Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price

USD oz AM2014.57

PM1985.03

Historical SGE Fix

premium $122,00

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Bitcoin morning price:, 27,753 UP 221 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $27,993 UP 461 dollars

Platinum price closing $882,50 UP $21,75

Palladium price; $1178.90 UP $9.80

END

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Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,500.00 UP 5.40 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1495.00 UP 1.30 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1728.03 UP 4.40 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,818.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/04/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 10/06/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

323 C HSBC 139
323 H HSBC 2
357 C WEDBUSH 4
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 7
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 134 7

TOTAL: 148 148
MONTH TO DATE: 8,735

JPMorgan stopped 0/320 contracts.

FOR OCT.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 320 NOTICES FOR 32,000 OZ or .9953 TONNES

total notices so far: 9055 contracts for 905,500 oz (28.164 tonnes)

FOR OCT:

SILVER NOTICES:118 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 590,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 452 for 2,260,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $13.05

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 69 CENTS AT THE SLV// A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 451.127 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY HUMONGOUS SIZED 2729 CONTRACTS TO 128,007 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.08 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A GOOD SIZED 400 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 400 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.08). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A MEGA- GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 3528 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 799 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 640,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 200 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.0 MILLION OZ: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 2.0 MILLION OZ //NEW STANDING 2.340 MILLION OZ + 2.0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 4.340 MILLION OZ/////HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 400 CONTRACTS)/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -59 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 5 days, total 10,321 contracts: OR 51.605 MILLION OZ (2064 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 51.605 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 51.605 MILLION OZ (THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE//AND MOST LIKELY WILL SET A NEW RECORD AT MONTHS END)

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2729 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.08 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 799 ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. THIS IS THE 5TH DAY IN A ROW FOR HUGE E.F.P. ISSUANCES. OUR LONG BANKERS ARE SERVING THE SHORT SPECS WITH NOTICES TO DELIVER PHYSICAL SILVER. THEY ONLY WAY THAT THEY CAN OBTAIN HUGE QUANTITIES OF SILVER IS THROUGH THE PURCHASE OF SILVER CONTRACTS AND IMMEDIATELY TRANSFER THESE CONTRACTS OVER TO LONDON FOR DELIVERY ON A T+ 2 BASIS. WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 640,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP:NEW TOTAL STANDING 2.340 MILLION OZ + A NEW ISSUANCE OF 200 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2.0 MILLLION OZ. THUS NEW TOTAL OF SILVER STANDING: 4.340 MILLION OZ// /// WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 3528 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GOOD SIZED 400 CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (400) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .

WE HAD 118 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 590,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1475 CONTRACTS TO 432,849 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: + ADDED 242 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1475 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $1.35 LOSS IN PRICE//THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 31,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP/NEW STANDING 28.753 TONNES/ + /A STRONG (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 949 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $1.35 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8281 OI CONTRACTS (25.76 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 6806 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 432,849

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8281 CONTRACTS WITH 1475 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A VERY STRONG SIZED 6806 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8281 CONTRACTS OR 25.76 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 949 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6806 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1478) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8281 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 31,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 28.753 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION BUT CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) VERY STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 400 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 26,206 CONTRACTS OR 2,620,600 OZ OR 81.51 TONNES IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5241 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 81.51 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 81.51/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.30% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 81.51 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A HUGE E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2729 CONTRACTS OI TO 128,007 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE A HUGE 799 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 799 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 799 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2788 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 799 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3528 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 17.64 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE $0.08 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 272.11 PTS OR 1.58% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 80.69 PTS OR 0.26% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.36 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.3081 /Oil DOWN TO 81.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 83.94 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1475 CONTRACTS TO 432,849 DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.35 ON THURSDAY.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 6806 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 6806 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6806 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 8281 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6806 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1475 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.35//THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 949 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (28.753) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT. 28.753 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $1.35) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 8281 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF THURSDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 25.76 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 31,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTALS STANDING:28.753 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.35. FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE BANKERS PULL THE PLUG ON OUR SPECS.

WE HAD + ADDED 242 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8281 CONTRACTS OR 828,100 OZ OR 25.76 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 230,561 fair

final gold volumes/yesterday 184,367 poor/

//speculators have left the gold arena

//OCT 6/ /// THE OCT. 2023 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	36,973.650 oz OZ Brinks 1150 kilobars .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	320 notice(s) 32000 OZ .9953 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	189 contracts 18900 oz 0.5878 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	9055 notices 905,500 OZ 28.164 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

customer deposits: 0

total customer deposits: 0 oz

we had 1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Brinks: 36,973.650 oz (1150 kilobars)

total withdrawals 36,973.650 oz

Adjustments; 1 dealer to customer

i)Brinks 86,494.547 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 509 contracts having GAINED 169 contracts. We had 148 contracts filed on Thursday, so we gained 317 contracts or an additional 31700 oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. Somebody, for the 5th day in a row, was in urgent need of a huge supply of physical gold over here. Also please note the large EFP issuances for the comex gold contracts. Our speculators have been met with physical delivery notices by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis.

NOV GAINED 113 CONTRACTS to stand at 1315

December LOST 922 contracts down to 368,064 contracts.

We had 320 contracts filed for today representing 32,000 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 130 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 320 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9055 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (509 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 320 x 100 oz per contract equals 924,400 OZ OR 28.753 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT. contract month: No of notices filed so far (9055) x 100 oz + (509) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (320) x 100 oz) which equals 924,400 oz standing OR 28.793 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 28.793 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,023,223.140 OZ 62.93 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 20,749,855.420 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,104,333.236 (314.287 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,645,522.184 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,081,110 (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 251.356 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 6

//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	158,936.760 oz Brinks CNT .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	488,355.830 oz CNT Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)	118 CONTRACT(S) (590,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	16 contracts (80,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	452 Contracts (2,260,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: 0

total: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 2 deposits customer account:

i) Into CNT: 484,365.830 oz

ii) Into Loomis 3990.000 oz

total customer deposit 488,355.830oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.236 million oz/273.555 million or 48.81%

Comex withdrawals 2

i) Out of Brinks 148,926.590 oz

ii)out of Delaware 10,010.170 oz

total: 158,936.760 oz

adjustments: 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.638 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 273.555 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 134 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 94 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 34 NOTICES FILED

ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED A WHOPPING 128 CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A QUEUE JUMP OF 640,000 OZ

NOVEMBER LOST 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 471

DEC. GAINED 528 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 108,937 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 118 for 590,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 83,848 //strong

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 62,993 fair//

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 452 x 5,000 oz = 2,260,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (134) and the number of notices served upon today 118 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 452 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (134) – number of notices served upon today (118 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 2.340 million oz + 2.0 MILLION oz of exchange for risk//new totals: 4.340 million oz.

There are 37.638 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES

OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 867.58 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ

OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 451.127 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

Jeftovic: Canada’s Multi-Generational Gold Gaffe

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 02:05 PM

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via DollarCollapse.com,

Successive BoC Governors & PMs Have Compounded Failure and Spurned Opportunity

After looking poised to rack up fresh all-time-highs (in USD terms) earlier this year, the gold price has experienced somewhat of a dump lately. It’s possible the market believes the likes of Paul Krugman – who is taking victory laps for taming inflation (he calls it a win for “Team long transitory”, whatever that‘s supposed to mean).

However you wouldn’t know that from watching the rate at which central banks around the world are hoovering up the yellow metal, setting a fresh record over the first half of 2023 at over 200 tonnes.

Which banks are backing up the truck?

Not many surprises there, (except maybe the ECB) and the Q2 net numbers were dampened because Turkey – who has been in a slow motion firefight with high inflation for over twenty years had to sell off a boatload to support the Lira. The takeaway from that is they had gold reserves to support their financial system.

Fourth largest gold producer in the world.

Of the top gold producing nations in the world, Canada is number four.

Via World Gold Council

Canada stands out contrary to all the other top gold producing nations, as it is the only top ten producers where the central bank’s FX reserves holds no gold. Zero, nada.

Even Ghana, the sixth top producing nation, whose national GDP is about the same size as Oakville, Ontario has 8 tonnes of gold squirrelled away.

After steadily selling down its gold reserves since the 60’s…

Via Ceicdata

Justin Trudeau’s first finance minister, Bill Morneau, emptied out Canada’s remaining gold reserves in 2016, pretty well bottom-ticking the gold bear market that started in 2011.

His predecessor, Mark Carney – who was appointed by Stephen Harper made an oblique “barbarous relic” comment in 2010 – channeling, as many central bankers and Nobel Laureates do, John Maynard Keynes’s famous quip from 1924.

Few, if any of them realize that Keynes underwent three distinct phases over his investment career and he made that pronouncement during the middle phase, and later changed course. At the time of his death he had fully 2/3 of his net worth invested in South African gold miners (fewer still, understand that Keynes was a Fabian Socialist and that his economic prescriptions, if implemented, would inexorably lead to communism).

It’s not just gold that Canadian policymakers hate

Canada is sitting on the third largest oil reserves in the world (after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela). Instead of maximizing the opportunity of becoming an energy powerhouse, one based in a politically stable, democratic jurisdiction; Ottawa has instead embarked on an ideological crusade against the oil and gas industry, framing it as the antagonist in some mythological, shared psychosis of climate alarmism.

It has left Albertans feeling so demonized by Ottawa’s insular political class, that the idea of #Wexit, which wasn’t even a thing prior to the election of Justin Trudeau, is practically baked-in now. Especially if the Liberals squeak out another election win (that’s doubtful, but if they do, Alberta is out).

In late 2022, German chancellor Olaf Scholz made a rare foreign trip, coming to Canada practically begging us to sell his country natural gas, given that their primary supplier, was Russia. Trudeau told him to suck it, and offered him sell him unicorn farts instead (hydrogen, ten years out).

Germany went on to sign a 15 year deal for natgas with Qatar.

Not long after that, Trudeau told the same thing to Japan. They ended up entering into a long term deal with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).

In other words, Canada is divesting out of hard assets, trying to kill its energy sector, while going long wokery and even collectivism.

The Era of Woke Capitalism is Over

This is something I’ve been covering in The Bitcoin Capitalist for over a year (and Why Wokeness is Doomed, here):

The era of Woke capitalism is over. The entire ESG “model” can only work within the heady exuberance of an Everything Bubble, and the Everything Bubble ended along with a 40 year bull market for bonds and the end of cheap capital.

Reality is now reasserting itself, and all that woke crap is finished. In some places faster, and some places (like Canada), more slowly. But it’s done.

While other central banks around the world are have been sensing a tectonic shift in the global financial system and loading up on gold (namely, de-dollarization within a multi-polar monetary world), Canada is completely wrong footed and in denial about it.

We’re busy honouring literal Nazis, launching grocery store price monitoring bureaus, and generally looking like retards.

We expect this to worse before it gets better. Even if the central banks of the world do pivot and reignite the printing presses (and they probably will), it will no longer be a heady, feel-good sequel to the Everything Bubble, and it will not bring about an era of Fully Automated Luxury Communism (a.k.a MMT). Instead, it will be a hyper-stagflationary currency war against the backdrop of a rapidly shifting global financial system – and those central banks holding the gold will be the ones setting the rules in the post-post-Bretton Woods Era.

END

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Costco Is Selling Out Of Gold Bars. The Economic Crisis Can No Longer Be Hidden…

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 03:45 PM

Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

These days, at Costco, it seems like you can get whatever you need for the Zombie Apocalypse. A savvy shopper can purchase anything from a massive bulk pack of toilet paper they can barely fit into the trunk of their car to solid gold bars.

I’ve long written about the importance of putting some of your savings into precious metals, and for ages, it seems to have been a secret kept close to the vest in prepping circles and for the extremely wealthy. But now, even Costco has caught the gold bug, and shoppers are responding fast, leaving the bars sold out within hours of being listed.

In a quarterly earnings call last week, Costco chief financial officer Richard Galanti told investors that the bars have been flying off the shelves, reported CNBC, saying, “I’ve gotten a couple of calls that people have seen online that we’ve been selling 1 ounce gold bars. Yes, but when we load them on the site, they’re typically gone within a few hours, and we limit two per member.”

And it certainly makes sense to buy gold (or silver) because the banking system is so volatile it really cannot be trusted. I don’t believe for a second that our system as it is right now will last much longer. Sure, there’ll be a new system to replace it, but you can darn well bet that WE will not be the ones who benefit from it. In fact, I strongly suspect that the new system will be CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) and all the surveillance and control those entail.

Why are so many people buying gold?

According to the experts, it’s all about a feeling of uncertainty. And given the abnormal circumstances the United States finds itself in, that’s the most normal response in the world.

Jonathan Rose, CEO of precious metal broker Genesis Gold Group, says that recent bank failures, inflation and individuals’ concerns about the U.S. dollar, for example, can cause some to start looking for alternative places to park their money.

“If someone’s going out to buy gold, that means they think that there’s some type of instability at the structural level of the market and/or the government itself,” added David Wagner III, head of markets and equities at Aptus Capital Advisors.

Not all advisors love the idea of investing in metals. First of all, the value is something that can change rapidly. When you buy gold or silver, you should go into it knowing this fact.

But this can actually be to your benefit. According to USA Today:

The value of precious metals has been on the up and up for the past five years, with gold rising from roughly $1,200 an ounce in 2019 to $1,825 as of Tuesday, according to CNBC market exchange data. It spiked at $2,026 an ounce in April of this year.

So if you bought gold five years ago, you made a heck of an investment.

Of course, the value can also go down and that’s why you should never invest more in gold and silver than you can afford to hold onto. The price will eventually go back up.

Buy now before the price goes up again.

Of course, that does depend on making your purchases before gold reaches a peak price. You want to get your metals before the price skyrockets.

And luckily, you don’t have to wait for it to be back in stock at Costco. You can hit up my friends at ITM Trading and schedule a free strategy session to see if this is a layer of financial preparedness you wish to add to your current plan. Then you’re able to ask questions of professionals who have your best interests at heart. Education is a huge part of what they do, so I definitely advise taking advantage of a free, no-obligation call.

What causes the price of gold and silver to go up? Basically, everything happening in the world right now. A huge part of the value of gold is psychological expectations and fears about the economy. But more practically, Money.com lists the following as reasons you can see this safe haven explode in value:

The current value of the US Dollar
A demand for gold
A demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
Demand for industrial applications
Interest rates
Geopolitical factors
The cost of gold production

Gold is also more highly sought during times of inflation as people look for a way to maintain the value of their savings. According to the same article, gold is considered to be the epitome of a safe-haven investment because when everything else goes down, gold goes up.

A safe-haven investment is an investment that has no correlation or a negative correlation with other markets. For example, gold is often seen as a safe haven because it tends to move in opposition to stocks and bonds, thereby serving as a hedge against losses in those asset classes.

So if you are expecting bad economic times ahead, the sooner you invest in gold, the lower the current price will be, and the better off you will be in the long run.

When should you NOT buy gold?

If you aren’t prepped with physical items, gold may not be the right investment for you. Precious metals aren’t really something to use during the SHTF. They’re something to hold onto throughout it so that when eventually, society reemerges, you have something of value for starting over, paying for repairs or taxes, and not being totally without assets.

As I’ve written before, you should layer your financial preparedness with:

A financial foundation: This is simply the act of good financial common sense: paying off debt, having an emergency fund, and controlling your budget.
Tangible essentials: This is where prepping comes into play – the next layer is having essential supplies like food and other preps, learning skills, buying tools, taking care of medical and dental problems
Financial assets: Only after you have the first two layers in place should you tackle the bigger picture. If you’re in good shape, this may be the time to purchase things like precious metals. This is not money to spend – it’s a unit of storage for the wealth you have accumulated, whatever that may be.

If you don’t have the first two layers in place, it’s fine to make some small precious metals purchases, but you save the large investments for later, once you have these things under control.

The debt bubble is bursting.

