
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.55 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9282–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9878 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.484% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.532% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,65…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.2815%
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Slide As Hawkish Fed Halts Global Risk Rally
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 07:56 AM
US futures extended declines on Thursday following hawkish signs from the Federal Reserve that it would keep rates higher for longer even as it pushed the US economy into a stagflationary recession. Contracts on the technology heavy Nasdaq 100 were down 1.3% by 7:45 a.m. in New York, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.9% after dropping as much as 1.1% earlier. Both underlying indexes dropped yesterday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a 50-basis-point rate hike, as expected, and said the central bank had more work to do – and will push the terminal rate to 5.1% or higher – in taming inflation despite ebbing price pressures and mounting fears of job losses.
Demand for haven assets sent the dollar and Swiss franc higher amid a wave of rate hikes from Taiwan to Norway. Britain’s pound extended losses after an expected half-point rate hike by the Bank of England, while the euro fell before the European Central Bank’s decision.
A global rally sparked by softer-than-forecast US inflation came to a sudden end on Wednesday after policymakers signaled a peak rate that was far above market expectations and sought to dispel hopes for a rate cut next year. Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank won’t back away from its fight against inflation despite mounting fears of job losses and a recession.
“The Fed was more hawkish than markets had expected,” Jack McIntyre, a money manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, wrote in a note. “They seemingly still want financial markets to tighten further, which essentially means they want lower equity prices.”
Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard Asset Management, said that although the Fed has started to slow the pace of rate hikes, “that doesn’t mean smooth sailing ahead” for markets. “The effects of the tightening in 2022 will continue to be felt in 2023 through a weaker labor market, recession in Europe and potentially a recession in the US. The earnings hit from a recession is not priced into equity markets,” he said. And while prevailing post-FOMC sentiment among the skeleton crew of traders on Thursday was grim, Paul Kim, chief executive officer at Simplify ETFs, said a “vacuum of catalysts until the next Fed meeting in February” could also help markets continue their rebound over the next few weeks.
The Swiss franc held its gain after the nation’s central bank doubled the policy rate to 1% as forecast. China’s yuan fell as poor economic data and a surge in Covid cases weighed.
In premarket trading Tesla slumped again after CEO Elon Musk sold shares for the fourth time this year. Musk sold almost 22 million shares for $3.58 billion, according to filing late Wednesday. Bitcoin miner Core Scientific surged after one of its largest creditors B. Riley Financial issued an open letter Wednesday laying out a proposal for the company to avoid bankruptcy. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Novavax shares drop 10% after the biotechnology firm offered $125m of shares and $125m of convertible bonds, and said its agreement to supply Covid vaccines to the UK had been halved.
Verizon stock rises 0.6% as Morgan Stanley upgrades it to overweight and downgrades AT&T (T US) to equal-weight, saying in a note that North American telecom services sector faces a balanced outlook heading into next year.
Keep an eye on Nvidia as it was initiated with a reduce recommendation at HSBC, which says the near-term chip inventory correction and demand uncertainty will overshadow the company’s potential in autos and artificial intelligence segments.
Watch Madison Square Garden Entertainment as Morgan Stanley upgrades the stock to equal-weight based on recent underperformance and proposed spin of traditional live entertainment business.
Defense stocks may be in focus after Morgan Stanley upgraded L3Harris (LHX US) to overweight, downgraded Lockheed Martin to equal-weight and maintained overweight and top pick status on Northrop Grumman (NOC US).
Across the Atlantic, investors were gearing up for another day of central bank meetings with the European Central Bank set to announce its rate decisions later on Thursday. Europe’s equity benchmark, the Stoxx 600, fell the most since Oct. 7 on a closing basis; the Stoxx 50 slumped 1.3%. FTSE 100 outperforms peers, dropping 0.5% ahead of a decision by the ECB which hiked rates by 50bps, to the highest since 2008; the BOE is also on deck. Consumer products, tech and retailers are the worst performing sectors. Here are some of the most notable European movers:
Juventus shares gain as much as 8.1% in Milan to lead gains on the FTSE Italia All-Share Index. Equita notes a report saying that Exor would be thinking of a delisting of the football club, adding that it doesn’t rule out this “could be a viable option.”
Ackermans & van Haaren rises as much as 4.2% after Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Andre Mulder raised the recommendation to buy from hold.
Zotefoams climbs as much as 7.7% after the UK foam-maker said pretax profit for 2022 is likely to come in ahead of market expectations.
European luxury stocks underperform as new economic data from China disappointed and Bryan Garnier cut its price target for Kering on an expected double-digit drop in fourth-quarter sales for key brand Gucci. Kering falls as much as 5.6%, LVMH as much as 2.4%
H&M drops as much as 4.7% after the apparel retailer reported quarterly sales which analysts said were in line with expectations, noting the lack of margin commentary. Focus has shifted to next month’s results, when there’ll be more clarity on margins.
Currys falls as much as 10% to the lowest since Oct. 13 after the UK electronics retailer cut its profit guidance for the year. The stock may see further short-term pressure, according to Liberum, which lowered its price target.
Ceconomy sinks as much as 11%, most since July, after the electronics retailer’s earnings. Analysts flag a vague outlook and potential margin pressure.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined as the Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates, while a disappointing set of economic data from China soured sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.4%, led by consumer discretionary and technology shares. Most markets in the region were in the red, with Hong Kong and South Korea among the worst performers. A surprisingly hawkish tone by the Fed after an expected half-point hike fueled risk-off mood across Asia. Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed had a “ways to go” in its campaign to rein in inflation. Policymakers projected rates would end next year at 5.1%, higher than previously indicated.
Chinese benchmarks fell, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropping more than 1%, as the nation’s economic activity worsened in November. There will likely be more disruption to growth as infections surge after the government abruptly dropped its Zero-Covid policy. “A broad-based miss in activity data could be attributed to the pre-Zero-Covid relaxation days, but challenges lie ahead as well with full reopening likely to be delayed by a large chunk of workers calling in sick as infections spread,” said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. The Asian stock benchmark may halt a six-week gaining streak if losses extend into Friday. The region’s shares had rallied since November following China’s Covid pivot and amid hopes of a more dovish Fed — with the latter getting a rude awakening from Wednesday’s meeting.
Japanese stocks followed US shares lower after the Federal Reserve signaled interest rates will climb higher than anticipated next year. The Topix Index fell 0.2% to 1,973.90 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei declined 0.4% to 28,051.70. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 1.8%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 1,082 rose and 935 fell, while 146 were unchanged. “Although it was hawkish, in a sense the content of the press conference gave the impression of a flexible stance,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, strategist at Asset Management One. “They would look to inflation data rather than just raising interest rates as they have done in the past.”
In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index rose by as much as 0.7% as the greenback advanced versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. Risk- sensitive Antipodean and Scandinavian currencies were the worst performers.
The euro fell for the first day in three but held above the $1.06 handle. Bunds twist-flattened while Italian bonds bear flattened as money markets added somewhat to ECB peak-rate wagers after the Fed’s policy tightening yesterday
Norway’s krone held losses against the dollar and the euro after Norges Bank raised the deposit rate to 2.75%, in line with estimates, and kept its rate projection steady for next year
The Swiss franc swung to a loss against the dollar after the SNB hiked its interest rate by 50bps, to 1%, matching the median estimate
The pound slid amid broad-based dollar strength. The BOE hiked by the expected half-point; cable was generally flat after the decision.
Australian dollar declined amid poor Chinese data that showed economic activity worsened in November before the government abruptly dropped its Covid Zero policy. Bonds fell after data showed the economy added 64,000 roles, trumping a forecast 19,000 gain
New Zealand’s 10-year yield surged after GDP expanded more than twice as much as expected
Japan’s bonds fell after a 20-year debt auction met tepid investor demand. The yen weakened amid broad strength in the dollar
In rates, all 2s10s yield curves flatten as Treasury yields rose, led by the belly, with the exception of the 30-year segment. Bund curve bull flattens with 2s10s narrowing 3.2bps. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund adding 3.0bps to 195.2bps. Elsewhere, Bank of England hiked rates 50bp as expected, in a three-way vote. US yields edge lower after Bank of England decision across long- end, following wider gains across gilts where 10-year UK outperforms Treasuries by 6bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.47%, slightly richer on day on outright basis. Long-end outperformance in US curve sees 2s10s, 5s30s spreads extend flatter by 1.7bp and 2.2bp on the day. Dollar issuance slate remains light, with up to $5b expected for this week; Fed decision day saw a blank slate Wednesday. Packed data slate for the US session includes retail sales and industrial production.
In commodities, oil fluctuated between gains and losses after rallying almost 9% over the previous three sessions as TC Energy restarted a section of the Keystone pipeline, allowing for some flows to resume on the major conduit. Crude futures were steady, having pared a bulk of the Asian losses with the move coming in spite of the downside seen across the equity complex and a firmer USD. WTI trades within Wednesday’s range near $77.21. TC Energy announced it communicated with regulators and customers about the restart of the Keystone pipeline system sections unaffected by the leak but noted that the affected segment remains isolated and will not be restarted until it is safe and they receive approval to do so, according to Reuters. Spot gold falls roughly $29 to trade near $1,778/oz
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the monetary policy decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. There are also a number of US data releases, including November’s retail sales and industrial production, December’s Empire state manufacturing survey and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook, as well as the weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, earnings releases today include Adobe.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 1.0% to 3,957.25
STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 437.27
MXAP down 1.6% to 157.70
MXAPJ down 1.6% to 511.73
Nikkei down 0.4% to 28,051.70
Topix down 0.2% to 1,973.90
Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 19,368.59
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,168.65
Sensex down 1.3% to 61,888.02
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,204.78
Kospi down 1.6% to 2,360.97
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.94%
Euro down 0.6% to $1.0613
Brent Futures down 0.8% to $82.02/bbl
Brent Futures down 0.8% to $82.06/bbl
Gold spot down 1.5% to $1,780.77
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.53% to 104.32
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
The ECB is poised to slow the recent pace of interest-rate increases and outline plans to shrink its almost €5 trillion ($5.3 trillion) stash of bonds, broadening efforts to curb inflation that’s still five times the target
UK bond traders seeking shelter from this year’s turmoil are piling into 10-year securities, a section of the market that’s been relatively insulated from central bank action
Nurses have begun a round of historic strikes as Britain faces the prospect of heightened industrial action extending into next year
Almost 1 million people in China may die from Covid-19 as the government rapidly abandons pandemic curbs, according to a new study by researchers in Hong Kong
Expectations for long-term inflation rates in Sweden rose slightly in the latest Prospera survey, after a string of inflation outcomes that show price increases soaring far above the Riksbank’s 2% target
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he wants a three-way meeting with Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, signaling a thaw with Damascus that could help end the war in Syria
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks were subdued in the aftermath of the FOMC. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in nearly all sectors but with losses cushioned by strong jobs data. Nikkei 225 declined but just about remained above the 28K level following strong trade numbers in which the value of both exports and imports reached a record for the month of November. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative after disappointing Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, while property and tech stocks were driving the underperformance in Hong Kong after the HKMA raised rates in lockstep with the Fed, while attention was also on the PBoC which conducted a CNY 650bln 1-Year MLF operation vs. CNY 500bln maturing but maintained the rate at 2.75%.
Top Asian News
PBoC conducted CNY 650bln of 1-year MLF vs. CNY 500bln maturing with the rate kept at 2.75%.
HKMA raised its base rate by 50bps to 4.75%, as expected, following the Fed rate hike, while Macau’s Monetary Authority raised its base rate for the discount window by 50bps to 4.75%.
China’s stats bureau said China’s economy maintained its recovery trend in November despite multiple pressures but added that the foundation of the economic recovery is still not solid, according to Reuters.
US Senate passes bill to ban federal employees from using TikTok on government devices.
European bourses and US futures under pressure, seemingly in a second wave of the post-FOMC price action after action stabilised a touch overnight. Currently, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3% and ES -1.0%, with non-Central Bank updates relatively thin ahead of key US data and more Policy Announcements. Foxconn (2317 TT) has ended most closed-loop restrictions in ‘iPhone city’ ( Zhengzhou) , via Bloomberg.
Top European News
UK PM Sunak eyes anti-strike laws which he vows would protect lives and livelihoods, according to Daily Mail.
European Gas Prices Rise With Focus on Cold Snap and LNG Supply
Norway Raises Key Rate and Signals It’s Nearing a Peak
Kering Leads European Luxury Lower on Disappointing China Data
Rebel European Soccer League Gets Setback in EU Court Opinion
VW Sees Growing Challenges Next Year on Inflation, Downturn
Hungary Says May Need to Amend Gazprom Contract on EU Price Cap
Central Banks
Swiss SNB Policy Rate (Q4) 1.00% vs. Exp. 1.00% (Prev. 0.50%); cannot be ruled out that further hikes will be necessary. Willing to intervene in FX as necessary. Inflation forecasts cut, implying Switzerland is at the peak level. Click here for full details & analysis.
SNB’s Jordan (press conference) says we have sold foreign currency in recent months to ensure appropriate monetary conditions. Willing to buy/sell foreign currency as necessary.
Norges Bank Policy Announcement (Dec): 2.75% vs. Exp. 2.75% (Prev. 2.50%); policy rate will most likely be raised further in Q1 2023. Inflation forecasts lifted, Repo Path forecasts tweaked but little changed, implying another 25bp move with some optionality for further tightening, if needed. Click here for full details & analysis.
FX
USD has continued to climb throughout the morning, DXY above 104.40 at best.
Action which has weighed on peers across the board, with EUR/USD and Cable testing 1.06 and 1.23 to the downside ahead of ECB & BoE.
Antipodeans are at the bottom of the G10 pile irrespective of upbeat macro news.
NOK undermined post-Norges Bank despite initial fleeting upside as the Bank guides towards further tightening, despite the domestic headwind.
CHF similarly dented in a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ style following the as-expected SNB and as the inflation forecasts show the economy at the peak, perhaps limited the need for further tightening.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9343 vs exp. 6.9325 (prev. 6.9535)
Fixed Income
Gilts continue to outperform and lead the complex’s revival, with Bunds and USTs lifting in turn though are comparably more contained and yet to make any real foray into positive territory.
