FEB 16/GOLD CLOSED UP $6.80 TO $1842.05//SILVER CLOSED UP 6 CENTS TO $21.69//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $9.55 TO $929.70//PALLADIUM FINISHED THE DAY UP $57.95 TO $1531.85//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//DR PANDA//VACCINE IMPACT//THE PLOT THICKENS TO SILENCE THE UNVACCINATED AS THEY UNCOVER A KEY EMAIL//KEY FINDINGS LINK MYOCARDITIS TO RELEASE OF EPINEPHRINE IN THE BODY//DAMAR HAMLIN REFUSES TO SAY WHY HIS HEART STOPPED//USA VS RUSSIA//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE: USA DOES AN ABOUT FACE STATING THAT UKRAINE MUST NOT RETAKE CRIMEA//PUTIN TO MAKE A MAJOR ADDRESS ON FEB 21 (PEPE ESCOBAR)//LAVROV ISSUES DIRE WARNINGS THAT WAR IS CLOSE AT HAND//USA DATA: PPI MUCH HOTTER THAN EXPECTED//HOUSING STARTS AND HOUSING PERMITS ON THE DECLINE//JOBLESS CLAIMS AT 21 MONTH HIGHS//PHILLY MFG SURVEY SHOWS RECESSION//UPDATES ON EAST PALESTINE DISASTER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

February 16, 2023 · by · in Uncategorized · 1 Comment

February 16+++a//2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $6.80 at $1842.05

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.08  to $21.69

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1836.50

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 21.58

Bitcoin morning price:, 24,593 UP 543 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $24,638 UP 588  dollars

Platinum price closing  $929.70 UP $9.55

Palladium price; closing $1531.85 UP $57.95

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,471.68 UP $12.43 CDN dollars per oz

BRITISH GOLD: 1532.02 UP 6.32 pounds per oz

EURO GOLD: 1721.12 UP 3.02 euros per oz

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,834.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/15/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 02/17/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 1
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 200
132 C SG AMERICAS 22 1
323 C HSBC 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 9
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 7
661 C JP MORGAN 3 42
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 26
800 C MAREX SPEC 13
880 C CITIGROUP 3
880 H CITIGROUP 172
905 C ADM 15 1

TOTAL: 260 260
MONTH TO DATE: 14,453

JPMORGAN STOPPED 42/260

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT:   260 NOTICES FOR 26,000  OZ  or  0.8087 TONNES

total notices so far: 14,453 contracts for 1,445,300 oz (44.955 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 8 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 40,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :822 for 4,110,000 oz

 

END

GLD

WITH GOLD  UP $6.80

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

//SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//// A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 8 CENTS

AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.992. MILLION OZ (CORRECTED

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1486 CONTRACTS TO 130,646 AND FURTHER FROM THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR   $0.26 LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR THE TWO MONTHS, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.26. AND WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 179 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (0.0 MILLION OZ. ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.775 MILLION OZ.  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A GOOD  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 526 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP OZ// NEW TOTALS STANDING = 4.225 MILLION OZ  + 1.775 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 6.000 MILLION OZ////  V)  HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  -781

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 10,596 contracts:   OR 52.980  MILLION OZ . (883 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 52.980 MILLION OZ 

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       52.980/ MILLION OZ/INITIAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1486 WITH  OUR STRONG   $0.26 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 526 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF  0.54 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP= NEW STANDING:  4.175 MILLION  OZ  +  1.775 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 6.00 MILLION OZ   .. WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 960 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 

 WE HAD  8  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR   40,000   OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 3153   CONTRACTS  TO 422,963 AND FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 578 CONTRACTS.

.

 WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 3153 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR  $19.65 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP   OF 24,200 OZ //NEW STANDING: 46.566  TONNES//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of  contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $19.65 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1789 OI CONTRACTS (5.564 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED  1364 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 422,963

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1789 CONTRACTS  WITH 3153 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1364 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1211 CONTRACTS OR 3.766 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1364 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3153) TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1211  CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  // ///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION //4)   FAIR  SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

34,262  CONTRACTS OR 3,426,200 OZ OR 106.56 TONNES 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2855 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  106.56   TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  106.56/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.98% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 106.56 TONNES/INITIAL (HEADING FOR ANOTHER STRONG ISSUANCE)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A  STRONG  SIZED 1489 CONTRACTS OI TO  130,646 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 526 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR  526 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 526 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1486 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE  526 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS  OF 960 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.80MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  $0.26 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold/silver commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.46 PTS OR 0.96%    //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 175.50 PTS OR 0.84%      /The Nikkei closed UP 194.58 PTS OR 0.71%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .82%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.85555 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.86666//    /Oil UP TO 78.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.64   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3153 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 422,963 DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $19.65 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL  SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1364 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  APRIL 1364 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1364   CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED  TOTAL OF 1789 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1364 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 3153 CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE FALL  IN PRICE OF $19.65. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. TODAY THE SPEC LONGS WERE RINSED OUT!!

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:    FEB  (46.566)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 46.566 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $19.65)  //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1789 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI  OF 5.564 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.219 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP   OF 24,200 OZ OR 0,7527 TONNES//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 46.566 tonnes … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $19.65.  

WE HAD -578 CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES ADDED TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1789 CONTRACTS OR 178900 OZ OR 5.564 TONNES

Estimated gold comex today 155,765// poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  180,008/// poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR  FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //FEB 16//

//

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 174,290.328 oz

Delaware
JPMorgan

includes 10 kilobars
from Delaware

 







 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today260 notice(s)
26000 OZ
0.8987 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  518 contracts 
  51,800 oz
1.611 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month14,453  notices
1,445,300
44.955 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits:  0

total deposits: NIL oz

 customer withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Delaware  321.51 oz  (10 kilobars)

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 173,968.518 oz  (real gold leaving)

total withdrawals: 174,290.328 oz ..(5.421 tonnes)

Adjustments;  1  

 customer to dealer/

Delaware  701.994 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 778 contracts having lost 370  contracts. We had 612 notices

filed on Tuesday so we gained a huge 242 contract or an additional 24,200 oz will stand for metal at the comex  

March gained 20 contracts to stand at 1795.

April lost 3605 contracts down to 339,527

We had 260  notice(s) filed today for 26,000 oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  3  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 260  contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 42 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14,453 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (FEBRUARY 778 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  260 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,497,100 OZ  OR 46.566 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   active month of February. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:

No of notices filed so far (14,453 x 100 oz+   778 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (260)x 100 oz} which equals 1,497,100 oz standing OR 46.566 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 46.566 TONNES.  SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION. 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

we had one adjustment of 110,631.591 oz Brinks

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,812,106.420 OZ   56.36 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  21,824,353.587 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  10,989,283,391     (341.812 tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,835,070.190 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,177,177 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 285.44 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

FEB 16/2023//INITIAL. SILVER CONTRACT FOR FEBRUARY

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory408,960.561 oz
Brinks
CNT
Int Delaware
Delaware
Loomis

Manfra








































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory115,045.040 oz
Manfra




















 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)8 CONTRACT(S)  
 (40,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)23 contracts 
(115,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)822 contracts
 (4,110,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Manfra:  15,045.040 oz

Total deposits: nil oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 146.353 million oz/288.4171 million =50.73% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 6

i)Out of CNT:  102,204.953  oz

ii) Out of Brinks:  2962,000 oz

iii) Out of Int Delaware 68,662.690 oz

iv) Out of Delaware  3022.138 oz

v) Out of Manfra: 212,290.081  oz

vi) Out of Loomis:  19,318.700 oz.

Total withdrawals; 1,977,554.829 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.784MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 288.171

 MILLION OZ 

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB/2023 OI:  31   CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED  5  CONTRACT(S.).

WE HAD 5 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 10 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 50,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX 

March LOST 2715 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 59,463 contracts

April GAINED 20 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 72.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:8 for 40,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  61,491// fair to good  

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 66,275 contracts (good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 822 x  5,000 oz = 4,110,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(31) and the number of notices served upon today 8 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month:822 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB (31 – number of notices served upon today 8) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 4.225 million oz  + PREVIOUS 1.775 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 6.000MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES 

FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES

JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 920.79  TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1  CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//

CLOSING INVENTORY 483.992 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

Paulsen is nothing but a goofball.

(Peter Schiff)

Billionaire John Paulson: You Need Gold, Not Dollars

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 07:45 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson said you’re better off owning gold than dollars.

Why?

Because he thinks the dollar is set up for long-term depreciation as the world drifts toward dedollarisation.

Paulson talked about the dedollarisation trend in an interview with journalist Alain Elkann.

Paulson said the trend is toward dedollarisation, but it will take a while to happen. While the US isn’t the economic powerhouse it once was, it remains dominant in terms of reserves and trade. But other countries, particularly China, have undercut America’s economic power. That is eroding the power of the once-mighty greenback.

Other countries do not want to rely on the dollar as much as they have in the past, and the US also has an enormous deficit with the rest of the world in terms of trade and investment balances that used to be very positive, but now it’s very negative. That points to the intermediate and long-term depreciation of the dollar versus other currencies.”

He also noted that the extraordinary amount of money printing by the Federal Reserve has also undercut faith in the US dollar.

A lot of our growth has been based on fiscal spending that has been financed by the Fed buying the debt of government. The Fed balance sheet has exploded due to ‘quantitative easing’, a polite way of saying ‘money printing’, and inflation resulted. If you had dollars and 9% inflation, this year you lost 9% of your money; interest rates were nowhere close to compensating for that loss.”

With this backdrop, a lot of investors and central banks are looking for an alternative to the dollar. As a result, Paulson said, “gold is rising again.”

I say again because it’s been the reserve currency of the world for thousands of years, a legitimate alternative to holding the dollar or other paper currencies. There has been a significant increase in demand from central banks to replace dollars with gold, and we’re just at the beginning of that trend. Gold will go up and the dollar will go down, so you’d be better off keeping your investment reserves in gold at this point.”

Paulson isn’t merely speculating. Central bank gold buying set a record in 2022.

But why gold and not some other currency, such as the Swiss franc or the euro?

The other currencies will likely rise in value against the dollar, but each has their own issues. The European Central Bank (ECB) has also printed a significant amount of money, and if you keep your money in fiat currencies you face the risk, due to geopolitical events, that your reserves can be seized. As the central banks did with Russia. China probably think that as they have so much of their reserves in dollars, if they get into a geopolitical spat with the Western world over Taiwan or something else there is a possibility these reserves will be frozen, like they did with Russia.”

You avoid that counterparty risk when you hold gold.

If you possess physical gold you don’t face that risk. You also have the potential for appreciation. We’re at the beginning of trends that are going to increase the demand for gold, and inflation and geopolitical tensions will determine the rate at which gold increases. This year gold will appreciate versus the dollar, and also over a three, five and 10-year basis.

 

end

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:

China’s Ensnared In The Middle-Income Trap

WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 10:25 PM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

China has fallen victim to what economists call the middle-income trap. Economists consider a low-income country to have around $5,000 annual income per capita. Middle-income countries have between $8,000 and $15,000 annual income per capita. High-income countries begin at around $20,000 annual income per capita.

China’s per capita annual income is $12,970 — solidly in the middle income category. By the way, in the U.S. it’s $75,180, among the highest in the world (second to Switzerland).

Due to China’s extreme income inequality, it is more useful to think of China as having two populations. One population of about 500 million urban workers has an annual per capita income of about $28,000, while a second population of about 900 million villagers has an annual per capita income of about $5,000.

That would put the 900 million villagers solidly in the lower income category, not even close to middle income. And there is extreme income inequality within the 500 million high-income groups such that most of those would have a middle income of about $12,000 per year, while a select few would be earning millions of dollars per year each.

China is predominately a low-income country with a significant middle-income cohort and a tiny slice of the super-rich. This income inequality makes China’s climb out of the middle-income ranks even more difficult. And the super-elite cohort is a potential source of social unrest among the less well-off.

The conventional wisdom is that the rise from low-income to middle-income status is fairly straightforward. You begin by moving tens of millions (or in China’s case, hundreds of millions) of people from rural villages to cities. You provide decent if spartan housing, public transportation, and attract foreign direct investment to build manufacturing plants.

With some training, the city residents become adept at assembly-style manufacturing. Low labor costs allow goods to be assembled cheaply and exported at attractive prices. The cycle feeds on itself with more migration, more direct foreign investment, and expanded manufacturing capacity. Per capita income rises from the low to middle-income range.

But to make it to the big leagues of high-income status, you need high technology applied to high-value-added innovation and manufacturing. China lacks this. China advocates seem impressed that 90% of our iPhones come from China. That’s true, but Chinese value-added is only about 6%. If an iPhone costs $1,000, only about $60 goes to China’s net of import costs and royalties.

In fact,very few countries (excluding OPEC members) have ever made this leap from middle-income to high-income. The only examples in Asia are Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore.

This list leaves many more countries (Malaysia, India, Turkey, Thailand, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Russia, Chile, and others) stuck in the middle-income trap with China.

High growth from a starting point of low-income to middle-income is not surprising and should be expected. It’s not a “miracle.” It’s just what happens when you clamp down on corruption, build enough infrastructure, and move millions from the country to the city. China’s done that.

The key variable in forecasting Chinese growth in the years ahead is therefore technology.

Can China not merely license foreign technology (at a high cost), but develop its own technology ahead of advanced-economy competitors?

The outlook here is not good for China.

They have shown little or no capacity to invent or produce in areas such as advanced semiconductors, high-capacity aircraft, medical diagnostics, nuclear reactors, 3D printing, AI, water purification, and virtual reality.

Projects that China has on display that are advanced (such as their bullet trains that run quietly at 310 kph) are done with technology licensed from Germany or France or are done with stolen technology. China has done little innovation on its own.

But the stolen technology channel is being shut down by bans on advanced semiconductor exports to China, and sanctions on the use of 5G systems from Huawei, for example.

On top of all that, China faces powerful economic headwinds in the form of excessive debt, adverse demographics, collapsing real estate markets, and a lack of oil and natural gas reserves. The country is also trying to reopen from its pandemic failures at a time when the world may be entering another global recession worse than 2008.

China also faces powerful geopolitical headwinds as a result of its genocide against the Uyghur minority, involuntary organ harvesting from political prisoners, concentration camps, female infanticide (over 20 million baby girls killed), suppression of religion, censorship, social credit scores, house arrests, and expropriation from entrepreneurs like Jack Ma of Alibaba Group.

Above all, China is handicapped by its return to Mao-style Communism under the leadership of the new Emperor for Life, Comrade Xi Jinping.

Xi has largely abandoned the relatively open economic policies of Deng Xiaoping, which prevailed from 1992 to 2007 under the leadership of Deng’s successors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, with an updated version of Mao’s policies which place the Communist Party and its “core leader” at the center of all decision making and economic direction.

China’s economic headwinds can be summed up in three words — debt, demographics, and decoupling.

There is substantial empirical evidence that national debt to-GDP ratios in excess of 90% result in slower growth. It’s tough to precisely determine China’s, but its debt-to-GDP ratio is probably about 350%.

This problem is exacerbated in China by the fact that much of the debt is not spent productively. I have visited construction projects in the countryside of China where entire cities visible to the horizon were being built from the ground up.

Along with the cities were airports, highways, golf courses, convention centers, and other amenities. It was all empty. None of the buildings were occupied except by a handful of show tenants. Promises of future tenants rang hollow. The construction did create jobs and purchases of materials for a few years, but the debt-financed infrastructure was completely wasted.

The only ways out of a debt trap of the kind China has constructed are default, debt restructuring or inflation.

The last two are just different kinds of defaults. The situation does not necessarily resolve itself quickly. The debt burden can persist for years. Just don’t expect robust growth while it persists.

China’s birth rate is now below what is called the replacement rate. That rate is 2.1 children per couple. China’s current rate is reportedly about 1.6, but some analysts say that the actual rate is 1.0 or even lower. At that rate, China’s population will shrink from 1.4 billion to about 800 million in the next 70 years.

That’s a loss of 600 million people in a single lifetime.

If you assume productivity will remain constant (a reasonable assumption if China fails the high-tech transition), and the population drops by 40%, then it follows that the economy will shrink by 40% or more. That’s the greatest economic collapse in the history of the world.

In all, the pandemic, demographics, debt, decoupling, technology, and global recession should negatively impact Chinese growth in the years ahead.

This growth story inevitably bleeds into geopolitics in terms of a potential invasion of Taiwan and war in the South China Sea.

It is no doubt the greatest economic and geopolitical drama playing out in the world today with important implications for all investors.

end

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//

Barrick eyes Nevada gold mines, won’t bid for Newcrest

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-02-15 11:55Section: Daily Dispatches

By Divya Rajagopal and Helen Reid
Reuters
Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Barrick Gold Corp. would be open to taking over Newmont’s stake in its Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, CEO Mark Bristow said today, after Newmont’s $16.9-billion bid for Newcrest ramped up pressure on gold miners to do deals.

The Newcrest acquisition by Newmont, if successful, could result in the enlarged company shedding some assets.

“I’ve always said that the best assets that we haven’t got are the other parts of our joint ventures,” Bristow told Reuters in an interview. “If there was a way of acquiring those assets, I think we would be desirous of acquiring them.”

Barrick beat analysts’ estimates for quarterly profit and announced a share buyback of up to $1 billion after record payouts to shareholders last year.

Bristow stuck to the company’s “build, not buy” approach and ruled out the possibility that Barrick would launch a counter bid for Newcrest. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/barrick-gold-beats-quarterly-profit-estimate-plans-1-bln-share-buyback-2023-02-15/

end

Newcrest which was once upon a time owned by Newmont so far tells their former parent to take a hike.  If they want them they must bid higher.

Sydney Morning Herald/GATA

Newcrest tells Newmont to raise its acquisition bid

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-02-15 21:42Section: Daily Dispatches

By Nick Toscano
Sydney Morning Herald
Thursday, February 16, 2023

Top Australian gold miner Newcrest has rejected a takeover proposal from U.S. mining giant Newmont, arguing that it undervalues the company, but has agreed to open its books to see if it can extract a higher offer from the suitor.

Newmont, the world’s largest listed gold miner, launched a bid this month to acquire all of Melbourne-based Newcrest’s shares at a 22% premium to their previous closing price in a deal that values the company at nearly $US17 billion (A$24.4 billion).

In an update to investors today, Newcrest said its board had considered the indicative offer but had unanimously determined to reject it as it “does not represent sufficient value for Newcrest shareholders.”

“To determine if Newmont can provide an improved proposal for consideration by the board that appropriately reflects the value of Newcrest, the board has indicated to Newmont that it is prepared to provide access to limited, non-public information on a non-exclusive basis,” it said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/newcrest-rejects-25b-takeover-offer-from-us-giant-newmont-20230215-p5ckvm.html

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: NICKEL +

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8555

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8666

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.46 PTS OR 0.96%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 175.50 PTS OR 0.84% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 194.58 PTS OR 0.71%  

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  103.62 Euro RISES TO 1.0700 UP 9 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 133.96/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN-//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.484%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.345%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.533…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.270//

3j Gold at $1834.00//silver at: 21.54  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND  18/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 74.76//

3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and  84 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 133.96/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .500% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9228– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9874 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.7990% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.864 UP 1 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,85…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.535%  UP 5 BASIS PTS

end

i.b  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Drop Ahead Of Data Barrage, More Fed Speakers

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 08:10 AM

US stock-index futures dropped, reversing earlier gains before a barrage of economic data including jobless claims, housing starts and permits, and the Philly Fed as well as no less than four fed speakers, fading a two-day rally when investors welcomed buoyant US retail data and dismissed the risk of a hawkish response from the Federal Reserve trying to keep inflation in check.

S&P 500 futures traded near session lows, down 0.2% around 7.30am ET, while Nasdaq 100 futs drigted about 0.3% lower erasing an earlier gain. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up 16% this year and approaching a bull market as investors price in a growing likelihood of a soft landing for the economy. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index retreated, lifting all Group-of-10 currencies. Treasuries advanced, mirroring gains in UK bond markets. Oil fell and gold edged higher, while Bitcoin climbed for a third day to approach $25,000 for the first time since August. 

