GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $6.35 TO $1968.90
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.15 AT $24.80
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1973.55
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 24.95
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Bitcoin morning price:, $29,247 UP 62 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $29,310 UP 126 dollars
Platinum price closing $969.80 UP $6.05
Palladium price; $1295,00 UP $14.40
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,605.79 UP 17.23 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)
BRITISH GOLD: 1524.85 UP 1.80 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)
EURO GOLD: 1779.82 UP 2.90 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,962.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/25/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 07/27/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED 132 C SG AMERICAS 7
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 3
JPMorgan stopped 0/7 contracts.
FOR JULY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT: 7 NOTICES FOR 700 OZ or 0.02177 TONNES
total notices so far: 3282 contracts for 328,200 oz (10.208 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 26 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 130,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5095 for 25,475,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $6.35
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.15 AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 452.480 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 273 CONTRACTS TO 147,084 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.24 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG SIZED 734 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH . CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 341 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.24). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 973 CONTRACTS. WE HAD A HUGE 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 5.25 MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 700 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 135,000 QUEUE JUMP + 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR TODAY//NEW STANDING: 25.605 MILLION OZ + 5.25 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR: NEW TOTAL 30.855 MILLION OZ// // GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) GOOD NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (341 CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –186 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 days, total 16,776 contracts: OR 83.880 MILLION OZ (1048 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 83.880 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 83.880 MILLION OZ (LARGER THAN LAST MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 273 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.24 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 700 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 16.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 135,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP + 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK : 5.25 MILLION OZ): TOTAL NOW STANDING 25.605 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING + 5.25 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 30.855 MILLION OZ.///// .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 973 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GOOD 341//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION TO CONTAIN SILVER PRICE’S RISE. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (734) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE./
WE HAD 26 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 130,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 11,056 CONTRACTS TO 476.758 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED: 582 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 10,474 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $2.45 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05287 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 10.386 TONNES// + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 2487 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $2.45 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 6473 OI CONTRACTS (20.133 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4583 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 476,758
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6473 CONTRACTS WITH 11,056 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD 4583 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6473 CONTRACTS OR 20.133 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 2487 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4583 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (10,474) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6473 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05287 TONNE QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 10.386 TONNES ///// /3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION WITH HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION AND SPREADER LIQUIDATION TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE//4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2487 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 38,838 CONTRACTS OR 3,883,800 OZ OR 120.78 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2283 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 120.78 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 120.78/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.40% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 120.78 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 273 CONTRACTS OI TO 147,084 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 700 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 570 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 700 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 273 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 700 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 973 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 4.865 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.24 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.49 PTS OR 0.26% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 69.26 PTS OR 0.36% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 14.17 PTS OR 0.04% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.84 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1534 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1538 /Oil UP TO 78.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.75 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 11,056 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 476,176 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.45 ON TUESDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4583 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 4583 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4583 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 6473 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4583 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 11,056 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GOOD SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.45//TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 2487 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US TRYING TO CONTAIN OUR PRECIOUS METALS RISE IN PRICE. IT MAY BE TO NO AVAIL!!
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (10.386) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.386 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $2.45) //// BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 6473 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. THE TAS ISSUED TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO HAD SOME SPREADER COMEX LIQUIDATION TODAY AND TOGETHER WITH THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION YOU NO DOUBT HAVE THE REASON FOR THE HIGH OI COMEX LOSS.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 20.133 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.11974 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.05287 TONNES//TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY GOLD: 10.386 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $2.45.
WE HAD – REMOVED 582 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6473 CONTRACTS OR 647,300 OZ OR 20.133 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 280,826 fair
final gold volumes/yesterday 294,376 fair
//JULY 26/ FOR THE JULY 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 385.812 OZ JPM 12 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 32,009.849 oz ASAHAI |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 7 notice(s) 700 OZ 0.02177 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 57 contracts 5700 oz 0.1773 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 3282 notices 328200 OZ 10.208 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
1 dealer deposit:
i) Into ASAHI: 32,009.849 oz
total dealer deposits: 32,009.849 oz
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of JPM: 385.812 oz (12kilobars)
total withdrawals: 385.812 oz
Adjustments; 0/
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 64 contracts having GAINED 17 contracts. We had 0 contracts served on Tuesday. Thus we gained 17 contracts or an additional 1700 oz of gold will stand at the comex.
AUGUST LOST 38,947 contracts DOWN to 90,552 contracts. We have 3 more reading days before the big August contract delivery month.
SEPT gained 135 contracts to stand at 1005
We had 7 contracts filed for today representing 700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 7 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3282 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (64 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 7 x 100 oz per contract equals 333,900 OZ OR 10.386 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (3282) x 100 oz + (64) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (7) x 100 oz) which equals 333,900 oz standing OR 10.386 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 10.386 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,018,846.176 OZ 62,79 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,305,812.271 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,705,166.767 (364,9787 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,600,645.504 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,686,320 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 301.28 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 26
//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 344,601.607 oz BRINKS Delaware . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,750,945.200 oz HSBC |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 26 CONTRACT(S) (130,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 26 contracts (130,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5095 Contracts (25,475,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into HSBC: 1750,945.200 oz
total customer deposits: 1,750,945.200 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.331 million oz/278.575 million =49.91% of comex .//
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of Brinks 345,546.500 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 1055.107 oz
total: 344,601.607 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35.369 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 278.578 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 52 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 17 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 27 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 135,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN JULY,
AUGUST LOST 5 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 826
SEPT HAS A LOSS OF 2396 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 120,106
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 26 for 130,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 50,175 fair /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 54,656 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5095 x 5,000 oz = 25,475,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(52) and the number of notices served upon today 26 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month: 5095 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (52) – number of notices served upon today (26 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 25.605 million oz + 0.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS 5.25 MILLION OZ /NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 30.855 MILLION OZ..WE HAVE 35 MILLION OZ OF REGISTERED SILVER AT THE COMEX//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES
JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES
JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
GLD INVENTORY: 919.00 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/
JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 452.480 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
end
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO
END
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Pam and Russ Martens..
Pam and Russ Martens: Trillions in uninsured deposits are threat to Wall Street mega-banks
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-07-25 12:05Section: Daily Dispatches
By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Tuesday, July 25, 2023
In June, Reuters reported that JPMorgan Chase was expanding the reach of its commercial bank into two additional foreign countries — Israel and Singapore — bringing its foreign commercial bank presence to a total of 28 countries. Those plans could add billions of dollars more to its already problematic uninsured deposits.
Why federal regulators are allowing JPMorgan Chase to continue to expand, despite its admitting to five criminal felony counts since 2014 and currently facing three lawsuits in federal court for facilitating Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking of underage girls, is drawing attention from watchdogs.
According to its regulatory filings, as of December 31, 2022, JPMorgan Chase Bank held $2.015 trillion in deposits in domestic offices, of which $1.058 trillion were uninsured. It also held another $418.9 billion in deposits in foreign offices, which were also not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC). That brought its uninsured deposits as of year-end to a total of $1.48 trillion or 60% of its total deposits.
Under federal statute, the deposits held by U.S. banks that are located on foreign soil are not insured by the FDIC. Depositors in the Cayman Islands branch of Silicon Valley Bank found that out the hard way when their deposits were seized by the FDIC after the bank failed in March.
Deposits in domestic bank offices in the U.S. that exceed $250,000 per depositor per bank are also not insured by the FDIC. …
… For the remainder of the commentary:
END
Chinese citizens are on a tear as they buy 555 tonnes of gold in the first half of this year
(zerohedge)
China’s gold consumption reaches 555 tons in first half of 2023, up 16.4%
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-07-25 21:12Section: Daily Dispatches
From Global Times, Beijing
Tuesday, July 25, 2023
China consumed 554.88 tons of gold in the first half of 2023, up 16.37% year-on-year, data from the China Gold Association showed today, as Chinese citizens’ income continues to rise steadily.
The “gold rush” is partly fueled by the investors’ growing risk aversion in buying equities and bonds, over concerns about volatile global financial environment, which is exacerbated by the U.S. bank financial crisis and the U.S. debt ceiling issue.
Among gold consumption, the purchase of gold bars jumped 30.12% year-on-year to 146 tons in the first six months, while that of gold jewelry reached 368 tons, up 14.82% from the same period last year. Gold used for industrial and other purposes declined 7.65% to 40 tons, the data showed.
“With the normalization and revival of the economy, China’s gold consumption shows an overall momentum of rapid recovery,” a statement on the website of the CGA said. Consumption of gold, silver, and jewelry led the gains of individual retail category in the first half this year, which continues to make contribution to fueling the economy, the statement noted. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202307/1295007.shtml
END
China is now selling dollars to support the yuan value
(Reuters)
China state banks sell dollars to support yuan, sources tell Reuters
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-07-25 21:19Section: Daily Dispatches
From Reuters
Tuesday, July 25, 2023
China’s major state-owned banks were seen selling U.S. dollars to buy yuan in both onshore and offshore spot markets today in early Asian trade, three people with direct knowledge of the matter said, moves aimed at supporting the Chinese currency.
China’s state banks usually trade on behalf of the central bank in the country’s foreign exchange market, but they can also trade on their own behalf.
The dollar sales come after China’s top leaders pledged on Monday to step up policy support for the economy amid a tortuous post-COVID-19 recovery, focusing on boosting domestic demand and signalling more stimulus steps.
Policymakers also said China will keep the yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels, and vowed to invigorate the capital market and restore investor confidence.
“It is interesting that the Politburo mentioned FX stability in the statement, for the first time in recent years,” analysts at HSBC said in a note. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
For your interest…
How right-wing news powers the ‘gold IRA’ industry
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-07-25 21:30Section: Daily Dispatches
Yes, the gold IRA business has some grifters, but not nearly as many as reside in central banking. The gold world awaits the Washington Post’s first critical question directed to a central banker. A few such questions might be suggested by the documents compiled and summarized here:
* * *
By Jeremy B. Merrill and Hanna Kozlowska
The Washington Post
Tuesday, July 26, 2023
Dedicated viewers of Fox News are likely familiar with Lear Capital, a Los Angeles company that sells gold and silver coins. In recent years the company’s ads have been a constant presence on Fox airwaves, warning viewers to protect their retirement savings from a looming “pension crisis” and “dollar collapse.”
One such ad caught the attention of Terry White, a disabled retiree from New York. In 2018 White invested $174,000 in the coins, according to a lawsuit by the New York attorney general — only to learn later that Lear charged a 33% commission.
Over several transactions, White, 70, lost nearly $80,000, putting an “enormous strain” on his finances, said his wife, Jeanne, who blames Fox for their predicament: “They’re negligent,” she said. A regretful White said he thought Fox “wouldn’t take a commercial like that unless it was legitimate.”
While the legitimacy of the gold retirement investment industry is the subject of numerous lawsuits — including allegations of fraud by federal and state regulators against Lear and other companies — its advertising has become a mainstay of right-wing media. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/25/gold-ira-conservative-media/
END
In China’s bilateral trade, it exceeded trading in dollars for the first time ever
(Nikkei Asia/Toyko)
Yuan exceeds dollar in China’s bilateral trade for first time
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-07-25 22:23Section: Daily Dispatches
From Nikkei Asia, Tokyo
Tuesday, July 25, 2023
The yuan was used in 49% of China’s cross-border transactions last quarter, topping the dollar for the first time, a Nikkei analysis shows, mainly due to a more open capital market and more yuan-based trade with Russia.
Nikkei looked at international trade by companies, individuals, and investors based on currency, using statistical data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China. Nikkei’s compilation does not include yuan-based settlements for trades and capital transactions that do not involve China as a counterparty.
The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, better known as SWIFT, reports that as of June the dollar’s share is the largest globally at 42.02%, including trades between countries other than China. The yuan represented 2.77% and ranked fifth overall after the euro, the U.K. pound, and the Japanese yen.
The yuan’s share of global payments remains small compared with the size of China’s economy, but is up from 1.81% about five years ago. Bilateral payments, backed by China’s economic influence, have gradually expanded its foothold. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Your most important read for the day. The bankers are massively short and to boot they cannot receive the much needed silver from Mexico as its largest mine is in a labour strike. That removes around 5 million oz per month from the equation
(Ted Butler//article in full)
Ted Butler: More on the silver Code Red
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-07-25 22:40Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ted Butler
Butler Research, Jupiter, Florida
via SilverSeek.com
Tuesday, July 25, 2023
Last week I made public an edited version of the more extensive weekly review sent to subscribers earlier. As previously stated, I believe there is an emergency in the Comex silver market based upon official data indicating a massive increase in futures positioning of more than 130 million ounces (26,000 contracts) as reported in the new commitment of traders report as of July 21.
While I tried my best to rely on the hard data and offer the most reasonable interpretation of that data, this is very complicated stuff, so it’s understandable that things may not seem as clear to others as they are to me
I’m sure many (if not most) are unclear on what I mean by a market emergency, the likes of which hasn’t existed in the Comex silver market since the Hunt Brothers emergency of 1980, 43 years ago.
So let me use instead a more recent market emergency — that of the London Metals Exchange nickel market of March 2022, as a contemporary example of what I’m talking about. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
https://silverseek.com/article/more-silver-code-red
END
More on the Silver Code Red
July 25, 2023
Ted Butler
Butler Research
Last week, I made public an edited version of the more extensive weekly review sent to subscribers earlier. As previously stated, I believe there is a current market emergency in the COMEX silver market based upon official data indicating a massive increase in futures positioning of more than 130 million oz (26,000 contracts) as reported in the new COT report, as of July 21.
https://silverseek.com/article/code-red
While I tried my best to rely on the hard data and offer the most reasonable interpretation of that data, this is very complicated stuff, so it’s understandable that things may not seem as clear to others as they are to me. I’m sure many (if not most) are unclear on what I mean by a market emergency, the likes of which hasn’t existed in the COMEX silver market since the Hunt Bros emergency of 1980, 43 years ago. So, let me use instead a more recent market emergency – that of the LME nickel market of March 2022, as a contemporary example of what I’m talking about. Here’s a good run down of what transpired at the time.
https://www.ndtv.com/business/18-minutes-of-trading-chaos-which-broke-the-nickel-market-2824194
It is no exaggeration to claim that the LME nickel disaster is basically the same, in many respects, as to what I see ahead for the COMEX silver market. The nickel market was in a physical shortage condition at that time, same as the wholesale physical silver market is today. The long and short derivatives position in LME nickel grew to unreasonable levels, with a noted concentrated short position held by a large Chinese trader, identified as “Mr. Big Shot”. Just this past week, the COMEX silver futures market had a massive increase in total derivatives positions and the concentrated short position also grew massively as well.
In the end, the LME nickel shorts were no longer able to cap and contain prices and the price suddenly exploded – doubling and tripling in a matter of hours. This led to the LME busting trades, essentially, cancelling and reneging on contractual obligations, setting off an avalanche of lawsuits and instantly trashing the reputation of an exchange that existed for 150 years. Of course, I wrote about it at the time, making the clear analogy to what I saw coming in COMEX silver.
https://silverseek.com/article/real-lesson-lme-nickel
I know many think that I may be going overboard in describing what I see ahead for silver, but an objective review of what took place in LME nickel last year would seem to provide ample proof for what could happen in COMEX silver. While the basics in both markets seem identical – a physical shortage, coupled with a massive derivatives position (including extreme concentration on the short side) – there’s even more to be said about the coming COMEX silver emergency.
For one thing, I’m not aware of any prior warnings to the LME or the UK regulators about what turned out to be the nickel market emergency/debacle beforehand, whereas I know such warnings have been made in the coming COMEX silver market emergency (because I’ve made many such warnings). I send all my articles to all the commissioners at the CFTC, along with key officials at the Market Oversight and Enforcement Divisions, along with the CEO of the CME Group, Inc. (owner/operator of the COMEX). If the federal commodities regulator, as well as the designated industry self-regulator, are unconcerned about my warnings, it would appear reasonable that both should explain why or take immediate measures to try to head off the coming market emergency. The last thing I would want to do is cry “fire” in a crowded theater for no good reason.
Further, the LME nickel debacle affected very few market participants, whereas silver investors/participants everywhere, in the many millions worldwide, are affected by the ongoing COMEX silver manipulation and the market emergency I see dead ahead. This raises the stakes immeasurably for everyone, particularly the regulators.
Most concerning of all, in the LME nickel default and debacle, the principal player was the big Chinese speculative short seller, greatly assisted by the big banks, most notably, JPMorgan; whereas in the coming COMEX debacle, the banks appear to be directly positioned as the big silver short sellers. This has been the case for 40 years and despite billions of dollars of fines, settlements against too many banks to count and now jail time for bank employees – all for manipulating silver, gold and other precious metals prices on the COMEX and NYMEX – the banks still appear to be the big short sellers to this day.
