FEB 8/GOLD CLOSED UP $6.15 TO $1878.35//SILVER CLOSED UP 22 CENTS TO $22.37//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $6.10 TO $982.60//PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $3.30 TO $1654.25//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//DR PIERRE KORY INTERVIEWED BY GREG HUNTER A MUST VIEW//////UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//SCOTT RITTER ON THE BACKGROUND TO THE USE OF TANKS//SWAMP STORIES//
072 C GOLDMAN 3 104 C MIZUHO 1 118 C MACQUARIE FUT 68 132 C SG AMERICAS 3 323 C HSBC 6 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 96 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 58 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 12 661 C JP MORGAN 55 800 C MAREX SPEC 2 4 880 C CITIGROUP 22 905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 166 166
JPMORGAN STOPPED 55/166
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT: 166 NOTICES FOR 16600 OZ or 0.5163 TONNES
total notices so far: 12,725 contracts for 1,272,500 oz (39.580 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR NI OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month :710 for 3,550,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $6.15
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
///HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.22
AT THE SLV// :/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.800 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 522.500 MILLION OZ (THIS IS ALSO A CRIME SCENE@!!!!
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2062 CONTRACTS TO 133,601 AND FURTHER THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR TINY $0.01 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. FOR THE TWO MONTHS, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.01. AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING CONSIDERABLE SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 920 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (0.0 MILLION OZ. ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.775 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 793 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP O// NEW TOTALS STANDING = 3.650 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 5.425 MILLION OZ//// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -349
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 6 days, total 7546 contracts: OR 37,730 MILLION OZ . (1257 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 37.73 MILLION OZ (HUGE)
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 37.73 MILLION OZ/INITIAL//HEADING FOR A RECORD MONTH OF ISSUANCE!!
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2062 DESPITE OUR TINY $0.01 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 793 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 0.54 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP= NEW STANDING: 3.650 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 5.425 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE AN STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 920OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE//
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1557 CONTRACTS TO 439,755 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed –772 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1557 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $5.25 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2900 OZ //NEW STANDING: 42.912 TONNES//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $5.25 IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1061 OI CONTRACTS (3.300 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2618 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 439,755
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1833 CONTRACTS WITH 785CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2618 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1833 CONTRACTS OR 5.7013 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2618 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1557) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1061 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2900 OZ QUEUE JUMP // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :
22,092 CONTRACTS OR 2,209,2000 OZ OR 68.715 TONNES 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3682 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 68.715 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 68.715/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.94% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 68.715 TONNES/INITIAL (HEADING FOR ANOTHER STRONG ISSUANCE)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2062 CONTRACTS OI TO 133,950 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 793 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 793 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 793 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2062 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 793 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1269 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.3 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.01 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.99 PTS OR .49% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 15.18 PTS OR 0.07% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 79.01 PTS OR 0.29% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .36% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.7864 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7937// /Oil UP TO 77.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.21 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 1557 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 439,755 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.25
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2618 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2618 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2618 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1061 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2618LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 1557 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.25. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. TODAY THE SPEC LONGS WERE RINSED OUT!!
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (42.917)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 42.917 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $5.25) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING MANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1061 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 5.7013 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.219 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2800 OZ OR 0.087TONNES//new standing INCREASES TO 42.917 tonnes … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $5.25.
WE HAD -772 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES REMOVED TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1061 CONTRACTS OR 106100 OZ OR 3.300 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 133,606//poor//
final gold volumes/yesterday 188,248/// poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //FEB 8//
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
12,725 notices 1,272,500 39.580 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
xxx oz
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits:
i) Into Delaware 546.567 oz 17 kilobars
ii) Into HSVC 80,377.500 oz 2500 kilobars
total deposits: 80,924.067 oz
customer withdrawals: 0
Adjustments; customer to dealer; 1020.972 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1,239 contracts having lost 45 contracts. We had 73 notices
filed yesterday so we gained 28 contracts or an additional 2800 oz will stand for metal at the comex
March gained 203 contracts to stand to 2184.
April lost 2551 contracts down to 362,062
We had 166 notice(s) filed today for 16600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 166 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 55 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,725 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEBRUARY 1239 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 166 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,379,800 OZ OR 42.917 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of January.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:
No of notices filed so far (12,725 x 100 oz+ 1239 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (166)x 100 oz} which equals 1,379,800 oz standing OR 42.917 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 42.917TONNES. SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 710 x 5,000 oz = 3,550,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(20) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month:710 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB (20 – number of notices served upon today (0) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 3.650 million oz + PREVIOUS 1.775 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 5.425MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES
FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES
FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 920.82 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.8 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 522.5 MILLION OZ//
FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.6 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 519.700 MILLION OZ
FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .200 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 518.10 MILLION OZ.
FEB 3/WITH SILVER $1.23 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.90 MILLION OZ//
FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.11 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.90 MILLION OZ
FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.4 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 519.000 MILLION OZ
JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.5 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 520.400 MILION OZ
JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.900 MILLION OZ.
JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.900 MILLION OZ//
JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 900,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.900 MILLION OZ//
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TO TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.3 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.000 MILLION OZ
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: WHAT!! A MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/( OCCURRED (LATE LAST NIGHT)//INVENTORY RESTS AT 518.70 MILLION OZ//
JAN 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.4 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.7 MILLION OZ//
JAN 20.WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.300 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.15 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.05 MILLION OZ///
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 13/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.5 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.200 MILLION OZ//
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700 MILLION OZ/
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.700MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 6/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.20 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 509.65 MILLION OZ//
JAN 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.10 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.45 MILLION OZ//
JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.55 MILLION OZ/
JAN 3/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 507.85 MILLION OZ/
CLOSING INVENTORY 522.5 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Huge Central bank gold purchases of 1,136 tonnes last year. The world produces around 3500 tonnes per year but only 2600 tonnes if you exclude China and Russia. Once physical gold enters reserves, the huge short positions of bullion banks becomes more pronounced.
a good read
(SchiffGold).
Central Bank Gold Reserves Chart Second-Highest Increase Since 1950 In 2022
Central banks closed out 2022 with reported net purchases of 28 tons of gold in December. Including large unreported purchases, this brought total central bank gold buying in 2022 to 1,136 tons. It was the second-highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, and the 13th straight year of net central bank gold purchases.
China officially started buying gold again in November and made another large purchase of 30 tons in December. That raised China’s total gold reserves to over 2,000 tons for the first time.
The Chinese central bank accumulated 1,448 tons of gold between 2002 and 2019, and then suddenly went silent. Many speculate that the Chinese continued to add gold to its holdings off the books during those silent years.
There has always been speculation that China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
The Central Bank of Türkiye (Turkey) continued its consistent buying in December, adding another 25 tons to its swelling gold reserves. Over the course of 2022, Turkey added about 150 tons of gold to its hoard.
Croatia bought 2 tons of gold after having not reported any changes in its gold reserves since 2001.
After a pause in November, the Reserve Bank of India resumed purchasing gold in December, with a modest 1-ton purchase. India ranks as the ninth largest gold-holding country in the world. Since resuming buying in late 2017, the Reserve Bank of India has purchased over 200 tons of gold. In August 2020, there were reports that the RBI was considering significantly raising its gold reserves.
These purchases were partially offset by large sales by Kazakhstan (29 tons) and Uzbekistan (1 ton). It is not uncommon for banks that buy from domestic production – such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan – to switch between buying and selling.
December purchases brought the total net increase in central bank gold reserves in Q4 to 417 tons. Through the second half of 2022, central banks bought 862 tons of gold.
The total increase in reserves was a combination of reported buying, along with an estimate for significant unreported buying. Central banks that often fail to report purchases include China and Russia. Many analysts believe China is the mystery buyer stockpiling gold to minimize exposure to the dollar. According to the World Gold Council, “Should more information about this unreported activity become available, these estimates may be revised.”
Total 2022 central bank purchases of 1,136 tons represented a 152% increase from 2021. It was the highest level of annual net central bank gold purchases since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971, and the second-highest annual total on record. (The record was in 1967.)
According to the World Gold Council, there are two main drivers behind central bank gold buying — its performance during times of crisis and its role as a long-term store of value.
It’s hardly surprising then that in a year scarred by geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation, central banks opted to continue adding gold to their coffers and at an accelerated pace.”
World Gold Council global head of research Juan Carlos Artigas told Kitco News that the big purchases underscore the fact that gold remains an important asset in the global monetary system.
“Even though gold is not backing currencies anymore, it is still being utilized. Why? Because it is a real asset,” he said.
Globally, central banks have added to net reserves for 13 straight years. In that time, they bought over 6,800 tons of gold.
After record years in 2018 and 2019, central bank gold-buying slowed in 2020 with net purchases totaling about 273 tons. The lower rate of purchases in 2020 was expected given the strength of central bank buying both in 2018 and 2019. The economic chaos caused by the coronavirus pandemic has also impacted the market.
Central bank demand came in at 650.3 tons in 2019. At the time, that was the second-highest level of annual purchases for 50 years, just slightly below the 2018 net purchases of 656.2 tons.
end
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
END
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
end
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.7864
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7937
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.99 PTS OR .49%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 15.18 PTS OR 0.07%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 79.01 PTS OR 0.29%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.06 Euro RISES TO 1.0743 UP 12 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.4880!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 130.93/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.3515%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.226%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.368…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.214//
3j Gold at $1878.60//silver at: 22.39 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 88/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 72.04//
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 130/93/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .488% ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9196–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9878well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.649% UP 1 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.700 UP 1 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,83…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.3275% UP 1 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Dip On Profit Taking After Post-Powell Delta Squeeze
WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 08:12 AM
US futures dipped after Tuesday’s furious last hour reversal rally sparked by Powell’s “disinflation” commentary which refrained from pushing back against investor optimism, even as stocks in Europe and Asia were still buoyant, with the FTSE 100 posting a new record high. S&P 500 eminis slipped 0.4% at 7:45 a.m. while Nasdaq futures were 0.2% lower. The underlying benchmarks jumped 1.3% and 2.1%, respectively, in the latest session as investors brushed off Fed chief Jerome Powell’s comments that borrowing costs may need to peak higher than previously expected, choosing to focus instead on his outlook that 2023 will be a year of significant declines in inflation. The dollar slid, Treasuries reversed some of Tuesday’s losses, and an index of commodities rose a second day.
In premarket trading, Chipotle dropped after its results missed estimates. Microsoft gained, with its market value poised to breach $2 trillion, as analysts raised price targets after it unveiled plans to use artificial intelligence tools to improve online search and browsing. Fortinet soared after the cybersecurity company gave a better-than-expected revenue forecast for 2023. Meanwhile, VF Corp. edged higher as it delivered some positives in its fiscal third-quarter earnings, though analysts say these are masking some weaker areas and a tough outlook for the Vans and North Face owner. Oak Street Health rose 30% to $33.68 after CVS agreed to acquire the elder-care provider for deal an enterprise value of about $10.6 billion. Alibaba surged premarket on news it too was developing a Chat GPT-like robot and currently conducting internal testing on the AI-tool. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Prudential Financial (PRU US) shares decline 3.1% with analysts saying the insurer’s results missed expectations and citing ongoing concerns about the slowing pace at which it is returning capital.
Lumen Technologies (LUMN US) shares fall 13% with analysts seeing a difficult year of transition ahead for the fiber network provider after its Ebitda forecasts missed estimates.
Fortinet (FTNT US) rose 12% after the cybersecurity company gave a better-than-expected revenue forecast for 2023. Analysts noted that demand for its cyber security products remained resilient even as businesses clamp down on IT budgets.
NetEase (NTES US) rises 1.9% and its online education arm Youdao (DAO US) surges 22% in US premarket trading, after Youdao says it’s planning to roll out a demo product similar to ChatGPT soon.
Keep an eye on American Express (AXP US) as Morgan Stanley upgraded the shares to overweight from equal-weight as its consumer-finance analysts shift stock picks toward higher credit quality, sustainable revenue growth and positive operating leverage.
Watch United Rentals (URI US) as it was initiated with an outperform rating and $544 price target at Credit Suisse, which sees a strong outlook underpinned by a robust business model for the equipment-rental group.
