GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $10.70 TO $1945.20
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.25 AT $23.73
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1943.10
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.64
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Bitcoin morning price:, $26,145 UP 329 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $25,921 UP 104 dollars
Platinum price closing $980.75 DOWN $13.40
Palladium price; $1363,20 UP $16.35
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,587.72 DOWN 31.60 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)
BRITISH GOLD: 1540,83 DOWN 25.33 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)
EURO GOLD: 1800.40 DOWN 21.69 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,955.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/12/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 06/14/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
190 H BMO CAPITAL 8
323 C HSBC 30
323 H HSBC 9
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 3
661 C JP MORGAN 16
661 H JP MORGAN 2
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
690 C ABN AMRO 1
880 H CITIGROUP 9
TOTAL: 40 40
MONTH TO DATE: 18,062
JPMorgan stopped 18/40 contracts
FOR JUNE:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2023. CONTRACT: 40 NOTICES FOR 4000 OZ or 0.1244 TONNES
total notices so far: 18,062 contracts for 1,806200 oz (56.180 tonnes)
FOR JUNE:
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR NIL OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 423 for 2,115,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 465.754 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 3508 CONTRACTS TO 149,471 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.26 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS AN ULTRA- HUMONGOUS SIZED 5487 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH . CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: A MONSTER SIZED 2772 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.26). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3702 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 1000 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 5.0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 7.5 MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 74 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.935 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON + 5.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK(ISSUED TODAY: TOTAL ISSUED SO FAR: 7.5 MILLION OZ)// TOTAL STANDING FOR THE MONTH 4.270 MILLION OZ + 7.5 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 11.77 MILLION OZ// ) // HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) UBER =HUMONGOUS NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (5487 CONTRACTS)//CONSIDERABLE T.A.S LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE COMEX SESSION //MONDAY //
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 8 days, total 3983 contracts: OR 19.91 MILLION OZ (497 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 19.91 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 19.91 MILLION OZ//
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3508 CONTRACTS WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.26 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A TINY SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 74 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE OF 3.935 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP+5.0 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + 2.5 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK(PRIOR)//NEW TOTAL STANDING: 11.77 MILLION OZ////// .. WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 3582 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: AN EXTRA -TERRESTRIAL HUMONGOUS 5487//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (5487) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2686 CONTRACTS TO 432,912 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED – 175 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 2686 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $7.10 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE. AT 70.79 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0124 TONNE E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON.: NEW TOTAL 62.843 TONNES STANDING SO FAR // + /A HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF 5487 T.A.S. CONTRACTS/SOME FRONT END OF TAS LIQUIDATION FRIDAY ////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $7.10 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1080 OI CONTRACTS (3.359 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1606 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 432,912
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1080 CONTRACTS WITH 2686 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX//TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 1882 CONTRACTS) AND 1606 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1080 CONTRACTS OR 3.359 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1606 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2686) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 905 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 70.79 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//// NEW STANDING FALLS TO 62.843 TONNES// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUMONGOUS T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1882 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 17,292 CONTRACTS OR 1,729,200 OZ OR 53.78 TONNES IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2162 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 53.78 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 53.78/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.520% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 53,78 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3508 CONTRACTS OI TO 149,591 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 74 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 74 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 74 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 3508 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 74 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3582 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 17.91 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.26 LOSS IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.54 PTS OR 0.15% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 32.61 PTS OR 0.50% /The Nikkei closed UP 584.65 OR 1.80% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.23 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1503 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1605 /Oil DOWN TO 68.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 73.50 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2686 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 432,912 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.10 ON MONDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1606 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 1606 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1606 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 1080 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1606 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2686 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.10. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE 1882 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THIS SPELLS TROUBLE AHEAD AS ANOTHER RAID WILL SURELY BE UPON US!
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JUNE (62.843) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 62.843 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $7.10) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING A FEW SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1080 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE COMEX SESSION ON MONDAY . THE TAS ISSUED MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 3.359 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE. (70.709 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ EFP JUMP TO LONDON..NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 62.843 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $7.10
WE HAD – REMOVED 175 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1080 CONTRACTS OR 108000 OZ OR 3.359 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 196,018 poor
final gold volumes/yesterday 129,496 extremely poor
//JUNE 13/ FOR THE JUNE 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 96.453 Loomis 3 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 40 notice(s) 4000 OZ 0..1244 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 2142 contracts 214,200 oz 6.662 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 18,062 notices 1,806,200 OZ 56.180 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
Withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Loomis: 96.453 oz (3 kilobars)
Adjustments;2 all dealer to customer:
a) Out of HSBC: 10,706.283 oz
b) Out of Malca: 2411.325 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.
For the front month of JUNE we have an oi of 2182 contracts having LOST 9 contracts. We had 5 contracts served on Monday so we lost 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will not stand for gold at the comex. as these guys were EFP’d over to London where they will exercise these contracts on the T + 2 basis and take delivery over there.
The next front month after June is the non active delivery month of July. Here, July lost 6 contracts to stand at 2856 contracts.
AUGUST lost 3127 contracts down to 367,780 contracts
We had 40 contracts filed for today representing 4000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 40 contract(s) of which 2 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 16 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (18,062 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (2182 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 40 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,020,400 OZ OR 62.843 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of June.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month: No of notices filed so far (18,062) x 100 oz + (2182) [OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (40)x 100 oz} which equals 2,020,400 oz standing OR 62.843 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 62.843 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 2,055,246.664 OZ 63.92 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,912,533.064 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,654,123.196 (362.49 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 11,258,409.968 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,598,877 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 298.565 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JUNE 13//2023// THE JUNE 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 532,329.700 oz cnt Brinks Manfra . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 357,944.475 oz CNT Delaware HSBC |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 0 CONTRACT(S) (NIL OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 431 contracts (2,155,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 423 Contracts (2,115,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposits
total dealer deposit: nil oz
total dealer deposits: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We had 3 deposits customer account:
i) Into CNT 1006.610 oz
ii) Into Delaware 10,192.010 oz
iii) Into HSBC: 346,745.855 oz
total customer deposits: 357,944.475 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 142,466 million oz/273.357 million =51.94% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals 3
i) Out of Brinks: 6992.500 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 444,351.000 oz
iii) out of Manfra: 80, 986.200 oz
total withdrawals: 532,329.700 oz
adjustments: none
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 27.117 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 273.353 million oz
DEALER SILVER DROPPING FAST. (moves into the 27 million oz column)
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE /2023 OI: 431 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 2 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE LOST 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE
JULY HAD A 4752 CONTRACT LOSS TO 81,411 CONTRACTS
AUGUST LOST 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 28
SEPT HAS A GAIN OF 8094 CONTRACTS UP TO 56,491
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 82,197 very good /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday:72,471 strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 423 x 5,000 oz = 2,115,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(431) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE/2023 contract month: 423 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE (431) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates to 4.270 million oz +7.5MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL: 11.77 MILLION OZ STANDING
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
JUNE 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
JUNE 5/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $14.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
MAY 30/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 26/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 23/WITH GOLD $2.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD DESPITE THE L0SS IN PRICE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.94 TONNES
MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934,07
MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.84 TONNES
MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.70 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 9/WITH GOLD UP $9.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.77 TONNES
MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AS DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $19.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.47 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.30 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD UP $32.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FORM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.83 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.28 TONNES
APRIL 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES
APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 931.44 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 550,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ
JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.809 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN $.13 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 266,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.809 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.015 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ
MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 367,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ//
MAY 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//
MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.306 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//
MAY 25.WITH SILVER DOWN $0.32 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.606 MILLION OZ//
MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.35 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//
MAY 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//
MAY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ//
MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ
MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ/
MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ//
MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .643 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ.
MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ/
MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 3,123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ./
MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.18 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ
MAY 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.286 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ//
MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A TINY DEPOSIT OF .08 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.682 MILLION OZ//
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.602 MILLION OZ//
MAY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.876 MILLION OZ//
MAY 4/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .174 MILLION OZ INTO SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.174 MILLION OZ//
MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.070 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY;NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.264 MILLION OZ
APRIL 28/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.482 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.103 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.182 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.102 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.285 MILLION OZ
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/
CLOSING INVENTORY 465.754 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Silver Is Significantly Underpriced Given The Looming Supply Shortage
TUESDAY, JUN 13, 2023 – 03:25 PM
Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,
Given the current macroeconomic environment and the supply and demand dynamics, silver is significantly undervalued at $24 to $25 an ounce.
The bullish case for silver in the mainstream typically revolves around price inflation. There are certainly reasons to think inflation is stickier than the powers that be want to admit and that the Federal Reserve isn’t going to be able to win the inflation fight. That is bullish for both silver and gold.
But I don’t hear a lot of people in the mainstream talking about the looming supply shortage in the silver market.
In fact, the growing demand for silver in the solar power industry will likely put a significant squeeze on supply in the coming years, and the current price of silver does not reflect the likely shortages.
While the mainstream hasn’t talked much about this, people in the industry are aware of what’s going on. In an article published by Seeking Alpha, Silver Bullion Pte Ltd. CEO Gregor Gregersen mentioned that he “was intrigued by unofficial chatter about upcoming silver scarcities due to rapidly growing photovoltaic demands” during the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference.
We’re already seeing a squeeze on the supply of silver. While silver demand set records in every category in 2022, supply was flat with mine output falling by 0.6%. This resulted in a 237.7 million ounce market deficit in 2022.
It was the second consecutive annual deficit in a row. The Silver Institute called it “possibly the most significant deficit on record.” It also noted that “the combined shortfalls of the previous two years comfortably offset the cumulative surpluses of the last 11 years.”
This trend is not expected to reverse. As Gregersen noted, silver mine production has fallen due to a lack of investment.
Production cannot be materially increased over the short term as it can take over 10 years to commence new mining operations. Therefore, increased silver prices will not lead to increased mine production for a long time.”
Meanwhile, the demand for solar power is rising rapidly and that is going to drive the demand for silver significantly higher.
The International Energy Association (IEA) predicts that in 2023, investment in the solar power industry will exceed the amount of money flowing into oil production.
Due to its outstanding electrical conductivity, silver is an important element in the production of solar panels. It is used to conduct electrical charges out of the solar cell and into the system. Each solar panel only uses a small amount of silver, but with the demand for solar panels growing exponentially every year, those small amounts of silver add up.
According to a research paper by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers will likely require over 20% of the current annual silver supply by 2027. And by 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98% of the current global silver reserves.
A few years ago, analysts projected that the amount of silver used in solar panels would fall. After all, silver is expensive and there is a strong incentive to find alternatives. In fact, the amount of silver used in the production of solar panels has been reduced by about 80%. But that trend is expected to reverse. The Australian paper noted that more efficient ‘N-type’ technologies now being developed require even more silver than current ‘PERC’ cells that make up more than 80%of the current market. TOPCon and SHJ panels require 30 to 80% more silver than the older technology.
Some argue demand for silver in solar energy production will eventually flatten as the industry develops cheaper alternatives to the white metal. But according to the paper, even if the industry reduces the use of silver, demand will still increase.
The results show that the current rate of reduction in silver consumption is not sufficient to avoid increasing silver demand from the PV industry and that the transition to high-efficiency technologies including TOPCon (a more advanced N-type silicon cell technology, first scaled in 2019) and SHJ (Silicon heterojunction solar cells, which are very efficient) could greatly increase silver demand, posing price and supply risks.”
Recession worries would typically dampen industrial demand for silver, but the photovoltaic industry is essentially recession-proof due to support from governments around the world. With battling climate change a priority, it is highly unlikely investment in solar power and other green energy technologies will fall, even in the midst of an economic downturn.
All of this signals a rapid increase in silver demand in an environment of constrained supply.
Economics 101 tells you that higher demand without a corresponding increase in supply will lead to increasing prices.
Silver isn’t currently priced for this dynamic.
In fact, silver is significantly undervalued compared to gold.
The current silver-gold ratio is just over 81-1. That means it takes over 81 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1. Historically, the ratio has always returned to that mean. And when it does, it does it with a vengeance. The ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 and below 20-1 in 1979.
Historically, when the spread gets this wide, silver doesn’t just outperform gold, it goes on a massive run in a short period of time. Since January 2000, this has happened four times. As this chart shows, the snapback is swift and strong.
Gregersen wrote that it is only a matter of time before the mainstream picks up on the dynamics in the silver market.
In conclusion, the photovoltaic industry’s impending impact on silver pricing cannot be overlooked. As the silver shortages loom on the horizon, it is only a matter of time before mainstream media reports on these significant developments. Once the news spreads, we can anticipate substantial price surges in the silver market.”
Now is the time to buy while silver is effectively on sale.
END
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
another decrease in SLV’s short position
(Ed Steer)
Ed Steer: Another decrease in SLV’s short position
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-06-12 19:31Section: Daily Dispatches
7:29p ET Monday, June 12, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
The weekend edition of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest, published by GATA board member Ed Steer, is headlined “Another Decrease in SLV’s Short Position” and it’s posted in the clear at SilverSeek here:
https://silverseek.com/article/another-decrease-slvs-short-position
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD COMMENTARIES/
BRICS Gold-Backed Currency Coming in August
Tuesday, 6/13/2023 09:01
Or so this claim says…
On 22 AUGUST – about 2 months from today – the most significant development in international finance since 1971 will be unveiled, reckons Jim Rickards in The Daily Reckoning.
It involves the rollout of a major new currency that could weaken the role of the Dollar in global payments and ultimately displace the US Dollar as the leading payment currency and reserve currency.
It could happen in just a few years.
The process by which this will happen is unprecedented, and the world is unprepared for this geopolitical shock wave.
This monetary shock will be delivered by a group called the BRICS. The acronym BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
This play for global reserve currency status by the BRICS will affect world trade, direct foreign investment and investor portfolios in dramatic and unforeseen ways.
The most important development in the BRICS system concerns the expansion of BRICS membership. This has led to the informal adoption of the name BRICS+ for the expanded organization.
There are currently eight nations that have formally applied for membership and 17 others that have expressed interest in joining. The eight formal applicants are: Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The 17 countries that have expressed interest are: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.
There’s more to this list than just increasing the headcount at future BRICS meetings.
