FEB 17/2023//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $1.35 TO $1840.70//SILVER UP 2 CENTS TO $21.71//PLATINUM IS DOWN $7.85 TO $921.85//PALLADIUM IS DOWN $29.20 TO $1502.65//MUST READS: ALASDAIR MACLEOD ON HOW GOLD WILL BECOME THE NEW MONEY//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//DR PANDA/VACCINE IMPACT/SLAY NEWS//HOW THE MASS MEDIA IS HIDING HUGE INCREASES OF MYOCARDITIS AND DEATHS//USA LEADING INDICATORS FALLS FOR THE 10TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH//UPDATES OF THE EAST PALESTINE DISASTER AND UPDATES FROM THE UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
323 C HSBC 1 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 1 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 143 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 19 661 C JP MORGAN 21 19 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 9 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 13 800 C MAREX SPEC 6 880 C CITIGROUP 2 880 H CITIGROUP 94
TOTAL: 164 164 MONTH TO DATE: 14,61
JPMORGAN STOPPED 19/164
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT: 164 NOTICES FOR 164,000 OZ or 0.510 TONNES
total notices so far: 14,617 contracts for 1,461700 oz (45.465 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 26 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 130,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month :848 for 4,240,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////
INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 2 CENTS
AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 484.819. MILLION OZ (CORRECTED)
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3261 CONTRACTS TO 127,385 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.08 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE ARE NOW COMING CLOSER TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 125,000 OI CONTRACTS. FOR THE TWO MONTHS, OUR BANKERS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING NET SHORT AND THUS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.08). BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING CONSIDERABLE SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1934 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (0.0 MILLION OZ. ) AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.775 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1327 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 115,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP OZ// NEW TOTALS STANDING = 4.34 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 6.115 MILLION OZ//// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -33
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 days, total 11,923 contracts: OR 59.615 MILLION OZ . (917 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 59.615 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 59.615/ MILLION OZ/INITIAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3261 DESPITE OUR $0.08 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1327 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 0.54 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 115,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP= NEW STANDING: 4.34 MILLION OZ + 1.775 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 6.115 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED LOSS OF 1901OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 26 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 130,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 34 CONTRACTS TO 422,997 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 510 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 34 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $6.80 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 11,900 OZ //NEW STANDING: 46.936 TONNES//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $6.80 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2754 OI CONTRACTS (8.566 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2720 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 423,507
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2754 CONTRACTS WITH 34CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2720 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2754 CONTRACTS OR 8.566 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2720 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE TINY SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (34) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2754 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :
35,584 CONTRACTS OR 3,558,400 OZ OR 110.68 TONNES 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2737 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 110.68 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 110.68/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 110.68 TONNES/INITIAL (HEADING FOR ANOTHER STRONG ISSUANCE)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3261 CONTRACTS OI TO 127,385 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 1327 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 1327 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1327 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 3261 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1327 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC LOSS OF 1934 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9.67MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.08 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 25.01 PTS OR 0.77% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 267.86 PTS OR 1.28% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 183.31 PTS OR 0.66% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.90% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8782 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8841// /Oil DOWN TO 76,57 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 82.60 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 34 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 422,997 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.80
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2720 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2720 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2720 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2754 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2720LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A TINY SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 34 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED (DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $6.80). WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (46.908)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 46.908 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $6.80) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2754 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 8.566 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.219 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 11,000 OZ OR 0,3421 TONNES//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 46.936 tonnes … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR RISE IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.80.
WE HAD- 510 CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES (REMOVED) TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2754 CONTRACTS OR 275400 OZ OR 8.566 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 161,482// poor//
final gold volumes/yesterday 174,625/// poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //FEB 17//
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
14,617 notices 1,461,700 45.465TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: NIL oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of HSBCL 80,377.500 oz (2500 kilobars
total withdrawals: 80,377.500 oz
in tonnes: 2,5 tonnes
Adjustments; 1
dealer to customer/
HSBC: 13,235.966 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 628 contracts having lost 150 contracts. We had 260 notices
filed on Tuesday so we gained a huge 110 contracts or an additional 11,000 oz will stand for metal at the comex
March gained 31 contracts to stand at 1826.
April lost 1243 contracts down to 338,234
We had 164 notice(s) filed today for 16,400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 21 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 164 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dea19 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14,617 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEBRUARY 628 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 164 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,508,100 OZ OR 46.908 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of February.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:
No of notices filed so far (14,617 x 100 oz+ 628 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (164)x 100 oz} which equals 1,508,100 oz standing OR 46.908 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 46.908TONNES. SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 848 x 5,000 oz = 4,240,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(48) and the number of notices served upon today 26 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month:848 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB 46 – number of notices served upon today (26) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 4.34 million oz + PREVIOUS 1.775 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 6.115 MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES
FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES
FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 921.08 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 484.819 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
end
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
In yesterday’s issue, I addressed the biggest and most complex topic on the geopolitical landscape today — China.
But today I’m discussing what is by far the most alarming topic on the geopolitical landscape today. That’s the war in Ukraine and the dangers of escalation.
I’ve written extensively about two facets of the war in Ukraine that you don’t hear from legacy media in the United States or U.K.
The first is that Russia is actually winning the war.
U.S. outlets such as The New York Times (a channel for the State Department) and The Washington Post (a channel for the CIA) report endlessly about how Russian plans have failed, about how incompetent they are about how the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have pushed back Russians in the Donbass, and how NATO weapons such as U.S. Abrams tanks, U.K. Challenger tanks and German Leopard tanks will turn the tide against Russia soon.
This is all nonsense. None of it is true.
Reality Check
First off, the Ukrainian advances that took place in late summer were against lightly defended positions that the Russians quickly conceded to conserve forces. The Russians were willing to give up the land so that they wouldn’t lose valuable men and materiel.
The Russians withdrew to more defensible positions and have been badly mauling Ukrainian attacking forces ever since. Ukraine has wasted incredibly large amounts of men and equipment in these futile and ill-advised attacks.
In all, credible reports indicate that AFU casualties are nearing 500,000 and are increasing at an unsustainable rate. On the other hand, reports of 100,000 Russian dead are almost certainly wild exaggerations put out by Ukraine. The BBC attempted to verify these numbers and could only find about 20,000 confirmed Russian dead based on extensive searches on funeral notices, public records, etc.
Send in the Tanks — Eventually!
What about the tanks NATO is supposedly sending? Well, the tanks have not been delivered yet and most won’t be for months or longer. Our own M1 Abrams tanks might not even arrive for a year or more.
We actually have to custom build these tanks so that they don’t have the special armor and other advanced systems that our own M1s have. The Pentagon doesn’t want them falling into Russian hands if they’re destroyed or captured. Besides, we’re only sending 31 tanks anyway.
When the NATO tanks do arrive, they’ll likely quickly be destroyed by Russian artillery, anti-tank weapons and precision missiles. They’re good tanks, but far from invincible. For decades, the Russians have been developing powerful weapons specifically designed to destroy these NATO tank models. The Russians aren’t particularly worried about them.
Aside from that, tanks rely on effective air cover for protection, which Ukraine lacks. They’ll be sitting ducks on the battlefield. It doesn’t really make sense to send tanks to Ukraine unless you send combat aircraft to give them cover (more on that below).
Russia’s Winning on the Battlefield
Meanwhile, Russian forces have nearly encircled the city of Bakhmut, which is a major transportation and logistics hub, with several key roads and rail lines passing through it. It’ll probably fall to the Russians within weeks.
Losing Bakhmut will be a major blow to Ukraine, despite claims in the western media that it really isn’t very important. Ukraine’s entire 800-mile defensive line would probably begin to crumble, and they don’t have heavily fortified positions to fall back on. Ukrainian troops, while brave and competent soldiers, are exhausted and running out of supplies as it is.
On top of that, it appears likely that Russia is preparing a devastating offensive with massive amounts of men, tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, helicopters, drones and fixed-wing aircraft.
This Russian army is not the same army that invaded Ukraine a year ago. It’s much better trained, led and equipped. It’s learned from the mistakes it made during its initial invasion last February. Ukraine shouldn’t expect them to repeat those mistakes.
Does all this mean I’m cheering on a Russian victory in Ukraine? No, I’m just observing the facts on the ground and consolidating them to perform an objective analysis.
That analysis leads me to believe that Russia will win the war militarily. Western military assistance may prolong the fighting but won’t affect the ultimate outcome. It’ll just delay the inevitable and get a lot more people needlessly killed.
The Much Greater Risk
The second facet of this war not reported in the media, or at least downplayed, is the growing risk of nuclear war.
This risk increases with every escalatory step by both sides. The U.S. is the leader in reckless escalation by supplying long-range artillery, Patriot anti-missile batteries, intelligence, surveillance, and now the tanks. Russia responds at each step.
There’s a number of steps before the two sides arrive at the nuclear level, but neither shows a willingness to step back.
By the way, Russia has every legal right to attack those NATO countries supplying arms to Ukraine. By supplying arms to a party to the conflict, they’ve given up their neutrality and have become, in effect, combatants. Russia hasn’t done this because it doesn’t want to bring NATO directly into the fight. But legally, it can.
Gimme, Gimme, Gimme
Ukraine’s demands on the U.S., UK and the rest of NATO for advanced weapons to fight Russians know no limits. The West began by supplying Ukraine with cash, intelligence and anti-tank weapons such as the Javelin missile. Soon we were supplying long-range artillery, drones, and more cash.
As Russian advances continued, Zelensky demanded and got Patriot anti-missile batteries that can destroy incoming Russian missiles. The U.S. artillery was aimed at Russian Crimea. Several drones struck inside Russia at sensitive air bases with nuclear weapons nearby.
The next demand for more weapons involved advanced tanks that are in the process of being supplied by the U.S., UK, Germany, and Poland. In the latest move, that comes as no surprise, Ukraine is now demanding F-16 fighter jets from the U.S., one of the most advanced aircraft in the world.
But Russia has the most sophisticated air defense system in the world and is very capable of shooting down F-16s in large numbers.
Biden has denied Zelensky’s request so far, but he previously ruled out sending tanks before finally giving in. The same thing will probably happen with the planes. But they won’t turn the tide against Russia.
Once these advanced systems show they can’t help, what’s the Ukrainian’s next demand? Russia can escalate just as quickly and lethally as the U.S.
This entire scenario is a long slow march toward nuclear war or the complete disintegration of Ukraine.
Is Anyone Really Prepared for This?
The U.S. won’t end the weapons deliveries because Joe Biden is afraid of losing face and his closest advisors such as Victoria Nuland have an irrational hatred for Russia and are total warmongers.
Now, we can add a new danger, resulting from desperation. This is the fact that the U.S. itself may be the biggest loser in the war.
As Ukraine disappears under a massive Russian onslaught, the U.S. will grow increasingly desperate. Its credibility is on the line after committing so much money, materiel and moral weight to Ukraine’s defense.
The Biden administration has essentially turned the war in Ukraine into an existential crisis for the U.S. and NATO, when it never should have been. Ukraine has never been a vital U.S. interest. But the war is existential for Russia, and won’t give up.
Is the U.S. just going to throw up its hands and concede Russian victory? NATO may actually disintegrate in the face of such spectacular failure. So, we’ll probably double down.
Maybe a desperate Biden orders troops into western Ukraine as a buffer against a complete Russian takeover of the country. You can imagine what could go wrong. That situation may quickly devolve into a direct war between the U.S. and Russia rather than the proxy war that it is now.
The American people and investors in particular are not prepared for any of this. They should be. It’s becoming increasingly likely.
END
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
This is a must read: Gold’s return as true money
(Alasdair Macleod)
Alasdair Macleod: Gold’s return as money
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-02-16 12:42Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod GoldMoney. Toronto Thursday, February 16, 2023
The consequences of Russia and her Asian allies embracing gold backing for their currencies are poorly understood in western capital markets. This move could lead to the destruction of the global fiat currency system.
According to evidence which is widely ignored in Western capital markets, a move by Russia to put a new trade settlement currency and possibly the rouble as well onto a new gold standard is becoming a certainty. As this is a weapon of mass fiat currency destruction, the timing is probably bound up in on-the-ground military considerations, which are already showing signs of escalating in eastern Ukraine.
As well as using gold to undermine the western currency system, a return to a credible gold standard has significant advantages for Russia and for her allies in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS+, and all their commodity suppliers beyond Asia. At the same time, it would destroy the West’s fiat currencies and financial system.
This article explains how one part of the global economy can thrive while the other collapses. …
In January, the gold price was around $1960. India imports 76% less gold waiting for the price to fall.
This month they are purchasing huge amounts of gold and oil .
(Reuters/GATA)
India’s January gold imports plunge 76% to 32-month low
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-02-16 19:27Section: Daily Dispatches
By Rajendra Jadhaw Reuters Thursday, January 16, 2023
MUMBAI — India’s January gold imports plunged 76% from a year earlier to a 32-month low on subdued demand after domestic prices rallied to record highs and as jewellers postponed purchases, hoping for a reduction in import duty, a government source said.
Lower imports by the world’s second-biggest bullion consumer could weigh on benchmark gold prices but the fall may help in bringing down India’s trade deficit and support the ailing rupee.
The country imported 11 tonnes of gold in January, compared with 45 tonnes a year earlier, the source said on condition of anonymity, as he is not authorised to speak to the media. …
Now all central banks are searching for physical gold, even Burkina Faso who bought .2194 tonnes of gold
(Reuters)
From an African hell hole, Reuters suggests that gold is the ultimate money
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-02-16 19:44Section: Daily Dispatches
Burkina Faso Buys 200 kg of Gold from Endeavour’s Mana Mine
From Reuters Thursday, February 16, 2023
OUAGADOUGOU, Burkina Faso — Endeavour Mining has sold kilograms (7054.79 oz) of gold from its Mana mine in Burkina Faso to the West African country’s government, the company told Reuters on Wednesday.
The UK-headquartered multinational is the biggest gold miner in Burkina Faso, which is funding a battle against a rampant jihadist insurgency that spurred two military coups last year.
Gold is a universal means of purchasing foreign currency to shore up reserves.
Burkina Faso’s energy and mines ministry issued a statement on Tuesday saying it had “commandeered” 200 kilograms of gold from the Mana mine for “public necessity.”
The company will be compensated for its value, the statement added without providing further detail. …
Premiums in Shanghai are now $35.00 over London gold price.
(courtesy Market Watch)
China Gold Premiums Jump as Fear of the Fed Whacks Dollar Price
Friday, 2/17/2023 14:37
GOLD PRICES hit new 2023 lows Friday, attracting strong demand in No.1 consumer nation China, as silver fell to the cheapest since end-November against a rising US Dollar.
Global stock markets and fixed-income bond prices also fell amid resurgent fears of steeper Federal Reserve interest rate hikes ahead.
Down 2.5% and 4.2% for the week respectively at this morning’s lows of $1820 and $21.20 per ounce, gold and silver prices then rallied slightly as global stock markets also trimmed their losses but left the MSCI World Index unchanged from last Friday’s finish.
Commodities and energy prices sank further, knocking almost 5% off crude oil from this time last week and more than 10% from this time last year, eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Erasing all of 2023’s earlier 7% rise in Dollar terms, gold bullion today found strong interest on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, with the city’s premium over comparable London quotes rising near $35 per ounce, the highest incentive for new imports into gold’s No.1 consumer nation in more than 3 months.
Chart of Shanghai gold premium (US$/oz) vs. gold price in Yuan. Source: BullionVault
That means Shanghai gold has averaged more than $19 per ounce above London quotes so far in 2023, almost 4 times last year’s $5 average across the 3 weeks prior and 3 weeks following the heavy gold-buying festival of Lunar New Year holidays – now the world’s heaviest consumer gold-buying event, ahead of Diwali in India.
In 2021 the Shanghai gold premium averaged barely $3 per ounce to this point in February, down from $4 in 2020 and $10 in 2019 on data compiled by BullionVault.
Data from the mining-industry’s World Gold Council says 2023 has so far seen the strongest Shanghai gold premium since 2011.
“We will we stay the course until our job is done,” New York Fed president John Williams said in a speech to bankers on Tuesday, echoing chairman Jerome Powell’s own comments on rates needing to stay ‘higher for longer’ to defeat inflation and avoid a replay of the late-1970s’ rebound under his predecessor Arthur Burns.
Following stronger-than-expected US inflation and economic data, non-voting Fed member James Bullard of the US central bank’s St.Louis branch yesterday said he’s open to a half-point hike at the March meeting, backing Wednesday’s comments from voting member Loretta Mester of the Cleveland Fed over what she felt was a “compelling” case for that kind of hike at this month’s vote.
After the Fed raised by only 1/4-point on 1 February, betting on a half-point hike has now jumped to 1-in-5 among interest-rate speculators, according to the CME derivative exchange’s FedWatch tool, its highest in 5 weeks.
With leading ‘dove’ Lael Brainard leaving the Fed to become top economic advisor to President Biden in the White House, “[this] raises the risk of a recession,” the Wall Street Journal quotes one forecaster, “because it could lead the central bank to raise rates more aggressively this spring.”
The ‘recession warning’ of on inverted yield curve continued on Friday, with the yield on both 6- and 12-month Treasury debt rising above 5.0% per annum while 10-year yields reached only 3.88%, signalling market expectations that interest rates will have to fall sometime in late 2023 or early 2024.
China meantime this week saw mass protests in at least 2 major cities, with thousands of elderly demonstrators facing lines of police while chanting “down with the reactionary government” and singing Communist anthem ‘The Internationale’ to oppose cuts to health-insurance benefits imposed by cash-strapped local authorities.
The protests follow the widespread and sometimes violent anti-Zero Covid unrest which led Beijing to abandon the policy this New Year.
