FEB 3/RAID CONTINUES WITH THE FAKE JOBS REPORT//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $52.55 TO $1863.65//SILVER CLOSED DOWN $1.23 TO $22.35//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $45.35 TO $1978.80//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $25.30 TO $1629.75 TO $1629.75//COVID UPDATES: HUGE DEVELOPMENTS IN THAILAND WITH RESPECT TO THE COMA OF THE PRINCESS: BAJRAKRHYAHKA// DR S. BAKHDI PRESENTED DOCUMENTS TO THE ROYAL FAMILY/GOVERNMENT AND THEY ARE NOW TAKING ACTION AGAINST PFIZER//MORE PROJECT VERITAS TAPES RE PFIZER DIRECTOR DR. JORDAN//TAPES REVEAL PUNISHING DAMAGE TO THE FEMALE REPRODUCTIVE SYSTEM// GROWING NUMBER OF PHYSICIANS NOW REFUSE TO TAKE A BOOSTER SHOT//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT/SLAY NEWS//FRANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROTESTS ON THE ILL FATED NEW PENSION REFORM//RUSSIA MOBILIZES 500,000 SOLDIERS READY TO LAUNCH THEIR ATTACK IN THE DONBAS//INDIA CONTINUES ITS TURMOIL RE THE ADANI AFFAIR//USA PROVIDES A TOTAL PHONY JOBS REPORT WITH MASSIVE MADE UP ADJUSTMENTS: WITHOUT ADJUSTMENTS LOSS OF JOBS WOULD EQUAL 2.5 MILLION POOR SOULES AND NOW WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS THE BLS REPORTED A GAIN OF 500,000 A 8 TO 9 SIGMA ADVANCE (TOTALLY UNHEARD OF)//NEXT UP PHONY SERVICE ISM REPORT WHICH IS POLAR OPPOSITE TO THE SERVICE PMI REPORT// WE HAD 285,000 ILLINOIS RESIDENTS LOSE THEIR POWER BECAUSE OF NON PAYMENT OF ENERGY/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
072 C GOLDMAN 9 104 C MIZUHO 2 118 C MACQUARIE FUT 96 13 132 C SG AMERICAS 6 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 7 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 19 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 125 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 25 661 C JP MORGAN 111 55 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 690 C ABN AMRO 35 709 C BARCLAYS 1 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 7 737 C ADVANTAGE 1 800 C MAREX SPEC 58 11 880 C CITIGROUP 48 905 C ADM 2 4
TOTAL: 318 318 MONTH TO DATE: 12,131
NO OF CONTRACTS STOPPED BY JPMORGAN: 55/318
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT: 318 NOTICES FOR 31800 OZ or 0.9891 TONNES
total notices so far: 12,131 contracts for 1,213,100 oz (37.732 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 81 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 405,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month :167 for 835,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD THIS IS VERY VERY STRANGE//TWO DAYS IN A ROW OF DEPOSITS EVEN THOUGH THE HUGE WHACKING IN PRICE DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS:: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $1.23
AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 517.90 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2484 CONTRACTS TO 141,471 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.04 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. FOR THE TWO MONTHS, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.04. AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4084 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 355 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (1.775 MILLION OZ. ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.775 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1600 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GIGANTIC QUEUE JUMP OF 405,000 OZ// NEW TOTALS STANDING = .950 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 2.725 MILLION OZ//// V) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ GIGANTIC EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –344
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 days, total 2596 contracts: OR 12.980 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (865 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 12.98 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 12.98 MILLION OZ/INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2484 DESPITE OUR TINY $0.04 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1600 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 0.54 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 405,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP= NEW STANDING: .950 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING RISES TO 2.725 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 4084OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 81 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 405,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 10,069 CONTRACTS TO 468,356AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed 48– CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 10,069 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $10.95 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 2100 OZ //NEW STANDING: 42.360 //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $10.95 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S RAID
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2487 OI CONTRACTS (7.735 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7,582 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 468,404
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2487 CONTRACTS WITH 10,069CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7582 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2487 CONTRACTS OR 7.735 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7582 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (10,069) TOTAL loss IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2487 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2100 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON// ///3) CONSIDERABLE LONG LIQUIDATION //4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :
10,857 CONTRACTS OR 1,085,700 OZ OR 33.76 TONNES 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 13619 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES:33.76 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 33.76/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.957% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 33.76 TONNES/INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2884 CONTRACTS OI TO 141,471 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 1600 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 1600 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1600 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2484 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1600 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 4084 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 20.420 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.34 PTS OR .68% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 297.89 PTS OR 1.36% /The Nikkei closed UP 107.41 PTS OR 0.33% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .56% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7373 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7431// /Oil UP TO 75.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 82.31 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 10,069 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 468,356 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $10.95
FROM THE HUGE RAID INITIATED BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS YESTERDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 7582 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 7582 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7582 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2487 CONTRACTS IN THAT 7582LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 10,069 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $10.95. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (42.360)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 42.360 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $10.95) //// AND WERE QUITE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2439 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 7.735 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.219 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 2100 OZ OR 0.06 TONNES//new standing 42.360 tonnes … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $10.95.
WE HAD -48 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES ADDED TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2487 CONTRACTS OR 248700 OZ OR 7.735 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 298,947//good//
final gold volumes/yesterday 270,485/// fair
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //FEB 3//
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
12,131 notices 1,213,100 37.732 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Manfra 1350.342 (42 kilobars) oz
ii) Out of Brinks: 160.75 oz (5 kilobars)
Total withdrawals: 1511.092 oz (47 kilobars)
total in tonnes: 0.0469 tonnes
Adjustments:0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1806 contracts having lost 4260 contracts. We had 4239 notices
filed yesterday so we lost 21 contracts or an additional 2100 oz were EFP jumped to London as the crooks could not find any metal over here.
March gained 119 contracts to stand to 2106.
April lost 6493 contracts up to 392,499
We had 318 notice(s) filed today for 31800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 318 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 55 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,813 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEBRUARY 1806 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 318 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,361,900 OZ OR 42.360 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of January.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:
No of notices filed so far (11,813 x 100 oz+ (1806 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (318)x 100 oz} which equals 1,361,900 oz standing OR 42.360 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 42.426TONNES. SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,217,232.653 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,096,423,558 OZ (345.14 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,120,809.095 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,288,597 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 288.91 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
FEB 3/2023//INITIAL. SILVER CONTRACT FOR FEBRUARY
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
87,040.710 oz
CNT
Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,703,957.065 oz Delaware Loomis Manfra
No of oz served today (contracts)
81 CONTRACT(S) (405,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
23 contracts (115,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
167 contracts (835,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 3 deposits into the customer account
i) Into Manfra: 502,212.846 oz
ii) Into Loomis: 600,968.060 oz
iii) Into Delaware: 600,776.159 oz
Total deposits: 1,703,957.065 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 148.279 million oz/292.926 million =50.52% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) Out of CNT: 76,989.03 oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 10,051.680 oz
Total withdrawals; 87,040.710 oz
adjustments: 1
i) out of Manfra 297,916.600 oz
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 32.513MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 292.926 MILLION OZ
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB/2023 OI: 104 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 36 CONTRACT(S.).
WE HAD 45 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 81 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 405,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL
STAND AT THE COMEX.
March GAINED 585 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 105,863 contracts
April gained its first 14 contract OI to stand at 14.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:81 for 405,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 64,787//fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 90,260 contracts ( very strong)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 167 x 5,000 oz = 835,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(104) and the number of notices served upon today 81 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month:167 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB (104 – number of notices served upon today (81) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 0.950 million oz + 1.775 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 2.725MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
Comex volumes:113,404// est. volume today// huge//crooks
FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 29//WITH GOLD UP $8.35 TODAY:; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.50 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY REST S AT 918.51 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $18.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.01 TONNES
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $19,15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES/
DEC 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.35 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $27.05: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
DEC 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41 TONNES
DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $12.45: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.88 TONNES
DEC 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $31.00: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 911.56 TONNES
DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.20: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.72 TONNES
DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $32.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.41
DEC 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
DEC 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
Dec 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.05, OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS WE LOST 2.04 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 908.09 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 920.24 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 3/WITH SILVER $1.23 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.90 MILLION OZ//
FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.11 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.90 MILLION OZ
FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.4 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 519.000 MILLION OZ
JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.5 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.400 MILION OZ
JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.900 MILLION OZ.
JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.900 MILLION OZ//
JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 900,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.900 MILLION OZ//
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TO TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.3 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.000 MILLION OZ
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: WHAT!! A MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/( OCCURRED (LATE LAST NIGHT)//INVENTORY RESTS AT 518.70 MILLION OZ//
JAN 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.4 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.7 MILLION OZ//
JAN 20.WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.300 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.15 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ///
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//
JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/
JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/
DEC 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/ WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 28//WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.715 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///..INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.050 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.350 MILLION OZ//
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT507.900 MILLION O//
DEC 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 53 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.0 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 105 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:: A DEPOSIT OF 700,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.90 MILLION OZ//
DEC 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.05 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.20 MILLION OZ//
DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.85 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.15 MILLION OZ//
DEC 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF EXACTLY 2.00 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.000 MILLION OZ
DEC 14/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.000 MILLION OZ//
DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 600,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.900 MILLION OZ//
DEC 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ//
DEC 9/WITH SILVER RISING 77 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.500 MILLION OZ.
DEC 8/WITH SILVER RISING 34 CENTS TODAY: OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS, WE HAVE GAINED A STRONG: 44.777 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.700 MILION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 517.90 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Russian mercenaries fight for gold mines in Central African Republic
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-02-02 11:21Section: Daily Dispatches
By Zeinab Mohammed Salih and Jason Burke The Guardian, London Thursday, February 2, 2023
Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group have sustained heavy casualties in a new surge of fighting between government troops and rebels over the control of lucrative goldmines in Central African Republic.
The clashes come amid increasing instability in the anarchic, resource-rich country, which in recent years has become one of Russia’s main hubs of influence in sub-Saharan Africa.
The government offensive is led by some of the estimated 1,000 Wagner fighters stationed in the country since 2018.
Alasdair Macleod: The real war is in currencies, not Ukraine
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-02-02 11:31Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod GoldMoney, Toronto Thursday, February 2, 2023
In the war between the Western alliance and the Asian axis, the media focus is on the Ukrainian battlefield. The real war is in currencies, with Russia capable of destroying the dollar.
So far, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions have been relatively passive. But already both Russia and China have accumulated enough gold to implement gold standards. It is now overwhelmingly in their interests to do so.
From Sergey Glazyev’s recent article in a Russian business newspaper, it is clear that settlement of trade balances between members, dialog partners, and associate members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) optionally will be in gold. Furthermore, the Russian economy would benefit enormously from a decline in borrowing rates from current levels of more than 13% to a level more consistent with sound money.
To understand the consequences, in this article the comparison is made between the Western alliance’s fiat-currency and deficit-spending regime and the Russian-Chinese axis’ planned industrial revolution for some 3.8 billion people in the SCO family. China has a remarkable savings rate, which will underscore the investment capital for a rapid increase in Asian industrialisation without inflationary consequences.
With a new round of military action in Ukraine shortly to kick off, it will be in Putin’s interest to move from passivity to financial aggression. It will not take much for him to undermine the entire Western fiat-currency system — a danger barely recognised by a gung-ho NATO military complex. …
Wyoming Senate votes to hold invest and receive tax payments in gold and silver
(MMN)
Wyoming Senate votes to hold, invest, and receive tax payments in gold and silver
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-02-02 19:00Section: Daily Dispatches
By JP Cortez Money Metals News Service Eagle, Idaho Thursday, February 2, 2023
CHEYENNE, Wyoming — The Wyoming State Senate today voted 16-15, on a bipartisan basis, to pass a bill prompting the state treasurer to hold gold and silver “specie” to protect the state — as well as establish a process to receive certain tax payments in specie.
Introduced by Senator Bob Ide, R-Casper, SF 101 amends and further implements the Wyoming Legal Tender Act, a popular 2018 law that had removed all tax liability from gold and silver transactions and affirmed that the monetary metals are legal tender in Wyoming.
Senate File 101 prompts the Wyoming state treasurer to create a formal system to deal directly in constitutional money — a system that would also include holding gold as an asset to help the Cowboy State hedge against its high exposure to Federal Reserve note dollars and potentially invest in precious metals leases and bonds.
The Department of Revenue could receive mineral tax payments denominated in specie — that is, gold and silver. And in executing its duties, the state treasurer could hire precious metals firms that are experts in receiving, authenticating, exchanging, and storing gold and silver. …
The crypto bank hasn’t been accused of wrongdoing, but prosecutors want to see how deep the dealings between the crypto bank and FTX went…
Crypto bank Silvergate is reportedly being probed by the United States Department of Justice fraud unit over its involvement with the bankrupt FTX exchange and its affiliates.
The probe is investigating Silvergate’s hosting of accounts linked to former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s businesses, according to a Feb. 3 report by Bloomberg, which cited “people familiar with the matter.”
The California-based crypto bank is not accused of any crime, but investigators are attempting to discover how deep the dealings with FTX and Alameda went.
Silvergate was heavily impacted by the collapse of FTX in November, reporting a $1 billion loss last quarter. The bank axed 40% of its staff and disclosed taking out billions of dollars in loans to prevent a liquidity crisis and bank run following the fall of the SBF empire.
The federal investigators are trying to ascertain whether Silvergate and any other companies working with FTX were aware of the situation.
According to Silvergate, Alameda opened an account with the bank in 2018, before the launch of FTX. It claims to have conducted due diligence and ongoing monitoring at the time, according to the report.
This week a bank representative said that the firm “has a comprehensive compliance and risk management program.”
Crypto trader Josh Rager commented on how this latest criminal investigation may impact crypto exchanges with ties to Silvergate.
On Jan. 27, Silvergate suspended its dividends, citing “recent volatility in the digital asset industry.” It maintained that it had a “cash position in excess of its digital asset customer-related deposits,” at the time.
Silvergate stock has lost 13% on the day tumbling to $17.14 in after-hours trading, according to MarketWatch. Furthermore, SI prices were currently 92% down from their all-time high of $220 in November 2021.
Cointelegraph reached out to Silvergate for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.
END
.
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7323
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7431
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.34 PTS OR .68%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 297.89 PTS OR 1.36%
2. Nikkei closed UP 107.41 PTS OR 0.39%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101.44 Euro RISES TO 1.0935 UP 31 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.483!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 128.42/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.1425%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 3.921%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.094…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.947//
3j Gold at $1915.50//silver at: 23.46 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 36/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 70.41//
3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 128.42/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54% FALLS TO .483% ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9130–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9984well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.390% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.541 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,82…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.302% DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Drop As Tech Earnings Disappoint, Payrolls Loom
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 08:12 AM
Thursday’s powerful rally reverse and Nasdaq futures slipped on Friday after the “Triple-A” tech giants Apple, Amazon and Alphabet poured cold water on sentiment after their reported earnings that largely missed expectations and showed an economic slowdown is choking demand for their businesses. APPL missed its 4Q revenue despite holiday season, stock -3.1%; AMZN’s Q1 guidance missed expectation, stock -5.4%; GOOGL signaled declines in searching demand, stock -4.0%. As a result, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1% as of 7:45am ET after underlying benchmark soared 3.6% on Thursday, taking weekly gains to 5.2%. This would be the index’s fifth week of gains, marking the longest such winning streak since November 2021. S&P 500 futures also dropped, sliding 0.5% and off session lows. The risk off mood helped rates drop with the 10-year yield falling to about 3.38%; the dollar was flat, reversing earlier gains, while oil traded modestly in the red.
Today, the focal point will be the NFP data: consensus sees NFP to print 189k vs 223k prior; Unemployment to print 3.6% vs 3.5% prior. Further, keep an eye on the Hourly Earnings (4.6% survey vs. 4.3% prior) and Labor Force Participation Rate (62.3% survey vs. 62.3% prior) to further gauge the wage inflation.
As noted above, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet, which have a combined market value of almost $5 trillion, produced results that highlighted weaker demand for electronics, e-commerce, cloud computing and digital advertising. All three companies slumped in premarket trading. Together, they comprise about 27% of the Nasdaq 100. Here is a snapshot of their disappointing earnings:
Apple Inc (AAPL) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 1.88 (exp. 1.94), Revenue 117.15bln (exp. 121.1bln), Products 96.39bln (exp. 98.98bln), iPhone 65.78bln (exp. 68.3bln), Mac 7.74bln (exp. 9.72bln), iPad 9.40bln (exp. 7.78bln). Co. said Q2 2023 revenue growth will be higher than the previous year and it sees a 5% impact from FX rates in Q2, while it expects iPhone revenue growth to accelerate in Q2 compared to Q1. Shares are lower by 3.3% pre-market.
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 1.05 (exp. 1.18), Revenue 76.05bln (exp. 76.53bln). Google advertising 59.04bln (exp. 60.64bln). Significant work underway to improve all aspects of cost structure, in support of investments in highest growth priorities. Shares are lower by 4.1% pre-market.
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 0.03 (exp. 0.18), Revenue 149.2bln (exp. 145.42bln).AWS net sales USD 21.38bln (exp. 21.76bln). Co. said in the short-term, it faces an uncertain economy but remain quite optimistic about the long-term opportunities for the Co. Shares are lower by 5.5% pre-market.
Elsewhere in premarket trading, bank stocks were mixed as investors awaited the release of economic data including monthly US payrolls. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Nordstrom shares jump as much as 37% on news that meme-stock activist investor Ryan Cohen is building a large stake in the department store operator, a move that analysts said was positive, though they were looking to hear more regarding the activist’s intentions.
Gilead shares rose 3.9% on low volumes after the company reported 4Q results. Gilead’s core business performed well and complemented strong ongoing sales for the biopharma’s Covid treatment, which should bode well for investor sentiment into 2023, analysts say.
Qualcomm sank 3.6% after the semiconductor and telecommunication equipment provider gave worse-than-expected forecasts for the second quarter, saying it’s yet to see the benefits of China reopening in smartphone demand.
Starbucks shares fall 2.1% after the coffee chain delivered results that showed weakness in China that dragged on its overall performance.
Atlassian shares fall 12% as a second consecutive cloud guidance cut and weaker trends in its customer base are both causes for concern for analysts, though some say expectations for the software company have now been rebased to a beatable level.
Bill.com shares drop 20% as the back-office software firm’s quarterly results showed surprising levels of macro-driven weakness in its customer base, according to analysts.
Keep an eye on Boeing after the stock was cut to sector perform from outperform at RBC as the broker sees supply chain and production overhangs weighing on sentiment for the plane manufacturer.
Despite Friday’s weakness, US stock soared this week after Fed Chair Powell said the central bank has made progress in its fight to tamp down inflation, with investors brushing off fears of more rate hikes. Aside from further earnings, a slew of labor data will be in focus on Friday. Fed officials have made clear they want to see evidence that supply and demand imbalances in the labor market are starting to improve.
