DEC 20/GOLD PRICE UP $27.05 TO $1815.60//SILVER IS UP A FULL $1.05 TO $24.05//PLATINUM IS UP 26.75 TO $1012.45/PALLADIUM IS UP $62.60 TO $1739.65//COVID UPDATES RE CHINA/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//VACCINE INJURY//JAPAN FINALLY EXPANDS ITS YIELD CURVE AND WILL BUY UP TO 9 TRILLION YEN JAPANESE BONDS PER MONTH//THAT SET OF A FRENZY IN THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKET//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES: UKRAINE SHELLS MAJOR TOWN INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY AGAIN//TOM LUONGO A MUST READ//KARI LAKE WINS A COURT BATTLE AND NOW HER CASE WILL BE HEARD///SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 36 50 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 62 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 10 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 661 C JP MORGAN 28 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 800 C MAREX SPEC 8
TOTAL: 98 98 MONTH TO DATE: 20,271
COMEX//NOTICES FILED re JPMorgan 28/98
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC. CONTRACT: 98 NOTICES FOR 9800 OZ or .3048 TONNES
total notices so far: 20,271 contracts for 2,027100 oz (63.049 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 3609 for 18,045,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $27.05
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////HUGE CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES TONNES OUT OF THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $1.05
AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV THESE PAST 3 WEEKS! A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ FROM THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 509.90 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 155 CONTRACTS TO 123,876 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.13 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. OUR SHORTERS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.13 BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5 CONTRACTS. AS WELL WE HAD EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER OF 0 CONTRACTS. WE HAD VERY LITTLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS OF THEIR SHORTFALL. .WE PROBABLY HAD SMALL SHORT ADDITIONS WITH THE SMALL PRICE FALL OF THE SILVER. // OUR BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT CONTRACTS>>> SOME INCREASE OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ADDING TO THEIR POSITIONS CAUSING ADDITIONAL MISERY TO OUR SHORTERS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 23 .24. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S E.F.P.. JUMP TO LONDON of 5,000 OZ // V) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL +4
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DEC. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 days, total 8503 contracts: OR 42.515 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (531 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 42.515 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 42.515 MILLION OZ INITIAL( VERY SMALL)
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 155 DESPITE OUR $0.13 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 150 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 23.24 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY:S 5,000 E.F.P.. JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING 23.385 MILLION OZ + EFR = 33.885 MILLION OZ. .. WE HAVE A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 5 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 0.025 MILLION OZ.. THE SILVER SHORTS ARE NOW TRAPPED AS THEY ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN COVERING THOSE SHORTS.
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 176 CONTRACTS TO 424,801 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed 107 CONTRACTS.
.
THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC. AT 58.86 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY:S HUGE QUEUE JUMP of 59 contracts or 5900 oz//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 63.576 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS PRICE OF $2.10WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 280 OI CONTRACTS (0.8709 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 104 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 424,801
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 280 CONTRACTS WITH 176 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 104 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 280 CONTRACTS OR 0.8709 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (104 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (176) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 280 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS // CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS BUT THEY ALSO SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY PAPER SHORT. WE HAD FEW SHORT SPEC ADDITIONS/// // FEW NEWBIE SPEC ADDITIONS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC. AT 58.86 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP of 5900 oz// //NEW STANDING 63.757 TONNES///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :
33,233 CONTRACTS OR 3,323,300 OZ OR 103.38 TONNES 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2077 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:103.38 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 103.38/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 103.38 tonnes Initial//VERY SMALL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 155 CONTRACTS OI TO 123,801 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 150 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 150 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 150 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 155 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 150 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN AN TINY SIZED LOSS OF 5 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.025 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.13….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.35 PTS OR 1.07% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 258.01 OR 1.33% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 669.61 OR 2.46% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.66% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.9689//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9722// /Oil UP TO 76.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 80.10 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY SMALL SIZED 176 CONTRACTS UP TO 424,801 DESPITE OUR THE LOSS IN PRICE $2.10
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE -ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 104 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 FEB: 104 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 104 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 280 CONTRACTS IN THAT 104 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 176 CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $2.10. WE ARE WITNESSING FEW SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS TO THEIR SHORTFALL. BANKERS CONTINUE AS NET BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS AS THEY HAVE BEEN NET LONG FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WE ALSO HAD SOME NEWBIE SPECS ADDITIONS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING DEC (63.757)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL (TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR 591.535 TONNES)
Dec. 63.757 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $2.10) //// AND WERE ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 280 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES >. WE HAD A FEW NUMBER OF NEW SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS AND SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS.. // WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF .8709 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC. (54.57 TONNES), following our QUEUE jump of 5800 oz//new standing RISES to 63.757 tonnes…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.10
WE HAD – 107 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 280 CONTRACTS OR 28000 OZ OR 0.8709 TONNES
Estimated gold volume 191,984// poor//
final gold volumes/yesterday 90,621/ awful
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR DECEMBER 2022 COMEX GOLD //DEC 20
39,625.783 oz Brinks Manfra HSBC includes 1011 kilobars
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
211,457.127 oz BRINKS HSBC 1101 kilobars and 5476 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today
98 notice(s) 9800 OZ 0.3048 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
227 contracts 22,700 oz 0.7060 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
20,271 notices 2,027,100 63.048 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
customer withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Brinks: 8198.01 oz
ii) Out of Manfra: 6172.892 oz (192 kilobars)
Total withdrawals: 14,371.002 oz
total in tonnes: .446 tonnes
Adjustments: 2 dealer to customer account
a) Delaware; 1598.380 oz
b) Manfra 35,398.250 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER.
For the front month of DECEMBER we have an oi of 325 contracts having LOST 23 contracts
We had 81 contracts served on Monday, so we gained 58 contracts or an additional 5800 oz will stand for gold at the COMEX.
JANUARY LOST 15 contracts to stand at 1245
February LOST 3 contacts to 360,135
We had 98 notice(s) filed today for 9800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 98 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 28 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC. /2022. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,271 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (DEC. 325 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 98 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,049,800 OZ OR 63.757 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of DEC.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month:
No of notices filed so far (20,271 x 100 oz+ (325 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (98} x 100 oz} which equals 2,049,800 oz standing OR 63.757 TONNES in this active delivery month of DEC..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 63.757 TONNES (A POOR STANDING//COMEX RUNNING OUT OF PHYSICAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3609 x 5,000 oz = 18,045,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(1068) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC./2022 contract month: 3609 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC (1068 – number of notices served upon today (0) x 500 oz of silver standing for the DEC. contract month equates 23.385 million oz.. Also we have another criminal element to our silver oz standing, the use of Exchange for Risk/ Today an addition of 0 EFR contract transfers which are “Exchange for risk” settlements. I do not want to bore you but needless to say they are not physical transfers so are criminal in nature. There have been 2100 Exchange for Risk contracts settled during the first 3 days of the month for 10.500 million oz. Thus total delivery: 33.885 million oz.
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $7.30: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.12 TONNES
NOV 11/WITH GOLD UP $15.25//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.57 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD UP $40.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.38 TONNES
NOV 8/WITH GOLD UP $34.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//: INVENTORY RESTS AT 905.49 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.95: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.96. TONNES
NOV 4/WITH GOLD UP $44.45 TO $1673.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.48 TONNES FROMTHE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.59 TONNES.
NOV 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.30 TO $1628.85: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.07 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP 55 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.12 TONNES.
NOV 1/WITH GOLD UP $9.20 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES FORM THE GLD../INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.57 TONNES
OCT 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 922.59. TONNES//
OCT28/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 TONNES FROM THE GLD..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.20 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $11.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES
OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES
OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 912.14 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//
DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.923 MILLION OZ//
NOV 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 368,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.476 MILLION OZ//
NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.821 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.108 MILLION OZ//
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.751 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.929 MILLION OZ//
NOV 7/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.31 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.972 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.678 MILLION OZ//
NOV 3.WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.650 MILLION OZ//
NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 92,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.216 MILLION OZ//
NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 415,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.308 MILLION OZ
OCT 31: WITH SILVER FLAT: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .644 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.723 MILLION OZ//
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.367 MILLION OZ//
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE S: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.579 MILLION OZ FROMTHE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.091 MILLION OZ//
OCT 26/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.670 MILLION OZ./.
OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/
OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//
OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///
OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//
OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//
OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 509.90 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
end
LAWRIE WILLIAMS:
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Jan is 100% correct: the west sets the price and gold moves west to east
(Jan Nieuwenhuis)
Jan Nieuwenhuijs: The West-East ebb and flow of gold revisited
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-12-19 20:24Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jan Nieuwenhuijs Gainesville Coins, Lutz, Florida Thursday, December 16, 2022
Gold trade between West and East still follows a 90-year-old pattern.
The price of gold is mainly set by Western institutional supply and demand, while countries in the East take the other side of the trade.
As a result, above-ground gold moves from West to East and back in sync with the price of gold decreasing and increasing. Knowledge of this pattern is imperative to understanding the gold market and the price of gold. …
To understand what has happened and what is likely to happen, look at faith in the Fed and central banks in general…
A long-term chart suggests the real driver for gold is not inflation, not the dollar, not conspiracies, not China, and not oil, but rather faith in central banks.
Timeline Synopsis
Nixon closed the gold redemption window on August 15, 1971. The price of gold was $35 an ounce.
Faith in the dollar and central banks collapsed. Inflation soared.
Gold peaked at $850 per ounce on January 21 1980.
That’s when Fed Chair Paul Volcker jacked up interest rates to 20 percent to squash inflation.
Volcker was followed by Alan Greenspan, deemed the “Great Maestro”.
There was inflation every step of the way yet, gold fell from $850 an ounce to $250 an ounce proving gold is not an inflation hedge.
In the period between 1999 and 2002, Gordon Brown, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (roughly the equivalent of the US Secretary of Treasury), sold off 395 tons of gold, showing great faith in fiat currencies over gold. This event is known as “Brown’s Bottom”.
To bail out banks that invested in worthless DotCom companies and also lost then huge amounts of money on bad loans to South American countries Greenspan recklessly lowered interest rates and held them too low too long.
Gold took off thanks to Fed stimulus that culminated in a housing bubble and bust.
Gold, like everything else sold off hard in that bust. In March of 2009, the Fed suspended mark-to-market accounting of bank assets. The stock market took off and so did gold.
The Fed launched QE and so did the ECB. Credit stress in the EMU was also brewing. There was a huge risk of the Eurozone would break apart. Greece was the weak link but fears were of a cascade if Greece left.
On 26 July 2012, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, delivered a speech at a conference in London that brought a crucial turnaround in the euro crisis.
Mario Draghi said “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.’
What did Mario Draghi do? The answer is amusing. Absolutely nothing. However, eurozone bond yield collapsed, temporarily saving the day.
In 2016 the Fed and ECB were both engaging in more QE and sovereign yields went negative in Europe and Japan. Gold blasted to a new high, double topping in 2021.
In 2022 the Fed finally got around to hiking. Gold started dropping hard in 2022 despite the fact that year-over-year inflation topped 9 percent. Once again this shows gold is a poor inflation hedge.
The Fed has kept up a steady stream of hawkish talk and here we are.
Fed’s Resolve
It was time to go to the gold sidelines when it was clear the Fed was about to go on a major hiking cycle.
I made a mistake in not believing the Fed’s resolve. By the time I did, I felt there was not much more downside.
Gold is up nearly $200 an ounce from the lows.
The Fed Projects Interest Rates Higher for Longer at Least Through 2023
Gold doesn’t seem to believe that although it did react poorly on the announcement.
Q: Can gold and Powell both be right? A: Yes, in a way.
Gold also reacts to credit stress. It soared following Nixon shock, in the housing bubble, and with QE.
It plunged under Greenspan disinflation and after Mario Draghi made his “Whatever it Takes Speech”
Meanwhile, the Fed seems hell bent on breaking something and I suspect they will.
Gold Weekly Support Levels
It’s possible gold is reacting to pending credit stress in the US, EU, China, or elsewhere. It’s possible that the $200 bounce is purely technical off strong support at $1650.
$1450 is also strong support. 1550 has moderate support. There is pretty strong resistance in a range $1850 to $1900.
If you believe the Fed will produce some uneventful soft landing with steady disinflation, gold may not be where you want to be.
Meanwhile, talk on Twitterland is of a new gold repricing model, of oil priced in gold, of yuan backed by gold, of 9 year cycles, and central bank buying gold was bearish then and bullish now, with price targets of $9,000. All that discussion seems more than a bit silly to me.
Finally, the lead chart shows gold is in a major 10-year cup and handle setup, normally a bullish formation. And typically, the longer the consolidation, the bigger the move when it happens.
The other side of the coin, as addressed in my previous post, is that bullish formations and support levels often fail in bear markets while resistance and bearish formations fail in bull markets.
That’s both sides of the gold case in one post without all the hype.
What About the Dollar?
Don’t fall into the trap of thinking gold always moves with the dollar. With the US dollar index at 90, gold has been at $250, $1,400, $1,200, and $600.
On a short term basis gold tends to move with the dollar, but sometimes, even for long periods of time, it doesn’t.
And while price correlation tends to be present, magnitude isn’t which is how you get $1,400 gold and $400 gold with the dollar index in the same place.
* * *
5. Commodity commentaries//IRON ORE
END
6/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;
After weeks of speculation as to whether former billionaire, now hapless participant, Sam Bankman-Fried would be arrested for fraud surrounding FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange he ran into the ground, the mystery is over. The crypto exchange founder surrendered to Bahamian custody last week and is now awaiting extradition to the United States.
Following a grand jury indictment, Bankman-Fried was charged by the Southern District of New York, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on a variety of charges related to wire fraud, commodities fraud, securities fraud, money laundering, material misrepresentations, conspiracy to defraud the Federal Election Commission and to commit campaign finance violations.
The SEC alleges that Bankman-Fried orchestrated “a years-long fraud to conceal from FTX’s investors” the diversion of FTX customer funds to Alameda Research, a hedge fund owned by Bankman-Fried; the special treatment afforded to Alameda, such as unsecured and unlimited lines of credit; and FTX’s exposure to Alameda’s “significant holdings of overvalued, illiquid assets such as FTX-affiliated tokens.”
The SEC complaint also alleges that Bankman-Fried commingled FTX customers’ funds and used them to fund unrelated investments, purchase real estate, and make large political donations. The vast majority of these donations found their way into the coffers of the Democratic Party’s political machine, potentially impacting the outcome of 2022’s midterm elections. The CTFC filing further alleges that Bankman-Fried, FTX, and Alameda Research “caused the loss of over $8 billion in FTX customer deposits.”
The arrest brought to an ignoble end Bankman-Fried’s long-winded and pathetic apology tour, in which he claimed he had made mistakes of omission and negligence, for which he was deeply sorry, but had not committed fraud. The arrest came just one day before Bankman-Fried was to testify before the House Financial Services Committee, whose chair, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), had deemed it “imperative” that Bankman-Fried appear. Shockingly, Rep. Waters had previously been seen offering Bankman-Fried a loving air kiss and wave of the hand following congressional testimony, in apparent gratitude for donations made to the cause.
The timing of the arrest—i.e., one languid month after the fraud had been revealed and FTX had collapsed, but then suddenly one day before his scheduled testimony—raised many eyebrows. Why wouldn’t the Department of Justice, the SEC, and the CFTC have been curious to hear what Bankman-Fried had to say? Most prosecuting attorneys would salivate at the prospect of Bankman-Fried tightening the noose around his own neck with the verbal rush that was sure to come forth in this public venue, especially considering what he’d already said in disdain of his lawyers’ and others’ advice to please quit talking and stop making it worse for himself and everyone he had harmed.
Some sober-minded legal commentators have speculated that the timing of the arrest was intended to prevent Bankman-Fried from doing just that, potentially including an alleged criminal and conspiratorial web that had been spun with leading members of the Democratic Party, to which Bankman-Fried fraudulently donated the vast majority of the $40 million in political contributions he made in this last election cycle. To be clear, this $40 million now appears to have been FTX customers’ money, not Bankman-Fried’s.
Eyes on the SEC
The SEC, or at least its chairman, Gary Gensler, may have also sought to avoid too much fuss being made over the several times that Gensler and his staff had met in consultation with Bankman-Fried to plot how to bring crypto regulation under SEC authority, in exchange for giving FTX special treatment which would put FTX ahead of its competitors.
In an apparent attempt to shift the narrative, Chairman Gensler said, “Sam Bankman-Fried built a house of cards on a foundation of deception while telling investors that it was one of the safest buildings in crypto.” He went on to warn all crypto platforms, wherever they may be domiciled, that they must come into compliance with U.S. laws. Fair enough. FTX was a fraud, and other crypto platforms should take notice.
Yet U.S. House Financial Services Committee member Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) lays much of the responsibility at Chairman Gensler’s feet, noting, “We need to get to the bottom of this. We need to understand why Gary Gensler and the SEC were not doing their job. We need to understand how this was allowed to get to the point where people and their savings are getting hurt. That’s exactly what the regulator’s supposed to be taking care of.”
The SEC has some explaining to do, true, but so do the numerous political actors within the Democratic Party who received and used stolen funds. A few have already sought to return the money or to donate it to charity. But these examples remain rare. Most recipients have remained silent amid the scandal, perhaps hoping it will all go away, forgotten amid some newer crisis or media’s and the public’s attention shifting elsewhere.
While we don’t yet have enough detailed information to run this to ground, the fraud which FTX appears to have perpetrated reaches into the highest orders of political power in this country. The scandal of FTX is an early domino to topple in what may be a long line of downfall, an exposure which likely is evidence of the vast corruption that may characterize the current political environment.
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//
TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.9689
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9722
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.35 PTS OR 1.07%
HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 258.01 OR 1.33%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 669.61 PTS OR 2.46%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.69 Euro RISES TO 106.33 UP 21 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.395!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 132,53/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy the 9 TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.269%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.429%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.365…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.402//
3j Gold at $1801.60//silver at: 23.62 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 20/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 68.92//
3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and 80 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.53
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9267–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9854 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.651% UP 7 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.708% UP 9 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,66…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.585 % UP 11 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Rebound From Post BOJ Shock As Dollar Tumbles
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 08:08 AM
After last week’s CPI and FOMC decision, it was supposed to be smooth sailing into the illiquid, year-end waters as trading desks closed down for the year, and where among those few traders left some expected a Santa rally while others kept pressing their shorts. The BOJ – which was badly been lagging all of its central bank peers in tightening financial conditions – however had other plans, and on Tuesday morning Japan’s central bank shocked the world when it announced it would widen the Yield Control Curve band on the 10Y Treasury from 0.25% to 0.50% on either side, a move which had been viewed as a “when not if” – as markets knew the BoJ would eventually have to realign the “kinked” 10Y point with the rest of JGB curve and fundamentals…
… and begin a gradual policy alignment with rest of world’s already robust tightening, as they had instead continued to ease throughout ‘22 – but this was not seen as today’s business and virtually everyone expected this move to come after the Kuroda term ended in April ‘23, with most expecting a “phase-in” executed in smaller increments over time. So the news that the yield on Japan’s 10Y would be allowed to double from 0.25% to 0.50% came as a shock and sparked cross-asset contagion across the world, sending futures tumbling and bond yields soaring at least initially and briefly halted Japans’ treasury futures.
“Tighter BoJ policy would remove one of the last global anchors that’s helped to keep borrowing costs at low levels more broadly,”Deutsche Bank analysts told clients, noting the BOJ move had come as markets were “already reeling” from the ECB and Fed’s hawkishness last week.
BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda later reiterated at a press briefing that the widening of the yield band was aimed at improving market functioning and smoothing out a distorted yield curve. Still, the abrupt decision risks eroding confidence in the central bank’s messaging after the governor and other board members had repeatedly said a widening of the range would be tantamount to raising interest rates.
As attention turned away from the surge in yields -to the plunge in the dollar, US stock-index futures managed to recover most of their earlier losses, and as of 730am ET, contracts on the S&P 500 were flat while Nasdaq 100 futures slightly underperformed, falling 0.2% as the yield on 10-year Treasuries extended gains.
Contracts on the S&P 500 had slumped as much as 1.1% earlier after the BOJ’s move triggered concerns among investors already worried about the growing chorus of hawkish central banks: “There are some investors that are doing cross assets, and so if the yen moves — if the foreign exchange moves a lot — they automatically readjust” their equity futures positions, said Michael Makdad, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Tokyo.
But the move in stocks was actually relatively modest: the move in JGBs was more powerful, as the yield on 10Y bonds surged to the highest level since 2015…
… and dragged US TSYs along with it amid fears Japanese would be less willing to buy US paper (spoiler alert: the opposite will happen as local pensions start factoring in capital losses amid future YCC expansions) while the biggest fireworks took place in the world of FX, however, where the dollar tumbled as the yen rose: at one point the USDJPY plunged all the way down to 132.0 a 500+ pip move from where the pair was pre-BOJ, and the second biggest move in the past year, lagging only behind the shock US CPI miss repricing in November.
Among US premarket moves, Lucid Group advanced after the company said it has completed its stock sale program and successfully raised about $1.5 billion. Here are some of the biggest US movers today:
Verona Pharma (VRNA US) shares surge as much as 162% in US premarket trading after the drug developer achieved positive results in the Phase 3 ENHANCE-1 trial evaluating nebulized ensifentrine for the maintenance treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rise as Bitcoin rebounds after falling to the lowest level this month as worries over the path of central bank policy damped moves across risky assets. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) advances 1.6%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +0.8%, Silvergate (SI US) +1.9%
MKS Instruments (MKSI US) stock rises 1.1% on low volumes after it was upgraded to overweight from sector weight at KeyBanc, with the broker saying the company’s strong competitive position should drive growth in semiconductor and advanced packaging.
Heico (HEI US) shares could be in focus as the aerospace parts manufacturer reported earnings per share for the fourth quarter that matched the average analyst estimate, but did not provide guidance for 2023.
Keep an eye on Conagra Brands (CAG US) stock as Morgan Stanley upgraded it to overweight, expecting the packaged-food sector to maintain its relative outperformance through 2023 and also raising J M Smucker (SJM US) to equal-weight.
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM US) is upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO, which said that the risk/reward on the stock now seems skewed to the upside.
The insurance lead generation sector is JPMorgan’s favorite across small and mid-cap internet stocks for 2023, with analysts upgrading MediaAlpha (MAX US) to overweight from neutral, and EverQuote (EVER US) to overweight from underweight, while downgrading some advertising-exposed stocks.
Even before the BOJ, US stocks dropped for a fourth session on Monday as traders recoiled at the growing possibility that the Fed will push the US economy into a painful recession after central bank officials vowed to keep raising rates until they’re confident inflation is coming down meaningfully. The S&P 500 closed at its lowest level in more than a month, dragged by declines in big-tech firms including Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.com. As Bloomberg points out, US tech stocks are facing a big technical trial this week, with the Nasdaq 100 Index testing a long-term uptrend in place since 2008, based on a logarithmic scale and weekly data.