If Saudi Arabia and Russia are both members, you have two of the three largest energy producers in the world under one tent (the US is the other member of the energy Big Three).
If Russia, China, Brazil and India are all members, you have four of the seven largest countries in the world measured by landmass possessing 30% of the Earth’s dry surface and related natural resources.
Almost 50% of the world’s wheat and rice production as well as 15% of the world’s gold reserves are in the BRICS. Meanwhile, China, India, Brazil and Russia are four of the nine highest-population countries on the planet with a combined population of 3.2 billion people or 40% of the Earth’s population.
China, India, Brazil, Russia and Saudi Arabia have a combined GDP of $29 trillion or 28% of nominal global GDP. If one uses purchasing power parity to measure GDP, then the BRICS share is over 54%. Russia and China also have two of the three largest nuclear arsenals in the world (the other leader is the United States).
By every measure – population, landmass, energy output, GDP, food output and nuclear weapons – BRICS is not just another multilateral debating society. They are a substantial and credible alternative to Western hegemony.
BRICS acting together is one pole of a new multipolar or even bipolar world.
When the new currency launch is announced in August, the currency will not fall on an empty field. It will fall into a sophisticated network of capital and communications. This network will greatly enhance its chances of success.
The BRICS are also developing an optical fiber submarine telecommunications system that would connect its members. It is being developed under the name BRICS Cable. Part of the motivation for BRICS Cable is to foil spying by the US National Security Agency on message traffic carried through existing cable networks.
What’s behind this quest to ditch the Dollar? In no small part the answer is US weaponization of the Dollar through the use of sanctions.
On numerous occasions from 2007-2014, I warned US officials from the Treasury, Pentagon and intelligence community that overuse or abuse of Dollar sanctions would lead adversaries to abandon the Dollar to avoid the impact of sanctions.
Such abandonment would lead to the diluted potency of sanctions, unforeseen costs imposed on the US and eventually to the collapse of confidence in the Dollar itself. These warnings were mostly ignored.
We have now reached the first and second stages of this forecast and are dangerously close to the third.
For years, the US has used sanctions to punish nations like Iran. But the sanctions the US and its allies imposed on Russia after it invaded Ukraine last year went far beyond previous sanctions regimes. They were unprecedented.
Many other nations began to conclude that they could be next if they run afoul of the US on certain issues. And that fear has greatly accelerated the push to opt out of the Dollar system entirely.
This desire is not limited to current targets such as Russia but is shared by potential targets including China, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Argentina and many others.
The BRICS+ present a realistic effort to de-Dollarize global payments and eventually global reserves.
For years, I’ve argued that the Dollar would remain the world’s leading reserve currency for longer than most people think.
But below, I show you why a new BRICS+ currency could greatly accelerate the demise of the Dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency.
How could it happen so much faster than I previously thought?
The global desire to move away from the Dollar as a medium of exchange for international trade in goods and services is hardly new. The difference today is that it’s gone from a discussion point to a novelty to a looming reality in a remarkably short period of time.
Dubai and China have recently concluded an arrangement whereby Dubai will accept Chinese Yuan in payment for oil exports from Dubai. In turn, Dubai can use the Yuan to buy semiconductors or manufactured goods from China.
Saudi Arabia and China have been discussing similar oil- for-Yuan arrangements but nothing definitive has yet been put in place. These discussions are made complicated by Saudi Arabia’s long-standing petro-Dollar deal with the US Still, some progress along these lines is widely expected.
China and Brazil have recently reached a broad-based bilateral currency deal where each country accepts the currency of the other in trade. Meanwhile, there’s a growing strategic relationship between China and Russia as the two superpowers jointly confront the United States. In the trading relationship between the two nations, Russia can pay in Rubles for Chinese manufactured goods and other exports while China pays in Yuan for Russian energy, strategic metals and weapons systems.
Yet all these arrangements may soon be superseded by a new BRICS+ currency, which will be announced in Durban, South Africa, at the annual BRICS Leaders’ Summit Conference on Aug. 22-24.
The currency will be pegged to a basket of commodities for use in trade among members. Initially, the BRICS+ commodity basket would include oil, wheat, copper and other essential goods traded globally in specified quantities.
In all likelihood, the new BRICS+ currency would not be available in the form of paper notes for use in everyday transactions. It would be a digital currency on a permissioned ledger maintained by a new BRICS+ financial institution with encrypted message traffic to record payments due or owing by participating parties. (This is not a cryptocurrency because it is not decentralized, not maintained on a blockchain and not open to all parties without approval.)
The latest information from the BRICS working groups is that this basket valuation methodology is encountering the same problems that John Maynard Keynes encountered at the Bretton Woods meetings in 1944.
Keynes initially suggested a basket of commodities approach for a world currency he called the bancor. The difficulty is that global commodities included in any basket are not entirely fungible (there are over 70 grades of crude oil distinguished by viscosity and sulfur content among other attributes).
In the end, Keynes saw that a basket of commodities is not necessary and that a single commodity – gold – would better serve the purpose of anchoring a currency for reasons of convenience and uniformity.
Based on the impracticality of commodity baskets as uniform stores of value, it appears likely that the new BRICS+ currency will be linked to a weight of gold.
This plays to the strengths of BRICS members Russia and China, who are the two largest gold producers in the world and are ranked sixth and seventh respectively among the 100 nations with gold reserves.
These and related developments are frequently touted as the “end of the Dollar as a reserve currency.” Such comments reveal a lack of understanding as to how the international monetary and currency systems actually work.
The key mistake in almost all such analyses is a failure to distinguish between the respective roles of a payment currency and a reserve currency. Payment currencies are used in trade for goods and services. Nations can trade in whatever payment currency they want – it doesn’t have to be Dollars.
Reserve currencies (so-called) are different. They’re essentially the savings accounts of sovereign nations that have earned them through trade surpluses. These balances are not held in currency form but in the form of securities.
When analysts say the Dollar is the leading reserve currency, what they actually mean is that countries hold their reserves in securities denominated in a specific currency. For 60% of global reserves, those holdings are US Treasury securities denominated in Dollars. The reserves are not actually in Dollars; they’re in securities.
As a result, you cannot be a reserve currency without a large, well-developed sovereign bond market. No country in the world comes close to the US Treasury market in terms of size, variety of maturities, liquidity, settlement, derivatives and other necessary features.
So the real impediment to another currency as a reserve currency is the absence of a bond market where reserves are actually invested. That’s why it’s so difficult to displace Treasuries as reserve assets even if you wanted. Again, no country in the world can come close to the US in that regard.
But here’s where it gets interesting, and why the Dollar could lose its leading reserve status much faster than previously thought.
That’s because the BRICS+ currency offers the opportunity to leapfrog the Treasury market and create a deep, liquid bond market that could challenge Treasuries on the world stage almost from thin air.
The key is to create a BRICS+ currency bond market in 20 or more countries at once, relying on retail investors in each country to buy the bonds.
The BRICS+ bonds would be offered through banks and postal offices and other retail outlets. They would be denominated in BRICS+ currency but investors could purchase them in local currency at market-based exchange rates.
Since the currency is gold backed it would offer an attractive store of value compared with inflation- or default-prone local instruments in countries like Brazil or Argentina. The Chinese in particular would find such investments attractive since they are largely banned from foreign markets and are overinvested in real estate and domestic stocks.
It will take time for such a market to appeal to institutional investors, but the sheer volume of retail investing in BRICS+ instruments in India, China, Brazil and Russia and other countries at the same time could absorb surpluses generated through world trade in the BRICS+ currency.
In short, the way to create an instant reserve currency is to create an instant bond market using your own citizens as willing buyers.
The US did something similar in 1917. From 1790-1917, the US bond market was for professionals only. There was no retail market. That changed during World War I when Woodrow Wilson authorized Liberty Bonds to help finance the war.
There were bond rallies and Liberty Bond parades in every major city. It became a patriotic duty to buy Liberty Bonds. The effort worked, and it also transformed finance. It was the beginning of a world where everyday Americans began to buy stocks, bonds and securities as retail investors.
If the BRICS+ use a kind of Liberty Bond patriotic model, they may well be able to create international reserve assets denominated in the BRICS+ currency even in the absence of developed market support.
This entire turn of events – introduction of a new gold- backed currency, rapid adoption as a payment currency and gradual use as a reserve asset currency – will begin on Aug. 22, 2023, after years of development.
Except for direct participants, the world has mostly ignored this prospect. The result will be an upheaval of the international monetary system coming in a matter of weeks.
-END-
END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: CORN AND WHEAT
Wheat harvest in Kansas will be the smallest since 1957 along with corn
(zerohedge)
Kansas Wheat Harvest Will Be The Smallest Since 1957 And US Corn Is Being Absolutely Devastated By Drought
TUESDAY, JUN 13, 2023 – 08:20 AM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
Significantly higher food prices are coming, because U.S. food production is going to be way below normal levels this year.
That is really bad news, because food prices are already absurdly high. In some cases, people are paying as much for a full shopping cart full of food as they did for a used vehicle in the old days. I wish that I was exaggerating, but I am not. Unfortunately, food prices are only going to go higher because farmers and ranchers are being hit extremely hard from coast to coast.
For example, it is being reported that wheat farmers in Kansas “will reap their smallest harvest in more than 60 years”…
Kansas has been called the country’s breadbasket. Now, wheat farmers in the state will reap their smallest harvest in more than 60 years.
This will go directly down the chain, from farmers to consumers at the grocery store.
Kansas normally produces more wheat than any other U.S. state by a wide margin.
But now the harvest in that state will be the smallest that we have seen since 1957…
For the last two years, a drought has withered a lot of the crop.
Now, this year’s wheat harvest in Kansas is shaping up to be the smallest since 1957. That year, the Eisenhower administration intentionally suppressed wheat production.
There were 166 million people living in the United States in 1957.
Today, there are 331 million people.
So who is going to volunteer to give up eating wheat this year so that others can consume what they normally do?
At this point, things are so bad that we are being told that flour mills in Kansas “will likely have to buy wheat grown in eastern Europe”…
Kansas flour mills will likely have to buy wheat grown in eastern Europe.
For decades, Kansas has led the nation in wheat production. The U.S. leads the world in in wheat exports, as well.
This is a major problem.
But can’t we all just eat more corn instead?
After all, corn is already in thousands upon thousands of different products that Americans consume on a regular basis.
Well, it turns out that corn production is being greatly affected by drought as well. The following comes from a Newsweek article entitled “Corn Prices Set to Soar After Midwest Hit by Worst Drought in 30 Years”…
An unusually dry May in the Midwest has raised concerns over this year’s corn crop in the Corn Belt, the region stretching from the panhandle of Texas up to North Dakota and east to Ohio which dominates the country’s corn production.
For a long time I have been warning that Dust Bowl conditions would return to the middle of the country, and now we are here.
Extremely dry conditions are being accompanied by unusually hot temperatures, and this combination is causing all sorts of havoc for corn farmers…
The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service recently reported increasingly dry topsoil, poor pasture conditions in Missouri, and limited moisture for newly planted crops.
“We have very high temperatures all the way up through the northern plains of the Midwest, which impacts more than just corn and soybeans—it’s impacting other crops as well,” Curt Covington, senior director of partner relations at AgAmerica, America’s largest nonbank agricultural lender, told Newsweek.
We desperately need rain, and lots of it.
More than a third of all U.S. corn production is in areas that are currently experiencing drought, and the situation is especially dire in the “Corn Belt” states…
According to the US Drought Monitor, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin, often called the “Corn Belt” states, are experiencing “exceptional drought” to “moderate drought.” The timing of the drought, this early in the season, could stress young plants.
Normally, if there is going to be serious drought in the middle of the country we see it later in the year.
So the fact that there is this much drought this early in 2023 is a really bad sign.
Of course it isn’t just wheat and corn farmers that are suffering…
-The size of the U.S. beef cow herd is “the smallest since 1962”.
-The orange harvest in Florida will be approximately 56 percent smaller than last year.
-Thanks to extremely bizarre weather, approximately 90 percent of Georgia’s peach crop for 2023 has been destroyed.
Most Americans don’t realize that things have gotten so bad.
If you do not know how to grow a garden, you might want to learn.
Food prices are already painfully high, and they are only going to go higher.
And this is all happening in the context of the worst global food crisis in modern history.
Hunger has been spreading around the world like wildfire, and Yahoo News is reporting that last year there was “a 33% spike in the number of people facing hunger globally”…
The 2023 Global Report on Food Crises, which published its findings last month, found that last year saw a 33% spike in the number of people facing hunger globally from the previous year, up from 193 million people in 53 countries and territories in 2021. It was also the fourth consecutive year that an increasing number of people experienced Phase 3, or above, food insecurity, which designates their situation as serious, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a tool for improving food security analysis and decision making.
Sadly, this is just the beginning.
Due to multiple long-term trends which I discuss in my latest book, global famine has become inevitable.
No matter what decisions our leaders make now, they aren’t going to be able to keep global food production from collapsing in the years ahead.
They know this, but they don’t want everyone to freak out.
I would greatly encourage everyone to start becoming less dependent on the system and more self-sufficient.
Global food supplies are going to keep getting tighter and tighter, and once we get to a real crisis point you will want to be able to take care of yourself, your family and those that will be depending on you.
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS/TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1503
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1604
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.54 PTS OR 0.15%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 32.61 PTS OR 0.50%
2. Nikkei closed UP 584.65 PTS OR 1.80%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.88 EURO RISES TO 1.0794 UP 32 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.415 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 139.35 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE:DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.365***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.023*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.322…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.639
3j Gold at $1961.60 silver at: 24.17 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 40 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 83.68//
3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 139.55 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .415% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9064 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9784 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.722 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.867 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.583 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 23.67…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.434 UP 9 BASIS PTS (RATES RISING RAPIDLY)
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Hit 4400 And Reverse Ahead Of CPI Report
TUESDAY, JUN 13, 2023 – 08:08 AM
US equity futures traded sharply higher in early trading, with spoos (Sept futs contract) rising briefly above 4,400 before giving up much of their advance as traders awaited a crucial CPI print which will show pressures have cooled enough to allow the Fed to put tightening campaign on pause Wednesday and as traders assessed the impact of economic stimulus from China. As of 7:50am ET, S&P futures were flat at 4,390; Nasdaq futures were more buoyant, rising 0.3% on more positive tech news with Oracle’s earnings beat after surging 1.5% the day before to the highest level in over a year. 10Y Treasury yields are flat at 3.73% while a measure of the dollar weakens. Spot gold prices and oil are climbing, while iron ore is declining.