“The resilience of the labor market does appear to suggest that markets are underestimating how much further headroom the Federal Reserve might have when it comes to further rate hikes,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. “There continues to be a sense that the market is extraordinarily complacent about how quickly we might see the Federal Reserve pivot when it comes to interest rates.”
“Risk markets are buoyed by lower implied policy rates and expectations that the Fed will achieve a soft landing,” Alex Rohner, a fixed-income strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin Ltd. wrote in a note. “This will be very hard to achieve. In fact, substantial tightening cycles such as the current one have historically led to a sharp rise in unemployment, and a recession.”
European stocks retreated after closing within a whisker of a bull market on Thursday. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.2% with real estate, construction and financial services the worst-performing sectors. French drugmaker Sanofi was the biggest decliner in index-points terms after forecasting a slowdown in profit growth this year. Carmakers also weighed on the index, following US peers lower after Ford’s disappointing earnings report. Here are the biggest European movers:
Sanofi shares drop as much as 5.2%, the most since November, after the French pharma giant reported fourth-quarter results that missed estimates on weak vaccine sales
IWG shares drop as much as 6.9% after Barclays cut the workspace provider to equalweight from overweight, saying that consensus looks too optimistic
Coloplast slides as much as 3.6%, before paring losses, after the Danish chronic and continence care firm’s in- line 1Q report was overshadowed by unchanged and somewhat cautious guidance
Volvo Car -3.4%, Ferrari -3%, Porsche -3.9%, Faurecia -2.3%, VW -1.6%, BMW -1.5%, Stellantis -1.5% after Ford posted fourth-quarter profit that fell short of Wall Street estimates
Cint falls as much as 41%, the most since its 2021 IPO after the Swedish data-insights firm pre-released weak 4Q results
Skanska falls as much as 4.2% after a weak performance for the Swedish construction group’s residential development arm proved a weak spot in an otherwise strong 4Q report
Zur Rose shares jumped as much as 92%, with trading halted multiple times over the course of the morning, after news the online pharmacy had sold its Swiss business to Migros subsidiary Medbase
CaixaBank shares rose as much as 3.9%, the most since December, after the Spanish lender reported fourth-quarter results that beat estimates and said it will consider additional extraordinary capital distributions
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, with the regional benchmark on course for its first weekly drop of the year, as the rally in Chinese equities paused. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.6% on Friday, with declines in heavyweights Alibaba and BHP helping to offset gains in tech stocks in Japan and South Korea. Key gauges for Hong Kong and mainland China were major drags. Hopes for an energizing economic reopening and easing of corporate crackdowns have spurred a blistering rally in Chinese stocks — with the MSCI China Index up more than 50% from an October trough. But investors have started looking more deeply for new catalysts to extend the rally. Valuation of the MSCI measure of Chinese stocks may rise from the current level of around 11 times projected earnings, but to reach 13 times or more, “people need to have a very different view on geopolitical risks,” Wendy Liu, a strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Still, “within that range, I think there are a lot of investment opportunities,” she said.
Japanese equities bucked the Asian trend and rose, as investors digested corporate earnings reports: Sony, Takeda Pharmaceutical and other companies that reported their latest quarterly results gained. The Topix Index rose 0.3% to 1,970.26 as of market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.4% to 27,509.46. Sony contributed the most to the Topix Index’s gain, increasing 6.2% as the electronics and entertainment provider beat earnings expectations and lifted its outlook. Takeda and Murata also climbed after results. Still, among the 2,164 stocks in the index, decliners outpaced advancers 1,301 to 739, while 124 were unchanged. The latest flow data show foreign investors last week bought the most Japanese stocks and futures in more than four years.
Australian stocks posted a fifth week of gains: the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to close at a nine-month high of 7,558.10, boosted by strength in banks and health care shares. The benchmark advanced for a fifth straight week, adding 0.9%. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.4% to 12,197.15.
India’s benchmark stocks gauge rallied to post its biggest weekly advance in more than six months as investors continued to overlook the selloff in shares of Adani Group, some of which rose on Friday after volatility-curbing measures from exchanges. The S&P BSE Sensex Index rose 1.5% to 60,841.88 in Mumbai, taking its weekly rally to 2.6%, the biggest since July 31. The NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 1.4%, while its weekly gains trailed the benchmark at 1.4%, dragged by sharp plunge in shares of some Adani companies that are part of the broader index. Shares of Adani conglomerate were mixed as four out of ten companies, including Adani Enterprises, ended higher, led by 7.9% gain in ports and logistics unit while both cement units also advanced. The flagship gained 1.4%, overcoming an intraday plunge of as much as 35%. Local bourses placed six Adani Group companies, four of which also have derivative contracts traded, on a watchlist for additional trading scrutiny, a measure that analysts saw helping curb volatility in these stocks. However, the measure didn’t pacify selling in Adani Transmission and Adani Green Energy, which plunged by daily 10% limit. Excluding for the four gainers, rest six companies related to the group, closed at lower circuit level. “The equity markets witnessed an extremely high level of volatility all through the week, on account of external as well as domestic developments,” said Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management. “The Fed outcome as well as ECB, and also the selloff in the shares of a major business group added to the selling pressure.” Despite the selloff in Adani shares, investors have been focusing on sectors, such as consumer durables and technology, which have corrected sharply in recent weeks. Consumer durables index was the top gainer among BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector gauges while utilities, which have weight to Adani stocks, were the worst.
In FX, the Dollar Index is down 0.2% ahead of the US jobs report. The Canadian dollar and Australian dollar are the weakest among the G-10’s.
In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve helped by a drop in S&P futures from Thursday’s peak as tech earnings from Apple, Amazon and Alphabet dented post-FOMC optimism. US 10-year yields around 3.39%, marginally richer vs. Thursday close with bunds lagging by 8bp in the sector, gilts by 2bp; US curve spreads slightly steeper, although within a basis point of Thursday close. Three-month dollar Libor +2.80bp at 4.83414%. European bonds also declined, paring some of the sizable gains seen after Thursday’s central bank decisions. German 10-year yields are up 6bps while the UK equivalent adds 2bps.
US economic data slate includes January jobs report (8:30am), S&P services PMI (9:45am) and ISM services index (10am): January jobs report estimate a headline print of 188k, down from prior 223k with whisper number at 197k.
In commodities, oil headed for a second weekly drop as optimism over a recovery in Chinese demand dimmed and US stockpiles kept rising. Crude futures are little changed with WTI trading near $75.85. Russia’s Kremlin said the EU embargo on Russian petroleum products will further unbalance energy market, according to Reuters. Base metals are mostly lower whilst copper bucks the trend; LME copper tested levels close to USD 9,050/t (vs high 9,091/t) before finding some support. Spot gold is down 0.1% at $1,910.
Bitcoin trades flat in European hours on either side of USD 23,500 awaitng the US NFP.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for January. Otherwise, in the US we’ve got the ISM services index for January, there’s the Euro Area PPI reading for December, and the final services and composite PMIs for January from around the world. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Daly, the ECB’s Visco and BoE chief economist Pill.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 4,161.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 457.99
MXAP down 0.2% to 169.86
MXAPJ down 0.3% to 555.25
Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,509.46
Topix up 0.3% to 1,970.26
Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 21,660.47
Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,263.41
Sensex up 1.6% to 60,865.73
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,558.11
Kospi up 0.5% to 2,480.40
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.14%
Euro little changed at $1.0918
Brent Futures up 0.2% to $82.37/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,914.44
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 101.73
Top Overnight News
Bullish markets are increasingly pricing in a second-half reversal of the global monetary tightening wave, making it tougher for central bankers to vanquish inflation once and for all
Late to the global interest-rate hiking party, the ECB is trying to convince everyone that it will also be one of the last to leave; ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said next month’s planned hike in borrowing costs probably won’t be the last, while Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said a rate cut in 2023 is “not very likely”; Professional forecasters surveyed by the ECB expect inflation to average 2.1% in 2025
Russia will almost triple the amount of foreign currency it plans to sell through early March after a plunge in energy revenue brought it far below the target set in the budget
The BOJ’s unrealized losses from its bond holdings grew about 10 times last quarter due to the December policy adjustments that drove up yields
China’s policymakers plan to step up support for domestic demand this year but are likely to stop short of splashing out big on direct consumer subsidies, keeping their focus mainly on investment, three sources close to policy discussions said. RTRS
China said on Friday that cross border travel between the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau would fully resume from Feb. 6, dropping existing quotas and scrapping a mandatory COVID-19 test that was required before travelling. RTRS
CIA Director William Burns said on Thursday the intelligence agency assesses that China’s President Xi Jinping has been a little sobered by the war in Ukraine, but that it would be a mistake to underestimate Beijing and Moscow’s commitment to partnership. SCMP
BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill has said policy makers must “enguard against the possibility of doing too much” on interest rates, the latest sign that the quickest tightening cycle in three decades may be near an end. BBG
The ECB is likely to raise interest rates again in May after an already signalled hike in March, two policymakers said on Friday, with one arguing that the peak or “terminal” rate is at least starting to appear on the horizon.
The number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000, a stark symbol of just how badly President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion has gone, according to American and other Western officials. NYT
The Kremlin on Friday rejected as a “hoax” media reports that U.S. CIA Director William Burns had travelled to Moscow with a secret peace proposal that involved Ukraine ceding a fifth of its territory to Russia. The Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung’s report, which said Burns had made a secret trip to Moscow last month to put forward the plan on behalf of the White House, has also been dismissed by Washington. RTRS
Big 3 Last Night: AAPL missed on EPS and revs on the call said the shortfall was driven by China supply disruptions (which have been resolved) while China demand improves (thanks to reopening) and gross margins were guided above the St (due in part to falling commodity costs); AMZN (worst of the 3) w/ the slowdown/miss in AWS (on the call said AWS is set to slow even more); GOOGL missed on EPS/op. income/revs (Google Search and YouTube advertising both were light). Into prints we saw L/O supply. Last night and pre open HFs buying the weakness. GS Securities
Turkey’s consumer inflation slowed less than forecast, even as months of deceleration are emboldening policymakers to consider interest- rate cuts ahead of approaching elections. Consumer prices rose an annual 57.7% last month, from 64.3% in December
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed as participants digested the latest bout of central bank rate hikes and a slew of earnings releases, while strong Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI data also failed to inspire. ASX 200 was led by healthcare and real estate, while the top-weighted financial sector also benefitted amid reports of early merger talks between regional lenders Bank of Queensland and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank. Nikkei 225 briefly breached the 27,500 level as earnings remained in focus with Sony among the best performers after it reported higher 9-month profits, as well as raised its FY net guidance and PS5 sales target. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. weakened despite the easing of border restrictions between mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, while the rebound in Chinese Caixin PMI data also failed to spur risk appetite after the bout of global central bank policy tightening and with China’s Commerce Ministry warning that the nation’s imports and exports face an extremely severe environment on slowing external demand.
Top Asian News
Hong Kong Macau Affairs Office said will drop cross-border restrictions between the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau, as well as end pre-arrival PCR testing for some travellers and will resume group tours effective February 6th. Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee also announced that all border points between mainland China and Hong Kong are to resume without quotas on travel, according to Reuters.
Chinese policymakers are planning on supporting domestic demand in 2023 but are unlikely to “splash out” on direct consumer subsidies, keeping their focus on investment, according to Reuters sources.
China’s Cabinet stated that China’s economy still faces difficult and challenges, according to state media, adding that China’s economic operations are recovering, and will consolidate and expand economic recovery momentum, via Reuters.
European bourses trade mostly lower, with little in terms of news flow since the cash open as participants look ahead to the US jobs numbers. Sectors are now mixed with Energy, Basic Resources, and Healthcare as the top performers, with the former two aided by gains in underlying commodities, whilst healthcare is driven by gains in Roche (+3.0%) and AstraZeneca (+1.7%) whilst Sanofi (-2.9%) slips after poorly-received earnings. Sticking with sectors, the sectoral laggards comprise of Real Estate, Utilities, Construction and Financial Services. US futures are softer across the board with the NQ the underperformer amid disappointing earnings from highly concentrated mega-cap names (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG).
Top European News
BoE’s Chief Economics Pill said the UK has had some better times as of late, he is confident yesterday’s hike was necessary and appropriate, and there is still a lot of policy in the pipeline. Pill said the MPC has changed language quite substantially and the MPC’s job is to return inflation to the target and hold it over the medium term. He said he does not want to steer market rates on a day-to-day basis and they have to be prepared for shocks. He said it is important to guard against the possibility of doing too much. He has reasonably high confidence we will see inflation fall this year, focus is on whether inflation declined further ahead, and the notion of whether we are in a recession or not may vary throughout the year, via Times Radio.
ECB’s Simkus said inflation has probably peaked but core has yet to do so; 50bps hike in March may not be the last half-point move. He said a rate hike in May is possible, could be 25bps or 50bps but hardly 75bps. Rate reduction this year is unlikely but possible next year if the situation changes. Inflation trends are positive and approaching the terminal rate, according to Reuters and Bloomberg.
ECB’s Kazimir said March hike will not bring rates to peak. ECB will decide how many hikes take place beyond March, and fears that inflation could stay at levels too high. He said the fight against inflation is far from won.
ECB’s Rehn said the Governing Council intends to raise rates by 50bsp in March, via Twtter.
ECB’s Muller said core inflation is a cause for concern, via Bloomberg.
ECB’s Wunsch said a 25bps or 50bps rate hike is possible; will not go from 50bps in March to zero in May, and adds that 3.5% terminal rate is the minimum. He said core inflation remains persistent. He said Thursday’s decision was hawkish, market reaction was surprising.
ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: 2023 inflation nudged higher to 5.9%, 2025 seen just above target at 2.1%.
FX
DXY has given up earlier gains after testing levels close to 102.00 before warning towards 101.50.
EUR and GBP reside as the current outperformers, with the former lifted by hawkish commentary from several ECB members, whilst both currencies benefit from upward revisions to January PMIs.
CAD is the lagged as USD/CAD continued its rebound from sub-1.3300 and y-t-d low, while the AUD suffers some contagion from a Yuan retreat.
Fixed Income
10yr USTs is nearer 115-13+ than 115-22+ extremes vs 116-00 at best in the previous session as eyes turn to the NFP.
Bunds have been down to 138.56 for a 137 tick retracement from Thursday peak following hawkish ECB commentary.
Gilts sub-107.00 at 106.89 having hit 107.78 yesterday, but downside is cushioned by dovishly-received remarks from BoE’s Pill.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are choppy as the contracts trimmed their earlier modest gains, while complex-specific news flow has been rather light in the European morning.
Spot gold is flat intraday but with a downside bias despite the dollar waning throughout the European morning.
Base metals are mostly lower whilst copper bucks the trend; LME copper tested levels close to USD 9,050/t (vs high 9,091/t) before finding some support.
Russia’s Kremlin said the EU embargo on Russian petroleum products will further unbalance energy market, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics
US is tracking a suspected Chinese spy balloon which entered US airspace a couple of days ago which US military officials recommended to not shoot down because of safety risks, while President Biden was briefed regarding the spy balloon and asked the military to present options, according to a senior administration official cited by Reuters. It was later reported that Canada’s Department of National Defence was monitoring a possible 2nd balloon incident.
Chinese Foreign Ministry, on the US Pentagon suspecting a Chinese spy balloon over US, said speculation and hype are not conducive until the facts are clear, according to Reuters.
US CIA Director Burns said China is the biggest geopolitical challenge that the US faces and the CIA assessed that Chinese President Xi has been a little sobered by Ukraine but has serious focus and ambition on Taiwan, according to Reuters.
Chinese Foreign Ministry said there is no news to release at this time on US Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China, according to Reuters.
Secretaries of Security Councils of Central Asia, Pakistan, India, China are to meet on Afghanistan in Moscow next week, according to Tass.
Reports of air raid sirens in Kyiv before EU-Ukraine summit started, according to AFP.
Russia’s Kremlin has rejected reports that the US offered Russia a secret peace plan on Ukraine, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Jan. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 189,000, prior 223,000
Change in Private Payrolls, est. 190,000, prior 220,000
Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 7,000, prior 8,000
Unemployment Rate, est. 3.6%, prior 3.5%
Underemployment Rate, prior 6.5%
Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.3%, prior 62.3%
Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.3%, prior 4.6%
Average Weekly Hours est. 34.3, prior 34.3
09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 46.6, prior 46.6
ISM Services Prices Paid, prior 67.6, revised 68.1
ISM Services Employment, prior 49.8, revised 49.4
ISM Services New Orders, prior 45.2
ISM Services Index, est. 50.5, prior 49.6, revised 49.2
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After an action packed week, I’ve been press ganged into attending a fancy dress quiz night at our kids’ school this weekend. The theme is “back to the 90s”. My wife is going as Geri Halliwell and rather randomly I’m going as the late Keith Flint from the band The Prodigy as my wife found a supposedly good outfit for me. I’ve not seen it yet but I have a fake green Mohican, some fake nose studs, a studded collar and numerous fake ear piercings. My wife has her make up box ready as well. I can only hope it’s the 1990s and not the 1890s as we’ll look a bit racy next to Queen Victoria otherwise. For those that voted for us in II last year you’ll be spared pictures. For those that didn’t, you’ll get them when you least expect.
Ahead of that excitement, today we hit another payrolls Friday after an astonishing rally across the board over the last 36 hours. The highlight yesterday was one of the biggest rallies for European sovereigns in a decade as investors grew hopeful that central banks were nearing the end of their hiking cycles. Whilst plenty were questioning how sustainable this rally will prove given the actual decisions and central bank commentary, the results were undeniable. Yields on 10yr bunds (-20.4bps) saw their largest daily decline since November 2011, on the day that Mario Draghi became ECB President. That positivity was evident across the board, with the S&P 500 (+1.47%) hitting a 5-month high, and the NASDAQ (+3.25%) ending the day just shy of entering a bull market (+19.5% from the lows). However, entering that bull market might wait for another day as the big 3 tech earnings after the bell – Apple, Alphabet and Amazon – all disappointed in various ways. Their shares were down -3.2%, -4.6% and -5.1% in after-hours trading. However for some perspective they were up +3.7%, +7.3% and +7.4% respectively in normal trading.
Google’s parent company missed on Q4 revenues, particularly in YouTube ads, which are down year over year. Meanwhile Amazon reported their first annual loss since 2014, posting a net loss of -2.7bn, compared to $33bn in profit over the previous fiscal year. Apple had a poor holiday season that the company blamed in part on supply chain issues due to the Covid policies in China that led to a slower rollout of new products. Against that background, NASDAQ 100 futures are now -1.51% lower, with S&P futures down -0.53%.
