April 4//2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $36.30 TO $2019.80
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $1.11 AT $24.97
work in progress.
Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 2021.85
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 24.99
Bitcoin morning price:, $28,042 UP 0 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $28,177 UP 143 dollars
Platinum price closing $989.95 UP $32.50
Palladium price; closing $1464.70 DOWN $20.90
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2719.00 UP 51.70 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2732.50)
BRITISH GOLD: 1617.58 UP 19.50 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)
EURO GOLD: 1831.65 UP 19.88 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)
COMEX DATA EXCHANGE:
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,983.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/03/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 04/05/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 C GOLDMAN 13
104 C MIZUHO 6
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 17
132 C SG AMERICAS 5
159 C MAREX CAPITAL M 1
323 C HSBC 366
357 C WEDBUSH 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 36
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 95
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 172
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 86
661 C JP MORGAN 309 64
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
690 C ABN AMRO 6 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 27 14
880 C CITIGROUP 44
880 H CITIGROUP 145
905 C ADM 8
TOTAL: 711 711
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 04/03/2023 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 04/03/2023
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:47:26
MONTH TO DATE: 19,889J
PMORGAN stopped 64/ 711 contracts
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT: 711 NOTICES FOR 71100 OZ or 2.211 TONNES
total notices so far: 19,859 contracts for 1,985900 oz (61.863 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 14 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 70,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 212 for 1,060,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $36.30
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////// A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES INTO THE GLD.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.02 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $1,11
WOW!! WHAT CROOKS: AGAIN!!!
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 463.942 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2351 TO 123,738 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.14 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WITH THIS WEEK’S READING AT THE COMEX , WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS , MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.14). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A MONSTER GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 3802 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 6.0 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1375 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.055 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE)+ THE 6.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 7.230 MILLION OZ/ //// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –76 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 days, total 2524 contracts: OR 12.620 MILLION OZ . (1262 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 12.62MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH
APRIL 12.62 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2351 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.14 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1375 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 1.055 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// 80,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 6.0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN APRIL (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 7.230 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 3802 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 14 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 70,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4829 CONTRACTS TO 461,336 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 184 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 4645 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $14.20 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APR. AT 66.892 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A 2200 OZ QUEUE JUMP:(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $14.20 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6570 OI CONTRACTS (20.44 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1925 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 461,336
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6570 CONTRACTS WITH 4645 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1925 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6570 CONTRACTS OR 20.44 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1925 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (4645) //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 6570 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 66.892 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2200 OZ//NEW STANDING 67.723 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 4631 CONTRACTS OR 463100 OZ OR 14.40 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2671 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 14.40 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 14.40/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.05% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 14.40TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2351 CONTRACTS OI TO 123,814 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 1375 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1375 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1375 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2351 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1375 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3726 CONTRACTS.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //18.630 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.14 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.16 PTS OR 0.49% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 134.59 PTS OR 0.60% /The Nikkei closed UP 99.27PTS OR 0.35 % //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.20 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8799 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8804 /Oil UP TO 80.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.77/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4,645 CONTRACTS UP TO 461,152 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.20 ON MONDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1925 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 1925 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1925 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG TOTAL OF 6570 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1925 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4829 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.20 WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (67.713) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 67.713 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $12.20 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6570 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 20.44 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (66.892 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2600 OZ… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $14.20
WE HAD – 184 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6570 CONTRACTS OR 657,000 OZ OR 20.44 TONNES.
Estimated gold comex today 221,465//fair
final gold volumes/yesterday 196,659//POOR
//APRIL 4/ APRIL 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | NIL oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 711 notice(s) 71100OZ 2.211 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1888 contracts 188800 oz 5.872 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 19,889 notices 1,988,900 OZ 61.863 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: NIL oz
customer withdrawals: 0
total withdrawals: NIL oz
in tonnes:0.
Adjustments; 1
Out of JPMorgan: 64,237.698// customer to dealer
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 2599 contracts having LOST 2229 contracts.
We had 2255 contracts filed on Monday, so we gained 26 contracts or 2600 oz (0.0808 tonnes)
May GAINED 28 contracts to stand at 1567
JUNE GAINED 5228 contracts to 396,100
We had 711 notice(s) filed today for 711,00 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 64 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 711 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 64 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (19,889 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (APRIL. 2599 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 711 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,177,700 OZ OR 67.713 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:No of notices filed so far (19,889 x 100 oz+ 2599 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (711)x 100 oz} which equals 2,177,700 oz standing OR 67.713TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 67.713 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,643,341.368 OZ 51.114 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,575,710.866 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,225,837.574 (380.27 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,349,873,292 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,582,496OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 329,16tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 4/2023// THE APRIL 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 668,940.006oz Brinks CNT Delaware JPMorgan . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 600,869.250 oz CNT Delaware |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 14 CONTRACT(S) (70,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 34 contracts (170,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 212 Contracts (1,060,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 2 deposits into the customer account
i) Into CNT 599,953.300 oz
ii) Into Delaware: 915.950 o
Total deposits: 600,869.250oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 143,075 million oz/277,556 million =51.53% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 4
i)Out of Brinks 992,100 oz
ii) Out of CNT 51,303,600 oz
iii) out of Delaware 1019.95 oz
iv) Out of JPMorgan 615,624.356 oz
Total withdrawals; 668,940.006 oz
adjustments: 0
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35.486 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 277,586 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 48 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 15 CONTRACT(S. WE HAD 31 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 16 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 80,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 239 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 89,718
JUNE HAD A ZERO GAIN IN CONTRACTS AND REMAINS AT 24
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 14 for 155,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 73,197 good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 73,203 Contracts ( good)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 212 x 5,000 oz = 1,060,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL(48) and the number of notices served upon today 14 X (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2023 contract month: 212 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (48) – number of notices served upon today (12 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL. contract month equates 1.230 million oz +/ EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 6.0 MILLION OZ //new total standing 7.230 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.02 TONNES
APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23
MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES
MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES
MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 930.02 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412
MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ
MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ
MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 463.942 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff: The Fed Flunked It’s Own Stress Test
TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 09:06 PM
In the aftermath of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, many rushed to blame their demise on a lack of regulation. In particular, they focused on the fact that these banks were not required to undergo a Federal Reserve stress test.
Indeed, small and midsize banks are exempt from the stress test requirement. Did that lead to the current banking crisis?
This issue came up recently when Michael Barr was testifying before Congress. He serves as the Fed’s vice chair of supervision. Sen. Joh Kennedy (R-La.) asked him a poignant question.
If you had stress-tested Silicon Valley bank in 2022, it wouldn’t have made any difference, would it?”
Barr claimed he didn’t know the answer.
Kennedy then pointed out that the Fed didn’t test any bank for the problem that took down SVB. “I’ve read your report,” Kennedy said.
You stress-tested these 34 banks for falling GDP, spiking unemployment, and defaults in commercial real estate, isn’t that correct?”
Barr agreed and started to say that “in a typical adverse scenario for banks, we’re testing falling interest rates.”
But as Kennedy pointed out, that’s not our problem today.
The problem is inflation, high interest rates and loss of value in government bonds, isn’t it?
Barr “completely” agreed.
That means, as Kennedy pointed out, the Fed tested for the wrong thing in 2022.
After the round of stress tests, the mainstream media trumpeted them as a big success. As Peter Schiff put it, they told us “we could all sleep soundly knowing that all these banks have passed the Fed’s stress test.”
Nobody bothered to actually look at the assumptions that were in the stress test. I did. I looked at them. And I saw that they were testing for the wrong thing.”
I warned on Twitter precisely about what the #Fed failed to test for almost three years ago. So instead of relying on the Fed all #Congress or investors had to do was follow me on Twitter and nothing that happend to #SVB or #SignatureBank would have come as a surprise. https://t.co/cRpItjZEJf— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 28, 2023
The original tweet was in June 2019.
That’s it. I nailed this three years ago. The idiots at the Fed, and these guys are supposed to be the smart ones, but they were too dumb to see what I tweeted about three years ago. I didn’t tweet about it because I was so smart. It’s just they were that dumb to have missed something so obvious.”
End
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards/John Rubino
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Traders bet Fed won’t raise rates further as job market cools
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-04-04 14:01Section: Daily Dispatches
By Lindsay Dunsmuir and Ann Saphir
Reuters
Tuesday, April 4, 2023
A key gauge of labor market tightness that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has cited throughout the central bank’s aggressive interest-rate hike campaign dropped to its lowest level since late 2021, a sign that a long-awaited cooling is underway and easing concerns borrowing costs will have to move much higher to bring down inflation.
Following the release of the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, investors upped their bets to a roughly 60% probability of no move following the May 2 to 3 meeting, compared to about a 43% chance the day before, based on pricing of interest-rate futures. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
JPMorganChase’s domination of monetary metals derivatives isn’t so puzzling
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-04-03 11:33Section: Daily Dispatches
11:36a ET Monday, April 3, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Today at Wall Street on Parade, Pam and Russ Martens note that JPMorganChase Bank holds 53% of all the monetary metals derivatives contracts in the U.S. banking system, through the bank and some of its traders have been criminally charged with rigging the monetary metals markets.
The Martenses write: “It is hard to understate the regulatory failure of allowing JPMorgan Chase to continue to have this outsized presence in the precious metals derivatives market.”
Well, yes and no. For it’s not hard to understand the regulatory failure. It is almost certainly a matter of law — a matter of JPMorganChase’s operating as the agent of the U.S. government in surreptitiously controlling gold and silver prices to protect the value of the U.S. dollar and U.S. government bonds.
