april 17/2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $7.15, TO $1994.95
SILVER PRICE CLOSED:DOWN 33 CENTS AT $24.99
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE $1994.85
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 25.03
Bitcoin morning price:, $29878 DOWN 371 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $29,552 DOWN 697 dollars
Platinum price closing $1052.95 UP $10.60
Palladium price; $1555.80 UP $65.60
END
I am back to my usual routine.
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2671.86 DOWN 8.14 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2732.50)
BRITISH GOLD: 1611.78 DOWN 2.32 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)
EURO GOLD: 1825.38 UP 3.11 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)
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COMEX DATA EXCHANGE:
COMEX//NOTICES
JPMorgan stopped 133/676 contracts
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT: 676 NOTICES FOR 67,600 OZ or 2.1026 TONNES
total notices so far: 23,168 contracts for 2,316,800 oz (72.062 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 6 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 30,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 313 for 1,565,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://////A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.//: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 469.780 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3384 TO 155,747 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.51 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.51). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A MONSTER GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 4511 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 18.330 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1059 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.055 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE)+ THE 18.33 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 19.985 MILLION OZ/ //// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –68 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 15,575 contracts: OR 77.875 MILLION OZ . (1558 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 77.875 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH
APRIL 77.875 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3384 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR $0.51 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1215 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 1.055 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK STANDING 18.33 MILLION OZ, THUS TOTAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN APRIL TOTALS 19.985 MILLION .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 4511 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 6 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 30,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8947 CONTRACTS TO 483,401 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 481 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 8947 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $38.90 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APR. AT 66.892 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A 40,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP:(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $38.90 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 7732 OI CONTRACTS (24.04 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1215 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 483,401
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7732 CONTRACTS WITH 8947 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1215 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7732 CONTRACTS OR 24.04 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1215 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (8947 //TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 8213 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 66.892 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 40,700 OZ//NEW STANDING 73.517 TONNES // ///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION//4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 36,670 CONTRACTS OR 3,667,000 OZ OR 114,05 TONNES IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3667 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 114.05 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 114.05/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 114.05 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3384 CONTRACTS OI TO 155,747 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 1059 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1466 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1059 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 3384 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1059 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4443 CONTRACTS.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //22.215 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.51 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 47.46 PTS OR 1.42% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 343.64 POINTS OR 1.65% /The Nikkei closed UP 21.31 PTS OR 0.07% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.23 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8703/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8720 /Oil DOWN TO 82.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.37 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8947 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 483,401 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $38.90 ON FRIDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1215 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 1215 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1215 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 7732 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1215 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 8947 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $38.90. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (73.517) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 73.517 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $38.90 //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 7732 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 24.040 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (66.892 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 40,700 OZ… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $38.90
WE HAD + ADDED 481 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7732 CONTRACTS OR 773,200 OZ OR 24.04TONNES.
Estimated gold comex today 177.039 POOR
final gold volumes/yesterday 275,256 FAIR
//APRIL 17/ APRIL 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1768.305 oz 55 kilobars Int. Delaware . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | NIL OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 676 notice(s) 67,600 OZ 2.1026 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 468 contracts 46,800 oz 1.4556 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 23,168 notices 2,316,800 OZ 72.062 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: NIL oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Int. Delaware: 1768.305 oz (55 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 1768.305 oz
Adjustments; 1
I) OUT OF MANFRA: 9452.394 OZ DEALER TO CUSTOMER
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 1144 contracts having LOST 315 contracts. We had 722 contracts served ON FRIDAY so we GAINED 407 contracts or 40,700 oz were QUEUE JUMPED.
May LOST 262 contracts up to 1762.
June LOST 10,739 contracts DOWN to 403,981 contracts.
We had 676 contracts filed for today representing 67,600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 165 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 676 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 133 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,168 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (APRIL. 1144 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 676 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,363,600 OZ OR 73.517 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month: No of notices filed so far (23,168 x 100 oz)+ 1144 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (676)x 100 oz} which equals 2,363,600 oz standing OR 73.517 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 73.517 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,703,295.912 OZ 52,97 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,946,829.863 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,288,015.346 (382.208 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,658,814.517 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,584,720 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 329.229 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 17//2023// THE APRIL 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 209,922.700 oz Int. Delaware CNT . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | nil oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 6 CONTRACT(S) (30,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 18 contracts (90,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 313 Contracts (1,565,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 0 deposits into the customer account
Total deposits: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 141.758 million oz/273.856 million =51.85% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Int. Delaware 67,641.810 oz
ii) Out of CNT 142,280.890 oz
Total withdrawals; 209,922.700 oz
adjustments: 0
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.063 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 273.854 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 24 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 5320 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 74,584
JUNE HAD A 36 CONTRACT GAIN TO 147
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 6 for 30,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 72,606 GOOD
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 118,129 STRONG
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 313 x 5,000 oz = 1,565,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL(24) and the number of notices served upon today 6 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2023 contract month: 313 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (24) – number of notices served upon today (6 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL. contract month equates to 1.655 million oz +/ NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY: 0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MONTH OF APRIL: 18.33 MILLION OZ// THUS TOTAL SILVER OZ STANDING: 19.985 MILLION OZ//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES
APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES
APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES
APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91
APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23
MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES
MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES
MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 927.72 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/?//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412
MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ
MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ
MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 469.780 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//
FIRST GRADUALLY THEN SUDDENLY – THE EVERYTHING COLLAPSE
Egon von Greyerz
April 16, 2023
The inevitable consequence of the current Global Debt Bubble will be the Bankruptcy of the financial system and many of its participants.
The one Swiss and three US banks that just went under is just a foretaste of what is to come.
As the US and European banking systems come under pressure, The Everything Collapse will cause a collapse in financial markets of a magnitude that has never before been seen in history. Since the global financial system is a mesh which reaches every financial player in the world, from sovereigns to private individuals, no-one will be able to escape the TheEverything Collapse.
So how will the The Everything Collapse or Bankruptcy start. Well, it has already started but the world hasn’t noticed it yet. Four collapsed banks have already been shaken off by investors as a light headache which was cured by a few hundred billion dollars of central bank aspirin.
As Hemingway said, you go bankrupt first Gradually and then Suddenly. But no one should be deceived by the gradual phase of bankruptcy or collapse we are in currently. We have just had the final warning. This gradual phase might last a few months or longer but it is the last chance investors have to put their house in order. If you wait until the sudden phase, the panic will paralyse you as you wait for a recovery which will not happen. Instead, the horrid losses will just get worse.
So what will actually collapse? Well that’s obvious! The Everything Collapse is primarily a debt crisis. Global debt has trebled in this century and if we include derivatives (a major part of which will become debt), we are looking at up to $3 quadrillion. This is 20X global GDP and obviously of a magnitude that will cause major harm to the world.
US & EUROPEAN BANKS’ RISKY BALANCE SHEETS
As interest rates rise both in the US and EU, outstanding credit is contracting. In the US, the balance sheets for all banks to Tier 1 capital is at a 30 year high. (See chart). This is a precarious level which puts the US banking system in a very fragile position. US banks must now shrink their balance sheets substantially by demanding loan repayments.
The situation in Europe is just as dire. Eurozone banks have tightened company credit the most since 2011 and expect to continue to do so.
CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH RATES AND CREDIT CONTRACTION
The high interest rates combined with a forced credit contraction will not only put pressure on the borrowers but also on the US and EU banking systems. As bank defaults accelerate, the carousel of central bank money printing will resume at an ever increasing pace.
Coming back to what will collapse, it is obvious that it will be primarily bank debt. So not only will credit be expensive but it will also be scarce. This will lead to major defaults by borrowers and solvency pressures for the banks.
Central bankers are opportunists who can never tell the truth. Their main purpose is to control the financial system in their and their banker friends’ favour. They are not stupid and most certainly understand the consequences of their constant manipulation of markets and their manufacturing of fake money. Their actions are totally in line with what Mayer Amschel Rothschild, a German banker stated in the late 1700s: “Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.”
As I just mentioned, the other side of contracting bank balance sheets will be the banks’ infinite liquidity requirements.
So the next stage of the The Everything Collapse will be a constant pressure on Western banks’ liquidity and solvency. And the consequence of that is obvious – UNLIMITED MONEY PRINTING of a magnitude never seen before in history.
Remember that central banks have no REAL money and therefore extremely weak balance sheets. If they were a commercial bank, they would have been bankrupt long ago. But they have a very friendly partner in crime who is forced to collude in order to provide the only solution they know.
CONSEQUENCES OF THE EVERYTHING COLLAPSE
For us normal mortals, when ends don’t meet we need to either increase income or reduce expenses. But that is a formula that governments seldom practice and certainly not in the last 50+ years. They only know one solution which is to create more debt in order to solve their debt problem. That obviously sounds absurd but it is the only way a government can buy votes and stay in power.
Again, the consequences at the very end of a credit cycle will clearly be cataclysmic.
What will rapidly follow is:
- CURRENCY DEBASEMENT LEADING TO COLLAPSE
- HIGH INFLATION LEADING TO HYPERINFLATION
- FOOD AND ENERGY SHORTAGES
- DEBT DEFAULTS LEADING TO DEBT COLLAPSE
- IMPLOSION OF BUBBLE ASSETS (stocks, bonds, property) in real terms – Gold
- FAILURE OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM
- POLITICAL & SOCIAL TURMOIL – CIVIL UNREST
- GEOPOLITICAL PROBLEMS
- THE FALL OF THE WEST AND RISE OF THE EAST AND SOUTH
So how long will this take. Obviously no one knows.
But what we do know is that the risk is greater than at any time in history and this on a global scale. Every corner of the world will suffer with Europe, North America and Japan particularly exposed.
So initially it will happen Gradually but at some point the Suddenly phase will come whether that is in a few months time or in a few years.
Like with any impending risk, the key is obviously to protect against the risk today. I have stressed so many times that it is imperative to buy the insurance before the fire starts since it obviously will not be available after the event.
BANKRUPT – BANCA ROTTA
The word Bankruptcy originates from the Italian Banca Rotta or broken bench. Bankers in the 16th century Italy would conduct their business from a bench or table. When they could no longer fulfil their obligations, their bench was smashed to signify that they were out of business. Although the word rotten is said to derive from old Norse, it is not unlikely that the origin is the same as rotta. A broken or rotten bank/bench.
And this is the state of the world financial system today. The global banking system is not just broken, it is rotten to the core or in other words BANKRUPT.
In the last few weeks, we have witnessed three US and one Swiss bank collapse within a matter of days. The US banks, Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank all imploded within a matter of hours or days. They were all involved in the tech and crypto industry.
Their management had ZERO understanding of risk management, investing in long term bonds at the low of interest rates which then had to be liquidated at a massive loss.
A basic AI (Artificial Intelligence) computer programme would have managed these banks much better as long as they had not been programmed with greed as a primary requirement.
I wrote about the Credit Suisse collapse a few weeks ago: THIS IS IT! – THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS TERMINALLY BROKEN and warned our readers about it already 2 years ago – ARCHEGOS & CREDIT SUISSE – THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG
So Switzerland’s second bank, an insolvent Credit Suisse was absorbed by the No 1 Swiss bank – UBS.
The question is now if this merger is the blind leading the blind or 1+1 making a 1/2.
UBS was created by the merger of two Swiss banks in 1998. Since then it has had its fair share of scandals and losses. In 2008 for example, UBS lost CHF20 billion and has lost a few billions since then on fines and trading losses. Then there was the attack on undeclared US accounts (which every Swiss bank had) which put major pressure on the bank.
The problem is now that the new UBS/CS is 200% of Swiss GDP. Add to that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is also bigger than Swiss GDP. And the SNB lost CHF122 billion in 2022 on currency and investment positions.
As I have stressed in previous articles, the Swiss banking system is not really worse than any banking system but its adventures confirm my view that no one should hold any major assets in any bank in any country. As I have stressed above, the Western financial system is rotten and not suitable for holding investors’ assets.
Regardless of the Swiss banking system, the Swiss economy is the strongest in the Western world and probably the whole world. Debt to GDP is under 40%, the budget deficit is very small and inflation is the lowest in the Western world. And the political system with direct democracy, is the best in the world.
Remember that the whole financial system is totally interconnected and once one major bank falls, the dominos will start falling throughout the whole system.
Yes, central banks will initially print unlimited amounts of money. But once the derivatives start to collapse, the money printing will be meaningless as the money at that point will be worthless.
GOLD IS ETERNAL MONEY
We have invested in physical gold held outside the banking system for our clients and ourselves for over 20 years.
During that time gold has gone up at least 7- 8X in most currencies and 100s to 1000s of times in weak currencies such as in Venezuela, Argentina, Zimbabwe, Turkey etc.
In spite of gold having appreciated by 700-800% in Western countries in this century, less than 0.5% of global financial assets are invested in gold.
Banks, investment advisors and fund managers don’t understand gold. Also, they can of course neither justify their role nor their existence if they bought just one asset around 20-22 years ago and just sat on it. Their raison d’être is to churn commission by trading frequently and speak to their clients in investment gobbledegook that makes them sound competent. But in reality 99% of investment professionals underperform the market so they are a redundant.
I would call this group of so-called experts not just incompetent but also negligent.
As all fiat money has gone to ZERO throughout history, without fail, any individual or investment manager who holds funds in cash is guaranteed to see the value evaporate over time. Remember that fiat money is down at least 97- 99% in all currencies since 1971 measured in real money – GOLD.
Remember also that Central Bankers are gold’s best friend. Throughout history they have always destroyed the value of money and thus supportive for gold. And today when the biggest money printing in history is about to start, holding physical gold outside the banking system is a SINE QUA NON (absolutely essential).
As physical gold will outperform virtually all major investments, in real terms, over the coming years, it is critical to own if you want to avoid a total destruction of your wealth.
Please remember to hold it in physical form in a safe jurisdiction and outside a fractured financial system.
Gold is nature’s money and therefore eternal money.
end
END
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Ronan Manly: JPMorgan traders appeal, claiming that their ‘spoofing’ hurt no one
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-04-17 12:19Section: Daily Dispatches
12:19p Monday, April 17, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly reports today that the former JPMorganChase gold and silver futures traders convicted of “spoofing” the markets are appealing their convictions by asserting that their “spoofing” did no actual harm, though it generated misleading prices on which the world traded. Manly’s report is headlined “JPMorgan Gold Traders Show Contempt for the Law, Plan to Appeal their Convictions” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
For your interest…
Swiss-owned company’s Russian gold trades expose gap in Western sanctions
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-04-17 10:30Section: Daily Dispatches
By Harry Dempsey and Chris Cook
Financial Times, London
Monday, April 17, 2023
A Swiss commodity trader’s Abu Dhabi subsidiary has been able to buy tens of millions of dollars of Russian gold despite a ban on Swiss entities undertaking such activity, the latest evidence of a gap in Western sanctions against Moscow.
Switzerland last August adopted the EU’s prohibition of “the direct or indirect import, purchase, or transfer” of Russian gold including shipments into third countries, which was among a raft of Western measures introduced in response to Russian president Vladimir Putin’s assault on Ukraine.
But a provision in Swiss law allows its companies’ overseas subsidiaries to trade Russian commodities as long as they are “legally independent” — a term the Swiss sanctions enforcement agency declined to define. …
… For the reminder of the report:
https://www.ft.com/content/6d51fd1e-07b4-4aa6-95b0-e1634816bf3d
END
Penny keeps proclaiming currency devaluation
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-04-16 16:32Section: Daily Dispatches
Not a Penny More: The Time to Abolish the U.S. Coin Has Come
By Sam Learner
Financial Times, London
Sunday, April 16, 2023
They pile up in drawers. They’re taken or left on a whim at store counters. Vending machines and parking metres won’t accept them. And last year they cost the U.S. Treasury $100 million more to produce than they’re worth. Despite all this, the penny — America’s copper-plated 1-cent coin — persists.
For decades .U.S lawmakers, journalists, and penny-jar owners have debated whether the coin’s declining value justifies its continued production. All the while it gets less valuable with each passing year. Inflation has hit it from both sides: production and distribution costs have gone up while the actual utility of the coin goes down.
While the volume of cash transactions may be declining, the penny has never cost more to produce than it did in 2022, at 2.72 cents per 1-cent coin. Meanwhile, it is now worth just 80% of its value in 2017, the last time a major legislative effort to phase it out was introduced. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.ft.com/content/2a4332d1-9faa-4325-a2b7-26203c44f12d
END
It certainly will!!
Yellen says sanctions may risk U.S. dollar’s hegemony
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-04-16 16:18Section: Daily Dispatches
From Agence-France Presse
via Al Arabiya, Dubai
Sunday, April 16, 2023
Economic sanctions imposed on Russia and other countries by the United States put the dollar’s dominance at risk as targeted nations seek an alternative, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said today.
“There is a risk when we use financial sanctions that are linked to the role of the dollar that over time it could undermine the hegemony of the dollar,” Yellen said on CNN
“Of course it does create a desire on the part of China, of Russia, of Iran to find an alternative,” she told the network’s Fareed Zakaria in an interview. “But the dollar is used as a global currency” because it is “not easy for other countries to find an alternative with the same properties.”
The robust U.S. capital markets and rule of law “are essential in a currency that is going to be used globally for transactions,” she added. “And we haven’t seen any other country that has the basic … institutional infrastructure that would enable its currency to serve the world like this.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Why should these banks be different than any other/
(Garowe)
Rogue banks and bankers in Kenya probed for rigging local exchange rate
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-04-16 16:00Section: Daily Dispatches
They seem to have learned their techniques from JPMorganChase traders.
* * *
From Garowe Online, Garowe, Somalia
Sunday, April 16, 2023
NAIROBI, Kenya — A number of undisclosed banks in Kenya are under investigation by the Competition Authority of Kenya for allegedly fixing foreign exchange trades, adding a fresh twist to the crisis that has seen lenders run out of dollars on some days.
CAK reveals that the investigations are ongoing into the possible manipulation and collusion over the dollar exchange rate, exposing bankers to fines and up to five years in jail if convicted.
Reliable sources say that CAK is pursuing allegations that some dealers at the banks used electronic chat rooms and instant messaging to coordinate their trading activities when giving quotes to customers who buy or sell currencies. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Bolivia is very rich in silver and gold and yet they are slaves to the uSA dollar
(Associate Press)
Another country rich in gold and silver makes itself a slave to the U.S. dollar
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-04-15 12:00Section: Daily Dispatches
U.S. Dollar Scarcity Threatens Bolivia’s ‘Economic Miracle’
By Carlos Valdez
Associated Press
Saturday, April 15, 2023
LA PAZ, Bolivia — Sofia Andrade, a lawyer, chose over the past month to withdraw all her dollar savings from the bank as the US currency became scarce on the streets of Bolivia.
“I prefer to have them at home,” she said. “I fear they won’t let me withdraw them later.”
Like her, many Bolivians are withdrawing their dollar deposits or rushing to buy the U.S. currency amid increased concern about Bolivia’s economic fragility, a marked change for a country that for more than a decade experienced what many called an “economic miracle” amid strong growth, record exports, low inflation, a fixed exchange rate, and subsidized gasoline.
