JULY 17////GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $6.60 TO $1953.15/SILVER PRICE FELL 19 CENTS TO $24.80//PLATINUM FINISHED UP $1.90 TO $979.90 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED FLAT AT $1285.25//IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES TODAY FROM PETER SCHIFF RE JIM GRANT AND ZOLTAN POSZAR/UPDATES ON THE UKRAINE VS RUSSIA WAR: MOST IMPORTANT, RUSSIA STOPS ALL WHEAT/GRAINS THROUGH THE BLACK SEA//COVID UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS/NEW ADDICTS//USA NEWS: LUXURY GOODS GIANT REPORTS BIG DROP IN USA SALES//ANOTHER HAZARDOUS TRAIN DERAILMENT NEAR PHILADELPHIA//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT..//KAREN KINGSTON INTERVIEWED BY GREG HUNTER….
190 H BMO CAPITAL 3 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 12 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 7 661 C JP MORGAN 6 690 C ABN AMRO 7 737 C ADVANTAGE 4 1
JPMorgan stopped 0/20 contracts.
FOR JULY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT: 20 NOTICES FOR 2000 OZ or 0.0672 TONNES
total notices so far: 2514 contracts for 251,400 oz (7.8195 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 15 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 75,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4041 for 20,205,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES FORM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.27 AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 455.875 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 4,291 CONTRACTS TO 141.937 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.27 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A GOOD SIZED 449 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH . CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 449 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.27). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS ATMOSPHERIC GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7781CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.25MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 3490 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 170,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP+ 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING: 21.130 MILLION OZ + 1.20 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 22.130 MILLION OZ/ // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) GOOD NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (449CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – 490 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 days, total 11,171 contracts: OR 55.855 MILLION OZ (1124 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 55.855 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 55.855 MILLION OZ (LARGER THAN LAST MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE ATMOSPHERIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4291 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.27 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 3490 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 16.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 170,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 1.25 MILLION OZ): TOTAL NOW STANDING 1,25 MILLION OZ + 21.130 MILLION OZ (NORMAL STANDING) = 22.30 MILLION OZ.///// .. WE HAVE A HUGE ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF7781 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A FAIR 449//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (449) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.
WE HAD 15 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 75,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 7640 CONTRACTS TO 498,570 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED: 1257 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 7640 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $0.75 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1804 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 7.9129 TONNES// + /AN UNBELIEVABLY HUGE (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 33,866 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $0.75 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 7043 OI CONTRACTS (21.90 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 597CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 498,590
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7043 CONTRACTS WITH 7640 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL 597 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7043CONTRACTS OR 21,90 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 33,866 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (597 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (7640) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7043 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1804 TONNE QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 7.129 TONNES ///// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: UNBELIEVABLY HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 33,866 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 19,987 CONTRACTS OR 1,998,700 OZ OR 62.167 TONNES IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2220 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 62.167 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 62.167/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.69% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 62.167 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 4291 CONTRACTS OI TO 141,937 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 3490 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 3490and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3,490 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 4291 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 3490 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7781 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 38.905 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.07 PTS OR 0.87% //Hang Seng CLOSED /The Nikkei CLOSED //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.07 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1666 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1715 /Oil DOWN TO 74,47 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78,86 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 7640CONTRACTS DOWN TO 498,570 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.75 ON FRIDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 597 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 597 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 597 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 7043 CONTRACTS IN THAT 597LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 7640 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.75//FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS AN UNBELIEVABLY HUGE 33,866 CONTRACTS (5TH DAY IN A ROW/TAS GREATER THAN 20,000). THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (7.9129) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 7.9129 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $0.75) //// BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 7043 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD FEW TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION. THE MASSIVE TAS ISSUED FRIDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 21.90PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.11974 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1804 TONNES//TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY GOLD: 7.9129 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.75.
WE HAD – REMOVED 1257 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7083 CONTRACTS OR 708,300 OZ OR 21.90 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2514 notices 251400 OZ 7.8195 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals:
total withdrawals: nil oz
Adjustments; 0//
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 50 contracts having LOST 61 contracts. We had 108 contracts served on Friday. Thus we gained 58 contracts or an additional 5,800 oz of gold will stand at the comex.
AUGUST LOST 42,034 contracts DOWN to 240,346 contracts
SEPT lost 19 contracts to stand at 557
We had 20 contracts filed for today representing 2000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 6 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 20 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2514 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (50 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 20 x 100 oz per contract equals 254,400 OZ OR 7.9129 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULYcontract month: No of notices filed so far (2514) x 100 oz + (50) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (20) x 100 oz) which equals 254,400oz standing OR 7.9129 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 7.9129 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,275,815.652 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,832,906.869 (368.05 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,442,908.783 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,953,632 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 309.599 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 17
//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
,212,328.251 oz JPMorgan CNT Manfra
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
12,054.651 oz Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
15 CONTRACT(S) (75,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
185 contracts (925,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
4041 Contracts (20,205,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposits
total dealer deposit: 0 oz
total dealer deposits: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Brinks 12,054.651 oz
total customer deposits: 12,054.651 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.362 million oz/276.656 million =50.31% of comex .//
Comex withdrawals 3
i) Out of JPMorgan 5011.800 oz
ii) Out of CNT 431,435.781 oz
iii) Out of Manfra: 1,775,880.670 oz
total: 2,212,328.251 oz
adjustments: 1 Manfra/ dealer to customer
211,764.564 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.781 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 276,656 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 200 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 21 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 55 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 34 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 170,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN JULY,
AUGUST GAINED 22 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 696
SEPT HAS A GAIN OF 3157 CONTRACTS UP TO 121,842
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 15 for 75,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 45,856 fair /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 76,077 STRONG
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4041 x 5,000 oz = 20,205,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(200) and the number of notices served upon today 15 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month: 4041 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (x200) – number of notices served upon today (15 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 21.130 million oz + 1.25 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK /NEW TOTAL: 22.38 MILLION OZ..
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES
JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
GLD INVENTORY: 912.93 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JULY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX MILLION OZ/
JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
Can the Federal Reserve navigate a narrow path and slay price inflation while steering the economy to a soft landing?
During an interview on CNBC Squawk Box, financial analyst Jim Grant expressed his doubts.
He compared Jerome Powell’s task to Captain Chelsey Sullenberger’s when he was forced to land a US Airways plane on the Hudson River after an inflight emergency, noting Powell is “no Sully.”
Grant went on to explain that even if things don’t look so bad right now, rivets are popping in the economy.
The June non-farm payroll report came in with weaker-than-expected job growth and stronger-than-expected wage growth. Grant said this might be the first whiff of stagflation, and he called the jobs report a “little spritz” of the late 1970s. He said it underscores the difficulty the Federal Reserve faces in its attempt to rein in price inflation without spinning the economy into a deep recession.
It reminds me a little bit of Captain Sully on the Hudson. It requires a great deal of precision and not a little luck to do what they say they will do, which is to deliver us from the consequences of 10 years of artificially low rates.”
One of the hosts pointed out that the Fed is also trying to shrink its balance sheet, which didn’t go so well when it tried to do it back in 2018. As you might recall, quantitative tightening was on “autopilot” until the bottom fell out of the stock market in the fall of 2018. By the end of 2019, the central bank had returned to quantitative easing.
Grant said the Fed’s balance sheet looks a lot like Silicon Valley Bank’s did before it collapsed.
It very much resembles the banks that didn’t make it through March because they have an immense market-to-market loss, in excess of $900 billion as of March 31. And they are losing substantial amounts on operating. … Their losses are far greater than their capital. So, the Fed itself is a symbol of the difficulties of the world in which rates are now being normalized.”
The Fed claims this doesn’t matter – it’s just accounting. Grant agrees that it isn’t exactly a practical problem, but it is “a highly important symbolic one.”
The world, in its adaptive way, is coming to grips with the fact interest rates have been not only low but duplicative. They’ve led people to do things they wouldn’t have done if they only could have known where real rates would wind up — meaning legitimate market-determined rates.”
Even with the Fed malfeasance, we haven’t seen the problems play out in the markets. Grant noted that the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index still indicates that the current financial environment is still “easy” even after all of the talk and rate lifting.
So, there’s a difference, as someone said recently, between tightening and tight. And by the standards of the Volker era, monetary policy is not yet tight. And yet, there are undeniable signs of stringency throughout finance.”
Rivets are popping, kind of off-stage. And the question for the Fed, the question for all of us, is will the consequences of these rates now playing out and these examples of stringency — will the consequences overwhelm the Fed’s attempt?”
Is this a repeat of 2008, when things looked fine for a while, and everybody swore the problems were contained? Or is Jerome Powell really Captain Sullenberger?
He’s a nice guy, Jay Powell, but I think he is not Sully.”
And Grant said he thinks the 2008 analogy holds in terms of financial problems abating and then coming back.
How often have we seen things that didn’t appear to matter suddenly mattering?”
So, have the hiccups the economy has experienced in the last 18 months been enough to correct the excess of the Fed over the last decade-plus? Grant said he would be surprised if the Fed is able to orchestrate this nice soft landing.
I confess that is partly my temperament. I’m just not equipped to conceive the Fed might, in all of its error-laden ways, finally stick it. … I think that the distortions created by these rates, and by the expectation of Fed intervention, have been so widespread and so deep that its highly unlikely that this is the extent of the correction for those things.”
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Are the BRICS ready to trade one master for another
a must read
(Chris Powel/GATA)
Are the BRICS ready to trade one master for another?
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-07-16 14:55Section: Daily Dispatches
2:56p ET Sunday, July 16, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Prompted by the confiscation of Russian assets by the United States and its Western European allies, governments, central banks, and even mainstream news organizations are acknowledging what they should have known all along: that the more you use another nation’s currency, the more subservient to that nation you become.
Hence the various recent moves away from the U.S. dollar and the money-transfer systems controlled by the U.S. government, and, perhaps most dramatic, the idea of the BRICS nations to create a currency of their own for international trade, a currency that would be “backed by gold,” the monetary metal already abundantly held as financial reserves or produced by some of the BRICs countries.
Such a currency is expected to be on the agenda of the BRICS conference next month in South Africa.
Fairly enough this idea has caused speculation about gold’s de-facto remonetization and even the return of an international gold standard. It also has gotten gold’s advocates excited after a half century of Western gold price suppression policy, which GATA has documented for more than 20 years:
Any retreat from the dollar is sure to increase demand for monetary gold, insofar as gold is the only plausible alternative reserve currency — a politically neutral constant without counterparty risk when the owner holds it directly, a form of money long recognized around the world.
For what are the chances that the BRICS group could devise and maintain a currency incorporating anything besides gold, a currency that also had commodity components? There would be great variability in the prices of such components and differences of opinion about them within the BRICS group, probably making long-term agreement on such a currency impossible.
Additionally, of course, many BRICS governments were totalitarian and lawless, outright or in the crunch, even before the United States and its allies started moving in that direction. If the United States and its allies can’t be trusted to maintain the rule of law and property rights, how can China, Russia, and their allies be trusted?
Whatever the BRICS group does with its new currency, exactly what will “backed by gold” mean? Will the currency be officially convertible to metal at a fixed rate, and, if so, convertible by everyone who holds it or only by governments?
After all, even the U.S. dollar is still “backed by gold,” insofar as the United States can use whatever metal remains in its reserves for open or surreptitious intervention in the currency markets in support of the dollar. The currency of every country with gold reserves is “backed by gold.” Central banks used to admit that currency market intervention was the very purpose of gold reserves.
*
Full of resentment of the dollar and the imperial power it has given the United States — like the “exorbitant privilege” of paying its international debts in its own currency — the BRICS may not be thinking too much of the handicap gold itself may inflict on them. For gold as money empowers individuals and markets and disempowers government, since it diminishes government’s greatest power, the power of money creation and inflation.
What government today really wants a free market in money? As much as some governments may want to liberate themselves from the dollar and the United States, do they want to be subservient to gold instead?
And even countries with huge gold reserves in the gold, reserves with which they long ago could have liberated themselves — countries like South Africa, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and Russia — still have managed to impoverish themselves with stupid politics, economic systems, and corruption. There are many resource-rich countries that insist on being poor.
*
Gold doesn’t need the BRICS to remonetize it. It is already money, has been money for thousands of years, and well may be money for thousands more.
No, gold needs only a free market, a market without the desperate manipulation long perpetrated by government intervention with futures contracts and other derivatives and gold swaps and leases, intervention giving the false impression of vast supply when gold’s crucial value is, like the value of all sound currency, relative scarcity.
Exposing the subversion of free markets in the monetary metals has been GATA’s work. The BRICS group will succeed only if it understands this subversion and explodes it by putting real metal back into motion
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
end
India agrees to bypass the dollar buy settling trade with the UAE in rupees
(Reuters)
India agrees with UAE to settle trade in rupees
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-07-15 23:33Section: Daily Dispatches
By Arpan Chaturvedi Reuters Saturday, July 15, 2023
NEW DELHI — India has signed an agreement with the United Arab Emirates that will allow it to settle trade in rupees instead of dollars, boosting India’s efforts to cut transaction costs by eliminating dollar conversions.
During a visit by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the UAE today, the two countries also agreed to set up a real-time payment link to facilitate easier cross-border money transfers.
The two agreements will enable “seamless cross-border” transactions and payments, and foster greater economic cooperation,” said a statement from the Reserve Bank of India.
India, the world’s third biggest oil importer and consumer whose central bank last year announced a framework for settling global trade in rupees, currently pays for UAE oil in dollars. …
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.16666
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1715
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.07 PTS OR 0.87%
HANG SENG CLOSED
2. Nikkei closed
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.56 EURO RISES TO 1.1234 UP 15 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.475 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 138.27/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.4305***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.143*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.490…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.897
3j Gold at $1957.45 silver at: 24.82 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 28 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.35//
3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 138.27// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO 0.475% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8589 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9651 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.7870 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8960 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.721 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.30…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 1 BASIS PTS AT 4.445
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures, Dollar, Oil Drop After Latest Dismal Chinese Econ Data
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 08:10 AM
US equity futures were flat erasing, a modest earlier gain, while European stocks and oil retreated as bonds rallied after the latest Chinese data dump delivered more evidence of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, where Q2 GDP rose just 6.3%. below the 7.1% consensus forecast. At 7:30am, S&P futures were down 0.1% to 4,531 while Nasdaq 100 futures were fractionally in the green. Bond yields are 3-5bp lower, with the benchmark 10Y at 3.78%; the USD is weaker again; commodities are mixed with wheat pricing spiking after Russia terminated the Black Sea Grain deal; base metals are lower after the soften China GDP print. Yellen said US should further de-escalate US-China tension, but lifting tariffs may be premature. Fed entered its blackout period ahead of its July 26th FOMC. On the calendar today, we get the Empire Mfg. index data today at 8.30am ET (-3.5 survey vs. 6.6 prior).
In premarket trading, mega cap tech stocks are mostly higher, led by shares in Microsoft and Activision Blizzard which rose after a US appeals court denied the FTC’s bid to pause the deal. Separately, Microsoft also says it has a binding agreement to keep the “Call of Duty” franchise on the Sony PlayStation platform. Activision Blizzard rose 4.2% in US premarket trading on Monday; Microsoft rose as much as 0.9%. Here are some other premarket movers:
Chewy rises 4.5% in premarket trading on Monday after Goldman Sachs raised the recommendation on the online pet-supplies retailer to buy from neutral, saying margins could steadily expand over the next five years as the company grows its private label and healthcare businesses.
Paramount Global shares decline 2.2% in premarket trading after Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One, the seventh installment of the action franchise starring Tom Cruise, took in less than projected at the box office over its debut weekend in the US and Canada.
Shares of electric-vehicle makers rose in premarket trading on Monday after BYD reported a three-fold increase in first-half net profit, with electric-vehicle sales showing little impact from a price war that has roiled the industry.Among premarket movers: Tesla rose 1.7% and Lucid was up +2.1%.
The MSCI ACWI of stocks worldwide dipped 0.1% on Monday after surging 3% last week. Shares in mainland China were the worst performers in Asia. After a week of historic stock-market gains, investors started Monday on a downbeat note after data that showed China’s growth for the second quarter missed estimates and its youth unemployment rose to a fresh, and dangerous, record high of 21.3%.
Indeed, the narrative that Chinese shoppers coming out of Covid lockdowns would be able to carry the global economy, despite rising US and European interest rates is dead and buried as economic reports continue to signal slowing momentum, sparking growing speculation that Beijing will have to put some action behind its endless words of “imminent” stimulus.
“China growth weakness has been brewing in the background for months,” said Pooja Kumra, senior European rates strategist at Toronto Dominion Bank. “Clearly growth has not been able to keep pace with expectations.”
While oil prices slumped as usual on the latest Chinese economic mess, wheat futures jumped after Russia terminated a grain-export deal, jeopardizing a key trade route from Ukraine, one of the world’s top grain and vegetable oil shippers.
