FEB 24/ANOTHER RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $9.10 TO $1810.45//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 46 CENTS TO $20.84//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $28.35 TO $912.65//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $26.25 TO $1405.95//COVID UPDATES: DR PANDA/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA MAJOR UPDATES RE CHINA’S PEACE PLAN//UPDATES ON EAST PALESTINE DISASTER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 7 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2 661 C JP MORGAN 12 737 C ADVANTAGE 17
TOTAL: 19 19 MONTH TO DATE: 15,055
JPMORGAN STOPPED 12/19
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT: 19 NOTICES FOR 1900 OZ or 0.0590 TONNES
total notices so far: 15,055 contracts for 1,505,500 oz (46.827 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 23 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 115,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month :889 for 4,445,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 473.900. MILLION OZ (CORRECTED)
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 749 CONTRACTS TO 124,7276AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.32 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE NOW COMING CLOSE TO OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 124,080 OI CONTRACTS RECORDED FEB 22/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.32). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 691 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 6.225 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1440 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP// NEW TOTALS STANDING = 4.45 MILLION OZ + 6.225 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 10.675 MILLION OZ//// V) GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 163
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 days, total 16,218 contracts: OR 81.090 MILLION OZ . (954 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 81.090 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 81.090/ MILLION OZ/INITIAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 749 WITH OUR $0.32 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1440 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 0.54 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP = NEW STANDING: 4.45 MILLION OZ + 6.225 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 10.675 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 854OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 23 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 115,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1740 CONTRACTS TO 424,276 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 231 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1740 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $13.05 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 6800 OZ //NEW STANDING: 47.421 TONNES//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $13.05 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1118 OI CONTRACTS (4.196 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2858 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 424,507
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1119 CONTRACTS WITH 1740CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2858 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1118 CONTRACTS OR 4.196 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2858 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1740) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1349 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 6,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :
43,592 CONTRACTS OR 4,359,200 OZ OR 135.58 TONNES 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2564 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 135.58 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 135.58/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.83% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 135.58 TONNES/INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 749 CONTRACTS OI TO 124,545 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 124,080 CONTRACTS FEB 22/2023.
EFP ISSUANCE 1440 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 1440 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1440 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 749 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1440 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 691 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.477 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.32 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.32 PTS OR 0.62% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 341.31 PTS OR 1.68% /The Nikkei closed UP 349.16 OR 1.29% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UO 0.27% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.9438 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9593// /Oil UP TO 76.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 82.72 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1740 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 424,276 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.05.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2858 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2858 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2858 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1118 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2858LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 1740 CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED (WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $13.05). WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (47.421)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.421 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $13.05) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1118 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 4.196 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.219 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 6800 OZ OR 0.2115 TONNES//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 47.421 tonnes … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $13.05.
WE HAD -231 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1118 CONTRACTS OR 111800 OZ OR 3.477 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 162,153// //poor
final gold volumes/yesterday 187,014/// poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //FEB 24//
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
15,055 notices 1,505,500 46.827 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 3
i) out of Delaware 321.51 oz 10 kilobars
ii) Out of HSBC: 17,235.966 oz
iii) out of JPMorgan: 27,661,647.597 oz
total withdrawals: 41,169.523 oz real gold except the 10 kilobars from Delaware
in tonnes: 1.28 tonnes
Adjustments; 1
dealer to customer Brinks: 96,453.000 oz (3000 kilobars)
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 210 contracts having LOST 121 contracts. We had 189 notices
filed on Thursday so we gained 68 contracts or an additional 6800 oz will stand searching for metal at the comex
March gained 139 contracts to stand at 2168.
April lost 3652 contracts down to 328,692
We had 19 notice(s) filed today for 1900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 19 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer notice(s) was (were) stopped 12/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account 3 and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (15,055 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEBRUARY 210 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 19 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,524,600 OZ OR 47.421 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of February.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:
No of notices filed so far (15,055 x 100 oz+ 210 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (19)x 100 oz} which equals 1,524,600 oz standing OR 47.421 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 47.421TONNES. SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,661.647.597 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 10,879,594.431 (338,40 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,782,053.166 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,100,138 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283.05 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
FEB 24/2023//INITIAL. SILVER CONTRACT FOR FEBRUARY
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
741,767.446 oz
CNT Delaware Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,174,035.328 oz Loomis JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
23 CONTRACT(S) (115,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts (nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
889 contracts (4,445,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 2 deposits into the customer account
i)Into JPMorgan: 574,461.408 oz
ii) Into Lomis: 599,533.92 oz
Total deposits: 1,174,035.328 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 147.741 million oz/288.392 million =51.22% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) Out of Manfra 625,136.126 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 110,660.100 oz
iii) Out of Delaware: 5971.220 oz
Total withdrawals; 741,767.446 oz
adjustments: 0
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.873MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 288.392 million o
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB/2023 OI: 23 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 3 CONTRACT(S.).
WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX
March LOST 11,533 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 17,487 contracts. WE HAD TWO MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 28.
April GAINED 71 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 271.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:23 for 115,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 102,765// excellent//rollovers
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 91,033 contracts ( very good//rollovers)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 889 x 5,000 oz = 4,445,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(23) and the number of notices served upon today 23 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month:889 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB 23 – number of notices served upon today (23) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 4.45 million oz + PREVIOUS 6.225 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 10.675 MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917/32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES
FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES
FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 917.32 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 483.900 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Does Gold Really Preserve Purchasing Power? The Case Of The High-End Suit
One of the characteristics of gold is that it preserves wealth in a world of constantly devaluing fiat currency.
Put another way, it preserves your purchasing power over time.
If you hold onto dollars for several years, they will buy less stuff at the end of that time period than they did at the beginning. This is especially true when we have rapidly rising prices as we do today. But even when inflation is “under control,” Federal Reserve policy is to devalue the dollar by 2% every year.
It simply doesn’t make sense to hold onto dollars for any length of time.
We can demonstrate this in a tangible way by pricing a good or service in gold and examining the change in price over time.
As an example, let’s consider a high-end men’s suit.
In 1900, the average price of a high-end men’s suit was around $35.
At the time, the price of gold was set at $20.67 per ounce. That means a high-end suit priced in gold would have cost around 1.7 ounces of gold.
Today, the average price of a high-end suit is around $2,000.
Obviously, prices vary depending on the brand, region and other factors, but this provides a fair average. At the time I’m writing this, the price of gold is around $1,840 an ounce. I’ll use $1,800 for this calculation to keep it simple. That means a high-end suit priced in gold today costs a little over 1.1 ounces of gold.
As you can see, the price of a suit in gold has dropped a little over 35% since 1900. This is what you would expect given advances in technology and productivity. But priced in dollars, the price of a high-end men’s suit has increased by 5,614.3%.
Looking at it another way, if you had stuffed $41.34 under your mattress in 1900, today you might be able to buy a couple of Polo shirts if you find a deal. But if you had bought two 1-ounce gold coins and stuffed those under your mattress in 1900, today you’d be able to buy a fancy suit and have about $1,600 left over.
Of course, the price of gold fluctuates day to day, month to month, and year to year. In some years, the price of gold even falls. But over time, it has historically maintained its purchasing power even as fiat currencies lose buying power year after year.
Added to the fact that it carries no counterparty risk, gold is an excellent way to safely preserve wealth and mitigate risk in your portfolio.
end
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
END
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Agustin Carstens, head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), believes the battle between cryptocurrency and fiat currencies has come to an end, with the latter emerging as the winner. Fiat currency refers to money that has legal tender by government decree.
“That battle has been won … A technology doesn’t make for trusted money,” Carstens said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.
“Only the legal, historical infrastructure behind central banks can give great credibility” to money, he added.
Carstens is anticipating a “strong statement” from the G20 nations for stronger regulation on digital assets, pointing out that crypto as a financial activity can only exist “under certain conditions.”
Castens’ statements come after cryptocurrencies crashed over the past year, with Bitcoin – the most valuable cryptocurrency in the world – down by around 38 percent. After hitting a 2022 peak of around $47,450 in March, Bitcoin was trading at $23,700, as of Feb. 22, up around 60% from its Nov 2022 cycle lows.
The crash in cryptocurrencies is pegged on multiple factors. For one, rising interest rates made holding cash much more attractive than investing in risky and volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.
The crash of the LUNA coin in May added to the decline. At one point, LUNA was ranked as the seventh biggest cryptocurrency in the world. But following an unsustainable business model and other issues, LUNA declined by 96 percent in a single day in May 2022.
Confidence in the crypto market fell further in November when FTX, one of the largest crypto exchanges at the time, filed for bankruptcy after concerns about the company’s balance sheet and subsequent withdrawals triggered a liquidity crisis.
Flaws of Cryptocurrencies
A report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September 2022 that was co-authored by Carstens outlines three flaws that prevent cryptocurrencies from acting as a “sound basis for the monetary system.”
First is that cryptos lack a “sound nominal anchor.” Cryptocurrencies themselves are highly volatile.
Meanwhile, stablecoins, a type of crypto where its value is pegged to an asset like the U.S. dollar, “borrow credibility from real money issued by banks.”
Second, fiat money is anchored in a trusted institution like a central bank that guarantees the stability of the currency as well as the final settlement of transactions and their safety.
Crypto does not have such centralized government-level guarantees.
Third, the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies means that it relies on incentives to anonymous validators to confirm transactions in the form of rents and fees.
This prevents scalability and results in congestion.
“For example, when the Ethereum network (a blockchain widely used for DeFi applications) nears its transaction limit, fees rise exponentially. As a result, over the past two years, users have moved to other blockchains, resulting in growing fragmentation of the DeFi landscape,” the report notes.
DeFi is short for decentralized finance.
National Risks
In October last year, the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) issued a warning that digital assets like cryptocurrencies could essentially undermine the financial stability of the country.
Despite the distributed nature of crypto asset systems, operational risks can arise due to the concentration of key services or from vulnerabilities linked to the distributed ledger technology on which the assets rely, the agency stated.
“Crypto-asset activities could pose risks to the stability of the U.S. financial system and emphasizes the importance of appropriate regulation, including enforcement of existing laws. It is vital that government stakeholders collectively work to make progress on these recommendations,” the report warned.
In a blog post on Jan. 27, the White House cited dangers from cryptocurrencies, including potential financial losses, fraud, and the empowerment of America’s rivals.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan had placed cryptocurrencies on the administration’s radar in June 2021 following the ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline in May that year. Colonial was forced to pay the hackers 75 Bitcoins in ransom, which amounted to $4.4 million at the time.
In June 2021, former president Donald Trump had also indicated that he was not a fan of Bitcoin, pointing out that it was competing against the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the world.
* * *
[ZH: In response to all that projection, ignorance, and hyperbole, we paraphrase from the bard himself (for added credibility, of course): “the fat man whose salary depends on fiat’s dominion doth protest too much, wethinks”...]
end
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9438
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9593
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.32 PTS OR 0.62%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 341.31 PTS OR 1.68%
2. Nikkei closed UP 349.16 PTS OR 1.29%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.91 Euro FALLS TO 1.0567 DOWN 31 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.4999!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 135.75/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.506%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.381%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.545…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.322//(ITALY WORSE THAN GREECE?)
3j Gold at $1816.50//silver at: 21.02 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 05/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 76.05//
3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 135.75/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, REMAINS AT .4999% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9366–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9896well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.912% UP 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9092 UP 3 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!
UK 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7306 UP 4 BASIS PT
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,88…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.650% UP 6 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Slide With All Eyes On PCE Inflation
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 08:04 AM
US index futures reversed Thursday’s rebound, and dropped as investors braced for data that may show accelerating inflation in the world’s largest economy. European stocks erased an earlier gain, while Asian equities fell on a quiet day for global markets. Contracts on the S&P 500 slipped 0.6% while those on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7% by 7:45a.m. ET. Friday sees the release of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is expected to show acceleration amid robust income and spending growth. The dollar rose amid concern over disappointing earnings and geopolitical tensions, and as the Yen tumbled after the confirmation hearing of Ueda’s proved to be far less hawkish than some expected.
In premarket trading, Beyond Meat jumped after its fourth-quarter net revenue topped analyst expectations, Boeing slipped after the planemaker paused deliveries of its 787 Dreamliner due to a documentation issue although analysts said they expect this to be a short-term issue, noting that it was due to non-compliance with paperwork. Warner Bros Discovery shares fell 5% in premarket trading on Friday after the parent of TNT, CNN and other TV networks reported quarterly sales that came in below analysts’ estimates. While the advertising market remains challenging, the worst of the merger integration period is behind them, analysts say.
Warner Bros Discovery fell after reporting quarterly sales that missed analysts’ estimates. Alibaba and NetEase lead a decline in US-listed Chinese stocks, with both internet companies’ results failing to offer a fresh boost as the rally spurred by China’s reopening wears off. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Block rose as much as 8.2% in premarket trading on Friday after the digital payments company formerly known as Square reported fourth-quarter profit that beat estimates. Analysts noted that the company’s pledge to better manage its operating cost growth will be welcomed by investors.
Farfetch shares gain 8% in US premarket trading after the specialty online retailer reported fourth-quarter revenue that beat expectations. Analysts were broadly positive on the reiterated guidance for 2023, noting that partnerships with Ferragamo, Reebok and Neiman Marcus offered tailwinds for the financial year.
Opendoor Technologies fell 5% in premarket trading on Friday after KeyBanc Capital Markets said the data-driven home-flipper faces limits on how fast it can buy and sell homes.
Floor & Decor gained 5% in extended trading after reporting adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that topped the average analyst estimate. The flooring retailer’s annual forecasts for sales and profit trailed analysts’ expectations.
Nektar Therapeutics plummeted 29% in extended trading after saying the Phase 2 study of rezpegaldesleukin in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus did not meet the primary endpoint.
After hot prints on consumer and producer prices, a high reading in today’s PCE report could weigh on markets. The S&P 500 is headed for a third week of declines, with traders taming their optimism about the outlook for the economy as Fed officials promise further rate hikes to subdue soaring inflation.
“In the context of an inflation shock, a global energy crisis and the fastest rate-hike cycle in history, we have to assume that with a time lag there will be an economic consequence,” Sonja Laud, chief investment officer at Legal & General Investment Management, said on Bloomberg Television.
But central banks’ determination to take rates for higher for longer is not their only worry: decelerating growth, sluggish corporate performance, geopolitical tensions from Russia to North Korea, and centralization of power in China all complicate the investment landscape.
“Investors worry that this unexpected strength in the US economy, coupled with a steady reopening of the Chinese economy, will fuel further inflation which would lead the Fed to pursue a more aggressive tightening cycle,” said Geir Lode, the head of global equities at Federated Hermes. “Looking ahead, we see mixed signals: leading economic indicators continue to point to a recession, but lagging economic indicators show no signs of weakness, yet.”
European equity indexes faded earlier gains, with outperformance in the construction, utility and energy sectors while chemicals and travel lagged. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.1% after gaining 0.3%, but the DAX falls 0.6% after data showed the German economy contracted more than previously thought in the fourth quarter. BASF shares slide as much as 6% after the global chemicals giant halted share buybacks and gave an outlook that analysts deemed as muted. Here are the biggest European movers:
Saint-Gobain shares rise as much as 6.3%, the most since March 2022 with analysts saying the French building materials group’s results and margin guidance should provide some confidence
Embracer gains as much as 4.1% after the video-game maker said it plans to collaborate with New Line Cinema and Warner Bros. Pictures on feature films based on The Lord of the Rings
Jupiter Fund Management shares jump as much as 15%, the most since March 2020 after the UK investment manager’s results provided a rare batch of good news
Endesa gains 1.9% after the Spanish utility increased its 2022 dividend and reported full- year net income that beat the average analyst estimate
Elekta shares surge as much as 11% after the Swedish medical technology firm reported third-quarter earnings that strongly beat expectations
Accor shares jump as much as 4.5%, reaching the highest since May 5, after Stifel upgrades the French hospitality company to hold from sell, seeing a more attractive risk/reward
Sopra Steria shares rise as much as 4.7%, hitting levels unseen since 2018, in a second day of gains after the French IT services company reported profit for the full year that beat estimates
IAG falls as much as 4.1% after the parent of British Airways gave an outlook that failed to cheer investors after the stock’s 33% jump ahead of earnings
Valeo shares fell as much as 6.6% after the manufacturer of car parts published a free cash flow guidance which fell below analysts’ expectations
Earlier in the session, Asia’s stock benchmark dropped, heading for a fourth-straight weekly loss, as disappointing tech results dragged down China’s equity market and investors remained vigilant before the release of key US economic data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 0.7%, reversing earlier gains. Stocks in Hong Kong continued to drop after entering a technical correction Thursday; a gauge of Chinese technology stocks listed in Hong Kong tumbled 3.3%. NetEase Inc. slumped after a profit miss, while Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. fell as analysts remained cautious about its sales growth prospect. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping was set to bring decision-making of the financial system further under his control with the revival of a powerful committee.
“A lot of the momentum in China has come in so it’s important to be discerning and look for the quality stocks that are more reasonably valued,” Julie Ho, an Asia ex-Japan equities portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television. Japanese stocks advanced as Bank of Japan Governor nominee Kazuo Ueda said current policy easing was appropriate. He spoke at a parliamentary hearing in the approval process for his appointment. South Korean stocks slid as foreign investors turned net sellers for the first week this year amid concerns over the impact of tighter global monetary policy on the nation’s tech-heavy equity market. Malaysian stocks pared losses ahead of the annual budget presentation. Traders in Asia are awaiting US inflation numbers due today, after mixed data Thursday muddied the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Gains in Asian stocks have stalled this month amid renewed worries of US policy tightening and a lack of positive catalysts for heavyweight Chinese shares. The MSCI Asia gauge is down almost 2% this week.