Newly-built houses in 56 of China’s 70 largest cities cost less in January than in the same month last year, new figures from the Communist regime’s official NBS data agency said Thursday, and the price of existing homes prices fell in all but five.
China’s real-estate downturn has led some banks to offer mortgages to elderly borrowers aged 70 and above, CNN reports, quoting analyst Yan Yuejin at property services firm E-House China Holdings.
“Basically, it’s a policy tool to stimulate housing demand,” he says of these so-called “relay loans”, which pass the debt onto the home buyer’s children when the borrower dies.
Judge angry at Sam for his use of electronic devices so he has threatened to revoke his bail
(zerohedge)
Judge Overseeing Bankman-Fried Fraud Trial Threatens To Revoke Bail, Throw SBF In Prison Over VPN Use
THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 04:40 PM
Don’t expect to see any more random, headscratching tweet from SBF ever again.
On Thursday, the federal judge overseeing Sam Bankman-Fried’s fraud trial threatened to revoke the FTX co-founder’s $250 million bail package and throw him in prison if severe restrictions weren’t placed on his use of electronic devices and apps.
As Bloomberg reports, US District Judge Lewis Kaplan said at a Thursday hearing on his bail conditions in downtown Manhattan that he didn’t think a government proposal that would limit Bankman-Fried to one monitored cell phone and laptop and restrict his use of Zoom to communicating with counsel was sufficient.
The hearing follows concern over Bankman-Fried’s reported use of encrypted messaging app Signal to contact FTX’s US general counsel, a potential witness in the case, and his use of virtual private networks. Both technologies could allow him to shield his communications from the government.
Bankman-Fried’s lawyer, Mark Cohen, who has argued his client’s use of apps and VPNs was “innocent” called the government proposal “Draconian” on Thursday, prompting a fiery response from the judge.
“It isn’t the government who contacted the witness,” Kaplan admonished Cohen. The judge added that, though the hearing wasn’t over bail revocation, “it could get there eventually.”
Kaplan also expressed skepticism about Bankman-Fried’s laughable claim that he used a VPN to watch football, including the Superbowl, while out on bail at his parents’ house in Palo Alto, California.
“So what he was doing was sitting in California in the United States using the VPN to create the impression that he was going to use this international subscription from outside the US,” the judge suggested. Cohen responded that he had wished he had bought his client a television from Best Buy because “there isn’t a television in the house.”
Also, the judge appears to share our sense of humor: two days ago we suggested that billionaire SBF was using VPNs to download bittorents movies.
Cohen said Bankman-Fried understood what was at stake and that he was “on trial for his life” and added “There is no margin for error,” even though SBF has repeatedly and clearly showed he believes his Democratic donations and political connections give him a mile-wide margin for not only error but to do whatever he wants. “If there is any violation of whatever order the court fashions, we’ll deal with an entirely different proceeding.”
Kaplan gave the parties until the end of next week to submit proposals for how to modify the bail package, suggesting that the defense hire a consultant who can advise the judge on how to handle the issues.
end
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8782
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8841
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 25.01 PTS OR 0.77%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 267.86 PTS OR 1.28%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 183.31 PTS OR 0.66%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.44 Euro RISES TO 1.0628 DOWN 37 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 134.72/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.484%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.347%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.593…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.284//
3j Gold at $1827.50//silver at: 21.31 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 89/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 73.97//
3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 134.72/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .500% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9303–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9888well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.898% UP 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.943 UP 4 BASIS PTS//
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,87…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.567% UP 3 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
“Optimism Is Being Shaken”: US Futures, Global Markets Slide Ahead Of $1.8 Trillion OpEx
FRIDAY, FEB 17, 2023 – 08:12 AM
US futures and global equities extended Thursday’s selloff as a global wave of risk aversion swept across the markets after two of the Fed’s most hawkish (nonvoting) policymakers – Loretta Mester and James Bullard – signaled they may favor returning to bigger, 50bps rate hikes in the future, while European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel also warned that markets may be underestimating inflation, and the risk that the ECB “may have to act more forcefully” against it. S&P 500 futures fell 0.7% as of 7:30 a.m. in New York as the risk-off tone continues with MegaCap Tech underperforming, Nasdaq 100 contracts slide 0.9%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded near the day’s highs, pressuring all Group-of-10 currencies. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, mirroring moves in Europe and the UK. Commodities are mixed with base metals rallying, energy and ags weaker; oil and gold fall while Bitcoin slides for the first time in four days, retreating from the key $25,000 level. Otherwise, it’s a quiet end to the week with just import prices and leading indicators on deck; we also get two Fed speakers: Barkin abd Bowman.
Ahead of the 3-day weekend, today we also get a relatively modest $1.8 trillion option expiration (full preview here) in the form of $740bn SPX am, $600bn of ETF + SPX pm, and $380bn of single stock, and which will see dealers would lose a significant portion of their left tail “long gamma” positioning and which could present an opportunity for vol to go bid, i.e., VIX may spike from its recent subdued range.
In premarket trading, DoorDash advanced 6.7% after the food delivery company published results that showed resilient consumer appetite, with order growth exceeding expectations despite the cost-of-living squeeze. Moderna shares fall 6.5% after mixed results for its mRNA-1010 flu vaccine candidate. Analysts note the drug missed on the B-strains in the study and now all eyes will turn to upcoming efficacy data to give an indication on the approvability of the drug. Here are other notable premarket movers:
Tesla shares slip in US premarket trading, leaving them set to extend Thursday’s losses after the electric-vehicle maker recalled hundreds of thousands of cars over a crash risk in its automated-driving software.
DoorDash jumps 6.7% after the food delivery company published results that showed resilient consumer appetite, with order growth exceeding expectations despite the cost-of-living squeeze.
Applied Materials shares edge 0.6% higher after the biggest maker of semiconductor- manufacturing equipment’s current quarter sales forecast beat expectations.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall, as the price of Bitcoin declines amid jitters over a regulatory clampdown and hawkish comments from Fed officials. Coinbase (COIN US) -1.8%, Stronghold Digital (SDIG US) -5.8%, Bit Digital (BTBT US) -3.4%, Block (SQ US) -1.5%
DraftKings shares rise 7.8% after the sports-betting company reported better-than-expected fourth- quarter revenue. Analysts responded positively to the beat, with many highlighting the structural improvements and strong customer trends as the main drivers.
Watch Nvidia’s stock as its price target was raised to $280 from $220 at KeyBanc Capital Markets, which cited long-term growth opportunity in artificial intelligence and machine learning.
Risk assets were hammered after two of the Fed’s most hawkish policymakers signaled they may favor returning to bigger interest-rate hikes in the future. Their comments followed data that showed US producer prices rebounded in January by more than expected, following consumer price data earlier this week that didn’t slow by as much as forecast. The double whammy of higher prices and hawkish Fed speakers jolted markets that have been rebounding from 2022’s selloff. After leading the rally in 2023, US tech stocks led Thursday’s losses as bond yields advanced. On a longterm horizon, the relative level of US tech stocks still looks elevated even after last year’s brutal selloff. The Nasdaq 100 Index isn’t far off historic highs versus the S&P 500 Index and is still trading near the peak that marked the implosion of the dot-com bubble.
“We still think that interest rates will peak at a higher level than 5%. It’s going to be very data-dependent,” Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy at RBC Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “We dont want to be victims to changes in sentiment, so we are positioned in a neutral way.”
The delayed arrival of a US recession will weigh on stocks in the second half of the year, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett who says a resilient economy thus far means interest rates will stay higher for longer. Hartnett is predicting a scenario known as “no landing” in the first half of the year, where economic growth will stay robust and central banks will likely remain hawkish for longer. That will probably be followed by a “hard landing” in the latter part of 2023, they wrote in a note dated Feb. 16. Meanwhile, investors continued to shun US equities in the week through Feb. 15, with outflows totaling $2.2 billion, Hartnett said in the note, citing EPFR data. On the flip side, Europe saw inflows of $1.5 billion, while emerging-market stocks attracted $100 million.
“It’s taken a lot but it would appear investors’ eternal optimism is being shaken, with the latest PPI figures finally driving the message home that bringing the economy in for a soft landing will be extraordinarily challenging and there’ll likely be plenty of turbulence along the way,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda Europe.
European stocks snapped a four-day winning streak, and retreated after rising to the highest level in a year yesterday, amid renewed concerns about bigger interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was 0.6% lower with technology and energy underperforming. Among prominent stock moves, NatWest Group Plc slumped after issuing 2023 guidance that disappointed, while Mercedes-Benz Group AG climbed as a share buyback and strong fourth-quarter earnings helped offset its outlook that earnings will decline slightly this year. Here are some other notable European movers:
NatWest slides as much as 9.5% after the British lender reported higher costs and guided for profit below what some analysts had expected.
Allianz falls as much as 3.6% with Citi noting the lack of a new buyback and saying that the new guidance from the German insurer is about in line with consensus.
Hermes International slips as much as 2.1% from near-record levels, as Citi flags the group’s expensive valuation and a lack of special dividend despite a record cash position.
GTT falls as much as 9.8% after the French engineering company’s forecast for profit this year missed the average estimate.
Eutelsat shares fall as much as 7.1% to a record low after the satellite operator trimmed its revenue outlook, citing impact from sanctions against Russian and Iranian channels.
NCAB falls as much as 21%, the most since its 2018 IPO, after the Swedish printed circuit- board maker reported a 5% drop in order intake year-on- year.
Mercedes gains as much as 3.2%, the best performer on the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts Index, after reporting strong fourth-quarter results that beat estimates.
Air France-KLM advances as much as 9.8% after delivering a 4Q beat to consensus with a strong top-line boosting operating income and solid performance in unit revenue
Kingspan rises as much as 7.4% in early trading after the Irish insulation and building-products maker reported full-year revenue in line with estimates.
Segro gains as much as 4.7% after results, as analysts say the group remains well-positioned and will continue to deliver good rental growth, with its operational performance robust.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also dropped following a slump on Wall Street, as comments from two Federal Reserve officials weigh on the region’s tech shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.3%, set for a three-week decline that would be its longest losing streak since October. Hong Kong and South Korea were the region’s worst performers, with benchmarks for mainland China, Australia and India also falling. Tech shares including TSMC and Tencent slid after Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said she had seen a “compelling economic case” for rolling out another 50 basis-point hike. St. Louis President James Bullard said he would not rule out supporting a half-percentage-point increase in March. “Markets in general have been too sanguine year to date in terms of the prospect of imminent Fed pivot,” Helen Zhu, managing director and chief investment officer at NH Trinity, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Asia’s benchmark has fallen nearly 5% from a late-January peak, as concerns over higher rates and geopolitical tensions replaced optimism about China’s reopening. Speculation toward potential US rate cuts in the second half of this year was probably “overdone,” Zhu said, adding that Chinese equities may be worth buying on dips to build exposure for the rest of the year.
Japanese stocks followed U.S. shares downwards after hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials. The Topix Index fell 0.5% to 1,991.93 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 0.7% to 27,513.13. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 2.4%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 715 rose and 1,331 fell, while 117 were unchanged. The Fed officials’ comments came after US producer prices rebounded in January by the most since June. “Hawkish comments from Fed officials or economic indicators that concern the Fed would be negative for stock prices,” said Yasuhiro Kano, senior investment manager at Sompo Asset Management.
Australian stocks posted a second weekly loss amid bets for rate hikes; the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.9% to close at 7,346.80, weighed by losses in technology and mining shares. Australia’s labor market is “still very tight” and price pressures remain surprisingly strong, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said, making the case for further interest-rate increases. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.1% to 12,144.66.
In FX, the Dollar Index is up 0.6% leaving it poised for its third weekly advance; the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers as traders rushed to add to the pricing of Fed hikes; the New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone are the worst-performers among the G-10’s.
The euro fell to a six-week low of $1.0630 despite hawkish repricing of the ECB after Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said she saw risks that markets will underestimate inflation. Investors rushed to offload German bonds and money markets amped up rate-hike wagers
The pound shrugged off data showing that UK retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.5% last month after post-Christmas discounting brought people into stores. Economists had expected a drop of 0.3%
The yen fell to 135.03, its weakest level in almost three months; the currency’s volatility term structure peaks on the three-week tenor that captures the next Bank of Japan meeting, yet one-week implieds turn bid Friday
Australian and New Zealand dollars traded fell to six-week lows on the back of a stronger greenback. Aussie yields rose both in sympathy with Treasury moves and after a hawkish senate testimony from Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe
Sweden’s krona extended declines in the European session even after data showed the adjusted unemployment rate fell back to 7.3% in January, from a revised 7.4% in December, increasing the likelihood that the country’s central bank will continue raising rates in response to soaring inflation. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 7.5%
In rates, treasuries extend losses with yields cheaper by 3bp-5bp across the curve vs Thursday’s closing levels. 10-year Treasury yields were around 3.88%, cheaper by ~3bp on the day but outperforming bunds and gilts by 0.5bp and 2bp in the sector; US front-end underperforms on the curve, flattening 2s10s spread by ~1bp. Bunds and gilts are firmly in the red, with 10-year yields in both countries rising 5bps. Core European rates lead the selloff following hawkish comments from ECB’s Schnabel and German PPI data. Germany’s front-end lags as traders fully price a 3.75% ECB rate peak for the first time after Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said she saw risks that markets will underestimate inflation.
In commodities, Crude futures decline with WTI down 2.4% to trade near $76.60. Qatar Energy set April-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at a premium of USD 2.58/bbl above Dubai quotes, according to traders cited by Reuters. Russian President Putin says demand for natural gas will increase; half of the demand will come from APAC, mainly China. China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange says price fluctuations of commodities, including iron ore, are relatively huge; alerts investors to participate rationally. Base metals are slumping on the USD’s upside with spot gold down to a sub-1820/oz trough and LME Copper falling further below USD 9k/T..
In crypto, the SEC filed a securities fraud lawsuit against Terraform Labs and founder Do Hyeong Kwon which alleged that the defendants perpetrated a fraudulent scheme that led to at least USD 40bln of losses in market value, according to Reuters. Senior BoJ official Uchida said the BoJ decided to launch a pilot program this April on a CBDC which aims to test technical feasibility, as well as utilise skills and insights of private businesses.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include Import price index and the Leading Index. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy, and the Fed’s Barkin and Bowman.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 4,079.25
MXAP down 1.2% to 162.48
MXAPJ down 1.3% to 529.74
Nikkei down 0.7% to 27,513.13
Topix down 0.5% to 1,991.93
Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 20,719.81
Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,224.02
Sensex down 0.6% to 60,963.95
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 7,346.77
Kospi down 1.0% to 2,451.21
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 462.23
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.55%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0658
Brent Futures down 1.4% to $83.91/bbl
Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,823.73
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.45% to 104.32
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
China on Friday delivered the largest one-day cash injection into the economy since record keeping started in 2004 as it works to meet rising liquidity needs for the post-COVID economic rebound. SCMP
China’s top tech banker Bao Fan went missing, unnerving the finance industry. Bao’s been out of contact with China Renaissance for about two days, a person familiar said. His family was told he’s assisting an investigation. Shares plunged 28%. Meanwhile, China is said to be poised to name regulatory veterans known for strict campaigns against financial wrongdoing as new heads of the banking and securities watchdogs. BBG
One of the ECB’s most senior officials said that investors risk underestimating the persistence of inflation, and the response needed to bring it under control. “We are still far away from claiming victory,” Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview with Bloomberg, citing the strength of underlying price pressures and faster wage increases. The economy’s reaction to interest-rate increases may prove weaker than in prior episodes, and if that transpires, “we may have to act more forcefully.” BBG
Germany’s PPI comes in above the St consensus for Jan (+17.8% vs. the St +16.4%), the latest hot inflation number out this week. RTRS
UK retail sales rose unexpectedly last month after post-Christmas discounting brought people into stores. The volume of goods sold in stores and online rose 0.5% in January after a 1.2% decline in December, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. Economists had expected a drop of 0.3%. BBG
The SEC accused crypto fugitive Do Kwon and his Terraform Labs of fraud. It alleged they offered and sold unregistered securities, including the failed TerraUSD stablecoin, and carried out a scheme that erased at least $40 billion of market value. In the Mt Gox bankruptcy, the top creditor opted for an early payout in Bitcoin rather than fiat currency, avoiding years of litigation, a person familiar said. BBG
GIR is adding another 25bp in June to our fed baseline following firmer growth & inflation news: Yesterday’s PPI marked the 3rd beat in a string of strong US data prints this week (along with CPI, Retail Sales), which taken together have suggested that the Fed’s work is still not finished, and that the risks of a longer cycle are rising. Tuesday’s CPI report confirmed that underlying inflation remains elevated, and the retail sales report was strong evidence of robust US consumer demand. We had noted that a fading drag from Fed tightening on growth and tight labor market had left greater upside risks to our Fed path, and with comments from the Fed yesterday (Mester in particular, Bullard too) biased in the same way, our economists have added a further 25bp rate hike to their forecasts, now expecting 3 more 25bp hikes in March, May & June for a peak funds rate of 5.25-5.5. GIR
Deere reported strong FQ1 results, and they raised the net income guidance for the year. EPS came in at 6.55 (a full $1 ahead of the St consensus) while the revenue beat was more modest ($11.4B vs. the St $11.22B). Results benefited from ongoing demand strength, coupled with improved operating/supply chain conditions. RTRS
The United Arab Emirates’ national energy company plans to sell a stake of about 4% of its natural-gas business in an initial public offering that it hopes will raise $2 billion, as Middle East petrostates increase plans to supply Europe. WSJ
Yen traders looking to navigate a smooth handover of power at the Bank of Japan face an added complication from fiscal year-end flows which traditionally weigh on the currency
An economy Putin once wanted to make one of the world’s five biggest is on a path to lose $190 billion in gross domestic product by 2026 relative to its prewar trajectory, according to Bloomberg Economics, roughly the equivalent of the entire annual GDP of countries like Hungary or Kuwait
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded negatively as the regional bourses took their cues from the weak performance stateside after firmer-than-expected PPI data and hawkish Fed rhetoric. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in tech following the underperformance of the Nasdaq in the US and with sentiment also dampened as the RBA Governor Lowe reiterated the view for higher rates. Nikkei 225 suffered from the tech rout and as earnings began to quieten, although Bridgestone was among the best performers after a jump in revenue and forecasts for a 12% increase in FY23 profits. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. declined with Hong Kong pressured by tech losses and with frictions stoked after China unveiled sanctions against US firms related to Taiwan arms sales, while the mainland initially bucked the trend after a substantial liquidity injection by the PBoC.
