SEPT 13/GOLD CLOSED IN NEW YORK AT $1911.40 UP $1.00 WHILE THE PREMIUM IN SHANGHAI GOLD IS CLOSE TO $100.00//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 16 CENTS TO $22.72//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $5.50 TO $910.55 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $1.65 TO $1251.10//ECB RAISES THEIR INTEREST RATE BY .25% TO 4% AND THAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE FINAL RISE//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS/EVOL NEWS//USA DATA: PPI SOARS AS DOES RETAIL SALES//UAW STILL HEADED FOR STRIKE AGAINST THE THREE AUTO COMPANIES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1909.90

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 22.64

USD  oz    PopupAM2000.89

PM2006.18

Historical SGE Fix

New York price at the time:  $1909.00

premium  $97.00

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Bitcoin morning price:, $26,400 UP271  Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $26,619 UP 490 dollars

Platinum price closing  $910.55 UP  $5.50

Palladium price;     $1251.10 DOWN $1.65

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

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EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,909.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/13/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 09/15/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 1
323 H HSBC 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 4


TOTAL: 4 4
MONTH TO DATE: 3,826

JPMorgan stopped 0/4 contracts.

FOR SEPT.:


FOR  SEPT:

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END

WITH GOLD UP $1.00

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS  AT  THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

Let us have a look at the data for today


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC  SIZED 1304 CONTRACTS TO 126,596 AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.23 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUGE SIZED 1076 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1076 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES. 

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.23). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME  SILVER CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1917 CONTRACTS ON BOTH EXCHANGES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE T.A.S.LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 


A STRONG  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 613 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 14.420 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S ZERO JUMP TO LONDON  OF 0 OZ//NEW TOTAL 13.350 MILLION OZ + OUR CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 0 MILLION OZ OF FUTURE SILVER STANDING FOR METAL//NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK:  2.0 MILLION OZ: NEW TOTALS SILVER STANDING: 15.350 MILLION OZ// /// / //HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI)   HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1076 CONTRACTS)/

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 days, total 5944 contracts:   OR 29.720 MILLION OZ  (660 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  26.655 MILLION OZ 

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE 

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 29.72 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1304  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.29 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 613  ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF  14.2 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON.+ 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 2.0 MILLION OZ//NEW TOTALS STANDING 15.350 MILLION OZ// /// WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1917 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY:  A  HUGE SIZED 1076  CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED  DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION.   THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (1076) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .

WE HAD 1  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  5,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL  SIZED 739 CONTRACTS  TO 441,960 AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 739 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $2.00 LOSS IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING 14.4448 TONNES    + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1994 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $2.00 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 2893  OI CONTRACTS (8.989 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2154 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 442,094

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2893 CONTRACTS  WITH 739 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2154 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2893 CONTRACTS OR 8.989 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED):  A FAIR 1994 CONTRACTS)

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2154 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (739) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2893 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 300 OZ/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH FAIR TAS LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4)  SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6:  FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1994 CONTRACTS 

SEPT

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  19,889 CONTRACTS OR 1,988,900 OZ OR 61.86 TONNES IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2209 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  61.86 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  61.86/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.74% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES 

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 61.86 TONNES (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED 1304  CONTRACTS OI TO  126,596 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE  A STRONG 613  CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC  613  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  613  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 1304 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 613  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1917   CONTRACTS 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 9.36 MILLION OZ  

OCCURRED DESPITE  OUR TINY   $0.23 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

 2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.46 PTS OR 0.11%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 38.70 PTS OR 0.21%/         /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 461.58 PTS OR 1.411%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.50 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT  7.2780  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP  TO 7.2853 /Oil UP TO 89.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  UP AT 93.00 / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3  CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 739 CONTRACTS  TO 441,960 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.00 ON WEDNESDAY.  

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2154  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  DEC 2154 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2154 CONTRACTS 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2893  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2154 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 739 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.00//WEDNESDAY COMEX.   AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1994 CONTRACTS.  THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   SEPT  (14.4448) (   NON ACTIVE MONTH)

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 14.4448 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $2.00) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2893 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.  THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. 

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 8.998 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (12.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 300 OZ//NEW STANDING 14.4448 TONNES   //  ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $2.00. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2893  CONTRACTS OR 289,300 OZ OR 8.998 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 203,115  poor

final gold volumes/yesterday   169,970  awful//speculators have left the gold arena

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oznil OZ















 




















   






 







 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil




 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today4  notice(s)
400 OZ
0.0126 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)  818  contracts 
  818,00 oz
2.5443 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month3826 notices
382600  OZ
11.900 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits:  NIL oz

customer deposits: 0

total customer deposits: nil oz

we had  0 customer withdrawals

total withdrawals nil oz

Adjustments; 1
i) JPMorgan//dealer to customer:  482.265 oz 15 kilobars

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER.

For the front month of SEPTEMBER we have an oi of 822  contracts having LOST 186 contracts.  We had

189 contracts were served on WEDNESDAY, so we gained an additional 3 CONTRACTS or AN ADDITIONAL 300 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of Sept.

Oct gained 538 contracts to 25,748 contracts.

NOV GAINED  1 CONTRACTS  to stand at 19

December LOST 441 contracts DOWN to 378,991 contracts.

We had  4 contracts filed for today representing 400    oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 4   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and  0  notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 14.4448 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN   INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.  

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,054,092.081  OZ   63.89 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  20,881 552.420 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,850,187,209   (337.48  tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,031,365.211 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,796,094 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 273,595 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

SEPT 14

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
620,196.230 oz
JPMorgan
















































.














































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory23,722.200 ooz
HSBC






 











































 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)1  CONTRACT(S)  
 (5,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)79 contracts 
(395,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2591 Contracts
 (12,955,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit

total dealer deposit: 0

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 deposit customer account:

i) Into HSBC:  23,722.200 oz

total customer deposit 23,722.200 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.901  million oz/273,630 million  or 50.07%

Comex withdrawals 1

i) Out of JPMorgan: 602,196.230 oz

total: 602,196.230   oz

adjustments: 

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.405 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 273,630 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT /2023 OI: 80   CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 33  CONTRACT(S).  WE HAD 33

CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY.  SO WE LOST 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL OZ WAS QUEUE JUMPED.

OCT GAINED 6  CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1100.

NOVEMBER GAINED 7 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 109

DEC. GAINED 1224 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 114,473 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for 5,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 82,505  strong/raid

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 51,367 poor

There are 42.145 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDERAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES

AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7,45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.87 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.63 TONNES

AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.31 TONNES

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES FORM THE GLD /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES

AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.459 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.565 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.926 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.106 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.294 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 189,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.281 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 275,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.471 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

end

Pam and Russ Martens..

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 14, 2023 ~

There may be a lesson here: don’t put the word “Republic” in the name of your bank; don’t hold a lot of uninsured deposits; and don’t have wads of unrealized losses on your investment securities.

If those lessons sound familiar, it’s because they played out in stunning fashion earlier this year when the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history occurred.

One of those banks that blew up was First Republic Bank, which was put into FDIC receivership on May 1 and later sold, under much controversy, to the already behemoth JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the U.S. (JPMorgan Chase can’t seem to stay away from criminal charges. It thus far has notched five felony counts in its belt and is currently being sued by the U.S. Virgin Islands for “actively participating” in Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking of minors by providing him with more than $5 million in hard cash over a decade.)

Now, another bank with the word “Republic” in its name is in deep distress. The holding company of the current problem bank is Republic First Bancorp (trading ticker FRBK), whose federally-insured banking unit is Republic Bank.

As of June 30, according to regulatory filings, Republic Bank held $6 billion in assets and had 35 branches in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. More than half of its deposits were uninsured. Its SEC filings are not up-to-date but in its 10-Q (quarterly report) for the period ending September 30, 2022, it had this to say about those uninsured deposits:

“As of September 30, 2022, our 100 largest bank depositors accounted for, in the aggregate, 16% of our total deposits. The majority of these deposits are not insured by the FDIC and could present a heightened risk of withdrawal, if such depositors materially decreased the volume of those deposits, it could reduce our liquidity. As a result, it could become necessary for us to replace those deposits with higher-cost deposits or FHLB borrowings, which would adversely affect our net interest income and, therefore, our results of operations.”

Republic First Bancorp’s stock price has declined by 96 percent in the past 12 months as of yesterday’s closing price. Its stock was delisted from Nasdaq last month and it closed at a stunning 27-1/2 cents in over-the-counter trading yesterday.

Republic First Bancorp is far from the only bank holding company that has suffered huge share price losses over the past 12 months. HomeStreet (ticker HMST) has lost almost 75 percent of its market value. It’s a West Coast bank with 60 branch offices in Washington state, Oregon, California and Hawaii. As of June 30, it had assets of $9.5 billion.

PacWest Bancorp, parent of Pacific Western Bank, has also suffered steep share price losses, losing over 70 percent in the past year. Pacific Western Bank has 77 branches and $38 billion in assets as of June 30.

A much smaller bank holding company, Carver Bancorp, is the parent of Carver Federal Savings Bank, which has 7 branch offices in New York and $713 million in assets as of June 30, according to the FDIC. Its stock has lost 56 percent of its value over the past 12 months.

This is just a tiny sampling of the ongoing wreckage to equity values in the banking sector – raising the very serious question as to how this is all going to shake out before year’s end.

-END-

South Africa’s top gold miner weighs CEO succession amid tilt to copper

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-09-13 12:06Section: Daily Dispatches

By Felix Njini
Reuters
Wednesday, September 13, 2023

NAIROBI, Kenya — Harmony Gold Mining boss Peter Steenkamp plans to retire at the end of next year as South Africa’s biggest gold producer by volume seeks new growth opportunities mining copper.

Steenkamp, who turns 64 in November, has been at the helm at Harmony since returning in 2016. In 2022, the company extended the veteran gold mining executive’s tenure by two years.

Steenkamp will leave around December 2024 and the company has “strong internal candidates to continue what we have built since 2016,” spokesperson Jared Coetzer told Reuters.

Steenkamp’s pending exit doesn’t change the strategy to shift to developing copper assets and looking for deals to grow the company, Coetzer added. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-top-gold-miner-weighs-ceo-succession-amid-tilt-copper-2023-09-13/

END

Ed Steer: A surprising and ugly commitment-of-traders report, but. …

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-09-13 13:07Section: Daily Dispatches

1:o5p ET Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

The weekend edition of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest, published by GATA board member Ed Steer, is headlined “A Surprising and Ugly Commitment-of-Traders Report, But. …” and it’s posted in the clear at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:

https://silverseek.com/article/surprising-and-ugly-cot-report

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This is a good move on the part of First Majestic: bypassing the crooked dealers.

(GATA) First Majestic opens its own mint, aims to sell all silver mine production to physical market

Company Announcement

Thursday, September 14, 2023

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada — First Majestic Silver Corp. is pleased to announce the launch of its 100%- owned and operated minting facility, First Mint LLC.

Located in Nevada, United States, First Mint will expand upon First Majestic’s existing bullion sales through vertically integrating the production of investment-grade fine silver bullion. This will allow First Majestic to sell a substantially greater portion of its silver production directly to its shareholders and bullion customers.

“The decision to open our own mint was made to ensure that our bullion store has adequate supplies to fulfill customer demand,” stated Keith Neumeyer, president and CEO.

“Last year we sold over 440,000 ounces of silver bullion, generating over $11 million in revenue. However, sales could have been substantially higher had we not been constrained by limited supply from our minting partners due to the incredible demand the silver industry is currently experiencing.

“By minting our own silver, we are able to reduce unit production costs and expedite delivery time to our customers. Our goal is to sell 100% of the silver we produce directly to the physical market.” …

… For the remainder of the announcement:

https://www.firstmajestic.com/investors/news- releases/first-majestic-announces-the-opening-of-a-minting- facility

end

Thursday, 9/14/2023 13:52

SHANGHAI GOLD prices jumped to yet another all-time high on Thursday, raising the precious metal’s cost in its No.1 consumer market to a record premium of $120 per Troy ounce above London quotes as China’s central bank eased monetary policy once more in a bid to reverse the country’s economic slowdown.

“Blindly copying foreign-capital flows is not a good investment strategy” says an article today in the communist state’s Economic Daily, warning domestic investors against fleeing the Chinese equity market – down again Thursday to within 1% of August’s 9-month low on the CSI 300 index – as foreign investors continue to sell stocks after pulling out a record $12.5 billion last month.

The People’s Bank on Monday warned FX traders from “disturbing” the currency market by “conducting speculative trades” – comments which saw the Yuan rally from last week’s new 16-year lows but without stemming Shanghai gold’s run of new record high prices.

With spot gold in London dropping towards $1900 per ounce today – the global trading and storage hub’s lowest Dollar quote in 3 weeks – the PM benchmark auction at the Shanghai Gold Exchange had earlier fixed at ¥474.58 per gram, the 5th new record high in a row and equal to $2029 per ounce.

Showing a median gap above London quotes of 0.3% across the 4 years to end-June 2023, the Shanghai premium has averaged 1.9% since the start of July and reached a record 6.3% today.

Chart of Shanghai Gold Exchange’s PM Fix, US Dollar equivalent price, versus London spot-market quotes. Source: BullionVault

“Volumes are ok but not great on SGE,” says bullion market strategist John Reade, now at the mining industry’s World Gold Council.

“So there is evidently a shortage of metal to buy, which probably means that [bullion] imports are being restricted. But the enthusiasm of the buyers, prepared to pay so much for gold, has really surprised me.

“I’ve never seen moves like this, and I’ve been tracking the Shanghai Gold Exchange since it started.”

The gold market’s No.1 mining producer, household consumer, central-bank buyer and net importer, China began restricting new gold import licences in July – repeating action it took to stem outflows of foreign currency in late- 2016 when the Yuan also fell hard on the foreign exchange market – after the CNY hit its lowest since 2007 against the Dollar yet failed to boost the country’s trade surplus.

Gold trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange grew 6.0% year-over-year in January to August, data from the China Gold Association said this week, while trading in gold derivatives contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange leapt by 37.0%.

But Thursday’s action saw the SHFE’s most active gold product – the December 2023 futures contract – peak at less than ¥472 per gram, more than ¥2 below the price achieved for physical bullion at the SGE’s afternoon benchmark auction.

With analysts cutting their growth forecasts for the world’s 2nd largest economy to 5.0% on average for 2023 – the weakest since 1990 outside of 2020’s Covid Crisis – ” [the] slowdown in the property sector and exports, [plus] US-China trade tensions, and the recent diversification of supply chains beyond China will add to the downside pressure,” says senior economist Bingnan Ye at Hong Kong finance house China Merchants Bank International.

“Weaker net external demand will continue to be a problem for China’s economy,” agrees Peking University professor Michael Pettis. “But while the trade surplus may have declined in recent months, it is still extraordinarily high, equal to 5.5% of [2023 to date] GDP, or about 1.2% of the GDP of the rest of the world.”

Today the People’s Bank in Beijing reduced the percentage of depositors’ cash which commercial lenders need to hold back, the 3rd such cut of the last 12 months, taking the required reserves ratio down to its lowest since 2007 and extending the run of monetary stimulus measures which saw Shanghai gold begin this run of new all-time highs in mid- July.

Ahead of key economic data for August, the move will “consolidate the foundation of economic recovery and keep liquidity ample,” the PBoC said in a brief statement.