The normal hours rally got a big boost from what was at first glance a pretty hawkish ECB announcement before the nuances came through. The hike itself was 50bps as expected, taking the deposit rate up to a post-2008 high of 2.5%. And in a surprise move, they also pre-committed themselves to another 50bps hike in March, which only 2-3 weeks ago had been considered in the balance between 25 and 50. However, markets latched onto several other more dovish signals, in particular that after March they would “then evaluate the subsequent path of its monetary policy.” In addition, President Lagarde acknowledged that inflation risks were now “more balanced”, and that “the recent fall in energy prices, if it persists, may slow inflation more rapidly than expected.” What investors have liked about this week’s central bank commentary is that it will seemingly become more dependent on inflation data after March. The market thinks inflation is tamed and thus central banks will be able to, or will have to, cut rates before year-end. See our European economists’ views here, where they explain why they view yesterday’s decision as the ECB preparing for the third and final stage of the tightening cycle. They maintain their view of a 3.25% terminal rate following a 50bp hike in March and a final hike of 25bp in May.
Even as our view of terminal remained unchanged, investors moved to price in a move dovish back end to this year and beyond. For instance, even as investors moved to fully price in a 50bps move next month, the rate priced in for year-end came down by around 20bps. In turn, that triggered a massive rally for European sovereigns, with declines among 10yr bunds (-20.4bps), OATs (-23.7bps) and BTPs (-39.3bps) that we haven’t seen in years. On BTPs, it was the sixth best daily move since our daily data begins in 1993.
This rally initially wasn’t just confined to Europe though, since the ECB’s move added to pre-existing views that central banks are moving away from the forceful hikes of late-2022, and will instead adopt a more data-driven approach that could soon see a pause in the hiking cycle. This initially caused US Treasuries to rally along with Europe. However, in the NY afternoon, rates gave back some of their gains as expectations on the Fed’s terminal rate ultimately remained unchanged, leaving yields on 10yr Treasuries (-2.4bps) just slightly lower at 3.376%. The effects of that could be seen in financial conditions as well, with Bloomberg’s index for the US easing intraday to its most accommodative level since last February before tightening into the close as rates sold off. Regardless financial conditions remain nearly as loose as we have seen in nearly a year.
A major component of the looser financial conditions has been the rally in equities, with the S&P 500 (+1.47%) posting a third consecutive gain of more than +1% for the first time since October. The backdrop of lower rates meant that tech stocks saw a major outperformance, with the NASDAQ up +3.25%, and the FANG+ index seeing its best day since November with a +6.92% gain prior to the after-hours hiccup. It was much the same story in Europe too, with the STOXX 600 (+1.35%) at a 9-month high, along with advances for the DAX (+2.16%) and the CAC 40 (+1.26%) as well.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning even as US equities closed on a positive note overnight. As I type, the KOSPI (+0.60%) and the Nikkei (+0.35%) are trading in the green. However, Chinese equities, led by the Hang Seng (-1.82%) and followed by the CSI (-1.67%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.37%) are sharply lower in morning trading, taking some of the steam out of the strong rally since late October. The weak tech earnings from Wall Street overshadowed optimism about China’s economic recovery as the nation’s service sector expanded for the first time in 5 months in January. Data released showed that the services PMI rose to 52.9 from 48 in December as the sector got a boost from the lifting of strict Covid-19 curbs.
Elsewhere, the final estimate of Japan’s au Jibun Bank services PMI edged up to 52.3 in January, a 3-month high against the prior month’s reading of 51.1. The composite PMI advanced to 50.7 in January from 49.7 in December, moving above 50 for the first time in three months. Meanwhile, yields on Japanese 10yr government bonds fell (-0.9bps) to 0.48%, just below the ceiling of the Bank of Japan’s target range.
Looking forward, today’s main highlight will be the US jobs report for January, which will offer a firmer read on the state of the labour market entering 2023. Our US economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to have grown by +175k, which would be the weakest since the December 2020 contraction, but would be consistent with a pattern that’s seen declines for 5 consecutive months now. If realised, they see the unemployment rate ticking up a tenth to 3.6%, and they think average hourly earnings will be up by +0.3%. Keep an eye out for the work week hours which was disappointing last month. Ahead of that, yesterday’s labour market data continued the theme of very strong readings, with the initial weekly jobless claims for the week ending January 28 at just 183k (vs. 195k expected). That’s their lowest level since last April, and this isn’t just a blip either, since the 4-week moving average fell to an 8-month low of 191.75k as well.
Finally, the other central bank decision yesterday came from the Bank of England, who hiked by 50bps as expected, thus taking Bank Rate up to 4%. The vote split was 7-2, with the minority preferring to leave rates unchanged. But the decision was seen as dovish, in part because the MPC dropped their previous guidance that they would “respond forcefully” if inflationary pressures were more persistent. Instead, there was a milder form of words that said if there were “more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.” Against that backdrop, sterling weakened by -1.18% against the US Dollar, and yields on 10yr gilts were down -30.1bps, which was a larger decline than in most other European countries. Our UK economist Sanjay Raja opines on the meeting here and has reduced his terminal forecast from 4.50% to 4.25%, with 25bps in March being the last hike. There are risks of modest rate hikes in H2. See his piece for more.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for January. Otherwise, in the US we’ve got the ISM services index for January, there’s the Euro Area PPI reading for December, and the final services and composite PMIs for January from around the world. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Daly, the ECB’s Visco and BoE chief economist Pill.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
A quiet European morning but US tech giants see losses in the pre-market following earnings: AAPL -3.5%, AMZN -5.7%, GOOG -4.9% – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 06:50 AM
European bourses trade mostly lower, with little in terms of news flow since the cash open as participants look ahead to the US jobs number.
US tech giants see losses in the pre-market following earnings, AAPL -3.5%, AMZN -5.7%, GOOG -4.9%.
DXY has given up earlier gains after testing levels close to 102.00 before warning towards 101.50, EUR and GBP reside as the current outperform.
Bunds have been down to 138.56 for a 137-tick retracement from Thursday’s peak following hawkish ECB commentary.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Labour Market Report, ISM Services PMI, Speeches from Fed’s Daly, BoE’s Pill & ECB’s Elderson.
European bourses trade mostly lower, with little in terms of news flow since the cash open as participants look ahead to the US jobs numbers.
Sectors are now mixed with Energy, Basic Resources, and Healthcare as the top performers, with the former two aided by gains in underlying commodities, whilst healthcare is driven by gains in Roche (+3.0%) and AstraZeneca (+1.7%) whilst Sanofi (-2.9%) slips after poorly-received earnings. Sticking with sectors, the sectoral laggards comprise of Real Estate, Utilities, Construction and Financial Services.
US futures are softer across the board with the NQ the underperformer amid disappointing earnings from highly concentrated mega-cap names (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG).
DXY has given up earlier gains after testing levels close to 102.00 before warning towards 101.50.
EUR and GBP reside as the current outperformers, with the former lifted by hawkish commentary from several ECB members, whilst both currencies benefit from upward revisions to January PMIs.
CAD is the lagged as USD/CAD continued its rebound from sub-1.3300 and y-t-d low, while the AUD suffers some contagion from a Yuan retreat.
Crude benchmarks are choppy as the contracts trimmed their earlier modest gains, while complex-specific news flow has been rather light in the European morning.
Spot gold is flat intraday but with a downside bias despite the dollar waning throughout the European morning.
Base metals are mostly lower whilst copper bucks the trend; LME copper tested levels close to USD 9,050/t (vs high 9,091/t) before finding some support.
Russia’s Kremlin said the EU embargo on Russian petroleum products will further unbalance energy market, according to Reuters.
BoE’s Chief Economics Pill said the UK has had some better times as of late, he is confident yesterday’s hike was necessary and appropriate, and there is still a lot of policy in the pipeline. Pill said the MPC has changed language quite substantially and the MPC’s job is to return inflation to the target and hold it over the medium term. He said he does not want to steer market rates on a day-to-day basis and they have to be prepared for shocks. He said it is important to guard against the possibility of doing too much. He has reasonably high confidence we will see inflation fall this year, focus is on whether inflation declined further ahead, and the notion of whether we are in a recession or not may vary throughout the year, via Times Radio.
ECB’s Simkus said inflation has probably peaked but core has yet to do so; 50bps hike in March may not be the last half-point move. He said a rate hike in May is possible, could be 25bps or 50bps but hardly 75bps. Rate reduction this year is unlikely but possible next year if the situation changes. Inflation trends are positive and approaching the terminal rate, according to Reuters and Bloomberg.
ECB’s Kazimir said March hike will not bring rates to peak. ECB will decide how many hikes take place beyond March, and fears that inflation could stay at levels too high. He said the fight against inflation is far from won.
ECB’s Rehn said the Governing Council intends to raise rates by 50bsp in March, via Twtter.
ECB’s Muller said core inflation is a cause for concern, via Bloomberg.
ECB’s Wunsch said a 25bps or 50bps rate hike is possible; will not go from 50bps in March to zero in May, and adds that 3.5% terminal rate is the minimum. He said core inflation remains persistent. He said Thursday’s decision was hawkish, market reaction was surprising.
ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: 2023 inflation nudged higher to 5.9%, 2025 seen just above target at 2.1%.
NOTABLE DATA
EU Producer Prices YY (Dec) 24.6% vs. Exp. 22.5% (Prev. 27.1%, Rev. 27.0%)
EU Producer Prices MM (Dec) 1.1% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.9%, Rev. -1.0%)
EU S&P Global Composite Final PMI (Jan) 50.3 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.2)
EU S&P Global Services Final PMI (Jan) 50.8 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 50.7)
UK Composite PMI Final (Jan) 48.5 vs. Exp. 47.8 (Prev. 47.8)
UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Final (Jan) 48.7 vs. Exp. 48 (Prev. 48)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US CFTC said the weekly commitments of traders report will be delayed due to the ransomware attack on ION Trading UK, according to Reuters.
Apple Inc (AAPL) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 1.88 (exp. 1.94), Revenue 117.15bln (exp. 121.1bln), Products 96.39bln (exp. 98.98bln), iPhone 65.78bln (exp. 68.3bln), Mac 7.74bln (exp. 9.72bln), iPad 9.40bln (exp. 7.78bln). Co. said Q2 2023 revenue growth will be higher than the previous year and it sees a 5% impact from FX rates in Q2, while it expects iPhone revenue growth to accelerate in Q2 compared to Q1. Shares are lower by 3.3% pre-market.
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 1.05 (exp. 1.18), Revenue 76.05bln (exp. 76.53bln). Google advertising 59.04bln (exp. 60.64bln). Significant work underway to improve all aspects of cost structure, in support of investments in highest growth priorities. Shares are lower by 4.1% pre-market.
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 0.03 (exp. 0.18), Revenue 149.2bln (exp. 145.42bln).AWS net sales USD 21.38bln (exp. 21.76bln). Co. said in the short-term, it faces an uncertain economy but remain quite optimistic about the long-term opportunities for the Co. Shares are lower by 5.5% pre-market.
Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) Q1 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.37 (exp. 2.34), Revenue 9.46bln (exp. 9.6bln).Shares are lower by 3.9% pre-market.
Tesla (TSLA) prelim Jan deliveries 66.1k vs. prev. M/M 55.8k, according to prelim CPCA. Shares are lower by 0.9% pre-market.
Bitcoin trades flat in European hours on either side of USD 23,500 awaitng the US NFP.
GEOPOLITICS
US is tracking a suspected Chinese spy balloon which entered US airspace a couple of days ago which US military officials recommended to not shoot down because of safety risks, while President Biden was briefed regarding the spy balloon and asked the military to present options, according to a senior administration official cited by Reuters. It was later reported that Canada’s Department of National Defence was monitoring a possible 2nd balloon incident.
Chinese Foreign Ministry, on the US Pentagon suspecting a Chinese spy balloon over US, said speculation and hype are not conducive until the facts are clear, according to Reuters.
US CIA Director Burns said China is the biggest geopolitical challenge that the US faces and the CIA assessed that Chinese President Xi has been a little sobered by Ukraine but has serious focus and ambition on Taiwan, according to Reuters.
Chinese Foreign Ministry said there is no news to release at this time on US Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China, according to Reuters.
Secretaries of Security Councils of Central Asia, Pakistan, India, China are to meet on Afghanistan in Moscow next week, according to Tass.
Reports of air raid sirens in Kyiv before EU-Ukraine summit started, according to AFP.
Russia’s Kremlin has rejected reports that the US offered Russia a secret peace plan on Ukraine, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mixed as participants digested the latest bout of central bank rate hikes and a slew of earnings releases, while strong Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI data also failed to inspire.
ASX 200 was led by healthcare and real estate, while the top-weighted financial sector also benefitted amid reports of early merger talks between regional lenders Bank of Queensland and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank.
Nikkei 225 briefly breached the 27,500 level as earnings remained in focus with Sony among the best performers after it reported higher 9-month profits, as well as raised its FY net guidance and PS5 sales target.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. weakened despite the easing of border restrictions between mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, while the rebound in Chinese Caixin PMI data also failed to spur risk appetite after the bout of global central bank policy tightening and with China’s Commerce Ministry warning that the nation’s imports and exports face an extremely severe environment on slowing external demand.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Hong Kong Macau Affairs Office said will drop cross-border restrictions between the mainland, Hong Kong and Macau, as well as end pre-arrival PCR testing for some travellers and will resume group tours effective February 6th. Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee also announced that all border points between mainland China and Hong Kong are to resume without quotas on travel, according to Reuters.
Chinese policymakers are planning on supporting domestic demand in 2023 but are unlikely to “splash out” on direct consumer subsidies, keeping their focus on investment, according to Reuters sources.
China’s Cabinet stated that China’s economy still faces difficult and challenges, according to state media, adding that China’s economic operations are recovering, and will consolidate and expand economic recovery momentum, via Reuters.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Jan) 52.9 vs Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 48.0)
Chinese Caixin Composite PMI (Jan) 51.1 (Prev. 48.3)
1.c FRIDAY/ THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.34 PTS OR .68% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 297.89 PTS OR 1.36% /The Nikkei closed UP 107.41 PTS OR 0.33% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .56% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7373 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.7431// /Oil UP TO 75.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 82.31 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/
3c CHINA /
CHINA/USA/CANADA
Chinese spy balloon tracked in Montana airspace near ICBM fields. Why doesn’t the USA shoot the spy balloon down?
(zerohedge)
High-Altitude Chinese Spy Balloon Tracked In Montana Airspace Near ICBM Fields
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 06:55 AM
US military commanders have advised President Biden against shooting down a Chinese spy balloon flying over the US.
Reuters said the US military took “custody” of the “high-altitude surveillance balloon” and deployed military aircraft, including stealth fighter jets, to observe it.
Such balloons operate at an altitude of 15-22 miles, well above commercial air traffic. The balloon’s size is estimated to be equivalent to three buses.
“The United States government has detected and is tracking a high-altitude surveillance balloon that is over the continental United States right now,” Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder told reporters Thursday.
“The balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground,” Ryder continued.
Right now, the spy balloon appears to be occupying Montana airspace. This alarmed the state’s Republican Senator Steve Daines, who sent an alarming letter to the Department of Defense (DOD). He said the spy balloon is a “concerning event”: because Montana airspace includes “Malmstrom Air Force Base (AFB) and the United State’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fields.”
Daines wrote that given “the serious nature of the event,” he is “requesting a full security briefing from the administration on this situation.”
“It is vital to establish the flight path of this balloon, any compromised US national security assets, and all telecom or IT infrastructure on the ground within the US that this spy balloon was utilizing,” he continued.
“As you know, Montana plays a vital national security role by housing nuclear missile silos at Malmstrom AFB,” the senator said.
Separately, Canada’s defense ministry is monitoring a “potential second incident” but declined to give further details.
News of the spy balloon followed CIA Director William Burns’ speech at a Georgetown University event, where he called China the “biggest geopolitical challenge” facing the West.
end
Pentagon Refuses To Shoot Down Suspected Chinese Spy Balloon Hovering Over Montana for Days
Robert Hryniak
10:12 AM (31 minutes ago)
to
Why is there no command to shoot this down??????? And Blinken is going to China to lecture them about drug smuggling into the US. Doe he not know that in Mexico China manufactures drugs to send to America and Canada via Mexican gangs in factories protected by Chinese Troops???? Any anyone in gong show show, heard of defending borders? This whole administration is a farce and not worthy being a dog catcher let alone pretending they can administer a nation.
The Eu responds in kind to Biden’s plan to fund new green energy//row ridiculous. Also the plan is to give companies money so they would not move to the States. (Who on earth would want to move to the States?)
The EU’s Response To Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act Is Finally Here
Following the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S., pressure grew on the EU to introduce its own legislation to help fund the clean energy push on the continent.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant energy security issues in Europe have only added to the pressure on EU politicians to solve the bloc’s energy problems.
The EC’s new draft proposal is designed to encourage companies to remain in the EU rather than move operations to the U.S. to take advantage of IRA-related benefits.
When President Biden introduced his Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) last summer, he surprised the world with the extent of the climate commitments within it While supposedly aimed at inflation reduction, the legislation also provides extensive political support and funding for the green transition, providing tax cuts, subsidies, and other incentives for companies looking to use cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels. The EU has long been hailed as the leader in the switch to renewable energy, encouraging other countries worldwide to follow in its footsteps when it comes to climate pledges and policies. However, following the introduction of the IRA, pressure on the EU grew to introduce its own far-reaching, region-wide climate policy. After several months, it appears that the EU is ready to launch a transition policy that will provide the funding needed to keep up with the U.S. in the race to green. The EU has announced plans to reduce restrictions on tax credits for renewable energy projects in response to Biden’s IRA. Following mounting public pressure to expand its climate policy following the introduction of the new U.S. law, the European Commission (EC) has stated that it aims to loosen state aid rules to encourage greater investment in production facilities in the green energy industry. However, this kind of major policy shift requires broad support from its 27 member states, which often slows down the introduction of new laws.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian energy, the EU and many other parts of the world have experienced severe energy shortages and rising consumer costs. This has led to greater pressure from the public and policymakers to accelerate the green transition, to ensure the future of the region’s energy security. The EC’s draft proposal reportedly proposes the redirection of some of the $869.8 billion in Covid-19 recovery funding to green tax credits. It states: “The provisions on tax benefits would enable member states to align their national fiscal incentives on a common scheme, and thereby offer greater transparency and predictability to businesses across the EU.”
The EC appears to be following in the footsteps of President Biden, having seen a flurry of activity in the green energy industry following the introduction of the IRA. The leader of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen, stated in January at the World Economic Forum that the EU is planning to mobilize state aid and a sovereign fund for renewable energy companies through the introduction of a new Net-Zero Industry Act or Green Deal Industrial Plan. The introduction of an expansive new climate policy is hoped to encourage companies to remain in the EU rather than moving operations to the U.S., where they may be eligible to receive tax credits and other incentives for using renewable energy in their operations.
This news will be encouraging for renewable energy firms that have been discouraged from expanding operations in recent months. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU imposed revenue caps on wind and solar firms to protect consumers facing rising energy costs. In contrast, the IRA offers tax credits that boost U.S. wind and solar project profitability, making the U.S. a more attractive environment to develop new projects.
