February 14+++a//2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $1.40 at $1854.90

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.01  to $21.87

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1864.20

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 22.01

Bitcoin morning price:, 21,872 UP 127 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $22,214 UP 342  dollars

Platinum price closing  $938.40 DOWN $20.30

Palladium price; closing 1503.15 UP 68.00

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,474.61 UP $1.98 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1523,63 DOWN 2.51 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1727.60 DOWN 3.63 euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,851.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/13/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 02/15/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

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072 C GOLDMAN 6
104 C MIZUHO 3
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 140
132 C SG AMERICAS 5
323 C HSBC 9
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 273
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 101
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 90
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 18
661 C JP MORGAN 51 383
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
709 C BARCLAYS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 3 13
880 C CITIGROUP 33
905 C ADM 4

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TOTAL: 568 568
MONTH TO DATE: 13,581

JPMORGAN STOPPED 383/568

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT:   568 NOTICES FOR 56,800  OZ  or  1.7667 TONNES

total notices so far: 13,581 contracts for 1,358,100 oz (42.243 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 53 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 265,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :809 for 4,045,000 oz

 

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD  UP $1.40

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////

INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 1 CENT

AT THE SLV// :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.302. MILLION OZ (CORRECTED

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1807 CONTRACTS TO 133,089 AND CLOSER TO THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.14 LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  FOR THE TWO MONTHS, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.14. BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2729 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (0.0 MILLION OZ. ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.775 MILLION OZ.  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A STRONG  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 650 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 265,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP OZ// NEW TOTALS STANDING = 4.155 MILLION OZ  + 1.775 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 5.93 MILLION OZ////  V)  HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  -272

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 9319 contracts:   OR 46.59  MILLION OZ . (932 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 46.59 MILLION OZ 

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       46.59/ MILLION OZ/INITIAL//

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1807 DESPITE  OUR   $0.14 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 650 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF  0.54 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 265,0000 OZ QUEUE JUMP= NEW STANDING:  4.115 MILLION  OZ  +  1.775 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING REMAINS AT   5.93 MILLION OZ   .. WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 2079 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE  LOSS IN PRICE//

 WE HAD  53  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  265,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 2778   CONTRACTS  TO 427,278 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 3153 CONTRACTS.

.

 WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 2778 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR  $9.90 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP   OF 49,200 OZ //NEW STANDING: 44.628  TONNES//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $9.90 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1428 OI CONTRACTS (4.4416 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  1350 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 427,278

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1428 CONTRACTS  WITH 2778 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1350 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1428 CONTRACTS OR 4.4416 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1350 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2778) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1428  CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 49,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP  // ///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION //4)   FAIR  SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

29,384  CONTRACTS OR 2,938,400 OZ OR 91.396 TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2938 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  91.396   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  93.396/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.62% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 93.396 TONNES/INITIAL (HEADING FOR ANOTHER STRONG ISSUANCE)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 1807 CONTRACTS OI TO  133,089 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 650 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR  650 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 438 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2079 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE  650 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 2457 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.283 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  $0.14 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.12 PTS OR 0.25%    //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 50.66 PTS OR 0.24%      /The Nikkei closed UP 175.48 PTS OR 0.64%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .18%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.8182 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8193//    /Oil DOWN TO 79.05 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.68   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2778 CONTRACTS UP TO 427,278 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.90 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1350 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  APRIL 1350 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1350   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 1428 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1350 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2778 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL  IN PRICE OF $9.90. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. TODAY THE SPEC LONGS WERE RINSED OUT!!

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:    FEB  (44.625)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL  THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES

2003:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 44.625 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $9.90)  //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1428 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI  OF 4.4416 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.219 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP   OF 49,100 OZ OR 1.5272TONNES//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 44.625 tonnes … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $9.90.  

WE HAD -3153 CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES ADDED TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1428 CONTRACTS OR 142800 OZ OR 4.4416 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 210,007// fair//

final gold volumes/yesterday  139,725/// poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //FEB 14//

//

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	86M128.797 oz JPMORGAN MANFRA Brinks Delaware 2600 kilobars  JPM 42 KILOBARS Manfra  15 kilobars: Delaware   .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	568 notice(s) 56800 OZ 1.7667 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	766 contracts    76,600 oz 2.3825 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	13,581  notices 1,358,100 42.243 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits:  0

total deposits: NIL oz

 customer withdrawals: 4

i) Out of Manfra  1350.342 oz  (42 kilobar)

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 83,592.600oz (2600). kilobars

iii) out of Delaware;  482.265 oz  (15kilobars)

iv) Out of Brinks 703.590 oz  (real withdrawal/no kilobars)

total withdrawals:  86,128.797 oz 

Adjustments;  one

dealer to customer/JPMorgan:  8140.275 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1334 contracts having gained 419  contracts. We had 81 notices

filed on Monday so we gained a huge 491 contract or an additional 49,100 oz will stand for metal at the comex  

March LOST 221 contracts to stand at 1886.

April lost 4619 contracts down to 344,813

We had 568  notice(s) filed today for 56,800 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  51  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  568  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 383 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,581 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (FEBRUARY 1334 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  568 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,434,700 OZ  OR 44.625 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   active month of January. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:

No of notices filed so far (13,581 x 100 oz+   1334 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (568)x 100 oz} which equals 1,434,700 oz standing OR 44.625 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 44.625 TONNES.  SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION. 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,812,504.867 OZ   56.37 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,026,034.754 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  11,071,681.901     (344.37 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,944,353.253 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,259,177 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 287.99 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

FEB 14/2023//INITIAL. SILVER CONTRACT FOR FEBRUARY

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,001,778.984 oz CNT HSBC Loomis Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	53 CONTRACT(S)    (265,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	22 contracts  (110,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	809 contracts  (4,045,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

Total deposits: nil oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 146.939 million oz/290.143 million =50.65% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 4

i)Out of CNT:  60,017.964  oz

iii) Out of HSBC 4994.700 oz

iii) Out of Loomis 236,627.210 oz 

iv) Out of Manfra: 700,139.110 o

Total withdrawals; 1,001,778.984 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.784MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 290.143 MILLION OZ 

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB/2023 OI:  75   CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 33  CONTRACT(S.).

WE HAD 20 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 53 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 265,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL

STAND AT THE COMEX.

March LOST 3760 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 65,323 contracts

April GAINED 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 47.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:53 for 265,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  81,564//strong  

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 61,215 contracts ( fair)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 809 x  5,000 oz = 4,045,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(75) and the number of notices served upon today 53 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month:809 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB (75 – number of notices served upon today 532) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 4.155 million oz  + PREVIOUS 1.775 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 5.93MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 902.79 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES 

FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 920.79  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1  CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//

CLOSING INVENTORY 483.302 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

When They Say The US Government Has Never Defaulted, They’re Lying

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 08:35 PM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

The fake debt ceiling fight is on and the Biden administration has ratcheted up the scare tactics. One of its strategies is to make you think the world will collapse if the US defaults on its debt obligations. After all, the US always pays its bills on time — so we’re told.

A default would certainly be problematic. But despite what you’re being told, it’s not unprecedented. The US government has defaulted before.

I call this a fake debt ceiling fight because we all know how it will end. Congress will raise the debt ceiling. It may or may not come with some modest spending cuts. But we all know that any cuts will be superficial. Actual spending will keep going up. It always does.

But right now, we have to endure the dog and pony show as Republicans and Democrats haggle.

Republicans say they want spending cuts. (One has to wonder where this urgency was when the GOP controlled both houses of Congress and the White House, but that’s a discussion for another time.) Democrats say they won’t negotiate.

And here we are.

To fortify their position, the administration tells us that raising the debt ceiling is a matter of economic life and death. As I mentioned, the mantra is the US always pays its bills on time. As Mises Institute senior editor Ryan McMaken pointed out, as part of the strategy, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is parroting the oft-repeated claim that the US has never defaulted.

This sounds compelling. We all want our government to keep its word, right?

Of course, it doesn’t keep its word and this claim that the US has always paid its bills on time since 1789 is a lie. The US has defaulted more than once. And as McMaken points out, if you expand the idea of default to include inflating away the debt in real terms, default is even more common.

McMaken highlights the most notorious instance of US government defaults.

The following was originally published by the Mises Wire. Any opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or Schiff Gold.

In 1934, the United States defaulted on the fourth Liberty Bond. The contracts between debtor and creditor on these bonds was clear. The bonds were to be payable in gold. This presented a big problem for the US, which was facing big debts into the 1930s after the First World War. As described by John Chamberlain:

By the time Franklin Roosevelt entered office in 1933, the interest payments alone were draining the treasury of gold; and because the treasury had only $4.2 billion in gold it was obvious there would be no way to pay the principal when it became due in 1938, not to mention meet expenses and other debt obligations. These other debt obligations were substantial. Ever since the 1890s the Treasury had been gold short and had financed this deficit by making new bond issues to attract gold for paying the interest of previous issues. The result was that by 1933 the total debt was $22 billion and the amount of gold needed to pay even the interest on it was soon going to be insufficient.

So how did the US government deal with this? Chamberlain notes “Roosevelt decided to default on the whole of the domestically-held debt by refusing to redeem in gold to Americans.”

Moreover, with the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, Congress devalued the dollar from $20.67 per ounce to $35 per ounce—a reduction of 40 percent. Or, put another way, the amount of gold represented by a dollar was reduced to 59 percent of its former amount.

The US offered to pay its creditors in paper dollars, but only in new, devalued dollars.1 This constituted default on these Liberty Bonds, since, as the Supreme Court noted in Perry v. United States, Congress had “regulated the value of money so as to invalidate the obligations which the Government had theretofore issued in the exercise of the power to borrow money on the credit of the United States.”

This was clearly not a case of the US making good on its debt obligations, and to claim this is not default requires the sort of hairsplitting that only the most credulous Beltway insider could embrace.

Indeed, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in their book This Time Is Different list this episode as a “default (by abrogation of the gold clause in 1933)” and as “de facto default.”

The Short Default of 1979

A second, less egregious case of default occurred in 1979. As Jason Zweig noted in 2011:

In April and May 1979, amid computer malfunctions, heavy demand from small investors and in the wake of Congressional debate over raising the debt ceiling, the U.S. failed to make timely payments on some $122 million in Treasury bills. The Treasury characterized the problem as a delay rather than as a default. While the error affected only a fraction of 1% of the U.S. debt, short-term interest rates—then around 9%—jumped 0.6 percentage point and the U.S. was promptly sued by bondholders for breach of contract.

Apparently, the United States sometimes does not pay its debts. While the 1979 default was relatively small, the 1934 default affected millions of Americans who had bought Liberty Bonds mistakenly thinking the government would make good on its promises. They were very wrong.

So, it is simply untrue that the US has never defaulted as Yellen claims. But this claim remains a useful tactic in sowing fear about “unprecedented” acts that would bring the entire US economy crashing down.

Default through Devaluation

But outright repudiation of contracts is only one way of defaulting on one’s obligations. Another is to deliberately devalue a nation’s currency—i.e., inflate it—so as to devalue the amount of debt a government owns in real terms.

And Zweig writes investors view this as a real form of avoiding one’s debt obligations:

Perhaps the biggest worry [among investors] isn’t default but … “financial repression.” In dozens of cases, governments have dug out from under burdensome debts not by refusing to pay interest but rather through other harsh means. For example, by keeping short-term interest rates below the level of inflation, a government can pay off its bondholders with cheapening money. Through regulations, it can compel banks and other financial firms to buy its own debt, much like geese being force-fed for foie gras. As a result, current yields and future inflation-adjusted returns on government bonds fall.

This strategy, Zweig concludes, “stiffs bond investors with negative returns after inflation.”

Zweig categorizes this as something separate from default, but Reinhart and Rogoff clearly consider it a form of de facto default. They write: “The combination of heightened financial repression with rises in inflation was an especially popular form of default from the 1960s to the early 1980s” (emphasis added).

(In the United States, a key event in this respect occurred in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. This was an explicit repudiation of the US’s obligation to repay dollars in gold to foreign states, and it also greatly enabled the US government in terms of financial repression and monetary inflation.)

Since the Great Recession, financial repression is popular again. This method of de facto default has enabled the federal government to take on massive amounts of new debt at rock-bottom interest rates. In real terms, the US government—or any government using this tactic—pays back its debts in devalued currency, essentially enabling the government to make good on the full extent of its debts. The cost to the public manifests in asset price inflation, goods price inflation, and a “hunt for yield” driven by a famine of income on safe assets. Americans of more modest means are those who suffer the most, and the result has been a widening gap of inequality in wealth.

It may very well be that a default could lead to significant economic and financial disruptions. But let’s stop pretending that a default is unprecedented or that the United States always pays its bills. It’s true that the US’s current debt machine, enabled through financial repression, is a form of slow-motion default. But that doesn’t make the US government any less of a deadbeat.

 

end

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

No “North Star” for a Global Economy Drifting in Unsustainable Debt

Egon von Greyerz
February 14, 2023

In this latest conversation with Elijah Johnson of Liberty & Finance, Matterhorn Asset Management principal, Matthew Piepenburg, ties together the evolving themes of debt, credit market distress, currency failures and gold pricing.

Looking first at the UST market, Piepenburg argues that Treasuries matter simply because debt matters, and debt, by every metric, has passed the Rubicon of sustainability. The obvious distortions (and recessionary signposts) within the Treasury market are made clear by the inverted yield curve and the recent declines in the USD’s relative strength as measured by the DXY.

Piepenburg maintains that the West’s sanctions against Russia in general, and the US/Fed’s strong USD policy of 2022 in particular, have backfired with staggering panache. The net result has been a clear and steady process of de-dollarization as nations turn away from the USD and the UST for a host of described reasons.

The problem in US debt markets is only compounded by the hard fact that similar weaknesses exist globally. From the EU to Japan, the BRICS to DC, there is no “North Star” nation or economy to pull markets through what is in fact a simultaneous and global debt crisis.

As debt levels and yields rise, the only solution is now a familiar one: Monetizing those debts (and “controlling” those yields/rates) with inflationary mouse-click money from a local central bank. For now, however, the Fed is tightening rather than easing, and Piepenburg explains the ironic (and dis-inflationary) consequences (and eventual pivot) of an increasingly cornered Fed.