Airline stocks may be in focus as Redburn turns more bullish on international airlines than domestic, despite expectations of compressed industry margins as costs rise. Becomes “more positive” on US network carriers given their discounted valuations.
US stocks extended their 2023 rally as traders turn more optimistic about the path of the economy and expect a Fed pivot soon. The rally has been boosted by the stubborn pessimism of noted sellside strategists such as JPM’s Marko Kolanovic, Goldman’s David J. Kostin and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson who have been skeptical of the rally for the last 400 points and are warning of limited upside. At some point they will be right. The outperformance of tech stocks, specifically, is at risk as the Nasdaq 100 Index approaches a bull market and earnings estimates trend lower, with valuations swelling to expensive levels compared with real bond yields.
“I think we need to be careful with how we interpret the market rally we have been seeing,” said Madison Faller, global strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank. “To me it’s not a rally based upon incrementally dovish messaging — I think it’s actually more so that Powell’s message wasn’t incrementally hawkish,” she said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “In the short term, markets are perhaps running a little ahead of themselves in the sense that valuations are starting to look a little stretched.”
During his SOTU speech last night, Joe Biden said he is announcing new standards to require all construction materials used in federal infrastructure projects to be made in America and said the tax system is unfair, while he called for Congress to pass a minimum billionaire tax and proposed to quadruple the tax on corporate stock buybacks. Biden noted he is committed to working with China where it can advance American interests and benefit the world but if China threatens US sovereignty, the US will act to protect the country and also said the US is in the strongest position in decades to compete.
“Another hawkish speech goes unheard,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said of Powell’s comments. “Investors focused on the fact that he appeared just as hawkish as he has always been, that he didn’t promise a 50bp hike at next meeting, and that he said that the Fed won’t actively shrink its balance sheet for at least a few years.”
European stocks rose to their highest level since April, tracking Tuesday’s rally on Wall Street as investors welcomed a balanced tone from Fed Chair Powell. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.8% as corporate earnings also provide support after positive updates from Equinor ASA, Akzo Nobel N.V and ABN AMRO Bank N.V. S&P and Nasdaq futures are both down 0.4%. Here are some of the most notable premarket movers:
ABN Amro shares rise as much as 6.1% after reporting 4Q results ahead of expectations. Analysts said it appears to be a high- quality beat for the Dutch bank
Equinor shares rise as much as 7.3% in early trading, the most in 11 months. The Norwegian energy group’s results are a beat and its shareholder returns appear to be well ahead of what was expected, analysts say
Pandora shares rise as much as 9.2% as the jewelry retailer’s quarterly earnings, organic growth and payouts topped estimates, analysts say
Tate & Lyle shares rise as much as 3% after the company announced stronger-than-expected 2028 performance targets in an update ahead of its capital markets event
Neste shares rise as much as 13%, the most since early March, after the refiner reported 4Q results that RBC said were “strong” amid higher-than-expected renewable products sales margin
Vestas shares gained as much as 3.7% after the world’s largest producer of wind turbines reported results that Jefferies said signaled the Danish company is “slowly turning the corner”
Maersk falls as much as 5.7% before paring losses after the shipping giant’s full-year forecast falls short of estimates, which Citi says will likely drive downgrades in consensus expectations
Societe Generale shares dropped as much as 2.7%, before paring losses, as its shareholder payout fell short of a previously pledged target even as quarterly profit beat estimates
Volkswagen falls as much as 2.7% to lead declines on the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index on Wednesday after the German carmaker’s preliminary results showed cash flow below its target amid supply-chain and logistics disruptions
Handelsbanken shares fall as much as 6.9% after mixed results from the Swedish bank that failed to impress following stronger numbers from peers
TotalEnergies shares decline as much as 3% after the company published 4Q report that RBC viewed as neutral, and “broadly in line” with market expectations
Asian stocks edged higher as traders parsed comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that were seen as dovish, even after he reiterated that further interest rate hikes are needed to curb rising inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.6%, driven by rate-sensitive technology shares. Benchmarks in Taiwan and South Korea advanced, while Japanese, Hong Kong and Chinese shares fluctuated. The Fed chair’s remarks at the Economic Club of Washington offered traders some relief, who were bracing for a more hawkish recalibration of rate expectations. While interest rates in the US will likely continue to rise, “in Asia, China’s recovery and reopening has just happened recently,” Ken Peng, head of Asia Pacific investment strategy at Citi Global Wealth Investments, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “That momentum is there, it’s fairly strong.” Still, the stellar rally in Chinese shares over the past three months has stalled as traders take profit and await fresh catalysts. Meituan led Chinese technology stocks lower Wednesday after a report that short-form video service Douyin would make forays into the food-delivery business.
Japanese stocks fell, with investors assessing disappointing tech earnings and as the yen continued to strengthen. The Nikkei 225 declined 0.3% to 27,606.46 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Topix Index was little changed at 1,983.97. Among the 2,163 stocks in the Topix, 1,138 rose, 886 fell and 139 were unchanged. SoftBank Group shares tumbled 5.1% after the company reported further steep losses in the latest quarter and CEO Masayoshi Son skipped the results call. Nintendo shares slid 7.5% after the electronics maker missed quarterly profit estimates and trimmed its full-year outlook as sales of its Switch game console missed targets. “The yen’s appreciation is offsetting the positive impact of higher U.S. stock prices,” said Tomo Kinoshita, global markets strategist at Invesco. “Earnings are also having a strong impact on the market, as the results seem to confirm that inventory and production adjustments are not completed yet.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, adding to Tuesday’s 0.4% drop, as the greenback weakened against all of its Group- of-10 peers. Scandinavian currencies and the pound were the best performers.
The euro rose to a day high of $1.0761 but remained within yesterday’s range. Bunds eased and the 2-10-year segment of the yield curve added around 2bps.
The pound continued to claw back some of the losses from the end of last week and briefly rose above $1.21. The gilt curve twist steepened modestly. The UK’s demand for workers accelerated for the first time in nine months in January, piling pressure on the Bank of England as it tries to tame inflation.
The Swedish krona rebounded a second day from a 14-year low versus the euro, while mixed data Wednesday could keep demand for straddles elevated in euro-krona ahead of the Riksbank monetary policy decision Thursday. Sweden’s housing market continued to seek a bottom at the start of the year, beset by falling activity after ten months of consecutive price declines
In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve, with gains led by intermediates, steepening the 5s30s spread by 1.5bp on the day and the US 10-year yield down 2bps. US 10-year yields are near middle of day’s range at 3.645% in the early US session, richer by 3bp on the day and outperforming bunds and gilts by 3.5bp and 1bp in the sector Core European markets are underperforming slightly as traders digest the European Central Bank decision Tuesday to introduce a new remuneration ceiling for deposits from May 1. The bund curve bear steepens with 2s10s widening 3.2bps. The US session focus is on the 10-year note auction, following Tuesday’s poor 3-year results. The treasury auction cycle resumes with a $35b 10-year sale at 1 p.m. in New York, and concludes with a $21b 30-year offering on Thursday; they follow a poor 3-year auction on Tuesday, which tailed by 4bp. WI 10-year at 3.625% is 5bp cheaper than January’s stop-out, which traded 0.5bp through the WI level.
Crude futures advance with WTI adding 1.2% to trade near $78.10. Nat gas futures diverge once again while TotalEnergies writes that The tensions on European gas prices seen in 2022 are expected to continue into 2023, as the limited growth in global LNG production is supposed to meet both higher European LNG demand to replace Russian gas received in 2022 and higher Chinese LNG demand. Spot gold rises roughly 0.4% to trade near
Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from several central bank speakers including the Fed’s Williams, Cook, Barr, Bostic, Kashkari and Waller, as well as the ECB’s Knot. Otherwise, data releases include Italian retail sales for December, and earnings releases include Disney and Uber.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,164.75
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 461.83
MXAP up 0.6% to 167.43
MXAPJ up 0.7% to 546.28
Nikkei down 0.3% to 27,606.46
Topix little changed at 1,983.97
Hang Seng Index little changed at 21,283.52
Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,232.11
Sensex up 0.6% to 60,663.61
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,530.07
Kospi up 1.3% to 2,483.64
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.38%
Euro up 0.3% to $1.0755
Brent Futures up 1.1% to $84.64/bbl
Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,884.48
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.35% to 103.06
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
High-frequency traders are often singled out as the culprits behind a lack of prices when markets get jumpy. But the activities of these controversial companies have gained a stamp of approval from the UK’s regulator, at least in currency markets
The BOJ’s negative-rate policy has kept short-term interest rates below zero since 2016, even as global peers shifted to hiking. But it also acts like a tax on yen funds, driving up local demand for foreign currencies to the point that there’s a premium on offer for what’s delivered via the foreign- exchange swap market
The BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is in the twilight of his 10-year tenure. His successor inherits a bond market that is larger than ever, but riddled with wild distortions. The lingering question for Japan is how the central bank can normalize policy
Romania may join Poland and other regional peers this week in holding interest rates steady as policy makers shift attention to risks posed by an economic slowdown even as inflation persists
China’s successful development shows there is another way to modernize, President Xi Jinping said, rejecting any need to “westernize” and doubling down on his goals of increased self reliance and improved social justice
China’s rapid reopening is having an unfortunate side effect for banks — a surge in funding costs to levels not seen in two years. A gauge of overnight borrowing costs climbed to the highest since 2021 on Wednesday, even as the People’s Bank of China pumped short-term cash into the financial system
India’s central bank slowed the pace of interest-rate increases while keeping the door open for further policy tightening to curb core inflation, an approach that aligns with the thinking of peers in the US and Australia. The central bank plans to allow lending and borrowing of government bonds as it seeks to deepen the nation’s $1 trillion debt market
Emerging-market investors were getting excited about a return to Egypt after last month’s devaluation of the pound. A surprise from the central bank has kept them away
Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is working on the assumption general elections will be held in Turkey three months from now despite twin earthquakes devastating much of the southeast this week
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were indecisive and failed to sustain the momentum from Wall St where markets whipsawed as attention centred on Fed Chair Powell before the major US indices eventually closed at session highs as Powell’s two-sided comments proved not to be as hawkish as some feared. ASX 200 was underpinned by strength in financials and with the mining-related industries benefitting from the rebound in underlying commodity prices. Nikkei 225 underperformed with sentiment in Japan pressured by weak earnings reports from the likes of SoftBank, Sharp and Nintendo. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive amid lingering tensions from the spy balloon incident and after China denied a US request for a phone call between defence officials.
Top Asian News
Japan is arranging to relax border control measures for visitors from China as soon as this month and will end blanket testing for all travellers from China upon arrival, but will continue requiring a COVID test before departure from China, according to FNN.
New Zealand PM Hipkins said policy is to be focused on the cost of living and announced that the minimum wage will increase in line with CPI from April.
RBI hiked the Repurchase Rate by 25bps to 6.50% as expected through a 4-2 vote (prev. 5-1) and the MPC kept the policy stance of remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation through a 4-2 vote (prev. 4-2). RBI Governor Das stated further calibrated monetary policy action is warranted and that the situation remains fluid and uncertain, while he added that the stickiness of core inflation is a matter of concern and they need to see a decisive fall in inflation.
Beijing has asked students to wear masks at primary and middle schools, according to Bloomberg.
Japan may opt for milder chip-equipment curbs on China than the US despite agreeing on export curbs, according to a Japanese ruling party lawmaker cited by Reuters.
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, taking advantage of the firmer Wall St. close and shrugging off indecisive APAC trade. Sectors are similarly bid with Energy outperforming given benchmark activity and post-Equinor, though upside is capped by TotalEnergies. Stateside, futures are in modest negative territory paring some of the post-Powell upside ahead of key speakers incl. Fed’s Williams. BIS’ Carstens says a re-think is needed on regulating big tech activities in the financial sector. Adding, it is time to consider tangible operations for direct regulation. Tesla (TSLA) China January deliveries 66.05k, +18% MM, via CPCA; adding, China sold 1.3mln passenger vehicles, -37.9% YY.
Top European News
NIESR cut 2023 UK GDP growth forecast to 0.2% from 0.7% and 2024 GDP to 1.0% from 1.7%, while it sees CPI averaging 8.3% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024 vs. prev. forecast of 8.0% and 3.9%, respectively.
