JULY 13//GOLD CLOSED UP $3.35 TO $1959.40//SILVER AGAIN HAS A STELLAR DAY UP $.64 TO $24.72//PLATINUM ROSE BY $23.30 TO $975.50 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $18.30 TO $1299.95//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//COVID-VACCINE UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//USA DATA: PPI TUMBLES//UNADJUSTED JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 6 MONTH HIGHS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
190 H BMO CAPITAL 10 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 27 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 3 690 C ABN AMRO 30 14 737 C ADVANTAGE 12 8
JPMorgan stopped 0/52 contracts.
FOR JULY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT: 52 NOTICES FOR 5200 OZ or 0.1462 TONNES
total notices so far: 2386 contracts for 238,600 oz (7.4214 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 126 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 630,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3971 for 19,855,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $3.35
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.64 AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 462.941 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY AN UNBELIEVABLY HUGE SIZED 5224 CONTRACTS TO 125,506 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE $1.00 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A GIGANTIC SIZED 1166 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH . CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1166 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.00). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS ATMOSPHERIC GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7499CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 0MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 2275 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 545,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP.//NEW STANDING: 20.690 MILLION OZ/ // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (1166CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – 940 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 days, total 4808 contracts: OR 24.040 MILLION OZ (686 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 24.040 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 24.040 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5224 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.00 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2275 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 16.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 545,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP: TOTAL NOW STANDING 20.690 MILLION OZ///// .. WE HAVE A HUGE ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF7499 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 1166//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (1166) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.
WE HAD 126 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 630,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 22,071 CONTRACTS TO 505,241 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED: 1435 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 22,071 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $24.50 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1462 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 7.4401 TONNES// + /AN UNBELIEVABLY HUGE (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 29,245 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $24.50 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 24,749 OI CONTRACTS (72.979 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2678CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 505,241
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,749 CONTRACTS WITH 22,071 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 2678 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,749CONTRACTS OR 76.979 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 29,245 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2678 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (22,071) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 24,749 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1462 TONNE QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 7.4401 TONNES ///// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: UNBELIEVABLY HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 29,245 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 14,390 CONTRACTS OR 1,439,000 OZ OR 44.76 TONNES IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2055 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 44.76 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 44.76/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.26% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 44.76 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 5524 CONTRACTS OI TO 125,606 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 2275 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 2275and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2275 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 5224 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2275 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7499 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 37.495 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 40.34 PTS OR 1.26% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 489.69 PTS OR 2.60% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 475.40 OR 1.49% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.55 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1632 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1705 /Oil UP TO 75.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 80.12 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN UNBELIEVABLY HUGE SIZED 22,041CONTRACTS UP TO 505,241 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $24.50 ON WEDNESDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2678 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 2678 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2678 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED TOTAL OF 24,749 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2678LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 22,041 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $24.50//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS AN UNBELIEVABLY HUGE 29,245 CONTRACTS (THIRD DAY IN A ROW). THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (7.4401) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 7.4401 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $24.50) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 24,749 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ZERO TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE MASSIVE TAS ISSUED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 81.44PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.11974 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1462 TONNES//TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY GOLD: 7.4401 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $24.50.
WE HAD – REMOVED 1435 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 24,749 CONTRACTS OR 2,474,900 OZ OR 76.979 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2386 notices 238,600 OZ 7.421 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
1 dealer deposit:
i)Into Brinks dealer: 99.400 oz
total dealer deposits: 99.400 oz
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks 419,11 oz
total withdrawals: 419,16 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 59 contracts having LOST 0 contracts. We had 47 contracts served on Wednesday. Thus we gained 47 contracts or an additional 4700 oz of gold will stand at the comex.
AUGUST LOST 4718 contracts DOWN to 305,818 contracts
SEPT gained 92 contracts to stand at 545
We had 52 contracts filed for today representing 5200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 52 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2386 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (59 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 52 x 100 oz per contract equals 239,200 OZ OR 7.4401 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULYcontract month: No of notices filed so far (2386) x 100 oz + (59) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (53) x 100 oz) which equals 239,200oz standing OR 7.4401 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 7.4401 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,282,501.863 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,833,484.390 (368.07 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,449,017.473 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,954,210 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 309.617 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 13
//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
824,228.228 oz LOOMIS MANFRA
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
126 CONTRACT(S) (630,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
167 contracts (835,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
3971 Contracts (19,855,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposits
total dealer deposit: 0 oz
total dealer deposits: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposits: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.982 million oz/277.015 million =50.39% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of Loomis: 720,884.900 oz
ii)Out of Manfra: 103,343.328 oz
adjustments: 1..customer to dealer Manfra
i) 558,124.400 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.992 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 277.015 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 293 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 198 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 307 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 109 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 545,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN JULY.
AUGUST GAINED 33 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 644
SEPT HAS A GAIN OF 4753 CONTRACTS UP TO 107,746
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 126 for 630,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 85,421 strong /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 85,460 STRONG
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3971 x 5,000 oz = 19,855,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(293) and the number of notices served upon today 126 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month: 3971 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (293) – number of notices served upon today (126 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 20.690 million oz +
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES
JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
GLD INVENTORY: 914.66 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 462.941 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Jim Grant: We Could Be Heading Toward A Generational Bear Market In Bonds
Financial commentator and investment guru Jim Grant has similar concerns. In a recent interview on Odd Lots Podcast, Grant said he thinks we’re at the beginning of a long-term trend of a weak bond market with higher interest rates that could last decades.
The Federal Reserve has pushed its fund rate to over 5% to fight inflation, but Grant called the central bank “dogmatic” and its inflation-fighting toolbox “rusty.”
There’s a bureaucratic dogmatism in the Fed. They’ve got these algebraic models, my goodness, how formidable they look on a blackboard, but they don’t actually function very well so far as the future’s concerned. And the Fed was in fact, dogmatic through 2021 into 2022 buying mortgages recently, I think up to March 2022. So you asked about their inflation-fighting tools? They’re rusty.”
Grant was asked why we haven’t seen interest rate hikes have more impact on the economy. Housing prices have dropped, but not substantially. Americans are still piling up credit card debt. The economy appears to be limping along just fine.
Grant said that he thinks something is going to break — it’s just a matter of time.
I was of the view that try as Jay Powell might to emulate Paul Volcker, Mr. Powell is not working with Paul Volcker’s economy. There is much more debt, therefore much more fragility.”
Grant cited the big increase in private credit as an example.
People are head over heels over private credit. They contend that this is a not quite Nvidia-quality breakthrough in the history of finance. But it’s up there. And, but you know, private credit is a manifestation of the imperative to build leverage — whether it’s on the federal level or the corporate level, not quite so much, in recent years, on the individual level. So there’s a lot of leverage. And I would say Tracy with respect to the paradox of nothing breaking much yet, just be patient. I expected it might.”
Grant pointed out that what is inevitable is always certain. But it’s not always punctual.
I look back on some of my work there and I was rather impatient for the inevitable difficulties and crises attending upon this credit creation jag. I thought certainly it was gonna happen like Tuesday or so. So it’s like the elapsed time between the first signs of house prices going way above trend on the one hand and the onset of the housing-related credit difficulties of 2007, 2008 and 2009. That period of six years was approximately 20 years in journalistic time if you were a little bit too insistent upon.”
Jim was asked when we hit a tipping point when financial solutions to financial problems are no longer viable. He said, “A tipping point was six years ago.”
It was a long time ago, but it did not tip. So why can’t it go on forever, I don’t know? They’re always these excesses that do crop up. They are met with additional stimulus intervention, manipulation. And still we go on. Who was it who said there is a deal of ruin in a country? I guess it was Adam Smith. And there’s a great deal of ruin, so to speak, in finance and manipulated finance. And one of the singularities of the present time is the American position in international finance. You know, this country emits the reserve currency, which means that we consume much more than we produce. We finance the difference with dollar bills that only we can lawfully print at a most reasonable price of like nothing. And we remit the dollars to our creditors, mainly in Asia, say, and those dollars don’t leave the country because they come back in the shape of Treasuries and mortgages purchased for the portfolio interests of our accreditors. So that is kind of a new thing in the long historical sweep. It’s not so new in terms of years, but in terms of phenomena, the reserve currency country being a chronic big debtor, that’s kind of a different thing. Reserve currency country living on the kindness of strangers, so to speak. That’s not exactly writ. The more one learns, the less dogmatic one becomes about timing, certainly.”
Grant addressed the recent run-up in stocks despite the high-interest rate environment and hawkish Fed rhetoric. He said it’s due to “the muscle memory of a generation of 0% interest rates and all-you-can-eat credit.”
The great all-you-can-eat credit buffet table was open for business for 10 years. Interest rates fell from 1981 until a couple of, actually a couple of weeks ago. It’s called 40 years. So that’s a lot of muscle memory. Central banks have intervened predictably until fairly recently when markets shuttered. Look what happened in 2019. You know, the repo market, this obscure recondite thing caught a head cold in September and the Fed resumes QE and said it’s not QE. Yeah, it was QE. So naturally people assume that the upside is the side to be on. It takes a true contrarian, almost a bloody-minded contrarianiess to butt one’s head against that. But it’s a living. So why do people do it? Because A) because cyclical memories are short and cycles are recurrent, and B) because it has ‘worked’ — that phrase ought to be in quotes.”
Grant said he thinks we’re about to enter “a long cycle of rising interest rates” and a “generational” bear market in bonds.
The great question of whether rates are mean or reverting? So what characterizes interest rate movements is their generation length phasing, not necessarily cycles, but there are phases.
Interest rates fell for the last quarter of the 19th century, rose for the first 20 years of the 20th, fell from 1920, ‘46 rose in ‘46 to ‘81, fell from ‘81 to, call it, 2021. So at each juncture there was some mark of excess, some mark of speculative excess blow-off. Certainly in 1981, you know, a 20%+ funds rate seemed excessive. A 14% yield in 1984 in long bond when the CPI was printing at four or five, that seemed excessive. 10 percentage points of real yield — that seemed a lot.
So I speculate that we are embarked on a long cycle of rising rates. And I say that first of all, for reasons of pattern recognition, there’s no theory behind it. But I observe that in 2020 and ‘21, some unimaginably large number of debt securities were priced to yield less than nothing. Bloomberg keeps this particular figure. And I bet still, perhaps you could check me on this, I bet still there’s like a hundred billion of bonds priced to yield less than nothing worldwide. But there were $18 trillion, I think at the peak.
The most extraordinary expression of unqualified bullishness on an asset class because it had the name of “bonds” which had been falling in yield, rising in price. So no, it would not surprise me at all if we were embarked on something resembling a generation length bear market in bonds, meaning rising yields and falling prices that would fit the form.
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Brien Lundin: Central banking’s end game is here, so join us in New Orleans
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-07-12 18:19Section: Daily Dispatches
You’ll join GATA’s Bill Murphy and Chris Powell.
* * *
6:23p ET Wednesday, July 12, 2023
Dear Friend:
I’m writing you today with excitement and urgency — because we’ve just opened registration for this year’s New Orleans Investment Conference, to be held Wednesday through Saturday, November 1-4, and it may be the most eagerly awaited event in our 49-year history.
Here’s why: The end game Is here.
If you have been reading my newsletters and posts over the past year, you know I’ve been tracking the four-decade-plus trend of ever-easier money from the Federal Reserve and other central banks.
Ever since Paul Volcker raised rates and killed off inflation in the early 1980s, every economic hiccup, from mere slowdowns to all-out crises, has been met by monetary easing. But this is important: In each instance, interest rates were lowered but the central bankers were never able to raise them back to near the previous range.
The result was that the markets and the economy became addicted to ever-easier money.
Thus, they needed so much more as the Great Financial Crisis erupted in 2008 — and they got it: The Fed drove rates to zero and began printing money through quantitative easing, sending the Fed’s balance sheet up to $4.5 trillion over the next five years.
Then came Covid — and the Fed duplicated everything it did after 2008, but instead of five years, the Fed did it all in about five days!
So with the next crisis — which we all know is coming — the Fed is going to absolutely blow the doors off.
Here’s why I’m writing you now: The next big event that forces the Fed to open the monetary floodgates lies ahead, and likely much sooner than most expect.
Whether it’s simply the expected recession that so many indicators are pointing toward, or something breaking in the stock market, the bond market, or the banking sector, we know it’s coming.
And when it arrives, the Fed will be forced to do much more easing than it ever did before — catapulting gold, silver, commodities, and mining stocks to dizzying heights.
This is why I’m assembling the perfect roster of experts to not only analyze what’s going on, but also predict what’s about to happen and give you specific, actionable advice to profit.
Consider those who have told us they’re coming to talk to you so far:
Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth. Lyn Alden. George Gammon. Rick Rule. Dominic Frisby. Brent Johnson. Dave Collum. Peter Boockvar. James Stack. Peter Schiff. Jim Iuorio. Tavi Costa. Adrian Day. Adam Taggart. The Real Estate Guys. Gwen Preston. Brent Cook.
Also, Mark Skousen. Nick Hodge. Bob Prechter. Chris Powel. Economic Ninja. Albert Lu. Gary Alexander. Dana Samuelson. Jeff Hirsch. Steve Hochberg. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden. Bill Murphy. Gerardo Del Real. Omar Ayales. Rich Checkan. Keith Weiner. …
… and, of course, yours truly!
We’ll also have a special in-person briefing by none other than Matt Taibbi, the renowned journalist who broke open the Twitter files and Russian collusion scandals.
If you want to know how the Deep State is trampling your liberties, and their next steps, you won’t want to miss this exclusive report from Taibbi, just for New Orleans Conference attendees.
Again, there’s much more to come, since we’’e still in the early stages of planning this year’s event, and I’ve got some more big surprises in store.
But even at this early date, one thing seems certain: New Orleans 2023 is going to be a blockbuster.
We are now opening registration for New Orleans 2023 — and I urge you to be among the first to secure your place.
You see, I don’t think I remember an investment event as eagerly awaited as this one.
Everything is pointing toward a major new bull run in metals and commodities. Interest rates are peaking and gold and bonds are beginning to look past the pause toward the next inevitable turn downward in the rate cycle.
When that happens, the metals are going to soar, and the strategies and picks you’ll get at New Orleans ’23 should multiply those gains.
I fully expect our entire hotel room block to sell out this year, so you’ll have to act soon to make sure you’ll get in.
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Delaying will only cost you money. Just click on the link below to learn more and join us in New Orleans:
The U.S. SEC filed a lawsuit against the bankrupt crypto lender on July 13 followed by news reports about the arrest of the former CEO Alex Mashinsky.
The SEC alleges that Celsius and Mashinsky “misrepresented Celsius’s central business model and the risks to investors by claiming that Celsius did not make uncollateralized loans, the company did not engage in risky trading, and the interest paid to investors represented 80% of the company’s revenue.”
