DEC 19/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $2.10 TO $1788.55//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 13 CENTS TO $23.00//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $10.55 TO $985.70//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $51.75 TO $1677.05//HUGE NUMBER OF COVID/UPDATES: CHINA COVID UPDATE//IVERMECTIN UPDATE/VACCINE INJURY//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS UPDATES//UPDATES ON RUSSIAN VS UKRAINE WAR//UPDATES ON FTX AND SAM BACKMAN//EGON VON GREYERZ A MUST READ//PEPE ESCOBAR ON XI’S VISIT TO SAUDI ARABIA/PEPE ESCOBAR ON THE UKRAINE-RUSSIAN WAR//MIGRANT PROBLEMS IN THREE MAJOR USA CITIES: NEW YORK, EL PASO AND DENVER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 81 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 22 661 C JP MORGAN 59
TOTAL: 81 81 MONTH TO DATE: 20,173
COMEX//NOTICES FILED re JPMorgan 59/81
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC. CONTRACT: 81 NOTICES FOR 8100 OZ or .2519 TONNES
total notices so far: 20,173 contracts for 2,017,300 oz (62.747 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 44 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 220,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 3609 for 18,045,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////HUGE CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.41 TONNES TONNES OUT OF THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV THESE PAST 3 WEEKS! A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 509.20 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 298 CONTRACTS TO 124,031 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL $0.02 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.02 BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD AN HUGE SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1232 CONTRACTS. AS WELL WE HAD EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER OF 0 CONTRACTS. WE HAD VERY LITTLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS OF THEIR SHORTFALL. .WE PROBABLY HAD SMALL SHORT ADDITIONS WITH THE SMALL PRICE RISE OF THE SILVER. // OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT CONTRACTS>>> SOME INCREASE OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDING TO THEIR POSITIONS CAUSING ADDITIONAL MISERY TO OUR SHORTERS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 23 .24. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S QUEUE. JUMP of 20,000 OZ // V) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL —45
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 8353 contracts: OR 41.765 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (556 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 41.765 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 41.765 MILLION OZ INITIAL( VERY SMALL)
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 298 WITH OUR $0.02 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 889 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 23.24 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY:S 20,000 QUEUE. JUMP //NEW STANDING 23.390 MILLION OZ + EFR = 33.890 MILLION OZ. .. WE HAVE AN HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1232 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 6.160 MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS.
WE HAD 44 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 220,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1499 CONTRACTS TO 424,625 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed 184 CONTRACTS.
.
THE HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC. AT 58.86 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY:S HUGE EFP JUMP TO LONDON of 30 contracts or 3,000 oz//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 63.576 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN PRICE OF $12.45WITH RESPECT TO FRISDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 761 OI CONTRACTS (2.367 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3011 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 424,809
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 761 CONTRACTS WITH 1499 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 738 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 577 CONTRACTS OR 1.795 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (738 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1499) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 761 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS // CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY PAPER SHORT. WE HAD FEW SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // GOOD NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC. AT 58.86 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON of 3,000 oz// //NEW STANDING 63.576 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :
33,135 CONTRACTS OR 3,313,500 OZ OR 103.06 TONNES 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2209 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:103.06 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 103.06/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 103.06 tonnes Initial//VERY SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 298 CONTRACTS OI TO 124,031 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 889 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 889 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 889 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 298 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 889 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN AN HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1187 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.935 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.02….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 60.74 PTS OR 1.92% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 97.86 OR 0.53% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 289.43 OR 1.05% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.21% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.9738//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9726// /Oil UP TO 75.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.63 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY SMALL SIZED 1499 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 424,625 DESPITE OUR THE GAIN IN PRICE $12.45
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 738 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 FEB: 738 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:738 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 761 CONTRACTS IN THAT 738 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 1,499 CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $12.45. WE ARE WITNESSING FEW SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS TO THEIR SHORTFALL. BANKERS CONTINUE AS NET BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WE ALSO HAD STRONG NEWBIE SPECS ADDITIONS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING DEC (63.626)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)
Dec. 63.626 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $12.45) //// ( BUT WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 7577 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES >. WE HAD A FEW NUMBER OF NEW SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AND SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS.. // WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 2.367 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC. (54.57 TONNES), following our EFP jump of 3,000 oz//new standing lowers to 63.576 tonnes…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.45
WE HAD – 184 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 761 CONTRACTS OR 76100 OZ OR 2.367 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 82,968// awful//
final gold volumes/yesterday 133,685/ poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR DECEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //DEC 19
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
20,173 notices 2,017,300 62.797 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
customer withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Brinks: 8198.01 oz
ii) Out of Manfra: 6172.892 oz (192 kilobars)
Total withdrawals: 14,371.002 oz
total in tonnes: .446 tonnes
Adjustments: 2 dealer to customer account
a) Delaware; 1598.380 oz
b) Manfra 35,398.250 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER.
For the front month of DECEMBER we have an oi of 348 contracts having LOST 387 contracts
We had 351 contracts served on Friday, so we LOST 30 contracts or an additional 3000 oz will NOT stand for gold at the COMEX. These guys were EFP’d to London as the boys could not find any gold to serve upon.
JANUARY GAINED 38 contracts to stand at 1260
February LOST 2371 contacts to 360,138
We had 81 notice(s) filed today for 81,000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 81 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 59 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC. /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,173 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (DEC. 343 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 81 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,0440,000 OZ OR 63.576 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of DEC.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month:
No of notices filed so far (20,173 x 100 oz+ (343 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (81} x 100 oz} which equals 2,044,000 oz standing OR 63.576 TONNES in this active delivery month of DEC..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 63.576 TONNES (A POOR STANDING//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3609 x 5,000 oz = 18,045,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(1113) and the number of notices served upon today 44 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC./2022 contract month: 3609 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (1113 – number of notices served upon today (44) x 500 oz of silver standing for the DEC. contract month equates 23.390 million oz.. Also we have another criminal element to our silver oz standing, the use of Exchange for Risk/ Today an addition of 0 EFR contract transfers which are “Exchange for risk” settlements. I do not want to bore you but needless to say they are not physical transfers so are criminal in nature. There have been 2100 Exchange for Risk contracts settled these past 8 days for 10.500 million oz. Thus total delivery: 33.890 million oz.
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 8/WITH GOLD UP $34.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//: INVENTORY RESTS AT 905.49 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.95: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.96. TONNES
NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.
NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.
NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES
OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//
OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES
OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES
OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 910.41 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//
DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//
NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.751 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.929 MILLION OZ//
NOV 7/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//
NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//
NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ
OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//
OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.
OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/
OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//
OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///
OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//
OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//
OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 509.20 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
We have outlined this to you over the course of the year
Schiff
COMEX: Silver Registered Ratio Falls To 11.1% – Lowest In 22 Years
The drainage of silver from Comex vaults since the start of the year has been nothing short of spectacular…
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Registered = Warrant assigned and can be used for Comex delivery, Eligible = No warrant attached – owner has not made it available for delivery.
Current Trends
Gold
Gold is seeing its first increase in Registered inventory since April. That said, over December, there has been a mild net decrease in metal in Comex vaults of 100k ounces.
Figure: 1 Recent Monthly Stock Change
According to Comex reports, there are over 11M ounces of Gold in the Registered category. If so much metal is readily available for delivery, why are market participants moving metal from Eligible to Registered?
The short answer: there are not 11M ounces standing ready for delivery. Most of it is listed there for optics which was put in place shortly after the stress in the Comex system that occurred back in March 2020 (see Figure 8).
Figure: 2 Recent Monthly Stock Change
Since the start of the December contract, the amount Pledged has been steadily increasing again. Pledged is a subset of Registered but is actually not available for delivery because it has been pledged as collateral. This essentially inflates Registered by the amount shown below. Another tool to make the Registered category look bigger than it is.
Figure: 3 Gold Pledged Holdings
Silver
The supply of silver has been shrinking even more rapidly than gold. The drainage since the start of the year has been nothing short of spectacular. 48.5M ounces have left Registered since Jan 1. That represents more than 50% of the balance of 82M ounces last Dec 31.
After all this stress on the system, the Comex was only able to add a net 300k ounces of metal so far this month.
Figure: 4 Recent Monthly Stock Change
Much of the inflow came at the beginning of the month and has already been leaving since. It’s very likely that by the end of December, the net change in inventory is actually negative.
Figure: 5 Recent Monthly Stock Change
There is another major indication that shows inventory might be much smaller than is reported. As of yesterday, only 77.6% of contracts standing for delivery have actually had their metal delivered. Shorts are on the hook for deciding when to deliver the metal, so why are they dragging their feet? Through the 16th, this is the least amount of metal delivered as a percent of Open Interest on First Notice back to at least Jan 2020.
Figure: 6 Delivery Volume After First Notice
Another odd data point is the number of net new contracts after first position. There have been some months, like last July, where net new contracts are negative throughout the month. However, while this month is still positive, it went up and then reversed back down. This means that there are cash settlements happening way late in the contract.
Again, why? This does not usually happen!
Figure: 7 Cumulative Net New Contracts
Let’s look back at the vaults. The table below summarizes the movement activity over several periods to better demonstrate the magnitude of the current move.
Gold
Over the last month, gold has seen a net inventory decrease of 2.6%
This is being driven by 1.2M ounces leaving Eligible vs only 608k ounces being added to Registered
Since last year, the total amount removed exceeds 10M ounces of gold
Silver
Silver continues to see Registered supplies fall, with 1.6M ounces being removed over the last 30 days
Eligible took a beating in the latest week, dropping almost 2M ounces
Palladium/Platinum
Palladium and platinum are much smaller markets but that may be where the market breaks first.
Palladium saw a light increase as the delivery month got started
Platinum inventory is down 12.1% over the last month as it prepares for the January delivery month
It will not take many contracts standing for delivery to fully deplete Platinum from the vaults
Figure: 8 Stock Change Summary
The next table shows the activity by bank/Holder. It details the numbers above to see the movement specific to vaults.
Gold
The last month has seen net inventories fall across all vaults aside from a negligible increase in Manfra
Brinks saw supplies fall by 7%
Silver
Silver has seen some big moves over the last month:
Manfra increased supplies by 4M ounces or 40%
Delaware also saw supplies increase 2M ounces or 5%
JP Morgan was on the other side, losing 3.8M ounces
INT Delaware saw 264k ounces disappear which was 21%
Figure: 9 Stock Change Detail
Historical Perspective
Zooming out and looking at the inventory for gold and silver shows just how massive the current move has been. The black line shows Registered as a percent of the total. As gold December delivery has started, you can see that Registered quickly moved from 45% to 50% of the total inventory.
As noted above, vault totals are still falling. This move into Registered is coming at the expense of Eligible. If there is still such a massive supply of Registered, why are banks scrambling to add metal back from Eligible?
Figure: 10 Historical Eligible and Registered
Despite silver seeing a net increase in inventory over the month, Registered continues to fall. The silver Registered Ratio reached as low as 11.1% of total inventory on December 7th. This is the lowest the ratio has been since at least January 2000!! The old low was 14.7% back in December 2016. The full history really demonstrates the magnitude of the current move.
Figure: 11 Historical Eligible and Registered
The chart below focuses just on Registered to show the steepness of the current fall. In Feb 2021, Registered surged to as high as 152M ounces. That number now sits around 33M, which is a net fall of 119M ounces (78%).
Figure: 12 Historical Registered
Comex is not the only vault seeing big moves out of silver. Below shows the LBMA holdings of silver. It should be noted that much of the holdings shown below are allocated to ETFs. Regardless, total inventories have fallen every single month since last November. Holdings fell below 1B ounces in June and now sit at 840M ounces as of November.
Figure: 13 LBMA Holdings of Silver
Available supply for potential demand
These falls in inventory have had a major impact on the coverage of Comex against the paper contracts held. There are now 3.6 paper contracts for each ounce of Registered gold within the Comex vaults. This is down from the recent high of 4.5 seen in November.
Figure: 14 Open Interest/Stock Ratio
Coverage in silver is far worse than in gold with nearly 18.3 paper contracts for each ounce of Registered silver. This is down slightly from the recent high when coverage was as thin as 20.4 paper contracts for each physical ounce in mid-November. This means a bit more than 5% of silver open interest would need to stand for delivery to wipe out Comex vaults entirely of Registered.
Figure: 15 Open Interest/Stock Ratio
Wrapping Up
The physical demand for gold and silver has continued unabated for months. This is the first month where the net flows have slowed, which is ironic given the historically strong delivery month of December.
Taking a pure data hat off and putting on a speculator hat… here is what I think:
Inventories are much thinner than the data shows. We have perhaps reached the bottom of metal available for delivery at current prices. This is why silver is seeing so many contracts remain unfulfilled AND why we have also seen a dip in net new contracts this late in the delivery window. There is simply no metal available so it is not being delivered.
Gold is a few months behind silver and is also a deeper market, but the same trends are starting to emerge.
This theory could be put to the test as soon as the end of December. Platinum is facing its major delivery month with very limited supplies available. If someone wanted to stress the Comex system, they could easily stand for delivery in amounts exceeding what’s available.
If I had to bet though, I don’t think the Comex will break on Platinum. What I will be watching is what tricks are used to satisfy demand. It can manifest itself in the data in multiple ways (e.g., cash settlements, a larger dive into close, etc.). Whatever happens, it will likely be a preview of what we can expect in silver and then gold in 2023 and 2024. Stay tuned!
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
end
LAWRIE WILLIAMS:
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
I brought this to your attention on Friday as this is a must view of Maguire interviewing London Paul
(GATA)
November spike in BIS gold swaps was an emergency intervention, Maguire says
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-12-16 20:38Section: Daily Dispatches
8:30p ET Friday, December 16, 2022
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Speaking on Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program this week, London bullion trader Andrew Maguire says the Bank for International Settlements’ nearly 100-tonne increase in its gold swap position in November —
— likely was part of an emergency intervention to contain the monetary metal’s sharply rising price.
Nevertheless, Maguire adds, the structure of the gold market is substantially bullish entering the new year.
Maguire’s comments are 42 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
end
There is now a record central bank gold rush triggered by fears of western sanctions
(Rees/London Telegraph//GATA)
Record central bank gold rush has been triggered by fears of Western sanctions
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-12-18 15:54Section: Daily Dispatches
By Tom Rees The Telegraph, London Sunday, December 18, 2022
A record central bank gold rush has been triggered by fears of Western sanctions after Russia was made a pariah state in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, according to the World Gold Council.
Officials in many countries outside the West are rethinking their foreign currency reserves after the sanctions meant Russia’s central bank lost the use of its war chest, hampering its ability to protect the ruble and its banking system
Central banks snapped up more gold in the first nine months of 2022 than all the annual totals since 1967, according to the WGC. Almost 400 tonnes of gold were bought by central banks in the third quarter, quadruple the amount acquired in the same period a year earlier.
John Reade, chief market strategist at the WGC, said: “At the margin, it served to increase the tendency of emerging market central banks to diversify away from the reserve currencies they have in their portfolio, and add to gold.
“It certainly made them think about what international reserves mean, what they should hold, how they should hold them.” …
Australia’s sovereign wealth fund buys gold, commodities as shadow of 1970s looms
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-12-19 06:58Section: Daily Dispatches
By Lewis Jackson Reuters via WTVB-1590AM Sunday, December 18, 2022
SYDNEY — Australia’s A$200 billion ($134.28 billion) sovereign wealth fund is increasing exposure to gold, commodities, private equity, and infrastructure as it warns the future will echo the low-growth, high-inflation era of the 1970s.
The Future Fund outlined the changes, which also included widening its currency basket, in a note on Friday that questioned the value of traditional 60-40 portfolios and called for an investing shift to confront a world dealing with war, inflation and climate change.
“In this kind of environment there is a real risk of simultaneous slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices that has some parallels with the stagflationary period that struck developed markets in the 1970s,” the note said.
Investors large and small are scrambling to adjust portfolios and philosophies undermined by the simultaneous cratering of equity and bond markets.
Propaganda, lies and censorship are all part of desperate governments actions as the economy disintegrates.
We are today seeing both news and history being rewritten to suit the woke trends that permeate society at every level, be it covid, the number of genders, the Ukraine war or government finances.
I have in many articles covered the explosion of money printing and debt which is an obvious sign that the global financial system is approaching collapse and default . The consequences will be far reaching to every corner of the globe and all parts of society.
Later on in this article, I will look at the consequences in relation to markets and what ordinary people (investors?) can do to prepare themselves.
ORWELL PREDICTED THE FALSIFICATION OF HISTORY 73 YEARS AGO
“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”― George Orwell, 1984
Let’s just look at government finances. As we are entering the end of an era with deficits and debts running out of control, the truth becomes an inconvenience to governments and must therefore be suppressed or rewritten.
If we just look at the US Doublespeak in regards to the 2021-2 budget deficit, we find that the US Treasury reported on Oct 21 this year:
WASHINGTON, Oct 21 (Reuters) – The U.S. government on Friday reported that its fiscal 2022 budget deficit plunged by half from a year earlier to $1.375 trillion, due to fading COVID-19 relief spending and record revenues fuelled by a hot economy, but student loan forgiveness costs limited the reduction. The U.S. Treasury said the $1.400 trillion reduction in the deficit was still the largest-ever single-year improvement in the U.S. fiscal position as receipts hit a record $4.896 trillion, up $850 billion, or 21% from fiscal 2021.
FANTASTIC!!
What an achievement by the Treasury Secretary Ms Yellen and her team to halve the deficit to only $1.4 trillion!
But let’s look a bit more closely what really happened.
If the deficit was “only” $1.4 trillion we must assume that the Federal Debt also increased by the same amount?
But ALAS, the debt increased by $2.5 trillion to $31T in the same period and not by the assumed $1.4T.
Hmmmm.
So again we can look at the 1984 Orwell quote above “Every record has been destroyed or falsified….”
The deficit wasn’t halved at all. Instead hal
f of it was stated below the line as a budget adjustment. So they can lie about the Budget Deficit but so far they are not lying about the level of the Debt. But that will certainly happen one day too. Remember that the Clinton so called surpluses in the late 1990s were produced with the same type of creative accounting. There were no real surpluses. They were just shuffled below the line since debt continued to grow.
Good old Mark Twain gave us the useful quote about lies and statistics:
So there we have it, 2022 seems more and more like 1984!
AWARDS FOR FAILURE
In this upside down world, warmongers and money printers get prestigious awards.
Zelensky is Time Magazine’s Person of the Year. And Bernanke wins the Nobel Prize in Economics.
In the Ukraine war 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died according to the US Chief of Staff Gen. Milley.
Instead of handing out a reward for a war resulting in 200,000 dead soldiers and another 40,000 dead civilians, it would be much more appropriate if the world focused on making peace rather than sending more weapons and more money to perpetuate the war.
“All the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting.” – George Orwell
Ben Bernanke was Chairman of the Fed from 2006 to 2014. During his period the US Debt doubled from $8.2 trillion to $17.5T, a feat that no head of the Fed had achieved before.
And for that accomplishment the Nobel Prize is awarded.
The fact that the Swedish Riksbank (Central bank) selects the winner makes it easier to understand since they are all Keynesians
2023 AND BEYOND
The clouds look extremely dark for 2023 and beyond.
As I have pointed out above, there is no attempt to reach a peace settlement in Ukraine. Weapons and money are pouring in to keep the war going. And the sanctions forced upon Europe by the US are having a devastating effect for the citizens of most European countries. Energy costs are up 2-3X or more for many consumers and food inflation in Germany for example jumped 21% year on year in November.
In the UK, many ordinary people cannot afford to keep their heating on or to eat properly. And this is before the cold winter sets in.
The situation in Ukraine seems to deteriorate and with Russia and the US involved, as well as China in the periphery, it could easily escalate.
A global sovereign default should be seen as an indisputable fact and it is only a question of how long it takes.
These events are normally a process. As Hemingway said, you go bankrupt “Gradually and then suddenly”.
The beginning can be a slow process and then at some point the shock comes so fast that no one will have time to react.
So no-one must believe that there will be time to get out once the early “gradual” phase starts.
Just to be clear, the gradual phase is here already although the world is in denial. The buy the dip mentality is still prevailing as evidenced by the partial recovery in stock markets.
Few realise that this is it and the next devastating fall in stocks is going to fool practically all investors. The majority will not get out but hope for a correction so they can exit at a higher level. And once the correction comes, they will be bullish again.
Once everyone is back into the market it will fall again. Most of the investors will be fooled most of the time until their portfolio is virtually worthless.
The Western world hasn’t experienced a real bear market since 1929-32. That time it took 25 years for the Dow to recover to the 1929 high.
The generosity of Central banks has made stock investments a one way game since the early 1980s. But now the game is up and few will realise it until they have lost everything.
So the “suddenly” will be like an earthquake seemingly coming out of nowhere. It can come in 2023 or it might take a few years.
Gold has risen strongly in this century although most investors don’t actually realise how strong it has been.
Since the beginning of the 2000s gold has outperformed every major asset class including stock markets. But the move has been in two halves with the first 11 years being spectacular for gold which moved up 7X in dollar terms. Since then a strong dollar has made gold’s performance less spectacular.
But if we look at an annual chart of gold in US dollars it still looks very impressive.
In the 2000s, Gold in Euros has performed as a perfect wealth preservation asset with only one major correction.
This chart is more typical of Gold’s performance in most currencies since it is not affected by a temporarily strong dollar.
Sanctions, energy prices, inflation, industrial production and many more problems in Euroland, make gold a sine qua non (necessity) in order to avoid total wealth destruction.
Both fundamentally and technically gold now looks ready for another major move. The first target is $3,000 on the way to much higher levels. But as I often point out, gold must be measured in ounces or kilos and not in what will be worthless fiat money whether paper or digital.
In February 2019, I forecast that the Maginot line at $1,350 would soon break on the upside. (See chart below) and would be followed by a strong rally. The rally started a few weeks later and gold went up $700 to over $2,000.
We now have another smaller consolidation or a mini Maginot line which is likely to break in the next few weeks. A decisive break of $1900-1950 should do it and lead to a major move.
Confirming this turn is an Aden Sisters 7 year cycle low around December 2022:
Hubert Moolman has pointed out a 23 year cycle that also bottoms this autumn and normally leads to major moves.
Technical forecasts are of course about probabilities and not certainties. But the track record of these forecasters improves the odds substantially.
THE WISDOM OF THE EAST
The East, including Russia, Turkey, India, Thailand, Vietnam and China have all made major purchases of gold in this century whilst the demand from the West has been static.
Total withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange is a reflection of total gold demand in China. As the chart below shows, the Chinese have bought 23,000 tonnes of gold since 2008. That is around 50% of the gold production during the same period.
Although there are many factors, primarily fundamental but also technical, that point to gold soon making a major move, what is much more important are the massive risks that the world is now facing.
We are on the edge of a precipice potentially leading to catastrophes of a magnitude never experienced before.
No one knows of course how this will play out except for future historians.
As I have stated in many articles the risks are at all levels, geopolitical, economic, financial, social, human etc.
For most of us it will be impossible to protect ourselves against most of the risks.
What is highly likely is that the wealth destruction will be massive and for that physical gold and silver is the best insurance like it has been throughout history.
I am obviously not pretending that precious metals is the total panacea for what is coming. But what is quite certain is that for material survival it is critical to hold.
As I often state, a close circle of family and friends is more important than anything else.
Throughout the better part of 2022 there has been one question that has consistently, and predictably, popped up in conversations with my friends, clients and readers. Those who know me and are familiar with my ideas are well aware of my position on precious metals and the multiple roles they serve, so I can’t blame them for them for being curious whether I still “stick to my guns” in this era of irrationality in the markets and the economy.
Especially for those not versed in monetary history, which is regrettably the vast majority of the population, it is natural to wonder: “If gold is such a great hedge against inflation, why hasn’t it skyrocketed now that inflation is finally here?”
Well, there are a couple of reasons for that, some more obvious than others. The interest rate hikes that the Fed spearheaded and repeatedly escalated are the most straightforward explanation. At least that’s the answer most mainstream economists and analysts will give you. And it makes sense: If gold pays you no interest for holding it, then why not switch to something that does? This is the mindset of most investors and that weakens demand, which in turn drags the price down. That’s how the theory goes anyway.
If, however, we’re willing to examine the question a little more closely, we might begin by scrutinizing its premises. The question takes for granted that gold has underperformed this year. But has it really? If you’re saving, getting your paycheck and paying your bills in a currency other than the dollar, you’re likely to have a very different view on this issue. In euros, gold is up around 6.6 percent. In yen, it’s up 17.9 percent In Egyptian pounds is up over 45 percent. What this clearly shows us, is that perspective matters.
And for those that can see the bigger picture, that perspective is even clearer: Thinking about the gold price in terms of any fiat currency, not just the USD, is not really helpful. It’s not gold’s value that fluctuates, what fluctuates is the perceived and totally imaginary value of all these useless pieces of paper. After all, as all long-term, responsible precious metals investors know very well, there’s only one important trend and it’s an obvious one, as the chart below shows.
As I mentioned many times, I do not believe that short-term price considerations should play a pivotal role in the decision-making process of investors who hold gold for the right reasons and who understand why they do. What is important, however, is to look beyond the mainstream headlines and to be able to separate the signal from the noise. In our case, for example, one can find a million analyses and forecasts on gold’s outlook, all highlighting superficial dynamics and featuring simplistic arguments. Monetary policy projections are chief among them, and the narrative goes “Since we expect central bankers to do so and so, gold is projected to react in this way.”
Well, instead of trying to divine the intentions of central bankers, to guess what they’ll do and how it might affect the gold market, wouldn’t it make more sense to look at what those central bankers have actually done, rather than what they say? Cause what they did in 2022 speaks volumes: Globally, central banks accumulated gold reserves at a pace unseen since 1967, back when the dollar was still backed by the precious metal.
Consider this for a moment and then recall all their official statements and projections about the economy and how a recession is avoidable, about inflation and how it’s definitely, absolutely under control and about their faith in their own currencies. Feel free to draw your own conclusions about what’s coming.
Looking forward to the next year, it is clear that there are many reasons to be concerned. The conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of abating and all the preexisting problems it seriously aggravated can also be expected to linger, if not get worse. Inflation is set to continue to plague the real economy, no matter how hard government statisticians try to cook the numbers: Even if CPI goes down, real households will continue to feel the pain. There’s an abundance of supportive forces working in favor of gold and the dynamics are so striking that even the big banks couldn’t help but notice. In early December, Saxo Bank put out an “outrageous” price forecast of $3,000/ounce, in its most “extreme” scenario of a worldwide “war economy.”
While price gains will certainly be more than welcome for physical gold investors, the metal’s real value is likely to become apparent too in the months and years to come. As States get increasingly desperate and fail to find a way out of the fiscal, monetary and sociopolitical hole they dug for themselves, they are bound to get more aggressive, as they’ve always been known to do. Threats to financial sovereignty, government power grabs, increased monitoring and control over private assets and savings, are all likely to become more dire. And under these conditions, physical gold really shines, especially when it’s securely and compliantly held outside one’s own jurisdiction, as well as, outside the traditional banking system.