Among premarket movers, Cisco Systems Inc. jumped 4% after the communications equipment company raised its full-year forecast, a bullish sign for spending on tech infrastructure. More than a dozen analysts raised their price targets on the stock, with several noting that the company’s ability to clear the order backlog built during the pandemic is helping it combat a slowdown in tech demand. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks also rose in premarket trading as Bitcoin inches closer to the $25,000 level, extending gains for a third consecutive session. Riot Platforms +4.5%, Marathon Digital +3.4%. Shopify wasn’t so lucky, and its shares tumbled as much as 9.7% in the premarket after the cloud-based commerce platform’s first-quarter revenue forecast was weaker than expected. Analysts said strong 4Q results were largely offset by the company’s “conservative” outlook. Here are the most notable premarket movers

  • Roku shares rise as much as ~11% in premarket trading after the streaming-video platform reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a revenue forecast that was ahead of consensus. Analysts were positive about the company’s move to check operating expenses and target to have Ebitda profitability in 2024.
  • Seagen Inc. jumps as much as 7.5% in US premarket trading after the cancer-focused biotech posted a top- line beat for 4Q22 and 2023 guidance that fell in-line with estimates, prompting an upgrade at Raymond James and several other brokers to raise their price targets. Analysts note the positive outlook for the commercial expansion of the company’s cancer drugs, adding that while the biotech could start to turn a profit, management’s 2023 focus will be investing into the pipeline.
  • RingCentral falls as much as ~13% in premarket trading on Thursday, after the software company forecast subscription revenue that was weaker than expected. Many analysts said the weak results should be offset by the company’s cost-cutting efforts.
  • Shares in Emergent BioSolutions soar 16% in US premarket trading, after the life sciences company’s Narcan spray, used for treating opioid overdoses, got the nod from an FDA panel, which ruled the drug was safe for use without a doctor’s prescription.
  • Twilio shares surge as much as ~15% in US premarket trading, set for their biggest gain in three months, after a forecast-beating profit outlook prompted analysts to raise their price targets on the software maker. While brokers said the macroeconomic backdrop could still hamper growth, they noted that Twilio’s focus on turning a profit showed it is prioritizing financial prudence. .

“A softer landing appears more likely given the strong consumer and the expectation that wages will keep heading up as labor markets remain tight,” said Louise Dudley, portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “The positive retail sales numbers contribute to expectations that the US market can ride out the monetary tightening.”

“In light of the recent good US macro data, the market narrative is switching towards a ‘no-landing’ scenario where a recession could actually be avoided,” said Kevin Thozet, member of the investment committee at Carmignac Gestion in Paris.

“US long-term yields rising alongside risk assets suggest a recession isn’t expected in the second half of 2023,” he added.
At Swissquote, analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya took a similar view. “The latest economic data clearly suggests that the US economy remains resilient to the interest rate hikes, and that soft landing is possible,” she said, adding that “the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario is reflected in US equity prices right now.”

European stocks rose for a fourth day, underpinned by positive corporate updates from Airbus SE, Standard Chartered Plc and Commerzbank AG. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.3 to its highest level in a year with media, telecoms and banks the best-performing sectors. Here are some of the most notable movers:

  • Standard Chartered rises as much as 3.7% in early trading after announcing a buyback and higher returns guidance that offset an increase in impairments in the fourth quarter
  • Pernod Ricard shares jump as much as 5% after the French spirits company’s first-half results comfortably beat the consensus and it announced a large stock buyback
  • Orange shares rise as much as 5.5% after analysts said the telecom operator’s strategic direction and medium-term targets outlined by new CEO Christel Heydemann were reassuring
  • Tenaris gains as much as 9.6%, the most intraday since July, after posting strong fourth-quarter results
  • Centrica rises as much as 6.3% in early trading, with shares reaching their highest since May 2019, after the British Gas parent reported full-year operating profit that beat estimates
  • Kerry shares rally as much as 5.1%, the most since Nov. 10, after the food company’s earnings, with Morgan Stanley highlighting a solid outlook against an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop
  • Nestle shares fell as much as 1% after the food and beverage company reported full-year organic revenue growth that missed estimates
  • Moneysupermarket shares fall as much as 9.6%, the most intraday since October, after the price comparison service’s revenue growth slowed in the fourth quarter and missed expectations
  • Klepierre shares fall as much as 4.3%, the most since Jan. 10. The French mall landlord’s FY22 results are relatively solid yet analysts remain cautious on its outlook
  • Heineken N.V. falls as much as 1.5% after Femsa’s board approved the sale of its stake in the brewer in the next 24 to 36 months after undertaking a strategic review
  • Renault shares fall as much as 2.5% giving back initial gains, even after the French carmaker unveiled guidance for 2023 operating margin and free cash flow ahead of analyst expectations
  • Sinch falls as much as 18%, the most since July, after the Swedish cloud communications firm reported fourth quarter results that missed estimates

Earlier in the session, equities advanced across Asia as traders awaited key US employment data, although initial gains in Chinese stocks evaporated on geopolitical worries. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.4%, the most since Feb. 1. Samsung, Tencent and Alibaba were among the main contributors to the surge, also helping a rebound in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index after it had fallen almost 10% from a January peak through Wednesday. Onshore Chinese shares closed lower as a joint communique between China and Iran on expanding cooperation acted as the negative trigger, coming weeks after the US said it would increase pressure on China to stop buying Iranian oil. The MSCI regional gauge is still down more than 3% from a Jan. 27 peak. In terms of the next near-term catalyst, traders expect to see an uptick in jobless claims in the US when the data is announced later Thursday, which could ease the pressure on the Federal Reserve for aggressive policy tightening. The bull-market run in Asian shares slipped this month as investors began to look for catalysts beyond China’s reopening with the jury still out on the pace of US interest rate hikes. Hong Kong benchmarks turned up again Thursday, however, as investors returned following the recent pullback. “I think the rebound is more likely driven by investors waiting on the sidelines looking for a good entry point into China tech,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. “Many have missed the sector’s rally from October, and the 10% decline in the past 3 weeks is a good opportunity.”

Japanese stocks rose, following US peers higher after strong economic data.  The Topix Index rose 0.7% to 2,001.09 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.7% to 27,696.44. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 2.1%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 1,546 rose and 534 fell, while 83 were unchanged. US retail sales in January rose by the most in two years, with cars, furniture and restaurants gaining the most.  “Following the announcement of US retail sales, US stocks increased,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management. “It is favorable that consumer durables, which had been adjusted due to Covid special demands, was firm rather than in energy and food which were temporarily higher.” 

Australian stocks gained, with the S&P/ASX 200 index rising 0.8% to close at 7,410.30, after Australian unemployment unexpectedly jumped as the economy shed jobs for a second straight month.  The stock benchmark was boosted by gains in consumer discretionary and real estate stocks. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.6% to 12,157.75.

Indians stocks were mostly higher as investors sought cues from companies’ outlook for future earnings growth as the results season for the December quarter came to a close.  The S&P BSE Sensex was little changed at 61,319.51 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.1%. Sixteen of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector gauges advanced, led by realty and metal firms.  The Information technology gauge rose 1.3%, its third straight advance to the highest since Dec. 1 as most companies surprised analysts with a wider-than-expected expansion in profit and a robust outlook for clients’ spending on their services.  Tech Mahindra contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 5.6%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 14 rose and 15 fell, while 1 was steady.

In FX, the Dollar Index is down 0.1% while the Australian dollar is the strongest among the G-10 currencies. The euro climbed 0.2% to 1.0709 and one- month implied volatility in the currency rose as the tenor now captures the next ECB decision; although the relative premium remains below parity, options may soon turn overpriced. Bunds edged up as traders pared back bets slightly for further interest-rate rises by the ECB. The pound rose 0.2% to $1.2054 after closing 1.2% lower on the day on Wednesday following cooler-than-anticipated inflation data and hotter-than-expected US retail sales. Gilts advanced for the second day, led by the shorter end of the curve, as markets priced in the possibility of less monetary tightening by the BOE. Improved risk sentiment helped the Australian dollar erase an earlier loss after the nation’s jobless rate unexpectedly climbed

In rates, Treasuries are mostly higher, led by front-end following late Wednesday pricing of Amgen’s $24b jumbo deal. 10-year TSY yields were around 3.785%, richer by ~2bp vs Wednesday’s close and outperforming bunds and gilts by ~2bp in the sector. US yields are richer by 4bp-5bp across front-end of the curve with long-end slightly cheaper on the day, extending Wednesday’s steepening move; 2s10s, 5s30s spreads wider by 3bp and 5bp. Recent steepener stop-outs have left curve positioning cleaner, setting stage for re-steepening of spreads.Gains accumulated during Asia session and London morning, led by short-maturity gilts. In Europe, front-end bonds outperform and in particular the UK where traders pared back bets on additional rate hikes by the Bank of England.  UK money markets trim BOE tightening premium by as much as 7bps, anticipating slowing inflation. The US has a $9b 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm

Crude futures decline with WTI down 0.4% to trade near $78.30. Spot gold is little changed near $1,838

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include January’s PPI, housing starts and building permits, the weekly initial jobless claims, the February’s Philadelphia Fed business outlook. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta, Nagel, Lane and Makhlouf, the Fed’s Mester, Bullard and Cook, BoE chief economist Pill and BoC Governor Macklem.Bitcoin is firmer on the session and at the top-end of parameters, though is yet to convincingly test the USD 25k mark to the upside.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,160.00
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 164.71
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 537.38
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,696.44
  • Topix up 0.7% to 2,001.09
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 20,987.67
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,249.03
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 61,413.83
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 7,410.31
  • Kospi up 2.0% to 2,475.48
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 466.57
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.46%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0699
  • Brent Futures little changed at $85.32/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,837.70
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.19% to 103.72

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  1. China warned the US that rising tensions may jeopardize talks as both nations seek to repair ties in the aftermath of the balloon saga. Antony Blinken and Wang Yi are heading to a security summit in Germany where they may meet on the sidelines. Adding to the friction, China will impose hefty fines on Lockheed Martin and Raytheon over arms sales to Taiwan. BBG
  2. The Chinese Commerce Ministry said it blacklisted Lockheed Martin and an arm of Raytheon Technologies over the companies’ arms sales to Taiwan. Putting the companies on its “unreliable entities list” prohibits them from export and import activities related to China. WSJ
  3. Ukraine says the worst is probably over in terms of Russia’s attacks on its energy infrastructure thanks to improved defenses and Moscow’s exhausted military capabilities. BBG
  4. The ECB should start raising its interest rates in smaller increments and avoid committing to future moves as inflation in the euro zone falls, ECB board member Fabio Panetta said on Thursday.
  5. Blackstone’s Jonathan Gray expects the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to 5.25% to 5.5% and will then hold there an extended period of time, despite emerging signs of slowing inflation. The Federal Reserve is likely to take rates up to that level “for a while,” the president of the world’s biggest alternative asset manager said at an event in Hong Kong. The market is “too optimistic” over the economy weakening, he said. BBG
  6. Credit Suisse’s Michael Klein, who’ll run First Boston, told the unit’s staff they’ll be shareholders. He said the super boutique will be profitable and that should mean this year’s ugly bonus round won’t happen again. The bank is exiting distressed debt and special-situations trading. It also revealed it has paid $210 million to date in its long-running legal fight with Georgian tycoon Bidzina Ivanishvili. BBG
  7. Chip trouble. ASML data stolen by a China-based ex-employee were from internal software used to store technical information about machinery, people familiar said. Further afield, a US official said Russia is still procuring foreign chips and tech through intermediaries including Iran and North Korea. BBG
  8. The Pentagon is reviewing its weapons stockpiles and may need to boost military spending after seeing how quickly ammunition has been used during the war in Ukraine, the most senior US military official said. FT
  9. KPMG becomes the first of the “Big 4” accounting firms to cut its headcount following a sharp slowdown in its consulting business (KPMG will trim its workforce by ~2%, or 700 people). FT
  10. The S&P 500 risk premium is the lowest since 2007. Very low risk premiums can portend poor returns over the next few years…

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks gained as the region took impetus from the US where participants digested a slew of data releases including stronger-than-expected retail sales and better-than-feared NY Fed Manufacturing. ASX 200 was firmer after several key earnings releases although gains were capped by disappointing jobs data which showed a surprise contraction in Employment Change and a higher Unemployment Rate. Nikkei 225 was led by strength in auto manufacturers including Toyota which plans to boost output next month, while data releases were varied as machinery orders disappointed but trade data was mixed. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the improved risk tone with tech front running the outperformance in Hong Kong and with the mainland also underpinned by China’s support pledges.

Top Asian News

  • China’s NDRC said shortcomings and difficulties still exist in employment, education, medical care, childcare, elderly care, housing and ecological protection. NDRC added that it will boost the income of urban and rural residents, as well as improve the consumption capacity of low and middle-income residents. Furthermore, it will support improvement in spending on housing, NEVs and elderly care services, among other areas of consumption, according to Reuters.
  • China’s Industry Minister said China’s industrial and information development is facing a more severe and complex external environment as the US escalates suppression of China’s advanced manufacturing industry, according to Reuters.
  • China’s Politburo Standing Committee says the current COVID prevention situation in China is good overall, declares victory in COVID control.
  • Japan’s Banking Lobby Chief expects the BoJ to steer an exit from massive monetary easing at some point in the future, if it can forsee sustained and stable CPI and wage growth. Policy adj. could increase volatility in capital/financial markets., prior 1.38m

European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, in a continuation of APAC trade with fresh developments somewhat limited ex-earnings. Sectors are mostly in the green with Media outperforming post-RELX, Telecoms bolstered by Orange & Vodafone, Banking by Commerzbank and Standard Chartered; for reference, heavyweight Nestle is lower as its headline metrics missed slightly. Stateside, futures are little changed overall after ending Wednesday’s session firmer after initial data-induced weakness, ES U/C, ahead of numerous Central Bank speakers. Sony (6758 JT) Chip unit head sees limited impact from chip export curbs to China by US, Japan, and the Netherlands, expects global smartphone demand to recover in H2 this year, inventory levels a concern.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Panetta says the ECB should not unconditionally pre-commit to future policy moves, the extent and duration of monetary policy restriction matters now that rates are in restrictive territory. Headline inflation could fall below 3% towards the end of the year. Core inflation cannot turn on a dime and will eventually follow headline inflation. Wages are an upside risk and accelerating wage growth raises the spectre of a wage-price spiral.
  • EU Top Court Advocate General in the Polish FX Mortgage case says Banks may not demand remuneration for use of capital in contracts rendered invalid; the possibility of demanding remuneration from banks by consumers should be based on Polish law and decision is up to Polish courts.
  • UK PM Sunak and EU’s von der Leyen are to speak before the end of the week with the text of the Northern Ireland protocol deal to go before the DUP on Monday, according to The Times; the text will be presented to the DUP on Monday before the cabinet gets to view it on Tuesday. Government sources are confident the deal with satisfy unionist tests for backing a deal.

FX

  • DXY has come under some modest pressure throughout the morning in what is more of a consolidation than any sustained bout of pressure, index to the lower-end of 103.52-103.89 session bounds.
  • Amidst this, G10 peers are firmer across the board though again magnitudes are relatively slim with specific newsflow in-line with expectations and relatively incrementally.
  • Though, this does come with the modest exception of GBP among G10s amid reports that the DUP could see the text of the N.Ireland Protocol deal on Monday, Cable at 1.2074 highs vs 1.2015 trough.
  • Outside of G10s, the PLN has garnered interest after the ECJ opinion ruled in-favour of mortgage holders (i.e. against domestic banks), with EUR/PLN up to 4.7775 following the announcement.
  • Elsewhere, peers are little changed/modestly firmer ex-USD, with the EUR and CAD await numerous Central Bank speakers.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8519 vs exp. 6.8524 (prev. 6.8183)

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are softer/flat on the session and towards the lower-end of circa USD 1.50/bbl parameters with fresh developments somewhat limited for the complex.
  • Gas markets diverge with US Henry Hub futures are firmer above USD 2.50/MMBtu whilst Dutch TTF sees losses but remains above EUR 50/MWh.
  • Spot gold is essentially unchanged as participants await fresh catalysts while base metals are mixed overall and relatively rangebound themselves.

Fixed Income

  • Gilts and Bunds have run out of recovery momentum and are now essentially unchanged as Bunds failed to breach the 135.12 Fib of Wednesday’s action with specific developments limited.
  • In the periphery, a hefty amount of supply from France, Spain and Italian 2053 syndication have been digested with limited impact thus far, though BTPs are a handful of ticks lower than their core peers.
  • Stateside, USTs are in the green though they are currently beneath their overnight peak in 112.11+ to 111.29+ parameters ahead of numerous data points and Fed speakers.

Geopolitics

  • Russian embassy to the US said the destruction of Nord Stream pipelines was an act of international terrorism and the US should prove it was not involved, according to Reuters.
  • US Senate passed a resolution condemning China over the spy balloon, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that US officials said the downed Chinese spy balloon was aimed at US bases in Guam and Hawaii but was blown off course, according to NYT.
  • Turkish Foreign Minister says will discuss bilateral relations, Ukraine war, Swedish and Finnish NATO with US Secretary of State Blinken next week; Turkey could evaluate Finland and Sweden’s NATO applications separately.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Jan. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.5%, revised -0.4%
  • PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 5.4%, prior 6.2%
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.9%, prior 5.5%
  • 08:30: Feb. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200,000, prior 196,000
  • Continuing Claims, est. 1.7m, prior 1.69m
  • 08:30: Jan. Housing Starts, est. 1.36m, prior 1.38m
    • Housing Starts MoM, est. -1.9%, prior -1.4%
    • Building Permits, est. 1.35m, prior 1.33m, revised 1.34m
    • Building Permits MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -1.6%, revised -1.0%
  • 08:30: Feb. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. -7.5, prior -8.9
  • 08:30: Feb. New York Fed Services Business, est. -17.0, prior -21.4

Central bank speakers

  • 08:45: Fed’s Mester Speaks at Global Interdependence Center Event
  • 13:30: Fed’s Bullard Discusses the Economy and Monetary Policy
  • 16:00: Fed’s Cook Gives Welcoming Remarks at Sadie Collective
  • 18:15: Fed’s Mester Discusses the Economic Outlook

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

So is good news, good news or bad news? Is bad news, bad news or good news? Are rising rates and yields a sign of normality or looming trouble again? Is US inflation hitting a glitch in its disinflationary journey? Is a soft, hard or no landing more likely now after what we’ve seen so far this year? Also are the seasonals causing havoc with the data? December’s US data was particularly weak and January’s particular strong.

These are the trillion dollar questions at the moment. At face value there is indeed growing evidence about the strength of the US economy, with the latest round of data releases still showing a very robust picture at the start of the year. This has helped to cement the market narrative of the last couple of weeks, which has seen investors reassess how high the Fed will need to raise rates in order to get a grip on inflation. Indeed only yesterday, 10yr Treasury yields rose a further +5.5bps, taking them up to their highest closing level of 2023 so far at 3.8%.

In terms of those different releases, first we had US retail sales for January, which posted its fastest monthly growth in nearly two years at +3.0% (vs. +2.0% expected). The components of the release also showed it to be a very broad-based gain, with not one of the major categories seeing a decline over the month either. Second, we had the New York Fed’s latest Empire State manufacturing survey, which surprised to the upside at -5.8 in February (vs. -18.0 expected). And interestingly, both the “prices paid” and “prices received” components rose on the month, so again a sign that inflationary pressures remain strong. Finally, we had the NAHB’s housing market index for February, which rebounded to 42 (vs. 37 expected), which marked the biggest monthly increase since July 2020. That’s coincided with a decline in mortgage rates since their peak in late-October/early November, and suggests that the Fed could need to tighten financial conditions even more if they want to get inflation under control.

When it comes to financial conditions, what’s striking is how accommodative they’ve remained over the last couple of weeks, even as estimates of the Fed’s terminal rate have risen to new highs. For instance, yesterday saw Bloomberg’s index of US financial conditions close at the loosest level in a year. In addition, they remain easier now than when the Fed began its hiking cycle in March, despite 450bps worth of hikes in that time. So for now at least, the economy has remained incredibly resilient in the face of the most rapid tightening cycle in a generation. A reminder here of DB’s Matt Luzzetti’s new 5.6% terminal call from Tuesday night which is probably the most aggressive on the Street as we have been for most of the last year.