Chinese data on Monday surprised analysts by showing a surge in commercial bank lending for August, led by mortgage loans and indicating that “rate cuts and policy easing in the property sector [have] helped to boost buyers’ sentiment” according to one economist, despite the continued debt distress, plunging sales and stalled construction projects among real-estate developers.

The European Central Bank in contrast raised its key interest rates Thursday, taking the deposit rate – which it held below zero until June last year – to a currency-union record of 4.0% per annum, ignoring weak data from No.1 regional economy Germany in favor of “reinforc[ing] progress” on cutting inflation across the 20-nation zone.

With new US data showing a smaller-than-expected rise in new jobless benefit claims for last week, plus stronger- than-forecast retail sales for August, that saw the Euro drop on the FX market, boosting the EUR gold price to €1782 per ounce as it fell near $1900.

The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce meantime held around £1530 after touching a new 2-week low £5 cheaper overnight.

Silver also held firmer in non-Dollar currencies but sank to 4-week lows for US traders and investors beneath $22.50 per ounce.

-END-

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: LITHIUM

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP TO 7.2780 

OFFSHORE YUAN:  UP TO 7.2853

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 3.48 PTS OR 0.11% 

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 38,78PTS OR .21% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 461.70 OR 1.41% 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:    ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN  TO  104.40 EURO FALLS TO 1.0731 DOWN 1 BASIS PT

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.702 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.32/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP  CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: UP//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.6440***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.432*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.713…** 

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.991

3j Gold at $1908.25 silver at: 22.60 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND  17 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 96.05//

3m oil into the  89  dollar handle for WTI and 93  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.32//  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.702% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8934 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9589well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. 

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.267 UP 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.363  UP 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.986  UP 0 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.95…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 8  BASIS PTS AT 4.378

end

2.a  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

USA EARLY MORNING REPORT

Futures Rise Ahead Of Data Dump, ECB Decision

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 08:09 AM

US equity futures rose ahead of a data dump that includes retail sales, PPI and jobless claims, tracking Asian markets higher while European bourses struggled for direction before the ECB’s rate decision (which will most likely be Europe’s last hike despite the continent slumping into a deep stagflationary recession) at 8:15am ET Thursday. At 7:45am ET, Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 0.4% ahead of Arm’s trading debut, S&P 500 Futures were up 0.37%. Oil neared a 10-month high; short-end Treasuries nudged up as did the euro. The dollar is flat, gold slipped and bitcoin jumped. Escalating strikes in Australia caused European LNG prices to swing.

In premarket trading, megacap tech names are higher with NVDA +1% and AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, and TSLA are all higher. AMC Entertainment rose 7.7% as the cinema chain disclosed that it raised about $325.5 million through the sale of 40 million shares. Visa fell 2.3% as the company takes the first step to let the biggest US banks sell their shares in the world’s largest payments network. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • CS Disco shares fell as much as 2.3%, after MoffettNathanson downgraded the legal software company to market perform from outperform.
  • Carnival gains 1.9% and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) is up 2% after Redburn Atlantic lifts both stocks to buy from neutral, saying the cruise line sector has now “exited intensive care.”
  • Carrier Global slides 1.7% after Mizuho analyst Brett Linzey cut the recommendation to neutral from buy, citing the HVAC firm’s outperformance amid a 34% rally this year and plans for shifts in the company’s portfolio.
  • First Solar rose as much as 3.3% on Thursday as BMO Capital Markets raised the stock to outperform from market perform noting that the stock’s continued pullback following its analyst day makes for a particularly attractive entry point.
  • HP Inc. fell 2.5% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it sold $158.5m worth of shares of the PC maker.
  • Ivanhoe Electric said it priced its offering of about 11.9m shares at $13.50 per share via BMO Capital Markets, JPMorgan. Its shares slump 14% in premarket trading.
  • PureCycle Technologies shares are down 10% after the plastics recycling company said its facility in Ironton, Ohio, is in the process of restarting following a series of problems since Aug. 7.
  • RTX Corp. drops 1.2% after BofA gives the aerospace and defense company its only sell-equivalent rating, moving to underperform from neutral based on near-term GTF engine-related risks.
  • Semtech shares are up 2.4% after the chipmaker reported second-quarter results that beat expectations. While it gave a revenue outlook that was below expectations, this prompted Susquehanna to upgrade the stock.
  • Vital Energy (VTLE) shares fall 7.6% after the company said it signed three agreements for Permian Basin assets with a total transaction consideration of about $1.17b.

The long-awaited Arm Holdings IPO priced at $51/share, the top end of the range, and will start trading on Thursday, marking the biggest initial public offering of the year. The stock is going to be closely watched by investors as a bellwether of big tech.

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 is little changed with gains led by energy as WTI futures climb 1.4% to new YTD highs. FTSE 100 outperforms peers, adding 0.6%, DAX lags, dropping 0.1%. Autos, consumer products and retailers are the worst performing sectors, while basic resources and energy outperform in Europe. Here are the biggest movers:

  • Deliveroo shares jump as much as 6.4% after Bloomberg reported that activist investor Sachem Head Capital Management has taken a stake, indicating the food delivery company could become a takeover target.
  • Trainline shares surge as much as 16%, the most in more than four months, after the train ticket-selling platform posted ticket sales ahead of estimates in the first half and began a share buyback. Analysts see the buyback as key positive, and upside to guidance even as Trainline reiterated its previous outlook.
  • Hilton Food shares rise as much as 7% to a one-year high after the British food-packaging company signed a long-term supply agreement with Walmart Canada.
  • Applus shares gain as much as 5.7% to €9.99 after I Squared Capital Advisors and TDR Capital LLP offered to buy 100% of the Spanish company for €9.75/share in cash, topping Apollo’s €9.50/share offer from June.
  • Uranium miner Yellow Cake rises as much as 5.3%, to a record high, after a surge in the metal that fuels nuclear reactors. Asian peers also rallied.
  • THG shares drop as much as 20%, the most since May 12, after the e-commerce company lowered its sales forecast for the year. The guidance downgrade will trigger negative sentiment on the stock over the next few months, according to JPMorgan.
  • Esker shares fall as much as 15%, the most since March 2022, after the software company reduced full-year margin guidance after a 26% drop in net income in the first half. Stifel said the profit decline was “disappointing” and largely a result of poor cost control.
  • Italian bank shares fall, leading declines among European lenders, as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said a windfall tax on banks’ profits could be tweaked as long as the state receives the same expected inflow.
  • Ipsos shares declined as much as 3.3% after the French market research firm cut its organic revenue growth forecast for the full year to a range of 3-4% from about 5%.
  • Autoneum shares drop as much as 5.3% to its lowest value intraday since March, after the auto-components maker set the offer price for its capital increase at CHF90.75 a share. The price is a 30% discount to Wednesday’s closing level. ZBK said the stock’s valuation premium against peers appears unjustified.

The euro fluctuated with money markets pricing in a two-thirds chance of another increase at the European Central Bank’s meeting. Crude climbed after a report from the International Energy Agency added to warnings of a supply shortfall. Soaring global oil prices are exacerbating persistent cost pressures in Europe even as economic growth flounders. By contrast, Wednesday’s US inflation report was in line with estimates, fanning hopes the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes.

“The market is split on the ECB right now and we have to acknowledge the hawkish shift in expectations over the last two weeks,” said Geoffrey Yu, senior strategist at BNY Mellon. “The risk-reward heading into the decision is not good for the euro.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose on the back of a rally in tech shares, as US inflation data overnight increased bets that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates next week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, poised to end a two-day losing streak, led higher by chip names such as TSMC, Samsung and Tokyo Electron. The tech sector was the biggest contributor to the gauge’s gain as investors in Asia dialed down expectations for Fed rate hikes next week after the latest reading on US inflation was broadly in line with estimates.

Equities in Japan also advanced, but those in Hong Kong and China dropped as distressed developer Country Garden is approaching another yuan bond vote deadline Thursday night and European officials launched a probe into Beijing’s EV subsidies. Energy shares gained as oil climbed toward a 10-month high.

In FX, the euro is marginally higher on the session ahead of the much-anticipated ECB decision, with market watchers split on whether the central bank will hike or hold later Thursday. The Bloomberg dollar spot index is down 0.1%. GBP and NOK are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, AUD and CAD outperform.

  • USD/JPY dropped as much as 0.3% to 147.02 before steadying near 147.30, after a key 20-year JGB auction
  • EUR/USD is little changed at 1.0728 after erasing earlier gains of as much as 0.2% ahead the ECB decision, in which either outcome may be unlikely to offer sustainable support to the euro
  • GBP/USD traded in a narrow range, 0.1% lower at 1.2474
  • The Australian dollar printed a fresh intraday high on a headline beat in employment change for August
  • The yuan traded in a tight range as traders waited for China’s economic data due Friday for further cues

In rates, treasuries little changed across the curve, lagging gains across core European rates ahead of ECB policy decision at 8:15am New York time, followed by President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. Money markets price in around 17bps of rate-hike premium for the decision. German 10-year bonds outperform comparable USTs and gilts. US yields are within 1bp of Wednesday’s closing levels, off session low; 10-year near 4.25% trails bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp-3bp. Dollar IG issuance slate includes a couple of 5Y, 10Y deals; moderate session Wednesday saw around $2b price, with another quiet session expected Thursday. US economic data slate includes August retail sales, PPI, weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and July business inventories (10am). Demand for Japanese 20-year bonds at auction was the strongest since May 2020, soothing concerns about a potential normalizing of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan.

In commodities, WTI trades within Wednesday’s range, adding 0.6% to trade around $89. Most base metals trade in the green. Spot gold is little changed at $1,907/oz. Spot silver loses 1.1% near $23. Bitcoin is incrementally firmer and continues to hold above the $26k mark with specifics sparse and overall action limited ahead of a packed agenda.

Looking to the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the ECB’s latest monetary policy decision, along with President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, US data releases US include retail sales and PPI for August, along with the weekly initial jobless claims.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,476.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 453.86
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 162.80
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 505.40
  • Nikkei up 1.4% to 33,168.10
  • Topix up 1.1% to 2,405.57
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 18,047.92
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,126.55
  • Sensex down 0.1% to 67,382.96
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,186.55
  • Kospi up 1.5% to 2,572.89
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.65%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0739
  • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $92.59/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,906.47
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 104.69

Top Overnight News

  • Beijing has attacked the EU’s anti-subsidies investigation into China’s electric car industry as a “naked protectionist act” and warned that it will have a negative impact on relations in its first official comments on the probe. FT
  • Moody’s cut China’s crisis-hit property sector’s outlook to negative from stable, citing economic growth challenges the ratings agency said would dampen sales despite government support. RTRS
  • China cuts the RRR rate by 25bp as the country’s economic outlook brightens. This cut is minor in isolation, but it’s just the latest in a long series of steps aimed at bolstering growth. RTRS
  • Sweden’s CPI in Aug drops to +4.7%, down from +6.4% in Jul and below the Street’s +4.9% forecast. RTRS
  • The ECB’s hike-or-hold decision will settle what’s become a cliffhanger as inflation and growth signals spook officials. Money markets are pricing in a 64% chance of a 25-bp increase, while economists are almost evenly split on the outcome. Bloomberg Economics’ base case is for a hike, though not a strong conviction call. BBG
  • UAW strikes at America’s Big Three automakers may go ahead as unions and employers remain far apart before tonight’s deadline. The companies are offering a 17.5% to 20% raise over the next four-and-a-half years. Joe Biden has few options left to avert industrial action. BBG
  • Ray Dalio doesn’t want bonds in his portfolio as the huge US deficit makes it harder to keep rates at levels that are attractive for creditors, but not too high to harm the issuer. The debt situation is at a “turning point of acceleration,” he said. Right now, “cash I think is good.” BBG
  • House Republicans failed to move forward on a procedural vote advancing a bill to fund the Defense Department after it became clear they did not have enough votes to secure its passage. The inability to move forward on a basic step to fund the government — the House’s top responsibility enshrined in the Constitution — offered an example of just how difficult it will be for McCarthy and the ideologically fractured Republican majority to find consensus, keep the government open and avert blame if a shutdown is triggered. Wa Po
  • Visa may amend its share structure to allow the biggest US banks to eventually sell their shares, currently valued at $96 billion. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were predominantly firmer and mostly shrugged off the indecision seen on Wall St in the aftermath of a somewhat hawkish-leaning US inflation report. ASX 200 was marginally higher amid strength in the commodity-related and financial sectors, while the latest employment data provided encouragement but was predominantly fuelled by an increase in part-time jobs. Nikkei 225 outperformed and rose back above the 33,000 level amid anticipation of incoming stimulus and with the index unfazed by disappointing machinery tool orders. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy after a substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC and with strength in energy and power names offset by the pressure on EV makers after reports the European Commission is to begin an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs.

Top Asian News

  • China Passenger and Car Association head said China’s EV industrial chain is highly competitive and urges the EU to take an objective view of the industry’s development, while he added that China’s strong EV exports are not the outcome of heavy state subsidies.
  • Japan’s new economy minister Shindo said they will mobilise all possible policy measures to support the economy and will consider bold measures to ease the pain of price hikes, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese Commerce Ministry says the EU’s move to probe Chinese EV imports has a negative impact on China-EU economic trade and relations; China is to pay close attention to EU measures on EVs.

European bourses are contained with an incremental positive bias emerging after a relatively mixed open, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% Newsflow has been limited ahead of the ECB with action primarily a continuation of the marginally firmer APAC session after initial Wall St. indecision. Sectors remain mixed with outperformance in Basic Resources after broker action for Rio Tinto and Anglo American, Energy benefits from benchmark action while Autos lag given pressure in BMW following a Barclays downgrade. The strong action in Mining and Energy names is leading to outperformance in the FTSE 100 +0.7%, with support also coming via a bounceback in BP. Stateside, futures are faring a touch better than European peers, ES +0.3%, in post-CPI trade as we look towards numerous key data points incl. Retail Sales, IJC and PPI.

Top European News

  • French Energy Watchdog CRE says the next theoretical calculation of electricity tariffs should lead to a ~10% increase at the beginning of 2024.
  • Norges Bank Regional Network Survey: Regional network: Prospects for weak growth; In the period to winter, contacts expect growth to slow. Click here for more detail & analysis.
  • Germany VCI Chemical Industry Association says Q2 production fell 8% Y/Y (-14% Y/Y ex-pharma).

FX

  • Aussie underpinned by a hot headline and higher labour participation rate on 0.6400 handle vs. Buck.
  • DXY regains poise after post-US CPI flip-flop within a 104.550-80 range.
  • Euro elevated above 1.0700 against the Dollar awaiting a twist or stick ECB rate call.
  • Loonie firm vs. Greenback between 1.3555-25 bounds and supported by WTI ahead of Canadian wholesale trade.
  • Sterling lags after slump in RICS UK house price balance, with Cable sub-1.2500 and leaning on circa 1bln option expiries at 1.2475.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1874 vs. exp. 7.2784 (prev. 7.1894).
  • PBoC asked some banks to hold off on immediate dollar purchases in the interbank market to square FX positions with banks told to hold such open FX positions until net exposure hits a certain level, according to Reuters sources.
  • Turkey introduced 25% required reserves for FX-protected Lira deposits with maturities of up to 6 months, according to the Official Gazette.
  • Click here for more detail.
  • RBA watcher McCrann, following the Australian jobs data, says “Likely no more rate hikes but don’t hold your breath for cuts”, via the Herald Sun.