In premarket trading, Oracle shares rose 5% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a forecast for revenue growth that is ahead of the analyst consensus estimate. US-listed China stocks gained in premarket trading, with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. rising 2% and Baidu Inc. up 4.7%, after China’s central bank unexpectedly lowered its seven-day reverse repurchase rate. Agribusiness Bunge dropped after reporting that it will buy Glencore Plc-backed Viterra in a stock-and-cash deal. Apple slipped after a downgrade from UBS Group AG. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Amazon.com rises 0.7% and has been at the forefront of this year’s rally in megacap technology stocks, but it’s also the furthest from regaining its record peak, suggesting to some that the shares still have room to run.
- Devon Energy is up as much as 2% after Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta upgraded the energy company’s rating to buy from neutral on attractive valuation following months of underperformance.
- Manchester United shares rise as much as 31% as the bidding process for the Premier League football club heats up.
- Assurant rises 1.1% to overweight from neutral, seeing a number of near-term catalysts on the horizon for the business services company and finding the current stock price an attractive entry point for investors.
- Salesforce shares are up 0.7% following an event the software company hosted that was focused on AI. While analysts see long-term potential for Salesforce from AI, some noted the event may not have lived up to high expectations.
- Surmodics rises 3.3% as it is upgraded to buy from hold at Needham, which says the medical devices company’s SurVeil drug-coated balloon is likely to be approved sooner than expected by the US Food and Drug Administration following several positive developments.
Global stock markets are green across the globe amid talk of potential stimulus measures in China, with European stocks following their Asian counterparts higher after Wall Street closed firmly in the green on Monday.
Overnight China cut its 7-day reverse repo rates from 2% to 1.9%, the first such reduction in 10 months, raising speculation that it could trim the Loan Prime Rate next week. Separately, Bloomberg reported that China is (again) weighing broad stimulus with property support and rate cuts although this story has been floated so many times we doubt anyone actually believes it. Plans reportedly include at least a dozen measures to support domestic demand and the property sector. Interest rate reductions are also being mulled. State Council may discuss policies as soon as Friday, although may not be announced or implemented.
Meanwhile, as previewed yesterday, confidence is mounting that the latest reading of the US CPI due at 830am will show pressures have cooled enough to allow Federal Reserve policymakers to put their tightening campaign on pause Wednesday. It would mark the first time they forgo a rate hike after 10 consecutive moves in the key rate since March 2022 (read our full preview here).
Here is what the street expects the BLS will report, first the core May prints:
- Core CPI MoM is 0.4% (0.4% prior)
- Core CPI YoY 5.2% (5.5% prior).
And now the May headline CPIs:
- Headline MoM of 0.2% (prior 0.4%)
- Headline YoY 4.1% (prior 4.9%).
And here is JPM’s market reaction matrix.
“The market’s dovish expectations for the Fed’s decision later this week are closely tied to declining inflation, and any CPI figures that deviate from expectations could lead to significant repricing and impact sentiment towards riskier assets,” said Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades. Falling energy prices in May should offset increases in other categories to leave the headline index roughly unchanged, according to Anna Wong, Bloomberg’s chief US economist. Excluding food and energy, prices probably rose 0.3% — a deceleration from April’s 0.4% increase, she said.
That said, the market is still allowing for a possible Fed rate increase next month, with swaps showing an almost quarter-point of additional tightening priced in by the July meeting.
Interest rates in the UK, meanwhile, may still need to move higher. Figures showed that Britain’s labor market tightened unexpectedly in April, the latest evidence that the resilient economy continues to defy efforts to cool demand and inflationary pressures. The data spurred traders to ramp up bets that the Bank of England will keep raising rates. The pound strengthened.
In other news, Bank of America’s latest global survey of fund managers showed investors are “exclusively long” tech stocks amid the buzz around artificial intelligence. Long Big Tech was the most crowded trade, according to 55% of the participants, the strongest conviction since 2020.
European stocks erased their opening gains as initial optimism that China is considering a broad package of stimulus measures gave way to edginess ahead of the US inflation report due later in the day. The Stoxx 600 Index was little changed with mining and technology stocks gaining most, and real estate and utilities declining. Among individual movers, Finnish refiner Neste Oyj rose after being upgraded to outperform at RBC, while Polish e-commerce platform Allegro.eu SA fell after a group of shareholders offered a block of shares at a discount to the last close. Here are some of the most notable European movers:
- Neste gains as much as 4.9% after being raised to outperform at RBC following underperformance in the Finnish refiner’s shares and on a better growth outlook for its sustainable aviation fuel business
- Duerr shares gain as much as 4.8% after the engineering company agreed to buy BBS Automation Group from a group led by EQT at an enterprise value of €440m to €480m
- Hexagon rises as much as 6.4% after the Swedish software maker said a pact with US chipmaker Nvidia will allow its tools to be connected to Nvidia’s platform used for creating virtual spaces
- Embracer rises as much as 12%, the most since May 30, after the Swedish game- developer announced a restructuring program that will cut capital expenditure and overhead costs
- Kinepolis rises as much as 7.4%, the most since February 2022, after the movie theater operator announced after Monday’s close a share buyback program of up to €10 million
- DocMorris jumps as much as 20%, the most since February, after Germany’s Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach said digital e-prescriptions would be available nationwide starting July 1
- Allegro drops as much as 6.5%, the lowest in over a month, after a group of shareholders offered about 53m shares in the e-commerce platform to institutional buyers at PLN 32.25 apiece
- Almirall drops as much as 11% after the Spanish pharma firm said it has set the price of new shares to be issued in a capital increase at €8.2 each, representing ~5.7% discount to their last close
- Admiral drops as much as 7.4%, the most in more than three months, as Citi cuts the motor insurer to sell on an expected reset of earnings expectations and material downside risk in the 1H numbers
- CMC Markets shares drop as much as 7.3% at the open after the online trading platform’s FY results, with slower client activity weighing on its outlook and prompting PT cuts from brokers
Earlier in the session, Asian markets rose by more than 1% as China was said to consider broad stimulus measures, partially reported by Bloomberg News earlier this month. Investor speculation about looming cuts to China’s longer-term policy rates also intensified on Tuesday after the central bank unexpectedly lowered its seven-day reverse repurchase rate.
“The message is mixed: on the one hand, they surprised the market by announcing a cut in the short-term rate, but on the other, it also shows that the Chinese recovery is really weak,” said Charles-Henry Monchau, chief investment officer at Banque Syz.
- China’s Shanghai Comp. and the Hang Seng were both initially subdued despite the PBoC’s cut to its short-term interbank funding rate which raises the prospects of a cut to the MLF rate and benchmark LPR, with sentiment dampened by ongoing growth concerns and lingering frictions after the US added 43 entities to its export control list.
- Australia’s ASX 200 just about kept afloat but with upside capped after mixed data in which Westpac Consumer Confidence improved but remained near recession lows and NAB Business Confidence deteriorated.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 resumed its outperformance and breached the 33,000 level for the first time in over three decades amid strength in automakers and with SoftBank spearheading the advances on news that Intel is to discuss being an anchor investor in the Arm IPO.
- India’s benchmark index posted its biggest advance since May 26, tracking improved risk-on sentiment across global markets on expectations that world interest rates are close to their peak. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.7% to 63,143.16 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index increased 0.6%. The Sensex has been trading near its all-time high for several sessions, but has failed to close above the peak of 63,284.19 on Dec. 1.
Emerging markets rose as China’s surprise short-term policy interest rate cut and the possibility of stimulus measures eased concerns about faltering growth in the world’s largest developing economy. MSCI’s developing-nation equities gauge rose 1% to a four-month high, with Asian technology stocks leading gains. In South Africa, Johannesburg’s benchmark stock index climbed as much as 2%, boosted by a rally in mining companies.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% to the lowest since May 17 ahead of CPI data. US consumers’ near-term inflation expectations in May hit a two-year low, backing the case for the Federal Reserve to halt policy tightening. The pound rose as much as 0.5% against the dollar, after hot labor market data fanned concerns that Bank of England still hasn’t done enough to bring inflationary pressures to heel. Traders priced in a further 120 basis points of interest rate hikes, taking the key rate to above 5.7% in February 2024. South Korea’s won outperformed emerging peers amid dollar sales by exporters. The yuan pared losses, after earlier reaching a six- month low after the central bank’s rate cut. The threat of a devaluation in Nigeria’s currency following the ouster of the country’s central bank governor has sent investors seeking cover in the derivatives market.
“The US dollar is likely to remain heavy until the US CPI is released,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists led by Joseph Capurso wrote in a research note. “Assuming the US CPI does not provide a positive shock, we expect the US dollar to ease if the FOMC sounds modestly dovish to justify their flagged ‘pause’”
In rates, treasuries were little changed as US trading day gets under way, shrugging off steep curve-flattening selloff in gilts sparked by hot UK wage data. TSY yields are within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels, when key curve spreads including 2s10s and 5s30s steepened from lowest levels since March; the 10Y Treasury was at 3.74% last. UK yields, off session peaks, remain higher by more than 15bp at front end with long-end yields little changed; UK 2-year rose as much as 20bp to 4.84%, highest level since 2008. Compressed Treasury coupon auction cycle is set to conclude with $18b 30-year bond reopening; WI yield 3.88% is within 1bp of March result, which was highest since November.
Session highlights include May CPI report expected to show further moderation in inflation on day before Fed rate decision and 30-year bond auction at 1pm New York time. Swaps continue to price in about one-in-three odds of a quarter point rate increase, and to nearly fully price in a hike by July.
In commodities, oil rebounded from its lowest level in almost three months on hopes for China stimulus, developments that also boosted iron ore. WTI rose 1% to trade near $67.80. Spot gold adds 0.3% to around $1,963. Bitcoin rises 1%.
Looking to the day ahead now, the main highlight is the all important CPI data at 8:30 a.m., after which the FOMC will start its two-day meeting at 10:00 a.m. Also at 10:00 a.m., Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify to the House financial services panel. At 11:30 a.m., the US will sell $38 billion 52-week bills and $45 billion 42-day CMBs, and then another $18 billion 30-year bonds at 1:00 p.m. Later, at 3:00 p.m., Donald Trump will appear in federal court in Miami. Also today, NATO’s Stoltenberg is meeting with President Biden. In corporate news, it’s Home Depot’s investor day and Elon Musk is due to speak at the Edison Electric Institute Conference at 11:00 a.m.
Other data releases include UK unemployment for April, and the German ZEW survey for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Dhingra, as well as the ECB’s De Cos. In addition, incoming BoE MPC member Megan Greene will appear before the House of Commons’ Treasury Committee.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,355.50
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 462.08
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.37%
- Euro up 0.4% to $1.0802
- MXAP up 1.1% to 167.45
- MXAPJ up 1.0% to 527.08
- Nikkei up 1.8% to 33,018.65
- Topix up 1.2% to 2,264.79
- Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 19,521.42
- Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,233.67
- Sensex up 0.5% to 63,030.48
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,138.86
- Kospi up 0.3% to 2,637.95
- Brent Futures up 1.0% to $72.55/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,963.42
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.37% to 103.28
Top Overnight News
- China cut 7-day reverse repo rates from 2% to 1.9%, the first such reduction in 10 months, raising speculation that it could trim the Loan Prime Rate next week. RTRS
- China is considering a broad package of stimulus measures as pressure builds on Xi Jinping’s government to boost the world’s second-largest economy, according to people familiar with the matter. BBG
- SoftBank is planning a fresh round of layoffs at its Vision Fund investment arm, two people familiar with the matter said, the latest cost-cutting move at the Japanese conglomerate. The layoffs, which could be announced in the next two weeks, may impact up to 30% of its staff at the unit. RTRS
- UK jobs data for April comes in hot, with a jump in wages (+7.2% vs. the St +6.95) and a decline in the unemployment rate (3.8% vs. the Street 4%). RTRS
- GIR expects a 0.44% increase in May core CPI—above consensus of 0.4%—which would nonetheless lower the year-over-year rate to 5.32% (vs. 5.2% consensus). We expect a 0.21% increase in May headline CPI (vs. 0.2% consensus), which would lower the year-over-year rate to 4.19% (vs. 4.1% consensus). (GIR)
- Donald Trump is due in a Miami federal court this afternoon to face charges alleging he jeopardized national security. The 37-count indictment accuses him of mishandling classified documents after he left the White House. After the hearing, the former president will head to his New Jersey golf club to deliver a speech and hold a fundraiser. BBG
- US junk bond defaults start to spike as higher rates and sluggish growth begin to weigh on the economy (there have been $21B in junk defaults so far this year, more than in all of 2021 and 2022 combined). FT
- Across the country, there are signs that Americans are pulling back on restaurant outings, hotel stays and airline tickets, after months of exuberant consumption. Spending on a range of services, including international travel, taxi rides and clothing alterations, fell in April for this first time this year, according to federal data. People are also spending less on public transportation, child care and funerals. Washington Post
- Apartment rent growth is declining fast, shifting the rental market to the tenant’s favor for the first time in years. The average of six national rental-price measures from rental-listing and property data companies shows new-lease asking rents rose just under 2% over the 12 months ending in May. That is down from the double-digit increases of a year ago and represents the largest deceleration over any year in recent history, according to data firm CoStar Group and rental software company RealPage. WSJ
- Offices in New York City crossed the 50% threshold last week for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic eviscerated the local economy at the start of the outbreak. Building occupancies in the New York metro area hit 50.5% of pre-pandemic levels in the week ended Wednesday, June 7, according to data from security firm Kastle Systems, up 4.2 percentage points from the week before. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded mostly higher following the gains on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose to their best levels in a year with big tech supported as yields softened ahead of the upcoming risk events, while the region also digested the PBoC’s cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate. ASX 200 just about kept afloat but with upside capped after mixed data in which Westpac Consumer Confidence improved but remained near recession lows and NAB Business Confidence deteriorated. Nikkei 225 resumed its outperformance and breached the 33,000 level for the first time in over three decades amid strength in automakers and with SoftBank spearheading the advances on news that Intel is to discuss being an anchor investor in the Arm IPO. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were both initially subdued despite the PBoC’s cut to its short-term interbank funding rate which raises the prospects of a cut to the MLF rate and benchmark LPR, with sentiment dampened by ongoing growth concerns and lingering frictions after the US added 43 entities to its export control list.