At present, EU state aid rules do not allow countries to provide direct support for national companies, a rule that the EC is open to temporarily adapting to accelerate the green transition and boost the EU’s energy security. Explaining the plan, von der Leyen stated: “To keep European industry attractive, there is a need to be competitive with the offers and incentives that are currently available outside the EU.” However, for it to become a reality, the Net-Zero Industry Act needs to achieve broad support from EU member states.
Pierre Tardieu, chief policy officer at lobby group WindEurope, believesthe EC’s plan demonstrates “a conscious decision to emulate…rather than challenge” the IRA.
He believes it to be an extension of the 2022 REPowerEU strategy, which aims to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian energy and speed up the green transition. The new climate Act would improve permitting procedures for clean-tech product sites across the region and simplify state-aid rules to provide both grants and subsidies. It would also help Europe to solidify its position in the global green energy transition, not only ensuring that it meets its climate targets but that the U.S. does not become the leading green energy hub for energy and manufacturing firms. However, clear action on von der Leyen’s aim of making “Europe the home of clean tech and industrial innovation” has yet to be taken.
The introduction of a far-reaching climate policy by the EU would help position the region at the center of the global transition away from fossil fuels to renewable alternatives. Following the launch of President Biden’s IRA, the unveiling of a new policy from the EC would not be surprising, as it hopes to make the EU a favorable and competitive region for the development of green energy operations and technologies. Further announcements will likely be made to expand upon von der Leyen’s aims over the next few months, with a new EU climate policy on the horizon.
.
END
France
France hit by strikes and protests as they continue. The French have outrage at the hiking of the retirement age to 64
(zerohedge)
France Hit By Strikes, Protests Amid Outrage At Hiking Retirement Age To 64
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 04:15 AM
French labor unions have been holding several days of mass strikes and protests against raising the retirement age, in a test of the momentum driving defiance to Emmanuel Macron’s signature economic reform… which is hardly surprising: France is one of the biggest “western” bastions of socialism.
As Bloomberg reports, the country’s rail operator, SNCF, said only one-third of high-speed TGVs were running and urged people to work from home. Subway and commuter trains serving the capital were severely disrupted, with limited service on most lines. Many schools were also closed.
Protesters also blocked three oil refineries operated by TotalEnergies SE and strikes by Electricite de France SA’s workforce took more than 3 gigawatts of nuclear-reactor capacity offline. Air France-KLM’s French arm said it had scrapped 10% of short-haul flights.
Macron, already very unpopular, has faced the biggest protests yet of his time as president on Jan. 19 when the country’s usually fragmented unions united to bring more than 1.1 million people onto the streets. Polls carried out since suggest opposition is growing: a Feb 1 poll carried out by BVA for RTL which surveyed 1,001 people showed that 60% of participants oppose pension reform, up 2 points.
Speaking to French television channels at the start of the Paris March on Tuesday, CGT union head Philippe Martinez said there were more people in the streets than Jan. 19.
“The president and the government must hear the discontent and change their plan,” Martinez said, and perhaps he is right: after all, why work when the ECB can just print and make everyone super wealthy.
According to a government count mid-way through the day, fewer public sector workers went on strike than Jan. 19. Martinez said many chose not to this time in order to preserve their wages, while a bigger turnout of white collar, private sector workers made up the numbers.
Hilariously, France is freaking out about working for two extra years when it has one of the lowest effective retirement ages across the entire developed world.Source: CEPR
“It is true that the French are relatively well-off compared to other countries but still we need to protect our system,” said Jean-Philippe, a 47 year-old mechanical engineer who declined to give his family name. “The reasons given by the government are completely fake.” And the reasons not to work given by lazy French workers are… what?
Opponents of raising the minimum retirement age point to 1995, when then President Jacques Chirac abandoned plans to change the pension system after prolonged disruption. More recently, governments have stood their ground, notably in 2010 when Nicolas Sarkozy raised the lower limit to 62 despite months of unrest.
Macron says reform is essential to avoid deficits in the coming years, especially as public finances are already under pressure from massive spending during the Covid pandemic and energy crisis. The International Monetary Fund said on Monday that the reform could help increase labor supply — another key objective of his government, given relatively low employment rates among older workers.
The National Assembly is due to start debating Macron’s bill next week after the social affairs commission completes a review of more than 7,000 amendments. While the government says minor modifications are possible, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has insisted the increase of age thresholds is “no longer negotiable.”
The main labor unions will meet in Paris on Tuesday evening to decide their next steps, with further days of action all but inevitable as they seek to keep pressure on lawmakers debating the proposed legislation in coming weeks.
“Madame Prime Minister, you are a reasonable and respectable woman: listen to the discontent with 64 years that is everywhere,” Laurent Berger, leader of the moderate CFDT union, said on France 2 television on Monday. “Back down on this measure and we can talk again.”
As Bloomberg adds, Macron’s task is made harder after he lost an absolute majority in elections last year. His government has tried to secure the support of the conservative Republicains, who have traditionally backed increasing the retirement age, but some have expressed doubts since the first day of protests.
Ultimately, the Macron government could use special constitutional provisions to bypass a vote in parliament, but in doing so would expose itself to a possible no-confidence vote and risk further stoking the anger of protesters.
END
NORWAY
This is good! Norway finds rare earth metals. In concentration this could make Europe less dependent on China. However we are years away
from development
(zerohedge)
Norway Finds Rare Earth Metals That Could Make Europe Less Dependent On China
Norwegian scientists have made a discovery of rare earth metals in the country’s northern region. The findings have the potential to transform the country’s economy and secure its place as a major player in the global market for high-tech and green technology. Furthermore, the findings could make Europe less dependent on China for the critical metals.
Karl Kristensen, a consultant for Bergfald Environmental Consultants, says that the green shift in economics will only multiply the world’s dependence on these materials. He warned that China has almost complete control of the market for rare earth metals in his lecture on the topic during the KÅKÅnomics economics festival in Stavanger, Norway, in October 2022.
The discovery in Norway was made during a routine survey of the region and was confirmed through extensive drilling and analysis.
The deposits are believed to be among the largest of their kind in the world, and the potential for further discoveries in the area is significant.
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) was responsible for conducting the research that led to the find. “The NPD has built up expertise over many years, in part through a number of expeditions. We’ve mapped relevant areas, collected data, and taken large volumes of mineral samples,” said Kjersti Dahle, director, technology, analysis and coexistence at the NPD.
NPD’s research shows that there is a large area of the Norwegian continental shelf with significant mineral resources, particularly in the deep sea, where several of these minerals are concentrated. The Norwegian government and NPD are now working together to create the necessary framework for a sustainable and responsible exploration and utilization of these minerals. The focus is on ensuring the protection of the marine environment, preserving the diversity of marine life, and mitigating the impact of the mineral exploration and extraction activities.
The discovery of these minerals on the Norwegian continental shelf is seen as a major step forward in the country’s efforts to reduce its dependency on mineral imports and to become a leading player in the production of sustainable technologies. The NPD’s report will now be used as a basis for further research and exploration activities in the coming years.
“Of the metals found on the seabed in the study area, magnesium, niobium, cobalt, and rare earth minerals are found on the European Commission’s list of critical minerals,” the NPD said in its statement on the research.
Rare Earth Metal Supply Chain in the West
The Norwegian find is a result of the West rebuilding its supply chain for rare earth minerals. It follows an announcement from LKAB, a Swedish mining company, earlier in January 2023. LKAB announced the discovery of Europe’s largest deposit of rare earth oxides in the country’s far north. The discovery was described as positive for not only the company, the region, and Sweden, but also for Europe and the climate.
To reduce dependence on China, Western countries are investing in exploration, mining, and processing of these minerals. The United States, for example, is funding projects to extract rare earths from coal and phosphates and is also working on recycling technology to reduce the need for new minerals. Europe is making efforts to secure its own supply of rare earths and is funding research into new technology to extract and process these minerals. The rebuilding of the rare earths supply chain is a step in reducing dependence on China and ensuring a sustainable future for technology and green energy solutions.
end
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/CHINA/TAIWAN/IRAN
This is a must read.
Pepe Escobar…
Escobar: The Trials And Tribulations Of The Collective West
Sit back, relax and enjoy a race to the bottom of the Grand Canyon. The only question is who will get there first: the EU, NATO, or both…
One may be excused to imagine all sorts of amusement games unrolling at the HQ of the Russian General Staff as The Empire and NATO go literally bonkers. What crazy stunt will they come up with next – short of WWIII?
Here is a delightful put down of NATO’s dementia praecox. Everything so far has failed, from “crippling sanctions” to all sorts of wunderwaffen, while the whole Global South marvels at the exploits of Wagner PMC – now configured as the planet’s top urban fighting machine.
CIA mouthpiece Washington Post duly released how Washington, once again, had the Liver Sausage Chancellor Scholz for breakfast, lunch and dinner. The idea was floated by Secretary of State Tony Blinken: let’s announce we will deliver M1 Abrams to Ukraine in a hazy, unspecified future, thus providing cover for Scholz to release the Leopards now.
Don’t you just love German sovereignty in action?
Every military analyst with an IQ over room temperature knows all those Leopards will be duly incinerated – or better yet, captured, and dissected by Russian military specialists.
So what happens next is yet another vector of the – very successful so far – U.S.-unleashed German de-industrualization racket: the Americans will invade the German industrial military complex with their “much improved” Abrams – which may perhaps arrive in 2024, when only a rump Ukraine may still exist, or never arrive at all. So no need for the Abrams to prove themselves in actual combat – as in being captured and/or incinerated.
Rumors in Washington advance that the U.S. “strategy” in Ukraine – extensively detailed by endless think tank reports – had to be adapted. It’s not about “defeating Russia” anymore, but providing Kiev with the means to “scare” Russia. The Russian General Staff must be trembling in their boots.
Meanwhile, in real life, nearly every possible scenario gamed in Washington and Brussels finishes with NATO like a giant, armoured version of Wile E. Coyote plunging to the depths of the Grand Canyon. And that happens even if the much ballyhooded “Big Arrow” Russian offensive starts in a few days or weeks, or never starts at all.
Arguably the Russian General Staff has concluded a long time ago there’s no point in reducing Ukraine to rubble in a matter of hours – something they could easily accomplish. Thus the fabled mincing machine approach – offering no excuses for NATO to “escalate” (which they continue to do anyway, as Jens “War is Peace” Stoltenberg is so fond of parroting).
The trick is that NATO’s escalation overdrive, as it happens, is somewhat controlled by the Russian General Staff, which is always calculating which optimal maneuvers will consume NATO’s military hardware faster. Call it a Russian version of the popular axiom “frog in a boiling pot doesn’t realize it’s being cooked until it croaks.”
Attacking Russia-China-Iran
Absolute desperation is now graphically extrapolating into attacks on Iran. Both Russia and China have Iran as their key ally in West Asia for the whole, complex process of Eurasia integration; strategic partnerships interlink the trio.
So attacking the Ministry of Defense in Isfahan with drones – total fail – and bombing an IRGC convoy of humanitarian aid crossing from Iraq to Syria is a serious U.S.-Israel-coordinated provocation.
Essentially these are also attacks against Russia and China. Israel cannot lift its hand or foot without U.S. permission. Iranian intel may be able to establish how the Straussian neo-con and neoliberal-con cabal in charge of U.S. foreign policy authorized if not ordered these attacks, which of course are directly connected to NATO’s desperation in Ukraine.
When in doubt, just come back to Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski: “Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia and perhaps, Iran, an ‘anti-hegemonic’ coalition united not by ideology but by contemporary grievances. It would be reminiscent in scale and scope of the challenge once posed by the Sino-Soviet bloc.”
And mirroring Ukraine/Russia there’s of course Taiwan/China.
As Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar has extensively explained, if Taiwan manufactures chips for U.S. missiles Washington then sends to Taiwan for its “self-defense”, but Taiwan needs to wait because the missiles are needed in Ukraine instead, or chips can’t be shipped to the U.S. owing to a possible sea and air blockade imposed by China, the Americans will be operationally ill-equipped to support their two-front war against peer competitors Russia and China.
Bye bye Pax Americana. It’s the fear, actually paranoia, of a destroyed Taiwan – and the destruction in every scenario would be provoked by the Americans themselves – that has led the Straussian neo-con and neoliberal-con cabal to demand their chips be Made in USA.
On the energy front, since U.S. energy costs are low, Washington gambled that much of the deindustrialization of Germany would revert to American benefit. Yet since Iranian, Russian and Venezuelan oil prices are lower than the U.S., not much production may be shifting to the Hegemon: it will go to China.
To the bottom of the Grand Canyon!
The January 10 joint declaration between EU-NATO graphically shows how the EU is no more than the P.R. arm of NATO.
This NATO-EU joint mission consists in using all economic, political and military means to make sure the “jungle” always behaves according to the “rules-based international order” and accepts to be plundered ad infinitum by the “blooming garden”.
So in the end what’s left of “Europe”, when it’s NATO – actually Washington – that really rules?
“Europe”, according to relentless propaganda, means defending “our values” – as in peace, democracy and prosperity. The trick is that unelected elites forced the implicit identification of this imagined, practically sacred “Europe” with the European Union. And that’s how the EU has acquired a mythical identity.
Of course, in real life the EU – as in the real, politically organized “Europe” – has performed as a toxic instrument of division among European peoples.
Instead of peace, it has invested in all-out rabid war against Russia. The EU is arguably the most democratically irresponsible institution on the planet: spend a day in Brussels and you understand everything. And instead of prosperity, the EU has institutionalized austerity.
So sit back, relax and enjoy a race to the bottom of the Grand Canyon. The only question is who will get there first: the EU, NATO, or both.
END
RUSSIA
Russia is mustering 500,000 troops on Ukrainian borders ready for its final major offensive
(zerohedge)
Ukraine Says Russia Mustering 500,000 Troops On Borders For New Major Offensive
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 05:45 AM
The Ukrainian government is sounding the alarm ahead of the upcoming one-year Feb.24 anniversary of the Russian invasion, saying that Kremlin forces are amassing more troops on the border in preparation for a major new offensive. The warnings comes amid widespread reports that Russian forces are gearing up for an inevitable Spring offensive.
“Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments it is much more,” he said.
And separately, Yuriy Sak, a senior defense ministry official, told NBC News on Thursday that “We should understand that the threat of a new and another offensive will remain until we defeat Russia.”
Ukraine expects the attacks to happen from the east and south: “As their main forces are concentrated in the east, we do expect them to begin an offensive there, perhaps around Bakhmut,” Sak said.
And President Zelensky in his latest evening video address to the nation said, “The situation has become tougher” in the area, and further that “The enemy is trying to achieve at least something now to show that Russia has some chances on the anniversary of the invasion.”
Kiev and the US are also keeping a close watch on the recent Russian military drills in neighboring Belarus. “Russia is preparing for maximum escalation,” defense minister Danilov had also told UK media this week. “It is gathering everything possible, doing drills and training.”
If the assessments are accurate, the Kremlin likely wishes to keep its positive momentum strong amid an intense fight for Bakhmut, especially before the arrival of Western-supplied main battle tanks. Russia has warned it is prepared to escalate in response. Russian troops, including Wagner mercenaries, are on the brink of having the city encircled.
“Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization that is leading the assault in Ukraine’s east, said Wednesday that his forces had seized the village of Sacco and Vanzetti, north of Bakhmut,” writes The Wall Street Journal on Thursday. “Rybar, a Telegram channel linked to the Kremlin, said Thursday that Wagner was claiming territory on the contested east side of the city, expanding control around a sparkling-wine factory and a meat-processing plant.”
Total control of Bakhmut could make pacification of the whole of Donetsk much easier – though at the moment both the Russian and Ukrainian sides are suffering heavy losses.
end
RUSSIA//TURKEY.//THE WEST
Erdogan is probably right: giving tanks to Ukraine will only prolong the war and line the pockets of the West.
(the cradle)
Tanks For Ukraine Will Only Prolong War & “Line Pockets Of Gun Barons”: Erdogan
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has criticized the decision by his NATO allies to provide Ukraine with over 300 heavy tanks to prolong the war against Russia, calling it a “high-risk move.”
“I personally can’t say that sending tanks will resolve this issue,” Erdogan told state broadcaster TRT during a Wednesday interview. “This is a high-risk endeavor and will only line the pockets of gun barons,” he added.Via Reuters
The Turkish leader also said his nation would continue talks with both Russia and Ukraine as part of efforts to find a path to peace.
Erdogan’s criticism of his western allies is the latest show of discord between Ankara and NATO, as over the past year, Turkey has been holding up Sweden and Finland’s ascension to the war alliance. The two Nordic nations formally applied to join NATO last May, abandoning decades of neutrality. Any country joining NATO requires the unanimous approval of member states.
Tensions recently spiked between Ankara and Stockholm after Danish-Swedish extremist Rasmus Paludan burned copies of the Quran on two separate occasions last week.
“Despite warnings, Sweden turned a blind eye to the Quran burning, and police protected the perpetrators. Hate crimes against Muslims are not acceptable,” Erdogan said, adding that “an apology from Sweden won’t fix issues.”
Earlier on Wednesday, Erdogan said Turkiye “looks positively” on Finland’s application for NATO membership, but does not support Sweden’s bid.
“Sweden should not bother to try at this point. We will not say ‘yes’ to their NATO application as long as they allow burning of the Quran,” Erdogan said during a speech in parliament.
Last month, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told reporters that Stockholm wants to resume talks with Turkey. “Our collective message is that we want to call for calm, for reflection, for calm in the process so that we can return to functioning talks between Sweden, Finland, and Turkiye on our common NATO membership,” Kristersson told reporters.
end
//TURKEY/SWEDEN/FINLAND/NATO//RUSSIA/UKRAINE.USA
That is for sure: Turkey can forget about getting F 16’s if Sweden and Finland are blocked into NATO
(zerohedge)
Turkey Can Forget About Getting F-16s If Sweden, Finland NATO Bids Blocked: Senators
THURSDAY, FEB 02, 2023 – 08:10 PM
The United States is now threatening Turkey with holding more American-made fighter jets captive, this time over the Erdogan government’s refusal to allow Sweden into NATO.
Turkey starting in 2021 issued a formal request purchase 40 F-16 jets and about 80 modernization kits from the US, but a group of over two dozen US senators has said they are ready to block the sale if Turkey doesn’t ratify Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession protocols. Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
“Congress cannot consider future support for Türkiye, including the sale of F-16 fighter jets, until Türkiye completes ratification of the accession protocols,” the senators, led by Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), wrote in a letter to the president Thursday.
“Failure to ratify the protocols or present a timeline for ratification threatens the Alliance’s unity at a key moment in history, as Russia continues its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine,” the lawmakers stressed.
