OCT 9/GOLD CLOSED UP $30.60 TO $1862.00//SILVER WAS UP $.25 TO $21,82//PLATINUM CLOSED $1.15 TO $883.65//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $5,59 TI $1173.40//THE ALL IMPORTANT STORY OF THE LAST 4 DAYS: HAMAS INFILTRATES ISRAEL AND MASSACRES 1000 CITIZENS//ISRAEL KILLS 1500 TERRORISTS//143,000 GAZANS DISPLACED AS ISRAEL ROCKS GAZA WITH BOMBS//OTHER MINOR STORIES//
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $27,403 DOWN 590 dollars
Platinum price closing $883,65 UP $1,15
Palladium price; $1173.40 DOWN $ 5.50
END
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Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,526.98 UP 26.98 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)
BRITISH GOLD: 1514.05 UP 19.30 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)
EURO GOLD: 1754.32 UP 26.40 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
JPMorgan stopped 5/182 contracts.
FOR OCT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 182 NOTICES FOR 18,200 OZ or .5660 TONNES
total notices so far: 9237 contracts for 923,700 oz (28.730 tonnes)
FOR OCT:
SILVER NOTICES:9 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 45,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 461 for 2,305,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $30.60
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF OF 5,77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 25 CENTS AT THE SLV// A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 452.960 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY HUGE SIZED 740CONTRACTS TO 126,111 (SHORT COVERING) AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE $0.69 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 2017 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 2017 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.69). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 628 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HOWEVER HAVE HUGE SHORT SPECULATOR CAPITULATION AS THESE GUYS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO EXTRICATE THEMSELVES FROM THEIR MESS.
AGAIN, FOR THE 6TH DAY IN A ROW WE HAVE WITNESSED A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE FOR THE COMEX SILVER CONTRACTS. OUR SHORT SPECULATORS HAVE BEEN MET WITH PHYSICAL DELIVERY DEMANDS BY THE BANK. THE ONLY WAY THEY CAN OBTAIN GOLD IS THROUGH THESE EFP’S WHERE DELIVERY IS TAKEN IN LONDON ON A T +2 BASIS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 115 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 65,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 MILLION OZ: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 2.0 MILLION OZ //NEW STANDING 2.405 MILLION OZ NORMAL SILVER DELIVERY + 2.0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR = 4.405 MILLION OZ/////HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 2017CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL + ADDED 28 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 6 days, total 11,186 contracts: OR 55.930 MILLION OZ (1864 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 51.605 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 55.930 MILLION OZ (THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE//AND MOST LIKELY WILL SET A NEW RECORD AT MONTHS END)
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 740 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.69 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALLER EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 115 ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. THIS IS THE 6TH DAY IN A ROW FOR HUGE E.F.P. ISSUANCES. OUR LONG BANKERS ARE SERVING THE SHORT SPECS WITH NOTICES TO DELIVER PHYSICAL SILVER. THEY ONLY WAY THAT THEY CAN OBTAIN HUGE QUANTITIES OF SILVER IS THROUGH THE PURCHASE OF SILVER CONTRACTS AND IMMEDIATELY TRANSFER THESE CONTRACTS OVER TO LONDON FOR DELIVERY ON A T+ 2 BASIS. WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 65,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP:NEW TOTAL STANDING 2.340 MILLION OZ + A NEW ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 MILLION OZ. THUS NEW TOTAL OF SILVER STANDING: 4.405 MILLION OZ// /// WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 625 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 2017 CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT A MEGA GIGANTIC (2017) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 9 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 45,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 909 CONTRACTS TO 433,176 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: + REMOVED 718 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 909 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR STRONG $13.05 GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 32,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP/NEW STANDING 29.757 TONNES/ + /A STRONG (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1496 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$13.05 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 441 OI CONTRACTS (1.356 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 1350CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 433,176
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 441 CONTRACTS WITH 909 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1350 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 441CONTRACTS OR 1.356 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 1496 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1350 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1044) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 441 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 32,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 29.757 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION BUT CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1496 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 30,103 CONTRACTS OR 3,010,300 OZ OR 93.63 TONNES IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5017 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 6TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 93.63 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 93.63/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.64% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 93.63 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A HUGE E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 740 CONTRACTS OI TO 127,239 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A SMALL 115 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 115and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 115 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 740 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 115 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 625 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.485 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 21.69 PTS OR .70% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 147.83 PTS OR 0.84% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 751.86 PTS OR 2.43% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.10 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.2990 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2984 /Oil DOWN TO 85.94 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 87.68 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 909CONTRACTS TO 433,176 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.05 ON FRIDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1350 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 1350 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1350 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 441 CONTRACTS IN THAT 909LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 909 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.05//FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1490 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (28.753) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 28.753 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $13.05) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 4941 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF FRIDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 1.356 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 32,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTALS STANDING:29.757 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $13.05. FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS.
WE HAD REMOVED 718 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 441 CONTRACTS OR 44,100 OZ OR 1.356 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9237 notices 923,700 OZ 28.730 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of JPMorgan: 257,208.000 oz (8,000 kilobars)
total withdrawals 257,208.000 oz
Adjustments; 4 dealer to customer
i)HSBC 11,371.125 0z
ii) JPMorgan 6751.964 oz
iii) Malca 6365.898 oz
iv) Manfra: 12,330.640 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 512 contracts having GAINED 3 contracts. We had 320 contracts filed on Friday, so we gained another whopping 323 contracts or an additional 32,300 oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. Somebody, for the 6th day in a row, was in urgent need of a huge supply of physical gold over here. Also please note the large EFP issuances for the comex gold contracts. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis.
NOV GAINED 154 CONTRACTS to stand at 1495
December LOST 2880 contracts down to 363,776 contracts.
We had 182 contracts filed for today representing 18,200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 182 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 5 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9257 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (512 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 182 x 100 oz per contract equals 956,700 OZ OR 29.757 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT.contract month: No of notices filed so far (9237) x 100 oz + (512) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (182) x 100 oz) which equals 956,700 oz standing OR 29.757 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 29.757 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 20,460,466.650 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,067,513.609 (313,14 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,392,953.071 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,044,290 (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 250.211 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 9
//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
165,874.113oz Brinks Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
485,565.070 oz HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
9 CONTRACT(S) (45,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
20 contracts (100,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
461 Contracts (2,305,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into HSBC 485,565.070 oz
total customer deposit 485,565.070oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.236 million oz/273.080 million or 49.89%
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of Brinks 25,108.73 oz
ii)out of Delaware 140,755.380 oz
total: 165,874.114 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.678 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 273.080 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 29 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 105 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 118 NOTICES FILED
ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 13 CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A QUEUE JUMP OF 65,000 OZ
NOVEMBER LOST 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 409
DEC. LOST 1256 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 105,220 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 9 for 45,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 46,428 //weak
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 64,827 fair//
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 461 x 5,000 oz = 2,305,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (29) and the number of notices served upon today 9 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 461 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (29) – number of notices served upon today (9 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 2.405 million oz + 2.0 MILLION oz of exchange for risk prior//new totals: 4.405 million oz.
There are 37.678 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES
OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES
AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 861.81 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ
OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
War broke out in the Middle East over the weekend after Hamas attacked Israel. In his podcast, Peter broke down the possible economic ramifications here in the United States. He said the US can’t afford peace, much less war.
Market reaction to the events in Israel and the Gaza Strip was muted. Peter said it was treated almost as a “non-event.”
“There’s so much complacency out there,” he said.
The stock market has been shrugging off the backup in yields, and now it’s shrugged off war in the Middle East, which I think is a big deal.
Oil was up a bit, but not nearly as much as you would expect given the turmoil in the Middle East.
Gold, on the other hand, was up around $30. This came on the heels of an outside reversal on Friday when gold and silver took out the low for the prior day and then closed above the high for the prior day. This kind of reversal generally signals the end of a trend.
In the case of gold and silver, the trend that was ending was the downtrend.”
Peter said the situation in the Middle East is bullish for gold, silver, and oil, but the markets seem to be missing the heightened risks. He said the situation reminds him of what happened when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
At the time, most people thought it would be over quickly. Peter warned that it would likely drag on.
I wish I was wrong about that. I wish that this thing had ended quickly. But unfortunately, it didn’t.”
In fact, Joe Biden has proposed another $100 billion in aid to Ukraine.
That pretty much guarantees that the war is going to last another year or two because it’s going to take at least that long to spend all that money. But of course, not all the money is spent, right? A lot of it is skimmed off the top by the corrupt politicians, and so they want to keep those money spigots flowing.”
This is money the US doesn’t have.
Biden is like, ‘Oh, let’s just send him an extra 100 billion.’ Well, where are we going to get it? We’re broke. We have a $2 trillion-plus deficit. That’s why bonds are collapsing and yields are rising. And we want to borrow another $100 billion to send it over to Ukraine to perpetuate that war?”
Peter said the outbreak of violence in the Middle East has the potential to evolve into the same type of situation with the US spending billions in military aid to Israel.
The attack was something like a 9-11 for Israel. Of course, when terrorists attacked the US, that led to the “War on Terror,” including the invasion of Iraq, a country that had nothing to do with the attack. We could easily see a similar escalation in the Middle East.
I think this is the beginning of a bad situation, unfortunately. … None of this is going to be pretty in the short run. It’s all going to be problematic. It’s going to destabilize the region. There already is a lot of tension there. But who knows what this is going to do to the oil market.
This comes at a time with the US only has about 12 days left in its strategic petroleum reserve.
This is not a good time to have an oil embargo when you’ve just blown through most of your strategic petroleum reserve trying to buy votes for the Democrats at the midterms. So, we’re particularly vulnerable.”
One sector that did particularly well on Monday was defense stocks.
Why are these defense stocks rallying? Because people know that means they’re going to sell more weapons. So, who’s buying all these weapons, and who’s paying for them? Maybe it’s Israel that’s going to buy all the weapons, but where are they going to get the money? They’ll get the money from us. But where are we going to get the money? We’ve got to borrow it from the Chinese — except the Chinese don’t want to lend it. So, we’ve got to get it from the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is going to print more money.”
Peter speculated that perhaps that’s the reason the markets rallied on Monday.
Maybe it’s not that they are underestimating how bad the problem is. Maybe they realize it’s a bad problem, and they realize that that’s a good thing. Because, you know, bad news is good news. And if this is bad news, maybe it’s good because it means we’re going to get more QE, or a return to QE. And at least we’re not going to get any more rate hikes. We’ve got war in the Middle East, so the Fed can’t raise rates with all that uncertainty out there. And maybe they’ll have to cut rates.”
Peter reiterated something he’s talked about in the past — it doesn’t matter if the Fed stops hiking rates because the market isn’t finished hiking rates.
In fact, if the Fed is done hiking, then the market has even more work to do.”
It’s not so much that the Fed rate hikes have driven up rates on the long end of the curve. Long-term rates have gone up because of inflation and the huge supply of bonds in the market. Meanwhile, everybody thought the rate hikes would cause a recession and then the Fed would cut rates. They also thought the recession would cure the inflation problem. The recession hasn’t happened yet, the mainstream has decided it’s not going to, and now the markets are trying to price it out.
Ironically, we’re seeing huge budget deficits even in this “strong” economy. Generally, economic growth increases tax receipts and shrinks the deficit.
We’re in a situation where a strong economy is resulting in even larger, not smaller budget deficits, which will put even more upward pressure on long-term interest rates than you would normally expect in a strong economy.”
The bottom line is wars are expensive.
There is no short-term benefit economically of fighting a war.”
All of this is going to weaken an economy that is already structurally weak. The US can’t even afford peace. It certainly can’t afford war.
end
Bidenomics: National Debt Increases By Another Half-Trillion In Just 20 Days
By the way, it only took Biden and his willing accomplices in Congress three months to drive the national debt from $32 trillion to $33 trillion.
As of October 5, the debt stood at $33,513,382,512,663.51.
This is an unimaginable amount of money.
To put things into some perspective, the total output of the US economy as measured by GDP was only $25.46 trillion. That means the US economy would have to grow by 33.5% to cover the national debt.
At $33 trillion, the US national debt is more than the total economies of China, Japan, Germany, and the UK combined.
Looking at it another way, as of Oct. 10, every US citizen would have to write a $99,839 check in order to pay off the debt, and every American taxpayer is on the hook for $258,257.
Part of the reason the debt has increased so fast since June is because the Treasury is still rebuilding cash reserves that were depleted during the debt ceiling fight. But the fact remains – the federal government spends too much money.
It’s hard to overstate just how bad the US government’s fiscal situation has become. We have a trifecta of surging debt, massive deficits, and declining federal revenue. The chart below provides a visual perspective – and it doesn’t even account for the last few years.
This relentless increase in debt is happening when the economy is supposedly strong. Typically, a strong economy generates more tax revenue, and deficits shrink. But this isn’t really a strong economy. It is a house of cards built on debt. Fiscal stimulus is helping to prop it up.
That means there is no end in sight to this upward-spiraling national debt.
The biggest issue is the federal government spending addiction. In August alone, the Biden administration spent over $527 billion.
In fact, the US can’t even afford the interest on the debt.
Uncle Sam’s interest expense is already rising at an astronomical rate, and it’s set to explode.
The federal government has paid well over half a trillion dollars ($630 billion) on interest payments alone in fiscal 2023, with one month left to go. Interest on the debt paid in July exceeded the amount spent on national defense that month. Uncle Sam is well on the way to spending more on interest payments than any line item other than Social Security and Medicare.
The average interest rate on the debt is now at the highest level since 2011, coming in at 2.92% as of the end of August. But that’s still relatively low, and the debt is more than double what it was back in the good ol’ days of 2011.
Meanwhile, the average interest rate is poised to climb rapidly. A lot of the debt currently on the books was financed at very low rates before the Federal Reserve started its hiking cycle. Every month, some of that super-low-yielding paper matures and has to be replaced by bonds yielding much higher rates. That means interest payments will quickly climb much higher unless rates fall.
To give you an idea of where we’re heading, T-bills currently yield about 5.5%, the two-year yield is over 5% and the 10-year currently yields around 4.7%.
This has driven interest payments as a percentage of total tax receipts to over 35%. In other words, the government is already paying more than a third of the taxes it collects on interest expense.
If interest rates remain elevated, or continue rising, interest expenses could climb rapidly into the top three federal expenses. (You can read a more in-depth analysis of the national debt HERE.)
People tend to yawn at the ever-increasing national debt, but it is a ticking time bomb. Who knows how much time is left, but the timer is ticking relentlessly toward zero.
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Our good friend, Mr Gold, Jim Sinclair passes away at 82 years
(zerohedge)
Jim Sinclair, the ‘Mister Gold’ of the United States, dies at 82
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-10-06 20:45Section: Daily Dispatches
8:47p ET Friday, October 6, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
James E. Sinclair, long the “Mister Gold” of the United States — an advocate of gold as money, a gold market maker, a gold mining company founder, and an internationally known commenter on the markets — died of a heart attack today, his business associate, Bill Holter, confirmed to GATA. He was 82.
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4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:ORANGE JUICE
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.2990
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2984
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 21.69 PTS OR .70%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 147.33 PTS OR 0.84%
2. Nikkei closed UP 751.86 PTS OR 2.43 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.82 EURO FALLS TO 1.0573 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.780 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.07/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.8125***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.847*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.949…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.300
3j Gold at $1856.00 silver at: 21.72 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 34 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 99.66//
3m oil into the 85 dollar handle for WTI and 87 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.07// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.780% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9076 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9600 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.703 UP 6 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.884 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.005 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.73…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 0 BASIS PTS AT 4.5678
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures, Global Markets Gain On China Stimulus Hopes, Dovish Fed Talk As Geopolitical Fears Fade
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 08:15 AM
Futures are modestly higher, but well off session highs, led by small-caps as bond yields fall 10ps in the long-end of the curve after dovish comments by Fed officials and reports of more economic stimulus from China brought some risk appetite back to markets while investors continue to evaluate the potential impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Asian and European shares also rallied. At 7:45am ET, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose about 0.1% after Monday’s solid gains on Wall Street which took place with the Treasury cash market closed.
BBG reported that China may use an additional $137bn in fiscal stimulus to achieve growth targets, although as usual the market balked at the number which it viewed as too little. Treasuries jumped, catching up with Monday’s global government bond rally, when cash trading in the US was closed. The yield on the policy-sensitive 2Y Treasury dropped by the most since the end of August, while the benchmark 10-year had its best day since March. The dollar was steady after four days of declines. Commodities are muted despite the bullish China news; the USD is weaker for the 4th day in a row as the market appears to disregard geopolitical risk. Today lacks any major macro data with PPI tomorrow and CPI Thursday, while bank earnings kick off later this week.
In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks including Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd. and JD.com Inc. were among the notable gainers after Bloomberg reported that China is preparing to unleash a new round of measures to support its economy. PepsiCo climbed almost 3% after raising its profit forecast. Rival drinks-maker The Coca-Cola Co. gained more than 1%. Mobile-chip makers Skyworks Solutions Inc. and Qorvo Inc. declined after Citigroup Inc. downgraded the stocks to sell. Lexicon Pharmaceuticals shares rose 10% in premarket trading on Tuesday after getting preferred status at Express Scripts, the pharmacy benefits management business of The Cigna Group’s Evernorth.
At the end of last week, traders had boosted bets on another Fed hike this after US employment unexpectedly surged in September. That narrative switched on Monday, however, as central bank officials tamped down the speculation. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said officials could “proceed carefully” following the recent rise in Treasury yields, and Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the surge in long-term rates may mean less need for further tightening. Another slate of Fed speakers today may add to the picture.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he would “remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields” in assessing the future path of policy. Fed official Lorie Logan said the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields may indicate less need for the US central bank to raise rates again
“The latest comments from Fed speakers have had a clear risk-on influence on the market,” said Benjamin Melman, global chief investment officer at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. “There’s been a clear change of tone.”
“I’ll be cautious here considering that market has been seeing the Fed as dovish many times in the past year and that got proven wrong time and time again,” said Mingze Wu, a currency trader at StoneX. “If the Israel-Palestinian conflict expands and we see more countries joining in, risk positivity will likely erode quickly”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index jumped 1.6%, heading for its best day this year, with all industry sectors in the green. The region is ripping given the combination of dovish Fedspeak, a lack of escalation of the Israeli conflict to a regional conflict, and potential additional stimulus from China. Vol/Cyclicals are leading, Quality is lagging; Value over Growth. UKX +1.5%, SX5E +1.6%, SXXP +1.5%, DAX +1.5%. Miners led the advance as copper and nickel prices rose on hopes further stimulus from China would boost demand for metals. Anglo American Plc advanced more than 5%, while Glencore Plc, Rio Tinto Plc and ArcelorMittal added more than 3% each. Carmakers rose the most in four months, lead by Volvo Car AB-B. Here are some other notable European movers:
Tele2 shares rise as much as 3.9% after Redburn Atlantic raises the telecom operator to buy from sell, saying the cash-flow problems that the company has faced since 2022 are now behind
Elis rose as much as 6.6%, their biggest jump since March 2022, after Brazilian asset manager BW Gestão de Investimentos acquired a 6% stake in the French cleaning services group
Eiffage gains as much as 3.5% as Jefferies upgrades to buy in European infrastructure sector earnings preview while staying cautious on Fraport and Skanska
About You shares gain as much as 7.2% after the online fashion retailer said it expected to significantly improve its margin year-on-year
Greencore shares jump as much as 17%, the most since November 2020, after the Irish packaged food company forecast full-year adjusted operating profit that beat the average analyst estimate
Ubisoft shares fall as much as 6.3%, the most intraday since May. The French company said its free-to-play first-person shooter game XDefiant will be delayed
Vitesco Technologies shares are trading around 0.2% below the value of Schaeffler offer, signaling a high certainty for the deal to close
PGS dropped as much as 8% after it reported preliminary revenue for the third quarter of about $141 million, estimate $196.3 million
EuroAPI falls as much as 61% in Paris trading following another profit warning from the French drug-ingredients maker
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on course for their biggest daily gain since July, as dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials lifted risk sentiment and fueled expectations that the US central bank may pause rate hikes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.6%, led by industrial and consumer discretionary shares. Key benchmarks climbed in Japan and South Korea after holidays, while stocks also gained in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia. Mainland Chinese stocks fell amid concerns about the strength of economic recovery. Taiwan’s market was closed for a holiday.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong lifted by strength in tech and property, while the mainland lagged amid underwhelming holiday spending and lingering debt concerns after Country Garden flagged it would not be able to meet all offshore obligations.