The scarcity of the greenback, which opposition politicians attribute to the Central Bank running out of hard currency reserves and the government blames on speculation, means that for the first time since 2011, a parallel market for the U.S. dollar has emerged that charges slightly more than the official price.
When the shortage began earlier this year, hundreds spent the night outside the Central Bank to buy dollars at the official exchange rate. A new system has now been established to buy the currency online. The physical lines have disappeared, but the problem remains and is reminding Bolivians of past economic woes. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://apnews.com/article/bolivia-economy-us-dollar-42f815800dd18eb0952590bb8b968cfd
* * *
end
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
-END-
.
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//,MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8703
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8720
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 47.46 POINTS OR 1.42%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 343.64 PTS OR 1.65%
2. Nikkei closed UP 21.31 PTS OR 0.07%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.36 EURO RISES TO 1.0982 UP 5 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.479Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 133.99 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.4675***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.307*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.496…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.302
3j Gold at $2008.55 silver at: 25.39 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 24 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.54//
3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 133.99 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .479% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8937 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9817 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.537 UP 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.753 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.148 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.38…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 3 BASIS PTS AT 3.696
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Flat In Quiet Session As Attention Turns To Company Earnings
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 08:00 AM
US stock futures are off to a muted start to the week as investor focus turns to first-quarter earnings for clues on the health of corporate America amid the Fed’s own admission it is hoping to trigger a recession in the coming months. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 were both up a modest 0.1% following Friday’s drop despite better-than-expected quarterly reports from the big banks as markets were unnerved by Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish comments favoring further policy tightening. His views caused investors to ramp up bets on another rate rise in June, following one in May, and also to scale back expectations for rate cuts later in the year. In Europe too, the Stoxx 600 Index erased an earlier gain.
Among notable premarket movers, Chinese EV maker XPeng soared after the firm unveiled a plan to cut manufacturing costs at the Shanghai International Auto Show. Other US-listed Chinese stocks also rise, rebounding from last week’s slump. Prometheus Biosciences shares surged as much 71% in US premarket trading after Merck struck a deal to buy the biotech company for around $10.8 billion, though traded slightly below the $200/share offer. Analysts were positive on the deal despite its 75% premium to Prometheus’s closing price last Friday, saying that it will help Merck to diversify away from its traditional focus on oncology, while brokers saw no obstacles to the transaction going through. Here are the most notable pre-market movers:
- Alphabet fell as much as 2% in premarket trading on Monday after a report said Microsoft’s Bing might replace Alphabet’s Google as the default search service on Samsung Electronics devices.
- Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall in US premarket trading as Bitcoin dips below the $30,000 mark, with the digital token remaining in a range after breaching the closely watched level. Cipher Mining -3.8%, Riot Platforms -5.2%.
US stocks have swung around in a tight range in April after a strong rally in the first quarter as investors veered between worries about a recession and bets that cooling inflation would prompt the Federal Reserve to stop rate hikes soon. Corporate earnings will provide the next clue about the impact of slowing growth, with analysts expecting the biggest year-on-year decline since 2020.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said market participants have remained cautious despite the strong showing from the big banks as economic data suggest the Fed could hike rates again at its next meeting. Recent data points to inflation and employment markets steadily softening, encouraging some equity bulls. First-quarter earnings from JPMorgan and Citigroup also outpaced expectations on Friday.
“After the data last week, there is a less pressing need to hike rates, plus there is an apparent easing in banking tensions,” said Peter Kinsella, head of FX strategy at Swiss asset manager UBP. “If we get a Fed rate hike in May, I think it will be one and done.”
Despite this, Kinsella predicts headwinds for equity markets from share valuations that remain expensive, especially in relation to a slowing economy. Investors are preferring to park their cash in money-market funds, he noted.
“The current season’s earnings profile is rather opaque,” Kinsella added. “The banks last week did better than expected, but we have to see what the reporting season will be like from everyone else. But the S&P is expensive at current levels so you have to ask yourself if there is really much material upside from here.”
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson once again – and for the 6th month running – said profit expectations were still too high even as that has been long factored into prices. The strategist also warned – as per usual – that the S&P 500 was at risk of further declines as the percentage of stocks outperforming the index on a three-month rolling basis was at a record low. Wilson sees the biggest risk to the rally in technology stocks if bond yields rise. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s so-called MACD momentum — which shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price — is now weakening, Bloomberg noted while Goldman’s Prime Brokerage notes that “franchise flows have shifted to local selling of tech this week and Nasdaq is only up in two of the past ten sessions (also note that it stands exactly where it stood in … the spring of 2021).”
European stocks are on course to extend their winning streak to six sessions as investors turn their attention to earnings season starting later this week. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.1% while the FTSE 100 outperforms its regional peers with a gain of 0.5%.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced as investors bet on a faster-than-expected recovery in China ahead of key economic data releases, offsetting losses in technology names. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.3%, with Hong Kong and China benchmarks leading gains in the region. GDP and retail sales data due Tuesday will probably show the economy picked up in the first quarter after Covid Zero ended. The housing market also showed signs of stabilization, with home prices increasing for a second consecutive month in March.
The optimism about China countered weakness in tech, with shares of Indian IT services firm Infosys slumping the most in three years after disappointing earnings guidance and a wave of brokerage downgrades. Taiwan’s MediaTek also contributed to the sector’s losses on profit concerns. Investors grappled with expectations of elevated inflation, with most seeing at least one more interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this year. Still, a raft of strong earnings from US banks including JPMorgan and Citigroup have helped calm concerns around lenders’ stability.
“Asian equities registered positive returns amid the limited spill-over effects on Asian financials and overall regional indices in Asia from the US and European banking crises,” said Marty Dropkin, head of equities Asia Pacific at Fidelity International. He added that China’s reopening is “providing a significant boost for equities within the broader market.”
Japanese stocks climbed for a seventh day, with the Topix completing its longest winning streak in 13 months, as strong earnings from JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup helped calm concerns around US bank stability. The Topix rose 0.4% to 2,026.97 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.1% to 28,514.78. Both gauges reached their highest level in a month. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 1.4%. Bank stocks such as Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui and Mizuho were also among major contributors. “The biggest driver is that the financial instability in the US has subsided considerably,” said Takeru Ogihara, chief strategist at Asset Management One.“However, Japanese equities are now hovering at the upper end of the range, a level that at which further rallies could trigger a selloff.”
Australian stocks rose to an eight-week high, boosted by banks; the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 7,381.50, rising for a second session to the highest level since Feb. 16. The benchmark was boosted by gains in banks and real estate stocks. US and European futures made small gains along with Asian stocks Monday as investors weighed the prospects for more rate hikes and an economic slowdown. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to 11,936.15.
India stocks gauge snapped its longest run of advances in more than two years as cautious outlook and lackluster earnings by technology bellwether Infosys weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.9% to 59,910.75 in Mumbai on Monday, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.7%. The gauges had risen for nine consecutive sessions through Thursday. Trading in India was shut due to a local holiday on Friday. BSE’s gauges of small- and mid-sized firms however extended the rebound, stretching gains to the 10th consecutive day as they trim yearly losses to less than 3%. Infosys contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 9.4%, its biggest single-day plunge since March 2020. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 16 rose, while 14 fell
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2%. The British pound is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% versus the greenback.
In rates, treasuries slightly cheaper across the curve with front-end underperforming, two-year yields rising 2bps to 4.12% after jumping 13bps on Friday, and extending Friday’s flattening move as 5s30s spread briefly drops below 10bp. 10-year yields around 3.54% are cheaper by 2.5bp vs Friday’s close with bunds lagging slightly in the sector and gilts outperforming. Odds of an additional 25bp rate hike for May meeting firm, while some small amount of hike premium is also priced into the June Fed OIS. German two-year yields are flat at 2.89% while the UK equivalent drops 3bps to 3.59%.
In commodities, crude futures are in the red with WTI losing 0.4% to trade near $82.20. Spot gold add 0.4% to around $2,011.
Bitcoin is softer in otherwise limited trade, back below the $30k mark and shy of the recent USD 31k peak; the current pullback keeps BTC well above last week’s $28k trough.
It’s a slow start to the week with just the April Empire Manufacturing index on deck (est. -18.0, prior -24.6) and the April NAHB Housing Market Index (consensus expects it to rise from 44 to 45. After the close we get the latest TIC flow data. Investors are awaiting reports on Monday from Charles Schwab and State Street. The former will be in particular focus after a 40% share price plunge year-to-date, caused by rising interest rates. Later in the week, Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are due to deliver results along with Netflix Inc. and Tesla Inc.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,168.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 467.46
- MXAP up 0.2% to 163.58
- MXAPJ up 0.2% to 529.36
- Nikkei little changed at 28,514.78
- Topix up 0.4% to 2,026.97
- Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 20,782.45
- Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3,385.61
- Sensex down 1.0% to 59,832.23
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,381.52
- Kospi up 0.2% to 2,575.91
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.43%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.0975
- Brent Futures down 0.5% to $85.92/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,010.24
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.17% to 101.73
Top Overnight News
- China is refusing to schedule a trip for US Sec of State Blinken to visit the country due to concerns about the FBI releasing a report into the spy balloon recently shot down by the Pentagon. FT
- Prices of new homes in China rose at the fastest pace in 21 months in March, in the latest sign of green shoots for the world’s second-biggest economy as it recovers from three years of pandemic restrictions and Beijing eases up a crackdown on the debt-laden property sector. New home prices rose 0.5 per cent on the previous month, according to official data, following a 0.3 per cent increase in February. FT
- China is starting to target western interests in the country after five years of snowballing trade and technology restrictions spearheaded by the US under presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Over the past two months, Chinese officials have slapped new sanctions on US weapons companies Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, launched an investigation into US chipmaker Micron, raided US due diligence firm Mintz and apprehended local staff, detained a senior executive from Japan’s Astellas Pharma group and hit London-headquartered Deloitte with a record fine. FT
- India’s wholesale price index for Mar collapses to just +1.34% Y/Y, down from +3.85% in Feb and below the St’s +1.6% forecast. RTRS
- Regional banks are set to face more stringent global regulations as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision considers steps to prevent the types of runs that felled Silicon Valley in March. FT
- Yellen thinks tightening lending standards at US banks, a function of the March regional bank turmoil, will eliminate the need for additional Fed hikes. CNBC
- As Russia scours the globe for buyers of its energy products, it is finding eager trade partners in an unlikely place: The oil-rich petrostates of the Persian Gulf. Since Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine cut off Russia from many of its established trading partners, state companies from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have stepped in to take advantage of discounted prices for Russian products, according to oil executives and industry analysts. WSJ
- Merck & Co. will buy Prometheus for $10.8 billion in cash to boost its immunology drugs pipeline as it braces for patent expirations. The offer was 75% higher than Friday’s close. More M&A: CVC and Francisco Partners are in talks to buy payments firm Network for about $2.6 billion. And Apollo’s busy. THG said it got preliminary offer from the firm and engineering company John Wood said it will engage with Apollo after a $2 billion approach. BBG
- Google’s employees were shocked when they learned in March that the South Korean consumer electronics giant Samsung was considering replacing Google with Microsoft’s Bing as the default search engine on its devices. The tech giant is sprinting to protect its core business with a flurry of projects, including updates to its search engine and plans for an all-new one. NYT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly higher albeit with gains capped in the absence of any major macro catalysts from over the weekend and as participants brace for upcoming economic releases from China including GDP data. ASX 200 was positive as gains in tech and financials atoned for the losses in the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 was indecisive around the 28,500 level with some of the biggest movers driven by their outlooks. Hang Seng and were underpinned after the PBoC vowed to make prudent monetary policyShanghai Comp precise and forceful, as well as increase support to expand domestic demand and keep liquidity ample
Top Asian News
- PBoC conducted CNY 170bln (vs. CNY 150bln maturing) in 1-year MLF lending with the rate kept at 2.75%, while it injected CNY 20bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00%.
- PBoC Governor Yi suggested that history shows that central bank interventions in the FX market will sooner or later be defeated by markets and said that during times of market stability, they can phase out currency intervention by gradually reducing the amount and frequency of intervention. Yi also said in guiding monetary policy, they try to make the real interest rate slightly below the potential growth rate, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Yi called for collective action and “fair burden sharing” to address debt according to Caixin Global.issues of developing countries,
- China’s Mofcom said China resolutely opposes US sanctions on some Chinese firms and that the move affects the security and stability of global supply chains, while it called for the US to immediately correct its wrongdoing and stop unreasonable suppression of Chinese companies. Furthermore, it said that China will firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies, according to Reuters.
- China is beginning a surgical retaliation against foreign companies after the US-led tech blockade, according to FT.
- China has refused to permit US Secretary of State Blinken to travel to China due to concerns about a pending FBI report on the investigation of the downed Chinese spy balloon, according to FT.
- Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi said during a meeting with German Foreign Minister Baerbock that Taiwan’s return to China was an important component of the post-World War II international order and hopes that Germany will support China’s peaceful reunification cause, while Wang added that China is willing to strengthen exchanges and communication with Germany, enhance mutual understanding and prepare for a new round of Sino-German consultations.
- China successfully launched a rocket carrying a weather satellite on Sunday, while Taiwan’s defence ministry said some rocket debris from China’s satellite launch fell into the “warning zone” in the sea north of Taiwan but did not affect the safety of Taiwan’s territory, according to Reuters.
- Japanese police arrested one suspect after a smoke bomb incident during an outdoor speech by PM Kishida, according to Kyodo.
- BoJ is reportedly mulling CPI projections for FY25 between 1.6-1.9%, according to reports citing JiJi news.
European bourses are mixed after initial tentative upside, with newsflow limited and specific catalysts light currently. Sectors feature Tech names as the laggard, with chip names pressured amid FT reports that Musk intends an AI start-up to rival OpenAI and has purchased Nvidia (NVDA) processors. Stateside, futures have been pivoting the unchanged mark throughout the APAC session and European morning ahead of earnings. Apple’s (AAPL) sales in India reportedly rose to almost USD 6bln (prev. USD 4.1bln) in the past year, according to Bloomberg sources. ChatGPT and other advance AI are reportedly facing a new regulatory push in Europe, according to WSJ.
Top European News
- BoE is considering urgent reform of the deposit guarantee scheme in the wake of the SVB collapse, according to FT.
- BoE’s Tenreyro said on Friday that they need to be patient over the impact of past rate rises on inflation and that they are yet to see most of the impact.
- UK PM Sunak is considering reducing the UK’s inheritance tax ahead of the next general election, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg. It was separately reported that UK PM Sunak according to AFP.cancelled the building of new ‘smart motorways’ amid concerns about safety and costs, UK Chancellor Hunt is reportedly ‘wary’ of new subsidies as companies look to the US for government support, according to Sky News.
- UK Royal Mail and the Communication Workers Union reached a negotiators’ agreement in principle over pay and employment terms, according to a joint statement.
- Barclays (BARC LN) is to cut more than 100 investment banking jobs, according to Sky News
- ECB’s Lagarde said during a CBS interview that she can’t imagine the US defaulting on debt and said US-China bipolarisation of the world could crimp growth.
- ECB’s Centeno says for the ECB’s May decision, either zero or 25 “are the numbers that are feasible” when it comes to rates, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Kazaks says they have the option for a 25bp or 50bp move in May, via Leta news.
- European Commission said it is aware of Poland and Hungary’s announcement to ban imports of grain and other agricultural products from Ukraine to protect their local agricultural sectors, while a spokesperson said that trade policy is of EU exclusive competence and unilateral actions are not acceptable, according to Reuters.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent futures have tilted lower after trading horizontally since the reopening of futures amid a lack of pertinent catalysts overnight and with participants awaiting key data releases.
- G7 ministers agreed to speed up the phaseout of fossil fuels and shift towards renewable energy, according to FT.
- Saudi Arabia boosted its sovereign wealth fund with the transfer of an almost USD 80bln stake in Saudi Aramco to the PIF, according to FT.
- QatarEnergy signed an MOU with Namibia to enhance energy cooperation which includes exploring
- further investment opportunities in Namibia, according to Reuters.
- Norsk Hydro announced employees at Hydro Karmøy and Hydro Ardal will commence strike action this Monday, while corporate employees in the accounting department at Sunndalsøra will also go on strike, according to Reuters.
- EU representatives are poised to discuss grain export issues this week, according to EU officials cited by Reuters.
- Base metals are predominantly lower after mostly firmer APAC trade, overnight focus was on trade within marked upside attributed to reports that Wa State intends to suspend operations from August
Fixed Income
- Bonds remain bearish and prone to further downside, as lose 134.00+ status, probe 102.00 andBunds Gilts T-slips to fresh 114-22+ overnight low.note
- 10 year benchmark yields extend rebounds towards 2.5%, 3.7% and 3.55% in Germany, the UK and US respectively ahead of busy PM agenda including House speaker on the US debt ceiling.
Geopolitics
- Russian President Putin held a working meeting with Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu in Moscow on Sunday, according to Tass citing Kremlin spokesman Peskov. It was also reported that Russian President Putin praised ties between the Russian and Chinese militaries, while Chinese Defence Minister Li said China is willing to work with Russia to have close communications between their militaries and China is according to Bloomberg andwilling to strengthen multilateral coordination and cooperation with Russia, Reuters.
- Russia said Wagner Group fighters continued to advance in Bakhmut and captured two more areas of the city, according to RIA. It was also reported that Wagner Group chief Prigozhin said the Ukrainian counteroffensive could succeed because of the ‘lazy Kremlin elite’ and wants to negotiate an end to the war, according to The Telegraph.
- Ukrainian Finance Minister Marchenko said the IMF-led USD 115bln support package boosted confidence that Ukraine can prevail in the war against Russia and that G7 finance officials underscored commitment to continue supporting Ukraine as long as needed, while he is confident the US Congress will maintain bipartisan consensus backing support for Ukraine, according to euters.
- G7 Sapporo Communique stated that they condemn Russia’s illegal, unjustifiable and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine and they stand ready to support a sustainable, resilient recovery and green reconstruction of Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- EU foreign policy chief Borrell said the only answer for the Ukraine crisis is to do more, faster for Ukraine and that they need to continue support for Ukraine and defend its territory gainst Russian invasion.
- Borrell said that China should talk to Ukraine and refrain from military assistance with Russia, while he noted the EU has an interest in peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and that changing the status quo unilaterally according to Reuters.will be unacceptable, Arab Gulf foreign ministers discussed the Syrian crisis and Damascus’s potential return to the Arab League although no decision was made, according to the Saudi Foreign Ministry cited by Reuters.
- Sudan’s army conducted strikes on paramilitary bases amid a deadly power struggle, according to Reuters.
- US Navy said a US warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, while China’s military also stated that it followed and monitored a US destroyer which sailed through the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters.
- South Korea, US and Japan are to hold missile defence drills to counter North Korea, according to Reuters.