This rigging is completely legal, since the U.S. government is authorized by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 and related legislation to intervene in and manipulate any market in the world.
The Martenses long have done tremendous investigative reporting about corruption and unfairness in the financial system. So maybe they won’t resent a suggestion for a little more such reporting.
That is, how about pressing the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission as to whether it has jurisdiction over manipulative futures trading undertaken by or at the behest of the U.S. government?
That question has been put to the CFTC by both GATA and U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, and the commission has refused to answer:
http://www.gata.org/node/19917
http://www.gata.org/node/20089
Of course that refusal is almost as good as an admission that JPMorganChase rigs markets for the U.S. government, but not quite.
Twenty-two years ago in U.S. District Court in Boston, seeking dismissal of GATA’s lawsuit accusing the U.S. government, JPMorganChase, other bullion banks, and the Bank for International Settlements of surreptitiously rigging the gold market, an assistant U.S. attorney told the court that the government had the power to do exactly what the lawsuit complained of:
The assistant U.S. attorney did not admit that the government was doing what the lawsuit complained of, but the government’s claiming the power should have provoked a little journalistic curiosity. It still should. Of course no such curiosity has yet been demonstrated by mainstream financial news organizations.
So if you want to know why the government lets JPMorganChase get away with so much of what seems like criminality, it’s because in certain circumstances JPMorganChase is the government and the government is JPMorganChase, and while what they do together may be immoral and concealed, it’s perfectly legal — just as the biggest scandals usually are.
Today’s analysis at Wall Street on Parade is headlined “After Being Criminally Charged for Rigging Precious Metals, JPMorgan Chase Controls 53% of All Precious Metals Contracts Held by Banks” and it can be found here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
JPrecious Metals – JPM
a special thank you to Kevin W. for providing this important article for us:
Very nice article on OOC Derivatives from Wall St. On Parade on JPM or should I say NY Fed or BIS.
The Chinese, Russians, BRICs+, GCO countries have the NY Fed and the banks that own them in check. This is the only nuclear strike that worries the BIS and FED.
Keeping in mind that how corrupt JPM and all the banks are and their bought and paid for regulators is it any wonder that the chart below has never been updated for the years prior to January 1, 2022 when gold was taken out of the category “FX and Gold” and placed in its own category with the white precious metals? I mean why not back date the data. Perhaps they don’t have it or don’t want to or better yet cyber-attack like at CFTC.
And we are supposed to trust these banks and regulators with a CBDC.
One things is for sure that if you can believe that Precious Metals (gold and silver) derivatives value had declined $113 billion from Q4 2021 – Q4 2022, all the while gold had a 15% rise in Q1 2022 that obviously sucked in longs of traders all the while the banks and their holding companies went short, then a 20% decline ensued in Q2 and Q3 of 2022 all the while the banks covered some $97B or 25% of their outstanding precious metal contracts. But in Q4 2022 gold turned around and end 10% higher than Q3 and as can be seen below the banks could only exit a measly $13B in precious metal shorts.
So now Q1 2023 just ended in a new all-time high quarterly close for gold. And albeit much smaller than OTC, Comex O.I. including options grew 17% from Q4 2022. Meaning the banks probably are back up to around $450B in Notional Precious Metal Shorts.
With bank runs and bankruptcy and a credit crunch on the way, these banks are in for some huge losses on their precious metal contracts beyond what they experienced in Q1 2023 or any other time in history.
“One area that particularly stands out in the current OCC report is data showing JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. held $200.12 billion in precious metals derivative contracts at its federally-insured bank as of December 31, 2022, versus a total of $378.12 billion for all banks in the U.S. holding derivatives. That’s one bank holding 53 percent of all precious metals contracts in the U.S. banking system. (See Table 21 on page 26 of the OCC report.)”
Quarterly Derivatives Report: Fourth Quarter 2022
Table 21: Notional Amounts of Derivative Contracts by Contract Type and Maturity (Precious Metals)
Total All Commercial Banks, SAs & TCs With Derivatives – $378.117 billion (< 1 year $352.124 billion)
Quarterly Derivatives Report: Third Quarter 2022
Table 21: Notional Amounts of Derivative Contracts by Contract Type and Maturity (Precious Metals)
Total All Commercial Banks, SAs & TCs With Derivatives – $394.22 billion (< 1 year $371.620 billion)
Quarterly Derivatives Report: Second Quarter 2022
Table 21: Notional Amounts of Derivative Contracts by Contract Type and Maturity (Precious Metals)
Total All Commercial Banks, SAs & TCs With Derivatives – $440.55 billion (< 1 year $413.250 billion)
Quarterly Derivatives Report: First Quarter 2022
Figure 18: Notional Amounts of Precious Metal Contracts by Maturity
Total All Commercial Banks, SAs & TCs With Derivatives – $491.70 billion (< 1 year $463.17 billion)
Note: Beginning January 1, 2022, the largest banks are required to calculate their derivative exposure amount for regulatory capital purposes using the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk
(SA-CCR). Under SA-CCR gold derivatives are considered precious metals derivative contracts rather than an exchange rate derivative contract resulting in an increase in reported precious metals
derivative contracts compared to prior quarters. Refer to the call report instructions and OCC Bulletin 2020-7, “Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk: Final Rule,” for additional information
on the SA-CCR exposure calculation.
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
END
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8799
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8804
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.16 PTS OR 0.49%
HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 134.59 PTS OR 0.66%
2. Nikkei closed UP 99.27 PTS OR 0.35%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.30 EURO RISES TO 1.0948 UP 42 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.407 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 131.63 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2530 ***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4,107*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.284…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.175
3j Gold at $1985.50 silver at: 23.98 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 78/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.57//
3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 131.63 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .407% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9059 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9918 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.448 UP 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.602 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8727 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.22…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 1 BASIS PTS AT 3.4482
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
S&P Futures Extend Gains For A Fifth Day, Near 8-Month High
TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 03:12 PM
US futures extended gains for a 5th straight day as investors weighed the outlook for the Fed’s rate hiking path following weak US manufacturing data against inflation concerns from OPEC+’s plan to cut oil output to assess the path of interest rate increases, and after the Australian central bank officially paused its rate hike campaign overnight when it kept its rate unchanged at 3.6%. S&P 500 contracts rose 0.3% on Tuesday as 7:30 am ET after the underlying benchmark reached its highest level since mid-February on Monday. Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.6% higher, extending their bull market 20% rally while a gauge of volatility held near this year’s lows helping a benchmark for world stocks advance for a seventh day, its longest streak since Jan. 16. Europe’s Estoxx50 advanced 0.8% as Asia dipped; the US dollar reversed an overnight drop and traded modestly green while TSY yields rose, pushing the rate on the 10Y to 3.46%. Oil built on the largest gain in a year after OPEC+ set out to punish short sellers with a surprise production cut; WTI was near $81 a barrel after closing more than 6% higher on Monday
In premarket trading, Virgin Orbit Holdings fell 24% extending its nearly 90% slump this year, as the satellite launch firm tied to British billionaire Richard Branson filed for bankruptcy. Tesla rose 1% in early New York trading after reporting increased deliveries in China that pain a more positive picture of the demand for electric vehicles in the world’s second-biggest economy and the strength of its reopening from Covid controls. The higher sales follows Tesla’s price cuts. In the meme-stock universe, AMC Entertainment fell 28% in premarket after it entered into a binding settlement term sheet with named plaintiffs in its stock conversion lawsuit. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
- Boeing Co. shares are down 0.9% after Northcoast Research downgraded the planemaker to sell from neutral.
- Butterfly Network jumps 23% after the device maker received FDA clearance for a tool to aid assessment of abnormal lung conditions. Analysts say the update shows that the company can add value to its device and will continue to improve it.
- Etsy rises 3% after it was upgraded to overweight at Piper Sandler with the brokerage saying that the online marketplace operator should see a re-acceleration of active buyer growth over the medium term, which can support continued share gains.
- Multi Ways Holdings rises 17% after the Singapore-based construction company priced its $18 million initial public offering at $2.50 per share.
- Oncternal Therapeutics Inc. plunges 60% after the clinical-stage biopharmaceutical firm said it was closing two studies in a move that will extend its cash runway, prompting multiple analysts to downgrade their recommendations on the stock.
- Stem falls as much as 6.6% after the renewable energy storage equipment maker is downgraded to underperform from neutral as BofA, with the broker saying that it lacks confidence in the firm in the medium term.
- Watch Ascendis Pharma after it was downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley on increased regulatory uncertainty, following an FDA setback for the Copenhagen- headquartered drugmaker’s TransCon PTH.
- NCino was cut to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley, with the brokerage saying it sees challenging end-market dynamics weighing on first-half 2024 bookings performance and 2025 full- year results for the cloud banking system operator.
- KeyBanc Capital Markets reshuffles US cable and wireless ratings, upgrading WideOpenWest (WOW US) and ComCast , and downgrading Charter Communications (CHTR US). The broker says the convergence between wireless and broadband is becoming “destructive to all,” but near-term dynamics favor cable, adding he likes inexpensive, lower leveraged names.
A bigger-than-expected contraction in US factory activity is tempering inflation worries as the Fed continues its policy-tightening campaign, with markets pricing one more interest-rate hike. While stocks are sharply higher on the year, the market recovery this year has been uneven, driven largely by a handful of long-duration outperformers such as the tech giants Nvidia, Meta and Tesla.
