MAY 9/ALL PRECIOUS METALS HAVE A GREAT DAY TODAY: GOLD CLOSED UP $9.70 TO $2035.50, SILVER WAS UP 7 CENTS TO $25.64 AFTER BEING DOWN ALL DAY//PLATINUM WAS UP $29.00 TO $1108.25//PALLADIUM WAS UP $14.70 TO $1570.20//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//VACCINE DEATHS AMONG YOUNG CHILDREN//DEBT CEILING MEETING IS TODAY BETWEEN BIDEN AND MCCARTHY//CRE CONTAGION SPREADS TO SWEDEN WITH ITS LARGEST REAL ESTATE CONGLOMERATE SHREDDED TO PIECES AS ITS BONDS GO TO JUNK AND ITS DIVIDEND SUSPENDED//BIDEN AGAIN DELAYS FILLING UP HIS SPR//TROUBLE IN PAKISTAN AS OPPOSITION LEADER KHAN ARRESTED AND THAT COULD LEAD TO CIVIL WAR IN THAT COUNTRY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 17 323 C HSBC 149 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6 661 C JP MORGAN 93 737 C ADVANTAGE 1 4 905 C ADM 30
TOTAL: 150 150
JPMorgan stopped 93/150 contracts
FOR MAY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2023. CONTRACT: 150 NOTICES FOR 15000 OZ or 0.4665 TONNES
total notices so far: 5336 contracts for 533,600 oz (16.597 tonnes)
FOR MAY:
SILVER NOTICES: 88 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 440,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1951 for 9,755,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $9.70
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///A DEPOSIT OF 5.66 TONNES INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 937,65 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 7 CENTS AT THE SLV//
SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF OF 0.08 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 465.682 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 244 CONTRACTS TO 145,787 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS TINY SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.07 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.07). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 182 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 4.250MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 135CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 13.105 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 400,000 OZ(QUEUE JUMP RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING)+0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK// TOTAL 4.25MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH(RAISES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING):THUS TOTAL OF 17.300 MILLION OZ OF STANDING FOR DELIVERY V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –1 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 days, total 5942 contracts: OR 29.710 MILLION OZ . (848 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 29.710 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 29.710 MILLION OZ/INITIAL
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 244CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR $0.07 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 135 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 13.105 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 400,000 OZ (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) +// + 0.0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MONTH= 4.25 MILLION//NEW TOTALS 13.050 MILLION OZ + 4.25 MILLION = 17.300 MILLION OZ// .. WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF379 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 88 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 440,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5209 CONTRACTS TO 515,785 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed 989 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 5209 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $8.70 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY. AT 3.5085 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS 300 OZ QUEUE. JUMP :(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $8.70 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5432 OI CONTRACTS (16.895 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 223 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 515,785
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5432 CONTRACTS WITH 5209 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 223 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5,432CONTRACTS OR 16.895TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (223 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (5209 //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 5432 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.5085 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 300 OZ // NEW STANDING: 16.6718 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 19,854 CONTRACTS OR 1,985,400 OZ OR 61.75 TONNES IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2836 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 61.75 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 61.75/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.73% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY: 61.75 TONNES (HEADING FOR ANOTHER SMALLER MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 244 CONTRACTS OI TO 145,787 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 135 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 135 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 135 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI RISE OF 244CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 135OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 379 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 1.895 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.07 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37,33 PTS OR 0.40% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 429,45 POINTS OR 2.12% /The Nikkei closed UP 292.94 OR 1.01% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.21 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.9215 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9253 /Oil DOWN TO 72.55 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 76.35 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5209 CONTRACTS UP TO 515,785 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.70 ON MONDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A TINY SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 223 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 223 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 223 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5,432 CONTRACTS IN THAT 223LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5209COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.70. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAY (16.6718) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 16.6718 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $8.70) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5432 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 16.895PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY. (3.5085 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 300 oz (0.00933 TONNES)//NEW STANDING 16.6718 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $8.70
WE HAD –REMOVED 989 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5432 CONTRACTS OR 543,200 OZ OR 16.895 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5336 notices 533,600 OZ 16.597 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 1
i)Into Manfra: 17,779.503 oz
(553 kilobars)
total deposits: 17,779.503 oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Manfra
14,371.497 (447 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 14,371.497 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.
For the front month of MAY we have an oi of 174 contracts having LOST 39 contracts. We had 42 contracts filed
on MONDAY, so we gained 3 contracts or an additional 300 oz (0.00933 tonnes) will stand for gold in this non active delivery month of May.
June LOST 17,486 contracts DOWN to 341,145 contracts.
July added 50 contracts to stand at 1404 contracts.
AUGUST GAINED 22,500 contracts up to 123,105 contracts
We had 150 contracts filed for today representing 15000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 150 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 93 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5,336 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY 174 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 150 x 100 oz per contract equals 536,000 OZ OR 16.6718 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON- active month of May.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAYcontract month: No of notices filed so far (5,186 x 100 oz) 174 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (150)x 100 oz} which equals 536,000 oz standing OR 16.6718 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 16.6718 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
total pledged gold: 1,666,085.702 OZ 51.822 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,540,551.12 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,400,059,885 (385,69 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,140,501.236 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,733,974 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 333.87 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
MAY 9//2023// THE MAY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
332,476,746 oz
Delaware HSBC Loomis
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,037,480.275 oz CNT Delaware Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
88 CONTRACT(S) (440,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
659 contracts (3,295,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1951 Contracts (9,755,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 3 deposits into the customer account
i) into CNT: 425,678.100 oz
ii) out of Delaware 10,951.525 oz
iii) Out of Loomis: 600,850.600 oz
Total deposits: 1,037,480.275 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139,607 million oz/271.242 million =51.57% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals 3
i) Out of Delaware: 999.300 oz
ii) Out of HSBC: 104,679.000 oz
iii) Out of Loomis: 226,798.446 oz
Total withdrawals; 322,476.746 oz
adjustments:
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.624 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 271.242 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2023 OI: 747 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 47 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 33 CONTRACTS FILED
ON MONDAY, SO WE FINALLY GAINED 80 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 400,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS VERY
ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
JUNE HAD A 3 CONTRACT GAIN TO 936
JULY HAD A 62 CONTRACT GAIN TO 123,021 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 88 for 440,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 46,396 poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 38,598 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1951 x 5,000 oz = 9,755,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(747) and the number of notices served upon today 88 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY/2023 contract month: 1951 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of May (747) – number of notices served upon today (88 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates to 13.050 million oz + THE CRIMINAL 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 4.250//NEW TOTAL 17.300 MILLION OZ//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 9/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.64 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 431.77 TONNES
MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AS DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $19.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES
APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES
APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES
APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES
APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91
APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23
MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES
MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES
MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 931.77 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A TINY DEPOSIT OF .08 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.682 MILLION OZ//
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.602 MILLION OZ//
MAY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.876 MILLION OZ//
MAY 4/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .174 MILLION OZ INTO SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.174 MILLION OZ//
MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.070 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ
APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412
MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ
MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ
MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
There’s a debate in the comments section here about whether Americans have gotten suddenly dumber, leading them to elect populist presidents and refuse vaccines. I started to weigh in but quickly realized that the story is broader and deeper than just vaccines and Donald Trump.
So here’s some context:
Starting in the 1960s, the US embraced a 3,000-year-old idea from Plato’s Republic, in which the ideal government would be run by the best possible person — a “philosopher king” who was both wise and good. In modern terms, an expert.
Starting with John Kennedy’s celebration of artistic and scientific excellence in the White House and continuing through the Vietnam War’s “best and brightest” leadership, we invented what later came to be called the “Ph.D. standard” in which people with advanced degrees from prestigious schools and records of success in a given field were put in charge of big parts of the government and economy — on the assumption that they were smart enough to actively manage things like financial markets and wars.
They failed miserably, screwing up everything they touched and leaving us with a corrupt, indebted world one itchy trigger finger away from nuclear armageddon. Or, seen through a different lens, they efficiently served their (Ivy League educated, highly credentialed) class by enriching the 99% while impoverishing what was once the middle class.
Specifically:
Monetary policy. Prior to 1971, the world was on a version of the gold standard that, without getting bogged down in the details, limited the amount of currency countries could create, thereby restraining governments’ more idiotically expensive impulses.
Then governments decided they could do a better job of managing their currencies than could an inert, arbitrary, barbarous rock. So they broke the link with gold and handed monetary policy to a generation of economists who, being brilliant and accomplished, would manage the world’s finances sagaciously, raising and lowering interest rates and the money supply just enough to produce steady non-inflationary growth, basically forever.
The result? The dollar’s purchasing power plunged while debt at every level of every major country soared. The amplitude of booms and busts increased to the point where the next bust might be fatal.
The Federal Reserve’s economists couldn’t have done worse if they were blind monkeys pulling random levers to get treats. Or, looking through that other lens, they served their class brilliantly by using artificially-low interest rates and various other forms of corruption to enrich banks and corporations, such that Wall Street now owns the world and the average person can’t afford to buy a house. Either way, they emphatically did not achieve the promised high-growth, low-inflation Nirvana.
Globalization. In the1980s and 1990s, we handed off trade policy to a different group of economists and other specialists who cut free trade deals with every country in sight, apparently unaware that American workers couldn’t compete with their $1-an-hour Chinese counterparts. The experts promised that free trade would benefit everyone by raising efficiency and lowering prices. What it actually did was crush millions of formerly unionized workers while enriching the multinationals that moved US factories to China for the (highly profitable) cheap labor.
The past two decades have seen a collapse in US living standards, political turmoil as a growing number of voters choose candidates who promise to tear the old system out by the roots, and the implosion of the old globalized world before anything concrete evolves to replace it. Expect a decade of inflation and supply chain chaos as the work of the globalist trade experts is swept away.
War and foreign policy. Instead of learning from the failure of the Vietnam War, U.S. foreign policy has become even more erratic and corrupt as each new generation of experts has blundered around the world (especially the Middle East) breaking things and killing innocents, making exponentially more enemies, and lying about all kindsof war crimes and management abuses.
Now the Pentagon/State Department Russia/China experts have decided that it’s time for a two-front World War III against those other two nuclear powers. Who gains from this? No one, except the arms makers and their affiliated politicians.
Public health. Three short years ago most Americans considered the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the rest of the public health establishment to be an exception to the growing sense that most experts were incompetent and/or corrupt.
But during the pandemic, the health establishment turned out to be if anything worse than the Fed’s economists or the Pentagon’s chicken hawks. They locked down schools unnecessarily, destroyed thousands of small businesses, and coerced young people into taking experimental vaccines that later turned out to be unnecessary. They contradicted each other in public and apparently lied about things like gain-of-function research and natural immunity. Some typical headlines:
Now people who once thought doctors could be trusted and vaccines were generally a good thing are questioning those beliefs. And until convinced otherwise, they’re not vaccinating their kids. Is that a public health problem? Maybe, but it’s also completely understandable after two years of pandemic chaos.
The (philosopher) king is dying
We can debate whether the people running America’s big systems are incompetent morons or brilliant soldiers in the war for super-rich supremacy. But either way, they’re not to be trusted.
It took five decades, thousands of lives, and trillions of dollars, but the idea of the philosopher king is finally dying. Americans did not get dumber. They learned from their experience and adjusted their attitudes accordingly. They’re buying gold because they don’t trust the Fed. They’re planting gardens because they don’t trust Big Food. They’re researching vaccines and accepting only those with proven (not experimental or fictitious) safety and efficacy. They’re voting for candidates who promise to control immigration, bring back factory jobs, avoid foreign wars, and eliminate medical coercion.
If only our experts had the same good sense and flexibility.
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
(Ed Steer/GATA)
Ed Steer: Six consecutive withdrawals from SLV
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-05-09 03:37Section: Daily Dispatches
3:35p SGT Tuesday, May 9, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
The weekend edition of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest, published by GATA board member Ed Steer, is headlined “Six Consecutive Withdrawals from SLV” and it’s posted in the clear at SilverSeek here:
The systemic threats to the U.S. financial system were not remedied when Congress passed the watered-down Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation in 2010. While that has been evident with each Federal Reserve bailout of the mega banks and their derivative counterparties, the threat has now gained increased urgency for Congress to confront as a result of a new academic study. A team of four highly-credentialed academics at four separate universities present compelling evidence that one of the four largest U.S. banks, with “assets above $1 trillion,” could be at risk of a bank run.
The study is titled: “Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs?” Its authors are Erica Jiang, Assistant Professor of Finance and Business Economics at USC Marshall School of Business; Gregor Matvos, Chair in Finance at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, and Research Associate in the Corporate Finance group at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Tomasz Piskorski, Professor of Real Estate in the Finance Division at Columbia Business School and Research Associate at NBER; and Amit Seru, Professor of Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business, a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and Research Associate at NBER.
The study focuses on unrealized losses on assets on the books of U.S. banks in a category called “held to maturity,” which under current accounting rules does not have to be marked to market, as well as unrealized losses on debt securities that also have not been marked to market, unless they are sold, for example, to raise cash to pay fleeing depositors. The professors find that “The U.S. banking system’s market value of those assets is $2.2 trillion lower than suggested by their book value of assets accounting for loan portfolios held to maturity.”
They then couple that finding with the threat posed to banks that hold large quantities of uninsured deposits – sums exceeding the federal deposit insurance cap of $250,000 per depositor, per bank. They then conduct various scenarios to see how different categories of banks would perform.
The most disturbing scenario is the following, which raises the issue of a bank with “assets above $1 trillion” potentially experiencing a bank run. (There are only four U.S. chartered banks that have assets above $1 trillion. According to the December 31, 2022 data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, those are: JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. with assets of $3.2 trillion; Bank of America N.A. with $2.4 trillion in assets; Citigroup’s Citibank N.A. with assets of $1.77 trillion; and Wells Fargo Bank N.A. with $1.71 trillion in assets.)
The scenario is explained as follows by the authors:
“To further assess the vulnerability of the US banking system to uninsured depositors run, we plot the 10 largest banks at the risk of a run, which we define as a negative insured deposit coverage ratio if all uninsured depositors run…Because of the caveats in our analysis as well as the potential of exacerbating their situation, we anonymize their names, but we also plot SVB [Silicon Valley Bank which failed on March 10] as comparison. We plot their mark-to-market asset losses (Y axis) against their uninsured deposits as a share of marked to market assets. Some of these banks have low uninsured deposits, but large losses, but the majority of these banks have over 50% of their assets funding with uninsured deposits. SVB stands out towards the top right corner, with both large losses, as well as large uninsured deposits funding. As Figure 5 shows [see below], the risk of run does not only apply to smaller banks. Out of the 10 largest insolvent banks, 1 has assets above $1 Trillion, 3 have assets between $200 Billion and $1 Trillion, 3 have assets between $100 Billion and $200 Billion and the remaining 3 have assets between $50 Billion and $100 Billion.”
We do not know which of the four mega banks the authors are referring to. We asked via email if they would identify the bank but they declined. Short sellers will, undoubtedly, drill down in the regulatory data filed by the four banks to determine the name of the bank in the study, so federal regulators and Congress need to move this issue immediately to the top of their banking crisis priority list.