People are barely holding on financially. In the first half of this year, consumer bankruptcies were up 17% over the year before. Total household debt has reached a dizzying $17.06 trillion, and credit card debt is a trillion of that. Delinquencies and defaults are also climbing. Why?

“The increase in delinquencies and defaults is symptomatic of the tough decisions that these households are having to make right now — whether to pay their credit card bills, their rent or buy groceries,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

If it’s a choice between a credit card payment and your child going hungry, what would you do? I would buy the groceries, too. And also, I believe part of the reason that debt is so sky high is that people have been using credit cards to pay for essentials like gas and groceries because as rents, inflation, and interest rates keep moving into the stratosphere, there’s just no money left.

I hate to sound depressing, but our economic future does not look good.

Whatever your plan is to protect yourself financially, you need to stop waiting and enact it. Every day you wait, you’ll get less future bang for your current-day buck.

* * *

Daisy Luther is a coffee-swigging, adventure-seeking, globe-trotting blogger, and best-selling author of 5 traditionally published books, 12 self-published books, and runs a small digital publishing company with PDF guides, printables, and courses at SelfRelianceand Survival.com You can find her on Facebook, Pinterest, Gab, MeWe, Parler, Instagram, and Twitter.

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4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT no 143

https://kinesis.money/live-from-the-vault

EPISODE 143

1.4 billion people about to create global gold shortageEpisode 143

Posted 6th Oct 2023

1.4 billion people about to create global gold shortage

In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire delves into the major drivers of gold in the world today: Russian oil trading and the Chinese push for all 1.4 billion citizens to regularly purchase gold through the People’s Bank of China.

The precious metals expert uncovers the impending supply demand imbalance, explaining how soon one third of global gold resources could quickly be consumed by even a small percentage of Chinese citizens purchasing a gram each month.

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:ORANGE JUICE

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.3081

SHANGHAI CLOSED

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 272.11 PTS OR 1.58%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 80.69 PTS OR 0.26 %

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 106.08 EURO RISES TO 1.0558 UP 13 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.799 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.03/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: XX// OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.9200***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.895*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 4.025…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.330

3j Gold at $1813.60 silver at: 20.88 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 31 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 100.09//

3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.03// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.799% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9121 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9631 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.744 UP 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.900 UP 1 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.054 UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.62…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 1 BASIS PTS AT 4.6255

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

Futures, Yields Rise Ahead Of Jobs Report

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 07:54 AM

Global stocks and US index futures gained ahead of the September payrolls report (exp. payrolls 170K, unemp 3.7%, full preview here) that could potentially ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. At 7:45am ET, S&P futures rose 0.1%, after falling by a similar amount on Thursday while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%, after slipping 0.4% the day before. Shares climbed in Asia and Europe, while mainland Chinese markets remain shut for a weeklong holiday. Treasury yields extended their advance, with the 10-year hovering around 4.74% after reaching 4.88% earlier this week. The Bloomberg dollar index was little changed. Oil was also little changed, halting its decline this week. All eyes on today’s NFP release at 8.30am, which is the near-term focus to set narrative: consensus expects NFP to print 170k and the unemployment rate to print 3.7%.

In premarket trading, shale giant Pioneer Natural rose as much as 10% after WSJ reported that Exxon Mobil is in talks to acquire the company. Exxon Mobil fell as much as 2.1%. Tesla fell as much as 1.6% as the electric-vehicle maker cut prices on its most popular cars in the US. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Aehr Test Systems fell as much as 14% after the supplier of semiconductor test and production burn-in equipment reported its first-quarter results.
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. gained 2.8% after it said it sold more than $100 million in advance tickets for the Taylor Swift/The Eras Tour Concert movie.
Elf Beauty rose as much as 2.5% as Jefferies raised to buy from hold. The broker says it sees a buying opportunity following the recent valuation pullback in the cosmetics company. .
Shoals Technologies Group rose as much as 4% as Piper Sandler raised to overweight from neutral. The broker said it’s upgrading the solar-energy equipment maker after the recent pullback in its shares. .

Today’s nonfarm payrolls report is forecast to show employers slowed hiring last month, with 170,000 jobs being added last month, down from 187,000 in August. The crowdsourced whisper number is 190k, while Goldman warns that big data indicators hint at an even larger beat. In any event, this is expected to be the last to show solid hiring before a sharp slowdown.

Job data earlier this week provided a discordant narrative: job-openings overshot estimates, while a measure of private employment from ADP was weaker than forecast. Here is a forecast of payrolls by bank (with our full preview available here).

240,000 – Citigroup
200,000 – Goldman Sachs
200,000 – UBS
190,000 – HSBC
190,000 – Societe Generale
180,000 – Morgan Stanley
175,000 – JP Morgan Chase
173,000 – Bloomberg Economics
150,000 – Deutsche Bank
150,000 – Wells Fargo

“Although both numbers haven’t been moving in tandem recently, the lower-than-expected ADP figures have given markets hope that September nonfarm payrolls will surprise to the downside,” said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank. “Beyond the number of job creations, investors will pay close attention to wage growth figures and whether they confirm recent disinflationary trends.”

Meanwhile, the global bond selloff is hammering risk assets from stocks to corporate credit on concerns that central banks will keep interest rates elevated longer than expected. While 30Y yields this week touched 5% for the first time since 2007 and subsequently dropped, on Friday Treasury yields once again extended their advance, with the 10-year adding two basis points to 4.74% after reaching 4.88% earlier this week. A gauge of dollar strength was little changed.

The beaten-down bond sector will make a staggering comeback in 2024 when higher interest rates send the economy into a recession, according to BofA’s Michael Hartnett. Once the recession being priced by bond and stock markets “mutates into economic data, bonds rally big and bonds should be the best performing asset class in the first half of 2024,” Hartnett wrote in a note.

“Friday’s payrolls data, and next week’s inflation number, will decide whether the 10-year Treasury yield goes up to 5% or down to 4.5%,” said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale in London. A higher-than-forecast jobs number may trigger “another wave of dollar-buying and bond-selling,” he said.

Traders have record sums riding on the outcome of November’s Fed meeting as investors and policymakers debate the likelihood of a further rate increase this year. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who doesn’t vote on the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, said the central bank may keep rates on hold if inflation and the jobs market cool.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose as much as 0.8%, extending earlier advance as bond yields remain in Thursday’s range and gains in dollar pause ahead of US job data. FTSE MIB outperforms peers. Insurance +2% and banks +1.6% lead gains; Food and beverages -1.5% and personal care -0.9% are the only sectors in the red. Insurers led gains in Europe’s Stoxx 600 index, after Aviva Plc was cited in a newspaper as a target for potential bidders. Prudential, Legal & General Group and Phoenix also rose. Here are the most notable European movers:

Shell shares rise as much as 1.5% after it says its earnings from gas trading rebounded in the third quarter from the dip seen in the prior period.
Aviva shares rise as much as 8.3% to 420.40p after The Times reported market speculation that the insurer may be attracting interest from at least two potential bidders.
Man Group gains as much as 4.6%, most since Mar. 21, after BNP Paribas Exane raised its recommendation on the UK-listed hedge fund to outperform from neutral.
Maire shares gain as much as 7.5% as Mediobanca upgrades the technology and engineering group to outperform from neutral, after it won the largest order in the group’s history.
Nestle shares drop as much as 3.4% to the lowest since March 2021, biggest laggard in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index by index points. Retail giant Walmart said Wednesday that it’s already seeing an impact on shopping demand from people taking Ozempic, Wegovy and other appetite-suppressing medications.
Philips shares fall as much as 8.5%, the most in a year, after the company said it agreed with the US FDA recommendations to implement additional testing on certain sleep and respiratory care devices to supplement current test data.
JD Wetherspoon falls as much as 4.8%, the most in two months, as Morgan Stanley notes the UK pub chain now anticipates a “reasonable outcome” for the 2024 fiscal year, versus the “improved outcome” guidance provided at 4Q results. Wetherspoon said it returned to profit in the 12 months through July.
CD Projekt shares widen two-day decline to 12% as analysts point to negative surprise concerning the cost of production of the Phantom Liberty paid add-on to its Cyberpunk 2077 game that may limit profits from the new release.

Earlier in the session, Asia stocks also gained, led by a rally in Hong Kong shares, while other markets were more muted with all eyes on the US payroll data for cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.7% Friday, paring its slide for the week to 1.4%. It would be the third consecutive week of declines for Asian stocks. Chinese tech giants Tencent, Alibaba and Meituan were among the biggest contributors to the gauge’s advance. The benchmark tumbled into a technical correction earlier this week amid concern over higher-for-longer US rates. Hong Kong stocks were the biggest gainers in the region, with analysts citing positive Golden Week holiday spending data and positioning ahead of the reopening of mainland markets as drivers. Japan equities were mixed while benchmarks in Australia and South Korea edged higher.

Hang Seng outperformed amid strength in tech, property and banking stocks, with sentiment also underpinned by hopes of a stabilisation in US-China ties as the White House is reportedly planning a Biden-Xi meeting in California next month although nothing has been confirmed yet.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was choppy as better-than-expected Household Spending data was offset by slower wage growth, while former BoJ official Momma said the BoJ will likely discuss whether to tweak forward guidance along with YCC at the end-October meeting.
Australia’s ASX 200 was led by gains in the top-weighted financial sector after the latest RBA Financial Stability Review which noted increasing global financial stability risks but also stated that Australian banks are well-capitalised and well-positioned to manage any increase in mortgage arrears and absorb loan losses.
Indian stocks gain for a second day, supported by a pause on interest rates by the central bank and gains in the technology and capital goods companies. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.6% to 65,995.63 in Mumbai on Friday, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by the same measure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.5%.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index erased an earlier advance. GBP and CAD are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, JPY and AUD underperform.

The EUR/USD pared a 0.2% drop to trade little changed at 1.0552. The pair is down a 12th week, the longest streak of losses since 1997.
GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.2203, heading for a third daily advance for the first time since August
The yen led declines among Group-of-10 currency peers. USD/JPY extended gains, rising as much as 0.3% to 148.99 after Japan’s slower-than-expected wage growth suggests the Bank of Japan has to wait more to normalize policy

In rates, treasuries were slightly cheaper across the curve ahead of September jobs report, with futures trading just off Thursday session highs, as stock futures hold small gains. Gilts underperformed in early London session, adding to upside pressure on Treasury yields, while WTI oil futures are little changed after past week’s collapse. US yields 2bp-3bp cheaper with curve spreads little changed on the day; 10-year TSYs were around 4.74%, around the middle of Thursday’s range, with gilts lagging by 1.5bp in the sector. Gilt 10-years slightly underperform comparable bunds and USTs. A survey by BMO Capital Markets on client attitudes toward rates market found the lowest willingness to buy in a year — 37% vs a 49% average — if bond prices fall after the jobs report. The Dollar IG issuance slate empty so far and expected to be muted Friday ahead of Monday’s bank-and-bond-market holiday; three names priced $2.5b Thursday, taking weekly volume to almost $9b, below the $15b projected

In commodities, oil trades slightly higher on the day, but is poised for the biggest weekly drop since March. Spot gold is little changed at $1,820/oz.

Looking at the day ahead, today’s US economic data slate includes September jobs report (8:30am) and August consumer credit (3pm). Scheduled Fed speakers include Waller at 12pm

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,290.50
MXAP up 0.4% to 154.81
MXAPJ up 0.8% to 486.12
Nikkei down 0.3% to 30,994.67
Topix little changed at 2,264.08
Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 17,485.98
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,110.48
Sensex up 0.6% to 66,024.33
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,954.17
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,408.73
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 442.89
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.90%
Euro little changed at $1.0543
Brent Futures up 0.4% to $84.41/bbl
Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,819.92
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.42

Top Overnight News

The White House has begun making plans for a November meeting in San Francisco between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping — an attempt to stabilize the relationship between the world’s two most powerful countries, according to senior administration officials. WaPo
India’s RBI keeps rates unchanged, as expected, but suggested it would hold policy tight going forward due to ongoing inflation concerns. WSJ
Beijing’s tough treatment of foreign companies this year, and its use of exit bans targeting bankers and executives, has intensified concerns about business travel to mainland China. Some companies are canceling or postponing trips. Others are maintaining travel plans but adding new safeguards, including telling staff they can enter the country in groups but not alone. WSJ
Russia allowed a return to seaborne exports of diesel just weeks after imposing a ban that roiled global markets, taking other steps instead to keep sufficient fuel supplies at home. BBG
European gas jumped as union members at Chevron LNG facilities in Australia voted to resume industrial action after criticizing the company’s efforts to finalize a deal on pay and conditions. BBG
The ECB may need to raise interest rates again if wages, profits or new supply snags boost inflation, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview published on Friday. RTRS
Tesla cut prices on its Model 3 and Y cars in the US again, days after its third-quarter deliveries missed. BBG
The corporate borrowing binge over the past 18 months shows C-suites across the US have been largely undeterred by the Fed’s relentless hikes. Not only have they displayed little desire to pay down debt, but many have heaped more of it on their books. The recent yield spike may have cooled the market, but the overall pace of borrowing has been blistering. BBG
Exxon is in talks to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources, a person familiar said. An agreement worth as much as $60 billion may completed within days, the WSJ reported, making it the world’s largest deal this year and Exxon’s biggest acquisition in over two decades. WSJ
We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 200k in September (mom sa), above consensus of +170k. We estimate that the unemployment rate declined one tenth to 3.7%—in line with consensus—reflecting a rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation at 62.8% (we do not expect the August rise in the foreign-born labor force to reverse). We estimate a 0.30% increase in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that edges the year-on-year rate lower by 1bp to 4.28%, reflecting waning wage pressures but positive calendar effects (the latter worth +5bps month-over-month, on our estimates). Consensus for average hourly earnings is +0.3% mom and +4.3% yoy. GIR

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly higher albeit with some of the upside capped following the inconclusive performance on Wall St and as participants await the incoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report. ASX 200 was led by gains in the top-weighted financial sector after the latest RBA Financial Stability Review which noted increasing global financial stability risks but also stated that Australian banks are well-capitalised and well-positioned to manage any increase in mortgage arrears and absorb loan losses. Nikkei 225 was choppy as better-than-expected Household Spending data was offset by slower wage growth, while former BoJ official Momma said the BoJ will likely discuss whether to tweak forward guidance along with YCC at the end-October meeting. Hang Seng outperformed amid strength in tech, property and banking stocks, with sentiment also underpinned by hopes of a stabilisation in US-China ties as the White House is reportedly planning a Biden-Xi meeting in California next month although nothing has been confirmed yet.

Top Asian News

TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) September sales: (TWD) 180.43bln (prev. 188.69bln in Aug; -13% Y/Y), according to Reuters.
A 6.1 magnitude earthquake has struck southeast of Honshu, Japan, according to GFZ.

European bourses trade on the front foot as indices attempt to recoup lost ground with the Stoxx 600 on track to close the week out with losses of over 1.5%. Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with the current outperformers being Insurance, Banks, and Tech, while Food Beverages and Tobacco, Optimised Personal Care Drugs and Grocery, and Utilities reside as the laggards. US futures are trading marginally firmer, with overall sentiment tentative ahead of the big NFP report, expected to be released at 13:30 BST / 08:30 ET.

Top European News

German Government expects GDP to decline by 0.4% in 2023 in draft Autumn projections, according to Reuters citing sources. German government foresees GDP growth of 1.3% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025 and expects inflation of 6.1% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024. Reasons for the expected mild GDP contraction in 2023 are high energy prices, high inflation and weakness in international trade, via Reuters citing German Government Source

DXY is caged to a tight 106.34-55 with FX markets generally steady in the run-up to the US jobs report.
Pound perked up enough in early trade to probe 1.2200 and decent expiry interest at the round number.
EUR/USD secured a firmer grasp of the 1.0500 handle having closed bullishly above the 10 DMA yesterday.
Kiwi and Aussie are underpinned by a pick-up in broad risk appetite rather than specifics.

