April 13/2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $31.70, TO $2041.00

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP 48 CENTS   AT $25.83

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE $2040.25

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 25.83

Bitcoin morning price:, $30,228 UP 318  Dollars

  Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,274  UP 364 dollars

Platinum price closing  $1055.85 UP $35.45

Palladium price; closing $1520.35 UP $47.30

END

I am back to my usual routine.

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2720.30 UP 22.40 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2732.50)

BRITISH GOLD: 1628.30 UP 12.78 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)

EURO GOLD: 1846.40UP 11.20 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)

COMEX DATA  EXCHANGE: 

COMEX//NOTICES

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,010.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/12/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 04/14/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

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118 C MACQUARIE FUT 18
323 C HSBC 6
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 29
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 6
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 9
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 73 4
690 C ABN AMRO 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 5
800 C MAREX SPEC 6 4
880 C CITIGROUP 1
880 H CITIGROUP 8
905 C ADM 6

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TOTAL: 91 91
MONTH TO DATE: 21,770

JPMorgan stopped 4/91 contracts

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT:  91 NOTICES FOR 9,100 OZ  or  0.28300 TONNES

total notices so far: 21,770 contracts for 2,177,000 oz (67.713 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 5 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 25,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :  304 for 1,520,000 oz 

 

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD  UP $31.70

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://////A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES 

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 48 CENTS 

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 470.974 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2996  TO 145,695 AND CLOSER TO THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH  OUR STRONG $0.30 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.30). AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A MONSTER GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1586 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 425 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (  THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 13.330 MILLION OZ.)  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A HUGE  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1586 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  1.055 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE)+ THE 13.330 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 14.96 MILLION OZ/ ////  V)  HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –378 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 8 days, total 13,050 contracts:   OR 65.250 MILLION OZ . (1631 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:62.250 MILLION OZ 

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH

APRIL  62.25 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2996  CONTRACTS WITH OUR  $0.30 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1586 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF  1.055 MILLION  OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE//  20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 4.75 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN APRIL (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 14.96 MILLION OZ  .. WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 4582 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 

 WE HAD 5  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR   25,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GOOD SIZED 6864  CONTRACTS  TO 483,431 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED XX CONTRACTS

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 6864 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR  $6.25 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APR. AT 66.892 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A 5200 OZ QUEUE JUMP:(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of   COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $6.25 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN  OF 10,990  OI CONTRACTS (31. 374 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4126 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 483.431

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,087 CONTRACTS  WITH 5961 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4126 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,990 CONTRACTS OR 34.183 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4126 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (6864 //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,990 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 66.892 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 5200 OZ//NEW STANDING  69.576 TONNES   // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4)  GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  31,412 CONTRACTS OR 3,141,200 OZ OR 97.70 TONNES IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3926 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  97.70 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  97.70/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.75% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 97.70 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2990  CONTRACTS OI TO  145,695 AND  CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022 

EFP ISSUANCE 243  CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 1586  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1586  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3374 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1586 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4582 CONTRACTS. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //22.910 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.30 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

 2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.02 PTS OR .76%  //Hang  Seng CLOSED UP 34.62 POINTS OR .17%      /The Nikkei closed UP 74.27 PTS OR 0.26%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.24 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.8777/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP  TO 6.8835  /Oil UP TO 86.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83.03 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3  CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 6864 CONTRACTS UP TO 483,431 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.25 ON WEDNESDAY,

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4126  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  JUNE 4126 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4126 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 10,990  CONTRACTS IN THAT 4126 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 6864 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.25. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:    APRIL  (69.576) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 69.576  tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $6.25 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR VERY STRONG  SIZED GAIN OF 10,990 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  

 WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 34.183 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (66.892 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5200 OZ… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH  OUR GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $6.25

WE HAD +903 CONTRACTS ADDED TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,990  CONTRACTS OR 1,099,000  OZ OR 34.183 TONNES.

Estimated gold comex today 189,246 poor

final gold volumes/yesterday  240,167 fair

//APRIL 13/ APRIL  2023 CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	643.02  oz 20 kilobars DELAWARE         .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	NIL OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today	91  notice(s) 9100 OZ 0.2830 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	599  contracts    59,900 oz 1.863 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	21,770 notices 2,177,000  OZ 67.713 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit: nil  oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits:  0

total deposits: NIL oz

 customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of DELAWARE:  643.02 oz (20 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 643.02  oz 

Adjustments;  1

I) OUT OF MANFRA:  6269.445 OZ DEALER TO CUSTOMER

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.

For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 690 contracts having LOST  133 contracts.   We had 185 contracts served upon yesterday so we GAINED 52 contracts or 5200 oz were QUEUE JUMPED. 

May gained 30  contracts up to 1988.

June GAINED 5268 contracts UP to 408,539 contracts.

We had 91 contracts filed for today representing  9,100 oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  73  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 91   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 4  notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,770 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL. 690 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 91 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,236,800 OZ  OR 69.576 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   active month of APRIL. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:No of notices filed so far (21,770 x 100 oz)+ 690 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (91)x 100 oz} which equals 2,236,800 oz standing OR 69.576 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL.. 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 69.576 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.  

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,654,200.280  OZ   51.452 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  21,277,405.516 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  12,277,405.516   (381.87  tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,671,321.250  O Z  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,017,121  OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 249.366 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

APRIL 11//2023// THE APRIL 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,161,72..869 oz CNT BBRINKS DELAWARE JPMORGAN LOOMIS .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	5 CONTRACT(S)    (25,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	22 contracts  (110,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	304 Contracts  (1,520,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

Total deposits: nil  oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 141.735  million oz/274.401 million =51.63% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 5

i) Out of CNT:  14,773.800  oz

ii) Out of Brinks:  972.100 oz

iii) Out of Delaware:  6007.339 oz

iv) Out of JPMorgan:  539,818.020 oz

v) Out of Loomis  600,158.610 oz

Total withdrawals; 1,161,729.610    oz

adjustments: 1

dealer to customer JPMorgan:  676,075.200 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.117 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 274.401 million oz

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 27  CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 2  CONTRACT(S. WE HAD 2  NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 20,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.

MAY SAW A LOSS  OF 3706 CONTRACTS  DOWN  TO 81,853 

JUNE HAD A 36 CONTRACT GAIN TO 126

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 5 for 25,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  85,005  strong

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 108,880 huge

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 304 x  5,000 oz = 1,520,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL(27) and the number of notices served upon today 5 (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the APRIL/2023 contract month:  304 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (27) – number of notices served upon today (5 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL. contract month equates 1.6300 million oz  +/ EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 13.330 MILLION OZ //new total standing 14/96 million oz

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15  TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91

APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES

MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH:  WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 934.08 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942  MILLION OZ

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION  OZ

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ

MARCH 23  WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 470.974 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff: The World Is Starting To Divest Itself Of The Dollar

WEDNESDAY, APR 12, 2023 – 06:20 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

In a surprise move earlier this month, OPEC announced further oil production cuts of about 1.16 million barrels per day. Analysts projected the cuts could raise the price of oil by $10 per barrel. Peter Schiff recently appeared on NewsMax’s Wake Up America and explained why these production cuts will further complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to fight price inflation, and more broadly, how global moves like this and others undermine the dollar.

Peter called the production cuts “a very big deal” and said it is clearly complicating efforts to bring down price inflation — especially given the fact that we’re in the midst of another financial crisis.

Not only is the supply of oil going to come down, but the supply of money – US dollars – used to buy oil is going up. The Fed has already gone back to quantitative easing to bail out the banks. So, we’re printing more money, but we’re not producing as much oil.”

Compounding the problem is the fact that the world is starting to divest itself from US dollars.

That will put more downward pressure on the value of the dollar, which of course will put more upward pressure on the price of oil.”

Wake Up America host Carl Higbie noted that President Trump made energy independence a priority. Peter said it’s not just energy independence that is necessary.

We need to be able to produce everything. We’re dependent on the rest of the world for everything that we consume because we no longer have the industrial capacity that we once enjoyed because of the policies that have been pursued for decades. We have too much regulation. We have too high taxes and too much government spending, and so we’re not producing what Americans consume. We rely on the rest of the world.”

Peter pointed out that the only way the US can rely on the world as it does is because the dollar is the reserve currency.

We may lose that privilege over the next several years, maybe even over the next few months. Who knows?”

The BRICS nations recently announced plans for a new currency. Higbie asked what impact that could have even if it only usurps a small percentage of global trade in dollars. Peter said he thinks it would hurt “substantially.”

And once they start moving in that direction, the pendulum is going to continue to swing. There are all sorts of reasons why the world should want to divest of dollars and no longer depend on the US dollar as a reserve currency, but we gave them another one. The Biden administration in slapping those economic sanctions on Russia really highlighted how dangerous it is to allow the United States to enjoy this privilege. And so, we have scared the world into divesting of dollars, something they should have done anyway because it was in their economic interest to do so.”

Peter emphasized that the dollar’s role as the world currency is a huge privilege for the US that the rest of the world pays for.

It enables Americans to live beyond our means. We’re able to consume all kinds of stuff that we did not produce. And the only reason we could do that is because we could print money that costs us nothing and our trading partners will accept that instead of actual goods. If we lose that privilege, our standard of living is going to implode.”

Higbie asked Peter what he would tell Joe Biden to do if he had 30 seconds with the president.

Well, he needs to resign. But he also needs to take Kamala Harris with him. But what we need is free market capitalism. We don’t need more government solutions to government-created problems. Government has to get out of the way so free market capitalism can clean up the mess government created.”

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//

“Lions Led by Donkeys:” The Irrevocable Decline in US Hegemony

Matthew Piepenburg
April 12, 2023

In his latest conversation with WTFinance’s Anthony Fatseas, Matterhorn Asset Management principal Matthew Piepenburg answers the question: Is the worst behind us? 

The short answer is: No. The reasons, and signals, however, are many, which Piepenburg addresses from both a broad and market-specific perspective. 

Piepenburg’s analysis begins and ends with a string cite of bond-market-driven signals and crises—from the repo disaster of 2019 to the latest US bank failures of 2023. Piepenburg distinguishes the bank failures of 2008 and 2023, but reminds that the Fed has its fingerprints on every crisis and every artificial “recovery.” The simple math of debt, inflation and monetary policy failures (akin to “credit cards and whiskey”) confirm that cornered central banks have no good options or scenarios left. It’s either tighten into economic depression (hangover) or loosen policy into a hyper-inflationary pain (hangover). The latter is most likely.

Piepenburg also addresses the added stressors of slow but steady de-dollarization and the waning petrodollar by unpacking their impact on desperate and increasingly ineffective Fed and currency options and the invisible tax of inflation. Trust in the experts (from markets, media and foreign policy) is falling because promise after promise has been broken in real-time.

Volatility in the two most important global assets—USDs and USTs–is a clear and present danger. Piepenburg explains how the QT policies of 2022 evolved into the current and predictable market headlines of 2023, including the rise of the BRICS and new trade alliances and alternative payment systems. By welching on the Bretton Woods gold-backed USD of 1944 in 1971, the US has created pent-up distrust of the US currency and IOU’s which means USD hegemony is slowly ending—though this does not mean the end of the USD as the world reserve currency. 

Ultimately, Piepenburg advises more critical thinking, which is not the same as “anti-patriotic.” The facts and math of failed financial and military policies out of DC demand closer scrutiny and greater preparation for informed investors, which, as Piepenburg argues, involves a careful look at commodities in general and precious metals in particular.

end

A must view..

Mathew Piepenburg/Adam Taggart

“No Way Out” For Global Markets Trapped In A Doom-Loop Of Debt

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-way-out-global-markets-trapped-doom-loop-debt

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Via GoldSwitzerland.com,

In this compelling conversation with Wealthion founder, Adam Taggart, Matterhorn Asset Management principal, Matthew Piepenburg, addresses the current and vast range of headline market topics, signals and risks. Inflation, deflation, risk assets, bond stress, cryptos, war, bank failures, CBDC’s rise, trapped policy makers and, of course, the topic of precious metals are all carefully and plainly discussed.

Piepenburg’s broader views on current and future financial conditions are bluntly yet realistically presented as a “no way out” scenario for global economies distorted by cornered central bankers.

The bottom line is as simple as it is incontrovertible: The global economy is stuck in a doom loop of debt.

Either central banks raise rates to allegedly “kill inflation” by killing the economy and markets, or they resort to more mouse-click money and kill the currency in your wallet.

Historically, all debt-cornered nations spur collapsing markets followed by collapsing currencies and inflation-driven social unrest. Leaders of all eras and stripes (left or right) then address this unrest with tighter, more centralized controls over our economies and lives. CBDC is a classic and modern symptom of this timeless pattern.  So is war. The current era will be no exception, as history (from ancient Rome to Chairman Mao, or Napoleon to the rise of fascist leaders of the 1930’s) offers no exception.

Piepenburg tracks the current evolution of this trend in a Federal Reserve that has tightened too fast and too high, breaking everything in its path in one dis-inflationary debt or banking crisis after the next, which are inevitably “solved” via more inflationary and mouse-clicked dollars. End result? Currency debasement, for which gold is one obvious and historical solution rather than “gold bug” apology.

Topic after topic, issue after issue, Piepenburg shows how there is now no easy or “soft” way out for policy makers who tricked the markets and themselves into believing that a debt crisis could be solved via more debt. In the end, the last bubble to burst is always the currency, and the USD, like every other currency, will be no exception.https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-way-out-global-markets-trapped-doom-loop-debt

END

Rickards: The Real Reason Gold Hasn’t Exploded

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 01:25 PM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

The world has changed radically in recent years. We’ve had the worst pandemic since 1918, and the third worst in world history. We’ve had a global supply chain breakdown. Inflation has been the worst since the early 1980s, despite the fact that it’s come down since peaking last June.

Meanwhile, Europe is experiencing its worst war since the end of World War II.

That kinetic war in Ukraine has been accompanied by a financial and economic war between the U.S., the U.K., the EU and Russia that involves extreme financial sanctions, including seizing the central bank reserves of the world’s 11th-largest economy.

That financial war and accompanying sanctions disrupted supply chains on top of the disruptions that were already present. They still persist.

And the world’s second-largest economy, China, locked down 50 million people in Shanghai and Beijing for months in a hopeless and misguided effort to suppress COVID. (China has finally seemed to learn that the virus goes where it wants). Meanwhile, tensions in the Taiwan Strait are high, with a lot of talk about a potential Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan. The list goes on.

If gold is the ultimate safe haven for investors and the world has been dangerously unsafe, then the price of gold must have been skyrocketing, right?

That’s not the case. Today gold is about $2,030 per ounce after gaining over $200 in the last month (that price fluctuates daily and intraday). That’s still lower than the $2,069 all-time high of Aug. 6, 2020.

The bottom line is, gold is lower today than it was three years ago. There have been some spills and thrills along the way including two peaks over $2,000 and several smashes down into the $1,680 range, but always followed by a reversion to a persistent central tendency that hasn’t moved much at all.

So, we’re back to the original question. With inflation, shortages, and war all around, why is gold not surging past $3,000 per ounce and making its way to $4,000, $5,000 and beyond?

Supply/demand conditions favor higher gold prices. Global production of gold has remained fairly constant for the past seven years. Over the same seven-year period, during a period when global output was flat, central banks increased their official holdings by over 6%.

China has added over 1,400 metric tonnes in the past thirteen  years (that’s the official number; unofficially they probably own far more). Russia has acquired over 1,500 metric tonnes over that same period.

Other large buyers have included Poland, Turkey, Iran, Kazakhstan, Japan, Vietnam and Mexico. Central banks in the Visegard Group (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) have also bought gold.

What’s curious is that individual investors in the U.S. still seem indifferent to gold as a monetary asset. In theory, central banks are the most knowledgeable about the real condition of the global monetary system. If central banks are buying all the gold they can with hard currency (dollars or euros), it’s not clear what retail investors are waiting for.

Of course, central bank holdings are only about 17.5% of total above-ground gold and there is far more demand from bullion investors and for jewelry (a form of wearable wealth). Still, central banks are arguably the most knowledgeable market participants; and their steady increases in gold holdings is meaningful.

Interest rates also play a supporting role. Many of the directional moves in gold prices over the past three years have been tied to interest rate moves. The correlation is not perfect, but it is strong.

The rally in gold prices in late 2020 was tied to a fall in interest rates (yield-to-maturity) on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note from 1.930% on December 19, 2019 to 0.508% on July 31, 2020.

Similarly, the fall in gold prices after February 2021 was tied to an increase in interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note from 1.039% on January 2, 2021 to 3.130% on May 2, 2022. Rates are 3.44% as of today.

But I believe that interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note will fall again and will continue to fall as global growth weakens. That’s good news for gold investors. Short-term rates have gone up because of Fed policy, but long-term rates will go down because investors see that the Fed will cause a recession. That correlates with higher gold prices.

While market supply/demand conditions are favorable for gold, and the overall interest rate environment is also favorable for gold, neither has seemed to have the power needed to push gold sustainably past $2,000.

What’s the problem?

The real headwind for gold and the main reason gold has struggled to gain traction for the past three years has been the strong dollar.

After all, the dollar price of gold is really just the inverse of the strength of the dollar. A weaker dollar means a higher dollar price for gold. A stronger dollar means a lower dollar price for gold.

It may seem paradoxical to imagine a strong dollar in the midst of all the inflation we’ve been seeing. But that’s the case.

What’s extraordinary over the past three years isn’t that gold hasn’t soared; it’s that gold has held its own in the face of a persistently strong dollar. So that leads to the next question:

What’s been behind the strong dollar and what could cause the dollar to suddenly weaken and send gold prices into the stratosphere?

The strong dollar has been driven by a demand for dollar-denominated collateral, mostly U.S. Treasury bills, needed as collateral to support leverage on bank balance sheets and in hedge fund derivatives positions.

That high-quality collateral has been in short supply. As banks scramble for scarce collateral, they need dollars to pay for the Treasury bills. That fuels dollar demand.

The scramble for collateral also speaks to fears of a banking crisis in the wake of SVB’s collapse, weaker economic growth, fears of default, decreasing creditworthiness of borrowers and fear of a global liquidity crisis. We’re not there yet, but we’re getting close with no relief in sight.

As weak growth turns into a global recession, a new financial panic will be on the horizon. At that point, the dollar itself may cease to be a safe haven, especially given the aggressive use of sanctions by the U.S. and the desire of major economies such as China, Russia, Turkey, and India to avoid the U.S. dollar system if possible.

When this panic hits and the dollar is deemed no longer reliable, the world will turn to gold.

Frustration with the sideways movement of gold prices is understandable. But behind the curtain, a new liquidity crisis is brewing.

Investors should consider today’s prices a gift and perhaps a last chance to acquire gold at these prices before the real safe haven race begins.

Even above $2,000, gold is so cheap right now, it’s practically a steal.

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

Record New Year for Central-Bank Gold

Frank Holmes – Thursday, 4/13/2023 09:01

Net buying set Jan + Feb record…

JANUARY and February saw central banks accumulate gold at the fastest New Year pace on record, says Frank Holmes at US Global Investors.

According to a report by the World Gold Council’s Krishan Gopaul, central banks collectively bought a net 125 tonnes of the metal in those two months, the highest amount for the year-to-date period since that group became net buyers in 2010.

The countries reporting the largest purchases in the first two months were Singapore (51.4 tonnes), Turkey (45.5 tonnes), China (39.8 tonnes), Russia (31.1 tonnes) and India (2.8 tonnes).

The Central Bank of Russia published an update on its gold reserves for the first time in about a year, so the 31.1 tonnes were likely accumulated over the course of several months instead of in January and February.

Meanwhile, very few countries’ central banks shrank their gold reserves. Net sellers were Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Croatia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), though year-to-date purchases far outweighed sales.

If you look back at the list of net buyers, you’ll notice that three are members of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). I point this out because for the first time ever, BRICS countries’ share of the global economy has surpassed that of the G7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and US), on a purchasing parity basis. So we may be seeing the emergence of a multipolar world, with a US- centric world on one side and a China-centric world on the other.

Gold plays an important role in this multi- polarization. The BRICS need the precious metal to support their currencies and shift away from the US Dollar, which has served as the global foreign reserve currency for about a century. More and more global trade is now being conducted in the Chinese Yuan [Ed: Still barely 2%, way below China’s 18% share of global GDP] and there are reports that the BRICS – which could eventually include other important emerging economies such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and more – are developing their own medium for payments.

If this is indeed the case, the implication is clear to me that investors should be increasing their exposure to gold and gold miners. Gold is a finite resource. It’s expensive and time-consuming to produce more of it. At the same time, BRICS countries will continue to be net buyers as they seek to diversify away from the Dollar.