Just 15 years ago, Citigroup/Citibank received the largest bailouts in U.S. banking history during and after the financial crisis of 2008. Its stock traded at 99 cents in early 2009. Sheila Bair, then the Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), said this about Citigroup in her book, Bull by the Horns:
“By November, the supposedly solvent Citi was back on the ropes, in need of another government handout. The market didn’t buy the OCC’s and NY Fed’s strategy of making it look as though Citi was as healthy as the other commercial banks. Citi had not had a profitable quarter since the second quarter of 2007. Its losses were not attributable to uncontrollable ‘market conditions’; they were attributable to weak management, high levels of leverage, and excessive risk taking. It had major losses driven by their exposures to a virtual hit list of high-risk lending; subprime mortgages, ‘Alt-A’ mortgages, ‘designer’ credit cards, leveraged loans, and poorly underwritten commercial real estate. It had loaded up on exotic CDOs and auction-rate securities. It was taking losses on credit default swaps entered into with weak counterparties, and it had relied on unstable volatile funding – a lot of short-term loans and foreign deposits. If you wanted to make a definitive list of all the bad practices that had led to the crisis, all you had to do was look at Citi’s financial strategies…What’s more, virtually no meaningful supervisory measures had been taken against the bank by either the OCC or the NY Fed…Instead, the OCC and the NY Fed stood by as that sick bank continued to pay major dividends and pretended that it was healthy.”
Until Congress gets serious about breaking up these too-big-to-fail mega banks and restoring the banking system protections of the Glass-Steagall Act, which were repealed in 1999, every American is at risk of an unstable financial system.
Editor’s Note: The third paragraph has been updated to indicate that debt securities on the books of the banks were also included in the study.
END
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
end
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
Disgraced FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Tries To Dismiss Most Criminal Charges
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 12:05 PM
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried asked a federal court in Manhattan Monday to dismiss 10 out of 13 criminal charges against him linked to the collapse of the failed crypto exchange. SBF has pleaded not guilty to fraud, conspiracy, campaign finance law violations and money laundering.
In a Monday filing, SBF’s lawyers argued that the US government had issued the original indictment against their client on Dec. 9 in a “classic rush to judgement” less than a month after the firm’s bankruptcy, and that several of the charges failed to properly state a crime.
“Rather than wait for traditional civil and regulatory processes following their ordinary course to address the situation, the government jumped in with both feet, improperly seeking to turn these civil and regulatory issues into federal crimes,” his lawyers wrote.
According to the letter, a campaign finance charge must be dismissed because it wasn’t included in the surrender warrant signed by the Bahamian government for his extradition.
SBF’s lawyers also attack the DOJ for bringing new charges against their client that alleged criminal conduct far beyond the Original Indictment and which are improperly brought.”
“Even if they are considered, the charges should be dismissed as legally flawed,” they added.
After Mr. Bankman-Fried properly consented to a simplified extradition procedure, the Bahamian government agreed to release him to U.S. authorities and issued a warrant of surrender specifying that he be tried on seven of the eight counts in the Original Indictment––but not the count relating to alleged campaign finance violations. Despite this clear direction from the Bahamian government, the Government now seeks to have Mr. Bankman-Fried tried on that charge as well.
The other charges they are attempting to have dismissed include those related to the unlicensed transmitting of money, bribery and bank fraud.
“The market crash took down many of the major players in this sector, not just FTX,” wrote the attorneys, noting that the broad market rout in 2022 hit many other cryptocurrency exchanges.
SBF’s trial is set for Oct 2. His right-hand(job) woman, former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison and FTX co-founder Gary Wang both pleaded guilty in December to various federal wire fraud and conspiracy charges.
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS// MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9215
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9253
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.33 PTS OR 1.10%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 429.45 PTS OR 2.12%
2. Nikkei closed UP 292,94 PTS OR 1.01%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 100.87 EURO RISES TO 1.1049 UP 40 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.421 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 134.77 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.30***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.235*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.396…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.072
3j Gold at $2032.20 silver at: 25.52 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 0 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 77.81//
3m oil into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 134.77 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .421% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8915 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9791 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.486 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.802 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9763 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.52…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 7 BASIS PTS AT 3.844
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Slide As Small Bank Selling Returns
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 08:33 AM
US index futures retreated as the short squeeze that lifted distressed regional banks fizzled and went into reverse, dragging names such as PacWest as much as 20% lower in premarket trading, while the latest Chinese macro data spooked investors after imports dropped much more than expected; lastly investors braced for key US CPI data due tomorrow. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts slipped 0.4% on Tuesday as of 8:00 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, the dollar is edging higher, set for a second day of muted gains. Oil prices have lost the momentum of the past two sessions, falling back in today’s trading. Gold is set for its third day of gains. Iron ore dropped in the wake of data that showed China’s imports of the steel-making ingredient fell to a 10-month low in April. Copper also slides.
In premarket trading, PacWest shares tumbled as much as 16% in premarket trading Tuesday, set to decline after two days of gains, while other US regional banks were also lower. Lucid Group fell 9.1% in premarket trading after the EV maker’s revenue and expected production disappointed investors. PayPal dropped 4.3% after the payment company warned that its adjusted operating margin won’t grow as quickly as it had anticipated earlier. By contrast, Palantir jumped 19% in premarket after the software firm published a surprise profit and a strong forecast, as well as reporting solid demand for its upcoming artificial intelligence tool. Some other notable premarket movers:
Skyworks shares fall 9.5% in US premarket trading after the update from the wireless semiconductor company showed continued headwinds for the Android ecosystem, weighing on its margin guidance and overshadowing an otherwise in-line quarterly print.
Coherus Bio slid 15% in low-volume premarket trading after the biopharma firm’s quarterly results showed a revenue miss driven by weakness at its Udenyca product, with analysts split on the quality of the outlook for the biopharma. Shares were down 8.4% in extended trading Monday.
Premier’s announcement of a strategic review is not a major surprise, analysts say, given a stagnant share-price and trading performance in recent times. Private equity buyers are seen as the most likely suitors, according to Credit Suisse, while SVB Securities sees significant value in a breakup of the business. Premier shares climbed 7.2% in after-hours trading on the news.
Shockwave Medical shares topped expectations and showed growth remains strong for the medical-devices company, though its shares will be put under pressure from a report that talks on a potential takeover offer for the firm by Boston Scientific have broken down. The shares declined 4.6% in after- hours trading.
International Flavors & Fragrances’ first-quarter results are mixed, with sales slightly above expectations but guidance below for the group. Shares fell 1.5% in after-hours trading.
McKesson’s quarterly earnings were solid but the pharmaceuticals distributor’s guidance is the highlight of its update, coming in well ahead of expectations. Analysts flagged continued growth in key areas for the group and that its guidance indicates it is executing successfully on its strategy. Shares in the group rose around 4% in after-hours trading.
Sentiment was also hit by a report showing a drop in Chinese imports last month, raising concerns about the country’s ability to boost the global economy. Investors also weighed signs that the world’s central banks may need to do more to fight sticky inflation.
Focus is now shifting to the US consumer-prices data due on Wednesday to gauge the interest-rate path, according to Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC Markets in London. “The US labor market remains tight and there is still inflationary pressure within the underlying economy,” he said. “For all the expectation that last week’s Federal Reserve rate hike might be the last, the strength of the US economy might mean that there may be one left to come.”
Separately, investors are also tracking efforts in Washington to end a standoff over the US debt ceiling, with President Joe Biden due to sit down with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy Tuesday for their first meeting in three months as the two face pressure to forge a deal. As we discussed previously, this game of chicken is unlikely to be resolved without a market panic first.
“Whilst we expect a last-minute resolution to the US debt-ceiling melodrama, anxiety is now starting to creep into markets,” said John Leiper, chief investment officer at Titan Asset Management.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.6% with the consumer product and energy sectors also underperforming. Real estate stocks are leading the broader market lower in Europe as Swedish landlord SBB slumps after halting its dividend. Here are the biggest European movers:
SBB slumps as much as 13% to the lowest since April 2018, dragging the European real estate sector lower, after the Swedish landlord halted dividend payments and canceled a SEK2.6 billion rights issue
Fresenius SE shares gain as much as 7.4% on better-than-expected first quarter that Barclays says was boosted by its medicines and nutritions unit Kabi, as well as its separately listed dialysis unit
Grifols shares rise as much as 8.5%, the most since Feb. 16., with Jefferies saying the quarterly update from the Spanish blood-plasma firm beat on the top line and issued better margin guidance
Media stocks top all other Stoxx 600 sectors on Tuesday and buck weakness in the broader market, after Pearson said it’s working to embed generative AI technology across its product lineup
JD Sports shares rise as much as 3.2% after saying it’s in exclusive talks to buy French chain Courir for an enterprise value of €520m. Analysts say the deal fits with the company’s strategy
Banco BPM shares rise as much as 6%, with analysts saying the Italian lender’s quarterly results were strong, with the highlights being higher guidance and potentially greater shareholder returns
Amadeus shares rise as much as 1.7% with the travel IT services provider reported better-than-expected results across three main divisions as air traffic recovered across the globe
Marshalls slumps as much as 16% after the building materials group says trading this year has been weaker than expected. Analysts point to the weaker environment for housebuilding in 2023
Daimler Truck falls as much as 4.6% after 1Q results analysts say are consistent and in line with the pre-release last month, with the German truckmaker also confirming 2023 guidance
Evonik shares decline as much as 2.8% after it posted mixed results in 1Q. Analyst say the firm’s outlook will be a main focus after it said it now sees adjusted FY Ebitda “more likely” at the lower end
Victrex shares fall as much as 11%, hitting the lowest since April, as analysts said deteriorating volumes for the thermoplastics maker will put pressure on consensus estimates
JPMorgan strategists, who have been permabearish all year after cheering the 2022 collapse all year, are now calling for an end of European stock outperformance. Europe benefited from China’s reopening and a less-severe energy crisis than initially anticipated, but JPMorgan said these tailwinds are showing signs of fading, with economic surprises in the region now turning negative. After euro-zone stocks rose in the past seven months, investors “should be locking in these gains,” strategists led by Mislav Matejka wrote in a note on Tuesday.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged lower as sentiment soured on China’s weak import data, while a recent rally in the nation’s state-owned enterprises fizzled. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gave up earlier gains to fall as much as 0.2%, led lower by communication shares. Benchmarks in Hong Kong fell the most in two months, while Japanese shares outperformed the region as investors cheered latest corporate earnings. The Topix is approaching its highest level since August 1990. Chinese stocks slid in afternoon trading as a rally in state-owned firms reversed, dragging on the broader market. Meanwhile, fresh data showed imports slumped in April while export growth slowed, adding to pressures on an economic recovery that’s already been called into question.
“The imports miss could signal that Chinese household consumption still has a way to go,” said David Chao,global market strategist for Asia Pacific at Invesco Asset Management, adding that Chinese households are “not ready to pry open their purse strings to buy discretionary goods and products.” The reopening rally in China has stalled in recent months due to a lack of fresh catalysts. Still, market conditions are favorable for the country’s equities, said William Fong, head of Hong Kong China equities at Baring Asset Management Asia. “Recovering consumption and supportive government policies are driving improvement in Chinese corporate fundamentals.” Investors will be watching the US inflation data due Wednesday for more clues on the Federal Reserve’s next moves. A decline in the inflation reading and the recent banking turmoil have fueled expectations that the Fed will soon halt its monetary tightening or even begin cutting interest rates.
Japanese stocks rose as investors applauded results from major local firms and awaited key US inflation data. The Topix rose 1.3% to close at 2,097.55, while the Nikkei advanced 1% to 29,242.82. Steelmakers and trading houses were the biggest advancing industry groups after reports from companies including JFE and Sumitomo Corp. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 3.3%. Out of 2,160 stocks in the index, 1,720 rose and 360 fell, while 80 were unchanged. “US earnings and employment data were strong, and if monetary tightening continues, the dollar will strengthen and the yen will weaken, which is positive for Japanese equities.” said Tetsuo Seshimo, a portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management. “The market had low expectations for Japanese earnings, so the solid results should also be viewed positively.”
Stocks in India failed to hold initial gains and closed nearly flat, with banks among worst performers on profit-taking by investors. The S&P BSE Sensex was little changed at 61,761.33 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index was flat at 18,265.95. The gauges surged more than 1% each on Monday, their biggest rally since March and are trading close to their highest levels since mid-December. India VIX, a gauge of volatility, has risen for three straight sessions through Tuesday amid selling in some sectors including banks after some lenders reported higher provisions for the March quarter. Out of 28 companies in the Nifty 50 guage that have so far reported quarterly earnings, 15 have either met or beaten consensus earnings estimates, while 10 have trailed. Construction major L&T and generic drug maker Dr Reddy’s will be reporting earnings on Wednesday.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inches up 0.1%; weakness in most global share markets spur light demand for the haven currency. The Norwegian krone is the weakest of the G-10 currencies while the Japanese yen is the strongest. Traders are also weighing “the outlook for interest rates alongside debt ceiling talks,” Jeff Ng, a senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank in Singapore, wrote in a note. “We anticipate more FX moves against the US dollar to materialize” as the US releases CPI numbers Wednesday, which may indicate that inflation stayed sticky. Investors are also bracing for US CPI figures due on Wednesday, as an expected steadying or slowdown in prices could bolster the view that Fed rate rises have ended after last week’s hike; further evidence of this could weigh on the dollar, strategists say. “While the short-term outlook for the dollar remains neutral in our view, thanks to positioning skewed to the short-side and unstable risk sentiment, markets remain ready to price in more Fed rate cuts, so downside risks are non- negligible,” ING strategists write in a note
In rates, Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve, erasing some of Monday’s losses, as stock futures retreat from Monday’s highs. Treasury yields richer by 2bp to 3bp across the curve with spreads slightly steeper, although broadly within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels; 10-year yields around 3.485%, richer by 2bp on the day with bunds lagging by 1.5bp in the sector; the two-year Treasury yield slips 2bps to 3.98%, pulling back form 4.01% hit on Monday, its highest in a week. Sentiment weakened slightly during Asia session when Chinese import data showed a steep drop. Focal points of US session include 3-year note auction, with critical April CPI data ahead Wednesday. Treasury auctions cycle begins with $40b 3-year note sale at 1pm, followed by 10- and 30-year sales Wednesday and Thursday. WI 3-year yield at ~3.655% is 15.5bp richer than April’s result, which stopped on the screws. In Europe, Bunds are little changed while Gilts have dropped, pushing UK 10-year yields up 4bps to 3.83% ahead of the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.
In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI falling 0.8% to trade near $72.60. Spot gold adds 0.3% to around $2,027.
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged within sub-USD 300 parameters and holding just above the USD 27.5k mark.
