sorry that today’ report is not too details as I was not feeling well throughout the day.

thanks

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $1.35 TO $1818.35

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.08 AT $20.88

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1819.70.

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 20.96

SEPT 27//SHANGHAI GOLD

Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price

USD oz AM2014.57

PM1985.03

Historical SGE Fix

premium $122,00

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Bitcoin morning price:,

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $27,532 DOWN 253 dollars

Platinum price closing $860.75 DOWN $9.60

Palladium price; $1148.70 DOWN $22.05

END

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,494,60 down 6.40 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1493.64 DOWN 16.30 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1724.93 DOWN 17.40 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,818.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/04/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 10/06/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

323 C HSBC 139
323 H HSBC 2
357 C WEDBUSH 4
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 7
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 134 7

TOTAL: 148 148
MONTH TO DATE: 8,735

JPMorgan stopped 0/148 contracts.

FOR OCT.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 148 NOTICES FOR 14800 OZ or .4603 TONNES

total notices so far: 8735 contracts for 873500 oz (27.169 tonnes)

FOR OCT:

SILVER NOTICES:17 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 85,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 334 for 1,670,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS AT THE SLV// WOW!! A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ// (MASSIVE FRAUD)

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 450.211 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY STRONG SIZED 569 CONTRACTS TO 125,278 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG $0.34 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A GIGANTIC SIZED 952 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 922 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.34). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 2027 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A MEGA HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 2596 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 80,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 1.785 MILLION O///STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 922 CONTRACTS)/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -569 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 4 days, total 9522 contracts: OR 47.610 MILLION OZ (2380 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 47.610 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 47.610 MILLION OZ (THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE//AND MOST LIKELY A NEW RECORD)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 569 CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.34 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2596 ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 80,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP:NEW TOTAL STANDING 1.785 MILLION OZ /// WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2027 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GIGANTIC SIZED 922 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (922) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .

WE HAD 17 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 85,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 1857 CONTRACTS TO 431,374 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: + ADDED 139 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 148 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $7.40 LOSS IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 24,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP/NEW STANDING 27.767 TONNES/ + /A STRONG (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1060 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $7.40 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 5293 OI CONTRACTS (16.463 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5145 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 431,374

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5293 CONTRACTS WITH 148 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5145 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5293 CONTRACTS OR 16.463 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 1060 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5145 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE TINY SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (148) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5293 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 18,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 27.039 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION BUT CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION AND SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2041 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 19,402 CONTRACTS OR 1,940,200 OZ OR 60.348 TONNES IN 4TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4851 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN4 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 60.348 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 60.348/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.69% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 60.348 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 569 CONTRACTS OI TO 125,278 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE A MEGA GIGANTIC 2596 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 3326 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2596 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 569 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2596 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2027 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 10.135 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE $0.34 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 18.03 PTS OR 0.10% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 548.48 PTS OR 1.80% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.50 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.3169 /Oil DOWN TO 82.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 84.65 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 148 CONTRACTS TO 431,374 DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.40 ON TUESDAY.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 5145 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 5145 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5145 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5293 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5145 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 148 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.40//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1060 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (27.767) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT. 27.767 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $7.40) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 5293 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 16.463 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 24,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTALS STANDING:27.767 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $7.40. FOR THE PAST WEEK, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE BANKERS PULL THE PLUG ON OUR SPECS.

WE HAD + ADDED 139 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5293 CONTRACTS OR 529,300 OZ OR 16.463 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 165,517 poor

final gold volumes/yesterday 205,170 fair/

//speculators have left the gold arena

//OCT 5/ /// THE OCT. 2023 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	30,537.725 oz OZ ASAHIA HSBC 2 KILOBARS MALCA .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	148 notice(s) 14800 OZ .4603 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	192 contracts 19200 oz 0.597 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	8753 notices 875300 OZ 26.167 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

customer deposits: 0

total customer deposits: 0 oz

we had 3 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Brinks: 64.302 oz (2 kilobars)

ii) Out of Malca: 1003.749 oz

iii) Out of Asahi: 29,469.674 oz

total withdrawals 30,537.725. oz

Adjustments; 4 dealer to customer

i)HSBC: 4822.60 oz

ii) Looms: 6365.898 oz

iii) Malca 6751.710oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 340 contracts having GAINED 65 contracts. We had 179 contracts filed on Wednesday, so we gained 244 contracts or an additional 22400 oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. Somebody, for the 4th day in a row, was in urgent need of a huge supply of physical gold over here.

NOV LOST 100 CONTRACTS to stand at 1102

December LOST 2928 contracts down to 368,986 contracts.

We had 148 contracts filed for today representing 14800 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 148 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8735 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (340 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 148 x 100 oz per contract equals 892,700 OZ OR 27.767 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT. contract month: No of notices filed so far (8735) x 100 oz + (340) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (148) x 100 oz) which equals 892,700 oz standing OR 27.767 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 27.767 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,023,223.140 OZ 62.93 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 20,786,829.070 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,190,827.783 (316.94 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,596,001.287 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,167,604 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 254.04 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 5

//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	136,954.962 oz Brinks Delaware .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	607,580.100 oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)	17 CONTRACT(S) (85,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	23 contracts (115,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	334 Contracts (1,670,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: 0

total: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 deposit customer account:

i) Into CNT: 607,580.100 oz

total customer deposit 607,580.100oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.236 million oz/273.225 million or 48.38%

Comex withdrawals 2

i) Out of Brinks 122,871.300oz

ii)out of Delaware 14,083.662 o

total: 136,954.962 oz

adjustments: 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.638 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 273.225 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 50 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 115 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 133 NOTICES FILED

ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 18 CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A QUEUE JUMP OF 90,000 OZ

NOVEMBER LOST 27 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 522

DEC. LOST 3379 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 109.729 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 34 for 170,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 57,976 //fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 75,724 strong//

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 334 x 5,000 oz = 1,670,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (40) and the number of notices served upon today 17 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 347 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (40) – number of notices served upon today (17 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 1.785 million oz.

There are 37.638 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES

OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 869.31 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 441.883 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

This is a big story : a massive 77 tonnes of central bank buying. This is real physical moving into central bank coffers!

Central Bank Gold Buying Continued To Sizzle In August

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 09:25 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Central bank gold buying continues to sizzle.

Central banks globally added a net 77 tons to their reserves in August, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council.

It was the third straight month of net purchases. Over the last three months, net gold buying by central banks totaled 219 tons.

In March, April and May, central banks reported net gold sales, primarily due to Turkey selling 160 tons of gold over that three-month period. According to the World Gold Council, this was a specific response to local market dynamics and didn’t likely reflect a change in the Turkish central bank’s long-term gold strategy.

Turkey returned to buying gold in June and added another 14.7 tons in August, joining China, Poland and Uzbekistan as the biggest buyers for the month.

According to the World Gold Council, the Turkish government reinstated gold import quotas in early August. There was some speculation that domestic shortages could lead to central bank gold sales to meet demand, but this clearly wasn’t the case.

The People’s Bank of China ranked as the largest buyer in August, adding 28.9 tons of gold to its holdings. It was the 10th consecutive month of buying for the Chinese central bank. China is the largest gold buyer year-to-date, having increased its official reserves by 166 tons since the beginning of the year and 217 tons since it resumed official purchases last November. The People’s Bank of China now officially holds 2,165 tons of gold, making up 4% of its total reserves.

China has a history of adding to reserves and then going silent.

The People’s Bank of China accumulated 1,448 tons of gold between 2002 and 2019, and then reported nothing for more than two years before resuming reporting last fall.

Many speculate that the Chinese continued to add gold to its holdings off the books during those silent years.

In fact, there has always been speculation that China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

Last year, there were large unreported increases in central bank gold holdings. Central banks that often fail to report purchases include China and Russia. Many analysts believe China is the mystery buyer stockpiling gold to minimize exposure to the dollar.

The National Bank of Poland added 14.9 tons of gold to its reserves. That brings its year-to-date total to 88 tons.

In the fall of 2021, Bank of Poland President Adam Glapiński said the central bank planned to add 100 tons of gold to its reserves in 2022. It’s unclear why the bank didn’t follow through, but it is now just 12 tons short of that stated goal.

When he announced the plan to expand its gold reserves, Glapiński said holding gold was a matter of financial security and stability.

Gold will retain its value even when someone cuts off the power to the global financial system, destroying traditional assets based on electronic accounting records. Of course, we do not assume that this will happen. But as the saying goes – forewarned is always insured. And the central bank is required to be prepared for even the most unfavorable circumstances. That is why we see a special place for gold in our foreign exchange management process.”

India has been buying relatively small amounts of gold for the last four months. The Reserve Bank of India increased its holdings by 1.9 tons in August.

The RBI added 7 tons in Q1. Since resuming buying in late 2017, the Reserve Bank of India has purchased over 200 tons of gold. In August 2020, there were reports that the RBI was considering significantly raising its gold reserves.

Russia reported a 3.1-ton increase in its gold reserves. This brings the country’s gold holdings back to where they were at the beginning of the year. Russia was a big buyer prior to its invasion of Ukraine. Last month, there were reports that Russia would recommence the buying of foreign currency and gold in the coming months, but there were few details about the plan.

Uzbekistan has cycled back to buying with an 8.7-ton gold purchase. It is not uncommon for banks that buy from domestic production – such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan – to switch between buying and selling.

Kazakhstan reported a small half-ton purchases in August.

Three other central banks bought gold in August.

The Czech Republic – 1.7 tons
Kyrgyz Republic – 0.7 tons
Singapore – 1.6 tons

There were no significant sales reported in August.

Bloomberg reported that Bolivia “monetized” 17 tons of its gold reserves between May and August following the enactment of a law authorizing the central bank to utilize its gold reserves. But according to the World Gold Council, it’s unclear what is meant by “monetize.” Currently, data Central Bank of Bolivia gold reserves is not available after April.

The WGC characterized central bank gold buying as “healthy.”

Even accounting for the net sales earlier in the year, the pace of buying so far this year suggests that we are on course for another strong annual total.”

Even with Turkey’s big sales earlier this year, net central bank gold purchases totaled 387 tons through the first half of the year. That was the highest first-half total since the organization started compiling quarterly data in 2000. This continued the trend of increasing gold reserves we saw last year.

Total central bank gold buying in 2022 came in at 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971. It was the 13th straight year of net central bank gold purchases.

According to the 2023 Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey recently released by the World Gold Council, 24% of central banks plan to add more gold to their reserves in the next 12 months. Seventy-one percent of central banks surveyed believe the overall level of global reserves will increase in the next 12 months. That was a 10-point increase over last year.

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

James Rickards..

Something “Big & Stupid” Is Coming…

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 09:45 AM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

With debt levels reaching all-time highs in major developed and developing economies, and with debt-to-GDP ratios also in record territory (not including contingent liabilities such as Social Security, health care and other entitlements, which make matters worse), it seems time to consider just how nations will deal with this problem.

The debt crisis may not be imminent, but it is unavoidable. When it happens, it may present the greatest financial disaster of all time. It’s never too soon for investors to consider the fallout.

When you issue debt in a currency you print, there’s no need for default in the sense of non-payment.

You can just have the central bank buy the debt (by printing money). This is the situation today in the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and the European Monetary Union (the countries that use the euro). They all have huge debt burdens, but they all have central banks that can simply buy the debt by printing money to avoid default.

Non-Payment Is Not the Issue

There are many bad consequences to printing money and storing up debt on central bank balance sheets, but non-payment of debt is not one of them. This is the mantra of the Modern Monetary Theorists (MMT) and their thought leader Stephanie Kelton.

In my view, MMT is garbage as economic policy, but the no-default tenet is valid. George Soros says the same thing.

That said, we are well past the point where the debt can be managed with real growth. That threshold is about a 90% debt-to-GDP ratio. A 60% debt-to-GDP ratio is even more comfortable and can be managed.

Unfortunately, the major reserve currency economies are all well past the 90% ratio as are those of many smaller countries. The U.S. ratio is 134%, an all-time high. The U.K. ratio is 102%. France is 111%. Spain is 112%. Italy is 145%.

China reports a figure of 77% but this is highly misleading because it ignores provincial debt for which Beijing is ultimately responsible. China’s actual figure is over 200% when provisional debt is included.

The champion debtor is Japan at 261%. The only major economy with a halfway respectable ratio is Germany at 67%. It’s Germany’s misfortune that they are probably responsible for the rest of Europe through the ECB Target2 system.

All these countries are headed for default. But we must consider the different ways to conduct a default.

There are three basic ways to default: non-payment, inflation and debt restructuring. You can take non-payment off the table for the reason mentioned above — you can always just print the money.

The same goes for restructuring. Inflation is clearly the best way to default. You pay back the money in nominal terms, but it’s worth very little in real terms. The creditor loses and the debtor countries win.

Nice and Easy Does It

The key to inflating away the real value of debt is to go slowly. It’s like stealing money from your mother’s purse. If she has $50 and you take $40, she’ll notice. If you take one dollar, she won’t notice. But a dollar stolen every day adds up over time.

This is what the U.S. did from 1945–1980. At the end of World War II, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 120% (about where it is now). By 1980, the ratio was 30%, which is entirely manageable.

Of course, nominal debt and GDP soared, but nominal GDP went up faster than nominal debt, so the ratio fell. If you can keep inflation around 3% and interest rates around 2% and exert fiscal discipline (which we did under Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon and Ford), the nominal GDP will grow faster than nominal debt (due to the Fed capping rates).

If you improve the ratio by, say, 2% per year and keep it up for 35 years (1945–1980), you can cut the ratio by 70%. That’s what we did.

The key was to do it slowly (like stealing from your mom’s purse). Almost no one noticed the decline in the real value of money until we got to the blow-off stage (1978–1981). But by then it was mission accomplished.

So there are two ways to deal with excessive debt: fiscal discipline and inflation. From 1945–1980, the U.S. did just that. If you run inflation at 3% and interest rates are 2%, you melt the real value of debt. If you exert fiscal discipline relative to GDP, you decrease the nominal debt-to-GDP ratio.

We did both.

The reason the debt-to-GDP ratio is back up to 134% is that Bush 45, Obama, Trump and Biden ignored the formula. Since 2000, fiscal policy has been reckless so the formula doesn’t work. The problem isn’t really “money printing” (most of the money the Fed prints just comes back to the Fed as excess reserves, so it doesn’t do anything in the real economy).

The problem is that nominal debt is going up faster than nominal GDP, so the debt-to-GDP ratio goes up. This dynamic will be made much worse by the huge increase in interest rates over the past 18 months.

You can’t borrow your way out of a debt crisis. We have also been unable to generate much inflation. Inflation ran below 2% for almost all of the 2009–2019 recovery.

Japan Writ Large

Looking at the global picture, it’s important to understand that Japan is just a bigger version of the U.S. They don’t have fiscal discipline and they can’t get inflation to save their lives. The only way out for Japan is hyperinflation, which will come but not yet.

Japan can probably keep the debt game going for a while. The crash will come when the currency collapses. When I started in banking, USD/JPY was 400. Those were the days!

A debt crisis is on the way. Something big and stupid (in the words of the brilliant analyst Stephanie Pomboy) is coming from policymakers to address the issue. But the solution won’t be a policy and it won’t be a plan. A crisis will just happen almost overnight and seem to come from nowhere.

But it will come.

END

This is important: Citibank has 85.5% of its deposits lack FDIC insurance

(Pam and Russ Martens)

Pam and Russ Martens: Despite Citibank’s record bailout in 2008, 85.5% of its deposits lack FDIC insurance

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-10-05 11:35Section: Daily Dispatches

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, October 5, 2023

As evidenced by the speech that the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Martin Gruenberg, delivered at a conference yesterday, the FDIC is very much aware that both the level of uninsured deposits and the concentration of those uninsured deposits among a handful of mega banks is a serious problem for the U.S. banking system.

