APRIL 18/GOLD HAS A STELLAR DAY UP $12.15 TO 42007.10//SILVER ALSO REBOUNDS UP 18 CENTS TO $25.17//PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM CONTINUE TO SHINE GREATLY WITH PLATINUM UP $32.00 TP $1984.95 WHILE PALLADIUM RISES $85.30TO $1641.10//IMPORTANT ARTICLE TO READ: NICK GIAMRUNO:END OF THE PETRODOLLAR SCHEME//EU SLAMS POLAND AND HUNGARY AGAIN THIS TIME FOR REFUSING UKRAINIAN GRAINS ETC FROM WHICH THEY WERE UNDER NO OBLIGATION TO BUY//UPDATES ON THE SUDAN WAR//UPDATES ON RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//COVID UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/DR PANDA/VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//BROOKFIELD DEFAULTS ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LOAN AND THAT WILL SET OFF MANY MORE//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 33 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 24 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 37 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2 661 C JP MORGAN 50 14 690 C ABN AMRO 4 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2 737 C ADVANTAGE 4 800 C MAREX SPEC 11 6 905 C ADM 5 3
TOTAL: 98 98 MONTH TO DATE: 23,266
JPMorgan stopped 14/98 contracts
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT: 98 NOTICES FOR 9800 OZ or 03048 TONNES
total notices so far: 23,266 contracts for 2,326,600 oz (72.367 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 313 for 1,565,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $12.15
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://////A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 18 CENTS
AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.//: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.023 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2114 TO 157,861 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.33 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.33). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A MONSTER GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 3700 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 50 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 2.5 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 20.83 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1200CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.055 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE)+ THE 20.83 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 22.485MILLION OZ/ //// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –386 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 16,775 contracts: OR 83,875 MILLION OZ . (1525 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 83.875 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH
APRIL 83.875 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF2114 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR $0.33 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1200 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 1.055 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 2.5 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK STANDING 20.83 MILLION OZ, THUS TOTAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN APRIL TOTALS 22.485 MILLION .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3314 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1869 CONTRACTS TO 481,532 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 821 CONTRACTS
this is the 5th day in a row where contracts on the comex were added!!
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 2600 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $7.15 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APR. AT 66.892 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A 16,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP:(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $7,15 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 186 OI CONTRACTS (0.5785 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2055 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 481,532
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 186 CONTRACTS WITH 1869 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2055 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 186CONTRACTS OR0.5785TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2055 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1869 //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 186 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 66.892 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 16,200 OZ//NEW STANDING 74.3017 TONNES // ///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION//4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 38,725 CONTRACTS OR 3,872,500 OZ OR 120.45 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3520 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 120.45 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 120.45/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 120.45 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2114 CONTRACTS OI TO 157,861 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 1200 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1466 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1200 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2114CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1200OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3314 CONTRACTS.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 16.57 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.33 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.72 PTS OR 0.23% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 131.94 POINTS OR 0.63% /The Nikkei closed UP 144.05 PTS OR 0.51% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.27 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8765/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8783 /Oil DOWN TO 80.67 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.64 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1869 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 481,532 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.15 ON MONDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2055 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 2055 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2055 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 186 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2055LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2600 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.15. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (74.0217) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 74.0217 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $7.15 //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 545 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 1.695 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (66.892 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 16,200 OZ… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $7.15
WE HAD + ADDED 821 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 186 CONTRACTS OR 18600 OZ OR 0.5785TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
23,266 notices 2,326,600 OZ 72.367 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: NIL oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Brinks: 3375.860 oz (105 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 3375.860 oz
Adjustments; 1
I) OUT OF MANFRA: 4822.650 OZ CUSTOMER TO DEALER
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 630 contracts having LOST 514 contracts. We had 676 contracts served ON MONDAY so we GAINED 162 contracts or 16,200 oz were QUEUE JUMPED.
May GAINED 16 contracts up to 1778.
June LOST 1778 contracts DOWN to 402,203 contracts.
We had 98 contracts filed for today representing 9800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 50 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 98 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 14 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,266 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (APRIL. 630 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 98 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,372,800 OZ OR 74.0217 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month: No of notices filed so far (23,266 x 100 oz)+ 630 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (98)x 100 oz} which equals 2,372,800 oz standing OR 74.0217 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 74.0217 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,943,454.003 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,292,837.496 (382.358 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,650,616.007 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,589,542 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 329.379 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 18//2023// THE APRIL 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
674,650.000 oz BRINKS CNT JPMORGAN
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
18 contracts (90,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
313 Contracts (1,565,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 0 deposits into the customer account
Total deposits: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 141.154 million oz/273.179 million =51.64% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) Out of Brinks 1957.600 oz
ii) Out of CNT 89,191.400 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan: 593,501.000 oz
Total withdrawals; 674,650.000 oz
adjustments: 1
Int Delaware, dealer to customer: 4840.440 oz
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.058 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 273.179 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 18 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 6 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 2689 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 71,895
JUNE HAD A 8 CONTRACT GAIN TO 155
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 58,812 FAIR
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 78,636 STRONG
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 313 x 5,000 oz = 1,565,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL(18) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2023 contract month: 313 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (18) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL. contract month equates to 1.655 million oz +/ NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY: 2.5 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MONTH OF APRIL: 20.83 MILLION OZ// THUS TOTAL SILVER OZ STANDING: 22.485 MILLION OZ//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES
APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES
APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES
APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91
APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23
MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES
MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES
MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 925.70 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLIONOZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412
MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ
MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ
MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
I don’t know about you, but that means my bank account balance will be significantly smaller later this evening. I’m going to have to write a big check. But hey, this is the price I pay for a more civilized society.
That’s the mantra, right? Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society. That sounds like some BS a tax collector would come up with.
Of course, tax day normally falls on April 15th, but since the 15th was a Saturday, tax day got pushed to Monday, and as it turns out, Monday the 17th was the Emancipation Day holiday in Washington, DC, commemorating the abolition of slavery in the nation’s capital. So, we got a three-day reprieve from the taxman.
But as they say, nothing is certain but death and taxes. The grim reaper and the taxman always cometh eventually.
And the taxman is here.
Again.
Come to think of it, maybe they are the same person! I mean, have we ever seen them in the same room together?
If you got a refund, you probably went ahead and filed earlier this year so you could get that nice check from Uncle Sam. I did not get a refund. I’m self-employed. That means I write checks. Therefore, I put off filing until the last minute. That means I’ll have to write that big fat check to the IRS this afternoon.
I wish more people actually had to write that check. The fact that so many people just have taxes pulled from their paychecks and get big refunds every year makes tax day feel like a holiday for most Americans. But trust me, you’re getting ripped off too. They just hide it from you.
In fact, they get you with a double whammy. Not only does the IRS suck money out of your paycheck that you never see, but you also pay the inflation tax every time you go to the grocery store or gas station.
But don’t feel bad. You’re contributing to a more civilized society.
Thank you for your service.
Speaking of that, I have questions.
How does taking money from me essentially at gunpoint make society more “civilized?” I wouldn’t categorize stealing as civilized. And that’s exactly what’s happening today. The IRS is stealing a chunk of my productive resources.
Yes – I’m saying taxation is theft. Or maybe extortion is a better word.
But I’m supposed to understand that the government is going to take its ill-gotten gains and make the world a better place. That supposedly justifies the extortion and theft.
OK. Sure. That sounds good in a political speech, or maybe coming from a civics teacher, but it’s propaganda spin.
And by propaganda spin, I mean utter BS.
Here’s the real truth: taxation is the price we pay for an overreaching, unconstitutional government.
And that price tag is going up by the minute.
In fact, taxation doesn’t begin to pay for all of the government we’re getting. Just look at the most recent deficit numbers. That’s why we also get hit with the inflation tax. Despite what they claim, money printing isn’t free.
Given the price tag, we should have a lot of civilizing at this point. I think we’re getting hosed.
Reggae artist Lucky Dube gets it. He performed a song called “Tax Man.” The lyrics are pretty poignant. You can read them at the end of the post.
I pay my gardener to clean up my garden I pay my doctor to check out da other ting I pay my lawyer to fight for my rights And I pay my bodyguard to guard my body There’s only one man I pay But I don’t know what I’m paying for I’m talking about the taxman I’m talking about the taxman I’m talking about the taxman What have you done for me lately Mr Taxman What have you done for me lately Mr Taxman What have you done for me lately Mr Taxman What have you done for me lately Mr Taxman You take from the rich, take from the poor You even take from me, can’t understand it now I pay for the police to, err…I don’t know why ‘Cause if my dollar was good enough There wouldn’t be so much crime in the streets They tell me you’re a fat man And you always take and never give What have you done for me lately Mr Taxman
Basically, he asks the question, “What have you done for me, Mr. Taxman?”
Well, if you ask me – not a whole lot.
OK, so we get roads. But if you’ve driven through Ohio lately, you’ll quickly come to the conclusion that if that’s the best case to be made for taxes, the whole argument falls apart. Seriously, it’s amusing to me that some people think roads are the crowning achievement of government – as if without a bunch of politicians, nobody would be able to figure out how to lay a ribbon of concrete from point A to point B.
Oh. We also sent billions of dollars in military gear to Ukraine to help with the civilizing that’s going on over there.
But as my mother-in-law often says, “It is what it is.” Whether we like it or not, the taxman cometh. The best we can do is try to minimize his take as much as possible.
Unfortunately, the IRS makes that really hard with its tangled web of rules and regulations. This is true when you are investing in precious metals.
The good news is you don’t legally have to report every precious metal transaction. SchiffGold has a report to help you navigate the arcane reporting requirements. You can download it free RIGHT HERE.
Did you know that central banks bought more gold last year than any year in the past 55 years—since 1967?
Though most don’t realize it, 1967 was a significant year in financial history, mainly due to the events at the London Gold Pool.
The London Gold Pool was an agreement among central banks of the United States and Western European countries to stabilize the price of gold. The goal was to maintain the price of gold at $35 per ounce by collectively buying or selling gold as needed.
However, in 1967 the London Gold Pool collapsed due to a shortage of gold and increased demand for the metal. That’s because European central banks bought massive amounts of gold as they began to doubt the US government’s promise to back the dollar to gold at $35/ounce. The buying depleted the London Gold Pool’s reserves and pushed the price of gold higher.
In short, 1967 was the beginning of the end of the Bretton Woods international monetary system that had been in place since the end of World War 2. It ultimately led to severing the US dollar’s last link to gold in 1971. The dollar has been unbacked fiat confetti ever since—though the petrodollar system and coercion have propped it up.
The point is large global gold flows can be a sign that a paradigm shift in the international monetary system is imminent.
Central banks are the biggest players in the gold market. And now that we have just experienced the largest year for central bank gold purchases since 1967, it’s clear to me something big is coming soon.
And those are just the official numbers that governments report. The actual gold purchases could be much higher because governments are often opaque about their gold holdings, which they consider a crucial part of their economic security.