“The Fed now knows that the forward-looking indicators are starting to move in their favor,” Hugh Gimber, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television. “They just want to see that coming through in hard data now and hence they want another few months just to get a clearer sense of the picture, but the direction of travel is much more positive.” Gimber expects a half-point hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in February, followed by a raise of 25 basis points in March.
European stocks also erased earlier losses, with the Stoxx 600 trading down -0.20% after tumbling more than 1% earlier. European real estate stocks underperformed; the Stoxx 600 Real Estate subindex drops 3.6% at 9:36 a.m. CET. Biggest laggards include Aroundtown -9.1%, Wihlborgs -4.5%, Balder -4.4%, LEG Immobilien -4.2%, Vonovia -4%, SBB -3.8%. Other notable European movers include:
Elior shares rise as much as 8.8% after the French caterer said it would buy Derichebourg Multiservices division by issuing new stock. The analysts noted that the equity-financed deal would add scale, boost margins and accelerate the company’s deleveraging.
Hugo Boss shares rise as much as 6% after Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Kuhn raised the recommendation to buy from hold.
Engie shares slumped as much as 6.9% after the French utility said it may take a hit of up to €5.7 billion ($6.1 billion) through next year from windfall taxes on soaring power sales and Belgium’s requirements for nuclear plant dismantling.
Credit Suisse shares decline as much as 3.9% as both Citi and RBC say the troubled lender needs to give greater visibility on its planned strategic overhaul for the stock to recover.
Petrofac shares drop as much as 10% to fresh record low as the energy infrastructure supplier predicts a full-year Ebit loss.
European real estate stocks underperformed on Tuesday after a hawkish move from the Bank of Japan, which adjusted its yield curve control program. Aroundtown is the sector’s biggest decliner, falling as much as 11%, after being downgraded to hold from buy at Berenberg.
Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 5.5% in Frankfurt, extending Monday’s losses, after German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht set a deadline for the industry to fix defective infantry vehicles.
Kinepolis shares drop as much as 6.6%, the most in more than a month, after Berenberg lowers its price target and adopts a “more cautious” stance over its FY23/24 estimates.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as Japanese shares tumbled following a surprise policy tweak by the central bank, while China’s Covid disruptions also hurt sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.1% before mostly trimming losses. The Nikkei 225 Index slumped 2.5% as the Bank of Japan raised the upper band limit of its yield curve control program, giving the yen a boost. Financial shares in the nation surged while tech and auto stocks slumped in Tokyo. “Usually the weak yen is good for the stock market earnings, and now if you have a stronger yen, it’s going to be a concern for the companies that were doing so well, mainly the exporters and maybe tourism,” said Peter Tasker, co-founder and strategist at Arcus Investment
“The whole Asian region is dragged down by BOJ’s new policy, which is triggering the short covering of yen,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. “Those who borrow yen and invest in other securities” need to unwind positions, he added. Stocks in China and Hong Kong fell for the second day as the reopening rally continued to cool. China reported a pickup in Covid deaths, with analysts expecting the actual toll to be much worse than the official tally. Despite the dismantling of heavy Covid restrictions, activity in key cities has slowed as infections spike, diminishing the economic boost from a reopening. Investors are contending with slowdown risks in the region in 2023, with China’s path to reopening facing headwinds and doubts about the Fed’s ability to tackle inflation without pushing the US economy into a recession
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was set a second day of losses as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
The yen rose by as much as 3.7%, to a four-month high of 132.06 per dollar, while the benchmark 10-year yield surged to 0.444%, the highest since 2015. The BOJ said it will now allow Japan’s 10-year bond yields to rise to around 0.5%, up from the previous limit of 0.25%; details here
Cross sales into yen hit the Aussie and kiwi with the latter already weakened after data showed business confidence in the nation slumped to a record low. Both Australia’s and New Zealand’s bonds also fell
The yuan flipped to a gain as the dollar weakened following the Bank of Japan’s hawkish shift. China’s loan prime rates were kept on hold, as expected.
In rates, Treasuries, bunds and gilts yields are off highs reached after BOJ’s yield pivot, though still up about 8 basis points each at the 10-year mark. Treasury futures off worst levels of the day, recouping a portion of losses into early US session after an aggressive cheapening move sparked by Bank of Japan widens the trading band on 10-year bond yields. Into peak selloff 10-year yields topped through 3.70% and onto cheapest levels since Nov. 30, before settling around 3.65% into the US session; the 2s10s spread remains wider by 5bp on the day after reaching steepest since Nov. 16. On outright basis Treasury yields remain cheaper by 1bp to 8.5bp across the curve in a bear steepening move, following wider selloff across JGBs where 10- year yields closed at 0.399% and 2s10s curve steepened 13bp on the day
In commodities, WTI trades within Monday’s range, adding 1.1% to near $75.98. Most base metals trade in the green. Spot gold rises roughly $19 to trade near $1,806/oz.
In crypto, Bitcoin is firmer to the tune of 1.0%, though once again remains within relatively narrow ranges.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include German PPI for November, US housing starts and building permits for November, and the European Commission’s advance December reading on consumer confidence for the Euro Area. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Kazimir and Muller. Finally, earnings releases include Nike.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,842.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 424.16
MXAP little changed at 155.50
MXAPJ down 1.0% to 502.25
Nikkei down 2.5% to 26,568.03
Topix down 1.5% to 1,905.59
Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 19,094.80
Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,073.77
Sensex down 0.2% to 61,653.10
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 7,024.27
Kospi down 0.8% to 2,333.29
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.27%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0632
Brent Futures up 0.6% to $80.29/bbl
Gold spot up 0.9% to $1,804.50
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.73% to 103.96
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
The BOJ’s surprise policy shift is sending shock waves through global markets that may just be getting started, as the developed world’s last holdout for rock-bottom interest rates inches toward policy normalization
The BOJ’s latest policy shock is cementing the central bank’s reputation for using the element of surprise to achieve its strategic goals
At least three funds stand to benefit from Japan’s policy move: UBS Asset Management, Schroders Plc and BlueBay Asset Management
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the euro-zone economy is unlikely to experience a deep slump as interest rates are lifted to tackle soaring inflation
The ECB remains “a long way” from achieving its goal of inflation of 2% over the medium term, according to Governing Council Member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa emerged from a ruling party electoral conference with a stronger mandate, yet still has to overcome a series of political hurdles to tackle a daunting economic to-do list
Hong Kong will further ease social distancing measures, including rules on banquets, ahead of a trip by the city’s leader to Beijing
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks traded lower across the board with the broader risk profile hit by the BoJ’s unexpected tweak to its Yield Curve Control. Nikkei 225 fell over 2.5% as it reacted to the BoJ’s move, with the index briefly dipping under 26,500, although bank stocks soared. ASX 200 was dragged lower by its Tech and IT sectors whilst Banks and Utilities were the better performers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat tone across the equity market, with the former seeing its housing stocks slip after the PBoC opted to maintain its 5yr LPR unchanged vs some expectations for a cut.
Top Asian News
RBA Minutes (Dec): Board considered several options for the cash rate decision at the December meeting: a 50bps increase; a 25bps increase; or no change in the cash; members also noted the importance of acting consistently. The Board did not rule out returning to larger increases if the situation warranted. Click here for the detailed headline
PBoC maintained the 1yr and 5yr Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) at 3.65% and 4.30% respectively, as expected, according to Bloomberg.
BoK Governor said the board believes it is premature to cut rates. BoK said consumer inflation is to gradually slow after hovering around 5% for some time; uncertainty is high over how swiftly consumer inflation will slow, according to Reuters. BoK Governor said the risk of USD/KRW rate surging at an unusual pace has decreased.
China reports five COVID-related deaths in the mainland on Dec 19 vs two a day earlier, according to Reuters.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee said Hong Kong will further ease social distancing measures, according to Bloomberg; subsequently, Hong Kong Health Authorities are to drop the rapid antigen COVID test requirement to enter bars/nightclubs from Thursday, no capacity limit on such venues.
Japan is reportedly mulling issuing JPY 500bln of green transformation economic transition bonds (GX bonds) in FY23, according to Japanese press Yomiuri.
Japanese government reportedly looking to issue around JPY 35.5tln of new JGBs for FY23/24, according to Reuters sources.
PBoC injected CNY 5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 141bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15%; daily net injection CNY 144bln.
European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%, as the complex lifts off post-BoJ lows in limited newsflow. US futures are moving in tandem with the above, ES -0.1%, ahead of a handful of stateside data prints. JPMorgan lowers its Apple (AAPL) iPhone volume forecasts for the December quarter to around 70mln (prev. forecast ~74mln).
Top European News
ECB’s Kazimir Says Stable Pace of Tightening Should Continue
Spain Court Foils Sánchez Bid to Name Judges in Power Clash
Engie Drops as Taxes, Nuclear Rules Take Multibillion Euro Bite
Swedish Property Stocks End Brutal 2022 With Tough Reset Ahead
Germany Cuts Russian Share in Gas Use by More Than Half in 2022
FX
JPY is the standout outperformer after the BoJ widened the 10yr yield band, sending USD/JPY to a test of 132.00 vs 137.00+ initial levels.
Amidst this, the DXY has been pushed below 104.00 to the modest benefit of G10 peers across the board.
Though, the read across from the USD’s downside to peers is being hampered somewhat by the pronounced action in JPY-crosses.
Elsewhere, antipodeans are the incremental laggards following the ANZ survey and post-RBA minutes, which has a dovish tilt.
PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9861 vs exp. 6.9862 (prev. 6.9746)
Fixed Income
Benchmarks have bounced from BoJ induced worst levels with modest assistance from German PPI and UK supply.
However, core debt is lower by around 100 ticks for Bunds and Gilts, with the German 10yr approaching 2.3% at best.
Stateside, USTs are directionally in-fitting though magnitudes are slightly more contained ahead of the US session, yields bid across the curve and bear-steepening.
Geopolitics
North Korea said Japan’s counterattack capabilities are effectively pre-emptive strike capabilities; said Japan’s new security strategy is bringing security crisis in the region. North Korea said it has the right to take “decisive” military measures to protect its rights in response to the changing security environment, via KCNA.
BOJ
STATEMENT
BoJ unexpectedly tweaked its Yield Curve Control (YCC) in which it widened the 10yr yield band to +/-0.5% (prev. +/-0.25%) and unexpectedly announced it is to increase bond purchases to JPY 9tln/m (prev. JPY 7.3tln/m) in Q1. The BoJ kept its rate unchanged at -0.10% and maintained 10yr JGB yield target of around 0% as expected. The decision on the YCC was unanimous. The adjustment is intended to “improve market functioning and encourage a smoother formation of the entire yield curve while maintaining accommodative financial conditions,” the central bank said. BoJ said it is to make nimble responses for each maturity by increasing the amount of purchases even more and conducting fixed-rate purchases operations when deemed necessary. BoJ maintained its rate guidance. Click here for the detailed headline
GOVERNOR KURODA
YCC:
Market functionality was decreasing. Domestic market has been hit by volatility abroad. Decision was made today as deteriorating market functions could threaten corporate financing.
Decision is not an exit of YCC or a change in policy, appropriate to continue easing policy.
There is no need to further expanding the allowance band, not likely that the market calls for another increase of the yield cap maximum limit.
Broader Policy:
It is too early to debate the exit to current monetary policy; today’s decision is not a rate hike.
Won’t hesitate to ease monetary policy further if necessary.
No intention to hike rates or tighten policy. Not thinking about revising the 2013 gov’t-BoJ joint statement.
OTHER
BoJ announced an unscheduled bond operation: BoJ offered to buy JPY 100bln in up to 1-3yr JGBs, JPY 100bln in 3-5yr JGBs, JPY 300bln in 5-10yr JGBs and JPY 100bln in 10-25yr, according to Reuters. BoJ to conduct unlimited bond buying in the 1-5yr tenors, according to Bloomberg.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said it is not true that the government and the BoJ have decided on a policy to revise its joint statement, according to Reuters.
Japanese Economy, Trade, and Industry Ministry Nishimura said it is important to continue carrying out economic revitalisation based on the joint statement with the BoJ, according to Reuters.
Japan Securities Clearing Corporation has issued an emergency margin call re. JGB futures.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks slipping in tandem with broader sentiment initially and in the hours since have pared this pressure and are now posting upside just shy of USD 1.0/bbl.
Currently, Dutch TTF Jan’23 remains under modest pressure, but is yet to slip below the EUR 100/MWh mark.
Germany’s BDEW (energy industry association) says it is concerned about the EU gas price cap, it needs monitoring and adjusting if results in too little gas reaching Europe.
The yellow metal is a handful of ounces above the USD 1800/oz handle while base metals are firmer in action that is for the most part in-fitting with the above risk tone/dynamics.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Nov. Building Permits MoM, est. -2.1%, prior -2.4%, revised -3.3%
08:30: Nov. Building Permits, est. 1.48m, prior 1.53m, revised 1.51m
08:30: Nov. Housing Starts MoM, est. -1.8%, prior -4.2%
08:30: Nov. Housing Starts, est. 1.4m, prior 1.43m
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
We go to press this morning amidst big moves in global markets overnight, since the Bank of Japan have decided to adjust their yield-curve-control policy, which is widely seen as the beginning of a potential end to their ultra-loose monetary policy. That policy has made them a big outlier compared to other central banks this year, having maintained rates at the zero lower bound whilst others embarked on their biggest tightening cycle in a generation. Indeed, it’s important not to underestimate the impact this could have, because tighter BoJ policy would remove one of the last global anchors that’s helped to keep borrowing costs at low levels more broadly.
In terms of the policy shift, the BoJ announced in a surprise move that Japan’s 10yr yield would now be able to rise to around 0.5%, having been limited to 0.25% previously. In turn, that led to a massive slump in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei down by -2.88% this morning, and those moves lower have been echoed more broadly. Indeed, not only are other indices in Asia pointing lower, including the CSI 300 (-1.64%), the Shanghai Comp (-1.03%), the Hang Seng (-2.19%) and the Kospi (-1.10%), but futures on the S&P 500 are currently down -1.07%, even after a run of 4 consecutive declines for the index already. The one big exception to this pattern of equity losses were bank stocks, with those in the Nikkei surging +4.96% this morning given the potential move away from ultra-low borrowing costs.
Unsurprisingly, Japanese government bond yields have surged on the back of the announcement, with the 10yr yield up +15.5bps this morning to 0.41% after trading around 0.25% for months. But the impact hasn’t been confined there either, with Australian 10yr yields up +19.5bps this morning, and those on US 10yr Treasuries up +8.1bps to 3.666%. In the meantime, the yen has strengthened massively, gaining +2.75% against the US Dollar this morning to 133.22 per dollar.
Even before the BoJ’s overnight announcement, markets had already got the week off to a rough start yesterday, with the bond selloff showing no sign of letting up whilst the S&P 500 (-0.90%) lost ground for a fourth day running. The moves were very similar to last week’s in many respects, with investors continuing to grapple with the prospect that central banks will keep hiking rates into 2023, not least after the hawkish tone from their recent meetings. That theme is only going to be bolstered by the BoJ’s move, which came as a big surprise to markets that were already reeling from the ECB and Fed’s hawkishness last week.
Whilst many investors are still expecting we could get a dovish pivot later in 2023, markets aren’t banking on that for now, with sovereign bonds seeing fresh losses on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. In terms of the daily moves, yields did come off their highs by the end of the session in Europe, but those on 10yr bunds (+5.1bps), OATs (+4.4bps) and BTPs (+8.5bps) were still noticeably higher by the close. We also saw another round of milestones at the front-end of the curve as well, since yields on 2yr German and French debt both hit their highest levels since 2008. That followed further hawkish rhetoric from ECB speakers over the last 24 hours, with a nod to rate hikes continuing at a 50bps pace. For instance, Vice President de Guindos said that they had “to take additional measures to increase interest rates at a speed similar to that of this last 50 basis-point increase”. In the meantime, Lithuania’s Simkus said he had “no doubt” there’d be another 50bp move in February, and Slovakia’s Kazimir said that “we need to increase the base interest rate significantly higher than today.”
Whilst the continued bond selloff very much echoed last week, one key difference yesterday was that Eurozone bonds were no longer underperforming their international counterparts. For instance, yields on 10yr Treasuries saw a much larger increase on the day of +10.2bps to 3.585%, before their latest moves to 3.666% overnight. Higher real yields led that move yesterday, with the 10yr real yield up +7.2bps to 1.42%, followed by a further move to 1.45% this morning meaning that it’s now risen by over +40bps since its recent closing low earlier this month. And over in the UK, yields saw an even larger increase yesterday, with 10yr gilt yields up +17.3bps on the day to 3.50%. Those moves came as investors moved to price in a slightly more hawkish path for central bank policy rates, with pricing for the Fed’s rate by end-2023 up +5.5bps on the day to 4.413%.
This backdrop of growing concern about the rates outlook proved further bad news for equities, and the S&P 500 (-0.90%) fell to its lowest level in nearly 6 weeks. That’s its 4th consecutive decline, and means that in less than a week since the S&P briefly surged after the downside CPI surprise, the index has now lost -6.91% since its intraday peak. In terms of the drivers, tech stocks were a major contributor, with the NASDAQ (-1.49%) and the FANG+ index (-2.02%) seeing sizeable declines, although the Dow Jones didn’t fare so badly with a -0.49% decline. Europe was also a relative outperformer, with the STOXX 600 seeing a modest +0.27% gain after its -3.28% decline last week.
Elsewhere yesterday, we heard that EU member states had reached a deal to cap gas prices at €180 per megawatt-hour. It’ll apply for a year starting February 15, and follows lengthy negotiations on where the cap should be, with an earlier proposal from the Commission suggesting a €275/MWh level. The cap will also only apply if the difference with global liquefied natural gas prices is bigger than €35/MWh. Against this backdrop, European natural gas futures were down -5.98% yesterday to €109 per megawatt-hour.
On the data side yesterday, we got further evidence that the European economy was outperforming expectations this winter, with the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany rising to 88.6 (vs. 87.5 expected), marking its highest level in 4 months. However in the US, the NAHB’s latest housing market index showed that the housing market was continuing to struggle, with a decline in December to 31 (vs. 34 expected). With the exception of April 2020, that’s the index’s lowest reading in over a decade, and means that it’s fallen in every single month over 2022.
Finally, the US Congress are focusing on concluding their 2023 fiscal year omnibus budget package, ahead of the government funding deadline at the end of the week. Senate Minority Leader McConnell said that he expects to review the full text soon and signalled that there would be ample GOP support, indicating there would not be a period of protracted debate with the White House. The provisions are expected to total close to $1.7tr, and include funding for border security, state aid for natural disasters, a realigning of pandemic-era programs, and aid to Ukraine amongst a host of other initiatives and programs. Notably, it does not appear that there will be an increase to the debt ceiling in this agreement, so that’s another event that looks as though it could get some attention in 2023, particularly given the Republicans will control the House of Representatives next year.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include German PPI for November, US housing starts and building permits for November, and the European Commission’s advance December reading on consumer confidence for the Euro Area. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Kazimir and Muller. Finally, earnings releases include Nike.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
JPY outperforms while core debt slumps post-BoJ’s unexpected action – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 06:38 AM
European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%, as the complex lifts off post-BoJ lows in limited newsflow.
JPY is the standout outperformer after the BoJ widened the 10yr yield band, sending USD/JPY to a test of 132.00 vs 137.00+ initial levels.
DXY has been pushed below 104.00 to the modest benefit of G10 peers across the board; though, JPY-cross action is limiting this.
Core debt has bounced from worst levels, though remains heavily hampered with yields bid and the curve steepening.
Crude has recovered from its initial downside, currently posting modest upside; Dutch TTF cools as we await ICE’s review
Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, US Building Permits, EZ Consumer Confidence.
Benchmarks have bounced from BoJ induced worst levels with modest assistance from German PPI and UK supply.
However, core debt is lower by around 100 ticks for Bunds and Gilts, with the German 10yr approaching 2.3% at best.
Stateside, USTs are directionally in-fitting though magnitudes are slightly more contained ahead of the US session, yields bid across the curve and bear-steepening.
Crude benchmarks slipping in tandem with broader sentiment initially and in the hours since have pared this pressure and are now posting upside just shy of USD 1.0/bbl.
Currently, Dutch TTF Jan’23 remains under modest pressure, but is yet to slip below the EUR 100/MWh mark.
Germany’s BDEW (energy industry association) says it is concerned about the EU gas price cap, it needs monitoring and adjusting if results in too little gas reaching Europe.
The yellow metal is a handful of ounces above the USD 1800/oz handle while base metals are firmer in action that is for the most part in-fitting with the above risk tone/dynamics.
ECB’s Villeroy says France should be able to avoid a recession, any recession would be temporary.
ECB’s Vasle says the economic slowdown won’t notably ease inflation.
ECB’s Muller says rate hikes so far are not enough; hard to say what the terminal rate should be.
ECB’s Kazimir says monetary policy should tighten at a stable pace
NOTABLE DATA
German Producer Prices YY (Nov) 28.2% vs. Exp. 30.6% (Prev. 34.5%); MM (Nov) -3.9% vs. Exp. -2.5% (Prev. -4.2%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Steel Dynamics (STLD) is to replace ABIOMED (ABMD) in the S&P 500 effective prior to the market open on December 22nd, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
US Congress’ USD 1.7tln FY23 funding bill has been introduced; 885bln for defense, 772bln for non-defense discretionary spending; lawmakers incl. Boeing (BA) 737 Max certification extension and USD 2bln for Taiwan weapons purchases within the proposed funding bill.
6.3 magnitude earthquake occurs in the northern California regions, via USGS.
GEOPOLITICS
North Korea said Japan’s counterattack capabilities are effectively pre-emptive strike capabilities; said Japan’s new security strategy is bringing security crisis in the region. North Korea said it has the right to take “decisive” military measures to protect its rights in response to the changing security environment, via KCNA.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is firmer to the tune of 1.0%, though once again remains within relatively narrow ranges.
APAC TRADE
BOJ
STATEMENT
BoJ unexpectedly tweaked its Yield Curve Control (YCC) in which it widened the 10yr yield band to +/-0.5% (prev. +/-0.25%) and unexpectedly announced it is to increase bond purchases to JPY 9tln/m (prev. JPY 7.3tln/m) in Q1. The BoJ kept its rate unchanged at -0.10% and maintained 10yr JGB yield target of around 0% as expected. The decision on the YCC was unanimous. The adjustment is intended to “improve market functioning and encourage a smoother formation of the entire yield curve while maintaining accommodative financial conditions,” the central bank said. BoJ said it is to make nimble responses for each maturity by increasing the amount of purchases even more and conducting fixed-rate purchases operations when deemed necessary. BoJ maintained its rate guidance. Click here for the detailed headline
GOVERNOR KURODA
YCC:
Market functionality was decreasing. Domestic market has been hit by volatility abroad. Decision was made today as deteriorating market functions could threaten corporate financing.