With its heavy dependence on the Chinese import market, European stocks are especially vulnerable. Companies tied to energy and raw materials together make up about 12% of the Stoxx Europe 600, and consumer discretionary industries account for 11%. Indeed, European stocks are on the back foot after disappointing economic data from China hit risk sentiment. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.4% and set for its largest drop in almost two weeks. Luxury goods stocks are leading declines after Richemont signaled slowing demand in its quarterly update. JPMorgan strategists expect further weakness in the region driven by lower bond yields as well as earnings disappointments. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Luxury-goods makers LVMH, Hermes and Richemont slump and lead declines in European companies exposed to China, after data showed the nation’s economy grew more slowly than expected in 2Q
Argenx shares jump as much as 27%, the most in more than three years, as analysts say the most recent trial success for its key drug Vyvgart marks another win for the Belgian biotech
MorphoSys shares rise as much as 6.7% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the German biotech to hold, ahead of the phase 3 read-out of its MANIFEST-2 study of pelabresib to treat myelofibrosis (bone cancer)
Oxford Nanopore shares gain as much as 3.9% after the DNA-sequencing firm’s 1H revenue beat estimates, with the company noting that growth continues to be driven by its expanding customer base
Victrex rises as much as 2.7% as Berenberg says the specialty chemicals company’s profit warning “spooked” the market, but may act as a clearing event
Gresham House gains as much as 57% after Searchlight agreed to buy the asset manager for 1,105p/share in cash, representing a 63% premium to the July 14 closing price
Bakkafrost falls as much as 12%, the most since September, after the salmon firm issued weak 2Q preliminary results and a profit warning, undermined in particular by a poor harvest in the Faroes
Coca- Cola HBC shares fall as much as 3.8%, the most since May 25, with Goodbody saying renewed Russia fears could weigh on the bottling firm’s stock price in the near term
Johnson Matthey shares gain as much as 1.7% in London, outperforming its sector that is suffering from disappointing China data, after Deutsche Bank upgrades UK-based chemicals firm to buy
GAM shares fall as much as 5.6% as company continues to report losses and declining assets under management, says Vontobel, adding the Swiss firm’s financial situation remains “very difficult”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined as a slower-than-expected growth in China’s economy weighed on mainland equities. Trading in Hong Kong was delayed due to a typhoon. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell as much as 0.4%, on course to end the gauge’s five-day winning streak. Shares in mainland China and Taiwan, such as TSMC, were the biggest drags on the index. Japan was closed for a holiday while Hong Kong canceled morning trading and will likely scrap the afternoon session as well because of typhoon Talim. The second-quarter GDP data showed that China’s economy grew slower than expected with consumer spending easing notably in June. The disappointing growth data further dented sentiment after the central bank scaled back its injection of medium-term policy loans despite weak growth. The key stock benchmark in the mainland dropped as much as 1.1%, the most in three weeks.
Monday’s weakness came after the MSCI Asia Pacific Index capped its best weekly rally since November last week, thanks to big gains in North Asia. Analysts said Asian stocks will likely resume gains after Monday’s breather, driven by the recovery in tech cycle and China’s stimulus hopes.
“We remain tactically positive on Asian stocks,” Nomura analysts including Chetan Seth said, adding that “the positive momentum in stocks can continue at least in the very near term.” They said that Korean markets will be the main beneficiary of a softer dollar and a resilient US economy due to their exposure to tech and artificial intelligence. South Korea’s benchmark index fell Monday after its best weekly gain since mid-January. Investors are also monitoring a slew of corporate earnings this week as the quarterly reporting season begins.
The relentless bubble that is Indian stocks advanced for a consecutive third session as benchmark Sensex posted its biggest surge this month to extend its record run, supported by gains in banks and software firms. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.8% to 66,589.93 as of 03:45 p.m. in Mumbai, its biggest single-day gain since June 30, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.8% to 19,711.45. HDFC Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%, as the lender said net income rose 30% to 119.5 billion rupees ($1.45 billion) for the three months ended June 30, compared with 92 billion rupees a year ago. That surpassed analyst expectations for 114 billion rupees in a Bloomberg survey. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 18 rose, while 12 fell
In FX, the US Dollar was pressured against the yen and the euro, while the soft China data also impacted currency markets, where the Aussie and Kiwi are the worst performers among the G-10s; the yuan also declined. The yen and franc outperform on haven demand. “EUR/USD appears a bit overstretched in the short term and could face a correction this week,” ING strategists wrote in a note. Traders are almost fully discounting a 25 bps hike by the Fed later this month, and price roughly a one-in-three chance of a final tightening in November.
“Commodity currencies are weighed by weaker-than-expected China activity data, while the precipitous USD decline last week has also given them scope to retrace lower,” said Fiona Lim, senior currency analyst at Malayan Banking Berhad in Singapore. “However, there could still be some hopes for a more significant stimulus package to be announced for China that could keep” commodity-linked currencies such as AUD and NZD from declining too sharply, she said
In rates, treasuries advanced with 10-year note futures testing Friday session highs and yields richer by 5bp-6bp across belly of the curve into early US session. Stocks slip, supporting gains in Treasuries, which are outperforming core European rates. US 10-year yields around 3.79%, richer by 4bp vs Friday close; belly-led gains in Treasuries steepen 5s30s by 2bp on the day while 2s5s30s fly is richer by almost 3bp in early session. Bonds extended a rally as investors looked to hedge any downturn in stocks and the economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell five basis points to 3.77%. A busy week of dollar issuance is expected -syndicate desks are forecasting between $25 billion and $30 billion in new bond sales this week with banks leading the way coming out of earnings reports – and the resulting rate locks set to push TSY yields higher.
In commodities, crude futures declined with WTI falling 0.5% to trade near $75 as traders weighed disappointing Chinese economic data and restarting Libyan supplies against signs of a tightening market. Wheat futures jumped after Russia said it will not be extending the Ukraine grain deal.
While earnings season resumes in earnings tomorrow, today’s calendar only sees the Empire Manufacturing report for July (exp. -3.5%, last 6.6)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.1% changed at 4,531
MXAP down 0.1% to 168.55
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 533.68
Nikkei little changed at 32,391.26
Topix down 0.2% to 2,239.10
Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 19,413.78
Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,209.63
Sensex up 0.5% to 66,420.12
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,298.51
Kospi down 0.4% to 2,619.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 459.59
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.48%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.1240
Brent Futures down 1.6% to $78.60/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,956.44
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 99.83
Top Overnight News
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US should look for ways to further “de-escalate” tensions with China, though it would be premature to eliminate the tariffs imposed on it by the Trump administration. BBG
China’s economic data is mixed, with a miss on Q2 GDP (+6.3% Y/Y vs. the Street’s +7.1% forecast) and June retail sales (+3.1% vs. the Street +3.3% and down from +12.7% in May) while property investment fell further, but industrial production for June exceeded expectations (+4.4% vs. the Street +2.5% and up from +3.5% in May). BBG
China’s medium-term lending facility is smaller than anticipated with a modest net liquidity injection of only CNY3B as the gov’t remains relatively stringy with stimulus despite fading growth momentum. BBG
Oil markets are (finally) showing signs of tightening as OPEC+ supply cuts begin to take effect while demand continues to gradually recover (especially in China). BBG
Critical Russian artery to Crimea disabled in a presumed Ukraine strike as Kyiv looks to isolate the peninsula and impede Moscow’s ability to supply its frontlines. WSJ
Wall Street is more convinced than ever that inflation is subsiding. That’s giving investors hope that the Federal Reserve might be able to pull off what once seemed impossible: containing pricing pressures without tipping the economy into recession. WSJ
BlackRock predicted a surge of investment into bond funds once the US Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates as the money manager beat earnings expectations and reported assets under management had recovered to $9.4tn. “There is finally income to be earned in the fixed income market and we are expecting a resurgence in demand,” said Rob Kapito, president.* “There are trillions . . . that are ready, when people feel rates have peaked, to flood the market and we need to position ourselves to capture that.” FT
DeSantis was forced to shed some workers from his campaign as he struggles to gain traction while facing fundraising and spending challenges. NYT
United Airlines and its pilots’ union reached in principle a new labor agreement that is the richest ever at a US carrier, ending more than four years of negotiations. The agreement will result in about $10 billion in value over the life of the contract, the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement Saturday. The deal will provide pilots a pay raise of 13.8% to 18.7% upon signing and amount to a cumulative increase of as much as 40.2% over the life of agreement, according to the union. BBG
On July 24, the Nasdaq-100 will undergo its second ever “Special Rebalance” to address the index’s high level of concentration among a handful of stocks. The weight of the largest 7 stocks in the index will be reduced by 12 pp (56% to 44%). AAPL and MSFT will remain the largest constituents but their index weights will be reduced by roughly 4 pp to 12% and 10%, respectively. AVGO’s index weight will increase the most (+0.6 pp to 3%). $261 billion in mutual fund and ETF AUM is benchmarked to the NDX while hedge funds have an estimated $20 billion of net short exposure. Passive funds that track NDX will rebalance their portfolios but the 2011 special rebalance experience suggests the stock-level impact will be limited. GIR
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks began the week subdued as participants digested mixed economic growth and activity data from China with conditions also thinned due to the holiday closure in Japan and typhoon disruption in Hong Kong. ASX 200 was rangebound with gains in healthcare and tech counterbalanced by losses in consumer and commodity-related industries, while Australian Treasurer Chalmers provided a glum outlook in which he expects a substantial economic slowdown and unemployment to increase as inflation eases. KOSPI was constrained by a sombre mood after the deadly floods in South Korea and lingering US concerns that North Korea will move forward with another intercontinental ballistic missile test. Shanghai Comp underperformed in the absence of Stock Connect flows owing to the unscheduled closure in Hong Kong and as participants reflected on the mixed bag of tier-1 releases from China which showed economic growth was firmer than expected QQ but disappointed on the YY reading, while Chinese Industrial Production topped estimates in June and Retail Sales missed. Furthermore, the data was seen to be distorted by the effects of the lockdowns in China last year and attention was also on the PBoC which maintained its 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.65%, as expected. TSMC (2330 TT) may reportedly cut FY23 guidance to a decline of 10% Y/Y from a previous low-to-mid-single digit decline Y/Y, citing weaker than expected demand for traditional servers, high chip inventories and slow demand for non-Apple (AAPL) smartphones, via money.udn.
Top Asian News
PBoC conducted CNY 103bln (CNY 100bln maturing) in 1-year MLF with the rate kept unchanged at 2.65%.
China’s stats bureau said the national economy showed good momentum of recovery in H1 but reiterated that the foundation of the domestic economic recovery is not solid, while it stated that China is confident and capable to achieve economic growth targets.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen commented at the G20 meeting that her Beijing visit put the US-China relationship on a super footing and is eager to mobilise further action on areas of mutual concern. Yellen said tariffs on China were put in place as there were concerns about unfair trade practices and those concerns remain, while she added that China’s slowdown is significant to the global economy and seems in part a reflection of a consumption slowdown. Furthermore, Yellen said US corporates want to see an environment where they can invest and thrive in China, according to Reuters.
US Senate Majority leader Schumer said Democrats will amend the defence policy bill to impose sanctions on China and declare a national emergency over fentanyl, while he hopes the China amendment will pass with strong bipartisan support, according to Reuters.
US climate envoy Kerry arrived in China and commented that it is imperative the US and China make real progress in the little more than 4 months left before COP28.
New Zealand PM Hipkins said the region is becoming more contested, less predictable and less secure, while he added that China’s rise and how it seeks to exert influence is a major driver of the increasing strategic competition. Furthermore, he stated the relationship with China will continue to require careful management and that New Zealand is stepping up engagement with India as it expands its role and interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Australian Treasurer Chalmers said he expects a substantial economic slowdown and unemployment to increase as inflation eases, according to Bloomberg.
China’s State Planner Chairman met with Cos in the steel smelting, electronic devices and modern logistics sector; adding, efforts will be made to optimise the development of the private economy.
European bourses are pressured following the soft APAC handover given mixed China data and subsequent growth forecast downgrades by various desks, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.20%. The FTSE 100 and Energy names saw a bid on a since withdrawn Saudi report, with the complex reverting back to the initial downside following overnight data and the resumption of Libyan activity. Consumer discretionary names lag after Richemont’s update with a particular focus on the demand impulses from US and China. Stateside, futures are little changed but with a slight negative bias given the above, ES -0.1%. The US session is a light one but earnings ramp up again on Tuesday, in the pre-market today the main updates have related to MSFT/ATVI.
Top European News
German economy may disappoint as sentiment worsens; GDP recovery may be weaker in remainder of 2023 than implied June forecasts; inflation may fall further in coming months, core to stay higher over summer, according to Bundesbank cited by Reuters.
UK PM Sunak is to appoint a new Defence Secretary after Ben Wallace said he will leave the cabinet at the next reshuffle and will not stand as an MP in the next election, according to FT.
UK signed a treaty to join the CPTPP Indo-Pacific trade deal but sees chances of reaching a free trade agreement with the US as very low, according to Bloomberg citing Business Secretary Badenoch.
UK consumer group Which? called for government action on grocery prices and noted that supermarket prices have increased 25.8% in two years, while it noted that some prices have jumped by as much as 175%, according to Reuters.
Spanish PM Sanchez says there is a window of opportunity to conclude EU-Mercosur deal in H2’23; we expect trade deals with Mexico and Chile to be ratified in H223. Follows on from, Brazilian President Lula says hopes to finish EU-Mercosur agreement this year, it will “open new horizons”. Reminder, Spanish elections take place on July 23rd and currently Sanchez is lagging behind People’s Party leader Feijoo.
FX
DXY hits resistance at 100.000 again and drifts down towards 99.750.
Franc bounces off a shorter IMM spec base as USD/CHF eyes 0.8575 from 0.8625 at one stage.
Yen rebounds towards 138.00 axis amidst softer Treasury yields and Euro forms firmer foothold above 1.1200.
Kiwi and Aussie underperform within 0.6368-32 and 0.6849-05 ranges vs Buck as NZ performance of services index slips and the Australian Treasury sees substantial economic slowdown.
Yuan weakens after mixed Chinese data as PBoC sets fix closer to spot and banks cut 2023 GDP forecasts.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1326 vs exp. 7.1386 (prev. 7.1318)
Fixed Income
Bonds volatile after a relatively muted start as early Gilt weakness waned and prices picked up markedly on a mix of risk, technical and oil-related factors.
Bunds, Gilts and T-note are now nearer the top of wider 133.41-132.60, 95.39-94.58 and 112-29+/14 respective ranges awaiting more ECB speakers and Empire State survey.
Commodities
Marked two-way crude action with initial pressure on Libya’s resumption and Chinese data was eroded by a since withdrawn update to Saudi’s production, an update which lifted WTI and Brent to session highs. The subsequent withdrawal of the headline has seen the benchmarks return back to their overnight lows.
Spot gold is contained as the US risk tone remains tentative and the USD struggles for clear direction; base metals are particularly hampered on the updates to and from China on the growth front.
Libya’s El Sharara oil field and the El Feel oil field resumed production, according to Reuters.
Kuwait plans to raise oil output from 2.7mln bpd to 3.15mln bpd within four years, according to Reuters.
Saudi’s Energy Minister said they will continue to guarantee oil supply to Japan and maintain the position as the reliable partner, while he added that Saudi is Japan’s largest oil exporter fulfilling 40% of its total needs and will continue cooperating with Japan in clean hydrogen and recycled carbon fuels, according to state TV.
Japan is to ensure private sector loans for LNG procurement with Nippon Export & Investment Insurance to receive premiums from private lenders in turn for policies that will cover more than 90% of the loaned amount, with NEXI is to insure a loan by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (8318 JT) to a unit of LNG importer JERA, according to Nikkei.
Turkey raised the special consumption tax on oil and gasoline with taxes on petrol increased by about 200%, according to Official Gazette and FT.
Geopolitics
Russian President Putin said Russia reserves the right to mirror actions in the event that cluster munitions are used against Russia and that they have a sufficient stockpile of them, while he also stated that Ukraine’s attempts to break through Russian defences have failed, according to IFX and Reuters.
Russian-backed Governor of Crimea said Russian air defences and fleet engaged in repelling Ukraine’s drone attacks on Crimea, while the Russian Defence Ministry said it stopped Ukraine’s “terrorist attack” on Crimea’s Sevastopol, according to RIA. It was also reported that the Russian-backed Governor said traffic was stopped on the Crimean bridge due to an “emergency”, while Ukrainian media reports explosions were heard on the Crimean bridge to Russia.
Russia moved to ban Apple (AAPL) iPhones for government officials after claiming they were hacked by the US, according to SCMP. It was also reported that Moscow seized the Russian subsidiaries of Danone (BN FP) and Carlsberg’s (CARLB DC) Baltika, according to FT.
UN sources said the Black Sea grain deal has not been extended yet but everything is possible, according to TASS.
China and Russia will start joint air and sea drills in the Sea of Japan, according to Reuters.
Japan is reportedly being pressed by the US to consider a military role in a Taiwan conflict, according to WSJ.
White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said the administration remains concerned North Korea will move forward with another intercontinental ballistic missile test, according to Reuters.
N. Korea says the US’ offer of discussions is just a ploy, via KCNA. Follows the US offering to engage in talks without preconditions around the nuclear programme, according to Secretary of State Sullivan.
US Event Calendar
08:30: July Empire Manufacturing, est. -3.5, prior 6.6
Central Banks
Fed enters blackout period ahead of July FOMC
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s fair to say that if there was a soft-landing ETF it would have soared last week after soft Manheim auto prices, soft US CPI and PPI, and weekly jobless claims that are edging back down after a recent move higher. It would be crazy to deny the good news however it’s worth highlighting that it’s still very early in the Fed hiking cycle for a recession to occur and quite early in the yield curve window. There is plenty of time for the usual lags to work before you would say that this cycle is acting massively different to what you would expect given the tightening of policy. This time could indeed be different but it’s far too early to say that with any confidence. Until there is something to dispute the soft-landing narrative though, it will undoubtedly be in the ascendancy.
In a week ahead where the Fed are on their pre-FOMC blackout period, US Retail sales (tomorrow), US housing starts (Wednesday) and US existing home sales (Thursday) are the main data highlights stateside. Housing starts unexpectedly spiked last month so there will be a lot of attention on this. Soft-landing proponents will suggest that it’s hard for there to be a hard landing if housing is recovering.