Today, I think we are on the cusp of a radical change in the international monetary system with profound implications. Yet, few are aware of what is happening and its enormous significance.
I suspect most people will be taken by surprise—and it won’t be a pleasant one. They’ll be the ones holding the bag for a failing monetary system.
But it doesn’t have to be a disaster for everyone…
Those who get positioned properly ahead of this paradigm shift could make fortunes.
The Real Reason for China’s Massive Gold Stash
According to the Financial Times, the big buyers of gold in 2022 were China and Middle East oil producers. That’s not a coincidence, as these countries will be at the center of the changes to the international monetary system.
It’s no secret that China has been stashing away as much gold as possible for many years.
China is the world’s largest producer and buyer of gold. Most of that gold finds its way into the Chinese government’s treasury.
Nobody knows the exact amount of gold China has, but most observers believe it is many multiples of what the government declares.
Today it’s clear why China has had an insatiable demand for gold.
Beijing has been waiting for the right moment to pull the rug from beneath the US dollar. And now is that moment…
The key to understanding it all is Chinese President Xi’s recent historic visit to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to launch, in his words, “a new paradigm of all-dimensional energy cooperation.”
The GCC includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. These countries account for more than 25% of the world’s oil exports, with Saudi Arabia alone contributing around 17%. In addition, more than 25% of China’s oil imports come from Saudi Arabia.
China is the GCC’s largest trading partner.
The meetings reflect a natural—and growing—trade relationship between China, the world’s largest oil importer, and the GCC, the world’s largest oil exporters.
During Xi’s visit, he made the following crucial remarks (emphasis mine):
“China will continue to import large quantities of crude oil from GCC countries, expand imports of liquefied natural gas, strengthen cooperation in upstream oil and gas development, engineering services, storage, transportation and refining, and make full use of the Shanghai Petroleum and National Gas Exchange as a platform to carry out yuan settlement of oil and gas trade.”
After years of preparation, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) launched a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan in March 2018. It’s the first oil futures contract to be traded in China. The contract is based on Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for oil prices, and is settled in cash.
Since then, any oil producer can sell its oil for something besides US dollars… in this case, the Chinese yuan.
The INE yuan oil futures contract provides a new pricing benchmark for the global oil market, which the US dollar has traditionally dominated. By trading in yuan, the contract is expected to increase the use of the Chinese currency in global trade and reduce the reliance on the US dollar.
Its significance lies in its potential to shift the balance of power in the oil market away from the US and towards China and to increase the use of the Chinese yuan in global trade.
There’s one big issue, though. Most oil producers don’t want to accumulate a large yuan reserve, and China knows this.
That’s why China has explicitly linked the crude futures contract with the ability to convert yuan into physical gold—without touching China’s official reserves—through gold exchanges in Shanghai (the world’s largest physical gold market) and Hong Kong.
PetroChina and Sinopec, two Chinese oil companies, provide liquidity to the yuan crude futures by being big buyers. So, if any oil producer wants to sell their oil in yuan (and gold indirectly), there will always be a bid.
After years of growth and working out the kinks, the INE yuan oil future contract is now ready for prime time. Xi wouldn’t promise the GCC large and consistent oil purchases if it wasn’t ready.
Why is China purchasing oil and gas from the GCC in yuan important?
Because it undercuts the petrodollar system, which has been the bedrock of the US and international financial system since the Bretton Woods system broke down in 1971.
The Saudis Acquiesce and What Happens Next
For nearly 50 years, the Saudis had always insisted anyone wanting their oil would need to pay with US dollars, upholding their end of the petrodollar system.
But that all changed recently.
After Xi’s historic visit and bombshell announcement, the Saudi government isn’t hiding its intention to sell oil in yuan. According to a recent Bloomberg report:
“Saudi Arabia is open to discussions about trade in currencies other than the US dollar, according to the kingdom’s finance minister.”
In short, the Saudis don’t think the US is holding up its end of the petrodollar deal. So they don’t feel like they should hold up their part.
The Saudis are angry at the US for not supporting it enough in its war against Yemen. They were further dismayed by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the nuclear negotiations with Iran.
In this context, China swooped in and, after many years, finally compelled the Saudis to accept yuan as payment.
It was bound to happen.
China is already the world’s largest oil importer. Moreover, the amount of oil it imports continues to grow as it fuels an economy of over 1.4 billion people (more than 4x larger than the US).
The sheer size of the Chinese market made it impossible for Saudi Arabia—and other oil exporters—to ignore China’s demands to pay in yuan indefinitely. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange further sweetens the deal for oil exporters.
Here’s the bottom line.
Saudi Arabia—the linchpin of the petrodollar system—is openly agreeing not to sell its oil exclusively in US dollars.
It signals an imminent and enormous change for anyone holding US dollars. It would be incredibly foolish to ignore this giant red warning sign.
Even the WSJ admits such a move would be disastrous for the US dollar.
“The Saudi move could chip away at the supremacy of the US dollar in the international financial system, which Washington has relied on for decades to print Treasury bills it uses to finance its budget deficit.”
Ron Paul is an American politician and physician who has been a vocal critic of the current international monetary system for decades. Nixon’s move to end the dollar’s link to gold in 1971 initially motivated him to get into politics. He is known for his views on monetary policy, central banking, and the Federal Reserve. Ron Paul has written several books on these topics and advocated for a return to sound money and a gold-backed monetary system.
In short, Ron Paul knows more about the international monetary system than almost anyone alive.
He once gave a speech called “The End of Dollar Hegemony,” where he pointed out the one thing that would precipitate the US dollar’s collapse.
Here’s the relevant part:
“The economic law that honest exchange demands only things of real value as currency cannot be repealed.
The chaos that one day will ensue from our experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value.
We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros.
The sooner the better.”
Here’s the bottom line.
The end of the petrodollar system is imminent.
For over 50 years, this arrangement has allowed the US government and many Americans to live way beyond their means.
The US takes this unique position for granted. But it will soon disappear.
There will be a lot of extra dollars floating around suddenly looking for a home now that they are not needed to purchase oil.
As a result, a lot of oil money—hundreds of billions of dollars and perhaps trillions—that would typically flow through banks in New York in US dollars into US Treasuries will instead flow through Shanghai into yuan and gold.
The end of the petrodollar system is bad news for Americans. Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the course of these trends in motion.
The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation.
That’s precisely why I just released an urgent report on where this is all headed and what you can do about it… including three strategies everyone needs today.
Now it is firmly ensconced among the climate change cult that eating meat is killing the planet and you must ‘eat ze bugs’, the same people have a new target, rice.
VIDEO: Rice is to blame for around 10 percent of global emissions of methane, a gas that over two decades, traps about 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide. Scientists say that if the world wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, rice cannot be ignored. pic.twitter.com/46GgkaGPgK— AFP News Agency (@AFP) April 16, 2023
“Rice cannot be ignored.”
The Food and Agriculture Organization notes that “Rice is one of the most important staple foods in the world. Over 50 percent of the world population depends on rice for about 80 percent of its food requirements. About 95 percent of the global output of rice is produced and consumed in developing countries.”
What is this really about?
Banning rice would kill tens of millions of innocent people. I’m starting to think it’s never been about saving the planet . . . https://t.co/Sz1bcbQM49— Johnny Rotten’s American Cousin (@EERCANE) April 16, 2023
This is sinister. Removing rice or wheat from production would trigger global famine. We need to start recognizing voices pushing this agenda so we push back on this nonsense. @wef#2030agenda— WiseOldOwl (@RealAlexLucio) April 16, 2023
ALERT! In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch.
We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here.
Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.
Also, we urgently need your financial support here.
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
Now the authorities are after cryptos!
(zerohedge)
“Anything On The Table:” Coinbase CEO Mulls Moving Headquarters Outside US Amid Crypto Crackdown
TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 12:50 PM
Cryptocurrency executives hoped for a fresh start in 2023 following a year of setbacks. However, they’ve been battered by a government crackdown, numerous exchange blowups, and crypto-related bank failures.
Several weeks ago, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) tweeted she was building an “Anti-crypto Army.” So it appears an aggressive government crackdown on the crypto industry will persist through the coming election cycle.
That may be why crypto exchange Coinbase Global Inc has mulled over shifting headquarters outside the US unless pressure from Elizabeth Warren and state and federal regulators subside.
According to Bloomberg, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said, “Anything is on the table” when asked by former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne at a fintech conference in London on Tuesday whether the crypto exchange would move operations to the UK. “Including, you know, relocating or whatever is necessary,” Armstrong said.
The increasing relocation risk of Coinbase comes after the Securities and Exchange Commission slapped the crypto exchange with a Wells notice, warning the company about potential securities violations.
Meanwhile, lawmakers on Capitol Hill have a series of bills that could usher in strict regulation for the crypto space. Simultaneously, the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are discussing which regulator will oversee the space and whether crypto assets should be labeled as securities or commodities.
Armstrong cited mounting regulatory uncertainty in the US.
“The US has the potential to be an important market in crypto, but right now, we are not seeing that regulatory clarity needed,” Armstrong said, adding that the UK is Coinbase’s second largest market globally by revenue.
“I think if a number of years go by where we don’t see regulatory clarity emerge in the US, we may have to consider investing more in other regions of the world.”
With around 100 million verified users, Coinbase is set to expand across Europe. Should Elizabeth Warren’s anti-crypto army and government regulators maintain pressure on the industry, Coinbase’s relocation of its headquarters could become a reality.
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//,TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8765
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8783
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.72 POINTS OR 0.23%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 144.05 PTS OR 0.51%
2. Nikkei closed UP 144.05 PTS OR 0.51%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101.42 EURO RISES TO 1.0970 UP 45 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.470Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 133.79 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.454***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.266*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.470…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.319
3j Gold at $2003.80 silver at: 25.09 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 15 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.54//
3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 133.79 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .470% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8960 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9831 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.578 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.802 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.165 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.40…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 3 BASIS PTS AT 3.723
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
S&P Futures Hit 2 Month High: 4,200 Looms As Record Bearish Sentiment Leads To Another Meltup
TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 07:12 AM
We have said previously on more than one occasion that the bear market rally just won’t end until Wall Street’s two bearish cosplayers, Marko Kolanovic and Mike Wilson, throw in the towel and turn bearish…
… and sure enough, one day after both of these broken records published their latest weekly doom and gloom performance art meant solely to get institutional and retail investors to sell to their flow desks, futures have melted up even more, with spoos now trading a 2+ month high.
US equity futures were set to hold onto Monday’s sharp hour bounce as investors awaited a slew of earnings: contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.4% by 7:00a.m. in ET while Nasdaq 100 contracts outperformed, rising 0.7%. Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Netflix Inc. are among those reporting later.
In premarket trading, Riot Platforms led fellow cryptocurrency-exposed stocks higher in US premarket trading as Bitcoin rebounded to inch closer to the $30,000 mark. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Bank of America rose 2% after reporting solid earnings which beat on the top and bottom line.
Alibaba shares rise in US premarket trading after Reuters reported that Chinese regulators are expected to cut a fine on Ant Group to $700 million from an initially planned amount of more than $1 billion.