Top Asian News
PBoC injected CNY 835bln via 7-day reverse repos at 2.00% for a CNY 632bln net injection.
RBA Governor Lowe said high inflation is damaging and that they will do what is necessary to make sure inflation returns to the target range, while he noted the Board expects that further increases will be needed over the months ahead. Lowe also reiterated that they are not on a predetermined path on interest rates and have an open mind but their assessment is that they have to go up further on rates. Furthermore, he added that they will slow down on rates if needed and that rates could start to come down next year if they get on top of inflation but a few things would have to go right for that to happen.
European bourses & US futures are pressured amid a myriad of hawkish factors, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0% & ES -0.8%, with more Fed officials scheduled. Sectors are predominantly in the red, with only Autos bucking the trend following earnings from Mercedes-Benz while Tech slumps on elevated yields. Stateside, futures are all in the red and given the session’s action has been driven by hawkish developments, the NQ -1.0% is underperforming.
Top European News
ECB’s Schnabel says it is not easy to say if policy is already restrictive, via Bloomberg. Wage growth is up strongly, may be more persistent; risk markets will underestimate inflation. QT could be sped up after June, nothing has been decided yet. The broad disinflation process has not even started yet. 50bp hike in March is needed under virtually all scenarios. Weaker transmission may require more forceful action.
Diplomats in Brussels suggest a deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol “isn’t quite there, yet”, according to BBC’s Parker; Northern Ireland Alliance party leader says that after meeting UK PM Sunak, it seems that “things are gradually moving towards a protocol deal”, though adds “We are not over the line yet – there is still heavy lifting to do,”
Allianz’s Muted Outlook Takes Shine Off Dividend, Record Profit
European Bonds Drop Sharply as ECB Peak Bets Close In on 3.75%
Ex-Warburg Banker’s Cum-Ex Suit Rejected by Top German Court
KBW More Bullish on Italian Banks, Upgrades Intesa, BAMI
FX
The USD is bolstered with multiple hawkish factors in play, DXY holding just under 104.50 within 104.15-104.51 parameters.
As such, peers are lower across the board with Antipodeans lagging given the double-whammy of USD and commodities weighing; AUD/USD near 0.68 and NZD/USD sub 0.62.
Additionally, the comparatively lower-yielding nation’s FX are towards the bottom of the pile with CHF and JPY above 0.93 and 135.0 respectively vs the USD.
Next up, and despite domestic hawkish factors, EUR and GBP are lower though faring much better than their aforementioned peers given some of the USD’s upside has been offset by ECB’s Schnabel/German PPI and UK Retail Sales.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8659 vs exp. 6.8674 (prev. 6.8519)
Fixed Income
Core benchmarks are under marked pressure as Bullard, German PPI and Schnabel weigh ahead of Fed’s Bowman and Barkin.
Specifically, Bunds down to a 133.67 trough post-Schnabel while Gilts slipped and pricing for a 25bp BoE hike in March lifted slightly on Retail Sales.
Similarly, the EGB periphery is downbeat and interestingly the action has seen the BTP-Bund spread widen to near 190bp, the widest for several weeks given Schnabel’s overt hawkishness.
Stateside, USTs slump as Bullard and GS’ latest FFR call continue to weigh, yields elevated across the curve which is slightly flatter given the short-term implications of the referenced drivers; Bowman & Barkin ahead.
Commodities
The commodity complex is under pressure given the above risk tone and as the USD picks up.
WTI and Brent are subdued with the benchmarks at the lower end of circa. USD 2/bbl parameters and Nat Gas contracts are lower both side of the pond.
Qatar Energy set April-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at a premium of USD 2.58/bbl above Dubai quotes, according to traders cited by Reuters.
Russian President Putin says demand for natural gas will increase; half of the demand will come from APAC, mainly China.
China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange says price fluctuations of commodities, including iron ore, are relatively huge; alerts investors to participate rationally.
Similarly, metals are slumping on the USD’s upside with spot gold down to a sub-1820/oz trough and LME Copper falling further below USD 9k/T.
Geopolitics
Pentagon’s top China official Michael Chase will visit Taiwan in the coming days, according to FT sources; subsequently, clarified that Chase has arrived in Taiwan.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has ruled out giving up any of Ukraine’s territory in a potential peace deal with Russia, according to the BBC.
North Korea said planned US-South Korean military drills will lead to increased tensions in the region and warned that the US and South Korea will face an unprecedently strong response if they go ahead with planned military drills, while it will also consider additional military action in protest against US pressure at the UN Security Council, according to KCNA.
Chinese Foreign Ministry, on President Biden suggesting he will speak to his Chinese counterpart Xi, says the US cannot ask for communications and dialogue while escalating the crisis.
Japan, US, Australia, and India are to hold a foreign ministers’ meeting in March, according to Japanese press Sankei.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Jan. Import Price Index ex Petroleum, est. -0.2%, prior 0.8%
08:30: Jan. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.4%
08:30: Jan. Import Price Index YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 3.5%
08:30: Jan. Export Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 5.0%
08:30: Jan. Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -2.6%
10:00: Jan. Leading Index, est. -0.3%, prior -0.8%
Fed Speakers
08:30: Fed’s Barkin Discusses the US Labor Market
08:45: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Banking Conference
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets took a knock over the last 24 hours, with rates rising and equities selling off thanks to strong inflation data and hawkish central bank rhetoric, as some Fed officials even floated the prospect they might resume 50bp hikes. That saw the S&P 500 shed -1.38%, with sharp losses into the close, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield rose another +5.6bps to 3.86%, which is its highest level so far in 2023. Indeed, the 10yr yield is now up by +46.8bps over the last 10 trading sessions, marking the fastest increase over two weeks since September. All these moves show how we’ve seen a significant change in the market narrative since the jobs report, with much stronger-than-expected numbers on inflation and the economy raising the prospect that the Fed will keep hiking rates for some time yet.
This narrative got a fresh boost from the latest data on US producer prices in January, which surprised well on the upside of expectations. For instance, the monthly headline number came in at a 7-month high of +0.7% (vs. +0.4% expected), which meant that the year-on-year total only declined to +6.0% (vs. +5.4% expected). The core numbers didn’t look promising either, with the total excluding food and energy and trade services up by a 10-month high of +0.6% (vs. +0.3% expected). So purely based on the January numbers, we’ve now seen inflation accelerate on both the CPI and PPI measures relative to where things stood in Q4.
Time will tell how this plays out, but in the meantime we got another round of hawkish commentary from Fed officials yesterday. In fact, Cleveland Fed President Mester said that she even “saw a compelling economic case for a 50 basis-point increase” at the most recent meeting, when they opted to downshift hikes back to 25bps. Furthermore, she said that 25bps were not inevitable and that “we can move faster, and we can do bigger at any particular meeting.” That was then followed up by St Louis Fed President Bullard, who said he wouldn’t rule out supporting a 50bp hike in March as well, and said that his judgement was “it will be a long battle against inflation.”
On the back of those comments, investors moved to price in a growing probability that the Fed might choose to move by more than 25bps at the next meeting in March. Indeed, looking at Fed funds futures, a +28.2bps hike is now priced in for the next meeting, which is the highest to date, and means at least a small chance is priced that they might opt for a bigger move. On top of that, expectations of the terminal rate now stand at their highest to date, at 5.29% in July. That said, we’ve still got plenty of data coming out before that next decision, including the jobs report and CPI print for February, so all eyes will be on those releases.
Against this backdrop, Treasuries struggled once again, with the 10yr yield up +5.6bps to 3.86%, which has been followed up by a further +2.3bps increase overnight to 3.88%. Higher inflation breakevens have been the driver over the last couple of sessions, with the 10yr breakeven up +3.2bps yesterday to 2.38%, whilst the 2yr breakeven was up another +0.4bps to 2.87%. The 2yr breakeven had closed as low as 2.04% as recently as January 18, so it’s clear that investors are moving to reappraise the near-term inflation profile in light of the recent data.
Elsewhere, US equities had a rough session of their own yesterday, although the S&P 500 was initially down as much as -1.36%, before recovering to only be down -0.27%, before then falling sharply following the Bullard comments to close -1.40%. The declines were pretty broad-based, with every sector group in the S&P losing ground. Other indices also struggled too, including the NASDAQ (-1.78%) and the Dow Jones (-1.26%).
Those equity declines followed a bunch of data that painted a more downbeat view on the rest of the US economy. For instance, housing starts fell by more than expected to an annualised rate of 1.309m in January (vs. 1.356m expected). That takes them to their lowest since June 2020, when the economy was still recovering from the initial Covid-19 wave, and means that housing starts have fallen for 5 consecutive months for the first time since 2009. Elsewhere, we also had the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook, which fell down to -24.3 (vs. -7.5 expected). Bear in mind as well that in available data back to 1968, the index has never been this low without a recession following within months.
Over in Europe however, the picture has remained comparatively upbeat. In fact the STOXX 600 (+0.19%) closed at a one-year high yesterday, with its YTD gains now standing at +9.50%, albeit that was before the Bullard comments. It was a similar story for some of the other indices, with the DAX (+0.18%) and the CAC 40 (+0.89%) also closing at one-year highs of their own, whilst the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.18%) reached an all-time high as it closed above the 8,000 mark for the first time.
Whilst European equities put in a decent performance, sovereign bonds lost a bit of ground like in the US. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds saw a modest +0.3bps increase to close at their highest level of 2023 so far, at 2.47%, and yields on 2yr German debt hit a post-2008 high. That followed a collection of ECB speakers across the hawk-dove spectrum. For instance, the Executive Board’s Panetta (a dove) said that “we now need to take into account the risk of overtightening alongside the risk of doing too little”, and also that “we face so much uncertainty in both directions, I would consider it unwise to move very fast”. But on the other hand, Bundesbank President Nagel said that “I can’t see that we’re in restrictive territory right now”. As in the US though, there was evidence that inflation expectations were creeping higher, since the 5y5y forward inflation swap for the Euro Area (which looks at inflation over the 5 years starting in 5 years’ time) hit its joint highest closing level since May yesterday, at 2.41%.
Staying on Europe, next week DB Research’s CEEMEA team will be hosting a webinar on the war in Ukraine next week. They’ll be joined by Michael Kofman, the Research Director of the Russia Studies Program at the CAN, and will be discussing the latest developments in the conflict, the likely next steps in the war effort, the implications of recent sanctions, the prospects of a peace agreement, and the risks of escalation. That’s taking place on Tuesday at 1pm London time, and the link to sign up is here.
Overnight in Asia, equity markets are under pressure this morning, following up those overnight losses on Wall Street. As we go to press, the KOSPI (-0.77%), the Nikkei (-0.64%), the Hang Seng (-0.58%), the CSI (-0.48%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.16%) have all lost ground. And on the FX side, the Japanese Yen has weakened to 134.71 per US Dollar, its weakest level since the BoJ’s surprise move to adjust their yield curve control policy in December. That comes amidst firming expectations the Fed will stick to their hawkish stance, and the broader dollar index is also at its strongest since early January. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.78%) is trading lower after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Lowe reiterated warnings of inflation risks while pointing to further rate hikes in coming months. This negative sentiment is being seen elsewhere too, with US stock futures indicating further losses today, including those for the S&P 500 (-0.50%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.68%).
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK retail sales and German PPI for January, whilst in the US there’s also the Conference Board’s leading index for January. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy, and the Fed’s Barkin and Bowman.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Hawkish price action in full swing amid a myriad of factors, Bowman & Barkin ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, FEB 17, 2023 – 06:37 AM
European bourses & US futures are pressured amid a myriad of hawkish factors, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0% & ES -0.8%, with more Fed officials scheduled.
As such, the USD is bolstered with Antipodeans lagging while EUR & GBP are the relative outperformers, though lower vs USD, given domestic hawkish drivers.
Specifically, explicitly hawkish commentary from ECB’s Schnabel, hotter-than-expected German PPI and UK Retail Sales exert influence.
In the wake of this, Bunds down to a 133.67 trough with Gilts similarly downbeat while the US yield curve is elevated & slightly flatter.
The commodity complex is under pressure given the above risk tone and as the USD picks up.
US Pentagon’s top China official Chase has arrived in Taiwan, via FT.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices, Speeches from Fed’s Bowman & Barkin.
The USD is bolstered with multiple hawkish factors in play, DXY holding just under 104.50 within 104.15-104.51 parameters.
As such, peers are lower across the board with Antipodeans lagging given the double-whammy of USD and commodities weighing; AUD/USD near 0.68 and NZD/USD sub 0.62.
Additionally, the comparatively lower-yielding nation’s FX are towards the bottom of the pile with CHF and JPY above 0.93 and 135.0 respectively vs the USD.
Next up, and despite domestic hawkish factors, EUR and GBP are lower though faring much better than their aforementioned peers given some of the USD’s upside has been offset by ECB’s Schnabel/German PPI and UK Retail Sales.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8659 vs exp. 6.8674 (prev. 6.8519)
Core benchmarks are under marked pressure as Bullard, German PPI and Schnabel weigh ahead of Fed’s Bowman and Barkin.
Specifically, Bunds down to a 133.67 trough post-Schnabel while Gilts slipped and pricing for a 25bp BoE hike in March lifted slightly on Retail Sales.
Similarly, the EGB periphery is downbeat and interestingly the action has seen the BTP-Bund spread widen to near 190bp, the widest for several weeks given Schnabel’s overt hawkishness.
Stateside, USTs slump as Bullard and GS’ latest FFR call continue to weigh, yields elevated across the curve which is slightly flatter given the short-term implications of the referenced drivers; Bowman & Barkin ahead.
The commodity complex is under pressure given the above risk tone and as the USD picks up.
WTI and Brent are subdued with the benchmarks at the lower end of circa. USD 2/bbl parameters and Nat Gas contracts are lower both side of the pond.
Qatar Energy set April-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at a premium of USD 2.58/bbl above Dubai quotes, according to traders cited by Reuters.
Russian President Putin says demand for natural gas will increase; half of the demand will come from APAC, mainly China.
China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange says price fluctuations of commodities, including iron ore, are relatively huge; alerts investors to participate rationally.
Similarly, metals are slumping on the USD’s upside with spot gold down to a sub-1820/oz trough and LME Copper falling further below USD 9k/T.
ECB’s Schnabel says it is not easy to say if policy is already restrictive, via Bloomberg. Wage growth is up strongly, may be more persistent; risk markets will underestimate inflation. QT could be sped up after June, nothing has been decided yet. The broad disinflation process has not even started yet. 50bp hike in March is needed under virtually all scenarios. Weaker transmission may require more forceful action.
Diplomats in Brussels suggest a deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol “isn’t quite there, yet”, according to BBC’s Parker; Northern Ireland Alliance party leader says that after meeting UK PM Sunak, it seems that “things are gradually moving towards a protocol deal”, though adds “We are not over the line yet – there is still heavy lifting to do,”
DATA RECAP
German Producer Prices YY (Jan) 17.8% vs. Exp. 16.4% (Prev. 21.6%); MM (Jan) -1.0% vs. Exp. -1.6% (Prev. -0.4%)
UK Retail Sales MM (Jan) 0.5% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -1.0%, Rev. -1.2%); YY (Jan) -5.1% vs. Exp. -5.5% (Prev. -5.8%, Rev. -6.1%)
UK Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM (Jan) 0.4% (Prev. -1.1%, Rev. -1.4%); YY (Jan) -5.3% vs. Exp. -5.3% (Prev. -6.1%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Goldman Sachs expects three more 25bp hikes from the Fed in March, May and June to a peak FFR of 5.25-5.50%; due to stronger growth and firmer inflation news.
Pentagon’s top China official Michael Chase will visit Taiwan in the coming days, according to FT sources; subsequently, clarified that Chase has arrived in Taiwan.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has ruled out giving up any of Ukraine’s territory in a potential peace deal with Russia, according to the BBC.
North Korea said planned US-South Korean military drills will lead to increased tensions in the region and warned that the US and South Korea will face an unprecedently strong response if they go ahead with planned military drills, while it will also consider additional military action in protest against US pressure at the UN Security Council, according to KCNA.
Chinese Foreign Ministry, on President Biden suggesting he will speak to his Chinese counterpart Xi, says the US cannot ask for communications and dialogue while escalating the crisis.
Japan, US, Australia, and India are to hold a foreign ministers’ meeting in March, according to Japanese press Sankei.
CRYPTO
US SEC filed a securities fraud lawsuit against Terraform Labs and founder Do Hyeong Kwon which alleged that the defendants perpetrated a fraudulent scheme that led to at least USD 40bln of losses in market value, according to Reuters.
Senior BoJ official Uchida said the BoJ decided to launch a pilot program this April on a CBDC which aims to test technical feasibility, as well as utilise skills and insights of private businesses.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded negatively as the regional bourses took their cues from the weak performance stateside after firmer-than-expected PPI data and hawkish Fed rhetoric.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in tech following the underperformance of the Nasdaq in the US and with sentiment also dampened as the RBA Governor Lowe reiterated the view for higher rates.
