January 31, 2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
jan 31 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $6.55 at $1929.70
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.12 to $23.74
Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1928.05
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.72
Bitcoin morning price:, 22,911 UP 229
DOLLARS
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $23,139 UP 457 dollars
Platinum price closing $1017.65 UP $2.00
Palladium price; closing 1659.05 UP $12.45
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,565.05 DOWN $1.35 CDN dollars per oz
BRITISH GOLD: 1565,17 UP 8.87 pounds per oz
EURO GOLD: 1774.70 UP 3.22 euros per oz
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,922.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/30/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 02/01/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 C GOLDMAN 448 153
104 C MIZUHO 47
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 342
132 C SG AMERICAS 255
132 H SG AMERICAS 72
167 H MAREX 3
323 H HSBC 500
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 16
365 H MAREX CAPITAL M 1
407 C STRAITS FIN LLC 5
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 200
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2432
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 30 431
661 C JP MORGAN 4981 968
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 15
709 C BARCLAYS 24
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 5
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 20
737 C ADVANTAGE 21
800 C MAREX SPEC 55
880 C CITIGROUP 920
905 C ADM 24 41
TOTAL: 6,005 6,005
MONTH TO DATE: 6,005
JPMorgan stopped 968/6005
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JAN/2023. CONTRACT: 6005 NOTICES FOR 600,500 OZ or 18.678 TONNES
total notices so far: 6005 contracts for 600,500 oz (18.678 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 27 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 135,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 135 for 135000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $6.55
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 12 CENTS
AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.5 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 520.400 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 387 CONTRACTS TO 136,767 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GOOD GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.12 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. FOR THE TWO MONTHS, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.12. AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 499 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (0 OZ. ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 0.0 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 50 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED + 0.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 0.54 MILLION OZ//// V) GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –62
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 21 days, total 10,614 contracts: OR 53.070 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (505 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 53.070 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 387 WITH OUR $0.12 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 50 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 0.54 MILLION OZ / /// 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING RISES TO 0.54 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 499 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 27 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 135,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6980 CONTRACTS TO 472,666 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: added + 14 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 6994 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $6.00 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.576 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). NEW STANDING 41.576 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $6.00 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 5511 OI CONTRACTS (17.145 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE ALL OF THE LOSS DUE TO FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION…..
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1469 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 472,666
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5511 CONTRACTS WITH 6994 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1469 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5511 CONTRACTS OR 17.14 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1469 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (6980) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 5511 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.576 TONNES ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS WITH ALL OF THAT LOSS DUE TO FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
73,461 CONTRACTS OR 7,346,100 OZ OR 228.49 TONNES 21 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3398 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:228.49 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 228.49/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.45% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES INITIAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 387 CONTRACTS OI TO 136,767 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 50 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 50 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 50 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 387 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 50 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 437 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2.185 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 12 CENT GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,
(Peter Schiff,
end
3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//CORN
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.65 PTS OR .42% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 227.40 PTS OR 1.03% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 106.29 PTS OR 0.39% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .18% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7675 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7666// /Oil DOWN TO 77.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83.66 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6980 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 472,666 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.00
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1469 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 1469 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1469 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 5511 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1469 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 6980 CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.00. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. TODAY ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION (A CRIMINAL EVENT BUT WHO IS WATCHING) .
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (41.601)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 41.576 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT fell $6.00) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 5511 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH ALL OF THE LOSS DUE TO THE CONCLUSION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION // WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 17.185 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.576 TONNES) … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.00.
WE HAD +14 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED FROM OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5511 CONTRACTS OR 551,100 OZ OR 17.14 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 192,763//poor//
final gold volumes/yesterday 172,423/// poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //JAN 31//
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 96,453. oz 3 KILOBARS BRINKS . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 192.906 oz Brinks 6 kilobars |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 6005 notice(s) 600500 OZ 18.678 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 7370 contracts 737,000 oz 22.923 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 6005 notices 600,500 18.678 TONNES* |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Brinks 96.453 oz (3kilobars)
Total withdrawals: 96.453 oz
total in tonnes: 0.00299 tonnes
Adjustments:0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 13,375 contracts having lost 15,725 contracts
Thus by definition the initial amount of gold standing in February is as follows:
13,375 notices x 100 oz per notice =1,337,500 oz
or 41.601 tonnes
March gained 57 contracts to stand at 1921.
April gained 8,540 contracts up to 388,724
We had 6005 notice(s) filed today for 600500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 4981 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 6005 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 968 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6005 x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEBRUARY 13,375 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 6005 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,336,700 OZ OR 41.601 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of January.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:
No of notices filed so far (6005 x 100 oz+ (13,375 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6005)x 100 oz} which equals 1,336,700 oz standing OR 41.601 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 41.601 TONNES. SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,859,815.082 OZ 57.84 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,234,384.892 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,020,384.584 OZ (342.78 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,214,000288 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,160,569 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 284.93 tonnes//rapidly declining
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 31/2023//INITIAL. SILVER CONTRACT FOR FEBRUARY
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1,505,324.205 oz Brinks Loomis |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 731,808.652 oz Delaware |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 27 CONTRACT(S) (135,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 81 contracts (405,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 27 contracts (135,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 1 deposits into the customer account
i) Into Delaware: 731.808.652 oz
Total deposits: 731,808.652 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 149.338 million oz/292.082 million =51.13% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Brinks 1,200,911.475 oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 304,462.700 oz
Total withdrawals; 1,505,324.203 oz
adjustments: 1l dealer to customer
i) 20,067.800 oz Brinks
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 32.399 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 292.082 MILLION OZ
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB/2023 OI:108 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 23 CONTRACT(S.).
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY IS AS FOLLOWS:
108 NOTICES X 5000 OZ PER NOTICE =540,000 OZ
March LOST 1404 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 106,027 contracts
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:27 for 135,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 64,787//fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 90,260 contracts ( very strong)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 27 x 5,000 oz = 135,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(108) and the number of notices served upon today 27 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month: 27 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB (108 – number of notices served upon today (27) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 0.540 million oz + 0 ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 0.54MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
Comex volumes:68,206// est. volume today// good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 60,477 contracts ( good)
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/
DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 917.06 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.5 MILLLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.400 MILION OZ
JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.900 MILLION OZ.
JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.900 MILLION OZ//
JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 900,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.900 MILLION OZ//
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TO TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.3 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.000 MILLION OZ
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: WHAT!! A MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/( OCCURRED (LATE LAST NIGHT)//INVENTORY RESTS AT 518.70 MILLION OZ//
JAN 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.4 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.7 MILLION OZ//
JAN 20.WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.300 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.15 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ///
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//
JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/
JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/
DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//
DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//
DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 520.4 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff: The Federal Reserve Is Nowhere Near Victory
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 07:20 AM
The mainstream is optimistic about both the economy and the Fed’s fight against inflation. In his podcast, Peter Schiff took apart the mainstream narrative, explaining that the economy is much weaker than most people realize and the Fed is nowhere near victory in the war on inflation.
We’re seeing a Santa Claus rally in stock in January, especially in the speculative momentum stocks. We’ve also seen a rally in the bond market. Peter called it a dead cat bounce.
What’s driving the move up in both stocks and bonds is the weakness in the economy. Because we continue to get more weak economic data. And not just weak economic data on the economy. There’s still hope that inflation has peaked, and the lower numbers that we’ve been seeing when it comes to month-over-month or year-over-year inflation rates — that this trend is permanent and therefore the inflation battle is over. The Fed can declare victory and start cutting rates and easing up on policy. All of this is what is creating the narrative that is driving this move up in both stocks and bonds. But I think as the year progresses, it’s going to be more obvious that inflation hasn’t peaked, that the Fed is nowhere near victorious in this fight, and the economy is actually going to be even weaker than the markets think.”
The mainstream narrative is that the economy will be weak enough to restrain the Fed, but not weak enough to put a big dent in corporate earnings.
They’re wrong. The economy is going to be much weaker than investors think, and it’s going to have an even bigger impact on earnings than investors think. But inflation is going to be much higher than anybody thinks, and that is really going to complicate the situation for both the Federal Reserve and the economy.”
We got the first look at Q4 GDP last week. The 2.9% increase was slightly better than projected.
The last two quarters of 2022 made up for the back-t0-back declines charted in the first and second quarters. That adds weight to the argument that we weren’t in a recession during the first half of the year. But Peter said he doesn’t think we had any real economic growth at all in 2022. He thinks the GDP deflator for the year was too low.
Just like with the CPI, the GDP deflator, I believe, dramatically understates what’s actually happening with consumer prices. I still think in 2022, the real increase in prices was north of 15%, which means if we accurately measured prices to determine the deflator for 2022 GDP, we would have in fact seen a massive contraction in the economy. That’s what’s actually happened. The government is covering it up by cooking the books. But in reality, the economy is shrinking.”
One of the prime reasons we saw an improvement in GDP during the last half of 2022 was an improvement in the trade deficit. The trade deficit was still huge, but not as huge as before.
One reason the trade deficit improved was the strength of the dollar. That lowered the cost of imports. But dollar strength began to unwind in the last half of Q4 and the dollar index is down about 1.5% in 2023.
The weakening dollar is now going to worsen the trade deficit.”
The release of oil from the strategic reserves last year also narrowed the trade deficit.
We’re not going to be doing that in 2023, so the trade deficits are going to be getting bigger and that is going to be subtracting from GDP.”
Peter said he thinks the US economy will get progressively weaker as the year goes on.
The Fed’s favorite inflation number – the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) came in at 4.4% for 2022. That is more than double the Fed’s 2% target. But because it is closer to 2% than it has been in the recent past, the markets view it as a positive number. But Peter said in reality, PCE confirms that the Fed is nowhere near victory when it comes to the inflation fight.
That’s because it hasn’t nearly increased interest rates enough to put out this inflation fire. But more importantly, the federal government hasn’t cut spending at all. In fact, it has increased government spending. So, the inflationary forces that underlie the economy are actually getting stronger, not getting weaker. It’s just that investors haven’t been able to figure this out yet.”
Two things need to happen in order to beat inflation. We need positive real interest rates — an interest rate above the CPI. And we also need the US government to cut spending and stop running huge budget deficits. A Fed paper admitted that it can’t tame inflation with monetary policy alone, saying, “When the fiscal authority [the federal government] is not perceived as fully responsible for covering the existing fiscal imbalances, the private sector expects that inflation will rise to ensure sustainability of national debt.”
Neither of these things will likely happen. That means the Fed can’t possibly win this war. It might be able to brag about “progress,” but it is doomed to fail.
In this podcast, Peter Schiff also talks politics, including the government going after Google’s so-called monopoly and a plan in San Francisco to incentivize African-American drug use.”
His interview:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-federal-reserve-nowhere-near-victory
end
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
JOHN RUBINO
Gold And The Shrinking Trust Horizon
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 11:41 AM
Last week I posted an article on the implosion of the official vaccine narrative.
That’s a controversial topic so not surprisingly it generated some heat on both sides. And a few readers expressed the wish that I’d stay in my lane (precious metals investing) and avoid venturing into unrelated and less well understood territory.
But believe it or not, the public health establishment losing its credibility is related to precious metals, via something called the trust horizon. It works like this: When things are good and the people in charge of big systems seem to be running them well, we’re content to trust the experts. We keep most of our money in banks, brokerage houses, and crypto wallets that exist for us only as websites. We buy produce that’s grown in a different hemisphere and shipped via boats, trains, and trucks to corporate chain grocery stores. We vaccinate ourselves and our kids according to the schedules set by the NIH or the CDC. We pop pills on our doctor’s orders without doing any research. We eat processed foods on the assumption that the FDA keeps them free of dangerous additives. And we believe what we see on cable news.
In other words, our trust horizon, defined as the distance from ourselves at which we’ll believe what we’re told, is global. We assume everything everywhere is working for our benefit and we’re thus willing to put our welfare in those distant hands.
But let some big systems fail to take proper care of us and we pull back, finding people and institutions closer to home that we can see and judge first-hand. We move our money out of distant banks and brokers and into local credit unions whose managers live down the street. We start buying groceries from farmers markets or directly from local farmers. Instead of popping whatever pill is standard for our ailments we look into “food as medicine” and other lifestyle remedies like exercise, supplements, and meditation. We homeschool our kids and join gun clubs. We buy homesteads and start raising chickens.
So where are today’s Americans on the trust horizon spectrum? Well, the military industrial complex is starting (potentially nuclear) wars all over the place. Government debt is growing exponentially. Wall Street has turned the markets into one big casino. Universities have become (very expensive) insane asylums. Congress is full of insider traders who amass fortunes while “serving the public.” And our presidents, well, insert your sarcastic phrase here.
It’s safe to say that for a growing number of disillusioned people, trust now extends to – maybe — the governor’s mansion, city hall, local farmers, their church and one or two community banks. And that’s about it.
Where does gold come in?
The biggest of the big systems that the experts have failed to manage is money. If we can’t trust the monetary authorities to maintain the value of the dollar (and in the past year we’ve learned that we emphatically cannot) then we need other forms of money to trust. And that would be gold and silver, the forms of money that disillusioned people have been running to since literally before the Roman Empire.
The advantage of precious metals lies with the concept of “counterparty risk.” Fiat currencies and pretty much everything else in today’s world require someone (the counterparty) to keep a promise for the thing in question to perform as advertised.
For your dollars to hold their value, the Fed must keep the money supply under control. For your bank account to work your bank has to stay solvent. Likewise your brokerage house. But gold and silver have no counterparty risk. No one must keep a promise for them to stay valuable. They are what they are, regardless of the behavior of the world’s experts. That’s why those experts hate precious metals and why regular people rediscover them every few generations.
Looked at this way, you can draw a direct line from the vaccine mess to gold and silver coins and bars stored in a safe place. And the line is getting thicker and stronger with every new scandal.
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Biden continues to block Pebble gold mine from being developed in salmon rich Alaska
(Bloomberg/News)
Biden to block Pebble gold mine in salmon-rich area in Alaska
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-01-30 20:52 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jennifer A. Dlouhy
Bloomberg News
Monday, January 30, 2023
The Biden administration is set to ban the dumping of mining waste near Bristol Bay, Alaska, by issuing a decree that thwarts longstanding plans to extract gold, copper, and molybdenum because of potential harm to the region’s thriving sockeye salmon industry.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s final determination, expected soon, would effectively block the mine planned by Pebble Limited Partnership as well as future mining of the same deposit in headwaters of Bristol Bay, home to the world’s largest sockeye harvest. The planned action was described by people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the decision hasn’t been announced.
Pebble, a subsidiary of publicly traded Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd., has been seeking to mine in the area for more than two decades. The pending ban dovetails with a pledge President Joe Biden made while campaigning, when he said Bristol Bay “is no place for a mine.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
As expected BIS gold swamps ends at zero
(Robert Lambourne)
Robert Lambourne: After sharp rise in November, BIS gold swaps ended the year at zero
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-01-31 14:47Section: Daily Dispatches
By Robert Lambourne
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Based on its December statement of account, published today —
— the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of the central banks and their gold broker, appears to have closed its gold swap business as of the end of the year.
It has been a rather wild ride for the bank’s gold swap business since October, as the estimate for that month showed only 7 tonnes of gold swaps outstanding, and then In November the estimated volume of swaps rose dramatically to 105 tonnes.
t may be notable that the BIS has also recently published its guidance on how to complete the reports required under the revised Basel III reporting now being implemented.
The reduction in swaps more recently has been linked to the requirements of Basel III for more capital to be held in support of these transactions.
As is usually the case with the BIS, it seems unlikely that more information about the swaps will be released. It is also possible that the worsening outlook for the finances of Western nations, especially the United States, reduces the attraction of the gold swaps to the BIS and the central bank or banks for which the BIS seemingly has been acting.
As is clear from Table B below, the level of BIS swaps had been significantly higher in the first half of the year, and the October and December totals were easily the lowest in more than four years.
Table A below highlights the level of gold swaps reported in the annual reports of the BIS all the way back to 2010, when the bank’s use of gold swaps appears to have begun. At only one year-end since then, in March 2016, has the swap level been zero.
The BIS’ half-year report to September 30, 2022, has also just been published, and while it offers no direct comment on the use of gold swaps, its disclosures include confirmation that the BIS still holds 102 tonnes of its own gold and that very little of its activities in derivatives are with central banks.
An assumption that the gold held by the BIS remains at 102 tonnes has been used to make the estimate of the gold swap level for December. The low level of derivatives using central banks as counterparties disclosed in the last interim report is taken as a reason to assume that the swaps are almost certainly done with gold bullion banks rather than central banks. Historically, the first swaps described below were done with bullion banks.
While not necessarily related to the reduction in swaps sourced by the BIS, the recent strength of the gold price together with the conundrum facing the U.S. Federal Reserve about raising dollar interest rates must reduce the attraction of having to return swapped gold to bullion banks. Despite the rhetoric about pushing for higher interest rates, the Federal Reserve needs to avoid an erosion of confidence in the U.S. Treasuries market when the federal government’s rising debt is becoming more controversial.
Also, recent increases in interest rates are already hitting federal government finances. The recently published December Monthly Treasury Report focuses in its Highlights section on the federal government’s interest charge of $107 billion in the month. This is a higher interest charge than would arise on a full accruals basis, but is still rising sharply:
This appears to be the first month when the reported interest bill has exceeded $100 billion. An annual interest cost of maybe $800 billion in the current fiscal year seems possible even without further interest rate increases. In these circumstances the room for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates seems really limited and hence it seems unwise for the BIS, probably acting as an agent for the Fed, to face future deliveries of gold via the use of swaps, since the parlous state of U.S. government finances is probably a significant boost for gold.
… Historical context
The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009-10 annual report.
The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they were carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve central banks. It also seems highly likely that the BIS’ remaining swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.
The swap transactions potentially created a mismatch at the BIS, which may have ended up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.
The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the bank’s establishment 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:
http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1931_en.pdf
A June 2008 presentation made by the BIS to potential central bank members at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, noted that the bank’s services to its members include secret interventions in the gold and foreign exchange markets:
https://www.gata.org/node/11012
The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear ever to have been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years, although the recent declines suggest this is changing.
As of March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in the name of the BIS in gold sight accounts at major central banks, of which 346 tonnes or 20% were sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.
If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosures made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. This irony may not be lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the BIS’ gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.
A review of Table B below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the recent positions estimated from the BIS monthly statements have regularly been large, especially in early 2022, and the volume of trading has been significant.
No explanation for this continuing use of swaps has been published by the BIS. Indeed, no comment on the bank’s use of gold swaps has been offered since 2010.
This gold is supplied by bullion banks via the swaps to the BIS. The gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts (unallocated gold accounts) at major central banks such as the Federal Reserve.
The reasons for this activity have never been fully explained by the BIS and various conjectures have been made as to why the BIS has facilitated it. One conjecture is that the swaps are a mechanism for the return of gold secretly supplied by central banks to cover shortfalls in the gold markets. The use of the BIS to facilitate this trade suggests of a desire to conceal the rationale for the transactions.