Looking at the day ahead, in the US we will get NFIB small business optimism, which will dovetail nicely with the SLOOS data that was released yesterday. Additionally, there is France’s March trade balance. From Central Banks, market participants will hear from the Fed’s Williams and Jefferson, as well as the ECB’s Lane, Vasle and Rehn. Lastly, while we are in the back-nine of earnings season there will be interest in reports from Saudi Aramco, Airbnb, Nintendo, Mitsubishi, Apollo, Electronic Arts, Daimler, and Wynn Resorts today.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,137.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 464.49
MXAP down 0.2% to 162.34
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 517.13
Nikkei up 1.0% to 29,242.82
Topix up 1.3% to 2,097.55
Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 19,867.58
Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,357.67
Sensex down 0.1% to 61,688.29
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,264.08
Kospi down 0.1% to 2,510.06
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.31%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0977
Brent Futures down 1.2% to $76.07/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,023.51
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.16% to 101.54
Top overnight news
China exports rise 8.5% Y/Y in April, above the Street’s +8% forecast, while imports sink 7.9% (significantly worse than the -0.2% consensus forecast). BBG
UBS appointed Ulrich Koerner to its top management body, giving the CEO of Credit Suisse a key role in overseeing the combination of the two firms. The announcement was part of a broader management shuffle that also saw Todd Tuckner, a veteran UBS banker, take over as CFO from Sarah Youngwood, who only joined the bank last year. BBG
Sweden’s Riksbank announced a half percentage-point hike to 3.50% on April 26 and said it would probably tighten policy again, by a quarter point this time, in either June or September before the hiking cycle comes to an end. RTRS
Investors shouldn’t count on the ECB’s unprecedented bout of interest-rate increases ending in July, as the majority of economists currently predicts, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks. “I don’t think it is that clear yet,” the hawkish Latvian official told Bloomberg on Monday by phone. “We still have quite some ground to cover and further rate increases will be necessary to tame inflation.” BBG
Americans have low confidence in Biden, Powell and Yellen on the economy according to a new Gallup poll (Biden’s economic polling numbers are nearly as low as they were for George W Bush during the heart of the ’08 financial crisis). CNN
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is reaching out to U.S. business and financial leaders to explain the “catastrophic” impact a U.S. default on its debt would have on the U.S. and global economies. RTRS
US lenders warned that commercial property is ‘next shoe to drop’. Executives and investors fret about impact of rising rates and empty buildings on $5.6tn market. FT
Fed steps up scrutiny of CRE risks at banks (“the Federal Reserve has increased monitoring of the performance of CRE loans and expanded examination procedures for banks with significant CRE concentration risk”). Fed
AMZN is offering certain Prime customers cash payments if they pick up their packages at various locations (including Whole Foods) instead of having them delivered to their home. RTRS
Stocks and bonds moved in lockstep for much of 2022, but that relationship has flipped this year. The two asset classes now display the largest negative correlation since August 2020…(WSJ)
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed following the indecisive performance from Wall St where the focus was on the Fed’s SLOOS which showed banks tightened credit terms and demand for loans declined, while the attention in the region shifted to earnings and data releases including mixed Chinese trade figures. ASX 200 was lower with early pressure seen across nearly all sectors and with the top-weighted financial industry choppy after earnings from Australia’s largest lender CBA which reported a slight increase in Q3 cash profit although NII was lower compared to the quarterly average in H1 and the Co. also noted that many customers are feeling the strain of higher interest rates and rising living costs. Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 29,000 status, with the index unfazed by weak household spending data as participants digested earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied after the latest Chinese trade figures which showed stronger-than-expected export growth but imports disappointed with a surprise contraction.
Top Asian News
EU Ambassador to China thinks the comment by EU’s Borrell suggesting that EU navies patrol the Taiwan Strait has been grossly exaggerated, while he also commented regarding China’s anti-espionage law and consultancy crackdown in which he stated that this is not good news and expressed doubts regarding the compatibility of this policy with the opening up of China’s economy.
Chinese embassy said China strongly condemns and firmly opposes Canada’s decision to expel the Chinese diplomat and has lodged a protest with the Canadian government. China also claimed that Canada ‘sabotaged’ relations and vowed ‘resolute countermeasures’. Subsequently, China said it will expel a Canadian diplomat as a countermeasure.
BoJ Governor Ueda said their scheduled review won’t have any pre-set idea in mind on specific monetary policy moves and said they will take necessary policy action at each meeting with an eye on financial and price developments even while conducting the review. Ueda also commented that if the price target is met in a sustainable manner, the BoJ will end YCC and then shrink its balance sheet, while he added they are seeing some bright signs including on inflation expectations which have heightened and remain at elevated levels.
Australian Budget: Government forecasts 2022/23 budget surplus of AUD 4.2bln (exp. AUD 4bln), 2023/24 budget deficit at AUD 13.9bln (0.5% of GDP), 2024/25 budget AUD 35.1bln (1.3% of GDP). Click here for more detail.
European bourses are softer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, as the region struggles to find a foothold in relatively quiet trade after a mixed APAC handover. Sectors are similarly softer with Real Estate lagging after soft Halifax data and SBB headwinds; individual movers dictated by earnings updates for Fresenius, Daimler Trucks & more. ES -0.4% dips with the region again lacking firm direction ahead of Fed speak and Biden’s debt ceiling meeting; NQ and RTY roughly in-fitting.
Top European News
ECB’s Kazaks says rate hiking may not be finished in July, via Bloomberg; bets on Spring 2024 ECB cuts are significantly premature. Doing too little remains the greater danger. Not impossible for the ECB to hike/pause in the scenario the Fed is cutting.
ECB’s Kazimir says based on current data, will need to keep raising rates for longer than anticipated; September projections are the earliest time to gauge the effectiveness of measures and see if inflation is heading to target.
Norges Bank Governor Bache says does not need additional policy tools, FX interventions to influence NOK are costly and not very efficient.
German Chancellor Schloz says the EU must reduce risks in China relations without cutting ties saying this is not decoupling, but smart de-risking is the way forward with China.
UK Barclaycard April consumer spending rose 4.3% Y/Y but was impacted by inflation squeeze on disposable incomes and higher food prices, according to Reuters.
FX
Buck finds its feet vs most majors bar the Yen as Treasury yields ease off Monday’s peaks and BoJ Governor Ueda notes higher Japanese inflation expectations.
DXY forms a firmer base around 101.500 and USD/JPY pivots 135.00 where 1bln option expiries roll off at the NY cut.
Aussie retreats as Chinese imports unexpectedly tumble and AUD/USD eyes support into 0.6750 from Monday’s high just over 0.6800.
Euro loses 1.1000+ status vs Dollar and Fib support against Pound as Cable retains underlying bid mostly above 1.2600.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9255 vs exp. 6.9251 (prev. 6.9158)
Turkey raises the wages of some civil servants by 45%, according to Turkish President Erdogan.
Fixed Income
Choppy trade in bonds, but Bunds piggy-back bounce in Bobls after super-strong 5 year German auction, both holding near intraday highs within 118.34-06 and 135.90-33 ranges.
Gilts lag in catch-up trade after long UK weekend between 100.85-43 parameters.
US Treasuries regroup after Monday’s slump amidst a decline in NFIB business optimism and awaiting Fed commentary ahead of latest debt ceiling talks, T-note near 115-15+ peak vs 115-06+ trough.
Commodities
WTI and Brent are back on a modest downward trajectory after recent positive sessions and yesterday’s Alberta-driven upside; currently, the benchmarks are circa. USD 0.80/bbl lower.
Newsflow has been focused on UAE remarks and Aramco’s update after Chinese trade data was mixed with an unexpected contraction in imports potentially a signal towards weaker demand and a headwind for the complex.
Saudi Aramco Q1 – Saw lower crude oil prices. Major investments advance strategic downstream expansion in key global markets. Global downstream strategy is gaining momentum. 99.7% supply reliability. Believe oil and gas will remain critical components of the energy mix for the foreseeable future. Moving forward with the capacity expansion and long-term outlook remains unchanged.. “Based on the government budget figures the Saudi Government 2023 budgeted revenues are likely based on Brent of ~USD 81/bbl”, according to Al Rajhi Bank cited by Energy Intel’s Bakr.
Spot gold remains underpinned around the USD 2025/oz mark and surrounded by resistance/support marks in relatively close proximity. Base metals are broadly softer, given the mentioned Chinese trade data.
Geopolitics
Head of Russian Wagner Group Prigozhin said that they have not received the promised ammunition after earlier stating that shipments were preliminarily sent, according to Reuters.
US is to provide USD 1.2bln more in long-term military aid to Ukraine to further bolster its air defences, according to US officials cited by AP.
UK Foreign Secretary Cleverly is visiting the US and will hold talks with US Secretary of State Blinken on Tuesday to discuss support for Ukraine, according to Sky News.
US State Department said the US Ambassador to China told Chinese Foreign Minister Qin that there has been no change to US one-China policy, while US Secretary of State Blinken would like to visit China and intends to go when conditions allow.
US Event Calendar
06:00: April SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 89.0, est. 89.7, prior 90.1
08:30: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks to Atlanta Black Chamber
12:05: Fed’s Williams Speaks to Economic Club of New York
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
We’re back from the King’s Coronation holiday today. I’ve had more quiche since I last sent the EMR than I’ve had in the previous decade. The weather over the three day weekend was in order; awful, quite nice, awful. Thankfully the big street party was on the sunny day. I’m looking forward to leaving the rain (and the leftover quiche) behind for a couple of days as I escape to Spain. DB is hosting a morning macro outlook event in our Madrid offices tomorrow, with a selection of research speakers, so please reach out to your DB sales coverage if you’d like to attend.
So London returns back to work today between the hotly anticipated US senior loan officers’ opinion survey (SLOOS) last night and US CPI tomorrow.
On the former, the headline numbers were weak but maybe not as bad as feared, but there were plenty of weakness in the report regardless. The headliner saw the net percentage of banks tightening lending standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to medium/large businesses rise to 46% from 44.8% in Q4, and for small banks 46.7% from 44.8%. The medium/large businesses number is still below the peaks observed during the pandemic, GFC, early-2000s and early 1990s but is in recessionary territory. Meanwhile, the percentage of banks reporting stronger demand for C&I loans dropped to 55.6% in Q1 – the lowest level since 2009. Even as demand is lower, the willingness of banks to lend continues to fall. This dynamic was more apparent at smaller lenders, as one would expect.
There was a relatively muted market response to the SLOOS data, as the results were broadly in-line with expectations, or as a minimum didn’t bring any additional fear to the market. US 10yr Treasury yields were already around +6bps higher before the report and finished the day just off their highs to close +7.0bps higher at 3.507%. This morning in Asia, 10yr yields (-1.15bps) are slightly down as we go to press. 2yr yields similarly closed just off their highs, up +8.7bps on the day at 4.001% (-2bps in Asia). The rate selloff came despite minimal movements in Fed pricing. The chance of a rate cut in July fell from 40% to just under 37%, while fed futures are still implying two full 25bp rate cuts by year-end and a better-than-not chance of a third 25bp cut.
The SLOOS survey was followed by the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, which comes following the collapse of 3 of the 4 largest bank failures in US history in the last 2 months. The Fed remains concerned that worries about “the economic outlook, credit quality, and funding liquidity could lead banks and other financial institutions to further contract the supply of credit to the economy.” This would directly raise the cost of funding and potentially result in a meaningful slowdown in the broader economy. In terms of specific risks, the Fed pointed to high property valuations despite weakening fundamentals, high levels of business debt, and funding risks due to banks holding high amounts of AFS and HTM securities. They note that financial leverage is not in poor shape, saying “high levels of capital and moderate interest rate risk exposures mean that a large majority of banks are resilient to potential strains from higher interest rates.”
Treasury Secretary Yellen last night appeared on CNBC calling for congress to raise the Debt Ceiling, announcing that the Treasury could “run out of cash” as soon as June 1. This comes ahead of today’s meeting between the White House and Congressional leadership where they are expected to discuss a path forward. On the banking sector, Secretary Yellen noted that the system remains well capitalized but that the regulators are “ready to use tools if bank pressures arise”. She also did not rule out the possibility of a recession, but argued it is not the most likely path.
The US banking sector saw a slight pullback yesterday after Friday’s strong rally in US regional banks following reports that the FDIC is set to exempt smaller US banks from contributing to the deposit insurance fund. The KBW bank index was down -0.26%, but embattled regionals such as Western Alliance (+0.59%), PacWest (+3.65%), and Zion (+2.10%) were able to finish higher on the day. PacWest was up nearly +30% at the open though, highlighting the whipsawing price action. More broadly, the S&P 500 was just better than flat (+0.05%) as cyclicals such as media (+1.45%) and autos (+0.95%) outperformed at the expense of bond-proxies and defensives like REITs (-0.65%), software (-0.48%), utilities (-0.32%), and food & beverage (-0.38%).
While the UK was out, the STOXX 600 (+0.35%) rose to a 2-week high on the back of cyclicals such as travel & leisure (+0.75%), banks (+0.75%) and retail (+0.56%), while defensives fell back slightly. 10yr yields also rose moderately, with those on bunds (+2.8bps), OATs (+3.0bps) and BTPs (+4.9bps) all closing higher.
The drop in commodity prices over the spring has been a positive for consumer inflation, however that trend has reversed over the past few sessions with commodity prices jumping again yesterday after closing last week rather strong. Indeed, Brent crude rose +2.27% to close at $77.01/bbl, after reaching a 16-month low last Wednesday. It was a similar story for European natural gas prices (+0.82%), which is now just over 3% higher than its recent 20-month lows of €35.65/MWh.
US inflation data is in focus this week with CPI tomorrow, followed by PPI (Thursday) and the University of Michigan survey (Friday). In terms of CPI, our US economists expect headline and core to come in at +0.3% m/m (vs +0.1% and +0.4% in March, respectively). For PPI, they are expecting a +0.3% core rise as well and a -0.5% headline contraction, due to falling energy prices. Lastly on the Michigan survey they are forecasting a 62.0 reading vs 63.5 for the sentiment gauge. The inflation expectations component both 1yr and 5-10 years especially will be in the spotlight.
Outside of the US inflation data, there will be a good deal of interest surrounding the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday. Our UK economist (see preview here) expects the central bank to deliver a +25bps hike, leaving the Bank Rate at 4.5%, and while they do not anticipate any major changes to forward guidance they acknowledge there is a risk that the MPC leans dovish. Further out, they expect a final +25bps hike in June, while underscoring upside risks to their terminal view. After the meeting, UK GDP Q1 will be out on Friday showing how the economy has fared through the winter.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Hang Seng (-0.52%) and the KOSPI (-0.51%) lower, whilst the Nikkei (+0.77%), the CSI (+0.42%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.36%) are bucking the trend. In overnight trading, US stock futures are printing mild losses with those on the S&P 500 (-0.05%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.10%) slightly lower.
Early morning data showed that China’s exports (USD) recorded a second straight month of growth, advancing +8.5% y/y in April (v/s +8.0% expected), compared with an increase of +14.8% while imports (-7.9% y/y) contracted sharply in April, higher than the market expected decline of -0.2% and compared to prior month’s drop of -1.4% indicating that domestic demand remains tepid. Elsewhere, household spending in Japan unexpectedly fell -1.9% y/y in March, notching its biggest decline since March 2022 asagainst a Bloomberg consensus forecast for a +0.4% rise and following a +1.6% gain in February. Separately data showed that real wages declined for the 12th consecutive month, dropping -2.9% y/y in March (v/s -2.4% expected) as persistent inflation works through the system.
Now looking at the day ahead, in the US we will get NFIB small business optimism, which will dovetail nicely with the SLOOS data that was released yesterday. Additionally, there is France’s March trade balance. From Central Banks, market participants will hear from the Fed’s Williams and Jefferson, as well as the ECB’s Lane, Vasle and Rehn. Lastly, while we are in the back-nine of earnings season there will be interest in reports from Saudi Aramco, Airbnb, Nintendo, Mitsubishi, Apollo, Electronic Arts, Daimler, and Wynn Resorts today.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Stocks slip with commodities clipped after Chinese trade; Fed/debt updates ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 06:36 AM
European bourses & US futures are softer as the region struggles for a foothold after mixed APAC trade and ahead of Fed/debt ceiling events
USD picks up against peers ex-JPY as yields ease from best while AUD retreats after Chinese imports declined unexpectedly
Yellen reiterates the Treasury could run out of cash as soon as June 1st, with the Bipartisan centre expecting the x-date between early-June to August
Fixed benchmarks have been choppy but are firmer overall with Bunds bolstered on strong supply and USTs near highs
Commodities are, broadly speaking, pressured as the USD picks up and after Chinese trade data
Looking ahead, highlights include ECB’s Lane & Schnabel, Fed’s Williams & Jefferson, Biden meeting Congressional Leaders. Supply from the US, Earnings from Airbnb & Occidental Petroleum.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are softer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, as the region struggles to find a foothold in relatively quiet trade after a mixed APAC handover.