USTs appear to be guided by the risk tone and ongoing curve flattening post-Fed, with Central Bank activity since essentially in-line with expectations.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are flat, having pared a bulk of the APAC losses with the move coming in spite of the downside seen across the equity complex and a firmer USD.
TC Energy announced it communicated with regulators and customers about the restart of the Keystone pipeline system sections unaffected by the leak but noted that the affected segment remains isolated and will not be restarted until it is safe and they receive approval to do so, according to Reuters.
Canada said it decided to revoke the time-limited Nord Stream sanctions waiver that was granted to allow turbines to be repaired in Montreal for return to Germany with the decision made working closely with Ukrainian, German and other European allies, according to Reuters.
Spot gold and silver are unable to benefit from any traditional haven allure as the USD continues to ramp up; pressure in the yellow metal has brought it below the 10- & 200-DMAs to a test of the 21-DMA, at USD 1788/oz. 1787/oz and 1771/oz respectively.
Geopolitics
US is planning to send Ukraine advanced electronic equipment that converts unguided aerial munitions into “smart bombs”, according to officials cited by Washington Post.
US defence firms are in talks with Vietnam to sell helicopters and drones, while military deals with the US would signal a shift away from Vietnam’s reliance on Russia, according to Reuters.
Russia’s Washington embassy has warned that a transfer of the Patriot System to Ukraine would result in “unpredictable consequences”, via Walla News’ Elster.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Nov. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 1.3%
Nov. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0%, prior 0.9%
Nov. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 1.3%
Nov. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.1%, prior 0.7%
08:30: Dec. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 232,000, prior 230,000
Dec. Continuing Claims, est. 1.67m, prior 1.67m
08:30: Dec. Empire Manufacturing, est. -1.0, prior 4.5
08:30: Dec. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. -10.0, prior -19.4
09:15: Nov. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.1%
Nov. Capacity Utilization, est. 79.8%, prior 79.9%
Nov. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. -0.2%, prior 0.1%
10:00: Oct. Business Inventories, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
16:00: Oct. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $30.9b
Oct. Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior $118b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
If you wanted to briefly sum up the FOMC meeting last night you would probably say that the Fed were hawkish but that the market doesn’t believe they will be. Going through the details (our full US econ review, here), they did hike +50bps as expected, downshifting from four successive +75bps hikes. This brings the upper bound of the fed funds target range to 4.5%, around 360bps above where the markets thought it would be at this point last December. Last night’s meeting also brought a fresh round of projections from the Committee, where the median participant projected policy rates to rise to 5.1% by the end of next year, with core PCE expected to be 3.5%, still plenty above target. The distribution of dots was hawkish as well, as only 2 out of 19 participants pencilled in a policy rate below 5% by the end of 2023, so a strong rebuke to any investors expecting Fed cuts next year.
Indeed, that proved to be a key tenet of the press conference as well. After two optimistic CPI reports, Chair Powell tried to talk financial conditions back from getting too optimistic and easy, saying that even with today’s hikes the Fed still had a “ways to go” to make sure the fight against inflation was well and truly won. Much like the November FOMC, the Chair noted that the step down to smaller hiking increments makes sense as the Committee approaches terminal, and that the pace of rate increases was not nearly as important as the ultimate level of terminal or time spent there, pointing to the dots showing policy above 5% in a year’s time. In that vein, he also opened up the door for a 25bp hike at the Fed’s next meeting in February which may have helped markets reverse some of the immediate sell-off. Powell did note that core goods and housing services inflation was rolling over, in line with the Fed’s expectations, but that core services would remain above target so long as the labour market remained historically tight, as wages are a larger cost input in those sectors.
Markets sold off a touch in the hour following the hawkish dots and communications from the Chair, but the strong messaging was already anticipated by many following the last two CPI prints, as the Fed tries to avoid yet another counterproductive pricing pivot. Therefore, the net price action following the meeting was relatively modest, albeit with a decent sized range in the aftermath. 2yr Treasury yields ended the day -0.9bps lower having been -4.9bps lower heading into the meeting but +10bps 35mins after the decision. Meanwhile 10yr yields were -2.4bps lower after being roughly flat heading into the meeting, and c.+5bps 10 mins after the decision. The terminal rate priced for May increased a modest +1.2bps to 4.87%, still well below the Fed’s own projection of terminal. So something will have to give in the first few weeks of 2023. This morning in Asia, yields on 10yr USTs (+1.82 bps) have moved upwards, trading at 3.50%.
The S&P 500 was +0.71% higher immediately before the meeting but ended -0.61% lower after bouncing around between gains and losses throughout the press conference. So it seems the equity market took the hawkish bias more to heart than fixed income markets.
Asian equity markets are trading in negative territory this morning following the overnight negative lead from Wall Street. The KOSPI (-1.21%) and Hang Seng (-1.14%) are the biggest underperformers while the Nikkei (-0.33%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.28%) and the CSI (-0.23%) are also sliding in early trading. In overnight trading, US stock futures are rangebound with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.01%) just below flat and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.11%) trading slightly lower.
The big news overnight was data from China showing the toll that widespread Covid restrictions took on growth last month before the government announced that it would ease its policy. Industrial production slowed to +2.2% y/y (v/s +3.5% expected) in November from the +5.0% rise recorded in October. This marked the slowest growth since May when Shanghai was put under a two-month lockdown. At the same time, retail sales (-5.9% y/y) had their biggest contraction since May, underperforming expectations for a decline of -4.0% and greater than a -0.5% drop recorded in October.
Other economic data showed that Australia’s unemployment rate for November remained at 3.4%, in line with market expectations.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Japanese Yen was pretty flat against the USD yesterday even following a Bloomberg report that officials at the Bank of Japan were considering a policy review next year. Historically, reviews have led to policy changes, so it’ll be interesting to see if this ends up happening and whether that might mark a shift away from the ultra-loose monetary policy of recent years, which has increasingly made the BoJ an outlier internationally. Japan reported that exports rose +20.0% y/y in November (v/s +19.7% expected) compared to an increase of +25.3% in October and were outpaced by imports (up +30.3%). The trade deficit swelled more than expected to -2.03 trillion yen in November versus a revised shortfall of -2.17 trillion yen in October. This morning the Yen (+0.13%) is slightly higher, trading at $135.65.
Now that the Fed is out of the way, attention will turn to central banks in Europe today, with the ECB’s decision coming up at 13:15 London time. As with the Fed yesterday, it’s widely expected that the ECB will shift away from the 75bp hikes at the last couple of meetings in favour of a 50bp move today, which would take the deposit rate up to 2%. But even as they slow down their hikes, Mark Wall and our European economists write in their preview (link here) that they’ll maintain a hawkish communications strategy, since the ECB doesn’t want the market to interpret smaller hikes as meaning a lower terminal rate or earlier rate cuts. This hawkishness is likely to come through a number of channels, including upwardly revised staff inflation forecasts, which our economists expect will show stronger inflation in 2023 and 2024 relative to September.
If the ECB wasn’t enough, today will also bring the Bank of England’s decision just over an hour beforehand at 12:00 London time. In terms of what to expect, investors and economists are widely anticipating that the BoE will echo the pattern elsewhere and slow their hikes from 75bps last time to 50bps today. That would take the Bank Rate up to 3.5%, but unlike the ECB, our UK economist expects the MPC to strike another dovish tone this month, and sound more cautious around the risks of over-tightening. The decision today also follows the latest CPI data for November yesterday, which fell back by more than expected to +10.7% (vs. +10.9% expected). See our economist’s full preview here.
With all that to look forward to, European markets put in a pretty subdued performance yesterday, having closed ahead of the Fed decision. The main equity indices all lost modest ground, with the STOXX 600 (-0.02%), the DAX (-0.26%) and the FTSE 100 (-0.09%) posting declines. And for sovereign bonds it was a similar story, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.7bps), OATs (+3.1bps) and BTPs (+6.7bps) all moving higher on the day. That said, some of the moves at the front-end were more positive, with the German 2yr yield actually falling -0.9bps on the day.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the monetary policy decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. There are also a number of US data releases, including November’s retail sales and industrial production, December’s Empire state manufacturing survey and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook, as well as the weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, earnings releases today include Adobe.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Post-FOMC action continues, SNB & Norges Bank in-line; BoE, ECB & US data ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 06:32 AM
European bourses and US futures are under pressure, seemingly in a second wave of the post-FOMC price action.
USD has continued to climb throughout the morning, DXY above 104.40 at best with peers dented across the board
SNB & Norges Bank were essentially in-line with expectations, hiking by 50bp & 25bp respectively.
Gilts continue to outperform and leading a relative ‘revival’ in the debt space, though USTs and Bunds are yet to make any real ground above neutral
Crude benchmarks are flat, having pared a bulk of the APAC losses with the move coming in spite of the above action
Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, BoE, ECB, Banxico Policy Announcements, European Council Meeting (1/2), Press Conference from ECB’s Lagarde.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
CENTRAL BANKS
Swiss SNB Policy Rate (Q4) 1.00% vs. Exp. 1.00% (Prev. 0.50%); cannot be ruled out that further hikes will be necessary. Willing to intervene in FX as necessary. Inflation forecasts cut, implying Switzerland is at the peak level. Click here for full details & analysis.
SNB’s Jordan (press conference) says we have sold foreign currency in recent months to ensure appropriate monetary conditions. Willing to buy/sell foreign currency as necessary.
Norges Bank Policy Announcement (Dec): 2.75% vs. Exp. 2.75% (Prev. 2.50%); policy rate will most likely be raised further in Q1 2023. Inflation forecasts lifted, Repo Path forecasts tweaked but little changed, implying another 25bp move with some optionality for further tightening, if needed. Click here for full details & analysis.
EQUITIES
European bourses and US futures under pressure, seemingly in a second wave of the post-FOMC price action after action stabilised a touch overnight.
Currently, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3% and ES -1.0%, with non-Central Bank updates relatively thin ahead of key US data and more Policy Announcements.
Foxconn (2317 TT) has ended most closed-loop restrictions in ‘iPhone city’ ( Zhengzhou) , via Bloomberg.
USD has continued to climb throughout the morning, DXY above 104.40 at best.
Action which has weighed on peers across the board, with EUR/USD and Cable testing 1.06 and 1.23 to the downside ahead of ECB & BoE.
Antipodeans are at the bottom of the G10 pile irrespective of upbeat macro news.
NOK undermined post-Norges Bank despite initial fleeting upside as the Bank guides towards further tightening, despite the domestic headwind.
CHF similarly dented in a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ style following the as-expected SNB and as the inflation forecasts show the economy at the peak, perhaps limited the need for further tightening.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9343 vs exp. 6.9325 (prev. 6.9535)
Gilts continue to outperform and lead the complex’s revival, with Bunds and USTs lifting in turn though are comparably more contained and yet to make any real foray into positive territory.
USTs appear to be guided by the risk tone and ongoing curve flattening post-Fed, with Central Bank activity since essentially in-line with expectations.
Crude benchmarks are flat, having pared a bulk of the APAC losses with the move coming in spite of the downside seen across the equity complex and a firmer USD.
TC Energy announced it communicated with regulators and customers about the restart of the Keystone pipeline system sections unaffected by the leak but noted that the affected segment remains isolated and will not be restarted until it is safe and they receive approval to do so, according to Reuters.
Canada said it decided to revoke the time-limited Nord Stream sanctions waiver that was granted to allow turbines to be repaired in Montreal for return to Germany with the decision made working closely with Ukrainian, German and other European allies, according to Reuters.
Spot gold and silver are unable to benefit from any traditional haven allure as the USD continues to ramp up; pressure in the yellow metal has brought it below the 10- & 200-DMAs to a test of the 21-DMA, at USD 1788/oz. 1787/oz and 1771/oz respectively.
US is planning to send Ukraine advanced electronic equipment that converts unguided aerial munitions into “smart bombs”, according to officials cited by Washington Post.
US defence firms are in talks with Vietnam to sell helicopters and drones, while military deals with the US would signal a shift away from Vietnam’s reliance on Russia, according to Reuters.
Russia’s Washington embassy has warned that a transfer of the Patriot System to Ukraine would result in “unpredictable consequences”, via Walla News’ Elster.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were subdued in the aftermath of the FOMC.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in nearly all sectors but with losses cushioned by strong jobs data.
Nikkei 225 declined but just about remained above the 28K level following strong trade numbers in which the value of both exports and imports reached a record for the month of November.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were negative after disappointing Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, while property and tech stocks were driving the underperformance in Hong Kong after the HKMA raised rates in lockstep with the Fed, while attention was also on the PBoC which conducted a CNY 650bln 1-Year MLF operation vs. CNY 500bln maturing but maintained the rate at 2.75%.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC conducted CNY 650bln of 1-year MLF vs. CNY 500bln maturing with the rate kept at 2.75%.
HKMA raised its base rate by 50bps to 4.75%, as expected, following the Fed rate hike, while Macau’s Monetary Authority raised its base rate for the discount window by 50bps to 4.75%.
China’s stats bureau said China’s economy maintained its recovery trend in November despite multiple pressures but added that the foundation of the economic recovery is still not solid, according to Reuters.
US Senate passes bill to ban federal employees from using TikTok on government devices.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Industrial Output YY (Nov) 2.2% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 5.0%); Retail Sales YY (Nov) -5.9% vs. Exp. -3.7% (Prev. -0.5%)
Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Nov) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prev. 5.8%); House Prices YY (Nov) -1.6% (Prev. -1.6%)
Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Nov) -227.4B vs. Exp. -1680.3B (Prev. -2162.3B, Rev. -2166.2B)
Japanese Exports YY (Nov) 20% vs. Exp. 19.8% (Prev. 25.3%); Imports YY (Nov) 30.3% vs. Exp. 27.0% (Prev. 53.5%)
Australian Employment (Nov) 64.0k vs. Exp. 19.0k (Prev. 32.2k, Rev. 43.1k); Unemployment Rate (Nov) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
Australian Participation Rate (Nov) 66.8% vs. Exp. 66.6% (Prev. 66.5%)
New Zealand GDP QQ (Q3) 2.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.7%, Rev. 1.9%); YY (Q3) 6.4% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.3%)
1.c THURSDAY//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.80 PTS OR 0.25% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 304.88 OR 1.55% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 104.51 OR 0.37% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.65% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.9680//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9673// /Oil UP TO 77,71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 82.63 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
end
2B JAPAN
/
JAPAN/
END
3c CHINA /
CHINA/USA
SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
Are you surprised by this? China continues to do business this way!