Nikkei 225 suffered from the tech rout and as earnings began to quieten, although Bridgestone was among the best performers after a jump in revenue and forecasts for a 12% increase in FY23 profits.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. declined with Hong Kong pressured by tech losses and with frictions stoked after China unveiled sanctions against US firms related to Taiwan arms sales, while the mainland initially bucked the trend after a substantial liquidity injection by the PBoC.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC injected CNY 835bln via 7-day reverse repos at 2.00% for a CNY 632bln net injection.
RBA Governor Lowe said high inflation is damaging and that they will do what is necessary to make sure inflation returns to the target range, while he noted the Board expects that further increases will be needed over the months ahead. Lowe also reiterated that they are not on a predetermined path on interest rates and have an open mind but their assessment is that they have to go up further on rates. Furthermore, he added that they will slow down on rates if needed and that rates could start to come down next year if they get on top of inflation but a few things would have to go right for that to happen.
1.c FRIDAY/ THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 25.01 PTS OR 0.77% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 267.86 PTS OR 1.28% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 183.31 PTS OR 0.66% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.90% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8782 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8841// /Oil DOWN TO 76,57 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 82.60 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/
end
3c CHINA /
CHINA/USA
China retaliates against the uSA for blowing up its balloon as they sanction Raytheon. Interestly the banned the use of Raytheon missiles to Taiwan. Let us see how the USA reacts to this.
(zerohedge)
China Hits Lockheed Martin, Raytheon With Retaliatory Sanctions Amid Balloon Saga
THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 10:00 PM
China has made good on its prior threats to retaliate and introduce “countermeasures” against the United States following the ‘spy’ balloon shootdown incident a week-and-a-half ago, and has done so in relation to Washington arming Taiwan.
On Thursday Beijing has unveiled new sanctions against Lockheed Martin Corporation and Raytheon Missiles & Defense, a subsidiary of Raytheon Technologies Corp – both of which are now banned from either importing, exporting and investing in China.
They are now on China’s “unreliable entities list” of companies deemed a threat to national sovereignty and security, and so will have their activities restricted, along with punitive fines.
“Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Missiles will not be allowed to invest within China and they will be fined an amount equivalent to twice the value of their contracts related to the sale of arms to Taiwan island since the implementation of China’s Unreliable Entity List rules,” writes China Daily.
While the move is seen as most immediately connected with Raytheon and Lockheed’s major weapons contracts with the self-ruled island of Taiwan brokered under US government approval, the catalyst appears to be the US shootdown of the Chinese balloon off South Carolina on Feb.4 and ensuing war of words and accompanying accusations.
While neither companies have done military equipment deals with China, especially since the US long ago banned such transfers with China, the sanctions might be felt to a limited degree by the civilian aviation industry in China:
Raytheon Missiles and Defense, part of Raytheon Technologies Corp, was awarded a $412m contract in September to upgrade Taiwan’s military radar as part of a $1.1bn package of US arms sales to the island. Lockheed Martin has supplied Taiwan’s military with radar, helicopters and air traffic control equipment.
In China, Lockheed Martin has sold air traffic control equipment for civilian airports and helicopters for commercial use.
Last week, the US slapped punitive sanctions on six Chinese entities believed connected to the alleged Chinese spy balloon breaching American airspace.
China had promised to send a strong message back, while also pointing out that the US has breached Chinese airspace ten times in the last year with balloons. China’s foreign ministry has maintained the object was a weather balloon which blew off course, and that the situation is being exploited by the Biden administration to attack Beijing.
END
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
GERMANY/
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE/RUSSIA//NATO
this is a must read as it highlights more details on the Seymour Hersh bombshell report
Global Confusion – Neo Things Are Coming – Part 4 – BattleForWorld
Robert Hryniak
9:29 AM (7 minutes ago)
to
Sometimes one is simply baffled at naive strategy. Today’s supply of LNG is fragile due to supply and means of delivery. It would would not take but a few sinking of vessels to cause Europe to freeze and industry to shutter. The time it would take to produce new vessels would render Europe to be become a wasteland. And for what?
Pepe Escobar on Twitter: “PENTAGON INSIDER CONFIRMS SY HERSH Biden ordered the bombing. Told Norway, Sweden, Denmark. NOT Germany. Planning leader: Sullivan. Members from CIA, NSA, Joint Chiefs, Treasury, State. Bombs detonated by Raytheon buoy. 2 out of 8 failed. “Derision” among intel/military.” / Twitter
Robert Hryniak
10:09 AM (1 minute ago)
to
Suppose Pepe is correct as it backs up what Hersh wrote last week. Does this not make America a rogue actor on a world stage? No previous administration was so cavalier with agenda or so foolish in implementation. When currency use is married to hegemony and military use, all suffer the same fate. At no no time in history did a settlement currency survive very long with such abuse. And today, the USD is down in the low 30’s in terms of desired settlement for trade and this is down from the 50’s in volume it was a short number of years ago. Neglect, thievery, and outright abuse of privilege all collide in nations looking for alternatives. No wonder the BRICS seek an alternative common currency value, free of such moribund thinking as is exhibited from the ship of fools. What stated as a attempt to break up Russia for its’ natural resources to plunder is turning out to be a colossal error of judgement blind with hatred giving rise to a Stable coin backed by gold in part, coming soon. Use of the USD as a settlement currency is no longer something to taken for granted in the future. Rogues are shunned and avoided and bullies lose all stature once confronted. Today, the longer the conflict goes on in Ukraine, the more NATO and America lose in stature on a global stage. And this loss is something that will not be regained easily and needs a fresh face and approach. The inability to change direction by a ship of fools will be the America”s Waterloo and that of the West because the inability to change makes irrelevance amongst a world in flux looking for alternatives. And we will be watching the slow painful demise of the Western world we knew as a result, without a wholesale change of attitude and approach in what clearly is a multipolar world. Where previous plundering tactics find no room or tolerance.
PENTAGON INSIDER CONFIRMS SY HERSH
Biden ordered the bombing.
Told Norway, Sweden, Denmark.
NOT Germany.
Planning leader: Sullivan.
Members from CIA, NSA, Joint Chiefs, Treasury, State.
Since this genie has been let out of the bottle, how long before specific targeted bioweapons occur? Is this not what the labs in Ukraine were all about?
In his 135-page book “Is COVID-19 a Bioweapon? A Scientific and Forensic Investigation,” Dr. Richard M. Fleming decodes the genetic sequence of COVID-19. The nuclear cardiologist, lawyer, and medical researcher has discovered in this sequence, many—if not all—of the components of what he calls “a biological weapon.” He writes:
“SARS-CoV-1 was a genetically modified (gain-of-function) virus that was also a bioweapon developed by the Chinese Communist Party, with SARS-CoV-2 being the upgraded version of this bioweapon.”
The doctor determined this was the case mainly based on interviews—one of which is transcribed in the book—conducted with Dr. Li-Meng Yan, a Chinese medical doctor and virologist who escaped to the United States in 2020.
Fleming states Yan asserted that “SARS-CoV-1 was the first bioweapon and that SARS-CoV-2 is the advanced version.” Yan contends that the Chinese military knew about the development of artificial viruses as potential bioweapons, as revealed in the book. She is still in hiding in fear for her life.
In colorful charts and graphs, Fleming explains, in layman’s terms, each component in the SARS-CoV-2 sequence, detailing how each was likely added to the mix to create a potential monster out of existing viruses, in a Wuhan lab. The details of the genetic sequencing alone would make this book well worth purchasing.
The Likely Suspects
Fleming provides a paper trail pointing the finger at the likely suspects who funded what he calls a “criminal experiment.” In gain-of-function research, scientists and technicians enhance the lethal capability of viruses in order to “better understand how something like a coronavirus might mutate over time.” He states:
“Such mutations might allow scientists and physicians to stay ahead of such infections … Instead of asking questions about what might happen naturally, this research became one of intentionally making those changes occur not in small incremental steps as might occur naturally, but in larger steps that would most likely take centuries to occur—if at all.”
Fleming reports President Obama banned gain-of-function from U.S. labs in October of 2014 after workers were exposed to anthrax. Yet, it reemerged several years later in China. Was it secretly funded by U.S. organizations in China while it was banned in the United States?
The U.S. Government’s Investment in Biological Cleansing
Fleming provides financial documents from 2018 proving that gain-of-function research with bats was being conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, funded by U.S. donors.
The doctor includes the dollar amounts various U.S. organizations contributed to this so-called research. Millions came from agencies connected to the U.S. government including the Department of Defense. He asks:
“What new pandemic now awaits humanity given this Gain-of-Function funding by the U.S. federal government—and other governments, corporations, and individuals—including SARS-CoV-2, viruses, bacteria, and biologic pathogenic agents?”
Fleming is also sounding the alarm about the efficacy and safety of COVID vaccines. Because he sees COVID as a lab-created bioweapon, he writes, “there are no real effective vaccines against the pandemic.”
Fleming warns about the danger of turning “the practice of medicine and honest scientific investigation over to the government,” as happened under the administration of Adolf Hitler. He writes:
“Many people over the years have decided what was best for humanity. Bill Gates has commented on more than one occasion that the use of clustered regularly interspersed short palindromic repeats technology would make it possible to ‘eliminate undesirable genes’ and ‘potentially swap in preferable alternatives’—a concept held by others in history, including Dr. Josef Mengele.”
Fleming cites that under Hitler, doctors became “biological soldiers” committed to “cleansing” the population of “inferior” genetic material.
Funding COVID–A ‘Crime Against Humanity’?
The doctor states that those responsible for funding and unleashing the COVID bioweapon are guilty of “crimes against humanity.” He calls for “criminal accountability” for those who caused “this devastation, destruction, and death across the planet.”
This incredibly well-documented, concise, and passionate book sheds an informative light on what may have really happened in Wuhan and gives detailed proof about who funded the so-called scientific research. It also provides some interesting speculation as to why the U.S. government got involved in the project while postulating a fascinating framework about what the funders may have hoped to obtain out of it.
Fleming is currently providing a free summary of his book in kindle version on Amazon.
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times. Epoch Health welcomes professional discussion and friendly debate. To submit an opinion piece, please follow these guidelines and submit through our form here.
end
Mainstream media continues to push the false COVID heart narrative explaining excess deaths. Criminals
(zerohedge)
Mainstream Media Continues To Push False ‘COVID Heart’ Narrative To Explain Excess Deaths
FRIDAY, FEB 17, 2023 – 05:45 AM
CBS joins the chorus of mainstream media outlets promoting the false narrative that covid is the cause of a sharp increase in excess heart failure deaths around the world. The concept of “covid heart” has been thoroughly debunked by multiple studies, yet the lie continues to persist because of media disinformation.
An early report that set in motion fears of a Covid-heart disease connection was published in JAMA Cardiology on July 27, 2020. German researchers claimed that 78% of recently recovered Covid-19 patients had “abnormal” signs on their cardiac magnetic resonance scans and 60% showed signs of inflamed heart muscle, a condition known as myocarditis. Those astonishing numbers were covered in nearly 400 news outlets. The report has so far received been viewed more than 900,000 times — a rarity for academic papers.
Soon after its publication, however, the paper was criticized for statistical and methodologic errors. It eventually underwent a long but much quieter correction that indicated that many of the abnormalities were only marginally more common among those recovering from Covid-19 than among similar control individuals who had not had Covid-19.
The assertion of the existence of covid heart serves a useful purpose, however, as it conveniently helps to distract from the very real threat of myocarditis caused by mRNA vaccines. Studies show a direct connection between covid vaccination, boosters, and risk of heart failure, specifically in younger people. The corporate media continues to ignore these studies in favor of the covid heart claim.
The CBS report presents a correlation as proof of causation: The explosion in heart failure happened in parallel with the pandemic, therefore, they say it “must be covid” that is causing the damage. But there was one other event that also happened in parallel with the heart failure spike – The introduction of experimental mRNA vaccines which have never been used before.
In reality, there is no evidence of a significant increase in risk of heart problems from contraction of covid, and there are no studies yet that use unvaccinated people as a control group to determine if vaccines help or hurt a patient’s chances. Medical officials simply assume that the deaths of younger people are due to them being “less likely” to have been vaccinated. The complete absence of objective scientific analysis has contributed to a lack of understanding surrounding covid risks versus vaccine risks. Mainstream outlets have consistently proven they are only interested repeating establishment positions and protecting the status quo.
Why don’t medical authorities use unvaccinated people as a control group for their observations? Why do they continue to promote assumptions rather than definitive evidence? One can only theorize, but this behavior suggests a desire to hide certain findings and mislead the public rather than uncover the facts.
New memos unmask secret deal between US, Britain to hide COVID vaccine adverse events
President of Judicial Watch Tom Fitton said that recent documents obtained by the watchdog group reveal that the United States was involved in a secret deal with the United Kingdom to keep information about adverse reactions to the COVID-19 vaccine hidden from the public.
“They were talking about anaphylaxis responses and adverse events related to the vaccine,” Fitton said on the Wednesday edition of the “Just the News, No Noise” TV show. “They were sharing information with their UK counterparts.”
Judicial Watch put out a press release last week, linking to the 57 pages of redacted documents.
“Judicial Watch announced today it received 57 pages of heavily redacted records from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) that show, just two days prior to FDA approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, a discussion between U.S. and UK health regulators regarding the COVID shot and ‘anaphylaxis,’ with the regulators emphasizing their ‘mutual confidentiality agreement,'” the press release reads.
Fitton said that the information revealed is troubling to say the least.
“Why are we engaged in a secret deal to keep secret information about adverse events related to the vaccines?” he asked. “I just think it’s troubling. The documents speak for themselves.”
Fitton added that this isn’t the first time something like this has happened.
“It’s not the first time we’ve seen this,” he said. “Back when COVID first emerged, we uncovered documents showing there was an agreement with the Chinese where they dictated terms of secrecy and an agreement in exchange for our ability to go over there. And it looks like in order to look at what information they had on the virus at the time. Obviously, they weren’t terribly forthcoming.”
END
Now the NFL players Association gets it: they urge to screen for heart issues
(Stieber/EpochTimes)
NFL Players’ Association Urged To Screen for Heart Issues Over Vaccine Side Effects
The NFL Players’ Association is being urged to offer players cardiac screening in light of the growing concern over COVID-19 vaccines causing heart inflammation.
The Health Freedom Defense Fund urged the association in a recent letter to implement screening because the vaccines can cause myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation. Young males are the most at risk.
Most NFL players received a COVID-19 vaccine under pressure from teams and the league.
“Safety signals illustrate that the near and long-term health outcomes of the COVID-19 vaccines remain uncertain,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the fund, told DeMaurice Smith, executive director of the association (NFLPA), in the missive.
“A multitude of adverse reactions to these injections, including myocarditis, are wide ranging and confirmed, and as such, prudence dictates that the NFLPA investigate the extent to which the COVID-19 shots may have resulted in injury, compromised health or death of players,” Manookian said.
She pointed out that Damar Hamlin, a safety for the Buffalo Bills, suffered a cardiac arrest on the field during a Monday Night Football game in January. The reason for the incident remains unknown; Hamlin declined to convey what his doctors told him during a recent televised interview. Former NFL players have also suffered heart attacks and strokes following vaccination.
The NFLPA should introduce “a testing and screening program to determine whether players have been adversely affected by the injections and to develop a set of functional medical protocols and treatments in order to address and heal any deleterious effects of the vaccines,” Manookian said.
The NFLPA declined to comment to The Epoch Times.
The association has not responded to the letter, which was sent via email and regular mail, Manookian told The Epoch Times.
Former NFL player Ken Ruettgers, who started the Voices for Medical Freedom podcast, previously warned an associate who works for the NFLPA of post-vaccination cardiac events and offered to connect the group with doctors with knowledge of the issues.
The associate thanked Reuttgers but did not accept the offer, Reuttgers told The Epoch Times.
“The challenge is, it’s almost like a fighter pilot that, ‘I don’t want to be tested because if I come up positive, I don’t want to be grounded,’” Reuttgers said.
The U.S. Navy will no longer consider the COVID-19 vaccination status of sailors when making decisions about their deployment, according to newly updated Navy guidance published this week.
The updated guidance comes shortly after Congress removed the military’s vaccine requirement as part of the $858 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2023.
Biden signed the (NDAA) into law in December and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin officially rescinded the vaccination mandate in January.
“Commanders should seek advice from medical providers regarding medical readiness of personnel to inform deployment and other operational mission decisions,” the Navy’s new guidance said.
“COVID-19 vaccination status shall not be a consideration in assessing individual service member suitability for deployment or other operational missions.”
“Under no circumstances shall a Commander mandate that any Navy Service member receives the COVID-19 vaccination,” it adds.
Prior to the updated guidance, the mandate requiring that vaccine status be considered before the deployment of sailors had been in place for more than a year.
No Distinction Between Vaccinated, Non-Vaccinated
Thursday’s updated guidance also noted, “Commanders retain the authority to implement Health Protection Measures at any time or manner deemed necessary in support of operational safety and effectiveness, and where necessary, to restrict movement of service members in order to comply with host nation quarantine regulations.”
Additionally, it noted that senior members of the navy should still evaluate risks to missions and individual sailors.
“Commanders at all levels are directed to balance operational employment with the health and safety of their units in accordance with current USD (P&R) Force Health Protection Guidance,” the guidance said.
It also noted that sailors who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19 may still face restrictions when entering countries that have COVID-19 regulations such as quarantine in place, and that in such cases, commanders will need to ensure sailors comply with those requirements.
“GNCCs [Geographic Navy Component Commanders] will assess and determine in advance any host nation quarantine regulation requirements that may challenge U.S. sovereign immunity policy,” the guidance stated.