As can be seen in Table A below, the BIS has used gold swaps extensively since its financial year 2009-10. No use of swaps is reported in the bank’s annual reports for at least 10 years prior to the year ended March 2010.
The February 2021 estimate of the bank’s gold swaps (552 tonnes) was higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010. The swaps reported at March 2021 were at the highest year-end level reported, as is clear from Table A.
—–
Table A — Swaps reported in BIS annual reports
March 2010: 346 tonnes.
March 2011: 409 tonnes.
March 2012: 355 tonnes.
March 2013: 404 tonnes.
March 2014: 236 tonnes.
March 2015: 47 tonnes.
March 2016: 0 tonnes.
March 2017: 438 tonnes.
March 2018: 361 tonnes.
March 2019: 175 tonnes
March 2020: 326 tonnes
March 2021: 490 tonnes
March 2022: 358 tonnes
—–
The table below reports the estimated swap levels since August 2018. It can be seen that the BIS is actively involved in trading gold swaps and other gold derivatives with changes from month to month reported in excess of 100 tonnes in this period.
—–
Table B – Swaps estimated by GATA from BIS monthly statements of account
Month ….. Swaps
& year … in tonnes
Dec-22 … /0
Nov-22 … /105
Dec-22 … /0
Nov-22 … /105
Oct-22 ….. /7
Sep-22 …../57
Aug -22 ….. /75
Jul-22 ….. /56
Jun-22 ….. /202
May-22 ….. /270
Apr-22 ….. /315
Mar-22 …. /358
Feb-22 …. /472
Jan-22 ….. /501
Dec-21…. /414
Nov-21…. /451
Oct-21…. /414
Sep-21 …. /438
Aug-21 …. /464
Jul-21 …. /502
Jun-21 …./471
May-21 …./517
Apr-21 …. /472
Mar-21…. /490±
Feb-21 …../552
Jan-21 …. /523
Dec-20 …. /545
Nov-20 …. /520
Oct-20 …. /519
Sep-20…../ 520
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 …. / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326*
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 ….. / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370
± The estimate originally reported by GATA was 487 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 490 tonnes, It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 326 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.
—–
As noted already, the BIS in recent times has refused to explain its activities in the gold market, nor for whom the bank is acting:
https://www.gata.org/node/17793
Despite this reticence the BIS has almost certainly acted on behalf of central banks in taking out these swaps, as they are the BIS’ owners and control its Board of Directors.
This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of their interventions.
As mentioned above, it is possible that the swaps provide a mechanism for bullion banks to return gold originally lent to them by central banks to cover bullion bank shortfalls of gold. Some commentators have suggested that a portion of the gold held by exchange-traded funds and managed by bullion banks is sourced directly from central banks.
—–
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.
* * *
end
Craig Hemke discusses gold/silver for the week ahead
(Craig Hemke)
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The busy week ahead for gold
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-01-31 13:44 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Craig Hemke
Sprott Money, Toronto
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
While there will be all sorts of economic and geopolitical headlines in the days ahead, two events that will drive precious metals stand out.
The first will be the conclusion of the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. The second will be the release of the January U.S. jobs report on Friday.
If Comex gold and silver can successfully navigate both, the possibility of a February rally will grow
First of all, it’s not just those two events that will impact precious metal prices.
There will also be the updated manufacturing and service sector purchasing managers index as well as the latest updates on productivity and unit labor costs.
However, the most important scheduled events are the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the U.S. jobs data on Friday. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/The-Busy-Week-Ahead-January-31-2023
end
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
A MUST VIEW
FROM THE IMF:
Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?
(SPECIAL THANKS TO KEVIN TO OBTAINING THIS FOR US:)
| Kevin Wallien | 9:24 AM (3 minutes ago) |  | |
| to me | |||
Fyi
Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?
end
No question about it: huge central bank buying of gold drove demand to 10 year highs
(London’s Financial Times)
(GATA) ‘Colossal’ central bank buying drives gold demand to decade high
By Harry Dempsey
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Demand for gold surged to its highest in more than a decade in 2022, fueled by “colossal” central bank purchases that underscored the safe haven asset’s appeal during times of geopolitical upheaval.
Annual gold demand increased 18% last year to 4,741 tonnes, the largest amount since 2011, driven by a 55-year high in central bank purchases, according to the World Gold Council, an industry-backed group.
Central banks hoovered up gold at a historic rate in the second half of the year, a move many analysts attribute to a desire to diversify reserves away from the dollar after the U.S. froze Russia’s reserves denominated in the currency as part of its sanctions against Moscow.
Retail investors also piled into the yellow metal in a bid to protect themselves from high inflation.
Central bank purchases of gold hit 417 tonnes in the final three months of the year, roughly 12 times higher than the same quarter a year ago. It took the annual total to more than double of the previous year at 1,136 tonnes. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.ft.com/content/ef6ed550-422a-4540-a8af- 41ff2ac30e67
end
from BullionVault:
Gold Price Rebounds from $1900 as ‘Unreported’ Central-Bank Buying Boosts Global Demand
Tuesday, 1/31/2023 14:45
The GOLD PRICE fell and then rebounded from 2-week lows against a rising Dollar in London trade Tuesday, heading into tomorrow’s much-anticipated US Federal Reserve decision on interest rates just shy of $1920 per ounce after the world’s largest gold ETF saw a small outflow overnight.
With the price of gold dipping within $1 of $1900 per ounce before rebounding, new data from the World Gold Council meantime made headlines by reporting the heaviest global gold demand since 2011 for last year as a whole.
“Colossal central bank purchases, aided by vigorous retail investor buying and slower ETF outflows, lifted annual demand to an 11-year high,” says the mining-industry- backed WGC, now marking 30 years of its regular and widely- respected Gold Demand Trends reports.
Despite that rise in total demand however, gold prices were dead flat in Dollar terms in 2022, rising just 0.08% on the previous year’s annual average for gold’s weakest price increase since the bottom of the bear market ending in 2015 thanks to large private investment flows to physical bullion turning negative, gold-backed ETF trust funds shrinking, and speculators cutting their bullish betting on futures and options contracts.
Chart of global gold demand in tonnes. Source: World Gold Council
Making a substantial estimate for unreported official- sector gold demand to put 2022 as the strongest such year since before the Bretton Woods gold-Dollar monetary system collapsed 5 decades ago, “Central bank buying [in 2023] is unlikely to match 2022 levels,” the WGC said today, launching its new report.
“Lower total [foreign-exchange] reserves may constrain the capacity to add to existing allocations. But lagged reporting by some central banks means that we need to apply a high degree of uncertainty to our expectations, predominantly to the upside.”
“There is chatter in the markets about the lack of reported increases in China’s central bank holdings,” says precious metals specialist Rhona O’Connell at brokerage StoneX.
Comparing Swiss export data for bullion shipped to Hong Kong against the city’s domestic consumer demand plus China’s wider jewelry-plus-retail-investment as well as the country’s world No.1 gold-mine output, “there is a shortfall of roughly 350 tonnes to make up,” O’Connell adds, saying that “these numbers are likely to increase” the view that the People’s Bank is under-reporting its gold reserves.
“While it is possible that some of [the over-supplied] metal may have come back out of the country…the extra would certainly account for the reported increase in [China’s] central bank reserves of more than 60 tonnes in the latter part of the year.”
Action in gold-backed ETFs was mixed on Monday, with the giant SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD) shrinking by 0.2% to its smallest in 5 sessions, while the smaller iShares gold trust (NYSEArca: IAU) was unchanged at its largest since mid- November, not seeing any net outflows of investment cash since Christmas Eve.
On the Chinese wholesale market’s 2nd day back from the Lunar New Year spring festival holidays, gold prices in Shanghai edged lower overnight from yesterday’s 28-month Yuan gold highs, trimming the city’s benchmark price ¥3 per gram to ¥419.
Betting on tomorrow’s US Fed decision meantime put a 99.8% certainty on a rise of 0.25 points – the smallest since the US central bank began ‘lift off’ from zero rates this time last year – after last week’s PCE data said inflation in the world’s largest economy continues to slip from 2022’s 4-decade highs.
Gold priced in the Euro also sank and rebounded, regaining its €15 down-spike to trade back at €1770 per ounce, while the UK gold price in Pounds per ounce rose back above £1560 – a new record high when first reached on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 11 months ago – following a downgrade to the UK’s economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund.
With the IMF now saying UK GDP will shrink in 2023 while the rest of the developed world grows, “remember the UK outlook is just a couple of researchers in [Washington]” who work from external forecasts from the Bank of England and UK Treasury, says former Bank of England economist Tony Yates. “There is no gigantic seeing intelligence with independent insight.”
In contrast to the gold price – and enjoying no central- bank demand, official or unreported according to expert analysts – silver prices today dipped through $23 per ounce for the 2nd time in 6 weeks before rallying 50 cents in barely 2 hours.
end
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
END
.
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7565
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7666
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.65 PTS OR .42%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 227.40 PTS OR 1.03%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 106.29 PTS OR 0.39%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED EXCEPT ITALY
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 102.29 Euro FALLS TO 1.0827 DOWN 23 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.488!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 130.43/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.289%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.268%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.325…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.287//
3j Gold at $1914.20//silver at: 23.35 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 15/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 70.55//
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 130.42/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54% FALLS TO .488% ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9273– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0040 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.518% DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.639 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,81…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.3554% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
“Markets Are Tense”: Futures Slide As Central Bank Jitters Rise
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 08:05 AM
US equity futures showed no sign of rebounding on Tuesday from the Nasdaq’s worst single-day drubbing in over a month, with investors growing nervous ahead of this week’s barrage of central bank meetings which include the BOE and ECB Thursday and start tomorrow, when the Fed is expected to hike rates by 25bps; a barrage of earnings reports from some of the world’s biggest companies is also keeping investors busy.
Futures for the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 indexes slipped 0.6% and 0.3%, recovering from even bigger losses earlier in the session as doubts continue to grow about the sustainability of a four-month old rally, which has accelerated further since the start of the year. The Nasdaq benchmark tumbled more than 2% on Monday, its largest decline since Dec. 22 . Despite the pre-Fed jitters, however, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are poised for their best start to a year since 2019 as optimism over slowing inflation and resilient economic growth fueled appetite for risk. However, the start of the earnings season with corporate warnings and reiteration of the Fed’s resolve to raise rates have put a damper on the recovery. Treasury yields dipped, the dollar edged higher and oil extended its recent losses.
In premarket trading, chipmaker stocks slumped with NXP Semiconductors NV dropping more than 4% after a disappointing first-quarter forecast. Exxon Mobil surpassed profit expectations for the ninth time in 10 quarters, but shares are down premarket as the company signaled investors won’t see any additional rewards. McDonald’s also fell as much as 1.8% after its operating margin for the fourth quarter misses the consensus estimate. Its 2023 forecast for the measure also trailed. Moderna and BioNTech are also dropping in US premarket trading after Pfizer’s 2023 outlook included softer revenue estimates for its Covid vaccine and pill than analysts expected (MRNA dips 2.4% and BNTX, which is partner on PFE’s shot, falls 2%). On the plus side, General Motors jumped more than 5% after posting forecasts that beat analysts’ estimates; its results lifted shares of automakers Ford and Stellantis. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Shares in NXP Semiconductors drop 4% in US premarket trading after the chipmaker gave a forecast for first-quarter revenue that missed estimates. The company saw weak demand in its mobile, industrial and smart home businesses, while its autos segment remained resilient.
- Shares of semiconductor companies are falling in US premarket trading on Tuesday, after Samsung Electronics said it expects the smartphone market to contract in 2023 and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI US) reported a sales decline in its mobile business.
- Micron leads chip stocks lower in US premarket trading after Samsung Electronics said it expects the smartphone market to contract in 2023 and NXP Semiconductors reported a sales decline in its mobile business.
- Comstock Resources (CRK US) shares rise as much as 6% in US premarket trading, ahead of the oil and gas company’s inclusion in the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
- Health insurance stocks and managed-care providers could come under pressure in the short term, analysts said, after a Medicare audit rule was finalized under which the agency will seek around $4.7 billion over 10 years in clawback payments. Shares in insurers including Humana (HUM US) and UnitedHealth (UNH US) declined in US postmarket trading on Monday.
- FibroGen Inc. (FGEN US) gained in postmarket trading Monday after William Blair raised the recommendation to outperform from market perform, joining at least two other analysts who have lifted their ratings this month.
- Integer Holdings Corp. (ITGR US) declined postmarket Monday after the medical device outsource manufacturer announced the launch of a $375m convertible senior notes offering.
- Harmonic (HLIT US) dropped in postmarket trading Monday after forecasting adjusted earnings per share for 2023 that missed the average analyst estimate.
“Markets are tense,” said Raphael Thuin, head of Capital Markets Strategies at Tikehau Capital. “They haven’t made up their minds about the ongoing earnings season,” he said, noting visibility also remains low on the outlook for inflation and how policy makers intend to keep price growth in check. He warned that a surprisingly hawkish tone from the Fed could trigger a backlash across markets. The US central bank will conclude its meeting on Wednesday and is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.
Signs of earnings pressure are complicating the picture for investors hopeful that the Fed will ease off on its aggressive rate-hike cycle: According to data compiled by Bloomberg, earnings per share estimates for the S&P 500 have fallen since peaking in June 2022, while revenue projections have flatlined. Margins are coming under pressure as slowing inflation erodes pricing power.
“The prospect of a stabilization of interest rates at 5% after March is shifting the focus from the rate side to the growth side,” said Willem Sels, chief investment officer at HSBC Private Bank. “Mixed earnings will probably continue to lead to some volatility in coming weeks, so we are neutral on developed-market equities for now.”
European stocks extended a decline after data suggested the euro area will avoid a recession after unexpectedly expanding at the end of 2022, prompting traders to ramp up bets on monetary tightening by the ECB. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.7% with miners, financial services and energy the worst performing sectors. Gross domestic product edged up by 0.1% in the final quarter, Eurostat said Tuesday, defying economist estimates for a contraction of 0.1%. While German and Italian output shrank, France and Spain recorded expansion. There was also stronger-than-anticipated data on Monday from Ireland. Among individual stock movers in Europe on Tuesday, Swiss lender UBS Group AG dropped more than 3% after reporting a slump in revenue at its key wealth management business. Unicredit SpA surged after the Italian lender reported better-than-expected profit. Here are some of the biggest European movers on Tuesday:
- UniCredit shares rise as much as 9.6% after the Italian lender beat expectations across the board, including delivering what KBW says is a “monster” capital return
- Swedbank jumps as much as 5% after the lender’s 4Q net interest income (NII) fueled a strong profit beat. Analysts say they expect positive revisions to earnings estimates for 2023-2024
- Diageo gains as much as 2.1% after Investec upgraded the drinks giant to buy from hold, saying the shares are “a rare bargain” after their post-earnings decline
- SEB rises as much as 9.2%, their biggest jump since October 2021, after the French household-appliances maker reported 4Q sales that beat the average analyst estimate.
- UBS shares fall as much as 4.1% in early trading with analysts saying the Swiss banking and wealth management group’s results look mixed when delving into the details
- Tele2 shares fall as much as 5% after the telecom operator forecast low-single-digit growth in Ebitda after-leases for 2023, which analysts say was “soft” compared to consensus
- Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 7.2% after the defense company said it plans to offer of two series of unsubordinated, unsecured convertible bonds with an aggregate principal amount of €1 billion
- Wartsila shares fall as much as 5.8%. The power plant services company posted a “heavy” 50% miss on its fourth-quarter EPS, driven by legacy pricing and one-time items, RBC says
- AMS-Osram shares fall as much as 4.9% after the Swiss semiconductor company announced a CEO change, a move Vontobel described as “unexpected” and adding uncertainty
- Darktrace drops as much as 7.6% to a record low after Quintessential Capital Management issued a 70-page report explaining why it’s short the shares of the cybersecurity firm
- Trelleborg shares drop as much as 4.6%, retreating from yesterday’s record close, as Citi writes in note that it appears too early for a re-rating in the industrial firm’s stock
Asian stocks fell for a second day as mainland Chinese shares pulled back after Monday’s advance, with traders awaiting key decisions from major central banks this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.2%, dragged lower by technology shares after Samsung Electronics posted weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Equity markets in Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan retreated. China’s CSI 300 Index fell even after the latest economic data showed manufacturing and services expanded for the first time in four months as the nation exited from Covid Zero.
The benchmark gauge shied away from a bull market after a recent rally fueled by the return of foreign investors took a breather. “Stocks generally have had a very good run recently despite concerns of a US recession and Fed hawkishness,” said Chetan Seth, an Asia Pacific equity strategist at Nomura. “So there is naturally a huge focus on US payrolls data this Friday and what Chair Powell has to say this coming Thursday early morning in Asia.” Interest-rate decisions are scheduled this week for the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by a quarter percentage point, with investors on the lookout for any changes in the future tightening path. The MSCI’s Asian benchmark was poised for a monthly gain of around 8%, its best January performance since 1994. The gauge has rallied 23% since Oct. 31 on China’s rebound, beating the S&P 500 by 19 percentage points
Japanese equities erased earlier gains, ending the day lower ahead of major central-bank decisions this week. The Topix Index fell 0.4% to 1,975.27 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei declined 0.4% to 27,327.11. Daiichi Sankyo Co. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 4.9%. Out of 2,165 stocks in the index, after its 3Q results. 1,382 rose and 696 fell, while 87 were unchanged. “This week we have the US jobs report and the FOMC meeting,” said Hideyuki Suzuki, general manager at SBI Securities. “We’ll have to monitor the Fed meeting.” Interest-rate decisions are scheduled this week for the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
Australian stocks also dipped, with the S&P/ASX 200 index edging 0.1% lower to close at 7,476.70, dragged by losses in mining and real estate shares. Australian retail sales declined for the first time in 2022 in December, suggesting consumers are beginning to rein in spending in response to rapid inflation and rising interest rates. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.6% to 11,967.72.