QT or QE, Piepenburg argues that the net result is either depression or inflation, and likely both: Stagflation. Stock markets, like the Fed, offer no place to hide, as current credit and equity markets are no longer supported by repressed rates and the old tailwinds of low-rate-driven stock buy-backs and debt roll-over tricks on Wall Street.

Piepenburg then turns to Gold’s out-performance in past, present and future contexts and gives special attention to objectively bogus inflation metrics and employment data as well as the true cost of allegedly “wining a war on inflation” with creative math while simultaneously seeking negative real rates.

Piepenburg carefully discusses gold price movements, OTC price manipulations, investor mindsets and the cases made for a strong and weak USD in 2023. In the end, Piepenburg argues that gold’s direction is heading North for the simple reason that global currencies, including the USD, are trending South.

please view:

https://goldswitzerland.com/no-north-star-for-a-global-economy-drifting-in-unsustainable-debt/

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: NICKEL +

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP TO 6.8182

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8193

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.12 PTS OR 0.28%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 50.66 PTS OR 0.24% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 175.48 PTS OR 0.64%  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  102.83 Euro RISES TO 1.0759 UP 27 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 132.06/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN-//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.3735%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.139%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.383…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.176//

3j Gold at $1859.25//silver at: 21.79  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND  54/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 73.30//

3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and  85 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.42/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .500% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9177– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9873 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.681% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.758 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,85…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.472%  UP 7 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Rise Ahead Of Potential Valentine’s Day CPI Shocker

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 08:00 AM

Happy Valentine’s day, which may end up being either a massacre or a happy ending, depending on what CPI numbers the BLS releases at 830am.

US stock futures were subdued in early Tuesday trading, creeping near session highs after moving higher in a narrow range as investors held off from making big bets ahead of inflation figures that will provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Nasdaq 100 future rose 0.5% while S&P 500 futures edged 0.3% higher by 7:30 a.m. ET. Both underlying indexes surged more than 1% on Monday in the run up to the inflation data. Europe’s Stoxx50 advanced 0.5% in early European session. The yen jumped after Japan PM Kishida’s government confirmed that Kazuo Ueda would lead the BOJ, the pound climbed after UK jobs data and Treasuries rose a second day. Oil prices fell on a report that the Biden administration plans to sell more crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The dollar dropped and gold rose.

Among notable moves in premarket trading, ContextLogic surged as much as 24%, set to extend a jump on Monday following supportive comments from Citron Research about the ecommerce company. Palantir Technologies Inc. jumped after the data analysis company said it expects 2023 to be its first-ever profitable year. While analysts were positive about the profitability trend, they also noted the slowing pace of revenue growth. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Avis Budget shares gained as much as 3.3% in US premarket trading, after the vehicle rental company’s earnings exceeded analyst estimates, showing that demand for both commercial and leisure travel is holding up. Morgan Stanley analysts also pointed to a boost from lower vehicle depreciation costs.
• SolarEdge shares fall as much as 5.7% in US premarket trading, with analysts pointing to the solar equipment maker’s comments about a more cautious outlook for its US business. They expect the backlog of shipments to Europe to offset softening domestic demand.
• Fusion Pharmaceuticals climbed 39% in extended trading after the oncology company said it acquired a new drug application for an ongoing Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating 225Ac-PSMA I&T, which has the potential to treat prostate cancers.
• SkyWater Technology Inc. gained 9% in extended trading after the semiconductor manufacturer reported a narrower quarterly adjusted loss per share than analysts anticipated and revenue that topped expectations.
• Amkor Technology shares declined in extended trading on Monday after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave a forecast. The company reported earnings of 67 cents per share, compared with the consensus estimate of 70 cents.

After sinking into a bear market last year, US stocks have rallied sharply in 2023 as investors bet that a cooling in inflation would prompt the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes. Still, gains have wavered in recent days and data due later today is expected to show costs rising briskly from the prior month, suggesting the path to easing price pressures remains bumpy.  That’s why, as discussed yesterday (see full preview here), all eyes will be on the crucial US inflation data at 8:30 am. Consumer prices probably rose 0.5%, the most in three months, while core prices may have advanced 0.4%. The annual rate may have slowed for a seventh month to 6.2%. Here is a quick recap of what to expect courtesy of DB’s Jim Reid:

What better to get you in the mood for love than learning how quickly prices are rising in today’s highly anticipated US CPI print. Everything in the last few weeks has pointed to near-term upward pressure on US inflation in the early part of this year even if it eventually falls more sharply later in the year. Will markets and the Fed look through this if it happens? That’s the big question. The good news is that the market has been shaken out of its immaculate disinflation view in the last 7-8 business days with 10yr UST, Terminal (July) and Dec ’23 Fed Futures contracts up c.36bps, c.40bps and c.60bps, respectively, from its intra-day lows on February 2nd after what was interpreted as a dovish FOMC. Since then, we’ve had a very strong payrolls, the highest used car price growth for 14 months, and revisions to core CPI that showed a less aggressive disinflation path than originally reported. On the latter see more in my CoTD yesterday (link here) but 3 month annualised core CPI is now running at 4.25% rather than the 3.14% the market had imagined before Friday’s revisions.

Today’s number is also the first to see new expenditure weights that lifts OER’s importance. Given OER is expected to stay strong in the near-term before falling later in the year, this could push near-term inflation higher along with a few other things highlighted in the “The rise before the fall” chartbook from our economists last week. However, the market should be better prepared for this now that it’s more widely recognised.

In other words, expect fireworks in markets after that report as investors immediately asses what it means for the Fed’s future policy path. The stakes are even higher as, for the first time in a long time, stock and bond markets are flashing divergent signals on the economy and future Federal Reserve policy: bond markets have been cautious while stocks have been less worried. Today’s report will go a long way in determining which one is right. In addition to the inflation data, the US also reports real wages data for January. There’s also a run of Fed speakers to keep traders busy after the release, with Thomas Barkin, Lorie Logan, Patrick Harker and John Williams all appearing (more on the US calendar below).

“It feels like markets have been rather listless this week so far as we await the CPI number,” said James Athey, investment director at Abrdn. “Certainly in recent days the whisper has been getting higher and it’s rational to think that the reaction to a miss will be bigger – particularly given the recent rise in yields.”

Late on Monday, we got confirmation to another long-running rumor, namely that Joe Biden has decided to name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard as his top economic adviser, with an announcement coming as soon as Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said. The president’s selection of Brainard to replace outgoing NEC Director Brian Deese places her alongside another high-profile former Fed official, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, as a crucial player on economic policy amid the continuing battle with inflation and as Biden prepares for a likely reelection campaign.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government nominated Kazuo Ueda to helm the Bank of Japan on Tuesday. Eisuke Sakakibara, nicknamed “Mr. Yen” for his ability to influence the currency during his tenure as Japan’s vice finance minister from 1997-1999,  says that may pave the way for a rate hike by the fourth quarter.

The first quarterly decline in corporate earnings since 2020 has also hit risk demand this month. JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic said on Monday he was “turning more defensive” on stocks as they don’t yet reflect a recession. A Bank of America survey also showed most investors still believe equities are seeing a bear market rally even as they turn more optimistic about global growth.

European stocks rose ahead of the CPI data. The Stoxx 600 added 0.5%, led by outperformance in the telecom, utility and financial service sectors. Here are the most notable European movers:

• EasyJet rose as much as 4.5% in early trading after being raised to buy from sell at Deutsche Bank as broker notes an improvement in the UK’s economic outlook
• Coca-Cola HBC shares jump as much as 4.5%, the most since Aug. 11, after reporting full-year net sales that beat analyst estimates
• Vodafone shares rose as much as 4.1% after Liberty Global’s move to acquire a 4.9% stake ramps up pressure for the company to appoint a permanent CEO and deliver a business revival
• Brenntag shares rise as much as 2.8% after activist investor Engine Capital took a 1% stake in the German chemicals distributor and urged it to prioritize the separation of its specialties unit
• Norma shares surge as much as 20%, the most on record, after Bloomberg reported that the German maker of hose and pipe components has had several takeover approaches recently
• Flutter shares rise as much as 4.1% before paring gains after the gambling company said it will consult shareholders on a secondary share listing in the US
• Michelin falls as much as 2.5% after the French tiremaker provided what Deutsche Bank calls “cautious” guidance
• Delivery Hero shares fall as much as 6.6% after the German food delivery company said it will issue about €1 billion in convertible bonds to buy back securities due in 2024 and 2025
• Norsk Hydro slumps as much as 4.6% in Oslo after the aluminum producer reported worse- than-expected adjusted Ebitda for the fourth quarter
• Rockwool drops 2.5% after guidance for 2023 was much weaker than expected, with volume and price outlook “blurry,” Handelsbanken writes in a note, downgrading its three-month view to hold
• Orkla falls as much as 7.7%, the most since October, after the Norwegian retail group’s 4Q results were held back by weakness in the firm’s Branded Consumer Goods (BCG) division
• MTU Aero shares fell as much as 3.7%, after the German aerospace company reported FY22 results which were “a little light on sales”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also advanced, rebounding from the lowest in about a month, as large tech shares rose ahead of crucial US inflation figures. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.7%, with TSMC and SK Hynix among the biggest drivers. South Korea and Taiwan helped lead the charge while equities in Japan held gains as the government formally nominated Kazuo Ueda as Bank of Japan governor. Benchmarks in India also rallied close to the levels seen before the selloff in Adani Group stocks. Risk appetite in Asia was partly helped by a Federal Reserve survey showing US wage growth expectations slipped in January. The MSCI Asian stock benchmark had dipped as a months-long rebound on China reopening hopes peaked in late January and as investors tried to gauge how high US interest rates will go.

“Inflation peaked already but it’s likely to stay sticky, more sticky than perhaps what the market is pricing,” Thomas Poullaouec, head of APAC multi-asset solutions at T. Rowe Price, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “That’s why the market is getting disappointed when you see a more hawkish tone from central bankers.” US consumer-price data due later may provide the next clues on the Fed’s policy. Traders also continue to monitor the latest corporate earnings reports as well as developments in US and China relations following the recent balloon incident. 

Japanese stocks advanced, following US peers higher, as investors await US CPI data later Tuesday for signs that inflation may be cooling and for clues on the direction of monetary policy.  The Topix Index rose 0.8% to 1,993.09 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.6% to 27,602.77. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 1.3%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 1,667 rose and 420 fell, while 76 were unchanged. “Japanese stocks rose with the trend in US equities yesterday ahead of CPI data release,” said Hideyuki Suzuki, general manager at SBI Securities. “Investors are still cautious as the market might see volatility if the numbers are higher than expected.”

Australian stocks rose, the S&P/ASX 200 index higher 0.2% to close at 7,430.90, bolstered by gains in health stocks and banks.  Investors await US inflation data after a drop in wage-growth expectations eased some of the concern over rising prices. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 12,074.47

India’s benchmark stocks gauge rallied back to levels seen before a selloff in shares related to Adani Group, as investors remain bullish about earnings-growth potential in local companies despite worries over rising costs. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1% to 61,032.26 in Mumbai, its highest level since Jan. 18, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.9%. The Sensex has now recouped the losses since the Adani-connected selloff began on Jan. 25, while the Nifty is about 1% away. Recent gains in the broader market are driven by rallies in technology and consumer-staples companies, most having reported better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. Tobacco and fast-moving consumer-goods maker ITC and software exporter Infosys are among biggest contributors to Sensex’s recovery, while banks have been the worst performers. Most Asian and European markets advanced on Tuesday ahead of crucial US inflation figures. Foreign investors have continued to take money out of Indian equities this month, though the pace of selling has moderated, with global funds turning buyers for three out of eight sessions. Adani Enterprises Ltd., the flagship firm of the diversified group, gained after reporting a profit for the December quarter. Most of the conglomerate’s other listed shares continued to trade lower. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain on Tuesday, increasing 2.4%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 19 rose and 11 fell.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.2%, adding to Monday’s 0.2% fall. The greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers, where the Swedish krona was the best performer followed by the British pound and the New Zealand dollar was the worst.

• The euro rose a second day to a high of $1.0767 but remained within recent ranges. The German yield curve bull-flattened a tad while the Italian curve twist- steepened amid positioning ahead of US inflation figures
• The pound advanced 0.5% to $1.2204, its highest in more than a week, following UK labor data that showed wages rose quicker than expected by economists at the end of 2022. UK average earnings excluding bonuses were 6.7% higher in the three months through December from the previous year. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are anticipating the headline figure slowing to 6.2%
• The yen steadied, after paring an earlier advance. Japan’s bond futures gained following the government’s nomination of Kazuo Ueda to helm the BOJ on Tuesday in a move likely to pave the way for a gradual paring back of the central bank’s full-bore stimulus
• New Zealand’s dollar slumped and the nation’s bond yields declined as the nation’s falling inflation expectations prompted traders to pare rate-hike bets. The RBNZ’s two-year inflation expectations eased to 3.3% in 1Q, down from 3.62% in the three months to December, which was the highest since 1991

In rates, treasuries edged higher across the curve along with stocks as investors awaited January CPI report, with gains led by front-end of the curve as spreads unwind portion of Monday’s sharp flattening move. US yields richer by ~2bp across front-end of the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads both steeper by ~1.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.68%, outperforming bunds and gilts by 0.5bp and 4bp. Gilts underperform and bear-flatten following UK labor data that showed wages rose quicker than expected by economists at the end of 2022. US session also includes several Fed speakers.  Fed-dated OIS currently price in around 28bp of rate hikes for the March meeting and a policy peak of approximately 5.20% for the July meeting. CPI data is expected to show price pressures building because of an upswing in activity; however late options activity Monday showed a large hedge on US 5-year yields dropping to around 3.70% by Wednesday’s close.

In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI down 1.5% to trade near $78.90. Spot gold rises roughly 0.4% to trade near $1,861.

Bitcoin is firmer on the session and at the top end of USD 21.61-21.88k boundaries which are by extension well within the week’s existing parameters.