Australia’s ASX 200 was lifted as utilities and tech led the broad-based gains across sectors and with the index unfazed by the mixed consumer and business confidence data releases.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 outperformed on return from holiday and got its first opportunity to react to the key market themes including last week’s US jobs data, the Israel-Hamas conflict and recent Fed rhetoric.
Korea’s KOSPI gained with chipmakers boosted after reports that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will be allowed to supply US chip equipment to their China factories indefinitely without separate US approvals.
Stocks in India climbed the most in more than three months, tracking regional peers, as a softer tone by the Federal Reserve lifted risk sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.9% to 66,079.36 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by a similar measure. All the sectoral gauges of the BSE recorded gains, with a basket of real estate companies soaring 5% and touching the highest since 2008.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped as much as 0.1%, extending losses for a fifth straight day, as investors focused on dovish Federal Reserve comments. The Norwegian krone underperforms its G-10 peers, falling 0.4% versus the greenback after CPI slowed more than expected in September. Spot gold falls 0.2%.
In rates, treasuries rally as they catch up with Monday’s move in futures after some dovish Fed speak, however they pared the gap lower when cash trading resumed following Monday’s US holiday. Futures, which rallied steeply Monday, are lower by around 8 ticks in 10-year note contracts; on Monday futures implied a 10Y yield as low as 4.60%, a move which tracked gains in core European rates driven by flight-to-quality flows and dovish Fed speakers. On Tuesday, treasury yields remain richer on the day by 8bp to 13bp across the curve with front-end lagging slightly, flattening 2s10s spread by 4bp on the day; 10-year yields around 4.70% after opening just under 4.62%. The Treasury auction cycle begins at 1pm with $46b 3-year note sale, followed by 10- and 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. Tuesday’s session includes a packed speaker slate, following comments from Logan and Jefferson on Monday.
In commodities, oil prices pared an earlier fall to trade little changed, with WTI around $86.40 as investors keep a close eye on the Hamas-Israel war.
Turning to the day ahead, we have a much busier day data-wise than yesterday, with the release of the US September NFIB small business optimism (down to 91.0 from 91.3, but above exp. 90.8) , NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and August wholesale trade sales, as well as Italian August industrial production. We will also hear from a number of central bankers, including the Fed’s Bostic, Waller, Kashkari, Perli and Daly speak, as well as from the ECB’s Villeroy, and the BoE will release the minutes of their financial policy meeting. Finally, PepsiCo releases its earnings report.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,377.00
MXAP up 1.2% to 156.73
MXAPJ up 0.8% to 489.75
Nikkei up 2.4% to 31,746.53
Topix up 2.1% to 2,312.19
Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 17,664.73
Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,075.24
Sensex up 0.9% to 66,132.23
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0% to 7,040.64
Kospi down 0.3% to 2,402.58
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.4% to 450.14
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.79%
Euro up 0.3% to $1.0595
Brent Futures little changed at $88.19/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,858.17
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 105.91
Top Overnight News
China may raise its budget deficit as the government prepares to unleash more stimulus, people familiar said. Policymakers are weighing the sale of at least 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) of sovereign debt for spending on infrastructure. An announcement may come as soon as this month. BBG
Country Garden, the Chinese property giant, failed to make an int’l debt payment and warned it wouldn’t be able to meet all its obligations. WSJ
Norway’s CPI for Sept falls far below expectations (the underlying CPI came in at +5.7%, down from +6.3% in Aug and below the Street’s +6.1% forecast). BBG
European Central Bank policymakers consider a spike in Italy’s bond yields to be justified by the government’s projection of higher deficits, but see it as a warning sign that should cool talk of ending a bond-buying scheme early, six sources said. RTRS
The Israel-Hamas conflict entered its fourth day, with at least 1,500 fatalities. Overnight, Israel struck the Gaza Strip and is now building a base to accommodate thousands of soldiers. The US warned Iran to not get involved. Joe Biden will speak at 1 p.m. ET. FT
The IMF boosted its global inflation forecast for next year to 5.8% from the 5.2% predicted three months ago. In most countries, the institution sees CPI remaining above central bank targets until 2025. It also expects global growth of 2.9% for next year, down 0.1% from its outlook in July. BBG
Neither Israel nor the US has explicit proof linking Iran to the Hamas attack from Saturday (in terms of directly authorizing or coordinating), although the terrorist group received logistical help and military training from allies in Tehran. WaPo
Tesla’s top-selling electric vehicles now compete directly with gasoline cars on price after the latest round of price reductions. The lower prices could cost the company $1.2 billion a year, according to at least one investor. BBG
PepsiCo rising premarket on a core EPS beat and higher full-year outlook. RTRS
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly positive as key markets reopened from the long weekend and following the recovery seen on Wall Street owing to a bout of dovish-leaning Fed commentary. ASX 200 was lifted as utilities and tech led the broad-based gains across sectors and with the index unfazed by the mixed consumer and business confidence data releases. Nikkei 225 outperformed on return from holiday and got its first opportunity to react to the key market themes including last week’s US jobs data, the Israel-Hamas conflict and recent Fed rhetoric. KOSPI gained with chipmakers boosted after reports that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will be allowed to supply US chip equipment to their China factories indefinitely without separate US approvals. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong lifted by strength in tech and property, while the mainland lagged amid underwhelming holiday spending and lingering debt concerns after Country Garden flagged it would not be able to meet all offshore obligations.
Top Asian News
China reportedly weighs new stimulus and higher deficit to meet growth target, according to Bloomberg sources. Policymakers are weighing the issuance of at least CNH 1tln (USD 137bln) of additional sovereign debt for spending on infrastructure. Could raise this year’s budget deficit to “well above” the 3% cap set in March sources added. An announcement could come as early as this month, but talks are ongoing and plans can change.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1781 vs exp. 7.2758 (prev. 7.1789).
China’s Commerce Minister Wang said in talks with the delegation of US senators that the US-China economic and trade relationship is very important to the two countries and China will not avoid competition but it should be fair and based on international rules. Wang said both sides had rational and pragmatic discussions and China hopes the US is to specify the boundaries of security accurately, as well as avoid politicising and generalising security issues, according to Reuters.
Country Garden (2007 HK) said it took various measures to alleviate liquidity pressure to minimise the impact on project construction and operations, while its liquidity position is expected to remain very tight in the short to medium term. Co. also said it had not made a due payment in the principal amount of HKD 470mln under certain of its indebtedness and expects that it will not be able to meet all offshore obligations when due or within relevant grace periods.
BoJ is reportedly mulling raising its FY23/24 core CPI target to near 3% from 2.5% forecast in July, according to Kyodo
European bourses trade on the front-foot in a catch-up play to the afternoon gains on Wall Street which were brought about by dovish-leaning Fed rhetoric. Sectors in Europe are firmer across the board to varying degrees with Energy still the laggard while Basic Resources outperform following the aforementioned China sources; Real Estate names are cheering the pullback in yield whilst Travel & Leisure stocks are being granted some reprieve from yesterday’s selling pressure. US futures are trading slightly firmer, continuing to extend on gains seen in yesterday’s session.
Top European News
ECB’s Villeroy said interest rates are now on a good level, at this stage further rate hikes are not the right thing to do; adds the Israel situation is no reason for us to tweak inflation prospects for now, and still sees inflation at around 2% by 2025, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Holzmann said higher bond yields send a similar message to hikes. “If additional shocks come, and if the information we have proves to be incorrect, we may have to hike another time or perhaps two times”, according to CNBC.
EU is planning an anti-subsidy probe into Chinese steelmakers, according to FT.
Kantar UK Supermarket update: Grocery inflation cools again as shoppers seek value during sunny September.
BoE Financial Policy Summary and Record: maintains CCyB rates at 2%; some members suggested increasing the rate to build resilience, the case for lowering was also discussed.
FX
Dollar depressed as risk appetite picks up and Fed VC Jefferson echoes sentiments about the tightening impact of higher yields, with DXY losing grasp of the 106.000 handle within a 106.250-105.760 range.
Euro bounces firmly to probe 1.0600 vs Buck having survived a test of the big figure below at the height of risk aversion.
Pound breaches semi-psychological resistance at 1.2250 against Greenback, Franc extends its rebound through 0.9050 and Aussie regains 0.6400+ status amidst reports of more Chinese stimulus.
Yen underperforms as Japanese participants return from holiday and buy USD/JPY from the low 148.00 area for the Tokyo fix.
Norwegian Crown down in wake of cooler than forecast CPI metrics, with EUR/NOK eyeing 11.5000 from sub-11.3850
Fixed Income
Bonds futures settle down after Monday’s Middle East safety flight.
Bunds dangle within a 128.97-47 range alongside T-note between 107-16/30+ parameters, but Gilts stay afloat after peaking at 93.81 and retreating to 93.39.
UK sold GBP 900mln 0.125% 2039 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.17x prev. (2.62x) & real yield 1.265% (prev. 0.986%)
Germany sold EUR 464mln vs exp. EUR 600mln 0.10% 2033 I/L and 0.10% 2046 I/L Bund: 2033: b/c 1.47x (prev. 2.1x) & real yield 0.42% (prev. 0.19%), 2046: b/c 1.14x (prev. 1.1x) & real yield 0.56% (prev. 0.21%)
Commodities
Crude front-month futures are choppy but briefly tilted firmer on the back of source reports that China is mulling new stimulus and higher deficit to meet growth target, although the upside was short-lived whilst IMF cut growth forecasts for China and the EZ.
Dutch TTF prices continue to grind higher with desks citing tailwinds from the crude complex coupled with the revived Australian LNG strikes at Chevron facilities in the run-up to the winter heating season.
Spot gold is flat/tilting lower after Monday’s risk premium led to intraday gains of almost USD 30/oz in the yellow metal. Spot gold remains north of USD 1,850/oz.
OPEC Secretary General said they are not too worried about China in the medium-to-long term, according to Reuters.
China’s largest copper buyers expect to pay a premium of around USD 90/t for Codelco’s copper, according to Reuters sources.
Geopolitics
US Pentagon said Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Brown spoke with Israeli counterpart Halevi and discussed steps to strengthen US military posture in the region and bolster deterrence efforts. It was also reported that General Brown said the message to Iran is not to get involved in the crisis in Israel and he does not want the conflict to broaden.
White House joint statement from the US, UK, France, Italy and Germany states their countries will support Israel in its efforts to defend itself, while they will remain united and coordinated to ensure Israel is able to defend itself, according to Reuters.
UAE warned the Assad regime in Syria not to intervene in the Hamas-Israel war or to allow attacks on Israel from Syrian soil, according to Axios citing two sources briefed on the Emirati diplomatic effort.
Senior UN official met with Russian officials in Moscow to discuss Russian and Ukrainian food and fertiliser exports, while talks are aimed at facilitating unimpeded access to global markets for food and fertilisers from Russia and Ukraine.
North Korean state media said an important report is coming up but didn’t provide details, while an official said the military spy satellite is an indispensable option to counter the US, according to Yonhap.
China’s Coast Guard said a Philippines navy boat illegally intruded into waters around the Scarborough Shoal and it took measures to drive away the Philippines vessel, according to Reuters.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says would only resume nuclear testing if and after the US was to do the same, according to Interfax, and says they have seen signs that the US is making preparations for nuclear testing in Nevada, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
06:00: Sept. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, est. 91.0, prior 91.3
10:00: Aug. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
Aug. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
11:00: Sept. NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectat, prior 3.63%
Central Bank Speakers
09:00: Fed’s Perli Speaks at NABE
09:30: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Outlook for US Economy
13:00: Fed’s Waller Speaks at Monetary Policy Conference
15:00: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Town Hall
18:00: Fed’s Daly Speaks At Chicago Council on Global Affairs
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The aftermath of Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel early Saturday continues to reverberate around markets but with the risk moves relatively contained. Oil was the biggest beneficiary but European yields rallied strongly into the close though this was perhaps as much because Fed hawk Logan appeared more dovish than of late, helping equities in the process. Indeed, 10yr USTs have reopened this morning after the holiday yesterday and are -16bps (c.4.64%) as we type and looking set for their best day in around 7 months. The 2s10s curve has re-flattened 4bps this morning after a relentless steepening of late.
Starting with the oil moves, WTI crude gained +4.34% to $86.38/bbl, with Brent Crude up +4.22% to $88.15/bbl, the highest daily increase for both since May. The conflict has already affected commodity production, after it was reported that Chevron had been told to shut down output at its Tamar Gas Platform, a major gas field, by Israeli officials. This morning in Asia, oil prices have edged back down a touch with Brent Crude futures down -0.39% trading at $87.81/bbl. European gas futures rose +17.33% yesterday to €43.0/MWh, their highest close since April, with a suspected leak at a gas interconnector pipeline in the Baltic also adding uncertainty.
After a tough couple of weeks for fixed income, sovereign bonds rallied on Monday, as 10yr German bund yields fell -11.3bps. By lunchtime an early flight to quality had faded with bunds near unchanged on the day. The rally seemed to return after dovish comments by the Fed’s Logan, a renowned hawk. Logan stated that the higher yields may mean there is less need to raise Fed rates further, with financial conditions also tightening ‘substantially in recent months’. Logan noted that if these long-term rate increases were a result of higher term premiums, this would further add to the argument against another Fed hike. Following Logan’s comments, the rate priced in by Fed futures for December 2024 fell back -18.0bps to 4.46% .
The Fed’s Barr further added to the dovish Fed speak, stating that “significant progress” has been made “on bringing inflation toward the direction we want”, and is “not overly focused on one number coming in”. Barr also commented on the labour market, which “remains tight”, but supply and demand factors are coming “into better balance”. Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson also struck a cautious tone, saying he would “remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields” .
Alongside the dovish news, the European afternoon saw conflicting reports that Hezbollah militants were mounting operations from Lebanon into Israel. Additional reports soon followed that pointed to escalating conflict at the border with Lebanon, including reports of Israeli air strikes being launched at the border area, as well as Israel directing northern residents to take safety in bomb shelters. There was also growing concern that Iran, a supporter of Hamas, and a major oil supplier, may be drawn into the conflict. Iran declared its support for Hamas’ operations (though it denied direct involvement), and Israeli intelligence stated on Monday that their ‘working assumption’ was that Iran may be ‘implicated’, although it remains ‘unclear’. A wider conflict including Iran may impact the oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a channel Iran has previously threatened to shut. You can read more about the developments in Israel over the weekend in our CEEMA team’s recent note here, or sign up to their webinar to be held later today at 2pm London time (here).
Rounding out the bond moves, 2yr bund yields closed -9.4bps so fairly parallel shift lower across the curve. Elsewhere, 10yr French OAT yields slipped -10.9bps and Italian BTP yields were down -7.3bps, with the BTP-Bund spread reaching its new highest level since January at 206bps. Across the channel, 10yr UK gilt yields fell -5.1bps. Gold similarly gained in the flight to safety, up +0.93%. Coupled with Friday’s rise this marks gold’s strongest 2-day gain since May, coming after a run of 9 successive down days.
The complex backdrop led to swings in US equities. T he S&P 500 was down half a percent just before Europe closed but rallied thereafter to close +0.63%. The equity gains were quite broad, but with energy stocks rallying +3.54% as oil prices climbed. The aerospace & defence sector was unsurprisingly another beneficiary (+5.63%), led by an +11.43% gain for Northrop Grumman . Meanwhile, semiconductors were a key underperformer within the S&P 500 (-0.37%), off the back of reports that the US was considering additional new rules on Chinese access to some advanced chips. Nvidia fell -1.07% on the day. The NASDAQ underperformed but still posted a +0.39% gain. The risk-off tone weighed more clearly on European equities, as the STOXX 600 fell back -0.26%, with larger declines in DAX (-0.67%) and CAC (-0.55%). Overall equities held up well given the weekend news with the fall in yields possibly being a big offset to the geopolitics.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning shrugging off concerns in the Middle East with lower yields a big catalyst. Across the region, the Nikkei (+2.49%) is outperforming after coming back from Monday’s holiday with the Hang Seng (+1.26%) and the KOSPI also trading higher. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.20%) is extending its gains for a fourth straight session while stocks in mainland China are seeing losses with the CSI (-0.55%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.49%) edging lower in early trade. S&P 500 (+0.10%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.19%) futures are a touch higher.
Coming back to China, Real estate developer Country Garden Holdings indicated that it will not be able to meet all of its offshore obligations within the relevant grace period, including those issued in US dollars. It failed to make a debt repayment of 470 million Hong Kong dollars ($60 million) today. Meanwhile, the company had missed initial deadlines last month to pay interest on two dollar bonds, with grace periods set to end Oct. 17-18 and Oct. 27, respectively.
The developments in Israel were not the only geopolitical news on Monday. US Senate Majority Leader Schumer met with Chinese President Xi in Beijing to discuss US-China relations in Xi’s first meeting with US senators since 2015. The discussion emphasised that the two superpowers should focus on improving relations, with Xi commenting the countries “should respect each other and collaborate”, with a “thousand reasons to improve relations, no reason to make them worse”. At the same time, Schumer confronted China’s lack of condemnation of Hamas’ incursion into Israel.
Now turning to the day ahead, we have a much busier day data-wise than yesterday, with the release of the US September NFIB small business optimism, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and August wholesale trade sales, as well as Italian August industrial production. We will also hear from a number of central bankers, including the Fed’s Bostic, Waller, Kashkari, Perli and Daly speak, as well as from the ECB’s Villeroy, and the BoE will release the minutes of their financial policy meeting. Finally, PepsiCo releases its earnings report.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities bid & DXY weaker as risk appetite returns; NY SCE and Fed speak due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 06:22 AM
European bourses trade on the front-foot in a catch-up play to the afternoon gains on Wall Street; US futures are trading slightly firmer, continuing to extend on gains seen in yesterday’s session.
Dollar pulls back under 106.00 as risk appetite picks up, JPY underperforms with USD/JPY hovering around 149.00; Bonds futures settle down after Monday’s Middle East safety flight.
China reportedly weighs new stimulus and higher deficit to meet growth target, according to Bloomberg sources.
IMF World Economic Outlook cut 2023 and 2024 GDP growth forecasts for China and EZ whilst maintaining the US forecasts.
Looking ahead, highlights include Wholesale Inventory & Sales, NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bostic, Waller, Kashkari & Daly, Supply from the US.
European bourses trade on the front-foot in a catch-up play to the afternoon gains on Wall Street which were brought about by dovish-leaning Fed rhetoric.
Sectors in Europe are firmer across the board to varying degrees with Energy still the laggard while Basic Resources outperform following the aforementioned China sources; Real Estate names are cheering the pullback in yield whilst Travel & Leisure stocks are being granted some reprieve from yesterday’s selling pressure.
US futures are trading slightly firmer, continuing to extend on gains seen in yesterday’s session.
Dollar depressed as risk appetite picks up and Fed VC Jefferson echoes sentiments about the tightening impact of higher yields, with DXY losing grasp of the 106.000 handle within a 106.250-105.760 range.
Euro bounces firmly to probe 1.0600 vs Buck having survived a test of the big figure below at the height of risk aversion.
Pound breaches semi-psychological resistance at 1.2250 against Greenback, Franc extends its rebound through 0.9050 and Aussie regains 0.6400+ status amidst reports of more Chinese stimulus.
Yen underperforms as Japanese participants return from holiday and buy USD/JPY from the low 148.00 area for the Tokyo fix.
Norwegian Crown down in wake of cooler than forecast CPI metrics, with EUR/NOK eyeing 11.5000 from sub-11.3850
Bonds futures settle down after Monday’s Middle East safety flight.
Bunds dangle within a 128.97-47 range alongside T-note between 107-16/30+ parameters, but Gilts stay afloat after peaking at 93.81 and retreating to 93.39.
UK sold GBP 900mln 0.125% 2039 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.17x prev. (2.62x) & real yield 1.265% (prev. 0.986%)
Germany sold EUR 464mln vs exp. EUR 600mln 0.10% 2033 I/L and 0.10% 2046 I/L Bund: 2033: b/c 1.47x (prev. 2.1x) & real yield 0.42% (prev. 0.19%), 2046: b/c 1.14x (prev. 1.1x) & real yield 0.56% (prev. 0.21%)
Crude front-month futures are choppy but briefly tilted firmer on the back of source reports that China is mulling new stimulus and higher deficit to meet growth target, although the upside was short-lived whilst IMF cut growth forecasts for China and the EZ.