“It is this skew along with rising uncertainty about the economic outlook that is making it so tricky to call which way markets are likely to break next,” said Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC Markets in London.
Traders are overcoming their initial bearish reaction to the oil cartel’s plan and are now betting that the impact of higher crude prices on economic recovery won’t allow the Federal Reserve to speed up the pace of interest-rate hikes. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s pause in its tightening cycle as well as a decline in European consumers’ inflation expectations have emboldened markets to forercast more than 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts later this year. In the latest news on the inflation front, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said on Monday that US inflation has started easing but price pressures could keep emanating from a tight labor market, the war in Ukraine and the reopening of China.
“What’s backing up markets has a lot to do with the good news concerning inflation,” said Frederic Rollin, a senior investment adviser at Pictet Asset Management Ltd. in Paris. “This good news means that central banks have more flexibility to make a pause or to soften.”
Meanwhile, others joined our call for higher risk prices on the back entirely of technicals: Citi strategist said that about $20 billion of new long positions in the S&P 500 were added over the past week, with positioning turning clearly bullish. On the other end, JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic warned that the risk-on mood is likely to falter, with headwinds from bank turbulence, an oil shock and slowing growth poised to send stocks back toward their 2022 lows.
“The Fed indicated no intention to cut interest rates this year, yet risk assets are exhibiting an unprecedented rally, with European stocks trading near all-time highs and US stocks recovering recent losses,” Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients Monday. “We expect a reversal in risk sentiment and the market retesting last year’s low over the coming months” echoing the exact same warning he has been repeating for months even as stocks are about to hit an 8 month high.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded at the highest level since March 9 led by the insurance, real estate and auto sectors as the banking subgroup led by BNP Paribas SA contributed 22% of the gauge’s increase. Glencore Plc rose amid a recovery in copper prices. Investec Plc increased 3.6% after Rathbones Group Plc agreed to buy the company’s UK wealth management business at a deal value of £839 million ($1.05 billion). Here are the most notable movers:
- Virgin Money rises as much as 5.4% after being raised to outperform from market perform at KBW, with the broker saying the UK’s lenders shares are “far too cheap”
- L’Oreal shares rise as much as 1.1% after the cosmetics manufacturer agreed to acquire the high-end Aesop brand from Brazil’s Natura &Co
- Glencore gains as much as 3.4%, erasing Monday’s drop that followed news it made a bid for metals and coal firm Teck, which the miner is still pursuing
- Adevinta rises as much as 8.4% after Citi upgrades the Norwegian firm to buy in note citing support from factors including data on autos classified spending
- Richter climbs as much as 3.1% after the Hungarian pharmaceutical company’s board decided to start a share buyback program of as much as 40 billion forint
- Rathbones shares rise as much as 3.8% after investment company agreed to buy Investec Plc’s UK wealth and investment unit in an all-share deal described by RBC as “ambitious”
- Petrofac shares drop as much as 7.5% after Jefferies downgrades the energy services company to hold from buy and cut the price target to a Street low
- Pennon falls as much as 4% after the UK water company was cut to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley, which says it struggles to see catalysts for a re-rating
- Azelis falls as much as 6.2% after an offering of 7m shares by holder PSP Investments Holding Europe was priced at €21.75 apiece, representing ~7.5% discount to last close
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slipped, on course for their first drop in six sessions, as Chinese tech names declined and investors parsed weak US factory data and inflation risks from a surge in oil prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost as much as 0.4%, dragged down by Alibaba and Meituan. Hong Kong’s benchmark gauge ended its own five-day winning streak on profit-taking ahead of a holiday. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.6%, weighed down by Chinese electric-vehicle makers. Australian stocks erased earlier losses after the central bank decided to pause its nearly yearlong tightening cycle. India and Taiwan markets are closed for holidays. Investors weighed the implications of unexpectedly weak US factory data and a surprise output cut by OPEC+ on the Fed’s rate-hike path. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said an increase in oil prices could challenge the central bank’s job of lowering inflation. Still, many strategists and fund managers remained positive on Asia’s stock market outlook. “While there are concerns all the uncertainty will hit exports to the US or Europe, the impact on Asia’s profits should be limited” because demand for its products come mostly from within the region, HSBC strategists including Herald van der Linde said in a report. They moved Indonesia to overweight from neutral while reducing Hong Kong to neutral from overweight. “Still, we acknowledge 2023 will likely be marked by bouts of volatility as financial stress ebbs and flows.”
Japanese equities advanced for the sixth time in seven sessions, boosted by gains in bank and automaker stocks. The Topix rose 0.3% to close at 2,022.76, while the Nikkei advanced 0.4% to 28,287.42. Nintendo contributed the most to the Topix gain, climbing 4.6% as Jefferies maintained its buy rating on the stock. Out of 2,160 stocks in the Topix, 1,003 rose and 1,036 fell, while 121 were unchanged
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.2% to close at 7,236.00, after the RBA paused its almost yearlong tightening cycle on Tuesday. The benchmark extended gains for a seventh day, the longest winning streak in over a year. The Reserve Bank kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, while also making clear the board stands ready to resume raising borrowing costs should the economy require it. The result reinforces the RBA’s status as an international outlier, adopting a more dovish approach than the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
In FX, the dollar reversed earlier losses and was trading modestly in the green. The AUD/USD declined 0.5% to 0.6754 after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 3.6%, as expected by about two-thirds of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The pound rose to its highest level against the greenback since June, eclipsing a high touched in January, amid broad-based dollar weakness; GBP/USD +0.7% to 1.2502
In rates, treasuries drifted lower, paring a portion of Monday’s post-ISM gains, led by deeper losses in core euro-zone rates. Stocks are extending recent rally while European debt sales also weigh. Treasury losses were led by belly of the curve with yields cheaper by at least 4bp, lifting 2s5s30s fly by 3bp into early US session; Two-year Treasury yields rose 3bps to 3.99%; 10-year yield around 3.46%, cheaper by 4bp on the day with bunds and gilts lagging by 2bp and 4bp in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate includes World Bank 5Y, IADB 10Y and KfW 3Y; four firms priced $3.55b Monday, with at least two FIG issuers standing down and likely to look again Tuesday. US economic data slate includes February JOLTS job openings and factory orders at 10am New York time along with three scheduled Fed speakers.
In commodities, oil built on the largest gain in a year after OPEC+ set out to punish short sellers with a surprise production cut that tightened the global market and widened key timespreads. Short sellers who had expected the group to hold its production levels rushed to cover their positions, pushing both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures by 0.6% each; WTI was near $81 a barrel after closing more than 6% higher on Monday. The surprise reduction wrong-footed the market, and prompted many banks to raise price forecasts, although some bears remain. The gap between the nearest two December contracts for Brent rose to $5.72 a barrel in backwardation — a bullish pattern — from $3.80 on Friday. Copper edged higher, while zinc and aluminum extended Monday’s declines. Metals trading was mixed as investors weighed weaker factory data and the impact of OPEC+’s cut to oil supplies. Spot gold is little changed around $1,983.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rise as Dogecoin extended its gains after Twitter users noticed their home buttons changed into the dog meme after which the cryptocurrency is named. Bitcoin also rose on Tuesday.
Looking to the day ahead, we have a number of key data releases from the US including the February JOLTS report and factory orders. In Europe, the Eurozone February PPI will be out today, and in Canada data for February building permits. Finally, we will hear from the Fed’s Mester, and the BoE’s Tenreyro and Pill will speak.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,154.75
- MXAP down 0.2% to 162.52
- MXAPJ down 0.3% to 523.10
- Nikkei up 0.4% to 28,287.42
- Topix up 0.3% to 2,022.76
- Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 20,274.59
- Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,312.56
- Sensex up 0.2% to 59,106.44
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,236.02
- Kospi up 0.3% to 2,480.51
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 459.57
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.30%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.0918
- Brent Futures up 0.6% to $85.45/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,980.76
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.13% to 101.96
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- Australia’s central bank paused its almost yearlong tightening cycle, highlighting policy lags and a “substantial” slowdown in household spending while keeping the door open to further interest-rate increases. BBG
- The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has “probably done enough” to tackle inflation, the country’s finance secretary said on Tuesday, in comments that may add weight to expectations the central bank’s policy tightening cycle is nearing an end. RTRS
- Russia is heavily fortifying Crimea, a sign Moscow feels it will be forced to defend the peninsula as Ukraine prepares for a spring offensive. Washington Post
- Eurozone inflation expectations fall further according to the latest ECB survey (expectations for inflation over the next 12 months fell from +4.9% to +4.6% and over the next 3 years from +2.5% to +2.4%). ECB
- Yellen says the US regional bank situation is “stabilizing” (“outflows from smaller and medium-sized banks are diminishing and matters are stabilizing”). BBG
- Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann apologized to shareholders at the firm’s final AGM for failing to stem a loss of trust and effect a turnaround in time. He said those at the helm, including him, were responsible, but in the end the bank “could not be saved.” A “deeply saddened” Ulrich Koerner said a collapse would have been catastrophic. It’s still unclear which of the failed bank’s top executives will survive the takeover. BBG
- Donald Trump will surrender to law enforcement officers in lower Manhattan this afternoon to be booked and then appear in state court over charges of hush money payments. The judge presiding over the case barred the use of broadcast recording equipment during the hearing. BBG
- Richard Branson’s Virgin Orbit has filed for bankruptcy, a few days after the satellite-launch venture cut the bulk of its workforce and said it wasn’t able to secure sufficient funding. WSJ
- Manhattan residential real estate sales slump 38% Y/Y in Q1, an acceleration from the 29% drop in Q4. CNBC
- The Swedish krona’s unrelenting weakness has alerted traders to the risk that the central bank could intervene directly in currency markets for the first time in more than two decades
- China’s yuan has replaced the US dollar as the most traded currency in Russia, a year after the invasion of Ukraine led to a slew of Western sanctions against Moscow
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly positive but with gains limited following the indecisive mood stateside amid higher oil prices and weak ISM data, while participants in the region also turned their focus to the central bank updates. ASX 200 eventually eked mild gains after the RBA paused on rates but kept the door open for future hikes. Nikkei 225 gained but with upside capped in the absence of pertinent macro drivers and key data from Japan. KOSPI was underpinned by softer inflation as March CPI Y/Y decelerated to its slowest pace in a year. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed ahead of tomorrow’s holiday closures across the Greater China region for Tomb Sweeping Day and following another substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC, with underperformance seen in Hong Kong amid notable weakness in tech stocks. Interbank market dealers’ association has conducted self-regulatory investigations on ICBC (601398 CH); pricing of several issues of debt financing instruments underwritten by ICBC seriously deviated from reasonable market levels.
