FEB 15/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $19.65 TO $1835.25//SILVER CLOSED DOWN $.26 TO $21.61//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $18.25 TO $920.15//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $29.25 TO $1473.90//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER/VACCINE IMPACT/DR PANDA/SLAY NEWS/USA INFORMS UKRAINE THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH LONG RANGE MISSILES TO SEND TO THEM//UKRAINE LEAVES MAJOR CITIES IN THE DONBAS AS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE UNSTOPPABLE//THE DEATH TOLL IN TURKEY /SYRIAADVANCES TO 40,000//MAJOR PROTESTS IN MANY CITIES ACROSS THE GLOBE//USA RETAIL SALES ADVANCE SMARTLY IN JANUARY (DATA DOUBTFUL DUE TO ADJUSTMENTS)//USA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION QUITE ANEMIC DURING THESE PAST TWO YEARS//ZERO INCREASE IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN JANUARY/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
072 C GOLDMAN 3 104 C MIZUHO 2 118 C MACQUARIE FUT 22 132 C SG AMERICAS 3 323 C HSBC 19 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 50 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 11 657 H MORGAN STANLEY 9 661 C JP MORGAN 567 230 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 709 C BARCLAYS 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 1 800 C MAREX SPEC 13 13 880 C CITIGROUP 18 880 H CITIGROUP 257 905 C ADM 4
TOTAL: 612 612 MONTH TO DATE: 14,193
JPMORGAN STOPPED 234/612
DONATE
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT: 612 NOTICES FOR 61,200 OZ or 1.9035 TONNES
total notices so far: 14,193 contracts for 1,419,300 oz (44.146 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 5 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 25,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month :814 for 4,070,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////
INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS
AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.302. MILLION OZ (CORRECTED
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 957 CONTRACTS TO 132,279 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.01 LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. FOR THE TWO MONTHS, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.01. AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 59 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (0.0 MILLION OZ. ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.775 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 751 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP OZ// NEW TOTALS STANDING = 4.175 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 5.95 MILLION OZ//// V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -147
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 10,070 contracts: OR 50.350 MILLION OZ . (915 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 50.25 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 50.35/ MILLION OZ/INITIAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 957 DESPITE OUR TINY $0.01 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 751 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 0.54 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP= NEW STANDING: 4.175 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 5.95 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 206OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 25,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1162 CONTRACTS TO 426,116 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1041 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1162 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $1.40 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 40,000 OZ //NEW STANDING: 45.819 TONNES//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $1.40 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2352 OI CONTRACTS (7.315 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3514 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 426,116
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2352 CONTRACTS WITH 1162CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3514 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2352 CONTRACTS OR 7.315 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3514 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1162) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2352 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) TINY SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :
32,898 CONTRACTS OR 3,289,800 OZ OR 102.33 TONNES 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2990 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 102.33 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 102.33/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.87% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 102.33 TONNES/INITIAL (HEADING FOR ANOTHER STRONG ISSUANCE)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 957 CONTRACTS OI TO 132,132 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 751 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 751 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 751 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 957 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 751 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A SMALL LOSS OF 206 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.030 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.14 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.79 PTS OR 0.39% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 301.59 PTS OR 1.43% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 100.92 PTS OR 0.37% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .91% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8430 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8528// /Oil DOWN TO 78.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.78 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1162 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 426,116 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.40
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3514 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 3514 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3514 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2352 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3514 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A TINY SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 1162 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $1.40. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. TODAY THE SPEC LONGS WERE RINSED OUT!!
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (45.819)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL THIS YEAR 656.076 TONNES
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 45.819 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $1.40) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2352 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 7.315 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.219 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 40,000 OZ OR 1.244TONNES//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 45.819 tonnes … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.40.
WE HAD -1041 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES ADDED TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2352 CONTRACTS OR 235200 OZ OR 7.315 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 164,577// poor//
final gold volumes/yesterday 223,310/// fair
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //FEB 15//
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
14,193 notices 1,419,300 44.146 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 1
i) Into Dealer Delaware 903.08 oz
total dealer deposit: 903,08 oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: NIL oz
customer withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Brinks 6269.445 oz (195 kilobars)
ii) Out of HSBC: 12,024.474 oz (374 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 18,293.91 oz
Adjustments; 5 a sign of stress
dealer to customer/
1. JPMorgan: 27,612.047 oz
ii) Brinks 7216.149 oz
iii) HSBC 10,307.684 oz
iv) Malca: 6883.14 oz
v)Manfra 31,984.158 oz
total: 84,003.178 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1148 contracts having lost 186 contracts. We had 586 notices
filed on Monday so we gained a huge 400 contract or an additional 40,000 oz will stand for metal at the comex
March LOST 111 contracts to stand at 1775.
April lost 1681 contracts down to 343,132
We had 612 notice(s) filed today for 61200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 567 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 612 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 234 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14,193 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEBRUARY 1148 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 612 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,473,100 OZ OR 45.819 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of January.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:
No of notices filed so far (14,193 x 100 oz+ 1148 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (612)x 100 oz} which equals 1,473,100 oz standing OR 45.819 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 45.819TONNES. SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 814 x 5,000 oz = 4,070,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(26) and the number of notices served upon today 5 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month:814 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB (26 – number of notices served upon today 5) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 4.175 million oz + PREVIOUS 1.775 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 5.95MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 902.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES
FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES
FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 920.79 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 483.302 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
China is raking in gold like there is no tomorrow. This gold is used in the Petro yuan scheme. Sovereign China has over 40,000 to 50,000 tons of physical gold stored amongst its banks
China imported 1,343 tons of gold in 2022, the highest import level since 2018. Total gold imports for the year were up 64% over 2021.
China ranks as the world’s biggest gold consumer.
Gold demand in China picked up during the last half of the year as the government relaxed some COVID restrictions. China imported 157 tons of gold in December to close out a strong H2.
The World Gold Council called it “a tale of two halves.”
On-and-off lockdowns in major cities during the first half suppressed local gold demand and imports. As COVID-controlling measures eased and the local gold price premium rose to a multi-year high, imports during the second half jumped. “
According to the WGC, strength in the Chinese gold market continued into January. The Shanghai-London gold price premium charted a mild rebound, putting a stop to the declining trend since last October. Stronger gold demand during January was key.
A recovery in the Chinese economy after it was strangled by government COVID restrictions helped drive the rebound in the gold market. China experienced a COVID peak in December. According to the World Gold Council, Chinese economic activities revived in January. That drove a boom in the gold market.
According to the China Gold Association, during the 15-day period from the Chinese New Year day to the Spring Lantern Festival, Chinese gold consumption was up by 18% year-on-year.
Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange totaled 140 tons in January. That was a modest month-on-month decline of 2 tons and 25% lower than January 2022. But the lower number was primarily due to the 2023 Chinese New Year holiday that limited January to just 16 trading days. That was the fewest since 2012. When compared with previous Chinese New Year months, January’s withdrawal total was 12% higher than the 10-year average.
As we’ve reported, the People’s Bank of China resumed official gold purchases in November. That continued into January, with the Chinese central bank adding another 15 tons to its reserves. Gold now accounts for 3.7% of China’s total reserves.
The Chinese central bank accumulated 1,448 tons of gold between 2002 and 2019, and then suddenly went silent. Many speculate that the Chinese continued to add gold to its holdings off the books during those silent years.
There has always been speculation that China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
If this apparent rebound in the Chinese gold market continues into 2023, it will drive overall global gold demand higher. Gold demand grew by 18% to 4,741 tons in 2022, the highest demand in 11 years.
end
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Oh OH! another fraud
this time Regal Assets a somewhat small player.
Clint Siegner: Choose your bullion dealer carefully
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-02-14 13:14Section: Daily Dispatches
By Clint Siegner Money Metals News Service, Eagle, Idaho Monday, February 13, 2023
Regal Assets, a somewhat prominent gold and silver dealer in southern California, is in serious trouble based on news released last week. Tyler Gallagher, the firm’s high-flying owner, has reportedly vanished — perhaps to avoid arrest and prosecution.
Regal clients are now talking to the press about their inability to get delivery of the metal they bought and paid for. The Regal website has been taken offline.
As reported in the Daily Beast article, titled “The Great Gatsby of Gold Took Their Millions — and Vanished,” those contacted by the reporter all told a similar story of their interaction with Regal Assets: “An enthusiastic sales pitch, a six-figure investment, months of delays and excuses, and finally, over the summer, radio silence.” …
And they should stop and pay for the reconstruction. It sure looks like Turkey was hit with the HAARP weapon
which caused the earthquake
(Bloomberg)
Turkey to temporarily suspend some gold imports after quakes
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-02-14 22:24Section: Daily Dispatches
By Firat Kozok Bloomberg News Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Turkey will suspend some gold imports as part of an emergency plan to mitigate the economic fallout from twin earthquakes that hit the country’s southeast last week, according to an official with direct knowledge of the matter.
The Treasury and Finance Ministry has finalized the regulation that will force a pause in gold purchases from abroad that fall into the category of “cash against goods,” the official said, asking not to be identified as the decision has not been made public.
The ministry declined to comment.
Gold imports were among the biggest drags on Turkey’s external finances in the months before the deadliest temblors to hit the country in almost a century. Turks invested in the precious metal as a hedge against rampant inflation and steep declines in the lira.
The deficit in Turkey’s current account, the broadest measure of trade and investment, widened to $48.8 billion in 2022, with gold imports accounting for $20.4 billion. The current-account gap was the widest in at least a decade. …
This is interesting: one of the guarantors for Bankman Fried $250 million bail pkg was the Dean of Stanford Law School
(zerohedge)
Bankman-Fried’s Bail Guarantors Revealed
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 01:55 PM
The previously sealed names of two people who co-signed Sam Bankman-Fried’s $250 million bail package have been publicly released.
The guarantors were identified in the unredacted bonds as Andreas Paepcke, a Stanford research scientist…
…and Larry Kramer, former dean of Stanford law school…
Both Bankman-Fried’s parents teach at Stanford.
Kramer has publicly spoken about the Bankman-Frieds, described by NYTimes as a family friend…
“I had a friend who said, ‘You don’t want to be seen with them,’” said Larry Kramer, a former dean of the law school and a close friend of the Bankman-Fried family.
“I don’t see how this doesn’t bankrupt them.”
The identities of the guarantors were released on Wednesday after Judge Lewis A. Kaplan ruled in favor of an application from various media organizations, including Bloomberg, objecting to the information being kept a secret.
Which leaves us with one simple question – how the fuck did these Stanford faculty members get so rich as to guarantee that size of a bail?
Under the terms of the bail package – which prosecutors said was one of the largest pretrial bonds in US history – the guarantors were to be “of considerable means” and one of them couldn’t be a relative.
It turns out, according to Bloomberg reporting, that Kramer and Paepcke had signed on as sureties for separate bonds of only $500,000 and $200,000, respectively.
so much for that $250 million?
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8430
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8528
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.79 PTS OR 0.39%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 301.59 PTS OR 1.43%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 100.91 PTS OR 0.37%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.60 Euro FALLS TO 1.0699 DOWN 36 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 133.69/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.4370%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.219%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.468…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.222//
3j Gold at $1833.95//silver at: 21.52 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 53/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 74.33//
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 133.69/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .500% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9230–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9876well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.753% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.778 UP 2 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,85…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.4765% UP 0 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
OFF TODAY
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
USD benefits from marked GBP underperformance, US futures softer pre-data – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 06:44 AM
European bourses ex-FTSE 100 are in the green though US futures remain lower after choppy APAC trade, ES -0.4% pre-data
DXY is benefitting from marked GBP pressure following UK CPI, with Cable sub-1.21 and the index holding around 103.50 though off 103.63 best
Gilts are significantly outpacing their European and US peers post-inflation, with pricing for a 25bp BoE hike in March moving below 70% vs 89% pre-release
Crude benchmarks are softer intraday after a much larger-than-expected Private build, though internals were mixed, and the IEA report which chimed with OPEC and EIA re. 2023 demand
Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales, NY Fed Manufacturing, Industrial Production & Japanese Trade Balance, Speech from ECB’s Lagarde, Supply from the US, Earnings from Cisco, Biogen, Analog Devices, Marathon Oil & Shopify.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, picking up from choppy APAC trade though this is with the exception of the FTSE 100 -0.1% amid Barclay’s losses.
Sectors, are mixed though with a positive skew as Consumer Products/Services are buoyed by LVMH and Kering while Banking names lag given the above and yield action.
Stateside, futures are lower across the board, ES -0.4%, awaiting key US data incl. Retail Sales and Empire Fed with today’s calendar notably devoid of Fed speak.
US President Biden’s administration has issued a final rule requiring federally funded EV chargers to be built in the US; effective immediately. Under the new rules Tesla (TSLA) will open chargers to other car models.
The USD remains resilient heading into the afternoon’s data releases, with the DXY holding around 103.50 though shy of earlier 103.63 best, as the index benefits from favourable European yield and GBP action.
Specifically, GBP/USD has been pushed to a 1.2074 trough vs 1.2182 best following unexpectedly ‘cooler’ UK CPI, with market pricing seeing a marked dovish shift for March.
However, the Antipodeans are the laggards irrespective of hawkish RBA commentary amid underlying commodity pressure and the fallout from Cyclone Gabrielle; AUD/USD sub-0.69 and NZD/USD sub-0.63.
Amidst this, EUR and JPY are fairly contained vs USD with the morning’s ECB speak via de Cos adding little and USD/JPY now at the mid-point of 132.55-133.50 parameters.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8183 vs exp. 6.8196 (prev. 6.8136)
Fitch says there is some room for South Africa’s BB- sovereign rating to absorb a temporary impact on economic metrics from load shedding; should infrastructure problems cause further declines in potential growth, this could potentially weigh on its sovereign rating.
Gilts are significantly outpacing their EGB & US peers in wake of softer than expected UK inflation data, with pricing for a 25bp BoE hike in March dropping to sub-70% from circa. 89% pre-release.
Action which pushed Gilts to a test of 1.04 to the upside, though they are yet to breach the figure.