As expected, the COT report for July 21 fully-confirmed extreme and even record commercial selling, particularly in terms of concentrated and collusive new shorting by the 4 and 8 largest COMEX commercial shorts. The 8 largest commercial shorts sold short more silver contracts, 12,100 (60 million oz), in one week than they had in years and maybe ever. I had made the case that the big commercials would not short big again (as a result of the big 4 not shorting on the $6 silver rally from March to May), but, clearly, those expectations were wrong.
Therefore, a reasonable observer would have to ask what was the motivation for the record one-week commercial selling. With silver so cheap in price in the face of a documented physical shortage and with strong technical buy signals (moving average penetrations) generated in the reporting week, the buyers, be they driven by supply/demand fundamentals or technical signals, need no explanation. It is the aggressive selling by the COMEX commercials (banks) that requires explanation and only one explanation is possible, namely, the commercials sold so aggressively to prevent an even larger run up in price that would have triggered massive new buying in silver away from the COMEX.
What I just described is nothing but in-your-face price manipulation – selling with the sole intent to prevent silver prices from increasing. There can be no other explanation. The fact that COMEX silver is supposed to be a regulated market, by not just the primary federal regulator, the CFTC, as well as the designated self-regulator, the CME Group, and both regulators sit by and do nothing but act as the three blind, deaf and dumb monkeys is nothing less than a national disgrace. The CFTC and CME Group can continue to disgrace themselves, but that’s their choice, as I do intend to press the issue to the best of my abilities.
Worst of all, the massive commercial selling this week is what creates the Code Red market emergency in COMEX silver, as there is no way that I can see that the massive positioning gets resolved without extreme price violence. The responsibility for the disorderly market conditions that I now see as being “baked” into COMEX silver as a result of the massive one-week surge in commercial selling, lies squarely on the CFTC and the CME Group.
I have been after both regulators for the better part of 40 years to address the ongoing COMEX silver manipulation and despite having to contend with their incompetence and malfeasance for all this time, I never thought both regulators would fail to act so irresponsibly as they are now. Neither would dare to openly debate the allegations of a market emergency, the avoidance of which couldn’t be of more significance to each.
What do I mean by a Code Red market emergency? A market condition that must resolve itself in disorderly prices. Those disorderly prices might include a blast to the downside, as the collusive commercials rig prices lower to induce the recent buyers to bail out, before the physical shortage conditions cause prices to soar. Or, the attempt to rig prices lower may fail and silver prices surge without a massive decline first.
In any event, the real blame for the disorderly prices ahead are the regulators, both the CFTC and the CME Group, which fail to address or even acknowledge the blatant manipulation in COMEX silver. I do intend to push both to do the right thing, but based upon their track records, they will be reluctant to address this serious issue. The one saving grace for higher silver prices is the physical shortage, which grows more pronounced daily. Surely, continued suppressed prices will not resolve the physical shortage, regardless of continued regulatory failure.
Ted Butler
July 24, 2023
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/SILVER
END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//RICE
The rush is on to buy rise
(zerohedge)
“So It Begins”: US Supermarkets Hit With Buying Panic As India Bans Rice Exports
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 07:45 PM
The decision by India to ban certain rice exports has sparked panic buying at supermarkets across the US. Videos circulating on social media show the staple food is flying off the shelves as high demand depletes supplies amid concerns of a global shortage. Some supermarkets have responded by implementing purchase limits, while others have hiked prices. The scenes below should remind readers of the panic buying days during Covid.
Indians being Indians, hoarding started. Big queue outside Patel Brothers, Dallas area after India banned exporting non Basmati rice… pic.twitter.com/8EgvwFWOKo— Aryabhata | ஆர்யபட்டா
(@Aryabhata99) July 21, 2023
Rice export stopped from India and massive panick hit the Indians in USA. Hoarding has started across the states. There has been multiple food shortages here, hoping rice shortage doesn’t get added to the list. pic.twitter.com/vdP6NBwrN6— The Thinking Hat
(@ThinkinHashtag) July 21, 2023
So it begins. India has banned some rice exports and now people are panic buying up rice. pic.twitter.com/ujpm66ER3n— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) July 23, 2023
Apparently the ban is for non Basmati rice. So Tamil and Telugu community would be most impacted as they consume Sona Masoori rice. They started hoarding as if rice won’t be available anywhere else, ever. The fact is that Thai, Chinese, Japanese, Mexican and several immigrants in… pic.twitter.com/s8fRIeubMI— Mr B (@maddyb65) July 22, 2023
#MCTrends | The Indian government’s ban on the export of non-basmati rice has triggered panic buying in the US, with many departmental stores reporting empty shelves and putting limits on the number of rice bags customers can buy.@AnkitaSengupta_ reports
… pic.twitter.com/GgzonuW1tU— Moneycontrol (@moneycontrolcom) July 25, 2023
India’s export restriction applies to shipments of non-basmati white rice. The move is to contain food inflation by ensuring ample domestic supplies, as the El Niño weather pattern heavily impacts farm production. India is the largest exporter of rice.
We provided readers with enough understanding that rice, which is critical to the diets of billions of people worldwide, was headed for a shortage:
- Sept. 2022: The Stage Is Being Set For A Massive Global Rice Shortage
- May 2023: Global Rice Shortage Looms, Set To Be The Biggest In Decades
- May 2023: Thai Rice Crop In Crosshairs Of El Nino As Farmers Are Warned About Water Shortages
“India’s export ban needs to be seen in the light of this ominous setting,” Peter Timmer, Professor Emeritus at Harvard University, told Bloomberg. He has studied food security for decades and warned:
“There is considerably more reason for concern now that rice prices in Asia could spiral out of control pretty quickly.”
The president of the world’s largest rice shipper had this to say:
“In the short term, the price is definitely going up, it’s just a question of how high up it will go.
“And it will be a spike, it’s not going to be increasing incrementally,” said Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
Bloomberg data shows Thailand White Rice 5% is around $534 per ton, nearly a two-year high, and headed for a possible break above $579, which would mean prices would be back to 2012 highs.
India’s latest move has sparked panic buying of the grain.
end
ORANGE JUICE
Global shortage of orange juice. Florida supplies are low…
(zerohedge)
Orange Juice Squeezes To New Record High Amid Intensifying Fears Of Global Shortage
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 06:55 AM
On Monday, orange juice futures rocketed to an all-time high due to global supply concerns among agricultural traders. The citrus greening disease continues to affect Florida and is spreading in Brazil — both regions are top producers, and a potential production loss from these areas could significantly tighten global supplies.
A new report from Bloomberg shows Brazil’s Citrosuco, one of the world’s top orange juice producers, has considered declaring a force majeure on supplies to clients after the crop disease and extensive rainfall damaged citrus groves.
In a July 17 letter sent to clients and seen by Bloomberg, the company said it was being “severely affected” by greening disease and rain that flooded farms. It added it won’t be able to ensure supplies at the volumes and prices previously agreed. Citrosuco confirmed the contents of the letter, which it said was sent as a warning to some clients who had contracts for delivery earlier this year. In a statement to Bloomberg on Monday, the company added the communication was part of specific commercial negotiations.
While the letter stated “supply performance is currently prevented by force majeure, until further notice,” the company said it had not taken the actual legal step associated with invoking force majeure, a clause companies usually enforce when an unforeseen event, such as a fire or natural disaster, prevents them from complying with a contract. –Bloomberg
Citrosuco’s warning was enough to send orange juice futures in New York above the $3 handle per pound, a new record high.
Data from the US Department of Agriculture and Citrosuco show Brazil exports 80% of its orange juice. Consumers who purchased OJ at US supermarkets have increasingly noticed labels on bottles that read: “Contains orange juice from US and Brazil.”
This is because Florida supplies are low and exports from Brazil have soared to new highs.
“The proliferation of disease continues to be great in Florida and the chance of a large comeback in production for the new season is limited,” Judy Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting, told Bloomberg.
Ganes said, “There are signs that disease is more prevalent in Brazil, too, which is also facing long-term problems with their crops.”
Even though egg prices have crashed, breakfast inflation remains elevated for yet another reason.
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
What an absolute mess! Bankman Fried is one strange dude
(zerohedge)
Bankman-Fried Agrees To Gag Order After “Star Witness” Ellison’s Diary Was Leaked To Press Last Week
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 06:25 PM
It looks as though it may be time to re-up some of those Democratic donations for Sam Bankman-Fried, because there’s at least one judge out there that isn’t amused with his antics.
The former FTX founder has now agreed to a gag order that will “largely” prevent him from discussing his case publicly, Bloomberg wrote this week. Prosecutors in the case had accused Bankman-Fried of trying to discredit Caroline Ellison, who formerly lived with and worked with Bankman-Fried in the Bahamas.
US District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan said this week he was going to deal with the “adequacy and continuation” of SBF’s bail conditions. As Bloomberg wrote, this means SBF’s “current house arrest could be in jeopardy while he awaits trial on criminal fraud charges”.
Bankman-Fried will appear in court on Wednesday for a hearing.
Judge Kaplan has already concerned himself with Bankman-Fried’s bail restrictions, in the past warning that SBF needed to “rein in his use of encrypted messaging apps and VPN programs,” the report says.
The order was filed on Monday and and bans SBF and “other parties” from discussing anything with the press that “could interfere with a fair trial”. Specifically, Bloomberg writes that this could include “credibility of witnesses, information that isn’t admissible at trial and anything that could influence public opinion about the case”.
The “star witness” in the case has already pleaded guilty to fraud in a deal with prosecutors, the report says. Not only did she run Alameda Research, an offshoot of FTX, she also dated Bankman-Fried at one point.
The scrutiny this week came after a story broke last week in The New York Times about Ellison’s diary, detailing her “ambivalence” about her role at Alameda and her relationship with Bankman-Fried.
Prosecutors charged that SBF had leaked the material to “cast Ellison in a poor light, and advance his defense through the press.”
In a note filed Sunday, Bankman-Fried’s lawyers said that he had shared documents “in an effort to give his side of the story about topics that have already been reported in the media.” They argued that FTX’s new CEO “attacked” Bankman-Fried publicly while they “stood silent” and did nothing.
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1534
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1538
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.49 PTS OR 0.26%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 69.26 PTS OR 0.36%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 14.17 PTS OR 0.04%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 100.87 EURO RISES TO 1.1073 UP 23 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.442 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 140.61/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.4295***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.081*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.477…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.691
3j Gold at $1972.45 silver at: 24.74 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 11 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.02//
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 141.48// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO 0.466% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8619 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9547 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.890 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.947 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.864 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.95…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 1 BASIS PTS AT 4.3180
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Dip Ahead Of Fed’s “Last Rate Hike” As Dow Braces For 13 Straight Gains
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 07:57 AM
US futures are lower as we enter the “last hike” day, with European stocks slumping after ugly results from LVMH (which tumbled 4.5%) and Asian markets also closing in the red as investors brace for more tightening from the Federal Reserve, even as results from some of the biggest European and American companies hinted at slowing economy and declining earnings. As of 7:30am ET, S&P eminis dropped 0.1% at 4,589 while Nasdaq futures were down 0.3%, pressured by disappointing results from some top constituents.
The market is pricing in just a 0.76% move after today’s FOMC, the lowest implied move on a Fed day since at least 2021.
Meanwhile, solid earnings from Boeing have propelled the Dow higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 12 days straight — the longest winning run in over six years — and a 13th day of gains will extend the record to the longest since 1987.
Treasury yields were 1-2bps lower; the USD was weaker and commodities are mixed with base metals leading and Ags lagging. Today, focus will be Fed’s decision at 2pm ET and Powell’s Press Conference at 2.30pm ET. A 25bp hike is fully priced in, with consensus expecting (i) little meaningful changes to the post-meeting statement and (ii) Powell pointing to the June dots as the best guide as to the forward direction of policy (our full preview is here).
In premarket trading, Microsoft fell 4%, having posted tepid sales growth and amid missed Azure growth guidance while Snap sank 19%. Analysts, however, note that the unit’s deceleration is starting to moderate and they were positive about demand for the company’s new artificial intelligence-powered products and services. Chipmakers also mostly lost ground, after a subpar outlook from Texas Instruments, the biggest maker of analog semiconductors, indicated a demand slump for key types of electronics. On the other end, GOOGL jumped 7% after posting forecast-beating revenue. Meta rose ahead of its own report later Wednesday. Overall, tech earnings so far are still largely in line with expectation. Here are the most notable premarket movers:
- Boeing rose 3% after reporting $2.58 billion in free cash flow in the second quarter, surprising investors as a flurry of jet deliveries and customer deposits helped overcome the financial strain from supplier glitches.
- Dish Network jumps as much as 15% in premarket trading on Wednesday after Bloomberg News reported that the company said it will start selling its premium wireless service on Amazon.com later this week.
- PacWest jumped as much as 39% following news that it’s being bought by smaller rival Banc of California in a rescue deal aimed at boosting confidence in the lenders. Banc of California rose as much as 16%.
- Snap shares are sinking 19% after the social media company reported its second-quarter results and gave a revenue outlook that was weaker than expected. Analysts note that the company is still contending with weakness in its ads business as it looks to invest in new AI tools.
- Teladoc rises 6.1% after the virtual healthcare provider raised the bottom end of its revenue forecast range for the full year, with analysts saying that the firm’s control over costs is bearing fruit even as it faces a tough backdrop.
- Texas Instruments shares drop 3.5% after the chipmaker provided a forecast for the third quarter that left analysts disappointed, with some saying it overshadowed the second-quarter beat.
- Wells Fargo shares gain 2.6% in premarket trading after the lender announced plans to repurchase as much as $30 billion of its shares and boosted its dividend. Piper Sandler saw the authorization of the buyback as an “important show of strength” relating to the capital position of Wells Fargo, though Citi didn’t see any incremental information in the news.
Here is a summary of the most notable earnings reports:
- Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q2 2023 (USD): EPS 1.44 (exp. 1.34), Revenue 74.60bln (exp. 72.82bln). +6.9% in pre-market trade
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 2.69 (exp. 2.55), Revenue 56.2bln (exp. 55.47bln); soft Q1 guidance. -4.1% in pre-market trade
- Snap Inc (SNAP) Q2 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.02 (exp. -0.04), Revenue 1.07bln (exp. 1.05bln) -18% in pre-market trade
- Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) Q2 2023 (USD): EPS 1.87 (exp. 1.76), Revenue 4.53bln (exp. 4.36bln) -3.8% in pre-market trade
- Visa Inc (V) Q3 2023 (USD): EPS 2.16 (exp. 2.12), Revenue 8.1bln (exp. 8.06bln) -0.3% in pre-market trade
- X Corp (formerly Twitter) is offering incentives on certain ad formats within the US and UK, via WSJ citing emails; additionally, has warned brands that verified status could be lost if certain spending thresholds are not met.
Fahad Kamal, chief investment officer at SG Kleinwort Hambros Bank, noted that Wednesday’s market pullback comes after a broad stretch of gains, with the S&P 500 less than 5% off record highs. “The bigger picture is that this quarter is probably the low point for earnings, this year will end up positive both in Europe and US,” he said, while cautioning of risks from “the effect of central bank policy tightening.”
“We are going to see some deceleration in corporate earnings, deceleration in economic growth, softening of demand, all of this will have a higher impact on equities,” Aarthi Chandrasekaran, director of investments at Shuaa Asset Management said on Bloomberg TV. Still, “the US economy is weakening but it’s not weakening enough to price in a full rate cut next year,” she said. Still, despite some disappointments, roughly 80% of US companies have thus far beaten profit estimates, as have half of European names. This is largely due to a steady trimming of expectations before the season kicked off.
Later on Wednesday, the Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, and swap contracts are factoring some additional rate increases by year-end as well. The expected Fed rate increase would be 11th since March 2022, cycle in which rates were raised at each scheduled meeting until last month’s, when policy makers said a pause was warranted to assess the impact of their cumulative actions on the economy and banking system. The European Central Bank should also deliver a quarter-point increase on Thursday. With those hikes baked in, investors will focus on signals on how much more policy tightening might be warranted (full preview here).