Top Asian News
- China’s Vice Commerce Minister met with Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Deputy Secretary General in Beijing on Monday and the Chinese side said the countries should expand cooperation in energy and others, while China hopes Australia will objectively and fairly handle such cases regarding the tightening review of Chinese enterprises’ investment and operations in Australia.
- Chinese Consulate in Los Angeles spokesperson said China firmly opposes the Taiwan leader’s transit in the US and no matter what capacity House Speaker McCarthy meets with President Tsai, it is another serious violation of the One-China principle and the meeting is not conducive to regional peace, security and stability, according to Reuters.
- Global Times’s Hu Xijin stated that mainland China will “definitely react” when House Speaker McCarthy meets Taiwanese President Tsai and Taiwan will “lose much more than what they can gain from this meeting”.
- Asian Development Bank raised Developing Asia’s 2023 growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.6% and sees Developing Asia’s 2024 growth at 4.8%, while it raised China’s 2023 growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.3% and sees China’s 2024 growth at 4.5%, according to Reuters.
- RBA kept the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 3.60%, as expected, while the Board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed and remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that. Furthermore, the Board took the decision to hold interest rates steady this month to provide additional time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook.
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, as the complex picks up to fresh highs most recently after a relatively contained European morning. Specific updates/drivers have been sparse ahead of the US docket; Stateside, futures are marginally firmer after initially languishing somewhat. In Europe, sectors are bolstered given the above action but again individual movers are light in limited newsflow.
Top European News
- BoE’s Tenreyro (Dove) says she thinks a looser stance is needed to meet the inflation target as the Bank Rate moves closer to restrictive; a looser stance can be achieved by either lowering the rate today or through a lower rate in the future. She judges inflation as likely to fall below target. Expects lower price inertia from second-round effects via wage growth, given a lower rate of headline inflation.
- ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Feb): Inflation Expectations: 4.6% 12-months ahead (Jan 4.9%), 3yr ahead 2.4% (Jan 2.5%)
- Several people were reportedly injured after a passenger train and cargo train collided in the southern Netherlands, according to ANP News.
FX
- GBP leads the G10 pack and has incrementally surpassed 1.25 from a 1.2396 base, with the move seemingly sparked by the triggering of stops.
- Action which weighs on the DXY and has sent EUR/GBP spiralling lower; though, the single currency has managed to make headway vs USD to a 1.0937 peak.
- Specifically, the DXY is at the lower-end of a 101.78-102.27 range and below Monday’s 101.96 trough ahead of February data and a trio of Fed speak with specific fundamentals light in European hours.
- AUD is the current laggard as the RBA kept the Cash Rate Target at 3.60% and despite the intial downside being stemmed by the board expecting some further tightening may be needed; currently, AUD/USD is holding just above 0.6750 in 0.6736-0.6793 boundaries.
- In close proximity is the JPY though action has been comparably more steady as USD/JPY encountered resistance at the 133.00/133.03 psychological mark and 50-DMA respectively as touted APAC demand waned alongside a pick up in global yields.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8699 vs exp. 6.8724 (prev. 6.8805)
- SNB’s Schlegel said they will continue to raise interest rates if necessary with current rates not particularly high and are no danger to financial stability. Schlegel also stated they will do everything they can to get inflation down to their target range and the central bank will continue market intervention and sell forex if necessary, according to Reuters.
Fixed Income
- Core benchmarks are pressured, despite the Bund initially nearing Monday’s best, with concession perhaps factoring initially ahead of Central Bank speak from the BoE and Fed.
- Specifically, Bunds and Gilts have seemingly found a base near their 135.81 and 103.63 lows post-supply with respective 2.30% and 3.50% 10yr yield figures proving sticky.
- Stateside, the action is directionally in-fitting though the magnitude is more modest and firmly within familiar levels with voters Cook and Mester due and intersected by non-voter Collins.
Commodities
- Crude remains underpinned by the OPEC+ announcement after settling higher by circa. USD 5/bbl on Monday; as above, catalysts are light aside from reaction to the output cut and geopolitics.
- Specifically, WTI and Brent are holding around USD 81/bbl and USD 85.50/bbl respectively.
- Spot gold is essentially unchanged in a tight USD 10/oz range, though is at the top-end of this given the USD’s negative bias; base metals are similarly mixed/indecisive.
- US President Biden said it is not as bad as you think regarding the OPEC+ oil output cut, according to Reuters.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the OPEC+ production cut is a very unconstructive act and clearly not positive for global growth, while she added that lower gasoline prices have helped with holding down inflation and the OPEC+ move will not help. Yellen also stated the OPEC+ move adds to the uncertainty and burdens on consumers at a time when inflation is already high and she does not see OPEC+ as having an impact on the appropriate level of the Western price cap on Russian crude, according to Reuters.
- Iraq Federal Gov’t (Baghdad) and Kurdistan Regional Gov’t (Erbil) are to announce a final deal to resume oil exports, via Reuters citing sources; Iraq’s northern oil exports are expected to recommence on Tuesday.
- Shanghai Futures Exchange lowers margin requirements and trading limits for copper, aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel and stainless steel; effective April 6th.
Geopolitics
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the West is trying to put a wedge between Russia and China’s friendship, while he added that Moscow and Beijing are ready to stand shoulder to shoulder to defend each other’s interests. Lavrov also commented that the EU has “lost” Russia and that Moscow will deal with Europe in a tough fashion if need be, according to Reuters.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said “We are ready to make contacts with the West to improve the situation in Europe and reduce nuclear risks but on an equal basis and with the need to take Russia’s interests into account”, according to Al Jazzera.
- Belarus announces the start of training its soldiers on the use of tactical nuclear munitions in Russia, Al Arabiya reports; Russia’s Defence Minister says some Belarusian jets are now capable of carrying nuclear warheads, according to Ria; Finland’s NATO accession creates the risk of significant expansion of conflict
- US Central Command forces conducted a unilateral strike in Syria killing an ISIS senior leader responsible for planning attacks into Europe, according to Reuters.
- EU Foreign Minister Borrell will travel to China next week.
US Event Calendar
- 10:00: Feb. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 10.5m, prior 10.8m
- 10:00: Feb. Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.0%, prior -1.0%
- Durables Less Transportation, est. 0%, prior 0%
- 10:00: Feb. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.2%
- Feb. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0%
- 10:00: Feb. Factory Orders, est. -0.5%, prior -1.6%
- Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0%, prior 1.2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
April has started with a couple of surprises, the first was the OPEC+ cut we discussed yesterday and then the US March ISM manufacturing index, a timely gauge of economic activity, slowed further than expected to 46.3 (vs 47.5 estimated), sinking to its lowest levels since May 2020 when Covid shutdowns were rampant. US 10yr Treasuries initially started the day lower, due to higher oil prices weighing on inflation expectations, however the negative data release caused yields to quickly reverse course and end the day down -5.6bps to 3.411%. US equity markets initially fell on the weak data as well, however an afternoon rally saw the S&P 500 finish near the highs of the day (+0.37%).
The ISM manufacturing readings have been steadily weakening over the last few months, but has now hit its weakest level in 3 years. There are only four instances where the ISM manufacturing reading was this low without a recession in the following 12-18 months – the early 1950s, 1967, the mid 1990s and right after the 2000s recession. Looking a little closer into the details of the print, employment was at 46.9, its lowest since July 2020, and the new orders component missed expectations badly and erased roughly half of its rise over the prior month to come in at 44.3 (vs 47.5 expected). The one good note in the data was that prices paid did soften, falling from 51.3 to 49.2 (vs 51.1 expected). We should also note that the commentary in the report was not necessarily as dire as the numbers might suggest, thus it will be interesting to see how the tone shifts in upcoming reports and as we enter Q1 earnings season in a couple of weeks.
With the softer than expected data revealing a business investment squeeze as lending standards tighten, 10yr US Treasury yields erased their earlier +7.5bp increase overnight to the news of potentially higher oil prices to end -5.6bps lower at 3.4114%. This morning in Asia, 10yr yields are fairly stable as we go to press. The more interest-rate sensitive 2yr US yields fell -6.2bps to 3.96%. Bunds curves bull flattened yesterday following the US data. 10yr German bund yields also retraced an early pickup to fall back -3.9bps to 2.255%, whilst 2yr yields dropped just -0.8bps to 2.67%.