Gamida Cell rose as much as 81% in premarket trading on Tuesday, poised to set a second consecutive intraday record, after the FDA approved its cell therapy Omisirge for patients with blood cancers to reduce the risk of infection following stem cell transplantation.
The irony is that it is not just Marko and Mike that are dodecatupling down on bearishness as stocks melt up: so is everyone else. As Bloomberg notes, traders are “scaling the towering monolith of skepticism that currently comprises Wall Street’s view of markets takes uncommon courage” and the more the S&P 500 goes up — and it’s risen 6% in a month — the less people trust it. Hedge funds have been loading up bets against US stocks, and a model kept by Goldman Sachs shows mutual fund and futures-market outflows suggest that rather than rise, the index should have been down 3% over the past three months.
“Being bullish today is a very lonely proposition,” said Eric Diton, president and managing director of the Wealth Alliance. It is, also, very profitable and as we have repeatedly warned readers, positioning is so bearish that stocks have no choice but to melt up. Moreover, investor allocation to equities relative to bonds has dropped to its lowest level since the global financial crisis as worries about a recession take hold, according to Bank of America Corp.’s global fund manager survey.
And that’s why futures at 4,200 are a lock: because with everyone bearish, and nobody left to sell – or short – what comes next is another rolling short squeeze.
Traders are also anticipating the end of Federal Reserve policy tightening and are hoping for a milder-than-expected economic slowdown, optimism that has boosted equities this year. “If interest rates go down to the extent that’s priced into the forwards, we’re not going to get on top of inflation,” Euan Munro, chief executive officer at Newton Investment Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “Inflation is going to be quite hard to beat and will require interest rates to be held higher for a lot longer.”
European stocks are ahead with the Stoxx 600 up 0.5%, led by gains in the banks, mining and travel sectors. Here are the most notable European movers:
Demant rises as much as 8.1% after the Danish company posted first-quarter results ahead of expectations and boosted its FY guidance, with its Hearing Aids unit delivering a strong beat
Sika shares gain as much as 3.9% after the Swiss builder boosted sentiment by confirming its guidance and giving a positive indication on margin, according to Baader
Entain shares jump as much as 4.8% after the UK-based gambling company reported an increase in first-quarter net gaming revenue, with most analysts seeing in-line results
Moneysupermarket shares gain as much as 2.7% as analysts said the trading update from the price-comparison platform was robust, driven by strength for its Insurance segment
IntegraFin shares rise as much as 6.8%, the most since November, as analysts said the investment platform’s fiscal 2Q results look robust, prompting an upgrade from Numis
Volex shares rise as much as 19%, the most since April 2022, after the power products producer said its performance has been ahead of expectations
ALK-Abello falls the most since November 2007, after the Danish allergy medicines maker reported considerably smaller tablet sales in Europe than expected in a preliminary earnings release
Ericsson shares fall as much as 8.1%, their biggest intraday decline since January, after the 5G networking equipment-maker gave a tepid outlook for the second quarter
Wise shares fall as much as 16% after the money-transfer firm reported worse-than-expected total payment volume, attributing a drop in volume per customer to slower growth among frequent users
THG shares slide as much as 18%, the biggest intraday decline since Jan. 17, after the online retailer reported a bigger-than-estimated drop in first-quarter revenue
TUI shares fall as much as 6.1% in Frankfurt after a take-up of the company’s rights offering that Louis Capital Markets said looks weak at first glance
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed as investors digested an uneven set of Chinese economic data, which showed further signs of recovery with some patches of weakness. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.1% as of 5 p.m. in Hong Kong, with gains in industrial and financial shares offsetting losses in technology stocks. Benchmarks in Japan advanced, while those in Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea fell. Chinese shares eked out small gains as the economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the first quarter. The overall market reaction was muted as tepid property investment figures suggested the housing market remains a drag on the economy. A wave of insider selling of shares also weighed on sentiment.
“From the looks of it most of the major numbers beat estimates, especially GDP and retail sales,” said Willer Chen, senior analyst at Forsyth Barr Asia Ltd. “But property investment is still lagging and misses expectations, which echoes with broader concerns that the property market rebound could be a short-lived one as investments are not picking up.” The latest US earnings season has failed to impress investors so far, with an unexpected expansion in New York state manufacturing activity turning the focus to the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he wants to see more evidence that US inflation is easing back to the central bank’s goal of 2%. Europe and the US are going into a slight slump, and China is probably seeing growth pick up, Eva Lee, head of Greater China equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. It is an ideal scenario for people to “maybe reallocate a little bit more weighting onto China versus last year or last few years,” she said.
Japanese stocks rose for an eighth day, following US peers higher, driven by gains in banks and insurers. A strong start to the US earnings season and better-than-expected New York factory activity continue to boost global investors’ sentiment. The Nikkei advanced 0.5% to 28,658.83 as of the market close in Tokyo, reaching the highest since August 2022. The Topix rose 0.7% to 2,040.89 to the highest since March 9. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2%. Out of 2,158 stocks in the index, 1,581 rose and 470 fell, while 107 were unchanged. “Japanese stocks are strong due to easing fears of a worsening US economy and a weaker yen,” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management.
Australian stocks declined weighed by declines in energy and consumer staples stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 7,360.20. Most Asian stocks dropped as investors focused on patches of weakness in China’s economic data even as the overall picture was solid. Australia’s central bank discussed the case for raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its April meeting before deciding there was a stronger argument to pause its almost yearlong tightening cycle and wait for more data on the economy’s outlook.
India’s benchmark indexes dropped for a second straight day on Tuesday while small and midcap gauges extended their winning run as investors rotated allocations from frontline stocks to shares that had trailed their larger peers in recent months. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 59,727.01 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar measure. Meanwhile, the continued rally in BSE’s small and midcap gauges is the longest run of advances since 2018 and 2014, respectively. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.1%. The company will be reporting its March quarter earnings after the close of trading on Friday. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 13 rose, while 17 fell
In rates, Treasuries climbed led by the short-end and US stock futures advanced, pointing to a positive cash open. Gilt futures gap lower before extending declines while the British pound is among the best-performing G-10 currencies after data showed UK wages rose more than expected in February. UK two-year yields are up 6bps at 3.67% while cable gains 0.5% as the figures firmed up bets on a 25bps hike by the Bank of England in May. Bunds fall in sympathy with German two-year yields up 1bps at 2.89% while US yields edge lower. US economic data includes housing starts and building permits for March, while Fed’s Bowman discusses digital currencies
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is down 0.3%. Australia’s dollar rose after minutes of the Reserve Bank’s April meeting showed members discussed a quarter point hike before deciding on a pause. China’s “retail sales and quarterly GDP numbers have both exceeded expectations, hence the small pop higher in AUD even though industrial production and fixed asset investment have somewhat underwhelmed versus expectations,” said Ray Attrill, head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. The pound was the second best performer among G10 peers after UK wage growth accelerated unexpectedly, fueling inflation concerns.
In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI falling 0.3% to around $80.60. Spot gold rises 0.3% to around $2,002.
Bitcoin is firmer rising 1.2% and at the top-end of the sessions parameters, but is yet to regain the USD 30k mark after eclipsing it and subsequently losing the figure last week.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for February, the German ZEW survey for April, US housing starts and building permits for March, and Canada’s CPI for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bowman, the ECB’s Centeno, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Finally, today’s earnings include Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, United Airlines and Western Alliance Bancorp.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,183.00
MXAP little changed at 163.55
MXAPJ down 0.3% to 528.06
Nikkei up 0.5% to 28,658.83
Topix up 0.7% to 2,040.89
Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 20,650.51
Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,393.33
Sensex down 0.5% to 59,613.52
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,360.18
Kospi down 0.2% to 2,571.09
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 467.86
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.49%
Euro up 0.4% to $1.0974
Brent Futures down 0.2% to $84.59/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,003.15
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.37% to 101.72
Top Overnight news from Bloomberg
China reports bullish Q1 GDP (+4.5% vs. the Street consensus +4% and vs. +2.9% in Q4) and March retail sales (+10.6% Y/Y vs. the Street +7.5%), but March industrial production falls short (+3.9% vs. the Street consensus of +4.4%) and property investment continued to contract. BBG
Geopolitical rifts caused by rivalry between the US and China could push up inflation by 5 per cent and threaten the leading positions of the dollar and euro, Christine Lagarde has warned. FT
A Chinese laboratory conducting advanced coronavirus research faced a series of biosafety problems in November 2019 that drew the attention of top Beijing officials and coincided with the Covid pandemic’s emergence, according to a new report being released by Senate Republicans on the pandemic’s origins. The report charts a confluence of unexplained events in that month and concludes the pandemic more likely began from a lab accident than naturally, via an animal infecting humans. WSJ
Japan will stay the course to reach the central bank’s 2% inflation target by continuing monetary easing even though it may take time, Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday, signaling his stance to maintain loose conditions. RTRS
Corporate insolvencies rose 16 per cent last month from a year earlier in England and Wales as businesses contended with soaring costs and a weakening economy. Registered company insolvencies climbed to 2,457 in March from the same month a year ago and 83 per cent higher than in February 2020, before the Covid-19 pandemic, the Insolvency Service on Tuesday said. FT
UK wage growth jumps above expectations in Feb, raising inflation concerns (wages ex-bonus payments rose 6.6% in Feb vs. the Street consensus of +6.2%). BBG
While the data are still very preliminary, weak tax collections so far in April suggest an increased probability that the debt limit deadline will be reached in the first half of June. We have been projecting that Treasury could operate without a debt limit increase until early August. GIR
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are buying Russian energy products at depressed prices for domestic consumption and exporting their own oil at market rates. WSJ
JBHT reported a miss both Q1 EPS and revenue at 1.89/$3.23B (vs. the Street consensus of 2.01/$3.39B) and mgmt. on the call said the economy was in a “freight recession”. RTRS
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly subdued and failed to benefit from the slew of data from China including stronger GDP growth with the mood tentative across global markets ahead of upcoming earnings releases stateside. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in energy and consumer stocks, while the RBA Minutes reaffirmed the potential for future rate increases as the central bank noted it is important to be clear that policy may be tightened again to curb inflation in a timely manner and that inflation is still too high. Nikkei 225 was kept afloat following reports that the BoJ is mulling CPI projections for FY25 of between 1.6%-1.9% which would remain below the 2% price goal and support the case for a delayed exit from easy policy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were contained as participants reflected on the somewhat varied data releases from China in which GDP Q/Q matched estimates and Y/Y growth topped forecasts, while Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investments printed below expectations, but Retail Sales surged by a double-digit percentage.
Top Asian News
Chinese Finance Ministry official said there are positive changes in the property market but the market is still recovering gradually, while they will accelerate issuance and use of special local government bonds in H2.
China stats bureau said the international environment is still complex and growth of external demand remains uncertain, while it added that constraints of domestic market demand and insufficient demand still exist but noted that demand for production has basically rebounded, according to Reuters.
