MARCH 3//GOLD CLOSED UP $14,10 TO $1848.50/SILVER CLOSED UP 67 CENTS TO $21.16//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $17.00 TO $979.00 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $10.70 TO $1456.15/ COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA: BUKHMUT SURROUNDED AND MAY RETREAT//RIFT INSIDE OPEC MAY CAUSE OIL TO FALL//IN THE USA MORTGAGE READS CLIMB ABOVE 7%//USA SERVICE PMI INCREASES SIGNIFY STAGLATION COMING//TECH LAYOFFS CONTINUE//SUBPRIME AUTO LOANS INCREASE IN DEFAULTS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $22,345 DOWN 1121 dollars
Platinum price closing $979.00 UP $17.00
Palladium price; closing $1456.15 UP $10.70
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,520.74 UP $23.92 CDN dollars per oz
BRITISH GOLD: 1539.15 UP 1.27 pounds per oz
EURO GOLD: 1743.70 UP 9.73 euros per oz
COMEX DATA
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES SETTLEMENT: 1,833.500000000 USD INTENT DATE: 03/02/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 03/06/2023 FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED323 C HSBC 133 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 89 365 H MAREX CAPITAL M 2 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 5 624 C BOFA SECURITIES 19 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 84 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 17 657 H MORGAN STANLEY 280 661 C JP MORGAN 17 227 690 C ABN AMRO 6 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 8 737 C ADVANTAGE 12 48 800 C MAREX SPEC 5 5 880 C CITIGROUP 24 880 H CITIGROUP 1 905 C ADM 33 1TOTAL: 508 508
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 1508 NOTICES FOR 50,800 OZ or 1,6126 TONNES
total notices so far: 2110 contracts for 211,000 oz (6.5629 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 146 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 730,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2684 for 15,420,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $14.10
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//// NO CHANGES TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 67 CENTS
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 479.063. MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2137 CONTRACTS TO 121,299 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.16 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED OUR PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 124,080 OI CONTRACTS RECORDED FEB 22/2023. THUS NEW LOW COMEX OI SILVER IS NOW SET AT 121,299 MARCH 3/2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.16). AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1387 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 750 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.58 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP TO LONDON OF 595,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 14.275 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 15.275 MILLION OZ/ //// V) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL 82 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 days, total 1426 contracts: OR 7.130 MILLION OZ . (475 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 7.130 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 7.130 MILLION OZ//INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2137 WITH OUR $0.16 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 750 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 15.58 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 595,000 E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON (WHICH REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 15.275 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1387 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 146 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 730,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 5346CONTRACTS TO 436,462 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 279 CONTRACTS.
.
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 5346 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $4.00 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8,900 OZ (0.2468 TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London).
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $4.00 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7642 OI CONTRACTS (23,77 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2296 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 436,462
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7642 CONTRACTS WITH 5346CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2296 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7642 CONTRACTS OR 23.77 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2296 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (5346) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 7642 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 8900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 6.8087 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:8632 CONTRACTS OR 863,200 OZ OR 26.85 TONNES 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2877 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 26.85 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 26.85/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.7563% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 26.85 TONNES/INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2137 CONTRACTS OI TO 121,299 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 121,299 CONTRACTS MARCH 3/2023.
EFP ISSUANCE 750 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 750 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 750 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2055 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 750 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE LOSS OF 1387 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //6.935 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.16 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17,74 PTS OR 0.54% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 138.08 PTS OR 0.68% /The Nikkei closed UP 428.60% PTS OR 1.56% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.32% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9067 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9148// /Oil UP TO 77,85 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.28 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 5346 CONTRACTS UP TO 436,462 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.00.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2296 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2296 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2296 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 7642 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2296LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 5346CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.00. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (6.8087) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 6.8087 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $4.00) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7642 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 23.77 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 8900 OZ (0.276 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $4.00.
WE HAD -279 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7642 CONTRACTS OR 764,200 OZ OR 23.77 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2110 notices 211,000 6.5629 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 1
i) Into Brinks: 28,141.38 oz
real gold entering
total dealer deposit: 28,141.38 oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 0
total withdrawals: nil oz
in tonnes: 0 tonnes
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 587 contracts having LOST 51 contracts. We had 140 notices filed yesterday so we
gained another 89 notices or an additional 8900 oz will stand for metal at the comex
April lost 675 contracts down to 322,863 contracts
May gained 10 contracts to stand at 55
We had 508 notice(s) filed today for 50,800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 7 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 508 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer notice(s) was (were) stopped 7127 Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2110 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 587 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 508 x 100 oz per contract equals 218,900 OZ OR 6.8047 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:
No of notices filed so far (2110 x 100 oz+ 587 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (508)x 100 oz} which equals 218,900 oz standing OR 6.8047 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH..
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,630,976.622 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 10,917,912.41 (339,59 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,713,064.511 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,128,183 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 283.92 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAR 3/2023// THE MARCH 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
600,140.580 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
3095.152 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
146 CONTRACT(S) (730,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
171 contracts (855,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2684 contracts (13,420,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 1 deposits into the customer account
i) Into Delaware: 3095.152 oz
Total deposits: 3095.152 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 147.648 million oz/286.950 million =51.43% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Loomis 600,140.580 oz
Total withdrawals; 600,140.58 oz
adjustments: 2
customer to dealer
Loomis: 5068.800 oz
and
dealer to customer
Brinks: 49,373.410 oz
oz
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 39.239MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 286.950 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAR/2023 OI: 317 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 481 CONTRACT(S.) WE HAD 362 NOTICES FILED
YESTERDAY, SO WE LOST A HUGE 119 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 595,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AND THESE GUYS DECIDED FOR AN E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON AS OBVIOUSLY THEY COULD NOT SECURE ANY SILVER OVER HERE.
April LOST 15 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 405.
May LOST 1776 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 105,344.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 146 for 730,000 oz
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2684 x 5,000 oz = 13,420,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(317) and the number of notices served upon today 146 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month: 2684 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (317) – number of notices served upon today (146) x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 14.275 million oz +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 15.275 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES
FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES
FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 912.69 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 479.063 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
Rickards: One Of The Biggest Propaganda Campaigns Ever…
It’s extremely difficult to find the truth about the war in Ukraine.
The first reason for this is because… it’s a war.
Wars are always difficult to gauge in real-time.
The phrase “fog of war” was invented to convey the uncertainty and imprecision about the progress of any particular war.
Still, there’s another reason the war in Ukraine is confusing for so many.
It’s because the Ukrainian propaganda effort is one of the most astonishingly effective concoctions of lies ever seen.
From the “Ghost of Kyiv” fighter ace to the “Heroes of Snake Island” to wildly exaggerated claims of Russian casualties to the suppression of any news that reflects badly on Ukraine, the Ukrainian propaganda machine has been firing on all cylinders.
This might be expected given that President Zelenskyy is a former actor and comedian. He’s used to the media stage and making up scenes for the audience. Zelenskyy is backed up by a small army of media advisers and amplified by sympathizers including President Biden, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and outlets like The New York Times.
Courage Under (Phony) Fire
The latest propaganda stunt was Joe Biden’s trip to Kyiv a few days before the first anniversary of the Russian invasion. Biden made a canned speech, authorized another $500 million in weapons and hopped back onto a train to Poland.
The propaganda pièce de résistance was when Biden and Zelenskyy walked into an open courtyard and the Kyiv air raid sirens began blaring. The Russians had been advised in advance that Biden would be there, and they agreed not to stage any raids during Biden’s visit.
In fact, there had been no raids for some time. No one saw any planes, drones or missiles. The sirens were just a stage effect intended to create a false sense of danger to be picked up as a soundtrack by global media.
Ukraine is losing the war badly but you can’t blame Westerners for believing otherwise. They’re all victims of the Zelenskyy-Ukraine propaganda machine.
What about the sanctions? How are they working out?
Sorry, but I Was Right
U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia because of Ukraine have been worse than a complete failure. They have failed to change Russia’s behavior, have failed to hurt Russia’s economy in a material way and have boomeranged to hurt the U.S., Europe and many Western financial institutions.
I wrote about this last year in March and April not long after the war began. My comments were greeted with skepticism (at best) and extreme criticism (at worse). No matter. I was right then and the evidence since has been overwhelming.
The Russian ruble is stronger today than before the war began. Russian oil and gas revenue is higher than it was before the war. Russian oil is being sold at a discount to India and China, but Russia is making up the discount in increased volume.
The Russian economy was only down about 3% in 2022 (earlier estimates expected it to fall around 20% or more), and the Russian economy is expected to show modest growth this year versus likely recessions in the U.S. and Europe. Russia and China are far along in developing an interoperative payments and settlement system for international transactions that will replace the SWIFT system that Russia was ejected from.
Actually damaging Russian institutions is extremely difficult because Russia has spent years preparing for just such a financial attack from the United States. Its banks are robust with good liquidity and access to interbank facilities, even without the benefit of SWIFT or Western correspondents.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to destroy the Ukrainian army with missiles from North Korea, drones from Iran and its own massive industrial capacity.
The Only Card the U.S. Can Play
So Ukraine is losing on the battlefield and the U.S.-led sanctions regime against Russia has failed. The only U.S. response is to escalate the conflict.
The escalation of U.S. weaponry provided to Ukraine is stunning. We started with Stinger surface-to-air missiles to shoot down Russian aircraft, and Javelin missiles, which are potent anti-tank weapons (although the British NLAW system being used in Ukraine is apparently better).
Next, we provided the HIMARS, which is a long-range heavy artillery piece with precision-guided shells. Ukraine has used it to good effect, although it seems the Russians have developed means to counter it.
Contrary to what the propaganda machine says, the Russians aren’t idiots. In fact, the very head of Ukraine’s military has said that “all military science is located in Russia.”
Anyway, since the delivery of HIMARS, the U.S., the U.K. and Germany have pledged to provide top-of-the-line tanks including the U.S. Abrams tank, the U.K. Challenger 2 and the German Leopard 2. Incidentally, there are unconfirmed reports that some Leopards are now appearing on the battlefield.
Then, without skipping a beat, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy demanded F-16 fighter jets. Biden said no, but he also said no to tanks at first. It’s likely just a matter of time before he approves the F-16s.
All of this has been backed up with billions of dollars of intelligence, surveillance and communications systems designed to spot Russian targets and direct the application of U.S. weapons.
That’s to say nothing about the actual presence of NATO forces on the ground in Ukraine. Some sources indicate that as many as 20,000 Polish troops are on the front lines dressed in Ukrainian uniforms, making them foreign mercenaries. U.S. and U.K. forces are also on the ground there not in uniform, which is a violation of the Geneva Conventions.
Of course, this is no secret to the Russians. They recently warned us to withdraw all NATO personnel and equipment from Ukraine. If we don’t, the Russians renewed the warning that they could become legitimate targets.
Ukraine Is Losing
Still, none of this assistance has been particularly effective. Ukraine is losing the war badly as Russia slowly and methodically wears down Ukrainian forces along a broad front. Russia nearly has the strategically important city of Bakhmut encircled and will probably have it completely cut off before long, trapping 20,000–30,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
The loss of Bakhmut will be a significant defeat for Ukraine, as it will significantly weaken their defense line in the Donbas. They really only have one defense line to fall back to, and it’s notably weaker than the line they’re currently fighting to hold.
If Russia eventually manages to break through that last line, there’s very little between that line and the Dnieper River to stop them.
None of this is an indictment of the Ukrainian military, by the way. They’ve fought hard and bravely, and continue to do so. It’s just that they’re facing a superior force that significantly outnumbers them in tanks, aircraft, artillery and, importantly, ammunition. They’re simply outgunned.
Where’s the Cavalry?
Meanwhile, many of the weapons pledged (including the tanks) have not actually arrived and may not be ready for six months or more. Ukraine could sure use them now!
The F-16s in particular are a pipe dream because Ukrainian pilots don’t know how to fly them, and training can take almost a year. It’s possible that NATO pilots could secretly pilot them, but just think of the Russian propaganda victory if they shoot down and capture NATO pilots who aren’t supposed to be flying over Ukraine.
Still, apart from their effectiveness, another question arises. Can the U.S., the U.K. and Germany actually afford to provide these weapons without damaging their own readiness in the event of wars elsewhere?
The fact is Western arsenals have been badly depleted because of the weapons and ammunition provided to Ukraine. The European arsenals were not large to begin with, but even the U.S. supplies dropped into the danger zone. The situation is worse than that because the shortages cannot be made up quickly.
The U.S. has shut down many ammunition factories since the Cold War ended. These can be restarted but full wartime mobilization takes years, not weeks. World War II is a good example.
By 1943, the U.S. was producing wartime aircraft at a rate of almost 100,000 planes per year. But in 1941, that number was only 18,000. The Ford Motor Co. basically stopped automobile production and converted its huge River Rouge factory to aircraft production for the duration.
That fivefold increase in fighters and bombers took two years to achieve. It was not done in months. It’s fair to ask if this war is worth it in broad terms.
It’s even more pointed to ask if it’s worth jeopardizing U.S. national security by running down vital inventories of weapons to prop up a corrupt oligarchy in Eastern Europe.
The American people may discover the hard way that the answer to both questions is no.
END
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Your weekend reading material
(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)
Alasdair Macleod: Interest rates are the silent killer
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-03-02 11:32Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod GoldMoney, Toronto Thursday, March 2, 2023
This article is about why interest rates and bond yields are rising and why they will continue to rise, threatening to undermine the entire Western banking system.
Rising bond yields are deferring the prospect of a central bank pivot away from fighting inflation to tackling a widely expected recession. Anyway, these expectations wrongly assume that price inflation will fall in a recession, leading to lower interest rates.
History tells us that monetary debasement, rising prices, and a slump in business activity go together. Indeed, a slump in economic activity is almost certain, but interest rates will continue to rise, reflecting declining purchasing power for fiat currencies. There is nothing the monetary authorities can do to prevent it, and consequently a cyclical banking crisis, this time including both central and commercial banking systems, is bound to result.
In this article I point out the consequences of not understanding the true role of interest rates, the fallacies surrounding commodity price formation, and why a general glut cannot happen, which according to the Keynesians drives recessions.
Blaming inflation on Russia or other external forces cuts no ice. Our crisis is entirely of our own making. Rising interest rates are our silent killer. …
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.9067
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9148
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.74 PTS OR 0.54%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 138,08 PTS OR 0.68%
2. Nikkei closed UP 428.60 PTS OR 1.56%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.91 Euro RISES TO 1.0608 UP 8 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.500!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 136.21/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.723%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.554%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.750…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.457//(ITALY WORSE THAN GREECE?)
3j Gold at $1845.95//silver at: 21.09 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 12/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 75.44//
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 136.21/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, REMAINS AT .5000% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9394–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9964well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.016% DOWN 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.949 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.871 DOWN 3 BASIS PT
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,90…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.918% UP 4 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
S&P Futures Rebound To 4,000 As Yields, Dollar Slide
FRIDAY, MAR 03, 2023 – 08:10 AM
Yesterday Goldman said that if stocks averted a Thursday slide they looked poised for a rebound as the selling pressure would slowly abate, and sure enough early Friday seems to validate that with US index futures extending yesterday’s rebound and set for the first weekly gain in four as Treasury yields slumped across the board with the benchmark 10-year rate briefly dipping below 4% after rising to 4.08% yesterday, and the dollar slid as traders assessed the outlook for the economy and path of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each edged about 0.3% higher at 7:30am in New York after the underlying benchmarks gained 0.8% and 0.9% respectively on Thursday, following a powerful intraday rebound sparked by borderline dovish comments from Fed’s Bostic (who just a day earlier slammed stocks with his hawkish words).
In premarket trading, Hewlett Packard and Tesla gained about 2%: the former boosted its forecast for the quarter, while data showed a rise in Tesla’s vehicle shipments from China last month. Marvell Technology slumped 8.5% after the chipmaker’s guidance fell short of expectations, though analysts think estimates are now bottoming out and remain positive on the longer-term outlook for the firm. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Dell Technologies shares fell 3.7% in US premarket trading, with analysts cutting their price targets on the stock after the computer company’s outlook disappointed as demand for PCs falter against a difficult economic backdrop.
Zscaler shares declined 12% after the software company reported its second-quarter results and gave an outlook. While analysts are broadly positive on the report, they noted some signs of weakness in billings.
C3.ai shares jumped 16% after forecasting revenue for the fourth quarter that topped the average analyst estimate. CEO Thomas Siebel noted a “dramatic change” in business sentiment compared with mid-2022.
Elastic shares fall 3.2% after the software company reported third-quarter results that were seen as mixed, with higher-than-expected earnings, but a weaker outlook than the company previously guided for.
ChargePoint shares decline 11% after the electric-vehicle charging company gave a first-quarter revenue forecast that is much weaker than expected.
Keep an eye on Apple after Morgan Stanley said the stock has five under-appreciated catalysts that can drive a re-rating over the next 12 months, reiterating it as top pick and raising PT to $180 from $175.
US stocks climbed on Thursday, putting the S&P 500 on track for a small weekly gain, as investors focused on a comment by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic that the central bank could be in a position to pause rate hikes sometime this summer. But other hawkish Fedspeak is keeping investors relatively cautious as they await ISM services date due later for further clues about the health of the economy. On Thursday Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’d favor raising interest rates even more than his current outlook if economic indicators continue to come in hotter than expected.
“There is a cohort of investors who think the Fed may have to hike a lot more and that’s why interest rates are rising as much as they have recently,” Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities, said on Bloomberg Television. On Thursday, she recommended investors double down on buying 10Y TSYs (as covered here).