In wake of this, Bunds and USTs are firmer though magnitudes are much more contained and the benchmarks are well off best levels, posting gains of circa. 10 ticks currently.
As such, the UK 10yr yield is markedly lagging with Bunds and USTs softer but essentially unchanged in comparison ahead of yet more key US data.
Crude benchmarks are softer intraday after a much larger-than-expected Private build, though internals were mixed, and the IEA report which chimed with OPEC and EIA re. 2023 demand.
Currently, WTI Mar and Brent Apr are lower by just under 1.0% and are around/below USD 78/bbl and USD 85.00/bb respectively.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +10.5mln (exp. +1.1mln), Cushing +2mln, Gasoline +0.8mln (exp. +1.5mln), Distillate +1.7mln (exp. +0.4mln).
IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: global oil demand is set to rise by 2mln BPD in 2023 to 101.9mln BPD (+200k BPD on the prior forecast). Click here for more detail.
Spot gold is being weighed on by the firmer USD and has retested the January 6th trough at USD 1831/oz, with support next at USD 1825/oz and 1823/oz via the January 5th and 3rd lows respectively.
Base metals are hampered by the USD and broader risk tone, with LME Copper slipping further below USD 9k/T.
UK PM Sunak is exploring a public sector pay deal that backdates wage offer, according to FT.
CBRT is to buy gov’t bonds and Sukuk via the quotation method on Wednesday, intend to buy up to TRY 8bln incl. USD 3bln of bonds/Sukuk on Wednesday.
ECB’s de Cos says recent data on EZ inflation and some key determinants are somewhat encouraging; withdrawal of fiscal support measures could make inflation more persistent. Workers pressures to reclaim their lost purchasing power might be significant, particularly with a tight labour market.
EU sues Poland; EU Commission refers Poland to ECJ For violations to EU law by its constitutional tribunal.
DATA RECAP
UK CPI YY (Jan) 10.1% vs. Exp. 10.3% (Prev. 10.5%); MM (Jan) -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
UK Core CPI MM (Jan) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)
UK Services CPI declined 0.9% M/M with the Y/Y rate falling to 6% from 6.8%.
UK ONS House Price Index (Dec) 9.8% Y/Y vs. prev. 10.6%.
EU Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur (Dec) -8.8B EU vs. Exp. -12.5B EU (Prev. -11.7B EU, Rev. -11.6B EU)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Biden named Fed’s Brainard as top economic adviser and Jared Bernstein as Chief White House Economist, as expected, while the Fed announced that Vice Chair Brainard submitted her resignation effective on or about February 20th to become the NEC Director.
US forces shot down an Iranian-made drone in Syria, according to the US military cited by Reuters.
Chinese President Xi vowed to step up trade and investment cooperation with Iran and constructively participate in efforts to revive its nuclear deal, according to FT.
Japan is considering expanding the use of weapons against intrusion into its airspace after it recently noted that it strongly suspects past intrusions of Chinese surveillance balloons, according to Kyodo. Furthermore, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they told China that airspace violation by unmanned surveillance balloons is absolutely unacceptable.
EU Commission President von der Leyen suggests a 10th tranche of sanctions against Russia, with trade bands. Sanctions could occur on electronic components against Russia that could deal with items incl. drones.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says a renewed Russian foreign policy concept will focus on ending Western dominance in the world, according to Tass.
German Vice Chancellor says the delivery of Leopard tans is a “bit too late” and that time is running out ahead of expected Russian offensive, via Die Zeit.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged after reclaiming USD 22k in limited specific newsflow with the session’s parameters particularly slim.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly lower following the choppy performance on Wall Street as markets digested sticky US inflation data and the plethora of Fed commentary that ensued.
ASX 200 declined amid underperformance in its top-weighted financials sector after results from Australia’s largest bank CBA which despite posting a record cash profit for H1, still fell short of estimates and the Co. flagged a moderation in business loan growth.
Nikkei 225 was subdued with several of the biggest movers in Tokyo driven by earnings results.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood with Hong Kong dragged lower by weakness in the property sector, although losses in the mainland were stemmed after the PBoC boosted funds through its Medium-term Lending Facility at an unchanged rate.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC conducted CNY 499bln of 1-year MLF (vs CNY 300bln maturing) with rate kept at 2.75%.
RBA Governor Lowe said the current monetary policy stance is restrictive and inflation is way too high which needs to come down, while he noted risks are two-sided and that there is the risk they have not yet done enough on interest rates. Furthermore, Lowe said Q4 inflation result showed strong domestic demand and they are seeing some early evidence that demand is moderating but also noted rates have not yet peaked and he is still unsure how far rates have to go.
Moody’s says China faces a difficult transition period amid property market correction, risks for gov’t. Sectors contribution to growth will likely remain materially lower over the medium-term.
Indian Trade Official says UK-FTA conversations are ongoing and there is positive movement. Fourth round of talks on the EU-India FTA is schedule for March 2023.
1.c WEDNESDAY/ TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.79 PTS OR 0.39% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 301.59 PTS OR 1.43% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 100.92 PTS OR 0.37% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .91% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8430 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8528// /Oil DOWN TO 78.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.78 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/
end
3c CHINA /
CHINA
END
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
GERMANY/
Lufthansa grounded due to a severed broadband cable
(zerohedge)
Lufthansa Grounds All Flights After Severed Broadband Cable
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 07:01 AM
Germany’s flagship airline carrier Lufthansa grounded all flights Wednesday because of a severed broadband cable, according to Bloomberg.
A Lufthansa spokesman said the airline’s ground systems, including the check-in operations, were affected. Initially, multiple news outlets said German authorities were investigating whether the IT failure was due to a cyberattack.
But moments ago, Bloomberg, citing a person familiar with the matter, said construction workers in the Frankfurt region cut a Deutsche Telekom broadband cable and caused the widespread IT failure.
“Our technicians are working flat out to fix the issue,” Peter Kespohl, a spokesman for Deutsche Telekom, said. He outlined there is no timeline for how long the repairs would take.
Lufthansa’s airlines include Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, and Swiss. It also operates low-cost carrier Eurowings as well as other smaller regional airlines.
Some passengers tweeted videos and photos of them being stranded at German airports. Instead of using computers, passengers had to check in using pen and paper. The airline also was unable to process their luggage digitally.
END
EUROPE
END
EUROPE
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
wow!! this is a good one:
An interview by Germany’s Berliner Zeitung of Seymour Hersh:
Biden Willing To Let Germans Freeze In Blowing Up Pipeline: Seymour Hersh Interview
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 04:45 PM
Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh in a fresh interview with Germany’s Berliner Zeitung newspaper which follows up on his bombshell reporting How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline, has provided more context to the Biden White House’s decision-making behind the brazen, high-risk covert op.
“The President of the United States would rather see Germany freeze than [see] Germany possibly stop supporting Ukraine,” Hersh asserted.
He explained that in reality the Ukraine conflict was “not going well for the West” and that it’s important to remember that Stream 2 “was put on hold by Germany itself, not international sanctions, and the US was afraid Germany would lift sanctions because of a cold winter.”
That’s when the legendary investigative journalist emphasized:
“The point is that Biden has decided to let the Germans freeze this winter. The President of the United States would rather see Germany freeze than [see] Germany possibly stop supporting Ukraine.”
Hersh has also in a fresh update to his Substack teased that more details are coming based on his sources. “Stay tuned,” he said. “We are only on first base…” – writing that:
“There may be more to learn about Joe Biden’s decision to prevent the German government from having second thoughts about the lack of cheap gas this winter.”
In the meantime, Russia says it is preparing to convene a special meeting of the U.N. Security Council to discuss the case of the Nord Stream sabotage…
The Russian mission to the United Nations said on Wednesday it is planning this meeting for Feb.22, and it comes after Moscow has demanded answers from the Biden administration related to allegations and reporting revealed by Hersh.
While so far the mainstream media has by and large been completely silent on Hersh’s findings, Reuters has belatedly acknowledged it as follows on Wednesday:
U.S. investigative journalist Seymour Hersh wrote in a blog that an attack on the Russian-operated pipelines under the Baltic Sea was carried out last September at the direction of U.S. President Joe Biden.
The White House has dismissed the report as “utterly false and complete fiction.”
And yet, previously top US officials have in so many words openly admitted that they welcomed the news of the Nord Stream pipeline explosions. Recent statements such as in the following Senate testimony by Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland are quite revealing…
Nuland bluntly saying that the pipeline sabotage left the administration “very gratified” should have been featured in every major newspaper across the US and world, yet has been given almost zero attention by establishment media and the big news networks. But this only goes to Hersh’s point in his latest interview: his own reporting and exposing of US government secrets going all the way back to My Lai is often initially ignored or even fought against, until it becomes impossible to ignore, and only much later is near-universally lauded when the truth is belatedly and grudgingly acknowledged.
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/BUKHMUT
Aνθρωποθυσία: Ανεκπαίδευτοι Ουκρανοί στρατιώτες μένουν ζωντανοί… μόνο για 4 ώρες στο Bakhmut! – WarNews247
Robert Hryniak
9:50 AM (5 minutes ago)
to
Slaughter of innocent people .. 4 hours to live .. in Bakhmut .. crazy
US Informs Ukraine It Doesn’t Have Enough Long-Range Missiles To Send
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 11:07 AM
Ukraine has been urging for the US to immediately transfer Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMs), which have a range of up to 190 miles, capable of being fired from the HIMARS rocket systems, which the Ukrainians already possess.
But now the US is informing the Ukrainians that it doesn’t have enough of these long range missiles even if it were willing to provide them. Citing four US officials, Politico writes that “Transferring ATACMS to the battlefield in eastern Europe would dwindle America’s stockpiles and harm the U.S. military’s readiness for a future fight, the people said.”M142 HIMARS and ATACMS missiles, file image
An alternative that Ukrainian is considering seeking is to ask Washington to approve purchase of ATACMs from US allies which currently possess them, which includes Poland, Romania, Greece, Turkey, South Korea, Qatar and Bahrain.
Another main reason the US has cited in the past for not wanting to introduce ATACMs is the desire to avoid severe escalation with Russia in providing longer-range rockets.
But it looks like low Pentagon stockpiles is fast becoming the number one reason for holding back, with one US official referencing “a desire to maintain a certain level of munitions in U.S. stockpiles.”
“With any package, we always consider our readiness and our own stocks while providing Ukraine what it needs on the battlefield,” a senior DoD official said. “There are other ways of providing Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to strike the targets.”
In prior months, as reports of a potential ATACMS transfer emerged, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that if longer range munitions are supplied, the US would become “a party to the conflict”.
She stressed at the time that Russia “reserves the right to defend its territory” – given especially that longer range rockets could potentially be used to strike deep inside Russia, something that appears to have already happened on a handful of occasions with drones.
Meanwhile, a small handful of Congressional Republicans have been increasingly highlighting the issue of the US needing to prioritize its own defense readiness first, instead of handing essential advanced arms over to foreign countries while risking needless escalation with a nuclear-armed superpower.
END
The Russian advance is unstoppable: Ukrainians evacuate Krasny Liman & set up a new line of defense in Kharkiv! – They lose Kupyansk – Seversk – WarNews247
Robert Hryniak
10:50 AM (2 minutes ago)
to
War is hell and it always has been this way as both soldiers and civilians die in battle and in collateral damage shattering lives of those left to mourn the dead. We have watched over decades of time many a nation shattered and people displaced with unbelievable horrors of war and blood thirst shown from the killing fields of Cambodia to Vietnam to Iraq to African slaughters to what now occurs in the Ukraine. One can ponder the vastness of death that has stalked these lands to question the purpose or even rational for such death. To realize that history while offering lessons is largely ignored to allow repetition of errors and hubris of new fools to flounder in the blood of innocent people with the same lack of regard as predecessors.
Today the same stupidity flows from the lips of people like Anthony Blinken who sends people to die while overlooking corruption rampant that renders directions meaningless. Zelensky and his crowd are simple liars and thieves plundering whatever they can reach and touch. Whether it be body parts from wounded soldiers or child trafficking or simple gun running. The bigger idiots are housed in the ship of fools in DC who lack both the experience and the skills to administer a nation or hegemony, led by a senile scoundrel of questionable repute.
So what can go wrong? Well, everything because there is no grounding of logic for what has been put into action in attacking Russia using Ukraine as the expendable proxy of flawed decisions, and blind hatred of Russians by Neocons. People who neither learn from history of lack the competence to mange fall into the traps laid by their own lack of sight. Sadly, today we are all victims of this foolishness. And it remains to be seen who else as nation will be drawn into sacrifice. What is clear that countries like France and England have already run out of weapon systems to send and lack even the basics of conventional self defense. Perhaps a sign that peace and collective interests should trump senseless war amongst reasonable people. Pity, there are few thinking people today. A thinking person would not voice a two front war with China and Russia. The reality war with either one cannot be won by America and NATO as the proxy war with Russia is proving to be self evident. To think otherwise is delusional at best. The western world hollowed itself out with corruption and greed and lies to lack the ability to sustain any war. To fight a war you need a supply chain to support such endeavors and the West simply does not have the capacity to wage traditional war.
Ukraine will soon cease to exist as a so called nation state that it was. By the end of April this mess should be over giving birth to a larger mess created by the decisions that have been taken. Whether this same crew gets to continue to foul the world remains to be seen. Because never before has so few created so much damage in so short a time. So yes cities like Bakhmut will and are falling to Russian control. And it matters not whether it takes a day or a week as Ukrainians are burning houses to give rise to smoke to cover a retreat in what is a killing field, as losses exceed 50% of soldiers there. Whether the ship of fools is astute enough to break direction not flounder upon the rocks of failure will determine what happens for some time.