Chinese officers are accused of interfering with dissidents’ meetings on US technology platforms
Citigroup raises its China 2023 GDP forecast to 6.1% (prev. 5.7%).
RBA Minutes from the April Meeting stated that the board considered a rate hike at the April meeting before deciding to pause, while it agreed there was a stronger case to pause and reassess the need for tightening at future meetings. RBA said it is assessing data on inflation, jobs, consumer spending and business conditions, as well as noted that updated RBA forecasts in May will help assess when and how much more tightening is needed. Furthermore, RBA said it is important to be clear that policy may be tightened again to curb inflation in a timely manner and noted that inflation is still too high.
BoJ’s Ueda says there is no immediate need to review the 2013 joint statement with the government, positive signs are emerging in prices and wage growth. Will achieve inflation target, although it may take time.
India is weighing a revamp of income tax with a focus on capital gains, according to Bloomberg; could streamline capital gains and income tax rules with law changes in 2024.
European bourses are firmer across the board and were resilient to softer than expected ZEW numbers with earnings in full-focus, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%. Sectors have a positive tilt, with Banks, Basic Resources and Travel/Leisure outperforming with the latter assisted by a well-received H1 update from easyJet while Telecoms lag on Ericsson’s downside as they expect to remain cautious. Stateside, futures are in the green with the NQ +0.6% outperforming a touch as yields ease off highs while the broader focus is firmly on upcoming bank earnings. Airbus (AIR FP) has informed airlines of delivery delays for the A320neo-family jets slated for delivery in 2024, according to Reuters sources; several hundred jets are set to be postponed by around three months.
Top European News
EU Commission President von der Leyen says they must be more assertive on trade defense tools, now discussing outbound investment screening.
French Finance Minister says France will accelerate debt-cutting plans.
FX
Buck backs off after making a solid start to the week, with the DXY losing grip of 102.000 and sight of 21 DMA at 102.210.
Aussie outpaces fellow G10s in wake of hawkish RBA minutes, as AUD/USD eyes 200 DMA at 0.6750.
Kiwi up in slipstream and back on a 0.6200 handle against Greenback pre-NZ CPI.
Pound perks up on the eve of UK CPI as hot wages put Cable back above 1.24.
Euro shrugs off weak ZEW metrics amidst a broad Dollar downturn but is facing more decent option expiries at 1.10000.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8814 vs exp. 6.8828 (prev. 6.8679)
Fixed Income
Bunds bounce firmly within 133.49-86 range as the 10-year yield holds around 2.5% and the latest German ZEW survey disappoints in terms of sentiment and expectations.
Gilts pare some declines between 101.11-56 parameters as the 2053 DMO sale is covered 2.5x.
T-note idles inside a 114-13/08 band ahead of US housing data, Fed Discount Rate meeting minutes and Bowman.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are subdued despite the downbeat USD, firmer tilt to stocks and Chinese data; desks highlight the progress between Iraqi and Kurdish governments in negotiations may be capping any upside.
Nat Gas prices are contained after the marked rally seen stateside yesterday amid forecasts for colder-than-usual weather.
Metals remain underpinned by the waning USD with Spot Gold holding at USD 2k/oz, while industrial metals benefit from Chinese GDP though LME Copper is struggling to retain the USD 9k handle.
Brazil’s March oil and gas production fell 11.95% M/M, according to oil regulator ANP cited by Reuters.
Committee of ministers in Chile approved an environmental permit for Anglo American’s (AAL LN) Los Bronces project.
Geopolitics
G7 Foreign Ministers communique said they condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine which constitutes a serious violation of international law including the UN Charter, while it noted that Russia’s irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and threats to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus are unacceptable. The communique also stated there is no legal basis for China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea and they oppose China’s militarisation activities in the region, according to Reuters.
Taiwan is to buy 400 US anti-ship missiles intended to repel China in a deal which is Taiwan’s first for land-launched harpoon missiles, according to Bloomberg.
Russian Defence Ministry said two Russian strategic bombers carried out routine flights over the Okhotsk and Bering Sea, according to Tass.
Russian Defence Ministry says Russia-Chinese cooperation serves to stabilise the global situation, should help each other in military issues. Remarks which were subsequently echoed by China.
Russian Kremlin says President visited Kherson and Luhansk regions on Monday; is not aware of any peace plan for Ukraine proposed by France.
Japan’s Defence Ministry has scrambled jet fighters to Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Seas of Japan
US Event Calendar
08:30: March Building Permits MoM, est. -6.5%, prior 13.8%, revised 15.8%
08:30: March Building Permits, est. 1.45m, prior 1.52m, revised 1.55m
08:30: March Housing Starts MoM, est. -3.5%, prior 9.8%
08:30: March Housing Starts, est. 1.4m, prior 1.45m
DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap
I was back in the office yesterday after skiing. Was a good trip and one where it felt like the batton was being passed. For the sake of my knees I shouldn’t really ski much anymore (they are sore now) but we did our first family day at the end of the holiday as the twins graduated from a first week of ski school and Maisie could ski again after her hip disease (Perthes). At least I can say I had one day with all of them before I fall apart and retire ungracefully. We will see. Maisie had her latest scan yesterday on our return and relative to the diagnosis we first had nearly 2 years ago she’s made close to the best possible progress she could have made. At the start of the process that ended up with a big operation and 14 months in a wheelchair, they were worried we would have to manage her hip and the pain carefully through childhood and for her to have a hip replacement as soon as she was fully grown. However the scan yesterday showed that the hip ball has now regrown back as normal as it could be given the circumstances. The doctor said she may not now need a hip replacement until she’s nearer 50! She’s not out of the woods yet but it’s gone as well as it could have at this stage and is now worth all the sacrifices. So I may have knee replacements at a younger age than she has her hip done, albeit 40 years apart. Anyway for all the happiness, all I can say is that it’s now good to be back and away from all the noise, fights, tears and tantrums.
While I’ve been away it’s clear the story has been a steady recovery back towards, and in some cases better than, pre-SVB levels. For me the script remains the same as it has been for the last couple of years. This is a boom/bust US cycle and we’re getting closer to the bust part. We’ve highlighted H2 2023 as the likely bust part for the past year or so and nothing has really deviated us from that regardless of the good or bad news along the way. However I doubt big banks will be at the epicentre of it as a lot has positively changed in their fundamentals since the GFC. So a retreat from peak financial pessimism makes sense. However things will continue to fall off the wheel in the broader financial system as the lagged impact of tighter monetary policy continues to bite as it does in virtually every hiking cycle. So we’re in the early days of the monetary policy lag still in my opinion.
On a similar note, this morning my credit team have published a strategy update entitled “Squeeze Before The Storm” (link here). The piece suggests that global credit markets may see a continued rally as investors price in a soft-landing. The belief is that March’s banking crisis will not accelerate the end of the US or European credit cycle. Hence, we retain our spread targets and believe credit will remain resilient through the spring, especially in €IG. However, the negative impacts of tighter Fed & ECB policy are still in the process of damaging growth, keeping us on track for decompression & material spread widening by the end of 2023. See the piece for more.
While we distance ourselves from the SVB shock, the last 24 hours has continued to see sovereign bonds selling off as investors continue to dial back the chances of rate cuts this year. This got an added kicker yesterday from some solid US data that offered fresh hope of the economy’s resilience. In particular, the Empire State manufacturing survey for April came in at a 9-month high of 10.8 (vs. -18.0 expected), and the new orders subcomponent was at a one-year high of 25.1. In the meantime, the NAHB’s index of homebuilder sentiment rose for a fourth straight month in April, recovering further after a run of declines throughout 2022.
This growing optimism around the economy’s near-term performance means that investors are now almost fully pricing in another Fed rate hike at their meeting on May 3. In fact, futures took the chances up to 88% yesterday, which is their highest since the SVB collapse. And looking further out, the rate priced in by the December meeting rose +7.7bps to 4.56%, which is likewise a post-SVB high. In many respects, what we’ve seen so far is reminiscent of the Fed ‘pivot’ trades over the last 18 months, when investors would dial back the prospect of rate hikes and grow hopeful about a dovish shift in response to some shock, before ratcheting them even higher still as both the economy and inflation proved resilient. Now obviously we’re still some way from the pre-SVB situation, when terminal rate pricing got all the way to 5.69% (vs. 5.10% now), but the direction over the last month has been progressively higher since the turmoil subsided.
Fed speakers have also grown more ambivalent after initial calls for caution shortly after the SVB and Signature bank failures. Yesterday, Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin (non-voter) said that he wanted “to see more evidence that inflation is settling back to our target,” and that the “labor market has moved from red-hot to merely hot.”
With investors becoming more sceptical that the Fed will cut rates anytime soon, Treasuries sold off most of the day, with the 2yr yield up +9.3bps to 4.189%. That’s their 7th increase over the last 8 sessions, taking yields up to their highest closing level in over a month. The range has been from 5.07% to 3.77% from just before the SVB news hit to now. And the 10yr yield was also up +8.0bps to 3.59% (same range is 4.055% to 3.305%). 10yr yields actually peaked as House Speaker McCarthy was giving a speech on the debt ceiling which we expand on below. Meanwhile in Europe, the direction of travel was the same albeit with smaller moves, as yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+1.5bps) and BTPs (+0.7bps) were all higher. One factor influencing that was the perception that 50bps still remained on the table for the ECB’s May meeting, with Latvia’s Kazaks saying that a 50bps move “is not an option that can be ignored.”
Whilst there was a clear movement on the rates side yesterday, equities held fairly steady and the S&P 500 (+0.33%) posted a modest rise. State Street (-9.18%) was the worst performer in the index, which came as they reported more outflows than expected, while competitor Charles Schwab announced outflows that were “as-expected” and rallied +3.94%. Despite State Street’s drop, banks (+2.10%) outperformed along with other cyclicals, while megacap tech stocks saw large declines thanks to the rates moves as the FANG+ Index fell -0.25%. Back in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.01%) was just worse than unchanged but broke a run of 5 consecutive gains.
Overnight in Asia, equities in the region are trading mixed following a decent Q1 GDP beat from China. The YoY figure came in at 4.5% (vs 4.0% median estimate on Bloomberg), supported by strong retail sales growth in particular in a sign of a more consumer-led post-covid recovery. However, we also saw soft industrial production (YoY 3.9% vs 4.4% expected) and fixed asset investment data for March, in contrast to a retail sales beat (10.6% vs 7.5%). So this has highlighted an uneven recovery at this stage. Net net this left Chinese stocks roughly flat (CSI 300 +0.08%), putting them ahead of most of the rest of the region, with the Hang Seng (-0.78%) and the Kospi (-0.34%) in the red so far. Japanese equities are the main outperformer, with the Nikkei rising +0.49%. US equity futures are flat (S&P 500 -0.04%) and Treasury yields are down by c -1bps across the curve.
