February 13+++a//2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $9.90 at $1853.40

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.08 to $21.88

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1864.20

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 22.01

Bitcoin morning price:, 21,677 DOWN 68 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $21,745 DOWN 221 dollars

Platinum price closing $958.40 UP $7.70

Palladium price; closing 1571.15 UP 24.10

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,473,15 DOWN $1l.58 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1527,65 DOWN 19.03 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1729,31 DOWN 16.50 euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,862.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/10/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 02/14/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 1
132 C SG AMERICAS 1
323 C HSBC 3
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 6
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 26
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 71 30
800 C MAREX SPEC 4 3
880 C CITIGROUP 10
905 C ADM 1

TOTAL: 81 81
MONTH TO DATE: 13,013

JPMORGAN STOPPED 30/81

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT: 81 NOTICES FOR 8100 OZ or 0.2519 TONNES

total notices so far: 13,013 contracts for 1,301,300 oz (40.475 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 20 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 100,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :756 for 3,780,000 oz

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

///SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INTO THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.762. MILLION OZ (CORRECTED

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1678 CONTRACTS TO 131,282 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.08 LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. FOR THE TWO MONTHS, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.08. AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 602 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (0.0 MILLION OZ. ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.775 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 438 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 115,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP OZ// NEW TOTALS STANDING = 3.890 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 5.655 MILLION OZ//// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -638

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 days, total 8669 contracts: OR 43.35 MILLION OZ . (963 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 43.35 MILLION OZ (HUGE)

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 43.35/ MILLION OZ/INITIAL//HEADING FOR A RECORD MONTH OF ISSUANCE!!

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1678 DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.08 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 438 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 0.54 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 115,0000 OZ QUEUE JUMP= NEW STANDING: 3.890 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 5.655 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE AN GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS OF 1240 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALL LOSS IN PRICE//

WE HAD 22 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 110,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5937 CONTRACTS TO 430,056AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 728 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 5937 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $4.05 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 100 OZ //NEW STANDING: 43.104 TONNES//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $4.05 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR/GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 3800 OI CONTRACTS (11.819 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2137 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 430,784

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3800 CONTRACTS WITH 5937 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3800 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3800 CONTRACTS OR 11.819 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2137 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (5937) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3800 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // ///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION //4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

28,034 CONTRACTS OR 2,803,400 OZ OR 87.198 TONNES 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3115 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 87.198 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 87.198/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.45% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 87.198 TONNES/INITIAL (HEADING FOR ANOTHER STRONG ISSUANCE)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1678 CONTRACTS OI TO 131,282 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 438 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 438 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 438 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1678 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 438 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1240 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.200 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.08 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.49 PTS OR 0.72% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 26.00 PTS OR 0.12% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 25.38 PTS OR 0.28% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .16% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8244 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8320// /Oil DOWN TO 79.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 86.19 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5937 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 430,056 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.05

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2137 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2137 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2137 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 3800 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2137 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 5937 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $4.05. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. TODAY THE SPEC LONGS WERE RINSED OUT!!

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (43.966)

TONNES),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES

2003:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 43.104 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $4.05) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING MANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3800 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 11.819 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.219 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 300 OZ OR 0.009330TONNES//NEW STANDING DECREASES TO 43.066 tonnes … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $10.90.

WE HAD -728 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES ADDED TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3800 CONTRACTS OR 38000 OZ OR 11.819 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 127,311// extremely poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday 164,656/// poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //FEB 13//

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	96,485.142 oz JPMORGAN Brinks 3001 kilobars .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	81 notice(s) 8100 OZ 0.2519 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	843 contracts 84300 oz 2.62208 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	13,013 notices 1,3013,000 40.475 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits: NIL oz

customer withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Brinks 32.151 oz (1 kilobar)

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 96,452.991 oz (3000. kilobars

total withdrawals: 96,485.142.300.1 oz (3001 kilobars_

Adjustments; nil

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 924 contracts having lost 79 contracts. We had 76 notices

filed on Friday so we lost 3 contract or an additional 300 oz will not stand for metal at the comex as these guys was EFP’d to London

March gained 11 contracts to stand at 2107.

April lost 6583 contracts down to 349,432

We had 81 notice(s) filed today for 8100 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 71 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 81 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 30 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2023. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,013 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEBRUARY 924 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 81 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,385,600 OZ OR 43.066 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of January.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:

No of notices filed so far (13,013 x 100 oz+ 924 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (81)x 100 oz} which equals 1,384,600 oz standing OR 43.066 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 43.066 TONNES. SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 1,812,504.867 OZ 56.37 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,102,163.551 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,063,541.226 (344.122 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,038,622.325 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,251,937 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 287.74 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

FEB 13/2023//INITIAL. SILVER CONTRACT FOR FEBRUARY

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	68,440.230 oz CNT Brinks Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1052.26 oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)	20 CONTRACT(S) (100,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	22 contracts (110,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	756 contracts (3,780,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT: 1,052.26 oz

Total deposits: 1,052,26oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 146.939 million oz/291.144 million =50.51% of comex .//dropping fast

Comex withdrawals: 2

i)Out of CNT: 8942.200 oz

iii) Out of Brinks 36,351.440 oz

iii) Out of Delaware 23,146.370 oz oz

Total withdrawals; 68,440.230 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.784MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 291.144 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB/2023 OI: 42 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 1 CONTRACT(S.).

WE HAD 22 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 23 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 115,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL

STAND AT THE COMEX.

March LOST 56363 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 69,083 contracts

April GAINED 7 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 45.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:22 for 110,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 57,287//fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 83,078 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 756 x 5,000 oz = 3,780,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(42) and the number of notices served upon today 20 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month:756 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB (42 – number of notices served upon today (22) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 3.890 million oz + PREVIOUS 1.775 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 5.655MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 920.79 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//

CLOSING INVENTORY 483.762 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

end

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

Barrick’s gold holdings in Canada dwindle

(Toronto’s Financial Post/GATA)

Barrick’s ties to Canada dwindle as other miners secure access to country’s rich gold belt

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-02-11 11:35Section: Daily Dispatches

By Gabriel Friedman
National Post / Financial Post, Toronto
Friday, February 10, 2023

Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. has long been one of the largest, most recognizable names in Canada’s sizeable mining industry, but its ties to the country are narrowing, especially now that its longtime rival, Colorado’s Newmont Corp., is closing in on a US$17-billion purchase of Australia’s Newcrest Mining Ltd.

All three companies are global in scale — the largest, second largest, and fourth largest gold miners in the world — but when it comes to Canada, home to some of the richest gold belts globally, only Barrick lacks a significant presence.

Newcrest, on the other hand, owns Brucejack — a high-grade underground mine in British Columbia’s Golden Triangle that consistently produces more than 300,000 ounces of gold per year — which many analysts have pegged as Barrick’s best potential acquisition target if it is to grow its presence in Canada.

Instead, it appears that Newmont, which is already building a presence in British Columbia, will gain control of Brucejack, leaving Barrick with only one mine in Canada: Hemlo, a once-formidable Ontario mine whose production has dropped steeply in recent years. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/barrick-gold-canada-ties-dwindle

end

South Sudan a totally worn torn nation now abandons the USA dollar for local currency which will cause their implosion

(East African/GATA)

South Sudan abandons U.S. dollar for local currency

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-02-11 19:31Section: Daily Dispatches

By James Anyanzwa
The East African, Nairobi, Kenya
Saturday, February 11, 2023

South Sudan’s government has suspended the use of the U.S. dollar and instead directed all transactions be executed in the local currency, the South Sudanese pound, in a move feared to stifle economic activity in the war-ravaged economy.

Most transactions in the country are carried out using the dollar, largely due to hyperinflation and the volatility of the local currency.

However, the Bank of South Sudan has banned the use of the greenback and directed that all commercial contracts be signed in the local currency.

“That is a clear directive from the central bank that all the transactions in South Sudan must be done in our currency. So all commercial contracts must be signed in our local currency,” Michael Makuei Lueth, South Sudanese information minister, said through the Chinese state-run English-language news channel CGTN. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/south-sudan-abandons-us-dollar-4119662

end

Robert Lambourne details gold swaps by the BIS. It rebounded to 103 tonnes but this swap of gold is no doubt

heading to the Federal Reserve Bank of NY

(Robert Lambourne)

Robert Lambourne: In January BIS gold swaps bounced up sharply from zero

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-02-12 09:40Section: Daily Dispatches

By Robert Lambourne
Sunday, February 12, 2023

While the December statement of account of the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of the central banks and their gold broker, showed its gold swap position had fallen to zero at the end of 2022, the bank has not gotten out of the gold swap business.

The BIS’ January statement of account, published this week —

Click to access statofacc230131.pdf

— contains sufficient information to estimate that the bank had taken up 103* tonnes of gold via swaps as of January 31 on behalf of one of its central bank customers. The most likely candidate as that customer seems to be the U.S. Federal Reserve.

It has been a rather wild ride for the bank’s gold swap business since October, as the estimate for that month showed only 7 tonnes of gold swaps outstanding, and then in November the estimated volume of swaps rose dramatically to 105 tonnes before swaps fell to zero at December 31.

Now the BIS swaps have risen back to more than 100 tonnes. Using the gold price of $1,927 (per USAGold.com), as of January 31 the 103 tonnes of gold swaps are valued at $6.4 billion. Hence it is evident that the recent yo-yo-ing in BIS gold swaps is significant and contradicts claims that gold is a monetary relic.

As is usually the case with the BIS, it remains really unlikely that more information about the reasons for the bank’s use of swaps and particularly the recent volatility in swaps will ever be provided.

The worsening finances of Western nations, especially the United States, may reduce the attraction of the gold swaps to the BIS and the central banks for which the BIS has been acting. While not necessarily related to the reduction in swaps sourced by the BIS, the recent strength of the gold price together with the conundrum facing the Fed about raising dollar interest rates must reduce the attraction of having to return swapped gold to bullion banks.

Despite its rhetoric about pushing interest rates higher, the Fed needs to avoid an erosion of confidence in the U.S. Treasuries market when the U.S. government’s rising debt is becoming more controversial.

Also, recent increases in interest rates are hitting federal government finances. The recently published January Monthly Treasury Report demonstrates the continuing trend of higher interest costs being reported:

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0123.pdf

A simple extrapolation of the interest cost in the last four months to January 31 versus the same period a year ago indicates that a forecast of an annual interest cost of $1 trillion in the current fiscal year to September 30, 2023, is a reasonable possibility, even without more interest rate increases.

In these circumstances the room for the Fed to raise interest rates much further seems restricted and hence it seems likely that the BIS and some of its shareholders are questioning the role of the BIS in these swaps and becoming obliged to make future deliveries of gold, since the Federal Reserve seems unlikely to move interest rates high enough to contain inflation.

As is clear from Table B below, the level of BIS swaps had been significantly higher in the first half of last year, and the October and December totals were easily the lowest in more than four years.

Table A below highlights the level of gold swaps reported in the annual reports of the BIS all the way back to 2010, when the bank’s use of gold swaps appears to have begun. At only one year-end since then, in March 2016, has the swap level been zero.

—–

* The BIS’ half-year report to September 30, 2022, discloses that the BIS still holds 102 tonnes of its own gold and that very little of its activities in derivatives are with central banks. An assumption that the gold held by the BIS remains at 102 tonnes has been used to make the estimate of the gold swap level for December. The low level of derivatives using central banks as counterparties, disclosed in the last interim report, is a reason to assume that the swaps are almost certainly done with gold bullion banks rather than central banks. Historically, the first swaps described below were done with bullion banks.

—–

… Historical context …

The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009-10 annual report.

The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they were carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve central banks. It also seems highly likely that the BIS’ remaining swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.

The swap transactions potentially created a mismatch at the BIS, which may have ended up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.

The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the bank’s establishment 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:

http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1931_en.pdf

A June 2008 presentation made by the BIS to potential central bank members at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, noted that the bank’s services to its members include secret interventions in the gold and foreign exchange markets:

https://www.gata.org/node/11012

The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear ever to have been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years, although the recent declines suggest this is changing.

As of March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in the name of the BIS in gold sight accounts at major central banks, of which 346 tonnes or 20% were sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.

If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosures made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. This irony may not be lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the BIS’ gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.

A review of Table B below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the recent positions estimated from the BIS monthly statements have regularly been large, especially in early 2022, and the volume of trading has been significant.

No explanation for this continuing use of swaps has been published by the BIS. Indeed, no comment on the bank’s use of gold swaps has been offered since 2010.

This gold is supplied by bullion banks via the swaps to the BIS. The gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts (unallocated gold accounts) at major central banks such as the Federal Reserve.

The reasons for this activity have never been fully explained by the BIS and various conjectures have been made as to why the BIS has facilitated it. One conjecture is that the swaps are a mechanism for the return of gold secretly supplied by central banks to cover shortfalls in the gold markets. The use of the BIS to facilitate this trade suggests of a desire to conceal the rationale for the transactions.

As can be seen in Table A below, the BIS has used gold swaps extensively since its financial year 2009-10. No use of swaps is reported in the bank’s annual reports for at least 10 years prior to the year ended March 2010.

The February 2021 estimate of the bank’s gold swaps (552 tonnes) was higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010. The swaps reported at March 2021 were at the highest year-end level reported, as is clear from Table A.

—–

Table A — Swaps reported in BIS annual reports

March 2010: 346 tonnes.
March 2011: 409 tonnes.
March 2012: 355 tonnes.
March 2013: 404 tonnes.
March 2014: 236 tonnes.
March 2015: 47 tonnes.
March 2016: 0 tonnes.
March 2017: 438 tonnes.
March 2018: 361 tonnes.
March 2019: 175 tonnes
March 2020: 326 tonnes
March 2021: 490 tonnes
March 2022: 358 tonnes

—–

The table below reports the estimated swap levels since August 2018. It can be seen that the BIS is actively involved in trading gold swaps and other gold derivatives with changes from month to month reported in excess of 100 tonnes in this period.

—–

Table B – Swaps estimated by GATA from BIS monthly statements of account

Month ….. Swaps
& year … in tonnes

Jan-23……/103
Dec-22 … /0
Nov-22 … /105
Oct-22 ….. /7
Sep-22 …../57
Aug -22 ….. /75
Jul-22 ….. /56
Jun-22 ….. /202
May-22 ….. /270
Apr-22 ….. /315
Mar-22 …. /358
Feb-22 …. /472
Jan-22 ….. /501
Dec-21…. /414
Nov-21…. /451
Oct-21…. /414
Sep-21 …. /438
Aug-21 …. /464
Jul-21 …. /502
Jun-21 …./471
May-21 …./517
Apr-21 …. /472
Mar-21…. /490±
Feb-21 …../552
Jan-21 …. /523
Dec-20 …. /545
Nov-20 …. /520
Oct-20 …. /519
Sep-20…../ 520
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 …. / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326**
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 ….. / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370

± The estimate originally reported by GATA was 487 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 490 tonnes, It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

** The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 326 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.

—–

As noted already, the BIS in recent times has refused to explain its activities in the gold market, nor for whom the bank is acting:

https://www.gata.org/node/17793

Despite this reticence the BIS has almost certainly acted on behalf of central banks in taking out these swaps, as they are the BIS’ owners and control its Board of Directors.

This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of their interventions.

As mentioned above, it is possible that the swaps provide a mechanism for bullion banks to return gold originally lent to them by central banks to cover bullion bank shortfalls of gold. Some commentators have suggested that a portion of the gold held by exchange-traded funds and managed by bullion banks is sourced directly from central banks.

——

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.

end

Interesting: Egypt states that it ranks third in growth of gold reserves. This country is poor and yet it realizes the power of gold to its reserves.

(Egypt Independent/GATA)

Egypt says it ranks third in growth of gold reserves

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-02-12 10:01Section: Daily Dispatches

By Al-Masry Al-Youm
Egypt Independent, Cairo
Saturday, February 11, 2023

The adviser to the minister of supply and internal trade for gold industry affairs, Nagy Farag, announced Friday that Egypt ranks third globally in the growth of gold reserves.

He specified that Egypt does not rank third in total gold reserves but in terms of the strategic growth of its reserves.

Speaking to al-Hadath al-Youm channel, Farag explained that Egypt’s strategic gold reserves for 2022 increased by about 44.6 tons, to reach 125.5 tons. …

… For the remainder of the report:

Egypt ranks 3rd globally in growth of gold reserves: official

end

See below:

On ‘Live from the Vault,’ Maguire and Macleod discuss Russia’s weaponizing gold

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-02-12 10:10Section: Daily Dispatches10:09a ET

Sunday, February 12, 2023Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:On Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program this week, London metals trader Andrew Maguire and GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod discuss the plans of Russia and other countries to develop a gold-based trade settlement currency. As Russia weaponizes gold, Macleod sees the U.S. dollar as being extremely vulnerable in the foreign exchange markets.The discussion is an hour and 18 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube

here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0wsJ3tyaSk

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

This is a must view: Andrew Maguire and Alasdair Macleod discuss the new multipolar gold/silver price structure

to be initiated by Russia and China. This will be the death blow of the uSA dollar

(Andrew Maguire/Alasdair Macleod)

10:09a ET Sunday, February 12, 2023

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

On Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program this week, London metals trader Andrew Maguire and GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod discuss the plans of Russia and other countries to develop a gold-based trade settlement currency. As Russia weaponizes gold, Macleod sees the U.S. dollar as being extremely vulnerable in the foreign exchange markets.

The discussion is an hour and 18 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: NICKEL +

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

This should be lots of fun

Keith Stocklin/EpochTimes)

FTX Lawyers Escalate Threats To Politicians: Return Donations Or Be Sued

SATURDAY, FEB 11, 2023 – 06:05 PM

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times,

FTX bankruptcy attorneys sent out private letters last week to politicians and PACs who received donations from the company, giving them until Feb. 28 to return the money voluntarily or face legal action.

According to a company statement, “to the extent such payments are not returned voluntarily, the FTX Debtors reserve the right to commence actions before the Bankruptcy Court to require the return of such payments, with interest accruing from the date any action is commenced.”

Based on data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC), Coindesk, a cryptocurrency news site, identified 196 U.S. senators and representatives who accepted FTX donations. Meanwhile, Unusual Whales, a retail trading platform, compiled their own tally of political recipients of FTX money, who donated to whom, and whether or not the money was returned.

Largest donations by Sam Bankman-Fried to Democratic PACs (blue), GOP PACs (red), and Independent PACs (purple); data compiled by Unusual Whales. (UnusualWhales.com / Federal Election Commission)

Legal experts say it would probably be wise for the politicians to comply with FTX attorneys’ request before things go to court.

“John Ray [CEO of FTX in bankruptcy] and his team will likely pursue fraudulent transfer litigation against politicians and PACs if they do not return the funds, as FTX has repeatedly requested,” Thad Wilson, a partner and bankruptcy expert at King & Spalding, told The Epoch Times. Even though politicians may have a legal defense, he said, going to court would be expensive, and those who received only a few thousand dollars “would probably be better off returning the money. For larger recipients, like PACs and parties, the economics may look very different.”

Donations by Bankman-Fried to candidate PACS, Democrats (blue), and Republicans (red). (UnusualWhales.com / Federal Election Commission)

Wilson cited the precedent of Craig Berkman, a financier charged by the SEC with defrauding investors, who had donated to the presidential campaigns of John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani in 2007–2008.

“After Berkman filed for bankruptcy in 2009, many of the campaigns and candidates who received funds from Berkman were sued and/or returned the funds to Berkman’s bankruptcy trustee,” Wilson said.

Collapse of FTX

FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried, together with other top FTX executives, lavished more than $70 million on politicians and political organizations leading up to the 2022 midterm elections, making FTX the third-largest political donor and Bankman-Fried the second-largest donor to the Democratic Party after George Soros.

According to data collected by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, led by economist Stephen Moore, Bankman-Fried himself gave $40 million, mostly to Democratic candidates. His co-CEO, Ryan Salame, reportedly gave more than $20 million to Republicans and conservative groups. And FTX engineering director Nishad Singh reportedly gave nearly $13 million to Democrats and left-wing causes.

Bankman-Fried was arrested for securities fraud in December, following the collapse of FTX, his Bahamas-based cryptocurrency exchange, and Alameda Research, his crypto hedge fund. He was subsequently extradited to the United States to face criminal charges that included securities fraud, wire fraud, money laundering, and campaign finance violations. He was quickly released on a $250 million bond and is residing at his parents’ home in California, which was put up as collateral for the bond.

‘Timing of the Charges’

Currently, the House Financial Services Committee is itself investigating the FTX investigation. Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) and Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chairman Bill Huizenga (R- Mich.) issued a letter on Feb. 10 to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler demanding to know why Bankman-Fried was arrested just prior to his scheduled testimony before the House of Representatives on Dec. 13 and instructing him to preserve all records between the SEC and the Justice Department in connection with Bankman-Fried’s arrest.

“The timing of the charges and his arrest raise serious questions about the SEC’s process and cooperation with the Department of Justice,” the letter states. It was assumed that Bankman-Fried would be questioned at this hearing regarding, among other things, his political ties and donations.

At the height of his fame, Bankman-Fried was hailed as a financial genius and selfless philanthropist, worth $16 billion at one point, who vowed to give all his wealth away to progressive causes like saving the environment and preventing pandemics. He was also a strong supporter of a bipartisan bill to regulate the crypto market known as the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act.

This bill was sponsored by Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), and John Thune (R-S.D.), all of whom received at least $5,800 in political donations from Bankman-Fried. Stabenow was the top recipient of individual donations to lawmakers, having received more than $25,000.

Among the largest overall recipients was President Joe Biden’s 2020 election campaign, to which Bankman-Fried reportedly donated more than $10 million in various forms. Asked if Biden planned to return that money, White House Spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre refused to answer, stating: “I’m covered here by the Hatch Act.” Jean-Pierre added that she was “limited on what I can say and anything that’s connected to political contributions.”

The Hatch Act, passed in 1939, bans the use of federal funds for electoral purposes and also bans federal officials from coercing political support with the promise of public jobs or funds. It is unclear how the Hatch Act prevented Jean-Pierre from answering reporters’ questions.

‘You Have to Be Just’

According to Bruce Markell, a former bankruptcy judge and currently a law professor at Northwestern University, the answer to whether or not FTX would succeed in clawing back political donations in court is “a strong maybe.” FTX lawyers will likely claim that the donations were a fraudulent transfer according to bankruptcy laws that allow “debtors in possession” to recover donations made, in some cases, up to two years before the bankruptcy was filed.

To make a case for fraudulent transfer, FTX lawyers would likely argue that the company was already insolvent at the time of the donations and therefore that money rightly belongs to FTX creditors.

“The words have been used, ‘you have to be just before you’re generous,’” Markell said. Companies that are insolvent “have to pay creditors before you make donations.” With FTX accounting in notorious disarray and the high volatility of the valuations of FTX assets, however, the timing of the company’s insolvency could be a gray area.

“Google can make all the donations in the world they want because after they make donations, they have enough money left over to pay the creditors,” he explained. “FTX is an accounting nightmare.” Reaching a resolution in the courts, if it goes that way, would probably take years.

Some recipients have decided not to gamble and have returned the donations to FTX or to the U.S. Treasury Department. Others say they have donated the money to charity, but giving the money away may not get them off the hook.

‘Donation to a Third Party’

“Recipients are cautioned that making a payment or donation to a third party (including a charity) in the amount of any payment received from a FTX Contributor does not prevent the FTX Debtors from seeking recovery from the recipient or any subsequent transferee,” FTX warned.

“Making a charitable contribution is a nice public relations ploy to try distance yourself or your campaign from allegedly corrupt contributors,” Wilson said. “But giving the money to charity does not absolve a politician or her campaign from liability under the Bankruptcy Code or applicable state law.”

“The charities who receive money from politicians could be considered ‘subsequent transferees’ for fraudulent transfer purposes, and thus, they could get sued, too,” he said. “In fact, the politicians and PACs could be making things worse for the charities to which they are donating.”

The PACs themselves could be on the hook to repay millions even if the money has already been spent.

“As a ‘transferee’ of the funds, they would be liable for the payment if a court determines it was a fraudulent transfer,” Wilson said. And beyond that, the vendors or organizations that were paid by PACs could also be on the hook as “subsequent transferees.” Bankman-Fried and his family could potentially be held liable if they received FTX funds, or if they are found to be “aiding and abetting” fraudulent transfers.

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8244

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8320

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.49 PTS OR 0.72%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 26.00 PTS OR 0.12%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 26.00 PTS OR 0.12%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.41 Euro RISES TO 1.0690 UP 24 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 132.42/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.3765%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.207%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.403…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.200//

3j Gold at $1859.50//silver at: 21.98 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 27/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 73.66//

3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 86 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.42/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .500% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9209– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9849 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.732% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.798 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,85…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.458% UP 6 BASIS PTS

end

i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Rebound, Trade Near Session Highs Amid Global UFO Hullaballoon

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 08:11 AM

US index futures reversed an earlier drop and traded near session highs as traders braced for inflation data that will may support the Fed’s commitment to further policy tightening (or it may not), and as the world was transfixed by a global UFO hullaballoo(n). S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% at 8:00am ET while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% after the underlying index suffered its first weekly loss of 2023. European stocks rose to trade near session highs, lifted by construction, industrial goods and consumer stocks while energy and real estate underperformed. The dollar pushed higher, Treasuries were little changed and oil slipped after Friday’s jump; bitcoin slumped.

In premarket trading, Sorrento Therapeutics slumped after the drug developer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Texas. Shares of major US tech and internet companies rose premarket, meanwhile Evercore ISI upgraded Zillow Group to outperform from in line. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Advance Auto Parts Inc. is cut to neutral from buy at Roth, with the broker saying it can no longer dismiss the company’s “serial under-performance” against peers, adding its market share is “unwinding quickly.” Shares decline 0.9%.
BigBear.ai and SoundHound AI (SOUN lead fellow artificial intelligence-related stocks higher. This rebound comes after several stocks faltered on Friday as caution toward AI-related shares set in. Bigbear.ai gains 3.7%. SoundHound AI is up 2.5bbai%.
Capri Holdings is downgraded to market perform from outperform at Cowen, with the broker saying it has concerns about the company’s wholesale channel and the Michael Kors brand. Shares decline 0.8%.
Coinbase could ultimately benefit over the long term from the increased scrutiny that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is putting on the staking of digital assets, according to Piper Sandler. Coinbase drops 1.7%.
Gracell Biotechnologies climbs 1.4% after the company says the Center for Drug Evaluation of China’s National Medical Products Administration has cleared Gracell’s Investigational New Drug application for GC012F, an autologous CAR-T therapeutic candidate, for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma.
Immunovant Inc. gains 3.1% after Guggenheim upgraded it to buy from neutral, with analyst Yatin Suneja optimistic for its new drug candidate IMVT-1402.
Microsoft shares are up 1.4% with analysts optimistic about the software company’s long-term growth potential.
Ocular Therapeutix Inc. rises 14% after the company announced 10-month interim data from an early-stage study of its experimental treatment for wet age-related macular degeneration.
Proto Labs Inc.shares are up 2.5% after Benchmark Co upgraded the 3D printing company to buy from hold.
Zillow Group Inc. shares are up 4.4% after Evercore ISI upgraded the online real estate platform to outperform from in line.
Zim Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) sinks 2.1% after the shipping company was cut to underweight from equal- weight at Barclays, which anticipates a global shipping down- cycle in 2023-2024 due to “significant oversupply” across the industry.
Shares of China’s cross-border brokerage Futu (FUTU US) falls 0.5% in US premarket trading after Hong Kong-based Bright Smart Securities says it will suspend accounts held by mainland Chinese clients starting Feb. 16.
Signa Sports United NV (SSU US) is downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies, with the broker predicting an “uphill climb” for the online sports retailer due to the challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

On Sunday, the US downed yet another flying object, the fourth so far – over Michigan yesterday, following those over northern Canada, Alaska and off the South Carolina coast – after deciding to be more cautious. The Pentagon doesn’t yet know what the most recent objects are and isn’t ruling out anything at this point. Meanwhile, China said US balloons have flown over its airspace more than 10 times since 2022.

The January CPI report on Tuesday is expected to show an increase of 0.5% from a month earlier, spurred in part by higher gasoline costs. That would mark the biggest gain in three months. Excluding fuels and foods, so-called core prices — which better reflect underlying inflation — are seen rising 0.4% for a second month. The BLS changed how CPI is calculated. They changed some weightings which had the effect of showing that less progress was made on inflation than previously thought.

Amid the new data, investors will be reassessing how high US interest rates will rise this year, with inflation and jobs data likely to still come in hot later this week. That has fueled bets for the Fed rate to peak at 5.2% in July, up from less than 5% a month ago.

“We are certainly continuing to be very cautious on equities,” Nannette Hechler-Fayd’Herbe, chief investment officer at Credit Suisse International Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “We find at the moment there is a disconnect in valuations versus where interest rates by the Fed — but also by other central banks — are going to be for the remainder of the year.”

The rally in US equities lost steam last week over concerns that the Fed will stick to its hawkish resolve amid a strong labor market and relatively elevated inflation. Traders will parse this week’s data for clues on the path of monetary policy and the impact it could have on the US economy.

