OCT 24//GOLD CLOSED DOWN ONLY BY $1.30 AFTER A RAID ORCHESTRATED BY OUR BANKERS AS OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK BEGINS//SILVER CLOSED DOWN ONLY 8 CENTS TO $22.96//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $11.55 TO $888.70//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $6.40 TO $1126,85//ESSENTIAL READING MATERIAL TODAY: DR LACALLE AND ESPECIALLY CONRAD BLACK//UPDATES ON ISRAEL VS HAMAS//COVID UPDATES// VACCINE INJURIES//USA DATA ON PMI//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 9 661 C JP MORGAN 10 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 70 880 H CITIGROUP 75 905 C ADM 5
TOTAL: 85 85 MONTH TO DATE: 10,962
JPMorgan stopped 1.85 contracts.
FOR OCT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 85 NOTICES FOR 85,000 OZ or 0.2643 TONNES
total notices so far: 10,962 contracts for 1,096,200 oz (34.096 tonnes)
FOR OCT:
SILVER NOTICES:1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 512 for 2,560,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 444.391 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY STRONG SIZED 693CONTRACTS TO 124,506 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG $0.33 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUGE SIZED 791 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 791 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAD 693OI. CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL! WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.33). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 42 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS WITH LITTLE SUCCESS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 125 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.000 MILLION OZ TODAY+ 4.2 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR////NEW STANDING IS THUS 2.640 MILLION OZ NORMAL SILVER DELIVERY + 4.2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.84 MILLION OZ/////SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1104CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 693 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 days, total 17,087 contracts: OR 85.435 MILLION OZ (1067 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 85.435 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 85.435 MILLION OZ (THIS IS GOING TO BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE//
RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 693 CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.33 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 125 ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. . WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP:+ A NEW ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.000 MILLION OZ. THUS NEW TOTAL OF SILVER STANDING: 2.640 MILLION OZ+ 4.2 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.84 MILLION OZ//// /// WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 568 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 791 CONTRACTS//LITTLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT A HUGE (791) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3116 CONTRACTS TO 461,986 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 556 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 3116 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $6.80 LOSS IN PRICE//MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 8300 OZ QUEUE JUMP /NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 34.221 TONNES/ + /A HUGE (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 3632 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$6.80 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6250 OI CONTRACTS (19.440 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3134CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 461,986
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6250 CONTRACTS WITH 3116 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 3134 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6250CONTRACTS OR19.440TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 3632 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3134 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3116) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6,250 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 8300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 34.221 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND LITTLE TAS LIQUIDATION BUT SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 3632 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 68,897 CONTRACTS OR 6,889,700 OZ OR 214.29 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4306 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 214.29TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 214.29/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.02% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 214.29 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 693 CONTRACTS OI TO 124,506 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A SMALL 125 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 125and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 125 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 693 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 125 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 568 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 2.84 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.33 LOSS IN PRICE …..(SOME SHORT COVERINGS)
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.95 PTS OR 0.78% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 180.60 PTS OR 1.05% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 62.80 PTS OR 0.20% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.22 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.3100 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.3188 /Oil DOWN TO 85.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 90.04/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3116CONTRACTS TO 461,986 DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.80 ON MONDAY. OUR SHORT SPECULATORS COVERED A BIT OF THEIR POSITIONS DURING COMEX TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3134 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 3134 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3134 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6250 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3672LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3116 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.80//MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE 3632 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (34.221) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 34.221 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $6.80) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 6806TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF MONDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. IT DID HAVE SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE MASSIVE PRICE INCREASE.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 19.44 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 8,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:34.221 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.80. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS. SPECULATORS YESTERDAY ADDED TO THEIR HUGE SHORTS.
WE HAD REMOVED 556 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6250 CONTRACTS OR 62500 OZ OR 19.44 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,962 notices 1,096,200 OZ 34.096 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 1
i) Into ASAHI 31,974.376 oz
total customer deposits: 31,974.376 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks: 11,027.790 OZ (343 kilobars)
total withdrawals 11,027.790 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 125 contracts having LOST 296 contracts. We had 379 contracts filed on Monday, so we gained 83 contracts or an additional 8300 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this active delivery month of October. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis. We had the commencement of gold speculator short covering last Thursday and this action by the banker longs will continue until the specs have been annihilated
NOV LOST 116 CONTRACTS to stand at 1466
December GAINED 1988 contracts up to 370,498 contracts.