The SEC is demanding that Mashinsky be prohibited from buying, offering, or selling cryptocurrencies, to be disgorged of “all ill-gotten gains in the form of any benefits of any kind derived from the illegal conduct alleged” in the complaint, and for the former CEO pay civil penalties to be determined by the court.
The former CEO was reportedly arrested after a probe into the company’s collapse, reported Bloomberg citing people familiar with the matter.
Mashinsky was found guilty by investigators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which concluded that the former CEO broke numerous U.S. regulations before the company’s implosion in 2022.
The investigation against the troubled crypto lender began after New York Attorney General sued Mashinsky on Jan. 5.
The NYAG alleged that the former CEO misled investors and caused billions of dollars in losses.
The trouble for Celsius and its former CEO began in June last year when the crypto lender abruptly suspended withdrawals on the platform.
On June 16, 2022, securities regulators from five different U.S. states opened an investigation into Celsius, and within a month, the platform filed for bankruptcy.
The arrest of Mashinsky and the lawsuit against Celsius comes within months of the SEC’s lawsuits against crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase.
Celsius network didn’t immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s requests for comments.
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1632
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1705
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 40.34 PTS OR 1.26%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 48.69 PTS OR 2.60%
2. Nikkei closed UP 475.40 PTS OR 1.49%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.87 EURO RISES TO 1.1176 UP 35 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.461 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 138.45/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.4475***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.126*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.484…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.856
3j Gold at $1959.75 silver at: 24.27 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 96 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 89.91//
3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 80 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 138.45// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO 0.461% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8627 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9642 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.825 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.932 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.664 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.16…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 15 BASIS PTS AT 4.5005
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Hit Fresh 52 Week High, Dollar Sinks In Global Post-CPI Rally
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 08:12 AM
For the second day in a row, US equity futures are higher as part of a global risk-on move one which has sent spoos to fresh 52 weeks highs, and fast approaching the Jan 2022 all time high. Tech is again outperforming led by the “magnificent 7″ megacaps following the unexpectedly soft CPI print which sparked expectations that after the July hike the Fed is done, and has accelerated the dollar tumble. As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures were 0.3% higher to 4,522 while Nasdaq futures rose 0.6%. Bond yields and the USD continue their move lower, with steepening in the belly of the curve. The DXY has made a 52-wk low today. The plunge in the dollar means that commodities are bid with strength across all 3 segments; keep an eye on Ags as India may move to restrict rice exports and the Black Sea Grain Initiative expires next week. Today’s macro data focus is on PPI, which will boost confidence that yesterday’s CPI print was not a fluke. Keep an eye on PPI in the future as China’s negative PPI and the lack of money supply growth may put accelerating downward pressure on input costs. Bank earnings kick off tomorrow.
In premarket trading, airline stocks rose after Delta Air Lines increased its adjusted earnings per share outlook for the year and reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results; Delta shares jumped as much as 4.2% premarket. Walt Disney shares rose 1.3% in premarket trading after the entertainment company extended the contract of Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger for another two years. US-listed Chinese stocks also rose as Beijing urged Washington to immediately end unilateral sanctions on Chinese companies to help bilateral economic and trade cooperation. Alibaba (BABA) +1.4%, Baidu (BIDU) +2.5%, JD.com (JD) +2.8%, Bilibili (BILI) +3.0%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
SoFi Technologies Inc. drops 4.5% after the US online lender was cut to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.
Viasat Inc. plunges 22% as the company said an unexpected event occurred during reflector deployment that may materially impact the performance of the ViaSat-3 Americas satellite.
Trade Desk shares rise 3.8% in premarket trading, after Nasdaq said the stock would replace Activision Blizzard in the Nasdaq 100.
Ess Tech and MillerKnoll Inc. are among the most active industrials stocks in early premarket trading, gaining 8.6% and falling 5.9% respectively
Delta Air Lines is up 4.4% after increasing its adjusted earnings per share outlook for the year and reporting stronger- than-expected second-quarter results.
Axonics gains 0.9% after shares were initiated with an overweight rating at KeyBanc Capital Markets, which sees opportunity for improved investor sentiment as the medtech company addresses some near-term pressures.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals rises 7% after BofA Global Research raised the recommendation to buy from neutral.
Carvana falls 5.8% as JPMorgan cut its recommendation on the used-car retailer to underweight from neutral, saying shares have again disconnected from fundamentals.
Coinbase fell as much as 2.1% as Barclays cut its recommendation on the biggest US crypto exchange to underweight from equal-weight, saying the regulatory overhang on the stock is likely to last for some time.
Cryoport shares plummet 29% after the cryogenic storage firm reported preliminary second-quarter revenue that missed estimates. Analysts saw the update as disappointing, with Stephens noting that it raised a “variety of questions.”
Intercept Pharmaceuticals gains 9.6% after HC Wainwright & Co. double-upgraded the company’s recommendation to buy from sell saying that strong interim results from a mid-stage trial “look to breathe new, longer life to the franchise.”
LL Flooring tumbles 4.9% as Loop Capital downgrades to sell from hold, writing that the company faces a tough macroeconomic environment, with declining home sales and interest rates likely to rise.
Meta Platforms rises 1.4% as Cowen upgrades its rating to outperform from market perform, citing factors including Threads monetization optionality. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley boosts its price target.
Snowflake Inc. shares are up 2% after Scotiabank upgrades the software company to sector outperform from sector perform.
In case it wasn’t clear yet, investors are piling back into equities as concerns over higher interest rates and a potential recession ease. Data Wednesday showed the US inflation rate slid to a two-year low, while today’s PPI report is expected to show a decline from a year ago.
“The question now is whether the market continues to trade off the easing inflation narrative,” ING Bank NV strategists led by Antoine Bouvet wrote in a note. “There is an excuse to do so as today’s PPI report is also expected to be friendly.”
One driver for the surge in risk assets is a rout in the dollar; some top money managers said the dollar is poised for further losses as US exceptionalism wanes. Hedge funds turned net sellers of the dollar for the first time since March, according to data from the CFTC. “The recent USD underperformance reflects a qualitative shift in market comfort with being short USD as the terminal Fed policy rate looks increasingly capped,” Steven Englander, head of global G-10 FX research and North America strategy for Standard Chartered Bank, wrote in a note.
Back to stocks, European shares extended Wednesday’s rally, which saw the Stoxx 600 Index surge 1.5%. The European benchmark is in the midst of its longest rising streak since mid-April and has almost erased its second-half losses. Swatch Group AG, the maker of Omega and Longines watches, jumped more than 6% as China’s reopening fueled a rise in profits. Watches of Switzerland Group Plc, the biggest retailer of Rolex watches in the UK, soared 10%. US equity futures rose after solid gains on Wall Street. Here are some of the more notable European movers:
Swatch shares jump as much as 6.9% after the Swiss watchmaker reported earnings that beat estimates.
Watches of Switzerland soars as much as 12%, the most since January 2022, after the UK retailer of Rolex watches reported results and kept its guidance unchanged for the year
Aker BP climbs as much as 2.3% after Norway’s second-biggest oil and gas producer increased its production guidance for the year
Valeo gains as much as 4% after Stifel raised the French automotive supplier to buy from hold
Experian shares rise as much as 0.9% after the consumer credit reporting company reaffirmed its full-year organic revenue forecast
Barratt Developments drops as much as 5.4%, after the UK homebuilder noted a “significant deterioration” in demand during the second quarter. Peers also fell
Schneider Electric falls as much as 3.7%, the most since May, after BofA double downgraded the French maker of electrical products to underperform from buy
BASF shares decline as much as 2.3%, before paring the drop, as its new lower Ebit guidance for the full year implies a cut to consensus at the mid-point of about 14%
Bufab drops as much as 13%, the most since March 2020, after the Swedish bolt and fastener maker reported 2Q results which DNB said fell short of expectations in terms of revenue and organic growth
Barry Callebaut shares dip as much as 2% after reporting volume growth that Vontobel said is lower than expected, partly as a result of inflationary conditions
Orpea shares fall as much as 1.7% after the French retirement-home operator cut its FY23 EbitdaR outlook, citing low occupancy rates in France, an “adverse reputational context” and high staff costs
Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index headed for the highest close in more than three weeks, with stocks in Hong Kong recording some of the biggest gains. Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with senior executives from firms including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd., a sign that the government is ending its crackdown on the technology industry.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.3%, taking losses this week to 1.8% and a fresh 52-week low after Wednesday’s CPI print gave momentum to the bearish greenback trend. NZD/USD and AUD/USD led gains, both climbing around 1%, while the British pound extended its rally to a sixth day, staying above the $1.30 level that it hit Thursday for the first time since April 2022, after data showed the UK economy shrank less than expected in May.
“A further decline in PPI and a rise in claims could see dollar losses extend,” wrote Chris Turner head of FX strategy at ING, who sees the selloff potentially marking the start of the dollar’s long-awaited cyclical decline. “DXY should press big psychological support at 100.00, the next target would be 99.00 on a breakout”
In rates, yields were broadly lower as investors unwound bets that the Fed would raise rates again following an expected hike this month; treasuries continued their bull-steepening streak as yields on the two-year slumped as much as 12 basis points to 4.63%, the lowest level in four weeks; as odds of another Federal Reserve hike after July are receding. The 5s30s spread is wider by ~5bp; 10-year around 3.82%, lower by 3bp on the day, with bunds and gilts outperforming by 6bp and 2bp in the sector. European bonds also rallied, led by Italy; traders are no long fully pricing another 50 basis points of hikes for the European Central Bank and erased bets on the Bank of England taking the key rate to 6.5%, seeing a peak of 6.25% instead. Germany’s 10-year yield dropped eight basis points to 2.49%. Yields are richer across the curve with front-end outperforming. The week’s auction cycle concludes with $18 billion 30-year reopening at 1pm New York time, which follows strong demand for 3- and 10- year sales that drew minimal market reaction. The WI 30-year yield at ~3.935% is ~3bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped 1.1bp through. As investors globally continue to digest Wednesday’s benign US CPI data, Thursday brings PPI and 30-year bond auction, adding to steepening pressure on the curve.
In commodities, crude oil was steady even after the International Energy Agency said cut its forecast for demand growth. Iron ore rose as hopes increased that Beijing will deliver more economic aid for the beleaguered property sector and as investors shrugged off disappointing Chinese trade data.
Bitcoin is comfortably above the USD 30k mark but yet to make much traction above the USD 30.5k figure with catalysts light and price action broadly still a function of Wednesday’s inflation update.
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for June, the weekly initial jobless claims, as well as UK GDP and Euro Area industrial production for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Daly and Waller, whilst the ECB will be publishing the accounts of their June meeting. Lastly, earnings releases include PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,522.25
MXAP up 1.7% to 167.86
MXAPJ up 1.9% to 529.98
Nikkei up 1.5% to 32,419.33
Topix up 1.0% to 2,242.99
Hang Seng Index up 2.6% to 19,350.62
Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 3,236.48
Sensex up 0.6% to 65,806.88
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.6% to 7,246.91
Kospi up 0.6% to 2,591.23
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 460.49
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.49%
Euro up 0.3% to $1.1164
Brent Futures up 0.5% to $80.52/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,961.03
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.24% to 100.28
Top Overnight News
China’s trade data for June undershoots the Street, with exports -12.4% Y/Y (vs. the Street -10%) and imports -6.8% (vs. the Street -4.1%). BBG
Washington-Beijing relationship will be tested (again) as the White House proceeds with plans to impose restrictions on American investment in China (the US Treasury has sought to narrow the scope of the restrictions). NYT
China is sending its strongest signal yet that it supports the development of platform companies, putting an end to years of probes into tech firms at a time when Beijing is going all-out to prevent economic growth from sputtering. SCMP
Global energy demand forecast is trimmed by 220K BPD by the IEA given mounting economic headwinds (although demand overall will hit a fresh record this year). IEA
Russia offered a deal to extend the grain export agreement in exchange for the country’s agricultural bank could see a subsidiary connected to the SWIFT int’l payment system. RTRS
Junk market shrinks by nearly ~$200B since its peak in 2021, helping to prop up prices despite a softer growth backdrop. FT
The Federal Trade Commission has opened an expansive investigation into OpenAI, probing whether the maker of the popular ChatGPT bot has run afoul of consumer protection laws by putting personal reputations and data at risk. WaPo
PEP kicked off earnings season on an upbeat note, posting organic revenue growth of +13% (the Street was modeling +9.8%) with EPS of 2.09 (more than 10c ahead of the Street’s 1.96 forecast). The EPS beat was driven by better revenue, GMs, and op. margins (and the tax rate was actually a bit higher than anticipated, which means underlying earnings power was even stronger than it seems). RTRS
DAL reported strong Q2 earnings, with EPS of 2.68 (vs. the Street’s 2.41), and they raise guidance for the year. They now see EPS of $6-7 for 2023 (vs. previously pointing to the high-end of $5-6) with Q3 EPS targeted at 2.20-2.50 (vs. the Street’s 2.06 forecast). RTRS
Remote work risks wiping $800 billion from the value of office buildings in major cities by 2030, McKinsey said. That would represent a 26% drop compared to levels in 2019, and an even worse decline of 42% is possible. The trend is set to continue as employers downsize space as soon as long-term leases come to an end. Only 37% of people are back at the office every day. (BBG)
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded higher as the region reacted to the softer-than-expected US inflation data which underpinned the global risk appetite, while weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data failed to dampen the spirit. ASX 200 was firmer with all sectors lifted by the constructive mood and as yields continued to decline. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 32,000 level at the open after the US CPI data provided a rising tide for stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with outperformance in the Hong Kong benchmark due to tech strength after Chinese Premier Li met with several HK-listed tech giants, endorsed the platform economy and pledged more support for the sector, while gains in the mainland were somewhat capped alongside the latest Chinese trade data which missed forecasts. Credit Suisse upgrades Chinese equities to Overweight.
Top Asian News
China’s Customs said the nation’s exports showed strong resilience in H1 but also noted that sluggish global economic growth, slowing global trade and investment, geopolitical risks and weakening external demand continue to impact China’s trade. Furthermore, it stated that China’s trade growth faces relatively big pressure but China is confident it can consolidate its market share in global trade this year, while a Customs official noted feelings of pressure and optimism for China trade in H2, according to Reuters.
US Secretary of State Blinken will meet with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi at the ASEAN meetings.
Chinese hackers reportedly breached the email of US Commerce Secretary Raimondo and State Department officials, according to WSJ.
Bank of Korea kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, with the rate decision made unanimously and 6 members wanted to keep the door open for one more rate hike. BoK said domestic economic growth is expected to recover gradually, while GDP growth and consumer price inflation this year are expected to be consistent with forecasts. Furthermore, BoK Governor Rhee said several board members expressed concern about the rise in household debt, while he added that inflation will rebound to around 3% by year-end and fall again to the 2% level next year.