“We’re looking for a correction over the next few months to take us back down to the lower 3,000s area in the S&P 500,” Saed Abukarsh, chief portfolio manager at Ark Capital Management Dubai Ltd., told Bloomberg Television. “The incentive for the Fed to be hawkish is still there. There is no incentive for them to be less hawkish.”

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s downbeat in house permabear argued that US stocks are ripe for a selloff after prematurely pricing in a pause in Fed rate hikes. “While the recent move higher in front-end rates is supportive of the notion that the Fed may remain restrictive for longer than appreciated, the equity market is refusing to accept this reality,” Michael Wilson wrote in a note (more shortly). Wilson — the top-ranked strategist in last year’s Institutional Investor survey — expects deteriorating fundamentals, along with Fed hikes that are coming at the same time as an earnings recession, to drive equities to an ultimate low this spring. “Price is about as disconnected from reality as it’s been during this bear market,” the strategists said.

European stocks rose as the EU Commission lifts its growth forecast for the euro-area in 2023 while lowering estimates for inflation. The Stoxx 600 trade higher by 0.6%, rising to session highs, with outperformance seen in the industrial, construction and consumer product sectors. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

Kape Technologies shares rise as much as 13%, to 292.5p, and trade above the 285p offer made by majority holder Teddy Sagi to buy the remaining shares in the UK software company
Smiths shares rise as much as 2.6% in early trading, Weir gains as much as 2.5% and Epiroc rises as much as 3.4%, after Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on 10 European capital goods stocks
Credit Suisse shares fall as much as 3.2%, resuming their slide following a Friday bounce after Vontobel trims its price target on the Swiss lender and Kepler Chevreux downgraded its recommendation to reduce from hold. The latter also cut its price target to a level implying a 26% fall from the last price
Castellum falls as much as 11%, the most since March 2020, before paring losses after the Swedish real estate group announced a SEK10 billion ($955 million) rights offering
Nel shares fall as much as 4%, as Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the electrolyzer firm to neutral following recent outperformance, though the broker remains bullish on the clean hydrogen outlook
Network International shares fall as much as 4.1% on Monday, after Barclays downgraded the payment firm to equal-weight from overweight, citing the sharp slowdown in the firm’s card issuing business in the fourth quarter

Asian stocks fell, heading to their lowest level in about a month, as investors awaited key inflation data from the world’s largest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.2%, extending losses after a two-week rout. Tech stocks led the slump with TSMC and Tokyo Electron dragging the gauge the most. Benchmarks in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore slid while those in Hong Kong fluctuated. Asian stocks have declined over the past two weeks as strong US jobs data and hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials dashed hopes of an interest-rate pivot. Investors are reassessing how high US rates will rise this year, with inflation and jobs data likely to still come in hot later this week. “Part of the reason for the overall decline goes to a lack of economic reports to offset the chorus of central bankers chanting ‘higher for longer,’” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, adding that investor nervousness may decrease after the release of US inflation figures due Tuesday. China’s defense stocks gained after domestic news outlet The Paper reported that the nation is getting ready to take down an unidentified object flying over waters near the port city of Qingdao. Meanwhile, equities in Japan underperformed amid expectations that Kazuo Ueda, who is expected to be nominated as Japan’s central bank governor, will adopt faster policy normalization

Japanese stocks fell as investors turned cautious ahead of US inflation data due Tuesday. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting the outcome of the official BOJ governor nomination, with the market weighing Kazuo Ueda’s potential policy stance. The Topix Index fell 0.5% to 1,977.67 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 0.9% to 27,427.32. Sony Group contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 1.9%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 702 rose and 1,356 fell, while 105 were unchanged. “Stocks are down partly to reflect the adjustment in US tech stocks last week and the market seems to still be digesting information regarding the potential new BOJ chief,” said Takeru Ogihara, chief strategist at Asset Management One. “Regardless of who the new governor is, BOJ seems to be moving towards monetary policy normalization, which would lead the interest rate and bank stocks to rise.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to 7,417.80 as investors assess earnings and brace for a critical US inflation report due this week. Consumer discretionary shares led sector losses, dragged lower by Star Entertainment after the casino operator said its Sydney trading has been hit by operating restrictions and competition from Crown. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.9% to 12,075.18

India stocks also declined for a second day ahead of the release of consumer-price data later on Monday which came in hotter than expected (6.52% vs exp. 6.50% and up sharply from 5.72% for December). India’s central bank remains watchful of inflation and is open to using monetary policy action to tame price pressures further. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.4% to 60,431.84 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.5%. All but three of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector gauges traded lower, led by service industry stocks. Infosys contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 2.5%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 11 rose and 18 fell, while 1 was unchanged.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.3% before reversing gains, with the greenback trading mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. The USD/JPY gained 0.9% to 132.60 as the Japanese yen underperforms its G-10 counterparts. The New Zealand dollar is the best performer, adding 0.4% versus the greenback.

The euro was steady at $1.0677. Bunds and Italian bonds reversed opening losses as money markets pared ECB tightening wagers.
The New Zealand dollar was the best performer and the yen was the worst. The Treasury curve twist-flattened very modestly. Data on Tuesday are expected to show US consumer price index for January increased 0.5% from a month earlier.
The pound dipped against the dollar and the euro ahead of a busy week of UK data including jobs and inflation figures for January. Gilts inched lower
The yen dropped as much as 1.1% 132.77 per dollar ahead of the nomination of a new BOJ governor and before the US inflation print
Australian sovereign bonds slipped, following Treasuries amid mounting anxiety over how high the Federal Reserve will have to hike rates in its battle with inflation

In rates, Treasuries were narrowly mixed with the curve flatter and long-end slightly richer on the day while front-end trades slightly cheaper vs Friday’s close. In Europe, gilts underperform with busy week of issuance lined-up. US 10-year yields little changed on the day at 3.735% with bunds and gilts underperforming by 1bp and 3bp in the sector; long-end outperformance on Treasury curve flattens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 1.7bp and 2.5bp on the day. Bund futures are in the green while Gilts are slightly lower. According to Bloomberg, the dollar issuance slate is empty so far (so no rate lock trades); preliminary estimate suggests $25 billion in new issues this week with bulk of the deals expected Monday before Tuesday’s inflation data. US session light for risk events, with price action relatively calm ahead of Tuesday’s inflation data.

In commodities, crude futures reversed an earlier decline with WTI now flat just shy of $80, after sliding down almost 2% lower. Spot gold falls roughly 0.3% to trade near $1,859.

In cryptos, stablecoin issuer Paxos has been directed to stop minting Binance Coin (BUSD) by the US SEC; following on from WSJ reporting over the weekend that US SEC intends to sue stablecoin issuer Paxos, which is behind the Pax Dollar (USDP) and Binance USD (BUSD) tokens, over the latter stablecoin. India’s Finance Minister said the G20 is exploring collectively regulating cryptocurrencies, according to Reuters.

There is no macro on today’s calendar; Bowman is the only Fed speaker at 8am ET this morning

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,102.50
MXAP down 0.8% to 165.06
MXAPJ down 0.4% to 539.31
Nikkei down 0.9% to 27,427.32
Topix down 0.5% to 1,977.67
Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 21,164.42
Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,284.16
Sensex down 0.4% to 60,459.17
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,417.75
Kospi down 0.7% to 2,452.70
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 459.84
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.36%
Euro little changed at $1.0672
Brent Futures down 1.4% to $85.17/bbl
Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,857.17
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.12% to 103.76

Top Overnight News

The BOJ’s expected next governor Kazuo Ueda likely won’t rush to overhaul ultra-loose policy and will instead let economic data guide the exit timing, said Tetsuya Inoue, who was Ueda’s staff secretary when he was a central bank board member. RTRS
The euro-zone economy will fare better this year than previously feared as a mild winter and high levels of gas storage help to ease the energy crisis, and the labor market holds up, according to the European Commission. European Union officials in Brussels raised their forecast for growth this year, predicting a 0.9% expansion in the currency bloc, and said it would narrowly avoid a recession. They also cut their projection for consumer price growth, though it remains high at 5.6%. BBG
Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said it could take Russia up to another two years to capture the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and up to three if Moscow decides to take land east of the Dnipro River. WSJ
Russia lost 1140 troops on Friday, a new single-day record, bringing the total death toll to nearly 137K (and Russian casualties over the last two weeks are likely the highest of the war). Also, Russia is witnessing an historic exodus of its citizens, with 500K-1M people leaving the country since the Ukraine war began (a departure on par with the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union collapse in 1991). Insider / WA Po
“No landing” scenario gains traction among economists, raising fears the Fed still has more work to do on rates before inflation is sustainably on a path to the 2% target. WSJ
Americans with college degrees saw a 7.4% inflation-adjusted drop in income last year, the steepest fall since 2004 and one that erases nearly all pandemic-era gains. BBG
Walmart tells suppliers “no more price hikes” as it begins worrying about the effects of inflation on its customers (Walmart can also see that input costs are falling, which means suppliers have less need for incremental price increases). RTRS
Meta has delayed finalizing multiple teams’ budgets while it prepares a fresh round of job cuts (11k employees, 13% of workforce) as Mark Zuckerberg’s plan to contain costs in his “year of efficiency” causes disruption at the social media company. Also, AMZN has cut ~20% of the headcount at its Zappos subsidiary. FT / WSJ
Ford is set to announce as soon as Monday it plans to build a $3.5 billion lithium iron phosphate battery plant in Michigan, sources told Reuters. Ford is expected to own and operate the plant with Chinese battery company China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) (300750.SZ) as a technology partner to help develop the batteries. RTRS
Investors have pulled a net $31 billion from U.S. equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the past six weeks, according to Refinitiv Lipper data through Wednesday. That marks the longest streak of weekly net outflows since last summer and the most money pulled in aggregate from domestic equity funds to start a year since 2016. WSJ

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mostly subdued as geopolitical tensions lingered after the US shot down a fourth flying object and with markets bracing for Tuesday’s US CPI data, while the region also digested earnings releases and news that Japan’s government is likely to nominate academic and former BoJ member Ueda to head the central bank. ASX 200 was lacklustre with earnings in focus and the Consumer Discretionary sector was pressured alongside a more than 20% drop in Star Entertainment shares after it flagged an impairment charge of up to AUD 1.6bln. Nikkei 225 underperformed as participants pondered over the future of the BoJ with the government likely to nominate Ueda as the next central bank chief after dovish continuation candidate and BoJ’s QE policy architect Amamiya was said to turn down the role. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong pressured early on by weakness in property and tech, while the mainland was kept afloat after China’s recent loans and aggregate financing data topped forecasts with New Yuan Loans at a record high for January.

Top Asian News

PBoC and CBIRC published rules on the risk classification of banks’ financial assets which will take effect on July 1st, with the tightened management regulations aimed at assessing banks’ credit risks more accurately, reflecting lenders’ real asset quality, according to Reuters.
Japan’s Upper House of Parliament is to hold confirmation hearings on the government’s nominations for the BoJ Governor and Deputy Governors on February 27th, according to sources cited by Reuters.
BoJ’s expected next chief Ueda is likely to allow the data to guide the exit timing, according to Tetsuya Inoue who was Ueda’s former staff secretary during his time as a BoJ board member, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Ministry says senior diplomat Wang Yi will visit France, Italy, Russia and Hungary this month and attend the Munich Security Conference.

European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, with fresh developments limited and the schedule relatively sparse ahead of Tuesday’s key events. Sectors are predominantly in the green, featuring outperformance in Travel and Construction names while Energy and Real Estate lag on benchmark pricing and broker activity respectively. US futures are incrementally in the green with the NQ leading slightly though overall performance is contained as we look towards Tuesday’s CPI with Fed’s Bowman due beforehand. Turkey is reportedly considering extending its stock market closure, according to Bloomberg sources.

Top European News

UK PM Sunak has reportedly asked ministers and officials to draw up plans for rebuilding the UK’s relations with the EU, according to Bloomberg.
UK employers are expected to increase wages by the most since 2012 with median expectations for a 5% pay rise, while 55% of recruiters were planning to lift base or variable pay this year, according to a CIPD survey cited by Reuters.
Germany’s CDU is set to win in the repeat election in Berlin with 28% of votes, while Chancellor Scholz’s SDP party received just 18% of votes in a blow for the party which has governed the city-state for 22 years, according to ZDF.
Moody’s affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable on Friday.
EU Commission Forecasts: EZ to avoid the prev. expected technical recession, 0.1% QQ growth in Q4-2022 and 0.00% QQ in Q1-2023. Click here for more detail.
Ship traffic has Turkey’s Bosphorus strait has been suspended amid salvage operations of a ship, according to Tribeca shipping agency.

USD is bid though peers, ex-JPY, are generally fairly contained after Friday’s DXY rebound and ahead of US Tier 1 data and Fed speak throughout the week.
At best, the USD has been up to 103.84 with USD/JPY as high as 132.76 as we await confirmation of Ueda’s nomination for the BoJ and after reports indicate he will be data-driven when deciding on the appropriate point to end ultra-accommodation.
At the other end of the spectrum, NZD is the relative outperformer and holding above 0.6300 as it pares losses vs AUD with data due overnight for the region; AUD/USD holding near 0.6900.
CHF saw some fleeting strength in wake of hot domestic CPI while both EUR and GBP were unreactive to respective Central Bank speakers; around 0.923, 1.067 and 1.204 vs USD respectively.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8151 vs exp. 6.8160 (prev. 6.7884)

Central Banks

ECB’s Visco said there is no question that the restriction of the euro area monetary stance must continue and reiterated the pace of any further rate hike will continue to be decided based on incoming data and their impact on the inflation outlook, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Centeno says they need to be open minded with data, via Bloomberg TV; inflation surprised the ECB to the downside. Smaller hikes would need mid-term (i.e. 2024/2025) inflation nearing 2%. Labour market is a positive surprise, no signs of second round effects re. wages.
BoE’s Haskel says “it is true that when we raise rates that is not good for investment. I absolutely accept that, and therefore we are potentially contributing to that very poor capital investment”, according to an interview with Matthew Klein; would prefer to make policy with much more attention on the data flow over the next few months.

Fixed Income

EGBs have experienced a firm bounce with Bunds comfortably above 136.00 to a peak circa. 30 ticks above, with technicals and perhaps ECB speak factoring.
Amidst this, Gilts are more contained as they struggle to convincingly eclipse 104.00 while USTs reside at the top-end of narrow 112.18 to 11224 intra-day parameters.
As such, EGB yields are modestly softer while the US curve is flat to mixed pre-Bowman.

Commodities

WTI March and Brent April futures are softer and towards the bottom of intraday ranges as the complex takes a breather from last week’s gains.
While today’s commodity-related schedule is limited, we do have the Olso Energy Conference (14-16th Feb) and the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium (15th Feb) in the near term.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said OPEC remain committed to stabilising global oil prices and their latest forecast shows oil demand will exceed pandemic levels this year to reach nearly 102mln bpd, while oil demand is expected to reach 110mln bpd by 2025, according to Reuters.
Azerbaijani oil shipments at Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal resumed after the recent earthquake, according to a (BP/ LN) representative cited by Reuters.
IEA sees the power sector set for a tipping point on emissions in 2025 and for electricity demand to increase by an average 3% through to 2025 with more than 70% of the global electricity demand increase over the next 3 years to come from China, India and south-east Asia, according to FT.
Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russia is looking to sell over 80% of its oil exports and 75% of its oil product exports to “friendly” nations in 2023; sees potential for increase of Russian natural gas exports to the APAC region.
China’s CNPC is reportedly close to sealing a long-term agreement to purchase LNG from QatarEnergy’s north field expansion, via Reuters citing sources.
Spot gold is slightly softer with a stronger USD factoring and pressuring the yellow metal to a test of Friday’s USD 1852/oz trough at worst, while base metals are softer amid the tentative tone and USD.

Geopolitics

EU set to propose new Russia sanctions, potentially targeting tech exports used for military purposes, heavy vehicles and rubber, as well as dozens of listings, according to Bloomberg’s Nardelli citing sources.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine but without preconditions and noted that any negotiations should take into account current realities on the field, according to TASS.
Russia said it hit energy facilities in Ukraine on Friday, according to RIA. it was also reported that Russian troops took the village of Krasna Hora which is north of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, according to Reuters.
Canada’s Defence Minister announced that a fighter jet shot down an object about 100 miles from the US-Canadian border which was a small cylindrical object and had posed a reasonable threat to civilian aviation, while the Defence Minister added it is not prudent to speculate on the origin of the object, according to Reuters.
US military shot down a fourth flying object over Lake Huron in Michigan which was an octagonal structure with no discernible payload, while the US did not assess the latest object to be a military threat and was shot down due to its potential surveillance capabilities after it flew in proximity to sensitive military sites, according to Reuters.
China spotted a mystery flying object over the waters near the coastal city of Rizhao in the Shandong province which authorities were preparing to shoot down, according to SCMP.
China’s Foreign Ministry says that since last year US high-altitude balloons flew over Chinese airspace without their permission on over 10 occasions.
Taiwan has observed dozens of Chinese military balloon flights in its airspace in recent years, according to FT.
UK is to launch a security review related to China’s spy balloons, according to The Telegraph
China is reportedly contemplating tripling its stockpile of nuclear warheads to 900 by 2035, according to sources cited by Japan Times.

Crypto

Stablecoin issuer Paxos has been directed to stop minting Binance Coin (BUSD) by the US SEC; following on from WSJ reporting over the weekend that US SEC intends to sue stablecoin issuer Paxos, which is behind the Pax Dollar (USDP) and Binance USD (BUSD) tokens, over the latter stablecoin.
India’s Finance Minister said the G20 is exploring collectively regulating cryptocurrencies, according to Reuters.
Binance and TRON reached an agreement in which Binance will reduce transaction fees on the Tron network with withdrawal frees returned to previous levels, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

Nothing major scheduled

Central Bank Speakers

08:00: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Banking Conference

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I was left alone with Maisie yesterday morning while the twins went to “Ninja Warriors” which is basically a venue aimed at making children as tired as they possibly can be to give their parents a rest later. However my wife came back more tired than the boys as she had to join in! Anyway I used the couple of hours to try to write a surprise Valentine’s Day song from Maisie to her mum. However I did it slightly differently. I asked ChatGPT to come up with some song lyrics given a selection of information about the family. The results were fairly spectacular and although I didn’t use it all, I used it a starting point and tweaked around it. I’m pretty sure AI will revolutionise the written word in the years ahead. So if you’ve forgotten a present for your loved one for tomorrow why not ask chatGPT to write a poem for and about them. What could be more romantic than letting a robot and algorithm work out the words to express your love!

On the most romantic day of the year tomorrow, the pheromones in the financial community might be dictated by a pretty important US CPI print. Sadly chatGPT can’t give us any guidance there.

It only feels like yesterday that US inflation prints were seen as last year’s news given the recent falls. In addition, forecasts and breakevens suggested we were on a glide path to normality over the next few months and quarters.

However that view has received a bit of a jolt in the last 10 days. First we had payrolls print which raised the prospect that core services ex-shelter could stay stronger for longer. Then we had lots of hawkish central bank speak that the market had previously ignored but was now slowly waking up to. Then Manheim suggested US used cars (+2.5% mom in January) climbed at their fastest rate for 14-months and finally we had US CPI revisions on Friday that have rewritten the last year of history and in turn reduced core inflation by around a tenth each month leading up to June and have increased it by an average of around a tenth in each month since August. As such the trend in core CPI hasn’t fallen as much as expected and we now haven’t seen any month less than +0.3% MoM. In addition 3m annualised core CPI ran at 4.3% in December rather than the 3.1% reported at the January 12th release. So although year on year hasn’t changed the momentum is notably different.

This feeds into work done by our economists over the last few weeks suggesting that inflation is going to be edging up again before it falls. See their chart book “The rise before the fall” (link here) for more on this.

For tomorrow’s reading, higher gas prices should boost headline MoM CPI (+0.42% DB forecast, consensus +0.5%). Last month this printed at -0.1% but got revised up to +0.1% on Friday. Core MoM should be stable (DB +0.36% vs. +0.4% consensus) but only because Friday’s revisions saw it edge up from 0.3% to 0.4% last month. As strong prints from this time last year edge out of the data, the YoY rates should fall around two tenths each to 6.2% and 5.5% (consensus unchanged at 5.7%), respectively. If you want to get more into the weeds see DB’s Justin Weidner’s preview here.

Staying with inflation, US PPI on Thursday is also important as the medical services component feeds directly into the equivalent within the core PCE number (out Feb 24th).

Elsewhere in the US we have leading indicators (LEI) on Friday which are expected to pickup, but stay in negative territory in January after an awful print for December. January retail sales on Wednesday is also expected to bounce back after a poor end to the year. There are also a couple of regional factory surveys (NY on Weds and Philli Thurs) which along with industrial production (Weds) are also all expected to bounce to varying degrees. Thursday will also see the usual jobless claims alongside housing starts and building permits (1.350 vs. 1.337k).

Fed speakers will have plenty of opportunity to address the data throughout the week, with at least ten appearances scheduled so far. There are a number of appearances from ECB officials as well. See the highlights in the day by day week ahead calendar at the end as usual.

Shifting to Europe, UK CPI (Weds) and labour market data (tomorrow) will be in focus following the recent more dovish BoE meeting. This week’s CPI will also be calculated with new weights so our UK economists put out a note on the potential impact of the changes here.

Turning to earnings now, with nearly 350 of the S&P 500 members having reported, there will still be a few notable corporates releasing results but the reality is that we are past the biggest potential market movers for the macro world.

Asian equity markets are starting an important week on the back foot. The Nikkei (-0.98%) is leading losses with the KOSPI (-0.91%) and Hang Seng (-0.47%) losing ground. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are bucking the regional trend with the CSI (+0.62%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.53%) seeing decent gains.

Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating a negative start with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.42%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.49%) trading lower following a disappointing week on Wall Street.

In FX markets, the Japanese yen (-0.57%) continues to remain volatile, trading at 132.11 to the dollar ahead of the Japanese government’s official nomination on the new BOJ Governor scheduled tomorrow. On the oil front, prices are lower this morning with Brent futures (-1.03%) trading at $85.50/bbl and WTI (-1.17%) at $78.79/bbl after a strong past week.

Looking back on that week now, markets moved to price in more aggressive rate hikes from both the Fed and the ECB than had previously been expected. In the US, the fed futures market ended the week pricing a 5.188% rate for July meeting, marking the highest close of this cycle so far. That was an increase of +18.0bps on the week and +4.5bps on Friday. The prospect of more rate hikes reverberated in fixed income markets, with 10yr Treasuries yields up +7.4bps on Friday and +20.7bps over the week, reaching their highest levels since the end of December.

Over in Europe, overnight index swaps similarly moved to price in a higher terminal rate for the ECB at the July meeting, increasing by +18.4bps over the week (+5.8bps on Friday) to 3.501%, the highest level since the end of December. Fixed income markets extended their hawkish shift, with 2yr German bund yields jumping to their highest since 2008, up +7.2bps on Friday. This added to earlier increases, with 2yr bunds up +21.4bps over the week. 10yr bunds also fell back, as yields jumped +17.1bps over the week (+6.1bps on Friday).

Over in equity markets, last week was the worst of 2023 so far following a very strong start to the year. The S&P 500 was down -1.11% over the week (-0.22% on Friday), its largest decline in weekly terms since mid-December. The NASDAQ also saw its largest weekly loss since December, falling back -2.41% (-0.61% on Friday). The STOXX 600 also fell back, down -0.63% (-0.96% on Friday).

In other news from Friday, it was widely reported that Kazuo Ueda was set to be appointed as the BoJ’s next governor. Ueda is an academic economist and former policy board member of the BoJ. According to our Japanese economists (link), Ueda is not considered to be hawkish and he would be wary of lifting monetary easing too early. However, foreign exchange markets saw Ueda in a more hawkish light, with the Yen reacting positively to the news, rallying + 1.33% against the US Dollar following the news, before reversing over the course of the day. The Nikkei closed up +0.59% on the week (+0.31% on Friday)

In other data releases on Friday, we had a downward surprise for UK GDP growth for December, which printed at -0.5% month-on-month (vs -0.3% expected). However, a technical recession (2 consecutive quarterly contractions) was just avoided with zero growth in Q4 as a whole, following a -0.2% contraction in Q2. Against this backdrop, the FTSE 100 was down -0.36% on Friday and fell back -0.24% on the week.

Over in commodities, oil prices saw further gains on Friday following the news that Russia would be cutting output from next month. WTI was up +8.63% for the week (+2.13% on Friday) to $79.72/bbl, and Brent crude rose up +8.07% (+2.24% on Friday) to $86.39/bbl. European natural gas futures fell -6.81% over the week (+2.30% on Friday).

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

USD bid with JPY lagging, US equity futures & USTs fairly contained pre-Bowman – Newsquawk US Market Open

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 06:29 AM

European bourses are modestly firmer with US futures similar but slightly more contained ahead of Tuesday’s CPI and the week’s Fed speak.
USD is bid though peers, ex-JPY, are generally fairly contained overall; USD/JPY up to 132.76 as we await confirmation of Ueda’s nomination.
EGBs have experienced a firm bounce with technicals and ECB speak perhaps factoring, USTs more contained with yields flat/mixed.
WTI March and Brent April futures are softer and towards the bottom of intraday ranges as the complex takes a breather from last week’s gains.
US military shot down a fourth ‘flying object’ while China has spotted a mystery object near Rizhao, Shandong
Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese GDP, NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, Fed’s Bowman & ECB’s Centeno.

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, with fresh developments limited and the schedule relatively sparse ahead of Tuesday’s key events.
Sectors are predominantly in the green, featuring outperformance in Travel and Construction names while Energy and Real Estate lag on benchmark pricing and broker activity respectively.
US futures are incrementally in the green with the NQ leading slightly though overall performance is contained as we look towards Tuesday’s CPI with Fed’s Bowman due beforehand.
Turkey is reportedly considering extending its stock market closure, according to Bloomberg sources.
Click here for more detail.

FX

USD is bid though peers, ex-JPY, are generally fairly contained after Friday’s DXY rebound and ahead of US Tier 1 data and Fed speak throughout the week.
At best, the USD has been up to 103.84 with USD/JPY as high as 132.76 as we await confirmation of Ueda’s nomination for the BoJ and after reports indicate he will be data-driven when deciding on the appropriate point to end ultra-accommodation.
At the other end of the spectrum, NZD is the relative outperformer and holding above 0.6300 as it pares losses vs AUD with data due overnight for the region; AUD/USD holding near 0.6900.
CHF saw some fleeting strength in wake of hot domestic CPI while both EUR and GBP were unreactive to respective Central Bank speakers; around 0.923, 1.067 and 1.204 vs USD respectively.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8151 vs exp. 6.8160 (prev. 6.7884)
Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

EGBs have experienced a firm bounce with Bunds comfortably above 136.00 to a peak circa. 30 ticks above, with technicals and perhaps ECB speak factoring.
Amidst this, Gilts are more contained as they struggle to convincingly eclipse 104.00 while USTs reside at the top-end of narrow 112.18 to 11224 intra-day parameters.
As such, EGB yields are modestly softer while the US curve is flat to mixed pre-Bowman.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

WTI March and Brent April futures are softer and towards the bottom of intraday ranges as the complex takes a breather from last week’s gains.
While today’s commodity-related schedule is limited, we do have the Olso Energy Conference (14-16th Feb) and the IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium (15th Feb) in the near term.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said OPEC remain committed to stabilising global oil prices and their latest forecast shows oil demand will exceed pandemic levels this year to reach nearly 102mln bpd, while oil demand is expected to reach 110mln bpd by 2025, according to Reuters.
Azerbaijani oil shipments at Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal resumed after the recent earthquake, according to a (BP/ LN) representative cited by Reuters.
IEA sees the power sector set for a tipping point on emissions in 2025 and for electricity demand to increase by an average 3% through to 2025 with more than 70% of the global electricity demand increase over the next 3 years to come from China, India and south-east Asia, according to FT.
Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russia is looking to sell over 80% of its oil exports and 75% of its oil product exports to “friendly” nations in 2023; sees potential for increase of Russian natural gas exports to the APAC region.
China’s CNPC is reportedly close to sealing a long-term agreement to purchase LNG from QatarEnergy’s north field expansion, via Reuters citing sources.
Spot gold is slightly softer with a stronger USD factoring and pressuring the yellow metal to a test of Friday’s USD 1852/oz trough at worst, while base metals are softer amid the tentative tone and USD.
Click here for more detail.