Japanese stocks rose as Bank of Japan governor nominee Kazuo Ueda backed continued easing in his confirmation hearing in parliament. Ueda said it will still take time to hit the central bank’s target for stable 2% inflation, adding that continuing with stimulus is appropriate for now. “Comments by Ueda came as no surprise — since he didn’t signal policy would change abruptly, the market is relieved,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. “Ueda is taking taking a very cautious stance, which is very positive for the stock market.” The Topix rose 0.7% to close at 1,988.40, while the Nikkei advanced 1.3% to 27,453.48. Banks dropped while real estate stocks rose. Tokyo Electron contributed the most to the Topix gain, gaining 7.1%. Out of 2,161 stocks in the index, 1,571 rose and 507 fell, while 83 were unchanged.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 7,307.00, as all sectors aside from mining advanced. Banks and industrials boosted the benchmark most. Still, the benchmark caped its third straight weekly loss, dropping 0.5%. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 11,905.
Key stock gauges in India posted their biggest weekly drop in eight months as investors continue to avoid riskier assets globally on the prospect of higher interest rates. Most stocks related to the Adani Group declined on Friday as the monthlong selloff in the conglomerate’s shares neared $150 billion. Selling in shares of the ports-to-power conglomerate has continued despite its efforts to reassure investors about its strategy and debt reduction plans. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 2.5% for the week, its biggest retreat since June 19, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 2.7%. On Friday, the benchmark Sensex fell 0.2% to 59,463.93 in Mumbai, while the Nifty declined 0.3%.
In FX, the Dollar Index is up 0.1%, advancing for the third time in four days. The Australian dollar and Japanese yen are the weakest among the G-10’s.
Sweden’s krona was the only currency to advance against the dollar Friday and this week, as hawkish commentary from the central bank added to bets on further policy tightening.
The euro steadied below $1.06 and the bund curve twist-flattened very modestly. A surprisingly weak final reading of German GDP prompted traders to trim bets for ECB interest- rate rises in the coming months.
The pound was steady but was also among the best-performing major currencies this week after data showed UK household confidence rebounded by the most in almost two years. Gilts eased in early trade before Tenreyro, the BOE’s most dovish policy maker, speaks later in the day.
The yen fell and the volatility skew kept shifting lower after BOJ Governor nominee Kazuo Ueda warned against any magical solution to produce stable inflation and normalize policy as he largely stuck to the existing central bank script in the first parliamentary hearing to approve his appointment
In rates, treasuries are under pressure as US trading day begins, with yields inside Thursday’s rally ranges but near YTD highs reached this week. Yields are higher by 2bp-4bp, 10-year by 3bp at 3.91%; the 10-year yield is ~10bp higher on week and ~40bp higher over past five weeks. Thursday’s ranges included YTD highs for 5- and 10-year. The market is headed for its fifth straight weekly loss, having all but erased January’s gains amid hawkish repricing of Fed policy outlook. UK and German 10-year yields are little changed.
Fed swaps nearly fully price in a third 25bp rate increase in June, following expected moves in March and May. Next week brings a large quarterly month-end index rebalancing with the potential to drive buying, and Treasury coupon auctions resume March 7.
In commodities, oil extended Thursday’s advance amid strength in commodity currencies and optimism over China’s reopening. Crude futures advance with WTI rising 1.2% to trade near $76.30. Spot gold is little changed around $1,822.
Bitcoin was on pace for its second monthly advance, breaking with stocks and other riskier assets
Looking at the day ahead now, there’s a heavy data calendar in the US with personal income and spending data, along with the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, coming at 8:30 a.m. Later, there are reports on new home sales and sentiment as well as a number of Fed comments, including from Loretta Mester and James Bullard.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,008.25
MXAP down 0.7% to 159.42
MXAPJ down 1.2% to 516.92
Nikkei up 1.3% to 27,453.48
Topix up 0.7% to 1,988.40
Hang Seng Index down 1.7% to 20,010.04
Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,267.16
Sensex down 0.3% to 59,449.83
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,307.03
Kospi down 0.6% to 2,423.61
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 463.97
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.47%
Euro little changed at $1.0588
Brent Futures up 0.9% to $82.91/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,822.40
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.11% to 104.71
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
China told the United Nations on Thursday that one year into the Ukraine war “brutal facts offer an ample proof that sending weapons will not bring peace,” just days after the United States and NATO warned Beijing against giving Russia military support. RTRS
Japan’s Jan CPI rose M/M, although not by as much as feared – the ex-food number was +4.2% (vs. +4% in Dec and below the St’s +4.3% forecast) while ex-food/energy came in at +3.2% (vs. +3% in Dec and below the St’s +3.3% forecast). BBG
BOJ governor nominee Kazuo Ueda said it was “appropriate” to continue easing and called Kuroda’s policies “unavoidable” while the joint statement w/the government didn’t require revision, but suggested YCC had negative side effects and warned normalization could occur once the 2% inflation target was in sight. Nikkei
China’s property market: in another sign the downturn is easing/ending, China Garden Holdings, one of the country’s largest developers, plans to buy land in local gov’t auctions for the first time in more than a year. WSJ
Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to bring decision-making of the financial system further under his control with the likely revival of a powerful committee to coordinate financial policy and the possible appointment of a key ally in a top position at the central bank. BBG
China’s overnight repurchase rate, a gauge of interbank funding costs, fell more than 80 basis points from Tuesday when it approached the highest level since 2021. That’s because the PBOC’s string of short-term cash injections that started last week, which included its biggest single-day boost on record, replenished the financial system with liquidity. BBG
The Adani Group will hold a fixed-income investor roadshow in Asia next week as the embattled Indian conglomerate seeks to repair the damage caused by a shock short-seller report. BBG
Credit Suisse cut payouts on a $3.5 billion real estate fund, as clients sought to pull their cash after rising interest rates hurt valuations. The fund’s net asset value is expected to drop as much as 10%. BBG
Inflation measured by the Fed’s favored gauges probably stayed robust last month, upending optimism that the peak has been passed. The headline PCE deflator probably rose 0.5% month on month, with the annual rate staying at 5%. More worrying, both core and supercore gauges may have accelerated too. The sources of the pickup – income and spending growth — probably remained healthy last month. BBG
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos hired an investment firm to evaluate a possible bid for the Washington Commanders, according to two people familiar with the situation. Wa Po
The DOJ wants to block Adobe’s $20 billion purchase of startup Figma, people familiar said. An antitrust lawsuit may be filed next month. The deal also faces antitrust reviews in the EU and UK. Adobe shares fell postmarket. BBG
A sharp rotation toward cyclical stocks has aided mutual fund performance this year. In contrast with 3Q, mutual funds rotated sharply toward cyclical stocks in 4Q, suggesting optimism around the economic outlook. Autos, Tech Hardware, and Banks were among the most added to industries. At a sector level, funds are overweight Financials, Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary. Mutual fund and ETF fund flow data have also flipped in favor of cyclical sectors in recent weeks. In contrast to increased cyclical exposure, mutual fund exposure to growth stocks is higher than at any point since 3Q14. (GIR)
The market is no longer fighting the Fed’s higher-for-longer narrative as it used to. After back in January pricing in more than a half percentage point of easing by year-end, money markets now see around 18 basis points of cuts by December. BBG
The ECB may need to deliver significant interest-rate increases also in the second quarter, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. BBG
Europe should be closer to agreeing on a new set of fiscal rules in March, according to Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni who expects diverging views on debt flexibility to be resolved shortly. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly rangebound after the choppy but positive performance on Wall St where markets spent most of the session recovering from the initial data-induced selling. ASX 200 was positive with the index led by outperformance in tech although gains are limited amid another batch of earnings releases and continued weakness in the mining industry. Nikkei 225 outperformed as the focus centred on comments from BoJ Governor nominee Ueda at the lower house confirmation hearing in which he noted that current monetary policy is appropriate and that Japan still needs more time for inflation to sustainably hit the 2% target. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower after a substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC and as the US looks to include Chinese companies in a fresh round of Russian sanctions, while Hong Kong underperformed amid heavy losses in tech owing to weaker earnings from NetEase.
Top Asian News
BoJ Governor nominee Ueda said current monetary policy is appropriate and that Japan still needs more time for inflation to sustainably hit the 2% target, while he added it is appropriate to continue monetary easing from now on. Ueda stated that if trend inflation improves significantly, the BoJ needs to move toward monetary policy normalisation but if it does not improve, the BoJ must consider ways to maintain YCC while being mindful of market distortions. He also stated that the BoJ won’t conduct bond-selling operations and if it were to normalise policy, it would likely do so by raising interest paid to reserves parked with the central bank. Furthermore, he said must think about what to do with ETF holdings if the BoJ were to exit easy policy but now is not the time to do so and said the BoJ will stop massive bond buying if the 2% target is met.
BoJ Deputy Governor nominee Uchida said uncertainty regarding Japan’s economy is very high and BoJ must support Japan’s economy by maintaining ultra-easy policy, while he added it is wrong to tweak monetary policy just to address side effects and the right approach is to come up with ways to mitigate side-effects and effectively maintain current policy.
BoJ Deputy Governor nominee Himino said it is important to conduct economic policy flexibly and that current monetary policy is appropriate, while he added that they must aim for structural rises in wages. Furthermore, Himino said uncertainty over the global economy is very large and that they need to continue monetary easing for now.
European bourses are contained/slightly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, with fresh drivers limited as the focus is on geopolitics and upcoming US data. Sectors are predominantly in the green, with Construction names bolstered post-Saint Gobain while Basic Resources lag slightly given recent commodity action. Stateside, futures are softer but with the ES still above 4k, the NQ -0.7% is the laggard following some recent pressure in the fixed income complex.
Top European News
Former UK PM Johnson has refused to support PM Sunak’s Brexit deal, which poses a major blow to Downing Street’s hopes of avoiding a Eurosceptic Conservative rebellion, according to The Telegraph.
ECB’s Nagel says the latest data shows core inflation is still too high, stopping tightening soon would be a cardinal sin. Cannot exclude more and significant hikes beyond March. Cannot rule out that headline inflation has plateaued, too speculative to say.
FX
The DXY remains firmer on the session though the upside has peaked at a 104.74 session high with Thursday’s high at 104.78 just above.
Action which comes to the modest detriment of peers, with the JPY lagging as nominee Ueda said the BoJ’s current policy is appropriate, with USD/JPY above 135.00 from a 134.07 base.
In close proximity to the JPY are the antipodeans, with the AUD affected by Yuan action and has slipped below 0.68 vs USD while the NZD remains just above 0.62, aided by RBNZ commentary.
EUR and GBP are the relative outperformers with catalysts light thus far and the EUR unreactive to German data or ECB’s Nagel while Sterling awaits BoE’s dove Tenreyro late-doors; holding around/above 1.06 and 1.20 respectively.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8942 vs exp. 6.8948 (prev. 6.9028)
Fixed Income
Core benchmarks are little changed on the session, having seemingly faded after being unable to test Monday’s peak or Friday’s high, with some pre-PCE action perhaps factoring.
USTs are in-fitting directionally but are modestly negative on the session with yields elevated across the curve ahead of a busy afternoon agenda with the potential for month-end demand later also worth bearing in mind.
Specifically, Bunds, Gilts and USTs have peaked at 135.20, 102.67 and 111.19 respectively.
Commodities
WTI and Brent are firmer on the session with the April contracts residing around/just above Thursday’s peaks of USD 75.99/bbl and USD 82.77/bbl respectively.
Both TTF and Henry Hub gas contracts are firmer thus far, following a settlement in excess of 6% for Henry Hub on Thursday.
Spot gold is essentially unchanged on the session as while the USD remains firmer it is yet to advance significantly from early European morning levels; circa. USD 10/oz shy of Thursday’s USD 1833/oz peak which itself is just below the 10-DMA of USD 1836/oz.
Geopolitics
Ukrainian President Zelensky said the military situation in the south is quite dangerous in some places and is very difficult in the east, according to Reuters.
White House said the US will announce sanctions against Russian individuals and entities on Friday which will affect the banking, defence and tech sectors, while National Security Adviser Sullivan said G7 sanctions being announced on Friday will include countries that are trying to backfill products being denied to Russia.. Subsequently, US is to increase tariffs on 100 Russian metals, minerals and chemical products worth circa. USD 2.8bln; announces USD 2bn in security aid to Ukraine; announces export control measures against 90 Cos that support Russia’s defence sector..
China’s Foreign Ministry released a paper regarding China’s position on the political solution to the Ukraine crisis which noted respect for the sovereignty of all countries and that regional security cannot be guaranteed by strengthening or expanding military blocs, while it also called for a cease-fire (which would see Russian troops remaining in in Ukraine territory) to prevent Ukraine crisis from further aggravating or getting out of control. Furthermore, it stated that dialogue and negotiation are the only viable ways to resolve the crisis and that nuclear weapons should not be used in the Ukraine war. The proposal was quickly rebuffed by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan
EU delegation head in China said China should fulfil its responsibility to defend the UN Charter in the face of Russian aggression and that China’s position paper on Ukraine is not a peace proposal, while Ukraine’s Charge D’affaires said that they have a peace plan which they hope China supports and would like to see China do more to end the war.
French Finance Minister Le Maire said the G20 must condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and must condemn Russia at the finance level, while he added Europe is thinking and working on new sanctions on Russia.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Jan. Personal Income, est. 1.0%, prior 0.2%
Personal Spending, est. 1.4%, prior -0.2%
Real Personal Spending, est. 1.1%, prior -0.3%
PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1%
PCE Deflator YoY, est. 5.0%, prior 5.0%
PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 4.3%, prior 4.4%
10:00: Jan. New Home Sales MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 2.3%
Jan. New Home Sales, est. 620,000, prior 616,000
10:00: Feb. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 66.4, prior 66.4
Feb. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 72.7, prior 72.6
Feb. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 62.5, prior 62.3
Feb. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
Feb. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
11:00: Feb. Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior -11
Fed speakers
10:15: Fed’s Jefferson, Mester discuss paper on managing disinflation
10:15: Fed’s Mester Speaks on Panel at New York Conference
11:30: Fed’s Bullard Discusses Inflation
13:30: Fed’s Collins gives recorded remarks at US Monetary Policy For
13:30: Fed’s Waller discusses inflation
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s a sobering double anniversary today as it marks 1 year to the day that Russia invaded Ukraine and 3 years to the day that we saw the first big covid related sell-off after Italian cases spiked over the prior weekend. The world has been forever changed by those events with the full implications likely to reverberate for many years to come.
Indeed the aftershocks are still being felt every day in markets (good and bad). This has continued this week, with intraday volatility remaining high. Risk assets whipsawed yesterday, with the S&P 500 up nearly +1.0% in early trading before selling off -1.5% in the late US morning following further upward revisions to inflation data in the US and Europe. However that marked the high in yields for the day and a fixed income rally back lifted tech stocks, and in the end the S&P broke a 4-day losing streak to close up +0.53% with the NASDAQ at +0.72% ahead of today’s important PCE print.
There was some speculation that a portion of the post US midday rally was due to delta hedging effects as the S&P 500 traded through the 4000 level, with 0DTE (zero days to expiry) options being partially blamed. There is increasingly higher trading volumes of options on their expiry days than in the past. These options may have been listed at any point but trading activity has increased in options that are set to expire on the day recently. The uptick in interest of these contracts seems to be able to move markets considerably in both directions.
The rally also came as the terminal fed funds rate fell -2.0bps off its cycle highs to finish at 5.347 and US yields continued to fall lower after trading above 3.97% on an intraday basis for the first time since November. They then reversed course to end the day -3.9bps lower at 3.877%. And it was a similar story in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-4.2bps), OATs (-4.5bps) and BTPs (-7.8bps) all moving lower.
Back to equities and Nvidia (+14.02%) was the strongest performer in the entire S&P 500 following their revenue forecast the previous day that beat estimates. On the back of Nvidia’s results, Semiconductors (+5.13%) were the best performing S&P industry followed by cyclicals such as Transports (+1.46%) and Energy (+1.27%). In the meantime, European equities managed to post a small gain for the day, with the STOXX 600 up +0.06%.
In terms of the various data releases yesterday, the first was in the Euro Area, where the core inflation print for January was revised up to +5.3% (vs. +5.2% previously). That’s a new record since the Euro Area’s formation back in 1999, and offers further support for the ECB’s hawks as they look to take rates higher. Indeed, it also leans into our economists’ new ECB call from earlier in the week (link here), where they now see the terminal deposit rate going up to 3.75% at the June meeting.
Just as European inflation was being revised higher, there were also positive upward revisions to the Q4 numbers from the US. For instance, the PCE inflation measure targeted by the Fed rose by an annualised +3.7% in Q4, up from +3.2% previously. So just as with the CPI revisions, this is confirming that the inflation slowdown in Q4 was much smaller than previously thought. Likewise with the core PCE print, the Q4 number was revised up to an annualised +4.3% (vs. +3.9% before). The more important release on this front is today’s US core PCE deflator with DB and consensus at +0.5% m/m compared to a +0.3% reading last month. The accompanying personal income data sees a very a strong +1.0% m/m consensus expectation, while our economists are expecting growth of +0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% previously. DB’s economists expect a +1.3% monthly increase in consumption compared to a 1.4% consensus estimate and -0.2% reading last month.
Also yesterday we received the latest US initial jobless claims data with the week ending February 18 coming in at 192k (vs. 200k expected), while continuing claims was at 1654k (vs. 1700k expected). The rolling 3-month level of continuing claims is now back to rather benign levels, which puts further pressure on the Fed as the labour market continues to look robust through various lenses.
Gilts were a bit of an underperformer yesterday, with the 10yr yield ‘only’ down -1.3bps on the day after spending nearly the entire session in positive territory. That was after comments from the BoE’s Mann, one of the biggest hawks on the MPC, who said “I believe that more tightening is needed, and caution that a pivot is not imminent”. In addition, she said that “I don’t think we are in a restrictive stance particularly”. That led investors to almost fully price in a 25bp move at the next meeting in March, which would take the Bank Rate up to 4.25% if realised.