For markets, the strong data led to a fresh push higher among longer-dated yields, with investors increasingly pondering whether rates will need to remain higher for longer given the recent releases. That meant that 10yr US Treasury yields ended the session up +5.5bps, although it was higher inflation breakevens that drove the move, with an increase of +4.5bps to 2.36%. Over at the front-end, the moves in inflation breakevens over recent weeks have been even more pronounced, which just shows how investors’ confidence has been dented in the hope that we’ll get a smooth inflation decline. In fact, the 2yr breakeven rose to 2.88% yesterday, which is up more than +80bps in less than a month, having closed at 2.04% on January 18.

This pattern was echoed in Europe too, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.8bps), OATs (+4.4bps) and BTPs (+10.9bps) all rising on the day. The main exception to this pattern of sovereign bond losses came from UK gilts, with the 10yr yield down -3.4bps. That followed the latest CPI data for January, which showed inflation falling more than expected to +10.1% (vs. +10.3% expected). Core inflation also surprised on the downside at +5.8% (vs. +6.2% expected), raising the prospect that the BoE wouldn’t need to be as aggressive with rate hikes as some had thought.

Equities posted a decent performance on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday as the optimistic narrative prevailed. It was a tougher climb in the US right after the retail sales data, but the S&P 500 (+0.28%) was nevertheless propelled into the green in the last hour of trading after dropping c.-0.70% earlier in the session, with two-thirds of the members up for the day. Positive growth data lifted consumer discretionary (+1.16%) and industrials (+0.63%) sectors that raced ahead of the more defensive staples (+0.19%) and healthcare (-0.51%) stocks. Big tech left its mark too, as communications was the S&P 500’s top performing sector (+1.17%) and the NYSE FANG+ index rose by +0.56%. Such a backdrop naturally favoured the Nasdaq 100 (+0.77%), especially vis-à-vis the Dow Jones (+0.11%) index, but with strong growth data being the key narrative, the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.09%) was the relative outperformer for the day. On the flip side, energy (-1.78%) suffered the most amid another leg down in oil prices (WTI -0.71%), in part due to inventory headlines, and disappointing results from Devon Energy (-10.49%), which made the stock the worst performer in the index for the day.

Over in Europe, the relative outperformance of 2023 continued, with the broader STOXX 600 (+0.42%) hitting its highest level in just under a year. The broad-based rally, with roughly 75% of members in the green for the day, was underpinned by strong performance in economy-sensitive industrials (+1.52%) and consumer discretionary (+1.41%). Laggards were clustered in energy (-0.28%) and real estate (-0.80%).

Asian equity markets are making strong gains this morning. As I type, the Hang Seng (+2.31%) is leading gains in the region ending a four-day run of declines. This is followed by the KOSPI (+1.78%), the CSI (+0.97%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.77%) and the Nikkei (+0.67%). In overnight trading, US equity futures are printing fresh gains with those on the S&P 500 (+0.16%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.38%) moving higher. Meanwhile, yields on the 10yr USTs (-2.31 bps) have pulled back overnight, trading at 3.78% as we go to press.

In early morning data, Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from +3.5% to +3.7% in January, its highest level since the RBA started lifting interest rates from record lows. In January, the economy shed 11,500 jobs, lifting the number of unemployed by 21,900 people, indicating that the nation’s labour market might be starting to weaken after the central bank began hiking interest rates nine months ago.

Turning to the political sphere, in the UK we saw the surprise resignation of Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon yesterday. Sturgeon has led the devolved government there since late-2014, shortly after the independence referendum that resulted in a 55-45% vote for Scotland to remain part of the UK. Her plan had been to make the next UK general election a de facto independence referendum, but has now said it will be up to the rest of the SNP to decide how best to win independence. That follows a Supreme Court ruling in November that said the devolved administration in Scotland wasn’t able to unilaterally call a referendum, and would require the consent of the UK government.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, US industrial production was unchanged in January (vs. +0.5% expected), and capacity utilisation unexpectedly fell to 78.3% (vs. 79.1% expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include January’s PPI, housing starts and building permits, the weekly initial jobless claims, the February’s Philadelphia Fed business outlook. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta, Nagel, Lane and Makhlouf, the Fed’s Mester, Bullard and Cook, BoE chief economist Pill and BoC Governor Macklem.

end

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Marginally firmer sentiment with action rangebound amid limited catalysts thus far – Newsquawk US Market Open

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THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 06:39 AM

  • European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, in a continuation of APAC trade with fresh developments somewhat limited ex-earnings.
  • Stateside, futures are little changed overall ahead of data/Fed speak.
  • DXY has come under some modest pressure throughout the morning in what is more of a consolidation than any sustained bout of pressure, with peers modestly firmer.
  • GBP leads amid further reports of an impending N. Ireland Protocol deal while PLN lags after the ECJ’s ruling.
  • EGBs ran out of recovery momentum and are now flat, USTs modestly firmer with yields lower.
  • Commodities rangebound amid limited specific fundamentals news aside from geopolitical developments re. Nord Stream and China.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Philly Fed, PPI, IJC, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, Cook & Mester, ECB’s Lane & de Guindos, BoE’s Pill, Earnings from Paramount & Dropbox.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, in a continuation of APAC trade with fresh developments somewhat limited ex-earnings.
  • Sectors are mostly in the green with Media outperforming post-RELX, Telecoms bolstered by Orange & Vodafone, Banking by Commerzbank and Standard Chartered; for reference, heavyweight Nestle is lower as its headline metrics missed slightly.
  • Stateside, futures are little changed overall after ending Wednesday’s session firmer after initial data-induced weakness, ES U/C, ahead of numerous Central Bank speakers.
  • Sony (6758 JT) Chip unit head sees limited impact from chip export curbs to China by US, Japan, and the Netherlands, expects global smartphone demand to recover in H2 this year, inventory levels a concern.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY has come under some modest pressure throughout the morning in what is more of a consolidation than any sustained bout of pressure, index to the lower-end of 103.52-103.89 session bounds.
  • Amidst this, G10 peers are firmer across the board though again magnitudes are relatively slim with specific newsflow in-line with expectations and relatively incrementally.
  • Though, this does come with the modest exception of GBP among G10s amid reports that the DUP could see the text of the N.Ireland Protocol deal on Monday, Cable at 1.2074 highs vs 1.2015 trough.
  • Outside of G10s, the PLN has garnered interest after the ECJ opinion ruled in-favour of mortgage holders (i.e. against domestic banks), with EUR/PLN up to 4.7775 following the announcement.
  • Elsewhere, peers are little changed/modestly firmer ex-USD, with the EUR and CAD await numerous Central Bank speakers.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8519 vs exp. 6.8524 (prev. 6.8183)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Gilts and Bunds have run out of recovery momentum and are now essentially unchanged as Bunds failed to breach the 135.12 Fib of Wednesday’s action with specific developments limited.
  • In the periphery, a hefty amount of supply from France, Spain and Italian 2053 syndication have been digested with limited impact thus far, though BTPs are a handful of ticks lower than their core peers.
  • Stateside, USTs are in the green though they are currently beneath their overnight peak in 112.11+ to 111.29+ parameters ahead of numerous data points and Fed speakers.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks are softer/flat on the session and towards the lower-end of circa USD 1.50/bbl parameters with fresh developments somewhat limited for the complex.
  • Gas markets diverge with US Henry Hub futures are firmer above USD 2.50/MMBtu whilst Dutch TTF sees losses but remains above EUR 50/MWh.
  • Spot gold is essentially unchanged as participants await fresh catalysts while base metals are mixed overall and relatively rangebound themselves.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • ECB’s Panetta says the ECB should not unconditionally pre-commit to future policy moves, the extent and duration of monetary policy restriction matters now that rates are in restrictive territory. Headline inflation could fall below 3% towards the end of the year. Core inflation cannot turn on a dime and will eventually follow headline inflation. Wages are an upside risk and accelerating wage growth raises the spectre of a wage-price spiral.
  • EU Top Court Advocate General in the Polish FX Mortgage case says Banks may not demand remuneration for use of capital in contracts rendered invalid; the possibility of demanding remuneration from banks by consumers should be based on Polish law and decision is up to Polish courts.
  • UK PM Sunak and EU’s von der Leyen are to speak before the end of the week with the text of the Northern Ireland protocol deal to go before the DUP on Monday, according to The Times; the text will be presented to the DUP on Monday before the cabinet gets to view it on Tuesday. Government sources are confident the deal with satisfy unionist tests for backing a deal.

DATA RECAP

  • UK ONS says spending indicators mostly recorded reduced activity when compared with the prior week; net 8% of businesses currently trading expect turnover to increase in March vs. 3% decrease in Feb.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • China’s Commerce Ministry is to include Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon (RTX) on their unreliable entities list from today, banning the Cos from engaging in China-related trade activities; bans senior staff from entering China.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning note.

GEOPOLITICS

  • Russian embassy to the US said the destruction of Nord Stream pipelines was an act of international terrorism and the US should prove it was not involved, according to Reuters.
  • US Senate passed a resolution condemning China over the spy balloon, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that US officials said the downed Chinese spy balloon was aimed at US bases in Guam and Hawaii but was blown off course, according to NYT.
  • Turkish Foreign Minister says will discuss bilateral relations, Ukraine war, Swedish and Finnish NATO with US Secretary of State Blinken next week; Turkey could evaluate Finland and Sweden’s NATO applications separately.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is firmer on the session and at the top-end of parameters, though is yet to convincingly test the USD 25k mark to the upside.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks gained as the region took impetus from the US where participants digested a slew of data releases including stronger-than-expected retail sales and better-than-feared NY Fed Manufacturing.
  • ASX 200 was firmer after several key earnings releases although gains were capped by disappointing jobs data which showed a surprise contraction in Employment Change and a higher Unemployment Rate.
  • Nikkei 225 was led by strength in auto manufacturers including Toyota which plans to boost output next month, while data releases were varied as machinery orders disappointed but trade data was mixed.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the improved risk tone with tech front running the outperformance in Hong Kong and with the mainland also underpinned by China’s support pledges.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • Chinese President Xi said China is willing to share ultra-large-scale markets, complete industrial systems and advanced technologies with central Asian countries, while he added they will promote high-quality regional economic development and build a closer China-central Asia community with a shared future, according to state media.
  • China’s NDRC said shortcomings and difficulties still exist in employment, education, medical care, childcare, elderly care, housing and ecological protection. NDRC added that it will boost the income of urban and rural residents, as well as improve the consumption capacity of low and middle-income residents. Furthermore, it will support improvement in spending on housing, NEVs and elderly care services, among other areas of consumption, according to Reuters.
  • China’s Industry Minister said China’s industrial and information development is facing a more severe and complex external environment as the US escalates suppression of China’s advanced manufacturing industry, according to Reuters.
  • China’s Politburo Standing Committee says the current COVID prevention situation in China is good overall, declares victory in COVID control.
  • Japan’s Banking Lobby Chief expects the BoJ to steer an exit from massive monetary easing at some point in the future, if it can forsee sustained and stable CPI and wage growth. Policy adj. could increase volatility in capital/financial markets.
  • BoJ market operations for three on-the-run issues of 10yr JGBs. Click here for more.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese House Prices YY (Jan) -1.5% (Prev. -1.5%)
  • Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Jan) -3.50T vs. Exp. -3.87T (Prev. -1.45T)
  • Japanese Exports YY (Jan) 3.5% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 11.5%); Imports YY (Jan) 17.8% vs. Exp. 18.4% (Prev. 20.6%, Rev. 20.7%)
  • Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Dec) 1.6% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. -8.3%); YY (Dec) -6.6% vs. Exp. -6.0% (Prev. -3.7%)
  • Australian Employment (Jan) -11.5k vs. Exp. 20.0k (Prev. -14.6k); Full-Time Employment (Jan) -43.3k (Prev. 17.6k)
  • Australian Unemployment Rate (Jan) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%)
  • Australian Participation Rate (Jan) 66.5% vs. Exp. 66.6% (Prev. 66.6%)

1.c THURSDAY/  WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.46 PTS OR 0.96%    //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 175.50 PTS OR 0.84%      /The Nikkei closed UP 194.58 PTS OR 0.71%            //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .82%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.85555 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.86666//    /Oil UP TO 78.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.64   / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

2B JAPAN

JAPAN/

end

3c CHINA /

CHINA

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//

GERMANY/

Airport websites paralyzed by a likely hack

(zerohedge)

Airport Websites In Germany Paralyzed By Likely “DDoS Attack”

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 07:20 AM

The websites of six German airports were knocked offline on Thursday, one day after broadband cables were severed by construction crews in Frankfurt that forced airline carrier Lufthansa to ground all flights.  

German media outlet Spiegel Online reported websites of the airports in Düsseldorf, Hanover, Dortmund, Erfurt, Nuremberg, and Baden-Baden were “temporarily unavailable.” Out of the list, Düsseldorf is the fourth largest airport in the country. The largest airport, Frankfurt, was unaffected by the outage. 

“The failure was probably based on a so-called DDoS attack,” Spiegel Online said, adding, “A Russian hacktivist group claimed responsibility for the attack online.” 

So far, flight operations at the affected airports weren’t disrupted. Computers that were affected include ones that display information about arrivals and departures. 

The outage comes one day after construction workers in Frankfurt severed Deutsche Telekom AG’s broadband cables, forcing Lufthansa to ground flights on Wednesday. 

And on Friday, a planned strike by labor union Verdi will create chaos at seven airports, including Frankfurt and Munich. This is another headache for travelers in Germany and Europe. 

END

EUROPE(GERMANY)/USA/RUSSIA/NORDSTREAM

Pepe Escobar on the NordStream bombing.  I brought this story to you yesterday but it is worth repeating

(Pepe Escobar)

Escobar: Nord Stream Terror Attack – The Plot Thickens

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

What’s left for all of us is to swim in a swamp crammed with derelict patsies, dodgy cover stories and intel debris.

Seymour Hersh’s bombshell report on how the United States government blew up the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea last September continues to generate rippling geopolitical waves all across the spectrum.

Except, of course, in the parallel bubble of U.S. mainstream media, which has totally ignored it, or in a few select cases, decided to shoot the messenger, dismissing Hersh as a “discredited” journalist, a “blogger”, and a “conspiracy theorist”.

I have offered an initial approach, focused on the plentiful merits of a seemingly thorough report, but also noting some serious inconsistencies.

Old school Moscow-based foreign correspondent John Helmer has gone even further; and what he uncovered may be as incandescent as Sy Hersh’s own narrative.

The heart of the matter in Hersh’s report concerns attribution of responsibility for a de facto industrial terror attack. Surprisingly, no CIA; that falls straight on the toxic planning trio of Sullivan, Blinken and Nuland – neoliberal-cons part of the “Biden” combo. And the final green light comes from the Ultimate Decider: the senile, teleprompt-reading President himself. The Norwegians feature as minor helpers.

That poses the first serious problem: nowhere in his narrative Hersh refers to MI6, the Poles (government, Navy), the Danes, and even the German government.

There’s a mention that on January 2022, “after some wobbling”, Chancellor Scholz “was now firmly on the American team”. Well, by now the plan had been under discussion, according to Hersh’s source, for at least a few months. That also means that Scholz remained “on the American team” all the way to the terror attack, on September 2022.

As for the Brits, the Poles and all NATO games being played off Bornhom Island more than a year before the attack, that had been extensively reported by Russian media – from Kommersant to RIA Novosti.

The Special Military Operation (SMO) was launched on February 24, almost a year ago. The Nord Stream 1 and 2 blow up happened on September 26. Hersh assures there were “more than nine months of highly secret back and forth debate inside Washington’s national security community about how to ‘sabotage the pipelines’”.

So that confirms that the terror attack planning preceded, by months, not only the SMO but, crucially, the letters sent by Moscow to Washington on December 2022, requesting a serious discussion on “indivisibility of security” involving NATO, Russia and the post-Soviet space. The request was met by a dismissive American non-response response.

While he was writing the story of a terror response to a serious geopolitical issue, it does raise eyebrows that a first-rate pro like Hersh does not even bother to examine the complex geopolitical background.

In a nutshell: the ultimate Mackinderian anathema for the U.S. ruling classes – and that’s bipartisan – is a Germany-Russia alliance, extended to China: that would mean the U.S. expelled from Eurasia, and that conditions everything any American government thinks and does in terms of NATO and Russia.

Hersh should also have noticed that the timing of the preparation to “sabotage the pipelines” completely blows apart the official United States government narrative, according to which this a collective West effort to help Ukraine against “unprovoked Russian aggression”.

That elusive source

The narrative leaves no doubt that Hersh’s source – if not the journalist himself – supports what is considered a lawful U.S. policy: to fight Russia’s “threat to Western dominance [in Europe].”

So what seems a U.S. Navy covert op, according to the narrative, may have been misguided not because of serious geopolitical reasons; but because the attack planning intentionally evaded U.S. law “requiring Congress to be informed”. That’s an extremely parochial interpretation of international relations. Or, to be blunt: that’s an apology of Exceptionalism.

And that brings us to what may be the Rosebud in this Orson Welles-worthy saga. Hersh refers to a “secure room on the top floor of the Old Executive Office Building …that was also the home of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board”.

This was supposedly the place where the terror attack planning was being discussed.

So welcome to PIAB: the President Intelligence Advisory Board. All members are appointed by the current POTUS, in this case Joe Biden. If we examine the list of current members of PIAB, we should, in theory, find Hersh’s source (see, for instance, “President Biden Announces Appointments to the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board and the National Science Board”; “President Biden Announces Key Appointments”; “President Biden Announces Key Appointments to Boards and Commissions”; “President Biden Announces Key Appointments to Boards and Commissions”; and “President Biden Announces Key Appointments to Boards and Commissions”.

Here are the members of PIAB appointed by Biden: Sandy Winnefeld; Gilman Louie; Janet Napolitano; Richard Verma; Evan Bayh; Anne Finucane; Mark Angelson; Margaret Hamburg; Kim Cobb; and Kneeland Youngblood.

Hersh’s source, according to his narrative, asserts, without a shadow of a doubt, that “Russian troops had been steadily and ominously building up on the borders of Ukraine” and that “alarm was growing in Washington”. It’s beggars belief that this supposedly well informed lot didn’t know about the massing of NATO-led Ukrainian troops across the line of contact, getting ready to launch a blitzkrieg against Donbass.

What everyone already knew by then – as the record shows even on YouTube – is that the combo behind “Biden” were dead set on terminating the Nord Streams by whatever means necessary. After the start of the SMO, the only thing missing was to find a mechanism for plausible deniability.

For all its meticulous reporting, the inescapable feeling remains that what Hersh’s narrative indicts is the Biden combo terror gambit, and never the overall U.S. plan to provoke Russia into a proxy war with NATO using Ukraine as cannon fodder.

Moreover, Hersh’s source may be eminently flawed. He – or she – said, according to Hersh, that Russia “failed to respond” to the pipeline terror attack because “maybe they want the capability to do the same things the U.S. did”.

In itself, this may prove that the source was not even a member of PIAB, and did not receive the classified PIAB report assessing Putin’s crucial speech of September 30, which identifies the “responsible” party. If that’s the case, the source is just connected (italics mine) to some PIAB member; was not invited to the months-long situation-room planning; and certainly is not aware of the finer details of this administration’s war in Ukraine.

Considering Sy Hersh’s stellar track record in investigative journalism, it would be quite refreshing for him to elucidate these inconsistencies. That would get rid of the fog of rumors depicting the report as a mere limited hangout.

Considering there are several “silos” of intel within the U.S. oligarchy, with their corresponding apparatuses, and Hersh has cultivated his contacts among nearly all of them for decades, there’s no question the allegedly privileged information on the Nord Stream saga came from a very precise address – with a very precise agenda.

So we should see who the story really indicts: certainly the Straussian neo-con/neoliberal-con combo behind “Biden”, and the wobbly President himself. As I pointed out in my initial analysis, the CIA gets away with flying colors.

And we should not forget that the Big Narrative is changing fast: the RAND report, the looming NATO humiliation in Ukraine, Balloon Hysteria, UFO psy op. The real “threat” is – who else – China. What’s left for all of us is to swim in a swamp crammed with derelict patsies, dodgy cover stories and intel debris. Knowing that those who really run the show never show their hand.

END

EUROPE/NATO/RUSSIA/CRIMEA/USA

My goodness:  the uSA has turned polar opposite to the goal to taking Crimea. It would cross Russia’s red line

The problem is that they have crossed so many of Russia’s red lines

(zerohedge)

Blinken Warns Ukraine Against Seizing Crimea In About-Face

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 11:10 AM

In a bit of an about-face for Washington based on past officials’ more aggressive posture, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken now says the administration is not actively encouraging Ukraine to seize Crimea. 