Gruenberg didn’t name names, but we will do that in this article.

Gruenberg pointed out in his speech that year-end data for the three banks that failed this past spring indicated that anywhere from 90% to 70% of their deposits were uninsured. (During a banking panic, uninsured deposits are typically those that head for the exits at the fastest clip.)

But those three failed banks (Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank) were minnows compared to the asset-size of the banking whales that now account for most uninsured deposits in the U.S. banking system.

According to the FDIC, as of June 30 there were 4,645 federally-insured commercial banks and savings associations in the United States. Uninsured deposits at all 4,645 institutions totaled $7.134 trillion at the end of the second quarter.

But according to call reports filed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup’s Citibank, as of June 30, just those four banks accounted for $4.185 trillion of uninsured deposits, or 59% of all uninsured deposits at all 4,645 federally-insured institutions. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

After Getting the Largest Bailout in U.S. History in 2008, 85.5 Percent of the $1.34 Trillion in Deposits at Citigroup’s Citibank Lack FDIC Insurance Today

END

(Bloomberg)

Forex reserves remain Asia’s first defense vs. relentless dollar

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-10-04 17:11Section: Daily Dispatches

By Subhadip Sircar and Swati Pandey
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, October 4, 2023

The dollar’s recent rally has been relentless. But Asia’s central banks have the firepower to limit the fallout.

Policy makers in the region have more than $5.5 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves that they can deploy to shore up their currencies, according to calculations by TD Securities, using data compiled by Bloomberg. The stockpile reached a record high of $5.9 trillion in 2021.

Focus is shifting to what steps authorities in the region may take after verbal warnings and stronger fixings failed to arrest the downdraft in their currencies. While exporters stand to benefit if their currencies weaken, a sustained bout of depreciation risks triggering capital outflows.

“Asian central banks have the firepower from their FX reserves like last year to intervene if they choose to,” said Alex Loo, Singapore-based Asia FX and macro-strategist at TD. “We think jawboning efforts may suffice for now.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-04/forex-pile-remains-asia-s-first-defense-versus-relentless-dollar

END

Your weekend reading material

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: Unwinding the financial system

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-10-05 11:25Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
Head of Research, GoldMoney, Toronto
via Schiff Gold, White Plains, New York
Thursday, October 5, 2023

This article looks at the collateral side of financial transactions and some significant problems that are already emerging.

At a time when there is a veritable tsunami of dollar credit in foreign hands overhanging markets, it is obvious that continually falling bond prices will ensure bear markets in all financial asset values leading to dollar liquidation. This unwinding corrects an accumulation of foreign-owned dollars and dollar denominated assets since the Second World War both in and outside the U.S. financial system.

Furthermore, collapsing collateral values, which are increasingly required backing for changing values in over $400 trillion nominal in interest rate swaps, are a new driver for the crisis, forcing bond liquidation, driving prices down, and yields higher. We are in a doom loop.

What action can the authorities take to ensure that counterparty risk from widespread failures won’t take out inadequately capitalised regulated exchanges?

It seems that they acted some time ago by giving central security depositories (the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp., Euroclear, and Clearstream) the right to pool securities on their registers and lend them out as collateral. Your investments, which you think you own, can be absorbed into the failing financial system without your knowledge.

This seems particularly relevant, given the appointment of JPMorgan Chase as custodian of the large gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Trust (GLD). In a test case in the New York courts concerning Lehman’s failure, JPMC was given legal protection should it seize its customers’ assets.

This important erosion of property rights is poorly understood. But as the financial distortions are unwound, leading to unintended consequences such as bank failures and ultimately the collapse of the dollar-based fiat currency regime, the implication is that holders of physical gold ETFs will be left owning an empty shell at a time when they might have expected some protection from the collapse of the value of credit. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://schiffgold.com/commentaries/unwinding-the-financial-system/

END

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:ORANGE JUICE

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.3169

SHANGHAI CLOSED

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 18.03 PTS OR 0.10%

2. Nikkei closed UP 548.48 PTS OR 1.80 %

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 106.36 EURO RISES TO 1.0524 UP 18 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.807 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.85/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.9200***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.895*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 4.025…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.330

3j Gold at $1822.60 silver at: 21.11 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 16 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 99.74//

3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.85// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.807% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9144 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9624 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.741 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.872 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.039 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.56…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 1 BASIS PTS AT 4.633

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

USA EARLY MORNING REPORT

Nervous Futures Erase Early Losses With All Eyes On Yields

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 08:16 AM

US equity futures were flat on Thursday, reversing earlier modest losses, with Asia and Europe both solidly in the green after days of losses as global markets steadied thanks to bonds halting their rout as investors looked ahead to more weak labor market data tomorrow. As of 7:45am, S&P 500 futures were unchanged at 4,298 and the yield on 10-year Treasuries was flat 4.71%. The dollar was steady while commodities extended their losses dragged by Energy. WTI has lost ~$10 in six trading sessions, -10.8%, and is virtually unchanged on the year after breaching $95 late last week. Today’s macro data focus includes Jobless Claims and Job Cuts; there are two Fed speakers and announcements on the next wave of bond auctions. Tomorrow we get the Sept NFP which according to JPM “may mean more than next week’s CPI.”

In premarket trading, Clorox falls as much as 4.1% after the cleaning-products maker said preliminary net sales dropped by 23%-28% in the quarter ended Sept 30 after a cyberattack that disrupted production. Prior to the attack, disclosed in mid-August, Clorox had been expecting “mid-single-digits” organic sales growth in the quarter. MaxCyte owner of a platform used in the cell therapy market, slumps 22% after the company posted preliminary third-quarter revenue that disappointed as customer demand wanes. It’s London shares slumped 30%. Rivian Automotive falls as much as 8% after the electric-vehicle maker announced plans to issue $1.5 billion in convertible debt and reported preliminary third-quarter revenue. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

BioXcel Therapeutics (BTAI) falls 6.4% after Truist Securities analyst Robyn Karnauskas downgraded the biotech firm to hold from buy.
Cambium Networks’ (CMBM) shares are plummeting 32%, after the wireless networking infrastructure company reported preliminary third-quarter revenue that prompted at least two analyst downgrades.
Ceridian HCM Holding Inc. (CDAY) shares are up 2.1% after Needham upgraded the human capital management software company to buy from hold.
Clorox (CLX) — the cleaning-products maker reeling from a cyberattack that disrupted production — falls 4.4% after saying preliminary net sales dropped by 23%-28% in the quarter ended Sept. 30.
Nanobiotix ADRs (NBTX) sink 20% after the company said 10 deaths occurred within 180 days of enrollment of a dose-expansion trial for its investigational treatment for patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer.
Orchard Therapeutics ADRs (ORTX) surge 97% after Japan’s Kyowa Kirin agreed to acquire the UK biopharmaceutical company for $387.4 million, or $16 per American depository share.
UWM Holdings Corp. (UWMC) shares are up 2.8% after BTIG upgraded the mortgage finance company to buy from neutral.

Investor sentiment remains fragile after a painful selloff spiked volatility across markets this week driven by US bond yields soared to multi-year highs. Weekly US jobless claims data is due later today, and the monthly payrolls report will be released on Friday, which could cement bets on a November rate hike. Currently, swaps price a one-in-four chance of a Fed move next month.

“Friday’s payrolls data, and next week’s inflation number will decide whether the 10-year Treasury yield goes up to 5% or down to 4.5%,” Societe Generale strategist Kenneth Broux said. A higher-than-forecast jobs number could trigger “another wave of dollar-buying and bond-selling,” he added.

Despite nascent signs of market calm, strategists remain skeptical about the long-term economic toll of higher-for-longer interest rates. Echoing similar concerns from JPM and Goldman, overnight Barclays analysts wrote in a note that global bonds are doomed to keep falling unless a sustained slump in equities revives the appeal of fixed-income assets.

“There is no magic level of yields that, when reached, will automatically draw in enough buyers to spark a sustained bond rally,” analysts led by Ajay Rajadhyaksha said. “In the short term, we can think of one scenario where bonds rally materially. If risk assets fall sharply in the coming weeks.”

European stocks rose to session highs, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.5% after a three-day decline. Among individual movers in Europe, Alstom SA shares plunged 35% after the French train maker slashed its financial guidance due to delays on UK contracts and a rise in inventories. Here are the biggest European movers:

Pandora shares jumped as much as 10% in Copenhagen trading after the jewelry maker presented new financial targets, indicating higher growth rates and profitability over the next three years.
SMA Solar shares jump as much as 17%, most since June, after the maker of photovoltaic systems boosted its sales forecast for the third time this year. Oddo also upgraded the German firm to outperform.
Sandoz shares gain as much as 5.6% after the maker of copycat medicines that was spun off from Novartis gets a new overweight rating at Morgan Stanley, an outperform recommendation at ZKB, and is started with a buy at Berenberg based on its encouraging biosimilar pipeline.
Redcare Pharmacy shares gain as much as 6.8% after the German online pharmacy reported what analysts said was “strong growth” in its preliminary third-quarter results.
Imperial Brands gains as much as 1.9% after the cigarette maker announced a buyback of as much as £1.1 billion. The news could help the stock rally from recent lows, with UK regulatory concerns looking “overdone,” according to Citi.
Alstom shares plunge as much as 38%, falling to the lowest level since 2005, after the French rail-equipment maker slashed its free cash flow forecast on a jump in inventories.
Metro Bank shares slumped as much as 29% to a record low after Bloomberg News reported the UK lender has hired Morgan Stanley to explore a potential capital raise.
Cofinimmo falls as much as 6.2% after an offering of shares in the Belgian real estate firm prices via BNP Paribas, ING, Belfius/Kepler and KBC at €60 apiece, representing about 7% discount to last close.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rebounded after a three-day slide that pushed the regional benchmark into a technical correction, as risk sentiment improved following an easing of this week’s selloff in US Treasuries. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.5%, the most in five weeks, driven by gains in the financial and technology groups. Equity benchmarks in Japan and Taiwan were among the top performers in the region. US stocks advanced overnight after data showing job gains cooled, helping ease fears over the Federal Reserve’s policy path and halting the recent surge in bond yields. Oil fell the most in more than a year overnight, helping lessen concern over inflation.

Hang Seng initially lagged amid very light news flow and the continued absence of mainland participants, while the latest Hong Kong PMI data printed at a deeper-than-previous contraction. However, the momentum eventually picked up in Hong Kong amid the brightened mood across regional counterparts and after Sunac China’s offshore debt restructuring plans received court approval.
Australia’s ASX 200 was positive following mostly improved trade data and with the gains led by yield-sensitive sectors including real estate and tech.
Nikkei 225 outperformed on bargain buying with the index set to snap a five-day losing streak.
KOSPI gained as participants shrugged off the firmer-than-expected CPI data which the BoK expects to stabilise into year-end.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index pared an earlier fall to rise 0.1% ahead of initial jobless claims data due Thursday

EUR/USD pared earlier gains to trade little changed on the day
GBP/USD snapped Wednesday’s gain, falling 0.1% to 1.2119
USD/JPY dropped 0.1% to 148.98 after hitting the day’s low of 148.26

In rates, Treasuries steadied, with the benchmark 10-year note reversing an earlier move higher to trade around 4.71%, some 4bps lower on the day, and well off 16-year highs hit this week. European government bonds edged lower; 10-year gilt yields rose 5 basis points to 4.63% while 10-year bund yields were 4 basis points higher at 2.95% German and UK long-end yields are up by 5bps and 4bps respectively. US 5s30s spread exceeds 17bp, widest since May, while 2s10s inversion lessens further. Front-end swaps price in around 7bp of rate-hike premium for Fed’s November policy meeting, down from around 9bp at Monday’s close. Dollar IG issuance slate includes MuniFin 3Y; two borrowers priced combined $1b on Wednesday as issuers paid 5bps in new-issue concession on order books that were 5.9 times covered.

In commodities, oil prices add to Wednesday’s sharp decline, with WTI falling 1.2% to trade near $83.30. Spot gold is up 0.1%.

Bitcoin is subdued but remains north of $27,500 with price action uneventful.

Today’s US economic data slate includes September Challenger job cuts (7:30am), August trade balance and initial jobless claims (8:30am). Scheduled Fed speakers include Mester (9am), Kashkari (10:40am), Barkin (11:30am), Daly (12pm) and Barr (12:15pm).

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,294.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 442.16
MXAP up 1.1% to 154.02
MXAPJ up 0.6% to 482.08
Nikkei up 1.8% to 31,075.36
Topix up 2.0% to 2,263.76
Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 17,213.87
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,110.48
Sensex up 0.7% to 65,692.31
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,925.49
Kospi little changed at 2,403.60
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.94%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0515
Brent Futures up 0.1% to $85.93/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,821.90
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.72

Top Overnight News

Taiwan’s headline CPI climbs to +2.93% in Sept (up from +2.53% in Aug and above the Street’s +2.5% forecast) while core eases to +2.48% (down from +2.57% in Aug). South Korea’s core CPI was flat M/M and inline w/the Street at +3.3%, but the headline number rose to +3.7%, up from +3.4% in Aug and ahead of the Street’s +3.5% forecast. WSJ
Belgium’s intelligence service has been monitoring Alibaba’s main logistics hub in Europe for espionage following suspicions Beijing has been exploiting its growing economic presence in the west. FT
UK construction activity fell more than expected in September and posted its biggest slide since May 2020, driven by a steep downturn in housing, according to a closely watched survey. FT
Germany’s trade numbers for Aug fall short of expectations, with exports -1.2% (vs. the Street -0.6%) and imports -0.4% (vs. the Street +0.5%). RTRS
Vladimir Putin’s cabinet is turning to increasingly irregular revenue-raising measures to fund a rapid rise in defense spending, which has tripled since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Russian government has said it aims to spend a staggering Rbs10.8tn ($108bn) on defense next year, three times the amount allocated in 2021, the last year before the invasion, and 70 per cent more than was planned for this year. FT
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is confident he still has broad US backing despite “strange” voices in Congress and the exclusion of more aid for Kyiv from a US spending deal. FT
Deficits suddenly matter – it’s been decades since investors had to grapple with elevated spending/debt pushing Treasury yields higher, but this is now a growing part of the present narrative. WSJ
JPMorgan Chase has stepped up the pace at which it is securitising billions of dollars of its loan portfolio in anticipation of proposed new US capital requirements for large banks, according to people familiar with the matter. FT
Amazon and Microsoft’s cloud services face a UK antitrust probe into whether they made it hard for customers to switch or mix providers. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher as risk assets found reprieve after yields eased back from recent peaks following weak US ADP jobs data and a slump in oil prices. ASX 200 was positive following mostly improved trade data and with the gains led by yield-sensitive sectors including real estate and tech. Nikkei 225 outperformed on bargain buying with the index set to snap a five-day losing streak. KOSPI gained as participants shrugged off the firmer-than-expected CPI data which the BoK expects to stabilise into year-end. Hang Seng initially lagged amid very light news flow and the continued absence of mainland participants, while the latest Hong Kong PMI data printed at a deeper-than-previous contraction. However, the momentum eventually picked up in Hong Kong amid the brightened mood across regional counterparts and after Sunac China’s offshore debt restructuring plans received court approval.

Top Asian News

Alibaba’s (9988 HK) logistics arm in Liege, Belgium is under scrutiny from Belgian intelligence over the use of sensitive data, according to FT.
Sunac China’s (1918 HK) offshore debt restructuring plans received approval from a Hong Kong court.
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said TikTok poses national security risks, while she hopes to make some chips funding announcements this fall, according to Reuters.
Taiwan is to probe four firms accused of helping Huawei build chip plants although Taipei said no violations of US trade sanctions have been confirmed so far, according to Nikkei.
Apple (AAPL) supplier Foxconn (2317 TW) says Q4 is expected to grow significantly compared to Q3; with H2 a traditional peak season for the ICT industry, operations will ramp up sequentially. New product launch in September led to a strong revenue growth compared to prev. quarter, but the revenue experienced a decline YoY due to a high base. In Q3 for cloud and networking products, due to conservative customers pull-in revenue experienced a decline YY. For September, due to increasing allocations in smart consumer electronics products and rising shipment in auto components, revenue for components and other products showed significant growth YY, according to Reuters.