Fast Retailing (9983 JT) 9-month(JPY): PBT 359bln, +2.8%; Operating Profit 330.6bln, +21.9%; Net Profit 238bln, +0.3%. CFO says Chinese consumption appears to be recovering strongly.
Japan Top FX Diplomat Kanda says closely watching FX market moves; there is a view that speculative Yen short positions are unwinding rapidly; there is a view that deflationary norm may be changing.
European bourses are modestly firmer across the board in a continuation of the post US CPI trade, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%. Sectors are primarily in the green with Retail names outperforming after Fast Retailing while Homebuilders lag following Barratt Developments earnings commentary. Stateside, futures are also firmer ahead of IJC and Fed speak ES +0.3%; NQ +0.6% outperforms as yields continue to pullback. PepsiCo Inc (PEP) Q2 2023 (USD): Core EPS 2.09 (exp. 1.96), Revenue 22.32bln (exp. 21.73bln); raises annual revenue and profit forecasts after price hikes and steady demand. FY EPS view 7.47 (exp. 7.32). +3.1% in pre-market trade. US FTC investigating whether ChatGPT harms consumers, WaPo reports.
Top European News
UK PM Sunak is set to be presented a plan on Thursday to give a million public sector workers a pay rise of around 6%, according to The Telegraph.
ECB’s Visco says we are not very far from a peak in interest rates, somewhat disagrees with the preference for tightening.
ECB’s Stournaras says we said a July hike was likely, but data since has become weaker, via Econostream; September hike is not a given, particularly since data points to a Q3 stagnation. Emphasises data-dependence.
FX
DXY extends post-CPI decline towards 100.000 as Treasury yields retreat further and markets position for less aggressive Fed.
Kiwi and Aussie outperform due to high beta properties, with NZD/USD probing 0.6350 and AUD/USD touching 0.6850.
Pound encouraged by less weak than feared UK GDP data and Euro gains at the expense of soft Dollar, as Cable tops 1.3050 and EUR/USD approaches 1.11-75-85 resistance zone.
Yen lags after stalling near 138.00 and takes note of verbal intervention from Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1527 vs exp. 7.1623 (prev. 7.1765)
Fixed Income
Bonds bounce further in follow-on reaction to soft US inflation data.
Bunds breach several resistance levels and trip stops on the way to 133.13 from 131.92.
Gilts more contained within 94.91-33 range post-better than forecast UK GDP and OBR warning on Government’s debt recovery strategy.
T-note nearer 112-24+ peak than 112-07 trough after big block trade in 5 year futures that looked like a buy given price action at the time.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are incrementally firmer but well within earlier ranges as Brent loses a little bit of its upward momentum after surpassing USD 80/bbl.
Meanwhile, spot gold is inching higher as the USD remains downbeat but with upside once again capped by the broader tone; base metals firmer, given the aforementioned factors are both supportive.
Russian Urals oil price has moved USD 2-3/bbl above the price cap on Thursday, via Reuters’ calculations.
IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: oil demand is set to increase by 2.2mln BPD in 2023 to reach a record 102.1mln BPD (vs. June view of 102.3mln BPD). China is to account for 70% of global oil demand gains. China’s widely anticipated reopening has so far failed to extend beyond travel and services.
EU’s VP Sefcovic says the EU has gathered 16BCM of demand in the second round of joint gas purchases, results which exceed expectations.
Geopolitics
North Korea said it test-launched a Hwasong-18 ICBM on Wednesday and leader Kim guided the missile test, while Kim said they will continue military offensive measures until the US abandons its hostile policy against Pyongyang.
UN Security Council is to meet publicly on Thursday regarding North Korea’s missile launch, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
08:30: June PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.3%
08:30: June PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 0.4%, prior 1.1%
08:30: June PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
08:30: June PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.8%
08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 250,000, prior 248,000
08:30: July Continuing Claims, est. 1.72m, prior 1.72m
14:00: June Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$184b, prior -$88.8b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets have put in a very strong performance over the last 24 hours, thanks to a promising US CPI report that boosted hopes of a soft landing in the markets’ eyes. There were several details that investors liked, but a key one was that it marked the first time in 29 months that the monthly core inflation print had been beneath 2% on an annualised basis. So the Fed would be very happy if we got some more reports like yesterday’s, and markets moved to price in more rate cuts for next year as a result. In turn, that led to a significant rally, with the S&P 500 (+0.74%) closing at a 15-month high, whilst yields on 10yr Treasuries came down -11.2bps to 3.86%.
What the financial world and the Fed will have to weigh up is whether the improvement in inflation is coming just in time or too late to change the direction of travel. Monetary policy operates with a lag and we still have several hundred basis points of hikes to fully work through the system. Ironically, if inflation is falling back to trend but the Fed takes some time to move to an easing bias, then policy will become more restrictive in real terms. However, it’s fair to say that this print gives them the ability to move to an easing bias earlier. So you can see why markets would get excited.
When it came to the specifics of the CPI release, the main news was that inflation continued to soften, with monthly headline CPI at just +0.18% in June. That was beneath the consensus expectation for a +0.3% reading, and it took the year-on-year measure down to just +3.0%, which is the lowest it’s been since March 2021. On core CPI there was even better news, as the monthly print came in at +0.16%, which is the weakest since February 2021 before the current inflation spike really got going. Similarly, that took the year-on-year core CPI print down to +4.8%.
To be honest, it was difficult to find any negative spin from yesterday’s release. At worst, you could highlight the outsized contribution of airfares (-8.1%) to the core CPI slowdown and say some of the stickier factors were a bit stronger, but even those were still coming down from their levels over recent months. For instance, the Atlanta Fed breaks down the CPI into a sticky and flexible CPI series, and their sticky CPI print hit a 24-month low of +0.24% in June. On top of that, it was clear the declines were broad-based, as the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean that excludes the biggest outliers in either direction came in at +0.22%, which is the lowest since February 2021.
Although the CPI report was a downside surprise, it doesn’t look like it’d be enough to dissuade the Fed from hiking in a couple of weeks’ time. They’ve been consistent that they want to see a succession of lower numbers before they ease policy, particularly after summer 2021 when some weaker numbers led to false hope that inflation would prove transitory. This cautious message was supported by comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin, who said that backing off too soon would require the Fed to do even more. Market pricing has been reflective of that too, with expectations for a July hike unchanged yesterday at 89%. But even as a July hike looks almost-locked in, the CPI print led investors to lower the rate path further out. For example, terminal rate pricing for November came down by -4.8bps to 5.38%. And when it comes to next year, pricing for the December 2024 came down by -18.6bps on the day to 3.91%, and is down another -5.3bps overnight to 3.86%.
With investors pricing in more rate cuts, sovereign bonds rallied strongly across the world. The 10yr US Treasury yield was down -11.2bps to 3.86%, whilst the 2yr yield was down by an even larger -12.9bps to 4.75%. Bear in mind it was less than a week ago after the bumper ADP print that the 2yr yield went as high as 5.12%, so we’ve seen a pretty big turnaround since then. The rates rally was led by real yields, with 10yr real Treasury yield down -15.5bps on the day, its sharpest daily decline since March. Treasury yields have extended their decline overnight, with 2yr yields down another -4.4bps to 4.70%, whilst the 10yr yield has also fallen another -0.8bps to 3.85%. In Europe yesterday it was much the same story, with yields on 10yr gilts (-14.9bps), OATs (-11.6bps) and BTPs (-15.8bps) all plummeting.
The CPI report also led to some pretty seismic movements in FX markets, with the dollar index (-1.19%) posting its worst day in 8 months and falling to a 14-month low. That led to several milestones elsewhere, with the euro closing above $1.11 for the first time since March 2022 and this morning it’s up further to another 2023 high of $1.115. In the meantime, the pound surpassed the $1.30 mark for the first time since April 2022.
This backdrop was favourable for equities, and both the S&P 500 (+0.74%) and the NASDAQ (+1.15%) closed at 15-month highs. Over in Europe there were even larger advances, with the STOXX 600 (+1.51%) surging, and the DAX (+1.47%) posting its strongest daily performance since the financial turmoil in March.
Elsewhere yesterday, the Bank of Canada delivered a 25bp hike as expected, taking their overnight rate to a 22-year high of 5%. There were hawkish elements to the decision as well, as their latest Monetary Policy Report is now projecting a slower return to the 2% target relative to April, with a return to 2% in the middle of 2025. The statement said that the Governing Council “remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.” Looking forward, overnight index swaps are currently pricing 7.9bps of hikes at the September meeting, so a roughly one-in-three likelihood of another 25bp hike.
Asian equity markets have followed up with further gains overnight, with a strong rally amidst the prospect of the Fed moving less aggressively. That’s led to major gains across the board, with the Hang Seng (+2.49%), the Nikkei (+1.67%), the CSI 300 (+1.12%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.86%) and the KOSPI (+0.82%) all advancing. US equity futures are similarly pointing to a positive start later, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.26%, whilst NASDAQ 100 futures are up +0.44%.
Lastly overnight, the Bank of Korea left its key interest rate unchanged at 3.5% as expected. That’s the 4th consecutive meeting that rates have been on hold now, but the statement said that the Board would “maintain a restrictive policy stance for a considerable time with an emphasis on ensuring price stability.”
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for June, the weekly initial jobless claims, as well as UK GDP and Euro Area industrial production for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Daly and Waller, whilst the ECB will be publishing the accounts of their June meeting. Lastly, earnings releases include PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Constructive risk tone as post-CPI action continues, DXY & yields retreat further – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 06:34 AM
European bourses & US futures are firmer as the post-inflation action continues ahead of IJC
DXY extends the post-inflation decline towards 100.00 amid a further retreat in yields
Antipodeans outperform, EUR & GBP also bid; as above, fixed benchmarks continue to climb
Crude inches higher with attention on Urals while spot gold is more contained but base metals extend
Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, ECB Minutes, OPEC OMR, Supply from the US.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are modestly firmer across the board in a continuation of the post US CPI trade, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%.
Sectors are primarily in the green with Retail names outperforming after Fast Retailing while Homebuilders lag following Barratt Developments earnings commentary.
Stateside, futures are also firmer ahead of IJC and Fed speak ES +0.3%; NQ +0.6% outperforms as yields continue to pullback.
PepsiCo Inc (PEP) Q2 2023 (USD): Core EPS 2.09 (exp. 1.96), Revenue 22.32bln (exp. 21.73bln); raises annual revenue and profit forecasts after price hikes and steady demand. FY EPS view 7.47 (exp. 7.32). +3.1% in pre-market trade
US FTC investigating whether ChatGPT harms consumers, WaPo reports.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
DXY extends post-CPI decline towards 100.000 as Treasury yields retreat further and markets position for less aggressive Fed.
Kiwi and Aussie outperform due to high beta properties, with NZD/USD probing 0.6350 and AUD/USD touching 0.6850.
Pound encouraged by less weak than feared UK GDP data and Euro gains at the expense of soft Dollar, as Cable tops 1.3050 and EUR/USD approaches 1.11-75-85 resistance zone.
Yen lags after stalling near 138.00 and takes note of verbal intervention from Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1527 vs exp. 7.1623 (prev. 7.1765)
Crude benchmarks are incrementally firmer but well within earlier ranges as Brent loses a little bit of its upward momentum after surpassing USD 80/bbl.
Meanwhile, spot gold is inching higher as the USD remains downbeat but with upside once again capped by the broader tone; base metals firmer, given the aforementioned factors are both supportive.
Russian Urals oil price has moved USD 2-3/bbl above the price cap on Thursday, via Reuters’ calculations.
IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: oil demand is set to increase by 2.2mln BPD in 2023 to reach a record 102.1mln BPD (vs. June view of 102.3mln BPD). China is to account for 70% of global oil demand gains. China’s widely anticipated reopening has so far failed to extend beyond travel and services.
EU’s VP Sefcovic says the EU has gathered 16BCM of demand in the second round of joint gas purchases, results which exceed expectations.
US Senator Warren said Fed Chair Powell should halt the rate hikes, while she added that the banking industry is still overly concentrated and anything that causes the demise of small banks is a bad idea, according to Bloomberg.
UK GDP Estimate MM (May) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.2%); YY (May) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. 0.5%); 3M/3M (May) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
UK RICS Housing Survey (Jun) -46.0 vs. Exp. -34.0 (Prev. -30.0)
EU Industrial Production MM (May) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.0%); YY (May) -2.2% vs. Exp. -1.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK PM Sunak is set to be presented a plan on Thursday to give a million public sector workers a pay rise of around 6%, according to The Telegraph.
ECB’s Visco says we are not very far from a peak in interest rates, somewhat disagrees with the preference for tightening.
ECB’s Stournaras says we said a July hike was likely, but data since has become weaker, via Econostream; September hike is not a given, particularly since data points to a Q3 stagnation. Emphasises data-dependence.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is comfortably above the USD 30k mark but yet to make much traction above the USD 30.5k figure with catalysts light and price action broadly still a function of Wednesday’s inflation update.
GEOPOLITICS
North Korea said it test-launched a Hwasong-18 ICBM on Wednesday and leader Kim guided the missile test, while Kim said they will continue military offensive measures until the US abandons its hostile policy against Pyongyang.
UN Security Council is to meet publicly on Thursday regarding North Korea’s missile launch, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded higher as the region reacted to the softer-than-expected US inflation data which underpinned the global risk appetite, while weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data failed to dampen the spirit.
ASX 200 was firmer with all sectors lifted by the constructive mood and as yields continued to decline.
Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 32,000 level at the open after the US CPI data provided a rising tide for stocks.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with outperformance in the Hong Kong benchmark due to tech strength after Chinese Premier Li met with several HK-listed tech giants, endorsed the platform economy and pledged more support for the sector, while gains in the mainland were somewhat capped alongside the latest Chinese trade data which missed forecasts.
Credit Suisse upgrades Chinese equities to Overweight.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Customs said the nation’s exports showed strong resilience in H1 but also noted that sluggish global economic growth, slowing global trade and investment, geopolitical risks and weakening external demand continue to impact China’s trade. Furthermore, it stated that China’s trade growth faces relatively big pressure but China is confident it can consolidate its market share in global trade this year, while a Customs official noted feelings of pressure and optimism for China trade in H2, according to Reuters.
US Secretary of State Blinken will meet with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi at the ASEAN meetings.
Chinese hackers reportedly breached the email of US Commerce Secretary Raimondo and State Department officials, according to WSJ.
Bank of Korea kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, with the rate decision made unanimously and 6 members wanted to keep the door open for one more rate hike. BoK said domestic economic growth is expected to recover gradually, while GDP growth and consumer price inflation this year are expected to be consistent with forecasts. Furthermore, BoK Governor Rhee said several board members expressed concern about the rise in household debt, while he added that inflation will rebound to around 3% by year-end and fall again to the 2% level next year.
Fast Retailing (9983 JT) 9-month(JPY): PBT 359bln, +2.8%; Operating Profit 330.6bln, +21.9%; Net Profit 238bln, +0.3%. CFO says Chinese consumption appears to be recovering strongly.