Fixed Income

Bond futures have plateaued and pushed the bounds of recovery far enough ahead of the US jobs data – which has the potential to move the dial or even alter the overall trend.
Bunds are close to 128.00 within their 128.17-127.79 intraday range having peaked on Monday at 128.50 and troughed at 126.62 on Wednesday.
Gilts are midway between 92.86-53 stalls flanked by 93.71-91.50 w-t-d extremes.
T-note is sitting tight inside 107-10/02 confines compared to a high of 107-29+ and 106-03+ low.
Orders for Italy’s new 5-yr BTP Valore retail bond touched EUR 16bln since the beginning of the offer, according to Reuters.

Commodities

Crude futures are choppy with two-way price action seen this morning as the complex consolidates after essentially wiping out its September gains at the start of this month.
Dutch TTF futures are firmer intraday as the Offshore Alliance members at Chevron voted to recommence protected industrial action.
Spot gold is flat within recent ranges while base metals rebounded off worst levels at the start of European trading but gains are capped ahead of the tier 1 US data in the afternoon.
Offshore Alliance members at Chevron (CVX) vote to recommence protected industrial action, according to the union.
Russia lifts diesel export ban via pipelines, according to Ifax.

Central banks

ECB’s Schnabel said if risks materialise then further rate hikes may be necessary at some point, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Herodotou said monetary policy transmission is taking place to tame inflation, but energy prices and bank liquidity needs monitoring, according to Reuters.
Former BoJ official Momma commented that the BoJ will likely discuss whether to tweak forward guidance along with YCC at the October 30th-31st meeting,
RBA Financial Stability Review stated global financial stability risks are elevated and growing, while the risks include China’s property sector, a disorderly fall in global asset prices and exposure to commercial real estate. The FSR also noted that tightening global financial conditions could slow growth and lift unemployment, while a fall in global asset prices could raise funding costs in Australia and limit the supply of credit. Nonetheless, it stated the Australian financial system is sound but there are some pockets of stress among household borrowers and Australian banks are well-capitalised with low exposure to commercial property, as well as well-positioned to manage any increase in mortgage arrears and absorb loan losses.
RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, while it maintained the stance of remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation in which 5 out of 6 members voted in favour of the policy stance. RBI Governor Das said they have identified inflation as a major risk to macroeconomic stability and remain focused on aligning inflation to the 4% target with the MPC highly alert and will take timely measures as necessary. However, Das commented that headline inflation is to see further easing in September and the silver lining is the declining core inflation, as well as noted that the transmission of past rate hikes is thus far incomplete.
RBI Governor Das said OMO sales are not for yield curve management but for liquidity management. Das added the RBI does not have a specific level in mind for the exchange rate; intervention is to prevent volatility in the FX market, according to Reuters.
CNB Minutes: A large part of the debate was devoted to starting the process of lowering monetary policy rates and pace; the weakening of the FX rate over the past month had delivered a monetary policy easing of roughly 25-50bps, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

08:30: Sept. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 170,000, prior 187,000
- Change in Private Payrolls, est. 160,000, prior 179,000
- Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 5,000, prior 16,000
- Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.8%
  - Underemployment Rate, prior 7.1%
  - Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.8%, prior 62.8%
- Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.4, prior 34.4
  - Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
  - Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
15:00: Aug. Consumer Credit, est. $11.7b, prior $10.4b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk assets were under pressure again over the last 24 hours, with investors remaining cautious before today’s US jobs report. For instance, oil prices remained on track for their worst weekly performance since the banking turmoil in March, having now shed more than -11% this week. Credit spreads widened as well, with US HY spreads at their widest in more than 3 months. And whilst it’s true that sovereign bonds did recover some ground for the most part, we did see some new milestones for yields, and the US 30yr real yield (+6.8bps) closed at a post-2008 high of 2.50%. Furthermore, the spread between Italian and German 10yr yields closed above 200bps for the first time since early February. US equities also lost further ground, with the S&P 500 down -0.13% in spite of a late recovery, and there’s been little respite this morning with futures for the index down -0.05%.

With that backdrop in mind, the main highlight today is likely to be the US jobs report for September, which is the last before the Fed’s next decision on November 1. And since pricing for another rate hike this year has kept oscillating above and below 50% (currently 38% this morning), today’s reading will be important in determining if another hike remains on the table. The reading also follows a progressive slowing in job growth over recent months, and in the last report we saw the 3m average for payrolls growth fall to a post-pandemic low of +150k. Then on Wednesday this week, the ADP’s report of private payrolls showed the weakest monthly gain (+89k) since January 2021, which prompted investors to dial back the chances of another rate hike. But on the other hand, the weekly jobless claims yesterday were at 207k (vs. 210k expected) over the week ending September 30, which pushed the 4-week average down to its lowest since early February, at 208.75k. So there are signals pointing in both directions. For today, our US economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to grow by +165k, which would see the unemployment rate tick down a tenth to 3.7%.

With all that to look forward to, sentiment remained pretty negative in markets and there was a clear risk-off tone for much of the day yesterday. That was very clear in commodity markets, where oil prices continued to slump and Brent Crude fell another -2.03% to $84.07/bbl. Bear in mind that it was at $95/bbl at the start of the week, so with a -11.75% decline over four days, Brent is on track to almost match its worst week of the year back in March (-11.85%). If it’s sustained, this downward pressure could actually be very supportive for central banks as they seek to get inflation back to target. However, the reason it’s slumped is very much based on fears that growth is weakening, which in turn would reduce oil demand. It was a similar story for other cyclical commodities, and copper prices (often taken to be an industrial bellwether) were down -1.03% to a 4-month low. Meanwhile, the rise in real rates meant that gold (-0.06%) remained under pressure, with a 9th consecutive daily fall for the first time since 2016.

When it came to equities, the risk-off mood dominated in the first half of the US session, with the S&P 500 down -0.89% at the lows of the day. But it recovered to end the day with a modest decline of -0.13%. Other US indices, including the NASDAQ (-0.12%), the FANG+ index (-0.14%) and the Russell 2000 (+0.14%), posted similar moves. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.28%) ticked up from its 6-month low the previous day, but there still wasn’t much strength across the major indices, and the DAX (-0.20%) closed at a 6-month low.

For sovereign bonds however, the risk-off tone meant they put in a much better performance, not least because investors moved to lower the chances of further monetary tightening. In the US, that meant yields on 10yr Treasuries were down -1.4bps to 4.72%, whilst in Europe there were also declines for yields on 10yr bunds (-4.0bps), OATs (-2.4bps) and gilts (-3.8bps). However, it wasn’t all good news, and longer-dated US Treasuries continued to struggle, with new records set among some real yields. For instance, the 20yr real yield (+6.4bps) hit a post-2009 high of 2.58%, and the 30yr real yield (+6.7bps) hit a post-2008 high of 2.49%. Italian BTPs also lost further ground, and the spread between 10yr BTP yields over bunds closed above 200bps for the first time since early February.

That rates moves came amidst slightly less hawkish comments from Fed and ECB speakers. San Francisco Fed President Daly noted that the rise in yields in September “is equivalent to about a rate hike” and that the Fed can hold rates steady if the cooling of the labour market and inflation continues. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that “we have time to see if we’ve done enough or whether there’s more work to do”. Over in Europe, Banque de France Governor Villeroy said that as of today he saw “no justification for an additional increase in the ECB rates”. Speaking of central banks, my colleague Peter Sidorov has published a report overnight on global central bank QT. We’ve seen DM central banks’ rundown of bond holdings accelerate in recent months and he observes that this QT pace is yet to peak. See the report here for more on QT trends and their implications.

Overnight in Asia, there’ve been more positive signs in markets, with gains across the major equity indices. The Hang Seng (+1.81%) is leading the way, but there’s also been advances for the KOSPI (+0.26%) and the Nikkei (+0.08%), whilst markets in mainland China remain closed for a holiday. The 10yr Treasury has also seen modest gains overnight, with yields down -0.6bps to 4.71%.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for September. Other data includes German factory orders and Italian retail sales for August, along with the Canadian employment report for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Waller, and the ECB’s Knot, Vasle, Vujcic and Kazimir.

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Equities firmer & DXY rangebound with overall sentiment tentative ahead of NFP – Newsquawk US Market Open

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 05:57 AM

European bourses trade on the front foot as indices attempt to recoup lost ground, US futures are trading marginally firmer, with overall sentiment tentative ahead of the big NFP report.
DXY is caged to a tight 106.34-55 with FX markets generally steady, Pound perked up enough in early trade to probe 1.2200 and EUR/USD secured a firmer grasp of the 1.0500 handle.
Crude futures are choppy with two-way price action seen this morning as the complex consolidates after essentially wiping out its September gains at the start of this month.
Offshore Alliance members at Chevron (CVX) vote to recommence protected industrial action; EU and US are said to be seeking an interim steel deal to avoid the return of Trump tariffs.
Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP & Canadian Employment, Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Kazimir, Vujcic, Vasle, Knot.

6th October 2023

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses trade on the front foot as indices attempt to recoup lost ground with the Stoxx 600 on track to close the week out with losses of over 1.5%.
Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with the current outperformers being Insurance, Banks, and Tech, while Food Beverages and Tobacco, Optimised Personal Care Drugs and Grocery, and Utilities reside as the laggards.
US futures are trading marginally firmer, with overall sentiment tentative ahead of the big NFP report, expected to be released at 13:30 BST / 08:30 ET.
Click here for more details.

FX

DXY is caged to a tight 106.34-55 with FX markets generally steady in the run-up to the US jobs report.
Pound perked up enough in early trade to probe 1.2200 and decent expiry interest at the round number.
EUR/USD secured a firmer grasp of the 1.0500 handle having closed bullishly above the 10 DMA yesterday.
Kiwi and Aussie are underpinned by a pick-up in broad risk appetite rather than specifics.
Click here for more details.
Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Bond futures have plateaued and pushed the bounds of recovery far enough ahead of the US jobs data – which has the potential to move the dial or even alter the overall trend.
Bunds are close to 128.00 within their 128.17-127.79 intraday range having peaked on Monday at 128.50 and troughed at 126.62 on Wednesday.
Gilts are midway between 92.86-53 stalls flanked by 93.71-91.50 w-t-d extremes.
T-note is sitting tight inside 107-10/02 confines compared to a high of 107-29+ and 106-03+ low.
Orders for Italy’s new 5-yr BTP Valore retail bond touched EUR 16bln since the beginning of the offer, according to Reuters.
Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

Crude futures are choppy with two-way price action seen this morning as the complex consolidates after essentially wiping out its September gains at the start of this month.
Dutch TTF futures are firmer intraday as the Offshore Alliance members at Chevron voted to recommence protected industrial action.
Spot gold is flat within recent ranges while base metals rebounded off worst levels at the start of European trading but gains are capped ahead of the tier 1 US data in the afternoon.
Offshore Alliance members at Chevron (CVX) vote to recommence protected industrial action, according to the union.
Russia lifts diesel export ban via pipelines, according to Ifax.
Click here for more details.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin trades marginally higher with prices back above the USD 27,500 level.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

German Government expects GDP to decline by 0.4% in 2023 in draft Autumn projections, according to Reuters citing sources. German government foresees GDP growth of 1.3% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025 and expects inflation of 6.1% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024. Reasons for the expected mild GDP contraction in 2023 are high energy prices, high inflation and weakness in international trade, via Reuters citing German Government Source

EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

UK Halifax House Prices MM* (Sep 2023) -0.4% (Prev. -1.9%, Rev. -1.8%)
German Industrial Orders MM* (Aug 2023) 3.9% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. -11.7%, Rev. -11.3%)
French Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Aug 2023) -8.202B (Prev. -8.089B, Rev. -8.106B)
Italian Retail Sales SA MM* (Aug 2023) -0.4% vs Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.4%)
Swiss Unemployment Rate Adj (Sep 2023) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.1%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Former US President Trump reportedly shared sensitive information about American nuclear submarines with a billionaire member of Mar-a-Lago shortly after leaving office, according to people familiar with the matter cited by NYT.
Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

EU and US are said to be seeking an interim steel deal to avoid the return of Trump tariffs, according to Bloomberg.
Turkish military conducted airstrikes against Kurdish militant targets in northern Syria which destroyed 30 targets including militant shelters and depots with militants neutralised, according to the Turkish Defence Ministry.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded mostly higher albeit with some of the upside capped following the inconclusive performance on Wall St and as participants await the incoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report.
ASX 200 was led by gains in the top-weighted financial sector after the latest RBA Financial Stability Review which noted increasing global financial stability risks but also stated that Australian banks are well-capitalised and well-positioned to manage any increase in mortgage arrears and absorb loan losses.
Nikkei 225 was choppy as better-than-expected Household Spending data was offset by slower wage growth, while former BoJ official Momma said the BoJ will likely discuss whether to tweak forward guidance along with YCC at the end-October meeting.
Hang Seng outperformed amid strength in tech, property and banking stocks, with sentiment also underpinned by hopes of a stabilisation in US-China ties as the White House is reportedly planning a Biden-Xi meeting in California next month although nothing has been confirmed yet.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) September sales: (TWD) 180.43bln (prev. 188.69bln in Aug; -13% Y/Y), according to Reuters.
A 6.1 magnitude earthquake has struck southeast of Honshu, Japan, according to GFZ.

APAC DATA RECAP

Japanese All Household Spending MM (Aug) 3.9% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. -2.7%)
Japanese All Household Spending YY (Aug) -2.5% vs. Exp. -4.3% (Prev. -5.0%)
Japanese Overall Labour Cash Earnings (Aug) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.3%)
Japanese Coincident Index (Aug P) 114.3 vs Exp. 114.2
Japanese Leading Index (Aug P) 109.5 vs Exp. 109.1
Japanese Leading Indicator* (Aug 2023) 1.3 (Prev. -0.6)
Japanese Coincident Index* (Aug 2023) 0.1 (Prev. -1.1, Rev. -1.4)

CENTRAL BANKS

ECB’s Schnabel said if risks materialise then further rate hikes may be necessary at some point, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Herodotou said monetary policy transmission is taking place to tame inflation, but energy prices and bank liquidity needs monitoring, according to Reuters.
Former BoJ official Momma commented that the BoJ will likely discuss whether to tweak forward guidance along with YCC at the October 30th-31st meeting,
RBA Financial Stability Review stated global financial stability risks are elevated and growing, while the risks include China’s property sector, a disorderly fall in global asset prices and exposure to commercial real estate. The FSR also noted that tightening global financial conditions could slow growth and lift unemployment, while a fall in global asset prices could raise funding costs in Australia and limit the supply of credit. Nonetheless, it stated the Australian financial system is sound but there are some pockets of stress among household borrowers and Australian banks are well-capitalised with low exposure to commercial property, as well as well-positioned to manage any increase in mortgage arrears and absorb loan losses.
RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, while it maintained the stance of remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation in which 5 out of 6 members voted in favour of the policy stance. RBI Governor Das said they have identified inflation as a major risk to macroeconomic stability and remain focused on aligning inflation to the 4% target with the MPC highly alert and will take timely measures as necessary. However, Das commented that headline inflation is to see further easing in September and the silver lining is the declining core inflation, as well as noted that the transmission of past rate hikes is thus far incomplete.
RBI Governor Das said OMO sales are not for yield curve management but for liquidity management. Das added the RBI does not have a specific level in mind for the exchange rate; intervention is to prevent volatility in the FX market, according to Reuters.
CNB Minutes: A large part of the debate was devoted to starting the process of lowering monetary policy rates and pace; the weakening of the FX rate over the past month had delivered a monetary policy easing of roughly 25-50bps, according to Reuters.

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

//NORTH KOREA/

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN/

Japan has an impossible choice to make: They must watch their currency, they must watch their bond yields and they must watch outflows of yen. Their problem is that they can control only two of these. It looks like they are ready to let yields rise to above 1% as they lose their yield curve.