Data earlier this week showed continued labor market resilience in the world’s largest economy, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to keep tightening policy, a theme that pushed almost every major asset into the red in February. However, stocks have managed to hold their own so far in March, despite a series of hot inflation readings and strong labor market prints that caused investors ramp up bets on where interest rates might peak. But while this lifted 10-year Treasury yields to three-month highs, analysts noted that the economic resilience is also propping up corporate balance sheets. Risk sentiment also received a boost on Friday from forecast-beating factory data from China.
“US stocks will be in a trading range squeezed between weakening growth and declining earnings,” said Rajeev De Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management. “On the positive side, getting closer to the end of rate hikes, and only a moderate recession.” The end of “a necessary bear market” will coincide with an upsurge in stress in credit markets that could stem from private equity or the impact of slumping house prices in US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, Michael Hartnett wrote in a note (more in a follow-up post). Until then, cash is as good as bonds and stocks, he said.
“Short-term, equity markets seem to be more focused on a soft landing (for the economy) than they are on the cost pressures,” said Luke Hickmore, investment director at abrdn. While money markets now see US interest rates rising to about 5.5% by September, Hickmore reckons “markets are overpricing Fed and UK central bank policy-rate peaks, I think the policy peak comes earlier.”
European stocks are rising and on course for a weekly gain as investors focus on evidence of stronger economic output rather than the prospect of ongoing monetary tightening. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.6% with miners, tech and autos the strongest-performing sectors. Here are the most notable European movers:
European semiconductor stocks ASML, ASM International rise as much as 2.1% and 2.9% respectively, as Broadcom predicts a “soft landing” as companies spend on corporate networking infrastructure.
SAP shares rise as much as 2.4% as Morgan Stanley says the firm is its top European software-sector pick, following an analysis of subscription transition trends in the industry.
London Stock Exchange shares rise as much as 3.2% after JPMorgan analysts led by Enrico Bolzoni said their conviction in the overweight recommendation on the stock has increased following the exchange operator’s presentation.
Lufthansa shares climb as much as 6.2% to the highest since February 2020 after the German carrier guides for a “significant improvement” in adjusted Ebit in 2023, suggesting that consensus estimates will be raised, according to Bernstein.
Universal Music shares fall as much as 4.4%, the most since October, as a solid set of operating results for the record label is offset by one-offs related to share-based compensation and FX headwinds for its earnings outlook.
Admiral shares fall as much as 3% after Citi cut the recommendation to neutral from buy on the more cautious outlook for the UK motor space, with margin pressure building across the industry.
Pearson shares fall as much as 3.6%, as the education-publishing firm’s profit beat and predictions of continued sales growth for this year were likely tempered by expectations of revenue declines in its Higher Education unit. Citi also highlighted Pearson’s failure to announce a buyback.
Ferragamo shares fall as much as 3.1% after the Italian luxury company said 2023 will be a complex year of transition in a tougher macro environment. While turnaround stories in the luxury sector seem to be resonating with investors this year, Ferragamo is the outlier, analysts say.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for their first weekly gain in a month after a Federal Reserve official made dovish comments and traders stayed alert for any supportive measures that may come from China’s upcoming political meeting. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1% on Friday, lifted by energy and industrial shares. Japanese stocks led gains in the region after a report showed the nation’s unemployment rate reached the lowest level in three years. Shares in India and Hong Kong also climbed.
Onshore Chinese stocks eked out a small gain before the National People’s Congress this weekend. Some investors have trimmed their expectations for further stimulus given China’s faster-than-expected economic recovery. “What we hope to see out of the NPC is further liberalization of market,” Julia Raiskin, Citigroup head of Asia Pacific markets, told Bloomberg Television. Most clients are still on the fence given the geopolitical concerns and uncertainty around US monetary policy, Raiskin added. Asia’s stock benchmark headed for a weekly gain of more than 1% after Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said he’s “firmly” in favor of sticking with quarter-point interest rate hikes. Other central-bank officials in recent days have reinforced their hawkish rhetoric, keeping equity bulls in check.
Japanese equities rose with the benchmark Topix Index hitting its highest level since Jan. 2022 as investors assess dovish comments by a Fed official, suggesting a potential slowdown in US rate hikes. The Topix Index rose 1.3% to 2,019.52 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 1.6% to 27,927.47. Daiichi Sankyo Co. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 5.1%. Out of 2,160 stocks in the index, 1,702 rose and 351 fell, while 107 were unchanged. Japanese benchmarks have been beating global peers this year, thanks in part to the high proportion of value stocks. The MSCI Japan Index has gained 6.9% versus a 3.5% advance for the index provider’s broadest regional benchmark. nvestors expect Tokyo Stock Exchange’s push for better corporate governance to lead to some big share price moves. In addition, higher interest rates are starting to be priced in and BOJ governor nominee Kazuo Ueda’s dovish stance are also becoming a tailwind for local companies, JPMorgan’s chief Japan equity analyst Rie Nishihara wrote in a note Thursday. “US market closed strong and Japanese value stocks are showing solid performance, lifting the index up,” said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities. “The TSE policy continues to be a positive influence on Japanese equities, and the market is awaiting BOJ’s meeting next week.”
Indian stocks rallied the most in more than three months as a rebound in Adani Group firms boosted investor sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.5% to 59,808.97 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 1.6% as both measures rose most since Nov. 11. For the week, the gauges are up 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Adani Enterprises, the flagship firm of the ports-to-power conglomerate, led a rally in 10 group companies as US-based GQG Partners invested about $1.9 billion in four of its firms, a key signal that the embattled conglomerate’s efforts to win investor confidence is gaining traction. “We expect the markets to have a short-term bounce back due to increased optimism, but are still concerned about global interest rates and higher valuations, which can lead to increased medium-term volatility,” Axis Securities Chief Investment Officer Naveen Kulkarni said. All of BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector gauges rose on Friday, led by an index of services sector companies, while for the week realty firms were the top gainers. Banks were among prominent gainers on Friday as stake buys in Adani stocks tapered recent concerns over the sector’s exposure to the conglomerate. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the index gain on Friday, increasing 2.5%.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% as it continued a one day up and then next day down pattern. It’s set for a 0.6% drop this week, its first weekly decline since January. The greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers, with the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar as the top performers
The euro advanced to trade above the $1.06 handle. European bonds advanced with Treasuries, led by the long ends.
Gilt yields eased as much as 5 basis points across the curve, with money markets now seeing the BOE rate peaking at 4.76% in November, 4 basis points below Thursday’s close
Japan’s 10-year bond yield for some time rose above the central bank’s policy ceiling for the first time since Feb. 22 ahead of BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s last policy meeting next week. The yen strengthened amid broad weakness in dollar after data suggested inflationary pressures remain strong in Tokyo. One-week implied volatility in dollar- yen rallied, in line with the roll, as the tenor now captures the BOJ meeting
Australia’s dollar rose as market sentiment was lifted by data showing a strong rebound in China’s services activity in February. Bonds trimmed losses. The Caixin China services PMI rose to 55 in February, from 52.9 the prior month, hitting the highest level since August 2022
In rates, Treasuries rallied across the curve, mostly unwinding Thursday’s selloff and matching similar gains in bunds during European morning. Long-end outperformance pushed inverted 5s30s spread to a new YTD low. Yields are richer by 2bp to 6bp across the curve with intermediates out to long-end outperforming, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~2bp on the day; 5s30s touched -34.2bp. 10-year yields hover around 4%, down ~5bp vs Thursday’s close and outperforming bunds by 2bp. No strong catalyst for Treasuries advance as selloff takes a breather; Thursday saw all yields top 4% for the first time since November, following an upward revision to the fourth-quarter unit-labor-costs growth rate. German 10-year yields snapped a five-day rising streak to slip three basis points. Focal points of US session include ISM services report and a handful of Fed speakers.
In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI falling roughly 0.4% to trade near $77.80. Spot gold rises roughly 0.6% to trade around $1,846. Bitcoin
Elsewhere, Bitcoin slumped 4.4% to the lowest level in more than two weeks on wider retreat in the crypto markets as investors assessed the fallout of crypto-friendly US bank Silvergate Capital Corp.
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the global services and composite PMIs for February, and the ISM services index from the US. We’ll also get the Euro Area PPI reading for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Logan, Bostic and Bowman, as well as ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Holzmann, Vasle, Muller and Wunsch. Finally in the political sphere, US President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz will be meeting at the White House.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 3,988.75
MXAP up 1.1% to 161.28
MXAPJ up 0.8% to 523.68
Nikkei up 1.6% to 27,927.47
Topix up 1.3% to 2,019.52
Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 20,567.54
Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,328.39
Sensex up 1.5% to 59,816.36
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,283.57
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,432.07
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 463.02
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.71%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0619
Brent Futures little changed at $84.77/bbl
Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,846.59
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.32% to 104.69
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
The ECB’s planned half-point increase in interest rates this month will probably be followed by more hikes, with borrowing costs to remain elevated for a while, according to Governing Council member Madis Muller
ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said market bets for interest rates to reach a 4% peak may prove accurate if underlying price pressures remain elevated
ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle says he expects an interest-rate hike at this month’s policy meeting to be followed by “additional increases”
Sweden’s PMI services fell to 45.7 in February, led by the subindexes of orders received and employment, according to data published on Friday. That was the weakest showing since May 2020 and also the first time since the Covid-19 crisis that the index signals a contraction
Russia will reduce the amount of foreign currency it plans to sell through early April as energy revenues show signs of stabilizing despite restrictions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine
China’s central bank Governor Yi Gang signaled monetary policy will largely be stable this year, saying interest rates in the economy are appropriate, inflation will remain under control and the currency’s volatility wasn’t a concern
Turkey’s opposition is in crisis over a failure to agree on a joint candidate to contest President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, hampering a rare chance to unseat the country’s longest-serving leader at elections in less than three months
Traders in options on South Africa’s rand are starting to bet that King Dollar’s best days are over. The cost of hedging against rand declines, as measured by the premium of options to sell the currency over those to buy it, fell to about 190 basis points on Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s less than half the long-term average, and the lowest since early 2006, when the rand was buoyed by the commodities super-cycle that peaked two years later
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly higher amid tailwinds from the US where risk appetite was bolstered by comments from Fed’s Bostic that they could be in a position to pause by mid-to-late summer and as the region also digested further strong Chinese Caixin PMI data. ASX 200 was led by strength in telecoms, healthcare and financials albeit with gains limited ahead of next week’s RBA meeting where the central bank is widely expected to hike again. Nikkei 225 outperformed after recent data which showed Tokyo-area headline and core inflation began to soften and the Unemployment Rate edged lower, while a recent source report noted that the BoJ is to prefer watching how the impact of earlier policy tweaks works out for now. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. gained after strong Caixin Services and Composite PMI data which showed the fastest pick-up in activity since August. However, upside was capped heading into China’s ‘Two Sessions’ where participants will be eyeing a major overhaul of President Xi’s leadership team and the Government Work Report including this year’s official growth target, while US-China frictions continued to linger with the Biden administration adding 28 Chinese entities to the US trade blacklist.
Top Asian News
PBoC Governor Yi said they will keep the yuan exchange rate and prices stable, while he added that the yuan has become more flexible and helps stabilise the economy. Yi stated they will safeguard the bottom line for preventing systemic risks and will support the healthy development of platform companies. Yi also noted that China’s real interest rates are at an appropriate level now and using RRR to release long-term liquidity will still be an effective tool for the economy, according to Reuters.
PBoC Deputy Governor Liu said China’s economy is improving but there are still uncertainties and they will adjust policy in a timely way, but will not resort to flood-like stimulus and will steer monetary policy based on domestic conditions.
US President Biden’s administration added 28 Chinese entities to the US trade blacklist, according to a filing cited by Reuters. US Commerce Department later confirmed that it added 37 entities to the entities list with many of them from China, while the additions were due to nuclear and missile-related activities, supporting China’s military, human rights violations and support for the Russian military.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno says they will consider taking necessary steps to curb inflation, incl. using the reserve budget.
China’s two-session will commence at 07:00GMT/02:00EST on March 4th and end on March 13th.
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, in a continuation of the firmer Wall St./APAC handover. Sectors are predominantly in the green with Media lagging post-UMG while Basic Resources outperforms amid benchmark/overnight action while Tech recoups as yields ease. Stateside, futures are all in the green though only modestly so vs Europe, with the ES having eclipsed Thursday’s peak but is yet to convincingly test 4k.
Top European News
ECB’s Wunsch said the ECB could consider raising its key interest rate to as high as 4% if underlying inflation remains persistently high and noted if core inflation remains above 5% and there is no clear signal it is going down, they would have to do more, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Vasle expects March rate hike to be followed by additional hikes.
ECB’s de Guindos believes headline inflation will continue to decline, and around mid-year it could fall under 6%; says however core inflation could have a more stable performance.
ECB’s Muller says it is most likely that the March rate hike is not the last; rates will have to stay high for some time; core inflation is more worrisome than headline inflation.
UK Chancellor Hunt is set to extend GBP 2,500 energy price guarantee for an additional three months, according to The Times.
FX
The DXY is under pressure with G10 peers firmer across the board as UST yields ease across the curve following Thursday’s Fed commentary, DXY at the lower-end of 104.64-104.98 parameters.
Given the yield action, the CHF is the main beneficiary vs the USD and also against the EUR, with EUR/CHF pulling further back from parity to near-0.9950.
EUR is bid, though to a lesser extent than peers, following a mixed bag of final PMIs and in particular markedly softer January PPI, though hawkish ECB speak has helped to pare the PPI pullback; EUR/USD around 1.0628 high vs 1.0596 low.
GBP benefits from favourable PMI revisions and EUR/GBP action; currently, Cable is at 1.20 though is yet to convincingly test the figure.
USD/JPY is neared to 136.00 vs the 136.77 high after firmer-than-expected Tokyo CPI while the antipodeans are bolstered to a similar degree despite softer data prints.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9117 vs exp. 6.9132 (prev. 6.8808)
Fixed Income
Benchmarks are firmer across the board as yields continue to pullback in an extension of APAC action with EZ PPI data assisting.
Specifically, Bunds have eclipsed Thursday’s 132.13 peak by a handful of ticks, though 2.70% in the 10yr yield is proving sticky; the periphery is bid to a slightly larger extent, though BTPs have pulled-back from best levels to 112.00.
Stateside, USTs are at the top-end of 110.15+ to 111.00 parameters with yields lower across the curve and action currently most pronounced at the long-end ahead of multiple Fed speakers and S&P Global & ISM PMIs.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks have been choppy, indecisive and rangebound throughout APAC and European hours, residing within sub-USD 1/bbl parameters.
Specific developments have been somewhat limited while we await a full readout from Putin’s Security Council meeting after limited Kremlin commentary.
PetroChina International executive said China gas demand is expected to pick up in 2023 from last year’s level but does not expect a quick rebound in China LNG imports this year if spot prices are as high as last year, while they expect business as usual in Russia-China gas trade, according to Reuters.
BoE on LME Clear: “Collectively, these reviews pointed to several shortcomings across LME Clear’s governance, management and risk management capabilities”. Click here for more detail.
China state planner NDRC says experts suggest strengthening regulation and supervision of the iron ore market to curb unreasonable price increases.
Nat Gas futures diverge between the US and Europe given the weekly inventory data and weather/reduced demand factoring respectively.
Spot gold is modestly firmer given the softer USD and as the yellow metal extends incrementally above its USD 1844/oz 21-DMA, while base metals are supported by the broader risk tone.
Geopolitics
US senior official said Ukraine will be a major topic in talks between US President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz, while the leaders are also expected to discuss challenges posed by China. Furthermore, the US has so far not seen that China has provided lethal aid to Russia and it is engaging with partners in Europe on sanctions against third countries aiding Russia, according to Reuters.
Russian Kremlin says that Russia will take measures to prevent a repeat of the border incursion on Thursday by Ukraine-backed nationalists.
US Event Calendar
09:45: Feb. S&P Global US Composite PMI, prior 50.2
09:45: Feb. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 50.5, prior 50.5
10:00: Feb. ISM Services Index, est. 54.5, prior 55.2
ISM Services Employment, prior 50.0
ISM Services New Orders, prior 60.4
ISM Services Prices Paid, prior 67.8
Fed speakers:
11:00: Fed’s Logan Makes Opening Remarks at Event
12:00: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Racial Inequality Research
15:00: Fed’s Bowman Chairs Panel at Conference
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I hope the parents amongst you survived World Book Day yesterday where schools here in the UK make you send your child to school in a costume that reflects their favourite book. It seems to be getting more competitive each year and a parental arms race has developed. I tried to send my twins as “Irrational Exuberence” by Robert Shiller and “This time is different – Eight centuries of financial folly” by Reinhart and Rogoff. However my wife decided Harry Potter was more appropriate.
Back in muggle land it’s been more of the same for markets over the last 24 hours, as a fresh bond selloff took place after several data prints suggested that rate hikes still had further to go. Indeed, the day brought a number of new milestones, since 10yr Treasury yields closed above 4% for the first time since November, whilst Fed funds futures even priced a 5.5% terminal rate on an intraday basis, marking a new high for this cycle, before closing at c.5.45%. Meanwhile in Europe, sovereign bonds lost ground for a 5th day running, taking the 10yr bund yield up to its highest level since 2011. US equities did recover from early losses though with the S&P 500 ending up +0.76%.
Once again, the tone was set from the morning, with the Euro Area flash CPI release for February coming in above expectations. Headline CPI was at +8.5% (vs. +8.3% expected), but the more important point was that core CPI hit +5.6% (vs. +5.3% expected), which is the fastest core inflation on record since the formation of the single currency. This added to the growing evidence that Europe’s inflation problem has long since broadened out from just being an energy issue, and the reading will embolden the hawks on the Governing Council to keep taking rates higher. Our economists published a blog last night “An uncomfortable inflation surprise for the ECB” where they outline the problems for the council and how there is upside risk to our 3.75% terminal view. See here for more.