Decision is not an exit of YCC or a change in policy, appropriate to continue easing policy.
There is no need to further expanding the allowance band, not likely that the market calls for another increase of the yield cap maximum limit.
Broader Policy:
It is too early to debate the exit to current monetary policy; today’s decision is not a rate hike.
Won’t hesitate to ease monetary policy further if necessary.
No intention to hike rates or tighten policy. Not thinking about revising the 2013 gov’t-BoJ joint statement.
OTHER
BoJ announced an unscheduled bond operation: BoJ offered to buy JPY 100bln in up to 1-3yr JGBs, JPY 100bln in 3-5yr JGBs, JPY 300bln in 5-10yr JGBs and JPY 100bln in 10-25yr, according to Reuters. BoJ to conduct unlimited bond buying in the 1-5yr tenors, according to Bloomberg.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said it is not true that the government and the BoJ have decided on a policy to revise its joint statement, according to Reuters.
Japanese Economy, Trade, and Industry Ministry Nishimura said it is important to continue carrying out economic revitalisation based on the joint statement with the BoJ, according to Reuters.
Japan Securities Clearing Corporation has issued an emergency margin call re. JGB futures.
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded lower across the board with the broader risk profile hit by the BoJ’s unexpected tweak to its Yield Curve Control.
Nikkei 225 fell over 2.5% as it reacted to the BoJ’s move, with the index briefly dipping under 26,500, although bank stocks soared.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by its Tech and IT sectors whilst Banks and Utilities were the better performers.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat tone across the equity market, with the former seeing its housing stocks slip after the PBoC opted to maintain its 5yr LPR unchanged vs some expectations for a cut.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
RBA Minutes (Dec): Board considered several options for the cash rate decision at the December meeting: a 50bps increase; a 25bps increase; or no change in the cash; members also noted the importance of acting consistently. The Board did not rule out returning to larger increases if the situation warranted. Click here for the detailed headline
PBoC maintained the 1yr and 5yr Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) at 3.65% and 4.30% respectively, as expected, according to Bloomberg.
BoK Governor said the board believes it is premature to cut rates. BoK said consumer inflation is to gradually slow after hovering around 5% for some time; uncertainty is high over how swiftly consumer inflation will slow, according to Reuters. BoK Governor said the risk of USD/KRW rate surging at an unusual pace has decreased.
China reports five COVID-related deaths in the mainland on Dec 19 vs two a day earlier, according to Reuters.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee said Hong Kong will further ease social distancing measures, according to Bloomberg; subsequently, Hong Kong Health Authorities are to drop the rapid antigen COVID test requirement to enter bars/nightclubs from Thursday, no capacity limit on such venues.
Japan is reportedly mulling issuing JPY 500bln of green transformation economic transition bonds (GX bonds) in FY23, according to Japanese press Yomiuri.
Japanese government reportedly looking to issue around JPY 35.5tln of new JGBs for FY23/24, according to Reuters sources.
PBoC injected CNY 5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 141bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15%; daily net injection CNY 144bln.
DATA RECAP
New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Dec) -70.2% (Prev. -57.1%); Own Activity (Dec) -25.6% (Prev. -13.7%)
1.c TUESDAY//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.35 PTS OR 1.07% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 258.01 OR 1.33% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 669.61 OR 2.46% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.66% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.9689//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9722// /Oil UP TO 76.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 80.10 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED. ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
end
2B JAPAN
Japan did not pivot. It will buy an increasing amount of Japanese 10 yr bonds that which it already owns greater than 50% of the entire issue.
It will tighten by raising the rate to .5% (but also buy more 9 trillion yen worth/month= QE)
Yields across the globe rose, japanese stock market rose//stock markets around the globe fell.
please read….
BoJ Sparks Market Chaos With Huge ‘Yield Curve Control’ Adjustment
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 10:23 PM
The Bank of Japan shocked markets tonight.
After leaving policy rates unchanged, the ‘easiest’ bank in the world decided to dramatically modify its so-called Yield Curve Control framework and increase the quantity of government bonds it will buy each month (while the rest of the world is doing the opposite).
The increase in range is huge (from -0.5% to +0.5% in yields). Thus, realistically this is a tightening policy move allowing long-rates to rise from 25bps (the prior YCC limit) to 50bps (the current YCC limit)…
The YCC adjustment is being reported as a mechanism to encourage better functioning in the bond market (where barely a bond changes hands nowadays). The BOJ says it made the change as:
“the functioning of bond markets has deteriorated, particularly in terms of relative relationships among interest rates of bonds with different maturities and arbitrage relationships between spot and future markets… If these market conditions persists, this could have a negative impact on financial conditions.”
The BoJ also increased its bond purchases to JPY9 trillion per month for January through March.
As one might expect, Cash JGBs didn’t budge on the news.
Interestingly, despite the ‘easing’ implied by the JGB buying increase, the JPY strengthened against the dollar (because with a wider/higher band for the 10Y yield, theoretically the BoJ will have to buy fewer bonds to keep it within their limit). The JPY is now at its strongest since August.
Until, of course the next depressionary collapse.
So the bottom line is that The BoJ will allow 10Y to rise to 0.50% from 0.25% but in order to make the transition as painless as possible, it will increase bond purchases to Y9 Trillion from Y7.3 Trillion per month.
This will basically remove the YCC kink in the JGB yield curve…
And sure enough, 10Y JGB yields have instantly exploded higher to their highest since 2015…
JGB Futures trading has been halted on the Osaka Exchange.
Japanese bank stocks are soaring on the increased outlook for their NIMs…
Capital Economics offers some clarifications as traders comes to terms with WTF Kuroda just did…
There was nothing in the statement that would suggest that this decision heralds a wholesale tightening of monetary policy.
For one thing, the bank’s assessment of current economic conditions as well as its outlook over coming quarters was little changed from the October meeting.
If anything, the downgrade to the bank’s view on external demand suggests that it is getting increasingly worried about the strength of the recovery.
Most importantly, the bank reiterated that it expects short-term and long-term policy rates to remain at their present or lower levels.
Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank, warned about taking these initial kneejerk moves as indicative of anything:
“FX markets seem to want to take it as BOJ’s pivot, which I do not think so.”
The BoJ’s dramatic adjustment to its yield-curve control framework could reflect policymakers’ preference for a stronger yen, according to National Australia Bank.
“The widening of the band has been framed as a move to improve market functionality, but implicitly one could argue the bank now has a preference for a stronger yen (or at a minimum a distaste for further yen weakness),” Rodrigo Catril, the bank’s Sydney-based strategist says.
“On face value the YCC announcement reinforces the view that the BOJ willingness to wait for the right type of inflation does have limits.”
This action by The BoJ has sparked chaos in other markets with US Treasury yields spiking…
As Bloomberg’s Yuki Masujima said:
“The implications go far beyond Japan – with the BOJ – the last major holdout in a global monetary tightening shift (with the exception of China) — now letting the benchmark yield trade higher than before, the shock will echo across global financial markets.”
Bitcoin has spiked (likely on the rise in BOJ QE – which is actually offset by the BOJ ‘allowing’ rates to rise, thus tighten)…
Gold jumped back above $1800…
And US equity markets are tumbling…
…and just as liquidity evaporates for the Xmas break across global markets.
The governor had repeatedly stuck to a resolutely dovish stance by stressing the need for stimulus until stronger wage growth takes place, ruling out the possibility the BOJ will take action against the yen’s slump.
He had also characterized any widening of the movement band around the yield target as equivalent to a rate hike, a description that led most economists to believe such a move was still some time away.
Or maybe that was Kuroda’s cunning plan after all – offer no hint at all of this and then drop it during one of the most illiquid times of day during one of the most illiquid weeks of the year, so the effect is immediate – like ripping off a band-aid.
Presumably, the smart chaps in the BOJ believe they can allow the yield to jump and traders will happily let it rest there at 50bps. Of course that won’t happen and Kuroda’s successor will be forced to buy ever increasing quantities of JGBs to maintain the 50bps yield upper band.
END
We will probably see more Japanese investors move their money back to Japan with this move as the yen will continually strengthen!
(zerohedge)
Kuroda-nado Not Enough To Derail US Treasury Rally, BoJ Shift Sparks Japanese Banking Bonanza
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 10:02 AM
The BoJ decision to widen the YCC band was a surprise in the sense that’s it been viewed as a “when, not if” matter (while still messaging quite “dovishly” in the press conference, with Kuroda going out of his way to message repeatedly that this was not policy tightening, as they did not raise short-term policy rates nor adjust the monetary base target).
Markets knew the BoJ eventually had to true-up the 10Y point with the rest of JGB curve and fundamentals… and eventually, begin a gradual policy alignment with rest of world’s already robust tightening, as they had instead continued to ease throughout ‘22…
Nonetheless, most everybody expected this move to come after the Kuroda term ended in April ‘23, with most expecting a “phase-in” executed in smaller increments over time.
But, as Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White, details below, the yen, not USTs, stands to be the main adjustment mechanism for the BOJ’s policy shift, with the currency facing potentially significantly more upside, but the rally in USTs remaining intact for now.
This time of year is replete with “Top Christmas Films” lists, but one festive movie we’ve seen before is the BOJ surprising markets in December. They have not disappointed this year, announcing today they would widen the trading band in the 10-year JGB to -0.5% to +0.5%.
It was a matter of when, not if, we would see this change: a policy that involves buying unlimited JGBs — when the BOJ already owns more than half of the market — to keep the 10-year yield artificially low when rates are rising across the rest of the world, would always eventually have to face its own inherent contradictions.
Japan is a net capital exporter, so to appreciate the net effects of such a change, understanding the likely behavior of Japanese investors in foreign assets is key. In a nutshell, rising short-term US yields as the Fed raised rates has made USTs increasingly unattractive to them after FX hedging costs.
Adjusting the net yield pick-up for Japanese buyers of USTs by US and Japanese inflation gives a close leading relationship with USDJPY. This has dropped precipitously this year, and if the relationship continues to hold, USDJPY annual growth would fall to 5-10% in the next six months or so, taking USDJPY down to the 115/120 level.
Rising yields on JGBs (the 10-year has risen to 0.4% from 0.25% today) will pressure more Japanese capital to return home, or not leave the country in the first place.
But this will not likely be enough to unseat the rally in USTs. First of all, Japan investors have been net sellers of Treasuries for most of this year, even as Treasuries have rallied.
Secondly, the tailwinds for USTs I noted in October that would likely trigger a rally are still valid. The Fed’s hawkishness has very likely peaked for now; rising recession risk is likely to spur haven demand next year; while central-bank reserve selling (mostly USTs), which had reached extreme levels, is abating as easing commodity prices takes pressure off commodity importers (including Japan).
Treasuries also remain historically oversold and positioning is very net short, while seasonality continues to be favorable.
Finally, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott points out that there is also an authentic “macro story” reality here on the YCC move from the BoJ, which is that prices are higher with growth also above trend, while too, inflation expectations continue to rise, which is why Yen (stronger) in my eyes was the best way to play “Short USD” in 2023…although this move happening ahead of schedule now takes some of the luster out of remain risk / reward in the trade, as this was the “easy part”.
The next incremental YCC adjustment after this initial move becomes more difficult, because with the Fed nearing the end of their policy tightening, UST yields have stopped going meaningfully higher – so a “unilateral” move higher in JGB yields from additional YCC adjustment risks a more “unruly” market impact.
From here on the currency side, any $Yen potential for 120-130 and beyond is likely a waiting-game on US recession, likely requiring a Fed messaging pivot towards outright “policy easing / rate cutting” to get that “rates differentials” kicker to take the Yen strengthening to relative overdrive.
The biggest question now is whether this Yen strength and domestic bond market yield “pick-up” will see repatriation back home from many Japanese investors out of foreign bond markets, who since NIRP began in early 2016, have moved large amounts of money into overseas fixed-income.
This should be bullish for Japanese banks and insurers, and yet shouldn’t come close to hurting Corporate Japan, as the 25bps in the scheme is relatively negligible – I’d be a buyer of upside in Japan Equities / TOPIX Banks through options on this pullback, bc it’s a positive “nominal growth” story.
3c CHINA /
CHINA/COVID
China’s Blood Banks In Emergency Mode Again Amid COVID-19 Surge
Blood bank emergencies have occurred frequently across China since COVID-19. As the new year approaches, many local blood banks are again in short supply, with some provinces calling on the public to donate blood and some issuing red alerts as the nation’s blood supply fails to keep pace with demand.
The blood supply crisis comes as China relaxes its long-standing zero-COVID rules, fueling a corresponding rise in cases. After the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) issued “10 New Guidelines” for epidemic prevention on Dec. 7, reported COVID-19 cases surged in many places in China, leading to a dramatic drop in blood donations.
In an attempt to alleviate the shortage, China’s National Health Commission announced Saturday that most recovered COVID patients must wait only seven days after testing negative to donate blood. The previous waiting period was six months.
The revised guidelines also allow donations by close contacts and secondary close contacts of COVID-19 infections, as well as people who have traveled to medium and high-risk areas.
Blood Shortages Across China
At least eight provinces have reported a blood shortage since December, according to Chinese news site Caixin. Hospitals are prioritizing blood for critically ill patients. Elective surgeries are being postponed, and even some routine patients are being forced to postpone blood use.
In Jinan, the capital of Shandong Province, the blood center is currently collecting only about 100 units of blood per day (200 ml per unit). Jinan needs at least 700 units of blood per day to meet the basic supply requirements for clinical use.
Jiangsu Province, adjacent to Shandong, is also facing a blood bank emergency. On Dec. 13, Jiangsu Province Blood Center released an appeal to the people of Nanjing, its capital city.
The appeal stated that under China’s zero-COVID policy, blood donations dropped sharply. It blamed the low flow of people on the streets, and a lack of group blood donations due to the shutdown of Nanjing’s universities. However, the demand for blood has not fallen, and “blood inventory has fallen below the minimum inventory warning line,” the appeal says.
According to a Dec. 14 report on Jiangsu Provincial Radio and Television, the province’s blood center indicated that it only had Type A blood reserves for three days, with reserves of less than five days for other blood types.
Blood supplies from some areas are being diverted to larger cities such as Beijing, which have been hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 surge.
China is no stranger to COVID-related blood shortages. Beijing issued a Voluntary Blood Donation Initiative as early as March 7, 2020, as reported by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) owned newspaper The Beijing News. In July 2020, the Beijing Red Cross Blood Center reported that from late January to early February of that year, the amount of blood donated was sometimes less than one-sixth of that in the same period in 2019.
Resources Diverted to Hard-hit Beijing
On Dec. 7, Heze, which has a shortage of blood for clinical use, provided 50,000 milliliters of blood to Beijing. Shandong state-run Haibao News reported that Beijing is facing difficulties in collecting blood donations without compensation, and Heze has been asked to support the capital with blood supplies. This is the second time Heze offered assistance to Beijing in 2022.
On Dec. 15, a pregnant woman in Qianshahai village in Heze suffered a massive hemorrhage and appealed to her fellow villagers to donate blood to save her life. Chinese media said only that the woman was “in urgent need of a massive blood transfusion” but did not mention why the hospital could not provide blood to her.
People line up at the fever clinic of a hospital as COVID-19 outbreaks continue in Beijing on Dec. 9, 2022. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)
By Dec. 7, the central blood station in Heze had provided support to other areas 10 times.
Appealing to Individuals for Help
Shandong province’s blood center said that it could only appeal to the public to donate blood on an individual basis. Group blood donation, which typically accounts for a significant percentage of China’s donated blood, is “difficult and almost impossible” due to the pandemic, a blood center official told The Epoch Times on Dec. 16.
“We can only rely on street blood donation [centers], but there are still very few people on the street now,” the official said.
With many businesses and schools shuttered, and residents staying home for fear of infection, street-side blood donation centers are seeing little business.
END
Robert H to us:
Just conforms what has been known for months and that is America’s influence in the Middle East is waning to point of irrelevance.
If the Saudis become part of the BRIC and price oil in currencies outside the dollar their final, Piss Off to the ship of fools will be obvious.
It is part of why Israel is resisting US pressure to send modern weapons because if they lose Russia’s umbrella they will be on their own in the Middle East. As it is they are skating on thin ice over other issues, with Russia.
CHINA/SAUDI ARABIA/USA
(Gatestone)
China’s Deal with Saudi Arabia is a Disaster for Biden
Nothing better illustrates the utter ineptitude of the Biden administration’s dealings with the Middle East than Saudi Arabia’s decision to forge a strategic alliance with China.
Biden set the tone for his strained relationship with the Saudi royal family during the 2020 presidential election contest when he denounced the kingdom as a “pariah” state over its involvement in the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in 2018, although there has never any audible distress from the Biden administration over Iran’s 2007 abduction and presumed death of ex-FBI agent Robert Levinson.
By any standard, the deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran should serve as a wake-up call to the Biden administration to redouble its efforts to reaffirm its commitment to key allies in the region such as the Saudis, who are committed to resisting any attempt by Tehran to expand its malign influence in the region.
That Riyadh is now moving away from its traditional alliance with the US and strengthening its ties with Beijing is a strategic disaster of epic proportions, and serves as a damning indictment of the Biden administration’s careless treatment of the Saudis, for which the president is personally to blame.
That Saudi Arabia is now moving away from its traditional alliance with the US and strengthening its ties with China is a strategic disaster of epic proportions, and serves as a damning indictment of the Biden administration’s careless treatment of the Saudis. Pictured: The Chinese and the Saudi flags fly in Riyadh, on December 7, 2022, ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the Saudi capital. (Photo by Fayez Nureldine/AFP via Getty Images)
Nothing better illustrates the utter ineptitude of the Biden administration’s dealings with the Middle East than Saudi Arabia’s decision to forge a strategic alliance with China.
This is a time when Washington should be working overtime to strengthen its ties with long-standing allies like the Saudis to combat the mounting threat Iran poses to the region’s security.
Apart from the deeply alarming progress the ayatollahs are said to be making with their efforts to produce nuclear weapons,
The new “axis of evil” that has been formed between Moscow and Tehran in recent months means Iran will soon be taking delivery of state-of-the-art Russian warplanes to add to its military arsenal.
In what both the White House and Downing Street described as “sordid deals” between the two countries, Iran is due to take delivery of Russian Su-35 fighter jets next year as well as other advanced military equipment and components, including helicopters and air defence systems. In return Iran is providing Russia with hundreds of its Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 so-called kamikaze drones, which self-destruct on hitting their target.
As US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby explained at a briefing in Washington, Moscow has “offered Iran an unprecedented level of military and technical support”, which “transforms their relationship into a full defense partnership”.
Biden administration officials added that Iranian pilots were already being trained in Russia on how to fly the Su-35 fighter.
By any standard, the deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran should serve as a wake-up call to the Biden administration to redouble its efforts to reaffirm its commitment to key allies in the region such as the Saudis, who are committed to resisting any attempt by Tehran to expand its malign influence in the region.
Riyadh’s determination to resist Iran’s aggressive conduct was reflected in recent comments made by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud who warned that “all bets are off” if Iran succeeds in its goal of acquiring an operational nuclear weapon.
“We are in a very dangerous space in the region… you can expect that regional states will certainly look towards how they can ensure their own security,” he said.
Riyadh’s robust approach to Iran’s bellicose conduct is exactly the sort of response Washington needs to see from its allies as it faces up to the Iranian threat. Yet, thanks to the Biden administration’s wilful neglect of its relations with the Saudis, Riyadh is instead looking to build a partnership with Beijing, as was evident from the lavish reception given to Chinese President Xi Jinping during his state visit to the kingdom this month.
Rarely has a visiting leader been the recipient of such lavish state pageantry as Xi after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spared no effort to afford the Chinese leader a warm welcome, which included a jet escort on his arrival.
During his three-day visit, Xi held extensive talks with the Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, as well as other senior Saudi officials and signed a strategic partnership agreement that will deepen ties between Riyadh and Beijing on a range of issues, from defence to technology.
One particularly eye-catching aspect of the agreement was a deal with the Chinese tech giant Huawei to supply the Saudis with cloud computing services and allow “high-tech” complexes to be built in Saudi cities, according to Saudi officials.
Huawei has been designated a potential security threat by the US, with intelligence officials claiming that the company has close links to China’s ruling Communist Party and could be used to conduct spying operations.
That Riyadh is now moving away from its traditional alliance with the US and strengthening its ties with Beijing is a strategic disaster of epic proportions, and serves as a damning indictment of the Biden administration’s careless treatment of the Saudis, for which the president is personally to blame.
Biden set the tone for his strained relationship with the Saudi royal family during the 2020 presidential election contest when he denounced the kingdom as a “pariah” state over its involvement in the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in 2018, although there has never any audible distress from the Biden administration over Iran’s 2007 abduction and presumed death of ex-FBI agent Robert Levinson.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though, forced Biden to rethink his attitude towards the Saudis when it suddenly dawned on him that he needed the Saudis to increase oil supplies to ease the pressure on global prices.
His efforts achieved little: the Saudis were apparently unimpressed with Biden greeting the Crown Prince with a fist-bump when he visited the kingdom in the summer, and he came away empty-handed, with the Saudis and other Gulf states ignoring his plea to increase oil production.
Apart from being dismayed about Biden’s obsession with reviving the controversial nuclear deal with Tehran, which they regard as a flawed agreement — it allows the Iranian regime soon to build as many nuclear weapons as it likes as well, as the ballistic missiles to deliver them — the Saudis and other Gulf leaders are unhappy with the lack of support they have received from Washington over the constant threat they face from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, whom Secretary of State Antony Blinken removed from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations just a few weeks into Biden’s term, and who since then regularly fired Iranian-made missiles and drones into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Now, thanks to Biden’s incompetent management of the US-Saudi relationship, Riyadh is looking to China to protect its interests, a move that confirms the alarming decline in US influence in the region that has taken place under the vacuum in Biden’s leadership.
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
EUROPE/
They are totally nuts!!
(Mish Shedlock)
EU Imposes The World’s Largest Carbon Tax Scheme, Inflationary Madness Sets In
An EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will be set up to equalise the price of carbon paid for EU products operating under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the one for imported goods. This will be achieved by obliging companies that import into the EU to purchase so-called CBAM certificates to pay the difference between the carbon price paid in the country of production and the price of carbon allowances in the EU ETS.
CBAM will cover iron and steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers and electricity, as proposed by the Commission, and extended to hydrogen, indirect emissions under certain conditions, certain precursors as well as to some downstream products such as screws and bolts and similar articles of iron or steel.
Before the end of the transition period, the Commission shall assess whether to extend the scope to other goods at risk of carbon leakage, including organic chemicals and polymers, with the goal to include all goods covered by the ETS by 2030.
Let’s tune into a Tweet Thread by Faten Aggad Senior Advisor Climate Diplomacy @AfricanClimateF.