European bourses are choppy but ultimately trade flat at the time of writing in what has thus far been a session void of incremental macro news. Sectors in Europe are mixed, with outperformance in the Travel & Leisure sector as airlines welcome yesterday’s pullback in crude prices. Conversely, to the downside, Energy names lag. US futures saw broad-based losses with sentiment turning sour since the European cash open, coinciding with a slight rise in yields.

Top European News

ECB’s Kazimir said September EZ core inflation confirmed ECB expectations and reiterated that he believes the last rate hike was the final one. He said we need to be convinced we are at the top of the rate cycle based on data available in December and March meetings, and when asked what would trigger a December hike, said this is not a scenario I’d like. He added we are trajectory of declining inflation, and inflation decline is taking somewhat longer. Kazimir added we should not at the moment use other tools such as balance sheet until we are certain we do not need to hike rates further, according to Reuters.
ECB’s de Guindos said the current level of interest rates to help tame inflation; adding “we’re data dependent”. He added it is premature to discuss rate cuts.
Low water levels after recent dry weather are preventing cargo vessels from sailing fully loaded on the Rhine river in Germany, with surcharges added to usual freight rates, according to traders cited by Reuters.
BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – September 2023: One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations increased slightly to 4.9% in September, up from 4.8% in August. Three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations remained flat at 3.2% in September. Expected year-ahead wage growth remained unchanged at 5.1% on a three-month moving average basis, though the single month reading for September at 5.2% was 0.2 percentage points higher than in August.

DXY index remains relatively contained between 106.500-840 confines and the Buck stayed broadly softer awaiting Challenger Layoffs, jobless claims and NFP on Friday for the next major fundamental driver.
Antipodeans narrowly outperform with the AUD gleaning support from a wider-than-expected trade surplus.
Pound was flagging even before a more contractionary than feared UK construction PMI. Cable remains capped by the 10 DMA and retreated towards 1.2100.
Fix demand and exporter supply underpinned the Yen on the way from sub-149.00 to 148.27, and before the upturn in yields.

Fixed Income

Having bounced further Wednesday’s lows, bonds are showing traits of fatigue and a reversion to the bear trend that was in place before their midweek reprieve.
Bunds have regrouped after their retreat to 127.21 and are back above par alongside Eurozone peers bar Bonos.
Gilts are underwater following a reverse from 92.37 to 91.94, irrespective of a deeper than anticipated contraction in the UK construction PMI.
T-notes are lagging within a 107-09/106-31+ range ahead of Challenger Layoffs, jobless claims, trade and another busy slate of Fed orators.
France sold EUR 9.94bln vs exp. EUR 9-10.5bln 3.50% 2033, 2.50% 2043, and 3.00% 2054 OAT.
Spain sold EUR 6.44bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 3.50% 2029, 2.35% 2033 and 1.00% 2042 Bono.

Commodities

Crude futures remain on the backfoot following yesterday’s mammoth decline which saw both contracts settle lower by over USD 5/bbl apiece.
Dutch TTF is softer despite a twist in the Australian LNG saga in which unions are likely to vote to resume strikes at Chevron facilities after Australia’s Offshore Alliance said Chevron reneged on commitment given to FWC
Spot gold is flat intraday awaiting tomorrow’s US labour market report, with the yellow metal uneventful within yesterday’s USD 1,815.50-30.39/oz parameters.
Australian Union Representative said members are likely to vote to resume strikes at Chevron (CVX) facilities in meetings commencing later tonight, according to Reuters. Australia’s Offshore Alliance said Chevron reneged on the commitment given to FWC to incorporate recommendations into Co’s EBA’s for Wheatstone and Gorgon facilities; members called a meeting at 19:00 tonight for all members on a day shift or off-facility.
Turkish Energy Minister said the Iraq-Turkey pipeline is operational as of Wednesday and no obstacle to shipping oil to global markets; when asked about oil flows started on the pipeline, and added that Turkey stands ready to ship incoming oil, via NTV.
Russia’s President Putin ordered to consider the introduction of regulated fuel oil prices during the heating season, via Tass.

US Event Calendar

07:30: Sept. Challenger Job Cuts +58.2% YoY, prior 266.9%
08:30: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210,000, prior 204,000
08:30: Sept. Continuing Claims, est. 1.67m, prior 1.67m
08:30: Aug. Trade Balance, est. -$59.8b, prior -$65b

Central Bank Speakers

09:00: Fed’s Mester Speaks at Chicago Payments Symposium
10:40: Fed’s Kashkari Moderates Q&A at Conference
11:30: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
12:00: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Economic Club of New York
12:15: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Cyber Risk in the Banking Sector

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Berlin. I nearly didn’t get here as I was held at airport security for 30 minutes as my bag repeatedly set off their alarm when they swabbed it. I got my bag completely emptied and turned upside down, was given a full body search, got interrogated about where I was going, where I lived and where I worked. The only thing they didn’t ask me is why bonds keep selling off? I can only think the kids spilt some gunk or glue on my bag leaving some suspicious residue.

With much relief and just before last call, they gave me the all clear and let me go. Relief also extended across financial markets yesterday, as after a fraught start we saw bonds and equities rally back following a tough few days. However, the recovery accelerated with bad employment data, so the answer to how to get out of the recent rout was clearly the return of bad news is good news.

Things looked very different an hour after we went to print yesterday. The bond rout had intensified at an alarming rate, which given recent moves is an impressive thing to say, especially given the time of the day. At this point, the 30yr Treasury yield surpassed 5%, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield hit an intraday high of 4.88%, which we haven’t seen since 8 August 2007, the day before BNP Paribas froze €1.6bn worth of funds due to issues among US subprime mortgages. That’s often taken to be one of the first tremors of the global financial crisis, so in some ways you could say the 10yr yield was finally back to levels seen prior to the GFC. But after reaching those highs in the European morning, we then had a sharp reversal of more than -10bps intraday, with the 10yr yield ending the session -6.3bps lower at 4.73%, which has been followed by a further -2.3bps fall overnight to 4.71% this morning. Meanwhile, 2yr yields (-9.8bps) saw their largest decline since late August. And 30yr yields closed at 4.86% after poking their head above 5% for the first time since 2007 for just a few minutes.

There were also violent moves elsewhere, none more so than oil, with Brent Crude down -5.62% to $85.81/bbl, its largest daily decline in over a year. Bear in mind it was only last Friday that Brent closed at $95.31/bbl, so its losses for the week already stand at -9.97% over just three days so far. If that holds, it would be the worst weekly performance for oil since the banking turmoil back in March. That trend lower is in line with other cyclical commodities over recent days, and copper (-0.88%) fell to a 4-month low as well yesterday.

Back to the bond turnaround, where the rally from the London breakfast yield highs got extra legs after some weaker-than-expected data on the US labour market, as the ADP’s report of private payrolls showed just +89k jobs were added in September (vs. +150k expected). That’s the weakest number since January 2021, and raised concerns about what that might mean for tomorrow’s jobs report, even if the correlation has been weak month-to-month between the two. They could be moving in the same general direction though, and remember the payrolls trend over recent months has been decisively lower, with the 3-month average now standing at a post-pandemic low of +150k. Shortly after ADP, we then got the ISM services for September, which came in broadly as expected at 53.6 (vs. 53.5 expected). However, the new orders subcomponent fell to its lowest so far in 2023, at just 51.8. For markets, the weak data led investors to dial back the chances of another rate hike from the Fed this year, which fell from 52% beforehand to 42% by the close yesterday.

That said, even as Treasuries managed to rally, we got fresh evidence yesterday about how the recent rise in rates was already filtering through to the real economy. For instance, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed the 30yr fixed mortgage rate was up to 7.53% in the week ending September 29. That’s an increase of 12bps on the previous week, and the highest they’ve been since 2000. Furthermore, the index of home purchase applications fell to fresh “not since 1995” lows.

Yields also opened at new highs in Europe as well, with the 10yr bund yield trading above 3% for the first time since 2011. But as with the US, they came off those highs during the session, with yields on 10yr bunds (-4.9bps), OATs (-5.1bps) and BTPs (-7.5bps) all falling back. Even so, that wasn’t much help for European equities, and the STOXX 600 fell another -0.14% on the day to a fresh 6-month low.

US equities managed to post a much better performance and close around the highs for the session. The S&P 500 managed to gain +0.81%, its strongest advance in nearly three weeks, with most of the increase coming in the final hour or two of the US session. Megacap tech stocks led the way, as the NASDAQ (+1.35%) and the Magnificent Seven (+2.21%) saw stronger advances. The S&P 500’s advance was a broad one, though energy stocks (-3.36%) suffered amidst the oil weakness. Small caps also underperformed, with the Russell 2000 index only up a modest +0.11%, leaving it -1.83% down YTD.

That recovery has continued in Asia overnight, with equities posting a very strong performance. For instance in Japan, the Nikkei (+1.67%) is currently on track to end a run of 5 consecutive declines, with its best daily performance since August, whilst the TOPIX (+2.00%) is on track for its best performance of 2023 so far. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.76%) and the Hang Seng (+0.76%) have also posted a decent advance, whilst markets in mainland China remain closed for a holiday. Looking forward, US equity futures are steady this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.03%.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, US factory orders were stronger than expected in August, with a +1.2% gain (vs. +0.3% expected). However, Euro Area retail sales in August were worse than expected, with a -1.2% contraction (vs. -0.5% expected). Otherwise, the final composite PMI numbers were slightly better than the initial flash prints, with the Euro Area number at 47.2 (vs. flash 47.1) and the US number at 50.2 (vs. flash 50.1).

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include weekly initial jobless claims and the August trade balance. Over in Europe, there’s also French industrial production for August, and the September construction PMIs from Germany and the UK. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Mester, Kashkari, Barkin, Daly and Barr, ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Kazimir, Lane and Nagel, along with BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent.

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Equities choppy, DXY lacklustre, Antipodeans outperform & Bonds bounce; US IJC due – Newsquawk US Market Open

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 06:19 AM

European bourses are choppy but ultimately trade flat at the time of writing in what has thus far been a session void of incremental macro news.
DXY index remains relatively contained between 106.500-840 confines; Antipodeans narrowly outperform; Pound was flagging even before a more contractionary than feared UK construction PMI.
Having bounced further Wednesday’s lows, bonds are showing traits of fatigue and a reversion to the bear trend that was in place before their midweek reprieve.
Crude futures remain on the backfoot following yesterday’s mammoth decline which saw both contracts settle lower by over USD 5/bbl apiece.
Looking ahead, highlights include US IJCs & Challenger Layoffs, Fed’s Mester, Barkin, Daly, Barr, ECB’s Nagel, de Guindos, and Villeroy.

5th October 2023

Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead summary.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are choppy but ultimately trade flat at the time of writing in what has thus far been a session void of incremental macro news.
Sectors in Europe are mixed, with outperformance in the Travel & Leisure sector as airlines welcome yesterday’s pullback in crude prices. Conversely, to the downside, Energy names lag.
US futures saw broad-based losses with sentiment turning sour since the European cash open, coinciding with a slight rise in yields.
Click here for more details.

FX

DXY index remains relatively contained between 106.500-840 confines and the Buck stayed broadly softer awaiting Challenger Layoffs, jobless claims and NFP on Friday for the next major fundamental driver.
Antipodeans narrowly outperform with the AUD gleaning support from a wider-than-expected trade surplus.
Pound was flagging even before a more contractionary than feared UK construction PMI. Cable remains capped by the 10 DMA and retreated towards 1.2100.
Fix demand and exporter supply underpinned the Yen on the way from sub-149.00 to 148.27, and before the upturn in yields.
Click here for more details.
Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Having bounced further Wednesday’s lows, bonds are showing traits of fatigue and a reversion to the bear trend that was in place before their midweek reprieve.
Bunds have regrouped after their retreat to 127.21 and are back above par alongside Eurozone peers bar Bonos.
Gilts are underwater following a reverse from 92.37 to 91.94, irrespective of a deeper than anticipated contraction in the UK construction PMI.
T-notes are lagging within a 107-09/106-31+ range ahead of Challenger Layoffs, jobless claims, trade and another busy slate of Fed orators.
France sold EUR 9.94bln vs exp. EUR 9-10.5bln 3.50% 2033, 2.50% 2043, and 3.00% 2054 OAT.
Spain sold EUR 6.44bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 3.50% 2029, 2.35% 2033 and 1.00% 2042 Bono.
Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

Crude futures remain on the backfoot following yesterday’s mammoth decline which saw both contracts settle lower by over USD 5/bbl apiece.
Dutch TTF is softer despite a twist in the Australian LNG saga in which unions are likely to vote to resume strikes at Chevron facilities after Australia’s Offshore Alliance said Chevron reneged on commitment given to FWC
Spot gold is flat intraday awaiting tomorrow’s US labour market report, with the yellow metal uneventful within yesterday’s USD 1,815.50-30.39/oz parameters.
Australian Union Representative said members are likely to vote to resume strikes at Chevron (CVX) facilities in meetings commencing later tonight, according to Reuters. Australia’s Offshore Alliance said Chevron reneged on the commitment given to FWC to incorporate recommendations into Co’s EBA’s for Wheatstone and Gorgon facilities; members called a meeting at 19:00 tonight for all members on a day shift or off-facility.
Turkish Energy Minister said the Iraq-Turkey pipeline is operational as of Wednesday and no obstacle to shipping oil to global markets; when asked about oil flows started on the pipeline, and added that Turkey stands ready to ship incoming oil, via NTV.
Russia’s President Putin ordered to consider the introduction of regulated fuel oil prices during the heating season, via Tass.
Click here for more details.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

ECB’s Kazimir said September EZ core inflation confirmed ECB expectations and reiterated that he believes the last rate hike was the final one. He said we need to be convinced we are at the top of the rate cycle based on data available in December and March meetings, and when asked what would trigger a December hike, said this is not a scenario I’d like. He added we are trajectory of declining inflation, and inflation decline is taking somewhat longer. Kazimir added we should not at the moment use other tools such as balance sheet until we are certain we do not need to hike rates further, according to Reuters.
ECB’s de Guindos said the current level of interest rates to help tame inflation; adding “we’re data dependent”. He added it is premature to discuss rate cuts.
Low water levels after recent dry weather are preventing cargo vessels from sailing fully loaded on the Rhine river in Germany, with surcharges added to usual freight rates, according to traders cited by Reuters.
BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – September 2023: One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations increased slightly to 4.9% in September, up from 4.8% in August. Three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations remained flat at 3.2% in September. Expected year-ahead wage growth remained unchanged at 5.1% on a three-month moving average basis, though the single month reading for September at 5.2% was 0.2 percentage points higher than in August.