CENTRAL BANKS

ECB’s Visco said there is no question that the restriction of the euro area monetary stance must continue and reiterated the pace of any further rate hike will continue to be decided based on incoming data and their impact on the inflation outlook, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Centeno says they need to be open minded with data, via Bloomberg TV; inflation surprised the ECB to the downside. Smaller hikes would need mid-term (i.e. 2024/2025) inflation nearing 2%. Labour market is a positive surprise, no signs of second round effects re. wages.
BoE’s Haskel says “it is true that when we raise rates that is not good for investment. I absolutely accept that, and therefore we are potentially contributing to that very poor capital investment”, according to an interview with Matthew Klein; would prefer to make policy with much more attention on the data flow over the next few months.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

UK PM Sunak has reportedly asked ministers and officials to draw up plans for rebuilding the UK’s relations with the EU, according to Bloomberg.
UK employers are expected to increase wages by the most since 2012 with median expectations for a 5% pay rise, while 55% of recruiters were planning to lift base or variable pay this year, according to a CIPD survey cited by Reuters.
Germany’s CDU is set to win in the repeat election in Berlin with 28% of votes, while Chancellor Scholz’s SDP party received just 18% of votes in a blow for the party which has governed the city-state for 22 years, according to ZDF.
Moody’s affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable on Friday.
EU Commission Forecasts: EZ to avoid the prev. expected technical recession, 0.1% QQ growth in Q4-2022 and 0.00% QQ in Q1-2023. Click here for more detail.
Ship traffic has Turkey’s Bosphorus strait has been suspended amid salvage operations of a ship, according to Tribeca shipping agency.

DATA RECAP

Swiss CPI YY (Jan) 3.3% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%); MM (Jan) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.2%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US House Oversight Committee Chair Comer said Republicans will not cut social security or Medicare but everything else is on the table in discussions regarding the debt ceiling, according to Reuters.
Former Cypriot Foreign Minister Christodoulides won the presidential election with 51.9% of votes vs Andreas Mavroyiaanis at 48.1% of votes, according to Reuters.
- Iranian President Raisi will travel to China this week at the invitation of Chinese President Xi, according to China’s Foreign Ministry.
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

EU set to propose new Russia sanctions, potentially targeting tech exports used for military purposes, heavy vehicles and rubber, as well as dozens of listings, according to Bloomberg’s Nardelli citing sources.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine but without preconditions and noted that any negotiations should take into account current realities on the field, according to TASS.
Russia said it hit energy facilities in Ukraine on Friday, according to RIA. it was also reported that Russian troops took the village of Krasna Hora which is north of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, according to Reuters.
Canada’s Defence Minister announced that a fighter jet shot down an object about 100 miles from the US-Canadian border which was a small cylindrical object and had posed a reasonable threat to civilian aviation, while the Defence Minister added it is not prudent to speculate on the origin of the object, according to Reuters.
US military shot down a fourth flying object over Lake Huron in Michigan which was an octagonal structure with no discernible payload, while the US did not assess the latest object to be a military threat and was shot down due to its potential surveillance capabilities after it flew in proximity to sensitive military sites, according to Reuters.
China spotted a mystery flying object over the waters near the coastal city of Rizhao in the Shandong province which authorities were preparing to shoot down, according to SCMP.
China’s Foreign Ministry says that since last year US high-altitude balloons flew over Chinese airspace without their permission on over 10 occasions.
Taiwan has observed dozens of Chinese military balloon flights in its airspace in recent years, according to FT.
UK is to launch a security review related to China’s spy balloons, according to The Telegraph
China is reportedly contemplating tripling its stockpile of nuclear warheads to 900 by 2035, according to sources cited by Japan Times.

CRYPTO

Stablecoin issuer Paxos has been directed to stop minting Binance Coin (BUSD) by the US SEC; following on from WSJ reporting over the weekend that US SEC intends to sue stablecoin issuer Paxos, which is behind the Pax Dollar (USDP) and Binance USD (BUSD) tokens, over the latter stablecoin.
India’s Finance Minister said the G20 is exploring collectively regulating cryptocurrencies, according to Reuters.
Binance and TRON reached an agreement in which Binance will reduce transaction fees on the Tron network with withdrawal frees returned to previous levels, according to Reuters.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks began the week mostly subdued as geopolitical tensions lingered after the US shot down a fourth flying object and with markets bracing for Tuesday’s US CPI data, while the region also digested earnings releases and news that Japan’s government is likely to nominate academic and former BoJ member Ueda to head the central bank.
ASX 200 was lacklustre with earnings in focus and the Consumer Discretionary sector was pressured alongside a more than 20% drop in Star Entertainment shares after it flagged an impairment charge of up to AUD 1.6bln.
Nikkei 225 underperformed as participants pondered over the future of the BoJ with the government likely to nominate Ueda as the next central bank chief after dovish continuation candidate and BoJ’s QE policy architect Amamiya was said to turn down the role.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong pressured early on by weakness in property and tech, while the mainland was kept afloat after China’s recent loans and aggregate financing data topped forecasts with New Yuan Loans at a record high for January.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

PBoC and CBIRC published rules on the risk classification of banks’ financial assets which will take effect on July 1st, with the tightened management regulations aimed at assessing banks’ credit risks more accurately, reflecting lenders’ real asset quality, according to Reuters.
Japan’s Upper House of Parliament is to hold confirmation hearings on the government’s nominations for the BoJ Governor and Deputy Governors on February 27th, according to sources cited by Reuters.
BoJ’s expected next chief Ueda is likely to allow the data to guide the exit timing, according to Tetsuya Inoue who was Ueda’s former staff secretary during his time as a BoJ board member, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Ministry says senior diplomat Wang Yi will visit France, Italy, Russia and Hungary this month and attend the Munich Security Conference.

DATA RECAP

Singapore GDP QQ (Q4) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.8%); YY (Q4) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.2%)

1.c FRIDAY/ THURSDAY NIGHT

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/

What took them so long to figure out that you need nuclear power

(Fredly/EpochTimes)

Japan’s Government Adopts Nuclear Energy Policy In Major Turnaround Amid Energy Crisis

SATURDAY, FEB 11, 2023 – 10:45 PM

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Japan’s government on Feb. 10 adopted a policy seeking to maximize the use of nuclear power in a bid to stabilize the country’s energy supply amid soaring energy costs fueled by the prolonged war in Ukraine.

The new policy marks a major turnaround from Japan’s previous policy of reducing its reliance on nuclear energy and shutting down most of its nuclear reactors in the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

Under the new policy, the government will set up a final disposal site for the proper disposal of radioactive waste generated during nuclear energy production. It also calls for the development of advanced reactors.

In addition, it will allow extending the lifespans of nuclear reactors beyond the current maximum of 60 years and replacing aging nuclear reactors with new ones to ensure a stable power supply.

The government also aims to issue green transformation bonds to raise 20 trillion yen ($15.789 billion) to procure funds for decarbonization projects, Kyodo News reported.

The plan includes a target of raising about 150 trillion won ($118.35 billion) in public and private investments over the next 10 years for such projects.

Japan had only allowed 10 of the 33 operable nuclear reactors to restart after the Fukushima nuclear disaster. But rising energy prices, along with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and power outages during the summer and winter pushed the government to revive some nuclear plants.

The stark policy turnaround comes after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in August last year that Japan would look at developing next-generation reactors and ordered the industry ministry to set up a policy plan to widen the use of nuclear energy.

“In order to overcome our imminent crisis of a power supply crunch, we must take our utmost steps to mobilize all possible policies in the coming years and prepare for any emergency,” Kishida said.

On June 27, 2022, the government issued a warning about the tight power supply as Japan endured an extreme heat wave. It also issued an energy warning in March 2022 due to cold weather and power plant outages caused by an earthquake near Fukushima Prefecture.

South Korea’s Nuclear Energy Plan

Governments across Europe and Asia are also extending the life of their aging nuclear fleets, restarting reactors, and dusting off plans to resume projects shelved after the Fukushima disaster.

South Korea’s nuclear power reactor under construction at the time—Shin-Kori 3 and 4 called APR-1400—in Gori near the southern port of Busan, on Feb. 5, 2013. (Jun Yeon-Je/AFP via Getty Images)

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has reversed the previous administration’s plan to phase out nuclear energy and pledged to boost investment in the industry and revive its status as a key exporter of safe reactors.

“If the people who were pushing the nuclear phaseout had actually seen the industrial ecosystem for themselves, I doubt they could have made that decision,” he was quoted as saying by local outlet Hankyoreh.

The government said on July 5, 2022, that it will restart construction on two nuclear reactors at the Shin-Hanul nuclear plant, which had been stalled since 2017 under the previous administration, and continue to operate nuclear energy facilities that are already running.

Restarting construction reactors and exporting nuclear power are part of the South Korean Energy Ministry’s plan to achieve the nation’s policy goals of ensuring energy security and attaining “carbon-neutral goals” amid global energy supply chain pressures.

Yoon’s administration also plans to increase the contribution of nuclear power in the country’s energy mix to 30 percent or more by 2030.

Nuclear power currently makes up roughly 27 percent of the country’s energy mix. According to the World Nuclear Association, South Korea currently has 25 nuclear reactors in operation. It also constructed four nuclear reactors in Barakah, the United Arab Emirates.

end

3c CHINA /

CHINA

look who is talking!

(zerohedge)

China Says Proposed Bans On US Property Purchases Violate Market Rules

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 06:55 AM

China’s foreign ministry has cried foul over proposals in Florida and Texas to ban Chinese citizens in the United States from buying property – saying that it violates the principles of market economy and international trade rules.

“Generalizing the concept of national security and politicising economic, trade and investment issues violate the rules of market economy and international trade rules,” said spokesperson Mao Ning during a Friday press briefing.

In addition to Texas and Florida, Arkansas and several other states are considering similar legislation, Reuters reports.

“I want to stress that China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial in nature. Over the years, Chinese enterprises have invested in the United States and made important contributions to promoting domestic employment and economic development in the United States,” said Mao.

According to a report last July, Chinese investors spent a record $6.1 billion on homes in 2001 – primarily in California and Florida, the National Association of Realtors reported.

The comments also come days after a North Dakota city council voted unanimously to block a Chinese company’s proposed corn mill project over national security concerns raised by the US Air Force.

As the Epoch Times reports,

The public in attendance cheered and chanted “USA!” when the Grand Forks City Council voted unanimously 5–0 to terminate the proposal by Fufeng Group, a large Chinese agribusiness with strong ties to the Chinese Communist Party.

The proposed mill was intended to be built on 300 acres of land owned by Fufeng Group, which is only 12 miles from a military base that houses top-secret drone technology.

Grand Forks Mayor Brandon Bochenski read out the motion, stating that the council’s decision to block the proposed mill was prompted by a letter (pdf) from the Air Force, sent to Sens. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) and John Hoeven (R-N.D.) on Jan. 27, stating that the project “presents a significant threat to national security with both near- and long-term risks of significant impacts to our operations in the area.”

Bochenski said the city determined that certain conditions of the company’s development agreement with the city “cannot be satisfied” and that certain representations and warranties were incorrect, and he directed the city attorney to “take all appropriate actions available and in favor of the city” under the development agreement.

Prior to the vote, Councilwoman Rebecca Osowski acknowledged the concerns raised by citizens about Fufeng’s proposal and thanked them for their support.

“I guess I will say it. Citizens, you were right, and thank you,” Osowski said to applause from members of the public in attendance. “As a citizen of Grand Forks, thank you very much.”

She also urged the city council to “look at what has been done and work together to make things right.”Airmen assigned to the 319th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron from Grand Forks Air Force Base, N.D., perform a maintenance check on a drone on June 6, 2022. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Ashley Richards)

National Security Concerns

The city of Grand Forks approved the Fufeng project in November 2021, and the development agreement was signed in July 2022.

That same month, Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Hoeven, and Cramer raised their concerns in a letter (pdf) to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about the Fufeng Group’s operations impacts in the area.

They said its proximity to the base “led to concern that Fufeng operations could provide cover for PRC surveillance or interference with the missions located at that installation, given Fufeng Group’s reported ties to the Chinese Communist Party.”

The senators requested a full review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a federal panel responsible for evaluating foreign acquisitions for potential national security risks.

END

CHINA/USA//BALLONS

Balloon wars at its finest!!

(zerohedge)

‘Balloon Wars’: White House Blasts “False” China Accusation Of US Balloons Repeatedly Breaching Airspace

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 08:25 AM

China has gone on the offensive with its rhetoric in regard to the multiple balloons or else ‘unidentified objects’ reported shot down by the US military in the last days over North America. China has been under pressure to respond for more than a week now, as the Chinese ‘spy’ balloon saga has pervaded international headlines.

Its foreign ministry on Monday decried US hypocrisy in asserting that the United States breached Chinese airspace without permission at least 10 times with high-altitude balloons since early 2022. This as Beijing officials have suggested they are currently tracking more.Associated Press

“It is nothing rare for U.S. balloons to illegally enter other countries’ airspace,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters in a daily briefing. “The U.S. should first reflect upon itself and change course instead of smearing other countries.”

Wang was addressing Sunday reports out of China that officials had monitored and were preparing to shootdown an unknown object near a northern port city.

“The Qingdao Marine Development Bureau sent a message to fishing boats that an unidentified flying object was detected over waters near Rizhao and authorities were preparing to be able to shoot it down, Shanghai-based news outlet The Paper reported on Sunday,” South China Morning Post writes.

However, despite the alarmist announcement, which seemed a mirror image of Washington’s highlighting the latest ‘balloon threats’ over the American continent, details out of Beijing regarding what it says it’s monitoring remain scant:

Wang did not provide further details about the alleged incursions or say whether the balloons appeared to be military in nature or used for spying purposes. He said China reserves the right to use “any necessary means” to deal with such situations.

Presumably this means China’s military could soon go on a shooting spree, taking out any potential foreign balloons over or near its airspace.

The Biden administration was quick to respond hours after the allegations from Beijing, with National Security Spokesperson Adrienne Watson saying the following:

Any claim that the US government operates surveillance balloons over the PRC is false. It is China that has a high-altitude surveillance balloon program for intelligence collection, that it has used to violate the sovereignty of the US and over 40 countries across 5 continents.

Given the intensifying rhetoric, which has served to bring US-China relations to yet another new recent low, will this go down in history as the bizarre ‘balloon war’ of 2023?

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/USA/UKRAINE/SEYMOUR HERCH)

very important…

Russia’s response to S. Hersh revelations: If negotiations fail, B. Putin will give 72 hours before using nuclear weapons – WarNews247

Sadly, i have been writing that we are coming to a near death moment like the one that occurred with the Cuban Crisis during the Kennedy era. I still remember our teacher explaining what might happen if agreement was not reached. Sadly, there is no Kennedy in Washington today. The class of folks there was undressed by Seymour Hersh this past week for all to see.
This attached writing should be a wake up call for all of us to realize that unless there a change of direction taken we are headed to an initial nuclear exchange. Perhaps this is needed to test the resolve of people to die before stepping back from the abyss, finding common sense.
If we actually get to point where Russia gives 72 hours notice, know that this is kindness, because the current fools in DC would not give any. And let me be very clear, the West has zero ability to stop Mach9+ or Mach20 missiles. Yesterday, there was a protest in Moscow calling on the Kremlin to nuke Washington; Russians are understanding that a state of War does exist and it is their soldiers dying as this is attack on Russia to break up Russia into pieces. This attempt is a delusional fantasy of Neocons that will never happen. Whether it takes nukes to drill common sense into them remains to be seen. And it is clearly a failure of common sense to have allowed this crowd into positions of power and influence. And a good broom is called for, but who will sweep?
Be wary of the April/May period as this will escalate into a crescendo. There are other factors in play here from events occurring within the Global South.

https://warnews247.gr/apantisi-rosias-stis-apokalypseis-s-chers-an-oi-diapragmatefseis-apotychoun-o-v-poutin-tha-dosei-prothesmia-72-ores-prin-tin-chrisi-pyrinikon-oplon/

end

A MUST READ…..

Perhaps it is the way Hersh describes but we must not forget Liz Truss‘S infamous twit “it is done” because there is more to story than Hersh wrote.
None the less it has always pointed towards America as the sponsor with willing servants.
We very quickly are losing semblance of global order and nations lose trust in one another, especially the big wolfs of hegemony like America, China, Russia and lessor actors like India and Iran etc. Trade and commerce will become much more complicated to navigate and unrest will accompany this.

(Pepe Escobar)

The War of Terror of a Rogue Superpower: Cui Bono?

Pepe Escobar

February 10, 2023

When it comes to the Global South, what the Hersh report imprints is Rogue Superpower, in giant blood red letters, as state sponsor of terrorism.

Everyone with a brain already knew the Empire did it. Now Seymour Hersh’s bombshell report not only details how Nord Stream 1 and 2 were attacked, but also names names: from the toxic Straussian neoliberal-con trio Sullivan, Blinken and Nuland all the way to the Teleprompter Reader-in-Chief.

Arguably the most incandescent nugget in Hersh’s narrative is to point ultimate responsibility directly at the White House. The CIA, for its part, gets away with it. The whole report may be read as the framing of a scapegoat. A very fragile, shoddy scapegoat – what with those classified documents in the garage, the endless stares into the void, the cornucopia of incomprehensible mumbling, and of course the whole, ghastly, years-long family corruption carousel in and around Ukraine, still to be completely unveiled.

Hersh’s report happened to pop up immediately after the deadly earthquakes in Turkey/Syria. This is an investigative journalism earthquake in itself, straddling over fault lines and revealing countless open air fissures, nuggets of truth gasping for air amidst the rubble.

But is that all there is? Does the narrative hold from start to finish? Yes and no. First of all, why now? This is a leak – essentially from one Deep State insider, Hersh’s key source. This 21st century “Deep Throat” remix may be appalled at the toxicity of the system, but at the same time he knows that whatever he says, there will be no consequences.

Cowardly Berlin – ignoring the nuts and bolts of the scheme all along – will not even squeak. After all the Green gang has been ecstatic, because the terror attack has thoroughly advanced their medieval de-industrialization agenda. In parallel, as an extra bonus, all the other European vassals receive further confirmation this is the fate that awaits them if they don’t follow His Master’s Voice.

Hersh’s narrative frames the Norwegians as the essential accessory to terror. Hardly surprising: NATO’s Jens “Peace is War” Stoltenberg has been a CIA asset for perhaps half a century. And Oslo of course had its own motives to be part of the deal; to collect loads of extra cash selling whatever spare energy it had for desperate European customers.

A little narrative problem is that Norway, unlike the U.S. Navy, still does not have any operational P-8 Poseidon. What was clear at the time is that an American P-8 was commuting back and forth – with mid-air refueling – from the U.S. to Bornholm island.

A positive screamer is that Hersh – rather, his key source – had the MI6 completely vanish from the narrative. SVR, Russian intel, had focused like a laser on MI6 at the time, as well as the Poles. What still cements the narrative is that the combo behind “Biden” provided the planning, the intel and coordinated the logistics, while the final act – in this case a sonar buoy detonating the C4 explosives – may have been perpetrated by the Norwegian vassals.

The problem is the buoy may have been dropped by an American P-8. And there’s no explanation of why one of the sections of Nord Stream 2 escaped intact.

Hersh’s modus operandi is legendary. From the perspective of a foreign correspondent on the ground since the mid-1990s, from the U.S. and NATOstan to all corners of Eurasia, it’s easy for someone like me to understand how he uses anonymous sources and how he accesses – and protects – his extensive list of contacts: trust works both ways. His track record is absolutely unrivalled.

But of course the possibility remains: what if he is being played? Is this no more than a limited hangout? After all, the narrative oscillates wildly between minute detail and quite a few dead ends, constantly featuring a huge paper trail and too many people in the loop – which implies exaggerated risk. The CIA hesitating too much to go for the kill is a certified red alert throughout the narrative – especially when we know that the ideal underwater actors for such an op would have come from the CIA Special Activities Division, and not the U.S. Navy.

What will Russia do?

Arguably the whole planet is thinking what will be the Russian response.

Surveying the chessboard, what the Kremlin and the Security Council see is Merkel confessing Minsk 2 was merely a ruse; the imperial attack on the Nord Streams (they got the picture, but might not have all the insider details provided by Hersh’s source); former Israeli PM Bennett on the record detailing how the Anglo-Americans killed the Ukraine peace process which was on track in Istanbul last year.

So it’s no wonder that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has made it clear that when it comes to nuclear negotiations with the Americans, any proposed gestures of goodwill are “unjustified, untimely and uncalled for.”

The Ministry, on purpose, and somewhat ominously, was very vague on a key issue: “strategic nuclear forces objects” that have been attacked by Kiev – helped by the Americans. These attacks may have involved “military-technical and information-intelligence” aspects.

When it comes to the Global South, what the Hersh report imprints is Rogue Superpower, in giant blood red letters, as state sponsor of terrorism: the ritual burial – at the bottom of the Baltic Sea – of international law, and even the Empire’s tawdry ersatz, the “rules-based international order”.

It will take some time to fully identify which Deep State faction may have used Hersh to promote its agenda. Of course he’s aware of it – but that would never have been enough to keep him away from researching a bombshell (three months of hard work). The U.S. mainstream media will do everything to suppress, censor, demean and ignore his report; but what matters is that across the Global South it is already spreading like wildfire.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Lavrov has gone totally unplugged, much like Medvedev, denouncing how the U.S. has “unleashed a total hybrid war” against Russia, with both nuclear powers now on a path of direct confrontation. And as Washington has declared the “strategic defeat” of Russia as its goal and turned bilateral relations into a ball of fire, there can be no “business as usual” anymore.

The Russian “response” – even before Hersh’s report – has been on another level entirely; advanced de-dollarization across the spectrum, from the EAEU to BRICS and beyond; and total reorientation of trade towards Eurasia and other parts of the Global South. Russia is establishing firm conditions for further stability, already foreseeing the inevitable: the time to frontally deal with NATO.

As kinetic responses go, facts on the battleground show Russia further crushing the American/NATO proxy army in full Strategic Ambiguity mode. The terror attack on the Nord Streams of course will always be lurking in the background. There will be blowback. But that will be at a time, manner and place of Russia’s choosing.

END

IRAN/RUSSIA

How these two nations are rushing to create their stable coin which of course will by-pass the USA dollar hegemony loaded with its sanctions

(Pepe Escobar)

Escobar: The Big Stiff – Russia-Iran Dump The Dollar And Bust US Sanctions

FRIDAY, FEB 10, 2023 – 11:00 PM

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

News of Russian banks connecting to Iran’s financial messaging system strengthens the resistance against US-imposed sanctions on both countries and accelerates global de-dollarization.

The agreement between the Central Banks of Russia and Iran formally signed on 29 January connecting their interbank transfer systems is a game-changer in more ways than one.

Technically, from now on 52 Iranian banks already using SEPAM, Iran’s interbank telecom system, are connecting with 106 banks using SPFS, Russia’s equivalent to the western banking messaging system SWIFT.

Less than a week before the deal, State Duma Chairman Vyachslav Volodin was in Tehran overseeing the last-minute details, part of a meeting of the Russia-Iran Inter-Parliamentary Commission on Cooperation: he was adamant both nations should quickly increase trade in their own currencies.

Ruble-rial trade

Confirming that the share of ruble and rial in mutual settlements already exceeds 60 percent, Volodin ratified the success of “joint use of the Mir and Shetab national payment systems.” Not only does this bypass western sanctions, but it is able to “solve issues related to mutually beneficial cooperation, and increasing trade.”

It is quite possible that the ruble will eventually become the main currency in bilateral trade, according to Iran’s ambassador in Moscow, Kazem Jalali: “Now more than 40 percent of trade between our countries is in rubles.”

Jalali also confirmed, crucially, that Tehran is in favor of the ruble as the main currency in all regional integration mechanisms. He was referring particularly to the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), with which Iran is clinching a free trade deal.

The SEPAM-SPFS agreement starts with a pilot program supervised by Iran’s Shahr Bank and Russia’s VTB Bank. Other lenders will step in once the pilot program gets rid of any possible bugs.

The key advantage is that SEPAM and SPFS are immune to the US and western sanctions ruthlessly imposed on Tehran and Moscow. Once the full deal is up and running, all Iranian and Russian banks can be interconnected.

It is no wonder the Global South is paying very close attention. This is likely to become a landmark case in bypassing Belgium-based SWIFT – which is essentially controlled by Washington, and on a minor scale, the EU. The success of SEPAM-SPFS will certainly encourage other bilateral or even multilateral deals between states.

It’s all about the INSTC

The Central Banks of Iran and Russia are also working to establish a stable coin for foreign trade, replacing the US dollar, the ruble, and the rial. This would be a digital currency backed by gold, to be used mostly in the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of Astrakhan, in the Caspian Sea, already very busy moving plenty of Iranian cargo.

Astrakhan happens to be the key Russian hub of the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), a vast network of ship, rail, and road routes which will drastically increase trade from Russia – but also parts of Europe – across Iran to West Asia and South Asia, and vice-versa.

And that reflects the full geoconomic dimension of the SEPAM-SPFS deal. The Russian Central Bank moved early to set up SPFS in 2014, when Washington began threatening Moscow with expulsion from SWIFT. Merging it with the Iranian SEPAM opens up a whole new horizon, especially given Iran’s ratification as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and now a leading candidate to join the extended BRICS+ club.

Already three months before the SEPAM-SPFS agreement, the Russian Trade Representative in Iran, Rustam Zhiganshin, was hinting that the decision “to create an analog of the SWIFT system” was a done deal.

Tehran had been preparing the infrastructure to join Russia’s Mir payment system since last summer. But after Moscow was hit with extremely harsh western sanctions and Russian banks were cut off from SWIFT, Tehran and Moscow decided, strategically, to focus on creating their own non-SWIFT for cross-border payments.

All that relates to the immensely strategic geoeconomic role of the INSTC, which is a much cheaper and faster trade corridor than the old Suez Canal route.

Russia is Iran’s largest foreign investor

Moreover, Russia has become Iran’s largest foreign investor, according to Iranian Deputy Finance Minister Ali Fekri: this includes “$2.7 billion worth of investment to two petroleum projects in Iran’s western province of Ilam in the past 15 months.” That’s about 45 percent of the total foreign investment in Iran over the October 2021 – January 2023 period.

Of course the whole process is in its initial stages – as Russia-Iran bilateral trade amounts to only US$3 billion annually. But a boom is inevitable, due to the accumulated effect of SEPAM-SPFS, INSTC, and EAEU interactions, and especially further moves to develop Iran’s energy capacity, logistics, and transport networks, via the INSTC.

Russian projects in Iran are multi-faceted: energy, railways, auto manufacturing, and agriculture. In parallel, Iran supplies Russia with food and automotive products.

Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, is fond of reminding anyone that Russia and Iran “play complementary roles in global energy and cargo transit.” The Iran-EAEU free agreement (FTA) is nearly finalized – including zero tariffs for over 7,500 commodities.

In 2022, the EAEU traded more than $800 billion worth of goods. Iran’s full access to the EAEU will be inestimable in terms of providing a market gateway to large swathes of Eurasia – and bypassing US sanctions as a sweet perk. A realistic projection is that Tehran can expect $15 billion annual trade with the five members of the EAEU in five years, as soon as Iran becomes the sixth member.

The legacy of Samarkand

Everything we are tracking now is in many ways a direct consequence of the SCO summit in Samarkand last September, when Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, in person, placed their bet on strengthening the multipolar world as Iran signed a memorandum to join the SCO.

Putin’s private talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Samarkand were all about deep strategy.

The INSTC is absolutely crucial in this overall equation. Both Russia and Iran are investing at least $25 billion to boost its capabilities.

Ships sailing the Don and Volga Rivers have always traded energy and agricultural commodities. Now Iran’s Maritime News Agency has confirmed that Russia will grant their ships the right of passage along the inland waterways on the Don and Volga.

Meanwhile, Iran is already established as the third largest importer of Russian grain. From now on, trade on turbines, polymers, medical supplies, and automotive parts will be on a roll.

Tehran and Moscow have signed a contract to build a large cargo vessel for Iran to be used at the Caspian port of Solyanka. And RZD logistics, a subsidiary of Russian railway RZD, operates container cargo trains regularly from Moscow to Iran. The Russian Journal for Economics predicts that just the freight traffic on INTSC could reach 25 million tons by 2030 – no less than a 20-fold increase compared to 2022.

Inside Iran, new terminals are nearly ready for cargo to be rolled off ships to railroads crisscrossing the country from the Caspian to the Persian Gulf. Sergey Katrin, head of Russia’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry, is confident that once the FTA with the EAEU is on, bilateral trade can soon reach $40 billion a year.

Tehran’s plans are extremely ambitious, inserted in an “Eastern Axis” framework that privileges regional states Russia, China, India, and Central Asia.

Geostrategically and geoeconomically, that implies a seamless interconnection of INSTC, EAEU, SCO, and BRICS+. And all of this is coordinated by the one Quad that really matters: Russia, China, India, and Iran.

Of course there will be problems. The intractable Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict might be able to derail the INSTC: but note that Russia-Iran connections via the Caspian can easily bypass Baku if the need arises.

BRICS+ will cement the dollar’s descent

Apart from Russia and Iran, Russia and China have also been trying to interface their banking messaging systems for years now. The Chinese CBIBPS (Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payments System) is considered top class. The problem is that Washington has directly threatened to expel Chinese banks from SWIFT if they interconnect with Russian banks.

The success of SEPAM-SPFS may allow Beijing to go for broke – especially now, after the extremely harsh semiconductor war and the appalling balloon farce. In terms of sovereignty, it is clear that China will not accept US restrictions on how to move its own funds.

In parallel, the BRICS in 2023 will delve deeper into developing their mutual financial payments system and their own reserve currency. There are no less than 13 confirmed candidates eager to join BRICS+ – including Asian middle powers like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia.