ECB says it will keep capital requirements steady this year. Click here for more detail. ECB’s Enria (supervisory board) says there is no generalised dissatisfaction with internal models, issues with some individual banks. Launched an initiative to simplify internal modes landscape
Vattenfall Operating Profit Rises Despite Big Trading Loss
Top Platinum Miner Says Payouts to Decline as Power Outages Hit
Ukraine Latest: Zelenskiy to Meet Sunak in London on Wednesday
Banco BPM Drops as Conservative Guidance Clouds Income Beat
Man United Surges After Daily Mail Report on Qatari Bid Plan
Fixed Income
EGBs remain underpressure but have lifted off of earlier 135.62 and 104.53 troughs in Bunds and Gilts, perhaps following the morning’s supply which was soft, though not as poor as the US 3yr.
Stateside, USTs have recuperated somewhat from Tuesday’s pressure ahead of numerous Fed speakers and a USD 35bln 10yr sale; yields are slightly softer with action much more pronounced at the short end.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks climb higher as Tuesday’s upside continues with multiple supportive factors for the complex; currently, the benchmarks are firmer by over 1.0%.
Nat gas futures diverge once again while TotalEnergies writes that “The tensions on European gas prices seen in 2022 are expected to continue into 2023, as the limited growth in global LNG production is supposed to meet both higher European LNG demand to replace Russian gas received in 2022 and higher Chinese LNG demand.”.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.2mln (exp. +2.5mln), Gasoline +5.3mln (exp. +1.3mln), Distillate +1.1mln (exp. +0.1mln), Cushing +0.2mln.
UK’s Unite union announced that a 48-hour strike is underway at BP (BP/ LN) Petrofac installations involving around 80 workers, according to Reuters.
Iranian official says OPEC is moving in the correct direction, sees oil prices increasing this year to circa. USD 100/bbl in H2 2023; OPEC+ likely to continue existing policy at the next gathering.
India’s Oil Minister says the OPEC SecGen has invited India to the next OPEC+ meeting.
Qatar set March Marine Crude OSP at +0.40/bbl vs Oman/Dubai; sets Land crude at +1.10/bbl vs Oman/Dubai, according to a document cited by Reuters; Iraq sets March Basrah Medium crude price to Asia at -1.10/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average; Europe OSP -6.95/bbl vs dated Brent, according to SOMO.
Activity at Peru’s major copper mines are at or near normal levels in spite of social unrest, according to data reviewed by Reuters; MMG’s Las Bambas mine elevated after last-minute supplies to avert the expected halt, but could still face production halt in the coming days as inputs are running out.
Spot gold is firmer, though off best levels as the DXY picks up from session lows below 103.00 and as such gold remains circa. USD 15/oz from USD 1900/oz at best.
LME aluminium lags and eyes USD 2,500/t to the downside following an exceptionally large warehouse build of 105.6k (vs prev. -2k).
FX
The USD continues to ease post-Powell though the DXY has lifted comfortably above 103.00 after briefly matching Tuesday’s 102.99 trough.
Amidst this, G10 peers are firmer across the board with GBP outperforming slightly and Cable incrementally above 1.21 courtesy of EUR/GBP action amid slightly tamer action for the single currency.
AUD is seemingly experiencing a modest second-wind post-RBA and ahead of Friday’s SOMP; AUD/USD tested 0.70 and NZD/USD at the upper-end of 0.6310-0.6348 parameters.
SEK is relatively contained despite mixed data ahead of the Riksbank while EUR/NOK has tested 11.00 to the downside at best.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7752 vs exp. 6.7758 (prev. 6.7967)
BoC Governor Macklem flagged the debt load in explaining the early rate pause and said that rate hikes have hit homeowners hard, while the BoC needs time to gauge how households and businesses adapt to higher rates before making further moves. Macklem also commented that they cannot put it on a calendar and do not know how long the duration of the rate pause will be, according to Bloomberg.
Geopolitics
US Pentagon said China declined a US request for a phone call between the Pentagon chief and China’s defence minister, according to Reuters.
Russia says it is not satisfied with the progress of unblocking Russian exports as part of the Ukrainian grain deal and the EU is not fulfilling its promises on this, via Tass citing a diplomat.
Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russia will decide countermeasures to the EU sanctions by March 1; Russian oil output in February has been in line with January levels; January production stood at 9.8-9.9mln BPD.
Russia Foreign Ministry says US demands to restart nuclear arms treaty inspections are cynical because it is assisting Kyiv in striking Russian targets; adds, the US’ actions, in respect to Russia, are fraught with real risk of direct confrontation between the two nuclear states, according to Ria
UK PM Sunak says he will offer to provide Ukraine with longer-range capabilities. Note, Ukrainian President Zelensky is visiting the UK today and will be meeting with PM Sunak.
US Event Calendar
07:00: Feb. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -9.0%
10:00: Dec. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.6%
10:00: Dec. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
Fed speakers
09:15: Fed’s Williams Interviewed at WSJ Live Event
09:30: Fed’s Cook Takes Part in a Discussion in Washington
10:00: Fed’s Barr and Bostic Speak to Students in Mississippi
12:30: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Boston Economic Club
13:45: Fed’s Waller Discusses the Economic Outlook
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from Paris where I’m staying at a hotel I last stayed in 3.5 years ago. All I can say is that the room service menu has soared in price since I was last here. As such after a cancelled dinner and a long day of no food I roamed the back streets of the Arc De Triomphe searching for something suitable. I gambled on a bagel shop. I got it back to my room and it was disgusting. The glamour of international business travel. I have a client breakfast, lunch and dinner today so I’m expecting much better!
Yesterday was all about the wait for Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Washington, and then the interpretation of it. It’s a bit of a generalisation, and my views were scarred by 2 horrible bagels, but I would say the more the FOMC press conference went on last Wednesday the more dovish Powell sounded. However, last night’s speech was a little bit of the reverse. When all was said and done though, relative to pre-Powell levels terminal didn’t move much, rates moved a bit higher and equities saw an impressive climb (+1.29%). There was a fair bit of vol during the speech with the S&P trading in a wide 1.8pp range, while 10yr Treasuries traded in a 6bps range. The key market theme was that equities seemed to breathe a big sigh of relief that he didn’t choose this moment to notably change the script post payrolls. There was some fear that he would.
To review his comments, Powell continued to repeat last week’s FOMC mantra that further rate hikes were needed in order to rein in inflation and that policy would have to stay tight for some time. While directly addressing last week’s report he said it “shows you why we think this will be a process that takes a significant period of time … the labour market is extraordinarily strong”. He then spent a good deal of time referencing back to his comments from the FOMC press conference. These opening remarks caused the market to initially turn risk on with the S&P up 1.2% and 2yr yields moving -9bps lower after the first 30 minutes of the interview. However, Powell then pointed out that if the labour market remains strong “it may well be the case that we have to do more.” This seemed to signal to markets that a further 50bps of hikes is the floor for fed funds with risks to the upside on labour or inflation data coming out higher than expected. This caused a quick reversal with the S&P 500 dropping nearly -2% and 2yr yields climbing +8bps in the span of a half hour.
However, once Powell had wrapped up, both moves were retraced throughout the rest of the US afternoon with the S&P finishing near the highs of the day, and higher than during the peak of Powell’s interview, at +1.29%. Meanwhile the policy-sensitive 2yr yield sold off with yields finishing flat at 4.46% and 10yr yields +3.4bps higher at 3.67% (although -2.2bps lower this morning in Asia). Even with Powell raising the spectre of a higher terminal rate than the Fed had previously signalled, fed future pricing actually dropped ever so slightly with the July meeting closing at an implied fed funds rate of 5.153%, down 0.05bps. We’ve actually dipped -2.5bps this morning.
Digging into the market reaction more, it was a very risk-on rally with 70% of the S&P 500 higher on the day, with technology the leader once again. Semiconductors (+3.2%), Media (+3.1%), Energy (+3.1%) and Software (+2.6%) were the best performing sectors, while the only laggards were defensives like Telecoms (-1.2%), Household Goods (-0.7%) and Food & Beverage (-0.5%). The VIX volatility index finished near the lows of the day at 18.6pts.
There was also a larger risk on move in commodities with Brent crude oil up +3.33% to $83.69/bbl and WTI up +4.09% to $77.37/bbl following news that Saudi Aramco is increasing the prices of fuel shipments to Asia starting in March on the back of heightened demand. The move took another leg higher following the general risk-on sentiment following Powell’s remarks. The rise in oil and copper (+1.13%) due to China’s reopening meant that the Bloomberg Commodity index (+1.35%) rose by its largest amount since December 13.
Before Powell, markets had extended the hawkish shift seen since payrolls. First, the other central bankers we heard from continued to lean towards further rate hikes, with Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari saying that “right now I’m still at around 5.4%” on where rates needed to go. That would imply the Fed needs to do another 25bp move on top of current market pricing. Separately, Bundesbank President Nagel said that “more significant rate increases will be needed”, and pushed back on an imminent pause in saying that “I don’t see that our work is done with this rate hike in March.”
On top of those remarks, various pieces of data signalled that the battle against inflation was far from over. For instance, Manheim’s index of US used-vehicle prices was up by +2.5% in January, marking its strongest monthly increase since November 2021. Bear in mind that used cars and trucks make up over 4% of core CPI, and we’ve seen 6 consecutive monthly declines in that component, so any reversal there would help push up the overall numbers. Back in Europe, we also had the ECB’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey for December. That showed 12-month expectations for inflation remaining unchanged at 5.0%, and 3yr expectations moved back up a tenth to 3.0%, so still a full point above their target even at a medium-term horizon. And finally on the growth side, the recent strong data in the US saw the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker increase its Q1 growth estimate to an annualised +2.1%, up from +0.7% previously. A month ago many had a flat or negative quarter pencilled in for Q1.
Ahead of Powell, the more hawkish newsflow had led European sovereigns to lose ground for a 3rd consecutive day, with yields on 10yr bunds (+5.3bps), OATs (+4.7bps) and BTPs (+7.1bps) all moving higher. Those movements accelerated into the close after we heard that the ECB were adjusting the remuneration on government deposits, which would now have a ceiling of the euro short-term rate (€STR) minus 20bps. Previously, it had been whichever was lower of the deposit rate or the €STR. The aim is to encourage an orderly reduction in these deposits, which they said is “in order to minimise the risk of adverse effects on market functioning and ensure the smooth transmission of monetary policy”. Otherwise, European equities were pretty subdued yesterday, with the DAX (-0.16%) and the CAC 40 (-0.07%) posting small losses, whilst the STOXX 600 (+0.23%) saw a modest advance. This was all pre-Powell.
Asian equity markets are mixed overnight. As I type, the KOSPI (+1.39%) is leading gains with the Hang Seng also trading in positive territory. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.43%) is lagging its peers following disappointing quarterly earnings from Nintendo, Softbank and Sharp Corp. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are muted with the CSI (+0.01%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.05%) fluctuating between gains and losses.
Outside of Asia, US stock futures are wavering with contracts tied the S&P 500 (-0.03%) fractionally lower and those on the NASDAQ 100 (+0.06%) just above flat.
President Biden delivered his State of the Union address last night, in which he promised that the US would not hit the debt ceiling and default on its debts. As expected President Biden called for increased taxes on stock buybacks as well as billionaires, while also touting efforts to near-shore American manufacturing that is aligned to critical supply chains. It probably wasn’t the most dramatic State of the Union address which might be partly due to US political gridlock.
Finally back to yesterday and it was another quiet day on the data front, but the US trade deficit came in at $67.4bn in December (vs. $68.5bn expected). Elsewhere, German industrial production for December underwhelmed with a -3.1% contraction (vs. -0.8% expected).
To the day ahead now, and we’ll hear from several central bank speakers including the Fed’s Williams, Cook, Barr, Bostic, Kashkari and Waller, as well as the ECB’s Knot. Otherwise, data releases include Italian retail sales for December, and earnings releases include Disney and Uber.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
US futures ease post-Powell and ahead of key speakers incl. Fed’s Williams – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 06:26 AM
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, taking advantage of the Wall St. close and shrugging off indecisive APAC trade.
Stateside, futures are in modest negative territory paring some of the post-Powell upside ahead of key speakers incl. Fed’s Williams.