We had 85 contracts filed for today representing 8500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 10 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 85 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,962 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (125 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 85 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,100,200 OZ OR 34.221 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT.contract month: No of notices filed so far (10,962) x 100 oz + (125) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (85) x 100 oz) which equals 1,100,200oz standing OR 34.221 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 34.221 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 19,850,264.173 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,977,102.543 (310.329 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,873,161.630 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,063,851(REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 250.81 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 24
//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
6052.163 oz
Brinks Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
559,541.399 oz ASAHI Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
1 CONTRACT(S) (5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
16 contracts (80,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
512 Contracts (2,560,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) Into ASAHI 558,541.800 oz
ii) Into Delaware: 999.599.01
total customer deposit 559,541.399 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441 million oz/270.485 million or 49.55%
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of Brinks: 3014.600 oz
ii) out of Delaware: 3037.563 oz
total: 6052.163 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.633 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 270.435 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 17 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 3 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED
ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A QUEUE JUMP OF NIL OZ
NOVEMBER LOST 12 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 429
DEC. LOST 1173 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 96,959 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for 5,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 47,873//poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 54,509 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 512 x 5,000 oz = 2,560,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (17) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 512 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (17) – number of notices served upon today (1 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 2.640 million oz + .0 MILLION oz of exchange for risk today + 4.2 million oz prior//new totals: 6.840 million oz.
There are 37.633 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE 15.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $57.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES
OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 860.07 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
OCT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.658 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.736 MILLION OZ
OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.664 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.730 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.825 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.769 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF .366 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.594 MILLION OZ
OCT 10/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ
OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 444.871 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Biden Administration Runs Third-Largest Budget Deficit In History
The Biden administration ran a $1.695 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023. It was the third-largest deficit in US history. The only time the US government ran bigger deficits was during the COVID years of 2020 and 2021.
The deficit would have been even higher had it not been for an accounting move in August that reversed student loan forgiveness.
Last year, the Treasury expensed $333.65 trillion for the student loan forgiveness plan signed by President Biden. When the Supreme Court struck the scheme down, the Treasury had to reverse that expense. That means the actual shortfall was more than $2 trillion this year — $3 trillion higher than the official numbers.
The 2023 budget shortfall was bigger than any run during the Obama administration during the Great Recession, and yet this economy is supposedly strong. Typically, strong economies result in smaller deficits as tax revenue rises.
That was not the case in fiscal 2023. Federal Receipts fell by 9.3% to $4.44 trillion.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was quick to blame falling tax receipts for the big deficit and said it underscores “the importance of President Biden’s enacted and proposed policies to reform the tax system.
But the big problem is on the spending side of the ledger. Strong receipts last year papered over the spending problem.
The US government blew through $6.13 trillion in fiscal 2023. That was down slightly from last year’s total expenditures, but the numbers were skewed by student loan forgiveness accounting. If you factor out the reversal of student loan forgiveness, the Biden administration spent $6.46 trillion in fiscal 2023, an 8.8% year-over-year increase in actual spending.
The Biden administration already wants more money. The president recently proposed a $100 billion aid package for Israel, Ukraine and other “national security” priorities.
Keep in mind that the feds now have a credit card with no limit.
And despite the caterwauling of a few Republicans, virtually nobody in Washington DC is interested in addressing this spending problem.
The fundamental issue wasn’t that the US government didn’t have enough money. The fundamental problem was, and still is, that the US government spends too much money. Despite the pretend spending cuts, the debt ceiling deal didn’t address that problem. Even with the new plan in place, spending will go up. And it’s already historically high. That means big budget deficits will continue and the national debt will mount.
It’s easy to finger-point at President Biden and blame him for the spending problem, but this isn’t exclusive to the current administration. Trump also borrowed and spent like the proverbial drunken sailor.