Fixed Income

  • Debt futures narrowly divergent ahead of ECB and more tier one US data.
  • Bunds and Gilts back above par between 130.84-41 and 95.75-37 respective bounds.
  • T-note marginally softer within 110-05+/109-29 confines.

Commodities

  • WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures remain firm in European trade with sentiment underpinned by this week’s trio of oil market reports which all ultimately flagged a tighter market in Q4.
  • Dutch TTF is currently modestly softer intraday after rallying some 6% yesterday. Desks cite another extension to the Norwegian Troll field maintenance. Furthermore, Chevron’s Australian LNG operations are under threat of an escalation in strikes.
  • Spot gold treads water just above USD 1,900/oz but around yesterday’s lows, with price action contained ahead of upcoming risk events, with the next notable level to the downside under 1,900/oz being the August low at USD 1,884.89/oz.
  • Base metals are mixed/mostly firmer following the constructive tone from the APAC region and the softer Dollar, although price action is contained by the looming risk events
  • Australian union official noted a significant escalation in industrial action at Chevron’s (CVX) Australian LNG facilities on Thursday and said the decision on whether to strike for the full 24 hours is being taken on a case-by-case basis across the 3 facilities involved, according to Reuters.
  • Chevron (CVX) says a fault has impacted 25% of LNG production at Australia’s Wheatstone plant, according to a spokesperson; the cause has been identified and restart activities have commenced, domestic gas facility unaffected. Subsequently, Australia’s Offshore Alliance Union 1411 turbine on the Wheatstone downstream facility and one of the trains is now down to 50% capacity.
  • Cochilco says average silver price to reach USD 24.60/oz this year, supply will go 1.8%; global silver demand to fall 9.4% in 2023; market will maintain a deficit.

Geopolitics

  • North Korean leader Kim said the meeting with Russian President Putin brought bilateral ties to a new level, while they agreed to further strengthen strategic and tactical cooperation and to step up cooperation to fight imperialists’ military threats, provocations and tyranny, while Kim was briefed on technical details about Russian space vehicles and invited Putin to visit North Korea which Putin accepted, according to KCNA.
  • Taiwan’s Defence Ministry says 13 Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defence zone on Thursday.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Aug. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
    • Aug. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 1.3%, prior 0.8%
    • Aug. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
    • Aug. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.4%
  • 08:30: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 216,000
    • Sept. Continuing Claims, est. 1.69m, prior 1.68m
  • 08:30: Aug. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. -0.1%, prior 1.0%
    • Aug. Retail Sales Control Group, est. -0.1%, prior 1.0%
    • Aug. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 1.0%
    • Aug. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.7%
  • 10:00: July Business Inventories, est. 0.1%, prior 0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After much anticipation, markets mostly took the US CPI release in their stride yesterday, with bonds and equities fairly steady after the release, before a bond rally eventually took hold. The main headlines were much as expected, and monthly CPI for August came in at +0.6% thanks to a sharp uptick in gasoline prices. But with core coming in a tenth stronger than consensus at +0.3%, investors are still pricing in a near-evens chance of another Fed rate hike this year, whilst the 2yr inflation breakeven hit another 4-month high. So there’s still a lingering concern that inflation could remain above target, and that debate over whether to deliver another hike is a topical one as we arrive at the ECB’s latest decision today.

In terms of the details of that CPI release, the big story was that spike in gasoline prices (+10.6% on the month) which drove the majority of the overall headline gain (+0.6%). In fact, that +0.6% reading was the strongest monthly inflation print since June 2022, and was still higher than any month throughout the entire 2010s. In turn, that sent the year-on-year measure up to +3.7%, which was a bit higher than the +3.6% expected by the consensus.

Whilst the headline figure was strong, inflation swaps had already been pricing in a +0.64% headline print, so it wasn’t a big surprise. Instead, the more concerning story came from the core print, which moved back up to +0.3% (vs. +0.2% expected), albeit a low +0.3% with the unrounded number at +0.27%. Furthermore, the “supercore” measure that also excludes shelter and used cars and trucks spiked up to a 6-month high of +0.4%. A big driver of that was a strong performance for the transportation services category, which includes things like vehicle insurance and airline fares. That was up by +2.0% on the month, and makes up almost 6% of the CPI basket. A slightly concerning underlying trend was also shown by Cleveland Fed’s estimates of median and trimmed mean inflation, both of which were at their highest in four months at +0.3% mom. The release did little to affect near-term market pricing for the Fed, as futures see a 46% chance of another hike by year-end. But markets moved to price more 2024 Fed cuts during the day, with end-24 futures falling -6.6bps from the high for the cycle on Tuesday.

For now, however, the focus will be on the ECB, which is announcing its latest policy decision today at 13:15 London time. Unusually, however, there’s quite a bit of uncertainty about whether it’ll deliver another hike today, or whether it’ll pause the hiking cycle after a run of 9 consecutive moves. Market pricing is currently pointing to a 66% likelihood of a hike as we go to press this morning, which is up from 38% at the end of last week. In the meantime, the consensus of economists on Bloomberg is narrowly suggesting that the ECB will stay on hold, and that’s what our own European economists at DB expect as well. In their preview (link here), they write that recent data has shown increasing evidence that tighter monetary policy is being transmitted, which favours a pause. Today will also see the release of the ECB’s latest growth and inflation forecasts, so one to watch out for.

With that meeting to look forward to, sovereign bonds sold off in Europe, and yields on 10yr bunds (+0.8bps), OATs (+1.2bps) and BTPs (+4.4bps) all ended the day higher. Meanwhile for Treasuries, we initially saw a big sell-off after the CPI report came out, and the 10yr yield moved as high as 4.34% intraday. But that swiftly reversed course, and by the end of the session the 10yr yield closed -3.2bps lower at 4.25%, with a further -2.2bps decline overnight to 4.23%.

Otherwise, the biggest outperformer were UK gilts, where the 10yr yield fell -6.9bps. That followed the release of monthly GDP data for July, which contracted by -0.5% (vs. -0.2% expected), and in response, investors also lowered the likelihood of a hike from the BoE next week to 72%, its lowest since May. We got more downbeat data out of the UK overnight, with the RICS house price balance survey for August falling from -53% to -68% (vs. -55% expected), a new post-GFC low.

For US equities, the main story yesterday was one of modest advances, with the S&P 500 up +0.12%. That was mostly driven by the more cyclical sectors, with consumer discretionary stocks (+0.90%) seeing the biggest advances. Tech stocks were a slight outperformer, and the NASDAQ (+0.29%) and the FANG+ index (+0.42%) both rose as well. On the other hand, small-cap stocks struggled, leaving the Russell 2000 (-0.78%) at its lowest level since late June. And over in Europe there were also more widespread losses, with the STOXX 600 (-0.32%) and the DAX (-0.39%) losing ground ahead of the ECB decision.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets are trading higher for the most part, with strong gains for the Nikkei (+1.40%) and the KOSPI (+0.96%). US equity futures are also pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.28%. However, not every index is seeing strong advances overnight, as the Hang Seng is down -0.22% this morning, whilst the CSI 300 (-0.09%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.04%) have seen little change. On the data side, we also heard that Australia’s unemployment rate had held steady in August at 3.7%, with employment up by a stronger-than-expected +64.9k (vs. +25.0k expected).

Elsewhere this morning, oil prices are at their highest level since November, with Brent crude currently trading at $92.31/bbl. That’s also the case for WTI, which is at $88.95/bbl. The c.30% oil price rally since late June has been an unhelpful trend for central banks as they try to return inflation back to target. In Europe, we also saw natural gas futures rise +6.52% yesterday to a 2-week high of €36.82/MWh amid concerns about supply disruption.

There wasn’t much other data of note yesterday, although in the US, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the rate on a 30yr fixed mortgage was back up to 7.27%. That’s just beneath the 7.31% reported in a couple of weeks in August, which is the highest rate seen since 2000.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the ECB’s latest monetary policy decision, along with President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, US data releases US include retail sales and PPI for August, along with the weekly initial jobless claims.

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/

tme-logoNS

DXY climbs & US futures bid whilst European bourses trade contained ahead of ECB – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 06:34 AM

  • European bourses are generally contained pre-ECB, though the FTSE 100 sees marked outperformance
  • Stateside, futures fare slightly better than mainland European peers ahead of numerous US data points
  • DXY back to a 104.80 peak, AUD underpinned post-jobs with EUR & GBP rangebound
  • Debt futures experience modest divergence going into the ECB where a hike is priced with around 65% probability
  • Crude benchmarks continue to benefit from the energy reports while metals are mixed
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, PPI, NZ Manufacturing PMI, ECB Policy Announcement & ECB President Lagarde’s Press Conference, Supply from US.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are contained with an incremental positive bias emerging after a relatively mixed open, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%
  • Newsflow has been limited ahead of the ECB with action primarily a continuation of the marginally firmer APAC session after initial Wall St. indecision.
  • Sectors remain mixed with outperformance in Basic Resources after broker action for Rio Tinto and Anglo American, Energy benefits from benchmark action while Autos lag given pressure in BMW following a Barclays downgrade.
  • The strong action in Mining and Energy names is leading to outperformance in the FTSE 100 +0.7%, with support also coming via a bounceback in BP.
  • Stateside, futures are faring a touch better than European peers, ES +0.3%, in post-CPI trade as we look towards numerous key data points incl. Retail Sales, IJC and PPI.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Aussie underpinned by a hot headline and higher labour participation rate on 0.6400 handle vs. Buck.
  • DXY regains poise after post-US CPI flip-flop within a 104.550-80 range.
  • Euro elevated above 1.0700 against the Dollar awaiting a twist or stick ECB rate call.
  • Loonie firm vs. Greenback between 1.3555-25 bounds and supported by WTI ahead of Canadian wholesale trade.
  • Sterling lags after slump in RICS UK house price balance, with Cable sub-1.2500 and leaning on circa 1bln option expiries at 1.2475.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1874 vs. exp. 7.2784 (prev. 7.1894).
  • PBoC asked some banks to hold off on immediate dollar purchases in the interbank market to square FX positions with banks told to hold such open FX positions until net exposure hits a certain level, according to Reuters sources.
  • Turkey introduced 25% required reserves for FX-protected Lira deposits with maturities of up to 6 months, according to the Official Gazette.
  • Click here for more detail.
  • RBA watcher McCrann, following the Australian jobs data, says “Likely no more rate hikes but don’t hold your breath for cuts”, via the Herald Sun.
  • Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

  • Debt futures narrowly divergent ahead of ECB and more tier one US data.
  • Bunds and Gilts back above par between 130.84-41 and 95.75-37 respective bounds.
  • T-note marginally softer within 110-05+/109-29 confines.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures remain firm in European trade with sentiment underpinned by this week’s trio of oil market reports which all ultimately flagged a tighter market in Q4.
  • Dutch TTF is currently modestly softer intraday after rallying some 6% yesterday. Desks cite another extension to the Norwegian Troll field maintenance. Furthermore, Chevron’s Australian LNG operations are under threat of an escalation in strikes.
  • Spot gold treads water just above USD 1,900/oz but around yesterday’s lows, with price action contained ahead of upcoming risk events, with the next notable level to the downside under 1,900/oz being the August low at USD 1,884.89/oz.
  • Base metals are mixed/mostly firmer following the constructive tone from the APAC region and the softer Dollar, although price action is contained by the looming risk events
  • Australian union official noted a significant escalation in industrial action at Chevron’s (CVX) Australian LNG facilities on Thursday and said the decision on whether to strike for the full 24 hours is being taken on a case-by-case basis across the 3 facilities involved, according to Reuters.
  • Chevron (CVX) says a fault has impacted 25% of LNG production at Australia’s Wheatstone plant, according to a spokesperson; the cause has been identified and restart activities have commenced, domestic gas facility unaffected. Subsequently, Australia’s Offshore Alliance Union 1411 turbine on the Wheatstone downstream facility and one of the trains is now down to 50% capacity.
  • Cochilco says average silver price to reach USD 24.60/oz this year, supply will go 1.8%; global silver demand to fall 9.4% in 2023; market will maintain a deficit.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US President Biden said Republicans want to impeach him because they want to shut down the government. In relevant news, GOP Senator Thune said a stopgap spending bill will be needed to avoid a government shutdown, according to Reuters.
  • US President Biden is to address budget cuts and government shutdown in Thursday’s speech at 19:45BST/14:45ET, according to a White House Statement.
  • UAW President said they will not allow the negotiations to drag out for months and that all three wage offers from the Detroit 3 automakers are inadequate, while the UAW rejected profit-sharing proposals. Furthermore, the sides are still very far apart on key priorities and they are preparing to strike, while UAW plans to initially strike at a limited number of facilities and would announce more plants as bargaining continues if no deal is reached, as well as noted that an all-out strike is still a possibility.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • French Energy Watchdog CRE says the next theoretical calculation of electricity tariffs should lead to a ~10% increase at the beginning of 2024.
  • Norges Bank Regional Network Survey: Regional network: Prospects for weak growth; In the period to winter, contacts expect growth to slow. Click here for more detail & analysis.
  • Germany VCI Chemical Industry Association says Q2 production fell 8% Y/Y (-14% Y/Y ex-pharma).

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • UK RICS Housing Survey (Aug) -68.0 vs. Exp. -56.0 (Prev. -53.0)
  • Swedish CPIF YY (Aug 2023) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 6.4%); MM (Aug 2023) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.2%)
  • Swedish CPIF Ex Energy YY (Aug) 7.2% vs. Exp. 7.40% (Prev. 8.00%); Ex Energy MM (Aug) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.10% (Prev. 0.40%)

GEOPOLITICS

  • North Korean leader Kim said the meeting with Russian President Putin brought bilateral ties to a new level, while they agreed to further strengthen strategic and tactical cooperation and to step up cooperation to fight imperialists’ military threats, provocations and tyranny, while Kim was briefed on technical details about Russian space vehicles and invited Putin to visit North Korea which Putin accepted, according to KCNA.
  • Taiwan’s Defence Ministry says 13 Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defence zone on Thursday.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is incrementally firmer and continues to hold above the USD 26k mark with specifics sparse and overall action limited ahead of a packed agenda.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks were predominantly firmer and mostly shrugged off the indecision seen on Wall St in the aftermath of a somewhat hawkish-leaning US inflation report
  • ASX 200 was marginally higher amid strength in the commodity-related and financial sectors, while the latest employment data provided encouragement but was predominantly fuelled by an increase in part-time jobs.
  • Nikkei 225 outperformed and rose back above the 33,000 level amid anticipation of incoming stimulus and with the index unfazed by disappointing machinery tool orders.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy after a substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC and with strength in energy and power names offset by the pressure on EV makers after reports the European Commission is to begin an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • China Passenger and Car Association head said China’s EV industrial chain is highly competitive and urges the EU to take an objective view of the industry’s development, while he added that China’s strong EV exports are not the outcome of heavy state subsidies.
  • Japan’s new economy minister Shindo said they will mobilise all possible policy measures to support the economy and will consider bold measures to ease the pain of price hikes, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese Commerce Ministry says the EU’s move to probe Chinese EV imports has a negative impact on China-EU economic trade and relations; China is to pay close attention to EU measures on EVs.