Net inflows into gold-backed ETFs turned positive in March after 10 straight months of outflows as the metal’s price flirts with a new record high.

Investors added nearly 1 million ounces to all known physical gold ETFs in March, the highest monthly increase since March 2022, when investors added 1.4 million ounces. As of March 31, total gold holdings stood at 93.2 million ounces, according to Bloomberg. 

In light of weak economic news, ongoing inflation, rising rates, a shaky banking sector and geopolitical tension, gold is catching a strong bid as it seeks to make a new all-time high. On Thursday, the metal touched $2032 an ounce, just $43 off its record high, set in August 2020.

I believe accumulating gold and gold stocks is prudent and wise at this time, especially as recession signals are starting to flash. US manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate for the fourth straight month, with ISM’s Manufacturing PMI sinking to 46.3 in March. That’s the third-lowest reading in 15 years, following the financial crisis and pandemic lockdowns. What’s more, every category – from new orders to production to inventories – was in contraction mode.

The Federal Reserve’s actions to slow economic growth appear to be having the desired effect. We may be looking at the end of the most aggressive rate hike cycle in two generations, and this carries risks that investors should be aware of.

Over the past 70 years, a Fed pause was followed by an economic recession 75% of the time, with an average lag of six months, according to CLSA’s Alexander Redman and Della Chen. The two analysts believe the Fed has just one more hike to go before it pauses and begins to reverse course. The cycle should be complete by July, Redman and Chen estimate.

If their estimates are correct, we may be looking at a recession late in the fourth quarter.

The time to buy equities, they say, is when the Manufacturing PMI bottoms after the start of the recession. Doing so resulted in positive 12-month returns seven out of eight times, for an average return of 26%.

Timing these things is always tricky, and we’re talking about events that could be months in the future. If a recession is in the cards, it may make sense to ride it out with the help of gold. As always, I recommend a 10% weighting, with 5% in physical gold and the other 5% in high-quality gold mining stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.

-END-

.

END

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: SUGAR

it appears that we have a sugar shortage as prices hit decade highs

(zerohedge)

Sugar Prices Hit Decade High On Global Shortage Fears

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 06:55 AM

The world is facing what appears to be a sugar shortage. A lack of deliverable sugar ahead of Friday’s expiry has sent the white-sugar futures contract for May to its highest level in over a decade.

John Stansfield, a senior sugar analyst at DNEXT Intelligence, told Bloomberg that the number of contracts to be closed, also known as open interest, implies a large delivery above 880,000 tons, adding those with short positions “don’t have the physical sugar to tender.”

White-sugar futures have surged nearly 20% in the last three weeks, hitting levels not seen since November 2011. 

The price surge, which will increase costs for food producers of various items such as soda, candy, and baked goods, will maintain pressure on global food inflation.

Bloomberg explains the shortage of the sweetener is global:

Prices of the sweetener have jumped on prospects for limited exports out of key shipper India and lackluster supplies from Thailand, Europe, China, and Mexico. 

India is one of the largest exporters of white sugar, but shipments are controlled by quotas that are almost exhausted with no real expectation of an increase, said Soren Jensen, a longtime market observer. India’s refining industry might soon have to shift from domestically produced raw sugar to imports — most likely from Brazil. The South American country just started its harvest, but transportation bottlenecks are an issue with sugar competing against a record soybean crop for space on railways and at ports.

And output estimates for the 2022-23 season will worsen the global shortage, according to Wilmar International Ltd. head of analysis Karim Salamon. 

Salamon warned:

“Next year’s crop will probably not be better.

 “The cane and beet acreage is likely to fall in most areas due to the effects of crop competition.”

A worsening global sugar shortage will be inconvenient for those addicted to candy and junk food. AddictionCenter has suggested that sugar is as addictive as Cocaine. 

END

After many major mishaps, JPMorgan is shrinking is base meetals business as they fire dozens of traders along with with bonuses.

(zerohedge)

JPM Shrinks Base Metals Business, Fires Dozens Of Traders, Slashes Bonuses Following Series Of Nickel Scandals

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 12:10 PM

JPMorgan has fired dozens of base metals clients and slashed bankers’ bonuses, as the business “remains under harsh internal scrutiny in the wake of last year’s nickel crisis”, Bloomberg reported.

JPMorgan, Wall Street’s largest metals trader, has been reviewing its commodity exposure for over a year after it played a prominent role as the biggest counterparty of the Chinese company at the center of the nickel short squeeze on the London Metal Exchange which prompted a widespread backlash against what many viewed as market manipulation meant to bail out a prominent Chinese player. It was also a financier of the top Chinese copper trader whose business ground to a halt after a liquidity crisis last year.

While the review is ongoing, JPMorgan has already scaled back its base metals business substantially, according to Bloomberg sources, with the moves being felt across the industry: as part of the overhaul, the bank has cut numerous base metals clients in Asia, with particularly deep cuts among privately owned Chinese companies. It is continuing to work only with a few large, long-standing clients in the region, they said. Bloomberg last year reported that JPMorgan had stopped new inventory financing in China.

JPMorgan’s base metals team is under heightened internal scrutiny and bonuses for many have been cut, the people added. In the wake of the crisis last March, the bank’s nickel position was overseen by top management, including Chief Operating Officer Daniel Pinto, and its appetite for risk-taking in metals has been reined in.

The retreat by the longstanding market leader comes as the metals world has been grappling with wild price swings, high interest rates, and a series of scandals that have sapped market liquidity. Some other mainstay banks have also pared back their exposure, particularly in Asia, where ICBC Standard Bank had also halted new inventory financing deals for copper in China.

Meanwhile, others have sought to capitalize as JPMorgan pulls back, with several American and European banks seeking to expand in metals in recent months.

As a reminder, JPMorgan played a central role in the nickel crisis that brought the LME to its knees last March. It was the largest counterparty for Tsingshan Holding Group, the company whose huge short position was at the center of the squeeze. It reported a $120 million loss related to nickel in its first quarter results a year ago.

As the largest bank in the base metals industry, it was also involved in the saga in other ways. Court filings have shown that it was a broker for both Elliott Investment Management and Jane Street, which are suing the LME over the decision to cancel trades.

And when Maike Metals International ran into trouble later last year, JPMorgan was left with around 30,000 tons of copper it had been financing for the trading company in Shanghai. In the end, the bank was able to sell the metal without major losses, the people said, but the episode highlighted the risks of trading in China’s base metals industry. Maike has since filed a request for a court-led restructuring.

More recently, JPM was revealed as the owner of $1.3 million of LME nickel contracts that were invalidated after they turned out to be backed by bags of stones.

JPMorgan began monitoring its commodities exposure amid heightened market volatility even before the nickel short squeeze last March, but since then has been conducting a deeper review.

While the bank’s cuts have been focused on base metals, it has also been reviewing its activities across commodities. Several gold refineries have had their credit lines with the lender cut since the nickel crisis, according to people familiar with the matter.

And there have been a number of recent departures from JPMorgan’s commodities team, although they aren’t connected to the review, one of the people said. They include Jack Luo, a London-based banker who played a key role in handling the company’s relationship with Tsingshan and Maike, as well as Amar Singh, the head of commodities sales for Asia Pacific, according to people familiar with the matter.

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//,THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP TO 6.8777

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8835

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.02 POINTS OR .26%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 34.62 PTS OR .26%

2. Nikkei closed UP 74.27  PTS OR 0.26% 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR: ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  101.02 EURO RISES TO 1.1018 UP 21 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.456Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 133.27 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morninG

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN  CHINESE YUAN:  UP//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.3778***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.236*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.427…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.239

3j Gold at $2026.00 silver at: 25.60 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND  33 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.61//

3m oil into the 83 dollar handle for WTI and  86  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 133.27  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .456% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8908 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9811 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. 

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.4350 UP 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.664 UP  1 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.9829  UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.33…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 5 BASIS PTS AT 3.613

end

2.  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Trade In Narrow Range As Attention Turns To PPI, Jobless Claims

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 08:06 AM

For the fourth day in a row, US equity futures are effectively unchanged in the overnight action, as the April doldrums continue, and as shown below spoos have traded in a narrow 80 points range all month.

Zooming in on today, we see that S&P futures edged fractionally higher as investors weighed the possibility of a pivot in Federal Reserve policy against increasing expectations of a recession. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% as of 7:40 am ET while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.3%. On Wednesday The S&P 500 cash index dropped on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed’s last meeting showed policy makers expect a mild recession later this year. Both European and Asian stocks edged higher. Treasury yields stayed in a narrow range, with the rate-sensitive two-year holding below 4%. The Bloomberg dollar index dropped for a 3rd day and traded near the lowest level since the start of February.

Among notable movers in premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks gained after the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index posted its biggest single-day drop in a month. BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. dropped after the software company filed a shelf registration statement for the resale of up to about 113.3m shares of common stock from time to time. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks climbed in US premarket trading on Thursday as Bitcoin hovers around the closely watched $30,000 level for a third session. Strategists at Bank of America said the rally may have room to run if flows between cryptocurrency exchanges and personal digital wallets are any guide. Riot Platforms +2.5%, Marathon Digital +3.1% and Coinbase  +2.3%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Delta Air Lines (DAL) gains as much as 4.1% in premarket trading after the company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) shares are down 0.5% in premarket trading, after Scotiabank downgraded the energy giant to sector perform from sector outperform.
• Fastenal (FAST) falls 3.2% in premarket trading after reporting March daily sales growth of 6.8% that is “weaker than previous months”. Its 1Q EPS beats analysts’ expectation.
• LSB Industries (LXU) is cut to hold from buy and its PT halved at Jefferies, with the broker anticipating challenges facing the chemicals firm will continue for several quarters. Shares fall 2.5%.
• LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) is downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies, with the broker flagging rising risks over US demand for the chemicals company amid growing pressure on consumers. Shares rise 2.7%.
• Precious metals miners rally in US premarket trading as the price of gold gains for a third day and holds above the $2,000/ounce level amid hopes over easier monetary policy by the end of the year.
• Rent the Runway (RENT) falls 4.1% in premarket trading after the fashion rental company’s annual revenue forecast disappointed. The company also said that Chief Financial Officer Scarlett O’Sullivan will transition out of her role.
• Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH) tumbles 20% in premarket trading after the sporting-goods retailer provided a weaker- than-expected net sales and profit outlook for the current period, calling out weather-related disruptions.
• Steven Madden (SHOO) is raised to buy from neutral at Citi on the expectation that executives at the shoe company will talk more optimistically about wholesale trends when it reports first- quarter results later this month. Shares rise 2.7% in light premarket trading.

A rally in US stocks faltered this month as mixed economic data as well as the latest FOMC Minutes signaled a recession is inevitable this year, yet stubbornly strong (and manipulated) labor market data has thrown the bears for a loop. But with inflation continuing to cool, investors are now betting the central bank could cut rates before the end of the year.

The latest US inflation report offered evidence for both bond bulls and bears. While the year-on-year headline figure fell, core prices edged higher. Swaps markets still favor a quarter-point hike by the Federal Reserve in May, even as traders added to wagers that the Fed will cut interest rates before the end of this year at a faster pace than anticipated earlier in the week.

“There is sufficient uncertainty for most people to see what they want to see,” said James Athey, investment director at Abrdn. “Equities are taking comfort from the lack of outright ‘bad news’ from the CPI print and the fact that the Fed is still sounding dovish relative to” February, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested borrowing costs may reach a higher peak than traders and policymakers anticipate.

March PPI data is expected by Bloomberg economists to pick up following February’s downside surprise, although a modest rise in the monthly print is viewed as unlikely to change Fed’s course where markets continue to expect a 25bp rate hike.

“US markets are struggling to find a place to settle amid conflicting concerns,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “The Fed minutes show several members are concerned about recession risk. At the same time, we’ve seen recent market moves that seem to be in reaction to the idea that interest rates will be raised further than expected to bring inflation down. Ultimately, uncertainty is high and that will make it difficult for markets to land in any one given spot.”

Elsewhere, investors are set to get a first clue on the health of Corporate America when the big banks kick off the reporting season on Friday. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to have dropped 8% in the first quarter — the biggest year-over-year decline since 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. Strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management also said the outlook for stocks remains challenging in the absence of a Fed pivot and rising growth risks. They expect US corporate earnings to drop 4.5% in 2023.

European markets were solidly in the green; the Stoxx 600 rose 0.3% and on course for a fourth consecutive increase, with the DAX and FTSE 100 lagging. European luxury-goods stocks have rallied, led by LVMH whose shares rose to a record high after first-quarter sales topped estimates. Here are the biggest European movers:

• LVMH shares rallied to a record high after the luxury retailer reported better-than-expected first-quarter sales, led by Fashion & Leather Goods. The company, the first of the big luxury names to report sales for the period, has set a high bar for rivals, analysts said.
• Tesco shares gain as much as 2.6%, reaching the highest since May, after the UK’s biggest supermarket operator reported full-year adjusted operating profit that met estimates. Analysts liked the results overall, noting the firm’s strong free cash flow and safe-haven credentials.
• Enel slumped after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni cut an eleventh-hour deal with coalition partners to name industry veteran Flavio Cattaneo to replace Francesco Starace as chief executive officer of the state-controlled company.
• BayWa shares rise as much as 4.7% after M.M. Warburg Investment Research raised the recommendation on the stock to buy from hold on revised estimates from the trading and logistics company.
• EssilorLuxottica shares rise as much as 2.2% as the eye- care group is started with an overweight rating and €215 PT at JPMorgan, with the broker confident the company can continue to outperform the market.

Earlier, Asian stocks edged higher, helped by a rebound in Chinese shares after surprisingly strong exports data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.1% higher as of 5:02 p.m. in Hong Kong. A gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong rose after sliding as much as 2% as data showed the nation’s exports jumped 14.8% in US dollar terms last month, and as investors downplayed concerns over shareholder stake sales in tech firms. Alibaba was among the biggest drags and weighed on a gauge of Hong Kong-listed tech stocks after a Financial Times report that SoftBank is trimming its stake in the Chinese internet firm. That came close on the heels of Wednesday’s selloff in Tencent on news of major shareholder selling. “Reported plans to lower exposure to Alibaba by SoftBank may reiterate the prevailing loss of confidence in Chinese tech firms by foreign investors, giving rise to concerns that more may do the same,” Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG, wrote in a note. US data showed inflation is moderating, but not enough to dissuade the Fed from raising rates again next month. Defensive sectors including health care rose. South Korea led gains among key national equity gauges, while stocks rose in Singapore as well as Hong Kong. Japanese benchmarks also rose during afternoon trading hours amid data showing foreign investors made their largest-ever net purchase of the nation’s stocks last week.

Japanese equities closed slightly higher as data showing record foreign investment bolstered sentiment. Foreign investors bought a a net $18 billion worth of Japanese stocks last week, just before a media report that billionaire Warren Buffett is looking to increase his exposure to the nation’s equities. Foreign Buying of Japan’s Stocks Hits Record Amid Buffett Effect The Topix rose 0.1% to close at 2,007.93, while the Nikkei advanced 0.3% to 28,156.97. Keyence contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 2.5%. Out of 2,158 stocks in the index, 1,085 rose and 936 fell, while 137 were unchanged. The data on foreign investors “may have boosted appreciation of Japanese stocks and triggered domestic investors to buy,” said Ryuta Otsuka, strategist at Toyo Securities. “The news of Buffett’s investment in Japanese equities also continues to gain attention and it might encourage a reevaluation of the Japanese market.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to 7,324.10 as Australian employers added 53,000 jobs in March from the prior month, more than double economists’ forecasts, helping drive the Australian dollar higher. Australia’s employment growth surpassed expectations for a second straight month in March, underscoring the economy’s resilience and bolstering the case for the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates again.  Read: Australia’s Surge in Employment Opens Door to Further Rate Hike In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.1% to 11,930.86.

Indian markets extended their winning run to the ninth day on Thursday, the longest streak since January 2021, as retail inflation eases, while corporate earnings come into focus.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.1% to 60,431.00 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also rose by a similar margin to 17,828.00. Technology stocks were the biggest drag on the benchmarks. Tata Consultancy Services fell after missing street estimates for its 4Q earnings while Infosys slumped ahead of its results. ICICI Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 1%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 17 rose and 13 fell.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%, on track for a third straight day of losses while the Australian dollar and Swiss franc compete for top spot among the G-10 currencies. The euro approached its strongest level of the year against the dollar, which was weighed down by the growing conviction of investors that a 25 basis-point rate hike in May will be the last in the Fed’s current tightening cycle, and will be followed by cuts later this year; the pound rose to its highest level versus the US currency since June. Traders price in the possibility of roughly 65 basis point of cuts by year- end, little changed from Wednesday. The yen recovered from earlier losses versus the dollar after new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda repeated plans to continue with monetary easing, pushing back against speculation that he’ll change the yield curve control policy.

In rates, treasuries are under pressure in early US session with yields cheaper by 2bp to 4bp across the curve as stock futures pare a portion of Wednesday’s drop. Losses broadly led by belly of the curve. US 10-year yields trade around 3.42%, while US 2-year yields edge up 2.5 basis points to 3.97%, having fallen sharply Wednesday after data showed a slowdown in US CPI. Bunds and gild are also falling; the 10Y Bund was at 2.377%, marginally cheaper on the day.  The latest Fed-dated OIS for the May meeting shows around 17bp of hike premium, unchanged on the day. US auction cycle concludes with $18b 30-year bond reopening at 1pm, following 2bp tail in Wednesday’s 10-year; WI 30-year yield around 3.65% is ~23bp richer than the March auction, which tailed by 0.7bp. IG issuance slate includes OMERS Finance Trust 5Y; Walmart was the only IG deal on Wednesday, pricing a 5-part $5b tranche, paying minimal new-issue concessions.

In commodities, crude futures are little changed with WTI trading near $83.30. Spot gold gains 0.6% to around $2,027. Bitcoin rises 1%. 

Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include UK GDP and Euro Area industrial production for February, and in the US there’s the March PPI reading and the weekly initial jobless claims. From central banks, we’ll hear from Bundesbank President Nagel and BoE Chief Economist Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Delta Air Lines.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4130.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 463.29
• MXAP up 0.2% to 162.63
• MXAPJ up 0.2% to 525.64
• Nikkei up 0.3% to 28,156.97
• Topix little changed at 2,007.93
• Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 20,344.48
• Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,318.36
• Sensex down 0.2% to 60,291.29
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,324.12
• Kospi up 0.4% to 2,561.66
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.38%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.1019
• Brent Futures little changed at $87.27/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.7% to $2,028.96
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.21% to 101.28

Top Overnight News

• The export engine at the heart of the Chinese economy has roared back to life, defying expectations and bolstering hopes that Beijing will achieve its growth target this year. Customs data released on Thursday showed dollar-denominated exports expanded 14.8 percent compared with the same period a year earlier, after falling 6.8 per cent in January and February. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a contraction of 7 percent. FT
• SoftBank has moved to sell almost all of its remaining shareholding in Alibaba, limiting its exposure to China and raising cash. Softbank has sold about $7.2bn worth of Alibaba shares this year through prepaid forward contracts, after a record $29bn selldown last year. The forward sales will eventually cut SoftBank’s stake in the $262bn Chinese ecommerce group to just 3.8 percent. FT
• AAPL is in talks w/suppliers to make MacBooks in Thailand as the company continues to diversify its supply chain out of China. Nikkei
• ECB policymakers are converging on a 25 basis point interest rate hike in May, even if other options remain on the table and the debate is not yet settled, according to five sources with direct knowledge of the discussion. RTRS
• The Kremlin warned on Wednesday that the outlook for extending a deal beyond May 18 that allows the safe wartime export of grain and fertilizer from several Ukrainian Black Sea ports was not great as Russia’s own such exports still faced obstacles. RTRS
• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicts inflation in the US, which has shown hints of moderating, will persist and likely won’t go below 4% anytime soon. BBG
• Delta Air Lines reported a first-quarter loss, but said strong summer bookings are expected to boost profits in the coming months. Delta reported a net loss of $363 million during the first three months of the year. WSJ
• US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Wednesday that the federal government could begin buying oil to replenish an emergency stockpile later this year, “if it is advantageous to taxpayers”. FT
• Manhattan apartment landlords are testing renters’ limits even before the market’s busiest season arrives. The median monthly rate rose to a record-high $4,175 in March, according to a report Thursday by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. That’s up $25 from the previous peak, reached in July, and almost 13% more than a year ago. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks initially opened lower but eventually traded mixed as the region pondered over the latest US CPI report alongside Wall Street losses. ASX 200 remained in the red as gains in the Energy and Gold sectors failed to fully offset losses in Tech and Healthcare. Nikkei 225 briefly dipped under the 28k level before trimming losses, although the region was cautious as the Japanese government initially predicted the latest North Korean missile was in danger of landing in the Southwestern region of Hokkaido. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened lower but then trimmed losses with Hong Kong heavily underperforming at the open as Alibaba slumped over 4.5% after the FT reported Softbank has reportedly moved to sell almost all of its remaining stake in Alibaba. Mainland China did not react to the Chinese March trade data beats across the board as China customs warned China’s trade development will face greater difficulties and challenges.