To put the deficit in perspective, prior to the pandemic, the US government had only run deficits over $1 trillion four times — all in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Trump almost hit the $1 trillion mark in 2019 and was on pace to run a trillion-dollar deficit prior to the pandemic when the US supposedly enjoyed the “best economy” ever. The economic catastrophe caused by the government’s response to COVID-19 gave policymakers an excuse to spend with no questions asked. Now the Biden administration has settled into the new status quo – running ’08 financial crisis-like deficits every single year.
THE BIGGER PROBLEM
This rapid increase in the national debt is happening during a time of sharply rising interest rates. This is a big problem for a government that primarily depends on borrowing to pay its bills.
Interest expense rose by 23% to $879 billion. Net interest, excluding intragovernmental transfers to trust funds, rose by 39% to $659 billion. Both of those numbers broke records.
Gross interest payments amounted to 3.28% as a share of gross domestic product, according to a Treasury Department official quoted by Reuters. That was the highest since 2001. The net share of interest expense came in at 2.45%, the highest since 1998.
The average interest rate on the debt is now at the highest level since 2011, coming in at 2.92% as of the end of August. But that’s still relatively low, and the debt is more than double what it was back in the good ol’ days of 2011.
Meanwhile, the average interest rate is poised to climb rapidly. A lot of the debt currently on the books was financed at very low rates before the Federal Reserve started its hiking cycle. Every month, some of that super-low-yielding paper matures and has to be replaced by bonds yielding much higher rates. That means interest payments will quickly climb much higher unless rates fall.
To give you an idea of where we’re heading, T-bills currently yield about 5.5%, the two-year yield is over 5% and the 10-year currently yields close to 5%.
Rising interest rates drove interest payments to over 35% as a percentage of total tax receipts. In other words, the government is already paying more than a third of the taxes it collects on interest expense.
If interest rates remain elevated, or continue rising, interest expenses could climb rapidly into the top three federal expenses. (You can read a more in-depth analysis of the national debt HERE.)
Peter Schiff provided some context in a tweet.
US debt was 119% of GDP in 1946. Budget surpluses in 4 of the next 5 years reduced it to 68% by 1953, the largest was 4.3% in 1948, the equivalent to $1.16 trillion in today’s dollars. The same reduction today requires about $30 trillion of tax hikes and spending cuts by 2030.”
In his podcast, Schiff called this a “fiscal timebomb in the process of exploding.”
It’s a compounding situation. We have to borrow the money to pay that interest. Every nickel that the government pays in interest on the debt it has to borrow. All that additional borrowing adds to the national debt, which then has to be financed at a higher rate.”
If the national debt climbs to $40 trillion (and given the current deficits it won’t take long) and interest rates remain at 5% (which Jerome Powell says will be necessary to tackle inflation) interest payments on the debt alone would skyrocket around $2 trillion per year. That means that even if the US government balanced the budget so receipts covered all spending minus interest payments, we’d still be facing a $2 trillion annual deficit.
Of course, there won’t be a balanced budget. So, let’s assume the federal government can maintain the current deficit level of around $1 trillion annually (minus interest expense). Even with this overly optimistic scenario, the Treasury would be running a $3 trillion annual budget deficit. (That’s the current $1 trillion deficit plus $2 trillion in interest expenses.)
And the most likely scenario is spending will continue to climb, along with the budget deficits. There’s no telling how high the annual deficits could run.
This is a fiscal powder keg. All it needs is a match.
END
Peter Schiff: Jerome Powell Isn’t Qualified To Be In Any Economic Club
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York luncheon. In his podcast, Peter Schiff broke down some of the Fed chair’s comments and concluded that Powell is not qualified to be a member of any economic club.
Peter opened the discussion by saying Powell is not the person to bring in if you want accurate answers about the economy.
He doesn’t know what’s going on. And if he does, he’s not going to be honest. He’s going to lie. He probably doesn’t know. He’s clueless. And he lies on top of that.”
Peter said that if the Economic Club of New York asked him all the same questions they asked Powell, all of his answers would be the exact opposite.
I’m sure that most of the members of the Economic Club of New York, maybe all the members, know more about economics than Jerome Powell. Because you have to flunk a test about economics in order to qualify to be a member of the Federal Reserve. In fact, you probably can’t even get to be a Federal Open Market Committee member if you actually know anything about economics.”
There are a number of things Powell said that seem to support Peter’s assertion.