5. Commodity commentaries//IRON ORE
END
6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
Bankman Fried to be extradited to the USA possibly by today
(zerohedge)
Bankman-Fried Expected To Be Extradited As Soon As Today
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 10:47 AM
It appears crypto-criminal Sam Bankman-Fried would rather take his chances in the relative ‘luxury’ of an American jail than face another night in Bahamian’s corrections department, as he is expected to accept extradition as soon as this morning.
After being arrested and denied bail by a Bahamas court, the 30-year-old has been held at Fox Hill Prison in Nassau.
The facility has been criticized in international reports for overcrowding and lacking sanitation.
Reports indicate that he shares a cell with five other individuals.
The NY Times reports one former Fox Hill inmate Sean Hall, who was freed from jail last year, said:
“It’s no living situation for no type of living being.”
According to Hall, the width of his cell was less than the span of his stretched arms, and they slept on bare metal bunk beds infested with insects.
Another source acquainted with the situation told the Wall Street Journal that Sam Bankman-Fried’s team had provided meals that matched his dietary requirements, but they were uncertain as of Friday if he had received them.
According to people familiar with the matter, Sam Bankman-Fried is due in a Bahamian court on Monday where he is expected to agree to be extradited to the US to face charges of fraud.
Extradition will pave the way for a protracted legal showdown in the U.S. On Tuesday, the Southern District of New York of the Justice Department unsealed a 13-page criminal indictment.
Bitcoinist reports, that, according to defense attorney Zachary Margulis-Ohnuma, Bankman-Fried would likely be detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn upon arriving in the U.S., although some defendants are being kept at jails just outside of New York City owing to congestion at the facility.
end
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//
MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.9738
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9726
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 60.74 PTS OR 1.92%
HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 97.86 OR 0.59%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 289.68 PTS OR 1.05%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.22 Euro RISES TO 106.09 UP 30 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.50/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.206%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.374%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.298…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.318//
3j Gold at $1792.55//silver at: 23.17 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 3 AND 39/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.03//
3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.50 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9329–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9890 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.533% UP 5 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.606% UP 7 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,65…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.482 % UP 14 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Rise On China Growth Hopes
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 08:06 AM
After US stocks were set to start week with modest gains as optimism around an economic recovery in China offset fears that the Fed is pushing the US economy off a recessionary cliff. S&P and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.4% as of 7:45 a.m. ET led by energy and tech shares, after China’s leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, and further support for the property market.
In premarket trading, Tesla gained after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk polled users on Twitter over whether he should step down as head of the social-media company, with the result so far leaning toward yes. At the same time, Ardelyx slumped after the biotech said that the FDA may need “up to a few more weeks” to finalize its response to the company’s appeal over the complete response letter for its new drug application for its kidney disease therapy XPHOZAH (tenapanor). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Tesla shares gain 5.1% in US premarket trading after CEO Elon Musk polled users on Twitter over whether he should step down as head of the social-media company, with the result so far leaning toward yes.
Moderna gains 4% as Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying it can rebound in 2023 on a return of pipeline opportunities.
Ardelyx shares drop 13% after the biotech said that the FDA may need “up to a few more weeks” to finalize its response to the company’s appeal over the complete response letter for its new drug application for its kidney disease therapy XPHOZAH.
Aerojet shares rise 3% after L3Harris Technologies (LHX US) agreed to buy the rocket engine maker in a deal valued at about $4.7 billion. The purchase makes strategic sense, although analysts at Truist said the offer price looks expensive.
Watch Netflix stock as its price target was raised at Morgan Stanley on the back of currency “swings,” though broker flagged risk that expectations and valuation have run “too far too fast.”
Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock is downgraded to hold at Jefferies, which says that the company continues to offer a good pipeline, but risk/reward and valuation seem “balanced” following strong gains this year.
KeyBanc adds to recent upgrades for PerkinElmer moving to overweight from sector weight based on transformational sale of analytical instruments business.
A fourth-quarter rally in the S&P 500 fizzled out as investors grew worried the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer despite signs of cooling in inflation. Unexpectedly hawkish comments from the European Central Bank added to the pessimism last week, keeping the benchmark index on course for its biggest annual slump since 2008.
Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said although stock-index futures were climbing today, sentiment is still expected to be subdued into the year-end. “Concerns that the US will be dragged into recession as the Fed tries to tame the wild horse of inflation are still front and center,” she said.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson warned US corporate earnings next year are facing their biggest drop since the global financial crisis as the economy weakens. That could spark a new stock-market low that’s “much worse than what most investors are expecting,” he wrote in a note.
Yet while underlying stock indexes remain on track to end the month lower, some investors are starting to look past fears of an economic recession triggered by higher interest rates, and betting that inflation has peaked allowing the Federal Reserve and other central banks some leeway in tightening policy.
“Markets have begun to price in that inflation will decline, in part due to the action by central banks,” Jacob Vijverberg, multi-asset investment manager at Aegon Asset Management, told clients, pointing to recent below-forecast US inflation figures. This would help riskier assets such as higher yielding fixed income and equities to outperform, he added.
European stocks also gained after a downbeat close to the past week, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.5% led by energy shares which outperformed on Monday as oil advanced following a pledge from China to revive consumption and a plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling US strategic crude reserves. The Stoxx 600 Energy sub-index rose 2.2% as of 8:30 a.m. in London, outpacing all other groups in the regional equity benchmark, which gained 0.5%. Here are the biggest Eureopean movers:
BP shares rise as much as 3.3%, Shell 3.2% and TotalEnergies 3.4%. European energy shares outperform on Monday as oil advances following a pledge from China to revive consumption and a plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling US strategic crude reserves.
Suedzucker shares rise as much as 6.4%, adding to last week’s strong gains following the German sugar producer’s guidance increase, with Warburg today upgrading the stock to buy from hold.
Innate Pharma surged as much as 19% at the open after the French biotech company announced it had expanded its collaboration with Sanofi for natural killer cell therapeutics in oncology.
Freenet shares rise as much as 4.8% after Deutsche Bank raises the stock to buy from hold, saying the telecom and media firm could be a defensive addition to portfolios in 2023.
TietoEVRY shares gain as much as 3.5% after Nordea raised its recommendation to buy from hold, saying the break-up case for the firm is “becoming partly de-risked” following the announced disposals of Banking, Connect and Transform businesses.
Nexi shares advance as much as 5% to lead gains on the FTSE MIB index after the government dropped a proposed measure on a minimum threshold to accept digital payments.
Fugro shares dropped as much as 30%, the most since 1995, after report on involvement with 2019 dam breach in Brazil that killed 270 people.
Tokmanni shares fall as much as 6.8%, extending losses into a fourth session, after Nordea cut its recommendation for the shares to hold from buy, noting the company’s “unwillingness to increase prices” hurts its investment case “at least temporarily.”
Asia stocks headed lower for a third day as traders assessed rising infection numbers in China and risks of a regional economic slowdown. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased initial gains to fall as much as 0.4%, as health care and industrials dragged on the gauge. Initial optimism for stocks in China and Hong Kong faded amid concerns that Asia’s biggest economy will suffer from a spike in virus cases in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities. Beijing Covid Death Reports Fuel Concern China Hiding Data Benchmarks also slumped in Japan as the yen strengthened, joining the Philippines and South Korea lower, while India and Singapore advanced. Asian shares could climb more than 9% through 2023, according to strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. But the road may be bumpy as uncertainty remains over the pace of China’s reopening and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Moreover, the world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year. Still, “modest valuations, light investor positioning and good fundamentals are buffers that should help Asian stocks withstand near-term volatility,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian and global emerging market equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management.
The yen strengthens and JGB futures fall on report PM Kishida may add flexibility to BOJ’s 2% inflation goal. Japan’s 5-year yield climbs to 0.145%, highest since 2015. The moves are later pared after Japan’s Matsuno denies plans to revise BOJ accord. Most currency majors grind higher against the dollar; yuan marginally softer. Asian stocks fall for third day, with Japan and China leading the retreat. Hang Seng erases a gain of as much as 1.7%, Shanghai Composite falls 1.5%. S&P futures nudge 0.1% higher, Nasdaq contracts also slightly firmer. Treasury 10-year yield adds three basis points to 3.51%; Australian curve bear steepens after 10-year yield jumps six basis points. WTI crude rises to around $75.20; gold muted near $1,792.
Australia stocks edged lower: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to close at 7,133.90, with real-estate shares leading declines on the gauge. Shares of Star Entertainment slid 18% to become the worst performer on the gauge after the government issued new proposed tax changes that may impact its business. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.7% to 11,518.14
Indian stocks rose the most in nearly a month, in contrast to the broader Asian market that traded lower. The S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.8% to 61,806.19, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also advanced by a similar measure. Benchmark indexes in most other regional economies, including China, Hong Kong and Japan, fell. Broad-based buying in the market lifted overall sentiments, said Osho Krishan, senior analyst, technical and derivative research, Angel One. “Technically, there has been no substantial change in the market outlook as the bulls made a comeback from their support zone and showcased their resilience,” Krishan said. The gains come as demand in India’s large domestic market cushions it from the impact of a slowing global economy. High-frequency indicators show the economic activity has stayed steady in recent months but may slow going forward as resilience wanes. Reliance Industries gave the biggest boost to the index, adding 1.4%.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5% as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Here is how other key pairs did:
The euro rose by 0.6% to 1.0653, erasing Friday’s loss after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said half-point increases in borrowing costs will continue as officials try to tame soaring prices. In Germany, the IFO business confidence index rose to 88.6 (estimate 87.5) in December from revised 86.4 in November, according to the IFO Institute
The pound rose while gilts plunged across the curve with the belly outperforming slightly as money markets added to BOE tightening wagers and traders looked ahead to QE sales starting January
The yen whipsawed after reports on a potential change to a key agreement between the government and central bank fueled speculation policy makers are moving closer to a hawkish pivot. The BOJ is expected to keep monetary stimulus unchanged Tuesday, yet elevated overnight volatility in the yen reflects risk of a shift in tone when it comes to forward guidance
Australian dollar climbed amid broad greenback weakness spurred by speculation of a hawkish pivot in Japan. Gains were refreshed on news that Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong will travel to Beijing on Tuesday
In rates, the Treasury curve twist-steepened; the 2-year yield fell 1bp and the 10-year yield rose by around 4bps. US 10-year yields around 3.54%, cheaper by 6bps vs. Friday close with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 1.5bp and 10bp in the sector; long-end led losses widens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 3.5bp and 3bp on the day. Dollar issuance slate remains light, with issuance likely concluded now for the year. Treasuries follow more aggressive bear steepening move across gilts, where long-end yield are cheaper by 13bp as traders look ahead to QE sales starting January. This week’s US auctions include $12b 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $19b 5-year TIPS Thursday. In Europe, Bunds and Italian bonds extend the streak of declines to four, the longest in 6 weeks and money markets added to ECB tightening bets as markets continued to digest last week’s hawkish policy messaging.
In commodities, oil futures rose boosted by Beijing’s pro-growth pledge and a US move to refill strategic crude reserves boosted oil futures, though economic growth fears kept prices on track for a second monthly loss.
Bitcoin is softer on the session, but resides towards the mid-point of relative narrow parameters.
It’s a quiet economic calendar, with just the NAHB Housing Market Index on deck (est. 34, prior 33).
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,894.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 426.88
MXAP down 0.2% to 156.07
MXAPJ little changed at 507.98
Nikkei down 1.1% to 27,237.64
Topix down 0.8% to 1,935.41
Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 19,352.81
Shanghai Composite down 1.9% to 3,107.12
Sensex up 0.7% to 61,781.21
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,133.87
Kospi down 0.3% to 2,352.17
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.19%
Euro up 0.6% to $1.0647
Brent Futures up 1.1% to $79.90/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,796.99
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.46% to 104.22
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
EU member states will on Monday discuss a gas-price cap that’s almost one-third lower than an original proposal as they attempt to break a deadlock over the controversial proposal to contain the impact of a historic energy crisis
After this winter, the EU will have to refill gas reserves with little to no deliveries from Russia, intensifying competition for tankers of the fuel. Even with more facilities to import liquefied natural gas coming online, the market is expected to remain tight until 2026, when additional production capacity from the US to Qatar becomes available. That means no respite from high prices
China’s swift abandonment of Covid Zero has seen infections explode, especially in Beijing, which has seen shortages of medicine, overwhelmed hospital staff and deserted streets as residents stay home sick or to avoid the virus. That aligns with what other places experienced as they shifted from eliminating Covid to living with it — except for the lack of officially reported deaths
China’s top leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, further support for the property market while likely scaling back fiscal stimulus
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded lower across the board following the downbeat performance on Wall Street on Friday. ASX 200 was weighed on by its heavyweight Financials and Healthcare sectors but losses were cushioned by gains in the metals-related names. Nikkei 225 was pressured following weekend reports that Japan’s government is set to revise a 10-year-old joint statement with the BoJ that commits the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation “at the earliest date possible,” while Toshiba Corp shares slid over 5% amid Nikkei reports that its preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially mixed but the former failed to hold onto opening gains whilst the latter overlooked the PBoC injecting fresh funds via 14-day reverse repo for the first time in nearly two months, with sentiment dampened by reports of two COVID-related deaths in mainland China. US equity futures traded flat within tight ranges – the ES March contract remained under 3,900.
Top Asian News
China reported two new COVID-related deaths in the mainland on December 18th vs zero a day earlier, according to Reuters.
China’s Shanghai Education Bureau said it is to shut down all in-person classes in kindergartens and childcare centres in the city from December 19th due to COVID-19 infections, according to Reuters.
Chip maker Renesas Electronics (6723 JT) suspended work at its Beijing plant from Friday for several days due to the spread of COVID-19 in the city, according to Reuters.
Beijing has removed or adjusted 126 COVID-19 prevention measures, and all factories and construction sites above designated size and commercial buildings in the city have fully resumed work, officials cited by Global Times said Sunday.
Macau’s government is to cancel COVID risk regulations for mainland China from Tuesday; arrivals from China must have a negative COVID test in the last 72 hours, according to Reuters.
Hong Kong leader Lee to begin a four-day trip to Beijing on Wednesday, at which he is expected to discuss the reopening of the border with mainland China, via SCMP citing sources.
Beijing, China is to buy imported COVID medicines to relive pressure on domestic shortages, via Reuters citing an official; customs will speed up the clearance for imported COVID medicines.
USTR Office has announced a nine-month extension of tariff exclusion on 352 Chinese import product categories, according to Reuters.
China is to maintain ample liquidity in 2023 to implement proactive fiscal policy, according to state media citing the PBoC Vice Governor.
China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggested China will focus on stabilising its economy in 2023 and step up policy to ensure key targets are met, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 9bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 76bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15% – for a daily net injection CNY 83bln. according to Reuters.
Toshiba Corp’s (6502 JT) preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout, according to Nikkei.
Japan is reportedly eyeing an initial budget at a record JPY 114tln for FY23, according to Kyodo.
Australia’s sovereign wealth fund is positioning for inflationary pressures to persist globally and believes that gold and other commodities will offset hindered returns across asset classes, according to Bloomberg.
South Korean Finance Minister said the economy is slowing more rapidly than expected; economic slowdown is to be at its worst pace in H1 2023, via Reuters.
European bourses have commenced the week on a firmer footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, shaking off the softer APAC handover in minimal newsflow. Sectors are firmer ex-Media/Real Estate, featuring outperformance in Energy after Friday’s pressure. Stateside, futures are similarly supported, ES +0.5%, in-tandem with the European tone ahead of a sparse US docket.
Top European News
UK Chancellor Hunt has commissioned the OBR to prepare an economic & fiscal forecast, to be presented alongside the Spring Budget due 15th March, 2023.
UK PM Sunak scrapped Liz Truss’ plan to purchase energy from foreign producers, according to Sky News. Elsewhere, Sunak is set to sign off an extension to the government’s energy support package for businesses for up to 12 months.
Bank of France cut France’s 2023 growth forecast to 0.3% (prev. 0.5%) and cut the 2024 forecast to 1.2% (prev. 1.8%), according to Reuters.
ECB’s de Guindos says the ECB will keep hiking rates and does not know when they will stop, not planning on altering the 2% mid-term price stability goal.
ECB’s Simkus is in no doubt that there will be a 50bps hike in February.
ECB’s Kazimir says rates will not only need to go to restrictive territory but stay there much longer.
FX
USD has faded despite hawkish weekend Fed rhetoric, with the DXY nearer the lower-end of 10412-83 parameters.
Action which benefits peers across the board, with marked outperformance in the JPY as USD/JPY gapped lower from the 136.69 close to either side of the figure.
Antipodeans are the current best performers, with the Kiwi through 0.64 vs USD at best and AUD holding above 0.67.
EUR is bid but to a slightly lesser extent despite hawkish (as expected) ECB rhetoric and strong German Ifo release while Cable has reclaimed 1.22 convincingly.
ZAR is the marked outperformer after Ramaphosa secures re-election as ANC leader for the 2024 presidential campaign.
PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9746 vs exp. 6.9753 (prev. 6.9791)
South African President Ramaphosa has been re-elected as leader of the governing ANC party.
Fixed Income
Bunds are facing modest pressure, though are off worst levels which occurred in wake of ECB’s Kazimir which prompted the 10yr German yield to test 2.20%, action which is being felt more keenly in the periphery.
Gilts are the marked underperformers after last week’s relative resilience, with the UK yield around 3.45%.
USTs are softer, but comparably more contained and haven’t really threatened a breach of initial early-European parameters.
Commodities
A choppy but ultimately fairly contained start to the week for the crude benchmarks. Price action throughout the European morning has been two-way in nature and at times without an overt catalyst or driver.
Currently, WTI & Brent Fed’23 are firmer by around USD 1.00/bbl on the session but are shy of their overnight peaks by around another USD 1.00/bbl, and as such are someway from last week’s respective USD 77.77/bbl and USD 75.26/bbl best levels.
EU countries are reportedly mulling a gas price cap at levels lower than suggested to date, with the bloc set to meet on Monday in a bid to come to an agreement, according to a document cited by Reuters. Czech Republic proposed a EUR 188/MWh cap on Dutch TTF front-month contract vs the EUR 275/MWh cap originally suggested, according to Reuters.
Saudi Aramco, Sinopec and SABIC have expanded refining and petrochemical cooperation and expect to start operations by the end of 2025, according to Reuters.
Algeria is considering exporting its spare power capacity to Europe, according to the Algerian Energy Minister cited by Reuters.
Uniper (UN01 GY) said the first German LNG terminal is to open in Wilhelmshaven; an annual volume of at least 5bcm of natural gas is expected to be imported, according to Reuters.
El Paso Natural Gas Co. has lifted the force majeure at its Amarillo compressor station, according to Reuters.
North Dakota Pipeline Authority said an estimated 200-250k BPD of oil was curtailed on Friday as a result of an extended storm system but anticipated a relatively quick return of production over the next several days, according to Reuters.
USDA and USTR chiefs said Mexican officials have presented potential amendments to restrictions on genetically modified corn and other biotech products, according to Reuters.
Indian antitrust agency raided some steel firms for alleged price collusion, according to Reuters sources.
Peruvian President has urged congress to pass a bill to bring forward general elections amid protests, according to Reuters.
Spot gold and silver are benefitting from the dented dollar while base metals derive support from the generally positive risk tone and the aforementioned unwinding of restrictions in China, with LME Copper firmer by over 1.0%.
Geopolitics
Blasts were heard across Ukrainian capital Kyiv early Monday morning, according to a Reuters witness.
Russian military stationed in Belarus are to conduct tactical exercises, according to Interfax citing the Russian Defence Ministry
Ukrainian advisor Podolyak says, to European partners, Ukraine will not surrender to or fulfil the demands of Russia; adds, “War ending can only be accelerated by increasing artillery/tanks supply. Even unilaterally…”
Qatari diplomat said Qatar has been “exclusively criticised and attacked” in the investigation into the European parliament, according to a statement cited by Reuters. Qatari diplomat added that “limiting dialogue and cooperation” on Qatar before the legal process has ended will negatively affect discussions on global energy security and security cooperation.
North Korea fired two ballistic missiles towards the Korean Peninsula’s east coast on Sunday, according to the South Korean military cited by Reuters. The missiles appeared to have landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), according to NHK.
US State Department said the US is gravely concerned that Iranian authorities are reportedly continuing to kill protesters, according to Reuters.
Italian Economy Minister urged the EU to give a strong and strategic response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and suggested some Italian companies are considering moving production to the US, according to Reuters.
Australian PM said Foreign Minister Wong is to travel to Beijing on Tuesday at the invitation of China, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
10:00: Dec. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 34, prior 33
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Well, I had Argentina in the research World Cup sweepstake. After hours of studying form, player fatigue, different systems, the climate etc., I skillfully closed my eyes and put my hand in a jar and pulled the winners out. I will try to not let my success change me.
As everyone recovers from a breathtaking final, it’ll be interesting to see whether market activity drops off a cliff this week as we approach Christmas even if there was lots of unfinished business after last week. The market doesn’t believe the Fed, with a pricing disconnect now opening up, and the market is now worried the ECB has upped its level of hawkishness. Outside of the ECB’s Guindos and Simkus speaking today we won’t hear much from these two central banks before Xmas so there is unlikely to be much official follow-through to last week’s meetings. It will therefore be left to quite a full slate of data to move markets in what is likely to be a week low on liquidity.
The US consumer will be a big focus with consumer confidence (Wednesday) and personal income data, along with PCE inflation (both Friday). We’ll also see various housing market and business activity indicators from the US, as well as Japan’s CPI report and PPI numbers from Europe.
Elsewhere, the BoJ will be the last major central bank to make a monetary policy decision this year tomorrow. It could be a bit more interesting than usual as we’ll see below.
In terms of some of the highlights now, we start with US housing. This is obviously a big focus at the moment and today’s NAHB housing index (33 DB forecast vs 33 previously), tomorrow’s housing starts (1.400mn vs. 1.425mn) and building permits (1.500mn vs. 1.512mn), Wednesday’s existing home sales (4.25mn vs. 4.43mn) and Friday’s new home sales (600k vs. 632k) will all be important. The hard data is all expected to slow further from last month.
Probably more important is Friday’s income and consumption report which contains the latest reading on core PCE. Our economists think it should come in at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.2% previously), taking the YoY rate down three-tenths to 4.7%. Normally core PCE is above core CPI but over the next 12 months our economists think that anomalies in healthcare components between the two means that the former will edge above the latter at 3.2% for 2023 Q4/Q4 against 3.1%. Friday also see the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, including the important consumer expectations of inflation.
Other business activity gauges for the US include durable goods orders on Friday, with both headline (DB forecast -3.5% vs +1.1% in October) and core (DB forecast unch vs +0.6%) seen showing signs of weakening by our US economists. Indicators of manufacturing activity from regional Feds are also due throughout the week. These releases will follow an array of downside surprises in activity-related gauges recently, including the fall in industrial production last Thursday.
Over in Europe, we will get PPIs from several countries starting with Germany tomorrow. As a reminder, the latest YoY reading stands at 34.5%, some way off the 45.8% peak reached in August. October’s report also showed the first MoM decrease in producer prices since May 2020 amid falling energy costs.
From central banks, all eyes will be on the BoJ tomorrow and we will also get minutes from their October meeting on Thursday. Our Chief Japan economist previews the meeting and addresses the potential for YCC revision or a policy assessment here.
The yen initially rallied as much as +0.61% this morning after Kyodo News reported on Saturday that Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was looking to add flexibility around the 2% inflation goal and would discuss it with the next governor after Kuroda’s term ends in April. This follows Bloomberg last week reporting that a policy review is being considered for next year. However, some of the Japanese currency’s early gains today were reversed after a government spokesman denied the report and the Yen (+0.28%) is currently trading at $136.22.
Following the BoJ’s decision, the CPI report for Japan will be released on Thursday. Our Chief Japan economist (full preview here) expects the overall index to reach 3.9% YoY (vs +3.7% in October), the core index excluding fresh food to be up 3.8% (+3.6%), and core-core index excluding fresh food and energy to rise to 2.8% (+2.5%) as food and durable goods continue to be the key drivers of inflation.
Speaking of energy prices, EU energy ministers will meet today to resume talks regarding a natural gas price cap as well as other measures to cope with the energy crisis as winter looms.
Similar to the US, a number of sentiment indicators will be released in Europe. For Germany, they will include the Ifo survey today and the GfK’s consumer confidence reading on Wednesday. Manufacturing and consumer confidence will also be released for Italy on Friday.
Asian stock markets had a negative start to the final full trading week of 2022, tracking Friday’s losses on Wall Street as synchronised interest rate hikes and a hawkish tone from global central banks weigh on sentiment. Rising Covid-19 cases in China, particularly in Beijing, following the abandonment of Covid Zero are also adding to the bearish mood. Chinese equities are retreating with the Shanghai Composite (-1.31%) and the CSI (-1.03%) both in the red. The Nikkei (-1.15%), the KOSPI (-0.60%) and the Hang Seng (-0.45%) are also weak in early trading. In overnight trading, US stock futures are little changed with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.06%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.07%) slightly down after posting two consecutive weekly losses.
In energy markets, oil futures have moved higher in Asian trading hours with Brent oil (+0.94%) trading at $79.81/bbl and WTI futures (+1.00%) at $75.03/bbl after China indicated its intention to revive consumption heading into 2023. Meanwhile, yields on 10Yr USTs are up +2.92 bps, trading at 3.51%.
Looking back at last week, it was a familiar 2022 story in markets since hawkish central bank announcements from the Fed and the ECB sparked a fresh selloff. The decisions themselves were actually in line with expectations, with both hiking by 50bps. But what struck investors was the much more aggressive tone on future rate hikes than the consensus had expected. For instance, the FOMC’s dot plot signalled that rates would be at 5.1% even by end-2023, which was up from 4.6% in the September dot plot. Meanwhile, the ECB said that rates would “still have to rise significantly”, with President Lagarde explicitly pointing to further 50bp moves ahead.
Given those developments, risk assets sold off across the board, with the S&P 500 ending the week -2.08% lower (-1.11% Friday). That was a massive turnaround from earlier in the week, when the index had surged on the back of the US CPI print on Tuesday that surprised to the downside. Indeed, by the close on Friday the S&P 500 was down -6.06% from its intraday peak for the week just after the release. It was a similar story elsewhere too, with the STOXX 600 down -3.28% over the week (-1.20% Friday), and the Nikkei down -1.34% (-1.87% Friday).
In Europe, sovereign bonds saw significant losses in light of the ECB’s rhetoric, and yields on 10yr German bunds rose by +21.9bps (+7.0bps Friday) to 2.14%. The moves at the front-end of the curve were even larger, with the 2yr German yield up +26.5bps (+3.7bps Friday) to a post-2008 high, which came as investors increased their expectations for the ECB terminal rate. For Treasuries there was a rather different reaction however, with 10yr yields ending the week down -9.6bps (+3.6bps Friday). That occurred as investors grew increasingly confident that the Fed would be able to keep long-term inflation in check, with the 10yr breakeven down to a nearly two-year low of 2.13%.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Modestly constructive risk tone after a softer APAC handover – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 06:47 AM
European bourses have commenced the week on a firmer footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, shaking off the softer APAC handover amid two-way COVID updates.