This reversal in US rate markets occurred even as the Fed’s Bullard highlighted that the continued strength in the US labour market “gives (the) Fed headroom to fight inflation.” Bullard also commented on OPEC+’s surprise decision on Sunday to cut output by 1.16 million barrels per day, emphasising that a resulting increase in oil prices could potentially make the Fed’s challenge of lowering inflation a lot more difficult. Bullard said that market was putting “too much probability” on the banking crisis worsening and dramatically slowing the economy when discussing the expected path of the fed policy rate. After the US close Federal Reserve Governor Cook also highlighted the continued tightness in the labour market saying, “we are still going to see inflation from that but we’ve seen wage gains moderating quite a bit.” She also acknowledged that there is uncertainty about how much the recent banking concerns will slow the economy but said that the Fed is “focused on high inflation because the job market seems to be doing okay.”
The Fed rate expected for the next meeting was largely flat against this backdrop, climbing a modest +1.6bps to 4.973% with a 63% chance priced in for a +25bps hike next month. The expected policy rate through the December meeting is 4.30%, which continues to imply two full -25bps cuts by year-end after reaching a terminal rate next month.
Staying with central banks, the ECB’s Simkus yesterday stated that the ECB was “not there yet” in terms of interest rate increases. However, Simkus emphasised that the “larger part” of the rate-hike path for the central bank has now been covered. Such statements are consistent with the moderate hawks at the ECB changing their tune to become explicitly more open to slowing the pace of rate hikes. Later in the day, the ECB’s Holzmann stated that a 50bps hike was “still on the cards” for the next meeting in May. Holzmann particularly emphasised that if the ECB were to decrease its pace to a 25bps increase, “it’s hard to go back” to 50bps increments if needed. Similar to the US, there was only a modest response to the central bank speakers in the European overnight index swaps market, with the rate priced in for the ECB’s May meeting climbing just +1.3bps to 3.11% – implying a 88% chance of a 25bp hike.
Although fixed income was trading higher off the back of the weak ISM print, the S&P 500 saw a lot of dispersion under the surface despite the index finishing the day up +0.37%. Energy was by far the best performing sector as the higher oil prices buoyed the sector (+4.91%). However outside of energy, other cyclical sectors such as autos (-4.99%), real estate (-0.97%) and transportation (-0.83%) were the largest laggards yesterday. Tesla in particular underperformed, down -6.12%, after announcing just a 4% increase in sales from the previous quarter despite cutting prices of its EVs to stimulate demand. The NASDAQ closed down -0.27%, whilst the STOXX 600 was just slightly worse than unchanged (-0.03%) yesterday.
Asian equity markets are trading between small gains and losses this morning even as US equities closed in the green overnight. As I type, the Nikkei (+0.24%) and the KOSPI (+0.22%) are trading in positive territory while the Chinese equity indices, namely the Hang Seng (-0.93%) and the CSI (-0.12%), are losing ground in early trade. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.02%) is struggling for clear direction ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision, which will come out shortly after we go to print.
Ahead of that, US stock futures are indicating a slightly negative start with the S&P 500 (-0.08%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.22%) futures edging lower.
Early morning data showed that South Korean inflation for March softened to a one-year low of +4.2% y/y, from February’s figure of +4.8% and slightly lower than market expectations of +4.3%, thus easing pressure on the Bank of Korea (BOK) to resume policy tightening with the central bank’s policy meet scheduled on April 11.
Turning back to commodities, WTI and Brent crude contracts finished up +6.28% and +6.47% to hit $80.42/bbl and $84.93/bbl respectively as the news of OPEC+’s cuts were more fully absorbed. Overnight President Biden said the cut is “not going to be as bad as you think” when speaking with reporters, and that the administration would look for ways to ease the burden on consumers. His National Security Council spokesman said earlier in the day that the administration had received advanced warning of the cuts. Gold was up +0.78% yesterday after the soft ISM data, reversing its fall earlier in the session. On the other hand, copper futures fell back -1.20% on the day as growth concerns came to the fore.
We had several other data releases yesterday, including the final revised PMIs from the US and the Eurozone, which came in at 49.2 (vs the preliminary 49.3) and 47.2 (vs the preliminary 47.1) respectively. We also had the flash PMI’s for Italy which marginally beat expectations but fell to 51.1 (vs 51 expected), and Spain at 51.3 (vs 50 expected). Finally, the Swiss March CPI came in at +0.2% (vs +0.4% expected) month-on-month.
Now to the day ahead. We have a number of key data releases from the US including the February JOLTS report and factory orders. In Europe, the Eurozone February PPI will be out today, and in Canada data for February building permits. Finally, we will hear from the Fed’s Mester, and the BoE’s Tenreyro and Pill will speak.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Firmer bias emerges in somewhat limited newsflow, Fed speak looms – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 01:24 PM
- Equities have picked-up most recently after a relatively contained European morning with fresh drivers light
- GBP leads the G10-FX space to the USD’s detriment, while AUD lags post-RBA despite downside being initially capped
- Fixed income is pressured with concession perhaps factoring while the 2.30% and 3.50% yield levels proving sticky
- Crude remains underpinned by the weekend’s OPEC adjustment; focus otherwise on Iraq exports and geopols
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders, JOLTS, Speeches from Fed’s Cook, Collins & Mester and BoE’s Pill.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, as the complex picks up to fresh highs most recently after a relatively contained European morning.
- Specific updates/drivers have been sparse ahead of the US docket; Stateside, futures are marginally firmer after initially languishing somewhat.
- In Europe, sectors are bolstered given the above action but again individual movers are light in limited newsflow.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- GBP leads the G10 pack and has incrementally surpassed 1.25 from a 1.2396 base, with the move seemingly sparked by the triggering of stops.
- Action which weighs on the DXY and has sent EUR/GBP spiralling lower; though, the single currency has managed to make headway vs USD to a 1.0937 peak.
- Specifically, the DXY is at the lower-end of a 101.78-102.27 range and below Monday’s 101.96 trough ahead of February data and a trio of Fed speak with specific fundamentals light in European hours.
- AUD is the current laggard as the RBA kept the Cash Rate Target at 3.60% and despite the intial downside being stemmed by the board expecting some further tightening may be needed; currently, AUD/USD is holding just above 0.6750 in 0.6736-0.6793 boundaries.
- In close proximity is the JPY though action has been comparably more steady as USD/JPY encountered resistance at the 133.00/133.03 psychological mark and 50-DMA respectively as touted APAC demand waned alongside a pick up in global yields.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8699 vs exp. 6.8724 (prev. 6.8805)
- SNB’s Schlegel said they will continue to raise interest rates if necessary with current rates not particularly high and are no danger to financial stability. Schlegel also stated they will do everything they can to get inflation down to their target range and the central bank will continue market intervention and sell forex if necessary, according to Reuters.
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME
- Core benchmarks are pressured, despite the Bund initially nearing Monday’s best, with concession perhaps factoring initially ahead of Central Bank speak from the BoE and Fed.
- Specifically, Bunds and Gilts have seemingly found a base near their 135.81 and 103.63 lows post-supply with respective 2.30% and 3.50% 10yr yield figures proving sticky.
- Stateside, the action is directionally in-fitting though the magnitude is more modest and firmly within familiar levels with voters Cook and Mester due and intersected by non-voter Collins.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- Crude remains underpinned by the OPEC+ announcement after settling higher by circa. USD 5/bbl on Monday; as above, catalysts are light aside from reaction to the output cut and geopolitics.
- Specifically, WTI and Brent are holding around USD 81/bbl and USD 85.50/bbl respectively.
- Spot gold is essentially unchanged in a tight USD 10/oz range, though is at the top-end of this given the USD’s negative bias; base metals are similarly mixed/indecisive.
- US President Biden said it is not as bad as you think regarding the OPEC+ oil output cut, according to Reuters.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the OPEC+ production cut is a very unconstructive act and clearly not positive for global growth, while she added that lower gasoline prices have helped with holding down inflation and the OPEC+ move will not help. Yellen also stated the OPEC+ move adds to the uncertainty and burdens on consumers at a time when inflation is already high and she does not see OPEC+ as having an impact on the appropriate level of the Western price cap on Russian crude, according to Reuters.
- Iraq Federal Gov’t (Baghdad) and Kurdistan Regional Gov’t (Erbil) are to announce a final deal to resume oil exports, via Reuters citing sources; Iraq’s northern oil exports are expected to recommence on Tuesday.
- Shanghai Futures Exchange lowers margin requirements and trading limits for copper, aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel and stainless steel; effective April 6th.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE’s Tenreyro (Dove) says she thinks a looser stance is needed to meet the inflation target as the Bank Rate moves closer to restrictive; a looser stance can be achieved by either lowering the rate today or through a lower rate in the future. She judges inflation as likely to fall below target. Expects lower price inertia from second-round effects via wage growth, given a lower rate of headline inflation.
- ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Feb): Inflation Expectations: 4.6% 12-months ahead (Jan 4.9%), 3yr ahead 2.4% (Jan 2.5%)
- Several people were reportedly injured after a passenger train and cargo train collided in the southern Netherlands, according to ANP News.