Indian stocks closed little changed amid a volatile session ahead of the federal budget’s presentation on Wednesday. HDFC Bank and software makers were key drags on benchmark index. Adani Group stocks were mostly higher as the conglomerate’s flagship firm successfully concluded its $2.5 billion follow-on share sale, helped by demand from institutional investors. Seven out of 10 companies controlled by Adani Group advanced while the decliners were led by Adani Total Gas, which plunged 10%. The S&P BSE Sensex rose slightly less than 0.1 percent to 59,549.90 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index moved by a similar amount. Fifteen of the 20 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by services-sector companies, while energy firms were the worst performers. Stocks in Asia and Europe were mostly lower as investors await key decisions from major central banks this week. Cigarette and FMCG-products maker ITC contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 2.2%. Half the 30 shares in the Sensex index rose and half fell.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% to its highest level since Jan. 24, as broader market sentiment turned cautious with the Federal Reserve set to kick off its two-day meeting, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England both issue policy decisions on Thursday. The Norwegian krone and Australian dollar are the weakest among the G-10’s while the Japanese yen outperforms. “The price action suggests market participants are nervous over a hawkish policy surprise from central banks including the Fed this week, and/or a lot of good news has already been priced into markets now in anticipation of China’s economy reopening more fully,” MUFG analysts wrote in a note
- The euro falls as much as 0.5% versus the dollar before clawing back some losses; the Euro Stoxx 50 index slips 0.7%, taking a hit on the back of mixed corporate earnings as investors focus on growing pressures on banks, tech, other sectors
- The pound slipped 0.3% vs the dollar, weighed down by month-end selling. Ahead of Thursday’s BOE rate decision, a survey of economists suggests a half-point hike is most likely with a three-way vote split
- The Norwegian krone stumbles to its weakest against the euro in more than two years, after the country’s central bank said it would raise its FX purchases next month. Its wealth fund reported its biggest loss since the 2008 global financial crisis.
- The yen edged up, while the yield on 10-year JGBs rises toward the Bank of Japan’s 0.5% policy ceiling as solid demand for central bank loans fails to quell speculation that another policy change is in store
In rates, treasuries edge up, pushing the 10-year yield 2bps lower to 3.51%, with gilts underperforming by ~1bp in the sector, helping unwind some Treasury gains seen in Asia session. Gilts lag, and markets trade with a broad risk-off tone with S&P 500 futures lower, adding to Monday’s slide. The two-year yield slips 0.2bps to 4.23%, keeping the inverted two-year/10-year yield curve little changed. Bunds gain, led by a 2.5 basis point slide in the five- year yield to 2.33%. German 10-year yields are lower by 2bps while the UK equivalent is unchanged. US economic slate includes employment cost index and consumer confidence.
In commodities, crude futures decline, with WTI down 1.7% to trade near $76.60. Spot gold falls roughly $18 to trade near $1,905
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the first look at Q4 GDP for the Euro Area. Alongside that, we’ll get the French CPI release for January, as well as German unemployment for January and UK mortgage approvals for December. In the US, there’s then the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for January, the ECI, the MNI Chicago PMI for January, and the FHFA house price index for November. Finally, earnings releases include ExxonMobil, Pfizer, McDonald’s, UPS, and Caterpillar.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,019.75
- MXAP down 1.1% to 167.63
- MXAPJ down 1.4% to 548.11
- Nikkei down 0.4% to 27,327.11
- Topix down 0.4% to 1,975.27
- Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 21,842.33
- Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,255.67
- Sensex down 0.1% to 59,437.41
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,476.66
- Kospi down 1.0% to 2,425.08
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 451.36
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.29%
- Euro down 0.3% to $1.0822
- Brent Futures down 1.1% to $83.95/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.9% to $1,905.51
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.20% to 102.49
Top Overnight News
- China’s NBS PMIs rebound in January, w/manufacturing at 50.1 (up from 47 in Dec and inline w/the St’s 50.1 forecast) and non-manufacturing 54.4 (up from 41.6 in Dec and ahead of the St’s 52 forecast). RTRSThe Biden administration has stopped providing US companies with licences to export to Huawei as it moves towards imposing a total ban on the sale of American technology to the Chinese telecom equipment giant. FT
- US President Biden is to end COVID-19 emergency declarations on May 11th, according to the White House.
- US President Biden announces funding for major transportation projects funded by the bipartisan infrastructure law; USD 1.2bln across nine projects.
- The Biden administration plans to release the president’s budget on March 9th, according to Punchbowl sources.
- The euro area is on course to avoid a recession after euro zone Q4 GDP edged up by 0.1% in the final quarter, despite double- digit inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While German and Italian output shrank, France and Spain recorded expansion
- France’s CPI for Jan rose vs. Dec, but was relatively inline w/ St expectations (+7% vs. +6.7% in Dec). Germany’s CPI for Jan was due out this morning but will be delayed a few days because of technical issues. RTRS
- France has signalled openness to sending fighter jets to Ukraine as western countries weigh the next steps in military assistance to help Kyiv resist Russian attacks. FT
- IMF issues a bullish update on the global economy, increasing its 2023 GDP growth forecast from +2.7% to +2.9%. IMF
- German retail sales unexpectedly fell in December as a Christmas shopping period weighed down by high inflation and the energy crisis revived fears of a more marked slowdown in Europe’s largest economy. Retail sales decreased by 5.3% in December compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.2% rise in price-adjusted terms. RTRS
- Biden will herald a $300MM grant for the Gateway Program, which aims to build a new rail tunnel beneath the Hudson River, during an appearance in NYC on Tuesday. Politico
- Gautam Adani did it. The $2.5 billion equity sale by his flagship company was fully subscribed, a reprieve after Hindenburg’s attack on his empire. Today’s the final day of bidding in the follow-on offering by Adani Enterprises, which climbed 2.8%. Adani Total plunged by the 10% daily limit to lead losses in most of the group’s stocks. BBG
- Asian stocks fell for a second day as mainland Chinese shares pulled back after Monday’s advance, with traders awaiting key decisions from major central banks this week
- The International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth outlook for the first time in a year, with resilient US spending and China’s reopening buttressing demand against a litany of risks
- The US Treasury is set to keep the size of its quarterly sale of longer-term securities unchanged in an announcement this week, with bond dealers seeing little scope for changes to issuance strategy amid a partisan battle over expanding the government’s borrowing authority
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks declined following the weak lead from global counterparts added to the cautiousness heading into the upcoming risk events, while a rebound in Chinese PMI data failed to inspire a rally as the region also digested a slew of earnings updates. ASX 200 was subdued as the outperformance in defensives was offset by losses in tech and with Retail Sales at a larger-than-expected contraction. Nikkei 225 softened amid a deluge of earnings releases which impacted several of the largest movers in the index, although losses were contained by better-than-expected data releases. KOSPI suffered amid losses in its largest constituent Samsung Electronics which posted its lowest quarterly operating profit in 8 years and flagged macroeconomic uncertainties will persist this year. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured despite the strong Chinese PMI data which topped forecasts and returned to expansion territory, while attention was also on preliminary earnings and reports that US President Biden’s team is weighing fully cutting off Huawei from US suppliers.
Top Asian News
- US Commerce Department notified companies it would no longer grant them licences to export to Huawei as the White House mulls fully cutting off Huawei from US suppliers, according to FT and Bloomberg.
- US is pushing for military sites in the Philippines to counter China, according to WSJ.
- Indian Gov’t Economic Survey: 2023/24 GDP Growth 6.0-6.8%, baseline GDP growth pegged at 11% nominal and 6.5% in real terms.
- Chinese Premier Li says will keep economic operations within a reasonable range, according to state media; maintaining financial stability and fending off risks still long-term and arduous tasks, will keep the Yuan exchange rate basically stable.
European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, as the upside after France’s CPI fizzled out and reverted back to APAC performance. Sectors are mostly in the red with Banking names outperforming post-earnings while Basic Resources lag given the risk tone and USD. Stateside, futures are similarly pressured and have been in-fitting with European peers throughout the session ahead of key Employment Cost data, ES -0.5%.
Top European News
- IMF raised its 2023 global GDP growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.7% citing resilience in advanced economies and China reopening but cut its 2024 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.2% due to steeper monetary policy tightening. Click here for more detail.
- French and German Economy Ministers are to head to the US on February 6th-7th, to attempt to “iron out” the disagreement sparked by the US’ Inflation Reduction Act, via Politico citing sources.
- UK PM Sunak has been warned by two former negotiators, including Lord Frost not to trade off the power to overrule the EU in Northern Ireland in order to make a deal with Brussels, according to The Telegraph.
- Riksbank Governor Thedeen says high inflation and increasing interest rates are testing the resilience of the Swedish financial system.
- UK Dec. Mortgage Approvals Fall to 31-Month Low of 35.6k
- UK to Be Only G-7 Economy in Recession This Year, IMF Says
- Norway’s Wealth Fund Loses 14% as Inflation, War Hit Markets
- Tesco in Talks to Buy Paperchase Brand, Other IP Assets: Sky
- UniCredit CEO Says Current Valuations Don’t Allow M&A
FX
- The USD is on the front-foot as the DXY benefits from the downturn in risk sentiment and as such continues to extend above 102.00 to a 102.61 peak, though the 102.50 mark is proving sticky ahead of data.
- EUR/USD tested 1.08 to the downside following below/in-line with consensus French inflation while the subsequent Flash/Prelim. GDP print for Q4, which was unexpectedly positive, failed to spur any sustained EUR upside.
- Antipodeans are the current laggards with soft Australian retail sales hampering the AUD and more-than-offsetting any positivity from China’s PMIs; AUD/USD down to 0.6999 and NZD/USD to 0.6421 troughs vs 0.7065 and 0.6479 peaks.
- JPY is little changed overall with comparably softer USD yields and the risk tone offsetting the USD’s dominance, USD/JPY in a narrow 130.05-130.53 range.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7604 vs exp. 6.7607 (prev. 6.7626)
Fixed Income
- EGBs are currently mixed/flat, despite pronounced action throughout the session in the wake of French and EZ data points, Bunds are currently towards the lower-end of 136.54-137.30 parameters.
- The complex experienced an initial bid on the in-line/slightly cooler than consensus French inflation metrics before slipping following unexpectedly positive EZ Q4 QQ GDP, as the more resilient economy provides the ECB with the necessary cover to continue tightening.
- Amidst this, Gilts and USTs have been directionally in-fitting but with magnitudes more contained ahead of Thursday’s BoE and today’s key US data ahead of the FOMC; currently, US yields are a touch softer with action slightly more pronounced at the short-end of the curve.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks have been moving lower throughout the session as sentiment sours somewhat as we move closer to the week’s key risk events.
- Thus far, WTI March has dipped under USD 77/bbl (from a USD 78.14/bbl high) while its Brent April counterpart fell under USD 83.50/bbl (from a USD 84.80/bbl high).
- Russia banned domestic oil exporters from adhering to Western price caps and called on the energy ministry to devise an approach for monitoring prices of Russian oil exports by March 1st.
- Spot gold has tested USD 1900/oz to the downside, though the figure at 21-DMA at USD 1901/oz is seemingly providing support with the yellow metal yet to move below the figure; LME Copper is downbeat given the above risk tone and firmer USD.
Geopolitics
- Russia and Belarus began joint military staff training, according to the Belarusian Defence Ministry.
- US President Biden said the US will not send Ukraine F-16 jets, according to CBS News.
- S. Korean and US Defence Chiefs pledge to expand the level and scale of joint military drills.
- NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said to Japan that the war in Ukraine demonstrates that their security is closely interconnected and he appreciates the support Japan provides including cargo capabilities, while he added that they will continue to strengthen the partnership between Japan and NATO, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: 4Q Employment Cost Index, est. 1.1%, prior 1.2%
- 09:00: Nov. S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 6.70%, prior 8.64%
- S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. -0.65%, prior -0.52%
- S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, prior 9.24%
- 09:00: Nov. FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. -0.5%, prior 0%
- 09:45: Jan. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.0, prior 44.9, revised 45.1
- 10:00: Jan. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 109.0, prior 108.3
- Present Situation, prior 147.2
- Expectations, prior 82.4
- 10:30: Jan. Dallas Fed Services Activity
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After putting in a very strong start to 2023, markets lost a fair bit of ground yesterday as investors grew a little concerned about the sustainability of the current rally. There were several factors driving that, but an important one was the stronger-than-expected Spanish inflation print for January, which added to fears that inflation could prove more persistent than feared, meaning that central banks would need to keep up their hawkish stance for some time yet. That led equities and bonds to sell off over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-1.30%) putting in its worst start to a week so far this year, and second worst day of the year, just as 10yr Treasury yields rose +3.3bps as well. Clearly there’s still plenty to navigate over the course of the week, but with US financial conditions having eased to their most accommodative in months, there’s an awareness that the Fed could seek to reassert their hawkish credentials through tomorrow’s decision.
In terms of the specific moves, risk assets struggled for the most part, with big tech leading the declines as fears about higher rates ramped up again. That saw the NASDAQ shed -1.96% on the day (worst day since December 22nd), whilst the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks saw an even larger decline of -3.41% (also the worst day since December 22nd). While megacap tech stocks led the declines, 80% of S&P 500 constituents lost ground yesterday with the worst single sector actually being energy (-2.29%) on lower oil prices, as Brent crude was down -2.03%. In fact, the only major sector to just finish positive on the day was the defensive consumer staples (+0.07%) group. On this side of the continent, the STOXX 600 (-0.17%) saw more modest declines and finished near the highs of the day before the last part of the US sell-off
As mentioned at the top, the day got off to a rough start after the Spanish inflation print for January came in significantly higher than expected. The release saw CPI come in at 5.8% on the EU-harmonised measure, which was an increase from the previous month’s 5.5% and a full point above the expected decline to 4.8%. In addition, core inflation (using the national definition) moved up to another multi-decade high of 7.5%, having been at 7.0% in December. So that’s bad news for hopes that we were now firmly trending downwards, and the acceleration of core inflation will raise concerns about how persistent its still proving. Next up is French inflation today with German consumer prices, slated for today, now being postponed to next week, seemingly due to technicalities over new base effects. Very intriguing! Staying with inflation, the US employment cost index (ECI) is a very important release today, especially ahead of the FOMC.
Even before the Spanish numbers, investors were already expecting that the ECB would be the most hawkish central bank this week, but that print served to ratchet that up further. For instance, investors are now fully anticipating a 50bps hike on Thursday, but pricing further out now points to 147bps of further hikes by July, which was up +8.9bps on the day. In turn, that led European sovereigns to underperform their counterparts elsewhere, with yields on 10yr bunds (+7.9bps), OATs (+8.3bps), Spanish bonds (+9.1bps) and BTPs (+10.2bps) all rising on the day.
Back to Germany, and we got a further piece of bearish news yesterday after data showed their Q4 GDP growth came in at a contractionary -0.2%, which was beneath expectations for an unchanged reading. That’s a bit of a knock since it goes against the more positive narrative recently that high gas storage and falling prices would aid the economy. It also means that if there’s another contraction in Q1, then the technical definition of a recession would be met.
In other news, it was widely reported yesterday that the EU are set to respond to the US’ Inflation Reduction Act by loosening the rules on tax credits. The proposals are set to be published tomorrow, but according to a Bloomberg who’d seen a draft it included a Net-Zero Industry Act to simplify regulations, among others. European Commission President von der Leyen is giving a speech on the issue tomorrow, and ahead of that, our European economists put out a report (link here) where they assess the technical details behind various policy options along with their pros and cons.
Back in the US, Treasuries might not have struggled as much as their European counterparts, but it was still a tough day as investors positioned ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision. That meant yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +3.3bps, and the more policy-sensitive 2yr yield was up +3.5bps at 4.234%. As with the ECB, those moves were in part because investors ramped up their hawkish expectations of the Fed, with terminal rate pricing for June up +2.0bps on the day to a nearly 3-week high of 4.931%.
Late in the US session, there was news that the Biden administration was weighing fully cutting off Chinese technology company Huawei from American suppliers, including US chipmakers such as AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm. President Trump’s administration had initially named Huawei a national security concern, which meant that US companies were required to receive approval from the government before transacting with Huawei. According to Bloomberg, Huawei sales make up less than 1% of revenue for AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm. However, investors should keep an eye on possible knock-on effects if the US does ban sales to the Chinese company.
This morning in Asia equity markets across the region are trading in negative territory, taking their cue from Wall Street declines overnight. Those negative moves have come despite fresh economic data out of China showing a bounce in activity (more on this below). As I type, the Hang Seng (-1.27%) is the largest underperformer with the CSI (-0.79%) and the Shanghai Composite also drifting lower. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.72%) is also losing ground as index heavy-weight Samsung Electronics’ (-2.74%) operating profit plunged in 4Q of last year amid the global chip downturn. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.21%) is also edging lower. US stock futures are indicating a muted start with those on the S&P 500 (-0.01%) just below flat while contracts tied to the NASDAQ 100 (-0.22%) are seeing slightly deeper losses.
Coming back to China, the official manufacturing PMI swung back to expansion in January after reporting a reading of 50.1 (in-line with consensus), up from a 34-month low of 47.0 in December as the nation ended strict Covid curbs. At the same time, sentiment among service-led businesses improved dramatically as the non-manufacturing PMI came in at an upbeat 54.4 figure (v/s 52.0 expected), marking the healthiest expansion since June 2022. Meanwhile in Japan, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.5% in December with the job-to-applicant ratio staying at 1.35 (v/s 1.36 expected). Separately, retail sales rebounded +1.1% m/m in December, beating the market forecast for a +0.7% rise and against an upwardly revised -1.3% decline in the prior month. Industrial Production also beat a -1.0% consensus with a -0.1% m/m figure for December and compared to a +0.2% increase in November.
Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its 2023 global growth estimates while stating that the EM growth slowdown may have bottomed out in 2022. They forecast that global GDP will likely expand 2.9% in 2023, an improvement of +0.2 percentage from its October prediction, mainly due to resilient demand in the US and Europe coupled with China’s reopening. Additionally, for 2024 it expects global growth to accelerate to 3.1%.
In terms of yesterday’s other data, it was generally on the more positive side. For instance, the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Euro Area in January moved up for a third consecutive month to 99.9 (vs. 97.0 expected), which is its highest level since June. Meanwhile in the US, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index rose to its highest since May at -8.4 (vs. -15.0 expected)
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the first look at Q4 GDP for the Euro Area. Alongside that, we’ll get the French CPI release for January, as well as German unemployment for January and UK mortgage approvals for December. In the US, there’s then the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for January, the ECI, the MNI Chicago PMI for January, and the FHFA house price index for November. Finally, earnings releases include ExxonMobil, Pfizer, McDonald’s, UPS, and Caterpillar.
.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Sentiment soured despite a French inflation induced move higher, US ECI due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 06:33 AM
- European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, as the upside after France’s CPI fizzled out and reverted back to softer APAC performance.
- Stateside, futures are similarly pressured and have been in-fitting with European peers throughout the session ahead of key Employment Cost data, ES -0.5%.
- USD is on the front foot amid the downturn in risk sentiment, EUR pressured post-French CPI while Antipodeans lag despite strong Chinese PMIs
- EGBs are currently mixed/flat, despite pronounced action throughout the session in the wake of French and EZ data points, Bunds are currently towards the lower-end of 136.54-137.30 parameters.
- Crude benchmarks have been moving lower throughout the session as sentiment sours somewhat as we move closer to the week’s key risk events
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Employment Costs, Consumer Confidence. Earnings from Exxon Mobil, Marathon Petroleum, General Motors, Phillips 66, UPS, Pfizer, SYSCO, Caterpillar, AMD, Electronic Arts & Snap.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, as the upside after France’s CPI fizzled out and reverted back to APAC performance.