Politico reports of his words that “A Ukrainian attempt to retake Crimea would be a red line for Vladimir Putin that could lead to a wider Russian response, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a Zoom call with a group of experts Wednesday.”

Specifically the top US diplomat said America is not “actively encouraging” Ukraine to liberate Crimea from Russia, the Wednesday report said.image.png

Instead, any potential future Crimea offensive will be “Kyiv’s decision alone” – this despite a recent past history of rhetoric out of both Republican and Democratic administrations which have continually asserted over the years that “Crimea is Ukraine.”

The response was prompted by a reporter’s question on whether or not the US would assist Ukraine in retaking all territory previously seized by pro-Kremlin forces. Politico details more of Blinken’s response as follows:  

Blinken, according to two of the people, gave the impression that the U.S. doesn’t consider a push to retake Crimea to be a wise move at this time. He didn’t say those words explicitly, they underscored.

Two other people didn’t take Blinken’s comments that way. The secretary remarked that it is solely the Ukrainians’ decision as to what they try to take by force, not America’s. That signaled to them that Blinken was more open to a potential Ukrainian play for Crimea.

All of this comes as Western media and officials reluctantly acknowledged that Russian forces have the upper hand in Donetsk and are poised to take the strategic city of Bakhmut, having it surrounded.

Meanwhile, NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg this week issued a rare admission concerning the history of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

Stoltenberg admitted that the war in Donbass has been going on since 2014 – which appears to validate a key aspect of Russia’s framing of the conflict narrative and why Putin ordered the invasion

Europe

Idiots: EU signals a 90% cut in CO2 emissions by 2045

(zerohedge)

EU Eyes 90% CO2 Cut By 2040 For Trucks

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 03:30 AM

By Julieanne Geiger of Oilprice.com

The European Commission proposed tighter CO2 rules for heavy-duty vehicles this week, mandating that all new trucks reduce emissions by 90% by 2040 and all new city buses emit zero emissions starting in just 7 years, by 2030, according to a statement from the European Commission.

The EU’s objective is not only to help the EU get closer to its zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but to reduce its imported fossil fuels as well. There is already an agreement for new cars to be CO2-free by 2035, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

“The road transport sector represents one fifth of the EU’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is the main cause of air pollution in cities,” the Commission said, adding that the transport sector is the only sector in the EU where emissions have continued to rise in recent years. Heavy-duty trucks and buses are responsible for more than 25% of GHG emissions from road transport in the EU and 6% of total EU GHG emissions.

The Commission suggested that manufacturers must have to cut the typical CO2 emissions of the new trucks they sell by 90% from 2019 levels by 2040.

They would also have to reduce CO2 by 65% starting in 2035.

The EU opted for a 90% target instead of a 100% target for now because, according to EU climate policy chief Frans Timmermans, zero-emissions technologies isn’t yet available for all trucks, and they don’t know when it will be.

The ultimate goal is still a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions for cars and trucks, but the EU did not comment on when the target might be shifted. 

Environmentalists who were hoping for more are unhappy that the bloc decided to forgo the last 10 percent. “Polluting trucks will continue to be sold for years longer than necessary, making the EU’s net zero goal impossible,” a freight manager at the Transport & Environment campaign group said, cited by Reuters, in response to the EU’s Tuesday announcement.

END

EUROPE

5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

end

UKRAINE/RUSSIA//NATO

Extremely important//major speech by Putin on Feb 21..What will he say?  What new offensive?

(Pepe Escobar/Robert H)

Pepe Escobar on Twitter: “CLASSIFIED. Document will be signed off by NATO defense ministers in Brussels today. NATO will be at war on TWO FRONTS. A “high-intensity so-called Article 5 conflict”. And “an out-of-area, non-Article 5 event.” Russia AND China. Good luck with that.” / Twitter

Robert Hryniak4:24 PM (1 hour ago)
to

Only a drunk or a fool would want to take a punch that floors you!

On February 21 Putin will make a hour long speech that will be carried by all radio and TV stations across Russia. Contrary to narrative, Russia’s only allies and friends are its’ army and navy. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are already boasting that something will take place on the 23rd and 24th that Russia will not like that will affect the whole world. It is safe to say that Russia already knows it is at war.

Meanwhile it is being said the reason Starlink is not working over the Ukraine is that it has been taken down by the Russians. And this is something that is not going to be escalated by Musk.

There are several reasons the Northern Fleet armed all vessels with the latest nuclear missiles and put to sea. Have no illusions we are watching a march to a nuclear exchange led by fools and engineered by shadow enablers. There is no good practical reason for this. The Biden crime family profits directly in payoffs from Burisma ( Ukrainian gas transit company) … look at the money trail to Hunter.

Do you not understand that the destruction of Nord Stream will directly profit this as the only viable existing route for gas transit to Europe? The Poles closed off the pipe that runs through Poland to Germany. When you watch the march to war, propaganda wins over truth.

Ask yourself why the Chinese balloon was allowed to float leisurely across America? Who allowed it for what purpose? Do we not realize they transmitted signal’s data as the balloon moved under Chinese direction? Do you not think that the Chinese had a field day with the $80 billion of Western surveillance equipment left in Afghanistan? What did they learn? Why was it not destroyed before America left Afghanistan?

Do you not think someone wanted ISIS to pick up all those shiny new Toyota trucks left in Iraq to reign terror in Syria? Think about who benefits and pokes such holes in America? Do you not know China got its’ computer technology for missiles from America? Who makes the best enemy to fight and why? There was a time when this was called treason.

In a very cavalier manner, there is talk of use of tactical field nukes in Ukraine against Russians. Do you not know Russia last year was warned by the nuclear inspectors of an attempt to create a false flag nuclear disaster by dumb Ukrainians? This was a disaster avoided by Russian action. Otherwise, there would have been a 100 million people running in Europe for their lives.

Who wants and benefits from a world at war? Will scarcity cause people to fight for life? As Congress looks at the consequence’s of elections and money flows, who creates cover and illusions?

Do you think China is void of local resistance? There is far more turmoil there than you can imagine. Think about the empty cities and the cost of carrying such a burden. Not all is well with the Dragon.

It seems war by other means is already well under way. And how it all goes to a kinetic war will soon be obvious. However the general population is not on board nor is the supply chain any where near close to being able to support a western led war. And we can be sure that all of people in China do not want war.

Where it all goes remains murky and is yet to be decided.

end

Lavrov issues dire warning that war with USA is close.  Lavrov is very even handed so when he states this, we must be cognizant as to the consequences.

(zerohedge)

Russian Diplomats Issue Dire Warnings That War With US Is Close

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 10:11 AM

Authored by Kyle Anzalone & Will Porter,

The Kremlin’s top diplomat has warned that Western involvement in Ukraine is nearing “the point of no return,” accusing the United States and the NATO bloc of attempting to transform the country into a “Russophobic military stronghold.” Meanwhile, Moscow’s UN envoy declared that all of Russia’s “red lines” have already been crossed. 

Addressing lawmakers at Russia’s State Duma on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov outlined the causes of the current conflict in Ukraine and the deterioration of US-Russia relations, saying Washington has a “maniacal desire to revive the neo-colonial unipolar world order.”

“An integral part of this policy is the long-term containment of Russia, including through the expansion of NATO towards our borders, as well as the transformation of fraternal Ukraine into a Russophobic military stronghold,” he said. “In recent years, this line of Washington and its European satellites has reached the point of no return.”

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Washington and several other Western states gave assurances to Moscow that the NATO alliance would not expand beyond Germany. However, in the years since, Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump have each allowed new members to join the alliance, all of them inching closer to Russia’s borders.

Starting in 2008, NATO has repeatedly declared its intention to someday allow Ukraine to become a member, again reiterating that pledge at a recent alliance summit. The move would cross the “brightest of all red lines” for Moscow, as was previously noted by then-State Department official and current CIA Director William Burns, who penned a 2008 memo warning of the geopolitical perils of extending membership to Kiev.

Still, President Joe Biden has refused to change course, insisting it is up to Ukraine whether it would like to join the US-led military bloc while effectively making Kiev a de facto member in the meantime. In an interview with Newsweek on Tuesday, Russia’s UN envoy Dmitry Polyanskiy argued that the West has not respected Moscow’s core security concerns, and has become directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine.

“All the red lines have already been crossed by Western countries. There is already semi-direct involvement of NATO in the conflict because it’s not only weaponry but it’s intelligence,” he said. “It’s the situation when the targets of certain artillery systems, in particular HIMARS, these targets can be hit only with the coordination with Washington.”

Last week, the Washington Post reported that Ukraine relies on American intelligence for selecting targets. Since the start of the year, the White House has authorized the shipment of main battle tanks and long-range rockets to Kiev. Additionally, NATO appears to be preparing to send Western-made warplanes to Ukraine. 

“It means that NATO is not only providing weapons but also are choosing the targets for Ukrainian strikes,” Polyanskiy continued. 

He went on to allege that citizens from NATO countries are already fighting – as well as getting captured and killed – in Ukraine. “We know this from the people that we capture and from the bodies that we see on the battlefield.” The ambassador said Western weapons would only escalate the conflict, even warning that foreign intervention could eventually trigger a nuclear war. 

“It’s absolutely clear that any deliveries of weapons to the zone of conflict, of course, is like pouring oil into the fire,” he said, adding “If you are dealing with a nuclear power and if you are citing the goal of inflicting defeat to this nuclear power, you should have all the options in mind of our possible response.”

In their remarks, both diplomats also pointed to potential American involvement in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines. Last week, investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published a bombshell report claiming that Washington planned to bomb the pipelines. The White House has denied that it had any part sabotaging the line, though Senator Mike Lee later acknowledged that it was possible. 

On Wednesday, Polyanskiy said that Moscow requested a UN meeting next week to address Hersh’s reporting. Lavrov rejected denials from the Biden administration, saying the West is “lying, hiding the truth about the terrorist attacks on the Nord Stream and Nord Stream-2 gas pipelines, just as they lied about the Minsk agreements.”

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel claimed the Minsk agreement, which ostensibly was meant to end the civil war in Ukraine, was really intended to give Kiev time to build up its military. In a December 1 interview with Der Spiegel, Merkel said that she believes that during the Minsk talks, she was able to buy the time Ukraine needed to better fend off a Russian attack.

END

A must read…

Mike Whitney

A US-led ‘Coalition of the Willing’ foreshadows the Splintering of NATO, by Mike Whitney – The Unz Review

Robert Hryniak4:12 PM (10 minutes ago)
to

The ship of fools led by a senile questionable actor is lost beyond belief as to having a direction or strategy to maintain hegemony.
This is not what Americans are about a a stain on the memories of so many Americans who have done good in the world. And it will not be lost on nations what has befallen America with this crowd.

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/a-us-led-coalition-of-the-willing-foreshadows-the-splintering-of-nato/

Two foolish men

You must see this for yourself!!

RUSSIA/USA/NATO

(Larry Johnson)

Public Display of the Gross Incompetence of U.S. and NATO Military Leaders

By Larry Johnson
Published February 15, 2023 at 7:00am
656 Comments

If you are still wondering why the United States failed to prevail in Iraq and Afghanistan, especially Afghanistan, all you need to do is watch Tuesday’s press conference of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels, Belgium. What a veritable clown show! The remarks by Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milley revealed two guys with an iron grip on delusion and a total lack of self-awareness.

The audacity of these two failed military leaders to pretend they are qualified to offer advice to Ukraine on how to fight a first-world military when their own dismal military records show they failed to defeat a bunch of goat herders and tribesmen that had no combat air, no helicopters and no artillery is the definition of chutzpah. It would be funny were it not for the slaughter underway in Ukraine.

Public Display of the Gross Incompetence of U.S. and NATO Military Leaders

Here are some of the lowlights from Austin’s opening remarks:

He accuses Russia of deliberating targeting civilians (a lie) and ignores the last eight years of Ukraine killing its own civilians in the Donbas.

He accuses Putin of causing world chaos, even though the shortages of food and oil along with collapsing economies in Europe were self-inflicted wounds by NATO. NATO did that, not Putin.

Austin pledges to support Ukraine for the long haul by PROMISING more HIMARS ammo, heavy machine guns, 181 MRAPs and 2000 Anti-Tank Guided Missiles plus an additional $1.75 billion for air defense systems. He failed to mention that none of that materiel will be arriving any time soon because U.S. and European stockpiles are almost depleted.

Along with providing more Cow Bell, Austin insists that the Contact Group will be synchronizing donations into an integrated training plan. Oh yeah, almost forgot, Ukraine will be getting more tanks and air defense systems (which will not arrive for months). He skipped over the tiny, insignificant detail of the lack of logistics support for these systems and the months of training required for Ukrainian troops to be minimally proficient with those systems.

Good speech, Lloyd.

Next up, General Milley. At least he did not mis-pronoun anyone:

NATO and this Coalition has never been stronger and Russia is now a global pariah.

I am surprised no one laughed at this blatantly ridiculous claim. Poland is carping at Germany. Turkey told Sweden no deal on entering NATO. Hungary is expressing grave reservations. Meanwhile, Putin has forged closer ties with China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Brazil. Time for the Princess Bride:

Public Display of the Gross Incompetence of U.S. and NATO Military Leaders

Milley…..

Russia has lost, they’ve lost strategically operationally and tactically and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield.

Hey Mark. Losing is when you abandon Afghanistan with desperate souls hanging on to the wheels and wings of departing U.S. aircraft and falling to their deaths. Losing is when the army you trained failed to hold against the Taliban. Losing is when you abandon Afghan allies who put their trust in you. Russia swept the Ukrainians from Mariupol and is in the process of doing the same thing in the Donbas. Exactly how is Russia losing strategically, operationally and tactically? Just because you say it does not make it true.

The nation of Ukraine is united for one single purpose — to expel the Russian forces from their territory and to defend themselves.

At the outset of the Special Military Operation Ukraine had a larger army in the field than Russia. That is no longer the case. Russia destroyed Ukraine’s tank brigades and now Ukraine is begging desperately for replacements. Ukraine’s Army has been decimated by the Russian tactic of using artillery to attack and destroy fixed entrenchments. Even if NATO decided to mobilize and send its own troops to reinforce Ukraine, that would not be enough to “expel” Russian forces. Russia is fighting for its homeland.

The Russian military has paid tremendous costs in their war of aggression and now they’ve resorted to sending conscripts and prisoners to imminent death.

It would appear that Milley got confused about the briefing he received on Ukrainian casualties. Russia’s so-called “conscripts” are military reservists, plus an estimated 100,000 volunteers who signed up. Ukraine, by contrast, is kidnapping 16 year old boys and 60 year old men off the streets in places like Kiev and Odessa. I find it hard to believe that Milley really believes the crap he is spewing. If he does then the United States military is in grave danger with a moron like that in charge.

Countries have pledged tanks 22 have pledged infantry Fighting Vehicle, 16 pledged artillery and Munitions and nine more pledged Air Defense Artillery. The group is focused focused on delivering the capabilities committed and efficiently providing the training the spare parts the sustainment logistics necessary for the Full Employment of these systems. Training, maintaining and sustaining Ukraine remains key for Ukraine to prevail.

It is guys like Milley that are the bread and butter of casinos around the world. He keeps doubling down and betting money he does not have in hopes of turning up a Royal Flush. A man with his experience should understand that even if the West can pony up the new weapons and vehicles and tanks, Ukraine is many months away from being able to use them effectively on the battlefield. Ukraine does not have the luxury of time.

Russia by contrast is waging a very costly war of attrition while Ukraine is effectively leveraging their asymmetric advantages in order to defend itself and the most important asymmetric Advantage they have is courage, resilience and tactical skill.

This is a real head scratch-er. Apparently Milley believes the Ukrainians have the same magical military skills of the Taliban and will be able, somehow, to defeat the Russian military just as the U.S. was vanquished from Afghanistan. Russia enjoys advantages in personnel, tanks, artillery, ammunition, electronic warfare, combat aircraft, helicopters and hyper sonic missiles. There is zero evidence that Ukraine has more courage, resilience or tactical skill than the Russians. In fact, the real asymmetry is that Russia has more trained soldiers than Ukraine by a vast margin.

It’s to uphold the rules-based international order in order that rejects the idea that big strong powerful Nations can attack other smaller countries that borders shall not change.

Hypocrisy, thy name is Milley. This is the quintessential pot calling the kettle black moment from this presser. The list of small countries that the United States and NATO have attacked is long — Afghanistan, Iraq (twice), Syria, Libya, the Balkans, Panama, Dominican Republic, Vietnam, etc. Since 1990, Russia has fought Georgia and now Ukraine. Their military operations in Syria came at the request of the recognized government. I wish that NATO would live up to the ideal of a “rules-based international order.” But the rules that Milley has in mind are house rules. It is a crooked casino.

We’re going to continue to work with Ukraine to address Ukraine’s most pressing needs again you know they’re contemplating an offensive in uh in the spring and that’s just weeks away and so we have a lot to get done so if you think about the numbers of systems that we’re bringing together: Bradley’s Strikers Marders CB 90s, 113s yeah artillery in the list goes on and on. It’s a Monumental task to bring a those systems together, get the troops trained on those platforms and make sure we have sustainment for that for for all of those systems and get those systems into the fight. So that’s that’s really the focus of our our of our conversation today.

Von Clausewitz he ain’t. What General worth a cup of warm spit announces in advance when a “contemplated” offensive will take place. How about keeping your cards close to your vest and not tipping off your opponent what you are going to do?

Looks like NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Mark Milley are not on the same page. Jens made this uncomfortable (but truthful) admission yesterday:

“It is clear that we are in a race of logistics,” he said. “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles.”

Mr. Stoltenberg said Ukrainian troops are expending ammo at “many times higher” than the current rate of production for NATO members. The situation is putting pressure on allied defense industries.

He said the waiting time for large caliber ammunition — such as shells for the 155mm howitzers sent by the U.S. — has increased from 12 to 28 months, on average.

“Orders placed today would only be delivered 2½ years later. So we need to ramp up production and invest in our production capacity,” Mr. Stoltenberg told reporters at NATO headquarters.

Ukraine, with the help of the West, is sleepwalking into the slaughterhouse. Ukraine and NATO’s refusal to wake up and grasp the reality of what is happening is likely to lead to the destruction of both.

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UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA

US Mulls Plan To Give Ukraine Thousands Of Previously Seized Iranian Weapons

WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 09:05 PM

Via The Cradle,

The US army is analyzing sending thousands of alleged Iranian weapons and over a million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine as part of Washington’s latest bid to fuel the war against Russia.

According to unnamed US and European officials that spoke with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the arsenal would include over 5,000 assault rifles, 1.6 million rounds of small arms ammunition, a small number of antitank missiles, and more than 7,000 proximity fuses that were recently seized in the Gulf of Oman allegedly on their way to Yemen.Image source: US Navy

While this cache of weapons is small compared to what western nations have sent Ukraine over the past year, Pentagon officials reportedly see in the delivery a symbolic punishment for Iran supplying Russia with drones – a claim both Tehran and Moscow deny.

“It’s a message to take weapons meant to arm Iran’s proxies and flip them to achieve our priorities in Ukraine, where Iran is providing arms to Russia,” one US official told the WSJ.

However, transferring weapons from one conflict to another remains a legal challenge for the White House, as the UN arms embargo on Iran requires western powers to destroy, store, or get rid of the seized weapons.

US President Joe Biden could presumably overcome this legal obstacle “by crafting an executive order, or working with Congress to empower the US to seize the weapons under civil forfeiture authorities and send them to Ukraine,” the WSJ claims.

“What change can this make to war? … They’ve been sending much heavier weapons,” Nasr al-Din Amir, Yemen’s Deputy Information Minister, told the US outlet about Washington’s plans. Since the start of the NATO-instigated war in Ukraine, Washington and its North Atlantic allies have been depleting their weapons stocks to give Kiev a fighting chance against Moscow’s forces.

During a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Monday, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that “the current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production.” Western leaders recently tried to convince Latin American nations to donate their weapon stocks to Ukraine in their desperate bid to counter Russia, but their suggestion was immediately shot down.

“We are not with either side. We are for peace,” said Colombian President Gustavo Petro last month. Similarly, his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Saliva told Biden during a meeting at the White House: “Brazil is a country of peace. At this moment, we need to find those who want peace, a word that has so far been used very little.”