Stateside, futures are similarly supported, ES +0.4%, in tandem with the European tone ahead of a sparse US docket
USD has faded despite hawkish weekend Fed rhetoric, with the DXY nearer the lower-end of 104.12-83 parameters amid marked initial JPY strength
Bunds are facing modest pressure, though they are off worst levels which occurred in the wake of ECB’s Kazimir, prompting the 10yr German yield to test 2.20%
Choppy but contained session for crude while Dutch TTF deflates as gas cap discussions approach a potential conclusion
Fed’s Mester (non-voter) said she expected the Fed to hike more than its median forecast, and the Fed will need to maintain rates for an extended period once hikes are done
Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian PPI & US NAHB Housing Market Index
USD has faded despite hawkish weekend Fed rhetoric, with the DXY nearer the lower-end of 10412-83 parameters.
Action which benefits peers across the board, with marked outperformance in the JPY as USD/JPY gapped lower from the 136.69 close to either side of the figure.
Antipodeans are the current best performers, with the Kiwi through 0.64 vs USD at best and AUD holding above 0.67.
EUR is bid but to a slightly lesser extent despite hawkish (as expected) ECB rhetoric and strong German Ifo release while Cable has reclaimed 1.22 convincingly.
ZAR is the marked outperformer after Ramaphosa secures re-election as ANC leader for the 2024 presidential campaign.
PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9746 vs exp. 6.9753 (prev. 6.9791)
South African President Ramaphosa has been re-elected as leader of the governing ANC party.
Bunds are facing modest pressure, though are off worst levels which occurred in wake of ECB’s Kazimir which prompted the 10yr German yield to test 2.20%, action which is being felt more keenly in the periphery.
Gilts are the marked underperformers after last week’s relative resilience, with the UK yield around 3.45%.
USTs are softer, but comparably more contained and haven’t really threatened a breach of initial early-European parameters.
A choppy but ultimately fairly contained start to the week for the crude benchmarks. Price action throughout the European morning has been two-way in nature and at times without an overt catalyst or driver.
Currently, WTI & Brent Fed’23 are firmer by around USD 1.00/bbl on the session but are shy of their overnight peaks by around another USD 1.00/bbl, and as such are someway from last week’s respective USD 77.77/bbl and USD 75.26/bbl best levels.
EU countries are reportedly mulling a gas price cap at levels lower than suggested to date, with the bloc set to meet on Monday in a bid to come to an agreement, according to a document cited by Reuters. Czech Republic proposed a EUR 188/MWh cap on Dutch TTF front-month contract vs the EUR 275/MWh cap originally suggested, according to Reuters.
Saudi Aramco, Sinopec and SABIC have expanded refining and petrochemical cooperation and expect to start operations by the end of 2025, according to Reuters.
Algeria is considering exporting its spare power capacity to Europe, according to the Algerian Energy Minister cited by Reuters.
Uniper (UN01 GY) said the first German LNG terminal is to open in Wilhelmshaven; an annual volume of at least 5bcm of natural gas is expected to be imported, according to Reuters.
El Paso Natural Gas Co. has lifted the force majeure at its Amarillo compressor station, according to Reuters.
North Dakota Pipeline Authority said an estimated 200-250k BPD of oil was curtailed on Friday as a result of an extended storm system but anticipated a relatively quick return of production over the next several days, according to Reuters.
USDA and USTR chiefs said Mexican officials have presented potential amendments to restrictions on genetically modified corn and other biotech products, according to Reuters.
Indian antitrust agency raided some steel firms for alleged price collusion, according to Reuters sources.
Peruvian President has urged congress to pass a bill to bring forward general elections amid protests, according to Reuters.
Spot gold and silver are benefitting from the dented dollar while base metals derive support from the generally positive risk tone and the aforementioned unwinding of restrictions in China, with LME Copper firmer by over 1.0%.
UK Chancellor Hunt has commissioned the OBR to prepare an economic & fiscal forecast, to be presented alongside the Spring Budget due 15th March, 2023.
UK PM Sunak scrapped Liz Truss’ plan to purchase energy from foreign producers, according to Sky News. Elsewhere, Sunak is set to sign off an extension to the government’s energy support package for businesses for up to 12 months.
Bank of France cut France’s 2023 growth forecast to 0.3% (prev. 0.5%) and cut the 2024 forecast to 1.2% (prev. 1.8%), according to Reuters.
ECB’s de Guindos says the ECB will keep hiking rates and does not know when they will stop, not planning on altering the 2% mid-term price stability goal.
ECB’s Simkus is in no doubt that there will be a 50bps hike in February.
ECB’s Kazimir says rates will not only need to go to restrictive territory but stay there much longer.
NOTABLE DATA
German Ifo Business Climate New (Dec) 88.6 vs. Exp. 87.4 (Prev. 86.3, Rev. 86.4); Ifo says the likelihood of a recession has reduced with today’s data.
German Ifo Current Conditions New (Dec) 94.4 vs. Exp. 93.5 (Prev. 93.1, Rev. 93.2); Expectations New (Dec) 83.2 vs. Exp. 82.0 (Prev. 80.0, Rev. 80.2)
UK CBI Trends – Orders (Dec) -6 vs. Exp. -9.0 (Prev. -5.0).
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Mester (non-voter) said she expected the Fed to hike more than its median forecast, and the Fed will need to maintain rates for an extended period once hikes are done, via Bloomberg TV. Mester sees tentative signs that inflation rises are stabilising, but not calling a peak. Mester said the timing of a Fed rate cut is not tied to a calendar and the Fed will have to keep Funds Rate above 5% next year. Mester sees growth slowing but does not forecast negative activity.
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, via a Twitter poll, asked if he should step down as the head of Twitter and said he will abide by the results of this poll. The poll currently tilts towards “Yes”; some of the recent weakness in Tesla shares had been attributed to Musk’s split focus across his companies.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Blasts were heard across Ukrainian capital Kyiv early Monday morning, according to a Reuters witness.
Russian military stationed in Belarus are to conduct tactical exercises, according to Interfax citing the Russian Defence Ministry
Ukrainian advisor Podolyak says, to European partners, Ukraine will not surrender to or fulfil the demands of Russia; adds, “War ending can only be accelerated by increasing artillery/tanks supply. Even unilaterally…”
OTHER
Qatari diplomat said Qatar has been “exclusively criticised and attacked” in the investigation into the European parliament, according to a statement cited by Reuters. Qatari diplomat added that “limiting dialogue and cooperation” on Qatar before the legal process has ended will negatively affect discussions on global energy security and security cooperation.
North Korea fired two ballistic missiles towards the Korean Peninsula’s east coast on Sunday, according to the South Korean military cited by Reuters. The missiles appeared to have landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), according to NHK.
US State Department said the US is gravely concerned that Iranian authorities are reportedly continuing to kill protesters, according to Reuters.
Italian Economy Minister urged the EU to give a strong and strategic response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and suggested some Italian companies are considering moving production to the US, according to Reuters.
Australian PM said Foreign Minister Wong is to travel to Beijing on Tuesday at the invitation of China, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is softer on the session, but resides towards the mid-point of relative narrow parameters.
APAC TRADE
BOJ
Japan’s government is set to revise a 10-year-old joint statement with the BoJ that commits the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation “at the earliest date possible”, according to Kyodo. PM Kishida will aim at making the central bank’s 2% inflation target a more flexible goal with room for allowance, Kyodo reported. The new statement could remove the phrase “at the earliest date possible,” or change the language to clarify that the 2% inflation target is a medium- to long-term goal rather than one that needs to be achieved quickly, according to Kyodo. The PM will discuss details on how to revise the statement with a new BoJ governor, who will succeed Kuroda when his term ends in April.
Japan’s government is to consider revising the joint statement with BoJ signed in 2013 under the new BoJ governor to be appointed next year, according to Reuters sources. Sources added there is no consensus on what changes could be made, and discussions are likely to intensify next month.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said there is no truth to the reports that the government is set to change the joint statement signed with the BoJ in 2013, and added that the government hopes to continue working closely with the BoJ, according to Reuters.
Ex-BoJ Deputy Governor Yamaguchi said the BoJ must stand ready to tweak YCC next year if Japan’s economy can withstand overseas economic risks; one idea would be to raise the 10yr JGB yield target from the current 0%. He said the BoJ must enhance the flexibility of its policy by removing the commitment to keep increasing the pace of money printing until inflation stably exceeds 2%, and does not see merit in changing BoJ’s joint statement with the government now, according to Reuters.
EQUITIES
APAC stocks eventually traded lower across the board following the downbeat performance on Wall Street on Friday.
ASX 200 was weighed on by its heavyweight Financials and Healthcare sectors but losses were cushioned by gains in the metals-related names.
Nikkei 225 was pressured following weekend reports that Japan’s government is set to revise a 10-year-old joint statement with the BoJ that commits the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation “at the earliest date possible,” while Toshiba Corp shares slid over 5% amid Nikkei reports that its preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially mixed but the former failed to hold onto opening gains whilst the latter overlooked the PBoC injecting fresh funds via 14-day reverse repo for the first time in nearly two months, with sentiment dampened by reports of two COVID-related deaths in mainland China.
US equity futures traded flat within tight ranges – the ES March contract remained under 3,900.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China reported two new COVID-related deaths in the mainland on December 18th vs zero a day earlier, according to Reuters.
China’s Shanghai Education Bureau said it is to shut down all in-person classes in kindergartens and childcare centres in the city from December 19th due to COVID-19 infections, according to Reuters.
Chip maker Renesas Electronics (6723 JT) suspended work at its Beijing plant from Friday for several days due to the spread of COVID-19 in the city, according to Reuters.
Beijing has removed or adjusted 126 COVID-19 prevention measures, and all factories and construction sites above designated size and commercial buildings in the city have fully resumed work, officials cited by Global Times said Sunday.
Macau’s government is to cancel COVID risk regulations for mainland China from Tuesday; arrivals from China must have a negative COVID test in the last 72 hours, according to Reuters.
Hong Kong leader Lee to begin a four-day trip to Beijing on Wednesday, at which he is expected to discuss the reopening of the border with mainland China, via SCMP citing sources.
Beijing, China is to buy imported COVID medicines to relive pressure on domestic shortages, via Reuters citing an official; customs will speed up the clearance for imported COVID medicines.
USTR Office has announced a nine-month extension of tariff exclusion on 352 Chinese import product categories, according to Reuters.
China is to maintain ample liquidity in 2023 to implement proactive fiscal policy, according to state media citing the PBoC Vice Governor.
China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggested China will focus on stabilising its economy in 2023 and step up policy to ensure key targets are met, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 9bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 76bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15% – for a daily net injection CNY 83bln. according to Reuters.
Toshiba Corp’s (6502 JT) preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout, according to Nikkei.
Japan is reportedly eyeing an initial budget at a record JPY 114tln for FY23, according to Kyodo.
Australia’s sovereign wealth fund is positioning for inflationary pressures to persist globally and believes that gold and other commodities will offset hindered returns across asset classes, according to Bloomberg.
South Korean Finance Minister said the economy is slowing more rapidly than expected; economic slowdown is to be at its worst pace in H1 2023, via Reuters.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Business Confidence Index (Dec) 48.1 (Prev. 51.8); lowest since January 2013, according to World Economics Survey.
New Zealand Consumer Confidence (Q4) 75.6 (Prev. 87.6)
1.c MONDAY//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 60.74 PTS OR 1.92% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 97.86 OR 0.53% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 289.43 OR 1.05% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.21% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.9738//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9726// /Oil UP TO 75.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 79.63 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
end
2B JAPAN
/
JAPAN/
END
3c CHINA /
CHINA/
Another good read; Pepe Escobar on Xi and Saudi Arabia and the new Petroyuan
Xi Jinping has made an offer difficult for the Arabian Peninsula to ignore: China will be guaranteed buyers of your oil and gas, just pay us in yuan…
It would be so tempting to qualify Chinese President Xi Jinping landing in Riyadh a week ago, welcomed with royal pomp and circumstance, as Xi of Arabia proclaiming the dawn of the petroyuan era.
But it’s more complicated than that. As much as the seismic shift implied by the petroyuan move applies, Chinese diplomacy is way too sophisticated to engage in direct confrontation, especially with a wounded, ferocious Empire. So there’s way more going here than meets the (Eurasian) eye.
Xi of Arabia’s announcement was a prodigy of finesse: it was packaged as the internationalization of the yuan. From now on, Xi said, China will use the yuan for oil trade, through the Shanghai Petroleum and National Gas Exchange, and invited the Persian Gulf monarchies to get on board. Nearly 80 percent of trade in the global oil market continues to be priced in US dollars.
Ostensibly, Xi of Arabia, and his large Chinese delegation of officials and business leaders, met with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to promote increased trade. Beijing promised to “import crude oil in a consistent manner and in large quantities from the GCC.” And the same goes for natural gas.
China has been the largest importer of crude on the planet for five years now – half of it from the Arabian peninsula, and more than a quarter from Saudi Arabia. So it’s no wonder that the prelude for Xi of Arabia’s lavish welcome in Riyadh was a special op-ed expanding the trading scope, and praising increased strategic/commercial partnerships across the GCC, complete with “5G communications, new energy, space and digital economy.”
Foreign Minister Wang Yi doubled down on the “strategic choice” of China and wider Arabia. Over $30 billion in trade deals were duly signed – quite a few significantly connected to China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects.
And that brings us to the two key connections established by Xi of Arabia: the BRI and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
The Silk Roads of Arabia
BRI will get a serious boost by Beijing in 2023, with the return of the Belt and Road Forum. The first two bi-annual forums took place in 2017 and 2019. Nothing happened in 2021 because of China’s strict zero-Covid policy, now abandoned for all practical purposes.
The year 2023 is pregnant with meaning as BRI was first launched 10 years ago by Xi, first in Central Asia (Astana) and then Southeast Asia (Jakarta).
BRI not only embodies a complex, multi-track trans-Eurasian trade/connectivity drive but it is the overarching Chinese foreign policy concept at least until the mid-21st century. So the 2023 forum is expected to bring to the forefront a series of new and redesigned projects adapted to a post-Covid and debt-distressed world, and most of all to the loaded Atlanticism vs. Eurasianism geopolitical and geoeconomic sphere.
Also significantly, Xi of Arabia in December followed Xi of Samarkand in September – his first post-Covid overseas trip, for the SCO summit in which Iran officially joined as a full member. China and Iran in 2021 clinched a 25-year strategic partnership deal worth a potential $400 billion in investments. That’s the other node of China’s two-pronged West Asia strategy.
The nine permanent SCO members now represent 40 percent of the world’s population. One of their key decisions in Samarkand was to increase bilateral trade, and overall trade, in their own currencies.
And that further connects us to what has happening in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, in full synchronicity with Riyadh: the meeting of the Supreme Eurasia Economic Council, the policy implementation arm of the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in Kyrgyzstan, could not have been more straightforward: “The work has accelerated in the transition to national currencies in mutual settlements… The process of creating a common payment infrastructure and integrating national systems for the transmission of financial information has begun.”
The next Supreme Eurasian Economic Council will take place in Russia in May 2023, ahead of the Belt and Road Forum. Take them together and we have the lineaments of the geoeconomic road map ahead: the drive towards the petroyuan proceeding in parallel to the drive towards a “common paying infrastructure” and most of all, a new alternative currency bypassing the US dollar.
That’s exactly what the head of the EAEU’s macroeconomic policy, Sergey Glazyev, has been designing, side by side with Chinese specialists.
Total Financial War
The move towards the petroyuan will be fraught with immense peril.
In every serious geoeconomic gaming scenario, it’s a given that an enfeebled petrodollar translates as the end of the imperial free lunch in effect for over five decades.
Concisely, in 1971, then-US President Richard “Tricky Dick” Nixon pulled the US from the gold standard; three years later, after the 1973 oil shock, Washington approached the Saudi oil minister, notorious Sheikh Yamani, with the proverbial offer-you-can’t-refuse: we buy your oil in US dollars and in return you buy our Treasury bonds, lots of weapons, and recycle whatever’s left in our banks.
Cue to Washington now suddenly able to dispense helicopter money – backed by nothing – ad infinitum, and the US dollar as the ultimate hegemonic weapon, complete with an array of sanctions over 30 nations who dare to disobey the unilaterally imposed “rules-based international order.”
Impulsively rocking this imperial boat is anathema. So Beijing and the GCC will adopt the petroyuan slowly but surely, and certainly with zero fanfare. The heart of the matter, once again, is their mutual exposure to the Western financial casino.
In the Chinese case, what to do, for instance, with those whopping $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds. In the Saudi case, it’s hard to think about “strategic autonomy” – such as what’s enjoyed by Iran – when the petrodollar is a staple of the Western financial system. The menu of possible imperial reactions includes everything from a soft coup/ regime change to Shock and Awe over Riyadh – followed by regime change.
Yet what the Chinese – and the Russians – are aiming at goes way beyond a Saudi (and Emirati) predicament. Beijing and Moscow have clearly identified how everything – the oil market, global commodities markets – is tied to the role of the US dollar as reserve currency.
And that’s exactly what the EAEU discussions; the SCO discussions; from now on the BRICS+ discussions; and Beijing’s two-pronged strategy across West Asia are focused to undermine.
Beijing and Moscow, within the BRICS framework, and further on within the SCO and the EAEU, have been closely coordinating their strategy since the first sanctions on Russia post-Maidan 2014, and the de facto trade war against China unleashed in 2018.
Now, after the February 2022 Special Military Operation launched by Moscow in Ukraine and NATO has devolved into, for all practical purposes, war against Russia, we have stepped beyond Hybrid War territory and are deep into Total Financial War.
SWIFTly drifting away
The whole Global South absorbed the “lesson” of the collective (institutional) west freezing, as in stealing, the foreign reserves of a G20 member, on top of it a nuclear superpower. If that happened to Russia, it could happen to anyone. There are no “rules” anymore.
Russia since 2014 has been improving its SPFS payment system, in parallel with China’s CIPS, both bypassing the western-led SWIFT banking messaging system, and increasingly used by Central Banks across Central Asia, Iran and India. All across Eurasia, more people are ditching Visa and Mastercard and using UnionPay and/or Mir cards, not to mention Alipay and WeChat Pay, both extremely popular across Southeast Asia.
Of course the petrodollar – and the US dollar, still representing under 60 percent of global foreign exchange reserves – will not ride into oblivion overnight. Xi of Arabia is just the latest chapter in a seismic shift now driven by a select group in the Global South, and not by the former “hyperpower.”
Trading in their own currencies and a new, global alternative currency is right at the top of the priorities of that long list of nations – from South America to Northern Africa and West Asia – eager to join BRICS+ or the SCO, and in quite a few cases, both.
The stakes could not be higher. And it’s all about subjugation or exercising full sovereignty. So let’s leave the last essential words to the foremost diplomat of our troubled times, Russia’s Sergey Lavrov, at the international interparty conference Eurasian Choice as a Basis for Strengthening Sovereignty:
“The main reason for today’s growing tensions is the stubborn striving of the collective West to maintain a historically diminishing domination in the international arena by any means it can… It is impossible to impede the strengthening of the independent centers of economic growth, financial might and political influence. They are emerging on our common continent of Eurasia, in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.”
All aboard…the Sovereign Train.
END
CHINA/RUSSIA
The USA does not like to see this:
(zerohedge)
China, Russia “Strengthen Cooperation” With Large-Scale Joint Navy Drills
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 04:40 PM
Russia and China have announced new large-scale joint naval drills to be held this week in the East China Sea at a moment the West has continued to be alarmed that relations between Moscow and Beijing have remained unfazed by the Ukraine war.
The Russian defense ministry (MoD) announced the drills will be held December 21-27, with a purpose to “strengthen cooperation between the two navies to maintain peace and stability in the Asian Pacific region.” There will also be an anti-submarine warfare and missile launch training component to the drills.
“The Russian fleet at the exercise will be represented by [the] Pacific Fleet flagship, the missile cruiser Varyag, the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, and [two] corvettes,” the Russian MoD statement continued.
Dubbed the “Maritime Cooperation 2022” exercise, air forces from both countries are also expected to continue patrolling the Sea of Japan and East China Sea, as they’ve been observed doing of late.
The AP reports based on official statements, “The Russian Defense Ministry said the Varyag missile cruiser, the Marshal Shaposhnikov destroyer and two corvettes of Russia’s Pacific Fleet would take part in maneuvers in the East China Sea starting Wednesday.”
“The ministry said the Chinese navy planned to deploy several surface warships and a submarine for the exercise,” AP continues. “Russian and Chinese aircraft will also take part in the drills, according to the ministry.”
Large groupings of warships have been observed en route just ahead of the drills, with a detachment of Russia’s Pacific Fleet having departed the far eastern port of Vladivostok.
As for the Chinese side, Japan’s Defense Ministry previously said it monitored at least nine Chinese navy warships entering the western Pacific in preparation, including the Liaoning aircraft carrier.
“The Liaoning was spotted transiting from the East China Sea to the western Pacific Ocean through the Miyako Strait, between Japan’s Miyako and Okinawa islands, last Friday,” writes South China Morning Post. “It was escorted by the Type 055 destroyer 103 Anshan, Type 052D destroyer Chengdu, Type 054A frigate Zaozhuang, and the Type 901 supply ship Hulunhu.”
The US has sought to pressure Beijing to back off its “no limits” partnership with Moscow (as was declared not long before Russia’s Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine); however, clearly all signals point in the other direction – that China has remained unswayed and is in fact deepening cooperation even on a military level.
END
Robert H on the above topic:
Xi of Arabia and the petroyuan drive
The world is changing in ways not seen since 1945. The decision to kick Russia off Swift and sequester their State Capital holdings derived from the sale of resources ended any concept of a Rules based international order. The fed system previously proved its’ ability and insensitively in high jacking Private Capital taking State Capital theft to a new level.
What we are seeing is shift of financial settlement move away from the USD to alternative currencies with the Yuan as the big winner. China could not have asked for a better clown show than the one in DC who seems incapable of understanding they have blown their hand and are losing the pot. Sadly inept decision making of this show has an impact on everyone affected by the value and velocity of USD in use in settlement of trade. Clearly, if trade is being settled in alternative currencies both velocity and value change becoming much lower. Each day the biggest trade settlement is for energy. Once that is significantly altered the value of USD is forced to decline as its’ requirement is lessened. And because of that lower levels of dollar holdings are required abroad. And this directly affects current money centers like London and Hong Kong etc in dollar based trading. It also challenges the value of many derivatives putting values and counter party settlement capability at risk.
The counter balance to this is interest rates increasing which actually lessens the impact since many international borrowers in USD are forced to roll debt over capitalizing interest not able to be paid making them more captive to a dollar centric world. This is why rates are rising to protect hegemony and the inflation caused by a lower valued dollar. And the fallout is in related currencies trying to hold relative value in relation by also raising rates to escape the reality of currency value that will be lower in the future and to put off the bite of USD dollar borrowings made during the lockdowns, effectively making many nations vassals under the burden of being indentured debtors.
As the dollar is regulated to find new levels of utility and value, everyone dependent on it by location or related currency will have impact in correlation to find equilibrium with this new reality.
I have several times written about the GAS CRISIS in Europe with little realized concern as politicians spew their balderdash about readiness. It is a lie. . So let me try one time to be clear! Gas levels in storage are down to 86% and falling rapidly. I have written about the need to have pressure coming in to storage facilities to continue to receive flow. It seems no one understands or cares. At some point and it will not be 50% flow will cease without alternative injection systems to gas itself. At that point, Europe will freeze. and General Winter will create havoc not seen before. Already various governments expect thousands to die of cold and this number can be quite higher. Buy woolens and be prepared because no one will do for you. And if you have relatives abroad think about a extended visit.END
Russia is not happy with this: USA sends infantry unit to a base just a few miles from Russian border (Kaliningrad)
(zerohedge)
US Sends Infantry Unit To Base Just Miles Away From Russian Border In Estonia
FRIDAY, DEC 16, 2022 – 07:20 PM
Last week the US Embassy in Lithuania announced the Pentagon plans to step up troop deployments in the Baltic states, taking what was previously categorized as “episodic” troop deployments and turning toward a “persistent rotational presence” across the Baltics, including in Estonia – which shares two small stretches of land-border with Russia.
In follow-up, on Friday the government of Estonia confirmed that a US infantry company has newly arrived in the country, to take part of joint defense drills and training.
According to the the Friday statement posted to the Estonian defense ministry’s website: “A United States infantry company arrived at Taara base in Võru this week as part of a deployment to train and serve with the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Estonian Defense Forces.”
It further confirmed that “The U.S. infantry company will be stationed in Võru during its deployment and will participate in joint exercises with the Estonian Defense Forces to enhance interoperability and to demonstrate the flexibility of combat credible forces to respond to threats.”
Crucially, Taara base in Võru is a mere dozens of miles away from the Russian border – merely about a half-hour away by car. Russian state media has complained that US-Estonia troop exercises will be conducted a mere 20 kilometers away from the border.
The US 1st Infantry Division Artillery Commander cited in Estonia’s statement, Colonel Richard Ikena, said American troops are “excited to be in Estonia” and “look forward to working shoulder-to-shoulder, alongside our Allies.”
US Infantry troops along with a HIMARS (long-range missile) platoon will now be conducting drills at a distance from the Russian border that’s similar to the distance between San Diego and Tijuana, Mexico…Map source: Nations Online Project
Additionally, the statement confirmed that the US is deploying long-range missiles in the NATO allied country, to now include M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) deployed by the US right on Russia’s doorstep.
“The United States will also deploy a HIMARS platoon to Estonia, along with the corresponding control equipment and systems, and will cooperate with the Estonian Defense Forces to establish a divisional structure within the framework of NATO,” the US military and Estonian defense ministry confirmed.
Already there have been ratcheting tensions between Moscow and the Baltic states, given that among European nations they have been among the most hawkish in calling for isolating and punishing the Russian government. A heightened US troops deployment along with long-range missiles will certainly escalation these tensions as the war in Ukraine continues to grow more dangerous and unpredictable, especially concerning the potential scenario of direct US-Russia clashes.
END
SERBIA/KOSOVO
War is being sprung on multiple fronts.
Serbia seeks troop deployment in Northern Kosovo
(Dave DeCamp/Antiwar)
Serbia Seeks Troop Deployment In Kosovo, Informs NATO
Serbia has formally asked NATO if it can deploy up to 1,000 troops into northern Kosovo, where Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic says ethnic Serbs are being “terrorized” by the Kosovo government based in Pristina.
Vucic made the request to the commander of NATO forces in Kosovo, known as KFOR. Serbian officials say that a UN resolution that formally ended the Kosovo war allows for the deployment of up to 1,000 Serbian troops into Kosovo, but Vucic still doesn’t expect the request to be granted.Image via OWP
“The request says that a certain number of (Serbian troops), from one hundred to up to 1,000, return to Kosovo,” he said.
Tensions have been high in northern Kosovo since the summer when Pristina tried to implement a policy that would require ethnic Serbs to acquire license plates issued by Kosovo. Serbs in the area don’t recognize the government in Pristina and still use Belgrade-issued documents to cross the border.