DATA RECAP
- German Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Feb) 16.0B vs. Exp. 17.0B (Prev. 16.7B)
- EU Producer Prices YY (Feb) 13.2% vs. Exp. 13.3% (Prev. 15.0%, Rev. 15.1%); MM (Feb) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -2.8%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Cook (voter) said the US has very low unemployment and high inflation so are focused on inflation right now and noted the disinflationary process is happening but they are not there yet, while she stated that the labour market is still tight and still sees inflation from that, according to Reuters.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen said deposit outflows from small and medium-sized banks are diminishing and the actions that they took have certainly helped. Yellen said the US banking situation is stabilising and they are watching it very closely, while they are not willing to allow contagious runs to develop in the US banking system.
- FDIC announced the framework of a marketing process for the approximately USD 60bln loan portfolio retained in receivership following the failure of Signature Bank and expects to begin marketing it in summer, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICS
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the West is trying to put a wedge between Russia and China’s friendship, while he added that Moscow and Beijing are ready to stand shoulder to shoulder to defend each other’s interests. Lavrov also commented that the EU has “lost” Russia and that Moscow will deal with Europe in a tough fashion if need be, according to Reuters.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said “We are ready to make contacts with the West to improve the situation in Europe and reduce nuclear risks but on an equal basis and with the need to take Russia’s interests into account”, according to Al Jazzera.
- Belarus announces the start of training its soldiers on the use of tactical nuclear munitions in Russia, Al Arabiya reports; Russia’s Defence Minister says some Belarusian jets are now capable of carrying nuclear warheads, according to Ria; Finland’s NATO accession creates the risk of significant expansion of conflict
- US Central Command forces conducted a unilateral strike in Syria killing an ISIS senior leader responsible for planning attacks into Europe, according to Reuters.
- EU Foreign Minister Borrell will travel to China next week.
CRYPTO
- South Korean authorities seized over USD 160mln in assets related to the collapse of Terraform Labs.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mostly positive but with gains limited following the indecisive mood stateside amid higher oil prices and weak ISM data, while participants in the region also turned their focus to the central bank updates.
- ASX 200 eventually eked mild gains after the RBA paused on rates but kept the door open for future hikes.
- Nikkei 225 gained but with upside capped in the absence of pertinent macro drivers and key data from Japan.
- KOSPI was underpinned by softer inflation as March CPI Y/Y decelerated to its slowest pace in a year.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed ahead of tomorrow’s holiday closures across the Greater China region for Tomb Sweeping Day and following another substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC, with underperformance seen in Hong Kong amid notable weakness in tech stocks.
- Interbank market dealers’ association has conducted self-regulatory investigations on ICBC (601398 CH); pricing of several issues of debt financing instruments underwritten by ICBC seriously deviated from reasonable market levels.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s Vice Commerce Minister met with Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Deputy Secretary General in Beijing on Monday and the Chinese side said the countries should expand cooperation in energy and others, while China hopes Australia will objectively and fairly handle such cases regarding the tightening review of Chinese enterprises’ investment and operations in Australia.
- Chinese Consulate in Los Angeles spokesperson said China firmly opposes the Taiwan leader’s transit in the US and no matter what capacity House Speaker McCarthy meets with President Tsai, it is another serious violation of the One-China principle and the meeting is not conducive to regional peace, security and stability, according to Reuters.
- Global Times’s Hu Xijin stated that mainland China will “definitely react” when House Speaker McCarthy meets Taiwanese President Tsai and Taiwan will “lose much more than what they can gain from this meeting”.
- Asian Development Bank raised Developing Asia’s 2023 growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.6% and sees Developing Asia’s 2024 growth at 4.8%, while it raised China’s 2023 growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.3% and sees China’s 2024 growth at 4.5%, according to Reuters.
- RBA kept the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 3.60%, as expected, while the Board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed and remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that. Furthermore, the Board took the decision to hold interest rates steady this month to provide additional time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook.
DATA RECAP
- South Korean CPI MM (Mar) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%); YY (Mar) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.8%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.16 PTS OR 0.49% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 134.59 PTS OR 0.60% /The Nikkei closed UP 99.27PTS OR 0.35 % //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.20 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8799 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8804 /Oil UP TO 80.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.77/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
Credit demand is surging in China but it is totally overstating its business recovery
(zerohedge)
China’s Soaring Loan Demand Overstates Its Business Recovery
TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 06:40 AM
By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist
While the US banking turmoil has eased lately, the economic damage from an inevitable tightening in lending may only be starting.
In China, the opposite seems to be happening. The latest central bank survey shows that credit demand surged to the highest in more than a decade. That lending boom, though, may overstate the recovery in business and consumer confidence.
On Monday, the US ISM manufacturing index slumped to the lowest level since May 2020. It may be one of the earliest signs of the knock-on effect from bank failures last month. While the deposit outflows at small banks seem to be stabilizing, the underlying issue is far from being resolved. The yield advantage of money-market funds is likely to force banks to raise rates to compete for deposits. The resulting higher funding costs could cap banks’ willingness and capacity to lend.
In China, a different dynamic is on display. The PBOC’s quarterly survey of bankers released Monday showed loan demand surged to the highest in 11 years.
The survey result is in-line with the actual bank lending data, which show long-term corporate loans are shooting through the roof, thanks to lower borrowing costs. It is in sharp contrast with the deleveraging in the household sector amid housing turmoil.
At first glance, strong long-term borrowing seems to suggest a resurgence of business confidence as entrepreneurs expand factories or invest in new businesses.
But the central bank’s surveys of businesses and households cast doubt on this interpretation. The macroeconomic heat index of entrepreneurs only recovered in the first quarter to a level seen a year ago, with domestic and export orders showing only marginal improvement. The profitability index actually fell to the lowest level since March 2020. On the household side, the survey also shows a modest recovery in consumer confidence.
All in all, business and consumer confidence seems to be on the mend, but it’s far from a full recovery. That suggests at least part of the demand for corporate debt may be companies borrowing new money to refinance existing debt, as opposed to expanding their business.
end
CHINA
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
UBS/
GERMANY
5 RUSSIATUEND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
ISRAEL/SYRIA
END
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Berenson: The Fiercest Vaccine Advocates Are Starting To Admit The Truth About The mRNAs
TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Alex Berenson via ‘Unreported Truths’ Substack,
Even the New York Times can’t hide reality about the mRNA jabs forever.
Last week, the Times published an article headlined, “Should You Get Another Covid Booster?”
The article’s subheadline noted “Britain and Canada have authorized another round of booster shots,” implying the United States has somehow been negligent in not doing so.
And the piece was written by Apoorva Mandavilli, among the worst Covid reporters. So I assumed the article would be filled with the usual nonsense, especially since the first person Mandavilli quoted was Dr. Celine Gounder, who has loudly pushed mRNA jabs.
After Gounder’s husband died of an aortic aneurysm, she lashed out in January at mRNA skeptics (including me) who questioned if the shots might be linked to his death – even though doctors have repeatedly reported cases of post-jab aneurysms.
In her January piece, Gounder even complained Congress’s repeal of the armed forces Covid vaccine mandate “threatens military readiness.” (Nonsense, of course. Frontline soldiers and Marines are young, fit, and healthy, putting them at far higher risk from mRNA-related myocarditis than Covid itself.)
So I was stunned that Gounder offered the most tepid possible recommendation for further mRNA doses to Mandavilli.
Most people should not have boosters, even once a year, she said. She endorsed regular shots only for “immunocompromised people and people in nursing homes.”
The real tell there is “nursing homes.”
In mentioning them, Gounder was not suggesting that everyone over 65 – or even 85 – should get more shots. Nursing homes are effectively hospices for most residents. About one-third of their residents die each year, a 2018 study found; a 2010 study had even grimmer findings, reporting a median survival of five months after admission.
What Gounder was saying that only the very frail – who likely have little risk or benefit from the shots (or, in reality, any medical intervention) – should still receive them regularly.
In contrast, in October, Gounder offered very different advice, recommending boosters for everyone over age 50 “as soon as possible.”
(Celine Gounder sees the light.)
Gounder’s rejection of annual boosters is particularly stunning because she and other public health specialists happily promote annual flu jabs despite their demonstrated uselessness. The theory seems to be that flu shots get old folks out of the house, or boost Walgreen’s profits, or something. Anyway they probably don’t do any harm even if they don’t do any good, so why not?
Yet Gounder is no longer applying the same logic to the mRNAs.
I do not think that annual boosters for everyone makes sense.
Which implies either Covid is now even less dangerous than the flu (possible but unlikely), or the shots are even more useless (which would imply negative efficacy), or else… they’re actually more dangerous than inactivated virus flu jabs.
Which they are.
But Gounder was not the only vaccine advocate quoted in the Times piece. Mandavilli also talked to Dr. Paul Offit. No one will ever confuse Offit with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – he is director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.
In April 2021, Offit had this to say about the mRNA jabs:
Certainly, no one would have predicted that these mRNA vaccines would have worked as well or been as safe as they are… I don’t think you could have devised a vaccine that appears to be more perfect.
Less than two years later, Offit rejected more doses of those “perfect” vaccines.
For everyone. Even the immunocompromised.
But even more stunning than Offit’s rejection were the words he used:
“Given the lack of data, I don’t think it’s fair to say to people, ‘Inject yourself with a biological agent,’” said Dr. Paul Offit.
(Perfection no more…)
Vaccine advocates strenuously avoid this kind of language, for obvious reasons.
Inject yourself with a biological agent? Yeah, I’ll pass.
But the failure of the mRNAs is now so obvious that Offit and his fellow vaccine advocates have no choice but to try to ring-fence it if they want to save other jabs.