Russia is taking all precautions and has now armed its’ Baltic fleet with nuclear missiles and put to sea. Russian surface vessels and subs now roam within targeted strike areas waiting with the most modern missiles Russia has. And Sarmat mobile missiles have been also deployed in several areas of Russia. These missile systems have 10-12 warheads and will be delivered at Mach 20 if launched. And key Russian cities are now full protected with multi layered defense systems. Recent pictures of such systems ringing Moscow and being placed on building roof tops were not for show or busy work projects; Russians feel threatened and have zero trust of the West. So they have prepared for the worse and pray for the best. They do not seek war with the West but in Russian tradition will die to protect Russia. Whether others understand the reality of war face to face is questionable as they have not experienced loss to understand its’ toll. Russians lost 25 million people in WWII leaving most families with the lost of a loved one to remind them of the horror of real war.
While we remain far from the tragedy of Ukrainians and others in places like Syria, etc. we should be mindful that the threat of war haunts not such nations and peoples but it haunts all of us no matter we are or where we choose to travel or live. Because if triggered by incompetence nukes fly, we will all suffer the consequences of a parade of fools. And the consequences of that would be greater than a fall of a empire.
Wow! what devastation: 40,000 lost to their lives to an alleged
HAARP induced earthquake
(zerohedge)
Turkey Stocks Soar On State Support As Quake Deaths Surpass 40,000
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 07:45 AM
After a week-long suspension, Turkish stocks soared Wednesday after the country’s sovereign wealth fund supported financial markets to prevent further declines following last week’s twin earthquakes. The death toll in Turkey and neighboring Syria has surpassed 40,000.
Here are the top headlines via Bloomberg of the intervention to save financial markets:
Turkey Stocks Surge as State Support Underwrites Reopening Boost
Turkey Injects Billions of Liras to Prop Up Stocks Before Open
Turkey Wealth Fund to Support Equities With New Mechanism
Turkey Set to Temporarily Suspend Some Gold Imports
Turkey Plans Tax Waiver for Share Buybacks on Stock Exchange
The Borsa Istanbul 100 Index jumped 9.82% today, as the main equity benchmark recovered much of its losses since the twin earthquakes rocked the country’s southeast region on Feb. 6.
Bloomberg, citing officials with direct knowledge of the matter, stated that Turkey’s sovereign wealth fund supported equities in a new internal mechanism to suppress market volatility.
“All the measures taken seem to have been successful in boosting the equity market.”
“The market reaction for now says most of the demands of the market players are met,” said Burak Isyar, the head of equity research at ICBC Turkey Investment in Istanbul.
Another mechanism to support stocks was Turkish firms’ announcement of large share buyback plans. Turkish Airlines, Erdemir, and Isbank debuted new buyback programs. State-owned lenders Vakifbank and Halkbank boosted their existing programs.
In New York, iShares MSCI Turkey Exchange Traded Fund, the largest ETF concentrated on Turkish stocks, jumped 8% yesterday and is up 6% in premarket trading.
Meanwhile, the number of dead in Turkey and Syria crossed a grim mark today, surpassing 40,000. Tens of thousands of people are still missing as quakes leveled large swaths of ten cities.
end
RUSSIA/USA/UKRAINE
Pepe Escobar discusses Seymour Hersh’s bombshell report on the perpetrators of the NordStream bombing
What’s left for all of us is to swim in a swamp crammed with derelict patsies, dodgy cover stories and intel debris.
Seymour Hersh’s bombshell report on how the United States government blew up the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea last September continues to generate rippling geopolitical waves all across the spectrum. Except, of course, in the parallel bubble of U.S. mainstream media, which has totally ignored it, or in a few select cases, decided to shoot the messenger, dismissing Hersh as a “discredited” journalist, a “blogger”, and a “conspiracy theorist”. I have offered an initial approach, focused on the plentiful merits of a seemingly thorough report, but also noting some serious inconsistencies. Old school Moscow-based foreign correspondent John Helmer has gone even further; and what he uncovered may be as incandescent as Sy Hersh’s own narrative. The heart of the matter in Hersh’s report concerns attribution of responsibility for a de facto industrial terror attack. Surprisingly, no CIA; that falls straight on the toxic planning trio of Sullivan, Blinken and Nuland – neoliberalcons part of the “Biden” combo. And the final green light comes from the Ultimate Decider: the senile, teleprompt-reading President himself. The Norwegians feature as minor helpers. That poses the first serious problem: nowhere in his narrative Hersh refers to MI6, the Poles (government, Navy), the Danes, and even the German government. There’s a mention that on January 2022, “after some wobbling”, Chancellor Scholz “was now firmly on the American team”. Well, by now the plan had been under discussion, according to Hersh’s source, for at least a few months. That also means that Scholz remained “on the American team” all the way to the terror attack, on September 2022. As for the Brits, the Poles and all NATO games being played off Bornhom Island more than a year before the attack, that had been extensively reported by Russian media – from Kommersant to RIA Novosti. The Special Military Operation (SMO) was launched on February 24, almost a year ago. The Nord Stream 1 and 2 blow up happened on September 26. Hersh assures there were “more than nine months of highly secret back and forth debate inside Washington’s national security community about how to ‘sabotage the pipelines’”. So that confirms that the terror attack planning preceded, by months, not only the SMO but, crucially, the letters sent by Moscow to Washington on December 2022, requesting a serious discussion on “indivisibility of security” involving NATO, Russia and the post-Soviet space. The request was met by a dismissive American non-response response. While he was writing the story of a terror response to a serious geopolitical issue, it does raise eyebrows that a first-rate pro like Hersh does not even bother to examine the complex geopolitical background. In a nutshell: the ultimate Mackinderian anathema for the U.S. ruling classes – and that’s bipartisan – is a Germany-Russia alliance, extended to China: that would mean the U.S. expelled from Eurasia, and that conditions everything any American government thinks and does in terms of NATO and Russia. Hersh should also have noticed that the timing of the preparation to “sabotage the pipelines” completely blows apart the official United States government narrative, according to which this a collective West effort to help Ukraine against “unprovoked Russian aggression”. That elusive source The narrative leaves no doubt that Hersh’s source – if not the journalist himself – supports what is considered a lawful U.S. policy: to fight Russia’s “threat to Western dominance [in Europe].” So what seems a U.S. Navy covert op, according to the narrative, may have been misguided not because of serious geopolitical reasons; but because the attack planning intentionally evaded U.S. law “requiring Congress to be informed”. That’s an extremely parochial interpretation of international relations. Or, to be blunt: that’s an apology of Exceptionalism. And that brings us to what may be the Rosebud in this Orson Welles-worthy saga. Hersh refers to a “secure room on the top floor of the Old Executive Office Building …that was also the home of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board”. This was supposedly the place where the terror attack planning was being discussed. So welcome to PIAB: the President Intelligence Advisory Board. All members are appointed by the current POTUS, in this case Joe Biden. If we examine the list of current members of PIAB, we should, in theory, find Hersh’s source (see, for instance, “President Biden Announces Appointments to the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board and the National Science Board”; “President Biden Announces Key Appointments”; “President Biden Announces Key Appointments to Boards and Commissions”; “President Biden Announces Key Appointments to Boards and Commissions”; and “President Biden Announces Key Appointments to Boards and Commissions”. Here are the members of PIAB appointed by Biden: Sandy Winnefeld; Gilman Louie; Janet Napolitano; Richard Verma; Evan Bayh; Anne Finucane; Mark Angelson; Margaret Hamburg; Kim Cobb; and Kneeland Youngblood. Hersh’s source, according to his narrative, asserts, without a shadow of a doubt, that “Russian troops had been steadily and ominously building up on the borders of Ukraine” and that “alarm was growing in Washington”. It’s beggars belief that this supposedly well informed lot didn’t know about the massing of NATO-led Ukrainian troops across the line of contact, getting ready to launch a blitzkrieg against Donbass. What everyone already knew by then – as the record shows even on YouTube – is that the combo behind “Biden” were dead set on terminating the Nord Streams by whatever means necessary. After the start of the SMO, the only thing missing was to find a mechanism for plausible deniability. For all its meticulous reporting, the inescapable feeling remains that what Hersh’s narrative indicts is the Biden combo terror gambit, and never the overall U.S. plan to provoke Russia into a proxy war with NATO using Ukraine as cannon fodder. Moreover, Hersh’s source may be eminently flawed. He – or she – said, according to Hersh, that Russia “failed to respond” to the pipeline terror attack because “maybe they want the capability to do the same things the U.S. did”. In itself, this may prove that the source was not even a member of PIAB, and did not receive the classified PIAB report assessing Putin’s crucial speech of September 30, which identifies the “responsible” party. If that’s the case, the source is just connected (italics mine) to some PIAB member; was not invited to the months-long situation-room planning; and certainly is not aware of the finer details of this administration’s war in Ukraine. Considering Sy Hersh’s stellar track record in investigative journalism, it would be quite refreshing for him to elucidate these inconsistencies. That would get rid of the fog of rumors depicting the report as a mere limited hangout. Considering there are several “silos” of intel within the U.S. oligarchy, with their corresponding apparatuses, and Hersh has cultivated his contacts among nearly all of them for decades, there’s no question the allegedly privileged information on the Nord Stream saga came from a very precise address – with a very precise agenda. So we should see who the story really indicts: certainly the Straussian neo-con/neoliberalcon combo behind “Biden”, and the wobbly President himself. As I pointed out in my initial analysis, the CIA gets away with flying colors. And we should not forget that the Big Narrative is changing fast: the RAND report, the looming NATO humiliation in Ukraine, Balloon Hysteria, UFO psy op. The real “threat” is – who else – China. What’s left for all of us is to swim in a swamp crammed with derelict patsies, dodgy cover stories and intel debris. Knowing that those who really run the show never show their hand.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
end
GLOBAL ISSUES;/GLOBAL ECONOMIES
The USA mouthpiece IMF states that the world will need to prepare for the “unthinkable” after suffering through COVID and the ongoing Ukraine war
(zerohedge)
IMF Says World Needs To Prepare For The “Unthinkable” After COVID, War In Ukraine
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that the world needs to be prepared to better handle shocks and “the unthinkable” in a post-COVID-19 world and in light of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Georgieva made the comments during a World Government Summit panel hosted by CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in Dubai on Feb. 14, where she also referenced the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria that have killed more than 36,000 people.
Asked how “difficult” this year is going to be, Georgieva replied that the world economy is still “in a very difficult place and global growth is slowing down in 2023 but it may be a turning point,” pointing to inflation declining in some countries.
“What we are very concerned [about] is one, the unexpected,” Georgieva said.
“What COVID and the war taught us is we live in a more shock-prone world. What the earthquake in Turkey and Syria taught us is, to think of the unthinkable.
“We all have to change our mindset to be much more agile and much more oriented towards building resilience at all levels, so we can handle the shocks better,” Georgieva added, noting that resistance comes in the form of ensuring that the very “fabric” of each country and its society is strong.
Elsewhere on Tuesday, Georgieva said the IMF has to play a “stabilizing role” in the war in Ukraine, adding that the nation will need around $40 billion to $48 billion for the economy to function this year.
According to Georgieva, who told the audience that her brother is married to a Ukrainian, the IMF has been working with Ukraine to provide it with advice on how to run a “war economy” since Russia’s invasion began in February last year.
She added that the IMF has financed two packages worth $2.7 billion of its own resources to Ukraine since the war began. That is on top of aid provided by Western nations such as the United States.
In December 2022, Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s vice president for Europe and Central Asia, told the Austrian newspaper Die Presse that around 500 billion euros (about $533 billion) alone would be needed to rebuild Ukraine’s damaged or destroyed infrastructure.
In September, the World Bank, in a joint assessment with the Ukraine government and the European Commission, estimated that the current cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine amounts to $349 billion.
Georgieva’s comments come shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with senior members of JPMorgan Chase in Kyiv to discuss the creation of a platform aimed at attracting private capital investment to rebuild Ukraine and aid with postwar economic growth.
NATO Says Ukraine Needs More Ammunition
The Ukrainian government and the banking giant had earlier signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on the matter, under which JPMorgan will advise the Ukrainian government on issues relating to financial stabilization, the development and coordination of strategies for refinancing and debt restructuring, obtaining sovereign credit ratings, and the digitization of the economy, among other things.
On Feb. 13, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called on more allies to provide more ammunition to Ukraine after previously saying that Russian forces had already launched a new offensive ahead of the one-year anniversary of the conflict.
“We see no signs that President Putin is preparing for peace. What we see is the opposite, he is preparing for more war, for new offensives and new attacks,” Stoltenberg told reporters.
“This has become a grinding war of attrition, and therefore it’s also a battle of logistics. … When it comes to artillery, we need ammunition, we need spare parts, we need maintenance, we need all the logistics to ensure that we are able to sustain these weapons systems,” he added.
In response to Stoltenberg’s comments, the Kremlin accused NATO of being an organization that is “hostile” toward Russia and becoming increasingly involved in the war in Ukraine.
“It is trying its best to make its involvement in the conflict around Ukraine as clear as possible,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
It’s the vaccine, stupid, it’s the vaccine! Term coined by Dr. Paul Elias Alexander; in 2020, observed deaths similar to expected (due to virus); in 2021 (>2x standard deviation (SD) & in 2022 >4 x SD
‘In the year 2020 the observed number of deaths was extremely close to the expected number with respect to the empirical standard deviation, in 2021, the observed number of deaths was far above the expected number (more than twice the empirical standard deviation), and further increases in 2022 (above four times the standard deviation).
An age-dependent analysis showed that the strong excess mortality observed in 2021, and 2022 was mainly due to an above-average increase in deaths in the age groups between 15 and 79.
A detailed analysis of the monthly excess mortality showed that the high excess mortality observed in the age groups between 15 and 79 started to accumulate from April 2021 onwards. A similar pattern was observed for the number of stillbirths which was similar to the previous years until March 2021, after which also a sudden and sustained increase was observed.’
‘Fig. 10 shows in the third panel the number of stillbirths per 1,000 total births, and in the fourth panel the quarterly increase in the number of stillbirths per 1,000 total births in the years 2021, and 2022 compared to the mean across the years 2019 and 2020. Note that the number of stillbirths per 1,000 total births cannot be determined for the third quarter 2022 because the number of live births in the fourth quarter 2022 has not yet been published by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. Also note that the quarterly pattern observed in the year 2022 cannot be validly interpreted because only preliminary data is available based on the reporting month, with the data being assigned to the month of death only with the publishing of the final data by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany.’