Sectors are similarly softer with Real Estate lagging after soft Halifax data and SBB headwinds; individual movers dictated by earnings updates for Fresenius, Daimler Trucks & more.
ES -0.4% dips with the region again lacking firm direction ahead of Fed speak and Biden’s debt ceiling meeting; NQ and RTY roughly in-fitting.
Buck finds its feet vs most majors bar the Yen as Treasury yields ease off Monday’s peaks and BoJ Governor Ueda notes higher Japanese inflation expectations.
DXY forms a firmer base around 101.500 and USD/JPY pivots 135.00 where 1bln option expiries roll off at the NY cut.
Aussie retreats as Chinese imports unexpectedly tumble and AUD/USD eyes support into 0.6750 from Monday’s high just over 0.6800.
Euro loses 1.1000+ status vs Dollar and Fib support against Pound as Cable retains underlying bid mostly above 1.2600.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9255 vs exp. 6.9251 (prev. 6.9158)
Turkey raises the wages of some civil servants by 45%, according to Turkish President Erdogan.
Click here for the notable FX expiries for today’s NY cut.
FIXED INCOME
Choppy trade in bonds, but Bunds piggy-back bounce in Bobls after super-strong 5 year German auction, both holding near intraday highs within 118.34-06 and 135.90-33 ranges.
Gilts lag in catch-up trade after long UK weekend between 100.85-43 parameters.
US Treasuries regroup after Monday’s slump amidst a decline in NFIB business optimism and awaiting Fed commentary ahead of latest debt ceiling talks, T-note near 115-15+ peak vs 115-06+ trough.
WTI and Brent are back on a modest downward trajectory after recent positive sessions and yesterday’s Alberta-driven upside; currently, the benchmarks are circa. USD 0.80/bbl lower.
Newsflow has been focused on UAE remarks and Aramco’s update after Chinese trade data was mixed with an unexpected contraction in imports potentially a signal towards weaker demand and a headwind for the complex.
Saudi Aramco Q1 – Saw lower crude oil prices. Major investments advance strategic downstream expansion in key global markets. Global downstream strategy is gaining momentum. 99.7% supply reliability. Believe oil and gas will remain critical components of the energy mix for the foreseeable future. Moving forward with the capacity expansion and long-term outlook remains unchanged.. “Based on the government budget figures the Saudi Government 2023 budgeted revenues are likely based on Brent of ~USD 81/bbl”, according to Al Rajhi Bank cited by Energy Intel’s Bakr.
Spot gold remains underpinned around the USD 2025/oz mark and surrounded by resistance/support marks in relatively close proximity. Base metals are broadly softer, given the mentioned Chinese trade data.
ECB’s Kazaks says rate hiking may not be finished in July, via Bloomberg; bets on Spring 2024 ECB cuts are significantly premature. Doing too little remains the greater danger. Not impossible for the ECB to hike/pause in the scenario the Fed is cutting.
ECB’s Kazimir says based on current data, will need to keep raising rates for longer than anticipated; September projections are the earliest time to gauge the effectiveness of measures and see if inflation is heading to target.
Norges Bank Governor Bache says does not need additional policy tools, FX interventions to influence NOK are costly and not very efficient.
German Chancellor Schloz says the EU must reduce risks in China relations without cutting ties saying this is not decoupling, but smart de-risking is the way forward with China.
UK Barclaycard April consumer spending rose 4.3% Y/Y but was impacted by inflation squeeze on disposable incomes and higher food prices, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
UK BRC Retail Sales Like-For-Like YY (Apr) 5.2% (Prev. 4.9%); Total Sales YY (Apr) 5.1% (Prev. 5.1%)
French Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Mar) -8.023B vs. Exp. -9.3B (Prev. -9.904B, Rev. -9.302B)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed Semi-Annual Financial Stability Report stated that recent turmoil in the banking industry has stabilised but could weigh on credit conditions going forward and said the banking sector overall remained resilient with substantial loss-absorbing capacity. It also stated that policy interventions by bank regulators limit the potential for further stress and domestic banks have ample liquidity overall, while funding strains were notable for some banks but overall funding risks across the banking system were low.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated the projection that the Treasury will run out of cash and extraordinary measures to pay debts as soon as June 1st and warned if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling, US President Biden will have to make decisions on what to do with resources but there are no good options. Furthermore, Yellen noted that there is clearly a big gap between the President’s position and that of Republicans regarding the debt ceiling, according to a CNBC interview.
California’s financial regulator released its report on the Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) failure and stated that it failed to make SVB address management problems fast enough, while it increased scrutiny of banks with assets of more than USD 50bln, according to Reuters.
US debt limit default “X-date” to be between early June and early August, depending on revenue strength, according to the Bipartisan policy centre. Reminder, Biden is meeting with Congressional Leaders at 21:00BST/16:00ET
IMF Chief Economist Gourinchas says we are a bit concerned by recent banking sector turbulence.
Head of Russian Wagner Group Prigozhin said that they have not received the promised ammunition after earlier stating that shipments were preliminarily sent, according to Reuters.
US is to provide USD 1.2bln more in long-term military aid to Ukraine to further bolster its air defences, according to US officials cited by AP.
UK Foreign Secretary Cleverly is visiting the US and will hold talks with US Secretary of State Blinken on Tuesday to discuss support for Ukraine, according to Sky News.
US State Department said the US Ambassador to China told Chinese Foreign Minister Qin that there has been no change to US one-China policy, while US Secretary of State Blinken would like to visit China and intends to go when conditions allow.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged within sub-USD 300 parameters and holding just above the USD 27.5k mark.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mixed following the indecisive performance from Wall St where the focus was on the Fed’s SLOOS which showed banks tightened credit terms and demand for loans declined, while the attention in the region shifted to earnings and data releases including mixed Chinese trade figures.
ASX 200 was lower with early pressure seen across nearly all sectors and with the top-weighted financial industry choppy after earnings from Australia’s largest lender CBA which reported a slight increase in Q3 cash profit although NII was lower compared to the quarterly average in H1 and the Co. also noted that many customers are feeling the strain of higher interest rates and rising living costs.
Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 29,000 status, with the index unfazed by weak household spending data as participants digested earnings.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied after the latest Chinese trade figures which showed stronger-than-expected export growth but imports disappointed with a surprise contraction.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
EU Ambassador to China thinks the comment by EU’s Borrell suggesting that EU navies patrol the Taiwan Strait has been grossly exaggerated, while he also commented regarding China’s anti-espionage law and consultancy crackdown in which he stated that this is not good news and expressed doubts regarding the compatibility of this policy with the opening up of China’s economy.
Chinese embassy said China strongly condemns and firmly opposes Canada’s decision to expel the Chinese diplomat and has lodged a protest with the Canadian government. China also claimed that Canada ‘sabotaged’ relations and vowed ‘resolute countermeasures’. Subsequently, China said it will expel a Canadian diplomat as a countermeasure.
BoJ Governor Ueda said their scheduled review won’t have any pre-set idea in mind on specific monetary policy moves and said they will take necessary policy action at each meeting with an eye on financial and price developments even while conducting the review. Ueda also commented that if the price target is met in a sustainable manner, the BoJ will end YCC and then shrink its balance sheet, while he added they are seeing some bright signs including on inflation expectations which have heightened and remain at elevated levels.
Australian Budget: Government forecasts 2022/23 budget surplus of AUD 4.2bln (exp. AUD 4bln), 2023/24 budget deficit at AUD 13.9bln (0.5% of GDP), 2024/25 budget AUD 35.1bln (1.3% of GDP). Click here for more detail.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Apr) 90.21B vs. Exp. 71.6B (Prev. 88.19B)
Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Apr) 8.5% vs. Exp. 8.0% (Prev. 14.8%); Imports YY (USD)(Apr) -7.9% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -1.4%)
Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Apr) 618.4B vs. Exp. 632.7B (Prev. 601.0B)
Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Apr) 16.8% vs. Exp. 10.5% (Prev. 23.4%); Imports YY (CNY)(Apr) -0.8% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 6.1%)
Japanese All Household Spending MM (Mar) -0.8% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. -2.4%); YY (Mar) -1.9% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.6%)
Australian Retail Trade (Q1) -0.6% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.2%, Rev. -0.3%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37,33 PTS OR 0.40% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 429,45 POINTS OR 2.12% /The Nikkei closed UP 292.94 OR 1.01% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.21 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.9215 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9253 /Oil DOWN TO 72.55 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 76.35 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA///
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
ITALY/CHINA/BRI
Italy will formally pull out of the BRI and that will be a major blow to China
(zerohedge)
Italy’s Meloni To Pull Trigger On Belt & Road Exit In Major Blow To China
The government of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is readying plans to pull the trigger on a formal exit from China’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), estimated at having funded $900 billion in infrastructure projects globally.
The past weeks have seen increasing reports that Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party has been spearheading a move away from the BRI, though some within the broader center-right coalition unity government have been on the fence. Bloomberg now reports Tuesday that “Italy has signaled to the US that it intends to pull out of a controversial investment pact with China before the end of the year.”
“Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reassured US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a meeting in Rome last week that while a final decision hasn’t been taken, her government is favoring an exit from its role in China’s massive Belt and Road Initiative, according to people present at the talks,” Bloomberg continues. Neither the Italian nor US administrations have yet to give public comment or confirmation to the report.
But Rome could also be hesitant over economic retaliation from Beijing. Ratcheting the pressure over the decision is the European Union’s previewing a new package of trade restrictions meant to “punish” China.
As the FT reported Sunday, “Brussels has proposed sanctions on Chinese companies for supporting Russia’s war machine for the first time since the war in Ukraine began, a development that is likely to increase tensions with Beijing.”
The list includes a couple mainland Chinese companies – 3HC Semiconductors and King-Pai Technology, as well as five Hong Kong-based firms: Sigma Technology, Asia Pacific Links, Sinno Electronics, Tordan Industry, and Alpha Trading Investments. However, the sanctions package still needs approval by all 27 EU member states to take effect.
An Italy pullout of the BRI would be a significant and also hugely symbolic blow to Beijing, given Italy had been the very first G-7 country became part of the controversial Chinese initiative, crucial to Xi’s vision for Chinese global expansion. Italy had formally signed on under then Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte. It’s widely perceived that this triggered greater Washington engagement with Rome, in order to steer the country away from Chinese influence.
According to analysis cited in earlier Bloomberg reporting from last month:
“Italy is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and what to do with the cooperation pact is a real diplomatic conundrum for Meloni,” Francesca Ghiretti, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies research company, said in an interview. “Renewing it would send a very difficult message to Washington, but not renewing it would put a strain in relations with China.”
The Italian PM could have an official statement ready to roll out by the time of the May 19-21 Group of 7 summit in Hiroshima.Reuters/Brookings Institution
Italy isn’t well-connected to China by shipping routes, either, which is probably why Xi in prior years cited improving connectivity and building ports as a key objective of BRI in Italy. But lately, as Bloomberg notes, “The US has actively pressured Rome to take a public stance on the issue, and ditch the pact, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private.”
END
SWEDEN
CRE crisis spreads to Sweden: Sweden’s largest commercial landlord SBB implodes after its bonds become junk and after they halted dividends
(zerohedge)
CRE Crisis Crosses Atlantic: Sweden’s Largest Commercial Landlord SBB Implodes After Getting Junked, Halting Dividend
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 12:45 PM
The US Commercial real estate crisis – which according to Jim Cramer “isn’t going to destabilize the system” thus guaranteeing another global crash – has crossed the Atlantic and made landfall in Sweden where commercial landlord SBB – one of the most-owned stocks in Sweden – saw its share price crater to the lowest level since 2018 years after the company announced plans to postpone a dividend and cancel a rights issue intended to shore up its finances.
Shares in Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB — as SBB is formally known — plummeted more than 20% and have fallen 14 out of the last 15 trading days. Today’s plunge compounded the losses from Monday when the stock cratered 20% following a credit rating cut to junk by S&P Global Ratings. Its market capitalization has dropped from over $17 billion in late 2021 to less than $1.5 billion, a historic collapse for its more than 260,000 shareholders.
In a statement issued at 11 p.m. Stockholm time on Monday, the property company said that “the market reaction thereafter has made it impossible to carry out the rights issue of ordinary D-shares on the intended terms”, Bloomberg reports, noting that it is seeking to push back its dividend payment date until next year’s shareholders meeting “at the latest.” The Stockholm-based company also said it will not carry out the issuance of 2.6 billion kronor ($260 million) worth of new class D shares.
The dividend cut comes one day after SBB’s credit rating was cut to junk by S&P Global Ratings, which warned a further downgrade is possible if the company is “unable to secure sufficient funding sources in the next couple of quarters to sustainably cover its short-term financial obligations.” The ratings firm said it no longer believed the landlord could meet its thresholds for investment-grade debt; the downgrade adds to the company’s costs by triggering so-called “step-up” coupons on its existing debt. That adds up to an additional 285 million kronor in financing costs.
The developments raise serious questions for one of Sweden’s biggest landlords as it grapples with an $8.1 billion debt load amid sharply rising interest rates and ballooning credit spreads. It’s also symptomatic of the problems facing the wider commercial property sector in Sweden.
The collapse in SBB’s price is also a crushing blow for CEO Ilija Batljan, who has repeatedly assured investors he would take action to defend the company’s credit profile. SBB derives most of its rental income from regulated residential properties in the Nordic region.
Similar to their US peers, Swedish landlords must roll over $40.8 billion of maturing bond debt over the next five years, a quarter of which falls due in 2023. They have been viewed as the canary in the coal mine for European real estate because much of that debt is short term and floating rate, making it particularly exposed to interest rates.
Analysts at Arctic Securities AS welcomed the plan by SBB to improve its liquidity position. “These two decisions, pausing the dividend payout and cancelling the planned issue of D-shares, are as a whole positive for SBB shareholders,” real estate analyst Michael Johansson said by phone.
“The problem for SBB is that the dividend has already been voted through at the AGM, so their only option is to pause it,” he added.
Others were less sanguine: “This will be yet another negative overhang for the sector,” even if SBB’s situation doesn’t directly correlate with its Swedish peers, said Molly Guggenheimer, an equity strategist at Danske Bank in Stockholm; he added that the canceled share issue was “illustrative of SBB’s current lack of access to capital markets, increasing refinancing risks.”
Carnegie downgrades SBB to sell from hold, with analyst Fredric Cyon saying downside risks remain high, and that corporate actions are required to improve the balance sheet. “Further disposals are an option, but we doubt this would be enough to restore investor confidence,” Cyon writes, cutting price target to SEK7 from SEK13.
The plunge in SBB hammered European real estate stocks which dropped 3.2%, led by Swedish firms with Sagax -7.8%, Balder -7.6%, Wallenstam -5.9%, Fabege -4.4%. European sector peers falling include Kojamo -5.3%, Aroundtown -5.1%, Safestore -5%, Tritax Big Box REIT -4.8%.
A 15% decline in residential home prices in Sweden – one of the world’s worst property routs – exacerbates the challenges facing the real estate sector more broadly by making sales less lucrative. But with banks tightening lending and bond markets all but closed for lower rated issuers, few options are available.