The USD continues to ease post-Powell though the DXY has lifted comfortably above 103.00 after briefly matching Tuesday’s 102.99 trough.
EGBs remain under pressure but have lifted off of initial 135.62 and 104.53 lows in Bunds and Gilts, perhaps following the morning’s supply which was soft, though not as poor as the US 3yr.
Crude benchmarks climb higher as Tuesday’s upside continues with multiple supportive factors for the complex; currently, the benchmarks are firmer by over 1.0%.
Looking ahead, highlights include BoC Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Cook, Barr, Bostic, Kashkari & Waller, Supply from the US, Earnings from CVS Health, Disney, Uber & Goodyear Tire.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, taking advantage of the firmer Wall St. close and shrugging off indecisive APAC trade.
Sectors are similarly bid with Energy outperforming given benchmark activity and post-Equinor, though upside is capped by TotalEnergies.
Stateside, futures are in modest negative territory paring some of the post-Powell upside ahead of key speakers incl. Fed’s Williams.
BIS’ Carstens says a re-think is needed on regulating big tech activities in the financial sector. Adding, it is time to consider tangible operations for direct regulation.
Tesla (TSLA) China January deliveries 66.05k, +18% MM, via CPCA; adding, China sold 1.3mln passenger vehicles, -37.9% YY.
The USD continues to ease post-Powell though the DXY has lifted comfortably above 103.00 after briefly matching Tuesday’s 102.99 trough.
Amidst this, G10 peers are firmer across the board with GBP outperforming slightly and Cable incrementally above 1.21 courtesy of EUR/GBP action amid slightly tamer action for the single currency.
AUD is seemingly experiencing a modest second-wind post-RBA and ahead of Friday’s SOMP; AUD/USD tested 0.70 and NZD/USD at the upper-end of 0.6310-0.6348 parameters.
SEK is relatively contained despite mixed data ahead of the Riksbank while EUR/NOK has tested 11.00 to the downside at best.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7752 vs exp. 6.7758 (prev. 6.7967)
BoC Governor Macklem flagged the debt load in explaining the early rate pause and said that rate hikes have hit homeowners hard, while the BoC needs time to gauge how households and businesses adapt to higher rates before making further moves. Macklem also commented that they cannot put it on a calendar and do not know how long the duration of the rate pause will be, according to Bloomberg.
EGBs remain underpressure but have lifted off of earlier 135.62 and 104.53 troughs in Bunds and Gilts, perhaps following the morning’s supply which was soft, though not as poor as the US 3yr.
Stateside, USTs have recuperated somewhat from Tuesday’s pressure ahead of numerous Fed speakers and a USD 35bln 10yr sale; yields are slightly softer with action much more pronounced at the short end.
Crude benchmarks climb higher as Tuesday’s upside continues with multiple supportive factors for the complex; currently, the benchmarks are firmer by over 1.0%.
Nat gas futures diverge once again while TotalEnergies writes that “The tensions on European gas prices seen in 2022 are expected to continue into 2023, as the limited growth in global LNG production is supposed to meet both higher European LNG demand to replace Russian gas received in 2022 and higher Chinese LNG demand.”.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.2mln (exp. +2.5mln), Gasoline +5.3mln (exp. +1.3mln), Distillate +1.1mln (exp. +0.1mln), Cushing +0.2mln.
UK’s Unite union announced that a 48-hour strike is underway at BP (BP/ LN) Petrofac installations involving around 80 workers, according to Reuters.
Iranian official says OPEC is moving in the correct direction, sees oil prices increasing this year to circa. USD 100/bbl in H2 2023; OPEC+ likely to continue existing policy at the next gathering.
India’s Oil Minister says the OPEC SecGen has invited India to the next OPEC+ meeting.
Qatar set March Marine Crude OSP at +0.40/bbl vs Oman/Dubai; sets Land crude at +1.10/bbl vs Oman/Dubai, according to a document cited by Reuters; Iraq sets March Basrah Medium crude price to Asia at -1.10/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average; Europe OSP -6.95/bbl vs dated Brent, according to SOMO.
Activity at Peru’s major copper mines are at or near normal levels in spite of social unrest, according to data reviewed by Reuters; MMG’s Las Bambas mine elevated after last-minute supplies to avert the expected halt, but could still face production halt in the coming days as inputs are running out.
Spot gold is firmer, though off best levels as the DXY picks up from session lows below 103.00 and as such gold remains circa. USD 15/oz from USD 1900/oz at best.
LME aluminium lags and eyes USD 2,500/t to the downside following an exceptionally large warehouse build of 105.6k (vs prev. -2k).
NIESR cut 2023 UK GDP growth forecast to 0.2% from 0.7% and 2024 GDP to 1.0% from 1.7%, while it sees CPI averaging 8.3% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024 vs. prev. forecast of 8.0% and 3.9%, respectively.
ECB says it will keep capital requirements steady this year. Click here for more detail. ECB’s Enria (supervisory board) says there is no generalised dissatisfaction with internal models, issues with some individual banks. Launched an initiative to simplify internal modes landscape
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Biden said he is announcing new standards to require all construction materials used in federal infrastructure projects to be made in America and said the tax system is unfair, while he called for Congress to pass a minimum billionaire tax and proposed to quadruple the tax on corporate stock buybacks. President Biden noted he is committed to working with China where it can advance American interests and benefit the world but if China threatens US sovereignty, the US will act to protect the country and also said the US is in the strongest position in decades to compete.
Bitcoin is little changed overall and resides towards the mid-point of a narrow sub-400 band with fresh developments limited.
GEOPOLITICS
US Pentagon said China declined a US request for a phone call between the Pentagon chief and China’s defence minister, according to Reuters.
Russia says it is not satisfied with the progress of unblocking Russian exports as part of the Ukrainian grain deal and the EU is not fulfilling its promises on this, via Tass citing a diplomat.
Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russia will decide countermeasures to the EU sanctions by March 1; Russian oil output in February has been in line with January levels; January production stood at 9.8-9.9mln BPD.
Russia Foreign Ministry says US demands to restart nuclear arms treaty inspections are cynical because it is assisting Kyiv in striking Russian targets; adds, the US’ actions, in respect to Russia, are fraught with real risk of direct confrontation between the two nuclear states, according to Ria
UK PM Sunak says he will offer to provide Ukraine with longer-range capabilities. Note, Ukrainian President Zelensky is visiting the UK today and will be meeting with PM Sunak.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were indecisive and failed to sustain the momentum from Wall St where markets whipsawed as attention centred on Fed Chair Powell before the major US indices eventually closed at session highs as Powell’s two-sided comments proved not to be as hawkish as some feared.
ASX 200 was underpinned by strength in financials and with the mining-related industries benefitting from the rebound in underlying commodity prices.
Nikkei 225 underperformed with sentiment in Japan pressured by weak earnings reports from the likes of SoftBank, Sharp and Nintendo.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive amid lingering tensions from the spy balloon incident and after China denied a US request for a phone call between defence officials.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japan is arranging to relax border control measures for visitors from China as soon as this month and will end blanket testing for all travellers from China upon arrival, but will continue requiring a COVID test before departure from China, according to FNN.
New Zealand PM Hipkins said policy is to be focused on the cost of living and announced that the minimum wage will increase in line with CPI from April.
RBI hiked the Repurchase Rate by 25bps to 6.50% as expected through a 4-2 vote (prev. 5-1) and the MPC kept the policy stance of remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation through a 4-2 vote (prev. 4-2). RBI Governor Das stated further calibrated monetary policy action is warranted and that the situation remains fluid and uncertain, while he added that the stickiness of core inflation is a matter of concern and they need to see a decisive fall in inflation.
Beijing has asked students to wear masks at primary and middle schools, according to Bloomberg.
Japan may opt for milder chip-equipment curbs on China than the US despite agreeing on export curbs, according to a Japanese ruling party lawmaker cited by Reuters.
1.c WEDNESDAY/ TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.99 PTS OR .49% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 15.18 PTS OR 0.07% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 79.01 PTS OR 0.29% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .36% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.7864 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.7937// /Oil UP TO 77.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.21 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/
Japan has a demographic problem as Japanese women are having 1.3 children instead of what is needed 2.1
This forces Japan to reach out to foreign workers and now this category reaches a record high!
(zerohedge)
Number Of Foreign Workers In Japan Reaches Record High
TUESDAY, FEB 07, 2023 – 09:30 PM
The number of foreigners working in Japan has reached a new high of almost 1.7 million.
As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, after years of slow growth in the number of foreign workers admitted into the country, Japan has increased its efforts to attract them in the past couple of years.
Immigrants, mainly from developing Asian countries, but also from the West, are now coming to Japan in larger numbers. Since 2014, the number of foreigners working in Japan has more than doubled, according to data by MHLW Japan (link in Japanese). The Japanese government revised immigration and refugee recognition laws in early 2019 with the aim of accepting an additional 340,000 workers to the country. Some special provisions were also taken to attract nurses, restaurant workers and laborers. In December of 2019, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe und his cabinet had already adopted measures to foster the coexistence of Japanese and foreign nationals that came at a price tag of US$55.3 million.
In the light of all this, it appears the country is indeed serious about a more multicultural future. Still, this new vision of Japanese society might be a hard sell: The measures adopted have drawn some controversy and have even led to kerfuffles during parliamentary debates. Right-wing politicians slammed the reform saying it would bring in crime and destroy the homogenous Japanese society.
3c CHINA /
CHINA/
In 2018 China produced a high altitude balloon dropping hypersonic weapons.
(Thornebrooke/EpochTimes)
Balloon With 3 Hypersonic Missiles Tested By China In 2018
The stunning footage displays a high-altitude balloon, not dissimilar from the one that traversed over the United States last week, carrying three hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) into high altitude and dropping them for testing.
Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported on the weapons test in September 2018. The footage has since been deleted from Chinese media, but photographs and short clips can still be found online.
In one post from 2018, a Twitter user shared footage from Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, which shows the balloon lifting the three HGVs from the ground.
HGVs are generally launched by rockets in a similar manner to traditional missiles. Upon reaching orbit, however, HGVs detach from the rocket and fly through the atmosphere using their own momentum.
Such weapons are much faster than other missiles while they are in low orbit, but become much slower upon hitting the dense air of the atmosphere as they have no jets to power them. The three HGVs dropped by the balloon in the footage appear to have been designed to test this phenomenon.
The balloon-dropped HGVs were part of an effort to develop precision warheads for hypersonic weapons, which would give the Chinese military an “unstoppable nuclear-capable weapon,” according to the South China Morning Post.
French strikes halt fuel shipments from refineries. The French are protesting the raising of the age for receiving pensions from 62 to 64
(zerohedge)
French Strikes Halt Fuel Shipments From Refineries And A Fuel Depot
WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 02:45 AM
The French nationwide strike over proposed pension reform (Macron is seeking to raise the retirement age from 62 to, gasp, 64; the French say “non”) which we profiled last week, interrupted on Tuesday the shipment of fuels from refineries and a fuel depot of TotalEnergies, the French supermajor told Reuters.
Workers and employees in various sectors, including the energy sector, civil servants, and teachers, have been staging strikes for weeks to protest against President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age.
Workers at the oil refineries at Donges and Feyzin, operated by TotalEnergies, are on strike today, a representative of the Force Ouvriere trade union told Reuters. Workers at the fuel depot Flandres have also joined the massive industrial action in France, the official added.
As Oilprice notes, this is not the first time that fuel deliveries have been disrupted by strikes this year.
Two weeks ago, the strike in France halted wholesale fuel deliveries from three refineries operated by TotalEnergies on the first day of a series of planned nationwide strikes in many sectors. The Donges, Normandy, and Feyzin refineries of TotalEnergies stopped the wholesale supply of gasoline and diesel, while the refinery at Feyzin had to reduce processing rates to a minimum on January 19.
TotalEnergies and the French unit of ExxonMobil hold most of the refining capacity in France. The strikes against Macron’s unpopular pension reform are expected to continue.
The most recent wave of strikes comes three months after refinery workers went on strike for weeks in September and October amid a pay row. Strikes at refineries in France in the autumn of 2022 left more than 60% of the country’s refining capacity offline while gas stations in and around Paris and in the northern part of the country began to run out of fuel.