Looking to the day ahead now, the main highlight will be the US CPI release for January. Other data releases include UK unemployment for December. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, Logan, Harker and Williams, as well as the ECB’s Makhlouf. Lastly, earnings releases include Coca-Cola, Airbnb and Marriott.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,148.50
• MXAP up 0.6% to 166.21
• MXAPJ up 0.3% to 541.87
• Nikkei up 0.6% to 27,602.77
• Topix up 0.8% to 1,993.09
• Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 21,113.76
• Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,293.28
• Sensex up 1.1% to 61,069.75
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,430.86
• Kospi up 0.5% to 2,465.64
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 463.77
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.35%
• Euro up 0.3% to $1.0760
• Brent Futures down 0.7% to $86.01/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,862.42
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.39% to 102.95

Top Overnight News

1. The world is counting on an economic bounceback from China to power global growth and help keep recession at bay. Don’t bank on it. China’s recovery after years of Covid-19 lockdowns will likely look a lot different from previous ones. And for many parts of the world, economists warn, it could be less potent than governments and businesses hope. WSJ
2. Kazuo Ueda was nominated to head the BOJ, as expected, in a move that’ll probably pave the way for a gradual paring back of its full-bore stimulus. A rate hike may come by the fourth quarter, according to Eisuke Sakakibara, aka “Mr. Yen,” who sees the currency strengthening to about 120 per dollar this year. JGB traders price in an end to negative rates around mid-year. BBG
3. UK posted mixed compensation performance in Dec, w/total average weekly earnings climbing 5.9% (down from +6.5% in Nov and below the St’s +6.2% forecast) although ex-bonus compensation jumped 6.7% (up from +6.5% in Nov and ahead of the St’s +6.5% forecast). RTRS
4. CPI: street looking for headline YoY print of 6.2% (vs 6.5% prior, GIR +6.39%) and headline MoM .5% (vs .1% prior, GIR +.5%). In terms of Core YoY street expecting 5.5% (vs 5.7% prior, GIR +5.63%) and MoM of .4% (vs .4% prior, GIR .49%). Positioning has indeed turned more defensive into this print: last week the GS Prime book saw the largest net selling in 7 weeks, driven by Macro Products (index ETFs, futures, and baskets), which saw the largest short sales in nearly 5 months. In terms of S&P’s reaction function to headline YoY print I think risk is skewed to the upside as pain trade remains higher and this mkt continues to seek max pain whenever it gets a chance (yes some of this was pre traded yesterday). GS GBM
5. President Joe Biden is set to name Lael Brainard, vice-chair of the US Federal Reserve, to be his top economic adviser, bringing the central bank’s second-in-command to the White House to serve as one of Washington’s top financial policymakers. FT
6. Container shipping costs have plunged (in some cases, they’re down ~85% from their peak) thanks to a normalization of the global economy coupled w/inventory de-stocking and soft consumer demand for goods. FT
7. Crypto is coming under attack from financial regulators with agencies such as the SEC keen to sever the asset’s ties to the banking system, pushing it far to the fringes of the financial world. WSJ
8. Ford will cut 3,800 jobs across Europe, or 11 per cent of its workforce in the region, as it pares back its range of models and prepares to stop selling engine-driven cars later this decade. FT
9. TikTok is designed to collect far more personal information from the phones of users compared to other social media apps (TikTok has 2x as many “trackers” in its source code than the industry average). London Times
10. Share of companies reporting rising materials costs remains elevated but has fallen from its peak…

A More detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks eventually traded mixed with a slight positive bias following the firm handover from Wall St where the major indices gained and the Treasury curve flattened ahead of US inflation data. ASX 200 was led by tech and telecoms after similar outperformance of their US counterparts but with gains capped as an improved business survey was offset by a deterioration in consumer confidence. Nikkei 225 was marginally firmer as participants digested GDP data which showed Japan’s economy returned to growth albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, while the government nominated academic Ueda as the next BoJ Governor, as expected. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive after the PBoC’s liquidity drain and amid the current balloon-related frictions, although reports noted US Secretary of State Blinken is considering meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Wang which could provide an opportunity to diffuse the tensions.

Top Asian News

• Japan’s government nominated academic Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor, while it nominated BoJ Executive Director Shinichi Uchida and former FSA chief Ryozo Himino as Deputy Governors, as expected.
• China’s MOFCOM says China will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises, with regards to US adding Chinese firms to the export control list.
• ‘Mr. Yen’ Says Ueda May Raise Rates by October, Currency to Gain
• Singapore to Set Effective Corporate Tax Rate at 15% From 2025
• Asia Stocks Rebound as Tech Shares Gain Before US Inflation Data
• Bitcoin Performance Tops Ether After SEC Swipe Against Staking

European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, in relatively limited newsflow following a mixed APAC handover ahead of US CPI. Stateside, futures are essentially flat with an incremental positive bias pre-CPI and Fed speak, newsquawk CPI preview available here. Within Europe, sectors are all in the green with Telecom’s outperforming on the back of Vodafone while *Travel & Leisure *benefits from a Tui update and easyJet broker move. Boeing (BA) has cut its outlook for India’s commercial aviation market to circa. 2.21k planes over the next decade (prev. forecast 2.240k), via APAC MD at Aero India. Tesla (TSLA) workers a New York are said to launch a union campaign, according to Bloomberg. TSMC (TSM/2330 TT) is to increase its investment at the Arizona plant by up to USD 3.5bln, according to Bloomberg. Turkey is reportedly planning to resume stock trading on Wednesday, via Bloomberg; Reuters sources add that authorities are taking steps to reduce the market impact of the earthquake.

Top European News

• UK and EU could announce a new customs deal within the next two weeks to resolve the dispute over post-Brexit trading rules in Northern Ireland, according to The Telegraph.
• “Negotiations over the Northern Ireland protocol are in the crucial final phase with a potential deal as early as next week””, according to UK government sources cited by The Guardian.
• A Reuters poll showed about three-quarters of respondents expect the BoE to hike rates by 25bps in March and then pause. Furthermore, the median view is for the UK economy to contract in Q1, Q2 and Q3, while the economy is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2023 (prev. forecast for 0.9% contraction) and expand by 0.8% in 2024 (prev. forecast 0.8%).
• German Finance Minister Lindner says cannot back current EU Commission fiscal-rule proposals.
• Turkey is reportedly to temporarily suspend some gold imports, according to Bloomberg; Wealth Fund is to support equities with a new mechanism.

FX

• The DXY has been pushed modestly below 103.00 and resides at the lower-end of 102.90-103.26 parameters pre-CPI.
• Action which initially saw JPY outperformance and NZD underperformance, in a reversal of Monday’s direction, as Ueda’s nomination was confirmed and New Zealand declared a post-cyclone state of emergency; NZD/USD below 0.6350.
• Though, the upside in JPY has dissipated with USD/JPY at the top-end of 132.46-131.79 boundaries.
• Most recently, GBP and EUR have taken pole position amid employment data and reports of Brexit/N. Ireland progress; with Cable above 1.22 and EUR/USD surpassing 1.0750.
• Amidst this, EUR/GBP is slightly softer as GBP outpaces its single currency peer, though the EUR is besting the CHF despite firmer Swiss PPI.
• Brazil’s President Lula and Finance Minister Haddad to meet at 13:00GMT/08:00EST to discuss the possible change in the inflation target, via Estadao; on Thursday, the National Monetary Council (CMN) may debate the issue if there is a decision by the president on the subject.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8136 vs exp. 6.8138 (prev. 6.8151)

Fixed Income

• EGBs remain firmer but well off initial best with core-pressure occurring amidst the morning’s UK & Italian sales, with Gilts lagging and BTPs slightly outperforming in the aftermath.
• Specifically, Bund are holding above 136.00 but are some 40 ticks shy of best while Gilts have been an equal margin below 104.00 at worst.
• Stateside, USTs are in-fitting with EGBs but with some slim relative outperformance and thus lie closer to the top-end of 112.26+ to 113.01+ ranges with yields lower across the curve pre-CPI.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are hampered following earlier reports that the Biden admin. intends to sell 26mln more from the SPR; as such, WTI Mar and Brent Apr are below USD 79.00/bbl and USD 86.00/bbl respectively.
• UAE Energy Minister says UAE is committed to the OPEC deal lasting until end-2023; more worried about supply than demand next year.
• Russian Urals crude supplies to China increased to a 7-month high of 230k BPD in January, according to Reuters sources; ports loaded 360k BPD of Urals to vessels heading to China over February 1-10th.
• Phillips (PSX) 66 Wood River refinery (380k BPD) reports flaring and a unit upset.
• Spot gold has been moving at the whim of the USD, with the yellow metal testing USD 1850/oz to the downside, though has recuperated somewhat as the DXY loses 103.00; 50-DMA resides at USD 1857/oz.

Geopolitics

• US State Department said the US stands with the Philippines in the face of the Chinese Coast Guard’s reported use of laser devices against the crew of a Philippines Coast Guard ship on February 6th in the South China Sea. US added that China’s conduct was provocative and unsafe which resulted in the temporary blindness of crew members and that China’s dangerous operational behaviour directly threatens regional peace and stability, while it reaffirmed any attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft would invoke mutual defence commitments under their treaty, according to Reuters.
• Russian Kremlin says that NATO is an organisation that is hostile to Russia and proves its hostility every day; NATO is trying to make its involvement in the conflict ever clearer.

US Event Calendar

• 06:00: Jan. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 90.3, est. 91.0, prior 89.8
• 08:30: Jan. CPI MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -0.1%, revised 0.1%
• 08:30: Jan. CPI YoY, est. 6.2%, prior 6.5%
• 08:30: Jan. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%, revised 0.4%
• 08:30: Jan. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.5%, prior 5.7%
• 08:30: Jan. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -3.1%, revised -2.6%
• 08:30: Jan. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -1.7%, revised -1.5%

Central Bank speakers

• 09:30: Fed’s Barkin Interviewed on Bloomberg TV
• 11:00: Fed’s Logan Takes Part in a Moderated Discussion
• 11:30: Fed’s Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook
• 14:05: Fed’s Williams Gives Speech at New York Bankers Conference

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A happy Valentine’s Day to all our readers. I hope you all have your highly personal words of love ready to express to your loved one(s). If not, you can do it in a few seconds on chatGPT. A lot less effort.

What better to get you in the mood for love than learning how quickly prices are rising in today’s highly anticipated US CPI print. Everything in the last few weeks has pointed to near-term upward pressure on US inflation in the early part of this year even if it eventually falls more sharply later in the year. Will markets and the Fed look through this if it happens? That’s the big question. The good news is that the market has been shaken out of its immaculate disinflation view in the last 7-8 business days with 10yr UST, Terminal (July) and Dec ’23 Fed Futures contracts up c.36bps, c.40bps and c.60bps, respectively, from its intra-day lows on February 2nd after what was interpreted as a dovish FOMC. Since then, we’ve had a very strong payrolls, the highest used car price growth for 14 months, and revisions to core CPI that showed a less aggressive disinflation path than originally reported. On the latter see more in my CoTD yesterday (link here) but 3 month annualised core CPI is now running at 4.25% rather than the 3.14% the market had imagined before Friday’s revisions.

Today’s number is also the first to see new expenditure weights that lifts OER’s importance. Given OER is expected to stay strong in the near-term before falling later in the year, this could push near-term inflation higher along with a few other things highlighted in the “The rise before the fall” chartbook (link here) from our economists last week. However, the market should be better prepared for this now that it’s more widely recognised.

In terms of what to expect from the CPI report, our US economists are looking for headline CPI to come in at +0.42% in January. On a monthly basis, it would be the fastest monthly pace since October, but given the very strong inflation in the first half of last year, that would still see the year-on-year measure fall to 6.2%, the slowest since October 2021. For core CPI, they think it will come in at +0.36%, which would take the year-on-year measure down to 5.5%, the slowest since December 2021. However, even though the year-on-year measures would still decline, that monthly trajectory would still be too fast for the Fed to be comfortable, as +0.36% monthly core CPI translates into an annualised pace of +4.4% if it happened every month. As usual, we’ll be poring over all the components of the report and our US economist Justin Weidner will be hosting a call 30 minutes after the release (2pm London time/9am NYT). To register see the details in his preview note here.

We’ve got four Fed speakers scheduled for today, so there should be some reaction after the release from policymakers. In the meantime, however, Governor Bowman said yesterday that she expected “it will be necessary to further tighten monetary policy to bring inflation down toward our goal”. Furthermore, she added that although “there are costs and risks to tightening monetary policy to lower inflation, I see the costs and risks of allowing inflation to persist as far greater.”

Ahead of this big day, yesterday saw futures map out their most aggressive path of rate hikes to date, with pricing for the Fed’s terminal rate trading above the 5.2% mark for most of the day before closing slightly higher at 5.1925%. 2yr US yields held at around 3-month highs while yields on 2yr German debt were up +2.3bps to their highest level since 2008, and it was the same story in France and the Netherlands too. As with the Fed, that came as expectations for future ECB policy rates hit their most aggressive to date, with over +100bps of hikes now priced in by the June meeting, which if realised would take their deposit rate above 3.5%. See Mark Wall’s blog from yesterday here where he reiterated his 3.25% ECB terminal rate forecast but continued to suggest the risks are on the upside with a likely 3.25-3.75% landing zone.

However, outside of that, markets were in more upbeat mode with the S&P 500 (+1.14%) advancing and 10yr Treasury yields (-2.7bps) falling as both asset classes clawed back some of last week’s declines. There was some talk about lower inflation expectations in the NY Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. In reality, the important three-year horizon was down two-tenths to 2.7%, but five-year expectations were up a tenth to 2.5% and one-year unchanged at 5%. For three-year expectations, it’s actually their lowest since October 2020 before the current bout of high inflation began. But for five-year expectations, they’re at their highest in seven months. Markets seemed to like the report though and tech stocks were the biggest outperformers, and the NASDAQ (+1.48%) and the FANG+ index (+1.96%) saw even larger gains, aided by solid gains from Microsoft (+3.12%) and Meta (+3.03%). And over in Europe it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (+0.90%) leading a broad-based advance of its own.

The main exception to this pattern of equity gains were among energy stocks, which came amidst a fresh tumble in energy prices yesterday. For instance, natural gas futures in Europe were down -4.35% to a fresh 17-month low of €51.65 per megawatt-hour, so more positive news for European consumers, and we also saw the European Commission upgrade their Euro Area growth forecast for this year to +0.9% yesterday.

Asian equity markets are broadly positive overnight. As I type, the KOSPI (-0.87%) is leading gains across the region with the Nikkei (+0.52%) and the Hang Seng (+0.22%) also trading up. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks have reversed their opening gains with the CSI down -0.32% and the Shanghai Composite (-0.03%) trading fractionally lower. In overnight trading, US stock futures are indicating a negative start with those tied to the S&P 500 (-0.10%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.15%) inching lower ahead of the US inflation data.