All eyes will be on whether – and how – the $30 trillion-plus indebted US will threaten to expel BRICS+ from SWIFT.

It’s enlightening to remember that Russia’s debt to GDP ratio stands at only 17 percent. China’s is 77 percent. The current BRICS without Russia are at 78 percent. BRICS+ including Russia may average only 55 percent. Strong productivity ahead will come from a BRICS+ supported by a gold and/or commodities-backed currency and a different payment system that bypasses the US dollar. Strong productivity definitely will not come from the collective west whose economies are entering recessionary times.

Amid so many intertwined developments, and so many challenges, one thing is certain. The SEPAM-SPFS deal between Russia and Iran may be just the first sign of the tectonic plates movement in global banking and payment systems.

Welcome to one, two, one thousand payment messaging systems. And welcome to their unification in a global network. Of course that will take time. But this high-speed financial train has already left the station.

END

RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/

Ukrainians withdraw from Bakhmut. The north guard has now been knocked out

The Ukrainians “decorate” Zelensky & withdraw from Bakhmut by all means: the northern guard of the city is knocked out – Chasiv Yar is also lost! – WarNews247

This is reality, it was only a matter of time.
When this is over and open day it will be over, the clowns in Kiev and elsewhere will be cleansed by whatever soldiers are left for their orders to needlessly slaughter soldiers for vanity and for thievery. This is classic in Ukrainian history.
Very sad tale and if others get directly involved it will only pain more innocent people for naught.
The world would be much better off if politicians had teh common sense to allowing rebuilding of nations.

https://warnews247.gr/oi-oukranoi-stolizoun-ton-zelenski-etoimazontai-gia-to-tragiko-finale-apochoroun-me-kathe-tropo-apo-to-bakhmut-chathike-i-voreia-froura-tis-polis/

end

US tells any remaining Americans to get out of Russia now

(zerohedge)

US Tells Any Remaining Americans To Get Out Of Russia Or Face Possible Conscription

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 09:08 AM

Apparently sensing that Russia is about to escalate the war in Ukraine in some dramatic fashion, potentially to involve a new national mobilization effort ahead of a coming Spring offensive, the US Embassy in Moscow has issued an urgent new appeal for any and all Americans still in Russia to depart immediately.

The fresh advisory alert released Sunday warns of “unpredictable consequences” for any US citizen remaining, including being singled out for detention by authorities, as well as possible forced mobilization or conscription.

“Do not travel to Russia due to the unpredictable consequences of the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian military forces, the potential for harassment and the singling out of U.S. citizens for detention by Russian government security officials, the arbitrary enforcement of local law, limited flights into and out of Russia, the Embassy’s limited ability to assist U.S. citizens in Russia, and the possibility of terrorism,” the alert reads.

“U.S. citizens residing or traveling in Russia should depart immediately,” the embassy urged, also at a moment Ukrainian officials have warned of greater Russian military build-up along the border and impending escalation.

“Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals’ U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, subject them to mobilization, prevent their departure from Russia, and/or conscript them,” the statement added.

It comes also not long after the recent high profile release of WNBA star and high profile American citizen Brittney Griner in exchange for convicted arms trafficker Viktor Bout. Washington had for much of the past year condemned her ‘politically motivated’ detention.

“Russian security services may fail to notify the U.S. Embassy of the detention of a U.S. citizen and unreasonably delay U.S. consular assistance,” the embassy said additionally.

Americans and US dual nationals in Russia have been issued repeat warnings since the start of the Feb.2022 invasion that they should leave the country. Given in part that Western sanctions on a now largely isolated Russia have steadily ratcheted up over the last year, hundreds of American companies have also suspended operations in Russia or else pulled out altogether.

end

MIKE WHITNEY/..

Lengthy! but Whitney describes what rally happened and how it was the Ukraine that started the war and not the Russians

(Whitney)

From Robert H to us on this important commentary

We must ask ourselves why people allow such madness to exist. While coverups of ills and like are customary, this is a stretch of reason that risks a global war. And a war the West will lose because America and NATO cannot defeat China and Russia. Perhaps China alone is still possible but Russia will never stand still for that. And if this goes hot Russia will win, although at a brutal cost in lives of its’ own citizens.
Complete stupidity of delusional fools on display

Whitney: Setting The Record Straight – Stuff You Should Know About Ukraine

SATURDAY, FEB 11, 2023 – 07:00 AM

Authored by Mike Whitney,

On February 16, 2022, a full week before Putin sent combat troops into Ukraine, the Ukrainian Army began the heavy bombardment of the area (in east Ukraine) occupied by mainly ethnic Russians.

Officials from the Observer Mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were located in the vicinity at the time and kept a record of the shelling as it took place. What the OSCE discovered was that the bombardment dramatically intensified as the week went on until it reached a peak on February 19, when a total of 2,026 artillery strikes were recorded. Keep in mind, the Ukrainian Army was, in fact, shelling civilian areas along the Line of Contact that were occupied by other Ukrainians.

We want to emphasize that the officials from the OSCE were operating in their professional capacity gathering first-hand evidence of shelling in the area. What their data shows is that Ukrainian Forces were bombing and killing their own people. This has all been documented and has not been challenged.

So, the question we must all ask ourselves is this: Is the bombardment and slaughter of one’s own people an ‘act of war’?

We think it is. And if we are right, then we must logically assume that the war began before the Russian invasion (which was launched a full week later) We must also assume that Russia’s alleged “unprovoked aggression” was not unprovoked at all but was the appropriate humanitarian response to the deliberate killing of civilians. In order to argue that the Russian invasion was ‘not provoked’, we would have to say that firing over 4,000 artillery shells into towns and neighborhoods where women and children live, is not a provocation? Who will defend that point of view?

No one, because it’s absurd. The killing of civilians in the Donbas was a clear provocation, a provocation that was aimed at goading Russia into a war. And –as we said earlier– the OSCE had monitors on the ground who provided full documentation of the shelling as it took place, which is as close to ironclad, eyewitness testimony as you’re going to get.

This, of course, is a major break with the “official narrative” which identifies Russia as the perpetrator of hostilities. But, as we’ve shown, that simply isn’t the case. The official narrative is wrong. Even so, it might not surprise you to know that most of the mainstream media completely omitted any coverage of the OSCE’s fact-finding activities in east Ukraine. The one exception to was Reuters that published a deliberately opaque account published on February 18 titled “Russia voices alarm over sharp increase of Donbass shelling”. Here’s an excerpt:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced alarm on Friday over a sharp increase in shelling in eastern Ukraine and accused the OSCE special monitoring mission of glossing over what he said were Ukrainian violations of the peace process….

Washington and its allies have raised fears that the upsurge in violence in the Donbass could form part of a Russian pretext to invade Ukraine. Tensions are already high over a Russian military buildup to the north, east and south of Ukraine.

“We are very concerned by the reports of recent days – yesterday and the day before there was a sharp increase in shelling using weapons that are prohibited under the Minsk agreements,” Lavrov said, referring to peace accords aimed at ending the conflict. “So far we are seeing the special monitoring mission is doing its best to smooth over all questions that point to the blame of Ukraine’s armed forces,” he told a news conference.

Ukraine’s military on Friday denied violating the Minsk peace process and accused Moscow of waging an information war to say that Kyiv was shelling civilians, allegations it said were lies and designed to provoke it.” (Russia voices alarm over sharp increase of Donbass shelling, Reuters)

Notice the clever way that Reuters frames its coverage so that the claims of the Ukrainian military are given as much credibility as the claims of the Russian Foreign Minister. What Reuters fails to point out is that the OSCE’s report verifies Lavrov’s version of events while disproving the claims of the Ukrainians. It is the job of a journalist to make the distinction between fact and fiction but, once again, we see how agenda-driven news is not meant to inform but to mislead.

Quote: Larry C. Johnson, A Son of a New Revolution

The point we are trying to make is simple: The war in Ukraine was not launched by a tyrannical Russian leader (Putin) bent on rebuilding the Soviet Empire. That narrative is a fraud that was cobbled together by neocon spin-meisters trying to build public support for a war with Russia. The facts I am presenting here can be identified on a map where the actual explosions took place and were then recorded by officials whose job was to fulfill that very task. Can you see the difference between the two? In one case, the storyline rests on speculation, conjecture and psychobabble; while in the other, the storyline is linked to actual events that took place on the ground and were catalogued by trained professionals in the field. In which version of events do you have more confidence?

Bottom line: Russia did not start the war in Ukraine. That is a fake narrative. The responsibility lies with the Ukrainian Army and their leaders in Kiev.

And here’s something else that is typically excluded in the media’s selective coverage. Before Putin sent his tanks across the border into Ukraine, he invoked United Nations Article 51 which provides a legal justification for military intervention. Of course, the United States has done this numerous times to provide a fig leaf of legitimacy to its numerous military interventions. But, in this case, you can see where the so-called Responsibility To Protect (R2P) could actually be justified, after all, by most estimates, the Ukrainian army has killed over 14,000 ethnic Russians since the US-backed coup 8 years ago. If ever there was a situation in which a defensive military operation could be justified, this was it. But that still doesn’t fully explain why Putin invoked UN Article 51. For that, we turn to former weapons inspector Scott Ritter, who explained it like this:

Russian President Vladimir Putin, citing Article 51 as his authority, ordered what he called a ‘special military operation’….
under Article 51, there can be no doubt as to the legitimacy of Russia’s contention that the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass had been subjected to a brutal eight-year-long bombardment that had killed thousands of people.… Moreover, Russia claims to have documentary proof that the Ukrainian Army was preparing for a massive military incursion into the Donbass which was pre-empted by the Russian-led ‘special military operation.’ [OSCE figures show an increase of government shelling of the area in the days before Russia moved in.]

..The bottom line is that Russia has set forth a cognizable claim under the doctrine of anticipatory collective self-defense, devised originally by the US and NATO, as it applies to Article 51 which is predicated on fact, not fiction.

While it might be in vogue for people, organizations, and governments in the West to embrace the knee-jerk conclusion that Russia’s military intervention constitutes a wanton violation of the United Nations Charter and, as such, constitutes an illegal war of aggression, the uncomfortable truth is that, of all the claims made regarding the legality of pre-emption under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine is on solid legal ground. (“Russia, Ukraine & the Law of War: Crime of Aggression”, Consortium News)

Here’s a bit more background from an article by foreign policy analyst Danial Kovalik:

One must begin this discussion by accepting the fact that there was already a war happening in Ukraine for the eight years preceding the Russian military incursion in February 2022. And, this war by the government in Kiev… claimed the lives of around 14,000 people, many of them children, and displaced around 1.5 million more … The government in Kiev, and especially its neo-Nazi battalions, carried out attacks against these peoples … precisely because of their ethnicity. ..

While the UN Charter prohibits unilateral acts of war, it also provides, in Article 51, that ‘nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense… ‘ And this right of self-defense has been interpreted to permit countries to respond, not only to actual armed attacks, but also to the threat of imminent attack.

In light of the above, it is my assessment.. that Russia had a right to act in its own self-defense by intervening in Ukraine, which had become a proxy of the US and NATO for an assault – not only on Russian ethnics within Ukraine – but also upon Russia itself. (“Why Russia’s intervention in Ukraine is legal under international law”, RT)

So, has anyone in the western media reported on the fact that Putin invoked UN Article 51 before he launched the Special Military Operation?

No, they haven’t, because to do so, would be an admission that Putin’s military operation complies with international law. Instead, the media continues to spread the fiction that ‘Hitler-Putin is trying to rebuild the Soviet empire’, a claim for which there is not a scintilla of evidence. Keep in mind, Putin’s operation does not involve the toppling of a foreign government to install a Moscow-backed stooge, or the arming and training a foreign military that will be used as proxies to fight a geopolitical rival, or the stuffing a country with state-of-the-art weaponry to achieve his own narrow strategic objectives, or perpetrating terrorist acts of industrial sabotage (Nord-Stream 2) to prevent the economic integration of Asia and Europe. No, Putin hasn’t engaged in any of these things. But Washington certainly has, because Washington isn’t constrained by international law. In Washington’s eyes, international law is merely an inconvenience that is dismissively shrugged off whenever unilateral action is required. But Putin is not nearly as cavalier about such matters, in fact, he has a long history of playing by the rules because he believes the rules help to strengthen everyone’s security. And, he’s right; they do.

And that’s why he invoked Article 51 before he sent the troops to help the people in the Donbas. He felt he had a moral obligation to lend them his assistance but wanted his actions to comply with international law. We think he achieved both.

Here’s something else you will never see in the western media. You’ll never see the actual text of Putin’s security demands that were made a full two months before the war broke out. And, the reason you won’t see them, is because his demands were legitimate, reasonable and necessary. All Putin wanted was basic assurances that NATO was not planning to put its bases, armies and missile sites on Russia’s border. In other words, he was doing the same thing that all responsible leaders do to defend the safety and security of their own people.

Here are a few critical excerpts from the text of Putin’s proposal to the US and NATO:

Article 1

The Parties shall cooperate on the basis of principles of indivisible, equal and undiminished security and to these ends:

shall not undertake actions nor participate in or support activities that affect the security of the other Party;
shall not implement security measures adopted by each Party individually or in the framework of an international organization, military alliance or coalition that could undermine core security interests of the other Party.

Article 3

The Parties shall not use the territories of other States with a view to preparing or carrying out an armed attack against the other Party or other actions affecting core security interests of the other Party.

Article 4

The United States of America shall undertake to prevent further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and deny accession to the Alliance to the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

The United States of America shall not establish military bases in the territory of the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics that are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.

Article 5

The Parties shall refrain from deploying their armed forces and armaments, including in the framework of international organizations, military alliances or coalitions, in the areas where such deployment could be perceived by the other Party as a threat to its national security, with the exception of such deployment within the national territories of the Parties.

The Parties shall refrain from flying heavy bombers equipped for nuclear or non-nuclear armaments or deploying surface warships of any type, including in the framework of international organizations, military alliances or coalitions, in the areas outside national airspace and national territorial waters respectively, from where they can attack targets in the territory of the other Party.

The Parties shall maintain dialogue and cooperate to improve mechanisms to prevent dangerous military activities on and over the high seas, including agreeing on the maximum approach distance between warships and aircraft.

Article 6

The Parties shall undertake not to deploy ground-launched intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles outside their national territories, as well as in the areas of their national territories, from which such weapons can attack targets in the national territory of the other Party.

Article 7

The Parties shall refrain from deploying nuclear weapons outside their national territories and return such weapons already deployed outside their national territories at the time of the entry into force of the Treaty to their national territories. The Parties shall eliminate all existing infrastructure for deployment of nuclear weapons outside their national territories.

The Parties shall not train military and civilian personnel from non-nuclear countries to use nuclear weapons. The Parties shall not conduct exercises or training for general-purpose forces, that include scenarios involving the use of nuclear weapons.” (“To Make Sense of War”, Israel Shamir, Unz Review)

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what Putin was worried about. He was worried about NATO expansion and, in particular, the emergence of a hostile military alliance backed by Washington-groomed Nazis occupying territory on his western flank. Was that unreasonable of him? Should he have embraced these US-backed Russophobes and allowed them to place their missiles on his border? Would that have been the prudent thing to do?

So, what can we deduce from Putin’s list of demands?

First, we can deduce that he is not trying to reconstruct the Soviet empire as the MSM relentlessly insists. The list focuses exclusively on security-related demands, nothing else.

Second, it proves that the war could have easily been avoided had Zelensky simply maintained the status quo and formally announced that Ukraine would remain neutral. In fact, Zelensky actually agreed to neutrality in negotiations with Moscow in March, but Washington prevented the Ukrainian president from going through with the deal which means that the Biden administration is largely responsible for the ongoing conflict. (RT published an article stating clearly that an agreement had been reached between Russia and Ukraine in March but the deal was intentionally scuttled by the US and UK. Washington wanted a war.)

Third, it shows that Putin is a reasonable leader whose demands should have been eagerly accepted. Was it unreasonable of Putin to ask that “The Parties shall refrain from deploying their armed forces and… military alliances.. in the areas where such deployment could be perceived by the other Party as a threat to its national security”? Was it unreasonable for him the ask that “The Parties shall eliminate all existing infrastructure for deployment of nuclear weapons outside their national territories”?

Where exactly are the “unreasonable demands” that Putin supposedly made?

There aren’t any. Putin made no demands that the US wouldn’t have made if ‘the shoe was on the other foot.’

Fourth, it proves that the war is not a struggle for Ukrainian liberation or democracy. That’s hogwash. It is a war that is aimed at “weakening” Russia and eventually removing Putin from power. Those are the overriding goals. What that means is that Ukrainian soldiers are not dying for their country, they are dying for an elitist dream to expand NATO, crush Russia, encircle China, and extend US hegemony for another century. Ukraine is merely the battlefield on which the Great Power struggle is being fought.

There are number points we are trying to make in this article:

1) Who started the war?
Answer– Ukraine started the war

2) Was the Russian invasion a violation of international law?
Answer– No, the Russian invasion should be approved under United Nations Article 51

3) Could the war have been avoided if Ukraine declared neutrality and met Putin’s reasonable demands?
Answer– Yes, the war could have been avoided

4) The last point deals with the Minsk Treaty and how the dishonesty of western leaders is going to effect the final settlement in Ukraine. I am convinced that neither Washington nor the NATO allies have any idea of how severely international relations have been decimated by the Minsk betrayal. In a world where legally binding agreements can be breezily discarded in the name of political expediency, the only way to settle disputes is through brute force. Did anyone in Germany, France or Washington think about this before they acted? (But, first, some background on Minsk.)

The aim of the Minsk agreement was to end the fighting between the Ukrainian army and ethnic Russians in the Donbas region of Ukraine. It was the responsibility of the four participants in the treaty– Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine– to ensure that both sides followed the terms of the deal. But in December, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in an interview with a German magazine, that there was never any intention of implementing the deal, instead, the plan was to use the time to make Ukraine stronger in order to prepare for a war with Russia. So, clearly, from the very beginning, the United States intended to provoke a war with Russia.

On September 5, 2014, Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia all signed Minsk, but the treaty failed and the fighting resumed. On February 12, 2015, Minsk 2 was signed, but that failed, as well. Please, watch this short segment on You Tube by Amit Sengupta who gives a brief rundown of Minsk and its implications: (I transcribed the piece myself and any mistakes are mine.)

(11:40 minute) “In 2015, Germany and France were supposed to play a neutral role.They were supposed to make Ukraine and Russia follow the rules. But they didn’t do that, and the reason they didn’t do that is what Angela Merkel revealed in her interview on December 7. Merkel said, “The 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give time to Ukraine. It also gave time to become stronger as can be seen today. The Ukraine of 2014 and 2015 is not the modern Ukraine.”

Basically, all three partners of the Minsk Agreement lied and betrayed Russia. Even Putin said, “One day Russia will have to reach an agreement with Ukraine, but Germany and France betrayed Russia, and now they are helping Ukraine with weapons.”… It is a shame that western political leaders engage in negotiations that they do not intend to honor or enforce…(Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has admitted the same as Merkel and Hollande)….Now even Putin has acknowledged that it was a mistake to agree to the Minsk Accords.

He even said that the Donbas problem should have been resolved by force-of-arms at the time. (2015) Russia waited 8 years to recognize Donbas’s independence, and then launched a full-scale attack this year. But then Putin was under the impression that the Minsk Accords–guaranteed by Germany and France and endorsed unanimously by the UN Security Council including the United States– would resolve the crisis and would give the Donbas autonomy while remaining part of Ukraine. Germany and France were supposed to make sure the Minsk accords were implemented from 2015 to 2022. The collective west always knew that war was the only solution. They never wanted peace, they just played along in the name of Minsk agreement. So, you can see, it is a diplomatic “win” for the west……

France and Germany appeased Russia with the Minsk agreement and gave false hopes of a peaceful settlement. But, in reality, they were buying time for Ukraine to build its military. There was never a diplomatic solution; the collective west –which includes the United States, NATO, the European Union and the G-7– fooled Russia into believing there was a diplomatic solution to the Donbas conflict (but) instead, they were preparing Ukraine for a full-fledged war against Russia.

So, either way, this war was meant to happen. There was never a diplomatic solution…. This is what Angela Merkel wanted to convey: “The Cold War never ended”. She was the German Chancellor when the coup took place in Ukraine in 2014 and the Minsk Accords were signed. Therefore her contribution to this duplicitous game along with Germany, France, Ukraine and US– has led to this war. And she very well knows it. But, either way, it is not going to end well for Germany or France whose economies have been badly hurt. Ukraine has been completely destroyed. It has become the Afghanistan of Europe. It is the western political leaders that are guilty of the murder of Ukraine.

As it has been since 2014, the Ukrainian government has been launching vicious military attacks against Russian-speaking Ukrainian civilians in the Donbas region. Thousands of Russian speaking civilians have been killed. Russia should have taken back the territory in 2014 along with Crimea. But, then, Russia fell into the trap of the western countries’ Minsk Agreement. … It is not Russia that started this war, it is the United States that started this war. Ukraine is just a pawn that is supported by the US and the other european governments. And, it is a pity that the Ukrainian government serves the interests of the United States and not the Ukrainian people.” (“Angela Merkel’s revelation about Minsk Agreements | Russia Ukraine war“, Amit Sengupta, You Tube)

There’s no way to overstate the importance of the Minsk betrayal or the impact it’s going to have on the final settlement in Ukraine. When trust is lost, nations can only ensure their security through brute force. What that means is that Russia must expand its perimeter as far as is necessary to ensure that it will remain beyond the enemy’s range of fire. (Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev have already indicated that they plan to do just that.) Second, the new perimeter must be permanently fortified with combat troops and lethal weaponry that are kept on hairtrigger alert. When treaties become vehicles for political opportunism, then nations must accept a permanent state of war. This is the world that Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and the US created by opting to use ‘the cornerstone of international relations’ (Treaties) to advance their own narrow warmongering objectives.

We just wonder if anyone in Washington realizes whet the fu** they’ve done?

//UKRAINE/RUSSIA/

How could this be possible with the billions of dollars spent

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Short On Ammo With Russia Gaining, Despite West’s Billions, Stoltenberg Admits

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 10:30 AM

NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg in a Monday briefing warned that the West is now locked in a race against Russia to get ammunition to the front lines in support of Ukrainian forces. He specifically affirmed that NATO countries are in a “race of logistics” regarding ammo and arms supplies at a crucial moment of intensified fighting. This as “Russia seems to have already launched a large-scale offensive in Ukraine… sending in thousands and thousands more troops,” Stoltenberg explained.

“It is clear that we are in the race of logistics. Key capabilities like ammunition . . . must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield.” He also described dramatically that “A war of attrition becomes a battle of logistics,” while acknowledging that “Yes, we have a challenge. Yes we have a problem . . . but we have a strategy to tackle that.” In some ways, his new words are a belated admission that Russia has already seized the initiative.

According to more from the Financial Times, despite the West already having poured billions in arms and supplies into Ukraine’s military effort over the past year, Ukraine is still being far outgunned:

Ukraine’s ammunition shortages were “acute”, a senior western intelligence official told the Financial Times, adding that the speed of western supplies would be critical to the outcome of Russia’s attempt to regain the initiative in the war.

Kyiv’s forces are estimated to be firing more than 5,000 artillery rounds every day — equal to a smaller European country’s orders in an entire year in peacetime. Russia is estimated to be firing four times that amount each day as it seeks to gain territory in the east of the country and deploy tens of thousands of newly trained conscripts in the war.

Urging more immediate production among NATO allies’ defense sectors, Stoltenberg said, “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles. The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defense industries under strain.”

It was only this past fall that international headlines presented a battlefield picture of a losing Russian side amid a robust West-supported Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east and south. But after Russia’s very clear victory over Soledar, and with the strategic Donetsk region city of Bakhmut also now on the verge of falling to the Russians (having been nearly encircled), those prior mainstream media reports have proven premature.

As for Stoltenberg’s words saying the major Russian offensive has already started, which was long anticipated headed into spring, he said that Moscow has shown itself willing absorb “a very high rate of casualties”. But while taking on “big losses” – the immense pressure being felt by the Ukrainians is evident.

The NATO chief’s comments implicitly acknowledge the war has result in significant setbacks for Western countries’ own defense readiness, given depleting stockpiles at home…

“What Russia lacks in quality, they try to compensate in quantity,” he said, again underscoring the need for more arms and ammo from the Western allies. He said the faster this can be done, the more lives can be saved. He laid out the problem very bluntly and specifically as follows:

Stoltenberg admitted that Nato was facing a “problem” as current waiting times for large-calibre ammunition have grown from 12 to 28 months.

But he still sought to inject some optimism, stressing NATO members are enacting plans to be “on the path that will enable us both to continue to support Ukraine, but also to replenish our own stocks.”

* * *

Related to these “plans” in the works for replenishing stocks, Rabobank has highlighted a new scheme cooking in the background as the West apparently “gets creative” over efforts to alleviate the ammo supply crisis…

The UK Telegraph reports ‘Europe rushes to launch Covid-style plan to ramp up shell production for Ukraine’, noting the ECB “could be used to raise funds to place orders large enough to convince defence firms to increase production.” (As long flagged here as a risk by the way.) It notes, “European governments have backed plans to use the EU’s multibillion-euro fast-tracked coronavirus vaccine scheme as a blueprint to produce the ammunition so desperately needed by Ukraine. A number of the bloc’s leaders told the Ukrainian president they “no longer have much in our warehouses to give” after he handed them weaponry wish-lists of weapons during a visit to Brussels earlier this week… Ukraine is firing an estimated 6,000 artillery rounds every day, according to Western intelligence figures, whereas Russia fires 20,000 a day – the same amount manufactured by European defence producers each month.”
Yet this is also about far more than munitions. Foreign Policy magazine underlines the critique that President Biden’s geostrategy lacks an economic vision that brings allies along, making it more reliant on a US military with inadequate funding despite a $848bn defence budget. Indeed, Bloomberg commentator Noah Smith underlines @ElbridgeColby in saying ‘Europe has to stand against Russia: the US is going to get distracted, and Russia isn’t going to stop.’ That would change lots of things a very great deal.
end

TURKEY

Crazy Footage Shows Strength Of Turkish Earthquake – Created Massive Fault Lines

Shows the sheer extent of damage

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

Two important pieces from EpochTimes and Jeffrey Tucker, of Brownstone

first…

(EpochTimes/Stieber)

Elevated Rate of Facial Paralysis Identified After Pfizer COVID-19 Booster in Elderly: FDA

COVID VACCINE INJURIES

Zachary Stieber

Jan 25 2023

biggersmaller

A nurse prepares the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in Southfield, Mich., on Nov. 5, 2021. (Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images)

0:009:021

An elevated rate of Bell’s palsy, a type of facial paralysis, was identified among elderly people after COVID-19 vaccination with a Pfizer booster shot, U.S. regulators said in a new study.

The “small but statistically significant elevation” was detected after vaccination with Pfizer’s old booster shot, which is no longer available in the United States, researchers with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said in a preprint study.

The elevated rate resulted in an adjusted incidence rate ratio of 1.13 and remained consistent when researchers adjusted for different factors, such as prior COVID-19 infection.

A rate above one shows a possible connection between the vaccine and an adverse event.

A statistically significant elevated rate for Bell’s palsy after vaccination with a Moderna COVID-19 vaccine booster wasn’t detected, although adjustments for certain factors, such as seasonality, did result in statistically significant results.

Bell’s palsy is a paralysis or weakness, typically on one side of the face. While symptoms often improve partially or fully within weeks, some people suffer longer-lasting problems. The cause of the condition is unknown, according to the U.S. National Institutes of Health.

Both messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines can cause side effects, including a form of heart inflammation called myocarditis, U.S. authorities and other experts have acknowledged.

Pfizer and Moderna officials didn’t respond to requests for comment. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said during a recent appearance on CNBC that a Pfizer team constantly reviews and analyzes data and that the team hasn’t seen “a single [safety] signal.”

A safety signal is a sign that a vaccine may cause an adverse event. The FDA detected safety signals for Pfizer’s vaccine in early 2021 and reported an update in a paper in late 2022. The new study, published as a preprint (pdf), outlines a new examination of post-booster issues.

FDA researchers analyzed data from the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which maintains a database that includes vaccination history and adverse events for Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older.A sign for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration outside of the headquarters in White Oak, Md., on July 20, 2020. (Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images)

The Bell’s palsy data was analyzed from Aug. 12, 2021, to May 14, 2022; the rate after vaccination was compared to the rate from before the COVID-19 pandemic.

There were 59 cases of Bell’s palsy identified after vaccination, with 29 being determined not to be an actual case after a medical record review.

Investigators reported four cases of Bell’s palsy in Pfizer’s original trial, with all among vaccinated participants, while 3 of 4 cases of Bell’s palsy in Moderna’s trial were in the vaccinated. Those numbers were 1.5 to three times beyond the background rate in the population. Owing to the trial cases, the FDA stated at the time of authorization that it would “recommend surveillance for cases of Bell’s palsy.”

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, utilizing data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, which it manages with the FDA, identified Bell’s palsy as a safety signal for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines among individuals aged 5 and older. The agency found the incidence after mRNA vaccination much higher than after non-COVID-19 vaccination.