Another important story coming up is with regards to the US debt ceiling, which is something that remains in the backdrop as we come closer to the so-called “X-date” when the government would no longer be able to meet its obligations; potentially over the summer. Today is the deadline for most of the US to file taxes, and so we should have a better idea of what that “X-date” is soon. Those payments will filter down to the Treasury’s operating budget and then attention will turn to another reporting of tax revenue in June. Yesterday saw House Speaker McCarthy give a speech at the New York Stock Exchange, where he said that “a no string-attached debt limit increase will not pass” and called for spending cuts. At the moment, the next step in the process will likely be for the Republicans to vote on a bill that raises the debt ceiling. That isn’t going to pass in the Democratic-controlled Senate, but the logic is to demonstrate what Republicans are prepared to back as McCarthy looks to negotiate an increase in the limit with the White House.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for February, the German ZEW survey for April, US housing starts and building permits for March, and Canada’s CPI for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bowman, the ECB’s Centeno, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Finally, today’s earnings include Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, United Airlines and Western Alliance Bancorp.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Stronger Chinese data failed to bolster APAC trade with key earnings due – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 01:46 AM
APAC stocks traded mostly subdued and failed to benefit from the slew of data from China including stronger GDP.
Chinese Y/Y GDP topped forecasts, IP and Fixed Asset Investments printed below expectations, Retail Sales surged by a double-digit percentage.
European equity futures are indicative of a contained cash open, with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed -0.5% yesterday.
DXY holds onto gains and the 102 handle, EUR/USD and Cable remain sub 1.10 and 1.24 respectively.
Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment, German ZEW, US Housing Starts/Building Permits, Canadian CPI, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speech from Fed’s Bowman, Supply from Netherlands & UK, Earnings from Ericsson, United Airlines, JNJ, Netflix, Goldman Sachs & Bank of America.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks eventually pared losses heading into the close as the spot VIX printed 52-week lows beneath 17 and the VIX futures curve steepened further into contango. Newsflow was quiet with equity volatility compression the main story and participants digested mixed earnings releases, while other assets were contained.
SPX +0.33% at 4,151, NDX +0.06% at 13,087, DJIA +0.30% at 33,987, RUT +1.22% at 1,802.
Fed’s Barkin (non-voter) said he is reassured by what he’s seeing in the banking sector and never wants to declare victory on potential bank strain.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer said they are headed to a default if House Speaker McCarthy continues in this direction, while he added that cuts should be part of budget talks, not the debt limit. It was separately reported that House GOP Scalise said the GOP debt ceiling plan is coming on Tuesday.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mostly subdued and failed to benefit from the slew of data from China including stronger GDP growth with the mood tentative across global markets ahead of upcoming earnings releases stateside.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in energy and consumer stocks, while the RBA Minutes reaffirmed the potential for future rate increases as the central bank noted it is important to be clear that policy may be tightened again to curb inflation in a timely manner and that inflation is still too high.
Nikkei 225 was kept afloat following reports that the BoJ is mulling CPI projections for FY25 of between 1.6%-1.9% which would remain below the 2% price goal and support the case for a delayed exit from easy policy.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were contained as participants reflected on the somewhat varied data releases from China in which GDP Q/Q matched estimates and Y/Y growth topped forecasts, while Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investments printed below expectations, but Retail Sales surged by a double-digit percentage.
US equity futures (ES -0.1%) were flat after the late bounce heading into the Wall St close and as key earnings loom.
European equity futures are indicative of a contained cash open, with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed -0.5% yesterday.
FX
DXY marginally softened but held on to most of the prior day’s gains after reclaiming the 102.00 status owing to the recent upside in yields and better-than-expected NY Fed Manufacturing data.
EUR/USD traded rangebound after its recent losses and firm pullback from resistance at the 1.1000 level.
GBP/USD reverted to below the 1.2400 handle again following recent price swings and tentative risk tone.
USD/JPY was choppy but kept afloat after the recent widening of yield differentials and reports of a potential below-target Core CPI forecast for FY25 at next week’s BoJ Outlook Report.
Antipodeans were mildly underpinned post-Chinese data and with AUD/USD slightly outperforming after the RBA Minutes kept the door wide open for a future resumption of rate increases.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8814 vs exp. 6.8828 (prev. 6.8679)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures languished near the prior day’s lows after the recent upside in yields owing to the firm data from the US and improved banking sector sentiment.
Bund futures remained lacklustre following a retreat to sub-134.00.
10yr JGB futures were kept afloat after a report noted a potential below-target CPI projection by the BoJ for FY25 and with the BoJ offering to purchase corporate bonds, while the enhanced liquidity auction in the long-end also attracted firmer demand.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were rangebound amid the tentative risk tone, recent dollar strength and mixed China data.
US DoE said US SPR reserves fell 1.58mln bbls last week to 368mln bbls which is the lowest since 1983.
EIA sees US total shale regions oil production for May up about 50k BPD at 9.238mln (prev. 65k BPD rise in April).
Federal Iraq and KRG edge closer to deal to restart northern oil exports, while KRG oil will not be sold to Asia under the emerging agreement between Baghdad and Erbil, according to Reuters sources.
Brazil’s March oil and gas production fell 11.95% M/M, according to oil regulator ANP cited by Reuters.
Spot gold eked marginal gains and attempted to reclaim the psychological USD 2,000/oz level.
Copper futures traded sideways and alongside stocks, failed to benefit from the Chinese GDP data.
Committee of ministers in Chile approved an environmental permit for Anglo American’s (AAL LN) Los Bronces project.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was indecisive with prices capped by resistance at the USD 29,500 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Chinese Finance Ministry official said there are positive changes in the property market but the market is still recovering gradually, while they will accelerate issuance and use of special local government bonds in H2.
China stats bureau said the international environment is still complex and growth of external demand remains uncertain, while it added that constraints of domestic market demand and insufficient demand still exist but noted that demand for production has basically rebounded, according to Reuters.
Chinese officers are accused of interfering with dissidents’ meetings on US technology platforms,
RBA Minutes from the April Meeting stated that the board considered a rate hike at the April meeting before deciding to pause, while it agreed there was a stronger case to pause and reassess the need for tightening at future meetings. RBA said it is assessing data on inflation, jobs, consumer spending and business conditions, as well as noted that updated RBA forecasts in May will help assess when and how much more tightening is needed. Furthermore, RBA said it is important to be clear that policy may be tightened again to curb inflation in a timely manner and noted that inflation is still too high.
DATA RECAP
Chinese GDP QQ (Q1) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. 0.6%)
Chinese GDP YY (Q1) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 2.9%)
Chinese Industrial Production YY (Mar) 3.9% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 2.4%)
Chinese Retail Sales YY (Mar) 10.6% vs. Exp. 7.4% (Prev. 3.5%)
Chinese Urban Investment YY YTD (Mar) 5.1% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 5.5%)
GEOPOLITICAL
G7 Foreign Ministers communique said they condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine which constitutes a serious violation of international law including the UN Charter, while it noted that Russia’s irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and threats to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus are unacceptable. The communique also stated there is no legal basis for China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea and they oppose China’s militarisation activities in the region, according to Reuters.
Taiwan is to buy 400 US anti-ship missiles intended to repel China in a deal which is Taiwan’s first for land-launched harpoon missiles, according to Bloomberg.
EU/UK
ECB President Lagarde said data does not show substantial changes in the use of international currencies, while she responded that once the inflation objective is achieved, they can discuss it when asked about changing the 2% goal.
French CFDT union leader said French President Macron has offered nothing concrete and they do not expect to return to negotiations before May 1st.
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.72 PTS OR 0.23% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 131.94 POINTS OR 0.63% /The Nikkei closed UP 144.05 PTS OR 0.51% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.27 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8765/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8783 /Oil DOWN TO 80.67 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.64 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
Supposedly China’s economy is rebounding with their report of a strong 4.5% gain in GDP
(zerohedge)
“The Recovery Is On Track”: China Economy Rebounds Strongly With 4.5% GDP Jump In Q1
TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 05:58 AM
Last week, when discussing the latest record – for the month of March – Chinese credit injection which saw a massive 5.4 trillion yuan in Total Social Financing, beating estimates by almost CNY 1 trillion…
… and sparking a surge in China’s all-important Credit Impulse…
… we said that China’s delayed “liftoff was imminent”, and that “the 2008 deja vu meter just went off the charts, because while the US is about to sink into a recession with commercial real estate set to fall all off a cliff, it is once again China that is – willingly or otherwise – set to serve as the world’s growth dynamo at a time when the entire developed world is about to max out at the same time. This is precisely what happened in 2008 when China unleashed the biggest credit expansion in modern history, sparking not only historic growth spree but also an exponential debt increase that sent China’s debt to over 300% of GDP.”
Since then, we have seen China report stellar trade data with both exports and imports sharply higher than expected, more solid real estate prints as housing prices have clearly rebounded from two years of decline, and most importantly, overnight China’s Q1 GDP also surprised to the upside, rising at a 4.5% annual clip in the first quarter – the strongest quarter for the Chinese economy since Q1 2022 – as strong growth in exports and infrastructure investment as well as a rebound in retail consumption and property prices drove a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.
The official figure, which exceeded analyst expectations of a 4% rise and was the third consecutive beat of the median forecast…
… followed efforts by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government to restore business confidence damaged by pandemic controls last year and abrupt policy changes.
That said, the Q1 growth rate was just short of the government’s recently upgraded full-year target of 5%, held back by a nationwide Covid-19 outbreak at the start of this year, but economists expect it to pick up pace as the year progresses.
Xi, who formally embarked on an unprecedented third term as China’s president last month, is keen to revive economic growth following China’s shocking reversal of its covid-zero policy. Last year, GDP expanded just 3%, missing the official target of 5.5% which was already the lowest in decades.
“Definitely, the recovery’s on track,” said Tao Wang, UBS chief China economist. “The momentum at the beginning of the year was stronger than expected.”
Echoing what we said last week, the FT writes that “China’s rebound is crucial to global economic growth this year as developed nations grapple with persistently high inflation, rising interest rates and sluggish expansion in the wake of the pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
“The national economy showed a steady recovery and made a good start,” China’s National Bureau of Statistics said. But the agency cautioned the situation was “complex and volatile, inadequate domestic demand remains prominent and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet”.
Curiously, while Chinese commodities markets rallied following Tuesday’s data release, equities failed to hold on to early gains. That’s because the data may have snuffed out recent hopes that bad news is good news and would lead to more stimulus. As Bloomberg reports Sofia Horta e Costa writes, “It’s clear markets are setting a high bar for China’s economy. So China data beats estimates yet again, but hardly anything moves in local assets. What’s going on?”
In March I wrote about how some traders were betting on a consumption-driven recovery, and others believed more stimulus would be forthcoming. You were either in one camp or the other. The issue for markets right now is that the macro picture is falling somewhere in the middle. Yes, the data is good — in some ways much better than expected — but not good enough for bulls to make a compelling case for a reopening boom in the economy.
The rebound is fragile, with pockets of weakness including the property market and factories. It’s also uneven: consumers may be spending more but they’re mainly focused on restaurants and jewelry. And the central bank is erring on the cautious side of stimulus. The bar is increasingly getting higher for any meaningful market reaction. We either need a blowout set of data across the board or more action from Beijing.