Robert:
Why be surprised, it is the way of business in China
A Chinese real estate mogul is battling extradition to the United States from the UK for his alleged role in bribing San Francisco city officials.
Zhang Li, billionaire co-founder and CEO of Guangzhou-based R&F Properties, is wanted in California for allegedly bribing public officials between 2015 and 2020. Zhang is accused of paying kickbacks to government employees to obtain permits for a major construction project in San Francisco.
The 69-year-old mogul was arrested for extradition in London on Nov. 30. At a court hearing on Dec. 12, Judge John Zani granted Zhang a record-breaking $18.4 million bail ahead of the extradition proceedings. Zhang didn’t attend the hearing, appearing through his lawyer.
Now, Zhang lives under 24-hour guarded house arrest in his luxury London skyrise. He isn’t allowed access to any device with an internet connection and must be handcuffed to a member of his court-appointed private security team when he leaves the property to attend court.
Zhang was previously a government official in communist China and later co-founded the R&F, a Hong Kong-listed real estate company. He also co-founded another real estate firm, Z&L Properties, a California company through which he committed the alleged crimes. A representative for the U.S. prosecution described Z&L as the U.S. affiliate of R&F.
An R&F statement on Dec. 12 said the allegations were a “false accusation” stemming from a visit to China by a former public affairs official from San Francisco. The visit allegedly included luxury meals and accommodations.
R&F said in a securities filing on Dec. 13 that it didn’t provide any money toward Zhang’s bail and that it has no interest in Z&L. Although the company stated that the case won’t have any adverse impact on the company’s business and operations, shares in R&F fell by more than 13 percent on Dec. 13.
Casino Loyale
The case isn’t the first time that local officials in California have been accused of cultivating corrupt ties to China.
In November, the Chinese billionaire owner of a Los Angeles real estate firm was found guilty of paying more than $1 million in bribes to a Los Angeles city councilman as part of a scheme that involved luxury cruises, high-rolling trips to casinos, and prostitution.
Billionaire Wei Huang, who also owns one of China’s largest real estate firms, allegedly spent the monies in a lasting effort to develop a 77-story skyscraper in Los Angeles, buying off the district’s representative and planning chair from 2013 to 2018.
That conviction was one of nine stemming from the Los Angeles alone, all made as part of the Justice Department’s (DOJ) “Operation Casino Loyale,” a wide-reaching DOJ probe into corruption at Los Angeles City Hall.
About 10,000 high-net-worth individuals (people with assets exceeding $1 million) from China have flocked to the United States this year alone, with a third of them buying real estate in California at an average price of more than $1 million per transaction. Of those, 58 percent paid for the real estate with cash.
Reuters contributed to this report.
Andrew Thornebrooke is a reporter for The Epoch Times covering China-related issues with a focus on defense, military affairs, and national security. He holds a master’s in military history from Norwich University.
END
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
EUROPE
ECB hikes by expected 50 basis points and will begin its QT in March. They raise inflation expectations
(zerohedge)
Hawkish ECB Hikes 50bps, Will Begin QT In March; Raises Inflation Expectations
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 08:26 AM
Expectations of a 50bps hike were pretty much locked in – so no surprise there at all from The ECB’s decision today (to hike 50bps), but the timing of the start of quantitative tightening is what most traders are eyeing with expectations for a ‘grey’ ‘first quarter of 2023’ range being expected (kicking the decision can down the road).
The 50bps follows the Fed, SNB, and Boe decisions in the last 24 hours, and the guidance that interest rates “will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace” sounds pretty hawkish.
Additionally, The ECB to continue to be flexible in its PEPP reinvestment (as needed) and added that QT will begin in March at a “measured, predictable pace”, with the average monthly decline in bonds will amount to 15 billion euros until the end of the second quarter.
The ECB raised its inflation expectations and notably it remains above 2.0% targets into 2025…
ECB Sees Inflation at 6.3% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025
Sees Inflation Ex-Food, Energy at 4.2% in 2023; Prior 3.4%
Sees Inflation Ex-Food, Energy at 2.8% in 2024; Prior 2.3%
Sees Inflation Ex-Food, Energy at 2.4% in 2025
And cut 2023’s GDP forecast (while hiking 2022):
ECB Sees GDP at 3.4% in 2022; Prior Forecast 3.1%
ECB Sees GDP at 0.5% in 2023; Prior Forecast 0.9%
ECB Sees GDP at 1.9% in 2024; Prior Forecast 1.9%
The Euro has fallen on 5 of the last 7 ECB meeting days and while options implied this would be one of the quietest ECB days since April, there was still lots of room for volatility. For now the initial reaction is a small rebound in the Euro…
German 2Y yields spiked on the news…
Watch Lagarde live here (due to start at 0845T):
Full ECB Statement:
Monetary policy decisions
The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points and, based on the substantial upward revision to the inflation outlook, expects to raise them further. In particular, the Governing Council judges that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target. Keeping interest rates at restrictive levels will over time reduce inflation by dampening demand and will also guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations. The Governing Council’s future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.
The key ECB interest rates are the Governing Council’s primary tool for setting the monetary policy stance. The Governing Council today also discussed principles for normalising the Eurosystem’s monetary policy securities holdings. From the beginning of March 2023 onwards, the asset purchase programme (APP) portfolio will decline at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem will not reinvest all of the principal payments from maturing securities. The decline will amount to €15 billion per month on average until the end of the second quarter of 2023 and its subsequent pace will be determined over time.
At its February meeting the Governing Council will announce the detailed parameters for reducing the APP holdings. The Governing Council will regularly reassess the pace of the APP portfolio reduction to ensure it remains consistent with the overall monetary policy strategy and stance, to preserve market functioning, and to maintain firm control over short-term money market conditions. By the end of 2023, the Governing Council will also review its operational framework for steering short-term interest rates, which will provide information regarding the endpoint of the balance sheet normalisation process.
The Governing Council decided to raise interest rates today, and expects to raise them significantly further, because inflation remains far too high and is projected to stay above the target for too long. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, inflation was 10.0% in November, slightly lower than the 10.6% recorded in October. The decline resulted mainly from lower energy price inflation. Food price inflation and underlying price pressures across the economy have strengthened and will persist for some time. Amid exceptional uncertainty, Eurosystem staff have significantly revised up their inflation projections. They now see average inflation reaching 8.4% in 2022 before decreasing to 6.3% in 2023, with inflation expected to decline markedly over the course of the year. Inflation is then projected to average 3.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. Inflation excluding energy and food is projected to be 3.9% on average in 2022 and to rise to 4.2% in 2023, before falling to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025.
The euro area economy may contract in the current quarter and the next quarter, owing to the energy crisis, high uncertainty, weakening global economic activity and tighter financing conditions. According to the latest Eurosystem staff projections, a recession would be relatively short-lived and shallow. Growth is nonetheless expected to be subdued next year and has been revised down significantly compared with the previous projections. Beyond the near term, growth is projected to recover as the current headwinds fade. Overall, the Eurosystem staff projections now see the economy growing by 3.4% in 2022, 0.5% in 2023, 1.9% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.
Key ECB interest rates
The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 2.50%, 2.75% and 2.00% respectively, with effect from 21 December 2022.
Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)
The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP until the end of February 2023. Subsequently, the APP portfolio will decline at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem will not reinvest all of the principal payments from maturing securities. The decline will amount to €15 billion per month on average until the end of the second quarter of 2023 and its subsequent pace will be determined over time.
As concerns the PEPP, the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.
The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.
Refinancing operations
As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance.
The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% target over the medium term. The Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.
end
VERY HAWKISH!
“Anyone Who Thinks This Is A Pivot Is Wrong”: ECB Doubles Down On Hawkish Signals As it Hikes Into Recession
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 11:10 AM
In summary, here are the top give takeaways from the hawkish ECB policy decision and Lagarde’s even more hawkish press briefing (via BBG).
The ECB opted for a 50 basis-point rate hike, following in the footsteps of the Fed and BOE with a slower pace of tightening
Yet Lagarde and other officials set out to send a more hawkish message, stressing the ECB’s intention to raise rates significantly at a steady pace. “Anyone who thinks the ECB is pivoting is wrong”, she said.
The reason is a significant increase in inflation forecasts, with even core inflation seen above target in 2025.
The euro reversed losses to hit a six-month high versus the dollar; euro-area bonds dropped, German two-year yields surged by 28 basis points. The Euro has since dropped and reversed almost all gains, however.
The ECB also gave an overview of how it expects to begin reducing its balance sheet, saying it will start in March at a “measured and predictable pace” amounting to €15 billion per month on average until the end of the second quarter
After successive hikes of 75 basis points, the ECB lifted the deposit rate more slowly on Thursday, to 2%, as economists expected. But there was little dovishness elsewhere: pledging to push borrowing costs “significantly” higher, officials widened efforts to tame prices with a decision to shrink their €5 trillion ($5.3 trillion) bond portfolio.
“Anybody who thinks that this is a pivot for the ECB is wrong,” Lagarde told a news conference. “We should expect to raise interest rates at a 50 basis-point pace for a period of time.”
“We have more ground to cover, we have longer to go and we are in for a long game,” she said.
And speaking of inflation, here is the ECB’s latest forecast.
Similar to the Fed, the ECB raised its inflation projections for the euro zone on Thursday and said price growth would remain above its 2% target throughout a projection horizon that now extends to 2025. Which is funny, because the ECB has persistently underestimated inflation over the past two years, and the bank has raised interest rates at four successive meetings to tame unexpectedly persistent price pressures. So it has gone from overly dovish to overly hawkish, and inflation will tumble long before the 2025 bogey.
In any case, the bank now sees inflation in the 19-country currency bloc at 6.3% next year, compared with expectations for 5.5% made in September. Its 2024 forecast was raised to 3.4% from 2.3% while, in its first estimate for 2025, the ECB sees inflation then at 2.3%. Initially driven by post-COVID supply chain bottlenecks – which the ECB had some control over – inflation has been surging on sky-high energy prices – which the ECB has no control over – but food and services costs are now becoming increasingly prominent, making price growth relatively broad.
Economic growth will meanwhile suffer badly next year as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, particularly the impact of high energy prices. The ECB now sees GDP growth at 0.5% next year – the same as the Fed does for the US and hints at a recession next year – compared with 0.9% forecast in September, while in 2024, it is projected at an unchanged 1.9%. In 2025, the ECB sees growth at 1.8%.
Traders added to rate-hike bets, pricing a deposit-rate peak of 3% next year, compared with 2.93% earlier. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped as much as 2.5%, sinking to the lowest level in a month and the most in nearly two months as rates-sensitive sectors like technology and retailers slumped.
Lagarde said financial markets hadn’t adequately accounted for the amount borrowing costs would need to rise to quell inflation.
END
UK
UK follows the leader, USA by raising 50 basis points as they slide into recession
(zerohedge)
BOE Hikes By 50bps To Highest Since 2008 In A 3-Way Split Decision As UK Slides Into Recession
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 07:23 AM
Following in the Fed’s footsteps, moments ago the Bank of England raised interest rates by the expected 50bps, the ninth increase in a row to a 14-year high of 3.5%, pressing ahead with efforts to tame sky-high inflation even as the UK officially slides into recession.
Remarkably, the MPC was even more divided than its last decision, and was split three-ways: 2 calls for no change (rate hikes done/pause), 1 for 75bps and 6 for 50bps; Specifically, Tenreyro and Dhingra voted for unchanged, saying the current setting of Bank Rate was more than sufficient to bring inflation back to target, before falling below target in the medium term; on the other end, Mann voted for -75bps: said although there was some evidence of an inflection point in CPI inflation, there was greater evidence that price and wage pressures would stay strong for longer than had been projected in the November Report: pulling forward monetary’ action now would reduce the risk that Bank Rate would need to rise well into next year even as the economy slowed further. Or as Vanda’s Viraj Patel notes, “it’s telling of where UK economy is – there’s a case for 0 or 75bps. Nuts. Key thing next year is timing/depth of recession. One group on the MPC will be wrong”
“The majority of the committee judged that, should the economy evolve broadly in line with the November Monetary Policy Report Projections, further increases in bank rate may be required,” Bailey wrote in a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt.
Hunt appeared to take pressure off the BOE to raise rates in his first exchange of letters with the governor since he became chancellor, according to Bloomberg. His predecessors had urged the bank to act “forcefully” against rising inflation — an implicit direction that the government was watching the committee closely. Hunt dropped that language, but of course none of that matters since central banks are supposedly “independent” and don’t make decision based on what politicians want, wink wink.
“I know that the MPC will continue to take the action necessary,” Hunt wrote. The letters are triggered every quarter if inflation strays more than 1 percentage point away from the 2% target.
Bailey said inflation may already have peaked, but the risks around that projection are on the “upside” and price growth will remain very high in the next few months.
Minutes of the meeting said the majority said, “the labor market remained tight, and there had been evidence that inflationary pressures in domestic prices and wages that could indicate greater persistence and thus justified a further forceful monetary policy response,” minutes of the meeting released Thursday showed.
The panel dropped guidance that it issued in November, when it said the path for interest rates implied by financial markets was too aggressive and now says that “While the market-implied path was a little higher than the MaPS median, the gap between these measures had narrowed since the previous MaPS survey, conducted in mid-October “
The minutes said the “majority” of the panel now believe “further increases” in bank rate might be required — if the economy evolves in line with its November forecast. Separately, the Committee continues to judge that, if the outlook suggests more persistent inflationary pressures it will respond forcefully, as necessary.