Serbia and Kosovo failed to reach a deal in talks back in November, as Pristina wants any agreement to involve recognition from Belgrade. According to RT, Serbs have barricaded border crossings between Serbia and Kosovo to protest the deployment of ethnic Albanian police in the area.
Serbia wants to deploy troops to secure the border crossings and says NATO forces cannot protect the Kosovo Serbs from ethnic Albanians. KFOR previously threatened to intervene if “stability is jeopardized” in northern Kosovo when tensions were high over the summer and would likely take action if Serbia went ahead with the troop deployment.
KFOR has been present in the breakaway former Serbian province of Kosovo since the US and NATO 1999 bombing campaign against Serbia. Kosovo formally declared its independence in 2008, but it’s not recognized by enough countries to have a seat at the UN.
Currently, there are about 3,700 NATO troops deployed under the KFOR mission, including over 600 US troops.
end
From Robert H:
The threat of expanding conflict is rising quickly
I will say this plainly, if you are on the border with Ukraine or near a military base in Poland, get out while you can. There are many moving pieces on the ground now that offer little opportunity to prepare. The same goes for Romania where 90,000 NATO troops are massed. Once they go they will have to go through Moldova onto the Ukraine where no doubt they will be met by missiles and no doubt a US air escalation. And this will lead in quick order to a direct Cuban missile crisis not seen since the Kennedy era. Be certain there is no competent inhabitant in the White House, like Kennedy. There is only many strings being pulled and the script is up to the teleprompter writers.
Russian war materials factories have now gone to a 6 day work week. If they go to a 7 day week schedule 24/7 Europe will be on fire. Current activity is to maintain a battle readiness and equipment capability outside of what is being moved into forward positions for the upcoming campaign to maintain a ready reserve status taking into account losses anticipated in the near future. And this is not old equipment but new equipment. Older missiles and artillery shells are being used up and replaced by modern more deadly armaments.
12/17/22 By WarNews24/7 Translated from Greek
For the first time since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has directly accused the US and Poland of attacks against Russian targets deep inside the country.
This is not just escalation but the cause of a Third World War. Moscow now has the right to self-defense and is legitimized to hit, at least, targets in Poland.
Data from intercepted Ukrainian drones confirm the involvement of the US and Poland in preparing attacks on Russia, a source from the Russian security services told TASS.
“Competent services of the Russian Federation analyzed electronic components of the intercepted unmanned aerial vehicles, used by Ukraine for attacks on objects of Russian infrastructure – in particular in Sevastopol, Crimea, Kursk, Belgorod and Voronezh regions, ” the service said.
According to the estimates of experts in Russia, “a number of events confirm the direct involvement of the USA and Poland in the massive military-logistical support of the Kiev regime, in the preparation and implementation of joint terrorist attacks on the ground of the Russian Federation”.
Moscow claims that “the drone avionics and control stations were manufactured by American Spektreworks, a company that performed the initial coordination and control of the drones at Scottsdale Airport in Arizona.”
In addition, the relevant services emphasized that “the final assembly and flight tests of these drones took place on Polish territory, near the Rzeszow airport, which is used by the US and NATO as the main supply hub for the Ukrainian armed forces . “
“The installation of the payload, the flight mission and the launch itself were carried out from Odessa and Krivoy Rog,” claim Russian experts.
Ukrainian drones hit the military airfields Engels-2 (Saratov Region) and Diaghilev (Ryazan Region) on December 6. These strikes were followed by the eighth massive missile attack against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Medvedev’s message to Poles, Americans & British Yesterday’s statements by Medvedev were by no means accidental. Russian Security Council Vice Chairman Dmitry Medvedev outlined legitimate military targets for Russia via his Telegram channel.
According to his statements, legitimate military targets for Russia may include the military-political leadership of the enemy country and the armed forces of other countries that are allies of the enemy country.
Dmitry Medvedev said that during the current conflict with Ukraine, the question of legitimate military targets is interpreted in different ways, but there are “rules of conduct during war, which are rooted in sacred sources.”
Analytically: “What are considered legitimate military targets today? Under the so-called rules of war, these are:
Any enemy troops (legal and illegal combatants) not formally withdrawn from their armed forces. All military and auxiliary equipment of the enemy. Any objects related to military infrastructure, as well as civilian infrastructure that contributes to the achievement of military objectives (bridges, transport stations, roads, energy facilities, factories and workshops, at least partial fulfillment of military orders, etc.).
The military-political leadership of the enemy country. The armed forces of other countries that officially entered the war, which are allies of the enemy country, and the objects located on their territory, referred to in paragraphs 1-4.
Today, however, there is a basic question: can the hybrid war, which NATO declared de facto in our country, be considered the Alliance’s entry into the war against Russia? Can the supply of a huge amount of weapons to Ukraine be considered an attack on Russia?
And accordingly, the military objectives of the North Atlantic bloc are listed in paragraphs. 1-4 of this note?
The leaders of NATO countries sing with one voice that their countries and the entire bloc are not at war with Russia.
But everyone knows very well that everything is different…”.
Pepe Escobar on the state of affairs inside Ukraine
(Pepe Escobar)
Escobar: News From The NATOstan-Imposed Meat Grinder
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
Somewhere in her private pantheon, Pallas Athena, Goddess of Geopolitics, is immensely enjoying the show.
No one ever lost money capitalizing on the unlimited nonsense spewed out by the collective deer-caught-in-the-headlights also known as Western mainstream media – complete with showering Person of the Year awards on a megalomaniac, cocaine-fueled lousy actor impersonating a warlord.
The non-stop trashy parade of Western military analysts is now “assessing” that the first targets of an incoming, joint Russia-Belarus attack on the 404 black hole formerly known as Ukraine will be Lviv, Lutsk, Rivne, Zhytomyr, and why not throw Kiev in the mix straight out of a second axis.
The Russian General Staff is attentively monitoring all the action and may even follow the advice of such “analysts”.
And then there’s outright panic, as the Ministry of Defense announced that the Strategic Missile Forces have loaded two Yars ICBMs into their intended silos. Cue to widespread shrieks of horror of the “Russia Readies Nuclear Missile Capable Of Striking Deep Into US” variety.
Some facts though never change. Number One is NATO as a figment of the collective West’s – extremely impaired – imagination. If push ever came to shove – as Straussian/neo-con armchair warriors hope and pray – Russia can conveniently defeat the whole of NATO as there is hardly anything “there”.
That, of course, would require a massive Russian mobilization. As it stands, Russia may look feeble in a few quarters as they activated at best 100,000 troops against possibly 1 million Ukrainian troops. It’s as if Moscow was not exactly seduced by the idea of “winning” – which may be the case, in a quite twisted way.
Even now, Moscow has not mobilized enough troops to occupy Ukraine – which, in theory, would be imperative to completely “denazify” the Kiev racket. The operative concept though is “in theory”. Moscow in fact is busy demonstrating a completely new theory – irrespective of the fact that a few exalted souls have been peddling that Putin should be replaced by the FSB’s Alexander Bortnikov.
“There will be nothing left of the enemy”
With its array of hypersonic missiles, Russia can knock out all NATO bridges, ports, airports as well as power stations, oil and natural gas storage, Rotterdam oil and natural gas installations, in a matter of a few hours. All energy production equipment across NATOstan would be destroyed. Europe would be shut off from natural resources. A dazed and confused Empire would be unable to move troops, any troops, to Europe.
And still provocations run unabated. The recent attack by Tu-141 Ukrainian drones against Engels-2 airbase was blamed by Moscow on Kiev – which predictably denied all responsibility. Yet what really mattered was Moscow’s strategic messaging to US/NATO, with Putin flirting with the notion that sooner or later the response may be up a serious notch in case US/NATO weaponry supplied to Kiev is used to strike deep into sensitive Russian Federation territory.
The current Russian doctrine even allows Moscow to respond with nuclear strikes; after all Engels-2 airbase is home to nuclear-capable bombers, prime strategic assets.
The drones were certainly launched by infiltrated agents inside Russian territory. If they had originated from outside Russia, and interpreted as nuclear missiles, that could have triggered the launch against NATOstan of hundreds of Russian nuclear missiles.
Putin himself made it – ominously – quite clear at the Eurasia Economic Council summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, a week ago:
“I assure you, after the early warning system receives a signal of a missile attack, hundreds of our missiles are in the air (…) It is impossible to stop them (…) There will be nothing left of the enemy, because it is impossible to intercept a hundred missiles. This, of course, is a deterrent – a serious deterrent.”
Not, of course, to the stupidity-corroded Straussian-neocon gang who are actually running American foreign “policy”.
It’s no wonder reliable Russian intel sources established that the missiles that hit Engels-2 were locally launched, though the Kiev regime desired it to be believed otherwise.
And that turns the whole charade into a Dadaist farce – with a dazed and confused Empire still bound to a maniac in Kiev who still believes that the Ukrainian S-300 that hit Poland came from Russia. Cue to the whole world – and not only Washington – as hostage to a “Person of the Year” maniac with the – virtual – power of provoking a worldwide nuclear war.
Red Napoleon in da house
Meanwhile, on the ground, Russia has gone Deep Operations Strategy, big time. In several spots along the extensive frontline, they attack the points that are most likely to draw out poor Ukrainian reserves hiding in the second line of defense. When reserves come out through barren, muddy lands and terrible roads to the rescue of frontline units, entire battalions are massacred.
Russians never go deep into the third line – where command and control may be located. What’s in play is attrition warfare under Deep Operations Strategy, straight out of the playbook of the legendary “Red Napoleon”, Field Marshall Mikhail Tukhachevsky.
Russia saves soldiers, personnel and equipment. The whole thing works wonders in difficult terrain where vehicles get bogged down in rainy roads. This rinse and repeat tactic, day in day out, for months on end has led to (at least) 400,000 Ukrainian casualties. Call it the epitome of Attritional Warfare.
Historians will relish that the whole scenario resembles the Battle of Agincourt – where wave after wave of French Knights (playing the role of present day Ukrainians, and Polish/NATO mercenaries) kept running uphill against English archers and knights who just stood still and let them come, hitting the second line again and again.
The difference, of course, is that Russians are employing attritional warfare tactics day after day for six months now, while Agincourt was just one battle in a single day. By the time this meat grinder is over an entire generation of Ukrainians and Poles will have gone to meet their maker.
The collective West’s myth of a Ukrainian “victory” against the Russian war of attrition does not even qualify as cosmic delusion. It’s a lousy, lethal joke. The only way out would be to sit down at the negotiating table, now, before the hammer (the next Russian offensive) comes down on the anvil (the existing frontline).
But NATO, of course, as Stultifying Stoltenberg keeps reminding the world, does not do negotiations.
Which, in a sense, may be a blessing, as NATO may end up breaking up in myriad pieces, totally humiliated on the ground despite all its elaborate warmongering plans.
Andrei Martyanov has been peerless tracking the collective West’s complete economic, moral, intellectual – and most of all military – degradation, everything drenched in lies, lousy P.R. twists and “stupefying incompetence across the board.”
All this while Russia prepares “for yet another ‘defeat’, like retaking all of Donbass and then… Who knows what then. A quick win for Russia would be a loss because NATO would still exist. No, Russia has to pace this so as it sucks in NATO into the grinder.”
Somewhere in her private pantheon, Pallas Athena, Goddess of Geopolitics, is immensely enjoying the show. Oh, wait; she’s actually reincarnated, and her name is Maria Zakharova
end
Late in the afternoon:
Kremlin: “US & Russia On The Brink Of A Direct Clash” In Ukraine
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 03:40 PM
The Kremlin is urgently calling on Washington to avoid further escalation over its support to Ukraine’s military, on the same day that President Vladimir Putin made a rare state visit to neighboring Belarus, amid growing fears that Belarusian armed forces could enter the fighting in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Monday that the United States’ “dangerous and short-sighted policy” has put it “on the brink of a direct clash” with Moscow, according to state media reports.
“It is the US’ desire to maintain American hegemony at all costs… as well as its arrogant unwillingness to engage in a serious dialogue on security guarantees” that led to the current crisis, she continued, in reference to Moscow’s last February pre-invasion appeal for “guarantees” that Ukraine would not enter NATO.
State media described the sharp words as a necessary reaction to US State Department Spokesman Ned Price’s recently placing sole blame on Moscow for the rapid deterioration in US-Russia relations. Price had characterized the current state of relations as “unstable and unpredictable”.
Zakharova continued in the Monday remarks: “After the high-profile fiasco in Afghanistan, America is increasingly drawn into a new conflict, not only supporting the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev financially and with weapons, but also increasing its military presence on the ground.” While not specifying the precise accusation regarding a US “presence on the ground” – this could be a reference to recent widespread reporting that US intelligence has expanded its role in helping the Ukrainians, especially with things like targeting.
“This is a dangerous and short-sighted policy that puts the US and Russia on the brink of a direct clash,” the FM spokesperson said further. “For its part, Moscow urges the Joe Biden administration to soberly assess the situation and not to unleash a spiral of dangerous escalation. We hope that they will hear us in Washington, though there is no reason for optimism so far.”
This month has witnessed multiple bombshell revelations concerning the Pentagon and US intelligence’s deepening role in Ukraine, including the following:
All of this and more strongly suggests to two sides are indeed inching toward direct showdown and clash, also as there still appears no appetite for so much as a plan even remotely on the horizon to get Kiev officials to the ceasefire negotiating table with Russia.
As for the ongoing speculation that Belarusian forces could enter the Ukraine conflict in support of Russia, top Russian officials are denying this “option”… for now at least.
Russian troops have received a fresh batch of ‘Penicillin’ advanced reconnaissance systems, RIA Novosti news agency reported on Saturday, citing a source. The hardware is expected to be deployed in Ukraine.
According to RIA, the Russian Defense Ministry “received another batch of the advanced 1B76 Penicillin acoustic and infrared reconnaissance systems,” adding that the device “effectively detects the positions of the Ukrainian artillery and transmits coordinates for their prompt destruction.”
The time from identification to sending coordinates is 5 seconds .. Ukrainian artillery will be demolished faster than ever .. same goes for rockets and the like .. as I have tried to explain the Ukraine is just another testing ground for equipment to prefect battlefield superiority.. so far Russia has been using dated stockpiles with new systems soon to be unleashed like Penicillin
NATO operators of equipment will die much faster now
end
Ukraine vs Russia
Robert H:
The whole Ukrainian front is collapsing in real time. So called reserves have for weeks been pounded and destroyed along with front line troops. Zelensky is now caught in a trap. The moment he negotiates the truth to Ukrainians will come out and he will be killed. The balderdash of propaganda in the Ukraine is as bad as it is in North Korea. Truth died there long ago. There are many hands now at risk of enabling and truth being exposed. All the money poured in there is for naught. And consequences for Europe from energy shortages abound. If there are negotiations, it will be on Russian terms not NATO’s. This fiasco is to far gone and there is no trust left, to talk about. Merkel’s admission shocked many Russians and sealed any notion of a Western orientation as they clearly understand that their existence is threatened by Western interests and there can be no respective relationship worthy of investment. This comes at a time when the whole world economy is entered into a recession. There are no exceptions to major engines of growth from America to India to China as all are in a deflationary state. Demand globally is falling and early reports of skyrocketing inventory levels are being kept quiet for now. The best clue is future falling freight rates which are collapsing. Things should be different but it is where we are and where we are going with an divided currency world coming into being.
Iran-Made Drones Pummel Ukraine’s Capital, With Over A Dozen Shot Down
WEDNESDAY, DEC 14, 2022 – 10:10 AM
Multiple blasts rocked the Ukrainian capital on Wednesday morning in a predawn raid, sending residents across Kiev into bomb shelters and underground metro stations as air sirens blared. The sirens rang out while the attack occurred for over half an hour as drones hovered under the cover of darkness.
Ukrainian officials said air defense systems were activated against the inbound suicide drones, and claimed to have shot down a total of 13. Mayor Vitali Klitschko identified them as Shahed drones which reportedly targeted the city’s energy infrastructure.
‘Was left guessing’ -journalist Rupar discusses Twitter suspension
Klitschko cited explosions in the central Shevchenkivskyi district, with resulting damage to two administrative buildings, but no casualties have been reported. It was the first significant Russian assault on the capital in days.
Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said in the attack aftermath that“The air defenses worked well,” detailing that “Thirteen (drones) were shot down.” President Zelensky in follow-up told his forces: “Well done, I am proud,” in a brief video message hailing the performance of the air defense units.
These attacks are expected to hasten Biden administration decision-making surrounding whether to send Patriot anti-air missile defense systems to the Ukrainians, marking a significant escalation with Russia. However, even if Patriots for Ukraine are approved, it’s likely to take multiple months for them to deploy on the battlefield, given also the Ukrainians would have to be trained on their operation.
Heavy fighting has continued to unfold this week in Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.
Meanwhile, the UK is joining US-led efforts to disrupt the Iran to Moscow weapons pipeline amid these ongoing drone assaults on Ukrainian cities.
The UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) announced Tuesday new sanctions on both Russian and Iranian military commanders. “Intentionally directing attacks against civilians and civilian objects is a serious violation of international humanitarian law. Those responsible must be held to account,” a statement said.
Via Al Jazeera: The latest waves of aerial attacks over the last month have appeared to target primarily the national energy grid as Ukraine heads into a frigid winter…
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said this was in response to Tehran “striking sordid deals” with Moscow “in a desperate attempt to survive” – detailing further that it is Iranian-manufactured drones continuing to play a “central role” in Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.
end
We are getting closer and closer to a world war
(zerohedge)
Putin Embraced By Lukashenko In Rare State Visit As Fears Mount Belarus Could Join Offensive
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 08:45 AM
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said the situation in neighboring Ukraine is “escalating” just before receiving a rare in-country visit by his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. In statements published by the presidential press service, Lukashenko sought to refute rumors and allegations that Moscow is essentially running the country. This as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were already in Minsk on Monday just ahead of Putin’s arrival in Minsk.
While still under Western sanctions over Belarus’ role in assisting Russia as a staging ground for the Ukraine invasion, Lukashenko has struck a fiercely defiant tone, saying “I would like to emphasize this feature once again: no one, except us, governs Belarus.” He added: “We must always proceed from the fact that we are a sovereign state and independent.”
On deep ties with Russia as part of the ‘Union State’ Lukashenko said Belarus will “never be enemies” with the country. “This is the state closest to us, the peoples closest to us,” he explained . “I think that as long as we are in power, we will adhere to this trend. If it were otherwise, it would be like in Ukraine.”
The two countries do indeed seem to be signaling escalation in Ukraine, given their militaries launched huge joint drills in Belarus involving tank and infantry maneuvers, and artillery and sniper exercises.
“From the morning until the evening twilight – there is not a single second of silence at the training grounds of Belarus,” the Belarusian defense ministry said in releasing footage.
This has sparked fears in Kiev and among its Western backers that Belarusian forces could directly enter the Ukraine conflict in support of the Russian defense ministry.
Last February, a major Russian military build-up on Belarusian soil ostensibly for “training exercises” turned out to be the precursor to major invasion. While there were conflicting reports at the time that Belarusian ground units had entered Ukraine, this turned out to be premature, as Belarus limited its participation to playing host to Russian forces as a logistics and staging ground of sorts.
All eyes will be on the potential for a huge announcement by Putin and Lukashenko, given the timing of the official trip…
It will mark Putin’s first state visit to Belarus in three years, as The Hill has noted. If Belarus is about to enter the war, it could be the result of several of Moscow’s “red lines” having been cross.
As AFP has reported Monday, Ukraine has once again launched attacks on a border city and region inside Russia proper. “In fighting that has spilled over into Russian regions bordering Ukraine, one person was killed, and others were wounded Sunday in Belgorod following attacks that the local authorities blamed on Kyiv.”
“Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said Ukrainian strikes left around 14,000 people without power in a district of the Belgorod region,” the report indicated.
Another among Moscow’s red lines is the potential for Washington to provide Ukraine with Patriot anti-air defense missiles. The White House is said to be finalizing plans, however, could be stalling the decision especially given the latest maneuvering between Russian and Belarus.
6/GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
A must read//setting the record on the power of ivermectin
The COVID-19 pandemic brought us a panoply of lies and evidence-light declarations that were less intended to inform Americans than to consolidate power and buy time. Among these were Anthony Fauci’s famous shift from arguing against wearing masks, to recommending wearing one, and, finally, to wearing two.
Fauci also tried to convince us that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was not manipulated in a lab even though his inner circle had emailed him about “unusual features” of the virus that looked “potentially engineered.” And, of course, we had “fifteen days to stop the spread,” an evergreen concept that dragged on for two years. Lest readers fault us for forgetting, there was also the “gain of function” controversy, the focused protection battle, school closures, lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and vaccine misrepresentations.
These topics have received much public attention. The one pandemic topic that hasn’t, and is nonetheless important, is the maligned ivermectin. It’s time to set the record straight.
If you’ve followed the news closely over the last two years, you’ve probably heard a few things about ivermectin.
First, that it’s a veterinary medicine intended for horses and cows.
Second, that the FDA and other government regulatory agencies recommended against its use for COVID-19.
Third, that even the inventor and manufacturer of ivermectin, Merck & Co., came out against it.
Fourth, that one of the largest studies showing that ivermectin worked for COVID-19 was retracted for data fraud.
And, finally, that the largest and best study of ivermectin, the TOGETHER trial, showed that ivermectin didn’t work.
Let’s consider the evidence.
Ivermectin has a distinguished history, and it may have benefits comparable to those of penicillin. The anti-parasitic’s discovery led to a Nobel Prize and subsequent billions of safe administrations around the world, even among children and pregnant women. “Ivermectin is widely available worldwide, inexpensive, and one of the safest drugs in modern medicine.”
The FDA put out a special warning against using ivermectin for COVID-19. The FDA’s warning, which included language such as, “serious harm,” “hospitalized,” “dangerous,” “very dangerous,” “seizures,” “coma and even death,” and “highly toxic,” might suggest that the FDA was warning against pills laced with poison, not a drug the FDA had already approved as safe. Why did it become dangerous when used for COVID-19? The FDA didn’t say.
Because of the FDA’s rules, if it were to make any statement on ivermectin, it was obliged to attack it. The FDA prohibits the promotion of drugs for unapproved uses. Since fighting SARS-CoV-2 was an unapproved use of ivermectin, the FDA couldn’t have advocated use without obvious hypocrisy. Ivermectin’s discoverer, Merck & Co., had multiple reasons to disparage its own drug.
Merck, too, couldn’t have legally “promoted” ivermectin for COVID-19 without a full FDA approval, something that would have taken years and many millions of dollars. Plus, Merck doesn’t make much money from cheap, generic ivermectin but was hoping to find success with its new, expensive drug, Lagevrio (molnupiravir).
A large study of ivermectin for COVID-19 by Elgazzar et al. was withdrawn over charges of plagiarism and faked data. Many media reports seem fixated on this one dubious study, but it was one of many clinical studies. After the withdrawn studies have been removed from consideration, there are 15 trials that suggest that ivermectin doesn’t work for COVID-19 and 78 that do.
The TOGETHER trial received significant positive press. The New York Times quoted two experts who had seen the results. One stated, “There’s really no sign of any benefit [from ivermectin],” while the other said, “At some point it will become a waste of resources to continue studying an unpromising approach.”
While the Elgazzar paper was quickly dismissed, the TOGETHER trial was acclaimed. It shouldn’t have been. Researchers who have analyzed it have found 31 critical problems (impossible data; extreme conflicts of interest; blinding failure), 22 serious problems (results were delayed six months; conflicting data), and 21 major problems (multiple, conflicting randomization protocols) with it.
While the popular narrative is that the TOGETHER trial showed that ivermectin didn’t work for COVID-19, the actual results belie that conclusion: ivermectin was associated with a 12 percent lower risk of death, a 23 percent lower risk of mechanical ventilation, a 17 percent lower risk of hospitalization, and a 10 percent lower risk of extended ER observation or hospitalization. We have calculated that the probability that ivermectin helped the patients in the TOGETHER trial ranged from 26 percent for the median number of days to clinical recovery to 91 percent for preventing hospitalization. The TOGETHER trial’s results should be reported accurately.
Based on the clinical evidence from the 93 trials that ivermectin reduced mortality by an average of 51 percent, and on the estimated infection fatality rate of COVID-19, about 400 infected Americans aged 60-69 would need to be treated with ivermectin to statistically prevent one death in that group. The total cost of the ivermectin to prevent that one death: $40,000.
(Based on the GoodRx website, a generic prescription for ivermectin is priced at approximately $40. Roughly 2.5 prescriptions would be needed per person to receive the average dose of 150 mg per patient.)
How much is your life worth? We’re betting it’s worth far more than $40,000.
When the next pandemic strikes, by necessity we’ll rely on older drugs because newer ones require years of development. Ivermectin is a repurposed drug that helps, and could have helped so much more. It deserves recognition, not disparagement. What we really need, however, is a way to inoculate ourselves against the lies and misrepresentations of powerful public figures, organizations, and drug companies. Sadly, there are no such vaccines for that contagion.
-END-
The reason for this: lack of immunity after the shots
(zerohedge)
Flu Hospitalizations In England Outstrip COVID Admissions
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 02:45 AM
More people have been admitted to hospital with influenza than Covid for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic began, according to the latest figures by the UK Health Security Agency.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck details below, the rate of flu hospitalizations hit 6.8 per 100,000 people in the week leading up to December 11, while admissions for Covid patients hit 6.6 per 100,000.
Flu hospitalizations rose 40 percent in that period, up from 3.9 per 100,000 people as of the week ending December 4.
If these admissions continue to rise, they could be on track to surpass the figures recorded in the winter of 2017/18, which killed some 30,000 people, the Telegraph reports.
The over-85s and under-fives are seeing the highest rates of flu hospitalizations, with 23.1 per 100,000 people and 20.7 per 100,000 people, respectively.
While the admissions levels for both infectious diseases are rising as we head into winter, the rate of flu hospitalizations is climbing more steeply.
This surge hits as an already-overburdened NHS faces long waiting lists and a Strep A outbreak. In light of this, experts are calling for people to get a flu shot as soon as possible.
Dr Conall Watson, Consultant Epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), explains: “The flu vaccine offers the best protection against severe illness and it’s not too late for everyone eligible to get it. Uptake is particularly low in those aged 2 and 3 so if your child is eligible please take up the offer.”
END
FDA finally has come out and claims that the COVID 19 vaccine is linked to blood clotting. We have highlighted this to you for over two years
(FDA//Stieber)
Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Linked to Blood Clotting: FDA
A health care worker prepares Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine doses in Portland, Ore., in a file photograph. (Nathan Howard/Getty Images)
0:007:261
Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine has been linked to blood clotting in older individuals, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
FDA researchers, crunching data from a database of elderly persons in the United States, found that pulmonary embolism—blood clotting in the lungs—met the initial threshold for a statistical signal and continued meeting the criteria after a more in-depth evaluation.
Three other outcomes of interest—a lack of oxygen to the heart, a blood platelet disorder called immune thrombocytopenia, and another type of clotting called intravascular coagulation—initially raised red flags, researchers said. More in-depth evaluations, such as comparisons with populations who received influenza vaccines, showed those three as no longer meeting the statistical threshold for a signal.