- It was also reported that a South Korean navy vessel fired warning shots after a North Korean patrol boat crossed the maritime border, according to Yonhap
- Russian President Putin met with Defence Minister Shoigu; Shoigu reported on the drills of the Russian Pacific fleet.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: April Empire Manufacturing, est. -18.0, prior -24.6
- 10:00: April NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 45, prior 44
- 16:00: Feb. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $183.1b
DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap
Since our last edition on Friday, there’s been no doubt that markets are continuing to shrug off the financial turmoil that brought such volatile conditions only a month ago. In fact by the end of last week, the VIX index of volatility had closed at just 17.07pts, which is its lowest level since 4th January 2022, on the same day that the S&P 500 hit its record intraday high. Other measures are painting a similar picture as well, with the MOVE index of Treasury volatility beneath its pre-SVB levels again, whilst Bloomberg’s index of US financial conditions has now erased more than 80% of the tightening seen last month. So for all the fears that we might have been on the verge of another financial crisis, for the time being at least we’ve seen a remarkable decline in volatility.
With growing signs that markets have stabilised, there’ve also been growing expectations that the Fed are set to deliver another hike at their next meeting on May 3. That was ramped up on Friday by several factors. One was a speech by Fed Governor Waller, who explicitly said that “monetary policy needs to be tightened further.” Second was the University of Michigan’s survey of inflation expectations in April, where the 1yr measure bounced up to 4.6%. That was a full point higher than the previous month, as well as the biggest monthly jump in nearly two years. And third, measures of core retail sales were a bit stronger than expected in March, with the measure excluding autos and gas stations only down by -0.3% (vs. -0.6% expected).
With all that in mind, futures took the chances of a rate hike in May up to 81% by the close on Friday, where it remains this morning. That’s the highest it’s been since the SVB collapse, and further out the curve we’ve seen much the same picture. For instance, the rate expected by the December meeting is now up to 4.50% this morning, having closed as low as 3.75% at the height of the turmoil in mid-March. Remember that the decision is now only two weeks on Wednesday, and this week is the last time we’ll be able to hear from Fed speakers before their blackout period begins on Saturday.
This morning in Asia, equity markets have put in a mixed performance. Chinese equities have outperformed, with the Shanghai Composite (+0.98%) leading gains, followed by the CSI 300 (+0.86%) and the Hang Seng (+0.54%). That’s come in spite of the fact that the People’s Bank of China only made a net injection of 20bn yuan in April to banks through the medium-term lending facility, which is the lowest since November. They also left the 1yr medium-term lending facility rate at 2.75%. Elsewhere in Asia, the Nikkei (-0.03%) and the KOSPI (-0.12%) are trading slightly lower. And looking forward, futures for the S&P 500 (+0.14%) are pointing to mild gains.
Turning to the week ahead now, today will likely see the US debt ceiling rise up the agenda again, since House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is giving a speech at the New York Stock Exchange that’s expected to cover the Republicans’ position on the issue. As a reminder, the US is expected to come up against the debt ceiling again this summer, and the Republicans have said they want concessions like spending cuts in return for passing an increase. Since the Republicans now have a majority in the House of Representatives, at least some of them will need to be on board to pass an increase. The situation has several echoes to the last major fight over the debt ceiling in 2011, when there was also a Democratic president negotiating with a Republican majority in the House. Although an agreement was eventually reached, that episode coincided with a noticeable slump in the S&P 500 alongside a sharp decline in consumer confidence.
In the meantime, there are a few highlights ahead on the data side. Tomorrow sees the release of China’s Q1 GDP growth, where our economists are expecting an above-consensus print of +4.5% year-on-year. Then on Friday we’ll get the April flash PMIs from around the world, which will offer an initial indication of how the global economy has been performing into Q2. Otherwise, inflation will remain in the spotlight, with this week seeing the March CPI releases from Japan and the UK. In Japan, our economist expects core-core inflation excluding fresh food and energy to tick up slightly to 3.6%, up from 3.5% the previous month. And in the UK, we’re anticipating a decline to 9.7%, down from 10.4% in February.
The final big highlight this week will be earnings season, which is increasingly ramping up now as 59 companies in the S&P 500 will be reporting. Some of the financials will be of particular interest given the market turmoil last month, and we’ll get results from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Charles Schwab this week. Elsewhere, some of the highlights will include Tesla, Netflix, IBM and Johnson & Johnson.
Recapping last week now, those US data releases mentioned above led to a cross-asset selloff on Friday. In fixed income, the more policy-sensitive 2yr Treasury yield climbed +13.1bps on Friday, and +11.8bps on the week, reaching its highest level since the mid-March banking strains. 10yr Treasury yields similarly advanced, climbing +12.2bps last week (+6.8bps on Friday), whilst 10yr bund yields were up +25.5bps (+6.7bps on Friday) in their largest weekly rise since September. With a May rate hike now firmly on the table, as well as the upside surprise to core measures of US retail sales, the US dollar index jumped +0.54% on Friday, although it was still down -0.53% in weekly terms. That also followed on from strong earnings posted by US banks Friday morning, with first quarter revenue results from the likes of Wells Fargo and JPMorgan beating expectations despite the banking turmoil.
The selloff in fixed income was echoed in US equity markets, as the S&P 500 modestly retreated -0.21% on Friday. But in weekly terms, the index was up +0.79%, aided by the soft inflation prints earlier in the week. Back in Europe, we saw the STOXX 600 outperform on a relative basis, advancing +1.74% week-on-week (and +0.58% on Friday).
In commodity markets, oil secured its fourth consecutive week of gains as Brent crude advanced +1.40% last week (and +0.26% on Friday) to $86.31/bbl. WTI crude was likewise up +2.26% in weekly terms (+0.44% on Friday). And that’s increasingly being felt in the real economy too, with average US gasoline prices hitting a post-November high of $3.669/gallon on Saturday. In the meantime, gold ended the week at $2004/oz after retreating -1.77% on Friday, and -0.19% on the week.
Finally, it was a big week for cryptocurrencies, as Bitcoin broke through the $30,000 mark to reach its highest level since June 2022, up +8.21% on the week (+0.61% on Friday). The second largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalisation, Ethereum, outpaced Bitcoin however, advancing +14.58% (+4.90% on Friday) on the week after a major upgrade on Wednesday.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Contained US trade with catalysts light and attention on upcoming earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 06:26 AM
- European bourses are mixed after initial tentative upside, with newsflow limited and specific catalysts light.
- Stateside, futures have been pivoting the unchanged mark throughout the APAC session and European morning ahead of earnings.
- DXY remains underpinned in fairly narrow parameters with peers generally contained though JPY lags.
- Fixed income remains bearish with yields rebounding but currently off best levels with action more evident at the short-end.
- Crude benchmarks are slightly softer with base metals following suit despite marked upside in tin.
- Looking ahead, highlights include BoE’s Cunliffe, ECB’s Lagarde, Nagel & US House Speaker McCarthy.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are mixed after initial tentative upside, with newsflow limited and specific catalysts light currently.
- Sectors feature Tech names as the laggard, with chip names pressured amid FT reports that Musk intends an AI start-up to rival OpenAI and has purchased Nvidia (NVDA) processers.
- Stateside, futures have been pivoting the unchanged mark throughout the APAC session and European morning ahead of earnings.
- Apple’s (AAPL) sales in India reportedly rose to almost USD 6bln (prev. USD 4.1bln) in the past year, according to Bloomberg sources.
- ChatGPT and other advance AI are reportedly facing a new regulatory push in Europe, according to WSJ.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- DXY underpinned within 101.840-520 range amidst hawkish Fed speak and turnaround in hedge fund positioning from net short to long.
- Yen undermined as BoJ remains ultra-accommodative and export offers in USD/JPY around 134.00 are absorbed.
- Euro and Aussie face psychological resistance and option expiry interest at 1.1000 and 0.6700 respectively.
- Sterling cautious ahead of BoE’s Cunliffe and raft of tier one UK data from Tuesday, Cable sub-1.2400 and EUR/GBP above 0.8850.
- China’s FX trade system says it is to allow more foreign institutional and central bank-type investors to partake in interbank FX markets.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8679 vs exp. 6.8654 (prev. 6.8606)
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME
- Bonds remain bearish and prone to further downside, as Bunds lose 134.00+ status, Gilts probe 102.00 and T-note slips to fresh 114-22+ overnight low.
- 10 year benchmark yields extend rebounds towards 2.5%, 3.7% and 3.55% in Germany, the UK and US respectively ahead of busy PM agenda including House speaker on the US debt ceiling.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent futures have tilted lower after trading horizontally since the reopening of futures amid a lack of pertinent catalysts overnight and with participants awaiting key data releases.
- G7 ministers agreed to speed up the phaseout of fossil fuels and shift towards renewable energy, according to FT.
- Saudi Arabia boosted its sovereign wealth fund with the transfer of an almost USD 80bln stake in Saudi Aramco to the PIF, according to FT.
- QatarEnergy signed an MOU with Namibia to enhance energy cooperation which includes exploring further investment opportunities in Namibia, according to Reuters.
- Norsk Hydro announced employees at Hydro Karmøy and Hydro Ardal will commence strike action this Monday, while corporate employees in the accounting department at Sunndalsøra will also go on strike, according to Reuters.
- EU representatives are poised to discuss grain export issues this week, according to EU officials cited by Reuters.
- Base metals are predominantly lower after mostly firmer APAC trade, overnight focus was on tin trade with marked upside attributed to reports that Wa State intends to suspend operations from August.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE is considering urgent reform of the deposit guarantee scheme in the wake of the SVB collapse, according to FT.
- BoE’s Tenreyro said on Friday that they need to be patient over the impact of past rate rises on inflation and that they are yet to see most of the impact.
- UK PM Sunak is considering reducing the UK’s inheritance tax ahead of the next general election, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg. It was separately reported that UK PM Sunak cancelled the building of new ‘smart motorways’ amid concerns about safety and costs, according to AFP.
- UK Chancellor Hunt is reportedly ‘wary’ of new subsidies as companies look to the US for government support, according to Sky News.
- UK Royal Mail and the Communication Workers Union reached a negotiators’ agreement in principle over pay and employment terms, according to a joint statement.
- Barclays (BARC LN) is to cut more than 100 investment banking jobs, according to Sky News.
- ECB’s Lagarde said during a CBS interview that she can’t imagine the US defaulting on debt and said US-China bipolarisation of the world could crimp growth.
- ECB’s Centeno says for the ECB’s May decision, either zero or 25 “are the numbers that are feasible” when it comes to rates, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Kazaks says they have the option for a 25bp or 50bp move in May, via Leta news.
- European Commission said it is aware of Poland and Hungary’s announcement to ban imports of grain and other agricultural products from Ukraine to protect their local agricultural sectors, while a spokesperson said that trade policy is of EU exclusive competence and unilateral actions are not acceptable, according to Reuters.
- German VDMA: confirms 2023 production forecast of -2% YY, supply chain bottlenecks have notably eased.
DATA RECAP
- Italian CPI (EU Norm) Final YY (Mar) 8.1% vs. Exp. 8.2% (Prev. 8.2%); MM (Mar) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen said banks are likely to become more cautious after recent failures and bank credit tightening could be a substitute for further Fed rate hikes, while she noted deposit outflows from the banking system have stabilised and the situation has been calm but they are still monitoring things carefully, according to CNN.
- US House Speaker McCarthy’s new debt limit negotiating proposal will include broad moves to restrict food assistance for millions of low-income Americans, according to Politico.
- A train containing potentially hazardous materials derailed and caught on fire on Saturday in a central Maine village.
- Merck (MRK) agreed to acquire Prometheus Biosciences (RXDX) for USD 10.8bln, according to FT.
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
GEOPOLITICS
- Russian President Putin held a working meeting with Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu in Moscow on Sunday, according to Tass citing Kremlin spokesman Peskov. It was also reported that Russian President Putin praised ties between the Russian and Chinese militaries, while Chinese Defence Minister Li said China is willing to work with Russia to have close communications between their militaries and China is willing to strengthen multilateral coordination and cooperation with Russia, according to Bloomberg and Reuters.
- Russia said Wagner Group fighters continued to advance in Bakhmut and captured two more areas of the city, according to RIA. It was also reported that Wagner Group chief Prigozhin said the Ukrainian counteroffensive could succeed because of the ‘lazy Kremlin elite’ and wants to negotiate an end to the war, according to The Telegraph.
- Ukrainian Finance Minister Marchenko said the IMF-led USD 115bln support package boosted confidence that Ukraine can prevail in the war against Russia and that G7 finance officials underscored commitment to continue supporting Ukraine as long as needed, while he is confident the US Congress will maintain bipartisan consensus backing support for Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- G7 Sapporo Communique stated that they condemn Russia’s illegal, unjustifiable and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine and they stand ready to support a sustainable, resilient recovery and green reconstruction of Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- EU foreign policy chief Borrell said the only answer for the Ukraine crisis is to do more, faster for Ukraine and that they need to continue support for Ukraine and defend its territory against Russian invasion. Borrell said that China should talk to Ukraine and refrain from military assistance with Russia, while he noted the EU has an interest in peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and that changing the status quo unilaterally will be unacceptable, according to Reuters.
- Arab Gulf foreign ministers discussed the Syrian crisis and Damascus’s potential return to the Arab League although no decision was made, according to the Saudi Foreign Ministry cited by Reuters.
- Sudan’s army conducted strikes on paramilitary bases amid a deadly power struggle, according to Reuters.
- US Navy said a US warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, while China’s military also stated that it followed and monitored a US destroyer which sailed through the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters.
- South Korea, US and Japan are to hold missile defence drills to counter North Korea, according to Reuters. It was also reported that a South Korean navy vessel fired warning shots after a North Korean patrol boat crossed the maritime border, according to Yonhap.
- Russian President Putin met with Defence Minister Shoigu; Shoigu reported on the drills of the Russian Pacific fleet.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is softer in otherwise limited trade, back below the USD 29k mark and as such shy of the recent USD 31k peak; though, the current pullback keeps BTC well above last weeks USD 28k trough.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mostly higher albeit with gains capped in the absence of any major macro catalysts from over the weekend and as participants brace for upcoming economic releases from China including GDP data.
- ASX 200 was positive as gains in tech and financials atoned for the losses in the commodity-related sectors.
- Nikkei 225 was indecisive around the 28,500 level with some of the biggest movers driven by their outlooks.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned after the PBoC vowed to make prudent monetary policy precise and forceful, as well as increase support to expand domestic demand and keep liquidity ample.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC conducted CNY 170bln (vs. CNY 150bln maturing) in 1-year MLF lending with the rate kept at 2.75%, while it injected CNY 20bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00%.
- PBoC Governor Yi suggested that history shows that central bank interventions in the FX market will sooner or later be defeated by markets and said that during times of market stability, they can phase out currency intervention by gradually reducing the amount and frequency of intervention. Yi also said in guiding monetary policy, they try to make the real interest rate slightly below the potential growth rate, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Yi called for collective action and “fair burden sharing” to address debt issues of developing countries, according to Caixin Global.
- China’s Mofcom said China resolutely opposes US sanctions on some Chinese firms and that the move affects the security and stability of global supply chains, while it called for the US to immediately correct its wrongdoing and stop unreasonable suppression of Chinese companies. Furthermore, it said that China will firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies, according to Reuters.
- China is beginning a surgical retaliation against foreign companies after the US-led tech blockade, according to FT.
- China has refused to permit US Secretary of State Blinken to travel to China due to concerns about a pending FBI report on the investigation of the downed Chinese spy balloon, according to FT.
- Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi said during a meeting with German Foreign Minister Baerbock that Taiwan’s return to China was an important component of the post-World War II international order and hopes that Germany will support China’s peaceful reunification cause, while Wang added that China is willing to strengthen exchanges and communication with Germany, enhance mutual understanding and prepare for a new round of Sino-German consultations.
- China successfully launched a rocket carrying a weather satellite on Sunday, while Taiwan’s defence ministry said some rocket debris from China’s satellite launch fell into the “warning zone” in the sea north of Taiwan but did not affect the safety of Taiwan’s territory, according to Reuters.
- Japanese police arrested one suspect after a smoke bomb incident during an outdoor speech by PM Kishida, according to Kyodo.
- BoJ is reportedly mulling CPI projections for FY25 between 1.6-1.9%, according to reports citing JiJi news.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese House Prices YY (Mar) -0.8% (Prev. -1.2%), prices rose M/M by 0.5% which is the fastest monthly increase since June 2021, according to Reuters.
- Singapore Non-Oil Exports MM (Mar) 18.4% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. -8.0%); YY (Mar) -8.3% vs. Exp. -20.8% (Prev. -15.6%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 47.46 PTS OR 1.42% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 343.64 POINTS OR 1.65% /The Nikkei closed UP 21.31 PTS OR 0.07% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.23 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8703/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8720 /Oil DOWN TO 82.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 85.37 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
China floods market with huge amount of cash.
(zerohedge)
China Floods Market With Cash As Mixed Data Leaves ‘COVID Rebound’ In Doubt
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 01:40 PM
March data painted a mixed picture of China’s recovery raising doubts about just how much China coming out of its COVID lock-down will spur global growth.
The good – most-surprising was that exports recorded year-on-year growth – an outcome that was unexpected as outbound shipments from competitors South Korea and Taiwan plunged. Macquarie economists led by Larry Hu said the expansion was mainly driven by the clearing of the backlog of orders. The large trade surplus bolsters the case for an above-consensus GDP growth.
“China is in the early stage of a recovery. It’s a bit like early spring, when the weather is volatile,” Macquarie economists wrote in a report.
The bad – more worrying sign came from consumer and producer prices, which pointed to subdued domestic demand. The numbers – which were the first of the three data sets to be released – spurred speculation that authorities may deploy more stimulus to support growth.
The potentially ugly – figures on overall credit expansion came in better than expected, with a spike in household mid- and long-term loans pointing to reviving mortgage demand.
Which brings us to the point that Bruce Wilds details below via Advancing Time blog, that China is staying afloat by flooding its market with cash…
While this rebound may drive some commodity prices higher, the potential may be overstated. In short, it could be argued that China has enjoyed a growth bubble similar to what Japan went through during the 1980s and that it is now over.
The idea that Chinese savers are flush with cash and will roll out in mass following the lockdown may be flawed. If they do, most of the spending will be contained within China and still not be enough to offset other factors. Some people seem to be forgetting that much of Chinese household wealth is invested in China’s falling housing market. It is unlikely those losing money on their housing investments will feel like rushing to spend.
The largest financial issue China must face is that its real estate market which made up north of 25% of its economy has imploded. The far-reaching impact of a housing crash in China has just started and may take years to play out. The Chinese people have up until now had three-quarters of their wealth and savings stashed away in housing. With prices falling they are feeling a full-blown reverse wealth effect flow over the economy.
In the middle of January China’s central bank pumped a record amount of short-term cash into the banking system as demand rose ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) added a record-high net 1.97 trillion yuan (S$384 billion) via open market operations according to Bloomberg. To clarify, the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Renminbi (RMB) are interchangeable terms for China’s currency.
The trade in goods between the US and China climbed to a record in 2022. This kept the world’s two biggest economies deeply connected despite their efforts to forge separate paths. It is now projected that imports from China are likely to come under pressure due to consumer spending and business investment growth moderating. American companies are also making efforts to find substitute suppliers or shorten supply chains and bring jobs home.
With China now having put its One Belt One Road initiative into full motion, the world is busy trying to understand whether China deserves to be looked upon as a favorable force. Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports that out of 26 countries surveyed, negative views of China prevailed in 16. The number of countries looking unfavorably at China has increased since the poll started in 2019.