In a sign of the tension, the statement was issued close to 11 p.m. local time on Monday following an emergency meeting of SBB’s board.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE/POLAND
Ukraine has been dumping food gains etc into Europe and receiving preferential treatment and this has angered many Europeans as they cannot
compete on price. Now Polish freight carriers are blocking Ukrainian border crossing over these unfair trade practices.
(zerohedge)
Polish Freight Carriers Block Ukrainian Border Crossing Over Unfair Trade
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 07:45 AM
In the latest backlash to preferential trade for Ukraine, Polish freight carriers have been blocking one of the Poland-Ukraine border crossings over the past week.
The protesters, who have rejected an offer from the Ukrainian infrastructure ministry to allow Polish drivers to bring EU goods to Ukraine without permits, have demanded the reinstatement of the mutual entry permit program which was suspended when the war in Ukraine broke out, Notes from Poland reports.
According to the report, several dozen Polish protesters are only allowing five lorries per hour to enter Poland from Ukraine at the crossing in Dorohusk – leaving truck drivers waiting for between six and ten days.
Kyiv first sent a note of protest to the Polish foreign ministry and claimed that the demands of the protesting carriers were unjustified. It later stated that as of 8 May, Polish firms would be temporarily allowed to carry out transports from any EU country to Ukraine without the relevant permits and vehicle environmental standards requirements. -Notes from Poland
At the moment, more than 5,000 lorries cannot cross our largest border crossing. With limited capacity and blockade of seaports, smooth distribution of cargo is impossible,” said Ukraine’s infrastructure minister Serhiy Derkach, adding “We are grateful to our Polish friends for their continued support in resisting the aggressor and look forward to further dialogue to unblock the border. We have taken the first step, we look forward to the next one.”
As we noted last month, Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria have come under fire over bans on Ukrainian food imports, after the leader of Poland’s conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) Jarosław Kaczyński, announced that a range of agricultural products such as grain, fruits, dairy, vegetables and poultry meat would be stopped from entering Poland from Ukraine. The decision has come as a result of the glut of grain from Ukraine and the flood of Ukrainian products onto the Polish market. In addition, Hungary and Slovakia have enacted similar measures, and there are reports that Romania and Bulgaria may also close their border to certain Ukrainian food imports.
If Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Poland all block Ukrainian food product transit, it would effectively result in a geographical blockade in Europe, as the four countries border Ukraine.
The protesters, however, are not satisfied with Ukraine’s concessions. Rafał Mekler, regional leader of the far-right Confederation party and the owner of a trucking company protesting in Dorohusk, noted that Kyiv’s decision to suspend the permits shows that “the Ukrainian side interprets as it wishes what it has agreed to”.
“We don’t need permits since the EU abolished such requirements as a result of a deal with Ukraine,” he told Notes from Poland, referring to a deal struck between EU and Ukraine last year.
“Suddenly it turns out the permits are needed, [which] we knew earlier, because our carriers are getting fines for [lack of them], and many are being harassed in Ukraine,” he added.
Łukasz Białasz, a self-employed lorry driver who has been carrying freight to Ukraine for 13 years, told Notes from Poland that Polish transport firms have been receiving fines in Ukraine for lack of permits, amounting to €800.
Polish carriers claim that following European and Ukrainian regulations that came into force last summer, rates for freight have collapsed after Ukrainian companies were granted nearly unrestricted access to the Polish market.
“At the moment the rates have been so squeezed that profitability is disappearing,” said Białasz. “Ukrainian carriers who have been operating in this market for a long time also object to the lack of permits. They also want the permits to be reinstated, as this regulates the rates on the market.”
END
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA
Robert H to us:
Why Do We Keep Feeding the Merchants of Death?
As previously written this week saw the start of thousands of American troops being sent to Poland to join the troops already there who have been training to fight in Ukraine in similar villages that they will encounter. When the Ukrainian offensive flounders which it will; it is likely that these troops will be sent along with Polish troops into the Ukraine. The use of depleted uranium shells kindly provided by the US and Britain is beyond stupid showing a complete disregard for life. Iraq and other places have shown the horrors of use of such shells last long after the soldiers are gone and conflict forgotten to torments families and their offspring. If there was a conscious, this would be a war crime against humanity. While this Money laundering charade continues in Ukraine use of these shells will be a escalation that will not go over well with Russians or Ukrainians.
Non-oil trade between Iran and members of the BRICS alliance of emergent economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – reached $38.43 billion in fiscal year 2022-23, according to data released by the Islamic Republic’s Customs Administration. This represents a 14 percent increase from the previous fiscal year.
China remains Iran’s main trade partner in the BRICS alliance, with $30.32 billion in trade, an increase of 37 percent. India comes next with $4.99 billion, a 47 percent hike; Russia follows with $2.32 billion, Brazil with $466.55 million, and South Africa with $322.04 million.Image source: IRNA
The economic report comes just days after Tehran revealed that trade with African nations increased by 2.24 percent in fiscal year 2022-23, to reach $1.2 billion.
Despite a “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign from the west – and a push from Washington to seize more Iranian oil ships – the Islamic Republic has managed to overcome the unilateral restrictions and bolster industrial capacity.
In recent months, BRICS has also seen a surge of interest from Global South nations looking to ditch the US dollar and the hegemonic western financial system. Iran, alongside five Arab nations, have formally requested to join the alliance. BRICS foreign ministers will hold an annual summit in Cape Town during the first week of June to discuss the membership applications.
“We are getting applications to join every day,” South Africa’s ambassador to the bloc told Bloomberg last month. Bloomberg revealed BRICS is expected to surpass G7 states in economic growth expectations. By 2028, the G7 is expected to make up just 27.8 percent of the global economy, while BRICS will make up 35 percent.
In January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that BRICS is in talks to create a common currency.
Referring to the US-dominated financial system, Lavrov said that “serious, self-respecting countries are well aware of what is at stake, see the incompetence of the ‘masters’ of the current international monetary and financial system, and want to create their own mechanisms to ensure sustainable development, which will be protected from outside dictates.”
On April 13, Brazil’s President Ignacio Lula da Silva called on the member states of BRICS and countries that seek to become part of it to replace the dollar in foreign trade. “Every night, I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on the dollar,” he said, adding the question, “Why can’t we do trade based on our own currencies.”
end
TURKEY/USA/UKRAINE
end
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
Local And Private COVID Vaccine Mandates For Patients And Health Care Workers Being Reversed, Overturned Across US
In what is seen as a major victory for transplant patients who did not take the COVID vaccine, one of the largest transplant centers in the United States reversed its policy to require the jab in order to be eligible for an organ transplant.
The University of Michigan (UM) announced its new policy on May 4 just before court proceedings were about to get underway in a lawsuit filed against it for declaring patients ineligible for an organ transplant unless they agreed to the jab.
The suit was filed on behalf of several patients by David Peters of Pacific Justice Institute who in celebrating the reversal simply stated “we’re winning!”
In a written statement, UM said it was “new information” that led to the “voluntary decision” to reverse its policy.
“The University hereby gives notice to the Court that in light of developing epidemiological and other actuarial circumstances, effective April 27, 2023, it has changed its Transplant Center COVID-19 Vaccination Requirement for Adult Transplant Candidates. Relevant to this litigation, COVID-19 vaccine will no longer be required prior to wait-listing of potential adult solid organ transplant recipients.”
The UM decision fell on the same day a federal judge chastised Maine Assistant Attorney General Kimberly Patwardhan for filing a motion to dismiss a lawsuit filed on behalf of health care workers who lost their job for refusing to get their COVID vaccine.
“You obviously have not been reading the U.S. Supreme Court precedent on this or else you would not have filed your motion to dismiss,” Judge Sandra Lynch said to Patwardhan.
Lynch made the comments during oral arguments in the case before a three-judge panel of First Circuit Court of Appeals in Boston. The case is being argued by Matt Staver, Founder of Liberty Counsel, on behalf of the health care workers.
In addition to the ban, Maine Governor Mills also threatened to revoke the licenses of all health care employers who fail to mandate the COVID shot for all workers.
The rural New England state is one of six that banned religious exemptions from vaccine mandates.
The others are New York, California, Connecticut, West Virginia, and Mississippi.
Dr. McCullough: Here is What the Censors Don’t Want You to Know
BY THE WELLNESS COMPANY
The year is 2018: more and more scientific papers are being published, but relatively few are ever retracted. In fact, per the website Science, only 4 out of every 10,000 (of 0.04%) were retracted annually for flaws in methodology or outright fraud.
Fast-forward to today: the retraction rate of published medical papers is EXPLODING. Moreover, no topic is more retracted than – you guessed it – COVID19. Per Dr. Peter McCullough, the most published cardiologist in United States history:
The majority of pandemic papers retracted unfortunately are following a different pattern of valid publication, heavy citation as important contributions, and then pressure exacted on editors/publishers from likely the biopharmaceutical complex (global/federal agencies, NGOs, pharmaceutical companies, conflicted university researchers). Papers are then retracted for “administrative” reasons outside of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) guideline for journal retractions.
Dr. McCullough himself has experienced this machine in action when he and Dr. Rose published A Report on Myocarditis Adverse Events in the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) in Association with COVID-19 Injectable Biological Products. This paper presented thorough research on the increased risk of myocarditis created by the COVID shots:
I have experienced as a co-author of a fully published paper on vaccine safety that was retracted for “administrative” reasons by Current Problems in Cardiology. The journal asked Dr. Rose and myself to electively withdraw the paper and we refused. The publisher Elsevier stated to the public authors or editors requested the retraction—it was the editor, not the authors.
Dr. McCullough has a theory to the strategy, which reflects the sad reality we live in:
I believe any paper is targeted that brings hope to patients on early therapy, natural immunity, or reveals failure of government narratives concerning contagion control or vaccine safety. The biopharmaceutical complex uses a variety of measures to coerce editors/publishers to retract manuscripts and remove threats to the “official narrative” depicting the virus is deadly, unassailable, with the only solution being continued mass vaccination.
Indeed, if you’re worried about lingering health issues after the “plandemic,” one of the most simple, effective and most censored solutions to combatting the risks to poised to your health from spike protein left by COVID and the jabs is a daily dose of over-the-counter nattokinase, an enzyme know for its ability to degrade spike protein. Per Dr. McCullough:
“Nattokinase is an enzyme is produced by fermenting soybeans with bacteria Bacillus subtilis var. natto and has been available as an oral supplement. It degrades fibrinogen, factor VII, cytokines, and factor VIII and has been studied for its cardiovascular benefits. Out of all the available therapies I have used in my practice and among all the proposed detoxification agents, I believe nattokinase and related peptides hold the greatest promise for patients at this time.”
“I saw Dr. McCullough talk about the product and decided to give it a try. A month and a half later, I feel sooo much better. I also have recommended the product to family members to help them detox from the painful side effects of the vaccine.”
“I feel like I have had brain fog for the past 18 months and after taking this supplement noticed the fog lifting finally. I plan to buy more for myself and now a friend suffering from heart issues.”
“I am grateful for the Wellness Company and for you coming out with this spike protein vitamins. I am a big believer in natural healing and not pharmaceutical drugs. Thank you for doing what is right and for speaking truth in a world that is so dark.”
levels & these mRNA technology inventors just parade around and give talks on horses and farms & when the bogus mass formation failed, now onto 5-G warfare with another bullshit ‘misdirection’ coming
Praise to Makis my Canadian colleague, he has joined me at TWC (giants like Harvey Risch, McCullough, Amerling, Gessling, myself, Ponesse etc.),
one of the best companies and ventures out there, on tap doing real good, founder put his money on the line to save lives. We are remaking health care. Yes, we have morons and idiots and IMO pure losers in other outfits badmouthing us for they can do squat, just navel staring but word is they are talking smack on our spike support formula yet trying to make their own. Let us see how deep the hypocracy can go! I do not include Bridle, this is a really a good human being, not a bad bone in this man’s body.
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The Real Reason Why the U.S. is Trying to Control the Elections in Turkey this Week
May 8, 2023 7:15 pm
Yesterday, (May 7, 2023), there was a rally of reportedly 1.7 million people at Istanbul’s Atatürk Airport showing support for Turkey’s current president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, ahead of national elections this coming Sunday, May 14th. On Saturday, (May 6, 2023), Erdoğan’s opponent for president in the national elections, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, also held a rally in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, but I have been unable to find any published reports about how large the crowds were, although some of the foreign English media have reported that the crowds were in “the thousands” or “tens of thousands.” The media here in the U.S., however, in both the corporate media and the alternative media, are reporting that President Erdoğan is either losing or in a close race with Kiliçdaroglu, as they characterize Erdoğan as losing support in an election that “really matters.” Why do they say that this election “really matters”? They use the same old excuse they always use when the U.S. has an interest in interfering with elections in other countries where they do not like the outcome: “democracy is at stake.” As someone who has lived for many years in Turkey in the past, and was at one time fluent in Turkish and worked as a translator in Turkey, I am going to report the “other side” of this Turkish election that you are not likely going to read in Western English news reports. To sum up the “other side” of why the United States does not want Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to be re-elected as President of Turkey, it is because Turkey is clearly choosing sides in the conflict between the U.S. and Russia in Ukraine, and they are choosing their neighbor, Russia, who is helping Turkey become energy and military independent from the U.S., and part of a larger coalition of Middle Eastern Countries who are banding together to fight years of U.S. military dominance in their region over oil. Some have even suggested that the deadly earthquake in Turkey earlier this year was not natural, but caused by an HAARP (High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program) weapon used by the U.S. to punish Turkey for working together with Russia.
The strategic policy of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) is to set aside US dollar in trade and FOREX exchanges with other countries, the CBI chief said. Mohammad Reza Farzin made the comment in his meeting with Omani Minister of Commerce, Industry and Investment Promotion Qais bin Mohammad Al Yousef in Tehran on Monday. During the meeting, Farzin pointed to the full readiness of the Central Bank of Iran to remove the US dollar from trade and economic transactions between Iran and the Sultanate of Oman.
Yes, the Fed embraced a “Possible Pause”, as Philip Marey puts it, after hiking rates 25bps to 5.25% as expected. That’s not the early autumn rate cuts the market is pricing for while saying ‘Hike in May then go the other way’. Indeed, Powell will still be watching the data closely, especially as the ADP employment report came in hot at 296K vs. 150K expected, ISM services prices paid was 59.5 with new orders at 56.1, and the separate US services PMI noted: “there are indications that resurgent demand for services is reigniting inflationary pressures. Average rates charged for services are now rising at the sharpest rate for eight months, as firms report a greater ability to pass increased costs on to customers.” Worse, looking beyond the Fed, we aren’t seeing a pause but an escalation:
The International Chamber of Commerce 2023 Trade Report said ‘A fragmenting world’, and stressed: geopolitical tensions will continue to shape supply chains and trade dynamics; businesses are already adjusting their inventory strategy and diversify their suppliers; fragmentation is accelerating; the rise of subsidies, export controls and investment restrictions are contributing to trade fragmentation; digital fragmentation is both driving and mirroring geopolitical tensions; debt fragmentation could lead to a debt crisis; payment fragmentation could increase instability and erode the role of the US dollar; and the cost of fragmentation could range from 1.2 to 12% of global GDP.
Shares in another Californian bank tumbled a further 60% after hours. Bloomberg notes Wall Street now sees this crisis has further to run, and further industry consolidation is likely. Those who join dots and see political economy have been saying ‘Gosbank’ for some time.
US regulators will now force hedge funds to disclose loss-making positions in three days, or “as soon as practicable,” not every three months: that’s more admin and may reduce trading.