This narrative about higher inflation was then given further support from US data releases later in the session. In particular, unit labour costs in Q4 were revised up to show an annualised +3.2% increase, which is a substantial revision from the +1.1% rate that had been previously reported. And at the same time, the data on weekly initial jobless claims fell to 190k (vs. 195k expected) over the week ending February 25, suggesting that the labour market continued to remain in a very strong position.
Those data releases prompted a fresh round of losses for sovereign bonds, with Treasury yields seeing a noticeable increase after the US releases came out. By the close, the 10yr yield (+6.5bps) had risen to 4.06%, its highest level since November, just as the 2yr yield (+0.4bps) closed at 4.88%, its highest level since 2007, but lower than the 4.94% intra-day peak. 30yr yields breached 4% briefly again too. As in previous days, this increase in sovereign bond yields was driven by higher inflation expectations, with the 2yr breakeven (+6.7bps) at an 8-month high of 3.31%, and the 5yr breakeven (+6.5bps) at a 6-month high of 2.73%. This morning in Asia, 10yrs USTs are c.-1bps lower.
Back in Europe it was a very similar story, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.0bps) hitting a post-2011 high of 2.75%. In light of the strong CPI print, the move was unsurprisingly driven by higher inflation breakevens, with the 10yr German breakeven up by +8.4bps to 2.63%, its highest level since early May. And that concern over inflation persistence was evident in Europe too, since the Euro 5y5y forward inflation swap hit its highest level in a decade at 2.56%. Elsewhere on the continent there was a sustained move higher in yields as well, with those on 10yr OATs (+4.5bps) at a post-2012 high, and those on 10yr gilts (+4.3bps) at their highest since Liz Truss was PM.
US equities were initially struggling against the twin headwinds of higher rates and the aftermath of Tesla’s investor day. However it seemed to turn when we heard from Atlanta Fed’s President Bostic post the European close. He favoured 25bps-sized hikes and saw a potential Fed pause some time in mid or late summer. Strangely this was seized on as being enough to propel stocks from declines to an S&P close of +0.76% on the day. The front end of rates markets came off their highs around the same time although the long end moved less. The Fed’s Waller later suggested that unless the next payrolls and CPI print showed some restraint, he would likely edge his terminal view up. So it was hard to see Fed speak as dovish whatever the market narrative.
In terms of sectors, the more inflation-driven parts of the index like utilities (+1.82%), real estate (+1.22%) and staples (+1.21%) were the leading gainers, with only discretionary (-0.32%) and financials (-0.53%) in the red for the day as Tesla, the sixth largest S&P 500 stock by market cap, lost -5.85%, becoming the worst S&P 500 performer yesterday. Otherwise, more than three quarters of the index members finished in the green by the close. IT (+1.26%) was an outlier on this otherwise defensive leader board, primarily driven by Salesforce’s upbeat outlook and buyback plans that propelled the stock by +11.5% and the software index by +2.37%.
Europe also saw equity gains as the STOXX 600 (+0.51%) recovered some of the previous day’s declines, with energy (+1.69%) and more defensive staples (+1.39%) and utilities (+0.79%) lifted by higher inflation expectations. It also comes as oil prices posted further gains yesterday, with Brent crude up by +0.47% to $84.71/bbl, its highest level in two weeks.
Asian equity markets are higher this morning after a sharp recovery in China’s services sector activity (more below). As I type, the Nikkei (+1.48%) is leading gains followed by the Hang Seng (+0.71%) while the KOSPI (+0.13%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.17%) and the CSI (+0.03%) are modestly higher. In overnight trading, US equity futures are pointing to small losses with those on the S&P 500 (-0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.26%) ticking lower.
Coming back to China, we are seeing positive growth signs from the world’s second biggest economy after the services sector PMI rose sharply from 52.9 in January to a 6-month high of 55.0 in February (v/s 54.5 expected) as the removal of tough COVID-19 restrictions revived demand.
Elsewhere, Tokyo’s Core-CPI advanced +3.3% y/y in February as expected, albeit a lower print than the prior month’s +4.3% increase, indicating the effect of government subsidies which drove down soaring energy bills. Separate data showed that Japan’s jobless rate dropped to a three-year low of 2.4% in January from 2.5% in December while the jobs-to-applicants ratio fell to 1.35 from December’s 1.36, marking the first decline since August 2020. Meanwhile, Japan’s services sector in February expanded at its fastest pace since June 2022 as the final estimate of the services PMI came in at 54, higher than previous month’s reading of 52.3.
Returning back to yesterday, a more backward-looking piece of news came from the release of the ECB’s account of their February meeting. They showed that “it was generally felt that concerns of “overtightening” were premature”, and that policy rates were currently “barely consistent with the range of estimates for the neutral rate”. It also said there were “reservations” about the commitment to a 50bps move in March, but ultimately “it was seen as important to provide a firm signal of policy intentions”.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the global services and composite PMIs for February, and the ISM services index from the US. We’ll also get the Euro Area PPI reading for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Logan, Bostic and Bowman, as well as ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Holzmann, Vasle, Muller and Wunsch. Finally in the political sphere, US President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz will be meeting at the White House.
end
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities firmer across the board as the USD and yields ease with Fed speak/ISM ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, MAR 03, 2023 – 06:29 AM
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, in a continuation of the firmer Wall St./APAC handover; US futures bid, though to a lesser extent.
DXY is under pressure with G10 peers firmer across the board as UST yields ease across the curve, CHF the main beneficiary.
Fixed income benchmarks are bid across the board as yields continue to pullback in an extension of APAC action with EZ PPI data assisting.
Crude benchmarks have been choppy, indecisive and rangebound throughout APAC and European hours, residing within sub-USD 1/bbl parameters.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Composite & Services PMIs, US ISM Services, Speeches from Fed’s Logan, Bostic, Bowman, Barkin.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, in a continuation of the firmer Wall St./APAC handover.
Sectors are predominantly in the green with Media lagging post-UMG while Basic Resources outperforms amid benchmark/overnight action while Tech recoups as yields ease.
Stateside, futures are all in the green though only modestly so vs Europe, with the ES having eclipsed Thursday’s peak but is yet to convincingly test 4k.
The DXY is under pressure with G10 peers firmer across the board as UST yields ease across the curve following Thursday’s Fed commentary, DXY at the lower-end of 104.64-104.98 parameters.
Given the yield action, the CHF is the main beneficiary vs the USD and also against the EUR, with EUR/CHF pulling further back from parity to near-0.9950.
EUR is bid, though to a lesser extent than peers, following a mixed bag of final PMIs and in particular markedly softer January PPI, though hawkish ECB speak has helped to pare the PPI pullback; EUR/USD around 1.0628 high vs 1.0596 low.
GBP benefits from favourable PMI revisions and EUR/GBP action; currently, Cable is at 1.20 though is yet to convincingly test the figure.
USD/JPY is neared to 136.00 vs the 136.77 high after firmer-than-expected Tokyo CPI while the antipodeans are bolstered to a similar degree despite softer data prints.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9117 vs exp. 6.9132 (prev. 6.8808)
Benchmarks are firmer across the board as yields continue to pullback in an extension of APAC action with EZ PPI data assisting.
Specifically, Bunds have eclipsed Thursday’s 132.13 peak by a handful of ticks, though 2.70% in the 10yr yield is proving sticky; the periphery is bid to a slightly larger extent, though BTPs have pulled-back from best levels to 112.00.
Stateside, USTs are at the top-end of 110.15+ to 111.00 parameters with yields lower across the curve and action currently most pronounced at the long-end ahead of multiple Fed speakers and S&P Global & ISM PMIs.
Crude benchmarks have been choppy, indecisive and rangebound throughout APAC and European hours, residing within sub-USD 1/bbl parameters.
Specific developments have been somewhat limited while we await a full readout from Putin’s Security Council meeting after limited Kremlin commentary.
PetroChina International executive said China gas demand is expected to pick up in 2023 from last year’s level but does not expect a quick rebound in China LNG imports this year if spot prices are as high as last year, while they expect business as usual in Russia-China gas trade, according to Reuters.
BoE on LME Clear: “Collectively, these reviews pointed to several shortcomings across LME Clear’s governance, management and risk management capabilities”. Click here for more detail.
China state planner NDRC says experts suggest strengthening regulation and supervision of the iron ore market to curb unreasonable price increases.
Nat Gas futures diverge between the US and Europe given the weekly inventory data and weather/reduced demand factoring respectively.
Spot gold is modestly firmer given the softer USD and as the yellow metal extends incrementally above its USD 1844/oz 21-DMA, while base metals are supported by the broader risk tone.
ECB’s Wunsch said the ECB could consider raising its key interest rate to as high as 4% if underlying inflation remains persistently high and noted if core inflation remains above 5% and there is no clear signal it is going down, they would have to do more, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Vasle expects March rate hike to be followed by additional hikes.
ECB’s de Guindos believes headline inflation will continue to decline, and around mid-year it could fall under 6%; says however core inflation could have a more stable performance.
ECB’s Muller says it is most likely that the March rate hike is not the last; rates will have to stay high for some time; core inflation is more worrisome than headline inflation.
UK Chancellor Hunt is set to extend GBP 2,500 energy price guarantee for an additional three months, according to The Times.
DATA RECAP
German Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Jan) 16.7B vs. Exp. 11.0B (Prev. 10.0B)
EU S&P Global Composite Final PMI (Feb) 52.0 vs. Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 52.3); Services Final PMI (Feb) 52.7 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 53.0)
“…concern, however, that signs of persistent elevated selling price inflation, combined with the surprising resiliency of the economy, will embolden the ECB into more aggressive monetary policy tightening…”
EU Producer Prices YY (Jan) 15.0% vs. Exp. 17.7% (Prev. 24.6%); MM (Jan) -2.8% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 1.1%)
UK Composite PMI Final (Feb) 53.1 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 53.0); Services PMI Final (Feb) 53.5 vs. Exp. 53.3 (Prev. 53.3)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Waller (voter) said the Fed may need to raise rates beyond the December central tendency view of 5.1%-5.4% if incoming jobs and inflation data does not pull back from the strong readings for January, while Waller added that his view will depend on what the data says.
US senior official said Ukraine will be a major topic in talks between US President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz, while the leaders are also expected to discuss challenges posed by China. Furthermore, the US has so far not seen that China has provided lethal aid to Russia and it is engaging with partners in Europe on sanctions against third countries aiding Russia, according to Reuters.
Russian Kremlin says that Russia will take measures to prevent a repeat of the border incursion on Thursday by Ukraine-backed nationalists.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin remains underpressure and lower by circa. USD 1k at USD 22.3k, after seeing pronounced downside in short-order overnight with fresh catalysts light but some attention placed on liquidation action amid concerns of the viability of Silvergate.
Three US Senators requested that Binance and its US partner provide information about their regulatory compliance and finances, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mostly higher amid tailwinds from the US where risk appetite was bolstered by comments from Fed’s Bostic that they could be in a position to pause by mid-to-late summer and as the region also digested further strong Chinese Caixin PMI data.
ASX 200 was led by strength in telecoms, healthcare and financials albeit with gains limited ahead of next week’s RBA meeting where the central bank is widely expected to hike again.
Nikkei 225 outperformed after recent data which showed Tokyo-area headline and core inflation began to soften and the Unemployment Rate edged lower, while a recent source report noted that the BoJ is to prefer watching how the impact of earlier policy tweaks works out for now.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. gained after strong Caixin Services and Composite PMI data which showed the fastest pick-up in activity since August. However, upside was capped heading into China’s ‘Two Sessions’ where participants will be eyeing a major overhaul of President Xi’s leadership team and the Government Work Report including this year’s official growth target, while US-China frictions continued to linger with the Biden administration adding 28 Chinese entities to the US trade blacklist.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC Governor Yi said they will keep the yuan exchange rate and prices stable, while he added that the yuan has become more flexible and helps stabilise the economy. Yi stated they will safeguard the bottom line for preventing systemic risks and will support the healthy development of platform companies. Yi also noted that China’s real interest rates are at an appropriate level now and using RRR to release long-term liquidity will still be an effective tool for the economy, according to Reuters.
PBoC Deputy Governor Liu said China’s economy is improving but there are still uncertainties and they will adjust policy in a timely way, but will not resort to flood-like stimulus and will steer monetary policy based on domestic conditions.
US President Biden’s administration added 28 Chinese entities to the US trade blacklist, according to a filing cited by Reuters. US Commerce Department later confirmed that it added 37 entities to the entities list with many of them from China, while the additions were due to nuclear and missile-related activities, supporting China’s military, human rights violations and support for the Russian military.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno says they will consider taking necessary steps to curb inflation, incl. using the reserve budget.
China’s two-session will commence at 07:00GMT/02:00EST on March 4th and end on March 13th.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Feb) 55.0 vs. Exp. 54.7 (Prev. 52.9); Composite PMI (Feb) 54.2 (Prev. 51.1)
Tokyo CPI YY (Feb) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 4.4%)
Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Feb) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 4.3%); Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Feb) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.0%)
Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jan) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%)
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17,74 PTS OR 0.54% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 138.08 PTS OR 0.68% /The Nikkei closed UP 428.60% PTS OR 1.56% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.32% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.9067 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.9148// /Oil UP TO 77,85 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.28 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2B JAPAN
JAPAN/COVID
3c CHINA /
CHINA/TAIWAN/USA
Australian Experts Contradict US Counterparts on China, Say US Can’t Win Taiwan War
Any attack on China will escalate very quickly. America doe snot even have its’ metal screw factories and is reliant on China. Hello. Any thought of actual war is really dumb.
Australian Experts Contradict US Counterparts on China, Say US Can’t Win Taiwan War
By Paul Crespo – American Liberty March 2, 2023
Commentary
Defense News National Security
ANALYSIS – Just 10 years ago few would have doubted America’s ability to not only deter, but defeat any Communist Chinese (CHICOM) attempt to forcibly seize Taiwan.
But now after years of a relentless and accelerating Chinese military buildup, and the West asleep at the wheel for much of this time, there is increasing doubt.
Today the most important question we can ask is:
Can the U.S., even with its allies, defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?
Some in the U.S. say it will be a tough fight, devastating to both sides, but the U.S., et al., will succeed.
However, in Australia, an ally who has become increasingly pivotal to U.S. plans to counter China, a group of dovish defense experts says the U.S. can’t win, even with allies in the fight.
Hugh White, the former hawk, now defeatist, ex-Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Australian Department of Defense, said: “I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia’s support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.”
He added that it would be a mistake for the U.S., and Australia, to get involved in such a war.
He also noted what many agree with, that any war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan would “probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945.”
According to White, “by far the most likely outcome would be a costly stalemate in which both sides lost heavily but neither side could secure a decisive, war-winning advantage.”
Granted there is debate even among U.S. military planners, and think tanks, with some pointing to a growing disparity favoring Beijing between what China can bring to bear quickly against Taiwan, and what the U.S. can bring to the important first days of any fight, to argue the U.S. can’t win.
But others point to America finally coming around to the growing threat with increased resources and plans focused exclusively on keeping Taiwan free from Chinese conquest. And then there are the expanded weapons sales which began under President Trump and expanded since the Russian invasion of Ukraine (albeit still too slow to arrive).
Taiwan has also finally begun to show signs it is serious about its own defense, increasing and expanding mandatory military training and adding resources for defending the island.
All positive developments.
Per an entry in my January 9 PDB, the Center for Strategic and international Studies (CSIS) came to a different conclusion. In that PDB, I note CSIS’ conclusion that the war (projected for 2026) would produce horrible losses on all sides, including Taiwan and Japan, but the U.S. would succeed:
War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, United States, Taiwanese and Japanese forces, and it would be unlikely to result in a victory for Beijing, according to CSIS, a prominent Washington think tank, which conducted simulations of a possible conflict. A war over Taiwan could leave a victorious US military in as crippled a state as the Chinese forces it defeated. At the end of the conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers would lie at the bottom of the Pacific and China’s modern navy, which is the largest in the world, would be in “shambles.”
CSIS’s ‘The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan’ predicted that China’s “high losses” might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule, even if Taiwan’s economy would be left shattered and the U.S. global position would also be damaged for many years.
One point the Australian experts address, which I have also written about, is that among various war scenarios, a blockade of Taiwan may be more likely than a conventional invasion.
Hugh White argues a blockade would be “a far cheaper and less risky way” for Beijing to achieve its objectives.
If China establishes what White calls “a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan,” how does the U.S. respond?
Clinton Fernandes a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now a professor at the University of New South Wales, also believes that a blockade that prevents 80% of ships and aircraft from entering or leaving Taiwan, would be the most likely option.
“It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary,” he explained.
I discussed this gray zone blockade option in more detail in my earlier piece, ‘As US General Warns of War, China Steadily ‘Blockading’ Taiwan to Avoid All-Out War.’
Meanwhile, White insists the war cannot be won based on a basic but persuasive premise.
America would not be able to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan without using nuclear weapons, and the U.S. is not willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation for Taiwan.
And many might agree with that.
But that assumption is flawed, and also depends on the U.S. leader at the time. Biden might make far different decisions from say Trump, or DeSantis, leading up to and during a conflict.
It also depends on what the U.S. and allies do between now and any future conflict.
How the war plays out (China sinking one or more U.S. aircraft carriers) might make it impossible for the U.S. not to use nuclear weapons, albeit in a limited or tactical way.
Or the U.S. could use devastating conventional attacks, with nuclear-like effects, such as destroying the Three Gorges Dam across the Yangtze River, flooding much of China’s farmland below it. This would destroy China’s food supply and bring the regime to its knees.
We discuss this devastating conventional option in a paper published by the Center for American Defense Studies (CADS).
So, the Chinese regime can never be sure of how the U.S. might react and that will likely factor into any CHICOM calculus.