The FDA stated in the Pfizer vaccine’s package insert, which was last updated in July 2022, that “currently available information is insufficient to determine a causal relationship with the vaccine.”

A European study previously found indications that Pfizer’s vaccine was linked with an increased risk of Bell’s palsy. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were the most commonly associated with Bell’s palsy, a review of studies and case reports found.

Increased Risk of Other Events

Government researchers in the new study found an increased rate of acute myocardial infarction, or heart attack, among the elderly after a primary series of Pfizer’s vaccine. But they said the effect lost statistical significance during adjustment.

Another statistically significant elevation in rate was detected after Pfizer’s booster dose after, and not before, adjustment for factors such as the exclusion of cases with prior COVID-19.

No statistically significant elevated risk was detected for Moderna’s primary series or booster.

Fifty cases of myocardial infarction were identified through the Medicare database. After medical records were examined, 20 cases were confirmed and 21 others were deemed probable, with the rest being labeled possible.

Researchers identified an increased rate of inpatient pulmonary embolism, or blood clotting, among those who received Pfizer’s vaccine, and the statistical significance remained after adjustment.A nurse administers a COVID-19 vaccine booster to a person at a hospital in Hines, Ill., on April 1, 2022. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

But researchers cast doubt on a connection because they detected a statistically significant decrease in inpatient pulmonary embolism (PE) among those who received Pfizer’s monovalent booster. The Moderna and Pfizer monovalent boosters were replaced in the fall of 2022 with bivalent boosters, which weren’t covered in the study.

An elevated but not statistically significant rate of blood clotting was identified for Moderna’s primary series, but a statistically significant reduction was found for Moderna’s booster, which “adds to the level of uncertainty about an increased PE risk,” the researchers said.

A total of 23 cases of pulmonary embolism were detected through the database. The results of medical record adjudication were unclear because cells were redacted to “protect patient confidentiality,” according to the FDA researchers.

An elevated rate wasn’t found for the other adverse events that were examined. They were immune thrombocytopenia, or a blood platelet disorder, for the primary series and boosters; disseminated intravascular coagulation, which causes blood clotting, for the primary series and boosters; and myocarditis and pericarditis for just the boosters. The FDA chose to combine the results of two sets of research, or one for the primary series and one for boosters, into one study.

The first study looked at data from Dec. 11, 2020, through April 16, 2021, for myocardial infarction; through April 30, 2021, for pulmonary embolism and coagulation; and through May 7, 2021, for coagulation. The second study looked at data from Aug. 12, 2021, through April 30, 2022, for infarction; through May 7, 2022, for myocarditis/pericarditis; and through May 14, 2022, for Bell’s palsy.

The researchers concluded that the results “support the favorable safety profile of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines administered in the elderly.” The study was funded by the FDA, which has backed COVID-19 vaccination throughout the pandemic.

Kidney Injury

New Zealand authorities said they found in an analysis of health records that Pfizer’s vaccine was linked with several adverse events.

Utilizing national electronic health records and studying the incidence of 12 adverse events after Pfizer vaccination in the population of those aged 5 and older, researchers identified a statistically significant increase in heart inflammation, or myocarditis and pericarditis. They also detected a statistically significant association between the Pfizer vaccine and acute kidney injury.

Like the FDA researchers, New Zealand officials used adjusted incidence rate ratios. They looked at the incidence of each adverse event in the weeks following vaccination and compared the figures to the incidence before the pandemic.

Researchers detected an increased risk of a number of conditions following vaccination, but the only statistically significant increases were for acute kidney injury and myocarditis/pericarditis, including a big jump in heart inflammation following a second dose of a Pfizer vaccine.

Consistent with other research from around the world, most cases of inflammation occurred in youths.

The New Zealand government funded the study, which was published as a preprint by The Lancet.

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END

Jeffrey Tucker….Brownstone..

Who Benefitted From This Chaos?

SATURDAY, FEB 11, 2023 – 03:45 PM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Two years ago on this day, I posted a piece that was very hard to write. It concerned precisely who was benefiting from the lockdowns, masking, and all that was associated with it, including school and business closures and travel restrictions.

As much as we would all prefer for everyone to be concerned about big issues like public health and human rights, it’s sadly the case that industrial interests (and even ruling-class evildoers) sometimes prevail over both.

Obviously, most people all over the world have lost so much over three years, not only health and income but also hope. It’s tragic. Meanwhile, many others seem to have made out like bandits during the biggest transfer of wealth in the shortest time in the history of humanity.

(null xtract/Pexels)

Many groups and sectors had a kind of hankering for a pandemic. They turned a widespread and mostly manageable pathogen—doctor/patient relationships and reasonable cautions on the part of the vulnerable—and converted it into the basis for a global panic of compulsion and coercion that overthrew centuries of progress in law and liberty.

Let’s just go through the list of beneficiaries I first compiled two years ago.

1. The tech companies that became so enraptured with the digital world—and we can include online retailers in this—that they forgot all the people who cannot and do not want to live entirely outside the physical world. To be sure, many of these high flying companies are now coming back to earth thanks to higher interest rates. Even Zoom may be falling on hard times. To which I say: Schadenfreude.

2. The pharmaceutical companies with hundreds of billions of investment in labs and distribution circles that wanted to ply their wares in the midst of emergencies, in addition to the PCR testing industry, not to mention mask and ventilator makers and so many other grifting companies in this space. They not only gain from tremendous subsidies and indemnification from damages; they even got governments to conscript their customer base.

3. Public health intellectuals, who for at least a decade and a half had fallen for the romance of computer modeling, were itching to try out a new method for disease mitigation. They must have gotten quite a kick out of watching the experiment tried out in real time. Speaking of: we haven’t heard from these people in a very long time. They seem conveniently very quiet. Notice how the prophets of doom who were all over the news three years ago, with their magic ability to see the future with precision, have completely vanished?

4. The mega-billionaire Bill Gates found himself vexed by computer viruses that were wrecking his Windows operating system and thereby developed a passion for blocking viruses in general, while failing to understand the difference between biology and computer hardware. He seems to have done very well for himself, not only with his investments but now with his new book telling us how he will single-handedly change the path of the global climate.

5. Government officials certainly had a field day trying out new uses of power. My goodness, they even got their mitts on social media, scripting who gets to speak and who cannot. The national security state hasn’t had this much fun since the Cold War. It was, in short, the most successful ramp up of government power the world over in modern times or maybe ever. Disease panic proved more advantageous to them than ever war and economic depression.

6. Media companies, who live on clicks and know with certainty that public panic is the best way to guarantee consumer attention, did especially well, given that millions were locked at home with nothing else to do. Talk about a captive audience!

7. The Chinese government, which was supremely annoyed at the Trump administration’s trade policies, successfully trolled the West into believing that China nixed the virus through totalitarian controls. It can now brag to have scripted the pandemic response for the whole world, and is now goading the World Health Organization into doing ever more of it.

8. Rabid opponents of the Trump administration, who had failed to wreck it through accusations of Russian collusion and then impeachment over a phone call to Ukraine, finally turned to creating tremendous social, economic, and political chaos by massively overblowing the severity of a widespread viral pathogen, which itself became a metaphor for the political infection they believed afflicted the country. This was the final undoing of the administration, much to the celebration of his political opponents.

9. School teachers’ unions that have been wanting to strike for years in order to extract pay and benefits from the taxpayer, worried that doing so would turn their public against them; for them, lockdowns were the perfect excuse to find another way. They abandoned their jobs and got paid anyway. Then they tried to make the racket last as long as possible.

10. A ruling-class population that has lost touch with people who cannot live on their computers, had become increasingly detached from the flow of life as it exists in the physical world, utterly failed to empathize with the suffering of others under lockdown. But they rather warmed up to the mess they had created because it meant they could make the big bucks while never changing out of their PJs.

Social distance: A cyclist rides past a Santa Monica beach parking lot in Santa Monica, Calif., on March 24, 2020. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

Those were my choices two years ago and they hold up rather well, if I may say so. No one interest group could have achieved this on its own. It required a perfect storm. It doesn’t have to be a conspiracy much less a specific plot. It only requires that the right confluence of events present themselves in a way that prompts action and cooperation.

I might add one more push for pandemic that touches on a general philosophy of life. The world is overflowing these days with people who are consumed by ideology. They have a perception that something is fundamentally wrong with the world and are possessed with a burning passion to fix it. They long for big change, mighty drama, epic shifts in history. For them, the marginally improving world of bourgeois existence seems dull and uneventful. The pandemic was for them something exciting and momentous: it presented a chance for a Great Reset.

That we will look back with astonishment at what has happened to the world is a near certainty. The folly! And people of the future will never stop asking that great question of why. The answer is finally unsatisfying. It was a massive screwup by people and groups who wanted to try something completely new, none of whom were willing to bear responsibility for the results. And from that screwup, all the wrong people got riches and power.

It will be up to the rest of us to pick up the pieces and get life on the right track again. This does not happen without accountability and some measure of justice.

end

A must read…..Brandon Smith outlines the biggest lies people believed about COVID

(Brandon Smith)

What Can We Learn From The Biggest Lies People Believed About COVID?

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

At the very beginning of the covid event in late 2019 to early 2020 the public had little to no information on the details surrounding the outbreak in Wuhan, China and what kind of virus the world might be facing. The virus was coming to western shores and so the public had to prepare for the potential consequences.

People were supposedly dying en masse in China, but the communist country refused to give accurate data on the situation and to this day their reported covid death rate is highly suspect. After a period of uncertainty, suddenly, there was a rush by the media and by government officials to predict the worst case scenario. The WHO was calling for a SARS-like death rate of at least 3% or more – That would mean a global tally of over 240 million+ fatalities.

For those of us in the Liberty Movement, this was seen as the “big one”; the kind of event that crashes economies and leads to an authoritarian society. It almost became that…

From the very beginning certain narratives being promoted in the mainstream did not meet logical or scientific standards. It became obvious that fear was the goal, rather than safety. But in order to create fear, establishment elites and governments had to LIE BIG. Here are some of the biggest lies told to the public about the pandemic:

Wuhan Wet Market Bat Soup Ground Zero?

To this day there is no hard evidence that Covid-19 was gestated within the Wuhan wet market or that it was contracted by people eating bat soup. This lie was the reason I immediately began to suspect all information related to covid in the early days of the event.

In January of 2020 at the onset of the outbreak I published an article titled ‘How Viral Pandemic Benefits The Globalist Agenda’. In that article I outlined evidence surrounding the Level 4 Biolabs in Wuhan, China and their specific work in SARS and coronaviruses. The labs are right down the street from the “wet market” which was haphazardly labeled “ground zero.” Bizarrely, the mainstream media absolutely denied any validity for the Wuhan Lab theory and immediately began accusing anyone who mentioned it of conspiracy theory.

The Wuhan Lab should have been suspect #1, yet the MSM was busy blaming bat soup and social media companies were busy banning anyone that mentioned the claim. Mounting evidence continues to suggest that the virus came from the lab in Wuhan.

Why was this information ignored by the corporate media? It might be due to the American officials deeply involved in research at Wuhan. In 2020, evidence began to surface that Anthony Fauci, the lead figure handling the coronavirus response for the Trump Admin and later the Biden Admin had extensive ties to the Wuhan Lab. NIH documents prove that Fauci and his partners were involved in gain of function research on coronaviruses at Wuhan – Fauci has consistently lied about these ties and his level of involvement.

It’s rather suspicious that the very same man who was using covid as an excuse to enforce sweeping restrictions that violated nearly every aspect of the US constitution was also the man that potentially funded the creation of the virus in the first place.

The Pandemic Was Unexpected?

I also pointed out in 2020 that a little over two months before the pandemic the WEF, Bill Gates and Johnson and Johnson held a “simulation” of a viral pandemic called “Event 201.” The outbreak they were simulating? Coronavirus. What a coincidence.

The one thing that I believe was unexpected for the globalists, the thing that derailed a large part of their agenda, was the low Infection Fatality Rate of covid. The Event 201 simulation predicted a minimum of 60 million deaths from a coronavirus outbreak in the initial stages of the crisis. This obviously did not happen. They seemed to be operating on the assumption that many more people were going to die than actually did.

Covid Death Rate Of 3% Or More?

The manner in which the media, CDC and the WHO exaggerated the threat of covid cannot be forgiven. There was no evidence whatsoever to support the original claim that covid’s death rate would be 3% or more, and these organizations continued to lie about the threat covid presented long after numerous contrary studies were released.

As early as 2020, data showed that the median Infection Fatality Rate of the virus was a mere 0.23% (officially). Our government REFUSED to mention this number to the public and I do not think I have ever seen it mentioned in the media.

That’s right – The official survival rate for covid was always 99.8% or greater. Yet, people were led to believe that there would be bodies piled in the streets because no official agency and no mainstream journalists were willing to report on the real IFR. They WANTED people to remain afraid.

Millions Died In The US From Covid

This may be one of the biggest lies of all. Scientists and doctors are now admitting what many of us knew for a long time – That hospitals were declaring people dead from covid who had died by other causes. Studies now show that around 60%-70% of all covid deaths were “incidental”, meaning the patients had covid but died from a different cause, and they were marked as covid deaths anyway.

Does this mean that all doctors were in on a conspiracy? No, it just means that they were following systemic policies being implemented by the CDC. Even CNN’s top medical propagandist has admitted that covid deaths have been over-counted…she just admitted it two years too late.

Masking Works?

Masking makes no difference in the spread of covid. This should have been obvious from the fact that the states in the US with the strictest masking rules also had high rates of infection. However, while media outlets like the New Yorker were publishing articles making the case for “mask mandates forever,” an array of peer reviewed studies prove that masks are essentially useless against covid.

The debate is over, the science is in. The leftist mask cult can shut up now. They were wrong.

Masking And Social Distancing Outside Is Necessary?

One thing that I thought was utterly mind boggling was the implementation of mask mandates, distancing and lockdowns in outdoor places like beaches and parks. This defies everything we know about virology. UV light from the sun is a natural disinfectant and transmission of viruses in open air is incredibly low risk. Basically, it’s not going to happen.

I don’t think I saw a single doctor or scientist in the media bring up this fact, which has been known for decades. Some media outlets even lied about the effectiveness of sunlight in killing viruses like covid, arguing that the idea was false.

Why did governments and the media want people to believe that wearing masks outside was necessary? It makes no sense, unless you understand that it was not about science, it was about control. If you spent your days jogging, bike riding and walking in the park wearing a mask, you were well and truly duped.

Large Scale Lockdowns Work?

There is no evidence that lockdowns were effective it stopping the spread of covid. States with the harshest lockdowns also in many cases had the highest infection rates. Studies show that the effects of lockdowns on viral spread were negligible. China, a nation with some of the most draconian lockdown policies in the world, has encountered multiple widespread covid outbreaks in the past couple years. It’s time to take a hint.

Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated?

There was never a pandemic of the unvaccinated, this was leftist media and White House hype. Breakout cases, meaning deaths of vaccinated people, have been present ever since the vaccines were introduced. In fact, studies now show that the vaccinated make up the majority of covid deaths.

The Vaccines Reduced Infection And Death Rates?

There is no concrete evidence that the vaccines made any difference in the spread of the virus or in saving lives. The most aggressive infection and fatality rates from covid plunged in early 2021, months BEFORE the vaccines were widely distributed to the public. This suggests that the population was already developing herd immunity before the vaccines were introduced.

The majority of covid vaccine studies do not use the unvaccinated as a control group to show the effectiveness of mRNA products. So, vaccine efficacy is nothing more than a guess based on incomplete data. Studies outside of the pharmaceutical industry continue to show that natural immunity is far superior to the vaccines.

Covid Causes Heart Failure?

This is a lie spread by the mainstream media through their “covid heart” narrative. There is no such thing as covid heart and studies prove this claim to be false.

What Can We Learn?

The hailstorm of lies surrounding the covid pandemic teach us a number of things – We now know beyond a shadow of a doubt that future crisis events will be used as an excuse for the erasure of our freedoms. We have seen it first hand. The insidious measures we witnessed in western countries in response to people who refused to comply with mandates or vaccination on scientific and moral grounds showed us how precarious our civil stability truly is.

We learned, in the US at least, that conservative states were willing to stand up to the federal government and defy lockdown policies. This was after millions of people (mostly conservatives) put pressure on states to act, but we did prove that the public still has influence and that some states are willing to defend our rights.

To be fair, no one knew for sure what danger covid presented in the early days of the outbreak, but after it became clear it was a nothing burger, any political leader that continued to fear monger should be watched carefully.

Sadly, we also learned that there are millions of people who are willing to believe anything the government tells them as long as that government is aligned with their ideological biases. In America the majority of constitutional violations occurred in leftist controlled blue states and cities. Red states were mostly free, blue states were not. Red states abandoned mandates quickly while blue states tried to keep them permanently. This is just a cold hard fact.

By extension, while some people have expressed regret, it has become clear that a large number of leftists STILL refuse to admit they were wrong despite all the evidence that debunks their covid beliefs. In the end, for them, covid was about “winning” rather than being factually right.

The truth is, there is a sizable percentage of people who live vicariously through tyranny. They feed on scraps from the tables of authoritarians. These are the useful idiots we have long warned about in the liberty movement, and they were definitely on parade during covid, applauding the end of our country as we knew it and joyfully embracing Big Brother. When the next crisis erupts it’s not just the globalists we have to worry about, it is also the horde of leftist cultists and Karens anxious for another taste of power and willing to do anything to get it.

end

GLOBAL ISSUES;/GLOBAL ECONOMIES

DR PAUL ALEXANDER/DR PANDA\

3 graphs as of today, that tells you a story i)COVID infections/cases are near flat, it is DONE, COVID is DONE ii)near ‘0’ vaccine uptake means NO ONE wants it, it is deadly iii) deaths elevated, WHY?

IMO: the COVID infections-cases have bottomed out, the uptake rate is near zero (no one wants it) but deaths surging! Why these deaths? Because of the effects of the mRNA-DNA gene injection vaccine

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 13

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ii)

iii) Why the deaths? See next graph. It is being caused by the COVID gene injection itself, the delayed treatment across 2-3 years that caused chronic diseases to fester and get worse and now people are dying of the delay, and the devastating treatment our loved ones got within the hospital system, the isolation, the misery, the malnourishment, the dehydration, the sedation with paralytics midazolam and diamorphine, the pumping with toxic deadly drugs like Remdesivir that is kidney and liver toxic, and the intubation and ventilation that killed many of our peoples. Remember what they did to our parents? See video below.

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1570188484404453377/pu/vid/320×568/CUd42nl35Srwt3zy.mp4?tag=12

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So this is it, it is very clear now! Mo shots, mo deaths! Smalley said ‘Mo jabs, mo deaths’ same thing! These Mo Fos did this to us, the Faucis & Walenskys & Bourlas of this world! Lock them all up!

The excess mortality is staggering, often above 15 to 20% in highly vaccinated nations; in nations with elevated vaccine rates, there is elevated infections, re-infections, hospitalizations, deaths

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 13

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See substack on Australia data today!

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter

DEVASTATING Australian NSW data showing the quadrupled COVID mRNA vaccinated (4 shots) have massive spikes in hospitalization & death! Data as of December 2022 and NOTE: dose response & no vaxx

Globally, especially in US and Canada and UK and Australia and New Zealand etc., our governments have engaged in the most widespread and devastating cover-up, one that has left us vulnerable and where many of us will die from these shots. They harmed us by censoring us and we were unable to get the message out to more people. We went and mandated our pr…

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Dr. Naomi Wolf is agonizing as she witnesses TWITTER executives & similar now squirm who sought to destroy her life & impose reputational damage, shattering her dreams with loss of income

‘They persecuted not just me but Dr Martin Kulldorff; Dr Jay Bhattacharya; Dr Paul Alexander; Dr Peter McCullough’. They were willing to collude illegally with the government to decide for Americans

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 12

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Dr. Wolf is actually seeing the faces of the IMO, malfeasants, who singled her out, who colluded with the White House, with Carol Crawford of CDC, and with DHS potentially (to be verified), who did this ending with suspensions of her and her constitutional rights. Her right of free speech, and the irony of it all was that Dr. Wolf was simply trying to warn women of menstrual harms following mRNA injection. These people function to commit crimes against freedom of speech and the Constitution. Will this be shown in the end?

Imagine that. Imagine we are now seeing clearly how and by whom this insanity was done.

Who gave them that right?

These malfeasants IMO, operated ex cathedra, pontificating on us and Wolf was a clear target of their venom. Dr. Wolf is right to be outraged, all of us are who were cancelled and blocked and shut down and smeared for in the end, we were damaged and lives were lost. That is what these illogical, irrational, specious, often absurd and non-sensical technocrats and IT and media executives do not seem to understand, which is that their direct actions and decisions costed thousands of lives and so we must get accountability. We want justice. In proper legal forums and tribunals. We want to be made ‘whole’ again and we want all those who ‘lost’ due to the COVID lockdown lunacy, the beautiful mom and pop, our parents, grand-parents who died in isolation and misery in the medical system (sedated, pumped with toxic Remdesivir, intubated and ventilated often dying of malnourishment and dehydration behind a glass window), those who were forced under threat of law and job loss to take the gene injection shot, the blue collared, the every day employee who were denigrated and demeaned for wanting to ask questions and to exercise their natural immunity, we want them made ‘whole’ for their losses. At the same time, we want all those who partook in the lockdown lunacy and the COVID gene injection, in all of its ineffectiveness and harms, to pay, as a good governance society would permit.

I stand with her.

As she writes:

‘But this time they appear in our America, in their bad blue suits, with their pompous nasal voices; saying “I have no knowledge of this matter”; or “I can’t hear the question”; as they occupy, with their damaged consciences, their nauseating excuses, seats in a hearing room on Capitol Hill in the United States of America.

Will we let these cultural functionaries — who operate just like those petty tyrants of the cultures of Berlin and Munich not so long ago — take up space, with impunity, in the heart of our America?

Or will we drag America back into daylight and sunlight again, and force these equivocating wretches to face their own degenerate crimes — crimes against freedom of speech and the Constitution?’

Dr. Wolf presents how this now looks to her as US congressional hearings begin and I share her always prescient and well written substack on this issue titled

“The Pain of Listening To Twitter Censorship Testimony; Nasty, Ill-Dressed Technocrats, I Want My Life Back’:

Outspoken with Dr Naomi Wolf

The Pain of Listening To Twitter Censorship Testimony

As I type, I am undergoing the excruciating experience of listening to C-SPAN, which is airing “Twitter’s Response to Hunter Biden Laptop Story.” The larger issue is: who censored Twitter, and why, and whether there was illegal collusion (there was) between Twitter and the US government…

end

DEVASTATING Australian NSW data showing the quadrupled COVID mRNA vaccinated (4 shots) have massive spikes in hospitalization & death! Data as of December 2022 and NOTE: NO (zero), one, two doses

Same data emerged in Alberta and globally now and it is clear that the COVID gene injection is a grave problem & while we were attacked & smeared for saying this early on, it is time to END it!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 12

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SOURCE:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiODQ4NTg4OGUtNWU5ZS00MjQ3LWJmODgtNzI1N2RmOWY3N2Y3IiwidCI6IjZmMGU5YzQyLTk2Y2UtNDU1MS05NzAxLWJhMzFkMGQ2ZDE5ZSJ9&pageName=ReportSection1c3fdc161d4008c845a6

end

I have to give Joel a shout out for his continuous great work too!

Dead Man Talking

‘Mo jabs, mo deaths’

Since the start of COVID, there have been four distinct periods of excess death in England. In this short study, I have aggregated excess death in each of the 300+ lower tier local authorities (LTLA: administrative areas of England). This allows us to measure idiosyncratic excess death against idiosyncratic levels of COVID “vaccination…

Would seasonal influenza shots leave one at risk for severe illness to H5N1?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 11

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The question above is an important one to consider.

SOURCE:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1732574/bird-flu-who-h5n1-Tedros-Adhanom-Ghebreyesus-update

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has issued an alarming warning over a severe bird flu outbreak which has jumped from birds to mammals, urging the world to prepare. While the risk to humans remains low at present, health chiefs have stressed that this could all change. WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Wednesday that cases of avian influenza in minks, otters, foxes and sea lions reported in recent weeks require close monitoring and is urging countries to take action.’

end

Dr. Steven Hatfill & SHARYL ATTKISSON: Dr. Hatfill calls for ‘urgent’ study after 2 teen deaths following Covid vaccine; new data concerning COVID-19 mRNA vaccine injury, comes from a recent report on

the autopsy of two adolescent deaths shortly after the administration of a second Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA injection. These histopathology findings demonstrate a post vaccine pattern of injury

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 12

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SOURCE:

https://sharylattkisson.com/2023/02/researcher-urgent-study-needed-after-2-teen-deaths-following-covid-vaccine/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Sharyl+Attkisson+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily+Newsletter

Shocking (yet we told them so) age-stratified COVID-19 vaccine-dose fatality rate (vDFR) for Israel & Australia; confirms that COVID gene injections (mRNA-DNA) cause deaths & dramatically in elderly

Rancourt again gives us a glimpse with his team of superb scholarship as he unpacks the age-stratified data, finding that the elderly are at greatest risk of death from vaccine over younger

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 11
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We know from autopsy studies and adverse effect monitoring that the COVID-19 vaccines can cause death. The evidence landscape is now firm that the COVID gene injection (mRNA- or DNA platform) is ineffective, gets to negative effectiveness, drives infection in the vaccinated, drives immune tolerance (IgG class-switch induced antibodies), drives original antigenic sin immune fixation or imprinting (recall antibodies), drives paradoxical priming, drives viral immune escape, drives antibody-dependent enhancement of infection (ADEI) and also of disease )ADED), and drives infectious variants as well as causes deaths across all age-groups administered.

For this examination, vaccine-dose fatality rate (vDFR) is the ratio of vaccine-induced deaths to delivered/administered vaccine doses.

Researchers found that the ‘vDFR increases dramatically with age for older adults, being exponential with a doubling time of approximately 5.2 ± 0.4 years. As a result the vDFR is an order of magnitude greater in the most elderly population than the all-population value, reaching 0.6 % for the 80+ years age group in Israel and 1 % for the 85+ years age group in Australia, compared to < 0.01 % for young adults (< 45 year olds).’ The results indicate that it is dangerous and deadly to focus vaccinating (or prioritize) those deemed to be at greatest need of protection.’ This being the elderly.

I have been against these COVID vaccines en toto, day one. We have said that vaccine may be, based on informed consent, risks and benefits properly explained, focused on the high-risk. Yet this data is clearly showing that we are even wrong to administer this to our high-risk precious elderly. They have early treatment available. We know of Vitamin D3 as potent in reducing severity and mortality especially if serum levels remain above 50 to 60. I again state as firmly as I can that all we needed day one in this pandemic and still today is to:

1)isolate and quarantine ONLY sick and unwell persons; never ever isolate well asymptomatic persons in a society or at the border; never ever MASS test asymptomatic persons especially with a process like the RT-PCR that was 95% false-positive being over-cycled beyond 24 cycles that then only detect viral dust and fragments and unculturable non-infectious, non-lethal pathogen

2)you strongly double and triple down protect the vulnerable e.g. elderly and other high-risk persons; this is a key component for any move towards achieving population herd immunity; this is no call to ‘let it rip’; the vulnerable often cannot take vaccine or be exposed directly so we use the low-risk ‘recovered’ population to protect the vulnerable

3)we allow the vast rest of the low-risk, healthy persons, including children, to live freely, unfettered lives, no lockdowns, no school closures, just taking reasonable precautions.

4)use early treatment as needed, used Vitamin D3 lavishly, use nasal-oral rinses, and ventilate homes, and if needed in homes, use oxygen support.

This is the reason why we should not have used the population as guinea pigs to trial these vaccines as to the long-term effects. The data is showing what would have emerged had Pfizer and Moderna been phased properly and to sample size and duration and this data underscores that the regulator FDA, failed the American population. Health Canada failed the Canadian population. All such regulators caused deaths to their populations.