DATA RECAP

EU HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 43.6 (Prev. 43.4)
German HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 39.3 (Prev. 41.5)
French HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 43.7 (Prev. 42.4)
Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 49.8 (Prev. 47.7)
UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep) 45.0 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 50.8)
German Trade Balance, EUR, SA* (Aug 2023) 16.6B vs. Exp. 15.0B (Prev. 15.9B, Rev. 17.7B)
German Imports MM SA* (Aug 2023) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.4%, Rev. -1.3%)
German Exports MM SA* (Aug 2023) -1.2% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -0.9%, Rev. -1.9%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

UK’s Ofcom on UK cloud market said it referred the UK cloud market to CMA for investigation; says particularly concerned about the position of market leaders Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT), as reported by Reuters sources on Tuesday.
Alphabet’s Google (GOOG) users have been given “better control over their data” by the German Cartel Office, according to Reuters.
Ford (F) is to lay off an additional 400 workers due to strikes with the total layoffs tied to strikes now at 1,330 employees.
Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is modestly subdued but remains north of USD 27,500 with price action uneventful.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded higher as risk assets found reprieve after yields eased back from recent peaks following weak US ADP jobs data and a slump in oil prices.
ASX 200 was positive following mostly improved trade data and with the gains led by yield-sensitive sectors including real estate and tech.
Nikkei 225 outperformed on bargain buying with the index set to snap a five-day losing streak.
KOSPI gained as participants shrugged off the firmer-than-expected CPI data which the BoK expects to stabilise into year-end.
Hang Seng initially lagged amid very light news flow and the continued absence of mainland participants, while the latest Hong Kong PMI data printed at a deeper-than-previous contraction. However, the momentum eventually picked up in Hong Kong amid the brightened mood across regional counterparts and after Sunac China’s offshore debt restructuring plans received court approval.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Alibaba’s (9988 HK) logistics arm in Liege, Belgium is under scrutiny from Belgian intelligence over the use of sensitive data, according to FT.
Sunac China’s (1918 HK) offshore debt restructuring plans received approval from a Hong Kong court.
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said TikTok poses national security risks, while she hopes to make some chips funding announcements this fall, according to Reuters.
Taiwan is to probe four firms accused of helping Huawei build chip plants although Taipei said no violations of US trade sanctions have been confirmed so far, according to Nikkei.
Apple (AAPL) supplier Foxconn (2317 TW) says Q4 is expected to grow significantly compared to Q3; with H2 a traditional peak season for the ICT industry, operations will ramp up sequentially. New product launch in September led to a strong revenue growth compared to prev. quarter, but the revenue experienced a decline YoY due to a high base. In Q3 for cloud and networking products, due to conservative customers pull-in revenue experienced a decline YY. For September, due to increasing allocations in smart consumer electronics products and rising shipment in auto components, revenue for components and other products showed significant growth YY, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

South Korean CPI MM (Sep) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.0%)
South Korean CPI YY (Sep) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Aug) 9.6B vs. Exp. 8.7B (Prev. 8.0B)
Australian Exports MM (Aug) 4.0% (Prev. -2.0%)
Australian Imports MM (Aug) 0.0% (Prev. 3.0%)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

//NORTH KOREA/

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN/

end

3 CHINA /

CHINA/

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE

Large train maker Alstrom has its shares crash by 38% and its bonds tumble by the most ever with its cash flow warning.

(zerohedge)

French Train Maker Alstom Shares Crash 38%, Bonds Tumble Most Ever, On Cash Flow Warning

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 07:45 AM

Shares of the French train maker Alstom crashed as much as 38%, and its bonds fell the most on record on Thursday, following the company’s disclosure of preliminary financial information indicating a significant decline in its free cash flow projections, attributed to rising inventories.

The results showed Alstom’s free cash flow had plunged from -45 million euros to a whopping -1.15 billion euros. It now expects negative 500-750 million euros for the full year, compared with earlier forecasts that were “significantly positive.”

FIRST-HALF RESULTS

Alstom forecast negative free cash flow for the full year; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate.

2024 YEAR FORECAST

Sees negative free cash flow EU500 million to EU750 million, estimate positive EU287.5 million (Bloomberg Consensus)
Still sees adjusted Ebit margin about 6%, estimated 6.16%

Alstom has the world’s most extensive portfolio of components for the rail sector. This news concerns Wall Street analysts who warn that a capital raise could be nearing.

Deutsche Bank analyst Gael de-Bray told clients the warning is a “major blow” to top executives’ credibility. The analyst sees a capital increase that is “increasingly likely” due to the troubled $5.5 billion acquisition of Canadian manufacturer Bombardier.

Shares of Alstom trading on the Paris Stock Exchange crashed 35%. Biggest one day crash in two decades.

Bonds of the French train maker due 2029 sank more than 3% – the most on record – to about 78 cents on the euro.

Alstom blamed surging inventories on supply chain snarls in the US and Europe:

This, combined with tight supply chain conditions, resulted in a significant increase in the level of inventories and contract assets built in order to avoid production disruption and delivery delays during the first half of the year, particularly in Americas and in Europe.

Here’s what other Wall Street analysts are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Jefferies (buy)

Analyst Simon Toennessen says hit from delay in completing UK Aventra program and the significant revising down of free cash flow are key focus

Despite this, orders and organic growth were “decent” in 1H

Strong market momentum and orders to be booked in 2H should help support a recovery, but inventory normalization will take more time

Citi (buy)

Results update points toward a significant cash drag in 1H24, analyst Martin Wilkie writes

Notes that Alstom wouldn’t be drawn on free cash flow guidance for FY25, and based on track record means cash improvement is very much a “show me” story

Although Alstom has ruled out an equity raise, expect shares to remain depressed ahead of full results on Nov. 15.

The French government will likely intervene if the situation worsens.

end

NATO/EUROPE/RUSSIA

It has everything to do with NATO expansion: the true reason for the war

(zerohedge)

“Never About NATO, Nothing To Do With NATO”

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 06:55 AM

“This is not about NATO expansion!”… the Western public has been told over and over again of the war in Ukraine, now in its 20th month. “Never about NATO… Nothing to do with NATO” – has been the constant refrain from US officials and media “authorities”. Below is a video compilation by Matt Orfalea showing Western media personalities and analysts claiming that the war in Ukraine had nothing to do with NATO expansion… but then oops… only this last month NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg clearly and repeatedly acknowledged that Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine because of fears of NATO expansionism in a speech before the EU Parliament’s foreign affairs committee.

For a trip down memory lane, and more importantly so this epic compilation of clips highlighting the MSM drumbeat of lies doesn’t get memory-holed, watch the below compilation by Matt Orfalea…

Stoltenberg’s September 7th speech laid out in reference to Vladimir Putin, “He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe, we should remove NATO from that part of our Alliance, introducing some kind of B, or second class membership.”

Stoltenberg then emphasized in what constitutes a rare moment of agreement with Professor John Mearsheimer (unintentional perhaps)

“We [NATO] rejected that. So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders.”

Below is the original Stoltenberg footage from early September in full…

NATO Sec-Gen Jens Stoltenberg declares the Ukraine proxy war a fight for NATO expansion and the limitless right to place military installations on Russia’s frontiers – something no Western power would accept from an adversary pic.twitter.com/ZaJFBjQnre— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) September 22, 2023

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/USA/SYRIA

USA jet shoots down ally Turkey’s armed drone over the occupied oil fields

(zerohedge)

US Jet Shoots Down Turkish Drone Over Syria After Attack On Occupied Oil Field

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 11:58 AM

There are emerging reports that Turkey just attempted a drone attack on a US-occupied oil field in northern Syria on Thursday. “A U.S. jet fighter shot down a Turkish drone on Thursday after it was deemed a threat to U.S. forces in northeast Syria, a person familiar with the episode said,” The Wall Street Journal has confirmed.

Turkey immediately claimed the drone wasn’t operated by its forces, “But one American official described it as an armed Turkish drone and said that the U.S. was aware of that before it acted,” WSJ continues. Unverified footage of the drone shootdown is widely circulating:

The Turkish attack was reportedly in response to a bombing in Ankara claimed by Kurdish militias. The Turkish air force then launched a series of attacks on Syria’s Hasakah governorate, which has for years been held by US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). But Turkey has long seen the SDF, which is dominated by the Syrian Kurdish YPG, as an extension of the PKK, considered by Ankara to be a terror organization.

“Hawar News Agencyreports that among the targets was an oil site in Qamishli and the Jal Agha Dam,” writes Beirut-based news source The Cradle. “Furthermore, several deaths and injuries were reported following a Turkish drone attack on the town of Tel Habash.”

Crucially, US forces have small bases scattered throughout the very areas which came under attack. SDF-aligned local officials have confirmed the “revenge” strikes by Turkey and its regional proxies. “Targeting infrastructure facilities is aggressive behavior amounts to war crimes,” an SDF affiliated statement said, saying that its facilities, including civilian infrastructure, were targeted.

Turkey also confirmed it conducted cross-border operations, but rejected responsibility for the drone attack:

“Our only goal is to eliminate the terrorist organizations that pose a threat to Turkey. A ground operation is one of the options to eliminate this threat, but it is not the only option for us,” a Turkish official told reporters following the latest round of airstrikes. His comments came as the Turkish army deployed ground reinforcements to areas under its control in the northwest of Syria.

The anti-Assad, UK-based monitoring group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has also said that the US coalition shot down a Turkish drone in what marks a serious “NATO vs. NATO” escalation over Syrian skies, ironically enough.

A Turkish drone targets the Amuda power station:

At least eight people have been killed in Thursday’s Turkish strikes on Syria, reports Reuters:

At least eight people have been killed in Turkish drone strikes on Thursday on the Kurdish-held zone of northeast Syria, a war monitor and a local security source said, following Ankara’s threats against Kurdish military facilities in Syria and Iraq.

Two were killed in a strike on a car near a military facility and another six were killed in a later strike on a military post near the town of Amuda, the security source told Reuters.

According to more details from WSJ, “The U.S. aircraft that downed the drone, which was armed with air-to-ground munitions, was an F-16. The action was taken as American troops were conducting operations nearby, a U.S. official said.”

This appears the most significant Turkish coordinated operation in years, and is sure to ratchet already simmering tensions with Washington further.

It also comes at a moment of internecine fighting between US-backed Kurds and Arab tribes in Syria’s Deir Ezzor region. All of this means the US occupation is facing its fiercest pressure, also at a time Damascus is maneuvering to force American forces off its sovereign territory.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

GLOBAL ISSUES

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

CDC Ends COVID-19 Vaccination Cards

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 10:45 AM

Authored by Caden Pearsen via The E#poch Times,

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is phasing out its COVID-19 vaccination cards, according to an Oct. 4 update on the agency’s website.

Considered a controversial relic of the pandemic era, the white cards once determined who could and could not participate in society, such as by barring or allowing entry to businesses, schools, and workplaces, based on whether someone had received the COVID-19 jab or not.

Now, the CDC has stopped printing the cards because the federal government is no longer in charge of COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Since the height of pandemic restrictions in late 2020 and up to May 10, the federal government had sent out more than 980 million cards, according to the CDC.

“CDC no longer distributes the white CDC COVID-19 Vaccination cards and does not maintain vaccination records,” the CDC states in its updated frequently asked questions.

“Contact your state health department’s immunization information system (IIS). Your state’s IIS cannot issue you a vaccination card, but they can provide a digital or paper copy of your full vaccination record, including your COVID-19 vaccinations.”

However, the days are largely over when you would need to keep your white vaccination card tucked into your wallet or purse if you wanted to attend a festival, bar, or restaurant.

Similar requirements became commonplace and controversial around the world, prompting criticism in some places of a two-tiered economy.

With their necessity now a thing of the past, federal and local health officials don’t expect the discontinuation of the cards to be a particularly big change.

In 2021, after President Joe Biden announced vaccine mandates, the ubiquitous white cards spawned a black market industry, leading U.S. authorities to declare such actions illegal. New York even made faking a jab card a Class D felony in December 2021, with violators of the new state laws facing anywhere from probation up to seven years in prison.

That year, the Federal Bureau of Investigation stated that buying, selling, or using counterfeit COVID-19 vaccination cards was a crime, and violators would face a fine and up to five years in prison. U.S. Customs and Border Protection also blocked shipments of fake cards coming from China.

In a recent case, a former Chicago pharmacist was found guilty in federal court for stealing and selling authentic COVID-19 vaccination cards on eBay in June.

Blank COVID-19 vaccination cards are stacked at a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination clinic at Larry Flynt’s Hustler Club in Las Vegas, Nev., on Dec. 21, 2021. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

What’s in Store for Proof of Vaccination?

The cards will remain valid as proof of vaccination. But going forward, people will need to request their immunization records from the health department, a clinic, or a pharmacy as they would for any other vaccine.

Heidi Gurov, a nurse consultant at the Wyoming Department of Health, advises people to treat their vaccination cards like any other important health record and recommends keeping them in a “safe spot.”

Across the nation, states and certain cities maintain immunization registries, but the procedures for record inclusion and access can vary. Notably, immunization records from the mass vaccination efforts during the early pandemic days are typically stored in these registries, depending on the particular state’s regulations. There is no unified, nationwide immunization record registry in place.

States vary in their approach to immunization records. For example, in Texas, patient consent is required, while places like Wyoming and Philadelphia have providers log vaccinations. Many states offer digital records through apps or websites, allowing users to save certificates or QR codes as proof of vaccination, with some providing tracking and reminders for future doses.

“One of the positives (during the pandemic) was having increased autonomy on your patient record, especially the immunization record,” said Jeff Chorath, who manages the immunization information system in Washington state.

Those who’ve lost their vaccination card can usually request their immunization record from where they got their shot or through their state’s registry. Some states also offer digital vaccination cards.

end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Witholding antibiotics killed hundreds of thousands, millions during COVID & doctors were CRIMINAL going along! FRANKLIN O’KANU’s brilliant stack “How COVID-19 Protocols Killed Millions Of Americans”

And No, We’re Not Even Talking About The Vaccine.; support this writer; we must be vigilant for these beasts are trying it again on us! What occured was strategic attack on sovernighty and principles

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 5

READ IN APP

Unorthodoxy

How COVID-19 Protocols Killed Millions Of Americans

I just finished my podcast on menticide, and in that podcast, I ask the questions: How would we recognize menticide if we were under the propaganda from menticide? How could we see past the illusion versus the propaganda being told to us? Recommended Listening…

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Nobel Winner Warned of VAIDS Risks from mRNA Shots Drew Weissman, one of the winners of the 2023 Nobel Prize in Medicine, previously warned of the risks of vaccine-acquired immune deficiency syndrome (VAIDS) posed by mRNA shots.READ MORE

Peter Doocy Stumps Jean-Pierre with Simple Question: ‘If a Member of Congress Is Not Safe on Capital Streets, Who Is?’Fox News correspondent Peter Doocy grilled White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre over the out-of-control crime in Democrat-run cities.READ MORE

Nancy Pelosi Gets Evicted From Her Private Office In The Capitol By Interim House Speaker Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., was evicted from her private Capitol office by the new speaker pro-tempore. Pelosi had the perk from Kevin McCarthy but the interim Speaker was not having it. House Speaker pro-tempore Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., a close ally of McCarthy, gave the order to Pelosi to vacate her Capitol hideaway by Wednesday. This was his first …READ MORE

Jim Jordan Launches Bid for House Speaker Republican House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) has just entered the race for speaker of the House.READ MORE

Marjorie Taylor Greene Backs Trump as McCarthy’s Replacement: ‘Make Him Speaker, Then Elect Him President’Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has spoken out in support of President Donald Trump being nominated to replace Rep. Kevin McCarthy as House speaker.READ MORE

Pope Demands End to Public’s ‘Irresponsible Lifestyles’ to Fight ‘Climate Change’Pope Francis has called on Western governments to reign in the “irresponsible lifestyles” of the public, warning that the world is “collapsing” due to “climate change.”READ MORE

Kari Lake Officially Files to Run for U.S Senate in Arizona Kari Lake has officially filed the paperwork to run for the U.S. Senate in Arizona.READ MORE

Acting House Speaker Orders Pelosi to ‘Immediately Vacate’ Her Capitol Office Acting House Speaker Patrick McHenry (R-NC) has ordered Democrat Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to “immediately vacate” her office in the U.S. Capitol building.READ MORE

Trump ‘Open’ to Serving as House Speaker in Short Term President Donald Trump is reportedly “open” to serving as the interim House speaker after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was ousted from the position in a historic vote on Tuesday.READ MORE