Micheal Strahan: I know from my experience in the NFL they do more tests than anything and in the course of you having your physical did anybody ever come back with any – saying you had a heart issue or anything that was abnormal?
Damar: Honestly, no. Um, I’ve always been a healthy, young, fit, energetic, uh, you know, human being, let alone athlete um so it was something that was just – that we still processing – I’m still taking through with my doctors – to see what everything was.
end
From Robert H:
Deadly ‘Vaccinated’ Skies: ‘Almost Every Day I Get Calls From Pilots with Cardiac Issues or Neurological Dysfunction’ (Video) – RAIR
And you really think the military pilots fare better ??
My friend was clear: ‘If there is more to the story, and Hamlin for whatever reason is covering it up, you go from being a hero to an anti-hero very quickly.’ His answers & body language speaks loudly
If this was due to the vaccine, then the NFL, all involved, his doctors, himself, are derelict and reckless to the other players who took the shot and boosters. If this was ‘silent’ myocarditis aggravated by catecholamine surging on the field (adrenaline) that caused the cardiac arrest, we must be informed as a public health matter and imperative. He could literally save lives during the off-season.
His interview IMO shows he is covering up. IMO, there is something we cannot know. Even if this is a game, it should not be. If people are playing with us. People just want to know the truth if it can save lives, that’s all. Uninformed players may work out on off-season and be aggressive with silent myocarditis and die. I guess it is up to us to track deaths of these players in the off-season.
Ms. Kim Pegula is in our prayers and we wish er full speedy complete recovery. We await information on the cause. Can we ask? Should we in this era? Is this ‘too private’? Is this COVID mRNA gene injection linked? We do not need to know nor want people’s private information and it is illegal to give it or share or touch someone’s private health details…
Is the surge due to adrenaline on the field, in stressful situations, the cause, bathing a myocarditis scarred heart? Causing cardiac death? IMO it seems so unless myocarditis is ruled out & vaccine
‘A Belgian goalkeeper died suddenly during a match on Saturday at the age of 25.
Arne Espeel, who plays for Winkel Sport B in the second provincial division of West Brabant in Belgium, reportedly collapsed after he saved a penalty shot against Westrozebeke 15 minutes into the second half of the game. Emergency services were unable to resuscitate Espeel and he was pronounced dead soon after he was taken to the hospital. The game was stopped.
“Winkel Sport is in very deep mourning by the sudden death of Arne Espeel,” the club said in a statement. “We wish family and friends of Arne our heartfelt condolences in this heavy loss. Football is an afterthought.””
let’s see your moves now to right this! vaccine injuries to the immune systems of the double vaccinated, the failure of the first COVID-19 booster & more immune system damage to the triple vaccinated
Dr. William Makis of Alberta is out swinging and I interviewed him recently and he just put out this new set of data and I wanted to share. Dr. Makis and I are imploring the new Premier Danielle Smith to stop the COVID gene injection completely, put a hard stop now! No children definitely. We want to see the full adverse and injuries events data.
As per Dr. Makis, ‘Albertans were owed FULL access to this data for the 0x, 1x, 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x-vaccinated until today. We have never seen it for the 3x, 4x, and 5x-jabbed.’
We want to see the data!
We are asking the new Premier to take a leadership role and put a top now! We wish a discussion on the injuries now! This Alberta graph is stunning!
‘Alberta government censored & hid all data about COVID-19 vaccine injuries to the immune systems of the double vaccinated (Part 1), the failure of the first COVID-19 booster (Part 2), and more immune system damage to the triple vaccinated (Part 3).
I haven’t even begun addressing COVID-19 vaccine damage caused to University and College students, high school students, children, newborns, pregnant women, doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers. That comes later.
COVID-19 Vaccine immune system damage is dose-dependent (more jabs leads to more injury)
A recent study of 51,011 Cleveland Clinic employees showed that those with more doses of COVID-19 vaccine were more likely to get infected with COVID-19 than those with fewer or none, and this risk of infection increased over the first 100 days after COVID-19 vaccine injection (click here).
I have seen this pattern before. Yes, the data that Alberta government permanently deleted in January 2022 showing that the double vaccinated were more likely to get infected with COVID-19 as time passed after their 2nd vaccination:
That’s almost the same pattern for the first 100 days. While the Cleveland Clinic’s data ends there, Alberta’s data showed that the immune system damage from COVID-19 vaccines continued for the first 8 months (240 days), before the double vaccinated began to partly recover from their immune system injuries.
Albertans were owed FULL access to this data for the 0x, 1x, 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x-vaccinated until today. We have never seen it for the 3x, 4x, and 5x-jabbed.
The best we got from the Alberta government was a very brief glance at data that showed the triple vaccinated had higher COVID-19 infection rates than the double vaccinated (click here) and the govt deleted that data on March 23, 2022 (click here):
During this time (March 2022), UKHSA data also showed this same relationship between more jabs and higher rates of COVID-19 infection, nicely broken down by age groups (click here):
The triple vaccinated were the most immune damaged group in every age category and had the highest infection rate in every age category.
Let’s add the last piece: the quadruple vaccinated. We have no data from Alberta but we do have data from Australia. It is, as one would expect. The quadruple vaccinated led in hospitalizations and deaths throughout (click here). It’s not even close.
COVID-19 Vaccine induced immune damage was known:
The Alberta government had to be aware of research showing the breadth and variety of immune system damage that COVID-19 vaccines were causing (beyond increased risk of infections). For example: Chen et al, “New-onset autoimmune phenomena post COVID-19 vaccination” was published online on Jan.7, 2022 (click here).
Another paper published online on June 5, 2022: Yamamoto, “Adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines and measures to prevent them”, raised many alarms about immune system damage to the vaccinated (click here):
The message couldn’t be more clear: “frequent COVID-19 booster shots could adversely affect the immune response and may not be feasible…As a safety measure, further booster vaccinations should be discontinued.”
From post COVID-19 vaccine immune system damage to skyrocketing excess mortality
In July 2022 it was clear that the triple vaccinated were disproportionately dying from COVID-19 but what about non-COVID-19 deaths? What about the 3,362 Albertans who died of “unknown causes” in 2021 ? (click here). What about the 4000+ excess dead Albertans in 2022? In a province where autopsies are all but forbidden, the answers were not forthcoming. The fact that Alberta government to this day has refused to investigate these deaths shouldn’t surprise anyone – it is one more cover-up in a long series of cover-ups. It really reminds me of the way Alberta Health Services Executives operate: once they’ve committed a crime, they’re committed to it.
COVID jabs = increased mortality; more jabs = more excess death
These days, it seems everywhere you look there is some new evidence of significantly increased mortality in the vaccinated:
UK data (2022) (source: testimony to US Senate by Insurance Analyst Josh Stirling:Vaccinated had 26% higher mortalityVaccinated under age 50 had 49% higher mortality (click here)
England (2022) (source: Daily Sceptic) (click here)Higher vaccinated areas of England had higher excess deaths
Israel, Australia, India (source: Denis Rancourt, et al.) (click here)Vaccine-dose fatality rate of up to 1% in AustraliaVaccine-dose fatality rate of 1% in IndiaVaccine-dose fatality rate of up to 0.6% in Israel
US data (2021) (source: Steve Kirsch, Medicare database (click here)Dose #1 increases your risk of death by 20%Dose #2 increases your risk of death by 20%Dose #3 increases your risk of death by 10%
Germany (2021-22) (source: Kuhbandner et al.) (click here)100,000 excess deaths ages 15-79 starting to accumulate only from April 2021 onwards (vaccine rollout)
World (2022) (source: Alex Berenson) (click here)1,000,000 excess deaths in COVID-19 mRNA vaccine countries
Conclusion:
For what will ultimately be the deadliest cover-up in Alberta’s history, it has been a rather sloppy one. Alberta’s Public Health Chief Dr.Deena Hinshaw was likely relieved to be fired, she’s not really cut out for this level of criminal activity. She seeks asylum in British Columbia, with a pharma left BC NDP govt which will protect her.
Her deputy Chief Medical Officers of Health Dr.Jing Hu (a respirologist from Wuhan, China) and Dr.Rosana Salvaterra resigned (click here) and no one knows where they are now. At least their “cash benefits” for their hard work and long nights of deleting COVID-19 vaccine injury data from government websites, kept up with inflation.
Alberta Health Services CEO Dr.Verna Yiu, who was the source of a lot of tainted and manipulated pandemic data, was fired through a revolving door right into a $700,000+ job as the new Vice President of University of Alberta (click here). She continues to make arrogant, hypocritical and tone-deaf comments on Twitter about leadership, honesty and integrity.
Albertans deserve investigations and criminal prosecutions of these healthcare leaders who caused them so much harm. I suspect we will see neither.’
Alberta government censored & hid all data about COVID-19 vaccine injuries to the immune systems of the double vaccinated (Part 1), the failure of the first COVID-19 booster (Part 2), and more immune system damage to the triple vaccinated (Part 3). I haven’t even begun addressing COVID-19 vaccine damage caused to University and College students, high school students, children, newborns, pregnant women, doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers. That comes later…
CENSORED: Millions of People Worldwide Take to the Streets to Protest Against Tyranny
February 14, 2023 4:57 pm
Most Americans living in the U.S. today are probably unaware of the massive protests that are currently happening in Europe and other places around the world. This past week has seen literally millions of people hit the streets to protest in France, Spain, Denmark, Israel, the U.K., and other places. I had to do a lot of digging to find most of this, as even the Alternative Media is not reporting on this much. You can find most of these stories in the corporate media, but they are not headline news, so you have to search for them. The world’s financial system is on the brink of collapse, so it is to be expected that the corporate media does not want these massive protests to get headline news, which could trigger even more social unrest, and eventually bank runs. But based on the videos and articles I have looked at, current protests around the world right now might be larger than what we even saw during the lockdowns back in 2021. This should be headline news, but it is not.
Hazmat Warning Issued After Truck with Hazardous Chemicals Crashes in Tucson Arizona
February 14, 2023 6:53 pm
A crash in south Tucson has prompted a shelter-in-place request for those nearby after a nitric acid spill, according to the Pima County Department of Environmental Quality. The shelter-in-place warning is in effect for all individuals within a mile radius of the crash, which is near Kolb Road along Interstate 10. Tucson Fire, Pima County Office of Emergency Management, Arizona DPS and the Department of Public Safety’s Hazardous Materials Response Unit are working on the response.
Chinese Ship Uses Military-Grade Laser to Attack Philippine Ship and “Temporarily Blind” the Crew
February 14, 2023 8:50 pm
The Philippines has accused China of “a blatant disregard” and “clear violation” of sovereignty, alleging that a Chinese coast guard ship last week directed a “military-grade laser light” at a Philippine Coast Guard ship in the hotly contested South China Sea, temporarily blinding the Filipino crew onboard. A statement released Monday by the Philippine Coast Guard said the Chinese vessel “illuminated the green laser light twice” and “also made dangerous maneuvers” to block a Philippine fleet from delivering supplies to another ship grounded at Second Thomas Shoal, also known as Ayungin Shoal, a disputed atoll 120 miles off the west coast of the Philippine island of Palawan.
“Higher Inflation. Higher Protectionism. Higher Global Tensions… For Longer”
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 10:45 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
When most of the market was saying “transitory!” this Daily was among the first to float the idea that inflation and rates risked being “higher for longer”. This was considered a ‘colorful’, counter-consensus view: like Russia invading Ukraine; or a US-China Cold War in 2017; or Trump winning the 2016 election. Yet Valentine’s Day saw a slew of Fed speakers say higher for longer in so many words; and the market –finally– shifted its rate projections up to the most dovish end of the Fed’s dot plot, at least until 2024, while starting to price in the odds of rates rising in June rather than being close to the start of a series of falls.
US January CPI was slightly stronger than expected at 0.5% m-o-m, 6.4% y-o-y headline and 0.4% m-o-m, 5.6% y-o-y core, but not the upside surprise some had feared. However, core services excluding shelter, which the Fed is focusing on, only edged down from 7.5% to 7.2% y-o-y. That was the lowest print since July 2022, but it’s still over three times higher than the Fed wants it to be. Clearly rates are *not* going to go down against that backdrop
Moreover, this was after a new statistical polish had been applied. Used car prices fell rather than rising sharply, as the industry actually recorded, and new seasonal-adjustments saw big changes, mostly downwards: unadjusted CPI was up 0.8%, not 0.5% m-o-m; food at home 0.8%, not 0.4%; fruits and veggies 0.5% not -0.5%; energy 3.1% not 2.0%; electricity 2.3% not 0.5%; and apparel 2.6% not 0.8%, etc. Did the seasons really shift that much this year?
This morning sees Bloomberg quoting Rogoff and El-Erian on inflation, with the former saying, “Back in the day, they should’ve said 3%, not 2%,” as a US CPI target, but it’s too late to change it now: he thinks the Fed will keep saying 2% while not getting there. El-Erian also says the CPI target can’t be changed without a massive loss of credibility, but that if a new target were to be drawn up today, it would be 3-4% – which is where he also sees US inflation getting stuck.
Where do financial assets trade if global inflation is stuck well above target? Note I said “global”, as this is not a US but a Western problem; and not just Western, with India and the Philippines both recently seeing large upside inflation surprises. Those talking US CPI need to look more widely and deeply – that they didn’t is why they were wrong on “transitory” calls.
Let me first live up to my promise to quote the US NFIB small business survey: “Owners are managing several economic uncertainties and persistent inflation and they continue to make business and operational changes to compensate.” Persistent inflation. Now, let’s look globally.
The Financial Times warns ‘Western intelligence shows Russians amassing aircraft on Ukraine border’. That’s the spring offensive the market hasn’t been pricing for, as the new German defence minister bitterly points out none of the EU countries who promised to deliver tanks to Ukraine while Berlin was floundering have actually done so. It’s not like timing matters in war as in markets; or that war is inflationary.