DATA RECAP

  • Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Jul) -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. 2.7%); YY (Jul) -13.0% vs. Exp. -10.7% (Prev. -5.8%)
  • Australian Unemployment Rate (Aug) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%); Employment (Aug) 64.9k vs. Exp. 23.0k (Prev. -14.6k)
  • Australian Participation Rate (Aug) 67.0% vs. Exp. 66.7% (Prev. 66.7%); Full-Time Employment (Aug) 2.8k (Prev. -24.2k)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.46 PTS OR 0.11%   //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 38.70 PTS OR 0.21%/         /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 461.58 PTS OR 1.411%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.50 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT  7.2780  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP  TO 7.2853 /Oil UP TO 89.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  UP AT 93.00 / Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

//NORTH KOREA/CHINA/RUSSIA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

CHINA/

China squeezes offshore funding as rates rise.  

(Bloomberg)

Yuan’s Offshore Funding Squeeze May Have A Ways To Go

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 07:20 AM

By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Yuan liquidity in the offshore market tightened significantly this week, with the one-month interbank borrowing cost in Hong Kong surging over 120bps, the most since January 2021. Three-month Hibor for the offshore yuan jumped for a sixth straight week, exceeding 4.2% and reaching the highest since November 2018.

Chinese policymakers, taking advantage of favorable seasonality, appear determined to choke off yuan bears as much as they can. The cost of funding offshore is poised to climb further before month- and quarter-end.

The squeeze is making it much more expensive to borrow (and short-sell) the yuan offshore, adding teeth to warnings from Beijing against “one-way and pro-cyclical bets” on the Chinese currency by foreign speculators. August and September typically see the cost of yuan funding climb in Hong Kong ahead of China’s “Golden Week” national holiday in early October, according to data over the past decade compiled by Bloomberg.

Quarter-end, on top of a market hiatus that sometimes lasts as long as 10 calendar days (domestic trading will be halted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 8 this year), means funding pressure is unusually heavy in September, second only to December. The PBOC is well-aware and taking full advantage of such seasonality to shake up the offshore market. The central bank said on Wednesday it plans to issue more yuan-denominated bills than are maturing in Hong Kong next week, making the life of yuan bears even more difficult. State-owned banks, meanwhile, refrained from providing adequate CNH liquidity via the swap market, according to traders who asked not to be identified as they are not allowed to speak publicly.

September is also the month when a long stretch of yuan weakness typically nears an end. Greenback purchases tend to pick up in the summer, when Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms declare and pay out dividends. This year’s payment totaled $80.1 billion, of which $68 billion was due in June, July and August, according to Bloomberg calculations. The seasonal outflow, coinciding with a deterioration in Chinese economic data, led to a 2%-plus currency selloff from the end of May to the end of August.

The funding squeeze, taking place at an opportune time, appears designed to achieve the maximum FX market impact, now that dividend outflows taper off while the latest credit and inflation data show signs of economic stability in China. It provides the PBOC with an additional tool to anchor the currency after short-sellers grew more adamant in challenging the daily fixings.

“PBOC’s aggressive efforts are indeed paying off,” Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York, wrote on Wednesday, while acknowledging it might be too early to “call a trend change” in dollar-yuan. Policymakers want to stop the currency from weakening further “as much as they can” and the yuan will be “allowed to follow” if the dollar retreats another 3-5%, Bechtel noted.

The offshore funding squeeze has so far had little impact on the onshore cost of borrowing, with benchmark Shibor rates picking up slightly yet still below their summer peaks. Should the trend persist, the issuance of dim sum bonds — offshore debt denominated in yuan — could feel the heat. Data compiled by Bloomberg indicate that dim-sum bond supplies have grown to more than $54 billion year-to-date, almost triple the amount for 2021, supported by lower costs and regulatory curbs on certain types of onshore issuances.

END

ECB

The ECB raises its interest rate by 25 basis pts to 4% and that should be the final rise

(zerohedge)

ECB “Surprises” With Tenth Consecutive Hike To A Record 4.00%

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 08:35 AM

As we previewed earlier, while the ECB decision was a tough call and while pure mathematical consensus expected no hike today, moments ago the ECB surprised the consensus (if not our readers) with what is most likely the final rate hike, when it raised all three deposits rates by 25bps (and the key Deposit rate for the 10th consecutive time to a record 4.00%) because while “inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long. The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. In order to reinforce progress towards its target, the Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.”

Explaining its decision, the ECB said that the “rate increase today reflects the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The ECB also said that “the Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary” and “will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.” In particular, “interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.”

Here is a redline comparison of the latest two statements:

Some more commentary on rates:

  • Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target.
  • The Governing Council’s past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully.
  • The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.
  • The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.
  • Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

On Inflation:

  • Underlying price pressures remain high, even though most indicators have started to ease

Forecasts:

  • Core inflation seen at 5.1% in 2023 (prev. 5 1%), 2.9% in 2024 (prev. 3.0%) and 2.2% in 2025 (prev. 2.3%).
  • Headline inflation to average 5.6% in 2023 (prev. 5.4%), 3.2% in 2024 (prev. 3.0%) and 2.1% in 2025 (prev. 2.2%).
  • Expect GDP to grow 0.7% in 2023 (prev. 0.9%). 1.0% in 2024 (prev. 1.5%) and 1.5% in 2025 (prev. 1.6%).

PEPP Purchases:

  • As concerns the PEPP the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024

As the FT notes, the council’s decision was the most consequential for more than a year, with more dovish members pointing to signs of weaker growth, slowing bank lending, a cooling labour market and falling inflation to argue for a pause. But hawks worried inflation was still too high.

Thursday’s decision takes the ECB deposit rate above the previous record high in 2001, when rate-setters raised borrowing costs to boost the value of the newly launched euro. The decision also shows policymakers remain more worried about the risk of consumer price growth staying above target than the danger of a sharp economic downturn.

Economists have trimmed eurozone growth forecasts in recent weeks after industrial production and retail sales fell in July and business surveys pointed to a further downturn in August. Rate-setters think slowing economic activity is likely to cool price pressures.

And with Europe already edging into a stagflationary recession, the kneejerk reaction in the EURUSD was to tumble, on expectations that the European recession will only go from bad to worse and force the ECB to cut rates that much faster.

END

This ought to get Russia mad.  We hope that they will not target the UK

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Used British Cruise Missiles In Devastating Sevastopol Attack, UK Confirms

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 10:05 AM

This week’s major Ukrainian attack on the Russian port of Sevastopol in Crimea was likely the largest strike on Russian naval targets since the war’s start.

Significantly, the UK’s Sky News has confirmed that British-supplied long range missiles were used in the overnight Sept. 12-13 attack which likely damaged a Russian submarine and warship. “A Ukrainian and a Western source said that British Storm Shadow cruise missiles were deployed,” Sky News reports.UK Ministry of Defence

Kremlin sources counted ten cruise missiles fired against the key Black Sea naval port, and claimed anti-air defenses downed seven of these. An additional attack by unmanned boats was thwarted too, a statement said.

Storm Shadow missiles were supplied to Ukraine after approval to supply these was announced earlier this year from London on May 11. The missiles have a range of 155 miles, making them among the longest range weapons in Ukraine’s arsenal, and are fired from aircraft.

The Sky report notes that while Kiev stopped short of confirming outright the type of missiles used, statements from officials strongly point in that direction

However, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk, the head of the Ukrainian Air Force, posted an image on his Telegram channel of the burning shipyard, with the caption: “And while the occupiers are ‘storming’ and they are still recovering from the night cotton [Ukrainian slang for explosions] in Sevastopol, thank you to the pilots of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for their excellent combat work!”

Likely the projectiles were launched from Ukrainian aircraft. Such future attacks could be more devastating if and when Western partners hand over F-16 fighter jets, after training for Ukrainian pilots is complete.

Open source analysts have said the submarine damaged in the attack was at the dry dock and was the Black Sea Fleet’s Rostov-on-don Project 636.3 diesel submarine. A warship was also said to be damaged, likely the Minsk Project 775 Ropucha-class large landing ship.

Currently, the Biden administration is mulling giving Ukraine the Pentagon’s long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, which is capable of hitting targets 190 miles away. Per ABC News:

“They are coming,” said one official who had access to security assistance plans. The official noted that, as always, such plans are subject to change until officially announced.

A second official said the missiles are “on the table” and likely to be included in an upcoming security assistance package, adding that a final decision has not been made. It could be months before Ukraine receives the missiles, according to the official.

However, when pressed this week, NSC spokesman John Kirby would not confirm that the decision has been made. There are some in the administration who’ve also expressed concern for escalation, given Kiev could more easily unleash devastating cruise missile attacks deep inside Russia with the ATACMS.

Interesting: the Biden impeachment inquiry and the Trump impeachment centre on the same

incident but from opposite sides

(EpochTimes)

Ukraine Plays Key Role In Biden Impeachment Inquiry, Just As It Did With Trump

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Both the newly announced impeachment of President Joe Biden and that of President Donald Trump center on the same incident in Ukraine, but from different sides.Then Vice President Joe Biden arrives for a meeting with Then Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Kyiv on Jan. 16, 2017. (Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images)
The impeachment inquiry announced by House Republicans against President Joe Biden centers on his involvement with Ukraine, just as the Eastern European country figured prominently in the first impeachment of President Donald Trump. In fact, both impeachments touch upon the same incident, but from opposite sides.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) announced the impeachment inquiry on Sept. 12, summarizing the results of the investigations to date, including nearly $20 million in alleged payments from foreign sources to the Biden family and associates, the president’s past communications with his son Hunter Biden about his overseas business dealings, as well as whistleblower allegations that the Department of Justice extended special treatment to the Biden family.

These are allegations of abuse of power, obstruction, and corruption and they warrant further investigation by the House of Representatives,” Mr. McCarthy said.

The centerpiece of the allegations goes back to 2016, when then-Vice President Biden used a $1 billion loan guarantee as leverage to have Ukraine fire prosecutor Victor Shokin, who was investigating Ukrainian energy company Burisma. At the time, the vice president’s son Hunter Biden was collecting $1 million a year to sit on the company’s board and Burisma associates were pressuring him to ensure any investigations into the company’s owner were quashed.

It was President Trump’s requesting assistance from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in investigating this matter during a 2019 phone call that prompted House Democrats to launch an impeachment inquiry of him and later voting to impeach him. President Trump was acquitted by the GOP-led Senate at the time.

Ukraine has long been a crucible of geopolitical tensions, culminating in Russia’s invasion of the country in 2022. Hunter Biden was given the Burisma position in 2014, three months after Vice President Biden was designated by President Barack Obama as “point-man” for Ukraine.

Mr. Shokin was appointed Ukraine’s prosecutor general in February 2015 and later that year started preparing a money laundering case tied to Burisma.

On Nov. 2, 2015, Hunter Biden received an email from Burisma owner Mykola Zlochevsky’s adviser, Vadym Pozharskyi, demanding “deliverables” and saying that the “ultimate purpose” was to “close down any cases or pursuits” against Zlochevsky.

Several weeks later, Vice President Biden visited Ukraine and, among other things, demanded the removal of Mr. Shokin.President Donald Trump holds a copy of The Washington Post as he speaks in the East Room of the White House one day after the U.S. Senate acquitted on two articles of impeachment, on Feb. 6, 2020. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

While there were some accusations that Mr. Shokin was corrupt, the U.S. government seemed satisfied with his performance.

Just weeks before the vice president’s visit, a joint task force of U.S. State, Treasury, and Justice Department officials deemed Ukraine’s progress on anti-corruption sufficient to earn it another $1 billion loan guarantee.

In addition, Victoria Nuland, then-assistant U.S. secretary of state, wrote to Mr. Shokin in June 2015 that “we have been impressed with the ambitious reform and anti-corruption agenda of your government.”

When Ukraine’s then-President Petro Poroshenko didn’t initially act on Vice President Biden’s demand, the latter threatened to withhold the $1 billion loan guarantee. He later boasted about the incident during a 2018 Council on Foreign Relations event.

On July 25, 2019, when President Trump called President Zelenskyy to congratulate him on winning a majority in the Ukrainian parliament, he mentioned that he would like Ukraine to examine the circumstances of Mr. Shokin’s firing and former Vice President Biden’s role in the matter. He said then-Attorney General Bill Barr would call to discuss the matter.

“There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great, Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it… It sounds horrible to me,” he said.

Democrats interpreted it as President Trump’s abusing his power to have his political opponent investigated.

President Trump has insisted the call was nothing wrong with the call and that Democrats were trying to cover up the Biden family’s corruption.

Republicans now say there indeed was corruption worth investigating. In addition to the money Hunter Biden received in Ukraine, they also point to payments from Elena Baturina, the wife of a former mayor of Moscow, as well as money from companies linked to the Chinese Communist Party.

They also capitalize on evidence that contradicts President Biden’s claims that he never discussed with his son his overseas business and that there was a “wall” between those business dealings and his official position.

“Not only did they discuss business, they discussed strategy, they discussed when they were going to meet with these people, they discussed what the narrative was going to be, how they were going to lie to the American people when word got out that they were being investigated for corruption in Ukraine and being investigated for tax crimes and things like that,” Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), who chairs the House Oversight committee, recently told Newsmax.

There was never a wall between Joe Biden and his family’s shady business dealings, and I think what we’re going to find is that Joe Biden not only knew about them, but Joe Biden was the ringleader in all of the crimes that his family’s committed.”

Mr. McCarthy put Mr. Comer in charge of the inquiry together with Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), head of the House Judiciary Committee, and Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), head of the House Ways and Means Committee.

“Regardless of your party or who you voted for, these facts should concern all Americans,” Mr. McCarthy said.Hunter Biden walks to a waiting SUV after arriving with President Joe Biden on Marine One at Fort McNair in Washington, D.C., July 4, 2023, as they return to Washington after spending the weekend at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland. (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES

end

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

GLOBAL ISSUES//

end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER.

Gover Hochul of New York finally comes clean and did not get the correct talking points, so she went rogue & spoke the truth FINALLY! She said para ‘the COVID vaccine you took did not & does not work’

Imagine that! often not the brightest light bulb in the set, yet here Hochul redeems herself with actual honesty; maybe she should call Walensky & offer to help her learn to tell the truth now & again

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERSEP 14
 
READ IN APP
 

end

end

‘I shut down schools because I panicked, admits Norway’s PM’; essentially my move was not grounded in science; so imagine a leader, this Norway PM, being so honest and forthcoming, deserves praise!

She made decisions out of fear; While others like Newsom, Cuomo, many Democrat and Republican politicians spending each waking hour trying to find ways to spin and lie to you!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERSEP 13
 
READ IN APP
 

end

end

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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Mostly Peaceful Inflation

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 12:20 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The best way to summarize the sharply different interpretations of yesterday’s US CPI number was “mostly peaceful.” For Mr. Market, headline inflation jumping 0.6% m-o-m, 7.2% annualized, was not important. Neither was the y-o-y rate rising from 3.2% to 3.7%, a tick above the 3.6% expected. Instead, the focus was on core CPI, up 0.3% m-o-m, so 3.6% annualised, and 4.3% y-o-y, down from 4.7% – that latter drop was all that mattered. After all, the headline rise was “driven by energy.” Well, yes, but energy goes into *everything*, as our strategist Joe DeLaura keeps repeating, alongside structural risks to the upside. Brent is now at over $92, up nearly 10% m-o-m, with unhelpful y-o-y base effects for the next six months to boot.