More importantly, BOE officials estimate the UK is now in recession, thought the economy is slightly stronger than it anticipated in November. Gross domestic product in the fourth quarter probably will fall 0.1% following a decline of 0.5% in the third quarter, the BOE said.
The BOE also said that the government’s fiscal package released last month will support the economy next year but depress output in three year’s time. Separately, GDP will be 0.4% stronger at the end of 2023 than previously forecast, but it will be 0.5% weaker at the end of 2025, according to the central bank’s estimates.
The Treasury’s measures will have a small impact on inflation. But a 3,000 pound cap on energy bills from April will bring headline inflation down by 0.75 of a percentage point in the second quarter, the BOE said.
The BOE decision, which takes rates to their highest level since November 2008, came after the US Federal Reserve eased up its tightening plans with a half point rate hike on Wednesday, bringing its target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed signaled that the US is now close to the terminal rate, which it estimates at just over 5%. Markets reckon UK rates need to reach about 4.75%.
With the BOE dealing with the highest level of inflation in four decades – most of which is purely supply-driven and which monetary policy has absolutely no impact on – there are signs that it is becoming embedded in wage-setting. That has led to the fastest monetary tightening cycle since the late 1989s. However, official figures this week suggested inflation is now past its peak.
The good news is that earlier this week, consumer prices fell from 11.1% in October to 10.7% in November and labor market participation improved, with 76,000 inactive people re-joining the workforce and vacancies falling. However, wages are rising at the fastest pace since in two decades outside the pandemic and inflation remains more than five times the BOE’s 2% target.
The BOE will publish a market notice at 6 p.m. Friday outlining the progress of gilt sales under its quantitative tightening program and the operational arrangements for the first quarter of 2023.
The bank said the pace of its gilt sales is running ahead of schedule, which “would permit an earlier unwind of the portfolio than initially anticipated.” The central bank reduced the stock of gilts in its portfolio by 44 billion pounds over 2022 as a whole, bringing government bonds in its Asset Purchase Portfolio to 831 billion pounds.
Looking ahead, the market sees 70% odds of a 25bps in Feb and 30% of 50bps; the peak rate is seen at just below 4.5% around Q2/Q3.
The lack of any notable surprises in the statement means that cable is roughly unchanged from where it was before the statement, trading just around 1.234 after a modest dip lower in the kneejerk move.
end
UK/UKRAINE
Now the UK military publicly admits to covert operations in the Ukraine for the first time
(Will Porter/Libertarian Institute)
UK Military Publicly Admits Covert Operations In Ukraine For First Time
The British Royal Marines have carried out high-risk special operations on the ground in Ukraine, according to the former head of the elite unit, who said UK commandos have been deployed to the country on more than one occasion this year.
Writing in the Royal Navy’s official magazine, the Globe and Laurel, Lieutenant General Robert Magowan said some 350 Marines were sent to Ukraine for two missions since January, starting with an operation to help relocate UK diplomatic staff to Poland just ahead of Russia’s invasion.
The second occurred in April, soon after Moscow’s withdrawal from the region surrounding the Ukrainian capital, according to Magowan, who was once the commandant general of the Royal Marines and now serves as a senior official under the Chief of the Defense Staff.
“In April, they returned into the country to re-establish the diplomatic mission, providing protection to critical personnel,” the general said. “During both phases, the commandos supported other discreet operations in a hugely sensitive environment and with a high level of political and military risk.”
Though Magowan did not elaborate on what those “other” missions entailed, he is the first British official to publicly confirm special operations in the country since Russia’s attack began in February. The UK Defense Ministry previously acknowledged that soldiers were sent to protect embassy staff, but has never discussed missions on the scale described by Magowan and rarely comments on covert ops.
Asked about the general’s claims, a Royal Navy spokesman would only say that Marines were “deployed to Ukraine to support the UK’s diplomatic presence,” but stressed that “they served no combat function.”
The Marine unit sent for both deployments, known as 45 Commando, now reportedly specializes in “Arctic warfare,” according to the Times, but previously took part in the Falklands conflict, as well as the US-led invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Troops from 45 Commando were stationed in Norway for winter exercises when they were called to assist evacuation efforts from Ukraine to Poland earlier this year. The neighboring state has served as a staging area for Western military aid to Kiev and foreign volunteers looking to join the fight.
Magowan also hailed the Marines for their help in training Ukrainian forces on foreign territory, saying they have been “heavily involved” in the process and are now planning to train up “Ukraine marines.”
British military trainers were ostensibly withdrawn early this year to avoid potential clashes after Russian troops entered the country, but special operators have continued the training efforts since, local commanders previously told the Times. Ukrainian officers said UK soldiers returned to the Kiev area in April to instruct recruits on how to use British-supplied weapons, such as the NLAW anti-tank weapon. Though that training would have coincided with one of the deployments reported by Magowan, it’s unclear whether those soldiers were Royal Marines.
“After this Ukraine fiasco is finished next year. Poland will be the next lamb to be slaughtered in the Sovereign debt crisis. I have told people for a long time to avoid Poland as a home and as a investment destination. When war comes there will be no commercial liquidity value to real estate. Frankly, there is little there now with rising food prices and power disruptions. Poland will see much worse than what is happening in the Ukraine . Both sides have used Ukraine as a proving ground for weapon systems. The difference is that with Poland who will invade first is that Russia will not stay conventional. This is what the ship of fools does not understand or if they do they do not care. Further, Russia has demonstrated a industrial capacity for war that the West does not have. So in a conflict Poland will run out of weapon systems much faster than the Ukraine. As it is Russia can fire 8-10 times more artillery than the Ukraine can with Western backing. The notion that artillery shells need to be purchased from South Korea to send to the Ukraine as the US is out should be a cautionary flag. Because South Korea is the biggest winner by also selling cars in mass numbers to Russia. They are most happy to profit from both sides. Stay away from Poland because the losses to life there is make the Ukraine look like child’s play. As for Polish troops in the Ukraine, their ability to gain experience is limited by the reality that 70% of troops in Bakhmut there regardless of nationality their life span is short.“
it is numbered in days and not weeks.
In speaking with people on the ground in Poland near Lviv (87 kilometers) a nightmare picture comes. Poland has a active mobilization in effect of men aged 17-55 and a certain mobilization of women as well. The only exemption is a religious one that needs proof for now. Daily the constant roll of military vehicles occurs across roads and the thunder of shelling and rocket attacks is heard from the Lviv area. Prices for food are several times more expensive there than in North America. Life is difficult and many Ukrainians who have lost their homes are taking up shelter in such areas near by. In close proximity many Polish people share ancestral roots of Ukrainians from borders that changed and marriage. There are large forces of non Polish troops in the region actively training apart from the training given to the Polish mobilization. It is said Poland hopes to field a field force of 250,000 soldiers for the fight. Like all civilian mobilization many will be front line cannon fodder. Those Polish people who have 2nd passports have left or are in the active process of leaving and escaping, leaving real estate and the like behind. Those of mobilization age have to cross over into another EU country to flee and Poland now will detain anyone of such age.
Poland is small country with perhaps a 1000 kilometer span compared to the Ukraine which is the size of Texas. People are very afraid and tense daily now.
Recall that there is contingent of 90,000 NATO soldiers in Romania with 1/2 being Americans ready to invade. At some point some fool will likely give the order for attack ignoring all the warnings given by Russia about foreign interference on the ground. The notion by the ship of fools which seems to take on guests in ready fashion is making light of nuclear exchange. This is very troubling because the Russians are not kidding around and will fight to survive and will pushed too far use nuclear weapons. Be very sure that Russia and China has far better sources of intel on the ground and will coordinate their moves. At a time when anyone looking can see that the West cannot sustain a confrontation with Russia without physically running out of bullets in weeks not months. While Russia has demonstrated they have a war supply chain that can adequately supply needed arms and shells, and missiles. As soon as some newer missiles are further in serial production one might expect a rising tempo in this conflict driven by Russia. As it is one only has to observe what is happening now that the tempo has changed to Russian favor. And is well helped by “General Winter” which favors a winter campaign. It was clear 6 months ago that a decision had been made for a winter campaign and Russia has prepared for it.
While we enter this festive season, we would do well to pray for peace and those unfortunate souls who are staring at a horrible winter, both in the Ukraine and in Poland. And frankly all of Europe is not far behind.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
US Mulls More Troops Inside Ukraine To Track Arms As Leaked Cable Admits “Impossible” Task
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 08:09 AM
The Biden administration is mulling stepping up the US troop presence inside Ukraine as part of a program to attempt to track the billions of dollars in weaponry being handed out to its forces. However, some critics are already pointing out the obvious: “This is classic mission creep,” a former US official has warned, following the examples of endless ‘war on terror’ conflicts-turned-quagmires such as Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria.
NBC News cited three US defense officials this week who indicated that sending a small number of additional troops to assist existing attempts to establish an arms-tracking oversight program inside Ukraine is being seriously discussed, coming at a time the White House is facing increased Congressional scrutiny over lack of accountability, particularly as Republicans are set to take over in the House next year.
“The Pentagon has a couple of dozen U.S. troops in Ukraine, including a very small number already assigned to making sure weapons reach their intended recipients,”NBC reported. “Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other military leaders want to enhance the accountability mission and make sure there are experts in country to help Ukraine use critical weapons systems, including air defense and counter-drone systems.”
It was first revealed in October that the Pentagon does in fact have“boots on the ground” beyond personnel safeguarding the embassy, in order to conduct “onsite” weapons inspections of US-provided stockpiles.
This reportedly includes locations outside the relative ‘safety’ of the capital, where US troops scan bar codes and look at serial numbers of US-supplied weapons shipments, but not yet in the vicinity of the front lines.
On Wednesday Politico revealed the contents of a “sensitive but unclassified” internal US government diplomatic cable which admitted the near impossibility of adequately overseeing weaponry once it enters the country:
The Biden administration also plans to tap a still-unnamed U.S. firm by February to implement a special three-year initiative to help the oversight effort, according to the “sensitive but unclassified” document.
And then there’s this blunt acknowledgement from the ‘sensitive’ document [emphasis ours]:
The cable, signed by U.S. Ambassador Bridget Brink, is a snapshot in time. But it underscores how crises like the Ukraine war — such as U.S. experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq — inevitably turn into hugely expensive undertakings that are hard to track precisely because of the chaos on the ground, often in countries with histories of corruption.
The 9-page cable itself states outright that “Above all, kinetic activity and active combat between Ukrainian and Russian forces create an environment in which standard verification measures are sometimes impracticable or impossible.”
Revelation of the cable caused the State Department to issue a statement assuring that “The U.S. Embassy is open and remains fully engaged on oversight of U.S. assistance, despite Russia’s relentless attacks” – and additionally that “The United States takes very seriously our responsibility to ensure appropriate oversight of all U.S. assistance.”
Yet this is unlikely to blunt the growing Republican calls for more oversight led by Rep. Kevin McCarthy who has repeatedly denounced Biden’s “blank check” approach to Ukraine, as Politico continues of the diplomatic cable:
There are, for instance, severe limits on the number of American officials in the field and a number of security constraints on their movements. It’s also hard to find contractors willing to work in high-risk regions or set up in-person meetings with government officials, civil society leaders and others receiving the aid, the document states.
Less than two months ago, Finland was among the first European countries to document the spread of West-supplied weaponry outside of Ukraine’s borders and into the hands of criminal elements, as we detailed previously.
“Weapons shipped [by various countries] to Ukraine have also been found in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands,” Finland’s federal National Bureau of Investigation chief Christer Ahlgren was recently quoted by national broadcaster Yle as saying.
Russia has already long warned it will attack foreign weapons shipments, transport convoys, and warehouses found in Ukraine… but how long before Russian forces target American military inspectors on the ground behind the front lines? The longer the grinding conflict drags on, the greater potential for such a disastrous scenario, whether intentional or not.
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA
Russia Warns Of “Unpredictable” Spiral If US Sends Patriot Missiles To Ukraine
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 03:39 PM
Russia has issued a fresh official condemnation Thursday after reports emerged in major US publications this week that the Biden White House is to imminently approve sending Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine. The prior day, the Kremlin initially reacted by declaring any inbound Patriot shipments a “legitimate target” for attack.
The Russian Embassy in Washington has now issued an additional warning, saying the conflict could enter an “unpredictable” spiral if the US follows through with supplying Patriot anti-air systems. President Biden is still said to be “finalizing” plans to send what would mark the longest-range missiles to date for Ukraine’s forces.
“If this is confirmed, we will witness yet another provocative step by the [Biden] administration, which can lead to unpredictable consequences,” the fresh Russian Embassy statement said.
While Biden admin officials have tried to cast the potential move as purely defensive in nature, arguing stronger anti-air measures are needed to protect civilians and cities from the onslaught of expanded Russian aerial attacks, Moscow countered it will embolden Kiev to commit “new crimes” against civilians.
The Russian Embassy statement added that the new major weapons systems transfer “will only strengthen the Zelensky regime’s sense of impunity and push it to new crimes against civilians” in four annexed regions of the east and south.
Further warning that it could lead to showdown between nuclear-armed powers, the embassy stated: “Washington’s strategy causes enormous damage not only to the Russian-American relations, but also creates additional risks for global security.”
Meanwhile, also on Thursday a top pro-Russia official in Donetsk region said it has suffered the most intense wave of Ukrainian shelling since 2014.
According to an independent Moscow Times/AFP report:
“At precisely 7 a.m., Ukrainian fascists subjected the center of Donetsk to the most massive strike since 2014,” Alexei Kulemzin wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
Separatist officials said on social media that one person was killed and nine more were injured.
Mayor Alexei Kulemzin said 40 rockets fired by Grad multiple rocket launchers landed on residential buildings, a hospital, a kindergarten and other buildings including a church.
Donetsk authorities subsequently published and circulated dozens of photos and videos documenting the aftermath of the large-scale shelling, calling it a “war crime”…
While for the past eight years civilians in Donbas who have long been seen by Kiev as more ‘Russia sympathetic’ (also given the prominence of the Russian language there) have come under periodic indiscriminate shelling by Ukrainian forces and nationalist militias, the resulting atrocities tend to receive scant coverage in mainstream Western media.