To repeat a point the market keeps missing, Dean of International and Security Studies Andrew Michta notes:
“For 20 years of the Global War on Terror, the assumption was that a major war of this kind was unlikely. The mantra was “just-in-time” when it came to munitions and supplies in the name of efficiency. That “efficiency” is today our vulnerability. The big five US defence contractors are scrambling to surge production. The situation of Europe’s defence industry is borderline dire.
The extent to which the proponents of globalization have de-industrialized the country leaves us with little capacity to switch to wartime production in an emergency. In WWII, Chrysler could retool from making cars to making tanks. How do you retool Facebook to make missiles? Consider the long wait times after orders have been placed for Abrams tanks, F-35s, etc. Bottom line: We need to invest now in expanding our defence industrial capacity and build stocks of weapons and munitions. The mantra of “just-in-time” must be replaced by “just-in-case.”
The implication is the need for more industrial capacity that can be retooled in a crisis. (By the way, as India opts to buy 220 Boeing passenger airliners in a $34bn order.) Indeed, other defense analysts point out in the fat-tail scenario of a major war in Asia, even a US victory would mean appalling military losses, and it is no position to replace its ships and planes with the current flow of production. Other countries are.
In the background, the White House has admitted three of the last four objects it shot down look to be private civilian balloons, not foreign military ones; and Iran’s President Raisi, in Beijing while nuclear tensions rise in the Middle East, heard Xi Jinping underline his “solidarity” with Tehran and that, “No matter how the international and regional situation changes, China will unswervingly develop friendly cooperation with Iran.” If people who look at dot plots could better join those dots, they would see risks of inflationary global fragmentation.
Some see it, but don’t like it. The Financial Times’ Martin Wolf warns ‘security concerns are driving the fashion for active industrial policy, but there are potential downsides’. He points to the sweeping trend CEOS see towards onshoring, reshoring, and nearshoring, and notes historically this has not played out that well. He’s right in the examples he shares. Except many countries did develop rapidly via industrial policy: the Hamiltonian US, 19th century Germany, 20th century Japan and South Korea, and 20th/21st century China. Moreover, free trade has only existed in brief historical pockets between major wars, which says something about its structural stability. Wolf just argued for land taxes, which are an even more radical policy. The missing link between his two editorials is free movement of capital: domestically, which a land tax addresses, and internationally, because if you stop the latter, trade may revert to comparative advantage as we mis-sell it today. That might be sustainable, but will first see a wrenching adjustment process – which is inflationary. By the way, expect the US to impose outbound capital controls on China.
Meanwhile, China will offer free fertility treatment to try to boost its record low birth rate; Asia-Nikkei says ‘Japan readies ‘last hope’ measures to stop falling births’; and Singapore’s budget just offered a baby bonus. Fewer workers for the same number of jobs is inflationary. To combat that, we now won’t see more outsourcing, at least not to China, while more immigration is politically unpopular. So what then? A rates response of higher for longer.
On that front, RBA Governor Lowe today told the Aussie senate that he won’t resign and that “There is a risk that the tightening of policy that’s taken place does dampen spending more than we think. But there is a risk on the other side. There is a risk that we have not yet done enough with interest rates.” I had already dismissed Lowe’s happy median talk months ago. He added, “I think the probability of a price-wage spiral is low, but if we’re wrong on that then the cost is very high. If we’re wrong on that then we are going to see higher interest rates and higher unemployment… If people think that inflation is going to be 7-8% the year after next, we’re going to have all sorts of trouble.”
Yet it would be remiss not to point out that there are deflationary signals out there – from China: just due to domestic weakness and not cheap-goods export strength, as we are accustomed to. Bloomberg carries two recent stories on that front:
Analysis stating China’s housing slump exceeds that of the US in 2007, which took 16 years to recover from in terms of new-home sales, and China might struggle to do that well: indeed, if the population is much smaller in 2039, then how can sales recover?
‘Xi’s Consumer Boom Thwarted by Secret Stock Trades, Debt Misuse’ claims borrowers are using low-cost consumer loans to prepay mortgages or buy stocks. The article notes a 37-year old borrowed CNY798,000 via two consumer loans at 3.2% and 3.65% to pay off her mortgage at 5.65%, and will apply for low-cost business loans to do more of the same, presumably on another property. In short, the desired consumer boom in China is not going to happen. Once again the market consensus is dead wrong, this time in having expected inflation, not missing it. The market is also wrong in saying China will contribute x% to global growth in 2023. If it is not importing more, then any GDP growth it sees benefits it alone, while any stimulus that pushes up producer price inflation for everyone else reduces growth elsewhere.
Higher inflation. Higher rates. Higher protectionism. Higher global tensions. For longer.
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
OPEC Output Drops As Saudi Production Falls By 156,000 Bpd
Crude oil production from all 13 OPEC members slid by 49,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January from December as top producer Saudi Arabia slashed output by 156,000 bpd, OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed on Tuesday.
OPEC’s crude oil production in January fell by 49,000 bpd from December to average 28.88 million bpd, according to secondary sources in OPEC’s report.
Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer and de facto leader of the cartel, pumped 10.319 million bpd in January, down by 156,000 bpd month on month, and more than 100,000 bpd below its quota of 10.478 million bpdas part of the OPEC+ agreement, set out at the October meeting and valid from November 2022 through December 2023, or until OPEC+ decides otherwise.
A Bloomberg survey found earlier this month that OPEC’s crude oil production fell in January due to cuts by Saudi Arabia which may have been steeper than the Kingdom’s quota.
Saudi Arabia, however, self-reported to OPEC that its crude oil production averaged 10.453 million bpd in January, up by 17,000 bpd from December.
According to OPEC’s secondary sources, Nigeria and Angola boosted their production the most, by 65,000 bpd and 47,000 bpd, respectively. But these producers are among the biggest laggards in their OPEC+ targets—they continue to pump well below their quotas.
The monthly Reuters survey pegged OPEC’s January production nearly in line with the OPEC figures from secondary sources reported today—production at 28.87 million bpd, down by 50,000 bpd from December.
The 10 OPEC members that are part of the OPEC+ collective target production were estimated to have produced around 920,000 bpd below the January target, per the Reuters survey.
Going forward, OPEC and OPEC+ don’t plan to change the course in oil production targets after Russia announced last week a 500,000 bpd cut in its output for March.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
Brazil
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0699 DOWN 36
USA/ YEN 133.69 UP 0.699/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2046 DOWN 0.01266
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 12.79 PTS OR 0.39%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 301.59 PTS OR 1.43%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.91% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 301.59 PTS OR 1.43%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.79 PTS OR 0.39%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .91%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 100.91 PTS OR 0.37%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1835.80
silver:$21.55
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 103.60 UP 48 BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY’s close.
The last few weeks have seen US macro data scream ‘no landing’ with hotter-than-expected payrolls, hotter-than-expected CPI, and now hotter-than-expected retail sales (along with rebounds in Empire Fed and NAHB sentiment). And that has all happened as The Fed has jawboned the Terminal Rate up to cycle highs at 5.25% – a massive breakdown in any monetary policy transmission mechanism…
Source: Bloomberg
And not only is the terminal rate surging but expectations for subsequent rate-cuts (Fed Pivot) have collapsed too. From hopes of over 50bps of cuts in H2 2023 at the start of February, the market is now pricing in less than 10bps of cuts…
Source: Bloomberg
Today saw stocks meltup this afternoon, extending gains from yesterday. Since the CPI print, Nasdaq is outperforming (along with Small Caps) while The Dow lags and the S&P is breaking even…
Another day, another 0DTE rampage we are sure as the market is stuck in a war between bulls eying a “no landing” and bears warning over “higher for longer” rates, that’s emboldening the use of 0DTE options to make quick profits. Over the past month, nearly one of two every options traded on the S&P 500 was 0DTE, according to Nomura’s cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott.
Today saw 19 of the 20 most active options traded in the S&P 500 names were 0DTE…
Yesterday’s short squeeze accelerated today, with “most shorted” stock basket up almost 7% from yesterday’s lows. That lifted the basket up to last Wednesday’s close – before Thursday’s crash…
In fact, Goldman’s Prime Desk noted today that hedge funds started to re-risk and net bought US Tech stocks for 11 straight days, led by long buys in the past week…
Treasury yields were higher across the curve today with the long-end underperforming this time (heavy corporate calendar). On the week, however, the belly 95Y) is the laggard (+12bps vs +2bps for 30Y)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar extended its gains off yesterday’s lows, running stops at last week’s highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Also, Bitcoin soared today, apparently ignoring Charlie Munger, trading back up to $24,000..
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum also spiked, trading back above $1650
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended the day lower but well off their lows after diving on reports of a big Crude inventory build…
Gold tumbled during the Asia session overnight and could not find a bid during the day…
…which is oddly strong given the USD strength…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that the surge in yields should be putting some pressure on the equity market valuation multiple…
Source: Bloomberg
But for now, stocks don’t care… by passing all the steps from here – higher rates sooner >> recession sooner >> crash sooner >> emergency rate-cuts sooner?
EARLY MORNING TRADING//
end
Midmorning trading:
end
LATE AFTERNOON TRADING//GRAPH FORM//TIC
Foreigners BTFD In US Equities In December As TIC Flows Show China’s ‘Official’ Treasury Dump Continues
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 04:17 PM
It appears that foreigners bought the f**king dip in December as US equities tumbled, foreign official institutions bought $1.5Bn, Private foreigners bought $53.5Bn. That is the biggest buying since Dec 2020…
Foreigners, in aggregate, also bought US Treasuries for the 8th straight month, though at a considerably slower pace…
…yet curiously, foreign official institutions (central banks, wealth funds, reserve managers), have sold Treasuries for 14 straight months…
…while foreign private investors bought Treasuries for 14 straight months…
In total, December saw foreigners (in aggregate) buying US assets across the board:
Long-term Treasuries: $19.98BN vs $54.2BN in November
Agencies: $13.9BN purchased vs $22.0BN in November
Corporate bonds: $14.38BN purchases vs $21.5BN in November
Corporate Stocks: $54.98BN purchased – the most since Dec 2020 – vs $42.9BN in November
Drilling down, we see China continue to ‘sell’ down its US Treasury holdings, but we do note that both Belgium and Luxembourg (which in the past have acted as proxies for China buying) saw UST holdings rise…
China holds $867.1b of US Treasuries, a decrease of $3.1b from last month
Belgium holds $354.3b of US Treasuries, an increase of $21.4b from prior month
Source: Bloomberg
So did ‘China’ really dump USTs?
Source: Bloomberg
Japan, the largest holder of Treasuries, sold $6bn of its holdings (to $1.1tn).
Finally, we continue to broadly see the trend of de-dollarization with gold holdings on the rise as UST holdings drift lower…
Source: Bloomberg
END
ii) USA DATA
Do not read much into this number….aggressive adjustments
(zerohedge)
US (Nominal) Retail Sales Soared In January
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 08:36 AM
After two straight monthly declines, consensus was for a big rebound (+2.0% MoM) in retail sales in January – with the almost omnipotent forecasters at BofA seeing an even bigger (+3.0%) surge.
And once again BofA nailed it as headline retail sales soared 3.0% MoM in January. That is the biggest jump since March 2021, lifting the YoY rise in retail sales up to +6.4%
Source: Bloomberg
The control group – which filters directly into GDP – saw a 1.7% surge (far better than the +1.0% exp).
Under the hood, all 13 retail categories rose last month (for the first time since COVID), led by motor vehicles, furniture and restaurants. The report showed vehicle sales climbed 5.9% in January.
Department stores sales soared 17.5%?!
Retail inventories continued to improve marginally but have a long way to go (i.e. lots of overhang still) to normalize back to pre-COVID levels…
What’s really behind the red hot retail sales?
aggressive seasonal adjustments, same as payrolls: one-time
COLA adjustment (+8.7): one-time
post-holiday spending spree to take advantage of liquidation sales: one-time
Those are all one-time factors… so do not extrapolate
Finally, as a reminder, all of this retail sales data is nominal – i.e. not adjusted for inflation. While not comparing apples to apples, adjusting nominal retail sales for CPI shows that Americans’ real spending has gone practically nowhere for 10 straight months…
So before you charge off writing about how ‘strong’ the spending data is, consider how ‘strong’ the credit card debt load is and how ‘weak’ the savings rate is for Americans struggling after the 32nd straight month of real income declines.
So hotter than expected payrolls… hotter than expected inflation.. and now hotter than expected retail sales… Get back to work Mr. Powell!
END
Generally one of the more accurate USA data points. Industrial production growing at its weakest in 2 yrs//utilities crash.
(zerohedge)
US Industrial Production Is Growing At Its Weakest In 2 Years As Utilities Crashed
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 09:23 AM
After 6 months of barely a blip in industrial production, consensus was hoping for a 0.5% MoM rise in January… but once again they were disappointed as Industrial Production was unchanged in January. That left Industrial Production up just 0.79% YoY – the weakest since Feb 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Manufacturing output actually rose 1.0% MoM, better than the +0.8% expected, and its best print since Feb 2022. That dragged the YoY move back into the green…barely.
Source: Bloomberg
The biggest headline from the report is the record 9.9% collapse in Utilities…
Capacity Utilization slid to 78.3% – the lowest since Oct 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
But the economy is “strong as hell”?
end
Homebuilder Expectations For Future Sales Just Surged By The Most Ever (Ex-COVID)
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 10:19 AM
The National Association of Homebuilders sentiment survey roared higher in February, from 35 to 42 (far better than the 37 expected) with all three factors surging, led by ‘hope’ – future sales expectations…
Source: Bloomberg
In fact, ex-COVID, this is the biggest MoM rise in the future sales expectations index… ever!
Source: Bloomberg
“Even as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy conditions, forecasts indicate that the housing market has passed peak mortgage rates for this cycle,” Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, said in a statement.
“While we expect ongoing volatility for mortgage rates and housing costs, the building market should be able to achieve stability in the coming months, followed by a rebound back to trend home construction levels later in 2023 and the beginning of 2024,” he said.