No Waivers
Resource Shift
“The only effect CBAM would have is a resource shift whereby clean energy capacity in already under-resourced countries will be shifted for export production while industry aimed at local consumption and energy access will depend on dirty fuels.”
The CBAM as drafted would disadvantage the U.S., especially our small businesses and manufacturers, even though the U.S. and EU have nearly identical environmental performance and emissions standards. Particularly problematic in the EU agreement is the obligation for EU importers to pay the difference between the carbon price paid in the country of production and the price of carbon allowances under the EU’s emissions trading system.
Many economies, including the U.S., rely on regulations under statutes such as the Clean Air Act to limit emissions. The EU’s proposal doesn’t credit the cost of domestic regulation when the border tax is applied. The failure to recognize the implicit costs of U.S. regulation would inevitably lead to double emission taxation on exporters.
Neither a Tax Nor a Tariff
The EU says CBAM is neither a tax nor a tariff. It’s an “adjustment mechanism” to “level the playing field“.
Yeah right.
The US objections to CBAM are amusing as were the EU objections to Biden’s horrendously names Inflation Reduction Act that will do anything but reduce inflation.
The EU is Very Worried About Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
Under WTO rules, much of Biden’s IRA is really an illegal subsidy. The EU cannot do in 5 years what the US can pass in a session if one political party is in clear control.
In addition to Biden’s free clean energy handouts, the US is largely energy independent while the EU desperately needs Russian energy.
All the EU can do is bitch to the WTO and that will take many years as well.
Importantly, Germany is upset because the US is handing out free money clean energy subsidies despite WTO rules and it can’t.
And not having learned anything from Russia, Germany is now cozying up to China.
Given the self-imposed cost of going green, the CBAM explicitly looks to make European manufacturers more competitive with foreign producers. Europe says that’s fair. In compliance with World Trade Organization rules, it isn’t discriminating against any particular country, just leveling the playing field.
But this means top trading partners like the U.S. will now face a steep carbon bill when docking at the ports of Rotterdam or Antwerp.
The U.S. has attempted to discourage the CBAM. Climate envoy John Kerry warned Europe against proceeding with the border tax, saying last year that “the United States has strong feelings about not having excessive regulation.”
Biden has “strong feelings about not having excessive regulation,” says John Kerry. What a hoot!
Carbon border tax has been debated in many countries over the past decade, and remains highly controversial. While CBAMs have a global impact by design, the scale of its “spillover effects” on other countries is seldom studied. There are concerns that a unilateral EU CBAM will not only distort international trade, but also shift the burden of addressing climate change to developing countries.
Countries that rely on carbon-intensive exports to the EU will be disproportionately impacted by the CBAM. Welfare losses in developing countries like Ukraine, Egypt, Mozambique and Turkey range between $1 billion to $5 billion, which are significant relative to their gross domestic product (GDP). Mozambique’s economy would shrink by 2.5 percent due to decreased demand.
The CBAM could worsen income inequality and welfare distribution between rich and poor economies.
At its broadest implementation, the CBAM could result in an annual welfare gain in developed countries of $141 billion, while developing countries see an annual welfare loss of $106 billion, compared to a baseline scenario.
We need to stop right there because the IMF solution is reparations and an “Equitable Decarbonization Fund” (EDF) to developing countries.
Tit for Tat?
Perhaps CBAM is the EU’s way of striking back at the US for Biden’s IRA.
On November 12, president Biden’s climate ambassador, John Kerry, made this statement:
“It’s a well-known fact that the United States and many other countries will not establish…some sort of legal structure that is tied to compensation or liability. That’s just not happening.“
One civilian was killed, another eight people were wounded, and a poultry farm was damaged in Ukrainian shelling in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, the region’s governor said on Sunday.
“One person died. It is known that the man came to us from Tambov and worked as a contractor on the construction of a poultry farm,” Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on Telegram.
Further he said, “An estimated 14,000 residents are still without power supply. Emergency crews are starting to reconnect the grid to backup power sources.”
Belgorod borders Ukraine and has come under attack throughout the war. Sunday’s shelling came after The Times reported that the Pentagon now tacitly backs Ukrainian strikes inside Russian territory, although there’s no indication US weapons were used in the attack on Belgorod.
When the US provided the HIMARS rocket launch systems to Ukraine, the Biden administration said it received “assurances” that Ukrainian forces won’t use them inside Russian territory. But the US no longer appears to be concerned about how the weapons are used.
“When we give them a weapon system, it belongs to them, where they use it, how they use it, how much ammunition they use to use that system. I mean, those are Ukrainian decisions, and we respect that,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said last week.
The Times report said that the US was no longer concerned about Ukrainian attacks inside Russia leading to a major escalation based only on the fact that Moscow hasn’t yet responded with nuclear weapons or attacks on NATO countries.
Map: Belgorod lies about 25 miles north of the Ukraine border.
end
Robert H for us: two commentaries
Belarus deploys S-400, Iskander missile systems — Lukashenko – World – TASS
Well, well we get the confirmation that we knew was coming. S400 and Iskanders in Belarus are front line weapon systems that will be used as defensive weapons the moment Poland moves forth. And we can expect major Polish cities will be struck. The same goes for the Baltic wannabes, as they have zero chance of success. As for the trained Polish paratroopers designated to seize Belarusian energy facilities life will be short. A surprise is well planned. Can someone not explain the foolishness of war in face of collapsing economies? The only ay forward is a peaceful one and not a warring one unless one wants to see nations and citizens destroyed on all sides. There is no right or wrong when shooting starts, only death.
A new figure of losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries announced: more than 400 thousand
As i sadly keep writing and disclosing, true Ukrainian losses are as follows: over 420,000 killed; 320,000 MIA missing in action and presumed dead and another 400,000 wounded of which at least 50% will never return to a battlefield. Other unconfirmed reports put all these numbers much higher. Every day over 1,200 soldiers are killed and at least double are wounded. The real reason that the combat lines are collapsing is that the Russians are killing Ukrainian and NATO soldiers faster than they can get to the lines of combat. And this is why civilian doctors have been forced to combat areas as military ones cannot keep up with the carnage. The meat grinder grinds away each day ridding Russian warehouses of old artillery shells and the like while room is made for new artillery and rockets, drones, tanks etc. being produced now 6 days a week. Three Sarmat missiles are now field deployed, in Western Russia, each carrying 12 unstoppable nuclear warheads flying at MACH 20. One might want to stop and think about how lucky does one feel. And yes, these systems are in serial production as Russia revamps its’ nuclear arsenal with the latest technology. And we know little about their laser weapons, some of which have been field tested on the ground and in space. In Moscow, every apartment building is being readied by Christmas Day with supplies as a bomb shelter, for residents. What are preparations in Poland and others? Now in Poland 15 year old children are being called up for military training, as if this is meaningful. New meat grinders are being deployed now such as Pencillin which can ID a Himar launch within 5 seconds giving directed instruction for artillery or Air strikes; and new BMP’s are tearing soldiers apart in close infantry support leaving only the dead. Age does not matter as to how fast one dies. Did you know that the lifespan of a Ukrainian soldier deployed to a combat area is less than 21 days? What insanity sends people to die like this? As i have said Zelensky cannot negotiate peace given the truth of the blood split. Whether it is Ukrainian women or soldiers who kill him first can be debated. Ukrainian soldiers are openly talking about hanging him in Maidan Square. And the NeoNazi crowd will do him in the moment he dares. There is much that will soon be seen in the carnage to come as what remains of Ukraine will be made much poorer than they are now. As for vast quantities of money sent; write it off. They could never pay before and certainly will not be able to pay in their future. Who calculates this blunder? As bystanders to this tragic caper, we can only watch and pray that common sense prevails to avoid a broader conflict resulting from this as it is more than likely that Poland will be the next nation to be sacrificed upon the altar in putting off a reckoning with the sovereign debt crisis which grows by the week with no action. And with each passing week the ability to elongate carnage is diminished both by a lack of capital and by the lack of armaments as both have been squandered in the Ukraine.
The stated objective of Russia has been to reduce the Ukrainian forces into a none existent threat as a proxy of the West. It is not about land, Russia has enough land not to need or want another country’s landmass. Sure the Donbas is the most valuable part of what has been called the Ukraine. And it is no more. As Ukraine sends its’ best and worse to the Donbas, Russia welcomes the opportunity to destroy them instead of being forced to chase them. So far although awful, the meat grinder is not in high gear.
One might expect another 30,000 or more to die in coming days in large daily numbers. As it is even civilian doctors forced to the conflict area are being exhausted with the sheer numbers of wounded coming hourly. This number will soon increase.
Poland has now openly said that they will send in a large force into the Western Ukraine as early as March. It is thought the Ukrainians will last that long. One might think this is optimism because the death rate rate daily will soon climb to 3000-5000 daily as more troops enter and throw themselves on the conflict lines for slaughter. In Kiev the press has now saying that Bakhmut is not special and not worthy of holding preparing the new killing fields where troops are assembling on mass. Soon they too will die. Opening the door for a Russian swept of what is left chased across the Ukraine steppe this winter.
What is pointless waste of manpower is the Ukraine will exhaust their male population for naught. And it will take generations to recover if they ever do. In Canada, Newfoundland proudly sent its’ male population to be slaughtered in WW1 and WW11 and has never recovered. There were no males to allow population growth forcing many women to migrate, lowering the population putting it into a decline from which it cannot recover. It will be similar with Ukraine. People never learn especially when enablers are involved, and crooks like Zelensky crowds his pockets with ill gotten loot. Even his wife has no shame sent to Paris to beg for money while going on a shopping frenzy to spend USD $40,000 in one hour while ordinary Ukrainians are left to cope for his folly. And no doubt all courtesy of the American largesse at the expense of ordinary Americans.
12/20/22 By WarNews24/7 All available strategic reserves are transferred by the Ukrainian military command to Bakhmut after the defeat of the elite OPFOR forces and the withdrawal of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade.
The Russians are dangerously tightening the noose around the Ukrainian Army: Outside the city of Bakhmut, heavy fighting is taking place in Prigodno, Opytne and Kleeshevka. The outcome of the battles in these three areas will allow the Russian Army to launch a simultaneous attack from 3 directions and cut off the supply route of the Ukrainian forces from the west as well.
Inside the city, fierce urban fighting is taking place on the eastern side with the Russian Army trying to penetrate deeper into the residential area next to the Industrial Zone, while the Ukrainians try to push them back.
Sources of the Wagner forces report that there is a further advance of their forces along the Fedor Maksimenko road towards the southern part of Artemovsk (Bahmut ). The “Wagnerites” took control of two blocks near gas stations in the east of the city.
In this context, the Ukrainians are strengthening their forces by transferring two more Brigades, the 4th from Kyiv and the 46th from Poltava. Both belong to Kiev’s strategic reserves.
At the same time, the Ukrainian administration is removing the 93rd brigade, which has almost ceased to exist. What is left of this formation is moved to the point of permanent deployment in the village of Cherkasy in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The 93rd Brigade “absorbed” all the shots of the Russian artillery.
Shocking are the videos of the battles in Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces try to escape through an inferno of fire with Russian shells exploding around them. Another Ukrainian group is trapped inside a building and they are fighting to the end…
Watch video of the battles in Bakhmut at source below.
The elite of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been defeated! The elite unit of the Ukrainian army suffers heavy losses in the battle for Bakhmut.
The 214th OPFOR Battalion was created with NATO support. The training of the soldiers of this unit was done by foreign military personnel. The preparation was done according to the standards of the armies of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The Battalion was joined by the most experienced and combat-ready soldiers of the Ukrainian army.
The Ukrainian leadership was forced to throw these elite forces into battle after the colossal losses of other units.
According to various estimates, the Ukrainian Army is losing one Battalion per day.
“It is already known that many soldiers of the 214th OPFOR battalion were captured. Some of them were forced to surrender, but there are also those who preferred life in Russian captivity to death in the trenches.
The 214th OPFOR battalion is on the brink of complete annihilation. At best, his soldiers will be captured. But there is a very high probability that they will meet a tragic death in Bakhmut’s “meat machine”, Russian military sources say.
Early during lockdowns in 2020, when the whole of the media marched in lockstep with the most appalling reach of public policy in our lifetimes, two doctors from Bakersfield, California went out on a limb and objected.
Their names: Dan Erikson and Artin Massihi from Accelerated Urgent Care. They held a press conference in which they claimed that lockdowns would only delay but not finally control the virus. Moreover, they predicted, at the end of this, we would also be sicker than ever because of our lack of exposure to endemic pathogens.
You could say they were brave but why should it require bravery simply to share conventional wisdom that is part of every medical background? Indeed, the idea that reducing exposure to pathogens creates more vulnerability to disease is a point every generation in the last hundred years has learned in school.
How well I can recall the outrage! They were treated like seditious cranks and new media blasted their comments as somehow radically heterodox, even though they said nothing I had not learned in 9th-grade biology class. It was utterly bizarre how quickly lockdowns became an orthodoxy, enforced, as we are now learning, by media and tech platforms working closely with government agencies to warp public perceptions of science.
Among those warpings was an incredible blackout concerning the basics of natural immunity. My goodness, why did this happen? It’s not conspiracy to draw an obvious reason: they wanted to sell a vaccine. And they wanted to push the idea that Covid was universally deadly for everyone so that they could justify their “whole-of-society” approach to lockdowns.
Here we are three years later and the headlines are all over the place.
Isn’t it time to give these doctors some credit and perhaps regret their vicious treatment at the hands of the press?
Meanwhile, it’s time we get clear on some basics. There is no one better to lay it out other than the greatest living theoretical epidemiologist, Sunetra Gupta. I think one way to understand her contribution is to see her as the Voltaire or the Adam Smith of infectious disease. The very essence of liberal political economy and liberal theory generally from the Age of Enlightenment to the present is the observation that society manages itself. It does not need a top-down plan and the attempt to centrally plan the economy or culture always produces unintended consequences.
So too for the issue of infectious disease. Dr. Gupta’s observation is that we evolved with pathogens in a delicate dance in which we share the same ecosphere, both suffering and benefiting from our entanglement with them. Disturbing that balance can wreck the immune system and leave us more vulnerable and sicker than ever before.
Writing in the Telegraph, she says “I am used to viewing infectious disease from an ecological perspective. Therefore, it did not come as much of a surprise to me that some non-Covid seasonal respiratory diseases almost immediately started to take a knock on the head during lockdown. Many took this to be an indication that lockdowns were working to stop the spread of disease, forgetting that the impact of lockdowns on already established or ‘endemic’ diseases is completely different to the impact on a new disease in its ‘epidemic’ phase.”
She explains that society-wide pathogenic avoidance creates an “immunity debt,” a gap in the level of protection that you have developed from previous exposure. There is a “threshold of immunity in the population at which rates of new infections start to decline — known as the herd immunity threshold. If we are below this threshold, we are in immunity debt; if we are above it, we are in credit — at least for a while.”
With normal diseases, we experience immunity debt in winter and so the herd immunity threshold rises. That’s when we experience more infection. As Fr. Naugle points out, this reality is reflected in our liturgical calendar during the winter months when the message is to look out for danger, stay healthy, be with friends and family, and intensify your concern for issues of life and death.
However, this period of conventional sicknesses gives rise to an immunity surplus as we move into spring and we can go about our lives with more confidence and a carefree attitude, and hence the symbolism of Easter as the beginning of new life. And yet the months of sun and exercise and party time gradually contribute to building up another immunity debt in the population which will be paid again in the winter months.
Notice that this pattern repeats itself in every year and every generation, all without the help of government public health agencies. However, writes Gupta, “disturbing this order can have a profound impact on an individual’s ability to resist disease. More than anything, it is clear that we are experiencing an entirely predictable perturbation in our finely balanced ecological relationship with the organisms which are capable of causing serious disease.”
Lockdowns changed nothing about these seasonal and natural processes except to make our immunity debt deeper and scarier than ever. To be sure, lockdowns in the end did not stop the pathogen that causes Covid. Instead, they only forced one group to be exposed earlier and more often than other groups, and this allocation of exposure took place entirely based on a politically scripted model.
As we saw, the working classes experienced exposure first and the ruling classes experienced exposure later. The policies entrenched a grim and medieval-style political hierarchy of infection. Rather than encouraging the vulnerable populations to shelter and everyone else to gain immunities through living normal life, lockdown policies pushed the working classes in front of the pathogen as a protection scheme for ruling classes.
And yet now, the results are in. Those who delayed infection for as long as possible, or otherwise tried to game the careful ecological balance with newly invented shots, not only eventually got Covid but made themselves even more vulnerable to diseases that are already endemic in the population.
What Gupta has explained with such erudition was actually the common understanding of previous generations. And nothing about the dangerous innovation of lockdown ideology has changed these natural processes. They only ended up making us sicker than ever. So there is some irony in reading stories of alarm in the high-end media. The right response to such alarm is simply to say: what else did you expect?
The Bakersfield doctors were right all along. So was my mother, her mother, and her mother before her. Together they had far more wisdom about infectious disease than Anthony Fauci and all his cohorts.
end
People Died From mRNA-Vaccine-Damaged Hearts, New Peer-Reviewed German Study Provides Direct Evidence
Medical pathologists from Heidelberg University Hospital in Heidelberg, Germany have published direct evidence showing how people found dead after mRNA vaccination died. As this team of six scientists explore in their study, these mRNA-vaccinated patients suffered from heart damage because their hearts were attacked by their own immune cells. This autoimmune attack on their own heart cells then leads to their damaged hearts beating so many times per second that, once the tachycardia unexpectedly started, they died in minutes.
The article, “Autopsy-based histopathological characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination,” was published on Nov. 27, 2022, in the journal Clinical Research in Cardiology, the official journal of the German Cardiac Society. The research team autopsied 25 victims of different ages who were found dead at home within 28 days of vaccination. They looked at their heart tissue under the microscope to find out why these people died of cardiac rhythmic disruption when they had no apparent underlying heart disease.
In the authors’ own words: “Our findings establish the histological phenotype of lethal vaccination-associated myocarditis.”
Histological phenotype means direct observation of microscopic tissue.
In a video analyzing the results, nurse educator Dr. John Campbell, who is based in the United Kingdom, told his audience: “This is peer-reviewed. This is proper science, and a definitive pathological diagnosis by a group of leading German pathologists.” Campbell’s video has been viewed 918,000 times. He has 2.58 million subscribers on his channel.
Died of Ventricular Tachycardia or Fibrillation
Ventricular tachycardia is when the heart begins beating so fast that it doesn’t have time to refill with blood between beats, so it is not adequately pumping blood. The problem originates from the ventricles: the chambers that push the blood out of the heart to the rest of the body.
Fibrillation is when, instead of the heart actually beating, it starts to just quiver. This problem can originate from the ventricles or the atria. The atria are the upper chambers that basically suck blood into the heart by expanding and contracting. Though more people are familiar with A-Fib (atrial fibrillation), ventricular fibrillation is much more dangerous, and usually lethal within minutes.
The deceased whose hearts were autopsied in this study were found dead at home, each having died of ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation within 28 days of mRNA vaccination.
Visibly Damaged Hearts
Macrophages are large cells that are part of our immune system. When the immune system is functioning properly, our bodies use macrophages to attack infectious agents and other foreign matter. Macrophages are a key part of the innate immune system, helping with normal tissue development as well as with repairing damaged tissue, according to researchers from Northwestern University.
But in the case of the people who died suddenly within a month of being vaccinated, the body’s own macrophages permeated their heart muscle, chewing up the muscle and causing spots that disrupted the heart rhythm. This macrophage invasion appeared to have literally short-circuited the heart’s conduction of the electrical impulses, causing the heart to beat irregularly.
The irregular heartbeats led to a negative feedback loop, making the heart race faster and faster as it tries to right itself. When that happens, the heart is effectively pumping no blood, and the victim dies within seconds or minutes unless there is a defibrillator nearby—to deliver an electrical shock to the heart to help it get back into rhythm—and someone knows to use it immediately.
The peer-reviewed study from German researchers included microscope images showing the damage to the victims’ heart cells, the presence of lymphocytes (another kind of smaller immune cell) in the heart muscle, and invasive macrophages in the heart muscle. Both macrophages and lymphocytes called T-helper cells were found in the heart tissue. The immune cells were concentrated in spots, each of which is called a focus. Spots of damaged heart tissue like this can generate offbeat signals that disrupt the heart’s smooth rhythm.
There are thousands of cardiac cells in the heart. These cells aren’t passive, like the cells in your biceps that need separate nerves to make them move. Instead, cardiac cells generate their own electrical impulses.
The cells of cardiac muscle act like nerves as well, conducting signals to and from adjacent muscle cells. This synchronizes their contractions, as well as perpetuates the regular continuity of the heartbeat.
Once a heart is beating, it takes a lot to stop it. A focus that breaks up this rhythm is like a bad drummer in a middle-school band. It can cause a cascade of chaos that prevents the heart from pumping blood productively.
Myocarditis: A Recognized Vaccine Adverse Event
The WHO and the CDC do recognize myocarditis post-mRNA vaccination. Both regulatory agencies consider it a “recognized but rare complication.” Most doctors also dismiss myocarditis cases as “mild.”
But the deceased subjects of the German study, as Campbell points out, also had supposedly “mild” myocarditis. The myocarditis appeared only in microscopic spots here and there. However, the electrical disruption of these spots caused rapid and dramatic deaths. In other words, there is no mild myocarditis, as one parent of an mRNA-vaccine-injured teen named Aiden Ekanayake, said.
Campbell recommended that clinicians have a “high index of suspicion” that mRNA-vaccinated people might be subject to this autoimmune myocarditis so that they can diagnose and treat it while the people are still alive. Clinicians pretending that this vaccine injury is “rare and mild,” has led to countless potentially avoidable tragedies.
Your Body Attacking Your Own Heart Cells
To be clear, this is not the mRNA vaccine directly damaging the heart—it is worse. The mRNA is injected into your muscle cells, turning the cell into a factory producing COVID-19 spike proteins.
As a result of the mRNA immunization, your body generates an immune response against COVID-19 spike proteins.
Since your own muscle cells were used to make the COVID-19 spike proteins and may have them on the cell surface, your newly-weaponized immune cells targeting the spike protein may start attacking your own healthy muscle cells.
This new German study shows photographic evidence that this happens and has killed people.
Sir Austin Bradford Hill was an English medical statistician who established a set of epidemiological guidelines in 1965, now called the Bradford Hill criteria, which help prove cause and effect. If we apply the Bradford Hill criteria to this new research, it shows that the lethal myocarditis of these patients was indeed caused by mRNA vaccines. The German research demonstrated Bradford Hill’s criteria of strength (the more two things happen at the same time, the more likely one causes the other, even for rare events); consistency (the finding of sudden death from mRNA-vaccine-induced myocarditis has been happening consistently in different places and populations); specificity (for Bradford Hill, this is when a single cause produces a single effect. In this case the cause is the mRNA vaccine and the effect is myocarditis); and several more.