- Sectors are mostly in the red with Banking names outperforming post-earnings while Basic Resources lag given the risk tone and USD.
- Stateside, futures are similarly pressured and have been in-fitting with European peers throughout the session ahead of key Employment Cost data, ES -0.5%.
- United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 3.96 (exp. 3.59), Revenue USD 27bln (exp. 28.09bln).
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- The USD is on the front-foot as the DXY benefits from the downturn in risk sentiment and as such continues to extend above 102.00 to a 102.61 peak, though the 102.50 mark is proving sticky ahead of data.
- EUR/USD tested 1.08 to the downside following below/in-line with consensus French inflation while the subsequent Flash/Prelim. GDP print for Q4, which was unexpectedly positive, failed to spur any sustained EUR upside.
- Antipodeans are the current laggards with soft Australian retail sales hampering the AUD and more-than-offsetting any positivity from China’s PMIs; AUD/USD down to 0.6999 and NZD/USD to 0.6421 troughs vs 0.7065 and 0.6479 peaks.
- JPY is little changed overall with comparably softer USD yields and the risk tone offsetting the USD’s dominance, USD/JPY in a narrow 130.05-130.53 range.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7604 vs exp. 6.7607 (prev. 6.7626)
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME
- EGBs are currently mixed/flat, despite pronounced action throughout the session in the wake of French and EZ data points, Bunds are currently towards the lower-end of 136.54-137.30 parameters.
- The complex experienced an initial bid on the in-line/slightly cooler than consensus French inflation metrics before slipping following unexpectedly positive EZ Q4 QQ GDP, as the more resilient economy provides the ECB with the necessary cover to continue tightening.
- Amidst this, Gilts and USTs have been directionally in-fitting but with magnitudes more contained ahead of Thursday’s BoE and today’s key US data ahead of the FOMC; currently, US yields are a touch softer with action slightly more pronounced at the short-end of the curve.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks have been moving lower throughout the session as sentiment sours somewhat as we move closer to the week’s key risk events.
- Thus far, WTI March has dipped under USD 77/bbl (from a USD 78.14/bbl high) while its Brent April counterpart fell under USD 83.50/bbl (from a USD 84.80/bbl high).
- Russia banned domestic oil exporters from adhering to Western price caps and called on the energy ministry to devise an approach for monitoring prices of Russian oil exports by March 1st.
- Spot gold has tested USD 1900/oz to the downside, though the figure at 21-DMA at USD 1901/oz is seemingly providing support with the yellow metal yet to move below the figure; LME Copper is downbeat given the above risk tone and firmer USD.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- IMF raised its 2023 global GDP growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.7% citing resilience in advanced economies and China reopening but cut its 2024 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.2% due to steeper monetary policy tightening. Click here for more detail.
- French and German Economy Ministers are to head to the US on February 6th-7th, to attempt to “iron out” the disagreement sparked by the US’ Inflation Reduction Act, via Politico citing sources.
- UK PM Sunak has been warned by two former negotiators, including Lord Frost not to trade off the power to overrule the EU in Northern Ireland in order to make a deal with Brussels, according to The Telegraph.
- Riksbank Governor Thedeen says high inflation and increasing interest rates are testing the resilience of the Swedish financial system.
NOTABLE DATA
- French CPI Prelim. YY NSA (Jan) 6.0% vs. Exp. 6.1% (Prev. 5.9%); HICP Prelim. YY (Jan) 7.0% vs. Exp. 7.0% (Prev. 6.7%)
- French CPI Prelim. MM NSA (Jan) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.1%); HICP Prelim. MM (Jan) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.1%)
- EU GDP Flash Prelim QQ (Q4) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%); YY (Q4) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.3%)
- German Retail Sales MM Real (Dec) -5.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 1.1%, Rev. 1.9%); YY Real (Dec) -6.4% vs. Exp. -1.8% (Prev. -5.9%)
- German Unemployment Rate SA (Jan) 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 5.5%); Change SA (Jan) -15k vs. Exp. 5.0k (Prev. -13.0k)
- Citi/YouGov UK Inflation Expectations (Jan): 5-10yrs ahead 3.5% (3.6%), one-year 5.4% (prev. 5.7%)
- Kantar UK Supermarket update (Jan): grocery price inflation 16.7%, +2.3pp MM to a record level.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Biden is to end COVID-19 emergency declarations on May 11th, according to the White House.
- US President Biden announces funding for major transportation projects funded by the bipartisan infrastructure law; USD 1.2bln across nine projects.
- The Biden administration plans to release the president’s budget on March 9th, according to Punchbowl sources.
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.
GEOPOLITICS
- Russia and Belarus began joint military staff training, according to the Belarusian Defence Ministry.
- US President Biden said the US will not send Ukraine F-16 jets, according to CBS News.
- S. Korean and US Defence Chiefs pledge to expand the level and scale of joint military drills.
- NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said to Japan that the war in Ukraine demonstrates that their security is closely interconnected and he appreciates the support Japan provides including cargo capabilities, while he added that they will continue to strengthen the partnership between Japan and NATO, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is essentially unchanged within very narrow USD 22.48-22.99k parameters as participants await afternoon US data.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks declined following the weak lead from global counterparts added to the cautiousness heading into the upcoming risk events, while a rebound in Chinese PMI data failed to inspire a rally as the region also digested a slew of earnings updates.
- ASX 200 was subdued as the outperformance in defensives was offset by losses in tech and with Retail Sales at a larger-than-expected contraction.
- Nikkei 225 softened amid a deluge of earnings releases which impacted several of the largest movers in the index, although losses were contained by better-than-expected data releases.
- KOSPI suffered amid losses in its largest constituent Samsung Electronics which posted its lowest quarterly operating profit in 8 years and flagged macroeconomic uncertainties will persist this year.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured despite the strong Chinese PMI data which topped forecasts and returned to expansion territory, while attention was also on preliminary earnings and reports that US President Biden’s team is weighing fully cutting off Huawei from US suppliers.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US Commerce Department notified companies it would no longer grant them licences to export to Huawei as the White House mulls fully cutting off Huawei from US suppliers, according to FT and Bloomberg.
- US is pushing for military sites in the Philippines to counter China, according to WSJ.
- Indian Gov’t Economic Survey: 2023/24 GDP Growth 6.0-6.8%, baseline GDP growth pegged at 11% nominal and 6.5% in real terms.
- Chinese Premier Li says will keep economic operations within a reasonable range, according to state media; maintaining financial stability and fending off risks still long-term and arduous tasks, will keep the Yuan exchange rate basically stable.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.1 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 47.0); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 54.4 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 41.6)
- Chinese Composite PMI (Jan) 52.9 (Prev. 42.6)
- Japanese Industrial Production Prelim. MM (Dec) -0.1% vs. Exp. -1.2% (Prev. 0.2%); Retail Sales YY (Dec) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.6%, Rev. 2.5%)
- Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Dec) -3.9% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 1.4%)
1.c TUESDAY/ MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.65 PTS OR .42% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 227.40 PTS OR 1.03% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 106.29 PTS OR 0.39% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .18% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7675 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7666// /Oil DOWN TO 77.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83.66 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/CHINA
This is getting a little frightening: Japan intercepts armed Chinese ships in Japanese water near the disputed Senkaku islands. These islands have been in Japanese hands
for over a century. They were given to the USA at the end of World War ii but Japan was to administer them. They are uninhabited.
(zerohedge)
Japan Intercepts Armed Chinese Flotilla Near Disputed Islands
MONDAY, JAN 30, 2023 – 06:00 PM
The Japanese government has lashed out at Beijing, condemning an incident wherein a flotilla of Chinese government vessels breached Japan-claimed waters around the disputed Senkaku islands in the East China Sea.
Tokyo has lodged a formal diplomatic complaint after a Japanese-registered private vessel operating within Japanese-controlled waters was approached by four Chinese Coast Guard ships in the early morning hours of Monday. Tokyo says its coast guard patrols forced the Chinese ships to depart the area.
The encounter was tense, based on the description given to US military news outlet Stars & Stripes, which recounted that “The first Chinese ship approached Minamikojima from the southeast and entered the 12-mile limit at 2:47 a.m., according to the coast guard spokesman. He said the vessel appeared to be armed with a deck-mounted machine-gun.”
Three more Chinese ships followed the first armed patrol, after which “A contingent of Japan Coast Guard vessels positioned themselves between the Chinese and Japanese ships and warned the Chinese vessels to leave the area,” according to Japanese officials. “The first Chinese vessel departed the waters south of Uotsurijima at 12:35 p.m.”
As for the Chinese side, which doesn’t recognize Japanese sovereignty over the islands or the surrounding waters, its Marine Police spokesperson Gan Yu said it responded to multiple Japanese ships “illegally” entering the waters of the the Diaoyu islands (China’s recognized name for the Senkakus).
“We urge the Japanese side to immediately stop all illegal activities in these waters and ensure that similar incidents will not happen again,” Gan said.
The Chinse incursion near the islands was the second this year, after a Jan.10 incident. The longtime dispute has helped to worse Japan-China relations, also at a moment Tokyo’s deepened military cooperation with Washington has angered Beijing.
Starting last year the US began pledging military support to Japan in the event of a Chinese attack on the Senkakus. The Biden White House position, recently reaffirmed to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, is that the islands fall under Article V of the Japan-US Security Treaty, which is the basis for mutual defense.
3c CHINA /
CHINA
Do not put too much trust in Chinese figures. They announced that their PMI’s have soared back into expansion.
(zerohedge)
China PMIs Soar Back Into Expansion, Celebrating End Of Covid Zero
MONDAY, JAN 30, 2023 – 11:20 PM
China is done with Covid Zero and wants the world to know it.
Two weeks after Beijing’s amazing goalseek-o-tron reported blowout economic data, including beats across the board in retail sales, GDP, industrial production and fixed investment, moments ago the National Bureau of Statistics (which in recent years has been competing with the US BLS who can come up with the most outrageously manipulated “data”), reported that in January (which is still not over but who cares) manufacturing PMI roared back (just barely) into expansion, printing 50.1 from a contractionary 47.0 in December and matching estimates, on resumption of production and ongoing recovery in demand (in the manufacturing PMI survey, both the output sub-index and the new orders sub-index rose by more than 5 points). Even more remarkable, the non-manufacturing PMI exploded to 54.4 in January from 41.6 in December, smashing expectations of a 52.0 print and showing improvements in both the construction and services sectors.
Putting the non-Mfg PMI move in context, this was the second biggest increase on record, trailing only the March 2020 post-covid record when China shock-therapied its economy into kickstarting with the help of trillions in new debt.
Some additional commentary courtesy of Goldman:
The China NBS purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) survey suggested manufacturing activity increased in January on resumption of production and ongoing recovery in demand. The NBS manufacturing PMI headline index rose significantly to 50.1 in January from 47.0 in December. The improvements are broad-based among all five major sub-indexes: the output sub-index rose to 49.8 from 44.6, the new orders sub-index increased to 50.9 from 43.9 and the employment sub-index rebounded to 47.7 from 44.8.
What is of biggest interest here may be the suppliers’ delivery times sub-index, which rose notably to 47.6 in January from 40.1 in December, implying faster supplier deliveries as NBS indicated that the labor shortage issues (due to large number of workers falling sick in December during the Covid “exit wave”) were eased. NBS commented that the improvement of manufacturing activity was mainly linked to acceleration in both demand and production and the LNY holiday impacted the production to some degree. The sharp improvement in supplier delivery times will serve to further alleviate any residual inflationary bottlenecks, a legacy of China’s lockdown days, as traffic to the US – inasmuch as anyone ordered inventory amid this reverse bullwhip period – arrives faster than expected.
On the trade-related sub-indexes, the new export order sub-index increased to 46.1 in January (vs. 44.2 in December) but remained below 50, pointing to still weak external demand. The import sub-index rose to 46.7 in January (vs.43.7 in December). The raw material inventories sub-index rose to 49.6 from 47.1, and the finished goods inventories sub-index rose to 47.2 from 46.6.
By enterprise size, the PMIs of large/medium/small enterprises increased to 52.3/48.6/47.2 in January (vs. 48.3/46.4/44.7 in December). Price indicators in the NBS manufacturing survey suggest inflationary pressure for producer and consumer diverged in January. The input cost sub-index increased to 52.2 (vs. 51.6 in December) while the output prices sub-index declined slightly to 48.7 (vs. 49.0 in December).
The official non-manufacturing PMI (comprised of the services and construction sectors) soared to 54.4 in January (vs. 41.6 in December), thanks to a sharp acceleration in both construction and services sectors. The services PMI rebounded sharply to 54.0 (vs. 39.4 in December). According to the survey, the PMIs of transport service industries such as postal, airline and road transport services were above 60 in January. Meanwhile, the PMIs of close-contact service industries such as retail sales, hotel and catering services rose more than 24 points from December. That said, NBS indicated that the PMIs of property related sectors were still below 50. The construction PMI rose in January to 56.4 (vs.54.4 in December). NBS noted that the expansionary pace of the construction sector (presumably infrastructure-related) remained fast.
Looking at the market’s response, Bloomberg’s Mark Cranfield writes that “the CSI 300 index is ending January slightly below recent highs but its upward momentum is set to extend into February, looking past a report of the US considering cutting off Huawei from suppliers… which won’t be much of a surprise to traders, especially after the US agreed with the Netherlands and Japan to restrict exports of some advanced chipmaking machinery to China.”
That said, while the China PMI data is encouraging for equity bulls, notably the 54.4 print for services, and adds to the positive impulse from high frequency data over the Lunar New Year break, it took won’t be much of a surprise following the mid-January data dump which beat expectations in every category. However, the pristine data – fake as it may be – will certainly encourage continued foreign inflows into China’s stock market, which in January exceeded the whole of 2022!
Bottom line, while the CSI 300 – which recently tipped into a bull market – may need a little bit longer to consolidate after the steep advance this month, BBG concludes that “the outlook for the rest of the first quarter is bright.”
end
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
UK
My goodness: London police recruiting illiterate officers who can barely write English to meet their stupid diversity quotas
(Watson/SummitNews)
London Police Recruiting Illiterate Officers Who Can Barely Write English To Meet Diversity Quotas
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
The Metropolitan Police in London is recruiting officers who are illiterate, can barely write English, and may have a criminal record in order to meet diversity quotas, it has been revealed.
Yes, really.
A 2014 promise to have 40% of the force be represented by ethnic minorities by 2023 has fallen well short, with just 17% of officers being from ‘diverse’ backgrounds.
Matt Parr, the head of the organization responsible for inspecting British police forces, told the Telegraph that London, “which will likely be a minority white city in the next decade or so, should not be policed by an overwhelmingly white police force.”
In addition to the optics of a largely white police force being wrong, Parr said it was also, “operationally wrong, because it means that the Met does not get insight into some of the communities it polices and that has caused problems in the past. So we completely support the drive to make the Met much more representative of the community it serves than it is at the moment.”
That drive has however led to officers being hired who struggle to even write up basic crime reports.
“They are taking in significant numbers of people who are, on paper at least, functionally illiterate in English,” said Parr, adding that the Met was “recruiting the wrong people” and that the diversity push had “lowered standards.”
However, Parr also noted that it was a good thing that the Met was “taking a risk” by hiring young black men who may have criminal records.
David Spencer, the head of the think tank Policy Exchange and a former Metropolitan Police officer, said that the diversity drive had lowered standards.
“There is a tension between volume, quality and diversity and something has to give,” Spencer explained. “Someone has to ask what is the most important of those three things and you have to be really careful because once you have recruited someone they are possibly going to be there for the next 30 years.”
As we previously highlighted, police resources in London are so stretched that major department stores have given up on calling them to catch shoplifters.
Car theft in London has effectively been decriminalized, with just 277 out of 55,000 offences being solved by Scotland Yard, a 0.5% success rate.
However, there still appears to be plenty of resources available to interrogate people for posting offensive social media posts.
end
EUROPE/GERMANY/USA
Very important read: the price shock of energy is just starting to hit. Germany industry is paying 40% more for energy today than they did in 2021. This will cause an escalation of goods pricing and may alter the balance for industries to compete. No question that Asian and Middle East companies will fare a lot better due to lower wage prices
(zerohedge)
The “Price Shock” is Just Starting: German Industry To Pay 40% More For Energy Than Pre-Crisis
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 04:15 AM
Back in August 2022, repo plumbing guru Zoltan Pozsar published a fascinating chart showing how “$2 Trillion Of German Value Depends On $20 Billion Of Russian Gas” or specifically, how Germany had applied some 100x leverage – much more than Lehman – on cheap commodities, and mostly Russian gas, to cheaply run its export-driven economic miracle for decades.
And with Russia’s cheap gas now gone for the foreseeable future, so is Germany’s tremendous operating leverage. Which means profit margins will be hammered for years to come.
As proof look no further than a study published Monday by Allianz Trade which cited contract expiries and delayed wholesale pricing effects, and which according to Reuters found that German industry is set to pay about 40% more for energy in 2023 than in 2021, before the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“The large energy-price shock still lies ahead for European corporates,” said Allianz Trade, the credit insurer that changed its name from Euler Hermes last year.
As a reminder, in 2022, higher corporate utility bills were contained as long pass-through times from wholesale markets and government interventions mitigated the immediate hit from surging prices as Russia curbed fuel exports to the West. The resulting budget deficits were promptly funded by the ECB, which meant that for all the posturing, Christine Lagarde was directly funding Putin’s cash build up.
But the pass-throughs are ending, which means that price increases will soon hit corporate profits across Europe by 1-1.5% and lead to lower investment, which in Germany’s case would amount to 25 billion euros ($27 billion), Allianz Trade estimated.
The silver lining is that German companies’ finances are robust, while a state-imposed gas price cap would help (unless it makes things much worse).
At the same time, fears the crisis could lead to de-industrialisation and a loss of competitiveness against the United States were overdone, because labor costs and exchange rates have a bigger impact on manufacturing than energy prices, the study said. Also, while exporters were losing market shares in areas such as agrifood, machinery, electrical equipment, metals and transport, the relative beneficiaries tended to be Asian, Middle Eastern and African, not American, it added.
Meanwhile, the economic ministry said on Saturday that the German government’s one-off payment to help private households and small businesses with gas prices – the first stage of a package that will be complemented with retroactive price caps kicking in in March – has cost 4.3 billion euros so far.
Berlin has earmarked 12 billion euros for the payment, but the ministry said 4.3 billion euros was not the final cost as many eligible firms had not yet applied for the aid. They have until the end of February to apply; and judging by the huge losses they still face, they will.
END
France
500,000 CITIZENS hit the streets of Paris today
Pepe Escobar on Twitter: “Paris. 500,000 people in the streets. 2,8 million across France. Melenchon described it, correctly, as “a citizen insurrection”. Le Petit Roi, meanwhile, was adulating a couple of Ukrainians. And gave them 12 more Caesar howitzers. https://t.co/KePOredivO” / Twitter
| Robert Hryniak | 1:31 PM (6 minutes ago) | | |
| to | |||
Since peaceful protests seem to fall on deaf ears, should we ponder if the French will dust off the guillotine for another French Revolution. This kind of change always occurs when leadership is deaf to the one cry not heard.