The guidance makes it clear that there is no distinction between vaccinated and non-vaccinated sailors, and that individual cases of COVID-19 will no longer need to be reported, although pandemic or infectious disease-related medical evacuations, hospitalizations, and deaths will still need to be reported.
According to the United States Naval Institute (USNI), the Navy has separated a total of 2,096 sailors for not adhering to the earlier COVID-19 vaccine mandate—1,664 of whom were on active duty.
end
This is very troublesome: WHO convenes an urgent meeting over the outbreak of Marburg..probably the world’s worst virus
(Phillips/EpochTimes)
WHO Convenes ‘Urgent’ Meeting Over Marburg, One Of World’s Deadliest Viruses
The World Health Organization (WHO) convened an “urgent meeting” this week amid an outbreak of the Marburg virus, which causes one of the world’s deadliest diseases, in Africa.
Health officials say Marburg, first seen in the late 1960s, is related to Ebola. However, WHO officials say it’s far more deadly, killing upwards of 88 percent of people who contract it.
The virus has been detected in several African countries over the past several months, including recently in Equatorial Guinea. A small number of Marburg cases were found in Ghana late last year.
“WHO on Tuesday convened an urgent meeting of the Marburg virus vaccine consortium (MARVAC) to discuss the outbreak,” a news release from the United Nations-backed health agency said on Tuesday, adding that Equatorial Guinea has confirmed its first-ever case of the virus. WHO officials say the virus is responsible for nine deaths in the tiny African nation.
The Marburg outbreak was centered around Kie Ntem Province, located in western Equatorial Guinea. The deaths occurred between Jan. 7 and Feb. 7, WHO said, citing reports.
“Surveillance in the field has been intensified,” George Ameh, WHO’s country representative in Equatorial Guinea, was quoted as saying by the Daily Mail during Tuesday’s meeting. “Contact tracing, as you know, is a cornerstone of the response. We have … redeployed the COVID-19 teams that were there for contact tracing and quickly retrofitted them to really help us out.”
In its release, WHO said it sent “advance teams” to impacted districts in the West African country to provide medical care and perform contract tracing. “Health authorities sent samples to the Institut Pasteur reference laboratory in Senegal, with support from WHO, to determine the cause,” Tuesday’s release added. “Eight samples were tested, one of which turned out positive.”
Cases of the virus, however, are considered rare. Annual global figures released by WHO indicate that cases tend to be in the single digits worldwide.
And although it remains “a very rare disease in people,” says the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “when it occurs, it has the potential to spread,” and can be highly deadly. “Health care staff and family members who care for the patient” infected with the hemorrhagic fever are most at risk, the CDC says (pdf) in a fact sheet.
data is clear that compared to pre-Omicron periods, in Omicron period unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2 positive adults <65 years old without comorbidity had reduced proportions of hospitalization & death
‘In the Omicron period, compared to pre-Omicron periods, unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2 positive adults <65 years old without comorbidity had reduced proportions of hospitalization and death overall’.
The reduced severity and burden of COVID-19 in 2022 can largely be attributable to vaccination and a shift to Omicron predominance. However, millions of individuals remain unvaccinated. In the present study, we aimed to study disease severity in unvaccinated individuals without risk factors during the Omicron period, compared to pre-Omicron periods.
Methods
This register-based study included all unvaccinated individuals in Sweden aged 18-64 years without comorbidity or care dependency who were SARS-CoV-2 positive between week 45 of 2020 and week 5 of 2022. Variant of concern (VOC) periods were periods with certain VOCs identified in ≥92% of sequenced cases nationwide. Outcomes were hospitalization with a main discharge code of COVID-19; severe illness, defined as high-flow nasal oxygen treatment or intensive care unit admission; and death with COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate.
Results
Among 788,895 individuals in the overall SARS-CoV-2 positive cohort, both hospitalization and death increased stepwise from the pre-VOC period to the Alpha and Delta periods, and decreased in the Omicron period. Among 15,179 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, the proportions with severe illness and death increased to the Delta period, but in the Omicron period, these outcomes returned to the level of the pre-VOC period.
Conclusion
In the Omicron period, compared to pre-Omicron periods, unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2 positive adults <65 years old without comorbidity had reduced proportions of hospitalization and death overall, but similar proportion of severe illness among patients hospitalized for COVID-19. These results support continuous efforts to prevent hospitalizations for COVID-19.’
Below is the health alert from the Florida Department of Heath showing a whopping 1,700% increase in VAERS reports after the release of the COVID vaccine. The reporting of life-threatening conditions increased by over 4,400%. In Florida alone!
The COVID-19 pandemic brought many challenges that the health and medical field have never encountered. Although the initial response was led by a sense of urgency and crisis management, the State Surgeon General believes it is critical that as public health professionals, responses are adapted to the present to chart a future guided by data.
The State Surgeon General is notifying the health care sector and public of a substantial increase in Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) reports from Florida after the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.
In Florida alone, there was a 1,700% increase in VAERS reports after the release of the COVID-19 vaccine, compared to an increase of 400% in overall vaccine administration for the same time period (Figure 1 above).
The reporting of life-threatening conditions increased over 4,400%. This is a novel increase and was not seen during the 2009 H1N1 vaccination campaign. There is a need for additional unbiased research to better understand the COVID-19 vaccines’ short- and long-term effects.
The findings in Florida are consistent with various studies that continue to uncover such risks. To further evaluate this, the Surgeon General wrote a letter to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) illustrating the risk factors associated with the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and emphasizing the need for additional transparency.
According to a study, Fraiman J et al, Vaccine. 2022, mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events, including coagulation disorders, acute cardiac injuries, Bell’s palsy, and encephalitis. This risk was 1 in 550 individuals, which is much higher than other vaccines.
A second study, Sun CLF et al, Sci Rep. 2022, found increased acute cardiac arrests and other acute cardiac events following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.
Additionally, Dag Berild J et al, JAMA Netw Open. 2022, assessed the risk of thromboembolic and thrombocytopenic events related to COVID-19 vaccines and found preliminary evidence of increased risk of both coronary disease and cardiovascular disease.
While the CDC has identified safety signals for stroke among individuals 65 and older following the bivalent booster administration, there is a need for additional assessments and research regarding safety of all mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.
To support transparency, the State of Florida reminds health care providers to accurately communicate the risks and benefits of all clinical interventions to their patients, including those associated with the COVID-19 vaccine as additional risks continue to be identified and disclosed to the public.
The State of Florida remains dedicated to protecting communities from the risks of COVID-19 and other public health concerns, specifically by promoting the importance of treatment and promoting prevention through healthy habits. We encourage our health care partners and providers to do the same.
Additionally, the Florida Surgeon General, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, sent a letter to the Food And Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner and Centers for Disease Control (CDC) director citing the 4,400% increase in reports of life-threatening conditions in Florida following the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.
Florida has never seen this type of response following previous mass vaccination efforts pushed by the federal government.
In Florida alone, we saw a 1,700% increase in reports after the release of the COVID-19 vaccine, compared to an increase of 400% in vaccine administration for the same period.
The Report of life-threatening conditions increased 4,400%.
According to a recent study, mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events, including coagulation disorders, acute cardiac injuries, Bell’s palsy, and encephalitis, to name a few. This risk was 1 in 550, much higher than other vaccines. To claim these vaccines are “safe and effective” while minimizing and disregarding the adverse events in unconscionable.
Rebekah Barnett did great work in her Dystopian Down Under stack reporting on Documents obtained under a Freedom of Information (FOI) request by Dr Melissa McCann on hidden AUS vax deaths
BREAKING: Australia’s drug regulator hid vaccine deaths from the public, concerned that ‘disclosure could undermine public confidence’
Excellent scholarship by Rebekah and thus I share and the work by Dr. McCann is stunningly helpful and informative in this devastation we are facing due to the mRNA gene technology platforms.
‘Documents obtained under Freedom of Information (FOI) request by Dr Melissa McCann reveal that the TGA appears to have hidden numerous vaccine-induced deaths from the public view, including those of two children.
Dr McCann shared the shocking revelation in her address at the Covid Vaccine Conference, hosted by Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party over the weekend in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. The event featured leading ICU physician Dr Pierre Kory, cardiologist and epidemiologist Dr Peter McCullough, and McCullough’s collaborator, author John Leake.
Addressing sold out crowds, Dr McCann shared the extraordinary lengths she had to go to to extract causality assessment documents relating to the TGA’s investigation of reported deaths after Covid vaccination, which were obtained under FOI request in a process that took six months. Dr McCann lodged the request after seeing an unexpectedly high number of patients coming through her clinic experiencing adverse events after immunisation (AEFIs). She also noticed a high number of serious AEFI reports in the in the DAEN database, including the reported death of a 14 year old in October 2021.
In her original FOI request, Dr McCann requested causality assessments for all of the reported deaths in the DAEN database. This request was denied due to the large scope, and in negotiation with the TGA, Dr McCann agreed to revise down the request to the 11 documents that were eventually handed over, of which 10 related to DAEN death reports.
When the documents were finally provided to Dr McCann in July 2022, she was dismayed to find that there were multiple reports that the TGA had assessed as causally linked to Covid vaccination, but, with the exception of one death, had not been reported in the TGA’s regular Safety Reports.
Following is a list of deaths that the TGA’s own reports assessed as causally linked to Covid vaccination:
21 year old female Case 729139, Document 1 Moderna booster. Fatal AEFIs, including myocarditis, cardiac arrest, renal impairment, femoral artery embolism, spinal cord infarction. Assessment outcome: ‘Causal’ * Initially determined as ‘unclassifiable’. VSIG (FOI 4049 Doc 5) updated the assessment outcome to ‘causal’.
9 year old Case 724023, Document 2 Pfizer vaccination. Fatal AEFI, cardiac arrest. Assessment outcome: ‘Causality assessment outcome’
24 year old female Case 718277, Document 3 Pfizer vaccination. Fatal AEFI, cardiac arrest. Assessment outcome: ‘Causality’
7 year old male Case 719838, Document 5 Pfizer vaccination. Fatal AEFI, cardiac arrest. Assessment outcome: ‘Causality’
21 year old male Case 644148, Document 6 Pfizer vaccination. Fatal AEFI. Assessment outcome: ‘? causality’
Of the above five listed deaths, only the first (21 year old female, case 729139) has been published in the TGA Safety Reports.1
The reported deaths are listed in DAEN, but the causality assessment is not visible to the public.
Australians have been falsely and misleadingly advised by the TGA and official health representatives, that out of 973 reported deaths, only 14 have been assessed as being causally linked to the Covid vaccines (13 following Astra Zeneca, 1 following Moderna).
The causality assessment reports released under FOI 3272 prove this statement to be a lie.
TGA Covid Vaccine Safety Report 15 December 2022
The November 2022 TGA Safety Report states that, “There have been no deaths in children or adolescents determined to be linked to COVID-19 vaccination.” But the assessment reports indicating the causal role of the Pfizer vaccine in the cases of the 7 and 9 year old children were released to Dr McCann in July 2022.
The causality assessment reports released under FOI 3272 prove this statement to also be a lie.
TGA Covid Vaccine Safety Report 3 November 2022
On reading the causality assessments provided to her under FOI 3727, Dr McCann felt both shocked and confused. “Why has this information not been provided to health professionals and the public who are making consent decisions? Children are continuing to be vaccinated and this is something that parents deserve to be able to weigh up,” Dr McCann told Dystopian Down Under.
It gets worse. Dr McCann was surprised to find that documents 1-10 out of a total 11 documents from FOI 3727 had not been uploaded to the TGA’s public disclosure log, per regular protocol. She emailed the TGA to query why documents 1-10 had been withheld from the disclosure log, and was advised, in a communication on 24 August 2022,
“The decision maker for this request decided not to publish documents 1-10 pursuant to section 11c(1)(a) of the FOI Act as they contain sensitive personal information about deceased persons. As you would appreciate, consultation with the families of the deceased was not considered appropriate, and, as such, consultation was not undertaken with those families. Further, the decision maker determined that disclosure of the documents could undermine public confidence and reduce the willingness of the public to report adverse events to the TGA.”
The TGA seems to have assumed that families of the deceased will not want to hear from them. On the contrary, Deb, mother of 21 year old Natalie (case 729139), told Jab Injuries Australia that the lack of contact from the TGA was, “disgraceful treatment of a grieving mother who could have made a meaningful contribution to their investigations.” Deb says that she has never been contacted by the TGA, and only discovered the causality assessment outcome of her daughter’s death via the TGA’s Safety Report (23 September 2022), which she accessed online.
Natalie, DAEN case number 729139
As for the TGA’s assertion that disclosure of the documents could undermine public confidence – one could very well argue the opposite case. Perceived lack of transparency drives public distrust. The last thing the TGA needs is public suspicion that they are burying vaccine deaths. Full transparency is the only way to create and maintain trust in public health. Dr McCann made this argument in a further communication, but the TGA’s decision against uploading documents 1-10 to the public disclosure log was final.
During this time, Dr McCann, in partnership with other concerned doctors, repeatedly wrote to the Health Ministers and Adjunct Professor John Skerritt of the TGA2to advise them of concerns about vaccine safety, and to call for immediate suspension of the vaccine rollout until an urgent review of adverse event reports could be undertaken.
Letter from Dr Melissa McCann to Health Minister Greg Hunt, 20 March 2022
These correspondences were met alternately with silence, obfuscation, or blanket assurances that the TGA was closely monitoring safety, and that the vaccines were safe and effective.
Letter from Adj. Professor John Skerritt to Dr Melissa McCann, 22 November 2021
Is this the tip of the iceberg? The TGA consistently reports that only 14 of the 973 reported deaths have been causally linked to vaccination. But the contents of FOI 3727 raise questions:
How can the TGA’s statement be true? The TGA’s own causality assessments provided in FOI 3727 indicate that there are at least four more deaths that TGA has causally linked to vaccination (two adults, two children) which remain unaccounted for in the official count of 14.
How many of the 959 (973-14) deaths that the TGA implies are not causally linked to vaccination have even been investigated? Are 900 reports ‘in progress’? How many have been determined as ‘not causally linked’? Dr McCann asked the TGA to state the number of causality assessment reports that had been completed, but her request was denied.
Dr McCann is concerned about the implications for public health and safety: “If everyone is working on the basis that all of these deaths have been investigated and have been determined as not causally linked, well we can’t be sure that that’s the case.”
For now, Dr McCann is turning her efforts to a Covid Vaccine Class Action, which is expected to file within the month. The Class Action has received over 350 expressions of interest, and the number is still growing.
“Hopefully this class action will force some transparency so that there will be more clarity around how adverse events are reviewed, and how many are likely to be linked to the vaccines,” says Dr McCann.
A proposed Covid Vaccine Class Action is calling for Australians severely injured by Covid vaccines to come forward. This proposed action will represent a group of more than 100 vaccine injured, including the deceased. The group behind the class action is…
the FBI with “problem code” flags, prompting outrage from former educators who lost their jobs over the mandate; what insanity, what invasion of privacy & targeting & punishing by NY government
“When the city puts these problem codes on employees who have been terminated because of their unconstitutional policies, not only do they have this flag in their files, but their fingerprints are sent with that flag to the FBI and the New York Criminal Justice Services, so it impacts their ongoing ability to get employment at other places,”
Trump wants Group Executions if He Retakes White House The former president wants to expand use of the death penalty, death by firing squad, by hanging, I love it! Once found guilty by court, YES!
That’s the question Donald Trump repeatedly asked some close associates in the run-up to the 2024 presidential campaign, three people familiar with the situation tell Rolling Stone.
It’s not an idle inquiry: The former president, if re-elected, is still committed to expanding the use of the federal death penalty and bringing back banned methods of execution, the sources say. He has even, one of the sources recounts, mused about televising footage of executions, including showing condemned prisoners in the final moments of their lives.’
Why has the CDC pretended this data, their own data, does not and did not exist? These results demonstrate that surviving a previous infection protects against a reinfection & related hospitalization
Let us see what the favorable optimal study did and said:
To examine the impact of primary COVID-19 vaccination and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection on COVID-19 incidence and hospitalization rates, statewide testing, surveillance, and COVID-19 immunization data from California and New York (which account for 18% of the U.S. population) were analyzed. Four cohorts of adults aged ≥18 years were considered: persons who were 1) unvaccinated with no previous laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, 2) vaccinated (14 days after completion of a primary COVID-19 vaccination series) with no previous COVID-19 diagnosis, 3) unvaccinated with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, and 4) vaccinated with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis.’
‘By the week beginning October 3, compared with COVID-19 cases rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, case rates among vaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis were 6.2-fold (California) and 4.5-fold (New York) lower; rates were substantially lower among both groups with previous COVID-19 diagnoses, including 29.0-fold (California) and 14.7-fold lower (New York) among unvaccinated persons with a previous diagnosis, and 32.5-fold (California) and 19.8-fold lower (New York) among vaccinated persons with a previous diagnosis of COVID-19. During the same period, compared with hospitalization rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization rates in California followed a similar pattern.
…These results demonstrate that vaccination protects against COVID-19 and related hospitalization, and that surviving a previous infection protects against a reinfection and related hospitalization. Importantly, infection-derived protection was higher after the Delta variant became predominant, a time when vaccine-induced immunity for many persons declined because of immune evasion and immunologic waning.’
is known. Extremely disturbing now in era of (Covid) vaccines is that there are sudden deaths with no explanation,” “Never accept someone who has taken the vaccine died & had death declared ‘unknown’
An urgent investigation was needed into the rise of so-called ‘sudden death syndrome’, a visiting cardiologist has told Australian audiences.
‘Dr Peter McCullough, speaking at sold-out events down the east coast of Australia this week, said the sudden increase in deaths from unknown causes demanded an urgent inquiry.
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
“When young people have a cardiac arrest, the cause — prior to Covid — is known. What is extremely disturbing now in the era of (Covid) vaccines is that there are sudden deaths with no explanation,” he said.