One thing is certain – we must constantly convey to China and our friends and allies a resolute commitment to victory if forced to fight. This is the key to deterrence, not the dovish ‘we can’t win a war’ defeatism exhibited by these Australians.
For now, despite the Aussie arguments, I believe that while the question of winning may remain unresolved, I know losing is not an option.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of American Liberty News.
Paul Crespo is Managing Editor of American Liberty Defense News. He served as a Marine Corps officer and as a military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies worldwide. He brings decades of political and national security experience to cover the critical issues that threaten our American liberty – at home and abroad. For additional reportage on all things national security, subscribe to Paul’s Substack here.
end
(courtesy Dave DeCamp/Atniwar.com)
US Army Secretary Says US Preparing To Win A War With China
US Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said this week that the US must prepare to win a future war with China over Taiwan by beefing up its military deployments in the region.
“I personally am not of the view that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan is imminent,” Wormuth said at an American Enterprise Institute event, according to Voice of America. “But we obviously have to prepare, to be prepared to fight and win that war.”
Wormuth’s plan would involve sending more troops and advanced weapons into the region, including hypersonic missiles. She said the buildup would be an effort to deter war with China, although Beijing has been increasing its military activity in the region in response to US actions.
Wormuth laid out three ways the US Army would work to build up forces in the region. First, by increasing cooperation with allies, which she said would “complicate” Beijing’s decision-making. Second, the Army will establish “theater distribution centers” to pre-position weapons and other supplies in the region.
She listed Australia and Japan as two places where weapons could be staged and said non-lethal equipment might be stored in the Philippines and Singapore. The third aspect of the plan would be to place more visible combat forces in the region. “Our goal is to have Army forces in the Indo-Pacific seven to eight months out of the year,” Wormuth said.
When war breaks out in the region, Wormuth said the Army’s role would be to establish “staging bases for the Navy, for the Marines, for the Air Force” and to “provide intra-theater sustainment” using the weapons stockpiles and watercraft. She said the US Army would also have a role to play in the American homeland.
“If we got into a major war with China, the United States homeland would be at risk as well, with both kinetic attacks and non-kinetic attacks. Whether it’s cyberattacks on the power grids, or on pipelines, the United States Army, I have no doubt, will be called to provide defense support to civil authorities,” she said.
When asked if the American public could sustain the level of casualties that would come with a war with China, she said they could, just “like we did in World War II.” But both the US and China possess nuclear weapons, meaning a potential war could be catastrophic for the entire world.
Wormuth is the latest US official to openly discuss the fact that the US is preparing for war with China. Earlier this year, a four-star Air Force general predicted the US will be at war with China within two years and ordered his forces to be prepared. “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025,” Gen. Mike Minihan, the head of Air Mobility Command, said of war with China in a leaked memo.
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
GREAT BRITAIN/EU
INTERESTING! Brits have little interest in the “Windsor fremwork” for the finalmajor piece of the Brexit puzzle:the solution to the movement of goods between the European single market and UK and Northern Ireland
(zerohedge)
Brexit: Brits’ Interest In The “Windsor Framework” Is Limited
FRIDAY, MAR 03, 2023 – 02:45 AM
The final major piece of the Brexit puzzle – a solution to the problem of the movement of goods between the European Single Market and the United Kingdom via Northern Ireland – has been agreed upon.
Named the ‘Windsor Framework’ and the result of a meeting between President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the new agreement looks set to go through with little friction.
Despite the major political and economic ramifications of the deal, Statista’s Martin Armstrong reports that a survey by YouGov conducted since the Windsor Framework announcement indicates a significant lack of interest in the issue among the British public.
When asked to what degree they were following the story, just 6 percent said ‘very closely’, combined with an additional 22 percent that were engaged ‘fairly closely’ with the developments.
A combined 72 percent said they were either following it ‘not very closely’, not at all despite being aware of it, or not at all due to a lack of awareness.
end
SWEDEN/MIGANTS
Sweden increases its offer to migrant to voluntarily go home
(Cody/ReMix)
Sweden Increases Money Offered To Migrants To Voluntarily Go Home
Sweden is now looking to follow in the footsteps of Denmark, which has enticed hundreds of migrants home with financial incentives…
Once seen as the most accepting country in the world for refugees, the right-wing Swedish government, elected on a promise to curb immigration, is now enacting reforms to encourage migrants to return to their country of origin.
To accomplish this, the government in Stockholm, together with the Swedish Democrats who support the coalition but are not formally part of the government, is increasing the financial support migrants can receive if they return home voluntarily.
“We are targeting the large number of groups that arrived in the past decades and failed to integrate,” said the migration minister of the Moderate Party, Maria Malmer, to Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter.
Malmer said that they will make sure that everyone who wants support to leave Sweden permanently will get the financial means to make this possible.
In the Scandinavian country, it was already possible for migrants to apply for repatriation support if they decided to return to their home country. However, the program was not popular. In the last 10 years, a total of only 46 immigrants asked the immigration office for money to return to their country of origin, and eight of them have since returned to Sweden.
Currently, a family with a residence permit and protection status who wants to return to their country, if all conditions are met, can receive a “travel” grant of up to 40,000 Swedish kronor (€3,500). The government is now looking to substantially increase this amount to encourage more migrants to sign up.
The plan came about after the Swedish immigration office was given the task of analyzing how to get more people to voluntarily move back to their home country. Sweden’s plan is not unique, as Denmark, known for its restrictive approach to immigration, is already applying the model — so far with more success. In the last 10 years, 300 to 500 migrants have left Denmark every year, receiving a significant amount of financial support for this purpose.
The question now is whether increased financial incentives will encourage more migrants to leave Sweden. A substantial challenge may be due to the fact that Sweden offers extraordinarily generous benefits to migrants, even those subject to deportation orders, which decreases the incentive to leave the country.
Stockholm’s new government is, nevertheless, attempting to follow the example of the Visegrád countries and Austria: and the government is signaling it wants to pursue a policy designed to curb immigration.
As Remix News has previously reported, Swedes have conducted a sharp U-turn on the question of immigration in recent years due to soaring crime, cultural clashes, and fears over changing demographics.
end
5.UKRAINE// RUSSIA//MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
RUSSIA/USA/
Blinken and Lavrov meet for the first time since the war began. It lasted 10 minutes and produced nothing
(zerohedge)
Blinken & Lavrov Meet For First Time Since Ukraine War At G20
THURSDAY, MAR 02, 2023 – 08:00 PM
After last month President Putin declared Russia has suspended participation in the New START nuclear arms control treaty, and at a moment the Kremlin is accusing Washington of aiding cross-border sabotage and drone attacks on its soil, proof has emerged that the two superpower rivals are still talking at the highest levels.
“Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke briefly with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday during the Group of 20 (G-20) conference about the war in Ukraine and the New START nuclear treaty,” The Associated Press reports Thursday.
The two top diplomats spoke for about 10 minutes on the sidelines of the summit, which is the first such in-person meeting since the war’s start, coming shortly after the Ukraine war has entered its second year. Additionally the G20 reportedly ended without finding consensus on Ukraine, with India’s foreign minister citing “divergences” among countries represented.
Blinken referenced the talk with Lavrov at a press conference afterward, a summary of which said:
At a news conference, Blinken said he told Lavrov that the U.S. would continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes and would push for the war to end through diplomatic terms that Kyiv agrees to.
“End this war of aggression, engage in meaningful diplomacy that can produce a just and durable peace,” Blinken said he had told Lavrov. But, he noted that “President Putin, has demonstrated zero interest in engaging, saying there is nothing to even talk about until Ukraine accepts the new territorial reality.”
Blinken said he also urged Russia to reverse “its irresponsible decision and return to” participation in the New START nuclear treaty.
“Mutual compliance is in the interest of both our countries,” Blinken said he told Lavrov, adding that the United States was always willing to discuss arms control with Russia no matter what irritants there are in the bilateral relationship.
Also very notable is that Blinken indicated he put forward a “serious proposal” for the release of detained ex-Marine and US citizen Paul Whelan. He stressed that “Russia should take it.”
Lavrov didn’t specifically respond to Blinken’s description of the meeting, and it’s unclear how he presented the Russian position. But a statement by Lavrov did emphasize that G20 was a failure in terms of addressing the Ukraine crisis:
“Unfortunately, the declaration on behalf of all G20 ministers could not be approved. Our Western colleagues, just as they did a year ago under the Indonesian presidency, tried by all means, by hook or by crook, using various rhetorical statements, to bring to the fore the situation around Ukraine, which they, of course, present under the sauce of the so-called Russian aggression,” he said.
“Nothing good has come of this. The discussion, at least in some of the speeches by Western delegations, especially the G7 countries, has boiled down to emotional statements. And all of this, of course, was done at the expense of a normal discussion of the problems that really stand on the G20 agenda.”
As for India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the meeting in New Delhi on Thursday, saying “The experience of the last few years – financial crisis, climate change, pandemic, terrorism and wars – clearly shows that global governance has failed.” He added: “We should not allow issues that we cannot resolve together to come in the way of those we can.”
Thus Modi seemed to agree with Russia’s negative assessment concluding that G20 leaders fell far short of producing any meaningful resolutions on Ukraine.
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Bakhmut “Practically Surrounded” As Wagner Chief Urges Zelensky Surrender His Forces ‘To Save Lives’
FRIDAY, MAR 03, 2023 – 11:05 AM
Wagner Group is heavily involved in fighting to capture the eastern city of Bakhmut, and its head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has said at this point the strategic city on Donetsk Oblast is “practically surrounded”.
Prigozhin issued a video message to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. Donned in military fatigues, he urged for the order be given for Ukrainian forces to retreat in order to save soldiers’ lives. “Units of the private military company Wagner have practically surrounded Bakhmut. Only one route (out) is left,” he said. “The pincers are closing.”
️Wagner forces walking around Bakhmut this morning showing an RIA reporter the destroyed bridges.
They say that almost all the bridges in Bakhmut have been destroyed by Ukrainian forces. pic.twitter.com/WMlOhjY4mo— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 3, 2023
Wagner has further claimed that the Ukrainians have destroyed the majority of bridges leading in and out of the city center.
Commenting on the aforementioned video by Wagner’s leader, Reuters describes another scene as follows:
The camera panned to show three captured Ukrainians – a grey-bearded older man and two boys – asking to be allowed to go home. From visible buildings, Reuters determined the footage was filmed in Paraskoviivka, a village 7 km (4.3 miles) north of the centre of Bakhmut.
As we reported earlier this week, Zelensky and his top aides have lately issued statements appearing to pave the way for a ‘strategic withdrawal’ – or in reality a retreat – as better-armed and numerically superior Russian forces have the city almost completely encircled.
Russian firepower has also been relentless and reportedly greater in supply with Volodymyr Nazarenko, a deputy commander in the National Guard of Ukraine, telling a public radio station in a fresh statement that fighting has been occurring “round the clock”.
“They take no account of their losses in trying to take the city by assault. The task of our forces in Bakhmut is to inflict as many losses on the enemy as possible. Every meter of Ukrainian land costs hundreds of lives to the enemy,” he said.
Kiev has used the devastating scenes out of Bakhmut to press its Western backers for more artillery shells and heavier weaponry immediately. “We need as much ammunition as possible. There are many more Russians here than we have ammunition to destroy them,” Nazarenko said.
In a Pentagon briefing Thursday, Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters the US is still seeing “intense fighting near Bakhmut.”
“Russian forces and Wagner [Group] mercenaries continue to press their attacks around Bakhmut, and Ukrainian forces continue to hold the line,” Ryder said. “It remains a very fluid situation.”
But again, all signs are pointing to a likely retreat already being in progress. The below unverified footage was first published on Thursday…
️Unconfirmed video reportedly showing a Ukrainian unit withdrawing from Bakhmut this morning. pic.twitter.com/2Irgf3Rp8P— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 3, 2023
On Tuesday for the first time the Ukrainian presidency’s office began significantly shifting its rhetoric. “So far they’ve held the city, but if need be, they will strategically pull back because we’re not going to sacrifice all of our people just for nothing,” Zelensky aide Alexander Rodnyansky conceded earlier.
Since then, Zelensky has admitted the extreme difficulty of the situation, as he’s likely moment by moment mulling giving the order for withdrawal. The Kremlin will see in Bakhmut one of the single and most strategic victories of the war so far, and it will likely open up momentum and will be a key logistics hub for pacifying all of the Donbas.
And yet for now, Ukraine’s military is still sending signals it’s trying to hold out its positions…
Ukrainian Commander of Eastern Forces Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi visited troops in Bakhmut today, proving there’s still a road into the city. He said Russians increasing forces, including units of Wagner & regular army. “Intense fighting in and around the city.” via Land Forces pic.twitter.com/vbG7MTd83k— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 3, 2023
But without doubt the overwhelming momentum is in Moscow forces’ favor at this late stage.
IRAN
Simply awful: poison gas attacks several Iranian girls’ schools have made hundred quite sick. Reason: they refuse to wear their habibs.
(zerohedge0
Suspected Poison Gas Attacks On Iranian Girls’ Schools Have Made Hundreds Sick
THURSDAY, MAR 02, 2023 – 08:40 PM
A mysterious spate of mass illnesses across various parts of Iran only impacting groups of girls is beginning to cause panic and alarm, ironically also at a moment of continuing anti-government protests focusing on women taking off the veil.
Girls in up to 15 cities have been affected, Iranian authorities have said, in what are suspected to be mass poisonings. There’s currently speculation that an unknown entity, possibly hardline Islamists, may be throwing some type of poisonous gas mixture into schools and school yards, causing dozens of girls at a time to fall ill. The bizarre incidents began being reported back in November.
Al Jazeera reports based on the latest statements from Iranian lawmakers that “Similar poisonings have since happened in several other schools in Qom, Tehran, the city of Borujerd in the western province of Lorestan and the northwestern city of Ardebi.” And further, “Scores of schoolgirls have been affected in each incident, and some have had to be hospitalized.”
However, there have been no confirmed deaths in the incidents where the impacted students reported smelling unusual odors such as “rotten tangerines” or strong chemical smells, or even scents akin to perfumes. There have been rumors of a death resulting from the alleged poison attacks, but this was denied by local authorities.
School girls have reported feeling headaches and nausea, and there have been some reports of individuals experiencing temporary paralysis of their limbs.
There’s growing suspicion that these could be attacks by hardline Islamists who condemn the idea of women receiving education, akin to neighboring Afghanistan’s recent banning of all girls’ schooling under Taliban rule. A top Iranian officials has suggested this is the case:
But a deputy health minister, Younes Panahi, earlier this week became the first official to confirm that the poisonings have been deliberate. He told state-linked media that “some people” wish to stop girls from going to school. He did not elaborate.
Panahi said the poisonings have been caused by commercially available chemicals and cannot be transmitted because no viruses or bacteria are involved.
In some instances entire classrooms of students and teachers reported smelling odors before mass sicknesses…
As the poison attacks have in the past days been subject of growing international media attention, Washington has weighed in, with US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby calling the situation “deeply concerning” on Thursday. Investigations at multiple locations are still ongoing.
END
IRAN
Pentagon claims that Iran is 12 days away from obtaining nuclear material: i.e. 90% enriched uranium. I find that hard to believe. Also remember that they will still be a couple years away from taking that material and miniaturizing that for a warhead.
(Ditz/Antiwar.com)
Pentagon Claims Iran Is ’12 Days Away’ From Nuke Material For A Bomb
Speaking to the US House Armed Services Committee, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl falsely testified that Iran could make enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in “about 12 days.”
Kahl claims that Iran’s enrichment capacity has increased sufficiently over the course of the past five years — since the US abandoned the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka the “Iran nuclear deal” — to reduce that timeline from more like a year, and regrets that the JCPOA is “on ice.”
Kahl as the third ranking DOD official said in his testimony, “Because Iran’s nuclear progress since we left the JCPOA has been remarkable. Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce one bomb’s worth of fissile material. Now it would take about 12 days.”
He continued: “And so I think there is still the view that if you could resolve this issue diplomatically and put constraints back on their nuclear program, it is better than the other options. But right now, the JCPOA is on ice.”
But other officials concede that Iran is not stockpiling any uranium enriched beyond 60%, well short of weapons grade, and also doubt Iran’s other technical capacities to build nuclear weapons.
Getting a bomb’s worth of 90% uranium is no small task, even before trying to make it into a deliverable weapon. Iran’s weapons development capabilities would be in doubt even if they were stockpiling uranium, which again they aren’t.
Pentagon officials still maintain that getting back into a deal with Iran is preferable to not having one.
END
HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON/USA
USA offers $10 million reward for information on Hezbollah financial network
(zerohedge)
US Offers Whopping $10 Million Reward For Info On Hezbollah Financial Network
FRIDAY, MAR 03, 2023 – 05:45 AM
The US State Department Rewards for Justice Program has announced a reward offer of up to $10 million for any information which leads to the disruption of financial mechanisms of Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
“Mohammad Bazzi’s been arrested, but Hezbollah is still collecting revenue through people like him. So you may be eligible for a reward if you submit information about Hezbollah’s financial network,” Rewards for Justice said in a tweet.
The call for information and promotion of the $10 million reward possibility came on the heels of the arrest of an alleged top Hezbollah financier, 58-year old Mohammad Bazzi on Friday in Bucharest, Romania. It’s unclear whether a tip alerted US and allied security services to his whereabouts.
The State Dept-run program described on its website, “Hizballah relies on financing and facilitation networks to sustain operations and launch attacks globally.”
“Hezbollah earns almost one billion dollars annually through direct financial support from Iran, international businesses and investments, donor networks, corruption, and money laundering activities,” it added.
Previously the same amount, $10 million, had been offered for information regarding the whereabouts of Bazzi, previously dubbed by the US a “global terrorist”.