In France the only question is who will act first, the general population or the Muslims who have eagerly taken next day delivery of many arms sold by the Ukrainians from Stingers to 50 caliber machine guns.
As for Macron’s thoughts of Statesmanship in speaking with Putin, he is delusional as he has zero creditability.
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/BELARUS
Putin establishes joint military training centres with Belarus. Complete invasion is now a foregone conclusion
(zerohedge)
Putin Establishes Joint Military Training Centers With Belarus
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 12:52 PM
President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree ordering the establishment of joint military training centers with Belarus, in a potential sign that Russia’s ‘Union State’ ally under Alexander Lukashenko is preparing to join the Ukraine invasion, which is soon to hit its one year mark by the end of February.
“In a decree published Tuesday, Putin tasked the defense and foreign ministers to conduct talks with Belarus and sign an agreement to establish the facilities,” the AFP reports. “The document did not specify where they would be based.”
Currently, Moscow and Minsk are participating in joint air force drills which are scheduled to last until Feb. 1st, and there’s been an increase in Russian top level official visits to Belarus of late.
Putin had made a rare visit to Belarus on Dec.19, where he met with President Lukashenko in Minsk, and the two discussed the formation of a “unified defense space” – but no details were offered in terms of operational details involved in implementing such a plan.
Ukraine has meanwhile continued to fear that the Kremlin’s next escalation and potential large-scale mobilization could involve the formal entry of Belarus into the war. Lukashenko had at the start of the invasion allowed Russian troops to use his territory as a launching pad.
Last week there were reports that Kiev offered Belarus a ‘non-aggression’ pact, which is without doubt geared toward preventing a feared Belarusian cross-border offensive. This also came amid claims that Russia is launching drones against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure from Belarus.
Lukashenko had confirmed Ukraine’s offer last week:
“On the one hand, they ask us not to fight Ukraine under any circumstances, not to move our forces there. They offer us to sign a non-aggression pact,” Lukashenko told officials in a meeting in Minsk, according to the Belta state news agency. On the other hand, Ukraine has been training and arming people to fight Belarus, he added.
He again denied that there are any plans to send Belarusian troops into Ukraine, but he’s also remained a staunch defender of Putin’s order for Russia to invade, and has called out the “completely insane” actions of nearby NATO countries such as Poland and Lithuania.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE//USA
Putin is amazing. He is now offering $71,000 cash bounty for either destruction or capture of first Western tanks//then $7,000 for each and every tank
(zerohedge)
Russian Firm Offers $71,000 Cash Bounty For Destruction Or Capture Of Western Tanks
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 02:45 AM
Within days of the US and Germany approving heavy main battle tanks for Ukraine, including future deliveries of the advanced Abrams M1 and Leopard tanks, one Russian company has issued a bounty for their destruction.
“A Russian company has offered a cash bounty of up to 5 million rubles ($71,648) for the destruction or capture of Western-made tanks recently promised to Ukraine by its European and American allies,” according to regional media reports.
Apparently the race will be on for Russian troops (or mercenaries, in the case of Wagner Group) to be the “first” – given the Yekaterinburg-based company Fores stipulated the $70,000+ reward for whoever destroys or captures the initial western tank, with a pay out of 500,000 rubles ($7,164) for each subsequent tank.
Fores said it is motivated by a patriotic desire to support the national army:
“The decision to transfer western tanks to Kyiv indicates that NATO is no longer supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons only and means that we need to consolidate and support our army,” Fores said in a statement.
It comes after the Kremlin said that tanks provided by Washington will “burn” – and that ultimately they will make no different for Ukraine’s chances on the battlefield.
“I am certain that many experts understand the absurdity of this idea. The plan is disastrous in terms of technology,” Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last Wednesday. “But above all, it overestimates the potential it will add to the Ukrainian army. These tanks burn just like all the others.”
Given that already the Ukrainian government is claiming to be involved in ‘fast-track’ talks with Western backers to receive fighter jets like the US F-16, we wonder how big a ‘bounty’ Russian companies will offer for airplanes.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Sixty USA tanks are now bound for Ukraine
(zerohedge)
Track US Vessel With 60 Bradley Tanks Bound For Ukraine
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 05:45 AM
Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing battle plans along the frontline as a Russian spring offensive could be ahead. Western countries are sending main battle tanks and other vehicles to thwart the coming escalation in fighting.
Last week, President Biden announced 31 M1 Abrams main battle tanks (without secret armor) would be sent to Ukraine. Germany, Norway, Poland, and other NATO countries will send other tanks, including the Leopard 2. Even Morocco will send older T-72 series tanks, currently in use in the war-torn country.
All of these ‘donated’ tanks sound great, but if they don’t make it to Europe and race across the battlefield by spring, then the Ukranians might have trouble repelling the Russians.
A press release via the US Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM), a segment of the US military responsible for transporting equipment worldwide, detailed last week that a large roll-on/roll-off vessel named “ARC Integrity” loaded 60 Bradley Fighting Vehicles destined for Ukraine.
As of Monday, and according to USTRANSCOM’s press release noting the vessel’s name, data via MarineTraffic shows ARC Integrity is full steam ahead in the Atlantic Ocean and will arrive at the Port in Southampton, England, on Feb. 7.
USTRANSCOM uses large ro-ro carriers to transport all sorts of military equipment worldwide. These fighting vehicles are being loaded at ports along East Coast and Gulf Coast states.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
Russian Troops Uncover Ukrainian Child Organ Harvesting Operation
| Robert Hryniak | 9:48 AM (24 minutes ago) | | |
| to | |||
I have written many times that there are some really sick people there … i have heard from people there and priests about organ harvesting from soldiers for years.. apart from the bio labs where testing was done on military and civilian personnel in attempts to develop specific targeting strains of killer vaccines for Slavic people … because anyone sharing Slavic blood could be killed and not just Russians .. now this research has moved on to places like Poland, where it will be tested on Poles if it is now already.
This is all part of a really sick illness that should not exist in a modern society. Just like child trafficking has no business being condoned in any society, let alone the West. There was more intelligence amongst savages than we have now, as we turn a blind eye to what goes on around us. When Qaddafi closed the slave market in Tripoli, he had more class than the clown show that replaced him now which has re-opened It, selling women and children, and men as slaves as it was before, for hundreds of years. It is longest running and oldest slave market in the world. And we turn a blind eye to people ripped from their lives to be sold as common flesh having no regard for them. What makes less human than us? Because it could be anyone today who gets trafficked.
And we are asked by inept leadership to condone such balderdash? Perhaps the problem is the leadership which needs to see the trash bin. If we allow such crap behavior to exist unchecked we will destroy the civility the majority of people have come to believe built standards by which which to judge others. Because one day we will be judged and that may be already be the case as the Global South tells us to piss off, as they want no part of the West. The movement which represents the majority of the planet’s population is a lot more than just having a separate currency or non centric western trade. And if the West is not astute enough to caught the nature of changing winds, it will likely within several years find itself being at war with 80%+ of the world who wants the West gone. And everything that goes with it. Will history write we were intelligent enough to change or will we fall like so many empires and civilizations throughout history, as the sands of time wait for no one.
And if you think this is nonsense, please travel beyond the West to see with your own eyes the changing attitudes towards the West. Because this is a very real trend that is gathering steam quickly. And phrase “yankee go home” represents far more than Americans, as the same now applies to Canadians, Brits, and Europeans in the Global South.
end
end
/
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
Doesn’t the hospital read??? Why are earth are they forcing kidney and heart patients to be a deadly vaccination. We await the decision of the court
(Stephen Kovac/EpochTimes)
Unvaccinated Kidney And Heart Patients Denied Transplants Get Day In Court With Michigan Hospital
MONDAY, JAN 30, 2023 – 08:20 PM
Authored by Steven Kovac via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A Michigan judge will soon decide if 73-year-old Ross Barranco can be denied a donated kidney because he won’t take the COVID-19 vaccine.
“I just don’t see the logic of it,” stated Barranco in an interview with The Epoch Times. “Everybody knows an organ transplant procedure requires the nearly complete suppression of a recipient’s immune system so the body won’t reject it.
“Then why do I need to be immunized against COVID before the operation?”
When asked if he thought the vaccine would make any difference in his prognosis, he replied, “Yeah, the vax can kill me.
“To qualify for a transplant both of my kidneys have to be functioning at 20 percent or less. What if the vax destroys the remaining function before the operation? If it does, I’m done.
“The jab does absolutely nothing beneficial for a transplant patient,” he said.
Given the current COVID-19 testing capability, it remains unclear why transplant patients cannot be tested for COVID-19 before the operation. A negative result could then green-light the procedure.
It is also unclear why, given the data showing numerous fully vaccinated people have come down with COVID-19 multiple times, the shot is still being regarded by some hospitals as an immunization.
Barranco’s legal team made reference to a 2021 survey of 200 transplant centers across the country.
Of the 140 that responded to the survey, only half required transplant candidates to take a COVID-19 vaccine regimen.
“The vax can hardly be deemed medically necessary if half of the responding transplant centers are not requiring it,” said Deborah Catalono of the Liberty Counsel, a researcher tracking hospital transplant policies and a lawyer familiar with many similar cases to that of Barranco and Shier.
The Liberty Counsel is a non-profit, litigation, education, and policy organization dedicated to upholding religious liberty and Christian values.
Medical questions and safety concerns aside, Barranco, a Roman Catholic, actually refused the vaccine on religious grounds.
He said his faith and conscience do not permit him to receive a shot that he is convinced was developed using body parts obtained from aborted babies and has fetal tissue in its ingredients.
Vax-up or Else
On Feb. 1, 2022, Barranco received what he perceived as an “ultimatum” from the University of Michigan Health System in Ann Arbor.
“There’s an active list and a holding list for patients awaiting a transplant. At the time, I was on the holding list.
“That’s when the hospital gave me three months to get three COVID shots, or they would throw me off the list entirely,” said Barranco.
“I refused, and they threw me off. That’s when I contacted an attorney.”
Mary Clare Fischer, a public relations representative with the University of Michigan Health Transplant Center in Ann Arbor, outlined the hospital’s position in an email to The Epoch Times.
“[Our] policy aims to protect transplant recipients from complications of COVID-19 infection, which has had devastating effects in our patient population.
“Immunocompromised solid organ transplant recipients have among the highest risk of severe illness or death from COVID-19 infection.
“At present, all of the nearly 1,000 adult patients active on our waiting list are vaccinated against COVID-19 infection.
“As is true of all of our Transplant Center policies and processes, this policy is a critical step in partnering with our patients to maximize the safety of our transplant recipients and provide them the best opportunity to regain their health and quality of life through the gift of transplantation,” she said.
Fischer stated that the transplant center is one of a “significant number” of American hospitals that require the COVID-19 vaccination for adult heart, lung, liver, pancreas, and kidney transplant patients on their active lists.
The University of Michigan Hospital policy exempts critically ill patients who may not have time to complete the three-phase vaccine protocol, as well as patients with prior vaccine allergies.
Why Not Katie?
Katie Shier, Barranco’s co-plaintiff in the case, is an unvaccinated 35-year-old mother of five who is a candidate for a heart transplant.
She is being kept alive by a ventricular assist device that has developed an infection, according to the plaintiffs’ attorney, David Peters of the Pacific Justice Institute.
The Pacific Justice Institute is a non-profit legal defense organization specializing in the defense of religious freedom, parental rights, and other civil liberties.
The Institute is representing Shier and Barannco free of charge.
Shier, a Roman Catholic, objects to taking the COVID-19 vaccination on religious grounds.
On June 29, 2021, Shier was granted placement on the transplant waiting list.
U of M Hospital’s subsequently adopted mandatory vaccination policy now precludes her from undergoing the heart transplant necessary to save her life.
Peters told The Epoch Times that, due to the low functioning of Shier’s heart, at any time she could slip into “imminent or immediate danger and be rushed to the hospital” and maybe qualify for a transplant under the hospital’s vaccination exemption for the critically ill.
“Sadly, it looks like that is something the court will have to order. We have emergency motions ready to go,” said Peters.
Shier told The Epoch Times in a phone interview on Jan. 27, 2023, “I’ve been so busy, I haven’t had much time to think about my situation.
“It is in God’s hands. All I want to do is do God’s will. After much prayer, the Lord led me not to give in, but to file the lawsuit.
“I’m fighting for three things.
“The doctors said I have an infection that can only be cured by a heart transplant.
“I believe it’s wrong to require someone to take a dangerous vaccine, so I want to see an end to the mandates.
“And, most importantly, I do not want to take any vaccine or medication that has been tainted by abortion.
“Two of the major pharmaceutical companies making the vaccine developed it from the HEK-293 fetal cell line.
“Some vaccines are known to have fetal tissue in them, and some tests are being conducted on still-living fetuses without anesthesia,” she alleged.
“I’m fighting for a person’s right to refuse any vaccine that is associated with abortion,” she added.
Peters told The Epoch Times that some people misconstrue the case as a medical malpractice suit against U of M Hospital.
“It is not about malpractice. It is about due process rights.
“Both Ross and Katie regard UMH as one of the best hospitals in the world.
“For that reason, Katie won’t go elsewhere. She wants her new heart to come from UMH.”
Barranco told The Epoch Times that he checked out another transplant center, but he prefers UMH.
A ‘Rollercoaster’ Ordeal
Barranco, a petroleum geological engineer for 46 six years, has battled high blood pressure and diabetes for decades—the things he says caused his kidney dysfunction.
In September 2020, he was told to start investigating the various types of dialysis.
“I began talking to U of M in 2021.
“Eventually, they called me in for an in-person exam. They found both of my kidneys were not working right.
“The doctors do not want to remove a partially functioning kidney while it is still contributing, so the plan was to add a third kidney.
“Soon, I was approved to be on their holding list,” Barranco said.
His hopes for relief plummeted when a blood test revealed he had contracted an autoimmune disease that attacked his lungs and kidneys.
His transplant was sidetracked, and Barranco was placed on chemotherapy.
The chemo worked, and he recovered.
“That happened before I could begin dialysis.
“My plan always has been to skip dialysis if I could, because when it fails, as it eventually always does, that’s the end of the line,” he said.
After his recovery, Barranco’s hopes soared again when U of M Hospital officially put him on its active list.
Concern for Others
When his kidneys amazingly began to improve in response to some lifestyle changes, Barranco requested that the hospital drop him back down to the holding list, “so others more in immediate need of a transplant could take my place on the active list,” he said.
He also insisted, against the hospital’s recommendation, that he wait for a cadaver donor rather than a living donor.
“I figured a living donor would be reduced to one good kidney. He or she could possibly die on the operating table or die from post-op complications. It is a risky operation.
“Or, what if later in life the living donor developed high blood pressure or diabetes with only one kidney?
“There I’d be, doing just fine, but the person that helped me would be suffering. What about him or her?” said Barranco.
Barranco told The Epoch Times his goal is to have no more COVID-19 vaccine mandates, “so that future patients won’t have to go through what I have gone through.”
Political or Medical?
President Joe Biden issued an order through the Occupational Health and Safety Administration in November 2021 that would eventually result in the denial of organ transplants to unvaccinated patients like Barranco and Shier.
The federal order mandating COVID-19 vaccinations for health care workers and those professionally associated with them was narrowly permitted to stand by the United States Supreme Court in late January 2022.
Just prior to that decision, on Jan. 13, 2022, the High Court struck down the Biden-ordered Occupational Safety and Health Administration Emergency Temporary Standard mandating that private employers with more than 100 employees require that their workers receive the COVID-19 vaccines.
It was that February that Barranco received notice from U of M Hospital that he had three months to get all three shots or be completely disqualified for a kidney transplant.
“We jumped through all their hoops, and the hospital changed the rules in the middle of the game. They threw us off the active list.
“For people like Katie Shier and me, the message was clear—get vaccinated or die,” said Barranco.
Read more here…
end
Idiots!! More booster shots will cause for damage
(zerohedge)
Australian Health Authorities Call For More COVID Boosters… But The Public Says No
MONDAY, JAN 30, 2023 – 09:20 PM
Australia and New Zealand suffered some of the worst pandemic mandate conditions of any country in the western world, crossing the line into totalitarianism on a number of occasions. Australian authorities restricted residents of larger cities to near house arrest, with people not being allowed to go more than 3 miles from their homes. Citizens were given curfew hours between 9pm and 5am. They were banned from public parks and beaches without a mask, even though it is nearly impossible to transmit a virus outdoors and UV light from the sun acts as a natural disinfectant.
In the worst examples, Australian citizens received visits from police and government officials for posting critical opinions about the mandates on social media. Some were even arrested for calling for protests against the lockdowns. In Australia and New Zealand, covid camps were built to detain people infected with covid. Some facilities were meant for those who had recently traveled, others were meant for anyone who stepped out of line.
As the fears over covid wane and the populace realizes that the true Infection Fatality Rate of the virus is incredibly small, restrictions are being abandoned and things seems to be going back to normal. It’s important, however, to never forget what happened and how many countries faced potentially permanent authoritarianism under the shadow of vaccine passports. If the passports rules had been successfully enforced, we would be living in a very different world today in the west.
Luckily, the passports were never implemented widely. Australian health authorities are once again calling for the public to take a fourth covid booster shot, but with very little response. Only 40% of citizens took the third booster, and new polling data shows that 30% are taking the fourth booster.
With an astonishing rise in excess deaths by heart failure in Australia coinciding exactly with the introduction of the covid mRNA vaccines, perhaps people are deciding to finally er on the side of caution. Why take the risk of an experimental vaccine over a virus that 99.8% of the population will easily survive?
end
Biden to end Covid 19 emergency on May 11. Why in May and not now?
(Ly//EpochTimes)
Biden To End COVID-19 Emergency Declarations On May 11, Also Ends Title 42 Policy At Border
MONDAY, JAN 30, 2023 – 10:00 PM
By Mimi Nguyen Ly, of Epoch Times
The Biden administration has informed Congress it plans to end national COVID-19 emergency declarations on May 11.
The move would shift the U.S. government’s response for managing COVID-19 back to the normal authorities given to federal agencies, with the virus to be considered as endemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic was declared a national emergency at the start of the outbreak by then-President Donald Trump on March 13, 2020. President Joe Biden has repeatedly extended the emergency declarations since.
The White House noted on Monday that the COVID-19 national emergency and the public health emergency (PHE) are currently set to expire on March 1 and April 11.
“At present, the Administration’s plan is to extend the emergency declarations to May 11, and then end both emergencies on that date,” the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) stated in an administration policy statement (pdf).
“This wind-down would align with the Administration’s previous commitments to give at least 60 days’ notice prior to termination of the PHE.”