Oil prices collapsed a further 7%, offering hopes goods deflation can offset services inflation: so, Fed hikes are *working as planned*, but many don’t see the plan or don’t like it. Especially Mid-East oil producers snubbing the US and US dollar while building 400m * 400m *400m giant cubes encasing ski-slope-sized TV sets.
Iran seized a second oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz in a week. Once, that would have seen oil up 7%: perhaps they need to seize two at once now to get the same effect given the US dollar yields 5.25%? Yet this is more evidence of emerging structural supply-side shocks, even if economists can’t find Hormuz on a map or in their inflation models.
Russia said Ukraine was behind a Kremlin drone assassination attempt on President Putin. As I said with Nord Stream, it doesn’t matter who blew it up: what matters is we are in a world where someone did – a fact most economists oddly see as exogenous to inflation models. If this was a Ukrainian attack, we will get massive Russian escalation – former President Medvedev has spoken of ‘taking out’ President Zelenskiy and his ‘clique’. If it was Russian maskirovka operation, the same is still true.
Bloomberg’s Shuli Ren said ‘Don’t Bother Investing in China Unless You’re Chinese’, adding that only a local can properly circumvent the country’s infamous firewall, and that even asset managers in Hong Kong no longer have a clear picture of the mainland.
Limiting the flow of advanced technology to the Chinese Government by strengthening export control laws and identifying opportunities for new sanctions.
Curtailing the flow of investment to the Chinese Government by screening investments in key sectors to block US capital from going to Chinese companies.
Securing domestic economic investment beyond the CHIPS and Science Act to back biotech and biomanufacturing, while identifying other key areas of technology to fund.
Underscoring US commitment to economic allies to remain the preferred economic partner of the vast global majority, while challenging China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Safeguarding US allies’ and partners’ security and maintaining our strategic alliances, including further aiding Taiwan’s defence planning.
Three reports eviscerated the US military’s preparedness for a Great Power conflict where heavy losses could be taken without the ability to rearm again. Hal Brands, in ‘How the American War Machine Ran Out of Gas’, underlines defence spending used to be twice as high as it is now and that US allies must help fill that gap; another points to ludicrous practice over F-35 contracts; a third that US shipyards can’t build destroyers fast enough. No military hegemony, ultimately no FX hegemony. So expect lots of rearmament ahead, folks.
However, there was no movement towards resolving the looming US debt ceiling, just apocalyptic warnings of what happens if it is hit.
What else is the above but steady escalation in our global metacrisis on multiple conflating fronts? I don’t expect that message to get through to most in markets with their myopic mono-focus on this, that, or the other. Regardless, it will be transmitted to them in turn, painfully, over the course of 2023, and likely for many years after that.
This truly is the ‘possible pause’ that does not refresh.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Doorknob! He could always do a futures contract for future delivery
He is a total dunce head!
(zerohedge)
Biden Delays SPR Refill Again, Now Says Must Wait For Storage Repairs First
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 01:25 PM
Last November, when there were still tens of millions of extra barrels in the US Strategic Political Petroleum Reserve, we joked that not only would the historic drain by the Biden administration not reverse – contrary to what the senile occupant of the White House would read from his cue cards on occasion – but that the drains would continue until the salt caverns collapsed.
It was supposed to be a joke, but like everything else relating to the Biden admin, it may not have been.
That’s because according to Bloomberg, months and months after vowing it would start refilling the SPR when oil dropped to a price where energy tzar Hunter Biden would be waving it in, the Biden administration “plans to begin purchasing oil to replenish the nation’s emergency reserve after completing maintenance work later this year.”
Here a bunch of questions immediately pop up: why not buy oil futures today, for delivery 1 year from now, or 2 years, or 3 years, etc. After all, that was precisely what Biden promised to US energy producers who, it turns out, were absolutely correct not to believe the lies. Or, for that matter, what maintenance is required to the deep underground salt caverns where the SPR is stored? Did the White House’s aggressive SPR drain truly damage them – as we joked last November it would.
In other words, just another excuse not to do so now, because even the absolute amateurs that surround Biden know that with the oil market the most illiquid it has ever been, the moment a government bid steps in, oil will soar back into the triple digits.
“The SPR remains the largest in the world and DOE remains committed to refilling the SPR in a manner that will deliver the best value for American taxpayers and protect US national (and economic) security interests, while abiding by congressional mandates and undertaking necessary maintenance that is also part of good stewardship,” the Energy Department lied on Tuesday, but since few are aware that China’s SPR is now far bigger than the US equivalent, it’s not like anyone will counter.
In addition to direct purchases, the department said part of its strategy for replenishing the reserve includes a return of oil from previous exchanges requested by refiners facing disruptions earlier this year and avoiding “unnecessary sales unrelated to supply disruptions.”
While the department cancelled some 140 million barrels of oil sales mandated by Congress via a government funding bill last year, the past few weeks have seen continued SPR drains anywhere between 1.5 and 2 million barrels, the latest attempt to lower oil prices and offset the recent OPEC+ output cut.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Wildfires burning in Alberta continues forcing 30,000 to flee and that is curtailing oil and gas production
(zerohedge)
Wildfires In Canada Force 30,000 To Flee, Slash Oil And Gas Production
MONDAY, MAY 08, 2023 – 06:40 PM
Canada’s top oil-producing province, Alberta, declared a state of emergency on Saturday as more than 100 wildfires raged across the region.
On Monday, there were 100 wildfires, 29 of which were classified as out of control. Evacuation orders have been posted for 30,000 residents in the province.
Bloomberg said numerous companies shut down 234,000 barrels a day of oil and gas production.
The fires are striking Canada’s main natural gas production region, including the prolific Montney and Duvernay formations, an area studded with wells and processing plants and criscrossed by pipelines. The region also is a major center for light oil production, and the disruptions have sent prices for some local grades of crude surging.
Edmonton Mixed Sweet’s discount to West Texas Intermediate narrowed by more than a third to $2.50 a barrel, the smallest discount since March, and Syncrude Sweet’s premium grew to $3.50 a barrel, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Condensate’s discount narrowed to $3.20 a barrel.
One community under evacuation order as of Sunday was Fox Creek, a major center for light oil and gas drillers. Energy facilities and local residents were also being evacuated in Grande Prairie, provincial officials said. -Bloomberg
NatGas for spot delivery at the Alberta Energy Co.’s hub jumped 34% to the equivalent of $2 per million British thermal units due to disruptions.
The list (courtesy of Bloomberg) is the following energy companies whose operations have been impacted by out-of-control fires.
Crescent Point Energy Corp. has shut in 45,000 barrels a day of production in the Kaybob Duvernay region, though the company said it has seen no damage to its assets.
Vermilion Energy Inc. temporarily shut 30,000 barrels a day of production, but added in a statement that initial assessments indicate minimal damage to key infrastructure.
Tourmaline Oil Corp. has closed down nine South and West Deep Basin gas processing facilities as nearby fires expanded and new wildfires rapidly emerged.
Paramount Resources Ltd. has shut the equivalent of about 50,000 barrels a day of oil production as of May 5 as a precaution and because of disruptions to third-party infrastructure, the company said Sunday. Its operations in the Grande Prairie and Kaybob regions are being affected.
TC Energy Corp. halted two compressor stations on its Nova Gas system nearest to active wildfires, the company said in an email Sunday. Other sections of the system and other networks continue to operate safely. The company is keeping workers away from facilities near active blazes unless necessary.
Tidewater Midstream & Infrastructure Ltd. shut its Brazeau River Complex, a gas processing facility, west of Edmonton and evacuated all personnel, the company said in an email.
Cenovus Energy Inc. has shut down some production and halted plants in some areas, a company spokesperson said.
The government-owned Trans Mountain Pipeline, the sole link carrying Canadian crude to the Pacific coast, is still in operation but the company has deployed mitigation measures, including a perimeter sprinkler system at its Edson pump station, and is ready to deploy additional protection measures if needed, the company said.
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. had to shut in less than 300 barrels a day of production after the gas processing plants operated by Tidewater and another run by Keyera Corp. went out of operation due to the blazes, Chief Executive Officer Brian Schmidt said by phone.
Alberta’s oil and gas production has been impacted by wildfires before. In 2016, about 1 million barrels a day of output were shut down due to fires in the province’s eastern region.
END
PAKISTAN
Trouble ahead as former Prime Minister Khan arrested. Expect civil war in this deeply divided country:
(zerohedge)
All Hell Breaks Loose In Nuclear-Armed Pakistan After Imran Khan’s Arrest
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 11:25 AM
All hell is breaking loose in Pakistan, amid fears there could be a slide into widescale civil unrest or even full-blown civil war, after on Tuesday the former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested and taken into police custody while he was entering the Islamabad High Court for a hearing in a case.
The 70-year-old cricketer-turned-politician has been pursued in court filings by Pakistan’s anti-corruption agency, but the dramatic move to actually detain Khan is a huge and unprecedented escalation, threatening to unleash mayhem in the streets of the nuclear-armed country.
His party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), immediately called for mass protests, which quickly exploded across multiple cities and in front police and military locations, including in the capital Islamabad, but also in Lahore, Karachi, Gujranwala, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, Multan, Peshawar, and Mardan – according to international reports.
Viral images and video of Khan being escorted by security forces in riot control gear and whisked away in an armored van are fueling anger in the streets. A government statement has said the arrest was “for the crime of corruption”.
According to Al Jazeera, “Khan has been slapped with more than 100 cases – including corruption, ‘terrorism’ and even blasphemy – since he was removed from power last April through a parliamentary vote of no confidence.”
Heightening the risk of national instability is the fact that many of Khan’s well-placed enemies are top military and intelligence officials:
Khan’s detention came after Pakistan’s military spokesman, Maj. Gen. Ahmed Sharif, released an usually sharply worded statement against the former prime minister, warning him not to malign a serving officer. That followed recent allegations made by Khan that a military intelligence official was leading behind a plot to kill him.
Sharif described Khan’s claims as “highly irresponsible and baseless allegations” which were “unfortunate, deplorable and unacceptable.”
To add insult to the allegations, Khan referred to the military intelligence official as “Dirty Harry,” from an old Clint Eastwood movie — allegations he doubled down on Tuesday before reaching the courthouse.
A Pakistani political analyst has explained to Al Jazeera that “Ever since this whole process started with ousting of the former prime minister 13 months ago, it has become crystal clear that the ruling political elite as well as the establishment in the country did not want Imran khan back in any capacity, in any ruling capacity.”
This suggests significant civil unrest to come: “They will go to whatever lengths to ensure this happens,” the analyst, Zeeshan Salahuddin, said.
One pro-Khan, opposition social media user had this to say: “This is unprecedented in Pakistani history. Pakistani people are taking the protests to the Army — the real rulers of the country — finally.”
Already there are reports of casualties from the protests coming out of Pakistan on Tuesday, also with reports and footage showing that demonstrators have stormed a Pakistani Army headquarters.
Footage shows people approaching a high-secure entry area of the Pakistan Army HQ in Rawalpindi, in an unprecedented and highly volatile situation…
There are also widespread reports circulating on social media that in some locales police and military might be using live fire to put quell the unrest.
The pro-Khan crowds could target government buildings and ministries next. Al Jazeera is reporting that “In Lahore, protesters gathered outside the former prime minister’s Zaman Park residence and blocked the adjacent roads by burning tires.”
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0982 DOWN 0.0015
USA/ YEN 134.77 DOWN 0.316 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2622 UP 0.0009
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3379 UP .0008 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 8 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 37.33 PTS OR .40%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 429.45 PTS OR 2.12%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .21`% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 429.45 PTS OR 2.12 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.33 PTS OR 1.10%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.21%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 292.94 PTS OR 1.01%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2031.75
silver:$25.56
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 101.28 UP 13 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN.(6.9206)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9262
TURKISH LIRA: 19.52 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.421…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.509% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.828 DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4,026% UP 2 in basis points.
USA dollar index, 101.49 UP 34 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 25.57 points or 0.33%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 12.90PTS OR 0.08%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 53.68 PTS OR 0.72%
Spain IBEX DOWN 44.20 PTS OR 0.48%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 79.74 PTS OR 0.29%
WTI Oil price 71.77 12: EST
Brent Oil: 75.42 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 78.18/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 0//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.345 UP 3 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.886UP 11 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0966 DOWN 0.0030 OR 30 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2620 UP .0008 or 8 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.8920% UP 9 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.23 UP 0.139 //YEN UP 14 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3389 UP .0007 CDN dollar, DOWN 7 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 73.60
Brent OIL: 77.30
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 3.526%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS PTS to 3.8520%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 4.0284%
USA dollar index: 101.40 UP 24 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.52
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 78.18 DOWN 0 AND 0/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 56.88 PTS OR 0.17%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 90.53 PTS OR 0.68%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.64 UP 0.66 PTS (3.89)%
GLD: $189.02 UP 1.33 OR 0.71%
SLV/ $23.48 DOWN 0.01 OR 0.04%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Bullion & Black Gold Bid; Regional Banks Skid Ahead Of CPI
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 04:00 PM
A quiet day with no notable macro was just what the doctor ordered ahead of tomorrow’s CPI-inspired likely chaos.
However, no progress at all on the debt ceiling debacle, the growing risk of civil war in nuclear-armed Pakistan, Italy pulling out of China’s BRI, no signals at all that the US banking crisis is over in any way, and hawkish comments from Fed’s Williams:
“What we’re signaling is we’re going to make sure that we achieve our goals and going to assess what’s happening in the economy and make the decision based on that data,” he said. “And if additional policy firming is appropriate, then we’ll do that.”
“I do not see in my baseline forecast any reason to cut interest rates this year,” he said, adding that the economy began the year on a solid footing and he saw two-sided risks to the outlook. “In my forecast we need to keep restrictive stance of policy in place for quite some time.”
Debt Ceiling anxiety remains extreme to say the least with the T-Bill curve insanely kinked… 5/23 3.97 to 6/6 5.34!!
The Dow managed to ramp up to gains on the day (helped by BA) but faded in the last few minutes. The S&P and the Nasdaq ended worst with most of the majors at their lows of the day…
Regional banks ended lower (rejecting an odd buying panic that hit around 1330ET)…
PACW had another chaotic squeezy day…
Shorts were squeezed once again after an ugly open…
Source: Bloomberg
0-DTE traders dragged 1-Day VIX up in line with VIX as they anticipate tomorrow’s CPI…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, 0-DTE traders dumped calls aggressively into tomorrow’s CPI…
Despite a very strong 3Y auction, yields ended higher on the day – though the belly outperformed (2Y +2.5bps, 5Y unch, 30Y +2.5bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y Yield pushed back above 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar extended yesterday afternoon’s rally, back up to one-week highs (resistance)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was flat, hovering around $27500, as Ordinals volume surged…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI spiked (around the time of headline about refilling SPR – nothing new), extending gains to two-week-highs (after some weakness intraday)…
Gold also extended its rebound from $2000 (spot)
Finally, bear in mind that the market is pricing in notably less volatility tomorrow (across CPI) than it has for last few months…
As SpotGamma notes, NDX straddle was pricing a ~1.1% move – quite a decline from the +2%’s of the last 6 months.
And after that, vol is expected to drop even more after that…
Source: Bloomberg
… as the stock market remains fearless into the X-Date.
b) early morning trading: regional banks
Regional Bank Bonuses To Plunge 20% As Big Firms To Pay More
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 10:30 AM
A new report from compensation consultant Johnson Associates Inc. expects the 2023 bonus season for Wall Street to vary significantly between regional lenders and major banks.