Rewards for Justice this week said it will continuing offering these huge reward payments for further information which uncovers and thwarts revenue sources for Hezbollah and its donors, as well as financial institutions it uses for transactions.
Likely the large reward offering is also due to the fact that Hezbollah as an organization is well-known to be highly secretive. Even in Lebanon, where the paramilitary group is deeply involved in local politics and even runs charitable and community organizations, its supporters are known for staying tight-lipped on Hezbollah’s operations and hideouts of top commanders. Its local and regional popularity also is due to it periodically going to war against Israel.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Robert H:
AWFUL!!
Hal Turner Radio Show – Ukraine Soldiers Enter Russia, Attack School Bus, Kill children. Now, Russia has Actually Said it: “We regard You as Participants”
Well at least Lavrov gave Blinken a reality check he will not soon forget even though his arrogance causes him to ignore warnings. The next escalated warning will be much louder.
Jon Stewart, who was one of the only personalities on the left to raise the possibility that the COVID pandemic was caused by a lab leak in Wuhan, has slammed the ‘media narrative machine,’ after renewed credence was given to the likelihood by the Department of Energy.
In 2021, Stewart annoyed many on the left by performing a bit on the Late Show, seemingly also to the chagrin of Stephen Colbert, in which he rubbished the notion that the coronavirus originated in a wet market and instead urged people to look at the ‘Wuhan coronavirus laboratory’.
Stewart said “There’s a novel respiratory coronavirus overtaking Wuhan, China, what do we do? Oh, you know who we could ask? The Wuhan novel respiratory coronavirus lab! The disease is the same name as the lab! That’s just a little too weird, don’t you think?”
Now Stewart has been once again vindicated, he spoke about the problem with the way questions and debate are continually shut down by the establishment media and by extension late night shows and their leftist mouthpieces.
“First of all, I wasn’t waiting on the Department of Energy to weigh in on this,” Stewart said on his podcast, explaining that it’s completely normal to wonder why a virus emerged from the same place where there is a bio- lab studying coronaviruses.
“The larger problem with all of this is the inability to discuss things that are within the realm of possibility without falling into absolutes and litmus-testing each other for our political allegiances as it arose from that,” Stewart continued.
He added, “My bigger problem with that was, I thought it was a pretty good bit that expressed kind of how I felt, and the two things that came out of it were, I’m racist against Asian people, and how dare I align myself with the alt-right.”
“The part that I don’t like about it is the absolutes and the dismissive, like, ‘f*** you, I’m done with you,’ ‘I will never forgive you, you have crossed an unforgivable line.’ ‘You’ve expressed an opinion that is antithetical to mine, or not mine,’” Stewart urged.
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GLOBAL ISSUES:
Excellent commentary on how many of the “conspiracy theories” have already been proven true in 2023:
(Hawthorne/Organic Prepper blog)
Gaslighting: “Conspiracy Theories” Already Proven True In 2023
Preppers get called conspiracy theorists a lot. It’s supposed to be demeaning, but considering how many conspiracy theories have been proven correct lately, I no longer consider it an insult. The more time goes by, the more “conspiracy theorists” just seem ahead of the game.
Quite a few “conspiracy theories” have recently come to light as actual facts in 2023 already. And it’s only the beginning of March.
Let’s look at a recent batch of “conspiracy theories” that aren’t really theories any more.
This is particularly problematic for anyone with fairly new models. Newer appliances are made to break down within about ten years. Anyone who’s been a homeowner for more than a decade knows this. If appliances are made to only last ten years or so, the government doesn’t need to conduct some dramatic midnight raid to steal your stove. All they have to do is wait. Within ten years, most people will have to replace their stoves anyway, and at that point, very few, if any, gas stoves will still be on the market.
Nope, it’s not just a theory. They really do want to get rid of gas stoves.
Covid origins?
And in other Department of Energy news, the agency recently came to the conclusion that Covid probably did come from a lab. The findings were part of a classified report, which the government agency shared with the Wall Street Journal last weekend.
Back in 2021, the FBI had been the only federal agency to state with “moderate confidence” that Covid came from a lab. At the time, their finding mostly went ignored. However, with another agency admitting it, and WSJ covering the story, it becomes more difficult to brush aside.
And at least we’re allowed to openly discuss the lab leak now. Two years ago, we weren’t. In February 2021, Facebook banned any discussion of the possible laboratory origins of Covid. The lab leak theory was just too crazy to even consider. Zero Hedge was banished from Twitter for daring to suggest the makeup of the virus was peculiar in 2020. The Organic Prepper was called a disinformation site and defunded due, in part, to our coverage of the virus.
The Covid lab leak theory is slowly but surely looking less like a theory, and more like an established fact.
The Covid vaccine?
This is hardly the only situation in which Covid dissidents have been proven correct. There has been a small contingent of people from the beginning who were reluctant to participate in the trial of a novel medical product. Considering the many criminal payouts Big Pharma has had to make over the years, wanting long-term studies before trying a novel pharmaceutical product shouldn’t be controversial.
The cost (injecting a poorly-tested novel substance) did not match up with the benefit (avoiding a not-particularly dangerous disease that many of us had a natural immunity to anyway). Plenty of well-informed people had perfectly rational reasons for vaccine hesitancy.
Were our concerns taken seriously? No. The Othering was vicious and relentless. Daisy wrote an article about it here. Family relationships were stressed and sometimes broken. Careers were ended. Opportunities were denied. Reputations were ruined.
And meanwhile, the “safe and effective” drumbeat resounded. Anyone who wanted real answers about what was happening, who wanted to wait for long-term studies, was dismissed as a conspiracy theorist.
So, who was right? Were the shots safe and effective? Or were the conspiracy theorists the reasonable ones?
I’m not a doctor or statistician. All I can do is point at actual numbers. And even the most pro-vax publications cannot hide the non-Covid excess mortality of the past two years. Young, formerly healthy people have been dying at far higher rates than they used to, and it’s not from Covid. As of right now, no one can prove that jabs are responsible, because no one wants to look that closely. But we can’t prove they’re not responsible, either. Safe? I’m not convinced, and neither are a lot of vastly more qualified people. Just look at Ed Dowd’s meticulously researched book, Cause Uknown.
And even Tony “The Science” Fauci recently admitted that the shots don’t really work at preventing transmission or infection. So, nope, these jabs aren’t effective either.
Were the conspiracy theorists right to be cautious about the new shots? Yeah, I think so.
Mandatory masking?
And what about the masks? We got mixed signals about masks from the beginning. In March 2020, Dr. Fauci said they didn’t work, then he later changed his tune. Many people around the country had to deal with mask mandates for over a year.
Well, the experts at the Cochrane Library recently published a huge meta-analysis of the effectiveness of physical barriers (like masks) at preventing respiratory viruses (like Covid). They can’t find any strong links between masking and disease prevention. Cochrane studies are the gold standard. They’re very conservative, they rarely make hard and fast statements, but once they do, people typically stop arguing.
The mask debate is one that really smacks us at the OP because, back in 2021, NewsGuard cited our questioning of the mask narrative as a reason to downgrade us, which really hurt our income stream. Daisy goes into the whole story here. She cited studies with a variety of outcomes regarding masks, and NewsGuard saw the variety of viewpoints as reason enough to downgrade us.
The journalism majors working at NewsGuard don’t seem to understand that letting multiple educated people argue is more true to the scientific ideal than top-down authoritarian mandates.
I’m not the only person saying this. Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford professor and MD, said as much in a recent interview with Jordan Peterson. At 5:26, he talks about public perception during the pandemic:
There was this sort of uni-vocal conclusion that you had to do lockdowns, you had to wear masks, you had to socially distance, you had to put plastic barriers up, you had to close schools, you had to do all of these things; that the vaccines would stop transmission of the disease, that therefore it was warranted that people would lose their jobs over them. All of these ideas were sold as if there was a scientific consensus in favor of them. That was a lie. There was never a scientific consensus on almost any of the topics; and as you say on masks, in fact, the preexisting narrative, the preexisting idea of most scientists before the pandemic, was in quite the opposite direction.
Dr. Bhattacharya’s not the only highly qualified doctor speaking out, either. In fact, so many of the various Covid narratives have been proven wrong, that Dr. Marty Makary, chief of Islet Transplant Surgery at Johns Hopkins medical school, recently published an article February 27 titled “10 myths told by covid experts—and now debunked.”
“Masks prevent transmission” is #2 on the list. I guess if NewsGuard still thinks Daisy is a conspiracy theorist over this one, she’s got some pretty kick-ass company.
But in all seriousness, thank God (or whoever you pray to) for doctors like Dr. Bhattacharya and Dr. Makary for not treating the public like we’re mentally impaired rodents. There are still a few true medical experts out there who genuinely want to educate the public, and give us real answers.
The air and water in East Palestine?
In the meantime, I wonder if the EPA will find any real experts. That agency keeps insisting that the air and water in East Palestine are perfectly safe, despite the derailment and subsequent disaster going on a few weeks ago.
The EPA says they’ve been testing for everything and that the numbers indicate everything looks good; professional chemists aren’t so sure. “They should be testing for individual compounds, and if they are testing for total VOCs [volatile organic compounds] as a screen, they need to have very sensitive instruments because some VOCs are much more toxic than others,” says Ted Schettler, MD, and science director at the nonprofit Science and Environmental Health network. The fact that East Palestine residents are still smelling off odors suggests that the EPA is not using sensitive enough equipment.
And the EPA hasn’t started testing for the myriad other substances that formed when the known chemicals in the train were burned. When you mix chemicals together and burn them, new chemicals form, and this hasn’t even been talked about much yet.
It’s probably going to be a long time before we have a good picture of the damage caused by this derailment. But, what do we know?
We know that the people of East Palestine are still suffering from bizarre symptoms. Rashes, shortness of breath, and a burning sensation while breathing are common. Some people have had voice changes, loss of taste and smell, and random infections. Because East Palestine is such a low-income area, doctors can’t do the tests they need to, though they all agree that the citizens are in real pain.
And yet EPA Administrator Michael Regan states, “Nothing is coming back that shows adverse health impacts.”
Government officials are not helping themselves by insisting there’s “nothing to see here!” Distrusting the federal government has traditionally been in the realm of conspiracy theorists, but once again, which group of people seems more reasonable?
The Twitter files?
I’ve spent a lot of time wondering if I’m too cynical, too eager to see ill intent.
Then came the Twitter Files.
We’ve written about them before on this site. When Elon Musk bought Twitter, he handed over internal documents to independent journalists Bari Weiss, Matt Taibbi, Michael Shellenberger, and Lee Feng to peruse.
Many figures in alternative media had suspected they were being shadow-banned, or having a hard time reaching followers. The Twitter Files confirmed everyone’s worst suspicions: the federal government does spend millions of dollars policing online content, and much of it targets law-abiding citizens with inconvenient opinions, rather than real criminals. Many of the people that had their accounts locked or frozen weren’t even big media presences, just people with a few dozen followers with an annoying sense of humor, or who got snarky about the wrong things.
Five years ago, anyone convinced the Feds were watching their every online move would have been labeled a crazy conspiracy theorist.
Well, yet again, the conspiracy theorists have been proven correct.
The gaslighting continues.
If you’ve ever been in an abusive relationship, you probably know what it’s like to have someone trying to convince you you’re crazy. The only way to survive gaslighting like that is to constantly remind yourself of things you know are true. That’s why it’s so important to keep track of whatever narratives we’re supposed to swallow and constantly check them against our preexisting knowledge base. It’s important to hold purveyors of false narratives to account; it’s important to point to tangible facts and to be able to discuss them.
I think we’re going to keep seeing more of this for a while. Universal Basic Income, digital currencies, AI tech, there are so many new things happening right now.
Researchers in this study looked at blood samples from 16 myocarditis patients, confirmed to have high levels of serum cardiac troponin T. All developed myocarditis after receiving the COVID vaccine
‘All subjects and controls showed a rise in anti-spike antibodies and antibodies to the receptor binding domain (RBD), of all immunoglobulin (Ig) subclasses, IgA, IgM, and IgG. Functional differences were not perceived either, with Fc effector functions being similar in both categories. In short, all vaccinated individuals showed evidence of a protective immune response against the virus.
“We found no indication that a specific antibody response is associated with myocarditis.”
Additionally, these patients did not show evidence of increased autoantibody production or antibody production against other respiratory pathogens that differed in magnitude or range from the controls.
T cells of all relevant subtypes, including naïve, memory, and effector memory T cells, showed similar distributions in both groups. T cells also showed similar proportions of spike-specific memory CD4 T cells and activated CD4 and CD8 T cells. The only exceptions were the observation of small elevations in effector memory cells and PD-1-expressing bulk CD4 T cells in the myocarditis group.
The findings indicated that antibody and T-cell responses could not distinguish between post-vaccine myocarditis subjects and vaccinated controls. The only significant difference was a slight elevation in cytokine production in the former.
The exciting difference was the high level of circulating full-length spike protein in the plasma of myocarditis patients, at a mean of ~34 pg/mL. Furthermore, the protein was not bound to antibodies and remained detectable for up to three weeks from the vaccination date. In contrast, controls did not have free spike protein in their blood.
This difference could not be attributed to poor neutralizing capacity in the myocarditis group, which showed comparable neutralization relative to the control group.
Concordantly, myocarditis patients had cytokine release patterns resembling those found in multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). This might indicate that the innate immune response was overactive, leading to elevations in interleukin (IL)-8, IL-10, IL-4, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, and interferon (INF)-γ relative to healthy controls. IL-8 was most closely associated with raised cardiac troponin T and antigen levels.
Alongside, leukocytes, especially neutrophils, were at higher mean levels in this group than controls, though still within normal range.
What are the implications?
The study shows that the immunological response elicited by the mRNA vaccine was very similar in those who developed post-vaccination myocarditis and others. In other words, myocarditis could not be associated with abnormal autoantibodies, viral infections other than SARS-CoV-2, or excessive production of antibodies elicited by the mRNA vaccine.
In vaccinated patients, infection with the virus was not likely to be a cause or contributing factor for myocarditis since anti-Nucleoprotein IgG was not found in these patients.
In contrast to controls, the finding of high levels of unbound full-length spike protein in myocarditis patients may point to the mechanism by which this condition arises. Similarly, MIS-C patients had circulating SARS-CoV-2 antigens.
The spike protein appears to evade immune antibodies found at normal levels in these patients, with adequate functional and neutralization capacity. The spike may damage the cardiac pericytes or endothelium, perhaps by reducing the expression of the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), reducing nitric oxide production in the endothelium, or activating inflammation via integrins, causing the endothelium to become abnormally permeable.
“Thus, the spike antigen itself, which evades antibody recognition rather than invoking immune hyperactivation, may contribute to myocarditis in these individuals.”
This finding does not amount to evidence against the benefit of vaccination with these vaccines, which effectively protect against severe COVID-19 outcomes. Therefore, current vaccine recommendations are unlikely to be altered due to these results.
“Understanding the immunopathological mechanisms associated with postvaccine myocarditis will help improve safety and guide the development of future coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. These findings also suggest that administration of anti-spike antibodies, if spike antigenemia is detected, could potentially prevent or reverse postvaccine myocarditis.”
Researchers in this study looked at blood samples from 16 myocarditis patients, confirmed to have high levels of serum cardiac troponin T. All developed myocarditis after receiving the COVID vaccine
Huge praise for Jessica and our hearts go out to the Pegula’s, for Kim’s full recovery but it will be difficult and long. That family have done lots for New York, Buffalo.
But it becomes a moral imperative when you have information that could save lives. It must be shared. Unless Hamlin provides proof it was not vaccine induced myocarditis (or similar), then the COVID gene injection vaccine remains on the table as to the cause of his on-field cardiac arrest. It is his private business but he is a public figure and benefits from the public and so he has to help the public now. He must come clean. We want to know only as it relates to our safety. Ms. Pegula’s team should inform the public to the extent they could if her tragedy was due to the gene shot.
Again, this is a decision between you and your doctor but there is no reason these injections should be given to anyone anywhere at this time, no healthy person, no child, yet the evidence is clear, the boosters have failed. This COVID vaccine is DOA and not needed. Must be fully withdrawn. Risks outweigh any benefit yet there is no benefit.
‘All subjects and controls showed a rise in anti-spike antibodies and antibodies to the receptor binding domain (RBD), of all immunoglobulin (Ig) subclasses, IgA, IgM, and IgG. Functional differences were not perceived either, with Fc effector functions being similar in both categories. In short, all vaccinated individuals showed evidence of a protective immune response against the virus.
“We found no indication that a specific antibody response is associated with myocarditis.”
Additionally, these patients did not show evidence of increased autoantibody production or antibody production against other respiratory pathogens that differed in magnitude or range from the controls.
T cells of all relevant subtypes, including naïve, memory, and effector memory T cells, showed similar distributions in both groups. T cells also showed similar proportions of spike-specific memory CD4 T cells and activated CD4 and CD8 T cells. The only exceptions were the observation of small elevations in effector memory cells and PD-1-expressing bulk CD4 T cells in the myocarditis group.
The findings indicated that antibody and T-cell responses could not distinguish between post-vaccine myocarditis subjects and vaccinated controls. The only significant difference was a slight elevation in cytokine production in the former.
The exciting difference was the high level of circulating full-length spike protein in the plasma of myocarditis patients, at a mean of ~34 pg/mL. Furthermore, the protein was not bound to antibodies and remained detectable for up to three weeks from the vaccination date. In contrast, controls did not have free spike protein in their blood.
This difference could not be attributed to poor neutralizing capacity in the myocarditis group, which showed comparable neutralization relative to the control group.