Japan Top FX Diplomat Kanda says closely watching FX market moves; there is a view that speculative Yen short positions are unwinding rapidly; there is a view that deflationary norm may be changing.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Jun) 70.62B vs. Exp. 74.8B (Prev. 65.81B)
Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Jun) -12.4% vs. Exp. -9.5% (Prev. -7.5%); Imports YY (USD)(Jun) -6.8% vs. Exp. -4.0% (Prev. -4.5%)
Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Jun) 491.3B (Prev. 452.3B)
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 40.34 PTS OR 1.26% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 489.69 PTS OR 2.60% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 475.40 OR 1.49% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.55 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1632 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1705 /Oil UP TO 75.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 80.12 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/CHINA
Good luck if you can get them!
Samsung Fights Back Against Beijing’s Tech Theft, Sues Chinese Firm BOE Over Patent Infringement
Amid escalating tension between South Korea and China, Samsung has drawn attention by pulling out of the Shanghai Mobile World Congress for the first time in six years and initiating its maiden patent lawsuit against Chinese company BOE. The moves come in the wake of repeated allegations of technology theft by China against Samsung’s technology.
Samsung Display took a decisive step on June 26, instigating a patent infringement lawsuit against BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (BOE), China’s premier display company. The lawsuit, filed in the Eastern District Court of Texas, asserts that BOE had unlawfully appropriated four of Samsung’s patented organic light-emitting diode (OLED) display technologies that it uses in the iPhone 12.
This legal action marks Samsung’s first patent lawsuit against BOE after it repeated warnings against unauthorized appropriation of Samsung’s technology.
BOE is a public company with its headquarters in Beijing’s Yizhuang Economic and Technological Development Zone, and its business empire spans displays, sensors, smart systems, and health services.
In the lawsuit, Samsung Display articulated its grievance, stating that BOE has infringed upon the company’s patent rights by selling panels identical to those that Samsung Display has utilized for the iPhone 12 in the U.S. market.
This litigation extends the ongoing legal feud between Samsung Display and BOE that surfaced last year.
In May 2022, Samsung Display issued a notice of patent infringement to BOE, followed by a complaint with the International Trade Commission (ITC) against 17 U.S. component wholesalers in December of that same year.
Samsung sought to ban the use of counterfeit components and display panels allegedly based on its sophisticated OLED patents, including one on its “Diamond Pixel” technology.
The move was triggered by U.S. smartphone repair shops using both genuine Samsung Display panels and counterfeit Chinese products when replacing iPhone 12 OLED display panels. It requested the U.S. tribunal ban 17 U.S. smartphone parts wholesalers from importing such parts and panels that allegedly use its patented technology into the United States.
Confronted with this unfavorable situation, BOE retaliated in May this year by filing a counterclaim against Samsung Display’s and Samsung Electronics’ Chinese legal entity. The lawsuit, filed with a court in Chongqing, China, accused Samsung Display of plagiarizing its OLED display panel technology.
South Korean public opinion suggests that Samsung Display, having grown weary of the CCP’s alleged acts of thievery, decided to retaliate with a countersuit.
Grappling With Significant Losses Due to China’s Brazen Technology Theft
Beijing’s alleged global technology theft operation wreaks havoc worldwide, with South Korea, an electronics industry powerhouse, bearing the brunt of its onslaught. Samsung Electronics, a global leader in semiconductors and OLED display panels, struggles to protect its technology.
A recent large-scale technology theft by Beijing, revealed to be of significant detriment to South Korea, exemplifies the severity of the situation.
In mid-June, South Korea’s Suwon District Prosecutor’s Office filed a lawsuit against a former Samsung Electronics executive surnamed Choi for allegedly stealing design data from a Samsung Electronics semiconductor factory and attempting to build a replica factory in China.
Choi, 65, a South Korean tech industry veteran, reportedly received approximately $360 million from the Chengdu government to establish a semiconductor company in China, recruiting over 200 key personnel from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Choi was once lauded with titles for his innovation, hands-on approach, and round-the-clock dedication. However, this time, the government that honored him as a national tech hero is accusing him of industrial espionage on a grand scale.
Prosecutors described the defendant in a statement as an “undisputed top domestic expert in semiconductor manufacturing.”
“The data, which Samsung Electronics obtained through more than 30 years of research and development, is worth 300 billion to trillions of won (about $200 million to billions). It is not only a company’s trade secret but also a national core technology,” prosecutors said.
Hong Kong warns that there will be a Japanese seafood ban if Fukushima dumps the nuked water into the ocean
(zerohedge)
Hong Kong Warns Of Japanese Seafood Ban If Fukushima Dumps Nuke Water Into Ocean
WEDNESDAY, JUL 12, 2023 – 11:20 PM
Last week, the UN nuclear watchdog gave Japan the “greenlight” to dump ‘treated’ radioactive water from the crippled Fukushima plant into the ocean. The plan upset China, the biggest buyer of its seafood exports, and has since sparked concerns in Hong Kong.
On Wednesday, Hong Kong’s Environment and ecology department head Tse Chin-wan warned if Japan discharges 500 Olympic swimming pools of treated water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the Pacific Ocean, that would trigger a ban on imports of all frozen, refrigerated, dried, or otherwise preserved aquatic products, sea salt, and unprocessed or processed seaweed, according to Reuters.
The threat of a ban comes one day after Hong Kong leader John Lee said the city would ban seafood products from a “large number” of Japanese prefectures if Tokyo decided to discharge the treated radioactive water.
Fukushima Nuke Plant Water Tanks
Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that Japan’s plans to release treated radioactive water from Fukushima into the Pacific Ocean are consistent with international safety standards.
Almost immediately, that didn’t sit well with China, the largest buyer of Japan’s seafood exports, who said it would increase monitoring of edible products from Japan and continue bans on seafood imports from 10 prefectures. The General Administration of Customs said this was a move to prevent contaminated food from hitting Chinese supermarkets.
Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin addressed the issue on Tuesday during a press briefing:
“If some people think that the nuclear-contaminated water from Fukushima is safe to drink or swim in, we suggest that Japan save the nuclear-contaminated water for these people to drink or swim in instead of releasing it into the sea and causing widespread concerns internationally.”
If Tokyo decides to dump the Fukushima water, and China and Hong Kong tighten restrictions on food imports from Japan, let’s hope none of this questionable seafood ends up in the US.
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
China’s export growth plunges and that indicates global growth is in trouble
(zerohedge)
China Export Growth Plunges Sparking Global Growth Fears
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 08:09 AM
Ugly import/export data from China overnight paints an increasingly ominous picture about the global growth outlook.
“The weakening external demand continues to impact China’s trade,” said Lyu Daliang, spokesman of the the General Administration of Customs.
“The global economy’s recovery is lacking a driver. Global trade and investment is slowing, while unilateralism, protectionism and geopolitical risks are rising.”
In year-over-year terms, China’s exports declined more than expected in June (-12.4% yoy vs. Bloomberg consensus: -10% yoy), and imports fell 6.8% yoy in June (vs. -4.5% in May; Exhibit 1). In sequential terms, exports declined by 6.3% sa non-annualized in June (vs. -2.7% in May) and imports decreased by 2.8% sa non-annualized in June (vs. +3.5% in May).
Source: Bloomberg
Exports have now fallen for four of the six months so far in 2023.
Interestingly – given China’s history of shall-we-say ‘managing’ its data for external communication – Goldman notes that there appears to be some statistical discrepancy between the official year-to-date vs. official single-month exports data: the official year-to-date export value implied a 19.8% yoy decline for June, which is close to Goldman’s estimate of -17.5% in the first take, whereas the official June export value declined 12.4% yoy.
That pushed China’s trade surplus rose to US$70.6bn in June (not seasonally adjusted) from US$65.8bn in May – the surplus in the first six months at a record for that period in data back through the late 1990s.
Source: Goldman Sachs
The weakness in export demand was widespread.
Exports to the US fell almost 24%, the 11th straight month of declines and the worse result since the slump at the beginning of the pandemic.
Shipments to Asean, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Germany, Italy, the UK, the Netherlands and Canada all fell by double digits, and shipments to France were also down.
“External uncertainties are rising, and the global economy’s weak momentum and outlook of slowing growth is not improving yet,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of strategy for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.
“The impact from unleashing earlier pent-up orders is basically gone,” although exports of goods such as electric cars and batteries continues to improve, he said.
By major category, there was broad-based weakness of exports across products except for chips. Exports of steel and iron products declined the most in sequential terms.
Source: Goldman Sachs
On a year-over-year basis, exports of consumer electronics remained weak. Exports of cellphones declined 23.3% yoy in June (vs. -25.0% yoy in May). Export growth of housing-related products remained sluggish in June. For example, exports of furniture declined 15.1% yoy in June (vs. -14.8% yoy in May).
“We see little respite for China’s exports in the second half, as the US is likely to enter a mild recession, while the Eurozone economy probably will remain weak,” Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note after the data release.
“The risk of an escalating technology trade war with the US cannot be ruled out,” Wrigley said.
On the other side of the ledger, import data underscores the weakness of the domestic economy and the impact of the tech war with the US and its allies.
Demand in China for electronic parts from Taiwan and South Korea, along with commodities from elsewhere, is still down. Soybean, copper ore and concentrated copper, iron ore and natural gas imports all fell from May.
Source: Goldman Sachs
And this is all before Beijing’s export restrictions on gallium and germanium are set to begin next month.
The silver lining – for stock traders – is of course that this increases the chances of Beijing unleashing a broader easing policy.
“Take trade and other data together, we see reasonable chance of measured stimulus,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU
end
UK
UK
HUNGARY
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA// UKRAINE/USA/EUROPE
Things did not turn out so well at the NATO summit for our war hawks
(zerohedge)
“War Effort In Shambles As Hawks Turn On Each Other” At NATO Summit
WEDNESDAY, JUL 12, 2023 – 05:40 PM
Bloomberg is just out with a devastating behind-the-scenes account of a hot-headed Zelensky at the NATO summit in Vilnius, and the growing Western backlash in the face of his obvious frustration and what’s being seen as ingratitude for the steady flow of billions of dollars in arms to Kiev.
Apparently even the mainstream media agrees with our own assessment of the Ukrainian leader having thrown a “tantrum” as he complained about the “weak” and “absurd” NATO stance on Ukraine’s membership. The blistering tweet he issued in English while en route to Lithuania exposed cracks in the alliance, as Bloomberg highlights in the opening of its very revealing Wednesday piece:
Volodymyr Zelenskiy was running hot ahead of his sit-down with NATO leaders on Tuesday evening. The Ukrainian president had been angered earlier in the day by what he said was an “absurd” reluctance to give his country a clear timeline on membership.
That outburst in turn riled the partners who have funneled billions of dollars of weaponry and aid into Ukraine’s defense against the Russian invasion — the US had been given no warning before Zelenskiy unleashed his attack on social media.
All day Wednesday, the above (very real) photo of an isolated and defeated-looking Zelensky standing amid NATO heads of state (with backs turned) circulated widely on social media.
And things were even more tense behind the scenes, as Bloomberg writes: “Over dinner in Vilnius, with US President Joe Biden back at his hotel, the other leaders delivered a clear message to Zelenskiy, according to one person who was present. You have to cool down and look at the full package, Zelenskiy was told.”
While it’s not quite yet a full on ‘hero to zero’ story… things are certainly sliding in that direction, given it’s unprecedented that the Ukrainian president who previously enjoyed rockstar status in Western capitals since the start of the invasion could be told to basically ‘cool it’!.
Bloomberg continues in reference to Zelensky: “He had, after all, been given a renewed commitment to eventual membership and new security guarantees from the Group of Seven nations. By the next day, the message appeared to be sinking in.” The publication was privy to some key Western leaders’ exact words, presenting the rare dressing down as follows [emphasis ZH]:
“Whether we like it or not, people want to see gratitude,” UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told reporters the following morning. “You’re persuading countries to give up their stock” of weapons and ammunition, he added.
This account of the behind-the-scenes wrangling is based on interviews with more than a dozen diplomats and officials involved in the summit who asked not to be named discussing private conversations. NATO leaders were trying to thread a needle on Ukraine’s membership bid when they arrived in Vilnius: They were seeking language that looked like progress and that Ukraine could sell as progress but fundamentally didn’t leave them any closer to getting dragged into a war with nuclear-armed Russia.
Ultimately the hawks (mainly among the Baltic and Eastern Europe states) have lostat Vilnius. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has admitted “There was a lack of political will.” Thus it appears that Zelensky’s angry, desperate tweet lashing out at Western partners was a last ditch effort at shaming NATO into conceding to its demands of being immediately fast-tracked to membership.
Bloomberg reveals further, that “Crucially, it was the US and Germany that insisted on dialing back the commitment to Ukraine joining the alliance. Earlier drafts of the communique offered a clearer pathway to Ukraine eventually joining, but Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz were wary of going too far.”
“Their teams demanded changes in the final days before the summit, upsetting lots of the other European nations, as well as the Ukrainians.” Indeed Biden in a CNN interview at the start of the week confessed the obvious: that Ukraine’s admission into NATO with the war still going would automatically unleash war between nuclear-armed powers – a WW3 doomsday scenario. Hence the West is now telling Kiev: just stop.
In Zelensky’s next big NATO summit appearance Wednesday following a no doubt awkward evening, things were different as he belatedly “got the message”…
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday struck a more conciliatory tone on the subject of Ukraine joining NATO after he raised criticism this week over his country not being formally invited to join the alliance.
Zelensky said at a joint press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday that Ukraine has already come a “long way in interoperability” with the organization and praised NATO’s decision to remove the need for procedural step — for Ukraine to have a Membership Action Plan — to join the alliance.
More rare, awkward moments of Zelensky being on the receiving end of chastisement and humiliating sarcasm:
Just the day prior: Below is the much more confident Zelensky brimming with self-righteous rage, attempting to convince NATO leaders to change course on stating firm “conditions” for future possible membership.
He demanded… Ukraine “deserves respect”.
The New York Times’ summation of precisely what fell short in the NATO communique explains: “NATO declared on Tuesday that Ukraine would be invited to join the alliance, but did not say how or when, disappointing its president but reflecting the resolve by President Biden and other leaders not to be drawn directly into Ukraine’s war with Russia.”
Indeed it’s being widely called more vague–and with greater possible restrictions, or “conditions”–than even what came out of the 2008 Bucharest summit.
Issued by NATO Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Vilnius 11 July 2023:
11. We fully support Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements. Ukraine’s future is in NATO. We reaffirm the commitment we made at the 2008 Summit in Bucharest that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, and today we recognise that Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has moved beyond the need for the Membership Action Plan. Ukraine has become increasingly interoperable and politically integrated with the Alliance, and has made substantial progress on its reform path. In line with the 1997 Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between NATO and Ukraine and the 2009 Complement, Allies will continue to support and review Ukraine’s progress on interoperability as well as additional democratic and security sector reforms that are required. NATO Foreign Ministers will regularly assess progress through the adapted Annual National Programme. The Alliance will support Ukraine in making these reforms on its path towards future membership. We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.