You will find more infographics at Statista
The countries with the most respondents favoring China were Nigeria, Kenya, Thailand, Russia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Still, views of China are broadly negative across most of the advanced economies. Roughly three-quarters of respondents in Japan, Sweden, Australia, Denmark, the United Kingdom, and Germany had a negative view of China.
Returning to the issue of China influencing world markets by flooding the financial system with cash, this signals that China has a problem.
Unlike in America where the US banking turmoil and the economic damage from an inevitable tightening in lending may only be starting, in China, the opposite seems to be happening. In an effort to reboot the economy the Communist Party is currently easing and loan demand is surging.
The Reason For Surging Loan Demand Matter!
A recent PBOC quarterly survey of bankers released Monday showed loan demand surged to its highest level in more than a decade. While there is a deleveraging in the household sector amid housing turmoil, the actual bank lending data indicates long-term corporate loans are shooting through the roof. It could be that this suggests a resurgence of business confidence as entrepreneurs expand factories or invest in new businesses. Still, more likely at least part of the demand for corporate debt may be companies borrowing new money to refinance existing debt.
Michael Every, a Global Strategist at Rabobank, and based out of Singapore appeared on Wealthion the other day. Around 28 minutes into the video, he takes the stand what is now happening in China is not about to pull the global economy forward.
Linked to this topic are matters relating to why someone would rush to dump dollars and view the yaun as a competitor for replacing the dollar. I contend that China has seen its best days, is overrated by many people in the West, and has seen its best days.
CHINA/RUSSIA
Robert H to us:
Putin meets with Chinese defense minister — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
Do not think that Russia is not providing real time information it has in the Pacific or arms that China needs in a confrontation with America.
While a military draft may well occur in America it will not be enough or even timely as too many other factors and motions are in play.
Smart geopolitical thinking will wait and sit it out.
https://www.rt.com/russia/574843-putin-china-defense-minister/
END
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
GERMANY/POLAND/RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Germany approves Poland’s request to send 5 fighter jets to Ukraine
(deCamp/Antiwar.com)
Germany Approves Poland’s Request To Send 5 Fighter Jets To Ukraine
SATURDAY, APR 15, 2023 – 08:10 AM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
The German government has approved Poland’s request to export five Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine that originally came from Berlin’s stockpile.
Poland and Slovakia have already delivered some MiG-29s to Ukraine, making them the first NATO countries to provide Kyiv with fighter jets, an escalation of military support that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz previously warned against.
“There will be no fighter jet deliveries to Ukraine,” Scholz said in January. He also warned against “entering into a constant competition to outbid each other when it comes to weapons systems” that are being sent to Ukraine.
While the MiG-29s are not the Western-made aircraft Kyiv has been demanding, the provision still marks a significant escalation of NATO military support.
Al Jazeera notes that “Germany inherited 24 MiG-29 jets from the German Democratic Republic, or GDR, also widely known as East Germany, during reunification in 1990.” And further, “At the time, the aircraft were seen as among the most advanced fighter jets in the world.”
In March 2022, when Poland first offered its MiG-29s to Ukraine, the Pentagon ruled it out over escalation concerns. NATO diplomats said at the time that Moscow could perceive the move as the alliance directly entering the war.
Polish pressure also led to Scholz approving the export of German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine and Berlin sending its own.
In September 2022, when expressing his opposition to sending tanks and planes to Kyiv, Scholz said he was supporting Ukraine “in a way that is not escalating to where it is becoming a war between Russia and NATO because this would be a catastrophe.”
END
ITALY
Meloni declares a state of emergency as illegal immigration believe it or not quadruples!
(Cody/Remix)
Italy’s Meloni Declares ‘State Of Emergency’ As Illegal Immigration Quadruples
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 02:00 AM
Authored by John Cody via Remix News,
Italy could see up to 50,000 migrants arriving a month if current trends hold…
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has announced emergency measures to combat a surge in illegal immigration. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)
Italy is responding to the number of illegal boat migrants quadrupling by declaring a nationwide state of emergency, with the government of Giorgia Meloni hoping it will help Italy cope with the growing immigration surge. However, experts are warning that if current trends hold, Italy could see up to 50,000 new arrivals a month in the summer months.
The new measures, which are initially limited to six months, are intended to free up additional resources and money to deal with the crisis. Over Easter alone, around 2,000 people landed in several boats on the Mediterranean island of Lampedusa.
In addition to emergency aid totaling €5 million, which will flow into the most affected regions of the country, the state of emergency will also see the construction of additional migrant shelters.
Migrants disembark from a ship in the Sicilian port of Catania, Wednesday, April 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Salvatore Cavalli)
So far this year, the Italian Interior Ministry has registered over 31,000 illegal entries by sea. In the same period last year, their number was 7,900. However, the real fear is that in the coming months with warmer weather, an unprecedented number of migrants could be arriving.
“Italy risks seeing something like 50,000 people arrive on its shores a month, i.e., just under 2,000 migrants a day. In March alone, landings exceeded 13,000 units and you don’t need a calculator to project this figure into the summer when sea conditions will be optimal for a greater number of days. If these figures are projected to the end of the year, Italy runs the risk of having over 250,000 migrants as of December 31,” writes Frances Gallici for Il Giornale newspaper.
Meloni is under pressure over immigration. Despite campaign pledges to reduce migrant flows, Italy has done little to tackle the crisis and has seen illegal immigration numbers rise dramatically. In fact, she has personally greeted migrants rescued from the sea in a photo op, leaving many conservatives questioning whether she has any appetite to tackle the issue. Her coalition partner, Matteo Salvini, is calling for stricter measures, such as the ones he instituted while serving as interior minister in 2019, which saw illegal immigration plummet.
Salvini, who now serves as deputy prime minister, is not keeping quiet about the issue either. From Udine, he underlined that Europe “has been chatting for years, but has never lifted a finger. It’s time to demonstrate that there is a union and solidarity is not only the responsibility of Italy, Spain, Greece or Malta, because we are unable to support a thousand arrivals a day economically, culturally and socially.”
Salvini’s League party has introduced 21 amendments to existing immigration laws that the party says will help speed up repatriations and serve as a deterrent to new arrivals.
A government statement regarding the emergency measures announces “new structures, suitable both for sheltering as well as for the processing and repatriation of migrants who don’t have the requisites to stay” in Italy. However, building new migrant shelters may improve congestion, but it is unlikely to reduce numbers overall.
According to the Italian Interior Ministry, the most common countries of origin for illegal immigrants are Ivory Coast (17 percent), Guinea (13 percent), Pakistan (11 percent), Egypt and Tunisia (8 percent each), Bangladesh (7 percent), Cameroon (5 percent) and Syria (4 percent). Another 22 percent are from other countries or have unclear status.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Wagner Chief Calls On Putin To Declare End Of War, “Gain Firm Foothold” On Held Territories
SATURDAY, APR 15, 2023 – 12:00 PM
Head of Russia’s most prominent mercenary firm Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has issued an unexpected call for the Kremlin to declare an end of the war in order to consolidate territory already gained.
A Friday statement by Prigozhin released by his press service suggested it’s time to declare ‘victory’ and to focus on fully establishing Russian control over the occupied territories of Ukraine.
“For the authorities [of the Russian Federation – ed.] and for society as a whole, it is necessary to put some kind of bold full stop in the ‘special military operation’,” the Wagner chief said [emphasis ours].
The rare statement continued: “The ideal option is to announce the end of the special military operation, to inform everyone that Russia has achieved the results that it planned, and in a sense, we have really achieved them. We have ground a huge number of soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and can report to ourselves that our task has been completed.”
“Theoretically, Russia has already received this full stop by destroying a large part of the active male population of Ukraine, by intimidating another part of it that has fled to Europe.”
Prigozhin went on: “Russia has cut off the Azov Sea and a large chunk of the Black Sea, seized a fat chunk of Ukraine’s territory, and created a land corridor to Crimea,” and stressed that Russia can “gain a firm foothold, cling to the territories that already exist”.
But he noted that “If earlier Ukraine was part of former Russia, now it is an absolutely national-oriented state”.
This comes as Wagner is spearheading the largely successful offensive to capture Bakhmut and surrounding areas of Donetsk region. At least 80% of the largely destroyed city is currently in Russian hands.
A Russian defense ministry briefing on Saturday said “Wagner assault units have successfully advanced, capturing two districts on the northern and southern outskirts of the city.” Western media too has generally acknowledged the Russian forces’ steady advance.
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#Bakhmut Update: #Russian forces continued to advance in Bakhmut on April 14. Geolocated footage showed that #Wagner Group forces made marginal gains in northwestern Bakhmut and advanced in southwestern Bakhmut. https://isw.pub/UkrWar041423
SUDAN
fighting breaks out in the capital amongst the two rival generals, Hamedti of the RSF and Burhan, the general behind the SAF. Hamedti has the backing of the west.
(zerohedge)
Sudan: All-Out War Erupts In Clash Of Rival Military Forces – Casualties Mount
SUNDAY, APR 16, 2023 – 07:35 AM
Smoldering tensions between rival armed forces erupted into all-out warfare in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum on Saturday, leaving at least 50 dead and 600 injured. What began as a peaceful clash over Sudan’s political future is now a war for control of Africa’s third-largest country .
The battles pit the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo — who’s also known as Hemedti and has served as Burhan’s deputy head of state.
The two generals united in a 2021 coup to take shared control of the country. However, recent months have seen mounting tensions between the SAF and RSF, as the generals have clashing positions in negotiations for the establishment of civilian government — something the country’s been trying to achieve since a 2019 revolution overthrew the 30-year reign of President Omar al-Bashir.
To say things have soured among the two former allies would be a major understatement: After fighting erupted, Hemedti has reportedly said that “Burhan will be captured or he will die like a dog.” Meanwhile, in a gesture that seems comically empty given the state of affairs, Burhan issued a decree commanding the RSF to disband.
It’s unclear who fired the first shot, but now the two forces are battling for control of key Khartoum locations, including the presidential palace, army headquarters, state television and the airport.
Battles have also been reported in various other cities. “Large numbers of casualties reported in Nyala, South Darfur,” tweeted BBC freelancer Mohanad Hashim. “We need to build a better picture of what is going on beyond Khartoum.”
While ZeroHedge can’t authenticate them, videos are circulating on social media that purportedly show various scenes of combat. Here, a multiple-rocket launch system is deployed from the bed of a light truck, as other soldiers make a tardy exit from the backblast area:
SAF jets were seen screeching low over the Khartoum skyline as they conducted airstrikes on RSF positions in and around the city.
Some of the earliest fighting took place at Khartoum International Airport. Saudi Arabia’s national airline, Saudia, reported one of its Airbus A330 jets had an “accident.” It was seen engulfed in flame, while other videos showed multiple commercial aircraft ablaze. All flights have been cancelled.
Battles continued to rage overnight, lighting up the sky with tracer rounds…
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he has consulted with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates about the “dangerous fighting…which threatens the security and safety of Sudanese civilians and undermines efforts to restore Sudan’s democratic transition.” The trio called for an immediate end to hostilities “without pre-condition.”
There are also calls for peace from within Sudan. “I demand al-Burhan, the army commanders, and the RSF leaders to stop the bullets immediately and for the voice of reason to rule,” said Abdalla Hamdok, former civilian prime minister in a video statement. “There is no victor over the corpses of its people.”
US embassy staff in Khartoum have been ordered to shelter in place, with similar advice given to Americans citizens in the country. Since its 1956 independence from the UK and Egypt, Sudan leads Africa in the cumulative number of coup attempts, at 15 and counting.
Osama bin Laden operated both legitimate businesses and a terrorist headquarters in Sudan in the early 1990s, before being expelled. In 2020, Sudan was removed from the US list of state sponsors of terror by Donald Trump, as his administration pushed for Sudan to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. To achieve the removal, Sudan agreed to pay $335 million in restitution to terror victims.
While Trump avoided publicly linking the terror-designation removal and the establishment of diplomatic ties with Israel, RSF leader Hemedti was frank: “Whether we like it or not, relations with Israel are tied to removing Sudan from the US list of states sponsoring terrorism.”
As the Trump White House maneuvered, Hemedti spoke warmly of Israel‘s potential to benefit Sudan, a 91% Muslim country: “We need Israel. It is a developed country and Sudan will benefit from its advanced capabilities in the technical and agricultural sector.”
Hemedti, who’s been vilified for a bloody 2019 crackdown on a protester camp that killed more than 100, has the backing of Saudi Arabia and UAE. He gained their favor by deploying RSF soldiers to aid the Saudi war in Yemen.
Sudan’s position on the Red Sea amplifies its strategic significance. While they were sharing power, Burhan and Hemedti used the possible construction of a Russian naval base at Port Sudan as a bargaining chip in their pursuit of US tolerance of their military rule.
In February, Sudan’s military completed its review of an agreement for the Russian base — and approved it. However, it said final adoption would have to wait for the transition to civilian rule, to include the creation of a legislature to ratify it.
To the extent this new war postpones that transition and the establishment of a new Russian naval base astride the Red Sea, it would seem it serves a US government objective. We can’t help wonder, then, about Washington’s sincerity when it comes to stopping it — and about how exactly it started.
end236
END
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
Contentious COVID-19 Drugs Are All Antimalarial: May Not Be a Coincidence
FEATUREDCOVID TREATMENTS & REMEDIES
Apr 14 2023
(Memories Over Mocha/Shutterstock)
0:0010:161
The COVID-19 recommendations hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, and now artemisinin all have one thing in common: They are antimalarial drugs or have such properties.
Yet studies suggest that this may not be a mere coincidence; malaria and COVID-19 may be more similar than people may realize.
Malaria Versus COVID-19
From the outset, malaria and COVID-19 are very distinct diseases.
Malaria is a parasitic disease. An infection starts when an individual is bitten by a mosquito carrying a parasite from the Plasmodium genus. Upon infection, the parasite first goes to the liver and multiplies in liver cells. Then it migrates to the bloodstream, invades and proliferates in red blood cells, and causes these cells to expand and burst.
Common malaria symptoms such as fever, chills, and sweating occur during the blood-stage infection. Complications include anemia, and on rare occasions, cerebral malaria, liver failure, fluid buildup in the lungs, and acute respiratory distress syndrome.
COVID-19, on the other hand, is a viral disease. Infection occurs primarily through the inhalation of contaminated droplets. The virus invades the body through the nasal cavities, entering the upper and then lower respiratory tracts.
Inflammation of the lungs ensues as the body’s immune cells fight off the infection. The person’s oxygen levels start dropping as inflammation worsens in the advent of a cytokine storm, and the lungs become damaged. Some of the virus can also go into the bloodstream and invade other organs, causing systemic inflammation and damage.
Several Commonalities
While one mainly affects blood cells and the other primarily affects the lungs, both diseases are characterized by a strong inflammatory response early in the infection, according to a 2022 paper in Frontiers in Immunology.
Symptoms-wise, both infections from malaria and COVID-19 can lead to fever, fatigue, shortness of breath, diarrhea, and muscle pain.
If inflammation is prolonged, the body will experience a significant increase in cytokines, and individuals can become severely injured or even die.
The two diseases are also similar in that they both sequester iron, use the same receptors in their pathogenesis, and even share similar structures in their proteins.
Iron Storage
Both the Plasmodium parasite and the SARS-CoV-2 virus require iron to proliferate. Therefore, both the parasite and the virus need to store iron inside the ferritin protein within infected cells. High or increased levels of ferritin are therefore an indication of severe disease and inflammation.
Drugs that are capable of targeting iron storage or preventing proliferation may therefore be successful in treating both malaria and COVID-19.
Similar Receptors
The angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2) receptor is involved in both malaria and COVID-19 infections.
In COVID-19, the virus binds to ACE-2 to invade cells. ACE-2 is ubiquitous within the human body, present within at the very least:
- Lungs
- Blood vessels
- Muscles
- The gut
- Nerves
- Stomach
- Heart
- Kidneys
- Pancreas
- Testes
- Uterus
Organs that have a high number of ACE-2 receptors are therefore at a higher risk of COVID-19 infection.
The significance of ACE-2 in malaria is uncertain. However, one study, as well as the one published in Frontiers in Immunology, showed that people who have their ACE-2 receptors reduced due to genetic predispositions are more resistant to malaria.
According to the Frontiers in Immunology study, malaria parasites use the CD147 receptors on red blood cells to gain entry into the cell. The COVID-19 virus also uses CD147 in the absence of ACE-2 receptors. CD147 has also been linked to the formation of blood clots in COVID-19 infections.
Therapeutics that can target CD147 and ACE-2 may be successful in treating both malaria and COVID-19.
Similar Protein Structures
Additionally, both pathogens share a degree of overlap in their protein structures. The COVID-19 surface N protein has at least 40 percent structural similarity with important malarial proteins in charge of transport, attachment, and invasion.
This means that drugs that can target malarial proteins may also be able to target SARS-CoV-2 viral proteins.
Antimalarial Drugs Used in COVID-19
Early in the pandemic, many studies recommended antimalarial and anti-parasitic drugs such as hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, ivermectin, and artemisinin as potential treatment options for COVID-19. These recommendations, however, soon received backlash, with one reason being that malaria and COVID-19 seem to be very different diseases.
But many doctors and studies found these therapeutics helpful in treating acute COVID-19. Professor Jose Luis Abreu, whose specialty is in plant science at The State University of Nuevo León, used the proposition of “parallelism between malaria and COVID-19” as an explanation for why antimalarial drugs such as ivermectin, artemisinin, and hydroxychloroquine may be applied to COVID-19 in his protocol.
Have Potent Anti-Inflammatory Properties
Hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, ivermectin, and artemisinin are all very potent anti-inflammatory drugs.
According to a study published in The Journal of Antibiotics, ivermectin is an immunomodulator in COVID-19, meaning that it does not suppress the immune system, but regulates it so that it does not become hyperinflammatory and damaging.
Hydroxychloroquine and artemisinin have similarly been shown to have immunomodulating effects. Hydroxychloroquine is also approved to treat autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and lupus (pdf).
Studies like the one in The Journal of Antibiotics have shown that ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, and artemisinin may be able to prevent cytokine storms and scarring of the lungs. Abreu has pointed out that artemisinin, due to its reaction with iron molecules, can also produce oxygen as an end product, helping to alleviate hypoxic conditions.
As aforementioned, COVID-19 infections have also been associated with iron sequestration for viral proliferation. Abreu argued that artemisinin, whose primary role in malaria is to target iron storage by releasing free radicals, would also do the same in COVID-19-infected areas and kill infected cells and viruses.
Block COVID-19 Receptors and Proteins
In simulation studies, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, and artemisinin can bind to SARS-CoV-2 N proteins, which have structural similarities with malaria proteins. In treating malaria, hydroxychloroquine and artemisinin have been shown to block malarial proteins from replicating and proliferating.
All three drugs can also bind to CD147 and ACE-2 receptors, as previously reported by The Epoch Times. These drugs can also bind to COVID-19 spike proteins directly to prevent viral attachment to cell receptors and also prevent viral proliferation by blocking proteins that take part in viral replication.
Meplazumab, an antibody that has been approved for use in malarial treatment for its anti-CD147 activity, has also been beneficial in treating COVID-19 pneumonia.
Antimalarial Drugs Are Also Anti-Cancer?