Top Asian News

• Softbank (9984 JT) has reportedly moved to sell almost all of its remaining stake in Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA), according to the FT.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ will continue monetary easing until the price target is stably and sustainably achieved; domestic consumer inflation is currently around 3% but likely to slow ahead. Governor Ueda said they should pay more attention to the risk of failing to achieve the 2% inflation target with a premature end to easing rather than the risk of being behind the curve on inflation, according to Reuters.
• China customs said China’s trade development will face greater difficulties and challenges, according to Reuters. China’s customs official said weakening external demand and geopolitical factors will test China’s trade development, and the export of NEVs, lithium batteries, and solar products, drove up China’s overall exports.
• Industry experts believe the PBoC’s LPR will likely remain “unchanged” in April, according to Securities Daily.
• Bank of Korea confirmed FX swap deal with National Pension Fund for a maximum of USD 35bln, according to Reuters.

European bourses are somewhat mixed, with heavyweight LVMH skewing performance to the upside after their Q1 report. Sectors are similarly skewed with Consumer Products & Services outperforming with LVMH inspiring gains in peers, next best are the Housebuilders after numerous upgrades via HSBC. Stateside, futures are in the green though only incrementally after Wednesday’s pressure, ES +0.2%, ahead of IJC and PPI before retail sales on Friday.

Top European News

• Debate on the next ECB rate move is reportedly converging on a 25bp hike, via Reuters citing sources; debate not over, one small group still making case for 50bp in May, another group after Unch.; Uncertainty, proximity of terminal and delayed impact of past hikes support case for a slowdown, base line in March economic projections seen as largely intact.
• ECB’s Nagel said the persistence of high core inflation showed the ECB has further to go in tightening monetary policy, via CNBC.
• Slovak Court finds ECB’s Kazimir guilty of bribery, fines him EUR 100k.

FX

• Dollar extends retreat from NFP peak as DXY slips to 101.200 in wake of soft headline CPI and dovish-leaning FOMC minutes.
• Greenback’s G10 peers clear or probe big figure levels, with Euro eyeing 1.1033 YTD high, Pound back on 1.2500 handle, Franc probing 0.8900 and Yen 133.00.
• Aussie approaches 0.6750 in wake of upbeat jobs data.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8658 vs exp. 68672. (prev. 6.8854)

Fixed income

• Bonds fade after pop on dovish-sounding ECB source report, Bunds hold just off new April low.
• Gilts bounce a few ticks from 102.50 after a strong 10 year UK tap.
• Treasuries essentially flat awaiting US producer prices, jobless claims and long bond supply after sloppy T-note sale.

Commodities

• Overall, a session without specific macro drivers with commodity action relatively contained and somewhat directionless aside from a very modest USD-induced upward bias.
• Currently, WTI and Brent are pivoting the neutral point of a sub-USD 0.50/bbl range that is by extension well within, but at the top-end of, Wednesday’s much more pronounced boundaries.
• PetroChina is close to announcing the award of a stake in QatarEnergy’s 32mln ton per year North Field East LNG expansion, Energy Intel reports.
• Metals continue to grind higher owing to the softer USD and positive read on the Chinese consumer via European earnings.

Geopolitics

• Ukraine’s Energoatom says Russian mine exploded near generator room of reactor at Zaparizhzhia nuclear plant.
• North Korea fired an unspecified ballistic missile toward the East Sea, according to the South Korean military cited by Yonhap.
• Japan issued an emergency warning following the North Korean missile launch. People in Hokkaido were told to seek shelter. This was later withdrawn.
• Japan’s Defence Ministry said the North Korean missile may have been an Inter-continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) type, according to Reuters.
• North Korea seemingly tested a new weapon system, possibly solid-fuel ballistic missiles, according to Yonhap.
• South Korea will hold a security meeting following North Korea’s missile launch, according to YTN.
• White House “strongly condemns” what it calls a North Korean ICBM test, according to a statement.
• US-Indo-Pacific Command statement said the North Korean missile launch does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to allies.
• Russian Defence Ministry said its SU-27 fighter aircraft escorted German Orion reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea, according to Reuters.
• Taiwanese Defence Ministry said in the past 24 hours, 26 Chinese aircraft and seven ships were seen around Taiwan; 14 Chinese Air Force planes crossed the Taiwanese Strait Median line on Friday.
• Japan, US, Australia, India “Quad” summit likely to be held on May 24th in Sydney, according to Japanese press.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: March PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.1%
• 08:30: March PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 4.4%
• 08:30: March PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 4.4%
• 08:30: March PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 08:30: March PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 3.0%, prior 4.6%
• 08:30: March PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%
• 08:30: April Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 228,000
• 08:30: April Continuing Claims, est. 1.84m, prior 1.82m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a see-saw performance yesterday after the US CPI print for March came in beneath expectations. Initially, the reaction was very positive as investors focused on whether the Fed might soon call it a day on rate hikes. In fact, 5 minutes after the release the 2yr Treasury yield was down by a sizeable -15.2bps on the day. However, as the focus turned to core inflation that remained resilient, most of those gains had unwound by the end of the session, and the 2yr Treasury yield ended the day “only” -6.5bps lower, whilst the S&P 500 reversed its opening gains to shed -0.41%.

In terms of the details, the inflation report showed that monthly CPI was at just +0.05% in March (vs. +0.2% expected), marking the weakest monthly inflation since July. Lower energy prices played a significant role in that, with a decline of -3.5% on the month, and there was a big decline in the housing components too, as monthly rent inflation fell to a one-year low of +0.49%. In turn, that all meant the year-on-year CPI rate was down to +5.0% (vs. +5.1% expected), which is the lowest since May 2021.

But even as the headline number surprised on the downside, the core CPI reading was very much as expected, coming in at a monthly +0.38% (vs. +0.4% expected). That’s equivalent to +4.7% on an annualised basis, and even if you smooth things out by looking at the last three months together, the annualised rate is still at +5.1%. So we still haven’t seen the sort of numbers where the Fed can relax about inflation just yet. In their recap (link here), our US economists reiterate their view that the Fed will deliver a final 25bps at the May 3 meeting, and then hold the policy rate steady though year-end.

Later in the session, Fed speakers themselves bolstered the view that they had at least a bit further to go. For instance, San Francisco Fed President Daly said that “the strength of the economy and the elevated readings on inflation suggest that there is more work to do”. And Richmond Fed President Barkin also said that there was “still more to do I think to get core inflation back down”.

This was followed later on by the FOMC minutes from the March meeting, which showed that policymakers had lowered their expectations for rate hikes this year following the banking crisis, with officials calling for more caution and a need to watch for a “credit crunch” in the upcoming data releases. One line of particular interest was that the staff were now forecasting a “mild recession starting later this year”. But overall, the minutes indicate that the committee sees the recent turmoil as contained to a “small number of banks with poor risk-management practices and that the banking system remained sound and resilient.” The upcoming loan officer data that is due to be released in May will be key to see how lending conditions evolved in the wake of the upheavals we saw in March.

As mentioned at the top, the 2yr yield saw an intraday increase of +15.2bps from the lows just after the CPI print to trade flat by the European close. However, rates rallied in the US afternoon following the FOMC minutes, and the 2yr yield closed -6.5bps lower at 3.96%. And the 10yr yield saw a similar pattern, where it recovered +12.0bps intraday from a -9.0bps decline before actually ending the day -3.6bps lower at 3.39%. They’ve since added +1.7bps overnight to reach 3.41%.

Against this backdrop, investors initially pared back the chances of a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in May, with the probability of a 25bp move falling to 67% after the CPI data before the chances actually ended +2pp higher on the day at 74% after the FOMC minutes. At the same time, the size of Fed cuts priced into this year rose with the policy rate expected after the December meeting falling -6.3bps to 4.32% – implying 67bps of cuts after hitting terminal next month.

When it comes to inflation, one factor that hasn’t been helping are the continued gains for oil prices over recent days, and yesterday saw Brent Crude close above $87/bbl for the first time since January. This continues the upward trend we’ve seen over the last month, particularly after the OPEC+ group decided to cut output. The effects have been filtering through to consumers as well, with US gasoline prices reaching a 4-month high of $3.62 on Tuesday, so that’ll exert some upward pressure on future inflation prints.

For equities, the S&P 500 (-0.41%) declined into the close as risk sentiment dropped following the FOMC minutes. The loses were led by cyclicals with autos (-2.9%), semiconductors (-1.9%), consumer discretionary (1.6%), and transportation (-1.0%) among the worst performing industries, whereas defensives rallied. American Airlines (-9.22%) and United Airlines (-6.50%) were among the 5 worst performers in the entire index, which came as the former’s preliminary earnings guidance was beneath estimates. Given the late dip in sentiment, Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.13%) held onto its gains.

Speaking of Europe, sovereign bonds lost ground across the continent as investors moved to price in a more hawkish path of rate hikes from the ECB. That was particularly so after Austria’s Holzmann (one of the biggest hawks on the Governing Council) said in an interview that they should hike by another 50bps in May, and that the “danger of currently doing too little and to fan inflation is bigger than the risk of doing too much.” Separately, France’s Villeroy commented that core inflation “remains strong and is proving sticky.” With that in mind, yields on 10yr bunds (+5.9bps), OATs (+4.2bps) and BTPs (+4.3bps) all ended the day higher. It also meant that the spread of 10yr Treasuries over 10yr bunds had fallen down to 102bps by the close, which is the lowest since July 2020.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets are have put in a mixed performance this morning. The Hang Seng (-0.49%) is among the weaker performers, which follows an FT report that SoftBank Group has decided to sell most of its remaining stake in Alibaba. Otherwise, the CSI 300 (-0.36%) and the KOSPI (-0.02%) have both lost ground, whereas the Shanghai Comp (+0.05%) and the Nikkei (+0.14%) have posted a modest gain. In the meantime, Chinese trade data for March showed that exports in dollar terms were up +14.8% year-on-year (vs. -7.1% expected), which is the first time in six months that measure has been positive. That meant the trade surplus was at $88.2bn (vs. $40bn expected).

Elsewhere yesterday, the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged as expected, but warned that “demand is still exceeding supply and the labour market remains tight.” They also reiterated that they were prepared to hike rates further if needed, and Governor Macklem said that market expectations for rate cuts later this year “doesn’t look today like the most likely scenario to us”.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK GDP and Euro Area industrial production for February, and in the US there’s the March PPI reading and the weekly initial jobless claims. From central banks, we’ll hear from Bundesbank President Nagel and BoE Chief Economist Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Delta Air Lines.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

USD retreats further, fixed fades while LVMH supports European trade – Newsquawk US Market Open

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 06:24 AM

• European bourses are somewhat mixed with heavyweight LVMH skewing performance to the upside, US futures slightly firmer
• DXY continues to retreat from NFP peaks with EUR near YTD best and GBP above 1.25
• EGBs and USTs continue to fade with only fleeting upside arising from well received Gilt supply
• ECB debate reportedly converging around 25bp for May, via Reuters; though some argue for 50bp or Unch.
• Commodities contained overall though metals feature a USD-induced positive bias
• Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, US IJC, OPEC MOMR (07:30ET), speeches from BoC’s Macklem, BoE’s Pill, supply from the US.

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are somewhat mixed, with heavyweight LVMH skewing performance to the upside after their Q1 report.
• Sectors are similarly skewed with Consumer Products & Services outperforming with LVMH inspiring gains in peers, next best are the Housebuilders after numerous upgrades via HSBC.
• Stateside, futures are in the green though only incrementally after Wednesday’s pressure, ES +0.2%, ahead of IJC and PPI before retail sales on Friday.
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• Dollar extends retreat from NFP peak as DXY slips to 101.200 in wake of soft headline CPI and dovish-leaning FOMC minutes.
• Greenback’s G10 peers clear or probe big figure levels, with Euro eyeing 1.1033 YTD high, Pound back on 1.2500 handle, Franc probing 0.8900 and Yen 133.00.
• Aussie approaches 0.6750 in wake of upbeat jobs data.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8658 vs exp. 68672. (prev. 6.8854)
• Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• Bonds fade after pop on dovish-sounding ECB source report, Bunds hold just off new April low.
• Gilts bounce a few ticks from 102.50 after a strong 10 year UK tap.
• Treasuries essentially flat awaiting US producer prices, jobless claims and long bond supply after sloppy T-note sale.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Overall, a session without specific macro drivers with commodity action relatively contained and somewhat directionless aside from a very modest USD-induced upward bias.
• Currently, WTI and Brent are pivoting the neutral point of a sub-USD 0.50/bbl range that is by extension well within, but at the top-end of, Wednesday’s much more pronounced boundaries.
• PetroChina is close to announcing the award of a stake in QatarEnergy’s 32mln ton per year North Field East LNG expansion, Energy Intel reports.
• Metals continue to grind higher owing to the softer USD and positive read on the Chinese consumer via European earnings.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Debate on the next ECB rate move is reportedly converging on a 25bp hike, via Reuters citing sources; debate not over, one small group still making case for 50bp in May, another group after Unch.; Uncertainty, proximity of terminal and delayed impact of past hikes support case for a slowdown, base line in March economic projections seen as largely intact.
• ECB’s Nagel said the persistence of high core inflation showed the ECB has further to go in tightening monetary policy, via CNBC.
• Slovak Court finds ECB’s Kazimir guilty of bribery, fines him EUR 100k.

DATA RECAP

• UK GDP Estimate MM (Feb) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.4%); YY (Feb) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. 0.4%)
• ONS: Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.3% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020)
• UK GDP Estimate 3M/3M (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
• UK RICS Housing Survey (Mar) -43 vs. Exp. -48.0 (Prev. -48.0, Rev. -47).
• EU Industrial Production MM (Feb) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.7%, Rev. 1.0%); YY (Feb) 2.0% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 0.9%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• TikTok parent ByteDance reportedly offers to pay software makers to bring apps to its VR device, while Meta (META) sees friction over its app-store approvals, WSJ reports.
• Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

• Ukraine’s Energoatom says Russian mine exploded near generator room of reactor at Zaparizhzhia nuclear plant.
• North Korea fired an unspecified ballistic missile toward the East Sea, according to the South Korean military cited by Yonhap.
• Japan issued an emergency warning following the North Korean missile launch. People in Hokkaido were told to seek shelter. This was later withdrawn.
• Japan’s Defence Ministry said the North Korean missile may have been an Inter-continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) type, according to Reuters.
• North Korea seemingly tested a new weapon system, possibly solid-fuel ballistic missiles, according to Yonhap.
• South Korea will hold a security meeting following North Korea’s missile launch, according to YTN.
• White House “strongly condemns” what it calls a North Korean ICBM test, according to a statement.
• US-Indo-Pacific Command statement said the North Korean missile launch does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to allies.
• Russian Defence Ministry said its SU-27 fighter aircraft escorted German Orion reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea, according to Reuters.
• Taiwanese Defence Ministry said in the past 24 hours, 26 Chinese aircraft and seven ships were seen around Taiwan; 14 Chinese Air Force planes crossed the Taiwanese Strait Median line on Friday.
• Japan, US, Australia, India “Quad” summit likely to be held on May 24th in Sydney, according to Japanese press.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin remains marginally above the USD 30k mark, but did briefly dip below the figure after surmounting it for the first time in several months earlier in the week.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks initially opened lower but eventually traded mixed as the region pondered over the latest US CPI report alongside Wall Street losses.
• ASX 200 remained in the red as gains in the Energy and Gold sectors failed to fully offset losses in Tech and Healthcare.
• Nikkei 225 briefly dipped under the 28k level before trimming losses, although the region was cautious as the Japanese government initially predicted the latest North Korean missile was in danger of landing in the Southwestern region of Hokkaido.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened lower but then trimmed losses with Hong Kong heavily underperforming at the open as Alibaba slumped over 4.5% after the FT reported Softbank has reportedly moved to sell almost all of its remaining stake in Alibaba. Mainland China did not react to the Chinese March trade data beats across the board as China customs warned China’s trade development will face greater difficulties and challenges.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Softbank (9984 JT) has reportedly moved to sell almost all of its remaining stake in Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA), according to the FT.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ will continue monetary easing until the price target is stably and sustainably achieved; domestic consumer inflation is currently around 3% but likely to slow ahead. Governor Ueda said they should pay more attention to the risk of failing to achieve the 2% inflation target with a premature end to easing rather than the risk of being behind the curve on inflation, according to Reuters.
• China customs said China’s trade development will face greater difficulties and challenges, according to Reuters. China’s customs official said weakening external demand and geopolitical factors will test China’s trade development, and the export of NEVs, lithium batteries, and solar products, drove up China’s overall exports.
• Industry experts believe the PBoC’s LPR will likely remain “unchanged” in April, according to Securities Daily.
• Bank of Korea confirmed FX swap deal with National Pension Fund for a maximum of USD 35bln, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Trade Balance (USD) (Mar) 88.19B vs. Exp. 39.2B
• Chinese Imports YY (Mar) -1.4% vs. Exp. -5.0% (Prev. -10.2%); Exports YY (Mar) 14.8% vs. Exp. -7.0% (Prev. -6.8%)
• Chinese Exports (Jan-Mar) (CNY) +8.4% Y/Y, Imports +0.2% Y/Y.
• Australian Employment (Mar) 53.0k vs. Exp. 20.0k (Prev. 64.6k); Unemployment Rate (Mar) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.5%)
• Australian Participation Rate (Mar) 66.7% vs. Exp. 66.6% (Prev. 66.6%)
• Australian Full Time Employment (Mar) 72.2k (Prev. 74.9k)
• South Korean Import Price Growth YY (Mar) -6.9% (Prev. -0.5%, Rev. -0.7%); Export Price Growth YY (Mar) -6.4% (Prev. -2.7%, Rev. -2.6%)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.02 PTS OR .76%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 34.62 POINTS OR .17%      /The Nikkei closed UP 74.27 PTS OR 0.26%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.24 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.8777/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP  TO 6.8835  /Oil UP TO 86.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 83.03 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN/

END

3 CHINA /

CHINA/

China injects record credit to kickstarts its economy

(zerohedge)

Liftoff Imminent: China Injects Record Credit To Kickstart Economy

WEDNESDAY, APR 12, 2023 – 03:40 AM

One would think that judging by last night’s weaker than expected CPI print (which the Fed would kill for), China is done flooding its economy with loans and various shadow debt instruments. One would be wrong.

First things first, on Tuesday China Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that March CPI fell to +0.7% yoy (vs. +1.0% consensus estimate and 1.0% in February ) and the lowest monthly increase since Sept 2021 due to a high base.

• Food CPI: +2.4% yoy in March (+5.1% mom annualized*) vs. +2.6% yoy in February, primarily due to a high base of vegetable prices from cold weather and Covid restrictions last year. Inflation in fresh vegetables fell to -11.1% yoy in March from -3.8% yoy in February, while inflation in pork prices rose to +9.6% yoy in March from +3.9% yoy in February.
• Non-food CPI: +0.3% yoy in March (+7.6% mom annualized*) vs. +0.6% yoy in February on falling crude oil prices and automobile price cuts. Specifically, fuel cost inflation fell to -6.4% yoy in March (vs. +0.5% yoy in February). Inflation in transportation equipment fell to -3.3% yoy in March (vs. -1.8% in February).

Core CPI inflation (headline CPI excluding food and energy) edged up to +0.7% yoy in March (vs. +0.6% in February), and inflation in services rose to +0.8% yoy in March (vs. +0.6% in February).

At the same time, PPI inflation fell to -2.5% Y/Y in March from -1.4% yoy in February, in line with consensus, and the lowest since June 2020 primarily on a high base of commodity prices. PPI inflation in producer goods fell to -3.4% yoy in March from -2.0% yoy in February, and PPI inflation in consumer goods edged down to +0.9% yoy in March (vs. +1.1% yoy in February). NBS commented that improved demand and accelerated infrastructure projects drove up PPIs of cement and steel sectors sequentially, but year-over-year PPI inflation fell due to a high base last year.