Asian equity markets are mostly struggling this morning even with the rally back in the US. As I type, the Hang Seng (-1.41%) is the biggest underperformer, dragged lower by declines in Chinese listed tech stocks while the CSI (-1.01%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.70%) and the KOSPI (-0.55%) are also edging lower. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.10%) is bucking the regional negative trend after the incoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) head Kazuo Ueda, in his statement to lawmakers, lent his support for the current monetary policy stance while indicating that inflation is likely to rise gradually. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating a slightly negative bias with those on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.24%) edging lower. Meanwhile, yields on the 10yr USTs (-1.16bps) are slightly lower, trading at 3.87%.
Coming back to Japan, data this morning showed that the core consumer inflation excluding food hit a 41-year high of +4.2% y/y in Japan (v/s +4.3% expected), rising from a +4.0% annual gain seen in December. It was the 9th consecutive month that core consumer inflation stayed above the BOJ’s 2% target. Headline came in as expected at 4.3%. So no surprises and an on message Kazuo Ueda probably reduces the near-term risk of an imminent surprise BoJ YCC move.
In other news yesterday, Bloomberg reported that the search for the Fed’s next Vice Chair was narrowing as the Biden administration looks to replace Lael Brainard, who’s now director of the National Economic Council. According to Bloomberg, the “top tier” candidates were Harvard professor Karen Dynan and Northwestern professor Janice Eberly, with an announcement “possible in the coming weeks.” Both have previous experience in government too, with each having served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy under President Obama. However, the article also mentioned that others were in “serious contention”, including the new Chicago Fed President, Austan Goolsbee, who previously served as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama.
On that theme of appointments, it was separately announced that the United States would be nominating Ajay Banga to be the next President of the World Bank. Banga previously served as CEO of Mastercard for a decade. The US has usually chosen the World Bank President and is the largest shareholder of the World Bank, but in practice they require support from other countries, so it could be some months before we officially know the next president.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include January numbers on personal income, personal spending for January, the core PCE deflator and new home sales. We’ll also get the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for February. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Jefferson, Mester, Bullard, Collins and Waller, along with the BoE’s Tenreyro.
.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
DXY bid, USTs slightly softer and US equities edging lower pre-PCE/Fed speak – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 06:30 AM
European bourses are contained/slightly firmer, with fresh drivers limited as the focus is on geopolitics and upcoming US data.
Stateside, futures are softer but with the ES just above 4k, the NQ is the laggard following some recent pressure in the fixed income complex.
DXY remains firmer on the session though is yet to meaningfully advance higher, to the mixed fortune of peers with JPY lagging post-Ueda while EUR & GBP are flat.
EGBs are little changed having faded from a failed test of recent peaks while USTs are slightly negative pre-PCE/Fed speak.
Crude continues to consolidate while metals are generally rangebound.
US has announced new Russian sanctions, affecting metals, minerals and chemicals alongside measures on Cos supporting their defence sector.
Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, New Home Sales, US President Biden visiting Europe, Speeches from BoE’s Tenreyro, Fed’s Collins, Mester, Jefferson, Bullard & Waller.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are contained/slightly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, with fresh drivers limited as the focus is on geopolitics and upcoming US data.
Sectors are predominantly in the green, with Construction names bolstered post-Saint Gobain while Basic Resources lag slightly given recent commodity action.
Stateside, futures are softer but with the ES still above 4k, the NQ -0.7% is the laggard following some recent pressure in the fixed income complex.
The DXY remains firmer on the session though the upside has peaked at a 104.74 session high with Thursday’s high at 104.78 just above.
Action which comes to the modest detriment of peers, with the JPY lagging as nominee Ueda said the BoJ’s current policy is appropriate, with USD/JPY above 135.00 from a 134.07 base.
In close proximity to the JPY are the antipodeans, with the AUD affected by Yuan action and has slipped below 0.68 vs USD while the NZD remains just above 0.62, aided by RBNZ commentary.
EUR and GBP are the relative outperformers with catalysts light thus far and the EUR unreactive to German data or ECB’s Nagel while Sterling awaits BoE’s dove Tenreyro late-doors; holding around/above 1.06 and 1.20 respectively.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8942 vs exp. 6.8948 (prev. 6.9028)
Core benchmarks are little changed on the session, having seemingly faded after being unable to test Monday’s peak or Friday’s high, with some pre-PCE action perhaps factoring.
USTs are in-fitting directionally but are modestly negative on the session with yields elevated across the curve ahead of a busy afternoon agenda with the potential for month-end demand later also worth bearing in mind.
Specifically, Bunds, Gilts and USTs have peaked at 135.20, 102.67 and 111.19 respectively.
WTI and Brent are firmer on the session with the April contracts residing around/just above Thursday’s peaks of USD 75.99/bbl and USD 82.77/bbl respectively.
Both TTF and Henry Hub gas contracts are firmer thus far, following a settlement in excess of 6% for Henry Hub on Thursday.
Spot gold is essentially unchanged on the session as while the USD remains firmer it is yet to advance significantly from early European morning levels; circa. USD 10/oz shy of Thursday’s USD 1833/oz peak which itself is just below the 10-DMA of USD 1836/oz.
Former UK PM Johnson has refused to support PM Sunak’s Brexit deal, which poses a major blow to Downing Street’s hopes of avoiding a Eurosceptic Conservative rebellion, according to The Telegraph.
ECB’s Nagel says the latest data shows core inflation is still too high, stopping tightening soon would be a cardinal sin. Cannot exclude more and significant hikes beyond March. Cannot rule out that headline inflation has plateaued, too speculative to say.
DATA RECAP
UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Feb) -38 vs. Exp. -43.0 (Prev. -45.0)
German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Mar) -30.5 vs. Exp. -30.4 (Prev. -33.9, Rev. -33.8)
German GDP Detailed QQ SA (Q4) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%); YY NSA (Q4) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Ben Harris is planning to leave, according to Axios.
US and China are to hold deputy-level bilateral discussions today on debt issues and sustainable finance, according to Reuters sources.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen says the Inflation Reduction Act is not a subsidy war with Europe, not trying to steal jobs. Soft landing for the US economy is possible.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said the military situation in the south is quite dangerous in some places and is very difficult in the east, according to Reuters.
White House said the US will announce sanctions against Russian individuals and entities on Friday which will affect the banking, defence and tech sectors, while National Security Adviser Sullivan said G7 sanctions being announced on Friday will include countries that are trying to backfill products being denied to Russia.. Subsequently, US is to increase tariffs on 100 Russian metals, minerals and chemical products worth circa. USD 2.8bln; announces USD 2bn in security aid to Ukraine; announces export control measures against 90 Cos that support Russia’s defence sector..
China’s Foreign Ministry released a paper regarding China’s position on the political solution to the Ukraine crisis which noted respect for the sovereignty of all countries and that regional security cannot be guaranteed by strengthening or expanding military blocs, while it also called for a cease-fire (which would see Russian troops remaining in in Ukraine territory) to prevent Ukraine crisis from further aggravating or getting out of control. Furthermore, it stated that dialogue and negotiation are the only viable ways to resolve the crisis and that nuclear weapons should not be used in the Ukraine war.The proposal was quickly rebuffed by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan
EU delegation head in China said China should fulfil its responsibility to defend the UN Charter in the face of Russian aggression and that China’s position paper on Ukraine is not a peace proposal, while Ukraine’s Charge D’affaires said that they have a peace plan which they hope China supports and would like to see China do more to end the war.
French Finance Minister Le Maire said the G20 must condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and must condemn Russia at the finance level, while he added Europe is thinking and working on new sanctions on Russia.
NORTH KOREA
North Korea conducted “strategic cruise missile” launching drills in which it fired four strategic cruise missiles towards the East Sea at dawn on Thursday, according to state media.
North Korea said if the US continues its hostile practices against the country, it will be considered a declaration of war, according to Yonhap.
US and South Korea agreed to hold additional tabletop exercises to enhance joint deterrence against North Korean nuclear threats, according to the US DoD cited by Reuters and Yonhap
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged on the session, currently resides just shy of the USD 24k mark within narrow USD 23.76-24.13k boundaries.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mostly rangebound after the choppy but positive performance on Wall St where markets spent most of the session recovering from the initial data-induced selling.
ASX 200 was positive with the index led by outperformance in tech although gains are limited amid another batch of earnings releases and continued weakness in the mining industry.
Nikkei 225 outperformed as the focus centred on comments from BoJ Governor nominee Ueda at the lower house confirmation hearing in which he noted that current monetary policy is appropriate and that Japan still needs more time for inflation to sustainably hit the 2% target.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower after a substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC and as the US looks to include Chinese companies in a fresh round of Russian sanctions, while Hong Kong underperformed amid heavy losses in tech owing to weaker earnings from NetEase.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoJ Governor nominee Ueda said current monetary policy is appropriate and that Japan still needs more time for inflation to sustainably hit the 2% target, while he added it is appropriate to continue monetary easing from now on. Ueda stated that if trend inflation improves significantly, the BoJ needs to move toward monetary policy normalisation but if it does not improve, the BoJ must consider ways to maintain YCC while being mindful of market distortions. He also stated that the BoJ won’t conduct bond-selling operations and if it were to normalise policy, it would likely do so by raising interest paid to reserves parked with the central bank. Furthermore, he said must think about what to do with ETF holdings if the BoJ were to exit easy policy but now is not the time to do so and said the BoJ will stop massive bond buying if the 2% target is met.
BoJ Deputy Governor nominee Uchida said uncertainty regarding Japan’s economy is very high and BoJ must support Japan’s economy by maintaining ultra-easy policy, while he added it is wrong to tweak monetary policy just to address side effects and the right approach is to come up with ways to mitigate side-effects and effectively maintain current policy.
BoJ Deputy Governor nominee Himino said it is important to conduct economic policy flexibly and that current monetary policy is appropriate, while he added that they must aim for structural rises in wages. Furthermore, Himino said uncertainty over the global economy is very large and that they need to continue monetary easing for now.
DATA RECAP
Japanese National CPI YY (Jan) 4.3% vs Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.0%)
Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jan) 4.2% vs Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.0%)
Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jan) 3.2% vs Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.0%)
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.32 PTS OR 0.62% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 341.31 PTS OR 1.68% /The Nikkei closed UP 349.16 OR 1.29% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UO 0.27% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.9438 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9593// /Oil UP TO 76.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 82.72 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/COVID
3c CHINA /
CHINA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Naturally, the West says no to China’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine
(zerohedge)
The West Cold-Shoulders China’s Ceasefire Proposal For Ukraine
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 08:02 AM
As expected, China has released its much anticipated peace proposal Friday, which marks the one-year anniversary of the Ukraine invasion, calling for a cease-fire and peace talks which is to include end to sanctions against Russia, as the plan takes a clear anti-Western position.
The foreign ministry said in its 12-point proposal to end the fighting that “All parties should support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and resuming direct dialogue as quickly as possible, so as to gradually deescalate the situation and ultimately reach a comprehensive ceasefire.”Via Reuters
The Associated Pressdescribes that “With its release, President Xi Jinping’s government is reiterating China’s claim to being neutral, despite blocking efforts at the United Nations to condemn the invasion.” And further, “The document echoes Russian claims that Western governments are to blame for the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion and criticizes sanctions on Russia.”
Indeed it calls on the “relevant countries” to “stop abusing unilateral sanctions” and “do their share in de-escalating the Ukraine crisis” – which again lays blame on the outside Western powers for escalating. It charged these countries with “fanning the flames” of conflict.
“Conflict and war benefit no one. All parties must stay rational and exercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions, and prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control,” the Chinese government said.
While offering no details about how it envisions talks will be held, or in what form, the 12-point proposal calls for the safeguarding of all countries’ “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.”
“Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable way out to resolve Ukraine crisis,” it stresses, adding that “China is willing to continue to play a constructive role in this regard.”
But as part of the broadly anti-Western position, the proposal condemns the “Cold War mentality” of some nations for standing in the way of peace, and in discussing this comes close to naming NATO directly:
“A country’s security cannot be at the expense of other countries’ security, and regional security cannot be guaranteed by strengthening or even expanding military blocs,” the proposal said.
“The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries should be taken seriously and properly addressed.”
China abstained on Thursday when the UN General Assembly approved a non-binding resolution that calls for Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw its forces.
Also outlined in the plan, is protection of prisoners of war, halting all attacks on civilians, and the protection of nuclear power plants and the unimpeded flow of grain exports – though again, no further details were spelled out related to these.
But as expected, it fell flat with the West, with the EU delegation head in China very quickly rejecting it as “not a peace proposal”. And yet the Ukrainian government itself greeted it with a surprising level of optimism. “The fact that China has started talking about Ukraine and certain signals have been sent is, in general, very good,” President Zelensky said as a first reaction.
“It is important for us that all states are on our side, on the side of justice. However, the fact that China is already talking about this is the first step, which is very good,” he added. “We will draw conclusions after we see the specifics of what they offer, and then it will be clear.”
After this, State Department spokesman Ned Price struck a more reserved and negative tone, saying, “We would like to see nothing more than a just and durable peace. We very much agree with President Zelensky that this brutal war will have to end at the negotiating table, but we are skeptical that reports of a proposal like this will be a constructive path forward.”
Crucially, at a moment China’s neutrality continues to be questioned, it abstained at Thursday’s UN General Assembly vote which approved a non-binding resolution that calls for Russia to immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine, which also condemned the war.
END
This will go nowhere!
(zerohedge0
NATO Members Float Plan For Negotiations Amid “Growing Doubts” Ukraine Can Retake Territory
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 03:25 PM
Update(1525ET): NATO has “answered” China’s Ukraine peace proposal unveiled earlier in the day by previewing a peace plan that three major Western allies reportedly have in the works. The plan hinges on Ukraine forging a defense pact with NATO (though stopping short of formal membership), and in return Kyiv would enter talks with Moscow, likely with territorial concessions on the table.
It’s said to be motivated in part by Western leaders having “growing doubts” over Ukraine’s ability to reconquer territory – thus a more ‘realist’ and pragmatic perspective might be taking hold one year into the stalemated conflict. The Wall Street Journal broadly outlines the German, France, UK plan as follows:
Germany, France and Britain see stronger ties between NATO and Ukraine as a way to encourage Kyiv to start peace talks with Russia later this year, officials from the three governments said, as some of Kyiv’s Western partners have growing doubts over its ability to reconquer all its territory.
U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak last week laid out a blueprint for an agreement to give Ukraine much broader access to advanced military equipment, weapons and ammunition to defend itself once the war ends. He said the plan should be on the agenda for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s annual meeting in July.
But if the plan hinges on creating a ‘fortress Ukraine’ through ramped up arms deliveries, including tanks and possibly jets, then it’s unlikely to sit well with Moscow – especially if the plan falls short of making territorial concessions. WSJ continues:
The officials were careful to say that any decision on when and under what conditions any peace talks start is entirely up to Ukraine. Sunak on Friday said the West should give Ukraine arms that would give it a “decisive advantage” on the battlefield, including warplanes.
But the fact is that after one year of war, both China and NATO are actually pushing new avenues of peace, which is at least something – or perhaps just a small step downward from the consistent escalation witnessed of late. Meanwhile, public support in the West also appears to be waning, amid complaints of “Ukraine fatigue” and the general population and public discourse losing interest and momentum…
END
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
HOLLAND/RUSSIA
Dutch intelligence: Russia may be preparing to sabotage the West’s energy infrastructure
(Oilprice.com/Paraskova)
Dutch Intelligence: Russia May Be Preparing To Sabotage Energy Infrastructure
Dutch intelligence services warned that the Dutch part of the North Sea is vulnerable to Russian espionage and sabotage activities.
Dutch marine vessels have escorted a Russian ship out of Dutch waters in the North Sea after the Russian vessel was detected near an offshore wind farm.
Intelligence agencies: there are also conceivable threats to energy supply and drinking water supply in the Netherlands.
Vital energy infrastructure in the Dutch sector of the North Sea, including gas pipelines and offshore wind farms, could be vulnerable to a Russian attempt at sabotage, the intelligence services of the Netherlands say.
Russia is covertly mapping the infrastructure in the area and is carrying out activities that indicate espionage and preparations for disruption and sabotage, the Dutch intelligence agencies MIVD and AIVD said in a report this week.
Recently, Dutch marine and coast guard vessels have escorted a Russian ship out of Dutch waters in the North Sea after the Russian vessel was detected near an offshore wind farm attempting to map out energy infrastructure, General Jan Swillens, the head of the MIVD military intelligence of the Netherlands, said at a news conference.
“Russia is mapping how our wind parks in the North Sea function. They are very interested in how they could sabotage the energy infrastructure,” Swillens said, as quoted by Reuters.
There are also conceivable threats to energy supply and drinking water supply in the Netherlands, the intelligence agencies said in the report.
Just this weekend, the Dutch government said it would expel several Russian diplomats as Russia continues to bring spies into the Netherlands under cover of diplomacy.
The Netherlands was not the only European country to warn of increased threats from Russia since the Russian invasion of Ukraine a year ago.
Norway, Netherlands’ fellow NATO member, has been on higher alert for potential sabotage since the autumn of 2022 when the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea were sabotaged and drones were detected near energy infrastructure in Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer.
At the end of September, the Petroleum Safety Authority Norway (PSA) of Norway urged increased vigilance by all operators and vessel owners on the Norwegian Continental Shelf after companies operating offshore Norway had given warnings or notifications of a number of observations concerning unidentified drones or aircraft close to offshore installations.
A week later, Norway posted soldiers from its Home Guard to protect energy infrastructure as Western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, and its Scandinavian neighbors increased security following the sabotage of Nord Stream.
The Norwegian Police Security Service (PST) said last week in the annual National Threat Assessment report, the first since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, “Several countries’ intelligence services operate on Norwegian territory. In PST’s opinion, Russian intelligence services will pose the greatest threat to Norway this year.”
“It is unlikely that Russia will carry out an act of sabotage on Norwegian territory in 2023. However, acts of sabotage could become a more relevant scenario if Russia’s willingness to escalate the conflict with NATO and the West were to increase,” the Norwegian service said in the report.
PST expects Russian intelligence services will need new political and military intelligence related to the consequences of NATO’s enlargement in the Nordic region.
“Further, Norway’s role as an energy supplier to Europe has assumed even greater security policy importance as a result of the war in Ukraine,” PST said in the report.