Early morning data from Japan showed that the economy comfortably avoided recession by expanding +0.6% on an annualised basis for the final quarter of 2022 but lower than market expectations of +2.0%. It followed a revised contraction of -1% recorded in 3Q compared with a year ago.

Staying on Japan, the government named Kazuo Ueda as its pick to become the next BOJ Governor. According to a government document, Ueda was nominated by Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida and would succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose term ends on April 8. Following the reported nomination, the Japanese yen strengthened +0.43% to trade at 131.85 against the dollar as we go to press.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US CPI release for January. Other data releases include UK unemployment for December. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, Logan, Harker and Williams, as well as the ECB’s Makhlouf. Lastly, earnings releases include Coca-Cola, Airbnb and Marriott.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Mixed trade with Europe seen flat pre-US CPI; JPY leads G10 FX while NZD lags – Newsquawk Euro Market Open

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 01:45 AM

• APAC stocks eventually traded mixed with a slight positive bias following the firm handover from Wall St (S&P 500 +1.2%).
• European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 Unch. after the cash market closed up 1.0% yesterday.
• DXY sits in the low 103’s, EUR/USD has reclaimed 1.07 JPY leads G10 FX, NZD narrowly lags.
• UK and EU could announce a new customs deal within the next two weeks, according to The Telegraph.
• US President Biden’s administration plans to sell 26mln more crude oil barrels from the SPR.
• Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment, US CPI, OPEC MOMR, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Barkin, Harker & Logan, Supply from Italy & UK.

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks gained throughout the session with tech leading the advances ahead of Tuesday’s CPI report and amid mixed NY Fed inflation expectations, while household expectations of income growth saw a sizeable fall which provided some encouragement in the inflation fight. In addition, JPM noted that positioning in the tech and consumer discretionary sectors remained low and therefore stands to benefit from potential money inflows in the event of a dovish CPI print.
• SPX +1.15% at 4,137, NDX +1.60% at 12,502, DJI +1.11% at 34,246, RUT +1.16% at 1,941.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Biden is to name Fed’s Brainard as his top economic adviser as early as Tuesday, according to a source familiar with the matter cited by Reuters.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks eventually traded mixed with a slight positive bias following the firm handover from Wall St where the major indices gained and the Treasury curve flattened ahead of US inflation data.
• ASX 200 was led by tech and telecoms after similar outperformance of their US counterparts but with gains capped as an improved business survey was offset by a deterioration in consumer confidence.
• Nikkei 225 was marginally firmer as participants digested GDP data which showed Japan’s economy returned to growth albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, while the government nominated academic Ueda as the next BoJ Governor, as expected.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive after the PBoC’s liquidity drain and amid the current balloon-related frictions, although reports noted US Secretary of State Blinken is considering meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Wang which could provide an opportunity to diffuse the tensions.
• US equity futures (ES -0.1%) took a breather after yesterday’s rally as markets await the CPI data.
• European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 Unch. after the cash market closed up 1.0% yesterday.

FX

• DXY was contained ahead of the incoming US CPI data and following the pressure during US hours; traded within a tight 103.10-26 range overnight.
• EUR/USD edged slightly higher to extend on recent gains after having reclaimed the 1.0700 handle and with the European Commission now expecting the eurozone to avoid a technical recession.
• GBP/USD remained afloat after benefitting from the softer dollar and risk bias but with further gains limited by resistance at 1.2150 and after a recent poll showed around three-quarters of respondents were expecting the BoE to slow its pace of rate hikes to 25bps in March and then pause thereafter.
• USD/JPY gradually pulled back after the prior day’s advances and with the government’s BoJ nominations doing little to spur price action as the announcement was widely telegraphed beforehand,
• Antipodeans were lacklustre with underperformance in NZD after softer 2yr Inflation Expectations.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8136 vs exp. 6.8138 (prev. 6.8151)

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures were marginally firmer after the prior day’s flattening heading into the US inflation data and after some encouraging signs from the somewhat mixed NY Fed inflation expectations survey.
• Bund futures edged higher but remained within yesterday’s ranges after the price swings on both sides of the 136.00 level and with improved forecasts for the eurozone to avert a recession.
• 10yr JGB futures kept afloat after the GDP data miss and the government’s BoJ nomination announcement, while the BoJ offered JPY 1tln of five-year loans against collateral to banks.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were pressured following the news that the US was planning a further SPR release.
• US President Biden’s administration plans to sell 26mln more crude oil barrels from the SPR, with deliveries estimated between April and June after Congress’ approval, according to Bloomberg.
• Spot gold benefitted from a lacklustre dollar.
• Copper futures were steady amid the slightly positive bias risk tone in Asia.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin remained subdued but with the downside stemmed by a floor around 21,700.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Japan’s government nominated academic Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor, while it nominated BoJ Executive Director Shinichi Uchida and former FSA chief Ryozo Himino as Deputy Governors, as expected.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese GDP QQ (Q4) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.2%, Rev. -0.3%)
• Japanese GDP QQ Annualised (Q4) 0.6% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. -0.8%, Rev. -1.0%)
• Japanese Real GDP YY (2022) 1.1% (Prev. 2.1%)
• Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Feb) 78.5 (Prev. 84.3)
• Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence MM (Feb) -6.9% (Prev. 5.0%)
• Australian NAB Business Confidence (Jan) 6 (Prev. -1.0)
• Australian NAB Business Conditions (Jan) 18 (Prev. 12.0)
• New Zealand Inflation Forecast 1 Year (Q1) Q1 5.11% (Prev. 5.08%)
• New Zealand Inflation Forecast 2 Years (Q1) Q1 3.30% (Prev. 3.60%)

GEOPOLITICS

• Top US and Chinese diplomats are contemplating the first meeting since the spy balloon situation with US Secretary of State Blinken considering meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a security conference later this week, according to Bloomberg.
• US Department of Defense Spokesperson Kirby said they have determined that China has a high-altitude balloon programme for intelligence gathering and that the programme has provided limited additional intelligence to China.
• US State Department said the US stands with the Philippines in the face of the Chinese Coast Guard’s reported use of laser devices against the crew of a Philippines Coast Guard ship on February 6th in the South China Sea. US added that China’s conduct was provocative and unsafe which resulted in the temporary blindness of crew members and that China’s dangerous operational behaviour directly threatens regional peace and stability, while it reaffirmed any attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft would invoke mutual defence commitments under their treaty, according to Reuters.

EU/UK

• UK and EU could announce a new customs deal within the next two weeks to resolve the dispute over post-Brexit trading rules in Northern Ireland, according to The Telegraph.
• A Reuters poll showed about three-quarters of respondents expect the BoE to hike rates by 25bps in March and then pause. Furthermore, the median view is for the UK economy to contract in Q1, Q2 and Q3, while the economy is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2023 (prev. forecast for 0.9% contraction) and expand by 0.8% in 2024 (prev. forecast 0.8%).

1.c TUESDAY/  MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.12 PTS OR 0.25%    //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 50.66 PTS OR 0.24%      /The Nikkei closed UP 175.48 PTS OR 0.64%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .18%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.8182 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8193//    /Oil DOWN TO 79.05 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.68   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/

end

3c CHINA /

CHINA

China Raises Upper Age Limits for Military Reservists Amid Increased Tension Over Taiwan Strait

Robert Hryniak	12:42 PM (46 minutes ago)
to

Still think the boys in the band are not preparing for war?
The Ukrainians do best by hunting young boys aged 14 and up at gunpoint having run out of older folk still able to fight at age 65.
Everyone is now starting to do this. The hard question is where the guns will come from, because spears and axes will not do well. As the Ukraine caper demonstrates not only are guns in short supply but ammo of all types is scarce. The deadbeat bunch of fools has no clue of what is needed to create and maintain a supply chain for modern war. It takes money, time, production knowledge and understanding lacking in the western countries.
In Ukraine the Russians daily shoot 60,000 artillery shells 7 days a week. This does not factor various missiles launched on a as needed basis or aircraft missile and bomb deliveries. At it’s peak the Ukrainians could do up to 10,000 which quickly dropped to 6,000 and now as dropped to perhaps as little as 3,000. As actual artillery pieces are being destroyed faster than any capacity to supply. And this includes all of NATO. All the while, while Russia has yet to cross the 15% level of deployment of assets. And yes, there are Chinese observers taking notes, amongst others.
So if this is a test run, the West has failed and a regrouping and real effort to secure supply lines will take many a year. And effort to throw in a Polish twist will result in an escalation of new weapons that kill faster but will not accomplish much but supply chain issues persist.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-raises-military-reserve-age-limits-amid-increased-tension-over-taiwan-strait_5052091.html

END

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

FRANCE/EUROPE USA/RUSSIA// UKRAINE

French Historian: World War III Has Already Begun

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News.,

A French historian who accurately predicted the fall of the Soviet Union over a decade in advance says that World War III has already begun as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.

The comments were made by Emmanuel Todd, one of France’s leading intellectuals, during an interview with the Le Figaro newspaper.

“It is evident that the conflict, initially a limited territorial war, has evolved into a global economic confrontation between the whole West on one side, and Russia, backed by China, on the other. It has become a world war,” Todd said.

Todd added that “the resistance of the Russian economy is pushing the U.S. imperial system toward the abyss” and that Biden must “hurry” to rescue a “fragile” America.

According to the historian, U.S. control of the world financial system is at risk because the Russian economy’s resistance to sanctions is pushing “the American imperial system” toward the precipice,” with Russia still able to rely on China for monetary backing.

Todd says America “cannot withdraw from the conflict, they cannot let go,” because it has no exit strategy and the stakes are too high.

“This is why we are now in an endless war, in a confrontation whose outcome must be the collapse of one or the other,” said the intellectual.

Todd is a widely respected figure, having accurately predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union 14 years before it happened.

As we highlighted last month, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church cautioned that any attempt to “destroy Russia” by “madmen” trying to impose their values will lead to “the end of the world.”

“We pray to the Lord so that he enlightens those madmen and helps them understand that any desire to destroy Russia will mean the end of the world,” said Patriarch Kirill.

Elon Musk also recently warned that “most are oblivious to the danger” of a new global conflict.

Donald Trump also recently cautioned, “We’re on the brink of World War 3,” and in a campaign video last week asserted, “If I were president, the Russia Ukraine war would never have happened … never in a million years.”

END

EUROPE

Europe has spent 792 billion euros to shield citizens from the energy crisis

(City AM/Oil Price.com)

Europe Has Spent €792 Billion To Shield Citizens From Energy Crisis

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 06:30 AM

Authored by City AM, submitted by OilPrice.com,

European countries have forked out over £700bn (€792bn) to shield businesses and households from soaring gas prices since the start of the energy crisis, according to the latest research from Bruegel.

The think tank has calculated that since September 2021, the EU has now earmarked or spent €681bn in energy crisis spending, while the UK has allocated €103bn and Norway just over €8bn.

Germany was by far the biggest spender, splashing out nearly €270bn since September 2021.

The figures mark a sharp increase since the last report three months ago when Bruegel calculated a €706bn total, as countries grappled with a challenging winter with Russia cutting off gas supplies to Europe last year.

Russia reduced flows significantly from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and halted flows into multiple countries.

Bruegel urged governments to shift towards more targeted support, prioritising lower income levels as countries start running out of fiscal space to maintain such broad funding.

Funding has chiefly focused on non-targeted measures such as VAT cuts on petrol or retail power price caps.

However, the think-tank argued that dynamic needed to change over the coming months.

END

EUROPE/TANKER RATES

wow! tanker rates in Europe has soared by over 400% after Russian sanctions

(zerohedge)

Tanker Rates To Haul Gasoline Soar 400% After Russian Sanctions

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 06:55 AM

Clean product tanker rates soared last week after the European Union and G-7 nations targeted Russia’s petroleum sales. Restrictions on Russian crude exports began in early December. The sanctions have been a ploy by Western countries to limit Russian crude and crude product exports, though it’s definitely not working. 

Sanctions have redirected Russian energy flows from Europe to Asia. The rejiggering of supply chains means Russia has to rely more on tankers. According to Bloomberg, this has led to a 400% surge in the daily rates for clean product tankers. 

The latest data from the Baltic Exchange in London shows clean product tankers rates have reached $55,857 per day, surging 58% just last Thursday. 

According to trading giant Trafigura, Russia relies on a “shadow fleet” of tankers to move crude and crude products. The trading firm said the fleet is about 600 ships. 

Bloomberg said the surge in tanker rates has been “spurred in part by a bifurcation of the fleet with some tankers serving Moscow’s interests and others the international market. It highlights a possible flipside of aggressive measures aimed at limiting Russia’s petroleum revenues.” 

“Russian volumes continue to flow at more or less the same rate and that takes up a lot of ships.”

“Ultimately, the spike shows demand is pretty good, and the fundamentals are strong,” Lars Bastian Ostereng, an analyst at Arctic Securities. 

About 400 tankers, or 20% of the global fleet, recently “switched” from hauling fuels for traditional countries to carrying Russian petroleum products, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock said in a recent Bloomberg interview. That has reduced the number of tankers for traditional routes and is leading to the skyrocketing cost of freight. 

Bloomberg pointed out that surging rates aren’t entirely because of the tanker “switch.” It’s also due to more crude flowing by water following Western sanctions on Russia. Much of those energy exports are now being sent to Asia. 

“We see no indication that Russia will have to cut back its exports of crude or refined products,” said David Wech, chief economist of Vortexa, during a presentation late last week.

Furthermore, crude prices have edged over $86 a barrel following last Friday’s announcement that Russia will reduce crude oil production by 500,000 barrels per day. This is in response to Western price caps on purchasing Russian fuel.

END 

CREDIT SUISSE/SWITZERLAND

Rogue Ex-Credit Suisse Staffer “Inappropriately” Took Salary Data

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 02:41 PM

Credit Suisse Group AG notified its workforce about a ‘rogue’ employee, who has since left the Swiss bank, stole personal data, including salaries and bonuses, of other employees. 

Recruitment company eFinancialCareers first reported the former employee stole personal data years ago. At the time, the staffer had legitimate access to employee data and transferred it to a personal device in breach of company policies. 

eFinancialCareers provided a snippet of the email that went out to employees:

“An individual employee, who has since left the firm and had legitimate access to your personal data at the time of their daily work, inappropriately copied this information without Credit Suisse authorization onto their personal device.”