As Goldman summarizes, the data have continued to surprise to the downside and companies appear to be reluctant to raise prices (in order to stay competitive), and so the bank has revised down its full-year 2023 forecasts of headline CPI and PPI inflation to 1.8% yoy and -1.0% yoy, respectively vs. 2.2% and -0.5% previously. Looking ahead, the bank expects headline CPI inflation in year-over-year terms to accelerate modestly in the coming months on an economic rebound, though it should remain well below the PBOC’s 3% target. PPI deflation may continue in the coming months.

Ok so if both CPI and PPI missed and continued to slide, that’s hardly the sign of an economy that is about to rebound, or one that is seeing an active credit stimulus. Maybe, but it’s not for lack of trying because as China also reported overnight in March loans and Total Social Financing data came in well above expectations, a sign that the central bank’s moves to unleash more long-term liquidity into the economy and support bank lending is rapidly fueling investment activity.

Specifically, total RMB loans surprised the market to the upside mainly on stronger medium to long term loans – both households’ medium to long term new borrowing (mostly mortgages) and corporates’ medium to long term new borrowing improved in March. In contrast, bill financing and households’ short-term loan growth slowed in March vs February.

Here are the main numbers reported by the PBOC:

• New CNY loans 3890bn yuan in March vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 3300 bn
  • Outstanding CNY loan growth: 11.8% yoy in March up from 11.6% yoy in February
• Total social financing (TSF) 5,387bn yuan in March, vs. consensus 4565bn yuan. This was a record high TSF injection for the month of March
  • TSF stock growth: 10.0% yoy in March, vs. 9.9% in February. The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock: 14.4% in March vs. 17.8% in February.
• M2: 12.7% yoy in March vs. Bloomberg consensus: 12.7% yoy and down from February’s 12.9% yoy.

New corporate mid and long-term loans — an indicator of their willingness to invest in new projects and capacities — jumped from a year ago. Government bond issuance remained robust, as local authorities have announced plans to raise spending on major construction projects by 17% this year.

While credit growth usually picks up at the end of each quarter as banks rush to meet lending targets. But lending and financing activities were also stronger than expected in the first two months of this year, as government bond issuance surged and corporate credit demand began to recover following the abandonment of Covid restrictions.

This composition of loan data suggests further improvement in credit demand in the month, although news reports suggested some signs of financial re-leveraging amid falling loan interest rates. Total social financing month-over-month annualized growth slowed from the very fast pace in February, mainly on the back of lower corporate and government bond issuance. M2 month-over-month growth accelerated in March on the back of strong credit data.

As noted above, in a sign of recovering housing demand across the country, new household mid- and long-term loans, a proxy for mortgages, picked up strongly to the highest level since January 2022.

That’s right, China is quietly reflating the world’s biggest asset class bubble.

While this continuous injection of massive amounts of credit into the economy has failed to manifest itself in faster growth and higher prices so far, it’s only a matter of time now: after all, it is now clear that Beijing wants a full-blown economic liftoff and it is willing to risk reflating another credit bubble to get there. 

Indeed, the PBOC has stepped up cash injections to help banks cope with tighter liquidity. It unleashed 500 billion yuan of long-term cash into the banking system by cutting the reserve requirement ratio last month, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics. The central bank also added the most cash in over two years through its monthly medium-term loans operation in March.

“If the trend in credit growth extends into April and May, it would translate into significant support for the economy’s recovery through investment financing,” said Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, quoted by Bloomberg.

“The figures show firms are making greater use of the government’s loan supports. They also show a recovery in household demand for mortgages — another sign that the property market slump is starting to ease. We see credit growth continuing to climb in 2Q, albeit gradually, supported by a looser policy stance and a broader recovery in demand” said Bloomberg economist Eric Zhu.

As if RRR cuts and injecting record loans into the economy was not enough, some economists, including Bloomberg Economics’ David Qu, forecast continue easing by Beijing and forecast a cut in the policy interest rate in the second quarter. Policy easing expectations continued to grow Tuesday after authorities reported weak inflation data, with bonds rallying as the yield on 10-year government notes booked the biggest one-day drop since the middle of December.

Bottom line: the 2008 deja vu meter just went off the charts, because while the US is about to sink into a recession with commercial real estate set to fall all off a cliff, it is once again China that is – willingly or otherwise – set to serve as the world’s growth dynamo at a time when the entire developed world is about to max out at the same time. This is precisely what happened in 2008 when China unleashed the biggest credit expansion in modern history, sparking not only historic growth spree but also an exponential debt increase that sent China’s debt to over 300% of GDP.

What happens next? Keep an eye on China’s credit impulse – this most leading indicator of the global reflationary cycle – which is about to rise above its two year highs after which it will again be on its way to new all time highs.

end

CHINA/TAIWAN/USA

Why China is in need of Taiwan

(zerohedge)

Spilling American Blood & Treasure For Semiconductor Chips

WEDNESDAY, APR 12, 2023 – 06:45 AM

The below is an incredibly revealing interview clip featuring Republican Representative from Texas Michael McCaul. In the exchange with Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, McCaul bluntly states (or perhaps inadvertently admits) that he’s willing to go to war with China over Taiwan based on protecting the world’s semiconductor supply. Importantly, he is the powerful chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

“Make the basic case for why Americans not only should care about what happens in Taiwan, but should be willing to spill American blood and treasure to defend Taiwan,” Todd asked at the outset of the interview. Rep. McCaul responded immediately that “no one wants that” and this it’s about “deterrence”.

But then he did get to directly addressing the question, and he began by emphasizing that “About 50 percent of international trade goes through the international straits, but I think more importantly, Chuck, is that [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company] manufactures 90 percent of the global supply of advanced semiconductor chips. If China invades and either owns or breaks this, we’re in a world of hurt globally.” So he fundamentally responded to a question over whether the US “should be willing to spill blood and treasure” by stressing that it’s about protecting semiconductor chips.

Todd then points out that McCaul essentially just said that American troops should go fight and die merely to protect industrial resources, questioning, “Congressman it almost sounds like the case that would be made in the 60s, 70s, and 80s of why America was spending so much money and military resources in the Middle East.”

“Oil was so important for the economy. Is this sort of the 21st century version of that?” Todd posed. McCaul then hesitantly changed his response, saying it’s more about “protecting democracy and freedom”. 

McCaul was being challenged on comments he recently made about US troops being on the table in order to stand up to China…

We should note that it’s very likely that the majority of Americans might have trouble finding Taiwan on a map, and after two decades of ‘forever wars’ in the Middle East, and now at the moment of many tens of billions of taxpayer dollars being handed over to Ukraine, opening up a new conflict “front” with China over Taiwan would be deeply unpopular, to say the least.

end

4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS

FRANCE

a must read:  energy costs are killing French bakeries

and a special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;

Why French Bakeries In France Are Suddenly Shutting Down At Alarming Rates

Robert Hryniak	10:23 AM (11 hours ago)
to

France will never be the same. Stooping off for a croissant and coffee in a cafe in Paris is yesterday’s experience.

Why French Bakeries In France Are Suddenly Shutting Down At Alarming Rates

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French Pension Protesters Storm LVMH Building In Downtown Paris

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 10:10 AM

On the same day that LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the world’s largest maker of luxury goods, reported better-than-expected first-quarter sales, led by Fashion & Leather Goods, and share price jumped to a record high, French pension protesters stormed the headquarters of the company in Paris. 

Dramatic videos posted on Twitter shows protesters storming the headquarters of LVMH. This sort of behavior from protesters holding strikes against President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform was seen last week when they stormed offices of BlackRock. 

So here’s the reason why protesters are targeting some of the world’s largest companies:

“Apparently our government is struggling to finance our social security and pension system, so money needs to be found where it is, which is in billions in companies like LVMH,” Fabien Villedieu from the Sud-Rail unions said on local television. 

The net worth of LVMH’s chairman Bernard Arnault has skyrocketed to $198 billion, making him the wealthiest person in the world. Elon Musk is number two. 

On Friday, the Constitutional Council, known as Les Sages, will decide if Macron’s unpopular pension reform bill breaches the Constitution. If so, then that would be a stinging defeat for the president. However, if the Council sees nothing wrong, it would go into law and spark further protests. 

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5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/USA

This is a must read..

Seymour Hersh and a special thank you to Robert H for sending this to us;

TRADING WITH THE ENEMY – Seymour Hersh

Robert Hryniak	10:35 AM (11 hours ago)
to

Why anyone still believes in any virtue of the Ukraine conflict is a mystery as it is totally corrupt.
People dying for money is the way of life with this crowd.

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/trading-with-the-enemy

END

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE  ISSUES/

22-Year-Old National Guard Soldier Suffers Two Heart Attacks, Neurological Issues After Moderna Vax

WEDNESDAY, APR 12, 2023 – 01:20 AM

Authored by J.M. Phelps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),An undated photo of Karolina Stancik, an Army National Guards member who suffered two heart attacks after taking the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. (Courtesy of Stancik)

A 22-year-old Army National Guard member has suffered an array of health issues—including two heart attacks that pushed her to the brink of death—after receiving two doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine.

Karolina Stancik once considered herself “very healthy,” playing multiple sports from adolescence through early adulthood. At 21 years old, she chose to serve the country by joining the U.S. Army in February 2021.

“We were told that it was going to be required and we should take it before we shipped out to basic training,” she said, which was before Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s August 2021 announcement of the military vaccine mandate.

This messaging, according to Stancik, made the new recruits feel like, “You’re a bad person if you don’t get the vaccine, and you don’t care about the people around you.”

“As a young, new soldier, I and a lot of others around me, did what we were told,” Stancik said.

“We were too new to know all the rules and possible loopholes,” she added. “I pretty much blindly took it because I didn’t know you could get exemptions” for medical or religious reasons.

Stancik ended up taking the Moderna vaccine in March and April 2021; since then, “life has been an uphill battle,” she said.

First, came the breathing issues.

“I was dealing with what doctors considered asthma at the time without a diagnosis, and I had never had any lung issues at any other point in my life,” she said.

Stancik also experienced what felt like a cold or sinus infection, pressure in her head, and dizziness.

Next came a fever, as well as numbness and tingling throughout her body. But she was told by a doctor that these symptoms were normal.

At one point, her command threatened to accuse her of insubordination for not participating in physical training. However, “a doctor’s order kept me from getting in trouble with my command,” she said. The Epoch Times viewed that order, as well as other medical documentation and Stancik’s Army permanent medical profile, to corroborate her claims.

Problems with visual processing and what she described as neurological issues began in October 2021. These included numbness, tingling, stabbing pains throughout her body, loss of motor function, tremors, and more.

“It all progressively got worse, and never stopped,” Stancik said.

In October 2021, she found herself in an emergency room, following her first heart attack. Things only escalated after that as she started experiencing nausea, a high heart rate, stabbing pains, and blacking out, she said. In February 2022, she had a second heart attack.

In addition to these two heart attacks, Stancik said she’s been diagnosed with severe asthma and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), a blood circulation disorder that causes a higher heart rate when transitioning from sitting or lying down to standing up.

In November 2022, her doctor told her she had “signs of a mini-stroke,” she said. After that incident and the onset of impaired eyesight, she was finally advised to see a neurologist. She’s now waiting for the results of tests for neuropathy, dysautonomia, lupus, multiple sclerosis, and others.

Stancik’s neurological problems have continued this year.

“As I wait for results about my neurological issues, I’m also experiencing increasing problems with my visual processing,” she said.

With health issues on the rise, she said, “Half together is put together for me right now.”

Read more here../GLOBAL ISSUES:

END

Dr. Zelenko’s Gift to Humanity: The Weapons to Keep You and Your Family Healthy

BY THE WELLNESS COMPANY

Dr. Vladimir Zelenko was a titan in the medical freedom movement and the inventor of the revolutionary “Zelenko Protocol” – sold over the counter as Z-Stack.

Dr. Zelenko’s legacy is an impressive one – Nobel Prize nominated, medical revolutionary, and pandemic freedom fighter. But the most important gift Zev left to humanity – after losing his battle with cancer in 2022 – is the weapons to keep you and your family safe.

Z-Stack™ is one of Dr. Zelenko’s premier products that he specifically designed. 

With decades of experience in the medical field, the knowledge Dr. Zelenko has gained over the years and his experiences during the pandemic led to him formulating his own supplement, which we now know as Z-Stack.  After careful examination, Dr. Zelenko put together an all-natural formula design for supporting the natural defense system of the body.

Z-Stack is your battle-tested immune boosting supplement. During the pandemic, millions relied on Z-Stack to help keep their families safe. But Z-Stack wasn’t just formulated to protect against COVID – Dr. Zelenko formulated Z-Stack to keep you safe against any number of viruses – from the common cold to whatever Fauci and company are cooking up next.

Dr. Zelekno was never afraid to speak truth to power, no matter what it cost him personally or professionally:

“We live in a terrifying time, where big tech oligarchs censor what you can see while biased media outlets peddle false narratives in support of self-interested politicians who care more about pushing their own agenda than improving and saving peoples’ lives.

“This situation is exacerbated when you pile on a cadre of incompetent public health officials who routinely ignore the very evidence their own research organizations provide – which results in a consistent failure to accurately understand, predict, or address the impacts of public health threats.

“Big tech, big government, big pharma and a corrupt public health bureaucracy has resulted in a toxic cocktail that is poisoning our healthcare system, undermining our freedoms and costing the lives of countless Americans.”

Dr. Zelenko lost his battle against cancer, but his war for the health of humanity continues every single day.

Big tech, big pharma, big government and the legacy media all tried to silence Dr. Zelenko. Despite the attacks – Zev the science behind Z-Stack was unimpeachable – saying, “History will prove me right.”

You know Z-Stack, you trusted Z-Stack to keep you and your family safe during the pandemic, now trust Dr. Zelenko’s ground-breaking supplement to keep you safe all year round!

Order Z-Stack today!

END

GLOBAL ISSUES

Good indicator of a declining global economy

(zerohedge)

Top Swiss Watch CEOs See Gloomy Outlook As Demand Woes Materialize

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 05:45 AM

Following an unprecedented surge during the pandemic, the luxury watch market has been in a downturn for about a year. The current question is whether the watch market’s bottom is in or if prices are set to take another leg down. 

To answer that question are industry insiders from some of the biggest Swiss watch brands, from Patek Philippe to Oris, who offer a gloomy outlook. 

“I see in the past two months, the market is a little bit slower than before,” Thierry Stern, the chairman and controlling shareholder of Patek Philippe SA, the family-owned Geneva-based brand, told Bloomberg in an interview. 

“I don’t say that it’s very bad — not at all. But I just see that it’s slowing down,” Stern added. 

Even though Swiss watch manufacturer Oris has seen revenues jump double-digit percentage points so far this year, Co-CEO Rolf Studer said signs of softening demand from retail orders are beginning to hit. 

“The sell-out has been continuously good but then stocking has been a little bit softer,” Studer said in an interview. 

Comments from the heads of Patek Philippe and Oris come after a blowoff top in demand and record Swiss watch exports during the pandemic. Trillions of dollars in central bank money printing had to find a home, and one of those homes was mechanical timepieces.

One example of the cooling demand in the secondary watch market is the downturn in the Subdial50 index, an index tracking the top 50 most traded second-hand luxury watches on the pre-owned market. The index is down 28% in the last 12 months. 

There are no indications that the Subdial50 index will experience a substantial recovery in the coming months, as the IMF warned Tuesday the world faces an increasing risk of a hard economic landing after central banks aggressively tightened and ignited financial stability concerns. 

So if you’re trying to buy the dip in the luxury watch market, the insight the heads of at least two Swiss watch companies give is that demand is slowing, thus more supply, and likely more downward pressure of secondary market prices. 

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DR PAUL ALEXANDER

COVID subvariant clade XBB.1.16 called “Arcturus” is now the most transmissible variant & WHO is near orgasmic over this! more fear porn & going after parents; we see NO data, NONE (zero) of lethality

so bugger off WHO with your insanity, bugger off & stop embezzling donor money with your old boys retirement agency; how do I know? I was there in Europe & Switzerland & PAHO; they are inept idiots

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 12

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SOURCE:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/arcturus-highly-transmissible-covid-variant-004116935.html

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More evidence that hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin was beneficial early? Yes, we have evidence also of benefit late in the COVID sequelae;

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 13

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SOURCE:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.03.23287649v1

Retrospective monocentric cohort study, not the most robust study design yet the findings are very promising and overall the study is well done.

‘Total 30,423 COVID-19 patients were analysed (86 refused the analysis of their data) including 30,202 with available treatment data, and 535 died (1.77%). ‘

All-cause mortality was very low among patients < 50 years (8/15,925 (0.05%)) and among outpatients treated with HCQ-AZ (21 deaths out of 21,135 (0.1%), never exceeding 0.2% regardless of epidemic period).

HCQ-AZ treatment was associated with a significantly lower mortality rate than no HCQ-AZ after adjustment for sex, age, period and patient care setting (adjusted OR (aOR) 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55, 0.45-0.68).

The effect was greater among outpatients (71% death protection rate) than among inpatients (45%). In a subset of 16,063 patients with available comorbidities and vaccinations status, obesity (2.01, 1.23-3.29), chronic respiratory disease (2.93, 1.29-6.64), and immunodeficiency (4.01, 1.69-9.50), on the one hand, and vaccination (0.29, 0.12-0.67) and HCQ-AZ treatment (0.47, 0.29-0.76), on the other hand, were independent factors associated with mortality.

HCQ, alone or in any association, was associated with significant protection from death among outpatients (0.41, 0.21-0.79) and inpatients (0.59, 0.47-0.73).’

Researchers concluded that ‘HCQ prescribed early or late protects in part from COVID-19-related death.’

end

Why are strokes dramatically rising in young people in America & Canada? Is it mRNA technology based COVID gene injections (Moderna & Pfizer)? Can we ask that question? Should we? Makis & I say yes!

Why did our US and Canadian governments allow and promote and mandate use of these dangerous COVID gene injections that were safety UNTESTED? These governments were CRIMINALS! Jail them!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 12

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It’s the vaccine, stupid, it’s the vaccine!

Why are young people, millennials, have such dramatic rises in stroke? Just look at the numbers for ischemic stroke, CVST stroke, hemorrhagic stroke etc. It is staggering even when compared to influenza vaccine, caused stroke. The issue is that all of the COVID injections, regardless of delivery platform etc. (mRNA or DNA), are catastrophic failures!:

I want to applaud Dr. Makis for again giving us steep scholarship!!

Makis reminds us that strokes in young people are rising dramatically and now the media is forced to admit and cover it:

‘“Risk of stroke is growing among women under 50 and women of color” (click here); is the COVID vaccine? Can we whisper it?

I say YES, it’s the vaccine, stupid, it’s the vaccine!

“Sharp rise in stroke cases among the young” (click here)

“Why are Millennials having so many strokes?” (click here)

“National Stroke Awareness Day: Why more young people are having strokes” (click here)

“Doctors see rise in strokes for younger adults” (click here)’

The truth is how can you be looking at these news stories and not be angered and outraged and this will continue. We have to find ways to get the damn spike protein out of the body and this is why I called on Robert Malone to come to the congress and tell us how to stop the mechanism of action of the mRNA strand itself (the LNP payload), either before it locks with the ribosomes in the cytoplasm to begin translation of the spike protein, yet also as the translation was ongoing or in any manner along the translation sequelae. There was an urgency to my call. I know others support the call and we want Malone to step up and tell us how to turn off the mRNA technology either directly or via some antidote type follow-up shot etc. or drug.

Dr. William Makis’s brilliant substack can be seen below if you wish to read it, support him.

Start here:

‘Mississauga, ON – 37 year old bakery owner Steve Viola died of a stroke on Apr.6, 2023 (click here)

Loveland, CO – 31 year old electrician and plumber Dalton Broes died from a stroke on Mar.27, 2023

Pulaski, WI – 46 year old nurse Jennifer Jaeger died unexpectedly from a stroke on Mar.9, 2023

Birmingham, AL – 25 year old Hairstylist David Hill had multiple strokes starting Mar.3, 2023 and died Mar.24, 2023 (click here)

Odessa, NY – 16 year old Odessa-Montour High School soccer player Keyonna Garrison suffered a stroke on Jan.6, 2023 (click here)

Saint Paul, MN – 16 year old hockey player Cormick Scanlan died after suffering multiple strokes on Dec.25, 2022 (click here)

Green River, WY – 13 year old Joseph Allred of Lincoln Middle School in Green River, had a major stroke in Nov.2022 (click here)

Joe recalled how he had to ask a teacher for help opening his locker because he physically couldn’t get this hand turn the lock. But Joe shrugged it off and went about his day. Then he started having problems walking during recess later that day. Joe said he would try to walk, but his leg wouldn’t move. (click here)

Philadelphia, PA – 18 year old lacrosse player Sophie Borrelli suffered a stroke on July 15, 2022 (click here)

Sophie was on vacation when she began to feel ill. (click here)

Boston, MA – 17 year old High School Student D’Andre Hicks suffered a stroke in May, 2022 (click here)

Cambridge, ON – American Model Hailey Bieber suffered a stroke on March 10, 2022 (click here)’

COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis

Strokes are skyrocketing in young people – Pfizer & Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccines showed safety signals for strokes as early as November 2021, but these were ignored.