Dutch TTF prices continue to grind higher with desks citing tailwinds from the crude complex coupled with the revived Australian LNG strikes at Chevron facilities in the run-up to the winter heating season.
Spot gold is flat/tilting lower after Monday’s risk premium led to intraday gains of almost USD 30/oz in the yellow metal. Spot gold remains north of USD 1,850/oz.
OPEC Secretary General said they are not too worried about China in the medium-to-long term, according to Reuters.
China’s largest copper buyers expect to pay a premium of around USD 90/t for Codelco’s copper, according to Reuters sources.
ECB’s Villeroy said interest rates are now on a good level, at this stage further rate hikes are not the right thing to do; adds the Israel situation is no reason for us to tweak inflation prospects for now, and still sees inflation at around 2% by 2025, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Holzmann said higher bond yields send a similar message to hikes. “If additional shocks come, and if the information we have proves to be incorrect, we may have to hike another time or perhaps two times”, according to CNBC.
EU is planning an anti-subsidy probe into Chinese steelmakers, according to FT.
Kantar UK Supermarket update: Grocery inflation cools again as shoppers seek value during sunny September.
BoE Financial Policy Summary and Record: maintains CCyB rates at 2%; some members suggested increasing the rate to build resilience, the case for lowering was also discussed.
DATA RECAP
UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Sep) 2.8% (Prev. 4.3%)
UK BRC Total Sales YY (Sep) 2.7% (Prev. 4.1%)
UK Barclaycard Consumer Spending YY (Sep) 4.2% (Prev. 2.8%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Biden was voluntarily interviewed as part of the classified documents investigation being led by Special Counsel Robert Hur, according to the White House.
Honeywell (HON) is to realign its portfolio to three powerful megatrends; automation, future of aviation and energy transition. Expects strong Q3 results – in line with previous guidance for sale and segment margin.
US Pentagon said Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Brown spoke with Israeli counterpart Halevi and discussed steps to strengthen US military posture in the region and bolster deterrence efforts. It was also reported that General Brown said the message to Iran is not to get involved in the crisis in Israel and he does not want the conflict to broaden.
White House joint statement from the US, UK, France, Italy and Germany states their countries will support Israel in its efforts to defend itself, while they will remain united and coordinated to ensure Israel is able to defend itself, according to Reuters.
UAE warned the Assad regime in Syria not to intervene in the Hamas-Israel war or to allow attacks on Israel from Syrian soil, according to Axios citing two sources briefed on the Emirati diplomatic effort.
Senior UN official met with Russian officials in Moscow to discuss Russian and Ukrainian food and fertiliser exports, while talks are aimed at facilitating unimpeded access to global markets for food and fertilisers from Russia and Ukraine.
North Korean state media said an important report is coming up but didn’t provide details, while an official said the military spy satellite is an indispensable option to counter the US, according to Yonhap.
China’s Coast Guard said a Philippines navy boat illegally intruded into waters around the Scarborough Shoal and it took measures to drive away the Philippines vessel, according to Reuters.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says would only resume nuclear testing if and after the US was to do the same, according to Interfax, and says they have seen signs that the US is making preparations for nuclear testing in Nevada, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was little changed with price action choppy but remained above the USD 27,500 level.
GLOBAL
IMF World Economic Outlook: global real GDP seen at 3.0% in 2023 (same as July), 2024 cut to 2.9% from 3.0%. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.9% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024, due to tighter monetary policy aided by lower international commodity prices. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases. Click here for more details.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly positive as key markets reopened from the long weekend and following the recovery seen on Wall Street owing to a bout of dovish-leaning Fed commentary.
ASX 200 was lifted as utilities and tech led the broad-based gains across sectors and with the index unfazed by the mixed consumer and business confidence data releases.
Nikkei 225 outperformed on return from holiday and got its first opportunity to react to the key market themes including last week’s US jobs data, the Israel-Hamas conflict and recent Fed rhetoric.
KOSPI gained with chipmakers boosted after reports that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will be allowed to supply US chip equipment to their China factories indefinitely without separate US approvals.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong lifted by strength in tech and property, while the mainland lagged amid underwhelming holiday spending and lingering debt concerns after Country Garden flagged it would not be able to meet all offshore obligations.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China reportedly weighs new stimulus and higher deficit to meet growth target, according to Bloomberg sources. Policymakers are weighing the issuance of at least CNH 1tln (USD 137bln) of additional sovereign debt for spending on infrastructure. Could raise this year’s budget deficit to “well above” the 3% cap set in March sources added. An announcement could come as early as this month, but talks are ongoing and plans can change.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1781 vs exp. 7.2758 (prev. 7.1789).
China’s Commerce Minister Wang said in talks with the delegation of US senators that the US-China economic and trade relationship is very important to the two countries and China will not avoid competition but it should be fair and based on international rules. Wang said both sides had rational and pragmatic discussions and China hopes the US is to specify the boundaries of security accurately, as well as avoid politicising and generalising security issues, according to Reuters.
Country Garden (2007 HK) said it took various measures to alleviate liquidity pressure to minimise the impact on project construction and operations, while its liquidity position is expected to remain very tight in the short to medium term. Co. also said it had not made a due payment in the principal amount of HKD 470mln under certain of its indebtedness and expects that it will not be able to meet all offshore obligations when due or within relevant grace periods.
BoJ is reportedly mulling raising its FY23/24 core CPI target to near 3% from 2.5% forecast in July, according to Kyodo
DATA RECAP
Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Oct) 82.0 (Prev. 79.7)
Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence M/M (Oct) 2.9% (Prev. -1.5%)
Australian NAB Business Confidence (Sep) 1 (Prev. 2)
Australian NAB Business Conditions (Sep) 11 (Prev. 13)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 21.69 PTS OR .70% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 147.83 PTS OR 0.84% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 751.86 PTS OR 2.43% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.10 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.2990 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2984 /Oil DOWN TO 85.94 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 87.68 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
end
JAPAN
end
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
China considering another huge stimulus (higher deficit spending) to counter the effects of its property bust
(zerohedge)
China Considers Stimulus, Higher Deficit Spending To Counter Property Bust
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 07:45 AM
Wall Street analysts have recently cut China’s 2023 and 2024 economic growth. The world’s second-largest economy is at serious risk of missing Beijing’s GDP growth target for the second consecutive year and expanding below 5% for three years straight years – something not seen since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976.
A multi-year property downturn looks increasingly likely as China’s state-owned property developers now warn of widespread losses, fueling concerns that the housing crisis is expanding from the private sector to government-backed companies. Also, deflationary pressure has capped growth goals around 5%.
To counter the downturn, Beijing needs to deploy countercyclical policy tools. According to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, the government could soon announce a new wave of stimulus and expand the budget deficit above the 3% cap set in March. Another person said the official announcement about these new policies could come as early as this month but stressed talks are still ongoing.
“Policymakers are weighing the issuance of at least 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) of additional sovereign debt for spending on infrastructure such as water conservancy projects,” said the people.
Until now, the government has refrained from implementing extensive fiscal stimulus, even in the face of a worsening property downturn and increasing deflationary pressures. Maybe optically, Beijing wants more robust growth than the US amid rising tensions. Source: Bloomberg
“The ad hoc issuance of additional debt from the central government could provide extra policy support and more resources to re-engineer a stronger and faster recovery,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle Inc. “
Pang said, “China’s recovery story could be a relay race” stimulated by infrastructure spending and then fueled by spending among businesses and households.
“The plans, led by the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission, are subject to final approval by the State Council and legislators,” the people added.
According to Xiaojia Zhi, head of research at Credit Agricole CIB, the size of additional issuance under discussion is “modest,” or equivalent to about 0.7% of GDP.
“But the message would be positive,” Zhi said, adding that it’s a “reasonable consideration” given soft private demand, tight local fiscal conditions, and the ongoing property sector downturn. “The central government’s debt ratio remains low, and its balance sheet is still quite healthy.”
Here’s a summary of what Wall Street analysts are saying about potential new stimulus from China (list courtesy of Bloomberg):
Tommy Xie, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Ltd.
“I perceive this development as a constructive step toward addressing the issue of local government debt. While China’s aggregate government debt-to-GDP ratio aligns with those of many developed economies, the country’s distinct debt structure presents its own set of challenges.”
“The proposition to enable the central government to assume a larger portion of the debt emerges as a viable solution. This approach could alleviate the financial strain on local governments, fostering an environment where resources can be reallocated and optimized to stimulate growth and bolster economic sentiment.”
Xiaojia Zhi, head of research at Credit Agricole CIB
“China should do more to show they are committed to stabilize growth and boost demand. A modestly higher deficit by the central government should not be too concerning to investors. It’s necessary for the central bank to shoulder more responsibility to boost fiscal spending and stimulate demand.”
“While this is yet to be confirmed, I think this is a reasonable consideration, given that private demand is still soft, and local fiscal conditions remain tight given the property sector downturn. The central government debt ratio remains low, and its balance sheet still quite healthy. One trillion yuan is a modest amount — about 0.7% GDP — but the message would be positive.”
Kiyong Seong, lead Asia macro strategist at Societe Generale SA
“Mulling an additional bond issuance at this time of the year is a positive surprise. However, a speculated destination of infrastructure investment will dilute the positive impact. Therefore, there could be a marginal upside risk to China rates, but no meaningful downside impact on USD/CNY.”
“An additional bond issuance is not free, probably at the expense of a bit higher yields or at least smaller scale of a decline in bond yields going forwards. Then, it would be better to be spent on the area with more direct effect on consumption recovery.”
Ding Shuang, chief economist for greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc.
“The initiative would sound more reasonable if it was contemplated three months ago, when China just suffered a setback in its post-Covid recovery in the second quarter. Given the fiscal room under the approved budget is not fully utilized, and the economy has seen marginal improvement in August and September, I think the timing of introducing additional fiscal stimulus is questionable.”
He Wei, China economist at Gavekal Dragonomics
“It will lift the economy and increase the chance for China to reach GDP growth of 5% this year. If the additional sovereign debt can be used in time, it will bring a decent quarterly growth in the fourth quarter.”
Talk of a new round of stimulus comes as readers have been well-informed about the worsening property bust:
If Bloomberg’s report turns out to be just rumors – and no stimulus is seen – then the global economy will likely continue to deteriorate as most US CEOs warn of recession in 2024.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA
Saturday morning 8 am: I woke up to this:
Hal Turner Radio Show – Israel Under Attack! 800+ Missiles Fired from GAZA; HAMAS Enters Israel by land and by Air! IDF Declares “State of War”
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the country was “at war” on Saturday, after Palestinian militants in Gaza fired a deadly barrage of rockets and sent gunmen into Israeli territory in a major escalation of the long running conflict between the two sides.
The early-morning surprise attack has left at least 22 people dead and over 250 injured, according to Israel’s Magen David Adom (MDA) emergency rescue service. It comes on the 50th anniversary of the 1973 War in which Arab states blitzed Israel on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar.
Around 2,200 rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip into Israel on Saturday morning, according to the Israeli military, while armed gunmen infiltrated across the border in a ground assault into southern Israel.
Hamas, the Palestinian militant movement that runs Gaza and claimed responsibility for the attack, said it had captured several Israeli soldiers near the border after its fighters entered Israel by land, sea and air using paragliders.
Israel’s military has not confirmed reports of soldiers having been captured, but one video published by Reuters appeared to show Palestinian gunmen dragging an Israeli soldier out of a tank at the Gaza fence.
MDA also said that one of their ambulances had been taken into the Gaza Strip.
Dubbing the operation “Al-Aqsa Storm,” Hamas military commander Muhammad Al-Deif said in a recorded message that the group had “targeted the enemy positions, airports and military positions with 5,000 rockets” and that the assault on Israel was a response to attacks on women, the desecration of the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem and the ongoing siege of Gaza.
Residents look at the wreckage of destroyed vehicles in Ashkelon, a coastal city in southern Israel, following a rocket attack from the Gaza Strip.
Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images
People try to extinguish fire on cars following a rocket attack from the Gaza Strip.
Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images
IDF spokesman Lt Col Richard Hecht said in a briefing that Israeli forces “are fighting on the ground as we speak,” listing at least half a dozen locations where fighting is taking place, including several villages, two army bases and border crossings.
Residents have told Israeli broadcasters that some militants are attempting to break into their homes, and urging for help from Israeli forces.
Netanyahu has vowed that Hamas will “pay a price it has never known” for the attack. “Citizens of Israel, we are at war – not in an operation, not in rounds – at war,” he said in a video message.
The IDF has warned Israelis who live near Gaza to stay in their homes or head to shelters.
“In the last hour, the Hamas terrorist organization had begun a massive shooting of rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory, and terrorists infiltrated into Israeli territory in a number of different locations,” the IDF said in a statement. Sirens warning of incoming rockets continued for at least three hours after the initial barrage.
“The Hamas terrorist organization is the sovereign in the Gaza Strip and is responsible for this attack. It will face the consequences and responsibility for these events,” it added.
end
Israel’s “Pearl Harbor Moment”? Hundreds Dead, Horrifying Scenes Of Entire Families Kidnapped & Whisked Into Gaza
SATURDAY, OCT 07, 2023 – 02:30 PM
Update(1430ET): Former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) international spokesperson Jonathan Conricus has summed up what this day means for Israel, calling in the country’s “Pearl Harbor” moment.
Town-by-town and farm-by-farm fighting is still underway given Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) reportedly control swathes of southern territory and even military outposts in Israel.
Netanyahu and his cabinet now must be contemplating what will surely be a high-risk rescue operation and potential ground incursion.
Every hour results in even more incredible, shocking footage being released of dead Israeli soldiers and civilians. The Times of Israel is reporting that over 200 Israelis have been killed, and at least 1,000 injured. The death toll is also mounting into the hundreds on the Gaza side as Israel retaliates.
In some instances, there are what look like Israeli soccer moms and their families being escorted barefoot across the border.
Video footage suggests at least dozens of Israelis have been taken captive, possibly even hundreds.
Grandmothers, men, women, children – the young and old – are being paraded in front of Hamas and PIJ cameras…
At the same time, the expected Israeli aerial assault has begun. In some instances entire apartment housing blocks have been leveled.
There are reports saying that the IDF has taken back some of the bases seized by small teams of Palestinian militants earlier in the day.
…all of this after what was clearly a well-coordinated attack long in planning:
But what the world woke up to at the start of Saturday were unprecedented scenes of Israelis in retreat…
Rockets have continued to reach Tel Aviv from Gaza, and air raid sirens are active across many parts of the country.
Gaza apartments flattened by Israeli strikes…
* * *
Palestinian militants on Saturday morning launched an “unprecedented” infultration attack on Israel, the biggest in years, sending fighters over the border from Gaza, firing thousands of rockets and killing dozens of Israelis. In response, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a call-up of reservists and said “we are at war.”
Here are the latest highlights from the rapidly changing situation:
Militant group Hamas launched a sustained barrage of more than 5,000 rockets in a coordinated attack by land, sea and air. According to the NYT, the Hamas assault from Gaza on southern Israel has had few precedents in its complexity and scale, invading several Israeli towns and firing thousands of rockets toward cities as far away as Jerusalem.
The Israeli military said that at least 2,200 rockets had been fired into Israel by 11 a.m. on Saturday and that armed gunmen had crossed the border fence in several locations along Israel’s perimeter with Gaza, a poor coastal enclave that has been under blockade by Israel and neighboring Egypt for 16 years.
In addition to land, the militants also crossed into Israel by sea and air, according to the Israeli military. By late morning, at least 22 Israelis had been killed in the surprise attacks from Gaza and hundred more injured according to Israel’s main ambulance service, and Israel had retaliated with massive strikes on Gazan cities, killing at least one Palestinian, according to local reports.
Palestinian militants infiltrated at least seven Israeli communities and army bases this morning, according to the Israeli military spokesman, Lt. Col. Richard Hecht. He said militants had reached the city of Sderot; the small towns of Kfar Azza, Nahal Oz, Magen, Beeri; the military bases of Reim and Zikim, which are close to towns of the same name; and the militarized border checkpoint at Erez. Fighting was ongoing at or near the at least three of those places, he said.
Israel’s emergency services said 22 people have been killed in the surprise attacks from Gaza and hundred more injured.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country was now “at war” and that he had convened the heads of the security forces and instructed them to first clear all Israeli villages of Palestinian militants who had entered from Gaza.
Al Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, said that there was a military operation “in defense of the Aqsa mosque,” the hotly contested holy site in Jerusalem that thousands of Jews have visited in recent weeks, and against the Israeli blockade.
Israeli hospitals said they had received hundreds of wounded. Soroka Medical Center in the southern city of Beersheba had admitted more than 80 people, with some “in very difficult condition,” a hospital spokeswoman said. The ambulance service, Magen David Adom, issued an urgent call for blood.
Israel Defense Forces said they were carrying out strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza in response to the attacks on Israel.
Air-raid sirens sounded in Jerusalem, while explosions were heard in Tel Aviv
More details:
The ruling Hamas militant group in the Gaza Strip carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel at daybreak Saturday, firing thousands of rockets as dozens of fighters infiltrated the heavily fortified border in several locations by air, land and sea, catching the country off guard on a major holiday.
Several hours after the invasion began, Hamas militants were still fighting gunbattles inside several Israeli communities in a surprising show of strength that shook the country. Israel’s national rescue service said at least 22 people have been killed, dozens of Israelis taken hostage, and hundreds wounded, making it the deadliest attack in Israel in years.
At least 561 wounded people were being treated in Israeli hospitals, including at least 77 who were in critical condition, according to an Associated Press count based on public statements and calls to hospitals.
There was no official comment on casualties in Gaza, but Associated Press reporters said they witnessed the funerals of 15 people who were killed and saw another eight bodies arrive at a local hospital. It was not immediately clear if they were fighters or civilians.
As the AP also reports, social media was replete with videos of Hamas fighters parading what appeared to be stolen Israeli military vehicles through the streets and at least one dead Israeli soldier within Gaza being dragged and trampled by an angry crowd of Palestinians shouting “Allahu Akbar.”
Hamas has invaded towns in southern Israel and is shooting people (warning: disturbing)…
Videos released by Hamas appeared to show at least three Israelis captured alive. The military declined to give details about casualties or kidnappings as it continued to battle the infiltrators.
“We are at war,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised address, declaring a mass army mobilization. “Not an ‘operation,’ not a ‘round,’ but at war.” “The enemy will pay an unprecedented price,” he added, promising that Israel would “return fire of a magnitude that the enemy has not known.”
At a meeting of top security officials later on Saturday, Netanyahu said the first priority was to “cleanse the area” of enemy infiltrators, then to “exact a huge price from the enemy,” and to fortify other areas so that no other militant groups join the war.
The serious invasion on Simchat Torah, a normally joyous day when Jews complete the annual cycle of reading the Torah scroll, revived painful memories of the 1973 Mideast war practically 50 years to the day, in which Israel’s enemies launched a surprise attack on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar.
Comparisons to one of the most traumatic moments in Israeli history sharpened criticism of Netanyahu and his far-right allies, who had campaigned on more aggressive action against threats from Gaza. Political commentators lambasted the government over its failure to anticipate what appeared to be a Hamas attack unseen in its level of planning and coordination.
The Israeli military struck targets in Gaza in response for some 2,500 rockets that sent air raid sirens wailing constantly as far north as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, some 80 kilometers (50 miles) away. It said its forces were engaged in gunfights with Hamas militants who had infiltrated Israel in at least seven locations. The fighters had sneaked across the separation fence and even invaded Israel through the air with paragliders, the army said.
Israeli TV broadcast footage of explosions tearing through the Gaza-Israel border fence, followed by what appeared to be Palestinian gunmen riding into Israel on motorcycles. Gunmen also reportedly entered on pickup trucks.
It was not immediately clear what prompted Hamas to launch the attacks, which would have likely required months of planning. But over the past year Israel’s far-right government has ramped up settlement construction in the occupied West Bank, Israeli settler violence has displaced hundreds of Palestinians there, and tensions have flared around a flashpoint Jerusalem holy site.
The shadowy leader of Hamas’ military wing, Mohammed Deif, announced the start of what he called “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm.” The Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem is the third holiest site in Islam, and is located on the holiest site for Jews, who refer to it as the Temple Mount.
“Enough is enough,” Deif, who does not appear in public, said in the recorded message, as he called on Palestinians from east Jerusalem to northern Israel to join the fight. “Today the people are regaining their revolution.”
In a televised address, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned that Hamas had made “a grave mistake” and promised that “the state of Israel will win this war.”