“To be clear, continuation of these emergency declarations until May 11 does not impose any restriction at all on individual conduct with regard to COVID-19,” the administration policy statement reads. “They do not impose mask mandates or vaccine mandates. They do not restrict school or business operations. They do not require the use of any medicines or tests in response to cases of COVID-19.”
Under the PHE declaration, the federal government has been funding COVID-19 vaccines, as well as some tests and treatments. When this ends, the costs will be transferred to private insurance and government health plans.
Costs of COVID-19 vaccines are expected to surge once the federal government stops buying them. Pfizer has said it will charge about $110–$130 per dose.
Meanwhile, the $1.7 trillion omnibus bill passed by Congress and signed into law by Biden in 2022 contains a provision that will eliminate Medicaid coverage protection from PHE, meaning that states can start removing people who do not meet Medicaid criteria beginning on April 1.
The OMB in a separate administration policy statement on Monday (pdf) said it opposed H.R. 497, a measure to eliminate COVID-19 vaccine mandates for health care providers under certain federal health care programs. It said that Biden would veto the bill if Congress were to pass it.
Calls to End Emergency Powers
The statement of administration comes amid increasing calls from congressional lawmakers and lawmakers across the country to end the COVID-19 emergency powers. The administration policy statement itself was to signal opposition to two Republican-backed measures, H.R. 382 and H.J. Res. 7, seeking to immediately end the emergencies.
Lawmakers in Congress have refused the Biden administration’s request for billions more dollars to continue funding COVID-19 vaccines and testing.
Back in December 2022, about two-dozen Republican governors had called on the Biden administration to end (pdf) the COVID-19 emergency, because it places undue financial strain on the tax payer due to its expansion of Medicaid coverage.
In pushing against the Republican bill and joint resolution, the Biden administration argued on Monday that ending the emergency declarations suddenly “would have two highly significant impacts on our nation’s health system and government operations.” This includes disrupting the health care system and creating circumstances conducive to an influx of migrants in to the country from the southern border, it said.
The end of the PHE will also end the Title 42 policy at the border. The Biden administration said that while it has tried to terminate the policy, it currently remains in place due to court orders. Ending the PHE would “lift Title 42 immediately, and result in a substantial additional inflow of migrants at the Southwest border,” the Biden administration said.
Continue reading at Epoch Times
GLOBAL ISSUES;/
Really good
special thanks to Milan S for sending this to us:
Watch “”What’s Coming Is WORSE Than A Recession” – Elon Musk’s Last WARNING” on YouTube
| Milan Sabioncello |  | ||
| to me | |||
end
PAUL ALEXANDER/DR PANDA
Pilots dying in mid-air? “There’s a number of pilots out there who are fearful to come forward and speak”; Airline Pilot Suffers Heart Attack During Takeoff then Dies; American Eagle (Envoy)
Why? What do you think caused this? Planes could start dropping out of the skies! Pilot Greg Pearson share’s the story of his rapid onset atrial fibrillation after getting vaccinated against #COVID19.
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 30 |
‘The pilot of a Chicago flight bound for Columbus, Ohio, passed out suddenly after takeoff Saturday evening, prompting a co-pilot to make a return flight back to the airport. The pilot, who was a captain in training for American Airlines subsidiary Envoy Air, later died at the hospital, according to reports.’
While the cause of the pilot’s blackout has not been revealed, incidents like this were exactly what pilots who rallied against mandatory Covid vaccinations were trying to avoid.
Last December, American Airlines Captain Greg Pearson, who suffered atrial fibrillation after getting a work-mandated Covid-19 jab, warned his medical emergency could have occurred as he tried to land a plane.’
Does Pete Buttigieg know about this? Does he care?
Real America’s Voice (RAV) @RealAmVoice
“There’s a number of pilots out there who are fearful to come forward and speak” Pilot Greg Pearson share’s the story of his rapid onset atrial fibrillation after getting vaccinated against #COVID19. Get Real Newsbit.ly/gorav
end
BOOM! ‘It’s Time for the Scientific Community to Admit We Were Wrong About COVID and It Cost Lives’ by KEVIN BASS, MD/PHD STUDENT, MEDICAL SCHOOL (NEWSWEEK)
It is incredible that this was printed in NEWSWEEK & tide is turning; I read this & it was well written & I wanted to share; “I was wrong. We in the scientific community were wrong & we costed lives”
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 31 |
‘As a medical student and researcher, I staunchly supported the efforts of the public health authorities when it came to COVID-19. I believed that the authorities responded to the largest public health crisis of our lives with compassion, diligence, and scientific expertise. I was with them when they called for lockdowns, vaccines, and boosters.
I was wrong. We in the scientific community were wrong. And it cost lives.
I can see now that the scientific community from the CDC to the WHO to the FDA and their representatives, repeatedly overstated the evidence and misled the public about its own views and policies, including on natural vs. artificial immunity, school closures and disease transmission, aerosol spread, mask mandates, and vaccine effectiveness and safety, especially among the young. All of these were scientific mistakes at the time, not in hindsight. Amazingly, some of these obfuscations continue to the present day.
But perhaps more important than any individual error was how inherently flawed the overall approach of the scientific community was, and continues to be. It was flawed in a way that undermined its efficacy and resulted in thousands if not millions of preventable deaths.
What we did not properly appreciate is that preferences determine how scientific expertise is used, and that our preferences might be—indeed, our preferences were—very different from many of the people that we serve. We created policy based on our preferences, then justified it using data. And then we portrayed those opposing our efforts as misguided, ignorant, selfish, and evil.
We made science a team sport, and in so doing, we made it no longer science. It became us versus them, and “they” responded the only way anyone might expect them to: by resisting.
We excluded important parts of the population from policy development and castigated critics, which meant that we deployed a monolithic response across an exceptionally diverse nation, forged a society more fractured than ever, and exacerbated longstanding heath and economic disparities.
A students adjusts her facemask at St. Joseph Catholic School in La Puente, California on November 16, 2020, where pre-kindergarten to Second Grade students in need of special services returned to the classroom today for in-person instruction. – The campus is the second Catholic school in Los Angeles County to receive a waiver approval to reopen as the coronavirus pandemic rages on. The US surpassed 11 million coronavirus cases Sunday, adding one million new cases in less than a week, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP
Our emotional response and ingrained partisanship prevented us from seeing the full impact of our actions on the people we are supposed to serve. We systematically minimized the downsides of the interventions we imposed—imposed without the input, consent, and recognition of those forced to live with them. In so doing, we violated the autonomy of those who would be most negatively impacted by our policies: the poor, the working class, small business owners, Blacks and Latinos, and children. These populations were overlooked because they were made invisible to us by their systematic exclusion from the dominant, corporatized media machine that presumed omniscience.
Most of us did not speak up in support of alternative views, and many of us tried to suppress them. When strong scientific voices like world-renowned Stanford professors John Ioannidis, Jay Bhattacharya, and Scott Atlas, or University of California San Francisco professors Vinay Prasad and Monica Gandhi, sounded the alarm on behalf of vulnerable communities, they faced severe censure by relentless mobs of critics and detractors in the scientific community—often not on the basis of fact but solely on the basis of differences in scientific opinion.
When former President Trump pointed out the downsides of intervention, he was dismissed publicly as a buffoon. And when Dr. Antony Fauci opposed Trump and became the hero of the public health community, we gave him our support to do and say what he wanted, even when he was wrong.
Trump was not remotely perfect, nor were the academic critics of consensus policy. But the scorn that we laid on them was a disaster for public trust in the pandemic response. Our approach alienated large segments of the population from what should have been a national, collaborative project.
And we paid the price. The rage of the those marginalized by the expert class exploded onto and dominated social media. Lacking the scientific lexicon to express their disagreement, many dissidents turned to conspiracy theories and a cottage industry of scientific contortionists to make their case against the expert class consensus that dominated the pandemic mainstream. Labeling this speech “misinformation” and blaming it on “scientific illiteracy” and “ignorance,” the government conspired with Big Tech to aggressively suppress it, erasing the valid political concerns of the government’s opponents.
And this despite the fact that pandemic policy was created by a razor-thin sliver of American society who anointed themselves to preside over the working class—members of academia, government, medicine, journalism, tech, and public health, who are highly educated and privileged. From the comfort of their privilege, this elite prizes paternalism, as opposed to average Americans who laud self-reliance and whose daily lives routinely demand that they reckon with risk. That many of our leaders neglected to consider the lived experience of those across the class divide is unconscionable.
Incomprehensible to us due to this class divide, we severely judged lockdown critics as lazy, backwards, even evil. We dismissed as “grifters” those who represented their interests. We believed “misinformation” energized the ignorant, and we refused to accept that such people simply had a different, valid point of view.
We crafted policy for the people without consulting them. If our public health officials had led with less hubris, the course of the pandemic in the United States might have had a very different outcome, with far fewer lost lives.
Instead, we have witnessed a massive and ongoing loss of life in America due to distrust of vaccines and the healthcare system; a massive concentration in wealth by already wealthy elites; a rise in suicides and gun violence especially among the poor; a near-doubling of the rate of depression and anxiety disorders especially among the young; a catastrophic loss of educational attainment among already disadvantaged children; and among those most vulnerable, a massive loss of trust in healthcare, science, scientific authorities, and political leaders more broadly.
My motivation for writing this is simple: It’s clear to me that for public trust to be restored in science, scientists should publicly discuss what went right and what went wrong during the pandemic, and where we could have done better.
It’s OK to be wrong and admit where one was wrong and what one learned. That’s a central part of the way science works. Yet I fear that many are too entrenched in groupthink—and too afraid to publicly take responsibility—to do this.
Solving these problems in the long term requires a greater commitment to pluralism and tolerance in our institutions, including the inclusion of critical if unpopular voices.
Intellectual elitism, credentialism, and classism must end. Restoring trust in public health—and our democracy—depends on it.’
end
This is a must view: Dr Geert Vanden Bossche
Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche & Dr. Paul Alexander : i) COVID vaccine was NEVER needed ii) early treatment & prevention ONLY iii)immuno-senescenced elderly can be killed iv) kids have potent INNATE immune
COVID gene injection was never ever needed, STOP it now! we had early treatment in combination with isolation of sick & strong protections of high-risk; infectious variants can be virulent to elderly
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 30 |
Link:
The key issue remains the circulating infectious sub-variants and the capacity of the COVID gene injection (non-neutralizing) to drive variants and potentially virulent ones.
These idiots at Pfizer and Moderna and CDC and NIH and FDA do not understand what they have done. They have no clue about the evolutionary capacity of this virus to adapt and evolve to the population immune pressure that is incomplete and mounting. They do not understand that there is a complex interplay between the virus and the host immune system response and that you cannot discuss or study or understand each without the other. Not even elderly, no one, we should have touched no one with these COVID gene injections. Not one!
Video:
Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche discusses with Dr. Paul Elias Alexander why COVID vaccines were never needed, why they must be stopped. Why elderly could be killed if you vaccinate them as highly infectious variant could be virulent to them and why children must not be given these COVID injections
end
SPIKE Protein Detoxifier formulation to manage LONG COVID as well as the amount of COVID vaccine mRNA spike protein in your body & inhibit effects & blood vessel blockage, supporting T-cell activity
Spike protein post vaccine or virus is very toxic and can be debilitating and deadly; see also FLCCC details in my prior embedded substack
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 31 |
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter
Spike protein (due to the COVID vaccine or virus) is becoming increasingly concerning and people are begging for solutions. They are scared and in many instances distraught as to the spike circulating within them. As a result, a spike detoxifier is needed. This detoxifier can potentially help manage the amount of spike protein in your body (especially s…
end
Bill Gates at second 17 tells us the COVID gene injection vaccines (mRNA-DNA) do not work, have failed, did not work, never did, do not stop infection or stop variants etc.; what? after you berated
people to get it & shamed them and agreed with threatening people with force of law? GATES said in the lower video that the vaccines were terrific; you are to be investigated & dragged into court
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 31 |
Listen to the idiot Gates initially, the COVID vaccines are succeeding…“this is a great vaccine”:
VACCINE IMPACT
9-Year-Old Boy Dies 2 Weeks After Being Medically Kidnapped and Put Into Foster CareJanuary 30, 2023 1:25 pm Arizona authorities arrested Richard Blodgett for drug possession, and the state’s family police agency threw his son into foster care. Just two weeks later the boy was dead. The story reminded me of another parent with a similar history of addiction. Back in the 1960s and 1970s, long before my family moved to Alexandria, Virginia, this addict raised her children in our neighborhood. It happened to her as it does to so many others. It started with prescription opioid painkillers. She got hooked. Unlike Blodgett, this addict got hooked on booze, too. “I liked alcohol, it made me feel warm,” she would later say. “And I loved pills. They took away my tension and my pain.” On top of that, this addict had serious mental health issues. She was what the tabloids would have called a “druggie mom” – if she were poor, and especially if she were poor and nonwhite. Yet during all this time, no one took away her children. She was never even investigated. And in 1974, when her husband suddenly got a new job and they had to move to D.C., no one from a family police agency ever knocked at the door of the family’s new address: 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. On the contrary: Betty Ford was hailed as a hero.Read More.. … |
VACCINE INJURY/
SLAY NEWS//
| The latest reports from Slay NewsTop MIT Professor Warns: mRNA Shots Cause ‘Unprecedented Harm & Deaths of Young People, Children’A renowned professor from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has spoken out to raise the alarm about mRNA shots.READ MOREJay Leno Faces Backlash for Joking about Jeremy Renner’s AccidentJay Leno is facing a major backlash for joking about Hollywood star Jeremy Renner, who was severely injured in a snowplow accident earlier this month. As Slay News reported, Leno was in another automotive accident when he was involved in a motorcycle crash earlier this month. Last week, when Leno was asked about his recovery from the burns he suffered …READ MORETrump Praises Obama’s ‘You Lie’ Heckler: ‘That Voice Was So Beautiful’President Donald Trump has praised Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) for heckling Barack Obama’s “lie” in Congress.READ MORECNN Host Throws Adam Schiff’s False Claims Back in His Face on Live TVCNN host Dana Bash called Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) out for lying to the American people about President Donald Trump and threw his false claims back in his face on live TV.READ MORELori Lightfoot Dances in Streets as Violent Crime Soars in ChicagoChicago’s Democrat Mayor Lori Lightfoot is being likened to the infamous Roman emperor Nero after she was filmed dancing in the streets while violent crime soars and businesses flee the city.READ MOREMaxine Waters Trashes Conservatives, Lauren Boebert Sets Her StraightRepublican Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) has set Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) straight after the Democrat congresswoman trashed conservatives as “domestic terrorists” on MSNBC.READ MORENew IRS Tax Rules Are a ‘Double Whammy’ for Families, Experts WarnThe new tax rules implemented by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) could place a strain on some families hoping for an expanded child tax credit, experts are warning.READ MORELeBron James Suffers Epic Meltdown, Throws Temper Tantrum during Huge LossLos Angeles Lakers star LeBron James suffered an epic meltdown when a foul call didn’t go his way.READ MOREUtah Bans Sex-Change Surgeries and Transgender Treatments for ChildrenUtah has officially banned sex-change surgeries and transgender treatments for children across the state.READ MORETrump: ‘Every Day Is April Fools’ Day’ in Biden’s AmericaPresident Donald Trump has dealt a knockout blow to Democrat President Joe Biden while delivering his campaign kickoff speech.READ MOREEx-Clinton Advisor: Classified Docs Scandal Has Doomed Biden for 2024Former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris has declared that Democrat President Joe Biden’s hopes for running for re-election in 2024 have been doomed by his mounting classified documents scandal.READ MOREBill Gates Squirms While Getting Grilled over Epstein RelationshipMicrosoft co-founder Bill Gates squirmed uncomfortably during a new interview where he was grilled over his relationship with deceased sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.READ MORETed Cruz Calls on FBI to Search Hunter Biden’s Home for Classified DocumentsRepublican Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has called on the FBI to search Hunter Biden’s home and office for any possible classified documents.READ MORE |
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS/TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0827 DOWN .0023
USA/ YEN 130.43 UP 0.057/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2306 DOWN 0.0044
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 13.65 PTS OR .42%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 227.40 PTS OR 1.03%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.18% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED (XCEPT ITALY)
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED (EXACTLY ITALY)
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 227.40 PTS OR 1.03%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.65 PTS OR .42%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .18%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 106.29 PTS OR 0.39%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1906.55
silver:$23.17
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 102.29 UP 21 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY’s close.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.176% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.488% UP 0 AND 9/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.311%// DOWN 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.258 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.279% DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0864 UP 0.0014 or 14 basis points//
USA/Japan: 130.11 DOWN 0.365 OR YEN UP 37 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2319 DOWN.0031 OR 31BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0048 OR 48 BASIS pts to 1.3607
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.7547) AT LUNAR HOLIDAY
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.7573
TURKISH LIRA: 18.81 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.488…VERY DANGEREOUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.518% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.647 DOWN 1 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 101.94 DOWN 15 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 11.29 PTS OR 0.14%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 4.75 POINTS OR 0.09%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 3.14 PTS OR 0.02%
Spain IBEX DOWN 13.60 POINTS OR 0.15%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 269.67 PTS OR 1.02%
WTI Oil price 78.88 12: EST
Brent Oil: 85.22 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 69.82/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 59/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.279
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.3500 up 1 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0869 UP .0019 OR 19 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2324 DOWN .0026 or 26 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.359% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 130.14 DOWN 0.333////YEN UP 33 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3304 DOWN .0080 (CDN dollar, UP 80 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 79.04
Brent OIL: 85,54
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS pts to 3.4900%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS PTS to 3.661%
USA dollar index:101.87 DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.82
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 69.82 UP 0 AND 59/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 368,95 PTS OR 1.09%
NASDAQ 100 UP 189.54 PTS OR 1.59%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.42 DOWN 0.52 PTS (2.61)%
GLD: $179.41 UP 0.65 OR 0.36%
SLV/ $21.83 UP .17 OR 0.78%
end)
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bullion Best January In Decades; Yield Curve Crashes To Record Inversion
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 04:00 PM
January saw the return of the “QE trade”… or more appropriately, a de-hawking of The Fed as the narrative rapidly shifted from hyped-inflation and growth scares to ‘soft landing’ and Fed-Pause/Pivot… and everything’s awesome.
Overall January saw macro surprise data flat in January as ‘soft’ survey data tumbled (along with weaker ‘hard’ industrial data) but offset by a number of questionably strong labor market indications…
Source: Bloomberg
However, despite the narrative shift, January saw rate expectations barely budge… terminal rate dropped around 4bps while rate-cut exp fell 3bps…
Source: Bloomberg
The market is locked-and-loaded for a 25bps hike tomorrow by The Fed, it also prices an 83% chance of a 25bps hike in March and 42% odds of a 25bps hike in April…
Source: Bloomberg
But that never stopped stocks from fully embracing the dovish hope, with Nasdaq soaring over 10% in January. The Dow lagged with a meager 2.4% return…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks melted up into today’s month-end close (on a massive MOC buy), erasing all of yesterday’s selling pressure from the open…
Nasdaq soared to its best January since 2001…
Source: Bloomberg
Who could have seen that coming!!??