The strikes against the planned pension reform also come just as the EU banned imports of petroleum products from Russia as of February 5.
UK
end
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
NATO//UKRAINE/RUSSIA
An excellent commentary from Scott Ritter
(zerohedge)
Truth About Tanks: How NATO Lied Its Way To Disaster In Ukraine
Tank warfare has evolved. The large force-on-force armored battles that were the hallmark of much of WWII, the Arab-Israeli conflicts, which served as the foundation of operational doctrine for both NATO and the Soviet Union (and which was implemented in full by the United States during Operation Desert Storm in 1991), has run its course.
Like most military technological innovations, the ability to make a modern main battle tank survivable has been outstripped by the fielding of defensive systems designed to overcome such defenses. If a modern military force attempted to launch a large-scale tank-dominated attack against a well-equipped peer-level opponent armed with modern anti-tank missiles, the result would be a decisive defeat for the attacking party marked by the smoking hulks of burned-out tanks.
Don’t get me wrong: tanks still have a vital role to play on the modern battlefield. Their status as a mobile bunker is invaluable in the kind of meat-grinder conflicts of attrition that have come to define the current stage of large-scale ground combat. Speed and armor still contribute to survivability, and the main gun of a tank remains one of the deadliest weapons on the modern battlefield.
But the modern tank performs best as part of a combined arms team, supported by infantry (mounted and unmounted) and copious amounts of supporting arms (artillery and close air support.) As part of such a team, especially one that is well-trained in the art of close combat, the tank remains an essential weapon of war. However, if operated in isolation, a tank is simply an expensive mobile coffin.
Much has been made about the recent decision made by NATO and allied nations to provide Western main battle tanks to Ukraine. The politics of this decision is its own separate topic. This article will address the operational practicalities of this decision, namely has the military capability of Ukraine been enhanced through the provision of these new weapons systems.
To answer this question, one needs to examine three basic issues: training, logistical sustainability, and operational employment.
Training
It takes 22 weeks to train a basic American M1 Abrams crewmember. That training just gives the soldier the very basic skill set to be functional. Actual operational expertise is only achieved through months, if not years, of additional training in not just the system itself, but employing it as part of a similarly trained combine arms team. Simply put, even a Ukrainian tank crew experienced in the operation of Soviet-era T-72 or T-64 tanks will not be able to immediately transition to a Western-style main battle tank.
T-72B3M main battle tanks from the 1st Guards Tank Regiment at Red Square
First and foremost, the crew size of a Soviet-era tank is three, reflecting the reality that the Soviet tanks make use of an automatic loading mechanism. Western tanks have four crew members because the loading of the main tank gun is done manually. Adapting to these dynamics takes time, and requires extensive training.
Training is expensive. NATO is currently providing Ukraine with three types of Western main battle tank: the British Challenger 2, the German Leopard 2, and the American M1A2. There is no unified training course—each tank requires its own unique training prospectus that is not directly transferable to another system.
The decentralized training processes created by such a diverse approach promotes inefficiencies and generates discrepancies in outcome—one crew will not be like another, which in combat, where units are supposed to be interchangeable to promote predictable outcomes if all other circumstances remain the same, is usually fatal.
Moreover, these problems will only be enhanced by the emphasis that will be placed on rapid outcomes. The reality is whatever training programs that are developed and delivered by the nations providing the tanks will be insufficient to the task, resulting in poorly trained crews taking extremely complicated weapons systems into the most dangerous environment in the world for a tank—the teeth of a Russian Army designed and equipped to kill these very same tanks.
Logistical Sustainability
Tanks are among the most technically challenging weapons systems on a modern battlefield. They are constantly breaking down, especially if not properly maintained. For the M1 Abrams, for every hour a tank is in the field, there are three hours of maintenance time required. This problem only becomes magnified in combat.
Normally an armor unit is equipped with highly specialized organic maintenance crews that can repair most of the minor issues that can sideline a tank. Given the training requirements to produce this level of high-quality mechanic, it is unlikely Ukraine will be provided with this kind of maintenance support.
A Ukrainian artilleryman throws an empty 155MM shell tube as Ukrainian soldiers fire a M777 howitzer towards Russian positions on the frontline of eastern Ukraine, on November 23, 2022.
This means that the tanks that are being provided to Ukraine will need to be returned to NATO nations for any significant repairs of equipment that is damaged through simple usage or actual combat. In short, it is highly likely that a Western main battle tank in Ukrainian hands will break down at some point during its operational use by Ukraine, meaning that the total number of tanks available to Ukraine will be far less than the number of tanks provided.
Operational Employment
Ukraine’s commander in chief of the Armed Forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, told The Economist last month that he needed 300 tanks, 500 infantry fighting vehicles, and 500 artillery pieces, if he were going to have any chance of defeating [Russia].
Following the January 20 meeting of the Ramstein Contact Group, and subsequent follow-on discussions about the provision of tanks, NATO and its allied partners have agreed to provide less than 50% of the number of tanks requested, less than 50% of the number of infantry fighting vehicles requested, and less than 20% of the artillery requested.
Moreover, the timetable for delivery of this equipment is staggered incoherently over a period that stretches out for many months, and in some cases extends into the next year. Not only does this complicate training and logistical sustainability issues that are already unfavorably inclined for Ukraine, but it makes any meaningful effort to integrate this material into a cohesive operational employment plan all but impossible. In short, Ukraine will be compelled to commit the equipment provided—especially the tanks—into combat in piecemeal fashion.
The truth about tanks is that NATO and its allied nations are making Ukraine weaker, not stronger, by providing them with military systems that are overly complicated to operate, extraordinarily difficult to maintain, and impossible to survive unless employed in a cogent manner while supported by extensive combined arms partners.
The decision to provide Ukraine with Western main battle tanks is, literally, a suicide pact, something those who claim they are looking out for the best interests of Ukraine should consider before it is too late.
end
Turkey
Istanbul stock exchange halted as the death toll climbs above 11,000
(zerohedge)
Turkish Stock Market Closed For Another Week After Quake Devastation
WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 09:41 AM
Update (0941ET):
Turkey’s stock exchange will lift a trading halt on Feb. 15, according to a statement released by Borsa Istanbul.
Following Monday’s devastating quakes, the trading suspension came after a $35 billion wipeout of market value in main equities.
Meanwhile, in New York, iShares MSCI Turkey Exchange Traded Fund, the largest ETF concentrated on Turkish stocks, is down nearly 6% this morning.
Turkish stocks can still be traded — just through US ETFs.
And somehow, the Turkish lira is magically supported through the worst quake devastation in decades.
* * *
Turkey’s stock exchange halted trading of equities and derivatives Wednesday (for the first time in two decades) after a multi-day selloff wiped tens of billions of dollars from the value of its main equities following Monday’s powerful quakes that killed more than 11,000 in the quake-stricken areas of southern Turkey and Syria.
“Our stock exchange has decided to halt trading in equities, futures, and options markets,” Borsa Istanbul wrote in a statement Wednesday. There was no timeline on when trading would resume.
The Borsa Istanbul 100 index plunged by 7.1% in today’s trading as traders fear widespread damage to infrastructure, logistical problems, and a partial shutdown of the economy could severely impact economic growth in the months ahead. Since the quake, the leading equity index has lost 16.24%. The index has also tumbled into a bear market after peaking in January.
The week-to-date loss of 16% puts the index on track for the worst week since October 2008.
In New York, iShares MSCI Turkey Exchange Traded Fund, the largest ETF concentrated on Turkish stocks, tumbled 5.2% in premarket trading.
Meanwhile, the Turkish lira was stable against the dollar as its tightly managed by the central bank.
“At times of catastrophes like this, suspending trading in the stock market is a better decision in order to protect investors,” Haydar Acun, managing partner of Marmara Capital in Istanbul, told Bloomberg.
The latest death toll figures from the NYTimes topped 11,000 in quake-stricken areas of Turkey and Syria.
Rescue crews have so far pulled out more than 8,000 people from collapsed buildings. The quake severely damaged 11,000 buildings — many of which are multi-family structures.
end
Military Tactic – Demonizing World Leaders to Create War | Armstrong Economics
Robert Hryniak
10:17 AM (14 minutes ago)
to
Sadly, many of us are so busy dealing with life’s challenges daily that the global view of Global events is distant in our minds. However, everything in this world of ours is connected. We all are clogs on much bigger wheel of life than our own, often not understood by us. It matters not whether you go to work or visit the current protests in Paris or sit watching the waves in West Palm Beach or listen to the sounds of the African savanna. It is all connected and we are all human and bleed the same color of blood. It is why we are all of one heart, the heart of mankind and there is no difference. It really matters not where one travels we are all wanting and traveling on a shared road of life.
To see the demonization of Russians today is pitiful, just like same negative Chinese attitude starting to rise over the hysterical drumming from DC over a lousy balloon. It really is a time for humanity to wake up. The same clowns that have led us and our ancestors to war are at it again to to cover up their mistakes, not ours. And we should not allow them to make us pay with our blood or that of loved ones, for their errors and greed. They have stolen, pillaged and lied and killed in the glory of Western Dominance and this is tragic. Their debts are theirs and not the debt of citizens, so it is fitting they be allowed to face a debtor’s fate of being a deadbeat. Because the West leadership failed to be a brother’s brother and instead became a brother’s keeper for political and personal gain. Thus, denying many people the opportunity of success. And now, by their own hand have run out of runway to continue. It is why, what is called the Global South which is 80% of the world’s population wants out and wants nothing to do with such behavior. Perhaps, they are more aware having suffered and more attentive to watching and listening than we have been in the West. We have many bridges to build to regain trust and respect and this is possible with time, money spent and a open hand of brotherhood where actions speak not words.
Today, in order to rebuild so many places and industries, the focus must be on working hand in hand to create new decentralized spheres of activity based on communities and not centralized control. The age of globalism is dead! Let it lie where it has fallen. The recent con job of the MInsk Accords stands as one of the most despicable events in modern history. The actions of Merkel and Macron as vassals or coconspirators with America, Britain and others to con Russia to allow the building of a proxy army in Ukraine to fight Russia to destroy Russia and it’s culture is simply appalling. And history will not be kind to either Macron or Merkel. Perhaps history will write how the public slept while being led to war. And whether their citizens forgive them for the ills they suffer and will suffer remains to be seen.
If WWIII really is allowed to come into existence, life everywhere will change beyond imagination in horror of what life will be. There will be no one who will not be affected. And so called leaders will find themselves missing a chair as there will be no one to lead, including themselves. Yes, Ukraine is and will be sacrificed and no doubt Zelensky will get new orders on his current English visit. The unknown question is whether Europe and the rest of the world will be upon the altar of sacrifice. Because when the 1st nuke flies, the time for reflection or change of attitude will have disappeared.
An excellent interview on the Ukraine and the gong show in DC., worth listening to, if there is interest. Because he is one of very few people who gets it right.
Consumer spending hit a brick wall in the US, EU, UK and Australia. Guess what that means…
Is the global consumer starting to capitulate?
Not Just EU
What About Australia?
“There are limits to the amount of spending that can continue when savings is being drawn down.“
“If these PCE figures are accurate, it looks like consumers may be moving faster than originally guessed.”
Question and Answer of the Day
“If the consumer capitulates, what will drive growth?”
Welcome to the Global Recession!
Bob Elliott and I have been in a running debate for a couple of months over jobs and a recession.
I follow him because he always makes a strong case for his point of view: No Recession.
Elliott is very data dependent, and cautious. This is the first I have seen him waver.
My “welcome” comment was not intended to be mocking, it’s simply how I feel.
To be fair, I was early again, but not as early as some. I did not bite on the two consecutive quarters of negative GDP to start the year, but I did pencil in a recession starting in May.
In October, retail sales forced me to admit my error. But in December, industrial production and retail sales put me back in the recession camp.
Let’s go over the data.
Signs Say Industrial Production Has Peaked and so a Recession is Imminent
Data is consistent with a recession starting in November or December.
When is the last time housing was down for a full year, industrial production down two months, and real spending down two months and the the economy was not in recession?
Factor in a decline in consumer spending in the EU, UK, and Australia and where are US exports headed?
And with consumer spending falling off the cliff, how long will jobs stay strong? Strong enough to prevent a recession that history suggests has already started?