“I don’t think sending weapons to prolong a conflict has support in Latin America,” Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard told the Financial Times. Argentina also followed a similar line when a spokesperson of the defense ministry confirmed that Buenos Aires “will not cooperate with the war.”

Russia has warned the US and its NATO allies that continuing to send weapons to Ukraine risks involving them in the conflict directly.

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RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Russia Launches Missile Strikes Across Ukraine As Two Sides Announce Prisoner Swap

Robert Hryniak3:41 PM (11 minutes ago)
to

FYI
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-war-missile-drone-strikes-/32273851.html

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6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries

This email will be deadly in a court of law

A must read….

(Tidmarsh/RealClearWire)

The Plot To Silence A Fauci Critic

WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 07:45 PM

Authored by Charlie Tidmarsh via RealClear Wire,

On Jan. 19, joint reporting from The Intercept and The Nation made public a collection of newly unredacted emails between Anthony Fauci, recently retired National Institutes of Health director Francis Collins, and a select few virologists, in which the group discusses the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab – specifically, the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China.

The hook in the reporting by investigative journalist Jimmy Tobias, beyond its illuminating document cache, is his observation that three of those virologists went on to publish a March 21, 2020, paper in Nature Medicine entitled “The proximal origins of SARS-CoV-2,” in which the authors asserted “We do not believe that any laboratory-based scenario is plausible.” The emails unearthed by Tobias, however, show a far more conflicted view behind the scenes, with one of the paper’s primary authors writing in an email to the group on Feb. 8, 2020: “I believe that publishing something that is open-ended could backfire at this stage.”

Nonetheless, the paper enjoyed a cushy institutional reception a month later. Fauci endorsed it in an April press conference; Collins wrote a blog post promoting it; ABC News ran a story using the study’s conclusions to dismiss lab-origin conjectures as conspiracy theories. It is now one of the most-read scientific papers in history and has been cited over 2,700 times.

Whether a product of cynicism or mere panic, this episode serves as a reminder – at a moment in which we seem cautiously willing to reappraise our pandemic response – of just how much power a small number of scientists had over the direction of our early COVID conversations. In this way, it echoes the story of Stanford’s Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, who has just written two essays for Tablet and the National Post urging that we not forget some of our gravest pandemic missteps.

Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine, economics, and health policy research at Stanford University. He holds an MD and PhD from Stanford and directs the university’s Center for Demography and Economics of Health and Aging. He first gained national prominence in early 2020, after publishing a few COVID seroprevalence studies in Los Angeles and Santa Clara counties. These studies attempted to measure SARS-CoV-2 infection rates using blood antibody tests; both concluded that COVID had already infected orders of magnitude more people than was being reported at the time in those regions. The takeaway of these findings, disputed as they often were, was that COVID wasn’t as deadly as the public was being told.

Informed by this data, and remembering the United States’ pre-COVID pandemic playbook, Bhattacharya drafted the Great Barrington Declaration at a conference hosted by the American Institute for Economic Research, or AIER. This one-page open letter, written with Dr. Martin Kulldorff of Harvard and Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford, argued that the U.S. was getting its lockdown strategy horribly wrong. Local authorities should adopt a “focused protection” paradigm, they advised, which would have meant marshaling public health resources predominantly for those most at risk from the virus while encouraging those at less risk to resume normal activities. Their intent was to promote a discussion of a strategy that would minimizing ancillary harm wrought by indiscriminate closures and mandates. It was written and revised over the course of a weekend and published on Oct. 5, 2020.

On Oct. 15, AIER writer Phillip Magness reported that in only 10 days, the Great Barrington Declaration had garnered over 500,000 signatures globally, with representatives from almost every country on Earth. Some 25,000 of these signatures came from medical practitioners, and 9,000 from health scientists, such as Nobel-winning chemist Michael Levitt.

Attacks on Bhattacharya and the Declaration came almost immediately. On Oct. 9, the Great Barrington Declaration website was targeted by a hoax signature campaign initiated on Twitter by leftist British journalist Nafeez Ahmed, which was then reported on credulously in multiple news outlets. Ahmed also speculated for the Byline Times that the Declaration was a Koch-funded piece of propaganda.

Perhaps most consequential were the efforts at suppression from more institutional figures. Collins, in an Oct. 8, 2020, email to Fauci obtained by AIER via a Freedom of Information Act request, labeled Bhattacharya, a tenured professor of medicine, a “fringe epidemiologist” while calling for a “quick and devastating public takedown,” verbiage reiterated in an Oct. 14 Washington Post article quoting him. This back-and-forth between two of the nation’s most powerful health officials resulted in a chummy exchange with two writers – Gregg Gonsalves at The Nation and Matt Reynolds at Wired – who had just published their own Bhattacharya criticisms. One of the final emails in the unclassified collection shows Fauci’s chief of staff, Greg Folkers, supplying his boss with seven anti-Declaration opinion pieces.

The U.K. attempted its own version of this institutional discrediting effort. In an August 2021 piece for Spiked, Bhattacharya quoted Jeremy Farrar, director of the London-based health NGO the Wellcome Trust, as having said that political strategist Dominic Cummins “wanted to run an aggressive press campaign against those behind the Great Barrington Declaration and others opposed to blanket COVID-19 restrictions.” Farrar was also a member of the small group discussing COVID origins in the weeks leading up to the publication of “The proximate origin of SARS-CoV-2.”

Finally, there is the most recent revelation, published by Bari Weiss as an installment of the ongoing “Twitter Files.” According to an internal document supplied to Weiss by Elon Musk soon after his purchase of the social media giant, Bhattacharya’s personal Twitter account was placed on a “Trends Blacklist.” This is a throttling mechanism designed to limit the reach of a user’s posts, and it was implemented the very day Bhattacharya joined the website and sent his first tweet – a link to the Great Barrington Declaration homepage.

As of this writing, the Declaration boasts over 936,000 signatures and has been translated into 44 languages. Bhattacharya continues to communicate his message on those outlets that will publish him. He spoke with Weiss at a forum hosted by the Free Press last month detailing the most personal affront he’s dealt with over the last two years: the chilly indifference from Stanford University. “Stanford handled it very, very poorly,” he said. “And they sent signals to me in the Summer of 2020 that if I just stayed silent, they would leave me alone.”

end

Amazing: they asked Damar why his heart stopped and he replied: “something I want to stay away from”

No question:  the vaccine caused myocarditis and clots stopped his heart

(zerohedge)

Damar Hamlin Is Asked About Why His Heart Stopped: ‘Something I Want To Stay Away From’

WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 09:45 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin in a recent interview said he would not disclose the reason why he suffered cardiac arrest during a nationally broadcast game last month.Buffalo Bills defensive back Damar Hamlin (3) leaves the field after an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in Foxborough, Mass., on Dec. 1, 2022. (Greg M. Cooper/AP Photo, File)

In his first interview since the incident, Hamlin discussed his collapse during a Jan. 2 “Monday Night Football” game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Hamlin spent more than a week in the hospital.

“You’re 24. Peak physical condition [that] could run circles around me right now. How did the doctors describe what happened to you?” ABC News’ “Good Morning America” host Michael Strahan, himself a former NFL player, asked Hamlin during an interview published this week.

Hamlin stated that he would not comment on what doctors told him. “That’s something I want to stay away from,” Hamlin said in response, which was not included in an ABC News article about the interview.

Strahan then asked: “I know from my experience at NFL, they do more tests than anything. And in the course of you having your physical, did anybody ever come back with any, say, you had a heart issue or anything that was abnormal?”

“Honestly, no. I’ve always been a healthy, young, fit, energetic human being, let alone athlete. So it was something that [we’re] still processing, and I’m still talking through my doctors to see what everything was,” Hamlin said in response.

Hamlin has continued to recover since he was released from the hospital last month. His interview with Strahan is the first one since he suffered the medical emergency.

Also in the interview, Hamlin said that he remembers preparing for the “Monday Night Football” game against the Bengals in Cincinnati and was feeling fine.

“I remember the things that we were focused on going into the game,” Hamlin told Strahan. “Just trying to get a win.”

Read more here…

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GLOBAL ISSUES;/GLOBAL ECONOMIES

 DR PAUL ALEXANDER/DR PANDA

East Palestine toxicology test relies on controversial consulting firm accused of serving corporate interest rather than public health

The company hired by Norfolk Southern has already persuaded 340 residents to sign agreements that reportedly waive their legal rights in the aftermath of Ohio’s train crash.

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THREAD: Photos, videos, and news reports about the train derailment and toxic chemical release in East Palestine, Ohio. This may be the largest environmental disaster in U.S. history.

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7:25 PM ∙ Feb 13, 2023154,731Likes52,541Retweets

The Center for Toxicology and Environmental Health (CTEH), a private contractor hired by Norfolk Southern to test water, soil, and air quality in East Palestine, Ohio, has a history of minimizing the effects of environmental disasters to satisfy its corporate employers, according to critics.

While the Arkansas-based firm provides consulting services to various industries, it is known for performing toxicology monitoring for the oil and gas industry following health and safety incidents.

After a million gallons of oil spilled on a Louisiana town in 2005, after a flood of toxic coal ash smothered central Tennessee in 2008, and after defective Chinese drywall began plaguing Florida homeowners, CTEH was on the scene — saying everything was fine.

In each of these cases, the toxicology firm was alleged to be supplying the data its employers wanted while falsely assuring the public that they were safe from harm.

Source: Mother Jones

The company’s work for BP in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, for example, drew accusations of the “fox guarding the chicken coop” from the New York Times and “conflicts of interest” from Democrats in Congress.

New York Times:

As BP continues to claim that the leaking oil has caused “no significant exposures,” despite the hospitalization of several workers and the sparse release of test data, these observers of CTEH’s work say the firm has a vested interest in finding a clean bill of health to satisfy its corporate employer.

“It’s essentially the fox guarding the chicken coop,” said Nicholas Cheremisinoff, a former Exxon chemical engineer who now consults on pollution prevention. “There is a huge incentive for them to under-report” the size of the spill, Cheremisinoff added, and “the same thing applies on the health and safety side.”

Another toxicologist familiar with CTEH, who requested anonymity to avoid retribution from the firm, described its chemical studies as designed to meet the goals of its clients. “They’re paid to say everything’s OK,” this source said. “Their work product is, basically, they find the least protective rules and regulations and rely on those.”

Matt Landon, a staff member at the anti-mountaintop removal mining group United Mountain Defense, encountered CTEH in the wake of the 2008 breach in a coal ash dam run by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). Landon said his group began its own air monitoring after finding CTEH employees installing low-volume monitors that community advocates believed were not strong enough to measure air quality in compliance with EPA standards.

“People were getting sick,” Landon recalled, “eyes swelling up, rashes, ear aches, wedding bands tarnishing. They said it was taking them time to get high-volume monitors out there.”

In 2010, Rep. Lois Capps (D-Calif.) and Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) called for BP to end its contract with CTEH. The lawmakers alleged that CTEH had a history of botched data collection methods and supplying insufficient data to serve the corporate interests of its employers rather than protecting public health.

They cited the company’s inaccurate monitoring procedures during an air quality survey following the 2008 coal ash spill in Tennessee, bad sampling techniques used to evaluate soil contamination at a 2005 refinery spill in Louisiana, and a controversial analysis of toxic drywall in 2006.

“When commissioned by Knauf Plasterboard Tianjin to test their Chinese drywall for toxicity, CTEH concluded that it was not toxic. However, the Consumer Product Safety Commission found it to be the top “problem drywall” for hydrogen sulfide contamination,” the lawmakers explained.

Knauf Plasterboard later settled a class-action lawsuit by agreeing to pay between $600 million and $1 billion to homeowners affected by the hazardous material.

“Enlisting CTEH—a company with a long history of questionable practices—is just another indication that BP is more concerned about their own bottom line than the public’s health,” the lawmakers concluded. “The choice of CTEH to perform critical toxicology functions is yet another misstep at the expense of public health.”

Source: archive.org

Katlyn Schwarzwaelder, a Doberman kennel owner in East Palestine, Ohio, joined the Glenn Beck show yesterday and said that four of her dogs were projectile vomiting, her eyes and throat get itchy and burn when she visits her home, and she plans to abandon East Palestine forever because of her long-term health concerns.

kanekoa.substack.com @KanekoaTheGreat

#28 Katlyn Schwarzwaelder tells Glenn Beck four of her dogs were projectile vomiting, her eyes and throat get itchy and burn when she visits her home, and she plans to abandon East Palestine forever because of her long-term health concerns: “I had four youtube.com/watch?v=BQ2dV7…… https://t.co/ph4pUGAIgt

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4:39 AM ∙ Feb 15, 2023

969Likes477Retweets

Schwarzwaelder also described an interaction with a CTEH contractor and an EPA official that came to test the air quality at her home:

We were told by Norfolk personnel that the agency coming to our homes to test was from independent laboratories. Now, what I can tell you first hand is that we had a gentleman from CTEH, which is the so-called independent laboratory, we had spoken to him very informally, and he said, “we follow around the railroad when they make mistakes, and they are happy to have us here.” 

When CTEH came to our facility to test our air, they had not offered water services at that point in time; they handed me a contract that essentially said that I needed to hold Norfolk, their affiliates, including CTEH, harmless of any future liabilities.

I didn’t sign it, but unfortunately, 340 other residents did sign it. That’s where my heart just breaks for these people because we don’t know the long-term repercussions of what these chemicals can do in our air to our environment to our businesses and they’ve signed their rights away in the hopes that they are getting help and the right answers from these organizations.

CTEH the affiliate of Norfolk that came to test the air was followed by the EPA. We asked if the EPA can come into our kennel and can they test themselves because they are a government organization that has the ability and they have the testing equipment with them and the answer was absolutely not.

Glenn Beck @glennbeck

This is the contract

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4:35 PM ∙ Feb 15, 2023340Likes173Retweets

It is concerning to hear that 340 residents affected by the Norfolk Southern train crash in East Palestine, Ohio, may have already signed settlement agreements that waive their legal rights. Residents should seek legal advice before signing any contracts to ensure that they receive proper compensation for any damages or losses they have suffered.

In a similar 2005 incident, a Norfolk Southern train crashed and spilled toxic chemicals in Graniteville, South Carolina, causing 5,400 residents to evacuate their homes. Residents who immediately accepted compensation and signed settlement agreements with Norfolk Southern forfeited their right to any further damages.

It is also concerning to hear that the EPA is not testing homes and businesses and instead recommending residents sign contracts with CTEH, a consulting firm hired by Norfolk Southern with a controversial reputation.

Residents affected by the Norfolk Southern train crash deserve an independent testing company that does not have a track record of downplaying the impact of environmental disasters to cater to the interests of their corporate employers. Otherwise, it would be like having the proverbial “fox guarding the chicken coop.”

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THIS IS HUGE!! THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING TO OUR ATHLETES

2005 mice study adds more evidence that a myocarditis scarred heart (as in ‘silent’ myocarditis) due to the COVID gene injection vaccine may be strained & devastated by epinephrine (adrenaline)

This study supports our argument (McCullough, Stock, I etc.) that we are looking at vaccine-induced myocardium scarring strained via exertional induced catecholamines e.g. epinephrine on damaged heart

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A single dose of epinephrine 120 days after EMCV inoculation caused sudden death in 70% of infected mice; propranolol significantly reduced incidence of death to 33%.

Our argument on ‘DYING AT DAWN IN YOUR SLEEP’ and ‘DIED SUDDENTLY’ is given support by this rodent study.

SOURCE:

https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/ajpheart.00258.2005

‘Researchers investigated the impact of the ‘β-adrenergic system on cytokines and neurohumoral factors and the sequelae of viral myocarditis. In an experimental model with virus-infected BALB/c mice, we studied the acute and chronic effects of epinephrine and propranolol on myocardial morphology, cytokine gene expression, and survival.

Mice were inoculated with the encephalomyocarditis virus (EMCV) or sham inoculated with saline and followed for 30 days.

Epinephrine increased the severity of inflammatory cell infiltration and myocardial necrosis induced by EMCV. Gene expression of TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-10 was markedly enhanced by epinephrine in EMCV-inoculated mice. Survival rate after 30 days was reduced to 40% in epinephrine-treated EMCV-inoculated mice compared with 70% in untreated EMCV-inoculated mice (P < 0.05).

Treatment with the β-blocker propranolol significantly decreased mortality, myocardial necrosis, and infiltration of inflammatory cells in EMCV-inoculated mice. Propranolol also suppressed gene expression of TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-10.

A single dose of epinephrine 120 days after EMCV inoculation caused sudden death in 70% of infected mice; propranolol significantly reduced incidence of death to 33%. These results indicate that acute and chronic stages of viral myocarditis are modulated by the β-adrenergic system and its interactions with proinflammatory cytokines.’

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter

17 year old Quebec football player (William Caron-Cabrera) dies suddenly in his sleep; Dying at dawn in your sleep, dying on the sports field both due to catecholamine surge (dopamine, adrenaline)

17 year old Quebec football player (William Caron-Cabrera) dies suddenly in sleep, cardiac arrest! SOURCE:Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber…

Read more

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What is going on here!!

Dr. Harvey Risch, Dr. Peter McCullough, & myself, Dr. Paul Alexander were invited to 45’s (POTUS Trump’s) home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, yesterday for a meeting/gathering; Dr. McCullough was in travel

Dr. McCullough was in Australia; Photos to come; persons in attendance asked that the content and substance not be shared, photos ok. To come. Very interesting ‘good’ people were there. Patriots!

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Bernie Marcus, Home Depot owner: ‘Nobody gives a damn’: Home Depot’s co-founder says the rise of radical left & ‘socialism’ is making people too lazy, fat and stupid to work; BOOM, I agree with him!!

Mic drop: “Nobody works. Nobody gives a damn. ‘Just give it to me. Send me money. I don’t want to work — I’m too lazy, I’m too fat, I’m too stupid,’” he says.

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Ufc Joe Rogan GIF - Ufc Joe Rogan Knocked Out GIFs

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CELL study (2021) showed potency of NATURAL infection-acquired immunity being protective, robust & long-lasting with long-term antibody responses, memory B & T cells (& CD8+ T targeting nucleoprotein)

This was one of many studies shown in my Brownstone seminal paper on natural immunity being superior to vaccinal immunity, then why didn’t vaccine makers use nucleoprotein (conserved) as a target?

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SOURCE:

https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2666379121002032%3Fshowall%3Dtrue

Pfizer and Moderna etc. used the spike protein on the viral ball as the ONLY immune antibody target and they knew this would fail for it was highly mutable. It is as if the vaccine was designed to fail so that it would be a clear mismatch (due to the highly mutable spike) with each booster (due to immune imprinting, fixation, original antigenic sin) and thus constant sub-optimal population immune pressure on the target antigen, with viral immune escape as well as antibody-dependent enhancement of infection and/or disease. This is exactly what has materialized post COVID gene injection shot. A pure failure and it is deadly too. Why? Why did vaccine makers not utilize more conserved proteins (less mutable) on or within the virus like the nucleoprotein to derive the immune response? What they did continues to make absolutely no sense.

‘Virus-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells are polyfunctional and maintained with an estimated half-life of 200 days. Interestingly, CD4+ T cell responses equally target several SARS-CoV-2 proteins, whereas the CD8+ T cell responses preferentially target the nucleoprotein, highlighting the potential importance of including the nucleoprotein in future vaccines.’


VACCINE INJURY/

VACCINE IMPACT

No Vaccine No Food? Grocery Industry Merging with Big Tech and Big Pharma as New App Tracks Drug and Vaccine Purchases Along with Food

February 15, 2023 3:21 pm

Big Food is making its move into the “digital health space” as grocery chain giant Albertsons announced the roll-out of its “Sincerely Health” platform along with a new app where customers “can connect data from wearables, integrate prescriptions, design their diet and make telehealth or vaccination appointments.” Albertsons, which includes other mega grocery chains such as Safeway, Vons, Shaw’s, Jewel-Osco, Acme and Tom Thumb, among others, is currently in talks to merger with Kroger, another mega grocery chain, which would give them 36% control over the grocery supermarket business in the United States. Walmart, the largest grocery chain in the U.S., offers something similar, as they recently teamed up with Avanlee Care, which offers caregivers a similar platform integrated with Walmart shopping lists and pharmacy tools. Your grocery purchasing habits have been considered very valuable data for decades now, with most major supermarkets offering things like “loyalty” cards that give discounts on grocery products. But now, Big Food wants to merge that with your Big Pharma purchases as well, which would include prescription drug purchases as well as vaccines. It’s not difficult then to see just how Big Food can now potentially use this data against you. These apps that combine your drug, vaccine, food, and doctor appointment purchases could easily be used in the future to prevent you from accessing these purchases if you do not comply with their requirements, such as being up-to-date on your vaccines. Those who receive government aid, such as food stamps, Section 8 housing, Medicare/Medicaid, etc., could all be tied into the information you provide on these apps. Don’t do it! It is not worth the rebates or food coupon discounts you receive if you have to surrender your personal data to receive such “benefits.”