Concordantly, myocarditis patients had cytokine release patterns resembling those found in multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). This might indicate that the innate immune response was overactive, leading to elevations in interleukin (IL)-8, IL-10, IL-4, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, and interferon (INF)-γ relative to healthy controls. IL-8 was most closely associated with raised cardiac troponin T and antigen levels.
Alongside, leukocytes, especially neutrophils, were at higher mean levels in this group than controls, though still within normal range.
What are the implications?
The study shows that the immunological response elicited by the mRNA vaccine was very similar in those who developed post-vaccination myocarditis and others. In other words, myocarditis could not be associated with abnormal autoantibodies, viral infections other than SARS-CoV-2, or excessive production of antibodies elicited by the mRNA vaccine.
In vaccinated patients, infection with the virus was not likely to be a cause or contributing factor for myocarditis since anti-Nucleoprotein IgG was not found in these patients.
In contrast to controls, the finding of high levels of unbound full-length spike protein in myocarditis patients may point to the mechanism by which this condition arises. Similarly, MIS-C patients had circulating SARS-CoV-2 antigens.
The spike protein appears to evade immune antibodies found at normal levels in these patients, with adequate functional and neutralization capacity. The spike may damage the cardiac pericytes or endothelium, perhaps by reducing the expression of the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), reducing nitric oxide production in the endothelium, or activating inflammation via integrins, causing the endothelium to become abnormally permeable.
“Thus, the spike antigen itself, which evades antibody recognition rather than invoking immune hyperactivation, may contribute to myocarditis in these individuals.”
This finding does not amount to evidence against the benefit of vaccination with these vaccines, which effectively protect against severe COVID-19 outcomes. Therefore, current vaccine recommendations are unlikely to be altered due to these results.
“Understanding the immunopathological mechanisms associated with postvaccine myocarditis will help improve safety and guide the development of future coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. These findings also suggest that administration of anti-spike antibodies, if spike antigenemia is detected, could potentially prevent or reverse postvaccine myocarditis.”
50,663 DEAD and 5,315,063 Injured Following COVID-19 Vaccines in European Database of Adverse ReactionsMarch 2, 2023 7:12 pmThe European (EEA and non-EEA countries) database of suspected drug reaction reports is EudraVigilance, verified by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), and they are now reporting 50,663 fatalities, and 5,315,063 injuries following injections of EMA-authorized experimental COVID-19 shots as of February 25, 2023. How were so many millions of people worldwide convinced to take an experimental “vaccine” that has now caused millions of deaths and injuries worldwide? This was the largest propaganda campaign in the history of the human race, using FEAR to intimidate people into agreeing to be injected with a bioweapon, or in many cases, coerced. WE MUST NEVER FORGET!Read More…COVID-19 Vaccine Injured Doctors are Finally Starting to Speak UpMarch 2, 2023 7:26 pmCOVID-19 vaccine injured doctors are finally starting to speak up…and they are shocked that the medical establishment abandons them. “I apologize on behalf of my profession for refusing to listen to patients with vax injuries” – Dr.Michael Huang, physician who treated 4000 COVID patients says he’s seen hundreds of COVID-19 vaccine injuries, cancer, pregnancy loss, etc.Read More…
VACCINE INJURY//
The real story behind what happened in New Zealand during COVID/Vaccine
special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;
Liz Gunn – Letter to the REAL Jacinda Ardern – Forbidden Knowledge TV
It’s Now Impossible To Keep Politics Out Of Central Banks
FRIDAY, MAR 03, 2023 – 09:25 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The court of public opinion
Years ago, the start of quantitative easing caused a backlash over concerns that the central banks were prioritizing the asset-rich over the average Joe. It raised questions about mandates and the independence of the monetary authority, particularly in Europe where the ECB was the only actor to prevent a fragmentation of the Eurozone. And it even raised questions of ethics, after some of the FOMC members’ trading activities came to light.
Plus, for years their policy was unable to revive inflationary pressures. But then, due to circumstances outside the control of central banks, inflation did return – with a vengeance. And while some of these supply-driven inflation shocks do not fall within the realm of control of central banks, it is the monetary policymakers who are now being looked at for last year’s erosion of households’ purchasing power.
The number of news articles in mainstream media related to monetary policy has increased with the rise in inflation, and central banks are under the microscope. Their credibility is tarnished, and they are behind in the court of public opinion.
You would therefore expect monetary policymakers to be a bit more cautious, for example when selecting new executives. The recent appointment of Austan Goolsbee to the position of President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has stirred up quite some dust, though.
First of all, his appointment adds to the concerns that central banks are increasingly becoming politicized, putting the independence of the monetary authorities at risk.
The new head of the Chicago Fed is a prominent Democrat and outspoken critic of the GOP. Now, that of itself shouldn’t be an issue – we all have our political beliefs. And considering that the government picks the national monetary policymakers, that usually results in nominees who are at least to some extent aligned with the political incumbent. This is not just true in the US; the appointment of ECB board members has seen similar horse trading in the highest circles of the EU. And after that pick has been made, it is quite uncommon to see politics in the voting process.
Yet, that is exactly what appears to have happened over the Chicago Fed presidency. Bloomberg News unveiled that the FOMC’s Bowman and Waller, both appointed to the Federal Reserve board by former President Trump, abstained from the confirmation vote. Moreover, the news agency discovered that several of the Chicago Fed directors who nominated Goolsbee to head the institution have been donors to Democratic candidates.
Secondly, and to make matters worse, Bloomberg News followed up on that story yesterday with the news that the executive search consultancy that helped select Goolsbee for the job employs his wife. Responding to the Bloomberg reporters, a spokesperson for the Chicago Fed stated that “members of the search committee, […] were made aware Robin Goolsbee was an employee of the search firm”, and that she didn’t play a role in the selection process. However, none of this information was disclosed during the search or after the choice was made – despite the fact that the regional central bank has been relatively open and transparent about the search process.
Yes, Goolsbee has great papers to lead the institution. And of course, neither of the above may have actually influenced the outcome of the selection process, as the Chicago Fed has stressed too. But the optics sure aren’t great.
The commotion surrounding the appointment of the regional Fed’s executive only adds to President Biden’s headache trying to fill the vacancy left by the departure of Lael Brainard, which is already a contentious pick between inflation (a hawk) and employment (a dove) for the US president. Within his own party, Senator Warren has called for the appointment of a person who will balance some of Powell’s ‘extreme’ rate hikes, to avoid that the Fed’s obsessive inflation fight “puts millions of people out of work”. Keeping politics out of the doors of central banks has become increasingly difficult in the current economic environment.
This more general notion not only holds for the world’s biggest central bank. The ECB, for example, is taking some flak for their insistence that wages are a key risk for the future inflationary process. European central bankers have acknowledged that there should be some wage increases to compensate households for the lost purchasing power, but they have also cautioned labour unions against asking for too much. Last year, the ECB even found itself in a pay dispute with its employees.
While wages, through their impact on inflation, are tied to the bank’s objectives, their recent comments also put the ECB more in the political arena. At a recent retreat, the Governing Council was presented a slide pack detailing how company profit margins have been increasing rather than shrinking, despite the sharp rise in input costs. As the Reuters article summarizes, “the idea that companies have been raising prices in excess of their costs at the expense of consumers and wage earners is likely to anger the general public.” It also implies that the ECB is at risk of overtightening, since profit margins do not have the same self-reinforcing effect on inflation as wages might.
That is particularly true if the ECB continues to point to wages as the main risk for the inflation outlook – which have increasingly become the subject of Lagarde’s press conferences. This assessment not entirely fair, though. The accounts of the October meeting already mentioned an “unusual resilience of profits and profit margins in the light of deteriorating cyclical conditions” and the accounts of the February ECB meeting released yesterday do note that “developments in profits and mark-up warranted constant monitoring and further analysis on an equal footing with developments in wages.”
For now, though, the ECB’s focus remains very much on wages: “until a few months ago wage growth had remained moderate, but now there was a clear acceleration, which had to be taken into account in the outlook for core inflation.” The Council added that the labour market remains tight despite the slowdown in activity. “Therefore, while there was wide agreement that there were no signs of a wage-price spiral, it was argued that current wage growth was clearly not consistent with a 2% inflation target.”
This is the ECB suggesting that they may need to do more to lean against wage developments and a tight labor market – which comes down to depressing demand: “a better than expected growth outlook would contribute to continued inflationary pressures, which were unlikely to abate by themselves without further significant policy tightening.”
Indeed, yesterday’s inflation data for February, which saw core HICP accelerating to 5.6% unexpectedly, may dash some of the doves’ hopes that “the recent dynamics of core inflation showed that there had been a levelling-off of momentum.” That increases the upside risks for the ECB’s policy rate.
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
A BIG STORY: UAE MAY LEAVE THE OIL OPEC CARTEL
(zerohedge)
Oil Slides After Report Of ‘Growing Rift’ Inside OPEC, UAE “Debating” About Leaving Cartel
FRIDAY, MAR 03, 2023 – 09:04 AM
Following recent snubs, The Wall Street Journal reports a growing rift between two of OPEC’s largest producers – Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Still formally allies, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. have diverged on several fronts, competing for foreign investment and influence in global oil markets and clashing on the direction of the Yemen war.
The disagreements once unfolded behind closed doors but are increasingly spilling out into the open, threatening to reorder alliances in the energy-rich Persian Gulf at a time when Iran is trying to exert more sway across the region and Russia’s war in Ukraine has raised crude prices and roiled OPEC decision-making.
Crude prices tumbled on the news as fears of a crack in OPEC’s production promises may lead to more supply
Crucially, within OPEC, the U.A.E. is obligated to pump much less than it is capable of, hurting its oil revenue.
It has long pushed to pump more oil, but the Saudis have said no, OPEC delegates have said.
Now, some Emirati officials say, the U.A.E. is having an internal debate about leaving OPEC, a decision that would shake the cartel and undermine its power in global oil markets.
And most recently, the Emiratis clashed with the Saudis last October when OPEC+ decided to dramatically reduce oil production to prop up crude prices.
“Up until a few years ago, this sort of division and openly pursuing objectives that are counter to what their brothers are pursuing was unheard of,” said Dina Esfandiary, senior adviser for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group.
“Now it’s becoming increasingly normal.”
The Emiratis are “worried about a Saudi that works against their interests,” said Ms. Esfandiary. She said the Saudis are concerned the U.A.E. poses a threat to Saudi dominance in the Gulf.
END
For your interest………
The Rise Of Crude Tanker “Cannibals” In Wake Of Russia-Ukraine War
The Ukraine-Russia war has rerouted crude tanker flows over the past year, equating to higher profits for shipowners. But the upside is not evenly spread. Midsize crude tankers have been the big beneficiaries.
It’s not only that Russian crude export terminals can’t handle larger tankers. A highly unusual transport pattern for U.S. crude exports has emerged, creating another war-induced headwind for owners of larger tonnage.
VLCCs cannibalize trans-Atlantic trade
Prior to the war, U.S. crude exports to Europe were loaded aboard midsize Aframaxes (tankers with capacity of 750,000 barrels) and Suezmaxes (1 million barrels). U.S. crude exports to Asia were loaded aboard very large crude carriers (VLCCs; 2 million barrels).
Europe hiked its crude imports from the U.S. in the wake of the invasion, replacing seaborne imports from Russia, which have been banned since Dec. 5.
Much of Europe’s incremental volume from the U.S. has moved aboard VLCCs, not midsize tankers — a transport model that was extremely rare before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Virtually all the additional [U.S.] sales to Europe were done on VLCCs,” wrote Erik Broekhuizen, manager of marine research at Poten & Partners, in a report Friday.
Tanker demand is measured in ton-miles: volume multiplied by distance. If ships switch to shorter routes, it’s a negative for demand, and thus, for spot rates.
VLCCs have “cannibalized” the shorter-haul U.S.-Europe business of Aframaxes and Suezmaxes. Simultaneously, China has increased imports from Russia, limiting Chinese demand for longer-haul U.S. exports. Both are negative for VLCC voyage distance.
“The problem is that more VLCCs are arriving in the Atlantic than leaving,” said ship brokerage BRS on Monday. “The latest data suggests that 108 VLCCs are currently trading west of Suez and that more are arriving every day, making the Atlantic crude tanker market more competitive.
“Preliminary information suggests that the number of VLCCs transporting U.S. crude to Europe could hit a record over the coming weeks,” BRS said.
VLCCs now ‘world’s largest shuttle tankers’
Changes in crude trade patterns since the war “have benefited the midsize sectors given that the main Russian load ports in the Baltic, the Black Sea and the Far East are all inaccessible to VLCCs,” explained Kevin Mackay, CEO of Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK), during a conference call Thursday.
Clarksons Securities estimated Monday that spot rates of non-eco-designed VLCCs were $59,700 per day. That’s a highly profitable rate, but Suezmaxes — with half the carrying capacity of VLCCs — were earning $65,600 per day.
“VLCCs are now regularly cannibalizing multiple cargoes that would usually be transported on two Suezmaxes or three Aframaxes,” said BRS, noting that VLCCs are more competitive than midsized tankers on a dollar-per-ton basis.
Consequently, VLCCs have become “the world’s largest shuttle tankers,” BRS said.
Lars Barstad, CEO of Frontline (NYSE: FRO), said during a conference call Tuesday, “With the situation around oil being redirected from Russia, you’re basically seeing both Aframaxes and Suezmaxes getting drawn into that trade. That’s giving VLCCs an opportunity to enter [midsize tanker] markets.
“VLCCs have started trading Suezmax stems [cargoes]. So right now, you’re seeing a high number of fixtures where VLCCs are stepping in to what you’d typically call a Suezmax trade — U.S. Gulf to UK Continent [Europe], for example. Various asset classes are eating into each other’s business segments.”
More ‘reverse lightering’ in US Gulf
U.S. Gulf ports do not have the water depth to accommodate fully loaded VLCCs. Instead, these cargoes are “reverse lightered.” They are loaded first on Aframaxes or Suezmaxes, with the oil then moved to VLCCs via ship-to-ship transfers.
“Since the cannibalization trend arrived in mid-2022, charterers have become better at utilizing infrastructure in the U.S. Gulf,” explained BRS. “[They are] part-loading in ports and booking reverse lightering in advance to more efficiently load VLCCs.”
BRS also pointed out the increased use of VLCCs for shorter-haul shipments to Europe is tying up more Aframaxes and Suezmaxes in reverse-lightering duties in the U.S. Gulf, another plus for midsize tanker rates.
China favoring Russian crude over US crude
The U.S.-China crude trade, because of its extreme distance, is a key variable in global VLCC demand. It takes seven weeks to travel from the U.S. to China via the Cape of Good Hope at 13 knots.
According to BRS, “Long-haul U.S. crude exports remained relatively flat year on year [in 2022], which, when viewed in the context of the surge in total U.S. crude exports, was viewed as disappointing, especially by VLCC owners.”
U.S. crude shipments to China averaged around 200,000 barrels per day last year, in line with 2021 volumes. They have remained at the same level in the first two months of this year.
Broekhuizen of Poten is optimistic on U.S.-China crude flows in the remainder of this year. “We expect more crude exports from the U.S. Gulf in 2023, [and] we anticipate that less of the incremental barrels will go to Europe,” he said. “This means that more crude may find its way to Asia, especially to China.
“For the VLCC markets, this means more tonnage will likely be employed on the long-haul routes to Asia, boosting ton-mile demand and freight rates. As a result, we expect VLCCs will become less competitive in the trans-Atlantic trade and Suezmaxes and Aframaxes will regain market share.”
Earnings roundup
On Tuesday, Frontline reported net income of $240.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 versus $19.8 million in Q4 2021. Adjusted earnings of 97 cents per share came in below the consensus estimate of $1.08. The latest period was Frontline’s best quarter since Q2 2008.
Frontline owns VLCCs, Suezmaxes, Aframaxes and product tankers. Its spot VLCCs earned an average of $63,200 per day in Q4 2022, nearly four times rates a year ago. The company has 87% of its available VLCC days booked for Q1 2023 at $58,300 per day.
Also on Tuesday, International Seaways reported net income of $218.4 million for Q4 2022 compared to a loss of $34 million in Q4 2021. Adjusted earnings of $4.21 per share came in much higher than the consensus forecast for $3.92. The latest period was the best quarter since the company’s listing in 2016.
International Seaway’s owns a fleet of VLCCs, Suezmaxes, Aframaxes and product tankers. Its spot VLCCs earned an average of $64,596 per day in the latest quarter, compared to $14,326 per day the year before. It has 83% of its available spot VLCCs days for Q1 2023 booked at $46,600 per day.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0604 UP .0008
USA/ YEN 136.21 DOWN 0.508/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.1990 UP 0.0041
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3592 DOWN .0005 (CDN DOLLAR UP 5 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 17.74 PTS OR 0.54%
Hang Sang CLOSED UP 138.08 PTS OR 0.68%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .32% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 138.08 PTS OR 0.68%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.74 PTS OR 0.54%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.32%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 428,60 PTS OR 1.56%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1846.05
silver:$21.06
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 104.81 DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP ..(6.9069)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.9120
TURKISH LIRA: 18.90 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.5000…VERY DANGEREOUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 4,001% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.920 DOWN 10 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 4.895 DOWN 3 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 104.785 DOWN 17 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 7.32 PTS OR 0.09%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 257.25 POINTS OR 1.68 %
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 72.38PTS OR 0.99%
Spain IBEX UP 139.20 POINTS OR 1.49%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 436.46PTS OR 1.59/%
WTI Oil price 78.94 12: EST
Brent Oil: 85.31 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// UP TO: 75.63/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 32/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.7160
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.894 UP 71BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0624 UP 0.0036 OR 36 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2043 UP .0094 or 94 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.831% DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.82 DOWN .904////YEN UP 90 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3587 DOWN .0010 (CDN dollar, UP 10 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 79.17
Brent OIL: 85.89
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 11 BASIS pts to 3.967%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 13 BASIS PTS to 3.896%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 4 PTS AT 4.8617%
USA dollar index: 104.48 DOWN 52 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.90
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 75.63 DOWN 0 AND 32/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 387,40 PTS OR 1.17%
NASDAQ 100 UP 245,94 PTS OR 2.04%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.53 DOWN 1.08 PTS (5.51)%
GLD: $170.66 UP 1.83 OR 1.07%
SLV/ $19.55 UP 0,31 OR 1.61%
end)
1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Big Squeeze Breaks Stocks’ Losing Streak As Bond Curve Screams Recession
FRIDAY, MAR 03, 2023 – 04:01 PM
‘Good’ Services ISM news prompted an immediate ‘bad’ news response in stocks, but that was rapidly shrugged off as the market built on early gains (although we noticed heavy net gamma selling into the ramp for the first hour), despite more hawkish FedSpeak…
The Fed said in its semi-annual report to Congress released Friday, “The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective.”