Even a 3.7% y-o-y average price hike is on top of 8.2% in August 2022 and 5.2% in August 2021, meaning a total rise of 18.1% since August 2020. Yet some tell us to eat cheap cake.

Professor of Economics @JustinWolfers explained average US grocery prices have been unchanged for six months: someone replied on X that his income of over $300,000 insulates him from such real-life observations. Nobel Prize-winner Krugman told CNN, “The economic data have been just surreally good. Even optimists are just stunned.”  “So why do polls show most Americans don’t think the economy is doing well?”, asked Christiane Amanpour. “There’s a really profound and peculiar disconnect going on,” was his reply.  He also tweeted, “So basically the data are now saying that the war on inflation has been pretty much won – without a recession.” Perhaps he was looking at the numbers on his fax machine, not his iPhone.

I can fiddle with data as well as the next analyst, but outside cloistered circles people are *deeply* unhappy with the state of the economy because of inflation. Those with a better feel for things than rate-cut addicted markets and bubble boys can pick up on that vibe.

Even The Rolling Stones latest hit is called ‘Angry’. The band who sang of Street Fighting Men in the 60s, and by the 90s were so rich it was joked they all lived in a Manhattan penthouse, feeding on cocaine and diamonds with prehensile tongues, capture the 2023 zeitgeist with a new album called ‘Hackney Diamonds’. That’s London slang for the broken glass left behind after car windscreens have been smashed. The title is supremely appropriate in that most of Hackney –still a byword for urban poverty– is now unaffordable to either buy or rent in. A generation are in Exile on Main Street; can’t afford groceries on Main Street; or find there’s no Main Street anymore.

Wait and see what happens if energy stays high, spreads into goods and services, and central banks look through it to ‘focus on core’ CPI: a Stones-y 70’s vibe, or maybe a 1968 one.

Think what happens if central banks have to act again. You can see why Mr. Market mostly prefers not to think – with a few exceptions. For example: ‘Forget steady US CPI, this $256bn bond guru says soft landing is a ‘fairy tale’. Arif Husain says bond yields are going higher just as the economy starts to crack, and “there’s very little to catch us on the way down.”

Meanwhile, central bankers’ jobs are being complicated by geopolitics, something we’ve been flagging for years: everyone loves free trade as an exporter; only the Anglosphere loves free trade as an importer, and that’s finally changing too. Indeed, as China flags security risks with iPhones, the EU just announced an investigation into subsidies for Chinese EVs.

In essence, as China points out the EU is also using subsidies for its nascent EV production, Europe’s complaint is that China has out-industrial-policied it. Yet either the EU loses the vital auto sector, or it adopts China-style policy. The former means deindustrialisation. The latter means tariffs, higher EV prices, and stronger unions making higher wage claims, as in the US auto sector – and some German unions are already pushing for a four-day week. Either way, Germany takes a hit. If the EU doesn’t act, German automakers suffer in Germany. If it does act, German automakers suffer in China.

If you think this is all just a Western problem, think again. Bloomberg revealed yesterday that ‘Bankers’ 40% Pay Cuts Show the China Dream Fading in Its Richest Cities’, with numerous examples of private-sector salaries being slashed by up to 50%, and many workers responding by ‘lying flat’. There were also some suggestions that public sector salaries in the struggling northeast have been cut 20%. (Tell me again about an imminent ‘rebalancing to consumption’.) Of course, that Chinese action is deflationary. But the EU action on EVs underlines it isn’t going to absorb excess, cheap Chinese production anymore, just as the US has seen Mexico become a larger source of imports than China.

Aussie jobs data today were strong enough (+64.9K vs. 25K expected) that Ben Picton thinks they back another RBA rate hike to 4.35% later this year. However, one does also need to factor in that the Aussie population will expand by around 600,000 people in 2023 via new arrivals, many of whom work. Yet even if that means supply and demand for labour is better balanced than it might appear, it isn’t for homes to buy or rent. That will continue to push up wages and inflation – or people will sleep in the streets. Note that rate hikes will make matters worse, as landlords pass on the mortgage costs to renters, and developers build fewer homes. Also note that rate cuts will make matters worse, as landlords don’t pass on the savings to renters, and speculators and new buyers push up housing prices even further, forcing many to rent. And as in Australia, so elsewhere. “Don’t get angry at me,” as Jagger snarls. But get angry at somebody.

Against that backdrop, the ECB is up today. Our Eurozone team still narrowly favour a ‘Hawkish Hold’ at what they see as “quite possibly… the hardest juncture in its hiking cycle.” They expect the ECB to maintain that more hikes may still follow ahead. On one hand, the growth outlook is deteriorating, with official downward revisions seen for both the Eurozone and Germany yesterday, and overtightening is becoming a real possibility. Yet at the same time, inflation remains high, with suggestions it will be projected at over 3% in 2024, and thus the odds of another hike are more than just a tail risk. The team sees a small risk of an increase in the minimum required reserves at this meeting, which would also have a market impact.

To summarise:

  • Growth is too low, with risks to the downside;
  • Inflation is too high, with risks to the upside;
  • Official forecasts say we will be half-way through this decade before things go back to ‘normal’;
  • Geopolitics says that is unlikely to happen at all; and
  • The population who don’t read or watch Bloomberg are already *furious*.

In short, the outlook is anything but ‘mostly peaceful’. Or exactly that in the ironic meme sense. Worry about the Stones; and bricks; and baseball bats; and pickaxes, etc.   

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//BRICS

END 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0731 DOWN  0.0001

USA/ YEN 147.32 DOWN 0.090  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2476 DOWN    0.0013

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3519 DOWN .0033 (CDN DOLLAR UP 33 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 3.48 PTS OR 0.11% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 38,78 PTS OR .21% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .50%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE:  ALL  MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:    ALL  MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG  CLOSED UP 38.78 PTS OR 0.21%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.48 PTS OR  0.11%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.50% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 461.58 PTS OR 1.41%  

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1907.80

silver:$22.60

USA dollar index early THURSDAY  morning: 104.40 UP 0 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.305%  DOWN 9  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.709% UP 1 AND  1//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.633 DOWN 9  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.329 DOWN 12  points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.5890 DOWN 7  BASIS PTS 

END

Euro/USA 1.0666 DOWN  0.0066 or 66  basis points 

USA/Japan: 147.07 DOWN .252 OR YEN UP 25 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2420 DOWN   0.0068 OR 68  BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP  .0039 OR 39 BASIS pts  to 1.3513

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  CLOSED    (UP) …7.2780

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2883)

TURKISH LIRA:  26.95 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.709…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  4.256% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.357 UP 2  in basis points   ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4,982 UP 0 BASIS PTS.

London: CLOSED UP 147.09  POINTS or 1.95%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 151,26 PTS OR 0.97%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 86.10 PTS OR 1.19%

Spain IBEX UP 134.90 PTS OR 1.33%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 390.96 PTS OR 1.37%

WTI Oil price  88.47  12: EST

Brent Oil:  92.14   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  96.49;   ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  26//100       

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5890 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3135  DOWN 7  BASIS PTS

Euro vs USA: 1.0641 DOWN   0.0092   OR 92 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2406 DOWN   .0083 or  83 basis pts 

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.335%  DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .701%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147,46 UP   .125 //YEN DOWN UP 13  BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3518  DOWN .0035 CDN dollar UP 35  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 90.33

Brent OIL:  93,82

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.291% 

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5   BASIS PTS to 4.388% 

USA 2 YR BOND:  UP 12  PTS AT 5.016 % 

USA dollar index: 105.01 UP 61  BASIS POINTS  

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.94 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  97.34  DOWN 1   AND  15/100 roubles

GOLD  1908.85

SILVER: 22.59

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE:  UP 331.58 PTS OR 0.96% 

NASDAQ UP 125.37 PTS OR 0.82%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.83 DOWN 0.65 PTS (4.82)%

GLD: $177.17 UP 0.09 OR 0.05%

SLV/ $20.73 DOWN 0.20 OR 0.96%

end

Bears disARM’d: Stocks, Yields, Crypto, & Crude Jump As Inflation Expectations Soar

Source: Bloomberg

Rather oddly, this hotter than expected growth (retail sales and jobs) and inflation (PPI) pushed the market’s expectations for Fed rate changes dovishly lower (admittedly only modestly). However, rate-cut expectations did drop (hawkish) modestly for next year…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks (futures) traded wildly after the 0830ET data dump but as the cash open hit, Nasdaq was dumped and Small Caps pumped. That didn’t last long and after around 1030ET, buying began and never really lifted as traders ‘survived’ the big event risk of the week. Small Caps outperformed (short squeeze) while Nasdaq ans S&P lagged (but all were green)…

While some discussed the ‘fundamental’ driver of today’s move, we note that ‘most shorted’ stocks were smashed/squeezed rapidly higher, erasing yesterday’s decline…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s rally lifted all the majors back above key technical levels (Russell 2000 above its 100DMA; S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq above 50DMAs)…

ARM IPO’d at $51, opened at $56.10, jumped, dumped, then surged into the last few minutes…

VIX tumbled all the way back to a 12 handle…

Treasury yields were all higher on the day (up 4-5bps), pushing them all higher on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield pushed back above 5.00%… again…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar remains lower on the week but jumped notably today as EUR tumbled after ECB…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended its bounce, pushing up towards $27,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold (spot) ended the day unchanged after bouncing intraday off a near $1900 test…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices continued to rise with WTI topping $90 for the first time since Nov 2022 – which just happens to be more or less in line with where it was trading right before Putin invaded Ukraine…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, The Fed and The White House have a problem as those surging oil prices are dragging wholesale gasoline prices higher (with gasoline stocks at the lows of the year) which will inevitably drag pump prices higher…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that means inflation (perceived by the average joe) will be top of mind once again and the Biden admin has used up its geopolitical (Saudi) and domestic (SPR) ammo to do anything about it this time.

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 04:00 PM

Hot jobless claims, hotter retail sales, and hottest PPI made for an exciting “is good news, bad news?” confusion in markets early on before bonds took charge with yields deciding on ‘growth’ and shooting higher along with stocks (which decided to ignore the higher rates). The dollar and bitcoin also rallied.

Crucially, however, the market’s expectations for short-term inflation continued to surge (to 6-month highs)

USA TRADING TODAY: 

end

II USA DATA

Initial Jobless Claims Plunge Near 12-Month Lows (Thanks To Ohio’s Fraud Fix)

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 09:01 AM

After the prior week’s tumble to the lowest levels since 2022 – thanks to Ohio fixing its fraud situation – expectations were for a pickup in initial claims last week and the headline print did rise very modestly (from 215k to 220k). But on an NSA basis, jobless claims dropped to their lowest since September 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Once again, we think it is important to remember that two distortions that likely boosted initial claims over the last few months – potentially fraudulent filings in Ohio and expanded eligibility for unemployment insurance in Minnesota – and that has now been erased.

And just to make it very clear, Ohio has been the state with the biggest decline initial claims for the last four weeks…

Continuing claims rose very modestly the prior week – but remains below the key 1.7MM level…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, the unemployment rate is now at its highest since Feb 2022…

WTF!

end

PPI soars with goods inflation reigniting

(zerohedge)

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 08:53 AM

After yesterday’s hotter than expected rebound in CPI, all eyes are on PPI for signs that the pipeline for inflation may be more dove-friendly.

It wasn’t!

Producer Prices rose 0.7% MoM in August (up from +0.3% in July and hotter than the +0.4% exp). That is the hottest PPI since June 2022, and pushed YoY prices up 1.6%…

Source: Bloomberg

Goods prices are reaccelerating fast, now back into inflation YoY (as Services cost growth slowed only modestly)…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, much of last month’s PPI rise was driven by a big jump in portfolio management costs – as stocks soared. August saw a further rise in those costs…

Source: Bloomberg

More problematically, the pipeline for PPI appears to have inflected as intermediate demand is re-accelerating…

Source: Bloomberg

This is not what The Fed wanted to hear.

end

I think the data here is badly flawed: retail sales explode by .6% m/m

Retail Sales Unexpectedly Soared In August, As Gasoline Costs Jumped

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 08:42 AM

Following July’s buying spree, expectations are for a slowdown in retail sales in August as BofA omnipotent analysts forecast a decline of 0.1% MoM (worse than the consensus +0.1% MoM) with gas prices rising the only saving grace (ex-autos and gas expected to be down 0.5% MoM).,

BUT for once, BofA were wrong (or rather the Census Bureau was given clear political marching orders from the senile administration) as the party kept going in August with retail sales exploding 0.6% MoM (smashing the +0.1% exp) – rising for the 5th month in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

That is a 2.5% YoY gain (thank the lord for credit cards, right?)

Retail sales beat across the board with Core (ex-autos and gas) up 0.2% MoM (+0.1% MoM exp) and the ‘control group’ – which is used for GDP calcs – rose 0.1% MoM (vs expectations for a 0.1% decline).

Under the hood, the big driver was a 5.2% MoM jump in spending at gasoline stations

Source: Bloomberg

And non-store retailers were flat in August after surging in July on Amazon’s Prime Day

Finally, remember this data is ‘nominal’ not ‘real’. So be careful at how excited you get about this data.

This is totally nuts:  Fox Corp sued by New York Pension funds over their 2020 election coverage!!

What was their loss?

(EpochTimes)

Fox Corp Sued By New York City Pension Funds, Oregon Over 2020 Election Coverage

WEDNESDAY, SEP 13, 2023 – 08:00 PM

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

New York City Pension Funds and Oregon have filed a lawsuit against Fox Corporation’s board related to alleged false narratives in post-2020 election coverage.A Fox News channel sign is seen at the News Corp. building in New York on March 20, 2019. (Kevin Hagen/Getty Images)

The state of Oregon joined New York City Pension Funds in filing a stockholder derivative lawsuit on Tuesday against the board of Fox Corporation, the corporate parent of Fox News, accusing it of a breach of fiduciary duty by opening it up to defamation lawsuits by “peddling known falsehoods” in its post-2020 election coverage.

The lawsuit was filed under seal in Delaware Chancery Court. In a statement Tuesday, Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum accused Fox Corporation’s board of allegedly knowingly exposing the company and its shareholders to significant risks by perpetuating allegedly false narratives about the 2020 elections for profit.

Ms. Rosenblum claimed Fox Corporation’s board “took a massive risk in pursuing profits by perpetuating and peddling known falsehoods.

The directors’ choices exposed themselves and the company to liability and exposed their shareholders to significant risks,” said Ms. Rosenblum. “That is the crux of our lawsuit, and we look forward to making our case in court.”

The corporation’s board comprises media tycoon Rupert Murdoch, the chair, and his son Lachlan Murdoch, executive chair and CEO. Other members include William Burck, Chase Carey, Anne Dias, Roland Hernandez, Jacques Nasser, and Paul Ryan.

The Oregon attorney general is representing the Oregon Public Employee Retirement Fund (OPERF), an investor in Fox Corporation, which holds 150,146 shares of Class A stock and 76,169 shares of Class B stock, with a total approximate value of $5.2 million.

The lawsuit stems from a joint investigation carried out by the Oregon Department of Justice and the Oregon Treasurer’s Office earlier this year, the attorney general’s office said. Her office said the joint investigation revealed that Fox Corporation’s management, acting on behalf of the company, allegedly harmed investors, including Oregon’s public employees.