The Economy Isn’t Spending
Powell claimed the Fed needs to weaken the economy in order to bring down inflation. Peter said the notion that economic growth causes inflation is a “complete fallacy” and a “Keynesian myth.”
The problem is that Powell and many others in the mainstream misdefine economic growth. When they say, “economic growth,” they really mean consumer spending. They’re looking at metrics such as retail sales and GDP growth.
That’s not economic growth. That’s just spending. That’s not growing the economy. That’s spending what a growing economy produces.”
When you look at retail sales numbers, much of that increase is due to rising prices. And to maintain the spending spree, Americans are borrowing a lot of money. In fact, the “unsinkable” American consumer is growing in debt. Meanwhile, many people have taken on second and third jobs just to make ends meet.
If you’re just looking at the spending, and you think, ‘Oh, we have this really strong economy,’ No! It’s not a strong economy. You’re looking at inflation! … Inflation is driving this spending.”
That means you don’t have to “weaken” the economy to reduce inflation. You just need to reduce spending. You certainly don’t want people to stop working. If they aren’t working, they aren’t producing.
That means there’s less stuff. That puts upward pressure on prices. We want everybody to keep working. We just want them to stop spending everything they earn. They need to take some of their paychecks and save it — put it in the bank.”
But Powell thinks spending is the economy and the consumer drives things by buying stuff.
No! The consumer is the caboose. He’s driven by the real engine of the economy, which is production. That’s what we need more of. We need a stronger economy, but we need less spending, less consumption, more savings, more investment.”
The Pandemic Caused Inflation?
Powell also claimed the pandemic caused price inflation. He acts as if everything was fine until the pandemic and then prices just started going up.
The pandemic is not why we have inflation. The Fed is why we have inflation. Congress, the president are why we have inflation. And not just Biden, but Trump and the presidents before him. They were all contributing to the inflation problem that we’re dealing with today.”
It is true that the inflation problem got worse during COVID. But it wasn’t the pandemic. It was the government response to the pandemic.
The pandemic was a health problem. What the government did was turn it into an inflation problem. Because they overreacted, number one. They forced people to stop working. And then they ran huge deficits to send people stimulus checks to buy stuff that they weren’t making. It was the worst combination of monetary and fiscal policy ever devised.”
That raises a question. If Powell doesn’t know where price inflation came from, how is he going to get rid of it?
The Banking Crisis Isn’t Over
Referencing the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other financial institutions last spring, Powell was asked if the banking crisis is over. He said we handled it and it’s basically behind us.
Peter disagreed.
It’s just getting started. That was the tip of the iceberg.”
Peter said all you have to do to see the underlying problem is to look at how much value banks of lost on their mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries since the March bailout.
It’s been an enormous collapse. And so the banks today are in far worse shape than they were back in March when Silicon Valley Bank failed. The Fed should know this because the Fed is the biggest loser of them all. The Fed has more Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities on its balance sheet than anybody else. So, the Fed is the biggest loser, and somehow they think the crisis is behind us when it’s all out in front of us, and it’s about to be playing out in front of their eyes.”
The “Problem” of Low Inflation
Powell worried out loud that inflation could potentially get too low. He said that was the problem in the past and now we have the problem of high inflation.
Peter said “low” inflation was never a problem.
That was a made-up problem so they could have an excuse to create more inflation. Now we’ve got a real problem of inflation being too high.”
In 2020, Powell started talking about inflation averaging. Instead of targeting 2%, Fed officials pivoted to an average 2% target over time.
They wanted to justify letting inflation get to two-and-a-quarter, two-and-a-half. They didn’t want to have to put in the brakes when we hit two. They wanted to make up for all the years where we were below two. So, they redefined their target to an average inflation rate of 2%. No one talks about that now. I mean, they haven’t officially changed that, but how many years are we going to have to have 1% inflation to average it down to two?
In fact, we really need falling prices in order to get the average back to 2%. But the central bankers never want to do that. They just want to average up.
Powell Doesn’t Consider Fiscal Policy
When asked about government borrowing and spending, and the massive budget deficits, Powell said he doesn’t consider fiscal policy at all when developing monetary policy. He also insisted the Fed doesn’t change monetary policy based on fiscal policy. He talked as if fiscal policy isn’t part of the central bank’s mandate.