As US earnings season gathers momentum the standouts are Tesla, Netflix, ASML and IBM on Wednesday and TSMC (Thursday) in tech. Financials reporting including BofA, Morgan Stanley (both tomorrow), and Goldman Sachs (Wednesday), with around 60 of the S&P 500 reporting over the week. It was interesting that the big US banks to report on Friday gave back notable opening gains after strong headline results. As we showed in our CoTD on Friday (link here), earnings season sees a disproportionate amount of the annual return in the S&P so you would expect the next few weeks to have upward momentum all things being equal. However the potential headwinds are the strong rally leading up to it and also the fact that our equity strategist’s positioning measures moved to 18-month highs last week (77th percentile). See their latest report on this from Friday night here.
Elsewhere UK inflation on Wednesday has the potential to be a global bond mover given recent prints. A relatively quiet week in Europe sees PPI in Germany on Thursday, with Eurozone consumer confidence and business confidence in France also due. The retail sales data in France will round up the week on Friday.
In Asia, after today’s important China numbers that we review below, the next stop is the country’s loan fixings on Thursday as we wait to see what stimulus might be on offer in the weeks ahead. Over in Japan, the main highlight next week will be the June nationwide CPI report due Friday.
Talking of Asia, China’s monthly data dump has been released this morning. GDP expanded +6.3% in Q2 from a year ago, falling short of +7.3% expectations (v/s +4.5% growth in Q1) as internal as well as the external demand remained tepid. For the June quarter alone, growth slowed to +0.8% (exceeding expectations of a +0.5% expansion) as against a +2.2% expansion in the March quarter. Additionally, retail sales grew +3.1% y/y in June (v/s +3.3% expected) compared with May’s +12.7% surge, highlighting that the post-COVID momentum is faltering rapidly in the world’s second biggest economy. Other data showed that industrial output grew +4.4% y/y in June (v/s +2.5% expected) up from the +3.5% growth in May. So a bit of a mixed bag but certainly soft enough for the stimulus cries to get louder as we approach the Politburo meeting at the end of the month.
Asian equity markets are fairly subdued this morning partially due to a Japanese holiday and not helped by a severe typhoon warning halting morning trading in Hong Kong. Mainland China stocks are leading losses with the CSI (-1.09%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.19%) both trading lower while the KOSPI (-0.49%) is also down as I type. Outside of Asia, S&P 500 (-0.10%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.12%) futures are edging lower ahead of the start of a busy week for corporate earnings.
Looking back on last week, the risk asset party finally lost some steam on Friday as the S&P 500 was down marginally (-0.10%) after four daily gains with the rates rally seeing a sizeable reversal (US 10yr +6.8bp), though these moves only partially offset the week’s strong cross-asset rally.
On Friday, we had the release of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for July. US consumer sentiment soared to a two-year high, surprising significantly to the upside at 72.6 (vs 65.5 expected). During June and July, consumer sentiment saw the largest 2-month rise since 2005, which comes as inflation continues to ease, and the labour market remains robust in the face of Fed rate hikes. However, 1-year inflation expectations rose one tenth from June to 3.4% (vs 3.1% expected) and 5-to-10-year inflation expectations also ticked higher, up a tenth to 3.1% (vs 3.0% expected), although the latter often gets revised in the final number.
Following the data, markets partially reversed the downward revision of Fed rate expectations that occurred earlier last week following Wednesday’s CPI report. For example, the terminal rate priced in for November’s meeting gained +3.5bps on Friday off the back of the survey data but was down -2.6bps on the week at 5.40%. And the rate expected for December 2024 climbed a strong +20.3bps on Friday, in weekly terms it fell -16.6bps to 3.93%.
The bounce in Fed rate expectations saw US Treasuries reverse course on Friday, as 10yr yields gained +6.8bps to 3.83%, but this retraced only a fraction of the drop in yields that followed Wednesday’s CPI report, with 10yr yields down -23.4bps week-on-week, the largest weekly drop since the SVB crisis in mid-March. The Fed repricing saw the 2yr yield posting a larger rise of +13.5bps to 4.77% (-17.8bps in weekly terms). The short-end sell off on Friday was driven by real rates (+15.1bp for 2yr), while breakevens showed a continued decline of near-term inflation expectations. The 2yr breakeven was down -14.6bp on the week to 1.91%, its lowest since late 2020. In contrast, the 5y5y US breakeven was marginally on the week at 2.17%. Over in Europe, the Friday rates sell off was more moderate, as 10yr bund yields climbed +3.2bps, but fell back -12.5bps week-on-week. The Euro gained +2.38% on the week (flatish on Friday) as Fed rate expectations pivoted.
In US equity markets, both the S&P 500 (-0.10%) and the NASDAQ (-0.18%) saw slight declines on Friday despite initially opening higher again, though they were still up +2.42% and +3.32% respectively in weekly terms. Within the S&P 500, energy was the main underperformer on Friday (-2.75%), while healthcare outperformed (+1.50%). In the tech megacap space, the FANG+ index fell by -0.33% on Friday, despite at one point in the morning trading +1.7% above its all-time closing highs seen on Thursday. Still, it posted a solid +3.61% weekly gain. Across the Atlantic, the STOXX 600 gained +2.94% week-on-week, its largest weekly increase since the last week of March, but traded modestly lower on Friday, falling -0.11%.
Turning to commodities, WTI crude fell -1.91% on Friday to $75.42/bbl, breaking its three-day rally, but ended the week up +1.74% to its highest weekly close since the end of April. Brent crude likewise fell on Friday, down -1.83% to $79.87/bbl, ending the week up +1.78%. Base metals headed for their biggest weekly gain of the year amid the risk-on sentiment, with the Bloomberg Industrial Metals index gaining +4.68% week-on-week (and -0.14% on Friday). Aluminium stood out from the industrial metals pack, rallying +6.04% over the week, and copper closely followed, gaining +4.11%.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Downbeat risktone after China updates; Crude & USD softer, Fixed bid – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 05:57 AM
European risk tone is hampered by mixed China data and subsequent cuts to the nations FY23 growth view by various desks
Stateside, action is more contained with the docket relatively sparse ahead of Tuesday’s key earnings & with Fed blackout underway
Crude benchmarks have returned to APAC lows on China & resumption of Libyan production, intersected by marked upside on a since withdrawn alert
USD is pressured with havens outperforming though antipodeans are the marked underperformers after data and Treasury commentary
Fixed income has been volatile, benchmarks now at the top-end of parameters with yields lower across the curve
Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Speeches from ECB’s Elderson, US Treasury Secretary Yellen.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are pressured following the soft APAC handover given mixed China data and subsequent growth forecast downgrades by various desks, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.20%.
The FTSE 100 and Energy names saw a bid on a since withdrawn Saudi report, with the complex reverting back to the initial downside following overnight data and the resumption of Libyan activity.
Consumer discretionary names lag after Richemont’s update with a particular focus on the demand impulses from US and China.
Stateside, futures are little changed but with a slight negative bias given the above, ES -0.1%. The US session is a light one but earnings ramp up again on Tuesday, in the pre-market today the main updates have related to MSFT/ATVI.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
DXY hits resistance at 100.000 again and drifts down towards 99.750.
Franc bounces off a shorter IMM spec base as USD/CHF eyes 0.8575 from 0.8625 at one stage.
Yen rebounds towards 138.00 axis amidst softer Treasury yields and Euro forms firmer foothold above 1.1200.
Kiwi and Aussie underperform within 0.6368-32 and 0.6849-05 ranges vs Buck as NZ performance of services index slips and the Australian Treasury sees substantial economic slowdown.
Yuan weakens after mixed Chinese data as PBoC sets fix closer to spot and banks cut 2023 GDP forecasts.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1326 vs exp. 7.1386 (prev. 7.1318)
Click here for the notable option expiries, NY cut.
FIXED INCOME
Bonds volatile after a relatively muted start as early Gilt weakness waned and prices picked up markedly on a mix of risk, technical and oil-related factors.
Bunds, Gilts and T-note are now nearer the top of wider 133.41-132.60, 95.39-94.58 and 112-29+/14 respective ranges awaiting more ECB speakers and Empire State survey.
Marked two-way crude action with initial pressure on Libya’s resumption and Chinese data was eroded by a since withdrawn update to Saudi’s production, an update which lifted WTI and Brent to session highs. The subsequent withdrawal of the headline has seen the benchmarks return back to their overnight lows.
Spot gold is contained as the US risk tone remains tentative and the USD struggles for clear direction; base metals are particularly hampered on the updates to and from China on the growth front.
Libya’s El Sharara oil field and the El Feel oil field resumed production, according to Reuters.
Kuwait plans to raise oil output from 2.7mln bpd to 3.15mln bpd within four years, according to Reuters.
Saudi’s Energy Minister said they will continue to guarantee oil supply to Japan and maintain the position as the reliable partner, while he added that Saudi is Japan’s largest oil exporter fulfilling 40% of its total needs and will continue cooperating with Japan in clean hydrogen and recycled carbon fuels, according to state TV.
Japan is to ensure private sector loans for LNG procurement with Nippon Export & Investment Insurance to receive premiums from private lenders in turn for policies that will cover more than 90% of the loaned amount, with NEXI is to insure a loan by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (8318 JT) to a unit of LNG importer JERA, according to Nikkei.
Turkey raised the special consumption tax on oil and gasoline with taxes on petrol increased by about 200%, according to Official Gazette and FT.
Reuters has withdrawn the Saudi Arabia headline at 10:05BST re. an oil output extension; Reuters clarifies the headline was a repeat of news published on June 4th. For reference, the headline was that Saudi Arabia is to extend its voluntary cut until the end of December 2024, via Reuters citing the Energy Ministry – HEADLINE HAS SINCE BEEN WITHDRAWN BY REUTERS.
Taiwan’s VP/Ruling Party Candidate Lai Ching-teh is to visit the US in August as part of a S. American trip, a trip which will not contain high-profile engagements/locations that could provide prextex for a reaction from Beijing, via FT citing sources.
UK Rightmove House Price Index MM (Jul) -0.2% (Prev. 0.0%); YY (Jul) 0.5% (Prev. 1.1%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
German economy may disappoint as sentiment worsens; GDP recovery may be weaker in remainder of 2023 than implied June forecasts; inflation may fall further in coming months, core to stay higher over summer, according to Bundesbank cited by Reuters.
UK PM Sunak is to appoint a new Defence Secretary after Ben Wallace said he will leave the cabinet at the next reshuffle and will not stand as an MP in the next election, according to FT.
UK signed a treaty to join the CPTPP Indo-Pacific trade deal but sees chances of reaching a free trade agreement with the US as very low, according to Bloomberg citing Business Secretary Badenoch.
UK consumer group Which? called for government action on grocery prices and noted that supermarket prices have increased 25.8% in two years, while it noted that some prices have jumped by as much as 175%, according to Reuters.
Spanish PM Sanchez says there is a window of opportunity to conclude EU-Mercosur deal in H2’23; we expect trade deals with Mexico and Chile to be ratified in H223. Follows on from, Brazilian President Lula says hopes to finish EU-Mercosur agreement this year, it will “open new horizons”. Reminder, Spanish elections take place on July 23rd and currently Sanchez is lagging behind People’s Party leader Feijoo.
CRYPTO
National Australia Bank announced new customer protections by blocking some payments made to high-risk cryptocurrency exchanges, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICS
Russian President Putin said Russia reserves the right to mirror actions in the event that cluster munitions are used against Russia and that they have a sufficient stockpile of them, while he also stated that Ukraine’s attempts to break through Russian defences have failed, according to IFX and Reuters.
Russian-backed Governor of Crimea said Russian air defences and fleet engaged in repelling Ukraine’s drone attacks on Crimea, while the Russian Defence Ministry said it stopped Ukraine’s “terrorist attack” on Crimea’s Sevastopol, according to RIA. It was also reported that the Russian-backed Governor said traffic was stopped on the Crimean bridge due to an “emergency”, while Ukrainian media reports explosions were heard on the Crimean bridge to Russia.
Russia moved to ban Apple (AAPL) iPhones for government officials after claiming they were hacked by the US, according to SCMP. It was also reported that Moscow seized the Russian subsidiaries of Danone (BN FP) and Carlsberg’s (CARLB DC) Baltika, according to FT.
UN sources said the Black Sea grain deal has not been extended yet but everything is possible, according to TASS.
China and Russia will start joint air and sea drills in the Sea of Japan, according to Reuters.
Japan is reportedly being pressed by the US to consider a military role in a Taiwan conflict, according to WSJ.
White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said the administration remains concerned North Korea will move forward with another intercontinental ballistic missile test, according to Reuters.
N. Korea says the US’ offer of discussions is just a ploy, via KCNA. Follows the US offering to engage in talks without preconditions around the nuclear programme, according to Secretary of State Sullivan.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks began the week subdued as participants digested mixed economic growth and activity data from China with conditions also thinned due to the holiday closure in Japan and typhoon disruption in Hong Kong.
ASX 200 was rangebound with gains in healthcare and tech counterbalanced by losses in consumer and commodity-related industries, while Australian Treasurer Chalmers provided a glum outlook in which he expects a substantial economic slowdown and unemployment to increase as inflation eases.
KOSPI was constrained by a sombre mood after the deadly floods in South Korea and lingering US concerns that North Korea will move forward with another intercontinental ballistic missile test.
Shanghai Comp underperformed in the absence of Stock Connect flows owing to the unscheduled closure in Hong Kong and as participants reflected on the mixed bag of tier-1 releases from China which showed economic growth was firmer than expected QQ but disappointed on the YY reading, while Chinese Industrial Production topped estimates in June and Retail Sales missed. Furthermore, the data was seen to be distorted by the effects of the lockdowns in China last year and attention was also on the PBoC which maintained its 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.65%, as expected.
TSMC (2330 TT) may reportedly cut FY23 guidance to a decline of 10% Y/Y from a previous low-to-mid-single digit decline Y/Y, citing weaker than expected demand for traditional servers, high chip inventories and slow demand for non-Apple (AAPL) smartphones, via money.udn.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC conducted CNY 103bln (CNY 100bln maturing) in 1-year MLF with the rate kept unchanged at 2.65%.
China’s stats bureau said the national economy showed good momentum of recovery in H1 but reiterated that the foundation of the domestic economic recovery is not solid, while it stated that China is confident and capable to achieve economic growth targets.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen commented at the G20 meeting that her Beijing visit put the US-China relationship on a super footing and is eager to mobilise further action on areas of mutual concern. Yellen said tariffs on China were put in place as there were concerns about unfair trade practices and those concerns remain, while she added that China’s slowdown is significant to the global economy and seems in part a reflection of a consumption slowdown. Furthermore, Yellen said US corporates want to see an environment where they can invest and thrive in China, according to Reuters.
US Senate Majority leader Schumer said Democrats will amend the defence policy bill to impose sanctions on China and declare a national emergency over fentanyl, while he hopes the China amendment will pass with strong bipartisan support, according to Reuters.
US climate envoy Kerry arrived in China and commented that it is imperative the US and China make real progress in the little more than 4 months left before COP28.
New Zealand PM Hipkins said the region is becoming more contested, less predictable and less secure, while he added that China’s rise and how it seeks to exert influence is a major driver of the increasing strategic competition. Furthermore, he stated the relationship with China will continue to require careful management and that New Zealand is stepping up engagement with India as it expands its role and interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Australian Treasurer Chalmers said he expects a substantial economic slowdown and unemployment to increase as inflation eases, according to Bloomberg.
China’s State Planner Chairman met with Cos in the steel smelting, electronic devices and modern logistics sector; adding, efforts will be made to optimise the development of the private economy.
DATA RECAP
Chinese GDP QQ SA (Q2) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 2.2%); YY (Q2) 6.3% vs. Exp. 7.3% (Prev. 4.5%)
Chinese Industrial Production YY (Jun) 4.4% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 3.5%); Retail Sales YY (Jun) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 12.7%)
Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Jun) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 4.0%)
Chinese House Prices YY (Jun) 0.0% (Prev. 0.1%)
CHINA GDP FORECAST ALTERATIONS
JP Morgan, Citi and SocGen cut China’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% (Prev. 5.5%); Morgan Stanley cuts the view to 5.0% (prev. 5.7%)
Morgan Stanley added the cut is due to weak Q2 growth and delayed stimulus.
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.07 PTS OR 0.87% //Hang Seng CLOSED /The Nikkei CLOSED //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.07 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1666 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1715 /Oil DOWN TO 74,47 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78,86 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/CHINA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
this is not good for China as their youth unemployment just hit a new record high. Q2 GDP growth disappoints as well. China must be cognizant of a youth revolt
(zerohedge)
China’s Youth Unemployment Just Hit A New Record High As Q2 GDP Growth Disappoints
SUNDAY, JUL 16, 2023 – 10:29 PM
China’s economy lost momentum in the second quarter with GDP growing just 6.3%, well below the 7.1% expectation.
The statistics bureau’s press briefing begins with its spokesman, Fu Linghui, proudly proclaimed that China’s economy improved in the first half despite the grim and complex international environment.
However, bear in mind that the 6.3% YoY growth rate – already quite a bit less than economists estimated – is less impressive when you consider it compares to a quarter in 2022 when Shanghai was under lockdown and other cities faced severe Covid-related restrictions.
The rest of the major macro data was more mixed (though with a downside bias):
China June Industrial Output Rises 4.4% Y/Y; Est. 2.5% – BEAT (and improved from prior month)
China June Retail Sales Rise 3.1% Y/Y; Est. 3.3% – MISS (and slowed from prior month)
China Jan.-June Fixed Investment Rises 3.8% Y/Y; Est. 3.4% – BEAT (but slowed significantly)
China End-June Surveyed Jobless Rate Stands at 5.2% (flat from prior month)
The growth of China’s home sales slowed, while property investment and new construction fell deeper, official data showed.