Top Asian News
- PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos and cut the rate by 10bps to 1.90% from 2.00%.
- China is said to be weighing broad stimulus with property support and rate cuts, according to Bloomberg sources; Plans include at least a dozen measures to support domestic demand and the property sector. Interest rate reductions are also being mulled. State Council may discuss policies as soon as Friday, although may not be announced or implemented.
- China’s state planner (NDRC) issues notice on lowering costs this year; to exempt and reduce VAT for small businesses until year-end. Will steadily lower loan interest rates. To introduce targeted tax and fee reduction policies in science and tech. Will guide financial institutions to raise medium and long-term loan issuances for the manufacturing industry.
European bourses are firmer though have eased off of post-open best levels, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%. The region is continuing the upside from yesterday’s session and was unreactive to German ZEW with markets fully focused on today’s US CPI. Sectors are mixed, Basic Resources outperforms as metals make gains following Chinese stimulus reports and action, a narrative which is also supporting Luxury. Elsewhere, Tech is bolstered by Oracle post-earnings.
Stateside, futures are firmer across the board with the NQ +0.5% incrementally outperforming given the tech sectors strength; overall, action has modestly extended on Monday’s strength as we look to the inflation release. Oracle Corp (ORCL) – Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.67 (exp. 1.58), Revenue 13.84bln (exp. 13.73bln), raised quarterly dividend to USD 0.40/shr from 0.32/shr. Cloud services and license support revenue rose 23% Y/Y to USD 9.37 (exp. 9.1bln). Cloud license and on-premise license revenue fell 15% Y/Y to USD 2.15bln (exp. 2.33bln). Guides Q1 EPS USD 1.12-1.16 (exp. 1.17), guides Q1 rev. growth of 8%-10% (exp. 8.8% growth), adds FX will have a positive 0%-1% impact on rev. and + USD 0.01 on EPS. (PR Newswire) +4.3% in pre-market trade.
Top European News
- BoE’s Greene (appointee, joins July 5th) says UK labour market surprisingly tight; indicators are not evolving as one might expect given significant monetary policy tightening. If you engage in stop-start monetary policy, can end up with worse outcomes. UK is seeing some second-round effects in inflation. Reasonable to expect inflation to come down fairly quickly. Expects it will be easier to get inflation down to 5% from 10%, than to 2% from 5%. If UK inflation drivers are persistent, BoE needs to lean against this.
- UK Energy Secretary Shapps says the UK does not need more green subsidies, and dismisses calls from green industries for a UK-version of the US’ Inflation Reduction Act, via Politico.
- EU’s Sefcovic warned that barriers between the UK and EU are likely to deepen further despite the resolution of a diplomatic stand-off over Northern Ireland creating a “new spirit” in relations, according to the FT.
- Germany aims to buy six Iris-T defence systems for around EUR 900mln for its air force; to decide on the purchase on Wednesday, via Reuters citing sources.
FX
- Dollar soggy pre-US CPI as DXY drifts down between 103.620-210 bounds.
- Euro takes mixed German ZEW survey in stride as it probes option expiries, 1.0800 and 100 DMA vs Greenback.
- Sterling revival forged on strength of UK jobs and wage data, with Cable back above 1.2550 from almost round number below.
- Yuan regroups after PBoC reverse repo cut as reports swirl regarding more Chinese stimulus, USD/CNY and USD/CNH off circa 7.1675 and 7.1785 respective peaks.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1498 vs exp. 7.1490 (prev. 7.1212)
- South African Electricity Minister Ramokopa says over 5500 megawatts of renewable projects will be coming online by 2026; 55 gigawatts of wind and solar projects are under development across the country.
Fixed Income
- Bonds mixed again and UK debt still underperforming as strong labour data backs up hawkish BoE rhetoric.
- Gilts near the base of 94.80-95.18 parameters post-mediocre 2033 DMO auction, Bunds underpinned within 134.01-55 range after conflicting German ZEW survey findings and T-note afloat between 113-13+/22 bounds pre-US CPI and long bond sale.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are firmer intraday though more broadly are consolidating after Monday’s subdued settlement, action which was driven in part by Goldman Sachs cutting its forecasts.
- Currently, WTI and Brent are firmer by around USD 1.00/bbl to USD 1.30/bbl and some USD 0.20/bbl from their initial session peaks at USD 67.15/bbl and USD 71.94/bbl respectively.
- Spot gold is once again gleaning some incremental upside from the softer USD, though is generally contained pre-CPI. Conversely, base metals are bid on the PBoC action and subsequent source reports and commentary around support measures.
- Boliden (BOL SS) reports a fire at the Rönnskär copper smelter facility, all production there is stopped until further notice. Initial assessment is this can be resumed in a few weeks. Boliden notes Rönnskär can produce 250k/T of copper per year, making it one of the world’s largest smelters
Crypto
- Bitcoin is rangebound and yet to deviate meaningfully from the USD 26k mark with specifics limited and markets broadly focused on upcoming US CPI as the final and potentially decisive input before Wednesday’s FOMC.
Geopolitics
- Belarusian President Lukashenko says Belarus will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons in the case of aggression against it, via Belta; says deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a deterrent to discourage potential aggressors.
- Ukrainian air defence systems were engaged in repelling air attacks in the Kyiv region, according to the region’s military administration, while it was also reported that Russia conducted strikes on the city of Kryvyi Rih, according to the mayor.
- Russian Defence Ministry says their forces have seized German Leopard tanks, via Ria.
- US President Biden’s admin. is expected to approve depleted-uranium tank rounds for Ukraine, via WSJ citing sources.
- Latest US aid package to Ukraine will include more Bradley and Stryker fighting vehicles, according to NYT.
- US Central Command said a helicopter mishap in Northeastern Syria injured 22 US service members on June 11th and the cause is under investigation although there was no enemy fire reported, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
- 06:00: May SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 89.4; est. 88.5, prior 89.0
- 08:30: May CPI MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
- 08:30: May CPI YoY, est. 4.1%, prior 4.9%
- 08:30: May CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.2%, prior 5.5%
- 08:30: May CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
- 08:30: May Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -1.1%, revised -1.2%
- 08:30: May Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -0.5%, revised -0.6%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets have remained buoyant as we arrive at the start of a pivotal few days on the macro calendar. In fact, for the first time since January 2022, we’re able to write that the S&P 500 (+0.93%) closed at a one-year high, having now surpassed its local peak from last August during the bear-market rally. That optimism surrounding the outlook can be seen in other ways too. For instance, futures show investors are increasingly sceptical that the Fed will cut rates in the months ahead, which is a big turnaround from the substantial cuts that were priced during the market turmoil in March. Furthermore, the risk-on tone has led investors to move out of sovereign bonds, and another milestone from yesterday was that the 2yr real Treasury yield closed at a post-GFC high of 2.51%. There’s no sign of any let-up either, with futures on the S&P 500 up another +0.21% this morning.
Now of course, if you wanted to play devil’s advocate, this is still an incredibly narrow rally that’s been predominantly led by big tech stocks. For example, the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 still hasn’t regained its levels prior to SVB’s collapse in March, so we’re not seeing broad-based gains for the index just yet. As it happens, yesterday’s advance was very much in that spirit, with the NASDAQ (+1.53%) and the FANG+ index (+1.85%) of 10 megacap tech stocks outpacing the broader equity market once again. In the meantime, banks (-0.56%) underperformed following announcements by KeyCorp and Citizens Financial Group that they were seeing a softer net income forecast and an increase in charge-offs, respectively. AI remains a key theme, and after the close Oracle (+3.64% in after-market trading) bounced after reporting increased sales numbers and rose guidance on higher AI infrastructure demand.
That positive backdrop sets us up for an incredibly eventful week ahead, which kicks off today with the US CPI release for May. The inflation picture has remained challenging over recent months, since although headline inflation has cooled significantly, core inflation has remained stubbornly persistent. Indeed, the monthly core CPI print has been at least +0.4% for 5 consecutive months now, which is still too fast for comfort for the Fed. This time around, our US economists see that trend broadly continuing, with monthly core inflation coming in at +0.37%, which would only take the year-on-year rate down to +5.3%. And for headline, they see a monthly gain of just +0.01%, leaving the year-on-year rate at a 26-month low of +4.0%, which would be less than half the rate from a year earlier.
Of course, the big question from the CPI will be how it affects the Fed’s policy decision tomorrow. Currently this morning, futures are pricing in just a 20% likelihood of a further hike in June, suggesting that they’ll finally hit the pause button after a series of 10 successive increases. But given there’s only a day to go, the fact that markets are still pricing in a non-trivial likelihood of a June hike shows that they’re not ready to discount the probability of a move just yet. The view of our economists is that the Fed will remain on hold this week, and even if the CPI surprised moderately on the upside, the Fed could instead meet that with a stronger tightening signal from the dot plot and Chair Powell’s press conference. Their view is it would take a sizeable outperformance to see the FOMC surprise the market with a hike.
With the CPI release to look forward to, investors became increasingly sceptical that the Fed would end up cutting rates this year. Indeed, the rate priced in for the December meeting moved up to a post-SVB high of 5.063% yesterday, which is only just beneath where the effective fed funds rate currently is at 5.08%. The 2yr yield had also been on track for a post-SVB high, but came down later in the session to end -1.8bps lower at 4.577%, while the 10yr yield was just lower than unchanged at 3.735%. As mentioned at the top, there was also a notable move higher in real yields, and the 2yr TIPS yield closed at its highest level since 2009 at 2.44%.
While Treasuries slightly gained ground, gilts underperformed yesterday, where the 10yr yield was up by +10.0bps on the day to 4.33%. In fact, the 2yr gilt yield even surpassed its closing high from when Liz Truss was PM, taking them up to levels last seen in 2008 at 4.62%. One factor driving that was a speech from the BoE’s Mann, who is the most hawkish member on the MPC. She said that she was “very concerned” about persistent pressures on inflation, which helped to cement market expectations that there’d be at least 100bps of further rate hikes from the BoE over the rest of the year. These comments weren’t enough to support the pound, however, which weakened by -0.50% against the US Dollar to $1.251.
For Europe, this increasing positivity led to another round of tightening in sovereign bond spreads. There were several examples of this, but one was the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields, which fell to just 167bps by the close yesterday, marking its tightest level since April 2022. The 10yr bund yield did actually rise by +0.9bps, moving higher along with Treasuries and gilts, but elsewhere on the continent the pattern was mostly lower, with yields on 10yr OATs (-0.5bps) and BTPs (-5.7bps) falling back. Otherwise, the major equity indices proved resilient, and the STOXX 600 advanced +0.16%.
Those overnight gains are also echoing in Asian equity markets this morning, and have got some further support after the People’s Bank of China lowered their seven-day reverse repo rate by 10bps to 1.9%. That’s the first cut in that rate since August 2022, and comes amidst increasingly weak data releases over recent months. In response, the offshore Yuan has weakened to 7.17 per US Dollar overnight, and yields on 10yr government bonds are down -4.1bps to their lowest since September, at 2.64%.
This backdrop has seen the main equity indices advance across the region. The Nikkei (+1.96%) is leading the way, hitting a post-1990 high this morning and taking its YTD gains to +26.73%. Otherwise, there’s been gains for the KOSPI (+0.48%), the Hang Seng (+0.40%), and the CSI 300 (+0.12%), whereas the Shanghai Comp (-0.06%) is one of the few major indices to lose ground. US equity futures are also pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.21%.
Elsewhere yesterday, the Nigerian Naira was one of the world’s top-performing currencies, strengthening +1.08% against the US Dollar. That follows the move by new President Bola Tinubu to suspend the central bank governor on Friday night. It also comes amidst a broader uptick in volatility across frontier markets like Nigeria, Egypt and Pakistan, not least due to rising global interest rates and the strong dollar. For those interested in more information, our colleagues in EM Research are hosting a client call at 2pm London time today on their new coverage of, and toolkit for, frontier market currencies. Clients can register for the call using this link.
Ahead of the CPI release, there was some mixed news on the inflation expectations side from the New York Fed’s latest survey. The good news was that 1yr expectations were down to a two-year low of 4.1%. But longer-term expectations continued to creep higher, with 5yr expectations hitting an 11-month high of 2.7%.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US CPI release for May. Other data releases include UK unemployment for April, and the German ZEW survey for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Dhingra, as well as the ECB’s De Cos. In addition, incoming BoE MPC member Megan Greene will appear before the House of Commons’ Treasury Committee.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Equities cautious, DXY weakens and UST’s rangebound ahead of US CPI – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, JUN 13, 2023 – 06:39 AM
- European bourses & US futures are firmer but off best levels in a continuation of Monday’s action and ahead of US CPI
- NQ is the outperformer as the tech sector benefits from Oracle strength post-earnings
- USD dips pre-inflation while GBP lifts post-jobs/wages, Yuan attempts to recover after PBoC action
- Gilts continue to lag, impacted by data, supply and BoE rhetoric while USTs are once again more contained
- Crude bid after a softer settlement, base metals and spot gold glean support from China action/reports and USD respectively
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI. Speeches from BoE’s Bailey, Dhingra; US Treasury Secretary Yellen. Supply from the US. OPEC MOMR at 12:20BST/07:20ET
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are firmer though have eased off of post-open best levels, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%. The region is continuing the upside from yesterday’s session and was unreactive to German ZEW with markets fully focused on today’s US CPI.
- Sectors are mixed, Basic Resources outperforms as metals make gains following Chinese stimulus reports and action, a narrative which is also supporting Luxury. Elsewhere, Tech is bolstered by Oracle post-earnings.
- Stateside, futures are firmer across the board with the NQ +0.5% incrementally outperforming given the tech sectors strength; overall, action has modestly extended on Monday’s strength as we look to the inflation release.