European stocks are lower and set to snap a six-session win streak after a flurry of corporate earnings dented investor sentiment. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.5%, led lower by the luxury-goods sector as LVMH tumbled as much as 4.5% after Europe’s biggest company provided further evidence of a slowdown in spending by US wealthy consumers. Miners are also under pressure after Rio Tinto cut its dividend following a fall in first-half profit. Here are the most notable European movers:
- Rolls-Royce shares rose as much as 25% to their highest level since March 2020 after the engine maker boosted its adjusted operating profit guidance for the year as its turnaround begins to bear fruit
- BAT shares gained as much as 3.4% after the tobacco company reaffirmed its forecast for the year, which was in line with last month’s update and reassured investors given the tough backdrop
- Stellantis shares rise as much as 2.9% after the carmaker reported first-half results that analysts say were strong and above consensus across the board
- RWE shares climbed as much as 3%, the most since April, after it boosted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year. Morgan Stanley says the increase will likely trigger significant EPS upgrades
- Just EatTakeaway shares rally as much as 10% after the online food delivery company’s adjusted Ebitda for the first half beat estimates. Analysts praised the strong performance in its European markets
- Verallia gains as much as 11%, most in more than a year, after the French maker of glass bottles raised its earnings guidance. Citi says consensus earnings estimates should increase by double-digits
- Worldline shares rise as much as 6% after the payments company reported a second-quarter revenue and margins beat, with analysts noting the strength in the key Merchant Services business
- LVMH shares fell over 4.5% at the start of trading in Paris after the French luxury behemoth reported second-quarter revenue that provided further evidence of a slowdown in spending by wealthy US consumers
- Hexagon shares fall as much as 8.4% after the Swedish industrial software group’s free cash flow and Ebit came in below analyst expectations
- Lloyds falls as much as 5.2% after the UK lender booked additional loan-loss impairments. The bank’s upgraded loan margins were likely already in consensus estimates, analysts say
- Danone falls as much as 3.4%, most since May 9, after reporting like-for-like sales for the second quarter that beat the average estimate, with analysts saying more progress may be needed in 2H
- Porsche shares fell as much as 2.5% after the German luxury sports-car maker reported first-half sales that missed estimates. The results raise concerns about automotive pricing, according to Morgan Stanley
Earlier in the session, Asia’s key stock gauge snapped a two-day wining run as investors trimmed their positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outcome, while Chinese stocks declined after Tuesday’s rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.3% with markets in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong leading the losses. Stocks in Australia extended gains after consumer prices rose at a slower than expected pace for the three months ended June, fueling bets for a continued pause by the Reserve Bank next week.
The Fed is poised to hike interest rates by another 25 basis points, with investors keeping an eye on commentary by Chairman Jerome Powell. Asian stocks have, on average, reacted positively after a rate hike in 10 of the previous instances, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. Stocks in Asia have generally held their gains this month, buoyed by the receding odds of a recession in the US as well as China’s pivot toward a more friendly approach to the private sector and pledge of support for the economy.
Chinese stocks in Hong Kong fell after Tuesday’s surge as investors await more concrete policy decisions by Beijing following the politburo meeting. Policymakers have signaled that they intend to ease monetary policies and boost property markets. “It is really important that in the coming days and weeks, we see continued strong messages coming from different parts of the government,” Winnie Wu, China equity strategist at BofA Securities told Bloomberg Television in an interview.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the mood indecisive as softer Services PPI data from Japan added to the second-guessing surrounding this week’s BoJ meeting. ASX 200 outperformed with gains led by the mining industry and the top-weighted financials sector, while participants also reflected on the mostly softer-than-expected inflation data which showed headline CPI Q/Q was at its slowest pace of increase since 2021. Key stock gauges in India snapped a two-day losing run to outpace most regional peers Wednesday, boosted by gains in index heavyweights Reliance Industries, ITC, and Larsen & Toubro. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.5% to 66,707.20 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by the same magnitude. Larsen & Toubro closed at record high after better-than-expected first quarter earnings and announcing a $1.2 billion buyback plan. The infrastructure company’s results gave boost to stocks of its peers as well with BSE Capital Goods index rising 1.6%. Reliance Industries, which contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, rose 1.6% after Financial Times reported that QIA is mulling investment in company’s retail unit. Out of 31 shares in the Sensex index, 19 rose and 11 fell, while 1 was unchanged
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed. The euro rose as much as 0.2% against the US dollar to 1.1078, halting a six-day streak of declines. It also rose as much as 0.2% against the pound to 0.8586. The pound was little changed against the US dollar at around $1.29, while it weakened slightly against the euro. The Australian dollar declined as much as 0.9% to 0.6731 before trimming that drop after slower-than-expected inflation in the last quarter strengthened bets for the Reserve Bank to pause again next week. USD/JPY fell 0.5% to 140.24, heading for a third day of declines. One-week risk-reversals for dollar-yen, a gauge of the expected direction, fell to the lowest level since early March. The Aussie is the worst performer among the G-10s, falling 0.4% versus the greenback after Australian CPI slowed more than expected. The yen is the strongest.
Treasuries edged higher and yields are mixed as short- dated Treasury yields edged lower and 10-year yields were little changed to begin the US session focused on a Fed rate decision at 2pm New York time. Yields are within 1bp of closing levels from Tuesday, when most tenors traded at their highest levels in more than a week as expectations for another rate increase this year after July edged higher. Euro-area yields rose across the curve. The Treasury supply cycle pauses for Fed decision, is set to conclude Thursday with $35b 7-year auction. A 25bp increase in the fed funds band to 5.25%-5.5% is fully priced into swap contracts, along with about half of an additional 25bp hike by year-end.
In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI falling 0.7% to trade near $79.10. Spot gold rises 0.3%.
Bitcoin is relatively contained and resides well within, but at the lower-end, of Monday’s $28842 to $30342 range. Thus far, specific drivers have been a touch limited with markets generally focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting and Powell’s presser.
Looking to the day ahead now, the main highlight will be the Fed’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise, data releases include US new home sales for June and the Euro Area M3 money supply for June. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Meta, Coca-Cola, Union Pacific, Boeing and AT&T.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,595.00
- MXAP up 0.1% to 168.69
- MXAPJ little changed at 533.11
- Nikkei little changed at 32,668.34
- Topix down 0.1% to 2,283.09
- Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 19,365.14
- Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,223.03
- Sensex up 0.7% to 66,797.58
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 7,402.01
- Kospi down 1.7% to 2,592.36
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 465.75
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.44%
- Euro up 0.1% to $1.1068
- Brent Futures down 0.6% to $83.17/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,971.80
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.19% to 101.16
Top Overnight News
- Australian inflation slowed more than expected in the second quarter thanks to falls in the cost of domestic holidays and petrol, suggesting less pressure for another hike in interest rates and sending the local dollar sharply lower. RTRS
- Japan’s services PPI in June cools by more than anticipated, coming in at +1.2% (down from +1.7% in May and below the Street’s +1.5% forecast). BBG
- Ant plans to break off some non-core operations as it prepares to revive a Hong Kong IPO, people familiar said. It may strip out blockchain, database management services and overseas units when it applies for a financial holding license in China. An IPO attempt may come after 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence said. BBG
- Deutsche Bank’s fixed-income traders outperformed their Wall Street peers in the second quarter, with CFO James von Moltke noting there was no concentrated or unusual gain. The lender gave slightly more positive 2023 revenue guidance, but higher-than-expected expenses overshadowed results. BBG
- Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has said NatWest was “wrong” in its treatment of Nigel Farage and that its chief executive “had to resign” after its private bank Coutts refused the former Brexit party leader a bank account. Alison Rose stepped down on Wednesday after admitting to the inaccurate briefing of a BBC journalist about the closure of Farage’s account, a decision that Sir Keir described as “fairly straightforward” in an interview on BBC Radio 5 Live. FT
- Joe Lewis, the billionaire real estate investor and owner of Tottenham Hotspur football club, has been charged over multiple alleged instances of insider trading, US prosecutors said on Tuesday. The 86-year-old, who is one of Britain’s richest men, is accused of tipping off employees, associates, friends and romantic interests with non-public information about companies in which he had invested, and lending some of them hundreds of thousands of dollars to trade on the knowledge. FT
- We expect a hike today to 5.25-5.5% to be the last of the cycle. But on a probability-weighted basis, our Fed views remain more hawkish than market pricing. This reflects both our lower probability of recession and our expectations that the threshold for rate cuts will be fairly high and that cuts will be gradual. We expect cuts to start in 2024Q2, to proceed at 25bp per quarter, and to end with the funds rate at 3-3.25%, above the FOMC’s 2.5% longer run dot. GIR
- Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is sharply cutting the size of his presidential campaign staff, reducing by more than one-third a payroll that had swelled to more than 90 people in his first two months as a candidate, according to four people with knowledge of the decision. NYT
- BANC (Banc of California) after the close said it will purchase PACW (PacWest), a deal that was first reported on by the WSJ during trading on Tuesday (PacWest stockholders will receive 0.6569 of a share of Banc of California). WSJ
A More detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed with most bourses lacking firm direction heading into the looming major central bank policy decisions beginning with the FOMC later today. ASX 200 outperformed with gains led by the mining industry and the top-weighted financials sector, while participants also reflected on the mostly softer-than-expected inflation data which showed headline CPI Q/Q was at its slowest pace of increase since 2021.Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the mood indecisive as softer Services PPI data from Japan added to the second-guessing surrounding this week’s BoJ meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were weaker after the prior day’s stimulus boost lost steam but with downside limited owing to wide expectations for further support measures and after the PBoC upped its liquidity efforts, while China also replaced the head of its central bank amid the increasing challenges facing its economy.
Top Asian news
- US Secretary of State Blinken said he expects to work well with new Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, while it was separately reported that Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said he wants to closely communicate on various levels with China including with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
- Japan maintains its overall view on the economy and says it is “recovering moderately”; Japan raises its view on business sentiment in July for the first time in 7 months.
- Japanese Gov’t official, citing BoJ’s Ueda, says market sentiment continues to improve. Adds, long-term yield rate remains stable under YCC. USD/JPY is slightly volatile partly due to rate differentials. To maintain an accommodative monetary environment for firms.
- China is said to be mulling easing proposed rules that require foreign office equipment makers operating in the country to transfer key product technology to China, according to Nikkei sources.
European bourses are primarily in the red but with some more mixed performance, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%; action which comes after numerous key earnings incl. LVMH, -4.4% which is weighing on the Euro Stoxx 50 & CAC 40 -1.4%. Sectors are largely reflective of the corporate updates, Consumer Products & Services lags given LVMH while Basic Resources slip after earnings/production updates from Rio Tinto and Fresnillo. While the Banking sector is torn between two-way corporate updates and an ongoing NatWest story. Stateside, futures are slightly mixed but yet to differ markedly from near-unchanged levels, ES -0.1%, ahead of the FOMC and further corporate heavyweights after digesting the likes of MSFT and GOOGL after-hours on Tuesday.
Top European news
- London Mayor Khan urged the UK government to provide more funding to finance a more generous scrapping scheme for older cars affected by his plan to widen the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the entire capital, according to FT.
FX
- DXY slips ahead of the Fed, but also amidst Yen strength pre-BoJ and a Euro bounce on the eve of ECB.
- Index fades within 101.430-080 range, as USD/JPY retreats towards 140.00 from 141.00+ peak and EUR/USD eyes the top of an expiry range spanning 1.1100-1.1000.
- Aussie undermined by sub-forecast CPI data and higher probability of RBA pause next week, AUD/USD softer between 0.6793-29 parameters, but supported by 21 and 200 DMAs.
- Loonie lags awaiting BoC minutes as crude recoils, USD/CAD closer to the top of 1.3202-1.3169 bounds.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1295 vs exp. 7.1341 (prev. 7.1406)
Fixed Income
- Bonds meander either side of par pre-FOMC and with eyes on the ECB and BoJ thereafter.
- Bunds marginally underperform within a 133.67-26 range and absorbing 7 year German supply.
- Gilts also mostly adrift between 96.62-29 parameters and T-note afloat having peaked peaked at 111-29 and troughed just above Tuesday’s 111-19+ low.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent futures are subdued intraday after rising to fresh multi-month highs on Tuesday amid further stimulative pledges by China alongside potential supply concerns, ahead of the FOMC.
- Spot gold is modestly firmer amid the softer Dollar with the yellow metal back above its 100 DMA (USD 1,964.25/oz today) as all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve’s decision and Chair Powell’s press conference.
- Base metals are mostly softer and take a breather from the recent China-induced gains, with 3M LME copper just dipping under USD 8,600/t from a recent peak near USD 8,700/t.
- US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.3mln (exp. -2.0mln), Gasoline -1.0mln (exp. -2.0mln), Distillate +1.6mln (exp. -0.1mln), Cushing -2.3mln.
- China’s state planner NDRC is to increase prices of retail gasoline and retail diesel by CNY 275/t and CNY 260t respectively from July 27th.
Geopolitics
- Chinese Defense Ministry said China and Russia will soon hold their third joint naval patrol in the western and northern parts of the Pacific Ocean which is not aimed at any third party or related to global or regional situations, according to Global Times.
- India “open” to Chinese investment despite border clashes, official says, according to FT.
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: July MBA Mortgage Applications -1.8%, prior 1.1%
- 10:00: June New Home Sales MoM, est. -5.0%, prior 12.2%
- 10:00: June New Home Sales, est. 725,000, prior 763,000
- 14:00: July FOMC Rate Decision
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets put in another resilient performance over the last 24 hours, as all eyes turn to the Fed’s latest decision today. The positive mood was supported by another strong round of US data, which included the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index hitting a 2-year high. That offered a fresh boost to risk assets, with the S&P 500 (+0.28%) rising to its highest level in 15 months yesterday, Brent Crude oil prices closing above $83/bbl for the first time since April, and US HY credit spreads reaching their tightest level in 15 months too. In addition, there was a significant milestone for the Dow Jones (+0.08%), which recorded a 12th consecutive gain for the first time since 2017. If we get a 13th today that would be the longest run since 1987, so one to watch out for.
When it comes to the Fed today, they’re widely expected to hike rates by 25bps. That’s in line with market pricing, which sees a 97% chance of a hike, as well as the overwhelming consensus of economists. In turn, that would take the target range for the federal funds rate up to 5.25%-5.50%, marking its highest level since 2001. But since a hike today is almost fully priced in, the bigger question for markets will be if the statement and the press conference signal anything about the likelihood of further rate hikes ahead.
In their preview of today’s meeting (link here), our US economists think that there’s limited downside from Chair Powell delivering a hawkish-leaning message. Even after the very positive CPI print, he’s likely to emphasise that further evidence is needed to be confident that inflation will be tamed. Furthermore, the FOMC themselves signalled in their June dot plot that two further hikes were their baseline by year-end, implying one more after today. Remember as well that there are still two jobs reports and CPI reports ahead of the next meeting – as well as the Jackson Hole gathering – so our economists think Powell is unlikely to provide strong guidance about the outcomes of upcoming meetings.
When it comes to market pricing, fed funds futures are currently pricing just a 44% chance of a second hike after today’s. In other words, the central expectation is that this will be the last hike of the current cycle. But it’s worth remembering that we’ve been here before. In fact, after the two most recent hikes in March and May, market pricing by the close that day was that the Fed were most likely done hiking. So they’ve shown themselves willing to adjust in recent months, particularly as the ramifications from the regional bank crisis weren’t as bad as many feared at the time.
Ahead of the Fed, there was a fresh selloff for sovereign bonds thanks to another round of resilient data. Firstly, we had the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence reading, which hit a 2-year high of 117.0 (vs. 112.0 expected). Second, housing inflation was more resilient than expected in May, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index up by +0.99% over the month (vs. +0.70% expected). In fact, that’s the fastest monthly house price growth in a year, which is adding to the signs that housing inflation has now bottomed out and if anything is accelerating again.
That backdrop meant that yields on 10yr Treasuries rose by a modest +1.2bps to 3.88%, a two-week high. The sell-off was driven by rising real rates, while the 10yr breakeven (-1.2bps) retreated slightly after hitting hit a post-SVB high on Monday. And over in Europe it was much the same story, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.5bps), OATs (+0.7bps) and BTPs (+3.5bps) all seeing a moderate increase.
For equities, yesterday brought another resilient performance, with the S&P 500 (+0.28%) hitting another 15-month high. We also had a 12th consecutive daily increase for the Dow Jones (+0.08%) for the first time since February 2017, and if we get a 13th gain today, that would be the longest run of gains since January 1987. Tech stocks were the main outperformer, with the NASDAQ (+0.61%) and the FANG+ index (+0.93%) seeing larger gains. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.48%) advanced for a 6th day running for the first time since January.