The complaint alleges that Fox Corporation’s board was fully aware that Fox News’ promotion of political narratives, irrespective of the underlying factual accuracy, created substantial exposure to defamation charges.

“Furthermore, by pushing narratives that appealed to their audience regardless of the facts, Fox’s Board should have been especially sensitive to risks of defamation,” the attorney general’s office stated.

“Yet, Fox’s business model is to promote false claims.

Tuesday’s lawsuit, which includes the New York City Pension Funds as a co-plaintiff, further alleges that Fox Corporation made no genuine efforts to monitor or mitigate the risk of defamation, setting it apart from nearly every other major media organization in the country.

New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who oversees the pension funds, accused the Fox Corporation board of failing to ensure journalist standards.

“Fox’s board of directors has blatantly disregarded the need for journalistic standards and failed to put safeguards in place despite having a business model that invites defamation litigation,” Mr. Lander said in a statement on Tuesday. “A lack of journalistic standards and a proper strategy to mitigate defamation has clearly harmed Fox’s reputation and threatens their bottom line and long-term profitability.”

Treasurer Tobias Read, who is also a member of the Oregon Investment Council, said that safeguarding the retirement investments of Oregon’s public servants is of the “utmost importance.”

“We aim to hold Fox’s board of directors, including Rupert and Lachlan Murdoch, accountable for their decisions,” Mr. Read said. “We believe that this action is necessary in fulfilling our obligation to our beneficiaries.”

Fox Corporation declined to comment.

END

targeted strikes will occur as UAW and automakers far apart

(zerohedge)

UAW Boss Says ‘Targeted Strikes’ On Standby As Talks With Automakers ‘Far Apart’

WEDNESDAY, SEP 13, 2023 – 07:30 PM

Update (1930ET): 

“For the first time in our history, we may strike all of the Big Three at once,” United Auto Workers boss Shawn Fain told members in a Wednesday evening Facebook Live event. 

Fain said General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis increased their wage offers but rejected some of the union’s other demands. 

“We do not yet have offers on the table that reflect the sacrifices and contributions our members have made to these companies.

“To win we’re likely going to have to take action. We are preparing to strike these companies in a way they’ve never seen before.”

He said if no deal is reached by 11:59 p.m. on Thursday, then “standup strikes” will be unleashed at different auto plants to keep the automakers guessing. “We will not strike all of our facilities at once” on Thursday,” he added. 

Targeted strikes will help the union sidestep ‘strike pay,’ which amounts to $500 a week per member. 

Fain said the goal of the targeted strikes is to reach a fair labor deal for members, “but if the companies continue to bargain in bad faith or continue to stall or continue to give us insulting offers, then our strike is going to continue to grow.” 

With 24 hours left in labor talks, UAW and the automakers are still far apart. 

*    *    * 

Talks between United Auto Workers and Detroit’s “Big Three” automakers – General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis, appear stalled on Wednesday morning as the deadline for a new four-year labor deal with automakers quickly approaches.

UAW boss Shawn Fain is set to speak to the 146,000 members during a Facebook Live event at 1700 ET regarding the ongoing labor negotiations with Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis. According to Bloomberg, Fain is expected to discuss a potential strike strategy.

AP News reports the Facebook Live event could have the union boss shed more light on “targeted strikes at a small number of factories run by each of Detroit’s three automakers if they can’t reach contract agreements by a Thursday night deadline.” 

Strikes at parts plants could spark production halts at multiple assembly factories. We detailed Tuesday a large enough strike could plunge Michigan’s economy into a recession

Last week, automakers submitted contract offers to UAW. Fain quickly threw those in the trash, calling General Motors “insulting.” 

Bank of America Securities warned clients a “strike is almost guaranteed” because UAW demands and automaker offers are so wide apart.  

Nelson Lichtenstein, a history professor at the University of California Santa Barbara, told AP if UAW strikes later this week — it would be the largest in decades. 

Labor actions will likely occur at part factories for pickup trucks and big SUVs, according to Marick Masters, a business professor at Wayne State University in Detroit. 

“They’re trying to impose some hardship on the companies and apply an accelerating level of pressure to encourage them to make an offer which will be acceptable to the rank and file and goes further toward meeting the demands that they have on the table,” Masters said. 

He said it would make sense for UAW to target the weakest point of the supply chains: 

“You would go after the components that would shut down as many of those product facilities as possible.

“The tactic would force the companies to lay off workers at assembly plants, and they would get unemployment benefits rather than money from the union strike fund.” 

Meanwhile, pro-union President Biden and his administration appear unconcerned about imminent strike threats across America’s manufacturing automobile hub. 

It appears the president likes spending time more time at his liberal white-elitest Rehoboth Beach house than actually working. 

END

Caesars reportedly paid millions to hackers.  MGM paralyzed as they have not settled.

(zerohedge)

Caesars Reportedly Paid Millions To Hackers, While MGM Paralyzed In Cyberattack

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 09:05 AM

We asked this question on Wednesday: Sin-City Cyber-Siege?

MGM Resorts International isn’t the only Vegas casino dealing with cyberattacks. People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that Caesars Entertainment Inc. is about to reveal in a regulatory filing it was the victim of a cyberattack on Aug. 27. 

The disclosure of the alleged Caesars breach comes four days after MGM Resorts International has been plagued with a cyberattack since Sunday, shutting down critical computer systems responsible for operations at more than a dozen properties.

According to the people, Caesars and MGM were hit by the same hacking group, known as Scattered Spider or UNC 3944. 

Here’s more from Bloomberg: 

MGM was still working to resolve the turmoil caused by the hackers, known as Scattered Spider, four days into the cyberattack that has disrupted the company’s websites, reservation system and some slot machines at its casinos across the country, according to two of the people.

Caesars was also hacked by the same group in a cyberattack a few weeks earlier, and ended up paying tens of million of dollars to the hackers, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. The hackers first breached an outside IT vendor before gaining access to the company’s network, two of the people said.

As of Thursday morning, MGM websites remain inaccessible.

Ransoms are usually paid in cryptocurrency. Around the Ceasers hack, there was an 8% spike in Bitcoin. Since the MGM cyber issue, BTC jumped 6%. 

The people said the hacking group comprises of young adults (“some as young as 19 years old”) across the US and the UK. 

We would’ve thought by now corporate media and the Biden administration would’ve blamed Moscow hackers. 

end

Unbelievable!!! The White House did not get the Supreme Court’s letter not to mix in?

White House tells Media to ramp up their scrutiny of GOP  in response to impeachment inquiry

This is going to be quite a circus!

(Jonathan Turley)

Marching Orders: White House Letter Tells Media To “Ramp Up Their Scrutiny” Of GOP In Response to Impeachment Inquiry

WEDNESDAY, SEP 13, 2023 – 06:40 PM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

I have previously written how the level of advocacy and bias has created a danger of a de facto state media in the United States.

It is possible to have such a system by consent rather than coercion.

Given that long concern, a letter drafted by the Biden White House Legal Counsel’s Office was striking in a call for major media to “ramp up their scrutiny” of House Republicans “for opening an impeachment inquiry based on lies.”

The message is curious and concerning, particularly in the aggressive role being played by the White House Counsel’s office under Stuart Frank Delery.

First, as I have previously noted, the White House is now actively involved in pushing narratives and denying factual allegations linked to the Biden corruption scandal.

That could create Nixonian-type allegations of the abuse of office in the use of federal employees to counter impeachment efforts.

Second, the letter was drafted by Ian Sams, a spokesperson for the White House Counsel’s Office. So White House lawyers are now enlisting the media in a counter media campaign against impeachment?

The letter removes any pretense of separation between the Biden personal legal team and the White House Counsel’s office. Sams has been the most aggressive White House official in actively swatting down allegations of corruption as well as the President’s documents investigation.

Third, the letter calls for the media to actively support the White House account.

The draft of the letter is a call for what I have previously criticized as “advocacy journalism” where reporters frame stories to advance their own viewpoints or values.

Sams wrote “[c]overing impeachment as a process story – Republicans say X, but the White House says Y – is a disservice to the American public who relies on the independent press to hold those in power accountable.” In other words, media should (and it has for years) decline to give equal attention to allegations against the Bidens and instead tell the public what the truth is.

It is a call for media to tailor the coverage to push the position of the White House against this effort to ramp up the investigation into corruption.

It is an approach that is already embraced by many in the media. That was evident in the meltdown of Washington Post columnist Philip Bump recently when he was confronted by countervailing evidence in the Biden scandals.

Before storming out, Bump chastised the interviewer for not just taking his work as the “putative expert” and said that he had enough “because you don’t listen to the press. I’m sitting here and I’m telling you, you’re wrong about these things, and you don’t listen, and you continue to insist upon things that are, you know, parsing of language.”

That appears the approach pushed by Sams, who specifically references Facebook and Fox as enemies of the truth:

“in the modern media environment, where every day liars and hucksters peddle disinformation and lies everywhere from Facebook to Fox, process stories that fail to unpack the illegitimacy of the claims on which House Republicans are basing all their actions only serve to generate confusion, put false premises in people’s feeds, and obscure the truth.”

The letter has an uncomfortable feeling of marching orders to the media. 

This is a media that followed the lead of Biden associates in spreading the false story that the Hunter laptop was Russian disinformation.

This is the media that refused to acknowledge the authenticity of the laptop until only recently — long after the presidential election.

This was the media that only recently admitted that President Biden has been lying about denials related to his son’s influence peddling.

Yet, the White House is now calling for the media to again circle the wagons around the President and attack the impeachment effort as it did the laptop and the corruption investigation.

Once again, what is most disturbing is that the White House shows no reluctance or concern in making such an open pitch to the press. There is a sense of license in using the media as an extension of the White House press push. The fact that this is a representative of the White House counsel’s office is particularly chilling. This is not the press office but the counsel for the President calling on media to form a unified front against the Republicans and the impeachment inquiry.

The letter is an alarming erosion of separation of the White House Counsel’s office from the Biden defense team. It also confirms an active and aggressive role of White House officials in swatting down allegations against the President. While the staff obviously is not expected to be neutral on impeachment, there is a careful line that past White House counsels have walked between fulfilling their duties to the office as opposed to the officeholder.

END

Federal Judge blocks New Mexico Governor’s “health emergency” suspending gun rights

(zerohedge)

Not So Fast Karen: Federal Judge Blocks New Mexico Governor’s “Health Emergency” To Suspend Gun Rights

WEDNESDAY, SEP 13, 2023 – 05:40 PM

Has the trial balloon just popped?

A federal judge in Albuquerque has blocked part of New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s ‘public health emergency’ to disarm law abiding citizens who wish to carry firearms either open or concealed in public.

The ruling comes after both the state AG and various other officials said they’d refuse to enforce it, AP reports.

The ruling Wednesday by U.S. District Judge David Urias marks a setback for Democratic New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham as she responds to several recent shootings that took the lives of children, including an 11-year-old boy as he left a minor league baseball game in Albuquerque. –AP

The order has been slammed on both sides of the aisle, as even gun-grabbing Democrats like Ted Lieu called it unconstitutional, and far-left rag Slate says it’s “already backfiring.”

Gun Owners Foundation, Gun Owners of America Inc, the National Association for Gun Rights and We The Patriots USA filed several legal challenges on behalf of several Bernalillo County gun owners. On Wednesday, Judge Urias heard arguments from plaintiffs seeking a temporary restraining order that blocks the governor’s measure. -The Independent

According to Gun Owners of America senior VP, Erich Pratt, “We are ecstatic that Judge Urias agreed with us that Governor Grisham simply can’t trash the Constitution whenever she sees fit. Gun Owners of America will continue pressing to extend this Temporary Restraining Order into a permanent order. And we will not rest until all those in New Mexico who played a role in this action are held accountable for this gross assault on our rights.

Lawsuits have been filed, calls for impeachment have been sounded, and now, famed 2nd Amendment author and economist John R. Lott Jr. has chimed in with a dose of sanity.

As he writes in RealClear Wire:

After several road rage cases claimed the lives of children this summer, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham suspended the open and concealed carry of firearms in Albuquerque and throughout Bernalillo County for the next 30 days. Grisham’s response will not make New Mexicans safer. Indeed, the opposite is true.

 None of the attacks that Grisham can point to involved permit holders. That’s not too surprising – permit holders in New Mexico and the rest of the country are exceptionally law-abiding. In 2021, there was just one revocation for every 45,000 permit holders in New Mexico. Nor was that an outlier. In 2019 and 2020, there were no revocations.

 For criminals, it is already illegal to carry guns. All Grisham’s edict does is make it illegal for law-abiding citizens to carry. 

 Academic research shows that police are the most important factor in reducing crime. However, the police understand that they virtually always arrive at the crime scene after the crime occurs, as one recent road rage incident illustrates. At the end of August, a law-abiding citizen with a permit used his gun to protect himself from a road rage attack near Isleta Pueblo, New Mexico.

 The Albuquerque police department doesn’t have enough officers to answer every call for help. Police Chief Harold Medina acknowledges that Albuquerque ranks at the bottom of cities in police officers per capita. And by the end of 2021, Albuquerque had only 70% of the number of police officers that it should have. When the police cannot protect people, the solution is not to disarm law-abiding citizens. 

 Albuquerque’s murder rate has soared by 70% while Grisham has been governor. But instead of addressing the problems created by Democrats’ attitudes toward law enforcement, Grisham blames the crime surge on law-abiding gun owners.

 There are now over 22 million concealed handgun permit holders nationwide, and we have decades of data on the behavior of permit holders. Some other states have especially detailed data. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of firearms-related violations at one-twelfth the rate at which police officers are. And police are convicted at just one-twentieth of the rate for the general population at large.

The average concealed carry permit revocation rate in the 19 states with comprehensive data is one-tenth of one percent. Usually, revocations occur because someone moves, dies, or forgets to bring the permit while carrying.

 Academics have published 52 peer-reviewed empirical studies on concealed carry. Of these, 25 found that allowing people to carry reduces violent crime, and 15 found no significant effect. A minority (12) observed increases in violent crime. These 12, however, suffer from systematic errors to varying degrees: They tend to focus on the last 20 years and compare states that recently passed concealed carry laws with earlier states that already had those laws. The latter states, where it was more difficult to obtain a permit, had smaller, sustained growth in permits over the past two decades. The finding that crime rose relatively in the recently adopting states is consistent with the states having the biggest increase in permit holders having the greatest reduction in crime.

 While the Supreme Court would likely strike down Grisham’s 30-day executive order, the governor may have calculated that the suspension period was too short for the courts to successfully intervene. Assuming that Grisham doesn’t get a sympathetic trial judge, there might still be time to get a preliminary injunction. But the case would be moot by the time it would get to the circuit court, let alone the Supreme Court.

 Police are essential to keeping the peace and bringing criminals to justice, but in most cases, they can’t directly protect people. That’s why Gov. Grisham owes the residents of her state the chance to protect themselves.

*  *  *

And as the Mises Institutes Connor O’Keeffe reminds Grisham, constitutional rights aren’t government-issued privileges that you can simply suspend;

Grisham is distorting how rights work to justify her program. She frames rights as a handful of unrelated positive freedoms granted to citizens by the government, which can revoke them during emergencies or when they conflict with rights that government officials deem more important.