- Oracle Corp (ORCL) – Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.67 (exp. 1.58), Revenue 13.84bln (exp. 13.73bln), raised quarterly dividend to USD 0.40/shr from 0.32/shr. Cloud services and license support revenue rose 23% Y/Y to USD 9.37 (exp. 9.1bln). Cloud license and on-premise license revenue fell 15% Y/Y to USD 2.15bln (exp. 2.33bln). Guides Q1 EPS USD 1.12-1.16 (exp. 1.17), guides Q1 rev. growth of 8%-10% (exp. 8.8% growth), adds FX will have a positive 0%-1% impact on rev. and + USD 0.01 on EPS. (PR Newswire) +4.3% in pre-market trade
- Home Depot (HD) reaffirms FY23 outlook; sees sales growth between 3-4% per year in its market stability base case. +0.8% in pre-market trade
- Click here and here for a recap of the main European updates.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- Dollar soggy pre-US CPI as DXY drifts down between 103.620-210 bounds.
- Euro takes mixed German ZEW survey in stride as it probes option expiries, 1.0800 and 100 DMA vs Greenback.
- Sterling revival forged on strength of UK jobs and wage data, with Cable back above 1.2550 from almost round number below.
- Yuan regroups after PBoC reverse repo cut as reports swirl regarding more Chinese stimulus, USD/CNY and USD/CNH off circa 7.1675 and 7.1785 respective peaks.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1498 vs exp. 7.1490 (prev. 7.1212)
- South African Electricity Minister Ramokopa says over 5500 megawatts of renewable projects will be coming online by 2026; 55 gigawatts of wind and solar projects are under development across the country.
- Click here for notable OpEx for the NY Cut.
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME
- Bonds mixed again and UK debt still underperforming as strong labour data backs up hawkish BoE rhetoric.
- Gilts near the base of 94.80-95.18 parameters post-mediocre 2033 DMO auction, Bunds underpinned within 134.01-55 range after conflicting German ZEW survey findings and T-note afloat between 113-13+/22 bounds pre-US CPI and long bond sale.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks are firmer intraday though more broadly are consolidating after Monday’s subdued settlement, action which was driven in part by Goldman Sachs cutting its forecasts.
- Currently, WTI and Brent are firmer by around USD 1.00/bbl to USD 1.30/bbl and some USD 0.20/bbl from their initial session peaks at USD 67.15/bbl and USD 71.94/bbl respectively.
- Spot gold is once again gleaning some incremental upside from the softer USD, though is generally contained pre-CPI. Conversely, base metals are bid on the PBoC action and subsequent source reports and commentary around support measures.
- Boliden (BOL SS) reports a fire at the Rönnskär copper smelter facility, all production there is stopped until further notice. Initial assessment is this can be resumed in a few weeks. Boliden notes Rönnskär can produce 250k/T of copper per year, making it one of the world’s largest smelters
- Click here for more detail.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is rangebound and yet to deviate meaningfully from the USD 26k mark with specifics limited and markets broadly focused on upcoming US CPI as the final and potentially decisive input before Wednesday’s FOMC.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- BoE’s Greene (appointee, joins July 5th) says UK labour market surprisingly tight; indicators are not evolving as one might expect given significant monetary policy tightening. If you engage in stop-start monetary policy, can end up with worse outcomes. UK is seeing some second-round effects in inflation. Reasonable to expect inflation to come down fairly quickly. Expects it will be easier to get inflation down to 5% from 10%, than to 2% from 5%. If UK inflation drivers are persistent, BoE needs to lean against this.
- UK Energy Secretary Shapps says the UK does not need more green subsidies, and dismisses calls from green industries for a UK-version of the US’ Inflation Reduction Act, via Politico.
- EU’s Sefcovic warned that barriers between the UK and EU are likely to deepen further despite the resolution of a diplomatic stand-off over Northern Ireland creating a “new spirit” in relations, according to the FT.
- Germany aims to buy six Iris-T defence systems for around EUR 900mln for its air force; to decide on the purchase on Wednesday, via Reuters citing sources.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
- UK Average Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Apr) 7.2% vs Exp. 6.9% (Prev. 6.7%, Rev. 6.8%); Average Week Earnings 3M YY (Apr) 6.5% vs Exp. 6.1% (Prev. 5.8%, Rev. 6.1%)
- UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Apr) 3.8% vs Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.9%); Employment Change (Apr) 250k vs. Exp. 162k (Prev. 182k)
- HMRC Payrolls Change (May) 23k (Prev. -135k, Rev. 7k); Claimant Count Unemployment Change (May) -13.6k (Prev. 46.7k, Rev. 23.4k)
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun) -8.5 (Prev. -10.7); Current Conditions (Jun) -56.5 (Prev. -34.8). Current recession is generally not considered particularly alarming and experts do not expect an improvement in H2.
- Norwegian GDP Month Mainland (Apr) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.2%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US House Republican hardliners said they will allow chamber votes this week on partisan measures involving gas stoves, pistol braces and regulations, while they stand ready to block other measures while seeking a power-sharing deal with House Speaker McCarthy. It was also reported that House Speaker McCarthy stated Republicans have the votes to move forward on stalled legislation this week and he agreed to continue to talk to hardliner conservatives, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICS
- Belarusian President Lukashenko says Belarus will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons in the case of aggression against it, via Belta; says deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a deterrent to discourage potential aggressors.
- Ukrainian air defence systems were engaged in repelling air attacks in the Kyiv region, according to the region’s military administration, while it was also reported that Russia conducted strikes on the city of Kryvyi Rih, according to the mayor.
- Russian Defence Ministry says their forces have seized German Leopard tanks, via Ria.
- US President Biden’s admin. is expected to approve depleted-uranium tank rounds for Ukraine, via WSJ citing sources.
- Latest US aid package to Ukraine will include more Bradley and Stryker fighting vehicles, according to NYT.
- US Central Command said a helicopter mishap in Northeastern Syria injured 22 US service members on June 11th and the cause is under investigation although there was no enemy fire reported, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks eventually traded mostly higher following the gains on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose to their best levels in a year with big tech supported as yields softened ahead of the upcoming risk events, while the region also digested the PBoC’s cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate.
- ASX 200 just about kept afloat but with upside capped after mixed data in which Westpac Consumer Confidence improved but remained near recession lows and NAB Business Confidence deteriorated.
- Nikkei 225 resumed its outperformance and breached the 33,000 level for the first time in over three decades amid strength in automakers and with SoftBank spearheading the advances on news that Intel is to discuss being an anchor investor in the Arm IPO.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were both initially subdued despite the PBoC’s cut to its short-term interbank funding rate which raises the prospects of a cut to the MLF rate and benchmark LPR, with sentiment dampened by ongoing growth concerns and lingering frictions after the US added 43 entities to its export control list.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos and cut the rate by 10bps to 1.90% from 2.00%.
- China is said to be weighing broad stimulus with property support and rate cuts, according to Bloomberg sources; Plans include at least a dozen measures to support domestic demand and the property sector. Interest rate reductions are also being mulled. State Council may discuss policies as soon as Friday, although may not be announced or implemented.
- China’s state planner (NDRC) issues notice on lowering costs this year; to exempt and reduce VAT for small businesses until year-end. Will steadily lower loan interest rates. To introduce targeted tax and fee reduction policies in science and tech. Will guide financial institutions to raise medium and long-term loan issuances for the manufacturing industry.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (June) 79.2 (Prev. 79.0)
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (May) -4 (Prev. 0); Conditions (May) 8 (Prev. 14)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.54 PTS OR 0.15% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 32.61 PTS OR 0.50% /The Nikkei closed UP 584.65 OR 1.80% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.23 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1503 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1605 /Oil DOWN TO 68.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 73.50 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
China opens the floodgates trying to stave off deflation
(zerohedge)
China Opens The Gates To More Easing
MONDAY, JUN 12, 2023 – 11:20 PM
We had a feeling this was coming after last week’s dismal Chinese export data…
… and sure enough:
- *PBOC CUTS RATE FOR 7-DAY REVERSE REPO TO 1.9% FROM 2%
As Bloomberg’s Sophia Horta e Costa writes, Tuesday’s short-term policy interest-rate cut from the PBOC is small, but a somewhat surprising one; also Thursday’s decision on the MLF just became a whole lot more important for Chinese assets.
According to Costa, on its own, you could argue cutting the 7-day reverse repo rate is rather unnecessary: there’s so much liquidity in the interbank system (and not much demand for it) that there’s little need for the PBOC to guide money market rates lower. The cost of 7-day reverse repos closed around 1.8% on Monday. In fact, it’s closed below the prior 2% interest rate every single day in June.
So why cut? Simple: There’s a signaling power to such a move. The central bank is telling the market it’s in easing mode and ready to lend more support to the economy, and in the process send the yuan much lower (and boost exports).
It also suggests that we may get a reduction to the MLF rate on Thursday after all. This would matter far more than today’s cut because the MLF has a one-year tenor. If we do get a cut, this would ensure liquidity stays cheap for longer and would confirm the PBOC’s signal.
Bloomberg’s bottom line: “After sticking to a wait-and-see approach on monetary easing during the reopening of the economy, the PBOC may have just embarked on more proactive stimulus path.”
end
Amid Dismal Credit Data, China Reportedly Mulling “Broad Stimulus”… But Nobody Believes It Anymore
TUESDAY, JUN 13, 2023 – 11:40 AM
Just hours after the PBOC unexpectedly cut its 7-day reverse repo rates from 2% to 1.9%, the first such reduction in 10 months, and after we commented that by doing so “China Opens The Gates To More Easing“, China’s added to the monetary boost when its central bank lowered interest rates on the PBOC’s standing lending facility (SLF) by 10 basis points to 2.75 percent.
Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group said the rate cut signals Beijing’s stance is turning more supportive, and various policy steps will be taken in the same direction.
“Policy is the only game changer” in the face of weak consumer and business confidence in the economy, Hu said. “The rate cut today sent a clear signal that policy would turn more supportive in the coming months, a significant shift from the tapering in stimulus since April.”
Of course, such modest monetary stimuli do little to stimulate the (formerly) world’s most populous country; and so, perhaps to underscore that Beijing is far behind the curve when it comes to boosting the economy in general, and demand in particular, Bloomberg reported that China is also considering a broad package of fiscal stimulus measures “as pressure builds on Xi Jinping’s government to boost the world’s second-largest economy.”
The stimulus proposals, drafted by multiple government agencies “include at least a dozen measures designed to support areas such as real estate and domestic demand” and also include more aggressive interest-rate reductions.
As reported previously, a key part of the proposed stimulus package involves supporting the Chinese real estate market, the world’s largest asset class.
Regulators are seeking to lower costs on outstanding residential mortgages and boost relending through the nation’s policy banks to ensure homes are delivered, one of the people said.
The plan has yet to be finalized and may be subject to change, the people added. The State Council may discuss the policies as soon as this Friday but it’s unclear when they will be announced or implemented, the people said. Further details on the scope of the proposed stimulus package weren’t immediately available.
And yet, for all the reports of “imminent” watershed stimulus, now punctuated by actual (tiny) rate cuts, China’s stimulus remains very much lacking as the latest Chinese credit data revealed. Indeed, the just reported May loan, Total Social Financing and M2 data all came in below expectations again after the disappointing credit data in April. This, according to Goldman (full report available to pro subscribers), likely contributed to the policy interest rate cut decision by the PBOC this morning.
Here are the details:
- New CNY loans: RMB 1.36 tn in May; missing consensus: RMB 1.55tn.
- Total social financing: RMB 1.56 tn in May, missing consensus: RMB1.9tn
- TSF stock growth: 9.5% yoy in May, vs. 10.0% in April.
- M2: 11.6% yoy in May; missing consensus: 12.0% yoy; down from April: 12.4% yoy
RMB loan month-over-month annualized growth was 8.2% in May, higher than 6.6% in April. Considering the low base in April, the 8.2% month-over-month annualized growth of RMB loans was still quite sluggish. The composition of loan data suggests the deterioration of the property market dragged on credit growth, as household medium to long term loan growth was weak. Overall total social financing month-over-month annualized growth was 6.8%, slower than overall RMB loans due to lower corporate bond issuance. M2 growth slowed to 11.6% yoy in May from 12.4% in April. Fiscal deposits rose by RMB 237bn in May, smaller than the RMB 503bn increase in May 2022, which added to M2 growth, suggesting faster pace of government spending in May.
Looking at the data, Goldman said that it expects more monetary policy easing measures to be announced, including MLF rate and LPR cuts over the next few days, and another RRR cut in Q3 to facilitate activity growth.
Others are more skeptical: in fact, as Bloomberg reports, the lack of confidence is so entrenched among China’s equity investors that government efforts to boost growth are repeatedly met by calls for Beijing to do more.
To wit, the modest PBOC rate cut drew little enthusiasm from equity traders, with volumes about 25% lower than recent averages. Even the subsequent news that China is considering a broad package of stimulus measures only boosted the CSI 300 Index by half a percentage point. It’s been languishing in a bear market for close to one and a half years.
It’s no secret that this was supposed to be the year to buy Chinese stocks as investors counted on Beijing to supercharge the economy and revive the property market after years of deleveraging and Covid restrictions. Such certainty has instead been replaced by weak sentiment that’s proving particularly hard to reverse, making light of government efforts to boost growth and wrong-footing Wall Street’s China stock bulls for a second year.
“Domestic sentiment is very weak,” Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at Union Bancaire Privee, told Bloomberg. “China needs to create a situation where producer prices recover, the equity market takes off and people stop panicking over LGFV credit risks,” as he referred to local government financing vehicles.
Unfortunately, for that to happen, Xi Jinping – whose consolidated debt of 300% is higher than the US – must be willing to accept that its debt is about to explode to new record highs.
Even back in 2022, when China’s strictest Covid measures paralyzed large swathes of the economy, stimulus promises were enough to excite traders and briefly helped reverse a rout in March. Consumers now see few signs record youth unemployment and the longest-ever downturn in the housing market will end any time soon. A sense of lost animal spirits risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, with some fearing that China is undergoing a Japan-like “balance-sheet recession.”