After the US close, we received earnings releases from Microsoft and Alphabet, which both beat earnings estimates but received contrasting reactions. Microsoft was trading lower in after-hours trading (-3.7%) after reporting slowing growth in cloud computing. Conversely, Alphabet saw a positive reaction (+6.1%) amid revenue outperformance boosted by its search business. Elsewhere overnight, US equity futures are flat ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.01%.
There were some interesting other developments back in Europe yesterday, since we got the ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey for Q2. That had evidence for both sides of the hard vs soft landing debate. On the downside, it showed the sharpest decline in demand for loans by enterprises in the survey’s history since 2003. The share of rejected corporate loans also rose. But on the upside, the pace of tightening in credit standards moderated, and banks expected credit conditions to improve closer to neutral settings in Q3.
The release comes ahead of tomorrow’s ECB policy decision, where another 25bp hike is widely expected. However, markets have continued to downgrade the chances of a second hike after tomorrow’s decision, with the probability now at 75% this morning, having been 88% at the end of last week. That also followed the release of the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany, which showed a larger-than-expected decline in July. The main reading came in at an 8-month low of 87.3 (vs. 88.0 expected), and the current assessment component fell to 91.3 (vs. 93.0 expected), which is the lowest since February 2021.
Asian equity markets are mostly losing ground this morning after yesterday’s rally. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-0.79%) is the biggest underperformer, with the KOSPI (-0.70%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.35%) and the CSI 300 (-0.34%) also edging lower. Otherwise, the Nikkei (-0.03%) is struggling to gain traction, but the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.88%) has seen a strong outperformance after Australia’s inflation eased for the second straight quarter.
In terms of that release from Australia, CPI only rose by a quarterly +0.8% in Q2, which was beneath the +1.0% reading expected by the consensus. The trimmed mean also came in beneath expectations, with just a +0.9% increase rather than the +1.1% gain expected. In turn, markets are pricing in a growing chance that the RBA will keep rates on hold at its next meeting, with the chance of an August hike down from 44% to 16%. Australian government bonds are also outperforming this morning, with their 10yr yield down -3.4bps to 3.99%.
There wasn’t much in the way of other data yesterday. However, we did get the IMF’s latest economic forecasts, which upgraded their 2023 global growth projection for this year to 3.0%, up two-tenths from April. The upgrades were fairly broad-based across countries, with Germany being the only G7 member to see a downgrade to this year’s projections, with the IMF now expecting a -0.3% contraction in 2023.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Fed’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise, data releases include US new home sales for June and the Euro Area M3 money supply for June. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Meta, Coca-Cola, Union Pacific, Boeing and AT&T.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
EUROPE
European bourses lower, US digests Big Tech earnings, DXY & Crude slip pre-FOMC – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 05:52 AM
- European bourses are generally subdued with the Euro Stoxx 50 weighed on by LVMH -4.4%
- Stateside, futures are more contained pre-FOMC and as participants digest after-hours MSFT & GOOGL updates
- DXY continues to slip amid ongoing JPY strength with EUR benefitting as the three regions near policy announcements; AUD lags post-CPI
- Crude benchmarks a touch softer intraday after Tuesday’s multi-month peaks with base metals in-fitting, XAU benefits from the USD
- EGBs are cagey with drivers limited while USTs tick higher and more so at the short-end pre-Fed
- Looking ahead, highlights include US New Home Sales, FOMC Policy Announcement and Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference. Earnings from Boeing, Meta, Thermo Fisher, & Coca-Cola.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are primarily in the red but with some more mixed performance, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%; action which comes after numerous key earnings incl. LVMH, -4.4% which is weighing on the Euro Stoxx 50 & CAC 40 -1.4%.
- Sectors are largely reflective of the corporate updates, Consumer Products & Services lags given LVMH while Basic Resources slip after earnings/production updates from Rio Tinto and Fresnillo. While the Banking sector is torn between two-way corporate updates and an ongoing NatWest story.
- Stateside, futures are slightly mixed but yet to differ markedly from near-unchanged levels, ES -0.1%, ahead of the FOMC and further corporate heavyweights after digesting the likes of MSFT and GOOGL after-hours on Tuesday.
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
- DXY slips ahead of the Fed, but also amidst Yen strength pre-BoJ and a Euro bounce on the eve of ECB.
- Index fades within 101.430-080 range, as USD/JPY retreats towards 140.00 from 141.00+ peak and EUR/USD eyes the top of an expiry range spanning 1.1100-1.1000.
- Aussie undermined by sub-forecast CPI data and higher probability of RBA pause next week, AUD/USD softer between 0.6793-29 parameters, but supported by 21 and 200 DMAs.
- Loonie lags awaiting BoC minutes as crude recoils, USD/CAD closer to the top of 1.3202-1.3169 bounds.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1295 vs exp. 7.1341 (prev. 7.1406)
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.
FIXED INCOME
- Bonds meander either side of par pre-FOMC and with eyes on the ECB and BoJ thereafter.
- Bunds marginally underperform within a 133.67-26 range and absorbing 7 year German supply.
- Gilts also mostly adrift between 96.62-29 parameters and T-note afloat having peaked peaked at 111-29 and troughed just above Tuesday’s 111-19+ low.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent futures are subdued intraday after rising to fresh multi-month highs on Tuesday amid further stimulative pledges by China alongside potential supply concerns, ahead of the FOMC.
- Spot gold is modestly firmer amid the softer Dollar with the yellow metal back above its 100 DMA (USD 1,964.25/oz today) as all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve’s decision and Chair Powell’s press conference.
- Base metals are mostly softer and take a breather from the recent China-induced gains, with 3M LME copper just dipping under USD 8,600/t from a recent peak near USD 8,700/t.
- US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.3mln (exp. -2.0mln), Gasoline -1.0mln (exp. -2.0mln), Distillate +1.6mln (exp. -0.1mln), Cushing -2.3mln.
- China’s state planner NDRC is to increase prices of retail gasoline and retail diesel by CNY 275/t and CNY 260t respectively from July 27th.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q2 2023 (USD): EPS 1.44 (exp. 1.34), Revenue 74.60bln (exp. 72.82bln). +6.9% in pre-market trade
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 2.69 (exp. 2.55), Revenue 56.2bln (exp. 55.47bln); soft Q1 guidance. -4.1% in pre-market trade
- Snap Inc (SNAP) Q2 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.02 (exp. -0.04), Revenue 1.07bln (exp. 1.05bln) -18% in pre-market trade
- Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) Q2 2023 (USD): EPS 1.87 (exp. 1.76), Revenue 4.53bln (exp. 4.36bln) -3.8% in pre-market trade
- Visa Inc (V) Q3 2023 (USD): EPS 2.16 (exp. 2.12), Revenue 8.1bln (exp. 8.06bln) -0.3% in pre-market trade
- X Corp (formerly Twitter) is offering incentives on certain ad formats within the US and UK, via WSJ citing emails; additionally, has warned brands that verified status could be lost if certain spending thresholds are not met.
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- London Mayor Khan urged the UK government to provide more funding to finance a more generous scrapping scheme for older cars affected by his plan to widen the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the entire capital, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
- EU Money-M3 Annual Growth (Jun) 0.6% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.4%)
GEOPOLITICS
- Chinese Defense Ministry said China and Russia will soon hold their third joint naval patrol in the western and northern parts of the Pacific Ocean which is not aimed at any third party or related to global or regional situations, according to Global Times.
- India “open” to Chinese investment despite border clashes, official says, according to FT.
CRYPTO
- Once again, Bitcoin is relatively contained and resides well within but at the lower-end of Monday’s more pronounced USD 28.842k to 30.342k parameters. Thus far, specific drivers have been a touch limited with markets generally focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting and Powell’s presser.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed with most bourses lacking firm direction heading into the looming major central bank policy decisions beginning with the FOMC later today.
- ASX 200 outperformed with gains led by the mining industry and the top-weighted financials sector, while participants also reflected on the mostly softer-than-expected inflation data which showed headline CPI Q/Q was at its slowest pace of increase since 2021.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the mood indecisive as softer Services PPI data from Japan added to the second-guessing surrounding this week’s BoJ meeting.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were weaker after the prior day’s stimulus boost lost steam but with downside limited owing to wide expectations for further support measures and after the PBoC upped its liquidity efforts, while China also replaced the head of its central bank amid the increasing challenges facing its economy.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US Secretary of State Blinken said he expects to work well with new Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, while it was separately reported that Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said he wants to closely communicate on various levels with China including with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
- Japan maintains its overall view on the economy and says it is “recovering moderately”; Japan raises its view on business sentiment in July for the first time in 7 months.
- Japanese Gov’t official, citing BoJ’s Ueda, says market sentiment continues to improve. Adds, long-term yield rate remains stable under YCC. USD/JPY is slightly volatile partly due to rate differentials. To maintain an accommodative monetary environment for firms.
- China is said to be mulling easing proposed rules that require foreign office equipment makers operating in the country to transfer key product technology to China, according to Nikkei sources.
DATA RECAP
- Australian CPI QQ (Q2) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.4%); YY (Q2) 6.0% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 7.0%)
- Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ (Q2) 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.2%); YY (Q2) 5.9% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev.
- Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI QQ (Q2) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.2%); YY (Q2) 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.8%)
- Australian Weighted CPI YY (Jun) 5.40% vs. Exp. 5.40% (Prev. 5.60%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.49 PTS OR 0.26% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 69.26 PTS OR 0.36% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 14.17 PTS OR 0.04% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.84 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1534 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1538 /Oil UP TO 78.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.75 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/CHINA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
China appoints a new Central banker in its latest bid to revive its slumping economy
(zerohedge)
China Appoints New Central Bank Governor In Latest Bid To Revive Slumping Economy
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 08:25 PM
China has been busy replacing officials in top government roles today: right around the time news broke that Beijing had abruptly replaced its recently “vanished” foreign minister Qin Gang with his predecessor Wang Yi, we also learned that Beijing named Pan Gongsheng as new governor of the central bank, strengthening his position as head of the institution tasked with boosting the world’s second-largest economy.Pan Gongsheng
Pan, 60, was appointed by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress on Tuesday, replacing Yi Gang, who has reached the official retirement age of 65 for minister-level officials, state media reported. A former deputy at the People’s Bank of China, Pan had already been named the Communist Party secretary at the PBOC earlier in July, putting him in one of the two top slots at the bank.
As Bloomberg reports, Pan – who has been a long-time central banker – joined the PBOC in 2012 after previous stints in senior positions at giant state banks including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China. His move to the top of the PBOC “signals that Beijing is prioritizing policy continuity at a time when the economic recovery is losing momentum and officials are grappling with various ways to boost confidence.” Some more details from Bloomberg
Since his appointment as party secretary at the PBOC, Pan has held several meetings with visiting central bankers, including South Korea’s Rhee Chang-yong, and attended a central bank governors conference between China, Japan and South Korea in July. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen referred to Pan as “acting governor” when she met with him during her Beijing trip recently.
More importantly, his appointment marks the first time since 2018 that the top two positions at the PBOC — governor and Communist Party secretary — will be held by one person, streamlining decision-making at the very top. Former governor Zhou Xiaochuan held both posts until his departure in 2018, when Yi Gang was named governor and Guo Shuqing held the position of party chief.
Curiously, Pan had actually exited the Communist Party’s elite Central Committee late last year, which to some was a signal that he was on his way out. Without that senior role in the party, there are questions over the central bank’s influence, given the Communist Party’s increasing control over the financial sector under President Xi Jinping.
Unlike the US Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe, the PBOC is not independent (spoiler alert: the Fed isn’t independent either, but it pretends to be for popular consumption). It answers to the State Council, China’s cabinet led by Premier Li Qiang, and needs approval before making major policy decisions such as setting interest rates or managing the currency.
In addition to being deputy governor, Pan was also head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) since 2016, China’s regulator overseeing the country’s $3 trillion in foreign reserves. That experience will stand him in good stead as the PBOC seeks to stabilize the currency amid heightened investor uncertainty. The yuan is down almost 4% against the dollar this year, among the worst performers in Asia.
Looking ahead, at the top of Pan’s priorities will be “steering the economy through its current downturn, which is weighing on financial markets and worrying businesses” according to BBG. Indeed, investors have been clamoring for more monetary stimulus since interest rates were cut in June, though the central bank under Yi has taken a cautious approach, focusing on curbing financial risks.
So far, foreigners hoping for a massive stimulus in China have been repeatedly disappointed. That said, one thing is certain: the key to the economy’s recovery is a rebound in the property market, which remains in a slump after more than two years of restrictions to curb the sector. While Pan has been viewed as more hawkish on property regulation, the Communist Party’s Politburo on Monday signaled a dovish shift in stance, hinting at likely easing in policies in coming months.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
BANK OF ENGLAND’s huge QE created a loss of 11 billion pounds and the UK government covered its losses
(zerohedge)
Bank Of England’s QE-Driven Losses Worsen, Expected To Hit £150 Billion
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 12:25 PM
Last October we highlighted the first – of what we said at the time was likely ‘the first of many’ – bailout transfer payment from the UK Treasury to The Bank of England to cover its QE losses.
That amount was just over £11 billion ($12.4 billion).
Things have escalated since…
The FT reports today that The Bank of England has estimated it will require the Treasury to transfer a total of £150bn by 2033 to cover expected losses on the central bank’s quantitative easing program, up from a previous calculation of £100bn.
The transfers represent both the continuing cash flow losses on the QE scheme – under which the BoE bought large volumes of gilts – as well as gains or losses made by the central bank when bonds mature or it sells the assets.
Under an indemnification agreement between the Bank and the government, the Treasury is responsible for all profits and losses made under the quantitative easing program, which had previously generated tens of billions of pounds for the government when interest rates were at historic lows.
Between 2009 and 2022, the Bank estimates that bond holdings raised a cumulative £124 billion for the Treasury. The government makes payments to the Bank to cover its losses.
Once again the taxpayer takes it on the chin…
In forecasts published at the March Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated that losses over the remaining life of the QE scheme would result in a cumulative net loss of £63bn.
Jagjit Chadha, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a think-tank, said it was “increasingly clear” that losses on the BoE QE scheme would act as a constraint on fiscal policy in any pre-election Budget as they were now larger than the UK fiscal watchdog had factored into its forecasts.
In the short term, the BoE expects the Treasury to transfer about £40bn in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025.
This is equivalent to about 4 per cent of gross domestic product, and about £10bn more each year than the BoE was anticipating in April, suggesting the government will face additional pressures on the public finances in the run-up to the next election.
The situation in the UK is apparently different to that in the US as while The Fed typically remits its operating profits (on interest income from the bonds on its balance sheet and from fees for services provided) to the US Treasury (under Federal law). That money becomes part of the federal government’s operating budget. In other words, the central bank serves as a revenue source for Uncle Sam.
As we noted previously, in 2021, The Fed reported a net income of $107.8 billion and sent $107.4 billion to the US Treasury.
But it is possible for the Fed to lose money. In fact, it will likely do so in 2023. If so, it would be the first operating loss since 1915.
However, unlike in the UK, while the US government will see a reduction in revenue which will increase the federal budget deficit, we live in a world where the Fed gets to make its own accounting rules. And according to its own accounting rules, any net loss magically turns into a “deferred asset.”
Maybe the BoE and UK Treasury need to take some notes…
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Ukrainian tanks strangely are fueled by Russian oil refined in Hungary and |Turkey
(zerohedge)
Ukrainian Tanks Are Running On Russian Oil Refined In Hungary & Turkey
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 02:00 AM
Kyiv is almost completely dependent on fuel imports to maintain its war effort…
Ukraine’s tanks are increasingly running on oil that comes from Russia in what German newspaper Handelsblatt describes as a paradox of war.
According to the Ukrainian customs authority, Kyiv is importing more and more diesel from Hungary and Turkey, both countries that process oil from Russia to a large extent in their refineries.
Although the market position of Hungary’s MOL Group and Turkish suppliers in Ukraine was already relatively good in the past, it was only recently that the Ukrainian customs authorities reported a striking increase in imports.
For example, MOL, which is closely linked to the Hungarian state, doubled its sales to Ukraine in the past six months.
Since MOL purchases Russian oil to a large extent, it is now likely to be the main fuel for Ukraine’s war machinery.
At the same time, companies that do not obtain their raw material from Russia are losing market share in Ukraine.
This is because MOL has a competitive advantage over other European oil companies: It has an exemption from the European Union to continue supplying its refineries with Russian crude oil.
END
ROBERT H TO US:
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Very clear that a 2nd front will be started. It is only a matter of time.
Note American military directly involved. Expect when conflict breaks out Poland will suffer mass missile strikes well beyond what has been seen in Ukraine.