SOURCE:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368389701_Age-stratified_COVID-19_vaccine-dose_fatality_rate_for_Israel_and_Australia

See also Awakenotwoke substack, please take a look at this good scholarship:

https://substack.com/profile/88409534-awakenotwoke?utm_source=account-card

Danielle Smith, Premier of Alberta: Dr. Paul Alexander and Dr. William Makis call on Premier Smith to immediately stop the COVID gene injection in Alberta, definitely for no healthy children, COVER-UP

Excess deaths in Alberta surge past 10,000 – evidence of government cover-up; The booster shots were an even bigger disaster than the first 2 doses; stop these shots for young healthy people, children

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 11

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COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis

Excess deaths in Alberta surge past 10,000 – evidence of government cover-up (Part 2)

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney’s government proudly posted COVID-19 “vaccine outcomes” on its website starting in June 2021, claiming bogus vaccine efficacy of 93% for Moderna, 90% for Pfizer and 88% for AstraZeneca. The only problem: it was all a big lie…

VACCINE IMPACT

CDC Adds EUA COVID Shots to their Childhood Immunization Schedule to Target Poor Families on Government Aid

February 10, 2023 5:25 pm

The CDC has announced today that they have added the COVID-19 “vaccines” to their childhood immunization schedule. The COVID-19 “vaccines” now add another 2-3 doses of vaccines to the 25 doses of other vaccines already on the CDC schedule that can be injected into babies and toddlers during their first 15 months of life. This seems to be the first time in the history of the CDC that vaccines that are not even FDA-approved but only have EUAs (emergency use authorizations) have been added to the CDC childhood immunization schedule. How is this even legal? CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, while appearing before Congress yesterday, was asked why these shots were added to the Child Immunization schedule. She replied that they were added: “ONLY because it was the only way it could be covered in our ‘Vaccines for Children’ program.” The Vaccines For Children (VFC) program is a U.S. Government program to provide vaccines to low-income families receiving government aid through the Medicaid program. Could this be a path the U.S. Government is creating to require lower-income families to have their children vaccinated in order to receive other Government aid benefits, such as food stamps? If Brazil is an example of what is to come here in the U.S., then it is most certainly possible, if not probable. “Social Credit Brazilian Style: All UBI Recipients Must Be Vaxxed.”

Fingerprints of Unvaccinated NYC Teachers Flagged to FBI

February 10, 2023 5:37 pm

On February 8, 2023, while arguing on behalf of fired NYC workers who declined covid vaccination, attorney John Bursch stated in open court that unvaccinated teachers in New York City were flagged with problem codes in their personnel files, and when that occurred “their fingerprints are sent with that flag to the FBI and the New York Criminal Justice Services.” In federal court on February 8th attorney Susan Paulson who was defending NYC stated that educators fired for declining covid vaccination were not removed for misconduct, but rather for not meeting a requirement for employment. If there was no misconduct, why are unvaccinated educators fingerprints sent to the FBI?

end

SLAY NEWS//

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MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

Unidentified Flying Inflation

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 10:10 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Unidentified Flying Inflation

A Chinese balloon was shot down over the US early last week. An unidentified flying object was shot down on Friday over Alaska; another over Canada on Saturday; Montana airspace was briefly closed on Sunday for related reasons; and yet another unidentified flying object was shot down during the Super Bowl. You want “we are not alone” speculation, you got it: CNN reports the US fighter pilots who shot down one of the objects could not identify any propulsion, and that it was just staying in the air at around 40,000 feet. So, a balloon(?): which can actually be effective war weapons according to some experts. You want Sputnik Cold War national security paranoia, you got it too. The alleged origin of these and other balloons, China, is about to shoot down a flying object over its territorial waters. (Which may be a good defense, except that it undermines Beijing’s complaint about the US shooting down one the first balloon in the same way.)

If you think this backdrop doesn’t matter for unidentified flying inflation, which we are going to look at this week via US CPI on Tuesday, then your head is up in the clouds.

On Friday we heard the new BOJ Governor is going to be Ueda-San, sending everyone Googling. At first it was decided he was a hawk and JGB yields and JPY were up; then that he is a dove, and markets swung the other way. Ueda will have to deal with Japan’s traditional problems, plus QQE and YCC, plus high headline inflation, plus rising wages, plus a massive increase in the defence budget, plus a potential Japanese trade deficit. Bloomberg today says that “Regardless of whoever sits in the BOJ hot seat, the biggest worry of global bond investors– a wave of Japanese cash heading home– has already begun in earnest and looks unlikely to stop.”

Russia announced it will cut oil output by 500,000 barrels a day in retaliation for G7 sanctions, pushing Brent up around 2.5%. That’s supply destruction that helps to ensure countries like Japan and Europe run trade and fiscal deficits, with downwards pressure on FX or upwards pressure on bond yields, both making higher defense spending harder to sustain.

Additionally, the US revised its 2022 CPI data higher. December is now 0.1% m-o-m not -0.1% as first reported, November 0.2% instead of 0.1%, and October 0.5% not 0.4%. What that means for Tuesday is anybody’s guess: the market consensus is 0.5% m-o-m, although there are credible calls saying things could be much lower and much higher.

Nonetheless, current risks are of a close encounter with inflation of the third kind: not the cyclical, transitory, supply-driven kind we can ignore; nor the cyclical, demand-driven kind we easily fought with monetary or fiscal policy; but rather the nasty structural mixture of supply and demand driven inflation that comes with unstable geopolitics, the weaponization of commodities and supply chains, and a shift back to national security, industrial policy, and protectionism. Which is where UFOs and Top Gun antics come in.

The fact that the market’s “2023 is not 2022 / immaculate disinflation” call could collapse in just six weeks would hardly be a surprise: year ahead calls are usually rubbish, and ones that reverse staggeringly wrong 2022 calls without revising the underlying understanding of why things happened that way, far more so.

Some of us have been Richard Dreyfuss making models of structural geopolitical inflation out of mashed potatoes, to similar responses from the market to that of his wife and kids; or investigating mysteries like Mulder and Scully. But most didn’t want to believe.

Do we really have unidentified flying inflation? No: it’s just that comfortable economic theories or market mental models no longer working today is as hard for some to admit as the existence of little green or grey men. That’s despite Russia’s actions, the West’s responses, balloons being shot down all over, and NordStream 2 being blown up. All of this is inflationary, and structural, on both the supply and the demand side.

The Chairman of the US House Armed Services Committee is pledging to remove all Chinese goods from US defence supply chains, with a major dislocating impact along them. The Economist covers ‘The history and limits of America’s favourite new economic weapon: America has ramped up controls on technology trade with China’.
The UK Telegraph reports ‘Europe rushes to launch Covid-style plan to ramp up shell production for Ukraine’, noting the ECB “could be used to raise funds to place orders large enough to convince defence firms to increase production.” (As long flagged here as a risk by the way.) It notes, “European governments have backed plans to use the EU’s multibillion-euro fast-tracked coronavirus vaccine scheme as a blueprint to produce the ammunition so desperately needed by Ukraine. A number of the bloc’s leaders told the Ukrainian president they “no longer have much in our warehouses to give” after he handed them weaponry wish-lists of weapons during a visit to Brussels earlier this week… Ukraine is firing an estimated 6,000 artillery rounds every day, according to Western intelligence figures, whereas Russia fires 20,000 a day – the same amount manufactured by European defence producers each month.”
Yet this is also about far more than munitions. Foreign Policy magazine underlines the critique that President Biden’s geostrategy lacks an economic vision that brings allies along, making it more reliant on a US military with inadequate funding despite a $848bn defence budget. Indeed, Bloomberg commentator Noah Smith underlines @ElbridgeColby in saying ‘Europe has to stand against Russia: the US is going to get distracted, and Russia isn’t going to stop.’ That would change lots of things a very great deal.
Secret British cross-party talks to try to rebuild ties to the EU, particularly in regards to defense, Russia, and China, are surely no coincidence; not as another UK insider says its armed forces are in such a parlous state that ‘If the UK went into battle today, I doubt we’d survive’.

Consider this all geopolitical reality bellowing out the Close Encounters’ five tones: and expect more big picture tunes to follow.

Meanwhile, we can see identified risks of flying inflation. The UK Chartered Institute of Personnel Development (CPID) says 55% of recruiters plan to lift base or variable pay this year as they struggle to hire and retain staff in a tight labor market; more than half of respondents reported having problems filling vacancies, and nearly one in three expected similar issues in the next six months. Wages are seen rising 5%, the most in at least 11 years, albeit far below CPI. At the same time, the CPID say planned pay settlements in the public sector will fall to 2% from 3% in Q4 – which will do wonders for the efficiency of the state as it faces up to existential geopolitical challenges. And in the US, Iowa is floating allowing children over 14 to work in mines and manufacturing as part of an apprenticeship. I had flagged a shift to blue collar work over the ‘go to college and do media studies’ route: I hadn’t expected we would see child labor.

In Australia, the press bewails ‘Why the Reserve Bank is pushing us towards a recession that we don’t need to have’; as “Chatter in the fixed income market is at DEFCON 1” on rumours RBA Governor Lowe may have said Aussie rates need to rise to 4.50%-4.75% to keep up with the US. The question is asked, ‘Is there a better way to kill inflation than raising interest rates?’, suggesting an alternative based on wage policies advocated by Keynes in ‘How to Pay for the War’ (1940). That has been referenced here a few times here in recent years – but not at all in ‘2023 is not 2022’ year-ahead calls.

Unidentified flying inflation? The truth may be out there on Tuesday.

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

WHAT AN ABSOLUE DOORKNOB!!

Biden Suddenly Orders Release Of Another 26 Million Barrels From Strategic Oil Reserve

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 04:20 PM

Five weeks after the US stopped draining oil from the Strategic ~~Midterm~~ Petroleum Reserve, which helped push gasoline prices sharply higher in January…

… on Monday afternoon, the Biden administration announced plans to sell more crude oil from the SPR, claiming it is fulfilling budget directives mandated years ago that it had sought to stop as oil prices have stabilized. Of course, the upcoming sales which will more than offset last Friday’s announced Russian production cut of 500kb/d, have nothing to do with the recent spike in oil and gas prices.

According to Bloomberg sources, the congressionally mandated sale will amount to 26 million barrels of crude, and is “in accordance with a budget mandate enacted in 2015 for the current fiscal year”, said a spokesperson for the Department of Energy.

The Energy Department has laughably sought to stop some of the sales required by 2015 legislation so that it can refill the emergency reserve, which currently has about 371 million barrels. After this latest release, the reserve will dip to about 345 million barrels, the lowest since 1983 following a drain of over 200 million barrels since the start of 2022.

Biden officials decided last year to tap 180 million barrels from the strategic oil reserve in an effort to ease supply issues after Russia invaded Ukraine, upending global oil flows and sending crude above $100 a barrel. Some Republicans criticized the Biden administration for that drawdown, which was the biggest release ever and helped drain the SPR to its lowest level since 1983. Critics admonished the move as a political stunt intended to combat rising gasoline prices ahead of midterm elections.

Just as laughably, Biden officials have since spoken with energy companies about purchasing oil to refill the SPR when oil prices approach $70 a barrel. What the officials forgot to say is that they will also sell even more SPR oil when oil prices approach $80 a barrel, like they did today…

… before falling 1% on the SPR drain news.

Finally, and completing the joke, the US House last month passed legislation meant to curb the Energy secretary’s ability to use the reserve unless the government increases the amount of federal lands available for gas and oil drilling. Apparently that particular legislation was just as toothless as everything else the Republicans are trying to pass.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

Brazil

Robert H to us:

Insanity makes places to live more scarce
This process will fail and likely the western world will go with it.
Brazil will diminish with this nonsense making it a no go for long term capital.
Many younger educated folk want out, so there will be a brain drain

Social Credit Brazilian Style: All UBI Recipients Must Be Vaxxed

FRIDAY, FEB 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

This is what CBDCs are being built for

Anybody who seriously thinks that Universal Basic Income (UBI) programs of the future won’t be full blown social credit systems need look no further than Brazil, where newly selected socialist / globalist Lula da Silva just decreed that the Bolsa Familia program will require family members to be vaccinated in order to continue receiving benefits.

“We can’t play, it’s a question of science. If I have 10 covid vaccines to take, I will take all that is necessary ”.

The news comes via The Rio Times, which describes the Bolsa program as “a social welfare program for the poorest families in Brazil” and “a kind of Universal Basic Income”.

UBI is considered by many to be beneficent and inevitable. I personally believe the latter but not the former.

However it shouldn’t surprise anyone that if you’re dependent on The Saviour State for your sustenance (as Charles Hugh Smith calls it), you are, in effect, their chattel.

CBDCs will be the rails for UBI programs

The emergence of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) initiatives in nearly every nation on earth clearly signals the direction this is going. Nearly every CBDC white paper or proposal I’ve come across have the following three characteristics spelled out in plain text, and I expect every CBDC to have these five capabilities baked-in, whether or not they are initially enabled (or documented).

#1) Expiry dates / use-by dates

CBDCs will have expiry dates after which their value will evaporate or erode. What I’ve noticed is white papers coming out of central banks started framing it as a feature, not a bug, to facilitate “recovery of lost funds”.

Abstract
An important feature of physical cash payments is resilience, which is due to their indifference to power outages or network coverage. Many central banks are exploring issuing digital cash substitutes with similar online payment functionality. Such substitutes could incorporate novel features, making them more desirable than physical cash. This paper considers introducing an expiry date for online digital currency balances to automate personal loss recovery. We show that this functionality could substantially increase consumer demand for digital cash, with the time to expiration playing an important role. Having more information available to the central bank improves accuracy of loss recovery but may decrease welfare.
— Best Before Expiry? Expiring Digital Currency and Loss Recovery, Bank of Canada Staff Paper, December 24, 2021

However the real reason CBDCs will have expiry dates is to stimulate money velocity and keep recipients dependent.

#2) “Anti-hoarding” features

Saving for the future is being rebranded as “hoarding” and it is becoming officially unfashionable because personal savings reduces dependancy on the state. The easiest mechanism for achieving this will be through negative interest rates on savings accounts, as per this IMF white paper,

“A world with lower inflation (and even zero inflation) and no persistent recessions may sound like a pipe dream, but we argue that it is possible by transitioning to an “electronic money standard.” Such a transition requires eliminating the zero lower bound, which central banks can achieve using readily available tools. Breaking the zero lower bound implies that the optimal rate of inflation will be lower than in the presence of the lower bound. This will empower central banks to quickly restore full employment and, over the medium term, possibly move toward targeting full price stability with zero inflation.”

…which goes on to outline the challenges there would be in eliminating the “arbitrage” between digital and physical cash:

A zero lower bound can be broken through a combination of (1) adopting or strengthening an electronic money standard in which electronic money is the unit of account and (2) implementing a time-varying interest rate (or more generally, rate of return) on paper currency (cash). Then, as the interest rate on cash moves in line with the official policy rates, there is no arbitrage between cash and money in the bank. Operationally this can be done while remaining quite close to the current monetary system, but there are several legal, communication, and political challenges to a transition to such an electronic money standard (Agarwal, and Kimball 2019).

(Despite the current rise in rates, once the money printers fire back up, this is where we’re headed).

#3) Total Information Awareness

Once it’s digitized in a centralized database (central banks) as opposed to being cryptographically secured on a decentralized blockchain (Bitcoin) – everything becomes known to central authorities instantly. Taxation can be applied per-transaction, but more interestingly – prices can also be modified on the fly.

If you’re behind on your property or income taxes – or have an unpaid fine (maybe because you’re fighting it), for example, they could simply enable a rolling garnishee on your wallet until it’s paid off.

While all transaction signatures are public on Bitcoin – they are pseudonymous and more importantly, unalterable. It’s true it may be known or discoverable that A sent sats to B, but there’s nothing any third-party can do about it. With Lightning on the ascent, combined with various privacy enhancements there – Bitcoin development is moving in the direction of more freedom and more privacy – which is the opposite direction of most CBDC initiatives.

Finally, whether CBDCs are launched with the noblest of intentions, there will at some point arise “an emergency” which will make it necessary for The People in Charge to “flip the switch” and turn them into:

#4) Social Credit Systems

Imagine if “LoonCoin” was a thing last year when the #FreedomConvoy hit Ottawa (and signalled the beginning of a worldwide revolt against Covid tyranny). Instead of emailing a list of bank accounts to be frozen that were cribbed from a (hacked) spreadsheet, they could simply direct the Bank of Canada to turn off everybody’s digital wallets who were in the vicinity of the protest, or who contributed to their crowdfund, or who retweeted the #HonkHonk hashtag.

Do you think they wouldn’t have done it?

Covid vaxports have already been weaponized in China, Brazil is doing it with their UBI program and when this is all formaized into a CBDC, they will probably not launch it without the framework for widespread social credit and control systems being part of the plumbing.

We all know from our experience with the pandemic, emergencies tend to drag on in perpetuity. The “War on Terror” is still in effect, and there are still legions of collectivist automatons tweeting #CovidIsntOver.

So when “The Long Emergency” (to use James Kunstler’s term) becomes a never ending, rolling climate crisis, the social credit systems built into CBDCs will be used to enforce:

#5) Carbon footprint tracking

Back in Carbon Rationing, CBDCs and Sound Money I wrote how this trajectory is more or less baked-in now, and that the state-run financial system is undergoing a shift from a debt-backed monetary system to one based on carbon quotas.

Dashboard of Svalna’s app. Image credit Svalna.

This is the ultimate end-game of CBDCs. There is no hidden agenda or conspiracy around this (there’s already a Mastercard that cuts off your spending when you exceed your carbon quota), and globalist elites are quite up front about it….

Why CBDCs will ultimately fail

The developments of CBDCs is something we monitor in The Bitcoin Capitalist (formerly The Crypto Capitalist). Every month we put out our coverage of CBDCs in the “Eye On Evilcoin” section and it’s not always bad news:

There is still some time to stop CBDCs

Despite all the jawboning about CBDCs, nobody has really deployed anything viable. It’s all still design and planning – with some test beds going on. The few projects that have launched formal, actual CBDC’s have largely stiffed: Nigeria’s Enaira, Venezuela (lol). Even China’s much vaunted Digital Yuan had an underwhelming reception at last year’s Olympics (my suspicion is that the global financial system is unraveling faster than CBDCs can be developed, so they may have to go with something already out there, like Ethereum).

Worth noting, is that Brazil plans to deploy its CBDC next year.

I should note one exception to all the proposals out there in former CFTC Commissioner Chris Giancarlo (a.k.a “CryptoDad”) and the Digital Dollar Project. So far it’s the one proposal I’ve seen bucking the trend among all CBDC specifications in that there is no talk of expiry dates, and an actual emphasis on tokenization, custody and privacy.

CBDCs will not be permanent

It amuses me that when I read these plans around social credit flavoured CBDC’s, policy makers still continue to believe that by hobbling “cash”, making it impossible to save, eliminating privacy and layering on Orwellian levels of social control, they still get something that the public will prefer to cash, crypto or Bitcoin.

It’s delusional.

Incentives matter, and that’s why nobody in their right might isn’t going to hold any wealth in CBDCs and keep their transactions within it to the lowest practical level.

The overall global system of governance is in a Fourth Turning style restructuring. With institutional legitimacy in tatters and public trust plummeting, CBDCs are typical and symbolic of the last gasp of industrial era, centrally planned economies.

The transition period between where we are now (Late Stage Globalism) and where we are headed – decentralized Network States, is going to be rough, so I advise battening down the hatches and reducing one’s reliance on government entitlements as much as possible…

Pro Tip: Don’t be poor

This is where we’re headed folks, so at the risk of sounding flippant, the solution is not to need financial aid.

Anybody depending on state entitlements or financial support will be CBDCerfs, their affairs fully regulated by the state, their carbon footprints metered, and rationed, while their lives are gamified through their smartphones.

Among the affluent G20 nations where woke-ism reigns supreme and neo-Marxism is still fashionable, a lot of them may even like it.

But for the rest of us, who would prefer not to “own nothing and be happy”, it’s imperative that you have zero reliance on government subsidies, entitlements or support payments.

If you haven’t already:

Start a business. (Even a kitchen table business or an online venture)
Start stacking sats (Bitcoin) – get off zero, today.
Start taking sats at your business.

If you already own or run a business, buy, start or invest in another one.

It’s going to get a lot more expensive to be free. It’s not right or fair, but that doesn’t matter.

The good news is there’s never been a better time in history to learn, create, innovate and grow and these are the dynamics and incentives that will ultimately prevail. We’re in a period of Peak Collectivism and Peak Centralization now (for the next few years). This dominating ideology is ultimately an anti-human philosophy and this too shall pass.

Be ready for it, either way.

* * *

Follow me on Nostr , Gettr, or Twitter. For new pieces sent straight to your inbox subscribe to the Bombthrower mailing list – and receive a free copy of our long term thesis on Monetary Regime Change. Our premium newsletter, The Bitcoin Capitalist, covers CBDCs, digital assets and publicly traded crypto stocks using a distinctly value oriented approach. Try it for $2.

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0690 UP .0024

USA/ YEN 132.42 UP 1.142/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2106 UP 0.0085

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 23.49 PTS OR 0.72%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 26.00 PTS OR 0.12%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.16% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 26.00 PTS OR 0.12%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.49 PTS OR 0.72%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .16%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 25.38 PTS OR 0.31%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1862.00

silver:$22.00

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 103.41 DOWN 42 BASIS POINTS from SUNDAY’s close.

MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.215% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.500% UP 0 AND 7/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.392%// UP 0 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.178 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.371UP 1 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0721 UP 0.0054 or 54 basis points//

USA/Japan: 132.73 UP 1.465 OR YEN DOWN 147 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2136 UP.01142 OR 114 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0014 OR 14 BASIS pts to 1.3343

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.8225)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8252

TURKISH LIRA: 18.84 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.450…VERY DANGEREOUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 3.721% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.792 DOWN 2 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.24 DOWN 27 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 60,27 PTS OR 0.76%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 89.36POINTS OR 0.55

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 78.86PTS OR 1.11%

Spain IBEX UP 89.40POINTS OR 0.98%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 170.44 PTS OR 0.63%

WTI Oil price 79.51 12: EST

Brent Oil: 86.21 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 73.82/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 43/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.371

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.4290 UP 10 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0721 UP 0.0054 OR 54 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2134 UP .01128 or 63 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.426% UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 132.39 UP 1.12////YEN DOWN 112 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3338 UP .0008 (CDN dollar, DOWN 8 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 79.22

Brent OIL: 86.00

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 3.719%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3BASIS PTS to 3.792%

USA dollar index:103.25 DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.84

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 73.83 DOWN 0 AND 44/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 376.66 PTS OR 1.61%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 197.40 PTS OR 1.60%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.38 DOWN .15 PTS (0.73)%

GLD: $172.46 DOWN 0.90 OR 0.52%

SLV/ $20.24 DOWN 0.04 OR 0.20%

end)

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Stocks Soar Despite Hawkish Rate Scare Ahead Of CPI

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 04:01 PM

US equity markets surged today ahead of a week of data that could show inflation re-accelerating (CPI revisions), retail sales rebounding (high-frequency spending data), and business sentiment improving (Philly Fed forecasts). Nasdaq was the best performer while the rest of the majors were grouped extremely tightly together…

But, interestingly, short-term interest-rates actually moved (hawkishly), extending the post-payrolls repricing of an overly dovish perspective on terminal rates (higher) and rate-cuts (higher for longer)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that relative to the market’s terminal rate expectation, the US equity market appears to be pricing in a 6-7 25bps rate-cuts (which we would suggest will only happen if the fecal matter really smashes into the rotating object)…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is interesting since, with a 3-month lead, financial conditions have started to tighten recently…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, despite the tech gains, GOOGL continued to lag…

Bonds were mixed today with the long-end outperforming (10Y -2.5bps, 2Y +1.5bps). This is notable given a very heavy corporate calendar is expected to push the long-end yields higher..

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar drifted lower from the start of the European session after some strength in Asia…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin slipped further, unable to hold a brief break above $22k…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold prices slipped lower (despite a weaker dollar)…

Oil prices tumbled, erasing earlier gains, after news the US will sell 26m more barrels from its strategic crude reserve…

Retail gas prices have slipped lower in recent days but wholesales prices are on the rise again, suggesting gasoline will be getting more expensive for mom-and-pop again soon…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the market (CPI swaps) is pricing in a small beat tomorrow (hotter than expected CPI)…

Source: Bloomberg

How will the equity market handle that?

As a reminder, the S&P is back around the same level it was at when the December CPI hit, things went downhill fast after that (but that was influenced by the FOMC) and note that stocks ramped into January’s CPI but faded after it…

We shall see this time.

EARLY MORNING TRADING

LATE AFTERNOON TRADING//GRAPH FORM//CLOSING

END

ii) USA DATA

END

iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS

Saturday: News that a 2nd object was shot out of the sky

(zerohedge)

What’s Known So Far About The “Cylindrical & Silverish Gray” Object Downed Over Alaska

SATURDAY, FEB 11, 2023 – 11:00 AM

Recovery efforts utilizing military planes and helicopters in the far northeast arctic region of Alaska continue, where on Friday an unidentified object was shot down by F-22 jets.

Still, little definitive is known, including who owns the object or where it came from; however, in media and US official reports the ‘high-altitude’ object is increasingly being referenced as a another balloon.Via FlightRadar24

Biden called the operation a “success” – and yet didn’t engage reporters’ questions directly when asked about follow-up details.

What has become clear is that Biden gave the order to shoot it down before knowing who owned it or where it came from, or whether it was state-owned or perhaps owned by a corporation. And of course the question remains: was this another Chinese spy balloon? Or was it a weather research balloon just downed over Alaska?

According to details from White House and Pentagon briefings on Friday, including descriptions from senior officials, here’s what’s known at this point:

It flew at 40,000 feet
Deemed a safety threat to civilian aircraft
Unknown origin or ownership
Cylindrical and silverish gray
Roughly the size of a car
Smaller than the Chinese ‘spy’ balloon shot down last Satursday
Object not maneuverable or propelled
Shot down by US F-22 with sidewinder missile

Via Reuters

In the meantime the media is only hyping the rampant online speculation into overdrive…

In the end, there may be a very simple explanation, such as an arctic weather balloon – which aren’t uncommon among researchers and climate scientists in far northern regions.

END

Saturday night: a 3rd high altitude airborne object was shot out of the sky

(zerohedge)

Third High-Altitude Airborne Object Shot Down By US Fighter Jet

SATURDAY, FEB 11, 2023 – 06:15 PM

One day after the US shot down a ‘cylindrical, silverish gray’ object in the northeast arctic region of Alaska, another unidentified airborne object was shot down by the US military over northern Canada on Saturday – making it the third time in just over a week that jets were deployed to neutralize foreign craft.

The North American Aerospace Defense Command said earlier on Saturday that it had identified the high-altitude object, after which Canadian and US craft were scrambled, and a US F-22 filter jet took it down over the Yukon, according to a tweet by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Bloomberg reports.

The object was shot down with an AIM 9X missile, the same type used to shoot down the Chinese spy balloon last week, according to the Pentagon.

Canadian forces will recover and analyze the wreckage, Trudeau also said on Saturday, adding that he spoke with US President Joe Biden.

The latest incident comes after the recent incursion of a Chinese balloon over US and Canadian territory that shone a spotlight on Beijing’s alleged surveillance programs and sparked a diplomatic standoff between the world superpowers. The US also downed another unidentified object in Alaska Friday near the Canadian border.

…

It’s unclear what the latest object is and where it originated. But the US has accused China of a years-long surveillance program in which it deployed spy balloons across the globe, a claim rejected by Beijing.

On Friday, US officials shot down a craft that was ‘roughly the size of a car,’ and smaller than the Chinese spy balloon which was shot down last Saturday. It was similarly taken out by a US F-22. NORAD and US Northern Command said that the US military was conducting recovery operations on Friday’s object near Deadhorse, Alaska. Meanwhile, Northern Command said that the FBI was taking custody of debris from last Sunday’s Chinese balloon.

Also on Friday, the Biden administration put six Chinese groups suspected of connections to China’s spy balloon program on the “entity list,” effectively barring them from providing China with US technology.

end

Banana Republic

IRS sells USA citizens to delay filing their returns as the Feds cannot determine if 22 states refund cheques to citizens are taxable

(zerohedge)

IRS Tells Millions Of Taxpayers In 22 States To Delay Filing Returns

SATURDAY, FEB 11, 2023 – 09:55 AM

Update (11:25am ET): On Friday, the IRS said filers in 17 states needn’t report special payments from those states on 2022 tax returns: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

The IRS said special payments received by Alaskans aren’t federally taxable either, clarifying that this is the case “only for the supplemental Energy Relief Payment received in addition to the annual Permanent Fund Dividend.”

In Georgia, Massachusetts, South Carolina and Virginia, things are more complicated: “State payments will not be included for federal tax purposes if the payment is a refund of state taxes paid and either the recipient claimed the standard deduction or itemized their deductions but did not receive a tax benefit.” You really have to hate that 16th Amendment.

* * *

The IRS has advised millions of Americans in 22 states to delay filing their tax returns, while the agency tries to figure out if certain 2022 payments from those state governments are federally taxable or not.

At issue: state rebate checks that some people received from Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Virginia.

The Tax Foundation‘s Jared Walczak says the IRS should have sorted this out long ago:

“It’s unfair to taxpayers that we’re more than a week into February and still don’t know what millions of them are supposed to put on their federal tax returns. This could have—and should have—been avoided.”

The IRS’s overdue homework assignment is complicated by the lack of uniformity in the nature of these one-time payments from nearly two dozen states. Qualifications for the payments varied. For example, Florida’s and Rhode Island’s focused on families with kids, and only front-line workers qualified for Minnesota’s.

Many, like California’s, were characterized as a “middle-class tax refund” to counter inflation. That could put them in a different — and thus taxable — category, as compared to pandemic relief or welfare payments. Alaska’s was cast as additional proceeds from the state’s Permanent Fund Dividend that residents receive annually.

“There are a variety of state programs that distributed these payments in 2022 and the rules surrounding them are complex,” said the IRS in a statement posted last Friday, Feb. 3. “We expect to provide additional clarity for as many states and taxpayers as possible next week.” However, “next week” is almost over, and the IRS still hadn’t provided any new guidance as of Thursday evening.