Officials expect that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive.”
At 11ET, Dallas Fed’s Logan warned that “The US financial system has become increasingly vulnerable to core market dysfunction…” but did not address monetary policy
At 13ET, Boston Fed’s Collins said “more work to do”, adding that additional rate-hikes are needed to cool prices, inflation remains too high. “I anticipate that reducing inflation back to target will require additional federal funds rate increases to bring interest rates to a sufficiently restrictive level, and then holding there for some perhaps extended time.”
Additionally, former Treasury Sec Larry Summers told Bloomberg TV that “The Fed right now should have the door wide open to a 50 basis-point move in March,” adding that “they have not been this far behind the curve for a year or so.”
All of which pushed rate-hike odds for March and May higher (25% and 15% odds of 50bps respectively)…
Source: Bloomberg
During the week, the Terminal rate topped 5.50% and any expectation of a rate-cut in H2 2023 was gone…
Source: Bloomberg
But today saw an extension of yesterday’s exuberant bounce, purportedly on Bostic’s comments (though no one actually believes that), that left the Nasdaq up over 2.5% on the week…
The Dow ended a 4-week losing streak, breaking back above its 100DMA…
The S&P tested its 200DMA then ripped back higher, thru its 50DMA…
The Nasdaq tested its 200DMA and then dip-buyers ran wild…
Consumer Staples and Utes were the only sectors in the red for the week while Materials outerperformed…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman noted that net flows into global equity funds remained negative in the week ending March 1 (-$7bn vs -$7bn in the previous week), driven by outflows from US equity funds, which have remained negative for four consecutive weeks. Flows into global fixed income funds accelerated (+$8bn vs +$5bn in the previous week) on stronger inflows into government bond funds and IG credit, which had seen more mixed flows in recent weeks… and who can blame them for rotating…
Source: Bloomberg
The ramp of the last two days has been on the back of a classic short-squeeze with ‘most shorted’ stocks spiking over 6%…
On the 0DTE side of the market, both today and yesterday saw negative pressure into the cash opening ramps in equities. It didn’t work yesterday… and this afternoon saw the S&P surge on initial 0DTE call-buying and then later on accelerate higher on unwinds of 0DTE uts…
VIX decoupled (to the downside) from stocks this week…
Source: Bloomberg
VVIX and Skews also collapsed this week, despite major event risks in the next few weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed on the week, despite a buying-frenzy today. The short-end underperformed while the long-end actually ended the week lower in yields (2Y +5bps, 30Y -5bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
10Y and 30Y yields closed the week back below 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) flattened even further this week nearing 100bps of inversion…
Source: Bloomberg
That is its most inverted ever…
Source: Bloomberg
On a side note, inflation expectations (swaps) have surged back up near cycle highs…
Source: Bloomberg
And while homebuilder stocks managed gains this week, we suspect that won’t last long as mortgage rates surged back above 7.00% this week…
Source: Bloomberg
After 4 straight weeks higher, the dollar tumbled almost 1% this week…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin trended sideways all week between $23k and $24k until last night in Asia when it puked back to $22k (potentially after all the headlines around Signature Bank), breaking below the 50DMA ($22870) for the first time since Jan4th…
Source: Bloomberg
Commodities were broadly higher this week with NatGas ripping over 20% to a $3 handle today, extending its big bounce off recent $1 handle lows…
Oil prices plunged early on after WSJ report of a rift between Saudi and UAE – that was denied within an hour and WTI exploded higher, tagging $79…
Gold surged over 2% this week back above $1850…
Finally, for some context as to how massively the market has shifted its perception about The Fed’s rate trajectory, here is the before and after picture of the short-term rate curve since February’s blowout payrolls print…
Source: Bloomberg
The pivot is gone and the terminal rate has soared and yet stocks refuse to face reality…
USA service PMI (service is 70% of USA GDP) expands and signals that inflation is re acelerating
(zerohedge)
US Services PMI Signals Inflation Re-Accelerating In Feb, Return To Expansion
FRIDAY, MAR 03, 2023 – 10:05 AM
With both manufacturing sector surveys still in contraction (and signaling a staglfationary drop in production while prices paid rebound), expectations were for both Services sector surveys to signal growth in February.
The final print from S&P Global’s US Services PMI was 50.6, up from the flash print of 50.5, and a big rebound from the 46.8 print in January.
After a big rebound in January (from the sudden plunge in December), ISM’s Services PMI dipped very modestly from 55.2 to 55.1 (better than the expected 54.5).
Source: Bloomberg
This is a return to expansion (albeit barely) for S&P Global’s survey after seven months of contraction.
While S&P Global’s survey reports an increase in prices paid for services and manufacturing (and ISM’s manufacturing survey also showed an increase in prices paid), the ISM Services signal was a continued drop in the prices paid, while new orders and employment picked up…
“A return to growth of US service sector business activity in February for the first time in eight months has offset a decline in manufacturing output, helping stabilize the economy and hopefully avert a downturn in the first quarter.
“The upturn was led by a revival in spending on services by consumers and improved activity in the tech sector, but was also aided by a marked cooling in the recent downturn in financial services.
“Across both services and manufacturing, jobs growth has risen to a five-month high as business confidence about the year ahead has perked up to its highest since last May, reviving further from the low-point seen last October. Clearly the gloom heading into the winter has been replaced with brighter prospects moving into the spring.
“This improving picture has, however, added to firms’ pricing power. Having fallen to a 27-month low in January, the rate of inflation for goods and services reaccelerated in February to its highest since last October as companies reported greater success in passing higher costs on to customers.”
Finally, the S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 50.1 in February, up from 46.8 in January.
The latest data signalled an end to a seven-month sequence of contraction and indicated broadly stable levels of business activity at private sector firms.
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS
end
This will hurt the uSA economy greatly: mortgage rates climb above 7% and that sends homebuyer applications to 28 year lows
(zerohedge)
Surge In Mortgage Rates Above 7% Sends Homebuyer Applications To 28 Year Low
THURSDAY, MAR 02, 2023 – 07:20 PM
One month ago, when looking at the CME’s little known housing price futures, we noted that at least according to the market, housing has now bottomed. A lot has changed since then, and while the May 23 Housing Price Futures contract has continued to ascent confirming the market remains optimistic in a bottom…
… the recent surge in mortgage may soon spoil the bullish outlook.
According to Bankrate, the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped back over 7%, rising to 7.06% (7.10% according to Mortgage News Daily), the highest level since early November.
“Rates continue to move at the suggestion of economic data, and the data hasn’t been friendly. This is scary considering this week’s data is insignificant compared to several upcoming reports,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.
When rates went over 7% last October – the highest level in more than 20 years – the housing market was being read its last rites, which was also one of the reasons why many expected the Fed to ease back on its tightening. But rates then pulled back in the following months, as inflation appeared to be easing. By mid-January rates were touching 6%, spurring a big jump in buyers signing contracts on existing homes.
Since then, various housing indicators have shown a sizable improvement including new home sales , largely the result of a plunge in prices…
… as well as pending home sales which rose an unexpectedly strong 8% from December, according to the National Association of Realtors. But the past four weeks have been rough, with rates moving sharply some 100bps since the start of February.
That means that for a buyer purchasing a $400,000 home with 20% down on a 30-year fixed loan, the monthly payment, including principal and interest, is now roughly $230 a month more than it would have been a month ago. Compared with a year ago, when rates were in the 4% range, today’s monthly payment is about 50% higher, according to CNBC’s Diana Olick.
As a result, mortgage applications from homebuyers have been falling for the past month and last week hit a 28-year low.
“The recent jump in mortgage rates has led to a retreat in purchase applications, with activity down for three straight weeks,” said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. “After solid gains in purchase activity to begin 2023, higher rates, ongoing inflationary pressures, and economic volatility are giving some prospective homebuyers pause about entering the housing market.”
At the start of this year, with rates slightly lower, it appeared the housing market was starting to recover just in time for the traditionally busy spring season. But that recovery has now stalled, and rising rates are only part of the picture.
“Consumers have taken on a record amount of debt, including mortgage, personal, auto, and student loans,” noted George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com. “With rising interest rates, financial burdens are expected to increase, making consumer choices more difficult in the months ahead.”
Which, of course, is just what the Biden admin and the Fed want.
end
This is good news: after huge days of severe rain and winter storms, mother nature fills reservoirs after years long drought
(zerohedge)
|
California’s Years-Long Drought Eases As Mother Nature Fills Reservoirs
THURSDAY, MAR 02, 2023 – 10:40 PM
A map released on Thursday by US Drought Monitor shows that the convey belt of severe rain and winter storms for the last two months has significantly eased California’s extreme drought.
The Sierra Nevada region in north-central California, the coastline stretching from Monterey Bay to northwest Los Angeles County, and parts of northwest California, including Humboldt and Del Norte counties, are no longer classified as being in a state of drought.
The middle of the state is now labeled as “abnormally dry,” while northeast California and the high desert of southeastern California remain in “severe drought” and “moderate drought” classifications — but easing from extreme levels several months ago.
On Jan. 12, the drought map showed that conditions in various regions had started to improve after a series of storms in the first two weeks of the month.
Since the recent snowstorms, snowpack levels across the state have reportedly reached a 40-year high.
There’s so much snow in Southern California that Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency.
All the storms have been a boon for California’s reservoirs. The latest figures show 94% of major reservoir levels are at normal for this time of year. This is great news following last summer when reservoir levels were dangerously low.
And just like that, Mother Nature heals itself without any assistance from Democrats who tax the heck out of people in the name of ‘saving the planet.’
Even tech bulwarks like Amazon, Meta and Twitter carried out mass layoffs, with Jeff Bezos’ company topping the global ranking for corporations with the most laid-off employees with 18,000 layoffs. On January 19, Microsoft announced it would reduce its workforce by about ten thousand. A day later, Google parent Alphabet announced it would cut 12,000 jobs.
In November 2022 alone, more than 50,000 tech workers were laid off globally. Meta laid off 11,000 employees, Amazon laid off 10,000, and Salesforce laid off another 1,000 after previous waves of layoffs. Crypto companies were among the hardest hit in the fintech sector. Even though only 63 companies reduced their workforce, industry heavyweights Crypto.com, Coinbase and Kraken alone reduced their workforces by a combined total of more than 5,000 employees, likely due in part to market volatility and the drastic drop in the price of popular tokens such as Bitcoin, dubbed the “crypto winter.”
Since the beginning of the year, more than 120,000 employees have been laid off at tech-related companies, which is around 75 percent of the tech and startup workforce let go in all of 2022. Most recently, companies such as Dell, PayPal, IBM, Yahoo and Zoom parted ways with 1,300 to 6,500 employees each. In total, about 283,000 people were laid off between January 1, 2022, and March 2, 2023, about 68 percent of them in the United States.
Also partly responsible for the unprecedented wave of layoffs are Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and increased plant closures in China due to the People’s Republic’s zero-covid strategy, which has significantly exacerbated the global economic situation.
In addition to external factors, these layoffs can also be attributed to miscalculations from previous years. Meta, for example, increased its workforce by 60 percent between 2019 and 2021, from nearly 45,000 to 72,000 employees.
The only GAMAM member skirting major layoff rounds is Apple, allegedly in part due to CEO Tim Cook taking a pay cut of $50 million, 40 percent of his total income generated from the company.
end
More signs of the trouble ahead for the uSA economy: subprime auto loans are surging
(zerohedge)
“It’s Going To Bite Us” – Upside-Down Auto Loans Surge
FRIDAY, MAR 03, 2023 – 08:45 AM
Consumers face increasing financial difficulties due to high inflation, rising interest rates, maxed-out credit cards, lack of personal savings, and nearly two years of negative real wage growth, resulting in an emerging distress cycle for subprime auto loans.
According to S&P Global, more than 6% of subprime auto loans were at least 60 days overdue in December, a more significant percentage than during the 2008-09 GFC.
Bloomberg reported that auto dealers had noticed an alarming rise in customers who trade in their vehicles with negative equity of $10,000.
“As trade-in values begin to cool, each month more and more consumers will find themselves falling from positive to negative equity.
“Unless American car shoppers break their habit of buying again too soon, we’ll see the negative equity tide continue to rise,” Ivan Drury, director of insights at auto-market researcher Edmunds, said.
… which was to be expected: after all, the latest consumer credit report from the Fed revealed an exponential spike in the number of new car loans, which increased by more than $2,000 in one quarter, from just over $38,000 (a record) to $40,155 (a new record).
And purchasing a new car has become less feasible for the average person. Approximately two out of every 13 individuals are making monthly car payments of $1,000 or more. The average loan rate for new car loans just hit a 13-year high and will soon rise even higher.
Yet a giant wave of auto loan defaults among subprime Americans has yet to hit. Perhaps the negative-equity surge is the tipping point. Edmunds data shows average negative equity on trade-ins is approaching pandemic highs of $5,500.
“Because these car loans are generally unaffordable at the outset, that means that every month, borrowers are getting closer to the financial edge,” said Kathleen Engel, a law professor at Suffolk University.
Pete Kesterson, the general manager of a car dealership in Falls Church, Virginia, warned:
“It’s going to come, and it’s going to bite us,” referring to negative equity, which he believes will worsen.
“Now, we’re selling the cars for so much more, and financing for longer, at a much higher interest rate. There are some challenges coming down the pike.”
The rising delinquency rates for subprime auto loans are unexpectedly happening at the current record-low unemployment rates. Too many borrowers with low credit scores took on too much auto debt during Covid. Now the payback period has arrived.
FAUCI UNDER FIRE: British Scientist Given $1.88 Million Grant, $16.5 Million in NIH Funding After He Changed His Story and Came Out Publicly to Lie for Fauci About Origins of COVID
On January 31, 2020, Danish-born and British-educated scientist Kristian Andersen, emailed Dr. Tony Fauci saying the virus looks lab-made.
Kristian Anderson, “Some of the features look engineered” and the “genome looks inconsistent with evolutionary theory.”
Thenon February 4, 2020, after a call with Dr. Tony Fauci, British scientist Kristian Anderson wrote that the lab leak theory was a conspiracy theory.
Kristian Anderson, “The main crackpot theories going around at the moment related to this virus being somehow engineered… and that is demonstrably false.”
So what happened between January 31, 2020 and February 4, 2020?
Dr. Tony Fauci called Dr. Kristian Anderson and ordered him to publicly say the COVID virus was NOT lab-made.
The New York Times reported on Anderson’s early email to Dr. Fauci in an article published in June 2021.
Over the past year, Dr. Andersen has been one of the most outspoken proponents of the theory that the coronavirus originated from a natural spillover from an animal to humans outside of a lab. But in the email to Dr. Fauci in January 2020, Dr. Andersen hadn’t yet come to that conclusion. He told Dr. Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, that some features of the virus made him wonder whether it had been engineered, and noted that he and his colleagues were planning to investigate further by analyzing the virus’s genome.
The researchers published those results in a paper in the scientific journal Nature Medicine on March 17, 2020, concluding that a laboratory origin was very unlikely. Dr. Andersen has reiterated this point of view in interviews and on Twitter over the past year, putting him at the center of the continuing controversy over whether the virus could have leaked from a Chinese lab.
When his early email to Dr. Fauci was released, the media storm around Dr. Andersen intensified, and he deactivated his Twitter account. He answered written questions from The New York Times about the email and the fracas. The exchange has been lightly edited for length.
Dr. Anderson switched his story in 4 days after his call with Tony Fauci.
But, The New York Times conveniently omitted that after his call with Dr. Fauci on February 1, 2020, Dr. Anderson was given a $1.88 million grant and $16.5 million in funding from NIAID, Dr. Fauci’s personal piggy bank.
Dr. Andrew Huff testified to this fact back in 2022. He released this information in a legal report he signed created by the Renz Law Group.
Dr. Andrew Huff reported that Dr. Anderson’s funding at the Scripps Research Institute increased from $393,079 per month, to $800,139 per month after he backed down on the COVID lab-leak theory. (page 56)
The man on the left is Kristian Andersen, a British scientist who emailed Fauci 1/31/20, saying the virus looks lab-made. The man on the right is Kristian Andersen, the guy who Fauci called on 2/1/20 and ordered to publicly say it wasn’t lab-made, which he did. Fauci then gave… https://t.co/UDzIhNb37kpic.twitter.com/LY7ttS23kJ
special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:
Pentagon Inspector General: Joe Biden is Hiding Classified Documents Detailing Side Deals He Made with Taliban and Against US Troops | The Gateway Pundit
This should be lots of fun: House Judiciary and Intelligence Committee sends demandletters to officials who discredited the Hunter Biden lab story
(zerohedge)
“Comply Promptly”: House Judiciary, Intel Committees Send Demand Letters To Officials Who Discredited Hunter Biden Story
THURSDAY, MAR 02, 2023 – 06:40 PM
Two House Committees investigating Biden family malarkey have sent demand letters to 29 Central Intelligence officials who discredited the Hunter Biden laptop story, and have yet to respond to previously requested interviews.