Rep Troy Nehls: ‘I Nominate Donald J. Trump for Speaker of the House’After Kevin McCarthy made history by becoming the first Speaker of the House of Representatives to be removed from power, many thought he would try to run for the post again.READ MORE

DC’s Pro-BLM Democrat Mayor Complained of Lack of Police Just before Congressman’s Carjacking Just days before Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) was carjacked at gunpoint in the nation’s capital on Monday, Washington D.C.’s Democrat mayor complained about the lack of police in her city.READ MORE

Kevin McCarthy Removed as Speaker of the House of Representatives For the first time in U.S. history, a Speaker of the House of Representatives has been removed from power.READ MORE

NFL Star Tua Tagovailoa Praises God after Game, Credits Christian Faith for Motivation NFL star Tua Tagovailoa had credited his Christian faith for his success and praised God for keeping him “encouraged.”READ MORE

NEWS ADDICTS
‘Turbo Cancers’ Soar Among Young Vaxxed Americans The number of young, vaccinated Americans diagnosed with “turbo cancers” is soaring across the country.READ THE FULL REPORT Republican & ‘Entire Family’ Killed in Plane Crash after Demanding Investigation into mRNA Shots A Republican lawmaker and his “entire family” have been killed in a tragic plane crash in Utah.READ THE FULL REPORT Baltimore Police Report Active Shooting at Morgan State University, Multiple Victims The Baltimore Police Department has responded promptly to reports of an “active shooter situation” in the 1700 block of Argonne Drive, which is in close proximity to the university. Authorities launched an investigation following a report of gunfire near Morgan State University on Tuesday night. In a recent social media update, the police have urged everyone to seek shelter and …READ THE FULL REPORT Kevin McCarthy Announces ‘I Will Not Run for Speaker Again’Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) reportedly won’t seek re-election for the position after a vote to ‘vacate the chair’ was successful on Tuesday afternoon. “I will not run for Speaker again. I will have the conference pick somebody else,” he said. The Washington Post earlier reported that McCarthy would not be seeking re-election. “Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), after being removed …READ THE FULL REPORT WaPo: Kevin McCarthy Won’t Seek Re-Election for Speaker Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) reportedly won’t seek re-election for the position after a vote to ‘vacate the chair’ was successful on Tuesday afternoon. “I will not run for Speaker again. I will have the conference pick somebody else,” he said. The Washington Post earlier reported that McCarthy would not be seeking re-election. “Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), after being removed …READ THE FULL REPORT

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

This is a must read: state of affairs yesterday and today

(Mike Every)

“If Tuesday Was Market Chaos, Wednesday Was Chaos On A Trampoline On Drugs”

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 10:05 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

*Another* pause that doesn’t refresh

If Tuesday was market chaos, Wednesday was chaos on a trampoline on drugs.

The polite version is that weaker US labor market data (ADP employment +89K vs. 159K expected, and median pay up ‘only’ 5.9% y-o-y) saw the market reverse some of Tuesday’s bond sell-off and ‘pause’ to see what comes next. The ruder version is best summarized by the disturbing graphics in my 2023 outlook ‘The Pause That Doesn’t Refresh’ with its 1950’s-advert style ingredients: “INCLUDES: Geopolitics! Inflation! Policy errors! Recession! NO RATE CUTS!”, and its health warning: “This product does not contain: hopium, copium, asset-rich-income-poor, gold, crypto, or Petroyuan. Shake yourself well before use.”

To summarize, US 10-year yields started at 4.80%, pushed up to almost hit 4.90%, then, just as key bond metrics were finally flashing inflation concerns, and long before the ADP data, this move was reversed, and once we got the ADP data, yields closed lower on the day. Moreover, as we got a staggering 5% drop in oil prices(!) to boot, those yields ended at 4.72%, so a near 18bp intra-day round trip. At the short end of the US curve, 2-year yields went to over 5.17% and then dropped back to 5.05%. Further down the curve, supposedly above this fray, 30-year yields soared to over 5.01% and then collapsed to 4.86% within a few hours. Just to underline, this is the primus inter pares of global bond markets which everyone everywhere in the world has to look to for the cost of borrowing: and it’s trading like a penny stock.

If that doesn’t give you pause for thought, not refreshment, then there is something wrong with you, even if you think lower yields are ‘better’ than higher (i.e., you are a borrower not a saver, or you work in financial markets).

To emphasize my point, back to oil. This is still the lifeblood of the global economy, and again one perhaps dodgy data point from increasingly erratic US sources saw a staggering decline of $5 in one day. That, more than anything, is what brought down bond yields, not the ADP.

So what actually happened? First, I don’t know. Second, nobody knows. That’s how markets work. We can all write clever analytical notes after the fact, but given we can’t write them in advance of facts tells you something about just how good our methodologies actually are.

To my mind, what we just saw speaks to the fact that with current volatility, market liquidity may have been lower than normal; that bond positioning had switched to net short from net long; that we may have seen intervention from a central bank (and the list of potential offenders is short, and starts with ‘B’); and that this required immediate short covering. Then the data gave some cover to ‘reassess’ a position they had been so sure of hours earlier.

Yet the crash in oil speaks to broader market themes that get even less press because our methodologies are even worse at predicting them. On one hand, the fear of global recession, more reversal of market positioning after some had been calling for $150 oil. On the other, the Fed’s push-back against shadow banking, which wants low rates, and the global Eurodollar complex that dwarfs the US financial system, which wants low rates too; and the push-back against oil producers cutting supply, and a linked shadow-banking drift to collateralising their commodities as a global funding alternative to Eurodollars.

In short, all kinds of things started to break yesterday in a global financial architecture fit for breaking. Indeed, if just one number in a third-rate data series can push key bond yields down 18bp intraday and oil down 5%, imagine what a weak, or strong!, print in US payrolls or inflation might achieve. Or, starting today, what about weekly initial claims? And, given our increased headline sensitivity, what about 75,000 US healthcare workers going on strike, and the White House cancelling a further $9bn in student loan debt, so adding more marginal consumer demand?

The scale of the market volatility being seen already rivals some of the worst in recent years. The scale of the losses in ‘safe’ long bonds was, until yesterday, rivalling the worst in stocks during the dotcom bust. And the scale of the problems still ahead of us regardless of what we do now is so large that most refuse to try to grasp it.

If commodities go up, not down, 5% in a day, then bond yields can’t go down across the curve for long. Wait and see what oil producers do next. That means rates need to stay high for now.

If yields go back up again and rates stay higher for longer, the economic and market damage will be epochal: how can it not be with debt so high and so much asset-based nonsense after years of low-rates lunacy?

If yields fall further, and oil and other commodities in tandem, we are staring down the barrel of collapse in the real economy in an already-angry world that needs ammunition and nutrition, not larger digits on a screen for a lucky few, or more unaffordable housing for the many. Thinking there would be long-term sustainable upside for assets and financialization just because yields drop is wildly optimistic.

Either way we are likely to get more, and more overt, intervention in markets from worried governments and central banks, throwing extra volatility into the mix. Most are uninformed of the real scale of our problems; or are ideologues who think their cookie-cutter solutions will always work; or, in some cases, they grasp what is to come, and are desperate to kick the can down the road. Combining all three, US Treasury Secretary Yellen yesterday said ‘higher for longer’ isn’t a given, and that the drivers of low inflation, like demography, are still “alive and well” – except it’s people not being alive or well that has helped tighten labor markets so significantly.

Relatedly, her ‘oops, monetary-policy!’ slips are now so frequent it’s clear she thinks she’s still running the Fed as well as the Treasury: is that a bug or a feature? Indeed, if you think the White House and Fed are truly aligned, or other major governments and their central banks are, what colour is the sky in your world? Of course, this also implies vastly higher volatility ahead.

To summarize, we just had another ‘pause’, as lazy analysts will put it. And yet it still won’t refresh.

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0524 UP 0.018

USA/ YEN 148.85 DOWN .124 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2147 UP 0.0011

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3753 DOWN .0009 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 9 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED

Hang Seng CLOSED UP 18.03 PTS OR 0.10%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.50% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 18.03 PTS OR 0.10%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.50%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 548.48 PTS OR 1.80%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1822.20

silver:$21.11

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 106,36 DOWN 17 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.

THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.618% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.803% UP 0 AND 8//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.996 DOWN 6 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.886 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8725 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0546 UP 0.0039 or 39 basis points

USA/Japan: 148.45 DOWN 0.533 OR YEN UP 53 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2192 UP 0.0055 OR 55 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0032 OR 32 BASIS pts to 1.3713

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (XX) …XXX

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3056)

TURKISH LIRA: 27.56 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.803…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.715% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.889 UP 1 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.029 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 39.09 POINTS or 0.53%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 29.70 PTS OR 0.20%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 1.13 PTS OR 0.02%

Spain IBEX UP 54.80 PTS OR 0.60%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 55.20 PTS OR 0.20%

WTI Oil price 82.38 12: EST

Brent Oil: 84.23 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 100.41; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 83//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.8725 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.570 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0546 UP 0.0046 OR 456 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2192 UP .0055 or 55 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.570% DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .803%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.45 DOWN 0.533 //YEN UP 54 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3713 DOWN .0032 CDN dollar UP 32 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 82.38

Brent OIL: 84.23

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.714%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 4.887%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 5.029 %

USA dollar index: 106.10 DOWN 243 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.55 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 100.41 DOWN 0 AND 83/100 roubles

GOLD 1820.15

SILVER: 20.93

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 9.98 PTS OR 0.03%

NASDAQ DOWN 53,03 PTS OR 0.36%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.35 DOWN 0.23 PTS (1.24)%

GLD: $168.83 DOWN 0.31 OR 0.18%

SLV/ $19.25 DOWN 06 OR 0.31%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Stocks Erase Losses As Bonds Flatline, Oil Slumps Ahead Of Friday’s Jobs Report

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 04:06 PM

After a chaotic Tuesday and a Wednesday which Rabobank’s Michael Every said was “Chaos On A Trampoline On Drugs“, Thursday proved to be a rather calm day, in which 10Y rates did nothing for a welcome change after blowing out by almost 60 bps in the past two weeks, a move which the same Every said ahd made the world’s most liquid security trade like a penny stock…

… which in turn was due to the plunge in oil, because as Every once again explained, oil “is still the lifeblood of the global economy, and again one perhaps dodgy data point from increasingly erratic US sources saw a staggering decline of $5 in one day. That, more than anything, is what brought down bond yields, not the ADP.”

Indeed, looking at the component of the notional rate, Real rates were practically unchanged at the upper end of the range, while Breakevens tumbled, driven by the move in oil which they track tick for tick.

Going back to oil, the move in the past week has been an absolute clownshow, with WTI rising above $95 last Thursday only to plunge to $82 today, after crashing by more than 5% yesterday, the biggest one day move since last September’s mini-budget freakout.

What was behind the plunge in oil? Here there are two camps on Wall Street, those who UBS’ strategist Catherine Gordon, pretend they know the reason…

There are a few reasons I was hearing out there as to why oil has sold off so hard:

Demand feels very shaky right now: Wednesday’s Department of Energy data showed a large increase in US gasoline inventories and low implied demand. This, combined with recent weakness in refining margins, fueled demand concerns. This was on top of global broader market worries arising again around higher-for-longer global central bank policy;

Extended / crowded positioning in oil: CTA allocations to oil that have risen to the highest level since 2018, while a Reuters column yesterday said that fund managers were net sellers for the first time in four weeks across the six most important petroleum-linked contracts last week. However, managers still added a net 16 mn barrels of long positions to WTI, driven by depleting inventories in Cushing; and

Geopolitical concerns: Some folks were flagging a new report by Axios discussing a potential broad deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, including energy, possibly impacted sentiment too, even though such discussions had been reported earlier.

…. and then those who like Rabobank’s Michael Every admit they have no idea:

So what actually happened? First, I don’t know. Second, nobody knows. That’s how markets work. We can all write clever analytical notes after the fact, but given we can’t write them in advance of facts tells you something about just how good our methodologies actually are.

To my mind, what we just saw speaks to the fact that with current volatility, market liquidity may have been lower than normal; that bond positioning had switched to net short from net long; that we may have seen intervention from a central bank (and the list of potential offenders is short, and starts with ‘B’); and that this required immediate short covering. Then the data gave some cover to ‘reassess’ a position they had been so sure of hours earlier.

He’s correct, of course, because as Goldman’s Scott Rubner pointed out two days ago, “S&P 500 top book liquidity is currently $7.5M, or the ability to move risk quickly. This is a decline of -50% in the past 1 week, last week top of book was $15M.“

Meanwhile, now that systematic funds (mostly CTAs) are done selling (with risk parity funds today also quiet thanks to the end of the bond liquidation) and are actually looking to buy back once volatility eases…

… stocks managed to contain the recent rout, barely budging after yesterday’s reversal…

… in part thanks to a return of one key intraday supporter of risk: the 0DTE bid. Indeed, as shown below, despite some selling early in the session, 0DTE delta flow was bullish from the start, and helped stabilize and then push stocks higher for much of the session…

… even if the buying was anything but uniform with Energy and builders worst, while the bank index trading best despite an analysis by DB according to which banks stand to lose $140BN in unbooked losses in Q2.

There may be another reason why stocks barely budged today (spoos closed just barely in the red): tomorrow is payrolls day, and the day before the jobs report stocks usually avoid too much volatility. That said, unless we get a huge miss and drop tomorrow, it’s difficult to see how stocks will how the S&P will be able to rise 0.7% on Friday and undo what is set to be yet another weekly drop for stocks, the fifth in a row, and the longest such stretch since May 2022.

EARLY MORNING TRADING

TUCKER CARLSON..

The USA would not let Tucker Carlson interview Putin

(Galen/Tucker Carlson)

Contempt For Press Freedoms: US Officials Bar Tucker Carlson From Interviewing Putin

WEDNESDAY, OCT 04, 2023 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Ted Galen Carpenter via AntiWar.com,

Tucker Carlson reports that the U.S. government prevented him from interviewing Russian President Vladimir Putin. Carlson told the Swiss magazine Die Weltwoche that he had sought to arrange an interview with Putin, but U.S. officials blocked him.

“I tried to interview Vladimir Putin, but the U.S. government prevented me from doing so. Think about [the implications],” Carlson told the newspaper on September 24. Worse, according to Carlson, no one in the U.S. news media supported his right as a journalist to report on the Russian leader’s views regarding the Ukraine conflict.

Such obstructionism reflects a growing contempt on the part of officials in the United States and other supposedly liberal democratic countries for freedom of the press. It is merely the latest episode in a lengthening parade of restrictions, ranging from petty to truly alarming. The highest priority targets are critics who dare condemn or even dispute the accounts that Western leaders put forth regarding key foreign policy objectives

European Union governments have been even more brazen than Washington in their efforts to impede critics. Just days after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the EU banned the two most prominent Russian outlets, RT and Sputnik. The official rationale was that those organizations were Kremlin controlled and were disseminating “disinformation” regarding the war in Ukraine. EU officials even ordered the removal of RT and Sputnik material from search engines.

More than 300 million inhabitants of EU countries were thus deprived from accessing Russia’s views about the war or its causes. Conversely, EU authorities did not impose the slightest restrictions on the tsunami of propaganda coming out of Kyiv regarding the war. Such gross imbalance has been a transparent effort to rig public opinion on a major international issue.

U.S. officials have been somewhat more subtle in their efforts to squelch dissenting views, especially on Russia, but they have been bad enough. The FBI, the CIA, and other agencies have engaged in a two-front assault on freedom of the press. One method is to emulate the EU and take direct action against alternative news outlets and other dissenters. The other strategy, which has become increasingly pervasive over the past decade is to pressure or collude with social media platforms to harass, marginalize, or eliminate sources that Washington dislikes. Such censorship by proxy is both insidious and dangerous.