But Zelensky is still holding out hope that one day…
However, President Biden has remained unmoved, and responded by explaining before reporters that Ukraine “will not be in NATO for a while”.
“Well. The little comedian seems disappointed. As if the whole play had not been obvious from the very beginning. Since 2008 the Ukraine was to be used as a tool to nag Russia. It is otherwise of little value. It will end up as a discarded rag while NATO will, in the end, again recognize the Russian Federation as the super power that that it is. NATO will have to relearn to listen to and negotiate with it.”
MofA then highlights the inevitable negative impact (to say the least) on Ukrainian morale: “Now lets wait and see what NATO’s climb down will do to the morale and motivations of the Ukrainian army and people.”
Update(1740): David Sacks agrees that for the hawks of NATO-land, the way things are going for the Ukrainian war effort and the West’s prior optimism and muscular support in general have reached a low-point.
Despite Biden’s best efforts to put a happy face on it, Vilnius will be remembered as the NATO Summit where tensions boiled over. Zelensky denounced the Alliance’s admission policy as “absurd” and disrespectful.
UK Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace chastised Zelensky for ingratitude. Lindsey Graham attacked the Biden administration for weakness. Ben Hodges criticized Jake Sullivan for lack of “strategic bravery.” Even NAFO mascot Adam Kinzinger no longer appears to be a “fella.”
The optics were even harsher than the words, with the NATO elites turning their backs on a frustrated Zelensky. Biden’s assurance that Zelensky is “stuck” with the U.S. may come as cold comfort to both nations now that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed to meet expectations, huge amounts of expensive Western armor lay in ruins smoldering on the battlefield, Ukrainian casualties are horrific, and the U.S. has run out of 155mm artillery shells to give, forcing America to debase itself by sending cluster bombs.
The war effort is increasingly a shambles and the War Party is starting to turn on each other.
END
ROBERT H TO US:
Ukraine Deploys US Stockpile Mustard Gas Against Russia at Artemivsk | USSA News | The Tea Party’s Front Page
There is no depth of degradation that the regime will not aspire to.
Kremlin Responds To G7, NATO Security Guarantees For Ukraine: “The Price Is Not A Secret”
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 11:05 AM
NATO and G7 countries on Tuesday and Wednesday issued new formal security guarantees for Ukraine, through these fell far short of Zelensky’s hoped-for path to NATO membership.
The declarations were issued from the Vilnius summit, and included pledges to erect “a sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring Russian aggression in the future” by continuing to provide modern military equipment, training for Ukrainian forces, and intelligence sharing.
The G7 further vowed “to create the conditions conducive to promoting Ukraine’s economic prosperity” including through recovery efforts, which is to also involve “the need for the establishment of an international mechanism for reparation of damages, loss or injury caused by Russian aggression.”
But Ukraine in the meantime is expected to make “necessary reforms” toward democracy.
President Biden, who at one point referred to the Ukrainian leader as “Vladimir”,(instead of the preferred Volodymyr)told a press conference after their meeting, “Mr. Zelensky and I talked about the kind of guarantees we could make in the meantime… And so today, the long-term commitments we’re making are backed up by the notion that in the meantime, we’re going to provide security to Ukraine for its needs and against any aggression that may occur.”
It was the UK’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who had the firmest and most optimistic words on the security guarantees, describing a “significant international framework for Ukraine’s long-term security,” which would “set out how allies will support Ukraine over the coming years to end the war and deter and respond to any future attack.”
“Supporting their progress on the pathway to NATO membership, coupled with formal, multilateral, and bilateral agreements and the overwhelming support of NATO members will send a strong signal to President Putin and return peace to Europe,” Sunak continued.
Russia has responded by warning Ukraine will pay a “high price” for these security guarantees.
“The price of security guarantees from the Group of Seven (G7) is a Ukraine cleared of Ukrainians by Western weapons,” Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday, soon after G7 statements from Lithuania. And more:
Earlier, Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov expressed concern over the G7’s security guarantees, saying that “Kiev will not believe in them until it finds out what their price is.”
“The price is not a secret: a Ukraine cleared of Ukrainians by Western weapons but with enough population left to serve NATO troops. There is no need to deport anyone to Western Europe any more because people have moved there themselves,” the diplomat wrote on Telegram.
Meanwhile, tensions and cracks in the Western alliance were on full display at the summit…
Separately Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the guarantees “erroneous and dangerous” – given the breach the security of Russia. He then blasted NATO as an “offensive alliance” that carries aggression and danger, according to a translation.
But perhaps the most threatening response was from Foreign Minister Lavrov, who in fresh statements warned that when Western F-16s show up in Ukraine, Russia will have no choice but to treat this as a nuclear threat, given the warplanes’ capability of carrying tactical nukes.
TURKEY/USA/RUSSIA
A terrific read from Seymour Hersch on how Turkey allows Sweden to join Nato
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shakes hands with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, next to, from left to right, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, US President Joe Biden, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the NATO Summit on July 12 in Vilnius, Lithuania. / Photo by Paul Ellis, Pool/Getty Images.
Let’s start with a silly fear but one that does signal the Democratic Party’s growing sense of panic about the 2024 Presidential election. It was expressed to me by someone with excellent party credentials: that Trump could be the Republican nominee and will select Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as his running mate. The strange duo will then sweep to a huge victory over a stumbling Joe Biden, and also take down many of the party’s House and Senate candidates.
As for real signs of acute Democratic anxiety: Joe Biden got what he needed before the NATO summit this week by somehow turning Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inside out and getting him to rebuff Vladimir Putin by announcing that he would support NATO membership for Sweden. The public story for Biden’s face-saving coup was talk about agreeing to sell American F-16 fighter bombers to Turkey.
I have been told a different, secret story about Erdogan’s turnabout: Biden promised that a much-needed $11-13 billion line of credit would be extended to Turkey by the International Monetary Fund. “Biden had to have a victory and Turkey is in acute financial stress,” an official with direct knowledge of the transaction told me. Turkey lost 100,000 people in the earthquake last February, and has four million buildings to rebuild. “What could be better than Erdogan”—under Biden’s tutelage, the official asked, “finally having seen the light and realizing he is better off with NATO and Western Europe?” Reporters were told, according to the New York Times, that Biden called Erdogan while flying to Europe on Sunday. Biden’s coup, the Times reported, would enable him to say that Putin got “exactly what he did not want: an expanded, more direct NATO alliance.” There was no mention of bribery.
A June analysis by Brad W. Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, “Turkey’s Increasing Balance Sheet Risks,” said it all in the first two sentences—Erdogan won re-election and “now has to find a way to avoid what appears to be an imminent financial crisis.” The critical fact, Setser writes, is that Turkey “is on the edge of truly running out of usable foreign exchange reserves—and facing a choice between selling its gold, an avoidable default, or swallowing the bitter pill of a complete policy reversal and possibly an IMF program.”
Another key element of the complicated economic issues facing Turkey is that Turkey’s banks have lent so much money to the nation’s central bank that “they cannot honor their domestic dollar deposits, should Turks ever ask for the funds back.” The irony for Russia, and a reason for much anger in the Kremlin, Setser notes, is the rumor that Putin has been providing Russian gas to Erdogan on credit, and not demanding that the state gas importer pay up. Putin’s largesse has been flowing as Ergodan has been selling drones to Ukraine for use in its war against Russia. Turkey has also permitted Ukraine to ship its crops through the Black Sea.
All of this European political and economic double dealing was done openly and in plain sight. Duplicity comes much differently in the United States. …
END
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
Fascinating: The Chinese military may have had the COVID 19 in its possesion as early as Sept 2019
(Wang/EpochTimes)
Chinese Military May Have Had COVID-19 Virus In Its Possession As Early As September 2019
According to the World Health Organization, there have been 6,947,192 confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally as of June 28. Of those, 1,127,152 occurred in the United States, making the number of Americans killed by the virus more than 19 times the number of American soldiers killed in the Vietnam War.
And yet, over three years since the beginning of the pandemic, we still don’t know where the virus originated. The fear is that the next time around, the number of deaths could be much higher; because we didn’t learn from this pandemic, we wouldn’t be as prepared as we should for the next one.
This fear is shared by all Americans. That is probably why in March, the U.S. Congress unanimously passed the “COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023,” requesting that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) “declassify all information relating to potential links between the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the origin of COVID-19.” “The ODNI must submit to Congress an unclassified report with all such information with redactions only as necessary to protect sources and methods,” the new law says.
On June 23, ODNI released a 10-page report titled “Potential Links Between the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Origin of the COVID-19 Pandemic.” As someone who has been following this development closely, ODNI’s report told me nothing beyond what I already knew, except for one little gem on page 5: that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) had developed a technique that “left no traces of genetic modification of SARS-like coronaviruses.”
“Some of the WIV’s genetic engineering projects on coronaviruses involved techniques that could make it difficult to detect intentional changes,” the report stated.
Why did the WIV want to develop such a technique? Scientists at the institute had been publishing their research on viruses in the best scientific journals, including on “genetic modification of SARS-like coronaviruses,” so it didn’t look like they wanted to hide what they had been doing. Maybe what they published was only part of their research, and they wanted to conceal the research they didn’t publish? What would that be?
Before the ODNI report, U.S. investigative journalists revealed in early June that three WIV researchers, Ben Hu, Ping Yu, and Yan Zhu, were allegedly the first COVID-19 patients, having fallen ill in the fall of 2019. They were reportedly conducting research on SARS-like viruses and engaging in “gain-of-function” experiments. Gain-of-function, which involves altering the properties of a pathogen in order to study its potential impact on human health, increases the infectiousness of viruses and/or makes them more lethal.
The WIV denied such allegations. “The recent news about so-called ‘patient zero’ in WIV are absolutely rumors and ridiculous,” Ben Hu told the journal Science in June.
I was hoping that the ODNI report would shed more light on the origin of SARS-CoV-2. It didn’t, but a patent application I found through a web search strongly suggests that the Liberation Army (PLA) had the genetic sequence of the virus in its possession as early as September 2019. This would fit well with the allegation that the three WIV scientists were infected by the virus in the fall of 2019.
It’s worth noting that the same allegation was made by the Department of Justice in a fact sheet published Jan. 15, 2021, which said the U.S. government had “reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak.”
Officially, World Learned of Virus in January 2020
The first cases of the atypical pneumonia (later known as COVID-19) were reported in Wuhan in December 2019. The news was soon supressed by the Chinese Communist Party, as China was preparing to celebrate the Lunar New Year—a time that no bad news is allowed. Whistleblowers like Dr. Wenliang Li were punished. Officially, Chinese virologists did not have a chance to study the novel virus until early January 2020.
On Jan. 11, 2020, Professor Yong-Zhen Zhang’s group from Fudan University in Shanghai submitted the genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 to GenBank (accession number MN908947.1) in Maryland. Prof. Zhang obtained the virus by collecting bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from a 41-year old male patient in Wuhan, who had been admitted to hospital on Dec. 26, 2019. Chinese state media reported his death on Jan. 11, 2020.
Jan. 11, 2020, was the day that SARS-CoV-2 officially became known to the world. WHO announced that it had received the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus from the Chinese regime and would soon make it public.
PLA’s Warp Speed Vaccine Research
On Feb. 24, 2020, Dr. Yusen Zhou and 10 other inventors from the PLA’s Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology in Beijing filed a patent application(number 202010112679.9) titled “Novel coronavirus titled “COVID-19 vaccine, preparation methods and applications.” The application described in detail the design of the vaccine, the method to produce the vaccine, and the immunogenicity of the vaccine.
I am a vaccine scientist who worked for one of the world’s largest vaccine companies for more than 10 years, and I spearheaded SARS-CoV-1 vaccine development in 2003. I was stunned by the speed these PLA inventors were able to not only study the new virus and develop and test a vaccine so quickly, but also put together a patent application in merely 44 days (from Jan. 11 to Feb. 24)!
Vaccine development is an arduous process, usually taking about 10-15 years on average to accomplish. Before COVID-19, the fastest a vaccine that had ever been developed was the mumps vaccine in 1967, which took four years.
Of course, the U.S. government’s “Operation Warp Speed” made it possible for vaccine companies to accelerate their processes, which we now know compromised safety and effectiveness. Moderna published their Phase I/II clinical data on July 14, 2020, and Pfizer published theirs on Aug. 12, 2020. Then in December of that year, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines Emergency Use Authorization.
When I worked in the vaccine industry, I was the liaison between R&D (Research and Development) scientists (which I was also a member of) and our in-house lawyers in the IP (Intellectual Property) office. I was personally involved in the filing of dozens of patent applications. Normally, patent applications should be filed as soon as scientists discover something new, useful, and non-obvious—the three properties patent lawyers stress that scientists keep an eye out for and document.
A patent application can be filed before a vaccine is tested and granted for distribution. One could argue that the PLA’s application was “provisional,” meaning it would serve as a placeholder so that experimental results could be added later when available, hence it is possible that it only took 44 days to draft their patent application.
Yes, when things move extremely smoothly, a patent application could be put together in about one and a half months. However, the PLA’s filing contains real experimental data that would take time and effort to perform and collect. This makes it extremely unlikely that the scientists only received access to the virus information on or after Jan. 11, 2020.
Telling Timeline
If the PLA did have access to the virus, maybe they got the information from Prof. Zhang before he submitted the genetic sequence to GenBank, or maybe they got it elsewhere. Or it could be that since the scientists are with the PLA, how they obtained the virus constitutes a military secret.
pathologist has no answer for the infant’s death and no answer for the mother’s death either; IMO this is likely COVID mRNA technology vaccine-induced death in the mother and potentially the baby!
this is likely COVID mRNA technology vaccine-induced death in the mother and potentially the baby! We need definitive vaccine status but keep vaccine on the table! We have to.