Overnight, an index of developers’ shares barely rose following news that multiple government agencies are drafting further stimulus proposals with a focus on reviving the property market. An earlier cut to the seven-day reverse repo rate, which will make it cheaper for banks to borrow from each other, increases the likelihood Chinese lenders will reduce the cost of loans that underpin mortgages.
The market reaction underscores the difficult Chinese authorities have been facing as they struggle to revive investor and economic confidence after President Xi Jinping scrapped Covid Zero at the end of last year and unleashed a string of market-friendly reversals for beleaguered sectors like property. The CSI 300 Index and the Hang Seng gauge of Chinese shares remain down for the year, underperforming the markets in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan by a wide margin.
The ball is now in Beijing’s court, where anything less than a “big bank” stimulus will lead to even more disappointment, similar to how OPEC is losing the speculator war for now.
According to Bloomberg’s Sogia Horta e Costa, more stimulus could come as soon as this week, with the central bank set to decide on its one-year policy rate on Thursday — the same day May data on industrial production and retail sales are due (and is expected to be another major disappointment). Additional support measures would be welcome, market watchers (i.e., disgruntled China bulls) said, as would a more proactive approach from Beijing.
“It’s the signaling that’s most important,” Altaf Kassam, head of investment strategy & research EMEA at State Street Global Advisors, told Bloomberg TV. “China has the capacity to offer stimulus. It’s in a different place to developed markets and inflation is under control. It’s got a lot of dry powder.”
Dry powder which it has so far refused to use.
END
How the BRI train took the road to Shangri-La
| Robert Hryniak | 3:05 PM (57 minutes ago) |  | |
| to | |||
Have no doubts,China is preparing for War.
No one trusts The Ship of Fools with their war agenda or the globalists at the WEF.
Russian slow walking in Ukraine has given China time to get ready and time for Russia to refine it’s meat grinder in anticipation of what is coming. The country’s supply chains are effectively on a war footing and output is at least 2.5 times what it was before. Even Chechens have fielded 2 complete regiments to Ukraine under contract. Manpower at Russian disposal is far greater than is known or reported. Hundreds of aircraft are positioned and not used or required in current activities.
Ask yourself why NATO is hiring doctors and nurses under contract? Ask yourself why China is taking delivery of 15,000 Saheed 136 drones ? Do you know that the US is sending depleted uranium missiles to Ukraine? Think Russians will take that well ?
This will lead to new deaths in wider scope of combat which will achieve nothing. The average person has zero interest in a wider conflict.
As this month ends watch for the storm because it is coming
https://thecradle.co/article-view/25792/how-the-bri-train-took-the-road-to-shangri-la
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
15 Percent of U.S.-Made Bradleys Already Destroyed in Ukraine.
| Robert Hryniak | 1 | |
to | ||
Good use of money funded by debt?
end
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES//GENERAL
END
VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
DR PANDA:
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
TURBO’ cancers, defined as cancer with diagnosis to death in hours, days, or weeks; seeing rapid progression, aggressive, resistant! Makis is leading on muscle, bone, soft tissue, brain, blood, colon
Huge praise to my colleague Dr. Makis, huge praise for TWC to take him on as a director for the Canadian arm, he is principled, honest, a true solider & smart as a whip! humbles me!
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 12 |
Whatever TWC (TWC.health) is building, it is something and more than most or any who latched onto COVID to purely agrandize and enrich themselves, so I am inspired and grateful to be part of it with McCullough and Risch and Amerling and Gessling and Ponesse and Hodkinson and Trozzi and Makis (and me) et al. Leadership Peter, Brandon, Foster, Gaby et al.
Issue at hand?
‘We continue to see COVID-19 mRNA vaccinated young people come down with extremely aggressive cancers that are resistant to conventional cancer treatments, and that are fatal within months, weeks, days and sometimes even hours.’
We are also seeing a dramatic surge in ‘rapidly progressive breast cancers, lung cancers, gallbladder cancers, pancreatic cancers, lymphomas’.
‘
‘The Tragic story of 44 year old Ohio High school teacher Jeff Clark
Cincinnati, Ohio – Indian Hill High School’s choir and theater director Jeff Clark died Tuesday after a short battle with colon cancer. (click here)
The turn in Jeff Clark’s health began two months ago.
Clark had created a GoFundMe for his “unexpected healthcare needs,” stating his life had “taken a drastic turn” since late March 2023. He was on a Europe trip with choir students when he started experiencing digestive issues.
“Through numerous tests that included blood work, ultrasound, MRI, CT scans, and a colonoscopy, we learned the devastating news that I have colon cancer that has metastasized as 3 tumors in my liver“
Biopsy and rapid progression:
He discovered the primary tumor was colon cancer after a biopsy on May 19, 2023. His loved ones described the cancer as “extremely fast growing.” (click here)
Despite continued biopsies, treatments and therapies, Clark said his health continued to decline. (click here)
The district said Jeff Clark died Tuesday (June 6, 2023) after being transferred into hospice following a complicated surgery due to his advanced stage four colon cancer. (click here)
Indian Hill High School’s Principal Jeff Damadeo aggressively pushed COVID-19 vaccines in his school:
‘
COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis
According to doctors who have been pushing toxic, experimental COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccines cannot cause aggressive cancers, which have been called “turbo cancers”. Yet, we continue to see COVID-19 mRNA vaccinated young people come down with extremely aggressive cancers…
END
Is the FBI running cover for BidenGate? Hunter & POTUS Biden bribe scheme of $5 million each? Seems so as I try to follow this & SHARYL ATTKISSON is on it: “Most suspect FBI cover-up in ‘BidenGate'”
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 12 |
SOURCE:
END
‘Grassley: Burisma Executive Who Allegedly Paid Bidens Has Audio Recordings’; ok, so where are the indictments for this bribe, where is CNN & FOX, what say you Turley since you like opining on Trump?
What a sad state of affairs since it is clear that justice in America is DOA! There is no thing as justice anymore. The left, democrats, RINOs best be warned, what you set in motion will visit you too
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 13 |
SLAY NEWS
EVOL NEWS
| Wuhan Lab Developed Covid Vaccines Pre-Pandemic, Report FindsREAD MORE… |
| LATEST NEWS: |
| Australia bus crash: Ten people killed and 11 injuredRead more…US reportedly requests to rejoin UNESCO in reversal of Trump administration withdrawalRead more…Leftists Apocalyptic After Trump-Appointed Judge Assigned to Jack Smith’s Case in Florida | by Cristina LailaRead more…WATCH: Teacher Compares Parents Opposed To LGBT Ideology In Schools To Armenian Genocide In Bizarre SpeechRead more…Teacher Threatens Kids After They Reject Woke Video She’s Trying to Get Them to WatchRead more…Elon Musk Issues Dire Warning After Trump Indictment, Says DOJ Could Lose Public TrustRead more…Trump’s Lawyer Reveals Advice She Gave Him About Plea Deal in Classified Documents CaseRead more…Senior FBI Official Just Blew 3 Gaping Holes in Agency’s Credibility on Mar-a-Lago RaidRead more… |
VACCINE IMPACT//
Wildfires that are Not Natural – Product of the Geoengineering Agenda
June 12, 2023 4:27 pm
The evidence is mounting that the wildfires in Canada are not natural, but part of the geoengineering agenda. Here are two videos that will help the public understand how these wildfires in Canada are not natural, similar to previous wildfires in California, and are part of the geoengineering agenda. First, the Geoengineering Watch Global Alert News from June 10, 2023, by Dane Wigington, deals extensively with the Canadian wildfires in this episode. He references a report he published back in 2019 that explains how the geoengineering terrorists are able to cause these unnatural wildfires. Everything that Dane predicted back in 2019 is proving to be true, so please take 22 minutes to watch this excellent report that explains how these unnatural fires are formed. Then, after understanding how this can happen, watch this amazing report from The Healthy American by Peggy Hall who just interviewed Robert Brame, a forensic arborist who has analyzed 38 California fires and has come up with hundreds of photographic evidence of IMPOSSIBLE normal fire behavior. Robert provides the evidence to back up the claims that Dane Wigington reports in the first video. This is an AMAZING video!
end
MICHAEL EVERY
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0794 UP 0.0032
USA/ YEN 139.55 UP 0.094 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2571 UP 0.057
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3341 DOWN .0024 (CDN DOLLAR UP 24 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 4.54 PTS OR 0.15%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 32.61 PTS OR 0.50%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.23% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 32.61 PTS OR 0.50%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.54 PTS OR 0.15%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.23%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 584.65 PTS OR 1.80%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1961.45
silver:$24.16
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 102.88 DOWN 34 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s close.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.068% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.414 % DOWN 0 AND 7//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.371 UP 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.059 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4245 UP 6 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0791 UP 0.0029 or 29 basis points
USA/Japan: 140.04 UP .581 OR YEN DOWN 58 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2609 UP 0.0094 OR 94 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0060 OR 60 BASIS pts to 1.3303
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN(7.1581)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1734)
TURKISH LIRA: 23.65 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.414…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.794% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.938 UP 2 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 24.09 points or 0.34%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 132.81 PTS OR 0.82%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 40.45 PTS OR 0.56%
Spain IBEX DOWN 10.70 PTS OR 0.11%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 158.56 PTS OR 0.57%
WTI Oil price 71.37 12: EST
Brent Oil: 76.24 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 84.27 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 64//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4245 UP 6 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.482 UP 14 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0792 UP 0.0029 OR 29 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2609 UP .0094 or 94 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4715% UP 9 BASIS PTS//RISING FAST
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 140.24 UP .779 //YEN DOWN 78 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3312 DOWN .0052 CDN dollar, UP 52 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 69.14
Brent OIL: 74.14
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 3.853%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 3.934%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 12 PTS AT 4.681%
USA dollar index: 102.86 DOWN 36 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 23.64 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 84.30 DOWN 1 AND 66/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 145.79 PTS OR 0.43%
NASDAQ 100 UP 116.55 PTS OR 0.79%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.61 UP 0.40 PTS (2.86)%
GLD: $180.54 DOWN 1.34 OR 0.74%
SLV/ $21.74 DOWN .34 OR 1.54%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Dollar Dives As Yellen Questions Reserve Currency; Bonds & Bullion Battered After Mixed CPI
TUESDAY, JUN 13, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Something for every narrative in this morning’s CPI:
- Headline CPI tumbled (yay, Fed is done forever!);
- Goods inflation rebounding (Fed can pause as Services prices slow);
- Core CPI warmer than expected and still sticky high (Fed can’t stop, but maybe a skip!);
- SuperCore accelerating (Fed should keep hiking!).
Choose your own adventure. The STIRs market chose to kneejerk dovish, but as reality set in rate-hike expectations for September rose (June and July were lower but the latter still high). Moreover, the market has now fully priced out any rate-cuts this year (Dec now pricing in rate 6bps higher than current)…
Source: Bloomberg
The initial reaction in stocks was ‘Buy Mortimer, Buy!”, but as the cash equity market opened we saw the rotation from mega-cap tech to small-caps reassert itself…
By the close, Small Caps were the winner, up over 1%, while The Dow lagged and S&P and Nasdaq were just a smidge better – all the majors were green on the day…
AI stocks soared, but we note that comments by AMD’s CEO that her new chips could mean ‘fewer GPUs’ are required for AI seemed to spook the entire sector…
Meme stocks soared…
Source: Bloomberg
TSLA rallied again today – the 13th straight day higher (a new record win streak) and up 41% in that time…
Notably, ORCL – which hit a fresh all-time record high at the open – spent the rest of the day being sold and ended red, despite strong earnings last night…
Treasuries were clubbed like a baby seal after an initial kneejerk lower on headline CPI.
Source: Bloomberg
2Y yields at highest since March and 5Y yields topped 4.00% for the first time since March 10th…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) kneejerked steeper on CPI then crumbled flatter all day to end at its most inverted of the day…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended lower again – but well off its CPI-spike-lows – back at almost one-month lows
Source: Bloomberg
…as Treasury Secretary Yellen said she “expects a slow decline in the dollar as reserve currency.”
Bitcoin spiked up to the pre-weekend-purge levels before fading back and ending the day unchanged…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold spiked modestly on the headline CPI and was then monkeyhammered back to the lows of its recent range…
Oil prices ended higher, rebounding off yesterday’s lows/resistance…
Finally, just as we saw in the middle of the supply-chain chaos during COVID, firms are pre-buying, bringing forward demand dramatically – and stocks just want to extrapolate the trend…
Which leaves us “here”…
Source: Bloomberg
Can’t be the same, right?
And what to expect tomorrow?
b) THIS MORNING TRADING // CPI
Rate hike odds plunge after the CPI
(zerohedge)
Rate-Hike Odds Plunge After CPI; Stocks & Bonds Jump As Dollar Dumps
TUESDAY, JUN 13, 2023 – 09:04 AM
A mixed bag from CPI if we are completely honest with a little for everybody – headline down but core still super-high; goods prices reaccelerating; and SuperCore accelerating – but overall, the market is seeing doves fly.
Rate-hike odds tumbled for July (and June is now almost guaranteed a pause)…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks jumped, led by the manic Nasdaq of course (though the move is less than expected)…
Treasury yields are down across the curve with the short-0end outperforming…
Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir had a quick take:
Bonds seem happy with headline dropping to 4% annual rate, but monthly at 0.4% for ex food and energy isn’t great (3rd month in a row, so staying close to 5% annualized on any run rate) and came in 5.3%.
Seasonal adjustments should have played a big role on headline as “normally” gas prices go up into summer driving season and we haven’t seen that.
Plus the shelter inflation – shelter is somewhat tame, but reflects price action from last year not current trends where sites like Zillow show rents going higher again.
I’d fade the rally in treasuries on back of this number.