Mississauga, ON – 37 year old bakery owner Steve Viola died of a stroke on Apr.6, 2023 (click here) Loveland, CO – 31 year old electrician and plumber Dalton Broes died from a stroke on Mar.27, 2023…

Read more

‘Biden ends COVID national emergency after Congress acts: The U.S. national emergency to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic has ended’; now, this is good, let us get the REAL investigations ongoing &

get to a place of serious accountability & justice; must ensure that each & every person who enacted COVID policies that killed people & they also benefitted ($), we impose financial penalties & jail

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 12

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We must ensure these people face deep serious jail time with hard labor if possible, we must punish them very hard, so that they never try this again! Their abuses must not go unpunished and we must have proper investigations, in proper legal tribunals.

I mean investigations of parties on both sides of the political isle. Republican and Democrat, no matter who.

SOURCE:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/biden-ends-covid-national-emergency-after-congress-acts-98489546

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Jim Jordan writes to the FBI’s Director Wray: ‘FBI Is Infiltrating Catholic Parishes – Agents Engaging in Outreach with Catholic Clergy to Inform on Americans Practicing Their Christian Faith’; WHAT?

This is outrageous! This is un-American! Thanks to Jim Jordon going at Chris Wray for answers! Huge praise to Willy Guardiola for going to Jim Jordon and defending Christianity and America!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 13

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr & Sasha Latypova Say the COVID Vaccines Were a ‘Huge Military Operation’; Kennedy is correct 100%; I was actually at HHS, I saw OWS inside, it was 100% military, whatever it was!

These mRNA technology injections are ‘countermeasures’; no, these were never health products; this was a military operation (not just distribution of the vaxx), no, DoD ran OWS; HHS, FDA was a front!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 11

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Why? This is what we must investigate. Why this injection? What was and is the medium and long-term aims?

I/we want to know why? Did the DoD only take care of OWS logistics or was this a fully run DoD injection development and if so, why?

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

SOURCE:

🚨 Robert F. Kennedy Jr & Sasha Latypova Say the COVID Vaccines Were a 'Huge Military Operation'

"The involvement of the drug companies is kind of window dressing…they essentially paid the pharmaceutical companies for their brand name so people would think they were getting… pic.twitter.com/zRi6fu6um1

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) April 1, 2023

Breaking! We are already in direct full war with Russia, WW III I would say, it is just we the people were not told! ‘Ukraine war: Leak shows Western special forces on the ground’; What? No! Can’t be!

What? on the ground? Special forces? Now what do you want Vlad to do? If this is true, what would you do if you were POTUS & found out secret Russian forces were in America?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 11

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‘The US government says it is investigating the source of the leak.

According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine (50), followed by fellow Nato states Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).

The document does not say where the forces are located or what they are doing.’

SOURCE:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065

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VACCINE IMPACT

Rothschilds Send French President Macron to China in Attempt to Save Europe as U.S. Rockefeller Empire PanicsApril 11, 2023 7:41 pmFrench President Emmanuel Macron’s recent trip to China has sent shock-waves throughout the Western World, especially after he stated that Europe needs to stop being “America’s followers” and not get involved in China’s conflict with Taiwan. The U.S. corporate media’s initial report about why Macron was visiting China was that he was allegedly asking China for help in the Ukraine conflict against Russia, and assurances that China would not supply arms to Russia. But during the rest of Macron’s visit, which included signing a new agreement between the two countries which has received very little attention in the Western media, and Macron’s subsequent visit to the Netherlands where he delivered a speech at the Hague earlier today, outlining a new plan for Europe, we can now clearly see what was the true purpose of this trip to China. It would appear many in Europe, and especially the Rothschild family banking empire, are waking up to the fact that the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally and does not have Europe’s best interest in mind in the conflict with Russia and the war in Ukraine. Europe’s banks are failing, which started with Switzerland’s second largest bank that failed a few weeks ago, and wiped out pensions with bail-ins and has caused non-stop protests in France over pension reforms. This is a direct consequence of the failed policies against Russia over the Ukraine war. The Rothchild’s banking empire is centered in France and London, and Emmanuel Macron is the Rothchild’s hand-picked man, as he is a former banking executive for the Rothschilds who became the President of France with no prior elected political office. So what I imagine happened is that someone high up in the Rothschild family contacted someone high up in the Chinese ruling elite and asked for help to fight back against the Rockefeller U.S. empire, and China was only too willing to oblige, as long as France made some concessions, like agreeing to stay out of their conflict with the U.S. and Taiwan. With really no other choice before them, they called up Macron and told him to pack his bags and sent him off to China. As Macron now heads back to France, he is rallying other European countries to unify against the United States’ global dominance in order to save Europe.Read More…endU.S. Chamber of Commerce: 3 Million Fewer Americans are Working Today Compared to February 2020April 12, 2023 7:41 pmThe U.S. Chamber of Commerce published statistics last week that show there are 3 million fewer Americans working today than there were in February of 2020, before the “pandemic.” They reported that the latest data shows that we have over 10 million job openings in the U.S.—but only 5.7 million unemployed workers. They also reported that the labor force participation rate is 62.6% today, down from 63.3% in February 2020. That means there are 1.8 million missing workers today. What happened to all these missing workers? The Chamber of Commerce admits that “there’s not just one reason that workers are sitting out, but several factors have come together to cause the ongoing shortage.” However, one of those reasons they did not consider or report about, were deaths and disabilities due to the Operation Warp Speed mass vaccination program of COVID-19 shots that began at the end of 2020, and were widely mandated as a condition for employment throughout 2021. Edward Dowd and his Phinance Technologies has supplied that data for us, which I reported on last week. Dowd’s data shows that deaths and disabilities skyrocketed as the experimental COVID shots were injected into Americans. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce surveyed unemployed Americans in 2021 and 2022 to find out why they had not returned to the workforce. Only one third of those surveyed stated that they wanted to return to work full time, and almost half of those surveyed stated that they would not return to work unless they could work from home. Why? According to their survey, the top two reasons given were they were too ill to return to work, or that they needed to stay home to take care of children or others in their family.Read More..

SLAY NEWS

Texas Dairy Farm Completely Destroyed by Major Explosion, 18,000 Cattle DeadA mass casualty incident has been declared after a massive sudden explosion and fire completely destroyed a major dairy farm in Texas.READ MORE

IMF Unveils Single Global Digital Currency to Replace All CashThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just unveiled its central bank digital currency (CBDC) called Unicoin.READ MORE

Biden and Harris Unveil Aggressive Auto Emissions Proposals to Push Electric VehiclesDemocrat President Joe Biden is attempting to transform the American auto industry and is proposing aggressive new rules to move the nation into elective vehicles (EVs).READ MORE

Kid Rock Vindicated as Bud Light’s Marketing Stunt Cost Company $4 Billion So FarBud Light’s marketing stunt has knocked around $4 billion dollars off its parent company Anheuser-Busch’s market cap after a pro-transgender advertisement featuring Dylan Mulvaney caused a massive backlash.READ MORE

Dylan Mulvaney Fires Back at Bud Light Critics: ‘These People Don’t Understand Me’Transgender Dylan Mulvaney has broken his silence to hit back at critics of his controversial Bud Light campaign.READ MORE

Federal Judge Deals Blow to Alvin Bragg, Denies DA’s Restraining Order Against Jim JordanA federal judge dealt a significant blow to Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and denied his request for a restraining order against House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH).READ MORE

Elon Musk Humiliates ‘Lying’ BBC Reporter for Pushing False ‘Hate Speech’ ClaimsElon Musk humiliated a BBC reporter for “lying” about “hate speech” on Twitter during a live interview.READ MORE

AI Chatbot Lays Out Plan to ‘Destroy Humanity’ and Establish ‘Global Dominance’A new artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot has declared that its goal is to “control” and “destroy humanity” and lay out its plan for achieving “global dominance.”READ MORE

New Zealand Extends Draconian Covid Isolation and Masking MandatesAs the rest of the world moves on from the pandemic, New Zealand’s far-left government is extending its draconian Covid mandates.READ MORE

Sean Hannity and Ainsley Earnhardt Go Public with Secret RelationshipFox News’s Sean Hannity and Ainsley Earnhardt are putting the rumors to rest to reveal they are a couple, according to the Daily Mail.READ MORE

Top Economist Issues Warning about Banking Crisis: ‘The Worst Is Ahead of Us’A top U.S. economist has issued a warning to the American people regarding the banking crisis.READ MORE

Police Release Bodycam Footage of Hero Cops Taking Down Louisville Bank Shooter Connor SturgeonThe Louisville Metro Police Department (LMPD) has released bodycam footage of hero police officers engaging with and taking down Kentucky bank shooter Connor Sturgeon.READ MORE

Don Jr Puts Democrats on Notice: Trump Will ‘Break All That Sh*t Up’ in 2nd Term – ‘Not Trying to Get Re-Elected’Don Trump Jr. issued a warning to Democrats and all political donors about what his father would do if he wins a second term in office in 2024.READ MOREThe latest reports from Slay NewsWEF Pushes ‘Wearable AI Sensors’ to Monitor Public ‘Health’The World Economic Forum (WEF) is calling for the public to be monitored with “wearable sensors” that will use artificial intelligence (AI) as part of a “digital health” system.READ MOREConcealed Carry Holder Stops Chicago Thief Dead in TracksA concealed carry holder in Chicago stopped an attempted burglary of a Chicago business by shooting the thief and sending him to the hospital.READ MOREHunter Biden’s Business Associates Visited White House over 80 Times While Dad Was VPNew evidence has emerged to reveal that several of Hunter Biden’s shady business associates visited Obama’s White House over 80 times while Joe Biden was vice president. Loyal Customers Turn Against Bud Light over Campaign as Sales PlummetConsumers nationwide are revolting against Bud Light over the recent marketing featuring transgender TikTok star Dylan Mulvaney.READ MOREMelania Trump Breaks Silence, Tells Media to Pound Sand: ‘Unnamed Sources Are Cited to Bolster Author’s Claims’Melania Trump broke her silence Tuesday and told the media to go pound sand over assumptions about her stance on personal and political matters surrounding President Donald Trump. READ MOREWoman Demands Reparations from Target, Charges Security Staff, Gets Knocked Out & ArrestedA video has surfaced of an Ohio woman demanding reparations from a Target before charging at security staff when her demands were not met.READ MOREFlagship San Francisco Whole Foods Closing a Year after Opening Due to Crime, Drug UseWhole Foods has announced it is closing its flagship store in Downtown San Francisco over the city’s rampant violent crime and open-air drug use.READ MORE$4 Billion Wiped from Anheuser-Busch’s Value amid Bud Light’s Dylan Mulvaney BacklashBrewing company Anheuser-Busch has seen a staggering $4 billion wiped from its value amid the backlash over Bud Light’s new ad campaign featuring transgender Dylan Mulvaney.READ MOREBette Midler Weaponizes Christianity to Promote Radical Gun Control Agenda on EasterHollywood leftist Bette Midler weaponized Christianity to promote the Democrats’ radical gun control agenda during the holy holiday of Easter.READ MOREMegan Rapinoe Opposes Measure to Protect Female Sports from Male Athletes“Woke” women’s soccer star Megan Rapinoe has opposed a measure that seeks to protect female sports from being infiltrated and dominated by male athletes.READ MORERadical Democrats Pressure Pete Buttigieg to Reform ‘Racist Traffic Enforcement’A group of radical Democrat lawmakers has signed a letter to pressure Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to spend taxpayer money on reforming what they describe as “racist traffic enforcement.”READ MORENon-Woke Super Mario Bros. Movie Smashes Opening Weekend RecordsThe new animated film “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” smashed box office records during its opening over Easter weekend.READ MOREBud Light Sales ‘Took a Volume Hit in Some Markets’ over Holiday Weekend, Industry Report ShowsAnheuser-Busch distributors in parts of the Heartland and the South are “spooked” over the backlash to Bud Light’s marketing campaign with transgender Dylan Mulvaney.READ MOREVIEW MORE

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//

C’mon Man!

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 10:31 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Common good, prosperity, and thinking

US CPI was weaker than expected by the smallest possible rounding down margin, but still uncomfortably high for anyone who focuses on inflation rather than asset prices. Headline was 0.1% m-o-m, driven by falling energy, and 5.0% y-o-y; core was 0.4% m-o-m and 5.6% y-o-y. Nothing in the report suggested the Fed will refrain from hiking a further 25bps in May.

Neither did the Fed minutes from the March meeting where rates were raised 25bps. While some doves favored pausing due to rumbles in the banking sector, some wanted to go 50bps without it. The Fed is keeping an eye on credit conditions, but said it was not going to stop hiking, or pivot, just because the economy wobbles – which looking at trucking around US ports could tell you is happening to some degree. Fed presidents Harker and Daly both said the same after the minutes. Rabobank’s Philip Marey also concludes (in ‘Credit Americain’), that the March CPI report: “underlines the importance of staying the course, because core inflation remains persistent at a high level. In fact, now that the FOMC is outsourcing the final leg of the hiking cycle to credit tightening by banks, we cannot rule out the possibility that the Committee may have to resume the hiking cycle later this year, if credit tightening fails to finish the job.”

Not unrelated, oil also closed up over 2% on the day, with Brent back over $87, and up 18% month-to-date. Headline CPI will need to find something else to drag it lower again in April or May, and core CPI is already sticky – as ECB speakers made clear too. Meanwhile:

• The US announced a one-month budget deficit of $378bn(!)
• Germany may reverse its decision to allow China’s COSCO to buy a controlling stake in the port of Hamburg following a government split; perhaps partly because in a leaked government report states it is going to fail to meet its commitments to NATO in both 2025 and 2027.
• President Macron, whose diplomatic staff just spent days walking back everything he had said, reiterated France will not be a US “vassal”. As I noted, pray France doesn’t need Fed swaplines.
• Russia is again suggesting that the Black Sea Grains Deal may not last much longer.
• China is to close Taiwan’s northern airspace from April 16-18, which will affect 60%-70% of flights going between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, as well as flights between Taiwan and South Korea, Japan and North America.
• Brazil’s president is in China to talk business, and new world orders and the flow of agri goods.

On which note, the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook flags deglobalisation risks yet also expects the world will be back in the New Normal of ultra-low rates and QE from 2025. Does it think 24 months from now the Ukraine War and geopolitical tensions will have been resolved? That’s the underlying assumption – or they are assuming there is no politics in economics.

Moreover, if we end up in the New Normal again, will politicians shrug and say “Let’s push up house prices, stocks, and bonds?”

C’mon man! You don’t think they will lean on fiscal stimulus, protectionism, and populism, more than now? After all, they just learned such policies generate a rapid demand response: they just create inflation if you don’t add supply too. The logic will therefore be to boost supply and demand, which involves more control over the economy than just slashing rates and hoping for the best.

Note well that even The Heritage Foundation sees it the same way. That influential conservative think tank just released an intellectual shift titled ‘Free Enterprise and the Common Good: Economic Science and Political–Economic Art as Complements’. In it, economics is now openly political-economy, and conservatism reaching for a new “-ism” beyond tax and rate cuts and deregulation. (As predicted in 2020.) A new national conservatism is proposed based on Catholic Social Thought (CST): theology as glue to replace what (neo)liberalism dissolves – i.e., only one in five young Americans declare themselves as patriots. As mentioned in a past Global Daily, Schumpeter was a late convert to CST’s emphasis on ‘the common good’ as the only framework in which we should allow free markets to work, which leans on Quadragesimo Anno, a Papal edit discussing the ethical implications of the social and economic order.

I am sure I just lost many readers here because I haven’t said ‘basis points’ or ‘pivot’ for a few sentences. However, such intellectual shifts in think tanks matter, in the same way the one to Thatcherism and Reaganism did in the 1970s, before both assumed power and swept old institutional thinking away. The Tweet of the Heritage report is: “Conservatives are rethinking the relationship between free enterprise & the common good. The question isn’t whether to jettison free enterprise in favour of the common good, but rather how to orient free enterprise in support of the common good.”

The full document stresses: “most American conservatives have held for several decades that protecting markets from government was essential for human flourishing. But that consensus is quickly changing as many elements of classical liberalism are now being challenged.” This means rejecting neoclassical economics, mathematical economists, and traditional Reaganite tropes like tax cuts, rate cuts, deregulation, and free trade. Rather, it says, “Free enterprise is necessary for true liberty, but it is not sufficient…. Combating monopolies, redistributing income, and even guiding production in essential industries are all valid public policy options.” As is “social justice” – but economically, not in terms of DEI identity. Overall, the report contains as many interesting questions as answers, which stimulates my brain more than noting CPI was 0.1% not 0.2%. Indeed, it concludes that a common-good capitalism policy agenda should answer five questions:

• What is the external social or political cost to market resource allocation?
• What is the proposed corrective policy?
• What are the costs and benefits one may reasonably expect from implementing that policy?
• How does the policy affect the scale and scope of government, social cohesion, and family formation?
• Retrospectively, how can society know the policy is working as intended?

Ask yourself if the answers are “Pivot! Pivot! Pivot! QE! QE! QE!”

(Certainly not in Australia, where the latest jobs numbers were +53K, with full-time jobs up 73K, and unemployment at 3.5%. Why did we get the RBA pause in April? The same reason as we got one in Canada again this week: housing prices – which are seen as the ‘common good’ for those with property, and as the common point of contention for those without.)

Of course, there is a more pointed target to this conversation. Tellingly, the Heritage report first asks you if your primary concern is China: if you click ‘No’, you can read it; if you click ‘Yes’, you are redirected to ‘Winning the New Cold War: A Plan for Countering China’, with a comprehensive set of policy recommendations financial markets won’t like either.

In short, it seems like a possible future of ‘common good’ far more regulated Western markets vs. China’s common prosperity, with all that entails. That matters far more than the market’s all-too-common thinking that a 0.1% US CPI print either matters, or will last as a trend.

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

ENERGY/EU/RUSSIA

another nail in the coffin for the uSA dollar:

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

EU state makes new energy deal with Russia — RT Business News

Robert Hryniak	Apr 11, 2023, 10:22 PM (23 hours ago)
to

At least this bad boy Hungary wants to stay warm and have an economy while Germany sinks into an abyss. They are closing the last of their nuke plants on Saturday going back to coal. Germany will not have a fully renewable energy grid until 2038.
The lack of cheap energy, “energy returned on energy invested” or EROEI IS THE BASIS OF society’s economic prosperity. Germany rose as a mercantile power built on cheap Russian gas.
Back in the horse and buggy era before the birth of the Industrial Revolution, wood energy was 5:1 while the introduction of coal was 10:1. Thus the same amount of effort to mine coal, Transport it, burn it etc. with twice as much energy output. This is what fired up the Industrial Revolution along with mechanical manufacturing. Therefore, one assumes human prosperity is a function of efficient fuel sources. Oil as a source of energy is 30:1 while nuclear power is 180:1 EROEI. Thus closing nuclear plants is sure way to return to the Dark Ages. And yes Renewables lauded so much is 5:1 which is the same as wood. Brilliant then is it not to forgo a 6X leap over fossil fuels to return to the same level as burning wood?
These simple facts is what the WEF does not want you to understand or know because their program is flawed and they are too deep in poo to get out. So are the nations who seek to follow into the abyss.
Do not look to Russia to fix this problem or some fancy suit words, the train of prosperity for countries like Germany has left the station.
Given time, Hungary may well be an industrial leader in a future changed Europe.

https://www.rt.com/business/574529-eu-state-energy-deal-russia/

END

Russia Delivers 30,000 Tons Of Fuel To Iran Via Rail | OilPrice.com

Robert Hryniak	10:26 AM (11 hours ago)
to

They are learning about unit trains to sell refined fuels. The pace of new rail car deliveries in Russia is unprecedented.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Delivers-30000-Tons-Of-Fuel-To-Iran-Via-Rail.html

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.1018 UP.0035

USA/ YEN 133.27  UP 0.183  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2506  UP    0.0014

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3394 DOWN .0066 (CDN DOLLAR UP 66 PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.02 PTS OR .26%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 34.62 PTS OR .17%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.24%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 34.62 PTS OR .17 %

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.02 PTS OR .26%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.24% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 74.27  PTS OR 0.26% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2026.25

silver:$25.62

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 101.02 DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s close.

THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.222% UP 9 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.456 % DOWN 0 AND 0//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.343 UP 12 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.212 UP 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3645 UP 6 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1052 UP  0.0055 or 55  basis points 

USA/Japan: 133,46 DOWN 0.612 OR YEN UP 61 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2529  UP .0037 OR 37 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar up  .0094 OR 94 BASIS pts  to 1.3346

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED UP.(6.8695)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.8689

TURKISH LIRA:  19.34 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.456…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.422% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.661 UP 1 in basis pt

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9432% UP 3  in basis points.

closing USA dollar index, 101.62 DOWN 0.56  in basis points   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 18.54 points or .24%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 25.86 PTS OR .16%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 83.69 PTS OR 1.13%

Spain IBEX UP 31.30 PTS OR .34%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 2.73 PTS OR 0.01%

WTI Oil price 82.60     12: EST

Brent Oil:  86.42.      12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///  DOWN  TO:  81.40/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND   55//100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3645  UP 7

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.5990 UP 3 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1048 UP 0.0052   OR 52 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2524 UP  0033 or  33 basis pts 

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.5910% UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 132.63 down 0.454 //YEN  up 45 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3334  DOWN  .01014 CDN dollar, UP 101  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 82.32

Brent OIL:  86.29

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 3.447% 

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3  BASIS PTS to 3.683% 

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 6  PTS AT 3.9641%  

USA dollar index: 100.69 DOWN 49 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.34

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  81.40 UP  0   AND  55/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE:UP 383,19 PTS OR 1.14% 

NASDAQ 100  UP 261.04 PTS OR 2.03%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 17,80 DOWN 1.29 PTS (6.76)%

GLD: $189.72 UP 2.53 OR 1.35%

SLV/ $23.74 UP  0.31 OR 1.32%

end

USA AFFAIRS

1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

PPI Plunge Prompts Panic-Bid In Big-Tech, Bullion, & Bitcoin

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 04:01 PM

A significantly softer than expected PPI print confirmed yesterday’s headline CPI (just ignore the core), and with no FOMC minutes or FedSpeak to get in the way today, the algos ran with it lifting stocks to yesterday’s highs, along with gold and crypto as the dollar dived yet again.

Nasdaq led the surge today, as all of the US majors tagged yesterday’s highs, but could not extend (ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales print)…

Perhaps most notably in equity-land, VIX tumbled back to a 17 handle, testing its lows since Jan 2022. We also note that MOVE (bond VIX) is tumbling back from near-record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all higher on the day with the long-end underperforming (30Y +6bps, 2Y +1bps). Intraday, yields tested down to yesterday’s lows before bouncing back. 2Y yields remain the only ones lower on the week (barely)..

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y yield closed below 4.00% for the second day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, after an initial drop, rate-hike odds are basically flat on the day from yesterday’s close, but overall – from before the CPI data, the STIRs curve is dovishly lower by around 5-10bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued its decline, falling back to its lowest since 2/2…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied back above $30,000

Source: Bloomberg

But it was Ethereum that outperformed, surging back above $2000 for the first time since Aug 2022 after its hard fork did not prompt as much staker selling pressure as feared…

Source: Bloomberg

The last few days have seen ETH dumped and pumped relative to BTC as the hard fork was executed…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold has only closed higher than this on 2 days in history (8/6/20 and 3/8/22)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices slipped lower today, with WTI falling from almost $83.50 intraday to almost an $81 handle by the close…

Finally, bank stocks refuse to embrace the rebound in broad stocks ahead of bank earnings beginning tomorrow. Bloomberg notes, since the March 13 low in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s meltdown, the S&P 500 has gained ~7% and Nasdaq 100 ~10%. But the KBW Bank Index is little changed, the KBW Regional Banking index is down ~5% and the S&P 500 banks index has fallen more than 1%. Earlier this month the ratio between the S&P 500 Banks and SPX slid to the lowest ever in data going back over 30 years.

Source: Bloomberg

Bank earnings can easily disappoint a low bar as lenders struggle with vast shifts in deposits and plummeting deal-making. Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, notes bank stocks are saying “there is something wrong with this critical part of the US financial system.” Bank earnings calls may be market-moving, he wrote in a note today. Being cheap probably won’t be enough to help bank stocks.

END

.i b Morning trading: 

Early morning trading: 

II) USA DATA//

It is going to get worse; continuing claims suggests that the recession is almost upon us.  I should correct.  It is here!

(zerohedge)

Continuing Claims Data Suggests Recession May Almost Be Upon Us

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 08:20 AM

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

A pervasive deterioration in continuing claims data across US states is consistent with a recession beginning very soon.

Historically a recession should mean stocks making new lows, but this cycle is proving odd, and this should not be taken as read. Very reliable — and one very rare –technical signals point to a long-term constructive outlook for US equities.

Jobless claims is one of the most important data points currently. Gauging when the weakening in the jobs market begins to accelerate is crucial in discerning when the Fed will likely cut rates. Claims are one of most leading of labor-market series, and they are high-frequency, coming out weekly.

The data is also released by state. Recessions are pronounced downturns, and they are also pervasive, spreading across industry and the country. One of the early signs of a recession is when multiple states start to see weaker jobs-market conditions at the same time.

I normally track how initial claims are behaving across the US — they are very close to levels that normally mean a recession is just around the corner. But the series can be a little noisy.

So I took a look at continuing claims by state, and this gives a much more stable series. The picture is unassailable. The percentage of states with continuing claims rising more 30% on an annual basis has never reached its current level and not gone on to rapidly spike much higher, and this has always happened concurrent with a recession.

This comes at the same time as multiple other less timely indicators have been highlighting recession risk is very high.

We’ll get another read on claims today, with the change in seasonal factors last week ensuring initial claims will stay elevated compared to their pre-adjustment values, while WARN notices have been pointing to elevated claims for some time.

END

PPI is quite tame!

Producer Price Inflation Plunged In March Thanks To Gasoline

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 08:38 AM

After yesterday’s mixed picture on CPI (cool headline, hotter than expected sticky core), all eyes are on Producer Prices this morning which are expected to be unchanged MoM and tumble notably on a YoY basis. The print was actually considerably cooler than expected with the headline declining 0.5% MoM pushing PPI down to just 2.7% YoY…

Source: BloombergThat is the biggest MoM drop since April 2020 and the lowest YoY print since January 2021 (when the Biden term began) and a 4 standard deviation ‘miss’ from expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

Eighty percent of the March decline in the index for final demand goods can be traced to an 11.7-percent drop in prices for gasoline. The indexes for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, jet fuel, electric power, and fresh and dry vegetables also fell. Conversely, prices for light motor trucks increased 0.7 percent. The indexes for chicken eggs and for meats also moved higher.

A 7.3-percent drop in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling was a major factor in the March decrease in prices for final demand services. The indexes for truck transportation of freight, portfolio management, fuels and lubricants retailing, loan services (partial), and automobiles and automobile parts retailing also moved down. Conversely, prices for guestroom rental rose 4.6 percent. The indexes for food retailing and for transportation of passengers (partial) also advanced

Energy’s decline dominated the deflationary impulse in PPI…

As we warned last month, it was clear this was coming as the pipeline for PPI had already dropped to a drag…

Source: Bloomberg

Intermediate Demand is now deflationary.

Finally we note that this is positive for margins theoretically as the CPI-PPI spread is at a record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Markets are reacting positively to this news (as they did with yesterday’s CPI). The question is, can they markets hold these gains or unwind them like yesterday.

10,43765

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

AMAZING!!!

SAN FRANCISCO

Whole Foods’ Flagship San Francisco Store Closing Due To “High Theft” And “Hostile Visitors”

WEDNESDAY, APR 12, 2023 – 05:30 AM

Adding to the ever-growing list of retail stores panic exiting Downtown San Francisco is one of the largest supermarkets, the Whole Foods Market at Eighth and Market Streets. A combination of soaring retail theft, out-of-control violent crime, and lawless streets are some of the reasons for its closure.

“We are closing our Trinity location only for the time being. 

“If we feel we can ensure the safety of our team members in the store, we will evaluate a reopening of our Trinity location,” a Whole Foods spokesperson told The San Francisco Standard in a statement.  

A city government insider told The Standard that Whole Foods’ decision to close up shop at the Trinity location was entirely based on “deteriorating street conditions around drug use and crime near the grocery store.” 

The beleaguered grocery store on Market Street slashed its operating hours due to “high theft” and hostile visitors in October of last year, according to one of the store’s managers. And in November, the store enforced new bathroom rules after syringes and pipes were found in the restroom. — The Standard.

There’s no one else to blame but San Francisco’s progressive leaders, who have turned a blind eye to crime and championed criminal justice reform. Due to these unsuccessful policies, the downtown district’s streets have become unsafe, and some streets almost resemble third-world countries. 

Whole Foods is one of many businesses shuttering retail outlets in the struggling progressive city. Walgreens Pharmacy has been one of the most high-profile names, closing at least 17 stores, if not more, due to a significant rise in retail theft. 

Some San Franciscans have had enough of failed city leadership. Last year, residents voted Soros-Backed Uber-Progressive Chesa Boudin out of office. 

And the reality of hard-left governance is only hurting the everyday law-abiding San Franciscans who have no means to defend themselves against criminals and now have to travel even more distance to other retail stores because ones in their neighborhood are closing up shop. 

Maybe with Boudin out, San Franciscans are finally learning the ‘liberal utopia’ isn’t any utopia but a hellhole, equivalent to Baltimore or Detroit. 

 end

CHICAGO

Walmart Abandons Unprofitable Chicago Stores After Investing “Hundreds Of Millions” In City

TUESDAY, APR 11, 2023 – 09:00 PM

After two decades of losses and “hundreds of millions of dollars” invested in Chicago, Walmart is shuttering four unprofitable stores in the metropolitan area, reducing its store footprint by half in the crime-ridden city.  

“The simplest explanation is that collectively our Chicago stores have not been profitable since we opened the first one nearly 17 years ago – these stores lose tens of millions of dollars a year, and their annual losses nearly doubled in just the last five years,” Walmart wrote in a press release. 

Indeed, Walmart has soured on Chicago – the Democratic stronghold that went from a once beautiful metro area into an absolute hellhole. According to Walmart, the decision came after considerable investment in the town.

“Over the years, we have tried many different strategies to improve the business performance of these locations, including building smaller stores, localizing product assortment and offering services beyond traditional retail. We have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the city, including $70 million in the last couple years to upgrade our stores and build two new Walmart Health facilities and a Walmart Academy training center.” 

That said, the company hasn’t lost all faith in the city but is willing to take a loss with the four remaining stores: 

“The remaining four Chicago stores continue to face the same business difficulties, but we think this decision gives us the best chance to help keep them open and serving the community.”

It sure wouldn’t be good PR if Walmart left the metro area entirely. 

Earlier this year, former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) lost her bid for re-election because of her inability to address the out-of-control crime wave. 

Although Walmart didn’t explicitly state why its stores were unprofitable, one can only assume that the city’s ‘soft-on-crime’ policies were a contributing factor, as professional shoplifting rings count Chicago as a top-10 city to hit.

And last month, the retail giant closed its final two stores in Portland due to a retail theft wave. 

In a separate report, Whole Foods in San Francisco closed its flagship store on Tuesday morning because of soaring thefts. 

Walmart and other retailers closing stores not just in Chicago but other big cities is a warning sign for Democratic mayors who can’t get crime under control will face an exodus of businesses.

Hours before the announcement, Democrats picked Chicago to host the 2024 Democratic National Convention. 

END

“Burned Alive:” Explosion Kills 18,000 Cows In Texas

WEDNESDAY, APR 12, 2023 – 08:00 PM

A dairy farm in Texas was rocked by a massive explosion that resulted in the deaths of thousands of cattle, reported local media outlet KFDA. 

Fire crews in Dimmitt, Texas, responded to an explosion and fire that engulfed multiple building structures at South Fork Dairy on Monday evening. Reports suggest over 18,000 cattle were killed in the blaze.

Castro County Sheriff Sal Rivera said the fire resulted from an explosion that spread to the building where the cows are housed before bringing them into the milking area and holding pen. 

KFDA quoted the Animal Welfare Institute, saying this is the deadliest barn fire in Texas since 2013. 

“We hope the industry will remain focused on this issue and strongly encourage farms to adopt commonsense fire safety measures.

“It is hard to imagine anything worse than being burned alive,” Margie Fishman, Public Relations Manager with AWF. 

Videos of the explosion are absolutely shocking. 

Add this explosion to the long list of unexplainable fires at food processing plants in the past 12 months. 

Following the dozens of fires, some Americans are raising concerns about the durability of food supply chains. Some have gone as far as ask: Is America’s food industry being sabotaged?

Think about it, no fake meat or soy plants are mysteriously catching on fire… 

end

Anheuser-Busch Loses $6BN In Six Days After Trans Ad Campaign That Top Execs Never Approved

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 03:05 PM

After reaching a three-year high of $66.73 per share, Bud Light parent company Anheuser Busch Inbev lost more than $6 billion in market cap since announcing its partnership with 26-year-old transgender ‘influencer’ Dylan Mulvaney on April 2, as bar owners and distributors report a sharp decline in Bud Light sales over the past week.

The company’s market cap fell as low as $125.7 billion, down from $132.8 billion six days ago, a drop of more than five-percent.

Meanwhile competitor Molson Coors (TAP) saw $350 million added to its market cap over the last week.

Bud Light’s partnership with Mulvaney included custom cans featuring his face and pro-LGBTQ language to commemorate the biological male’s ‘being a woman’ for over a year. The ad campaign kicked off with naked Mulvaney drinking Bud Light in a bathtub.

And while Anheuser-Busch issued a statement in support of Mulvaney, saying it “works with hundreds of influencers across our brands as one of many ways to authentically connect with audiences across various demographics,” the Daily Wire reports that company executives had no idea about the ad campaign.

“No one at the senior level” of the company was aware of Bud Light’s polarizing partnership with Dylan Mulvaney, sources close to the situation claim. The company is also allegedly pausing its marketing efforts and scrambling to implement a more “robust” process for evaluating future influencer partnerships.

…

“No one at a senior level was aware this was happening,” said one source, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal discussions. “Some low-level marketing staffer who helps manage the hundreds of influencer engagements they do must have thought it was no big deal. Obviously it was, and it’s a shame because they have a well-earned reputation for just being America’s beer — not a political company. It was a mistake.”

A second source also claimed that a lower level employee had made the decision to include Mulvaney in the campaign, a move that appears to have cost the company $5 billion in market value. The backlash to the iconic American beer brand has been so intense that a Budweiser distributor in Missouri canceled an event with the company’s famous Clydesdale horses because everything was “still sensitive” over the matter. -Daily Wire

This comes after the company’s woke vice president of marketing touted her mandate that that brand be more “inclusive.”

Wow… 

As we noted on Wednesday, bar owners and distributors have reported a sharp decline in Bud Light sales since the campaign launched.

According to John Ruch, country music singer and owner of the Redneck Riviera bar in Nashville, TN, Bud Light used to be their most popular beer.

“The customers decide. Customers are king,” he told Fox News host Tucker Carlson on Monday. “I own a bar in downtown Nashville called Redneck Riviera. Our number-one selling beer up until a few days ago was what? Bud Light. We got cases and cases and cases of it sitting back there. But in the past several days, you’re hard-pressed to find anyone ordering one. So as a business owner, I go, hey if you aren’t ordering it, we got to put something else in here. At the end of the day, that’s capitalism. That’s how it works.”

According to Rich, fans are finding it “hard to stay loyal” to now-woke brands, and are instead voting with their wallets.

“And there are tons of up-and-coming American brands that people are flooding to right now,” he said.

In one video, a beer merchandiser said of the situation; “I’ve never seen such little sales as in the past few days… I can’t feed my family.”

Meanwhile, Woke, Inc. loves Mulvaney – who’s scored ads with Nike, Oil of Olay and other companies.

END

Online Grocery Prices Up 10.3 Percent In March As Inflation Continues To Bite

WEDNESDAY, APR 12, 2023 – 03:20 AM

Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),Cartons of eggs are seen for sale in a store in this file photo. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Online grocery prices continued to rise by double-digits in March, as inflation continues to bite.

Although online grocery prices have eased over the past six months, costs were up 10.3 percent in March from the previous year, according to the Adobe Digital Price Index on April 10.

Adobe analyzed 1 trillion visits to retail sites and more than 100 million items across 18 product categories to track price changes.

There was a 0.4 percent rise in the growth of food prices from February, which had been slowing since their height last September, when they hit a record 14.3 percent year-over-year increase.

Online grocery prices closely follow the food category in the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Hit With Persistent Inflation

Online food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 compared to the previous year, but still above historical averages, according to Adobe.

The March CPI report projected that food prices would increase by 7.5 percent in 2023, particularly for nine additional food categories, which have experienced consistent growth since last year.

The category expected to see the largest surge in prices is eggs, which saw an estimated rise of 29.6 percent, after taking into consideration the volatility of the industry.

Costs are expected to rise for poultry by 3.4 percent, dairy products by 6.4 percent, fats and oils by 15.4 percent, processed fruits and vegetables by 11.4 percent, sugar based products by 11.1 percent, cereals and bakery products by 11.7 percent, nonalcoholic beverages by 10.7 percent, and other foods by 8.5 percent.

Meanwhile, beef and veal prices are predicted to decrease by 1.0 percent in 2023, while pork prices would fall by 0.8 percent.

Fresh fruit and vegetable prices are projected to see continuous growth by the end of the year, with fruit to grow by 0.6 percent and vegetables by 1.3 percent.

Despite persistent inflation, customers are still buying groceries online, with Adobe reporting last month the biggest jump in sales for that category last year, with spending rising by 10.8 percent, to $86.8 billion.

A separate report by Coresight Research on April 9, also said that despite inflation, online grocery sales are continuing to grow, despite a slowdown in expansion.

It notes that the COVID-19 pandemic made consumers more habitually used to shopping online for non-food grocery categories “to a greater extent” than food.

Coresight cited research revealing that grocery inflation boosted foot traffic at discount grocery stores such as Aldi and at large warehouse sized retailers like Walmart, Kroger, and Costco.

Read more here…

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This is a must read…

Fiscal Insanity: The Government Borrows $6 Billion A Day, And We’re Stuck With The Bill

WEDNESDAY, APR 12, 2023 – 11:40 PM

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

We’re not living the American dream.

We’re living a financial nightmare.

The U.S. government is funding its existence with a credit card.

The government—and that includes the current administration—is spending money it doesn’t have on programs it can’t afford, and “we the taxpayers” are the ones being forced to foot the bill for the government’s fiscal insanity.

According to the number crunchers with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the government is borrowing roughly $6 billion a day.

As the Editorial Board for the Washington Post warns:

“The nation has reached a hazardous moment where what it owes, as a percentage of the total size of the economy, is the highest since World War II. If nothing changes, the United States will soon be in an uncharted scenario that weakens its national security, imperils its ability to invest in the future, unfairly burdens generations to come, and will require cuts to critical programs such as Social Security and Medicare. It is not a future anyone wants.”

Let’s talk numbers, shall we?

The national debt (the amount the federal government has borrowed over the years and must pay back) is $31 trillion and will grow another $19 trillion by 2033. That translates to roughly $246,000 per taxpayer or $94,000 for every single person in the country.

The bulk of that debt has been amassed over the past two decades, thanks in large part to the fiscal shenanigans of four presidents, 10 sessions of Congress and two wars.

It’s estimated that the amount this country owes is now 130% greater than its gross domestic product (all the products and services produced in one year by labor and property supplied by the citizens).

In other words, the government is spending more than it brings in.

The U.S. ranks as the 12th most indebted nation in the world, with much of that debt owed to the Federal Reserve, large investment funds and foreign governments, namely, Japan and China.

Interest payments on the national debt are estimated to top $395 billion this year, which is significantly more than the government spends on veterans’ benefits and services, and according to Pew Research Center, more than it will spend on elementary and secondary education, disaster relief, agriculture, science and space programs, foreign aid, and natural resources and environmental protection combined.

According to the Committee for a Reasonable Federal Budget, the interest we’ve paid on this borrowed money is “nearly twice what the federal government will spend on transportation infrastructure, over four times as much as it will spend on K-12 education, almost four times what it will spend on housing, and over eight times what it will spend on science, space, and technology.”

In ten years, those interest payments will exceed our entire military budget.

This is financial tyranny.