Pilots & flight attendants are very concerned as Yoder says “the ticking time bomb”; pilots in stressful cockpit emergencies & adrenalin flooding bloodstream & silent myocarditis then cardiac arrest!
Dr. Peter Breggin & his wife Ms. Ginger Breggin deserve huge praise for writing seminal about these 2 papers; thank you for being so detailed and prescient! These 2 papers tell us all we need to know
These two papers show the close tie between Chinese and America researchers collaborating to make SARS-CoV viruses through deadly and illegal gain-of-function research. With NIH and US researchers and Fauci and Francis Collins hands all over it. I include them again, reminded by Dr. Breggin and here are the abstracts and use these 2 studies for legal purposes and for your libraries as these 2 are key as to how we got here. IMO, I believe strongly that a leak occurred surrounding this research by Menachery and Baric funded by NIH. It may have even happened on US soil.
Study 1 (2016):
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
We thank Dr. Zhengli-Li Shi of the Wuhan Institute of Virology for access to bat CoV sequences and plasmid of WIV1-CoV spike protein. Research was supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease and the National Institute of Aging of the NIH under Awards U19AI109761 and U19AI107810 (to R.S.B.), AI1085524 (to W.A.M.), and F32AI102561 and K99AG049092 (to V.D.M.)
Summary:
The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV highlights the continued risk of cross-species transmission leading to epidemic disease. This manuscript describes efforts to extend surveillance beyond sequence analysis, constructing chimeric and full-length zoonotic coronaviruses to evaluate emergence potential. Focusing on SARS-like virus sequences isolated from Chinese horseshoe bats, the results indicate a significant threat posed by WIV1-CoV. Both full-length and chimeric WIV1-CoV readily replicated efficiently in human airway cultures and in vivo, suggesting capability of direct transmission to humans. In addition, while monoclonal antibody treatments prove effective, the SARS-based vaccine approach failed to confer protection. Together, the study indicates an ongoing threat posed by WIV1-related viruses and the need for continued study and surveillance.’
Research in this manuscript was supported by grants from the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Disease and the National Institute of Aging of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) under awards U19AI109761 (R.S.B.), U19AI107810 (R.S.B.), AI085524 (W.A.M.), F32AI102561 (V.D.M.) and K99AG049092 (V.D.M.), and by the National Natural Science Foundation of China awards 81290341 (Z.-L.S.) and 31470260 (X.-Y.G.), and by USAID-EPT-PREDICT funding from EcoHealth Alliance (Z.-L.S.). Human airway epithelial cultures were supported by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Disease of the NIH under award NIH DK065988 (S.H.R.). We also thank M.T. Ferris (Dept. of Genetics, University of North Carolina) for the reviewing of statistical approaches and C.T. Tseng (Dept. of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch) for providing Calu-3 cells. Experiments with the full-length and chimeric SHC014 recombinant viruses were initiated and performed before the GOF research funding pause and have since been reviewed and approved for continued study by the NIH. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIH.
Summary:
‘The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV underscores the threat of cross-species transmission events leading to outbreaks in humans. Here we examine the disease potential of a SARS-like virus, SHC014-CoV, which is currently circulating in Chinese horseshoe bat populations1. Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone.
The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild-type backbone can efficiently use multiple orthologs of the SARS receptor human angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2), replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV. Additionally, in vivo experiments demonstrate replication of the chimeric virus in mouse lung with notable pathogenesis.
Evaluation of available SARS-based immune-therapeutic and prophylactic modalities revealed poor efficacy; both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from infection with CoVs using the novel spike protein.
On the basis of these findings, we synthetically re-derived an infectious full-length SHC014 recombinant virus and demonstrate robust viral replication both in vitro and in vivo. Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations.’
Misdirection, while the country was distracted by the Chinese spy balloon over the weekend, the Biden admin. secretly freed one of the September 11th terrorist planners from Gitmo.
While the country was distracted by the Chinese spy balloon over the weekend, the Biden admin. secretly freed one of the September 11th terrorist planners from Gitmo.
QUICK FACTS:
The Biden regime quietly freed one of the terrorist planners behind the 9/11 attacks from Guantanamo Bay in Cuba over the weekend.
“Today, more than 16 years after he was brought to Guantanamo Bay and almost a year after he completed a military commission sentence there, pursuant to a plea cooperation agreement with U.S. authorities, Majid Khan was transferred to Belize,” Khan’s legal team said.
Forty-two-year-old Majid Khan is the first terrorist connected to the terrorist attacks over twenty years ago to be released by the Biden administration.
“He is the first of the prisoners transferred from secret CIA detention to Guantánamo in September 2006 to be released, and the first third-country resettlement by the Biden administration. Mr. Khan and his legal team are deeply grateful to Belize for offering him a chance to begin a new life,” the statement continued.
Two high-ranking United States officials and a former high-ranking government official recently told NBC that at least two more detainees will be moved from Gitmo in the coming weeks.
his denial of early treatment, I guess so, just for ratings, so Kevin wanted to benefit on the upside when lockdowns and vaxx was ‘cool’, now wants to benefit & capitalize on the downside too
The frauds, the grifters, benefitted on the upside joining in on the lockdown lunacy and being incentivized and making money, now wanting to benefit on the downside too. Filth.
This is the ultimate grifter, ultimate, grifting off of fame, stealing air time after having blood on his hands, his and his buddies, his doctor buddies and academic scientists, for as you see, Kev was all too happy and joined in, and he wrote this, when Atlas, Kulldorff, me, McCullough, Risch and us freedom fighters, all of us, were scorned and smeared and cancelled, income taken etc., hell, he partook, Kev enjoyed, for as he knew it, for near 3 years he was on the ‘right side of things, he was in ‘polite’ society’, we were the deplorables, the anti-vaxxers, the unwashed, we were to be removed from society and imprisoned folk like him said; the likes of him and Wen and Offit etc. yet now, as the shit is about to hit the fan, he becomes the master orator, he knows what is best, show to show, and the pusillanimous media people fall for it…we should listen to this fraud, this Johnny come lately, he has the right answers. He who has blood on his hands, we need to hear him out. For it took him 7 long years to understand basic science, a medical student, he now gets immunology and virology, he now understands the lockdowns failed and now that he grasps it, we should say ‘hell yeah, Kev is on the game now, we are now saved’! Now that he figured it out, after all the lives were lost, we should say thank God, thank him, and hug him! In your dreams Kev.
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This grifter Kevin Bass. Grifting fame; you could grift not only for money and Kev figured that out all too well!
This guy is Oster on roids!
Kev never cared, he said that, he was part of the problem, he helped and supported and emboldened good people being pummeled into submission and all the lunatic specious policies that is how I read his opinion piece, not out of admiration, out of disgust for the hubris and arrogance this guy has; to assume he is relevant. Just like that, when it is no longer favorable.
he said that too and now he has ‘come out’ and I know why, for he has heard we want hearings and accountability and it may well include the likes of him; when the US truckers and Canadian truckers knew day one the vaccine mandate was moot and absurd and punitive, Kev was all for it as they lost earnings and starved and he stuffed his grinning face, while Suzie lost her job and then hung herself, when little Ben at 8 was found by his parents in his bedroom hung due to school closures, Kev gloated, he was ‘on the right side’ with Karen, Kev gloated and stuffed his grinning face, and now that it is collapsing, the narrative is collapsing, he is running to the hills, saying ‘oh, can’t we all get along, oh, we made mistakes’…I say shove it Kev, and I am surprised Tucker gave you, you grifter and grafter in chief, time of day. Lost some points from me. But I, on the front line, folk like us, daily, 3 years now, you reading this, screaming and protesting and crying and losing family to the likes of Kevin’s supported policies, we are not important. Kev, the Johnny come lately, is. Money. This is the sickness of even this movement and the media, it’s only about money and they give the wrong people air time and create a hero from a grifter who helped cause the pain and loss for 3 years. I just do not get it.
2020, & COVID doesn’t explain it all’; of course COVID cannot explain it all, we see as virus is not killing elderly in 2022 to now, a spike in deaths in young & middle aged persons! VACCINE, stupid!
And not just the vaccine that Jason Kenney allowed to kill Albertans, Canadians, it is the insane ZERO-COVID lockdown lunacy he espoused, him and his government that prevented people from being treated and as such, their chronic and emerging illnesses went untreated and now, many are too far along the disease sequelae to get treatment. They are dying, thanks to you Jason et al. I want you, all of you beasts investigated and imprisoned if we could for the deaths!
Let us see what Danielle Smith does, over to you Premier Smith. We know with half your brain tied behind your back you will do better than NDP, but you got to clean house of the demons and malfeasants around you. Much more to do!
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Call me if you wish Madame Premier, I am open to help you fix Alberta and right the ship after this death trip across COVID. Lots of love my way, just call! Albertans want real change. In my culture, we have a saying, ‘same horse, different saddle’. I hope you are not the same horse! I do not think so yet I am saying, stay strong, resolute, and fire them all! I admire you and support but do not get side tracked.
NDP is a non-starter so come on, we have a province to fix and heal! A proud Canadian citizen I am!
Also, companies like The Wellness Company can do wonders in Alberta, with it’s ideas and depth chart. Consider them, will bring jobs and security to Alberta.
‘The number of Albertans who died over the last three years was significantly higher than what would be considered normal for that stretch of time, and not all of that increase is attributed to COVID-19 deaths, according to new data from Statistics Canada.
Weekly death estimates from the federal agency show there were 9,821 extra deaths over the course of the pandemic, from early 2020 to the first week of November 2022. That is, close to 10,000 more people died than what would normally be expected for the same time period. Researchers call this number excess deaths.’
They screwed us bigtime! Vaccinated persons report massive spikes in blood pressure that is difficult to control post vaccine; hypertension manifesting all over, it’s a serious post shot issue
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This COVID gene injection, mRNA or DNA, must be stopped and pulled from the market now, no more! None for healthy children, none, stop, I argue even for high-risk granny! We have early treatment. The shot is far more harmful than beneficial. It confers no benefit and while you decide with your doctor, IMO, one would be a lunatic to touch these fraud shots now!
Sanitized misleading portion of the paper:
‘A 2022 systematic review of several studies published in the Journal of Cardiovascular Development and Disease examined 357,387 subjects with 13,444 events of abnormal or increased blood pressure showed evidence of elevated blood pressure after COVID vaccination is not unusual. The proportion of patients with abnormal blood pressure or with a significant increase in blood pressure ranged from 0.93 to 23.72 percent. The estimate of stage III hypertension or hypertensive urgencies and emergencies following COVID vaccination was 0.6 percent.’
The reality is that it is far worse than this. They write and allude to that the biological mechanism of how COVID shots increase blood pressure is unknown. Bullocks, we have written and spoken extensively on this. Typical political biased piece but at the least they are brave enough to showcase a huge problem!
END
VACCINE INJURY/
VACCINE IMPACT
After Years of Bombing Syria, the U.S. Continues to Turn Their Back on Those Suffering After a Massive Killer Earthquake
February 7, 2023 7:23 pm
I spent several years living in Turkey in the mid-1980s and early 1990s, and have lived in the area where a massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck earlier this week, with thousands of deaths. During my time in Southeastern Turkey in 1991, working with Kurdish refugees, I got to know many Orthodox Christian Syrians living in that region. It is so sad to see the pictures of devastation from this region this week, following the massive earthquake that struck there. But what really angers is me is how the criminal government of the United States has caused thousands of Syrian deaths even before the earthquake happened, by unnecessarily bombing the people and ruining their economy through sanctions. And now that the people of Syria are suffering even more because of this massive earthquake, the U.S. refuses to lift sanctions against the country to allow a greater flow of humanitarian aid to come into the country to help the survivors. The U.S. denies that they are stopping aid workers, of course, but I spoke with some Orthodox Christian Syrians living here in the U.S. today who confirmed to me that their families are suffering, and that the sanctions in place make it very difficult for them to get aid to their family members living in Syria.