Clearly, Russia and Belarus is well aware of what is coming and are preparing. Expect to soon hear of another 500,000 Russians being called up for the 2nd Great War. And while summer turns to fall and winter beckons Europe will be faced with energy shortages.
A colossal waste of humanity and capital. Perhaps western rebuilding will be be more appropriate in Poland after it is in ruins.
https://warnews247.gr/epifylaki-stin-polonia-metaferontai-chiliades-stratiotes-ston-diadromo-suwalki-kai-sta-synora-me-lefkorosia-dimiourgoun-neo-soma-stratou-gia-tin-prostasia-tis-varsovias/
IRAN/BOLIVIA
Iran is certainly getting around. They now inked a deal with Bolivia for drones .
(zerohedge)
US Allies On Alert After Lithium-Rich Bolivia Inks Defense Deal With Iran
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 10:05 PM
Members of Bolivia’s far-right opposition and the Argentinian government are demanding that La Paz disclose the details of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on defense and security affairs signed between Defense Ministers Edmundo Novillo y Mohamad Reza Ashtiani in Tehran last week.
“They say that [Iran] will give us drones. Others say they will give us missiles. All of this sounds strange, even more so considering it involves Iran … I can’t understand why Bolivia is getting involved in such a complex and difficult relationship,” said lawmaker Gustavo Aliaga, who belongs to the Comunidad Ciudadana (CC) party.Defense ministers of Iran and Bolivia in a ceremony inking the military deal.
In 2019, CC leader Carlos Mesa supported the US-orchestrated coup that forced socialist leader Evo Morales to flee Bolivia, leaving it under the control of a far-right government that allegedly conducted multiple massacres of Morales supporters and sought to surrender the country’s massive lithium deposits to western transnationals.
The Argentinian foreign ministry also demanded explanations from La Paz on Monday under pressure from the Delegation of Argentinian Israeli Associations (DAIA), who said the MoU “risks for the security of Argentina and the region” due to Tehran’s ties with Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah.
In a press release, DAIA called on the Argentinian government “to condemn this agreement and demand Bolivia reconsider its decision.”
Buenos Aires blames Hezbollah and Iran for the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center that left 85 dead. Both Tehran and Hezbollah deny the accusation.
The statements by the CC and DAIA came on the heels of a report by the neoconservative Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which claims that the deal between Tehran and La Paz includes the delivery of Iranian drones for the South American nation.
Last week, Iran agreed to help Bolivia combat drug trafficking along its borders and boost cooperation with the Bolivian army. “[Due to] Bolivia’s critical needs in terms of border defense and the fight against drug trafficking, we will establish collaboration in equipment and specialized knowledge,” Ashtiani said following his meeting with the Bolivian defense minister last week.
For his part, Novillo said Iran is a “role model” for nations that seek freedom, highlighting the Islamic Republic’s “remarkable progress in science and technology, security, and the defense industry despite sanctions.”
Bolivia is the latest Latin American nation to ink a security agreement with the Persian nation, following in the footsteps of Nicaragua and Venezuela. Over the past year, the Islamic Republic has also made significant inroads with Brazil.
Iran and Bolivia also among nations with the world’s largest lithium deposits, with the Islamic Republic earlier this year announcing the discovery of a massive deposit holding a reported 8.5 million tons of the rare element. On the other hand, Bolivia has the richest known lithium deposits in the world, with an estimated 21 million tons.
END
ROBERT H TO US;
EGYPT/RUSSIA CHINA AND THE BRICS
Egypt pushing for new economic world order with Russia — RT Business News
| Robert Hryniak | 2:21 PM (50 minutes ago) |  | |
| to | |||
The world is turning away from the Dollar and Swift. This is what happens when fools administer. American influence is on the wane leaving scope for new changes to come.
https://www.rt.com/business/580259-russia-africa-economic-cooperation/
end
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES//
END
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES“
Who Ordered The Lab-Leak Cover-Up?
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 12:45 PM
Authored by Will Jones via DailySceptic.org,
Who instigated the cover-up of the lab leak theory of Covid’s origins?
Many of us have assumed it was Anthony Fauci, then-Director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). However, newly released emails and messages indicate that initially Fauci was open to investigating the possibility of a lab leak properly.
Following his now infamous February 1st 2020 teleconference with leading virologists Kristian Andersen, Eddie Holmes and others, Fauci wrote to several Government officials to inform them that Jeremy Farrar, the Director of the Wellcome Trust, and Francis Collins, the Director of the National Institutes of Health, had been tasked with contacting the WHO to set up an international investigation group into virus origins with “no judgement at all” on the outcome. “Where that leads remains to be seen,” he wrote.
Fauci writes that some of the scientists on the call deemed a lab origin possible or likely, doing so even “more strongly” after the call, while just two said they believed such a scenario could be ruled out (these were Ron Fouchier and Christian Drosten). Fauci thus presents the matter to Government colleagues as an unresolved scientific argument, with a number of scientists favouring a lab origin. The main course of action he proposes is to organise a group under the auspices of the WHO to look into it in an impartial way.
The following day, Collins wrote to Farrar to confirm he was following this up with WHO Chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Collins told Farrar he was “coming around to the view that a natural origin is more likely” but said it needed to be looked into by the WHO – though also added that he “shares your view” that this is mainly to be a “confidence-inspiring” initiative to pre-empt “voices of conspiracy” that would otherwise do “great potential harm to science and international harmony”. This does suggest a non-neutral political agenda being pursued, much more so than Fauci’s email of the day before, an agenda apparently being driven by Farrar.
What happened next is crucial. The impartial investigation Fauci proposed never took place. What happened instead was that on February 3rd – two days after the teleconference and Fauci’s email – another teleconference was convened, this one hosted by the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NAS). This was in response to requests from the U.S. Government for scientific advice on the origin of the virus. Fauci was invited to give the “perspective from NIH/NIAID” ahead of an open discussion. The proposed output prior to the meeting appears to have been a “based on science” web posting, not unlike what Andersen and others were already working on.
However, the following day an email went out from Andrew Pope, an official in the NAS, saying the “plans have changed” and in place of a ‘based on science’ web posting there was now to be a statement signed by the Presidents of the three National Academies and sent to the Government. It appears that this change was what was agreed at the teleconference, though that is not completely clear as the email doesn’t specify who the “we” are who now think the original plan is not “appropriate”. What makes it likely it was agreed at the teleconference is that the email does not seem to expect anyone to object to the change and assumes all are on board with the new proposal.
As can be seen below, the statement from the NAS (in the form of a letter) claims to have consulted relevant scientific specialists (this presumably was what the teleconference was doing) and reports from them a consensus that the available genomic data are “consistent with natural evolution” and there is “no evidence” the virus was engineered. This is not a fair summary of the conversations the scientists were actually having at the time, of course. Rather, it represents a political effort to shut down the lab origin theory – the beginning of such an effort, in fact.
Kristian Andersen was involved in both the Fauci teleconference of February 1st and the NAS teleconference of February 3rd, and interestingly his contribution after the latter was to push for the statement to be stronger on rejecting the idea that the virus was engineered, claiming that the “data conclusively show” that it wasn’t. This is despite him being a key voice both before and after this arguing that a lab origin can’t be ruled out.
Andersen seemed to take a very different attitude two weeks later, when Nature rejected the first version of the ‘Proximal Origin’ paper because one of the reviewers (who was never publicly identified) said it was not strong enough on dismissing a lab origin. Andersen responded (on February 20th) with a robust defence of not dismissing the possibility of a lab origin, saying the evidence didn’t allow ruling it out and it “must be considered as a serious scientific theory”. It seems odd that this is the same scientist who was urging the NAS to go further in dismissing a lab origin. The most likely explanation is that Andersen is making an obscure distinction between an engineered virus and a virus that originated in a lab from serial passage through cell culture. This is a distinction that will be lost on most people, and indeed some of the scientists in the email discussions themselves said the distinction was not valid in this context. Andersen’s arguments ruling out engineering are also not sound.
The ‘Proximal Origin’ paper was then amended to reject a lab origin more strongly before being accepted for publication in Nature Medicine. Andersen told the House Pandemic Subcommittee that he had changed his view on the possibility of a lab origin between the rejection and re-submission, which must therefore have occurred between February 20th and 27th. However, as the team at Public have shown, it’s clear that Andersen did still think a lab origin (including engineering) was plausible after this date. On April 16th he wrote to his co-authors: “I’m still not fully convinced that no culture was involved. We also can’t fully rule out engineering (for basic research).” It’s apparent from Andersen’s messages that pressure to reject a lab origin came from ‘higher-ups’ and he was either feigning rejecting the theory or had artificially talked himself into it for a period of time.
So who did orchestrate the suppression of the lab origin theory? We can now see for the first time when precisely the cover-up began. It began with the NAS teleconference on February 3rd and not, as many have previously assumed, with the Fauci teleconference on February 1st. This is clear because while Fauci came away from his teleconference proposing an impartial investigation “with no judgement” to see “where that leads”, the outcome of the NAS teleconference was an explicit plan to dismiss a lab origin and artificially claim consensus.
Who made that decision? It seems to have been something agreed at the NAS teleconference. But who pushed it in that direction, and why did scientists like Andersen endorse it despite not really being in agreement? Indeed, Andersen and Co were still trying to get a lab theory into Nature on February 20th, only abandoning it because a hostile reviewer insisted the possibility be ruled out. So despite Andersen, Holmes and others stating at times in their private messages that they are keen to try to disprove the lab idea, they don’t appear to be the instigators of the cover-up.
It is possible Fauci suddenly changed his mind overnight, but it also seems unlikely, at least without some pressure put on him from elsewhere. So he does not seem to be the original source of the suppression idea, even if he soon became a ruthless enforcer of it – though we’d need to know more about his role at the NAS teleconference to know for sure.
It also seems unlikely to be the biodefence people like Robert Kadlec, as Kadlec was and continues to be a lab leak proponent, being the main author of the recent Muddy Waters Senate report pushing the theory. U.S. security services are known to have been involved in pushing lab origin theories right from the start of January 2020. Why they were doing that is not fully clear, but it may relate to wanting to paint China as the villain and upping the fear of the virus as a potential biological agent to allow activation of biodefence protocols. It’s fair to say that the clash between the security services pushing the lab origin theory and the suppression of that theory by other parts of the state, and even at times by the security services themselves, has been one of the more confusing aspects of the pandemic origin picture. It might be thought, for example, that the biodefence people would want to protect their biodefence research and not jeopardise it by convincing everyone that the virus could have come from such research. But this doesn’t appear to be the case, at least not for all of them.
So whom does that leave? Farrar seems a prime suspect, as it was him who seems to have been persuading Francis Collins of the importance of avoiding “harm to science and international harmony” by dismissing a lab origin. But a glance at the NAS teleconference invite list below indicates he doesn’t appear to have been involved (unless he was blind copied). EcoHealth Alliance’s Peter Daszak is on there, but why would he have authority to demand a cover-up? Ralph Baric is also there, whose paper with the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s Shi Zhengli on manipulating coronaviruses had so startled Andersen. But what authority would he have in this group?
Perhaps then it was just a groupthink that took over during the teleconference out of a misplaced sense of needing to protect “science and international harmony”. But is groupthink really sufficient to explain such a powerful and sustained move to suppress the theory?
Despite all the effort that has gone into investigating Covid origins, this key question remains outstanding. Who ordered the cover-up?
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Biden administration wants NO vaccine development standards? Why? What is going on? Biden admin allocates $5 billion for new COVID vaccines with little manufacturing guidance
The initiative, known as Project NextGen, has left manufacturers confused about whether they are even eligible for funding. pharmaceutical manufacturers are not receiving guidance about standards
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 25 |
‘The Biden administration is issuing grants from a $5 billion program to expedite the next generation of COVID-19 vaccines, but pharmaceutical manufacturers are not receiving guidance about vaccine standards as the development process returns to its normally slower pace.’
For example, the Pennsylvania-based company Ocugen, which is developing an inhaled vaccine, said it was unable to receive guidance about whether it was eligible for the funding. The company said its vaccine may not have undergone enough advanced testing to qualify for the grants.
end
BREAKING News: WHO reports first case of MERS-CoV (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) in nearly 2 years (Al Ain in the United Arab Emirates), has a mortality rate of roughly 40%; another FALSE CoV?
Is this another false coronavirus narrative like the fraud COVID pandemic we harmed society with using deadly lockdowns and a fraud mRNA vaccine? 28 year old tested positive with PCR? FRAUD?
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 25 |
‘A man in Abu Dhabi has tested positive for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), said World Health Organization in an official statement. The UN body said that on July 10 this year, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), notified WHO of a case of MERS-CoV in a 28-year-old male from Al Ain city in Abu Dhabi. The statement said that the case had no history of direct or indirect contact with dromedaries, goats, or sheep. WHO stated that the ma was admitted to the hospital on June 8 and a nasopharyngeal swab was collected on 21 June. The patient tested positive for MERS-CoV by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on June 23.
END
Bronny James, LeBron James son (literally died) suffered a cardiac arrest on court, must thank God had urgent help (CPR etc.) & is at high risk of death here on! ‘Vaccine induced ‘silent myocarditis’
is what my money is riding on, same for JAMIE FOXX (vaccine-induced stroke); the mRNA technology based gene injection (Weissman et al.) scars the heart’s myocardium, adrenaline rush causes disaster
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 26 |
No basketball or football player or no teen, no one, no airline pilot, none, no one who took the shots and engage in physical activity (even accounting for the deaths we see when people are ‘rising’ at dawn, waking from sleep, the adrenaline rush as we ‘rise’ or wake strains the myocarditis damaged heart that was ‘silent’ and our partner may find us dead in the morning next to them) or work in stressful situations (that results in adrenaline, catecholamine being released into the blood stream) must take to the field, the court, the cockpit etc. until their industry mandates the right testing to rule out silent myocarditis;
this is a catastrophic sequelae for the mRNA technology based shots by Weissman, Bourla, Malone, Sahin etc. scars the heart and disturbs electrical conduction across the heart, the heart forever will be sub-optimal and when the teen with the silent myocarditis with no symptoms, takes to the field, the adrenaline baths the scarred heart muscle and it is too much, it places the scarred heart under strain; irregular atrial rythms results etc. and eventual cardiac arrest and possible death; Bronny James likely suffered this sequence and he is lucky to be alive; my hope is that high-level people like this would use their disaster to inform and educate the public and the world! And not conspire with pharma and the government and CDC etc. to cover this disaster up!
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Do not seek to sue us, why not debate us and defend your technology and explain how come there are these deaths now in young healthy people post mRNA vaccine, step up, stop hiding, talk to the public, own up, tell us what you really did, and what is happening and people are forgiving; remember, it is the cover up that brought down Nixon, not the petty crime…
See my prior stack and the types of testing (blood etc.) to rule out silent myocarditis are (demand your doctor or industry ensures these tests for your survival):
1)D-dimer test: A D-dimer test is a blood test that measures D-dimer, which is a protein fragment that your body makes when a blood clot dissolves in your body. D-dimer is normally undetectable or only detectable at a very low level unless your body is forming and breaking down significant blood clots.
A positive or elevated D-dimer test result may indicate that you have a blood clotting condition https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diagnostics/22045-d-dimer-test
2)High-sensitivity troponin test: A troponin test looks for the protein troponin (there are two forms related to your heart, troponin I and troponin T) in your blood. Normally, troponin stays inside your heart muscle’s cells, but damage to those cells — like the kind of damage from a heart attack — causes troponin to leak into your blood. Higher levels of troponin in your blood also mean more heart damage, which can help healthcare providers determine the severity of a heart attack. https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diagnostics/22770-troponin-test
3)chest MRI with contrast: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a type of noninvasive imaging test that uses magnets and radio waves to create pictures of the inside of your body. Unlike a CT scan, an MRI produces no damaging radiation and is considered a safer alternative, especially for pregnant women.
In a chest MRI, magnets and radio waves create black-and-white images of your chest. These images allow your doctor to check your tissues and organs for abnormalities without making an incision. MRIs also create images that “see” beyond your bones — and include soft tissue. Your doctor may want to order a chest MRI to see if you have:
- blocked blood vessels
- cancer
- disease affecting your organs
- heart problems
- injury
- a source causing pain
- tumors
- problems affecting your lymph system
- https://www.uwmedicine.org/sites/stevie/files/2020-03/MRI-Gadolinium-Contrast.pdf
BREAKING: LeBron James’s son Bronny James (18 years old) suffers cardiac arrest during USC basketball practice **cough cough DAMAR Hamlin **cough cough JAMIE Foxx etc. etc.; what do we know? Not much!