END
Robert H to us:
Fwd: Hal Turner Radio Show – VIDEO: **AMERICAN** Troops Get Lost in Ukraine – Ask **RUSSIAN SPEAKER** for “Map”
This is comical and would be funny if not for the seriousness of what this event means and implies.
Repeatedly, we see a total disregard for peace and trust by the Ship of fools with a total disregard for life. Ukrainians are being sacrificed to the last one and soon Poles will be thrown into the meat grinder of pointless conflict for the sake of hegemony and to extend the the day of reckoning over the Sovereign Debt crisis, where countries refuse to face realities of non payable debt while continuing to run up deficits.
Global trust amongst nations is hitting new lows and sides are clearly being picked. The turning away from the dollar is a clear indication that the world will never be the same. Since 1945 America dominated with the dollar allowing Imperialism to be unipolar. And while there were many wolves at the table; all were silence until the day the fools on board the good ship decided to kick Russia off Swift and look to plunder Russia as a result. On this fateful day America stopped having the privilege of being a unipolar leader and now faces in addition to its’ own debt mess, a global crisis of liquidity and solvency.
A larger conflict in Europe will not stop the march to a multipolar world which is clearly evidenced by Russia’ success in-spite of sanctions and the like; including the Ukrainian conflict. One can see the alignment with Russia by countries like India and China that a true shift has occurred. On top of that, the conflict in Ukraine has already demonstrated that reality that the west has no practical war machine that can supply weapons as needed in a real combat situation against a equipped Opponent. Compare Russia’s ability to out shoot the Ukrainians 8-1 with artillery shells while NATO runs out of ammunition forced to buy from South Korea. While Russian factories turn vast quantities of munitions every day. What will happen to Poland when in two weeks of conflict they run out of ammo? Hey, why not invoke article 5 and call for nukes? After all no one has tested the theory of survival in light of the fact that Russia possesses the largest publicly disclosed unstoppable arsenal of nukes. Will they be lucky? Of course not, but ignorance and indifference are great building blocks of failure.
Yes, video’s like this signal that not only are American boots on the ground quite separate from Ukrainians but that a wider conflict looms on the horizon. And no amount of denial by talking heads will change the reality that no agreement or negotiation is possible to avoid a wider conflict and many more deaths. A wider war tragedy is underway in Europe.
And like it always seems to be, governments continue to exhibit zero regard for citizens. Because if they did have regard then we would not see stories and news reports of ordinary Americans forced to steal from Walmart to live because of a lack of money while countless billions are squandered in the Ukraine. And to the surprise of Ukies in government they no longer are trending on Twitter much to their angst given they employ 250 PR firms to spew their propaganda.
DeSantis Forms Florida Grand Jury To Investigate Misconduct Surrounding Covid Vaccine Rollout
WEDNESDAY, DEC 14, 2022 – 10:00 PM
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is establishing a grand jury through the state’s supreme court to investigate malfeasance involving the rollout of the covid mRNA vaccines. The investigations will include the claims of vaccine safety by pharmaceutical companies and the CDC, along with the rising number of deadly reactions to the jab including Myocarditis. The announcement was made in a virtual town hall-style meeting and was met with a positive response.
DeSantis notes the moral bankruptcy of the scientific establishment in the US during the pandemic lockdowns – With the federal government and many scientists admonishing the public for going outside their homes (even though UV light from the sun is a natural sterilizer), while at the same time supporting the BLM protests in which thousands of people congregated on city streets to riot. Stopping the spread was not important in the case of BLM, but deadly important when it came to people walking on the beach or protesting the lockdowns.
DeSantis has proven to be a consistent opponent of the lockdowns and mandates, despite Florida’s large population. This policy helped to provide proof that the lockdowns were pointless. If Florida (along with other defiant red states) could stay open without any noticeable jump in fatalities compared to blue states, then what was the point of the lockdowns and restrictions?
A trend is growing among the American public which runs contrary to the mainstream covid narrative. People are beginning to question the validity of government policies, the claims of snake oil salesmen like Anthony Fauci and the rules enforced by the CDC. Most importantly, they are beginning to apply skepticism to the mRNA vaccines, which is something that should have been done before they were ever distributed. At the very least, the pendulum seems to be swinging back after nearly three years of attempted medical authoritarianism.
end
People Died From mRNA-Vaccine-Damaged Hearts, New Peer-Reviewed German Study Provides Direct Evidence
Medical pathologists from Heidelberg University Hospital in Heidelberg, Germany have published direct evidence showing how people found dead after mRNA vaccination died. As this team of six scientists explore in their study, these mRNA-vaccinated patients suffered from heart damage because their hearts were attacked by their own immune cells. This autoimmune attack on their own heart cells then leads to their damaged hearts beating so many times per second that, once the tachycardia unexpectedly started, they died in minutes.
The article, “Autopsy-based histopathological characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination,” was published on Nov. 27, 2022, in the journal Clinical Research in Cardiology, the official journal of the German Cardiac Society. The research team autopsied 25 victims of different ages who were found dead at home within 28 days of vaccination. They looked at their heart tissue under the microscope to find out why these people died of cardiac rhythmic disruption when they had no apparent underlying heart disease.
In the authors’ own words: “Our findings establish the histological phenotype of lethal vaccination-associated myocarditis.”
Histological phenotype means direct observation of microscopic tissue.
In a video analyzing the results, nurse educator Dr. John Campbell, who is based in the United Kingdom, told his audience: “This is peer-reviewed. This is proper science, and a definitive pathological diagnosis by a group of leading German pathologists.” Campbell’s video has been viewed 918,000 times. He has 2.58 million subscribers on his channel.
Died of Ventricular Tachycardia or Fibrillation
Ventricular tachycardia is when the heart begins beating so fast that it doesn’t have time to refill with blood between beats, so it is not adequately pumping blood. The problem originates from the ventricles: the chambers that push the blood out of the heart to the rest of the body.
Fibrillation is when, instead of the heart actually beating, it starts to just quiver. This problem can originate from the ventricles or the atria. The atria are the upper chambers that basically suck blood into the heart by expanding and contracting. Though more people are familiar with A-Fib (atrial fibrillation), ventricular fibrillation is much more dangerous, and usually lethal within minutes.
The deceased whose hearts were autopsied in this study were found dead at home, each having died of ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation within 28 days of mRNA vaccination.
Visibly Damaged Hearts
Macrophages are large cells that are part of our immune system. When the immune system is functioning properly, our bodies use macrophages to attack infectious agents and other foreign matter. Macrophages are a key part of the innate immune system, helping with normal tissue development as well as with repairing damaged tissue, according to researchers from Northwestern University.
But in the case of the people who died suddenly within a month of being vaccinated, the body’s own macrophages permeated their heart muscle, chewing up the muscle and causing spots that disrupted the heart rhythm. This macrophage invasion appeared to have literally short-circuited the heart’s conduction of the electrical impulses, causing the heart to beat irregularly.
The irregular heartbeats led to a negative feedback loop, making the heart race faster and faster as it tries to right itself. When that happens, the heart is effectively pumping no blood, and the victim dies within seconds or minutes unless there is a defibrillator nearby—to deliver an electrical shock to the heart to help it get back into rhythm—and someone knows to use it immediately.
The peer-reviewed study from German researchers included microscope images showing the damage to the victims’ heart cells, the presence of lymphocytes (another kind of smaller immune cell) in the heart muscle, and invasive macrophages in the heart muscle. Both macrophages and lymphocytes called T-helper cells were found in the heart tissue. The immune cells were concentrated in spots, each of which is called a focus. Spots of damaged heart tissue like this can generate offbeat signals that disrupt the heart’s smooth rhythm.
There are thousands of cardiac cells in the heart. These cells aren’t passive, like the cells in your biceps that need separate nerves to make them move. Instead, cardiac cells generate their own electrical impulses.
The cells of cardiac muscle act like nerves as well, conducting signals to and from adjacent muscle cells. This synchronizes their contractions, as well as perpetuates the regular continuity of the heartbeat.
Once a heart is beating, it takes a lot to stop it. A focus that breaks up this rhythm is like a bad drummer in a middle-school band. It can cause a cascade of chaos that prevents the heart from pumping blood productively.
Myocarditis: A Recognized Vaccine Adverse Event
The WHO and the CDC do recognize myocarditis post-mRNA vaccination. Both regulatory agencies consider it a “recognized but rare complication.” Most doctors also dismiss myocarditis cases as “mild.”
But the deceased subjects of the German study, as Campbell points out, also had supposedly “mild” myocarditis. The myocarditis appeared only in microscopic spots here and there. However, the electrical disruption of these spots caused rapid and dramatic deaths. In other words, there is no mild myocarditis, as one parent of an mRNA-vaccine-injured teen named Aiden Ekanayake, said.
Campbell recommended that clinicians have a “high index of suspicion” that mRNA-vaccinated people might be subject to this autoimmune myocarditis so that they can diagnose and treat it while the people are still alive. Clinicians pretending that this vaccine injury is “rare and mild,” has led to countless potentially avoidable tragedies.
Your Body Attacking Your Own Heart Cells
To be clear, this is not the mRNA vaccine directly damaging the heart—it is worse. The mRNA is injected into your muscle cells, turning the cell into a factory producing COVID-19 spike proteins.
As a result of the mRNA immunization, your body generates an immune response against COVID-19 spike proteins.
Since your own muscle cells were used to make the COVID-19 spike proteins and may have them on the cell surface, your newly-weaponized immune cells targeting the spike protein may start attacking your own healthy muscle cells.
This new German study shows photographic evidence that this happens and has killed people.
Sir Austin Bradford Hill was an English medical statistician who established a set of epidemiological guidelines in 1965, now called the Bradford Hill criteria, which help prove cause and effect. If we apply the Bradford Hill criteria to this new research, it shows that the lethal myocarditis of these patients was indeed caused by mRNA vaccines. The German research demonstrated Bradford Hill’s criteria of strength (the more two things happen at the same time, the more likely one causes the other, even for rare events); consistency (the finding of sudden death from mRNA-vaccine-induced myocarditis has been happening consistently in different places and populations); specificity (for Bradford Hill, this is when a single cause produces a single effect. In this case the cause is the mRNA vaccine and the effect is myocarditis); and several more.
‘Unvaccinated patients who require transfusions can now access “pure blood” thanks to a new service called “SafeBlood Donation,” which was launched by a Swiss naturopath named George Della Pietra.
SafeBlood Donation, which currently has members in at least 16 countries, has the long-term goal of opening blood banks that provide its members with unvaccinated plasma, VICE reported.
According to George Della Pietra, the demand for “pure blood” has skyrocketed globally.
The Gateway Pundit previously reported that a peer-reviewed study in Italy found that 94% of people who experienced side effects after receiving mRNA vaccines had abnormal blood and contained foreign matter one month after vaccination.’
Right now, SafeBlood Donation has members in at least 16 countries where the goal is to establish blood banks that provide unvaccinated plasma for their members. The plan is also to pressure more hospitals and health authorities into allowing “directed donations” of specifically unvaccinated blood at traditional blood donation centers.
“Medical authorities only allow directed donations in specific situations where it is medically necessary, such as to source a rare blood type, but refuse growing requests for ‘unvaccinated’ blood on ethical and medical grounds,” one media outlet reported.’
“Here we show, in a cohort of 284,592 COVID-19-vaccinated individuals, using a sequence–symmetry analysis, that the odds of POTS are higher 90 days after vaccine exposure than 90 days before exposure…Our results identify a possible association between COVID-19 vaccination and incidence of POTS.”
We have been arguing about this for over one year now and slandered and smeared by media and the medical doctors. Why are they now recognizing this? We did not need the study?
Chad Atkins, the co-founder of a notable animal rescue group in Los Angeles, California died suddenly from “heart failure” while at home, according to TMZ. He was 44
is subverting the underlying immune system; Dr. S Belzberg advises that the elderly are particularly ravaged such that the more shots, the more risk of severe outcome and death in North America
“Respiratory syncytial virus in hematopoietic cell transplant recipients and patients with hematologic malignancies” (Khawaja); 3 studies that shed light with exploding RSV; did we screw our kids
Are the COVID-19 mRNA gene injections (vaccines) the reason why we are seeing this explosion of RSV across the US and Canada? Was it the lockdowns and school closures that weakened and dampened a normally functional immune system in children? Is it the worthless, ineffective, and harmful blue surgical and white cloth (man-made) masks? I say all of these…
Data of 72 Million Insured Shows “Sudden, Unexpected Deaths” Exploded in Germany Since 2021
December 14, 2022 2:43 pm
This is an explosive report out of Germany showing a massive increase in “sudden deaths” following COVID “vaccines” that has not received much exposure in the Alternative Media yet, because the sources are all in the German language. Pierre L. Gosselin of the “NoTricksZone” blog has provided an English report of the data. The report shows a 4-fold increase in “sudden deaths” following the introduction of COVID vaccines in Germany, compared to previous years. The German AfD Parliamentary Group tried to do damage control by issuing a Press Release on these findings. However, they do NOT dispute the data. They basically claim that the lower numbers in previous years were due to “errors in the input or transmission (of the data).”
Pathologist and Diagnostic Lab Owner Addresses Common Theories on COVID “Vaccine” Ingredients
December 14, 2022 5:10 pm
I have not previously published any articles about the alleged contents of COVID-19 vaccines, mainly because I am not sure that anyone can confidently state what is really in these proprietary “vaccines” by simply analyzing them with a microscope. And even those who have endeavored to examine them, how do we know if the vials were stored properly or contaminated before being examined? But the biggest reason is that it really doesn’t matter that much what is actually in them, what matters is how they are infecting people, and we have more than enough evidence that nobody should be injecting these bioweapons into their bodies. So many theories and reports have been published about what is actually in these vials, and many publishers now accept these theories as fact, such as “self-replicating graphene oxide nanobots that are sending out blue tooth signals.” Now this may or may not be true, I honestly don’t know, and I have never found enough convincing evidence to publish an article on this topic one way or another. But I do think it is important to give exposure to Dr. Ryan Cole’s perspective on this, because he is a pathologist who is also the owner of a diagnostics laboratory. So he at least brings some credibility to this subject, since he earns his living from laboratory analyses. One thing I have published since the beginning, when the Pfizer and Moderna shots were given emergency use authorizations by the UK and the United States, is that pre-authorization data, specifically what was supplied originally to the EMA, showed that many of the shots did not have mRNA strands in tact, up to 55%, which means the shots would not work they way they were designed to work. Combine that with mishandling the vials that need to be kept at extremely low temperatures, and you probably have a bunch of shots given to people that were no better than placebos, which explains why not everyone suffers adverse reactions. Here is The Exposé’s excellent article on Dr. Cole’s investigations into this matter.