However, separate data Wednesday showed borrowing costs rebounded sharply last week, causing a pullback in applications for home loans and suggesting any rebound in housing demand will be bumpy. The Mortgage Bankers Association said the contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped 21 basis points, the most in four months, to 6.39%. Home-purchase applications slid 5.5%.
Sadly for the homebuilders, homebuyers remain far less sanguine…
Source: Bloomberg
One final reminder. As Upton Sinclair reportedly said: “it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
Have you ever met a realtor/homebuilder who didn’t think it was a great time to buy a home?
end
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS
this is awful!!!
‘Ohio Chernobyl’: East Palestine Town Hall Scrapped After Residents Report Health Problems
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 03:45 PM
Nearly two weeks after a Norfolk Southern Railway freight train with 150 cars (20 of which were carrying hazardous materials) derailed in the small town of East Palestine, Ohio, resulting in a chemical disaster, the extent of the damage to the town and surrounding communities remains unclear.
On Tuesday, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine held a press conference for the Feb. 3 derailment. He said Norfolk Southern did not classify the train as a “high hazardous material train” despite multiple cars containing toxic chemical vinyl chloride.
“This is absurd … Congress needs to take a look at how these things are handled,” DeWine said.
There’s already an effort by lawmakers on Capitol Hill and federal agencies to investigate the derailment. Epoch Times noted:
Key committees in the Republican-controlled House are holding their peace as investigations of the derailment and its environmental impact proceed.
A spokesperson for the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, led by Chairman Sam Graves (R-Mo.), said the committee was talking with the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Department of Transportation’s Federal Railroad Administration, and the railroad involved, Norfolk Southern.
“We will continue to monitor the situation and NTSB’s ongoing investigation,” the spokesperson told The Epoch Times in a Feb. 14 email.
Investigators have uncovered security camera footage 20 miles before East Palestine of the suspected railcar that caused the derailment. Footage shows one of the cars was on fire well before the small town.
“NTSB investigators have identified and examined the rail car that initiated the derailment. Surveillance video from a residence showed what appears to be a wheel bearing in the final stage of overheat failure moments before the derailment,” NTSB wrote on its website.
Michael Graham, a member of the NTSB, told reporters one day after the derailment:
“We’re also looking at a lot of different footage that has been provided to the investigators out there to determine if there’s some data on footage that we have from videos and cameras that might tell us something more that what might have happened to cause this accident.”
At a follow-on briefing on Feb. 5, Graham said investigators were analyzing locomotive footage. He said the focus was one of the rail car’s axles.
“We have obtained two videos which show preliminary indications of mechanical issues on one of the rail car axles,” Graham said.
Graham added engineers on the train were alerted by a “wayside defect detector shortly before the derailment, indicating a mechanical issue.”
“Then an emergency brake application initiated,” he continued, adding that a preliminary investigative report was expected within several weeks, though a full probe could take as long as 24 months.
As investigators pinpoint the likely cause of the derailment, the environmental impact of the controlled burn of 20 railcars that contained toxic chemicals, including vinyl chloride, ethylhexyl acrylate, and isobutylene, has released what some described as a ‘chemical nuclear bomb’ that has contaminated the town and other surrounding communities.
Following the burn, there have been numerous reports of wildlife dying, including fish and frogs in nearby streams.
People have reported that their chickens, dogs, and horses were either sick or died.
People in East Palestine and surrounding communities have reported various symptoms they can’t explain since the burn, according to News 5 Cleveland.
Therese Vigliotti said she hasn’t felt right since the controlled release and burn after train cars derailed more than a week ago.
She sent us a picture of her tongue.
“I noticed my lips were numb, the soft palate of my mouth was numb, my tongue was burning and my throat was burning,” Vigliotti said.
We asked what her biggest concern was.
“That I’m going to get cancer and die,” Vigliotti said.
Vigliotti doesn’t live in East Palestine but rather 15 miles north of the derailment site in Poland, Ohio.
Jim does call the village home.
You can hear train horns from his front porch.
“It used to not bother me hearing, now it does,” Jim said.
He too is worried about what he is experiencing.
“I’ve had a migraine. I’ve been dizzy, all my mucus membranes irritated. I haven’t felt very well since then,” Jim said.
And on a long enough timeline. People exposed to vinyl chloride might have an increased risk of developing a rare form of liver cancer (hepatic angiosarcoma), liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma), brain and lung cancers, lymphoma, and leukemia.
And these toxic chemicals have also been identified in the Ohio river, which supplies more than 5 million people with drinking water, according to local news station WLWT.
“It’s not just what was in the tanker cars. It’s what happens when they burn and combine. This may be the largest dioxin plume in world history. I know of no more serious release, ever,” explained Eric F Coppolino of Planet Waves FM.
While vinyl chloride is a precursor chemical to making PVC, any time chlorinated compounds burn there will be dioxins created. And dioxin is a manufacturing byproduct of any manufacturing process involving chlorine, from “disinfectants” to the bleaching of paper. There was plenty of dioxin in those tanker cars before they caught fire.
This mess of 14 tanker cars (really, many more, but 14 had vinyl chloride) was then set on fire by the government, apparently to make it easier to clear the railroad tracks. This was the worst possible decision. It has turned many, many miles into what should be no-man’s land. But I have not heard of one single test for dioxin being done.
About 60 miles south, the city of Steubenville detected butyl acrylate in their water intake, the same toxic chemical found in East Palestine, according to local news WTRF.
Recall the Biden administration and other federal officials were silent about the derailment for more than a week. This week, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg finally spoke about the incident.
And on Feb. 8 press conference in East Palestine, a NewsNation reporter covering DeWine was arrested. DeWine said this week that the reporter should “never have occurred in the first place.” The reporter was merely just trying to report the news.
There’s been a massive lack of transparency since the derailment happened by the government and mainstream media. And we wonder why?
Look at an alleged aerial picture (posted on Reddit) overtop East Palestine during the controlled burn. Maybe this is why?
Meanwhile, environmentalist advocate Erin Brockovich called out the Biden administration to do more for residents of East Palestine:
“The Biden Administration needs to get more involved in this train derailment now. We are counting on you to break the chain of administration after administration to turn a blind eye.”
As for Norfolk Southern, they’re expected to rack up tens of millions of dollars in costs associated with cleanup and lawsuits.
“I’ve had discussions with some people who live right near ground zero who are hesitant to come back.”
“There are people with young children, and they don’t know what effects it’s going to have,” James Wise, a local attorney who filed a class-action lawsuit against the railroad on behalf of some residents, told Bloomberg.
And you would never guess who is one of the largest shareholders of Norfolk Southern… It’s ESG-pusher BlackRock.
Things that make you go, hmm…
And by the way, East Palestine scrapped a town hall for tonight as the toxic chemicals are causing illness among residents, according to the Independent.
New technology coming:
Automated Vehicles With No Steering Wheel Or Pedals Hit US Roadways
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Driverless vehicles without steering wheel or pedals are already hitting US roadways and could revolutionize how people move about. There’s already one brand of autonomous vehicles on US roadways, with another two companies working to debut their automated transportation services soon.
In a note released Tuesday, BloombergNEF analyst Siong-Hu Wong covers the top three autonomous vehicles without steering wheels set for commercialization.
The first is Amazon-owned Zoox’s electric VH6 shuttles are already operating on California public roads. The robotaxi service is only available to employees for now but expects approvals by the state government will allow the service to be offered to the general public near-term.
In February, General Motors-backed Cruise received permission from California’s Department of Motor Vehicles to test its Origin shuttle on roadways.
Another robotaxi is Waymo’s Zeekr M-Vision, which will enter production next year. The Zeekr is similar to the other robotaxi-makers.
Automated vehicles, or the shuttles above, could be the biggest thing to hit the auto industry ever. It will entirely change the way people get around.
However, the dystopic thing about this all is that Americans must give up owning cars and instead rely on robotaxi companies for transportation. The problem with that is control.
END
Tax refunds lower due to less pandemic funds for 2022
(zerohedge)
Americans’ Tax Refunds Are Nearly 11 Percent Smaller This Year, Early IRS Data Show
As of Feb. 3, the average refund amount stood at $1,963, or down about 10.8 percent from the year-ago period, when it was $2,201 on average, the IRS data show.
The agency’s data also show that more refunds have been given out. As of Feb. 3, 6.9 million direct deposit refunds have been reported, compared with 4.46 million for the same time period last year—a 38.7 percent increase year over year.
However, more tax returns have been processed so far in 2023. About 19 million have been processed as of Feb. 3, compared with the 13 million that were processed for the year-ago period, representing a 29 percent increase year over year, according to the agency.
“I would argue that people’s tax refunds are going to be less because of the fact that they are not going to get these special pandemic provisions anymore,” Eric Bronnenkant, chief of tax at Betterment, told Yahoo Finance in a recent interview. “Obviously, everyone’s situation is unique, but on average refunds are going to be smaller due to less stimulus.”
Other tax experts and the IRS itself have stated for months that taxpayers should expect smaller returns on their 2022 taxes. The reason is that certain pandemic-related tax breaks and options aren’t available any longer.
“Refunds may be smaller in 2023,” the IRS warned last November. “Taxpayers will not receive an additional stimulus payment with a 2023 tax refund because there were no Economic Impact Payments for 2022. In addition, taxpayers who don’t itemize and take the standard deduction won’t be able to deduct their charitable contributions.”
The IRS has noted that for 2022’s filing season, the increased Child Tax Credit (CTC), Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), and Child and Dependent Care Credit applied. But those credit amounts have gone back to the pre-pandemic amounts.
Another catastrophic event: spilling of nitric acid. The fumes in high concentration could be deadly.
(zerohedge)
Truck Overturns In Arizona, Spills Nitric Acid, Shelter-In-Place Reinstated
WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 11:22 AM
An emergency shelter-in-place was reinstated Wednesday for nearby residents in Tucson, Arizona, after a truck carrying nitric acid overturned on Feb. 14, killing the driver.
“Unified Command has reinstated the shelter-in-place order for a one-mile perimeter around the incident. While crews were attempting to remove the load from the commercial vehicle, gassing occurred. Interstate 10 remains closed in both directions between Kolb & Rita roads in Tucson,” the AZ Department of Public Safety wrote in a Wednesday update.
Residents were warned to avoid the area and seek alternate routs of travel, while anyone within a one-mile perimeter of the incident has been instructed to turn off air conditioning and heaters in order to avoid bringing in outside air.
Following a crash, a commercial truck tanker overturned on the Interstate 10 highway eastbound between Rita and Kolb roads, according to the Arizona Department of Public Safety.
“The tanker involved in this collision was hauling nitric acid in liquid form,” the Arizona DPS announced on Twitter of the HAZMAT spill.
Footage of the crash posted on Twitter showed reddish-orange mist emanating from an overturned truck tanker. The post was accompanied by a message: “be safe everyone, don’t [breathe] this in.”
Liquid nitric acid is a highly corrosive substance, described by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as a “colorless liquid with yellow or red fumes with an acrid odor.”
In vapor or mist form, it can cause burning sensations to the eyes, nose, skin, and lungs. Exposure to high concentrations of this can cause pneumonitis, bronchitis, and/or pulmonary edema, which can be fatal. These symptoms can be delayed from 4 to 30 hours after exposure. Furthermore, teeth can erode when exposed to the vapor or mist form of nitric acid.
Shelter in Place Alert Issued
The Arizona Department of Transport (DOT) announced the crash around 3 p.m. local time. By 5:09 p.m., the Arizona DPS said the tanker was leaking hazardous material.
“Interstate 10 remains closed in both directions between Rita and Kolb roads in Tucson,” per the Arizona DPS. “Motorists should continue to avoid the area and seek an alternate route.” The DPS added in a Twitter post: “We anticipate an extensive closure. Please avoid the area.”
Meanwhile, the Arizona DOT said that there is “no estimated time to reopen the road.”
Canada telling New York to stop sending illegal aliens
(zerohedge)
Canada Tells NYC To ‘Immediately’ Stop Sending Illegal Aliens
TUESDAY, FEB 14, 2023 – 07:45 PM
Canadian officials have asked New York City Mayor Eric Adams to “immediately” stop sending illegal aliens across the northern US border into Canada, just one week after reports that the National Guard has been helping distribute taxpayer-funded one-way tickets from Manhattan.NYC Mayor Eric Adams (D) left, Quebec Premier Francois Legault
“Any form of assistance to migrants crossing the border where it is strictly forbidden to do so should stop immediately,” reads a statement from the office of Quebec Premier Francois Legault. “We understand that the situation of migrants in New York poses major challenges, but the situation in Quebec and particularly in Montreal is even worse and constitutes an important humanitarian issue.”
The NY Post reported last week that “thousands of new migrants” have been helped cross the US-Canada border, including some who “reported their desire to relocate to other cities, and Catholic Charities provided some assistance for their travel expenses.”
The Post also reports that migrants are tearing up their American immigration documents between Plattsburgh and the Canadian border – leaving scraps of paper from the Department of Homeland Security and Immigration and Customs Enforcement on the floor of a shuttle van which has the word “Frontera” (border) on the side.
As many as 250 migrants use the Roxham Road crossing to illegally enter Canada each day, with nearly all of them settling in Montreal, Quebec’s biggest city, Legault spokesperson Ewan Sauves said.
The situation has overwhelmed Montreal’s ability to provide housing and other public services, with the flood of new students alone equivalent to the opening of 13 new schools, he said.
Last year, 39,161 people used Roxham Road to illegally enter Canada, comprising 99.1% of all such border crossings, Sauves said. –NY Post
On Monday, NY City Hall said that officials had processed over 45,600 migrants since the spring, with around 29,100 housed in emergency shelters as of Sunday – figures which the Post suggests are likely an undercount because they don’t include migrants who are staying with relatives, friends and other people in their networks after arriving in New York.
end
An excellent read..
Victor Davis Hanson…..
Victor Davis Hanson: Bombshells, Landmines, & Nemesis
For much of 2017 through 2021, Americans suffered the “bombshell” and “walls are closing” mythologies first of Russian collusion, then of supposedly vast Russian social media investments to sabotage the election. From there we moved on to the Alfa Bank ping-pong fable, the supposed Putin bounties on U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan that Trump was said to have ignored and, of course, the idea that Hunter’s laptop was just “Russian disinformation.”