Read More…

end

SLAY NEWS//

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK

The Lines Between The Fed, Treasury And White House Have Completely Blurred

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 12:20 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s strong headline US retail sales print, and an uptick in the NAHB home builders index, were further arguments for the Fed to keep hiking. Stocks may have risen on another short squeeze, hedge fund re-risking, or the underlying view that the better things get, the more the Fed hikes, and then the more the Fed has to cut – but they rose. Yet so did Treasury yields, which leaped around 10bp across the curve before 2s ended +2bp at 4.63%, 5s +4bp at 4.04%, 10s +7bp at 3.81%.

While the housing survey is ‘real’, retail sales gains were not. Yes, headline spending was up 3.0% m-o-m, and bars and restaurants spending up 7.2%: but does the latter say belts are being loosened, or that we are trying to stay drunk to get through this inflation? Indeed, inflation alone lifted retail sales values. You aren’t spending 20% more in real terms if your drink just cost you 20% more. (And it will likely soon cost more again if the IRS start looking at wait-staff tips.) The lines between fiction and reality are too easily blurred by too much money spent in bars.

And on blurred lines, Vice-Chair Brainard –an MMT-adjacent and digital-dollar backing dove– just left her next-in-line position at the world’s most powerful central bank to become the eminence grise at the less-eminent National Economic Council (NEC) that advises the president. That seems an odd career move when Fed Chair Powell may not be around forever. Rumours are now the White House will propose Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee to replace Brainard. He only joined the Fed on January 9 this year(!) and served as chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) from 2009-2011 in his cabinet. This appointment would therefore continue the trend towards more political choices at the Fed, and the blurring of the lines between the Fed, with a Vice-Chair who chaired the CEA, and Treasury, led by former Fed Chair Yellen, and the White House, advised by former Fed Vice-Chair Brainard.

Before anyone shares the internet meme of the guy ranting at a board with photos, strings and pins in it, this is just an observation of fact. It could all just be an incredible coincidence, or reflect a shallow gene-pool for talent. However, how would you react if you saw this unfold in an emerging market? The longer run implications for what this might also mean for fiscal and monetary policy, and the risks of blurred lines between them, is still in ranting-at-boards-with-photos-strings-and-pins territory. For now. (But as I walk away from it, I can’t resist a last Tourette’s-like “Rate hikes and QE!”)

Nearer term, Goolsbee is already in the Fed – for five minutes. He has had regular media presence in the past, and in his own words, in past economic roles “was probably best as a policy explainer.” That would be useful, but what might he be explaining?

He does have a good economics mind. Indeed, he has recently done some interesting NBER work on productivity in the US construction sector, arguing “Aggregate data show a large and decades-long decline in construction sector productivity. This decline in such a large sector has had a material effect on secular productivity growth for the economy as a whole,” and yet not concluding ‘because markets’ but rather that, “States with more productive construction sectors do not see growth in their shares of total US construction activity; if anything, their shares fall.” In other words, things are complicated and structural.

He also has a political mind, and was involved in ‘NAFTA-gate’ in 2008, where the allegation was he conveyed a private message to Canada that President Obama’s public criticism of NAFTA was to be ignored. (Of course, we then got President Trump and NAFTA became USMCA, and boards with photos, strings, and pins became the mainstream media.)  

In terms of monetary policy, after ‘doing an Ueda’ (i.e., Googling someone markets are supposed to pretend we know everything about), Goolsbee has in the past mentioned the need for a Fed “séance to the ghost of Volcker” if excess inflation and demand result in higher inflation expectations, which would require “the Fed Funds rate going to 20%”(!), but only to then dismiss that approach as a “devil” that only results in stagflation. Indeed, at the end of October last year, when still Professor of Economics at the Chicago Booth School, he spoke to Bloomberg and noted: “The Fed can raise interest rates, the Fed can raise unemployment, but higher unemployment is not going to bring down prices if a large component of that inflation is coming from [supply].”

In other words –surprise!– Goolsbee’s a dove perhaps heading for the Fed Vice-Chair. And Brainard is better placed to push for a digital dollar –if not MMT– from the NEC than she is from the Fed. Oops! I’m back at the board again! The White House will be talking about aliens next…

So, where does this leave Fed Chair Powell? Feeling out of the loop? Or might he be even more determined to get things done while he still can? The risks may be of the latter, especially with the retail and housing numbers, on top of payrolls and initial claims. Or the recent pick up in Bitcoin. Oh no! I’m back pointing at photos, string, and pins, aren’t I?

As was mentioned to me yesterday, the next FOMC dot plot will be pivotal because the Fed knows the market is looking at it carefully and is expecting it to act hawkishly; and the market knows the Fed knows it knows that. Hence, if the Fed doesn’t shift its dot plot higher as well as hiking then the market, which only just shifted its rate expectations up towards the bottom end of the last dot plot, will almost certainly react by shifting them back down again, easing financial conditions. As a result, as was reiterated yesterday, the risk is of an argument that was also seen as a board with photos, string, and pins meme last year – even higher for even longer.

Meanwhile, perhaps as a precursor for the Fed(?), Aussie labor data were weaker than expected. Part-time jobs rose 31.8K, but full-time were -43.3K, and the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7% alongside a tick lower in the participation rate to 66.5%. On one hand, this makes it easier for the RBA to hold off on rate hikes. (More so as CBA household spending slumped 6.9% m-o-m in January, and February inflation expectations dipped from 5.6% to 5.1%.) However, given inflation is still too high, and that an RBA pivot would see housing, employment, and –inflation– pick up again, and that the Fed is doing more, not less, and China doing less, not more, pressuring, AUD, the RBA can’t sit relax. It can only sweat profusely.

Finally, journalist Seymour Hersh is in the German press making the bold, evidence-free claim that “The President of the United States would rather see Germany freeze than [see] Germany possibly stop supporting Ukraine.” Perhaps – but sometimes stringers just have pins. Indeed, see this rebuttal in Tablet, which notes Hersh’s loose relationship with the truth, and underlines the people who think Biden can’t remember his own name or stand up for the US are saying he was also capable of cold, calculating, Machiavellian action. I also repeat that it doesn’t matter who blew up NordStream in terms of how markets should react – but they haven’t done so. No matter how clear the photos are, how thick the string is, and how deeply the pins are inserted, nothing seems to penetrate.

END

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

Our Petro-Yuan scheme working to perfection. Chinese refining giants have now resume purchases of Russia’s flagship crude at a huge discounted price

below $60.00 per barrel. Russia then takes the yuan and buys gold

Paraskova/OilPrice.com

Chinese Refining Giants Resume Purchases Of Russia’s Flagship Crude

WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 07:05 PM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

After a brief hiatus around the time the EU embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian crude came into force, China’s largest state-held refiners have resumed purchases of Russia’s flagship Urals crude at well below the $60 cap without breaching the sanctions, industry sources told Reuters on Wednesday.    

State oil refining giants PetroChina and Sinopec are back on the market for Urals and are buying it at deep discounts via trading companies that handle the payments to Russian oil exporters and arrange the shipping and insurance services, according to Reuters’ sources.  

The top state refiners in China are not violating the terms of the price cap mechanism and are not using Western tankers or insurance, either, the sources added. 

The state-owned refiners are expected to receive Urals crude from Russia this month, after last importing the blend in November last year, just ahead of the G7 price cap and the EU embargo which came into effect on December 5. While initially wary of how the mechanism will actually work, Chinese state refiners are now back to buying and importing Urals.

Such trades are beneficial for the Chinese refiners as they import crude at much lower prices than on the international markets, raising their profits from processing cheap crude at a time when China’s oil demand is set for a recovery after the end of the zero-Covid policy in the world’s largest crude oil importer. The trade is beneficial for Russia, to an extent, too—Moscow has a new major outlet for Urals, which used to go mostly to the European market prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Western sanctions on Russia’s crude oil exports.

However, the much cheaper Urals compared to a year ago is reducing Russia’s budget revenues, to which oil is a major contributor.

Due to the low price of Urals in January, Russia’s budget was $24.7 billion (1.76 trillion rubles) into deficit in January, compared to a surplus for January 2022, as state revenues from oil and gas plunged by 46.4% due to the low price of Urals and lower natural gas exports, the Russian Finance Ministry said in preliminary estimates last week. 

END

Prices are still elevated as Europe must buy natural gas at these prices for next year’s winter

(zerohedge)

Natural Gas Futures Contracts Suggest Europe’s Energy Crisis Isn’t Over

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 05:00 AM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Europe’s natural gas futures point to structurally higher prices for the rest of the year, as Europe will soon have to start filling inventories for the 2023/2024 winter.

The TTF price, Europe’s benchmark, slipped on Monday to the lowest level since September 2021, and Europe looks confident that there will not be gas shortages this winter.

However, the race to ensure supply for next winter hasn’t even started in earnest yet. Prices are set to hold higher than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine through the summer as Europe will face stiffer competition from Asia for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. TTF futures for December are priced above €60 per megawatt-hour, notably higher than the €54 per megawatt-hour for March.

Last year, Asia – including China – saw lukewarm demand amid high spot prices and a slowdown in the Chinese economy. With China’s reopening, however, demand for gas and LNG is set to rebound, increasing the competition between Asia and Europe for spot supply, analysts say.

Moreover, the weather in Europe has been milder than usual for prolonged periods so far this winter, allowing for less gas consumption for heating and power generation. It is far from certain that Europe, and the northern hemisphere as a whole, will see mild temperatures next winter, too.

Governments and regulators in the EU say that while a major gas shortage crisis has been averted for this winter, next winter could be more difficult.

“Prices seem likely to remain structurally higher than they were before the Russian invasion,” Henning Gloystein, director for energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, said in a recent note carried by Bloomberg.

Europe continues to add new LNG import capacity, especially in Germany and the Netherlands, but if global supply is tighter, prices will spike again.

Europe’s gas prices were up by around 3% at $58 (54 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh) around noon in Amsterdam on Wednesday.

Prices have held in the $53-64 (50-60 euros) per MWh for weeks amid higher-than-seasonal gas inventories, mild weather, and steady inflows of LNG. 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

SOUTH AFRICA

My goodness is this very strange:  NAVAL DRILLS with warships from China and Russia

(zerohedge)

South Africa To Host ‘Strange’ Naval Drills With Warships From China, Russia

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 04:15 AM

Authored by Darren Taylor via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

South Africa is set to host what analysts have described as “10 days of war games” with China and Russia from Feb. 17 to Feb. 26, which coincides with the anniversary of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.Russian President Vladimir Putin (2nd R) stands with three Russian naval officers at a parade marking Navy Day in St. Petersburg, Russia, on July 31, 2022. (Maxim Shemetov/Reuters)

The countries involved have described the event, to be held off South Africa’s east coast, as a “multilateral maritime exercise.”

“We are very much looking forward to seeing the Russian and Chinese navies in action; I am sure our navy will learn a lot,” a senior official in South Africa’s defense department told Voice of America.A Chinese navy formation, including the aircraft carrier Liaoning (C), during military drills in the South China Sea, on Jan. 2, 2017. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

“They have told us the warships are on their way, and they intend to demonstrate all kinds of sophisticated equipment and weapons, navigation systems, and much more.”

Guy Martin, a military and defense analyst at defenceWeb, a portal that analyzes military and security issues in Africa, told The Epoch Times that the Russian warship Admiral Gorshkov, currently off the Syrian coast, would soon make its way to the port of Durban.

“It’s armed with hypersonic Zircon missiles,” he said.

According to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, Zircon missiles fly at nine times the speed of sound and have a range of at least 750 kilometers (466 miles), although the Russian military insists the range is more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles).

“The Zircon missile is strategically valuable due primarily to its speed,” the alliance states on its website.

“In April 2017, it was reported that the Zircon had reached a speed of Mach 8 during a test. If that information is accurate, the Zircon missile would be the fastest in the world, making it nearly impossible to defend against due to its speed alone.

“Another valuable aspect of the missile is its plasma cloud. During flight, the missile is completely covered by a plasma cloud that absorbs any rays of radio frequencies and makes the missile invisible to radars. This allows the missile to remain undetected on its way to the target.”A hypersonic Zircon cruise missile is fired from the guided missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov during a test at the Barents Sea, in this still image taken from a video that was released on May 28, 2022. (Russian Defence Ministry/Handout via Reuters)

Russian President Vladimir Putin “has boasted about the Zircon missiles being able to pierce American defense systems,” Martin told the Epoch Times.

“He loves talking about them and really regards them as being the showpiece of his arsenal of cruise weapons,” he said.

“So, for him to be sending a ship armed with Zircons to South Africa is quite something.

“The message it’s sending is, ‘We regard our relationship with you as so close that we’re willing to show you our best weapons; we’re willing to show you the full capabilities of our naval force, and we know you won’t tell the West anything about what we show you, because you’re on our side against the imperialists.’”

‘Nostalgic Reasons’

“Economically speaking, it doesn’t make sense at all for the government to ally itself with Russia,” Steven Gruzd, head of the African Governance and Diplomacy Program at the South African Institute of International Affairs, told The Epoch Times.

“Therefore, the only logical conclusion to draw is that the ANC is with Russia for nostalgic reasons, and also because it has bought into the Russian narrative that the war also represents a struggle against the imperialist West that bullies smaller countries.

“This, of course, ignores the fact that Russia is bullying Ukraine—or trying to, at least.”

Spector said the ANC is ignoring the “wishes and desires” of its own people by siding with Russia.

“The African middle-class and aspirant middle-class population is growing dramatically, and there are more people under the age of 30 in Africa than anywhere else,” he said.

“Ask those people if they want Russian or American goods and services. Pretty much everybody I’ve met in Africa who has any money is keen to get hold of some aspect of American output.”

Martin said South Africa’s participation in naval exercises, no matter the countries involved, is also “strange on a practical level,” given the “poor state” that its navy is in.

Much of South Africa’s naval fleet is in drydock because of a lack of funding and poor maintenance of vessels.

Read more here…

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0700  UP 9

USA/ YEN 133.94 UP 0.034/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2039  UP   0.0001

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 31.46 PTS OR 0.96% 

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 301.59 PTS OR 1.43% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.82%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED  UP 301.59 PTS OR 1.43%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.46 PTS OR 0.96% 

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .82% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 194.53 PTS OR 0.71%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1838.95

silver:$21.59

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 103.62 DOWN 16  BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY’s close.

 THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.345% UP 0  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.495% DOWN 0 AND 7/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.516%// DOWN 1  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.318 DOWN 2   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.469 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0681 DOWN 0.0010 or  10 basis points//

USA/Japan: 133.97  UP 0.059 OR YEN DOWN 6 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.20136 DOWN.0021 OR 21 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0054 OR 54 BASIS pts  to 1.3446

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.8607) 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8670

TURKISH LIRA:  18.86  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.495…VERY DANGEREOUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2  IN basis points from TUESDAY at  3.825% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.881 UP 3 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.84 UP 1  BASIS PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 13.45 PTS OR  0.17%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 33.46POINTS OR 0.22%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 57.01PTS OR 0.21% 

Spain IBEX  UP 36.00POINTS OR 0.39%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  UP 333.01 PTS OR  1.21%

WTI Oil price 78.69  12: EST

Brent Oil:  85.48 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   DOWN TO:  74.86/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 28/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.469

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.518 UP 3 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0674  DOWN 0.0018    OR 18 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1995 DOWN .0043  or  43 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.525% UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 133.86 DOWN .037////YEN  UP 4 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3454 UP .0062 (CDN dollar, DOWN  62 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 78,01

Brent OIL:  84.68

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 3.859% 

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS PTS to 3.921% 

USA dollar index: 103.94 UP10  BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.85

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  74.86  DOWN  0 AND  21/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 431.20 PTS OR 1.26% 

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 245.41 PTS OR 1.33%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.17 UP 1.44 PTS (10.64)%

GLD: $170.89 DOWN 0.14 OR 0.08%

SLV/ $19.84 DOWN 0,05 OR 0.25%

end)

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Hawkish FedSpeak Hammers Stocks; Bitcoin Bid After ‘Bad’ Data

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 04:01 PM

Is stagflation rearing its ugly head again – hotter than expected PPI today mixed with disappointingly weak housing data and a collapse in Philly Fed while jobless number remain around one-year highs. Inflation swaps have turned notably higher in recent days (after weeks of disinflationary declines) while Industrial data has serially disappointed…

Source: Bloomberg

Cleveland Fed’s Mester (a well known hawk) dropped the hammer on the market after a slew of macro data this morning, saying that she saw a compelling case to hike by 50bps at the last meeting…

  • *MESTER: LATEST CPI DATA IS ‘CAUTIONARY TALE’ FOR POLICYMAKERS, GOODS PRICE DISINFLATION SEEMS TO BE SLOWING
  • *MESTER: GOOD TO SEE FINANCIAL CONDITIONS TIGHTENING

After Mester had clubbed stocks lower, shorts were squeezed and stocks ramped higher…

Source: Bloomberg

But, later in the day – after stocks had melted up to unchanged – another Fed hawk (St.Louis’ Jim Bullard) dropped a headline bomb, echoing Mester:

  • *BULLARD: MORE RATE HIKES NEEDED TO LOCK IN DISINFLATION
  • *BULLARD: FED RISKS REPLAY OF 1970S IF CAN’T LOWER INF. SOON
  • *BULLARD SAYS HE WOULDN’T RULE OUT SUPPORTING 50-BP MARCH HIKE

Nothing really new from him, but The Fed’s message remains clear and that wiped all the lipstick off this market pig with Nasdaq the big laggard but all the majors closed at the lows of the day…

The S&P is back to unch on the week (Dow red)…

So far the S&P 500 has traded completely within last week’s range… and last week traded completely within the prior week’s range…

Source: Bloomberg

Tech stocks continue to lead the charge in February (and Energy lag)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, most notably Goldman’s Prime desk reports that over the past 12 trading days, net buying in US Tech stocks was mainly driven by short covers and to a much lesser extent long buys that made up ~80% and 20% of the notional net buying, respectively.

In cumulative notional terms, the short covering in US Tech stocks from Jan 31st to Feb 15th is the second largest in magnitude over any 12-day period in the past decade and ranks in the 99.5th percentile (only the period from late Jan to early Feb ’21 saw more intense short covering by hedge funds amid the meme frenzy).

Which means that this rally is likely not over since this is more ‘max pain’ covering than it is funds chasing/reloading exposures.

TSLA had quite a tumble (initially on the recall then on the broad market)…

Treasury yields ended the day higher across the curve with the short-end outperforming (2Y +0.5bps, 30Y +6.5bps) as Bullard’s late comments sent the entire curve higher. On the week we note an interesting pattern to the buying and selling by region…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the day higher after the late-day bounce…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged above $25,000 today, its highest since June 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Volatile day in gold saw the precious metal end higher, back above $1850…

Oil prices fell on the day with WTI unable to hold above $79…

Finally, we note that March rate-hike odds rose modestly today (after Bullard and Mester) with a 13% chance of 50bps hike (conditioned on a 100% chance of 25bps hike)…

Source: Bloomberg

But financial conditions have started to tighten once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Will Powell actually care this time?

EARLY MORNING TRADING//

Mester demands another 50 point rise in interest rates to 5%

(zerohedge)

Stocks & Bonds Puke After Fed’s Mester Drops ‘Hawk Bomb’

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 09:10 AM

After hot PPI, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester rubbed salt in the wounds of the market this morning when said she saw a compelling case for rolling out another 50 basis point hike earlier this month and the US central bank has to be prepared to move interest rates higher if inflation remains stubbornly high.

“At this juncture, the incoming data have not changed my view that we will need to bring the fed funds rate above 5% and hold it there for some time,” Mester said Thursday in remarks prepared for an event organized by the Global Interdependence Center and the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee.