Ivermectin, artemisinin, and hydroxychloroquine have also been found to have anti-cancer properties.
It is interesting to note that some studies have also postulated that cancer acts like a parasite. Like external parasites, cancer depends on its host—the human body—for food, but operates independently and often to the detriment of the host.
Abreu said that a common feature among malaria, cancer, and COVID-19 is that all of them require iron for proliferation, and therefore, artemisinin has been used with success in preventing malaria, cancer, and COVID-19.
Abreu wonders if there is a link between parasites, viruses, and cancer, saying that further studies should be done on these matters.
Ivermectin has been found to prevent cancer cell proliferation and metastasis, and also encourage cancer cell deaths in several types of cancers. It can also prevent the formation of blood vessels, which cancer cells need for deriving oxygen and nutrients.
Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine can also prevent blood vessel formation and autophagy. Autophagy is a process that removes waste from the body, then reuses and recycles cell content. The process is a double-edged sword, and in some cases can improve the survivability of cancer cells, hence why autophagy inhibitors can also prevent further cancer development.
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END
Healthy People are Dying of Myocarditis – What You Can Do to Keep Your Family Safe
BY THE WELLNESS COMPANY
Dr. Peter McCullough was one of the most outspoken and bravest leaders during the pandemic, and today he is continuing his work to keep Americans healthy and safe in this new post-pandemic era.
As America’s leading cardiologist, Dr. McCullough wasn’t afraid to stand up to big pharma, big tech and big government during the pandemic, and he is showing that same courage to sound the alarm today:
“This spike protein is a killer, and it rips through the hearts of men and women,” said Dr. McCullough in a new video where he calls the FDA and the CDC “mild and transient” description of the myocarditis epidemic as “criminal.”
The good news is that no one knows more about keeping his patients’ hearts healthy more than Dr. Peter McCullough. Now Dr. McCullough is sharing the same regimen he treats his own patients with in his premier cardiology practice.
According to Dr. McCullough,
“My Healthy Heart & Muscle Formulais designed to keep your body’s cardiovascular performance and muscle functionality at its optimum condition. You should consider your intake of the critical nutrients in this formula to improve your cardiac function, reduce the risk of disease, and strengthen your body’s muscles. I combined D-Ribose which can improve heart function after damage to cardiac tissue with the power of Coenzyme Q10 and Selenium Citrate which can work together to help reduce the risk of cardiac disease.
“Together with a Vitamin B Complex to fortify muscles and L-Carnitine to provide energy for heart, muscle, and even brain, this signature formula is all about keeping those core systems healthy and strong. As a physician, I recommend these ingredients to all people looking optimize cardiac and muscle recovery after illness, reduce the risk of cardiac disease, and strengthen muscles.
Not only is the Healthy Heart & Muscle Formula optimized to provide the greatest possible protection, it has also been created to help consumers save money – purchasing all the separate ingredients of this revolutionary supplement would be almost $100 – you can save 41% with the unique formulation in The Wellness Company’s Healthy Heart & Muscle Formula.
The pandemic may be behind us, but spike protein is here to stay. Keep you and your family safe and order the Healthy Heart & Muscle Formula today!
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“Dr. McCullough’s Healthy Heart and Muscle along with Dr. Zelenko’s Z-Stack are the two supplements that I use daily to keep my natural immunity humming along. I haven’t been sick for several years, and part of my strategy is to avoid anything coming from Big Pharma and the medical tyranny that has been thrust upon us.”
“Have been taking this product three months, and feel confident that this is a quality product. Now my husband wants to take it!”
Click here to order the Healthy Heart & Muscle Formula today!
GLOBAL ISSUES:
END
END
GLOBAL ISSUES/
/VACCINE IMPACT
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Here Comes XBB.1.16
The WHO called the new COVID variant “one to watch”
| DR PANDAAPR 14 |
While reported cases of COVID-19 are down in much of the world, India is experiencing a fresh surge. India added a single-day rise of 7,830 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, the highest in 223 days. Although cases in India are still low compared to previous surges, deaths and hospitalizations due to the new subvariant continue to climb.
The variant fueling the surge is the omicron subvariant XBB.1.16 — nicknamed Arcturus by variant trackers. XBB.1.16 is not only fueling a surge of cases in India but has been growing in 22 countries including the United States, Canada, Singapore and Australia.
end
India calls for masking again due to XBB.1.16 Arcturus clade: first, who is the moron idiot who comes up with these names for these COVID variants & next, these idiots know the masks DO NOT work, so
why suffer the nation this way? blue surgical masks, the white cloth masks, all of them, never once worked for COVID and will not work here! the body of evidence show all these masks FAIL, don’t work
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 15 |
SOURCE:
end
A 14-year old Japanese girl died unexpectedly 2 days after receiving the third dose of the Pfizer mRNA COVID-19 vaccine; does anyone care? Was this in the media? Autopsy findings showed congestive
edema of the lungs, T-cell lymphocytic and macrophage infiltration in the lungs, pericardium, and myocardium of the left atria and left ventricle, liver, kidneys, stomach, duodenum, bladder, diaphragm
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 17 |
Who cares about this? Do you? Do you understand the danger of these mRNA technology shots to your near zero risk children?
No healthy child is to ever get these shots and those who do this, doctors, governments, even parents, are IMO criminals now. There is no medical or research or scientific basis for this. None.
END
RFK, Jr. (Kennedy) to Buttigieg: Airline Safety Is ‘Not a Partisan Issue,’ FAA Must Investigate Spike in Pilot Health Emergencies; I agree with Robert Kennedy in that there is a serious problem with
pilots & the FAA & airline industry must move to safeguard pilots; do not let them enter the cockpit unless silent myocarditis is excluded via high sensitivity troponin test, EKGs, chest MRIs, D-dimer
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 16 |
END
Dr. Theresa Long spoke with me when we went to the US Senate last (to see Senator Johnson), Dr. Long is a physician within the US military & she told me how concerned she is/was about the COVID mRNA
technology gene injection, she advised that military pilots were struggling post shot & she was predicting devastating consequences to accrue in the short, medium, long-term; she is a patriot!
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 16 |
I had the fortune of meeting Dr. Long in DC for our meeting in the Senate. I so admire Dr. Long and trust what she said and has said! Her service to nation. She is brave and a whistle blower! She is wicked smart! She is trying to save the military and save the lives of US military pilots.
I have stated openly and wrote that we were never to mandate the COVID shots for our police and military! We weakened them with the shot. They were unsafe and would hurt our very best! We have potentially weakened them and their operational capacity! We have weakened nations such as the US and Canada etc. Our soldiers and police are in trouble, our military pilots.
end
STUNNING! Remember Germany’s Federal Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach told us in his own words (minutes 8 to 15) after this CORRUPTED Health Minister mandated COVID gene injections, that in 2021 he
stated that the vaccines had para ‘no side-effects’, he was not being honest & now states “That was an exaggeration that I once made in an ill-considered Tweet. It did not represent my true position”
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 16 |
“That was an exaggeration that I once made in an ill-considered Tweet. It did not represent my true position”…
Imagine this if you will, that a Federal Minister of Health can lie blatantly and then tell you about it and he is not fired! Whereby many Germans took the mRNA technology shot under his direction, law, mandates etc. and now he is admitting it has side effects he always knew about. So what do Germans do?
Catastrophic cases of thrombosis have occurred due to COVID vaccine in association with thrombocytopenia and antibodies against PF4 (platelet factor 4); catastrophic syndrome has been named vaccine-
induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT); ischemic stroke can be the symptom onset of vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia or can complicate the course of the disease’
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 15 |
‘In this review, we provide an overview of stroke and cerebrovascular disease as a complication of the SARS-CoV-2 infection and outline the main clinical and radiological characteristics of cerebrovascular complications of vaccinations, with a focus on vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia.’
SOURCE:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35420916/
end
He had a stroke!
Jamie Foxx had a medical emergency, some said stroke?? Was it stroke? What happened here? Why the cryptic information? Is this vaccine-induced? Is this a vaccine-induced medical issue? I heard he is
many vaccinated? Is this true? You have to consider this, that Jamie Foxx can be vaccine injured and may have suffered due to the COVID gene injection.
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 15 |
end
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Doctors Bribed to Push Covid Shots onto Patients, Leak ShowsFamily doctors were bribed with financial incentives to push their patients into getting Covid shots, explosive documents leaked to the public by a U.S. congressman have revealed.READ MORE |
| China Releases Documents Showing Millions of Dollars Flowing to Bidens from Chinese FirmsChina has released documents showing that millions of dollars flowing into Hunter Biden’s bank account from Chinese Communist Party-controlled companies.READ MORE |
| Majorie Taylor Greene Shreds Eric Swalwell with Brutal Takedown: ‘Is That Why You Make It So Easy to Dunk on You?’Republican Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has put Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) in his place with a brutal takedown on social media.READ MORE |
| Ex-Obama Staffer Blows Whistle on Former President: ‘He’s Part of the Conspiracy’A former Obama administration has blown the whistle on his old boss to allege that the Democrat ex-president was “part of the conspiracy” to cash in from the White House through a “kickback” scheme.READ MORE |
| Mike Pence Tells Biden to Cut ‘Family Vacation in Ireland’ Short and Do His JobFormer VP Mike Pence has told Democrat President Joe Biden to cut his “family vacation in Ireland” short and get on with his job.READ MORE |
| Lori Lightfoot Blames Media for Her Failure, Al Sharpton Puts It Down to ‘Disrespect That Black Women Face’Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot blamed the media for her failures after recently losing her re-election race.READ MORE |
| ‘No Evidence’ Masks Protect Vulnerable from Covid, New Study FindsResearchers have concluded in a new study that “no evidence could be presented” to prove that masks protect vulnerable people from catching Covid.READ MORE |
| Biden Pumps Millions in Tax Dollars to Radical Groups That Backed His Green AgendaDemocrat President Joe Biden has pumped $177 million in taxpayer money to several radical “environmental justice” groups that backed his green agenda.READ MORE |
| Biden’s ‘Woke’ Ex-DOE Official Sam Brinton Gets Slap on Wrist in Luggage Theft CaseDemocrat President Joe Biden’s disgraced former Department of Energy (DOE) official Sam Brinton has received a slap on the wrist for stealing women’s luggage from airports.READ MORE |
| George Soros-Funded Texas DA Accused of Witness Retaliation, Evidence TamperingA Texas district attorney, who is funded by radical billionaire George Soros, has been accused of tampering with evidence and retaliating against a witness in order to frame a defendant for murder in a self-defense case.READ MORE |
| Florida Professor Caught Faking Data on Racism StudiesA Florida State University (FSU) professor has suddenly quit his $190,000-a-year job after he was caught pushing fake data on racism studies.READ MORE |
| IRS Warns Time Running Out to Claim $1.5 Billion in Unclaimed Refunds for 2019 Tax YearThe Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has warned American taxpayers that time is running out to claim tax refunds for 2019.READ MORE |
| Nashville Flower Shop Turns Down Trump, RNC Event: ‘There’s Blood on That Money’An anti-Trump Nashville-based florist suffered a meltdown and refused a large order for a Republican National Convention (RNC) fundraising event this weekend in Nashville.READ MORE |
| The latest reports from Slay News ‘Long Covid’ Is Caused by Masks, New Study FindsA group of renowned researchers is raising the alarm after a new study determined that so-called “long Covid” is actually caused by prolonged mask-wearing.READ MOREBill Gates, Fauci, Schwab Predict ‘Next Pandemic’ Is LoomingAs the world moves on from Covid, global power elites are already laying out plans for the “next pandemic.”READ MOREKathy Griffin Reveals She’s ‘Been Diagnosed with Complex PTSD’ – ‘They Call It an Extreme Case’Hollywood leftist Kathy Griffin took to social media to tell her fans about a new health issue she is suffering from and seemed to know she would get mocked for it.READ MOREJim Jordan Snubs DeSantis & Pence for 2024: ‘I am 100% for President Trump’Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) has snubbed Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis to officially throw his support for the Republican 2024 presidential nomination to President Donald Trump.READ MOREMike Pompeo Stuns Supporters, Says He Will Not Run Against Trump in 2024In a surprising announcement, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has announced that he will not run against President Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination.READ MOREProtesters Charge DeSantis during Speech in New Hampshire, Get Dragged Off StageTwo protestors rushed a stage in Manchester, New Hampshire while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was giving a speech before security dragged them away.READ MOREProtest Against Riley Gaines Turns Violent, Mob Chants ‘Silence Equals Death’ & ‘Jesus Was Trans’Protests against female swimming champion Riley Gaines turned violent with at least one protester arrested by police, according to reports.READ MORERepublicans Move to Defund Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s OfficeRepublicans have fired back at Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg by moving to defund the George Soros-installed prosecutor’s office following the politically motivated indictment of President Donald TrumpREAD MORESupreme Court Hands Victory to Biden, Backs Student Debt PlanThe United States Supreme Court has handed Democrat President Joe Biden has massive victory by backing his radical student debt relief plan.READ MOREWarren Buffett Dumps Billions in Taiwanese Stock as Fears of Chinese Invasion MountRenowned American investor Warren Buffett has just dumped billions of dollars worth of stock for a Taiwanese chipmaker as fears mount that China is preparing to invade the island nation.READ MOREGeorgia Inmate ‘Eaten Alive by Insects’ in Fulton County Jail, Conditions ‘Not Fit for Diseased Animal,’ Lawyer SaysA man died at an Atlanta jail after being eaten alive by insects and bed bugs, his family’s attorney has alleged.READ MOREAnheuser-Busch CEO Breaks Silence, Says He Is ‘Listening and Learning from Our Customers’Anheuser-Busch CEO Brendan Whitworth has broken his silence on the backlash against a Bud Light marketing campaign featuring transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney that threatens to tank the brand.READ MOREWATCH: Mike Pence Gets Booed in Home State at NRA ConventionFormer Vice President Mike Pence got a rude welcome in his home state of Indiana today when he spoke at the NRA convention.READ MOREREAD MORERobert F. Kennedy Jr. Warns ‘Digital Cash’ Is ‘Ultimate Mechanism’ for ‘Control’Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has issued a warning to the public that the global push for “digital cash” is being driven by an agenda to usher in an “ultimate mechanism” for “social surveillance and control.”READ MOREBiden to Spend $5 Billion on New Covid Vaccine Program Backed by Bill Gates & FauciDemocrat President Joe Biden is spending $5 billion in taxpayer money on a new initiative to develop vaccines for COVID-19.READ MORENight of Mayhem in Chicago Leaves 2 Shot, Multiple Victims Robbed and AssaultedHundreds of teenagers swarmed downtown Chicago Saturday night overwhelming police and causing chaos and mayhem in their wake.READ MORETrain Carrying Toxic Chemical Derails in Maine, Locals Warned to ‘Stay Clear’A train carrying toxic chemicals has derailed in rural Maine, according to reports.READ MOREChemical Plant Explodes in Georgia, Evacuation Order IssuedAn evacuation order has been issued to local residents after a chemical plant in Brunswick, Georgia exploded in a huge fireball.READ MOREDylan Mulvaney Runs Away after Getting Confronted by James O’KeefeInvestigative reporter James O’Keefe confronted transgender Dylan Mulvaney in LA about the issue of male inmates being housed in women’s prisons.READ MORE |
| VACCINE IMPACT |
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//
Ooh Lula La! Brazil Wants To Dedollarize Too
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 10:20 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Friday saw US Treasury yields 10-12bps higher and the curve flatter after headline retail sales were lower but strong core, Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations leaped from 3.6% to 4.6%, the Atlanta Fed wage tracker showed steady *positive* real wage growth for job switchers and stayers, and the heads of JP Morgan and Blackrock both said they don’t see inflation falling back rapidly, and that US rates will stay higher for longer. The Financial Times (‘Why economists are learning to speak human’) also mentioned Polanyi’s view that markets sit on politics and society –e.g., 2016’s ‘Thin Ice’ said the global neoliberal architecture would crack once the US saw China as a hegemonic rival; or the surge in US investment being seen under the IRA, as noted in the press today– stressing this will continue; as will related arguments over redistribution; as will financial repression that keeps inflation higher than bond yields to reduce debts.
On Sunday, Yellen said credit tightening is de facto Fed rate hikes –not her job– and that “There is a risk when we use financial sanctions that are linked to the role of the dollar that over time it could undermine the hegemony of the dollar,” even if this is not “easy” to do. That kind of talk raises structural inflation risks, as do a flurry of related geopolitical developments:
- US regulators are focusing on hedge funds and shadow banking, following on from crypto.
- Germany shut its final three nuclear power plants despite energy tail risks ahead.
- A US intelligence leak says China secretly agreed to send Russia lethal aid, as a defence minister visit looms, and the Kyiv Independent says Chinese components are in Russian supplies. China would gain swift air superiority over Taiwan, according to the same source.
- China “advised” the Philippines to oppose Taiwan independence instead of offering the US access to its military facilities, if it wants to protect the 150,000 Filipinos working in Taiwan.
- Warren Buffet said he sold his shares in TSMC partly due to perceived risks of war, as BT, and other firms, are revealed to have “war gamed” China-Taiwan supply-chain disruptions.
- China refused to reschedule a visit from US Secretary of State Blinken, as a national security expert writes that Beijing does not want US ‘guard rails’, but a new staircase.
- Brazil’s President Lula, greeted in China with a local resistance song against the 1980s US-backed military dictatorship, called for a Sino-Brazilian partnership to “balance world politics,” asking: “Who was it that decided that the dollar was the currency after the disappearance of the gold standard? Why can’t we do trade based on our own currencies? Every night I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on the dollar.” Even after President Macron’s recent comments, there is still political shock value (for the White House) in hearing Lula (whom the White House likes) being so anti-White House: not for many others.
- Stephen Roach says ‘the London crowd’ talked Cold War triangulation, China+Russia vs. the US, and: “the interest rate debate between Summers and Goodhart seemed mundane by comparison.”
- Israeli intelligence services fear a war with Iran within a year after recent probing attacks, as the Saudis host talks with Hamas, and Tehran works with China and Russia on arms supply.
- Sudan is seeing its army and a paramilitary force clash in the capital.
Summing it up, Larry Summers noted:
“There’s a growing acceptance of fragmentation, and –maybe even more troubling– I think there’s a growing sense that ours may not be the best fragment to be associated with…. Somebody from a developing country said to me, ‘what we get from China is an airport. What we get from the US is a lecture,’” and added that Middle East-Russia-China links are “a symbol of something that I think is a huge challenge for the US,” which is “looking a bit lonely on the right side of history, as those who seem much less on the right side of history are increasingly banding together in a whole range of structures…. If the Bretton Woods system is not delivering strongly around the world, there are going to be serious challenges and proposed alternatives.”
The BRICS are of course already free to dedollarise by reforming their economies and removing capital controls, and to denominate intra-BRICS trade in any FX: even CNY, as the PBOC tries to claim it’s now trading purely on market fundamentals – just open the capital account and see how much that’s true at present levels. Obviously the BRICS don’t or won’t for various reasons, which is why the dollar is still what it is globally. Former President Trump has recently stated the dollar losing global reserve status would be like the US losing a world war: but that’s only true if something else replaces it, and nothing can in the same way. (As Russia’s central bank is reportedly warning of CNH liquidity and hedging issues.)