Arctic blast hits Asia. Russia is shifting its energy shipments eastward@
(zerohedge)
Rare Triple-Dip La Nina Spurs Blast Of Cold Air In Asia While Russia Shifts Energy Shipments East
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 02:45 AM
Weather officials warn that a rare triple-dip La Nina has sent parts of Northeast Asia into a deep freeze that will increase heating demand and push up fuel prices.
Across the Northern Hemisphere, the US, Europe, and parts of Northeast Asia are experiencing below-freezing temperatures.
The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction focused on China, Japan, and South Korea and reported below-average temperatures for those countries. This chill is similar to what Europe and parts of the US are currently feeling.
Readers have been more than informed about the weather phenomenon known as La Nina wreaking havoc on the world. Last month, the World Meteorological Organization wrote that La Nina would result in lower-than-normal temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere.
Bloomberg provided weather outlooks for China, Japan, and South Korea, the epicenter of global manufacturing, as these countries are plagued with cold weather in the weeks ahead:
China
China will see two cold snaps, according to forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration. The first — which will run from Tuesday through Thursday — is expected to bring temperatures as low as minus 36 Celsius in the Inner Mongolian city of Hulunbuir, while also pushing down the mercury in Beijing.
Another snap is predicted to sweep across most parts of central, east and northwest China from Thursday through Sunday. Southern parts of the country could see record-low temperatures for mid-December on Sunday, while dry and frigid weather will reduce rainfall, the administration said Monday. That will have an impact on agriculture, particularly livestock and greenhouse farming, as it increases heating costs. Fruits, vegetable crops and even aquaculture in some areas are vulnerable to frost damage, the National Meteorological Center said.
A sudden drop in temperatures caused electricity demand to surge in Guizhou province in southern China, forcing grid officials there to order some aluminum smelters to cut power use this week. On top of the freezing weather, nine Chinese provinces have also been whipped by sandstorms so far this week, which can hamper solar power generation. Elevated demand for heating fuels may not ease until around the Lunar New Year holidays in late January when factories power down for the holiday, Chinese consultant Fengkuang Logistics said in a note. Still, activity in many of China’s mega-cities has ground to a halt amid severe virus outbreaks.
Japan
It’s getting colder in northern Japan — with Asahikawa in Hokkaido possibly experiencing temperatures as low as minus 10 degrees Celsius next week, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Meanwhile, there’s a 40% chance eastern and western Japan will get below-normal temperatures from December through February, the JMA said.
Japan has been stocking up on LNG supply to prepare for the winter months, with inventories held by electricity producers well-above the five-year average. The government is also asking citizens to save power to the best of their abilities, and the governor of Tokyo has even advised people to wear turtleneck sweaters to stay warm.
South Korea
Cold-wave alerts have been issued for most parts of South Korea, including Seoul and Incheon, with heavy snow expected in the northern Chungcheong province this week, according to Korea Meteorological Administration.
Temperatures are dropping significantly, but the country has a 50% chance of seeing normal temperatures in January and February, the weather agency said. South Korea will use nuclear power and will optimize its maintenance schedule, while also making additional purchases of coal and LNG on spot markets, the energy ministry said in a statement.
Month ahead temperature forecasts via Bloomberg for China.
Japan
South Korea
Cold weather on the other side of the world will mean Russia will have a buyer for its energy products while European Union bans imports of Russian crude and crude products and reduces natural gas intake.
The crude shunned by Europe has been diverted to Asia via a flotilla of tankers. Bloomberg data shows a large majority of all crude shipped from Russian ports is headed to Asia.
Despite all the Western sanctions to paralyze Moscow, Russian energy products still flow worldwide but have shifted mainly to Asia.
And while climate alarmists blame every change in the Earth’s weather on man-made greenhouse gases … we must point out that even the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says, “El Nino and La Nina are naturally occurring climate patterns and humans have no direct ability to influence their onset, intensity or duration.”
So perhaps all this extreme weather worldwide is the work of La Nina rather than man. This is an uncomfortable truth for all those who just attended COP27 in Egypt.
8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.
END
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0642 DOWN .0033
USA/ YEN 135.55 UP 1.19/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//
GBP/USA 1.2314 DOWN 0.01072
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN7.80 PTS OR 0.25%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 304.88 POINTS OR 1.55%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.65% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 304/88 PTS OR 1.55%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.80 PTS OR 0.25%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.65%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 104.51 OR 0.37%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1778.50
silver:$23.17
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 103.82 UP .47 POINTS from WEDNESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN) AT 6.9732
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9962
TURKISH LIRA: 18.65 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.249
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.443% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.472 DOWN 7 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 104.28 UP 0.86 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 69.76 PTS OR 0.73%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 473,97 POINTS OR 3.28%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 208.02 PTS OR 3.09%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 141.80 OR 1.20%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 847.55 PTS OR 3.45%
WTI Oil price 76,77 12: EST
Brent Oil: 81.88 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 64.35/ ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 36/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.087
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.273 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0627 DOWN .0048 OR 48 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2185 DOWN .02332 or 233 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.273% DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 137,65 UP 2.29/YEN DOWN 229 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3652 UP 0.01013 (CDN dollar, UP 101 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 76.01
Brent OIL: 81.31
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS pts to 3.448%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 3.491%
USA dollar index:104.17 UP .78 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.64
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 64.35 down 1 AND 36/10 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 763.13 PTS OR 2.25%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 395.71 PTS OR 3.37%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.77 UP 1.63 PTS (7.71)%
GLD: $165.35 DOWN 2.27 OR 1.65%
SLV/ $21.24 DOWN $0.75 OR 2.41%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
EARLY MORNING TRADING//FOMC
Soft-Landing-Seers Slayed Amid Macro-Meltdown: Stocks Dump, Dollar Jumps
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 04:01 PM
The day did not start off well at all as The ECB hiked rates (as expected) but had a very hawkish tone to its outlook, cutting growth and hiking inflation forecasts. And then it got worse with Empire Manufacturing tumbling, a big miss for retail sales, worsening continuing claims data, worse than expected Empire Fed sentiment, a big drop in Industrial Production and Manufacturing output, and finally the weakest growth in business inventories since April 2021. Additionally, the only thing that beat was initial claims… which is hawkish for The Fed.
Rate-trajectory expectations shifted more hawkishly on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks took the brunt of the reality check with longest-duration big-tech clubbed like a baby seal. Selling pressure started as Europe opened overnight then accelerated on the dismal macro data. We do note that stocks bounced a little in the mid-afternoon on the Philly Fed job lies report. But by the close the selling (ahead of tomorrow’s massive Op-Ex) continued…
Small Caps have almost erased the entire ‘soft-landing/pause/pivot’ rally from November’s CPI…
The S&P broke below its 100DMA, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq broke below their 50DMA. The Dow remains well above its technically important levels for now…
Treasuries were very mixed today with the long-end dramatically outperforming amid a major curve flattening (30Y -5bps, 2Y +4bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y Yield fell back to the post-CPI lows…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) flattened (inverted more) to unchanged on the week (erasing the CPI steepening)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar surged back higher today, erasing all the post-CPI losses…
Source: Bloomberg
The euro pumped and dumped around The ECB’s hawkish statement…
Source: Bloomberg
Cable tumbled today after BoE hiked rates 50bps (like everyone else) having reached its highest since June…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin extended its slide from yesterday…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold dropped back below $1800 after yesterday’s surge up to $1835…
Oil prices slipped lower on the day amid a stronger dollar and weaker macro data with WTI sliding but holding just above $76
Finally, did Powell just unleash this reversion to reality?
Source: Bloomberg
To re-tighten financial conditions to policy direction…
Source: Bloomberg
That really would upset the ‘soat-landing-seers’.
EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING
ii) USA DATA
No surprise here except the fact it was admitted by the Philadelphia Fed
(zerohedge)
Here Comes The Job Shock: Philadelphia Fed Admits US Jobs “Overstated” By At Least 1.1 Million
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 02:44 PM
Regular readers are well aware that back in July, Zero Hedge first (long before it became a running theme among so-called “macro experts”) pointed out that a gaping 1+ million job differential had opened up between the closely-watched and market-impacting, if easily gamed and manipulated, Establishment Survey and the far more accurate if volatile, Household Survey – the two core components of the monthly non-farm payrolls report.
Whether this divergence was due to wrong seasonal adjustments (a remnant of the overreaction taken by the Dept of Labor following the covid crunch to normalize for a new normal labor market), due to erroneous Birth-Death assumptions (here too, the Dept of Labor was assuming early cycle new business creation which clearly is wrong with the economy late cycle and millions of businesses shutting down, ignoring the open PPP fraud that took place in early/mid-2000s as everyone “opened up” businesses to get free money from the government), due to the Establishment Survey inability to tell the difference between full, part and multiple-jobs – as a reminder we first showed that since March, the US had lost 400K full-time jobs offset by far lower paying part-time jobs as well as double-counted multiple jobholders…
… due to the record high rate of estimation – recall the 49% Establishment survey response rate was much lower than the 70-75% rate typical in November, meaning the Dept of Labor was literally making numbers up to “complete” the survey…
… or some other reason, perhaps including the Biden admin tapping certain Bureau of Labor Statistics officials on the shoulder and advising them to show strong numbers if they want to keep their… well… jobs, we did not know, but we did know that according to the Household Survey, just 12,000 jobs were created since March, while according to the Establishment Survey – which moves markets and sets Fed policy – the increase in jobs over the same period was 2.692 million!
We bring all this up again because late on Dec 13, the Philadelphia Fed published something shocking: as part of the regional Fed’s quarterly reassessment of payrolls in the form of an “early benchmark revision of state payroll employment“, the Philly Fed confirmed what we have been saying since July, namely that US payrolls are overstated by at least 1.1 million, and likely much more!
First, some background.
As the Philly Fed notes, “estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Early benchmark estimates indicated higher changes in four states, lower changes in 29 states and the District of Columbia, and lesser changes in the remaining 17 states.
Wait, the Philly Fed tabulates jobs? Isn’t that the jobs of the BLS?
Why yes, the BLS does that every month. The problem is that to successfully publish a report within days after any given month ends, the BLS report gives up in accuracy what it makes up in speed. Far more accurate reports are available elsewhere, they just come with a big lag. This is where the Philadelphia Fed comes in: from the latest quarterly report…
Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the sample data from the BLS’s CES that are issued monthly on a timely basis. All percentage change calculations are expressed as annualized rates. Read more about our methodology. Learn more about interpreting our early benchmark estimates.
Ok, ok, what did this “more accurate”, “more comprehensive” report find? It found that…
In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.
Remember what we said in July when we first looked at the March-June divergence between the Household and Establishment survey: we said that “since March, the Establishment Survey shows a gain of 1.124 million jobs while the Household Survey shows an employment loss of 347K!” Said otherwise, we found that payrolls “calculated” by the Establishment Survey were overestimated by 1.5 million. Shockingly, the Philly Fed seems to agree, and reports that instead of the roughly 1.1 million jobs reported by the BLS, only 10,500 new jobs were added!
And some more data:
Payroll jobs in the nation remained essentially flat from March through June 2022 after adjusting for QCEW data:
Less than the 3.0 percent growth indicated by the sum of the states
Less than the 2.8 percent growth indicated by the U.S. CES estimates
This is shown graphically in the chart below: specifically, the analysis looks at the quarter in the red box, where the green line, or the more accurate “early benchmark” revision of official data, dipped decidedly below the CES trendline (i.e., the nonfarm payrolls).
Of course, the above analysis only looks at the March-June period. What about subsequent months and quarters? Well, we will have to wait at least 3 months to get the June-Sept data, but using the same approach which we now know works, and which looks at the divergence between Household and Establishment surveys, it is safe to say that the job “overstating” which was 1.5 million in June according to Zero Hedge and 1.1 million according to the Philly Fed, has almost doubled to 2.7 million from March to November. The only question is what the final, far more accurate Philly Fed estimate will be when it is published some time in 6 months time.
But an even bigger question is when does the BLS realize (or rather admit) what is going on and engages in a shotgun backward revision of data? The most likely answer is that the BLS will simply wait until one of its annual historical data revision periods, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics quietly admits that historical data was higher by a few million, and re-benchmarks current months going forward as if nothing had happened. In the meantime, however, the Fed is shaping monetary policy using the clearly flawed assumption that the US labor market is “hot”, “tight” and “strong”, when in reality we now know that between March and June, monthly payrolls were overstated by about 350,000. This matters because this is what the BLS reported for payrolls for those months:
April 368K
May 386K
June 293K
Now take those numbers and adjust them to subtract an average of 350K from each month (to get the revised Philly Fed payroll over this period) and you get this:
April 18K
May 36K
June 57K
And visually.
Still think the Fed would be hiking 75bps this summer if instead of an average monthly job gain of 350K, Powell was seeing zero monthly payroll increases?
And even more importantly, now that the cat is out of the bag and the Philly Fed has introduced this huge credibility issue in all recent payrolls data, how long until this becomes a political issue, and how long until Republicans – who take control of the House in January – start hearings to demonstrate to the US that the collapse in the labor market did not start with the Republican takeover but was well in place last summer.
And finally, how long until the Fed – which made it clear that it is no longer focused purely on inflation numbers (which are sliding fast anyway) but will also be looking at clearly wrong jobs data – makes it a point that the US labor market is in far worse shape, it is in fact contracting, than it was when it decided to hike 75bps several times in a row?