Norway supplies more than 25% of the natural gas to the rest of Europe and has surpassed Russia as the top supplier after Moscow cut off pipeline supply to many EU countries last year. Norway, not an EU member but a NATO member and close ally to the EU, has become increasingly important for Europe’s energy security as the West turns to supplies from allies to replace Russian volumes.
“Over the past year, we have seen the emergence of Russian ambitions to exert pressure on European energy security. PST therefore expects that in 2023, Russia will try to gather intelligence about most aspects of Norway’s oil, gas and energy sector,” the Norwegian Police Security Service said.
END
END
5.UKRAINE RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
IRAN//ISRAEL/
Explosions in the Iranian City of Karaj known to house a nuclear facility
(zerohedge)
Explosions In Iranian City Which Hosts Nuclear Facility, Air Defenses Activated
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 06:40 PM
Reports are emerging of a possible attack on a military facility in the city of Karaj on Thursday night, at a moment tensions are boiling between Tehran and Israel over the Islamic Republic’s advancing nuclear program.
The BBC’s Persian-language service reported that widespread gunshots and and explosions were observed in the area, which lies just west of the Iranian capital. Anti-aircraft fire was also seen in multiple circulating clips, which remain unverified.
However, the Iranian government is denying that it was a hostile attack from a foreign force, instead calling it a live-fire defense exercise.
Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency tweeted a video describing military training in the area.
Israeli media has also picked up on the claims of an attack, while noting that a key nuclear facility is located in Karaj. As The Jerusalem Post recounts:
Defense facilities in and near Karaj have been targeted by attacks repeatedly in recent years.
In July 2021, Iran blamed Israel for a sabotage operation that targeted a building belonging to Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) in Karaj the month before.
One journalist and observer of the region described that “An unofficial report circulating online says that a depot of IR-6 centrifuges in Kondar village, 24 km from Karaj, Alborz province, was targeted Thursday night.” However, there’s no independent confirmation of this, despite the widely circulating videos.
Bloombergreported Sunday that Iran has currently reached an 84% uranium enrichment level, a new high. While Iran has all long claimed it is only for peaceful nuclear energy purposes, the number needed for achieving an atomic bomb is 90%.
END
ISRAEL/OMAN
The Abraham accords are now gaining full steam as OMAN normalizes relations with Israel
(zerohedge)
Another Gulf State Opens Airspace For Israeli Carriers As ‘Normalization’ Advances
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 07:20 PM
In another sign of rapidly warming ties between Arab gulf countries and Israel, Oman has announced it is opening its airspace to Israeli carriers for the first time in history.
It comes on the heels of Saudi Arabia allowing Israeli airplanes to also traverse its airspace, seen as a huge step in the normalization of relations process still underway, based on the Trump administration’s ‘Abraham Accords’. Israeli airlines can now significantly shorten travel eastbound to places like India and China. File image: Times of Israel/Flash90
For months, the White House has been working behind the scenes with the Omani government to improve economic and diplomatic relations with Israel. This included meetings going back to November between White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi.
The prior Omani government had pledged to open its airspace years ago, but this was halted. “In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Oman and got a commitment from then-Sultan Qaboos to allow Israeli airlines to use Omani airspace,” Axios writes. “But after Qaboos died, current Sultan Haitham bin Tariq rolled back the decision.”
Last week, Bloomberg reported that Israel’s new government under Benjamin Netanyahu has stepped up efforts to cement stronger military and intelligence cooperation between Saudi Arabia (and by extension the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council/GCC) and Israel.
While historically the Saudis have never recognized the ‘Jewish state’ – both have long secretly cooperated in places like Syria and Yemen, in what they see as ‘counter-Iran’ operations.Source: Encyclopedia Britannica
Israel normalized relations with the UAE and Bahrain in 2020 under the Abraham Accords, and is hoping Saudi Arabia will be next. However, this would likely be met with fierce anger among the Saudi public, and particularly among the powerful Sunni clerical establishment.
end
A very important read from Pepe Escobar…
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Escobar: Putin’s “Civilizational” Speech Frames Conflict Between East And West
In his Federal Assembly address, President Putin emphasized that Russia is not only an independent nation-state but also a distinct civilization with its own identity, which is in conflict and actively opposes the values of ‘western civilization.’
The address, significantly, marked the first anniversary of Russia’s official recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, only a few hours before 22 February, 2022. In myriad ways, what happened a year ago also marked the birth of the real, 21st century multipolar world.
Then two days later, Moscow launched the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine to defend said republics.
Cool, calm, collected, without a hint of aggression, Putin’s speech painted Russia as an ancient, independent, and quite distinct civilization – sometimes following a path in concert with other civilizations, sometimes in divergence.
Ukraine, part of Russian civilization, now happens to be occupied by western civilization, which Putin said “became hostile to us,” like in a few instances in the past. So the acute phase of what is essentially a war by proxy of the west against Russia takes place over the body of Russian civilization.
That explains Putin’s clarification that “Russia is an open country, but an independent civilization – we do not consider ourselves superior but we inherited our civilization from our ancestors and we must pass it on.”
A war dilacerating the body of Russian civilization is a serious existential business. Putin also made clear that “Ukraine is being used as a tool and testing ground by the west against Russia.” Thus the inevitable follow-up: “The more long-range weapons are sent to Ukraine, the longer we have to push the threat away from our borders.”
Translation: this war will be long – and painful. There will be no swift victory with minimal loss of blood. The next moves around the Dnieper may take years to solidify. Depending on whether US policy continues to cleave to neo-con and neoliberal objectives, the frontline may be displaced to Lviv. Then German politics may change. Normal trade with France and Germany may be recovered only by the end of the next decade.
Kremlin exasperation: START is finished
All that brings us to the games played by the Empire of Lies. Says Putin: “The promises…of western rulers turned into forgery and cruel lies. The west supplied weapons, trained nationalist battalions. Even before the start of the SMO, there were negotiations…on the supply of air defense systems… We remember Kyiv’s attempts to obtain nuclear weapons.”
Putin made it clear, once again, that the element of trust between Russia and the west, especially the US, is gone. So it’s a natural decision for Russia to “withdraw from the treaty on strategic offensive weapons, but we don’t do it officially. For now we are only halting our participation to the START treaty. No US inspections in our nuclear sites can be allowed.”
As an aside, of the three main US-Russian weapons treaties, Washington abandoned two of these: The Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty was dumped by the administration of former president George W. Bush in 2002, and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was nixed by former president Donald Trump in 2019.
This shows the Kremlin’s degree of exasperation. Putin is even prepared to order the Ministry of Defense and Rosatom to get ready to test Russian nuclear weapons if the US goes first along the same road.
If that’s the case, Russia will be forced to completely break parity in the nuclear sphere, and abandon the moratorium on nuclear testing and cooperation with other nations when it comes to the production of nuclear weapons. So far, the US and NATO game consisted in opening a little window allowing them to inspect Russian nuclear sites.
With his judo move, Putin returns the pressure onto the White House.
The US and NATO will not be exactly thrilled when Russia starts testing its new strategic weapons, especially the post-doomsday Poseidon – the largest nuclear-powered torpedo ever deployed, capable of triggering terrifying radioactive ocean swells.
On the economic front: Bypassing the US dollar is the essential play towards multipolarity. During his speech, Putin made a point to extol the resilience of the Russian economy: “Russian GDP in 2022 decreased only by 2.1 percent, estimates of the opposing side did not become reality, they said 15, 20 percent.” That resilience gives Russia enough room to “work with partners to make the system of international settlements independent of the US dollar and other western currencies. The dollar will lose its universal role.”
On geoeconomics: Putin went all out in praise of economic corridors, from West Asia to South Asia: “New corridors, transport routes will be built towards the East, this is the region where we will focus our development, new highways to Kazakhstan and China, new North-South corridor to Pakistan, Iran.”
And those will connect to Russia developing “the ports of the Black and Azov Seas, it’s necessary to build logistics corridors within the country.” The result will be a progressive interconnection with the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) whose principals include Iran and India, and eventually China’s mega-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
China’s plan for global security
It’s inevitable that apart from sketching several state policies geared towards Russia’s internal development – one might even compare them to socialist policies – a great deal of Putin’s address had to focus on the NATO vs. Russia war till-the-last-Ukrainian.
Putin remarked on how “our relations with the west have degraded, and this is entirely the fault of the United States;” how NATO’s goal is to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia; and how the warmongering frenzy had forced him, a week ago, to sign a decree “putting new ground-based strategic complexes on combat duty.”
So it’s no accident that the US ambassador was immediately summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs right after Putin’s address.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Ambassador Lynne Tracey in no uncertain terms that Washington must take concrete measures: among them, to remove all US and NATO military forces and equipment away from Ukraine. In a stunning move, he demanded a detailed explanation of the destruction of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, as well as a halt to US interference in an independent inquiry to identify the responsible parties.
Keeping the momentum in Moscow, top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi met with secretary of Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, before talking to Lavrov and Putin. Patrushev remarked, “the course towards developing a strategic partnership with China is an absolute priority for Russia’s foreign policy.” Wang Yi, not so cryptically, added, “Moscow and Beijing need to synchronize their watches.”
The Americans are doing everything to try and pre-empt the Chinese proposal for a de-escalation in Ukraine. China’s plan should be presented this Friday, and there’s a serious risk Beijing may fall into a trap set by the western plutocracy.
Too many Chinese “concessions” to Russia, and not as many to Ukraine, may be spun to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing (Divide and Rule, which is always the US Plan A. There’s no Plan B).
The problem is Beijing still attributes too much clout to a toothless UN, when they refer to“formulating a New Agenda for Peace and other proposals put forth in Our Common Agenda by the UN Secretary-General.”
Same when Beijing upholds the consensus that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” Try to explain that to the Straussian neo-con psychos in the Beltway, who know nothing about war, much less nuclear ones.
The Chinese affirm the necessity to “comply with the joint statement on preventing nuclear war and avoiding arms races issued by leaders of the five nuclear-weapon states in January 2022.” And to “strengthen dialogue and cooperation among nuclear-weapon states to reduce the risk of nuclear war.”
Bets can be made that Patrushev explained in detail to Wang Yi how that is just wishful thinking. The “logic “of the current collective western “leadership” has been expressed, among others, by irredeemable mediocrity Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general: even nuclear war is preferable to a Russian victory in Ukraine.
Putin’s measured but firm address has made it clear that the stakes keep getting higher. And it all revolves on how deep Russia’s – and China’s – “strategic ambiguity” are able to petrify a paranoid west flirting with mushroom clouds.
END
Russia Tells UN That Ukraine Crisis Is A “War With The West For Survival”
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 06:55 AM
In two days of United Nations special sessions this week related to Ukraine as well as the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, Russia mounted a robust defense, arguing that it sees its ongoing military action in Ukraine is a matter of “survival”.
Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya voiced the stark perspective on Wednesday, casting the war as one against the collective West. “As for our country, we see all of this as a war with the West for survival, for the future of our country, for our children, for our identity,” he said.
The Russian diplomat’s words followed a surprise admission by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who in a Feb.14 press conference in Brussels described that “the war didn’t start in February last year. The war started in 2014.”
The day prior to Nebenzya’s remarks, the UN Security Council had convened at the urging of permanent member Russia to consider fresh allegations surrounding the Nord Stream sabotage. Nebenzia during that session called for establishing an independent investigation.
He specifically invoked Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh’s bombshell report which said the pipelines were bombed as part of an elaborate covert CIA operation involving the US Navy and help from the Norwegians:
“This journalist is telling the truth,” Nebenzia said at the meeting. “This is more than just a smoking gun that detectives love in Hollywood blockbusters. It’s abasic principle of justice; everything is in your hands, and we can resolve this today.”
Crucially, China immediately backed the call. “As the most authoritative and representative international organization, the UN can play an active role in conducting an international investigation and ensuring the security of transboundary infrastructure,” the Chinese ambassador told the Security Council.
But US Ambassador John Kelley slammed what he called Moscow’s attempts to obfuscate and deflect blame from its aggression in Ukraine, saying that “today’s meeting is a blatant attempt to distract” from the forthcoming emergency meeting of the General Assembly. The US at that upcoming meeting is expected to rally in favor of a scathing UN condemnation of Moscow to mark one-year since Moscow’s Feb.24 invasion.
“That is what our focus should be on,” Kelly said. “Russia desperately wants to change the subject.”
But also addressing the council as outside experts were American economist Jeffrey Sachs and Ray McGovern, a former CIA analyst and author Ray McGovern. They made compelling cases during their presentations, saying that the Hersh report is accurate also on account of recent statements from US officials. Those presentations before the UN body be viewed below
end
SYRIA//USA
Gaetz wants his bill to pull USA troops out of “Obama’s war in Syria”. He is perfectly correct
(Dave DeCamp/Antiwar.com)
Rep. Gaetz Bill Would Pull US Troops Out Of “Obama’s War In Syria”
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has introduced a War Powers Resolution that would order President Biden to pull all US troops out of Syria, a move that came after four US troops were reported injured in a raid against ISIS in the country. “Congress has never authorized the use of military force in Syria. The United States is currently not in a war with or against Syria, so why are we conducting dangerous military operations there?“Gaetz said in a statement on the resolution.
“President Biden must remove all US Armed Forces from Syria. America First means actually putting the people of our country first — not the interests of the Military Industrial Complex.”
US Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Getty Images
He said the purpose of the resolution was to see where Congress stands on the US military presence in Syria. According to a press release from Gaetz’s office, the War Powers Resolution is privileged, meaning the House will be forced to vote on it within 18 days of its introduction. The press release said he filed the resolution on Tuesday.
“Since the invasion of Ukraine, we seem to have turned our attention away from some of America’s entanglement in Syria,”Gaetz told Fox News Digital. “And the purpose of my legislation is to force members of Congress to vote on record regarding whether they think we ought to continue Obama’s war in Syria.”
Gaetz criticized progressive Democrats for supporting US involvement in Ukraine and said he wanted to see where the “antiwar coalition” in Congress falls when it comes to the Middle East. “Is it more on the right, is it more on the left? Is it some amalgamation thereof? But this resolution will test who is truly adherent to what I believe is America First Foreign Policy and who continues to believe in Middle Eastern adventurism,” he said.
In July 2022, the House voted on a proposed amendment to the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act introduced by Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) that would have cut all funds for the US presence in Syria within one year if President Biden didn’t get authorization from the war. The amendment failed, but it received support from about 60% of House Democrats. According to the House Clerk, 130 Democrats voted in favor, while only 25 Republicans supported the amendment.
Gaetz noted that the presence in Syria risks sparking a wider war as US troops have encountered Russian soldiers in the country. “The risk of an accident or miscalculation or just misuse of authority could lead to direct kinetic conflict between the United States and Russia in Syria. And we ought to really think about whether or not that risk is worth whatever it is we’re fighting for in Syria,” he said.
The US has about 900 troops in Syria and backs the Kurdish-led SDF. On paper, the presence is about fighting ISIS, and US operations against the terror group have increased in recent months. But the US occupation is also part of the economic war against Damascus as the area of Syria under US and SDF control is where most of the country’s oil resources are.
On top of the occupation of Syria, the US imposed sanctions on the country designed to prevent reconstruction. The US issued a 180-day waiver on sanctions for transactions related to relief efforts following a devastating earthquake that hit northwest Syria and Turkey, but UN experts say the waiver isn’t enough and are calling for all sanctions to be lifted.
end
This is a must read:
Where this is heading!!
RUSSIA//UKRAINE/USA
Robert H to us;
Were we warned ?
As a backdrop, it is well canvassed that Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe, if not the world. Further, the Ukrainians exist because America literally pays for everything there from pensions to the entire Civil Service, to all manner of politicians. Just look at how politicians are spending money in Kiev buying new cars and clothes having sold out the public. This is at a time when 57% of Americans are having a difficult time making ends meet month to month. And in contrast, Russia-China trade is likely to hit $200 billion this year. This is amazing growth. And today, Russia is the most sanctioned nation on the planet. So much for the projected collapse of Russia that the ship of fools sold the West believing their own hubris and importance. Resulting in NATO being more divided than ever before as people recognize realities over American fiction. This was the real reason for the abrupt BIden parade to reassure nations America is there for them. At a time, when it is more apparent than ever America does not have friends, only interests. Frankly the Chinese message to the the fools crewing the Ship that the US is in no position to tell China what to do is telling, if one has ears to listen with.
Putin gave a nationwide speech in Russia, this past Tuesday. Most pundits said he didn’t say anything we didn’t already know. Most of them focused on his announcement of the withdrawal from the START II treaty. However, what he said is something far more significant, from a foreign policy standpoint. Because Russia’s foreign policy has radically changed.
An Existential Threat
What Putin said, when read through the lens of international law, should be chilling to the West.
We would do well to remember that Putin majored in international law. His speech made a legal case against NATO.
First he listed, 30 different ways in which the Western nations have attacked Russia. These included the expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders, support of terrorists in Russia, economic war, terrorist sabotage of thenNord Stream Pipeline, financing of the coup and war in Ukraine, directly assisting Ukraine to attack targets in Russia including Russia’s nuclear bombers, and plotting to destroy and partition Russia into pieces.And this is not news because it has been well canvassed in various writings by people like Seymour Hersh and many others and is simply what has occurred.
This is the direct quote:
“This means they plan to finish us once and for all. In other words, they plan to grow a local conflict into a global confrontation. This is how we understand it and we will respond accordingly, because this represents an existential threat to our country.”
Putin’s choice of words is extremely significant in light of Russian nuclear doctrine, which states that nuclear weapons could be used by Russia “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.”
Among the 30 points of evidence of the American war on Russia, Putin listed several cases of American use of conventional weapons against Russian territory through Ukraine as the thinly veiled proxy, and stated that this represents an “existential threat to [the Russian State].”
What Putin has just told us is that the Kremlin now considers nuclear use condition #2 to be true, today.
This statement was accompanied by two related actions. The day before the speech Russia tested a Sarmat II ICBM. And at the end of the speech, Mr. Putin announced that Russia shall immediately withdraw from the START II treaty, which limits the number and range of their nuclear missiles.