Researchers looked at data covering 17.4 million elderly Americans who received a total of 34.6 million vaccine doses between Dec. 10, 2020, and Jan. 16, 2022.
The FDA said it was not taking any action on the results because they do not prove the vaccines cause any of the four outcomes, and because the findings “are still under investigation and require more robust study.”
Dr. Peter McCullough, chief medical adviser for the Truth for Health Foundation, told The Epoch Times via email that the new paper “corroborates the concerns of doctors that the large uptick in blood clots, progression of atherosclerotic heart disease, and blood disorders is independently associated with COVID-19 vaccination.”
Pfizer did not respond to a request for comment.A pedestrian walks by Pfizer’s New York City headquarters in a file photograph. (Jeenah Moon/Getty Images)
How the Research Was Done
FDA researchers, with assistance from researchers with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), analyzed data from the CMS database. They included Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries aged 65 or older who received a vaccine within the timeframe, were enrolled when they were vaccinated, and were enrolled for a “clean window” of time prior to vaccination. The window was 183 days or 365 days, depending on the outcome.
About 25 million people receive the Medicare Fee-for-Service, but only about 17 million were vaccinated during the period of time studied.
Researchers used probability testing to detect an increased risk of one or more of 14 outcomes following vaccination. The goal was to see whether vaccination may increase the risk of adverse outcomes, such as pulmonary embolism, or blood clotting in the lungs. If an outcome met a certain statistical threshold, that meant it could increase the risk.
The initial results of the safety monitoring detected an increased risk of four events, the FDA announced on July 12, 2021. They were the same four outlined in the new paper, which is the first update the agency has given on the matter since its announcement.
As of Jan. 15, 2022, 9,065 cases of a lack of oxygen to the heart—known as acute myocardial infarction—were detected, researchers revealed in the new study. As of the same date, 6,346 cases of pulmonary embolism, 1,064 cases of immune thrombocytopenia, and 263 cases of the coagulation were detected.One of the tables from the new paper.
The primary analysis showed a safety signal for all four outcomes. Researchers tried adjusting the numbers by using different variables. For instance, at one point they adjusted for the variation of background rates, or the rates of each outcome in the general population prior to the pandemic. After certain adjustments—not all—the myocardial infarction, immune thrombocytopenia, and intravascular coagulation ceased being statistically significant.
Pulmonary embolism, though, continued to be statistically significant, the researchers said. Pulmonary embolism is a serious condition that can lead to death.
Limitations of the study included possible false signals and possible missed signals due to factors such as parameters being specified wrongly.
The conditions that didn’t trigger a signal included stroke, heart inflammation, and appendicitis.
The signals were detected only after Pfizer vaccination. Analyses for signals after receipt of the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines did not show any concerns.
Moderna and Johnson & Johnson did not respond to requests for comment.
Side Effects
All three vaccines have been linked to a number of side effects. Heart inflammation is causally linked to the Moderna and Pfizer shots, experts around the world have confirmed, while Johnson & Johnson’s has been associated with blood clots.
Other conditions, such as pulmonary embolism, have been reported to authorities and described in studies, though some papers have found no increase in risk following vaccination.
Approximately 4,214 reports of post-vaccination pulmonary embolism, including 1,886 reports following receipt of Pfizer’s vaccine, have been reported to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System as of Dec. 9.
As of the same date, 1,434 reports of post-vaccination myocardial infarction, including 736 following receipt of Pfizer’s vaccine; 469 reports of post-vaccination immune thrombocytopenia, including 234 following receipt of Pfizer’s vaccine; and 78 reports of post-vaccination intravascular coagulation, including 42 after receipt of Pfizer’s vaccine, have been reported.
Reports to the system can be made by anybody, but most are lodged by health care workers, studies show. The number of reports are an undercount, according to studies.
The new study states that the FDA “strongly believes the potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the potential risks of COVID-19 infection.” No evidence was cited in support of the belief.
The FDA is set to meet with its vaccine advisory panel in January 2023 about the future of COVID-19 vaccines, as the vaccines have been performing much worse against Omicron and its subvariants.
McCullough told The Epoch Times: “A shortcoming of the CMS surveillance system is that it did not capture prior and subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection which accentuate the cumulative risk of COVID-19 vaccination. Given the large number of individuals who have been vaccinated, the population attributable fraction of medical problems ascribed to the vaccines is enormous. I have concerns over the future burden to the healthcare system as a consequence of mass indiscriminate COVID-19 vaccination.”
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Twitter suppressed early COVID 19 treatment information and vaccine safety
(Spence/EpochTimes)
Twitter Suppressed Early COVID-19 Treatment Information And Vaccine Safety Concerns: Cardiologist
Further, thanks to the Twitter Files—a collection of internal emails and communications made public by Musk—the cardiologist said there’s proof that government agencies were working against him (McCullough) personally.
“I didn’t violate any of Twitter’s rules,” McCullough stated. “And what we’re learning is that secret emails between government agencies and Twitter were working to, in a sense, shadow-ban me, censor me, and inhibit my ability to exercise my rights to free speech and disseminate scientific information.”Dr. Peter McCullough in New York on Dec. 24, 2021. (Jack Wang/The Epoch Times)
McCullough said Musk’s takeover of Twitter is a “welcome change,” especially for healthcare professionals like himself.
“Twitter had become an incredibly biased and censored platform, where the public knew they weren’t getting a fair, balanced set of information on a whole variety of developments—including the early treatment of SARS-COV2 infection and a balanced view of safety and efficacy of the vaccines,” McCullough claimed.
The cardiologist further claimed that he was censored and finally suspended for sharing scientific “abstracts and manuscripts,” which didn’t fit the accepted political view. Plus, McCullough remarked, he wasn’t the only doctor targeted.
Musk lifted the suspensions of McCullough and mRNA vaccine technology contributor Dr. Robert Malone—suspended from Twitter in 2021 after criticizing the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines—after completing his Twitter purchase.
Social Media and Censorship
According to McCullough, when a social media company has a COVID-19 warning or labels a post “misinformation,” that’s a sign of government censorship and control.
“Facebook, Instagram, and the other platforms. … Anytime a message is posted, and it says, ‘See the COVID information center,’ or it labels it ‘COVID misinformation,’ that actually indicates that there’s government interference. There’s government censorship going on,” McCullough asserted.
He added that when a user witnesses the above, they need to call out that platform. Moreover, McCullough believes there needs to be a “complete overhaul” of social media leadership and a “cleansing” of all forms of censorship on social media sites.Facebook, Google, and Twitter logos are seen in this combination photo. (Reuters)
He said explicitly regarding healthcare that a past U.S. Supreme Court ruling guaranteed physicians free speech and medical authority, and social media platforms are violating that ruling.
“Physicians, including myself, our rights to free speech were guaranteed in a Supreme Court ruling. We have medical authority, and the public is looking to our analyses and our guidance through the rest of this pandemic.”
Drug and Vaccine Lies
Regarding the safety of vaccines and the pushback he received when he voiced his concerns, McCullough stated, “There is no drug or vaccine that is free of side effects. There’s no drug or vaccine that’s perfectly effective.
“So, when Americans were seeing advertisements that said ‘safe and effective,’ of course, immediately, we were jumping and making the case based on the peer-reviewed literature that that’s not correct.”
McCullough further noted that he and author John Leake have released a book called “The Courage to Face COVID-19″—detailing the true story of the “intentional suppression of early treatment [of COVID-19] by what we call the biopharmaceutical complex.”
“neutralization of BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, & XBB.1 by sera from vaccinees and infected persons was markedly impaired; Titers against BQ & XBB subvariants were lower by 13-81-fold & 66-155-fold, respectively
It is clear that there is original antigenic sin at play (immune fixation or imprinting to the first prime or exposure), viral immune escape, and thus there will be antibody-dependent enhancement of infection and disease.Once again, if you mass vaccinate across all age-groups into a pandemic with elevated infectious pressure (circulating virus), using a sub-optimal non-sterilizing non-neutralizing vaccine, then you will place the target antigen under pressure (making it uncomfortable) but will not stop infection, replication, or transmission. As a result, the antigen-specific vaccine induced antibodies will bind to the antigen (epitopes) but will not bind optimally and will not neutralize, driving natural selection pressure which will function to ‘select’ for the most infectious ‘fittest’ sub-variants that will become enriched in the environment and become the new ‘dominant’ sub-variant clade. This is what happened as an example with omicron BA 4 and BA 5 and is happening now again with BQ.1.1 and XBB etc. This study is showing you just this.
I know you are fed up just like me of the same story over and over that the sub-variants and in this case BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 are near completely resistant to the COVID gene injection vaccinal antibodies. I know, I am fed up. The COVID injection has failed complete and anyone taking a shot today including the booster needs their minds checked for sanity!But I have to keep documenting the science so lawyers globally and scientists globally can take these malevolent Pfizer and Moderna CEOs and CDC and NIH and FDA and Health Canada and PHAC and SAGE etc. officials into court rooms and hopefully jail them in time for this corruption and nefarious malfeasant action, pushing out ineffective and harmful gene injections. That they know do not work, did not work, and will not work. Massively rapid waning immunity with clear rapid negative effectiveness. Even pushing boosters on children when they have statistical zero risk of severe outcome or death from COVID and the injection has failed and is deadly.So here goes, and I include only the key things to focus on as you add this CELL paper to your library.Overall, the findings show that the existing circulating subvariants (driven by the mass vaccination in the midst of elevated infectious pressure) reveal no vulnerability (hardly) to neutralization by the sera from vaccinated persons and this is whether they were infected before or not. This is devastating. This included those who were boosted with the new bivalent booster.Further highlights:‘Highlights•BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 are the most resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants to date•Serum neutralization was markedly reduced, including with the bivalent booster•All clinical monoclonal antibodies were rendered inactive against these variants•The ACE2 affinity of these variants were similar to their parental strains’‘The BQ and XBB subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron are now rapidly expanding, possibly due to altered antibody evasion properties deriving from their additional spike mutations.…neutralization of BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 by sera from vaccinees and infected persons was markedly impaired, including sera from individuals boosted with a WA1/BA.5 bivalent mRNA vaccine (this means that the new bivalent booster has failed, it is dead on arrival; do not take it).…Titers against BQ and XBB subvariants were lower by 13-81-fold and 66-155-fold, respectively, far beyond what had been observed to date.…Monoclonal antibodies capable of neutralizing the original Omicron variant were largely inactive against these new subvariants, and the responsible individual spike mutations were identified.…These subvariants were found to have similar ACE2-binding affinities as their predecessors.…findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies.’The third embedded figure really shows that regardless of the number of shots and even with the new bivalent booster, the antibody neutralization response is disastrous. Failed!There are serious catastrophic failures too by the monoclonal antibodies:‘Lastly, …the spikes of BQ and XBB subvariants have similar binding affinities to hACE2 as the spikes of their predecessors (Figure 5), suggesting that the recently observed growth advantage for these novel subvariants is likely due to some other factors. Foremost may be their extreme antibody evasion properties, especially considering the extensive herd immunity built up in the population over the last three years from infections and vaccinations. BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 subvariants exhibit far greater antibody resistance than earlier variants, and they may fuel yet another surge of COVID-19 infections.’‘In fact, combining these results with our prior findings on the serum neutralization of select sarbecoviruses27, there are indications that XBB and XBB.1 are now antigenically more distant than SARS-CoV or some sarbecoviruses in animals (Figure S3). Therefore, it is alarming that these newly emerged subvariants could further compromise the efficacy of current COVID-19 vaccines and result in a surge of breakthrough infections, as well as re-infections.’These results by Wang et al. matches the findings by Kurhude et al. I prior published in substack:Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter
I have adjusted the Annual Membership fee: I have reduced the yearly membership fee to $39.99 per year (for those who chose to subscribe with some support yet it can be free as it has always been with no restrictions to comment etc.), which is $3.30 per month and about $0.83 per week and thus $0.11 per day; I am very very grateful for your loyalty and d… Read more
Sadly, a newborn baby died shortly after receiving a vaccinated blood transfusion. Despite the parents arranging a directed donation, the hospital claimed they were ‘unable to locate’ the unvaccinated blood and without parental consent doctors gave the baby blood from the hospital’s vaccinated stockpile.
The baby, Alex, was born with a congenital heart defect and needed surgery. A close friend of the family recently passed away from a heart attack shortly after receiving her COVID-19 vaccine. This prompted the family to search for unvaccinated blood – which they found from a member of their local church.
After going through the proper protocols of directed donations to ensure Alex had unvaccinated blood, the hospital claimed they were unable to locate the donated blood. They used blood from the hospital’s supply – without the proper consent.
The day after the transfusion, Alex developed a large blood clot in his knee. He was put on the highest dose of blood thinners. Unfortunately, the blood thinners were unsuccessful and the clot traveled to his heart resulting in his death.
To make things even worse the parents are accusing the hospital, Sacred Heart’s Children’s Hospital in Spokane, Washington, of deleting records.
Is there an autopsy? Would we learn why he died? Would we be told vaccine status? Why the silence? Why nothing in media to inform the public? I say unless we are told more, it was the vaccine!
‘German data analyst Tom Lausen held a conference on Monday in the Bundestag to discuss the massive rise in people who died “suddenly and unexpectedly” after the Covid vaccine rollout.Only one mainstream journalist was present during the press conference.’“It was found that in 2021 not only were 2,487,526 patients with vaccination side effects seen by the doctor, but that there were also drastic changes in clinical pictures and deaths since the start of the corona vaccination.”The following diagnostic keys were evaluated in order to analyze the rise in sudden deaths:R96.0 Sudden deathR96.1 Death occurring within less than 24 hours of onset of symptoms, unless otherwise statedR98 Death without others presentR99 Other imprecise or unspecified causes of deathI46.1 Sudden cardiac deathThe team of analysts demanded that:Immediate suspension of vaccination with the corona vaccines until it can be ruled out that the massive increase in deaths is due to the vaccinationAutopsies on all those who died suddenly and unexpectedly to determine where they came from massive increase comingMandatory recording of the vaccination status of the corona vaccinations and the used vaccine in all deceased and regular publication of this dataImmediate evaluation of the KB data by the PEI and RKI and information of the population and doctors about the increase in diseasesLinking of the KBV data with the vaccination data by PEI and RKI and publicationThe German PDF data is available to download here.
peak actuarial body says; an extra 15,400 people died in first eight months of the year, according to new analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS); one-third of those have no link to COVID
This is a horrible set of polices and actions, somehow the illegal persons crossing into the US get preference over blacks; why? how? is it because blacks leaving the democratic party plantation?DR. PAUL ALEXANDER DEC 17 SAVE▷ LISTEN Is this America? I have seen many times with my own eyes how illegals are given preference over black Americans. Over White Americans. I have even seen it in NY hospitals. Openly
Dr. Naomi Wolf of Daily Clout is prescient as usual, raising flags for us, issuing a clarion call! Her work is in defense of women & the unborn as to the catastrophic outcomes from the gene injection
I like Stew, he is different, brave, smart, controversial, America loving, flag loving, constitution loving, law and order, military and police loving, all things I love, America FIRST! So I support!DR. PAUL ALEXANDERDEC 16 SAVE▷ LISTEN Does not matter what you think! He gots some oranges that are larger than church bells only matched at this time by the church bell seeds Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta walks with along with McCullough .SOURCE
The current unknowns regarding ‘vaccinated blood’ are being compared with the ‘Russian roulette’ risks of HIV-tainted blood that was used for transfusions in the 1980s. And this 4-month-old has just set off a media firestorm.
ABOUT DR. MERCOLA: Dr. Joseph Mercola is the founder of Mercola.com. An osteopathic physician, best-selling author and recipient of multiple awards in the field of natural health, his primary vision is to change the modern health paradigm by providing people with a valuable resource to help them take control of their health. His latest book “The Truth About COVID-19” was an instant best-seller and the #1 book sold on Amazon.
Good Morning! I hope everyone had a great weekend.
Let’s talk about Grant Wahl. The sports reporter who died suddenly of a ruptured aortic aneurysm while covering the World Cup in Qatar. He was 49 years old and reportedly in good health. He was vaccinated and boosted.
First, let’s understand what an aortic aneurysm is. According to the CDC:
An aortic aneurysm is a balloon-like bulge in the aorta, the large artery that carries blood from the heart through the chest and torso.
In Wahl’s case, the aneurysm ruptured completely causing internal bleeding which resulted in his death. This type of aneurysm is extremely rare with most cases being in men around 70 years old. The CDC estimates around 9,904 deaths per year in the United States.
Days before his sudden death Wahl was given antibiotics in Qatar for suspected bronchitis. The illness became worse. He wrote on his Substack:
My body finally broke down on me. Three weeks of little sleep, high stress and lots of work can do that to you. What had been a cold over the last 10 days turned into something more severe on the night of the USA-Netherlands game, and I could feel my upper chest take on a new level of pressure and discomfort.
Wahl’s body was brought back to New York City where he had an autopsy done by the New York City medical examiner’s office. Grant’s wife, Dr. Celine Gounder, who was a member of Biden’s COVID-19 Advisory Board and CBS and CNN medical contributor, said, “His death was unrelated to COVID, His death was unrelated to vaccination status. There was nothing nefarious about his death.”
This is where I start to take issue. Grant was a reportedly healthy man in his late 40s. To immediately say the vaccine had nothing to do with his death – when there are doctors, studies and actual evidence pointing to this side effect – is not in the interest of public health. In another coincidence it just so happens his wife, Dr. Gounder, is a huge vaccine advocate. Shouldn’t we actually see if, perhaps, this death or the 1000s (maybe more) just like it are caused by the vaccine? How is it ‘science’ to immediately dismiss something?
Before Wahl’s death, Dr. Ryan Cole appeared on the Dr. Drew show to break down the connection between the mRNA spike protein in the vaccine and ruptured aortas. He explained how spike proteins have been found in the aorta:
This is something that is unusual. Usually, you’ll see this in genetic conditions where the aorta ruptures. (showing a slide on how the spike protein expresses in the aorta) That’s spike protein literally causing the lymphocytes to chew a hole in the aorta. This is the biggest blood vessel in your body, coming off your heart. When that ruptures, you’re gone in minutes.
There’s also giant cell arteritis, inflammation of the lining of your arteries, which is a side effect of mRNA vaccines and a risk factor for thoracic aortic aneurysms.
END
Here we have a report of a popliteal aneurysm (popliteal artery supplies blood to the knee, thigh and calf).
And here we have evidence of a five-year-old who developed a coronary aneurysm after receiving his first Pfizer dose.
Although Pfizer lists vascular pseudoaneurysm thrombosis in their analysis of post-authorization Adverse Event Reports. This type of aneurysm damages blood vessel walls, they do not weaken and bulge like in a true aneurysm.
VACCINE IMPACT
Tucker Carlson Repeats Old News: The CIA Orchestrated the Assassination of JFK
December 17, 2022 1:26 pm
Apparently somebody in the Biden Administration decided it was time to insert the John F. Kennedy assassination back into the news cycle this week. They “released” thousands of documents on the event that apparently just confirmed the U.S. Government’s official position on the matter: Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. The larger news story that made the rounds in the Alternative Media came from Tucker Carlson of Fox News who stated: “Today we spoke to someone who had access to the still-hidden JFK files, and is deeply familiar with their contents. We asked this person directly: did the CIA have a hand in the murder of John F. Kennedy? Here’s the reply: ‘The answer is yes. I believe they were involved.'” This was treated as “breaking news” in the Alternative Media this week as if this had never been stated in the corporate media before. But the fact is that this is very old news, and pretty much every major corporate news organization has published something similar to this for decades now. And of course, those of us in the Alternative Media have covered this topic in depth for many years now. In 2020, we published an interview with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on Ron Paul’s Liberty Report show, where Kennedy said not only did the CIA kill his uncle, but also his father. If you want to go beyond what the controlled opposition corporate media is reporting about this, and understand the much larger picture of how the CIA and our government operates, the best film I have seen on this topic is Francis Richard Conolly’s epic 2014 film, JFK to 9/11: Everything Is a Rich Man’s Trick. It has an 8.6 out of 10 rating on IMDB.com, and as far as I know it was only self-published on YouTube, as no production company or studio would dare to touch the subjects covered in this film. There are still several copies on YouTube. It is almost 3.5 hours long, and may take you a few days to watch, but it is well worth it. I have watched it twice over the years.
80X More Deaths Following COVID-19 Shots than Influenza Vaccines 2020 through 2022
December 18, 2022 8:48 pm
An examination of the U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) reveals that since the Fall of 2020 through today, people injected with COVID-19 shots die 80 times more frequently following those shots, than people who die after being injected with the flu shots. Also, people receiving a COVID-19 shot suffer side effects 40 times more frequently than people who are injected with flu shots.
Judicial Watch: FDA Records Show Significant Number of mRNA Test Rats Born with Skeletal Deformations
December 18, 2022 9:05 pm
Judicial Watch announced today that it received 699 pages of records from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) regarding data Moderna submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, which indicate a “statistically significant” number of rats were born with skeletal deformations after their mothers were injected with the vaccine. The documents also reveal Moderna elected not to conduct a number of standard pharmacological studies on the laboratory test animals.
‘Twitter Files 6’ Shows ‘Deep State’ Went Way Deeper Than Just FBI-Twitter CollusionThe latest episode of Twitter’s internal files on content crackdowns paints a picture of a censorship machine that not only worked hand-in-glove with the FBI but also received content-related flags and action requests from a tangled web of state agencies, private contractors, and government-affiliated NGOs, shedding new light on the depths of the “deep state.”READ MORE
Let’s have a World Cup update with the same level of detail as much market data analysis: a Latin American team won, and a European team lost.
Let’s have an update with the same level of detail as better market analysis: Argentina 3, Croatia 0. Even better, let’s show who scored, and when: Messi – 34; Alvarez – 39, 69. We can even add the number of yellow and red cardsinto 2024′ -CIO
Goldman Sachs layoffs a ‘sign of pain’ in banking industry -CIO
Goldman Sachs to cut thousands of jobs -source
Do you understand football now? Do you know who will win France-Morocco or, most likely, Argentina-France? You don’t? That analysis lacks something? I am shocked, shocked! After reading all that you still can’t predict football results or manage a football team?!
And so to predicting US CPI and managed money, where the Bulls won 3-0 against the Bears after headline inflation rose just 0.1% m-o-m vs. 0.3% expected, taking the y-o-y rate down from 7.7% to 7.1%, and core CPI rose only 0.2% m-o-m vs. 0.3% expected, taking the y-o-y rate down from 6.3% to 6.0%.Do you understand inflation now? Do you know where it will be in 2023 and 2024? Of course you think you do: everyone in markets is an armchair manager.
I spoke about the structural, long-term upside risks to inflation yesterday, so won’t repeat them here, but let’s do a slightly better ‘play-by-play’ CPI analysis before looking at the next big match – Morocco-France, or the Fed meeting, which kick off at the same time.
First, a vast amount of the improvement in US inflation across different sectors was about energy, in different guises. Saying CPI has peaked on that basis alone is like saying, “If we score one more than them, we win” at elite managerial level in football. True, but not very helpful. Indeed, do you understand energy now, post-CPI?
On that front, the US officially announced their nuclear fusion discovery yesterday, saying it would transform *US* industry and *US* national security (yes, this is geopolitical and geoeconomic); then adding we are decades away from commercial application; and the lasers used to generate fusion power delivered ~2 megajoules of energy to create ~3 megajoules… but it took ~300 megajoules to power the lasers(!) That’s akin to feeling morally superior driving an EV if it’s powered by a battery made of minerals dug up by child labour and charged with electricity produced by burning coal; or basing energy grids on fluctuating power sources such as wind and wave when they need stable power to match supply and demand; or relying on solar power in countries with peak energy loads in the depths of winter.
Meanwhile, Brent went up 3.5% and US natural gas soared 6.5%. Lots of factors play into energy on the upside (like potential OPEC+ production cuts, having to refill the US SPR, or Dutch warnings of LNG shortages if they don’t build more terminals) and the downside (like ‘green’ Germany preparing another energy subsidy of up to EUR2,000 per household for this winter for families using heating oil, coal, or wood pellets). However, part of the big move up yesterday might be due to markets thinking the US inflation print was so low, due to energy, that the Fed is about to pivot, ironically pushing energy back up again.
Second, in terms of housing and OER’s (owners’ equivalent rent), rental indicators are starting to turn over, which will impact CPI after a lag. Unless financial markets pivot so much that the housing market takes off again as yields tumble, in which case rents and OER will go back up.
Third, food prices were up 0.6% m-o-m and 10.5% y-o-y, and while some categories fell, others rose. That is before we see the good news in some places (i.e., bumper crops) and the bad news in others (i.e., the potential lagged impact of high fertilizer prices).
Fourth, we are seeing deflation in some goods, particularly the used car market, as excess inventories are worked off – that’s how bull-whip effects work. Yet at the same time, the latest PPI report and the NFIB survey yesterday both showed pipeline/wholesale prices continue to rise – that’s also how bull-whip effects work: they aren’t a simple see-saw.
Fifth, services inflation, which rose 0.4% m-o-m, the smallest increase since July, was hugely flattered by November seeing the BLS adjust healthcare costs by -4.3% m-o-m, as it also did in October by -4.0%. That took y-o-y healthcare inflation down from 28% in September to ‘just‘ 13.5%. We have another 10 months of this adjustment process to look forward to, and to look through; because not only is real healthcare inflation not falling like that, but the Fed’s core PCE deflator measures it very differently.
Indeed, summing this all up, the Fed has made it abundantly clear it won’t be fooled by Arthur Burns’ “core inflation” arguments, which are the equivalent of lucky 1-0 wins and the odd undeserved penalty in football. It wants to see real, clear, sustained progress, i.e., a string of good 2-0 wins, in the inflation performance before it changes strategy and tactics. Powell in particular has also made it clear to those who can read the game that he wants to pop inflationary financial bubbles, even at the risk of a real economy recession, even if that is not his actual goal.
The market, for its part, is only interested in inflationary financial bubbles. It is hence behaving the way that fans of struggling football teams do: cheering the opposition in the hope that the worse things get, the sooner their club will fire the manager, and/or see new investors step in and transform things with multi-billion dollar investments. “If we lose the next four games, we will see Messi wearing our shirt!” they proudly say, drawing up their own Xmas wish-lists of Galacticos.
Yet this won’t sit well with the current Gaffer. The more the market does what it did yesterday — push US stocks up; push US bond yields down, and expectations for the terminal Fed Funds rate, while pricing for 150bp of Fed cuts by mid-2024; push the US dollar down; and push commodities like energy up– the less willing and able Powell will be to give them what they are demanding.
Superficial reading of stats and booing your own team only works if there is a Saudi investor waiting in the wings with a new world class manager and bags of cash for Carlos Kick-a-balls. If there isn’t, you are just celebrating your own eventual relegation or elimination on a cold, dark, wet December Tuesday evening, which is what most real football is about. The prawn-sandwich eating market glamour-set shouting “Go team!” and “Yay sports!” in Qatari stadium corporate hospitality boxes understand little about that; and even the ‘pro-worker’ Fed doves from the same social circle, who gain a stronger voting bloc in 2024, also fail to understand the Saudis will be actively disinvesting in both oil and all things US if too early a rates pivot is made.