The infiltration of fighters into southern Israel marked a major escalation by Hamas that forced millions of Israelis to hunker down in safe rooms. Cities and towns emptied as the military closed roads near Gaza. Israel’s rescue service and the Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza appealed to the public to donate blood.
“We understand that this is something big,” Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli army spokesman, told reporters. He said the Israeli military had called up the army reserves.
Hecht declined to comment on how Hamas had managed to catch the army off guard. “That’s a good question,” he said.
Ismail Haniyeh, the exiled leader of Hamas, said that Palestinian fighters were “engaged in these historic moments in a heroic operation” to defend the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and the thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
Israel has built a massive fence along the Gaza border meant to prevent infiltrations. It goes deep underground and is equipped with cameras, high-tech sensors and sensitive listening technology. Israel has maintained a blockade over Gaza since Hamas seized control of the territory in 2007. The bitter enemies have fought four wars since then. There have also been numerous rounds of smaller fighting between Israel and Hamas and other smaller militant groups based in Gaza.
The blockade, which restricts the movement of people and goods in and out of Gaza, has devastated the territory’s economy. Israel says the blockade is needed to keep militant groups from building up their arsenals. The Palestinians say the closure amounts to collective punishment.
The escalation comes after weeks of heightened tensions along Israel’s volatile border with Gaza, and heavy fighting in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
Saturday’s wide-ranging assault threatened to undermine Netanyahu’s reputation as a security expert who would do anything to protect Israel. It also raised questions about the cohesion of a security apparatus crucial to the stability of a country locked in low-intensity conflicts on multiple fronts and facing threats from Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah congratulated Hamas on Friday, praising the attack as a response to “Israeli crimes” and saying the militants had “divine backing.” The group said its command in Lebanon was in contact with Hamas about the operation.
* * *
The timing of the assault was striking, hitting Israel at one of the lowest moments in its history. It followed months of profound anxiety about the cohesion of Israeli society and the readiness of its military, a crisis set off by the government’s efforts to reduce the power of the judiciary. And the violence came 50 years and a day after the Yom Kippur War of 1973, when Israel was also surprised by a complex Arab attack, leading to huge Israeli losses and soul-searching about the state of the country.
Muhammad Deif, the leader of the military wing of Hamas, the Islamic militant organization that controls Gaza, said in a recorded message that the group had decided to launch an “operation” so that “the enemy will understand that the time of their rampaging without accountability has ended.”
In response to the Hamas attack, the Israeli military said it launched strikes against 17 military compounds and locations connected to Hamas’s leadership in Gaza. The army released videos of strikes on cars, Palestinian militants and other targets. Dozens of air force jet fighters launched the attacks, the Israeli military said.
The Israel Defense Force has 169,000 active-duty troops and 465,000 reservists and remains the Middle East’s most formidable force, supplied with some of the most advanced drones and other weapons from Israel’s technology sector and from the U.S., which provides Israel with $3.8 billion in annual military assistance.
The Israeli military has conducted frequent raids in Palestinian cities and refugee camps, with bloody confrontations ensuing with well-armed militants. The army also flooded southern Israel with ground troops to manage the incursion, it said.
The IDF said it had named the counter offensive against Hamas operation swords of iron.
Meanwhile, as the WSJ details, the declaration of war by Israel against Hamas comes at a time of turmoil in Israeli politics.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced a backlash against legislation introduced to limit the power of the Supreme Court. His coalition passed the first part of the law in July, prompting mass protests and raising fears about Israel’s national security.
Thousands of military reservists said at the time they would quit as a result of the change to the law, and union leaders and medical professionals threatened mass work stoppages. Military officials have warned that the legislation was undermining unity within the military.
The law takes away the Supreme Court’s ability to nullify government decisions it finds “unreasonable in the extreme”—a concept that lawmakers in Netanyahu’s coalition said was nebulous and allowed liberal judges to overturn the will of an increasingly right-wing electorate.
The effort to overhaul the judiciary has been the governing coalition’s priority since Netanyahu was re-elected last year. Coalition members have said the government plans to move ahead with the next part of the overhaul, which would aim to change the way judges are appointed, after the Israeli parliament, or Knesset, reconvenes in mid-October. The law is being challenged in Israel’s Supreme Court.
* * *
Western nations condemned the incursion and reiterated their support for Israel, while others called for restraint on both sides.
“The U.S. unequivocally condemns the unprovoked attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israeli civilians,” said Adrienne Watson, spokeswoman for the U.S. National Security Council. “We stand firmly with the government and people of Israel and extend our condolences for the Israeli lives lost in these attacks.”
Watson said Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, has spoken with his Israeli counterpart, Tzachi Hanegbi.
Saudi Arabia, which has been in talks with the U.S. about normalizing relations with Israel, released a statement calling on both sides to exercise restraint. The kingdom said it had repeatedly warned about “ the dangers of the situation exploding as a result of the continued occupation (and) the Palestinian people being deprived of their legitimate rights.”
* * *
Finally, there is some speculation that Iran may get dragged into what is rapidly emerging as the worst Middle-Eastern crisis in years, with various pro-Israeli hawks claiming that the Hamas attack would have only occurred with explicit Iranian backing. If Israel does indeed attack Iran, as it has hinted it would do for years, may we suggest you fill up your gas tank.
END
Over 100 Bodies Found In Israeli Kibbutz; Biden Confirms 11 Americans Killed & “Likely” More In Captivity
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 05:35 AM
Update(1905ET): The numbers of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas has been revised upward to an estimated 150. By Monday’s end at least 900 Israelis have been reported killed and nearly 2,400 wounded since the Saturday surprise assault from Gaza. Palestinian emergency sources report 560 dead and over 2,700 wounded in Gaza has heavy Israeli bombardment of the strip has continued.
In one single kibbutz near the border, at least 108 bodies have been discovered amid the ongoing Israeli search, rescue and recovery efforts:
Israeli volunteer rescue organization ZAKA said Monday night that it had discovered more than 100 bodies in Kibbutz Be’eri near the Gaza border.
“Large teams cleared bodies all day from kibbutz Be’eri,” the organization said. “There were weapons everywhere, grenades, and RPGs. We cleared 108 bodies and we are not done yet.”
The New York Times has also begun to piece together eyewitness accounts of the Saturday invasion into southern Israel, as more identifies of the kidnapped have come to light:
The hostages were seized from homes in towns along Israel’s border with Gaza — including the Kalderons’ small village of Kibbutz Nahal Oz — as well as from military bases and an enormous outdoor dance party.
They include civilians, soldiers, people with disabilities, children, grandparents and even a 9-month-old baby. The hostages are also believed to include at least one Palestinian resident of Israel, a bus driver who spent the night near the outdoor party after driving Israelis there, his family said.
The capture of so many Israelis by Palestinian militants has taken the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into uncharted territory — not only in the sheer number of hostages, but also in the dire threats Hamas is making against them.
And The Washington Post has verified some of the horrifying footage to have emerged, including summary executions of Israeli hostages in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas/PIJ incursion:
At least four Israelis taken hostage by Hamas during their unprecedented incursion into Israel on Saturday were killed soon after being taken captive, according to videos reviewed by The Washington Post. Graphic video shared on Telegram on Oct. 8, and verified by The Post, shows multiple bodies in the street in Be’eri, a kibbutz in southern Israel, just yards from where Hamas militants were filmed walking with several civilians who appear to be those same hostages.
Huge swathes of Gaza are under rubble…
Netanyahu in a Monday speech vowed, “What we will do to our enemies in the coming days will reverberate with them for generations.”
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s involvement from the north appears to be growing.
The US has issued a stern warning for the Lebanese Shia paramilitary group not to enter the conflict. President Biden on Monday said that at least 11 Americans were confirmed killed. He said there are “likely” more being held hostage. Many of these may be dual citizens. Here’s part of Biden’s statement:
“It’s heart wrenching,” Biden said in a statement. “These families have been torn apart by inexcusable hatred and violence.”
Biden said his administration is aware other U.S. citizens are missing and that they are working with Israeli officials to learn more about their whereabouts, though he didn’t elaborate on how many Americans are unaccounted for as the conflict rages.
“The safety of American citizens — whether at home or abroad — is my top priority as President,” Biden said.
“While we are still working to confirm, we believe it is likely that American citizens may be among those being held by Hamas,” he continued. “I have directed my team to work with their Israeli counterparts on every aspect of the hostage crisis, including sharing intelligence and deploying experts from across the United States government to consult with and advise Israeli counterparts on hostage recovery efforts.”
Below is a brief review of other developments of the last 24-48 hours, via Academy Securities:
Israel has seized control of the communities around Gaza that were at the center of the horrific attacks by Hamas over the past 48 hours.
Israel’s Ministry of Defense has ordered a “complete siege” of Gaza cutting off electricity, food, fuel, and water to the region and has called up 300,000 reservists.
Israel flew in munitions from the U.S. over the weekend, including GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs and the expectation is that Israel will ask for small arms, ammunition, tank rounds, and Tamir interceptors for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.
The U.S. is also sending the USS Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean to show solidarity with Israel and to discourage other parties from getting involved/supporting Hamas in this conflict, i.e., Iran and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah exchanged artillery and rocket fire on Sunday with Israeli forces raising concern of an escalation of the violence, but Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah BouHabib said that his government has been assured by Hezbollah that it will not join the fighting unless Israel “harasses” Lebanon.
While unconfirmed by U.S. intelligence (and denied by Iran), Iranian security officials reportedly helped plan Hamas’s attack and gave the “green light” for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that creating a Palestinian state was the “most reliable” solution for peace in Israel and could see Russia as a peacemaker (it has a relationship with all the parties involved).
And thoughts on market-related impact via The Academy T-Report:
How far does Israel go, given that this has shaken the nation to its core. The veil of safety has been pierced. Maybe the better question is how far can they go without turning a part of the world against them? While the most vicious and deadly battles will be fought in the streets (and underground) there will be information and misinformation campaigns trying to shift global opinion. Can you “win” the battle but risk “losing” the war? This will be tricky, and the relative small size of the Gaza Strip and a high population density will make it extremely difficult to be effective and not harm civilians. This will be a tough balancing act.
Do others get involved? While many find it difficult to believe that Hamas acted alone, that remains the official line. This has not escalated into a battle for Israel on multiple fronts. Iran has not been brought into the war, which would up the ante significantly.
While not directly part of this discussion, our increasing concern that our global adversaries understand that inflation has become an “Achilles Heel” and this will only make adversaries more aware of that.
Over the next 48 hours, we should get answers to these questions, which will help from how the markets and global economy and companies will respond (many companies with operations in Israel have faced an incredibly difficult and scary weekend, that is continuing into this week).
On markets fronts:
Oil should be higher. There is risk to shipping. There is risk to whatever Iranian oil has been making its way to the market (especially if they are implicated in any way). The Saudis could increase production to help, but how this is being viewed on social media in the region could shape their behavior significantly (the information war will be important). Our inability, unwillingness, or lack of urgency in replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not helpful as our “insurance policy” was used and hasn’t been re-upped.
Treasury yields lower. It doesn’t matter what oil does, yields will be lower. The price of oil is not in the Fed’s control right now, but the risk of economic slowdown is. The risk of escalation and spreading the violence is real and should keep investors focused on safety. Many (including us) thought treasury yields were too high before this, so look for a push to lower yields, regardless of what oil does. Oil is a secondary factor in the rates market right now.
Stocks are a wildcard. I’ve been in the “bad news is good news” for stocks and that seemed to play out again today. I don’t know how much “bad news” stocks can take before the lower yields/higher stocks algos fail and we get a more traditional “flight to safety” like we had overnight. If things don’t escalate, stocks can continue to squeeze higher as so much negativity was priced in (while at the same time pricing in a hawkish Fed). I’d be reducing equity exposure here, still long, but this “bad news” has the risk of being really bad.
* * *
Update(1350ET): Casualties in the Gaza Strip are soaring (at over 560 dead) after a full day of very heavy, frequent airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force. For the first time Monday, Israel says it has pacified the border, with a military spokesperson announcing, “There are no terrorists crossing the fence from Gaza into Israel.” The confirmed death toll among Israelis is now over 900.
“Since this morning, there have been a few encounters with terrorists. There have been none at all in the last few hours,” the military spokesman said. Israel earlier announced a full “siege” of Gaza, and there are signs a ground invasion could be imminent. Hamas and Gaza militants have announced holding at least 100 hostages, but now Hamas is threatening to execute them. Netanyahu on Sunday had warned Palestinian civilians to begin clearing out, but as some observers have noted, where will they go?
According to the latest from the Times of Israel on Hamas’ new threat to kill more Israelis:
The Hamas terror group is threatening to begin executing hostages in response to Israeli strikes in Gaza carried out without warnings, the spokesperson for Hamas’s Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades says, according to Gaza’s Shehab news outlet.
“From this hour, any targeting of our people in the safety of their homes, without warning, will be met with the execution of civilian hostages, which will be broadcast with video and audio,” says the spokesperson, who goes by the nom de guerre Abu Obeida.
A defense official reportedly told Knesset members in a briefing earlier in the day that Israel was not dropping dummy bombs on roofs of buildings set to be targeted, meant to warn civilians to flee.
Many of these hostages, foreigners among them, are believed to have been kidnapped from the Saturday music festival which had been taking place in the southern desert, near the border with Gaza.
Meanwhile more shocking footage has emerged as Hamas invaded the event and began shooting civilians at random:
* * *
Update (1100ET): Israel has confirmed its forces are now striking targets in southern Lebanon, as the conflict slides into the much-feared scenario of a two-front war… Hamas in the south, Hezbollah in the north. Interestingly, it seems that Gaza-based militants are trying to provoke Hezbollah’s entry into the war, given they need the firepower and for the IDF to be bogged down in the north:
ALERT Palestinian Islamic Jihad claims Israel infiltration from Lebanon: official
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a brief statement on Monday that its helicopters are currently striking in Lebanese territory. No further details were provided.
Earlier, the IDF said a “number of armed suspects” who “infiltrated” into Israel from Lebanon were killed, and that IDF soldiers were searching the area.
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers said in a statement on Monday that it has reported explosions near Al-Boustan in southwest Lebanon.
There are also reports IDF heavy armor has been seen headed to northern border with Lebanon:
Cross-border attacks are intensifying in the growing tit-for-tat:
* * *
The total death toll among both sides as all-out war between Israel and Gaza militants enters its third day has topped 1,100 – with most of these deaths being Israeli, at an estimated 800.
Israel’s defense minister has as of Monday ordered a “complete siege” of Gaza which alarmingly includes cutting off all supply of electricity, fuel, and food, but even water for a densely packed population of 3+ million people in the strip.Image via Fox
Yoav Gallant said, “I have given an order – Gaza will be under complete siege.” He added: “We are fighting barbarians and will respond accordingly.”
At the same time a statement from energy minister Israel Katz confirmed, “I instructed that the water supply from Israel to Gaza be cut off immediately.”
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have reportedly retaken all the southern towns and settlements which were hit hardest by Saturday’s shock invasion of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants from Gaza.
A fuller picture of the devastation is still emerging. Israeli authorities have confirmed recovery of 260 bodies from the site of the desert music festival which was among the first to be invaded by Hamas gunmen…
Meanwhile, the IDF continues to pound the Gaza Strip on an unprecedented scale, with top Israeli officials increasingly voicing their approval for a ground invasion, which some say is imminent:
Israeli strikes in Gaza have killed at least 493, including dozens of children, and left 2,651 injured, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
An incursion by Gaza militants of this scale has not been seen in Israel since the nation’s founding in 1948.
But if an Israeli ground assault does ensue, it will be deeply controversial inside Israel given the likely high casualties the IDF will take on (as has been the case in prior high-risk ground incursions).
There are emerging reports that Gaza-based terrorists have beheaded IDF soldiers:
At the same time, Hamas and PIJ terrorists are now holding some 100 Israeli hostages taken in Saturday’s cross border raids.
According to Reuters, Qatar is currently seeking to mediate hostage negotiations. The Palestinian side has demanded the release of some 5,000 of their own who have been held in Israeli jails, sometimes for years.
There are believed to be Americans (or dual US-Israeli citizens) currently in captivity in Gaza:
A spokesperson for the NSC said the agency can confirm the deaths of “several” U.S. citizens, but did not provide a specific number.
“We extend our deepest condolences to the victims and to the families of all those affected, and wish those injured a speedy recovery,” the spokesperson wrote in a statement shared with The Hill.
Additional US media sources reported that so far four Americans have been confirmed killed. And later in the morning on Monday the State Department announced nine Americans have been killed.
U.S. STATE DEPT SPOKESPERSON CONFIRMS THE DEATH OF NINE AMERICANS IN ISRAEL
BBC is also reporting that at least 10 British citizens are feared dead or missing. According to Israeli officials, the numbers of Americans confirmed to be in captivity could grow as more details emerge:
Ron Dermer, Israel’s minister for strategic affairs, confirmed American citizens were among those taken captive but gave no details about them or those who had been killed.
“Unfortunately, I can’t,” he told CNN. “We have a lot of dual citizens in Israel. I suspect there are several, but we’re still trying to sort through all of all this information after this horrific surprise attack and we’ll make sure to put that information out so that the loved ones of these people who were killed and who are held hostage, they know as quickly as possible.”
On Sunday the Pentagon announced it is sending an aircraft carrier and warships near Israel in a “show of support” – also as Americans as well as dual passport holders and tourists scramble to get out.
Ben Gurion international airport has come under a barrage of rockets fired from the strip, disrupting all flights in and out.
developing…
end
“It’s Not A Battlefield, It’s A Massacre”: Israeli Army Takes Foreign Press To Scenes Of Kibbutz Slaughter
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 09:05 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have announced they have completely sealed the border with Gaza amid continued body recovery operations and assessment of damage. This as Israel has newly announced that over 1,000 Israelis have been killed.
The IDF and Israeli officials are also for the first time taking foreign journalists to the scenes where the armed raids out of Gaza took place on Sunday, including to Kfar Azza, a kibbutz near the border where some 70 Jewish residents were killed. The IDF has denounced the “massacre” while giving foreign press a tour of the empties out settlement.Israeli victims in Kfar Aza, via AFP“It’s not a war, it’s not a battlefield, it’s a massacre,” IDF Major General Itai Veruv was quoted as saying. “You see the babies, their mothers and their fathers, in their bedrooms, and in their protected rooms, and how the terrorists killed them — it’s not a war.”
“It’s something that I never saw in my life,” he said. “We used to imagine our grandmothers and grandfathers during the pogroms in Europe. It’s not something that we have seen in recent history.”
Another one, Kibbutz Be’eri, was the gruesome scene of the recovery of at least 108 bodies, while the music festival in the desert where footage of the initial Hamas invasion was captured had at least 260 bodies.
In Israel, at 1,008 people have died and over 2,600 others have been injured, but assessing total casualties and also identifying the deceased has been a long, difficult process – also under war conditions as missiles fly above. One top Netanyahu aide, Yossi Shelley, is under fire for some controversial statements to the press:
Responding to questions during an interview on Channel 12 about the government’s reaction time, Shelley said that “the party made a not insubstantial contribution to the chaos,” adding “I’m not casting blame but sometimes there are cumulative conditions, this is a situation which no one planned.”
Shelley said the process of identifying the fatalities and the hostages was like “standing in line at the supermarket, it doesn’t matter how many shop assistants there are, sometimes it’s impossible to deal with everyone.”
On Tuesday he tried to clarify the statements amid anger from victims’ families. Shelley said, “I never in any way intended to say that the partygoers contributed to the results of the tragic event. The youngsters who were celebrating, including my beloved cousin Lori who was murdered, celebrate like the people of Israel should do on their festivals.”
In Gaza, the death toll continues to mount amid constant Israeli airstrikes and shelling, with Al Jazeera reporting that the dead have reached 770.
While a horrific massacre by Islamic terrorists infiltrating southern Israel played out over the weekend, a massacre of mostly civilians by the overwhelming airpower of Israel’s air force is ongoing in the Gaza Strip. Nearly 200,000 Gazans have been displaced at this point…
On social media, there are graphic scenes of death, violence, and suffering widely circulating.
Politico has decided to go after Elon Musk and X for lack of censorship related to some of these videos:
Videos and images of mass shootings, kidnapped civilians and soldiers and other violence linked with Hamas’ attack on Israel are being widely shared on X, formerly known as Twitter, in violation of the company’s own rules against inciting violence.