In reality, rights are derived from self-ownership. We alone have the highest claim to our own bodies. That right is absolute, so any aggression against our bodies is a rights violation that can be justly resisted or punished proportionately.

And from self-ownership, we can derive the just ownership of property. Self-ownership gives you the highest claim to the fruits of your labor. Unowned resources can justly become owned through homesteading—mixing your labor with unowned natural resources. Once these resources are owned, they can be justly transferred as gifts or through voluntary exchange. Because they are derived from self-ownership, property rights are absolute, meaning any violation can be justly resisted or punished proportionately.

We can see, then, that the right not to be harmed and the right to own property do not conflict—they are variations of the same fundamental right. This is especially evident when the property in question equips us to better protect ourselves and our other property. That’s the case with firearms. The debate Grisham calls for is built on a lie.

The governor is trying to account for the government’s failures to protect people, a service it monopolizes, by violating the property rights of Bernalillo County citizens. She understands this is probably illegal and at the press conference even called herself courageous for moving ahead anyway. Even though, unlike the rest of us outside of government, she wouldn’t face consequences if it were determined that what she’s doing is illegal. She’d, at most, be told to stop.

Or so she thought. Instead, over the weekend, the gun owners of Bernalillo County took to the streets, carrying their weapons peacefully in protest. And the Albuquerque police chief and Bernalillo County sheriff issued statements saying they would not enforce the governor’s order. Because it violates the rights of citizens and draws resources away from preventing real crimes.

That’s real courage.

What’s next?

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE/

end

What a doorknob! Hunter Biden sues former Trump White HOuse aid who published his laptop contents

(zerohedge)

Hunter Biden Sues Former Trump WH Aide Who Published Laptop Contents

WEDNESDAY, SEP 13, 2023 – 11:20 PM

Hunter Biden is suing a former Trump White House aide for publishing the contents of his infamous ‘laptop from hell,’ which contains all sorts of evidence against the Biden family, along with private photos, emails and text messages between the first son and his associates.

Yes, the same laptop that 51 former intelligence officials said had “all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation,” and which Antony Blinken (then a top Biden campaign official) had a ‘central role‘ in discrediting after the New York Post reported that Hunter Biden exploited his father’s position as then-VP foer personal gain.

According to a Wednesday night filing, Hunter Biden’s legal team is suing Garrett Ziegler, who operates the website Marco Polo.

The 13-page lawsuit alleges that Ziegler and others violated federal and California privacy laws by “accessing, tampering with, manipulating, altering, copying and damaging computer data” gathered from Hunter Biden’s purported laptop and iPhone cloud storage without consent.

The lawsuit details how Ziegler and unnamed defendants allegedly obtained sensitive materials by hacking into encrypted data on Hunter Biden’s devices and uploading them to Ziegler’s website, where it remains public. In the lawsuit, Hunter Biden’s lawyers assert that the defendants had refused requests to “cease their unlawful activity” and return private data belonging to the president’s son. –CBS News

In response, Ziegler told CBS News: “I, nor the nonprofit, Marco Polo, have been served with a lawsuit — but the one I read this morning out of the Central District of California should embarrass Winston & Strawn LLP. It’s not worth the paper it’s written on,” adding “Apart from the numerous state and federal laws and regulations which protect authors like me and the publishing that Marco Polo does, it’s not lost on us that Joe’s son filed this SLAPP one day after a so-called Impeachment Inquiry into his father was announced. The president’s son is a disgrace to our great nation.

Earlier this year, Hunter Biden sued a Delaware-based computer repairman, John Paul Mac Issac, with whom Hunter abandoned his now-infamous laptop – the contents of which have been featured in multiple Congressional hearings.

Last year Mac Isaac recalled to the New York Post about how Hunter Biden arrived at his shop in Wilmington, Delaware, in April 2019.

“I’m glad you’re still open,” Hunter Biden allegedly told him. “I just came from the cigar bar, and they told me about your shop, but I had to hurry because you close at seven.”

“I need the data recovered off these, but they all have liquid damage and won’t turn on,” Mac Isaac recalled him saying.

Mac Issac maintains that he obtained the information from Hunter’s laptop legally, and that Biden himself dropped it off in April 2019, never returning to claim it. In fact, says he walked into the Albuquerque FBI office, where he explained what he had, but was rebuffed by the FBI. He was told basically, get lost. This was mid-September 2019.

Two months passed and then, out of the blue, the FBI contacted John Paul Mac Issac. Two FBI agents from the Wilmington FBI office–Joshua Williams and Mike Dzielak–came to John Paul’s business. He offered immediately to give them the hard drive, no strings attached. Agents Williams and Dzielak declined to take the device.

Eight months later, Isaac provided a copy to then-President Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who provided a copy of the hard drive to The Post.

Last year, several FBI whistleblowers told Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) that agents investigating Hunter Biden “opened an assessment which was used by an FBI headquarters team to improperly discredit negative Hunter Biden information as disinformation and caused investigative activity to cease,” adding that his office received “a significant number of protected communications from highly credible whistleblowers” regarding the investigation.

Grassley added that “verified and verifiable derogatory information on Hunter Biden was falsely labeled as disinformation,” according to the Washington Examiner.

END

About time! California drops medical misinformation law after a judge blasts dramatic examples

(ZEROHEDGE)

California To Drop ‘Medical Misinformation’ Law After Judge Blasts ‘Dramatic Examples’

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 10:40 AM

California has quietly announced it’s ditching Gov. Gavin Newsom’s draconian ‘Covid-19 medical misinformation’ law, which would threaten the licenses of doctors who don’t agree with “scientific consensus” on various issues.

The law, AB 2098, was signed into law by Newsom last year. In response, five doctors alleged it to be unconstitutional under the First and Fourteenth Amendments of the US constitution.

The five doctors, Tracy Hoeg, Ram Duriseti, Aaron Kheriaty, Pete Mazolewski, and Azadeh Khatibi, argued that the law prevents them from providing information to their patients that may contradict what the law permits or prohibits. They also alleged the law was used to intimidate and punish physicians who disagreed with prevailing views on COVID-19.

Now, as the lawsuit heats up, California has quietly added a provision to repeal the law to Senate Bill 815, which makes changes to the California Medical Board, Just the News reports.

Jenin Younes and Laura Powell, lawyers for one set of doctors who obtained a preliminary injunction against the law in January, told Just the News they were blindsided by the repeal provision, saying it wasn’t part of any settlement talks in their case.

“It’s incredibly last minute,” Powell said. “Thursday is the last day to vote on bills, and it has to be passed by both chambers. There’s no opportunity for public input and debate.” -JTN

According to Younes, whose motion for summary judgement is due October 2, “We are considering next steps,” and “We are unlikely to move for dismissal at this time, certainly not until repeal is complete..”

More via Just the News:

The Assembly Appropriations Committee mentioned the repeal provision in SB 815 in a Sept. 1 hearing but not in the bill analysis dated Aug. 21. The Medical Board itself didn’t mention any such provision at its Aug. 24 meeting or in the agenda.

The repeal provision then appeared in the Sept. 5 version of the bill and remains in the latest version, Sept. 11. It’s also mentioned in two Assembly floor analyses last week, without elaboration. The last three bill versions were amended by the Assembly, and the first three, the Senate.

Just the News could not get an explanation from SB 815’s Senate sponsor or Assembly principal coauthor how, when and why the repeal provision got in the bill.

Judge slaps CA lawyer around

Younes, the lawyer in the Hoeg case, told JTN that it’s not clear whether the repeal provision is related to a 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals hearing in a different lawsuit that went ‘very badly for the state.’ Five days before that hearing, the provision to drop the law wasn’t in a July 12 version of the bill

In that hearing, Judge Danielle Forrest did not go easy on Deputy AG Kristin Liska, who claimed that doctors could tell patients that “garlic cures cancer” if the court strikes the law down.

You give some dramatic examples, and I understand why,” said Forrest. But disagreement over COVID-19 treatment “has existed even amongst the medical community about what we do about it.”

Forrest added that the law refers to “consensus in the scientific community as though that’s something different or in addition to the standard of care,” which doctors are already expected to follow.

Read more here…

end

Get a load of this:

(zerohedge)

“AI Crusades Have Begun”: Robo-Taxi Involved In Hammer Attack In San Fran Following ‘Coning’ Incidents

WEDNESDAY, SEP 13, 2023 – 10:20 PM

A viral video with over a million views on X shows a person dressed in all-black striking a driverless car repeatedly with a hammer on the streets of crime-ridden San Francisco. 

X user “(((BrokeAssStuart)))” said, “Someone seen destroying a RoboTaxi in San Francisco this weekend.” 

Someone seen destroying a RoboTaxi in San Francisco this weekend.

What do you think, hero or villain?

🎥@caterywta on IG pic.twitter.com/KTdwGKrgWF— (((BrokeAssStuart))) (@BrokeAssStuart) September 11, 2023
They asked: “What do you think, hero or villain?” 

Back in July, we pointed out that members of Safe Street Rebels, a group that states cars are “polluting, dangerous & murderous,” were coning driverless cars across the city, which disables the vehicle and forces it to stop. 

Here is some of the footage of coning incidents:

One X user said, “The AI crusades have begun.” 

end

Never again would the Dems form another “Ministry of Truth”
(zerohedge)

House GOP Bill Would Ban DHS From Forming Another ‘Ministry Of Truth’

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 12:00 PM

In April of 2022, the Department of Homeland Security created a “disinformation governance board” for the purpose of combating “misinformation related to homeland security, focused specifically on irregular migration and Russia.”

After it was quickly outed as the Biden administration’s Ministry of Truth headed by a total nutcase who peddled the Trump-Russia hoax and discredited Hunter Biden laptop theory (and is now a registered foreign agent), DHS killed the Disinformation Governance Board three months later.

Now, House Republicans are set to unveil legislation that would ban the DHS from forming any sort of similar censorship entity, the Washington Examiner reports.

The bill is set for a Thursday introduction by Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX), along with Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Ronny Jackson (R-TX). It would bar federal funds from being “authorized to be appropriated or otherwise made available” to the DHS for the purpose of establishing any sort of similar governance board.

Left to right; Reps. August Plfuger, Ronny Jackson, Marjorie Taylor Greene (AP Images / Washington Examiner)

Partisan government officials running a ‘disinformation board’ sounds ridiculous to most people, but yet the Biden administration tried to control the speech of American citizens,” said Pfluger, who sits on the Homeland Security Committee along with Greene. “DHS should be focused on securing the border and preventing terrorist attacks, not fact-checking social media and censoring Americans.”

Republicans have increasingly pursued avenues to restrict the Biden administration’s ability to track purported disinformation, including by backing appropriations bills that seek to choke off federal funding for related programs.

For instance, as part of an effort to fight apparent censorship, the GOP-led House Foreign Affairs Committee is mulling not reauthorizing the Global Engagement Center, a State Department-housed interagency the Washington Examiner reported granted $100,000 to the Global Disinformation Index, a British group covertly blacklisting conservative outlets, according to a source familiar. -Washington Examiner

Last May, House Republicans sought to use formal powers to block DHS from operating a so-called governance board – after Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) and 61 GOP members including Pfluger introduced legislation that would “prohibit any federal funds from being used to establish or carry out the activities of any other entity that is substantially similar” to the Disinformation Governance Board, which they nicknamed the “Ministry of Truth.”

“Instead of censoring and controlling every aspect of the American public’s lives, DHS should focus on the crisis at the southern border,” Jackson told the Examiner. “I have faith in the American people to decipher knowledge for themselves. I do not have any faith in so-called ‘disinformation experts’ from the Biden administration.”

END

One big joke!! Hunter Biden indicted on only Federal firearms charges

(zerohedge)

Hunter Biden Indicted On Federal Firearms Charge

THURSDAY, SEP 14, 2023 – 01:34 PM

Hunter Biden has been indicted on three counts related to the possession of a gun while using narcotics, court documents show.

The move, a “historic indictment against the son of a sitting president,” comes after an absurd plea deal fell apart, and days after House Republicans launched an impeachment inquiry which seeks bank records and other documents on the Biden family’s business dealings.

The case is being overseen by special counsel David Weiss, who also headed the investigation. Weiss is a Trump appointee who was kept on as U.S. attorney for Delaware because of the sensitive and unique nature of the investigation into a president’s son by the Justice Department, a part of the executive branch headed by the president. U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland named Weiss special counsel in August, as negotiations over the tax and gun charges collapsed.

Of course, none of this has to do with perhaps the biggest grift in the US history – as the Biden family raked in more than $20 million from foreign sources – including figures in China, Ukraine, Russia and Romania, all funneled through a complex arrangement of corporations, according to House GOP investigators and whistleblowers who are currently seeking Biden bank records.

For example, in 2017, Hunter pulled in over $2.3 million – with $1 million of that coming from a company he formed with the CEO of a Chinese conglomerate. He also  took in $664,000 from a Chinese infrastructure investment firm, $500,000 from a Ukrainian energy company (we assume to be Burisma), $70,000 from a Romanian business, $48,000 from an international law firm, and $666,000 from domestic business interests.

In 2018, Hunter made over $2.1 million according to the unraveled plea deal – which came as his drug addiction went critical. According to Biden’s memoir, cited by the document, that year saw “a spring and summer of nonstop debauchery.”

According to the agreement, Biden was well aware of his tax liabilities from an accountant he hired. The accountant prepared Biden’s returns and sent them to him for review and signature. Despite repeated encouragement by his accountant, Biden never signed or submitted his returns.

According to the agreement, Biden failed to pay his taxes despite having the money to do so. By May 2019, he had spent money he could have used for that purpose “on personal expenses, including large cash withdrawals, payments to or on behalf of his children, credit card balances, and car payments for his Porsche.” -Bloomberg

By October 2021, Biden’s tax liabilities for 2017 and 2018 had grown to $955,800 and $956,632 respectively – and were paid for by an unidentified third party. That personal also covered $45,661 and $197,372 to resolve outstanding tax issues from 2016 and 2019.

Earlier this year, the NYT reported that Hollywood entertainment lawyer Kevin ‘bong rip‘ Morris lent over $2 million to Biden to help with his taxes.

Of note, an IRS whistleblower from the agency’s criminal investigations unit told the House Ways and Means Committee in June that Hunter Biden illegally deducted tens of thousands of dollars spent on prostitutes and a sex club from his taxes, according to testimony from June 1 which was released by House Republicans.

“So some of the items that he deducted were personal no-show employees. He deducted payments that were made to who he called his West Coast assistant, but she was essentially a prostitute,” said the whistleblower, who worked directly on the IRS’s investigation into Hunter’s tax issues, speaking of the younger Biden’s 2018 return.

Another whistleblower, IRS supervisory agent Gary Shapely , told the committee on May 26 that he found several instances of Hunter expensing flights for prostitutes.

“There were multiple examples of prostitutes that were ordered basically, and we have all the communications between that where he would pay for these prostitutes, would book them a flight where even the flight ticket showed their name. And then he expensed those,” said Shapely , who noted that they were expensed to Biden’s consulting firm, Owasco, PC.

What’s more, Hunter expensed a deposit for an elite Los Angeles sex club (which he was kicked out of for ‘grabbing women’s asses‘ and ‘acting like a spoiled child’).

But hey, he also owned a gun while being a junkie. Get ’em boys.