Indeed, while the Chinese data has been strong so far, it is certainly not blowout, at least not yet.
China abandoned zero-Covid restrictions in December amid popular opposition to the rolling lockdowns that paralyzed cities across the country for most of the year. The easing unleashed pent-up demand in the retail sector, where sales rose 5.8% year on year in the first quarter and 10.6% in March, both coming in well above expectations. But the base of comparison with last year was low, given that Shanghai started a months-long lockdown in late February 2022.
Premier Li Qiang, Xi’s new number two, signalled at China’s rubber-stamp parliament last month that the government would relax a crackdown on business that has wiped billions of dollars from property developers and internet platforms.
Elsewhere, manufacturing investment rose 7% year on year in the first quarter and industrial output gained 3%. Exports showed strong growth, up 8.4% in the first quarter, and state-led infrastructure investment climbed 8.8%, while overall fixed asset investment rose 5.1%, a modest miss to expectations. Private investment was weak, up just 0.6 %, suggesting a decline in March. The jobless rate fell to 5.3% in March from 5.6% in February, but youth unemployment hit the second-highest mark on record, at 19.6%.
At the same time, while home prices may be rising, housing sector woes persisted: the property sector’s woes continued, with new housing starts tumbling 19.2% year on year in the first quarter. Home sales by area declined 1.8% but sales by value rose 4.1%, pointing to a nascent recovery in prices. Indeed, in March, new home prices rose at their fastest pace in 21 months.
Following the news, Citigroup economists upgraded their forecast for 2023 GDP growth to 6.1% from 5.7% previously after strong data Tuesday. “Consumption recovery continued to be divergent across sectors, with services outperforming,” economists led by Xiangrong Yu wrote in a Tuesday research note. “Normalization in savings and improvement in employment” has provided “potential upside”
The property sector also improved steadily in March compared to the first two months of the year, especially for sales. The growth pickup “perhaps further lowers the necessity of stimulus,” the economists wrote, adding that they “don’t expect anything major” in the upcoming April Politburo meeting. This year could be a “window of opportunities for policymakers to address structural issues, such as weak private confidence, youth unemployment and local government debt.”
Other economists also said momentum would pick up in the second quarter, helped by the low base effect, but warned that consumption and property might struggle to maintain strong growth, while exports could be threatened by weaker developed markets.
Xi’s administration also remained hamstrung by a lack of credibility after hobbling the private sector, experts said.
Keyu Jin, a professor at the London School of Economics and author of The New China Playbook, said the biggest obstacle was the gap in private sector demand, both in consumption and investment.
“It will take time for confidence to come back to the Chinese economy,” she said, although what she really meant is that it would take a lot of new debt and credit. And as we showed last week, Beijing is already injecting record amounts of it as it prepares to become the world’s growth pillar now that the US is set to slide into recession.
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
POLAND/HUNGARY/EU
EU again slams Poland and Hungary for refusing to important Ukrainian food due to huge surpluses in their country
(zerohedge)
EU Slams Poland & Hungary’s Ban On Ukrainian Food Imports As Other Countries Threaten To Join Blockade
The European Commission has slammed Poland and Hungary’s ban on Ukrainian food imports, saying member states cannot make such decisions regarding trade policy.
The leader of the ruling conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), Jarosław Kaczyński, announced over the weekend that a range of agricultural products such as grain, fruits, dairy, vegetables and poultry meat would be stopped from entering Poland from Ukraine. The decision has come as a result of the glut of grain from Ukraine and the flood of Ukrainian products onto the Polish market. In addition, Hungary and Slovakia have enacted similar measures, and there are reports that Romania and Bulgaria may also close their border to certain Ukrainian food imports.
“Bulgarian interests must be protected. Moreover, now that two countries have already acted in this way, if we do not react, the accumulations on Bulgarian territory could become even bigger,” Bulgaria’s acting Agriculture Minister Yavor Gechev said.
If Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Poland all block Ukrainian food product transit, it would effectively result in a geographical blockade in Europe, as the four countries border Ukraine.
Despite the growing crisis affecting Central and Eastern European countries, the European Commission argues that trade policy is the exclusive competence of the European Union and that “unilateral actions are unacceptable.” It also asserted that in difficult times, it was important to maintain coordination and unity in EU actions.
According to commercial television station Polsat News, the matter has already been the subject of calls between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal.
Hungarian Minister of Agriculture István Nagy announced on Saturday that Hungary will also temporarily ban the import of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine, as well as several other agricultural products, after Poland announced its ban.
According to the ministry’s statement, the continuation of the current market trends would cause such serious damage to Hungarian agriculture that extraordinary measures must be taken to prevent them. He added that Ukrainian agriculture uses production practices no longer allowed in the European Union resulting in extremely low production costs. Ukraine was also given duty-free access to the European market, with free trade opportunities for grain and oilseeds, as well as large quantities of poultry, eggs and honey, making it impossible for Hungarian and Central European farmers to compete.
Nagy stressed that the restriction on imports into Hungary is temporary and will last until June 30, 2023, which may be enough time to take meaningful and lasting EU measures for a lasting solution.
According to the statement, the agricultural sector expects the EU to ensure fair market conditions for European agriculture. The Hungarian government will always stand by Hungarian farmers and will protect Hungarian agriculture, the minister said.
Despite several affected member states’ demands for a Union-level solution, the EU has so far done nothing to rectify the situation.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture has expressed disappointment at Poland’s decision and stated that the decision was contrary to the agreement between the two countries. The statement went on to acknowledge that Polish farmers were in a difficult situation, but that “the situation of Ukrainian farmers was the most acute of all.”
A statutory instrument banning the import of chosen products from Ukraine was introduced by the Polish minister of development and technology, Waldemar Buda. He tweeted that “in answer to questions that are arising, the ban is of a comprehensive nature including the transit of such goods through Poland.”
The transit will be a subject of discussion with Ukraine regarding tightening the system to establish “guarantees that these products will not remain in Poland.” The goods that have been banned include grain, sugar, fruits and vegetables, wines, meat, dairy products and poultry.
Last year, the Russian naval blockade of Ukrainian grain shipments caused global wheat prices to rise by 60 percent in three months. The food crisis was mainly a concern for poorer countries in Africa and Asia, so Western countries have used every means possible to get supplies out of Ukraine. However, many of those supplies have remained in Europe, leading to drastic reductions in wheat prices.
Countries neighboring Ukraine set up solidarity corridors to transport grain to EU ports by boosting rail transport capacity. At the same time, the European Union abolished import tariffs against Kyiv so that the crops were freely flooding into Europe at depressed prices.
Ukraine’s imports of grain to the EU were 287,000 tons in 2021, rising to nearly 2.9 million tons in 2022.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA
ROBERT H TO US:
No surprise
US Embassy in Moscow has rejected an invitation to US Ambassador Lynn Tracy to attend a meeting of the State Duma Commission on Investigation of Foreign Interference in Russia’s Internal Affairs on 18 April to explain the activities of US bio-labs in Ukraine
“The US Embassy in Moscow confirms that we have declined the State Duma’s invitation to Ambassador Tracy to attend the meeting of the Russian State Duma Commission,” the US Embassy said.
According to the embassy, the United States “fully complies with its obligations under the Biological Weapons Convention and does not develop or possess such weapons”, and Washington has already “fully debunked” the allegations against it.
END
This is not surprising at all!!
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Leaked Document Shows American Smart Bombs Are Failing In Ukraine
TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 05:44 AM
American-made smart bombs are failing in Ukraine, based on successful Russian electronic jamming measures, according to a Pentagon document connected to alleged leaker Jack Teixeira.
The highly-classified document not only reviews use of effective Russian countermeasures to make the smart bombs ineffective, but also says that in some cases technical problems are resulting in failure to detonate.
A Biden administration defense aid program has involved sending the Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) to Ukraine in order to turn unguided bombs into GPS guided “smart bombs” capable of hitting targets over 50 miles away.
A larger problem is that Russia is using GPS jamming to interfere with the weapons’ targeting process, according to the slide and a separate person familiar with the issue who’s not in the U.S. government. American officials believe Russian jamming is causing the JDAMs, and at times other American weapons such as guided rockets, to miss their mark.
“I do think there may be concern that the Russians may be jamming the signal used to direct the JDAMs, which would answer why these munitions are not performing in the manner expected and how they perform in other war zones,” said Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official and retired CIA officer.
The document mentions that “1,000 arming lanyards” were approved for Ukrainian forces, suggesting that over 1,000 of the smart bomb kits will be sent.
Far from being the ‘game changer’ that Kiev hoped for, other major US-provided systems are failing as well. The leaked Pentagon documents elsewhere make mention of M270 and HIMARs rockets being thwarted by Russian forces’ GPS jamming tactics. Some documents among the trove of leaks have consistently shown that Ukraine’s military is generally beset by ammunition and weapons shortages, despite the billions in defense aid pledged from the West.
END
Afghanistan is rich in mineral recourses and they will be exploited to the fullest by China and Russia. The USA occupied Afghanistan for 18 years and did nothing:
Robert H to us:
RUSSIA/CHINA/AFGHANISTAN
Russia, China Look To ‘Dig Deep’ In Mineral-Rich Afghanistan; Samarkand Conference Blasts US, Overlooks Iran & Pakistan
China will successfully mine minerals in Afghanistan making the Taliban a mercantile economy force. So different than failed American logic. Prosperity brings friendship over poppy fields so exploited under American patronage and now fully eradicated. How crazy is this?
US Embassy Convoy Comes Under Attack In Sudan, Ceasefire Crumbling
TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 11:30 AM
Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed on Tuesday that a US diplomatic convoy came under intense gunfire in the capital of Sudan following multiple days of fighting between the military and a rival paramilitary group amid a struggle to rule the nation.
Blinken in statements issued from Japan called the attack, which included at least 100 rounds fired on the US embassy convoy according to international reports, a “reckless” and “irresponsible” attack and called on both sides of the raging conflict to uphold the safety and security of American diplomatic personnel.
He confirmed that none of the Americans were injured, and that the convoy came under fire despite clearly bearing diplomatic plates and a US flag.
The attackers are believed affiliated with the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia in Khartoum, especially given assailants from the same militia were likely behind a prior attack on the EU ambassador within his own residence.
US ambassador to Sudan John Godfrey wasn’t injured in the rare incident, nor was he traveling in the US convoy when it came under fire.
The RSF has been engulfed in a battle with the country’s military over several days, with two rival generals leading the civil conflict, and as the death toll mounts, soaring past185 killed as of Tuesday. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that the spiraling conflict “is now catastrophic” for civilians and as an unfolding humanitarian disaster.
Blinken additionally in the Tuesday press briefing said he spoke by phone with the military chiefs of both rival sides. He informed the commander of the Sudanese military General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan as well as the commander of the RSF militia Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (widely known as Hemedti) that they must ensure the safety of civilians, diplomatic personnel, and humanitarian workers.