These three statements and events together should tell the collective West that Russia has just said “Get off my porch!”, and cocked the gun. It is why Lavrov called in the American Ambassador the next day and told her to get out of the Ukraine. You might want to think certain European leaders took note
This doesn’t mean that Russia is going to strike the USA tomorrow. But, we are definitely now teetering on the cliff’s edge of nuclear war, if stupidity continues to be exercised.
Nuclear Offense and Defense
Putin has previously said that nobody can win a nuclear war, and it is a war that should never be fought. However, behind the scenes Russia had been furiously preparing to survive just such a war, which they hope never needed to be fought. About a decade ago, America lost the nuclear advantage of mutually assured destruction, and has lost any semblance of Trust. Let’s review today’s reality.
Russia has developed and deployed the S-500 and S-550 air defenses which are primarily designed to shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles in space before they can release their multiple warheads upon re-entry. Each S-500 battery is capable of simultaneously tracking and destroying 10 ICBMs in the early to mid flight stages.
The S-300 and S-400 batteries armed with the new 77N6-N and 77N6-N1 anti-ballistic missiles are also capable of shooting down ICBM warheads after re-entry at shorter ranges than the S-500.
These systems create an envelopes of defensive rings around key Russian cities and military bases. In the event of a nuclear exchange the S-500 would target the incoming ICBMs while still in space at a range of 600 kilometers, and outside the borders of Russia; and the S-400 and S-300 batteries would target any deployed warheads that managed to get through. Obviously, preventing as many enemy missiles as possible from being launched would improve the chances of successful defense.
The S-500 was deployed in 2021 to protect Moscow and went into mass production in 2022. So it is very possible that Russia has quietly installed a comprehensive missile defense shield. However, we don’t have enough information to know whether it could be perfectly effective against hundreds of ICBMs at once. Given the maximum launch of 640 ICBMs by NATO, a total of sixty-four S-500 batteries would be required in order to intercept them all. And given Russian mentality, it is likely that they have at least this much if not much more. Compare that to what America has, because Europe is naked and will crushed in any exchange.
Due to missile reduction treaties since 1990, NATO’s nuclear triad consists of about 400 Minuteman III ICBMs, 240 submarine-launched Trident II ICBM’s, plus a few hundred B61 nuclear bombs carried by the sixty B1 and B2 heavy bombers in NATO’s air force.
If Russia’s ICBM defenses could take out 90% of 640 incoming missiles, it could survive a nuclear exchange at the cost of absorbing hits from about 50 warheads that got through. Given the smaller modern warheads in NATO’s missile forces, it would do terrible but localized damage. Moscow would probably experience massive damage, but the rest of Russian territory would be fine.
NATO’s nuclear offense forces rely on aging Trident II and Minuteman III ICBMs. The majority of these systems are over thirty years old. This means they will probably have a significant failure rate just to launch. Russia’s modern air defenses and ECM have been designed to defeat these old technologies.
In balance to the effort to perfect defenses against ICBMs, Putin announced that Russia’s nuclear forces have been 91% modernized. That means that the ICBMs that Russia would fire all have maneuverable hypersonic warheads. US air defenses are currently unable to defend against these. Especially given the likelihood that the 1st missiles would be of the AVANGUARD class which come in at Mach20.
The spacing of American Minuteman silos was designed for the majority to survive a first strike and launch retaliation. However, Russian maneuverable hypersonic multiple re-entry vehicles nullify this defense if the targeting data is accurate. Russia has to accurately hit 400 ground targets in the first strike to nullify a response.
Thus, if Russia strikes first, it may be able to eliminate the majority of incoming missiles by destroying them on the ground. The 240 submarine launched Trident missiles would be the primary threat to defend against. Thus a first strike could reduce the number of expected retaliation missiles by 62%.
NATO’s aging heavy bomber fleet is unlikely to be able to penetrate Russian air defenses. While these bombers were constantly kept in the air at the peak of the cold war, that is no longer the case.
A first strike would make it unlikely that the bombers and refuelers could get off the ground in time to effectively respond.
Russia currently has a window of superiority in both nuclear offense and defense that NATO is rapidly trying to close. It is not in Russia’s interest to allow NATO to close the technology gap in air defense and ICBM offense.
The world is now on the threshold of nuclear war. Russia keeps warning the West. The West keeps ignoring the warnings and doubling down. The immovable object is meeting the unstoppable force.
Three important things have changed since the Cold War which have changed the probability of a nuclear exchange.
Nuclear proliferation means that MAD can be bypassed if the identity of the first attacker is uncertain to the target. A missile that appears from an unexpected direction may not have been launched by the most obvious suspect.
MAD depends on both parties being rational actors. The West ceased to be rational when they destroyed Nordstream.
Russia may now have an effective missile defense shield, while NATO does not.
The Russian Method Projected Forward
Just as in December 2021 when Russia asked NATO for security guarantees, Russia follows the letter of the law and procedure. They gave NATO the opportunity to back down or negotiate. When they were rebuffed, Russia intervened militarily in Ukraine, about 70 days after the initial demand for negotiation with NATO.
Following the same methodology, in 2023, Russia has just made the legal case that the USA and NATO are at war with Russia and pose an existential threat to Russia’s existence.IS ANYONE HEARING and REALIZING THIS?
It seems likely that after Xi’s visit to Moscow that China, will offer a peace deal which freezes the Ukraine conflict within whatever the then current lines of contact are. And we should expect Ukraine conceding lost territory to Russia. And the line of contact will be far extended beyond what it is now to prevent longer range missile strikes.
If and when the West rejects the offered peace, which seems fairly likely, given the current Ship of Fools then all of the conditions for a nuclear war will be in place.
All it will take is a new provocation by NATO to trigger a first strike by Russia. Or worse, if both parties realize this is the case, both will have the incentive to strike first. There is a very short time frame for sanity and common sense to be found. In an era where detection of missile launches is made in seconds there is little time for an error to be corrected. And we can be assured that there will be no sentimental feeling since a missile is thought to be launched.
If a peace deal is rejected, China will also understand what it must do and any Russian or American action will acted upon in concert. What has been glossed over is how furiously the Chinese have been adding new nuclear missiles to their arsenal. The period of late April is froth with risk.
end
Robert H:
The Ukraine War has been in the Planning Stage since 2013 | Armstrong Economics
This is nothing more that a color revolution propagated by American foreign policy like so many before. Remember Iraq or Afghanistan? And like those historical messes this one will be no different. Other than the fallout will be wider and more distance. As this colossal fiasco unfolds in Ukraine with more deaths and collateral fallout in Europe, we should anticipate Capital Controls on the movement of currency. The same will hold true in Asia when shells fly with China. The entire region will be affected; and evidence already exists in a collapsing real estate market in Australia, as an example of what is coming. As a result, there will be a visible lack of liquidity, especially as trade values become more diverse and are lessened in value, and volume. Items like real estate will be amongst the first to suffer real lack of demand and by a shortage of liquidity. Any monetary asset that can be controlled will be controlled. This is what has historically has happened and history will repeat. This will also manifest in a shortage of goods that are USD priced and produced in Europe and Asia as internal country liquidity is scarce and scarce at Banks lacking abundant unfettered cash assets on their balance sheets. And like with all assets the more valuable and pricy an asset the lower the real price as its true value is defined by availed liquidity on a given day and not by partisan or even a market screen. And that means cash and not debt.
Post-infection immunity is superior to protection from COVID-19 vaccines, according to a new study from U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) researchers.
Natural immunity, or postinfection immunity, provided 76 percent protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations while Omicron was the dominant virus strain in the country, the researchers found. A primary series of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine, in people without a prior infection, provided just 39 percent protection.
Natural immunity also lasted longer at higher levels than both primary series of vaccination and vaccination with a messenger RNA booster on top of a primary series, according to the study. During Omicron predominance, natural immunity against hospitalization was 74 percent 150 or more days after infection. A primary series without prior infection remained just 39 percent protective beyond 149 days, while three doses started at 81 percent protection but waned to just 31 percent after 150 or more days following the third dose.
“Protection from COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and/or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations … regardless of variant [was high],” Catherine Bozio of the CDC and the other researchers said. SARS-CoV-2 causes COVID-19.
The agency, which recommends a primary series and a bivalent booster for virtually all Americans 6 months of age and older, regardless of prior infection, did not respond to an email asking if the study’s findings would lead to a recommendation change.
Robert Moffit, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Health and Welfare Policy, told The Epoch Times that the study’s acknowledgment of natural immunity “is a very significant development.”
“Natural immunity has very direct relevance for federal policy, and really, the vaccine policy, particularly the enforcement of mandates on individuals, not only in the government but also the private sector,” he said.
Researchers examined data from the CDC-run VISION Vaccine Effectiveness Network to examine patients who went to emergency room departments, urgent care facilities, or hospitals. The study period started on August 26, 2021, while Delta was still dominant, and went through June 13, 2022.
People were counted as unvaccinated if they had no record of vaccination. People who received Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine, people who only received one vaccine dose, and people who received two vaccine doses but 14 days had not elapsed before testing, were excluded. People were counted as having a prior infection if they tested positive 90 days or more before the index test date, defined as “the date of specimen collection associated with the most recent positive SARS-CoV-2 test result within the 14 days prior to” a COVID-19-associated health care visit, or the date of the visit itself if testing occurred later.
Other studies have also determined that vaccine-bestowed protection was not as good against Delta or Omicron as that found in people who recovered from COVID-19.
Researchers in Qatar, for instance, reported in late 2022 that natural immunity protected better against infection and severe or critical COVID-19 from Omicron than a Moderna or Pfizer primary series.
An Israeli study found as early as August 2021 that prior infection was superior to vaccination during the Delta era.
For the new paper, researchers looked at part of that time. And they found that during Delta, natural infection provided 91 percent protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalization, versus 73 percent from a primary series.
While natural immunity grew stronger over time, vaccination-bestowed immunity grew weaker, the researchers found. Against Delta, two doses dropped from 85 percent protection to 69 percent protection after 150 or more days, and three doses provided 66 percent protection beyond 149 days.
So-called hybrid immunity, or vaccination on top of natural immunity, was better than vaccination alone. Some experts support vaccinating people with infection-induced immunity but others have warned against it, noting some research has found the naturally immune are at higher risk of side effects.
Alignment With CDC Guidance
As is typical with the CDC and CDC-funded studies, the researchers included statements in support of vaccination.
“Although infection-induced immunity provides protection, SARS-CoV-2 infection can cause severe disease, death, and long-term morbidity,” they wrote.
“COVID-19 vaccination is safe and effective at preventing severe COVID-19 disease, and staying up to date continues to provide protection, regardless of history of prior infection. COVID-19 vaccination also enhances protection in persons who have been previously infected,” they added.
The researchers did not mention vaccine side effects or examine vaccine safety in their study.
“One of the more remarkable features of this entire pandemic has been the tendency of the CDC and other federal officials to either ignore scientific evidence relating to natural immunity and COVID-19 or to downplay it. And I think that has been a very serious problem,” Moffitt said.
In its investigation of COVID-19 and the vaccines, Congress should examine, Moffitt said, the pursuit of vaccine mandates and the consistent downplaying or ignorance of natural immunity.
COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates in US Cities Did Not Reduce Viral Spread, Deaths: Study
COVID-19 vaccine mandates implemented by city administrations across the United States did little to restrict the spread of infection and ended up negatively affecting unvaccinated individuals and businesses, according to latest research by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
The study, “Indoor Vaccine Mandates in US Cities, Vaccination Behavior, and COVID-19 Outcomes,” questioned the efficacy of vaccine mandates imposed in the nine cities of Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New Orleans, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle, and the District of Columbia.
Mandates imposed by the cities were “arguably among the most restrictive and polarizing regulations ever enacted in the United States,” according to the study report.
“Most supporters of the regulations claim that the benefits associated with the increase in vaccination rates as a result of the mandate—and its implied reduction in the spread of COVID-19—outweigh the costs of its disruptions. However, the authors find that indoor vaccine mandates had no significant impact on COVID-19 vaccine uptake, cases, or deaths across all nine cities that implemented the policy,” the research stated.
For instance, when Philadelphia announced indoor masking and employee vaccination requirements in August 2021, Mayor Jim Kenney argued that these policies were “critical to slowing the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19.”
According to the Mercatus study, the city’s mandates “negatively affected” people who were not vaccinated as well as businesses that were barred from serving such individuals.
As an example of such negative effects, the study points to New York City, where over 90 percent of restaurants reported facing client-related challenges like losing customers who objected to these mandates.
The city’s vaccine mandate also caused staff-related challenges in three-quarters of restaurants, while 1,430 workers were fired for not complying with the requirements.
Citing previous research, the study noted that even though country-level mandates raised vaccine uptake “substantially,” city-level mandates failed to achieve such a level of success.
This is because city-level mandates were easier to evade for citizens as all they had to do was travel to a neighboring city which did not have such mandates.
A study published in July 2022 by researchers at the University of Southern California and the University of California–Davis found that school-based mask mandates had “limited to no impact” on COVID-19 case rates among K–12 students.
A May 2022 study found that COVID-19 masking and vaccine rules imposed by Cornell University were not sufficient to prevent the transmission of the Omicron variant in late 2021 and 2022.
In an interview with The Epoch Times in October, Lt. Col. William P. Anton, who served in the military for over 20 years, said that fellow service members were being injured due to the COVID-19 vaccine mandate imposed by the Department of Defense, but “no one is doing anything about it.”
Anton expressed disappointment in senior military and civilian leadership.
“They are each in their own way aware of the ill health effects on our service members or the negative impact on our military’s readiness, and yet they remain silent,” he said. “They justify their silence as obedience to military orders because that is easier than to acknowledge their own lack of moral courage.”
Earlier in March, Antony and several other service members had submitted a 100-page report to members of the U.S. House and Senate detailing statements from injured personnel, raising concerns about the negative effects of the vaccine mandate on their health and security of the nation.
However, Anton says he was “shocked and frustrated” after only receiving lukewarm responses from a few senators and staffers.
“For the most part, there hasn’t really been any action,” he said.
end
GLOBAL ISSUES;/GLOBAL ECONOMIES
A terrific commentary for Victor Davis Hanson on the foolishness of the Ukraine war. He warns this is a prelude to destruction
(Victor Davis Hanson)
Victor Davis Hanson: The Ukraine War’s Prelude To What?
The Ukraine mess is daily looking more like the Spanish Civil War of 1936 to 1939, a meat grinder that took 500,000 lives. That three-year conflict became a savage proxy war and prelude for the belligerents of World War II…
The Ukraine battlefield is proving a similar laboratory of death. New lethal weaponry and tactics are introduced, modified—and always improved—from drones to guided missiles to internet-fed artillery.
Likewise, a similar pre-global war lineup of the eventual adversaries is emerging in preview of a much larger, much scarier war to come.
The first mission of Ukraine, the aggrieved victim of a peremptory Russian attack, was simple survival.
But now that it has been armed to the teeth and its soldiers proved far more capable and heroic than Putin’s once-feared Russia, Kyiv now seeks to push back Russians to their 2014 Ukrainian acquired borders.
Next President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that the third stage will be to eject every Russian from 2013 Ukraine. He promises to reabsorb both the Crimea and the Donbas.
That is an ambitious goal that might require preemptive attacks inside Russia and on the Black Sea.
To accomplish the last two missions, Zelenskyy needs a blank check of support from a United States that can neither control its own borders nor maintain its critical infrastructure and is $33 trillion in debt.
Americans are not only to supply the money and arms to fuel Zelenskyy’s counteroffensives, but to sign onto a dangerous anti-Russian agenda that is not necessarily synonymous with one that is in the best interests of the United States.
As far as Russia goes, Vladimir Putin knows his attack was a costly mistake. It was predicated on the assumption that an appeasing, doddering Biden and a U.S. military humiliated in Afghanistan would always remain passive.
Yet Putin still believes that his blunder will not have been a fatal one if he can still destroy much of Eastern Ukraine, institutionalize what he gained in 2014, fracture NATO, propagandize the war as an existential cause of saving Mother Russia from a corrupt West, and reconfigure a new alliance with China, Iran, North Korea, and perhaps Turkey and India.
As far as the United States goes, the Biden Administration sees America’s interest as largely defined by a proxy war to defang Russia. To paraphrase, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, America will pour limitless arms into Ukraine to so weaken Russia that it will have to stay within its current borders.
Washington blithely dismisses all of Putin’s existential threats as empty nuclear saber-rattling—on the Pentagon’s assurance that wounded, cornered, and growling tigers can always be assumed to remain predictably docile.
Biden, whose family influence-peddled with Kyiv for a decade, has radically reversed his initial course.
No longer is Biden offering a free ride out of Dodge for Zelenskyy or dismissing any worry over a “minor” Russian invasion.
Biden instead now sees saving Ukraine and punishing Russia as his one shot at a redeeming accomplishment for an otherwise failed administration.
The once-pacifist American Left has embraced Ukraine as its “I told you so” proof that Vladimir Putin was really the monster that it could not find guilty in its various Russian collusion concoctions and laptop disinformation hoaxes.
The NATO nations are acting uncharacteristically defiant given the war is on their borders. They rightly fear a victorious Putin would be vengeful and not satiated.
Yet their “you go first” shipment of hodgepodge weapons to Ukraine, as well as their embarrassment over their past suicidal energy polices and slow-motion disarmament, remind us that Europeans in NATO before the war could not keep the Russians out, the Americans in, or the Germans down.
China believes it can be the real winner of the war.
Its rivals and enemies are weakened the longer the war continues. The West is depleting its arsenals. It is tiring of the cost. Rival Russia is bleeding, selling Beijing cheap oil and begging for its weapons.
Neither Europe nor America, China believes, will want to repeat another proxy war—say, one over Taiwan—against a nuclear power with far more leverage over the West and far greater wherewithal on the battlefield.
Iran is selling drones to Russia.
Tehran expects a desperate Putin to sell it all the enriched uranium it needs, prevent a preemptive strike on Tehran, and end Moscow’s Syrian wink-and-nod policy with Israel.