The email outlined that “salary and variable compensation” data between 2013-15 was taken. Also, bank account information to pay bonuses and salaries was copied onto the personal device. 

The Swiss bank first discovered the issue in March 2021. “There is no evidence that the data has been used maliciously or forwarded to other individuals,” eFinancialCareers said. 

Credit Suisse released this statement about the incident:

“Credit Suisse has recently addressed a data security incident that involved information relating to a number of Credit Suisse personnel. This data was moved some years ago by a former employee, with legitimate systems access, to their personal device – in breach of Credit Suisse policies and procedures. Having investigated it thoroughly, we have taken and are continuing to take steps – including legal remedies – to adequately contain the incident. To date, there is no evidence of any onward transmission or intent to use the data in any way.”

A former director at the bank told eFinancialCareers that employees are concerned about their data being compromised. The person added: “it’s more bad news” for the bank embroiled in scandals and experienced a “staggering” bank run in 2022.  

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/USA/UKRAINE

a must watch!!

WARNING: The designer war in Ukraine is rapidly escalating – The Expose

Robert Hryniak	9:45 AM (7 minutes ago)
to

He gets correctly, we are sleep walking into a nuclear exchange led by fools.

WARNING: The designer war in Ukraine is rapidly escalating

END

/RUSSIA//MOLDOVA

Moldovan Airspace Closed On Reports Of Drone Breach As Russia Rejects Coup Accusations

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 11:05 AM

Air Moldova announced through its social media accounts Tuesday the country’s airspace has been temporarily closed, with some flights being canceled.

“We are waiting for the resumption of flights. Today’s schedule will undergo changes,” the company wrote without giving details. Moldovan media outlets have meanwhile said the country’s airspace had been breached by one or more drones earlier in the day, which would make the second significant airspace breach in under a week, after a Russian cruise missile fired from the Black Sea briefly briefly entered Moldovan air space days ago.

Some reports have indicated “a large number of drones” were observed near Chisinau airport in what could possibly be spillover from the neighboring war in Ukraine.

Just as these reports emerged of an unknown UAV breach, the Kremlin issued a statement angrily rejecting the Moldovan president’s Monday allegations that Russia is plotting to overthrow the pro-EU government and replace it with a Russia-friendly one.

President Maia Sandu had described an elaborate plan by Russian intelligence to destabilize and collapse the government using color revolution-style tactics. She claimed that Kremlin agents are preparing to flood the country with Russian, Belarusian and Serbian agents provocateurs to steer protests and unrest in order to “change the legitimate government to an illegal government controlled by the Russian Federation.”

On Tuesday Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called Sandu’s claims “absolutely unfounded and unsubstantiated.”

“They are built in the spirit of classical techniques that are often used by the United States, other Western countries and Ukraine,” Zakharova said, pointing the finger back at the West for itself utilizing color revolution strategies in Eastern Europe.

“First, accusations are made with reference to purportedly classified intelligence information that cannot be verified, and then they are used to justify their own illegal actions.”

All of this has put intense pressure on the Chișinău government. Moldova was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, but the deeply impoverished nation is believed to have a long way to go, and its struggling energy sector was recently bailed out by Western donors.

Not only does Moldova border Ukraine, but its breakaway Transnistria region has long had a Russian troop presence. Last week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was the first to issue a specific claim that there’s an active Russian intelligence plot “for the destruction of Moldova”. 

While not a NATO country, and unlikely to ever be one, NATO has of late pledged a deepened ‘partnership’ with it’s pro-EU leadership. 

END

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

“World’s First” Unvaccinated Dating Service Launches In Hawaii

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 11:15 PM

Authored by Allen Stein via The Epoch Times,

Nowadays, online dating seems less a game of hit or miss than medical truth or dare, given the deal-breaker question, “Are you vaccinated?”

Businesswomen Shelby Thomson and Heather Pyle of Maui, Hawaii, found the online dating game a frustrating experience for the un-jabbed at the height of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in 2021.

Faced with discrimination and censorship, many unvaccinated people lost jobs and relationships because they chose to remain unvaccinated. The un-jabbed “didn’t have the option to say they were unvaccinated” to potential online dating partners, Thomson said.

A health worker draws out Moderna vaccine during a drive-through COVID-19 vaccine clinic at St. Lawrence College in Kingston, Ont., on Jan. 2, 2022. (The Canadian Press/Lars Hagberg)

“They were only allowed to be vaccinated. And you had to have this badge in your [online] profile.”

Too often, the unvaccinated would hear on dating sites, “Swipe left”—move on.

In May 2021, the two business partners, moms, and best friends launched “Unjected,” a dating app for the unvaccinated, on the Google and Apple stores.

“We started seeing people wanting to find partners,” Thomson said of their unvaccinated friends.

However, soon after the app’s launch, Thomson and Pyle started receiving hate emails, then negative publicity in the media. Apple decided to remove “Unjected” from the app store, claiming it provided medical disinformation.

“We tailored everything and played this chess game until it [met] Apple standards,” Thomson recalled. But it still wasn’t enough.

“It took us until July 31 to get banned.”

When Google threatened to follow suit, Thomson and Pyle pulled the plug on both media giants, and Unjected.com went live using the web domain host GoDaddy in August 2021.

“We decided—OK—the big-tech world is not our friend. They don’t want us to exist in this realm. They’ll always go out of their way to ensure we’re censored or taken down.”

Thomson said “Unjected” is more than a dating service for the unvaccinated. It’s also a blood bank database and a fertility bank for the unvaccinated.

The dating service alone boasts 110,000 subscriptions in 85 countries and 3,000 to 5,000 new clientele every month, Thomson said.

Pandemic of Censorship

“Unjected was founded to help us easier connect in a world of medical discrimination and censorship,” according to Unjected’s online introduction.

“We all have a lot in common when it comes to being conscious about our choices, and we think that there are great connections to be made when like-minded people gather in the same social space.”

Thomson said 2021 was the fastest-growing year for the new dating site because so many unvaccinated people had lost their jobs in the pandemic.

“The [vaccine] mandates were heavily enforced. Now, we’re seeing the trend differently. People are starting to realize things they didn’t before,” Thomson said.

…

Ironically, “Unjected” clients include conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats, and many others concerned about the safety of mRNA vaccines.

“It’s such a melting pot—also politically speaking, it’s authentic people coming together,” Thomson said. “We have 70-year-old grandmas looking for friends. Many members said they used to be die-hard liberals.”

Like everything else, Thomson said it’s about making choices free of coercion.

…

Read more here…

end

GLOBAL ISSUES;/GLOBAL ECONOMIES

 DR PAUL ALEXANDER/DR PANDA\

One graph of EXCESS deaths in Germany 2020, 2021 & 2022; this one graph tells many stories on the insanity across the last 3 years & what the COVID gene injection shot did with deaths post shots

graph shows how closely each COVID shot in Germany (& the graphs in all high vaccinated nations track same) matches accompanying deaths & how in 2022, when virus & vaxx is down, excess deaths are up

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 13

SAVE▷  LISTEN

We can talk for days on this one graph and I invite you to put on your epidemiological caps and interpret the graph, just say what you see and share with us, we will all learn. Note I did not share the 2020 portion of data yet, it is coming in another stack yet the 2020 data show that excess mortality is not elevated and that observed and expected track similar, point being that while there were deaths in 2020, it was at that time virus linked and deaths due to the lockdowns and how people were being treated in the medical system. I continue to argue that most deaths were due to treatment in health care facilities. Yet set that aside, lets look at 2021 and 2022 when vaccine and boosters were rolled out (remember, shots were rolled out in February or so of 2021).

END

Hat tip to Premier Danielle Smith for rejecting a vaccine digital ID in response to the COVID madness Jason Kenney caused in Alberta; hat tip & we want you Danielle to kick the media in the nads

Time to stand up Danielle, no games with the fraud putrid fecal feral banal bottom-dweller media, these are Neanderthalic animals, do not play with them, rather punish them! I do! Let me help you!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 14

SAVE▷  LISTEN

Punish them, call them out, the fraud filths they are, always were. Canadian media is among the very worst!

There you go, there you go, Danielle is showing us some of those stones we know she has and we are proud for this stance, you are indeed protecting Canadians from the COVID lockdown lunacy that harmed and killed so many. Harmed our children life-long and someone has got to pay.

Huge praise for Dr. William Makis for his stones and standing tall. For Dr. Francis Christian for balls like churchbells, for Dr. Charles Hoffe for his massive gonads as they stand up and wage for Canadians. These people, like me, were smeared and cancelled. For Dr. Patrick Phillips. For the guru himself, Dr. Roger Hodkinson who to me should get the Order of Canada for what he has withstood and how much he has helped. Huge love to all Canadians who are waging and especially the best of them all, the Canadian trucker who inspired the world. With the US trucker to tell it’s governments take your unsound, illogical, specious and unscientific vaccine mandate and shove it up your arse! Huge love for the likes of Bob Blayone of Alberta for his leadership.

We fight on to prevent Johnny and Suzie from dropping dead at 15 on the soccer field. ‘Dying at dawn’ as you rise and ‘dying suddenly’ on the soccer field and even pilots in the plane cockpit is a real dangerous issue with ‘silent’ myocarditis. Parents, demand myocarditis is ruled out of your child before they ever take the field again if they got the shot. Demand high-sensitivity troponin tests, demand gadolinium contrast chest MRI to rule out myocarditis.

Remember Danielle, we want commissions, tribunals, real legal hearings, we want these beasts in Alberta government, Ontario’s, all in Canada Federal and all over, as in US, Australia and UK and New Zealand etc. to face investigation, as are all the academic scientists and medical doctors, the Colleges of Physicians and Surgeons, those criminals in the CPSO etc., no matter how many, who worked to harm Canadians, deny early treatment, deny natural immunity, force lockdowns that killed, force the COVID protocol in hospitals (sedation, isolation, Remdesivir, ventilation) that killed our parents and grand-parents and this failed ineffective deadly vaccine with the unscientific mandates; for all they did wrong, we investigate and praise them if shown they were right, we celebrate them and I will be first to hug them; but if it is shown their actions costed lives, that they killed people by their actions, then we clean them out financially, we imprison as many as we could, and if judges, not you, not I, but judges say the death penalty must be on the table, then be put it on the table and we hang’em high, but only as per judges arising out of proper legal inquiries.

SOURCE:

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/alberta-becomes-second-canadian-province-to-reject-national-healthcare-digital-id/?utm_source=daily-canada-2023-02-14&utm_medium=email

end

DR PANDA..

Marburg Outbreak in Africa

The World Health Organization called for an urgent meeting to discuss the vaccine and therapeutic candidates for the newly identified Marburg virus outbreak in central Africa

DR PANDAFEB 14

SAVE▷  LISTEN

The World Health Organization called for an urgent meeting to discuss the vaccine and therapeutic candidates for the newly identified Marburg virus outbreak in central Africa.

Yesterday the WHO confirmed the recently identified hemorrhagic fever cases in Equatorial Guinea as Marburg fever. While only one positive test has been reported, there are 16 suspected cases, with 9 deaths.

WHO African Region @WHOAFRO

Today, #EquatorialGuinea  confirmed its first-ever outbreak of #Marburg virus. Preliminary tests carried out following the deaths of at least 9 people in the country’s western Kie Ntem Province turned out positive for the viral haemorrhagic fever  ow.ly/t9w650MR4iM

6:23 PM ∙ Feb 13, 2023

---

216Likes162Retweets

On August 2021, the WHO was notified of a confirmed case of Marburg virus (MARV) in Guinea which raised alarms about a possible outbreak. This led the WHO to call for the rapid development of MARV vaccines. Now they are ready to test the efficacy of the vaccine. Conveniently there is a current active outbreak.

In 2020, under the cover of all of the COVID-19 news, Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar issued a new notice of declaration under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act to provide immunity for activities related to ‘countermeasures’ against Marburg virus and/or Marburg Disease. Just like the COVID-19 vaccines.

The NIH has already completed a Phase 1 human trial on 40 deathly adults given the investigational Marburg vaccine in 2022.

---

---

What is Marburg?

Marburg virus is a highly infectious and often fatal virus in humans belonging to the Filoviridae, which also includes the Ebola virus. Marburg disease is an extremely virulent illness that leads to hemorrhagic fever and has an approximate case fatality rate of 88%.

How is it transmitted?

Marburg can spread between humans in close environments and through direct contact. Humans can become infected with Marburg virus through contact with infected animals, such as bats and primates, or through direct contact with bodily fluids of infected individuals, such as blood, saliva, vomit, urine, and feces. Infection can also occur through contact with contaminated objects, such as needles and medical equipment. The virus can be transmitted between humans through close contact with blood, bodily fluids, or tissues of infected individuals.

Since the discovery of Marburg virus in 1967, there have been several outbreaks of Marburg virus disease reported in different parts of the world, mostly in Africa. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there have been a total of 12 outbreaks of Marburg virus disease reported as of 2021. The outbreaks have been relatively small, with the largest one occurring in Angola in 2005, which resulted in 374 cases and 329 deaths.

What is particularly troubling about Marburg is the incubation period which ranges from 2 to 21 days, with the average being 5 to 10 days. During this period, an infected person may not have any symptoms, but they can still transmit the virus to others.

Be Informed but no need to worry. Marburg virus has the potential to cause outbreaks but the likelihood of a pandemic is extremely low.

END

Frequent COVID-19 booster shots could adversely affect (decrease) the immune response and can be caused by several factors such as N1-methylpseudouridine, the spike protein, lipid nanoparticles,

antibody-dependent enhancement, and the original antigenic stimulus.

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 14

SAVE▷  LISTEN

SOURCE:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35659687/

‘According to European Medicines Agency recommendations, frequent COVID-19 booster shots could adversely affect the immune response and may not be feasible. The decrease in immunity can be caused by several factors such as N1-methylpseudouridine, the spike protein, lipid nanoparticles, antibody-dependent enhancement, and the original antigenic stimulus. These clinical alterations may explain the association reported between COVID-19 vaccination and shingles.