The dollar is down on the dovish print…
Gold and crypto both dropped on the headline print, but quickly reversed those losses. Oil is extending gains with WTI back above $69…
For now, it’s stocks that love this the most… as always, but 0-DTE traders are fading the gains…
Do you feel lucky into tomorrow’s ‘hawkish pause’?
end
END
i c Morning/
end
II) USA DATA/
CPI Tumbles To 2-Year Lows, But Goods Prices Reaccelerate; Inflation Outpaces Wages For 26th Straight Month
TUESDAY, JUN 13, 2023 – 08:45 AM
With CPI set for a ‘historic drop’, the market has FOMO’d into this print (and tomorrow’s FOMC) with the headline print expected to tumble from +4.9% YoY to +4.1% YoY. However, The Fed’s new favorite signal from The BLS is Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter, and that declined to +4.6% YoY – lowest since March 2022
Source: Bloomberg
The headline CPI was expected to rise 0.1% MoM (+4.1% YoY) and it did, but the YoY print dropped to 4.0%. That is the 11th straight monthly decline in the YoY print to the lowest since March 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the longest streak of monthly headline CPI declines since 1921…
Gasoline was the biggest driver of the headline CPI’s decline…
Core CPI was also expected to drop significantly (from 5.5% to 5.2% YoY), but it printed slightly hotter than expected at +5.3% YoY – still significantly elevated but at its lowest since Nov 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Breaking down the drivers, Energy was the biggest deflationary impulse on headline…
The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy. The shelter index increased 0.6 percent over the month after rising 0.4 percent in April. The index for rent rose 0.5 percent in May, as did the index for owners’ equivalent rent. The index for lodging away from home increased 1.8 percent in May after decreasing 3.0 percent in April.
However, Shelter/Rent are down for the second straight month on a YoY basis…
Among the other indexes that rose in May was the index for used cars and trucks, which increased 4.4 percent, and the index for motor vehicle insurance which increased 2.0 percent. The indexes for apparel, personal care, and education also increased in May.
One silver lining is that egg prices continue to come down.
They tumbled 13.8% last month compared with April, that’s the biggest drop since January 1951!
And SuperCore inflation rose 0.24% MoM, up from +0.11% MoM in April…
Services inflation did slow modestly but remains near 40 year highs but goods inflation reaccelerated…
Source: Bloomberg
It appears M2 signaled that the ‘stickiness’ is over and a tsunami of deflation is about to hit…
Source: Bloomberg
And inflation continues to outpace wage gains for the 26th straight month (out of 28 months of Biden’s term)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, here’s what to expect from markets:
- Headline YoY prints 4.9% or higher. This tail risk scenario would like drive rate hike expectations higher and potentially leave us with an unofficial news report that the Fed will hike the next day while keeping July in play for another 25bps hike. It is possible that under this scenario we see the market price in a 50bps hike, too. SPX loses 2.5% – 3%.
- Between 4.5% – 4.8%. This type of hawkish print will do little to dissuade markets from pricing further Fed action especially if we see Core and Core Services accelerate higher. SPX loses 1% -1.5%.
- Between 4.2% – 4.4%. This scenario confirms the disinflationary trend but at the upper-end of the range it would do little to aid the “Fed is done” narrative. The key would be the reaction in the bond market as yields moving higher on the back of this print would provide a near-term headwind for stocks. SPX is flat to up 0.5%.
- Between 4.0% – 4.2%. Our most likely scenario and one that will have the market inching closer to “Mission Accomplished” on breaking inflation. This should also cement the Fed being paused in June with the print more integral to the July Fed meeting. SPX adds 0.75% -1.25%.
- 3.9% or lower. Another unlikely scenario that could see the bond market remove all hiking expectations aiding stocks, but specifically the Tech trade. With another significant step down expected in July, you could see the narrative around rate cuts shift from one relating to recession/bank contagion to one of the Fed moving from less restrictive territory given the progress on inflation. SPX adds 1.5% – 2%.
So, expect the buyers to be in charge for now (but will it last into tomorrow’s FOMC?)
end
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Another CRE bust
(zerohedge)
CRE Doom Loop Accelerates As Westfield Abandons Largest San Fran Mall, Stops Paying $558 Million Loan
TUESDAY, JUN 13, 2023 – 09:45 AM
Downtown San Francisco has been dealt another blow after Westfield and its partner Brookfield Properties made the “difficult decision” to stop payment on a $558 million loan for the metro area’s largest shopping mall after “challenging operating conditions,” the San Francisco Chronicle reported.
“For more than 20 years, Westfield has proudly and successfully operated San Francisco Centre, investing significantly over that time in the vitality of the property. Given the challenging operating conditions in downtown San Francisco, which have led to declines in sales, occupancy and foot traffic, we have made the difficult decision to begin the process to transfer management of the shopping center to our lender to allow them to appoint a receiver to operate the property going forward,” Westfield said.
The mall at 865 Market St has multiple lenders tied to its commercial mortgage-backed securities. Those lenders weren’t disclosed. The receiver determines what happens to the mall next, but during a retail foreclosure, the property usually stays open.
This comes after Nordstrom, which occupies 312,000 square feet in the mall, isn’t renewing its lease in August after nearly four decades of operations. When Nordstrom closes, the mall only be 55% leased, well below the average 93% of other Westfield malls across the US.
Bloomberg obtained a letter to employees from Jamie Nordstrom, the retailer’s chief stores officer, who said the closing of Nordstrom is due to a slump in sales because of lower foot traffic, adding “dynamics of the downtown San Francisco market have changed dramatically over the past several years.” We suspect Nordstrom is referring to the out-of-control crime…
Westfield recently blamed “unsafe conditions” and “lack of enforcement against rampant criminal activity” in the downtown area for Nordstrom’s departure. It also said the mall’s poor performance and crime-ridden surrounding area is an anomaly versus its other properties nationwide.
Westfield and Nordstrom’s exodus comes one week after Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. ceased making payments on a $725 million CMBS loan secured by two of its San Francisco hotels.
Park Hotels also blamed crime in the downtown area, and “San Francisco’s path to recovery remains clouded and elongated by major challenges.”
In the past several months, retailers, including Whole Foods, T-Mobile, and many other stores, have closed up shop after progressive city leadership fails to enforce law and order. San Francisco’s CRE meltdown is only accelerating, and the latest property foreclosures of major hotels and malls might be the start and could stymie any economic recovery.
Meanwhile, the city is also grappling with the tech downturn and regional banking crisis that saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. Another segment of the CRE market faltering is office, where vacancies are high as companies like Salesforce Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are reducing square footage.
The departure of companies and CRE meltdown prompted San Francisco’s Mayor, London Breed, to recently make a U-Turn to fund police after years of promoting the defund the police movement.
Congrats, Democrats, You’ve effectively transformed a once-thriving city into a hellhole. Now watch it implode.
END
USA// COVID
SWAMP STORIES
Grassley: Foreign national who allegedly bribed Joe, Hunter Biden has recordings of them | Just The News
| Robert Hryniak | 7:28 PM (3 hours ago) | | |
| to | |||
Ouch!
END
Burisma Owner Allegedly Recorded Biden Bribe Convos As ‘Insurance Policy’ — And FBI Covered Up: Grassley
MONDAY, JUN 12, 2023 – 08:40 PM
Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) on Monday dropped yet another bombshell in the recent spate of Biden corruption headlines – that the foreign national who allegedly bribed then-VP Joe Biden kept seventeen secret recordings of both Hunter and Joe Biden as an ‘insurance’ policy.
According to the Washington Examiner, that foreign national is Burisma owner Mykola Zlochevsky.
Two of the recordings are allegedly between Joe Biden
“The 1023 produced to that House Committee redacted reference that the foreign national who allegedly bribed Joe and Hunter Biden allegedly has audio recordings of his conversations with them. Seventeen total recordings,” Grassley said during a speech on the Senate floor.
“These recordings were allegedly kept as a sort of insurance policy for the foreign national in case he got into a tight spot. The 1023 also indicates that then-Vice President Joe Biden may have been involved in Burisma employing Hunter Biden,” he continued. “More than that, the FBI made Congress review a redacted unclassified document in a classified facility. That goes to show you the disrespect the FBI has for Congress.”
Watch:
So the FBI covered up the claim that Burisma’s owner had secret recordings between he and the Bidens as an ‘insurance policy,’ according to Grassley.
More via the Examiner;
The U.S. Attorney’s Office in Delaware is handling the ongoing federal criminal investigation into Hunter Biden. It is allegedly up to U.S. Attorney David Weiss, a Trump-appointed holdover, to decide whether to indict the president’s son. In February 2021, Joe Biden asked all Senate-confirmed U.S. attorneys appointed by Trump for their resignations, with Weiss a rare exception.
“What is U.S. Attorney Weiss doing with respect to these alleged Joe and Hunter Biden recordings that are apparently relevant to the high-stakes bribery scheme?” Grassley asked Monday.
Sources previously told the Washington Examiner that the Burisma owner discussed an alleged bribe of $5 million to Joe Biden and of $5 million to Hunter Biden, according to the paid FBI informant who said he heard this from Zlochevsky. The sources said Zlochevsky said he believed it would be difficult to unravel the alleged bribery scheme for at least 10 years because of the number of bank accounts involved.
Zlochevsky’s alleged reference to Joe Biden as the “big guy” appears independent of the apparent reference to the now-president as the “big guy” by a Hunter Biden business associate during negotiations with Chinese intelligence-linked businessmen. The China-related reference occurred in a May 2017 email not made public until October 2020.
And as Just the News notes;
The FD-1023 includes allegations from a confidential human source that the head of Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company, hired Hunter Biden to serve on its board in order to use his father’s influence to stifle an investigation from then-Ukrainian Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin into the firm. Shokin was removed from his post in 2016 and the FD-1023 indicates that two Biden family members received $5 million each for their trouble.
Also on Monday, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) subpoenaed Hunter Biden’s former business partner, Devin Archer, demanding he sit for a deposition this week according to CBS News.
In a letter to Archer’s attorney, Comer wrote that Archer had “played a significant role in the Biden family’s business deals abroad, including but not limited to China, Russia, and Ukraine.”
“Additionally, while undertaking these ventures with the Biden family, your client met with then-Vice President Biden on multiple occasions, including in the White House,” he continued.
Archer’s potential testimony to the GOP House Oversight Committee is a significant milestone in the congressional probe. Archer served alongside Hunter Biden on the board of Burisma, a Ukraine energy company, beginning in 2014. During this period, then-Vice President Joe Biden was deeply involved in Ukraine policy, an era when his opponents say the energy firm was involved in corruption.
An independent forensic review of Hunter Biden’s laptop data by CBS News confirmed hundreds of communications between Hunter Biden and Archer, specifically, emails that suggest working meals were arranged before or after Burisma board meetings. Archer is widely believed to have facilitated Hunter Biden’s entry onto Burisma’s board. -CBS News
Meanwhile, and we’re sure it’s unrelated, Biden had to cancel meetings today to take care of a sudden ‘root canal.’
END
Biden Admin Arrests Donald Trump Who Pleads “Not Guilty” To 37 Charges
TUESDAY, JUN 13, 2023 – 01:34 PM
Update (315PM ET): The Biden administration officially arrested former President Donald Trump on Tuesday for allegedly mishandling classified documents.
Trump arrived at the Miami courthouse Tuesday afternoon where deputy marshals booked him and co-defendant Walt Nauta before taking both men to be fingerprinted and processed; the arrest followed a historic indictment brought by the Justice Department alleging he willfully mishandled top-secret government documents and conspired to hinder US officials’ efforts to recover them.
Trump, who is making a comeback bid for the White House, is the first former president who has faced federal criminal charges. Trump, who appeared wearing a navy blue suit, white shirt and red tie, pleaded not guilty to all 37 counts against him. Trump’s attorney, Todd Blanche, entered the plea on his client’s behalf before the federal magistrate judge.
“We most certainly enter a plea of not guilty,” Blanche said.
Prosecutors claim Trump kept highly sensitive papers at his Mar-a-Lago resort, some of which they say address nuclear programs and military attack plans. The indictment accused Trump of 31 counts of violating the Espionage Act, (which carry prison sentences as long as 10 years) or the willful retention of national security information as well as one count of “conspiracy to obstruct justice,” one count of “withholding a document or record,” one count of “corruptly concealing a document or record,” one count of “concealing a document in a deferral investigation,” one count of “scheme to conceal” and one count of “false statements and representations.” The other charges carry up to 20-year maximum terms.
Ahead of the arraignment, Trump was taken into custody and had his fingerprints taken; he wasn’t required to have his mug shot taken, according to court officials.
Trump is being represented by attorneys Todd Blanche and Chris Kise, at least for now; a person familiar with the situation previously told Bloomberg News that the former president is exploring other options to bring on Florida counsel.
He is appearing before US Magistrate Judge Jonathan Goodman. Following the initial hearing in Miami, the case will move to the West Palm Beach division of the south Florida federal district court; US District Judge Aileen Cannon already has been assigned to preside going forward, barring a recusal fight.
* * *
Update (1357ET): Former President Donald Trump has arrived at the Miami federal courthouse.
“On my way to courthouse. Witch hunt!!! MAGA,” Trump posted to Truth Social while en-route.
* * *
Update (1340ET): Trump has departed his golf club in Doral an is currently making his way to the federal courthouse in Miami.
* * *
Former President Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned this afternoon at the federal courthouse in Miami, where he’s indicated that he will plead not guilty to 37 counts in connection with claims that he mishandled classified documents.
The indictment alleges that the former president made false statements, willfully retained national defense information and conspired to obstruct justice – offenses which carry a maximum of 400 years in prison if convicted on all charges.
Presiding over Trump’s arraignment will be US Magistrate Judge John Goodman, however the case itself will be overseen by US District Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee.
Meanwhile in a Monday night court order, a federal judge ruled that the media won’t be allowed to have any electronic devices in the courthouse during today’s proceedings.
Trump is expected to travel back to his Bedminster, New Jersey golf club afterwards, where he’ll deliver remarks this evening.
Black Trump supporters rally
Outside the Miami Courthouse, a group of around two dozen “Blacks for Trump” supporters have gathered to rail against the indictment, NBC News reports.
One member, Maurice Symonette, who calls himself “Michael the Black Man,” slammed the indictment “fake” and “filled with fluff.” Symonette is a staple at Trump rallies and is a former member of the Nation of Yahweh, a Black separatist cult, and one of 16 members charged with murder and attempted murder more than two decades ago.
This is the largest demonstration so far, where for more than an hour a lone supporter dressed in royal regalia waved a Trump-DeSantis sign. -NBC News
On Monday, Miami Police Chief Manny Morales said that the city is bracing for potentially thousands of protesters at the courthouse, and has been coordinating with state and federal partners “to ensure that we maintain not only peace and order,” but also to allow demonstrators “to express themselves and their First Amendment rights.”