A clear sign that the uSA is in a recession: retail sales tumble in November. The end of California’s stimmies , a good reason for that
(zerohedge)
US Retail Sales Tumble In November As California ‘Anti-Inflation’ Stimmies End
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 08:40 AM
US Retail sales notably disappointed in November, just as BofA expected…
Against expectations of a 0.2% MoM drop, US retail sales tumbled 0.6% MoM – the weakest since last December…
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY basis, this is the weakest since Dec 2020.
Core retail sales dropped 0.2% MoM (notably worse than the +0.2% MoM expected).
Finally, the control group – which flows through to GDP -saw retail sales decline 0.2% MoM (against expectations of a 0.1% rise).
Nine of 13 retail categories fell last month, according to the report, including electronics, furniture and building materials stores. Vehicle sales also declined, due in part to a drop in the prices of used cars and trucks. The value of sales at gasoline stations were down 0.1% as pump prices fell.
Sales at restaurants and bars – the only service-sector category in the report – rose 0.9% in November, the fourth-straight increase.
What’s behind the retail sales miss?
The unwind of California’s one-time “anti-inflation” stimmy check
Credit card spending in October was boosted by the additional round of Prime Day and related promotions, as well as one-off stimulus payments in California (CA).
The disproportionate weakness in total online retail spending and total card spending in CA suggests that there was negative payback in November for the October distortions.
END
Strange data here: after thousands of tech laid off workers every week, one would expect a huge rise!! Nope
not with this fraudulent entry
(zerohedge)
Initial Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Tumble To 3 Month Low
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 08:59 AM
Thousands of tech workers laid off every single week as the Silicon Valley ponzi crumbles under the weight of the Fed’s rate hikes? Not according to the Department of Labor, which moments ago reported that in the latest week, initial claims unexpectedly tumbled by 20K to 211K from 231K, the lowest since September 23 and far below the consensus estimate of an increase to 233K; at the same time unadjusted claims dropped from 288K – the highest since January – to 248.9K.
Meanwhile, continuing claims continued their ascent, and in the latest week rose from 1.670MM to 1.671MM…
… which while also missing the exp 1.674MM was the highest print since February.
On a 4-week average basis, initial claims are almost back to unchanged on a Y/Y basis, although it is safe to say that there was a pronounced seasonal component to today’s unexpectedly strong print.
So just as sliding JOLTS job openings data series and the Household survey both scream labor market slowdown, the Dept of Labor decides to throw in yet another stick in the spokes of the Fed’s induction machinery, and hits pause – if only for another week – on expectations that the job market is heading for a recession. That this is not good news for stocks is obvious: only look at futures sliding since the print to fresh lows is all you need to know
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Although manufacturing is around 8% of USA GDP, a drop in annual industrial production is a clear sign that the USA is in a deep recession
(zerohedge)
US Industrial Production Annual Growth Slowest Since March 2021
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 09:24 AM
After a slew of weak data, US Industrial Production did not do anything to help matters as it fell 0.2% MoM (worse than the 0.0% expected) – its weakest MoM drop since Sept 2021.
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY basis, the +2.5% growth is the weakest since March 2021.
Manufacturing also tumbled in November, dropping 0.6% MoM – also the worst since Sept 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall capacity utilization dropped further in November to 79.66% – the lowest since Feb 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Is this what Powell wants to see? Is monetary policy’s long and variable lag finally catching up to the real economy?
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Factory activity weak in New York and Philadelphia regions in December
Dec. 15, 2022 at 8:51 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
The numbers: Two regional gauges of manufacturing activity indicated weakness in December, according to data released Thursday.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index improved to a reading of negative 13.8 in December from negative 19.4 in the prior month. Economists had expected a reading of negative 12 according to a Wall Street Journal survey of economists.
The Empire State Index, meanwhile, declined sharply to a reading of negative 11.2 in December from 4.5 in the prior month, the New York Fed said. Economists had expected a reading of negative 0.5, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions.
Key details: In the New York region, the details were not as weak as the headline. The index for new orders fell 0.3 points to negative 3.6. Shipments fell 2.7 points to 5.3 in the month. The average workweek did slump 11.4 points to negative 4.5.
In the Philadelphia region, the details were weak. The index of new orders fell to negative 25.8 in December from negative 16.2 in the prior month.
Shipments fell to negative 6.2 from 7 in the prior month.
Big picture: The national reading on manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management moved into contractionary territory last month. Higher interest rates are curbing business investment.
..
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.
This is a must must read as to why the Supreme Court may consider hearing it.
Tim Canova: Supreme Court Considers Case Seeking to Overturn 2020 Presidential Election
Guest post by Tim Canova
While there has been much public attention on the U.S. Supreme Court’s present consideration of the “independent state legislature” theory in Moore v. Harper involving North Carolina’s redistricting, that case would not immediately upend the 2020 Presidential Election. In contrast, a little-known case that appeared recently on the Court docket could do just that. The case of Brunson v. Adams, not even reported in the mainstream media, was filed pro se by ordinary American citizens – four brothers from Utah — seeking the removal of President Biden and Vice President Harris, along with 291 U.S. Representatives and 94 U.S. Senators who voted to certify the Electors to the Electoral College on January 6, 2021 without first investigating serious allegations of election fraud in half a dozen states and foreign election interference and breach of national security in the 2020 Presidential Election. The outcome of such relief would presumably be to restore Donald Trump to the presidency.
The important national security interests implicated in this case allowed the Brunsons to bypass an appeal that was frozen at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit and get the case to the Supreme Court which has now scheduled a hearing for January 6, 2023. The Brunson Petition for a Writ of Certiorari would require the votes of only four Justices to move the case forward.
It seems astounding that the Court would wade into such waters two years to the day after the Congressional vote to install Joe Biden as President. But these are not normal times. Democrats may well push legislation in this month’s lame duck session of Congress to impose term limits and a mandatory retirement age for Justices, and thereby open the door to packing the Court. Such a course would seem to be clear violations of Article III, Section 1 of the Constitution which provides that Justices “shall hold their Offices during good Behavior.” In addition to such institutional threats to the Supreme Court, several Justices and their families have been living under constant threats to their personal security since the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
Perhaps these institutional and security threats have provided powerful incentives for the Court to put Brunson v. Adams on its dockets as a shield to deter any efforts by the lame duck Congress to infringe on the Court’s independence. Or perhaps conservatives on the Court are serious about using the Brunson case as a sword to remove public officials who they believe have violated their constitutional Oaths of office by rubber-stamping Electors on Jan. 6th without first conducting any investigation of serious allegations of election fraud and foreign election interference.
Moreover, recent weeks have brought a cascade of news suggesting the likelihood of an impending constitutional crisis that could be difficult to resolve without the Court’s intervention. It is now clear that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was colluding with social media giants Twitter and Facebook to censor news of Hunter Biden’s laptop in the weeks leading up to the 2020 election – a most egregious First Amendment violation intended to rig the election outcome and perhaps to install an unaccountable and criminal puppet government. Meanwhile, the January 6th committee may soon send a criminal referral to the Justice Department to arrest President Trump even though his reinstated tweets are a reminder that he was not calling for insurrection but for peaceful protest on January 6th. More recently, the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) was reportedly working with Big Tech to censor election critics.
Supreme Court Justices may well see these approaching storm clouds and conclude that the Court’s intervention is necessary to prevent larger civil unrest resulting from constitutional violations that are undermining public trust and confidence in the outcomes of both the 2020 and 2022 elections. When criminals break the law — state and federal statutes — to rig an election, we are dependent on prosecutions by law enforcement agencies that have sadly become politicized and complicit. When they break the Constitution — the supreme law of the land — to rig an election, the only recourse may be the Supreme Court or military tribunals.
As the Brunson lawsuit argues, all of Congress was put on notice prior to its January 6th vote by more than a hundred of its own members detailing serious allegations of election frauds and calling for creation of an electoral commission to investigate the allegations.
Moreover, the Office of Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) was required to submit a report on foreign threats to the 2020 Presidential election by December 18, 2020. That deadline was set by executive order and by Congress itself. When December 18th came and went without ODNI submitting its report, Congress should have started asking questions and investigating. In fact, DNI John Ratcliffe announced on that day that the 17 U.S. intelligence agencies he was overseeing had found evidence of foreign election interference but were split as to its significance and whether such breach of national security was sufficient to overturn the outcome of the election. And yet there was no action whatsoever by Congress, no inquiry and no investigation. Instead, Congress approved the possibly fraudulent election results on January 6th without asking any questions of the DNI and the Intelligence Community.
When the results of the 1876 presidential election were in doubt, Congress created a special Electoral Commission made up of five House members, five Senators, and five Supreme Court Justices to investigate. In contrast, in early 2021 Congress had nearly two weeks to investigate before the January 20th date of the Presidential Inauguration. Had Congress waited even just one more day to January 7th, they would have received the long-awaited ODNI report reflecting a split in the Intelligence Community and the DNI’s own conclusion that the People’s Republic of China had interfered to influence the outcome of the presidential election. As Dr. Barry A. Zulauf, the Analytic Ombudsman for the Intelligence Community, concluded at the time, the Intelligence Community shamefully delayed their findings until after the January 6th Electoral College certification by Congress because of their political disagreements with the Trump administration. This paints a picture of collusion and conspiracy involving members of Congress and U.S. intelligence agencies to coverup evidence of foreign election interference and constituting the crime of High Treason.
The Brunson lawsuit does not claim the election was stolen, merely that a large majority of Congress, by failing to investigate such serious allegations of election rigging and breaches of national security, violated their Oaths to protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic – an Oath also taken by Supreme Court Justices and members of the U.S. military.
The fact that the Brunson case has made it to the Court’s docket suggests profound concerns about a lawless January 6th Congressional committee, politicized federal law enforcement and intelligence agencies, and major constitutional violations intended to overthrow an elected government by manipulating the outcome of the presidential election.
Los Angeles’s new mayor declares a state of emergency over the homelessness
(zerohedge)
LA’s New Mayor Declares ‘State Of Emergency’ Over Homelessness
WEDNESDAY, DEC 14, 2022 – 10:40 PM
After making it a central part of her campaign, Los Angeles’ new mayor Karen Bass declared homelessness a ‘state of emergency’ in the city.
The declaration “will recognize the severity of Los Angeles’ crisis and break new ground to maximize the ability to urgently move people inside,” according to a statement from Bass’ office, on the same day she visited the city’s Emergency Operations Center, ABC News reports.
According to a three-day study conducted earlier this year, just under 42,000 people experienced homelessness in the city of LA, according to the Greater Los Angeles Homeless Count by the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority (LAHSA).
At least 69,144 people experienced homelessness in the same-named county – a 4.1% increase over 2020, and a 1.7% rise in the city itself.
Local COVID-era policies like eviction moratoriums and rentals assistance, as well as federal assistance have helped people stay housed throughout the pandemic, according to LAHSA.
However, many of those policies have since ended or are about to end, and it’s left unhoused and people facing housing insecurity without a safety net, LAHSA reports. -ABC News
As a House representative, Bass was instrumental in funding millions for long-term shelter solutions for homeless residents, job training and career development programs. She also backed substance abuse programs.
“These investments to combat homelessness, improve community safety and assist families with the increasing costs of living in our congressional district are coming at a crucial time,” she said in a March statement. “Now that we have these new allocated funds on the federal level, we have to ensure that they reach our communities as soon as possible.”
During her campaign, Bass vowed to “House 15,000 people by the end of year one, dramatically reduce street homelessness, end street encampments,” and “lead on mental health and substance abuse treatment.”
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USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//DERIVATIVES
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SWAMP STORIES
This is very interesting!!
(zerohedge)
Get Woke, Go Broke: Washington Post Staff Meeting Erupts Into Chaos As Layoffs Announced
THURSDAY, DEC 15, 2022 – 12:20 PM
After losing more than half a million subscribers in the past two years, did the far-left writers and employees at the Washington Post really think they would avoid any consequences?
It would appear that they are exactly as oblivious as many people suspected.
A recent hidden camera video has surfaced of the latest Washington Post employee “town hall” meeting, in which CEO Fredrick Ryan delivers the bad news that the company will be executing worker layoffs after subscription revenues plummeted.
Not surprisingly, the employees (presumably made up primarily of journalists) erupted into a mass chatter of squawking chickens, demanding answers as well as job guarantees.
The Washington Post has long operated as a mouthpiece/bullhorn for establishment propaganda, and has functioned as an attack dog against conservatives for years rather than an accurate news source. Specifically, the outlet’s use of fraudulent “fact checking” has contributed to a considerable decline in public trust, and this habit accelerated after Jeff Bezos acquired the Post in 2013. Amazon must not be doing so great this holiday season, and funds are drying up.
The corporate media is facing a reckoning this year going into 2023. Their audience numbers are in steep decline and have been since before the covid pandemic. While PPP loans and stimulus measures may have kept some of these outlets afloat, even that life raft is now disappearing along with ever shrinking ad revenues. The real culprit behind the fall of these companies, though, is themselves.
Woke zealotry does not sell. This is a fact proven time and time again, even more so in the past two years. When a media edifice chooses to cater to a tiny percentage of the population, many of them younger zennials with little to no money, it is only a matter of time before they face a profit collapse. The Washington Post is a victim of its own elitist ideology, and many of the employees are just as guilty as the leadership. Get woke, go broke.
ESHs and stocks rallied early in the US on Wednesday on expiry-related buying, pattern buying for the expected Fed Day rally, and widespread hope and believe that the FOMC Communique and Powell would suggest, hint, or proclaim that a Fed Pivot is nigh.
ESHs vacillated between small losses and gains from their 18:00 ET open until they jumped higher at 19:41 ET. ESHs peaked two hour later. They then declined until 6:18 ET. After a spike higher, ESHs and European stocks sank to new daily lows. A bottom appeared at 8:14 ET. The rally for the NYSE open commenced. Traders poured into ESHs and stocks when the NYSE opened. ESHs surged 37 handles to a daily high of 4086.50 at 11:33 ET, three minutes after the European close.
The ensuing moderate equity decline ended at 13:00 ET. It was time to get long for the expected dovish FOMC Communique and Powell’s Press Conference. ESHs hit a new high of 4089.50 at 13:43 ET.