“Indeed, at our meeting two weeks ago, setting aside what financial market participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case for a 50 basis-point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%.”

Additionally, as Bloomberg reports, Mester said inflation risks remain tilted to the upside because of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which adds more uncertainty for food and energy prices. China’s reopening could also increase demand for commodities, she said

Mester, one of the more hawkish Fed policymakers, said those upside risks support the case for “overshooting” on policy.

“Over-tightening also has costs, but if inflation begins to move down faster than anticipated, we can react appropriately,” Mester said.

As a reminder, Mester’s opinion matters since if Austan Goolsbee is appointed as Vice Chair (replacing Lael Brainard who is leaving to work at The White House), then Mester will become a ‘temporary’ voter until Goolsbee’s replacement is chosen. This means The Fed ‘voters’ lose an uber-dove (Brainard) and get an uber-hawk (Mester) in the short-term.

The reaction was not a positive one as stocks tanked…

Treasury yields rose on her comments…

Of course, the STIRs market had already started to price a more aggressive (for longer) Fed…

And the odds of 3 more 25bps hikes continue to rise…

The dollar rallied on her hawkish comments…

So is this just stocks waking up to reality?

end

Midmorning trading:

end

LATE AFTERNOON TRADING//GRAPH FORM//TIC

END

ii) USA DATA

PPI is the forerunner to price moves.  A surge in producer prices more than expected is a bad sign for future prices.  The big culrpit is gas prices

(zerohedge)

Producer Prices Surge More Than Expected In January As Gas Prices Rebound

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 08:40 AM

After hotter than expected consumer price inflation, consensus estimates are for a notable rebound in producer prices in January after a big surprise 0.4% decline MoM in December. In fact, like CPI, PPI came in hotter than expected, up 0.7% MoM, which pushed the YoY rise to +6.0% (down from +6.5% in December)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM jump in the headline since June 2022, but lowest YoY print since March 2021.

Core PPI rose even more than expected (+0.5% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp) to +5.4% YoY.

The index for final demand goods moved up 1.2 percent in January, the largest increase since rising 2.1 percent in June 2022.

Most of the January advance is attributable to a 5.0-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.6 percent. In contrast, prices for final demand foods fell 1.0 percent.

Nearly one-third of the January rise in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which increased 6.2 percent. The indexes for residential natural gas, diesel fuel, jet fuel, soft drinks, and motor vehicles also moved higher. Conversely, prices for fresh and dry vegetables decreased 33.5 percent. The indexes for residual fuels and for basic organic chemicals also declined.

The index for final demand services advanced 0.4 percent in January, the same as in December.

Over 80 percent of the broad-based increase in January is attributable to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which rose 0.6 percent.

Margins for final demand trade services moved up 0.2 percent.  Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services also advanced 0.2 percent.

 A major factor in the January rise in prices for final demand services was the index for hospital outpatient care, which jumped 1.4 percent. The indexes for automobiles and automobile parts retailing; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; portfolio management; chemicals and allied products wholesaling; and airline passenger services also moved higher. In contrast, margins for fuels and lubricants retailing fell 17.5 percent. Prices for long-distance motor carrying and for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice also declined.

The positive news is that the pipeline for inflation looks like its continuing to decline with intermediate demand inflation down to +4.71% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

This is not good news for Mr.Powell at all.

end

Total number of Americans on jobless benefits remain  at one year highs at 1.9 million.

(zerohedge)

Total Number Of Americans Claiming Jobless Benefits Hovers Near One-Year Highs

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 08:59 AM

While initial jobless claims continues to ignore the mass layoff announcements (due to severance etc for example), continuing claims ticked up modestly last week to 1.696mm Americans…

Source: Bloomberg

After the prior week’s surge in California’s jobless claims, the last week saw a major decline, with Ohio and Michigan seeing the biggest increase in claims last week…

The total number of Americans on some form of unemployment benefit continues to hover near one-year highs, over 1.9 million Americans…

Source: Bloomberg

end

Philly Fed unexpectedly tumbles to a recessionary 21 month low

(zerohedge)

Philly Fed Unexpectedly Tumbles To A Recessionary 21-Month Low

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 09:23 AM

One day after the Empire State Manufacturing Survey surprised by surging from a post-covid low of -32.90 to -5.80, one of the biggest monthly increases on record, today it was the Philly Fed’s survey to surprise to the downside. Whether it was the bitter Superbowl hangover, or just New York’s economic malaise shifted to the southwest, in February the Philly Fed reported that its business outlook plunged from -8.90 to a recessionary -24.30, a sixth consecutive negative reading and lowest reading since May 2020, the immediate depths of the covid crisis. Outside of covid, the last time the Philly Fed printed this low was in April 2009, in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis.

Commenting on the survey responses, the Philly Fed noted that general activity index declined further, the new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index remained positive but low. The employment index declined but remained positive, and the price indexes continued to suggest overall increases but were in line with long-run averages. Most of the survey’s future indicators were positive but low, suggesting tempered expectations for growth over the next six months.image.png

While the Future activity index remains modestly in expansion territory, the current indicators remained extremely weak and in deep contraction.

The diffusion index for current activity fell from a reading of -8.9 last month to -24.3 this month (see Chart), its sixth consecutive negative reading and lowest reading since May 2020. Thirty-one percent of the firms reported decreases (down from 33 percent last month), exceeding the 7 percent reporting increases (down from 24 percent); 57 percent of the firms reported no change in current activity (up from 37 percent last month). The index for current new orders declined 3 points to -13.6, its ninth consecutive negative reading, and the current shipments index edged down 2 points to 8.7.

The current employment index remained positive but decreased from 10.9 to 5.1 this month. Most firms (61 percent) reported steady employment levels, 21 percent of the firms reported higher employment, and 15 percent reported lower employment. The average workweek index fell from 4.0 to -3.2.

Meanwhile, the diffusion index for future general activity declined 3 points but remained positive at 1.7. Almost 29 percent of the firms expect an increase in activity over the next six months, narrowly exceeding the 27 percent that expect a decrease. The future new orders index rose from 2.4 to 9.2, while the future shipments index declined from 9.1 to 4.6. The firms expect increases in employment overall, as the future employment index rose 10 points to 8.1, after dipping into negative territory last month. Both future price indexes were below their long-run averages. The future capital expenditures index edged down 3 points to 7.5.

In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was for an expected increase of 4.5 percent, down slightly from 4.8 percent when this question was last asked in November. The firms reported a median increase of 7.0 percent in their own prices over the past year, down from 7.5 percent in November. The firms’ median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year was 4.0 percent, down from 5.0 percent in November. Over the long run, the firms’ median forecast for the 10-year average inflation rate was 3.0 percent, down from 4.0 percent in November.

In summary, responses to the February Philly Fed Mfg Survey suggest “continued overall declines in the region’s manufacturing sector this month.” The indicators for current activity and new orders remained in negative territory, while the shipments index remained positive but low. The firms continued to indicate overall increases in prices paid and received.

That said, considering how erratic all the various regional Feds have been in recent months, it’s becoming next to impossible hard to put any faith in any of these surveys.

end

Another good sign that the economy is very weak: housing starts and building permits weakest since COVID lockdowns

(zerohedge)

Housing Starts & Building Permits Weakest Since COVID Lockdowns

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 08:52 AM

Housing Starts and Permits have declined for 3 straight months but today’s data for January was expected to be more mixed with permits rebounding modestly while starts continue to decline (all while homebuilder sentiment expectations soars by the most ever). The forecasters were right in direction but way off in magnitude as Starts tumbled 4.5% MoM (and December was also revised notably weaker from -1.4% to -3.4%). Permits rose just 0.1% MoM in January after a 1.0% MoM decline in December…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the 5th straight monthly decline in Housing Starts – the longest streak of declines since 2009.

The total Starts and Permits SAAR (after revisions) tumbled to its weakest since the COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Single-family permits dropped 1.8% to 718K, lowest since May 2020 (and the 11th straight monthly decline), while Multi-family permits rose 0.5% to 563K

And starts fell in both: Multi-family starts tumbled 5.4% to 457K, lowest since Sept 2021, and Single-family starts drop 4.3% to 841K from 879K but above the 807K in November

So much for the surge in homebuilder sentiment expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that groundbreakings on single-family homes fell in the Northeast, possibly reflecting snowstorms, as well as the West, which could have been impacted by severe flooding in California. Meantime, single-family new construction rose in the Midwest and South.

Has the housing market ‘suffered enough pain’ yet for Powell to back off?

iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS

What a disaster:  the town of East Palestine was nuked and Biden and his team stay away

(zerohedge)

Watch: East Palestine Officials Hold Meeting With Frustrated Residents

https://WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM/POLITICAL/OHIO-CHERNOBYL-EAST-PALESTINE-TOWN-HALL-SCRAPPED-AFTER-RESIDENTS-REPORT-HEALTH-PROBLEMS

WEDNESDAY, FEB 15, 2023 – 08:20 PM

Update (2021ET):

East Palestine officials hold meeting with residents. Here’s the live feed: 

*   *   *

Update (1935ET):

As per The Independent:

Authorities in the Ohio town where a train derailed carrying toxic chemicals have scrapped plans for a question-and-answer session (town hall) for residents.

Health concerns are mounting among the citizens of East Palestine amid reports of dead animals and local people falling sick. 

The local mayor originally had announced that a Q&A town hall meeting would take place on Wednesday at 7 pm at East Palestine High School’s gymnasium, WKBN reported

So instead of a town hall, it appears officials are only hosting a meeting. Here’s more from The Independent:

Residents of East Palestine, Ohio are still searching for answers about the threats they’re facing to their health nearly two weeks after the train derailment that has forced many of them from their homes, and they’re hoping to get answers at tonight’s public meeting at the East Palestine High School at 7 pm local time.

WEWS-TV reported Wednesday that multiple tables will be set up inside the meeting where residents will have the opportunity to meet with officials including the town’s mayor about their concerns.

They will not, however, have the opportunity to question officials with rail operator Norfolk Southern after the rail company pulled out of the meeting due to what it said were concerns “about the growing physical threat to our employees and members of the community.”

So they are actually sitting in the gym now waiting for the mayor to talk. There seems to be confusion about whether or not people can ask questions considering Norfolk Southern was supposed to be present in the first place.— spoonie sheb (@ohsheb) February 16, 2023

*   *   *

Nearly two weeks after a Norfolk Southern Railway freight train with 150 cars (20 of which were carrying hazardous materials) derailed in the small town of East Palestine, Ohio, resulting in a chemical disaster, the extent of the damage to the town and surrounding communities remains unclear. 

On Tuesday, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine held a press conference for the Feb. 3 derailment. He said Norfolk Southern did not classify the train as a “high hazardous material train” despite multiple cars containing toxic chemical vinyl chloride. 

“This is absurd … Congress needs to take a look at how these things are handled,” DeWine said. 

There’s already an effort by lawmakers on Capitol Hill and federal agencies to investigate the derailment. Epoch Times noted: 

Key committees in the Republican-controlled House are holding their peace as investigations of the derailment and its environmental impact proceed.

A spokesperson for the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, led by Chairman Sam Graves (R-Mo.), said the committee was talking with the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Department of Transportation’s Federal Railroad Administration, and the railroad involved, Norfolk Southern.

“We will continue to monitor the situation and NTSB’s ongoing investigation,” the spokesperson told The Epoch Times in a Feb. 14 email.

Investigators have uncovered security camera footage 20 miles before East Palestine of the suspected railcar that caused the derailment. Footage shows one of the cars was on fire well before the small town. 

“NTSB investigators have identified and examined the rail car that initiated the derailment. Surveillance video from a residence showed what appears to be a wheel bearing in the final stage of overheat failure moments before the derailment,” NTSB wrote on its website.

OHIO – Security camera footage captured the Norfolk Southern train passing by Salem, OH with flames and sparks under at least one of the cars. #ohiotrainderailment pic.twitter.com/bh1WgiPpSr— Emmanuelle Saliba (@_esaliba) February 15, 2023

Michael Graham, a member of the NTSB, told reporters one day after the derailment:

“We’re also looking at a lot of different footage that has been provided to the investigators out there to determine if there’s some data on footage that we have from videos and cameras that might tell us something more that what might have happened to cause this accident.” 

At a follow-on briefing on Feb. 5, Graham said investigators were analyzing locomotive footage. He said the focus was one of the rail car’s axles. 

“We have obtained two videos which show preliminary indications of mechanical issues on one of the rail car axles,” Graham said. 

Graham added engineers on the train were alerted by a “wayside defect detector shortly before the derailment, indicating a mechanical issue.”

“Then an emergency brake application initiated,” he continued, adding that a preliminary investigative report was expected within several weeks, though a full probe could take as long as 24 months.

As investigators pinpoint the likely cause of the derailment, the environmental impact of the controlled burn of 20 railcars that contained toxic chemicals, including vinyl chloride, ethylhexyl acrylate, and isobutylene, has released what some described as a ‘chemical nuclear bomb’ that has contaminated the town and other surrounding communities. 

Following the burn, there have been numerous reports of wildlife dying, including fish and frogs in nearby streams.

While East Palestine residents are being told by Norfolk Southern and Ohio officials that everything is safe after the toxic “controlled release” — I’m here and witnessing creeks filled with dead frogs and fish. pic.twitter.com/UBh3zes59j— Jeremy Loffredo (@loffredojeremy) February 14, 2023

Chickens are dying in and around East Palestine Ohio after the train derailment and controlled burn. People and pets are NOT SAFE! pic.twitter.com/5rYuUfWbpG— Patriotic Homesteader (@2_Acre_Living) February 14, 2023

People have reported that their chickens, dogs, and horses were either sick or died. 

People in East Palestine and surrounding communities have reported various symptoms they can’t explain since the burn, according to News 5 Cleveland. 

Therese Vigliotti said she hasn’t felt right since the controlled release and burn after train cars derailed more than a week ago.

She sent us a picture of her tongue.

“I noticed my lips were numb, the soft palate of my mouth was numb, my tongue was burning and my throat was burning,” Vigliotti said.

We asked what her biggest concern was.

“That I’m going to get cancer and die,” Vigliotti said.

Vigliotti doesn’t live in East Palestine but rather 15 miles north of the derailment site in Poland, Ohio.

Jim does call the village home.

You can hear train horns from his front porch.

“It used to not bother me hearing, now it does,” Jim said.

He too is worried about what he is experiencing.

“I’ve had a migraine. I’ve been dizzy, all my mucus membranes irritated. I haven’t felt very well since then,” Jim said.

And on a long enough timeline. People exposed to vinyl chloride might have an increased risk of developing a rare form of liver cancer (hepatic angiosarcoma), liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma), brain and lung cancers, lymphoma, and leukemia. 

I GOT A DISTRIBUTION MAP pic.twitter.com/X7jzUIOmrb— UAE Exotic Falconry & Finance (@FalconryFinance) February 15, 2023

Aftermath of the Ohio: Woman details what she says is from #acidrain . I am no expert so if anyone knows about things like this feel free to comment. #ChemicalSpill #OhioChernobyl #NorfolkSouthernDerailment pic.twitter.com/IP7U8lM8HX— Wake Up Waverly (@WaverlyWakeUp) February 15, 2023

Protesters standing on a street corner in downtown East Palestine. Town hall meeting for residents at 7pm. @WTOV9 pic.twitter.com/uXExImoIBP— Chloë Mesogitis (@ChloeWTOV9) February 15, 2023

“There are a lot of people who are very, very scared,” said East Palestine resident Lynn Guy to Breitbart News’ Alana Mastrangelo, who is on the ground in Ohio. pic.twitter.com/ZjQH6vuyF5— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) February 15, 2023

“That’s all they are really concerned about. It’s not us, it’s moving the money”.

Family protesting how the toxic train derailment was handled in East Palestine, Ohio.

📸@lincolnmjay & @realmonsanto https://t.co/bq2xTFq0nVpic.twitter.com/TEiPD9KdRx— Rebel News USA (@RebelNews_USA) February 15, 2023

Citizen reporter on the ground in East Palestine, Ohio:

“It stinks out here… It smells really weird over here, for sure…. These are nice people, they don’t deserve to be nuked with toxic chemicals.” pic.twitter.com/Ib23XI91b3— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) February 15, 2023

And these toxic chemicals have also been identified in the Ohio river, which supplies more than 5 million people with drinking water, according to local news station WLWT. 

“It’s not just what was in the tanker cars. It’s what happens when they burn and combine. This may be the largest dioxin plume in world history. I know of no more serious release, ever,” explained Eric F Coppolino of Planet Waves FM. 

While vinyl chloride is a precursor chemical to making PVC, any time chlorinated compounds burn there will be dioxins created. And dioxin is a manufacturing byproduct of any manufacturing process involving chlorine, from “disinfectants” to the bleaching of paper. There was plenty of dioxin in those tanker cars before they caught fire.

This mess of 14 tanker cars (really, many more, but 14 had vinyl chloride) was then set on fire by the government, apparently to make it easier to clear the railroad tracks. This was the worst possible decision. It has turned many, many miles into what should be no-man’s land. But I have not heard of one single test for dioxin being done.

Must watch ! More on East Palestine, Ohio, toxic chemical burn may be the largest environmental disaster in U.S. history. pic.twitter.com/jcrBMdbp6y— VeBee🇺🇸✝️ (@VeBo1991) February 13, 2023

About 60 miles south, the city of Steubenville detected butyl acrylate in their water intake, the same toxic chemical found in East Palestine, according to local news WTRF. 

Recall the Biden administration and other federal officials were silent about the derailment for more than a week. This week, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg finally spoke about the incident.

And on Feb. 8 press conference in East Palestine, a NewsNation reporter covering DeWine was arrested. DeWine said this week that the reporter should “never have occurred in the first place.” The reporter was merely just trying to report the news. 

There’s been a massive lack of transparency since the derailment happened by the government and mainstream media. And we wonder why?

Look at an alleged aerial picture (posted on Reddit) overtop East Palestine during the controlled burn. Maybe this is why?

Meanwhile, environmentalist advocate Erin Brockovich called out the Biden administration to do more for residents of East Palestine:

“The Biden Administration needs to get more involved in this train derailment now. We are counting on you to break the chain of administration after administration to turn a blind eye.”

As for Norfolk Southern, they’re expected to rack up tens of millions of dollars in costs associated with cleanup and lawsuits. 

“I’ve had discussions with some people who live right near ground zero who are hesitant to come back.”

 “There are people with young children, and they don’t know what effects it’s going to have,” James Wise, a local attorney who filed a class-action lawsuit against the railroad on behalf of some residents, told Bloomberg. 

And you would never guess who is one of the largest shareholders of Norfolk Southern… It’s ESG-pusher BlackRock. 

Things that make you go, hmm… 

And by the way, East Palestine scrapped a town hall for tonight as the toxic chemicals are causing illness among residents, according to the Independent.  

end

My goodness: this disaster should have been avoided.  All rail cars have hot boxes installed to detect overheating. The signals are sent by radio frequency. The problem: Norfolk Southern had zero men on hand to read the data/

(Frightwaves)

Norfolk Southern Eliminated Key Maintenance Role In Derailment Region, Union Says

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 11:40 AM

By Rachel Premack of Freightwaves,

One union of rail workers has questioned declining maintenance standards following the Feb. 3 Norfolk Southern derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, which forced the evacuation of the 5,000-person town earlier this month. 

A device that can play a role in preventing derailments is the wayside hot-box detector. It uses infrared sensors to detect bearings, axles or other components of a rail car that are overheating, then uses radio signals to flag rail crews of any overheated components. 

The rail car that initiated the derailment had an overheated wheel bearing, according to a Tuesday report from the National Transportation Safety Board. The NTSB is still investigating the cause of the derailment and will publish a preliminary report in two weeks. 

Wayside hot-box detectors — also called “hot boxes” — are typically placed every 25 miles along a railroad, according to a Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) report. Their use has contributed to a 59% decrease in train accidents caused by axle- and bearing-related factors since 1990, according to a 2017 Association of American Railroads study.

Declining head counts have led to these mechanisms receiving less preventative maintenance, according to an official from the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen union. 

The FRA has no regulations requiring the use or maintenance of hot boxes. 

A hot box in East Palestine notified the crew moments before the train derailed, according to the NTSB’s report. 

It’s unclear if any hot box prior to East Palestine notified crews. A surveillance video shared on Facebook from an industrial facility in Salem, Ohio, about 20 miles from East Palestine, suggests the train’s axle was already on fire. 