Makis did a nice job here, see the stack, I support his contentions. I go further, until myocarditis (silent often) is ruled out that is vaccine induced, and until we know she was not vaccinated, then this is due to the mRNA vaccine. Keep vaccine in play.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders Gets Revenge On Gavin Newsom With Funny Video: “All that in heels”Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, R-Ark., fired back at California Governor Gavin Newsom in a brilliant video after Newsom trashed the Republicans and chastised the Democrats for being on defense. Newsom said in an earlier video: “We should not be on the defense as a Democratic Party. The Republican Party should be on their heels.” Enter Sarah Sanders who posted a …READ MORE
10 New Names Exposed in Hunter Biden ScandalSeveral high-ranking officials in Joe Biden’s administration have had longstanding professional and personal links to the Democrat president’s son Hunter, newly discovered communications have revealed. READ MORE
GOP Senators Urge Feds to Probe CCP ‘Service Centers’ Operating in USRead more…RFK Jr. Talks About His 14-Year Battle with Addiction and How He Overcame It Through Faith in GodRead more…Joe Biden Needs His Cheat Sheet to Say Hello to President Erdogan at NATO Conference – VIDEO | by Jim Hoft | 2Read more…Vivek Ramaswamy Has 15 Questions the House Judiciary Committee Needs to Ask Christopher Wray on WednesdayRead more…GOP Bill Would Penalize States That Allow Noncitizens to Vote in State, Local ElectionsRead more…Kari Lake Tells Mayra Flores to ‘Give ‘em Hell’ As Flores Enters 2024 Congressional RaceRead more…Comer Vindicated, Raskin Refuted: DOJ Letter Confirms Investigation Into Biden Bribery Is OngoingRead more…Donald Trump Gets Win as Judge Agrees to Delay ‘Sham’ Documents Trial HearingRead more…
Kari Lake Tells Mayra Flores to ‘Give ‘em Hell’ As Flores Enters 2024 Congressional RaceKari Lake today told Mayra Flores to “Give ‘em hell” as Flores announced she was entering the 2024 Congressional race. Flores said she was running for the 34th District in Texas, a seat she held for a brief period after winning a special election in 2022. “I am excited to announce that I am officially running for Congress in #TX34,” …READ THE FULL REPORT
Donald Trump Gets Win as Judge Agrees to Delay ‘Sham’ Documents Trial HearingA delay has been granted in an upcoming hearing in a case involving former President Donald Trump. On Tuesday, Judge Aileen Cannon agreed to delay the case initially scheduled for Friday, July 14th to Tuesday, July 18th. The delay which was granted was requested by Walt Nauta’s attorney. Nauta is an aide to the former president and has been charged …READ THE FULL REPORT
Actor Ron Perlman Announces Departure From Twitter, Will Take His ‘Business’ to ThreadsAnti-Trump actor Ron Perlman yesterday announced his departure from Twitter. Perlman made the announcement in a tweet that has been badly ratioed by responses. “Breaking…I’m taking my business to THREADS. Haters stay the f*ck out,” Perlman declared. In response, Twitter user Viva Frei told Perlman, “HAHAHAH!!! Have fun. Literally no one here will miss you.” Frei pointed out, “As evidenced …READ THE FULL REPORT
Kayleigh McEnany Unloads After Jake Tapper Runs Cover For Joe Biden, ‘Have You Lost Your Mind?’On her show today on Fox News’ “Outnumbered,” co-host Kayleigh McEnany unloaded over a clip that showed Jake Tapper running cover for Joe Biden. After describing how she felt like it was ridiculous that Biden wouldn’t acknowledge his 7th granddaughter. McEnany asked incredulously, “Jake Tapper, have you lost your mind?” “This is a four-year-old girl, are you that lost in …READ THE FULL REPORT
VACCINE IMPACT/
Study Debunks the Theory that Depression is Caused by a Chemical Imbalance in the Brain – America’s Problem with Criminal Drug Dealers
July 12, 2023 2:59 pm
America has a huge drug addiction problem, where drug dealers are literally destroying this country. No, I am not referring to fentanyl, meth, crack, heroin, or any other “illegal street drug” and the people who push them. I am referring to the much larger drug addiction problem with drugs that are distributed by a much larger drug dealer network: FDA-approved and authorized prescription drugs. This is, by far, the largest criminal organization in the world. The pharmaceutical drugs distributed by medical doctors and purchased in drug stores that are on the corner of every city and town in America, are what is destroying this country. These drugs are the leading cause of death in the United States, and their drug dealers are the largest class of criminal organizations in the world. The worst offenders among these drug pushers, are the fake doctors called “psychiatrists,” where 1 out every 5 of these “doctors” are arrested on criminal charges, where 40% of all women in psychiatric wards are raped, and where a child is 3 times more likely to be sexually molested by a psychiatrist than by a stranger or registered sex offender. The holy grail of psychiatry that is used to justify pushing psych drugs onto people diagnosed with “mental illness,” including toddlers that are 2-3 years old, the “brain imbalance” theory, has been thoroughly debunked now by a study published last year in the journal Molecular Psychiatry. This study caused a lot of outrage in the field of psychiatry, which is understandable as it rendered most psych drugs as useless and dangerous, and the study totally discredited the entire field of psychiatry as a fraud. The authors waited almost a full year for all the criticisms to be sent in to them, and have now published their response.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
NATO = Not Amazon Treaty Organization
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 10:10 AM
By Bas van Geffen, CFA, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Except for Sweden, perhaps, no party walked away from the NATO meeting very satisfied. Ukraine has been lamenting the lack of a firm timeline for its accession bid, although the NATO allies did agree to start training Ukrainian pilots on the F16 fighter jet. However, Zelenskyy’s call for additional and better military equipment is also seemingly causing some annoyance. The UK defense secretary said “we’re not Amazon”, referring to the long shopping list, asking for some “gratitude”. Arguably, the problem isn’t so much Ukraine’s wishes as it is the steady depletion of military equipment in the West, as they provide their available material to the front.
I do wonder whether the defense secretary deliberately referred to the American shopping giant as it is running its annual Prime Day sale. Whereas NATO is yet to invite Ukraine for Prime membership, Amazon shoppers have been pushing up US online sales by 6% in the first 24 hours, according to Reuters.
The cost of living crisis may have encouraged more consumers to look for good deals. Yet, one Harvard Business School economist takes the more defeatist view, arguing that algorithmic pricing has actually made consumers less price sensitive. After all, if computers can adjust prices on the fly to match their competitors’, companies have less incentive to undercut each other and so there is less of a chance to find a good deal.
I’m not sure if that fully applies. Many other online platforms have followed with their own discounts, and so prices may actually be lower as manufacturers seek to reduce (post-Covid) overstock. However, this intertemporal shift in consumption –to two specific days of the year– is quite different from the market dynamic assumed in traditional microeconomics, i.e., one where consumers shop around to find the best price between sellers on any given day. MacKay makes the case that algorithmic pricing may therefore cause downside price rigidities, while adjusting more rapidly to inflation shocks. This causes inflation to hit faster, after which the higher prices can persist for longer.
Which brings us to the much-awaited US inflation data that were out yesterday. Prices rose less fast than expected in June, with headline CPI inflation of 3.0% y/y and core at 4.8%. This deceleration is tentatively positive news, although several caveats still apply. First of all, energy prices declined 16.7% y/y, while core commodities inflation was only 1.3%. The remainder of the inflation came from food (5.7%), shelter (7.8%) and services (excl. shelter, 3.2%). In other words, base effects in commodities prices are embellishing the deceleration of the CPI index. Our US strategist notes that these effects will likely work in the opposite direction, meaning that future inflation estimates could still break with this downward trend. All in all, he concludes, this does support Powell’s view that a more moderate pace of tightening is appropriate and that the Fed could also ‘skip’ the September meeting – after which we still expect the November hike not to materialize either due to sufficient slowdown in economic activity.
Evidence that the Fed may indeed be able to take a slower approach lifted markets yesterday. That outlook caused US Treasury yields to decline across the curve, but most notably around the 3-year maturity (-16bp). Equities turned green, with the S&P 500 closing 0.7% up, but the sharpest moves were in foreign exchange. The EUR/USD rose above 1.115, to post a one-year high.
That these moves were predominantly driven by the prospect of a less hawkish Fed was also clear from the European side: money markets continue to price two more hikes from the ECB, although their conviction has lessened a little bit over the past day. This decline in confidence may partly be spill-over from the US inflation data, and partly the result of a leaked draft statement ahead of today’s Eurogroup meeting. According to the draft, the Eurozone’s finance ministers will agree to withdraw energy support measures, and commit to gradual and realistic fiscal consolidation.
The removal of support for households and companies should be welcome news for the ECB. The central bank has long been calling for excessive support measures to be wound back, in order to help its fight against inflation. The outcome of the Eurogroup could therefore remove some upside risks from the ECB’s inflation projections. Yet, it is too early to say whether it would also actively lower their baseline: the draft statement does not appear to give specific timelines for the withdrawal of fiscal measures, so it remains to be seen how quickly governments will turn to aid the ECB in a coordinated bid to tighten the conditions for economic activity.
Moreover, while the finance ministers will acknowledge the need for fiscal consolidation, they added that this must be ‘realistic’, and they also note that reforms remain necessary. That leaves some loopholes for e.g. investment spending on measures that will improve the structural outlook for Europe, but also may add to inflationary pressures in the near term. On that note, Germany’s finance minister is planning a host of measures to boost competitiveness and climate-friendly investments, particularly targeting small and medium-sized enterprises. The government aims to achieve this through tax reductions and subsidies that could amount to €6 billion annually.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
IEA cuts global oil demand
(zerohedge)
IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Outlook, Blames “Persistent Macro Headwinds”
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 07:45 AM
The world’s oil demand is set to rise by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to reach an average of 102.1 million bpd, a new record, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on Thursday. However, growth demand forecasts were revised lower due to “persistent macroeconomic headwinds” as global central banks spent the last year and a half aggressively raising interest to curb the highest inflation in a generation.
IEA’s demand forecast was revised slightly lower by 220,000 bpd versus last month’s forecast of 2.4 million bpd.
“Persistent macroeconomic headwinds, apparent in a deepening manufacturing slump, have led us to revise our 2023 growth estimate lower for the first time this year,” the Paris-based energy watchdog wrote in its latest oil market report.
“World oil demand is coming under pressure from the challenging economic environment, not least because of the dramatic tightening of monetary policy in many advanced and developing countries over the past twelve months,” the agency added.
The report said oil markets are tightening, some of which has to do with OPEC+ members pledging to remove supply from global markets to counteract the loss in demand as the global economy slumps. IEA noted demand is set to outstrip supply for the rest of this year.
World oil supply rose 480 kb/d to 101.8 mb/d in June but is set to fall sharply this month as Saudi Arabia makes a sharp 1 mb/d voluntary output cut. For 2023, global production is forecast to increase by 1.6 mb/d to 101.5 mb/d, as non-OPEC+ expands by 1.9 mb/d. In 2024, global supply is set to rise by 1.2 mb/d to a new record of 102.8 mb/d, with non-OPEC+ accounting for all of the increase.
IEA pointed out China accounted for more than two-thirds of this year’s demand growth. It added the world’s second-largest economy has experienced a slow start to its post-Covid recovery:
“China’s widely anticipated reopening has so far failed to extend beyond travel and services, with its economic recovery losing steam after the bounce earlier in the year.”
The report pointed out the gloom in Europe:
“Demand in the OECD, and Europe in particular, is languishing amid a grinding slowdown in industrial activity.”
Crude futures rose above $80 a barrel this week for the first time since late April.
Looking ahead to 2024, IEA expects oil demand growth to be halved to 1.1 million bpd because “recovery loses momentum and as ever-greater vehicle fleet electrification and efficiency measures take hold.”
The Thursday report comes as global central banks have been aggressively hiking interest rates for the last 1.5 years to tame inflation. There are signs the Federal Reserve is winning the fight against inflation, and the peak hiking cycle is nearing. However, the risk of overtightening could spark a hard economic landing.
end
Russian oil price approaches the key $60.00 and that may cut off supplies to the west
(zerohedge)
Russian Oil Price At Key Port About To Breach Sanctions Cap, Would Lead To Sharp Drop In Supply
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 04:15 AM
The reason why oil traded above $100 for much of 2022, is due to fears that it would be effectively withdrawn from global markets as a result of Western sanctions, slashing global oil supply by millions of barrels every day. While that did not pan out in the past year, with every passing day we are getting closer to testing the resolve of western leaders to make sales of Russian oil above $60 illegal.
As Bloomberg reports, at a time when Russian oil exports are finally starting to decline, the price of Russian oil at one of its Western ports is the closest to the price cap set by Group of Seven nations since the measures came into effect late last year.
Urals crude at the port of Novorossiysk in the Black Sea rose to $59.98 on Tuesday, according to data from Argus Media (the pricing agency’s assessments are important in determining future caps). Argus’s figures are central to the price cap. Urals at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk also gained, rallying to $59.38, the Argus data show.
The primary reason for the rising price – and lower Russian seaborne exports – was significantly reduced shipments from Russia’s western ports, as discussed yesterday.
Since the sanctions came into effect, oil from Russia’s has largely traded above the price cap — which prevents access to Western services including insurance — but prices in the West, which serves non-Asian markets, have yet to hit that level, Argus data show. That in part reflects a huge gap between the price at the ports of loading and delivery, almost all of which goes to middlemen.
US officials have long argued that the price cap is there to give buyers leverage while ensuring that, if Russia can’t transport its own barrels, there is no consequent oil supply shock. But a breaching of $60 for Urals would nonetheless suggest Russia’s ability to get its barrels delivered independently is growing.
Should the price of oil keep rising higher, and with Brent now above $80 and approaching YTD highs with OPEC+ supply cuts finally starting to bite…
… a big chunk of Russian oil that was formerly available for purchase to western nations is about to become non grata, leading to another violent repricing of global energy markets and leading to a price spike, one which comes at the worst possible time: just as the market is convinced the Fed is doing hiking. Only, a few more weeks of oil above $80 and headline inflation is about to head back over 5% in no time.
If Russia’s top export grade surpasses the $60 threshold, Bloomberg notes that it would allow Moscow to claim a win of sorts by showing Russia can get its barrels to buyers around the world without help from western firms. The price cap allows Russian oil to be transported with western ships and insurance only if it’s priced below the threshold.
But a vast shadow fleet of (mostly Indian and Greek) tankers has emerged since sanctions ratcheted up last year, helping to haul the nation’s oil and work around the cap. Yet in a potential twist, yesterday Bloomberg reported that the fleet of tankers that sprouted up out of nowhere to keep Russia’s oil moving has disbanded even faster than it emerged:
The “shadow fleet” of tankers, which was created to ensure the transportation of Russian oil, has shrunk tenfold.
Mumbai-based Gatik Ship Management now marshals a fleet of just four oil tankers, according to Equasis, an international maritime database set up to promote safe shipping. As recently as April it had 42, having amassed most of those carriers in under a year.
This development which would make delivering illicit Russian oil which traded above the price cap, much more difficult.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
We are stupid if we go for the central bank digital currency
59% of Canadians would use a central bank digital currency, but many have concerns
ONCE THIS HAPPENS everyone will be at risk because your social scores will determine your access to your money; and not your labor. Have no illusions about this. As for cash it will disappear because there will be no option given. Canada like many nations has a debt problem like many other nations. And in such conditions absolute unfettered control is required to maintain power.