These were journalistic sins of commission, warping the news cycle to advance ideological agendas and win elections. There emerged, however, other real landmines of omission—things the media deliberately ignores, but have the potential to go off and blow up a presidency.
Taxes Paid by Mr. 10 Percent?
Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) mocks the Hunter Biden laptop scandal of a “half-fake” laptop. Yet such puerile flippancy only confirmed her own trademark arrogance and ignorance. Is she claiming the laptop was, was not, or is just sorta not genuine? Hunter’s lawyers are suing to stop the dissemination of his “half-property”?
Hunter, who never in the past has denied ownership of the laptop, has now confirmed it really was his. A revisionist Hunter should have first conferred with his dad, since, on the presidential debate stage in 2020, Joe Biden swore to the American people the laptop was a product of Russian disinformation. He cited as support “50 former intelligence officials” who signed a statement claiming as much—all organized to deceive the pre-election electorate by former CIA Directors James Clapper and John Brennan. Both previously were best known for admitting to lying under oath to Congress.
Any fair examination of the laptop’s contents would conclude that Joe Biden received percentage payments from the various quid pro quo enterprises for the merchandising of his name and status as a senator and then vice president. So it should be a simple task for the IRS to compare his reported income over those years with his net worth and yearly likely expenditures, to determine whether he paid taxes on his alleged 10 percent cut, or whether any of the Biden family paid gift taxes on their various cash interchanges with one another.
It is one thing to fight the IRS over deductions, but quite another over income. The former can become sticky matters of legal interpretation, the latter is mostly black or white: Money either came in and was reported—or not. If Biden did not pay income tax on percentage payouts to him by his family and business associates, then he committed tax fraud, and likely would be impeached.
The laptop and classified documents revelations are landmines well beyond their incriminatory evidence that Joe Biden received payments from Hunter Biden’s influence-selling team or improperly took away top secret papers. If Hunter’s trove of business assessments are found to have drawn on his father’s classified files—and there are already allegations that they did—then such use of his father’s illegally transferred federal documents for familial profit would end the Biden presidency.
No president could sustain his office if it were proven true that previously he transferred classified documents out of the White House or Senate and allowed such top secret analyses to be monetized by his son to enrich his family—and himself.
A Real Bombshell?
Octogenarian journalist Seymour Hersh’s recent allegations that the United States blew up sections of the Russo-German Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were scarcely covered by the media that otherwise runs with the usual Hersh-fed embarrassments to the U.S. government. Oddly, in this case, it stayed mum. The story was adamantly denied by the Biden Administration and most of the bipartisan foreign policy establishment.
The news media’s neglect cannot be due to any journalistic standards, because a sloppy and corrupt media long ago swore falsely that Trump let Putin put kill-bounties on our soldiers in Afghanistan, and insisted the Biden laptop was authentic evidence of Russian disinformation designed to help Trump.
So we have no idea whether the media suppression of the story was due to its usual warped ideology or a rare, disinterested standard of ignoring a conspiracy theory.
Hersh’s reporting was largely based on one anonymous source, but oddly marked by an unusual level of detail about the planning, carrying out, and purpose of the operation.
The Left had long deified Hersh for the consistently anti-American government themes in his sensationalized dispatches. His accuracy, however, is not always contested, given he was largely accurate in the disclosures about the My Lai massacre and the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuses. But in this instance, he has been met with ridicule rather than the usual adulation from the liberal media.
Still, there were a variety of circumstances that kept the smothered story breathing—and for a multitude of reasons. The only concerned countries with the operative ability to carry out such an intricate attack were likely Russia, the United States, and European Union countries. The Washington Post in December concluded that, despite initial circumstantial evidence, there was no reason to believe Russia blew up its own multibillion-dollar investment that was deemed critical for future Russian foreign exchange revenues.
While Hersh mentioned Denmark and Norway as cooperating with the United States, it is equally difficult to believe that any European Union or NATO nation would on its own attack the assets of another member, especially the shared investments of Germany that for some time has dominated the governance of EU and the policies of European members of NATO.
More disturbingly, on the eve of the Ukraine war in January 2022, Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland quite indiscreetly boasted, “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.” She did not say what she meant by “another” way.
That was not an isolated threat. Joe Biden reiterated the same warning a month later. “If Russia invades,” he said, “then there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2 . . . We will bring an end to it . . . I promise you; we will be able to do it.” His choice of “end” implied more than voluntary German disconnection from an otherwise intact Russian pipeline.
More recently, Nuland post facto expressed glee in an exchange with Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) that her earlier threat had been reified, “Senator Cruz, like you, I am—and I think the administration is very pleased that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you say, a pile of metal at the bottom of the ocean.”
Apparently, the position of the Biden Administration was not just belated official disapproval of the pipeline—as President Trump had made abundantly clear during his own tenure with sanctions. Rather, this government was pledged (“I promise you”) to “bring an end to it,” and had the ability to do just what it promised (“We will be able to do that”).
When the pipeline was actually bombed, the U.S. government expressed satisfaction with that violent act: “Very pleased that . . . Nord Stream 2 is now . . . a pile of metal at the bottom of the ocean.” It would be hard to think Nuland was praising Putin for purportedly destroying his own multibillion-dollar investment, given that Germany did stop much of its deliveries of natural gas without the ruin of the pipeline.
Even if we put aside the question of who destroyed the pipelines (and they could be rendered useless if seawater continues to erode the interior linings), it was highly unusual for the president of the United States and an under secretary of State publicly to hint at a preemptive attack against a key asset of its ally Germany and a formidable power with over 6,500 nuclear weapons.
Nor do NATO nations destroy, preemptively and stealthily, the property of other NATO nations—especially given that Germany was facing the onset of autumn and winter, and did not have the wherewithal to keep its 80 million citizens warm without the full gas deliveries through the pipeline. There are no suggestions that the German government might have winked and nodded at the explosion—given Berlin might have been otherwise afraid voluntarily to close down the pipeline given public support for the deliveries.
If the United States took extra measures—alleged in detail by Hersh—to evade legal responsibilities to apprise a select group of senators and representatives of a planned major covert operation, then that too might well be an impeachable offense.
As of now the story remains unproven, if not wild. But unfortunately it dovetails with the prior statements of the highest American officials, and the apparent strategic agenda of the United States, better than do current competing narratives—as the Washington Post reminded us in the case of Russia.
But even a slight chance that the story rings true is terrifying in its implications—preemptively attacking a nuclear power, destroying the multibillion-dollar investment of an ally and its ability to bring fuel to its strapped citizenry, and deliberately breaking federal laws to avoid congressional compliance.
Silencing Americans
Another landmine was a recent, also underreported, almost nonchalant accusation that the CIA used the FBI as a sort of entre to Twitter so the kindred federal agencies could suppress the expression of particular Americans.
Journalist Matt Taibbi published a recent disturbing trove of internal communications, apparently revealing that the CIA, with help from the FBI, consistently sought to modulate and censure content on Twitter.
Taibbi noted that the CIA was sensitive that it was prohibited by statute from the domestic surveillance of American citizens. And so it preferred the nebulous phraseology, “Other Government Agency” (OGA). At the same time, he pointed out how top Twitter executives such as top censor Yoel Roth simply could not keep up with the avalanche of requests from the FBI, and by extension the CIA, Department of Defense, and State Department. In other words, a left-wing Twitter hierarchy, infamous for selectively banning the communications and expressions of more conservative users, was outdone by the thought police of the U.S. government.
If the FBI had sought to subvert the Bill of Rights through its hire of a third-party, private contractor, the CIA knowingly broke the law, apparently convinced that the overwhelmingly left-wing control of Twitter provided the government with a golden moment to pursue agendas antithetical to the Constitution, if not patently illegal.
Finally, we are witnessing the strangest provocations to U.S. sovereign airspace in history. China apparently has been sending with impunity surveillance balloons throughout American skies. Our woke military either did not know of all of them, or could not or would not stop them, or did not disclose these apparent serial violations to their own civilian overseers.
Biden mysteriously allowed an enormous Chinese spy balloon to traverse nearly the entirety of the continental United States. When pressed, his administration issued a series of untrue statements or at least mutually contradictory excuses for its own paralysis: the device may have been just a weather balloon; it was a harmless, anemic primitive spy device; it may have been more sophisticated than we thought but we took measures to ensure our sensitive locales were protected; we could not shoot it down because it had caused no harm; we could not shoot it down because the debris might have hurt people on the ground; we could not shoot it down over Alaskan waters because they are too deep and too cold; Trump was to blame for not stopping them earlier; and on and on.
When pressed about his reaction to this Chinese sustained and successful aggression, designed either to surveille and probe U.S. strategic sites or to humiliate and embarrass America to the world as clueless or timid, or both, Biden simply said the intrusions had not damaged U.S.-Chinese relations.
The first duty of a president is to keep his country safe and secure. Joe Biden has failed that oath when he did to our airspace what he had done previously to the southern border—allowed anyone or anything to violate our sovereignty at will.
Whether any of these landmines goes off, depends on the release of information from the government. But nemesis is already playing a role.
Consider: a Democratic House majority once criminalized noncompliance with a congressional subpoena. A Democratic Ways and Means Committee institutionalized demanding and successfully obtaining the tax records of a president. A Democratic president declared the unlawful storage of classified information to be worthy of a special counsel’s criminal investigation.
A left-wing media destroyed the high-bar rules of journalistic evidence and investigation protocols through its concoction of Russian collusion and disinformation hoaxes. A discredited media claimed that any perceived presidential laxity with an aggressive foreign adversary—like China’s serial intrusions into U.S. airspace—was supposedly prima facie evidence of a compromised president “colluding” as an “asset” of an enemy.
Ironically Biden, the media, and the old Democratic House majority have provided Republicans the same tools to discover the truth which the Left had once used to destroy it.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report February 15, 2023 Issue 6949Independent View of the NewsJanuary CPI +6.4% y/y (6.2% consensus, previous 6.5%), +0.5% m/m January CPI Core +5.6% y/y (5.5% expected, previous 5.7%) +0.4% m/m
@GordonJohnson19: Services CPI (excl energy), or 58.2% of CPI inflation, just keeps going higher = the @federalreserve is NOT doing enough to alleviate the inflation that REALLY matters for the masses. Pitchforks next? https://twitter.com/GordonJohnson19/status/1625489204447969290
@FrogNews: Housing now up to 44% of the CPI-U, as I’ve been saying for over a year, housing prices are NOT going to come down as the idiots at the fed hike rates. They are only making it worse. There is no sign of decrease in housing prices… Jerome pays attention to this one. Services less housing (+7.2% y/y, +0.8% m/m).He mainly does this because he’s lost on housing. Even with his new calculation. This is not what the fed was looking for. 2-3 more rate hikes likely. (Table 3 in CPI report at link) https://twitter.com/FrogNews/status/1625507154273656832
@FrogNews: BLS owns the data, revisions should always happen. BUT: Using the methodology from just 30 days ago would have resulted in Jobs report: +84k; Monthly inflation: +0.8% (9.6% annualized). Much easier to adjust the scoreboard than the game. https://twitter.com/FrogNews/status/1625503675132301314
U.S. inflation and jobs reports shows fastest recovery in 30 years under Bidenhttps://t.co/2WYjySsero
The dolts that write remarks for The Big Guy issued a dizzying array of deceit after the CPI report.
Statement from President Joe Biden on January CPI Report – White House Inflation in America is continuing to come down, which is good news for families and businesses across the country. Today’s data confirm that annual inflation has fallen for seven straight months…We are seeing this progress even as unemployment remains at its lowest level since 1969 and job growth remains resilient. There is still more work to do as we make this transition to more steady, stable growth, and there could be setbacks along the way… Today’s data reinforces that we have made historic progress and are on the right track, and now we need to finish the job. https://t.co/jXvsWziMsc
@RNCResearch: Former Obama economist Jason Furman DEBUNKS Biden’s talking points on inflation: “Nothing in this number gives me comfort. This inflation issue is real. I don’t think it is going away anytime soon, and I think anyone who is overly calm about it is making me nervous.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1625491978820673536
(Dallas) Fed’s Logan Says More Hikes May Be Needed Than Previously Seen – BBG 11:00 ET
Richmond Fed President Barkin: “I think there is a very good case for leafing rates higher for a longer period of time to allow tightening to hit. I do think the lesson of the 1970s was very clears, which is don’t’ give up too early.” Barkin also said the risk of doing too little on inflation outweighs the risk of doing too much.
ESHs actually surged on the release of the January CPI Report, jumping 54.50 in two minutes!
After the frenzied buying on the release of the January CPI Report, ESHs sank from the daily high of 4186.50 to 4114.00 at 9:31 ET. The usual suspects then eschewed the disappointing CPI report and poured into ESHs and stocks. ESHs jumped to 4170.00 at 10:09 ET.
Seller appeared; ESHs and stocks had an A-B-C decline that ended with a daily low of 4103.75 at 11:51 ET. A Noon Balloon developed. Just before the afternoon arrived, Philadelphia Fed President Harker fomented a rally with this ill-advised and insanely irresponsible remark: “We are not done yet, but we are likely close. At some point this year, I expect that the policy rate will be restrictive enough that we will hold rates in place and let monetary policy do its work”
The dopey Harker’s “we are likely close (to pausing)” remark unleashed manic buying. Once again, a Fed official showed The Street that he was eager to appease the markets. The inept and buffoonish Harker effectively rescinded the tightening that the market exacted after the CPI report.