Norfolk Southern did not respond to a request for comment, and the FRA declined to comment on the record.

From 5 ‘electronic leaders’ to zero in derailment region

Specialized signalmen called “electronic leaders” specialize in maintaining devices like hot boxes.

As recently as three years ago, Norfolk Southern employed five electronic leaders in the area of its rail network that includes East Palestine. Today, it employs zero, according to Christopher Hand, director of research at the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen.

The area in question is Eastern Region North – Division B, shown in red on the map. It runs east to west from Mansfield, Ohio, to Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and north to south from Morgantown, West Virginia, to Astabula, Ohio. It also includes rail track in Pittsburgh, as well as Youngstown, Ohio.Eastern Region North – Division B, shown in red, no longer employs electronic leaders, according to the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen. This role maintains devices that can prevent equipment failures and derailments. (Source: BRS)

Hand said electronic leaders know hot-box detectors “inside out.” But the position, which typically requires years of experience and higher pay, has become less common at railroads across the country. Electronic leaders also taught newer signalmen how to operate devices like the hot boxes.

After that position was eliminated in Norfolk Southern’s Division B, Hand said its responsibilities were likely transferred to a signal maintainer. Their main role is to keep up with government-mandated tests of equipment — and hot boxes aren’t under federal regulations.  

“Once they eliminated that position, it fell to the signal maintainers who had no knowledge, no training or very, very little training on these hot-box detectors,” Hand said in an interview with FreightWaves.

Across the rail industry, Hand said most signalmen are exclusively spending time on these government-mandated tests, rather than doing preventive maintenance, like cleaning and greasing. 

“There used to be something called ‘maintenance’ and it was routinely maintaining your apparatus — not just strictly going there when you have a regulated test,” Hand said.

It’s the responsibility of the railroad to maintain the track and locomotives by which railcars move. However, these derailed cars were possibly owned by a leasing company or the actual shipper of the chemicals inside the railcar.

Lobbying efforts to scale back maintenance saved railroads hundreds of millions

Federal regulators have rolled back other rail safety rules. 

For years, the federal government required railroads to conduct a type of brake test on rail cars that had not been operated for four or more hours. As of 2020, rail operators may wait up to 24 hours to conduct this test.

The Association of American Railroads, an industry association that includes Norfolk Southern, lobbied for this change starting in 2017, according to the Federal Register. The FRA estimated that changing this rule would save the rail industry nearly $600 million over a 10-year period.

The Association of American Railroads was also key in rolling back Obama-era legislation that would have required railroad companies to update their braking systems from a 19th-century design to an electronic one, as the Huffington Post reported on Wednesday.

end

We brought this to your attention last week, but it is worth repeating: 30 million Americans are about to lose COVID food stamp handouts

(zerohedge)

Welfare State Weakens… 30 Million Americans Are About To Lose ‘COVID’ Food Stamp Handouts

THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM

Enhanced benefits for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are set to expire at the end of February. The reduction in food stamps will impact more than 30 million Americans in 32 states — many of these folks will face a “hunger cliff.” 

Bloomberg reported that once the enhanced benefits expire, families will receive at least $95 less per month. Some families could have a reduction of up to $250 per month. 

Households with children will, on average, lose about $223 per month, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research and policy institute. 

“Right now, people are really up against it.”

“There’s not a lot of cushions to absorb this,” said Ellen Vollinger, SNAP director at the Food Research & Action Center, an anti-hunger advocacy group.

Bloomberg mapped out the 32 states where enhanced benefits are ending. 

Recall that SNAP costs soared to a record $119.5 billion in 2022, according to data released by the USDA. 

Food stamp costs have erupted from $60.3 billion in 2019, one year before the pandemic, to a record-setting $119.5 billion in 2022.

In 2019, the average monthly per-person benefit was $129.83 in 2019, according to the USDA. That increased by 78% to $230.88 in 2022.

Even more intriguing is that the number of participants increased from 35.7 million in 2019 to 41.2 million in 2022…

And the increasing number of SNAP participants comes at a time when the Biden administration declared the best jobs market ever. 

What’s on the chopping block is part of the Biden administration’s welfare state. And many of these people who will see a reduction in benefits starting next month will have to partially fend for themselves in the worst inflation storms in a generation. Meanwhile, many of these folks have limited to no personal savings, maxed-out credit cards, and no safety nets. 

Vollinger has previously described the expiration of enhanced SNAP benefits as a “hunger cliff” and described the number of states set to cut food stamps as “stunning.” 

Food insecurity is set to rise even more. 

Perhaps the free ride is over for some SNAP recipients who might have to re-enter the labor market and find a job to cover expenses since the welfare state won’t be as generous as it once was. More people searching for work might raise the labor force participation rate and, in return, increase the unemployment rate — something the Federal Reserve desperately needs to cool off the red-hot jobs market. 

 3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//

USA COVID//

SWAMP STORIES

THE KING REPORT

 The King Report February 16, 2023 Issue 6050Independent View of the NewsJanuary Retail Sales (Not adjusted for inflation) +3.0% m/m, +2% exp; Dec revised to -0.4% from -0.7%
January Retail Sales ex-Autos 2.3% m/m, 0.9% expected
January Retail Sales ex-Autos & Gas 2.6% m/m, 0.9% consensus
 
@GRDecter: +17.5% dept stores, +7.2% restaurants, bars, +5.9% cars, parts, +4.4% furniture
These are month over month.  All 13 retail categories rose last month. This is the first time since COVID.
(Retail Sales Table 2 at link) https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1625870867933659137
   These numbers are NOT adjusted for inflation… What’s really happening is Americans are having to take on more credit card debt to afford the same things because of INFLATION.  Credit card debt and credit card interest rates are at RECORD high.
 
@SJosephBurns: 7.2% gain in restaurant retail sales in January.  The Consumer Price Index for Food Away from Home increased 8.2% between January 2022 and January 2023, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That’s not a sales increase, that’s just inflation.
 
New Cars Are Only for the Rich Now as Automakers Rake in Profits
With pandemic-era chip shortages fading, manufacturers are keeping inventories low — and prices high. The shift to EVs will make things worse… The average monthly payment for a new car has soared to a record $777, nearly doubling from late 2019, according to Kelley Blue Book owner Cox Automotive. That’s almost a sixth of the median after-tax income for US households. Even used models have climbed to $544 a month on average… For a decade, the average new-car payment in the U.S. bumped along at roughly $400 a month. That’s about as much as the typical American household can shell out and still meet other major expenses, said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox. But it crossed that mark in November 2019 and has been soaring ever since…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-14/new-car-prices-are-so-high-only-rich-americans-can-afford-them
 
The Inflation Boogeyman Now Hides in Services
It is going to be a long and complicated path before price gains moderate and the latest US print shows why. Also, a breakfast staple is becoming more expensive… The Fed will only win the battle with services inflation when it succeeds in bringing wage settlements down, because inflation in services, excluding shelter, tends to correlate very strongly with percentage wage increases… https://t.co/PeNKNI3TQ2
 
@MichaelMOTTCM: December Fed Funds Futures are now trading at 5.15%. Forget rate cuts; the story will shift to how much higher rates will have to go.  The answer may be much higher.
https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1625852996956602368
 
MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended on February 10: -7.7%, prior +7.4%
 
Unseasonably warm January weather generated a 9.9% decline in utility production.  Ergo, January Industrial Production was unchanged; 0.5% was expected; Dec revised to -1.0% from 0.7%; Manufacturing Production rose 1.0%; 0.8% was consensus; Dec revised to -1.8% from -1.3%; Capacity Utilization: 78.3%, 79.1% expected; Dec revised to 78.4% from 78.8%.  Once again, economic data has been revised negatively under Biden!
 
The NAHB Housing Index of February jumped to 42 from 35 (31 in Dec); 37 was consensus.  Expectations for future single-home sales soared to 48 from 37.
 
ESHs traded moderately lower when the Nikkei opened.  They progressively declined until they developed a bottom 13 minutes after Europe opened at 3 ET.  The rally ended at 4:05 ET: ESHs and stocks then traded sideways until ESHs spiked higher when the US bond market opened at 7 ET.  ESHs then sank 24 handles by 8:28 ET.  On the release of the US retail sales data, ESHs spiked 9 handles higher in 12 minutes.  Traders are so bullish and eager to buy stuff that they react instantly to economic releases even when they are negative for financial assets!
 
Sellers then entered the arena.  ESHs gyrated wildly in 22-handle range until they rallied for the European close.  During the gyrations, ESHs hit a bottom of 4113.00 at 10:09 ET.
 
ESHs hit a daily high of 4146.50 at 11:47 ET.  They then retreated 20 handles by 12:30 ET.  Traders want to get long for the expected upward manipulation for the 14:15 ET VIX Fix.  ESHs zoomed to new highs.  At the 14:15 ET VIX Fix, ESHs hit 4154.00.  ESHs then rolled over.  The ensuing decline ended at 15:00 ET.  It was time for the last-your manipulation.  The rally ended at 15:08 ET.  Another rally attempt began at 15:30 ET.  ESHs and stocks soared into the close- Weird Wednesday appeared!
 
Numerous articles appeared during the early afternoon rally that traders were bullish on the economic strength displayed in January retail sales.  This is nonsense, another instance of uninformed financial reporters proffering a fundamental rationalization for a trading scheme.
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Once again, ESHs and stocks rallied after a down NYSE open, for the VIX Fix, and the last hour
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds decline sharply while the dollar soared
Gasoline rallied while precious and industrial metals declined
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What will it take to disabuse traders of behavior that was inculcated over many years?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4133.23
Previous session High/Low: 4148.11; 4103.98
 
Unfathomably, Team Biden is crafting excuses for China re: its spy balloon!  10% for The Big Guy!
 
US believes Chinese spy balloon was blown off course after launch from Hainan Island: report
However, once it crossed the US border with Canada, US officials say, Beijing took advantage of the opportunity to gather intelligence and directed the craft to loiter over Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, which houses one-third of the country’s land-based nuclear missile arsenal…
https://nypost.com/2023/02/15/us-believes-chinese-spy-balloon-was-blown-off-course-after-launch-from-hainan-island/
 
NYT: Chinese officials told U.S. officials that the controllers of the “spy balloon” were working to speed it out of American airspace after it was carried off course. The balloon was originally aimed at Guam/Hawaii… It is believed that the self-destruct mechanism wasn’t utilized so collateral damage could be avoided and so the U.S. couldn’t acquire the surveillance equipment…
 
@CBSEveningNews: CBS News has learned that U.S. intelligence watched the Chinese spy balloon as it lifted off near China’s south coast, meaning the U.S. military had been tracking it for nearly a week before it entered U.S. airspace. (China has gotten a fabulous return on 10% for The Big Guy!)
https://t.co/MbQgBNeRwn
 
China beating US in trade war, nations on ‘brink of conflict,’ Ray Dalio says https://trib.al/abWWcEi
 
FBI searched University of Delaware for classified documents: Report
The FBI has twice searched the University of Delaware in connection with the federal investigation into President Joe Biden’s handling of classified materials, a “source familiar with the investigation” told CNN… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/fbi-searched-university-delaware-classified-documents-report
 
GOP Rep @Jim_Jordan: We just subpoenaed Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, and Apple regarding Big Tech’s reported collusion with the federal government.  Step one towards accountability.
 
Russian-linked malware was close to putting U.S. electric, gas facilities ‘offline’ last year
The malware was targeted at around a dozen U.S. facilities in the weeks after the invasion of Ukraine.
   Robert M. Lee, the founder and CEO of Dragos, which helps companies respond to cyberattacks, said hackers with a group Dragos calls “Chernovite” were using a malicious software to try to take down “around a dozen” U.S. electric and liquid natural gas sites…
   Lee declined to offer details on what prevented the attack from succeeding, but said it was halted by a coalition of U.S. government and cyber industry groups…
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/14/russia-malware-electric-gas-facilities-00082675
 
@TuckerCarlson: Airlines are dramatically lower hiring standards for pilots in the name of equity. At some point, many people are going to die because of this.
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1625672140912488450
 
Why was East Palestine ‘bomb train’ not stopped when fire broke out? Video shows flames from faulty bearing licking wheels 20 MILES before it derailed – as pressure grows to explain if sensors were working – Norfolk Southern said 20 of the more than 100 cars were classified as carrying hazardous material… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11754485/Why-East-Palestine-bomb-train-not-stopped-fire-broke-out.html
 
@AmFirebrand: Tucker says of Mayor Pete: “You’re completely incompetent. There’s never been a Cabinet Secretary this flamboyantly incompetent and so obviously uncaring. Almost to the point of evil, if we’re being honest.”  https://twitter.com/AmFirebrand/status/1625668264431943682
 
@AmFirebrand: Tucker on the train derailment in Ohio: “Imagine this happened in Washington D.C. If this had affected the rich or the favored poor, it would be the lede of every news channel in the world. But it happened to the poor town of East Palestine, whose people are forgotten.”
https://twitter.com/AmFirebrand/status/1625667559361060864
 
Residents Near East Palestine Tell Tucker Carlson They Were Told to Sign a Waiver to Promise to Not Sue Agencies Monitoring the Air Near Their Property  https://t.co/zDvqDvREwX
 
This is one of the greatest federal government scandals of all time
Many hundreds of thousands of federal employees have been getting a full-time paycheck from Uncle Sam (meaning from all of us) without showing up for work for three years now. They don’t call it Club Fed for nothing… https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/this-one-greatest-federal-government-scandals-all-time
 
Today – The manipulation for the February VIX Fix occurred despite the inflationary January Retail Sales data.  As we noted, traders would be bullish for the Weird Wednesday/VIX Fix manipulation abetted by the absence of Fed speakers.  Today is different.
 
Fed hawks, Mester and Bullard will speak.  Operators will save their powder for tomorrow’s February expiration.  Retail jamokes and day traders remain rabidly bullish and will play the 0DTE game.
 
On February 15, 2022, the S&P 500 Index closed at 4471.07.  It closed yesterday at 4147.60.  450bps of Fed rate hikes produced only a 7% decline in the S&P 500 Index.  The last time Fed Funds were 4.75%, October 30, 2007, the S&P 500 Index closed at 1531.02.
 
ESHs are +8.50 at 20:50 ET because traders are extremely bullish – and the Feb expiry is nigh. 
 
Expected economic data: Jan PPI 0.4% m/m & 5.4% y/y; Core PPI 0.3% m/m & 4.9% y/y; Jan Housing Starts -2.0%, Permits +1.0%; Initial Jobless Claims 200k, Continuing Claims 1.689m; Feb Phil Fed Business Outlook -7.5; Feb NY Fed Services Business Activity -17.0; Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 8:45 ET, St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard 13:30 ET, Fed Gov Cook 16:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3973; 100-day MA: 3893; 150-day MA: 3942; 200-day MA: 3944
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,630; 100-day MA: 32,697; 150-day MA: 32,526; 200-day MA: 32,340
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3820.10 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4037.43 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4101.13 triggers a sell signal
 
Biden refers to Maryland’s first Black governor as “boy” in speech
“You got a hell of a new governor in Wes Moore. He’s the real deal and the boy looks like he can still play,” the 80-year-old Mr. Biden said… (Imagine the outrage a Republican said this!)
   In 2008, then-Rep. Geoff Davis, Kentucky Republican, apologized for using the word “boy” to describe presidential candidate Barack Obama at a fundraiser. “I’m gonna tell you something. That boy’s finger does not need to be on the button,” Mr. Davis said at the time…
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/feb/15/joe-biden-refers-marylands-first-black-governor-bo/
 
Senate Intel Chair Warner: ‘Some damage done’ by letting China spy balloon ‘float’ across country
“I think there was some damage done by allowing it to float across the whole country,” said Warner, a Virginia Democrat, referring to the Chinese spy balloon. But “I don’t think there was anything unique about the data that was being collected.”…
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/senate-intel-chair-there-was-some-damage-done-letting-china-spy-balloon-float
 
Biden scorched for silence on downed flying objects: ‘He’s not in command’ https://t.co/RNqWBbHk0O
 
Karine Jean-Pierre calls Biden ‘best communicator’ in White House https://t.co/d4uIj2KCQW
 
When there is no penalty for lying or uttering abjectly stupid Schiff…
 
Despite court docs, James Biden insists he didn’t broker secret $140M Saudi deal
The court papers, which surfaced Tuesday, stated that the now-73-year-old told a private investigator in July 2017 that he was often picked to attend meetings with Riyadh on behalf of Philadelphia-based Hill International because “the name didn’t hurt.”  “Mr Biden never negotiated with the Saudi Government on behalf of Hill or any other entity,” a rep for James Biden told The Post in a statement…
   Thomas Sullivan, a former Treasury Department official… said in his sworn statement, James Biden recalled attending a February 2012 meeting with Saudi officials “because of his position and relationship” with his older brother — who at the time was Barack Obama’s vice president…
   Lankford & Reed partner Thomas Lankford alleged in a sworn statement that Hill International CEO Irvin Richter had told him that he’d retained James Biden because the Saudis “would not dare stiff the brother of the Vice-President who would be instrumental to the deal.”…
https://nypost.com/2023/02/15/bidens-brother-denies-being-hired-to-broker-secret-140m-saudi-deal/
 
@JonathanTurley: Bill Gates is calling for the use Artificial Intelligence to combat “political polarization” on the Internet. It turns out the problem on the Internet are those pesky humans “who want to believe … things” that they should not. Enter our new AI Overlords
 
Free Speech Is Futile: Bill Gates Goes Full Borg on AI Censorship
President Biden joined in these calls for censorship, often sounding like a censor-in-chief, denouncing social media companies for “killing people” by not blocking enough. Recently, he expressed doubt that the public can “know the truth” without such censorship by “editors” in Big Tech…
    Currently, Microsoft, the company Gates founded, uses NewsGuard, a self-described arbiter of misinformation, which rates sites and has been widely criticized for targeting conservative media… a ramped-up version of ChatGPT, the popular AI service that Microsoft just incorporated into its Bing search engine… censors “offensive” content and bars certain viewpoints because it was told to do so.
https://jonathanturley.org/2023/02/15/free-speech-is-futile-gates-goes-full-borg-on-ai-censorship/
 
Perhaps, the relentless criticism on social media of Gates’ hypocrisy on climate change and his slovenly appearance while advocating health issues has upset Billy.
 
@DrEliDavid: In 1847, Hungarian physician Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis claimed hand washing by surgeons significantly reduces infections in patients. This went against the “settled science”. This is how the “medical experts” reacted:  https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1625603010003931138
 
Ex-SC Governor and Trump’s UN Ambassador Nikki Haley officially announced a 2024 bid for POTUS.
“Take it from me, the first minority female governor in history, America is not a racist country.”
 
@townhallcom: NIKKI HALEY: “As I set out on this new journey, I will simply say this. May the best woman win…All kidding aside, this is not about identity politics, I don’t believe in that!”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1625906287438442522
 
Haley, channeling Bill Clinton, plays the identity politics card while criticizing the practice.
 
@KassyDillon: Nikki Haley is calling for mental competency tests for politicians over 75 years old in her announcement speech. (Playing the Age Card against Joe and DJT!)
 
@ColumbiaBugle: Nikki Haley’s pitch to be President is basically: “I’m a woman, I’m not white and my parents were immigrants, vote for me!”… Nikki Haley couldn’t even crack 2k live viewers for her announcement speech…  https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1625906760023257123
 
Trump campaign rips Nikki Haley for prior Hillary Clinton praise, 2024 flip-flopping https://trib.al/4uFggKZ
 
Trump on Haley: “She’s polling at 1%, not a bad start11!”
 
Trump said that his campaign would employ massive ballot harvesting where it is legal.
 
@JackPosobiec: The best part of Trump embracing ballot harvesting is it will cause reactionary responses from a lot of libs and make them call for ending it
 
FBI Director Wray often commutes between DC and Manassas, Virginia, on a $60 million Gulfstream jet in order to avoid traffic, whistleblower says. https://t.co/hOkBIHR2wc
 
@Wirepoints: Not a single student can do math at grade level in 53 Illinois schools. For reading, it’s 30 schools. Not 1 single student. Education data from @ISBEnews.  It’s yet another indictment of the state’s educational system.  https://twitter.com/Wirepoints/status/1625475376037171200

GREG HUNTER REPORT//

I am repeating this important interview in case you missed it yesterday

Greg Hunter INTERVIEWING 

I will see you tomorrow, 

Harvey

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