POLITICO’s review of Elon Musk’s social media platform in the wake of Hamas’ attacks, which began on October 7, discovered scores of videos that allegedly showed militants murdering civilians and Israeli soldiers; viral hashtags associated with the ongoing violence that praised Hamas’ activities; and social media posts that included graphic pictures of those killed and antisemitic hate speech.
However, platforms like X are in part helping people to track missing persons, or to identify the deceased, as well as in some cases their killers. Image: Times of Israel
Meanwhile, even though the situation in southern Israel is largely pacified under the IDF, Israel’s military still believes some terrorist infiltrators are present, but are hiding. A search operation by Israeli forces is still active after the majority of civilian residents from communities near Gaza have been evacuated:
Hamas fighters are believed to be “still hiding” in some communities in southern Israel even after the Israeli military took back control, according to Israel Defense Forces spokesman Maj. Doron Spielman.
“We are in control of the communities, but we actually assume that there are Hamas terrorists that are still hiding in these areas, including in the road where we are now,” Spielman told ABC News during an interview Monday in Sderot, Israel. “In all these communities, we’ve seen terrorist come out of hiding. Just yesterday, they took over an ambulance.”
“We’re still being very, very careful,” he added. “This is a war zone with active terrorists that are operating here.”
Videos have emerged showing highway shootouts between Israeli forces and Hamas which happened Saturday into Sunday:
There are also many videos documenting kidnappings which unfolded in real-time:
Hamas commandos, clearly well-armed and well prepared, filmed themselves breaching Israeli settlements and setting fire to the dwellings…
Graphic: The below shows the killing of a man who tried to flee (just off-scene)…
IDF reinforcements have continued to muster at the border. While the ground invasion has yet to start, it is expected and likely imminent, given Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu told President Biden on Sunday that “We have to go in,” in reference to a ground operation. He further conceded this will be a “long and difficult war.”
END
IRAN
coward!
Khamenei Distances Iran From Hamas Operation, Fearing Israeli Attack, As Rocket Salvo Fired From Lebanon
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 01:10 PM
Update(1310ET): The Israeli army has reportedly issued an order for citizens to evacuate the Metula settlement, which lies just along the northern border with Lebanon. This after a salvo of some 15 rockets was fired from southern Lebanon in a suspected Hezbollah operation. “In response to the launches identified from Lebanese territory toward Israeli territory, IDF soldiers are currently responding with artillery fire,” regional sources report. The IDF said it intercepted several of them, while most landed in open fields. Things are steadily escalating there:
A senior Israeli officer was killed in a confrontation with militants on the frontier with Lebanon on Monday, Israel’s military has confirmed.
The [Israeli] military said troops and aircraft killed two “terrorist infiltrators” who had crossed into Israeli territory. Palestinian Islamic Jihad claimed that they were its members.
Later, at least three militants from Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement were killed as the military attacked sites in Lebanon in response to mortar fire.
Still, both Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have thus far narrowly avoided a spiral into all-out war at the Israel-Lebanon border. “What’s happening here seems to be a kind of contained tension. Lebanon is not yet a war zone. However, it’s an area of operation. But it seems it’s also a space for both sides to exchange messages,” an Al Jazeera’s correspondent, Ali Hashem, has observed.
Iran, meanwhile, has been on the defensive after major US media, especially the Wall Street Journal, cited US sources who alleged Tehran supported, funded and helped plan Hamas’ deadly rampage across southern Israel on Saturday. There’s speculation that the Iranians fear Israel’s Netanyahu government could begin targeting sites inside Iran. A regional source reports Tuesday on the unprecedented softening of rhetoric from Iran’s leadership, related to Hamas and Israel as follows:
Iran’s supreme leader has strongly rejected any involvement in the Hamas movement’s surprise attack on Israel. The public maneuvering, which involved Ayatollah Ali Khamenei strikingly repeating his rejection of an Iranian role three times in a 90-second span, follows controversial claims in US media that Tehran helped plan the Oct. 7 blitz.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a high-ranking Iranian source told Amwaj.media that Khamenei’s remarks—his first since the Hamas offensive—may have been sparked by “him seeing the direction of the Israeli public diplomacy campaign.” Rejecting concerns of an impending Israeli attack as Khamenei’s underlying motive, the source said the supreme leader’s comments are “pre-emptive” as opposed to reactive.
Addressing the rare decision by Khamenei to be so vocal in his rejection of an Iranian role in the Palestinian blitz, a second senior source in Tehran told Amwaj.media, “Give me one reason why he should do otherwise.” Also speaking anonymously given the sensitivity of the matter, he continued, “Why should one give them the perfect justification they need for an attack?” At the same time, the source dismissed the notion that being so explicit in rejecting a role in the Hamas attack indicates a sense of weakness on the part of Iran.
The Pentagon has meanwhile warned both Iran and Hezbollah against jumping into the conflict in a fresh statement:
The senior US official said Iran, Hezbollah and other groups backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) “should think twice” before joining in the war.
“Iran-backed adversaries like Lebanese Hezbollah should not question the commitment of the US government to support the defense of Israel,” the official added.
“We believe that the folks in the region understand what those capabilities are,” the White House’s National Security Council coordinator John Kirby, a former US Navy rear admiral, told reporters Monday evening.
This as the following just came across the news wires:
US MAY DEPLOY A SECOND AIRCRAFT CARRIER NEAR ISRAEL: WSJ
While there are yet no indicators that the US will conduct anything other than a “show of support” with the naval hardware dispatched near Israel, it will certainly be in a position to conduct some level of active intervention on Israel’s side if ordered by the White House:
The IDF said it had mobilized 300,000 troops and declared a full siege halting the flow of water, food and electricity into Gaza on Monday.
The arrival of the USS Ford – which is carrying an air wing and is accompanied by the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and four US Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers – is intended to send an unmistakable warning to Iran and the militant groups it backs throughout the region not to join in the conflict by launching their own attacks against Israel, Biden administration officials said.
The strike group led by the Ford is capable of intelligence collection and “long-range strikes,” a senior US defense official told reporters on Monday, noting its arrival signals “the United States is postured to respond to any contingencies and minimize the risk of a wider conflict.”
Republicans in Congress continue to question Biden’s unfreezing of the $6 billion for Iran. Some are calling for a refreeze in light of the Hamas attack. According to The Hill:
Blackburn and other Republican senators wrote a letter to Biden dated Oct. 9 calling on him to stop the flow of the $6 billion into Iran, even though the funds are only supposed to be used for humanitarian purposes.
“Your administration claims these funds are only available for humanitarian use, but money is fungible, and there is significant risk they could be used to further efforts by Iran or Hamas against Israel,” they wrote.
“Moreover, allowing $6 billion to flow into Iran’s economy, even if the purpose is for humanitarian aid, allows the Iranian regime to reallocate even more funds to supporting terrorism,” they argued.
end
SYRIA/GOLAN HEIGHTS
This will bring this closer to a nuclear war as Syria launches missiles
(zerohedge)
Syria Launches Missiles On Golan Heights As US To Being ‘Surging’ Defense Aid To Israel
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 04:12 PM
Update(1612ET): The Syrian Army has fired missiles toward the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights Tuesday evening (local), breaking reports indicate. The Israeli Defense Force have confirmed the attack:
A number of launches from Syria aimed for Israel were identified a short while ago. Part of the launches crossed into Israeli territory and presumably fell in open areas.— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 10, 2023
This raises the risk of a broader conflict which spirals, given the earlier exchange of fire in northern Lebanon between Israel and likely Hezbollah positions. Al Jazeer senior correspondent Zeina Khodr writes on the significance of the Golan mortar fire from Syria:
Rocket from Syria lands in Israel occupied Golan Heights- it was a matter of time before a message is sent to Israel from this front … “multi front assault possible”.
This came within an hour of President Biden in a speech confirming that the US will begin ‘surging’ defense aid to Israel.
A senior defense official said the Pentagon was “surging support” to its closest Middle Eastern ally in response to what U.S. officials have said are the brutal new tactics that characterized the weekend assault byHamas militants into southern Israel. With the combined death toll exceeding 1,500, Israel’s government on Monday ordered a full-scale siege of the Gaza Strip, setting the stage for what could be a prolonged and bloody offensive in the small, densely populated Palestinian enclave.
Boeing accelerated delivery of 1,000 smart bombs to Israel as the country steps up retaliation against Hamas https://t.co/SyylmXE0TI— Bloomberg (@business) October 10, 2023
Meanwhile, various countries have begun evacuation efforts of their citizens from Tel Aviv:
LUFTHANSA T
TRUMP: WE ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER TO WORLD WARIII
“We Are In Grave Danger”: Trump Says Attack On Israel A Sign World War III Is Coming
Former President Donald Trump warned that the shocking and brutal attack by Hamas terrorists on Israeli civilians over the weekend has the makings of World War III.
In speaking to a massive crowd on Monday in Wolfeboro, New Hampshire, Trump drew ties between the Biden administration’s flooding of young male, military-aged unvetted immigrants into the country and the Pearl Harbor style-attack by Hamas.
He referred to the immigrants as “some of the same people who just attacked Israel” and said that under Biden’s open border policy, the United States has allowed “tens and thousands of terrorists into our country.”
“We are in grave danger of having World War III,” President Trump said during his campaign stop. “This will be world obliteration. This is a real deal.”
President Trump said that he “would stop World War III” if reelected. In reference to the ongoing attack by the Kremlin on Ukraine and the scenes of war in Israel and Gaza, he said neither bloodshed would ever have occurred under his command.
He also brought up the massive cache of military weapons the Biden administration left behind in Afghanistan when talking about the Israel attack by Hamas, which has been designated by the United States and other countries as a terrorist organization and has ties to other terrorist groups.
Ghazi Hamas, a spokesman for Hamas, told the BBC that the group had received support from the Iranian Islamic regime in its ambush of a small farming town in Israel.
Weapons
The Council on Foreign Relations published a warning on Oct. 9 that Hamas has potential relationships with the Taliban, which seized the $7 billion worth of U.S. military equipment left behind in the Biden administration’s 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.
President Trump and others, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) along with some U.S. veterans, have speculated that video footage of the unconscionable brutality committed by Hamas terrorists against both Israelis and nationalists show American weapons being used in the attacks.
The theory remains unsubstantiated, with Democrats quickly debunking the suggestion as a radical conspiracy.
The Biden administration initially reacted to the attack with a post on X, formerly Twitter, advising Israel to stand down and not respond to the grisly ambush on Israel, which included the shooting down of at least 260 concertgoers at a music festival.
The post was quickly taken down by the U.S. State Department but not before it ignited national outrage from those with the opposing view.
In a comment on X, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) called on “every single person involved in drafting and approving the post to be immediately expelled from the U.S. government.”
Len Khodorkovsky, a former deputy assistant secretary of state during the Trump administration, called the Biden administration’s call for Israel to stand down “pathetic” and that it “emboldens the terrorists and endangers the civilians.”
The White House has since stated that it “unequivocally condemns the attack of Hamas.” Americans are among the hundreds dead or missing. Dozens are also reported to have been taken hostage by Hamas.
President Trump’s appearance in New Hampshire was his third since the Israeli attacks, with two preceding ones in Iowa.
He drew so many supporters that a line of them wrapped around the Kingswood Arts Center, a large-scale state-of-theater performance center at the Kingswood Regional High School in the Lakes Region of New Hampshire.
His call to end the U.S. Department of Education to leave such policy-making to the states received an especially robust round of applause from the crowd—a proposal that has also been made by other GOP 2024 candidates including Nikki Haley, who has also received enthusiastic support.
Trump vs. Al Capone
President Trump also talked about the double standards behind his unprecedented indictments, saying he has been more of a target for prosecutors than famous career criminals. “Al Capone only got indicted once, I got indicted four times,” he said.
He questioned why he got indicted for complaining about transparency and accuracy of the 2020 election results, but former U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton did not when she complained about the 2016 election results in the same way.
Mrs. Clinton, who lost against President Trump, called him an “illegitimate president” on national television and implied that he knows he stole the election.
The Make America Great Again (MAGA) candidate referred to those prosecuting him as a “bunch of cuckoo birds” and said he ultimately considered the indictments a “badge of honor” because it was a sign he is fighting for the future of America.
He also talked about other double standards and hypocrisies, such as the Biden administration’s refusal to tap into the country’s domestic oil reserve to protect marine life; instead, pushing wind turbines that are known to kill marine life. He even drew parallels between the Democrats’ enthusiasm for electric cars and gender-transitioning children.
“Under a Trump administration, gasoline powered engines will be allowed but child sexual mutilation will not,” he said.
Mr. Trump did not make any mention of the proposal to make him interim speaker of the House, an idea he has said publicly he would consider.
A survey released over the weekend by YouGov shows that Republican voters overwhelmingly support a future House speaker that is “loyal to Trump.” According to the survey, which was conducted on behalf of CBS News, 84 percent polled called for a House speaker who would back President Trump and his policies.
Mr. Trump is seeking reelection as U.S. president on a crowded GOP ticket. He maintains a more than 50 percent lead over other candidates for the party nomination. The closest to him are former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog said Israel was facing “a very difficult moment,” writing in a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter.
“I wish to offer strength to the commanders and soldiers of the IDF, and to all the security forces and rescue services. I send my encouragement and strength to all the residents of Israel who are under attack,” he added.
CNN teams in Jerusalem heard rocket warning sirens and booms, likely the interceptions of incoming rockets, as sirens continued to sound around Israel.
The first round of rockets was fired at about 6:30 a.m. Saturday morning local time (11:30 p.m. ET), when most Israelis are likely to have been asleep.
It is rare for Palestinian militants to be able to make it into Israel from Gaza which is sealed off and heavily watched by Israel’s miltary.
Israel television Channel 12 reported that the infiltrators from Gaza had entered Kibbutz Beeri, saying that residents were urging the IDF to rush to the kibbutz.
Channel 12 also reported that infiltrators had taken hostages in Netiv HaAsara. Israeli authorities did not immediately confirm any details about those reports.
Social media footage obtained by CNN showed multiple masked gunmen in a pickup truck driving down a street in the Israeli city of Sderot. Gunfire could also be heard in the video.
One woman died and at least 15 people were wounded across southern and lowland regions of Israel in the militant attacks, Israel’s Magen David Adom rescue service said a mid-morning update on Saturday.
MDA said the woman who was killed was in her 60s, revising her age down from 70s, which CNN had earlier reported.
Residents in the Gaza Strip flee their homes.
Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images
Smoke billows from a residential building following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City.
Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images
Two people are in critical condition, six in moderate condition and seven have minor injuries, MDA said in a statement.
The MDA said teams “respond to areas of reported missile falls and live firing incidents,” and urged people to heed instruction from authorities and to carefully and promptly go to a protected area when an alarm sounds.
MDA spokesperson Zaki Heller also urged people to donate blood and said a special blood donation drive is being organized in Tel Aviv for Saturday morning “due to an urgent need.”
The rockets, which were witnessed by a CNN producer in Gaza, prompted sirens as far north as the Tel Aviv area, east to Beer Sheva, and many other locations in between.
Social media footage obtained by CNN showed the aftermath of a rocket strike in the coastal city of Ashkelon where multiple cars could be seen burning next to an apartment complex, a thick plume of black smoke billowing into the air.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant are conducting security assessments at Israel Defense Forces headquarters in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu’s office said.
Smoke is seen in the area of Rehovot, a city in central Israel, as rockets are launched from the Gaza Strip.
Ilan Rosenberg/Reuters
Gaza is one of the most densely packed places in the world, an isolated coastal enclave of almost 2 million people crammed into 140 square miles.
Governed by Hamas, the territory is largely cut off from the rest of the world by an Israeli blockade of Gaza’s land, air and sea dating back to 2007. Egypt controls Gaza’s southern border crossing, Rafah.
Israel has placed heavy restrictions on the freedom of civilian movement and controls the importation of basic goods into the narrow coastal strip.
END
Total blockade of food, water and petro. Israel will demand the hostages to be released. If not they all starve
(zerohedge)
Outrage After Israel Told Gazans To Flee To Egypt, Then Bombed Lone Border Crossing
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 11:20 AM
On Tuesday morning Israel bombed the Rafah crossing in the Gaza Strip, which is the only border crossing that Palestinians are able to use to flee to Egypt.
Hamas has claimed that the crossing has now been rendered impassable. “The Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday afternoon that it hit an underground tunnel for smuggling weapons and equipment in the Rafah area, on the Egypt-Gaza border, but did not confirm or deny hitting the crossing itself,” the Times of Israel is reporting.
Israel’s military (the IDF) reportedly conveyed a warning to Gazan officials just minutes before it was bombed. Also, the Egyptian side operating the crossing was warned just before the airstrike.
The Rafah bombing has caused international outrage given that in the hours and days prior, the Israeli government has repeatedly told Palestinians in Gaza to flee because massive airstrikes will continue. Many have wondered, but where do they go?
The Rafah crossing is essentially the only possibility of escape for Gaza civilians. The Washington Post has noted, “the Gaza Strip is just over twice the size of Washington, D.C., but has triple the population” – at around 2.3 million people.
The IDF has meanwhile tried to walk back some earlier statements which told Palestinians to go to Egypt:
Earlier in the day, a senior IDF spokesman advised Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to flee to Egypt, but the military issued a clarification shortly afterward.
“In recent days, the IDF has been instructing the population inside of the Gaza Strip to distance themselves from designated areas. We emphasize that there is no official call by Israel for residents of the Gaza Strip to exit into Egypt,” the IDF said in an English-language statement.
In the Gaza Strip, the death toll continues to soar as mostly civilians are experiencing the brunt of the retaliation after the Hamas terror campaign of the last days, with the the Palestinian health ministry saying the number of people killed has risen to 830, with 4,250 wounded, as cited in Al Jazeera.
Total blackout in Gaza as Israel has declared full siege…
Hospitals in Gaza are also reportedly overwhelmed, as gruesome scenes of wounded and dead men, women, and children continue to come out of the war-ravaged strip.
Rhetoric out of Israeli officials has continued to dehumanize all Palestinians in the strip, in an attempt to provide cover for the mass bombing campaign of militants and civilians alike…
Hal Turner Radio Show – UKRAINE SOLD WEAPONS TO HAMAS – USED AGAINST ISRAEL
Of course they did… they were selling weapons to anyone with cash or credit to buy .. you could buy Stinger missiles with overnight delivery across Europe Ukraine has it’s own jamming technology which has been reacted to by Russia. However, Israel never expected US technology to. E used against it. Another fine mess by incompetent fools
‘2023 The SUMMER of Dying Suddenly SLEEPING (while fully COVID-19 mRNA Vaccinated) – are these deaths actually accelerating? – 50 summer cases of SADS deaths in Sleep’ Makis substack below
Oct.3, 2023 – Columbus, OH – 31 year old Brian Baseler, OneAmerica Relationship Director died suddenly in his sleep. He had his COVID-19 Booster on Jan.30, 2022…
years? Representing a 2,500% increase in absolute number of reports in first year of the campaign when comparing historical values prior to 2021? Yes, Yes, Yes! The mRNA technology vaccine is deadly!
‘found the number of myocarditis reports in VAERS after COVID-19 vaccination in 2021 was 223 times higher than the average of all vaccines combined for the past 30 years. This represented a 2,500% increase in absolute number of reports in the first year of the campaign when comparing historical values prior to 2021. Demographic data revealed that myocarditis occurred most in youths (50%) and males (69%). 76% of cases resulted in emergency care and hospitalization. Of the total myocarditis reports, 92 individuals died (3%). Myocarditis was more likely after dose two (p < 0.00001) and individuals less than 30 years of age were more likely than individuals older than 30 to acquire myocarditis (p < 0.00001).’