@jeffreyatucker: The Fed in 1913: give us all power and we will protect the dollar from inflation, unlike those rotten wildcat bankers from the old days! ($ -96+% since 1913, chart at link) https://t.co/mCfvIOOCUN
ESHs and stocks retreated when NY Fed President Williams’ speech hit the tape (14:05 ET)
Our Work Is Not Yet Done – NY Fed President Williams (at New York Bankers Association, NYC) Inflation Is Still Too High… High inflation hurts everyone, but it’s hardest on those who can least afford essentials like food, housing, and transportation. Persistently high inflation also undermines the ability of our economy to reach its full potential… After the pandemic forced mass shutdowns, unemployment surged. But as businesses reopened and the demand for workers rebounded, suddenly there weren’t enough people to fill jobs. Today, the labor market remains extremely tight… We have yet to see the gears turn for inflation of non-energy services excluding housing, which is still quite elevated, averaging 3-3/4 percent over the most recent six months… Declines in commodity and goods prices will not be enough to bring inflation to 2 percent on a sustained basis… https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2023/wil230214
Williams produced a 16-handle ESH drop; but the decline lasted only 4 minutes. Williams could not unring the pausing bell that Harker rang. Part of quick rebound rally after Williams’ remarks were released was manipulation for the VIX Fix. Yesterday was the last day of trading for February VIX options. Today is VIX expiration data.
The Harker Rally paused at 14:50 ET. ESHs and stocks flatlined until a modest dip at 15:54 ET appeared.
USHs spiked to the daily high of 128 26/32 one minute after the CPI release. They then vacillated wildly with a downside bias until they tumbled at 10:20 ET. USHs hit a bottom of 126 14/32 at 11:45 ET. USHs also had a Harker Rally but is was less robust than the ESHs spike. USHs also then flatlined.
Biden still silent after three more UFOs shot down over North Americahttps://t.co/BuzOWIavPg
@simonateba: At a telephonic… briefing… WH spokesman John Kirby says the three other unidentified flying objects shot down by the U.S. could just be small balloons tied to commercial or research purposes. Seems like @JoeBiden admin overreacting and shooting down everything in the skies.
The Big Guy (or Jill, see below) has appointed Fed VCO Lael Brainard, an uber liberal, to replace Brian Deese as Joe/Jill’s top economic adviser (Director of the WH National Economic Council). Reports say Jared Bernstein will replace Cecilia Rouse as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.
JPMorgan CFO sees nearly 20% drop in banking revenue in first quarterhttp://reut.rs/3Eacb7s
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied after a down NYSE open Robust equity rally on Harker’s insanely stupid and deleterious remark about pausing Fangs soared, a staple of the expiry-week manipulation/rally
Negative aspects of previous session The ugly Jan CPI report tightened financial conditions until Harker happened
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What the hell is wrong with Harker?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4130.32 Previous session High/Low: 4159.77; 4095.01
Mars Wrigley fined by OSHA after workers fell into vat of chocolate https://t.co/RKpO32hXnD (Life imitates art! We saw this in Willy Wonka!)
Train that derailed in Ohio carried more toxic chemicals than initially reportedhttps://t.co/juhXzBVNZ3
Ohio train derailment prompts water utility across state lines to take precautions as health concerns mounthttps://t.co/lRCCaQ9EYB
With all the flaming environmentalists on Team Biden, why have they largely ignored the environmental disaster in Ohio? Yea, we know!
@DC_Draino: Ohio Update: Authorities have found traces of toxic chemicals from the train derailment in the **Ohio river** near Cincinnati. For the record, Cincinnati is over 240 miles southwest from East Palestine. This is a regional crisis big media refuses to cover. https://t.co/GJLCMIQ2XX
Once again, the dopes that run The Big Guy’s Twitter account issued a breath-takingly tone-deaf remark.
@POTUS: Because of our climate investments, our kids will breathe cleaner air, drink safer water, and get to school powered by clean energy. That’s the future we’re building. (Except in Ohio!)
Tucker Carlson: Food, water, energy and infrastructure are being degraded https://t.co/Utfzj3AWOx An EPA spokesman explained chemicals from the derailed train did enter the local watershed and yes, they did kill fish, but the drinking water supply remains totally safe… Everything is fine… Pete Buttigieg is the official who’s supposed to be in charge of our transportation infrastructure. Technically, he’s the transportation secretary. At an appearance today… he explained, is that we have too many damn white construction workers in this country… Over the last two years, the FBI has investigated more than 40 cases of rail sabotage in Washington State alone in one state… In the last calendar year, more than a thousand trains went off the tracks in the United States. How’s that for a metaphor?… Last year there were more than 100 attacks of them in the United States, attacks on our power grid… At the same time, we’ve also seen a series of bizarre accidents befalling the food industry, threatening our food supply. That would include unexplained fires and plane crashes and processing plants to chicken feed, that seems to stop egg production… So, nobody is paying attention to the most critical infrastructure— not the racist roads but food, water, energy, transportation, infrastructure? Food, water, energy, infrastructure—what does it add up to? Oh, that adds up to a country. You can’t have a country without those things and in every single case, whatever the cause is, food, water, energy and infrastructure are being degraded. Who knows why? If you didn’t know any better, you think there might be a war going on. Why is no one talking about this? https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-food-water-energy-infrastructure-degraded
@TheChiefNerd: Damar Hamlin is Asked What Reason Doctors Gave Him for His Heart Stopping (during NFL game):“Umm, that’s something I want to stay away from”https://t.co/pVUytXblOH
Who warned Hamlin to not reveal what caused him to go into cardiac arrest? We think we know why.
@WarClandestine: Now that Hamlin refuses to disclose what the doctors said about his heart stopping… the picture is clear. The NFL is in serious legal trouble, because they pushed these shots on their athletes. This will also do irreparable damage to the Big Pharma propaganda campaign.
EU parliament votes to ban petrol and diesel cars by 2035 – AFP (LMAO! Not a chance in hell!)
@townhallcom: Reporter: “Numbers came out today that show a monthly decline in real wages, as well as an annual decline in real wages…” KJP: “The president’s economic plan is indeed working.” https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1625584299092107270
@FerroTV: After 475 basis points of hikes in the federal funds rate, all the Fed has to show for it is the S&P 500 15% off its lows, the unemployment rate at 3.4%, and underlying inflation still running hot… Forget higher for longer, we still need to get higher.”
Today is Weird Wednesday, which often experiences the peak intensity of the upward manipulation for expiration. No Fed officials are scheduled to speak; so, barring an unscheduled remark, no official will walk back Harker’s irresponsible and self-defeating pause implication.
Plus, today is VIX expiration. Ergo, traders will be euphorically bullish. PS – Watch for a trend reversal after the 14:15 ET VIX Fix. ESHs are -10.00 and USHs are +13/32 at 20:30 ET.
Expected economic data: Jan Retail Sales 1.0% m/m, ex-Autos 0.9%; Feb Empire Mfg -18.0; Jan Industrial Production 0.5% m/m, Mfg Production 0.8%, Capacity Utilization 79.1%; Dec Business Inventories 0.3% m/m; Feb NAHB Housing Market Index 37
Jill Biden for president? It’s more real than you think Jill Biden, who goes by “Dr.” by dint of a Ph.D. in education, is reportedly an increasingly important presence in the White House and is expected to serve on the campaign trail as the president’s surrogate and adviser. That’s right. The woman who last year had to apologize for comparing Latinos to “breakfast tacos,”, has, according to Bloomberg, become the most influential person in the West Wing. The departure of longtime adviser and Chief of Staff Ron Klain has created something of a power vacuum in Biden’s close circle, allowing Jill considerably more sway… Jill Biden has been described as the president’s closest confidant and has influenced not only his decision to run again but also policy decisions and key hires, such as his choice for Secretary of Education. She is fiercely protective of Joe, though it is not clear what exactly she is protecting him from.. (Shades of Woodrow Wilson, or Meghan Markle!) She weighs in regularly on the president’s schedule and presentation and has frequently been caught on camera steering Joe away from pesky reporters… at a Lunar New Year event… Jill hustled Joe away from questioners and guided him onto the stage, holding his hand and issuing instructions. Before we get too accustomed to our president being led like a trained Bassett hound on a leash, please try to envision Hillary Clinton manhandling Bill or Melania telling Donald where to go and to whom he should speak. No, you cannot… After President Woodrow Wilson suffered a massive stroke in October 1919, leaving him paralyzed, his wife Edith effectively took over, concealing his disabilities from Wilson’s staff, his cabinet and Congress.Edith Wilson ran the country until the end of her husband’s term in March 1921… https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/jill-biden-president-real-think?s=
‘Unparalleled influence’ in White House is closer to becoming president than we think, without being elected – Joe Biden’s dumpster-fire presidency has taken another disturbing turn amid reports that his wife, Jill Biden, has become the power behind the throne. The first lady, who has never held elected office, is her husband’s “closest and most protective confidante” and is influencing every major decision he makes, according to Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook… “As the campaign unfolds, the first lady is expected to assert herself on major decisions, especially the biggest of them all: whether Biden — at 80, the oldest person to ever hold the presidency — will run for re-election in the first place,” Cook wrote Jan. 28. “She supports a bid, according to people familiar with the matter, because she cares about how her husband is perceived and believes he’s better at the job than his 42% average approval rating indicates most Americans think.”… https://www.wnd.com/2023/02/unparalleled-influence-wh-closer-becoming-potus-think-wouldnt-even-need-elected/
Why are ‘Jill is the de facto POTUS’ stories appearing now? Someone is very concerned about it!
State Department mocked for ‘culinary diplomacy’ program: ‘Say some more stupid s—‘ State Department wants to use American cuisine to ‘strengthen relationships’ https://t.co/hZqv9LtFND
Ex-DNI @RichardGrenell: Gen. Milley (Chair Joint Chiefs of Staff) & Kirby (NSC Spokesman) have helped create a major credibility problem for DoD & the IC. Afghanistan, Iran, Kosovo-Serbia, Yemen, China – the list of failures and spin is long.
Mark Milley says Russia has LOST the war: Chairman of Joint Chiefs claims Putin has been defeated ‘strategically, operationally and tactically’ and is now a ‘global pariah’ ‘They’ve lost strategically, operationally, and tactically,’ said Milley in Brussels Putin ‘thought he could defeat Ukraine quickly … He was wrong’ Ukraine is preparing for new Russian push as one-year anniversary approaches https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11750383/Chairman-Joint-Chiefs-Mark-Milley-says-Russia-LOST-war.html
What did the idiotic and incompetent Milley think he was accomplishing with his injudicious, inappropriate, and out of his purview remarks?
“It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong.” — Thomas Sowell
@FaceTheNation: New Mexico Gov. (D) Michelle Lujan Grisham has asked the FBI for more agents to help tackle organized crime and drug cartels in her state, but so far, the agency has turned her down. She said on Sunday, “I’m tenacious…I’m gonna get those agents.”https://t.co/9OlPMDtlXD
@Reuters: U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, 89, says she will not seek re-election at the end of her term in 2024, clearing the path for a hotly contested race among California Democrats for her seathttps://reut.rs/3Xxrm1k
@thebradfordfile: Dianne Feinstein’s most notable accomplishment during her senate career was employing a Chinese spy for two decades. (As her limo driver)
AOC condemns Christian Super Bowl ads for making ‘fascism look benign’https://t.co/z8xPJSiNyA
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner said back in late November, interest rates were on the way down but “for the very short term.” Nenner also predicted that inflation might come down to around 6.5%. The latest CPI number clocked in this week at 6.4%. Nenner was right on both counts. Now, Nenner says inflation bottomed, and his cycle says prices for everything will go up from here. So, is the Fed going to do the so-called pivot and start lowering interest rates? Nenner says, “We are going up, not right away, but we are going up. You don’t hear the talk anymore that the Fed is going to lower rates because it is so ridiculous. If you are an insider, the Fed Funds Rate in the futures just made a new high. So, now everybody is expecting a much higher Fed Funds Rate than a few months ago. We are not out of trouble yet, and the bounce in stocks is almost over.”
Nenner sees “short term rates going up until 2024” and a “Fed Funds Rate of 6.5%.” Nenner also thinks “the stock market can go down 40%” later in 2023.
On the war front, Nenner said the war in Ukraine would get worse, and he was right again. Now, Nenner says, “If the West does not understand what is going on and starts bringing in airplanes, I am really afraid for the worst. Nobody has any idea how other countries think. They think you can push everybody around, and you can’t push everybody around. At a certain moment, they will have enough. I don’t think we are ready for a big war, not even to mention a nuclear war. So, something is going to come and make everyone very afraid, and I think this is why the markets will go down.”
In other words, people start freaking out by the middle of 2023 and the markets tank? Nenner says, “Right. Based on the war cycle, the war is going to pick up, and it is not going to end well.”
Nenner says the bull market in gold he sees in his cycles has not started–yet, but it’s only weeks away.
Nenner sees, “An enormous upside for gold. . . . I say enormous because I have inside information from the big economic summit in Davos. I heard things that can make your stomach turn. They are really concerned with taking out cash. The will have digital currency. . . . Gold can hit $2,500 (per ounce), and we said that years ago. If it goes to that, gold can go to $30,000 per ounce. That could be because maybe things get so bad they have to go back to the gold standard.”
Nenner sees higher prices for food and energy and lower prices for residential and commercial real estate.
There is much more in the 48-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner. (2.14.23)
(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec. This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it. In addition, try different browsers. Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. All the above is a way to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)
missiles and put to sea. Russian surface vessels and subs now roam within targeted strike areas waiting with the most modern missiles Russia has. And Sarmat mobile missiles have been also deployed in several areas of Russia. These missile systems have 10-12 warheads and will be delivered at Mach 20 if launched. And key Russian cities are now full protected with multi layered defense systems. Recent pictures of such systems ringing Moscow and being placed on building roof tops were not for show or busy work projects; Russians feel threatened and have zero trust of the West. So they have prepared for the worse and pray for the best. They do not seek war with the West but in Russian tradition will die to protect Russia. Whether others understand the reality of war face to face is questionable as they have not experienced loss to understand its’ toll. Russians lost 25 million people in WWII leaving most families with the lost of a loved one to remind them of the horror of real war.
COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis
harveyorganblog.com 
OPEN INTEREST Palladium futures PAH3 MAR 2023
Wednesday 15 Feb 2023: 8218!!!
Thursday 09 Feb 2023: 7805
LikeLike
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
LikeLike