“We should never accept someone who has taken the vaccine died and then had the death declared ‘unknown’.”
The American heart specialist said he believed the vaccine was making people more susceptible to heart problems.
“It’s clearly something that needs to be investigated,” he said.
“In Australia right now there are two exposures – there’s both the virus and the vaccine. Now in Australia, for most people, they took the vaccine first and because it doesn’t work then they get Covid on top of it – so they’ve had multiple exposures of the Covid spike protein.
“We know that the vaccine exposes the body to way more spike protein than Covid illness.”
McCullough, whose speaking tour was sponsored by the United Australia Party, spoke at Covid-19 Vaccination Conference events in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.
The cardiologist rejected media descriptions of him as “controversial”
“There’s no controversy when it comes to medical truth, and there hasn’t been a single doctor in Australia who has challenged anything I’ve said,” he told Rebel News.
United Australia Party Senator Craig Kelly said mainstream media “refused to accept our money” to advertise the speaking tour.
But that didn’t stop the events quickly selling out.
UAP Senator Ralph Babet said: “We’ve got doctors who want to hear the truth, we’ve got people who are vaccine injured, but most importantly we’ve got people here who want to hear something that they haven’t heard for the last two of three years – the truth.”’
I am proud to announce my affiliation with The Wellness Company. My dear and esteemed colleagues Dr. Peter McCullough and Dr. Harvey Risch as well as Dr. Richard Amerling and Dr. Heather Gessling are also with The Wellness Company which provides telemedicine services for long-haul COVID, vaccine injury, and medical exemptions along with great all natural supplements and products that are fully aligned with our values. We are talking about scientifically researched supplements designed by leading physicians like Dr Peter McCullough. This support for The Wellness Company stems from the sub-optimal medical care and response that we experienced throughout the pandemic. It became apparent that there are many glaring gaps in our healthcare system and people were not properly treated. Thus, the pivot by us to support The Wellness Company. Take a stand against a broken healthcare delivery system and purchase a membership with the The Wellness Company, which directly funds our fight against medical tyranny. Click here The Wellness Company for more information.
Author Naomi Wolf, CEO of Dailyclout, talks to host Steve Bannon about the new report 56 proving that the Covid-19 vaccine causes deadly lesions on the lungs. Pathologist Arne Burkhardt
Naomi Wolf: Autopsies Revealed Catastrophic Lesions On Many Organs Likely Caused By Covid Vaccine; find Dr. Wolf’s updated research with her Daily Clout Research team on her substack as well as on Daily Clout.
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Daily Clout researchers must be praised for the tremendous work they are doing to inform America and the world. Steve Bannon must be praised for his relentless look at the damage from the mRNA gene injection. He stands apart.
The new Dailyclout report is based on “a presentation by a pathologist named Dr. Arne Burkhardt in Germany. Dr. Burkhardt and seven other international pathologists … did autopsies at the end of 2021… They autopsied 30 deceased people, and they did so at the request of their loved ones… The loved ones were not satisfied with the results of their first autopsies… These were people ranging from 28 years old to in their 90s…. What they found … is catastrophic lesions throughout the body in many many organs, blood damage, spleen, liver, brain, skin, testes.”
We will hold you to your word Pierre if you get there, we will help you pack your backs and your government if you lie; not saying you will, but if you do; we must ensure politicians DO NOT lie to us!
“Dataism” is the New Religion of AI and Transhumanism: Those Who Own and Control the Data Control Life
February 16, 2023 7:05 pm
Yuval Noah Harari is an Israeli professor in the Department of History at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is one of the leading technocrats today who promotes Artificial Intelligence (AI) and makes techno-prophecies about the future, claiming that AI is advancing so rapidly, that we are the last generation of homo sapiens, because transhumans will soon replace us. Harari makes it clear that “dataism” is the new religion that fuels AI, and he claims: “We are probably one of the last generations of homo sapiens. Within a century or two earth will be dominated by entities that are more different from us than we are different from neanderthals or from chimpanzees. Because in the coming generations, we will learn how to engineer bodies and brains and minds. Now how exactly will the future masters of the planet look like? This will be decided by the people who own the data. Those who control the data control the future, not just of humanity, but the future of life itself, because data is the most important asset in the world.” Yuval Noah Harari believes that one day we will be able to “hack humans”, because he believes that the human mind is no different than a computer, and our thoughts are simply “biochemical algorithms.” This is a religion, not science. It is based on a Darwinian biological view of life, which sees reality as simply the observations of the physical world, ignoring the human soul and spirit. In this new religion called “dataism,” you must surrender your data to the network, whether you want to or not, because refusing to share all the personal data of your life is “a sin.”
Bill Gates Wants to use Artificial Intelligence to Combat Conspiracy Theories
February 16, 2023 7:51 pm
That Borg-like greeting could be coming soon to the internet in the form of new AI overlords. In a recent chilling interview, Microsoft founder and billionaire Bill Gates called for the use of artificial intelligence to combat not just “digital misinformation” but “political polarization.” He is only the latest to call for the use of either AI or algorithms to shape what people say or read on the internet. The danger of such a system is evident where free speech, like resistance, could become futile. In an interview on a German program, “Handelsblatt Disrupt,” Gates calls for unleashing AI to stop certain views from being “magnified by digital channels.” The problem is that we allow “various conspiracy theories like QAnon or whatever to be blasted out by people who wanted to believe those things.” This is not the first call for AI overlords to protect us from ourselves. Last September, Gates gave the keynote address at the Forbes 400 Summit on Philanthropy. He told his fellow billionaires that “polarization and lack of trust is a problem.”
“A Shift Toward Statism: The US Establishment Doesn’t Want Domestic Chaos Anymore Because They’re In Control”
FRIDAY, FEB 17, 2023 – 10:31 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
A new ‘State of Statism’
We can debate the latest numbers. The Philly Fed flashed a recession warning, but US PPI data were hot, and initial jobless claims still show a very firm labor market. In Australia, the jobs report was likely much better than the weak headline suggested. Timiraos at the WSJ, who may be channelling the Fed, notes that January CPI and PPI lead economists to estimate the US core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, from +0.47% m-o-m (+4.4% y-o-y) to +0.55% m-o-m (+4.5% y-o-y) vs. 4.4% y-o-y in December.
The words we hear are unequivocal. The RBA’s Lowe just told Australian lawmakers the ‘lowest sustainable level of unemployment is in the low 4s’, and he didn’t think January jobs data were accurate as most firms still can’t find enough workers. While he stressed the need to be flexible, looking at the risks of not doing enough on rates and doing too much, he underlined: “This is the first test of a new reality that most central banks are going to face.” Prior to that, the FOMC’s Mester and Bullard stressed the best way to pass that test is to push rates higher – both talked about potential 50bps steps again. Before them, the ECB’s Lane said QT of €500bn spread over 12 quarters would only lower inflation by 0.15 percentage points and output by 0.2ppts, although there may be “non-linearities in the exit process.”(!)
What central banks’ deeds will look like remains to be seen, but it’s clear they are going to err on the side of hawkishness. The larger issue is what the collateral damage is, how sticky inflation proves, and what the new economic structure looks like after this unfolds. That involves looking forward via emerging trends. In my view, it also means looking beyond traditional market metrics. After all, if this is a metacrisis/polycrisis, why should we only focus on core PCE or unemployment as harbingers?
Looking forward more broadly, we can already see an *emerged* trend. The top headline in the Financial Times today is ‘Pentagon’s top China official to visit Taiwan amid rising bilateral tensions’, the first visit in 40 years. Yesterday, the same top headline was ‘Ukraine war pushes US to review arms stockpiles’. The Guardian reports ‘UK rehearsing economic fallout scenarios if China invades Taiwan’. The Asia Times says ‘Japan’s remilitarization aiming for more arms exports’. In Europe, the BBC says ‘Lukashenko warns Belarus will join Russia in war if attacked’. The SCMP carries analysis on ‘Prigozhin, Simonyan, Medvedev: the rise of the Russian hawk’ arguing whoever follows Putin is likely to be worse for the West. PBS says ‘Moldova’s new pro-Western government faces ‘crises’ amid Russia’s war in Ukraine’. Euronews notes ‘Serbian nationalists protest against Western plan to normalize ties with breakaway Kosovo’, the latter just marking 15 years of unilateral separation from Serbia, which still doesn’t recognise it. There are other similar headlines around the world.
However, one needs to look at key domestic trends too. In that light, our January 2019 report ‘The Age of Rage’ argued a wave of populism was about to sweep into ostensibly ‘apolitical’ institutions like central banks. Not long after, the Fed was talking about social justice as part of monetary policy. Looking back now, were such concerns part of the reason it lagged so badly in its rates response to inflation, even as radical fiscal policy became joined to radical monetary policy? Looking forward, you can see something different happening in politics and society that may be just as radical, if different.
We are already seeing a pushback against ESG from some. Moreover, we can arguably see a change in overall tone in some benchmark US establishment media. Indeed, my eye was caught by a series of tweets from @balajis that argue The New York Times “is transitioning from wokism to statism. Because the US establishment doesn’t want domestic chaos anymore. They’re in control. So you’ll see less riots calling for abolishing police, more funding for riot police. Less on toxic masculinity, more on troops for foreign wars…The Soviets had a term for this: left-deviationism. That is, it *was* possible to go too far left in the USSR. Revolution was good, then suddenly bad, once power had been consolidatedAnd we too have a term for it: woke. Chaos is less useful now that power is consolidated.”
Mirror image of what happened in China.After CCP consolidated power, they didn’t need zero COVID. After NYT consolidated power, they didn’t need maximum woke. pic.twitter.com/oTRcjt9J2q— Balaji (@balajis) February 16, 2023
This is not just (correct) history and (arguably) correct mapping of political-science theory onto the current US reality, but something that we can quantify – like core PCE or unemployment. Data scientist @DavidRozado, authored of ‘Prevalence of Prejudice-Denoting Words in News Media Discourse’ – it’s results look similar to the path of 2021-2022 US inflation. He now agrees with the NYT tone-shift hypothesis, and says: “Frequency of prejudice signifying words in US news media is decreasing. But there is a catch… I’m working on my updated analysis of this topic to be published shortly.” (A preview chart from that work looks like inflation hopes for 2023.) But what does any shift in words means for numbers and deeds? That’s what markets need to focus on.
Arguably, a shift towards statist order is being driven by chaotic geopolitics as much as chaos at home. Statism has lots of work to do to simultaneously deal with Western military weakness, polarised societies, and debt-soaked and bubble-laden economies.
Politically, statist order means ‘rally round the flag’, or ‘us vs. them’ rather than ‘us vs. us’. Or balloons and aliens all around us. Ironically, that means more geopolitical chaos, and so more need for statism.
Economically, statist order means industrial policy and protectionism. Fiscally, it cannot mean austerity because that doesn’t match expensive geopolitics and rallying round the flag. Monetarily, it means higher rates due to high inflation. Yet that clashes with expensive geopolitics and the flag. However, it cannot mean lower rates because that brings chaotic misallocation of capital and resources away from statist, geopolitical goals towards bubbles.
So, how do we square that circle? I have my own theory: higher rates for longer for the private sector *and* QE for the state, and capital controls as needed to get money where it is needed by the state.
You may disagree, but shifting words may lead shifts in key numbers, and key numbers will usually lead central bank deeds. They have already shown they can be politicized: we will just change how if we enter a more-ordered ‘State of Statism’.
Happy Friday!
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
SOUTH AFRICA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0628 DOWN .0037
USA/ YEN 134.72 UP 0.639/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.1854 DOWN 0.0019
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 25.01 PTS OR 0.77%
Hang Sang CLOSED UP 267.86 PTS OR 1.28%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.90% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 267.86 PTS OR 1.28%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 25.01 PTS OR 0.77%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .90%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 183.31 PTS OR 0.66%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1827.55
silver:$21.36
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 104.44 UP 65 BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.8677)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8745
TURKISH LIRA: 18.87 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.500…VERY DANGEREOUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.855% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.918 UP 2 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 104.03 UP 24 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 16.76 PTS OR 0.27%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 59.98POINTS OR 0.27%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 23.73PTS OR 0.31%
Spain IBEX DOWN 0.80POINTS OR 0.01%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 83.89 PTS OR 0.30%
WTI Oil price 76.16 12: EST
Brent Oil: 82.80 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 74.29/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 57/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.448
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.558 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0696 UP 0.0031 OR 31 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2045 UP .0071 or 71 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.535% UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.13 UP .047////YEN DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3468 DOWN .0005 (CDN dollar, UP 5 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 76.54
Brent OIL: 83.04
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 3.821%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS PTS to 3.879%
USA dollar index: 103.78 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.85
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 74.29 UP 0 AND 57/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 130/07 PTS OR 0.33%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 84.30 PTS OR 0.68%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.03 DOWN 0.14 PTS (0.69)%
GLD: $171.29 UP 0.54 OR 0.32%
SLV/ $19.84 UP 0,17 OR 0.86%
end)
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Crypto Rips, Bonds & Stocks Dip As Hawkish Sentiment Soars
FRIDAY, FEB 17, 2023 – 04:01 PM
‘Good’ macro news is ‘bad’ market news as this week saw macro surprise data soaring, crushing the ‘imminent recession means Fed pivot’ narrative. Combined with hawkish FedSpeak, the terminal rate spiked to cycle highs (above 5.30%)…
From Mester and Bullard to Williams and Barkin, every Fed Speaker was hawkish this week – ‘higher for longer’, ‘more work to do’, ‘no rate cuts this year’… etc… and while the stock market tried to shoot them down, there was too many of them…
Rate-hike odds rose across the March (12% odds of 50bps), May (95% odds of a 25bps hike), and June (60% odds of a 25bps hike)…
Source: Bloomberg
As the terminal rate has hawkishly shifted, so all the major asset classes have mean-reverted from their coordinated January shift… all that is apart from stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
But this week did see stocks give up the short-squeeze attempts during the week with all dropping into the red before a major gamma-squeeze dragged nasdaq green into today’s OpEx. The S&p was the biggest loser on the week followed by The Dow. Small Caps outperformed…
The S&P found support multiple times at the Put Wall but from around 1300ET into OpEx, puts were covered and calls bid (potentially written calls covered) lifting the market…
Skews continued to drive higher this week (downside protection demand dominating upside exposure)…
Source: Bloomberg
The week was dominated by the massive short-squeeze from Tuesday morning to Wednesday’s close…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, Utes outperformed on the week (defensive bid despite higher bond yields) while Energy stocks puked…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were also clubbed like a baby seal on the week with the belly underperforming. 30Y yields rose the least on the week with all TSYs relatively well bid today…
Source: Bloomberg
All of which has seen financial conditions start to tighten back towards The Fed’s monetary policy direction (though we note that financial conditions are still dramatically looser than even at the start of the year)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the week modestly stronger despite selling pressure that started today in the European session…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin rallied over 12% on the week, its 4th weekly rise in the last 6 weeks, topping $25,000 intraday – the highest since June 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum also soared this week, topping $1740 intraday, its highest since Sept 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Copper was the only major commodity to make gains this week while PMs were down modestly, oil uglyish, and NatGas puked…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was down for the 3rd straight week (after rising for 6 straight weeks), unable to get back above $1900…
WTI closed the week lower, with a $76 handle…
NatGas prices fell for the 8th week of the last 9, closing at the lowest since Sept 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Goldman notes investors’ sentiment has turned much more bullish since the start of the year, with surveys rebounding sharply from record lows. However, the latest data point suggests that positive sentiment might be hard to sustain.
While the current sentiment cycle could last a bit longer – our research shows that sentiment-driven reversals last on average a month and a half, but could extend up to three months – we think better macro data on both growth and inflation are needed to confirm the optimism markets have built up. We therefore see risks from the recent turn in sentiment and positioning, and we think it is likely to make markets more vulnerable from here, especially as it has come alongside a significant compression in risk premia.
Stocks continue to be bullishly decoupled from The Fed’s bank reserves…
Source: Bloomberg
That hasn’t ended well in the past.
EARLY MORNING TRADING//
end
Midmorning trading:
end
LATE AFTERNOON TRADING//GRAPH FORM//TIC
END
ii) USA DATA
USA leading economic indicators fall for the 10th straight month and weakest in 2 years
(zerohedge)
US Leading Economic Indicators Tumble For 10th Straight Month, Weakest In 2 Years
FRIDAY, FEB 17, 2023 – 10:15 AM
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its decline in January, dropping 0.3% MoM (vs -0.3% exp).
The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was average workweek at 0.18
The biggest negative contributor was ISM new orders at -0.28
This is the 11th straight monthly decline in the LEI (and 11th month of 13) – the longest streak of declines since ‘Lehman’ (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008)
“The US LEI remained on a downward trajectory, but its rate of decline moderated slightly in January,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board.
“Among the leading indicators, deteriorating manufacturing new orders, consumers’ expectations of business conditions, and credit conditions more than offset strengths in labor markets and stock prices to drive the index lower in the month. The contribution of the yield spread component of the LEI also turned negative in the last two months, which is often a signal of recession to come. While the LEI continues to signal recession in the near term, indicators related to the labor market—including employment and personal income—remain robust so far. Nonetheless, The Conference Board still expects high inflation, rising interest rates, and contracting consumer spending to tip the US economy into recession in 2023.”
Despite ‘soft landing’ hype, the LEI is showing no signs at all of ‘recovering’, hitting its lowest since Feb 2021…
And on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 6.03% (a smidge better than the revised 6.22% decline in Dec) – but still close to its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse…
Not a good sign for GDP.
Is this the cleanest view of The Fed’s tightening impact on the US economy?
END
Manheim used price prices reaccelerate as disinflation narrative falters
This is very inflationary!!