The White House appears favorable to the Congressional members’ stance regarding getting tougher on Turkey while Ankara blocks Sweden’s NATO membership:
“We have made the same point to our Turkish allies … that we need this Congress’s support moving forward for the security enhancements that we think that they need, as allies, F16s, some of them are old, but that this Congress is likely to look far more favorably on that after ratification,” [Victoria] Nuland said, urging senators to “keep making your points and we will too.”
But Turkey has never been easily pressured by Washington – and this is perhaps given the Turkish military remains the second largest in NATO, and the fact that Turkey plays host to American military bases.
With the F-16 hold-up now having dragged on a couple of years, Turkey has long flirted with the idea of acquiring Russian-made Su-35s and Su-57 fighter jets, causing alarm among NATO allies. Turkey has argued it’s a problem of Washington’s own making, given the 2019 decision to boot Turkey from the Lockheed F-35 program.
Lately, Erdogan has said Turkey looks favorably on Finland joining the alliance, while at the same time suspending accession talks with Swedish officials, especially after last month’s Quran-burning incident in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm.
END
TURKEY/GLOBE
Interesting: 6 countries temporarily close Istanbul consulate over security threats
(zerohedge)
Half-Dozen Countries Temporarily Close Istanbul Consulates Over ‘Security Threats’
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 02:45 AM
Large-scale protests in Turkey over the recent Quran-burnings by a far right activist in Sweden have resulted in multiple Western countries this week issuing travel alerts for their citizens in Turkey.
Additionally some half-dozen consulates in Istanbul have announced temporary closures due to security threats this week. German and Dutch consulates closed their doors Wednesday, and possibly further into the week, citing unspecified “security reasons”. The Dutch Consulate General in the Beyoğlu district announced extra precautions due to “potential protests” and “increasing threat against western targets.”
The Swiss consulate general in Istanbul on Thursday is the latest tosuspend operations – the sixth country to do so. So far Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK have temporarily shuttered their consulates.
Turkey is not happy, complaining that the unnecessary closures are severely damaging tourism, and that the dramatic step to close consulates has been done without evidence of said threats.
Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu charged Thursday that Western nations have launched “a psychological war” and that extra precautions amount to a propaganda stunt. Further, he was quoted as saying:
“On a day when we declared our aim of (attracting) 60 million tourists, at a time when 51.5 million tourists arrived and we obtained $46 billion in tourism revenue, they were on the verge of starting a new psychological warfare (against) Turkey,” said Soylu, who is known for his anti-Western rhetoric.
Turkey had earlier issued its own blanket warning to its nationals abroad, saying that growing ‘anti-Islamic’ protests in the West constitute a severe security threat, and that Turks should avoid crowds and public gathers where these occur.
Protests have continued across various Muslim nations following the late January Quran-burning in Stockholm, which took place in front of Turkey’s embassy. Turkish officials are outraged that Swedish authorities didn’t shut it down, but instead offered police protection against counter-demonstrators.
President Erdogan has since warned Sweden that it shouldn’t expect to enter NATO. But Sweden responded this week that its application process should have nothing to do with religion. As for the Quran-burning incident (which has now happened at least twice), Stockholm leaders said they find it morally reprehensible, but Sweden’s robust free speech laws protects such demonstrations.
END
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
oh my goodness; Project Veritas released this damaging video of Pfizer director Jordon. This is the 2nd tape released!
(Project Veritas)
‘The Scandal Would Be Enormous’: Pfizer Director Worried About Vax-Induced Menstrual Irregularities
THURSDAY, FEB 02, 2023 – 07:30 PM
Project Veritas on Thursday released a new segmentof undercover footage of Pfizer director Jordon Walker in which the Director of R&D within the company’s mRNA operation expressed concern over how the COVID-19 vaccine may be affecting women’s reproductive health.
“There is something irregular about the menstrual cycles. So, people will have to investigate that down the line,” Walker told an undercover journalist he thought he was on a date with.
“The [COVID] vaccine shouldn’t be interfering with that [menstrual cycles]. So, we don’t really know,” he added.
Walker also hopes we don’t discover that “somehow this mRNA lingers in the body and like — because it has to be affecting something hormonal to impact menstrual cycles,” adding “I hope we don’t discover something really bad down the line…If something were to happen downstream and it was, like, really bad? I mean, the scale of that scandal would be enormous.”
Mid December Thailand Royal Princess, Bajrakrtiyabha shortly after receiving her booster shot fell into a coma. The authorities told the king that it was a bacterial infection. You will recall that very early, a Thai Phd/MD Dr S.Bahkdi warned people not to take the vaccines. This was around Feb 2020and I have been following Dr Bahkdi on a continual basis. Dr Bahkdi reached out to the Thai government and Royal family and he quickly gained favour and he was invited to speak to them. He flew from Kiel Germany to Thailand and presented mountains of evidence of fraud committed by Pfizer. His main emphasis was on the huge clotting mechanism perpetrated by the vaccine and it was this fact that caused the Princess to fall into a coma. The royal family was aghast. They now are cancelling the Pfizer/Thai contract and they want their money back so as to pay its people for the crimes of Pfizer as the contract is null and void on fraud i.e. fraud eviserates the contract.
The officials brought in four outside experts to discuss whether the protection gained after recovering from COVID-19—known as natural immunity—should count as one or more vaccine doses.
“There was interest in several people in the administration in hearing basically the opinions of four immunologists in terms of what we thought about … natural infection as contributing to protection against moderate to severe disease, and to what extent that should influence dosing,” Dr. Paul Offit, one of the experts, told The Epoch Times.
Offit and another expert took the position that the naturally immune need fewer doses. The other two experts argued natural immunity shouldn’t count as anything.
The discussion did not lead to a change in U.S. vaccination policy, which has never acknowledged post-infection protection. Fauci and the other U.S. officials who heard from the experts have repeatedly downplayed that protection, claiming that it is inferior to vaccine-bestowed immunity. Most studies on the subject indicate the opposite.
The meeting, held in October 2021, was briefly discussed before on a podcast. The Epoch Times has independently confirmed the meeting took place, identified all of the participants, and uncovered other key details.
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University who did not participate in the meeting, criticized how such a consequential discussion took place behind closed doors with only a few people present.
Fauci, the head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden until the end of 2022
Dr. Vivek Murthy, the U.S. surgeon general
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the head of U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Dr. Francis Collins, head of the U.S. National Institutes of Health, which includes the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, until December 2021
Dr. Bechara Choucair, the White House vaccine coordinator until November 2021
From outside the government:
Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and an adviser to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on vaccines
Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and a former member of Biden’s COVID-19 advisory board
Akiko Iwasaki, professor of immunobiology and molecular, cellular, and developmental biology at Yale University
Dr. Peter Hotez, co-director of Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development and dean of the Baylor College of Medicine’s School of Tropical Medicine
Fauci and Murthy decided to hold the meeting, according to emails The Epoch Times obtained.
“Would you be available tonight from 9-9:30 for a call with a few other scientific colleagues on infection-induced immunity? Tony and I just discussed and were hoping to do this sooner rather than later if possible,” Murthy wrote in one missive to Fauci, Walensky, and Collins.
All three quickly said they could make it.
Walensky asked who would be there.
Murthy listed the participants. “I think you know all of them right?” he said.
During the meeting, Offit put forth his position—that natural immunity should count as two doses.
At the time, the CDC recommended three shots—a two-dose primary series and a booster—for many Americans 18 and older, soon expanding that advice to all adults, even though trials of the boosters only analyzed immunogenicity and efficacy among those without evidence of prior infection.
Osterholm sided with Offit, but thought that having recovered from COVID-19 should only count as a single dose.
“I added my voice at the meeting to count an infection as equivalent to a dose of vaccine! I’ve always believed hybrid immunity likely provides the most protection,” Osterholm told The Epoch Times via email.
Hybrid immunity refers to getting a vaccine after recovering from COVID-19.
Some papers havefound vaccination after recovery boosts antibodies, which are believed to be a correlate of protection. Other research hasshown that the naturally immune have a higher risk of side effects than those who haven’t recovered from infection. Some experts believe the risk is worth the benefit but others do not.
Hotez and Iwasaki, meanwhile, made the case that natural immunity should not count as any dose—as has been the case in virtually the entire United States since the COVID-19 vaccines were first rolled out.
Iwasaki referred to a British preprint study, soon after published in Nature, that concluded, based on survey data, that the protection from the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines was heightened among people with evidence of prior infection. She also noted a study she worked on that found the naturally immune had higher antibody titers than the vaccinated, but that the vaccinated “reached comparable levels of neutralization responses to the ancestral strain after the second vaccine dose.” The researchers also discovered T cells—thought to protect against severe illness—were boosted by vaccination.
There’s a “clear benefit” to boosting regardless of prior infection, Iwasaki, who has since received more than $2 million in grants from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), told participants after the meeting in an email obtained by The Epoch Times. Hotez received $789,000 in grants from the NIH in fiscal year 2020, and has received other grants totaling millions in previous years. Offit, who co-invented the rotavirus vaccine, received $3.5 million in NIH grants from 1985 through 2004.
Hotez declined interview requests through a spokesperson. Iwasaki did not respond to requests for comment.
In public, Hotez repeatedly portrayed natural immunity as worse than vaccination, including citing the widely criticized CDC paper, which drew from just two months of testing in a single state.
In one post on Twitter on Oct. 29, 2021, he referred to another CDC study, which concluded that the naturally immune were five times as likely to test positive compared to vaccinated people with no prior infection, and stated: “Still more evidence, this time from @CDCMMWR showing that vaccine-induced immunity is way better than infection and recovery, what some call weirdly ‘natural immunity’. The antivaccine and far right groups go ballistic, but it’s the reality.”
That same day, the CDC issued a “science brief” that detailed the agency’s position on natural immunity versus the protection from vaccines. The brief, which has never been updated, says that available evidence shows both the vaccinated and naturally immune “have a low risk of subsequent infection for at least 6 months” but that “the body of evidence for infection-induced immunity is more limited than that for vaccine-induced immunity.”
Evidence shows that vaccination after infection, or hybrid immunity, “significantly enhances protection and further reduces risk of reinfection” and is the foundation of the CDC’s recommendations, the agency said.
Several months later, the CDC acknowledged that natural immunity was superior to vaccination against the Delta variant, which was displaced in late 2021 by Omicron. The CDC, which has made misleading representations before on the evidence supporting vaccination of the naturally immune, did not respond to a request for comment regarding whether the agency will ever update the brief.
Iwasaki had initially been open to curbing the number of doses for the naturally immune—”I think this supports the idea of just giving one dose to people who had covid19,” she said in response to one Twitter post in early 2021, which is restricted from view—but later came to argue that each person who is infected has a different immune response, and that the natural immunity, even if strong initially, wanes over time.
Osterholm has knocked people who claim natural immunity is weak or non-existent, but has also claimed that vaccine-bestowed immunity is better. Osterholm also changed the stance he took in the meeting just several months later, saying in February 2022 that “we’ve got to make three doses the actual standard” while also “trying to understand what kind of immunity we get from a previous infection.”
Offit has been the leading critic on the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, which advises U.S. regulators on vaccines, over their authorizations of COVID-19 boosters. Offit has said boosters are unnecessary for the young and healthy because they don’t add much to the primary series. He also criticized regulators for authorizing updated shots without consulting the committee and absent clinical data. Two of the top U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officials resigned over the booster push. No FDA officials were listed on invitations to the secret meeting on natural immunity.
Fauci and Walensky Downplay Natural Immunity
Fauci and Walensky, two of the most visible U.S. health officials during the pandemic, have repeatedly downplayed natural immunity.
Fauci, who said in an email in March 2020 that he assumed there would be “substantial immunity post infection,” would say later that natural immunity was real but that the durability was uncertain. He noted the studies finding higher antibody levels from hybrid immunity.
In September 2021, months after claiming that vaccinated people “can feel safe that they are not going to get infected,” Fauci said that he did not have “a really firm answer” on whether the naturally immune should get vaccinated.
“It is conceivable that you got infected, you’re protected—but you may not be protected for an indefinite period of time,” Fauci said on CNN when pressed on the issue. “So I think that is something that we need to sit down and discuss seriously.”
After the meeting, Fauci would say that natural immunity and vaccine-bestowed immunity both wane, and that people should get vaccinated regardless of prior infection to boost their protection.
Walensky, before she became CDC director, signed a document called the John Snow Memorandum in response to the Great Barrington Declaration, which Bhattacharya coauthored. The declaration called for focused protection of the elderly and otherwise infirm, stating, “The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk.”
The memorandum, in contrast, said there was “no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection” and supported the harsh lockdown measures that had been imposed in the United States and elsewhere.
In March 2021, after becoming director, Walensky released recommendations that the naturally immune get vaccinated, noting that there was “substantial durability” of protection six months after infection but that “rare cases of reinfection” had been reported.
Walensky hyped the CDC study on natural immunity in August 2021, and the second study in October 2021. But when the third paper came out concluding natural immunity was superior, she did not issue a statement. Walensky later told a blog that the study found natural immunity provided strong protection, “perhaps even more so than those who had been vaccinated and not yet boosted.”
But, because it came before Omicron, she said, “it’s not entirely clear how that protection works in the context of Omicron and boosting.”
Walensky, Murthy, and Collins did not respond to requests for interviews. Fauci, who stepped down from his positions in late 2022, could not be reached.
Murthy and Collins also portrayed natural immunity as inferior. “From the studies about natural immunity, we are seeing more and more data that tells us that while you get some protection from natural infection, it’s not nearly as strong as what you get from the vaccine,” Murthy said on CNN about two months before the meeting. Collins, in a series of blog posts, highlighted the studies showing higher antibody levels after vaccination and urged people to get vaccinated. He also voiced support for vaccine mandates.
Dr. Todd Lee of McGill University in Canada is one such doctor who rejected the boosters. Lee contracted the B11529 omicron strain despite being triple-vaccinated.
“I have taken my last COVID-19 vaccine with RCT (randomized clinical trial) level evidence it will reduce my risk of severe disease,” he tweeted. Lee alluded to the lack of results for the updated boosters, which were cleared for use in both the U.S. and Canada in the fall of last year based on data from mice experiments.
“Pay close attention to note that this isn’t anti-vaccine sentiment. This is ‘provide evidence of benefit to justify ongoing use,’ which is very different. It is only fair for a $30 billion-a-year product given to hundreds of millions,” he added.
Dr. Vinay Prasad of the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) also remarked that he will not take any additional boosters unless clinical trial data becomes available. “I took at least one dose against my will,” he recounted. “It was unethical and scientifically bankrupt.”
Epidemiologist Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, also from UCSF, joined Lee and Prasad in opposing the boosters. She recounted how she experienced an adverse reaction to her first dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, and that she took the second dose “against [her] will.”
“If I could do it again, I would not have had any COVID-19 vaccines,” Hoeg tweeted.
“I was glad my parents in their 70s could get COVID vaccinated, but have yet to see non-confounded data to advise them about the bivalent booster. I would have liked to see an RCT for the bivalent for people their age and for adults with health conditions that put them at risk.”
Other experts call for a stop to mRNA COVID shots
Other experts, meanwhile, urged a halt in the use of messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines – particularly those from Pfizer and Moderna.
“At this point in time, all COVID mRNA vaccination [programs] should stop immediately,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Retsef Levi said in a video statement.
“They should stop because they completely failed to fulfill any of their advertised [promises] regarding efficacy. More importantly, they should stop because of the mounting and indispuGtable evidence that they cause unprecedented level of harm – including the death of young people and children.” (Related: Top 5 reasons NOT to get a Covid booster vaccine, ever.)
Levi pertained to myocarditis or inflammation of the heart muscle following vaccination, which authorities have acknowledged as linked to the COVID-19 shots. He cited two studies to back up his call.
The first study Levi cited found that nearly three in 10 children injected with Pfizer’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine suffered from cardiac issues. Meanwhile, the second study detected the presence of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antigens in the blood of vaccinated youth.
Louisiana-based physician and researcher Dr. Joseph Fraiman commented that “people should not be given the [vaccines] outside of a clinical trial.”
“I see the likelihood that the harm could outweigh the benefit in the group who stood to benefit the most from the vaccine,” he said. “I don’t see how anyone couldn’t be certain that the benefits are outweighing the harms on a population level, or even in the high-risk groups. I don’t see the evidence to support that claim.”
“Given alternative causes are unlikely to cause myocarditis within one week of vaccination, this is essentially conclusive evidence that we’re seeing sudden cardiac deaths from the vaccines.”
Fraiman and his colleagues re-analyzed the original Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccine trials that led to their approval. They concluded in a peer-reviewed study that vaccinated individuals were at higher risk of serious adverse events.
Relief is spreading among economic analysts and stock market experts. Energy prices are decreasing noticeably. The energy supply this winter seems secure; in Europe, government support for consumers and producers is available if needed. China is turning away from its zero-covid policy, and production is ramping up again. High goods price inflation is still a major concern for consumers and producers, but central banks are delivering at least some interest rate hikes to hopefully reduce currency devaluation. So should we bid farewell to crisis and recession worries? Unfortunately, no.
Because there is an overall economic development that is tantamount to a storm but remains unnamed by many experts and investors. And that is the global contraction of the real money supply. What does that mean? The real money supply represents the actual purchasing power of money. For example: You have ten dollars, and one apple costs one dollar. So with your ten dollars, you can buy ten apples. If the apple price increases to, say, two dollars per piece, the purchasing power of the ten dollars falls to five apples. It becomes obvious that the real money supply is determined by the interplay between the nominal money supply and the prices of goods.
The real money supply in an economy can decrease when the nominal money supply goes down or goods prices rise. This is exactly what is currently happening around the world. The chart below shows the annual growth rate of the real money supply in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) from 1981 to October 2022. The real money supply recently contracted by 7.3 percent year on year. There has never been anything like this before. What is the reason?
The enormous rise in goods prices, i.e., the high inflation, is a consequence of central banks’ monetary policy. In the course of the politically dictated lockdowns, central banks have increased the money supply enormously. For example, the US Federal Reserve has expanded the M2 money stock by around 40 percent since the end of 2019, and the European Central Bank has increased the M3 money supply by 25 percent. As the growth in the supply of goods has not kept pace, a huge money supply overhang has emerged, which is now met with cost-push effects—such as the consequences of green policies, lockdowns, and the Ukraine war—unleashed in sky-high goods price inflation.
In the meantime, however, nominal money supply growth has fallen sharply again. In the US, it fell by 1.3 percent year on year in December 2022 and to 4.1 percent in the euro area. The reason: loan demand is declining, commercial banks are granting fewer loans, and consequently, the new money supply generated by bank lending is falling. Furthermore, central banks are no longer buying government bonds, which is one reason why the inflow of new money into the economy is drying up.
It may sound paradoxical, but in economic terms, the current high goods price inflation is reducing the money supply overhang, and along with now significantly reduced money supply growth, downward pressure on future inflation is already increasing.