The FBI took a major step toward implementing the first approach in October 2017. FBI leaders created a new Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF) in the bureau’s Counterintelligence Division. The FBI subsequently considered any effort by states designated by the Department of Defense as major adversaries (Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea) to influence American public opinion as a threat to U.S. national security. Targets for suppression were not confined to publications and outlets that were indisputably under the control of one of those hostile powers.

However, censorship by proxy has become by far the U.S. national security state’s preferred method. The U.S. national security apparatus has even actively assisted Volodymr Zelensky’s Ukrainian regime to undermine the constitutional rights of Americans. CNN noted a worrisome revelations in a July 2023 report from the House Judiciary Committee. “The committee says SBU [Ukraine’s top security agency] sent the FBI lists of social media accounts that allegedly ‘spread Russian disinformation,’ and that the FBI then ‘routinely relayed these lists to the relevant social media platforms, which distributed the information internally to their employees in charge of content moderation and enforcement.’”

In other words, the FBI served as a willing conduit and facilitator for Kyiv’s overseas censorship efforts. Moreover, U.S. officials did not make even a minimal effort to vet Kyiv’s allegations before pressuring social media companies to shut down the accounts of targeted organizations and individuals.

Revelations from the so-called Twitter files, confirm the extent of such ideological collusion between federal agencies and social media companies. Among other unhealthy aspects was that the FBI had paid Twitter $3.4 million. In a so-called fact-check, USA Today conceded that “the FBI flagged Twitter accounts the agency believed violated Twitter’s terms of service. Second, another document shows the FBI paid Twitter $3.4 million for Twitter’s processing of information requests the FBI made through the Stored Communications Act.” However, “fact-checker” Molly Stelino concluded that the FBI was not using Twitter for censorship purposes, insisting that “the $3.4 million is unrelated to the FBI flagging accounts.” Such an argument deserves an award for gullibility.

The extent of the government’s collusion campaign was even more apparent because Yoel Roth, the Twitter executive in charge of content moderation and members of his staff met weekly with the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. It is a safe bet that those meetings were not to discuss the weather. Such meetings also cast even more doubt on the allegedly benign nature of the FBI’s $3.4 million payment to Twitter for processing “information requests.” Yet even Roth apparently balked at some of the FBI’s more far-reaching demands. Roth contended that the list of alleged Russian disinformation offenders even included “‘a few accounts of American and Canadian journalists (e.g. [Grayzone’s] Aaron Mate),’ and said that Twitter would focus on rule violations and inauthentic behavior (i.e., bots).”

One interaction between the FBI and Facebook was as alarming as the collusion with Twitter. The FBI worked to discredit the New York Post’s blockbuster story on Hunter Biden’s laptop. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg later reported that FBI officials had approached him with a warning that Russia was conducting a concerted disinformation campaign during the 2020 U.S. election cycle, just as the Kremlin did in 2016. It was hard to miss the government’s implication that the laptop probably was part of the latest disinformation effort, and that Facebook should take down posts or algorithmically throttle accounts contending that revelations contained in the files were genuine. Yet there was no evidence at the time or subsequently that the laptop involved Russian disinformation. The allegation further poisoned relations with Russia, though, as well as stifled debate on a crucial issue.

In an early September 2023 ruling, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals found that the Biden administration’s meetings with social media companies had violated the First Amendment. That is an encouraging development in the battle against censorship by proxy, but it is unlikely that agencies in the national security apparatus will abandon their efforts to curb dissent, especially on controversial issues related to Washington’s role in the world. Freedom of the press clearly is under siege even in supposedly liberal, democratic countries.

end

II USA DATA

Do not put much credence to this data point

(zerohedge)

Jobless Claims Hovers Near 2023 Lows Despite ADP Weakness

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 08:36 AM

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time remains at year-to-date lows at 207k last week (basically in line with the 205k the prior week). Un-adjusted initial claims declined to 172k, the lowest since Oct 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Ohio claims fell once again, back to a more normalized level as their massive fraud has now been ‘fixed’…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims remains well below the Maginot Line of 1.7mm Americans. (sliding to 1.664mm last week), also at year-to-date lows…

Source: Bloomberg

With regard to continuing claims, Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between the end of September and March.

Finally, one doe have to wonder just what world we are living in when ADP (and BLS) jobs data has been trending weaker over the last few months, and yet initial jobless claims has been trending not just stronger, but towards its strongest on record…

Source: Bloomberg

Which pill do you want to swallow?

“This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”

end

Airbnb, home prices, condominium prices fall badly

(zerohedge0

Something Popped: Google Searches For “Sell My Airbnb” Surge As Travel Downturn Worsens

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 03:40 PM

We told readers in late July, “Why AirBnB Owners Are About To Be Forced Property Sellers.” Then, one month later, in late August, we wrote “The AirBnB Bubble Popping Will Pop The Housing Bubble,” followed by “AirBnB Bubble Bursts: Investor Home Purchases Crash 45% In Biggest Drop Since 2008.”

Airbnb owners who snapped up homes in the last several years during the era of ‘free’ money are facing a downturn in the short-term rental market that started in the second half of 2022, with some Airbnb operators in cities facing 50% revenue declines, according to a recent note published by Reventure Consulting CEO Nick Gerli.

“I believe these losses will cause a wave of distressed selling from Airbnb operators in 2023 and 2024,” Gerli said.

Airbnb’s CEO recently warned of a “booking slowdown,” while airlines and retailers have warned of a consumer spending downturn. JPMorgan, Goldman, Bank of America, Barclays, and Citi have added more gloom as consumer credit card spending crashed in September.

Clearly, the Fed pinning interest rates at two-decade highs is leading to major economic cracks as a recessionary slowdown in travel demand emerges and crimps revenue for highly leveraged Airbnb operators, which depend on revenue streams to pay their mortgage payments.

Gerli said the revenue collapse is “most notable in the Southwest and Mountain West areas of the country, where Airbnb revenue per listing is down 40-50% YoY. With owners in cities such as Austin, Phoenix, Denver, and San Antonio taking the hardest hit.”

One X user posted, “The great Airbnb exit has begun.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1708586676015272293&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fsomething-popped-google-searches-sell-my-airbnb-surge-travel-bubble-downturn-worsens&sessionId=29f4ee60f542aede09f8073fb848ad6b71ed1a8d&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=7e31f10ca29dc%3A1696453545681&width=1920px

This X user gets it.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=true&id=1709262051116195858&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fsomething-popped-google-searches-sell-my-airbnb-surge-travel-bubble-downturn-worsens&sessionId=29f4ee60f542aede09f8073fb848ad6b71ed1a8d&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=7e31f10ca29dc%3A1696453545681&width=1920px

Sounds about right.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1709219134884774205&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fsomething-popped-google-searches-sell-my-airbnb-surge-travel-bubble-downturn-worsens&sessionId=29f4ee60f542aede09f8073fb848ad6b71ed1a8d&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=7e31f10ca29dc%3A1696453545681&width=1920px

… and what’s up with this Google Search “sell my Airbnb”?! point unless it’s a big family trip

So, is the panic just beginning?

end

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

a must read..

(Mish Shedlock)

How The Fed Destroyed The Housing Market And Created Inflation In Pictures

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 02:40 PM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The Fed erroneously does not consider rising home prices as inflation. Here’s the result in pictures.

Case-Shiller national and 10-city home prices vs CPI, Rent, and Owners’ Equivalent Rent

Chart Note

Case-Shiller measures repeat sales of the same home over time. This ensures an accurate comparison of room size, yard size, and amenities. The only drawback is the data lags a bit. The most current data is from July representing transactions in May and June.
OER stands for Owners’ Equivalent Rent. It’s the price of rent one would pay to rent one’s own house, unfurnished without utilities.

For 12 years, home prices, OER, Rent, and the overall CPI all rose together. That changed in 2000 with another trendline touch in 2012. Then it was off to the races as the Fed did round after round of QE, suppressing mortgage rates.

Case-Shiller Home Price vs Hourly Earnings, the CPI, and Rent

Case-Shiller national home prices vs CPI, Rent, and Average Hourly Earnings.

As with the previous chart, for 12 years, home prices, rent, the overall CPI and hourly earnings all rose together. That changed in 2000 with another trendline touch in 2012.

How Much Are Homes Overpriced?

If the 12-year trend of home prices rising with average hourly earnings stayed intact, the home price index would be 211, not 308.

From that we can calculate home prices are ((308-211) / 211) percent too high, roughly 46 percent too high. If you prefer, home prices would need to fall ((308-211) / 308), roughly 31 percent.

Alternatively, if home prices stagnate for years, wages may eventually catch up.

Case-Shiller Home Price 1988=$150,000

The same home that cost $150,000 in 1988 now costs $678,366. But wages have gone up too. And mortgage rates have had wild swings.

Mortgage Payment and Wage Adjusted Mortgage Payment

The Least Affordable Mortgages in History

Factoring in wage growth, home prices, and mortgage rates, homes are the most expensive ever.

It’s actually much worse than the chart indicates because property taxes and insurance are not factored into.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rate chart courtesy of Mortgage News Daily.

Through massive and totally unwarranted QE, foolishly hoping to create more inflation, the Fed suppressed interest rates to record lows and mortgage rates followed.

Anyone with an an existing mortgage could and did refinance at 3.00 percent or below.

This increased “affordability” and we now have two classes of people courtesy of the Fed: winners and losers (existing home owners who refinanced low and those who want to buy).

Mortgage Application at 30-Year Lows

Refinance Index courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

Please note Mortgage Application Volume Nears 30-Year Lows

“Mortgage rates continued to move higher last week as markets digested the recent upswing in Treasury yields. Rates for all mortgage products increased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing for the fourth consecutive week, up to and above 7.53 percent – the highest rate since 2000,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As a result, mortgage applications ground to a halt, dropping to the lowest level since 1996. The purchase market slowed to the lowest level of activity since 1995, as the rapid rise in rates pushed an increasing number of potential homebuyers out of the market. ARM loan applications picked up over the week and the ARM share increased to 8 percent, as some borrowers searched for ways to lower their payments.”

What About the Winners?

Good question. The winners refinanced at 3.0 percent or below. This put extra money in their pockets every month to spend.

And rising wages further stimulated ability of the winners to buy goods and services.

Thus the Fed is still paying for its asinine push to create inflation.

Meanwhile, the housing market is dead and will remain dead with mortgage rates approaching 8.00 percent.

What About Rent?

CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish.

That’s another good question. For 24 months or so, economists have been predicting an ease in rent inflations.

On September 13, I noted Consumer Price Inflation Jumps 0.6 Percent Led by Energy and Shelter

The price of gasoline rose 10.6 percent, rent another 0.5 percent, shelter, 0.3 percent, and new cars 0.3 percent leading the way for a 0.6 percent increase in the CPI in August.

The price of rent has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 25 straight months. Not to worry, Paul Krugman says this is lagging.

When Will Record Housing Units Under Construction Ease Rent Inflation?

On October 2, I asked When Will Record Housing Units Under Construction Ease Rent Inflation?

That’s really a trick question. For a better question, remove the lead “when” from the sentence.

The answer is: I don’t know, nor does anyone else, although people claim to be clairvoyant.

Housing Units Under Construction vs CPI Rent Year-Over-Year

Housing units from Census Department, Rent CPI from BLS, chart By Mish

I saw the theory that rent would collapse as soon as housing units get completed so many times that I almost started believing it myself.

However, the data shows no discernable correlation no matter how you shift the lead or lag times.

The chart looks totally random. So perhaps rent abate. Perhaps not. The data itself provides no reason to believe anything.

Regardless, please note the floor. Year-over-year rent has a floor of about 2 percent except in the Great Recession housing crash.

And these charts are not imputed Owner’s Equivalent Rent prices for which people pay no actual rent. These charts reflect rent of primary residence.

34 Percent are Screwed

Well, don’t worry. Only 34 percent of the nation rents, and besides, rent is lagging.

Sarcasm aside, the Fed blew huge asset bubbles and did not see that as inflation. Nor did the Fed see that three massive rounds of fiscal stimulus would cause inflation.

Real Income and Spending Billions of Chained Dollars

Note the three rounds of massive fiscal stimulus in the Covid pandemic. This triggered the most inflation since the 1970s. Economists debate how much “excess savings” still remains.

For discussion of excess savings, please see Excess Pandemic Savings, How Much is Still Unspent?

The Fed never saw this coming, never saw a housing bubble in 2007, and has never once predicted a recession.

Heck, former Fed chair Ben Bernanke denied a housing bubble and denied a severe recession that had already started.

Expect More Inflation Everywhere

Unfortunately, Biden is doing everything humanly possible to stoke inflation with EV mandates, natural gas mandates, union pandering, student debt forgiveness, and regulations, some of which is blatantly unconstitutional.

As a result, Fed Rate Interest Rate Hike Expectations Are Still Higher for Even Longer

Looking to Buy a Home?

If you are looking to buy your first home and need to finance, good luck.

The longer the Fed holds rates high, the longer the housing transaction crash lasts. But cutting rates will further expand the housing bubble, asset bubbles in general. And bubbles are destabilizing.

That is the Fed’s tightrope dilemma, of its own making.

If you are one of the winners, congrats. But that extra money the Fed put in your pocket every month may stoke inflation for a long time.

this is a must read and special thanks to G for sending this to us;

Yield Surge Will Send Banks’ Unrealized Losses $140 Billion Higher To A Record $700 Billion. With banks holding cumulative unrealized losses of $558.4bn in Q2, the estimated increase of around $140 billion would widen their unrealized losses to a new record, surpassing the previous peak of $689.9bn in Q3 2022

· No alternative text description for this image

José Alfonso de la Iglesia García

Mas de veinte años de experiencia en su mayoría como Director Financiero, así como en la gestión de inversiones y patrimonios, complementada con labores de integración en ámbitos internacionales.