WHO: ‘Meat Supply’ Will Cause ‘Next Pandemic’The globalist World Health Organization (WHO) has started warning that the “meat supply” will trigger the “next pandemic” by causing deadly pathogens to jump from animals to humans.READ MORE
Hillary Clinton Calls For ‘Formal Deprogramming’ Of Trump SupportersFailed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton gave up the game when she went on CNN and called for formal deprogramming of Trump supporters. Hillary said: “You saw the number of Republicans who voted along with Democrats to keep the government open, so there’s clearly a common sense, sane part of the Republican caucus in the House. But I think they are …READ MORE
Bill Gates Will Control New ‘Global Digital ID’ SystemREAD MORE…LATEST NEWS:Top Climate Scientist Admits ‘Global Warming’ Is a WEF ScamRead more…The CDC is Putting an End to COVID-19 Vaccination CardsRead more…Cheney, Kinzinger Oppose Jordan Becoming Speaker, So He Must Be A Good ChoiceRead more…Video of Joe Biden Kicking His Dog Surfaces Amid Commander Biting ControversyRead more…‘The View’ Host Sunny Hostin Claims Jim Jordan ‘Terrorized’ Her At Congressional HearingRead more…BREAKING: Trump Makes Official Endorsement For House SpeakerRead more…Donald Trump Plans to Endorse Jim Jordan for Speaker of the HouseRead more…UPDATE: Trump Tells Fox News He WOULD Accept Speaker Of The HouseRepublicans Demand Defunding of WEF, UN, WHO, Green AgendaREAD MORE…LATEST NEWS:Philadelphia police identify suspect in journalist Josh Kruger’s deathRead more…New York appeals court halts the process of breaking up Trump’s businesses but rejects halting the trialRead more…Michael Kidd-Gilchrist files a $40M lawsuit against insurance companyRead more…BREAKING: Trump Gets Great News From New York Appellate CourtRead more…Migrants are now being sent to NYC by PLANE by the Salvation ArmyRead more…Kevin McCarthy Refutes Resignation Rumors: ‘I’m Not Leaving’Read more…Manchin Pitches 1 Insane Migrant Idea – He Actually Wants to Spark a “Bidding” WarRead more…Democrat Congressman Rips Biden Over Border Crisis, Says Biden Is ‘Afraid’ Of Blowback From Far-LeftRead more…Read more…NEWS ADDICTS: LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIESRepublicans Demand Defunding of WEF, UN, WHO, Green AgendaRepublicans in the House of Representatives are demanding an end to the endless flow of taxpayer money to globalist organizations such as the World Economic Forum (WEF), United Nations (UN), WHO, and any other unelected bureaucrats pushing the green agenda.READ THE FULL REPORTNY Appeals Court Stops Judge Engoron’s Ruling to Break Up Donald Trump’s Businesses in Huge Blow to Letitia JamesEric Trump, executive vice president of The Trump Organization shared the news on X: “We thank the Appellate Division for staying the NY Attorney General’s and Judge Engoron’s overzealous attempt to cancel our New York business certificates. Judge Engoron’s order erroneously sought to adjudicate the rights of non-party business entities that employ nearly 1,000 hard-working New Yorkers, have never been …READ THE FULL REPORTTrump Gets Another Big Win Against Tyrannical Left, Granted Delay in Classified Documents CaseDonald Trump had a victory in court on Friday as he was granted a delay in the pre-trial filing deadline in the case against him related to classified documents. Judge Aileen Cannon ordered a stay in the Trump team’s Classified Information Procedures Act deadline, all while Cannon has yet to decide whether or not to push back the pre-trial schedule. …READ THE FULL REPORTHunter Biden Lawyer Files to Withdraw from Federal Gun Case Friday as Court Is Asked to Dismiss Case with Claim of ‘Immunity’Hunter Biden’s lawyer Richard Jones has filed to withdraw from the federal gun charges case against Biden. On Tuesday, Biden entered a plea of “not guilty” to three federal gun charges he currently faces. On Friday, Biden asked the court to dismiss the case against him. Biden has claimed he has immunity against the indictment from an earlier plea agreement …READ THE FULL REPORTHillary Clinton Calls for MAGA Re-Education CampsFormer Secretary of State and failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has called for MAGA supporters to be “deprogrammed.” “ very strong partisans in both parties in the past, and we had very bitter battles over all kinds of things. Gun control and climate change, and the economy and taxes,” she said. “But there wasn’t this little tail of extremism waving, …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Horror, Despair, And Improved Market Sentiment
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 09:40 AM
By Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank
Air raid warnings were reported to be sounding across Israel yesterday as rocket attacks continued during the day. In response to the shock assault from Hamas on Saturday, Israel carried out retaliatory strikes and prepared to put Gaza under a ‘complete siege’ with no deliveries of electricity or food. The initial market reaction was to be expected, defense stocks found support, the safe haven CHF was the best performing G10 currency on a 1-day view, gold prices surged, bond futures moved higher and the value of the shekel slumped, triggering a pledge by Israel’s central bank to sell as much as USD30 bln foreign exchange and extend up to USD15 bln through swap mechanisms to support confidence. Additionally, oil prices jumped 3% or so, cutting short the downtrend that had started at the end of last month but falling short of any sign of panic.
The lack of any stronger reaction quickly turned to relief with the turnaround in sentiment supported by a more dovish tone from a couple of Fed officials. Jefferson is viewing current Fed policy as restrictive and now sees the Fed proceeding carefully. Logan suggested that the recent surge in treasury yields may reduce the need for more policy tightening. By the end of Monday’s trading session, US stock indices had turned higher. This morning, equity futures are mostly up, bond yields are pushing lower, the shekel has recovered some ground and oil prices are trading below yesterday‘s high. Crucial for the outlook for oil, and therefore for inflation, will be the extent to which the war between Hamas and Israel impacts the broader Middle Eastern region
EU foreign ministers will hold urgent talks today to address the situation in Israel and in the region. Yesterday it was announced that the EU is putting all of its development financing for Palestine under review in response to the attack by Hamas over the weekend. The current budget is reportedly around EUR691 mn.
The deployment aside, speculation is centering around additional sanctions against Iran as one of the first responses. Over the weekend, the Wall St Journal reported that Iranian officials helped plan the attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday. White House officials have not confirmed there is evidence of Iran’s involvement but do say that Iran was complicit, while a top US General is warning Iran not to involve itself in the Hamas/Israel war. The WSJ report speculated that the weekend attack was timed to coincide with internal political divisions in Israel and to disrupt US brokered talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel which Iran viewed as threatening. Even if the US does tighten sanctions on Iran, however, the issue of enforceability remains, with much of Iran’s oil destined for China.
There is plenty of scope for the situation to impact US politics. While the Biden administration is arguing that the attack by Hamas highlights the need for an experienced leader in the White House, his political opponents have been critical of the President’s handling of US foreign policy. In the short-term, the absence of a Speaker means that the House of Representatives cannot properly function. This could slow any attempt to support Israel as well as delaying crucial domestic issues such as funding the government beyond the middle of November.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Looks like this pipeline in the Baltic has been deliberately damaged
(zerohedge)
Nord Stream 2.0? Finland-Estonia Undersea Pipeline In Baltic “Has Been Deliberately Damaged”
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 09:20 AM
Months after famed journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Seymour Hersh revealed the US blew up the Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea in September 2022 during a covert operation under the guise of the BALTOPS 22 NATO exercise, yet another undersea gas pipeline, this time, connecting Finland and Estonia has allegedly come under attack.
Gasgrid Finland and Elering, the Finnish and Estonian gas system operators, detected an “unusual” leak in the 77-kilometer (48-mile) interconnector in the early morning hours on Sunday.
“Based on observations, it was suspected that the offshore pipeline between Finland and Estonia was leaking,” Gasgrid Finland said in a statement. “The valves in the offshore pipeline are now closed and the leak is thus stopped.”
ERR News reported that the Estonian Navy started surveying the pipeline with its equipment on Monday, while the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service will also be involved in the investigation.
While the Finnish operator gave no reason for the suspected leak on Monday, Finnish officials, one day later, have now said their investigation of the leak will be on the premise of sabotage.
FINNISH DAILY ILTALEHTI, SWEDISH PUBLIC RADIO, CITING FINNISH GOVERNMENT SOURCES: ESTONIA-FINLAND SUBSEA GAS PIPELINE HAS BEEN DELIBERATELY DAMAGED
… queue Western media outlets who will likely place blame on Moscow – just as they did after the September 2022 bombing of the Nord Stream undersea pipeline that once connected Germany with cheap natural gas from Russia.
In early 2023, journalist Seymour Hersh published a bombshell report as his first Substack post that the US blew up the Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline as part of a covert operation under the guise of the BALTOPS 22 NATO exercise.
Last month, on the first anniversary of the bombing, he posted an article titled “A Year of Lying About Nord Stream, deals with motive. What was the United States’ motive?” His sources said told him:
Biden administration blew up the pipelines but the action had little to do with winning or stopping the war in Ukraine. It resulted from fears in the White House that Germany would waver and turn on the flow of Russia gas—and that Germany and then NATO, for economic reasons, would fall under the sway of Russia and its extensive and inexpensive natural resources. And thus followed the ultimate fear: that America would lose its long-standing primacy in Western Europe.
Back to the busted Finland and Estonia undersea pipeline, which Bloomberg stated: “Finland must rely fully on its floating LNG terminals for supply, while Estonia began receiving piped gas from Latvia.”
News of the leak sent US and EU NatGas prices higher.
While there are no conclusions about the leak in the Baltic, it comes as the Northern Hemisphere winter is just months away.
The good news is the EU’s NatGas storage is well above normal levels for this time of year.
And the latest data from the Energy Information Administration shows the US exported more LNG in the first half of the year than any other country in the world.
Much of the LNG exports ended up in Europe.
So, who stands to benefit if Europe’s energy independence and or cheap supplies from Russia are disrupted? Well, it’s undoubtedly not Russia, as the corporate media likes to tout. Instead, it’s the US energy-industrial complex, as well as Washington.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
Now GM is hit with a strike in Canada
Strikes Hit General Motors Plants In Canada As Contract Talks Fail In Last Hour
EU foreign ministers will hold urgent talks today to address the situation in Israel and in the region. Yesterday it was announced that the EU is putting all of its development financing for Palestine under review in response to the attack by Hamas over the weekend. The current budget is reportedly around EUR691 mn.
The deployment aside, speculation is centering around additional sanctions against Iran as one of the first responses. Over the weekend, the Wall St Journal reported that Iranian officials helped plan the attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday. White House officials have not confirmed there is evidence of Iran’s involvement but do say that Iran was complicit, while a top US General is warning Iran not to involve itself in the Hamas/Israel war. The WSJ report speculated that the weekend attack was timed to coincide with internal political divisions in Israel and to disrupt US brokered talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel which Iran viewed as threatening. Even if the US does tighten sanctions on Iran, however, the issue of enforceability remains, with much of Iran’s oil destined for China.
There is plenty of scope for the situation to impact US politics. While the Biden administration is arguing that the attack by Hamas highlights the need for an experienced leader in the White House, his political opponents have been critical of the President’s handling of US foreign policy. In the short-term, the absence of a Speaker means that the House of Representatives cannot properly function. This could slow any attempt to support Israel as well as delaying crucial domestic issues such as funding the government beyond the middle of November.
The labor action came after Unifor failed to secure a contract that included wage increases, cost of living adjustments, and pension reform over a three-year contract. The deadline was 11:59 p.m. Toronto time.
“This strike is about General Motors stubbornly refusing to meet the pattern agreement. The company knows our members will never let GM break our pattern — not today — not ever,” Payne said.
She added: “We are not there yet, so as a result, we are on picket lines.”
Strikes in Canada compound the pressures in the US for GM as thousands of United Auto Workers continue to raise hell. Also, UAW workers continue to strike at Ford and Stellantis plants.
A Deutsche Bank note pointed out a stunning statistic: GM has lost 34,176 vehicles of production since the start of the UAW strike in September. The good news, GM has 442,586 vehicles in stock.
Reuters said Unifor went on strike at GM’s Oshawa assembly complex, St. Catharines powertrain plant, and the Woodstock parts distribution center. Union members at the CAMI Assembly Plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, are still working as they’re under a different agreement.
“We remain at the bargaining table and are committed to keep working with Unifor to reach an agreement that is fair and flexible for our 4,200 represented employees at Oshawa Assembly & Operations, St. Catharines Propulsion Plant, and Woodstock Parts Distribution Centre,” Jennifer Wright, GM Canada’s executive director for communications, told AP News in a statement.
END
Then:
they reach a tentative agreement
(zerohedge)
Canadian Workers Union Reaches Tentative Agreement With GM, Ending Strikes At Auto Plants
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 02:15 PM
Update (1415ET):
About 13 hours after Unifor, the union representing Canadian auto workers, declared a strike at three General Motors plants in Canada, a tentative agreement has been reached between the union and automaker, effectively ending the labor dispute, as reported by Bloomberg.
“Now that a tentative agreement has been reached work will resume at all GM facilities,” Unifor wrote in a statement.
Here’s Unifor’s statement that includes highlights of the agreement:
Members at General Motors,
Unifor and General Motors have reached a tentative agreement following strike action at Oshawa Assembly Plant, St. Catharines Powertrain Plant and Woodstock Parts Distribution Centre.
It is thanks to the solidarity of you, the members, that it was possible to move General Motors to accept the pattern to the letter, including all items that company had initial fought us on such as pensions, retiree income supports and converting full-time temporary workers into permanent employees over the life of the agreement.
Now that a tentative agreement has been reached work will resume at all GM facilities. Unifor members must report for their regularly scheduled work shift in your plant beginning at 2:30 p.m. today.
Details on the ratification process will be sent via email with meetings to be scheduled in the coming days. A master bargaining brochure and a local bargaining brochure with details specific to all General Motors facilities will be made available in advance of those meetings.
Highlights of the pattern agreement include:
Base hourly wage increases of nearly 20% for production and 25% for Skilled Trades over the lifetime of agreement.
By the end of the three-year agreement, a top-rate production assembler will be paid $44.52 per hour, in addition to a forecasted $1.61 cost of living allowance (a total of $46.13); a journeyperson skilled trades worker will be paid $55.97 per hour, in addition to a forecasted $1.61 cost of living allowance (a total of $57.58).
General wage increases in each year of the agreement with 10% in year one, 2% in year two and 3% in year three.
Reactivation of the Cost of Living Allowance (COLA) in December 2024.
Wage progression reduced from 8 to 4 years.
Start rate for Temporary Part Time and production workers increasing from $24.26 to $29.67/hr., further increasing to $30.26 within 12 months, and $31.16 by the end of the agreement.
The conversion of all full-time temporary workers, with at least one year of seniority at ratification, to permanent status.
At Oshawa Assembly, the company has agreed to eliminate the use of the full-time temporary classification by August 1, 2026.
$10,000 Productivity and Quality bonus for full-time employees (including current temporary full-time) as well as $4,000 for Temporary Part Time.
Improvements to all pension plans.
Mandatory company contributions to the DC plan increase from 4% to 7%.
Defined Contribution plan members will transition to a new Defined Benefits style pension for current plan members and all new hires on January 1, 2025.
New quarterly payment unique to Canadian retirees, called the Universal Health Care Allowance. These quarterly payments will continue in each year of the 3-year agreement.
Two new additional paid holidays: Family Day and National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.
Please continue to monitor your email inbox for upcoming specifics on the ratification meetings.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0575 DOWN 0.0004
USA/ YEN 149.07 UP .736 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2237 DOWN 0.0011
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3600 UP .0019 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 19 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 21.69 PTS OR .70%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 147.33 PTS OR 0.84%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.03% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 147.33 PTS OR 0.84%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 21.69 PTS OR .70%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.03%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 751.84 PTS OR 2.43%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1857.10
silver:$21.71
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 105,82 UP 1 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …72958
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2862)
TURKISH LIRA: 27.73 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.781…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 12 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.624% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.826 DOWN 12 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.946 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 136.10 POINTS or 1.82%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 295.47 PTS OR 1.95%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 141.03 PTS OR 2.01%
Spain IBEX UP 210.80 PTS OR 2.19%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 636.16 PTS OR 2.80%
WTI Oil price 85,54 12: EST
Brent Oil: 87.45 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 100.28; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 96//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.7705 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4690 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0596 UP 0.0018 OR 18 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2273 UP .0024 or 24 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.466% DOWN 20 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .779%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.75UP 0.471 //YEN UP 47 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3589 UP .0009 CDN dollar DOWN 9 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 85.87
Brent OIL: 87.54
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 11 BASIS pts to 4.667%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 10 BASIS PTS to 4.841%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 10 PTS AT 4.982 %
USA dollar index: 105.59 DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.73 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 100.30 DOWN 0 AND 98/100 roubles
GOLD 1858.80
SILVER: 21.74
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 134.65 PTS OR 0.40%
With bond traders coming back to work after yesterday’s Columbus Day market closure, yields actually ended practically unchanged on the day (from where futures-implied levels closed yesterday)…
Source: Bloomberg
But since Friday’s cash close, yields are significantly lower (10-14bps lower)…
Source: Bloomberg
With 2Y Yields back below 5.00% for the first time in almost a month…
Source: Bloomberg
And rate-change expectations have pushed lower after yesterday’s dovish FedSpeak from Jefferson and Daly…
Source: Bloomberg
Equity markets trod water overnight and then took off again at the cash open with Small Caps leading the charge. Around 1300ET the market took a dive as headlines hit of a second carrier group being sent to Israel and also a very ugly 3Y auction which ratcheted equities lower. Things stabilized a bit but then selling pressure hit in the last few minutes…
For context, the Nasdaq and Small Caps are up over 4% from Friday’s post-payrolls lows..
Energy stocks are the best since Friday’s close and Banks the worst, but all sectors are green…
Source: Bloomberg
Nasdaq Composite topped its 50- and 100-DMA but was unable to hold them today…
VIX was squeezed back to a 16 handle
The dollar continued its recent leak lower – back at one week lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin pushed back lower today after an overnight bounce, back to payrolls lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices were modestly lower from yesterday’s surge higher after Israeli attack with WTI holding above $85…
Gold was basically flat on the day holding post-payrolls gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, two interesting regime shifts.
Tighter financial conditions suggest stocks should be considerably lower…
Source: Bloomberg
…and the decline in reverse repo utilization (and reserves at The Fed) suggest the S&P should be notably higher…
Source: Bloomberg
…perhaps the former tightening is ruining the flow from the latter’s shrinkage and pushing them into Bills not Big Tech.
EARLY MORNING TRADING/
TUCKER CARLSON..
end
II USA DATA
Unexpected surge in household delinquency expectations!
(zerohedge)
NY Fed Survey Finds Surge In Household Delinquency Expectations, Worst Since April 2020 Covid Crash
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 02:20 PM
After several months of declines in the 1-Year inflation expectation as tracked by the NY Fed’s monthly consumer survey, September saw the second consecutive increase in this series which traditionally is also a proxy for the price of oil (which recently hit a 2023 high before tumbling, before spiking again on the latest war in Israel), however this was offset by a small decline in 5 year inflation expectations, which traded places with the 3 year which in turn rose modestly. However, the most concerning observations was that despite a modest improvement in household income growth expectations, there was an unexpected spike in delinquency expectations as US household appear to have hit a brick wall on how much debt they can pay down in the immediate future
Here are the details: as shown in the chart below, inflation expectations at the one-year horizon were every so slightly higher at 3.67% in Sept. from the previous month’s 3.63%; three-year-ahead inflation expectations also reversed higher and after falling from 2.91% in July to 2.79% in August, they then bounced all the way to 3.00% in September. Finally, 5-year-ahead inflation expectations declined from 3.00% to 2.84%, the lowest since May 2023.
The report also noted that median inflation uncertainty (the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes) increased slightly across all three horizons
Turning to median home price growth expectations, the survey found that after a perplexing jump of 0.3% to 3.1% in August, September saw a modest drop to 3.0%… which of course is just what the Fed wants to achieve, and suggests that the Fed’s tightening plans may finally be taking a toll on the single, most important asset class for the US middle class. The decrease was more pronounced among respondents below the age of 40 and those who live in the South Census regions.
Next, turning to year-ahead commodity price expectations, there was a big drop in the cost of college education which decreased sharply to 5.8% from 8.2% , its largest one-month decrease since the onset of the survey in 2013 (good luck with that). Median year-ahead expected price changes declined by 0.1, 0.4 and 0.1 percentage point for the cost of gas (to 4.8%), medical care (to 8.8%) and rent (to 9.1%), respectively. In contrast, median year-ahead expected price changes for food increased by 0.3 percentage point (to 5.6%).
But while the latest reversal in the downward trend of inflation was troubling, this was offset in part by a similar reversal in the recent downward trend in household income growth expectations, which last month slumped to 2.9% – the lowest since July 2021 – and which in September rose modestly by 0.1% to 3.0%, remaining well below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.5% but at least halting the recent slide.
But while the latest uptick in income growth expectations was welcome, what was more troubling was the response to the question whether a respondent won’t be able to make minimum debt payments over the next three months. As shown below, expectations for debt delinquencies surged to 12.5%, the highest since the covid lockdown in April 2020. The increase was largest for respondents below the age of 40, with some college education, and those with an annual household income below $50k.
In other words, with delinquency and charge-off rates already surging, the near-term is about to go from very bad to much worse.