India, like Turkey, likes newfound cheap Russian oil.
It feels a proximate Russia and China are better entertained than a distant and provocative, but increasingly internally divided and weakened, United States.
Turkey is suddenly booming with cheap oil and a big arms appetite from Russia.
It feels rich and illiberal China and Russia both fear Turkey’s export of Islamism and seem better allies than the loud-talking but declining West.
North Korea sees only positives in Western distraction in Ukraine.
It counts that its nuclear recklessness is seen as a valuable irritant by both Russia and China.
The longer this preview war goes on, the surer will follow the nightmarish main attraction.
We told them the COVID bivalent boosters (BA.4/.5 sub-variant/clade) will fail, as usual, did not listen, & it DID fail & again I present 2 examples; CDC, NIH, FDA etc. scientists are idiots, morons
We have written and publicly stated this and Venden Bossche leads in this that the COVID-19 virus (basically any respiratory virus e.g. the flu) evolves and adapts way too quickly to be able to develop boosters that can handle newly emerging variants. This is basic immunology and vaccinology and it behooves us as to how inept and stupid the vaccine developers and FDA officials are. You can never EVER get ahead of a mutating respiratory virus with a vaccine, PERIOD! Especially if you are placing the target antigens under selective pressure as we have done day one with COVID virus. Such vaccines cannot be approved fast enough to keep in step with the steady and rapid mutations especially accumulating on the infectiousness of the virus, namely the epitopes (binding areas/domains) on the spike protein.
As long as you mass vaccinate into the teeth of a pandemic in terms of when there is massive infectious pressure due to circulating virus, and people are exposed immediately post vaccination, then the induced vaccinal antibodies will not have the time needed to develop what we call ‘full affinity’ or maximal binding capacity to the target antigen (epitopes) so that they can neutralize/sterilize the virus. They (vaccinal antibodies) can still bind the virus but not neutralize the virus. Natural selection will ensue where selective pressure will select for the most infectious variants that will go on to become the new dominant variant (s). This sub-optimal immune pressure drives viral immune escape and we will see original antigenic sin (immune fixation or priming or imprinting), antibody-dependent enhancement of infection (and or disease), immune tolerance (class-switch to IgG4 antibody class).
‘Our data indicate that both monovalent and bivalent mRNA boosters markedly increased antibody responses but did not substantially augment T-cell responses. Neutralizing antibody titers against the ancestral strain of SARS-CoV-2 were higher than titers against BA.5 after both monovalent and bivalent boosting.’
‘Boosting with new bivalent mRNA vaccines targeting both the BA.4–BA.5 variant and the D614G strain did not elicit a discernibly superior virus-neutralizing peak antibody response as compared with boosting with the original monovalent vaccines.’
Karen Kingston is one woman, with other strong women, showing that the three letter agencies like CDC etc. do not have any authority over the health of Americans
Karen Kingston joins Stew to share how her work in Collier County Florida PROVED that Pfizer produced bioweapon injections with the help of the government! Through presenting her evidence and sharing a powerful testimony, Karen was able to convince Commissioner Chris Hall to stop the $1.4 million in NIH funding to the CDC! Idaho passed a law stating that administering mRNA vaccines will result in a misdemeanor, but is this enough to stop the shots? Karen believes we can’t rely on politicians to make a change, and that citizens need to unite against Big Pharma! Karen is fighting in multiple states to file criminal charges against the vaccine shills who injured thousands with the injection! Will the criminal charges finally create a foothold in the battle against the bioweapons?
final diagnoses was consistent with a vaccine injury syndrome including myocardial infarction, worsening heart failure etc.; 5 had acute myocarditis as causing death without detection of another cause
i)35 initial sudden deaths within 20 days of mRNA COVID gene injection
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
ii)10 removed as not linked to vaccine, leaving 25, meaning 70% of persons who die within 20 days post COVID vaccine, the vaccine is the leading etiological likely causative agent
iii)in approximately 20% of the 25, researchers concluded death was due to ‘acute (epi-)myocarditis without detection of another significant disease or health constellation that may have caused an unexpected death.’
iv)researchers reported that ‘histology showed patchy interstitial myocardial T-lymphocytic infiltration, predominantly of the CD4 positive subset, associated with mild myocyte damage.’
v) ‘overall, autopsy findings indicated death due to acute arrhythmogenic cardiac failure.’
The research lead Schwab et al. to conclude that myocarditis is likely a lethal complication post mRNA technology gene injection (anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination).
If you’re like me you just heard of him. I learned of him yesterday. Doug was an American bodybuilder, fitness coach and author. Most known for winning the AAU Mr. Universe title in 1986. Unfortunately, Doug passed away in October 2022 at the age of 63 in his sleep.
Why is Doug News?
In 2021, Doug Brignole, a fitness expert and bodybuilder, publicly announced his COVID-19 vaccination on social media and encouraged his followers to do the same.
“We’re all in this together, so let’s do our share to beat it.”
He added in a comment on his Facebook post: “I have enough confidence in the vaccine, based on my research, to get it done. Those of you who think the vaccine kills people can use me as a test. If I die, you were right.”
Eight months later, Doug died in his sleep. Social media users dug up his old Facebook posts and started putting the pieces together – Doug died from the vaccine. There were many posts, for example:
All those ‘anti-vax’ posts led to the media to defend Pfizer at all costs – they released a flurry of ‘fact check’ articles blaming his death on COVID-19 infection, not the vaccine.
For reference here are some of the ‘fact check’ headlines:
They all based this claim on the Los Angeles County Medical Examiners report which listed his death as ‘natural’ and caused by COVID-19 infection. However at the bottom of the report, ‘Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease’ is listed as ‘Other Significant Conditions’ that led to his death.
Atherosclerosis happens when plaque builds up inside the arteries, causing them to narrow and harden. This plaque is made up of substances such as cholesterol, calcium, fat, and other cellular waste products. Over time, the plaque buildup can restrict blood flow to vital organs and tissues, leading to various health problems such as heart attack, stroke, and peripheral artery disease.
There are many risk factors for atherosclerosis – such as high cholesterol, smoking, diabetes, obesity, sedentary lifestyle, etc. None of which an active bodybuilder and fitness coach had. In fact, before his death, he was training to appear in the Amateur Athletic Union event in Las Vegas. He appeared perfectly healthy.
By Inflammation. We’ve learned from studies, clinical data and autopsies that the mRNA vaccines cause massive amounts of inflammation in the body.
Inflammation also plays a major role in the development and progression of atherosclerosis. When the inner lining of an artery is damaged, immune cells and other inflammatory cells are sent to the site of injury. These cells release chemicals that cause the artery wall to become inflamed, which can lead to the formation of plaque.
Inflammation can also cause the plaque to become unstable and more likely to rupture, which can trigger the formation of blood clots that can block blood flow to the heart or brain, leading to a heart attack or stroke.
Now which is more likely?
A) A healthy 63-year-old dies in his sleep from COVID-19 symptoms or
B) A healthy 63-year-old dies in his sleep from a blood clot caused by the mRNA vaccines?
This could appear as a natural death to the LA County Corner. An older 63-year-old with COVID-19 with evidence of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease. However questions need to be asked of the deceased. A healthy 63-year-old, presumably under medical care, with no risk factors and is a body builder needs additional questions – ones that were not asked.
The normal development of atherosclerosis is a slow and gradual process. In most cases, it takes several decades for significant plaque buildup to occur in the arteries. Regular check-ups detect early signs of atherosclerosis and allow for interventions to prevent further progression.
Are we really to assume a fitness coach did not have a doctor or regular medical check-ups. They are pulling the wool over your eyes, again.
There is enough evidence here that the family should have requested a private autopsy performed by a forensic pathologist instead of a medical examiner to determine if the vaccine played a role in Mr. Brignole’s death.
What do you think? Are we right? Did the vaccine play a role in Doug Brignole’s death? Remember he requested that we use him as a test.
cross-dresser drag queen leader in Ukraine, I think it is vile that Biden did not go to Ohio yet went to Ukraine, I think it’s dangerous Biden admin taking us to WW III; it is their fever, not ours
What I told them, I hope I do not offend you. I wanted to tell my side of the story of why it went side ways with me and CDC and NIH…yes, I called for all of them to be fired! They did not like that
1)nothing here is accurate or true and they never talked to me
2) it went downhill with me and CDC when in a high level meeting that had CDC and NIH top brass there and all the lead folk and they were talking about masks and keeping schools closed and their views. I did not agree and was stunned at how stupid and inept they were, the garbage they were saying and just pure morons and they clearly no matter their titles, knew what they were saying. They had no understanding of data or how to read data or research. Each time I corrected them and showed them their interpretation of the research was wrong and each time I made the case to open schools and stop masks etc., many attacked me…and were very hostile. So I got up and someone who was leading the meeting said “Dr. Alexander, are you leaving” and I said “yes, I think you all here, I am stunned for you come from CDC and NIH and you are supposed to be among the brightest in the nation, yet we are in a pandemic and you are arguing over garbage and seem to not be interested in saving lives and have no clue what you are saying and do not understand basic data or research and seem very unqualified and personally, based on your attacks on me and the vile filth on the President, your remarks, after sitting here, I think you all are a bunch of stupid cu**s” para and I left. I am not one to curse like that (well, most of the times) but they drove me to it. I felt good too. You have no idea. Needless to say I was never asked to such a meeting with them again and I was told I am in their cross hairs. I was told top brass at CDC and NIH despised me. The feeling was mutual for I was witnessing and being told how much they were subverting the President.
I looked at this report by the select subcommittee and they failed to mention that. What I told them.
VACCINE IMPACT//
DOJ and FTC go After Big Tech and Their Apps for Selling Personal Medical Data
February 23, 2023 5:00 pm
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced yesterday that together with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) they had reached a settlement with GoodRx Holdings Inc., which markets an online prescription drug app, GoodRx. They settled for $1.5 million after they filed a complaint earlier this month alleging that GoodRx had disclosed millions of users’ personal health information to third parties without the users’ authorization, consent, or knowledge. Rebecca Pifer, writing for HealthCareDive.com, states that this is the first time the FTC has taken action against Big Tech by using the “Health Breach Notification Rule” which was passed in 2010, and signifies the U.S. Government’s intent to start going after more online digital health companies who sell users’ personal health information without their consent.
Triple COVID Vaxxed 25-Year-Old Medical Doctor Dies Suddenly – 132 Canadian Doctors Have Now Died Since COVID Vaccine Roll Out
February 23, 2023 8:33 pm
Dr. Anthony Emanuel Chifor grew up in Windsor, Ontario. His family, like mine, was from Slovakia and had emigrated to Canada to find a better life. He graduated from University of Windsor where he was celebrated as an Outstanding Scholar and a Lead Gold Medallion Scholar, earning his B.Sc. in Biology and Biochemistry with Great Distinction and was part of the Dean’s Honour Roll. He was studying medicine at Wayne State University School of Medicine, in Detroit Michigan (USA), when he was forced to take three COVID-19 vaccines to continue his medical training. He was in the process of completing his 3rd year of medical school when he died suddenly at the age of 25, on January 17, 2023. He is currently the youngest Canadian doctor death in my database. According to my research, deaths of Canadian doctors under the age of 30 increased by 900% in 2022 compared to the 2019-2020 average. His medical school continues to enforce its COVID-19 vaccine mandate.
First time on a mainstream news channel – incredible interview here of Ed Dowd discussing the huge number of excess deaths caused by the vaccines. Dowd is compelling as a sober Wall St data guy. It’s finally breaking into the mainstream. Unfortunately a lot of people on the left discount Tucker Carlson because he is a racist or something … typical closed mindedness . This is a masterful interview with lots of gems sprinkled throughout, especially in the last few minutes. Well worth your time to watch.
First time on a mainstream news channel – incredible interview here of Ed Dowd discussing the huge number of excess deaths caused by the vaccines. Dowd is compelling as a sober Wall St data guy. It’s finally breaking into the mainstream. Unfortunately a lot of people on the left discount Tucker Carlson because he is a racist or something … typical closed mindedness . This is a masterful interview with lots of gems sprinkled throughout, especially in the last few minutes. Well worth your time to watch
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.9562)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9762
TURKISH LIRA: 18.88 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.499…VERY DANGEREOUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.950% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.937 UP 6 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 4.8115 UP 12 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 105.18 UP64 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 29.06 PTS OR 0.37%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 265.95 POINTS OR 1.72 %
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 130.16PTS OR 1.78%
Spain IBEX DOWN 30.10POINTS OR 0.33%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 291.27 PTS OR 1.67%
WTI Oil price 76.12 12: EST
Brent Oil: 83.00 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// UP TO: 76,13/ ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 13/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.533
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.683 UP 9 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0551 DOWN 0.0046 OR 46 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.1948 DOWN .0009 or 9 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.7870% UP 17 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.43 UP 1.798////YEN DOWN 180 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3608 UP .0064 (CDN dollar, DOWN 64 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 76.57
Brent OIL: 83.22
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 3.943%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 3.930% (30 YR INVERTS TO 10 YEAR)
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 11 PTS AT 2.8033%
USA dollar index: 105.16 UP 62 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.88
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.13 DOWN 1 0 AND 13/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 336.99 PTS OR 1.02%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 210.49 PTS OR 1.73%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 21.68 UP .54 PTS (2.55)%
GLD: $168.35 DOWN 1.21 OR 0.71%
SLV/ $19.09 DOWN 0,54 OR 1.75%
end)
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Bonds, Stocks, & Bitcoin Battered By (G)Rate Expectations Repricing
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 04:00 PM
A week of hotter than expected data (especially in stickier-than-expected inflation-related data)…
Source: Bloomberg
…has driven inflation expectations roaring back to cycle highs as the ‘Fed Pivot’ narrative collapses…
Source: Bloomberg
…and that has sent terminal-rate expectations spiking to cycle highs (and the expectations for any imminent rate-cuts evaporated)…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s Chris Hussey summarizes the flip-flop perfectly:
As we went through January, evidence mounted that inflation was indeed receding in the US and perhaps the coast was clearing for monetary policy, a soft landing of the economy, and perhaps even a reacceleration of activity with a boost from Europe and China.
But two reports in successive weeks here in February have called that narrative into question…
…led Goldman’s economists to add an additional 25bp rate hike from the Fed, and pushed up yields on 10-year Treasuries by 60bp to 3.95% – nearing the top-end range we have seen in this cycle (yields peaked at 4.23% in October).
Today’s higher than expected PCE inflation reading seems to confirm what we saw in last week’s high PPI wholesale inflation report – that is that prices are continuing to rise in the US and that the rate of increase may not be receding as fast as it had been last fall (if the rate is receding at all)…
…policymakers – notably central bankers – have indicated that they are for the most part data dependent, providing further support to the view that we are in a higher-for-longer rate environment.
And while we had already seen Bonds, the dollar, and gold all reverse their trends from January, it wasn’t until this week that we saw stocks actually begin to catch down to that more hawkish reality…
Source: Bloomberg
All the US Majors ended the holiday-shortened week in the red (Dow’s worst week since September), down around 3%…
The Dow ended the week in the red for 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
The S&P 500 closed below its 50DMA, trapped in a range just above its 200DMA…
The Nasdaq found support at its 200DMA for the last two days…
Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors were the ugliest horse in this week’s glue factory and Energy stocks the best, eking out a tiny gain for the week…
Source: Bloomberg
In a replay of yesterday, 0DTE players went on offense to start the day, buying calls with both hands and feet but that surge was unable to ignite enough momentum to spark a squeeze higher and so calls were dumped…
Treasury yields were higher across the curve this week with the short-end underperforming. 30Y yields actually dipped lower on the week at one point but today’s carnage following the hot PCE print dragged everything higher (in yield)…
Source: Bloomberg
Which sent the yield curve (2s30s) to fresh cycle lows
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-hike odds for March, May, and June all surged hawkishly this week with March now pricing in a 20-25% chance of a 50bps hike (and May fully pricing in a 25bps hike)…
Source: Bloomberg
Which means the market is fully pricing in 75bps of hikes in the next 3 FOMC meetings…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ripped higher this week, erasing all the losses since the January payrolls plunge…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin battled away around $23k again but ended with the worst week since November…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was down for the 5th straight week, but held above $1800 for now…
Oil prices ended the week unchanged (after a big dip mid-week and another puke today)…
After falling for 9 of the 10 weeks, US NatGas prices soared higher this week (after first hitting a $1 handle) – the biggest weekly rise for Henry Hub since Thanksgiving…
Finally, in the year since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Russian Ruble has strengthened 11% against the USDollar, Brent Crude is down 16% and EU NatGas has crashed 55%…
Source: Bloomberg
Not sure many would have bet on that series of outcomes a year ago.
END.
EARLY MORNING TRADING//INFLATION REPORT/PCE
Stocks & Bonds Slammed After Hot Inflation Print, Rate-Hike Odds Soar
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 08:56 AM
A much hotter than expected Core PCE print has sparked a dramatic hawkish response across markets.
Expectations for The Fed’s terminal rate has spiked to 5.39% and H2 2023 rate-cut expectations have dwindled to single-digits (just 9bps priced in)…
The market is now fully pricing in 3 x 25bps rate-hikes at the next three FOMC meetings…
With the odds of a 50bps hike in March now up at around 25% (and a 25bps hike fully priced-in for
All of which sent stocks reeling, below yesterday’s lows…
And Treasury yields soaring higher at the short-end while the long-end has rallied (yields slower post-PCE)…
The yield curve (5s10s) is inverting deeper and deeper (pricing in recession/Fed policy error)…
With 2Y yields pushing to fresh cycle highs (highest since July 2007)…
The dollar is surging higher, erasing all of the losses since the January Payrolls slump…
Will the 0DTE gamers BTFD in stocks again?