Yet the BRICS –and Argentina, Indonesia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia– could try to net out their bilateral trade (e.g., X exports $50bn of goods to Y, Y exports $40bn to X, but they don’t use $90bn to settle, instead de facto bartering $40bn, so US dollar usage is just $10bn). For that group, this could mean a potential reduction of up to 650bn in USD usage vs. the almost $1 trillion total if all bilateral trade uses dollars. Throw in more EM, and you get an even larger drop.
And a larger mess. While BRICS could stop holding as many dollars, helping those looking at 5% or 5.25% rates to borrow them, it also means fewer recycled dollars to service US dollar debts. That smells like trouble in the Eurodollar system – and don’t expect US help if so.
Worse, within the global dollar system, the Anglosphere economies run a cumulative current account deficit of $1.2 trillion. That’s a physical trade imbalance paid for in USD or ‘team US’ FX. Whether you believe it’s driven by lazy Westerners or mercantilist EM, the capital account surplus still equals the current account deficit. To truly ‘dedollarise’ means to break those capital and goods flows together.
That is what will happen if more EM defensively barter/trade more with each other, and less with the West, which would get more supply-chain disruption and/or inflation until it builds new supply chains of its own – as with the US IRA, for example. At the very worst, this could even risk a retaliatory slide into a 1930’s-style global FX/clearing/trade bifurcation. Ooh Lula la, be careful what you wish for!
On which note, a Financial Times op-ed stresses that friendshoring –which the paper elsewhere underlines is inflationary, even if Yellen won’t say so, while urging the US to take a broader view of who its friends are– is a delusion. That’s because while low value-added processes are shifting out of China, the components assembled elsewhere still come from it before finished goods are shipped to the West. Indeed, recent trade data show Chinese imports remain depressed, but its exports are up hugely to non-US locations, who are exporting more to the US in turn. Yet the same voices were saying even this initial friend-shoring wouldn’t happen a few years ago. Indeed, the logic remains for decoupling happen across more components, with higher inflation.
Equally logical, China building trade surpluses with non-Western economies will see broader global trade pushbacks. Moreover, China building those new surpluses –with EM, they are now a third of those with DM, so rising sharply– could mean a runway is being foamed for breaking the global system in a scenario where breaking runways are considered.
Today’s lecture over – but are we looking at global ‘lectures & dollars’ vs. ‘airports & barter’? If so, volatility is likely to go far higher from here.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0982 UP.0005
USA/ YEN 133.99 UP 0.327 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2408 DOWN 0.0009
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3360 UP .0008 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 9 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 47.46 PTS OR 1.42%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 343.64 PTS OR 1.68%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .23% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 343,64 PTS OR 1.68 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 47.46 PTS OR 1.42%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.23%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 21.31 PTS OR 0.07%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2006.05
silver:$25.35
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 101.36 UP 12 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s close.
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.302% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.481 % UP 2 AND 7//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.497 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.311 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.473 UP 3 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0913 DOWN 0.0068 or 68 basis points
USA/Japan: 134,48 UP 0.814 OR YEN DOWN 82 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2358 DOWN .0041 OR 41 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0051 OR 51 BASIS pts to 1.3402
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN.(6.8799)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8822
TURKISH LIRA: 19.39 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.481…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 in basis points from FRIDAY at 3.599% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.811 UP 7 IN BASIS POINTS
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.203% UP 10 in basis points.
USA dollar index, 101.92 UP .67 in basis points ON THE DAY/1.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 7.68 points or .10%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 17.97 PTS OR .11%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 21.43 PTS OR 0.28%
Spain IBEX UP 15.60 PTS OR .17%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 172.03 PTS OR 0.62%
WTI Oil price 81.03 12: EST
Brent Oil: 84.83. 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// REMAINS AT: 81.40/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 00//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4730 UP 7
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.7225 UP 11 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0929 DOWN 0.0052 OR 52 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2375 DOWN 0023 or 23 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.731% UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.42 UP 0.747 //YEN DOWN 75 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3394 UP .0043 CDN dollar, DOWN 43 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 81.00
Brent OIL: 84.92
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS pts to 3.598%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS PTS to 3.810%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 9 PTS AT 4.188%
USA dollar index: 101.78 UP 54 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.37
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.40 UP 0 AND 39/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 100.90 PTS OR 0.30%
NASDAQ 100 UP 8.20 PTS OR 0.53%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.99 DOWN 0.08 PTS (0.47)%
GLD: $185.53 DOWN 0.83 OR 0.45%
SLV/ $23.02 DOWN 0.29 OR 1.24%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Shorts Steamrolled As Late Day Squeeze Sends Stocks To Session High, VIX Plummets
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 04:13 PM
First, some context from Goldman’s Prime Brokerage: “our franchise flows have shifted to local selling of tech this week and Nasdaq is only up in two of the past ten sessions (also note that it stands exactly where it stood in … the spring of 2021).“
In other words, might as well have sold in May of 2021 and gone away for two years, enjoying all the hikes, golfing and trips and you’d still be right where you left off. Instead, you overtraded every market move and lost money.
Today was a micro snapshot of this entire dynamic: after some terrible results from large custody bank State Street, at a time when everyone is on edge about anything negative news out of banks, which sent State Street shares plunging by as much as 18%, the most intraday since March 2020…
… following the sharp early selloff, we say bank stocks gradually recover all losses before eventually trading near session highs by the close, as the massive hedge fund short overhang we discussed last week remains intact.
… and leads to a powerful rally every time a selling thrust is exhausted, and today was no difference. And speaking of massive short overhangs, after we noted last week that the number of non-commercial net specs (i.e. hedge funds) shorting the S&P is at an 11 year high, we have barely budged..
… which is also why stocks took the escalator down, and the short squeeze elevator up closing at session highs and squeezing another round of shorts in the process…
… which also is why the VIX was crushed today, as puts were unwound in a frenzy, and tumbled below 17 to the level where it was back in Jan 2022 when stocks were at all time highs!
And while banks promptly recovered and joined most other sectors in the green, the only sector that was lower was energy…
… tracking the renewed weakness in oil…
… where unlike stocks, shorts once again have zero fear of a squeeze, at least no a financial one – indeed, while all financial actors in energy are pressing their shorts having picked this asset class as the best expression of rising recession bets – bets which are encouraged by the senile occupant of the White House, because we learned today that another 1.6 million barrels in oil was drained from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, it will be up to OPEC+ again to offset the relentless oily gloom.
Elsewhere, there was a still bitter aftertaste in the market’s mouth from last Friday’s hawkish Fed commentary and today’s blow, near record beat in the NY Empire Fed, which pushed May rate hike odds to new cycle highs just shy of 90%…
… which helped push yields higher again and sending the 10Y back to 3.60% even if today that meant no selling in high duration tech names.
It did, however, mean that the dollar rose sharply after months of seemingly relentless declines which in turn helped smash both gold and cryptos with bitcoin dropping back under $30,000 after it was poised to rise above $31,000 just a few days earlier.
That said, with the next round of dollar-debasement just around the corner, the resumption of the fiat money alternatives rally is just a matter of time.
END
.i b Morning trading:
Early morning trading:
II) USA DATA//
GARBAGE!
11-Sigma: NY Fed Mfg Survey Smashes Expectations With Biggest New Orders Surge In History
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 09:28 AM
While normally the New York Fed manufacturing index does not get much attention (or at least hasn’t in the six months when it was consistently bearish, printing in contractionary, negative territory ever since November) today’s print was nothing short of a blockbuster – and will certainly get lots of airtime – because just as the economy careens into a recession which even the Fed now explicitly wants, the fine economists at the NY Fed reported that their April number for the Empire Fed Mfg index not only soared from March’s -11.5 – a number which consensus estimated would drop to -18.0, to 10.8, some 20 points above the highest forecast, but was at the highest (expansionary) level since July 22!
Remarkably, this was the second biggest beat to expectations in history, blowing away the top end of the range which was nowhere close (forecast range -25.0 to -11.5 from 34 estimates, median est. -18 ) with just the June post-covid era expectation-smashing 29.4 print higher than what was seen in April.
For those wondering, this was a 11 sigma beat to the consensus median.
Here are the components of the Empire Fed, where the Prices Paid index (a proxy for sticky inflation) tumbled from 41.9 to 33.
- General business conditions were -24.6 in the last month
- Prices paid fell to 33 vs 41.9
- Prices received rose to 23.7 vs 22.9
- Number of employees rose to -8 vs -10.1
- Work hours rose to -6.4 vs -18.5
- Inventory rose to 8.2 vs -1.9
- Six-month general business conditions rose to 6.6 vs 2.9
- Report released by the New York Federal Reserve
The most remarkable change, however, was in the New Orders number which exploded from a negative 21.7 to a positive 25.1, the single biggest monthly increase in history!
Commenting on today’s data, the NY Fed said that “business activity increased in New York State for the first time in five months: the headline general business conditions index shot up thirty-five points to 10.8. New orders and shipments surged. Delivery times held steady, and inventories moved higher. Despite the increase in activity, both employment and hours worked declined for a third consecutive month. Input price increases moderated, while selling prices increased at the same pace as last month.
However, not all is well just yet: looking ahead, businesses continued to expect little improvement in conditions over the next six months, suggesting that this may be just one more in an ever growing list of economic releases that has been scrubbed for political reasons.
Turning back to the survey, 35% of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, and twenty-four percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index rose a whopping forty-seven points to 25.1, and the shipments index climbed thirty- seven points to 23.9, indicating that both orders and shipments increased substantially after declining in recent months. The unfilled orders index rose to 0, a sign that unfilled orders were unchanged. The delivery times index also came in at 0, indicating that delivery times held steady. The inventories index moved up ten points to 8.2, suggesting that inventories grew modestly.
There was some additional if modest, weakness:
The index for number of employees remained negative for a third consecutive month at -8.0, and the average workweek index held below zero at -6.4, indicating that employment and hours worked shrank. The prices paid index fell nine points to 33.0, indicating that input price increases moderated. The prices received index held steady at 23.7, suggesting the pace of selling price increases was little changed
Firms Not Very Optimistic
The index for future business conditions edged up to 6.6, suggesting that firms do not expect activity to improve much ver the next six months. New orders and shipments are expected to ncrease modestly, and employment is expected to grow. The capital spending index rose three points to 16.5, and the technology spending index came in at 10.3.
Overall, this was a shockingly strong report; however, the Empire Fed survey is well known for being completely unrelated to core data, and has traditionally been associated with headfakes and false starts. Stocks, however, aren’t taking any chances and risk dipped while odds of a May 25bps rate hikes rose that much more and were last seen at 86%.
end
And the USA dollar rises on this?
“Does Not Appear Sustainable”: The US Budget Deficit Is Unexpectedly Soaring Again And It’s About To Get Much Worse
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 03:00 PM
It was supposed to be a year when the normalization of the record US budget deficit blowout from the covid collapse continued; it has ended up being anything but.
As the US Treasury revealed in its latest Monthly Treasury Statement, in the first six months of the fiscal year ended March 31, the US fiscal picture is once again deteriorating rapidly, on both revenue and spending. As shown in the chart below, gross revenues declined by 4% to $2.048 trillion from $2.121 trillion in the same period a year earlier, while spending over the same period soared by $358 billion to $3.149 trillion from $2.790 trillion.
Added across, in March the US deficit soared by $378 billion – the biggest monthly deficit since September 22, the last month of the previous fiscal year, and for the first six months of 2023 the total US deficit jumped to $1.10 trillion, up a massive 65% compared to the year prior. More shocking is that this year’s deficit is not that much lower compared to the record trailing 6 month total hit in fiscal 2021 when the deficit was $1.7 trillion for the first six months of fiscal 2021, a time when helicopter money was flowing into the economy at a record pace and setting the stage for the explosive surge in inflation that lingers to this day.
This unexpected surge in the deficit is creating everything from ripple effects in the political arena where the issue of raising the debt ceiling is about to become quite jarring especially now that the US has resumed its “drunken sailor” spending ways; to shockwaves when it comes to calculations for when the Treasury default X-date will hate, as we explained earlier.
So what’s behind this sudden deficit explosion, and why is it on such a higher path halfway through FY 2023? Here are the 4 main factors as explained by BofA’s Mark Cabana:
- First, the omnibus budget bill passed last December increased discretionary spending by roughly 9% compared to FY2022. There were increases for both defense and nondefense spending of roughly 10% and 8% respectively.
- Second, cost of living adjustment increases to social security (8.7% specifically) has contributed to the 5% y/y increase in social welfare payments this year compared to last.
- Third, interest costs have ballooned owing to the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle and the massive amount of debt accumulated from pandemic related fiscal stimulus.
- Fourth and final, since tax brackets are indexed to inflation, higher inflation last year led to a roughly 7% increase in tax brackets, which has led to less income tax revenue.
These factors explain why the budget deficit is 65% higher than it was a year ago at the halfway mark; it also explains why the deficit will increase substantially this year compared to last. Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a deficit of $1.410tn for FY 2023 compared to $1.375tn in FY 2022. This may look like a rather small increase based on where the deficit is tracking but recall that last year’s deficit was boosted roughly $400bn because of the way government accounting treated the student loan forgiveness program.
The bottom line is that the risks around the deficit are skewed to the upside, especially given growing sentiment that the US will not avoid a recession in 3Q (certainly not if the Fed keeps rate high enough, in which case it will be the first voluntarily Fed-induced recession which will spark a gusher of liquidity when the Fed breaks so many more things than just a few regional banks).
But wait, there’s much more (or rather, less) because while spending is tracking substantially higher, tax returns are now below last year’s levels.
Cumulative refunds are down 9.5% y/y through April 11, 2023 largely due to a 9.8% decline in average returns, even as the number of returns processed is up 0.4% compared to a year ago. One of the key reasons for the smaller average tax return this year is due to the expiration of the expanded tax credit. Lower average tax returns should translate into higher aggregate personal income tax receipts in April, all else equal.
That said, the full effect of income tax season will not be known until after the date passes when payments start to roll in. Indeed, income tax payments more than offset refunds. This is why income tax receipts spike in April and more specifically after the filing data as payments are made to the Internal Revenue Service.
While so far there are no projections of where total personal income tax revenue will end up this month, we can form expectations based on the data in hand and the changes to the tax system with the help of some observations from BofA’s Cabana: First, individual tax receipts are down 14% through April 11 compared to the same period a year ago. Second, as shown in Exhibit 11, we know that the increase in tax brackets will reduce payments for most households. Moreover, the benefit is greater for higher income households that tend to owe taxes rather than receive refunds. Therefore, it’s highly likely we see personal income tax collections this April down from last year as lower payments should more than offset smaller than refunds.
This means it is very likely that income tax receipts will be down as much as 14% compared to a year ago, which would translate into $83bn less in revenue. BofA sees this as a likely upper bound on the decline in income taxes as wages and employment are up from a year ago (or at least that ‘s what the BLS is reporting). That said, a decline in income taxes from last April is likely and will extend the ongoing decline in income taxes compared to the previous year, which – as we discussed earlier – will also add to the risks of an earlier X (or Treasury default) date.
As for the long-term picture, we give the final word to Goldman’s political economist Alec Phillips: “After ten years, we project federal debt to reach nearly 120% of GDP, topping the peak 106% of GDP debt level immediately following WWII, while interest expense tops 4% of GDP. In the very near term, however, the debt/GDP ratio is likely to rise slowly, as nominal growth runs ahead of nominal interest expense, which will take several years to catch up to market interest rates.”
It gets worse: “There are two additional budget-unfriendly risks to these figures. First, we do not include a recession in our projection, but the cumulative deficit impact of the past 7 recessions averages 13% of GDP. Second, higher debt levels are likely to lift borrowing costs, adding further to the debt. Accounting for these risks suggests that public debt as a share of GDP could double over the next 30 years if policy remains unchanged.“
Goldman’s punchline: “The steady rise in the debt/GDP ratio that we and others project does not appear to fit in the definition of sustainability.” In other words, the US may avoid a default in a few months, but the endgame is clear, as even the CBO revealed.
But fear not: the good news is that the US “democracy” is in perfectly fine working order, and America’s qualified, highly competent and compromising politicians will be sure to find a solution to this “unsustainable” problem long before it’s too late.
Supporting data and much more can be found in the source reports from Bank of America and Goldman available to professional subs in the usual place.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Special thanks to G for sending this important update to us:
Michael Harnett is pretty good at these things!
(Michael Harnett)
BofA Chief Strategist Calls For A 20% US Dollar Selloff, Turns Bullish On Gold And The Euro
Gijsbert Groenewegen
Silverarrowpartners
+1.646.247.1000
Apr. 14, 2023, 12:24 PM
Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, projected the start of a bear market for the U.S. dollar, predicting a 20% loss in the U.S. dollar index (DXY).
According to the most recent “The Flow Show” from Hartnett, markets are entering a new period of conflict, geopolitical isolationism, populism, fiscal excess, state intervention, regulation and redistribution. These factors will result in a world with 3%-4% inflation and 3%-4% interest rates.
Over the longer term, the strategist anticipates a 20% depreciation of the U.S. currency and maximum 3%-4% yearly gains from credit and equities. We remain “patient bears in a world of impatient bears,” the expert stated.
The biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the U.S. dollar index is the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP), which is down by 2% year-to-date. The Invesco DB USD Index Bearish ETF (NYSE:UDN) instead is an inverse or short U.S. Dollar ETF.
Read Also: Benzinga’s Quick Guide to Currency ETFs
Hartnett’s Dollar Bearishness: Six Reasons
- Skyrocketing U.S. budget deficit: U.S. federal deficit was $1.8 trillion past 12 months, 6.5% of GDP
- U.S. debt ceiling deadline approaching with budget deficit of $378 billion in March, shrinking cash balances to just $109 billion. The U.S. government is on track to run out of cash by July 4.
- Rising U.S. debt default probabilities: 5Y CDS at 45 basis points versus 15 basis points a year ago.
- U.S. banking crisis means U.S. dollar less of a “safe haven.”
- The “petroyuan” idea gathers pace as war forces countries to deal in different currencies.
- China and Japan reducing Treasury holdings; foreigners own $7.4 trillion of Treasuries.
Hartnett Turns Bullish on Gold: Hartnett argues the U.S. dollar is presently in its fourth bear market in the last 50 years, which bodes well for gold, oil, the euro and international stocks. However, the analyst noted that because pessimism is so strong right now, with nearly two full percentage points of Fed cuts priced in from June to the election, he expects the dollar to trade in range in the near-term once the Fed stops its hiking cycle on May 3.
Monthly chart of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) (with Hartnett’s notes): The arrows represent the dollar’s bear market – Chart: TradingView
Read Next: ‘Sell The Last Rate Hike’: BofA Sees Stock Market Tumbling On Bearish Sentiment, Regional Bank Run
Photo: Shutterstock
end
A strong indicator that we are heading into a huge recession. Generally when M2 falls, there is a lag of 6 to 18 months and then bang!
(zerohedge)
Recession Risk Grows After Money Supply Shrinks At Fastest Pace Since Great Depression
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,
The U.S. money supply contracted for the third consecutive month, and is declining at the fastest pace since the Great Depression, new Federal Reserve data show.