As a safety measure, further booster vaccinations should be discontinued. In addition, the date of vaccination should be recorded in the medical record of patients. Several practical measures to prevent a decrease in immunity have been reported. These include limiting the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, including acetaminophen to maintain deep body temperature, appropriate use of antibiotics, smoking cessation, stress control, and limiting the use of lipid emulsions, including propofol, which may cause perioperative immunosuppression. In conclusion, COVID-19 vaccination is a major risk factor for infections in critically ill patients.’

end

US Congressional hearings are getting hot, see this exchange with US House Representative Nancy Mace & Twitter executives who worked to cancel me & Wolf & McCullough, Atlas, Malone, Bhattacharya etc.

see minute 1.30 but view this short twitter video!!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 14

SAVE▷  LISTEN

Matt Clark @MattClarkReport

HOLY $H!T… The former Twitter executives are F***ED, and so is the FBI. Rep. Nancy Mace may have just single-handedly sent them all to GITMO! #TwitterFiles#FBI#NancyMace

7:53 PM ∙ Feb 10, 202321,365Likes12,496Retweets

Canada again, Ontario under Doug Ford’s COVID death government! Devastating ruling! OUR WORK CONTINUES as Ontario’s top court overturned a decision made by a superior court last year that ruled in

favour of a mother who didn’t want her two children to receive the COVID-19 vaccines due to concerns over adverse effects; now father decides who is for the vaccine in near zero risk children!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 13

SAVE▷  LISTEN

‘The mother was contesting a motion brought forward by her ex-husband on Jan. 25, 2022, that asked for a court order that both children—aged 10 and 12 at the time—get injected with the vaccines followed by “all recommended” booster shots. The children had said they did not want to be vaccinated.

The ruling by the Court of Appeal on Feb. 3 means that the decision of Superior Court Justice Alex Pazaratz last February is now set aside, and that the father is granted the “sole decision-making authority” with respect to the two children’s vaccination against the virus.’

END

Deaths are surging in young persons, middle aged persons & now we see in elderly persons, yet COVID is DONE, virus is mild not causing deaths, lockdowns are DONE (largely); it’s the vaccine, stupid!!

It’s the vaccine, stupid, it’s the vaccine! The vaccine is the rate limiting step & CDC, NIH, FDA, Pfizer etc. know as long as they keep injecting with a non-neutralizing shot, variants emerge

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 14

SAVE▷  LISTEN

It is the COVID gene injection mRNA and DNA that is causing the deaths. What else do you need to see to grasp that?

This is a cash cow for Pfizer and Moderna etc. and a means to exert control and power over the society; I mean think about this, you have a vaccine that keeps the variants coming and thus the pandemic will not end for 100 years!

end

Molnupiravir (Lageviro) antiviral treatment lead to the rapid accrual of hundreds of SARS-CoV-2 mutations; study demonstrates that Molnupiravir can ‘supercharge’ viral evolution potentially generating

new variants and prolonging the pandemic; all patients treated with the drug accrued new mutations in the spike protein of the virus, including non-synonymous mutations that altered the amino acid seq

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 14

SAVE▷  LISTEN

SOURCE:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.21.22283811v1

‘used a case-control approach to monitor SARS-CoV-2 genomes through time in nine immunocompromised -patients with five treated with Molnupiravir. Within days of treatment, we detected a large number of low-frequency mutations in patients and that these new mutations could persist and, in some cases, were fixed in the virus population.

All patients treated with the drug accrued new mutations in the spike protein of the virus, including non-synonymous mutations that altered the amino acid sequence. Our study demonstrates that this commonly used antiviral can ‘supercharge’ viral evolution in immunocompromised patients, potentially generating new variants and prolonging the pandemic.’

This, along with the mutations driven by the gene injection.

Catastrophic Public Health Emergency in Canada! ‘Five Canadian teenagers ages 17-19 died suddenly in their sleep in the past month’; teens do not just die in their sleep & suddenly! Dr. William Makis

Nordic nations such as Sweden have stopped these COVID shots in young persons; why has Canada continued when it is all risk & no benefit? Makis shares this stunning turn of events in Canada

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 13

SAVE▷  LISTEN

Dr. William Makis, MD shares this stunning turn of events in Canada in teens due and linked direct to the COVID gene injection, mRNA & they all died in their sleep, ages 17 to 19 years, 2 that died were from Alberta (see his substack below).

These teen boys died and their deaths occurred when?

1. On February 6, 2023, 17 year old William Caron-Cabrera (Laval, QC) died in his sleep following a cardiac arrest (click here).
2. On February 4, 2023, 17 year old Tyree Rogers (Chestermere, AB) died in his sleep (click here).
3. On January 11, 2023, 17 year old Noah Bouzane (Paradise, NL) died in his sleep (click here).
4. On January 6, 2023, 19 year old Jayden Lopez (Edmonton, AB) died in his sleep (click here)
5. On December 30, 2022, 18 year old Theo James Gibbs (Regina, SK) died in his sleep (click here)’

Makis shared this critical table and I invite you to read his substack on this story below. I also embed my prior substack on William Caron-Cabrera’s death in his sleep and the questions relating to the COVID vaccine.

Dr. Makis reported:

‘All deaths occurred suddenly and unexpectedly during sleep:

’

I applaud Makis’s stance:

end 

17 year old Quebec football player (William Caron-Cabrera) dies suddenly in his sleep; Dying at dawn in your sleep, dying on the sports field both due to catecholamine surge (dopamine, adrenaline)

17 year old Quebec football player (William Caron-Cabrera) dies suddenly in sleep, cardiac arrest! SOURCE:Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber…

Read more

VACCINE INJURY/

VACCINE IMPACT

we believe that the earthquake came from a HAARP energy weapon:

Are “UFO” Sightings Preparing the Public for Energy Weapons of Mass Destruction as Happened in Turkey & Syria?

February 13, 2023 3:48 pm

For the past week I have had readers email me information suggesting that the earthquake in Turkey and Syria was not natural, but the result of some kind of energy weapon. I have seen enough video footage of strange sightings in the sky just prior to the earthquake to give this theory some attention. Some are suggesting that this energy weapon of mass destruction is based on HAARP (High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program), and there are also now video clips circulating in the alternative media alleging that HAARP has been responsible for other disasters and earthquakes. As this theory has picked up traction for the past few days, others are now beginning to link what may have happened in Turkey and Syria to the sudden rash of corporate media reports about unidentified flying objects (UFOs) being shot down here in the U.S. and Canada, and now sources in China are alleging the same thing is happening in China. Are these UFO sightings preparing the public for more military deployments of energy weapons of mass destruction that will then be blamed on “invading aliens”? I put together a video presenting all the data and opinions. Examine the data for yourself, and research everything yourself, and then come to your own conclusions.

Read More…

---

“Get The Hell Out Of There” – Ohio’s Apocalyptic Chemical Disaster Rages On

February 13, 2023 4:14 pm

While the US government is dispensing millions of dollars in resources to treat balloons as an existential crisis, a small town in Ohio finds itself engulfed in what actually looks like the apocalypse. Perhaps by design, all of the drama surrounding violations of US airspace by Chinese spy initiatives has done well to keep what is becoming one of the worst environmental disasters in recent memory from getting any headlines. The chaos began early last week when a train of more than 100 cars derailed in East Palestine, Ohio near the state’s border with Pennsylvania with roughly 5,000 residents. The accident launched fifty of those hundred freight cars from the tracks. Twenty of the freight cars on the train were carrying hazardous materials, ten of which were detailed. While the accident had no fatalities, of those ten cars, five contained pressurized vinyl chloride, a highly flammable carcinogenic gas. “The risks of catastrophic liquefied natural gas releases in accidents is too great not to have operational controls in place before large blocks of tank cars and unit trains proliferate,” the National Transportation Safety Board wrote in a comment… In response to that comment, critics of the rule highlighted how a potential explosion of just twenty-two tank cards filled with liquefied natural gas holds the same amount of explosive energy as the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in the waning days of the Second World War. The magnitude of this story has been seemingly scrubbed from the public view as national media outlets continue to run sensationalist headlines about issues that look innocuous in comparison. It is an instance of history being rewritten in real time, setting a precedent that would allow victims of other widespread devastation to be swept under the rug. However, the scenes of the horror engulfing this small town in America’s heartland may prove to make this disaster impossible to ignore.

Read More…

end

SLAY NEWS//

The latest reports from Slay NewsBill Gates Pushes Disturbing Plan to Fight ‘Digital Misinformation’Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates is pushing a disturbing dystopian plan to fight so-called “digital misinformation” and “political polarization” online.READ MORE5 Canadian Teens Died Suddenly in Sleep in Past MonthFive Canadian teenagers have tragically died suddenly in their sleep during the past month, according to reports.READ MOREElon Musk Fears His Starlink Could Be Misused to Trigger ‘WW3’SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has said he fears that his rocket company’s Starlink satellite Internet system could be misused in a way that could “lead to WW3.”READ MORELeBron James Gets Booed at Super BowlNBA star LeBron James was booed by fans at the Super Bowl last night.READ MOREElon Musk Sets Don Lemon Straight for Complaining He Sat with Rupert Murdoch at Super BowlTwitter CEO Elon Musk was spotted hanging out with Fox News founder Rupert Murdoch during the Super Bowl on Sunday.READ MOREAOC Trashes Super Bowl Ad about JesusRadical Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has taken to social media to trash a Super Bowl advertisement about Jesus.READ MOREKlaus Schwab to Address Global Elites at World Government SummitWorld Economic Forum (WEF) founder Klaus Schwab is joining the World Government Summit (WGS) 2023 in Dubai to deliver the keynote address to global elites.READ MORENORAD Commander Throws Curve Ball, Doesn’t Rule Out Aliens after Military Shoots Down Multiple UFOsThe commander of the United States Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) has refused to rule out the possibility that the “unidentified objects” flying over North America are “aliens or extraterrestrials.”READ MOREWashington Post’s Smear Attack against Hispanic GOP Rep BackfiresThe Washington Post has been humiliated after launching a failed smear attack against Hispanic GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL).READ MOREChris Stapleton’s Powerful Rendition of National Anthem at Super Bowl Goes ViralPatriotic Americans have been flocking to social media to praise country star Chris Stapleton’s powerful rendition of the National Anthem at Super Bowl LVII on Sunday.READ MOREU.S on ‘Heightened Alert’ after ‘Unidentified Object’ Shot Down over Lake HuronThe United States military is currently in a state of “heightened alert” after the U.S. Air Force shot down an “unidentified object” from the skies above Lake Huron on Sunday.READ MOREJim Jordan Met with Backlash for Declaring ‘Only Americans Should Vote in American Elections’Republican Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) has been met with a fierce backlash from angry leftists online for making comments about America’s elections.READ MOREMarjorie Taylor Greene Says She Grilled Biden Officials for Waiting to Shoot Down Chinese Spy Balloon: ‘Biggest Bunch of Bullsh*t’Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) revealed that she grilled Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration officials during a classified briefing about the Chinese spy balloon.READ MORE

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

China Set To Sign Another Massive LNG Deal With Qatar

MONDAY, FEB 13, 2023 – 10:35 PM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the largest gas importer in the country, is in the late stages of finalizing a huge long-term LNG import deal with Qatar, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Monday.

This would be a second such massive agreement of a Chinese energy giant with QatarEnergy in just a few months.  

“CNPC has agreed on the major terms with Qatar in a deal that will be very similar to Sinopec’s,” a Beijing-based state energy official told Reuters.

In November, Qatar’s state firm QatarEnergy signed the longest-term contract in the history of the LNG industry in a deal to supply LNG to Chinese state energy giant Sinopec for 27 years.

QatarEnergy will supply China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) with 4 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG to China from the North Field East (NFE) expansion project.

“This is the first long-term SPA from the NFE project to be announced, and marks the longest gas supply agreement in the history of the LNG industry,” Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs and President and CEO of QatarEnergy, said at the time.

The QatarEnergy-Sinopec agreement was also the first long-term LNG offtake agreement from the NFE Expansion project. Qatar’s North Field East and North Field South (NFS) projects are expected to come online in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Now CNPC is reportedly finalizing a similar deal with the Qatari state energy firm to buy LNG from the North Field expansion project.

A major deal for China with Qatar, a large LNG exporter, comes at a time when Chinese-U.S. relations are at a low point again. The U.S. is a major LNG exporter competing with Qatar and Australia to be the world’s number-one LNG seller.

A huge long-term deal with Qatar would also give China more contracted supply to reduce exposure to the volatile spot LNG prices.  

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

Brazil

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0759  UP  .0029

USA/ YEN 132.06 DOWN 0.280/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2207  UP   0.0057

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 9.12 PTS OR 0.25% 

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 50.66 PTS OR 0.24% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.18%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED  DOWN 50.66 PTS OR 0.24%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.12 PTS OR 0.25% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .18% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 175.48 PTS OR 0.64%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1858.00

silver:$21.75

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 102.83 DOWN 42  BASIS POINTS from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.284% UP 7  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.500% UP 0 AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.452%// UP 6  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.198 UP 2   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.443UP 7 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0716 DOWN 0.0015 or  15 basis points//

USA/Japan: 132.89  UP 0.542 OR YEN DOWN 54  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2153  UP.0004 OR 4 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0031 OR 31 BASIS pts  to 1.3364

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.8269) 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8390

TURKISH LIRA:  18.84  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.500…VERY DANGEREOUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7  IN basis points from MONDAY at  3.787% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.833 UP 5 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.30 UP 5  BASIS PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 25.80 PTS OR  0.32%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 42.95POINTS OR 0.28%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 36.02PTS OR 0.60% 

Spain IBEX  UP 72.50POINTS OR 0.79%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  UP 126.09 PTS OR  0.48%

WTI Oil price 79.03  12: EST

Brent Oil:  85.29 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   DOWN TO:  73.80/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 2/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.443

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.550 UP 13 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0741  UP 0.0009    OR 9 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2176 UP   .0027  or  27 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.553% UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 133.03  UP 0.694////YEN  DOWN 69 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3337 UP .0001 (CDN dollar, DOWN  1 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 79.17

Brent OIL:  85.60

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 3.757% 

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 3.797% 

USA dollar index:103.11 DOWN 14  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.84

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  73.80  UP  0 AND  3/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 156.66 PTS OR 0.46% 

NASDAQ 100 UP 88.57 PTS OR 0.31%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.71 DOWN 1.63 PTS (8.01)%

GLD: $172.61 UP 0.15 OR 0.087%

SLV/ $20.12 DOWN 0.08 OR 0.40%

end)

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Big-Tech Bounces But Bonds Un-Loved As CPI Breaks Hearts Of Fed ‘Pivot’ Fanboys

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 04:01 PM

The ‘Pivot’ narrative is officially dead…

Source: Bloomberg

As hotter than expected Payrolls and and today’s CPI sent rate-trajectory expectations soaring with the terminal rate at 5.30% (25bps hike odds: 100% Mar, 85% May, 65% Jun) and only 13bps of rate-cuts now priced in for H2 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Love was definitely not in the air for markets early today as Goldman noted:

“Risk assets have spent recent weeks in a market friendly environment characterized by improving prospects for an economic soft landing in the US, better growth news in Europe and China, and a Fed that continued to decelerate the pace of tightening. While in-line, the CPI release is a reminder that the move lower in inflation towards the Fed’s target may be more gradual than markets may have begun to price in… And this environment may also result in a higher-for-longer rate environment — somewhat counter to a market that is still pricing in a Fed funds rate cut later this year.”