With multiple peer-reviewed studies showing the potential danger from autoimmune side effects associated with covid mRNA vaccines (the more doses the higher the risk) , along with numerous studies debunking the notion that lockdowns, mandates and masks are effective at stopping the spread of the virus, more and more public figures are beginning to speak out about their initial support of the authoritarian measures.
Actor Tim Robbins recently expressed his regret on Russell Brand’s podcast for blindly following government mandates and he admonished tyrannical attitudes that led lockdown supporters to call for the deaths of their political opponents.
While hindsight is indeed 20/20, it should be noted that there were millions of people in the US alone that saw the covid hype for what it was and tried to warn others.
The fear mongering by the government and mainstream media in the face of the covid pandemic was effective in terrorizing at least half the American populace into compliance during the first year of the event. Many alternative media analysts and many doctors and virologists came out against the mandates early on, warning that the median Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of covid was tiny (0.23% officially) and that the lockdowns were about control rather than public safety. These people were demonized by the corporate media and threatened with punishment by the government. They faced censorship, potential joblessness and being denied access to health care. In some cases they were even labeled “terrorists” for refusing to comply.
Luckily, half the states in the US rejected the mandates and stood firm against Joe Biden’s efforts to institute vaccine passport rules on American employers and workers. Had it not been for those conservative state officials and the liberty minded people that fought back, our nation might look more like China today with its draconian “zero covid” policy.
As we all said from the very beginning, the covid response was about centralizing power over the population using fear. It was never about saving lives. The US came within a breath of perpetual medical totalitarianism, and much needs to be learned in terms of public psychology as the dust settles on covid.
-END-
White House Can’t Mandate COVID Jabs For Federal Contractors: Appeals Court
A federal appeals court on Monday struck down a White House rule requiring anyone employed by a federal contractor to be vaccinated against COVID-19 as a condition of government contracts.
A three-panel judge of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals voted 2-1 to affirm a lower court judgment that barred President Joe Biden’s September 2021 executive order in three states after Louisiana, Indiana, and Mississippi sued to challenge the rule.
These three states sued the Biden administration in the Western District of Louisiana in their capacities as federal contractors themselves, winning an injunction and stay by the district court.
In upholding the lower court finding, Judge Kurt Engelhardt, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, said in his majority opinion (pdf) that a broad interpretation of the law could have given Biden “nearly unlimited authority to introduce requirements into federal contracts.”
He illustrated his point by saying that Biden could “hypothetically” mandate that all third-party federal contractors’ employees reduce their BMI (body mass index) below a certain number based “on the theory that obesity is a primary contributor to unhealthiness and absenteeism.”
Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita speaks in Schererville, Ind., on Nov. 8, 2022. (Darron Cummings/AP Photo)
The U.S. government has contracts with hundreds of third-party contractors, and judges have indicated that the issue might affect up to 20 percent of American employees.
Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita touted the ruling as a legal victory against what he called President Joe Biden’s executive overreach.
Rokita, who joined with two other plaintiff states in the legal action, decried Biden’s “truly unprecedented” use of the federal Procurement Act to wield executive power to impose the mandate on third-party contractors.
“Hoosiers and all Americans should have the liberty to make their own decisions on whether to get vaccinated,” Rokita said in a statement.
“That includes individuals who happen to work as federal contractors. No one should have to fear losing their jobs just because they opt against getting a shot.”
Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry called the appeals court’s decision a “victory for freedom.”
“We will continue to stand up against these abuses of power that threaten us now and in the future,” he said in a statement.
Syringes with COVID-19 vaccines in Berlin, Germany, on Feb. 28, 2022. (Carsten Koall/Getty Images)
‘Intrusive Command’
The Department of Justice (DOJ) defended the mandate in a court filing, saying Biden’s executive order, issued on Sept. 9, 2021, was justified under the Federal Property and Administrative Services Act of 1949, known as the Procurement Act.
The DOJ had argued in an earlier court filing that “requiring entities that enter into federal contracts to have a vaccinated workforce enhances the efficiency of federal contractor operations,” per the Procurement Act.
Engelhardt said that if Biden had issued an alternative but similar executive order targeting tobacco—mandating that workers refrain from smoking or being in the presence of smoking—it would “undoubtedly strike reasonable minds as too great a stretch under the Procurement Act.”
“No such provision exists in the Procurement Act to justify this intrusive command,” the judge wrote.
“The pandemic, challenging as it has been for the President, the legislature, the courts, and especially the populace, does not justify such an enormous and transformative expansion of presidential authority.”
The lower court originally found that the states had Article III standing as they faced a choice between complying with the mandate and potentially losing employees or becoming ineligible to bid on or renew federal contracts.
The district court found that Biden’s mandate fell afoul of the Tenth Amendment, which entrusts the “safety and the health of the people” to the politically accountable officials of the states.
…
The appeals court found Biden’s executive order unlawful and a “truly unprecedented” use of procurement regulation to “force obligations on individual employees.”
“When an agency claims to discover in a long-extant statute an unheralded power to regulate ‘a significant portion of the American economy,’ we typically greet its announcement with a measure of skepticism,” Engelhardt wrote.
“We expect Congress to speak clearly if it wishes to assign to an agency decisions of vast ‘economic and political significance.’”
However, Congress didn’t authorize “such a dramatic shift” in the president’s power under the Procurement Act, he noted.
Did these people take illegal research offshore using US taxpayer money & did created & caused the COVID virus that killed so many? Is Fauci, Collins, Baric & Daszak the 4 Horsemen of Apocalypse?
Is this all a game and we are the low level players who really have no say?
See document below that stopped GoF research in 2014. How come did it go on? Must be have Fauci and Francis Collins in a courtroom now? Under oath. We need the answers. NIAID under Fauci continued to give grant money (US tax dollars) to Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance. We need to know how and why? Was this legal? It was not! How could Fauci and Collins violate the rules and get away with it and look at what they caused.
‘U.S. Government Gain-of-Function Deliberative Process and Research Funding Pause on Selected Gain-of-Function Research Involving Influenza, MERS, and SARS Viruses Gain-of-function studies, or research that improves the ability of a pathogen to cause disease, help define the fundamental nature of human-pathogen interactions, thereby enabling assessment of the pandemic potential of emerging infectious agents, informing public health and preparedness efforts, and furthering medical countermeasure development.
Gain-of-function studies may entail biosafety and biosecurity risks; therefore, the risks and benefits of gain-of function research must be evaluated, both in the context of recent U.S. biosafety incidents and to keep pace with new technological developments, in order to determine which types of studies should go forward and under what conditions. In light of recent concerns regarding biosafety and biosecurity, effective immediately, the U.S. Government (USG) will pause new USG funding for gain-of-function research on influenza, MERS or SARS viruses, as defined below. This research funding pause will be effective until a robust and broad deliberative process is completed that results in the adoption of a new USG gain-of-function research policy 1 .
Restrictions on new funding will apply as follows: New USG funding will not be released for gain-of-function research projects that may be reasonably anticipated to confer attributes to influenza, MERS, or SARS viruses such that the virus would have enhanced pathogenicity and/or transmissibility in mammals via the respiratory route. The research funding pause would not apply to characterization or testing of naturally occurring influenza, MERS, and SARS viruses, unless the tests are reasonably anticipated to increase transmissibility and/or pathogenicity.
In parallel, we will encourage the currently-funded USG and non-USG funded research community to join in adopting a voluntary pause on research that meets the stated definition. The deliberative process that will ensue during the period of the research pause will explicitly evaluate the risks and potential benefits of gain-of-function research with potential pandemic pathogens. The presumptive benefits that are generally identified in pursuing this type of research are stated in terms of enhanced ability for earlier awareness of naturally emerging dangerous pandemic pathogens or in the development of medical products in anticipation of such emergence. However the relative merits of gain-of-function experimental approaches must be compared ultimately to potentially safer approaches. The deliberative process will offer recommendations for risk mitigation, potential courses of action in light of this assessment, and propose methodologies for the objective and rigorous assessment of risks and potential benefits that might be applied to the approval and conduct of individual experiments or classes of experiments.
Although the gain-of-function studies that fall within the scope of research subject to the funding pause will be a starting point for deliberations, the suitability of other types of gain-of-function studies will be discussed. It is feasible that the discussion could lead to suggestions of broadening the funding pause to include research with additional pathogens, however, federal Departments and Agencies who fund, support, or perform research should be consulted prior to any additional pathogens being added to the scope of the funding pause. The deliberative process is envisioned to be time-limited, to involve two distinct, but collaborating, entities, and to be structured to enable robust engagement with the life sciences community. As a first step, the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB) will be asked to conduct the deliberative process described above and to draft a set of resulting recommendations for gain-of-function research that will be reviewed by the broader life sciences community.
The NSABB will serve as the official federal advisory body for providing advice on oversight of this area of dual use research, in keeping with federal rules and regulations. As a second step, coincident with NSABB recommendations, the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies then will be asked to convene a scientific conference focused on the issues associated with gain-of-function research and will include the review and discussion of the NSABB draft recommendations. This NRC conference will provide a mechanism both to engage the life sciences community as well as solicit feedback on optimal approaches to ensure effective federal oversight of gain-of-function research. The life sciences community will be encouraged to provide input through both the NRC and NSABB deliberative processes. The NSABB, informed by NRC feedback, will deliver recommendations to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, the Director of the National Institutes of Health, and the heads of all federal entities that conduct, support, or have an interest in life sciences research (including the Assistants to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism and for Science and Technology).
The final NSABB recommendations and the outcomes of the NRC conference will inform the development and adoption of a new U.S. Government policy governing the funding and conduct of gain-of-function research. Upon adoption of a federal gain-of-function policy, the U.S. Government will declare the end of the research funding pause. The life sciences community will be informed of progress at regular intervals. The estimated time-line is six months for completion of the two deliberative steps (culminating in delivery of the NSABB recommendations to the HHS Secretary) and three months for the development, approval, and publication of the policy, with the goal of completing the entire process in less than one year from declaration of the research funding pause.’
Do not forget this key seminal paper in 2015 by MenachEry and Baric, telling us they just created the COVID pandemic chimeric GoF virus:
‘The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV underscores the threat of cross-species transmission events leading to outbreaks in humans. Here we examine the disease potential of a SARS-like virus, SHC014-CoV, which is currently circulating in Chinese horseshoe bat populations1. Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone. The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild-type backbone can efficiently use multiple orthologs of the SARS receptor human angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2), replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV.
Additionally, in vivo experiments demonstrate replication of the chimeric virus in mouse lung with notable pathogenesis. Evaluation of available SARS-based immune-therapeutic and prophylactic modalities revealed poor efficacy; both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from infection with CoVs using the novel spike protein. On the basis of these findings, we synthetically re-derived an infectious full-length SHC014 recombinant virus and demonstrate robust viral replication both in vitro and in vivo. Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations.’
‘In 2013, the American virologist Ralph Baric approached Zhengli Shi at a meeting. Baric was a top expert in coronaviruses, with hundreds of papers to his credit, and Shi, along with her team at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, had been discovering them by the fistful in bat caves. In one sample of bat guano, Shi had detected the genome of a new virus, called SHC014, that was one of the two closest relatives to the original SARS virus, but her team had not been able to culture it in the lab.
Baric had developed a way around that problem—a technique for “reverse genetics” in coronaviruses. Not only did it allow him to bring an actual virus to life from its genetic code, but he could mix and match parts of multiple viruses. He wanted to take the “spike” gene from SHC014 and move it into a genetic copy of the SARS virus he already had in his lab. The spike molecule is what lets a coronavirus open a cell and get inside it. The resulting chimera would demonstrate whether the spike of SHC014 would attach to human cells.’
‘Among numerous point mutation differences between the SARS-CoV-2 and the bat RaTG13 coronavirus, only the 12-nucleotide furin cleavage site (FCS) exceeds 3 nucleotides. A BLAST search revealed that a 19 nucleotide portion of the SARS-CoV-2 genome encompassing the furin cleavage site is a 100% complementary match to a codon-optimized proprietary sequence that is the reverse complement of the human mutS homolog (MSH3). The reverse complement sequence present in SARS-CoV-2 may occur randomly but other possibilities must be considered. Recombination in an intermediate host is an unlikely explanation. Single stranded RNA viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 utilize negative strand RNA templates in infected cells, which might lead through copy choice recombination with a negative sense SARS-CoV-2 RNA to the integration of the MSH3 negative strand, including the FCS, into the viral genome. In any case, the presence of the 19-nucleotide long RNA sequence including the FCS with 100% identity to the reverse complement of the MSH3 mRNA is highly unusual and requires further investigations.’
Do not forget this strong piece:
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
On February 21, 2022, Frontiers in Virology published a report titled MSH3 Homology and Potential Recombination Link to SARS-CoV-2 Furin Cleavage Site. The Furin Cleavage Site is the component of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that enables the virus to dock onto human lung epithelial cells, thereby initiating the viral replication process. It is the key f…
Remember, the CDC and NIH and FDA and Pfizer etc. told us that the vaccine and contents stays in the injection site (arm) and was quickly cleared by the body with no residual effects; they ALL lied!
The current unknowns regarding ‘vaccinated blood’ are being compared with the ‘Russian roulette’ risks of HIV-tainted blood that was used for transfusions in the 1980s. And this 4-month-old has just set off a media firestorm.
ABOUT DR. MERCOLA: Dr. Joseph Mercola is the founder of Mercola.com. An osteopathic physician, best-selling author and recipient of multiple awards in the field of natural health, his primary vision is to change the modern health paradigm by providing people with a valuable resource to help them take control of their health. His latest book “The Truth About COVID-19” was an instant best-seller and the #1 book sold on Amazon.
Today I would like to draw your attention to a press conference in Germany on December 12th. Data from the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV), which insures 72 million, shows sudden deaths exploding in Germany.
“Immediately after vaccination start on December 27, 2020, sudden and unexpected deaths exploded in Germany.”
Data shows from 2016 through the end of 2020 there were about 6,000 sudden and unexpected deaths per quarter. The numbers then explode to around 14,000 per quarter in 2021 and 2022. More than 80 people each day are dying suddenly and mysteriously – above the historical average. The total German number is much worse, as this data only accounts for the total insured by the KDV.
Since vaccination began in early 2021, deaths have exploded “suddenly and unexpectedly.”
This is shown by the new KBV data of the 72 million insured persons: athletes, moderators…
More from 10:00 a.m. in the live stream: live.ffn.network/w/5sHc4G7rFFWm…
This data is only being released due to a 2020 law that standardizes the use of insurance data to monitor vaccine injury in Germany. It’s unclear why the German Government has not published the data before.
The full PDF is available here and the full press conference is below. (In German but English subtitles are available)
To Recap:
This data shows in Germany, after the vaccine rollout, in late 2020, sudden deaths skyrocketed. In fact, more than doubled and continue as the vaccine program goes on. Even during the ancestral Wuhan strain (2020) excess deaths mainly stated the same. Right now in Germany, 80+ people (per day) are dying suddenly and unexpectedly above historical averages. You can bet this is happening in other heavily vaccinated countries as well.
As we are seeing a similar rise in excess deaths in heavily vaccinated countries, how can health officials claim there is no problem?
VACCINE IMPACT/
ALERT! Are You Ready for the Coming Foreign Invasion of the U.S. This Week?
December 19, 2022 5:16 pm
When Democratic Mayors and Governors publicly state their opposition to the removal of a policy that was implemented by Republican President Donald Trump, and at the same time voice their displeasure with the Democratic Biden Administration, it’s time to sit up and take notice, because that is exactly what has been happening for the past several days as Trump’s Title 42 policy that stemmed the tide of illegal immigrants crossing the borders is set to expire this week, Wednesday, December 21, 2022. California Governor Gavin Newsom, NYC Mayor Eric Adams, Denver Mayor Michael Hancock, and El Paso Mayor Oscar Leeser, all Democrats, are declaring states of emergency as they fear what is about to happen on Wednesday this week when Trump’s Title 42 policy is set to end. On Friday (December 16, 2022), Judge Emmet Sullivan, from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, rejected an appeal by 19 Republican states to maintain Title 42. So unless the U.S. Supreme Court intervenes today or tomorrow and overrules Sullivan’s decision, which at this point seems very unlikely, something that neither the Democrat nor the Republican State leaders want, is going to happen. Why? I honestly don’t know, and although I have some good ideas why, they would be pure speculation at this point. What we do know is that if this happens on Wednesday, the United States is going to become a much more dangerous place, as the flow of criminal cartel gang members (and possibly military-trained mercenaries??), illegal drugs like fentanyl, and sex trafficking of unaccompanied minor children, is going to increase exponentially, just before the Christmas holiday weekend. Coincidentally, Wednesday is the shortest day of the year and the Winter Solstice, a pagan Satanic holiday that pre-dates the Christian Christmas holiday. The situation at the border has already been so bad that last month Texas Governor Greg Abbott referred to the mass border crossings as an “invasion” and invoked the state’s “Invasion Clauses,” and is now deploying Texas Military and National Guard troops to the border with heavy artillery, including tanks. So please do not underestimate the seriousness of what is about to happen, as I did not use hyperbole in the headline for this article: this is going to be a FOREIGN INVASION on U.S. soil.
Russian Oil Exports Collapse More Than 50% As Exxon Shuns Tankers That Hauled Russian Crude
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 02:05 PM
Over the weekend we reported that oil exports of Russian ESPO-grade oil from the Pacific port of Kozmino had collapsed more than 50% following the implementation of the western oil price cap (which, paradoxically, was meant to only punish Putin for theatrical virtue-signaling purposes, while in reality it was hoped Russian oil flows would continue in a stable and predictable fashion to avoid further oil market shocks).
Today we learn that it wasn’t just Kozmino’s ESPO output: according to Bloomberg’s Julian Lee, all of Russia’s seaborne crude shipments collapsed in the first full week of G-7 sanctions targeting Moscow’s petroleum revenues, which while bad news for the Kremlin’s income statement is an even greater source of alarm for governments around the world seeking to avoid disruption to the nation’s giant export program.
As Lee reports, some of the plunge was exaggerated by work at a port in the Baltic that’s now finished, but there also is the previously reported shortage of ship owners willing to carry key cargoes from Kozmino, while several other ports also showed week-on-week declines.
Combining everything, the first full week after the EU ban on seaborne Russian crude imports came into effect, total volumes shipped from the nation dropped by 1.86 million barrels a day, or 54%, to 1.6 million. A less volatile four-week average also plunged, setting a new low for the year. Baltic Sea volumes should recover with work now ended, but the issues in the East may take longer to solve.
As an aside, BBG warns that the data must be treated carefully, because weekly flows are at the mercy of the timing of cargo scheduling, the weather, and even the quality of signals that the vessels themselves transmit. Indeed, maintenance at the key port of Primorsk cut shipments there to just three cargoes in the week to Dec. 16, down from a more normal weekly loading rate of about eight.
As for Kozmino, which we discussed over the weekend, the flow will recover, at least partially, in the week to Dec. 23, with three ships already loaded and two more berthed half way through the period. But, with a smaller fleet of ships available, volumes could remain erratic.
A bigger problem for Russia is whether China, India and Turkey will keep purchasing less Russian oil: as shown in the next chart, the volume of crude on vessels heading to China, India and Turkey, the three countries that have emerged as the only significant buyers of displaced Russian supplies, plus the quantities on ships that are yet to show a final destination, fell in the four weeks to Dec. 16 to average 2.53 million barrels a day. While that’s more than four times as high as the volume shipped in the four weeks immediately prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, it is the first time in five weeks that the amount has fallen. Inflows to the Kremlin’s war chest also slumped.
Amid the post-cap chaos, tankers hauling Russian crude are becoming more cagey about their final destinations. The volume of crude on vessels leaving the Baltic and showing their next destination as Egypt’s Port Said or the Suez Canal jumped to 686,000 barrels a day on a four-week average basis. It remains likely that many will begin to signal Indian ports once they pass through the waterway, while shipments to the United Arab Emirates are becoming more common.
This trend is only going to get worse: as Bloomberg reports in a separate report, the largest US major, Exxon Mobil, is avoiding hiring oil tankers that previously carried cargoes from Russia, putting itself in the same camp as Shell Plc with a move that pressures owners to choose whether to serve Moscow’s interests or not.
The US oil giant, which has repeatedly been in Joe Biden’s crosshairs for its “more money than god” (but was largely ignored when oil hit -$40 and many speculated that XOM could be facing insolvency in short notice) and will desperately seek to avoid any future confrontations, began asking that, from Dec. 5, shipowners must ensure the tankers on lease to Exxon haven’t carried crude cargoes which are either Russian, originated in Russia, or come from a person connected with Russia, a clause seen by Bloomberg shows. Failure to do so would allow Exxon to terminate the charter. The approach is similar to that of Shell, whose first preference is for ships that haven’t carried Russian crude in their last three cargoes.
Moves by such big firms magnify the pressure on ship owners to choose between serving Russian and non-Russian interests. Shipping firms intending to transport the nation’s barrels can already only get industry standard insurance and an array of other G-7 services if the cargoes they’re hauling cost $60 a barrel or less. The measures included a clause that if companies pay above $60 then they can’t access key EU services for the transportation of Russian cargoes for 90 days.
The Exxon clause doesn’t apply to Kazakhstan’s CPC oil, so long as the seller isn’t Russian or connected with Russia, and a Kazakh certificate of origin is received.
Exxon’s mandate expands from Feb. 5, 2023 to Russian oil products, with the same exception as above. That’s when further G-7 sanctions will kick in, affecting refined fuel markets.
As we reported previously, the G7 price cap triggered the emergence of a so-called dark fleet of tankers that are expected to be dedicated to servicing Russia’s interests. Moves like Exxon’s and Shell’s make it harder for those vessels to return to non-Russian business.
But the trigger event for chaos will be when oil prices rise enough to push Russian Urals, which is currently trading in the upper-$40s and is thus exempt from the G7 price cap, above $60. At that point, the cheapest and most abundant source of oil for Europe and Asia will be in breach of western sanctions and that’s when the real test of the oil price cap will take place: will western politicians ignore their entire virtue-signaling exercise (this would be their preferred course of action), or will they make it impossible for Urals oil to be shipped out, leading to a sudden and sharp collapse in oil output, and just as sharp spike in the price of all other oil.
END
8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.