Home sales by value rose 3.7% from a year earlier in the first half of the year, slowing from an 11.9% increase in January to May, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday.
Property investment fell 7.9% in the first half, compared with a 7.2% decline in the first five months.
New construction starts dropped 24.3% in the first six months, compared with a 22.6% fall in January to May.
With China’s extreme Zero-COVID policies now in the distant past, the difficulties facing the world’s second-largest economy will further increase global growth fears and lead to increasing calls for Beijing to do more to shore up confidence (i.e. unleash broader stimulus measures).
Ho Woei Chen, economist at United Overseas Bank says the GDP is “a big disappointment”:
“But June data is still mixed. The industrial production was better than expected and picked up from May. The weak domestic demand will be of great concern and this will be the target for its monetary and fiscal stimulus.”
Finally, and in fact probably even more critical than the actual GDP print, China’s youth unemployment rate rose to another new record high of 21.3% in June (dramatically worse than the 5.2% nationwide surveyed jobless rate)…
Source: Bloombrg
Of course, China does have a simple solution for this record youth unemployment… “it is becoming increasingly uncomfortable that the world’s concerns of a coming war in Taiwan are intensifying at the very same time that China’s youth unemployment is surging.”
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK/USA
This is extremely important: The Bank of England warns of financial stability risks because of an imbalance of huge bets on the shorting of treasuries. Huge number of investors are betting that interest rates must rise (price of bonds falling) and the huge imbalance is creating “plumbing” problems.
(zerohedge)
‘Ghost Of Crisis Past’ Re-Appears: Bank Of England Warns Of “Financial Stability Risks” From Treasury Basis Trades
SATURDAY, JUL 15, 2023 – 09:55 AM
“…there remain vulnerabilities in the system of MBF [market-based finance], which could crystallise in the context of the current interest rate volatility…and pose risks to financial stability.“
Those are the somewhat ominous words from a recent Bank of England report, that highlighted one of the bigger vulnerabilities of the global financial system being a US hedge fund trade that is staging a comeback after nearly blowing up the Treasuries market in 2020.
The report comes two months after we highlighted the fact that the familiar systemic crisis ghost has made a surprise re-appearance: the trade that led to the repo crisis in Sept 2019 and also brutally exacerbated the crisis of March 2020 when for several days the Treasury market had zero liquidity, is back and is looking to blow up a whole new generation of clueless rates traders.
That’s right: the Treasury cash-futures basis trade, which as we profiled in detail in March 2020, led to record losses among the pair-trading hedge fund community, and prompted the Fed to inject trillions in liquidity into the market to avoid a catastrophic collapse (and where the covid pandemic and crash conveniently served as a perfect “just in time” decoy to allow Powell to do just that), has returned according to BBG’s Garfield Reynolds who notes that “the recent surge in leveraged positions betting that Treasury futures will fall … smacks of so-called basis trading.“
The trade, a variant of which first claimed LTCM and its roster of Nobel-prize winning idiots back in 1997, earns tiny nominal returns (when all goes according to plan) so funds use cash borrowed from the repurchase agreement market to leverage up positions and juice their wagers. The problem is that when not everything goes according to plan, the blows up are absolutely epic since this is the same strategy that led to career-ending losses on investors in March 2020, drying up liquidity not just in Treasuries but also in other money markets key to the smooth functioning of the financial system.
Similar to mid-2019 and early 2020, the current environment favors buying the cash bonds and selling futures against them, thanks to strong asset-manager demand for the derivatives and an increased public supply of Treasury securities as the Federal Reserve sheds its holdings.
The problem is that such basis trading distorts how speculators respond to economic data, making it harder for other investors to read signals from the bond market as a guide to the US outlook.
And this week, the BoE added its voice to the growing concerns over the potential exposure to this trade, saying the risks associated with these trades have mostly not been tackled by regulators.
“Vulnerabilities remain in the system of MBF. For instance, over recent months, leveraged hedge funds have built up large positions in US Treasury futures, which market intelligence suggests are relative to bonds or swaps. If these markets were to move sharply, deleveraging these positions could further amplify stress.
These risks, and other underlying vulnerabilities in the system of MBF identified by the FPC and financial stability authorities globally, remain largely unaddressed and could resurface rapidly.“
In other words, the massive short-positioning in futures is not simply traders betting that bond prices fall, it is dominated by ‘arbs’ holding long cash bond positions against the short futures – in the hopes of hoovering up those pennies in front of the liquidity steamroller.
The last time this shitshow exploded – in March 2020 – The Fed was forced to step in to prevent the doom loop, and, as The FT reports, since then there have been lots (OFR) and lots (BIS) and lots (FSB) and lots (IMF) and lots (Pimco) and lots (NY Fed) of postmortems.
“There was a point in time when we were wondering if the bond market would really ever function again,” says Nick Maroutsos, co-head of global bonds at Janus Henderson, an investment group.
“If it continued for a couple of weeks, we were thinking we were looking at doomsday.”
It’s not just the Bank of England, since as we reported in May, officials in the US at the SEC and The Fed have questioned prime brokers about the basis trade.
“Further action is needed by international and domestic regulators to increase the resilience of market-based finance,” the BOE said.
“Given the underlying risks remain significant and could resurface, completing this policy work and implementing it across jurisdictions is urgent.”
As shown below, a Bloomberg index of Treasury-market illiquidity has been hovering near levels last seen at the peak of the pandemic for the better part of the past year. This means that a sudden spasm in the basis trade would lead to catastrophic results at a far faster pace.
Source: Bloomberg
While this topic tends to go right over most people’s heads, the bottom line is simple enough: wrong-way bets on Treasury futures – inspired by a record pile up in a popular if deadly basis trade – are near the highest they’ve ever been (open interest in the pivotal five-year futures is at a record), while liquidity has almost never been worse.
“In particular, the recent sharp transition to higher interest rates and currently high volatility increases the chance that vulnerabilities in [the market] could crystallise and pose risks to financial stability.”
In other words, the Bank of England has a point – brace!!
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Early this morning, the Crimean bridge was bombed (and traffic halted)
(zerohedge)
Crimean Bridge Traffic Halted Due To “Emergency”, Explosions Reported
The head of the Crimea Sergey Aksyonov made the statement on his Telegram channel, but did not specify the nature of the incident:
“Traffic was stopped on the Krymsky Bridge: an emergency occurred in the area of the 145th support from the Krasnodar Territory. Law enforcement agencies and all responsible services are working. I spoke with the Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation Vitaly Gennadyevich Savelyev, measures are being taken to restore the situation. We keep in touch with colleagues from Krasnodar Territory,” Aksenov wrote.
It was early in the morning and so there are few images available due to the darkness, but there are some video clips that reportedly of the scene:
Russia’s Grey Zone channel, a heavily followed Telegram channel affiliated with the Wagner mercenary group, reported that there were two strikes on the bridge at 03:04 a.m. and 03:20 a.m.
There has been no official comment from Ukraine or Russia as yet.
end
RUSSIA
Russia terminates the Black Sea grain deal as wheat prices spike northbound. The extent of the Crimed Bridge terrorist attack is revealed.
(zerohedge)
Russia Terminates Black Sea Grain Deal, Wheat Prices Spike, As Extent Of Crimea Bridge Terrorist Attack Revealed
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 07:15 AM
Wheat prices jumped as much as 3.5% as news broke Monday that Russia let the UN-brokered grain deal lapse at midnight, Istanbul time, marking the end of the Turkey-administered humanitarian corridor which let Ukrainian grains get exported to global markets. Russia since confirmed the deal has been “terminated”.
What was formally called the Black Sea Grain Initiative had already been extended for multiple short increments since its implementation in July 2022. The Kremlin confirmed in a statement by Dmitry Peskov: “The Black Sea agreements ceased to be valid today. As the President of the Russian Federation said earlier, the deadline is July 17.”
“Unfortunately, the part relating to Russia in this Black Sea agreement has not been implemented so far. Therefore, its effect is terminated,” the presidential spokesman continued. Ultimately this will put much more pressure on Kiev, already in the midst of a failing counteroffensive, which is likely Russia’s strategic purpose in suspending the deal.
But Peskov suggested it could be reimplemented if Russia’s conditions for resumption are met, namely the country’s ability to export its own foodstuffs safely, after Moscow has long voiced its objections, which has included blaming the Ukrainians for placing naval mines in the Black Sea corridor.
“As soon as the Russian part is completed, the Russian side will return to the implementation of this deal immediately,” Peskov said. He further described the agreement as having “been de facto stopped” – again suggesting the possibility of a speedy resumption following negotiations that would address Russia’s concerns.
Currently there’s speculation that the fresh attack on the Crimean Bridge (also known as the Kerch Strait Bridge) was a last straw, but Moscow is downplaying the connection. The Washington Post writes Monday morning:
Ukraine’s military and security services were responsible for the attack on a key bridge that connects the Crimeanpeninsula to the Russian region of Krasnodar, a Ukrainian official said Monday. Ukraine used sea surface drones to attack the bridge — an important supply artery for Russia’s war in Ukraine — the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of military operations. On Monday, the Kremlin said the grain deal, which allowed Ukrainian grain to be shipped from Black Sea ports despite wartime hostilities, is “being terminated” until Russia’s demands are met.
However, Peskov noted that Russia’s willingness to pull out of the grain deal initiative was communicated prior to the attack, which reportedly killed two civilians and suspended bridge traffic. Russia has denounced the “terrorist attack”.
The White House reaction has been to say that Moscow has been using the grain deal as “a weapon” – as stated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Putin for his part has complained that food exports have not been going to countries which are most in need, in Africa and the Middle East, but instead to Kiev’s preferred Western partners in Europe who are busy supplying battlefield arms.
China reacted later in the day Monday…
Moscow stated the two killed in the overnight Crimea Bridge attack involved a Russian family traveling on vacation whose vehicle was destroyed. A statement further alleged assistance to Ukrainian forces by the US and UK.
“This regime [the Ukrainian government] is terrorist and has all the hallmarks of an international organized crime group,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a written statement. “Ukrainian officials and military personnel take those decisions with direct input from American and British special services and politicians. The US and Britain are managing a state-like terrorist structure,” it said.
end
BELARUS/RUSSIA//WAGNER
Wagner group is now involved in training Belarusian troops. Russia is withdrawing almost all of its forces from Belarus
(zerohedge)
Wagner Training Belarusian Troops, Government Confirms, As Russia Withdraws Almost All Forces
SATURDAY, JUL 15, 2023 – 08:45 AM
That escalated quickly: following the Wagner mutiny events of June 23-24 which resulted in Yevgeny Prigozhin being briefly exiled to Belarus (though there are indicators he’s already back in Russia living as a free man), Wagner mercenaries have not only set up shop on Belarusian soil but are now training regular soldiers of the Belarusian army.
According to a Friday statement of the Belarusian defense ministry, Wagner fighters are giving formal instruction to soldiers at a base near Osipovichi, just over 50 miles south of the capital of Minsk.
“Wagner fighters acted as instructors in a number of military disciplines,” the ministry announced. It described, “The conscripts master the skills of moving on the battlefield and tactical shooting, gaining knowledge in engineering training and tactical medicine.”
Sky Newsdetails of the training location based on regional sources that “The town is home to an empty camp that mutinous Russian mercenaries have yet to use and perhaps even a storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons Russia says it has deployed in Belarus.”
A mediation effort by President Alexander Lukashenko had ended the short-lived uprising last month, which resulted in the deaths of at least 15 Russian troops and pilots, according to subsequent Kremlin statements.
The deal for Wagner to lay down its arms and turn back its “march on Moscow” saw Prigozhin fly on his private jet to Minsk within days after. It has since been revealed that a private hours-long meeting between Putin and the Wagner boss took place within the week following the events that shocked Russia and the world.
But last week, Lukashenko told reporters: “As for Yevgeny Prigozhin, he is in St. Petersburg. Maybe he went to Moscow, but he is not on Belarusian soil,”according to the Russian news agency TASS. Putin had offered Wagner mercenaries a general amnesty, saying they can either sign contracts with the regular armed forces, or go to Belarus.
Interestingly, on the very day that Belarus confirmed Wagner is training its forces, news has emerged of a major withdrawal of almost all regular Russian forces from Belarus:
Russia has withdrawn almost all its troops from Belarus, Ukraine’s state border guard service has said. Russian military have been using the territory primarily as a training ground for a lot of the war.
“Fortunately, the number of Russian soldiers in Belarusian training areas has been steadily decreasing,” the service’s spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said at a news briefing, according to Kyiv Independent.
“Until recently, we estimated their number to be up to 2,000 soldiers, but now another rotation has taken place and almost all Russian personnel has been withdrawn from the territory of Belarus.”
“Wagner’s ordinary members were fighting with dignity… so it is very regrettable that they became embroiled into these events,” Putin had added in the remarks.
It seems these withdrawing Russian troops were essentially replaced by Wagner units, which is unlikely to give Ukraine or other regional Western allies any comfort. Already, neighboring countries like Poland have bolstered their border defenses due to the Wagner presence in Belarus.
Video clips showing Wagner training Belarusian troops has emerged:
According to some fresh remarks by President Putin in the national outlet Kommersant:
Russian President Putin said new weapons supplies will further escalate the conflict in Ukraine and worsen the situation. It was separately reported that Putin also said he proposed to Wagner fighters at a meeting this month to continue serving in the military, while he added that Russia’s government and parliament must discuss the legal framework for private armies and said without a legal framework, ‘Wagner does not exist’, according to Kommersant.
Previously, Western media reports speculated that Wagner could be used to provide additional security at Belarusian bases which were playing host to Russian tactical nukes. While the nukes are being housed by Belarus, the Kremlin has said they are under full operational control of Russia’s defense ministry and its troops.
As for the fate of Wagner, it clearly has not at all been disbanded, and is still going strong serving contracts across Africa, for example. Likely Moscow will continue to use it as a ‘foreign arm’ – and it is likely still operational even in some front line locales in Ukraine.
end
RUSSIA// UKRAINE/USA/EUROPE
The Greatest History Never Told’
Robert Hryniak
8:51 AM (56 minutes ago)
to
In an insightful book, if you care to read it ( Nordangard’s book, “Rockefeller: Controlling the Game.”) … this article is a good summary of what is occurring today in absence of reading the book.
Another book while expensive is worth reading is called “The Plot to Seize Russia” the untold history by Armstrong which details what we see unfolding today. It is real time event by event recording that discloses attempts to control by fiat. Some of what you see in the narrative of climate change and like and electrics has nothing to do with such excuses but attempt to seize power and profit. Even Obama’s lifting of sanctions on Iran was to break any alliance with Russia. Why? Iran has the 2nd largest gas reserves behind Russia. Even Syria is nothing more than a proxy war against Russia just like Ukraine. When Nuland uttered her infamous words “Fuck the EU” in February of 2014 she not only meant it but the US was steaming ahead to fund Ukraine as a proxy to die in a attempt to destroy Russia as a superpower in the pointed slaughter of Ukrainians to weaken Russia. The error of judgement of Russian capability is evident in public display of destroyed equipment and dead bodies. Over reach is often a sign of desperation and not strength. Today, Taiwan is another proxy for a fight to destroy China. We see the same thing playbook today when Biden offers Erdogan 13 billion via the IMF as a foreign policy tool for expanding NATO in a proxy fight against Russia. Countries do not matter, agenda does. And today the US is under full Neocon control is oriented to wage war in a contest of hegemony control. Events and alliances are in plain view from the BRICS to the SCO or even upcoming BRICS meeting in August and possible announcements of new settlement currencies or other such Mechanisms are tactics of defiance. Internal western discourses of lies and public displayed agendas are sign of simple chaos ushered in by agenda triumph over principles in a attempt to exercise control to execute agenda. Even disclosures of governmental monetary problems in sovereign debt are a indication that the hourglass of time is running out. Future upheavals are predictable as is the rush to digitization of currencies to mask abuses of wasted spending. Throughout history mankind has been shepherded into actions desired for profit and gain. And each time the drunkenness of power coupled with greed has caused blindness to overlook human nature resulting in anarchy. Each time this occurs society is remade destroying old models and allowing development of new ones. This usually occurs when old models have lost value and no longer contribute.
Should it be not curious, that anarchy results in change of society to usher in horizons anew while hidden hands pull levers of change?
If wounded are twice the known dead are 26,000 accordingly to ground sources and with twice that are wounded ( 52,000) and over 5000 MIA what is left? This the 3rd version of s army slaughtered. No wonder young Ukrainians and old are afraid to be seen outside for fear of being sent to the combat lines. Where many soldiers find death within days if not hours. And an old senile man of questionable repute wants to sent in Americans to die along with NATO troops. Neocons are totally demented as they will lose much more than soldiers. And Zelensky has only been given to November to show results or have money cut back severely. The other day he met with his Generals and ordered attack no matter the losses as progress must be shown. This is course why this warped crowd tried to attack a Russian Nuclear power plant. Expect this desperation to be shown as Ukies will try every thing for their masters as they understand the party will end soon for them. And Ukrainian commanders buying $5MM clothing store chains in places like Spain will end. It simply is blood money made off death and pillage.
END
IRAN/USA…//RUSSIA
USA deploys F 16’s to protect ships from Iranian seizures
(zerohedge)
US Deploys F-16 Squadrons To Persian Gulf To ‘Protect Ships’ From Iranian Seizures
The US is deploying additional F-16 fighter jets to the Strait of Hormuz to “protect ships from Iranian seizures,” a senior Pentagon official told reporters on Friday, adding that Washington is “increasingly concerned” about burgeoning ties between Iran, Russia, and Syria.