THE KING REPORT
 | |
| The King Report June 13, 2023 Issue 7010 | Independent View of the News |
| Several Chinese lenders cut yuan deposit rates from Monday Analysts expect the deposit rate cuts will provide more room for a further cut soon by the central bank in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to expand credit and boost investment spending… Banks including China Merchants Bank Co Ltd, China Citic Bank Corp Ltd, and China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd cut rates on demand deposits by 5 basis points (bps) to 0.2%, the banks’ websites showed… https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/several-chinese-lenders-cut-yuan-deposit-rates-monday-2023-06-12/ US ‘preparing to evacuate Americans in Taiwan’ as China tensions boil over The planning has reportedly been underway for a minimum of six months, although “it’s heated up over the past two months or so,” according to a senior US intelligence official speaking on the condition of anonymity as he wasn’t authorized to discuss the issue told The Messenger… https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-preparing-to-evacuate-americans-in-taiwan-as-china-tensions-boil-over/ar-AA1croNO Americans Should Prepare for Cyber Sabotage from Chinese Hackers, US Official Warns https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-06-12/americans-should-prepare-for-cyber-sabotage-from-chinese-hackers-us-official-warns Last Thursday, after the WSJ reported that China was paying Cuba for a spy base against the USA, Team Biden denied the report. Then they said, ‘it was an ongoing situation.’ Now, they admit that China has a Cuban spy base. White House Backtracks: Admits China Had a Spy Base in Cuba for Years, Blames Trump Republicans are pushing back and lashing out, with Rep. Mike Turner, chair of the House Intelligence Committee, saying Biden is “ignoring” the threat from China. “In less than 48 hours, officials from the Biden administration have contradicted themselves multiple times about whether or not the Chinese Communist Party is spying on the United States. This is unacceptable.”… https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-backtracks-admits-china-had-spy-base-cuba-years-blames-trump @paulsperry_: First the Chinese spy balloon, now the Chinese spy station. This is twice now that Biden has allowed China to conduct military incursions in our hemisphere — and twice that he has lied about it. #BeijingBiden #Compromised JPMorgan will reportedly pay $290 million to settle Epstein victims’ claims. https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/jpmorgan-agrees-settle-jeffrey-epsteins-victims ESUs (September ‘U’ is now the front month) traded moderately higher but sideways during early Nikkei trading on the usual Sunday night buying. ESMs and stocks then declined during the final hour of Nikkei trading because there were few organic buyers to absorb traders’ positions. ESUs commenced a rally during the final minutes of Nikkei trading that persisted until 5 ET. ESMs and stocks then sank until the US repo market opened at 7 ET. The usual suspects then bought stuff for the expected rally into and after the NYSE opening. But there were few organic buyers in the market during early NYSE trading. ESUs and stocks retreated moderately. ESUs and stocks then vacillated in modest range until Europe closed at 11:30 ET. The usual suspects then aggressively bought ESMs and stocks. The rally plodded higher until 14:44 ET. Then, someone juiced ESUs, driving them 17 handles higher by 15:16 ET. Did someone obtain inside info about CPI? A modest rally then took ESUs and stocks to daily highs at the close. Fangs and related trading sardines led the rally, which is an expiry week staple. Mall operator Westfield gives up San Francisco Centre, latest business to pull back from city Last month, a Westfield spokesperson attributed Nordstrom’s closing to “unsafe conditions for customers, retailers, and employees.”… (As Obama asserted, “Elections have consequences!” https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/12/business/westfield-giving-up-sf-mall/index.html Positive aspects of previous session ESMs and stocks rallied robustly in the afternoon of pattern buying for expiration and Fed Week Fangs and trading sardines soared on pattern buying for expiry: Nasdaq 100 +1.76%, +22.77% for Q2 Negative aspects of previous session Bonds were down sharply for most of the session. They closed modestly lower. The surging stock market could force the Fed to hike rates tomorrow. The biggest political scandal in the history of the USA is percolating. Retailers, and other businesses, flight from big-blue US cities is continuing. Where is the tipping point? Ambiguous aspects of previous session With stocks breaking out to the upside, can the Fed afford to pause? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4327.81 Previous session High/Low: 4340.13; 4304.37 (GOP Sen.) Grassley: Burisma executive who allegedly paid Biden has audio recordings of conversations with Joe, Hunter – Sen. Chuck Grassley said Monday that the Burisma executive who allegedly paid Joe Biden and Hunter Biden kept 17 audio recordings of his conversations with them as an “insurance policy,” citing the FBI FD-1023 form that the bureau briefed congressional lawmakers on. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/grassley-burisma-executive-who-allegedly-paid-biden-has-audio-recordings-of-conversations-with-joe-hunter Grassley: FBI Redacted References to Recordings in Biden Allegation Shared with Congress On the same day that the FBI provided a redacted version of the 1023 to the House Oversight Committee, the Justice Department announced that former President Trump had been indicted and charged with 37 crimes relating to his alleged mishandling of classified records. Attorney General Garland signed off on prosecuting Trump for conduct similar to what Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton engaged in. Two standards of justice in this country will turn our constitutional Republic upside down. Thanks to the political infection within the Biden Justice Department and FBI, we’re well along the road for that to happen… Director Wray placed redactions on a document that’s already unclassified…the FBI made Congress review a redacted unclassified document in a classified facility. That goes to show you the disrespect the FBI has for Congress… It’s clear that the Justice Department and FBI will use every resource to investigate candidate Trump, President Trump and former President Trump. Based on the facts known to Congress and the public, it’s clear that the Justice Department and FBI haven’t nearly had the same laser focus on the Biden family. Special Counsel Jack Smith has used a recording against former President Trump. Well, what’s U.S. Attorney Weiss doing with respect to these alleged Joe and Hunter Biden recordings that are apparently relevant to a high-stakes bribery scheme?… I want everyone to remember, that I have read the unredacted version. https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/remarks/grassley-fbi-redacted-references-to-recordings-in-biden-allegation-shared-with-congress @DC_Draino: Remember when they impeached President Trump over a phone call to Ukraine after he started looking into Joe Biden’s financial dealings? Well now you know why… Biden gets two-day root canal after report president eats ‘like a child’ President Biden backed out of greeting college athletes and hosting NATO’s secretary-general Monday to complete a two-day root canal — after a report last month described tension within Biden’s inner circle over the ice cream-loving chief executive eating “like a child.”… Jean-Pierre said that among White House staff, “we all found out this morning internally” about the agenda-disrupting procedure… https://trib.al/mEjoo2a @Brick_Suit: What are the odds that Biden cancels scheduled appearances for a same-day root canal on the very same day that Sen Grassley reveals he has audio tapes of a Biden/Burisma bribery phone call? Mark Zuckerberg bans Elon Musk from Facebook, Elon responds “Maybe Mark is just jealous that we’re building cars and rockets while he’s still trying to figure out how to keep his platform from being a haven for fake news and trolls.”… https://spacexmania.com/just-in-mark-zuckerberg-bans-elon-musk-from-facebook-elon-responds/ Covid-19 Created in Wuhan Lab Through Classified Bioweapons Program: US Investigators Researchers in Wuhan, China working with the Chinese military were genetically manipulating the world’s deadliest coronaviruses to create a new mutant virus right around the time that the Covid-19 pandemic began, according to the Sunday Times… The institute was engaged in increasingly risky experiments on coronaviruses it gathered from bat caves in southern China. Initially, it made its findings public and argued the associated risks were justified because the work might help science develop vaccines. This changed in 2016 after researchers discovered a new type of coronavirus in a mineshaft in Mojiang in Yunnan province where people had died from symptoms similar to Sars. -Sunday Times According to US investigators, the WIV embarked on a classified program to make the mineshaft viruses more transmissible to humans, which they believe led to the creation of Covid-19, which then leaked into the city of Wuhan following a lab accident… As Shi was creating her eight mutant viruses, the WIV took ‘another perilous leap forward’ with their work on the Shitou cave viruses – in what Ebright describes as the most dangerous coronavirus experiment ever undertaken – which was funded in part by EcoHealth’s grant money… https://t.co/IZAQGACaJY @VDHanson: We are entering a new phase of the war, in which casual reference to hitting targets inside Russia, of nonstop bragging about the superiority of lethal Western weapons over their inferior Russian counterparts, of schadenfreude over the flailing Russians, and reports of horrendous losses to both Ukraine and Russia are all earning eerie nuclear backtalk that we have not heard in 60 years. @GordonJohnson19: Does the @federalreserve want “OUT OF CONTROL RAGING” inflation to get worse (i.e., they don’t CARE)? So, today, we learned that the Zillow Observed Rent Index (“ZORI”), which is based on asking rents (i.e., rents advertised by landlords who hope a tenant will sign when the lease renews) surged +0.64% month-over-month (“MoM”) in May, or the steepest increase since Aug. 2022, & up from the already high +0.58% MoM surge seen in Apr. 2023, after Mar. 2023’s +0.45% MoM gain. Stated differently, on the May gain, the ZORI hit a new record of $2,048. In fact, annualized, May’s gain translated into a +7.7% rate. In short, given: (a) the Fed has previously claimed victory on housing inflation (https://ketk.com/news/fed-hikes-and-default-fears-heres-what-could-be-next-for-the-housing-market/) as a result of its recent spate of rate hikes, and (b) rent accounts for ~33% of CPI inflation, split across two rent factors (i.e., Owners Equivalent Rent [“OER’] and CPI rent, where OER is the larger of the two, accounting for ~25% of CPI), it seems, using the May data from the ZORI Index, the Fed appears to have been (very) premature to suggest to markets it had “licked” housing inflation… https://twitter.com/GordonJohnson19/status/1668342324009766912 @Ross__Hendricks: Exciting to see the first “new bull market” in history that begins at 20x forward earnings Today – May CPI will dictate trading before and through the NYSE opening. May CPI is expected to be 0.2% m/m & 4.1% y/y. May Core CPI is expected to be 0.4% m/m & 5.2% y/y. A long-awaited FOMC two-day meeting commences today. Barring a shockingly higher CPI or Core CPI, the May CPI Report is unlikely to impact the Fed expected pause. Traders have broken out the S&P 500 Index and the Naz 100. Will the action force more short covering and momo buying? This could be a wild expiration week! The biggest political scandal in US history is unfolding: The Bidens, FBI, DoJ, CIA, and other Deep State entities could all be involved! At some point, this will impact US financial assets! ESUs are -0.25 at 21:00 ET. May NFIB Small Biz Optimism is expected to be 88.4 S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4158; 100-day MA: 4087; 150-day MA: 4033; 200-day MA: 3978 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,531; 100-day MA: 33,330; 150-day MA: 33,406; 200-day MA: 32,772 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4031.46 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4242.55 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4301.00 triggers a sell signal @bennyjohnson: Alphabet cult influencers strip down on White House grounds and jiggle their exposed “body parts” for the clout at an official White House event. After desecrating the White House Joe Biden thanks them. This is what Democrats have done to our White House. https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1668412893229088768 Proof It Was a Setup? Trump Was 1st POTUS in 40 Years Who Feds Didn’t Help Archive Classified Docs, Attorneys Say https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/06/proof-setup-trump-1st-potus-40-years-feds/ @ggreenwald: Leon Panetta leaked classified docs to Zero Dark Thirty producers for a pro-Obama movie. Obama’s CIA Director David Petraeus gave the most sensitive docs in the USG – names of covert agents – to his mistress. Hillary and Biden had them strewn over their house. It’s all a joke. https://t.co/jSgorpO00W @paulsperry_: Special Counsel Jack Smith’s late mother-in-law Bell Chevigny was a George Soros Senior Justice Fellow at the Open Society Foundation, according to records, and his Biden donor wife makes films backed by Soros, federal tax records show. Presidential Records Act Is Not a Criminal Statute The Presidential Records Act gives former president Donald Trump the right under law to maintain custody and control of papers, classified or not. That’s the controlling, governing statute. And its civil, not criminal. In 1978 Congress specifically granted an exclusive right to former presidents to keep presidential papers, including classified documents. The Justice Department not only endorsed it, but their lawyers defended it in court in the Bill Clinton case a decade ago… https://thegreggjarrett.com/presidential-records-act-is-not-a-criminal-statute/ Some legal eagles claim Team Biden indicted DJT knowing there are no crimes but hoping that DJT would do something criminal (lie, obstruct justice, etc.) in response to the indictments. @paulsperry_: House Judiciary has requested AG Garland, under threat of subpoena, turn over all emails/texts/notes of meetings about FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago from the following FBI/DOJ officials: Jay Bratt (DNC donor), Paul Abbate, Matthew Olsen (Obama donor), George Toscas, Steven D’Antuono Office of Special Counsel Says Karine Jean-Pierre Violated Hatch Act Before 2022 Midterms – OFC Then “Closed the Matter without Further Action” – Recall, President Trump’s Secretary of Interior Ryan Zinke was forced to step down from his post for violating the Hatch Act because he tweeted a photo of Trump socks… https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/06/office-special-counsel-says-karine-jean-pierre-violated/ The VP of the USA, Kamala Harris: “We will work together, and continue to work together, to address these issues…and to work together as we continue to work, operating from the new norms, rules, and agreements, that we will convene to work together…We will work on this together.” https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1525656051210760192 NvrBackDown24: Gov. @RonDeSantis: “None of” Trump’s 3 Supreme Court appointees “are at the same level of Justices Thomas and Justice Alito. I think they are the gold standard, and so my justices will be along the lines of a Sam Alito and a Clarence Thomas.” (DeSantis hits DJT over his appointees) https://twitter.com/NvrBackDown24/status/1668304459431297026 Fox sends Tucker Carlson cease-and-desist letter Fox News has sent a cease-and-desist letter to Tucker Carlson as he ramps up a competing series on Twitter that drew a combined 169 million views for its first two episodes, Axios has learned… Carlson is making a First Amendment argument for posting on Twitter, and asserts that Fox has committed material breaches of his contract… https://www.axios.com/2023/06/12/fox-letter-tucker-carlson-twitter end | |
GREG HUNTER
I will see you on WEDNESDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
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