(zerohedge)

Japan Splits Management Of The Impossible Trilemma: MOF For The Currency, BOJ For The Yields

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 09:40 PM

Observing the cartoonish circus that is Japan’s central bank and ministry of finance, Bloomberg’s Masaki Kondo writes that Japan’s hesitation to let go of the yen means the BOJ is managing monetary policy amid an almost impossible trinity of outcomes. In the end the yen will probably take precedence over bonds with 10-year yields likely to climb toward 1%.

The Mundell-Fleming trilemma stipulates a nation can’t achieve the free flow of capital, independent monetary policy and a fixed exchange rate simultaneously. The fact that Japan’s apparent reluctance to let JPY weaken despite the nation’s open capital account is putting the BOJ in this trilemma, to a certain degree.

This difficulty is pronounced by the BOJ’s bond-purchase operation; the central bank may want to buy more bonds to keep yields low, but concern over a further weakness in the yen is preventing the BOJ from doing so. Japan’s way to get around this problem is to split the tasks: the MOF for the currency and the BOJ for yields.

Whether this will work or not remains to be seen. But the initial rebound higher for USD/JPY after Tuesday’s slide suggests Japan’s authorities need to be even more convincing.

* * *

Meanwhile, continued yen weakness means one thing: inflation will keep rising and rising as real wages keep falling and falling… and just hit a record low.

And there will come a point when even the world’s most compliant and sheepish society says enough.

end

JAPAN

Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida eats radioactive fish from Fukushima waters

(zerohedge)

Japan’s Prime Minister Eats Radioactive Fish From Fukushima Waters

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 05:45 AM

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida along with three of his cabinet members ate seafood sourced from waters off the coast of Fukushima, a stunt he pulled roughly a month before in the hopes of dispelling concerns over the safety of the food.

“It is important to show safety based on scientific evidence and resolutely disseminate (the information) in and outside of Japan,” said Economy and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura in a statement to the press.

The move comes after Japan released treated radioactive wastewater from its power plants which are said to still contain tritium, but no other radioactive materials.

Kishida and the tree ministers held a lunch meeting where they ate flounder, octopus and sea bass sashimi along with rice harvested from Fukushima, in order to “inform people both at home and abroad” about the food’s safety.

Nishimura oversaw and consulted with experts on the plan to release the wastewater into the nearby sea. He stressed that the lunch displayed a “strong commitment to take the leadership in tackling reputational damage while standing by the feeling of the fisheries community in Fukushima.”

Officials plan to visit markets around the region over the coming week to help promote the safety of consuming the fish caught near Fukushima and restore confidence. Kishida on Thursday ate octopus caught by a Fukushima fishmonger who was selling in Tokyo as reporters watched. –Fox News

Basically this:

ver 18,000 people died and 160,000 people fled their homes after the Fukushima nuclear power plant famously malfunctioned in 2011 after an earthquake and tsunami caused emergency backup power generators to fail, causing three nuclear meltdowns.

Since the disaster, the plant has stored 1.34 million tons of water in 1,000 tanks, which was then treated and released in order to free up space for additional facilities.

Surrounding the release, activists and fishermen have raised concerns over the impact of the waste, and have expressed concerns that releasing it will make it more difficult to sell their fish in other markets.

end

3 CHINA /

CHINA/USA

USA cuts 3000 special forces as their pivot for confrontation with China

(zerohedge)

US To Cut Special Forces In Pivot From Mideast To ‘China Threat’ Readiness

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 04:15 AM

The US military’s recruiting struggles have been no secret, having been reported widely for years, at a moment Washington hawks look for “new enemies” following two decades of the so-called global war on terror (GWOT) and the deeply unpopular ‘forever wars’ Iraq and Afghanistan.

On Thursday The Wall Street Journal has learned that the Pentagon is set to significantly cut its fighting force among special operations units. But the controversial plan is already receiving significant pushback among top brass overseeing special warfare and training of foreign allied forces.

While special operators’ heyday was the type of counterterror operations that defined the GWOT era of elite forces, the thinking on Capitol Hill is that the future will involve potential conflicts with large powers like Russia or China.

The Journals’ sources spell out that the cut is motivated by a shift in strategic priorities away from the Middle East and especially toward the “China threat”.

“The Army is cutting about 3,000 troops, or about 10% from its special-operations ranks, which could include so-called trigger-pullers from the Green Beret commando units who have conducted some of the nation’s most dangerous and sensitive missions around the world, from the jungles of Vietnam to the back alleys of Baghdad,” writes the WSJ.

US military officials listed out the types of Army jobs on the chopping block as follows: psychological warfare, civil affairs, intelligence operators, communications troops, logistics and other elite support roles, with all of these related to special forces.

The report tallies that in total Special Operations Command would be reduced by about 3,700 troops since last year. But this has resulted in pushback from senior officers who argue that the training of partner forces – such as in Ukraine or Taiwan – could be negatively impacted by the cuts.

But according to the rationale of the proponents of the cuts:

The reductions would enable the Army to rebalance toward the large conventional ground forces needed in a potential fight in Asia. The trims in the ranks of special forces would also help the Army cope with a recruiting shortfall in a strong labor market.

Related to ongoing problems in recruitment, one question that few politicians are asking is the role of the denigration of “warrior culture” in the armed forces.

The recent years of woke initiatives such as admission of “transgender”-identifying individuals has corresponded with recruiting struggles among all branches. As we’ve featured multiple times, the Pentagon continues paying the price for going woke instead of actually focusing on… actual combat readiness.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

UK climate policy now faces growing opposition

(Adamczyk/remix)

UK Climate Policy Faces Growing Opposition

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Grzegorz Adamczyk via Remix News,

Images of major cities flooded, like recent ones from New York City and earlier from Libya’s Derna, where a shocking humanitarian disaster occurred due to flooding, and even earlier footage from Istanbul and Slovenia, will undoubtedly serve as strong arguments for those calling for immediate action to combat climate change.

Against this backdrop, a recent statement by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, announcing a delay in ambitious climate goals, sounded like unexpected support for anti-climate heresies and a clear distancing from the green revolution pushed by the EU.

Observers noted that Sunak made his statement to journalists, not in parliament. Commentators speculated that it might simply be a populist move by the prime minister in the face of declining voter support. Regardless, Sunak’s statement resonates with a socially receptive audience.

More and more British citizens are beginning to rebel against the costly and restrictive decisions imposed in the name of climate policy. This dissatisfaction is no longer limited to ordinary citizens with limited knowledge or biases but is starting to reach elite representatives.

Famous American author, Lionel Shriver, who has lived in the U.K. for years, stated in an interview with Sky News that the way authorities are implementing climate restrictions resembles authoritarianism and devastates the U.K.’s culture of freedom.

Meanwhile, John Gray, a leading figure in English liberalism, argued that the current form of climate policy is becoming a kind of organized absurdity. Importantly, this criticism isn’t about outright denialism involving claims that climate change doesn’t exist or that human actions don’t significantly impact the environment.

The main issue is that the adopted measures are socially and politically unacceptable.

Furthermore, as Gray emphasizes, these measures are based on technocratic assumptions that through mandates and prohibitions, we can not only manage social and economic processes but even influence the direction of how the climate evolves.

However, the fact that human actions have triggered climate change should not lead us to the belief that we can simply stop them at a designated point.

end

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA

You decide!

Putin On Prigozhin Death: Wagner Leaders Got Drunk, High, & Played With Grenades Aboard Plane

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 05:20 PM

President Vladimir Putin just floated the most interesting – and let’s say, colorful – theory to date on why Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane went down outside Moscow on August 23. While much of Western reporting and even Russian media itself have described the Wagner chief’s death as due to either an anti-air missile or a planted bomb being detonated, Putin told an annual meeting of the Valdai Club in Sochi on Thursday that Prigozhin and his men likely got drunk or possibly high, and were playing with grenades.

Bloomberg, which picked up on the unexpected public comments, wrote: “Russian President Vladimir Putin said pieces of grenade were found in the bodies of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and other mercenary leaders who died in a plane crash, as he hinted that the man who led an armed revolt against the Kremlin’s military leadership had been a drug user.”

Putin said, “In the bodies of those who died in the air crash fragments of hand grenades were found.”

The Russian leader expressed regret that toxicology tests weren’t conducted on the recovered bodies at the crash site, as they “found not only $10 million in cash, but 5 kilograms of cocaine” in a subsequent raid on Wagner PMC’s main offices in St. Petersburg.

In total 10 passengers as well as crew were killed aboard the Embraer SA Legacy 600 private jet. US sources have speculated it was likely a bomb that was placed on the plane, and detonated midair. There’s also the Russian shootdown theory, ordered by either Putin or the military as ‘revenge’ for the June Wagner mutiny.

Broadly, Western sources have viewed the whole killing as an assassination ordered by Putin himself, but which the Kremlin has denied as an “absolute lie”.

But given the nonchalant and casual way Putin just told an audience of top Russian officials that it boils down to irresponsible mercenaries getting drunk and high and deciding to play games with hand grenades, it seems Putin could simply be openly taunting his enemies here. Is he trolling?

The Thursday comments on Prigozhin’s death were widely reported in international headlines soon after Putin saying them. It came during a lengthy Q&A session with the Russian leader, as is typical of the Valdai format. Putin certainly knows US and European press and officials closely watch and monitor his words at these events.

END

IRAQ/USA

Iraq has had enough. They will fully de dollarize cash transactions by year end as the uSA will not give some of the Iraq’s money stored at the Fed.

(the cradle)

Iraq To Fully De-Dollarize Cash Transactions By Year’s End

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 05:00 PM

Via The Cradle,

The Iraqi government will ban all cash withdrawals and transactions in the US dollar as of January 1st 2024, according to Mazen Ahmed, director-general of investment and remittances at the Iraqi Central Bank (CBI).

The CBI official says that people who deposit dollars into banks before the end of 2023 will still be able to withdraw these funds in dollars next year. However, dollars deposited in 2024 will only be available in local currency at the official rate of 1,320 dinars.

“You want to transfer? Transfer. You want a card in dollars? Here you go, you can use the card inside Iraq at the official rate, or if you want to withdraw cash, you can at the official rate in dinars… But don’t talk to me about cash dollars anymore,” Ahmed toldReuters.

He also claimed the move is meant to “stamp out the illicit use” of about 50 percent of the $10 billion that Iraq imports in cash each year on semimonthly cargo flights from the New York Federal Reserve.

With more than $100 billion in reserves held by US banks, Baghdad heavily relies on the goodwill of US officials to ensure the economy doesn’t collapse. Furthermore, since 2003, all Iraqi oil revenues have been paid into an account with the US Federal Reserve, allowing Washington to control the Iraqi economy and pressure its government.

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that US officials last month refused to approve the transfer of an extra $1 billion in cash to Iraq from the country’s oil sales proceeds.

“After the US denied Iraq’s initial appeal last month, the [CBI] last week submitted a formal request, which the [US] Treasury is still considering,” a senior Iraqi official told the WSJ.

The move reportedly angered Iraqi officials, who said they need access to their oil revenues to protect Iraq’s cash reserves after recent restrictions from the White House “set off panic buying of greenbacks and hoarding of dollars by exchanges.”

US Treasury officials reportedly told CBI officials that “sending a large extra shipment is contrary to Washington’s goal of reducing Iraq’s use of US banknotes in favor of more easily traceable electronic transactions.”

With more than $100 billion in reserves held hostage by the US, Washington has significant leverage over the Iraqi economy and banking system. In July, the US Treasury sanctioned fourteen Iraqi private banks accusing them of facilitating US dollar transfers to Iran, a country whose economy Washington seeks to suffocate via sanctions. As a result of this, nearly a third of Iraq’s 72 banks are now banned from facilitating dollar transactions.

In 2022, Iraq’s central bank enforced tight regulations under US pressure to ensure dollars do not reach Iran. Bank clients wishing to transfer dollar funds must apply through an online platform and provide detailed information on end recipients before a transfer is approved.

Iraqi MP and member of the Finance Committee in Iraq’s Council of Representatives, Hussein Mouanes, told The Cradle in an exclusive interview in May: “Iraq has been and continues to be a slave to the US dollar… every country’s economic strength depends on the strength of its currency.”

“It is clear that Iraq is economically dominated by the US, and our government does not truly control or have access to its own money… We believe that it is crucial to move away from the hegemony of the dollar, especially as it has become a tool to impose sanctions on countries. It is time for Iraq to rely on its local currency,” he added.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

GLOBAL ISSUES

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

COVID-19 Shot May Be Linked To Unexpected Vaginal Bleeding: Study

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 09:20 PM

Authored by Mary Gillis via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Norwegian scientists have discovered an unusual side effect in COVID-19-vaccinated women who don’t menstruate: atypical vaginal bleeding after injection with the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.

Researchers studied close to 22,000 women across different reproductive aging stages over about nine months and found that 3.3 percent of postmenopausal, 14.1 percent of perimenopausal, and 13.1 percent of premenopausal women experienced at least one unexpected bleed after receiving the COVID-19 shot, according to the authors of the study published in Science Advances.

About half of the bleeds were said to have occurred within the first four weeks of getting the vaccine. Postmenopausal women’s risk of bleeding was two to three times higher during the 28 days after injection than before receiving the shot. The link was stronger in perimenopausal and premenopausal women, with both groups showing a three- to fivefold elevated risk. Perimenopausal women are typically in their 40s and have begun experiencing some menopause symptoms but can still get pregnant, while premenstrual women have no menopause symptoms.

Researchers also found a difference in women’s susceptibility when given one shot over the other. Premenopausal women were at a 32 percent higher risk of vaginal bleeding after a dose of the Moderna vaccine than the Pfizer.

How Is Vaccination Linked to Bleeding?

Study author Kristine Blix and her colleagues at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health in Oslo drew from questionnaire data from an ongoing population health survey to investigate COVID-19 vaccines and unexpected bleeding in the three groups.

“We had already, from the early pandemic, biweekly questionnaires going out to cohort participants to monitor effects of the pandemic,” Ms. Blix told Nature.

Responses to the 2021 questionnaire indicated that some women experienced unusually heavy menstrual bleeding after receiving the vaccine. “This urged us to ask for bleeding patterns in a structured manner,” she said.

Ms. Blix’s team didn’t investigate the reasons for the unexplained bleeding, and no conclusive evidence supports that the shot caused it. However, one theory is that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein used in the vaccines may be a culprit.

“Increased risk after both Comirnaty (Pfizer) and Spikevax (Moderna) suggest a mechanism related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein and not to other vaccine components,” the authors wrote in the paper. “This is also supported by a higher risk observed after Spikevax in premenopausal women.” Possible pathways to induce the bleeding may stem from a spike protein-related immune response or an endometrial expression of the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors that serve as the virus’ entry point, they continued.

Additional Studies

A study published in February that examined close to 8,000 women found abnormal bleeding to be a common side effect of the Pfizer vaccine. Most women experienced excessive bleeding between their vaccination date and their next menstrual period, authors wrote in the paper, recommending further investigation into the events and the possible long-term consequences of vaccine-induced vaginal bleeding.

In 2022, The Lancet published a study where researchers showed that a cohort of nearly 64,000 respondents ages 18 and older experienced menstrual irregularities or vaginal bleeding in the form of altered menstruation timing and severity of menstrual symptoms to menopausal bleeding and resumption of menses.

In contrast, a 2023 study published in Vaccine showed premenopausal women vaccinated for COVID-19 were no more likely to report irregular menstrual cycles or heavier bleeds after the shot than unvaccinated women. However, the authors acknowledged about a one-day delay or one-day longer cycle in vaccinated versus unvaccinated women.

Possible Causes of Irregular Vaginal Bleeding

Irregular bleeding may be caused by several factors ranging from stress to more serious underlying medical conditions, including:

Endometriosis.
Pelvic inflammatory disease.
Polycystic ovary syndrome.
Primary ovarian insufficiency.
Thyroid or pituitary gland disorders.
Uterine or ovarian cancer.