Johnson Associates expects banker bonuses to slide as much as 20% at regional banks because of all the recent turmoil. Meanwhile, major banks’ incentive pay could surge by as much as 20%.
“We have the have and have-nots — big banks are doing great, small banks are suffering,” Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates, told Bloomberg. He said the regional bank turmoil and depositor flight from small to large banks would impact how bonuses are calculated based on performance at the end of the year.
Major banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., have performed well in a higher interest rate environment. This was vastly different than regional banks that have been battered by withdrawals, equity collapses, and loss of faith by market participants.
The report comes as bankers at big banks already experienced a 26% drop in bonuses last year due to a freeze in merger and acquisition activity because of the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in four decades.
There are some bright spots in the bonuses forecast for bankers, but regional bankers will see the most significant declines in compensation.
Also, the finance sector has reduced headcount and frozen hiring to reduce costs while credit crunch and recession risks are increasing. “People are more cautious on hiring, and firms have cut back significantly, with headcount flat to trending down,” Johnson said.
END
II) USA DATA/
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
revenues decline by a huge 30% in large cities in New York state, California, and New Jersey. One of the reasons is the fact that many are moving out of the red states and into blue states. The other reason is that many are doing work at home
(zerohedge0
America’s Largest Transit Systems Reeling As Revenues Continue To Crater
MONDAY, MAY 08, 2023 – 10:00 PM
Public transit systems across the country are reeling from a dramatic decline in ridership which has left some of the largest cities with less than70% of their pre-pandemic traffic – causing a financial rut that’s led to transit CEOs pressing city and state officials for more funding streams and taxes, Politico reports.
Despite being rescued with $55 billion in federal Covid relief money in 2020 and 2021 after watching their farebox revenue evaporate, 10 of the nation’s largest transit systems will soon need to find billions of dollars a year to stay afloat. Public transportation executives from Los Angeles to New Jersey are warning of a fiscal cliff in just a few years that risks raising ticket prices and cutting service on workers who can least afford it. And even though New York lawmakers struck a deal last week to fill a transit budget gap, it’s not enough to avoid a fare hike.
“It’s a new day for transit in terms of ridership, the people delivering the services — from drivers to mechanics,” former Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood told the outlet.
According to the report, pleas to Congress for another round of relief have been met with lukewarm reception. At the state level, the issue is creating a divide between rural and urban state lawmakers.
According to Lieber, who runs the nation’s largest system of its kind, the agency has struggled to provide “basic, pretty good services” to commuters – to the point where they were able to convince state lawmakers to provide recurring revenue in the state budget.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has chimed in, deflecting on the issue with a wait-and-see approach.
“Even three years since the shutdowns began, we have not yet landed at our new normal,” he told Politico. “We’re not going back to 2019. But I also think today’s norm is not where all of this ends, in terms of commuting patterns.”
In San Francisco, BART ridership is down 60% compared to pre-pandemic levels. In order to turn things around, the transit system is contemplating boosting service on nights and weekends – however the system’s budget constraints means that it would need to reduce less-popular services elsewhere.
“You have to take from something, and it’s very difficult to take service away from riders,” said spokeswoman Alicia Trost. “But we think there are things we can do.”
Federal money typically accounts for about 15 percent of transit budgets. And the federal infrastructure package Congress passed in 2021 committed $39 billion in new funding for mass transit, but much of it is earmarked for major capital work instead of operations.
That’s put pressure on statehouses, where fights for cash have gotten partisan as well as geographic as rural lawmakers from both parties question why their constituents should pony up to make life easier in cities that already seem to have it all.
…
In classic California fashion, the interconnected transit agencies in nine Bay Area counties are planning to put the funding question to voters by way of a ballot measure, said Rebecca Long, director of legislation and public affairs at the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, which represents the group. It would establish a tax increase to cover all or a portion of their financial shortfall — but since it won’t get a vote until 2026, the commission is asking the state for funding to keep the agencies afloat until then. -Politico
According to Peter Rogoff, former FTA head who also served as CEO for Seattle’s Sound Transit, agencies can’t just abandon transit-dependent commuters.
“Folks should avoid sweeping assumptions and turning deaf ears to the needs of the transit industry based on what could be a temporary predicament, he said.
END
Two commentaries on the Debt Ceiling:
(Li EpochTimes)
43 Senate Republicans Say No To Increasing Debt Limit Without Substantive Spending Cuts
A group of 43 Republicans in the U.S. Senate said on May 6 that they “oppose raising the debt ceiling without substantive spending and budget reforms,” coalescing around their House counterparts ahead of the White House meeting over the federal debt ceiling amid a monthslong political standoff.
“The Senate Republican conference is united behind the House Republican conference in support of spending cuts and structural budget reform as a starting point for negotiations on the debt ceiling,” the group of Republicans, led by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), said in a letter addressed to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-Calif.).
Almost all Republicans in the Senate signed the letter, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
“It is now clear that Senate Republicans aren’t going to bail out Biden and Schumer, they have to negotiate,” Lee said in the statement accompanying the letter.
“I thank my colleagues for joining my effort to emphasize this point in the clearest possible terms.”
President Joe Biden is scheduled to sit down with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on May 9 to discuss a path forward on the federal debt ceiling. But the White House has signaled that there would be little compromise from the president.
“[Biden] is not going to negotiate on the debt ceiling,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on May 2.
However, the president “is willing to have a separate conversation about their spending, what they want to do with the budget,” she said.
Biden and McCarthy have been locked in a standoff over raising the debt ceiling since January. The president has called on Congress to pass a hike to the government’s borrowing limit without conditions.
McCarthy made it clear that he wouldn’t consider increasing the debt ceiling unless the president agreed to limit future spending.
“No clean debt ceiling is going to pass the House,” McCarthy said on April 26. “We can’t do that to our children.”
House Republicans passed their own solution to the debt crisis on April 26. The bill—the Limit, Save, Grow Act—would lift the federal borrowing cap by $1.5 trillion while enacting sweeping spending cuts, which Democrats have rejected.
Schumer began navigating to advance a clean, two-year extension of the debt limit in the Senate last week. He told reporters that Democrats would decide whether to put the extension up for a vote after the upcoming White House meeting.
Schumer, McConnell, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) have also been invited to the debt limit meeting at the White House on May 9.
Surprise, Americans Divided On Debt-Ceiling Standoff
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 06:55 AM
As President Biden is about to welcome Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to discuss the debt ceiling at the White House on Tuesday, there seems to be little hope for a quick resolution of what threatens to become a drawn-out game of political chicken.
As Statista’s Felix Richter reports, with the country’s economic wellbeing at stake, both parties could hardly be further apart, as Republicans push for steep spending cuts while President Biden has been urging Congress to raise the debt limit with no strings attached.
When the country was at a similar crossroads in the fall of 2021, the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) published a blog post detailing what “Life After Default” could look like.
“A default would fundamentally hinder the Federal government from serving the American people,” the CEA found, while also anticipating “serious and protracted financial and economic effects.”
In conclusion, the CEA urged lawmakers to avoid “the self-inflicted economic ruin” and to refrain from partisan brinkmanship. “The debt ceiling is not and should not be used as a political football. The consequences are too great.”
Despite all warnings against the potentially catastrophic consequences of a default, the current debate over the debt ceiling has turned into yet another partisan issue that divides the country roughly in half.
According to a recent poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of The Economist, Democrats widely support raising the debt ceiling, while the majority of Republicans think that Congress shouldn’t raise the limit.
end
As I outlined to you on Friday: the treasury will run out of cash by this Friday evening;
US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: OUR PROJECTION IS THAT AS EARLY AS JUNE 1ST, THE TREASURY WILL RUN OUT OF CASH AND EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES TO PAY GOVERNMENT’S DEBTS – CNBC INTERVIEW.
Actually according to the 168 billion they have left and the average daily expenditures they only have until this Friday before they run out of funds. I’m still waiting for an update with today’s expenditure(s).
New car affordability is becoming less and less amid soaring auto loan rates
(zerohedge)
New Vehicle Affordability ‘Challenging’ Amid Soaring Auto Loan Rates
MONDAY, MAY 08, 2023 – 07:20 PM
Cox Automotive reports that auto prices are currently at near-record levels, with the average monthly payment for new cars reaching $754 in March due to a high-rate environment. The latest data on auto loan interest rates show a continued surge, worsening the affordability crisis and forcing more car buyers to gravitate to used car markets.
The Federal Reserve just updated its finance rate for new auto 60-month loans that printed 7.48% in February. These levels have not been seen since November 2007 and are shy of the record high of 7.82% from August 2006.
Since 1Q22, the new auto 60-month loan rate jumped nearly 3% from 4.5% to 7.48%. And 2% from the start of the third quarter. We call these parabolic moves interest rate shocks for consumers.
On top of high borrowing costs, Kelley Blue Book data shows the average price of a new car hit $48,000 in March, a 30% jump from the same month last year.
“The idea of a new car in every American’s driveway is not the world we live in,” Charlie Chesbrough, a senior economist at Cox, recently told Bloomberg.
After 24 months of negative real wage growth, obliterating mainly households of the lower/medium tier of the consumer base, the new reality is that new vehicle affordability is only for the wealthy.
It’s a hard reality for many to grasp, but some could care less about a new vehicle in their driveway or parking spot at a multi-family unit. Instead, they struggle to pay rent and put food on the table in a higher-rate environment.
Meanwhile, automakers are selling fewer vehicles in the US versus pre-pandemic sales trends — about 13.9 million in 2022 compared with 17 million in 2019. However, Cox Automotive said 2022 revenues for automakers are $15 billion higher than in 2019, primarily because new vehicles are more expensive.
Squeezing new affordable cars out of the market will drive even more buyers to used car markets.
“Even with three consecutive months of improvement, affordability challenges are limiting access to the new-vehicle market by lower income and lower credit quality buyers,” Cox economist Jonathan Smoke. He added:
“Subprime lending in the new market has decreased substantially since 2019, and deep subprime has disappeared. This trend induces automakers to focus on profitable products for consumers who can afford to buy, which keeps less affluent consumers out of the new-vehicle market altogether and limits what is available and possible in the used market for years to come.”
This might indicate used car prices will stay elevated despite Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index topping out in early 2022.
end
Anger reaches high level as Adams plans migrant relocation to the suburbs
(zerohedge)
NIMBY New York Suburbs Panic After NYC Mayor Plans Migrant Relocation
MONDAY, MAY 08, 2023 – 10:40 PM
Rich New York suburbanites are in a huff over a plan by NYC Mayor Eric Adams to relocate migrants to hotels in their towns.
The NIMBY New Yorkers reacted with shock and dismay at Adams’ Friday statement that he plans to pay to house around 300 migrant men in two hotels in Rockland and Orange Counties, after the illegal immigrants were bused up from Texas and other places.
On Saturday, Rockland officials began a campaign to stop Adams’ plan, according to the NY Times.
“It felt like they were trying to do a Friday night drop,” said Orangetown town supervisor Teresa Kenney, whose town is in Rockland County. She says she learned about the plan just hours before Adams announced it.
“I feel like the mayor called me to check a box so he couldn’t be criticized for not talking to us.”
A state of emergency was issued in Rockland Country on Saturday by executive Ed Day, a Republican, who said that municipalities could not transport or house migrants in his county without permission.
“Whatever we need to do to stop this, we will do,” he said on Sunday, adding that the county is prepared to issue fines up to $2,000 per violation per day to any hotel that takes in migrants through NYC’s program.
“They’re basically dumping them into a county where we’re not prepared for them,” he said.
New York State Association of Counties Executive Director Stephen Acquario said: “This is a homelessness problem, and it’s largely the fault of the federal government,” adding “And here we have the lowest unit of government cleaning up the mess of the United States.”
END
The China silk road initiative plus countries doing every thing in their power not to use the dollar is having its effect on West coast port dominance. Trade is shifting east
(zerohedge)
West Coast Port Dominance Cracks As Containerized Flows Shift East
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 05:45 AM
US importers are reevaluating where they ship goods into the US after decades of relying solely on US West Coast ports as a gateway to the Heartland. They’re now betting that US South And East ports can offer reduced risk, time, and transportation costs.
The share of all US containerized cargo handled by Southern California’s ports topped 40% over the last several decades as imports between the US and Asia surged. But the shifting winds in trade have forced importers to ditch Asia to Los Angeles and Long Beach routes and opt for end destination ports in Houston to the Mid-Alantic area.
Bloomberg explained more about the shifting trade winds :
“But it’s getting supercharged by simmering West Coast port labor talks, the near-shoring of factory production amid rising tensions with China, and US population growth shifting to the Sunbelt states.”
A combination of pandemic-era bottlenecks and negotiations between thousands of West Coast dockworkers nearing the one-year mark has been the most recent driving force for importers to rejigger supply chains to the South and East.
Inbound cargo volumes at the Port of Los Angeles have plunged from peak levels a year ago.
Some top importers, who once heavily relied on West Coast ports, are sending shipments to Gulf and East Coast ports, according to RILA, whose members include Best Buy Co., Target Corp., and Home Depot Inc.
Ports located in Savannah, Ga., Houston, and Charleston, SC, have all seen increasing containerized imports. Also, Mid-Atlantic ports, as well as New York-New Jersey ports, are experiencing more activity. Source: Bloomberg
Importers are spreading out their supply chains. Many of them were devastated during the pandemic bottleneck in LA and Long Beach, which increased shipping time by weeks and sparked shortages of products at major retailers during the pandemic. Companies hope diversifying their port of entry in the US will avert future bottlenecks at ports.
The West Coast’s dominance in containerized shipping is cracking. Supply chains are evolving, and importers are shifting to ports on the East Coast.
end
Americans’ Confidence In Fed Chair Hits Record Low As Inflation Batters Households
TUESDAY, MAY 09, 2023 – 02:05 PM
American households, battered with two years of negative real wage growth and observing a flurry of news headlines about regional bank failures and increasing recession risk, are losing faith in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s ability to ‘do the right thing for the US economy.’ The skepticism is driven by their increasing belief that the economy might be headed for turmoil.
A new Gallup poll published Tuesday shows only 36% of respondents had a “great deal” or “fair amount” of confidence in Powell to do the right thing for the economy – the lowest rating in his six years as the captain of the world’s largest economy (also the lowest rating of any Fed Chair). This figure is below Yellen’s 37% in 2014 and Ben Bernanke’s 39% in 2012. Someone grab Powell a liferaft because he’s sinking quickly in the eyes of the American people.
Powell’s confidence with respondents peaked at 58% when he unleashed trillions of dollars in stimulus checks for Americans. His confidence rating has since tumbled precipitously as the free money expired more than a year ago and inflation emerged, causing tremendous pain for households.
The loss of confidence isn’t limited to Powell. Respondents increasingly doubt President Biden’s and the Democratic lawmakers’ ability to conduct the best policy for a thriving economy. In comparison, Republicans recorded the smallest change in confidence lost in percentage terms.
These figures come ahead of a presidential election cycle. Biden’s confidence of 35% is the lowest of any president since George W. Bush received 34% during the 2008 meltdown.
Americans are infuriated by US economic leaders for sparking 24 months of negative real wage growth through money printing that has paralyzed low/medium-tier households.
Gallup’s survey also found Democratic congressional leaders’ 34% confidence rating is the lowest on record.
And by political party, Democrats expressed high confidence in their leaders, with the lowest ratings for Republican lawmakers. Meanwhile, Republicans are confident in the Republican leaders in Congress but no one else.
“The pattern is fairly typical, with supporters of the president’s party more confident in the president, Fed chair and treasury secretary. This is the case even for Fed chairs who — like Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and Alan Greenspan — have served presidents from both major parties,” Gallup said.