THE KING REPORT

The King Report September 14, 2023 Issue 7075Independent View of the News
 US August CPI increased 3.7% y/y; 3.6% was consensus, 3.2% prior.  Headline CPI increased the expected 0.6%; but Core CPI increased 0.3% m/m; 0.2% was expected.  Y/y Core was the expected 4.3%.
 
Gasoline inflated 10.6% m/m. August CPI Report: The index for used cars and trucks fell 1.2 percent in August, after decreasing 1.3 percent in July. The recreation index declined 0.2 percent over the month, and the communication index declined 0.1 percent… https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
 
@FrogNews: Don’t listen to anyone telling you housing is slowing.  They add hotels into this category
Large drop [-3.6%] in hotel prices (a bad sign) which dragged down the shelter index.
https://twitter.com/FrogNews/status/1701941363707720062
 
@pboockvar: The cost of auto insurance up 19% y/o/y in August and 2.4% in the month alone, wow.
https://twitter.com/pboockvar/status/1701946158476566856
 
Financial asset bulls and Biden acolytes labored to downplay and dismiss the August CPI Report.  However, the reality is US CPI bottomed in June at 3%.  It is now 3.7%! And that is after 525bps of Fed rate hikes!  As we keeping harping, there is too much liquidity and fiscal spending in the system!
@GOP: Today’s inflation report showed that the inflation rate surged to 3.7% – more than 2.5x the rate when Biden took office. Prices are up 17.4% and real wages are down 3.1% since Biden took office…
 
@Convertbond: Before 2021, looking back 40 years, CPI has been above today’s levels, less than 5% of the time..*Over $9T of fiscal deficit spending since 2020 (+$3.5T in 2022 and 2023), coming out of Washington, all into Powell’s 525bps of rate hikes… https://t.co/vXmyb6u8Be
    Brent* – Highest since November 2022, +32% since late June…*a supply deficit of close to 3.5m bpd in Q4, the biggest shortfall since at least 2007. – Bloomberg
 
@FrancoisTrahan: Here are the GDP Nowcast figures from the Fed for Q3: St. Louis Fed Nowcast (9/8): -0.25% y/y; New York Fed Nowcast (9/8): +2.2% y/y; Atlanta Fed Nowcast (9/8): +5.6% y/y
Good work guys. Super clear. Economy is either contracting slightly or roaring?!? Got it!
 
Citi Plans Job Cuts as It Revamps Top Management Structure
The firm is scrapping its two longtime core operating units, one of which focused on institutional clients while the other housed the firm’s consumer offerings…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citigroup-plans-job-cuts-revamps-130000136.html
 
American Airlines cuts adjusted profit forecast for third quarter…to account for higher fuel costs and expenses related to its new collective bargaining agreement with the ALPA union. The carrier now expects an adjusted profit of between about 20 cents to 30 cents per share in the third quarter, down from its prior range of about 85 cents to 95 cents per share.   https://t.co/PoUhWy4ETi
 
Airlines Squeezed by Fuel Costs in Growth Warnings – BBG (Heath Burke, Editor) 10:06 ET
Transport was a contributor to the latest US CPI data.  Airfares rose 4.9% and dropping 8.1% in each of the previous two months…Airlines are only a tiny part of the S&P 500, but they offer a read-across to the consumer and companies with oil as a big cost – and neither is optimistic…
 
CMBS Delinquency Rate Has Jumped 56 Percent since January
5.07 percent in August 2023 to mark a 40 basis point increase from a month prior and a 177 basis point jump since January. Notably, 62 percent of the newly delinquent loans, based on their outstanding balances, were a result of maturity defaults or refinancing challenges. CRED iQ’s special servicing rate, equal to the percentage of CMBS loans that are with the special servicer (delinquent or non-delinquent), increased modestly month-over-month to 6.73 percent, from 6.72 percent…
https://commercialobserver.com/2023/09/cmbs-delinquency-rate-has-jumped-56-percent-since-january/
 
UK July GDP -0.5% m/m, -0.2% expected, +0.5% prior; 3m/3m GDP 0.2%, 0.3% expected and prior
 
ESZs meandered between modest gains and losses during early Nikkei trading; but they broke down near 21:30 ET.  After finding support at 4505, ESZ rallied during the final hour of Nikkei trading.  When Japan closed at 1 ET, ESZs sank but again bottomed at 4505.00.  The rally into the Europe opening developed; it ended at 3:48 ET with ESZ at 4518.00.  They then declined but found support at and just below 4505 two more times.  ESZs tumbled to a daily low of 4495.00 after the 8:30 ET US CPI release.
 
Pundits and the financial media boldly asserted that the CPI will not change the Fed’s high probability of a rate hike pause next week. Others proclaimed the end of Fed rate hikes for this cycle. 
 
J.P.Morgan expects no further Fed interest rate hikes this cycle
“Despite still rising oil prices in early September, we expect the impact of oil price spikes on CPI to be limited,” J.P.Morgan’s Chief Global Strategist David Kelly said… (Tell that to consumers & businesses!)
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/j-p-morgan-expects-no-160855691.html
 
So, traders poured into ESZs and stocks.  ESZs hit 4525.75 one minute after the NYSE 9:30 ET opening. The ‘Dump’ pushed ESZs to 4503.00 at 10:16 ET. The 2nd Hour Reversal boosted ESZs to 4525.50 near 11:00 ET.  ESZs hit a new daily high of 4539.00 for the 11:30 ET European close.
 
ESZs and stocks then churned, trading sideways in mostly a 10-handle range.  A minor new high of 4530.35 appeared at 13:48 ET; but ESZs and stocks quickly reentered the trading range.  At 14:45 ET, ESZs sank; they hit 4505.75 at 15:14 ET.  The late manipulation began; ESZs hit 4521.25 at the close.
 
USZs hit a low of 118 8/32, -1 6/32, at 8:26 ET; 4 minutes before the US Aug CPI Report was released.  They hit a high of 119 27/32 at 14:03 ET.  USZs were 119 18/32, +4/32, at the NYSE close.
 
Positive aspects of previous session.
Major equity indices, ex-the DJIA, rallied modestly due to the late manipulation
Bonds rallied 1 9/32 from the intraday low
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Gasoline rallied moderately; WTI oil dipped $0.06
There is little enthusiasm or pizazz in the US financial markets
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Is The Street back in Fed rate hike denial stage again?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4466.78
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low4479.39; 4453.52
 
DeSantis knocks Trump, Biden for ‘spending this country into oblivion’ in new ad as inflation surges  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/desantis-knocks-trump-biden-for-spending-this-country-into-oblivion-in-new-ad-as-inflation-surges
 
Today – The S&P 500 Index has traded sideways since the Labor Day Weekend.  Despite all the hope & hype of a Fed Pause or the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle, stocks are treading water.  The prudent course is to wait and watch, not anticipate.  Let the market tell its story.
 
image.png
S&P 500 Index, hourly basis
 
4500 on the S&P 500 Index is resistance.  Bulls need to push the index through 4500 to incite momentum buying.  USZs remain in a downtrend; they trying to remain about the August low (117 18/32).
 
ESUs are +9.50 and USUs are +7/32 at 21:00 ET on a 13% y/y drop in Japan core machine orders, the biggest decline in 3 years.  Bad economic news remains good for financial assets (CB largesse continues).
 
Expected econ data: Aug PPI 0.2% m/m & 1.3%, Core PPI 0.2% & 2.7% y/y; Aug Retail Sales 0.1% m/m, ex-Autos 0.4%, ex-Autos & Gas -0.1%; Initial Jobless Claims 225k, Continuing Claims 1.695m; July Business Inventories 0.1% m/m
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4481; 100-day MA: 4357; 150-day MA: 4249; 200-day MA: 4177
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,805; 100-day MA: 35,221; 150-day MA: 33,846; 200-day MA: 33,799
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are positive – a close below 3814.46 triggers a sell signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4586.76 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4431.22 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4457.93 triggers a sell signal
 
Turley: Marching Orders: White House Letter Tells Media to “Ramp up Their Scrutiny” in Response to Impeachment Inquiry – The level of advocacy and bias has created a danger of a de facto state media in the United States… a letter drafted by the Biden White House Legal Counsel’s Office was striking in a call for major media to “ramp up their scrutiny” of House Republicans “for opening an impeachment inquiry based on lies.”…  
    The White House is now actively involved in pushing narratives and denying factual allegations linked to the Biden corruption scandal… Second, the letter was drafted by Ian Sams, a spokesperson for the White House Counsel’s Office. So White House lawyers are now enlisting the media in a counter media campaign against impeachment? The letter removes any pretense of separation between the Biden personal legal team and the White House Counsel’s office… Third, the letter calls for the media to actively support the White House account. The draft of the letter is a call for…“advocacy journalism” where reporters frame stories to advance their own viewpoints or values…
    The letter has an uncomfortable feeling of marching orders to the media.  This is a media that followed the lead of Biden associates in spreading the false story that the Hunter laptop was Russian disinformation… what is most disturbing is that the White House shows no reluctance or concern in making such an open pitch to the pressThere is a sense of license in using the media as an extension of the White House press push. The fact that this is a representative of the White House counsel’s office is particularly chilling… https://jonathanturley.org/2023/09/13/marching-orders-white-house-letter-tells-media-to-ramp-up-their-scrutiny-in-response-to-impeachment-inquiry/
 
GOP Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene slams White House memo urging media to scrutinize GOP over Biden impeachment – “Isn’t it amazing that the mainstream media is basically the campaign and the propaganda arm of the Democrat Party?” Greene said
https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/marjorie-taylor-greene-slams-white-house-memo-urging-media-scrutinize-gop
 
IRS Whistleblower Gives Congress More Documents, Boosting His Credibility and Busting the DOJ’s – Shapley’s handwritten notes bolster his earlier testimony and debunk an FBI agent’s counterclaim that Weiss had not said he lacked authority to charge Hunter Biden.
https://thefederalist.com/2023/09/13/irs-whistleblower-gives-congress-more-documents-boosting-his-credibility-and-busting-the-dojs/
 
@ByronYork: New York Times McCarthy impeachment inquiry article includes statement that 2019 Trump impeachment was ‘opened with a vote of the full House.’ That is flat-out wrong. Here is Pelosi announcing impeachment inquiry on 9/24/19 with no vote, plus NYT headline.
https://twitter.com/ByronYork/status/1701677326285603259
 
House Oversight Committee: Evidence of Joe Biden’s Involvement in His Family’s Influence Peddling Schemes https://oversight.house.gov/blog/evidence-of-joe-bidens-involvement-in-his-familys-influence-peddling-schemes/
 
Grounds for Biden impeachment inquiry explained in six words: ‘Public offices are not for sale’
In letter to colleagues, House Speaker lays out justifications for escalating to an impeachment inquiry
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/wedgrounds-biden-impeachment-inquiry-explained-six-words-public
 
GOP Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene says Biden impeachment probe will expose ‘EVERYONE’ who ‘covered up his crimes’ https://t.co/LpUtcMcHrJ
 
FBI official can’t recall, refuses to answer questions over Hunter Biden whistleblower cover-up claims – A transcript of FBI Special Agent Thomas Sobocinski’s closed-door testimony before the House Judiciary Committee… reveals that the Justice Department detailed what Sobocinski could and couldn’t talk about with lawmakers a day before his Sept. 7 interview… https://trib.al/ntYoB66
 
@_StephanieMyers: House Judiciary Committee Chairman @Jim_Jordan will hold a hearing next week on Oversight of the DOJ…, “examining how the Justice Department has become politicized and weaponized under the leadership of Attorney General Merrick Garland.” Garland will be testifying.
 
Hunter Biden scored meeting with father, business associates inside VP home at Naval Observatory
One of many meetings that dispel the Democrat narrative of mere ‘illusion of access.”
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/thuhunter-biden-delivered-meeting-father-business-associates-inside
 
@tomselliott: WH’s @IanSams46: Biden attended Hunter’s business meetings because he “loves” him
https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1701948037118021878
 
For years, Biden and his stooges asserted that The Big Guy did NOT talk to Hunter about his personal businesses.  A few months ago, the official Team Biden changed to Joe did not meet with Hunter’s business associates.  Now, Team Biden is trying to gaslight people by stating that The Big Guy got involved in Hunter’s business dealings because he loves Hunter soooooo much.
 
Turley: Five Facts That Compel the House’s Biden Impeachment Inquiry
https://themessenger.com/opinion/five-facts-that-compel-the-houses-biden-impeachment-inquiry
 
RFK Jr urges Biden to debate, prove to voters that ‘unelected people’ aren’t running White House
“It’s important for the American people to know that their president has the vigor to handle this very rigorous job and I think there are enough doubts about that now that President Biden really needs to come out and have an unscripted meetings and interactions with voters, that he needs to do some town halls and retail politics and hopefully a debate so that the American people can make a choice about whether or not the president is up to the job,” Kennedy said… https://t.co/vNf1kFVZQq
 
Dem Claire McCaskill recalls her, other Senators ‘laughing sometimes at Joe Biden’ when he was VP – McCaskill quickly adds, ‘I wasn’t laughing … But other people were kind of making fun of him’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/claire-mccaskill-recalls-her-other-senators-laughing-sometimes-joe-biden-vp
 
Biden ripped Obama for having ‘no grace’ in 2010 email where Hunter accused the then-president of COPYING his father’s speeches https://trib.al/VNWgc6Y
 
Top Washington Post columnist urges Biden to drop out of 2024 race
Ignatius asserts that Biden’s age “isn’t just a Fox News trope… it’s been the subject of dinner-table conversations across America this summer.”… cites a recent Associated Press-NORC poll, which found that more than three-quarters of the American public (77%) — including a notable 69 percent of Democrats — think Biden is too old to be effective for four more years.. https://trib.al/8fKvfbx
 
Mitt Romney declines to run for reelection in Senate: ‘It’s time for a new generation of leaders’
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/mitt-romney-declines-run-reelection-senate-its-time-new-generation
 
@TheBabylonBee: Democrats Scramble to Find Replacement for Retiring Mitt Romney (RINO)
“This is a huge blow for the Democratic Party,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. “Romney has been one of our most reliable senators. He will be sorely missed.”…
https://babylonbee.com/news/democrats-scramble-to-find-replacement-for-retiring-mitt-romney
 
Murder Rate Mystery: New FBI Crime Stats Don’t Include NYC, LA (More bogus gov stats!)
    Biggest US cities haven’t converted to new reporting system
    Policymakers urged to exercise care amid data ‘blind spots’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/murder-rate-mystery-new-fbi-crime-stats-don-t-include-nyc-la
 
@JunkScience: What a ‘net zero’ US would mean to global temperature, per the IPCC MAGICC model.
– 0.0738°F warmer by 2050; and  – 0.1872°F warmer by 2100. So even if you believe the climate hoax (i.e, emissions cause warming) the amount of warming would not even be measurable. https://t.co/aholf3r6Qn
 
@wideawake_media: Australian broadcaster, Alan Jones, utterly schools a panel of climate zealots on the reality of the #ClimateScam.  “CO2 is 0.04% of the atmosphere, and human beings are responsible for 3% of that 0.04%… It’s like saying: ‘There’s a granule of sugar on the Harbour Bridge. Clean the bridge up, it’s dirty’.”  https://twitter.com/wideawake_media/status/1701883874333057476

END  

GREG HUNTER 

see you on FRIDAY

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