Peru
END
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0630 UP .0021
USA/ YEN 132.53 DOWN 4.438/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN RISES//
GBP/USA 1.2148 DOWN 0.0006
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 33.35 PTS OR 1.07%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 258.01 POINTS OR 1.35%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.66% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 258.01 PTS OR 1.35%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.35 PTS OR 1.07%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.66%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 669.61% OR 2.46%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1805.50
silver:$23.66
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.67 DOWN .67 POINTS from MONDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..UP) AT 6.9620
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.9651
TURKISH LIRA: 18.66 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.393
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 10 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.681% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.733 UP 11 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 103.60 DOWN 0.75 PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 6.77 PTS OR 0.09%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 71.21 POINTS OR 0.51%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 28.13PTS OR 0.43%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 55.10 OR 0.08%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 2.15 PTS OR 0.01%
WTI Oil price 75.48 12: EST
Brent Oil: 79.24 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 68.87/ ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 15/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.301
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.6345 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0623 UP .0013 OR 13 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2174 UP .0018 or 18 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.6242% up 9 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 131.73 DOWN 5.24/YEN UP 524 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3613 DOWN 0.0029 (CDN dollar, UP 29 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 76.02
Brent OIL: 79.84
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 11 BASIS pts to 3.686%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 12 BASIS PTS to 3.738%
USA dollar index:103.63 DOWN 69 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.66
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 68.88 down 1 AND 16/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 92.20 PTS OR 0.28%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 21.46 PTS OR 0.96%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 21.46 DOWN 0.96 PTS (4.28)%
GLD: $169.10 UP 2.78 OR 1.69%
SLV/ $21.12 UP $1.11 OR 5.26%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
BoJ Goes Full ‘Leeroy Jenkins’ On Global Markets, US Stocks’ Worst December In Years Looms
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 04:01 PM
Kuroda shocked the markets with his ‘market function’ fix overnight by allowing yields to rise and stepping up his bond-buying game…
The overnight action by the BOJ prompted the biggest jump in the yen this century…
Source: Bloomberg
Which slammed the dollar back down to pre-FOMC levels…
Source: Bloomberg
Sending gold higher, with futures above $1825 (at recent resistance)…
Source: Bloomberg
And Bitcoin spiked on the BoJ news, then spiked again as the cash equity market opened (back above $17,000) before sliding back a little…
Source: Bloomberg
JGB yields exploded to their highest since 2015 – 10Y up 15bps – the biggest daily jump in yields since 2003…
Source: Bloomberg
Which dragged UST yields higher with 10Y Yields breaking up to 3.70% (highest in 3 weeks)…
Source: Bloomberg
US equity futures tanked on the headlines but had recovered by the cash market open (entirely ignoring seriously ugly housing data), then spent the day trying to hold on to gains. Nasdaq ended the day unchanged-ish while Small Caps outperformed…
TSLA tumbled over 7% today to its lowest since Nov 2020 (down 6 of the last 7 days and 10 of the last 12 days…
Source: Bloomberg
Amazon became the first company to lose $1 trillion in market cap today – the biggest loss in history…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX limped lower but remains broadly range-bound despite the swings in stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were all higher on the day but the short-end was a major outperformer (only up around 1bps compared to the rest of the curve up around 10bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices managed gains with WTI getting with a tick of $77 intraday…
Finally, as Bloomberg notes, December usually bodes well for the S&P 500 index, with 1.2% average gains seen over the past 30 years and just 14 negative occurrences over the past 50 years. Yet, due to pressure from hawkish central banks and recession risks, December 2022 is set to be an exception as one of the worst last months of the year for the US benchmark since 1957.
The index has dropped about 6% this month, on par with the losses sustained in December 2002 and only strongly outweighed by the year-end rout of 2018.
Source: Bloomberg
And after that things don’t look too rosy either as The New York Federal Reserve’s two probability models appear fairly convinced a recession is likely in 2023,
Source: Bloomberg
…with the one based on the yield curve surpassing the levels recorded ahead of the 1990 and 2020 contractions and approaching the Great Financial Crisis’ peak, Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper said in a note Tuesday.
EARLY MORNING TRADING//
EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING
ii) USA DATA
Another sign of a collapsing economy
(zerohedge)
US Building Permits Collapse In November, Multi-Family Plans Plunge
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 08:37 AM
After the dismal homebuilder sentiment data earlier in the week, it is no surprise that analysts expected a drop in both housing starts and building permits for November (the latest data) and they were right. While Housing Starts fell 0.5% MoM (better than the 1.8% drop expected) – as incentives dominated inventory liquidation, forward-looking building permits collapsed 11.2% MoM (vs -2.1% exp). That is the biggest MoM drop since the peak of the COVID lockdowns…
Source: Bloomberg
This leaves the total number of housing starts (SAAR) at the lowest since June 2020 for permits…
Source: Bloomberg
Housing Permits are down over 22% YoY – the biggest drop since 2009 (with single-family permits -29.7% YoY and multi-family down 10.7%)…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, this is the 9th straight month of single-family housing unit permits declines. But more notably multi-family permits plunged. On the Starts side, signle-family dropped for 8th month of the 9 while multi-family starts managed a small rise MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
Single-Family Permits dropped 7.1% from 841K SAAR to 781K, the lowest since May 2020. Multi-Family permits tumbled 17.9% from 620K to 509K, the lowest since May 2021.
Single-Family starts dropped 4.1% from 863K to 828K SAAR, lowest since May 2020. Multi-Family starts rose 4.8% from 557K to 584K, highest since April 2022.
Finally, circling back to the start of this note, we suspect building permits (forward-looking) face significantly more pressure as homebuilder expectations for future sales is at decade lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Is that really what Jay Powell wants?
end
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES.
A must read
Tom Luongo….
Rate-Hikes, Recessions, & The Death Of Spiritual Boomerism
I hate to gloat but, screw it. I’m gloating. With every FOMC meeting this year, Jerome Powell has become more and more hawkish, but the denial of this still dominates the headlines. He raised the Fed Funds Rate to 4.5% last week, a level unthinkable to nearly everyone, including me, this time last year.
I told you all over a year ago Powell and the Fed were going to war with Davos and the ECB over Climate Change and their push for war with Russia. No one believed me then, and rightfully so. The idea was daft given the Fed’s history, the US’s books and the reality of a “Biden” presidency seemingly hellbent on spending the US into oblivion.
Hell, I barely believed me.
What I did believe was the Fed would be more aggressive than the majority in even the alternative finance space did, what I like to think of as the Zerohedge Set, because I didn’t think Powell was just another garden-variety globalist like his predecessors, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke.
In this business, “personnel is policy” is more important than our opinions on the numbers or even the state of the game board. Powell isn’t cut from the same egghead, ivory tower cloth of academia like Yellen and Bernanke.
He’s a private equity guy with a real background in deal-making and assessing risk when his money or his client’s is on the line.
So, expecting him to run the Fed the way Yellen and Bernanke did is a simply a bad assumption.
Powell’s statement on Wednesday was no less hawkish at 4.5% than his statement at Jackson Hole in August before he raised rates by 75 basis points to 3.25% in September. And yet, in the days leading up to Wednesday’s announcement and even afterwards the talk was still all about how he can’t go much higher; this is the last hike before he stops.
In article after article that’s all we hear. Stop raising rates, it’s your fault you’re behind the curve, Powell. Stop trying to make up for it. This guy, Peter Tchir actually thinks a recession is avoidable? Maybe in nominal terms that’s possible. To the normie crowd goosing nominal GDP constantly to avoid ‘number go down’ at the expense of literally everything that makes private capital formation possible may seem like a good idea.
Then again, you may be a Boomer.
But in real terms, terms that matter like directing capital into sustainable investments rather than throwing money at any silly ‘shovel-ready’ project Obama’s minions can cook up in a strategy meeting to sell to the Muppets, the idea of avoiding a recession is ludicrous on the face of it.
If anything, in real terms for fourteen years we haven’t been in anything other than a drawn-out struggle session forcing us to admit under duress that yes, in fact, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus who lives in the Marriner-Eccles building and he can make two plus two equal five.
It’s all been a massive leveraged loan bubble built on trillions in the most egregious spending of future seed corn in the history of the planet. No wonder Climate Change and ‘sustainable growth’ are such an easy sell to the Millennials, they’ve never really known anything other than the debt casino.
To bitch now about Powell being behind the inflation curve is just churlish back seat driving.
As I pointed out time and again, Powell’s reappointment was the subject of intense political struggle on Capitol Hill. He was only reconfirmed 6 months after he should have been and was under direct fire before that.
The policy differences between “Biden” and Powell placed “Private Equity Jay” behind the curve not because he was too chickenshit to start sooner but because “Biden” needed an excuse to not re-nominate him as FOMC chair. Raising rates in anticipation of incoming inflation while wrangling over “Build Back Better” and its $6+ trillion in spending would have given us Lael Brainard, MMT and UBI to eternity.
And the US dollar bears would have rejoiced in having been right all along while Davos grinned like the proverbial Cheshire Cat eating all the canaries.
This willful blindness to the politics of monetary policy is bad enough. But the whining about taking the punch bowl away is just selfishness masquerading as analysis. Like it or not, Powell had no choice but to monetize COVID-19 spending. That’s on Congress and Trump.
I’m happy to lay blame at the Fed’s feet, but only when that blame is appropriate. Congress doesn’t get to blackmail the Fed AND blame them for the country’s ills at the same time.
And this is why I’m gloating today. Because I’m sick to death of this “Spiritual Boomerism” rampant within the financial commentary space that believes recession is the dirtiest word in the English language and avoiding them is the Fed’s real job, even if it costs us our souls.
As I wrote last year:
… because we all want to believe we’re smarter than average bear and don’t want to face tomorrow without our favorite things we go along with the comfortable lie [we have mastered time risk].
In other words, we believe risk is someone else’s problem. And that we owe the debts to ourselves. And it’s okay to foist risk off on those hapless suckers lestwe be inconvenienced by the barest minimum of privation.
Let’s call that, in the words of a friend of mine, Spiritual Boomerism.
That Spiritual Boomerism is fed every day by Davos and their flunkies in FinTwit, like Jim Cramer, Paul Krugman and every other dickhead out there talking their book. Davos needs to stop Powell and the NY Banks from upsetting their plans to turn the future into a Phildickian nightmare of total surveillance, 100% tax compliance and the ultimate veto over your economic and, if they get their way, reproductive choices.
If you think things suck now, just wait for the Great Ennui that comes with the Great Reset.
It’s a pernicious narrative woven into the fabric of our daily lives. Davos helped erect this central bank dominated world which undermined our cultural and spiritual strength, addicting us to this idea of consumption without purpose and risk without consequence.
We had the chance in 2008 to flush this system and chose not to. We papered everything over and created the most perverse version of an economy in 2000 years.
We got to process our grief at losing everything during that crisis by going to negative real yields for so long we began to believe that we conquered time itself.
No idea was beyond the pale when the cost of money had no meaning.
And it led us to today where it is the right of 6 year-olds to mutilate themselves without parental consent, all in the name of fighting a goddamned patriarchy we could only wish was still somewhat functional.
It ground forward for another fourteen years accelerating the insanity to the point of identity crisis at a cultural level. There is no idea more indicative of Spiritual Boomerism than that of inflation being inherently better than deflation.
And that’s what drives all of this angst over Powell’s refusal to ‘pivot’ off raising rates. Gods forbid the assholes in power have to give up their third home or the second Bentley. At the rate the two are deflating in Powell’s New America, I’m not sure which one will be worth more in a year.
But the worst part about all of this Boomerist denial is it allowed the ECB’s Christine Lagarde to run the ultimate bluff for more than a year about its truly insane monetary policy, ignoring inflation that we could all see but didn’t want to believe was real.
Because the alternative was realizing that King Dollar had another round left in the tank before getting knocked out by the Global South’s plans to de-dollarize completely.
Since Powell began raising rates in March, EU energy policy dramatically raised the cost of domestic energy. That inflation is a feature, not a bug. And it can’t be fixed. With each sanctions package against Russia (now 9 in total…) Europe’s energy story became more ludicrous and yet the markets kept pricing risk like the US was in worse shape.
Look, I get that Pelosi is a scary old broad, but c’mon!
Lagarde kept putting off the day of reckoning. In July she offset the fall of Italy’s Davos government with announcing the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), which is basically Operation Twist for internal Euro-zone debt. At the same meeting she raised rates for the first time.
She should have called it the Toilet Paper Initiative, because that’s what it will do to the euro.
So, like Kuroda at the Bank of Japan, she committed to QE forever and tightening…. simultaneously!
And the markets believed her while continuing to disbelieve Powell.
To say it was bizarre is the height of understatement.
Well, that finally came to an end last week. And this is really why I’m gloating today.
Lagarde finally had to admit that inflation was no longer transitory and that the ECB’s long-run projections of inflation to end this year were nowhere near reality.
While everyone was hoping Powell would only go 25 basis points because US CPI came in 0.2% lower than expectations at 7.1%, no one looked at Germany’s CPI coming in above expectations at 10% just four hours earlier.
Until Lagarde finally admitted she’d lost the inflation battle she wasn’t even fighting, US/German credit spreads still traded like she was competent and Powell wasn’t.
At this point it’s offensive to think that this neck scarf obsessed lawyer has a sharper economic mind than Jerome Powell.
It’s equally offensive to see German debt trading at a 130-140 basis point premium to US debt, given relative inflation rates, energy policies and strength of currencies. Honestly, euro-zone debt is trading like the EU has a trade surplus and a vibrant middle class. These are both lies.
But such is the power of propaganda. Illusions die painful deaths because of the management of perspective that goes on every day.
Lagarde bought herself a few months reprieve with the TPI, but eventually had to admit the truth. Today she still has to choose between defending the euro or defending credit spreads. She can’t do both.
Why does anyone believe she can do either?
Speaking of truth, if there was any in these markets, the US/German 10-year yield spread would be negative rather than positive. On what planet does anyone think, on the eve of wider war in Ukraine, that Germany is a more stable political force than the US?
Because German Greens are such a powerful international force for growth?
I thought bond traders were serious people. Guess not.
After months of my fighting the narrative that the EU has no agency in the policy surrounding Russia and Ukraine, I have to ask the following question: If you truly believe the EU is a vassal state to the US, why aren’t you putting your money where your mouth is?
Why aren’t you buying US debt faster than German debt?
What kept you from making the move?
Or is it that you really understand Davos is mostly in control over US fiscal policy (true) and think they’ll be successful in sabotaging the Fed’s attempts at independence through aggressive monetary tightening (up for grabs)?
That’s honestly the only conclusion I’ve got for why it’s taken this long for everyone to figure out that Lagarde is full of shit, has no cards to play, and is now on the precipice of the biggest bankruptcy in the history of modern banking.
If you think I’ll cry one crocodile tear over the death of the ECB’s credibility in the coming weeks, I have bridge-front property to sell you in Brooklyn.
Powell didn’t embark on this path to salvage his personal credibility. He’s worth nine figures, FFS. This is something fundamentally different that that.
My best guess is that it is exactly what I’ve said it was from the beginning, a fight for the future of capital formation. Either we return somewhat to it being handled by private capital markets or we reach the end state of the past 80 years and the apotheosis of central banking.
Looking ahead, I’d watch the US 2/10 spread to see if this month’s tightening takes hold for real. We’re at -67 bps. A move above -65 this week would be technically interesting.
It might actually be the sign that Spiritual Boomerism is on the wane as more people accept what’s happening.
Powell’s not coming to our rescue. The Fed isn’t our friend. The Fed Put was only a slightly dumber idea than Climate Change being caused by anthropogenic CO2.
The quicker these bad ideas die the quicker we can face our future, bleak though it may be, honestly. And maybe we can put away the childishness of thinking a world without risk is in anyone’s best interests.
end
This is something that we must pay attention to: the spike in Fed discount windwo usage. This means someone(30 small banks) is/are in troube and hints at a looming bank
crisis
(zerohedge)
Spike In Fed Discount Window Usage Hints At Looming Bank Crisis
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 10:00 PM
Six months after the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening started, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk by just over $400 billion, less than 10% of its massive expansion in the post-covid era when it nearly doubled in just days $4 trillion to $7 trillion, and then grew another $2 trillion over the next year.
Digging a bit deeper into the balance sheet composition, we find that high-powered money-equivalents, i.e., reserves, are just over $3.1 trillion, while the far more inert reverse repos (which are a byproduct of extremely excessive liquidity creation and/or counterparty and risk avoidance) are a more modest $2.13 trillion…
… with reserves declining by $1 trillion in the past year, as reverse repos actually increased by half that number.
And while one can debate the nuances of an $8.5 trillion Fed balance sheet, or the reserve/reverse ratio relationship until one is blue in the face, one thing is certain: now that the world has been in an “ample reserve” framework since the launch of QE1, there are certain things that are not supposed to happen: one of them is the use of the Fed’s emergency USD swap line. If, however, such an instrument is used, as was the case in mid-October, we can immediately deduce that some bank is suffering a crushing USD-funding squeeze (one whose risk is greater than the risk of being slapped with the stigma of using a FX swap). That’s precisely what happened with Swiss bank giant Credit Suisse, which we subsequently learned was being crushed by an $88 billion bank run, and only the secret backdoor bailout of the SNB and the Fed kept it solvent (preventing a far greater financial crisis).
Another instrument that should never be used in an ample-reserve world, is the Fed’s Discount Window: this “archaic” secured rescue loan arrangement, one in which banks obtain emergency liquidity from the Fed in exchange for loans, is a legacy of the pre-Lehman era, when its mere usage was enough to spark a terminal bank run for any recipient bank. One can argue that the launch of QE was specifically designed to reduce and/or eliminate the use of the discount window by US banks (after all, the post-2009 tidal wave of Fed-created reserves effectively assures that every US financial institution is swimming in money). That, together with the famous “discount window stigma” effect when the mere speculation one is using emergency loans from the Fed was enough to spark a bank run, is why there were zero discount window borrowings until March 2020 when the entire financial system almost collapse again, yet when a relatively modest $50BN in discount window borrowings forced the Fed to unleash multiple daily multi-trillion repo operations, and hundreds of billions in daily and weekly liquidity injections in the form of QE. Yes, the discount window usage in 2020 quickly faded away but not before the Fed’s balance sheet doubled again, from $4 trillion to $8 trillion.
The problem is that if one fast forwards to today, the discount window is again being used aggressively, and in the last week was just over $6.2 billion, after peaking at $9.5 billion, two weeks ago, the most since June 2020.
The spike in Discount Window usage has even stumped JPMorgan whose rates strategist Teresa Ho wrote last Friday (her full must-read thoughts available to pro subs) echoed our thoughts above on the “Ample reserve” framework, noting that “there are still over $3tn of reserves and over $2tn of cash at the Fed’s ON RRP, so in no way does this suggest there are systemic liquidity concerns. Indeed, that wholesale funding rates have remained well-behaved even heading into the final weeks of the year suggests as such”, and yet “it is surprising that in spite of the available amount liquidity in the system, usage at the discount window still increased. Borrowing at the discount window is often seen as a last resort for banks in terms of sourcing funding, and hence there is an implicit stigma associated with it. Whether that stigma is justified or not is an open question.”
Some more details from JPM:
This year’s uptick in the discount window is associated with primary credit—available to banks that are in “generally sound financial condition,” with no restrictions on the use of funds borrowed under primary credit according to the Fed. The loan must be collateralized with eligible securities (generally investment grade or AAA for securitized securities) and/or loans (generally performing, to domestic entities only). In March 2020, to encourage the use of the discount window, the Fed narrowed the spread of the primary credit rate relative to the general level of overnight rates and extended the line of credit up to 90 days, prepayable and renewable by the borrower on a daily basis. Since then, the primary credit rate has been set at the upper bound of the fed funds target range.
So what’s behind the spike in discount window borrowings? According to JPM, there are several theories.
The first revolves around increases in funding pressures among small banks as QT continues in the background. To that end, it’s possible that, regardless of stigma, to raise liquidity, some small banks are finding rates at the window economically more attractive than either accessing the fed funds market or borrowing from FHLB, particularly if they are able to borrow term at the discount window. Indeed, the primary credit rate was set at 4.0% (pre-FOMC), which was 17bp above EFFR but 30-70bp below where they can borrow in 1m and 3m FHLB advances. Furthermore, JPM notes that the timing of the increase appears to have been somewhat correlated to the crypto market, particularly in November after news of the FTX fallout emerged.
There is a second plausible theory: this year’s aggressive Fed tightening has generated substantial losses on banks’ securities portfolios. As reflected in AOCI, where changes in the market value of bonds in AFS portfolios are captured, US banks have cumulatively lost ~$770bn YTD (Exhibit 5). These losses, while unrealized, have significantly reduced banks’ equity, and in some cases reduced to a level such that tangible common equity has fallen into negative territory. This is the case particularly among smaller banks. Based on S&P data, JPMorgan found that ~30 banks, most of which have total assets of <$1bn, reported negative tangible common equity as of 3Q22, an increase from 11 banks in 2Q22, and 0 banks in 1Q22.
Why does this matter? Well, as JPM explains, FHFA currently has a requirement that directs FHLBs to use tangible equity—which includes unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities—in assessing a bank’s credit worthiness for purposes of issuing advances. In the event that a bank does not meet the required tangible capital levels, it could be denied access to the FHLB advance system unless a primary federal regulator says otherwise. (As a side note, the industry is trying get FHFA to amend the assessment framework from using tangible capital to regulatory capital, which would exclude market swings). As a result, to the extent the small banks need liquidity and they cannot turn to the FHLB system for borrowing, they might have to resort to the discount window for sudden, unexpected liquidity needs.
Translation: there are ~30 banks that are effectively insolvent and are only kept alive thanks to the Fed’s emergency funding. Whether or not these banks fail, and whether their failure leads to a cascade of adverse events, remains to be seen. Unfortunately, absent a chain of defaults which reveals who the crippled banks are, we won’t know for sure the entities behind the discount window spike until the Fed releases transaction data on the discount window two years later.
Finally, it is also worth noting that the substantial losses on banks’ securities portfolios – thanks to the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes – are creating not only capital issues, but potential liquidity issues as well. As we have discussed previously, with QT occurring in the background, liquidity is being drained from the system, deposits are declining (albeit predominately at large banks so far), funding pressures are gradually rising, and borrowing costs are increasing.
To the extent sudden liquidity needs arise, there is a question as to whether banks would have to sell their securities to meet their liquidity needs, which in so doing would negatively impact banks’ capital levels. Also, LCR is calculated based on the market value of banks’ HQLA portfolio as a percentage of their net cash outflows under 30 days. All else equal, losses on banks’ securities portfolios would contribute to a deterioration in LCR (i.e., the numerator shrinks). As a result, banks would have to lever up to increase their HQLA to remain compliant with LCR rules. Here, JPM believe this has been one of the reasons contributing to the rise in FHLB advances this year. That is, banks have been raising liquidity via FHLBs not necessarily because they have lost liquidity and need to replace it, but rather in anticipation of potential liquidity needs in hopes of not having to sell their securities and to maintain/improve their LCRs.
If all that sounds like a lot of financial jargon, then please ignore it – unless the discount window usage spikes again in coming weeks, it is likely that whatever event prompted one or more banks to quietly demand a bailout from the Fed, will pass. On the other hand, the message sent from the spike in discount window usage is ominous: no matter how one spins it, it suggests that as many as 30 small banks are now insolvent, and could represent the weakest link that – like the relatively small Terra/Luna implosion cascaded to the collapse of FTX and the wholesale deleveraging of the entire crypto ecosystem – leads to an violent and painful deleveraging of the entire US financial system.