The unnamed official told Pentagon reporters on condition of anonymity that the F-16s will provide air cover to cargo vessels moving through the strategic waterway and “increase the military’s visibility” of Iranian operations.
Iran last week attempted to seize two foreign-flagged fuel tankers in Gulf waters that were involved in fuel smuggling operations, and a third Tehran says was involved in a hit-and-run incident.
“On 6 July, Revolutionary Guards’ Navy personnel were inspecting a ship with the name NADA 2 that was involved in smuggling Iranian oil and gas in the Persian Gulf, which the US sought to prevent through a series of unprofessional and risky actions,” Ramazan Zirrahi, a commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy told Iranian media earlier this week.
“The Americans flew several aircraft, including two A-10 fighters, and tried until the last moment to prevent the seizure of the vessel, but it was eventually brought to Bushehr port for legal procedures,” Zirrahi added. He also revealed that the crew of the NADA 2 were instructed by US officials to “switch off the engine and wait for the American military forces to come for help.”
Besides deploying a new fighter jet squadron to the Gulf, the Pentagon official said Washington is “considering a number of military options to address increasing Russian aggression in the skies over Syria,” adding that the US occupation army “will not cede any territory”.
Over the past several months, Pentagon officials have bemoaned the Russian air force’s increased activity over US occupation bases and their “harassment” of US warplanes and drones.
The most recent incident occurred on Friday morning when a Russian aircraft flew over Washington’s Al-Tanf base in eastern Syria, where US forces train extremist groups to fight against the Syrian government. The Russian An-30 aircraft was reportedly collecting intelligence on the base.
France last week also accused Russia of conducting a “non-professional interaction” with two Rafale fighter jets flying near the Iraq-Syria border.
These events took place days after the Syrian and Russian armies launched the latest round of joint drills to “exercise control” over Syria’s airspace and examine “the effectiveness of Russian air defense means in the country.”
END
RUSSIA/IRAN/USA
Russia and Iran are now coordinating to expel uSA troops from oil rich areas in Syria
(the cradle)
Russia, Iran Coordinating To Expel US Troops From Syria, Pentagon Says
In a report released by Al-Monitor on Friday, a high-ranking US military official was quoted as saying that Russian and Iranian forces in Syria have been coordinating with the specific aim of forcing Washington’s troops to eventually withdraw from the country.
The official said that “he’s seen signs that Russian military commanders in Syria have been quietly coordinating with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on long-term plans to pressure the United States to withdraw its forces” from Syria, Al-Monitor wrote.
“There’s a confluence of interests between those three groups, the Iranians, the Russians, and the Syrians. I see evidence of operational-level planning between mid-level Quds Force leadership that’s operating in Syria [and] Russian forces that are operating in Syria,” the anonymous official told the outlet.
According to the official, the Russian-Iranian coordination in Syria centers around “collaborative planning, collaborative understanding, and intelligence sharing… [at the] mid-level to upper echelon” of Moscow and Tehran’s armies.
“Frankly, [it’s] the same sorts of things that we would do with our partners in the face of something we were trying to accomplish. We see them doing that on their side, as they try to think about how they sync the different things that different arms of them are doing in order to put that pressure on us,” the source added.
In recent months, Washington has continued to reinforce its occupation in Syria, particularly in the country’s oil-rich northeast. In occupied Hasakah, local sources told Syrian news agency SANA last week that large deliveries of US logistical equipment and cement recently made their way into the region.
Such reinforcements have been ongoing for months, particularly in the aftermath of the surge in Iranian-linked attacks against US bases in Syria this year. According to Al-Monitor, “Pentagon officials deny their forces’ actions in Syria have had anything to do with Russian and Iranian provocations,” adding that the US believes its recent responses “have arrested the escalation cycle for now.”
Over the past two years, attacks on US bases by Iran-linked groups in Syria have become commonplace. In early 2023 particularly, US military sites across Syria witnessed significantly increased levels of drone and missile attacks.
In March, one such strike resulted in the killing of a US military contractor at a base in Hasakah. In response, US forces bombed Deir Ezzor, killing several, including Syrian and, allegedly, Iranian military officers. Shortly after the US strikes, two more occupation bases were attacked. The attacks against Washington have “fallen silent” since the strikes on Deir Ezzor, Al-Monitor suggests.
US Army General Douglas Sims told reporters recently: “We don’t anticipate an issue, nor do we see a level of escalation we’re concerned about in Syria.” Nonetheless, the Al-Monitor report states US forces in Syria remain “vulnerable.”
Last month, a leaked Pentagon document revealed that Russia and Iran have agreed to establish a joint operations room in Syria to coordinate a pressure campaign against the US military.
On March 25, Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported that “there is undeclared Russian-Iranian coordination to escalate against the US presence in Syria, to pressure the US and force it to decide to withdraw from its bases in the north and east of the country.”
END
RUSSIA/USA/CLUSTER BOMBS
Russia will now reciprocate in using its own cluster bombs
(zerohedge)
US “Debasing” Itself In Sending Ukraine Cluster Bombs Out Of “Desperation”, Musk Points Out
SUNDAY, JUL 16, 2023 – 01:00 PM
In a Saturday comment on Twitter, Elon Musk said that the United States is “debasing” itself in sending internationally banned cluster munitions to Ukraine, which is an act done out of “desperation”.
He began by responding to a post by hawkish GOP Senator Tom Cotton—who advocates for sending more and more arms to Ukraine—following Biden having recently approved controversial cluster bombs. Musk wrote: “Sending more weapons will change the body count, but not the outcome.”
Musk is warning of a scenario of bloody escalation without end, in which Ukrainian civilians are likely to suffer most, but with no ultimate strategic gains by Ukrainian forces or even furthering Western aims. “Russia has at least 4 times the artillery of Ukraine and 10 times the ammunition,” Musk said, pointing out additional inconvenient truths as follows: “We have run out of normal ammunition to send Ukraine, so now send them cluster bombs in desperation, debasing ourselves with no change to the outcome.”
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin in a new interview published Sunday strongly suggested that there will indeed be significant escalation and that he’s ready to unleash Russia’s own cluster arsenal on the battlefield. He specifically addressed the United States injecting its cluster bombs into the Ukraine war on the side of Kiev.
Putin said it is a “crime” for which Russian forces will respond with “reciprocal action” as his country has a “sufficient stockpile” of cluster munitions.
“Until now, we have not done this, we have not used it, and we have not had such a need,” Putin claimed, despite the West having long charged Moscow with already having previously deployed the internationally banned weapon on the battlefield.
Neither the US, Russia, nor Ukraine has signed on to international treaties banning the use of cluster bombs, held by over 120 countries due to their being an ‘indiscriminate’ munition which more easily harms civilians.
“Russia has a sufficient stock of various types of cluster munitions… We have not needed to [use them], despite the well-known [munitions] deficit for a certain period of time,” Putin said. “The US administration itself gave an assessment of these munitions through the mouths of its employees some time ago… calling the use [of these munitions] a crime. This is how I think it should be regarded,” he asserted in the interview.
Indeed the Biden administration previously said cluster bombs in particular are indicative of potential war crimes…
International human rights and monitoring organizations have said that cluster munitions have been used by both sides of the conflict thus far.
Days ago, there were widespread reports that US cluster bomb supplies had already reached Ukrainian forces. The Pentagon has an abundance in its own stockpiles, which go back decades, as more conventional artillery supplies among the West has run low and fallen woefully short.
And now, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has offered a blunt assessment calling the war a “stalemate” – suggesting that he likely agrees with Musk’s conclusion, namely that “Sending more weapons will change the body count, but not the outcome.”
end
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
“Rare” vaccine injury becomes a National Health Emergency in highly-vaccinated Peru – NaturalNews.com
“Rare” vaccine injury becomes a National Health Emergency in highly-vaccinated Peru
A “rare” vaccine injury called Guillain Barré syndrome (GBS) has caught the attention of Peruvian health authorities. Peruvian President Dina Boluarte declared a 90-day national emergency after an “unusual increase” in GBS was detected in hospitals across Peru.
At least 18 of the country’s 24 departments have seen at least one case of GBS in June, which is unprecedented. Since June of 2023, 182 cases have been reported across Peru, of which 147 have been discharged, 31 remain hospitalized, and four have died.
Peruvian health authorities are taking alarming spike in GBS seriously
Boluarte’s latest decree sends $3.2 million to the hospitals to improve patient care and increase GBS detection and control measures. Though GBS is not contagious, Peruvian health authorities are moving quickly to acquire human plasma to manufacture intravenous immunoglobulin and human albumin to help treat GBS.
The government’s decree, published in the El Peruano (Official Gazette), warns of an “unusual increase” of a rare disease in a short period of time that threatens the nation’s health services. The rise in GBS “negatively affects the continuity of health services, as there are not enough strategic resources to respond to the volume and complexity of the cases in the different health facilities,” warned the decree.
GBS is a neurological disorder where the immune system attacks part of the peripheral nervous system. It often starts with tingling in the hands, feet, and face, before progressing to muscle weakness and paralysis across the body. In severe cases, GBS can leave one “unable to breathe independently.”
In GBS, immune cells do not function properly and mistakenly attack the myelin sheaths of the peripheral nerves. According to Medical News Today: “The damage prevents the nerves from sending certain information, such as touch sensations, to the spinal cord and brain. This causes a feeling of numbness. In addition, the brain and spinal cord can no longer transmit signals back to the body, leading to muscle weakness.”
GBS can cause lingering issues such as blood pressure fluctuations and irregular heart rhythms as well as sluggish bowel function and urine retention. About one third of patients will experience severe nerve pain. With the right treatment, most people will recover from GBS but they will likely have some form of reoccurring weakness in their muscles.
GBS is a well-known injury for many vaccine types
GBS may show up in individuals who have a compromised immune system after recovering from an infection. According to the Mayo Clinic, symptoms of GBS may appear weeks after an infection from the influenza virus, the cytomegalovirus, the Epstein-Barr virus, the Zika virus, or Hepatitis A, B, C and E.
GBS is also linked to several vaccines. The latest mRNA vaccines, including those made with an adenovirus (Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca) and those designed to protect against RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) have been flagged by regulators for causing an uptick in GBS. The J&J covid-19 vaccine was slapped with an FDA warning label in 2021, alerting consumers to the increased risk of developing GBS up to 42 days after vaccination.
Additionally, the US Food and Drug Administration noted that GBS is a possible risk from Pfizer’s new RSV vaccine for older adults. There were two cases of GBS out of 20,000 recipients who took the experimental jabs. The FDA now recommends that doctors monitor for GBS after a patient takes a Pfizer RSV shot. The long list of childhood vaccinations are also known to cause GBS in rare instances.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is aware of the deadly and debilitating vaccine-GBS risk and stated that “very rarely, people have developed GBS in the days or weeks after getting certain vaccines.” However, like every other serious health issue related to vaccination, the CDC claims that the “benefits of vaccination far outweigh risks.” Of course, this is not true for the vaccinated individuals who come down with GBS and aren’t treated in time or perish from this most serious vaccine injury. At least one nation — Peru — is now taking this issue seriously.
END
A welcome change: German MP vows to dismantle WHO’s grip on governments
(zerohedge)
“We Will Bring You Down”: German MP Vows To Dismantle WHO’s Grip On Governments
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 04:15 AM
German MP Christine Anderson last week shredded the World Health Organization, calling it a group of “globalitarian misanthropists” who she – and a group of seven other MPs, have vowed to dismantle in order to oppose the WHO supplanting democratically elected governments.
“An unelected body like who is controlled and run by multi-billionaires should never be allowed to act in place of a democratically elected government,” she said during the Citizen’s Initiative conference in Brussels.
Anderson says she’ll expose and name any individuals, including government officials and parliamentarians, who support the WHO ‘power grab’ and disrespect democracy.
“It is you [WHO] that is the small fringe minority,” she continued. “You are the ones who do not have the right to dictate to the people what they want and what they don’t want.”
“So take it from me … take it from the millions and millions of people around the world. We will bring you down, and we will not tire until we have done just that. So brace yourselves. We are here, and the fight is on. So let’s have the fight.”
end
GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES//
Our resident expert on global “plumbing” is now on his own. He now states what everybody else is saying that the global financial system is undergoing a monetary divorce from dollar hegemony.
a must read.
(zerohedge/Poszar)
Zoltan Poszar On The Global Financial System’s “Monetary Divorce” From Dollar Hegemony
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 05:45 AM
For the past decade, Zoltan Poszar has arguably been the world’s foremost expert in the ugly nuances and arcanery in world money-markets (and more recently, on how the financial and physical markets overlap on the geopolitical chessboard). However, amid all the chaos at Credit Suisse, the erstwhile expert on all things ‘pipes’ in the global funding markets has decided to go out on his own.
The name of his new firm is Ex Uno Plures, “and I will be providing research to institutional investors and consult institutional investors about the plumbing,” Poszar explains at the start of this discussion with Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast.
The former Credit Suisse man expounds on the concept of “Bretton Woods III” and the changing dynamics in the global economy, explaining that the traditional idea of a unipolar world dominated by the US dollar is shifting, and we are entering an era where multiple currencies will play a significant role. Simply put, he notes, the global financial system is going through a “monetary divorce” from US dollar hegemony and becoming more multi-polar.
“You know, these topics: de-dollarization, the re-monetization of gold, using central bank digital currencies to build out, to knit out a de novo financial system, you know, the petroyuan and the renminbi invoicing of commodities and traded goods going forward.”
Zoltan highlights the growing focus in the West on reducing dependence on Chinese supply chains and becoming more self-sufficient in key areas.
On the other hand, in the East, there is a focus on extracting themselves from the Western financial system and de-risking their relationship with the US dollar and Western financial institutions.
“If you go into a world where trade is not dominantly invoiced in dollars… it’s no longer a machinery where the dollars are getting created on the margin, the dollars are getting accumulated on the margin. And the question is how do you recycle the earned dollars back into funding and rates market?”
He mentions that there have been developments indicating a move away from the US dollar as the dominant currency, such as the renminbi (Chinese currency) being used for invoicing commodities and the increasing use of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
“We are starting to see evidence that more and more commodity trades are being settled in renminbi… you can have a lot of ground that renminbi could gain.”
Zoltan suggests that CBDCs could create a new network of correspondent central banks, facilitating direct settlement of international transactions between central banks rather than relying on correspondent banks.
By establishing this state-to-state and central bank-to-central bank network, independent of Western financial centers and the dollar, Zoltan believes it could provide an alternative to the current dollar-based system.
“The underlying issue here is very much one where if you look at this unipolar world… you should be imagining correspondent central banks.”
Regarding the role of CBDCs, Zoltan suggests that they can be a part of RMB internationalization. CBDCs can help raise offshore RMB and tap swap lines with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). He highlights the overlap between countries planning or piloting CBDCs and the network of swap lines with the PBOC. Zoltan notes that evidence shows an increasing number of commodity trades being settled in renminbi, and the share of renminbi in trade finance has been growing, indicating a potential gain in the currency’s importance in the coming years.
“Gold is definitely something that’s coming back as a theme… we are seeing this more and more in the data that especially the countries that are not geopolitically aligned to the US are shunning Treasuries and shunning the dollar and they are buying gold instead.”
He also emphasizes the need to rethink the role of central banks as dealers of last resort in the foreign exchange (FX) market, particularly for the global East and South, in the context of CBDCs and the correspondent central bank system.
Zoltan believes that the evolving dynamics of global trade and the emergence of multiple currency options for payment will have significant implications for dollar funding and rates markets. He mentions that if countries have the option to pay for commodities in different currencies such as dollars, renminbi, or gold, it could reshape the FX swap market and the demand for dollars. The accumulation of dollar reserves by countries, such as China, may also be affected if they can use their own currency for commodity imports, reducing the need for large dollar reserves.
“You can pay dollars for oil, but you can also pay renminbi for oil. But if you are a gold miner, you can also pay for oil with gold… You would just choose whichever one is cheaper.”
Shifting his focus from global to local, the money-market-mage mentions mentions that the solutions crafted by the Fed to address liquidity problems, such as the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), were powerful and surprising. He acknowledges that the BTFP program received mixed responses, with some seeing it as the right move within the framework of Basel III regulations, while others criticized it for potentially undermining the need for interest rate risk management in banks’ portfolios. Nevertheless, Zoltan believes that the BTFP is now a part of the system and will likely remain as a standard feature.
He highlights the importance of the BTFP in supporting the Treasury market by preventing banks from liquidating underwater bonds and potentially causing further strain in the market. The program provides a mechanism for banks to access liquidity without disrupting the market and serves as part of the scaffolding of the financial system.
He points out that while blanket deposit insurance may not be implemented, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) acts as a buffer between the troubled institution and the Federal Reserve, ensuring that the Fed’s lending is secured to its satisfaction.
Zoltan explains that the banking system will likely deal with problems on a case-by-case basis. While there may be challenges in credit portfolios and commercial real estate lending books, as well as potential consolidation across the banking system, there are levers that the Fed can pull to help resolve issues. He notes that interest on reserves provides banks with a steady stream of interest income, which can indirectly help pre-fill their capital base.
Zoltan also mentions the role of larger institutions like JPMorgan and the potential for banks like Wells Fargo, which still have unused balance sheet capacity, to assist in cleaning up issues if needed. He emphasizes that while there may be micro-dislocations and challenges in specific areas, the overall banking system is fine, and the key is to anticipate and position appropriately.
“I think the banking system is fine for now… There will be consolidation across the banking system. But there are many levers that the Fed pull to help clean things up.”