However, if the real money supply continues to shrink as sharply as it is currently, the signs point to at least an economic slowdown and, more likely, a recession. When the real money supply in the economy shrinks, those holding cash become poorer. They can now no longer purchase the quantities of goods they previously bought and need to adjust their spending: stop buying more expensive goods, or continue buying more expensive goods while forgoing other things. The result is a drop in aggregate demand.
This phenomenon is, by the way, well known in theory as the “real balance effect.” It goes back to the Israeli-American economist Don Patinkin (1922–95). Patinkin wanted to show, among other things, that the national economy can, so to speak, heal itself in crises without the need for government intervention. If, for example, goods prices fall in a recessionary depression, this strengthens the purchasing power of market players if and when the money supply remains unchanged. They can expand their demand for goods, and the economy works its way out of the crisis more or less automatically.
Applied to current conditions, we can see that a rather powerful negative money balance effect is unfolding: The initial increase in the quantity of money results in a rise of the real money supply, which fuels consumption and production. Then, goods price inflation takes off, and, at the same time, monetary expansion slows down. The result is a very sharp decline in the real money stock, which, in turn, leads to lower economic activity, even recession.
The contraction of output and employment, in turn, exerts downward pressure on rising goods prices, establishing a new relation between the outstanding money stock and goods prices in accordance with peoples’ preferences. Once this adjustment has run its course and the nominal money stock remains unchanged, goods price inflation dies out. The economy ends up with a higher level of goods prices when compared with the situation before the nominal money supply had been increased.
So why do central banks want to raise interest rates even further? Monetary authorities fear that doing nothing and waiting in the current regime of sky-high inflation could erode peoples’ trust in unbacked paper currencies. That, in turn, would push up market participants’ inflation expectations—which, incidentally, is already happening—and create an even bigger inflation crisis further down the road. Moreover, central bank councils usually base their monetary policy on current inflation; they typically have little or no regard for the development of the real money supply.
The central banks thus—consciously or unconsciously—trigger a stabilization recession, an economic contraction to break the inflationary wave. At first glance, their plan could most likely work out. Because if the demand for goods drops, companies can only reduce their inventories by cutting prices. The leeway for passing on costs and speculation on future price increases diminishes. Higher wage demands fail to materialize. And most importantly, credit and money supply growth ebb away in a recession, mitigating future inflationary pressure. But at second glance, this is a very explosive approach in the current monetary environment.
A recession will likely put highly indebted economies under severe stress. Many debtors will no longer be able to service their debts. Loan defaults increase. As a result, banks become reluctant to grant new loans and demand repayment of expiring loans. Investor confidence in debt-ridden economies and financial markets is dwindling. The result would be a fulminant credit crisis, at least at the scale of the one in 2008/9. Investors fear that their interest and principal payments will not be made. Credit markets freeze and the unbacked monetary system is headed for collapse.
The economic pain would be enormous, and the political pressure on central banks to lower interest rates again and keep the economy afloat with new credit and more money would be foreseeable. In the hour of need, governments and the public at large will likely see the policy of the least evil in increasing the money supply. Even a sky-high inflation policy becomes acceptable from their point of view to escape a perceived even greater evil. There are quite a few examples of this tragic handling of the unbacked paper money system.
Just think of 2008/9 (the global financial and economic crisis) and 2020/21 (the crisis after the politically dictated lockdowns). To ward off the crises or keep them as small as possible, central banks lowered interest rates and drastically expanded the money supply. The outcome was inflation—asset price inflation from early 2009 or consumer goods price inflation, which reared its ugly head toward the end of 2021. From this perspective, it is not unlikely that history will repeat itself.
If central banks are not stopped from doing what they are doing—causing booms and busts by manipulating market interest rates downward and relentlessly expanding the quantity of money created out of thin air—their actions will eventually lead to a level of inflation well beyond what we have witnessed over the past year and a half. From this perspective, the sharply contracting real money stock in the world economy is—it has to be feared—the harbinger of a new round of super-easy monetary policy and super-high inflation, even hyperinflation, further down the road.
a prion region in the spike protein of the original SARS-CoV-2, and in all the “vaccine” variants built from the Wuhan virus; 26 cases of Creuzfeldt-Jacob Disease in 2021 average 11 days post shot
Researchers ‘consider it from an anamnestic point of view — one in which we compare the typical development of pre-COVID cases of Creuzfeldt-Jacob Disease to the extremely accelerated development of similar symptoms in the 26 cases under examination.
By such an approach, we hope to work out the etiopathogenesis critical to understanding this new and much more rapidly developing human prion disease. By recalling the sequential pathway of that the formerly subacute and slowly developing disease followed in the past, and by comparing it with this new, extremely acute, rapidly developing prion disease — one following closely after one or more of the COVID-19 injections — we believe it is correct to infer that the injections caused the disease in these 26 cases. If so, they have probably also caused a many other cases that have gone undiagnosed because of their rapid progression to death.
end
From Project Veritias (another video) of Pfizer executive Dr Jordan:
Pfizer Director Concerned Over Women’s Reproductive Heath After COVID-19 Vaccinations (Project Veritas video); this video vindicates Dr. Naomi Wolf & her Daily Clout/Bannon War Room research team
This newly released discussion between Pfizer executive and Project Veritas is very problematic and scandalous for Pfizer. It is clear that Jordan is drunk or close to it.
Three key issues I wanted to mention:
1)Jordan states that the vaccine etc. does not cross the blood-brain barrier. He is flat wrong, we have clear evidence that it does. Pfizer has to prove it does not. Research already abounds that it does as well as the dramatic neurological side effects.
2)He says that they do not know if and how long it lingers in the body. Again, he is flat wrong and it is clear Pfzier and it
Until I am shown otherwise, Damar suffered vaccine-induced myocardial scarring that ended in cardiac arrest due to catecholamine adrenaline surges on playing field placing damaged heart under strain
James Lyons-Weiler, a mentor of mines, shared this paper and I felt you needed to see it as the results were very troubling when you looked into the data
‘Among 161 patients considered as fully vaccinated, i.e., >14 days after the completion of the vaccinal scheme (one dose for Johnson and Johnson and two doses for Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Sputnik vaccines), 10 (6.2%) required hospitalization and four (2.5%) died. Risks of complications increased with age in a nonlinear pattern, with a first breakpoint at 54, 33, and 53 years for death, transfer to ICU, and hospitalization, respectively.’
More deaths in the fully vaccinated than unvaccinated based on this data. The reported death rate in the “fully vaccinated” (2.5%) was higher than the partially vaccinated (1.1%) and unvaccinated (2%). Why?
FIGURE 1. Temporal distribution of the numbers of patients who experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection following vaccination, according to the delay between vaccination and infection diagnosis. The red and green curves indicate patients who received a first or second dose, respectively.
See point iii below & all the data that emerged since then, since the US, Canada, UK etc. has rolled out the COVID mRNA gene shot, has shown this; vaccinated people CAN’T mount natural immunity
The N antibody (nucleocapsid) response indicates that you were exposed naturally to the virus and mounted an immune response to the full virus e.g. acquired adaptive immunity, not just vaccinal immunity directed only to the spike protein which is what the vaccine sought to induce. Spike antibodies meant you were exposed to the vaccine, however spike plus N antibodies etc. meant exposed to the full viral ball.
When the UK government told us that N antibody levels were lower in individuals who acquired infection following 2 doses of vaccination, this was a stunning moment. It told us what we feared which was that the COVID gene injection was subverting your immune system. Negatively, leaving the vaccinated vulnerable then to particularly COVID sub-variants that would emerge due to the sub-optimal non-sterilizing, non-neutralizing injection.
This has occurred and has played out around you and will continue to given this COVID gene injection is a disastrous failure. It not only damages your immune system, but causes the vaccinated to become infected and re-infected, and causes serious harms, driving the emergence of more infections (and potentially more virulent) sub-variants.
See page 23 in UK report.
‘Seropositivity estimates for S antibody in blood donors are likely to be higher than would be expected in the general population and this probably reflects the fact that donors are more likely to be vaccinated. Seropositivity estimates for N antibody will underestimate the proportion of the population previously infected due to (i) blood donors are potentially less likely to be exposed to natural infection than age matched individuals in the general population (ii) waning of the N antibody response over time and (iii) recent observations from UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) surveillance data that N antibody levels appear to be lower in individuals who acquire infection following 2 doses of vaccination.’
Mislabeling Vaccination Deaths for 50 YearsFebruary 2, 2023 4:20 pmSince last year (2022) I have been warning the public about the new class of “experts” that have arisen since COVID warning about the dangers of the COVID-19 injections, but who endorse and recommend all the other vaccines that have been approved by the FDA for the past 30+ years. The corruption in the pharmaceutical industry and the injection of toxic vaccines that cause injuries and deaths did not begin in 2020 with the COVID shots, and there are many of us who have been warning the public on these killer vaccines for decades now. I have also stated publicly that I am PROUD to be labeled as an “Anti-vaxxer”! Like evil and the Devil, there are just certain things it is good to always be against, because there is nothing good in them. Vaccines have never been proven safe nor effective – none of them. So I was very pleased to see an author on Substack, Marc Girardot, dig up some older information previously published by Neil Z. Miller who years ago exposed the fact that infant deaths due to vaccines are never listed on death certificates, because there are no CDC codes for cause of death due to vaccines. Instead, they are labeled as SIDS (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome). Infant vaccinations have been the likely premier cause of illnesses for over a century.Read More…Recent Data Shows ‘Stunning Increase’ In Serious Harm Reports In Young Healthy Pilots After Introduction of COVID ShotsFebruary 2, 2023 4:45 pmIt’s been a year since four Department of Defense (DOD) whistleblowers found a sudden increase in various diseases in the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED), which coincided directly with the introduction of COVID-19 vaccinations. Now, new data shows more evidence. That’s according to Lt. Col.Theresa Long, M.D., MPH, a board-certified aerospace medicine doctor and Army Brigade flight surgeon with specialty training as an aviation mishap investigator and safety officer, who was one of the four whistleblowers. Long’s background has uniquely equipped her to recognize what she described as “unusual diagnoses and alarming trends only after the introduction of the COVID-19 vaccinations.”Read More…
New York NatGas Prices Erupt To 20-Year High Ahead Of Polar Vortex
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 12:01 PM
New Yorkers will feel the wrath of Old Man Winter today as temperatures will plummet into the teens and single digits by this weekend. Heating demand will soar as millions turn up their thermostats to stay warm. The result so far has been the largest spike in New York natural gas prices in two decades.
Bloomberg data shows next-day NatGas deliveries via the Iroquois Gas pipeline that transports Canadian NatGas into New York jumped to $164.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a 14x increase from Wednesday prices. This is the highest print for NatGas at the New York hub dating back to 2003.
Earlier, we quoted Upstate New York meteorologist Ben Frechette who warned, “the coldest airmass on the entire planet will be over New England by Friday night – the only comparable air currently exists over central Siberia.”
Heating demand is also expected to surge in Boston. Prices at the Algonquin City Gate NatGas hub traded around $58/MMBtu, up from $12/MMBtu on the previous day.
Despite the increasing heating demand in the Northeast, US NatGas prices slid another 2% to $2.40/MMBtu on Friday as traders overlooked the cold shot in the Northeast as mild winter across the Lower 48 has allowed for increases in NatGas production and storage.
END
8.EMERGING MARKETS ISSUES//AUSTRALIA ISSUES.
INDIA
Adani races to restore confidence with lenders
Adani Races To Restore Confidence With Lender Talks As Corporate Empire Falters
THURSDAY, FEB 02, 2023 – 06:50 PM
Losses in Gautam Adani’s corporate empire surged to $108 billion on Thursday, sparking fears of a potential systemic implosion one day after the Indian conglomerate’s flagship Adani Enterprises Ltd. scrapped a 200 billion-rupee ($2.4 billion) stock offering.
The suddenness of the equity offering withdrawal reverberated across markets, politics, and business circles. One dealmaker told Bloomberg that he has never seen an equity offering canceled so quickly in his two-decade career.
Indian lawmakers are questioning and requesting a broader probe into the plunge in Adani Enterprises shares. Even the Reserve Bank of India is checking on banking exposure to ensure there’s no systemic threat.
In a separate report, Bloomberg said Credit Suisse and Citigroup have stopped accepting some bonds issued by Adani’s companies as collateral for margin loans to high-net-worth clients. However, Goldman Sachs told investors Adani bond prices have likely hit a floor.
A crisis in confidence plagues Adani and his corporate empire, and he is racing to plug the holes in his sinking ship.
A person familiar with the situation said Adani is in discussions with lenders to prepay and release pledged shares as he seeks to restore confidence,.
Adani nor his companies have faced margin calls on these pledges and aiming for quick prepayment, the person said, adding the move is to dismiss concerns about margin calls.
They noted Adani officials would address investors about the prepayment in the coming days.
This turmoil comes in the wake of Hindenburg Research’s short-seller report. The US firm alleges Adani oversees a sprawling empire built on market manipulation and accounting fraud — allegations he and his conglomerate have repeatedly denied.
Simultaneously, Adani’s personal wealth has taken a massive hit. In just six trading sessions, the billionaire, but no longer Asia’s richest person, has lost $52 billion in personal wealth.
Adani’s primary goal in the short term is to remove concerns about a wave of potential margin calls concerns and default risk as dollar bonds plunge to very distressed levels.
There is no clear messaging (yet) from India’s government if they will get involved in the fight between Hindenburg and Adani.
“Adani and his officials are trying their best to paint it as a foreign conspiracy against the rise of India as an economic power,” said Ashok Swain, head of the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University in Sweden.
However, fund managers aren’t buying that messaging: veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius told Bloomberg that Adani Enterprises’ massive debt load “scared us away” from participating in the share offering.
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0935 UP .0031
USA/ YEN 128.42 DOWN 0.351/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2250 UP 0.0039
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 22.34 PTS OR .68%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 297.89 PTS OR 1.36%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.56% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 297.89 PTS OR 1.36%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.34 PTS OR .68%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .56%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 107.44 PTS OR 0.39%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1915.60
silver:$23.48
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 101.44 DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.7750)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.7936
TURKISH LIRA: 18.82 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.493…VERY DANGEREOUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 13 BIN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.523% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.630 UP 8 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 102.52 UP 94 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 81.64 PTS OR 1.04%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 32.76 POINTS OR 0.27%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 67.67 PTS OR 0.94%
Spain IBEX DOWN 4.10 POINTS OR 0.04%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 149.88 PTS OR 0.55%
WTI Oil price 74.97 12: EST
Brent Oil: 81.04 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 70.60/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 15/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.184
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.070 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0799 DOWN 0.01056 OR 106 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2052 DOWN .01686 or 169 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.065% UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 131.08 UP 2.308////YEN DOWN 231 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3401 UP .0084 (CDN dollar, DOWN 84 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 73.25
Brent OIL: 79.25
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 14 BASIS pts to 3.536%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 3.638%
USA dollar index:102.79 UP 22 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.82
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 70.60 DOWN 0 AND 15/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 127.93 PTS OR 0.38%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 193.86 PTS OR 1.59%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.40 DOWN 0.33 PTS (1.76)%
GLD: $173.46 DOWN 4.44 OR 2.50%
SLV/ $20.57 DOWN 1.00 OR 4.69%
end)
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Nasdaq Soars To Best Start Since 1975 After Jay & Jobs Outperform
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 04:01 PM
This week saw the biggest spike in macro surprise data since June 2020 (thanks to a ridiculous outlier payrolls print and a shocking surprise surge in ISM Services)…
Source: Bloomberg
And today’s “good” news sparked an aggressively hawkish response in STIRs with the terminal rate spiking up to 5.00% and rate-cut expectations sliding (after Powell’s dovish inaneness). This move has erased almost all of the easing priced in from the early Jan CPI print..
Source: Bloomberg
And Powell’s pusillanimous press conference sent financial conditions reeling looser…
Source: Bloomberg
No matter what, Powell defied the odds better than this kid!!
Today was chaotic for the US Majors with Nasdaq lagging (-2%) after GOOGL, AMZN, and AAPL disappointed but BTFDers didn’t care and Payrolls confused the machines…
Stocks soared on the week led by big-tech (Nasdaq +3%), but The Dow ended the week in the red (-0.5)
…which lifted valuations to their highest since April 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
With cyclicals relative to defensives completely decoupling from underlying macro fundamentals…
Source: Bloomberg
And this is Nasdaq Composite’s best start to a year since 1975…
AAPL was a standout after tumbling in the after hours last night, it exploded higher during the day to perfectly run the stops from October before rolling back over…
The massive post-Powell short-squeeze appears to have run out of ammo after 4 straight weeks of gains in the ‘most shorted’ stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
US Treasury yields ended the week higher after exploding higher today after payrolls. The short-end notably underperformed…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y Yield exploded 20bps higher today – its biggest daily rise since June 2022, back above 4.30% and back to CPI levels…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the volatility in bonds this week, the bond market’s “VIX” index (MOVE) tumbled to its lowest since March 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar roared higher off post-Powell lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ended the week practically unchanged from last Friday, finding support at $22,500 and resistance at $24,000 during the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude was clubbed like a baby seal on the week, with Brent back at $80 and WTI tumbling to a $73 handle…
Gold also collapsed this week (post-Powell), tumbling $100 from high to low…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, on the back of today’s strong labor report, Goldman’s economists reiterated our view that the Fed will raise the Fed funds rate by 25bp in the March and May meetings with no cuts to the rate in 2023. If growth holds up as inflation subsides, there likely will be no reason for the Fed to ease financial conditions. But in a scenario where inflation pulls back but the Fed stays the course, real rates are at risk of rising again, and historically real rates and the S&P 500 12 month forward P/E multiple have been closely negatively correlated…
…a potential headwind for the recent rally, already at extremely over-hyped valuations relative to real-rates.
And if you need a catalyst for the downturn, US equity market cap has significantly decoupled from Fed reserves…
Source: Bloomberg
…this has not ended well in the past.
END
EARLY MORNING TRADING/NON FARM PAYROLLS
TOTAL GARBAGE
January Payrolls Explode To 517K, 8-Sigma Beat To Expectations; Unemployment Rate Tumbles To Record Low
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 08:39 AM
Ahead of today’s payrolls report, we warned that there is the possibility for a lot more “market whiplash” because as Goldman explicitly warned, there is the risk for an outlier strong report in January due to massive seasonal adjustments…
… which when coupled with historical revisions to both the Household and Establishment surveys, could lead to a massive beat. That’s precisely what happened when moments ago the BLS reported that instead of the 188K expected number, in January the US created a laughably goalseeked 517K jobs (at a time when mass layoff news hit every 45 minutes), up twice from last month’s upward revised 260K and the highest since July 2022
This was note a 6, not a 7 but an 8-sigma beat relative to expectations!
For those keeping track, this was a record 8th consecutive beat relative to expectations.