The full must-read JPM note available to pro subs in the usual place.
end
By goodness: this is a big hit on Wells Fargo
(zerohedge)
Wells Fargo Ordered To Pay $3.7 Billion Over Widespread Illegal Activity
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 09:13 AM
Wells Fargo has been ordered to pay $3.7 billion by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) for a variety of illegal activity, including wrongfully foreclosing on homes, illegally repossessing vehicles, incorrectly assessing fees and interest, and charging surprise overdraft fees.
The activity affected more than 16 million consumer accounts.
The fine consists of more than $2 billion in redress to customers, and a $1.7 billion civil penalty.
“Wells Fargo’s rinse-repeat cycle of violating the law has harmed millions of American families,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. “The CFPB is ordering Wells Fargo to refund billions of dollars to consumers across the country. This is an important initial step for accountability and long-term reform of this repeat offender.”
According to today’s enforcement action, Wells Fargo harmed millions of consumers over a period of several years, with violations across many of the bank’s largest product lines. The CFPB’s specific findings include that Wells Fargo:
Unlawfully repossessed vehicles and bungled borrower accounts: Wells Fargo had systematic failures in its servicing of automobile loans that resulted in $1.3 billion in harm across more than 11 million accounts. The bank incorrectly applied borrowers’ payments, improperly charged fees and interest, and wrongfully repossessed borrowers’ vehicles. In addition, the bank failed to ensure that borrowers received a refund for certain fees on add-on products when a loan ended early.
Improperly denied mortgage modifications: During at least a seven-year period, the bank improperly denied thousands of mortgage loan modifications, which in some cases led to Wells Fargo customers losing their homes to wrongful foreclosures. The bank was aware of the problem for years before it ultimately addressed the issue.
Illegally charged surprise overdraft fees: For years, Wells Fargo unfairly charged surprise overdraft fees – fees charged even though consumers had enough money in their account to cover the transaction at the time the bank authorized it – on debit card transactions and ATM withdrawals. As early as 2015, the CFPB, as well as other federal regulators, including the Federal Reserve, began cautioning financial institutions against this practice, known as authorized positive fees.
Unlawfully froze consumer accounts and mispresented fee waivers: The bank froze more than 1 million consumer accounts based on a faulty automated filter’s determination that there may have been a fraudulent deposit, even when it could have taken other actions that would have not harmed customers. Customers affected by these account freezes were unable to access any of their money in accounts at the bank for an average of at least two weeks. The bank also made deceptive claims as to the availability of waivers for a monthly service fee.
Under the Consumer Financial Protection Act, the CFPB has the authority to take action against institutions violating federal consumer financial laws, including by engaging in unfair, deceptive, or abusive acts or practices. The CFPB’s investigation found that Wells Fargo violated the Act’s prohibition on unfair and deceptive acts and practices.
The CFPB order requires Wells Fargo to:
Provide more than $2 billion in redress to consumers: Wells Fargo will be required to pay redress totaling more than $2 billion to harmed customers. These payments represent refunds of wrongful fees and other charges and compensation for a variety of harms such as frozen bank accounts, illegally repossessed vehicles, and wrongfully foreclosed homes. Specifically, Wells Fargo will have to pay:
More than $1.3 billion in consumer redress for affected auto lending accounts.
More than $500 million in consumer redress for affected deposit accounts, including $205 million for illegal surprise overdraft fees.
Nearly $200 million in consumer redress for affected mortgage servicing accounts.
Stop charging surprise overdraft fees: Wells Fargo may not charge overdraft fees for deposit accounts when the consumer had available funds at the time of a purchase or other debit transaction, but then subsequently had a negative balance once the transaction settled. Surprise overdraft fees have been a recurring issue for consumers who can neither reasonably anticipate nor take steps to avoid them.
Ensure auto loan borrowers receive refunds for certain add-on fees: Wells Fargo must ensure that the unused portion of GAP contracts, a type of debt cancellation contract that covers the remaining amount of the borrower’s auto loan in the case of a major accident or theft, is refunded to the borrower when a loan is paid off or otherwise terminates early.
Pay $1.7 billion in penalties: Wells Fargo will pay a $1.7 billion penalty to the CFPB, which will be deposited into the CFPB’s victims relief fund.
Texas Border Towns Prepare For Migrant Wave With Shipping Containers And Razor Wire
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 08:00 PM
Even with the Supreme Court temporarily extending a Trump-era policy that bars asylum applicants from entering the U.S. to protect the American population from Covid-19, the Federal Government has offered no viable solutions and little to no help to southern border states to stop a growing wave of illegal immigrants. White House officials continue to deny that there is a legitimate problem while also claiming they have been “doing the work since day one” to secure the border. States and border towns are now left to deal with the threat on their own.
Title 42 is a law established in 2020 by Donald Trump which coincided with the governments covid pandemic response. It requires Border Patrol and law enforcement to immediately transfer apprehended illegal immigrants back across the border instead of allowing them to stay within the US while awaiting courts to rule on their citizenship status. Using the guise of “asylum seeker,” millions of migrants are crossing the border in an attempt to remain in the country with access to welfare benefits and amenities.
As we have seen in places like El Paso, there is also the ongoing problem of Democrat controlled “sanctuary cities” that have refused to cooperate with an overall state run response. This past week the Mayor of El Paso, Oscar Leeser, finally admitted that the region is facing an emergency, which means he will be begging for relief funds but still will not do anything to stop migrants from flooding in. According to public data, more than 80,000 migrants have invaded El Paso in the last four months.
Leeser warned that after Title 42 ends on December 21st the number of migrants released onto city streets will be “incredible” – Up to 6000 per day or more. El Paso has requested additional personnel for feeding and housing operations, additional busing operations and state law enforcement.
Border towns with no prevention operations and those that act as sanctuaries will undoubtedly be overrun in a matter of days once Title 42 expires. In some cases (like El Paso) they are already being overrun. Some towns in Texas are starting to realize the gravity of the situation and they are taking action along with state officials, with local news reporting efforts to quickly build make-shift border walls with shipping containers and razor wire:
While this is better than nothing, the effects of the end of Title 42 are not being properly conveyed to the general public by the government or the media and it is likely that the border crisis will erupt to new levels over the course of the next few months going into Spring 2023. The conditions for a humanitarian disaster are stacked like dominoes; a perfect storm that the American public will be hearing about on the news daily next year, but only after the damage has already been done.
end
US Border Cities Panic As End Of Trump-Era Immigration Policy Looms
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 06:55 AM
Even with the Supreme Court’s temporary block, Towns along the US southern border – particularly El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez in Mexico, are going into panic mode as a Trump-era immigration law is set to expire this week, which could lead to as many as 5,000 or more new migrants per day pouring across into the United States, according to the Associated Press.
On Sunday, El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego told AP that the region, one of the busiest border crossings in the country, was scrambling to coordinate relocation efforts with groups and other cities, and have reached out to state and federal officials for humanitarian aid, as the Trump-era Title 42 is set to end on Wednesday – a rule which has deterred an estimated 2.5 million migrants from coming into the US since March, 2000.
“You have a lot of pent-up pain,” said Dylan Corbett, director of the Hope Border Institute, a Catholic organization helping migrants in both El Paso and Juarez, which started a clinic two months ago. “I’m afraid of what’s going to happen.“
On Saturday, El Paso Mayor Oscar Leeser, a Democrat, issued a state of emergency to gain access to additional local and state resources to help with the surge. The funds will be used to build shelters and provide other ‘urgently needed’ assistance.
According to Judge Samaniego, the order came one day after El Paso officials asked Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in a letter for assistance for the region – which would include taking care of and relocating newly arrived migrants, vs. sending additional security forces.
El Paso officials have been coordinating with organizations to provide temporary housing for migrants while they are processed and given sponsors and relocate them to bigger cities where they can be flown or bused to their final destinations, Samaniego said. As of Wednesday, they will all join forces at a one-stop emergency command center, Samaniego said, similarly to their approach to the COVID-19 emergency.
Abbott has committed billions of dollars to “Operation Lone Star,” an unprecedented border security effort that has included busing migrants to so-called sanctuary cities like New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., as well as a massive presence of state troopers and National Guard along the Texas-Mexico border.
Additionally, the Republican Texas governor has pushed continued efforts to build former President Donald Trump’s wall using mostly private land along the border and crowdsourcing funds to help pay for it. -AP
According to the report, El Paso was the 5th busiest immigration corridor out of the Border Patrol’s nine sectors as recently as March, and jumped to #1 in October ahead of Del Rio, Texas.
end
Texas power grid faces a crucial moment ahead of single digit temperatures
(zerohedge)
Texas Power Grid Faces Crucial Moment Ahead Of Single Digit Temperatures
MONDAY, DEC 19, 2022 – 08:40 PM
Forecasters are warning that a potent Arctic airmass could plunge temperatures across Texas to single digits later this week. Temperatures in Texas’s Permian Basin could dip to 25 F by late Friday, risking the potential for freeze-offs that could curtail the flow of natural gas. The blast of cold air comes just 22 months after the early 2021 cold wave that collapsed Lone Star State’s power grid.
One weather model via PivitolWeather forecasts single digits in a large swath of Texas on Friday.
The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC), a commission responsible for assessing power risks, warned that cold could stress the electrical grid in Texas.
“The effect it can have on generators — and the way demand can rise sharply in cold weather — can lead to load risk,” Mark Olson, a reliability manager at NERC, said, who was quoted by Bloomberg.
According to Houston-based NatGas research firm Criterion Research, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — the state’s grid operator — expects power demand to rise to over 61 gigawatts on Friday, which would come close to summer loads and most prior winter showings.
A massive cold stress test for ERCOT appears to be imminent. Here’s more from Criterion:
ERCOT formally issued an “Operating Condition Notice (OCN)” ahead of this week’s winter weather that will run from December 22-26. The OCN goes into effect when temperatures fall below 25 degrees for the Austin/San Antonio and DFW areas. ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas cited that “As we monitor weather conditions, we want to assure Texans that the grid is resilient and reliable.”
ERCOT’s latest load forecast is extreme, with the ISO expecting demand to rise to >61 GW on December 23, which rivals summer loads and most prior winter showings.
Regional load will push above 50 GW as the front moves in on Thursday, and the demand will be most intense on Friday.
Currently, wind is projected to reach a 12/22 level of 22 GW before dropping the following day (12/23) to 12 GW and then to 4.5 GW on 12/24.
If this forecast holds for wind & total load, ERCOT will need its fossil fuel assets to ramp to 45 GW during the peak cold.
ERCOT’s fossil fuel assets are certainly capable of 45-50 GW in demand, and the upcoming system is only bringing cold weather rather than the winter precipitation we saw during Winter Storm Uri.
Bitterly cold temperatures in the coming days will test ERCOT’s winterization upgrades since the grid collapse in 2021.
end
Another indicator of a huge downturn in the uSA economy
(zerohedge)
General Mills’ Sliding Sales Volumes Flash Latest Warning
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 10:00 AM
As Bloomberg’s Felice Maranz points out this morning, another big consumer-facing company just reported a sharp decline in sales volumes, sending a warning signal for corporate bottom lines.
Sales volumes – which are one half of the revenue equation along with price – are sliding, as the inflation which has helped firms raise their prices is starting to cool. For now, price increases have propped up profits, even with shrinking volumes. But weakening pricing power ahead, along with accelerating declines in volume, spells trouble for equities.
Food manufacturer General Mills – which owns such asbrand as Pillsbury, Yoplait, Haagen-Dazs, Cheerios, Betty Croker and Blue Buffalo – is the worst S&P 500 performer ahead of the bell after reporting a greater-than-anticipated organic sales volume drop, even as adjusted EPS and net sales topped estimates. Total 2Q organic net sales volume fell 6% while prices rose 17% — resulting in 11% organic net sales growth.
As Maranz warns, that combination looks unsustainable, even if food inflation keeps outpacing other categories. (Food prices climbed “only” 0.5% in November.)
Last month, packaged-food peer Kellogg also reported contracting organic volume, while cleaning supplies firm Clorox sank after volumes (labeled the worst by far of the earnings season) tumbled. At the time, that raised questions about plans for further price hikes. Deteriorating volumes on higher pricing were in focus at Colgate-Palmolive and PepsiCo.
As Maranz concludes, watch for more signals about macro conditions as companies that reported surprisingly poor results last quarter are due to release results this week, including FedEx and Nike after the bell.
General Mills shares dropped as much as 5.4%, the most intraday since May 18 after analysts cited concern over continued volume declines reported in the packaged food company’s second-quarter earnings release. On the call, GIS said it plans to raise prices again in early calendar 2023.
Here is a snapshot of a couple of sellside reactions to the company’s disappointing results:
Bloomberg Intelligence
“Concerns about 1H volume declines for all segments except North American Foodservice may rise as it becomes harder to execute more price increases to sustain top- line growth,” analyst Jennifer Bartashus writes
In addition, the historically strong Pet category has been “lackluster on capacity and retailer inventory declines and needs to improve in 2H,” she says
Barclays (equal-weight, PT $80)
“A much weaker-than- expected Pet segment result held back what would otherwise have been much greater upside” in sales and margin, writes analyst Andrew Lazar
GIS’s flat y/y organic sales growth in Pet, due to continued capacity constraints and unexpected retailer inventory destocking, compared to his 10% growth estimate
Margin recovery appears “well underway,” with gross margin expanding more than expected, which Lazar views as a positive read across for the broader food group
USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//DERIVATIVES
END
Fed’s new inflation idex shows rent slowing and this will have a huge effect on inflation
(zerohedge)
Fed’s New Inflation Index Shows Rent Slowing Sharply, Setting Stage For Fed Pivot
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 03:22 PM
There are two things that need to happen for the Fed to stop hiking and pivot (or just one if the Fed were to raise its inflation target, which will happen but not for several years as Powell himself admitted last week): first, the labor market has to turn decidedly weaker with both the pace of monthly payrolls increase and hourly earnings having to come down drastically; and second, inflation has to drop sharply on a Y/Y basis and has to at worst flatten sequentially.
Regarding the first, we are almost there. Recall that as we first reported last week, the Philly Fed had effectively revised what was according to the BLS a gain of 1.1 million jobs to just 10,500 jobs, meaning that the Fed was looking at erroneously overstated, arguably politicized data, as it unleashed its burst of 75bps rate hikes in June… which happened just as June jobs number turned negative.
A few days after our report, politicians also jumped on the bandwagon with Florida Senator Rick Scott writing a letter to BLS Commissioner William Beach, noting that Biden has used data from his agency to support his agenda and policies.
“For the better part of his presidency, while the American economy has struggled and record inflation has brought historic pain to families and small businesses across the country, President Joe Biden has consistently bragged about job growth”, Scott wrote adding that “now, thanks to the good work of analysts at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, we know that the BLS inaccurately reported the creation more than one million jobs, and that much of what President Biden has claimed credit for as the economic achievements for his administration is a lie.”
Today even Bloomberg, which is traditionally pro-Biden, admitted that the Fed “may be watching bad jobs data”…
… assuring it is now just a matter of time before the BLS is forced to admit its data was “wrong” (let’s avoid calling it “rigged” and “manipulated” for now) and sparking a dramatic reappraisal of what the true state of the economy was when the Fed was busy hiking up a storm.
Fine, jobs may be about to crack but what about inflation: isn’t that still red hot and giving the Fed enough cover to keep policy tight for months to come.
Well, no.
Recall that back in October we explained that when it comes to measuring inflation, the Fed is looking at inaccurate and stale data, the result of Shelter Inflation and Owner Equivalent Rent – the biggest chunk of the CPI basket – being about 9-12 months behind the curve when it comes to what is really taking place in the housing market.
Indeed, as we said in “Why Te CPI Is Making The Same Huge Mistake Now It Did One Year Ago“, the time to panic about soaring rent was one year ago – as we did back in September 2021 – but not the Fedwhich was busy spreading the fake propaganda belief that inflation was transitory (it wasn’t, and it’s why the Fed is desperate to start a recession now to short circuit both inflation and the wage-price spiral). Since than all that happened this year is that the BLS has finally just caught up to reality 6-9 months ago, when rents and home prices were indeed soaring… meanwhile, real life rents are now dropping sharply across the country as the US slides into recession.
We also said that all else equal, “the Fed will realize it has overtightened into a housing market that has peaked some time in the summer of 2023. By then, however, the economy will be in freefall and the central bank will be planning its next massive stimulus because just as we said in January, nothing really ever changes.”
Which brings us to today’s topic: while on one hand the Philly Fed provided Jerome Powell and the BLS with the loophole they need to admit that the jobs market was far weaker ‘than expected’ (because heaven forbid it was meant to paint a false picture of economic strength ahead of the midterms), it is the Cleveland Fed that this week provided a “rationalization” to the persistently high inflation print.
Here’s what happened: to quietly set aside the notorious inaccurate Owners Equivalent Rent (which is based on data from all renters, not just new renters, and includes rollovers of historical rents), researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Bureau of Labor Statistics built an index that’s based only on the leases of tenants who recently moved in – a shortcut meant to avoid the traditional lag in the CPI’s historic rent metrics – and compared it with the conventional measure which looks at the average of rents for all tenants, to wit:
We create new indices from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) rent microdata using a repeat-rent index methodology and show that this discrepancy is almost entirely explained by differences in rent growth for new tenants relative to the average rent growth for all tenants. Rent inflation for new tenants leads the official BLS rent inflation by four quarters. As rent is the largest component of the consumer price index, this has implications for our understanding of aggregate inflation dynamics and guiding monetary policy.
The researchers cited an ongoing debate over whether the headline inflation numbers should use housing data based on the entire rental market, or new tenants only. The former covers the financial experience of a much wider range of people, while the latter is better at capturing the latest shifts in market prices.
Here is a visual representation of why the new tenant repeat index is far more accurate than the stale “all tenant” index, at least when compared to such market-based indices as Zillow and Apartment List:
The results of the Cleveland Fed paper – it will come as a shock to precisely nobody – show the new-tenant index is now plunging from a peak around 12%. The researchers also “found” what we first said last summer, namely that there is a 12 month lag for legacy “all renter” data which is why the Fed is always so woefully wrong at timing inflection points; bottom line: the new-tenant data tends to run ahead of BLS housing measures in the consumer price index by about one year (in other words it is an accurate approximation of real-time data), while for the all-tenant measure the gap is about one quarter.
To be sure, the Cleveland Fed researchers discovered nothing new (we already wrote extensively in this topic two months ago when we laid out Goldman’s thoughts on the issue in “This Is What Goldman Thinks True Rent Inflation Is“), they merely codified what everyone already knew, and more importantly there is now a benchmark for Powell to fall back to if and when he has to build the case for why inflation is far lower than what the CPI discloses.
For that reason alone, the praise from the career economist community was fast and furious: the new index built by the Fed and BLS teams (but really by Goldman) “might be the single most important new inflation indicator” right now, said Joseph Politano at Apricitas Economics.
Others, such as Adam Ozimek of Modeled Behavior (who also never read the original Goldman report that the Cleveland Fed report is based on) said that the updated BLS/Fed paper on market rents vs average rents is “Arguably most important paper in the world rn.”
But what is really going on here, however, is that this new rent inflation index is being aggressively institutionalized, and in doing so it is providing the Fed with cover to “determine” that not only was the BLS wrong in its “estimate” of strong jobs data, but that the rent inflation numbers the Fed was relying on were also overcooked, and in reality a more indicative sample using just new renter data would push the CPI much lower.
Of course, none of this would be necessary if the Fed simply had the guts to tell the world it will push its inflation target up to 3% (or more). However, since that is impossible – at least right now – various Feds are busy moving the goalposts, and after first “discovering” that the US had more than 1 million fewer jobs (crushing the strong jobs market narrative), it has also just “discovered” that the rent inflation number in the CPI which the Fed had used for so long, was substantially higher than the real number, which by the way, is something we have been saying for the past 18 months.
All that’s left now is for the Fed to put two and two together and admit it has overtightened into a recession. We expect that it will take one or more phone calls from Joe Biden, Liz Warren…
… but we will certainly be there within a month or two.
end
This is hug Fed Ex is a terrific bellwether: it misses on revenue and trims outlooks on continued demand weakness.
FedEx Misses On Revenue; Cuts Another Billion In Costs; Trims Outlook On “Continued Demand Weakness”
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 04:29 PM
After last quarter’s epic debacle which some say was the official start of the recession, many were looking to the earnings out of logistics giant FedEx to either cement the base case for an economic slowdown or offer some glimmer of hope that the worst may be behind us. Well, having looked at the company’s fiscal Q2 results, we can safely say that the worst is not behind us.
First, the good news:
Adjusted EPS came in at $3.18, beating the consensus estimate of $2.80 if sharply lower than the $4.83 a hear ago.
Adjusted operating income also came in somewhat stronger at $1.21BN, well above the estimate of $987.9 million, if also sharply lower than the $1.68 billion a year ago.
That was thanks to the adjusted operating margin coming in at 5.3%, far above the 4.15% estimate, and that too was far below the 7.1% one year ago.
Then the bad news:
Revenue of $22.8 billion missed expectations of $23.8 billion, and was down from $23.5 billion a year ago
FedEx said it is “prioritizing actions to quickly reduce costs in order to align fiscal 2023 costs with weaker-than-expected volume” and has “identified an incremental $1 billion in cost savings beyond its September forecast, and now expects to generate total fiscal 2023 cost savings of approximately $3.7 billion relative to its initial fiscal 2023 business plan.“
The company warned that “second quarter results were constrained by continued demand weakness, particularly at FedEx Express”
The worst news, as usual, was the guidance where the company trimmed its revenue and EPS outlook, and slashed its CapEx
Earnings per diluted share of $13.00 to $14.00, below the Est of $14.14
Capital spending of $5.9 billion, down from the prior forecast of $6.3 billion.
Commenting on another lousy quarter, Michael Lenz, EVP and chief financial officer said “our teams have an unwavering focus on rapidly implementing cost savings to improve profitability. As we look to the second half of our fiscal year, we are accelerating our progress on cost actions, helping to offset continued global volume softness.”
CEO Raj Subramaniam was less than upbeat as usual, saying that “the FedEx team moved with urgency to make rapid progress on our ongoing transformation while navigating a weaker demand environment,” adding that “our earnings exceeded our expectations in the second quarter driven by the execution and acceleration of our aggressive cost reduction plans. At the same time, we continue to focus on delivering excellent service for our customers.”
Despite the revenue miss and the poor guidance, the stock initially slumped but then managed to make its way into the green, and was last trading roughly unchanged to where it opened on the day.
SWAMP STORIES
Kari Lake Election Fraud Lawsuit Goes To Trial; Says Pronouns Are “I/Won”
TUESDAY, DEC 20, 2022 – 11:25 AM
An Arizona judge ruled that two out of 10 claims brought by Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake could proceed to trial. The judge, who declined to dismiss her case, is allowing Lake to prove “intentional misconduct,” meaning that she must prove that printer malfunctions were intentional and affected the outcome of the election.