Peter said it has everything to do with their mandate.
Where’s the inflation coming from? It’s coming from the budget deficits that he monetizes. And government spending is driving inflation. If you’re trying to ‘slow down’ the economy, or just trying to cool consumption, if the government is increasing spending, that is counteracting what you’re trying to do. How could you avoid that? How can you not care about that?”
Peter said the whole idea behind Fed independence is so the central bank can push back against reckless fiscal policy.
The Fed is supposed the be the chaperone here at this spending party, and if Congress is spending too much money, well, jack up rates. Make it harder for them to do that. Raise the cost of borrowing so that they cut back.”
Peter said it’s like a doctor ignoring a patient’s symptoms and prescribing whatever treatment he fancies.
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.3100
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.3188
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.95 PTS OR 0.78%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 180.60 PTS OR 1.05%
2. Nikkei closed UP 62.80 PTS OR 0.20 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.68 EURO FALLS TO 1.0638 DOWN 31 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.845 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.75/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.8315***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.814*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.9240…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.191
3j Gold at $1961.00 silver at: 22.81 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 98 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 93.35//
3m oil into the 85 dollar handle for WTI and 90 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.75// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.845% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8929 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9499 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.857 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.996 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.086 UP 22 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.10…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.6170
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Rise, Bitcoin Erupts Ahead Of Mega-Tech Earnings
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 08:19 AM
Global stocks rose, US index futures jumped and bitcoin erupted higher ahead of closely-watched earnings from tech gigacaps Microsoft and Alphabet later today (full preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.6%, at session highs and set to snap a five-day losing streak with Nasdaq futures also higher by 0.6%. Treasuries stabilized, with the US 10-year yield dropping as low as 4.80% before reversing gains, amid growing speculation that the recent selloff was excessive. Treasury 10-year yields slipped as much as five basis points to a one-week low before paring the move. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index edged higher.
Bitcoin topped $35,000, rising to the highest level since May 2022, while the euro swung to a loss against the dollar as data showed the French and German economies struggling.
In premarket trading, shares in cryptocurrency-linked companies gained in US premarket trading, with Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, Hut 8 Mining and Cleanspark all surging at least 12%. Nvidia and Arm Holdings rose, set to extend gains, after Bloomberg reported that Nvidia is using Arm technology to develop processors in personal computers. Intel shares were on track to fall for a third consecutive session. NVDA up 1.6%. ARM shares rise 2.6%. Spotify was down 2.5% even as third-quarter results and fourth-quarter guidance beat the average analyst estimate. Its forecast for monthly active users was also better than expected. Citi wrote that the stock’s negative reaction was surprising. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Cadence Design Systems shares decline 3.3% after the electronic design automation software company’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share forecast did not meet consensus expectations.
DraftKings advances 3.5% after MoffettNathanson raises the online sports-betting company to buy from neutral, citing its expense management and revenue that continues to top expectations.
IonQ drops as much as 20%, on track to hit a four-month low, after the quantum computing company said in a statement its co-founder and chief science officer Dr. Chris Monroe, will leave the company.
Medpace jumps 7.9% after the health-care services provider boosted its current-year revenue forecast and gave a range for next year that was ahead of expectations. The company also reported third-quarter revenue and earnings per share that beat estimates.
Redfin rises 11% after the online real estate company said that funds managed by Apollo Capital Management agreed to commit up to $250 million of financing in the form of a first lien term loan facility.
TrueBlue shares drop 17% after the staffing company’s third-quarter earnings and fourth-quarter revenue forecast fell short of analyst expectations, with the firm noting that the operating environment “remains soft.”
VMware Inc. shares drop 5.3% moving closer to the $142.50, the amount that shareholders would receive if they elected to get paid in cash rather than stock in Broadcom’s acquisition of the cloud-computing company.
As noted earlier, all eyes now turn to the giga caps tech companies with MSFT and GOOGL reporting after the close today(full preview here). Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said he expects a strong outcome from top technology and growth firms, despite the earnings season’s sluggish start so far.