And while we joked yesterday that the ongoing mass layoffs would prompt the BLS to cut the unemployment rate to a record low if for purely political purposes…
… the joke was on us: according to the BLS, the Unemployment rate really did drop to a record low 3.4% from 3.6% (technically not record, the lowest ever was 2.6% in 1953 but it will do).
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.2%), adult women (3.1%), teenagers (10.3%), Whites (3.1%), Blacks (5.4%), Asians (2.8%), and Hispanics (4.5%) showed little change in January, but it is worth noting that the unemp rate for blacks dropped to a record low.
Developing
END
trading:
“Extremely Hawkish”: Stocks, Bonds, Gold Puke After ‘Good’ Jobs Data; Rate-Hike Odds Soar
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 08:52 AM
“Extremely hawkish,” says Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research.
‘Good’ news on the labor market (lowest unemployment rate since 1969… after 450bps of rate-hikes?!) is a disaster for the ‘soft landing’ narrative and sent rate-hike expectations soaring above pre-Powell levels…
Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says the much stronger-than-expected payrolls report may finally be the data point that convinces the market the Fed won’t be cutting this year.
“As such, we think the long-end range may once again be re-tested with the 10-year Treasury topping 3.75% again, but we think a more pronounced selloff unlikely. Meanwhile a re-test of 4.4% on the two-year note seems possible if 2023 rate cuts are priced out.”
This sent stocks tumbling…
And bond yields are soaring back to pre-Powell levels…
Gold tumbled back to $1900…
“Is Powell now wondering why he didn’t push back on the loosening in financial conditions?” asks Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
“It’s difficult to see how wage pressures can possibly soften sufficiently when jobs growth is as strong as this and it’s even more difficult to see the Fed stop raising rates and entertain ideas of rate cuts when there is such explosive economic news coming in.”
The only thing flying high is the dollar…
Source: Bloomberg
Jeffrey Rosenberg, a senior portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., says on Bloomberg TV: “This is a reminder of what Powell tried to say, but the market wasn’t listening.”
end
The truth:
The real number is a loss of 2.5 million jobs.
So this is how we get from the real 2.5 million loss to a gain of 517 jobs.
What utter garbage is the BLS
What Was Behind Today’s “Wow, Wow, Wow” Jobs Report
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 11:21 AM
There was a loud gasp from Wall Street strategists and economists after today’s job report printed, with the reactions more or less in line with expectations: anywhere from “wow, wow, wow”…
… to “holy moly”
And with the unemployment rate plunging to 3.4% – matching the lowest in 54 years – from 3.6%, while the payrolls report showing the addition of 517K jobs the highest since July, and far above the highest forecast – in fact, a record 9-sigma beat to median consensus, today’s report was indeed a blowout.
So what happened? Well, a couple of things. First, as we warned yesterday, today the BLS unveiled a slew of data revisions, which include updating the population controls – which would have the mechanical effect of boosting the labor force – and updating seasonal factors, which further distorted the January nonfarm payroll number (this is key as readers will read shortly). This is indeed what happened:
The revisions – in case there was any question – were to the upside, and made the Establishment survey data appear even stronger. A lot stronger in fact: there were upward revisions to all monthly payrolls reports starting with June 2022 as shown in the chart below.
In practical terms, whether the they were merited or purely goalseeked propaganda, the revisions helped to resolve the mystery of missing workers in the labor market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and most analysts have estimated that about 2.5-3 million workers are “missing” – i.e., most analysts would expect many more workers to be working today if the pandemic hadn’t happened. Well, there was an 813k upward revision to the December payrolls report (which was revised from 153.743 million to 154.556 million) and which explained much of where the “missing workers” went: as expected, they were merely bits in some excel spreadsheet.
But the one place where the revisions were most notable was in the Household survey which is used to calculate the actual number of employed workers. What it showed was an even more remarkable surge in employment in January, which surged by a whopping 894K in January, and together with the upward revised 717K in December, a grand total of 1.6 million in two months…
…. that infamous divergence between the Household and Establishment surveys which showed zero employment gains from March until November, has almost closed.
So good job BLS, for keeping an eye on this website which tends to point out what data makes no sense and you revising it appropriately. Only… maybe not. Because despite the massive revisions, what the BLS forgot to fix was the distribution between full time and part-time workers. And that’s a whoppsie, because as shown in the chart below…
… the number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132.587 million. Fast forward to January 2023 when it was 132.577: that’s right: total US full-time workers declined by 10K over a period of 10 months. Meanwhile, part-time workers soared from 25.908 million to 27.400 million, an increase of 1.492 million!
So at least we know where the bulk of the increase in US labor came from in the past year: virtually no full-time jobs, and all part-time.
Ok, fine, but what about the January surge in Payrolls? Well, recall what we said last night: in our preview of today’s payrolls we warned “It’s not the January payrolls report. It’s the January seasonal adjustment report. Lat year it was 2.9 million”…
… and that today’s number would be entire a function of the seasonal adjustment.
Guess what: it was. Because, while theadjusted payrolls print was an increase of 517K, the unadjusted was – oops – 2.5 million!
This is what Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong put it: “The January jobs report showed extremely robust growth, higher than the highest estimate in the Bloomberg survey. If it seems too good to be true, that’s because it is too good to be true — the gain is mostly due to seasonal factors and revisions to past data. The Fed likely won’t place too much weight on this report in formulating policy.”
Readers knew this of course: in our NFP preview last night we quoted Goldman who said that “the January seasonal factors have evolved favorably in recent years, with a month-over-month hurdle for private payrolls of -2,829k in January 2022 compared to -2,695k on average in 2017-19 (see Exhibit 3). We believe the BLS seasonal factors are overfitting to the Omicron-related payroll deceleration in January 2022 (+500k mom sa, vs. +609k on average in 4Q21 and +714k in February 2022).”
This is how Goldman showed the seasonal “hurdle” (i.e., fudge factor) going into the January print…
… and the the final adjustment factor: +517K seasonally adjusted number vs -2.505 million unadjusted, which brings us to a record 3+ million seasonal adjustment factor.
And that, dear readers, is how you convert a 2.5 million plunge in jobs into a 517K, market blow-out 9-sigma payrolls beat, which moments ago allowed Biden to brag on TV just how strong his economy truly is…
EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//
END
ii) USA DATA
For years, the PMI measures the economy more accurately than the crooked ISM numbers
Take a look at the difference today in the service side of things
(zerohedge)
Services Sector Survey Stupidity: ISM Soars Most Since COVID Rebound, PMI Signals Recession
FRIDAY, FEB 03, 2023 – 10:06 AM
After a mixed picture on the Manufacturing side of the US economy (though both ISM and PMI were in contraction), the Services sector was even more mixed:
S&P Global’s US Services PMI rose from 44.7 to 46.8 in January (contraction for 7th straight month)
ISM Services soared from 49.2 (contraction) to 55.2 (50.5 exp) – the biggest surge since June 2020 and biggest beat since June 2020
Source: Bloomberg
After the biggest miss since 2008 in December, January’s ISM Services beat by the most since June 2020…
The ISM Services print is the only one not in contraction…
Under the hood of the ISM Services data, jobs, new export orders, and overall orders all jumped while prices slipped lower…
“Business activity in the vast US services economy contracted in January as companies reported a further deterioration in new business inflows. Hiring has almost ground to halt as firms reassess their payroll needs in the light of the weaker demand environment.
“The downturn is being led by a slump in financial services activity, linked in turn to higher borrowing costs, with consumer-facing service providers also reporting especially tough business conditions amid the ongoing squeeze in spending due to the rising cost of living.
“The January survey meanwhile brought mixed messages on inflation. While costs were boosted in part by rising wage pressures, reflecting the tight labor market, tough competition once again limited scope to pass on these higher costs to customers in the form of higher prices.”
But Williamson notes, he S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 46.8 in January, up from 45.0 in December, but being below 50 means it remains in contraction with total new orders falling modestly as weak domestic and foreign client demand hampered new business.
“Combined with the fall in manufacturing output recorded during the month, the service sector’s downturn at the start of the year adds to the risk that the US economy could contract in the first quarter.
Is that the picture that the market is clinging to when it prices in rate-cuts this year? And if that’s true, why did the BLS just report a massive surge in jobs?
(zerohedge)
END
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS
ILLINOIS
And the economy is strong? good job growth. Take a look at Illinois:
Record 285,000 Illinois Residents Saw Power Shut-Offs Due To Non-Payment In 2022
A new report compiled by the Center for Biological Diversity has revealed that the number of households having their electricity disconnected by power companies as a result of not being able to pay soared between 2021 and 2022.
Leading the way among states who report such data is Illinois, whose main electricity providers shut down power for nearly 300,000 households between January and October 2022, a massive increase over the previous year.
According to the report, disconnects in Illinois rose 26 percent from 2021 to 284,720 in the first ten months of 2022. The state’s two largest electricity providers, Exelon’s Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) and Amaren, accounted for the vast majority of shut-offs.
Both companies are investor-owned and have been criticized for increasing executives’ salaries while working to make electricity more expensive for customers.
As the report states, ComEd imposed a 26 percent rate hike in October 2021, and gained permission from regulators in November 2022 to raise prices yet again by $199 million. All the while, customers were having their lights turned off for non-payment.
During this time, ComEd was also embroiled in a corruption scandal, in which it was accused of “using ratepayer funds as part of a bribery scheme” to secure the passage of 2011 legislation that implemented a “formula rate” system. The system subjected customers to hundreds of millions of dollars in rate hikes over the last decade, but ComEd benefited to the tune of nearly $4.7 billion.
At the onset of Covid-19, a moratorium on shutoffs due to nonpayment was imposed across the nation, however, Illinois was one of the states that ended the policy as soon as it possibly could. By late 2021, no such forgiveness was offered.
“The preventable practice of disconnections keeps millions of Americans in poverty and narrows their avenues of escape,” the report lamented. “By giving utility companies the power to penalize poverty, we license them to perpetuate it.”
END
The new AP Chat GPT3 (artificial intelligence) is unbelievable: It passes Medical exam boards, bar exams, and even entrance to Wharton MBA.
In the past three weeks, policymakers had their worlds rocked by generative artificial intelligence. The problem is that they don’t know it – yet.
First, a team of researchers demonstrated that Open AI’s Chat GPT3 can pass the stringent United States Medical Licensing Exam. Days later, Chat GPT 3 passed a bar exam. Finally, Chat GPT3 passed the prestigious Wharton Business School’s rigorous core examination.
The Wharton researcher writes, “OpenAI’s Chat GPT3 has shown a remarkable ability to automate some of the skills of highly compensated knowledge workers in general and specifically the knowledge workers in the jobs held by MBA graduates including analysts, managers, and consultants.”
Lawyers, doctors, administrators, managers, and consultants are some of the most highly compensated professionals in the United States. Generative artificial intelligence is banishing them to obsolescence.
With only 375 employees, the unprofitable Chat GPT3 was acquired by behemoth Microsoft at a valuation reportedly northward of $30 billion. For perspective, with over 42,000 highly educated healthcare employees, AmerisourceBergen is the largest company by revenue headquartered in Pennsylvania. Its valuation is $33.25 billion. So, with 99% fewer employees, the unprofitable Chat GPT3 is already worth nearly the same as the largest company in the Commonwealth.
Microsoft has already pledged $10 billion to optimize Chat GPT3 toward profitability. Tens of billions more dollars are coming.
The last time policymakers were presented with displacement on this scale was the globalization that decimated the American working class. The solution for Pennsylvania policymakers was to pivot the state’s economy to “Eds and Meds,” which now constitute 44% of total employment.
Those industries were chosen because spending is generated predominantly by the government, which is historically stable. To quote Ronald Reagan, “Government programs, once launched, never disappear.” Pennsylvania policymakers knew that they were making safe bets as those markets would almost always exist.
The pivot worked, with Pennsylvania stabilizing its population decline. Communities able to make the pivot, particularly in the suburbs, saw prosperity.
Once reliably Republican, the suburban voters employed by “Eds and Meds” now constitute the Democratic Party’s base. The rise of conservative populism, which pointed the finger at college-educated elites for the decline of the working class, accelerated the trend.
The reticence of suburban elites to choose Republican candidates is understandable, considering some in the GOP’s working-class base label them the enemy. For many in the working class, the contempt is personal, as they perceive the college-educated as having enriched themselves at their expense, via globalization.
But generative artificial intelligence is poised to inflict the same level of economic devastation on suburban elites as suffered by the working class through globalization. Some elites will undoubtedly find sure footing in the pending economy created by generative artificial intelligence. But many others will not.
The Rust Belt’s decline took decades to manifest. Its slow pace helped shield policymakers from criticism because gradual change enabled some Americans to find solutions on their own.
In contrast to globalization’s slow deindustrialization, however, technological adoption moves at lightning speed and is only getting faster. “Eds and Meds” suburbanites are unlikely to gain a reprieve through gradual transition. Profitable generative artificial intelligence business models may surface within a year. Suburban prosperity could be severely undermined before the next Winter Olympics. Policymakers need immediate solutions.
Political polarization rises during economic decline. A 20-point gap persists between the political affiliations of college-educated and non-college-educated Americans. It is one of the most pronounced cleavages in American politics.
The displacement potentially caused by generative artificial intelligence could put college-educated voters back into electoral play for Republicans, presuming the GOP can deliver something for them.
The path to help these Pennsylvanians, one that would be exclusive to Republicans, is rapid reindustrialization. The prerequisites for rapid reindustrialization are affordable, abundant energy and school choice. Both are fundamental tenets of the GOP platform.
Pennsylvania is blessed with abundant natural resources and is a net exporter of energy. It has educational entrepreneurs pleading for the opportunity to create the most industrially skilled workforce on the planet. Products made in Pennsylvania can reach most of the continental United States or international waters within 24 hours. Among the 50 states, this “iron triangle” of energy-workforce-logistics may be unique to Pennsylvania.
Rapid reindustrialization is the path that unites all educational backgrounds to produce real, sustainable wealth. Instead of pitting the educational classes against one another, it makes them partners in success.
Pennsylvania Republican policymakers have the opportunity before them to accomplish what Ron DeSantis has achieved in Florida: a generational political realignment of a state.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s Republican Party leaders have proposed spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on a 2022 midterm post-mortem. That’s fine. But the lesson of the 2022 midterm is that voters do not reward looking backwards.
A crisis has begun. The GOP will respond either by providing tomorrow’s leaders or being condemned by history for failing to rise to the challenge.
Below is my column in the New York Post on the latest developments in the Biden classified document investigation. The latest search occurred on the first day at the office for Robert Hur as Special Counsel. He may find that any potential criminal case has already been made more difficult by decisions by the FBI.
Here is the column:
The FBI issued the “all clear” on its latest search of one of President Biden’s residences. The announcement came with the first day of special counsel Robert Hur on the job at the Justice Department.
It could be challenging to make a criminal case after how the investigation has been handled.
At every stage, the FBI has adopted an approach that would compromise or complicate any criminal charge.
The FBI left the home untouched for over three months after classified documents were found in Biden’s former office in DC. While it was recently learned that the FBI did go to that office a couple weeks later, they reportedly elected to have personal counsel for the president conduct searches on the residences. Biden then spent weeks traveling to these residences after the FBI waited to search the premises.
The private searches clearly went through these documents and moved (and potentially organized) material. Despite being given the opportunity to conduct and record the initial searches, the FBI will now have to rely on the accounts of private counsel on how these documents were originally left, including any visible classification markings.
For example, to go through the papers, counsel had to handle them, sort them, and stack or box them. That means that the original conditions are lost in determining, for example, if anyone in the vicinity could have seen a telltale bordered classified jacket or whether a classified document was partially or fully outside of a jacket.
The FBI allowed uncleared private counsel to tread all over these scenes, creating a nightmare of chain of custody.
It then waited weeks to send its own agents to places like Rehoboth Beach as counsel and the Bidens frequented the property.
It is also not clear how the FBI conducted these searches. Reports recently indicated that Biden included classified information in notebooks that were seized in earlier searches. If true, that is a nightmare for investigators because it would require agents to do more than simply look for classified documents with markings at the beginning of paragraphs and tops of pages. They would have to actually read material to determine if Biden incorporated classified material.
In fairness to the FBI, the same hands-off approach was initially used with Trump as the FBI allowed for material to be collected and stored with additional security at Mar-a-Lago.
There are two differences.
First, Trump never denied having such material. He insisted that he was allowed to have the files because he considered them unclassified.
Second, while the Trump team insists that the FBI was given access to the documents, Trump resisted efforts to turn over all of the documents. Indeed, the FBI has raised a pattern of obstruction and false statements.
With Biden, the FBI did not know where documents might be located. The findings overlap with residential and office space used by Biden over the years. Moreover, they were reportedly told that they could search and seize any documents. They did not use that opportunity to search all of these locations, even after counsel erroneously stated that no more classified material was present at these locations.
The FBI is moving no more aggressively with other possible areas containing classified material. The FBI still has not reportedly searched the massive trove of Biden documents being stored at the University of Delaware. Reports indicate that Biden removed classified material as senator and these records cover that period. Looking for a few documents in Rehoboth Beach and not the university (roughly 80 miles away) with a truckload of documents is like driving past the ocean to go fishing in a wading pool.
The result for Hur is a case that is messier than Biden’s garage.
It is hard to see how this investigation would yield a solid criminal case absent confirmation that Biden worked off clearly classified material.
If so, he showed both intent and knowledge of unlawful possession during prior years. It would also make his categorical denials of any knowledge appear more sinister and incriminating.
Either way, none of this suggests “transparency,” as Biden likes to boast. The investigation has proceeded with a small fraction of the information leaked or released against Trump. Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) also says that the National Archives were blocked from putting out a press release about the case — either by the Department of Justice or the White House. Combined with the fact that nothing was made public until after the midterms, it shows that Biden’s team wanted to keep this quiet.
In the end, both Biden and Trump come out looking bad but that is not nearly as bad a thing for Trump.
end
Humour
Woman charged with stealing $1.5 million in chicken wings in Chicago.
They were not even boneless..
(zerohedge)
Woman Charged With Stealing $1.5 Million In Chicken Wings From Chicago Suburb School District
THURSDAY, FEB 02, 2023 – 06:10 PM
A 66-year-old woman was charged with stealing over $1.5 million worth of food – primarily chicken wings, while working as the Director of Food Services for a school district within a suburb of Chicago.
Bond was set at $150,000 Thursday for Vera Lidell, who began working for Harvey School District 152 in July 2020, placed hundreds of unauthorized orders for items between July 2020 and February 2022 – which included 11,000 cases of chicken wings through the school’s primary supplier, Gordon Food Service.Vera Lidell (Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office)
Liddell is accused of placing the orders alongside legitimate orders for the district.
“The massive fraud began at the height of COVID during a time when students were not allowed to be physically present in school. Even though the children were learning remotely, the school district continued to provide meals for the students that their families could pick up,” according to prosecutors.