“The Irony Is If Higher Rates Mean Higher Wage Growth, And Higher Inflation”
WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 10:05 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Inde-structure-able
Our Fed watcher Philip Marey has responded to Fed Chair Powell’s chat yesterday with a 50bps upward shift in his Fed Funds call for 2023. Rather than pausing at 5.00% after a 25bps hike next month, Philip now sees the Fed raising rates to 5.50% via an additional two hikes over the year – and he is flagging upside risks that Fed Funds may need to go as high as 6%. (See ‘Long Road Ahead’.) I know markets have the memory of goldfish, and everybody was always right, but 12 months ago that view would have been seen as science fiction.
This forecast revision, clearly sign-posted by Philip in advance, was not driven by Powell’s comments on goods disinflation (though notice the 2.5% m-o-m January surge in US used car prices on one industry measure). Rather it was because the Fed Chair stated the current US labor market dynamic “feels more structural than cyclical,” and his biggest worry is inflation in core services ex-housing as well as possible new exogenous shocks.
“Structural”. There’s a difficult word for markets to deal with. They can cope with the idea that there has been a nasty cyclical shock, because of ‘exogenous events nobody foresaw’, so rates had to go higher; but the idea there might be a permanent change in the economy so rates have to STAY HIGHER, is something nobody is contemplating. Including the Fed. How else do they project inflation coming back down to 2% by 2024, and only a moderate increase in unemployment at the same time? Do structural changes on the endogenous and exogenous fronts simultaneously resolve themselves in 18 months? How?
Relatedly, oligopoly specialist @matthewstoller tweets: “If the Fed doesn’t continue to tighten financial conditions I worry inflation could re-accelerate. Auto industry giants have gotten used to high mark-ups and are not increasing production to meet demand.” He isn’t alone in that view.
In May 2022, the Boston Fed concluded: “The US economy is at least 50% more concentrated today than it was in 2005… Our findings suggest that the increase in industry concentration over the past two decades could be amplifying the inflationary pressure from current supply-chain disruptions and a tight labour market.” In April 2022, the Economic Policy Institute argued ‘Corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. How should policymakers respond?’, lobbying for an excess profits tax not rate hikes, by showing contributions to growth in unit prices in the US corporate sector for 1979-2019 being corporate profits (11.4%), non-labour input costs (26.8%), and labour costs (61.8%) vs. Q4/2020–Q4/2021’s corporate profits (53.9%), non-labour input costs (38.3%), and labour costs (7.9%). In other words, a supply shock and ‘costs-plus’ price increases in a concentrated corporate sector led US prices higher (after loose fiscal policy). Now we might have a structurally tight labour market on top!
That’s as President Biden will reportedly say in his State of the Union address that he is building a “blue-collar America” where “no one is left behind”. (Apart from the white-collar workers who are easily replaced with ChatGPT?) Wage pressures much! On the other hand, Biden’s appointment of Lina Khan at the FCC is seeing a slow, grinding reversal of the Borkian revolution that led to such high levels of corporate concentration – but that will take far longer to take effect, if at all, than a third consecutive ‘blue-collar’ White House.
Indeed, imagine if powerful firms pay out higher interest costs, and higher wages, yet can raise prices to cover them? I think that used to be called a wage-price spiral.
Plus we have endogenous issues encapsulated in China refusing to take a phone call from the Pentagon to discuss balloons, Saudi Arabia to issue non-US dollar debt despite its currency being pegged to it, and Belarus’s president boasting, “The world will soon see new powerful monetary unions with a new reserve currency.” (Again, I don’t see these attempts working, or offering global peace or stability, but that doesn’t mean they won’t try, and that they don’t limit Western central banks’ room for policy manoeuvre.)
But don’t worry: inflation goes back to 2% anyway. Everywhere. Because reasons.
Of course, this is not just a US issue.
For example, yesterday’s other central bank action, where the RBA 25bps rate hike to 3.35% as expected, saw an accompanying statement that further rate increases will be needed in the coming months. In other words, local housing-obsessed analysts saying rates would not go close to 4% were wrong – and they may be even more wrong than that.
Albeit anecdotally, what we are seeing unfold in parts of Australia is that as mortgage rates reset higher, those carrying investment rental properties are not selling off their holdings. Instead, they are raising rents to ensure they feel no pain; and given there is a housing shortage, and less homes will be built as rates rise, renters either have to pay, or go live in the streets.
That might mean a deflationary collapse in demand as more money flows from the bottom, rent-paying strata of society up into the hands of the propertied class – which is the neo-feudal political-economy asset-based policies logically converge towards. (And why Henry George’s ideas about a land value tax are logical, as Martin Wolf argued in the Financial Times recently.) Or it might mean Aussie renters insist that they won’t live like serfs, and need much higher wages – which given the very tight labor market, they can get.
The irony would then be higher rates mean higher wage growth, and then higher inflation.
Of course this is not a forecast. Yet it underlines that if you don’t understand the structure of the political-economy then you can’t accurately forecast ‘just’ the economy. That’s the same argument we made in the geopolitical modelling exercise we just did for the UK and Eurozone regarding balance of payments and balance of power crises.
Quite literally, structure your arguments better if you want to be able to differentiate between economic science fiction and what is now economic science fact, i.e., Fed Funds heading for 5.5%, with a risk of a 6% peak.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
NEW ZEALAND
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0743 UP .0012
USA/ YEN 130.93 DOWN 0.129/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2094 UP 0.0040
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 15.99 PTS OR .59%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 15.18 PTS OR 0.07%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.36% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 15.18 PTS OR 0.07%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.99 PTS OR .49%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .36%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 79.01 PTS OR 0.29%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1880.50
silver:$22.43
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 103.06 DOWN 24 BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP ..(6.7892)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8017
TURKISH LIRA: 18.83 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.488…VERY DANGEREOUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.683% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.735 UP 5 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 103.30 UP 0 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 20.50 PTS OR 0.26%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 88.11 POINTS OR 0.58
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 8.52PTS OR 0.12%
Spain IBEX UP 61.40 POINTS OR 0.67%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 79.72 PTS OR 0.29%
WTI Oil price 77.54 12: EST
Brent Oil: 87.86 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 72.30/ ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 15/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3626
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.348 UP 18 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0710 DOWN 0.0019 OR 19 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2064 UP .0010 or 10 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.314% UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 131.42 UP .367////YEN DOWN 36.7 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3444 UP .0053 (CDN dollar, DOWN 53 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 78.17
Brent OIL: 85.03
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 3.643%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 3.699%
USA dollar index:103.36 UP 6 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.83
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 72.15 DOWN 1 AND 15/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 265.67 PTS OR 0.78%
NASDAQ 100 UP 263.76 PTS OR 2.12%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.67 DOWN 0.76 PTS (3.91)%
GLD: $173.98 UP .19 OR 0.11%
SLV/ $20.38 DOWN 0.10 OR 0.49%
end)
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks Slammed As Rate-Hike Odds Rise, Google Gags
WEDNESDAY, FEB 08, 2023 – 04:01 PM
A triple whammy of FedSpeak today (Williams, Kashkari, and Waller) all sung from the same hymn-sheet – ‘more work to do’, ‘higher for longer’, ‘no rate cuts this year’… and the market is actually starting to get the message.
The market’s expectations for The Fed’s rate-trajectory continued their post-payrolls hawkish trajectory today with the terminal rate reaching a new cycle high of 5.18% and H2 2023 rate-cut expectations now below 30bps…
Source: Bloomberg
That hawkish drift weighed on stocks, most notably big-tech and small-caps…
As the post-FOMC gains are rapidly losing altitude…
“Most Shorted” stocks are down for the 4th straight day after last week’s epic squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
The Nasdaq pain was exaggerated by GOOGL getting clubbed like a baby seal after its chatbot screwed up a response to a question. That’s a $110 billion market cap loss…
Notably, VVIX (the expected vol of VIX) soared today as VIX lifted back up to around 20 (as options traders begin to price in event risk around next week’s CPI print)…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were lower across the curve today fairly uniformly (down 2-3bps), but all remain higher post-FOMC with the short-end still underperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar inched higher on the day after trading in a very narrow range all day…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin reversed yesterday’s gains, back below $23,000….
Source: Bloomberg
Gold briefly touched $1900 overnight but couldn’t hold it…
Oil prices extended their recent rebound with WTI topping $78 back at one-week highs…
Finally, the market still appears to be pricing in rate-cuts by the end of the year…
As far as interest rate increases , this is probably where we are heading according to the New York Fed Williams
They generally know
(Market Watch)
Williams says Fed needs to keep interest rates high ‘for a few years’ to kill off inflation
Feb. 8, 2023 at 10:15 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
New York Fed chief sees peak policy rate of 5% to 5.25% as reasonable
The president of the New York Federal Reserve said the central bank needs to maintain “restrictive” interest rates for a few years to make sure high inflation is restored to low pre-pandemic levels.
John Williams said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that the Fed has a lot more work to do to bring inflation down and restore what economists call price stability.
Yet despite a stunningly strong jobs report in January, Williams said it was appropriate for the Fed to step down to 1/4-quarter point rate hikes after a series of 1/2-point rate increases through most of last year.
The bank last week raised its benchmark fed funds rate by 1/4 percentage point. Since early 2021 the Fed jacked up its benchmark rate from near zero to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, a level Williams called “barely restrictive.”
In economist lingo, a restrictive interest rate is one that is high enough to partly depress economic activity. Take the housing market. Sales and construction have nosedived since the Fed rate hikes as mortgage rates soared.
A neutral rate is viewed as one that neither promotes nor subtracts from economic growth.
The smaller increases in interest rates, Williams said, would give the Fed more leeway to calibrate their effect on the U.S. economy. The bank is trying to snuff out high inflation without triggering a recession, a delicate balancing act that many economists doubt it can pull off.
Williams, a key ally of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, said the Fed’s current forecast of a peak short-term rate of 5% to 5.25% was still a good goal.
The current scenario suggests the Fed would reach its intended target by May with two more rate hikes.
Fed officials have repeatedly said they plan to maintain higher rates for an extended period to make sure inflation is brought down to its 2% target. Inflation rose by less than 2% a year in the decade preceding the pandemic.
The rate of inflation hit a 40-year peak of 9.1% last summer before slowing to 6.5% at the end of the year, based on the consumer price index.
Wall Street investors, for their part, remain skeptical the Fed will stick to its get-tough approach. Many expect the central bank to start cutting rates later this year as the economy weakens.
Williams said the Fed’s path forward will depend on whether the U.S. labor market loosens up and inflation in the large service sector of the economy eases.
Inflation in services such as travel, hospitality and entertainment is harder to reverse than price increases in goods like fuel, food and lumber.
The tightest labor market in modern times has driven up U.S. wages at the fastest pace since the early 1980s and pushed the unemployment rate down to a nearly 54-year low of 3.4%.
Wage growth has started to slow from very high levels, but there’s little sign of much softening in the labor market.
“We have almost two times as many job openings as unemployed workers,” Williams noted.
END
The very popular Seymour Hersch on how the uSA took out the Nordstream pipeline:
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
Robert Hryniak
4:13 PM (4 minutes ago)
to
Seymour Hersh is a well known and highly regarded journalist who just broke the story of the decade.
The reality of this act of War by minions who surround Biden the Fool, is stark and appalling. For a global power to stoop to such activity is tantamount to terrorism on a global scale. Why? Because this is not a singular attack on one nation but a broader attack on Europe itself causing immeasurable economic and social consequences for all Europeans and not just Russia. The cost of energy has increased dramatically in Europe causing industries to shut down leaving many people without work and causing wider repercussions in causing declining consumption at a time when prices were rising making households poorer. And no doubt European banks are now on death’s row as activity declines.
One might even suggest these actions have now affected all of Europe in a warped attempt to take down Russia by a deranged group of Neocons who now have been put under the spotlight of attention and shame as simple criminals masquerading as a administration of a government of a country that promotes legitimacy. This action is clearly an act that is over the top of any creditability. Ordinary Americans should be horrified, let alone the rest of the world. Who will trust this administration of America now?
Biden and the minions who surround him have now placed America on stage underdressed as a geopolitical Criminal. This will not go unanswered or ignored by the world at large. Perhaps European politicians will be silent but it is unlikely their citizens will suffer in silence. No doubt the rest of the world will see America and the politicians in DC for they are and America will be more isolated. And the minions wonder why China does not want to talk to them or why Russia says there is no one to talk too, worth while. No doubt others like India, Iran and many others feel the same.