Medications and pregnancy complications may also cause irregular bleeding. These include:

Birth control pills.
Medications including steroids or blood thinners.
Miscarriages or an ectopic pregnancy.
Surgeries, scarring, or blockages in a woman’s uterus, ovaries, or fallopian tubes.

FDA Still Recommends the Vaccine

On Sept. 11, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized an updated COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use—one “formulated to more closely target currently circulating variants and to provide better protection against serious consequences of COVID-19, including hospitalization and death.”

“Vaccination remains critical to public health and continued protection against serious consequences of COVID-19, including hospitalization and death,” said Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, in a press release. “The public can be assured that these updated vaccines have met the agency’s rigorous scientific standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality. We very much encourage those who are eligible to consider getting vaccinated.”

end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

mRNA in our food? HORRIFYING: Rep. Thomas Massie Exposes Taxpayer-Funded “Transgenic Edible Vaccines”; Turns Edible Plants Like Lettuce and Spinach Into mRNA Vaccine Factories to Replace mRNA Shots

Vigilant News; The project aims to utilize mRNA technology to turn edible plants into vaccine factories. a deeply concerning issue that should alarm every American citizen. U.S. government funding it

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 6

READ IN APP

https://vigilantnews.com/post/horrifying-rep-thomas-massie-exposes-taxpayer-funded-transgenic-edible-vaccines-which-turns-edible-plants-like-lettuce-and-spinach-into-mrna-vaccine-factories-to-replace-mrna-shots

This article originally appeared on thegatewaypundit.com and was republished with permission.

end

Don’t be fooled, weight loss drug Ozempic and Wegovy can be devastating, serious side effects study shows! Be warend! Like Jenny Craig & Weight Watchers etc., you are sold a bag of deceit! Pancreas

Weight-loss drugs (originally diabetic drugs) like Ozempic and Wegovy come with the risk of serious gastrointestinal issues, including inflammation in the pancreas.

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 5

READ IN APP

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2810542

‘There’s been a surge in demand for a class of diabetes drugs that are now popular for their serendipitous byproduct: weight loss.

end

‘Matt Gaetz is a hero’ (American Thinker) by Patricia McCarthy; There has to be a line drawn in the sand because the toleration of lies, stonewalling half truths, and the disgusting selfish, power

seeking UNIPARTY politicians who want individual wealth at the expense of this Republic and the honest citizens who expected transparency. Which repubs & democrats in UNIPARTY on the take re UKRAINE?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 6

READ IN APP

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2023/10/matt_gaetz_is_a_hero.html

end

SLAY NEWS

he latest reports from Slay News

Top Climate Scientist Blows Whistle, Admits ‘Crisis’ Is a Hoax One of the world’s most respected climate scientists has blown the lid off the green agenda narrative that the Earth is facing a “crisis” due to “global warming.”READ MORE

High School Senior Dies Suddenly on Field during Homecoming Game A 17-year-old Ohio high school senior has died suddenly during homecoming festivities.READ MORE

Ukraine ‘Freaking Out’ over McCarthy’s Removal: ‘It Is a Disaster’Ukraine is reportedly “freaking out” after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was removed as House speaker this week.READ MORE

Biden Nominates Hunter’s Burisma-Linked Associate as Special Counsel Democrat President Joe Biden has nominated his son Hunter’s former business associate to serve as special counsel.READ MORE

Seattle Thug Stunned When Judge Refuses to Release Him for Violent Robbery Charges: ‘I Can’t Get House Arrest?’A suspected member of a violent home invasion gang was stunned when a judge refused to release him.READ MORE

Photo Shows Biden’s Dog Biting White House Staffer New images have emerged that show Democrat President Joe Biden’s dog biting a White House staffer.READ MORE

Russia Prepares for WWIII as Public Receives ‘Nuke Incoming’ Warnings The Russian public has been taking part in nuclear attack drills across the country as the nation appears to be preparing for World War III.READ MORE

Liberal Washington Post Reporter Admits Trump Is Victim of Double Standard in NY ‘Fraud’ Case A liberal Washington Post reporter has raised the alarm over concerns that the Democrats are targeting President Donald Trump with a double standard of justice.READ MORE

Jim Jordan Tells Biden the Jig Is Up: ‘Most Pressing Issue on Americans’ Minds Is Not Ukraine, It’s the Border and Crime’Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) just told Democrat President Joe Biden the jig is up and declared that he is against more funding for Ukraine.READ MORE

Biden Wipes Another $9 Billion from the Debts of College-Educated Voters Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration has announced that another $9 billion in taxpayer money will be used to wipe the student debts of around 125,000 college-educated voters.READ MORE

Hillary Clinton: Trump Supporters Are ‘Like a Cult’ – ‘None of That Is American’Twice-failed Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is in a panic over President Donald Trump’s lead in the GOP polls.READ MORE

Steve Scalise Puts Biden on Notice, Enters Race for Speaker: ‘Under Biden’s Failed Leadership, Our Country Is Being Pushed to the Brink’Steve Scalise ripped Joe Biden for the Democrat president’s many failures while entering the race for House speaker.READ MORE

Jim Jordan Confirms Biden’s Worst Fears, Says He Will Run for House Speaker Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) has confirmed Democrat President Joe Biden’s worst fears by becoming the first Republican to officially enter the race to be the next House speaker.READ MORE

New Zealand Government Exempted Elites from Vax Mandates Forced onto Public

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

Exxon days away from giant shale giant Pioneer

(zerohedge)

Exxon “Days Away” From Buying Shale Giant Pioneer In “Seismic Deal” That Will Reshape US Energy

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 10:07 PM

In a deal that would be transformational for the US energy sector, and spark another shale revolution, the WSJ writes that US supermajor, the largest US energy E&P and formerly the world’s largest company by market cap, Exxon – the company that according to the Big Guy made more money than God in 2021, is closing in on a deal to shale giant Pioneer Natural Resources, a blockbuster takeover that could be worth roughly $60 billion and reshape the U.S. oil industry.

The deal, which the WSJ first leaked back in April and has described as “seismic” (metaphorically but also literally, ha ha) could be sealed in the coming days, though it is still possible there won’t be one, sources told the Journal.

After posting a record profit in 2022, and flush with cash, Exxon has been exploring options that would push it deeper into West Texas shale. An acquisition of Pioneer, with a market cap of around $50 billion, would be Exxon’s largest deal since its megamerger with Mobil in 1999, and would give Exxon a dominant position in the oil-rich Permian Basin, a region the oil giant has said is integral to its growth plans.

Such a deal would not only eclipse the U.S. oil industry’s most recent blockbuster, Occidental’s 2019 acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum for about $38 billion, and top Exxon’s 2010 purchase of XTO Energy for more than $30 billion, it would make Exxon the second most important energy company in the world after Saudi Aramco.

It would also be a legacy-shaping move for Exxon CEO Darren Woods, whose tenure at the company has seen its peaks and valleys.

Woods, an Exxon-lifer who became CEO in 2017, initially promised to dramatically grow Exxon’s oil production only to see his plans felled by the pandemic. An oil-market collapse in 2020 led to Exxon’s first annual loss in decades—more than $22 billion. It lost a historic proxy fight in 2021 to investment firm Engine No. 1, which excoriated Exxon’s finances and argued it had no long-term strategy.

And yet, without any handouts from the Biden admin unlike so many of its unionized corporate peers, Exxon rebounded to a record profit of $55.7 billion last year, propelled by soaring global demand for oil and gas as economies reopened. Exxon has used its prolific cash flows to reward investors with buybacks and dividends and pledged disciplined spending, though many wondered whether the company would dip into its coffers for a megadeal in the oil patch.

We now know the answer. The acquisition marks Woods’s second significant acquisition, coming only a few months after Exxon scooped up CO2 pipeline operator Denbury for $4.9 billion. It would add vast swaths of West Texas acreage considered the core of the U.S. shale boom.

As the WSJ notes, Pioneer’s acreage in the Midland Basin (the eastern portion of the Permian Basin, which straddles West Texas and New Mexico) is one of the largest collections of fertile oil land in the U.S., and the company holds one of the largest numbers of untapped drilling locations of any Permian player, analysts have said. In the wake of the pandemic, Pioneer snapped up two other large Permian operators, Parsley Energy and DoublePoint Energy, for a combined $11 billion in 2021.

The tie-up will presage a wave of consolidation among shale companies. The industry has shifted from the rapid growth it pursued for more than a decade to a mature business underpinned by fiscal restraint and hefty investor payouts. But producers are contending with dwindling drilling locations. Drilling for new oil discoveries has fallen out of favor with investors, leaving many companies with few options other than to acquire rivals to extend their runway.

Producers have deep coffers at their disposal to pursue deals after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year sent global prices soaring to more than $127 a barrel. Prices have retreated and been volatile since then. Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer could be the first of a series of deals in the Permian, which contains shale wells that produce rapidly and don’t bind companies to decadeslong megaprojects that have fallen out of favor with some investors who fear a future decline in oil demand.

The best news, however, is that Exxon just slapped the progressive lobby in its sanctimonious face. While environmentalists, lawmakers and others have hoped oil and gas companies would invest their record profits into green energy, that won’t be happening. And while Woods has pledged Exxon will invest $17 billion through 2027 in cutting the company’s carbon emissions and building a business that would help other companies reduce theirs too, investing in areas including carbon capture, biofuels and lithium mining, all that the shrewd CEO is doing is getting to the front of the line of the government’s green handouts.

The bottom line: Exxon’s move to purchase Pioneer, even after its acquisition of Denbury, the CO2 pipeline operator, signals the company is still primarily planning to lean on its traditional oil-and-gas business for decades.

That said, nothing is guaranteed in the energy sector which together with crypto, has emerged as the most hated industry of the so-called Democrats. In 2020, when the price of oil collapsed, and when many were doubting that Exxon would avoid bankruptcy, it subsequently emerged (again via the WSJ) that Exxon was considering a merger with Chevron, the energy sector’s 2nd largest company. Back then, talks between Exxon and Chevron were preliminary and yielded no result.

Then again, if Exxon manages to become not only the biggest it has ever been but also a cash flow machine and the world’s 2nd most important energy company under a Democratic administration, one can only imagine what will happen in 13 months time when the senile teleprompter reader is finally kicked out.

end

Russia lifts ban on seaborne diesel exports

(OilPrice.com)

Russia Lifts Ban On Seaborne Diesel Exports

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 07:14 AM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of Oilprice.com

Russia lifted on Friday the ban on most of its diesel exports, two weeks after announcing export restrictions on diesel and gasoline to curb soaring domestic prices.

The Russian government said in a statement on Friday that as part of additional measures to keep the domestic fuel market stable, it is lifting the ban on exports of diesel delivered to seaports by pipeline, provided that the diesel producer supplies at least 50% of the diesel to the domestic market.

The ban on gasoline exports stays, for now.

As part of the measures announced on Friday, Russia also slapped very high export duties on fuel resellers to discourage companies that don’t produce the fuel themselves but buy it on the domestic market from exporting the fuels once the ban is lifted.

The government also restored in full subsidies to refineries to compensate them for the difference between fuel prices in Russia and outside Russia, with the intent to encourage refiners to sell fuel on the domestic market.

Two weeks ago, Russia surprised the markets by announcing a temporary ban on exports of gasoline and diesel to stabilize domestic fuel prices amid soaring crude prices and a weak Russian ruble. Diesel and gasoline exports were temporarily banned to all countries except for four former Soviet states—Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Since the EU embargo on imports of Russian fuel came into force in early February, Russia has diverted most of its diesel exports – previously going to the EU – to Turkey, the Middle East, North and West Africa, and Brazil in South America.

The ban affected those exports and analysts have said they don’t expect a prolonged ban on diesel shipments, because of Russia’s limited storage capacity which, once full, could force refiners to cut processing rates.

Just yesterday, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would keep the ban on exports of diesel and gasoline “as long as needed” and no specific deadlines for lifting the export restrictions have been set.

END

trouble for our LNG users especially Europe

(zerohedge)

Strike Threats Reemerge At Australian Chevron LNG Plants As Talks Falter

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 11:30 AM

Workers at two natural gas plants owned by Chevron in Australia could announce plans to restart strikes as early as next week after the energy company “reneged” on pay and conditions demands in a new labor contract. The potential plan to resume strikes comes weeks after the unions ended a multi-week labor action after Australia’s labor market regulator mediated a settlement between both parties.

On Thursday, Offshore Alliance, a partnership between two local unions, alleged Chevron walked back an agreement recommended by Australia’s labor market regulator that ended the strikes at the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG projects in late September.

“Chevron have reneged on the commitment they gave to the Fair Work Commission to incorporate the FWC’s Recommendations into the Chevron EBA’s for the Wheatstone and Gorgon facilities,” the union wrote in a statement on Facebook.

Bloomberg spoke with one union official, who requested anonymity because the talks were private and said workers met Thursday to approve plans to restart the strikes. They said the union might notify Chevron of a strike as early as Monday.

Meanwhile, Chevron told Bloomberg it has “consistently and meaningfully engaged in an effort” to formalize a labor contract with the unions.

In September, strikes at Gorgon and Wheatstone plants – which accounted for 7% of global LNG supply last year (rivals Qatar as the world’s largest exporter of LNG) – did not dent exports but sparked volatility in NatGas markets over a potentially prolonged labor action that could have resulted in dwindling supply across Europe and Asia.

When strike risks first flourished in August, the benchmark front-month EU Natgas futures jumped by as much as 40%. Traders are closely watching the developments in Australia, though futures remained muted on Friday. Any confirmation of strikes resuming next week will send EU NatGas prices higher.

Europe is on the cusp of the heating season, as winter in the Northern Hemisphere is only a few short months away. The good news, so far, is weather reports forecasting mild weather while NatGas storage facilities on the continent are 96% full – well above average for this time of year.

Europe has become increasingly susceptible to supply disruptions after it slashed imports of cheap Russian pipeline NatGas for overseas supplies. And this only means it now has to compete with China, which is now making LNG purchases ahead of winter.

END

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0558 UP 0.013

USA/ YEN 149.03 UP .560 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2204 UP 0.0017

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3722 UP .0015 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 15 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED

Hang Seng CLOSED UP 272.11 PTS OR 1.58%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.36% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 272.11 PTS OR 1.55%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.36%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 80.69 PTS OR 0.26%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1821.40

silver:$21.10

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 106,08 UP 1 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.

FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.622% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.803% UP 0 AND 0//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.020 UP 3 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.93 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8910 UP 2 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0564 UP 0.0017 or 17 basis points

USA/Japan: 149.23 UP 0.769 OR YEN DOWN 77 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2213 UP 0.0025 OR 25 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0011 OR 11 BASIS pts to 1.3694

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (XX) …XXX

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3046)

TURKISH LIRA: 27.63 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.803…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.795% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.952 UP 7 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.079 UP 5 BASIS PTS.

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 44.84 POINTS or 0.60%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 155.96 PTS OR 1.03%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 66.19 PTS OR 0.95%

Spain IBEX UP 71.80 PTS OR 0.78%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 309.24 PTS OR 1.12%

WTI Oil price 82.57 12: EST

Brent Oil: 84.13 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 100.51; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 10//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.8910 UP 2 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.6435 UP 10 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0594 UP 0.0048 OR 48 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2248 UP .0062 or 62 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6365% UP 6 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .798%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.29 UP 0.821 //YEN DOWN 82 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3657 DOWN .0050 CDN dollar UP 50 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 82.88

Brent OIL: 84.54

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 4.781%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 4.941%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 5 PTS AT 5.079 %

USA dollar index: 105.77 DOWN 31 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.61 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 100.41 UP 0 AND 10/100 roubles

GOLD 1830.30

SILVER: 21.54

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 287,95 PTS OR 0.87%

NASDAQ UP 250.02 PTS OR 1.70%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 17,32 DOWN 1.17 PTS (6.33)%

GLD: $169.70 UP 0.87 OR 0.52%

SLV/ $19.73 UP 0.48 OR 2.49%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Big Squeeze Saves Stocks From Bond Bloodbath

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 04:00 PM

‘Hard’ data collapsed further this week with ‘soft’ data staying near cycle highs as today’s jobs data offered something for everyone with stalling wage growth (yay, we beat inflation), a jump in job gains (yay, growth and a soft landing), but a scratch or two below the surface of the 6-signa headline beat and things are not so pretty after all…

Source: Bloomberg

Financial Conditions continued to tighten aggressively this week, having turned after the July FOMC and now near the tightest it has been during this cycle…

Source: Bloomberg

Today saw a hawkish shift in rate-change expectations but on the week, 2023’s curve moved higher (slightly higher chances of more hikes) and 2024’s curve was flat to slightly lower (modest chance of more cuts)…

Source: Bloomberg

US stocks were bolstered in morning trading by the largest buy imbalance since mid-July and short cover. Momentum can beget more upside momentum in stocks.