(zerohedge)
Manheim Used Car Prices Reaccelerate As “Disinflation” Narrative Falters
FRIDAY, FEB 17, 2023 – 10:52 AM
Inflation may be easing – at least until the next commodity price shock and/or war – but the path to the Federal Reserve’s official inflation rate target of 2% – at least until it’s unofficially or officially hiked to 3% – won’t be smooth. The latest evidence of the faltering “disinflationary” narrative has been the recent reacceleration of wholesale used vehicle prices.
One month after markets were stumped by a big jump in real-time (not the lagged CPI variant) used car prices, Cox Automotive reported that its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index which tracks the auction prices of wholesale used cars, increased again, this time by 4.1% from January in the first 15 days of February. According to Cox, “this was the largest February increase since 2009’s full-month 4.4% gain. The mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose to 234.0, which was down 7.3% from the full month of February 2022. “
The mid-month MUVVI rose to 234, down 7.3% compared with the full month of February 2022.
The index declined 15% following a peak in early 2022 at around 257. Since early November, the index has risen 7%.
As discussed in the recent CPI preview (and post-mortem), one of the main focuses of market watchers in months ahead will be the prices of used cars. We shared a note from Deutsche Bank earlier this week that outlined Manheim prices have a two-month lead on CPI Used Cars and Trucks index. The latest inflation report showed a slight decline in used vehicles, which means the next 2-3 months will see a sizable bounce in this category due to the lag. Sure enough, as shown below, the high-frequency, real-time Manheim index reveals that future CPI prints for the Used Cars and Trucks component will likely turn higher.
The silver lining: as per Goldman’s recent analysis, the new CPI methodology has slightly decreased the weight of used cars. This means that the impact of car prices going forward will be smaller, at the expense of OER/shelter, whose weight was increased, and which will be declining thus offsetting any potential inflationary impulse from autos.
… what is shocking is the eagerness of consumers to get in auto debt at a time when interest on car loans is one of the highest on record. Which leaves us with a ‘perfect storm’ as the economy worsens, and so will delinquencies.
On the other hand, as discussed yesterday, one reason why consumers continue to splurge and confound economists expecting a slowdown in spending, is because they still don’t have to make any student loan payments, hence a collapse in student loan delinquencies which naturally opens up space to take out other kinds of loans.
In light of this ongoing backdoor stimmy, it’s hardly surprising why both the Fed’s Bullard and Mester told reports yesterday that there is a compelling case for a 50bps increase at the next FOMC meeting in two weeks.
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Updates on the East Palestine disaster
(zerohedge)
East Palestine “Residents May Already Be Undergoing DNA Mutations,” Class Action Lawsuit Alleges
THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 03:05 PM
Norfolk Southern Railway CEO Alan Shaw published a letter Thursday that read, “We will not walk away, East Palestine.”
But already, officials from Norfolk Southern ditched a meeting last night with worried East Palestine, Ohio, residents who were only searching for answers after a freight train with 150 cars (20 of which were carrying hazardous materials) derailed in the small town, resulting in a chemical disaster.
Norfolk Southern is not off to a great start. There are increasing reports that residents are experiencing short-term health impacts after the derailment and controlled burn of toxic chemical vinyl chloride. Residents as far away as Pittsburgh are wondering about potential health impacts, according to local media, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
And then, there are long-term health implications with exposure to vinyl chloride, such as an increased risk of developing a rare form of liver cancer (hepatic angiosarcoma), liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma), brain and lung cancers, lymphoma, and leukemia.
Here’s Shaw’s full letter to the residents of East Palestine.
Nearly two weeks after the derailment, Norfolk Southern still hasn’t provided all information about what the train cars were carrying, New York Daily News pointed out.
At the meeting last night, East Palestine resident Kathy Dyke asked local officials and members of federal agencies:
“Why are they being hush-hush?”
“They’re not out here supporting, they’re not out here answering questions. For three days, we didn’t even know what was on the train.”
“I have three grandbabies,” she continued. “Are they going to grow up here in five years and have cancer? So those are all factors that play on my mind.”
Another woman questioned:
“If there’s nothing in the air and nothing in the water, why are people still getting sick?”
One man exclaimed:
“This whole town’s infected!”
Even the journalists covering the derailment are getting sick from the fumes.
On Thursday, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown wrote a letter to Governor Mike DeWine to declare a disaster in East Palestine.
“This is an unprecedented situation.
“Hundreds of families were forced to flee their homes and are now rightfully concerned about the potential long-term health risks associated with exposure to the toxic chemicals released” Brown said, adding DeWine should declare a disaster to “ensure that the community has all the resources they need.”
Meanwhile, a litigation wave has hit Norfolk Southern. The latest lawsuit alleges that efforts by the rail company and local and state authorities to burn off the dangerous chemicals made things worse and demanded punitive damages and medical monitoring.
“I’m not sure Norfolk Southern could have come up with a worse plan to address this disaster.
“Residents exposed to vinyl chloride may already be undergoing DNA mutations that could linger for years or even decades before manifesting as terrible and deadly cancers. The lawsuit alleges that Norfolk Southern made it worse by essentially blasting the town with chemicals as they focused on restoring train service and protecting their shareholders,” attorney John Morgan said in a statement, who was cited by local media WFMJ.
“At least five class action negligence lawsuits have now been filed by residents and business owners who were impacted by the fiery chemical train derailment,” The Independent said.
The photo above should’ve been on the front cover of every major newspaper nationwide — but it wasn’t. Wonder why?
Again I will say, all of this race nonsense started with Obama. Biden’s entire cabinet was appointed not on merit, but on race, sexual orientation. I hold the Divider-In-Chief responsible for this.
END
(ZEROHEDGE)
“This Is Disgusting:” Ohio Senator Finds ‘Toxic Chemicals’ In East Palestine Water
FRIDAY, FEB 17, 2023 – 09:25 AM
Earlier this week, residents of East Palestine, Ohio, were reassured that water is “safe to drink” after new Ohio EPA tests showed no detection of contaminants in raw water from several wells that feed into the town’s municipal water system. But many concerned residents and at least one senator don’t believe the government testing and have discovered what appears to be polluted creek beds.
Ohio Senator JD Vance visited East Palestine on Thursday, meeting with residents, town officials, and federal officials.
During a press conference, Senator Vance said Norfolk Southern Railway, the train operator responsible for the derailment, “has not the done the job on the cleanup.”
Senator Vance told reporters that after the train derailed and the controlled burn of toxic chemicals (including vinyl chloride), Norfolk Southern quickly replaced the railroad tracks through the town to allow trains to pass.
He said, “you can’t clean up and dig up an area if railroad tracks cover it… so the fact that they [Norfolk Southern] replaced the rails suggests they are more focused on reopening the railway than cleaning up this community.”
A reporter told the senator that officials suggested: “the air is clean and water is fine, but people should drink bottled water.” He continued by saying folks just don’t know what to believe.
Senator Vance responded, “the air doesn’t smell great to me.” He noted, “the air problem is a much shorter-term problem than the water problem.”
Another video shows the senator poking a creek bed with a stick in town only to stir up what appears to be toxic chemicals from the railcars.
Visited a local creek in East Palestine today. These waterways are still very polluted. It’s time for Norfolk Southern to finish the cleanup. Check this video out: pic.twitter.com/4lsHBmrMJj— J.D. Vance (@JDVance1) February 16, 2023
It’s not just Senator Vance discovering what appears to be toxic water around the town. Others have posted videos.
Even MORE proof that the EPA is LYING to the people of East Palestine.
Looks like @EPA, @fema, @nscorp, @MikeDeWine, @potus, and @PeteButtigieg are throwing East Palestine to the wolves. They’re not going to help. They’re just hoping it goes away & the locals will just shut up & drink the contaminated water.
Meanwhile, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine won’t declare a disaster for the town. The Governor’s office announced Thursday that the state is not eligible for Federal Emergency Management Agency assistance.
It seems like the government, Norfolk Southern, and corporate media want the East Palestine chemical disaster to be swept under the rug.
We pointed out yesterday that a wave of class action lawsuits against the railroad operator and government is just beginning.
END
This ought to be fun: it seems that the Pentagon shot down a $12 dollar Pico balloon with a 400,000 dollar sidewinder.
How stupid can the USA be: shooting down hobbyists’ balloons?
(zerohedge)
Illinois Hobby Club Believes Pentagon Shot Down Their $12 Pico Balloon
FRIDAY, FEB 17, 2023 – 08:46 AM
After the Pentagon dispatched fighter jets to shoot down unidentified objects on February 10, 11, and 12 utilizing heat-seeking AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles at over $400,000 a pop, President Biden belatedly admitted that they could just be harmless weather balloons
“The intelligence community’s current assessment is that these three objects were most likely balloons tied to private companies, recreation, or research institutions studying weather or conducting other scientific research,” Biden said Thursday. But now an Illinois-based hobby group which uses $12 balloons with ham radios for a cheap high-altitude hobby says the object shot down over Yukon Territory on Feb. 11 likely belongs to them. NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden also sees this as the likely scenario…
A report in Aviation Week profiles the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade (NIBBB) to learn that the hobby club’s silver-coated “pico balloon” was last picked up via radio signal on Feb. 10 at 38,910 ft. off the west coast of Alaska, and that it was projected to float over central Yukon territory the following day. It disappeared around the time and general location of the Feb.11 F-22 shootdown of an ‘unidentified object’, ordered by the White House, which grabbed media headlines.
The report began somewhat hilariously enough:
A small, globe-trotting balloon declared “missing in action” by an Illinois-based hobbyist club on Feb. 15 has emerged as a candidate to explain one of the three mystery objects shot down by four heat-seeking missiles launched by U.S. Air Force fighters since Feb. 10.
The Pentagon’s own briefings had described a “small, metallic balloon with a tethered payload below it” – and yet still, as the search for debris continues in inclement arctic weather, there’s been no confirmation of exactly what it was shot out of the sky.
According to a further description of the team of hobbyists’ balloon that went missing:
The descriptions of all three unidentified objects shot down Feb. 10-12 match the shapes, altitudes and payloads of the small pico balloons, which can usually be purchased for $12-180 each, depending on the type.
“I’m guessing probably they were pico balloons,” said Tom Medlin, a retired FedEx engineer and co-host of the Amateur Radio Roundtable show. Medlin has three pico balloons in flight in the Northern and Southern hemispheres.
What’s more is that the hobbyists are so convinced that the Pentagon has been taking pot-shots at mere pico balloons (very expensive pot-shots at that), that some have contacted multiple federal agencies to inform authorities, but apparently to no avail.
Below is an example of the type of transmitter, which is the “payload” dangling under the balloon, which accompanies the high-altitude flights:
“I tried contacting our military and the FBI—and just got the runaround—to try to enlighten them on what a lot of these things probably are. And they’re going to look not too intelligent to be shooting them down,” Ron Meadows, the founder of Scientific Balloon Solutions (SBS), told Aviation Week.
Behold the potential major “threat” which required advanced F-22 jets armed with Sidewinder missiles to be deployed last week…
The publication itself, based on what it learned about the pico balloons flying high over North American skies, attempted to alert the FBI, NORAD, the National Security Council (NSC) and the Office of the Secretary of Defense while seeking comment. However, they too were given the runaround.
“The FBI and OSD did not acknowledge that harmless pico balloons are being considered as possible identities for the mystery objects shot down by the Air Force,” wrote Aviation Week.
END
San Francisco Bay area housing market crashes with prices plunging 35%
(Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)
San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market Crashes, Prices Plunge 35% From Crazy Peak
In the first 10 months of Housing Bust 2 (now), the median price plunged a lot faster than in the first 10 months of Housing Bust 1 (2007-11)…
There better be a halfway decent spring selling season, which is supposed to already have started in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, because this is getting pretty bad, pretty fast. But it’s hard to imagine just how good the spring selling season can be amid countless reports of layoffs, working from home somewhere else, with big numbers being thrown around about how many people have left Silicon Valley and San Francisco. The City of San Francisco alone lost about 56,000 residents, or about 6.3% of its population, in the period of 2020 through 2022, according to Census data, even as about 12,000 new housing units were completed over the same period.
The median price in the nine-county Bay Area plunged by another 8% in January from December, by 17% year-over-year, and by 35%, or by $540,000, in 10 months from the crazy peak in March 2022, from $1.54 million to $1.00 million, according to the California Association of Realtors.
Sales of single-family houses in the Bay Area plunged by 37% in January compared to January last year. The sales plunge has been in the same year-over-year range for months.
Seasonally, January is generally the worst month of the year for the median price of sales that closed in January, reflecting deals that were negotiated in December. So there are hopes that this is going to turn around during the spring selling season that everyone is praying for.
But where is this prayed-for demand during the spring selling season supposed to come from? People are now worried about their jobs, and buying a still ridiculously overpriced home, as mortgage rates are once again close to 7%, is probably not the number one priority. In addition, there’s the fear of trying to catch a falling knife. The area has lost population. And amid layoffs and hiring freezes, not many people from elsewhere are now being brought in with promises of high salaries.
But the 35% plunge hasn’t done a huge amount of damage yet in the broader sense because the spike in prices leading up to it was so steep and so crazy that not many people actually bought homes at these crazy prices in 2021 and 2022. Most people who bought in 2019 or before – the vast majority of homeowners – are still above water.
In other words, the 35% plunge hasn’t even worked off the entire pandemic-free-money spike. But the illusions of sudden wealth have evaporated as fast as they’d appeared.
As you can see from the jagged line in the charts, median prices are volatile and they’re seasonal, and they can get skewed by the mix of what actually sells, etc. etc. So they need to be handled with care. But this plunge is nevertheless historic.
Blast from the past: Housing Bust 1 v. Housing Bust 2. During Housing Bust 1, which started in the Bay Area in mid-2007, the median price plunged by 59% in 21 months, from May 2007 ($789,250) through February 2009 ($321,110), when it hit bottom.
Ominously, during the first 10 months of Housing Bust 1, the median price plunged by only 23%, compared to 35% in the 10 months so far in Housing Bust 2. This chart is a blast from the past, Housing Bust 1 in all its glory:
The five big counties of the Bay Area.
San Francisco: The median price of single-family houses plunged 33%, or by $675,000, from the breath-takingly idiotic peak in March 2022, falling from $2.06 million to $1.38 million in 10 months. Year-over-year, the median price plunged 15%.
The median price in January was about even with January 2019. The first time that the median price hit $1.38 million was in February 2016. The spring selling season better be good:
Silicon Valley: San Mateo County: The median price of single-family houses plunged by 32% from the peak in April 2022, by $776,000 in nine months, from $2.40 million in April to $1.62 million in December. Year-over-year, the median price plunged by 19%.
This median price was nearly flat with January 2021 and was first seen in February 2018.
Silicon Valley: Santa Clara County (includes San Jose): The median price of single-family houses ticked up in January, but was still down 22%, or by $440,000, from the peak in April 2022, having dropped from $1.97 million to $1.53 million in nine months. Year-over-year, the median price was down 11%.
Alameda County (East Bay, includes Oakland): The median price of single-family houses plunged 31% from the peak in May 2022, or by $479,000, from $1.54 million to $1.06 million. Year-over-year, the median price was down 15%.
Contra Costa County (East Bay): The median price of single-family houses plunged 30% from the peak in April 2022, or by $313,500, from $1.05 million to $736,500. Year-over-year, the median price was down 11%.
Median time on the market in the Bay Area ballooned to 32 days in January before the property sold or was pulled off the market because it didn’t generate a deal. This was up from 28 days in December 2022, and from 12 days in January 2022.
So a good spring selling season – or at least not catastrophic – is now what everyone is praying for. In January, mortgage rates had dropped to near 6% and the stock market had jumped, but that’s already over. The daily measure of the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is already back over 6.75% according to Mortgage News Daily, amid renewed inflation fears and frustrated Fed-pivot hopes.
House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) says he has subpoenaed the CEOs of top U.S. Big Tech firms as part of Republicans’ ongoing investigation into the weaponization of the federal government.
Now, Jordan has sent subpoena requests to several major tech executives asking for documents and testimony.
“Today, House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan subpoenaed the chief executive officers of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft for documents and communications relating to the federal government’s reported collusion with Big Tech to suppress free speech,” Jordan’s office said in a statement emailed to the Epoch Times.
“The House Judiciary Committee has repeatedly attempted to engage with the five companies since last December,” the release continues. “Unfortunately, the companies have not adequately complied with our requests.”
Jordan was referencing a series of Dec. 14, 2022, letters his office sent to various tech executives.
The CEOs—Alphabet’s (Google) Sundar Pichai, Amazon’s Andy Jassy, Apple’s Tim Cook, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, and Microsoft’s Satya Nadella—have until March 23 to provide any communications between them and the federal government’s executive branch on the subject.
“Big Tech is out to get conservatives, and is increasingly willing to undermine First Amendment values by complying with the Biden Administration’s directives that suppress freedom of speech online,” Jordan wrote, in excerpts from the letter to the executives posted to his website.
“This approach undermines fundamental American principles and allows powerful government actors to silence political opponents and stifle opposing viewpoints,” he continued. “Publicly available information suggests that your companies’ treatment of certain speakers and content may stem from government directives or guidance designed to suppress dissenting views.
“Big Tech’s role in shaping national and international public discourse today is well-known. In some cases, Big Tech’s ‘heavy-handed censorship’ has been ‘use[d] to silence prominent voices’ and to ‘stifle views that disagree with the prevailing progressive consensus.’
“Because of Big Tech’s wide reach, it can serve as a powerful and effective partisan arm of the ‘woke speech police.’ Although the full extent of Big Tech’s collusion with the Biden Administration is unknown, there are prominent examples and strong indications of Big Tech censorship following directives or pressure from executive branch entities.