Here’s Gallup’s bottom line:
“Historically, Americans’ confidence in their leaders on economic matters has risen and fallen depending on the health of the economy. As such, if the economy falls into a recession later this year, confidence in political leaders may erode further. However, if the economy improves and avoids a recession, Americans’ confidence may be restored.”
A recession is certainly not what the Biden administration needs before or entering 2024… but being able to blame Powell would certainly help… and don’t forget, Biden claims he has ‘created more jobs’…
Don’t get us started on the ‘fact-checks’ on that pure propaganda.
Robert Kennedy Jr: the CIA was “definitely involved in the murder” of JFK and Bobby Kennedy. This is a good read!
(watson/SummitNews)
RFK Jr.: CIA “Definitely Involved In The Murder” Of JFK
Once again displaying that he is not afraid to go on the offensive against the Deep State, Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Junior stated this past weekend that he believes the CIA was “involved in the murder” of his uncle and has presided over a “60-year cover-up”.
During an interview, host Jason Calacanis asked Kennedy “Do you believe they (the CIA) were involved in the murder of your uncle?”
Kennedy instantly responded “They were definitely involved in the murder and the 60-year cover-up,” adding “They’re still not releasing, you know the papers that legally they have to release.”
RFK Jr. also noted that his father Bobby Kennedy’s belief about assassination was that the CIA was responsible, noting that President Kennedy’s brother even called Langley and asked “did your people do this?”
During his campaign announcement last month, RFK Jr. spoke about his uncle vowing to “take the CIA and shatter it into a thousand pieces and scatter it into the wind” after the disastrous Bay of Pigs incident.
RFK Jr. emphasised that JFK had concluded before he was assassinated that “the function of the intelligence agencies had become to provide the military industrial complex with a constant pipeline of war.”
Kennedy Jr. promised to “let loose” on those who have attempted to silence him for 18 years, asserting “This is what happens when you censor somebody for 18 years. I’ve got a lot to talk about.”
The New York Post revealed Monday that The White House is blocking its reporters from attending Joe Biden’s public appearances, suggesting that it is doing so in retaliation for the outlet reporting on “his relatives’ foreign dealings.”
The New York Post reported that despite there being 20 empty seats in the South Court Auditorium on Monday at Biden’s only public appearance, the outlet’s request for a press credential was denied.
The Newspaper intimated that it was due to it being at the forefront of reporting on the Hunter Biden laptop and shady foreign money deals.
Biden appeared Monday with Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg to gibber through comments on flight delays and cancelations.
The Post reports:
The White House press office barred The Post from attending President Biden’s only daytime public event Monday as federal prosecutors near a decision on criminally charging first son Hunter Biden for tax fraud and other crimes.
The Post has closely covered the president’s ties to his relatives’ foreign dealings and first reported in October 2020 on files from Hunter’s abandoned laptop that link Joe Biden to ventures in China and Ukraine.
Biden, who falsely characterized The Post’s reporting as Russian disinformation, appeared with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to talk about airline policies in the White House-adjacent Eisenhower Executive Office Building
In a Monday email, White House staff informed The Post: “We are unable to accommodate your credential request to attend the Investing in Airline Accountability Remarks on 5/8. The remarks will be live-streamed and can be viewed at WH.gov. Thank you for understanding. We will let you know if a credential becomes available.”
The email does not claim that the exclusion is due to “space limitations” — an excuse that was used until recently to justify the press office’s mysterious prescreening of reporters let into large presidential events, which under past administrations were open to all journalists on White House grounds.
It is odd that Biden’s handlers would bar the New York Post or any press from events, given that he never answers any questions anyway, with Monday being no different
end
Battles Rage Over Biden’s Clean Energy Projects As The Size And Cost Jump
County-by-county battles are raging as wind and solar projects balloon in size, edge closer to cities and encounter mounting pushback in communities from Niagara Falls to the Great Plains and beyond. Projects have slowed. Even in states with a long history of building renewables, developers don’t know if they can get local permits or how long it might take.
In Kansas, wind power grew rapidly for two decades and supplies around 45% of the electricity generated in-state, ranking it third in the nation. But at least five counties in more-populous eastern Kansas have recently placed moratoriums or bans on new wind or solar projects, joining 18 others that already restricted wind development to preserve the tallgrass prairie ecosystem.
The U.S., though, is a patchwork of state and local governments with different rules on development, and opposition to projects has mounted for myriad reasons. Increasingly, many communities are concerned that the rapidly expanding size of wind and solar farms will irreparably alter the complexion of where they live.
In Michigan, a typical solar project once covered 60 acres but now would take up 1,200, said Sarah Mills, a senior project manager at the University of Michigan’s Graham Sustainability Institute. Ms. Mills said they may need to get smaller—and more expensive—to be more socially acceptable. A refrain emerging at community meetings she attends is, “What you’re asking our rural community to host is way more than our fair share.”
Not Over My Dead Body
There’s much more in the article about increasing opposition. That’s a free link for interested parties.
One woman was offered $10,000 to have electric lines cross her property. She turned it down. Another said “not over my dead body”.
The Line it is Drawn, the Curse it is Cast
“The line it is drawn. The curse it is cast. The slow one now will later be fast as the present now will later be past. The new order is rapidly fadin’. And the first one now will later be last, for the times they are a-changin’.”
More wind farms and solar are inevitable. But without battery storage, neither is reliable.
Natural gas, coal, and nuclear plants are not meant to be turned on and off at the whim of clouds, wind, cold fronts, and heat waves.
But here we are pushing technologies without any infrastructure remotely in place.
The Inflation Reduction Act Price Jumps From $385 Billion to Over $1 Trillion
Penn Wharton revised its estimate of the cost of the inflation reduction act significantly higher based on Biden’s actual implementation of the deal.
And when these allegedly clean energy solutions fail in the mandated time frame, a demand to do something to fix the problems is guaranteed.
This will inevitably mean the ridiculously named “Inflation Reduction Act” will lead to an even bigger boondoggle “Son of the Inflation Reduction Act.”
Obama’s Role Enriching Biden and Hillary | The Gateway Pundit | by Assistant Editor
Robert Hryniak
1:24 PM (10 minutes ago)
to
The scale of corruption in Ukraine and America boggles the mind.
It should not be a wonder that countries have lost confidence in America and its’ ship of Fools. Perhaps the bigger fool and soon to be casualty is the Federal Reserve Dollar which will blow up all central bank banking. Why? The only Central Bank with unlimited ability to print currency is the Federal Reserve itself which does currency swaps with other Central Banks in effect creating liquidity in those banks and thus the currency. Lose that and reality sets in quickly as vast printing now becomes accountable to public awareness that Swaps are not. And unlike Treasuries which is US debt, there is no accounting of what Dollar swaps the Fed does. Allowing it to operate without real oversight. With its value set booth by American output and need to settle trade in such currency. Take away the Settlement need and its value drops because it simply does not carry the same demand. The one area where such currency shines in corporate stock takeovers which are done in such currency because of the existent depth of availability of currency. Currently no other currency has the depth of ready supply and availability.
One can sure that taking away this candy will cause much chagrin as nations and their Central Banks will be judged on their ability to show demonstrative national output to give rise to value of currency. This will be the real reset of value. This is why various nations are now trading and settling their national currencies for commodities and physical goods because it sets value points based on trade and not hegemony control. Thus, causing both the Federal Reserve Dollar and American gun point hegemony to lose strength leading to isolation as rejection is established nation by nation in trade. In so doing, influence be it soft power of diplomacy ( needs to learnt) or military hegemony is reshaped. America no longer leads in as many fields of technology as it did once accelerating relevance. And is currently rudderless on foreign policy as is indicated by foreign rejection.
Fed Releases Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for 1Q – BBG 14:00 ET Fed Survey Shows Tighter Credit, Weaker Business Loan Demand Fed: Share of Banks Tightening Credit at 46% vs 44.8% Fed: Broadest Share of Banks with Weaker Loan Demand Since ‘09
ESMs declined as much as 1 3/32 on Monday. Gold rallied modestly while Bitcoin got hammered. WTI Oil and Gasoline rallied sharply. Fangs rallied sharply on Intel’s 6+% rally and Snowflake’s 3.75% jump.
ESMs opened higher when Sunday night trading began at 18:00 ET. At 19:38 ET, ESMs broke down but formed a bottom at 20:00 ET. ESMs then commenced a plodding, saw-tooth rally until they peaked at 8:07 ET. ESMs and stock then sank until 10:34 ET. Then, like the sunrise following the night, the usual suspects eagerly bought stuff for the Second Hour Reversal. ESMs rallied 12 handles by 11:09 ET.
Alas, sellers returned to unload for the European close. ESMs bottomed at the 11:30 ET European close. The ensuing rally was labored and ended when the SLOOS hit the tape. ESMs tumbled 17 handles in 17 minutes. In recent weeks, sudden sharp declines tend to enrage and motivate bulls. ESMs rallied 20 handles by 14:49 ET. Alas, there was no follow through after the impact buying.
ESMs rolled over and then broke down at 15:15 ET. Near 15:30 ET, the usual late upward manipulation began. It only produced a 7-handle ESMs gain and ended at 15:45 ET. ESMs fell into the close.
Positive aspects of previous session The NY Fang Index rallied sharply and forced Nasdaq to a modest rally
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined sharply while oil and gasoline rallied sharply Major equity indices, ex-Nasdaq, declined; the DJTA (-0.76%) was the weakest index (due to Biden)
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How bad will the US regional banking crisis be?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open:Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4134.75 Previous session High/Low: 4142.30; 4123.81
@bennyjohnson on Monday: Joe Biden’s schedule today on the verge of a total collapse of the U.S. Border – Speech about airline fees – Movie Night. Total joke.
McConnell Warns He Has No ‘Secret Plan’ to Solve Debt Crisis – BBG Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell warned he won’t come to President Joe Biden’s rescue on the debt limit by breaking a partisan deadlock as a catastrophic US default looms… https://news.yahoo.com/mitch-mcconnell-warns-no-secret-173436794.html
Senate Republicans, in an unusual display of political savvy and fortitude, have gone inert on the US debt ceiling & budget issue. After Republicans passed a debt ceiling hike and budget with spending cuts (over 10 years), the debt ceiling became an albatross for Senate Dems and Biden’s handlers.
Of course, Schumer whined about the House GOP bill and Biden issued a few lies about Republicans cutting funds for border security and veterans’ benefits. But the US debt limit problem was not Dems’ baby. They had to present a budget that would either exacerbate inflation or infuriate their dependents.
The Dems’ only hope was for another instance of Senate Republican stupidity and self-immolation. So far Mitch and his GOP Establishment cohorts have not hit the self-destruct button – like they did when Mitch and the Senate GOPe supported the $1.7T Dem/Biden Omnibus Bill in December – after the GOP took the House in November 2022, but before the new Congress was established.
GOP senators slam McConnell, Republican colleagues for supporting omnibus 12/25/22 The GOP senators had argued it would have been better to wait for the GOP to take control of the House in January to pass an omnibus bill, arguing this would have given Republicans more leverage… “Unfortunately, the arrogance of our [Senate GOP] leadership who said, ‘We know better than House members. We’re going to pass this.’ … I’m not buying it,” Johnson said. “Unfortunately, our supporters aren’t going to buy it either.” https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3787689-gop-senators-slam-mcconnell-republican-colleagues-for-supporting-omnibus/
Today – Despite the big rally in Fangs, traders will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside due to the decline in other major equity indices. The safety net for a rally is open until the CPI Report tomorrow. The S&P 500 Index traded within a 19-handle band on Monday. SPY volume yesterday was only 49.104m, the lowest volume since November 25, 2022, the day after Thanksgiving (30.545m).
The S&P 500 action and SPY volume implies that a breach of yesterday’s high or low could instigate a meaningful move. Action should be influenced by reports about today’s critical Biden-McCarthy negotiation for a debt ceiling hike and budget bill. ESMs are -4.50 at 21:00 ET.
Yellen is calling CEOs personally to warn on US debt ceiling, sources sayhttp://reut.rs/41ivpk3
Expected economic data: April NFIB Small Business Optimism 89.8; Fed Gov Jefferson 8:30 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 12:05 ET
Ex-prosecutor approached DOJ in 2018 with witness who claimed Joe Biden involved in ‘bribery’ Feds didn’t take former U.S. Attorney Bud Cummins up on his offer, but later scoured his phone records seeking his sources… The timing of the DOJ’s sweep of Cummins phone, which occurred in November 2019 as the Trump impeachment case was unfolding, may also gain new scrutiny… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/ex-prosecutor-approached-doj-2018-witness-who-claimed-joe-biden
Hunter Biden’s ex-business partner Devon Archer urged to spill Biden dirt to avoid prison The appointment of Judge Richard Sullivan on the three-judge panel in the Second Circuit Court of Appeals hearing the case Tuesday is a cruel blow, says a source close to Archer, because the Trump-appointed judge reinstated his fraud conviction after it had been overturned by District Judge Ronnie Abrams, an Obama appointee who declared “an unwavering concern that Archer is innocent.”…https://t.co/zQepeQdEYe
White House bans The Post from Biden event as Hunter indictment looms The White House press office barred The Post from attending President Biden’s only daytime public event Monday as federal prosecutors near a decision on criminally charging first son Hunter Biden for tax fraud and other crimes… https://trib.al/jxUSL8H
@elonmusk: Some individuals are a danger to themselves and society and it’s not fixable. Unfortunately, we do need to keep them in psychiatric facilities. “Normal” people are sometimes afraid that perhaps they would be falsely committed to such an institution. They do not realize how far…
Davis (CA) stabbing suspect placed on ICE detainer – According to an ICE official, Carlos Reales-Dominguez is from El Salvador and entered the United States in 2009 as an unaccompanied minor The arrest comes after a series of stabbings police described as brutal and brazen. Two happened in parks and left two people dead. A third stabbing described as similar to the second homicide left a homeless woman in the hospital… https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/davis-stabbing-suspect-ice-detainer/103-9d65369a-5f6a-4a7c-bdd3-1f191420b093
GOP Rep @laurenboebert: New York City is retrofitting airplane hangars at JFK airport and leasing out unused college dorms to deal with all the illegals that are about to arrive because of Title 42. Even CNN is now reporting what a complete disaster is about to befall our nation when Title 42 expires.
New York pol deploys police to block migrant buses, threatens to grab NYC mayor ‘by the throat’ Rockland County Executive Ed Day says NYC mayor picked ‘the wrong person to fight with’ The harsh rhetoric comes after Adams revealed a plan to send over 300 migrants to hotels in Rockland County as New York City runs out of space to host a large influx of people… https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-york-pol-deploys-police-block-migrant-buses-threatens-grab-nyc-mayor-by-throat
To repeat, it’s as if leftists and Obama-stooge Biden are purposefully trying to destroy the USA! Victor David Hanson: The woke reign of terror is beginning to lose momentum because its continuation would erode all the work of 247 years of American progress and sacrifice.
@RobertKennedyJr: Here is a picture of me with my uncle, whose wisdom affected me profoundly. Today, these words of his are especially relevant: “A nation that is afraid to let its people judge truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.” https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1655672228397064210 As a Senator, Joe Biden voted for the Assassination Records Act of 1992, requiring that all documents related to the killing of JFK be released by 2017. But President Biden is still keeping thousands of pages heavily redacted, including 44 pages related to a shadowy CIA agent and a covert program that had contact with Lee Harvey Oswald just months before my uncle was killed.
harveyorganblog.com 