The January shift in the growth and inflation outlooks have helped support a laggards-to-leaders (dash for trash) trade within the S&P 500…
At the stock level, 9 of the 10 best performing stocks in January also underperformed the S&P 500 over the last 12 months – also highlighting a laggard-to-leaders trade.
And if you needed more evidence of the ‘quality’ of the rally, “most shorted” stocks soared 19% in January – the biggest monthly short squeeze since January 2021 – which marked the record high in stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
And all that exuberance pushed financial conditions to their loosest since June (when Fed Funds were 350bps lower)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the 3rd month of ‘easing’ financial conditions in the last four, after financial conditions reached their tightest since 2016…
Source: Bloomberg
Is that the “unwarranted easing” that The Fed warned about in its latest Minutes?
Treasury yields ended the month of January significantly lower with the short-end lagging (2Y -22bps) and the belly outperforming (5Y -37bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the second biggest monthly drop in the 5Y yield since March 2020 (the peak of Fed intervention amid the COVID lockdowns)…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve collapsed further in January with Fed Chair Powell’s favorite signals (3m spot – 18m fwd 3m bill yield spread) crashing to its most inverted ever right as the dot-com boom busted…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar fell for the 4th straight month in January, with the greenback sparking a ‘death cross’…
Source: Bloomberg
…with one of the largest 3mo declines in the world’s reserve currency in history…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged for the 3rd straight month in a row, back above $1900 (to its highest since April 2022 and notably above the 2011 highs)…
Source: Bloomberg
…up 18%, its best such move since August 2011…
Source: Bloomberg
Bear in mind that gold has dramatically decoupled from the resurgence in real yields…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin saw its best start to a year since 2013, up almost 40% in January…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin is back above $23,000, erasing all the losses from the FTX FUD, now testing back to the Terra-LUNA / 3AC / Voyager collapse chaos…
Source: Bloomberg
Solana (hammered hard during the FTX debacle) was the massive outperformer though in crypto and we note that Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum (which still had a stellar 33% gain on the month)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices had a quiet January ending marginally lower (WTI rangebound between $78 and $82), which followed a quiet December (which ended practically unchanged in a narrow range)…
January saw the biggest drop in NatGas prices since January 2001, with Henry Hub crashing to its lowest since April 2021, back below $3.00
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, circling back to the start, the last time the Nasdaq soared as much as this in January, it didn’t end well…
Source: Bloomberg
This time is obviously different though… because inflation remains extremely high, govt debt is exponentially higher, and The Fed balance sheet remains ridiculously high.
END
EARLY MORNING TRADING/
EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//
ii) USA DATA
This will cause an increase in good pricing due to higher costs.
(zerohedge)
US Employment Cost Index Surges At Record 5.07% YoY
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 08:35 AM
With The Fed huddling in The Eccles Building and traders hyper-focused on any signs of ‘peak inflation’ (because that means ‘peak Fed tightness’), this morning’s Q4 US employment costs index rose 1.0% QoQ (slightly cooler than the +1.1% expected and down from the +1.2% QoQ in Q3)…
Source: Bloomberg
Labor costs have risen at least 1% for six straight quarters, extending what was already a record streak in data back to 1996.
As a reminder, Fed Chair Powell explicitly mentioned this signal, and while the quarterly changes are trending in the right direction, we note that the YoY rate of change rose to a new record 5.07%.
The ECI is notable in part because other recent wage data (the average hourly earnings data in the monthly payroll report) have pointed to a deceleration in wage growth.
The ECI could provide confirmatory or contradictory evidence of this recent trend for the wage story.— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 31, 2023
Given the record rise in ECI YoY, we are not sure this is what The Fed wants to see…
END
Home price gains slowed for the 5th straight month in the uSA.. San Francisco home prices decline. The economy is in a recession
(zerohedge)
San Francisco Home Prices Decline YoY As US Home Price Gains Slowed For The 5th Straight Month
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 09:07 AM
Case-Shiller’s latest data (for November) showed US home price acceleration continued to slow (-0.54% MoM – slightly stronger than expected) for the 5th straight month.
Source: Bloomberg
This slowed the annual growth in the 20-City Composite index to 6.77% YoY – its slowest since Sept 2020.
“As the Federal Reserve moves interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.
“Economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, would also constrain potential buyers. Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”
More broadly, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price index rose 7.69% YoY in Nov., smallest gain since Sept. 2020, after rising 9.23% in prior month
Every one of the major cities saw home prices decline MoM…
Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities surveyed but we note that San Francisco home prices are now lower (-1.57%) year-over-year…
That is the largest price drop since at least 2012
end
Chicago area PMI suffers longest contraction streak since Lehman
(zerohedge)
Chicago PMI Suffers Longest ‘Contraction’ Streak Since Lehman
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 09:53 AM
After a surprisingly strong rebound in December, Chicago PMI fell back in January to 44.3 (below expectations of 45.0), below ’50’ for the 5th straight month…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the longest streak of prints in ‘contraction’ since the Great Financial Crisis.
Under the hood, the business barometer fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
- New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
- Production fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
- Order backlogs fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction
- Number of components rising vs last month: 3
This continues a trend of ‘soft’ survey data disappointing notably.
end
Confidence (sentiment) slides
(zerohedge)
Conference Board Confidence Slides In January, Inflation Expectations Rebounded
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 10:07 AM
Analysts expected The Conference Board’s Confidence survey to improve marginally in January with the present situation holding remarkably strong given the chaos seen everywhere else in the US economy. The actual print disappointed expectations (107.1 vs 109.0 exp), hurt by a slip in Expectations (from 83.4 to 77.8) as Present Situation rose (from 147.4 to 150.0). The Present Situation is at the highest since April 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
The Conference Board’s measure of labor market tightness improved for the second month in a row (more jobs plentiful vs hard to get) in January…
Source: Bloomberg
The Conference Board’s sentiment remains notably decoupled from UMich’s sentiment measure…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, The Conference Board’s gauge of one-year inflation expectations rebounded from its lowest since August 2021 (from 6.6% to 6.8%…
Source: Bloomberg
That’s not what Mr.Powell wants to see.
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Tech layoffs continue to accelerate
(zerohedge)
Tech Layoffs Accelerate Despite Nasdaq’s Best Start To Year Since 2001
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Technology-heavy Nasdaq is experiencing one of its best months in two decades despite accelerating mass job cuts at tech firms and increasing risk of recession.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is up 10% so far this month, on track for its best January performance since 2001, when it recorded a 12% gain.
Stocks are flying ahead of the Wednesday FOMC meeting. What could derail optimism is Fed Chair Powell re-emphasizing that the rate hike cycle isn’t over, which would force financial conditions to retighten.
Many traders today weren’t around for the Dot Com bust. As soon as February 2001 hit, Nasdaq resumed its tumble and plunged nearly 30% through the rest of the year.
Another repeat of early 2001 could be in the cards if the Fed maintains its uber-hawkishness, earning season disappoints, and recession risks continue to flourish.
One ominous sign of financial stress among tech firms is the accelerating headcount reduction to start the year, a move to improve profitability amid recession threats.
So far this month, big tech firms, including Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Salesforce, IBM, and others, have laid off more than 52,000 jobs, according to Bloomberg data.
Additional jobs data from Layoffs.fyi shows 229 tech firms (big and small) laid off a total of 68,502 employees this month. Last year, 1,040 tech companies fired 160,000 employees.
What’s evident is that tech firms are under pressure, but shares in companies are surging, leaving some to believe the latest up move could be a bear market rally.
END
Court rejects J and J’s bankruptcy strategy for the thousands of baby powder lawsuits
(Phillips/EpochTimes)
Court Rejects Johnson & Johnson Bankruptcy Strategy For 1000s Of Baby-Powder Lawsuits
MONDAY, JAN 30, 2023 – 06:20 PM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,
A U.S. court on Monday rejected pharmaceutical company Johnson & Johnson’s bankruptcy strategy to resolve billions of dollars in lawsuits that alleged the firm’s talc products cause cancer.
A decision handed down by the U.S. Third Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia dismissed a Chapter 11 petition filed by a recently created J&J subsidiary LTL Management in October to address more than 38,000 lawsuits from plaintiffs alleging the company’s baby powder and other talc products caused cancer.
Before the bankruptcy filing, J&J faced costs from $3.5 billion in verdicts and settlements, including one in which 22 women were eventually awarded a judgment of more than $2 billion, according to court records.
“Applied here, while LTL faces substantial future talc liability, its funding backstop plainly mitigates any financial distress foreseen on its petition date,” wrote a three-judge panel on Monday.
They noted that “good intentions” like protecting the “J&J brand or comprehensively resolve litigation … do not suffice alone,” they wrote.
A spokesperson for the company, which manufactures Tylenol as well as a widely used COVID-19 vaccine, said J&J will appeal the decision. The spokesperson maintained that the company’s talc products are safe and don’t cause cancer.
“As we have said from the beginning of this process, resolving this matter as quickly and efficiently as possible is in the best interests of claimants and all stakeholders,” J&J spokeswoman Allison Fennell told news outlets in response to Monday’s ruling.
“We continue to stand behind the safety of Johnson’s Baby Powder, which is safe, does not contain asbestos, and does not cause cancer.”
The decision throws into doubt J&J’s long-planned strategy for disposing of talc litigation after it lost a bid to reverse a watershed verdict that eventually awarded more than $2 billion to 22 women who blamed their ovarian cancer on baby powder and other talc products.
Bottles of Johnson & Johnson baby powder line a drugstore shelf in New York, on Oct. 15, 2015. (Lucas Jackson/Reuters)
Attorneys for people who claim J&J’s products caused their cancers welcomed Monday’s ruling.
“The Third Circuit’s decision is a point-by-point rejection of J&J’s attempt to pervert the bankruptcy system and trample the constitutional right to a jury trial of all Americans harmed by deadly products,” Jon Ruckdeschel, a lawyer representing victims of mesothelioma, said in a statement to the Financial Times.
“Bankruptcy courts are for honest companies in financial distress, not billionaire mega-corporations like J&J, 3M, and Koch Industries that seek to close courthouse doors to their victims.”
Last September, attorneys representing some 7,000 talc personal-injury claimants wrote (pdf) that “bankruptcy court relied on unsupported speculation and improper evidence” and “used unfounded estimates.”
A legal scholar with the University of Richmond told the paper that J&J will now have to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. “The only prospect left for J&J is an appeal to the Supreme Court,” Carl Tobias said, “which grants review in a minuscule percentage of appeals.”
A jury in Missouri ordered the New Jersey-based company to pay some $4.7 billion in damages to dozens of women who asserted their cancer was caused by the company’s talc products. The company appealed to cut the payout in half, but it has still paid more than $2 billion in damages.
More than 1,500 talc lawsuits have been dismissed without J&J having to pay anything, and the majority of cases that have gone to trial have resulted in defense verdicts, mistrials, or judgments for the company on appeal, according to the J&J subsidiary’s court filings.
Since the lawsuits prevailed, J&J has stopped selling its talc baby powder in the United States and Canada. It will phase out sales of those products around the world in 2023.
As of Monday’s close, J&J’s stock price was down nearly 4 percent on extremely high volume…
…it’s largest drop since June 2020.
end
CHICAGO
Anthrapully/EpochTimes
Chicago Crime Rises 61% In 2023, Violent Offenses Spike While Governor Insists Crime “Coming Down”
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,
The crime rate in Chicago has spiked by 61 percent in the first three weeks of 2023, with almost all crime segments registering an increase, with data coming at a time when the state’s governor insists that crime in the city is decreasing.
In the first 22 days of this year, the Chicago Police Department received 4,844 complaints related to crime, up 61 percent compared to the 3,013 complaints received in 2022, reveals data (pdf) from the department. This is also 97 percent higher than from the same period in 2021 and 81 percent higher than in 2020.
The biggest increase in crime in the past year was in motor vehicle theft, which rose by 165 percent year to date until Jan. 22, 2023, when compared to the year-ago period.
Aggravated battery jumped 31 percent, robbery 26 percent, theft, 24 percent, criminal sexual assault 12 percent, and burglary 11 percent. Murder fell by 9 percent, while shooting incidents declined 1 percent.
The data come as Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker has been trying to paint a positive picture of Chicago’s crime incidents.
“Crime is coming down gradually in the city and across the state. It’s going to take a little while. These things don’t come down immediately. But it’s getting better,” he said in an interview with CNBC this month.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot recently attracted criticism after a mayoral debate on Jan. 9 during which she suggested that street vendors “not use money, if at all possible, using other forms of transactions to take care of themselves” so as to ensure that their money is safe.
“To combat crime in Chicago, Mayor @LoriLightfoot says ‘not use money, if at all possible, (use) other forms of transactions to carry…’ What’s next? Laws demanding ‘cash control’?” conservative talk radio host Larry Elder said in a tweet on Jan. 23.
Businesses and Citizens Looking to Exit City
The high crime rate in Chicago is affecting businesses operating in the city, with some of them choosing to leave. In October 2022, Tyson Foods, for example, announced plans to relocate staffers from the Chicago area and South Dakota to Arkansas. In May, Boeing had announced plans to shift its headquarters out of Chicago.
In a speech to the Economic Club of Chicago in September, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski revealed that he has received multiple offers from governors and mayors from other states who want him to shift the company’s headquarters from Chicago.
“While it may wound our civic pride to hear it, there is a general sense out there that our city is in crisis,” Kempczinski said.
“We have violent crime that’s happening in our restaurants … We’re seeing homelessness issues in our restaurants. We’re having drug overdoses that are happening in our restaurants.”
A survey published this month by nonprofit AARP found that 88 percent of Chicago voters over 50 years of age have considered leaving the city in the past year. They wanted to move to a community with a lower crime rate.
Among respondents, 89 percent said that a candidate’s position on violence and crime is “very important” when it comes to deciding the next mayor.
Cashless Bail
One of the main reasons contributing to ongoing crime is a lax approach to enforcing the law while approving measures that cut down severity of punishments related to lawlessness.
A controversial law, the SAFE-T Act, was set to go into effect on Jan. 1, 2023, in Illinois. But on Dec. 31, the state supreme court placed on hold a portion of the bill that would have eliminated cash bail for certain crimes.
Last month, a Kankakee County judge had ruled that cashless bail violated Illinois’ constitution and couldn’t be applied in counties where lawsuits have been filed to block it.
Republican leaders had earlier raised alarm bells about the SAFE-T act, warning that it would result in a rapid rise in crime in Illinois, including Chicago. The city frequently registers over 700 homicides annually.
State Senator John Curran, a Republican, pointed out that SAFE-T’s cashless bail raises the risk of releasing dangerous criminals back into the streets. Multiple law enforcement officials had also warned about the cashless bail provision.
According to real estate platform Property Club, Chicago is ranked number six on the list of most dangerous cities in the United States.
end
3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//GLOBAL ISSUES//DERIVATIVES
USA COVID//
SWAMP STORIES
Biden Family Corruption, COVID Origins, Weaponized Government, And Border Crisis: House GOP Kicks Off Investigations
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 12:03 PM
Newly empowered House Republicans are kicking off their long-planned investigations into a wide variety of issues, beginning with hearings on the US-Mexico border crisis, the origins of Covid-19, and pandemic relief programs.
The House Judiciary Committee’s first meeting of the new Congress, led by Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH), will be “The Biden Border Crisis: Part I.”
Then, the House Energy and Commerce investigations subcommittee will hold a hearing titled: “Challenges and Opportunities to Investigating the Origins of Pandemics and Other Biological Events,” as part of its probe into the origins of Covid-19.
Meanwhile, the House Oversight and Accountability Committee, led by James Comer (R-KY) will kick off a hearing on waste, fraud and abuse related to federal pandemic spending, The Hill reports.
“I don’t think history will be kind to the PPP loan program,” said Comer during a Monday appearance at a National Press Club event, referring to the program that provided businesses with forgivable loans. “I think it’ll be eventually viewed in the same manner that the big bank bailouts were when people find out where a lot of that money was going.”
Republicans had been plotting extensive investigations into the Biden administration for more than a year before the midterm elections. Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), in preparation for taking the House majority, organized GOP members into “task forces” to come up with oversight and legislative priorities. Republican members of committees started investigations last year when they were in the minority.
Republicans now have control over committee hearing topics, a better chance of getting answers from administration officials, and are armed with subpoena power to compel testimony and documents — though no committee has used it yet.
Next week, the Oversight panel is set to hold a hearing on the U.S.-Mexico border and a hearing with former Twitter employees about the platform’s suppression of the New York Post’s story on the Hunter Biden hard drive in 2020. -The Hill
Speaking of the Bidens, the Oversight panel is also conducting an ‘extensive probe’ into the business dealings of President Biden’s family which will focus on Hunter Biden.
Republicans on the House Oversight, Judiciary and Intelligence committees have also sought information related to President Biden’s mishandling of classified information, while the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees are going to be investigating the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.
And in what will hopefully take the spotlight – House Republicans have formed the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government under the House Judiciary Committee, in response to those who wanted a “Church-style” committee to investigate how the DOJ and intelligence agencies were used in a character-assassination plot against former President Trump and others.
END
What a BOZO: Biden administration releases over 1300 criminal illegal immigrant last month
(Stieber/EpochTimes)
Biden Administration Releases Over 1,300 Criminal Illegal Immigrants In 1 Month
TUESDAY, JAN 31, 2023 – 01:05 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
President Joe Biden’s administration released more than 1,300 criminal illegal aliens in a single month, according to recently disclosed statistics.
Immigration officials released 521 convicted criminal aliens and 795 with pending criminal charges in December 2022, per data released by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The number of convicted criminal aliens and those with pending charges released was up by 58 percent from the month prior and 48 percent from October 2022.
Convicted criminals are defined as people who violate immigration law and have a criminal conviction at the time they’re taken into custody by ICE. The exact convictions aren’t detailed.
Other immigrants have pending criminal charges at the time of arrest.
Most of the releases stemmed from orders of recognizance, or an interim determination that the alien in question is “not a detention priority.”
Others were under orders of supervision, were released due to a field office being “unable to obtain a travel document,” or were put on parole. The latter is a case-by-case determination for “urgent humanitarian reasons or significant public benefit” enabled by federal law.
“The law explicitly requires that those who cross the border illegally be detained, but the Biden administration clearly doesn’t want to detain or deport anyone. So it isn’t surprising that they are releasing criminal aliens as well,” Ron Kovach, press secretary at the Federation for American Immigration Reform, told The Epoch Times via email. “Public safety and the rule of law are under attack to advance their radical open borders agenda.”
Immigration officers told The Washington Times, which first reported on the data, that the releases stemmed from wanting to clear out room in preparation for the end of Title 42, a public health order that gives authorities the ability to quickly expel some illegal immigrants due to concerns that they may have COVID-19.
ICE didn’t dispute the report but declined to comment.