Think about those folks with debt over extending on mortgages and lines of credit who dare to voice opinions contrary to Governmental dictates. They will get lower social credit scores and perhaps lose their banking. With such an event what chance will they have? It was seen with the Freedom Convoy and whether one agreed with their stand, they did express free speech contrary to Trudeau and many folks paid for that. If you think metals will protect one from government over reach then think again because you could lose it all with a lowering of a social score to zero for daring to opt out. There will be no consideration for anyone who relies on cash for a Livelihood. You will be part of a system or simply be outside of it. There will be no middle ground.
Such conditions are ripe for abuse with tyranny at the hands of government. And if one has doubts remember the lockdowns easily forgotten when you had to show a vaccine pass to enter a restaurant. This was a test like much of what went on during that period. A sad time approaches and what was the good old days will be just that. And the days and times when the fruit of one’s labor to be freely be enjoyed will be altered for a period of time. And do not forget a carbon tax is in the works in addition to what exists already.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1176 UP 0.0035
USA/ YEN 138.45 UP 0.126 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.3072 UP 0.0076
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3151 DOWN .0033 (CDN DOLLAR UP 33 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 40.34 PTS OR 1,26%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 489.67 PTS OR 2.60%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.55% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 489.67 PTS OR 2.60%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.34 PTS OR 1.26%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.55%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 475.40 PTS OR 1.49%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1959.50
silver:$24.27
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 99.87 DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1516
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1512)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.14 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.463…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.810% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.931 DOWN 2 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 26.39 points or 0.36%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 132,37 PTS OR 0.83%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 46.82 PTS OR 0.63%
Spain IBEX UP 30.00 PTS OR 0.32%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 215.02 PTS OR 0.75%
WTI Oil price 76,35 12: EST
Brent Oil: 80.81 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 90.09 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 78//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.465 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.484 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.1225 UP 0.0084 OR 84 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3178 UP .01420 or 142 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.447 % DOWN 11 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 137,99 DOWN 0.336 //YEN UP 34BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3108 DOWN .0036 CDN dollar, UP 36 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 77.22
Brent OIL: 81.60
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 11 BASIS pts to 3.757%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 9 BASIS PTS to 3.890%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 13 PTS AT 4.614%
USA dollar index: 99.44 DOWN 75 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.07 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.11 UP 0 AND 76/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 46.86 PTS OR 0.14%
NASDAQ 100 UP 264.75 PTS OR 1.73%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.52 down 0.02 PTS (0.15)%
GLD: $182.01 UP 0.13 OR 0.07%
SLV/ $22.78 UP .63 OR 2.84%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Broke-Buck Mounting After Soft PPI; Crude, Crypto, & The Yield Curve Soar
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Following a benign CPI release Wednesday, the June PPI release also came in softer than expected this morning (and initial claims fell), sparking calls for “mission accomplished” headlines for The Fed.
But tomorrow marks the kick-off for the bulk of earnings season (with the banks reporting) which could spark some renewed volatility (although many suggest the bar for earnings season is already set so low that even Zelenksy could step over it).
The ‘good’ inflation news sent rate-change expectations for the rest of the year tumbling (July remains a lock for 25bps). The market is now pricing in a 25bps hike in July, no move through year-end, and a rate-cut in Jan ’24…
Source: Bloomberg
The biggest headline-maker in the markets today was the USDollar. The DXY tumbled for the 6th straight day – the longest losing streak since July 2020 – down 4.5% in that period (the biggest such drop since Nov 2022).
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar Index is back to pre-COVID-lockdown levels…
Source: Bloomberg
Nasdaq soared higher today as The Dow lagged (barely in the green) with Small Caps and the S&P up comfortably too…
The S&P 500 is now 3% above the level it was at when The Fed first hiked rates in March 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Meme stocks are now up 17% in the last few days…
Source: Bloomberg
As ‘most shorted’ stocks continued to get squeezed, now up 20% in the last two weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
If those charts don’t make you laugh, nothing will…
Treasuries were bid once again today with the belly outperforming once again (5Y-15bps, 30Y -5bps), and all notably lower in yield on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
With 2Y Yields now down over 50bps from last week’s highs, having thoroughly rejected the 5.00% and pre-SVB levels…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (5s30s) surged steeper again today, edging ever closer to un-inverting…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin soared to it highest since May 2022, helped by the SEC losing its case against Ripple. Ethereum also ripped today, back above $2000.
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices extended gains today, helped by news that Libya’s Sharara oil field will be halted, and the weak PPI easing restrictive Fed fears. WTI topped $77, back above pre-OPEC spike levels from March…
Gold held on to yesterday’s gains…
Finally, as cash exits the Fed’s reverse repo facility, it appears the US equity market is benefiting…
Source: Bloomberg
Is this what The Fed wants? Another wealth-creating bubble that will re-juice inflation?
b) THIS MORNING TRADING//
END
II) USA DATA/
This should be good for gold as PPI tumbles
(zerohedge)
US Producer Price Inflation Tumbles To Slowest In 3 Years
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 08:37 AM
After consumer price inflation slowed faster than expected yesterday, all eyes are on the pipeline with producer price inflation expected to slow to just +0.4% YoY in June. Instead it fell further (+0.1% MoM), with PPI barely positive on a YoY basis (+0.1%)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the slowest YoY PPI print since August 2020.
The pipeline for PPI signals further deflation is imminent with intermediate demand goods prices down over 9% YoY – worse than the trough of the COVID lockdowns…
Source: Bloomberg
This appears to be further ‘good news’ for The Fed (and the bulls)… or is the deflationary pressure a signal of recession?
end
Unadjusted jobless claims rise to 6 months highs
‘Unadjusted’ Jobless Claims Rise To 6-Month Highs
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 08:43 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week fell to 237k last week (from 249k the prior week) on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Without the ‘seasonal adjustment’, initial jobless claims rose to its highest since January…
Source: Bloomberg
Michigan, New York, and Ohio saw the biggest jump in jobless claims last week while Texas and New Jersey saw the biggest decline…
Continuing Claims ticked up (from 1.718mm to 1.729mm) last week…
Source: Bloomberg
So, on an ‘adjusted’ basis, everything looks awesome – thank the lord for Bidenomics!
end
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Auto insurers hit by the worst crisis in 30 years which sends premiums skyrocketing
(zerohedge)
Auto Insurers Hit By Worst Crisis In “30 Years,” Sends Premiums Skyrocketing
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 06:55 AM
On the inflation front, consumers have a reason to celebrate, as prices for used cars saw a significant drop in June. However, there’s a flip side to this as auto insurance rates soar, driven mainly by higher repair costs, larger medical bills, and soaring litigation fees.
The Wall Street Journal found Allstate has jacked up car insurance premiums by 40% in Georgia, Nationwide Mutual Insurance has increased insurance rates by 32% in California, and State Farm has bumped rates in New York by 11%. The reason is that many of these insurers have experienced significant losses over the last several years, an indication premiums will continue to rise well into 2024.
“Rates need to rise probably 5 to 10 percent in each of the next couple of years, because the loss trends have gone up so much,” said Dale Porfilio, chief insurance officer at industry group Insurance Information Institute.
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published June’s latest Consumer Price Index data. While US annual inflation cooled to 3% last month, a subcomponent of the index, car insurance rates, soared 16.9% year-over-year, taking out pandemic highs.
According to S&P Global, car insurers lost an average of 12 cents for every dollar of premium written. The main drivers were soaring repair bills, larger medical bills, and higher litigation costs. America’s largest insurer, State Farm, lost 28 cents for every premium written last year. It posted a $13 billion underwriting loss for its auto arm.
“It’s probably the worst period for auto insurers it’s been in 30 years at least,” said Neil Alldredge, chief executive of industry body National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies.
Even though used car prices are coming off highs and tumbling, the cost of operating a vehicle remains elevated, if that’s filling up the gas tank, paying for insurance, and or repair costs, the whole American dream of affording a car and home is becoming more and more unattainable.
END
Bidenomics Fail: Nationwide Spike In Family Homelessness
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 10:30 AM
In June, the White House revealed a new public relations campaign called “Bidenomics” to define President Biden’s economic agenda ahead of the 2024 presidential election cycle.
“I don’t know what the hell that is, but it’s working,” Biden stated at a June 17 rally in Philadelphia, begging the question, is it actually working?
Americans, particularly middle-class ones, have been crushed in the inflation storm. They’ve been battered by two years of negative real wage growth, forcing many to quickly draw down on savings while using credit cards in a high-interest-rate environment to make ends meet.
And, of course, the Biden administration is taking credit for the decline in the inflation rate from its 9.1% peak in June of 2022 to the 3.1% last month. But inflation is still rising above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
The latest sign Bidenomics has not been particularly rewarding to middle America is new data from Bloomberg that shows the number of families experiencing homelessness skyrocketed this year across 20 major cities.
“Family homelessness in the US is on the rise in an alarming sign of how the increasing cost of goods, the ever-tightening housing supply and the end of most pandemic-era benefits are putting pressure on Americans,” Bloomberg said.
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics says real average hourly earnings have fallen 3.16% during the Biden Presidency.”
A shocking 72,700 people in families with children were homeless in 20 cities across the nation as of January, a massive 37.6% jump from a year before, according to an analysis of data provided by jurisdictions. Some of the most significant year-over-year changes in family homelessness were in major metros run by Democrats.
Bloomberg noted, “The situation is likely even more grim than the numbers show: so-called point-in-time samples often are a significant undercount, and cities including San Francisco and Seattle — which have dire homeless crises — were excluded from the analysis because they only counted the number of people in their shelters this year.”
The explosion of family homelessness is another sign that Bidenomics is failing middle of America.
end
Seems that a couple of pharmaceutical entities are in trouble for filing false claims
The Supreme Court resurrected two whistleblower lawsuits against companies for allegedly defrauding Medicare and Medicaid.
The cases concern the federal False Claims Act (FCA), a key tool the government uses to combat health care fraud, and “scienter,” a legal term meaning prior intent or knowledge of wrongdoing.
Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) has called the FCA “the centerpiece of the government’s anti-fraud arsenal.”
The new orders followed the court’s unanimous decision on June 1 to reinstate whistleblower actions against pharmacy operators SuperValu and Safeway for allegedly overcharging the government by filing false Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement claims for prescription drugs they sold.
That ruling, United States ex rel. Schutte v. SuperValu, held that the scienter requirement under the False Claims Act, which asks whether an accused party “knowingly” filed a “false” claim with the government, refers to the party’s knowledge and subjective beliefs, as opposed to what an objectively reasonable person may have believed.
Sometimes called the Lincoln Law, the FCA was enacted in 1863 to deal with defense contractor fraud during the Civil War.
The act currently provides that anyone who knowingly files false claims with the government is liable for triple damages plus a $2,000 penalty for each false claim.
The FCA allows the government to pursue perpetrators on its own and for private citizens to sue those who defraud the government on behalf of the government in what are known as qui tam suits. Such private citizens, who are called relators, may be awarded part of what the government recovers.
To prove scienter under the statute, the government or the whistleblower must demonstrate that the company acted “knowingly,” or with “reckless disregard,” or “deliberate ignorance” of the law in question.
On June 30, in Olhausen v. Arriva Medical LLC and United States ex rel. Sheldon v. Allergan Sales LLC, the Supreme Court summarily granted the petitions of two whistleblowers while at the same time skipping over the oral argument phase when the merits of the case would have been considered.
The court issued unsigned orders in the two cases in a flurry of eleventh-hour rulings as it wrapped up its regular term and recessed for the summer. The court did not explain why it made the two new decisions. No justices dissented.
At the same time, the court vacated the judgments of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit in Olhausen and of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit in Sheldon, remanding those respective cases to those lower courts in light of its decision last month in United States ex rel. Schutte v. SuperValu.
The number of unsold electric vehicles at dealers in the second quarter tripled compared to the past year, signaling a weakened demand for the segment, said a recent report by leading auto-dealer data company Cox Automotive.
In second quarter 2023, the average inventory for electric vehicles (EVs) topped more than 92,000 units on the ground at dealer lots, according to the 2023 Cox Automotive Mid-Year Review presentation. This is up 342 percent compared to second quarter 2022. During this period, the new “EV days’ supply,” which refers to the average number of days a warehouse holds inventory before selling it, rose 166 percent, to 92 days from 38.5 days. While the pace of EV sales is up, it is “not rising as fast as inventory builds,” said Jonathan Gregory, senior manager, Economic and Industry Insights.
Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are facing a “field of dreams moment,” he stated. “They have built inventory, and now they wait for buyers to come. This is one of the hottest topics we’ve had this year.”
Brands like Jaguar, Infiniti, and Lincoln had the highest days of supply, at over 100 days. The lowest numbers were seen among Toyota, Honda, Kia, and Lexus, with each brand having less than 30 days of supply.
Tesla continued to dominate the luxury EV segment with a market share of 25.5 percent, followed by Mercedes at 12.5 percent, BMW at 12.2 percent, and Lexus at 11 percent. Among EVs priced above $50,000, Ford held the biggest share at 22.1 percent, followed by Chevrolet at 12.1 percent.
Unlike other parts of the world, U.S. citizens remain on the sidelines when considering an EV purchase.
According to an April 2023 report by consumer intelligence company JD Power, more Americans are unwilling to buy EVs. In March, 21 percent of new vehicle shoppers said they were “very unlikely” to consider an EV, up from 17.8 percent in January.
During this period, the proportion of people who said they were “very likely” to buy an EV remained flat at around 26 percent.
“Lack of public charging infrastructure and price have been the top two concerns for the past 10 months, along with related issues involving range anxiety, time required to charge, and power outage and grid concerns,” the report said.
Dealer-Customer EV Expectations Diverge
While inventory is building up at dealer lots, a study by Cox Automotive found a wide gap between dealers and customers regarding future expectations of EV use.
According to Cox Automotive’s 2023 Path to “EV Adoption: Consumer and Dealer Perspectives” study, even though 53 percent of consumers see EVs as a future and that such vehicles will replace gas engines over time, only 31 percent of dealers held such a view.
“Nearly half (45 percent) of dealers surveyed feel that EVs still need to prove themselves in the marketplace,” said a press release on June 27.
In addition, the study also found that while customer interest in EVs is rapidly rising, sales continue to remain far lower in comparison. The research found that 51 percent of consumers were considering a new or used EV even though electric vehicles are only expected to make up less than 8 percent of total new vehicle sales this year.
Cox Automotive is expecting the sale of new EVs to surpass one million units for the first time in 2023. According to the firm’s Dealer Sentiment Index, the biggest factor which held back EV dealers during the second quarter was the state of the economy. This was followed by interest rates, limited inventory, market conditions, and credit availability for consumers.
end
USA// COVID
SWAMP STORIES
“A Complete Failure”: Secret Service Suddenly Closes White House Cocaine Investigation Without Naming Suspect
THURSDAY, JUL 13, 2023 – 12:12 PM
Update (1211ET): The Secret Service on Thursday announced that it’s closed the investigation into how cocaine ended up at the White House without identifying a suspect.