“These examples raise serious concerns about how and why tech companies suppress, silence, or reduce the reach of certain political speech and speakers. The collusion of Big Tech and Big Government to advance censorship undeniably undermines liberty and jeopardizes our country’s First Amendment values and protections.”
Jordan cited long-held concerns among conservatives that their viewpoints are disproportionately stifled on social media platforms through outright bans, removal of certain posts, and “shadow banning,” which dramatically reduce a person’s reach on most social media platforms.
President Donald Trump considered the issue a concern as early as 2019, and attempted at the end of his presidency to gut the legal liability protections currently enjoyed by Big Tech platforms.
With Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter and the release of documents from the platform’s previous management, it’s become clear that these concerns were well-founded, and have been proven that the firms were engaging in censorship of certain viewpoints.
Read more here…
END
He looks half dead!
Senator John Fetterman Checks Into Walter Reed Medical For Depression Days After Leaving Hospital
THURSDAY, FEB 16, 2023 – 07:20 PM
It was no sooner that Senator John Fetterman left the hospital after feeling “lightheaded” last week than he has checked back in to an institution. He has now checked himself into Walter Reed National Military Medical Center seeking treatment for clinical depression, according to AP.
His chief of staff, Adam Jentleson, said: “While John has experienced depression off and on throughout his life, it only became severe in recent weeks.”
Fetterman was reportedly evaluated on Monday by the attending physician of Congress, Dr. Brian P. Monahan, AP noted. It was Monahan who recommended inpatient care at Walter Reed.
His chief of staff added: “John agreed, and he is receiving treatment on a voluntary basis. After examining John, the doctors at Walter Reed told us that John is getting the care he needs, and will soon be back to himself.”
“After what he’s been through in the past year, there’s probably no one who wanted to talk about his own health less than John,” his wife, Gisele said on Twitter. Those sentiments were echoed by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, who aid Fetterman “is getting the help he needs”.
Recall Fetterman was also hospitalized after feeling “lightheaded” last week and had a stroke while running for election last year.
Prior to his election, Fetterman’s televised debate performance against Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz, had become a talking point due to his inability to articulate himself. Those who questioned Fetterman’s ability or health were labeled as “ableist”.
During the debate, Fetterman’s health became one of the first issues discussed. Fetterman supposedly, at the time, got a letter from a doctor giving him the “all clear for full duty” to work in office, but avoided the request of releasing his full medical records surrounding his stroke.
Additionally, as was noted last October, Fetterman had numerous members of the media running interference for him for the better part of the five months leading up to the debate. Several mainstream media reporters, like Kara Swisher, chimed in, claiming that Fetterman was recovering well from his stroke and hadn’t had any issues communicating.
People like Swisher stepped in to do damage control when other members of the media, like Dasha Burns, had the true courage to point out what were likely very inconvenient facts for her employer, MSNBC, and their political affiliation: that it “wasn’t clear” Fetterman was understanding their conversation at the time.
We genuinely hope Fetterman emerges from care for the better – but we’d be lying if we didn’t say we thought Democrats were due some of the blame for encouraging Fetterman through a rigorous Senate campaign despite his health issues.
The King Report February 27, 2023 Issue 6951Independent View of the NewsUS January PPI 0.7% m/m, 0.4% exp, Dec revised to -0.2% from -0.5%; 6% y/y, 5.4% consensus, Dec revised to 6.5% y/y from 6.2%; Food -1.0%, Energy +5.0%, Services ex-Trade/Trans/Ware +0.6%
US January Core PPI 0.5% m/m, 0.3% exp; Dec revised to 0.3% from 0.1%; 5.4% y/y, 4.9% consensus, Dec revised to 5.8% from 5.5%
Once again, we see worse economic data after revisions under Biden.
January Housing Starts 1.309m, 1.356m consensus; Permits 1.339m, 1.35m expected
The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook survey for February plunged to -24.3 from -8.9; -7.5 expected.
The NY Fed Business Activity index rose to -12.8 from -21.4, -17 expected. Wages jumped to 56.7 from 47; Prices Paid rose to 69 from 65.6; Prices Received increased to 33.7 from 29.8; Six-month business activity increased to 8.2 form -2.2.
Cleveland Fed President Mester: “… the incoming data have not changed my view that we will need to bring the fed funds rate above 5% and hold it there for some time… at our meeting two weeks ago, setting aside what financial market participants expected us to do, I saw a compelling economic case for a 50 basis-point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%…”
@GordonJohnson19: The @federalreserve is LOSING the fight against inflation. The Taylor Rule suggests the Fed Funds Rate should be at 9.13%, RIGHT NOW. It’s currently at 4.58%, and the target rate is somewhere around 5.15%. And, financial conditions ARE LOOSENING.
Household debt hit record $16.9 trillion last quarter, as consumers loaded up their credit cards Credit card balances increased nearly 6.6% to $986 billion during the quarter… The share of current debt becoming delinquent increased across nearly all debt types, with credit cards and auto loans showing delinquency transparency rates of 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively… https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/16/economy/us-household-debt-fourth-quarter/index.html
Thursday was Ground Hog Day for equities. Ugly fundamental news pushed ESHs and stocks lower. ESHs and stocks hit the daily low just four minutes after the NYSE open. The usual suspects aggressively bought the early ESH and stock tumble.
As we keep harping the Fed has conditioned extreme speculative behavior into the masses that will not be disabused easily. A shock & awe campaign is necessary; but Powell is no Volcker and the current Fed is littered with liberals and academics – a very pernicious mix!
ESHs and stocks surged higher from 9:34 ET until 11:00 ET. ESHs and stocks traded sideways until 12:22 ET; they rallied until 12:48 ET. After a 16-handle ESH decline, ESHs began another rally at 13:30 ET. The rally halted when ESHs got near the NYSE high. At 15:00 ET, ESHs and stocks sank because St. Louis Fed President Bullard said he advocated a 50bp rate hike at the February 1 FOMC Meeting.
Traders quickly bought the breakdown, creating a bottom at 15:05 ET. ESHs rebounded 8 handles in only 3 minutes! But Bullard then said, ‘he would not rule out a 50bp rate hike at the next FOMC Meeting.’ He also averred that the Fed risks a replay of the 1970s if it can’t lower inflation soon.
ESHs tumbled until 15:41 ET. Another rally commenced. Who cares about Fed rate hikes or negative fundamentals when over $1 trillion notional value of 0DTE (zero days to expiration) are trading daily? The rally ended at 15:54 ET. ESHs and stocks retreated into the close.
We wonder if the daffy Jerome Powell regrets his ‘the disinflation process has begun’ remark?
Positive aspects of previous session Once again, ESHs and stocks rallied after a down NYSE open Fangs sank led by Tesla (recall 362,758k cars for software programing error)
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds decline sharply, again ESHs sank on Mester early and Bullard late The odds of a 50bp rate hike at the March FOMC has increased sharply 0DTE will eventually generate a horrible event – then regulators & Congress will act The S&P 500 Index closed below 4100
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will it take to disabuse traders of behavior that was inculcated over many years?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4105.48 Previous session High/Low: 4136.54; 4089.49
@ FrogNews:Joe has a deficit problem brewing, he continues to spend like a drunken sailor, and his policies are reducing taxable income. Aside from the stupid way the government reports surplus as negative, we’re supposed to make money in January. It didn’t happen. (Treasury Table 1 at link) https://twitter.com/FrogNews/status/1624375813704384513/photo/1 … When joe fell short on tax revenue in January, it was clear his deficit numbers were wrong. Instead he pounded the table with bad data… CBO confirmed this yesterday. The CBO debt forecast is basically impossible. At current interest rates, all tax revenue will be used to service the debt in 10 years. Explain how a government can function then? https://twitter.com/FrogNews/status/1626182103351062528
Ohio residents suffering chemical spill furious after rail company skips town hall Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio, whose district includes East Palestine, spoke out about Norfolk Southern’s decision not to attend the town hall to address residents’ concerns. “People are angry. They came here for answers and they’re legitimately frustrated that the company that caused this accident is not here to be accountable,” … The railroad company… citing threats to employees’ safety as a reason why it would not be in attendance… https://t.co/qQFTgX9c2P
BBG: Norfolk Southern CEO Seeks to Calm Town’s Fury after Derailment “We are here and will stay here for as long as it takes to ensure your safety and to help East Palestine recover and thrive,” Shaw said in a letter… “We will not let you down.”
We’ve seen nothing from BlackRock’s Mr. ESG on the derailment despite BlackRock being the second largest shareholder of Norfolk Southern Corp.
@nicksortor: Back on the ground here in East Palestine. It’s been 13 days since the toxic train explosion, and the Biden admin is STILL REFUSING the people’s request for disaster relief aid through FEMA.
Tucker Carlson: East Palestine toxic chemical catastrophe is a failure at all levels Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania… announced that authorities had decided to set those chemicals on fire and that was a very good thing… Was it really a wise decision to light thousands of gallons of vinyl chloride on fire, releasing a World War I era bioweapon (Phosgene gas) into the air over a populated area?… So tonight, both DeWine and Shapiro are desperately trying to revise their previous statements about the so-called controlled burn. Both have now decided that the toxic mushroom cloud over East Palestine, the one they signed off on and endorsed on television, was actually a bad thing… According to Pete Buttigieg, Biden officials were on the scene, yet somehow, they never said a word about the mushroom cloud until pictures of it evoked outrage on social media and, of course, they didn’t. They didn’t even notice. It had nothing to do with equity or climate change… Animals in East Palestine are dying by the thousands… WOMAN: When you watch people that are investigating, they all have these giant hazmat suits on, but somehow, it’s safe for people to go back to these homes… https://t.co/WXl30HC8LP
@wsmartin218: Senator @JDVance1 challenges EPA Administrator Regan to drink the tap water in East Palestine, OH. “If the EPA Administrator wants to stand here and tell people that the tap water is safe…they should be willing to drink it.”https://twitter.com/wsmartin218/status/1626278591389474819
@JunkScience: This was sent to me as a NOAA image of the plume of particulate matter (PM) from the controlled burn at East Palestine OH. The PM plume has by now travelled and dispersed all over the Northeast and Canada.NOAA has shutdown access to this site. Why is that @NOAA? https://t.co/BA7VccqJHS
@alx: Pete Buttigieg seems to be minimizing the seriousness of the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio: “While this horrible situation has gotten a particularly high amount of attention, there are roughly 1,000 cases a year of a train derailing.” (If a GOP Transportation Sec said something this insensitive…) https://twitter.com/alx/status/1626315856656445440
@rawsalerts: Multiple authorities are responding to a massive train derailment outside of Detroit… multiple authorities are responding to a massive train derailment in Van Buren Township Michigan. Officials report that only one car in the train was carrying hazardous materials, which is reportedly showing no sign of leaking or damage at this time as authorities are asking people to avoid the area.
Newly released memos unmask secret deal between U.S. and Britain to hide info about COVID vaccine adverse events – “Judicial Watch announced today it received 57 pages of heavily redacted records from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) that show, just two days prior to FDA approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, a discussion between U.S. and UK health regulators regarding the COVID shot and ‘anaphylaxis,’ with the regulators emphasizing their ‘mutual confidentiality agreement,'” the press release reads… https://t.co/WkrprsEOzb
@EthicalSkeptic: There’s been no CDC Wonder update since 17 Dec 2022 data (3 weeks late). This is critical in checking the MMWR Underlying Cause of Death data for accuracy and drilling down as to the makeup of excess death trends. Let’s hope the CDC releases this detailed database update soon.https://t.co/RMf0bjBIr9
@DowdEdward: Replying to @EthicalSkeptic: I have been focusing on group life claims above excess for now as this elite group should not be dying. I focus on millennials because they should not be dying. That age group was 23% excess in Q2 2022. I am being told it was same in Q3 and may accelerate in Q4. Numbers soon.
Bloomberg (@business): Zantac was forced off the market in 2020. Hundreds of documents show how the heartburn drug’s maker didn’t share evidence of those risks for decadeshttps://t.co/bxpHnnC5QI
Today is February expiry and the Friday before the Presidents’ Day holiday weekend. Mester and Bullard thwarted the expiry manipulation and the daily scheme involving 0DTE options. The usual suspects (small traders) will buy options that expire today because they are conditioned to do so.
The entrenched convention Street view on rate hikes has been shattered. Does the increased prospect for a 50bp rate hike on March 22 induce operators and investors to sell stuff and thwart the hoped for upward expiration day manipulation? If the big boys & girls sell stuff, will the action generate momentum selling and gamma to death the February put shorts? ESHs are -7.50 at 20:30 ET.
Expected economic data: Jan Import Prices -0.1% m/m, Exports -0.2%; Jan LEI -0.3%; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 8:30 ET, Fed Gov Bowman 8:45 ET
@alx: BIDEN: “We don’t know yet exactly what these three objects were but nothing right now suggests that they were related to the Chinese spy balloon program… or from any other country… these three objects were most likely balloons tied to private companies, recreation, or research institutions studying weather or conducting other scientific research…” https://twitter.com/alx/status/1626302810223509505
@simonateba: “Give Me A Break!” President @JoeBiden blasts journalists, laughs at reporters for asking him questions on Chinese spy balloon and other flying objects, then walks away. WATCH.
Illinois hobby club (Ages 11+) fears its balloon was shot down by the USAF The Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade’s (NIBBB) silver-coated, party-style “pico balloon” reported its last position on Feb. 10 at nearly 40,000 ft. off the west coast of Alaska. Projections showed that the object would be floating over the central part of the Yukon Territory on Feb. 11 – the same day a Lockheed Martin F-22 shot down an unidentified object in the general area… Small pico balloons range between $12 and $180 and are naturally buoyant above 43,000 ft… https://www.foxnews.com/us/illinois-hobby-club-fears-balloon-shot-down-usaf-report
China President XI must be laughing uncontrollably! The USAF used a $400k missile to takedown a balloon that costs between $12 and $180! Senior Democrats’ Private Take on Biden: He’s Too Old High-level Democrats are rallying to President Biden’s reelection, not because they think it’s in the best interest of the country to have an 82-year-old start a second term but because they fear the potential alternative: the nomination of Kamala Harris and election of Donald Trump… https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/senior-democrats-private-biden-too-093000010.html
Dem Sen. (PA) John Fetterman has checked himself into Walter Reed Hospital for clinic depression.
@seanmdav: Every person who pushed this man into this job should be ashamed. He needed to recover from a severe stroke, not be dragged into a campaign by soulless apparatchiks who viewed him as little more than a convenient political prop. He’s clearly a victim of power-hungry monsters.
@paulsperry_: MAKE NO MISTAKE: Jimmy Biden is both the mastermind and the muscle behind the Biden shakedown racket. Hunter is just the fast-talking front man, more or less a patsy in the operation.
GOP Rep (GA) Marjorie Taylor Greene @mtgreenee: Nikki Haley is just another George (or Jeb!) Bush.She is weak on the border, doesn’t want a wall, claimed “Legal Immigrants are more patriotic than most Americans these days,” and she defended Obama when Pres. Trump criticized his terrible open-borders policy. And Nikki Haley refused to support a transgender bathroom bill to protect children. If we wanted a “Bush in heels,” Republicans would vote for Liz Cheney.
Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene calls Nikki Haley ‘Bush in heels’ as former governor enters 2024 racehttps://t.co/7PED6AoqTB
Ex-Barclays (& JPM) exec Jes Staley, Jeffrey Epstein emails revealed: ‘Say hi to Snow White’ “That was fun. Say hi to Snow White,” Staley emailed Epstein in July 2010, according to filings on Wednesday with the US District Court in Manhattan… “What character would you like next?” Epstein replied. “Beauty and the Beast,” Staley allegedly responded, to which Epstein replied: “Well one side is available,” according to the filing… https://trib.al/vHkoM9L
Dark powers are calling Seymour Hersh a “has been” writer and warning he’s not to be taken seriously. Everyone else in the world is taking Pulitzer Award winning Hersh and his claim the U.S. blew up the Nord 2 pipeline late last year. Russia wants an investigation and so dose China and Germany. This could spell the end of NATO as in over. China, Germany and Russia are all calling for a deep investigation into the Nord sabotage. It may also bring very big damage claims against the U.S. for an act of terror. If this is proven true (and I think it will be), it shows how desperate, incompetent and out of control the Biden Administration is. Cheating incompetent people into office has negative consequences.
Clif High predicted many months ago that the CV19 bioweapon /vax would “go through Hollywood like a scythe.” The death of Raquel Welch is a marker on the road to the CV19 bioweapon perdition. Welch’s agent said she died “after a brief illness.” Is “brief illness” a new fatal disease or is it the new term for “died suddenly”? Most of Hollywood was forced to get the bioweapon/vax in order to work with SAG/AFTRA contracts. High also said 19 of 20 Democrats took the injections, and they were what he called the “true believers.” The rest of the injected fell for a masterpiece of propaganda. Get Ivermectin now. It may save your life.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hot for January and dashed the hopes of that Fed rate cut you keep hearing about. Consumer Prices (CPI) recently came in at an unexpected 6.4% rate too. That inflation rate is much higher than the 2% the Fed has been shooting for. Now, key Fed presidents are saying they are going to keep raising interest rates, and they will push for a ½% rise in the Fed Funds Rate at the March meeting. Implosion, deflation, raising and wrecking here we come.
There is much more in the 43-minute newscast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 2.17.23.
(Video will play when it is finished processing on Rumble.)
After the Wrap-Up:
Inventor and scientist Wesley Warren will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. He is the inventor of the “CarryiOn” air purifier. Warren invented a “first-of-its-kind portable USB-powered purifier that uses bi-polar ionization to clean the air and sanitize surfaces. It doesn’t just trap germs, it kills them.” This is technology the Deep State does not want the common man to have. Hear his amazing story and struggle in bringing this to market.
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