So, will we see offensive or defensive play from Powell and the Fed today? Will the updated dot plot match the multiple own-goals that markets are betting on, or will we see a flat back four and a packed midfield? The market would find anything other than what Sir Alan Sugar once called silly football money ‘prune juice’ both offensive and defensive. But, as they chant on the UK terraces, “You don’t know what you’re doing! You don’t know what you’re doing!”
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
China is set to increase gas consumption and thus expect future price rises
SLAV/OilPrice.com
The Global Gas Crunch Is Set To Worsen As China Reopens
China’s natural gas imports are set for a 7-percent rise next year as the country reopens after Covid lockdowns, which could aggravate an already tight supply situation globally.
The 7-percent import increase forecast was made by state-owned energy major CNOOC, which said, as quoted by Bloomberg, that it was already looking for LNG cargoes for next year.
The report notes that gas inventories at ports in the northern part of the country are depleting at a faster rate than usual because the weather is colder, pushing consumption higher, and this will, too, have an effect on future demand for imports.
What’s more, pipeline supply of natural gas from Central Asia is in decline, which means China will need to rely more on LNG in its gas import mix to make up the difference. And this means more intense competition for a limited number of cargoes between Asia and Europe next year as well.
This year, Chinese gas demand has been trending lower for most of the year, with imports declining consistently over the first ten months of the year, per a report by Energy Intelligence. LNG imports were down by a sizeable 21.6 percent over the ten-month period, reflecting the effects of lockdowns and other restrictions under the country’s zero-Covid policy.
Yet now this policy is being reversed, mass mandatory testing is being dropped and analysts expect a rebound in economic activity before too long. This will drive higher demand for energy and contribute to higher prices due to the tight supply situation in both oil and gas.
This reversal of Beijing’s Covid policy surprised many, who expected tepid demand for energy to continue in one of the world’s largest consumers. If activity rebounds fast, securing sufficient gas supply for the next heating season will likely become a major problem for most importers.
END
as the price cap comes into effect: oil exports from the key Russian port is cut in half
(zerohedge)
Oil Exports From Key Russian Port Cut In Half As Price Cap Kicks In
SATURDAY, DEC 17, 2022 – 07:35 AM
The market may have been too quick to dismiss the impact of European oil price cap on Russian oil.
Assuming that the latest G-7 attempt to limit Russian oil revenues were one big nothingburger – after all, the US itself admitted that the goal of the price cap was not so much to cripple Putin’s Treasury as to maintain a more stable flow of oil – the market quickly ignored the potential of lower Russian output as it continued to sell oil into year end amid fears there won’t be enough demand to offset stable supply.
But in yet another case of poetic justice-cum-Murphy’s law, Europe’s exercise in virtue signalling optics is about to backfire and achieve precisely what it was meant to achieve, if only for virtuous public consumption.
According to Bloomberg, there are signs that oil tanker companies are avoiding sending their ships to collect crude from a key Russian port in Asia following the G-7 sanctions targeting Moscow’s petroleum revenues. As has been duly documented here previously, since Dec. 5, buyers of Russian oil have only been allowed to access industry standard insurance and an array of trade-critical services if they pay $60 a barrel or less. But shipments of the key ESPO grade from the Asian port of Kozmino are about $10 above that, meaning they need to make alternative arrangements.
Since the cap began, ESPO (which stands for Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean, the initials of a pipeline that takes the oil from east Siberia to the Pacific) has seen loadings cut in half from a month earlier, tanker tracking compiled by Bloomberg show. By contrast Urals, a much larger grade exported from western Russia, is flowing freely to customers in Asia — aided by the fact it fell far below the $60 threshold a few weeks before it was introduced.
However, amid the latest sanctions which set the $60 price cutoff, tankers are shying away from the Asian grade, and in the 10 days since the measures began, 4.4 million barrels have been loaded onto tankers at Kozmino, Bloomberg calculates. In the same period a month earlier, there were 8.8 million barrels loaded.
While it is too soon to say if the observed drop in ESPO flows reflects something structural, weather conditions haven’t been particularly bad and there doesn’t appear to be many candidate ships in place to collect cargoes in the coming few weeks. That said, tanker tracking data is always volatile, depending on the timings of loadings, and the comings and goings of individual tankers.
Shipbrokers and traders contacted by Bloomberg also said that said there are signs that ESPO sellers are struggling to secure tankers for cargoes purchased at more than $60 a barrel. At least two large and well-known shipowners, China Cosco Shipping Corp. and Greece-based Avin International Ltd. have stepped back from moving ESPO crude since Dec. 5, according to shipbrokers. Emails sent to both companies weren’t answered.
Their absence has taken at least five tankers out of the regular pool of ships that move the grade, they said. That leaves charterers to work with smaller independent owners who’re still willing to handle the trade. If charterers continue to face headwinds with the booking of tankers, flows could be impeded, they said. ESPO and Sokol, another grade that’s exported from eastern Russia, currently trade above the $60 a barrel threshold that gives access to insurance and G-7 services.
With Urals grade Russian oil trading well below the price cap, and last fetching about $45/bbl, shipbrokers said tanker bookings for Russia’s flagship crude from western ports are proceeding more normally. Tanker tracking also suggests no obvious disruption to flows of the grade.
Of course, all of this is just a snapshot in time: once oil prices spike, as they will after the year-end selling is over, it is virtually assured that all Russian oil grades will be priced above $60, even with the deep discount to spot. At that point, traders will be watching closely to see if Russian crude exports can be maintained and how Moscow will respond if supplies do get disrupted.
As noted previously, the irony behind all this is that the stability of Russian exports is crucial as the US and rest of G-7 work on ensuring security of global oil supplies ahead of the Northern hemisphere winter while simultaneously attempting to deprive the Kremlin of funding for its war in Ukraine. A sharp loss of output could backfire on the west if it boosts wider oil prices and reignites inflation. And while the price cap wasn’t really supposed to be a price cap, it just may end up being one with Russian oil exports suddenly cut off, sending all “non-Russian” oil prices explosively higher, and sparking a new energy crisis some time in early 2023.
As for Russian product just sitting there, about half the ESPO cargoes scheduled for loading in the rest of this month have yet to secure tankers, according to shipbrokers. That is slower than usual, and they attributing it to the smaller pool of willing tankers operated by a smaller number of owners. It’s possible that tankers which previously handled oil from sanctioned regimes such as Iran and Venezuela – the so-called dark fleet – would be booked, shipbrokers said.
END
LNG will continue to rise in use
(zerohedge)
LNG In Europe: Ready Or Not?
SUNDAY, DEC 18, 2022 – 07:35 AM
With the reliable supply of Russian gas to Europe a thing of the past since the eruption of war in Ukraine, many European countries have been scrambling to find alternative sources of energy. Although the EU has agreed a plan to reduce natural gas consumption this winter by 15 percent compared to the past five year average, gas is not going to be abandoned as a source of energy any time soon.
One of Europe’s answers to the crisis is the increase of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Circumventing the use of pipelines from the east, LNG terminals open up a wider variety of potential suppliers.
One of the main benefactors of this shift so far has been United States. In the first half of 2022, the U.S. became the world’s largest LNG supplier, with 71 percent of its exports going to the EU and the UK.
Germany, for example, which had developed a significant dependency on gas deliveries from Russia, has announced the construction of four LNG import terminals since the start of the war. As Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows in the infographic below, using Gas Infrastructure Europe data, these will be the first terminals in the country.
Where will the gas come from? In large part, Qatar.
The state-owned Qatar Energy announced at the end of November that a deal had been struck with German firms, representing a 15-year deal to buy 2m tonnes of liquid gas. Deliveries will start from 2026, with the gas being sold by Qatar to the U.S. company ConocoPhillips, before delivery to one of Germany’s by-then-constructed terminals.
While this may serve as a medium-term solution, the use of liquefied natural gas is controversial. The German Federal Environment Agency claims that increased use of LNG, especially compared to gas transported via pipeline, cannot be justified from a climate policy and energy efficiency perspective. Nevertheless, the agency states that an expansion of LNG infrastructure over the course of the transition to cleaner energy could contribute to improved supply security as well as more competition.
The recent crude price slump may not be indicative for what is to come in oil markets according to several investment bank analysts.
OPEC has not consistently produced more than 30 million bpd since 2015-2018.
Structural underinvestment in new oil supply may lead to structurally higher prices.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC revealed it had yet again failed to produce as much oil as it agreed to produce the last time it discussed output. And it wasn’t by a few thousand barrels per day, either. The shortfall was some 1.8 million barrels daily, but more importantly, that sort of undershooting of its own target has become a regular thing for the cartel. Meanwhile, the United States federal government needs to buy some oil for its strategic petroleum reserve after releasing close to 200 million barrels from it this year as a way of countering fuel price inflation. Yet U.S. drillers are not in a rush to boost production. On the contrary, it seems production growth has lost its place among these companies’ top priorities.
Of course, there are also the sanctions against Russia, which many expect will hurt the country’s oil production, and that may well happen, but it has not happened yet. In fact, the oil sanctions—in the form of a price cap on maritime exports and an embargo on exports to the EU—have had no effect on oil flows out of Russia. For now.
Investment banks expect higher oil prices, despite a recent slump prompted by expectations of an economic slowdown pretty much across the globe. The expectations, now beginning to seep into trader circles, too, are largely based on China’s reversal of its zero-Covid policy. But they also probably take into account the fact that oil remains an indispensable commodity. And the era of cheap oil may well be over for good.
“We remain constructive on oil prices driven by recovering demand (China reopening, aviation recovering) amid constrained supply due to low levels of investment, risks to Russia supply, the end of SPR releases, and slowdown of U.S. shale,” Morgan Stanley said this week in a note.
Yet the situation may be a lot more serious with regard to supply, as noted in a recent market commentary by TortoiseEcoFin’s President and Portfolio Manager, Matt Sallee.
“Global oil inventory is at the lowest level since 2004, the Department of Energy has released 200 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve this year, OPEC continues to struggle to produce at their stated quota and US producers are helping but can only do so much.”
This s a pretty succinct description of the global oil supply situation, but the picture is not one that would invoke positive emotions. It is one that is more likely to evoke concern, and with a good reason. Because there is little evidence that any of these trends will change meaningfully any time soon.
OPEC, for example, has zero motivation to try and boost production, Sallee noted in follow-up comments for Oilprice. It would only do so if it knows oil will remain over $100 per barrel for a longer period of time, but there is no way to be confident about this right now.
Then there are the purely physical constraints on OPEC production, as evidenced by the consistent failure of the group to hit its own—reduced—production targets. Most OPEC members have ambitious production growth plans, but they remain plans while actual production remains subdued for reasons such as natural depletion at mature fields and, ultimately, not enough investment.
As Sallee notes, OPEC has not consistently produced more than 30 million bpd since 2015-2018 when it did so deliberately in a bid to destroy U.S. shale and, to a great extent, succeeded, temporarily. And that’s because it neither wants to nor can it do so.
Underinvestment is turning into a thing in U.S. shale as well, at least from the perspective of the White House. According to the Biden administration, all U.S. producers need to do is spend more on additional production. According to the U.S. producers themselves, the long-term outlook for oil demand is too uncertain about investing in more production.
Then there is the issue of prime acreage, which several experts have been warning is running out. TortoiseEcoFin’s Sallee is among them:
“Best acreage has been drilled, the industry is struggling to attract labor and has limited sources of financing,” he told Oilprice.
According to him, U.S. oil production is unlikely to ever again record annual output increase rates of 1 million bpd or more, as it did in the recent past. A growth rate of 500,000 to 750,000 bpd is far more likely, he believes. And that’s not good news for consumers because demand, although targeted by the energy transition camp, is not going down soon.
The International Energy Agency, one of the most active members of the energy transition movement, in its latest Oil Market Report revised upwards its forecast for global oil demand next year because of an unexpected increase in consumption this year.
Chances are this is a sustainable trend in the absence of viable alternatives to oil products. And this means that demand and supply will be in a precarious balance in the future, constantly on the brink of a shortage or even deep in a shortage, should Big Oil’s pivot to low-carbon energy continue, as it requires they reduce their oil production to hit their net-zero goals. What all this means is that the era of cheap crude oil may well be over for good.
8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.
Peru
Protests continue in Peru as the “coup government” extends former leader Castillo’s jail term
(Wilkins/CommonDreams)
Over 20 Protest Deaths In Peru As ‘Coup’ Government Extends Castillo’s Jail Term
Peruvian human rights defenders said Friday that the death toll has risen to 21 in nationwide protests sparked by the ouster and jailing of leftist President Pedro Castillo, whose pretrial imprisonment term was extended to 18 months by the Andean country’s high court.
For the 10 straight day, Peruvians took to the streets of cities and towns across the country, denouncing what many are calling a “coup” against Castillo, while demanding his immediate release, the removal of unelected interim President Dina Boluarte, the dissolution of Congress, and new elections. Protesters defied bullets, batons, gas bombs, curfews, and a 30-day national state of emergency declared on Wednesday, a move that suspended the right to assemble and move freely about the country.Protesters set fire to tires to blockade roads in Arequipa, Peru. Image: CBC
Demonstrators blocked roads, leading to the deaths of six people in traffic accidents, according toThe Guardian. Peru’s El Commercioreports a 12-day-old baby being rushed to a hospital in Lima died due to roadblocks. Protesters also forced the closure of five airports, leaving travelers and tourists stranded in places including near the popular Machu Picchu complex.
In addition to the deaths, at least 426 people, including 216 security personnel, have been wounded in the capital Lima and other regions, the Ombudsman’s Office of Peru said.
Reutersreports eight people were killed Thursday as state security forces moved to suppress protests in the southern Andean city of Ayacucho, where demonstrators torched the local judiciary and prosecutor’s office. The city’s government blamed Boluarte and her defense and interior ministers for the deaths while demanding “an immediate cessation of the use of firearms… against our people.”
Citing a flight risk posed by Castillo, a judicial panel of Peru’s Supreme Court of Justice on Thursday ordered the deposed president held for 18 months while prosecutors investigate charges of rebellion and conspiracy. Prior to his removal, Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress and declare an emergency government in which he would rule by decree.
Castillo denies the charges. On Thursday, his Twitter account posted a handwritten note in which Castillo sounded the alarm over a meeting held the day before his removal at the Government Palace in Lima between Boluarte and U.S. Ambassador Lisa Kenna, a former longtime CIA agent appointed by former President Donald Trump.
The note alleges the meeting “was to give the order to take the troops out into the streets and massacre my defenseless people; and, incidentally, leave the way clear for mining exploitation, as in the case of Conga, Tía María, and others.”
Boluarte’s office said that Kenna has “reiterated her country’s full support for democratic institutions in Peru and for the actions of the constitutional government to stabilize the social situation.”
In addition to the United States, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Uruguay have recognized Boluarte’s government. On the other hand, leftist leaders of 10 regional nations met Wednesday in Havana, Cuba to “reject the political framework created by right-wing forces” against Castillo.
Earlier this week the leftist leaders of Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, and Mexico issued a joint statement expressing their “deep concern” over Castillo’s ouster and imprisonment.
Peru’s National Coordinator for Human Rights (CNDDHH) called for an immediate end to the use of force against protesters, blaming the country’s “highest political authorites” for the deaths.
Speaking at a Friday CNDDHH hearing, Rafael Goto, a pastor and former president of the National Evangelical Council, called for early elections and said that “there can be no ethical democracy based on murders.”
CNDDHH executive secretary Jennie Dador Tozzini claimed at least 147 cases of arbitrary detention, telling the hearing that “when our lawyers went to police stations, they were not allowed to pass.”
Press freedom advocates also condemned attacks on journalists. Zuliana Laines Otero, who heads Peru’s National Association of Journalists, said during the hearing there have been 69 such incidents during the protests.
“The freedom of journalists to report is fundamental in a democracy and even more so in a moment of political crisis like the one Peru is experiencing,” Human Rights Watch said in response to the arrests.
Dador emphasized that “the right of defense must be exercised from the moment the police arrest you, the democratic space is closing; we are on the way to authoritarianism.”
END
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0609 UP .0030
USA/ YEN 136.50 UP 0.270/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .25% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//
GBP/USA 1.2165 UP 0.0039
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 60.74 PTS OR 1.92%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 97.86 POINTS OR 0.56%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.21% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 97.86 PTS OR 0.56%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 60.74 PTS OR 1.922%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.21%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 289.43% OR 1.05%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1794.00
silver:$23.18
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 104.22 DOWN .12 POINTS from FRIDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN) AT 6.9795
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9854
TURKISH LIRA: 18.65 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.249
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 511IN basis points from FRIDAY at 3.592% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.648 UP 12 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 104.28 DOWN 0.05 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 40.54 PTS OR 0.55%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 54.96 POINTS OR 0.40%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 27.40PTS OR 0.43%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 38.00 OR 0.47%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 24.86 PTS OR 0.10%
WTI Oil price 74.74 12: EST
Brent Oil: 79.81 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 67.72/ ROUBLE DOWN 3 AND 7/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.199
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.517 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0604 UP .0024 OR 24 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2145 UP .0019 or 19 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.532% up 7 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 137.035 UP 0.821/YEN DOWN 82 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3658 DOWN 0.0031 (CDN dollar, UP 31 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 75.66
Brent OIL: 80.30
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 10 BASIS pts to 3.577%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS PTS to 3.623%
USA dollar index:104.33 UP .01 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.65
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 67.72 down 3 AND 07/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 162,92 PTS OR 0.49%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 159.13 PTS OR 1.42%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.34 DOWN 0.28 PTS (1.24)%
GLD: $166.32 DOWN .47 OR 0.28%
SLV/ $21.12 DOWN $0.25 OR 1.17%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
Bonds, Big-Tech, & Bullion Battered As Santa Claus Rally Begins Badly
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 04:01 PM
While some argue about whether the Santa Claus Rally is the week leading up to Xmas Day or the week after it, we note that the over the last 20 years the week before Xmas Day has seen positive returns 13 times (unch twice and negative just five times).
Over the last 20 years of following the Santa Claus rally proposition, the average return was only +0.385%.
A quick look at today’s post-OpEx performance suggests this Santa Claus rally is not off to a great start. The only macro data of note today was a slight pick up in German IFO business confidence, and a dismal US homebuilder sentiment survey, but as soon as the cash market opened, Nasdaq was dumped, Dow was bid a little. By the close, The Dow was the prettiest horse in the glue factory while Nasdaq and Small Caps were the biggest losers. The last 15 mins or so saw some lipstick put on the pig as 0DTEs took profits on a good trend day…
Retail ‘favorites’ are down for the 4th straight day back to 2-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Amazon tumbled to its lowest since March 2020 and the rest of the FANGMAN stocks are down hard since the FOMC (NVDA, AAPL, NFLX all down around 10%)…
Source: Bloomberg
TSLA shares ended the day down after spiking higher in the pre-market after Elon Musk polled his followers and found they wanted him out as CEO
“Most Shorted” stocks tumbled further today (down for the 5th straight day – biggest 5-day drop since Sept), now at their lowest (on the downside momentum) since Feb 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were uniformly sold today with yields up rising from around the opening of the US market to the EU close. Yields were up 7-9bps across the curve…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y yield spiked up to pre-CPI-plunge stops and stalled…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended basically unchanged on the day, hovering around the pre-CPI-plunge levels from last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Russia’s Ruble tumbled to its lowest since May this morning…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin slipped back to 3 week lows at $16500…
Source: Bloomberg
Some argued that broad crypto weakness reflected renewed fears over Binance (even though they picked up Voyager’s assets today)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold fell back below $1800…
Oil prices rallied on the day with WTI back up to $76…
Finally, as SpotGamma notes, last week registered the second highest level of call shorting since the week of March ’20. We think that traders will use rallies as opportunities to sell calls, which serves to slow upside momentum.
The largest takeaway on positioning for this increasingly illiquid week is that the 3800 Put Wall area is shaping up as major downside support into year end.
The Dec OPEX roll seemed to result in a concentration of puts at that strike, which is also the vicinity of the much-discussed 3835 JPM Call. This call should serve to support the market in the area just north of 3835, because dealers are long this call and therefore have positive gamma to hedge.
The net result is that if the market recaptures 3900 to the upside (or under 3700), the JPM strike becomes less important to market movement, particularly as we move past this week.
EARLY MORNING TRADING//FOMC
EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING
ii) USA DATA
Homebuilder Sentiment Slumps To Decade Lows, Longest Losing Streak On Record
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 10:12 AM
It appears homebuilders are really starting to wake up to what Fed Chair Powell has been preaching as NAHB sentiment tumbled to the lowest level since June 2012 excluding the onset of the Covid-19 lockdowns.
The headline index dropped 2 points to 31 (after being expected to rise to 34)… but still a very long way to fall to match the utter disdain Americans have for buying homes right now…
The headline sentiment index is down 12 straight months, which represents the longest losing streak on record.
“NAHB is expecting weaker housing conditions to persist in 2023,” Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, said in a statement.
“We forecast a recovery coming in 2024, given the existing nationwide housing deficit of 1.5 million units and future, lower mortgage rates anticipated with the Fed easing monetary policy in 2024.”
Under the hood, the group’s measure of present sales decreased, matching the lowest level since mid-2012, while a gauge of prospective buyer traffic remained weak. The outlook looks somewhat less bleak as sales expectations for the next six months rose for the first time since April. Nonetheless, the gauge remains extremely depressed.
Source: Bloomberg
The latest survey shows 62% of builders are using incentives like mortgage rate buy-downs and paying points for buyers to try to boost sales, but demand remains subdued.
What does this mean for home inventories going forward?
Source: Bloomberg
Nothing good… which mean higher prices, less affordability, and an even more pissed off Fed.
end
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.
A must read: how the Fed totally ignores important data. The latest FOMC forecast is of course bogus
(zerohedge)
Fed Veteran: Powell Ignored The Latest CPI Data, Latest FOMC Forecast Is Bogus
One reason for the sellside anguish is that the Fed is forecasting zero rate cuts throughout 2023 at a time when it expects unemployment to rise by almost 1%, or some 1.6 million job losses: a laughable prediction when one considers the screams of outrage from Democrat politicians once we get the first negative payrolls print.
Others, like Goldman trader Mike Cahill were confused by what the Fed was trying to achieve:
“Powell clearly doesn’t want to explicitly guide towards 25bp, but his comments clearly cut in that direction. His comparison to moving around in a dark room is the same analogy he used in the last cycle, and suggests overall that he thinks policy should move towards more ‘normal’ increments. He adds an important caveat that he wants to see financial conditions reflect the restrictive policy they’re trying to put in place. However, we disagree with his view that the pace of hikes is much less relevant than the level they’re trying to move to…. Powell also reiterated that the Fed believes there is still a lot of tightening ‘in the pipeline’ and policy is in restrictive territory now (just not quite ‘sufficiently restrictive’). That’s counter to the GS FCI framework, where we believe that the bulk of the negative impulse on growth is already behind us.”
And then there was simple math ineptitude: according to the Fed’s latest quarterly projections, Fed officials now expect core inflation to end this year around 4.8%, a sharp jump from the 4.5% figure they forecast in September.
The problem, as Bloomberg noted this morning, is that the Fed’s core PCE forecast looks much too high to Wall Street economists following the surprisingly soft CPI release on Tuesday, even though Chair Jerome Powell said it was reflected in the projections.
It’s an important question because, as BBG’s Matthew Boesler explains, Powell specifically cited the higher “jump-off” point for inflation this year as one reason for the surprising upgrade to where Fed officials see prices at the end of 2023. That outlook, in turn, led to a hefty upward revision to their projected path for interest rates. So the next two inflation reports will be make-or-break.
“To reach their 2022 forecast, implicitly they have extremely strong December numbers for inflation written in,” said Alan Detmeister, an economist at UBS Securities.
Actually we would take the under any day, and say there is virtually no chance core PCE closes out the year anywhere near 4.8%.
As a reminder, the Fed’s own projections — and its 2% target — don’t use CPI, instead they are framed in terms of the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, and November data for that won’t be published until Dec. 23 (the latest CPI report showed the core inflation rose just 0.2% last month, and continues to slow). Meanwhile, JPM economists estimate core PCE prices probably rose just 0.1% in November, based on the latest CPI as well as last week’s PPI report.
Indicatively, October core PCE prices rose 0.2%. Putting together the actual October number with the estimated November number leaves a December number that would have to buck the downtrend of recent months in a big way. If JPM is right, and the November core PCE increase is just 0.1%, December would require a 0.7% jump in core prices for the Fed to hit its 4.8% number for the year. Even a sizable 0.4% increase in December might translate to just 4.6% for the annual figure. More realistically, tracking the decline in core PCI, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric will likely slump to ~4.2% by the end of the year, badly missing the Fed’s revised forecast!
While no one knows what the December data — which won’t be published until the end of January — will show, “you need a real story” to get to those kinds of numbers, said Steven Englander, the head of global G10 FX research and North America strategy for Standard Chartered Bank. Furthermore, given the sharp slowdown in goods inflation as well as the modest easing in housing inflation which is just months away from decelerating and catching down to what is really happening in the rental and housing markets, “if Powell thought that that was going to happen, I think it would have been incumbent for him to say, don’t be misled because December’s going to be a whopper,” Englander said.
There is a simpler explanation: the Fed simply ignored the latest CPI report and based its forecast and dots on the recent “hot”data (including last week’s PPI which came in well above expectations). This means that the Fed refused to update its forecasts for the latest data!
That’s the theory of UBS economist Alan Detmeister, a 15 years Fed veteran, who said the November CPI report published on Tuesday — 90 minutes before the Fed began its two-day policy meeting this week — probably didn’t arrive in time for Fed officials to adjust their forecasts, despite Powell’s insistence that it did.
This is notable because one day before the Fed meeting, none other than the Fed mouthpiece, Nick Timiraos stated that while “FOMC participants submit their quarterly summary of economic projections on the Friday before the Fed meeting when it will be released…. Policymakers may revise their projections at any time until the evening of the first day of the meeting.”
Only that pretty much never happens according to the 15-year Fed veteran:
“They very rarely do,” in part because that would also potentially necessitate revisions to projections for other things like interest rates and unemployment, Detmeister said. “Very few of them would have probably gone ahead and updated their submissions and really worked out what it would’ve taken in December to hit that target.”
This counters what Powell himself said; grilled during the presser about the inconsistency between the Fed’s core PCE forecast and where we currently are, Powell said that “It’s never the case” that the projections “don’t reflect an important piece of data that came in on the first day of the meeting.”
Except this time they do, and not only that but the Fed is also clearly ignoring what it’s won Philadelphia Fed had to say about job numbers in the March-June time period. As we discussed extensively yesterday, a new report by the Philly Fed (released on Dec 13, or hours after the FOMC meeting had already started), found that “In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the [March-June] period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.“
Translation: the Fed was hiking not just 50bps but also 75bps in the late summer and early fall based on job numbers that were not in the mid 300Ks but were effectively flat!