* * *
Subscribe to Unreported Truths
END
Trump Indictment Spurs Glenn Beck to Wholeheartedly Support the Former President on Tucker Carlson Tonight
“Donald Trump is not even a person anymore; he is a symbol. He is a symbol of the average, everyday guy that keeps getting screwed every single time.”
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 4 |
The Vigilant Fox puts out a nice substack on this and really raises the issue that the radical insane crazy people just re-elected Trump.
The Vigilant Fox
Watch now (6 min) | Originally Published on DailyClout Radio personality Glenn Beck has been one of President Trump’s most vocal right-of-center critics since he ran for President in 2016 — once having called him an “immoral man who is absent decency or dignity.” But Wednesday, after…
END
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
BOOM! As we watch the Donald beat them at their game, here we have Ron schlonging them! “DeSantis: “They were wrong on lockdowns, they were wrong on masking they were wrong on denying existence of
natural immunity…so my question is, where is the accountability for these people for all the damage that they did to our country?” Nicely put Ron; & what we need is deep jail for them, no freedom!
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 4 |
Michael P Senger @MichaelPSenger
4:30 PM ∙ Apr 2, 202314,699Likes3,522Retweets
END
Scotland: ‘Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland’; look at the updated excel data file I embed below, it shows you not one (zero), that is ‘0’ persons under 19 (let us say ‘kids’) died
who had NO pre-existing conditions; yes, you read that correctly, ALL children who died were very sick in some manner, would have died ABSENT of COVID; same data in US, UK, Sweden, Germany etc.
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 3 |
SOURCE:
How do you like dem there apples? I guess the media does not tell you this data, the putrid fecal, bottom-dweller, low-life, vapid, corrupted, conflicted US and Canadian legacy media, I guess not. Just constantly, ‘it is time to give your child the COVID shot’.
Parents, how many ways do I say it, no healthy child, none, needs these deadly shots, not one! Children bring statistical zero if not zero risk of severe outcome or death from COVID.
end
23-Year-Old Man Permanently Blind from AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Sues
A COVID-19 vaccine injury left a man legally blind – he’s suing everyone involved.
| DR PANDAAPR 4 |
A 23-year-old man in “excellent health” suffered a stroke after receiving an AstraZeneca vaccine – now he’s legally blind.
Jackson Troy Reimer has filed a lawsuit in Canada against not only the vaccine maker AstraZeneca but Verity Pharmaceuticals (manufacturers of COVIDSHIELD), Vail Resorts (his employer), the Vancouver Coastal Health Authority (which administered the vaccine), and the Attorney General of Canada.
The lawsuit alleges that all defendants owed a ‘duty of care’ to represent the actual risks of the COVID-19 vaccine. His employer, who recommended the vaccine, did not provide the warnings associated with the vaccine.
The 23-year-old received the vaccine from the Vancouver Coastal Health Authority – less than a week later the man experienced dizziness, severe headaches and a loss of vision.
The hospital performed a CT scan which showed Reimer experienced an intracerebral hemorrhage also known as a hemorrhagic stroke.
Like most countries that authorized the COVID-19 vaccines, Canada has shielded the manufacturers from liability.
It will be interesting to see what happens from this lawsuit. I doubt the vaccine manufacturers or administrators will be held liable. Perhaps the business has liability but it doesn’t look like Vail Resorts required the vaccination, only recommended it.
If your company recommended or required the COVID-19 vaccine did they provide side effect warnings?VACCINE IMPACT
.SLAY NEWS
The latest reports from Slay News |
| 300,000 Americans Killed by Covid Shots in 2022 AloneAn explosive new report from top U.S. researchers has revealed that a staggering number of Americans were injured, disabled, or killed by Covid shots last year.READ MORE |
| U.S Officials Humiliate Biden, Admit Chinese Spy Balloon Successfully Gathered Intel on Sensitive Military SitesIn another humiliating blow to Democrat President Joe Biden, U.S. officials have admitted that the Chinese spy balloon succeeded in gathering intel on sensitive American military sites as it traveled unchallenged in the skies above the country.READ MORE |
| Psaki Warns Hillary Clinton and Democrats Not to ‘Celebrate’ Trump’s Arraignment TomorrowFormer White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki has warned the Democrats not “celebrate” or “brag” about the indictment of President Donald Trump.READ MORE |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene: Mitt Romney ‘Failed Us’ – ‘Not Even Sure Why He Calls Himself a Republican’Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) went on the CBS show “60 Minutes” with all guns blazing last night.READ MORE |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene Goes on 60 Minutes, Leaves Lesley Stahl Speechless: Democrats ‘Support Grooming Children’Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) sat down for an interview on “60 Minutes” last night and left CBS News correspondent Lesley Stahl speechless numerous times.READ MORE |
| Biden Admin Pushes Forward with Light Bulb BanDemocrat President Joe Biden’s administration is preparing to push forward with a ban on cheaper light bulbs as part of its green agenda.READ MORE |
| Half of East Palestine Train Derailment Investigators Have Fallen IllAlmost half of all the U.S. government investigators deployed to the site of the toxic trail derailment in East Palestine, Ohio have fallen ill, according to reports.READ MORE |
| Biden Nominee Boasted of Plan to Abuse Role to Force Aggressive Climate AgendaOne of Democrat President Joe Biden’s subagency nominees previously boasted that she planned to abuse her role to force through an aggressive climate agenda.READ MORE |
| WEF-Linked Finnish PM Loses Reelection to Conservative OpponentFinland’s “woke” Prime Minister Sanna Marin has been defeated in her reelection bid by her conservative opponent.READ MORE |
| Map Reveals All Prosecutors Installed by George Soros across the CountryAcross America, radical billionaire George Soros has been using his vast resources to install “woke” soft-on-crime prosecutors to do his bidding.READ MORE |
| Texas Man Tracks Down Stolen Truck, Kills Thug Who Stole ItA Texas man has used a tracking device to find his stolen truck before killing the man suspected of stealing it.READ MORE |
| John Rich Blasts ‘Evil’ Madonna over Nashville School Shooting Comments: ‘Instrument for the Devil Himself’Country music star John Rich has blasted Madonna over the pop singer’s twisted messaging about the Nashville school shooting.READ MORE |
| Florida Lawmakers Quietly File Bill Allowing DeSantis to Run for President While Serving as GovernorLawmakers in Florida have quietly filed a state Senate bill that would allow Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president while still serving as governor.READ MORE |
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
OPEC+ Shock Oil Cut May Give G-7 A New Russian Oil Problem
TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 04:37 PM
By Alaric Nightingale, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst
Sunday’s announcement of surprise production cuts by key members of OPEC+ creates a question about where that might leave the G-7’s price cap on Russian oil sales (something ZH first discussed late on Sunday in “Anti-Russia Alliance Splinters As Japan Buys Russian Oil At Price Above Cap; Others To Follow“).
It’s important to remember that the cap is really there to allow Russian oil to flow, not to hinder it. That’s because the threshold was imposed as a means of allowing traders and companies to access key G-7 services, especially insurance, which are otherwise banned. So the higher global oil prices, the greater the theoretical pressure for the cap to guarantee that Russian barrels keep flowing.
The oil price is about where it was when then cap on crude was first imposed in early December. So there’s no obvious need to adjust it right now.
Also, Russia appears to be dumping more crude onto the global market than ever. That will presumably give the G-7 some comfort that its strategy is working. (Incidentally, Russia is supposed to have cut output by 500,000 barrels a day last month, but it’s not showing up in the loadings of tankers at the nation’s ports.)
A trickier issue is if oil prices were to shoot higher. Imagine they reach $100 a barrel, as some suspect is a possibility. Urals is already trading above the $60 price cap.
If that happens, the G-7 will be faced with the quandary of wanting to keep Russian oil flowing while at the same time seeking to constrain Moscow’s revenues.
In other words, it might logically see a need to raise the cap — thereby rewarding Moscow for its part in limiting the global supply of petroleum. Awkward. And any revision to the cap would need EU backing, which could be tough as some have sought lower thresholds.END
.8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA/AUSTRALIA
Australia Central Bank Joins Canada In Hitting “Pause” On Rate Hikes
TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 04:20 PM
First it was the Bank of Canada which in January announced it would pause its rate hike campaign; then overnight the RBA became the second bank to join the bandwagon when it put its year-long hiking campaign on pause after leaving the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at April’s Board meeting, marking the first pause since the RBA starting raising rates in May 2022. Ahead of the meeting, 19/30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a pause, while 11/30 expected a +25bp hike. Financial markets were pricing in just 4bp of hikes, so the decision was mostly priced in.
The attending statement noted the Board decided to keep rates steady to “assess the impact” of increases in rates to date. While reiterating that Australia’s labour market remained “very tight”, the statement also noted that timely data suggested CPI inflation had peaked and that a “substantial slowing” in household spending was occurring.
Looking forward, the statement noted the Board expects further tightening “may well be needed”, a somewhat softer tightening bias compared to last month (“will be needed”).
Here are the main points from the announcement:
- The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at April’s Board meeting, marking the first pause since the RBA starting lifting the cash rate in May 2022. Ahead of the meeting, 19/30 economists survey by Bloomberg expected a pause, while 11/30 (including GS) expected a +25bp hike. Financial markets were pricing ~4bp of hikes. The statement noted the Board “took the decision to hold interest rates steady this month to provide additional time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook.”