Regarding shadow banking, Poszar explains that if his thesis about world trade invoicing in currencies other than the dollar comes true, it could provide balance sheet relief for global systemically important banks (GSIBs). The shift of market making and FX functions to the balance sheets of central banks and the migration from correspondent banks to correspondent central banks would potentially benefit US banks, allowing them to use their balance sheets for other purposes.
“Regarding that shadow banking question… I think over time that’s going to provide balance sheet relief to all the GSIBs because FX market making, credit lines exclusively provided in US dollars… that’s the bread-and-butter domain of JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Citibank.”
He suggests that as the shadow banking system deals with credit and real estate problems, the banking system could become a source of strength, providing both capital and balance sheet capacity.
“It’s better to suffer those losses in non-banks than banks because banking crises are very nasty things.”
Zoltan concludes by noting that the concept of shadow banking has evolved, and he focuses on the new frontier of traditional financial functions migrating to the balance sheets of central banks, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and different currencies. He believes this shift will drive rates and funding markets in the future and intends to focus on mapping and understanding this new shadow banking terrain.
Finally, Poszar highlights the fact that “in the IMF data and in the data of the Gold Council, we see this massive increase in foreign central banks’ purchases of gold.”
“That gold aspect definitely survives… You basically have gained sovereignty from a monetary perspective… So again, you will not have to run with as much FX reserves…
…I think that gold aspect definitely survives… I think the commodity shortage and this… I think it’s definitely there in gold.“
* * *
Listen to the full podcast below:
Zoltan reveals his next move — 2:06
The meaning of Ex Uno Plures — 2:31
Is the Bretton Woods III thesis playing out? Plus a new angle on CBDCs— 5:19
Are big macro stories actionable for investors? — 15:26
Changes in structural demand for US Treasuries — 24:13
The role of commodities financing in Bretton Woods III — 27:21
Thoughts on the recent banking drama — 33:36 Strength of the banking system now — 39:51
Full disclosure he is a friend and someone I greatly admire; he has been sidelined by the Freedom Fighter media, interviewed & sidelined for he knows more, knew more & they know he is correct!
Mass vaccination has to be considered the largest and most dangerous gain-of-function experiment ever conducted in the history of biology; this mass vaccination into the teeth of an ongoing pandemic was a catastrophic failure and the worse is yet to come. We severely disregarded the evolutionary capacity of the virus to adapt and we failed to approach this within the complex virus-population immunity response puzzle that it is, a delicate dance. Each pressuring the other and forcing change with selective pressure our greatest enemy.
Geert writes:
‘As a scientist with over 30 years of professional experience in virology, immunology, and vaccines, I prioritize truth and directness in my approach.
I would therefore like to express my concerns regarding the infection-prevention measures and mass vaccination program recommended by the WHO during this pandemic, which I believe lack scientific rationale and should be considered a significant blunder in the history of medicine, public health, and vaccine science.
The WHO ignored the limitations of their recommendations for preventing transmission of a virus that can easily spread in the absence of symptoms. While measures like lockdowns, social distancing, and mask-wearing may initially have saved lives, they have hindered the population from developing herd immunity, leading to the highly problematic propagation of more infectious variants. Instead, PH authorities should have focused on protecting vulnerable individuals from exposure to a high viral load, for instance by avoiding concentrations in nursing homes or improving hygienic conditions in areas with poor sanitation.
While the mass vaccination program initially did save lives, it did not prevent viral transmission as the antibodies (Abs) induced by the C-19 vaccines could not protect from viral infection and shedding. As the mass vaccination campaigns were conducted in the midst of a pandemic, they predictably led to the selection of more infectious immune escape variants that managed to overcome the suboptimal vaccine-induced immunity and therefore spectacularly increased in prevalence. These variants are now posing a global health threat.
In contrast to natural infection, the C-19 vaccines do not activate killing of virus-infected cells by innate immune cells. As a result, vaccinated subjects could solely rely on vaccine-induced anti-spike antibodies for protection. Although the C-19 vaccines largely protect from severe C- 19 disease, they do not prevent viral infection and transmission, allowing the virus to escape from the vaccine-induced antibodies and cause vaccine breakthrough infections (VBTIs). Since the advent of Omicron, these VBTIs have now triggered a self-fueling cascade of viral immune escape and turned a natural pandemic into an ever-evolving immune escape pandemic, instead of driving the virus into endemicity.
Nevertheless, influential scientific experts who even published that the virus could escape from the immune pressure exerted by vaccine-induced Abs relentlessly supported the concept of conducting mass vaccination campaigns during the pandemic.
Although molecular epidemiologists have unambiguously shown that the selected mutations converge to specific spike protein domains that are under population-level immune pressure, none of them is willing to attribute this immune pressure to the C-19 vaccines targeting the very spike protein.
Although the hospitalization and mortality rates are now much lower than those observed during the pre-Omicron era, more infectious variants continue to spread. This is prompting concerns about the emergence of immune escape variants with enhanced virulence that could compromise protection against severe C-19 disease. Are we witnessing a kind of silence before the storm? And why has the WHO been urging countries across the globe to prepare for new surges or for a new pandemic with an even deadlier potential?
Because the virus continuously escaped from the immune response induced in highly vaccinated populations, there was a need for WHO and national PH agencies to change definitions of vaccine, immunity, herd immunity and ‘being vaccinated’, all of this to make vaccinated people believe that the C-19 vaccines were still highly efficacious amid the presence of immune escape variants. For much too long, PH experts have willfully ignored that natural immunity in the unvaccinated can acquire sterilizing capacity and that the unvaccinated are therefore not a breeding ground for more infectious immune escape variants.
In conclusion, large-scale infection-prevention measures and mass vaccination campaigns, as recommended by the WHO, cannot effectively control pandemics caused by acute, self-limiting viral infections like corona or influenza virus. Instead, they prevent the population from developing herd immunity and perpetuate the pandemic. This situation should be considered a dangerous gain-of-function experiment, impacting humanity.
While it is not for me to decide whether the WHO’s recommendations constitute a crime against humanity, I am deeply concerned about the scientific integrity of these recommendations. They are an insult to independent scientists, who have been advocating for an open and scientifically-driven dialogue but have instead been unduly silenced, ridiculed, or even censored. The reckless implementation of WHO’s recommendations by national health authorities and lawmakers and propagandized by the mainstream media and scientifically illiterate factcheckers has been a slap in the face of all citizens who’ve been coerced into taking the risky jab.’
Dr. Alfredo Victoria Moreno, a popular Mexican TV doctor who regularly appeared on “Mexico Today” as a “vaccination expert,” died suddenly in his sleep from a myocardial infarction. He was 42 years old.
Dr. Alfredo described himself as a “COVID-19 fighter, epidemiologist, vaccination expert, public health specialist.”
Dr. Alfredo regularly promoted COVID mRNA vaccines on “Mexico Today,” a national TV news show. He even administered vaccines to staff members on air, which were “a testament to his unwavering commitment to the vaccine.”
He also amassed 423,000 followers on Instagram, where he regularly promoted the vaccine. In one of his final posts, five weeks ago, he posted a video with another doctor claiming that there was no risk of stroke from the vaccine “to the best of their knowledge.”
what then? why are we seeing these incidents of people incapacitated behind the wheel e.g. school bus drives, drivers, airline pilots, & all with one common thread, COVID vaccine? 2nd girl dies!
2nd student now dies due to the crash, prior badly injured.
What is happening here to pilots, school bus drivers, drivers, this incident? Is this vaccine-induced ‘silent’ asymptomatic myocarditis that caused damaged scarred heart muscle? Similar to what happened to Damar Hamlin, NFL’s Buffalo Bills player? Shane Warne, Australian cricketer? Even Jamie FOXX? Are we that stupid to have been misled for 3 years on all things COVID (the fraud non-pandemic) yet now see these unexplained deaths but are tongue tied and will not ask the questions?
Did the driver suffer arrhythmia and then cardiac arrest, due to scarred ‘dead’ heart muscle and the surge of adrenaline (catecholamines) across the scarred myocarditis heart? Similar to what we are seeing in the ‘dying at dawn, dying in your sleep’ phenomenon now emerging (young persons dying in their sleep due to silent myocarditis vaccine-induced and as they rise with simultaneous surge of catecholamines)?
Was this aneurysm that the driver suffered? Was this a seizure vaccine induced? Hemorrhage? Blood clotting? Should we mandate that all pilots of commercial planes, school bus drivers etc. take tests to exclude silent myocarditis and clots before taking to the wheel? Cockpit? Even airline stewardesses? Anyone transporting many persons? Drivers? Truck drivers? Test like D-Dimer to test for micro clots (micro thrombi found post mRNA vaccine), high-sensitivity troponin to test for heart damage, EKG, chest MRI (contrast gadolinium)?
Do we stick our heads in the sand? Can we ask the questions? What are we dealing with here? I am appealing to all those involved with the COVID shots to come forward and help explain to the public and the medical community what is happening here and what they can do to help reverse or mitigate this. Please.
We are seeing now people committing suicide due to the vaccine injuries. They cannot go on in their usual high-functioning lives. Depressed, anxious, and they kill themselves.
Why must we be silent? Why must I, Makis, McCullough et al. be attacked for raising serious needed questions?
‘The driver of a car that smashed into a school in Wimbledon this week, killing a girl and injuring many more, is said to have had a seizure losing control of the vehicle.
The unnamed driver was in a “delirious” state, bit through her tongue and slammed her foot down on the accelerator, smashing into the Study primary school in south-west London, according to a source.
She is not thought to have been under the influence of drugs or alcohol while behind the wheel.’
be ineffective, will not sterilize virus (stop infection, replication, transmission); this is all utter chaos & dangerous for these criminals at Pfizer, Moderna, FDA etc. know they cause new variants
Time for DeSantis to bow out, Trump-Kennedy ticket looks good, so many love them, either of them, and so many hate them too, it’s life, but what a ticket…I will vote for that
James Woods Calls on ‘Handlers’ to ‘Intercede’ as Video of Biden Licking & Sniffing Toddler Goes ViralLegendary actor James Woods has called on Joe Biden’s “handlers” to “intercede” after a disturbing video has gone viral that appears to show the Democrat president licking and sniffing a toddler. The video has provoked a mix of widespread outrage, mockery, and confusion. Many are now demanding answers over President Biden’s creepy behavior. Woods was one of many to comment …READ MORE
President Biden Authorizes Mobilization of 3,000 Reserve Troops for Ukraine Defense OperationPresident Joe Biden signed an order on Thursday allowing the Pentagon to call up as many as 3,000 reserve troops to support Operation Atlantic Resolve in Europe. He wrote, “In accordance with section 12304(f) of title 10, United States Code, I am providing notice that I have authorized the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Homeland Security with respect …READ THE FULL REPORT
Three Apparent Illegal Immigrants Arrested in Idaho Near Target Store with Over $2500 in Stolen GoodsThree people were arrested near Boise, Idaho in the area of a Target store among other department stores. The press release states that all three suspects have US Immigration Holds. Madalina-Roxanna Nicolae, 25, Daniela Nistor, 23, and Elvis Constantin, 31, were apprehended as part of a joint operation between the metropolitan cities of Boise and Nampa in Idaho. The release …READ THE FULL REPORT
Sound of Freedom Movie Allegedly Funded by Billionaire Philanthropists with Ties to Human TraffickingJuly 14, 2023 3:36 pmMore information is continuing to surface about the people behind the box office hit movie “Sound of Freedom.” As I wrote in my original critique of this film, the fact that this movie is becoming so popular on the Big Screen is proof that the “elite” are NOT censoring it, as so many in the Right Wing Christian alternative media are claiming. I received plenty of negative emails from Conservatives after my review of the Sound of Freedom film, because in the minds of so many “Conservatives” the child trafficking issue is only a “liberal” problem, and the child sex trafficking business, according to them, is all backed by the Bidens, who are the ones trying to stop the film from being seen. But new evidence is coming to light that indicates that not only do the wealthy child sex traffickers not mind if you go watch Sound of Freedom, but they are the ones who actually funded it. Billionaire John Paul DeJoria is listed as an “executive producer” of Sound of Freedom. He is a philanthropist who was invited by Bill Gates and Warren Buffet to become part of the Billionaire Giving Pledge which funded the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Another Billionaire philanthropist who allegedly help fund Sound of Freedom, is Mexican Carlos Slim. Even the Right Wing publication National File saw some issues with this association : “Why did Hunter Biden and Hillary Clinton’s Mexican Cartel Partner Carlos Slim Fund Sound of Freedom?” Others are also questioning the organization that received the donations from these Billionaire philanthropists to fund the film’s release into theaters, Angel Studios. Neal Harmon is the CEO of Angel Studios, and is part of the Mormon Church. He did his missionary service in Mexico. Some have linked the Mormons in Mexico as working with the cartels. Greg Reese just published a video today showing how Angel Studios is encouraging people to “Help Combat Child Trafficking” by linking to sources operated by the Polaris Project, which is linked to John Podesta and the Clintons, and actually funds child trafficking, allegedly bringing in over $150 billion annually for child trafficking.Read More…New Mexico Foster Parent Confesses Guilt of Sexually Abusing Children for Years but Does No Jail Time, 8-Year-Old Girl Awarded $485 MillionJuly 14, 2023 7:02 pmAs the movie “Sound of Freedom” is shown to packed out movie theaters across the U.S. to millions of people sitting in air conditioned theaters eating their popcorn, shaking their heads at the “horror of child sex trafficking” that is portrayed in poor countries like Columbia, tens of thousands of young children are being sexually abused and trafficked right here in our own borders every day, begging for help, with their voices falling on deaf ears. And it is all “legal,” because it is being done under the color of law in our nation’s child welfare system. One of those cases actually made the corporate news this week, but was obviously drowned out by all the hype behind the Sound of Freedom movie. A jury in New Mexico awarded $485 million to an 8-year-old female victim of Clarence Garcia, a 66-year-old foster parent in New Mexico who sexually abused the girl while she was in his care. As horrible as this crime was, Garcia had been sexually abusing young children in his care as far back as 1999 when he was licensed as a foster parent in New Mexico, and pleaded guilty to charges of sexually abusing six girls in his care in January this year (2023). But in spite of the fact that he admitted his crimes and was now a convicted pedophile, he was NOT sentenced to do any jail or prison time, but simply given probation, where he reportedly continued his crimes resulting in the conviction earlier this week of the 8-year-old girl.Read More…
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
A “Minsky Moment” Powder Keg
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 01:20 PM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
The University of Michigan consumer survey released last Friday held good news for the economy that may be bad news for markets. Measures of consumer sentiment, current conditions and future expectations all surged. However, 1-year inflation expectations defied analyst predictions of a fall to rise by one tick on the month to 3.4%, while 5-10 year inflation expectations also nudged higher to 3.1%. The strong reading appears in contrast to the CPI inflation report released last week, which showed core inflation running two ticks lower than expected at 4.8% year-on-year and also puts further pressure on widespread expectations of impending recession.
10-year Treasury yields duly rose by almost 7bps to 3.83%, but remain well off the 4.08% highest close for the year that was recorded just ten days ago. Equity markets seem to be unsure what to make of it all. The NASDAQ closed down 0.18% while the lower beta Dow Jones index recorded a gain of 0.33%. Separating the signal from the noise here is difficult, but the overall impression is that the inflation battle has not yet been convincingly won.
As with many things, there is a world of contrast here between the United States and China. While markets were celebrating core inflation of *only* 4.8% last week, China was reporting consumer price growth of zero in June and accelerating producer price deflation.
This rang some alarm bells in trade-exposed economies like Australia and New Zealand, where the financial press picked up on the poor figures to point out that demand for commodity exports looks dicey in the months ahead, but there remains a glimmer of hope from the efforts of the People’s Bank of China and the central government to reflate the economy via fiscal and monetary stimulus. Calls for stimulus will grow all the louder after this morning’s second quarter GDP figures showed the Chinese economy expanding 6.3% year-on-year. Much slower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 7.1%.
Recent PMI data from China shows that manufacturing remains under pressure and while the economy experienced a tailwind from re-opening after the Covid-zero policy was scrapped late last year, that boost now appears to be petering out. Trade figures released last week showed that Chinese imports contracted by 6.8% in the year to June, while exports fell a whopping 12.4%.
Rabobank’s China expert, Teeuwe Mevissen, has been clear that he expects that any stimulus efforts will be much more modest than we have seen in the past, owing to China’s troubles with high debt loads at the local government level and the smouldering real estate crisis that Xi Xinping has repeatedly failed to staunch through attempts to tighten bank credit standards. We expect that there could be some more targeted support for strategically important sectors (semiconductors?), which regular readers of the Daily may find reminiscent of Michael Every’s predictions of targeted liquidity, or as he puts it: “higher rates + acronyms”.
China is far from being Robinson Crusoe in dealing with issues in over-indebted real estate markets. Commercial real estate valuations in the West face something of a Waterloo moment as the cannonade of “return to office” is thwarted by the Prussian cavalry of increased bargaining power for workers, quiet-quitting and a discount rates that have leapt higher after 500bps worth of monetary tightening. Gillian Tett observes in the FT that $270bn of commercial real estate debt facilities are due to be refinanced this year, and up to $1.5trn over the next three years. Sinking valuations have been driven by lower demand for office space, which may mean that commercial real estate has shifted from Minsky’s definition of speculative financing (where cashflows on the asset are sufficient to meet financing liabilities, but not sufficient to repay the principal) to Ponzi-financing, whereby cashflows on the asset are no longer sufficient to repay principal OR interest charges under prevailing market rates. The implications for broader economic stability are enormous, and imply that the wobbles that we saw in the US banking sector earlier this year and the British pension system last year is not the end of the financial stability story.