“Katie Hobbs attempt to have our case thrown out FAILED,” Lake wrote on Twitter following the decision. “She will have to take the stand & testify.”
At least 70 voting centers in Maricopa County experienced ballot printer issues on Election Day, which caused tabulation machine errors. The county has acknowledged that the 70 vote center had issues. Meanwhile, a group of roving GOP attorneys found that 72 out of 115 vote centers they visited had issues.
Meanwhile, recently disclosed internal communications between Maricopa County officials revealed a discrepancy of almost 16,000 ballots – while the governor’s race was decided by a margin of a little more than 17,000 votes.
Last week, a Maricopa County Superior Court judge approved a request by Lake to inspect random ballots from the county in order to prepare for a potential trial.
In addition to proving that the machines were intentionally broken, Lake will also have to show that a lack of chain of custody was “both intentional and did in fact result in a changed outcome,” according to Democrat lawyer Marc Elias.
On Sunday, Lake tweeted: “I identify as a proud election denying deplorable,” adding “And my pronouns are I/Won.”
Just the News has noted several other undisputed issues with the Arizona election, including;
2. As of two days after the election, there was a nearly 16,000-ballot discrepancy between the outstanding ballot counts estimated by Maricopa County and the Arizona secretary of state’s office. “Unable to currently reconcile SOS listing with our estimates from yesterday,” Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer wrote in a Nov. 10 email. The county estimated 392,000 ballots left to be counted, while the secretary of state’s website said there were 407,664 ballots left. “So there’s a 15,000 difference somewhere,” Richer concluded.
3. Maricopa County’s Election Day issues prompted Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich’s office to send a letter to the county inquiring about “first-hand witness accounts that raise concerns regarding Maricopa’s lawful compliance with Arizona election law.” The AG’s office asked the county about ballot printer issues, difficulties checking voters out so they could cast their ballots at another vote center, and the commingling of non-tabulated ballots in Door 3 of the tabulation machines with tabulated ballots. Maricopa County responded that while the election problems were “regrettable,” the number of ballots affected by printer issues were “fewer than 1% of ballots cast” and “every lawful voter was still able to cast his or her ballot.”
4. Hobbs’ office threatened the Mohave County Board of Supervisors with possible felony charges if they didn’t certify the election by Nov. 28. Two of the supervisors on the board voted to certify the election “under duress.”
After FBI Accused Of Biden Cover-Up – A New Report From Elon Musk Blows The Doors Wide Open — The Republic Brief
Musk maybe a Modern Robin Hood of truth in media by revealing truth over the coverups and false narratives benefiting the the Democrats. Darn few politicians are fit for office and clearly we should question what is being said by them and MSM. As this year fades to north a new one look for much more civil unrest as this is not limited to America. Interest rates and inflation as two visible points of angst will incite unrest.
The Supreme Court of Delaware has formally struck down state laws allowing universal mail-in voting and same-day voter registration, finding the statutes violate the state’s constitution.
The court unanimously ruled against the laws in October—preventing no excuse required mail-in voting and same-day voter registration from being used in the Nov. 8 general elections—but didn’t make public a full opinion explaining its reasons until Dec. 16.
Before that, on Sept. 14, the Court of Chancery of Delaware found that the state’s mail-in voting practices violate the Delaware Constitution, The Epoch Times reported.
Christian Adams, president of the Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF), who brought the lawsuit, hailed the decision in a statement to The Epoch Times.
Christian Adams is president of the Public Interest Legal Foundation. (Courtesy of Christian Adams)
“This was a monumental victory in the election integrity space,” said Adams, a former U.S. Department of Justice civil rights attorney.
“This is the first time a state Supreme Court has invalidated an election statute,” he said.
“This law violated the plain text of the Delaware Constitution. Today’s opinion is a victory for the rule of law in elections.”
Ken Blackwell, a PILF board member and former Republican secretary of state for Ohio, added that “election integrity should be an issue all Americans can support.”
“The fact that this might be the first time a state supreme court has struck down a state election law highlights the perilous times we are in, where partisan politicians are willing to cross lines that have never been crossed, willing to seize and keep power at all costs,” Blackwell said in the statement.
PILF describes itself as “the nation’s only public interest law firm dedicated wholly to election integrity.”
The nonprofit organization “exists to assist states and others to aid the cause of election integrity, and fight against lawlessness in American elections.”
The Democratic-controlled Delaware General Assembly hurriedly passed the voting-by-mail law this past June after failing to secure enough Republican support to amend the state constitution to enshrine the policy.
Lawmakers previously approved a separate voting-by-mail law during the pandemic in 2020, invoking emergency powers that allowed the statute to escape the usual constitutional scrutiny.
Republicans across the country, including then-President Donald Trump, were critical of mail-in voting measures enacted at the height of the pandemic and accused election officials of ignoring federal and state constitutions by allowing it.
They claim this departure from the usual election procedures allowed Democrats to allegedly cheat.
But in this case, Delaware lawmakers didn’t reference any emergency-based justification when passing the new laws, which gave state courts greater leeway to rule they were unconstitutional.
In the new decision, Justice Gary Traynor, a Republican, recounted that Gov. John Carney Jr., a Democrat, signed laws on July 22 changing the registration deadline from the fourth Saturday before the date of the election to the actual day of the election, and allowing all state voters to cast their ballots by mail whether or not they are able to appear at a polling place.
“[N]either of the newly enacted laws passes muster under the Delaware Constitution,” Traynor wrote in the new 72-page opinion.
The case is Albence v. Higgin (case number 342-2022).
The Epoch Times has reached out to State Election Commissioner Anthony Albence, who was a defendant in the legal proceeding, and to Delaware Attorney General Kathy Jennings, a Democrat who defended the law in court, for comment
end.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report December 20 2022 Issue 6911
Independent View of the News
China hints at pro-business push and support for property market in 2023 China’s top leaders have said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, further support for the property market while likely scaling back fiscal stimulus. After three years of strict “zero-COVID” restrictions, a crackdown on financial risk in the property market and targeting excessive growth of internet platform companies, leader Xi Jinping now appears to be loosening the reins… https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/12/19/business/economy-business/china-economy-outlook-2023/
China Hints at Pro-Business Policies, Smaller Fiscal Boost China’s top leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, further support for the property market while likely scaling back fiscal stimulus… At a two-day Central Economic Work Conference that wrapped up on Friday, Xi and other senior officials pledged to revive consumption and support the private sector, a marked shift from recent years… In a sign that the pro-business stance is coming right from the top, the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party, ran a front-page article on Sunday titled “The key is to boost confidence.” It quoted Xi in the article saying: “I have always supported private enterprises, and I also worked in places where the private economy is relatively developed.”… The official slogan that “housing is for living, not for speculation” was repeated — a phrase used in previous years to signal efforts to make the economy less reliant on property as a source of growth… https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/china-hints-probusiness-policies-smaller-fiscal-boost
Copper Climbs after China Flags Efforts to Boost the Economy – BBG Supply tightness could also support aluminum prices in 2023, Morgan Stanley said…
Police Guard Beijing Crematorium as Covid Deaths Questioned Police and security guards were stationed outside a Beijing crematorium reportedly designated to handle Covid fatalities, as questions over China’s virus death toll mount. Guards pushed journalists to the back of the Beijing Dongjiao Funeral Parlor’s parking lot on Monday, as a line of about a dozen black minivans entered the site on Beijing’s eastern outskirts, used to prepare and process bodies for cremation. The vans appeared to be dropping off bodies and were surrounded at one point by what seemed to be mourners or relatives… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-19/security-guard-beijing-crematorium-as-covid-deaths-questioned
We are old enough to remember when reports that China was about to reopen its economy sent stocks sharply higher. On Monday at the European close, ESHs were -24.00; the DJTA was -1.1%8%; Nasdaq was -1.3%; and USHs were – 1 24/32. The DJIA was down only 0.25%.
ESHs traded higher but sideways during Asian trading until they weakened during the final hour of Nikkei trading. ESHs surged into and after the European open. ESHs hit 3898.75 at 3:20 ET. They then traded sideways until they broke down near 6:30 ET. After a modest rally, ESHs and European stocks broke down at 8:10 ET. The rally for the NYSE open was lame, as was the rally on the NYSE open.
ESHs and stocks sank during the first 35 minutes of NYSE trading. Conditioned traders eagerly bought the dip, driving ESHs from 3862.75 at 10:05 ET to 3881.75 at 10:20 ET. Those buyers got spanked.
ESHs and stocks sank to new daily lows. At 11:41 ET, a modest rally developed; it ended by 12:15 ET. ESHs and stocks then trade sideways in a small range until ESHs broke down at 13:35 ET. A bottom appeared at 14:42 ET because the window for the pre-last hour rally appeared. The rally lasted only 5 minutes; ESHs and stocks made new minor lows. Another rally developed at 15:10 ET. ESHs surged 18 handles by the close. USHs were -1 18/32 at the NYSE close.
Positive aspects of previous session Irrational exuberance is being extracted from the equity market Last-hour rally on short-covering and getting long for the expected Turnaround Tuesday
Negative aspects of previous session Equities and bonds declined sharply Energy commodities rallied smartly
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Why did bonds and stocks sink on Monday?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Down; Last Hour:Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3814.12 Previous session High/Low: 3854.86; 3800.04
@WSJ: From @WSJopinion: For months Gary Gensler claimed to have authority over crypto and warned about self-dealing at their exchanges. Why didn’t he investigate FTX, asks @AllysiaFinley.
Where Was Biden’s SEC Sheriff on Sam Bankman-Fried? – Gary Gensler has been the ‘cop on the beat’—but he took little interest in FTX as the scandal developed.https://t.co/xZAIHTzYHM
Dr. Doug Corrigan @ScienceWDrDoug: 1) What went down: The mortality rate of a relatively benign virus was amplified by erroneous use of mechanical vents and Remdesivir, & by counting “Died with COVID” as “Died due to COVID”. False attribution of deaths was further amplified by “false positive” prone PCR tests. 2) The mortality rate was manipulated further upwards by forbidding use of IVM and hydroxychloroquine, and downplaying/deterring use of Vitamin C, Vitamin D, Zinc and Zinc Ionophores. 3) Lockdowns were easily approved due to the fear generated by artificially high mortality rates. Lack to medical care caused more deaths, and these were also falsely attributed to COVID… 5) A mass psychological campaign was launched by the Government, Big Pharma, Media, Hollywood, and our educational institutions in order to convince as many people as possible to willingly roll up their sleeve to receive this new, untested, toxic, gene-infused lipid nanoparticle. 6) Those who weren’t willing to receive the jab were bullied, coerced, placed under duress, cancelled, mocked, censored, and threatened with loss of career until they received the jab… 10) Now that the “free speech” tides are turning due to people like @elonmusk, the truth about what really happened will reach the ears of people who have been kept in the dark… https://twitter.com/ScienceWDrDoug/status/1603828417543143435
Musk is suspending Twitter accounts that promote his competitors. @elonmusk: Twitter should be easy to use, but no more relentless free advertising of competitors. No traditional publisher allows this, and neither will Twitter.
@charliekirk11: So, let me get this straight, Congress is asking the DOJ to throw President Trump in prison for events on J6 that they were active participants in with FBI informants and assets in the crowd?
Today – Traders will try to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. A large chunk of the last-hour rally on Monday was traders covering shorts and getting long for the expected Turnaround Tuesday.
A troubling aspect of Monday’s action is stocks and bonds sank. For the past several sessions, defensive asset allocators bought bonds and sold stocks. On Monday, organic actors sold stocks and bonds.
The S&P 500 Index hit a low of 3800.04 near 15:00 ET on Monday. If fact, the S&P 500 Index bottom bumped 3800 from 14:50 ET until 15:10 ET. Someone was intent on preventing the S&P 500 Index from breaching 4800 and unleashing momentum selling. 4800 is now key support.
Expected econ data: Nov Housing Starts 1.4m, Permits 1.48m
@mtaibbi: 1. THREAD: Twitter Files Supplemental 3.The questionnaire authors seem displeased with Twitter for implying, in a July 20th “DHS/ODNI/FBI Industry briefing,” that “you indicated you had not observed much recent activity from official propaganda actors on your platform.” 4. One would think that would be good news. The agencies seemed to feel otherwise… 6. The task force demanded to know how Twitter came to its unpopular conclusion. Oddly, it included a bibliography of public sources – including a Wall Street Journal article – attesting to the prevalence of foreign threats, as if to show Twitter they got it wrong. 7.Roth, receiving the questions, circulated them with other company executives, and complained that he was “frankly perplexed by the requests here, which seem more like something we’d get from a congressional committee than the Bureau.” 8. He added he was not “comfortable with the Bureau (and by extension the IC) demanding written answers.” The idea of the FBI acting as conduit for the Intelligence Community is interesting, given that many agencies are barred from domestic operations…11.This exchange is odd among other things because some of the “bibliography” materials cited by the FITF are sourced to intelligence officials, who in turn cited the public sources… https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1604613292491538432
@mkolken: If 80 FBI agents had worked with Twitter to silence Democrats it would be the biggest news story in the history of this country.
@charliekirk11: Latest Twitter Files reveal “organized effort by representatives of the intelligence community” to discredit leaks about Hunter Biden “before and after” their publication. Remember, the FBI had the Hunter laptop and was spying on Rudy Giuliani. They KNEW it was coming.
@ShellenbergerMD: 1. TWITTER FILES: PART 7 – The FBI & the Hunter Biden Laptop How the FBI & intelligence community discredited factual information about Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings both after and *before* The New York Post revealed the contents of his laptop on October 14, 2020 The story begins in December 2019 when a Delaware computer store owner named John Paul (J.P.) Mac Isaac contacts the FBI about a laptop that Hunter Biden had left with him. On Dec 9, 2019, the FBI issues a subpoena for, and takes, Hunter Biden’s laptop. By Aug 2020, Mac Isaac still had not heard back from the FBI, even though he had discovered evidence of criminal activity. And so he emails Rudy Giuliani, who was under FBI surveillance at the time. In early Oct, Giuliani gives it to @nypost Shortly before 7 pm ET on October 13, Hunter Biden’s lawyer, George Mesires, emails JP Mac Isaac. Hunter and Mesires had just learned from the New York Post that its story about the laptop would be published the next day. https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1604874800710660097 7. At 9:22 pm ET (6:22 PT), FBI Special Agent Elvis Chan sends 10 documents to Twitter’s then-Head of Site Integrity, Yoel Roth, through Teleporter, a one-way communications channel from the FBI to Twitter. 8. The next day, October 14, 2020, The New York Post runs its explosive story revealing the business dealings of President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. Every single fact in it was accurate. 9. And yet, within hours, Twitter and other social media companies censor the NY Post article, preventing it from spreading and, more importantly, undermining its credibility in the minds of many Americans. Why is that? What, exactly, happened?… 11. First, it’s important to understand that Hunter Biden earned *tens of millions* of dollars in contracts with foreign businesses, including ones linked to China’s government, for which Hunter offered no real work. Here’s an overview by investigative journalist @peterschweizer. 12. And yet, during all of 2020, the FBI and other law enforcement agencies repeatedly primed Yoel Roth to dismiss reports of Hunter Biden’s laptop as a Russian “hack and leak” operation. This is from a sworn declaration by Roth given in December 2020. https://fec.gov/files/legal/murs/7827/7827_08.pdf 13. They did the same to Facebook, according to CEO Mark Zuckerberg. “The FBI basically came to us [and] was like, ‘Hey… you should be on high alert. We thought that there was a lot of Russian propaganda in 2016 election. There’s about to be some kind of dump similar to that.'”… 15. Indeed, Twitter executives *repeatedly* reported very little Russian activity. 16. In fact, Twitter debunked false claims by journalists of foreign influence on its platform. “We haven’t seen any evidence to support that claim” by @oneunderscore @NBC News of foreign-controlled bots. “Our review thus far shows a small-scale domestic troll effort…” 18. It’s not the first time that Twitter’s Roth has pushed back against the FBI. In January 2020, Roth resisted FBI efforts to get Twitter to share data outside of the normal search warrant process. https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1604888013422485505/photo/2 19. Pressure had been growing: “We have seen a sustained (If uncoordinated) effort by the IC [intelligence community] to push us to share more info & change our API policies. They are probing & pushing everywhere they can (including by whispering to congressional staff).” https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1604888429816209409/photo/1 20. Time and again, FBI asks Twitter for evidence of foreign influence & Twitter responds that they aren’t finding anything worth reporting. “[W]e haven’t yet identified activity that we’d typically refer to you (or even flag as interesting in the foreign influence context).” 21. Despite Twitter’s pushback, the FBI repeatedly requests information from Twitter that Twitter has already made clear it will not share outside of normal legal channels. 22. Then, in July 2020, the FBI’s Elvis Chan arranges for temporary Top Secret security clearances for Twitter executives so that the FBI can share information about threats to the upcoming elections… 24. Recently, Yoel Roth told @karaswisher that he had been primed to think about the Russian hacking group APT28 before news of the Hunter Biden laptop came out. When it did, Roth said, “It set off every single one of my finely tuned APT28 hack-and-leap campaign alarm bells.”… 28. Baker wasn’t the only senior FBI exec. involved in the Trump investigation to go to Twitter. Dawn Burton, the former dep. chief of staff to FBI head James Comey, who initiated the investigation of Trump, joined Twitter in 2019 as director of strategy. 29. As of 2020, there were so many former FBI employees — “Bu alumni” — working at Twitter that they had created their own private Slack channel and a crib sheet to onboard new FBI arrivals. 30. Efforts continued to influence Twitter’s Yoel Roth. In Sept 2020, Roth participated in an Aspen Institute “tabletop exercise” on a potential “Hack-and-Dump” operation relating to Hunter Biden The goal was to shape how the media covered it — and how social media carried it. 31. The organizer was Vivian Schiller, the fmr CEO of NPR, fmr head of news at Twitter; fmr Gen. mgr of NY Times; fmr Chief Digital Officer of NBC News. Attendees included Meta/FB’s head of security policy and the top nat. sec. reporters for @nytimes @wapo and others… 35. In response to Roth, Baker repeatedly insists that the Hunter Biden materials were either faked, hacked, or both, and a violation of Twitter policy. Baker does so over email, and in a Google doc, on October 14 and 15. 36. And yet it’s inconceivable Baker believed the Hunter Biden emails were either fake or hacked. The @nypost had included a picture of the receipt signed by Hunter Biden, and an FBI subpoena showed that the agency had taken possession of the laptop in December 2019. 37. As for the FBI, it likely would have taken a few *hours* for it to confirm that the laptop had belonged to Hunter Biden. Indeed, it only took a few days for journalist @peterschweizer to prove it… 39. At 3:38 pm that same day, October 14, Baker arranges a phone conversation with Matthew J. Perry in the Office of the General Counsel of the FBI. 40. The influence operation persuaded Twitter execs that the Hunter Biden laptop did *not* come from a whistleblower. One linked to a Hill article, based on a WaPo article, from Oct 15, which falsely suggested that Giuliani’s leak of the laptop had something to do with Russia. 41. There is evidence that FBI agents have warned elected officials of foreign influence with the primary goal of leaking the information to the news media. This is a political dirty trick used to create the perception of impropriety… 42. In 2020, the FBI gave a briefing to Senator Grassley and Johnson, claiming evidence of “Russian interference” into their investigation of Hunter Biden. The briefing angered the Senators, who say it was done to discredit their investigation. 43. “The unnecessary FBI briefing provided the Democrats and liberal media the vehicle to spread their false narrative that our work advanced Russian disinformation.” https://grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/ 44. Notably, then-FBI General Counsel Jim Baker was investigated *twice,* in 2017 and 2019, for leaking information to the news media. “You’re saying he’s under criminal investigation? That’s why you’re not letting him answer?” Meadows asked. “Yes”. 45. In the end, the FBI’s influence campaign aimed at executives at news media, Twitter, & other social media companies worked: they censored & discredited the Hunter Biden laptop story. By Dec. 2020, Baker and his colleagues even sent a note of thanks to the FBI for its work. 46. The FBI’s influence campaign may have been helped by the fact that it was paying Twitter millions of dollars for its staff time. “I am happy to report we have collected $3,415,323 since October 2019!” reports an associate of Jim Baker in early 2021. 47. And the pressure from the FBI on social media platforms continues. In Aug 2022, Twitter execs prepared for a meeting with the FBI, whose goal was “to convince us to produce on more FBI EDRs” EDRs are an “emergency disclosure request,” a warrantless search. In response to the Twitter Files revelation of high-level FBI agents at Twitter, @Jim_Jordan said, “I have concerns about whether the government was running a misinformation operation on We the People.” Anyone who reads the Twitter Files, regardless of their political orientation, should share those concerns. /END https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1604878404486017026
House GOP top official @EliseStefanik: Our House Republican Majority WILL get to the bottom of the FBI’s troubling relationship with Twitter. Accountability is coming.
@JonathanTurley: The latest Twitter files show the FBI actively sought to discredit the true account of Hunter Biden’s laptop and foreign dealings. The effective blackout is having little impact on the public, which has grown skeptical mainstream media. Many in the media are heavily invested in opposing claims of censorship and government manipulation of social media. The media continues an effective blackout on the evidence of FBI coordination of censorship priorities.
@JohnBasham: @Twitter Has an Internal @SlackHQ Channel for All The Former @FBI Employees, Who Now Work At The Social Media Company, To Chat, Exchange Information, & Coordinate!…
The FBI interfered in the 2016 and 2020 Elections. If this is not a ‘high crime’, what is? What should be the penalty for the FBI’s unconstitutional acts?
DOJ snooped on House Intelligence Committee investigators during Russia probe, subpoenas show Officials used grand jury to obtain Google email, phone data for at least two top investigators for panel’s Republican chairman, Devin Nunes… Nunes’ committee was locked at the time in a bitter struggle to force the FBI and DOJ to turn over records to the committee… “The FBI and DOJ spied on a presidential campaign, and when Congress began exposing what they were doing, they spied on us to find out what we knew and how we knew it,” Nunes told Just the News. “It’s an egregious abuse of power that the next Congress must investigate so these agencies can be held accountable and reformed.”… https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/doj-spied-house-intelligence-committee-investigators
If you’re looking for a last-minute Christmas or Chanukah gift for Kennedy Assassination aficionados: Mary’s Mosaic: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder John F. Kennedy, Mary Pinchot Meyer… Winner – 2012 Hollywood Book Festival for General Non-Fiction Honorable Mention – 2012 New England Book Festival for General Non-Fiction Honorable Mention – 2012 London Book Festival for General Non-Fiction https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11839723-mary-s-mosaic
Mary’s Mosaic author Janney’s father and Mary’s husband Cord Meyer were top CIA officials. Former WaPo Editor-in-Chief and DC high solon, Ben Bradlee, was Mary Pinchot Meyer’s brother-in law.
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
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