11m

French Train Maker Alstom Shares Crash 38%, Bonds Tumble Most Ever, On Cash Flow Warning Shares of the French train maker Alstom crashed as much as 38%, and its bonds fell the most on record on Thursday, following the company’s disclosure of preliminary financial information indicating a significant decline in its free cash flow projections, attributed to rising inventories. The results showed Alstom’s free cash flow had plunged from -45 million euros to a whopping -1.15 billion euros. It now expects negative 500-750 million euros for the full year, compared with earlier forecasts that were “significantly positive.” FIRST-HALF RESULTS Alstom forecast negative free cash flow for the full year; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate. 2024 YEAR FORECAST Sees negative free cash flow EU500 million to EU750 million, estimate positive EU287.5 million (Bloomberg Consensus) Still sees adjusted Ebit margin about 6%, estimated 6.16% Alstom has the world’s most extensive portfolio of components for the rail sector. This news concerns Wall Street analysts who warn that a capital raise could be nearing. Deutsche Bank analyst Gael de-Bray told clients the warning is a “major blow” to top executives’ credibility. The analyst sees a capital increase that is “increasingly likely” due to the troubled $5.5 billion acquisition of Canadian manufacturer Bombardier. Shares of Alstom trading on the Paris Stock Exchange crashed 35%. Biggest one day crash in two decades.

o No alternative text description for this image

LikeComment

US dollar’s rally supercharged by soaring real yields on Treasuries Surging U.S. real yields are aiding the dollar’s rebound, rewarding bullish investors while making bears think twice before betting against the buck. The real yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries – which measure how much investors stand to make on U.S. government bonds after inflation is stripped out – hit 2.47% on Tuesday, the highest in nearly 15 years, according to data from the U.S. Treasury Department. That has made betting on the U.S. currency more profitable, since bullish investors can collect yield while sitting on their dollar positions. The dollar is up 7% from its 2023 lows against a basket of currencies and stands at a 10-month high. At the same time, climbing real yields make it more expensive to bet against the dollar. Bearish investors establishing short positions must pay more to borrow the currency. Dollar positioning in futures markets showed a net long of $3.07 billion for the week ended Sept. 26, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That was a sharp reversal from a short position of $21.28 billion earlier this year. “The dollar isn’t just the nicest house in a bad neighborhood right now, it’s the only game in town,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. With real yields pushing higher, “only the bravest of traders are willing to bet against the greenback,” he said. The Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer along with relatively strong U.S. economic growth has helped push nominal yields to their highest level since 2007. That, combined with a deceleration in inflation, has sent real yields soaring. Their surge has coalesced with other factors to fuel the dollar’s rebound. The greenback is up 3% against a basket of currencies this year. Other factors include a resilient economy that has made the U.S. a relatively more attractive investment, with growth steadier than floundering Europe and China. The dollar has also gotten a boost from investors nervous about Wall Street’s decline, with the S&P 500 down 7% from its July high. While U.S. rates have stayed high with growth resilient, “Europe and China have disappointed,” strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management wrote in a recent note. “The near-term risks are skewed toward additional US dollar strength, in our view.” The dollar has tracked real yields in recent years, with peaks and troughs closely aligned. That has made even bearish investors wary of betting against the U.S. currency. Aaron Hurd, senior portfolio manager at State Street Global Advisors, said the dollar is overvalued against a broad range of currencies, including the yen, whose sharp decline this year has put investors on the lookout for intervention from Japan’s policymakers. Still, high real yields make him hesitant to short the U.S. currency. “I am not going to pay away 5.5-6% a year in interest to short that,” Hurd said.

o No alternative text description for this image

What would Japanese intervention to boost the weak yen look like? Japan bought yen in September, its first foray in the market to boost its currency since 1998, after a Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy drove the yen as low as 145 per dollar. It intervened again in October after the yen plunged to a 32-year low of 151.94 WHAT HAPPENS FIRST? When Japanese authorities escalate their verbal warnings to say they “stand ready to act decisively” against speculative moves, that is a sign intervention may be imminent. Rate checking by the BOJ, when central bank officials call dealers and ask for buying or selling rates for the yen, is seen by traders as a possible precursor to intervention. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has recently said authorities “won’t rule out any options” to deal with excessive currency volatility, and that they were watching currency moves with a “strong sense of urgency.” LINE IN THE SAND? Authorities say they look at the speed of yen falls, rather than levels, and whether the moves are driven by speculators, to determine whether to step into the currency market. The dollar is already within striking distance of the 150-yen level seen by markets as authorities’ line in the sand. If that line breaks, many market players see 151.94 yen, where Japan last intervened, as the next threshold, then 155. WHAT’S THE TRIGGER? The decision is highly political. When public anger over the weak yen and a subsequent rise in the cost of living is high, that puts pressure on the administration to respond. This was the case when Tokyo intervened last year. But while inflation remains above the BOJ’s 2% target, public pressure has declined as fuel and global commodity prices have fallen from last year’s peaks. If the yen’s slide accelerates and draws the ire of media and public, the chance of intervention would rise again. The decision would not be easy. Intervention is costly and could easily fail, given that even a large burst of yen buying would pale next to the $7.5 trillion that change hands daily in the foreign exchange market. HOW WOULD IT WORK? When Japan intervenes to stem yen rises, the Ministry of Finance issues short-term bills, raising yen it then sells to weaken the Japanese currency. To support the yen, however, the authorities must tap Japan’s foreign reserves for dollars to sell for yen. In either case, the finance minister issues the order to intervene, and the BOJ executes the order as the ministry’s agent. CHALLENGES? Yen-buying intervention is more difficult than yen-selling. While Japan holds nearly $1.3 trillion in foreign reserves, which could be substantially eroded if Tokyo intervened heavily repeatedly, leavuing authorities constrained over how long they can defend the yen.

o No alternative text description for this image

America’s Poorest Only Own 6% Of Assets. The poorest 50 percent of Americans owned just 5.9 percent of the country’s total assets in Q2 of 2023, according to data from the U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. As Statista’s Ann Fleck shows in the following chart, the share of wealth as total assets remained at a low 5.9 percent through the first two quarters of this year, having seen a downtick from 6 percent at the end of 2022.

o No alternative text description for this image

Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY in Calm Waters for Now but Bullish Breakout Looms USD/JPY has displayed a strong bullish trend throughout 2023, surging by over 14% since January. This upward momentum has been driven by the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields on account of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance. Today, the pair remained relatively stable, hovering around the 149.00 handle, following a modest pullback on Tuesday, which traders speculated was due to possible FX intervention by the Japanese government. While Tokyo has neither affirmed nor refuted its involvement in bolstering the yen earlier in the week, it’s evident from the price action that any artificial intervention won’t significantly or durably change the currency’s devaluation trend. Overall, as long as the substantial gap in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan persists, the yen will maintain its bearish bias. This could mean further gains for USD/JPY in the coming weeks. ooking at the bigger picture, Tokyo has few options to counter U.S. dollar strength for now, with U.S. rates soaring to multi-year highs and Japanese yields capped by the BoJ. To illustrate the current disparity, the U.S. 10-year government note is currently trading above 4.7%, while the Japanese security with the same maturity remains stuck around 0.75%. This dynamic undoubtedly benefits the greenback. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY remains entrenched within an indisputable uptrend. That said, if the pair manages to hold above support at 148.80, the bulls may reload, setting the stage for a possible rally above 150.00, towards the upper boundary of an ascending medium-term channel at 151.25. On further strength, attention turns to 151.95. Conversely, in the event that the bears unexpectedly reestablish dominance over the market, initial support emerges at 148.80, as shown in the daily chart below. Moving lower, the focus squarely shifts to 147.25, with 146.00 emerging as the subsequent downside area of interest.

o No alternative text description for this image

21h

Recession Warning! Four Key Triggers Are All In-Play Right Now The Four Triggers An Inflation Spike (77%) — There’s no question that this trigger is in play. Price inflation soared to a four-decade high in the summer of 2022. While it has cooled in recent months, the CPI began creeping up again in July and continued to rise in August. Reid said the US economy “seems to have the most sensitivity to inflationary spikes.” Since 1854, a 3% rise in price inflation over a 24-month period caused a recession within three years 77% of the time. And while price inflation might be down, it isn’t out. During a recent podcast, Peter Schiff said, “It’s obvious to anybody who opens their eyes that inflation is not topped out and coming down. It’s bottom out and going up. And the people who are blind to this, who are asleep, they are in for a rude awakening.” An Inverted Yield Curve (74%) —Typically, longer-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds. A 10-year Treasury generally features a lower yield than a 30-year. This is because investors typically factor in more risk on a longer-term loan. When this flips and short-term bonds start yielding more than long-term bonds, it’s called a yield curve inversion. The US Treasury yield curve has been inverted since July 2022. Yield curve inversions have preceded a recession 74% of the time since 1854. If you consider a more modern period since 1953, the hit rate increases to 79.9%. A Rapid Rise in Interest Rates (69%) — To fight price inflation, the Federal Reserve has hiked rates by more than 5% in just 18 months. Since 1854, a 2.5% increase in short-term interest rates over a 24-month period led to a recession 69% of the time. As Reid put it, interest rate hikes haven’t ended well for the economy. That’s likely because the US economy runs on borrowing and spending. It can’t function for very long in a high interest rate environment. Schiff summed it up in another podcast. The economy is built on a foundation of cheap money. It’s not just the economy; it’s every facet of it. The government, the deficits, the government budget is built on cheap money. And it’s not just the federal government that’s been gorging on this cheap money. A lot of the state governments, municipalities — they’ve all issued a tremendous amount of debt over the last 15 years.” The last time rates were at this level was in 2006. We know how that ended. But there’s a big difference between then and now. There is even more debt in the economy. Consider that in 2006, the national debt pushed above $10 trillion for the first time. Today, it is more than three times that level. Oil Price Shock (45%) — The price of Brent crude has spiked by about 33% since June. This has thrown cold water on the “disinflation” narrative. When oil prices have spiked 25% over a 12-month period, the US economy has gone into a recession 45.9% of the time.

o No alternative text description for this image

22h

Exploding Mortgage Rates, Approaching 8%, Send Mortgage Demand To Lowest Since 1996. As we previewed yesterday, the BankRate average 30Y US mortgage this morning has spiked 8 basis points to the highest level in 23 years – one not seen August 25, 2000 – a mindblowing 7.88%, which is insane when one considers that three years ago the same mortgage was less than 3%. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 6% for the week and were 22% lower than the same week one year ago. And as purchases continued to sink, applications to refinance a home loan have absolutely imploded – for obvious reasons: there is nobody in the market that hasn’t managed to refinance at a lower rate in the past 23 years – and dropped another 7% for the week and were 11% lower than the same week one year ago. Refinances now make up less than one-third of all mortgage applications. According to CNBC, just two years ago, when rates were setting multiple record lows, refinance demand made up roughly three-quarters of all mortgage applications. “The purchase market slowed to the lowest level of activity since 1995, as the rapid rise in rates pushed an increasing number of potential homebuyers out of the market,” said Kan, who also noted that adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) applications increased. The ARMs made up 8% of purchase applications, up from 6.7% about a month ago, when interest rates were slightly lower. ARM’s offer lower rates but are fixed for a shorter term, usually five or 10 years.

o No alternative text description for this image

Bond buyers battered as Austria’s 100-year note shows danger of duration risk When Austria sold a fresh batch of 100-year bonds in the summer of 2020, the 0.85% coupon was deemed so juicy that Vienna received some EUR16 billion of orders. On Tuesday, the yield on that ‘century bond’ bond maturing in 2120 was flirting with 3%, its price having fallen below EUR33, according to Tradingview

o No alternative text description for this image

END

This is going to hurt GM badly a huge recall plus the UAW strike!

(zerohedge)

GM Tumbles On Report It Has “At Least” 20 Million Vehicles With Potentially Explosive Air-Bag Parts That May Be Recalled

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 12:28 PM

As if GM didn’t already have enough headaches between a crippling UAW strike, and playing catch up to Tesla in the EV war, moments ago it just got hammered again on a WSJ report the Detroit auto giant has at least 20 million vehicles built with a potentially dangerous air-bag part that the government says should be recalled before more people are hurt or killed.

According to the report, the number of affected GM vehicles (a figure which has not yet been disclosed publicly) makes GM among the most exposed in a push by U.S. auto-safety regulators to recall 52 million air-bag inflators designed by Tennessee-based auto supplier ARC Automotive.

As noted previously, these inflators have been known to explode with too much force during a vehicle crash, sending metal shrapnel flying and hitting occupants in the face and neck with shards. At least two people have been killed, and several others injured in such incidents.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has yet to release how many vehicles overall would be covered by a recall, or which specific models would be impacted. The number of GM cars and trucks with these inflators could be higher depending on how regulators proceed.

NHTSA is holding a public meeting Thursday on its determination that the air-bag parts are defective and should be recalled. In April, the regulatory agency sent a letter to ARC, demanding it recall the inflators, which are essentially mini-exploding devices designed to rapidly inflate the air-bag cushion in a collision.

Remarkably, ARC has refused the regulatory request, resulting in NHTSA having to take the unusual step of scheduling a hearing, which is necessary if it wants to formally order a recall. The company will make a brief statement at the meeting, a lawyer for ARC said.

The auto supplier has said extensive field tests show no defect and the air-bag ruptures that have occurred are few and isolated. Aside from GM, there are 11 other automakers that have the ARC air-bag inflators covered by NHTSA’s action, including Ford Motor, Volkswagen, Toyota Motor and Hyundai Motor.

For those who haven’t watched a certain iconic movies, here is an artist’s rendering of how NHTSA is conducting its recall cost-benefit analysis.

Some of the known air-bag explosions have occurred in GM vehicles with one resulting in a fatality and others in injuries. GM so far has done five recalls over a span of six years on vehicles that have the ARC-made air bags. The latest one was earlier this year, when it recalled nearly one million Chevrolet and Buick SUVs, after a Michigan woman was injured in a crash in March.

The problem with the inflators, made over an 18-year period starting in 2000, lies in a blockage that can develop in a vent that is designed to release stored gas, regulators say.

The clog can cause too much pressure to build up, leading it to explode when it activates during a crash, regulators say.

NHTSA estimates that one out of every 370,000 air bag inflators deployed in the future will rupture.

“This will happen again,” said Sharon Yukevich, a NHTSA investigator who has led the agency’s probe into the inflators, at the Thursday public hearing. “The timing is unpredictable, and any one of the approximately 52 million subject inflators is at risk.”

“A recall of the entire subject population will address this risk,” she said.

GM has said it continues to investigate the issue with these air-bag parts and is trying to develop a fix for those that have been recalled already. In the meantime, owners can keep driving the affected vehicles, and it will ship necessary replacement parts when a remedy is ready, the company said.

NHTSA began investigating these faulty inflators more than eight years ago, after one person was injured and another one killed by metal pieces flung into the cabin by air-bag explosions. The incidents were similar to those involving air bags made by Takata, the Japanese supplier that was at the center of a roughly 42-million vehicle recall campaign that began last decade.

The Takata recall has cost automakers billions of dollars in repairs and has been difficult to fully address, involving many older models that have changed hands several times. Honda Motor was among the most exposed in that recall effort, having to fix about 13 million vehicles in the U.S. It set aside nearly $5 billion to cover the recall costs over a two-year period.

Needless to say, a 20 million car recall would be among the U.S.’s largest in history, something which the market is not too happy about and GM stock is understandably sliding on the news.

end

This is going to hurt the USA economy badly: 75,000 Kaiser Permanente health workers to strike

(ABC)

More than 75,000 health care workers begin strike at Kaiser Permanente

“Tentative agreements,” but no full deal, had been reached Wednesday evening.

ByMary Kekatos, Marilyn Heck, and Jolie Lash

October 4, 2023, 10:33 PM

1:40

Over 75K healthcare workers go on strike

More than 75,000 workers at Kaiser Permanente launched a strike, with a coalition of unions alleging th…Read More

More than 75,000 workers at Kaiser Permanente launched a strike Wednesday, with a coalition of unions alleging the health care system is engaging in unfair labor practices.

Employees in Virginia and Washington, D.C., walked off the job at 6 a.m. ET while those in California, Colorado, Washington and Oregon began striking at 9 a.m. ET, beginning the largest health care workers strike in U.S. history, the unions say.

Those in mid-Atlantic states will be striking for one day while those in western states will be striking for three days.

MORE: More than 7,000 nurses go on strike across 2 New York City hospitals

The strike includes hundreds of positions, including nurses, emergency department technicians, pharmacists, optometrists, home health aides, medical assistants, dental assistants and more.

The Coalition of Kaiser Permanente Unions, which represents more than 85,000 workers, said Kaiser is experiencing a short-staffing crisis and that unsafe levels of staffing can result in long wait times, patient neglect and missed diagnoses.

Additionally, the Coalition said it’s advocating for better medical plans for retirees as well as protections against work that is outsourced and subcontracted.

PHOTO: Kaiser Permanente mental health workers and supporters march outside a Kaiser facility in Sacramento, Calif., Aug. 15, 2022. — Kaiser Permanente mental health workers and supporters march outside a Kaiser facility in Sacramento, Calif., Aug. 15, 2022.Rich Pedroncelli/AP, FILE

The Coalition and the nonprofit organization have been bargaining since April but were unable to reach an agreement before contracts expired on Sept. 30.

In a statement to ABC News Wednesday morning, Kaiser said bargaining was ongoing and some agreements had been reached.

“Both Kaiser Permanente management and Coalition union representatives are still at the bargaining table, having worked through the night in an effort to reach an agreement,” the statement read. “There has been a lot of progress, with agreements reached on several specific proposals late Tuesday.”

The statement continued, “We remain committed to reaching a new agreement that continues to provide our employees with market-leading wages, excellent benefits, generous retirement income plans, and valuable professional development opportunities.”