- The forward guidance in the final paragraph maintained a tightening bias, but with a softer tone compared to March’s statement. The statement noted the Board expects that “some” further tightening (vs “further tightening” in the March statement) of monetary policy “may well be needed” (vs “will be needed” in March) to ensure that inflation returns to target. The statement also noted the decision to hold rate steady “provides the Board with more time to assess the state of the economy”, “in an environment of considerable uncertainty”. In our view this language keeps the options fairly open for the RBA over the next few months.
- On the global front, the RBA noted the recent banking system problems in the US and Switzerland “have resulted in volatility in financial markets and a reassessment of the outlook for global interest rates”, and “These problems are also expected to lead to tighter financial conditions, which would be an additional headwind for the global economy”. However, the RBA noted “The Australian banking system is strong, well capitalised and highly liquid. It is well placed to provide the credit that the economy needs.”
- On the domestic economy the language was incrementally more dovish around the household sector, noting that there is further evidence that the combination of higher rates, high inflation and falling house prices is “leading to a substantial slowing in household spending”.
- The RBA maintained the language that the labor market “remains very tight” and removed the language “although conditions have eased a little” following the strong February report. On wages, the RBA maintained that “wage growth is still consistent with the inflation target” but with the qualification that “provided that productivity growth picks up” – a hat tip to the current strong growth in nominal unit labor costs.
- On inflation the language was a touch more dovish on net, noting that “a range of information, including the monthly CPI indicator suggests that inflation has peaked”. Interestingly the statement removed the sentence “Services price inflation remains high, with strong demand for some services over the summer” – despite little new information on services inflation over the past month – but continued to note that “rents are increasing at the fastest rate in some years” and added that “the prices of utilities are also rising quickly”.
Commenting on the decision, Goldman writes that from its perspective, “while today’s decision was always a close call, we viewed the pause as revealing a somewhat more dovish reaction function than we had anticipated, particularly given ongoing upside risks to wages growth and inflation in Australia.”
And while there is significant uncertainty around the outlook, Goldman now expects the RBA to remain on hold for several months while it ‘assesses’ the impact of prior tightening – including the roll-off of many fixed rate mortgages over the June quarter – before raising rates in July (+25bp) and August (+25bp) to a terminal rate of 4.1%. By this time the RBA will have a better read on inflation momentum over the June quarter and the Fair Work Commission’s decision on minimum and award wages growth for FY2023/24.
That said, even GS is mindful of the significant uncertainty around the macro outlook, both domestically and globally, and acknowledges that the RBA could remain on hold if downside risks to growth and/or inflation are realised. Alternatively, the RBA could restart hikes as soon as May if the 1Q2023 CPI data (26 April) surprise to the upside.
In response to the pause, Australian stocks rebounded into the green, while the Australian dollar fell 0.9% to 0.6723, below 200-DMA at 0.6750.
Finally, as Bloomberg speculates this morning, with the JOLTS data looming in the US this morning, it “feels like a lower-than-expected result would kindle more serious speculation that the Fed may also be done with its tightening campaign.”
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0948 UP .0042
USA/ YEN 131.63 DOWN 0.690 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2492 UP 0.0072
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3462 UP .0018 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 18 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 16.16 PTS OR 0.49%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 134,59 PTS OR 0.66%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP.0.20% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 134.59 PTS OR 0.066%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.16 PTS OR 0.49%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.20%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 99.27 PTS OR 0.35%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1982.00
silver:$23.98
USA dollar index earlyTUESDAY morning: 101.30 DOWN 49 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY’s close.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.097% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.407% UP 3 AND 0 //100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.284/ UP 2in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.107 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2530 UP 4 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0948 UP 0.0042 or 42 basis points
USA/Japan: 131.63 DOWN 0.690 OR YEN UP 69 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2492 UP.0072 OR 72 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0018 OR 18 BASIS pts to 1.3452
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN)..(6.8799
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8806
TURKISH LIRA: 19.22 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.407…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from THURSDAY at 3.448% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.602 DOWN 4 in basis pt
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8727 % DOWN 11 in basis points.
closing USA dollar index, 101.30 DOWN 49 in basis points ON THE DAY/1.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 38.48 PTS OR 0.50%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 22.55 POINTS OR 0.14%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 1.00 PTS OR 0.01 %
Spain IBEX UP 25.80 POINTS OR 0.28%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 152.51 PTS OR 0.56%
WTI Oil price 80.04 12: EST
Brent Oil: 84.77. 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 79.57 / ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 78/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2530 UP 4
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.448 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0954 UP 0.0048 OR 48 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2497 UP 0077 or 77 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.4425% down 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 131.59 DOWN 0,724 //YEN UP 72 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3448 up .0011 CDN dollar, down 11 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.33
Brent OIL: 84.61
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 9 BASIS pts to 3.346%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 3.596%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 14 PTS AT 3.8391%
USA dollar index: 101.26 DOWN 53 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.22
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 79,52 DOWN 0 AND 78/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 198.11 PTS OR 0.59%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 48.24 PTS OR 0.37%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.39 DOWN .84 PTS (4.53)%
GLD: $187,96 UP 3.44 OR 1.86%
SLV/ $22.97 UP 0.91 OR 4.13%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
‘Bad News’ Is No Longer ‘Good News’ As Jacked-Up Jobs Data & Jamie Dimon Jolt Markets
TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 11:01 PM
Banks, big-tech, and the buck tumbled today as gold, crypto, and bonds all surged higher after a weak manufacturing orders print was followed up by some ugly labor market indications from the JOLTS data.
In the “old days”, this ‘bad news’ would have been ‘good news’ for stocks as the ‘QE brrrrr’ trade algos kicked in… but it seems the “r” word is a bigger problem for the marginal-buyer, and couple that with another inflationary impulse from oil and stagflation just got another check in the box.
Hope – the spread between ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ macro data – has collapsed to its lowest since 2002…
Source: Bloomberg
The STIRs markets did react how one would imagine, with a dramatic dovish flush…
Source: Bloomberg
With the entire short-end (Fed expectations) curve adjusting 15-20bps more dovish with a 25bps May hike now less likely than a coin-toss, and a 26% chance of rate-cut in June…
Source: Bloomberg
But stocks did not like it, as all but The Dow have erased all of yesterday’s gains…
Notably, early in the day, 0DTE traders faded the S&P’s losses, but once the index hit 4100, they covered those long delta flows pushing the market to its lows. The rest of the day saw the market track up and down with 0DTE flows…
‘Most Shorted’ stocks were slammed again at the open but could not make it back like yesterday…
Source: Bloomberg
This was all hampered further by Jamie Dimon’s warning that “the current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come.”
Regional banks tumbled back near the post-SVB lows…
All of yesterday’s value-stock rotation was erased today…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields tumbled today on the data with the short-end dramatically outperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
With 2Y Yields back below 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
And the re-steepening of the yield curve…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar dived on the ‘dovish’ news to two-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto rallied on the day with Ethereum outperforming, testing up towards $1900, the highest since Aug 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold soared with Futs above $2040 and spot above $2020. Gold has only closed above today’s close on 5 days in history..
Oil prices ended the day flat, with WTI holding above $80…
And finally, with oil prices rising, NatGas (on an oil barrel equivalent basis) is at its ‘cheapest’ to WTI since 2013…
Source: Bloomberg
And if you’re wondering where oil goes next?
Source: Bloomberg
…chop for a few months before lifting off (and surprising an ‘easy’ Fed with resurgent inflation).
i b Morning trading:
Early morning trading:
Gold & Bonds Soar After Weak Jobs, Manufacturing Data; Rate-Cut Odds Soar
TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 05:33 PM
Bonds and Bullion are soaring after the ugly JOLTS and weak manufacturing data this morning.
Spot Gold soared back above $2020. The precious metal has only ever been higher than this on seven days in history…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields are plunging…
With 2Y back well below 4.00%…
As rate-hike expectations plummet across the curve with a 25bps hike in May now less than 50% (and year-end rates expected to be 65bps below current levels)…
Around 15-20bps has been cut off of the STIRs curve…
The dollar plunged to its lowest in 2 months…
Stocks are mixed with Nasdaq rebounding but Small Caps (finance heavy) tumbling…
Regional Bank stocks are extending losses…
Will Powell shift his tone?
II) USA DATA
usa economy faltering badly as factory orders tumbled in Feb. What is worse is the reliable ISM data signals collapse to come
(zerohedge)
US Factory Orders Tumbled In Feb As ISM Signals Collapse To Come
TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 05:07 PM
After January’s headline factory orders tumbled MoM (following December’s unexpectedly large jump), consensus estimates are for February to see a further (0.5%) decline (which would fit with the declining ISM data yesterday). However, Feb Factory Orders tumbled 0.7% MoM (and worse still, January was revised down to a 2.1% decline)…
Source: Bloomberg
That slows the YoY growth in US Factory Orders to just 2.7% – the slowest since Feb 2021
Core Factory Orders were expected be be unchanged MoM in February but declined 0.3% MoM (and also saw January’s 1.2% MoM rise revised down to 0.8% rise). Core Factory orders have basically gone nowhere for a year…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, WTF is going is on here…
Source: Bloomberg
Outside of the COVID lockdowns, ISM Manufacturing survey is in the deepest contraction since the Great Financial Crisis, but manufacturers’ orders are ‘steady’?
END
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
END
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report April 3 2023 Issue 6981 | Independent View of the News |
GREG HUNTER REPORT//
TOMORROW WILL BE VERY LIMITED PROBABLY JUST COMEX DATA
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