Putting it all together, we can now confidently say that for a Fed whose mandates are inflation and jobs – not the stock market, at least not officially – the Fed has failed on both of these mandates, ignoring critical updates on both the jobs market (which paint a far more dire picture of the US economy) as well as inflation (where the Fed’s core PCE forecast is predicated on stale numbers which ignore the latest data). And while it is only a matter of time before the Fed will have to concede just how behind the curve it is again (remember “transitory inflation”?), what we find most remarkable is how much faith the market still places in the Fed’s busted forecasts.
end
Very interesting: SEC begins to ask questions on Blackstone as redemption hit record highs
(zerohedge)
SEC Begins To Ask Questions As Blackstone’s Flagship Funds Hit Redemption Limits
FRIDAY, DEC 16, 2022 – 02:43 PM
Blackstone Inc.’s stock is down 42% year-to-date. The $68 billion Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT) informed investment advisors and portfolio managers last month who plowed money into the fund that redemption requests in November and December would be capped. Recall BREIT’s redemption request policy is 2% of NAV can be redeemed per month or 5% per calendar quarter. This was the first-time BREIT faced redemption limits, spooking money managers. Then the Blackstone Private Credit Fund (BCRED), one of the largest investment vehicles with a portfolio of corporate loans, was subjected to redemption limits as now the Securities and Exchange Commission investigates.
BREIT and BCRED enforcing redemption limits have been the chatter on Wall Street. Earlier this month, we shared a “BREIT Advisor Guide” that was emailed to money managers with a Q&A section to keep their clients calm and prevent a further run on the fund.
Over the last several years, the non-tradeable funds have been massive outperformance vehicles for wealthy clients. Now there’s a sense of panic given the challenging macro conditions as the Federal Reserve risks sending the economy into a hard landing in the second half of 2023 due to overtightening. Investors fear these non-tradeable funds could become illiquid despite good performance and are pulling out funds and asking questions later.
BREIT’s Advisor Guide to money managers blamed the increased redemptions on Asia.
BREIT’s success has started to complicate its future. It’s attracted investors from all over the world, meaning it is exposed to the trends in a wider array of markets. In Asia, the strong dollar caused BREIT to become a bigger position in leveraged portfolios of wealthy Asians. When home markets tanked, a slew of Asian investors faced margin calls and turned to the parts of their portfolios that could be readily turned to cash — including the Blackstone trust.
Now the only issue is that someone yelled fire, and investors are panicking, which has caught the attention of the SEC, according to people familiar with the matter. Here’s what they told Bloomberg:
The regulator is trying to understand the market impact and circumstances of the events, and asked how the firms met redemptions and if affiliates sold before clients, one of the people said. The inquiries aren’t any indication that either firm is under investigation or committed any wrongdoing.
Here’s a timeline of BREIT’s redemptions via a recent note by Barclays.
Problems for Blackstone are worsening. Financial Times, citing sources, said the New York-based investment manager could delay the launch of the Blackstone Private Equity Strategies Fund, or BXPE, due to the unresolved issues surrounding BREIT and BCRED, dismal fundraising conditions, volatile financial markets, and an aggressive Fed tightening monetary conditions to tame inflation.
These issues are “casting a shadow over the entire industry,” said Sheldon Chang, president of CrowdStreet Advisors. He said, “it will prompt a review of semi-liquid funds and their structure. People will tend to get overly conservative.”
Blackstone has sent its top executives to financial media outlets to counter the redemption panic. President Jon Gray went on CNBC the other day to calm fears. At a conference, Steve Schwarzman, Blackstone’s chief executive officer, said that BREIT’s redemptions were due to investors needing liquidity for other reasons rather than issues with the fund.
What appears to be happening is that investors are exiting hard-to-trade assets ahead of the possible recession next year. People are building cash as the risk now is that the Fed could cause a hard landing.
end
Denver mayor declares state of emergency amid an influx of illegal immigrant
(Roberts/EpochTimes)
Denver Mayor Declares Emergency, Says City ‘On Verge Of Reaching Breaking Point’ Amid Influx Of Illegal Immigrants
Mayor Michael Hancock, a Democrat, issued the declaration as several hundred illegal aliens, mostly from Central and South America, have arrived in the state in just the past few days alone.
“Let me be frank: This influx of migrants, the unanticipated nature of their arrival, and our current space and staffing challenges have put an immense strain on city resources to the level where they’re on the verge of reaching a breaking point at this time,” Hancock said at a news conference on Thursday.
“What I don’t want to see is a local humanitarian crisis of unsheltered migrants on our hands because of a lack of resources,” the mayor added.
According to Hancock’s office, more than 900 aliens have arrived in Denver over the past several months, including more than 600 people since Dec. 2.
Approximately 404 aliens are currently being accommodated in the city’s emergency shelters, including 102 at church and nonprofit shelter sites, the mayor’s office said.
The “anticipated nature” of the arrival of the influx of illegal aliens has placed extreme pressure on the city’s efforts to shelter them, leading to limited space which is being further exacerbated by a lack of staffing, Hancock’s office said during Thursday’s news conference, noting that winter weather was set to make the situation worse.
Hancock added that Denver is currently “at the level where we are on the verge of reaching breaking point at this time.”
“The declaration is another tool in the toolbox to help serve the increasing number of migrants arriving in Denver, particularly as winter weather sets in,” Hancock said.
Under the emergency declaration, Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, will be alerted that Denver is enacting a state of emergency.
Denver will then be able to access additional emergency resources to help manage the influx of aliens, and will also be able to continue requesting financial assistance from various funding sources.
Denver has already forked out more than $800,000 on the illegal alien sheltering effort, and that number is expected to increase significantly.
A majority of the aliens who have arrived in Denver are from Venezuela, according to Hancock, and are fleeing a political and humanitarian crisis in their home country.
The mayor took aim at the Biden administration for failing to address the “critical situation” or respond adequately, despite being aware of it.
Finally El Paso mayor declares state of emergency after receiving a mass invasion of migrants
(zerohedge)
El Paso Mayor Finally Declares State Of Emergency After Mass Invasion Of Migrants
SUNDAY, DEC 18, 2022 – 04:00 PM
Better late than never? Democrat Mayor of El Paso, Oscar Leeser, has been refusing to declare a state of emergency in El Paso for weeks as illegal migrant caravans flood into the city across the southern border, but it would seem that he has finally seen the light. Leeser’s announcement comes at the same time as a declaration of emergency from Denver Mayor (and Democrat) Michael Hancock, who now admits that the city cannot continue to support migrants transported there from El Paso.
El Paso has run out of funding to accommodate the 2400+ people entering the city every day from Mexico and is asking for outside assistance to deal with the influx of “asylum seekers.” While the Biden Administration continues to ignore and even obscure the crisis on the southern border, leaked videos of enormous migrant groups lining up for entry at El Paso gates are beginning to circulate, debunking the claim that the White House is taking action.
Biden’s Press Secretary, Karen Jean-Pierre, was recently mocked for her assertion that Biden has been “doing the work from day one” to secure the border. Clearly, the evidence shows that she is lying:
The refusal of the White House and Democrat run cities to act honestly when it comes to the migrant crisis suggests a desire to avoid political accountability (either that, or an agenda to deliberately destabilize the country). If they admit to the crisis, they then have to admit that their immigration policies are a failure. So, they attempt to gaslight the American public and hide the truth. Karen Jean-Pierre even attempted to blame Republicans for the situation instead of taking responsibility.
The unprecedented wave of illegal immigrants has resulted in a historic number of apprehensions (at least 2.4 million in the past year) as well as fiscal disaster in the cities that accommodate migrants instead of arresting them and sending them back across the border. The impending end of Title 42 this month has accelerated the threat. The law requires migrants to be transported back to Mexico immediately after being stopped by Border Patrol, instead of allowing them to remain in the US for months or even years while waiting for courts to decide their citizenship status.
Migrants in many cases are able to collect extensive welfare if designated as asylum seekers or refugees, and Census Bureau data shows that at least 63% of them do in fact try to obtain benefits. Biden is also pressing for a general amnesty for millions of migrants that are already residing in the US, which is encouraging even more border crossings.
In 2017, multiple Democrat controlled cities in Texas including El Paso sought to obstruct Texas law SB 4, which was designed to prevent sanctuary city status from being used within the state. The law was passed, but El Paso has continued to encourage an endless river of migrants into Texas anyway. Now, the city leadership finally acknowledges they are in trouble, with an Arctic front bearing down on Texas and thousands of migrants on the streets with no available shelter.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott faced a flurry of attacks from progressive politicians after he initiated a program to bus migrants out of Texas and leave them on the doorsteps of leftist cities like New York, Washington DC and Chicago. Democrat “strongholds” for illegal migrants are being quickly exposed as unprepared and hypocritical; they expect border states to absorb the invasion of millions of migrants while they are incapable of dealing with a mere handful.
The busing controversy culminated with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis transporting nearly 50 migrants to the elitist vacation island of Martha’s Vineyard. The move created a firestorm of outrage from leftists and accusations of “human exploitation” against conservative state leaders.
Hilariously, the “humanitarian” progressives of Martha’s Vineyard were quick to buy the migrants cheap lunches in a highly publicized PR stunt, and then they quietly loaded them onto a bus the next day. They were shipped off the island to a camp on a military base. None of them were allowed to stay, none of them were offered housing and none of them were offered jobs by officials or residents at Martha’s Vineyard.
The “do as we say, not as we do” ideology of the political left when it comes to illegal immigration has been revealed, and economic reality is becoming undeniable. The US simply cannot continue to allow millions of non-citizens to enter our nation unchecked. It is not practical from an economic standpoint nor is it practical from a social and cultural standpoint. If the trend continues the crisis will turn into outright disaster.
end
Now New York cries uncle with their new wave of illegal migrant
(zerohedge)
“We Are In Urgent Need For Help”: NYC Mayor Starts Freaking Out Over Impending Wave Of Illegal Migrants
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 06:55 AM
New York City Mayor Eric Adams on Sunday warned that the city should brace for more than 1,000 new migrants arriving every week, which will coincide with cuts in critical city services, as a key Biden administration policy on immigration is set to expire this week.
Adams added that state and federal governments have “mostly ignored” please from the city to fund the influx of asylum seekers who are in ‘desperate need of help,’ the NY Daily News reports, citing the mayor’s statement.
“Our shelter system is full, and we are nearly out of money, staff and space,” said Adams, adding “This can’t continue.”
Adams’ speech comes as the city’s primary shelter system, which stood at 61,379 on Thursday, was set to break the 2019 record of 61,415, as at least nine migrant buses arrived on Friday.
The Biden administration has been using the Title 42 border policy, a controversial tool former President Donald Trump used to keep asylum seekers in Mexico, since mid-October to stem the flow of asylum seekers who streamed into the city seeking refuge.
But that policy is set to run out on Wednesday. -NY Daily News
“We have been told in no uncertain terms that … we should expect an influx of buses coming from the border and that more than 1,000 additional asylum seekers will arrive in New York City every week,” said Adams, adding “We are in urgent need for help.”
Adams cautioned that New Yorkers could pay a steep price.
“Truth be told, if corrective measures are not taken soon, we may very well be forced to cut or curtail programs New Yorkers rely on,” said the mayor, adding that New York’s ability to handle new arrivals is in question.
“These are not choices we want to make, but they may become necessary, and I refuse to be forced to choose new arrivals over current New Yorkers.”
The dire warning marked the most strident call yet for help from Adams, who in October praised Biden’s Title 42 strategy to lower the number of asylum seekers straining the city’s social services.
The city is coping with the needs of more than 31,000 asylum seekers, running 60 emergency shelters, four humanitarian relief centers and two welcome centers, said Adams, who laid the blame on politicians from both sides of the aisle.. -NY Daily News
According to Adams, “We’ve already spent hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars paying to clothe, feed, house, and support this deeply in-need population,” adding “New Yorkers … have been asked to shoulder this burden almost entirely alone, despite the fact that this challenge originated far beyond our city’s borders.“
On Saturday, the Democrat mayor of El Paso, Oscar Leeser, declared a state of emergency – following in the footsteps of Denver’s Democrat Mayor Michael Hancock, who recently admitted that the city can’t continue to support migrants transported from the border.
El Paso has run out of funding to accommodate the 2400+ people entering the city every day from Mexico and is asking for outside assistance to deal with the influx of “asylum seekers.” While the Biden Administration continues to ignore and even obscure the crisis on the southern border, leaked videos of enormous migrant groups lining up for entry at El Paso gates are beginning to circulate, debunking the claim that the White House is taking action.
Even Elon Musk on Sunday asked who so few news organizations are reporting on the influx of illegal immigrants.
As we noted on Sunday, the refusal of the White House and Democrat run cities to act honestly when it comes to the migrant crisis suggests a desire to avoid political accountability (either that, or an agenda to deliberately destabilize the country). If they admit to the crisis, they then have to admit that their immigration policies are a failure. So, they attempt to gaslight the American public and hide the truth. Karen Jean-Pierre even attempted to blame Republicans for the situation instead of taking responsibility.
The unprecedented wave of illegal immigrants has resulted in a historic number of apprehensions (at least 2.4 million in the past year) as well as fiscal disaster in the cities that accommodate migrants instead of arresting them and sending them back across the border. The impending end of Title 42 this month has accelerated the threat. The law requires migrants to be transported back to Mexico immediately after being stopped by Border Patrol, instead of allowing them to remain in the US for months or even years while waiting for courts to decide their citizenship status.
Migrants in many cases are able to collect extensive welfare if designated as asylum seekers or refugees, and Census Bureau data shows that at least 63% of them do in fact try to obtain benefits. Biden is also pressing for a general amnesty for millions of migrants that are already residing in the US, which is encouraging even more border crossings.
END
FBI Faces Subpoenas After Twitter Files Exposing Social Media Ties: House Republican
The FBI is facing subpoenas after the so-called “Twitter Files” revealed that the bureau had been working closely with the social media company, according to Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), who is the incoming chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.
“We are definitely pursuing the Department of Justice and also the FBI,” Turner told Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” before adding, “We certainly intend to pursue subpoena power to expose the extent to which the FBI has been doing this.”
He thanked the new Twitter chief Elon Musk for making the internal Twitter documents available.
“While we pursue intelligence community to try to hold them accountable, while we’re doing that, Elon Musk is showing what’s happening on the other side with the willing partners, the mainstream media, social media, and really exposing coordination that was occurring between the FBI and them,” Turner added.
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk arrives on the red carpet for the Axel Springer media award in Berlin on Dec. 1, 2020. (Hannibal Hanschke/Pool Photo via AP)
The sixth batch of internal Twitter documents, released by journalist Matt Taibbi on Dec. 16, revealed that the FBI and Twitter had “constant and pervasive” communications. The bureau allegedly treated Twitter as a “subsidiary” and flagged accounts and tweets for Twitter to take action against.
One particular set of documents House Republicans will seek to obtain via the subpoenas are the FBI’s “secret files,” according to Turner.
“It is my understanding from our contacts that we have had with the FBI that there are secret files that the FBI has of these contacts that they were having with social media and with mainstream media,” Turner said.
The Ohio Republican added that the bureau has resisted providing these files so far.
“It has been our objective to get a hold of those files, to see the extent of this, so we can stop it, we can cut off the funding and prevent, obviously, average Americans being impacted by FBI actions,” he said.
In fact, the FBI has been engaging with social media companies under false pretenses, according to the Ohio Republican.
“The FBI had, under the cover of saying they were pursuing foreign malign influence, had really exploded into activities that involved engaging with mainstream media and social media, and really impacting what is the normal debate of democracy,” Turner said.
“What’s really troubling here in my opinion is this is not based on intelligence.”
The House Intelligence Committee in the Republican-led House will look into who was the mastermind behind the FBI’s interactions with Twitter.
“Who is it that’s coordinating this? How can we cut off the money, prohibit this in the future?” Turner said.
“We will use our subpoena power to track that down and make certain that this doesn’t happen again.”
Elon Musk’s Twitter profile on a smartphone placed on printed Twitter logos on April 28, 2022. (Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Reuters)
Turner expressed confidence that the committee’s investigation will get the answers it is looking for from the FBI and the Department of Justice.
“Luckily, the January 6 committee has established some great legal precedent that shows the Congress has full access,” he continued.
“So they’re going to have very much a difficult time trying to prevent us [from] getting those documents.”
Republicans
Turner is not the only Republican demanding answers from the FBI following the release of the sixth installment of the “Twitter Files.”
“@FBI has a lot to answer for after the latest drop of #TwitterFiles6,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) wrote on Twitter on Dec. 16.
Gaetz said that he will be joined by Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Mike Johnson (R-La.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), and Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) in “asking the questions.”
“Clear your calendar,” he added.
Jordan is poised to become chairman of the House Judiciary Committee in January.
According to Taibbi, the FBI formed a social media-focused task force of 80 agents after the 2016 election, and they “corresponded with Twitter to identify alleged foreign influence and election tampering of all kinds.”
Additionally, the Department of Homeland Security partnered with third-party security contractors and think tanks “to pressure Twitter to moderate content,” according to Taibbi.
“80 @FBI agents were colluding with Twitter to police content and moderate Americans’ speech? Sounds like Communist China to me,” Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) wrote on Twitter on Dec. 16, in response to Taibbi’s revelation. “Investigations are coming!”
Ranking member Rep. James Comer Jr. (R-Ky.) speaks during a House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing on gun violence in Washington on June 8, 2022. (Andrew Harnik-Pool/Getty Images)
Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), the incoming chairman of the House Oversight Committee, also took exception to the FBI’s task force, in an appearance on Fox News’ Hannity on Dec. 16.
“What we found today is the FBI had its own ministry of propaganda—80 FBI agents dedicated to nothing but censoring free speech on the internet,” Comer said.
“Eighty! As someone who’s going to be incoming chairman of the House Oversight Committee, that’s roughly $12 million in expenses to the taxpayers in salary and benefits.”
Two Republicans suggested the sixth installment of the “Twitter Files” could suggest that FBI has worked with Facebook and Google in a similar capacity.
“And if FBI used Twitter to censor, you bet they also used Google and Facebook,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) wrote on Twitter.
“Now apply what we know they did at Twitter to @facebook @Google and more,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) wrote on Twitter. “I’m really looking forward to Republican control, committee work, and subpoena power.”
A big story: massive wave of car repossessions and loan defaults. A clear sign of trouble in the uSA economy:
(zerohedge)
Perfect Storm Arrives: “Massive Wave” Of Car Repossessions And Loan Defaults To Trigger Auto Market Disaster, Cripple US Economy
Perfect Storm Arrives: “Massive Wave” Of Car Repossessions And Loan Defaults To Trigger Auto Market Disaster, Cripple US Economy
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Published17 hours ago
onDecember 17, 2022
This article was originally published by Zero Hedge
Perfect Storm Arrives: “Massive Wave” Of Car Repossessions And Loan Defaults To Trigger Auto Market Disaster, Cripple US Economy
For almost a year now, we have been dutifully tracking several key datasets within the auto sector to find the critical inflection point in this perhaps most leading of economic indicators which will presage not only a crushing auto loan crisis, but also signal the arrival of a full-blown recession, one which even the NBER won’t be able to ignore, as the US consumers are once again tapped out. We believe that moment has now arrived.
But first, for those readers who are unfamiliar with the space, we urge you to read some of our recent articles on the topic of car prices – which alongside housing, has been the biggest driver of inflation in the past 18 months – and more specifically how these are funded by the US middle class, i.e., car loans, and last but not least, the interest rate paid for said loans. Here are a few places to start:
So while the big picture is clear – Americans are using ever more debt to fund record new car prices – fast-forwarding to today, we have observed two ominous new developments: the latest consumer credit report from the Fed revealed a dramatic spike in the amount of new car loans, which increased by more than $2,000 in one quarter, from just over $38,000 (a record), to $40,155 (a new record).
Now this shouldn’t come as a shock: a simple reason why new car loans have hit record highs is simply because new car prices have also soared to all time highs, as the next chart shows.
Here we will ignore for the time being cause and effect, or “chicken or egg” questions – i.e., whether record new car prices are the result of easy record credit, or whether record new car loans are simply tracking the explosive surge in car prices, and instead focus on something even more ominous: the explosion in the average interest rate on a new 60 month auto loans: according to Bankrate, as of Dec 16, the number is just over 6.50%, almost doubling since the start of the year, and the highest in 12 years.
It is this surge in nominal auto debt as well as the unprecedented spike in new auto loan rates, that we believe has finally pushed the US car sector to the infamous Wile Coyote point of no return.
Consider the following: according to various recent financial analysts, a growing number of consumers are falling behind on their car payments – a trend which will only accelerate – in a sign of the strain soaring car prices and prolonged inflation are having on household budgets.
As NBC reports, whereas repossessions tumbled at the start of the pandemic when Americans got a boost from stimulus checks and lenders were more willing to accommodate those behind on their payments, in recent months, the number of people behind on their car payments has been approaching prepandemic levels, and for the lowest-income consumers, the rate of loan defaults is now exceeding where it was in 2019, according to a recent report from Fitch.
Naturally, with the economy set to slump into a Fed-induced recession, the trend will only get much worse into 2023 with economists expecting unemployment to rise, inflation to remain relatively high (at least until the economy crashes) and household savings – already at record lows – set to dwindle. At the same time, a growing number of consumers are having to stretch their budgets to afford a vehicle; the average monthly payment for a new car is up 26% since 2019 to $718 a month, and nearly one in six new car buyers is spending more than $1,000 a month on vehicles. Other costs associated with owning a car have also shot up, including insurance, gas and repairs.
“These repossessions are occurring on people who could afford that $500 or $600 a month payment two years ago, but now everything else in their life is more expensive,” said Ivan Drury, director of insights at car buying website Edmunds. “That’s where we’re starting to see the repossessions happen because it’s just everything else starting to pin you down.”
The silver lining is that while the US auto sector faces unmitigated disaster in 2023, for those in the repossession business, it’s been difficult to keep up. Jeremy Cross, the president of International Recovery Systems in Pennsylvania, said he can’t find enough repo men to meet the demand or space to hold all the cars his company has been tasked with repossessing. With the holidays approaching, he’s been particularly busy as people prioritize spending elsewhere, and he’s expecting business to keep up throughout next year and 2024.
“Right now, it’s really the perfect storm,” said Cross. “Over the last two years, vehicle prices were inflated because there was no new car supply, people were still buying like crazy because they had a lot of stay-at-home cash, they had inflated credit scores, so it was like a recipe for disaster.”
Ironically, at the same time, the number of repossession companies has shrunk by 30% as many firms closed up shop and the workers found jobs in other industries when repossessions tumbled during 2020, Cross said. Now, he told NBC, lenders are paying him premiums to repossess their cars first in anticipation of a continued increase in loan defaults (read: plunging prices).
“The volume is picking up, and the remaining companies that are still performing repossessions are very busy,” Cross said. “The overall numbers are still not prepandemic numbers, but we will see a big change coming in ‘23 and ‘24 that I think the lenders are starting to recognize because they are offering financial incentives that they never had to do in the past. They’re jockeying for position knowing that there’s only a certain amount of bandwidth available.”
Predictably, the coming auto crisis is an issue that’s raised concern among officials at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, who say they are seeing troubling signs in the auto market, particularly among so-called subprime borrowers, who have below-average credit scores, and those with loans taken out in 2021 and 2022 when auto prices were particularly high.
Yes: that 2008 deja vu feeling is back front and center….and so are the defaults.
“Loans taken out in those years are performing worse than prior years just because those consumers had to finance cars once the supply chains were jammed and the prices started to go up,” said Ryan Kelly, acting auto finance program manager for the CFPB. “Those consumers got hit with inflation twice. First, when they had to finance a car after the prices went up, and then when they had to put gas in the car after the Russia-Ukraine conflict started. So there’s just a lot of consumer stress.”
What happens next?
Well, as the economy continues to deteriorate in 2023, the number of those falling behind on their car payments will continue to rise, even as consumers tend to give priority to their car payment ahead of most bills because of the importance a car plays in getting to work or potentially providing shelter, industry analysts said.
For now, the rate of defaults and repossessions isn’t expected to reach 2008 and 2009 levels, when there was a spike caused by the financial crisis. The percentage of auto loans that were 30 days delinquent was at 2.2% in the third quarter compared with 2.35% delinquent over the same period in 2019, according to data from Experian. By contrast, just over 4% of auto loans went into default in 2009. However, that could quickly change once the 2023 economy unleashes the final whammy of mass layoffs (which have already slammed the tech sector).
“We’re expecting it to continue to increase and maybe even breach prepandemic levels because of the macroeconomic headwinds of higher interest rates, higher cost of borrowing and expectations for unemployment to continue to increase,” said Margaret Rowe, the lead auto analyst at Fitch. “I think our expectation is that we’re going to continue to see it go up, but it’s just been so low that even going up isn’t like what we saw in the Great Financial Crisis.”
Some, like Cox Automotive, remain optimistic: their analysts (who just may be a little conflicted) forecast that while loan defaults and repossessions will increase from their pandemic lows, long-term through 2025 they predict overall defaults and repossessions will remain at or below historic norms.
Still, the financial squeeze has been particularly difficult for lower-income consumers looking for budget vehicles, which have been particularly hard to find. While in the past, those car buyers would have purchased a used car for $7,000 to $15,000 they are now having to spend $20,000 to $25,000 for the same type of vehicle. Among dealers that cater to subprime and deep subprime consumers, the average listing price on their cars has almost doubled since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the CFPB.
“That near prime and subprime group of consumers, they’re getting hit very, very hard by inflation. That group of people did not have much disposable income. They had to finance a more expensive car and then they got hit with prices going up overall. There’s just a lot of stress,” said Kelly.
Ally Financial, which has a significant share of loans to subprime borrowers, said in its October earnings report that it expects delinquencies to increase to as much as 3.8% compared with 3.1% in 2019. That estimate will prove to be overly optimistic.
Another risk to car buyers’ finances is the growing length of auto loans, many of which now exceed seven years. While those longer term loans can lower the monthly payments amid higher prices, consumers risk paying off the loan much more slowly than the car is depreciating, leaving them underwater if they need to sell the vehicle. It can also mean higher interest costs over the life of the loan on top of already inflated vehicle prices.
And speaking of interest rates, they have not been this high since 2009 and will stay at their current levels until the Fed finally pivots. As NBC notes, “for consumers, there is unlikely to be any relief over the next year. Interest rates are expected to remain high for those needing to borrow to buy a vehicle, and Covid-related plant closures and material shortages are continuing to ripple through the car manufacturing supply chain, limiting the number of new vehicles.”
“I dare think what happens to people who are signing up for new loans today,” said Drury. “It’s not going to be better when we see these payments so high.”
But wait, there’s more.
As twitter’s CarDealershipGuy – who claims to be an anonymous auto-industry CEO and whose analysis has been featured in places like the NY Post and who frequently Tweets about the state of the auto market – laid out a long thread on Thursday, all of the above may end up being an overly optimistic assessment of the perfect storm that’s about to hit the auto sector:
“This morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending. I’m now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023,” he wrote.