FOMC Communique HighlightsHike rates by 50bps to 4.25% to 4.5% target rangeOngoing rate hikes will be appropriateMedian funds rate forecast was raised to 5.1% for 2023 vs 4.6% forecast in SeptemberFed officials see fed funds peak at 5.25% in 2023 & at 2023 yearend will be 5% to 5.25%7 of 19 officials saw ’23 rates above 5.25%Raised 2022 GDP to 0.5% from 0.2%; 0.5% for 2023, and 1.6% for 2024Inflation remains elevatedMedian Unemployment forecast 4.6% in 2023 and 2024 Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 0.50% in final meeting of 2022 “Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production,” the Fed said in its statement. “Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.” The central bank also left wording in its statement saying it anticipates “ongoing increases” in interest rates, implying the Fed does not intend to pause rate hikes imminently. “The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time,” the Fed’s statement said… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rate-announcement-december-14-180643459.html
@JackFarley96: The language in the Fed’s December press release is nearly identical to its November press release. Russia’s war against Ukraine is now “contributing to” upward pressure on inflation instead of “creating additional” upward pressure on inflation. https://twitter.com/JackFarley96/status/1603109154700288001
ESHs and stocks tanked on the more hawkish than expected FOMC Communique. ESHs hit a bottom of 4022.25 at 14:09 ET. After a 20-something handle bounce, ESHs went inert as traders awaited Powell.
Powell Press Conference Highlights We understand the hardship inflation is causing and are committed to bringing it down Without price stability, the economy does NOT work for anyone Committed to reducing the size of our balance sheet Monetary policy needs to be restrictive for some timeEconomy has slowed significantly from last year’s paceThe job market remains tight despite the economic slowdownThe labor market remains out of balance, demand greatly exceeds supplyLabor Force Participation Rate is little changed over the past yearParticipants see inflation risks are weighted to the upsideInflation expectations remains well anchoredIt will take sustainably more evidence to gain confidence inflation is on sustained downward pathFuture Fed actions depends on data50bps is a historically large increaseFed focus is NOT on short-term moves but persistent onesNot at a restrictive enough policy stance yet ESHs and stocks tumbled anew when Powell reiterated his hawkish schtick.
Powell Q&A HighlightsEarlier, the speed at which we hiked rates was important, not so important nowThe important question now is duration and peak of rate hikesPolicy is restrictive now, but not restrictive enough even with today’s rate hikeHousing services inflation is high but trending lower“The big story will really be the rest of it [core inflation], and there’s not much progress there. Core services inflation will take a while to get downFebruary rate hike will depend on dataThere could be a structural problem in the labor market (Yea, due to Biden’s socialism!) ESHs bottomed at 3997.00 at 14:34 ET. The usual suspects pined and needed to get ESHs above 4000. So, ESHs were manipulated to 4028.25 in ten minutes. Alas, Powell’s Q&A was also hawkish; so, ESHs and stocks retreated and vacillated wildly in a large range as sellers and expiry-related schemes fought.
When the final hour arrived, the last-hour manipulation appeared. Some pundits attributed the rally to this Powell response to a question: “We’re getting close to that level, we think, of sufficiently restrictive.”
Some pundits, especially the broken clocks that have been forecasting a Fed pivot since March, hyperventilated over Powell’s response to a question about changing the Fed’s inflation target: ‘not now’ “under any circumstances” but “it may be a longer-run project at some point.”
ESHs peaked at 4071.50, +74.50 from the low! Alas, sellers returned; ESHs hit 4012.00 at 15:33 ET. After a 32-handle manipulation in 18 minutes, ESHs retreated into the close.
Key point from yesterday’s festivities: Despite overwhelmingly hawkishness in the FOMC Communique and Powell’s Presser/Q&A, the usual suspects went gaga over two modestly dovish responses by Powell to reporters’ questions! Much of the Street will grasp at the flimsiest straw to be irrationally exuberant!
BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: The Fed: We’re hawkish! We have more work to do! The market: Got it, so you’re doing another step-down to a 25bp rate hike in February and will be cutting rates by later in the year… “When the market just ignores the Fed, they have to do more:” ex-NY Fed President Bill Dudley
Yesterday’s King Report: What caused the equity tumble on Tuesday? There was NO news. Either traders were too long and there few organic buyers, or someone has non-public info about the FOMC Communique or Powell’s Presser.
We opined that the robust financial market rally over the past two months greatly loosened financial conditions and rescinded the past two 75bp rate hikes, which would induce the Fed to be hawkish. The FOMC Communique and Powell’s comments strongly suggest that Fed officials are extremely irritated and vexed that the financial markets and Street shills still believe that the Fed is about to pivot. The Fed to pivot narrative has persisted since March.
Positive aspects of previous session Bonds rallied to a small gain after Powell’s comments The DJTA rallied 85.72 on Delta’s 2022 EPS hike to 3.07 to 3.12 from 2.89
Negative aspects of previous session Equities collapsed after the Fed and Powell were much more hawkish than expected Recession angst propped up bonds
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How soon will the usual suspects proclaim that a Fed pivot is nigh?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Up; Last Hour:Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4004.91 Previous session High/Low: 4053.76; 3965.65
The SEC is finally trying to curtail high frequency trading and payment for order flow abuses.
SEC Set to Propose Rules That Would Squeeze Stock-Market Middlemen -WSJ Agency considers biggest overhaul of stock-market structure since mid-2000s The centerpiece of the SEC’s plans is a proposal for brokers to send many small-investor orders into auctions… The auction would apply to so-called marketable orders – less than $200,000 in size and placed by investors who average fewer than 40 trades a day… The SEC says brokers send more than 90% of marketable orders to wholesalers… A second proposal would level would seek to level the playing field between exchanges and wholesalers… The proposal would allow exchanges to quote prices in tighter increments… the proposal would force wholesalers to trade stocks in the same increments… SEC commissioners are also set to propose a rule requiring brokers to seek out the markets where the customers’ securities trades can be executed on the most favorable terms… Brokers are already subject to… the “best execution” rule, but the SEC’s version is designed to be tougher… In a fourth proposal, the SEC is set to update and expand a more than 20-year-old rule that requires wholesalers and exchanges to publish monthly data about the quality of stock pricing they provide for investors… https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-set-to-propose-rules-that-would-squeeze-stock-market-middlemen-11671033619
House of Representatives – Judicial Committee December 14, 2022 Mr. Timothy Cook Chief Executive Officer Apple One Apple Park Way Cupertino, CA 95014 Dear Mr. Cook: Big Tech is out to get conservatives, and is increasingly willing to undermine First Amendment values by complying with the Biden Administration’s directives that suppress freedom of speech online. This approach undermines fundamental American principles and allows powerful government actors to silence political opponents and stifle opposing viewpoints. Publicly available information suggests that your company’s treatment of certain speakers and content may stem from government directives or guidance designed to suppress dissenting views. Therefore, we write to request more information about the nature and extent of your company’s collusion with the Biden Administration…Although the full extent of Big Tech’s collusion with the Biden Administration is unknown, there are prominent examples and strong indications of Big Tech censorship following directives or pressure from executive branch entities… The collusion of Big Tech and Big Government to advance censorship undeniably undermines liberty and jeopardizes our country’s First Amendment values and protections… Jim Jordan, Ranking Member (Links for letters to Apple et al above)
Today – The ECB and Bank of England are expected to hike their benchmark rates by 50bps. Many traders are long beaucoup December calls because they expected the Fed to suggest or hint at a pivot. That ship has sailed; so, bulls will need a different impetus to induce the masses to buy stuff and push expiring December calls into profitability. If no impetus materializes, the usual suspects will need to manipulate stuff higher. The probable biggest impediment to the expiry manipulation is the presence of defensive asset allocators in the market. This will be a key for today.
Expected econ data: Dec Empire Mfg -1.0; Nov Retail Sales -0.2% m/m, ex-Autos +0.2% n/n, ex-Autos & Gas unchanged; Initial Jobless Claims 232k, Continuing Claims 1.67m; Dec Phil Fed Business Outlook -10.0; Nov Industrial Production unchanged m/m, Mfg Production -0.2%, Capacity Utilization 79.8%
ESHs are +11.75 on expiration-related buying at 20:15 ET. USHs are -2/32.
DeSantis’ power move on COVID vaccines targets drugmakers, possibly Trump legacy Grand jury can compel revelations that could affect legal immunity of drugmakers, 2024 presidential race. As he has done many times before, Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is flexing his state muscle to address an issue where many see federal failure, empaneling a state grand jury to investigate whether drugmakers and federal agencies hid potential risks or problems posed by the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines…It also opens a political avenue to attack Donald Trump’s administration for its Warp Speed program to approve the vaccines on an accelerated timetable… The “pharmaceutical industry has a notorious history of misleading the public for financial gain,” and the grand jury will probe “the development, promotion, and distribution of vaccines purported to prevent COVID-19 infection, symptoms, and transmission,” the filing declared… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/desantis-power-move-covid-vaccines-targets-drugmakers-possibly-trump
Poll: DeSantis Crushes Trump – according to Trump’s own pollster – Ann Coulter WSJ Poll – DeSantis 52%, Trump 38% – Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the poll for the WSJ is Trump’s own pollster. DeSantis isn’t even expected to decide on a presidential run after Florida’s legislative session ends in May. Ann is winning all her steak bets. https://anncoulter.substack.com/p/poll-desantis-crushes-trump-according
Fox’s @ChadPergram: (GOP Rep, Coming Head of Oversight Com) Comer: Discovering the origin of COVID-19 is vital to providing accountability and protecting Americans in the future. Mounting evidence points to the virus originating from a leak at the Wuhan lab. EcoHealth Alliance, a U.S. National Institutes of Health grantee, passed taxpayer funds to the Wuhan lab to conduct gain of function research on bat coronaviruses – research that may have started the pandemic. Dr. Fauci was warned early on that the virus appeared man made and pointed to a lab leak and instead of blowing the whistle may have attempted to cover it up. We will continue this oversight to hold U.S. government officials accountable for any wrongdoing and ensure Americans’ tax dollars aren’t being used on risky research at unsecure labs.
@CitizenFreePres: MD Paul Marik: “In my hospital… they wanted me to use Remdesivir — it increases your risk of kidney failure 20 fold & increases your risk of dying by about 4%… The federal gov’t will give hospitals a 20% bonus if you prescribe this toxic medication.” https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1600883642561331200
Newsom says California about to ‘break’ amid flood of illegal migrants when Title 42 expireshttps://t.co/V4MoEe073D
@ColumbiaBugle: Tucker Carlson: “@elonmusk now has control of the most significant trove of secret information ever to reside in private hands. So far, we have not seen much of it, and you have to wonder why we haven’t. Let’s hope that we do.” #ReleaseItAllhttps://t.co/hIgAaYK0aa Tucker Carlson Segment on The Number Employees at Twitter Who Worked for Foreign and Domestic Intelligence Agencies: “Could it be that Twitter was actually, maybe primarily a propaganda tool, an intelligence gathering apparatus for a variety of intel agencies?” https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1602850140930207744
@elonmusk Dec 11: My pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci @hodgetwins Dec 11: Replying to @elonmusk: Let me guess, You found messages between Twitter execs and our govt. (Fauci and team) pushing for censorship of anyone that didn’t go along with their narrative on Covid? @elonmusk Replying to @hodgetwins: (Trophy emoji – ‘you win’)
Left wing group releases ‘Don’t Run, Joe’ ad opposing Biden reelection bidhttps://t.co/Du3HWYYtFy The ad features voters arguing that Biden’s low popularity would give Republicans too strong of a chance
Biden grilled for claiming restaurants kick people out ‘for being gay’ People in America aren’t getting thrown out of restaurants for being gay. But in just the last couple years, they HAVE been thrown out for being Christian. And they have been thrown out for being unvaccinated,” Jesse Kelly, a conservative commentator, tweeted… https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-grilled-claiming-restaurants-kick-people-gay
@JeremyTate41: Harvard Law professor, Elizabeth Bartholet, is calling for a ban on homeschooling. Bartholet writes “from early on our law recognized that the state has a role to play in child rearing, and that parents have responsibilities and not just rights.” Are you waking up yet? https://www.nheri.org/contra-bartholet-rights-of-children-vs-rights-of-the-state/
Elon Musk recommended this story: The Fifth Estate (Big Tech; Media is 4th Estate) Throughout the 20th Century thousands of media outlets gradually consolidated, and by the dawn of our internet era only a few giants remained. These giants largely shared a single perspective, and in rough agreement with the ruling class the Fourth Estate naturally came to serve, rather than critique, power. This relationship metastasized into something very close to authoritarianism during the Covid-19 pandemic, when a single state narrative was written by the press, and ruthlessly enforced by a fifth and final fount of power in the newly-dominant technology industry… Twitter leadership lied to the public, relentlessly, for years, and everything the most paranoid among us ever said about the platform was true. “Trust and safety” is a euphemism for political censorship, with “expert” teams comprised almost exclusively of the most radical, joyless grievance studies majors you ever met in college. Their goal is to reshape American politics by dominating the bounds of what the public is permitted to consider American politics… On December 6th, Bari Weiss and her colleagues reported out proof of Twitter’s secret blacklists, in which both specific topics and, more problematically, people were de-amplified by the “trust and safety” team. The blacklisting was done for a nebulous host of reasons that generally amounted to something like ‘this feels dangerous.’ Danger was, of course, defined by partisan operatives, and exclusively targeted right-coded positions…Trump was not banned for violating policy. Trump was banned because Twitter employees, who donated literally 99% of their political contributions to the Democratic Party, demanded it be done regardless of their own rules… While we don’t know for sure this is also happening at Google, Meta, or TikTok (which is for some reason still allowed to operate in this country), I think it’s a safe bet we’re looking at an industry-wide affliction… From encrypted chats and blockchain to artificially intelligent search, every tech giant that amassed power over the last two decades will be facing existential threats in the years to come — not only from the government, but from the industry… https://www.piratewires.com/p/the-fifth-estate?s=02
(Trophy emoji – ‘you win’)
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