Here are some other observations from the latest Ny Fed survey, first those dealing with household finance
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated slightly. The share of households reporting that it is more difficult to obtain credit now than a year ago increased, while the share reporting that it is easier declined. Similarly, respondents’ views about future credit availability deteriorated slightly. The share of respondents expecting tighter credit conditions a year from now increased, while the share expecting looser credit conditions declined.
Median household spending growth expectations remained unchanged at 5.3% in September, remaining well above pre-pandemic levels.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) decreased to 4.0% from 4.1%, its lowest reading since October 2020. Good luck with that.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.6 percentage point to 9.5%, remaining below the series 12-month trailing average of 9.9%. The real number will be much, much higher.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.7 percentage point to 30.8%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated slightly in September with more respondents reporting being worse off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being better off. In contrast, year-ahead expectations improved with more respondents expecting to be better off a year from now.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.5 percentage point to 36.7%.
And the labor market:
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.1 percentage to 3.0% in September. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021. The increase was most pronounced among respondents with some college education.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.6 percentage points to 40.1%, equal to its 12-month trailing average.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 12.4%, remaining slightly above its 12-month trailing average of 12.1%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased as well, by 0.7 percentage point, to 18.2%.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased to 56.5% from 55.7%, just below its 12-month trailing average of 56.9%. The increase was driven by respondents above the age of 60.
Putting it all together, while inflation expectations rose (tracking the price of oil in September) and household perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved modestly, what was a flashing red alert was the sudden spike in delinquency expectations as US households can no longer afford to pay down their (record) debt and instead prepare to simply default.
RFK Jr. Ditches Democrats To Pursue 2024 Presidential Bid As An Independent
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 05:11 AM
Update (1256ET):
As anticipated, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew from the Democratic primary to pursue a run as an independent presidential candidate in 2024.
“I’m here to declare himself an independent candidate for president of the United States. That’s not all. I’m here to join you in making a new declaration of independence for our entire nation. We declare independence from the corporations that have hijacked our government. And we declare independence from Wall Street, from Big Tech, from Big Pharma, from Big Ag, from the military contractors and their lobbyists. And we declare independence from the cynical elites who betray our hope and who amplify our divisions. And finally, we declare independence from the two political parties,” Kennedy told a crowd of supporters at Philadelphia’s Independence Mall this afternoon.
* * *
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is expected to announce Monday afternoon in Philadelphia that he will abandon his Democratic bid for president and run as an independent or third-party candidate.
On Sunday, Kennedy wrote on X: “I’m ready for tomorrow, are you? Catch my livestream from 12-2 pm.” Attached to the post was a video of the 69-year-old running up the steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art (try that Biden), reenacting a scene from the 1976 film Rocky.
Kennedy, who announced earlier this year he was running against 80-year-old Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination, has been polling around 14% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, behind Trump at 40% and Biden at 38%.
On Kennedy’s campaign website, his team stated, “Kennedy will lay out a path to the White House that involves a major shift in American politics. We invite you to witness history in the making, at the very spot where our founding fathers launched this nation in 1776 with the Declaration of Independence. On Monday, we come together again to reset the course of our nation.”
CNN noted, “Biden’s allies so far have dismissed Kennedy’s primary campaign as unserious. Asked for comment on his potential independent run, a Democratic National Committee spokesman responded with an eye roll emoji.”
However, Tim Donner, the senior political analyst at Liberty Nation, said, “The walls are closing in on Joe Biden. As he persists in his campaign for a second term in the White House, the 46th president is facing challenges from every direction — right, left, and center.”
Donner continued:
“First, left-wing academic Cornel West entered the race for the Green Party, sure to siphon progressive votes from the incumbent. Then came the growing centrist threat posed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and the well-funded, non-ideological No Labels party. And now, after being shunned and ostracized by a party once formed in the image of his slain father and uncle, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is set to make a “major announcement” today, with speculation rampant that he will abandon his primary challenge against Biden and run instead as a third-party candidate.”
Kennedy’s role as an independent candidate could determine the general election. Polling data already suggests he would be one of the strongest third-party or independent candidates in decades – back to the years of Ross Perot.
end
We are seeing a lot of train derailments! This time it was heavy military vehicles
(zerohedge)
“Cars Spinning Everywhere”: Train Carrying Military Vehicles Derails In Colorado Springs
TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 – 12:40 PM
A freight train operated by Union Pacific Railway, hauling heavy military vehicles, derailed near downtown Colorado Springs Monday night.
Local news KKTV 11 reported eight train cars hauling heavy military equipment derailed along Las Vegas Street, just south of Circle Drive, around 1830 local time.
“We were noticing that there were a lot of military vehicles going by,” said Adolfo Rangel, who works across the street from the railroad tracks.
Rangel said, “We were watching them, and then all of a sudden we heard a big pop and bang. It was loud, it was really loud. Then this spun [gestured to part of the train behind him] and then everything started crashing together. I was like ‘whoa.’ I’ve never seen anything like that.”
“Cars were just spinning everywhere,” said Steven Watkins, another witness. “Gravel was thrown all over the place.”
Watkins said, “The crashing and everything [was] probably three or four minutes because it was kind of, like, slow in a way, but then all of this stuff [gestured again to the mess behind him] started falling. It was loud. It was super loud.”
KKTV 11 could not confirm where the train was headed with the Department of Defense. But considering war in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, one can only assume the vehicles were headed to possible ports for export.
After a train carrying vinyl chloride derailed and exploded in East Palestine, Ohio, earlier this year, there has been a lot of focus on train derailments. This is one of the first, so far, that we’ve heard involving a train hauling military equipment.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
end
THE KING REPORT
The King Report October 6, 2023 Issue 7091
Independent View of the News
@charliebilello: The US National Debt has now increased by over $2 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended just 4 months ago. https://t.co/lWiHaYW7Ht
Will the U.S. Get Hit With a Recession in 2024? Forecaster Estimated U.S. Recession Probability (Next 12 Months) Federal Reserve Staff 0% Yield Curve* 61% Economists 48% Consumers 69% Goldman Sachs 15% Bank of America 35-40% CEOs** 84% (Down from 92% in Q2) https://www.visualcapitalist.com/united-states-recession-in-2024-economic-forecasts/
Renowned hedge fund operator Hugh Hendry Eclectica (@hendry_hugh): Somebody is insolvent. Volatility everywhere, big move in oil, the long end, unrelenting dollar strength… I just fear people are going down…imagine being long and wrong without a Fed bailout
@zerohedge: “US banks held $5.436 trillion in debt securities… these securities lost $140bn in value during the quarter… Cumulative unrealized losses were $558.4bn in Q2 and have now surpassed the previous peak of $689.9bn in Q3 2022.” – Deutsche Bank https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1709738882529628496?s=02
@Schuldensuehner: Good Morning from Germany, where the construction sector is really crashing. The German PMI Construction Index fell to 39.3 in Sep from 41.5 in Aug, and the lowest level since statistics began. https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1709837268876165166
ESZs traded lower but sideways during early Nikkei trading. They rallied after 21:00 ET and were briefly positive during the final 90 minutes of Nikkei trading. ESZs commenced a decline after the 1:00 ET Nikkei close that ended about 25 minutes after the 3 ET European opening. An 11-handle rally ended at 4:33 ET. ESZs then sank 17 handles by 5:40 ET. Traders then aggressively bought, ESZs zoomed to a daily high of 4302.00 at 7:03 ET. ESZs sank to 4278.00 after the US Initial Jobless Claims report.
It was time to buy for the Pump & Dump. ESZs jumped to 4299.50 at 9:34 ET. The dump began early; ESZs commenced a tumble that ended with a daily low of 4258.00 at 11:09 ET. The rally for the European close was lackluster and modest; but ESZs (and USZS) rallied after very liberal SF Fed President Daly said the Fed can hold rates steady if labor, prices keep cooling.
The rally ended when Daly added: ‘If inflation stalls or financial conditions loosen, we will need to raise rates further.’ ESZs fell to 4264.75 at 13:09 ET. The afternoon rally began; it persisted until 14:40 ET. ESZs hit 4300.75 at the time and then rolled over. An A-B-C decline into the close developed.
USZs were flat during early Nikkei trading. They rallied moderately after 21:00 ET but quickly went flat again. After China’s 2 ET close, USZs began a decline that took USZs to 11 5/32, -11/32 near 5 ET. After hitting 111 23/32 at 8:03 ET (US cash bond market opens at 8 ET), USZs cratered to a daily low of 110 23/32 at 8:42 ET. After a sharp rebound, USZs rolled over and traded in a wide range until the range tightened considerably after noon ET.
Positive aspects of previous session. Oil and gasoline declined again
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds could not extend Wednesday’s rally
Ambiguous aspects of previous session When will the entities with severe financial damage be exposed?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4250.41 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4267.13; 4225.91
Girl Scouts announces it is DISCONTINUING ‘extremely popular’ new cookie flavor – just months after its launch sparked viral resale FRENZY that saw sweet treats being sold for up to $200 A BOX – ‘While Raspberry Rally was extremely popular last year, we are taking a pause this season to prioritize supplying our classic varieties,’ said a Girls Scouts spokesperson… https://t.co/Xkqjeq0z3W
@kevinnbass: Landmark paper shows COVID vaccine has 1/800 severe adverse event rate. Rotavirus vaccine was pulled from market for 1/10,000 adverse events. Swine flu vaccine was pulled for 1/100,000 As far as vaccines go, the COVID vaccine adverse event rate is historically extremely high.https://t.co/vn9nWNFYJK
@unusual_whales: The SEC has sued Elon Musk in federal court in San Francisco to force try and force him to testify in the agency’s probe into his purchase of Twitter in 2022, per the Bloomberg.
Today – The September Employment Report, released at 8:30 ET, will dictate pre and early NYSE trading. Barring an unusual NFP number, the response to the report should be minor and transitory.
As always, check the NFP seasonal adjustment, the 2-month revision, and compare the Household Report’s “Employed” to NFP. The BLS’s Birth/Death Model has been uneventful for the past few years.
Even the WSJ has recognizes that Team Obama-Biden is fooling with US Employment Reports.
‘Frustrating’ Revisions to Jobs Data Slow Wall Street Trading – WSJ (Pay wall) A record run of downward revisions to the federal government’s monthly jobs report is discouraging some Wall Street traders from making big bets on the data… Each release this year has revised prior reports lower. It’s the first time revisions have been negative every month through July on record, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data dating back to 1979. There have been fewer stock trades on the days the jobs report has been released this year than in past years, and swings have been more muted, according to Dow Jones Market Data… https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-10-04-2023/card/revisions-to-jobs-data-slow-wall-street-trading-wb0gAFn6hFKKPz7hC3GG
Traders will play for the Friday rally. ESZs are -3.00 and USZs are -7/32, at 20:30 ET.
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4429; 100-day MA: 4391; 150-day MA: 4280; 200-day MA: 4206 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,552; 100-day MA: 34,266; 150-day MA: 33,895; 200-day MA: 33,799 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4523.92 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4323.61 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4266.67 triggers a buy signal
Trump allegedly discussed US nuclear subs with foreign national after leaving White House Trump allegedly discussed the information with an Australian billionaire. Months after leaving the White House, former President Donald Trump allegedly discussed potentially sensitive information about U.S. nuclear submarines with a member of his Mar-a-Lago Club — an Australian billionaire who then allegedly shared the information with scores of others, including more than a dozen foreign officials, several of his own employees, and a handful of journalists, according to sources familiar with the matter… (If true, Trump is finished!) https://abcnews.go.com/US/after-white-house-trump-allegedly-discussed-potentially-sensitive/story
Now that illegal immigration is killing Dems in polling, Team Obama-Biden is building the wall! Biden administration waives 26 federal laws to allow border wall construction in South Texas “There is presently an acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers and roads in the vicinity of the border of the United States in order to prevent unlawful entries into the United States in the project areas,” Alejandro Mayorkas, the DHS secretary, stated in the notice… https://apnews.com/article/border-wall-biden-immigration-texas-rio-grande-147d7ab497e6991e9ea929242f21ceb2
We’re old enough to remember that Dems and the MSM condemned Trump for building the border and they labeled him a ‘racist’ for wanting to halt illegal immigration. What changed? The polls!!!
Fox’s @BillMelugin_: Biden while running for president in 2020: “There will not be another foot of wall constructed on my administration.” Biden’s DHS now: “There is presently an acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers…”…
@RNCResearch: In April, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said a border wall was “off the table”: “We are not going to construct more wall that costs billions and billions of dollars, that is immovable.”
The Big Guy’s flip-flop on the border wall enraged leftists, including those in the WH. So, Joey Baby tried to extricate himself from the mess by doing what he does best – he fibbed and projected blame.
Biden shifts border-wall-blame to Congress despite waiving 26 fed laws to restart project as migrant crisis batters US – “The money was appropriated for the border wall. I tried to get them to reappropriate, to redirect that money. They didn’t. They wouldn’t,” Biden told reporters in the Oval Office… https://nypost.com/2023/10/05/biden-says-he-cant-stop-border-wall-construction-blames-congress/
@RNCResearch: “What specific law would the administration be breaking if the funds appropriated for the border wall are not used?” KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: “I’m not a lawyer.” https://t.co/ln0xmULDdg “How can you say that [Biden] is not breaking that promise” there would “not be another foot of wall constructed” in his administration? KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: “This was six months ago!” https://t.co/C2bCcuwyrh
@nicksortor” REPORTER: “If the border wall is ineffective, why is the DHS secretary saying that it’s ‘necessary’ to prevent unlawful entries into the United States?” @PressSec: “I have not seen that.” REPORTER: “It’s in the notice that went out!” Either this administration is WILDLY incompetent or they’re shameless liars. Which one is it?! https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1709987332718313972?s=02
@gatewaypundit: Biden Regime Decides to Build Border Wall Segment Two Months after They Sold All of the Trump Border Parts Worth $300 Million for $2 Million
Due to increasing media scrutiny (and an election looming), The Big Guy’s dog ‘Commander’ has been removed from The White House after at least a dozen biting incidents.
@paulsperry_: According to Judicial Watch sources, “President Biden has mistreated his dogs.” Judicial Watch has learned “he has punched and kicked his dogs.” Hill sources say BofA, Cathay Bank, JP Morgan and other major banks have until NEXT THURSDAY (Oct. 12) to turn over to impeachment investigators all subpoenaed Biden bank records. Production targets: Hunter Biden, James Biden & Biden family fixer/moneyman Eric Schwerin.
@JoshPower80: Perfect representation of all-things Trump. Here he is complaining that he’s a victim, that he’s been deprived a jury. He gets community noted because the truth is, he could have had a jury but never requested one. He IS a victim, but he’s a victim of his own incompetence. https://twitter.com/JoshPower80/status/1709983420560896123/photo/1
Deadly crash from 2018 involving Senator Menendez’s wife gets new attention after indictment Nadine Menendez struck and killed 49-year-old Richard Koop in Bogota, NJ in 2018 Surveillance video shows the moment Menendez’s vehicle hit Koop… When police arrived, she claimed she was innocent, but said “no” when police asked if they could examine her phone, which officers often do to see if a driver was texting at the time of an accident… The same surveillance video that shows Menendez’ car hitting Koop, shows her then sitting in the car for several minutes, never looking to see if the man she hit was ok. He died at the scene… Koop’s family did pursue the case with Nadine Menendez’s insurance company, and the family won. https://abc7ny.com/nadine-menendez-deadly-car-crash-bogota-nj-senator-bob/13864313/ The King Report for October 9, 2023 Issue 7092Independent View of the NewsHamas launches surprise attack on Israel; Netanyahu declares ‘we are at war’ https://justthenews.com/world/middle-east/surprise-attack-israel-gaza-saturday-morning-rockets-and-terrorist-infiltration
Israel PM @netanyahu: Since this morning, the State of Israel has been at war. Our first objective is to clear out the hostile forces that infiltrated our territory and restore the security and quiet to the communities that have been attacked. The second objective, at the same time, is to exact an immense price from the enemy, within the Gaza Strip as well. The third objective is to reinforce other fronts so that nobody should mistakenly join this war. We are at war. In war, one needs to be level-headed. I call on all citizens of Israel to unite in order to achieve our highest goal – victory in the war.
As of Sunday 18:00 ET, at least 700 Israelis (~24k US equivalent) were killed and 2,243+ wounded. 160+ hostages, including women and children, were taken. Reports of atrocities/rape teem over social media. An estimated 400+ Palestinians have been killed, 1000+ injured. Hamas beheaded Israeli soldiers per reports and at least one video. https://t.co/0OPDBYsgmz
@omriceren: Hamas flew terrorists into a music festival with 1000s of young people. They killed hundreds (260+ per reports)… hunted down those who ran. They seized dozens of women, raped and tortured them, then executed many and took others to Gaza.https://t.co/Eun6qkuiSs
@DGreenbaum: Not since the Holocaust has this large a number of Jews been killed in a single day…
Antony Blinken confirms there are ‘indications’ Americans were killed and kidnapped by Hamas terrorists in Israelhttps://t.co/50Oo9vrc59
@MarinaMedvin: Palestinian terrorists entered Jewish civilian homes, murdered women and children, and dragged any survivors as hostages into the Gaza Strip… X has removed almost every single video exposing Palestinian brutality to Jewish children, men, women, and elders. Why?…
@nexta_tv: “The purpose of the Hamas operation in Israel is to take hostages,” said Dawood Shihab, a spokesman for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group. He said it was needed for two purposes – the exchange of Palestinians in Israeli prisons and to prevent an Israeli ground operation in the Gaza Strip…Videos published in social networks show militants taking hostages, including women and children. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1710682059109240970
@officejjsmart: Israeli Defense Forces statement, in Arabic, to the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip, “I want to say one thing:Hamas has opened the gates of hell in the Gaza Strip.Hamas has made a decision & Hamas will take responsibility and pay for its actions.”https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1710728758364180766
@DeItaone: Israeli Defence Minister Gallant: “We will change reality on the ground in Gaza for the next 50 year. What was before will be no more. We will operate at full force.
@BarakRavid: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on Palestinian civilians in Gaza to “leave now” because the Israeli military is going to “turn all Hamas hiding places into rubble.”
@sentdefender: The Chief of the Israeli Defense Force’s Northern Command has stated that they are preparing for Hezbollah to Join the War once Ground Operations begin in the Gaza Strip and that they are moving Forces to the North to Defend against that Eventuality.
@Global_Mil_Info: Footage has been released showing Hamas Al-Qasssm Saqr Squadron landing in Israel during the initial infiltration operation. Multiple motorized hang gliders can been seen in the video. (Who funded this?) https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1710760974792241450
@mirandadevine: After giving Iran $6 billion of our money, the Biden administration’s initial reaction was to tweet at Israel “to refrain from violence and retaliatory attacks,” before deleting the post. https://twitter.com/laurieinri/status/1710668345110872186
@JeremyDBoreing: Saudi Arabia pursues deeper ties with Israel. Biden funds Iran.Iran funds Hamas. Hamas invades Israel. Israel decimates Hamas. Saudi Arabian public support turns against peace with Israel. Iran stops alliance between its two biggest rivals. But what does Biden get? Why are Obama, Biden, Kerry so intent on seeing our enemy Iran the ascendant power in the region?
@POLITICOEurope: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s top military adviser has said Tehran supported the attacks by Hamas against Israel.
Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel over Several Weeks– WSJ (Pay wall) The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gave the final go-ahead last Monday in Beirut…according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah… A direct Iranian role would take Tehran’s long-running conflict with Israel out of the shadows, raising the risk of broader conflict in the Middle East… https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25
@jacobkschneider: Iran and Hamas started planning the attacks on Israel in August — which, coincidentally I’m sure, is right when (Aug.10 report)the U.S. and Iran reached that $6 billion deal. https://twitter.com/jacobkschneider/status/1711133322305311203
@Jerusalem_Post: The Taliban has reportedly asked Iran for passage to Israel to help Hamas continue its terror against the Jewish state. (With US weaponry that Biden abandoned on his ugly Afghan exit!)
@adamhousley: I can assure you…US arms left in Afghanistan are absolutely being used right now by Hamas to attack Israel. There is zero doubt on this.
GOP Rep, Col & Ex-Green Beret @michaelgwaltz: Let’s be clear: the Biden Admin just released $6B for Iran to use for “humanitarian aid” that we WARNED would free up money to help its terrorist puppets like Hamas. It only took a few weeks for Iran & Hamas to launch a full assault against Israel.