Media, all involved, in lockdown mode, we will never know his COVID mRNA vaccine status, booster status, myocarditis status, NOTHING! The cover-up continues; IMO, COVID vaccine induced cardiac arrest
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 25 |
How much longer will the games continue? How much longer will the 6 Horsemen of the Apocalypse remain silent on their ‘death’ technology and vaccine?
END
CNN reports that LeBron James was vaccinated, so it is near 100% his son was Bronny was, who suffered cardiac arrest: ‘LeBron James confirms he was vaccinated for Covid-19 months after being initially
skeptical; Dr. LeBron: “But after doing my research and things of that nature, I felt like it was best suited for not only me but my family and my friends. That’s why I decided to do it.”
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 25 |
END
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Corporate Media Calls for ‘Blackouts’ to ‘Solve Climate Change’Green agenda alarmists in the corporate media are now calling for widespread electrical grid blackouts for “the greater good” of “solving the climate crisis.”READ MORE |
| WHO: MERS Coronavirus Case Confirmed in UAEThe World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that a case of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has been confirmed by authorities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).READ MORE |
| Jonathan Turley Slams White House for Shifting Story on Biden Family: ‘Utter Contempt for Intelligence of the Public’Legal scholar Jonathan Turley has slammed the White House for attempting to shift the story regarding Democrat President Joe Biden’s involvement in his family’s shady business dealings.READ MORE |
| Story Changes: Obamas Were at Martha’s Vineyard Estate When Private Chef Mysteriously DrownedA new report revealed that Barack and Michelle Obama were at their Martha’s Vineyard estate when their personal chef Tafari Campbell mysteriously drowned there.READ MORE |
| Megyn Kelly Puts Megan Rapinoe on Notice: ‘This Team Behavior Is Clearly a Result of Her Influence and It’s Disgusting’Megyn Kelly has ripped the “woke” US women’s soccer team after a disgraceful display on the world stage when they snubbed the national anthem.READ MORE |
| LeBron James’ Son Rushed to Hospital after Suffering Cardiac Arrest during Basketball PracticeLeBron James son, Bronny James, suffered cardiac arrest while practicing with the USC basketball team.READ MORE |
| Disney CEO Issues Warning To Joy Behar And Whoopi Goldberg: “We have to call it like it is, the business model is broken”Disney CEO Bob Iger came back to save the struggling entertainment giant and delivered some bad news for Joy Behar and other co-hosts of The View during a recent interview. Speaking with David Faber on the network’s “Squawk Box” program, Iger discussed the “transformative” work he has begun at Disney and what it means for ABC stars like Behar. Iger …READ MORE |
| Over 40 Countries Ready to Join BRICS for ‘Inclusive and Equitable Global Order,’ Top Official ClaimsA top South African official has claimed that over 40 countries are ready to join the BRICS international economic alliance.READ MORE |
| Oversight Committee Chair: ‘Cash-Strapped’ Biden Sold Secrets for DecadesHouse Oversight Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-KY) has unearthed new information regarding the allegation of influence-peddling leveled against Democrat President Joe Biden.READ MORE |
| RFK Jr Warns: Government Censorship Is a ‘License for Any Atrocity’Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has warned the American people about the dangers of allowing the government to censor them.READ MORE |
| ESPN Soccer Analyst Collapses Suddenly during Live BroadcastViewers were left stunned when ESPN soccer analyst Shaka Hislop collapsed suddenly during a live broadcast on Sunday night.READ MORE |
| Biden Admin Launches Crackdown on Water HeatersDemocrat President Joe Biden’s administration is launching a crackdown on the use of hot water heaters in American homes.READ MORE |
| Democrat Donor Bought $1.3M of Hunter’s ‘Art’ before Joe Biden Appointed Her to Prestigious CommissionAs the alarm bells become overwhelmingly deafening for most free-thinking patriots, even more evidence has emerged to suggest the taxpayer-funded White House is being run for profit to enrich a handful of corrupt officials in the upper echelons of the federal government.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| American Cancer Society: ‘Treating Patients Is Destroying the Planet’The American Cancer Society (ACS) has warned that treating cancer patients is destroying the planet by contributing to “climate change” because the “carbon footprint” of many procedures is too large.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Speaker McCarthy Says House Readying to Bring Impeachment Charges Against Joe BidenSpeaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is about to launch impeachment hearings against the current President of the United States Joe Biden.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Barack Obama’s Private Chef Dies Mysteriously Near Obamas’ Estate in Martha’s VineyardThe lifeless body of Tafari Campbell, renowned for being one of the chefs responsible for brewing White House honey ale beer during Barack Obama’s presidency, was discovered on Monday in the waters near the Martha’s Vineyard estate owned by the former President and former first lady Michelle Obama, as confirmed by Massachusetts police.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Hollywood Actress Jamie Lee Curtis Warns Americans: ‘We Are F**King the World’In a recent appearance at San Diego Comic-Con, recent Oscar winner Jamie Lee Curtis ranted about climate change, declaring that human industry is “f**king the world.” Jamie Lee Curtis showed up at Comic-Con on Friday to boost her latest graphic novel, “Mother Nature,” thereby sidestepping the SAG-AFTRA strike rule that restricts actors from promoting studio projects. “We’re f**king the world. There is a possibility of change, but we’re going to have to do it,” she said at a panel discussion. She later referenced the current summer heat wave. “It’s happening today!” she continued. “We are the hottest we’ve ever been in this country this week. I mean, talk about good timing. Seriously, we couldn’t be talking about something more important.” Curtis also stated that she doesn’t view climate change as a partisan issue. “I don’t care what side you’re on,” she said. “It’s happening, and there are things we can do to ameliorate it and to try to stem the tide, excuse the pun. Shit is happening, and so it feels absolutely on point right now.” Curtis was one of more than 250 entertainment industry personalities to recently demand social media companies including Facebook, TikTok, and Twitter to censor what they called “hate” and “disinformation” about the “LGBTQ” community. They asserted that mainstream social media platforms should not allow any criticism of the surgical mutilation of children under the name of “gender-affirming care.” The actress revealed last year that her adopted son Thomas now identifies as a “girl” and goes by the name “Ruby.” Curtis honored him after winning an Academy Award and announced her Oscar statue would have “they/them” pronouns “in support of my daughter Ruby.” Months later, she declared on social media that she would “protect trans kids,” a reference to the debate over whether to sterilize children and forever impair their sexual function as adults to spare them from a so-called “wrong puberty.” Earlier this year, Curtis mysteriously deleted a photo from her home, which depicted a naked child placed inside a box of sorts. Share your thoughts by scrolling down to leave a comment.READ THE FULL REPOR |
VACCINE IMPACT/
end
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
In “Victory” For Moscow, Russia Defies Sanctions By Selling Oil Above Western Price Cap
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 05:45 AM
Two weeks ago we reported that with a barrel of Urals about to rise above $60, the “Russian oil price at key port was about to breach sanctions cap“, which – if the sanctions were strenuously enforced – meant that there would be a sharp drop in supply.
Fast forward to today when, as the WSJ reported, the price of Russia’s most coveted crude finally traded above the western price cap imposed to starve Moscow of funds for the war in Ukraine (but not really, because starving the world of Russian oil has long been viewed as a far more dangerous outcome), resulting in a very distinct “victory” for Moscow in the “fight for influence over global oil markets.”
It is the first time that the price for its flagship Urals grade of oil has breached the $60-a-barrel limit since the U.S. and its allies introduced the novel sanctions policy last December, according to commodities-data firm Argus Media, and – as the WSJ clarifies – it is a sign that the Kremlin has succeeded, at least in part, in adjusting to the restrictions.A crude-oil tanker is anchored at the Kozmino terminal in Nakhodka Bay, Russia
As a reminder, in late 2022, companies in the Group of Seven advanced democracies were allowed to transport and insure Russian crude only if the price is below $60 a barrel. There are separate caps for refined products. The idea is that Moscow will sell petroleum at lower prices because it needs Western services to export its oil, thus keeping commodity inflation low.
The cap is part of a Western economic-pressure campaign and targets Russia’s most important revenue source. It is meant to bleed the Kremlin’s war coffers while encouraging Russian producers to keep sending petroleum to market so as not to foment inflation around the world. However, in a world where Russia’s 7 million of barrels of daily oil exports are suddenly pulled from the market, inflation would explode as the price of oil would promptly soar, we learn just how toothless western sanctions have been… and were meant to be.
One sign that the financial squeeze on Moscow might be relenting: The discount for Urals, compared with benchmark Brent, has narrowed to $20 a barrel. The gap is still far wider than before the war, but it has halved since January.
Meanwhile, the higher prices will bolster Russia’s oil-export revenues, which last month dropped to just over half their level from a year ago, according to the International Energy Agency, leading to more money available to fight the war in Ukraine just Zelensky’s counteroffensive is about to collapse. Russia’s Urals crude, named after the mountainous, oil-rich region, has also gotten an extra boost from high demand in Asia, where Russian producers are elbowing aside Saudi oil.
Western sanctions strive – at least on paper – to use Russia’s longstanding dependence on European shipping and insurance as leverage to contain the income Moscow fetches from crude. Climbing prices suggest Russia’s push to assemble an alternative network of tankers to which sanctions don’t apply is eroding Western influence over its prize export, said Sergey Vakulenko, an analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and former oil executive in Russia.
“This was an evolutionary process, and now we just see its results,” said Vakulenko. “Russian oil companies…put quite a lot of effort into staying in business and earning money. They have proven themselves to be capable operators.”
According to the WSJ, traders said Russian producers recently showed little desire to negotiate prices at which Western players could stay in the market. That is a shift since Urals last neared $60, in April.
To be sure, Russian companies are likely to need Western ships and insurance for some time to export some of the more than seven million barrels of petroleum they sell overseas daily. Some analysts say that gives the U.S. and Europe significant—though waning—leverage, and that they could step up the financial pressure on Moscow by lowering the cap. However, the growing influence of the gray fleet if “mystery” middlemen– which has shown remarkable stoicism to Washington’s sanctions threats – is what has given Putin all the leverage he needs. In the end, the $1 billion monthly windfall talks, and Biden’s bullshit walks.
Unable to accept defeat, Washington officials call the price rise a Pyrrhic victory for Moscow and point to the many obstacles that have been thrown in Russia’s way.
“Fundamentally, the price cap is holding down Russia’s revenue significantly, while continuing to create a world in which global markets are being supplied with Russian oil,” Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said in an interview. “Our goal is to continue to increase the cost for Russia in order to make sure they have less money to fight their illegal war in Ukraine, and that’s happening every day.” Spoiler alert: what is happening is that Russia is not only countering Ukraine’s “counteroffensive” but is now making the most money per barrel sold to foreign buyers in all of 2023.
And now that the western sanctions have shattered, the blame game begins: critics say allies started with the cap too high. Ukraine, backed by close allies including Poland, has lobbied to reduce it. But disagreements inside the European Union and concern about gas prices in Washington stymied them.
Instead, according to the WSJ the U.S. and EU have focused on tightening enforcement. A focus: The laundering of oil through swaps between ships at sea. Fraudulent documentation and side payments have also been used to evade the cap, according to traders.
However, the real goal of the sanctions was to fool the public that the West was doing something to punish Putin when in reality the imperative was to make sure Russia does not pull its oil from the western market and sends the price soaring.
A bigger challenge for the sanctions is the new logistics system that Russia and companies in its orbit began to build, consisting of tankers owned, insured and chartered outside the West.
As reported previously, sales of secondhand tankers have swollen the shadow fleet—industry parlance for tankers that shuttle petroleum from sanctioned nations. In the second quarter, five times as many tankers worked with sanctioned producers than at the end of 2021, according to ship-tracking firm Vortexa. Almost 80% of those ships have plied the Russian market.
The West derived leverage in part from the outsize role played by the shipping industry of Greece, which as an EU member observes the sanctions and price cap. The country’s tanker fleet moves more than half of crude exported from Russia, said Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance. “The West has true pricing power,” he said, adding that the cap could be lowered to between $20 and $30 a barrel. Of course, at that price Russia would sell zero oil to the west and instead target just India and China, which in turn would lead to a violent explosion in Western oil prices, something the former Goldman FX trader clearly failed to anticipate (not that surprising when one looks at the track record of his FX trading recos during his Goldman tenure).
Meanwhile, as even the WSJ admits, what little leverage the West has is evaporating. The huge sums European tanker companies could earn from renting ships out to move Russian oil have fallen in recent months, suggesting Russia has growing access to tankers owned outside the G-7, said Henry Curra, head of research at shipbroker Braemar.
At Russia’s Asian port of Kozmino, where a flavor of crude called Espo has traded above the cap all along, few tankers insured or owned by companies in the West are now involved in the oil trade.
The Biden administration acknowledges that Russia is developing an independent fleet, but a senior Treasury official said it isn’t a significant driver of oil flows. The cost of creating that alternative export system diverts funds from the war, U.S. officials say. They estimate that Russia’s central bank has deployed $9 billion to replace Western reinsurance schemes.
U.S., European and Japanese insurers covered almost all of Russia’s seaborne exports before the war, including those on Moscow’s state-owned tankers. Known collectively as the International Group of P&I Clubs, these companies insure against claims from third parties, such as coastal industries affected by an oil spill.
By April, half of Russian crude shipments and a third of refined-product shipments were on tankers not insured by members of the International Group, according to Borys Dodonov of the Kyiv School of Economics.
Rolf Thore Roppestad, chief executive of Norwegian insurer Gard, said at least 10 tankers pass through the Danish straits, Suez Canal and Strait of Malacca daily without International Group insurance. That poses dangers, he said, because insurers outside the group mostly lack experience in responding to accidents.
“The concern is that these insurers may not have backing by reinsurers—or, to the extent they do, those reinsurers may not have the resources to meet a major claim,” said Alexander Brandt, a partner at law firm Reed Smith. If there is a spill, he said, “the fear is that there will be no one there to mop it up—literally.”
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1073 UP 0.0023
USA/ YEN 140.61 DOWN 0.698 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2919 UP 0.0026
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3211 UP .0024 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 24 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.49 PTS OR 0.20%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 69.26 PTS OR 0.36%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .84 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 69.26 PTS OR 0.36%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.49 PTS OR 0.26%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.84%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 14.17 PTS OR 0.04%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1973.75
silver:$24.69
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 100.87 DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.174% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.4444% DOWN 2 AND 0//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.505 UP 5 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.096 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.450 UP 6 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1078 DOWN 0.0028 or 28 basis points
USA/Japan: 140.44 DOWN 0.469 OR YEN UP 47 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2927 UP 0.0034 OR 34 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0033 OR 33 BASIS pts to 1.3221
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1502
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1528)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.94 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.444…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from TUESDAY at 3.873% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.923 DOWN 3 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 14.91 points or 0.19%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 80.13 PTS OR 0.49%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 100.38 PTS OR 1.75%
Spain IBEX UP 81.30 PTS OR 0.85%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 14.04 PTS OR 0.205%
WTI Oil price 78.89 12: EST
Brent Oil: 82.91 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 90.15 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 3//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.450 UP 6 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.315 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.1087 UP 0.0037 OR 37 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2939 UP .0046 or 46 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.3300 % UP 3 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 140.20 DOWN 0.708 //YEN UP 71 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.32102 UP .0023 CDN dollar, DOWN 23 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 78.78
Brent OIL: 82.76
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 3.863%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 0 BASIS PTS to 3.921%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 5 PTS AT 4.843%
USA dollar index: 100.73 DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.93 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.15 UP 0 AND 2/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 82.05 PTS OR 0.23%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 62.15 PTS OR 0.40%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.35 UP 0.51 PTS (3.68)%
GLD: $183,30 UP 0.89 OR 0.49%
SLV/ $22.91 UP .29 OR 1.28%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Dow Matches Record Winning Streak As Powell Keeps The Party Going
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 04:03 PM
And to think it was less than a year ago when a demonically hawkish Jerome Powell triggered what would end up being a brutal tech bear market, when during his 2022 improvised Jackson Hole speech the Fed chair warned pain, fire and brimstone was coming.
Well, what a difference a year makes: after a neutral FOMC statement which said nothing besides informing the public of a 25bps rate hike – which sent rates to the highest level in 22 years – and keeping most of the June language in line, the S&P 500 reversed earlier modest losses to spike to a session high after the Fed chair said that “there was disinflation”, and that inflation was a little better than expected. If that wasn’t enough, Powell unleashed another dovish shot when he said that the Fed can start rate cuts before 2% inflation is hit (which is important since Powell also said that 2% inflation won’t hit until 2025).