“The food was never brought to the school or provided to the students,” reads the proffer.
Believing the orders were genuine, Gordon Food Service billed Harvey School District 152, which then paid for the food items, according to court records. Lidell would then allegedly use one of the school district’s cargo vans to pick up and transport the stolen food.
A routine mid-year audit conducted by the district’s business manager in January 2022 showed the food service department had exceeded its annual budget by over $300,000 despite only being halfway through the school year, prosecutors said. Prosecutors said Lidell was the only person responsible for placing food orders on behalf of the district. –Fox5NY
“Upon closer review, she discovered individual invoices signed by Liddell for massive quantities of chicken wings, an item that was never served to students because they contain bones,” the proffer continues.
Gordon Food Service employees got to know Lidell “due to the massive amount of chicken wings she would purchase,” while surveillance footage from the facility revealed that she would often arrive prior to them opening to pick up orders.
Lidell, whose bail is set at $150,000, is currently being held at Cook County Jail until she’s scheduled to appear in court
THE KING REPORT
The King Report February 3, 2023 Issue 6941Independent View of the NewsECB Hikes by Half-Point and Signals Same Again in March Policymakers, as expected, raised the deposit rate to 2.5%, the highest since 2008. Lagarde warned that the most aggressive bout of monetary tightening in ECB history isn’t done… the Governing Council said it “intends” to raise rates by another 50 basis points at its March meeting, then “evaluate the subsequent path of its monetary policy.”… While conceding that the ECB’s intention to raise by another half-point next month isn’t “irrevocable,” she also said it’s very likely to transpire… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-delivers-half-point-hike-133427315.html
ECB Says Rates Still Have to Rise Significantly, at Steady Pace – BBG 8:15 ET
Lagarde: Economic Activity Slowed Markedly – BBG 8:52 ET Lagarde: Decline in Inflation Rate Mostly Due to Energy – BBG 8:55 ET Lagarde: Price Pressures Remain Strong as High Energy Costs Spread – DJ 8:56 ET Lagarde Says Riske to Growth Outlook Have Become More Balanced – BBG 8:59 ET Lagarde: ECB Sees Risks to Inflation Outlook More Balanced – BBG 8:59 ET Lagarde: In All Reasonable Scenarios, Significant Hikes Needed – BBG – 9:06 ET ECB’s Lagarde: We Know That We Are Not Done (hiking rates) – BBG 9:08 ET Lagarde Says March Plan Isn’t an Irrevocable Commitment – BBG 9:12 ET Lagarde: Monitoring Wage Negotiations – BBG 9:22 ET Lagarde: China Reopening to Impact Commodity Prices – BBG 9:26 ET Lagarde: Headline Inflation Has Gone Down More Than Expected – BBG 9:29 ET Lagarde: Wouldn’t Say Disinflationary Process Already at Play – BBG 9:29 ET Lagarde: Underlying Inflation Pressures ‘Alive and Kicking’ – BBG 9:30 ET Lagarde Says ECB Needs to Move Rate into Restrictive Territory – BBG 9:47 ET
BOE Raises Key Rate to 4% Saying More Hikes May Be NeededBailey says inflation risks tilted ‘significantly’ to upside“We have seen a turning of the corner, but it is very early days and the risks are very large…” https://www.yahoo.com/now/boe-raises-key-rate-4-120526058.html
@NickTimiraos: The Bank of England raised rates by a half percentage point to 4% but signaled it might pause its increases as the economy struggles and inflation slows
@NickTimiraos: There was surprise among some commentators Wednesday at how Powell used a different framing on financial conditions by looking over last 12 months and saying they had tightened “very significantly”. It was exactly how Brainard framed it opening in this speech two weeks ago today. Brainard cites private sector borrowing costs and real rates as deflated by market-based measures of inflation compensation. They appear not to be looking at financial conditions *indices* as the end-all be-all of financial conditions when real rates are higher than they’ve been… https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1621128151438065666?s=02
ESHs traded moderately higher but sideways during Nikkei trading. At 3:23 ET, ESHs and stocks jumped higher. The rally was rescinded within an hour. ESHs and stocks then traded sideways with a negative bias until the rally for the NYSE open commenced after the US bond market opened at 8 ET. At 9 ET, ESHs rolled over and declined 24 handles by 10:09 ET. We all know what happened next!
Conditioned traders then got jiggy and aggressively bought stuff, particularly Fangs. ESHs zoomed to 4196.75 by 10:55 ET, a 43-handle rally in 42 minutes.
Fangs went postal to the upside due to Meta’s buyback and visions of grandeur (turned out to be delusions) for Apple, Amazon, and Google’s results that were due after the NYSE close.
The DJTA hit +3% by 10:53 ET. The NY Fang+ Index hit +6.7% near 11:00 ET. Dopey Powell, like he did in July, unleashed extreme exuberance by issuing a dovish clause. Disinflation process has begun on Wednesday. In July it was fed funds are at a ‘neutral rate’. Larry Summers, of all people, called Powell’s ‘neutral rate’ comment “indefensible.”
After the European close, ESHs and stocks rolled over until a Noon Balloon developed at 12:11 ET. ESHs plodded higher, finally hitting a peak of 4208.50 at 14:01 ET. ESHs then tumbled to 4157.50 at 15:03 ET. Someone then juiced ESMs to 4193.50 by the close. Hello SEC? After the NYSE close, ESHs spiked to 4207.00 at 16:03 ET and then fell to 4277.75 at 16:06 ET due to Google.
Google (Alphabet) reported 1.05 EPS, 1.18 consensus; Q4 revenue of $76.05B, $76.51B expected. Despite the bad results, GOOGL initially jumped 4%; it quickly tumbled to a 6.5% loss.
Amazon sank 3% after it projected Q1 sales of $121B to $126B ($125.55B expected), on slower Cloud growth, and operating income of 0 to $4B. Q4 sales are $149.20B, $145.8B exp; EPS of 1.05; 1.20 exp. Like Google, Amazon initially surged (~4%) on the results and then quickly tanked to a 6% loss.
Apple rebounded 9 handles after CEO Cook attributed the poor results to supply chain issues.
@bespokeinvest tweeted at 1:18 PM on Thu, Feb 02, 2023: For a day when the S&P 500 is up over 1.5%, breadth is pretty weak with just 363 advancing issues. (It was a Fang & trading sardine rally.)
Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA (for the 2nd straight day), Nasdaq, and Fangs surged (Meta as much as +29%) Commodities declined after rallying sharply in early US trading
Negative aspects of previous session The DJIA was down all day ESHs and stocks tumbled during the penultimate hour of NYSE trading USHs lost their entire 1 1/32 rally and turned negative by 14:00 ET After the close, the holy trinity of Fangs (AMZN, APPL, GOOGL) reported poor results
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Powell’s remarks eased financial conditions. Was this an accident, or was it on purpose?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4172.36 Previous session High/Low: 4195.44; 4141.88
COVID-19 Antibodies from Eggs Researchers at the University of California, Davis, have been able to produce antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in hen eggs. Antibodies harvested from eggs might be used to treat COVID-19 or as a preventative measure for people exposed to the disease. The work was published July 9 in the journal Viruses… https://www.ucdavis.edu/health/covid-19//news/covid-19-antibodies-eggs
@ericwallerstein: Options trading set a new daily record: More than 68 million contracts traded on Thursday. 40 million calls changed hands. For reference, average daily volume last year was less than 45 million *for calls & puts combined*.https://t.co/NmxX8uOVSQ
Today – Traders must adjust their holdings and psychology to the holy trinity of Fangs very disappointing results. Then they will have to navigate the January Employment Report.
Is a good January NFP good or bad for stocks? Will Team Biden continue to embellish NFP via boosting seasonal adjustments? Will NFP and Household Survey Employed continue to contract each other? Which measure of jobs is accurate? When will they align? Wages might be the most important factor today. Will ESHs and USHs react two minutes before the jobs report issued, like they have been doing?
We have opined for the past week or so that the known trading universe got massively long for the confluence of January performance gaming, Fed Day, and Fangs results. Though Powell ignited irrational euphoria, the holy trinity of Fangs ended the soiree on a very, very soar note.
Stocks are extremely overbought; sentiment is exceedingly bullish. Astute traders are looking to unload into the standard Friday rally; and they worry that next week Fed officials will try to undo the damage the Powell did with his disinflation remark – just like they did after his neutral rate gaffe at the end of July.
ESHs are -21.50 at 21:00 ET on Amazon, Apple, and Google’s poor results.
Expected economic data: Jan NFP 190k, Mfg 6k, Rate 3.6%, Wages 0.3%, Workweek 34.3, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.3%; Jan S&P US Services PMI 46.6; Jan ISM Services Index 50.5; SF Fed Prez and uber-liberal Mary Daly on Fox Business at 14:30 ET
AP: “One of the places the balloon was spotted was Montana, which is home to one of the nation’s three nuclear missile silo fields at Malmstrom Air Force Base.” https://t.co/Yd1sgoCNG1
@SpeakerMcCarthy: China’s brazen disregard for U.S. sovereignty is a destabilizing action that must be addressed, and President Biden cannot be silent.I am requesting a Gang of Eight briefing.
House GOP launches probe into John Kerry’s secret negotiations with China Comer accuses Kerry of crafting “secret agreements with foreign governments” in his role as the 80-year-old president’s climate envoy. His letter cites a May 2022 interview with the Associated Press in which Kerry acknowledges working with the Chinese to form a group to reduce greenhouse gas emissions… https://t.co/QjHne7AjcL
National Archives blocked from revealing Biden classified docs find by WH or DOJ: source Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) revealed on Tuesday that Archives general counsel Gary Stern, in a closed-door interview, said he could not tell lawmakers who had ordered the Archives to keep quiet and not put out a press release announcing the Nov. 2 find at the Penn Biden Center. “There are only two people that could have given those orders, and that’s either the Department of Justice with [Attorney General] Merrick Garland or the White House with Joe Biden,” Comer told Fox News’ “Hannity.” “So, it shows right there that this Department of Justice and this White House is interfering with this,” he added… NARA’s relative public silence about Biden’s classified documents is in stark contrast to the publicity the agency gave the discovery of sensitive files at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate this past August… https://t.co/CgoB7oUcrO
House Oversight chair: No Biden officials have come before panel, while 39 testified under Trump Comer said Monday that Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas had been blocking needed testimony from four key border patrol officials. Mayorkas later reversed course… https://justthenews.com/government/congress/comer-testified-oversight-committee
NBC News reports federal law enforcement ‘could have prevented’ Jan. 6 riot: ‘Did not act on intelligence’https://t.co/wtfZPXWUAU
Judiciary Com Chair @Jim_Jordan: Hunter Biden just admitted that his laptop belonged to him. How can that be? 51 “intelligence officials” told us it was misinformation!
GOP @repdarrellissa: It’s not a surprise Hunter Biden has finally admitted his laptop is real. The shock is how long the media, Democrats, and Intelligence Community lied that it was fake.
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Attorney for Hunter Biden tells me letters requesting investigation into the laptop repair store owner, Rudy Giuliani, and others, are NOT an acknowledgment that the laptop is, in fact, Hunter’s: (Not a parody) https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1621209984326303746
@JonathanTurley: Hunter has avoided any public discussion of his foreign dealings. Yet, if he carries out his threat and sues for defamation, he would invite a deposition under oath and under hostile conditions. His father would relish that prospect before 2024 as much as drinking molten lead.
Hunter’s business partner moved 1,850 boxes of sensitive documents from then-VP Joe Biden’s White House office: Lawyers WARNED HIM about including ‘Obama-Biden transition papers’ Eric Schwerin was tasked with moving archives to University of Delaware in 2010WH lawyers warned archives Joe Biden donated to UDel had sensitive docshttps://t.co/IuejMl71hy Hunter Biden begs friends, dad Joe’s employees to get him off the hook First State Attorney General Kathy Jennings was among those urged to look into people connected with the laptop, including Mac Isaac, and former President Donald Trump’s onetime attorney Rudy Giuliani. Jennings, a Democrat who was elected state AG in 2018, was tapped in 2011 by then-Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden — Hunter’s late brother — to serve as a prosecutor in the state Department of Justice… Even closer to the Biden family is Jennings’ chief deputy, Alexander Mackler, who served as Joe Biden’s press secretary in his final months as a US senator, managed Beau’s successful re-election campaign for state attorney general in 2010, and served as the elder Biden’s deputy counsel during his time as Barack Obama’s vice president. Mackler’s name also appears frequently in Hunter Biden’s laptop… Meanwhile, another letter from Lowell was addressed to the Justice Department’s top national security official, Matthew Olsen — who held several sensitive legal positions in the Obama-Biden administration, including general counsel of the National Security Agency and director of the National Counterterrorism Center before leaving government in 2014… https://nypost.com/2023/02/02/hunter-biden-begs-friends-dad-joes-employees-to-get-him-off-the-hook/
@bennyjohnson: Hunter Biden threatened Tucker Carlson with a lawsuit for talking about his laptop. The monologue tonight is an absolute jaw-breaker that compares the Biden family to the Hussein dictatorship in Iraq. https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1621324018832875521
@KyivIndependent: Ukraine’s Security Service suspects Sumy Oblast officials of alleged embezzlement. According to Ukraine’s Security Service, two Sumy Oblast officials allegedly embezzled government-allocated funds to reconstruct the region, damaged by hostilities and constant Russian shelling.
GOP @RepRussellFry: The pandemic is over, but just 1 in 3 federal workers have returned to their office full-time.
@RichLowry: If Democrats didn’t want to go down this path, they could have told Nancy Pelosi to cease and desist, but as soon as she created the precedent, it was obvious Omar and others would be booted from committees as soon as the GOP took control
@ggreenwald: Pelosi invented 2 new precedents while the Guardians of Norms (“This. Is. Not. Normal.”) cheered: 1) The Speaker can reject the other party’s nominees for Committees; 2) Members can be denied Committees due to opinions. Now Dems are whining these apply to them, too.
Biden: “More than half of the women in my administration are women!” (To be fair, some are suspect!) https://t.co/xzngFYCtvQ
Monica Lewinsky took Bill Clinton’s eye off bin Laden, leading to 9/11: ex-aide Veteran campaign pollster Doug Schoen writes in his new memoir that then-President Clinton and his team-were so distracted by the Monica Lewinsky scandal they lost track of al Qaeda terror mastermind Osama bin Laden — allowing him to later orchestrate the 9/11 terrorist attacks that slaughtered nearly 3,000 Americans… https://trib.al/0NdzbOM
Babylon Bee: Trump Attacks DeSantis for Failing to Fire Dr. Fauci, Rushing Untested Vaccine In addition to blaming DeSantis for the failings of Dr. Fauci, Trump also took the governor to task for rushing a vaccine through development with the federal government’s Operation Warp Speed. “Now they’re finding out this vaccine has all these terrible side effects, and it’s all because of Ron DeSantis,” said Mr. Trump. “Might as well call the disease ‘myocarDeSantis’! Ha! What a total failure. Sad!” Thus far, the DeSantis camp has yet to issue any direct response to Trump’s attacks. “Yeah, we’re just as confused as y’all are,” said DeSantis’ communications director Christina Pushaw. “We always liked Trump, so it’s honestly kind of sad to see his mind start to go. I know dementia isn’t supposed to be contagious, but D.C. sure makes it seem that way.” https://t.co/D3Jdtqs9Cc
The constant media psyop is falling apart on all fronts. We were told Trump was colluding with the Russians. That was a huge lie. We were told Hunter Biden’s laptop was Russian disinformation. That’s another huge lie. We were told the CV19 vax was safe and effective, which is a double deadly monster lie. These are just a few of the lies the Lying Legacy Media (LLM) continues to push. As the old saying goes, “Don’t give up the con.” We have been conned, and we are all paying for it. The LLM will never recover.
A new study shows masks do not work to stop covid. NYU Professor of Media Studies Mark Crispin Miller called the mask fiasco a gigantic form of propaganda. He also says the entire Covid19 event from infection to injection was a masterpiece in propaganda. Another new study says the CV19 vax offered “zero benefit” and “made the problem worse in every metric, hospitalizations, infections and death.” The CV19 injections are now routinely being called a “bioweapon.” There have been 600 million CV19 injections in the USA alone. There have been nearly 13 billion CV19 injections globally. There is no stopping the vaccine genocide, but you may help yourself with Ivermectin. The LLM is covering up deaths, injuries and still trashing Ivermectin. Nuremberg 2.0 will not be kind to them.
They keep saying the Fed is just about to stop raising rates, and rate cuts are right around the corner. The Fed just raised a key interest rate this week and is promising there are more to come. Granted, the Fed has signaled the increase will be smaller, but the FED IS STILL RAISING RATES. Maybe it’s the Saudi government announcing the end of the petrodollar by now accepting other currencies besides the U.S. Dollar in trade for oil. You think that has the Fed uptight? Can you cut interest rates when the world is shedding your currency and your Treasury bonds?
There is more in the 52 minute newscast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com for these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 2.3.23.
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After the Wrap-Up
Dr. Betsy Eads will join us to tell you about new vax injury therapies, and also to warn about the dangers of shedding from the vaxed to the unvaxed.
Since last year (2022) I have been warning the public about the new class of “experts” that have arisen since COVID warning about the dangers of the COVID-19 injections, but who endorse and recommend all the other vaccines that have been approved by the FDA for the past 30+ years. The corruption in the pharmaceutical industry and the injection of toxic vaccines that cause injuries and deaths did not begin in 2020 with the COVID shots, and there are many of us who have been warning the public on these killer vaccines for decades now. I have also stated publicly that I am PROUD to be labeled as an “Anti-vaxxer”! Like evil and the Devil, there are just certain things it is good to always be against, because there is nothing good in them. Vaccines have never been proven safe nor effective – none of them. So I was very pleased to see an author on Substack, Marc Girardot, dig up some older information previously published by Neil Z. Miller who years ago exposed the fact that infant deaths due to vaccines are never listed on death certificates, because there are no CDC codes for cause of death due to vaccines. Instead, they are labeled as SIDS (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome). Infant vaccinations have been the likely premier cause of illnesses for over a century.Read More…Recent Data Shows ‘Stunning Increase’ In Serious Harm Reports In Young Healthy Pilots After Introduction of COVID ShotsFebruary 2, 2023 4:45 pm
It’s been a year since four Department of Defense (DOD) whistleblowers found a sudden increase in various diseases in the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED), which coincided directly with the introduction of COVID-19 vaccinations. Now, new data shows more evidence. That’s according to Lt. Col.Theresa Long, M.D., MPH, a board-certified aerospace medicine doctor and Army Brigade flight surgeon with specialty training as an aviation mishap investigator and safety officer, who was one of the four whistleblowers. Long’s background has uniquely equipped her to recognize what she described as “unusual diagnoses and alarming trends only after the introduction of the COVID-19 vaccinations.”Read More…
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