Further according to Axios, “Blinken said he proposed to the two generals a 24-hour humanitarian ceasefire in Sudan that would allow the delivery of aid and could be a basis for a more stable cessation of hostilities.”
The Sudanese army initially said it has agreed to a 24-hour pause in fighting starting Tuesday, but it appears to already be breaking down, as the RSF quickly charged that Sudanese armed forces had “failed to honor” the agreement.
Fresh fighting is once again breaking out. The situation remains fluid and unclear, per NY Times:
The army in a statement had accused the R.S.F. of trying to use a cease-fire “to cover up the crushing defeat it will receive within hours.” But Arabic language news media reported that the army chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, had agreed to the deal.
Over the weekend when heavy gunfire and explosions rocked the capital, US Embassy personnel and American citizens in the country were told to “shelter in place” – after which emergency evacuations commenced while the situation spiraled.
Below is a chart showing how prone to coups the country of Sudan has been over a period of decades…
The extension was announced on April 11 by NZ Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, who noted that his cabinet performed a “difficult balancing act” and had to “weigh a number of things quite carefully.” Under NZ law, those who test positive for COVID-19 must isolate for seven days from when they first show symptoms.
“The isolation period serves not just to relieve pressure on the health system and result in fewer people being infected,” said Hipkins. “But actually, there is a labor market incentive for this as well.”
According to the prime minister, Wellington has plans to evaluate a somewhat more relaxed system that could allow people to return to work more quickly after testing negative over the summer. He also insinuated that the quarantine policy could possibly be eschewed entirely in 2024, though he has not firmly committed to a timetable.
“We are heading toward a point where COVID-19 will become normal,” Hipkins remarked, estimating that this could happen “certainly at the latest by the end of the winter.”
Other NZ officials also defended the move to extend the mandatory quarantine for COVID-positive individuals.
“That doesn’t mean that we want the measures to stay in place forever. We certainly all want to see them go,” said NZ Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni. “But right at the beginning of winter is not the time that we see it as the time to ease up on restrictions.”
NZ Health Minister Dr. Ayesha Verrall also shared the same sentiments, saying: “We know isolation for COVID-19 cases is the best way to break the chain of transmission to make sure people aren’t passing on the virus and getting other people sick. Isolation remains effective in managing spread and keeping case numbers down, and it also helps reduce pressure on our hospital services.”
NZ’s ongoing medical tyranny blasted
At least one opposition politician voiced out his disagreement with the extension of the mandatory quarantine.
David Seymour, leader of the ACT party in the NZ House of Representatives, called the decision “a kind of hermit kingdom redux, 2023 edition.” He also blasted the ruling NZ Labor Party that Hipkins is part of for “treating adults like kids” and “putting costs on the economy like money is no object.” Seymour also cited several nations that have dropped isolation requirements for those that tested positive for COVID-19.
“In the U.K., isolation has been voluntary since last September. Australia’s national cabinet ended mandatory isolation requirements last October. Singapore’s government decommissioned its COVID-19 website in February,” said the opposition lawmaker. “They’ve really moved on.”
NZ is one of the few remaining countries that mandate quarantines for people who test positive for COVID-19. Italy still requires COVID-positive people to isolate for five days. South Korea also requires a seven-day isolation period, but plans to cut this back to five days.
Head over to MedicalTyranny.com for more stories about COVID-19 mandates in New Zealand.
A new study could open the path for easier and earlier screening for Alzheimer’s disease, with the possibility of detecting the incurable neurodegenerative disease up to a decade in advance.
Early detection of Alzheimer’s disease is critical for effective treatment. However, there are no reliable methods for such detection at present. The study, done by researchers from Sweden’s Karolinska Institutet and published April 12 in Alzheimer’s & Dementia—the journal of the Alzheimer’s Association—involves analyzing a type of glycan structure in the blood called bisected N-acetylglucosamine. This glycan structure is linked to the level of tau, a protein playing a key role in the development of severe dementia.
Glycans are sugar molecules found on the surface of proteins and are one of the major building blocks of life.
Identifying bisected N-acetylglucosamine can give doctors a pathway toward spotting individuals with a higher risk of Alzheimer’s. In fact, the study could open a way for a simple screening procedure capable of predicting the onset of Alzheimer’s 10 years in advance.
At the onset of Alzheimer’s, neurons in the brain die. Ensuring that treatment begins early when not many neurons have died is crucial to reversing Alzheimer’s.
In the study, researchers measured the blood glycan levels of participants. They found that individuals with matching levels of glycans and tau were more than twice as likely to develop Alzheimer’s-type dementia.
“We demonstrate in our study that blood levels of glycans are altered early during the development of the disease,” said Robin Zhou, first author of the study as well as a medical student and affiliated researcher at the Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS) at Karolinska Institutet, according to an April 12 press release.
“This could mean that we’ll be able to predict the risk of Alzheimer’s disease with only a blood test and a memory test.”
A reader sent me this TikTok. It’s a ‘day in the life’ of a Frontier airline pilot. People make videos like this all the time, especially when they have cool or interesting professions.
The part that got my attention was at the end. The pilot was flying back to Orlando and commented they had three medical emergencies on board. Which is unusual.
“This flight was actually pretty rough. We had three medical emergencies.”
Down in the comments, people were surprised. The pilot clarified it wasn’t “pretty rough” because of the weather, due to turbulence or anything like that. It was the three medical emergencies onboard that was unusual. He had never experienced this before, it “was a first for me.”
Unfortunately, the pilot did not comment as to what the medical emergencies were.
Multiple times a day there seems to be a new ‘medical emergency’ onboard a commercial aircraft. Some make the news — most do not. If you do a simple search on Twitter for “medical emergency onboard” you’ll see multiple (per day) tweets of people reporting medical emergencies on their flights. (I’ll include some at the end)
I’d love to see if the amount of medical diversions is up compared to pre-pandemic levels. I tried to see if the FAA or DOT had these statistics public — they do not. They make diversion data available but do not break it down. I was told you can FOIA the information. If anyone has any information on that please do let me know.
They kept statistics on passengers who didn’t wear masks. I want to see the medical diversion statistics — I bet they are up. Thoughts?
Too late! Kid Rock had the right approach for your beers! America is not a transsexual transgender nation, no matter how much you try to make it seem so; stop the filth; men are men, women are women
Several trans women – biological men identifying as female – were allowed to serve their sentences in women’s prisons, so where is outrage by the feminists, by women? Posie Parker’s fight for women!
This madness is real madness! Courtesy the nut ball Sturgeon! This transgender crap, this is utter filth IMO and must be stopped. This assault on our children and the attacks on REAL women. Women are under attack and if this is not stopped, will now have 3rd place in society behind actual biological men and men with penises who pretend to be women, these perverted rapist men, who are IMO possible pedophiles.
Which Country is More Tyrannical? China or the U.S.? The Myth of China’s “Social Credit Score” System
April 17, 2023 5:36 pm
With the evidence growing every day that the U.S. is about to start a second military operation against China over Taiwan, in addition to the one that is already swallowing $billions of U.S. resources in Ukraine, and with U.S. politicians publicly stating that sending America’s sons and daughters to die in battle for Taiwan to fight against China is an option they are considering, I think it is time to step back and critically look at the current state of affairs between China and the U.S. But to take a critical view and make an honest evaluation of China’s perceived threat to the U.S., we have to first admit that the western media, and especially the corporate media in the U.S., is primarily a propaganda machine that is totally untrustworthy in determining truth, and look at other perspectives as well, before we spend $billions more on another war, and potentially lose American lives over a conflict with Taiwan. I have no intention here of writing an article that supports China, which I know ahead of time is exactly what some people are going to accuse me of, but in evaluating the current world situation here in 2023, I think we as Americans have to honestly ask ourselves: which country today is more tyrannical and spies more on their own citizens: The U.S. or China?
Harms of Mask-Wearing Misdiagnosed As “Long Covid,” New Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review Indicates
April 17, 2023 9:41 pm
A newly published meta-analysis and systematic review on mask-wearing confirms what commonsense dictates, namely, they do significant harm by interfering with normal human breathing (O2 and CO2 gas exchange), and even more astounding, may be causing symptoms that are being misidentified as “Long Covid.”
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0970 UP.0045
USA/ YEN 133.94 DOWN 0.515 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2435 UP 0.0062
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3379 DOWN .0015 (CDN DOLLAR UP 15 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.72 PTS OR 0.23%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 131.94 PTS OR 0.63%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .27% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 131.94 PTS OR 0.63 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.72 PTS OR 0.23%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.27%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 144.05 PTS OR 0.51%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2003.50
silver:$25.10
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 101.42 DOWN 38 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP.(6.8759)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.8823
TURKISH LIRA: 19.41 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.470…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.579% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.789 DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.212% UP 3 in basis points.
USA dollar index, 101.54 DOWN .26 in basis points ON THE DAY/1.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 29.83 points or .38%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 93.14 PTS OR .58%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 35.45 PTS OR 0.47%
Spain IBEX UP 35.30 PTS OR .41%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 199.29 PTS OR 0.62%
WTI Oil price 81.25 12: EST
Brent Oil: 85.15. 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// REMAINS AT: 81.49/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 9//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4730 UP 0
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.746 UP 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0972 UP 0.0047 OR 47 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2429 UP 0056 or 56 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.7815% UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.08 DOWN 0.384 //YEN UP 38 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3393 DOWN .0001 CDN dollar, UP 1 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.88
Brent OIL: 84.66
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 3.579%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 3.792%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 4.216%
USA dollar index: 101.78 UP 54 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.40
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.45 DOWN 0 AND 5/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 10.65 PTS OR 0.03%
NASDAQ 100 UP 4.08 PTS OR 0.03%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.81 DOWN 0.14 PTS (0.83)%
GLD: $186.25 UP 0.72 OR 0.39%
SLV/ $23.02 UP 0.13 OR 0.56%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
US Sovereign Risk Nears Record High; Yield Curve Screams Recession As VIXtermination Continues
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Today was about the ‘good’ China data (GDP better than expected, helped by domestic demand), the ‘bad’ US data (building permits – implicitly forward-looking – much worse than expected), and the ugly (hawkish-ish Fed head Bostik – one more hike and hold for long time, no hint of cuts at all; and St. Louis Fed’s Bullard reiterated his call for higher U.S. interest rates to combat inflation, saying he’s not worried about a banking crisis and doesn’t see a recession taking place anytime soon).
But the big one was the sound & fury beginning to build around the debt ceiling debacle with the T-Bill curve getting a bit wild…
Source: Bloomberg
And the US Sovereign credit risk spread hovering right at record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Given all that VIX tumbled to a 16 handle making fresh lows since Jan ’22…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s10s) flattened dramatically…
Source: Bloomberg
And stocks pumped and dumped, Small Caps lagged on the day (but are still best from Friday. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all closed unchanged-ish…
Nasdaq is lagging on the week while Small Caps lead…
Breadth remains irrelevant…
Source: Bloomberg
0DTE put and call traders battled against like yesterday, but unlike yesterday’s late-day, today’s covering left stocks unmoved…
Overall, US Treasuries were mixed today with the short-end underperforming (2Y +1.5bps, 30Y -2.5bps)
Source: Bloomberg
The odds of a 25bps hike in May held their post-SVB highs at around 88%…
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar drifted lower
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin bounced back above $30,000 today after yesterday’s selloff…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold managed small gains today, after dipping down towards $2000…
Having found support at $80, WTI bounced back to end the day unchanged ahead of tonight’s API data…
Finally, the NY Fed recession probability model is flashing red…
…and it has never given a false signal at this level.