The Supreme Court, in late December 2022, ordered the administration to keep Title 42 in place.
Authorities also released more than 28,000 immigrants in December 2022 who violated immigration law but didn’t have a criminal conviction or any pending charges beyond the immigration law violation.
Another 203 convicted criminals were bonded out, or given bond by a judge or a DHS official after a court hearing. Another 91 were bonded out with pending criminal charges. And another 1,414 were bonded out with no convictions or pending charges.
Early statistics from January indicated the numbers might decline from the December 2022 levels.
The numbers come after the termination of enforcement proceedings against tens of thousands of illegal immigrants because authorities failed to provide documents telling the immigrants to appear in court.
“What caused this substantial spike in incidences of DHS officials not filing an NTA after you took office and, consequently, tens of thousands of immigration cases against illegal aliens being dismissed because of DHS’s [Department of Homeland Security’s] failure to file paperwork?” a group of senators wrote (pdf) to Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, a Biden appointee.
Illegal immigrant apprehensions and releases have skyrocketed since President Joe Biden took office and dramatically remade the U.S. immigration system to make it easier for illegal immigrants to enter and remain in the country.
Under federal law, U.S. authorities are supposed to hold illegal immigrants until their cases are resolved—many illegal aliens claim asylum, but the claims are ultimately rejected after several years—but authorities have said that they don’t have enough space to hold all of those whose cases are awaiting resolution. Federal officials have been using a program called alternatives to detention to release hundreds of thousands of aliens but have lost track of many of them.
Read more here…
end
DOJ Is ‘Boxed In’ In Handling Of Biden, Trump Document Probes: Experts
e Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Department of Justice and the FBI may have little room to move in their handling of the Biden classified documents case, according to experts and GOP figures, who were skeptical of the agencies’ ability to recapture the confidence of a sizeable segment of the population who had lost trust in them.
With the appointment of special counsel Robert Hur to investigate the revelations that Biden kept classified documents in various locations including his Delaware home, the spotlight has also turned brighter on the treatment of former president Donald Trump by the U.S. government’s justice apparatus over Trump’s possession of classified documents, the experts said.
“The American people have lost trust in Joe Biden’s corrupt DOJ and FBI after witnessing these agencies fully weaponized against Joe Biden’s number one political enemy by raiding Donald Trump’s house, but continue to cover up for the Biden Crime family,” Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) a member of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, told The Epoch Times.
The alleged cover-up Stefanik was referring to is the yearslong investigations into Hunter Biden by the DOJ that have reportedly yielded “voluminous evidence,” but produced neither indictments nor dismissals by the federal agency.
As such, it will be difficult for the DOJ to credibly prosecute Trump while exonerating Biden for similar actions, yet prosecuting both Biden and Trump would be terrible and painful for the country, the expert said.
On the other hand, finding both men innocent of an actual crime would deal a big blow to the DOJ and the FBI, tending to suggest that the treatment of Trump was just a political stunt by overly-partisan federal law enforcement agencies, they said.
And each of the experts couldn’t conceive of investigations that would find Biden guilty of a crime, yet Trump innocent.
Justice ‘Boxed In’
“I think the framing of the [justice] establishment being boxed in is right,” Ilya Shapiro, a senior fellow and director of constitutional studies at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, told The Epoch Times.
“The reason that [U.S. Attorney General Merrick] Garland appointed a special prosecutor so quickly, was because it was readily apparent that given that he called for one with Trump, he had to with Biden,” added Shapiro.
In November, Garland appointed former career Justice Department prosecutor and former chief prosecutor for the special court in The Hague, Jack Smith, as special counsel in the investigation surrounding Trump’s handling of classified documents.
Shapiro said that while the outcomes of the two cases won’t be exactly similar, he doubts it will result in a conviction for either Trump or Biden.
“Whatever that outcome is, it’s not going to be both of them sitting in the federal penitentiary,” said Shapiro.
“I don’t know if Biden is going to pardon Trump and then self-pardon? We had that debate over the self-pardoning power two years ago. Is that going to be a thing again? Or is there going to be some sort of slap on the wrist for both of them and fine of several tens of thousands of dollars? I don’t know. But I do think that the cases are going to run in parallel,” he added.
A Lose-Lose Situation
But even the appointment of a special prosecutor meant to quell distrust in the case of Biden raises more questions now than it does settle doubt about the fairmindedness of the DOJ, according to Paul Kamenar, chief counsel of the National Legal and Policy Center (NLPC), a conservative watchdog group.
“While it appears that Special Counsel Robert Hur has the necessary credentials to be appointed by Merrick Garland, NLPC is seeking documents through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) on the vetting process that was used to ensure his impartiality,” Kamenar told The Epoch Times.
The FOIA request from NLPC asked the DOJ to provide a release of all documents relating to the vetting of Robert Hur prior to the announcement of his appointment including any information regarding any conflicts of interest that Hur may have had in the case.
Under the federal Code of Regulation, NLPC requested the documents be produced in 10 days as a “matter of widespread and exceptional media interest in which there exist possible questions about the government’s integrity that affect public confidence.”
Former congressman Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) told The Epoch Times that as a former prosecutor, he thinks that the only way for people to really evaluate potential bias by either a Trump or Biden prosecutor is to look at their work product once the investigations are complete, which means waiting both lengthy investigations to finish.
“Equal justice for all means that no matter your wealth, social status, or political power, the Department of Justice should treat every suspect and defendant the same,” said Brooks.
“I pray the Department of Justice will do that in this matter. Evaluate the evidence and turn a blind eye to the politics,” he added.
The waiting game for the work to be completed is likely to exact a toll on the DOJ and FBI.
Read more here…
end
This is a must view!!
Matt Clark on Twitter: “HOLY SHIT!! Biden documents scandal includes 1850 Boxes, enough to fill a tractor trailer, plus 415 GB of electronic records! The Senate Intelligence Committee is demanding Biden turn these documents over, but they are refusing to do so!! https://t.co/ifLRnsWEan” / Twitter
| Robert Hryniak | 9:17 AM (7 minutes ago) | | |
| to | |||
Surprise surprise … even a thieving scoundrel wants records
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report January 31, 2023 Issue 6938Independent View of the NewsFed’s Interest-Rate Strategy in 2023 Hinges on How Quickly Rate Increases Slow Economy Moderating the pace of rate rises would give the Fed more time to study the effects of its moves By Nick Timiraos There’s broad agreement the Fed’s willingness to tell markets what they’re doing or planning to do has shortened the transmission of policy. They influence financial conditions much faster. But there’s disagreement over how long it takes for that to influence the real economy… Some argue the pandemic created distortions that may have increased the time it takes for rate rises to slow the economy. Consider construction. Permits have fallen, but lots of units are still being built due to supply chain-delays and because there’s more apartment building… https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-quickly-rate-increases-slow-the-economy-could-shape-2023-fed-policy-11675055081 @zerohedge: Trust the Dallas Fed to publish redpilled respondents: “Current federal policies are killing small businesses. From diesel prices to shortages, everything costs so much more. ” And some more: “The biggest issues facing our company are increased regulations and contact from federal, state and local entities regarding a variety of topics. Often it feels as a small business that the government does not want us to succeed.” And even more: “Mexico is gaining more and more business in the U.S. due to not having to pay Section 232 tariffs, whereas U.S. domestic extruders are paying the tariff via our raw aluminum or billet purchases.”… “We hope not to need to do another round of raises midyear. Since our employees are blue-collar workers, inflation hits them particularly hard, and they are more willing to look for another job for a 10–15 percent pay increase” – Dallas Fed respondent Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2023/2301 @Mayhem4Markets: NASDAQ has best January performance since 2001 (so far). I wonder what happened next that year? @Mayhem4Markets: On average over $1 trillion worth of SPX (not SPY) options are trading daily. Near a record high. https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1619908815411093504 For months, the usual suspects have excitedly awaited the February 1 FOMC Meeting because they expected the Fed to reduce its rate hike to 25bps and articulate a dovish message that ‘the pivot’ was nigh. Unfortunately for day traders and short-term traders, WSJ Fed Whisperer Nick Timoraos on Sunday night and on Monday, indicated that Fed officials are not as jiggy on inflation and ‘the pivot’ as bulls are. So, ESHs declined sharply from the opening on Sunday night until 6:32 ET. The usual rally for the NYSE opening then began. The rally was moderate but measured until the NYSE open. The usual suspects then incontinently bought ESHs and stocks. ESHs soared to 4078,00 at 10:06 ET, a 36-handle rally from the daily low. But alas, after the dumb money rally, discerning traders dumped stuff. ESHs methodically stair-stepped down to a daily low of 4035.50 by 14:52 ET. The pre-last hour rally then began. ESHs spiked 9 handles higher by 15:03 ET, but they quickly sank to new lows. A bottom developed at 15:30 ET. Trapped longs needed to manipulate stuff higher to embellish their marks. ESHs bounced 9 handles in 7 minutes. But ESHs hit a new low before a small rally at the close. Positive aspects of previous session Commodities declined Negative aspects of previous session Nickie T killed stocks, particularly Fangs; the NY Fang+ Index sank 3.41% The Street, notably small traders, is massively long Bonds declined moderately Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the Fed using Nickie T to diminish dovish expectations? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4032.39 Previous session High/Low: 4063.85; 4015.55 Pentagon top brass want to send F-16 FIGHTER JETS to Ukraine in bid to crush Putin (The WH says no.) https://t.co/ICjClHRr9u FDA advisers vote to simplify COVID vaccines, retire original “monovalent” shots https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-fda-advisers-vote-to-simplify-retire-monovalent-shots/ @DrEliDavid: “We published clinical data for the original vaccine showing it’s safe and effective. It all ended up being lies. What should we do?” – “Easy, use only the new version. We haven’t done any clinical trials and have no data about it. So, nobody can say we’re lying.” GOP @RepThomasMassie: Vaccinated MIT professor calls for immediately halting all mRNA vaccines. “I think there is no other ethical or scientific choice… This is clearly the most failing product in the history of medical products both in terms of efficacy and safety.” https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1620030137470431232?s=02 @MichaelPSenger: COVID will be better remembered not for the unprecedented lengths to which governments went to wage war on a respiratory virus, but for the unprecedented lengths to which governments went to wage war on their own people. @backtolife_2023: I Edited Human DNA at Home With a DIY CRISPR Kit – Genetic engineering using CRISPR from… home might seem futuristic, but you can do it right now. https://t.co/xspW9Elvuv U.S. arms left in Afghanistan are turning up in a different conflict – Arming militants in the disputed South Asian region of Kashmir in what experts say could be just the start of the weapons’ global journey… https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-arms-left-in-afghanistan-are-turning-up-in-a-different-conflict/ar-AA16SZVm Fed Funds Borrowing Leaps to New High as Banks Scramble for Cash – BBG 14:05 ETTrading Volume in federal funds rises to $120 billionJump suggests banks are in need of funding as deposits leaveThe highest level since at least 2016, when the central banks overhauled publication of the data. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-funds-borrowing-leaps-to-new-high-as-banks-scramble-for-cash-1.1876956 Once upon a time, girls & boys, the accepted definition of the ‘natural interest rate’ was the rate at which savers and borrowers were at equilibrium. Today – Nickie T thwarted bulls on Monday. The usual suspects will try to affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside abetted by bullish seasonal tendencies: January performance gaming, the rally into an FOMC Meeting, and a rebound in Fangs for looming earnings after their tumble on Monday. ESHs are +7.50 at 21:00 ET for the expected Turnaround Tuesday and January performance gaming. Expected economic data: Q4 Employment Cost Index 1.1%; Nov FHFA House Price Index -0.5% m/m; S&P CoreLogic 20-city house prices -0.65% m/m, 6.65% y/y; Jan Chicago PMI 45; Jan Conference Board Consumer Confidence 109 Expected earnings: IP 6.9, PFE 1.05, PSX 4.35, PHM 2.92, MCD 2.45, MPC 5.64, GLW .44, UPS 3.58, GM 1.68, CAT 4.00, XOM 3.23, AMD .67, CB 4.25, AMGN 4.07, MDLZ .70 S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3944; 100-day MA: 3869; 150-day MA: 3919; 200-day MA: 3956 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,633; 100-day MA: 32,354; 150-day MA: 32,291; 200-day MA: 32,347 S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3730.35 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3961.51 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4054.88 triggers a buy signal @deftlyinane: Jack ReVelle found and defused two nuclear bombs that accidentally fell on North Carolina. He couldn’t talk about it for 50 years. He fought the VA to prove his cancer was caused by radiation exposure. He died, quietly, 3 years ago today. Here’s his story: “Lieutenant, we found the arm/safe switch,” he told Jack. “Great,” Jack said. “Not great,” the sergeant replied. “It’s on arm.”… Each bomb was 250 times more powerful than the ones that decimated Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and an explosion that large would have permanently altered the geography of this state… After the story was declassified and Jack had his diagnosis, he set out to do two things. The first: To seek official recognition for himself and his men for what they’d done in Goldsboro. The story was out, but the Air Force denied any further recognition or honors, saying that the men were simply doing the job that they’d been assigned to do. In 2014, the Veterans Administration had also denied him further insurance coverage to pay for his treatment because, in their words, there was no direct connection between his exposure to radiation and his sickness… “In February 2020, the final decision was rendered, granting Dr. ReVelle his benefits,” it said. It had taken four years of work, and 10 months of waiting after their appeal, but Jack had won. The release went through the process and details of the case, but only in the second-to-last paragraph did it say what had happened to Jack: “Unfortunately, Dr. ReVelle passed away on January 26, 2020, just three weeks before the decision was rendered.”… (Where were Congress, Obama and Trump on this?) https://www.ncrabbithole.com/p/jack-revelle-goldsboro-nc-broken-arrow-obituary @Rasmussen_Poll: How Did They Know? The largest order in the world ever for ballot envelope stuffing machines was placed by a private Arizona based election printer on March 1, 2020. Months before any public discussion of their use in Nov 2020. How did they know? https://www.uncoverdc.com/2022/06/29/predetermined-algorithms-source-of-widespread-election-fraud-in-arizona/ New Jersey to investigate county election after votes counted twice https://t.co/A6GlgDGf7w @MichaelPSenger: Trump, astonishingly, criticizes DeSantis for lockdowns, saying DeSantis “unapologetically shut down Florida and its beaches.” This from the man who signed “15 days to slow the spread,” extended it, said he “disagreed strongly” with reopening Georgia, and has never apologized. https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1619887765956726784?s=02 @MarinaMedvin: The majority of Trump’s Truth Social posts are about DeSantis. RENT FREE. Amazing. The best part is that if DeSantis decides to run he gets to walk in fully prepared with responses to each ridiculous claim b/c his debate opponent gave away his argument preview FOR FREE. DeSantis wisely has not yet responded to Trump’s barbs. Perhaps, DeSantis realizes that Trump has left a trail of horrible decisions, horrid personnel hirers, and self-incriminating remarks that can easily and effectively be utilized against the Orangeman. Trump has huge vulnerability regarding Covid. @realDonaldTrump Jan 24, 2020: China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi! @stillgray: Trump claims that DeSantis is a globalist but here is Trump praising the world’s biggest globalist, Klaus Schwab, saying “Klaus has done a fantastic job.” https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1619954948107829248 But rich for Trump to attack the Club for Growth when he was happy wining and dining with the group’s president until mid-2022 when they disagreed with him on his endorsement of Dr Oz. Also rich for him to call DeSantis a globalist when he has Kushner running his foreign policy. Trump files lawsuit against journalist Bob Woodward over ‘Trump Tapes’ In 2019 and 2020, the then-president agreed to let Woodward record a series of interviews, but Trump contends that he did not agree to Woodward using those recordings in his 2022 audiobook… https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/01/30/trump-tapes-woodward-lawsuit-paramount/8191675127589/ The Elites Have Stopped Hiding Their Hatred of the Working Class October 12, 2022 Last week, a shocking moment of truth broke through the huge effort elites normally put into hiding their disdain for the rest of us. At an event sponsored by the libertarian Cato Institute, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Adam Posen—a man who appears to be paid $450,000 a year—made clear his absolute contempt for the working class. “The fetish for manufacturing is part of the general fetish for keeping white males of low education outside the cities in the powerful positions they are in in the U.S.,” Posen said. As proof, Posen argued that no one cared when recessions hurt Black Americans. Posen’s words revealed more than he probably wanted to, like the elitist sentiment of wanting people with less education to have less power, or the way rich elites pander to Black Americans by mentioning them to shut down conversations about class disparities, or the ignorant and racist view that Black Americans don’t work in manufacturing… People like Posen would rather the American economy be full of end users and service jobs that are generally lower paid and low skilled. This is a war on the middle class. But it’s also a war on everyone else. When your entire pharmaceutical industry is in another country, that makes every American vulnerable… https://www.newsweek.com/elites-have-stopped-hiding-their-hatred-working-class-opinion-1751368 Mark Houck, Catholic Pro-Life Activist Facing 11 Years in Prison, Acquitted At Trial Houck and his attorneys at the Thomas More Society argue, however, that this “is a political prosecution” meant to “send a message” to pro-life Americans… Breen told the outlet that the case was thrown out of state court but revived by the Biden administration nearly a year after the incident. Further, Breen said, some 20 FBI agents raided Houck’s home when they arrested him, treating him “as if he was a drug lord or a mafia boss.”… Houck pleaded not guilty to the charges against him and testified at trial that he and the clinic escort, Bruce Love, had two altercations on the day in question. The first occurred while Houck was counseling two women crossing the street who left Planned Parenthood, Catholic News Agency reported. Love allegedly chased Houck about 100 feet in an attempt to stop him from counseling the women… https://www.dailywire.com/news/mark-houck-catholic-pro-life-activist-facing-11-years-in-prison-acquitted-at-trial NBA Star Stephen Curry Opposes Affordable Housing Near His $30 Million Mansion “Safety and privacy for us and our kids continues to be our top priority… Should that not be sufficient for the state, we ask that the town commits to investing in considerably taller fencing and landscaping to block sight lines onto our family’s property… https://freebeacon.com/democrats/lib-nba-star-stephen-curry-opposes-affordable-housing-near-his-30-million-mansion/ @PatMcAfeeShow “The league (NFL) knows the officials need to do better and they know something has to be done about it now” ~ @AdamSchefter https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1620115647698210816 “There is an issue with the officiating in the NFL… people around the league believe it is as bad as it has been in a long time, maybe ever…” https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1620115142569754624 Social media teemed with rebukes for NFL refereeing on Sunday, particularly the Chiefs-Bengals game. Here is one of the funniest memes (Shows ref and Mahomes exchanging jerseys): https://twitter.com/200ColumnsRy/status/1620163346078236672 Important Note: Tomorrows report will go out a few hours later due to the scheduled maintenance of the “Critical Impact” platform (our delivery platform). | |
GREG HUNTER REPORT//
Greg Hunter interviewing
I will see you tomorrow
Harvey
harveyorganblog.com 
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