Around 1140ET a massive buy program hit and smashed stocks higher…

Source: Bloomberg

At the same time, the ‘most shorted’ stocks basket also went vertical…

Source: Bloomberg

By the end of the week, thanks to today’s meltup, Nasdaq ended significantly higher on the week (along with the S&P). The Dow ended the week marginally lower while Small Caps lagged 2% in the red…

Tech and Healthcare were the only sectors green on the week with Energy the ugliest horse in the glue factory…

VIX didn’t even make it to 20 this morning as payrolls hit and stocks and bonds dumped. And then it just collapsed down to bear 17 the figure….

One big options trader potentially had a bad day. Chatter was a large VIX Call buyer stepped in early this morning ahead of the payrolls print, betting on a blowout number…

They got the blowout number, and for a split second things looked good, then everything reversed lower

And the aggressive positioning and reversal can be seen in SpotGamma’s HIRO indicator as the trader was forced to unwind his calls at a loss…

Still, at least he wasn’t long bonds this week!

Bonds were clubbed like a baby seal this week, most notably the long-end, but today’s chaotic reversal put a little lipstick on the bond pig…

Source: Bloomberg

It all had a very technical feel with yields spiking on the payrolls print and running stops from earlier in the week before collapsing back lower…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s30s) bear steepened most of the week, surging back up to a key level… next stop ‘un-inverted’

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended higher on the week, even with today’s pump-and-dump…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was its usual chaotic self this week, but ended higher (Friday to Friday), back above 28k…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold (spot) ended lower on the week, despite today’s bounce…

Source: Bloomberg

Ugly week for the energy complex with WTI puking down to a $81 handle intraday – 6-week lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Goldman notes that The 60bp increase in 10-year Treasury yields this year is starting to have an impact on stock valuations as the S&P 500 is now down about 7% from the 2023 high it hit back in late July. But higher rates don’t just impact how much you pay for a company. Higher rates can also weigh on the amount of money a company earns…

…and as the chart above shows , this year, S&P 500 companies are staring down the biggest increase in borrowing costs since 2006.

Making 5%-plus lending money to the US government certainly raises the bar for the level of corporate performance needed to attract investors…

Source: Bloomberg

…TINA’s not back yet.

EARLY MORNING TRADING// phony jobs report

a 6 sigma beat and they believe this crap?

Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Puke After ‘Good’ Jobs Data

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 09:03 AM

A 6-sigma beat of expectations in non-farm payrolls has sparked chaos across asset classes this morning.

Rate-change expectations have shifted hawkishly higher…

And treasury yields are surging – up around 10-15bps across the entire curve…

2Y bounced off close to 5.00%…

Equity futures immediately puked lower, led by Nasdaq…

The dollar is spiking…

…and gold is dumping again…

Will all this kneejerk action hold? Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir is doubtful:

“expect, as the day goes on, for many in the markets to question the veracity of this report and for the early losses in bonds and stocks to be dramatically reduced, if not finish the day and the week in the green!”

Nothing would surprise us less

end

the real truth behind the numbers:

Inside Today’s Jobs Report: 885,000 Full-Time Jobs Lost, 1.127 Million Part-Time Jobs Added

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 11:45 AM

After last month’s stunning payrolls report, when in our post-mortem we revealed not only a year full of monthly downward data revisions, but also collapse in full-time jobs and surge in part-time jobs, as well as also the worst unadjusted August payrolls since the great recession, we thought that nothing could shock us any more. And then we got the September jobs report.

We won’t spend too much time dissecting the report since regular readers are all too aware of the same old “upward goalseeking” tactics used by the BLS, so here are the highlights.

First, the 336K jump in headline payrolls – the biggest since January – was stunning when considering that it was not only above the highest Wall Street estimate but was a 6-sigma beat to expectations.

How is it possible to get such an outlier print to not only trends but expectations? Let’s try to answer that question.

If, as the BLS claims, in September the jobs market suddenly reversed a year of declines, surely there will be some qualitative validations to this quantitative outlier, right? Unfortunately, looking through the supporting evidence we don’t find any justification to the BLS exuberance.

Let’s start with the Household survey: here instead of a number anywhere close to the 336K jobs gained (as the far less accurate Establishment survey reports), the number of newly employed workers was just 86K, the lowest since May, and the second lowest of 2023!

And since the number of unemployed workers also rose to 6.360 million, the highest number since January 2022, the unemployment rate was sticky at 3.8%, and refused to drop to 3.7% as consensus had expected.

How about the Establishment survey? Well, here too, things stink. Yes, the headline surge was great, but the question here is how much of that was purely seasonals.

Consider what Vanda Research FX trader Viraj Patel noted earlier: the official adjusted data showed this Leisure and Hospitality added a whopping +96k jobs. But unadjusted data showed that the sector lost 466k jobs in Sep. This means that the unadjusted private sector payrolls was -399k!

Wait, if unadjusted total payrolls rose by 585K and yet private payrolls dropped by 399K, that means that… you got it: in September, all of the unadjusted jobs came from – drumroll – the government, which added a whopping 984K jobs (mostly teachers).

Translation: for yet another month all the strength in the Establishment was thanks to seasonals and various plugs that made the total number much stronger.

And now, let’s turn again to the much more detailed and accurate Household Survey, where we find the BLS back to its old tricks again.

First, as we pointed out earlier, despite the alleged quantitative surge, the quality of the jobs was anything but good. In fact, looking at the infamous table A-9 of the employment report, reveals that in September, a seasonally adjusted breakdown of jobs shows that part-time workers accounted for the entire increase, rising by 151K; as for full-time workers? Well, for yet another month, this number dropped, sliding by 22K in September.

Indeed, as shown in the chart below, while part-time workers rose for the third consecutive month to 27.336 million,and the highest since January, full-time workers have decline for three straight months, and at 134.167 million, this was the lowest number going back to February!

But hold on, you say, why use Seasonally Adjusted number when we already noted above that there continue to be chronic issues with the BLS’ seasonal adjustments in the post-covid era. True, so let’s use unadjusted numbers instead. What do we get?

Well, we get the following whopper: in September, the number of unadjusted full-time workers collapsed by 885K. This was the biggest monthly drop since – drumroll- April 2020 when the economy was shut down!

And if full-time workers plunged, that must mean that part-timers exploded, right? Why yes, they did: by 1.127 million in one month to be precise, and at 27.109 million the number of part-time workers was the highest since April.

Finally, let’s not forget the number of multiple jobholders: those unlucky souls which have to work not one but two (or more) jobs to make ends meet under Bidenomics. Also, multiple jobholders (which are measured by the Household Survey) are double, and triple- counted when it comes to the Establishment Survey. So how did they do in September? Well, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the number increased by 123K to 8.151 million, the highest since January 2020. As for the much more accurate, unadjusted number, well that soared from 7.778 million to 8.146 million, an increase of 368K, or more than all the 336K payrolls reported by the establishment survey.

In other words, all of the job gains in September were either from part-time workers or multiple jobholders forced to get another job in addition to their current one, and thus be counted by the BLS as two distinct jobs (or more). One final observation on the multiple jobholders: in September, the subset of multiple jobholders who held both a primary and secondary full-time job just hit an all time high.

Visually, this is what September’s “stunning” jobs report really looked like.

Source for everything: BLS, but one needs to do some actual work to get a sense of what is really going on.

end

TUCKER CARLSON..

end

II USA DATA

Jobs Shock: September Payrolls Unexpectedly Soar By 336K, Biggest Jump Since January And 6-Sigma Beat

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 08:47 AM

The Biden administration has really outdone itself.

With everyone – even the most hardened bulls – expecting the September jobs report to be not only the weakest of 2023 but to presage a big drop in future payrolls data, moments ago the BLS reported that in September the US added a whopping 336K jobs, the highest monthly increase since January…

… and not only double the consensus estimate of 170K, but above the highest sellside estimate of 250K!

In fact, at 336K vs a median forecast of 170K, today’s print was the first 6-sigma beat of expectations in a long time.

Furthermore, having become the butt of all data goalseeking jokes in recent months after revising every single month in 2023 lower, the BLS decided to show people who is boss and revised not only August but also July higher: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 79,000, from +157,000 to +236,000, and the change for August was revised up by 40,000, from +187,000 to +227,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 119,000 higher than previously reported.

Looking at the unemployment rate, things here were not quite so good, with the rate unchanged at 3.8% from last month, above expectations of a modest drop to 3.7%, as Black unemployment increased while Hispanic unemp dropped.

Meanwhile wage growth continued to cool, and in September average hourly earnings increased 0.2%, below the 0.3% expected, and resulted in a 4.2% increase YoY, down from 4.3% in August…

… as a result of a big bump in lower paying jobs.

Developing.

end

Many question as they should the veracity of the jobs report

(Peter Tchir)

Academy Securities: Expect For Many To Question The Veracity Of This Report

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 09:03 AM

A 6-sigma beat of expectations in non-farm payrolls has sparked chaos across asset classes this morning.

As Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir commented: “What a “Weird” Report”

The headline number is shockingly good!

336k jobs created, PLUS 119k of upward revisions! Wow!

But things get a little weird from there:

Average hourly earnings stayed at 0.2% (2.4% annualized) and even the annual level came in lower than expectations at 4.2%. Given the strength of the job market (according to the Establishment data) and the barrage of “strike” headlines, that seems somewhat surprising.
Average hours worked remained unchanged at a moderate 34.4 (would expect that to have been stronger last month and this month, given the alleged jobs that were created in the Establishment Survey).
The unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%, as the Household survey showed decline in full-time jobs for the 3rd month in a row. Total jobs were positive for the Household survey, but driven by an increase in part-time jobs (which doesn’t seem overly consistent with a blow out jobs report).
Survey response rates seem to continue to decline (according to the BLS, for the June surveys only 41.7% of potential respondents, responded on the Current Employment Statistics Survey. Which is way better than the 31.9% response rate for JOLTS. When less than 50% of the ticket holders show up for an event, how good is the event? (or in this case, the data?)
Maybe the hiring is that good, but it didn’t show up ADP, which I suspect, increasingly, ADP has better data than the BLS as it is more dependent on actual, ADP data, than mediocre response rates to surveys.

The instant reaction was hawkish and rate-change expectations have shifted notably higher…

And treasury yields are surging – up around 10-15bps across the entire curve…

2Y bounced off close to 5.00%…

Equity futures immediately puked lower, led by Nasdaq…

The dollar is spiking…

…and gold is dumping again…

Will all this kneejerk action hold? Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir is doubtful:

“Difficult to fight the algos which are going to drive yields higher based on the headline number, but expect, as the day goes on, for many in the markets to question the veracity of this report and for the early losses in bonds and stocks to be dramatically reduced, if not finish the day and the week in the green! “

Nothing would surprise us less.

end

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Starbucks closing 7 San Francisco locations amid huge crime wave.

(zerohedge)

Starbucks Closing 7 San Francisco Locations Amid Crime Wave (But Swears It’s Unrelated)

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 06:40 PM

In July of 2022, Starbucks announced the closure of 16 profitable locations due to dangerous incidents involving drug use and “other disruptions” in cafes. In a leaked video, former interim CEO Howard Schultz said that the US “has become unsafe,” and that Starbucks is a “window to America.”

Now, the company is closing seven locations in San Francisco. And while they didn’t cite the explosion in crime in the Golden Gate City (and no leaked videos to shed light), the move comes amid a shocking survey that found roughly 97% of San Francisco’s restaurants have experienced some form of graffiti or property crime in the past month.

“Each year as a standard course of business, we evaluate the store portfolio to determine where we can best meet our community and customers’ needs,” a spokesperson told the NY Post on Wednesday. “This includes opening new locations, identifying stores in need of investment or renovation, exploring locations where an alternative format is needed and, in some instances, re-evaluating our footprint.”

Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the spring of 2020, some 40 retail stores have ditched the once-bustling Union Square section of downtown San Francisco — in addition to the dozens of others that have pulled up stakes from surrounding regions of the city.

Nordstrom, CB2, Anthropologie, Whole Foods, Old Navy, Saks Off 5th, Office Depot, Athleta, Abercrombie & Fitch, Disney, Marshall’s, H&M, and Gap have either closed stores within San Francisco city limits or announced plans to do so. -NY Post

In June, a study by personal finance website WalletHub ranked San Francisco as the worst-run city in the country, which is no surprise considering that a commercial real estate crisis is unfolding in the downtown area as building owners are defaulting on properties. Crime is out of control, forcing businesses to flee. And Democrats who control the town appear to have no interest in enforcing law and order.

What’s more, SF office space has plummeted in value, while Moody’s has lowered the city’s credit rating outlook to negative amid a $780 million budget shortfall due to shrinking tax revenues.

And now, the city’s homeless residents have seven fewer places to call home.

END

Tesla slashes Model 3 and Model Y prices again

(zerohedge)

“Midnight Massacre”: Tesla Slashes Model 3, Model Y Prices Yet Again

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 08:25 AM

If ever there was a shred of doubt about Elon Musk’s intentions to move more volume at lower prices for Tesla this year, those thoughts should officially be put to bed.

Tesla shares are dipping slightly lower on Friday morning after it was reported late Thursday night that Tesla would be making even more price cuts to its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.

The new cuts to model prices are as follows:

Model 3 Now $38,990 From $40,240
Model 3 Performance Now $50,990 From $53,240
Model 3 Long Range Price Cut To $45,990 From $47,240
Model Y Long Range Now $48,490 From $50,490
Model Y Performance Now $52,490 From $54,490

So far, the price cuts have been a winning formula for Tesla, allowing the automaker to remain at the tip of the demand spear in a global EV race that is now beyond super-saturated with competition.

The price cuts come just days after Tesla missed its modest Q3 delivery estimates. In Q3, the company delivered 435,059 vehicles and produced 430,488 vehicles, missing consensus delivery estimates of 456,722.

The quarter marked the first sequential drop in total deliveries since Q2 2022. Prior to that, the last sequential drop in total deliveries occurred in early 2020, as the chart below shows.

The company acknowledged the miss and chalked it up to downtime, stating in its press release the “sequential decline in volumes was caused by planned downtimes for factory upgrades, as discussed on the most recent earnings call.”

CEO Elon Musk had said on the company’s last conference call that it would “continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year.” However, he also warned about production numbers dwindling due to “summer shutdowns for a lot of factory upgrades.”

Analyst Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research called the price cuts a “Midnight Price Cut Massacre” in a note out Friday morning, and suggested that the Q3 miss was not due to line upgrades, but rather due to lack of demand.

“Tesla is already resorting to margin-destroying price cuts just five days into the fourth quarter of 2023,” he wrote. “Despite selling only 4,500 more cars than it produced in the third quarter and entering the fourth with a record inventory of 106,000 cars, it’s clear that Tesla’s issues rest mainly with lackluster demand.”

“This means to hit its goal of 1.8mn cars produced in 2023, Tesla may have to sell those cars at negative net income margins,” he continued.