Recapping much of what we said above, he noted that over the past 2 years, many people took out exorbitant loans on cars and while car values were inflated (and still are) but many people simply had no choice and bought an overpriced a car. Then, echoing the Fitch assessment, he notes how those buyers are underwater: “Car valuations are now plummeting. Some cars have declined in value as much as 30% y/y. And these same people that took out these big loans are now ‘underwater’. Basically, they owe banks more on these cars than they are worth. And the banks are well-aware of this.”
The punchline is his personal experience from late last week. “This morning, one of our General Managers opened up DealerTrack — a portal that dealers use to communicate with auto lenders — and highlighted something very concerning. 9 of our lending partners have started WAIVING ‘open auto stipulations’ for consumers.”
What this means, he explained, is that once consumers are stuck with a vehicle they paid too much for, they can’t trade it in without putting some money up front to cover the difference of what is owed on it versus what it is worth. At that point, he notes, “Dealer can’t sell consumer a car, Consumer can’t buy a car, And, you guessed it, lender can’t finance a car!”
The lender then knows that most consumers are stuck and waives the open auto stipulation – meaning they allow the consumer to buy the new car with a second loan knowing they already have a first one. But the lender does it because they know that the buyer will default on the old, other car.
Cue default avalanche: “This is NOT normal. But it’s the only way lenders can finance cars and dealers can put cars on the road. And the implications of this will be tons of repossessions,” the CEO wrote.
He concluded: “I’ve been a doubter, but after what I saw this morning, I’m now FULLY convinced that a wave of car repossessions will hit in early/mid 2023. If lenders are willing to backstab each other in order to put more loans on the road, we’re in trouble.”
Here is a snapshot of his entire thread:
This morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending. I’m now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023.
Here’s what I discovered (and what no one knows):
Background:
Over the past 2 years, many people took out exorbitant loans on cars. Car values were inflated (and frankly, still are to some extent). But many people simply had no choice and bought an overpriced a car.
Well…
Car valuations are now plummeting. Some cars have declined in value as much as 30% y/y. And these same people that took out these big loans are now “underwater”.
Basically, they owe banks more on these cars than they are worth. And the banks are well-aware of this…
But there is no easy solution. You can’t just put the genie back in the bottle. This brings me to what happened this morning:
Every Friday I conduct a team meeting to recap our week.
This morning, one of our General Managers opened up DealerTrack — a portal that dealers use to communicate with auto lenders — and highlighted something very concerning:
9 of our lending partners have started WAIVING “open auto stipulations” for consumers.
Wait, wtf does that even mean?
Let me explain using a simple, hypothetical scenario:
1) Consumer takes out an auto loan in 2020/2021 on an overvalued car
2) 2022 comes around and that overvalued car is now rapidly declining in value
3) With the car declining in value, consumer now owes more on the car than it is worth
4) Consumer no longer wants the car. Maybe they outgrew it. Or maybe it keeps breaking. So consumer wants to trade it in.
5) But dealer can’t trade the car in because the consumer owes WAY too much on it. So dealer asks consumer for lots of money down to cover the difference.
6) But of course, the consumer doesn’t have $1,000s to cover the difference between what they owe on the car and what it’s worth. And here comes the perfect storm…
7) Dealer can’t sell consumer a car, Consumer can’t buy a car, And, you guessed it, lender can’t finance a car! Everybody loses! Oh no. So what happens next?
8) Lender knows that most consumers are stuck in this situation, and does the following:
WAIVES THE OPEN AUTO STIPULATION.
Meaning, the lender lets the consumer buy the car KNOWING that they already have an open auto loan with another bank!
Why the f*ck would they do this?
Surely the lender knows that consumers that take out a 2nd auto loan are MUCH riskier and have a MUCH high risk of default? Right? RIGHT?
Yes, but the lender does it because they know that the consumer will default on the other car !!!!
Dog eat dog style.
Let me be clear: This is NOT normal.
But it’s the only way lenders can finance cars and dealers can put cars on the road.
And the implications of this will be tons of repossessions.
I’ve been a doubter, but after what I saw this morning, I’m now FULLY convinced that a wave of car repossessions will hit in early/mid 2023. If lenders are willing to backstab each other in order to put more loans on the road, we’re in trouble.
This will not end pretty.
What does this mean in simple terms: well, besides the imminent devastation across the auto sector, including a surge in defaults and car repossessions, we are about to witness a historic collapse in car prices. In fact, in a subsequent tweet, the CarDealershipGuy noted the plunge in prices at troubled used-car dealer Carvana which will be the first domino to fall and be forced to liquidate much if not all of its inventory to stay afloat:
These are all retail-ready cars being advertised to other dealers – likely at a big loss.
Translation: just as soaring car prices were the leading indicator for red-hot, runaway inflation in 2021 and 2022 (followed by housing, food, goods and finally services) so the plunge in car prices – first used, then new – is the canary in the recessionary coal mine of deflation that will send all prices – cars, houses, and everything else – sharply lower in the coming months.
USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//DERIVATIVES
END
SWAMP STORIES
TWITTER FILES: How The FBI Moved To Quash Hunter Laptop Story Before, And After, NY Post Bombshell
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 11:58 AM
In the latest episode of ‘THE TWITTER FILES,’ journalist Michael Shellenberger reveals “How the FBI & intelligence community discredited factual information about Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings both after and *before* The New York Post revealed the contents of his laptop on October 14, 2020.”
Continued…
The story begins in December 2019 when a Delaware computer store owner named John Paul (J.P.) Mac Isaac contacts the FBI about a laptop that Hunter Biden had left with him
On Dec 9, 2019, the FBI issues a subpoena for, and takes, Hunter Biden’s laptop.
By Aug 2020, Mac Isaac still had not heard back from the FBI, even though he had discovered evidence of criminal activity. And so he emails Rudy Giuliani, who was under FBI surveillance at the time. In early Oct, Giuliani gives it to @nypost
Shortly before 7 pm ET on October 13, Hunter Biden’s lawyer, George Mesires, emails JP Mac Isaac.
Hunter and Mesires had just learned from the New York Post that its story about the laptop would be published the next day.
7. At 9:22 pm ET (6:22 PT), FBI Special Agent Elvis Chan sends 10 documents to Twitter’s then-Head of Site Integrity, Yoel Roth, through Teleporter, a one-way communications channel from the FBI to Twitter.
8. The next day, October 14, 2020, The New York Post runs its explosive story revealing the business dealings of President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. Every single fact in it was accurate.
9. And yet, within hours, Twitter and other social media companies censor the NY Post article, preventing it from spreading and, more importantly, undermining its credibility in the minds of many Americans.
Why is that? What, exactly, happened?
10. On Dec 2, @mtaibbi described the debate inside Twitter over its decision to censor a wholly accurate article.
Since then, we have discovered new info that points to an organized effort by the intel community to influence Twitter & other platforms
Developing…
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report December 19, 2022 Issue 6910
Independent View of the News
ECB Will Probably Increase Pace of QT From July, Villeroy SaysBank of France governor says rate hikes still ECB’s main toolVilleroy says ECB to review quantitative tightening in JuneThe ECB will likely accelerate the pace of quantitative tightening from July next year, says GoverningCouncil member Francois Villeroy de Galhau… https://t.co/a0VLWpkO17
Bank of Italy Raises Inflation Forecasts on Energy Price Hikes (8.8% from 8.5% this year, 7.3% from 6.5% in 2023) The Bank of Italy raises its inflation forecasts for the next three years on the continuing increase of energy costs and more pronounced wage growth in 2024… https://t.co/scLb73Y4Mr
(NY) Fed’s Williams Says Tight Labor Market Warrants Higher Rates‘It could be higher than what we’ve written down’“We have clear signs that demand exceeds supply in our labor market” and broader economy, Williams said Friday… He expects inflation to slow to the 3% to 3.5% range next year, but “the real issue is how do we get it all the way” to 2%, Williams said… “Where inflation is still high is in these core-services area – the areas that probably going to be more persistent and really reflect the imbalances between supply and demand in the labor market and the overall economy,”… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-16/fed-s-williams-says-tight-labor-market-warrants-higher-rates
Dec S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 46.2, 47.7 in Nov; 47.8 expected Dec S&P Global US Services PMI 44.4, 46.2 in Nov; 46.5 expected Dec S&P Global US Composite PMI 44.6, 46.4 in Nov; 46.9 expected (All indices indicate recession)
S&P Global: Driving the fall in total activity was a quicker decrease in new business across the private sector. Pressure on purchasing power among customers and company balance sheets led to a strong decline in new orders, and one that was the fastest since May 2020. Weak demand conditions were broad-based, though manufacturing firms saw a steeper decrease in new orders compared to their service sector counterparts… “Business conditions are worsening as 2022 draws to a close, with a steep fall in the PMI indicative of GDP contracting in the fourth quarter at an annualized rate of around 1.5%. Jobs growth has meanwhile slowed to a crawl as firms across both manufacturing and services take a much more cautious approach to hiring amid the slump in customer demand.” — Chris Williamson, Chief S&P Biz Economist https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2449edd6ab0a49b9bd0103ecc24a28b3
ESHs traded slightly negative during early Asian trading on Friday. They went positive after 21:00 ET. The modest rally ended quickly; ESHs went negative by 23:22 ET. They rallied to unchanged near the 1 ET Nikkei close. After another modest rally, ESHs commenced a decline after China’s 2 ET close. The decline accelerated when Europe opened at 3 ET. A bottom of 3871.25 appeared at 5:47 ET.
After an A-B-C rally took ESHs to 3897.25 at 8 ET, ESHs retreated but they soared just before the NYSE opened. ESHs jumped from 3879.75 at 9:25 ET to 3907.50 at 9:31 ET. They hit a peak of 3912.50 at 9:48 ET. The conditioned trader buying was ill-conceived; ESHs sank to 3864.50 by 10:34 ET.
ESHs and stocks hit new lows near noon. SF Fed President Mary Daly inhibited the Noon Balloon.
Daly: Fed ‘Is Far Away’ from Its Price-Stability Goal – BBG 12:05 ET Fed’s Daly Says My Inflation Projection Has Gone Up Fed’s Daly says service inflation still too high and reflects rising wages Daly: Labor Market Is Out of Balance, Affects Core Service Inflation – BBG Daly: It usually takes quite a bit longer for labor market inflation to come down Daly: Risks to US Inflation Are Still to the Upside – BBG Daly: Unemployment Has to Rise to 4.5% or Higher to Help Slow Inflation – DJ Daly: Don’t Know Why Markets Are So Optimistic on Inflation – BBG 12:25 ET
After Daly finished speaking, a belated Noon Balloon appeared. It ended in 5 minutes; ESHs and stocks then sank to new lows. A modest rally materialized after 13:30 ET. The moderate rally ended at the VIX Fix (14:15 ET). After a modest retreat, the pre-last hour rally began. It was lackluster until it accelerated after 15:10 ET. There were $4 trillion reasons to manipulate ESHs and stocks higher. The rally peaked at 15:41 ET. An A-B-C decline into the close developed.
Positive aspects of previous session Commodities declined (but on recession angst)
Negative aspects of previous session Equities and bonds declined
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Has the Fed done enough to disabuse the usual suspects that a Fed pivot is nigh?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Down; Last Hour:Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3857.05 Previous session High/Low: 3890.91; 3827.91
TUCKER CARLSON: Here’s what a source said about the CIA and JFK’s assassination In 1992, Congress passed the President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act. That act mandated full disclosure of all documents by 2017, 54 years after JFK was killed. The last administration promised to comply fully with that law. But under intense pressure from CIA Director Mike Pompeo, withheld, in the end, thousands of pages of CIA documents. The Biden administration did exactly the same thing…Clearly, it’s not to protect any person. They’re all dead. It’s to protect an institution. But why? Well, today we decided to find out. We spoke to someone who had access to these still hidden CIA documents, a person who was deeply familiar with what they contained. We asked this person directly, “Did the CIA have a hand in the murder of John F. Kennedy, an American President? And here’s the reply we received verbatim. Quote, “The answer is yes. I believe they were involved. It’s a whole different country from what we thought it was. It’s all fake.”…It means that within the US government, there are forces wholly beyond democratic control… https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1603558942558359553
Robert F. Kennedy Jr @RobertKennedyJr: The most courageous newscast in 60 years. The CIA’s murder of my uncle was a successful coup d’état from which our democracy has never recovered.
And President Kennedy, as the enormity of the Bay of Pigs disaster came home to him, said to one of the highest officials of his Administration that he “wanted to splinter the C.I.A. in a thousand pieces and scatter it to the winds.” – NY Times April 25, 1066 https://gizmodo.com/the-story-behind-that-jfk-quote-about-destroying-the-ci-1793151211
Lee Harvey Oswald’s Last Phone Call – Who did Oswald try to reach the night before he died? The man Oswald was trying to call, John David Hurt, was someone whose name had never been mentioned in connection to the JFK assassination in any of the voluminous records — and John David Hurt was an experienced former Special Agent of U.S. Army Counter Intelligence. As Senator Richard Schweiker had said during the Church Committee Investigations, “”We don’t know what happened, but we do know Oswald had intelligence connections. Everywhere you look with him, there are thefingerprints of intelligence.”… https://emeralddb3.substack.com/p/lee-harvey-oswalds-last-phone-call
@hodgetwins: So the FDA finally came out and said that Pfizer’s Covid shot causes blood clots? Only 2 years late! @elonmusk Replying to @hodgetwins: Much will come to light as Fauci loses power.
@drsimonegold: Fauci recently said on an interview with CNN that he “vaccinated Santa Claus.” This man should never be in charge of anything health-related ever again.
Biden to jet back to White House from Delaware for meetings, holiday receptions – then fly back home (Climate change vs. necessary R&R/meds?) https://t.co/vXb429Assu
@elonmusk on Friday: And soon, ladies & gentlemen, the coup de grâce (Twitter Files 6 dropped)
Biden administration announces purchase of 3 million barrels of oil to replenish reserveshttps://t.co/Frw9Efd0pZ
Japan to Build a More Powerful Military, Citing China as Its No. 1 Menace Tokyo plans to spend 2% of GDP on defense and says its missiles will be able to hit other countries Japan called China its biggest security challenge and said it would sharply raise military spending including for missiles that can hit other countries, marking one of Tokyo’s biggest post-World War II shifts away from pacifism… https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-to-build-a-more-powerful-military-citing-china-as-its-no-1-menace-11671177530
@AlmanacTrader: Yale Hirsch invented our Santa Claus Rally in 1972… SCR is the short, sweet rally that runs from the last 5 trading days of the year to the first two trading days of the New Year. S&P 500 posts an average gain of 1.3%. Failure to rally tends to precede bear markets or times when stocks could be purchased at lower prices later in the year. To wit Yale’s famous line: “If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall.” (Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023 p 118). https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/703806290548457473/santa-claus-rally-mid-december-low-january
WSJ: Individual Investors Hang on in Wild Year for Stocks While Pros Sell Small investors dive into markets as institutional ones grow more bearish U.S. equity mutual and exchange-traded funds, which are popular among individual investors, have attracted more than $100 billion in net inflows this year, one of the highest amounts on record in EPFR data going back to 2000…“The fact that you have not seen very much selling from households is surprising,”… https://www.wsj.com/articles/individual-investors-hang-on-in-wild-year-for-stocks-while-pros-sell-11671322856
Today – After ugly expiry weeks, stocks tend to rally on Monday because the overhang of expiry calls has ended. – especially when there were beaucoup call positions. Plus, traders are conditioned to play for a Monday rally. Once again, the presence or absence of defensive asset allocators will be a key today.
Expected econ data: Dec NAHB Housing Market Index 34; No Fed officials are scheduled this week
ESHs are +6.75 and USHs are -14/32 at 20:10 ET, possibly on defensive asset allocator profit taking.
@mtaibbi on Friday: 1. THREAD: The Twitter Files, Part Six, TWITTER, THE FBI SUBSIDIARY 3. Twitter’s contact with the FBI was constant and pervasive, as if it were a subsidiary. 4. Between January 2020 and November 2022, there were over 150 emails between the FBI and former Twitter Trust and Safety chief Yoel Roth… 6. But a surprisingly high number are requests by the FBI for Twitter to take action on election misinformation, even involving joke tweets from low-follower accounts. 7. The FBI’s social media-focused task force, known as FTIF, created in the wake of the 2016 election, swelled to 80 agents and corresponded with Twitter to identify alleged foreign influence and election tampering of all kinds… (80 FBI agents!!!! FBI Director Wray and AG Barr had to know!) 10. The TwitterFiles show something new: agencies like the FBI and DHS regularly sending social media content to Twitter through multiple entry points, pre-flagged for moderation…11. What stands out is the sheer quantity of reports from the government. Some are aggregated from public hotlines…12. An unanswered question: do agencies like FBI and DHS do in-house flagging work themselves, or farm it out? “You have to prove to me that inside the f-ing government you can do any kind of massive data or AI search,” says one former intelligence officer…23.“I can’t believe the FBI is policing jokes on Twitter. That’s crazy,” said @Tiberius444… 25.The Twitter exec writes she explicitly asked if there were “impediments” to the sharing of classified information “with industry.” The answer? “FBI was adamant no impediments to sharing exist.”… 26. This passage underscores the unique one-big-happy-family vibe between Twitter and the FBI. With what other firm would the FBI blithely agree to “no impediments” to classified information?… 31. In this March, 2021 email, an FBI liaison thanks a senior Twitter exec for the chance to speak to “you and the team,” then delivers a packet of “products.” 32. The executive circulates the “products,” which are really DHS bulletins stressing the need for greater collaboration between law enforcement and “private sector partners.”… 38.State governments also flagged content… 44.The takeaway: what most people think of as the “deep state” is really a tangled collaboration of state agencies, private contractors, and (sometimes state-funded) NGOs. The lines become so blurred as to be meaningless. 45. Twitter Files researchers are moving into a variety of new areas now. Watch @BariWeiss, @ShellenbergerMD, and this space for more. https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1603857734725931009
@lhfang: Here’s the FBI just a month ago asking Twitter for *location* information on a bunch of Twitter users, including the conservative news site @RSBNetwork. The FBI asks Twitter to “voluntarily provide” info and helpfully suggests these users violated Terms of Service. https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1603859044686782465?s=02
@mtaibbi: Instead of chasing child sex predators or terrorists, the FBI has agents — lots of them — analyzing and mass-flagging social media posts. Not as part of any criminal investigation, but as a permanent, end-in-itself surveillance operation. People should not be okay with this.
GOP Sen @HawleyMO: If the FBI used Twitter to censor, you bet they also used Google and Facebook The First Amendment prohibits the government from using private corporations to censor on the government’s behalf. But that’s exactly what the FBI, DHS, and more apparently did with Twitter.
GOP Rep @mattgaetz: @FBI has a lot to answer for after the latest drop of #TwitterFiles6. @Jim_Jordan @RepMikeJohnson @RepAndyBiggsAZ @RepDanBishop and I will be asking the questions. Clear your calendar.
@RNCResearch: Joe Biden says after he was elected VP, he awarded his Uncle Frank with a Purple Heart he earned at the Battle of the Bulge. There is no evidence any of that is true — and Biden’s uncle died in 1999, while Biden wasn’t elected VP until 2008. https://t.co/FlJLjFAE4A
Biden exaggerates his visits to Iraq and Afghanistan at veterans town hall in Delawarehttps://t.co/FMLNOJ6zyk
@elonmusk Dec 14: Last night, car carrying lil X in LA was followed by crazy stalker (thinking it was me), who later blocked car from moving & climbed onto hood. Legal action is being taken against Sweeney & organizations who supported harm to my family.Anyone recognize this person or car? https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1603235998263123969
The day after the incident with Musk’s offspring, some liberals and journalists doxxed Musk, posting links to his real time location on Twitter accounts. Musk suspended them. Their allies and major media organizations had a meltdown over the suspensions. They didn’t care when old Twitter censored others!
@elonmusk Dec 15: They posted my exact real-time location, basically assassination coordinates, in (obvious) direct violation of Twitter terms of service… Criticizing me all day long is totally fine, but doxxing my real-time location and endangering my family is not… Accounts engaged in doxxing receive a temporary 7 day suspension. Same doxxing rules apply to “journalists” as to everyone else…
@WallStreetSilv: So, Elon dropped into that Spaces with all of the crying journalists whining about how they are special and shouldn’t be suspended for doxxing. Elon came on as a speaker and stated the policy, “journalists are no different than any other Twitter user. If you doxx, you get banned” The reporters were trying to say, “but we are just reporting and posting links to where the information is, such as the FAA website that tracks flights”. Elon basically told them that posting links to outside sources is essentially the same thing and to stop being cute about it.
@elonmusk: If anyone posted real-time locations & addresses of NYT reporters, FBI would be investigating, there’d be hearings on Capitol Hill & Biden would give speeches about end of democracy!…My plane is actually not trackable without using non-public data
@Timcast: Jack Sweeney was not posting Public information. Sweeney was posting the private information of @elonmusk and he knew Elon had a “PIA” which seeks to protect the privacy of entities using private aircraft. source: https://web.archive.org/web/2022020310
@seanmdav: Compare the response of these garbage crybully journos after their friends get banned for doxxing Musk’s young child to how they cheered when the New York Post was banned for doing journalism on the foreign business ties of the Democrat presidential candidate’s 50-year-old son.
@ggreenwald: I’d be genuinely happy if this were a transformative moment: where liberals who’ve spent years demanding online censorship now see its evils since it’s directed at them and their friends. But of course it’s not that: they’re complaining because they think *they* should be exempt. Just last month, EU officials were threatening @ElonMusk with sanctions and other legal reprisals if he doesn’t censor more. Now they’re threatening him with sanctions due to last night’s bans. Do you see the issue? Zero principles. Just whether the right people are censored: https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1603784832579936257/photo/1
Marc Andreessen @pmarca: A warm welcome to all the newest converts to the great American cause of free speech!
@TomFitton: Evidently, the way to get corrupt media to cover @Twitter censorship is for @Twitter to censor corrupt media.
@alx: CNN is going to “reevaluate” their “relationship with Twitter” after the suspension of “journalists”. It’s really something to see corporate media do a complete 180 on Censorship https://twitter.com/alx/status/1603611892047646721 @elonmusk Replying to @alx: So they’re saying it’s really bad to suspend people from Twitter
@julie_kelly2: The Left always thinks the pain they inflict on others will never apply to them. @elonmusk suspension of radical activists disguised as journalists is one tiny taste of their own medicine. Perhaps some should now reconsider cheering the criminalization of political dissent.
Musk blasts ‘Twitter Files’ journalist for ‘virtue-signaling’ on doxxing suspensions Weiss took exception to the bans… “What should the consequence of doxxing someone’s real-time, exact location be? Assume your child is at that location, as mine was,” he asked. “Bari, this is a real question, not rhetorical. What is your opinion?… Rather than rigorously pursuing truth, you are virtue-signaling to show that you are ‘good’ in the eyes of media elite to keep one foot in both worlds,” he went on… https://t.co/EpXbmRq9G7
@ajzeigler: Seeing a lot of “We should all be able to agree on doxxing & a desire to keep people safe,” but the reality is elected officials (Schumer et al) have encouraged “getting in people’s face.” The thin veneer of civilization has been pulled back repeatedly in the last few years.
Turley: Censor or Else: Democratic Members Warn Facebook Not to “Backslide” on Censorship In a chilling letter from Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), André Carson (D-Ind.), Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Facebook was given a not-so-subtle threat that reducing its infamous censorship system will invite congressional action…“unlike other major social media platforms, Meta’s policies do not prohibit posts that make unsubstantiated claims about voter fraud.”…Now, Democrats fear Facebook and other social media companies might “backslide” into free speech as Facebook, among others, is faced with declining revenues and ordering layoffs… https://jonathanturley.org/2022/12/18/censor-or-else-democratic-members-warn-facebook-not-to-backslide-on-censorship/
‘I can’t do this anymore’: Steve Bannon fed up with Trump’s latest stuntshttps://trib.al/3My48YC Even Steve Bannon and other key advisers to former President Donald Trump have had enough of his latest stunts — demanding everyone behind his wacky NFT collection be “fired today.”…
Babylon Bee: China Threatens to Fire Senators Who Voted for TikTok Banhttps://t.co/MlFbXfkOQg
FBI sued for suspending analyst, military vet for espousing ‘conspiratorial’ Jan. 6 viewshttps://t.co/J2SHl9qjeV
Norwegian actress Tonje Gjevjon faces up to 3 years in prison for saying men cannot be lesbianshttps://trib.al/myGdsWW
@ThomasSowell: “When people get used to preferential treatment, equal treatment seems like discrimination.”
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Proof of biblical kings of Israel, Judah deciphered on Jerusalem rock inscriptions Detailed inscriptions of 8th-century BCE Judean King Hezekiah discovered in ‘monumental’ archaeological discovery. https://www.jpost.com/archaeology/article-725074
Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong said just before the 2022 midterm elections that voter fraud and cheating will set up a very troubling 2023. Armstrong is predicting “a major turning point in January of 2023.” Armstrong explains, “The computer (Socrates program) is showing that January is going to be the major turning point for the entire year of 2023. . . . The currencies are rallying against the dollar, and that should go into early January and then after that, this thing looks like death warmed over. Perhaps it is the insanity of handing Patriot missiles over to Ukraine. I know Ukraine very well, and I am telling you they will use them offensively and not defensively. They will use them to attack Russia. Their whole objective is to expand the war.”
Armstrong says Biden Administration economy killing policies will, “. . .only increase inflation, and this is an endless nightmare. In all honesty, I hope the Republicans move to impeach Biden. I am not even sure Biden is aware of all the things taking place. It is the people behind him that are doing this. They are the ones writing these agendas, and they are a bunch of climate zealots, and they have no idea what they are doing. . . . This is getting to be insane, and I think you are going to see that January is going to be a very, very big turning point . . . with the Republicans in the House, they will probably start impeachment proceedings and a lot more investigations.”
Armstrong thinks, “The U.S. dollar will be going up . . . Gold and all other tangible assets will also go up in value” right along with “interest rates and inflation going up” too.
On the political front, Armstrong says keep your eyes on Arizona and the 2022 midterm election lawsuits going on now. Armstrong contends if widespread cheating is proven, “Basically, if it is exposed in one state, then people are going to assume election cheating is all over. It will be like a contagion or like the flu. If it’s in one place, everybody is going to get it. This is simply the way it is. There is no election that is never rigged. The question is if the rigging is good enough to actually change the outcome.”
With the possibility of a wider Ukraine war, world wide social unrest, extreme inflation and election fraud in 2022, how is America going to fare? Armstrong says, “Our computers say nobody will believe the elections. This is what our computers show. We are moving into total political chaos. This is the fall of the United States. Our Republican form of government does not work. It is too susceptible to bribery. . . . I would like the tree to fall in the right direction and we have a real actual democracy. We don’t live in democracies. That’s all propaganda. A democracy would be if we decide to go to war in Russia and Ukraine and not somebody in Biden’s Administration. The people never go for war, it’s always the leaders that go for war.”
There is much more in this in-depth 1-hour and 2-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, cycle expert and author of the new book “The Plot to Seize Russia,” for 12.17.22.
Armstrong’s book, “The Plot to Seize Russia,” is currently sold out but a second edition is being printed. There will be a book buying link posted soon on ArmstrongEconomics.com. So, be on the lookout.
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