Unwilling to be cornered by the market, Powell also said that officials haven’t made a decision to go to every other meeting, and will instead “be going meeting-by-meeting.”
With stocks expecting a far more hawkish message from Powell, the S&P 500 promptly spiked to session highs, gains which were the first during Wednesday trading, and extended the latest rally into a fourth day. The index rose as much as 0.3% to the highest since early April – and March 2022 when the Fed first started hiking – before retreating a bit. Meanwhile, the Dow gained (and closed green) for a 13th consecutive session, matching the record stretch from January 1987!
However, things quickly reversed toward the end of Powell’s presser and and spoos slumped from a session high over 4,600 after Powell said that the Fed no longer was forecasting a recession, which the market quickly interpreted as hawkish forward guidance, and suggesting that conditions would stay higher for longer.
Ironically, the market – with its 15 millisecond attention span of a gnat – forgot that this is nothing new and is a recap of what the Fed’s June SEP showed, reversing the March economic forecast of a shallow recession. But since it was also headline scanning algos in control by this point, stocks promptly slumped to session lows.
What else happened? Well, in a day when the market correctly predicted that today’s FOMC would be a nothingburger with the smallest implied straddle for a Fed day since 2021…
… that’s exactly what happened, with most asset classes trading basically unchanged. Well that’s not exactly right: both stocks and yields fell…
… but as Bloomberg notes, under the hood the moves were not necessarily what you’d expect if the outlook was for lower yields. That raises the possibility that the rally in bonds may be driven by flows rather than the barely-changed policy outlook.
The decline in stocks was led by info tech, while communication services was up the most today (thanks to Google parent Alphabet’s better-than-expected earnings).
Banks were also solidly in the green after yesterday’s PacWest take under was somehow spun as bullish.
In credit, shorter-duration bonds have tightened more on the day while the Treasury curve is steeper.
The greenback eased lower after Powell said the central bank will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting and upcoming data will inform decisions; notes that either hike or steady policy possible at September meeting.
And with the dollar sliding, both precious metals…
… and bitcoin sprinted higher, showing clearly what will happen once the Fed is no longer hiking but is forced to start easing.
b) THIS AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC
Watch Live: Powell Tries To Convince Market To Please Stop Fighting The Fed, Which May Hike One More Time
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 02:31 PM
As we noted earlier, Powell has a problem on his hands: the unemployment rate is exactly where it was when the Fed started hiking last March…
… while financial conditions are now far easier than where they were last September…
… And adding insult to injury, the S&P is back where it was just as the Fed started hiking: hardly the outcome Powell and his henchmen had hoped for in their crusade to crush inflation.
Meanwhile, commodity prices are starting to ramp, sparking speculation that the ghost of Arthur Burns and the Fed error of the 1970s busted hiking cycle is alive and well.
So what is Powell to do? Well, he has this press conference to convince traders, algos and other dip buyers to stop doing that and sell. Will he be successful? Sit back and watch.
Below are some of the highlights from Powell’s presser:
- *POWELL: FOMC STRONGLY COMMITTED TO GETTING INFLATION TO 2%
- *POWELL: WON’T ACHIEVE STRONG LABOR MKT WITHOUT PRICE STABILITY
- *POWELL: FULL EFFECTS OF TIGHTENING YET TO BE FELT
- *POWELL: FOMC TO TAKE DATA-DEPENDENT APPROACH ON FUTURE HIKES
- *POWELL: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE
- *POWELL: HOUSING SECTOR PICKED UP BUT WELL BELOW 2022 LEVELS
- *POWELL: FOMC TO TAKE DATA-DEPENDENT APPROACH ON FUTURE HIKES
- *POWELL: CONTINUING SIGNS THAT LABOR SUPPLY, DEMAND BALANCING
- *POWELL: NOMINAL WAGE GROWTH HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF EASING
- *POWELL: PROCESS OF GETTING INF TO 2% HAS A LONG WAY TO GO
- *POWELL: HIGH INFLATION RATE POSES SIGNIFICANT HARDSHIP
- *POWELL: HIGHLY ATTENTIVE TO RISKS INFLATION POSES TO MANDATE
- *POWELL: HAVE BEEN SEEING EFFECTS OF TIGHTENING IN SOME SECTORS
- *POWELL: WILL TAKE TIME FOR FULL EXTENT OF HIKES TO BE REALIZED
- *POWELL: FOMC WILL TAKE CUMULATIVE TIGHTENING, LAGS IN ACCOUNT
- *POWELL: WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE DECISIONS MEETING BY MEETING
- *POWELL: WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE DECISIONS MEETING BY MEETING
- *POWELL: REDUCING INFLATION LIKELY TO MEAN BELOW-TREND GROWTH
- *POWELL: HAVEN’T MADE DECISION TO GO TO EVERY OTHER MEETING
- *POWELL: SLOWDOWN IN JUNE CPI WELCOME, BUT ONLY ONE MONTH
- *POWELL: POSSIBLE WE’D RAISE OR HOLD IN SEPT. IF DATA WARRANTED
- *POWELL: ECONOMIC RESILIENCE IS `A GOOD THING’
- *POWELL: AT MARGIN, STRONGER GROWTH COULD LEAD TO MORE INFLATION
- *POWELL: INTERMEETING DATA WAS BROADLY CONSISTENT W/ EXPECTATION
- *POWELL: INFLATION REPORT WAS `A LITTLE BETTER THAN EXPECTED’
- *POWELL: SEPT. MOVE IS DEPENDENT ON DATA; WE DON’T HAVE IT YET
- *POWELL: AS STANCE IS MORE RESTRICTIVE, INCREASINGLY FACE RISK
- *POWELL: FOMC WANTS CORE INFLATION TO COME DOWN, STILL ELEVATED
- *POWELL: SOME DISINFLATION W/O MORE UNEMP. IS `A REAL BLESSING’
- *POWELL: POLICY NOT RESTRICTIVE ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
- *POWELL: PREPARED TO FURTHER TIGHTEN IF IT’S APPROPRIATE
- POWELL: SLOOS WILL COME OUT NEXT WEEK AND CONFIRM WHAT YOU’D EXPECT; YOU’VE GOT PRETTY TIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE ECONOMY
END
Fed’s Powell: A September rate rise is possible if data warrants action
NEW YORK, July 26 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday at a press conference it’s possible the central bank will follow its latest rate rise with another one at the policy meeting scheduled for September.
“It is certainly possible we would raise the funds rate at the September meeting if the data warranted, and I would also says it’s possible that we would choose to hold steady at that meeting” if that’s what the data called for, Powell said. He noted the Fed will be making decision on monetary policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Powell said a wide range of data would be considered by the Fed as it deliberates on monetary policy.
II) USA DATA/
US New Home Sales Tumble In June, Prices Tumble
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 10:10 AM
After three straight months of huge resurgence (with last month’s massive spike), new home sales were expected to slow down in June and they did. New home sales dropped 2.5% MoM (the first drop since Feb), a miss from the 5% expected, but only because last month’s 12.2% surge in sales was revised down to a 6.6% rise…
Source: Bloomberg
New home sales are still up almost 24% YoY but the total new home sales SAAR plunged in June – is this the start of the catch-down to existing home-sales slump?
Source: Bloomberg
Median new home price fell 4.0% y/y to $415,400; average selling price at $494,700.
Other data – from the US Census Bureau – shows the first half of 2023 has seen the largest decline in US home prices on record…
Finally, we ask, if homebuilders are so bullish on this recovery in new home sales, why aren’t they grabbing permits to build with both hands?
Source: Bloomberg
Have they reached the limits of incentivization?
Source: Bloomberg
With mortgage rates back at cycle highs – well above 7.00% – the cost of ‘vendor-financing’ new home sales will eat into margins sooner rather than later.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
USA// COVID//VACCINE/MEDICAL PROBLEMS
END.
SWAMP STORIES
Hunter Biden and Joe Biden + their lawyers are now in deep trouble as Hunter’s lawyer impersonated a government//Republican lawyer asking that an amicus brief be removed. The judge was furious!
(zerohedge) 12 noon
Hunter Biden Plea Deal Unravels
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 11:45 AM
Update (1200ET): Hunter Biden’s plea deal with the Justice Department fell apart on Wednesday, according to federal prosecutors and the defense. The First Son had been expected to plead guilty to two tax misdemeanors and for not paying federal taxes on crime.
Regime media, meanwhile, is having a meltdown.
* * *
Hunter Biden’s lawyers face sanctions after they were accused on Tuesday night of an ethical violation by impersonating a government attorney in order to try and have an amicus (or “friend of the court”) brief removed from a filing in his criminal tax case.
The amicus in question is 448 pages of congressional testimony from IRS whistleblowers.
Earlier Tuesday, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith filed the brief with the court, which suggests that the judge, Maryellen Noreika, toss Hunter’s ‘sweetheart’ plea deal with Delaware prosecutors due to preferential treatment.
Later that day, someone from Hunter’s attorney Chris Clark’s former law firm called the Delaware clerk, allegedly pretending to be from the office of Chairman Smith’s attorney, Theodore Kittila, asking the court to remove the original filing – and the attached 448-pages of Congressional testimony from the whistleblowers.
The documents were then taken down and sealed.
The real Kittila quickly filed an outraged letter with the court, asking for a reversal.
“We promptly contacted the clerk’s office, and we were advised that someone contacted the court representing that they worked with my office and that they were asking the court to remove this from the docket,” wrote Kittila, adding “We immediately advised that this was inaccurate.”
More via the Daily Mail:
In a fiery email exchange with Kittila about the apparent skullduggery, Hunter’s lawyer Clark hit back, denying any improper conduct and claiming ‘the clerk took the filing down on their own accord’.
But the top Republican’s lawyer included in his filing a copy of an email from the Delaware clerk, backing up his claims.
‘The woman who called was a Jessica Bengels,’ he wrote adding her phone number.
‘She said she worked with Theodore Kittila and it was important the document was removed immediately,‘ the clerk, Sam Grimes, wrote to Kittila.
According to Grimes’s email, the alleged trickster is New York-based Latham & Watkins litigation services director Jessica Bengels.
Bengels’ LinkedIn page says she has been ‘litigation services counsel’ at the firm since January 2023, and has worked there since 2006. She went to Brown University then Fordham law school.
Clark worked for Latham & Watkins up until April this year. –Daily Mail
Hunter’s lawyers, meanwhile, claim that the filing contained “personal tax information,” and should therefore be sealed, despite the fact that the House Ways and Means Committee released the same documents publicly a month ago.
“Your attempts to publicly file my client’s personal financial information with no protections are improper, illegal and in violation of applicable rules,” Clark wrote to Kittila, adding “I stand by my statements.”
Judge is pissed
In a Tuesday afternoon order, Judge Noreika demanded Hunter’s lawyers explain themselves.
“It appears that the caller misrepresented her identity and who she worked for in an attempt to improperly convince the clerk’s office to remove the amicus materials from the docket,” reads the order. “Therefore, it is hereby ordered that, on or before 9pm today on July 25, 2023, counsel for defendant shall show cause as to why sanctions should not be considered for misrepresentations to the court.”
Hunter’s lawyers responded, claiming it was nothing more than a “an unfortunate and unintentional miscommunication.”
“The matter under consideration appears to stem from an unfortunate and unintentional miscommunication between a staff member at our firm and employees of the Court. We have no idea how the misunderstanding occurred, but our understanding is there was no misrepresentation,” wrote Hunter’s Latham & Watkins lawyer Matthew Salerno in response – blaming a convoluted game of telephone tag.
“We stand prepared to address any inquiries of the Court to rectify this misunderstanding. Should the Court consider this letter and the accompanying materials to be an insufficient explanation for this misunderstanding, we request an opportunity to more fully brief and be heard on the issues of concern to the Court,” the response continues.
As Jonathan Turley notes;
The entire matter could be a misunderstanding, but the clerk clearly did not think so. The problem for Hunter could be a delay in accepting the plea bargain. It is not clear what additional evidence the Court could secure on the issue, but it could want interviews on the record.
I still believe that it is unlikely that the court would refuse to sign off on the plea bargain. Most judges are leery of demanding more charges against a defendant. That is a matter usually left to the discretion of the prosecutors. The investigation and implications of this dubious deal will ultimately be left to Congress.
end
Time: 12;40
Hunter Biden Plea Deal Back In Play As Defense Agrees To Limited Protection
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 11:45 AM
Update (1240ET): It appears that Hunter Biden’s plea deal is back on the table, after the defense agreed to a limited agreement which covers 2014 to 2019 and only includes conduct related to tax offenses, drug use and gun possession.
Hunter will still plead guilty to tax misdemeanors for 2017 and 2018, however the agreement will also cover his tax-related matters for the preceding three years.
Both sides agree that this deal doesn’t shield Hunter from future charges.
As CNN reports;
The judge is asking Hunter Biden a series of questions about the facts that are included in the charging documents.
The judge asked Biden for the names of the foreign companies where he has worked.
“The Ukrainian energy company was Burisma,” Biden said. Biden has also mentioned his work for a Chinese energy company, CEFC. His ties to that company have come under intense scrutiny by House Republicans.
The judge asked Biden, “You did know that you owed tax money, right?”
Biden said, “Yes, your honor.”
end
1:32 PM EST
Hunter Biden Pleads Not Guilty As DOJ Deal Placed On Hold
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 11:45 AM
Update (1332ET): In yet another wild turn of events, today’s court session ended with Hunter Biden’s plea deal placed on hold, and Hunter pleading not guilty for the time being.
US District Judge Maryellen Noreika said she was not ready to accept the plea deal, and has asked both sides to file additional briefs explaining the legal structure of the revised deal.
The hearing was temporarily derailed when judge Noreika said she didn’t understand what Hunter Biden could still be charged with. She asked questions that exposed a difference of understanding between Justice Department prosecutors and Biden’s lawyer, Chris Clark.
“I don’t really understand the scope” of the agreement, Noreika said. She noted that Biden has had numerous foreign business dealings. At one point, she raised a hypothetical as to whether Biden could be charged as acting as an unregistered foreign agent under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. –Bloomberg
She also called the deal federal prosecutors reached with Hunter over his gun possession offense “unusual,” and that it contains some “non-standard terms,” such as “broad immunity” from other potential charges.
“We don’t usually make diversion agreements public,” she said.
Leo Wise, an assistant US attorney representing the government at the hearing, said that Biden could still be charged with a FARA violation. His statement prompted Clark to object to the scope of what Biden could still be charged with.
Noreika asked the prosecutors and defense lawyers to resolve their differences about the plea agreement and temporarily adjourned the hearing.
When the hearing resumed, Wise and Clark said they were in agreement that the non-prosecution aspects of the deal will be limited to only tax violations, drug offenses and a firearm violation during the years 2014 to 2019. Biden can still be charged for crimes outside the scope of the deal. -Bloomberg
Under the original plea agreement, Biden intended to plea guilty to two misdemeanor tax crimes committed in 2017 and 2018, and would avoid prison on the gun possession charge.
END
Par for the course!
Dem Rep. Admits: There Are Questions That Need To Be Asked On The Biden Scandal But “I Don’t Have Any”
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 10:20 AM
I suppose this represents progress in Washington. On “CNN News Central,” co-host John Berman actually asked a Democratic House member about the allegations against President Joe Biden. The response from Rep. Madeleine Dean (D., Pa.) captured the increasingly incomprehensible position of members as the evidence of corruption has mounted and implicated the President.
Dean admitted that there are legitimate questions that should be answered but stressed that she does not have any herself.
In other words, the public has a right to know, but I will not help them find out.
In the interview, Berman asked, “On the subject of what could be a pending impeachment inquiry into President Biden, what questions, if any, do you have about Joe Biden’s connection to Hunter Biden’s business dealings?”
Dean answered,
“I don’t have any at this point. But, certainly, there are questions that can be asked, and should be answered, if there was any connection. But we don’t see any evidence of that whatsoever. So, they’re making it up [out of] whole cloth.”
Berman then fairly followed up, “And where would you learn that evidence, if not for an inquiry?”
The response was an attack on the Committee and its chairman rather than answer the question:
Well, sadly, we won’t learn it by way of our Judiciary Committee, which is now led by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH). He’s Chair of Judiciary. And he’s proven himself to be very weak in the hearings that we have had this Congress. He’s just not hitting the mark on any of the things he’s trying to prove. And what is so dangerous is the willingness of Mr. Jordan and others on the Republican side of the dais in Judiciary to absolutely peddle in lies. They call all of our witnesses to swear to tell the truth. And yet, they peddle lies as they ask their questions. So, we’re not going to get good information under any kind of leadership from Mr. McCarthy or Mr. Jordan.”