-END-
ii) USA DATA
PCE is hot but you should not pay much attention to the data as there are many revisions
(zerohedge)
Fed’s Favorite Inflation Signal Prints Hot As Americans’ Spending Surged In Jan
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 08:39 AM
After two months in a row of MoM declines in spending, consensus forecasts both spending and incomes grew MoM in January and they were right but income grew by only 0.6% (+1.0% exp) while spending rose more than expected (+1.8% vs +1.4% exp). That is the biggest monthly jump in spending since March 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
And on a YoY basis, both income and spending accelerated in January…
Source: Bloomberg
The biggest driver of the MoM jump in PCE was Housing and Other Services…
Source: Bloomberg
Housing and Transportation are the biggest YoY drivers of PCE…
Source: Bloomberg
On the income side wages for private workers accelerated for the first time in 4 months, up 6.9% Y/Y, from 6.3% in Dec, but wage growth for govt workers slowed to 5.0% Y/Y, from 5.1%
Americans’ savings rate is now at 4.7%, up from 4.5% in Dec which was revised significantly higher (from 3.4% in Dec)…
The revisions are dramatic to say the least: what was 2.7% in Nov has become 4.0% and Jan is now 4.7%
But the real highlight of the report is the inflation signals from The Fed’s favorite Core PCE Deflator.. and it was not good news. Both the headline and core PCE Deflators printed hotter than expected, rising 5.4% YoY and 4.7% YoY respectively ( +5.0% and 4.3% exp respectively)…
Source: Bloomberg
So much for that ‘smooth’; ride lower in inflation that everyone hoped for.
Finally, we note that the market has dramatically repriced its inflation expectations (inflation swaps) in recent weeks, now at their highest for mid-2023 since November…
Source: Bloomberg
It seems the market may be on to something… and that’s not good for markets.
END
Total fictitious number. High interest rates and in the dead of winter?
(zerohedge)
US New Home Sales Unexpectedly Soared In January As Prices Plunge
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 10:09 AM
Before we dig into this morning’s new home sales data, we note that both homebuilders and homebuyers have seen a rebound in confidence this year (even though the latter remains near extreme lows as one would expect)…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite soaring mortgage rates, mass layoffs, and barely perceptible price drops, new home sales have risen for the past three months and were expected to rise once again in January (despite an ongoing slump in existing home sales)… and they did – soaring a ridiculous 7.2% MoM (against expectations of a 0.7% MoM rise) and left sales down 19.4% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
The surge in sales was driven almost entirely by purchases in the South, and the print was far above even the rosiest of forecasts.
That leaves the new home sales SAAR at 670k – the highest since March 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
The median new home price tumbled from $465.6k to $427.5k…
New home prices are catching down to existing home prices…
Is this what Powell wants?
end
Interesting: U Mich inflation expectations rose in Feb. Sentiment soars only for Republicans?
(zerohedge)
UMich Inflation Expectations Rose In Feb, Sentiment Soars For Republicans
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 10:19 AM
The headline from the University of Michigan sentiment survey continues to be inflation expectations. After the preliminary February print showed an unexpected rebound in short-term inflation expectations, all eyes were on today’s final print which slipped a little from flash but is still higher MoM (4.1% final vs 4.2% flash vs 3.9% prior)…
Source: Bloomberg
Consumer sentiment confirmed the preliminary February reading, rising a modest 3% above January. After lifting for the third consecutive month, sentiment is now 17 index points above the all-time low from June 2022 but remains almost 20 points below its historical average.
Source: Bloomberg
Consumers with larger stock holdings exhibited particularly large increases in sentiment. Overall, February’s reading was supported by a 12% improvement in the short-run economic outlook, while all other index components were essentially unchanged.
Buying Conditions held on to their modest improvements off the lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that Republicans and Independents are seeing sentiment soar in recent months while Democrats’ confidence has been flat…
Source: Bloomberg
So overall, add this to the list of things that don’t support a Fed pivot!
end
As indicated above do not pay much attention to today’s data on spending/inflation as all of the huge increase came from revisions
(zerohedge)
Here’s Where The Surge In January Spending And Inflation Came From: Biggest Tax Drop In History
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 10:40 AM
Many were expecting today’s Personal Income/Spending/PCE report to come in a little above consensus expectations. Few expected the red hot numbers just published by the BEA.
First, as noted earlier, personal spending soared by 1.8%, well above the already hot expectations of 1.4%, and the biggest jump since March 2021. This came as personal income rose by just 0.6% (below the 1.0% expected).
So far so good, but what makes historical comps difficult is that in January, there was a comprehensive overhaul of the underlying data. As the BEA notes, “for July through September, estimates for compensation, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance reflect the incorporation of updated third-quarter wage and salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.”
Which means that January data was unique in that it was based on revised historical data, while layering on top new numbers for January, which also incorporate several fundamental changes as a result of the new year.
Before we get deeper into the weeds, we’ll note that this surge in Personal Savings coupled with a modest increase in Spending led to a burst in PCE inflation. Indeed, as Bloomberg notes, the gauge that Powell has been looking at lately, core service-sector inflation excluding housing, picked up last month, rose 0.58% from December, which is the biggest gain since back in 2021!
And then something odd: even though spending surged much more than income – thus boosting Personal Consumption Expenditures (i.e., inflation), the savings rate paradoxically surged. In fact it surged for the 2nd month in a row, because just one month ago, the savings rate was also revised sharply higher.
Below we show a zoomed in snapshot of how the November, December and January savings rates (post revisions) look now. The take home message: November’s savings rate has been “adjusted” from 2.4% (or $461BN in savings), to 4.0% just two months later (or $761BN), and has since grown to 4.7% (or $918BN). And that’s how you almost double America’s savings rate, if only in an excel spreadsheet.
So what happened? Well, below we show the data as reported in November, December and January (which incorporate the big revision) for Personal Income (broken down between Private and Government Wages and Salaries), Disposable Personal Income, Personal Outlays and, finally, Personal Savings and the Personal Savings Rate.
In the chart above, note that while both private and government wages and salaries rose notably in January, in part due to Social Security COLA adjustments and new minimum wages for 2023, this was nothing compared to the surge in personal income and outlays, which we have highlighted in red.
Why did personal income (and thus outlays, savings and PCE/inflation) all surge so much more than income?
The answer: taxes collapsed.
As shown in the chart below, the BEA reports that in January, total personal current taxes collapsed by a record (in dollar terms), and near-record (in percentage terms): from $3.223.9BN to just $2.968BN (both presented on a SAAR basis).
Here is the personal current tax data over a longer time frame (feel free to play with this on your own Bloomberg terminal: PIDSPTAX Index GP <go>)…
… and the monthly change in $ terms: the $256BN tax drop in January was the biggest in history, surpassing the plunge from the March 2020 covid crash and the Jan 2009 Global Financial Crisis crash!
So what’s the deal: have Democrats quietly become the party of tax cuts? Or is the economy quietly suffering through a slowdown that is worse than both the global financial crisis and the covid lockdown?
We doubt any of those two explains what’s happening: instead, the likely answer is some combination of state tax cuts, changes in income brackets, seasonal approximations and extrapolations of actual tax payments, and other components we hope to quantify soon.
Meanwhile, unaware of the unique one-time adjustments behind today’s red-hot data, the market has darted out of the barn and is already pricing in rate hikes in March, May and June and has boosted the risk of a 50bps rate hike in the next meeting!
The bottom line, however, is that just like JPM raged about seasonal adjustments overnight, hinting that underlying data no longer makes any sense, so today’s personal income/spending data should be taken with a giant grain of salt, and that the “numbers” resulting from the combination of various historical revisions, seasonal adjustments, and approximations which have magically doubled the amount of money Americans have allegedly saved, boosting both headline and core PCE, are at best a one-month adjustment, one which will promptly revert to the “higher for much longer” tax trendline, which in turn will translate into lower spending, savings and, of course, consumption in the coming months.
end
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS
A good one from Michael Snyder:
(Michael Snyder)
What Do These 10 Crime-Ridden Cities All Have In Common?
All over America, crime has started to spiral out of control. But of course some areas are much worse than others. In particular, many of our most important core urban areas have degenerated into drug-infested, crime-ridden hellholes. Some pundits are using the term “war zones” to describe what is taking place in these areas, and unfortunately that is not an exaggeration. Once upon a time, the United States was one of the most civilized societies that the world had ever seen, but now we have become a cautionary tale to the rest of the planet. The fabric of our society is steadily decaying all around us, and if we stay on the path that we are on things will only continue to get even worse.
In this article I am going to share with you 10 examples that demonstrate what I am talking about, and then at the end of the article I will reveal what all 10 examples have in common.
One person was killed and 10 were injured early Sunday after a shooting in Tennessee, according to a news release from the Memphis Police Department posted on Twitter.
Police released photos of three men they said are persons of interest shortly before noon on Sunday. One of the men may have been injured and in need of medical attention, according to police.
#2 Portland was once one of the most beautiful cities on the entire planet, but now addicts openly get high on Portland buses…
#3 In New York City, organized retail theft has become really big business. And after having so much success in recent years, the thieves are starting to become extremely brazen…
The New York Police Department released footage on Thursday of four thieves who robbed a Givenchy store in Manhattan in a brazen dawn raid, smashing their way in with a hammer and fleeing on foot with $50,000 worth of goods.
The three men and one woman broke into the SoHo store at 7:30am on Saturday, NYPD said.
#4 Philadelphia has been a violent place for a long time, but what we are witnessing now is truly frightening. On Saturday night, one police officer was ruthlessly shot in the head by an 18-year-old kid…
An 18-year-old man was arrested for fatally shooting a Philadelphia police officer in the head – before trying to steal his gun on Saturday night.
Miles Pfeffer, 18, is accused of shooting Temple University cop Chris Fitzgerald, 31, multiple times before going through his pockets and trying to steal his gun, according to the Philadelphia District Attorney’s Office.
#5 Seattle used to be different from other cities. In the old days, you could take your family down to the center of Seattle without fearing for your life. But now crimes of extreme violence have become quite common…
The violence meted out against a 29-year-old man in a restaurant parking lot on Aurora Avenue North last week was both “excessive and alarming,” according to King County prosecutors, who on Wednesday charged a 44-year-old man in the younger man’s death.
Jorge Ardon Herrera suffered at least 20 injuries to his head, including multiple jaw fractures, according to the second-degree murder charge filed against Juan Manuel Gamez-Gamez.
#6 Washington D.C. once had “good areas” and “bad areas”. Unfortunately, almost everywhere in D.C. is a “bad area” now. Just recently, authorities finally cleaned up an open air drug market that was operating very close to the White House “after months of promising to do so”…
The National Park Service (NPS) has cleared a dangerous homeless encampment in Washington, D.C.’s McPherson Square after months of promising to do so.
The city requested that NPS clear the park, which is situated just blocks from the White House, after three overdose deaths occurred in the last six months. The homeless people living in the camp were made aware that the city intended to have the park cleared in April, but the eviction date was moved up to Wednesday due to “high levels of illegal drug activity and other dangerous and unsafe activities,” according to the Washington Post.
#7 San Francisco has become world famous for the drug abuse that goes on in that city. Earlier this month, a house where illegal drugs were being manufactured literally exploded…
An arrest has been made on Friday in the house explosion that occurred Thursday in San Francisco’s Outer Sunset neighborhood, according to law enforcement.
Darron Price, a 53-year-old resident, was booked for manslaughter, manufacturing drugs and two counts of child endangerment.
Neighbors continued to clean up their homes Friday evening following the deadly explosion.
“The extent of the glass that was in the house was unbelievable. We picked up two garbage cans of glass and we’re still picking up glass,” said Jack Noriega.
#8 In Los Angeles, the criminals no longer have respect for anyone. In fact, a Catholic bishop was just brutally murdered right inside his own home…
The shooting death of a Catholic bishop hailed as a ‘peacemaker’ in his predominantly Hispanic neighborhood is being treated as a homicide, police in the City of Angels said – a day after deeming the incident ‘suspicious.’
Revealed in a statement from the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Office on Sunday, the murder probe comes roughly 24 hours after the high-ranking bishop, 69-year-old David O’Connell, was gunned down inside his Hacienda Heights home by an unknown assailant.
#9 When I was growing up, I was always told that you “don’t mess with Texas”. But these days the criminals in Austin, Texas have the police on the run…
#10 I certainly couldn’t do an article like this without mentioning Chicago. At this point, it is far more dangerous to be a young man in some areas of Chicago than it is to go to war…
For more than a decade, some people have used the term “Chiraq” — a mashup of Chicago and Iraq — to describe a city whose violence makes some neighborhoods feel like battle zones.
Now, researchers say they’ve found that some parts of Chicago are even deadlier for military-aged young men than what U.S. soldiers faced in war zones in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The risk of a man 18 to 29 years old dying in a shooting in the most violent ZIP code in Chicago — 60624, a swath of the West Side that includes Garfield Park — was higher than the death rate for U.S. soldiers in the Afghanistan war or for soldiers in an Army combat brigade that fought in Iraq, according to a study published in the medical journal JAMA Network Open.
So what do every single one of these examples have in common?
In each case, the city is run by Democrats.
Our major cities did not become drug-infested, crime-ridden hellholes by accident.
Doing the wrong things leads to the wrong results.
It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.
end
EAST PALESTINE DISASTER UPDATES
Toxic Wastewater From Ohio Train Derailment Headed To Texas
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 06:00 PM
Recaptured toxic wastewater that was used to extinguish a fire after a Feb. 3 train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio is now headed to a Houston, Texas suburb for disposal, according to a top official from Harris County.
“I and my office heard today that ‘firefighting water’ from the East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment is slated to be disposed of in our county,” said Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo in a Wednesday statement on Twitter. “Our Harris County Pollution Control Department and Harris County Attorney’s Office have reached out to the company and the Environmental Protection Agency to receive more information about the timing, transportation mechanisms, and contents, as well as to ensure all regulations are being met.”
Further details were not provided, though Hidalgo said that her office is working closely with the mayor of Deer Park, Texas.
“I have communicated with Deer Park Emergency Management and Mayor [Jerry] Mouton and am very sensitive to the concerns that this news naturally brings to our community,” Hildago’s statement continues. “We will keep residents informed as we learn more.”
The wastewater is headed to Texas Molecular, which has a process for injecting hazardous waste into the ground for disposal. This comes on the heels of a statement by Ohio EPA officials, who said that the chemicals used to put out the fire may have seeped into the Ohio River – partially forming into a plume of chemicals that is moving downstream.
According to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, Texas Molecular “is authorized to accept and manage a variety of waste streams, including vinyl chloride, as part of their … hazardous waste permit and underground injection control permit,” which includes vinyl chloride – one of the ingredients carried by the train when it derailed.
“Our technology safely removes hazardous constituents from the biosphere. We are part of the solution to reduce risk and protect the environment, whether in our local area or other places that need the capabilities we offer to protect the environment,” Texas Molecular said in a statement to KHOU-TV.
The company will inject the water extremely deep into the earth.
“This injection, in some cases, is usually 4,000 or 5,000 feet down below any kind of drinking water aquifer,” said George Guillen, the executive director of the Environmental Institute of Houston who holds a doctorate in environmental science, who says the risk to the public is minimal despite it being “very, very toxic” material.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who visited the derailment site Thursday, has warned the railroad responsible for the derailment, Norfolk Southern, to fulfill its promises to clean up the mess just outside East Palestine, Ohio, and help the town recover.
The three-dozen Norfolk Southern train cars that derailed earlier this month had “11 tank cars carrying hazardous materials that subsequently ignited, fueling fires that damaged an additional 12 non-derailed railcars,” the National Transportation Safety Board said Thursday. Five of the derailed cars were carrying about 115,580 gallons of vinyl chloride, the report found.
The five cars with the toxic substance “continued to concern authorities because the temperature inside one tank car was still rising,” which could have resulted in an explosion, the report also found. When the controlled release and burn were initiated, officials forced locals in East Palestine to evacuate before allowing them to return days later.
END
Huge number of defaults on loans in the commercial USA real estate due to rising interest rates
(zerohedge)
Facing “Unprecedented Challenges” And Soaring Rates, PIMCO-Owned Landlord Defaults On $1.7 Billion In Office Mortgages
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 10:40 PM
Amid the recent record surge in interest rates, the residential housing market may have frozen – as the gap between bids and asks stretches to unprecedented levels – but it is hardly in freefall, courtesy of several years of ultra-low rates which allowed homeowners to lock in low rates for the foreseeable future, even if it means aspiring and new homeowners remain locked out indefinitely of a housing market that has never been more unaffordable (and instead are forced to rent).
But while the residential housing market may be relatively immune against the adverse consequences of soaring rates – if only for a finite period of time – the same can not be said about commercial real estate, where the impact of higher (or lower) rates is transmitted much faster. It’s also why the commercial real estate sector is seeing unprecedented pain. A recent example was the bankruptcy of the iconic Times Square Crowne Plaza hotel, located at 1601 Broadway, which as we noted two months ago, reported some 88,000 square feet, or 45% of the office space at this address, was vacant, forcing owners Vornado Realty Trust to take a big L on the property.
Furthermore, as we also mused rhetorically…
Is this the first major commercial real estate domino to fall in the aftermath of covid’s “work from home” revolution?
… the answer was clearly yes, and with every day that rates continue rising to multi-decade highs, the headaches for commercial real estate will only grow.
Fast forward to today, when Bloomberg reports that an office landlord controlled by bond giant PIMCO has defaulted on about $1.7 billion of mortgage notes on seven buildings, “a sign of widening pain for the industry as property values fall and rising interest rates squeeze borrowers.”
The buildings — in San Francisco, New York, Boston and Jersey City, New Jersey — are owned by Columbia Property Trust, which was acquired in 2021 for $3.9 billion by funds managed by Pimco. The mortgages have floating-rate debt, which led to rising monthly payments as interest rates soared last year.
“We, like most office owners, are addressing the unique and unprecedented challenges currently facing our asset class and customer base,” Justina Lombardo, a spokesperson for Columbia Property Trust, said in an emailed statement. “We have engaged with our lenders on a restructuring of our loan on seven properties within our larger national portfolio. We look forward to a collaborative process yielding thoughtful solutions that reflect current market conditions and best serve the interests of all stakeholders.”