“For taxpayers and tax preparers with questions, the best course of action is to wait for additional clarification on state payments rather than calling the IRS,” the agency added. The IRS says that if you’ve already filed, you shouldn’t amend your return.

TurboTax apparently thinks it knows the answers ahead of the IRS, with a spokesperson telling The New York Times that based on “currently available information” and the firm’s “expertise,” it’s concluded the rebates aren’t taxable at either the state of federal level, and isn’t telling users to pump the brakes.

By urging delayed filing, the IRS is imposing costs on many people, starting with foregone interest and use of money while Uncle Sam continues holding funds that will eventually be refunded when returns are filed.

Advisors recommend filing earlier in the cycle, to help thwart criminals who may claim a refund using your identity.

Alas, rebate recipients in 22 states have to wait for the criminals in Washington to sort out the particulars of their own extortion racket first.

END

As pointed out earlier millions of Americans are about to face a hunger cliff as 32 states slash emergency food stamp benefits

(zerohedge)

Millions Of Americans Face “Hunger Cliff” As 32 States Set To Slash Emergency Food Stamp Benefits

SATURDAY, FEB 11, 2023 – 12:00 PM

More than 30 million Americans face a “hunger cliff,” as 32 states are set to slash food-stamp benefits beginning in March. By number, California and Texas have the most people on food stamps, at 5.1 million and 3.6 million respectively.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) program notably exploded from $60.3 billion in 2019 to $119.5 billion in 2022 thanks to the Agriculture Department expanding food-stamp benefits by evading the normal process for determining eligibility and end-running Congressional review.

The reductions are due to the end of so-called emergency allotments, which bolstered food-stamp benefits at the start of the pandemic as Americans grappled with the massive disruption to the economy. While the U.S. is certainly on more stable footing than in 2020, households are now struggling with high food costs — groceries were about 10% higher in December than a year earlier — making the timing of the SNAP cuts particularly challenging, experts say. –CBS News

“This huger cliff is coming to the vast majority of states, and people will on average lose about $82 of SNAP benefits a month,” said Ellen Vollinger, the SNAP director at the anti-hunger advocacy group, the Food Research & Action Center. “That is a stunning number.”Graphic via CBS News

The move comes after 18 states already ended their emergency benefits, while the remaining 32 states that continued the additional aid will lose federal funding to in March as part of the 2023 Omnibus spending bill which was signed into law in December.Total cost of SNAP program (via the Department of Agriculture)

The changes mean that a family of four could see benefits cut by around $328 per month, while elderly Americans who receive the minimum monthly benefit could see their SNAP payments fall from $281 per month to as low as $23. In 2022, the average monthly benefit per person was $230.88, an increase from $129.83 in 2019.Average SNAP benefit per person (via the Department of Agriculture)

And despite having the lowest unemployment rate since 1969, more than 42 million Americans remain on food stamps – 6% more than in 2020, according to USDA data.

“What sometimes gets missed in that conversation is the part that so many SNAP households are employed, but often employed at low-wage levels — they aren’t in jobs that are family-sustaining so they still qualify for SNAP,” said Vollinger.

Food banks, meanwhile, are bracing for an increase in demand as food aid is slashed.

“People are having to choose between putting food on the table and paying rent,” said Food Bank of the Rockies CEO, Erin Pulling. “We are seeing more people than ever needing help with food assistance.”

As for the food stamp cuts, Pulling says “We’re bracing for it.”

END

Seattle Joins Long List Of Democrat Controlled Cities With Exploding Crime Rates

SUNDAY, FEB 12, 2023 – 04:00 PM

Seattle, WA, once known as a relatively quiet port town that became a haven for progressives seeking to avoid more dangerous metro areas like Los Angeles or San Fransisco, is joining the long and unfortunate list of Democrat controlled cities suffering from exploding crime stats.

Much like Portland, OR, which has spiraled into severe decline in the past five years with a record high homicide rate and expanding homelessness, Seattle is witnessing an aggressive increase in drug related problems as well as violent crime and property theft. In 2022, the city was host to 49,557 instances of violent crime and property related crime; setting a 15 year high. Homicides also increased by 24% in 2022. Seattle police chief Adrian Diaz admits that crime has grown out of control in the area, but remains “optimistic.”

Diaz warns residents not to “take matters into their own hands” when faced with criminals, but this is the position leftist politicians have forced citizens into as they continue to degrade economic stability and local security.

Seattle’s Democratic leadership is famous for its efforts to support the “defund the police” movement – An extreme social justice doctrine borne out of Black Lives Matter fanaticism. In the process the city lost over 400 sworn SPD staff members in less than two years due to resignation or early retirement. Many city council members who originally joined with activists in calls to divert 50% of police funds to housing, roads and environmental projects have quietly reversed course as crime skyrockets.

High minded progressive ideals often do not hold up to social realities, causing even more damage in the process. Theory is not the same as application.

It’s easy enough to examine the 2023 list of the most dangerous cities in America, including the top ten: Memphis, Detroit, Little Rock, Tacoma, Pueblo, St. Louis, Kansas City, Cleveland, Springfield and Rockford. All of them are run by Democrat mayors and majority Democrat city council members. In 2021-2022, of the 15 American cities with the highest homicide rates, Democrats controlled 11.

We have all heard about war zone metro regions like Chicago or Baltimore, but these places are only a part of a much bigger trend of leftist cities devolving into places most people prefer not to live. While Democrats often argue that many conservative states top the list of the most violent, what they don’t mention is that the vast majority of those crimes are committed in Democrat managed cities that often try to defy state government policies (leftist cities that offer sanctuary protection for illegal immigrants are just one example).

Almost without fail, the worst towns in America are being run by Democrats, and Seattle is the latest that has fallen into chaos in recent years.

END

This tells the real story on the economy

(zerohedge)

Goldman Sachs CEO Wishes He Fired Workers Earlier

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 07:50 AM

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon gathered his top executives in a closed-door meeting last week in Miami. The details of the meeting were leaked to Financial Times. Apparently, Solomon acknowledged his plan to lay off thousands of employees should’ve been enacted sooner.

“As the environment was growing more complicated in Q2 of last year, every bone in my body believed we should be much more aggressive in slowing hiring and reducing headcount,” Solomon said, according to one person with direct knowledge of what was said at the closed event.

Goldman fired 3,200 employees, or about 6.5% of its headcount last month. Many layoffs were in the investment bank’s core trading and banking units. The firings were the largest in its operational history.

Notice Solomon went on a hiring spree in recent years. Since the end of 2018, the headcount at the investment bank has jumped 34% to more than 49,000. Now the firing cycle is underway.

Solomon acknowledged at the event that if he were to reduce headcount earlier, such as in early 2022, the number of employees fired would’ve been less drastic.

Goldman’s net profits last year plunged nearly 50% from record earnings in 2021 due to lower investment banking fees, substantial markdowns at its asset management business, and losses in its financial technology segment.

Meanwhile, according to NYTimes, some board members of the investment bank are fed up with Solomon’s DJ career. Perhaps the CEO was blinded by DJ-ing, which is why he didn’t prepare Goldman sooner for a downturn.

end

What on earth is going on? continual diasters happening throughout the USA and Europe

(zerohedge)

Ohio’s Apocalyptic Chemical Disaster Rages On

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 09:26 AM

Submitted by ‘BlueApples’,

While the US government is dispensing millions of dollars in resources to treat balloons as an existential crisis, a small town in Ohio finds itself engulfed in what actually looks like the apocalypse. Perhaps by design, all of the drama surrounding violations of US airspace by Chinese spy initiatives has done well to keep what is becoming one of the worst environmental disasters in recent memory from getting any headlines.

The chaos began early last week when a train of more than 100 cars derailed in East Palestine, Ohio near the state’s border with Pennsylvania with roughly 5,000 residents. The accident launched fifty of those hundred freight cars from the tracks. Twenty of the freight cars on the train were carrying hazardous materials, ten of which were detailed. While the accident had no fatalities, of those ten cars, five contained pressurized vinyl chloride, a highly flammable carcinogenic gas

In order to address the volatile scenario around the crash site, the Ohio Emergency Management Agency executed its plan of venting the toxic gas with a controlled burn in order to evade an uncontrolled explosion which presented the risk of catastrophic damage. “Within the last two hours, a drastic temperature change has taken place in a rail car, and there is now the potential of a catastrophic tanker failure which could cause an explosion with the potential of deadly shrapnel traveling up to a mile,” Gov. Mike DeWine warned in statement explaining the decision to take action to avert widespread devastation.

However, that operation sent large plumes of smoke containing vinyl chloride, phosgene, hydrogen chloride, and other gases into the air as the flames from the controlled burn raged on for days. Phosgene in particular is a highly toxic gas that can cause vomiting and respiratory trouble. The toxicity of phosgene gas is so potent that it was previously used as a chemical weapon during the First World War.

The hazardous airborne chemicals prompted officials to issue mandatory evacuation and shelter-in-place orders within a one-mile radius of where the train derailed. Those orders forced nearly 2,000 residents of East Palestine out of there homes. Despite the public safety risk in proximity to the crash site, over 500 people within the parameters of the evacuation order refused to leave their homes. However, those orders were lifted on February 8th, allowing residents to return to the area adjacent to the disaster.

Following the controlled burn, local authorities received multiple concerning reports from residents outside of the mile-long radius of the evacuation area conveying that the emergency posed by the disaster was far from over. One local farmer reported the sudden deaths of many of the animals on the premises of his farm, Park Dairy. The farmer, Taylor Holzer, also works with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources as a registered foxkeeper. Following the disbursement of chemical agents into the air from the controlled burn, many of the foxes on Holzer’s farm experienced fatal effects from the air quality surrounding the area.

“Out of nowhere, he [a fox] just started coughing really hard, just shut down,” Holzer recalled to local media outlet WKBN 27 News. “This is not how a fox should act. He is very weak, limp. His eyes are very watery and weepy. Smoke and chemicals from the train, that’s the only thing that can cause it, because it doesn’t just happen out of nowhere,” he added.

“The chemicals that we’re being told are safe in the air, that’s definitely not safe for the animals…or people.”

Holzer’s concerns were echoed by reports from other residents who described similar conditions near their own properties. One of those residents was Katlyn Schwarzwaelder, the operator of a local dog kennel in nearby Darlington, Pennsylvania. The catastrophe caused her to leave her home despite the fact that it lies more than 10 miles away from the site of the controlled burn. After fleeing to Boardman, Ohio, 15 miles away from the derailment, Schwarzwaelder stated she received multiple reports of dead chickens, fish, and other animals from friends and acquaintances. One affected resident told Schwarzwaelder that they let their 2-year old dog out to use the bathroom only for it never to return. When they embarked upon a search for their missing pet, they found it dead in their yard.

Testimony from Holzer, Schwarzwaelder, and others paints a drastically different picture than the official narrative tailored by officials who assured residents that the situation was under control. The poor air quality presents short and long term health risks to the public considering the carcinogenic effects of the chemicals. Carcinogens like vinyl chloride can cause cancer in organs including the liver, according to Kevin Crist, a professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering who also serves as the Director of Ohio University’s Air Quality Center.

Although officials in charge of the emergency response utilized techniques like dispersion modeling in order to calculate and mitigate the risk of airborne chemicals, the chemicals disbursed following the derailment pose other significant risks of contamination. Chemicals also spilled into the Ohio River toward West Virginia, prompting officials from the neighboring state to shut down water production in the area and turn to alternative sources for water supply. Soil contamination is another significant risk that leaves officials weary of broader implications affecting public health than those associated with the air pollution alone.

However, the magnitude of those risks hasn’t been apparently recognized by the leadership across various states affected by the disaster. According to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, there were no concerns regarding the air and water quality in the area. Nevertheless, the governor reiterated that a shelter-in-place order remained in effect for Pennsylvanians within two miles of East Palestine. Officials from the Environmental Protection Agency took a similar tone, stating nothing unexpected was seen following the controlled burn. James Justice of the EPA summed up his agencies position by saying “So far, so good and we’re going to continue to monitor until the fire’s out,”.

While the immediate risks presented by a possible explosion following the train’s derailment may have been averted, the emergency response may become an instance of a cure being worse than the disease it seeks to remedy. The accidents also brings the state of safety regulations surrounding rail transport of hazardous freight into a new light. Over the last five years alone, eight train derailments have occurred in the Pittsburgh metro area, leading to calls for increased oversight over the industry.

Despite the inherent risk that comes with transporting chemicals like vinyl chloride, the US Department of Transportation approved a rule to expand the scope of what hazardous materials can be transmitted by rail. The rule made it permissible for liquefied natural gas to be shipped by train without additional safety regulations. This enables freight trains to transport 100 more tank cards with up to 30,000 gallons of the natural gas extracted from shale fields.

“The risks of catastrophic liquefied natural gas releases in accidents is too great not to have operational controls in place before large blocks of tank cars and unit trains proliferate,” the National Transportation Safety Board wrote in a comment if support of the proposed rule. In response to that comment, critics of the rule highlighted how a potential explosion of just twenty-two tank cards filled with liquefied natural gas holds the same amount of explosive energy as the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in the waning days of the Second World War.

The ongoing crisis in East Palestine represents an environmental and humanitarian disaster that hasn’t been seen in the United States in recent memory. The scenes from East Palestine look as if they’re taken straight out of a horror film depicting nuclear winter.

In spite of that, the magnitude of this story has been seemingly scrubbed from the public view as national media outlets continue to run sensationalist headlines about issues that look innocuous in comparison. It is an instance of history being rewritten in real time, setting a precedent that would allow victims of other widespread devastation to be swept under the rug. However, the scenes of the horror engulfing this small town in America’s heartland may prove to make this disaster impossible to ignore, rightfully putting the spotlight on the shortcomings of state and federal agencies tasked with emergency response management whose continued lack of accountability enables them to fail the American public time and time again.

3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//

”

USA COVID//

SWAMP STORIES

Furious Naomi Wolf Rages At The Pain Of Listening To Twitter Censorship Testimony

SUNDAY, FEB 12, 2023 – 11:00 PM

Via ‘Outspoken with Dr Naomi Wolf’ Substack,

So I finally am seeing them — up close, in real life, in person. I am finally able to look at the faces of the heretofore faceless technocrats who took it upon themselves to try to destroy my life and ruin my name.

I am witnessing, as I see them seated primly in rows in a Congressional hearing room, the very faces — the somber, ill-cut but costly blue suits, the bad wire-rimmed glasses, the judgmental expressions — of those who were personally responsible for the misery, trauma, reputational damage, shattered dreams, and loss of income, in my one life, over the course of last two and a half years.

Here at last are the very people who took it upon themselves, or who oversaw their colleagues, to single me out, to collude with the White House, and with Carol Crawford of CDC, and with DHS perhaps, to suspend me — following an accurate tweet of mine that warned women of menstrual harms following mRNA injection.

The positions of these people, the views of them — their self-regarding, self-satisfied, smug certainty that their rightness is the only rightness that could ever be — do not remind me of the testimony or views of actual Americans. They remind me rather of the affect of functionaries in a Stalinist show trial, or of the nameless bureaucrats in Kafka’s The Trial.

There, onscreen, present at last, is Yoel Roth, “Former Twitter Head of Trust & Safety” – with that oddly prim, pursed mouth that these technocrats all seem to have; with those fingertips touching each other, presenting himself as if he is the moderator of reality itself, and as if he finds himself in the presence of something that smells bad. There are his glazed defiant blue eyes, his slightly balding pate; the costly haircut; there is the sneering downward cast of his mouth. I try not ever to make critical personal remarks, but the ugliness, sorrow, loss, isolation and pain I sustained, and still sustain every day, at the hands of these until-now-faceless, self-righteous people, tend to make me see them aversively; or perhaps I see the moral ugliness of their decisions, as if manifested in their faces and body language.

Sorry — not sorry.

There he is: Mr Roth, wrongly claiming that, “paradoxically,” more speech equals more danger and not more safety for society.

There he is, this person so sure that he is so right, having tweeted that Republicans are “NAZIS”.

And here he is, sorry about that tweet now – that is, now that he is being asked about it – by those same Republicans.

There is Anika Collier Navaroli, “Former US Safety Policy Team Senior Expert,” talking about “dangerous speech”. There is her pale-gray jacket, her earnest if not bullying posture, as she leans forward, passionately describing the terrifying nature of freedom of speech. She describes a Twitter policy to address “coded incitement to violence” and to “address dogwhistles”. Overt threats of violence are of course already illegal, and they are the province of law enforcement, not of social media functionaries. Yet based on these “coded” tweets, rather than on actual threats of violence, Ms. Navaroli calls for more censorship. Thus she is already staking out and defending the Orwellian province of “thought crimes” or “pre-crime.” It was never Ms Navaroli’s role to decide if “dogwhistles” would lead to violence; that is the role of police and of the FBI. Why is she claiming that a social media platform is supposed to take on the role of maintaining physical public safety, that belongs to law enforcement?

Ms. Navaroli ends her hectoring introductory peroration with a pious, condescending conclusion that her mission is to make communication online “safe.” Her evidence of the crimes committed by speaking on Twitter, include this 1984-level sentence: “The President said he liked to send out his tweets like “little missiles”; and to me that sounded like weaponization of a platform.”’ Has the woman never taken an English class or learned about metaphors? Still later in the hearing, she accuses “fan fiction” of leading directly to the murder of people on Jan 6 — putting herself right in line with the many despots and tyrants who, since the birth of the novel, have accused the act of reading of causing social mayhem.

Here is Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), asking Yoel Roth about Twitter’s marking of certain speech as “unsafe”.

There is Rep Eleanor Holmes Norton, a leader whom I used greatly to respect, fulminating about “conspiracies.” There she is using the dangerous language of “incitement”, a meaningless word that serves only to criminalize First Amendment- protected speech. There is Rep. Summer Lee (D-PA), on her first week on the job, alarmingly wrongly stating that it is her task to “protect the American people from misinformation” — a role for a member of Congress that is identified literally nowhere in the Constitution or in the Bill of Rights.

There is former Twitter counsel, former “head of legal, policy and trust” at Twitter, Ms Vijaya Gadde, with her slightly more polished look and her sapphire-colored jacket; a package that proves however only that pure evil can be as well dressed and coiffed as not. There Ms. Gadde is, prevaricating when Rep Nancy Mace (R-SC) asks her directly if Twitter ever censored Americans pursuant to demands from the Government. After Ms. Gadde’s mumbled gibberish in response, haplessly phrased in the passive voice, Rep Mace thanked Ms Gadde for admitting that Twitter had become a “subsidiary” of the FBI in illegally violating the First Amendment rights of Americans.

It is so painful for me to see these faces. I have a very intimate relationship to these people.

They tried to destroy me, and did a fair job of it, by some measures.

These are the people — “my”people, paradoxically; people educated like me, people who shared my political views until 2020; these are people who vacationed where I used to vacation, who hang out with people I know — who were the agents behind full- on Stalinist-type persecution of innocent Americans; of me; these are the people who ruined my life, or sought to do so, and destroyed my career, or sought to do so. These emotionally ugly, these nasty, self-satisfied folks, so sure that they are right, so very, very wrong; are here at last; right here on C-Span.

They persecuted not just me but Dr Martin Kulldorff; Dr Jay Bhattacharya; Dr Paul Alexander; Dr Peter McCullough. So many others. They scrubbed and manipulated the discourse of a platform that has no right to be any more censorious than a telecom company, because they were willing to collude illegally with the government to decide what can be said in America. The messaging from the FBI via “the super-secret James Bond tele-portal”, as Rep Jim Jordan so brilliantly and rightly put it, reached into the voices of Americans and strangled Americans’ rights; but Twitter and the company’s political friends went further than mere silencing. These smarmy people ultimately hurt, and may have helped to injure and kill, many thousands.

These are the people who decided to remove the accurate tweet of mine about menstrual symptoms subsequent to MRNA vaccines, that could have saved millions of women from the current agony and infertility that they now endure. These are the people who obeyed the instructions of their colleagues in government to censor me.

I looked at the bios of the people cc’d on Twitter’s communications with the White House about attacking my accurate tweet; they were a lot of young functionaries at the US Bureau of the Census, at least two of them, oddly, educated at the University of Delaware. These low-level Gen Z apparatchiks, and their incompletely articulate bosses, thought it was fine to destroy the career and try to shred the reputation of someone who had written eight international bestsellers, who had been a Rhodes scholar, and an advisor to a Presidential campaign and to a Vice President; who had gone back to school at midlife and had worked for seven years successfully to complete a D Phil at Oxford University; who had been invited onto every major platform and written for every major newspaper and was a commentator on every major news network for 35 years, and who, for those decades, by those same platforms and news sites, had been identified as a global leader in the feminist movement.

These nothing people in front of me, these hacks, these people of zero cognitive distinction, these essentially trivial-minded humans, used their unearned, thuglike, intellectually meaningless power — the intellectually two-dimensional power of a social media platform — to announce to the world that I was crazy, unhinged; to present what appears to have been a file, to the BBC, to NPR, to The New York Times – to my own former colleagues — seeking to re-present me, a lifelong writer of heavily annotated bestselling nonfiction, as not credible.

For the two years subsequent to my deplatforming, news outlets — including those where I used to be a columnist, such as The Guardian and the Sunday Times of London — did not need to claim, let alone prove, that I was actually wrong in any concrete way; all they had to do now — and they did this repeatedly, clearly, as we see now, at the behest of the government involved – was to repeat the phrase replicated around the world, and embedded into posterity via my Wikipedia bio:

“Naomi Wolf was banned from Twitter for misinformation.”

“Misinformation” is never in quotes; the accurate caveat — “what Twitter called “misinformation”’ — is never added, in spite of this being the journalistically ethical and correct phrasing. This damning but really meaningless summary, then, is to what 35 years of labor, a status as a feminist leader, two degrees, eight bestsellers, thousands of footnotes, and the publication of essays in every major news site in North America, as well as most of Western Europe — got reduced.

It is incredible to me, as someone who was raised in an American meritocracy, and who has until very recently believed in American meritocracy, that a group of nonentities in Twitter, in collusion with nonentities at CDC (hi there, Carol Crawford), the White House and the US Dept. of the Census — were able thus so simply, and at such immediate, nuclear scale, to destroy the reputation of someone identified since 1990 as a major American voice.

So: this can happen to any American voice.

These ill-dressed, ill-spoken, banal careerist ciphers, cost me so much.

I re-trained for almost a decade, in the middle of my life, to teach. It is all I had ever really wanted to do with my life. Now I will never be able to be the only thing I ever wanted to be — a Professor of English Literature at a university.

I am now sixty. It’s too late for me. Twitter, in collusion with the Biden administration, cost me my hard-won lifelong dream. I’ve been maligned and censored by Twitter since 2021.

Even if the company eventually settles my lawsuit against it, and even though Mr Musk has “let” me back on the platform, that would be, this is, no victory.

Twitter has not sent an advisory to all of the news outlets around the world that depicted me, at Twitter’s own direction, as crazy, that they were wrong to have done so; there has been no press release stating that they erred, and that I was right, and that they are sorry for wrongly abusing my reputation — and for destroying women and babies. No, forever I will remain “deplatformed from Twitter for misinformation” in the cybersphere, even though it is finally being established that sadly I was deplatformed for telling God’s truth.

It is unlikely that any university at this point would see past the grotesque imprint on my bio that Twitter, via the White House, CDC and perhaps the FBI, has taken care to embed in my bio, and in articles about me, around the world. It is unlikely, too, that I will ever recoup the six figure investments that investors withdrew from my company when Twitter, colluding with the government, was orchestrating the shredding of my reputation. It is unlikely that a 35 years career and legacy online of what had been seen until very recently as a life of significant accomplishment, can ever be re-established.

I try never to complain in public. I try never to show self-pity or weakness, at least not to my enemies. But Twitter’s attacks on me are not over, and I am simply sick of the damage these mediocrities have done to me, and continue to try to do.

Just yesterday LinkedIn sent me a notification that a Twitter “Political Staffer” was viewing my bio. A notice of scrutiny by a Twitter staffer with friends in the administration reached my inbox the day before Congressional hearings about the censorship both entities imposed on people such as me.

Intimidate much, @Twitter?

I am a brave person — I guess — and I won’t be daunted by this obvious effort at harassment. But I am also human, and I happen to have a broken shoulder at the moment, and I am simply tired; tired of fighting these monsters.

And yes, it is wearying and threatening and coercive to see that this massive behemoth, with their friends at the highest levels of government, are not done messing with my own, personal, only life.

Yoel Roth is to this very minute, defending the de-platforming of people due to their having “spread COVID misinformation”; that, dear Reader, would be me. To this day, this trimly-styled nonentity defends debunked magical thinking.

To which Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene rightly responded: “Mr Roth: who put you in charge of what is true and what is not?”

Rep. Taylor Greene also said to Mr Roth:

“You abused the power of Big Tech to censor Americans. I am so glad you are censored now, and that you have lost your jobs.”

I cannot believe that “my own”people, my former tribe on the elite left, are joining forces with the government to violate the First Amendment rights of all Americans and then, worse still, to justify having done so. I can’t believe that Democrat after Democrat, liberal after liberal, is on C-Span singing the praises of censorship and inventing imaginary roles for government officials and social media platforms to keep Americans “safe” from the “threats“ of discourse and ideas. We used to be the side of Howl and Lady Chatterley’s Lover; of The Well of Loneliness. Heck, of the Free Speech Movement! What happened to us?

I can’t believe that people I thought were hostile to America’s interests — in this case, the Republicans demanding answers from the hacks and flunkies of Big Tech — are the allies in this hearing’s case at least, of truth and the Constitution and freedom of speech.

And I can’t believe that the forces who tore my life apart, temporarily half-destroyed my business, ended any hopes of my realizing my one life’s best dream, and set a match to my reputation, turn out, now that the curtain has been pulled back, as at the end of The Wizard of Oz – to be such small, small, sad, petty, miserable, mediocre people.

The larger issue is not the damage these smirking, small-minded people did to me. The larger issue is what the experience I underwent at their hands, represents for our culture.

There is a specific kind of damage that Twitter and the Biden administration did, in censoring and smearing the medical doctors — in silencing the signatories of the Great Barrington Declaration. Medical harms, medical damage, limits to medical options and open debate, follow.

But consider my example as an example of something else, that is equally serious.

I am not a medical doctor or a public health official — I am, or I was, an American writer, identified as a cultural figure. So what happened to me means that any American cultural figure can be taken down. Any American cultural movement can be mis-framed, defamed, broken. Any American writer, musician, artist, sculptor, actor, director, can be annihilated and memory-holed. Any American artistic movement can be burned alive. And remember — Twitter is an international company, and wars can be waged, culturally, against us by our adversaries.

Why should any young writer, watching what happened to me, believe in meritocracy in American culture any more — why should she work hard, aspire largely, and master her craft? Clearly keeping her head down and parroting the party line will keep her safer.

So this issue brings us squarely into the cultural climate of 1933, when books were dragged from university libraries to be burned in a pile, in Berlin: [https://www.museumoftolerance.com/education/archives-and-reference-library/online-resources/simon-wiesenthal-center-annual-volume-2/annual-2-chapter-5.html] or of 1937, when the Nazi party curated and hosted a “Degenerate Art” exhibit in Munich. [https://www.tate.org.uk/art/art-terms/d/degenerate-art] What happened to me brings us squarely into a climate in which specific American writers, artists, sculptors, musicians, social activists, can be identified as enemies of the state, or identified as culturally or socially untouchable.

“Degeneracy” in 1937 was defined essentially as that of which the Nazi party did not approve.

Today on C-Span, we heard a lot about the decision to violate Americans’ rights, based simply on sentiments of which the Biden administration, or Twitter’s employees, did not approve.

The larger issue is that once a society crosses this Rubicon, with one cultural figure, this can happen to any cultural figure or any cultural movement. And if we do not reject (and indeed prosecute and legislate against) this unlawful suppression of views at the behest of the government, then we no longer live in an American culture, in which ideas rise and gain currency on the basis of merit and on the basis of ideas’ appeals to others.

We will, rather, be in a Nazi reality in which petty officials distort and dictate culture itself and reputationally behead those cultural leaders who pose challenges to the power structure.

Berlin, Munich, in this respect, are here again, in their darkest sense; those who decided, based on a party line, on proper and improper art, books, views — are not dead and gone; lost in history; no; here they are.

But this time they appear in our America, in their bad blue suits, with their pompous nasal voices; saying “I have no knowledge of this matter”; or “I can’t hear the question”; as they occupy, with their damaged consciences, their nauseating excuses, seats in a hearing room on Capitol Hill in the United States of America.

Or will we drag America back into daylight and sunlight again, and force these equivocating wretches to face their own degenerate crimes — crimes against freedom of speech and the Constitution?

* * *

THE KING REPORT

The King Report February 13, 2023 Issue 6947Independent View of the NewsOn Sunday, the FAA closed airspace over upper Lake Michigan, northeast of Green Bay. US jets found nothing; the airspace was reopened. Less than an hour later, Canada closed airspace over Lake Huron near Tobermory, Ontario. At 15:42 ET, the USAF shot down an octagonal shaped UFO over Lake Huron (Canadian side) at 20k feet. On Saturday, a US F-22 (NORAD) shot down a UFO over the Yukon. On Friday, the USAF shot down a UFO northeast of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. (Much more on UFOs below)

The dolts that run The Big Guy’s Twitter account made an abject, tone-deaf faux pas on Sunday.