Recall, back in mid-September, Goldman had both predicted that the company could lower prices further and questioned whether or not the constant price cuts from the EV leader could take its toll on the company’s bottom line. As a result, they lowered estimates.

Analyst Mark Delaney wrote in a note in September: “We believe that Tesla could further lower prices in 2024 to support higher volumes, which we believe will mitigate the EPS benefit from cost reductions.”

The note continued: “We lower our 2023 and 2024 EPS estimates for Tesla, mostly on lower ASPs and, in turn, auto gross margin ex-credit assumptions (driven by lower prices for S/X and, to a lesser extent, Model Y, and partly offset by higher Model 3 ASP assumptions).”

Goldman called the company’s price cuts into question, noting they could have a negative effect on Tesla’s bottom line, Teslarati reported:

“Tesla materially reduced S/X pricing on 9/1 by 15-19%, and reduced Model Y pricing in China in mid-August (and has been discounting inventory on hand in other markets like the US this quarter). However, Tesla raised pricing on the Model 3 with the refreshed version (Highland) that is now being sold in Europe and China.”

But it wasn’t all criticism over price cuts. Canadian VC and self-labeled “SPAC Jesus” Chamath Palihapitiya was out over Labor Day weekend praising the speed and aggressiveness of Tesla’s price cuts, which ultimately do seem to be moving metal.

“Some companies cut prices, but most keep prices flat or increase them,” he added. “Some companies improve products quickly. But no one has actually given you more for less on such a big ticket purchase so frequently.”

Recall, we also noted in August that Tesla had cut the price of its Model S Plaid in China by 19%.

END

Chapter ll filings by businesses soar 61% so far this year

(Howland/RetailDive)

Chapter 11 Filings By Businesses Soar 61% So Far This Year

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 09:15 AM

By Daphne Howland of RetailDive,

Updates to Retail Dive’s bankruptcy tracker have been numerous in 2023 so far, with the all-important holiday quarter left to go.

A wide array of U.S. businesses have struggled this year. In the first nine months of 2023, commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies have soared 61% year over year to 4,553, according to Epiq Bankruptcy, which provides U.S. bankruptcy filing data.
Small business filings in that time rose 41% to 1,419, according to the research, released by Epiq and the American Bankruptcy Institute. In all, considering every type of bankruptcy, filings in the commercial sector rose 17% to 18,680.
After recent declines thanks in part to pandemic-era financial support, consumer filings also rose this year, up 17% to 313,458, per the report.

High-profile retail filings in the first nine months of the year have included David’s Bridal, Bed Bath & Beyond and Party City, and 11 more retailers may be on the brink.

While the numbers of both commercial and individual filings remain below pre-pandemic levels, the increase so far this year is a sign that challenges, including expanding debt, are building, according to American Bankruptcy Institute Executive Director Amy Quackenboss.

“Struggling individuals and companies have an established lifeline through bankruptcy to help steady themselves amid rising interest rates, inflation and increased borrowing costs,” Quackenboss said in a statement.

Many retailers began the year with a keen focus on cost cuts. Several, including healthy ones like Amazon, have slashed budgets through significant layoffs.

Consumer distress is also visible, in rising credit card debt and increasing delinquencies on store credit cards, reported by several retailers in recent months. In the second quarter, U.S. consumers’ collective balance rose to a record $1.03 trillion dollars, according to the New York Federal Reverse Bank’s quarterly report on household debt. That, coupled with the added burden of student loan payments that will resume for many this month, are leading many analysts to temper expectations for holiday sales.

end

Ford

Ford electric F 150 sales plunge 46%. Tesla is killing them with aggressive price cutting. The UAW strike is also killing Ford

(zerohedge)

Ford Electric F-150 Sales Plunge 46% Amid “Quality Checks”

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 12:25 PM

When it rains, it pours.

As the UAW strike continues to pressure Detroit’s “Big 3” and while Elon Musk continues to suffocate EV manufacturers with Tesla’s aggressive price cutting, Ford is apparently dealing with additional issues involving its F-150 electric pickup.

Ford announced a 46% decline in third-quarter sales of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck, attributing the downturn to a factory shutdown for expansion and delays due to “quality checks.”

The automaker closed its Dearborn, Michigan, facility for six weeks to increase its annual production capacity to 150,000 trucks. Since resuming operations in early August, Ford has withheld deliveries for quality evaluations, although specific reasons were not disclosed, Bloomberg reported this week.

In an effort to compete with Tesla Inc., Ford reduced the prices of its Lightning models by up to 17% in July. This comes as both companies grapple with a slowing rate of EV sales growth in the United States.

Despite challenges with the Lightning, Ford saw an overall 15% increase in its EV sales for the third quarter, reaching 20,962 units. This boost was largely driven by a 43% surge in sales of the Mustang Mach-E, which benefited from a factory expansion in Mexico earlier this year.

Said Deep, a Ford spokesman, said in an email to Bloomberg: “We are conducting additional quality checks at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center, which has delayed delivery since we restarted the plant with the capacity increase. We expect vehicle flow to improve across the fourth quarter.”

Erich Merkle, Ford’s sales analyst, added: “This is similar to the capacity actions we took on Mach-E earlier in the year. Mach-E is now reporting a record quarter.”

Recall we published a piece by The Epoch Times back in August 2023 wherein Ford’s CEO, Jim Farley, admitted to having a “reality check” after taking the company’s F-150 on a road trip.

“Charging has been pretty challenging,” Mr. Farley said in a video on X, formerly known as Twitter. “It was a really good reality check of the challenges of what our customers go through and the importance of fast charging and what we’re going to have to do to improve the charging experience.”

The road trip came after a Canadian man told news outlets that he was forced to abandon his Ford electric truck after suffering charging failures during a road trip. Dalbir Bala of La Salle, Manitoba, said he left his Lightning in Minnesota last month after he couldn’t charge its battery at two different stations.

He then continued his drive in a rented gas-powered vehicle instead, he said. His wife and three children joined him for the trip to Wisconsin and Chicago, setting out with three scheduled stops to recharge on the trip.

“It was really a nightmare frustration for us,” Mr. Bala told CBC News.

Does this leave the door open perfectly for Tesla’s launch of the Cybertruck?

end

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…

the state of affairs inside the uSA..

Victor Davis Hanson: Our Establishment’s Alternate Realities

THURSDAY, OCT 05, 2023 – 07:40 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

One common denominator that explains why previously successful societies implode is their descent into fantasies. A collective denial prevents even discussion of existential threats and their solutions.

Something like that is happening in the United States. Eight million illegal immigrants have entered the United States by the deliberate erasure of the southern border.

Apparently, the Biden administration sees some unstated advantage in destroying U.S. immigration law and welcoming in would-be new constituents.

Yet, the more the millions arrive, the more Joe Biden and his Homeland Security director Alejandro Mayorkas flat out lie that “the border is secure.”

They both live in a world of make-believe, passed off to the American people as reality.

And the more the Americans are lied to that the border is secure, the more they poll—currently 77 percent—that it is not.

Biden apparently has reversed course and begun using the former pejorative “Bidenomics” as a term of pride.

He now praises this three-year effort to borrow $6-7 trillion, and spike interest rates threefold to 7% on home mortgages—even as prices on essentials like food and fuel have spiked 25-30% since he entered office.

The more that Biden brags about what he did to the economy, the more people poll—over 60%—dissatisfaction with his alternate reality of “Bidenomics.”

Do we remember the humiliation in August 2021 in Afghanistan?

The more Gen. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and Joe Biden assured that the American military presence was stable, the more swiftly it crumbled and descended into the worst mass flight of an American army since Vietnam.

Consider natural gas and oil. The Biden administration waged war on both by canceling pipelines, drilling on federal lands, and entire oil fields.

When the price soared and the 2022 midterms neared, Biden suddenly begged formerly shunned illiberal regimes like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela to pump all the hated oil they could to lower the price.

A desperate Biden drained much of the strategic petroleum reserve—he has yet to refill it—simply to lower the price of gasoline and thus win voters back to the Democratic Party.

When the midterms passed, Biden resumed his attack on once bad, then good, and now bad again fossil fuels—at least until the 2024 election.

Stranger still is the denial of the current crime wave in our major cities. Predators and thugs have turned once iconic downtowns into either war zones or ghost towns or both.

Smash-and-grab swarming of stores and matter-of-fact shoplifting are destroying commerce in our major cities.

Unsustainable stores either leave or shut down. Communities who vote for politicians who defund the police blame the stores for leaving—but not the criminals whose brazen thefts made it impossible to do business in the inner city.

Now modern-day pirates with impunity storm, sink, and rob boats of all kinds in the Oakland marina and estuary.

Leftwing journalists and activists, and even Democratic politicians, who all supported defunding the police, now cannot escape the resulting street violence and unleashed murderous predations.

Everyone knows the culprit is the post-George Floyd effort—with Biden administration complicity—to defund the police, end cash bail, institutionalize catch-and-release of criminals, and show more sympathy toward victimizers than victims.

Yet neither state nor local officials nor Joe Biden himself even admits to a crime wave. The more the public is attacked and avoids major downtowns, the more it polls furor over the crime wave.

The more our officials, in gaslighting style, claim such alarm is all in our collective heads, the more they themselves are attacked by the very criminals their policies empowered.

Sometimes the fantasies extend to the trivial. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Penn) for months has dressed like an utter slob while on the Senate floor. As a gesture of approval, Democrats junked the dress code so he could wear his sloppy cut-offs and hoodie.

Americans were to assume his slovenly costume was normal apparel—and they were hypercritical for thinking otherwise.

Recently Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) pulled a Senate fire alarm to disrupt and delay a vote on continuing the funding of the government. But he got caught on a Capitol surveillance video committing the crime.

Bowman whined that he got confused. He preposterously claimed by pulling the alarm he thought he was opening a door to go vote.

All of that was pure fantasy. The alarm was clearly marked. A sign in front of the door warned not to enter. And the door itself was placarded with cautions that any attempt to open it would set off emergency alarms.

No matter. Bowman assumed by calling his critics “Nazis” and using the race card, he could invent a virtual reality.

Despite our epidemic of fantasy, there remains reality.

And we will soon rediscover it all too soon.

end

They will be toast soon

(zerohedge)

“Unsustainable Business”: Lucid Loses $338,000 Per Vehicle As Tesla Price War Heats Up

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 02:25 PM

Shares of Lucid hit record lows in New York this week as concerns mount about ongoing demand woes for its Air electric luxury sedan. A new report reveals Lucid loses a staggering $338k per unit.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, “Lucid may burn $338,000 per vehicle in EBITDA this year, an increase from $325,000 just months ago, demonstrating how its unsustainable business model requires significant scaling and additional funding — likely before 2025.”

Even though Lucid can compete with more prominent brands like Tesla, Mercedes, and Porsche, the real question is whether its largest shareholder, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, will continue funding the troubled EV maker amid a price war sparked by Elon Musk earlier this year.

Lucid will continue to lose money through 2025, adding pressure to its liquidity and access to capital: A warning sign that any economic downturn could accelerate the demise of the money-losing company.

In May, EV blog Electrek quoted Tesla owner Elon Musk, who, at the time, believed an EV bankruptcy wave was nearing:

It’s going to be a challenging 12 months. I want to be realistic about this. Tesla is not immune to the global economic environment. The macroeconomics levels are going to be difficult for the next 12 months.

In June, Lordstown Motors filed for bankruptcy. Days ago, Rivian announced plans to raise $1.5 billion in convertible notes to shore up its balance sheet.

Some good news for Lucid: BI said the EV maker “should benefit from the introduction of the Gravity in late 2024 and a potential midsize platform in 2025, yet perhaps its best near-term tool is to consider more supplier and licensing deals like it has done with Aston Martin. Inventory levels are rising due in part to production exceeding deliveries, logistics and higher raw materials, and that is concerning as it may eventually add to price pressures. Lucid’s three-row SUV, the Gravity, is due for deliveries in 2024 and an expected competitor to Tesla’s Model S may start with a price tag about 25% higher than its rival.”

However, Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer at First American Trust, said in an interview, “Lucid is well below the pace needed to hit even 10,000 cars this year, and that’s why they continue to bleed money.”

Braakman added, “The stock will continue to be challenged until they can show that they have made a significant progress in the number of units sold.”

Tesla is winning the EV price war. Lucid’s fate hangs in the balance if the Saudis want to keep funding the money-losing operation.

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE/

end

SWAMP STORIES.

Mayorkas backpedals

(zerohedge)

Mayorkas Furiously Backpedals After Claiming ‘Acute & Immediate Need’ For Border Wall

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 02:01 PM

Update (Fri, 1400ET): We had a feeling this was coming…

Less than two days after reports emerged that Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said, in an official document, that there is “an acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers” along the US border- while the Biden administration waived 26 federal laws to build more border wall amid a record flood of immigrants, the DHS boss has furiously backpedaled.

“There is no new administration policy with respect to the border wall,” said Mayorkas in a statement.

“From day one, this Administration has made clear that a border wall is not the answer. That remains our position and our position has never wavered. The language in the Federal Register notice is being taken out of context and it does not signify any change in policy whatsoever,” the statement continues.

So… we guess that ‘acute and immediate need’ for a border wall was bullshit?

* * *

This is awkward…

In a stunning reversal of everything that was said over the last 7 years by the left, and just months after the Biden administration was caught selling portions of Trump’s border wall on a government surplus website, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is citing an “acute and immediate need” to waive dozens of federal laws in order to build a border wall in south Texas as the illegal immigration crisis grows utterly out of control.

“The Secretary of Homeland Security has determined, pursuant to law, that it is necessary to waive certain laws, regulations, and other legal requirements in order to ensure the expeditious construction of barriers and roads in the vicinity of the international land border in Starr County, Texas,” reads a notice posted to the U.S. Federal Registry that Fox News obtained.

In light of the surge in illegal immigration, Mayorkas found that there exists an “acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers and roads in the vicinity of the border of the United States in order to prevent unlawful entries into the United States in the project areas.”

No, this is not Babylon Bee.

As Ben Whedon reports at JustTheNews.com, The former president’s campaign team took Mayorkas’s decision as a vindication, telling Fox News that:”

“President Trump is always right. That’s why he built close to 500 miles of powerful new wall on the border and it would have been finished by now. Instead, Crooked Joe Biden turned our country into one giant sanctuary for dangerous criminal aliens.”

In total, Mayorkas plans to waive a total of 26 federal laws to expedite construction.

It’s going to be fun to see the Democrats and their MSM lackeys squirm out of this one…

Does the Biden administration want to remind Latinos that they are not welcome?

Is the Biden administration building a monument to White Supremacy….

Is the Biden administration’s wall “xenophobic and racist”?

There are a million more examples…

These 3 words seem to sum things up perfectly “Too Freaking Late!”

…and cue the “we never said it was racist” or “it was racist because Trump wanted it” narrative spin incoming…

END

10,000 Illegal Immigrants To Arrive Daily At US Border, Warns Mexican President

FRIDAY, OCT 06, 2023 – 02:45 PM

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has warned that the United States will soon see about 10,000 illegal immigrants per day arrive at its border with Mexico.

Such a large number of illegal immigrants are reaching Mexico’s northern border with the United States partly due to abount 6,000 illegal immigrants crossing from Guatemala into Mexico every day for the past week, President Obrador said on Oct. 2, according to The Associated Press. The Mexican president criticized U.S. sanctions on nations such as Cuba and Venezuela, two nationalities that make up a significant portion of the illegal immigrant flow.

On Sept. 29, President Obrador called on the United States to “remove blockades and stop harassing independent and free countries.” There should be “an integrated plan for cooperation so the Venezuelans, Cubans, Nicaraguans, Ecuadorans, Guatemalans, and Hondurans wouldn’t be forced to emigrate,” he said.

He also criticized the United States’ use of funds to support Ukraine in its war against Russia and argued that some of the money sent to Ukraine should be spent on economic development in Latin America.

The Mexican president’s comments come as the country has done little to prevent migrants from getting onto trains headed to the U.S. border.