In the West, we just have seen America under Biden go over a cliff in having confidence and credibility in the eyes of nations around the world. And this will now impact all of us going forward, as American hegemony just suffered a much bigger blow than even the Afghanistan fiasco or the looming one in Ukraine. As it is clear, America has no friends, or allies, only interests, and this is choice. And it never ends well for such nations once found out.
The King Report February 8, 2023 Issue 6944Independent View of the News@MichaelMOTTCM: Manheim Used Auto Prices are up for the second month in a row, climbing by 2.5% in January. This January CPI report is setting up to be a hot one! https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1622965806421413896
@PauloMacro: “The Bloomberg Economics US Housing & Real Estate Surprise Index (which measure the degree to which the housing data is coming in better or worse than expectations) has been sharply climbing. It’s now at its highest level since April 2022, and it’s close to turning positive.”…
@KobeissiLetter: The housing market is back and used car prices are going back up. It feels like spring of 2022 all over again. Consumers just keep on borrowing with seemingly little worry. Mortgage demand up 30% since November, supply remains limited.
Caveat: Don’t forget, the BLS is changing its CPI methodology for this year! Fed’s Kashkari: The housing market is starting to show signs of life again, making our job harder. If conditions are easier, we would have to do more on rates. We may have to hold rates at a higher level for longer.
Fed’s Kashkari sticks to 5.4% rate hike view after ‘surprising’ jobs report “We’ve seen no progress so far, virtually no progress in core services ex housing, and that’s very tied to the labor market.”… Kashkari also remained concerned about the possibility that loosening financial conditions could complicate the Fed’s task. “On the margin it does cause concern for me individually. I don’t think it’s a good thing that mortgage rates have come back down…it does make our jobs harder to bring the economy into balance.“ https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/feds-kashkari-sticks-to-54-rate-hike-view-after-surprising-jobs-report/ar-AA17cOJo
ESHs rallied during early Asian trading and then effectively traded sideways for four hours. After a moderate decline from 23:00 ET to midnight, ESHs flatlined until they sank on the European open. Traders then poured into ESHs and European stocks, creating a bottom at 3:09 ET. ESHs rallied 19 handles in an hour. ESHs and stocks then went inert until a decline began at 5:40 ET.
The decline ended at 10:27 ET. Once again, the usual suspects aggressively bought stuff. ESHs jumped from the daily low of 4106.00 to 4128.25 at the European open. ESHs then went inert ahead of Powell.
It was Groundhog Day for US equities on Tuesday. Fangs, meme stocks, and trading sardines rallied smartly before Powell’s speech.
At 12:20 ET, ESHs and stocks broke modestly lower and then went flat. At 12:39 ET, ESHs jumped 20 handles in less than 1 minute as Powell’s prepared remarks hit the tape. They quickly rescinded the entire rally. Then ESHs surged 54 handles higher because Powell reiterated his disinflation remark.
Powell Speech HighlightsDisinflationary process has started in the goods sectorDisinflationary process has a long way to go, process will be bumpyNeed restrictive policy for a period of timeProbably need to do further interest-rate increasesHaven’t achieved sufficiently restrictive stance yetReaching inflation target will drag into 2024Fed not actively considering sales of mortgage-backed securities (MBS)Has not put a dollar number on balance sheet, will take a “couple years” to shrinkDidn’t expected January jobs report to be so strongLabor market is extraordinarily strong; if strong labor data persists, peak rate may be higher ESHs tumbled 42 handles from 12:57 ET to 13:16 ET. Powell concluded his speech near 13:18 ET. By 13:37 ET, ESHs had plunged 77 handles from the 4175.00 high. At 13:50 ET ESHs and stocks turned higher. By the 15:00 ET, ESHs had soared 70 handles from the low. After a 16-handle retreat, ESHs jumped 39 handles to a daily high of 4188.25 by 15:53 ET. ESHs sank 17 handles into the close.
USHs traded similarly to ESHs until they declined into and after the 11:30 ET European close. They were moderately negative before Powell’s speech; they didn’t rally as sharply ESHs; gave up most of their rally more quickly; and USHs turned solidly negative for the day before Powell finished his speech. By 13:49 ET, USHs had lost 30/32 from their 129 11/32 high at 12:58 ET. After chopping sideways for 30 minutes, USHs sank to a new session low of 128 7/32 at 14:30 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session ESHs and stocks rebounded sharply after the NYSE opened, again, after Powell’s speech Fangs, meme stocks, and trading sardines led the rally; rabid speculation is hitting historic highs
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined sharply, again Stocks tumbled near the end of Powell’s speech Commodities soared Last ESH decline
Ambiguous aspects of previous session A huge divergence in rate outlooks has developed between equities and bonds.
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4142.97 Previous session High/Low: 4176.54; 4088.39
@NewsBecker: Tucker Carlson: “Pfizer’s got the best business model in the history of business. The government sends Pfizer billions of your tax dollars, then forced you to buy their product, and if it hurts you you’re not allowed to sue.”https://twitter.com/NewsBecker/status/1622787773970419712
China Has More ICBM Launchers Than U.S., American Military Reports – While the U.S. leads in intercontinental missiles and warheads, China’s gains are fueling debate in Congress The U.S. military has notified Congress that China now has more land-based intercontinental-range missile launchers than the U.S., fueling the debate about how Washington should respond to Beijing’s nuclear buildup… https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-has-more-icbm-launchers-than-u-s-american-military-reports-11675779463
@ClayTravis: Disney deleted a Simpsons episode that mentions Chinese labor camps from Hong Kong’s Disney+ to avoid offending China. https://t.co/n31Nyz25S3
Today – A disturbing discrepancy in the interest rates outlook between bonds and stocks has occurred. Retail speculators are again running amok in meme stocks, Fangs, assorted trading sardines, and 0DTE options. Powell once again has unleashed manic speculation in equity vehicles. This cannot end well.
After two years of vile attacks on the GOP, especially non-RINOs, a unity trope will not euchre the GOP. Due to the GOP’s control of the House, most of Joe’s fiscal agenda is DOA. Given the myriad domestic and foreign crises Americans face, plus The Big Guy’s history of lies, boasting, and venomous, divisive rhetoric, why should one listen to Joe risibly toot his own horn?
Biden to Tout US economic strength in Address to Nation – BBG
GOP response: Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders slams President Biden for ‘woke fantasies’ “In the radical left’s America, Washington taxes you and lights your hard-earned money on fire, but you get crushed with high gas prices, empty grocery shelves, and our children are taught to hate one another on account of their race, but not to love one another or our great country… the Biden administration seems more interested in woke fantasies than the hard reality Americans face every day…” https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-aud-nw-state-of-the-union-gop-response-20230208-fpykkltyrzgb7ctkhdybofw3e4-story.html
ESHs are -5.50 at 20:50 ET. 4100 on the S&P 500 Index is important support.
Expected economic data: Dec Wholesale Inventories 0.1% m/m, Sales -0.2%; NY Fed Pres Williams 9:15 ET, Fed Gov Lisa Cook 9:30 ET, Fed VCEO for Supervision Barr & Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 10:00 ET, Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 12:30 ET, Fed Gov Waller 13:45 ET
@JackDetsch: China has turned down a request for a secure call between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and PRC Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe requested by the Pentagon after U.S. fighter jets downed a Chinese spy balloon on Saturday: DoD statement: Full Pentagon statement from Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder: “Lines between our militaries are particularly important in moments like this. Unfortunately, the PRC has declined our request. Our commitment to open lines of communication will continue…” https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1623073448128921601 China’s decision to turn down the call comes less than three months after a marathon round of talks between U.S. and Chinese officials in November—including Biden & Xi—left U.S. officials expecting new crisis-averting hotlines could be coming.
Another instance of US weakness and groveling: China disdainfully rejected the US’s phone call request.
Could President Biden’s classified documents scandal evolve into a counter-espionage case involving Communist China? – Reporter Paul Sperry explains why Biden could be in ‘serious’ trouble “Biden was stockpiling classified documents. His son and brother were taking millions from Chinese bagmen under investigation for bribing world leaders. So Biden’s case is potentially a counter-espionage case, which is a much bigger deal than just handling or mishandling documents,”… We also learned from some of these federal law enforcement documents that the whole situation was so serious in terms of the counterintelligence concerns with the Bidens and their Chinese partners that the feds actually put the Chinese partners under a FISA surveillance, and at the same time, they were monitoring the Bidens’ communications with those Chinese partners.”… https://t.co/y8FK5mnkAE
China, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Turkey have poured millions of dollars into the University of Delaware since the school launched the Biden Institute. Since the Biden Institute was established in 2017, the University of Delaware has received $6,704,250 in funding from China, $23,610,996 from Saudi Arabia, $2,513,646 from Oman and $1,673,847 from Turkey, according to data from the U.S. Department of Education… https://freebeacon.com/latest-news/foreign-nations-poured-millions-into-university-that-houses-biden-institute/
@ByronYork: Going lower and lower: Former President Trump attacked Gov. Ron DeSantis on Truth Social this afternoon, re-sending an accusation that claimed to show DeSantis ‘groomed high school girls with alcohol as a teacher.’ Trump seems sure to further alienate many Republicans.
World renowned CV19 critical care and pulmonary expert Dr. Pierre Kory is fast becoming one of the top CV19 vaccine injury experts in the country.It’s not only injuries Dr. Kory is concerned about, but it is the huge amount of death from these bioweapon injections. The dark powers did not tell you the dangers of the CV19 so-called vaccines, and now, they are covering up and ignoring lifesaving therapies to combat it. Dr. Kory explains, “Every day it’s just endless reports in the newspapers and all around us of young people dying. By the way, it’s not normal for people to die suddenly at 32 years of age, or at 42 or even at 50. You see droves and droves of people dying, this is not to mention the number of celebrities dying and the amount of artists getting sick, canceling concerts and developing cancers. Have you ever seen so many famous people getting sick all the time and not being able to do their duties, sing or do all these things? It’s dystopian. People are dying, and they are dying at rates we have never seen before. There is a cause (CV19 bioweapon/vax), and it’s preventable.”
Dr. Kory has completely shifted his direction to vax injuries and shedding injuries. Dr. Kory says, “There is no vaccine injury clinic – period. You cannot have a clinic for a disease that you shall not speak its name.” (CV19 bioweapon/vax)
Dr. Kory has seen the amount of vax injuries explode over the last year in his new practice, and he says they are increasing. What does Dr. Kory use for his baseline treatment to combat vaccine injuries? It’s Ivermectin, but the medical community is not pushing this life saving treatment, and many are saying it’s ineffective and unsafe — a total lie. This is why Dr. Kory is coming out with a book in April called “The War on Ivermectin.”
Dr. Kory says, “Ivermectin is demonstrably, provably one of the safest medicines in the history of medicine. It is really hard to overdose on Ivermectin, and this gives it a really wide range of dosing. In fact, you could probably take 100 times a standard dose. (Standard dose is 9mgs per 100 pounds.) So, there is a wide dosing range. . . . There has not been one provable documented death with Ivermectin. . . . The safety is unparallel. Even the World Health Organization (WHO) . . . it’s on their list of essential medicines around the world, and they say most side effects are minor. I use it all the time. . . . As a physician, it is such a great medicine to work with because of its safety. You don’t have to worry about Ivermectin. . . . In my practice, we have an evolving array of therapies that work to treat what I call vaccine injury syndrome. Most of the patients that come to see me have syndromes. That is a constellation of symptoms, and that is different than a post-vaccine complication. . . . I see patients that are essentially disabled. The three cardinal symptoms are: severe fatigue . . . post exertional malaise . . . they cannot tolerate physical exertion, and then the third cardinal symptom is what we call brain fog. . . . Those are the three big ones.”
In closing, Dr. Kory says, “We have a pandemic of the vaccinated. Now, we have millions injured from the (CV19) vaccine for which, in my opinion, Ivermectin is one of the most effective medicines to help them. How are they going to get Ivermectin? How are they going to find a doctor to use Ivermectin?”
Dr. Kory answers many questions in the 1-hour and 10-minute in-depth interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Dr. Pierre Kory, one of the top pulmonary and Covid Critical Care experts on the planet, who is co-founder of the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance (flccc.net) and author of the upcoming book “The War on Ivermectin”for 2.7.23.
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