Some more details on the offices in question: a San Francisco building at 650 California St., built in 1964, is the most valuable property in the portfolio at $479 million, according to 2021 figures. Other properties include 229 W. 43rd St., 245-249 W. 17th St. and 315 Park Ave. South in Manhattan, 201 California St. in San Francisco, 116 Huntington Ave. in Boston and 95 Christopher Columbus Drive in Jersey City.650 California Street building in San Francisco
As discussed two months ago, US offices, especially the older buildings with fewer amenities, have struggled in recent years to retain tennants amid the rise of remote work during the pandemic and recent layoffs. According to Green Street, values of those properties have fallen 20% since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020,
The seven buildings owned by Columbia Property Trust were appraised at $2.27 billion in 2021, according to loan documents on a $485 million CMBS that financed part of the debt. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Inc. and Deutsche Bank funded the original debt of almost $1.9 billion.
The Columbia default follows two weeks after Brookfield Corp., parent of the largest office landlord in downtown Los Angeles, defaulted on loans tied to two buildings rather than refinancing the debt as demand for space weakens in the center of the second-largest US city.
The two properties in default, part of a portfolio called Brookfield DTLA Fund Office Trust Investor, are the Gas Company Tower, with $465 million in loans, and the 777 Tower, with about $290 million in debt, according to a filing. The fund manager had warned in November that it may face foreclosure on properties.777 Tower in Los AngelesPhotographer: Carol M. Highsmith Photography/Library of Congress
The values of comparable office buildings have broadly dropped, according to the Barclays analysts. Office vacancies have increased across the country since the pandemic made working remotely more routine. The vacancy rate in the Los Angeles central business district vacancy rate was 22.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to a Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. report.
As Bloomberg reports, Brookfield had the option to extend the maturity on the loans tied to the Gas Company Tower, but elected not to. It also elected not to get interest-rate protection that was required for loans for the 777 Tower property, which amounts to an event of default, the company’s latest filing said.
The Brookfield DTLA portfolio has a total of $2.28 billion in secured debt, according to a November filing. Other buildings with maturing debt include the Wells Fargo Centers North Tower with $500 million in debt due in October and the Wells Fargo Centers South Tower with $263 million maturing in November. The buildings have about $1.8 billion of floating-rate obligations, generally hedged with interest-rate derivatives, which can translate to increased payments as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
The lenders have not foreclosed on the two properties or exercised other remedies available to them, according to Brookfield’s filing. In January, Oaktree Capital Management wrested control of the building known for providing the exterior shots for the main office in the television series “L.A. Law” after the owner, Coretrust Capital Partners, went into default on a loan tied to the property.
Still, despite the recent increase in office-linked defaults, the delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities for offices is still relatively low, at just 1.83% in January, according to Trepp. It won’t stay there long if the Fed continues with its
end
What on earth is this? 100 miles south of East Palestine! The winds are north easterly
(zerohedge)
Mysterious White Dust Blankets Parts Of West Virginia
FRIDAY, FEB 24, 2023 – 12:43 PM
A Facebook page that tracks emergencies across the Panhandle of West Virginia posted multiple reports late Thursday of mysterious white dust falling from the sky and accumulating on cars and other surfaces outside.
Eastern Panhandle Working Fires said the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection “requested anybody experiencing these issues call 911 immediately and have their local fire department respond. They also advise to shut doors and windows and avoid outdoors at this time as a common sense approach until it can be identified.”
Another post by the group that has more than 100,000 followers showed Hampshire County 911 Center in Romney, West Virginia, said:
“We are aware of recent reports of an unknown dust-like substance accumulating on cars and surfaces outside. This is reportedly occurring across the tri-state region. We are aware of another social media site that has advised you to contact 911 if you witness this situation.”
Many folks from the region tweeted images and videos of the mysterious white dust, blanketing everything in sight.
Last night, temperatures in Morgantown, West Virginia, hovered around 50 degrees Fahrenheit, putting to rest any claims of snow.
There’s no word from the county, state, or federal authorities on the origin of the white dust. However, local media outlet WHSV’s Chief Meteorologist Aubrey Urbanowicz pointed out it could be from a dust storm in the Midwest.
… and another meteorologist agrees with Urbanowicz.
The reports of white dust are located about 100 miles south of the East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment.
end
3 B)USA ECONOMIC ISSUES// SUPPLY ISSUES//
Not a good sign: the economy is faltering!!
(Premack/FreightWaves)
What’s Behind The Never-Ending Freight Brokerage Layoffs
A freight broker is the intermediary between a carrier (or transportation provider, like a truck driver) and a shipper (whoever is trying to movegoods, like a retailer or manufacturer). There are also freight forwarders, who handle international shipments and the customs involved.
Such demand for merchandise translated to more freight demand. The amount of shippers calling for more transportation capacity shot up quickly in spring and summer 2020 as consumers began to spend their stimulus bucks and paychecks on durable goods, like exercise bikes and outdoor furniture. However, that freight capacity didn’t reenter the market at the same time.
That meant shippers that normally handled their freight transportation needs in-house had to go to some sort of intermediary, said Benchmark transportation analyst Chris Kuhn.
This made freight brokers unusually rich. C.H. Robinson, the Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based freight brokerage giant, saw its net income jump by 66.7% in 2021 compared to the year before.
“There was just this lack of capacity in the market,” Kuhn said. “That drove prices up to unprecedented levels.”
As a result, third-party freight companies needed to scale up their hiring, too, according to Wells Fargo senior analyst Allison Poliniak-Cusic. C.H. Robinson, for example, grew its overall head count by 43% by the end of 2021 compared to the previous year.
“I would almost call it crisis hiring,” Poliniak-Cusic told FreightWaves. “[They were] building that head count up to manage some of the unusual volatility in the market that they were dealing with at the time to make sure the customers’ issues were met.”
This bull run crashed in spring and summer 2022. Consumer demand began to moderate in early ’22, as some started spending cash on travel or other in-person services while others braced for inflation. In the months following, some of the largest freight brokers and forwarding companies have reduced head counts.
“Now that we’re hopefully past this crisis, your profit at a brokerage is likely lower, [and] your cash flow is a little bit more limited than maybe it had been during the pandemic,” Poliniak-Cusic said. “You have to probably be a little bit more disciplined on investments going forward.”
International looking especially rough
It’s a classic boom-and-bust cycle, but it’s particularly bad for a few types of intermediaries. Freight forwarders, who deal with international shipments, are especially challenged at this time. Expeditors International (NASDAQ: EXPD), one of the largest freight forwarding companies, reported particularly brutal fourth-quarter earnings Tuesday with an operating income down 47% from the year prior.
COVID-19 lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine have slammed U.S. freight companies that operate overseas.
“We were especially impacted in North Asia, our second-largest geography, as the lingering effects of the lockdowns contributed to the largest declines in our air tonnage and ocean volumes in at least a decade,” Expeditors CEO Jeffrey Musser said on the call with investors.
The spot-vs.-contract tension
There are two markets in trucking. One is the contract market, where truckloads are moved on a prearranged agreement. The second is the spot market, where truck capacity is bid on demand.
The sneaky side of trucking is that you don’t actuallyhave to honor your contracted freight as a truck driver — if you can move more expensive freight on the spot market. And shippers who have contracts with trucking companies, where rates are way above the spot price, can usually break their contracts for as long as they wish to move their loads on the spot market.
(Of course, this is not the best way to build a happy client base, so it’s best to not engage inthis too often.)
When the trucking market is hot, spot rates are usually just a few cents below or even slightly above contract rates. That indicates trucking services are in demand, though shippers may also be spending more than they previously planned for freight services. And that cost will likely trickle to the consumer.
Here’s the weird thing: Low spot rates are sometimes a win for freight brokers. The spot rate resembles what brokers pay a trucking company. So, if they can still claim the same or a slightly lower rate from the shipper, that means they can earn a larger margin.
However, the market has gotten so rough for trucking that such wins are no longer feasible. Even though margins are sweeter for brokers than they were in 2021, freight volumes are also lower than they were at that time. Brokers might be able to win a larger piece of the proverbial pie, but that pie is getting smaller.
What’s more, there are just way too many brokers for the amount of freight that needs to move right now. There’s a “crisis level” of brokers but a volume of freight that resembles pre-COVID buying patterns.
And that means layoffs.
USA COVID//
SWAMP STORIES
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THE KING REPORT
The King Report February 24, 2023 Issue 6955Independent View of the News US Q4 GDP was revised lower while Core PCE, purportedly the Fed’s favored inflation metric, was hot.US Q4 GDP 2.7%, 2.9% expected and priorConsumption 1.4%, 2% expected, 2;1% priorGDP Price Index 3.9%, 3.5% expected and priorCore PCE 4.3%, 3.9% expected and prior US Initial Jobless Claims 192k, 200k consensus, 195k prior Continuing Claims 1.654m, 1.7m consensus, 1.691m prior
@ChicagoFed: The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) edged down to –0.45 in the week ending February 17, suggesting financial conditions continued to loosen. https://t.co/zgzzx3Uavb
Jamie Dimon says the Federal Reserve has ‘lost a little bit of control of inflation’ (Very rare for a big bank CEO to rebuke a Fed CEO!) https://t.co/VWfXcgSLUS
ESHs rallied sharply from the Nikkei open util 22:00 ET. They then traded flat until they jumped higher after Europe opened. ESHs sank at 4:20 ET and then went flat until a rally into the US repo market open at 7 ET materialized. The rally peaked at the 8:30 ET release of the US GDP data.
ESHs slid 14 handles by 8:32 ET. ESHs then flatlined again. The rally for the NYSE opening began on schedule. However, the rally peaked at 9:33 ET. ESHs and stocks slid until 9:45 ET. Traders expected a rally after 4 straight down sessions. So, they aggressively bought ESHs and stocks.
Alas, the rally peaked near 9:55 ET. ESHs declined 15 handles by 10:08 ET. ESHs and stocks then plodded higher until they spiked lower near 10:30 ET. A commensurate spike higher quickly appeared. After a slow rollover, ESHs tumbled, falling 60 handles from the daily high by 12:13 ET.
ESHs and stocks then persistently rallied, abetted by aggressive buying in 0DTE calls, until 15:33 ET. ESHs and stock then retreated into the close.
Retirees lost 23% of their 401(k) savings in 2022, Fidelity says The average individual retirement account balance also plunged 20% year over year to $104,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022.. https://cnb.cx/3Zidol2
WSJ: U.S. to Expand Troop Presence in Taiwan for Training Against China Threat The Pentagon is helping Taiwan focus on tactics and weapon systems that would make the island harder to assault – The U.S. plans to deploy between 100 and 200 troops to the island in the coming months, up from roughly 30 there a year ago, according to U.S. officials… https://t.co/5lJySdbTa9
@charliekirk11: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announces that the United States will send an additional $10 billion in economic assistance for Ukraine. Estimates of total US economic and military aid to Ukraine now range from $115 billion to $200 billion in the last 12 months. https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1628777263943811077
Positive aspects of previous session Bonds rallied moderately Equities rallied sharply in the afternoon on 0DTE call buying; Fangs & trading sardines were featured
Negative aspects of previous session Speculation is still too feverish
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How big of a risk is the ugly geopolitical situation to dollar-denominate assets?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4003.27 Previous session High/Low: 4028.30; 3969.19
@paulsperry_: Ukraine for decades acted as a “buffer state,” separating Russia from NATO, but Biden upset that posture in June 2021 when his Secretary of State Blinken went to the Senate and officially declared: “We support Ukraine’s membership in NATO,” alarming Putin and provoking invasion.
@HustusMichael: 3 weeks after the catastrophic Train Derailment – Pete Buttigieg arrived at 7:15am in East Palestine, Ohio. He waited til just after 8:00 a.m. to get a photo-op in front of a passing Train, then immediately fled before any Ohio residents could confront him. https://twitter.com/HustusMichael/status/1628781265238335493
@RebsBrannon: Pete Buttigieg is escorted away from media while his press secretary makes herself known & says she’ll answer questions for him – but only if she isn’t recorded on camera… https://twitter.com/simonateba/status/1628782854686531584
Pete Buttigieg rep tells ‘aggressive’ reporter to turn off camera at Ohio derail sitehttps://t.co/9bTPuSTCmr
@RNCResearch: Reporter: “I’m struggling to understand why the president wouldn’t go to East Palestine. Does it simply not meet the bar for a presidential visit?” Karine Jean-Pierre: “Look I don’t … I … it’s … I wanna be very clear here. Um. There’s no reason to struggle.” https://t.co/sMyag0BipO
Senator Accuses FAA of Ignoring Potential Vaccine Dangers to Pilots U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is expressing dismay over how the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) responded to his questions about the agency’s handling of pilot health issues. “How can the FAA maintain safe skies when it turns a blind eye toward pilots experiencing COVID-19 vaccine injuries?” Johnson said in an email sent exclusively to The Epoch Times on Feb. 21… https://www.theepochtimes.com/exclusive-senator-accuses-faa-of-ignoring-potential-vaccine-dangers-to-pilots_5073387.html
@TPostMillennial: Tucker Carlson: “The airlines are in a mad scramble to meet equity targets, meaning they are pushing safety aside in favor of ideology, and people will die. People HAVE died.” https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1628573895069691905
Today – After 4 consecutive down sessions, the odds were extremely high that traders would play for a rally on Thursday. The ugly PCE generated a morning decline in the US. At midday, traders, particularly the guppies, aggressively bought 0DTE call options. This generated a rally until they had to dump during the final hour of trading.
The usual suspects will play for the expected Friday rally, abetted by Thursday’s Outside Day for the S&P 500 Index (marks trend changes). ESHs are -5.00 at 20:40 ET. Fed Balance Sheet: -$2.577B
Expected economic data: Jan Personal Income 1.0%, Spending 1.4%, PCE Deflator 0.5%, PCE Core Deflator 0.4%; Jan New Home Sales 620k; Feb UM Sentiment 66.4, Current Conditions 72.7, Expectations 625, 1-year Inflation 4.2%; Feb KC Fed Services Activity -11 prior; Fed Gov Jefferson and Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 10:15 ET, St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard 11:30 ET, Boston Fed Pres Collins 13:30 ET, Fed Gov Waller discusses “Why did we miscast inflation?” 13:30 ET
Politico: Biden may not run — and top Dems are quietly preparing The president no longer seems absolutely certain to go for a second term, leaving the party, his top aides and potential candidates unsure about ’24 and very quietly mulling plan B… “An inertia has set in… But nothing is decided. And it won’t be decided until it is.”… Biden is famously indecisive… https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/22/bidenworld-joe-may-not-run-2024-00083905
Biden Diplomats Trying to Block U.K. Plan to Designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as Terror Group… despite the fact that the U.S. took similar steps during the Trump administration. The U.S. State Department, which is currently trying to revive the defunct Iran Nuclear deal, believes that the U.K. can play a key role as interlocutors and fears that role would be undermined by designating the IRGC a terror group, according to a new report from The Telegraph… (Team Obama craves a deal with Iran.) https://www.nationalreview.com/news/biden-diplomats-trying-to-block-u-k-plan-to-designate-iran-militia-as-terror-group/
@greg_price11: Jean-Pierre: “There’s been a lot of bad faith attacks on Secretary Buttigieg. If you remember Elaine Chao. She was the head of the Department of Transportation and when there were these types of chemical spills, nobody was calling for her to be fired.”https://t.co/EzCqu1Y1ya
@greg_price11: Reporter: “On the search for a Fed Vice Chair, [how] important is it to the president to name a woman or a person of color?” Jean-Pierre: “Diversity and representation is really important to this president and the president is going to look at a highly diverse group.” https://t.co/6zofhHnHxB KJP: “The cabinet is majority people of color…The cabinet is majority female…a majority of White House senior staff identify as female. 40%…identify as part of the racially diverse communities and a record seven assistants to the president are openly LGBTQ+.”https://t.co/n1cWF6aAzC
Trump grand jury foreperson’s bizarre press blitz stuns liberal media, surprises legal experts: ‘No upside’ – The strange antics of the forewoman of a special grand jury in the media this week… could compromise a potential prosecution of President Trump and his associates. Emily Kohrs, foreperson of the special Fulton County, Georgia, grand jury.. seemed eager to share details of the lengthy probe in interviews… Clips circulating online of the 30-year-old woman smirking and bursting into giggles while teasing the grand jury’s recommended indictments – which have not yet been made public – raised concerns from even liberal media figures that she could be “destroying” the prosecution’s case… https://t.co/6U3J9qiUAh
Georgia grand jury forewoman who wanted to subpoena Trump has witchy Pinterest pagehttps://t.co/8qyFLcaWYN
Never in the history of U.S./Russia relations has Russia threatened nuclear war like this. It has suspended the START Treaty that is supposed to keep a lid on increasing nuclear arms in both counties. Russia, through its spokespeople, has threatened to strike the Yellowstone Caldera with a nuclear missile. Yellowstone is the largest super-volcano in North America, and if struck with a nuke, it could cause unimaginable damage to America. It’s getting serious, and the Lying Legacy Media (LLM) will not tell you the real danger America is facing with a potential thermal nuclear exchange with Russia over the stupid Ukraine war.
People are waking up to the scam of the dangerous bioweapon called the CV19 vaccine. In a twitter poll, with more than 144,000 people, nearly 80% “regret” taking it. Wow, nearly 80% hate the CV19 bioweapon vax. Just wait until more and more people get sick and/or die. More than 600 million doses of the CV19 bioweapon vax were injected. There is no way to stop what is coming, but you can help yourself greatly with treatments like Ivermectin, according to many doctors.
The housing market saw a $2.3 trillion drop in value, and the Fed is still raising interest rates. It has no plans to lower them anytime soon. Biden’s crashing economy is only going to get worse as the cheated in vice president fights the discovery that his administration blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. America looks like a desperate, out-of-control third world country. The economy will match that perception sooner than later as it tanks under the weight of incompetent and corrupt politicians in both parties.
There is much more in the 57-minute newscast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com for these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 2.24.23.
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After the Wrap-Up:
Money manager Peter Schiff will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. Schiff has bad news on inflation—it’s going to get worse—a lot worse.
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