This all leaves to one side what is going on in housing markets, where much of the attention continues to focus on the day-to-day plight of homeowners, rather than the broader macro stability picture. The RBNZ last week suggested in the Monetary Policy Statement that accompanied their decision to leave interest rates on hold that there was no conflict between the inflation mandate and the financial stability mandate. That seems divergent from the views of the Fed and the ECB, where interest rate decisions earlier in the year made it very clear that financial stability considerations did, in fact, inform how aggressive those central banks could be in achieving their inflation targets. In Australia, the RBA doesn’t even have a financial stability mandate. This responsibility was hived off to the banking regulator in the late 1990s, leaving the RBA only with a nebulous commitment to the “financial wellbeing of the Australian people”.
Housing market woes appear particularly acute in the UK, where there is a growing chorus of requests for government assistance with mortgage payments. Of course, the very idea of “mortgage relief” runs completely counter to the policy prescriptions of the Bank of England, who are now making the Sophie’s Choice between tightening monetary policy enough to force people out of their homes and businesses, or allowing inflation to continue to run out of control. So far, policy support has been limited to clearing obstacles to the “extend and pretend” approach, and we have seen longer mortgage terms becoming more and more prominent. However, the runway starts to run out when the term of the loan exceeds the reasonable working life of the borrower, or (as in the commercial real estate market) the underlying asset moves into negative equity. Rather than encouraging prudent deleveraging, politicians have in the past made absurd suggestions that the policy response to this could be shifting liabilities across generations. That sounds a bit like some kind of neo-serfdom.
Data released by RightMove this morning showing year-on-year house price growth in the UK has now slowed to just 0.5%, making negative equity a real risk for recent borrowers who took out loans with skinny deposits. If we’re now talking about granting mortgages of up to 50 years in term, and turning a blind eye to the credit implications of terming out loan commitments because the amortization schedule no longer sums with the borrower’s income, surely that means that housing markets are now well into Ponzi-financing territory? What happens when the unemployment rate rises, as every central bank is forecasting it will? If years of government “help” for first home buyers via lower deposit requirements coupled with absurdly cheap money from central banks has built a ‘Minsky Moment’ powder keg under the economy via unstable real estate markets, a monetary pause on the back of momentarily encouraging inflation readings may very well be a case of one step forward, two steps back.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
the selling of the strategic reserves by Biden is perhaps the most stupidest move by any President.
(zerohedge)
‘Massive US Oil Caverns’ Are Now Empty, Will Take ‘Decades To Refill’ Thanks To Biden
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM
While it took the Biden administration the better part of six months to drain the US oil supply down to a precarious 20-days of emergency reserves (a 40-year low), it will take decades to refill – if that happens at all, Bloomberg reports.
Stroll through the West Hackberry oil facility on the US Gulf Coast and there’s not much to see: some pipelines and other industrial equipment. But buried deep beneath the surface are storage caverns so massive they’re tall enough to house the Empire State Building with plenty of room to spare.
Thanks to the Biden administration, these reserve sites are sitting half empty.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) now sits at 346.8 million barrels – a level unseen since 1983 – out of a total authorized storage capacity of 714 million.
Perhaps even more noteworthy, the emergency reserves are equal to approximately just 20 days worth of supply – an all-time record low…
Replenishing the supply will be a nontrivial and lengthy process according to experts, who say that a lack of funding and ancient infrastructure will hinder the process, despite the Energy Department’s vow to keep buying.
Now that energy costs are back down comes the task of refilling the reserve. That will be a complicated, expensive process. Oil prices are now much higher than when most of the inventory was originally bought — the average price paid for oil in the reserve was $29.70 per barrel, which compares with the current benchmark cost for US crude futures at about $75.
And there’s the balance between needing to buy and not purchasing too much at once, lest the oil market gets spooked and prices jump higher. -Bloomberg
“It would be a very slow process even if you had the money and the facilities were are all in good shape,” said John Shages, who previously oversaw the oil cache for the Energy Department, adding “It could take decades.“
The depleted SPR also means that the US could be vulnerable to oil price shocks. In particular, during domestic supply crunches, America will be left to the mercy of the Saudis, Russia and the rest of the OPEC+ cartel.
The SPR was established in the 1970s after the Arab oil embargo resulted in a global energy supply shock and a gasoline shortage in the US, in which Americans lined up for hours, on designated days, to refill their cars. Decades later, the SPR still serves a vital function, providing a safety net against geopolitical turbulence and potential supply disruptions.
The Biden administration’s decision to release oil from the SPR has sparked outrage from Republicans – who have accused the admin of manipulating gas prices before the medterm elections last year in November, and have accused them of having no credible plan to refill the reserve.
“DOE’s mismanagement of the SPR has undermined America’s energy security, leaving the nation more vulnerable to energy supply disruptions, and increasing the ability for OPEC and Russia to use energy as a geopolitical weapon,” wrote top House and Senate Republicans in a May letter to the Government Accountability Office, asking the federal watchdog for an audit of the reserve, Bloomberg reports.
The pace of refilling the SPR has been sluggish at best. While the Department of Energy (DOE) plans to replace barrels sold last year, it falls far short of the goal to replenish the reserves to its 2009 peak. Congress’s decision to strip $12.5 billion earmarked for reserve oil purchases further complicates the situation – as the DOE is now left with a mere $4.3 billion to acquire oil, an insufficient amount to fully restore the SPR.
Aging infrastructure poses additional challenges. The Gulf Coast salt caverns that make up the reserve were initially designed with a 25-year lifespan. As such, the risk of cavern dissolution increases with each drawdown and refill. Maintenance issues, along with the ballooning costs of the $1.4 billion modernization program, add further strain to the already troubled reserve.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1234 UP 0.0015
USA/ YEN 138.27 DOWN 0.434 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.3079 DOWN 0.0006
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3217 UP .0011 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 11 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 28.07 PTS OR 0.87%
Hang Seng CLOSED
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.03% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.07 PTS OR 0.87%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.07%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1956.95
silver:$24.81
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 99.56 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1722
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1813)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.35 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.475…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from FRIDAY at 3.827% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.948 UP 2 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 20.08 points or 0.77%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 32.75 PTS OR 0.20%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 85.46 PTS OR 1.16%
Spain IBEX UP 1.10 PTS OR 0.01%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 51.11 PTS OR 0.18%
WTI Oil price 74.78 12: EST
Brent Oil: 79.16 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 90.98 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 98//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4495 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4875 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM (WILL FINALIZE AT 7 PM)
Euro vs USA: 1.1238 UP 0.0020 OR 20 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3071 DOWN .0014 or 14 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.469 % DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 138.63 DOWN 0.082 //YEN UP 8 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3198 DOWN .0008 CDN dollar, UP 8 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 74.15
Brent OIL: 8.43
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 3.807%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 3.926%
USA 2 YR BOND:UP 1 PTS AT 4.742%
USA dollar index: 99.883 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.37 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91.06 DOWN 0 AND 94/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 76.32 PTS OR 0.22%
NASDAQ 100 UP 147.68 PTS OR 0..95%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.48 UP 0.14 PTS (1.05)%
GLD: $181.56 UP 0.13 OR 0.072%
SLV/ $22.79 DOWN .07 OR 0.31%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Stocks Soar, Shrug Off China Chunder; Seth Klarman Warns “I’d Be Worried”
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Weakness in the Empire Fed Manufacturing survey this morning came on the heels of ugly China GDP data overnight (along with really ugly property investment, youth unemployment, and retail sales), prompted bond yields and commodities to drop overnight, but on a quiet-ish day (volume-wise), the day session saw things end quite differently.
Stocks just won’t stop – Small Caps and Nasdaq soared higher today from the cash open. The Dow and S&P also ended comfortably green on the day. Some late-day profit-taking wiped a little lipstick off this pig…
And, of course, another massive short-squeeze unwound all of Friday’s losses in the “most shorted” names…
Source: Bloomberg
The Telco trouncing accelerated today as Jefferies put the owners of cell-phone towers on its list of “stock pans” ahead of earnings season and BMO reiterated that it’s cautious on tower stocks in the near term…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite more threats from the Biden administration to ban chip sales to China, NVDA powered ahead, decoupling (for now) from its 2021 analog…
Source: Bloomberg
Credit markets are seemingly convinced of a soft-landing as the HY-IG spread fell back to its lowest in 15 months…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed today and traded a roller-coaster – yields tumbled overnight and then soared back during the US day-session. 30Y ended marginally higher in yield while the belly outperformed…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was very marginally lower after a pump and dump around the Empire Fed data…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin broke back below $30,000 late in the day, below Friday’s spike-lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil fell overnight following ugly China GDP data but early in the European session it exploded higher (and quickly tumbled back down) after Reuters printed a headline about Saudi extending production cuts through the end of 2024 (only to retract the story within minutes).
Gold limped marginally lower on the day but bounced back nicely from a plunge around the Empire Fed data (and London Fixing)…
“You had a bubble, it was really a credit bubble, that became an everything bubble,” he noted, and “Super-low interest rates, at times zero rates, made capital easily available and incredibly cheap.”
“That led to startup manias and SPACs and meme stocks and crypto, all kinds of speculative activity.”
“You had a lot of hiccups between ’98 and ‘,01 and then the Great Financial Crisis was a really ugly 12 months or so,” he said.
“I’m just not sure why you couldn’t have more trouble.”
“We haven’t seen a lot of bodies float up,” Klarman concluded. “I don’t know what that means, but I’d be worried.”
b) THIS MORNING TRADING//
END
II) USA DATA/
A strong indicator showing that the uSA economy is in trouble
(zerohedge)
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Signals Slowing Inflation, Growth
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 08:57 AM
The New York Fed’s manufacturing survey beat expectations in July (+1.1 vs -3.5 exp), but fell to barely positive from the +6.6 print in June. The overall sentiment index has swung wildly in recent months from optimisms to pessimism and back, and that is highlighted by manufacturers’ diverging views of business conditions, with roughly 29% reporting an improvement and some 27% citing a deterioration.
Perhaps most notably, the report showed a further cooling of inflationary pressures.
Measures of prices paid and received by New York state manufacturers slid to levels not seen since mid-2020.
Source: Bloomberg
However, the outlook for prices received picked up, even as the overall outlook for business declined (with the average workweek expected to decline notably).
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
good reason not to own an EV: huge repair bills even for a minor accident
see for yourself..
(zerohedge)
“Shocking Number”: Rivian Owner Sees $42,000 Repair Bill For Minor Accident
SUNDAY, JUL 16, 2023 – 03:00 PM
We’ve explained to readers that auto insurers are inflating premiums for their customers due to the skyrocketing costs associated with vehicle repairs. Some insurers are opting to write off electric vehicles even for minor incidents, as it’s uneconomical to fix these complex systems. For those insurers who do undertake the repairs on EVs, the expenses are shockingly high.
The latest example of insurers getting roasted on repairs is a report from The New York Times that says a Rivian owner said his R1T electric pickup truck was involved in a minor fender bender in February in Columbus, Ohio. The insurance company of the driver who struck Chris Apfelstadt’s R1T offered to pay about $1,600 for the repairs.
However, after the R1T was taken to a certified repair shop in Columbus, the costs soared to a whopping $42,000 — or about half of the starting price of the EV.
“A key reason is that the accident damaged a sleek panel that extends from the truck’s rear to front roof pillars. Repairing and repainting it set off a cascade of pricey work, including removing the interior ceiling material, known as the headliner, and front windshield,” NYT wrote.
Perhaps the high costs were also associated with “Rivian’s small size and youth”… and “like other auto start-ups, the company, which is based in Irvine, Calif., and delivered its first vehicles to customers in 2021, does not sell through franchised dealers and has had to build an independent repair network from scratch,” the paper continued.
Auto experts have said repairing EVs is more expensive than fixing gasoline vehicles. We penned a note in March titled Not ESG-Friendly: Insurers Junk Entire EVs For Minor Accidents. It only takes one minor accident to damage a battery pack, and if that occurs, it must be replaced at the cost of tens of thousands of dollars.
At the same time, auto insurance rates are soaring as the cost of fixing not just EVs but all vehicles has led to significant losses for big insurance companies over the last few years. America’s largest insurer, State Farm, lost 28 cents for every premium written in 2022. It posted a $13 billion underwriting loss for its auto arm.
If you’ve visited a vintage car show this summer, you’ve likely overheard chatter like, “I wish they still made cars like these.” We agree that incorporating technology into cars is beneficial, but the expense of maintenance and repair in the event of any malfunction or minor fender bender is astronomical. Decades ago, when vehicles had no microchips, anyone with the right tools and common sense could repair these simple machines and even change the oil. It’s becoming clear that complex automobiles have their downfalls.
end
Luxury group Richemont plunges on signs of a steep weaking in USA markets
(zerohedge)
Luxury Group Richemont Plunges On Signs Of Worsening US Slowdown
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 08:45 AM
Luxury group Richemont, the owner of Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels jewelry, reported a surprise drop in revenue from the Americas in the three months through June. Faltering demand in one of its biggest markets is an ominous sign of a weakening consumer.
Richemont reported an overall 19% increase in sales. Jewelry revenue rose 24%, coming in line with analyst expectations. Its watchmaker division recorded sales growth of 10% at constant currencies, missing analyst consensus forecasts. Most of the growth came from Asia-Pacific and European markets. However, the slowdown in luxury demand in the US, which saw a 4% decline, overshadowed optimism.
Pessisms about US markets sent shares of Richemont in Europe tumbling as much as 9.5%, the most significant decline in more than a year.
Luxury goods stocks slid on the news, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE fell 3%, Hermes dropped 3%, and Kering declined 2.0%. The Stoxx 600 Consumer Products index fell 2.6%.
In May, Richemont Chairman Johann Rupert warned about an emerging US downturn, forecasting that the world’s largest economy would experience a credit contraction.
Even though Richemont’s overall sales were solid, mainly because of Asia and Europe, there were new concerns about a China slowdown following overnight news of weaker-than-expected GDP numbers.
Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying about the US slowdown (list courtesy of Bloomberg):
Citi (buy, PT CHF180.5)
A mixed bag of results but full-year consensus for sales and operating profits should remain broadly unchanged
“The miss was entirely due to the US turning negative,” analysts Thomas Chauvet and Lorenzo Bracco write
Expect pressure on the share price
Bloomberg Intelligence
“Richemont’s slight beat on consensus confirms support from high-margin jewelry, own retail and Asia, where we expect China to have rebounded,” wrote Bloomberg analyst Deborah Aitken
“That supports a more muted performance in Americas, where we expect more investment to build up,” she adds
The 2% drop in sales in the Americas falls slightly short of consensus, though there was a wide range of estimates due to its 25% fiscal 1Q23 comparable year-ago growth base there. Similarly for Europe, where growth is against a 42% year-ago mark
Vontobel analyst Jean-Philippe Bertschy
“Negative growth in the Americas is likely to temper some of the market expectations.”
This adds to the mounting concerns about a slowdown in the US economy, and it comes during a period where the Biden administration is promoting ‘Bidenomics’ ahead of the 2024 presidential election cycle.
end
Another hazardous train derailment
(zerohedge)
Freight Train Derails Outside Of Philadelphia, Prompting Level Two Hazmat Response
MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 11:00 AM
President Biden’s social media team of more than 70 staffers was not following news flow this morning when they tweeted from the president’s Twitter account, “My Administration is committed to constructing a 21st-century rail system.” That’s because multiple train cars derailed in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, hours earlier, prompting a Level 2 hazmat response that forced an evacuation of a residential community near the tracks.
Around 0450 ET, emergency crews responded to a 40-car CSX freight train that derailed in the Whitemarsh Township’s Plymouth Meeting section near Flourtown Road, Joshua Road and Stenton Avenue.
FOX 29 News Philadelphia reported, “Multiple train cars believed to be carrying hazardous materials derailed in the area, prompting a Level 2 hazmat response.” Hours later, officials said the material leaking from train cars was silicone pellets and posed no threat to the local community. The evacuation order has since been lifted.
CSX tweeted this statement about the incident:
“At approximately 4:50 a.m. ET today, a CSX train carrying 40 cars derailed around 16 cars on Norfolk Southern tracks near the intersection of Joshua and Flourtown Road in Whitemarsh, PA. While preliminary reports indicate that one car transporting hazardous material was involved in the incident, there is no indication of any leaks or spills of hazardous materials and there are no injuries to the crew of the train. The local fire department responded and declared an evacuation of just over a dozen homes out of an abundance of caution.”
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro responded to the derailment on Twitter:
“My team and I are monitoring the train derailment in Whitemarsh Twp and assisting local first responders. Thank you to the residents taking precautions at the direction of local authorities. I urge you to continue following their instruction.”
The Biden administration’s social media team needed better timing on their tweet this morning about building the next generation of rail systems while existing infrastructure crumbles.
Meanwhile, we still remember the East Palestine train disaster in Ohio, even though it seems like both the Biden administration and corporate media have quietly swept the story under the rug, particularly as we approach the 2024 presidential election cycle. Earlier this month, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine asked President Biden to declare a major disaster declaration.
USA// COVID//VACCINE
end
SWAMP STORIES
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report July 17, 2019 Issue 7033
Independent View of the News
JPMorgan’s profit jumps on interest income boost from First Republic deal Dimon flagged high inflation, consumers using up their cash buffers, quantitative tightening and the war in Ukraine as some of the risks… NII… was $21.9 billion, up 44%, or up 38% excluding First Republic. The bank forecast NII of about $87 billion for the full year, higher than the $83.37 billion expected… Its profit climbed 67% to $14.47 billion, or $4.75 per share, for the quarter… Excluding one-time costs, the bank earned $4.37 per share, comfortably above analysts’ average estimate of $4.00 per share… The bank also set aside $2.9 billion as provision for credit losses, more than doubling from last year… https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-second-quarter-profit-rises-higher-interest-income-2023-07-14/
@OccupytheFeds: So JPM “beat” because the US government seized First Republic and handed its profitable assets to the biggest bankster in America on a silver platter, while saddling regular American taxpayers with its losses. The total perversion of our financial system is nearing completion!