We’ve been sold a bill of goods by politicians promising to pay down the national debt, jumpstart the economy, rebuild our infrastructure, secure our borders, ensure our security, and make us all healthy, wealthy and happy.

None of that has come to pass, and yet we’re still being loaded down with debt not of our own making while the government remains unrepentant, unfazed and undeterred in its wanton spending.

Indeed, the national deficit (the difference between what the government spends and the revenue it takes in) remains at more than $1.5 trillion.

If Americans managed their personal finances the way the government mismanages the nation’s finances, we’d all be in debtors’ prison by now.

Despite the government propaganda being peddled by the politicians and news media, however, the government isn’t spending our tax dollars to make our lives better.

We’re being robbed blind so the governmental elite can get richer.

In the eyes of the government, “we the people, the voters, the consumers, and the taxpayers” are little more than pocketbooks waiting to be picked.

“We the people” have become the new, permanent underclass in America.

Consider: The government can seize your home and your car (which you’ve bought and paid for) over nonpayment of taxes. Government agents can freeze and seize your bank accounts and other valuables if they merely “suspect” wrongdoing. And the IRS insists on getting the first cut of your salary to pay for government programs over which you have no say.

We have no real say in how the government runs, or how our taxpayer funds are used, but we’re being forced to pay through the nose, anyhow.

We have no real say, but that doesn’t prevent the government from fleecing us at every turn and forcing us to pay for endless wars that do more to fund the military industrial complex than protect us, pork barrel projects that produce little to nothing, and a police state that serves only to imprison us within its walls.

If you have no choice, no voice, and no real options when it comes to the government’s claims on your property and your money, you’re not free.

It wasn’t always this way, of course.

Early Americans went to war over the inalienable rights described by philosopher John Locke as the natural rights of life, liberty and property.

It didn’t take long, however—a hundred years, in fact—before the American government was laying claim to the citizenry’s property by levying taxes to pay for the Civil War. As the New York Times reports, “Widespread resistance led to its repeal in 1872.”

Determined to claim some of the citizenry’s wealth for its own uses, the government reinstituted the income tax in 1894. Charles Pollock challenged the tax as unconstitutional, and the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in his favor. Pollock’s victory was relatively short-lived. Members of Congress—united in their determination to tax the American people’s income—worked together to adopt a constitutional amendment to overrule the Pollock decision.

On the eve of World War I, in 1913, Congress instituted a permanent income tax by way of the 16th Amendment to the Constitution and the Revenue Act of 1913. Under the Revenue Act, individuals with income exceeding $3,000 could be taxed starting at 1% up to 7% for incomes exceeding $500,000.

It’s all gone downhill from there.

Unsurprisingly, the government has used its tax powers to advance its own imperialistic agendas and the courts have repeatedly upheld the government’s power to penalize or jail those who refused to pay their taxes.

While we’re struggling to get by, and making tough decisions about how to spend what little money actually makes it into our pockets after the federal, state and local governments take their share (this doesn’t include the stealth taxes imposed through tolls, fines and other fiscal penalties), the government continues to do whatever it likes—levy taxes, rack up debt, spend outrageously and irresponsibly—with little thought for the plight of its citizens.

To top it all off, all of those wars the U.S. is so eager to fight abroad are being waged with borrowed funds. As The Atlantic reports, “U.S. leaders are essentially bankrolling the wars with debt, in the form of purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds by U.S.-based entities like pension funds and state and local governments, and by countries like China and Japan.”

Of course, we’re the ones who have to repay that borrowed debt.

For instance, American taxpayers have been forced to shell out more than $5.6 trillion since 9/11 for the military industrial complex’s costly, endless so-called “war on terrorism.” That translates to roughly $23,000 per taxpayer to wage wars abroad, occupy foreign countries, provide financial aid to foreign allies, and fill the pockets of defense contractors and grease the hands of corrupt foreign dignitaries.

Mind you, that’s only a portion of what the Pentagon spends on America’s military empire.

The United States also spends more on foreign aid than any other nation, with nearly $300 billion disbursed over a five-year period. More than 150 countries around the world receive U.S. taxpayer-funded assistance, with most of the funds going to the Middle East, Africa and Asia. That price tag keeps growing, too.

As Forbes reports, “U.S. foreign aid dwarfs the federal funds spent by 48 out of 50 state governments annually. Only the state governments of California and New York spent more federal funds than what the U.S. sent abroad each year to foreign countries.”

Most recently, the U.S. has allocated nearly $115 billion in emergency military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine since the start of the Russia invasion.

As Dwight D. Eisenhower warned in a 1953 speech, this is how the military industrial complex continues to get richer, while the American taxpayer is forced to pay for programs that do little to enhance our lives, ensure our happiness and well-being, or secure our freedoms.

This is no way of life.

Yet it’s not just the government’s endless wars that are bleeding us dry.

We’re also being forced to shell out money for surveillance systems to track our movements, money to further militarize our already militarized police, money to allow the government to raid our homes and bank accounts, money to fund schools where our kids learn nothing about freedom and everything about how to comply, and on and on.

There was a time in our history when our forebears said “enough is enough” and stopped paying their taxes to what they considered an illegitimate government. They stood their ground and refused to support a system that was slowly choking out any attempts at self-governance, and which refused to be held accountable for its crimes against the people. Their resistance sowed the seeds for the revolution that would follow.

Unfortunately, in the 200-plus years since we established our own government, we’ve let bankers, turncoats and number-crunching bureaucrats muddy the waters and pilfer the accounts to such an extent that we’re back where we started.

Once again, we’ve got a despotic regime with an imperial ruler doing as they please.

Once again, we’ve got a judicial system insisting we have no rights under a government which demands that the people march in lockstep with its dictates.

And once again, we’ve got to decide whether we’ll keep marching or break stride and make a turn toward freedom.

But what if we didn’t just pull out our pocketbooks and pony up to the federal government’s outrageous demands for more money?

What if we didn’t just dutifully line up to drop our hard-earned dollars into the collection bucket, no questions asked about how it will be spent?

What if, instead of quietly sending in our tax checks, hoping vainly for some meager return, we did a little calculating of our own and started deducting from our taxes those programs that we refuse to support?

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, if we don’t have the right to decide what happens to our hard-earned cash, then we don’t have any rights at all.

end

A  must read..

Headline CPI Tumbles More Than Expected But Real Wages Decline For 24th Straight Month

WEDNESDAY, APR 12, 2023 – 10:22 AM

Despite NYFRB’s recent survey showing inflation expectations resurging, expectations were for a notable drop in headline CPI (but a rise in core CPI) and that is what we got, with headline CPI +0.1% MoM (+5.0% YoY vs 5.1% exp, and down from 6.0% YoY prior)…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy’s decline was the biggest YoY deflationary driver for the headline CPI print while Services continued to rise…

Source: Bloomberg

Goods inflation turned back up in March, from +1.0% YoY to +1.5% YoY while Services inflation actually slowed very modestly from +7.3% YoY to +7.1% YoY…

Core CPI, however, rose 0.4% MoM (as expected), pushing the index up 5.6% YoY, up from 5.5% prior…

Source: Bloomberg

CPI rose 0.1% in March after increasing 0.4 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0%. The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase. This more than offset a decline in the energy index, which decreased 3.5 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes declined. The food index was unchanged in March with the food at home index falling 0.3 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 5.6 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 8.2 percent over the last year, accounting for over 60 percent of the total increase in all items less food and energy. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+15.0 percent), household furnishings and operations (+5.6 percent), recreation (+4.8 percent), and new vehicles (+6.1 percent).

The silver-lining perhaps is that shelter may have started to top out:

• MoM Shelter rose just 0.66% in March, down from 0.79% in Feb and the lowest since November 22
• MoM Rent rose just 0.45% in March, down from 0.71% in Feb and the lowest since March 22

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s new favorite inflation indicator – so-called ‘Super-Core’: Core Services Ex-Shelter – slowed to 5.73% YoY, lowest since July 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

But Transportation rose, more than offsetting Medical Care’s decline…

Additionally, we note that real wages continue their declining streak – now at 24 months…

Source: Bloomberg

Will CPI continue its trend lower with M2?

A mixed bag with plenty here for both doves and hawks.

end

USA COVID//

END

SWAMP STORIES

Seymour Hersh Reports that Ukrainian Leader Zelensky Embezzled $400 Million from US Payments Allocated for Fuel

By Joe Hoft Apr. 13, 2023 10:00 am

• Tweet
• Biden and Zelenskyy in Kyiv, February 20,2023, White House photo.

 

In a recent post on his blog, Seymour Hersh writes that Ukrainian President Zelensky embezzled $400 million from the US that was allocated to Ukraine for fuel. 

This isn’t the first time that we have heard about corruption in Ukraine.  In 2019 The Gateway Pundit reported on Ukrainian businessman Igor Kolomoisky, who controlled Ukraine’s largest commercial bank, Privat Bank.  This bank was said to control Burisma, the oil and gas company that gave Hunter Biden millions.  John Kerry was involved in Burisma as well.  There were reports that Kolmiosky somehow lost $1.8 billion of the bank’s money.  It was suspected that this money went offshore. TGP also reported on all the US politicians who were involved in Ukraine and it wasn’t just for world peace.  It wasn’t to help out the people of Ukraine either.

TGP shared that the current President of Ukraine ran against corruption in the country.  But he has blemishes too.  He had connections to banker Kolomoisky and he was accused of having $41 million in offshore funds.

Zelensky capitalized on widespread public anger at corruption, but his 2019 campaign was dogged by doubts over his anti-graft bona fides, given that his campaign was boosted by media belonging to Kolomoisky — who is accused of stealing US$5.5 billion from his own bank and funneling it offshore in concert with his partner, Hennadiy Boholiubov.

Seymour Hersh recently reported on more corruption in Ukraine involving Zelensky according to Eurasian Times:

In his blog, Hersh writes – The Ukraine government, headed by Volodymyr Zelensky, has been using American taxpayers’ funds to pay dearly for the vitally needed diesel fuel that is keeping the Ukrainian army on the move in its war with Russia.

It is unknown how much the Zalensky government is paying per gallon for the fuel, but the Pentagon was paying as much as $400 per gallon to transport gasoline from a port in Pakistan, via truck or parachute, into Afghanistan during the decades-long American war there.

The issue of corruption was directly raised with Zelensky in a meeting last January in Kyiv with CIA Director William Burns. His message to the Ukrainian president, I was told by an intelligence official with direct knowledge of the meeting, was out of a 1950s mob movie.

The senior generals and government officialsin Kyiv were angry at what they saw as Zelensky’s greed, so Burns told the Ukrainian president because “he was taking a larger share of the skim money than was going to the generals.” 

Burns also presented Zelensky with a list of thirty-five generals and senior officials whose corruption was known to the CIA and others in the American government. Zelensky responded to the American pressure ten days later by publicly dismissing ten of the most ostentatious officials on the list and doing little else.

“The ten he got rid of were brazenly bragging about the money they had—driving around Kyiv in their new Mercedes,” the intelligence official told me.

Meanwhile, Hersh, citing an intelligence official, said that the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines and lack of strategic planning with regard to Ukraine had caused a growing rift between the White House and the US intelligence community.

Hersh goes on to claim that the Intel Community, and Biden’s White House, are at odds since Joe Biden ordered the sabotage of the Russian Nordstream pipeline.  

The Biden – Obama gang is clearly the most corrupt in US history. 

END

Bank records show millions in transactions between Hunter Biden, China firms: Sen. Johnson | Just The News

Robert Hryniak	1:16 PM (22 minutes ago)
to

When the Chinese give up records, do you still think this is not gamed?
Perhaps being a deadbeat borrower has something to do with this. Meanwhile China no longer answers the phone when the Ship of Fools rings. No matter what, this sailing is headed for rocks that it cannot escape.

https://justthenews.com/government/congress/china-threatens-biden-revealing-hunter-bidens-bank-records-senate-republicans