@RC_Greenway: Since Biden took office Iran’s accessible foreign exchange reserves went from <$6B to over $70B, and from selling <400k barrels of oil per day at <$55/ barrel to over 3M barrels per day at $85 per barrel. Anyone arguing this doesn’t support terrorism is either wholly ignorant, lying, or both.
@RC_Greenway: Last year, Iran’s revenues from the export of crude oil and condensate reached 42.6B USD, compared to 25.5B in 2021, and 7.9B in 2020.
On Saturday, Team Biden denied that the $6B gift to Iran funded the attack. They changed tune Sunday.
@RNCResearch: “What do you say about the argument that money is fungible — so Iran may have known this money is coming and used other funds to help fund this attack?” Secretary of State Antony Blinken: “Iran has unfortunately always used and focused its funds on supporting terrorism.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1711026361932911037
@WesternLensman: On September 19, Biden spokesman John Kirby justified the $6B for Iran by ensuring there would be consequences should the Iranian regime support terror: “If [Iran] decides to increase their support for terrorist activity…we’re going to be ready to hold them accountable, we’re going to be ready to deter that activity.” Three weeks later, Iran has done exactly that. Now what, Biden administration? https://twitter.com/WesternLensman/status/1710801730756034953
@NoahPollak: Want to know how much the Hamas invasion is a result of Biden policy? This is from less than two months ago: Biden Admin Raised Concerns Palestinian Aid Would Boost Hamas. It Went Ahead With Aid Anyway. Internal docs show Biden admin knew there was a ‘high risk’ Hamas would benefit from U.S. aid… https://t.co/uxsXgZX0LU
@JakeWSimons: This is a huge military and intelligence failure by Israel…(What about US intel?)
@Cernovich: Either the Biden regime missed this attack, coordinated by thousands of people over weeks, or it knew it was going to happen and allowed it.
@FluteMagician: The red squares are where Hamas assaults took place. So Hamas was able tocoordinate this, plan, train, do the logistics, get the intel, and all that all by themselves? To do a multipronged attack like this? I wonder if someone told them Israeli intelligence couldn’t see it? https://twitter.com/FluteMagician/status/1710742231315775656
@Perpetualmaniac: Israelis are talking about Iran carrying out a special ops mission on Israeli soil and being behind the initial kidnapping… https://t.co/ZpBaAhx9sa
Ex-CIA ops @BryanDeanWright: Governments around the world likely knew the Hamas terror attacks were coming. I can think of over a dozen intel agencies that were catching SIGINT / HUMINT about the networks involved. Just too complex, too many people, too much materiel to go unnoticed. What did CIA/NSA know? What did they tell Biden / NSC? Did Biden hold anything back from the Israelis? If so, why? As those questions get asked — @HouseGOP / HPSCI / SSCI…
@AsaadHannaa Spokesperson of Izzuddin Al-Qassam Brigades, Abu Obaidah: “We thank the Islamic Republic of Iran who provided us with weapons, money and other equipment! He gave us missiles to destroy Zionist fortresses… https://twitter.com/AsaadHannaa/status/1710996552502641068
@JoeyMannarinoUS: Hamas is claiming Ukraine sold them the weapons they used in the attack today against Israel. https://t.co/SZ9vAAQIhF
@jseldin: Asked about reports Egypt tried to share warnings Hamas was planning a massive attack, the senior US administration official said, “If the allegation is that we had some specific warning or indicator from another country, it’s certainly not something that we’ve seen.” (Qualifying/weasel word: specific)
Ex-Navy Intel @JackPosobiec: WH staffer: “Nobody wants to talk about Iran in WH today, if you even utter the name Iran you might find yourself without a job. They know how bad this payout looks now.”
@ABC: A senior White House official told reporters that it is “too early” to know what involvement, if any, Iran had in the attacks in Israel. https://trib.al/bS3bMf8
@WarMachineRR: Hamas terrorists started firing rockets at Israel at 11:30pm eastern Friday night. Saturday afternoon, Joe Biden said he finally started taking calls about the attacks at 7:30, 8:00am eastern. (Is Biden inoperative at night?) https://twitter.com/WarMachineRR/status/1710734580070707260
@RNCResearch: Biden’s remarks — 15+ hours after Hamas began attacking Israel — lasted just 2 minutes and 55 seconds. He took zero questions. (Why was Biden not awakened?)
“Indeed, He who watches over Israel will neither slumber nor sleep.” – Psalms 121:4
Biden on Saturday afternoon: “Let there be no mistake. The United States stands with the State of Israel… There’s never justification for terrorist attacks and my administration’s support for Israel’s security is rock solid and unwavering…” @amlivemon: Half of the Democratic Party is anti-Israel lol….Biden can’t call them out publicly; he’d have no votes for 2024. (‘Some Squad’ Dem Reps voiced support for Hamas on Sunday.)
NYC Democrat Socialists of America Rally in Support of Palestine and Hamashttps://t.co/5u72Q2CfW2
@ChicagoContrar1: Imagine our surprise when we saw the speaker vomiting up messages of hate toward Israel and claiming Zionism is racism was wearing a SEIU jacket. Anti-Semitism is running as strong as ever at the @SEIULocal1, @SEIU73 (Teacher unions) https://twitter.com/ChicagoContrar1/status/1711166016334553423
@RNCResearch: Biden National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan (last week): “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1710747691024879691 @MZHemingway: This man (Sullivan), a leader of the Russia collusion hoax and other damaging information operations, is a liar and a fraud. And the proof of his claim is in the eating of the pudding. He is a liar. More attention should be paid to him.
@Unfilteredboss1: The Middle East just changed forever. You will never convince Israel to exchange land for peace. You will never be able to convince them to show restraint going forward. You are going to see an Israel that gives zero f***s about what the international community says.
Fox’s @TreyYingst: The videos of dead Israeli soldiers and civilians being paraded through the streets of Gaza will be seared into Israeli minds for generations to come. The response from the Israeli military will likely go on for a long time. Difficult days ahead.
@NileGardiner: The evil terror attacks against Israel have taken place while America is asleep at the wheel under the clueless Biden Presidency. The US is in retreat under Joe Biden, from Afghanistan to the Middle East. No leadership or vision from the White House. Just weakness and appeasement.
@politicalelle: Rob Malley, the rabid pro-Iran installment of the Biden administration, was an Iranian spy. That this isn’t the biggest story in foreign policy world is insane. But the foreign policy blob must protect the Iran Deal at all costs. @seanmdav: In case you wondered how the United States managed to miss all signs that Iran was planning and funding a massive terrorist invasion of Israel, wonder no longer. The Biden administration’s top liaison to Iran was spying for it.
@thechrisbuskirk: One observation from the Hamas attack on Israel: the Iron Dome air defense system was overwhelmed by the initial volley of 2,000-5,000 rockets. Air defense is in extremely short supply right now because so much has been sent to Ukraine & subsequently destroyed. Replenishing will take years during which time there will be previously unconsidered vulnerabilities. Turns out escalating a major war in Europe increased risks worldwide – like some of us have been saying.
Fox’s @ChadPergram: From colleague Houston Keene. GOP CA Rep Issa is currently traveling overseas in the Middle East within “missile range” of Iran and Hamas. Issa warned that the war could see a “sustained campaign” and that decisions to protect Israel “are going to have to be made” in Congress, perhaps even before a new Speaker is elected… (More US spending will not appease Mr. Bond.)
Dem @GovWhitmer (MI): I have been in touch with communities impacted by what’s happening in the region. It is abhorrent. My heart is with all those impacted. We need peace in this region. (Whitmer is being slammed for not saying ‘Israel.’) @MAGAindex: Is this pathetic statement because Muslims control the Democrat party in Michigan now?
European leaders are mum about Hamas atrocities because of fear of their Arab populations. Hamas supporters celebrated in various European cities – and NYC. London: https://t.co/yLkl5T20Np
@EvaVlaar: Rotterdam today. Muslim communities all over Europe are coming out in support of Hamas’ efforts to wage their bloody jihad against Israel and its citizens. Everyone with a sense of reality can see it coming from miles away: the Muslim fighting-aged males throughout Europe will become more emboldened and militant as international jihadist factions vocalize their support for Hamas and their Holy War. Europe is in deep trouble. https://t.co/ztyinoLHMC
On Sunday, Israel declined war for the first time since 1973 (Yom Kippur War with Egypt & Syria).
From Friday’s King Report: As always, check the NFP seasonal adjustment, the 2-month revision, and compare the Household Report’s “Employed” to NFP.
US NFP for September are 336k, 170k was expected. The two-month revision is +119k. The Household Survey “Employed” is only 86k, an enormous divergence with NFP of 336k! Wages are 0.2% m/m & 4.2% y/y, both 0.1 less than expected – and very suspicious given the surge in NFP.
Most of the September NFP gains came from low-paying gigs: Leisure & Hospitality +96k; Government +73k; Health care +65.9k; Retail +19.7k; Manufacturing +15k, 5k expected https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm
@spomboy: Full Time employment is down a stunning -692k over just the last 3 months. The last 3 times this happened?? 2001, 2008 and Covid recession (2020)
@RealEJAntoni: Those not in the labor force rose to roughly 5 million more than pre-pandemic – this is artificially pushing down unemployment rate… yields an unemployment rate between 6.3 and 6.8%… What kinds of jobs were added? Entirely part-time (+151k); in fact, we LOST full-time jobs (-22k);last 3 months have seen part-time jump 1.2 million while full-time fell 700k (most since lockdowns); double counting of multiple jobholders (123k) was 37% of job gains… foreign-born workers are already back to pre-pandemic trend while native-born workers have never recovered; since Mar ’22, jobs disproportionately went to the foreign born… Something broke in the labor market in Mar ’22; the household and establishment surveys began to diverge and full-time job gains slowed dramatically; this continues today as nonfarm payrolls jumped 336k in Sep, employment level (household) only rose 86k… Lastly, the loss of full-time jobs and their replacement w/ part-time work is helping slow wage growth… https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1710301675234234566
@andrewliberty23: In the first nine months of 2023, the U.S. government has accounted for 22% of all new jobs, adding 412,000 positions to Uncle Sam’s payrolls.
ESZs and USZ tumbled on the suspiciously strong September NFP. ESZs, which hit a daily high of 4305.25 near 6:30 ET, tumbled to 4242.25 at 8:52 ET. The Pump & Dump operation then began. ESZs soared to 4276.00 at 9:31 ET. The ‘dump’ appeared one minute after the NYSE opening. ESZs sank to 4255.25 by 10:00 ET. But few people believe the September NFP is real. So, ESZs surged higher.
By 11:04 ET, ESZs turned positive; at noon ET, ESZs were 4339.50, +97.25 from the low. After an hour respite, ESZs rallied to new highs. By 14:45 ET, ESZs hit 4358.50, +106.25 from the low! ESZs then did a slow rollover until the close.
USZs hit a high of 111 14/32 at 22:00 ET and then tumbled to 108 29/32, – 2 16/32, at 8:52 ET. They bounced to 109 25/32 at 9:30 ET and then traded in a tight range until they broke higher at 10:23 ET. USZs hit 111 at 11:49 ET, +2 3/32 from the low. USZs then rolled over and went inert until they broke down near 15:35 ET. At the NYSE close, USZs were -1 8/32.
The US 30-year yield hit 5.1%; the 10-year hit 4.85% after the Jobs Report release. Gasoline and oil rallied sharply. Gold reversed from a low of 1823.50 to 1849 at 11:47 ET.
@stlouisfed: U.S. consumer credit fell $15.6 billion in August, the largest monthly drop since May 2020. Nonrevolving credit (auto and student loans) accounted for all of the decline, shrinking $30.3 billion, while revolving credit (credit cards) rose $14.7 billionhttps://t.co/lOIsbB2yOi
Positive aspects of previous session. Stocks rallied sharply after most players recognized that Sept NFP was bogus. Bonds rebounded over 2 points from their low.
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds still declined for the session Commodities rallies sharply after early declines.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will US government economic stat fabrication increase as the 2024 Election approaches?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4284.05 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4324.10; 4219.55
Chief of Staff of Pentagon Counterterrorism Office Served Iranian Gov. In 2021, when the State Department had brought in Tabatabai as a senior adviser to the Office of the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, a congressional letter urged that her security clearance be pulled. The letter stated that Tabatabai “has echoed Iranian regime talking points and has made excuses for Iran’s oppressive government… Now a Semafor article by former Wall Street Journal chief correspondent Jay Solomon based on materials gathered by Iran International’s dissident media channel has revealed emails showing Tabatabai’s participation in a secret Iranian government to influence the United States… In one leaked message, Tabatabai emailed her handler her article, co-written again with Esfandiary, titled, “Meeting Iran’s nuclear fuel supply needs”. “Our goal was to show what is said in the West – that Iran does not need more than 1500 centrifuges – is wrong, and that Iran should not be expected to reduce the number of its centrifuges,” she allegedly told her handler. Her handler then forwarded the email to Iran’s Foreign Minister Zarif… In 2021, Robert Malley, Biden’s Iran special envoy, currently under investigation for mishandling classified documents, who had turned over the negotiations to Iran lobbyists, brought Tabatabai into the negotiating team where she spent over a year before leaving over an undisclosed issue… https://politichicks.com/2023/10/greenfield-chief-of-staff-of-pentagon-counterterrorism-office-served-iranian-gov/
Early on Sunday in the Middle East, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for mortar and rocket attacks on three Israeli outposts in Shebaa Farms. The IDF moved forces to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon and the Golan Heights in Syria. Obama, who likes to pontificate on foreign matters, has been silent.
@Aviation_Intel: If Hezbollah attacks, there is nothing in history that will compare to how heavily taxed an integrated air defense system will be like then. Israel’s IADS is the most advanced and layered on earth, but the scale and variety of what will be sent south is unlike anything we’ve seen.
@MiddleEastEye: The US Department of Defense is planning to cut around 10% of its troops from the country’s special operation forces… https://t.co/BAQ8535yJy
@adamhousley: Meantime we have no idea what has come across our southern border. We literally have no clue what threats have come here.
Hamas fired rockets at Israel on Sunday. Hundreds of Israeli civilians were found alive, hiding in a canal. The US is sending warships (Gerald Ford strike force) and aircraft to the Mediterranean near Israel.
Ex-Trump HHS official @MichaelRCaputo: When the US steps in to assist our longtime ally Israel, tens of thousands of fighting-age Palestinians who crossed the US border with BidenCo assistance will execute a long-planned and coordinated attack inside America. Biden did this. Be prepared.
Today – Has a new proxy war, at the instigation of Russia and Iran, begun in the Middle East? Will it spread? What will happen to oil? How can Israel NOT strike Iran oil assets?Why would anyone, notably US allies, feel secure with Biden and Team Obama at the helm during a geopolitical crisis?
Given the various scandals plus the disastrous foreign and domestic initiatives of Obama surrogate Biden, only Republicans scan screw up the 2024 Elections! It times of geopolitical turmoil, people get defensive: Buy bonds and gold; sell stocks. ESZs are -31.00; USZs are +5/32; and WTI Oil is +3.2% at 20:20 ET. The US bond market is closed for Columbus Day.
Expected economic data: none; Fed VCEO Barr 8 ET, Dallas Fed Pres Logan on monetary policy 9 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4424; 100-day MA: 4393; 150-day MA: 4282; 200-day MA: 4208 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,515; 100-day MA: 34,266; 150-day MA: 33,895; 200-day MA: 33,803 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4476.15 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4323.61 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4270.67 triggers a sell signal
@FoxNews: McCarthy stands by averting shutdown in light of Israel attacks: ‘Think if we were shut down right now.’ (What a self-serving, narcissist clown! Good think he has been jettisoned as Speaker!)
Biden admin says it will start shipping illegal Venezuela migrants back to homeland (What changed? The polling must be horrendous!) https://t.co/ssm6K1Cuum
Fox: Hunter Biden attorney withdraws from federal gun charge case
Daily Mail EXCLUSIVE: Hunter withdrew $20K from daughter’s college fund to spend it on hookers and drugshttps://trib.al/5lGBKVA
The MSM excoriates the GOP when it looks like they will close the government over spending issues. But when a Dem threatens a government shutdown to get their way, they are mum.
@RNCResearch FLASHBACK TO 2018: Nancy Pelosi says she’s willing to keep “government closed forever” before she’ll pass border wall funding.https://t.co/6PEiWRt7Sw
Hillary Clinton calls for ‘formal deprogramming’ of Trump ‘cult members’ https://trib.al/XNdNNim (Dems protecting democracy? Can you imagine the outrage if a Rep said something like this?)
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: Hillary says the quiet part out loud – and reveals the Left’s true agenda. Use government to crush any opposition. Pure authoritarianism
@CBS_Herridge: Sources tell CBS News there is no indication former President Trump shared sensitive records with an Australian billionaire + no charges have been filed by the Special Counsel through their alleged discussion about US Nuclear subs was investigated. https://t.co/oPvDIpyeNN
It appears once again, some fed leaked BS about Trump to the media to harm DJT’s reputation/case.
@AndrewHenselTCS: Gov. J.B. Pritzker says the state has been using taxpayer funds meant for rental assistance to help care for the migrants arriving in Chicago. https://t.co/IuBgsZ1e97
@ChicagosMayor: Draw shades and turn off all non-essential lights from 11 p.m. to sunrise to protect birds, especially during the peak migration seasons. Other ways you can help: Stock your bird feeders; Grow native plants; Full and fresh water sources; Leave your leaves for shelter! (Nothing about crime?)
Dr. Ana Maria Mihalcea (aka Dr. Ana) is a Medical Doctor who also holds a PhD in pathology. Dr. Ana has been examining the blood of both the CV19 “vaccinated” and the unvaccinated. She calls the CV19 vax a bioweapon and points out she is finding nano technology, heavy metals and all sorts of biotech garbage in many people she examines. Dr. Ana sees this as an unfolding catastrophe for all of humanity because of the CV19 bioweapon vax that people were tricked, coerced or forced to take. Dr. Ana explains, “The Epoch Times just ran a story where 17 million people’s deaths with all-cause mortality have been attributed to these shots. This is just the beginning because this is a slow kill. . . . ‘Turbo cancers’ are up, all cause mortality and all the diseases of aging are up. What I am seeing in the blood is the whole idea of transhumanism. . . . I was part of an international team of doctors that looked into the Pfizer vials, and we saw self-assembling nanotechnology. Then, we started seeing the blood of humanity that is changing in terms of filament structures that were developing. Then, we saw all kinds of things in regard to shedding. Initially, only the vaccinated blood was affected, but the unvaccinated blood also started to be affected. . . . What I am observing is this is affecting all of humanity. . . . I believe this is so big it is literally in all of humanity now. . . . We are seeing hydrogel . . . and polymer rubbery plastic, and they self-assemble to a larger size. These clots that people are dying of are as long as 33 inches. I have been a doctor for more than 20 years, and I have never seen a clot 33 inches long.”
Dr. Ana says, “You have a 17-year-old high school kid fall over dead at a football game, and they say that’s just cause of death unknown. This is murder. We need to start using the right words. This (CV19 vaccine) was a biological and technological weapon of mass destruction that has been used to murder innocent young children. We know in the age group of 45 years old, there is a huge die-off. We know this weapon targets the ovaries and testis to diminish reproduction. We know the catastrophic numbers of still birth and miscarriages. Then, the shedding effect where unvaccinated women are hemorrhaging by getting in contact with the vaccinated. This is catastrophic for the human species, and it is literally an extinction level event. . . . The WEF (World Economic Forum) wants to depopulate . . . and also says the soul and spirit of humanity will be a thing of the past. . . . This has been injected into the blood of humanity. . . . The silence needs to be broken. There was active propaganda to suppress the information about the nanotechnology. . . . Our science says we have been right from the beginning. We need detoxification protocols . . . and we need to start looking at the blood because that is where the answers are. . . . Humanity is at stake here. Our species is at stake, and we need to fight now because we are running out of time.”
Dr. Ana says the good news is there are ways to detox and thwart the effects of the CV19 bioweapon vaccines. She likes Ivermectin, Nattokinase, EDTA, aspirin and high doses of vitamin C, to name a few. (More CV19 vax detox supplements here.)
There is much more in the 33-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes one-on-one with Dr. Ana Maria Mihalcea, who is on the front lines of the battle to save humanity from the evil New World Order killing machine of the CV19 bioweapon/vax for 10/7.23. (Dr. Ana’s Substack is here.)
COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis
harveyorganblog.com 