The University of Michigan’s Sentiment index jumped 8.2 to 72.6 in June; 64.4 was expected. This is a 2-year high. But, 1-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.3%; 3.1% was expected. Current Conditions increased to 77.5 from 69, also a 2-year high; 70.5 was expected. Expectations rose 7.4 to 69.4; 61.5 was consensus.
JPM rallied sharply after its earnings release and hit a high of 154.50 at 6:57 ET. After a retreat to 152, JPM trading within a 2-handle range until it broke down 3 minutes before the NSYE opening. Too many traders were long in anticipation of great results. Patsies bought JPM after the NYSE opening. Alas, JPM topped out at 152.89 at 9:42 ET and turned negative at 11:00 ET. There wasn’t enough dump money to absorb all the JPM longs.
ESUs traded sideways in negative territory until they jumped higher on JPM earnings. ESUs hit a daily high of 4560.50 at 10:16 ET. They then sank to 4541.75 at 10:48 ET. At this time, ESUs turned negative. This apparently upset traders that were long for the Friday rally. So, they quickly and aggressively bought ESUs, driving them 11 handles by the 11:30 ET European close.
Old World traders wanted and needed to manipulate stuff higher for ‘the marks’ ahead of the weekend.
The rally ended at 11:37 ET. ESUs and stocks stair stepped lower, hitting new lows at 13:00 ET. The decline persisted until 13:06 ET; ESUs were -22.25 from the high. An 11-handle ESU rally ended at 14:16 ET. The ensuing 11-handle retreat ended at 14:37 ET. It was time for traders to get long for the expected last-hour manipulation. A 6-handle ESU rally ended at 14:55 ET. ESUs tumbled 12 handles in 6 minutes! But the bulk of traders were long and they needed ‘the marks’ for the weekend.
So, someone quickly jammed ESUs higher. Alas, too many traders were long; so, ESUs sank. New lows appeared at 15:50 ET. Finally, trapped longs manipulated ESUs 9 handles higher by the close.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied early on JPM earnings and Friday rally expectations Commodities declined Traders saved the S&P 500 Index near 4500 twice on Friday
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined sharply The DJTA declined while other equity indices rallied Fangs and Nasdaq were up sharply in the morning, but tumbled in the afternoon to close negative
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How will stocks act during Q2 earnings reporting season?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4510.91 Previous session High/Low: 4527.76; 4499.56
United Airlines pilots reach ‘historic’ agreement in principle, with big pay raises, other perks Will raise pilot pay by up to 40% over four years… (Is this inflationary, Jerome?) https://t.co/2k8hmzpGhu
Top Biden official ripped for no-showing hearing on $200 billion COVID-19 fraud: ‘This is a big deal’ – Isabella Casillas Guzman, head of the Small Business Administration, turned down an invite to appear before the House Small Business Committee, citing scheduling conflicts. As a result, lawmakers were left scrambling to rectify the vast gap between the SBA’s $36 billion estimate of COVID-19 fraud and the $200 billion projection from its Office of Inspector General, led by Hannibal Ware — who did find the time to show up for the hearing… https://nypost.com/2023/07/13/top-biden-official-a-no-show-at-hearing-on-200-billion-covid-19-fraud/
US sending F-16 fighter jets to protect ships from Iranian seizures in Gulf region In addition, the defense official told reporters the U.S. is considering a number of military options to address increasing Russian aggression in the skies over Syria, which complicated efforts to strike an Islamic State group leader last weekend. The official declined to detail the options, but said the U.S. will not cede any territory and will continue to fly in the western part of the country on anti-Islamic State missions… The most recent incident was Friday morning, when a Russia aircraft flew repeatedly over the at-Tanf garrison in eastern Syria, where U.S. forces are training Syrian allies and monitoring Islamic State militant activity. The official said the Russian An-30 aircraft was collecting intelligence on the base. The U.S. did not have fighter aircraft in the area and took no direct action against the Russian flight. https://ca.style.yahoo.com/us-sending-f-16-fighter-222917720.html
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen dined on psychedelic mushrooms in China: report Yellen, 76, gobbled four portions of jian shou qing, a type of wild mushroom, when she dropped in at a casual Beijing restaurant soon after she arrived there on July 6, Chinese state media reported in an effusive story that took care to praise the secretary’s chopstick skills… “I have a friend who mistakenly ate them and hallucinated for three days,” Dr. Peter Mortimer, a professor at Kunming Institute of Botany, told CNN… https://nypost.com/2023/07/15/treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-dined-on-psychedelic-mushrooms-in-china-report/
The Select Committee on the CCP @committeeonccp: @RepJimBanks: “To what degree are U.S. financial investments powering China’s military-civil fusion strategy?” @shehzadhqazi: “The problem is that the lack of disclosure and transparency means that we simply don’t know that today.” https://twitter.com/committeeonccp/status/1679662574890090496
Today – This is expiry week; traders want to be long for the usual manipulation. Netflix and Tesla report on Wednesday. Despite the good June CPI Report and great JPM earnings, stocks struggled on Thursday and Friday after the robust rallies earlier in the week. Traders saved the S&P 500 Index near 4500 twice on Friday. Obviously, 4500 is important support today. ESUs are -5.00 at 20:045 ET.
Expected economic data: June Empire Mfg 0.0; Fed in blackout period; Expected earnings: None
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4285; 100-day MA: 4160; 150-day MA: 4099; 200-day MA: 4030 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,701; 100-day MA: 33,385; 150-day MA: 33,467; 200-day MA: 33,085 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4256.94 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4422.56 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4491.70 triggers a sell signal
@WarMachineRR: During his departure from Finland, President Joe Biden bizarrely sniffed and bit at the shoulder of a frightened little girl.https://twitter.com/WarMachineRR/status/1679896415126925322 (Have you ever seen another POTUS do something like this?! 81 million votes my…!)
Watch: Creepy Joe Mouths a Little Girl in Finland in Strangest Incident Yet The president of the United States has once again surrendered to his unsettling impulses toward children — weirdly mouthing a little girl in Finland…In video of the incident, a woman is seen holding a very little girl who’s perhaps one or two years old. Biden shuffles up, and proceeds to open his open mouth wide against the girl’s shoulder before vigorously opening and closing his jaw at least a dozen times. As she understandably scowls at him in disgust, Biden scowls back for a few seconds — before closing in for his signature juvenile-hair-sniff, only to be denied as his tiny victim squirms away… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-creepy-joe-mouths-little-girl-finland-strangest-incident-yet
Truth about Biden’s Vacations Biden has spent 353 days — 39.2% of his presidency — on vacation… Not only does Biden’s nasty vacation habit surpass the previous administration — even an analysis by The Washington Post admits as much — Biden is also on track to outpace all his modern predecessors… https://gop.com/rapid-response/truth-about-biden-vacations/
The FBI got fact-checked yesterday with a brutal Community Note slapped on this tweet: @FBI: In reference to the false assertions about investigating parents at school board meetings, FBI Director Wray told the House Judiciary Com. that the Bureau is not in the business of policing speech. The FBI’s statement is misleading. On May 18, 2023, former FBI agent Steve Friend testified before the House Judiciary Committee that he and others were directed to surveil and document parents attending school board meetings. Source: https://www.c-span.org/video/?528159-1/fbi-employees-testify-weaponization-committee https://t.co/CErTh2X9xf
Secret Service admits it twice found marijuana at White House — months before cocaine discovery At the executive mansion last year… “No one was arrested in these incidents because the weight of the marijuana confiscated did not meet the legal threshold for federal charges or DC misdemeanor criminal charges as the District of Columbia had decriminalized possession. The marijuana was collected by officers and destroyed.”… https://t.co/r7Xsa7SKDE
JESSE WATTERS: The Secret Service can’t crack a drug deal at the White House First we were told it was in the library and then it was in a little cubby and then it was near the Situation Room. Where hasn’t the coke been? But now the Secret Service is saying it’s back in the cubby. You’re telling me cocaine winds up in the White House and there’s no cameras? In the White House? The Secret Service has everything: facial recognition, security screenings, DNA, canines, forensic analysis, fingerprinting logs, and the coke just happened to be dropped in the one blind spot?… https://www.foxnews.com/media/jesse-watters-secret-service-cant-crack-drug-deal-white-house
Veteran feds cry foul on White House cocaine probe: ‘This is a cover-up’ “It is a restricted area and they have a log book, you don’t have to be Columbo to figure out who was there. “Suppose it was anthrax,” the same person raged. “Would they have the same answer?” “We have a tale of two countries,” another former fed said. “They identified hundreds of people who were in the Capitol building on Jan. 6 after an extensive investigation, but they don’t know who left something in an 8 x 10 room in the White House?”… https://nypost.com/2023/07/13/former-federal-investigators-cry-foul-on-wh-cocaine-this-is-a-coverup/
Team Biden has gotten away with so many whoppers that it believes it can insult Americans’ intelligence with even more egregious and monumental lies. How can anyone issue the risible claptrap that interviewing a suspect might violate their civil rights?
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Triggers Overdue Debate about China’s Secretive Ethnically-Targeted Bioweapons Research – Kennedy tweeted, “I have never, ever suggested that the COVID-19 virus was targeted to spare Jews…I accurately pointed out — during an off-the-record conversation — that the U.S. and other governments are developing ethnically targeted bioweapons and that a 2021 study of the COVID-19 virus shows that COVID-19 appears to disproportionately affect certain races since the furin cleave docking site is most compatible with Blacks and Caucasians and least compatible with ethnic Chinese, Finns, and Ashkenazi Jews.”… Another senior investigator within the US government told Public, “When discussing bioweapons, ‘ethnic targeting’ is absolutely a goal that the Chinese government has declared…” https://public.substack.com/p/robert-f-kennedy-jr-triggers-overdue
Boston mayor Michelle Wu under fire after sending list of critics and protesters to policehttps://t.co/JdSDXnpjqX
Too many Americans ignore, excuse, or enable corruption and tyranny. Of course, too many Americans are dependent on the feudal lords of government.
Son of Canadian pastor facing prison for sermon blasts Trudeau before EU Parliament, draws standing ovation – Nathaniel Pawlowski was invited to address the EU Parliament in Brussels on behalf of his father, Pastor Artur Pawlowski, who has been continuously entangled with authorities in Calgary, Alberta, since he ejected police and public health officials from his Cave of Adullam church as they attempted to inspect it for COVID-19 compliance during an Easter service in 2021… https://t.co/fWboo0xKNT
New research puts age of universe at 26.7 billion years, nearly twice as old as previously believedhttps://t.co/S6HZIcGRsR (Once again, ‘settled science’ is unsettled.)
Karen Kingston is a biotech analyst and former Pfizer employee who was one of the first to warn of the dangers of the so-called CV19 “vaccines.” Kingston showed the danger of the nanotechnology called mRNA, which Big Pharma patents say is, in fact, an electromagnetic device. Kingston was also one of the first to warn the CV19 vax was the “Beginning of Transhumanism,” a bioweapon, and not a vaccine at all. With all the negative facts about the vaccines and mRNA nanoparticle biotech, the shots are still being injected unabated. 676 million CV19 injections have been given in the USA alone with more than 13 billion CV19 injections worldwide. This is a massive global crime, and it’s still going on. Kingston explains, “These (vaccines) were designed to cause harm, disease, and we are being experimented on. A lot of people say, well, why don’t they just kill us? That’s like a mouse saying to a scientist, ‘Why don’t you just kill us?’ Because scientists are experimenting on the mice to figure out a way to benefit themselves. These psychopaths are experimenting on humans to figure out a way to benefit artificial intelligence. That’s what’s going on. It’s criminal human experimentation with weapons. What I just said sounds like a conspiracy theory. You can go through my letter, which is all Pfizer documents and government documents. I have the military’s DMED (Defense Medical Epidemiology Database) documents in there. . . . All the hard evidence is there.”
Kingston also says people were not told they were being experimented on by Big Pharma. Kingston points out, “The clinical trials were never designed to demonstrate they could prevent infection and protect against disease. No one was given informed consent in the clinical trials and also under the EUA (Emergency Use Authorization). People were not told about the risks that the FDA knew about in October 2020, which was a dozen neurological disorders and cardiovascular problems. So, they were not told any of this. So, that is not bona fide research. That’s criminal research. . . . Pfizer, who was going to make $50 billion, was put in charge of safety, ethics and data interpretation. So, this was not bona fide research. It was criminal experimentation.”
Kingston says the mRNA/nanoparticles are still being injected, and they are also being used in other products without the public’s knowledge. Kingston wants to start with getting local sheriffs to start pulling the CV19 vaccines off the market because they are killing and disabling an uninformed public. Kingston says, “Once the shots are seized for the Covid 19 injections, I want people to wake up and say where else is this nanotechnology? Big Pharma companies are putting this technology in a lot of injectables. So, there are other people being injected and dying. . . . They are putting it into cosmetics like Botox and fillers. We need to stop this now, but we need to start with the Covid 19 injections. . . . . These are not vaccines. These are nanoparticle injections. These nanoparticles are known to be toxic agents. In 2017, the nanoparticles are registered as duel-use weapons of biowarfare. So, the nanoparticles are weapons, and the sheriffs need to seize those weapons. That’s what needs to happen.”
Kingston says if the spread of nanoparticles is not stopped, it will eventually destroy all natural lifeforms on planet Earth. Yes–it is that bad.
Kingston has a Bible verse to make a profound point, and she reads, “This is talking about ‘The End of Days.’ The prophecy reads, ‘But woe to those who are pregnant and those who are nursing babies in those days. For those will be a time of tribulation such has not occurred since the beginning of creation, which God created until now and never will. Unless the Lord shortened those days, no life would have been saved but for the sake of the elect who he chose.’ This is talking about how God created all life forms perfectly. He created mankind perfectly in his image. There is now this other entity that is creating life. That’s synthetic biology and artificial intelligence. That’s what it is. . . . We have an opportunity to stop this.”
There is much more in the 1-hour and 5-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned biotech analyst Karen Kingston as she gives another update on the bioweapon mRNA/nanoparticle injections and why this “synthetic biology” needs to be stopped for 7.15.23.
This is the one-page summary letter to introduce sheriffs all over America to the larger five-page demand letter to pull the dangerous CV19 bioweapon/vax from the shelves in every county in America.
To look at data, documents and analysis on the CV19 bioweapon/vax containing deadly mRNA nanoparticles, go to the kingstonreport@substack.com.
More information is continuing to surface about the people behind the box office hit movie “Sound of Freedom.” As I wrote in my original critique of this film, the fact that this movie is becoming so popular on the Big Screen is proof that the “elite” are NOT censoring it, as so many in the Right Wing Christian alternative media are claiming. I received plenty of negative emails from Conservatives after my review of the Sound of Freedom film, because in the minds of so many “Conservatives” the child trafficking issue is only a “liberal” problem, and the child sex trafficking business, according to them, is all backed by the Bidens, who are the ones trying to stop the film from being seen. But new evidence is coming to light that indicates that not only do the wealthy child sex traffickers not mind if you go watch Sound of Freedom, but they are the ones who actually funded it. Billionaire John Paul DeJoria is listed as an “executive producer” of Sound of Freedom. He is a philanthropist who was invited by Bill Gates and Warren Buffet to become part of the Billionaire Giving Pledge which funded the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Another Billionaire philanthropist who allegedly help fund Sound of Freedom, is Mexican Carlos Slim. Even the Right Wing publication National File saw some issues with this association : “Why did Hunter Biden and Hillary Clinton’s Mexican Cartel Partner Carlos Slim Fund Sound of Freedom?” Others are also questioning the organization that received the donations from these Billionaire philanthropists to fund the film’s release into theaters, Angel Studios. Neal Harmon is the CEO of Angel Studios, and is part of the Mormon Church. He did his missionary service in Mexico. Some have linked the Mormons in Mexico as working with the cartels. Greg Reese just published a video today showing how Angel Studios is encouraging people to “Help Combat Child Trafficking” by linking to sources operated by the Polaris Project, which is linked to John Podesta and the Clintons, and actually funds child trafficking, allegedly bringing in over $150 billion annually for child trafficking.Read More…New Mexico Foster Parent Confesses Guilt of Sexually Abusing Children for Years but Does No Jail Time, 8-Year-Old Girl Awarded $485 MillionJuly 14, 2023 7:02 pm
As the movie “Sound of Freedom” is shown to packed out movie theaters across the U.S. to millions of people sitting in air conditioned theaters eating their popcorn, shaking their heads at the “horror of child sex trafficking” that is portrayed in poor countries like Columbia, tens of thousands of young children are being sexually abused and trafficked right here in our own borders every day, begging for help, with their voices falling on deaf ears. And it is all “legal,” because it is being done under the color of law in our nation’s child welfare system. One of those cases actually made the corporate news this week, but was obviously drowned out by all the hype behind the Sound of Freedom movie. A jury in New Mexico awarded $485 million to an 8-year-old female victim of Clarence Garcia, a 66-year-old foster parent in New Mexico who sexually abused the girl while she was in his care. As horrible as this crime was, Garcia had been sexually abusing young children in his care as far back as 1999 when he was licensed as a foster parent in New Mexico, and pleaded guilty to charges of sexually abusing six girls in his care in January this year (2023). But in spite of the fact that he admitted his crimes and was now a convicted pedophile, he was NOT sentenced to do any jail or prison time, but simply given probation, where he reportedly continued his crimes resulting in the conviction earlier this week of the 8-year-old girl.Read More…
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