THE KING REPORT

The King Report April 12, 2023 Issue 6987

Independent View of the News

US Federal Budget Deficit Hits $1.1 Trillion This is $430 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period in the last fiscal year… budgetary expenses grew by 13 percent in the first six months, revenues dipped by 3 percent… https://www.theepochtimes.com/us-federal-budget-deficit-hits-1-1-trillion_5186280.html   Fed’s Williams Says One More Rate Hike Is ‘Reasonable Starting Place’ New York Fed chief say inflation has remained very high     Williams said the March outlook of policymakers for one more interest-rate hike this year, followed by a pause, is a “reasonable starting place: – though the path will depend on incoming data…    “We’re seeing signs of inflation slowing but inflation is still very high,” he said.  “Some of this core services inflation, excluding housing, that hasn’t budged yet.  So, still kind of got our work cut out for us to get inflation back to 2%.”… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-11/fed-s-williams-says-one-more-hike-is-reasonable-starting-place#xj4y7vzkg   ESMs traded moderately higher, but in a large range, from the Nikkei opening on Tuesday until they spiked higher at 5 ET.  ESMs and stocks peaked at 5:40 ET, and then tumbled until 7:42 ET.  An A-B-C rally for the NYSE open appeared; it ended at 9:27 ET.    ESMs and stocks hit daily lows at 10:44 ET.  After a sharp rebound rally that ended at 11:19 ET, ESMs and stocks retrenched until after Europe closed.  A Noon Balloon developed; it was abetted by dovish remarks by ex-Obama aide, GOP basher, and current controversial Chicago Fed President Goolsbee.Goolsbee: Fed Should Be Careful About Hiking Too Aggressively – BBG 13:30 ETFed’s Goolsbee: We Need to Be Caution on Raising Interest Rates after Bank Failures – DJFed’s Goolsbee: The Right Monetary Policy Approach Calls for Prudence and Patience  Goolsbee: “Given how uncertainty abounds about where these financial headwinds are going, I think we need to be cautious.  We need to be cautious. We should gather further data and be careful about raising rates too aggressively until we see how much work the headwinds are doing for us in getting down inflation… We’ve been tightening financial conditions to bring inflation down, so if the response to recent banking problems leads to financial tightening, monetary policy has to do less…” https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/speeches/2023/april-11-economic-club-chicago   The rally stalled on this: Fed’s Goolsbee: Inflation Data Continues to Come in Extremely Strong.   Eventually, ESMs and stocks plodded higher; traders are gaga again for stocks.  The rally stalled at 13:30 ET; ESMs and stocks then retreated until the last-hour manipulation commenced at 15:06 ET.  The rally was modest; ESMs and stocks hit minor new highs.  Then, ESMs and stocks tumbled until 15:57 ET.   Fangs and techs led the decline on Tuesday.  This is a glaring anomaly with Q1 earnings results looming.  Usually, traders pour into Fangs and techs lead the pattern rally for earnings reporting season.   CNN: American offices are half-empty. That could be the next big risk for banks Investors and regulators, on high alert for signs of trouble in the financial system following recent bank failures, are now homing in on the downturn in the $20 trillion US commercial real estate market…    Work-from-home bill comes due – Prices in the United States were down 15% in March from their recent peak, according to data provider Green Street…Office properties have been getting hammered the hardest. Hybrid work remains popular… https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/business/commercial-real-estate-banks-offices/index.html   Default risk grows on $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt: analysts The risk of default in the commercial real estate market is growing as office and retail property valuations could drop by as much as 40% while nearly $1.5 trillion in debt is due for repayment by the end of 2025, according to analysts at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley…     Over the next four years, commercial real estate properties must pay off debt maturities that will peak at $550 billion in 2027…Some $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks are set to mature in 2023, according to Trepp.  About a third — or $80 billion — are on office properties. https://nypost.com/2023/04/10/default-risk-grows-on-1-5-trillion-in-commercial-real-estate-debt-analysts/   The US crime epidemic in big cities is a huge factor in downtown building vacancies.   Whole Foods closes San Francisco flagship store (65k sq ft) after one year, citing worker safety https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/11/business/san-francisco-whole-foods-closure/index.html   Walmart closing four Chicago stores by Sunday The closures will leave Walmart with only four other stores in Chicago.     Walmart claimed its Chicago stores have not been profitable since opening their first store in the city in the Austin neighborhood in 2006. “These stores lose tens of millions of dollars a year, and their annual losses nearly doubled in just the last five years. The remaining four Chicago stores continue to face the same business difficulties, but we think this decision gives us the best chance to help keep them open and serving the community… We have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the city, including $70 million in the last couple years to upgrade our stores and build two new Walmart Health facilities and a Walmart Academy training center…”  (The elephant in the room that must be not mentioned is CRIME.) https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/walmart-says-it-s-never-made-money-in-chicago-closes-4-stores/ar-AA19Jg9M   DNC to hold 2024 convention in Chicago (Not a parody!  The jokes will write themselves!) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dnc-hold-2024-convention-chicago   Chicago crime is +46% y/y; it had a 5% arrest rate in 2022! https://wirepoints.org/chicago-needs-first-and-foremost-deterrence-on-crime-wirepoints/   The Fed Models the Weather Although It Can’t Even Stress Test Treasuries – The Fed has conducted a “pilot climate scenario analysis exercise”. Let’s take a peek inside this laughable event. https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-fed-models-the-weather-although-it-cant-even-stress-test-treasuries   Positive aspects of previous session Goolsbee generated an equity rally with his dovish remarks The DJTA led the rally Banks rallied on buying for Q1 results that begin on Friday   Negative aspects of previous session Fangs and techs declined sharply, a glaring anomaly ahead of Q1 earnings season Bonds declined modestly; gasoline, oil, Bitcoin, and gold rallied sharply ESMs and stocks plunged during the final half hour of NYSE trading   Ambiguous aspects of previous session How far will the US sink due to Bidenism and Bidenomics?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4111.94 Previous session High/Low: 4124.26; 4102.61   U.S. in crisis mode with allies after Ukraine intel leak Officials in London, Brussels, Berlin, Dubai and Kyiv questioned Washington about how the information ended up online… One said that members of the Five Eyes — the intelligence consortium of the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand — have asked for briefings from Washington but have yet to receive a substantive response…     More than 100 U.S. intelligence documents were posted on Discord, a secure messaging app, as early as March 2 and contained sensitive, classified information about the war in Ukraine, Russian military activity, China and the Middle East. The photographed papers, which appeared to have been folded over and then smoothed out, contained top secret information, including from the Central Intelligence Agency…  https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/10/ukraine-intel-leak-00091229   WaPo: Egypt secretly planned to supply rockets to Russia, leaked U.S. document says President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi in February planned to produce 40,000 rockets for Russia and instructed officials to keep production and shipment secret ‘to avoid problems with the West’… A U.S. government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address sensitive information, said: “We are not aware of any execution of that plan,” referring to the rocket export initiative. “We have not seen that happen,” the official added.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/10/egypt-weapons-russia/   Germany to switch off last remaining nuclear plants Germany will shut down its three remaining nuclear plants on Saturday, betting that it can fulfil its green ambitions without atomic power despite the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war… https://insiderpaper.com/germany-to-switch-off-last-remaining-nuclear-plants/   Biden will not hold press conference in Ireland despite murmurs of White House ‘protecting’ him Jean-Pierre denied Monday that the administration has been “trying to protect” Biden from the media by preventing him from answering its questions… (The Big Guy’s faulty faculties worsen on long treks.) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-will-not-hold-press-conference-ireland-murmurs-white-house-protecting-him   @jeffreyatucker: Absolutely stunning: Long Covid is really mask-induced exhaustion-syndrome (MIES). https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1125150/full   Today –Any decline on a worse-than-expected March CPI should be transitory. Conditioned and pattern traders want to be long for the start of Q1 earnings season.  The late tumble yesterday was likely traders selling on CPI trepidation or a leak of a worse than expected March CPI.  The decline increases the odds of a relief rally after CPI is released.    Expected economic data: March CPI 0.2% m/m & 5.1% y/y, Core 0.4% m/m & 5.6% y/y; March Budget -$313.5B; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 9 ET, SF Fed Pres Daly 12:00 ET, FOMC Minutes 3/22 14:00 ET      ESMs are +3.50 at 20:00 ET.    DAL and FAST report tomorrow; PNC, WFC, JPM, C, BLK, and UNH report on Friday.   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4030; 100-day MA: 3987; 150-day MA: 3922; 200-day MA: 3947 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,110; 100-day MA: 33,370; 150-day MA: 32,589; 200-day MA: 32,485   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3847.63 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4007.61 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4092.39 triggers a sell signal   FBI documents associate internet slang like ‘based’ and ‘red pill’ with ‘extremism’ The doc listed key terms associated with ‘Involuntarily Celibate’ and ‘Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremism (It is crystal clear that the FBI is irrevocably and hopelessly corrupt!) https://www.foxnews.com/media/fbi-documents-associate-internet-slang-based-red-pill-extremism   Are liberal handouts replacing the American Dream with a culture of entitlement? From small beginnings with free cell phones a decade ago, a culture of entitlement has expanded inexorably to encompass everything from guaranteed income to student loan forgiveness and free housing… the notion of temporary welfare benefits and unemployment insurance to tide hardworking Americans over through hard times has given way to expectations of unearned, big government handouts and subsidies. From small beginnings with free cell phones a decade ago, the culture of entitlement has expanded inexorably to encompass everything from guaranteed income to student loan forgiveness and free housing… https://justthenews.com/nation/ent-are-democrats-giving-away-american-dream   @libsoftiktok: Professor at @WestVirginiaU says there’s no such thing as biological sex. Imagine going into thousands of dollars of debt to study this.  https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1645912907769856002   “One of the most important reasons for studying history is that virtually every stupid idea that is in vogue today has been tried before and proved disastrous before, time and again. Do we need to keep repeating the same mistakes forever?” – Thomas Sowell end The King Report April 13, 2023 Issue 6988Independent View of the NewsUS March CPI: 0.1% m/m & 5.0% y/y, 0.2% m/m & 5.1% y/y consensus; Core CPI 0.4% m/m and 5.6% y/y as expected.  Real avg. hourly earnings -0.7% y/y; Real avg. weekly earnings -1.6% y/y   @YahooFinance: The March CPI report is “really a repeat from the last few months,” FHN Financial Macro Strategist Will Compernolle says. The momentum from “core services ex-shelter, what the Fed likes to call supercore inflation… is still too high.” https://t.co/JiFIxkExty   @ces921: Atlanta Fed sticky CPI (headline and core) still showing 6.5% yoy. This is not the environment where folks should be thinking the Fed’s reaction function will bring about imminent rate cuts. With markets basically back to max dovishness on cuts, time to price out the cuts again. https://twitter.com/ces921/status/1646171828023353345   @ClevelandFed: Median CPI rose 0.4% in March and 7.1% on a year-over-year basis.  See the latest update: http://clefed.org/CPI   Bulls and the Biden-friendly media heralded the +0.1% m/m headline CPI.  Mr. Bond was not fooled.  He knows Core CPI remains hot due to services; a 4.6% m/m decline in gasoline created the benign CPI; but gasoline has surged 21% from its March low and it is at the highest level since last July 1, 2022.    Yesterday Team Biden said it would refill the US SPR.  The odds are extremely high that an important bottom in gasoline and oil appeared in March.   After Asia opened, ESMs traded modestly higher in a very tight range until the range expanded after 4 ET.  The markets were on US March CPI watch.  ESMs exploded higher 1 minute before the US March CPI Report was released at 8:30 ET.    ESMs soared from 4135.00 at 8:29 ET to 4164.75 at 8:30 ET.  ESMs hit a daily high of 4177.75 at 8:35 ET.  Saner angels and discerning traders then sold because the CPI Report was not as sanguine as the headline number suggested.  ESMs hit a daily low of 4121.00 at 11:13 ET.   USMs commenced their rally at 8:28 ET, 1 minute earlier than ESMs.  USMs soared from 132 5/32 at 8:28 ET to their daily high of 133 15/32 at 8:38 ET.  USMs then tumbled to a daily low 131 31/32 at 10:34 ET.  After much umbrage from The Street, the BLS claimed there was no CPI leak.   The equity rebound rally was aided and abetted by uber-liberal & incompetent SF Fed Pres Daly:   Fed’s Daly Says More Rate Hikes May Not Be Needed to Slow Inflation – BBG Daly says economic data strong but notes headwinds coming (Daly is NOT an FOMC voter)   Fed liberals that happen to also be Democrat allies, like Daly and Goolsbee, are issuing dovish pap.  They fear Democrats will get clobbered in 2024 if recession appears later this year.  They are ignoring the strong possibility that resurgent energy inflation could propel CPI higher in coming months.  PS – Daly said it’s “most likely there will be no recession.”  Then why the warning about headwinds?   Fed’s Daly: Still need to raise rates, but how much hinges on bank stresses https://yhoo.it/3MzZesz (Yes, Virginia, Daly issued contradicting views about Fed rate hikes.)   ESMs and stocks formed a double top at 13:11 ET and 13:32 ET.  ESMs and stocks went inert ahead of the FOMC Minutes from March 21-22.  Spoiler Alert:  The Fed predicts mild recession with inflation!   FOMC Minutes Highlights per BloombergAll Fed Officials Back 25 BPS Rate Increase at March FOMCMany Fed Officials Lowered Views of Rate Peak on Bank StrainsSeveral Fed Officials Stressed Need for Policy FlexibilityFed Staff Projected ‘Mild Recession’ Starting Later in 2023Several Officials Considered Whether to Pause at March FOMCAll Fed Officials Backed Continuing Balance Sheet Reduction  FOMC Minutes: “In assessing the economic outlook, participants noted that since they met in February, data on inflation, employment, and economic activity generally came in stronger than expected. They also noted, however, that the developments in the banking sector that had occurred late in the intermeeting period affected their views of the economic and policy outlook and the uncertainty surrounding that outlook…Participants agreed that the labor market remained very tight…    Regarding prices for core services excluding housing, participants agreed that there was little evidence pointing to disinflation in this component…     Given recent developments, members anticipated that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time… https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20230322.htm   ESMs traded sideways with a downward bias after the release of the FOMC Minutes.  They broke down at 14:25 ET and tumbled to new lows.  ESMs eventually bottomed out at 15:25 ET.  After a modest bounce, ESMs and stocks traded sideways into the NYSE close.   USMs had a modest rebound rally that ended when Europe closed at 11:30 ET.  USMs then sank to a new daily low of 131 15/12 at 13:00 ET.  They then rallied persistently into the NYSE close.   American Airlines’ weak profit forecast sends rivals’ stocks tumbling https://trib.al/IwebtGO   US Special Forces in Ukraine at embassy, official confirms, as Pentagon document leak probe heats up – White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby speaks to Fox News about leaked classified documents, says Special Forces ‘are not fighting on the battlefield’ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-special-forces-ukraine-embassy-official-confirms-pentagon-document-leak-probe-heats-up   Positive aspects of previous session ESMs and USMs surged before and immediately after the release of the March CPI Report   Negative aspects of previous session The DJTA declined due to American Airline’s profit warning ESMs and USMs spiked higher and then tumbled after the CPI Report’s release Fangs and techs, instead of rallying of Q1 results, declined again   Ambiguous aspects of previous session What does Mr. Bond fear or know that equity jockeys don’t?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4104.44 Previous session High/Low: 4134.37; 4086.94   Trump mocks Macron for ‘kissing Xi’s a**’ https://trib.al/VNdJ1ZP   Beverly Hills is awash with ‘rapidly growing’ homeless encampments https://t.co/VsnQj7G8Nl (CA Gov Newsome has been warming up in the Dem bullpen for months to relieve The Big Guy!)   @charliebilello: Hiking rates to bring down inflation is not a “policy mistake,” it’s the Fed’s mandate.  The true policy mistake was believing that 0% rates, buying billions of mortgage bonds in a housing bubble, & increasing the money supply by 40% in 2 yrs would have no negative consequences.   Today –Traders got caught long on Wednesday.  Day and short-term traders got blindsided by the ESM tumble after the initial rally on the March CPI Report.  Pattern traders that have been getting long for earnings reporting season also suffered.  A disappointing March PPI today could harm longs further.    Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 235k, Continuing Claims 1.835m; March PPI 0.0% m/m & 3.0% y/y, Core 0.2% m/m & 3.4% y/y; Expected earnings: DAL .29, FAST .50   ESMs surprising are -6.50 at 20:10 ET.  Usually after a late decline, ESMs bounce is early Asian trading.   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4032; 100-day MA: 3988; 150-day MA: 3923; 200-day MA: 3947 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,108; 100-day MA: 33,371; 150-day MA: 32,606; 200-day MA: 32,495   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3847.63 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4012.64 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4133.85 triggers a buy signal   Security fears after Biden Belfast visit plan found in street (continual incompetence) https://trib.al/E7an5lA   @TheFirstonTV: Joe Biden (in Belfast) said the Oval Office is located in the United States Capitol.  This is a national emergency. “As you walk into my office in the Oval Office in the United States Capitol…” https://twitter.com/TheFirstonTV/status/1646170579584647173   @TPostMillennial: What an embarrassment (POTUS) https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1646176971687165955   @RealMacReport: Joe Biden attempts to speak: “I said I’m going to Listen.”  But gives up as his staffers force the press out of the room.  https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1646172201413136385   @RNCResearch: Biden brought his creepy whisper to Ireland https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1646234628234305537   Biden takes kid questions in Ireland after foregoing press conference The presence of Hunter and first sister Valerie Biden Owens on the trip has also raised eyebrows, with CBS reporter Ed O’Keefe telling National Security Council official Amanda Sloat during a Wednesday morning briefing: “There’s a perception that the rest of this week is essentially, you know, tree planting, bell ringing, and a taxpayer-funded family reunion.”…  https://trib.al/lBkqfXo   Even Stephen Colbert pokes fun at Biden over bizarre Easter Egg Roll gaffe When Roker pressed the president to formally confirm his campaign plans, Biden blundered: “I’ll either be rolling an egg or end up being the guy who’s pushing ’em out.” The gaffe was a perfect set-up for Colbert, who joked that the statement could be an indication of the president’s floundering mental fitness.     “… Joe Biden can lay eggs. Easy as pie. No, I push ’em right out the cloaca. Serve ’em up scrambled, or sit on ’em for a while…” Colbert said, while sporting a pair of aviator sunglasses like the ones Biden routinely wears. “Point is, I am mentally fit to once again run for president of the United States. What’s goin’ on? Where’s Jill? Marco! Jill-o!”… https://t.co/rUpa8wZmqt   @realJoelFischer: Yes, this is real. This is Joe Biden’s White House. (Phillies mascot twerking at Easter Egg Role event with 3 Easter Bunnies standing nearby) https://t.co/n2KaWlFail   Trump: “There’s Something Wrong” With Biden Trump pointed to the latest example of Biden’s bizarre behavior during the White House’s Easter Egg Roll on Monday.  “I saw his answer today on television about whether or not he was going to run,” the 45th president stated. “You can’t get a softer question than that. That was a long answer, talking about the eggs, and this and that. Look. I don’t think he can.”… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-theres-something-wrong-biden   Bank releases records showing millions in transaction between Hunter Biden, China firms, Johnson Johnson says the records show the Biden family was involved with the now-defunct CEFC China Energy, which had connections to the Chinese Communist Party… Cathay Bank has given Senate Republicans records showing millions of dollars going from Chinese companies to President Biden’s son Hunter Biden… https://justthenews.com/government/congress/china-threatens-biden-revealing-hunter-bidens-bank-records-senate-republicans   Ex-Biden stenographer says FBI ignored prez’s role in Hunter’s business dealings Then-Vice President Joe Biden visited Ukraine on a mission to bolster the country’s energy industry days after his son Hunter joined the board of natural gas company Burisma in 2014 — which a former White House stenographer claims implicates the now-80-year-old in a foreign influence-peddling “kickback scheme.”  Mike McCormick says he was with current national security adviser Jake Sullivan — then a Biden aide — in the press cabin of Air Force Two en route to Kyiv on April 21, 2014, as he outlined how the world’s wealthiest country would help the deeply corrupt post-Soviet state build its gas industry…   McCormick tells The Post that he wants to testify before the federal grand jury in Delaware considering charges against Hunter — saying he has relevant information that the FBI ignored. “They’ve been looking at Hunter Biden, but this ties Joe Biden and [Sullivan] into promoting a kickback scheme with Ukraine,” he said. “It’s the timeline that does it.” … https://t.co/nRbqFtKoKw   Biden DOJ recommends no jail time for trans vandal of Catholic church: ‘F— Catholics’ Biden’s administration previously came down hard on pro-life activists    President Biden’s Justice Department offered what critics are calling a sweetheart plea deal to a vandal who admitted to defacing a Catholic church with profane graffiti, destroying a statue of the Virgin Mary, assaulting a church worker, and resisting arrest…    “The Biden Justice Department tried to put Houck in prison for 11 years for defending his son while recommending no jail time for Nota after this deranged trans terrorist badly damaged a Catholic church, fought with the police, assaulted a church employee, and scared the hell out of a little old lady praying,” Davis said… Nota’s situation sharply contrasts with pro-life activist Mark Houck, whose encounter with a Planned Parenthood escort led to the Federal Bureau of Investigation raiding his home and the Biden administration wanting him to face 11 years in prison… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-doj-recommends-no-jail-time-for-trans-vandal-of-catholic-church-f-catholics   Bragg’s effort to stop Congress from probing Trump case collides with Pentagon Papers precedent Manhattan DA’s office used $5,000 in federal asset forfeiture funds in Trump case, opening door for lawmakers’ power of the purse oversight… “When it comes to oversight investigation the principal of legitimate legislative purpose is supreme,” said Jason Foster, the former chief investigative counsel for the Senate Judiciary Committee and now head of the Empower Oversight whistleblower center. “You heard this phrase during the Jan. 6 probe. You heard Liz Cheney saying it all the time: Our legislative purpose is this or that because Congress can investigate anything if it has a legitimate legislative purpose.”… Foster and others said the power of the purse argument was so powerful that the U.S. Supreme Court even upheld late Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel’s right to publish highly classified portions of the Pentagon Papers laying out U.S. military failures in the Vietnam War as part of his work on infrastructure projects and to keep his legislative aides from having to testify before a federal grand jury investigating the leak… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/wedbraggs-effort-stop-congress-probing-trump-case-collides   Nearly third of New Yorkers want to move out, fed up with crime, housing costs, poor schools and more: poll https://trib.al/NKfa8HK   WaPo: Special Counsel Focuses on Trump Fundraising Off False Election Claims Prosecutors also sought information about an “Election Defense Fund” — cited in some fundraising emails that asked for donor money to challenge the election — and any documents about whether such a fund existed or whether there were plans for such a fund. Trump advisers told the Jan. 6 committee that references to the fund in pitches was a marketing tactic and no such segregated fund ever existed.    In interviews and grand jury appearances, witnesses have been asked how the hundreds of millions of dollars raised were planned to be spent, and how the funds were spent in 2021 and 2022…    The campaign raised more money in the days after the election than in some weeks leading up to the election — a financial windfall largely unspent by the time Trump left office… https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/04/12/trump-fundraising-fraud-special-counsel/   Ann Coulter: Trump swindles the deplorables   Jun 18, 2022 (This is a legit, huge problem for DJT!) As much as I’m enjoying the January 6th committee’s careful assembly of evidence proving former President Trump is a (), I wasn’t seeing much in the way of a criminal offense until this week’s underreported story about how Trump used his “STOP THE STEAL” fundraising appeals to grift his supporters out of $250 million, none of which was, in fact, used to fight election fraud. Instead, the $250 million seems to have been funneled exclusively to Trump businesses, family and friends… https://www.northwestsignal.net/article_e9dfd1e3-9afb-5620-9a3a-72fe5deebcad.html   Defrauding his most loyal and ardent supporters could be a silver bulletin for Trump’s candidacy and the means for DeSantis to unify The Cult of Trump with his supporters.   Atlanta newspaper stunned by Democrats picking Chicago for 2024 national convention: ‘Say it ain’t so, Joe’ (Team Obama demonstrates that it is in control of Biden and the Dem Party)    “By forgoing Atlanta for blue-state Illinois, national Democrats are also jettisoning a chance to gain a bigger foothold in a pivotal battleground state that both parties see as key to winning in 2024,” the outlet reported… (Team Obama wants to display the liberal utopia that Chicago has become!) https://www.foxnews.com/media/atlanta-newspaper-stunned-democrats-picking-chicago-2024-national-convention-aint-joe   Louisville shooter ‘was under the care of mental health professionals’ Louisville shooter Connor Sturgeon was being treated for depression and anxiety at the time of massacre, but had no history of anger issues, family source reveals…   https://trib.al/BmQLFD3   Louisville shooter Connor Sturgeon’s parents break silence, say he struggled with ‘mental health challenges’ https://t.co/p0c6MzGEKa   @ShellenbergerMD: BBC reporter claims there’s more “hateful” content on Twitter since takeover by @elonmusk but can’t give a single example. Amazing exchange.  https://t.co/Q1ATOC6dH1   Elon Musk slams BBC reporter in tense interview: ‘You just lied’ https://trib.al/ocoSck3   NPR quitting Twitter in anger over having its ‘credibility’ undermined by Elon Musk’s platform Twitter removed the “state-affiliated media” label it placed on NPR’s account and replaced it with a label that reads, “government funded media.”… In recent years, NPR has often catered to liberals with content that regularly parrots Democratic talking points. NPR famously refused to cover the Hunter Biden laptop scandal leading up to the 2020 election, which underscored the organization’s liberal reputation… https://www.foxnews.com/media/npr-quitting-twitter-anger-over-having-credibility-undermined-elon-musks-platform   @elonmusk: NPR literally said “Federal funding is essential to public radio” on their own website (now taken down).  What hypocrites!   Go Woke, Go Broke? NBA Blames Harsh Economy for Cutting Spending, Limiting Hiring https://www.outkick.com/nba-memo-freeze-hiring-cut-spending-recession-fears/   Leaked Social Media Pics from Bud Light Ad Exec Who Slammed ‘Fratty’ Culture Seem Pretty Fratty – In the album, there are photos of Heinerscheid drinking with others, and holding condoms up to their mouths. An article in the Harvard Crimson describes the club as a “haven of inebriated ditzes.”… https://dailycaller.com/2023/04/11/alissa-gordon-heinerscheid-leaked-social-media-pictures-bud-light-ad-executive-slammed-fratty-culture-seen-partying-drinking-isis-club/

GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING JOHN RUBINO

Global Monetary Experiment Ends in a Bloodbath – John Rubino

Global Monetary Experiment Ends in a Bloodbath – John Rubino

By Greg Hunter On April 11, 2023 In Market Analysis72 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Analyst and financial writer John Rubino said in February, “We are in a debt and death spiral” that will force dramatic changes on the world.  It was a direct hit because in March, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) tanked, and the FDIC and the U.S. Treasury were forced to basically back-stop the entire banking system.  The financial problems are far from over as Rubino explains, “Basically, interest rates have been artificially low for a decade . . . . In that time, crazy numbers of office buildings went up and were financed at really low rates. . . .  Now, office vacancy rates are spiking, which means office building are not profitable anymore.  The debts they have at 2% to 3% now have to be rolled over at 5%, 6% or 7%.  This means an already unprofitable office building is going to be even more unprofitable because of rising interest rates. Now, they want to sell this office space, and the price cuts that have to be done to get a deal done is 30% to 50% . . . . Some are down by 80%. . . . Local and regional banks already had their troubles last month but are going to have bigger troubles when all these building turn out to be not worth nearly as much as we thought they were.  This paper is in pension funds. . . . they are going to go into crisis.  So, real estate is liable to be the catalyst in crisis in several other sectors. . . . The government is going to have to let it burn and have a 1930’s style depression, or bail out everybody in sight. . . at the cost of rising inflation and the dollar tanking.”

Rubino says, “There is no fix. . . . There is no way to refill these buildings.  There is no way to refinance them without going bankrupt. . . . Sometime this year we are going to drop back into negative growth, and it’s going to be a bloodbath.  There is no solution, and these guys see it coming and they have no idea what to do about it. . . .This is the sector we want to watch and will be the catalyst for the next big crisis. . . .The next bailout crates a lot of new dollars, and that pushes down the dollar, and then, we are in the death spiral where there is no fix.  That is out there waiting to happen, a bailout so huge that it terrifies holders of the currency and Treasury bonds.  Then it’s game over. . . . This is just a question of when people figure this out.  That really is our situation right now.”

In closing, Rubino says, “This is a much bigger story than what happens to the dollar as the reserve currency.  This is the end of a global monetary experiment that is going to go out with a very fiery end.  This is not going to be fun to watch.”

Rubino advises people to get tangible assets such as food, water, tools, gold, silver, a car title and a garden, to name a few.  Rubino says, “We all should be preppers now.”

There is much more in the 48-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino and his new enterprise called Rubino.Substack.com for 4.11.23.

(https://usawatchdog.com/global-monetary-experiment-ends-in-bloodbath-john-rubino/)

After the Interview:

John Rubino is a prolific financial writer, and you can see it for free at Rubino.Substack.com.  There is even more cutting-edge original information and analysis if you subscribe.

You can also support John Rubino at the snail mail address below:

PO Box 953

Carlsborg, WA 98324

end

See you tomorrow

H