The exchange was telling because the room for movement is being dramatically reduced by the new evidence. Members and the media first denied the legitimacy of the story, claimed that the laptop was Russian disinformation, and then insisted that there was no evidence. Even with two IRS whistleblowers saying that the Hunter Biden plea bargain was the result of political influence and special dealing, politicians and pundits continue to cite the plea bargain as the end of the matter, a spin predicted over a year ago.
What is striking is the lack of embarrassment about admitting that there are questions that must be answered on corruption while disclaiming any obligation as a member of Congress to assist in getting those answers. Like her colleagues, Dean has avoided any substantive questions of the claims of special dealing and influence peddling with witnesses testifying before her.
There is still an element of willful blindness in these answers. Despite the detailed testimony of the whistleblowers, millions in transfers to the Biden family, and proof that the President has lied for years, Dean is still maintaining “we don’t see any evidence of that whatsoever.” She continues to demand “where’s the evidence?”
It is also striking how the members and the media praised Republicans who broke from their party to support the impeachment of Donald Trump (as many did in the Nixon impeachment). Yet, there is no pressure on Democrats to show the same independence. It has been a unified front as Democratic members have opposed every effort to investigate or to expose the evidence on influence peddling by the Bidens.
This is why Aldous Huxley maintained that “facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”
THE KING REPORT
The King Report July 26, 2023 Issue 7040Independent View of the News For the past few months, while many experts went Cassandra over Fed rate hikes, falling y/y M2, and the decline in the Fed balance sheet, we repeatedly asserted that there was TOO MUCH liquidity in the system as evinced by Reserve Balances at the Fed Reserve Banks. Others are now acknowledging this.
@zerohedge: Where is all the liquidity coming from? Here is the answer: reverses are the new reserves, and it’s tick for tick. (Chart) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1683658318307373056
The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence jumped 7 points to 117 in July, a two-year high.
S&P CoreLogic 20-City home prices stunningly increased 0.99% m/m & -1.7% y/y in May. 0.7% m/m and -2.35% y/y were expected.
The S&P 500 Index has soared 20% since March 15; oil is at a 3-month high; gasoline is at an 8-month high; and the stronger than expected housing market is reflating prices. The Fed has a huge problem!
Bloomberg @markets: Wall Street is so convinced that the Fed’s restrictive policies are nearing an end that money managers are already trading as if rate hikes were a thing of the past
ESUs traded modestly higher during early Nikkei trading but turned negative at 20:06 ET. ESUs remained negative until a modest rally appeared after the 1 ET Nikkei close. The rally accelerated after China’s 2 ET close. ESUs and stocks sank after the 3 ET European opening.
When ESUs turned negative at 3:34 ET, traders aggressively bought, ESUs rose from 4582.75 to 4593.25 at 4:40 ET. Pattern traders wanted to be long stuff for the usual equity rally into the FOMC Meeting.
Sellers appeared; ESUs sank until the NYSE opening. Of course, the usual suspects then aggressively bought ESUs and stocks. ESUs jumped from a daily low of 4579.25 to 4592.50 at 9:55 ET. After the usual selling by pump & dumpers into early retail buying, traders aggressively bought ESUs and stocks when the 2nd hour arrived. ESUs rallied from 4585.00 to a daily high of 4597.25 at 11:47 ET. Yes, Virginia, the manipulation for the European close aided and abetted the rally.
After an hour of sideways trading, ESUs and stocks jumped to new highs. ESUs hit a new daily high of 4601.50 at 13:21 ET. ESUs and stocks then consolidated for 40 minutes. ESUs and stocks then jumped higher on intractable trader bullishness. ESUs hit a peak of 4608.75; they then slid 8 handles by 15:00 ET. The late manipulation was modest and ended at 15:17 ET. ESUs and stocks sank into the close.
USUs sank to 125 10/32 (-27/32) on the US housing inflation and renewed consumer jigginess. The decline breached the triple bottom at 125 21/32. However, the Street and financial media are stridently proclaiming that after its expected rate hike tomorrow, Fed rate hikes should end. So, traders aggressively bought the bond tumble. USUs hit a peak of 126 1/32 at 11:44 ET. They then rolled over and headed south while stocks rallied at midday and in the early afternoon. The action suggested that defensive asset allocators were again unwinding losing positions or offensive asset allocators were present.
CNBC: UPS, Teamsters reach contract to avoid strike, union says
Positive aspects of previous session
The DJIA rallied sharply and has been positive for 12 straight sessions (extremely overbought!)
Fangs soared ahead of Q2 results and because selling pressure from the Naz 100 rebalance ended
Negative aspects of previous session
Oil rallied; bonds sank again
Equities sank during the final hour of trading because too many traders are too long
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Will inflation in housing and energy commodities push CPI higher in coming months?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4566.86
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4580.62; 4552.42
Bronny James, son of LeBron James, suffers cardiac arrest at USC basketball practice
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/sport/bronny-james-cardiac-arrest
@alexstein99: Why are so many young athletes having heart attacks? Why can’t doctors figure it out?
Senate Democrats Sneak Gun Control into Military Funding Bill https://t.co/9BKgz0jTOm
China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang ousted after one-month absence
Qin was last publicly seen June 25 and his absence has been without explanation.
https://justthenews.com/world/asia/chinas-foreign-minister-qin-gang-ousted-after-one-month-absence
Jeffrey Epstein helped JPMorgan land Google co-founder Sergey Brin and his $4B in investments as client: lawsuit https://trib.al/VyqzOIw
Bloomberg Law @BLaw: The $158 million in payments that private equity titan Leon Black made to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein is under investigation by the US Senate Finance Committee.
After the close Microsoft reported Q4 EPS of 2.69, 2.56 consensus; revenue $56.19B, $55.49B expected. MSFT tumbled 3% in after-hour trading. It then rallied to a 2% gain before retreating to a 1.1% gain.
Bloomberg @markets: Microsoft reported tepid fourth-quarter sales growth, held back by decelerating demand for cloud-computing services while the software maker waits for a revenue boost from new AI-powered products.
Google reported Q2 EPS of 1.44, 1.32 consensus; Revenue $66.29B, $64.67B expected; Revenue ex-TAC $62.07B, $60.27B consensus. Google soared as much as 8.2% in after-hour trading.
Today – Stocks are extremely overbought on buying for Q2 results and the hope that the Fed will signal or indicate that it is finished hiking rates. Ergo, stocks are extremely vulnerable if the FOMC Communique and/or Powell are more hawkish than expected.
It seems reasonable that the Fed and Powell must be more hawkish than expected given the rabid asset inflation that is occurring in equities and the renewed inflation in energy and housing prices. If the Fed and/or Powell are dovish, stocks should soar. But that will increase the probability of a near-term top on Fang results. Fed dovishness would greatly increase the odds of equities bubbling up over the next several weeks and setting the table for an ugly Fall Classic tumble – after a rabid summer rally.
ESUs rose to 4606.75 on Google; they are 4592.25 at 20:25 ET. Was there a leak about the Fed/Powell?
Expected earnings: ADP 1.83, KO .72, T .60, HLT 1.58, HES .55, BA -.85, GD 2.57, UNP 2.75, ORLY 10.08, TER .62, EBAY 1.00, AWK 1.30, META 2.92, MAA 2.26
Expected economic data: June New Home Sales 725k; FOMC Rate Decision at 14:00 ET: 25bps hike; Powell Press Conference 14:30 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4336; 100-day MA: 4194; 150-day MA: 4122; 200-day MA: 4057
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,892; 100-day MA: 33,513; 150-day MA: 33,517; 200-day MA: 33,254
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4340.63 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4490.19 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4536.67 triggers a sell signal
On Monday night while appearing on Fox’s “Hannity”, Speaker McCarthy stated, “I believe we will follow this all the way to the end, and this is gonna rise to an impeachment inquiry the way the Constitution tells us to do this. And we have to get the answers to these questions.”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1683663746617442304
@TheBabylonBee: McCarthy Says 783rd Impeachable Offense By Biden Will Be The Last
@charliekirk11: Speaker Kevin McCarthy doubles down on his calls for Congress to begin an impeachment inquiry of Joe Biden: “It’s giving Congress the full power to get the information they need. It’s the way people should go about investigating.” https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1683902452595310593
Of course, McCarthy backtracked on his impeachment threat: @SpeakerMcCarthy: Our investigations are revealing more info every day about the Biden family’s shell companies and the sweetheart deal from the DOJ. The American public has a right to the truth. If evidence continues to rise to the level of an impeachment inquiry, House Republicans will act. (He was mocked on Twitter in size!)
Joe Biden Allegedly Interacted with Son’s Clients more than 200 Times
Visitor logs show Hunter Biden’s business associates visited the White House at least 80 times while Joe Biden was vice president, according to Fox News… Hunter Biden’s diary shows more than 100 events at the vice president’s residence while living at the Naval Observatory… https://t.co/N8BWueRYjc
IRS whistleblower says Biden’s book provided agents evidence of tax evasion – and plan to give Congress more damning WhatsApp messages
https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/tueliterary-license-irs-whistleblower-says-bidens-book-provided
@JPFreire: The judge in the Hunter Biden case just threatened Hunter’s lawyers with sanctions because someone on their team impersonated someone else to get an amicus brief taken down. This update from @MarshallCohen in his @CNN story:https://twitter.com/JPFreire/status/1683976627519201280/photo/1
Hunter Biden lawyer accused of deception to seal bid to block plea deal… to block the release of damning evidence ahead of his expected guilty plea to federal charges of tax evasion and weapons crimes… https://nypost.com/2023/07/25/hunter-biden-lawyer-accused-of-deception-to-seal-damning-evidence/
Hunter Biden investigation: Close Biden political aide worked for Weiss when inquiry began
Alexander Mackler served as press secretary in Joe Biden’s Senate office and, later, as legal counsel in his vice presidential office. Mackler managed the late Beau Biden’s successful campaign for Delaware attorney general in 2010…And Mackler served on the Biden-Harris transition team in 2020…
Mackler also appeared to have a close personal relationship with Hunter Biden. In emails found on Hunter Biden’s laptop, Mackler corresponded frequently with Hunter Biden and his business associates and even referred to Hunter Biden fondly as a “brother” in October 2018. Mackler was working under U.S. Attorney David Weiss in the office at that time, according to his LinkedIn page, which lists him as having worked in the Delaware U.S. attorney’s office from August 2016 to May 2019…
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/close-biden-political-aide-weiss-hunter
Biden’s ’embarrassing’ tripping incident, advancing age alarm Democrat allies: ‘This is so bad’
NBC report notes Biden using ‘extra-large font’ on teleprompters
https://www.foxnews.com/media/bidens-embarrassing-tripping-incident-advancing-age-alarms-democratic-allies-so-bad
@RNCResearch: BIDEN: “I don’t know what the difference between breaking your arm and having a mental breakdown is.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1683922308635713541
@greg_price11: Biden: “I said I’d cure cancer they looked at me like, why cancer? Because we can. We ended cancer as we know it.” https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1683923720908201997
@TheInsiderPaper: JOE BIDEN: “We’re still feeling the profound loss of the pandemic, as I mentioned earlier, over hundred people dead!” https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1683956488480620545
Biden’s dog Commander sent Secret Service officer to hospital, bit 6 others after replacing first pooch Major… in a four-month period after former first dog Major was ousted from the White House over similar aggressive behavior, according to internal Secret Service communications reviewed by The Post… https://nypost.com/2023/07/25/biden-dog-commander-bit-or-threatened-10-people-sent-one-to-hospital/
Former liberal icon @ggreenwald: That was so funny how they found cocaine in the White House – probably the most surveilled building on the planet – and after a week they were like “Yeah, we looked and we unfortunately can’t find who left it,” and the media said: “Oh, OK, too bad, thanks for looking.”
Family forced to pay to ship body of Marine killed after Pentagon policy change: ‘Egregious injustice’ – Nonprofit stepped in to pay $60,000 to move Sgt Nicole Gee’s remains to Arlington National Cemetery (No wonder US military recruitment is in the toilet!)
https://www.foxnews.com/us/family-forced-pay-ship-body-marine-killed-after-pentagon-policy-change-egregious-injustice
‘INFURIATED’: @CoryMillsFL ‘enraged’ after finding out a Gold Star family was forced to pay to move the body of their loved one. https://trib.al/IZqWbb5
Biden administration opens civil rights probe of Harvard legacy admissionshttps://trib.al/Ouw1aVs
@SenJohnKennedy: Democrats’ SCOTUS “ethics” bill is unconstitutional under Article III. Under our separation of powers doctrine, Congress doesn’t have the power to write a code of ethics for the Supreme Court any more than the Supreme Court has the power to write a code of ethics for Congress.
Barack Obama’s personal chef is seen swimming laps with ease – as questions are raised over how he drowned in just 8ft of water while paddle boarding at ex-president’s Martha’s Vineyard mansionhttps://t.co/jRmqmXMT8z
end GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING JONATHAN CAHN https://usawatchdog.com/dont-count-trump-or-god-out-jonathan-cahn/ Don’t Count Trump or God Out – Jonathan CahnBy Greg Hunter On July 25, 2023 In Political Analysis No Comments By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com Seven-time, best-selling author and renowned Bible expert Jonathan Cahn has written a new book called “The Josiah Manifesto” that talks about end times, God’s timing and ancient biblical prophecies coming true as a “guide for the End Times.” Cahn says President Donald Trump plays a role in the End Times talked about in the Bible. Cahn explains, “The leaders of our time have actually been following a template, ancient templates of leaders in the Bible when Israel was falling into judgment. The archetype for Donald Trump is a man named Jehu. Jehu was a wild guy. He was unpredictable, like Trump. He fought with everybody, like Trump. Nobody knew where he was at, like Trump. Yet, he’s called by God to rise to the throne. He actually makes an alliance with religious conservatives, like Trump. Jehu has an agenda to go to the capitol city and drain the swamp, like Trump. Jehu ends up standing head-to-head with the nation’s former first lady, like Trump. In the case for Jehu, it was Jezebel. In the case of Trump, it was Hillary Clinton. Jezebel was for Baal worship, which was child sacrifice. Clinton is one of the foremost proponents of abortion in the same way. Jezebel was on the national stage with her husband for 22 years and on her own for 14 years. Hillary was on the national stage with her husband for 22 years and on her own for 14 years. This is stunning. When Trump and Clinton came head-to-head, every poll said Clinton would wipe Trump away.”What about all the legal problems Trump is going through? Cahn says, “They can give charges against Trump. They can charge him and do whatever they want, but is that going to stop him? That’s another issue because Trump was impeached twice, and that did not stop him. Jehu is the only king of the Northern kingdom that the Bible says he did good. He did not do totally good. It was mixed. He did good, and he also messed up, but he was the only one of those kings that did good. . . . Now, I am going to tell your audience something I have not released before. Jehu was on the public stage for 28 years. . . . For Donald Trump, if they don’t stop him, they will try, but he still becomes president, his last year will be 2028. Of course, 28 is the number of Jehu with 28 years in public life. We shall see, and that is an exclusive for your audience. We shall see, but I don’t think you can count Trump out . . . and don’t count God out, and that’s more important. . . . One more thing, Jehu turned against the worship of Baal. That means he was against the killing of children. . . . Donald Trump was originally pro-abortion and then he turned pro-life. Jehu pulled down the temple of Baal. Donald Trump was more responsible for overturning Roe vs. Wade than anybody because of who he appointed to the Supreme Court.”In closing, Cahn says, “Josiah was a righteous King, and everybody was falling away from God. Josiah turned the nation of Israel around for a time. I believe we have to be like Josiah. . . . The End Times are not just dark and doom and gloom. The End Times is dark, gets darker and lights get brighter. We have to start getting brighter. The worst thing we can do is give into the darkness and be quiet and silent because we are afraid of the darkness. We are afraid of the darkness of the culture. We cannot do that. . . . Light pushed out the darkness. Darkness does not push out the light.”There is much more in the 52-minute interview.Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with seven-time, best-selling author Jonathan Cahn to talk about his upcoming book, “The Josiah Manifesto,” for 7.25.23.(https://usawatchdog.com/dont-count-trump-or-god-out-jonathan-cahn/)After the Interview:If you would like to pre-order Jonathan Cahn’s new book, “The Josiah Manifesto,” click here.(When you preorder, you will get four other Jonathan Cahn best-selling eBooks for free.)The actual book releases on September 5, 2023.If you want to see other best-selling books from Jonathan Cahn, click here.I will see you on THURSDAY |
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