“There was no surveillance video footage found that provided investigative leads or any other means for investigators to identify who may have deposited the found substance in this area,” the agency said in a statement. “Without physical evidence, the investigation will not be able to single out a person of interest from the hundreds of individuals who passed through the vestibule where the cocaine was discovered. At this time, the Secret Service’s investigation is closed due to a lack of physical evidence.”
According to the statement, the Secret Service said the bag of cocaine was “subjected to advanced fingerprint and DNA analysis.”
Lack of physical evidence? Nothing on the bag, and there’s an area of the White House that isn’t surveilled? Do we need to call the paw patrol to figure this one out?
In response to a Thursday closed-door briefing to members and staff of the House Oversight Committee, Republicans called the case a ‘failure’ of the agency.
“And to say that they don’t know who it is, to me, somebody should lose their job over this. This thing’s a trash can. Everybody wants to pick and choose they need to shut the whole thing down put the garden hose to it and clean it out,” said Rep. Tim Burchett, who called it a “complete failure” and said that the Biden administration is “thumbing their nose at the American public.”
Biden critics are accusing the White House of a “cocaine cover-up” as the Secret Service investigation into “CocaineGate” drags on with no resolution.
Amid growing skepticism regarding the trustworthiness of the “ongoing investigation,” the Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Tuesday didn’t have an update for reporters.
“Do you have any update on the investigation into the cocaine at the White House?” a reporter inquired.
“I don’t have any updates,” Jean-Pierre responded. “I just don’t have anything updated. I would refer you to the Secret Service on that particular question.”
The USSS have not been answering to press inquiries about the discovery, however, telling news outlets that they cannot comment on ongoing investigations. The Secret Service will be briefing Congress on Thursday, after House Oversight Chairman James Comer Comer fired off a letter to USSS Director Kimberly Cheatle demanding to be briefed on the White House security failures that led to the “unacceptable and shameful” discovery of cocaine in the West Wing.
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) also called for a briefing in a letter on July 5.
“If the White House complex is not secure, Congress needs to know the details, as well as your plan to correct any flaws,” the Republican senator wrote, demanding a list be provided of every individual who has access to the White House without passing through a security screening.
According to the Daily Mail, Cotton has not yet received a reply from Cheatle.
Details about where the cocaine baggie was found have changed multiple times since the discovery was made on July 2.
Initially, a spokesman for the USSS told reporters that Secret Service officers “located an unknown item on the White House complex.” Then, an audio recording from the Hazmat team sent to the White House to investigate the substance indicated it was located in the library. Next, the White House said it was found in the highly trafficked West Wing lobby.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Wednesday strongly suggested that a member of the public on a tour may have left the drug in a “heavily-traveled area” of the West Wing.
“This is a heavily, heavily trafficked – heavily traveled to be more accurate – area of the campus of the White House. And it is where visitors to the West Wing come,” Jean-Pierre insisted.
“I just don’t have anything else—I’m not going to speculate on who it was.”
Finally, on Thursday, NBC News reported that the contraband was found in a cubby near the “much more secure” West Executive entrance—not the West Wing lobby.
According to NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, “average people just can’t get in” where the cocaine baggie was found.
Although fingerprint and DNA analysis were done last week on the “dime-sized zipper baggie” the drug was found in, no results have yet been shared. The investigation was expected to be concluded by Monday.
Now, some are accusing the Biden White House of engaging in a cover up to protect the culprit.
On Fox News Monday, Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Texas) said the Biden White House is refusing to hand over the results of the finger print analysis.
“If the cocaine was found on a bag, doesn’t it have fingerprints on it? And how long would it take to answer that question? Weeks, days, hours?” asked Fox News host Martha MacCallum.
“I asked some of our State Troopers, Texas Rangers and Sheriffs—those kinds of people who do this for a living—and they all said to me that on very porous surfaces like bags and envelopes, you’ll be able to determine within an hour if there’s fingerprints on it,” Rep Fallon replied.
“By my math we’re 192 hours from the time it was discovered yet we don’t know.” Fallon noted that “if there were no fingerprints, they could have told us immediately.”
The Texas congressman also said the fingerprints may have been run through a database and pointed out that the cocaine was found in an area “where high level aides and staffers are,” most of whom “have been fingerprinted at one time or another.”
Fallon told MacCallum that the Secret Service “very well may already know who it belongs to and aren’t sharing with us.”
Kash Patel, a former House Intelligence Committee staffer, and chief of staff to the acting United States secretary of defense under President Donald Trump, told former Trump official Sebastian Gorka on Tuesday that local law enforcement, not just the Secret Service, should be involved in the investigation.
“The White House is subjected to law enforcement and we’re talking about felony levels of narcotics,” he said.
In an interview with Just the News, former FBI agent and acting commissioner of the Customs and Border Protection Agency Mark Morgan said last week that the White House cocaine mystery should take “about 30 minutes to solve.”
“I was there countless times, I put my cell phone in that exact box that they’re talking about. I know it well. Oftentimes, there is a marine that’s standing there. This literally should take them about 30 minutes to solve,” Morgan said on Wednesday.
According to former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino, the culprit has to be a member of the Biden family because everyone else has to go through a strict security checkpoint. “It had to be one of the protectees—there’s no other explanation,” Bongino declared in a video posted on Rumble. “That would never have gotten through the checkpoint. Not a chance in Hell.”
On Friday, even an MSNBC reporter questioned the Secret Service’s line that the mystery may never be solved, saying it’s “hard to believe” the Secret Service can’t figure out who brought the cocaine to the White House, given the heavy security.
“The cocaine cover-up is officially ridiculous,” said Judicial Watch president Tom Fitton in a video commentary posted onto Twitter.
Cheatle will brief members of the powerful House Oversight Committee on Thursday at 10 a.m., the Daily Mail reported.
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report July 13, 2023 Issue 7031
Independent View of the News
US June CPI +0.2% m/m & 3% y/y, 0.3% m/m & 3.1% y/y expected; Core 0.2% m/m & 4.8% y/y, 0.3% m/m & 5.0% y/y consensus Full CPI Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
Perceived Fed conduit, the WSJ’s @NickTimiraos: The June CPI report probably won’t alter the Fed’s planned July hikebut it reduces the prospect of that second hike. Most officials penciled in two more increases last month but did so on the assumption that inflation would decline more slowly. Why the Fed won’t overreact to one appreciably better CPI report: 1) Inflation has slowed before only to rebound later. (July/Aug ’21 appeared to validate the ‘transitory’ hypothesis) 2) the auto and shelter disinflation has been anticipated for months.https://t.co/Hi3r6AkQeu
@charliebilello: Price changes over last year (June CPI report)
Transportation: +8.2% Shelter: +7.8% Electricity: +5.4% New Cars: +4.1% Overall CPI: +3.0% Medical Care: -0.8% Used Cars: -5.2% Food at home: +4.7% Gas Utilities: -18.6% Gasoline: -26.5% Fuel Oil: -36.6%
Food away from home: +7.7%
@charliebilello: Increases over the last 3 years... CPI Medical Care: +5.1%
CPI Apparel: +13.6% US Wages: +14.3% New Cars: +22.1% Electricity: +24.5% Gas Utilities: +30.3% CPI Transportation: +30.3% CPI Used Cars: +46.9% CPI CPI Fuel Oil: +59.7% CPI Gasoline: +70.2%
Food away from home: +20.8%; CPI Food at home: +18.5% CPI Shelter: +16.7%; Actual Rents: +24.0% Actual Home Prices: +38.6%
CNBC: Here’s the inflation breakdown for June, in one charthttps://t.co/n6JcMRmrQt (Motor vehicle repair +19.8% y/y, Motor vehicle insurance +16.9% y/y, Frozen Veggies +17.6% y/y)
Grocery prices jumped slightly last month as egg prices drop and processed foods see sticky inflationhttps://t.co/ZqqZshFGY4
The dollar tumbled on hope of a Fed pause while commodities, particularly precious metals soared. Of course, a cascading dollar is inflationary.
Once again, US economic data was leaked prior to the official 8:30 ET release. ESUs jumped 20 handles from 8:28 ET until the June CPI Report was released at 8:30 ET. After a modest retreat, ESUs plodded higher as those in the know or the good guessers liquidated into dumb money buyers. ESUs and stocks hit a peak at 10:41 ET. They then sank until a Noon Balloon developed right on schedule.
After a modest retreat when the noon hour lapsed, ESUs and stocks plodded higher until ESUs and stocks broke lower at 14:37 ET. After falling 23.25 from the session high, ESUs hit a bottom at 15:25 ET. A 10-handle rebound ended near 15:45 ET. ESUs and stocks traded sideways into the close.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied on hope of a Fed pause and pattern buying ahead of the coming Q2 earnings season Bonds rallied sharply Nasdaq closed at an 18-month high
Negative aspects of previous session The dollar got hammered; precious metals soared; commodities rallied robustly The DJTA turned solidly negative after the 11:30 ET European close Stocks rescinded most of their rallies
Ambiguous aspects of previous session The post benign CPI rally was not as strong as expected. Are traders too long?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4474.59 Previous session High/Low: 4488.34; 4463.23
Chinese intelligence hacked U.S government emails in ‘significant’ breach It’s the second time in recent months that government officials have acknowledged a China-based cyberattack on U.S. government infrastructure. The threat was contained shortly after it was first reported, but data suggests the hackers had access to government systems since at least May 2023. Chinese intelligence hacked into Microsoft email accounts belonging to two dozen government agencies in the United States and Western Europe in a “significant” breach, according to Microsoft and U.S. national security officials… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/us-government-emails-compromised-by-china-based-espionage-group.html
Three major tax-prep companies sold the personal finance info of tens of millions of Americans to Meta – If you got your taxes done with H&R Block, TaxAct, or TaxSlayer, there’s a VERY good chance that Mark Zuckerberg now owns the info you input into your tax returns… https://t.co/HBTYQ49Tno
NATO Is Papering Over the Cracks After Zelenskiy Loses His CoolUkrainian team angered by lack of clarity on NATO timelineLeaders spent Wednesday cleaning up after Zelenskiy’s outburstVolodymyr Zelenskiy was running hot ahead of his sit-down with NATO leaders on Tuesday evening. The Ukrainian president had been angered earlier in the day by what he said was an “absurd” reluctance to give his country a clear timeline on membership. That outburst in turn riled the partners who have funneled billions of dollars of weaponry and aid into Ukraine’s defense against the Russian invasion — the US had been given no warning before Zelenskiy unleashed his attack on social media… Over dinner in Vilnius, with US President Joe Biden back at his hotel, the other leaders delivered a clear message to Zelenskiy, according to one person who was present. You have to cool down and look at the full package, Zelenskiy was told… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-12/nato-is-papering-over-the-cracks-after-zelenskiy-loses-his-cool#xj4y7vzkg
@KyivIndependent: Biden: U.S. is considering sending ATACMS to Ukraine – The U.S. is considering providing long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, President Biden confirmed in a statement on July 12.
BASF cuts 2023 earnings guidance on weak industrial demandhttp://reut.rs/3rpPzw4 In an unscheduled statement, BASF said earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) and adjusted for special items would be 4.0 billion euros to 4.4 billion euros ($4.90 billion) in 2023. It had previously projected adjusted EBIT of 4.8 billion euros to 5.4 billion euros for the year, down from 6.9 billion in 2022.
Today – Q2 earnings reporting season commences. Big banks begin reporting results tomorrow. JPM is at its highest level since February 2022. Other big bank stocks have been exceptionally weak while the general stock market has rallied robustly for the past few quarters.
After the strong equity rallies on Monday and Tuesday, the early rally on Wednesday was weak. It suggests that traders were too long for an expected benign June CPI Report – and might be too long headed into Q2 earnings season. Wednesday’s action suggests that stocks could be lackluster on diminished volume as traders await big bank earnings on Friday. ESUs are +5.75 at 20:15 ET.
Expected earnings: FAST .52, DAL 2.41, PEP 1.96
Expected economic data: June PPI 0.2% m/m & 0.4% y/y; Core PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.6% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 250, Continuing Claims 1.72m; SF Fed Pres Daly 11:10 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4270; 100-day MA: 4152; 150-day MA: 4092; 200-day MA: 4022 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,677; 100-day MA: 33,371; 150-day MA: 33,458; 200-day MA: 33,034 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4220.30 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4378.31 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4436.46 triggers a sell signal
@martyrmade: The US military that won World War 2 had one flag officer for every 6,000 personnel. Today’s version has one General or Admiral for every 1,400 personnel. There were seven 4-stars in 1943, there are like 44 now. It’s led to a dilution of authority and responsibility.
Disney’s Feminist Indiana Jones Sequel Bombs Hard – Media Pretends They Don’t Know Why Disney’s next mistake was putting a rabid feminist like Kathleen Kennedy at the helm of some of the biggest franchises in Hollywood history. Kennedy is perhaps best known as Steven Spielberg’s coffee girl, a secretary that he himself noted was not very good at her job… Disney’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was clearly a forced scheme to bring back a favored male hero and replace him with a narcissistic female protagonist that spouts woke rhetoric… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/disneys-feminist-indiana-jones-sequel-bombs-hard-media-pretends-they-dont-know-why
Notre Dame Professor Sues Student Paper for Reporting on Her Abortion Advocacy A pro-abortion Notre Dame professor has filed a defamation lawsuit against student journalists on campus who have reported on her activism, which included offering to help students obtain abortions. Tamara Kay, a sociology and global-affairs professor, filed the suit against the Irish Rover, the school’s independent conservative student newspaper, claiming that two of its articles contained “defamatory and false statements.”… https://www.nationalreview.com/news/notre-dame-professor-sues-student-paper-for-reporting-on-her-abortion-advocacy/
The Irish Rover: We Will Not Be Silenced After months of leveling false accusations and fundraising for litigation against the Irish Rover, Notre Dame Professor Tamara Kay has filed a civil suit in the state of Indiana, claiming that two recent Irish Rover articles contained “defamatory and false statements.” Professor Kay’s allegations against the Rover are entirely false. And her lawsuit reflects only the latest stage in a tenured professor’s baseless public campaign against undergraduates at her own university who had the temerity to publish accurate stories about her very public abortion advocacy… In the October 12, 2022 edition of the Irish Rover, W. Joseph DeReuil, who was then editor-in-chief, reported on Professor Kay’s promotion of abortion access that fall. The report relied upon Kay’s public statements, including her presentation at a university-sponsored lecture, as well as an interview conducted by DeReuil. Aside from the comments drawn from the interview, the facts reported in DeReuil’s article were already matters of public record. Nonetheless, Professor Kay responded to the article’s publication by backtracking, denying that she had made the statements recorded by the Rover… Simply put, the articles discussing Professor Kay’s abortion advocacy were fair and accurate in all respects. The record will confirm this beyond dispute… (Is anyone funding Kay’s lawsuit?) https://irishrover.net/2023/07/we-will-not-be-silenced/
harveyorganblog.com 