By the evening, Kaiser announced that talks hadn’t ended with a deal. The company said, though, in a statement that the two sides had reached some “tentative agreements” addressing union members’ concerns, including wage increases across the board, an update to the performance-sharing plan, $25 minimum wage in California and $23 outside of the state, enhancing health and retirement benefits, and renewing the company’s tuition assistance and training programs.

“We will coordinate with Coalition leaders to reconvene bargaining as soon as possible. We will work hard to reach an agreement so that together, we can all return to delivering on the mission of Kaiser Permanente for the benefit of our members, patients, employees, physicians, customers, and communities,” read the company’s statement Wednesday evening.

PHOTO: Kaiser Permanente healthcare workers rally outside Kaiser Permanente Los Angeles Medical Center in Los Angeles, Oct. 4, 2023. — Kaiser Permanente healthcare workers rally outside Kaiser Permanente Los Angeles Medical Center in Los Angeles, Oct. 4, 2023.Damian Dovarganes/AP

According to a statement from Caroline Lucas, spokesperson for the Coalition of Kaiser Permanente Unions, no new talks are scheduled.

“Frontline healthcare workers are awaiting a meaningful response from Kaiser executives regarding some of our key priorities including safe staffing, outsourcing protections for incumbent healthcare workers, and fair wages to reduce turnover. Healthcare workers within the coalition remain ready to meet at any time. Currently, the strike continues, and there are no sessions scheduled at this hour,” her statement read.

Kaiser had said throughout the strike, all of its hospitals and emergency departments will remain open and contract workers have been hired to backfill striking employees.

MORE: Worker strikes are surging. Strains of technology may be to blame in part.

The Kaiser strike comes amid several major labor actions in other sectors of the workforce. The United Auto Workers launched a strike on Sept. 15 against General Motors, Ford and Stellantis after failing to reach a contract agreement with the automakers.

Additionally, the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) is continuing its strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) which began on July 14.

The Writers Guild of America ended its strike against AMPTP last week after almost 150 days, securing better pay and regulations for the use of artificial intelligence in certain projects.ND

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE/

end

SWAMP STORIES.

A little late don’t you think?

(zerohedge)

“Too Freaking Late” – Mayorkas Finally Admits “Acute & Immediate Need” To Build Border Wall In Texas

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 11:54 AM

This is awkward…

In a stunning reversal of everything that was said over the last 7 years by the left, and just months after the Biden administration was caught selling portions of Trump’s border wall on a government surplus website, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is citing an “acute and immediate need” to waive dozens of federal laws in order to build a border wall in south Texas as the illegal immigration crisis grows utterly out of control.

“The Secretary of Homeland Security has determined, pursuant to law, that it is necessary to waive certain laws, regulations, and other legal requirements in order to ensure the expeditious construction of barriers and roads in the vicinity of the international land border in Starr County, Texas,” reads a notice posted to the U.S. Federal Registry that Fox News obtained.

In light of the surge in illegal immigration, Mayorkas found that there exists an “acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers and roads in the vicinity of the border of the United States in order to prevent unlawful entries into the United States in the project areas.”

No, this is not Babylon Bee.

As Ben Whedon reports at JustTheNews.com, The former president’s campaign team took Mayorkas’s decision as a vindication, telling Fox News that:”

“President Trump is always right. That’s why he built close to 500 miles of powerful new wall on the border and it would have been finished by now. Instead, Crooked Joe Biden turned our country into one giant sanctuary for dangerous criminal aliens.”

In total, Mayorkas plans to waive a total of 26 federal laws to expedite construction.

It’s going to fun to see the Democrats and their MSM lackeys squirm out of this one…

Does the Biden administration want to remind Latinos that they are not welcome?

Is the Biden administration building a monument to White Supremacy….

Is the Biden administration’s wall “xenophobic and racist”?

There are a million more examples…

These 3 words seem to sum things up perfectly “Too Freaking Late!”

…and cue the “we never said it was racist” or “it was racist because Trump wanted it” narrative spin incoming…

END

THE KING REPORT

The King Report for October 5 2023 – Issue 7090

Independent View of the News

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 89,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 5.9% – Small establishments +95k; Large establishments (500+ employees) -83k; Leisure & Hospitality +92k
https://adp-ri-nrip-static.adp.com/artifacts/us_ner/20231004/ADP_NATIONAL_EMPLOYMENT_REPORT_Press_Release_2023_09%20FINAL.pdf

The ADP Employment Change for September is 89k; 150k was consensus. USUs and ESZs rallied after the report was released at 8:15 ET. The rallies were transitory.

@zerohedge: “We do not place much weight on the ADP miss because of ADP’s negative correlation with BLS private payrolls since the introduction of the new methodology (-0.54, first-print basis)… We left our nonfarm payroll forecast unchanged at +200k ahead of Friday’s release.” – Goldman

ESZs traded sideways, but most negative, from the Nikkei opening until they broke down near 21:00 ET. ESZs made a daily low of 4235.50 at the 3:00 ET European Opening. ESZs hit a daily high of 4283.00 at 9:38 ET. Pump & dumpers then started to dump. ESZs sank to 4254.25 at 10:27 ET.

Traders played for the 2^nd Hour Reversal.   ESZs jumped to 4275.25 at 10:41 ET. After a brief bout of selling, ESZs resumed a rally that persisted until 12:32 ET; ESZs hit 4293.00. They then retreated to 4267.25 at 14:00 ET. ESZs inched higher until the rally accelerated when the final hour arrived.

ESZs hit 4304.00 at 15:37 ET. After a rollover to 4291.25 at 15:50 ET, ESZs inched up into the close.

USZs traded slightly positive but flat from the Nikkei opening until they broke down at 21:00 ET. USZs hit a low of 109 20/32 at 1:50 ET. They jumped to 110 23/32 at 4:13 ET and then traded sideways until they soared after the 7 ET opening of the US cash bond market.

USZs hit a daily high of 111 27/32 (+2 7/32 from the low) at 8:49 ET. After a drop to 110 27/32 at 10:30 ET, USZs rallied 11 25/32 at 12:50 ET. They then rolled over until another rally began at 14:15 ET.

Oil and oil stocks sank despite a 2.2m decline in oil inventories due to an Axios report that Team Biden has been secretly meeting with the Saudis. Operators believe Biden is trying to construct a deal that would include a Saudi oil production boost, which would aid and abet Biden for the 2024 Election.

Senior Biden advisers quietly visit Saudi Arabia to discuss mega-deal (Saudi-Israeli peace plan)
The Biden administration is pushing to get a mega-deal with Saudi Arabia and Israel before the 2024 presidential campaign consumes Biden’s agenda…
https://www.axios.com/2023/10/04/saudi-mega-deal-biden-israel-normalization-palestinian-talks

Gasoline sank on an EIA report that 4-week average US gasoline demand hit 8.3m barrels/day, its lowest SEASONAL demand since 1998. Sounds a bit fishy!

US Factory Orders jumped 1.2% m/m in August; 0.3% was expected. Ex-Transport Orders increased 1.4% m/m; 0.2% was consensus. The strong Factory Orders number for August is hard to reconcile with the soft PMI reports for August and August Durable Goods.

August Durable Goods are 0.1% m/m; 0.2% was expected. Ex-Transports Orders are the expected 0.4%.

@NvrBackDown24: Ron DeSantis on the out of control spending in DC: “You’ve got to get interest rates down. You’ve got to get inflation down. You do that by stopping spending at these levels, which are ridiculous.”   https://twitter.com/NvrBackDown24/status/1709602910231728427

Disney cutting children’s ticket prices at parks in bid to boost traffic https://trib.al/08xzPCf

Positive aspects of previous session.
Stocks and bonds finally had a rebound rally.
Oil sank 5%; gasoline tumbled 6.73%.

Negative aspects of previous session
The rally action in both bonds and stocks was listless

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
When will the entities with severe financial damage be exposed?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4250.91
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4268.50; 4220.48

McCarthy said Pelosi told him that she would back him if the motion to vacate appeared. This is why acting Speaker McHenry ordered Pelosi to evacuate her side office. Why would McCarthy trust Pelosi?

Newsweek: Exclusive: The FBI Targets Trump Followers as the 2024 Election Nears
“The FBI is in an almost impossible position,” says a current FBI official, who requested anonymity to discuss highly sensitive internal matters. The official said that the FBI is intent on stopping domestic terrorism and any repeat of the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. But the Bureau must also preserve the Constitutional right of all Americans to campaign, speak freely and protest the government. By focusing on former president Trump and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters, the official said, the Bureau runs the risk of provoking the very anti-government activists that the terrorism agencies hope to counter…
https://www.newsweek.com/2023/10/13/exclusive-fbi-targets-trump-followers-2024-election-nears-1831836.html

75,000 Kaiser Permanente Workers Go On Strike in Largest Health Care Labor Action in US History https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/75000-kaiser-permanente-workers-go-strike-largest-health-care-labor-action-us-history

@WallStreetSilv: This guy walking around Costco shares examples of food inflation that are WAY higher than the numbers reported for food inflation by the government.  Overall, many people know intuitively that food inflation is way higher than the official number of 4.3% from August 2022 thru August 2023. This video shows some of the examples he is seeing.
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1709600614131380230

Today – The rebound for bonds and stocks that we thought was probable occurred. The S&P 500 Index’s 200-DMA was successfully defended, a dynamic that occurs regularly after first-time threats. Traders will try to expand the rallies today. However, afternoon trading could be subdued as traders go inert ahead of the September Employment Report release on Friday.

ESZs are -8.25 and USZs are -1/32, at 20:40 ET.

Expected economic data: August Trade Balance -$59.8B; Initial Jobless Claims 210k, Continuing Claims 1.671m; Cleveland Fed Pres & Hawk Mester 9 ET; Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 10:40 ET, Richmond Fed Pres Barkin on Economic Outlook 11:30 ET, SF Fed Pres Daly at Economic Club of NY 12:00 ET, Fed VCEO of Supervision Barr on Banking System Cyber Risk 12:15 ET

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4435; 100-day MA: 4390; 150-day MA: 4278; 200-day MA: 4204
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,600; 100-day MA: 34,267; 150-day MA: 33,894; 200-day MA: 33,799
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4523.92 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4330.39 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4266.67 triggers a buy signal

Days after Joe Biden became president, his DOJ sought briefing on Hunter criminal case, memos show – The request for a roundup of Hunter Biden-related cases alarmed agents because some attendees from DOJ — including Biden political appointees — had no authority in the case. That puts Merrick Garland’s insistence of “no DOJ interference” into serious doubt.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/new-biden-administration-doj-officials-requested-briefings-hunter

GOP @RepMattGaetz: Joe Biden nominated Hampton Dellinger, a former colleague and law partner of Hunter Biden, to lead the United States Office of Special Counsel (OSC) yesterday, a top federal watchdog tasked with protecting our nation’s civil servants from political targeting. While Joe Biden tries to convince America that there was zero influence between him and Hunter’s business deals, he appoints a close friend of Hunter to protect the Biden Crime Family from accountability.
    As both the House and Senate have called on the OSC to investigate the Biden administration’s retaliation against IRS whistleblowers, who have accused AG Garland and DOJ of burying probes into Hunter Biden’s alleged crimes, Dellinger should withdraw his nomination.
    If confirmed by the Senate, Dellinger’s appointment would send a chilling message to civil servants everywhere: you are not protected, and you will continue to be targeted by the Bidens if you look into the real crimes committed by the President’s family.

President Biden Announces Hampton Dellinger as Nominee for Special Counsel, Office of the Special Counsel     https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/03/president-biden-announces-hampton-dellinger-as-nominee-for-special-counsel-office-of-the-special-counsel/

President Joe Biden’s German Shepherd Commander is seen biting White House staffer, days before it bit Secret Service agent, in new photos
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12589937/Joe-Bidens-dog-Commander-bites-staffer-Dale-Haney.html

So, Team Biden lied when it said Commander only bites mean Secret Service Agents.

Top trainer sees Biden’s dog’s 11 biting incidents as extreme case: ‘This dog needs help’
‘I have never heard of a dog have more than seven bites and still be alive,’ Davis told Fox News
    “And to have a dog that doesn’t really have direction and leadership in those environments can really quickly escalate into protection and to fear and to protection in general like of the house,” Davis told…
    “I’m not familiar with what with the laws in D.C., but I used to be an animal control officer, and I know here in New York, any time your dog bit somebody where they needed medical attention, the dog had to be quarantined, it had to be documented, and it typically had to go to some sort of judicial hearing just to see if the dog is dangerous, to see if the dog will do it again,” he added…
https://www.foxnews.com/media/top-trainer-sees-bidens-dogs-11-biting-incidents-extreme-case-dog-needs-help

Ukraine is ‘freaking out’ as McCarthy chaos threatens US aid
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-mccarthy-united-states-speaker-war-russia-invasion-weapons-ammunition/
    @seanmdav: This explains much of the meltdown yesterday and today from people who have no real reason to be so emotional about who happens to be Speaker at any given moment.

RNCResearch: Chicago residents are furious at how the Democrat-run city is handling a crisis of illegal immigration: “You wanna take the little scraps, the resources that we have, and put us at the bottom of the barrel?” “You work for US!” “You are selling us out!”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1709603659967762913

Thanks to Biden’s Open Borders, in Dem Cities it’s Black vs. Brown
The last time the black vs. brown tension was this thick, you could cut a chunk and fry it as the Black Lives Matter riots were tearing Chicago into pieces. Black protesters led by media-protected white leftists tore up downtown to hurt Donald Trump’s re-election prospects. This was their insurrection. It took lives and cost billions of dollars in damages in cities across America. They tore up the downtowns and black neighborhoods and black-owned businesses…
    In Chicago, the BLM rioters and their white Democrat Socialist handlers did not tear up the old and iconic Latino neighborhoods on 18th and 26th street. Why is that? Because Latino street gangs publicly threatened to shoot Black Lives Matter rioters if they were found in the Hispanic neighborhoods…
    But now? The tension if not the physical damages are high, with longtime black residents told to step off the corner, to step back and give their place in line to illegal Latin immigrants who are being courted as new prospective voters by Biden Democrats. Black voters have been betrayed…
    But the millions of illegal and legal Latino migrants that Biden welcomed and encouraged just keep coming… They will demand social services. If they don’t get what they want they will become angry. They will take what they want…
https://johnkassnews.com/thanks-to-bidens-open-borders-fiasco-in-the-democrat-cities-its-black-v-brown/

Dem-led cities under scrutiny after shocking random attacks: ‘It is in city after city’ https://t.co/jUIwGjkHXS

DeSantis blasts Biden over report child was raped in home housing 11 illegal immigrants: ‘No excuses’ – Multiple young girls were reportedly tied up in the Minnesota home
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/desantis-blasts-biden-report-child-raped-home-housing-11-illegal-immigrants-no-excuses

Ex-chief of staff John Kelly confirms stories about Trump hating on veterans, POWs https://t.co/OM3ceVguNR

Why did Trump hire a life-long (Boston) Democrat like Kelly to such an important position?

NBC 5 Investigates uncovers record number of requests to challenge books in Chicago-area schools, libraries (Even big-blue Chicago parents are getting fed up!)
https://www.nbcchicago.com/investigations/nbc-5-investigates-uncovers-record-number-of-requests-to-challenge-books-in-chicago-area-schools-libraries/3241989/

Thieves strip shelves bare at CVS outlet in Washington D.C. https://trib.al/1MIbGAq

Swiss writer who called journalist ‘fat lesbian’ sentenced to 60 days in prison, LGBTQ groups applaud decision
https://www.foxnews.com/world/swiss-writer-called-journalist-fat-lesbian-sentenced-60-days-prison-lgbtq-groups-applaud-decision

GREG HUNTER

see you on THURSDAY