FedSpeak began soon after the CPI print and didn’t help…

0935ET Richmond Fed’s Barkin Expects Inflation To Have “Lot More Persistence” Than Everyone Wants, Sees Case For Leaving Fed Rates Higher For Longer

1100ET Dallas Fed’s Logan Says More Hikes May Be Needed Than Previously Seen

Then at 1300ET Philly Fed’s Harker Says ‘We Are Not Done Yet’, But Fed Moving Closer To Having Rates Restrictive Enough which triggered the algos to panic-buy (we note that stocks rallied on a kneejerk that Fed is “likely close” to done on tightening – even though he clarified the time-frame for ‘close’ was ‘this year’ and ‘we will hold rates in place’)

At around 1400ET, JPMorgan’s CFO Jeremy Barnum warned that Q1 invesment banking revenue will be down 20% YoY, with the Q1 central case for markets “a little worse” which took the shine off the Harker bounce.

This was not helped by New York Fed’s Williams at 1405ET, Saying “Our Work Is Not Yet Done”, Fed Still Has A Ways To Go To Control Inflation Levels; Says Inflation Is Far Too High, Will Take Several Years To Get Inflation Back To 2%.

And tomorrow we have retail sales (which whisper numbers suggest could come in hot) which could break a few more (bullish) hearts.

Consensus around the January retail sales centers on a rise of 2% from -1.1% in the December, according to a Bloomberg survey. Risks may be to the upside after Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan today said consumers remain resilient amid inflation. And the firm’s latest spending data show credit and debit card spending per household rose 5.1% year-over-year in January, versus a 2.2% climb in December.

And then the recession-frontrunning algos engaged. Nasdaq ended near the highs of the day while The Dow lagged with the S&P and Small Caps ending around unch

There were 5 efforts to ignite a squeeze today…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course that was all helped by the 0DTE mania and TSLA was a perfect example of that today as it reversed from ugliness after CPI to ending up over 7%…

We wonder if all that delta-squeeze energy was used up today and tanks will be empty for tomorrow’s retail sales print.

To understand how stocks are soaring as monetary policy expectations surge hawkishly, here’s the Tl;dr:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1625581881935683600&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fbig-tech-bounce-no-love-bonds-cpi-wrecks-dreams-fed-pivot&sessionId=784471148fa314d618bfcc1f9cfa825caac18ef6&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=aaf4084522e3a%3A1674595607486&width=550px

Since the last DOTS (in December), the market has adjusted massively from dramatically more dovish than The Fed to in-line now for the end of 2023. It remains more dovish for the end of 2024 still…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields soared across the curve with the short-end significantly underperforming (2Y +10bps, 30Y +3bps).NOTE the weakness in bonds stalled at the European close…

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that the yield curve (2s10s) is now below -86bps – the most inverted since October 1981…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended the day practically unchanged after utter chaos around the CPI print and its aftermath…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged back above $22,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the day marginally higher after bouncing back from some serious intraday volatility…

Oil prices ended lower but WTI was well off its puke lows, after news of SPR releases was confirmed and hawkish CPI raised demand fears…

Finally, the last time stocks (S&P) were this expensive relative to (2Y) bonds was around March 2001…

Source: Bloomberg

And things did not go so well for stocks after that. Maybe, ahead of tomorrow’s Retail Sales, there is an alternative after all.

EARLY MORNING TRADING//CPI

CPI rises for the 32 nd straight month and a little hotter than expected at 6.4% year over year. However we have to keep in find the lagging effect on shelter which is already down significantly

(zerohedge)

Core CPI Rises 32nd Straight Month, Headline Inflation Hotter Than Expected YoY Driven By Lagging Shelter

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 08:37 AM

As a reminder, CPI revisions hit Friday – rewriting the entire last twelve months higher by an average of around 0.1% per month – so while the trend going into today’s much-anticipated CPI is The Fed’s friend, we are further away from their target before we see today’s print.

And so, after rising 0.1% MoM last month (up from the initial -0.1% print), consensus was for a reaccleration to +0.5% MoM in January and that is what it printed, prompting a hotter than expected +6.4% YoY CPI print (+6.2% exp)…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI was expected to rise 0.4% MoM and printed in line – the 32nd month in a row of rising Core CPI

Source: Bloomberg

Breaking it down, the index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase.

The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent. The energy index increased 2.0 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes rose over the month. The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, and airline fares were among those that decreased over the month.

Finally, the rise in Americans’ cost of living outpaced their income gains for the 22nd month in a row (down 1.5% YoY)…

Source: Bloomberg

Just don’t forget the economy is “strong as hell”.

end

Midmorning trading:

Stocks & Bonds Sink Despite ‘Improvement’ In Powell’s Preferred Inflation Print

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 09:16 AM

While the headline and core CPI printed in line with expectations, Core services CPI, excluding shelter – a measure Fed Chairman Powell has highlighted – has cooled on a year-over-year basis. Powell has also flagged housing services as a segment of the economy with disinflation in the pipeline, as long as rents keep coming down. Housing activity has weakened with the jump in mortgage rates. S&P 500 futures briefly turned red before recovering and continuing to climb

Source: Bloomberg

Theoretically, that should have eased concerns about a more hawkish tilt, helping risk assets… but it didn’t…

Stocks whipped around but are trending down into the cash open for now…

With rate-trajectory expectations surging back hawkishly, with the terminal rate now nearing 5.25% and less than one rate-cut priced-in for H2 2023…

Specifically, the odds of 25bps hikes in May and June have jumped to 82% and 59% respectively…

Treasury yields are leaking higher led by the short-end…

As BMO notes, the kneejerk rally was a result of the unrounded core figure, and we’ve seen 10s selloff with 2s/10s down to -86bps…

“From here, there is today’s Fedspeak with which to contend, and we don’t think there is anything contained within this read to call into question the FOMC’s hawkish commitment.”

The dollar is rising now but has been whipping around since the print…

Oil prices are sinking on the potential for a more hawkish Fed…

Finally, we warn that the cash open could change everything as SpotGamma notes today’s 0DTE ATM straddle (ref 4145) was trading $67 ahead of the print with an IV of 36% which is a reduction vs previous CPI-day IV’s.

This implied traders were pricing in a ~1.5% move for today. Overall we think there is less chance of a +1.5% upside move vs a +1.5% downside  move.

This is because hedging resistance should build to the upside due to positive gamma, while under 4100 there is likely more negative  gamma.  With CPI printing in line, SpotGamma expects a reduction in implied volatility and markets testing the 4200 Call Wall as cash opens.

With that in mind, if markets push higher today into tomorrow, that shifts the balance of Fridays OPEX to a call weighted expiration, which may generate market weakness/consolidation into early next week.

4100 remains our gamma flip level, which is where our market view shifts from bullish (above) to bearish (below). Therefore a break of 4100 should invoke dealer shorting and a test of 4000 into Friday.

end

LATE AFTERNOON TRADING//GRAPH FORM//CLOSING

END

ii) USA DATA

END

iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS

The Layoffs Continue: Ford To Cut 3,800 Workers In Europe

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 10:25 AM

While the country gushes over recent aberrant jobs numbers, the actual reality of what’s happening on the ground can be best exemplified through the actions of companies like Ford. 

The Detroit automaker announced this week it is going to be cutting 3,800 jobs in Europe over the next three years, adding to a growing slate of U.S. based companies and manufacturers looking to cut jobs and tighten budgets as the economy continues to tumble toward recession.  

Ford is blaming the layoffs on “economic headwinds and increased competition in electric vehicles,” according to Reuters/Business Today. 

Specifically, 2,300 jobs are going to be cut in Germany and 1,300 jobs will be cut in the United Kingdom. Ford’s plans of offering an all-electric fleet in Europe by 2035 remains unchanged, the report says. 

The company will begin producing its first European-built electric vehicle this year, the report says. 

The company is seeking a “leaner, more competitive cost structure in Europe”. In sum, the company is looking to cut 2,800 engineering jobs and 1,000 administrative roles by 2025 the report says. 

Martin Sander, the general manager of Ford Model e in Europe commented: “These are difficult decisions, not taken lightly. We recognize the uncertainty it creates for our team, and I assure them we will be offering them our full support in the months ahead.”

Recall we wrote days ago that layoffs would be imminent for Ford. Two weeks ago, during Ford’s earnings call, CEOO Jim Farley said the company needs to reduce costs while shifting to electric vehicles. He added that Ford should have done a better job last year and left $2 billion in profits on the table while semiconductor shortages roiled its supply chain. 

CFO John Lawler also said there would be more white-collar layoffs and that the company needs to reduce manufacturing and warranty costs. 

Why so many derailments?

(zerohedge)

Two More Trains Derail Across US After Ohio Catastrophe

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 08:25 AM

About ten days after a train carrying vinyl chloride derailed and exploded, releasing dangerous chemicals into the air and water near the Ohio-Pennsylvania border, two more trains derailed on Monday alone. 

Early Monday morning in East Texas, an 18-wheeler collided with a train. The truck was dragged half a mile down the tracks. The ‘accident’ derailed 21 cars operated by Union Pacific.

When first responders arrived at the scene, the truck driver was dead, according to Splendora Police Department. The police department said the train was carrying hazardous materials though the crash didn’t rupture any tanks. 

BREAKING: Officials are now responding to another deadly train derailment near Houston, TX. Over 16 rail cars carrying “hazardous materials” crashed.

First Ohio, then South Carolina, and now Texas.
pic.twitter.com/uFXu1p50a8— Antonio Sabato Jr (@AntonioSabatoJr) February 14, 2023

Then later in the day in Enoree, South Carolina, another train derailed. 

Another Train derailment in Enoree, South Carolina.
Note: Multiple sources are now reporting a total of three (3) Train derailments within a short period of time in the United States of America  pic.twitter.com/c08SoiyCze— For God And Country Nigeria  (@TheShehus) February 14, 2023

The derailments come ten days after a 150-car Norfolk Southern freight train derailed in the town of East Palestine. Of the cars, 20 carried hazardous materials that caused a massive fire and released toxic chemicals. 

THREAD: Photos, videos, and news reports about the train derailment and toxic chemical release in East Palestine, Ohio.

This may be the largest environmental disaster in U.S. history.

 pic.twitter.com/0qgtdpN7fQ— kanekoa.substack.com (@KanekoaTheGreat) February 13, 2023

Newsweek noted a startling trend of more than a dozen reported rail wrecks across the US since the year started. 

“The Palestine wreck is the tip of the iceberg and a red flag,” Ron Kaminkow, an Amtrak locomotive engineer and former Norfolk Southern freight engineer, told The Guardian. He’s also the secretary for the Railroad Workers United, a non-profit labor group that coordinates with the nation’s rail unions. 

The series of derailments is a wake-up call about the nation’s rail workforce having dwindled as railroads focus on profits rather than safety, Kaminkow noted. 

He warned: “If something is not done, then it’s going to get worse, and the next derailment could be cataclysmic.” 

And by the way, one estimate shows about 25 million Americans live in an oil train blast zone. 

Also, why did it take Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg ten days to finally comment on the disaster in East Palestine? 

Pete Buttigieg after train derailments in East Palestine, Ohio, Houston, Texas, and Enoree, South Carolina. pic.twitter.com/hCK1zCvVtC— Kevin Dalton (@TheKevinDalton) February 13, 2023

***

end

 3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//

Buttigieg Breaks Silence On Ohio Train Derailment As NTSB Cites ‘Wheel Bearing Failure’

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 01:41 PM

Update (1345ET): The NTSB has said in a Tuesday statement that “investigators have identified and examined the rail car that initiated the derailment,” adding “Surveillance video from a residence showed what appears to be a wheel bearing in the final stage of overheat failure moments before the derailment.“

The agency says it will publish a preliminary report on the incident in two weeks, as it is still examining evidence from the train and cars.

NTSB investigators have identified and examined the rail car that initiated the derailment. Surveillance video from a residence showed what appears to be a wheel bearing in the final stage of overheat failure moments before the derailment. The wheelset from the suspected railcar has been collected as evidence for metallurgical examination. The suspected overheated wheel bearing has been collected and will be examined by engineers from the NTSB Materials Laboratory in Washington, D.C.

The tank cars are currently being decontaminated. Once the process is complete, NTSB investigators will return to Ohio to complete a thorough examination of the tank cars.

The vinyl chloride tank car top fittings, including the relief valves, were removed and secured in a locked intermodal container pending an NTSB examination. Once the fittings are examined by NTSB investigators, they will be shipped to Texas for testing, which will be conducted under the direction of the NTSB.

According to the press release, the NTSB has obtained “locomotive event recorder data, forward- and inward-facing image recording data and wayside defect detector data.”

*  *  *

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has broken his silence on the disastrous derailment of a train in Ohio that released a toxic chemical, sparking health concerns.

The fiery crash in East Palestine, Ohio, on Feb. 3 involved about 50 cars, with some carrying hazardous materials, including the highly flammable chemical vinyl chloride.

The dangerous toxin was released into the air from five of the derailed cars before crews ignited it to get rid of the highly flammable chemical in a controlled fashion.

Area residents were evacuated because of the health risks from the fumes, though they have since been allowed back to their homes.

So far, there have been reports from local residents of animals dying off, including fish, chickens, and livestock.

Few federal officials have made public statements regarding the derailment and the toxic fire, and Buttigieg did not reference the incident during a Feb. 13 appearance at the National Association of Counties Legislative Conference in Washington.