END
.i b Morning trading:
Early morning trading:
II) USA DATA//
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
This is important: you cannot fight the curve. The rate curve is saying that there is little upside to another Fed rate hike, along raising the spot rates. Everything else inverted.
(zerohedge)
“You Can’t Fight The Curve”: Rates Curve Is Saying There’s Little Upside To Another Fed Hike
TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 06:30 AM
By Simon White, Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst
The market is anticipating one more hike from the Fed, but the short-term interest rates curve intimates there are rapidly diminishing benefits to higher rates, while their adverse costs continue to rise.
Barring the unexpected, it looks as if the Fed will raise rates 25 bps at its May meeting. However, the battle the Fed has fought with the curve has reached the point where raising rates again will have a negligible additional impact on quelling inflation, while the costs could still have an undesired negative impact.
The fed funds curve is now almost completely negatively inverted. What this means is that one more hike will be minimally transmitted along the curve out to longer maturities where it would be able have a greater impact on constraining inflation.
Indeed, this is the first time that the very front of the fed funds curve has been inverted in the run up to the last hike. Thus each previous tightening cycle the Fed’s last hike has had more ex ante demonstrable benefits.
Given the shape of the curve, and the stubbornness of the pricing in of a “Fed pivot,” another hike would raise only the spot rate. The size of the pivot would probably deepen as the market assumed that the economic harm from higher rates would need to be addressed by greater cuts. Of course, if the Fed communicated the hiking cycle had a lot more to go, the curve would capitulate, but this is highly unlikely given we are teetering on the edge of a recession.
This has been the story all cycle. The Fed’s hawkishness was met by a higher expected peak rate, but that peak was brought forward, and the subsequent pivot made deeper. The market signally ignored the Fed’s evangelism for “higher for longer.”
Raising rates will increase the amount the Fed pays on reserve balances and on the RRP. This is great for larger banks who have a surfeit of reserves; it’s also good for money market funds and their clients (ZH: this is precisely what we have been warning about since last July).
But it means more stress for smaller banks who are not flush with reserves, some of which are still paying through the Fed’s target range for them. It will also at the margin further stress the hold-to-maturity portfolios of many, again smaller, banks. Moreover, it keeps pressure on rising interest-rate costs for the government.
Overall, if the next Fed hike was a trade for the central bank, it looks like one with poor risk-reward.
end
This is good: Elon Musk confirms development of a non woke Artificial intelligence BOT called trth GPT to rival Microsoft and Google.
(zerohedge)
Elon Musk Confirms Development Of Non-Woke AI Bot “TruthGPT” To Rival Microsoft And Google
TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 07:45 AM
In an interview with Fox News host Tucker Carlson on Monday evening, Elon Musk discussed the potential threats artificial intelligence poses to humanity. He expressed concerns over AI chatbots being developed with liberal bias and shared plans to create a non-woke chatbot.
Musk was an early donor of OpenAI’s chatbot ChatGPT and expressed concerns over the direction of AI development. He told Carlson that large-language models were being trained to be “politically correct.”
“I’m going to start something which I call TruthGPT,” Musk said, “or a maximum truth-seeking AI that tries to understand the nature of the universe.”
Musk also advocated for the regulation of AI. He said, “AI is more dangerous than, say, mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production,” adding, “It has the potential of civilizational destruction.”
In February, Musk tweeted, “What we need is TruthGPT.”
Musk told Carlson that Google’s Larry Page once told him about plans to build a “digital god.”
Last month, Musk created a new AI company called X.AI Corp, according to the state of Nevada filings. In the same month, he signed an open letter, along with hundreds of other tech experts, urging for an immediate pause of any new chatbots from OpenAI.
Musk has rolled Twitter into X as his plans to create a so-called “everything app” could soon be a reality. This latest revelation comes after reports of Musk purchasing 1000s of GPUs (critical infrastructure for AI development).
Musk also told Carlson about halving the valuation of Twitter since his takeover last year:
“We just revalued the company at less than half the acquisition price.”
Musk took Twitter private in a $44 billion deal. The Information recently said the billionaire offered employees new equity grants at around a $20 billion valuation.
end
Probably the correct thing to do:
(zerohedge)
US Should ‘Immediately’ Cut Off Flow Of American Capital To Chinese AI Firms, Rep. Gallagher Says
Gallagher, a U.S. Marine combat veteran, who has been out front in publicizing and pushing legislation to nullify the threat China and its ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) pose to America, is asking for this financial pipeline to be shut down as some of the biggest and most powerful American venture capital (VC) firms, either directly or indirectly, are making significant investments in Chinese AI enterprises.
“In recent months, we have seen revolutionary advances in artificial intelligence in America, but we are still neck and neck with the Chinese Communist Party when it comes to this critical technology, which could determine geopolitical dominance in the 21st century,” said Gallagher in a statement he sent to The Epoch Times.
“While serious questions remain about the right guardrails to put in place around AI in America, we know that the CCP will use this technology to further repress their own citizens and export their model of techno-totalitarian control around the world. The most obvious next step is to immediately cut off the flow of American capital to Chinese AI companies.”
Prominent American-based VC firms with global reach and that are funding companies in the Chinese AI sector include Tiger Global Management, Silver Lake, and IDG Capital. Sequoia Capital China, an affiliate of Sequoia Capital headquartered in Silicon Valley, backs Chinese AI companies. Money originating in America helps fund the Chinese VCs, Qiming Venture Partner and Matrix Partners China, that hold stakes in the China AI industry.
Referring to Sequoia Capital, Gallagher said: “Surely Sequoia can find other ways to make money than financing freedom’s end.”
The Threat of the CCP and AI
Members of Congress, from both parties, are sounding the alarm on the danger of the United States funding AI development in a country ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), a growing adversary to the United States, and which is acting increasingly menacingly to its neighbors in the Pacific.
Is this the beginning? Brookfield defaults on $161 million in debt for DC office buildings after defaulting on two LA buildings
(zero hedge)
Dominos Falling? Brookfield Defaults On $161 Debt For DC Office Buildings
TUESDAY, APR 18, 2023 – 09:45 AM
With recent stress in the regional banking sector, sentiment in US commercial real estate (CRE) – and especially the office sector – has turned negative as investors prepare for potential spillover effects (with JPM, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs all joining the gloom parade), especially as high-profile defaults continue to make headlines as borrowers face higher debt service costs and refinancing becomes much harder ahead of a $400 billion CRE debt maturities this year alone.
The latest headline fueling concerns about a potential CRE crisis involves a Brookfield Corp. fund defaulting on a $161.4 million mortgage for twelve office buildings in Washington, DC.
According to Bloomberg, the loan was transferred to a special servicer working with “the borrower to execute a pre-negotiation agreement and to determine the path forward.”
Real estate data firm Green Street said DC office space values had slid 36% through March compared with a year ago due to rising vacancies amid the rise of remote and hybrid work post-Covid.
The gold-standard measure of office occupancy trends is still the card-swipe data provided by Kastle Systems. The average office occupancy across Washington, DC, is only 43% and has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
Brookfield has also defaulted on debt tied to two Los Angeles buildings, the Gas Company Tower and the 777 Tower.
A spokesperson from the company blamed the pandemic for its CRE challenges.
“While the pandemic has posed challenges to traditional office in some parts of the US market, this represents a very small percentage of our portfolio.”
Brookfield could potentially be the first in a series of companies defaulting on their office space loans. We’ve pointed out that the state of the CRE market is in dire shape as delinquency rates across property types, particularly offices, are rising. The lending environment is getting tougher ahead of $400 billion in CRE debt maturities this year.
Meanwhile, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (and other regional banks) has put a magnifying glass on regional banks, and their CRE loan books remain a significant concern. As shown below, JPM’s data as of February 2023, regional banks account for a staggering 70% of total CRE loans outstanding, excluding multifamily, farmland, and construction loans.
This will cause an acute credit crunch in secondary/tertiary CRE markets.
And then there’s Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, who recently said, “You know what commercial real estate is, it’s a boa constrictor tightly wrapped around the economy, suffocating growth for the next 2 years.”
Bloomberg pointed out about a “dozen buildings in the Brookfield portfolio, occupancy rates averaged 52% in 2022, down from 79% in 2018 when the debt was underwritten.”
The onset of a CRE crisis in the office sector will likely spark significant issues for regional banks and the Fed.
In other words, with the commercial real estate bubble bursting, we are likely to enter three years with low growth, similar to what we saw after the housing bubble burst in 2008. Put differently, once the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, interest rates will likely stay low for several years, and QE is likely to come back in 2024.
Will Brookfield be the first of many to default on office building loans this year?
end
Dave’s Bridal Corp left at the alter as they file for its second bankruptcy in 5 years, laying off 9200 workers
(zerohedge)
David’s Bridal Files For Second Bankruptcy In 5 Years, To Lay Off 9,200 Workers
MONDAY, APR 17, 2023 – 10:30 PM
Bridal retailer David’s Bridal is going to be laying off more than 9,200 workers nationwide but plans on staying open after filing for bankruptcy for the second time in just five years.
As the chain gets ready to deal with a busy prom and wedding season, a notification of the layoffs was filed with the Department of Labor in Pennsylvania, according to NJ.com.
Layoffs started in Pennsylvania on Friday and its unclear when additional, out of state layoffs would take place, the report notes. The company currently has 300 stores across the United States.
“David’s Bridal has commenced a financial restructuring process to facilitate a potential sale of our company,” the company said in a statement. It is reportedly trying to sell itself, but stores should continue to take orders.
Nationwide, the Conshokocken, Pennsylvania-based chain has over 11,000 employees. Previously, it filed for bankruptcy in 2018 and also operated normally through the process.
Recall, days ago we noted that small businesses were filing for bankruptcy at a record pace, even surpassing the Covid crash:
The note from UBS Evidence Lab shows private bankruptcy filings in 2023 have exceeded the highest point recorded during the early stages of the COVID pandemic by a considerable amount. The four-week moving average for private filings in late February was 73 percent higher than in June 2020.
“[We] believe one of the more underappreciated signs of distress in U.S. corporate credit is already emanating from the small- and mid-size enterprises sector,” Matthew Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS, wrote in a recently published research note. “[The] smallest of firms [are] facing the most severe pressure from rising rates, persistent inflation and slowing growth.”
Industries hit hardest by the wave of bankruptcies include real estate, health care, chemicals, and retail outlets, according to the Swiss Bank’s report.
— Adam Townsend (@adamscrabble) April 16, 2023
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
LikeLike
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
LikeLike