Jim Jordan, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, and Mike Turner, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, reiterated their requests for testimony, and asked that the officials “comply promptly,” the Daily Caller reports.
“The Committee on the Judiciary and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence are conducting oversight of federal law-enforcement and intelligence matters within our respective jurisdictions. The Judiciary Committee made a prior request to you for documents and information about the public statement you signed in October 2020 that falsely implied the New York Post’s reporting about Hunter Biden was the product of Russian disinformation,” read the letters.
Both The Washington Post and The New York Times noted the authenticity of Hunter Biden’s laptop in March 2022, more than one year after the Daily Caller News Foundation first verified it. Recent reporting by the Daily Caller and other outlets has highlighted the Biden family’s extensive dealings with Chinese companies, including a presentation Hunter Biden gave promoting American shale and natural gas to Chinese businessmen. -Daily Caller
“This request, to include a request for a transcribed interview before the Committees, remains outstanding. These documents and your testimony are necessary to further our oversight. As we begin the 118th Congress, we write again to reiterate our outstanding request and ask that you immediately comply in full,” read the letters.
“You have been on notice about our oversight request—and aware the request is outstanding—for months. For your convenience, we have attached the letter from the Judiciary Committee dated April 6, 2022. To date, you have not complied with this request. Accordingly, we reiterate our requests and ask that you comply promptly.“
The letters were sent to:
Nada Bakos
David B. Buckley
David Cariens
Janice Cariens
Peter Corsell
Brett Davis
Glenn Gerstell
Steven L. Hall
Kent Harrington
Don Hepburn
Timothy D. Kilbourn
Andrew Liepman
Ronald Marks
Jonna Hiestand Mendez
John Moseman
Emile Nakhleh
Gerald A. O’Shea
David Priess
Pamela Purcilly
Chris Savos
John Sipher
Stephen Slick
Cynthia Strand
Greg Tarbell
David Terry
Gregory Treverton
John D. Tullius
David A. Vanell
Winston Wiley
end
THE KING REPORT
The King Report March 3, 2023 Issue 6960Independent View of the NewsBlackstone blocked investor withdrawals from $71 billion REIT in Februaryhttp://reut.rs/3ENt4Fo
Blackstone Defaults on €531 Million Nordic Property CMBS Blackstone Inc. has defaulted on a €531 million ($562 million) bond backed by a portfolio of offices and stores owned by Sponda Oy, a Finnish landlord it acquired in 2018… Nordic real estate has been at the forefront of Europe’s real estate correction after a long period of relative calm following the global financial crisis. Investors have been spooked by Nordic landlords’ use of relatively short-term debt, which has made them more vulnerable to rising rates. The level of cross-ownership in the sector, where multiple real estate companies own stakes in one another has also exacerbated concerns… https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-defaults-531-million-nordic-140209893.html
BLS: Productivity increases 1.7% in Q4 2022; unit labor costs increase 3.2% (annual rates) Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a 4.9-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 1.7-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 6.3 percent over the last four quarters… https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm
Tesla tumbled 8% at the start of Thursday’s US trading day following its four-hour investor dayhttps://t.co/hHXX0uwWLv
ESHs rallied in early Nikkei trading but commenced a tumble at 19:52 ET. ESHs made a daily low 6 minutes after the 3:00 ET European opening. The ensuing grinding rally ended after the US repo market opening at 7 ET. The decline ended with the pre-NYSE rally. ESHs and stocks dipped at the NYSE open, but conditioned traders poured into ESHs and stocks.
ESHs peaked near 10:00 ET. ESHs and stocks then rolled over and went flat until Richmond Fed President Bostic unleashed a massive equity (but not bond) rally by suggesting a summer pause!
Bostic (NOT an FOMC voter): “Right now I’m still in a very firmly in the quarter-point move pacing. It is appropriate for us to be cautious and carefully calibrate to make sure that we don’t do more than we need to…” When asked about pausing rate hikes, Bostic said, “I would expect that we could be in position by the middle of the summer, late summer…”
The Fed teems with liberals, and many are also activists, like Goolsbee, who has a partisan history.
ESHs and stocks peaked at 15:38 ET and then eased lower into the close.
Bostic, Daly, and Powell (and their ilk) are playing with fire with their periodic dovish braying while inflation is reigniting. Whether the motivation is political or a desire to boost stocks, Fed politicians are exacerbating inflationary pressures with verbal intervention that loosens financial conditions.
USHs traded flat in early Asian trading. A decline began at 19:38 ET that took USH from a high of 124 6/32 to 122 22/32 (-1 14/32) at 12:15 ET. USHs rallied to 123 7/32 on Bostic but they then rolled over.
@Convertbond: A. Top 30% of consumers hold most of the $1.3T excess savings, higher internet rates gives them an extra $60B a year. B. Bottom 70% hold most of the $4.8T of consumer debt (credit cards, auto loans, home mbs, etc). Every 1% is $40B extra interest costs.
Car debt is piling up as more Americans owe thousands more than vehicles are worthDealers worry record prices leading to negative-equity surgeMore consumers could be left without vehicle-financing optionsThe cost of new vehicles has risen 20% since the start of the pandemic, while used vehicles are still up 37% even after cooling in the fall…For trade-ins that carry negative equity, the average amount is approaching prepandemic levels at $5,500, according to Edmunds data… https://t.co/NaKyVTKios
Japan births fall to record low as population crisis deepens The country saw 799,728 births in 2022, the lowest number on record and the first ever dip below 800,000, according to statistics released by the Ministry of Health on Tuesday. That number has nearly halved in the past 40 years; by contrast, Japan recorded more than 1.5 million births in1982. Japan also reported a record high for post-war deaths last year, at more than 1.58 million… It’s a familiar story throughout East Asia, where South Korea’s fertility rate — already the world’s lowest — dropped yet again last year in the latest setback to the country’s efforts to boost its declining population. Meanwhile, China is inching closer to officially losing its title as the world’s most populous country to India after its population shrank in 2022 for the first time since the 1960s… https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/01/asia/japan-births-2022-record-low-intl-hnk/index.html
Low, let alone negative birthrates, will facilitate the collapse of sovereign debt, Social Security, and other entitlement Ponzi Schemes.
Positive aspects of previous session Bostic generated the biggest equity rally in over 2 weeks with his Fed pause insinuation.
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined sharply again. The NY Fang+ Index declined moderately (due to Tesla), even with the Bostic boost.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What’s the deal with Fed liberals/activists? The dollar maintained its strong rally after Bostic.
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3966.78 Previous session High/Low: 3990.84; 3928.16
Dr. Makary debunks 5 popular COVID myths: Fauci, CDC ‘were wrong on so many things’ First on his list was the myth that natural immunity offered little protection compared to vaccines… Second on Makary’s list was the long-touted efficacy of masks which experts claimed prevented the virus’ transmission… Claims that school closures reduced transmission and that myocarditis from the vaccine was less common than from the virus were next on Makary’s debunked claims list…He added that the risk-benefit of young athletes getting the jab was not positive for young athletes, pointing to a study from JAMA Cardiology finding that people were four to 28 times more likely to get myocarditis from the vaccine than from the virus itself… Makary added experts’ dismissal of the COVID lab leak theory as a “conspiracy theory” as his finaldebunked claim… https://t.co/BHZ9ly8SLD
Kids in England had to wear masks at school because No10 ‘didn’t want an argument’ with Nicola Sturgeon (Scottish leader) https://t.co/iEnU6qTqsr
@amuse:The FBI has known Covid escaped from the Wuhan Coronavirus Lab where Dr. Fauci funded gain of function research for years – why did they hide it?https://t.co/SstpKIBwhP Ex-Navy Intel officer @JackPosobiec: We’ve reached the stage where the regime is throwing Wuhan under the bus for Covid to cover up their own involvement in Wuhan.
Target, Macy’s and Best Buy see consumers cut back, search for discounts Big retailers say consumer demand is starting to buckle from the strain of inflation and customers are making changes in how they shop. Target, Best Buy, Macy’s and other chains say shoppers have pulled back on discretionary goods like clothing, electronics and home improvement. They have shifted their spending to paying for groceries and household basics… https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/02/business/target-macys-best-buy-retail-economy/index.html
Today – The February Employment Report will be released at 8:30 ET on March 11. We erroneously wrote that it would be released today. The Bostic rally on Thursday afternoon relieved the short-term oversold condition for stocks and halted momentum selling. This will embolden bulls today. Equity traders ignored Fed Gov Waller’s assertion that the Fed might need to hike rates even more if data stays hot. The evidence is crystal clear: Equity types overreact to the flimsiest dovish comment from Fed officials and underreact, even ignore, moderately hawkish remarks.
Besides Bostic’s intervention, traders will enthusiastically play the long side due to the Friday rally. It is very noteworthy that bonds did not buy the Bostic summer pause suggestion. ESHs are -7.25 at 20:35 ET.
Expected economic data: Feb S&P Global US Services PMI 50.5; Feb ISM 54.5; Dallas Fed Pres Logan 11:00 ET, Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 12:00 ET, Fed Gov Bowman 15:00 ET
Mother who lost both her sons to fentanyl poisoning says she’s ‘shocked’ at ‘despicable’ Biden for LAUGHING at the claim his policies are to blame for their deaths and demands an apologyRebecca Kiessling’s sons Caleb and Kyler died in 2020 from fentanyl poisoningBiden snidely laughed off Marjorie Taylor Greene’s claim that he ‘killed them’Kiessling is demanding an apology from the President for his ‘shocking’ remarkshttps://t.co/xCEPsNHn5c Biden slammed for laughing while discussing mom who lost two children to fentanyl: ‘Shameful’ “… I’ve read, she, she was very specific recently, saying that a mom, a poor mother who lost two kids to fentanyl, that, that I killed her sons. Well, the interesting thing is that fentanyl they took came during the last administration,” Biden said while laughing…https://t.co/PWilFQ7oW3
Unsanctioned Russian billionaires shopped US land with Hunter Biden, dined with then-VP Joe Two Russian billionaires who went property shopping with Hunter Biden, dined with then-Vice President Joe Biden, and discussed “favors” they might swap have managed to dodge US sanctions over Moscow’s year-old invasion of Ukraine, sources tell The Post. New details of Joe and Hunter Biden’s association with Yelena Baturina and Vladimir Yevtushenkov flesh out tantalizing clues from the first son’s abandoned laptop… “I asked [Yevtushenkov], ‘Why are you doing this?’ on the front end — before I understood that they were going to buy some real estate,” the source told The Post. “‘Why are you even doing this? Why would you be paying the son of the vice president to meet at a public restaurant in New York City?’ “He made it very clear to me that, you know … ‘I think it would be good to have a good relationship with this guy … maybe he can do a favor for us and we can do a favor for him,’” the source continued. “It was a complete quid pro quo that he was going in for.”… https://nypost.com/2023/03/02/unsanctioned-russians-shopped-us-land-with-hunter-biden-dined-with-joe/
@paulsperry_: Federal officials say the real reason Biden hates Trump is he cost him millions by killing the Bidens’ CEFC deal with the Chinese when Trump had his AG Sessions prioritize the investigation & prosecution of Chinese bribery related to President Xi’s “Belt & Road” push
J6 BOMBSHELL: DOJ VIDEO Shows Capitol Police Holding Open “Upper West Terrace Doors” On Jan 6… Over 250 Individuals Allowed to Walk into Capitol by Police Then Later Arrested and Abused https://t.co/qc70mne83w
@DunningWatch: Just before 7 am this morning several law enforcement agencies including FBI, HSI, ATF and the Marshalls, raided a home on74th and George. In Elmwood Park (West of Chicago). Thesuspect got away, drove away through the alleys. Pictures from various community members. https://twitter.com/DunningWatch/status/1631378807612485633?t=QiYVcctoxmlJb0AToYKO8w&s=09
@ShelbyTalcott: Trump is facing a “soft ban” from Fox News, courtesy of Rupert Murdoch: “The understanding is that they’re not to have Trump on for an interview, because the Murdochs have made it pretty clear they want to move on from Trump.” https://t.co/IVab9CGTib
Up until a few decades ago, foreigners could not own US media properties for the obvious reasons. But foreigners bribed Congress, and the rest is sad US history.
Republicans probe EPA on why East Palestine waste sent to Indiana after Dems objected to Michiganhttps://t.co/nzlHxeZ2Yx
Georgia officials confronted with key questions as wealthy Atlanta suburb pushes to secede (From Atlanta) https://t.co/U4vYxM6eRu
@anniefreyshow: The Illinois Legislature wants to establish “Parental Bullying” as a crime. https://t.co/EDb7YZzlaH
Twitter Files #17 Drops – The State Sponsored Blacklists @mtaibbi: 9. The Global Engagement Center is usually listed as a State Department entity. It’s not. Created in Obama’s last year, GEC is an interagency group “within” State, whose initial partnersincluded FBI, DHS, NSA, CIA, DARPA, Special Operations Command (SOCOM), and others… 13.Here GEC asks Twitter to review 499 accounts as “foreign” disinformation, for reasons that include using Signal to communicate and tweeting the hashtag, #IraniansDebateWithBiden. 14. Here are 5500 names GEC told Twitter it believed were “Chinese… accounts” engaged in “state-backed coordinated manipulation.” It takes about negative ten seconds to find non-Chinese figures:… 15. GEC’s “Chinese” list included multiple Western government accounts and at least three CNN employees based abroad. “Not exactly Anderson’s besties, but CNN assets if you will,” quipped Twitter’s Patrick Conlon. “A total crock,” added Trust and Safety chief Yoel Roth… 23.GEC’s game: create an alarmist report, send it to the slower animals in journalism’s herd, and wait as reporters bang on Twitter’s door, demanding to know why this or that “ecosystem” isn’t obliterated. Twitter emails ooze frustration at such queries. UGGG! reads one… 28. The Hamilton 68 dashboard creator, J.M. Berger, was on the GEC payroll until June of 2017, just before the dashboard’s launch. Hamilton claimed the list was “the fruit of more than three years of observation. “Berger “unequivocally” denies working on Hamilton for GEC. 30. The Hamilton 68 dashboard employed digital alchemy to create streams of headlines tying Americans to “foreign” disinformation. The “ecosystem” reports GEC and many “disinformation” laboratories feed reporters are often just subtler versions of the same thing… 39. Just like Hamilton 68, GEC and New Knowledge littered the media landscape with flawed or flat-out wrong news stories. Exacerbating matters, Americans in both cases paid taxes to become the subject of these manipulative operations… 41. Foreign cyber-threats exist, and there are sophisticated ways of detecting them. But GEC and its subcontractors don’t use those, instead deploying junk science that often lumps true bad actors in with organic opinion… https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/just-in-twitter-files-17-drops-the-state-sponsored-blacklists/
The bell has rung on the fraud of the CV19 plandemic. From infection to injection, it was all a bioweapon used to kill and disable an unsuspecting global population. 13 billion doses were shot into people worldwide, and it did not help one single person—period. Woody Harrelson rang the bell that could not be unheard on Saturday Night Live when he said governments and media were bought off by Big Pharma. They locked us down, and the only way to get out was to take their drugs (CV19 Vax) over and over. People are waking up to the deadly and debilitating scam of Covid and the bioweapon/vax used to murder people.
The dead keep piling up from the CV19 bioweapon/vax. Wall Street analyst extraordinaire Ed Dowd says excess death numbers for group life insurance companies are up more than 40% over normal in 2022—and they are trending much higher in 2023. We are just getting started, and this evil debacle is nowhere near the peak. This does not account for the thousands every week who are left completely disabled and can no longer work. The one thing that could help people now is Ivermectin, but the medical community and the government are still trashing it and restricting it. Looks like Justin Bieber’s career is over as he has cancelled the remainder of his world tour because of health problems caused by the CV19 injections. Could Ivermectin help him? Vax injury expert Dr. Pierre Kory says he has helped many with Ivermectin.
We keep hearing that the Fed is going to pivot and start cutting interest rates. The market rallied on Thursday because of some dovish comments by one Fed President. Is anyone listening to the rest of the Fed? Nearly all, including Fed Head Jay Powell, say they are raising rates, and they are not going to stop raising them anytime soon. We have an inflation economy. Can it be brought under control without killing business?
There is much more in the 52-minute newscast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 3.3.23.
Video will play after it is finished processing on Rumble.
Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report, will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. CAF will talk about everything from global digital currency to gold. She will give us her thoughts on the widening bloodbath called the Ukraine war.
️Wagner forces walking around Bakhmut this morning showing an RIA reporter the destroyed bridges.
The European (EEA and non-EEA countries) database of suspected drug reaction reports is EudraVigilance, verified by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), and they are now reporting 50,663 fatalities, and 5,315,063 injuries following injections of EMA-authorized experimental COVID-19 shots as of February 25, 2023. How were so many millions of people worldwide convinced to take an experimental “vaccine” that has now caused millions of deaths and injuries worldwide? This was the largest propaganda campaign in the history of the human race, using FEAR to intimidate people into agreeing to be injected with a bioweapon, or in many cases, coerced. WE MUST NEVER FORGET!Read More…COVID-19 Vaccine Injured Doctors are Finally Starting to Speak UpMarch 2, 2023 7:26 pm
COVID-19 vaccine injured doctors are finally starting to speak up…and they are shocked that the medical establishment abandons them. “I apologize on behalf of my profession for refusing to listen to patients with vax injuries” – Dr.Michael Huang, physician who treated 4000 COVID patients says he’s seen hundreds of COVID-19 vaccine injuries, cancer, pregnancy loss, etc.Read More…
Dr. Tony Fauci and Dr. Kristian Anderson
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