‘Actively Engaged’

During the on-stage discussion, Buttigieg touched on topics like racial disparity and mentioned the safety risks of “balloons,” drawing laughs from the audience. But his avoidance of the topic of the derailment and the toxic chemical release didn’t go over well on social media, where critics complained that he seemed to be dodging the subject.

Buttigieg broke his silence following the criticism, posting on Twitter a series of statements.

“I continue to be concerned about the impacts of the Feb 3 train derailment near East Palestine, OH, and the effects on families in the ten days since their lives were upended through no fault of their own,” he said in a post on Twitter.

He made reference to an investigation into the accident being conducted by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), noting that the Department of Transportation (DOT) was assisting with the probe.

“Our Federal Rail Administration and Pipelines and Hazardous Materials teams were onsite within hours of the initial incident and continue to be actively engaged,” he said.

“We will look to these investigation results & based on them, use all relevant authorities to ensure accountability and continue to support safety,” Buttigieg continued.

As The American Prospect also reports, in a private Facebook group, East Palestine residents have shared anecdotes of continued lung irritation, headaches, and more.

Over the weekend, several residents posted images of their children suffering from rashes spread along their arms and faces. Others have described their homes as covered in residue, even after cleaning services were hired, suggesting that despite the notice that it was safe to return, residue from the accident remains in the air. Inside the group, they are urging each other to keep meticulous documentation for any future action against Norfolk Southern…

…Against this backdrop, a blighted landscape remains.

Advocacy groups have urged residents to call upon Gov. DeWine to request an emergency declaration from President Biden. At time of publication, an emergency has not been declared, leaving residents alone to attempt piecing their lives back together.

Meanwhile, a West Virginia water utility has enhanced its water treatment process as a precaution following the derailment.

West Virginia American Water said Sunday that there hasn’t been any change in raw water at its Ohio River intake.

“The health and safety of our customers is a priority, and there are currently no drinking water advisories in place for customers,” the company said in a statement.

It added that it is planning to install a secondary intake on the Guyandotte River in case there’s a need to switch to an alternate water source.

Read more here…

”

USA COVID//

SWAMP STORIES

A sudden narrative shift as the Pentagon now admits that the mystery objects were probably private craft not tied to spying

(zerohedge)

In Sudden Narrative Shift, Pentagon Admits Mystery Objects ‘Probably’ Private Craft Not Tied To Spying

TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 12:41 PM

Edward Snowden called it (and so did we)… just a day ago, as we reported: NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden says the hysteria over UFOs being shot down over America and Canada is a distraction from Seymour Hersh’s story about the U.S. being responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines.

Less than 24 hours later, on Tuesday, Bloomberg reports that “The US government has assessed that three unidentified objects downed since last Friday were likely for commercial use and not foreign intelligence gathering.”

A 24/7 hyped news cycle, with breathless US defense official press briefings and reporters asking about aliens and UFOs, and just like that… the public is casually informed they were probably just “balloons tied to some commercial or benign purpose.”

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday: “Given what we’ve been able to ascertain thus far, the intelligence community’s considering, again, as a leading explanation, that these could just be balloons tied to some commercial or benign purpose.”

Additionally, coming off the alleged Chinese ‘spy’ balloon shootdown off South Carolina on Feb.4 – which started this sensational trend of Pentagon jets taking potshots at floating unknown small objects in skies over North America with Sidewinder missiles that cost the taxpaying public $400,000 a pop, Kirby admitted: 

“We haven’t seen any indication or anything that points specifically to the idea that these three objects were part of the People’s Republic of China’s spy balloon program, or that they were definitively involved in external intelligence collection efforts,” Kirby said.

And what’s more, with the “China balloon threat” new read scare over American skies narrative now apparently being walked back, the Pentagon says it may never know with certainty, as Axios reports further of Kirby’s briefing: 

• Asked whether there was a possibility that the debris would never be recovered, Kirby acknowledged that it was a “difficult question” but said, “we’re taking this day by day and doing the best we can to try to locate the debris and then develop a plan to recover it.”
• “We haven’t seen any indication or anything that points specifically to the idea that these three objects were part of the People’s Republic of China’s spy balloon program, or that they were definitively involved in external intelligence collection efforts,” Kirby said.
• The objects did not appear to have been operated by the U.S. government, per Kirby.

He also underscored that no individual or entity has yet come forward to identify themselves as owners or operators of the objects.

But the Pentagon has stuck by its assertions that the objects remained a threat to civilian aviation and so had to be dealt with.

All of this raises an important question: maybe China was right all along?

THE KING REPORT

The King Report February 14, 2023 Issue 6948Independent View of the NewsUnited States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately “U.S. citizens residing or travelling in Russia should depart immediately,” the U.S. embassy in Moscow said. “Exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions.”  “Do not travel to Russia,” it added.  “Russian security services have arrested U.S. citizens on spurious charges, singled out U.S. citizens in Russia for detention and harassment, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and convicted them in secret trials or without presenting credible evidence,” the embassy said… https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/united-states-tells-citizens-leave-russia-immediately/ar-AA17qAnp   Record share of Americans are raiding their 401(k) plans due to hardship The share of 401(k) participants taking hardship withdrawals from their accounts rose to 2.4% last year, up from 1.9% in 2021, according to financial services firm Fidelity. That represents the highest share of hardship withdrawals recorded at Fidelity, which noted the share typically ranges from 2% to 2.3% annually…  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/401k-hardship-withdrawals-at-record-fidelity-vanguard/   Record Number of 401(k) Hardship Withdrawals Seen in 2022 The Wall Street Journal, citing Vanguard research, reported that a record 2.8% of the five million people in 401(k) plans run by the investment behemoth tapped their retirement savings in 2022 for financial hardship reasons. It’s an increase from 2.1% in 2021 and a pre-pandemic average of about 2%… https://www.napa-net.org/news-info/daily-news/record-number-401k-hardship-withdrawals-seen-2022   After opening moderately higher on Sunday night, ESHs sank until they hit the daily low of 4078.75 at 20:30 ET.  ESHs then commenced a rally that persisted until 7:30 ET.  After a decline that lasted until 9:34 ET, traders poured into ESHs and stocks for the Monday rally and the expected expiry week upward manipulation.  ESHs went vertical from 9:34 ET until 10:48 ET.  After a modest retreat, ESHs spiked to a modest new high at 11:40 ET. ESHs and stocks then plodded higher until ESHs topped at 14:00 ET.   After a moderate decline that lasted an hour, ESHs and stocks began the last hour rally at 15:00 ET.  It was an A-B-C rally that persisted into the close.   On Monday afternoon, the US said it would sell 26m more barrels of SPR oil.   Insider traders use ETFs to front-run M&A deals, academics say Research identifies $2.75bn worth of potential ‘shadow trades’ in US between 2009 and 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/9ee4e371-f965-4121-a395-cb8b94a5f9e6   Positive aspects of previous session Robust equity rally on buying for the Monday and expiry-week rallies Bonds rallied moderately   Negative aspects of previous session Copper, oil and gasoline rallied sharply   Ambiguous aspects of previous session The dollar declined moderately   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4122.95 Previous session High/Low: 4138.90; 4092.67   GOP@RepMTG: East Palestine, Ohio is undergoing an ecological disaster bc authorities blew up the train derailment cars carrying hazardous chemicals and press are being arrested for trying to tell the story. Oh but UFO’s!  What is going on?   @AmVirtueOrg: 20 tons of toxic materials were derailed in East Palestine, OH. When caught on fire the Vinyl Chloride attaches to water particles and is particularly toxic to crops and life. https://archive.is/t0YW9   @greg_price11: Buttigieg: “It couldn’t be a more exciting time for transportation. It’s had its challenges… We’ve faced issues from container shipping, to airline cancellations, now we got balloons (audience laughs).”  No mention of the Ohio train derailment.   https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1625172218165575687   GOP Sen (Ohio) JD Vance wants answers from Team Biden about the condition of drinking water and the environment near the Ohio chemical spill.  https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1625223855202508803/photo/1   @ChadPergram: GOP OH Sen Vance: I’m horrified by the Norfolk Southern train crash in East Palestine… One week ago, local and state officials determined that to avoid a catastrophic explosion a controlled release of vinyl chloride would take place.  This release is the source of the frightening plumes of black smoke that have made their way around social media. While those plumes of smoke are now gone, many questions remain.    Is the air and water safe for residents? So far, we have been told that air and drinking water tests performed by the state and federal Environmental Protection Agencies, the Ohio National Guard, and Norfolk Southern have been encouraging.   Near 15:30 ET yesterday, another train derailment occurred in Enoree, SC. https://www.foxcarolina.com/2023/02/13/officials-responding-train-derailment-enoree/   GOP Rep @laurenboebert: Pete Buttigieg has finally emerged today. Not a single comment about the train crash in Ohio. Instead, he bemoaned the whiteness of the construction industry.  It’s a miracle that this country is able to function at all under this regime.   @ColumbiaBugle: Senator @JDVance1 Joins Tucker Carlson to Discuss The Train Derailment in Ohio and America’s Failing Infrastructure : JD: “The problem we have is that we are ruled by unserious people who are worried about fake problems instead of the real fact that our country is falling apart. https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1625305829149663232     “Now we know if you listen to Secretary Buttigieg today, that they are focused more on whether we have too many white men in construction jobs than he is on the fundamentals of his job which is ensuring we have a viable transportation infrastructure in this country.” https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1625307647065849859   @RNCResearch: Top Biden spokesman John Kirby says officials have not yet been able to recover the entire “payload” from the Chinese spy balloon Biden allowed to surveil the entire country before it was shot down.  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1625206585394925585   On Monday afternoon, US Defense Secretary Austin said no debris has been recovered from the three objects shot down over Prudhoe Bay Alaska on Friday, Canada on Saturday, and Lake Huron on Sunday.   GOP @RepRyanZinke: U.S. forces shot down 4 objects in the last 10 days (2 of which were in Montana airspace) & the President hasn’t addressed the nation on one of them.  Weak leadership creates aggressive adversaries.   Today – Despite ugly fundamentals and a worsening geopolitical situation, pattern traders generated a rally on Monday.  Traders rationalized that the window for a rally was open until the January CPI release at 8:30 ET today.  Whatever January CPI appears, there will be several twists & turns in ESHs before and after the NYSE open.    If the January CPI is in line or smaller than expected, there should be a robust equity rally.  The Key Question: Can the expiry-week manipulation overcome a disappointing January CPI Report?   @BP_Rising: How can you trust CPLie data when it keeps being “adjusted” to appear lower (deceive public on reality of inflation)? You simply can’t. There’s too much motivation for politicians and central bankers to have it appear lower.   https://twitter.com/BP_Rising/status/1625220979839434753   ESHs are -4.00 and USHs are +10/32 at 20:45 ET.    Expected economic data: Jan NFIB Small Biz Optimism 91; Jan CPI 0.5% m/m & 6.2% y/y, Core 0.4% m/m % 5.5% y/y; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 9:30 ET, Dallas Fed Pres Logan 11 ET, Phil Fed Pres Harker 11:30 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 14:05 ET   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 39670; 100-day MA: 3885; 150-day MA: 3937; 200-day MA: 3945 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,643; 100-day MA: 32,618; 150-day MA: 32,483; 200-day MA: 32,334   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3820.10 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4037.43 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4101.13 triggers a sell signal   WaPo: The Hunter Biden laptop and claims of ‘Russian disinfo’ Politico published a story with an explosive headline: “Hunter Biden story is Russian disinfo, dozens of former intel officials say.” The article said that more than 50 former senior intelligence officials, including five CIA chiefs, had signed a letter saying the release of the emails “has all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.”…    “There was message distortion,” former director of national intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. told The Fact Checker in a telephone interview. “All we were doing was raising a yellow flag that this could be Russian disinformation. Politico deliberately distorted what we said. It was clear in paragraph five…    To me, it’s a difference without a distinction. It could have been bad information, false information,” he said. “But we had no evidence, no inside baseball that it was. The intent of the letter was that this could be Russian disinformation — emphasis on could. It’s a very important nuance … a distinction that people are always ignoring.”…   “I did not examine the laptop,” he said. “I did not know the content… If we are right, this is Russia trying to influence how Americans vote in this election…” Analysis: “If we are right” is another “get out of jail free” card…  Analysis: This paragraph five — a “get out of jail free” card — is intended to provide plausible deniability if Russian involvement is not proven… https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/13/hunter-biden-laptop-claims-russian-disinfo/   NY Post’s @mirandadevine: Still lying. “There was message distortion,” James Clapper says of the election-rigging letter he signed claiming Hunter Biden’s laptop was Russian disinfo. “Politico deliberately distorted what we said.” He didn’t say a word for 2 years. Now he’s scared.    Also is Politico going to defend itself and its reporter? Pretty big accusation that targets their credibility. Or are they content to be slandered in service of political spooks?   @JonathanTurley: James Clapper hit Politico for distorting his infamous letter on the Hunter Biden laptop. https://foxnews.com/media/james-clapper-accuses-politico-deliberately-distorting-letter-biden-laptop-being-russian-disinfo   He insists that, shortly before an election, they were merely raising the possibility that it might be Russian disinformation in a letter signed by 50 high ranking former intel officials. They were “shocked, shocked” it was taken as more than a mere possibility.  Of course, that is the very profile of disinformation that was used by Twitter and other companies to censor others…    Clapper is suggesting that these signatories did not expect that their letter would be used to discard or dismiss the laptop story.  Notably, I do not recall Clapper rushing forward before the election to correct the widespread use of the letter to dismiss the laptop as Russian disinformation. It was only after the Russian disinformation claims were debunked after the election that he appears distraught.   North Korean defector shocked by what she learned at “woke” Ivy League school. “At Columbia University they were literally saying that all the problems that we have is because of capitalism, because of white men, and the solution for all these problems is a communist revolution in the name of equity.”  “They were saying that we need to destroy this country, and we need to rebuild the country in the name of equality of outcomes, and that same ideology drove my home country into what it is that state North Korea,” she continued…  https://fxn.ws/3Ih0VbH

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

I am repeating this important interview in case you missed it yesterday

Greg Hunter ITERVIEWING 

I will see you tomorrow, and a special wish to you and your significant other

on this Valentine’s day

Harvey