Moreover, Mexico currently runs a government program that sends buses for migrants in the southern region, transporting thousands of these people to its northern border with the United States.

In the city of Juchitán in Oaxaca state, Mexico, some migrants told Reuters that they were planning on entering the United States using the U.S. government’s CBP One app and then requesting asylum.

CBP One was launched in 2020. In January this year, the Biden administration announced new legal pathways for asylum seekers and other illegal immigrants through the app. Illegal immigrants can now schedule appointments at ports of entry or manned entry points at America’s border with Mexico through CBP One.

According to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), there were 232,972 encounters with illegal immigrants at the southwest land border in August, up from 183,494 in July.

Overall, 2.2 million illegal immigrant encounters have been recorded for fiscal year 2023 until August, on pace to meet or exceed the 2.37 million encounters in fiscal year 2022. In the 2021 fiscal year, the number of encounters was lower at 1.73 million. And in fiscal year 2020, there were only 458,088 encounters.

Illegal Influx Into America

The influx of illegal immigrants has alarmed officials in U.S. border communities. Late last month, the Democrat Mayor of El Paso, Texas, said that the illegal aliens were straining the region’s resources.

“The city of El Paso only has so many resources, and we have come to … a breaking point right now,” El Paso Mayor Oscar Leeser said during a news conference, according to Reuters. More than 2,000 people were seeking asylum every day in El Paso.

In a Sept. 21 post on X, Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott denounced the Biden administration for the migrant crisis facing the United States.

“I officially declared an invasion at our border because of Biden’s policies. We deployed the Texas National Guard, DPS [and] local law enforcement. We are building a border wall, razor wire [and] marine barriers. We are also repelling migrants,” he said.

In a recent interview with MSNBC, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) claimed that the government isn’t deporting enough illegal immigrants who are entering the country and pushed for adopting a stronger stance on the issue against countries such as Mexico.

“Let’s say we get 10,000 people a day, we’re deporting about 1,000 a day. So, you can see the numbers don’t add up there,” he said. “You’ve got to have repercussions at the border, you’ve got to have the other countries, Mexico and the other countries, do more.

“This is very important, 2015, 2019, [illegal immigrant] numbers went down; why? Under Obama and under Trump, why? Because we were able to get the Mexicans to do a lot more and stop them at the southern border with Guatemala. And that’s what history shows. Play defense on their 20-yard line and have real repercussions, and I mean deport people. Otherwise, they’re going to keep coming to the [United States].”

It’s not just at the Mexican border that the United States is facing an influx of illegal immigrants. The situation is getting worse at the northern border with Canada as well.

In the northeastern Swanton Sector, illegal immigrant apprehensions this year alone have exceeded the total of the past decade.

“Over 6,100 apprehensions from 76 different countries in just 11 months, surpassing the last 10 years combined,” Swanton Sector Chief Patrol Agent Robert Garcia said in a Sept. 6 post on X.

“Swanton Sector Agents are resolute and determined to hold the line across our 295 miles of border in northeastern New York, Vermont, [and] New Hampshire.”

In fiscal year 2022, Swanton Sector saw 1,000 apprehensions, up from 365 in fiscal year 2021.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

end

THE KING REPORT

The King Report October 6, 2023 Issue 7091

Independent View of the News

@charliebilello: The US National Debt has now increased by over $2 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended just 4 months ago. https://t.co/lWiHaYW7Ht

Will the U.S. Get Hit With a Recession in 2024?
Forecaster                               Estimated U.S. Recession Probability (Next 12 Months)
Federal Reserve Staff             0%
Yield Curve*                           61%
Economists                              48%
Consumers                              69%
Goldman Sachs                       15%
Bank of America                     35-40%
CEOs**                                  84% (Down from 92% in Q2)
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/united-states-recession-in-2024-economic-forecasts/

Renowned hedge fund operator Hugh Hendry Eclectica (@hendry_hugh): Somebody is insolvent. Volatility everywhere, big move in oil, the long end, unrelenting dollar strength… I just fear people are going down…imagine being long and wrong without a Fed bailout

@zerohedge: “US banks held $5.436 trillion in debt securities… these securities lost $140bn in value during the quarter… Cumulative unrealized losses were $558.4bn in Q2 and have now surpassed the previous peak of $689.9bn in Q3 2022.” – Deutsche Bank
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1709738882529628496?s=02

@Schuldensuehner: Good Morning from Germany, where the construction sector is really crashing. The German PMI Construction Index fell to 39.3 in Sep from 41.5 in Aug, and the lowest level since statistics began.  https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1709837268876165166

US Initial Jobless Claims 207k, 210k expected, 205k prior
Continuing Claims 1.664m, 1.671m consensus, 1.665m prior

ESZs traded lower but sideways during early Nikkei trading. They rallied after 21:00 ET and were briefly positive during the final 90 minutes of Nikkei trading. ESZs commenced a decline after the 1:00 ET Nikkei close that ended about 25 minutes after the 3 ET European opening. An 11-handle rally ended at 4:33 ET. ESZs then sank 17 handles by 5:40 ET. Traders then aggressively bought, ESZs zoomed to a daily high of 4302.00 at 7:03 ET. ESZs sank to 4278.00 after the US Initial Jobless Claims report.

It was time to buy for the Pump & Dump. ESZs jumped to 4299.50 at 9:34 ET. The dump began early; ESZs commenced a tumble that ended with a daily low of 4258.00 at 11:09 ET. The rally for the European close was lackluster and modest; but ESZs (and USZS) rallied after very liberal SF Fed President Daly said the Fed can hold rates steady if labor, prices keep cooling.

The rally ended when Daly added: ‘If inflation stalls or financial conditions loosen, we will need to raise rates further.’ ESZs fell to 4264.75 at 13:09 ET. The afternoon rally began; it persisted until 14:40 ET. ESZs hit 4300.75 at the time and then rolled over. An A-B-C decline into the close developed.

USZs were flat during early Nikkei trading. They rallied moderately after 21:00 ET but quickly went flat again. After China’s 2 ET close, USZs began a decline that took USZs to 11 5/32, -11/32 near 5 ET. After hitting 111 23/32 at 8:03 ET (US cash bond market opens at 8 ET), USZs cratered to a daily low of 110 23/32 at 8:42 ET. After a sharp rebound, USZs rolled over and traded in a wide range until the range tightened considerably after noon ET.

Positive aspects of previous session.
Oil and gasoline declined again

Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks and bonds could not extend Wednesday’s rally

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
When will the entities with severe financial damage be exposed?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4250.41
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4267.13; 4225.91

Girl Scouts announces it is DISCONTINUING ‘extremely popular’ new cookie flavor – just months after its launch sparked viral resale FRENZY that saw sweet treats being sold for up to $200 A BOX – ‘While Raspberry Rally was extremely popular last year, we are taking a pause this season to prioritize supplying our classic varieties,’ said a Girls Scouts spokesperson…  https://t.co/Xkqjeq0z3W

@kevinnbass: Landmark paper shows COVID vaccine has 1/800 severe adverse event rate. Rotavirus vaccine was pulled from market for 1/10,000 adverse events. Swine flu vaccine was pulled for 1/100,000
As far as vaccines go, the COVID vaccine adverse event rate is historically extremely high. https://t.co/vn9nWNFYJK

CDC stops printing COVID-19 vaccination cards: pandemic relic
The cards were once essential to getting into places like restaurants, festivals and bars
https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-stops-printing-covid-19-vaccination-cards-pandemic-relic

@unusual_whales: The SEC has sued Elon Musk in federal court in San Francisco to force try and force him to testify in the agency’s probe into his purchase of Twitter in 2022, per the Bloomberg.

Fed Balance Sheet: -$46.282B, US Treasuries -$27.7B, Loans -$18.976B; Reserves at Fed: -$24.6B
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20231005/

Today – The September Employment Report, released at 8:30 ET, will dictate pre and early NYSE trading. Barring an unusual NFP number, the response to the report should be minor and transitory.

As always, check the NFP seasonal adjustment, the 2-month revision, and compare the Household Report’s “Employed” to NFP. The BLS’s Birth/Death Model has been uneventful for the past few years.

Even the WSJ has recognizes that Team Obama-Biden is fooling with US Employment Reports.

‘Frustrating’ Revisions to Jobs Data Slow Wall Street Trading – WSJ (Pay wall)
A record run of downward revisions to the federal government’s monthly jobs report is discouraging some Wall Street traders from making big bets on the data…
    Each release this year has revised prior reports lower. It’s the first time revisions have been negative every month through July on record, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data dating back to 1979.
    There have been fewer stock trades on the days the jobs report has been released this year than in past years, and swings have been more muted, according to Dow Jones Market Data…
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-10-04-2023/card/revisions-to-jobs-data-slow-wall-street-trading-wb0gAFn6hFKKPz7hC3GG

Traders will play for the Friday rally. ESZs are -3.00 and USZs are -7/32, at 20:30 ET.

Expected economic data: Sept NFP 170k (Whisper # 190k), Mfg 5k, Rate 3.7%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 4.3% y/y, Workweek 34.4, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.8%; Aug Consumer Credit $11.7B

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4429; 100-day MA: 4391; 150-day MA: 4280; 200-day MA: 4206
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,552; 100-day MA: 34,266; 150-day MA: 33,895; 200-day MA: 33,799
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4523.92 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4323.61 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4266.67 triggers a buy signal

Trump allegedly discussed US nuclear subs with foreign national after leaving White House
Trump allegedly discussed the information with an Australian billionaire.
    Months after leaving the White House, former President Donald Trump allegedly discussed potentially sensitive information about U.S. nuclear submarines with a member of his Mar-a-Lago Club — an Australian billionaire who then allegedly shared the information with scores of others, including more than a dozen foreign officials, several of his own employees, and a handful of journalists, according to sources familiar with the matter… (If true, Trump is finished!)
https://abcnews.go.com/US/after-white-house-trump-allegedly-discussed-potentially-sensitive/story

Now that illegal immigration is killing Dems in polling, Team Obama-Biden is building the wall!
Biden administration waives 26 federal laws to allow border wall construction in South Texas
“There is presently an acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers and roads in the vicinity of the border of the United States in order to prevent unlawful entries into the United States in the project areas,” Alejandro Mayorkas, the DHS secretary, stated in the notice…
https://apnews.com/article/border-wall-biden-immigration-texas-rio-grande-147d7ab497e6991e9ea929242f21ceb2

We’re old enough to remember that Dems and the MSM condemned Trump for building the border and they labeled him a ‘racist’ for wanting to halt illegal immigration. What changed? The polls!!!

Fox’s @BillMelugin_: Biden while running for president in 2020: “There will not be another foot of wall constructed on my administration.” Biden’s DHS now: “There is presently an acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers…”…

@RNCResearch: In April, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said a border wall was “off the table”:
“We are not going to construct more wall that costs billions and billions of dollars, that is immovable.”

The Big Guy’s flip-flop on the border wall enraged leftists, including those in the WH. So, Joey Baby tried to extricate himself from the mess by doing what he does best – he fibbed and projected blame.

Biden shifts border-wall-blame to Congress despite waiving 26 fed laws to restart project as migrant crisis batters US – “The money was appropriated for the border wall. I tried to get them to reappropriate, to redirect that money. They didn’t. They wouldn’t,” Biden told reporters in the Oval Office…  https://nypost.com/2023/10/05/biden-says-he-cant-stop-border-wall-construction-blames-congress/

@RNCResearch: “What specific law would the administration be breaking if the funds appropriated for the border wall are not used?” KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: “I’m not a lawyer.” https://t.co/ln0xmULDdg
    “How can you say that [Biden] is not breaking that promise” there would “not be another foot of wall constructed” in his administration? KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: “This was six months ago!” https://t.co/C2bCcuwyrh

@nicksortor” REPORTER: “If the border wall is ineffective, why is the DHS secretary saying that it’s ‘necessary’ to prevent unlawful entries into the United States?” @PressSec: “I have not seen that.”
REPORTER: “It’s in the notice that went out!”  Either this administration is WILDLY incompetent or they’re shameless liars. Which one is it?!  https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1709987332718313972?s=02

@gatewaypundit: Biden Regime Decides to Build Border Wall Segment Two Months after They Sold All of the Trump Border Parts Worth $300 Million for $2 Million

Due to increasing media scrutiny (and an election looming), The Big Guy’s dog ‘Commander’ has been removed from The White House after at least a dozen biting incidents.

@paulsperry_: According to Judicial Watch sources, “President Biden has mistreated his dogs.” Judicial Watch has learned “he has punched and kicked his dogs.”
    Hill sources say BofA, Cathay Bank, JP Morgan and other major banks have until NEXT THURSDAY (Oct. 12) to turn over to impeachment investigators all subpoenaed Biden bank records. Production targets: Hunter Biden, James Biden & Biden family fixer/moneyman Eric Schwerin.

@JoshPower80: Perfect representation of all-things Trump. Here he is complaining that he’s a victim, that he’s been deprived a jury. He gets community noted because the truth is, he could have had a jury but never requested one. He IS a victim, but he’s a victim of his own incompetence.
https://twitter.com/JoshPower80/status/1709983420560896123/photo/1

Deadly crash from 2018 involving Senator Menendez’s wife gets new attention after indictment
Nadine Menendez struck and killed 49-year-old Richard Koop in Bogota, NJ in 2018
    Surveillance video shows the moment Menendez’s vehicle hit Koop… When police arrived, she claimed she was innocent, but said “no” when police asked if they could examine her phone, which officers often do to see if a driver was texting at the time of an accident…
    The same surveillance video that shows Menendez’ car hitting Koop, shows her then sitting in the car for several minutes, never looking to see if the man she hit was ok. He died at the scene…
    Koop’s family did pursue the case with Nadine Menendez’s insurance company, and the family won.
https://abc7ny.com/nadine-menendez-deadly-car-crash-bogota-nj-senator-bob/13864313/

GREG HUNTER

McCarthy Out, Putin Warns, CV19 Vax Keeps Killing

McCarthy Out, Putin Warns, CV19 Vax Keeps Killing

By Greg Hunter On October 6, 2023 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups5 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 602 10/6/23)

In a stunning vote, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy was voted out of office. Matt Gaetz and 10 other House Republicans sent him packing when Gaetz forced a vote. McCarthy agreed on not funding Ukraine war spending but cut a side deal to do it anyway. That, along with other things, got some Republican House members so mad they simply voted McCarthy out in a vote that surprised almost everyone including the Deep State. Now, Representative Jim Jordan looks like the leading candidate for Speaker, especially after Trump endorsed him for the job. Trump was considered as a Speaker candidate, but Trump is running for President and has too many other witch hunt court cases on his plate to do the job.

Vladimir Putin is out with new warnings about the possibility of nuclear war with weapons so advanced there is “no chance of survival.” Putin is also on record this week as saying the war in Ukraine is the fault of NATO and the West. Putin said, “We did not start the war in Ukraine . . . we are trying to finish it.” Is Russia going to try to give a final knockout blow to Zelinsky and the depleted Ukraine war machine?

Every week more people are documented to have “died suddenly” with “no cause of death listed.” Of course, it’s the effects of the CV19 bioweapon vax. This week, we highlight a 17-year old high school student that died at her homecoming festivities. It was yet another murder from Big Pharma. Now, the Biden Administration is saying they did not force anyone to get vaxed. It this a signal that they know what is coming with nearly 700 million CV19 injections in the U.S. alone? There is no stopping what is happening.

There is much more in the 55-minute newscast.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 10.6.23.

(https://usawatchdog.com/mccarthy-out-putin-warns-cv19-vax-keeps-killing/)

After the Wrap-Up:

Dr. Ana Mihalcea, MD, PhD, will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. Dr. Mihalcea will talk about what she is finding in the blood of both the vaxed and unvaxed. What she is finding is nothing short of a record-breaking human catastrophe caused by the CV19 bioweapon vax.

see you on MONDAY