Joe Biden Tweets About ‘Big Corporations Taking Advantage of the Tax Code’ after Military Shoots Down Another Object over Lake Huron  https://t.co/r6DhIuiwQ4

The NY Times reported on Sunday that Team Biden assured the public that the downed UFOs are not extraterrestrial. “But officials acknowledged privately that the longer they are unable to provide a public explanation for the provenance of the objects, the more the speculation grows.”

@disclosetv (Sunday night): Pentagon does not know to what keeps these “objects” aloft, unknown propulsion systems. “We’re calling them objects, not balloons, for a reason,”… General VanHerck (NORAD) says that he hasn’t “ruled out anything yet” when asked whether he rules out aliens.

@disclosetv (after Gen. VanHerck’s remark): Unnamed U.S. defense official now tells Reuters that there is “no indication of aliens or extraterrestrial activity” in recent takedowns of aerial objects.

White House slaps down Chuck Schumer and says it’s TOO early to ‘categorize’ craft shot down over Alaska and Canada – after Senate Majority leader said they WERE spy balloons
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11742161/Pilots-shot-airborne-object-said-interfered-sensors.html

NBC reports that NORAD is detecting more objects now because it is employing a “wider range of radar data” since the Chinese spy balloon traversed the USA. Experts believe radar filters have been expanded.

On Friday, the BLS unobtrusively revised December, November, and October CPI, as well as Dec and Nov Core CPI, a tad higher. Headline December CPI was revised to +0.1% from -0.1%. Core CPI was revised to +0.4% from +0.3%.  https://www.bls.gov/cpi/latest-numbers.htm

U.S. consumer prices revised higher in December, November
Data for November was also revised higher to show the CPI increasing 0.2% instead of 0.1% as previously estimated. In October, the CPI rose 0.5%, revised up from the previously reported 0.4% increase…The revisions were the result of recalculated seasonal adjustment factors…
   Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.4% in December, instead of 0.3% as previously reported. Data for November was revised up to show the so-called core CPI advancing 0.3% instead of 0.2% as initially estimated. October core CPI data was unrevised…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-december-consumer-prices-revised-higher-2023-02-10/

And just like that, with the stroke of BLS’s magic pen, Powell’s start of disinflation process is gone!

@NickTimiraos: New CPI weights and seasonal adjustments changed the inflation picture slightly at the end of last year, showing somewhat less deceleration than before.  Core CPI rose at 3-month and 6-month annualized rates of 4.3% and 5.1% in December, respectively, up from 3.1% and 4.6% under the previous price profile.  https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1624154710528737280

US Revamps CPI Weightings with Likely Mixed Impact on InflationShift seen putting upward pressure on January core pricesChanges have potential to push down core inflation further outUsed cars, one of the biggest drivers of disinflation in recent months, are now s smaller part of the consumer basket. Many economists were already predicting this component to shrink at a slower pace in January… (Used car prices had a record increase of 2.5% per industry surveys!)
The shelter component, predominantly owners’ equivalent rent, now have an even bigger weighting at 34.4% of the consumer basket, up from just under 33%…

Walmart pushes back as major product suppliers ask for higher prices http://reut.rs/3HJPg3y

PBOC 3-Day Cash Injection Hits 1 Trillion Yuan (~$150B) to Ease SqueezeOvernight repo rate falls most in two weeks after injectionSqueeze caused by higher loan demand amid economic recovery  https://t.co/sy7bJEbB1s
Oil and gasoline rallied sharply on Friday after Russia said it would cut production by 500k bpd.

Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in MarchRussia to cut oil output by around 5% in MarchBrent up 2.5% after newshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-cut-oil-output-by-500000-bpd-march-2023-02-10/

University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the month of February rose to 66.4 from 64.9 in January; 65.0 was consensus.   Current Conditions jumped to 72.6 in February from 68.4 in January; 68.5 was expected. Expectations fell to 62.3 in February from 62.7; 63.1 was consensus. However, 1-year Inflation increased to 4.2% from 3.9%; 4.0% was expected.

ESHs traded modestly higher when the Nikkei opened and then staged and A-B-C decline that ended at 23:00 ET. ESHs then plodded higher until peaking 16 minutes after the 3 ET European open. After trading in a tight range for an hour, ESHs commenced a sharp decline that ended near the 8 ET US bond market opening. ESHs then jumped from a daily low of 4060.75 to a daily high of 4100.75 at 10:23 ET.

ESHs then experienced an A-B-C decline that ended at 12:16 ET. A modest Noon Balloon materialized; it became the Friday afternoon rally. ESHs hit a new daily high of 4101.50 at 13:24 ET. ESHs then retreated 19 handles. The pre-last hour rally began on schedule. The rally ended at 15:02 ET. The retreat ended at 15:25 ET. ESHs hit new highs at 15:54 ET and then retreated. The Friday afternoon rally lives!

USHs traded modestly higher during Asian trading but commenced a decline at 3:30 ET that took USHs from a high of 128 3/32 to 126 28/32 at 12:13 ET. After a modest Noon Balloon, USH rolled over and then sank to 16 26/32 at 14:12 ET. USHs then bottom bumped while trading in a tight range.

Federal deficit up 80% through first four months of fiscal year
Revenues, or the amount of money the government raised through taxes, were $1.47 trillion, or 3% lower than during the same period, October through January, last year, while spending was $1.9 trillion, or 9% higher… The U.S. borrowed $39 billion this January alone, while January last year saw a $119 billion surplus, a difference of 133%… (But Lyin’ Biden said the deficit is going down!)
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/patriotism-unity/federal-deficit-up-80-through-first-four-months-of-fiscal-year

Credit Suisse five-year credit default swaps up sharply – The cost of insuring exposure to Credit Suisse debt rose on Friday by 24 basis points (bps) from Thursday’s close to 320 bps… http://reut.rs/3YnNxrR

Positive aspects of previous session
The Friday afternoon rally before expiry week pushed the DJIA, DJUA, and S&P 500 higher
The DJIA rallied 0.50%; the DJUA jumped 1.92% (Electric utes surged)

Negative aspects of previous session
Fangs, Nasdaq, and the Naz 100 declined sharply
The DJTA declined 24.66 points
Bonds declined sharply, were -1 near the NYSE close
Oil and gasoline rallied sharply

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
It appeared that defensive asset allocation appeared early in the session

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4081.87
Previous session High/Low: 4094.36; 4060.79

@ChadPergram: GOP SC Rep Mace on Fox: I had my own vaccine injury. I’ve had tremors in my left hand and heart pain. I now have asthma… I will not be getting another COVID vaccine shot. And I have real concerns about the information that’s been shared with the American public.
   They should know the risks and we ought to have more information about vaccines before we take them and certainly before we encourage people to take them. I have regrets over getting the shot because I had COVID 19 twice, I thought I was doing the right thing. Comes to find out I got injured because of it.

Ex top QB @dannykanell: Sudden cardiac arrest is in young athletes is not normal. Why are we seeing it happen so frequently and why aren’t people asking that question??? It’s bizarre to me how we just keep carrying on like it’s no big deal.

The CDC Lied: The mRNA Wasn’t Meant to “Stay in the Arm”
Far from “staying in the arm” and entering the muscle cells at the injection site, the injection site is only the point of departure for a journey that is supposed to take the mRNA rather to the lymph nodes. The subtitle of the slide is “Bringing mRNA to the right cells at the right places.” The deltoid is not the right place; the lymph nodes are.   Once in the lymph nodes, a specific sort of cell, the dendritic cells, is supposed to manufacture the spike protein: here colorfully described as the “wanted poster” that will help the immune system to identify the SARS-CoV-2 virus in case of subsequent exposure…
   Why has the CDC been lying about this for the last two years and insisting that the mRNA “stays in the arm?” Well, the obvious answer is that the idea of the mRNA staying at the injection site is reassuring, since otherwise we could fear systemic adverse effects of precisely the sort that have emerged since rollout…  https://brownstone.org/articles/cdc-lied-mrna-not-meant-to-stay-in-arm/

@RyanAFournier: The government is paying $2,125/month in refugee benefits to refugees resettled in the United States. Meanwhile, Social Security recipients who have paid into the system their whole live receive $1,400/month on average. Will Biden ever put Americans first?

Democrats from Biden to Hochul are targeting suburban homeowners
The Biden administration announced Jan. 19 it will require all towns across America to submit “equity plans” showing how they will make it possible for low-income people to live there, by providing affordable housing, transportation and other resources. Towns that don’t meet the cookie-cutter requirement for economic diversity will lose federal funding…
https://nypost.com/2023/02/07/democrats-from-biden-to-hochul-targeting-suburban-homeowners/

Disinformation Inc: State Department bankrolls group secretly blacklisting conservative media
The Global Disinformation Index, a British organization with two affiliated U.S. nonprofit groups, is feeding blacklists to ad companies with the intent of defunding and shutting down websites peddling alleged “disinformation,” the Washington Examiner reported. This same “disinformation” group has received $330,000 from two State Department-backed entities linked to the highest levels of government, raising concerns from First Amendment lawyers and members of Congress…
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/equality-not-elitism/disinformation-group-secretly-blacklisting-right-wing-outlets-bankrolled-state-department

Microsoft suspends relationship with group blacklisting conservative news
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/technology/disinformation-inc-microsoft-xander-conservative-defunded-outlets

Sen. Rick Scott Proposes Bill to Protect Social Security and Medicare
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) announced a new bill to preserve and protect Social Security and Medicare… The proposed bill, named the Protect Our Seniors Act, would rescind funding from the Inflation Reduction Act for 87,000 new IRS agents and redirect it to the Medicare and Social Security Administration Trust Funds.  Additionally, it would create a Budget Point of Order that requires a two-thirds vote against any legislation that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) determines would reduce or cut existing Medicare and Social Security benefits…
https://www.theepochtimes.com/sen-rick-scott-proposes-bill-to-protect-social-security-and-medicare_5050470.html

US leads the rest of the world with $196 billion given to Ukraine amid war with Russia https://t.co/MS9bkGVRXz

Today – This is expiry week with an enormously impactful January CPI Report due on Tuesday. +0.5% m/m is consensus. Reputedly Carl Icahn has spent $50m on an SPY put spread that expires on Friday.

Due to Establishment coddling, notably the Bushes, Clintons, Bidens, McConnell, et al, Americans do NOT realize how big of a threat China is to the USA. Perhaps, the China spy balloons will create a Sputnik-like moment and Americans will understand China’s malevolence and the Establishment created China. The odds are skyrocketing that China will be a major issue for 2024 – not good for The Big Guy.

Instead of Sunday night the usual Sunday night rally, ESHs are -17.00 at 20:45 ET. Are ETs good for stocks on the notion that ETs will force the Fed to pivot?

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3969; 100-day MA: 3882; 150-day MA: 3936; 200-day MA: 3945
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,650; 100-day MA: 32,582; 150-day MA: 32,463; 200-day MA: 32,329

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3820.10 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4037.43 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4111.60 triggers a buy signal

Trudeau said on Sunday that the wreckage from the UFO downed on Saturday has not been found.

AP: NORAD/military has determined what the object shot down over Canada was, but has not yet released details https://t.co/D7UYwLK7Cl

@BNODesk: Object which was shot down over Canada appeared to be a “small metallic balloon with a tethered payload,” sources say – WSJ

Hours later on Saturday, Reuters: The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued a notice barring flights in an area about 50 by 50 nautical miles around Havre, Montana, near the Canadian border and classifying the area as “national defense airspace.“

@RepRosendale: I am in direct contact with NORCOM and monitoring the latest issue over Havre and the northern border. Airspace is closed due to an object that could interfere with commercial air traffic — the DOD will resume efforts to observe and ground the object in the morning. 8:23 PM Feb 11, 2023
   Airspace is reopened – I will remain in contact with defense officials and share more information as it becomes available. Montanans deserve answers. 8:53 PM · Feb 11, 2023

Dem @SenatorTester: I am aware of the object in Montana air space and remain in close contact with senior DOD and Administration officials. I am closely monitoring the situation and am receiving regular updates. I will continue to demand answers for the American public. 8:38 PM, Feb 11, 202

@LucasFoxNews: Pentagon on FAA temporary closure of airspace over part of Montana: NORAD detected a radar anomaly and sent fighter aircraft to investigate. Those aircraft did not identify any object to correlate to the radar hits. NORAD will continue to monitor the situation.
https://twitter.com/UpwardNewsHQ/status/1624594692640763905

@mikeroman: Havre, MT is the only place in lower 48 with a land antipode: the Kerguelen Islands. An antipode = exact opposite point on earth. China leases a French owned listening station on the Kerguelen Islands. Basically, sound waves at one point arrive at a second point with little deterioration. Think “whispering room” phenomenon…This means Havre, MT is literally the best place on earth to transmit radio signals to the listening station on the Kerguelen islands…
https://twitter.com/mikeroman/status/1624625207146053632?s=02

@ChadPergram: NORAD on today’s Lake Huron shootdown: Based on its flight path and data we can reasonably connect this object to the radar signal picked up over Montana, which flew in proximity to sensitive DOD sites. We did not assess it to be a kinetic military threat to anything on the ground, but assess it was a safety flight hazard and a threat due to its potential surveillance capabilities. Our team will now work to recover the object in an effort to learn more.

(Friday) Pentagon shoots down ‘high-altitude’ unidentified object over Alaska just week after fighter jets downed Chinese spy balloon – Kirby said the military successfully shot down the object over the U.S.’s territorial waters, which are currently frozen (Destroys Biden’s excuse for not shooting down China’s spy balloon when it flew over the Aleutian Islands a week or so ago.)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11737529/Pentagon-shoots-unidentified-object-Alaska.html

CNN on Friday shootdown: Some pilots said the object “interfered with their sensors” on the planes, but not all pilots reported experiencing that. Some pilots also claimed to have seen no identifiable propulsion on the object, and could not explain how it was staying in the air, despite the object cruising at an altitude of 40,000 feet.  The conflicting eyewitness accounts are partly why the Pentagon has been unable to fully explain what the object is, the source briefed on the matter said… (Joe downed ET!)
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/11/politics/unidentified-object-alaska-military-latest/index.html

Experts say green laser beams spotted off Hawaii came from Chinese satellite
https://nypost.com/2023/02/11/green-laser-beams-spotted-off-hawaii-from-chinese-satellite-experts/

@jseldin: US @DeptofDefense fighter aircraft shoots down object traveling at 40k feet over Alaska – might have posed a threat to aircraft, per US National Security Council spox John Kirby, in response to q from @pwidakuswara.   Pentagon was tracking the high-altitude object over the past 24 hours & concluded it “posed a reasonable threat to the safety of civilian flight” per Kirby. @POTUS ordered the object shot down “out of an abundance of caution” he said, over frozen US territorial waters. The shootdown of the high altitude object took place in the past hour (east of Prudhoe Bay), per Kirby.
   “I have no idea” who was flying or behind the object shot down over Alaska”, per Kirby. Adds there has NOT been any outreach to China about this new incident. Object shot down was traveling off the northeastern tip of Alaska, near Canada border and landed on water that was frozen, per Kirby.
   High altitude object shot down at 1:45pm EST Friday over northern Alaska – @USNorthernCmd
recovery operations getting under way now, per @PentagonPresSec BrigGen Patrick Ryder, with update details from @DeptofDefense. It was “about the size of a small car.”
   On the China spy balloon shot down this past Saturday off the coast of SouthCarolina – teams have “located a significant amount of debris” that will allow US to get a better sense of the balloon’s capabilities, per @PentagonPresSec.

@pwidakuswara: US does not know if it’s “state-owned” or “corporate-owned”, said Kirby. It’s much smaller than the Chinese balloon, about the size of a small car, John Kirby said to follow up qs after confirming to me that US shot down a “high altitude object.”

NBC’s Chuck Todd: “For some reason, the spokesperson, John Kirby, did not volunteer this information about fighter jets being scrambled to shoot down another object until a reporter in that room asked.” https://t.co/UkxQWehjDD

‘Object’ shot down over Alaska penetrated US airspace before being detected: US official
The official told Fox News the object was detected by the U.S. military while it was “over Alaska not far from the northern coast” on Thursday night… (But the US military is using more pronouns now!)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/object-shot-down-alaska-penetrated-us-airspace-before-being-detected-us-official

@GordonGChang: The Chinese Spy Balloon incident shows something is terribly wrong in Beijing. China’s regime could be in disarray, but in any event it is preparing for war.

Balloon Intrusion Shows China’s Regime Is Planning for War
This path suggests China is gathering intelligence for either a first or second strike on America’s nukes.  Whatever China is planning, the violation of American territorial airspace was blatant and reveals the dangerous mentality of the Chinese leadership…
https://www.newsweek.com/balloon-intrusion-shows-chinas-regime-planning-war-opinion-1779965

Wealthy Chinese ramp up efforts to shift fortunes overseas
Singapore is emerging as a hot spot for these Chinese funds… “They are concerned that as the geopolitical situation is becoming more complex, that their assets and lifestyle would no longer be safe in places like Europe, or America, or the Americas or Australia,” said Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of the Hurun Report, which tracks the wealth of Chinese entrepreneurs…   https://t.co/LJWbugPHAO

@JMichaelWaller: The president should start sanctioning CCP oligarchs’ financial interests one at a time, carefully chosen to pit faction against faction, until this incursion matter is settled to our advantage.

China mocks Biden for knocking down balloons with fighter jets: ‘Hysterical,’ ‘laughably juvenile’ https://t.co/M2W5cYcDYH

House GOP warns Biden’s policy blunders, China’s spying could worsen ‘alarming’ military recruitment crisis https://t.co/MGgs85xgRh

Biden downplays Chinese spy balloon, claims ‘not a major breach’ https://t.co/WA2Dl3g7i6

Imagine the outrage if a President Trump said that. The media would run ‘continuing coverage’ for days! Dems would have called for impeachment!

GOP @RepJimBanks: If there was ever a time when we needed a Commander in Chief who projected strength and confidence, it would now. Instead, we have a President who is too afraid to tell us what is really going on. Time for Joe Biden to show leadership or move aside.

The search for the wreckage of the Chinese spy balloon shot down in the Atlantic has been stifled by rough seas. One excuse for not shooting down the balloon over the Aleutian Islands was that recovery would be easier in the Atlantic Ocean – another Team Biden excuse bites the dust.

@hodgetwins: China is shining green lasers down to Earth from space from their satellites, this was near Hawaii. This doesn’t seem good.  https://twitter.com/hodgetwins/status/1623859484496957441

@globaltimesnews China state-affiliated media: Local maritime authorities in East China’s Shandong Province announced on Sunday that they had spotted an unidentified flying object in waters near the coastal city of Rizhao in the province and were preparing to shoot it down, reminding fishermen to be safe via messages.

@visegrad24: Chinese authorities have stated that the UFO they spotted today is flying near Yuchi Naval Base, homeport of the Liaoning aircraft carrier.

(Ex-NBC sportscaster) Michele Tafoya: NFL and other companies should ‘disentangle themselves’ from China https://t.co/QiXr6o3q6F

@JackPosobiec: Last August the Atlantic labeled the rosary an Extremist Symbol. The FBI cited this article as evidence in their targeting report on conservative Catholics.
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1624068314547855363

DOJ, FBI targeting Catholics as ‘violent extremists’ under scrutiny by state AGs: ‘Bigotry’ is ‘festering’ – GOP AGs say that a FBI field office memo targeting Catholics is ‘unconstitutional and deeply un-America… Miyares and his colleagues, in a letter exclusively obtained by Fox News Digital, told the FBI and DOJ to “desist from investigating and surveilling Americans who have done nothing more than exercise their natural and constitutional right to practice their religion in a manner of their choosing.” and asked that they “reveal to the American public the extent to which they have engaged in such activities.”…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/doj-fbi-targeting-catholics-violent-extremists-under-scrutiny-state-ags-bigotry-festering

Kate Bedingfield announced that she will depart as Biden’s White House communications director.

Emails Between Biden Lawyers and NARA From Nov 2022 Released… Lawyer References a Box of Biden Documents Stored in Boston – Gary Stern from NARA (National Archives) emailed Biden’s lawyer Patrick Moore: “Also, please ensure that the boxes in your office in Boston remain secure in a locked space and are not accessed by anyone. Thanks.”…  https://t.co/vae8fl5okV

@CollinRugg: Biden blew up the Nord Stream pipeline which led to the leak of 400,000 TONS of gas and the climate crew has nothing to say? They don’t care about the climate. They care about controlling you.

Biden’s energy secretary met with China-connected group fueling gas stove bans in US
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidens-energy-secretary-met-china-connected-group-funded-study-used-justify-gas-stove-ban

‘Boxes of documents in Boston’ latest Biden classified reveal https://t.co/4ir3do8Pu2

Secret Service puzzled by intervention in Hunter Biden gun buy, emails reveal
“Maybe we were asked as a favor?” another agent chimed in…A third responder on the thread added that “It’s kind of odd that we were involved in the missing gun investigation when neither Hunter or Joe were even receiving USSS protection at that time? Hmmm.”
    Hunter’s 2018 gun purchase is believed to be part of a years-long investigation into his personal and professional activities by the Department of Justice…   https://t.co/BsEgsLMjvC

Tucker Carlson: Self-defense is becoming illegal https://t.co/MRQaeTZfvS
Tucker revisits horrific crime stories as he argues the right to self-defense is under siege

Texas officers break up major Houston fentanyl operation; suspects released day later
Governor, lawmakers to address criminals being released on bond, tougher penalties for fentanyl
https://www.thecentersquare.com/texas/texas-officers-break-up-major-houston-fentanyl-operation-suspects-released-day-later/article_22473afc-a89f-11ed-90de-fbec4ccfdf24.html

Sen. John Fetterman remains hospitalized as doctors monitor him for signs of seizures, rule out new stroke – On the campaign trail, Republican opponent Dr. Mehmet Oz pressed Fetterman to release his medical records after his health scare, which kept the former mayor of Braddock, Pa., out of the public eye for months in the run-up to the November election…  https://t.co/YAxh73PDe9

Fetterman hears voices like the teachers in ‘Peanuts’ after stroke, struggles to adjust to Senate life
Newly elected Sen. John Fetterman has described his severe hearing disability as causing him to hear the voice of the teacher from the “Peanuts” cartoon when listening to people speak, the New York Times reported…Fetterman refuses to speak with reporters due to being unable to take their questions in echoing Senate hallways, according to his chief of staff Adam Jentleson…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fetterman-hears-voices-teachers-peanuts-after-stroke-struggles-adjust-senate-life-report

Top Fetterman Aide Says Campaign Might Have Caused Permanent Damage, Contradicts Donor Doctor’s Letter   https://dailycaller.com/2023/02/10/john-fetterman-donor-doctor-lied-health-nyt-report/

@ajzeigler: The Fetterman saga is an indictment of both political parties. Democrats should be ashamed they pressed this farce; the GOP should be ashamed they lost to this utterly unqualified individual.

‘Salacious’ allegations against Epstein associates to be unsealed: report https://t.co/zYifTCEc9y

Trump’s 40 Wall St. Put on Lender Watch as Vacancies, Costs Rise
The lower Manhattan skyscraper… has a mortgage balance of $126.5 million. The mortgage on former President Donald Trump’s tower at 40 Wall St. in Manhattan was placed on a lender watchlist because of rising vacancies and costs.  The vacancy rate at the 72-story building, Trump’s most valuable skyscraper, climbed to almost 18% as of last year’s third quarter, and expenses rose 11% since the mortgage’s 2015 origination, according to a monthly filing on the loan, which has a current balance of $126.5 million. The servicer, Wells Fargo & Co., “has reached out to the borrower for a status of leasing developments” and plans to improve the property’s performance, according to the filing…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-prized-40-wall-street-002655789.html

THIS IS WHAT FASCISM LOOKS LIKE: New York City Teachers Who Refused the COVID Jab Had Their Fingerprints and Personnel Files Sent to the Corrupt FBI  https://t.co/lqSQ2XAxSz

A horrific environmental disaster is happening in Ohio, and you may not even have heard about it
The EPA says it’s safe to return to East Palestine after a train derailment sparked a toxic chemical fire, but locals are worried about ongoing health impacts. (MSM mum cuz it hurts Joe and Buttigieg)
https://www.fastcompany.com/90848025/ohio-train-derailment-toxic-chemicals-pvc-spill-fire-disaster

Most East Palestine residents are home. But what does the future hold after the train derailment and fire?… About 50 train cars, including 10 carrying hazardous materials, derailed in a fiery crash Feb. 3…  https://archive.is/t0YW9#selection-3257.5-3257.111

VP Kamala Harris touts successes as ‘border czar’ as she returns to immigration beat with overseas investments (When there are no consequences for lying or saying stupid stuff….) https://t.co/AquLTSuCkN

Review of 2020 election continues as Texas, Pennsylvania counties find ballot total discrepancies
https://t.co/5tvuzbupFQ

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

I am repeating this important interview in case you missed it yesterday

Greg Hunter ITERVIEWING JOHN RUBINO

Global Debt & Death Spiral – John Rubino

Global Debt & Death Spiral – John Rubino

By Greg Hunter On February 11, 2023 In Market Analysis76 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Analyst and financial writer John Rubino says we’re are in a “debt and death spiral” that will force dramatic changes on the world. Rubino explains, “The debt spiral part of this means things from here continue to get worse and worse for the big currencies of the world until they die. In other words, until people lose faith in them, refuse to use them and hold them anymore until their value falls to their intrinsic value, which is zero. That manifests to hyperinflation. The value of the currency falls as opposed to the things you buy with it. . . . Things feel basically okay for a long time as long as governments could force interest rates down to really low levels. The side effects of that are massive money creation and, eventually, inflation. That’s what we are dealing with now. So, here we go. Welcome to the end game for the world’s big currencies.”

Rubino contends things have gotten so out of control that there is no stopping what is coming. Rubino says, “We are in the part of the cycle now where things just get worse, and there is nothing we can do about it. You are going to see companies that have borrowed huge amounts of money to buy back their stock, and now they see their interest costs explode. Governments around the world have the same problem, and there is nothing central banks can do about this. The next stage of this is when everybody realizes that there is no fix. Daddy is not going to come home and take care of all of this, and there is no adult supervision. The financial markets are basically on their own with so much debt that there is nothing left to do. You either have mass bankruptcies or inflate away the currencies of the world, and we’re there—finally. 2023 is going to be an amazing year . . . and we make the decision about what kind of a crisis we fall into. We have a 1930’s style deflationary depression, which is what happens if we keep raising interest rates. Or, a Weimar Germany kind of hyperinflation, which is what happens if we try to inflate our way out of our current debt problems. And that’s it. This is not something on the distant horizon anymore. It’s something right here staring us in the face.”

Rubino talks about the threat of global nuclear war and contends our extreme financial problems will seem timid if the nukes fly. In the nuclear war scenario, the global population could get cut in half with “radiation and starvation.” Rubino also talks about ways to be more resilient, and that starts with shedding as much debt as you can. It also includes food, water, cash, defensive investments and precious metals.

Rubino thinks the economy is so weak, with so many different financial bubbles, that one bubble pop could bring the entire system down rapidly. Rubino says look out for big European banks to go insolvent as a warning sign of trouble if the trillion-dollar derivative complex blows up.

There is much more in the 52-minure interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino and his new enterprise called Rubino.Substack.com for 2.11.23.

(https://usawatchdog.com/global-debt-death-spiral-john-rubino/)

After the Interview:

John Rubino is a prolific financial writer, and you can see it for free at Rubino.Substack.com. There is even more cutting-edge original information and analysis if you subscribe.

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Robert Hryniak	9:16 AM (6 minutes ago)
to

EXCHANGE: COMEX

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT: 81 NOTICES FOR 8100 OZ or 0.2519 TONNES

total notices so far: 13,013 contracts for 1,301,300 oz (40.475 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 20 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 100,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :756 for 3,780,000 oz

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Barrick’s ties to Canada dwindle as other miners secure access to country’s rich gold belt

South Sudan abandons U.S. dollar for local currency

Robert Lambourne: In January BIS gold swaps bounced up sharply from zero

Egypt says it ranks third in growth of gold reserves

On ‘Live from the Vault,’ Maguire and Macleod discuss Russia’s weaponizing gold

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-02-12 10:10Section: Daily Dispatches10:09a ET

here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0wsJ3tyaSk

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/TreasurerGold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.CPowell@GATA.org

FTX Lawyers Escalate Threats To Politicians: Return Donations Or Be Sued

Collapse of FTX

‘Timing of the Charges’

‘You Have to Be Just’

‘Donation to a Third Party’

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

Futures Rebound, Trade Near Session Highs Amid Global UFO Hullaballoon

USD bid with JPY lagging, US equity futures & USTs fairly contained pre-Bowman – Newsquawk US Market Open

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

FX

FIXED INCOME

COMMODITIES

GEOPOLITICS

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org