In February, the M2 money supply – a benchmark for how much cash, bills, bank deposits, coins, and money market funds are circulating throughout the national economy – tumbled 2.24 percent from the same time a year ago, down from negative 1.7 percent in January. This represented the third straight month of a contracting money supply.
Early indicators point to another contraction in March, as the M2 money supply tumbled 3.13 percent year over year for the week ending March 6.
In total, the U.S. money supply stood at $21.099 trillion at the end of February.
Between 1929 and 1933, the money supply plummeted by 28 percent.
Despite the year-over-year percentage decline, the money supply remains nearly 38 percent above the pre-pandemic level.
The downward trend, which started in February 2021, resulted from the central bank reversing its pandemic-era liquidity injections, the Fed reducing the enormous balance sheet, and sliding bank deposits.
Across the globe, many economies are reporting slowing or contracting M1 money supply growth.
In the European Union, the M1 annual growth rate contracted by 2.7 percent in February, down from negative 0.8 percent in January. The United Kingdom’s M1 slowed to 1.55 percent in January. The M1 for Canada fell for three straight months to close out 2022, tumbling 3.57 percent in December.
Recession Confirmed?
So, does this point to a recession? Some economists warn that the collapse in money supply growth in the United States and other countries is a warning of an economic downturn.
“We have not seen money supply declines like this since the Great Depression,” said Mike Shedlock, an economist and registered investment advisor for SitkaPacific Capital Management.
“The contrarian position isn’t that a recession will come later, but rather that it’s already started.”
According to Steve Hanke, the professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and a senior fellow at the Independent Institute, thinks “a U.S. recession is baked in the cake.”
“Due to the Fed’s monetary mismanagement, the M2 money supply is falling at its fastest rate since the 1930s,” he stated.
“The QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY tells us that, w/ a 6-18 month lag after M2 drops, economic activity will slump.”
But others, like Fed Chair Jerome Powell, do not believe the money supply impacts the economy.
“When you and I studied economics a million years ago, M2 and monetary aggregates seemed to have a relationship to economic growth,” Powell told Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) during his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress in 2021. “Right now … M2 … does not really have important implications. It is something we have to unlearn I guess.”
Federal Reserve Board chairman Jerome Powell speaks during an interview at the Renaissance Hotel in Washington, on Feb. 7, 2023. (Julia Nikhinson/Getty Images)
Meanwhile, many leading recession indicators have been flashing red again.
The six-month average of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), which assesses credit, labor, and manufacturing, is negative 3.6 percent.
“While the rate of month-over-month declines in the LEI have moderated in recent months, the leading economic index still points to risk of recession in the U.S. economy,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, the senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, in a statement.
The widely watched spread between the two- and 10-year Treasury yields has been inverted since July 2022, trading at around negative 60 basis points as of April 11. This is considered the chief recession indicator, as it has called nearly all recessions since the Second World War.
The Fed’s preferred recession gauge – the three-month and 10-year yields – has also been inverted since the end of October 2022, trading at negative 167 basis points.
Typically, long-duration bonds yield better than short-term securities. However, the reverse occurs if the financial market maintains a weak outlook for the economy and a credit crunch in the banking system.
In addition, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 46.3 in March. Nearly every time this metric has tumbled this low, the U.S. economy was in or on the cusp of a recession. However, times have changed since the manufacturing sector only represents about 11 percent of the national GDP today.
Eric Lascelles, the chief economist for RBC Global Asset Management, believes a recession risk “has gone up somewhat.”
“Whereas the risk of a U.S. recession over the coming year was at around 70 percent a few months ago, perhaps it is now up to an 80 percent chance,” he wrote in a note.
“A soft landing remains technically possible, but it is harder to achieve than before.”
Despite deteriorating economic metrics, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is confident the U.S. economy will avert a downturn.
“The U.S. economy is obviously performing exceptionally well with continued solid job creation, inflation gradually moving down, robust consumer spending,” she said at a press conference on Tuesday.
“So I’m not anticipating a downturn in the economy, although, of course, that remains a risk.”
end
Commercial Real estate in a mess!
(zerohedge)
“It’s Going To Be Ugly”: Commercial Real Estate Predictions Turn Dire
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM
Over the past several months we’ve seen a series of progressively negative headlines over commercial real estate – predictions becoming more and more dire.
- Hartnett: Commercial Real Estate Is The Next Shoe To Drop (subscribers only, really all you need to know…)
- Echoes Of New Century’s Collapse Amid Sudden Firesale Of Real Estate Loans As Morgan Stanley Sees 40% Downside (subscribers only)
- Commercial Real Estate Faces Perfect Storm: The Demise Of Downtown Office Buildings
- A Record 30% Of San Francisco Office Space Is Vacant
Blackstone, of course, is waiting with dry powder for the “largest ever” real estate drawdown.
Now, according to one CEO of a real estate investment firm, things could get as bad as what was seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
“Unfortunately in the situation we’re in, things need to bottom out, and they haven’t bottomed out yet,” said Patrick Carroll, the CEO of the real estate investing firm Carroll, in a Thursday interview with CNBC, adding that while some areas of CRE could remain intact, such as multifamily housing, areas such as offices and hotels could be “destroyed,” as the sector grapples with tighter credit conditions and a cascade of debt maturities.
“It’s going to be ugly. It’s going to be at least as bad as ’08, ’09,” he warned.
One of the core issues is that commercial mortgage debt held by banks will need to be refinanced in much tougher conditions in the coming years – as around 80% of outstanding commercial property debt is held by small and medium-sized banks.
“Sellers are not realizing how much their properties have lost value, and they’re not willing to dump their properties yet because they haven’t felt enough pain. They’re about to start feeling pain. These lenders are screwed,” said Carroll, who noted that $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt will come due in the next three years – which will either need to be refinanced or renegotiated.
And with the collapse of SVB and other small banks feeling the pressure, many will be less inclined to lend without doing so at much higher interest rates than the commercial real estate market is used to.
There is no question that this would pass the House. The Senate, maybe but will Biden veto this?
(zerohedge)
McCarthy Warns Biden Could ‘Bumble’ Into First Default In US History
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 12:00 PM
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced Monday that House Republicans are on course to pass their own debt ceiling bill which would allow the United States to meet its obligations until 2024.
“Since the president continues to hide, House Republicans will take action. So here’s our plan: In the coming weeks the House will vote on a bill to lift the debt ceiling into the next year, save taxpayers trillions of dollars, make us less dependent upon China, curb our high inflation — all without touching Social Security and Medicare,” said McCarthy during a speech at the New York Stock Exchange.
And while he didn’t offer specifics, McCarthy slammed Democrats over open-checkbook policies, while refusing to negotiate policy conditions for extending the debt limit.
“Let me be clear. A no-strings-attached debt limit increase will not pass,” McCarthy said, adding of the forthcoming GOP plan: “It limits, it saves and it grows,” said McCarthy, who added that “the longer President Biden waits to be sensible to find an agreement, the more likely it becomes that this administration will bumble into the first default in our nation’s history,” said McCarthy.
As we noted earlier Monday (available in full for premium subscribers), thanks to a notable spike in the US deficit (due to less tax revenue combined with far greater governmental outlays), the Treasury General Account, or the cash balance parked by the Treasury at the Fed, has dwindled rapidly and was in the double digits as of Friday – the lowest since the end of 2022 – and an amount which, sans a rapid debt ceiling solution, could lead to market chaos.
So is chaos eminent? Read more here…
“Without exaggeration, American debt is a ticking time bomb that will detonate unless we take serious, responsible action. Yet how has President Biden reacted to this issue? He has done nothing,” said McCarthy, adding “Debt limit negotiations are an opportunity to examine our nation’s finances.“
Any bill passed by the GOP-controlled House would of course need approval from the Democratic-led Senate, before heading to Biden’s desk for his signature.
As far as the Treasury Department is concerned, lawmakers have until June to raise the debt limit, however other experts believe it could be extended until between July and September.
According to White House spokesman Andrew Bates, “There is one responsible solution to the debt limit: addressing it promptly, without brinksmanship or hostage-taking — as Republicans did three times in the last administration and as Presidents Trump and Reagan argued for in office.”
END
What a disaster for Anheuser Busch. It looks like Bud Light is toast.
(zerohedge)
Anheuser-Busch Transitions Into Damage Control Mode – And People Aren’t Buying It
SATURDAY, APR 15, 2023 – 03:00 PM
After rolling out a Bud Light ad campaign featuring flamboyant transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney – whose ditzy caricature of a woman mocks decades of actual progress by feminists (who have apparently been wokeshamed into silence), Anheuser-Busch’s damage control team kicked into action on Friday after the Mulvaney ad sparked a massive backlash.
“We never intended to be part of a discussion that divides people,” said Anheuser-Busch InBev CEO Brendan Whitworth in a carefully crafted, heavily focus-grouped press release which failed to mention Mulvaney, Bud Light, or transgender issues. “We are in the business of bringing people together over a beer.”
“I care deeply about this country, this company, our brands and our partners. I spend much of my time traveling across America, listening to and learning from our customers, distributors and others,” the statement continued. “Moving forward, I will continue to work tirelessly to bring great beers to consumers across our nation.”
Translation: Let’s all forget about this over a beer.
The company then went with a ‘hey fellow beer drinkers’ ad campaign, tweeting “TGIF” along with a picture of a Bud Light can. It was received about as well as one would imagine… with a massive ratio of people commenting vs. ‘liking’ it.
The campaign was mocked mercilessly.
More via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Brand Damage
Some analysts and investors said that the damage likely won’t sink Anheuser-Busch, but the damage has been done to the Bud Light brand.
“I simply don’t understand why they hired the person who was doing the marketing,” Oxygen Financial CEO Ted Jenkin told Fox News Thursday. “I mean, if your target customer is Kid Rock, and then all of a sudden you decide to go to RuPaul, that just doesn’t make any sense at all.”
Because Bud Light generally targets “blue-collar workers and younger adults that are 25 to 29 years old,” the campaign should be problematic for the firm. “So, I don’t think that this one campaign is going to colossally destroy the brand,” it said.
“But certainly short term, it puts doubt into their loyal drinkers of Bud Light to say, ‘Do I want to continue to be drinking Bud Light based upon who they’re showing representing Bud Light?’” he asked. “Anytime a company puts on a national spokesperson that has backlash, it certainly can affect your business.”
A research fellow with the National Center for Public Policy Research wrote this week that Anheuser-Busch is owned by InBev, a multinational conglomerate worth tens of billions of dollars. One product, he wrote, won’t do a huge amount of damage to the brand or value.
“But that seems like a plausible result. The Venn diagram of people interested in drinking Bud Light and those eager to support the issue at the sharp edge of the wokist culture war is pretty much just two circles vaguely near one another,” Shepard wrote. “While InBev investors won’t suffer too much, distributors of AB products and others who do business with the company surely will.”
Shepard further stipulated in the article that the “bottom-line effects of wokeness are clearer at other American companies that have abandoned fiduciary duty for politics,” referring to large corporations’ having adopted left-wing talking points and narratives around race and sex.
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
You have to read this letter to Cathay Bank with respect to Hunter and Joe Biden:
(courtesy Robert H)
The slow creep
So, the reality of a deadbeat who did not pay back borrowings come to light. Nothing stays in shadows amongst disgruntled thieves.
What they are racing to do is create a broad NATO war in Ukraine with Russia thinking that Russia will not go nuclear and beyond, covering up the past financial sins. Ignoring the recent meetings of the last several weeks in Moscow with China. Even a fool with sight could recognize the meaning of certain meetings. However a Neocon has not sight only blindness as they know if they fail now they will be shattered and scattered never to return.
A number of surprises await with great patience. What comes will be spoken of for a long time. So be prepared to see an upcoming Cuban type of crisis where the future hangs in the balance of actions taken.
https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Cathay-Bank-Letter.pdf
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report April 17, 2023 Issue 6990 | Independent View of the News |
| Near 6:02 ET, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, a dove, told Reuters that recent inflation data are consistent with the Fed hiking one more time and then pausing for the evaluation of new data. Fed can ‘hit the mark and hold’ with one more rate hike, Bostic says https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-can-hit-mark-hold-with-one-more-rate-hike-bostic-says-2023-04-14/ Fed’s Waller says inflation ‘still much too high’ (Waller’s hawkish remarks hit the tape near 8:45 ET) Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller said Friday… “Whether you measure inflation using the CPI or the Fed’s preferred measure of personal consumption expenditures, it is still much too high and so my job is not done,” Waller said in a speech at the Graybar National Training Conference in San Antonio, Texas. “Financial conditions have not significantly tightened, the labor market continues to be strong and quite tight, and inflation is far above target, so monetary policy needs to be tightened further,” Waller added… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-waller-says-inflation-still-much-too-high-124553634.html Due to Waller’s hawkish remarks and the awareness that oil and gas have soared since the BLS sampled energy prices in March, the odds of a Fed Rate hike on May 3 jumped to 80.2%. It was 67% on Thursday and 41.2% one month ago. The odds of a 25bp rate hike on June 14 jumped to 21.6% from 4.7% on Thursday and 0% one week ago. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Reap Gains from Rates Roiling Small Banks JPMorgan posted a surprise 2% increase in deposits…Citigroup boasted one of its best fixed-income trading hauls in decades… All three firms said income from lending jumped from a year earlier… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-14/jpmorgan-citi-wells-reap-gains-from-rates-roiling-small-banks#xj4y7vzkg In early trade on Friday JPMorgan stock rose 6% while Citi gained 2.4% and Wells Fargo was little-changed… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-fall-jpmorgan-surges-after-earnings-stock-market-news-today-142344768.html Citigroup beats estimates on higher income from loans; shares rise http://reut.rs/3UAak2K WSJ: The bank (Wells Fargo) added $643 million to its reserves to cover potential loan losses. Wells Fargo said it reflected an increase in reserves for commercial real estate loans, particularly office loans. It also increased reserves for credit card and auto loans… Total deposits at Wells Fargo fell to $1.36 trillion, an 8% decline from a year earlier and a 2% decline from the fourth quarter… https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-04-14-2023-bank-earnings/card/wells-fargo-profit-jumps-32–bW3FVKQDFHvPNY3ymNxd Boeing fell as much as 67% early Friday because the company announced it would halt deliveries for some 737 Max planes. US Economic Data released on Friday Mar Retail Sales -1.0% m/m, -0.5% exp; Ex-Autos -0.8%, -0.4% exp; Ex-Autos & Gas -0.3%, -0.6% exp Mar Industrial Prod 0.4% m/m, 0.2% exp; Mfg Prod -0.5%, -0.1% exp, Cap Util 79.8, 79.1 exp April UM Sentiment 63.5, 62.1 consensus, Current Conditions 68.6, 66 exp, Expectations 60.3, 58.5 exp; 1-year Inflation Expectations jumped to 4.6% from 3.6% on the surge in gasoline prices, 3.7% exp @bespokeinvest: Prices at the pump have risen for 17 straight days and are now up $0.46/gallon since the end of 2022... https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1646918246413611008 Retail sales tumble more than expected in March as consumers pull back on spending Gas sales slid 5.5% in March, the most since April 2020, as the cost of fuel plunged. Spending rose in just five of 13 retail categories last month, including bars and restaurants, online retailers, miscellaneous store retailers, health and personal care stores and specialty hobby stores that sell items like sporting goods, musical instruments and books… The slump in retail sales is mostly attributed to nearly two years of high inflation that has eroded Americans’ savings… https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/retail-sales-tumble-more-expected-march-consumers-pull-back-spending March Industrial Production was 0.2 higher than expected due to an 8.4% surge in utility production. ESMs traded modestly lower during early Friday trading in Asia. They briefly went positive at 20:30 ET. An hour later, ESMs were negative and remained there until the rally for the NYSE open appeared at 8:10 ET. By 8:30 ET, ESMs were negative. When the NYSE opened, conditioned buyers and lemmings poured into ESMs and stocks. But ESMs and equities peaked by 10:00 ET due to the surge in 1-year Inflation Expectations in the UM Sentiment Survey for April. ESMs and stocks then commenced a tumble that took ESMs from a daily high of 4189.00 to a daily low of 4138.00 at 13:31 ET. It was time for pattern traders to get long for the expected Friday afternoon rally, abetted by buying for next week’s expiration and the start of Fang Q1 results. ESMs rallied 22 handles by 14:30 ET. ESMs and stocks then went inert until they broke down at 15:05 ET. After a 14-handle ESM drop, the final-hour manipulation appeared at 15:19 ET. A 21-handle ESM rally ended at 15:44 ET. ESMs retreated 5 handles but ticked up 4 handles from 15:54 ET to the close. USMs hit their daily high of 132 2/32 at 6:15 ET. They sank to 130 22/32 at 8:45 ET. After a 19-tick rally, USMs began another decline at 9:52 ET that produced a new daily low of 130 18/32 by noon ET. Yahoo’s @daniromerotv: NYC office market: “Roughly 27% of office buildings are believed to have values below their last sale price… the team noted that there could be more “zombie” buildings that landlords don’t want to own and lenders don’t want to take back.” Wells Fargo Blaine Heck Summers Warns US Is Getting ‘Lonely’ as Other Powers Band Together (Obama-Bidenism result) Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned of “troubling” signs that the US is losing global influence as other powers align together and win favor among nations not yet aligned. “There’s a growing acceptance of fragmentation, and — maybe even more troubling — I think there’s a growing sense that ours may not be the best fragment to be associated with,” Summers said… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-14/summers-warns-us-getting-lonely-as-other-powers-band-together Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied on strength in land-transportation companies The standard late Friday rally appeared Negative aspects of previous session Inflation expectations are up sharply in April due to surging gasoline prices Stocks and bonds declined sharply on higher inflation and rate hike expectations The odds of rate hikes in May and June has risen sharply Ambiguous aspects of previous session The dollar rallied sharply after hitting a one-year low. First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4138.00 Previous session High/Low: 4163.19; 4113.20 Argentina Inflation Accelerates More Than Expected to 104% Consumer prices in March increased 7.7% m/m vs. est 7% Annual inflation reached 104.3%, highest level since 1991 Inflation jumped in Argentina more than expected as seasonal factors collided with the impact of a historic drought and government overspending to fuel the highest monthly price hikes in two decades… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-14/argentina-inflation-accelerates-more-than-expected-to-hit-104 Seasonal factors include the propensity for gasoline to rally for the US driving season and concerns about US grain plantings/US weather/global surpluses/pestilence etc. We will spare you the chart; but the CRB Index soared from 101.4824 on April 21, 2020, to 329.59 on June 9, 2022. Since that time, the index has retreated to a low of 254.0317 on March 15, 2023. It closed at 276.217 on Friday. The breakout level is around 280. To review, the CRB Index more than tripled in 26 months; pulled back about 18% over nine months; and is poised to breakout to the upside. CRB Index Components & Weightings: Energy 39%; Agriculture 41%; Base/Industrial Metals 13%; and Precious Metals 7% @RobertKennedyJr: Of the $319 million Bill Gates gave to media outlets by November 2021, NPR received $24,663,000 and PBS got at least $4 million. In return those “public interest” broadcasters aired flattering reports on Gates’s corrupt self-dealing and profiteering on his global vaccine projects and his hostile takeover of WHO. Gates’s climate strategy is top-down social control and geo engineering projects for which he owns the IP. While shorting Tesla, he has invested heavily in fossil fuels, rail, private jet companies and chemical pesticides and petroleum-based AG. He accurately characterizes his approach as “philanthro-capitalism”- a strategy of amplifying his billions by appearing to solve social problems with technologies that he controls and profits from. Ex-UK PM Liz Truss at the Heritage Foundation on 4/12: You can’t expect economic growth and prosperity when companies are more focused on meeting meaningless diversity quotas and complying with radical climate change standards, rather than engaging in competition and generating money for their employees and the country… https://twitter.com/Heritage/status/1646181390000480257 Warren Buffet Sells Billions in Taiwanese Chip Maker as Experts Fear China Is Preparing for an Offensive – Berkshire had bought more than $4.1 billion of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s shares between July and September 2022, but in February said it had sold 86% of its stake by year-end. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/04/warren-buffet-sells-billions-in-taiwanese-chip-maker-as-experts-fear-china-is-preparing-for-an-offensive/ California Power Companies Propose Fixed-Rate Bill Based on Income, Not Usage https://t.co/tbs8KbnE63 WSJ’s @NickTimiraos: (As of April 5) Bank deposits rose $60.6 billion from the previous week, mostly offsetting all the previous week’s decline. Deposits rose at the largest banks by $21.1 billion. They rose at small banks by $23.5 billion. https://federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/cu Today –This is expiry week and the start of Fang results. The usual suspects are over-the-top bullish. Unless some profound negative development appears, traders expect stocks to zoom this week. Expected economic data: March Retail Sales -0.4% m/m, Ex-Autos -0.4%, Ex-Autos & Gas -0.5%; March Industrial Production 0.2% m/m, Mfg Production -0.1%, Capacity Utilization 79.1%; March Import Prices -0.1% m/m & -4.1% y/y, ex-Petro 0.0% m/m; Export Prices 0.0% m/m; April UM Sentiment 62, Current Conditions 66, Expectation 58.5, 1-yr Inflation 3.7%; Fed Gov Waller 8:45 ET Expected earnings: PNC 3.66, PGR 1.38, WFC 1.13, JPM 3.38, BLK 7.70, UNH 6.05, C 1.67 ESMs are +10.00 and USMs are -1/32 at 20:35 ET. S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4034; 100-day MA: 3992; 150-day MA: 3925; 200-day MA: 3950 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,103; 100-day MA: 33,379; 150-day MA: 32,636; 200-day MA: 32,523 S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3887.64 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4058.87 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4109.09 triggers a sell signal Gaming Guardsman’s access to top generals’ secrets renews questions about security clearances The revelation that a 21-year-old National Guardsmen was able to access top-secret memos prepared for the Pentagon’s Joint Chiefs of Staff and share them with his gaming friends is renewing hard questions… https://justthenews.com/government/security/friformer-dhs-chief-says-biden-administration-has-lot-answer-leaked-classified BBC: What the leaked Pentagon documents reveal – 8 key takeawaysUN boss ‘too accommodating’ to Russia…Jordan feared Chinese retaliation over Huawei…Russian officials are at loggerheads over the reporting of casualties…Western special forces operating inside Ukraine…US dims hopes for Ukraine offensive…Egypt secretly planned to supply rockets to Russia…South Korea torn on delivering weapons to Ukraine…China conducted experimental weapons tests…https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65238951 WaPo: Leaked secret documents detail up to four additional Chinese spy balloons Flew over the continental United States in January and February… Bulger-21 carried sophisticated surveillance equipment and circumnavigated the globe from December 2021 until May 2022, the NGA document states. Accardo-21 carried similar equipment as well as a “foil-lined gimbaled” sensor, it says. The lack of detailed conclusions about the balloon’s surveillance capabilities raises questions about the decision to let it fly over the United States before shooting it down, an action the Defense Department justified at the time as an opportunity to collect additional intelligence… (Pathetic!) https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/leaked-secret-documents-detail-up-to-four-additional-chinese-spy-balloons/ar-AA19SLwK China stalls Antony Blinken’s Beijing visit over ‘spy balloon’ concerns – FT China has refused to let U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visit Beijing over concerns that the FBI will release the results of an investigation into the downed suspected Chinese spy balloon… https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-stalls-antony-blinkens-beijing-visit-over-spy-balloon-concerns-ft Kash Patel Questions Emerging Narrative on Pentagon Leaks: ‘This Is an Extensive Cover-Up’ Kash Patel, former chief of staff at the Pentagon and former deputy director of National Intelligence… questioned the evolving narrative over the Pentagon leaks — specifically that a 21-year-old Massachusetts Air National Guard reservist acted alone to leak top secret military data… Patel said, first, the suspected leaker, Jack Teixeira, would not have had access to the information without someone within the Department of Defense (DOD) or the intelligence community giving it to him, providing it to him, or telling him it should be put out there. “It’s just not possible,” he said…. Second, Patel said the way the classified information was put out suggests Teixeira did not act alone… “The way it was produced, the way it was put out there — pages, printed photographs taken, published online — that is a methodical way of releasing classified information illegally,” he said… “I think the DOD and the [intelligence community] gave it to [the New York Times and the Washington Post],” he said… “We need to make sure people think Ukraine’s working, we need to make it seem like it’s one rogue 21-year-old actor in some airbase in Cape Cod, Massachusetts.”… “That the New York Times and Washington Post ‘broke’ this story, that also leads me to believe it’s the same tradecraft from Russiagate, that when deep state actors want stuff out there, they put it out to their sources,” he said. “Am I to believe that these two newspapers found this guy out first, before the FBI? That’s absurd. That’s the timeline we’re being told. So now, we have better investigators at the New York Times and the Washington Post than in the FBI?”… “I think the substance of the intel…it says basically, our effort in the Ukraine, our $100 billion effort, is failing,” he said. “And I think that’s why this has ignited such a firestorm in DOD–because they’ve been exposed and no one’s had any answers… it clearly shows the U.S. position in the Ukraine failing,” he said. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/04/15/kash-patel-questions-emerging-narrative-pentagon-leaks-extensive-cover-up/ @ColumbiaBugle: Thread Tucker Carlson’s Monologue on the Leaked U.S. Military Intelligence Exposing The Lies About The War In Ukraine: “The slides show that this is not Ukraine’s war. It’s our war. The United States is a direct combatant in a war against Russia. As we speak, American soldiers are fighting Russian soldiers. So, this is not a regional conflict in Eastern Europe. This is a hot war between the two primary nuclear superpowers on Earth. And yet this war has never been formally declared. It has not been authorized by Congress. And for that reason this war is a violation of American law. It is a crime. The second thing we learned from these slides is that despite direct U.S. involvement, Ukraine is in fact losing the war. Seven Ukrainians are being killed for every Russian. Ukrainian air defenses have been utterly degraded. Ukraine is losing. But Llyod Austin has not been arrested for committing that crime. Instead, the only man who has been taken into custody or likely ever will be, is a 21 year old Massachusetts air national guardsmen who leaked the slides that show Lloyd Austin was lying. He revealed the crimes, therefore he’s the criminal. That’s how Washington works. Telling the truth is the only real sin… Now keep in mind, as of tonight we still don’t know where Jeffrey Epstein got hundreds of millions of dollars, we have no idea. Nor do we know what he did for a living. We don’t know who left pipe bombs on Capitol Hill on January 6th, two of them. We don’t know who leaked the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. We can’t even say for certain who killed the President of the United States because after 60 years the Biden Administration is still hiding thousands of pages of classified documents from the Kennedy Assassination. Just as they are hiding more than a billion other classified documents. But tonight, we can say for dead certain who embarrassed Victoria Nuland and Joe Biden, and that kid is going to jail for a long, long time… So, what’s happening to this leaker now is what happens to anyone who contradicts the National Security State and their obedient servants in the media, you go to prison. So, the media can continue to tell you lies.” https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1646684037023514630 @ggreenwald: I can barely put into words how dangerous and twisted it is that it is now the NYT and WashPost that does the FBI’s job for it by hunting down leakers of classified information — the people on whom real journalism depends — working in tandem with state-funded Bellingcat: “It was the New York Times and The Washington Post that did the FBI’s work and found the leaker and led the FBI to him!” exclaimed @ggreenwald. “They love leaks when the CIA and Homeland Security tell them to leak … but when it comes to transparency, that undermines the agenda of these agencies … it’s amazing that these journalists err on the side of the government and will actually hunt down the leaker and demand that he be punished even more.” https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/1646685240402870273 What’s the only thing more surreal and twisted than watching “journalists” become the leading advocates for more online censorship? Watching them do the FBI’s work to hunt down leakers, then march to the Pentagon to demand it do more to prevent future transparency and leaks: @simonateba: @TuckerCarlson blasts the @JoeBiden govt and the media, including @nytimes and @washingtonpost for going after the young leaker instead of the lies exposed by the leak. Reuters for instance, just reprinted (On April 7) BS by the govt that Russia was behind the leak… https://twitter.com/simonateba/status/1646670317111197701 The NYT’s @David_Philipps (Surprising confession): The NYT worked feverishly to find the identity of the guy leaking TS docs on Discord. Ironically, if the same guy had leaked to the NYT, we’d be working feverishly to conceal it. @TheChiefNerd: Former CIA Officer Larry Johnson Says the Leaked Pentagon Documents are a ‘Controlled Leak’ – “This is a coordinated media strategy, this is a disinformation campaign. The documents are real. I’m not saying the documents are fabrications, they are not. But this cover story that’s been manufactured to explain how these documents came to be produced, it just falls apart… The information was leaked…to prepare the U.S. public for the crash landing that’s going to take place with respect to U.S. foreign policy.” https://twitter.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1646974102618480641 In Ireland on Friday, Biden repeated his big lie that he taught at the University of Pennsylvania. Hunter Biden firm sought Irish government investments while Biden was VP, raising questions about Ireland trip (Getting stories and alibis straight? Fox’s Doocy thinks Hunter is living in the WH.) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-biden-firm-sought-irish-government-investments-biden-vp-questions-ireland-trip Shamelessly parading his disgraced son, taking selfies with accused terrorists and insulting America’s allies… it’s all in a day’s work for our declining president on his corrupt Biden Family European Vacation https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11973741/DAVID-MARCUS-declining-president-Hunter-parade-corrupt-family-vacation.html Sen Johnson sounds alarm on ‘jaw-dropping’ Biden family bank records: ‘Revealing’ Ron Johnson says his report ‘ignored’ by media because they are ‘advocates’ for the left I think what recently reported on Fox is the trying to get into the sovereign wealth funds of like Ireland and some of these other countries… https://www.foxnews.com/media/sen-johnson-sounds-alarm-jaw-dropping-biden-family-bank-records-revealing Redfield warned Fauci not to ‘give terrorists recipe’ to modify bird flu to kill 5%-50% of infected NIH-funded scientists published instructions for making such a pathogen cross the “species barrier” to humans, recounted former CDC Director Robert Redfield… “I think it’s a miracle that no one’s used that yet,” Redfield said. “But I do think we’re at high risk for laboratory-created bird flu that will have high pathogenicity for man,” given the “highly inadequate” biosecurity of dozens of labs handling dangerous pathogens… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/redfield-warned-fauci-not-give-terrorists-recipe-modify-bird-flu-kill-5-50 @townhallcom: TRUMP: “I used to get along great with” Gavin Newsom!” TUCKER: “Wait, you got along with Gavin Newsom?!” TRUMP: “He was always very nice to me. He said the greatest things.” TUCKER: “About you?!” TRUMP: “About me.” (Now you know why DJT is so easy to roll!) https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1645949866630160388 @jeffcampbell64: Trump said, “That’s why I could never hit him because he was so nice to me.” That sums up his whole campaign and presidency. Kiss his ring or bend the knee and he is happy. Pathetic. DeSantis super PAC strafes Trump in first TV ad… debuts its first TV ad, charging straight at former President Trump with the loaded question: “What happened to Donald Trump?”… “Trump cut and run like a coward,” Never Back Down said this weekend in an online-only blast targeted at attendees of this weekend’s National Rifle Association convention in Indianapolis. In the TV ad, the pro-DeSantis group says: “Donald Trump is being attacked by a Democrat prosecutor in New York. So why is he spending millions attacking the Republican governor of Florida? Trump’s stealing pages from the Biden-Pelosi playbook, repeating lies about Social Security.”.. The pro-DeSantis ad shows the governor saying in March: “We’re not going to mess with Social Security as Republicans.” The ad shows CNBC’s Joe Kernen asking Trump at Davos in 2020: “Entitlements ever be on your plate?” Trump replies: “At some point, they will be… we will take a look at that.” “Trump should fight Democrats, not lie about Governor DeSantis,” the ad says. “What happened to Donald Trump?”… https://www.axios.com/2023/04/16/desantis-trump-2024-tv-ads-fox-news DeSantis ad drops RIGHT before Trump’s NRA speech branding him ‘coward’ on guns It opens with an archive clip of Trump speaking at an earlier NRA event with the narrator stating: ‘Trump promised NRA members he’d have their back. But when Second Amendment rights came under attack, Trump abandoned us and stood with liberal Democrats.’… The ad then shows clips of Trump supporting gun control measures such as ‘red flag’ laws and working with Democrats including Senator Dianne Feinstein on gun control. It also likens some of Trump’s past statements on the issue of gun control to what liberals have said, painting him as someone who has abandoned Second Amendment principles. ‘Trump cut and run like a coward,’ the voiceover states, together with an image of a Breitbart headline calling Trump a gun-grabber. ‘Trump the gun-grabber doesn’t deserve a second chance,’ the ad concludes… https://t.co/svmr5LGCrz Nurses Leaving Workforce: Study Suggests ‘National Health Care Crisis’ Looming Without Correction… 100,000 nurses left the workforce due to the pandemic and another almost 700,000 are considering leaving by 2027… https://www.nbcwashington.com/investigations/nurses-leaving-workforce-study-suggests-national-health-care-crisis-looming-without-correction/3329637/ @bennyjohnson: Another massive explosion at cattle farm kills 18,000 cows— Tucker explains what’s REALLY going on... (“No explanation from the government… It looks like terrorism…”) https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1646892358565347330 @nytimes: Nearly a third of all shoplifting arrests in New York City last year involved just 327 people, the police said. Collectively, they were arrested and rearrested more than 6,000 times. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1647339038850859010 ‘Teen Takeover’ terrorizes Chicago as hundreds of children destroy property, attack tourists https://t.co/Ql06kvI7mq @ChicagoContrar1 tweeted at 9:40 PM on Sat, Apr 15, 2023: Complete anarchy downtown Chicago tonight. CPD overwhelmed with teens swarming Millennium Park and Michigan Ave. Bottles thrown at CPD vehicles and CTA buses. In a few weeks, this lawlessness will all be laid at Brandon Johnson and the CTU’s doorstep. https://t.co/PN4INIpIzH @rawsalerts: Chaotic Scene Unfolds in Downtown Chicago as Teenagers Vandalize Cars and Gunfire Erupts – There is currently a significant police response taking place in downtown Chicago due to a large group of teenagers causing chaos. They have been smashing car windows, getting into fights, robbing people, and using mace. There have also been reports of multiple gunshots, and three teens have been shot while attempting to break into the Art Institute of Chicago. https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1647457314494971910?s=46&t=qxXHDyY44n_5IkxYURo8Yg Chicago Police Respond to Large Groups of Violent Teenagers Downtown for 2nd Night in a Row. “What’s it going to take? The community has to step up, parents have to step up, we can’t keep blaming politicians and waiting on them,” the witness said. “It starts with us; it’s going to take us to save us.”… https://t.co/9x8gy9Y6x3 If you allow and excuse criminal behavior, you will get more criminal behavior. It’s that simple! NYPD commish admits ‘people taking advantage’ of bail reform, laments city’s ‘perception of feeling unsafe‘ https://t.co/hV7yzV30hN AP WAS THERE: Uncovering Lyndon B Johnson’s stolen election In 1977, Associated Press reporter James W. Mangan’s exclusive interview with a South Texas election judge who detailed certifying false votes for Lyndon B. Johnson nearly three decades earlier made headlines across the country. With the win by an 87-vote margin in the 1948 Democratic primary runoff, Johnson, then a congressman, easily defeated his Republican opponent to take a seat in the U.S. Senate, and he eventually ascended to the presidency… A former Texas voting official seeking “peace of mind” says he certified enough fictitious ballots to steal an election 29 years ago and launch Lyndon B. Johnson on a path that led to the presidency… https://apnews.com/article/lbj-stolen-election-box-13-mangan-c818e478ec509c65585d3094bda69f96 “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.” – George Orwell in 1984 | |
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING MARTIN ARMSTRONG
Ukraine War Causes Inflation & Higher Rates – Martin Armstrong
By Greg Hunter On April 15, 2023 In Political Analysis132 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong was forecasting “chaos” in 2023. The Ukraine war is ramping up. China looks like it’s getting ready to invade Taiwan. President Trump was indicted by radical Deep State Democrats. The FDIC had to rescue some big banks and stop an economic implosion, and it’s just the first few weeks of spring. Don’t look for things to get better. Armstrong explains, “Bidens approval rating is collapsing. “Socrates” (Armstrong’s predictive computer program) has it now at 9.5%. . . .What they are going to do is try to start war before the election, and that’s what this is all about. Their theory is no president that has ever been engaged in a war has ever lost an election. You don’t change horses in midstream. So, they intend to actually start war.”
What does Armstrong see for interest rates? Armstrong says, “Nobody wants to talk about the elephant in the room, and that is the Ukraine war. . . . You have to understand how central banks really work. Powell (Fed Head) started raising rates as soon as the Ukrainian war started. He knows the number one factor in creating inflation is war. The amount of money that is being completely dumped down the drain with Ukraine is insane. Besides the guns and weapons and everything else, Biden is funding the entire Ukrainian government. He’s funding all their salaries and their pensions. . . . Rates are going higher into 2024. . . . The Fed is not going to tell the truth. It’s just not. . . . They are not talking about the elephant in the room, and that is all the money going to Ukraine, and now you are talking about waging war to defend Taiwan.”
So, more war means more inflation and much higher interest rates.
Armstrong also talks about Trump and his chance of getting back into the White House, the implosion of the legal system, rigged elections coming in 2024 and the real inflation rate that could top 30% soon.
There is much more in the nearly 59-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, cycle expert and author of the upcoming new book “The Plot to Seize Russia, Manufacturing World War III” for 4.15.23.
(https://usawatchdog.com/ukraine-war-causes-inflation-higher-rates-martin-armstrong/)
(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec. This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it. In addition, try different browsers. Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. All the above is a way to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)
There is some free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com.
If you want to read any of Armstrong’s current and past reports, including the “Rise of the Neocons,” click here.
To get a copy of Armstrong’s 5th edition of “Manipulating the World Economy,” click here.
To get a copy of “The Cycle of War and the Coronavirus: The New Threat to World Peace & Battle of the Billionaires,” click here.
There are hard cover and Kindle editions for both books.
Keep checking for Armstrong’s book “The Plot to Seize Russia, Manufacturing World War III.” This book has sold out and more copies are on the way.
If you are looking to buy physical gold and silver coins, check out our sponsor Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188.
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