Treasuries have stadied after some of the market’s most prominent bears warned of an economic slowdown, sparking bets the declines have overshot and that the Federal Reserve will need to lower interest rates. Wild swings in government debt are unsettling investors as a resilient economy makes it hard to work out when the Fed will halt rate hikes. Surging government issuance and geopolitical tensions are also clouding the outlook.
“I don’t think you should be pounding the table saying this is the absolute best time to buy,” said Patrick Armstrong, chief investment officer at Plurimi Wealth LLP. “But I would not be shorting.”
Brent crude halted two days of losses, climbing above $90 per barrel. French President Emmanuel Macron called for an international coalition to fight Hamas and warned other Iranian-backed militant groups not to open new fronts in the war, as he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a trip to Israel.
European stocks are also higher with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.2% as it looks to snap a 5-day losing streak; basic resources and utilities stocks as the biggest outpeformers, while banks and automobiles lead declines as Barclays shares slumped after a trading division miss and lower guidance. Here are some of the biggest European movers:
Hermes rises as much as 3.3% in Paris trading after third-quarter sales beat estimates, with analysts noting that the luxury-goods maker held up across all regions, benefiting from its exposure to a wealthy and loyal customer base against a slower macroeconomic backdrop
Logitech shares rise as much as 11% to April 2022 high after the Swiss maker of keyboards, webcams and other computer accessories reported sales for the second quarter that beat analysts’ average estimate
Stora Enso rises as much as 7.2%, the most since July, after third-quarter results from the Finnish paper and packaging company beat “low buy-side Ebit expectations,” according to Jefferies analysts
Puma shares jump as much as 5.7% after the sportswear brand’s constant-currency third-quarter revenue beat consensus estimates, reassuring analysts who noted a recent run of weakness in the stock
Norsk Hydro shares rise as much as 6.7% in early trading, the most in nearly a year, after the aluminum supplier reported third-quarter results
Nemetschek shares rise as much as 8.8%, the most since April, after the software company raised full-year guidance on the back of stronger-than-expected preliminary 3Q results
Nordnet shares advance as much as 8.7%, the most since Nov. 2022, after the Swedish investment and savings platform’s third-quarter results come in ahead expectations
Barclays shares fall as much as 8.7% after the British lender reduced its guidance for UK net interest margin, which Citi expects to be met with “significant disappointment”
DSV falls as much as 2.6% after the Danish logistics group lowered and narrowed its guidance for the full year. While its third-quarter earnings arrived broadly in line with analysts expectations
Sandoz slipped as much as 4.6%% at open after reporting revenue in line with guidance, with analysts noting the slowdown in North American sales
Bunzl drops as much as 6.8%, the most since Aug. 2022, after the UK distribution company’s third-quarter underlying revenue growth lagged analyst expectations
Softcat shares fall as much as 13%, the biggest intraday drop since 2020, after the UK IT reseller said its operating profit growth will be weighted toward 2H of fiscal 2024 due to tough comparisons in 1H
As Bloomberg’s Jan-Patrick Barnert notes, European stock market declines the past few months have been broad-based across major benchmarks, but with the correction now at 10% or more in several regions, there could be a rebound coming, given oversold conditions and the Stoxx 600 at a major technical level. All that is needed would be convinced buyers.
However, that may be a tough call. Headline risks from geopolitics are far from over, plus there’s ongoing uncertainty regarding the European economic cycle — and more importantly tightening credit. There is some doubt if investors are already in the dip-buying mood. Instead, they may move hedging away from one-day event risk to adjusting positions that they can work with even among longer term unknows. This could finally spur some cautious dip-buying.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, as investors looked to corporate earnings and Treasury market moves for cues after the regional stock benchmark tumbled to an 11-month low on Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed up 0.3%. In Asia, most Chinese stock gauges rose after the nation’s sovereign wealth fund bought exchange-traded funds to shore up prices. The rebound in Chinese equities “shows that while it may still be too early to call a bottom, the authorities are making it a rule to step on the brakes whenever there looks like there’s overwhelming downward momentum,” said Raymond Chen, fund manager at Zizhou Investment Asset Management.
The Hang Seng Index fell to its lowest level since last November as trading resumed after a holiday. Japanese stocks declined, with EV and tech supplier Nidec tumbling 10% after a quarterly earnings miss. Stocks climbed in Singapore and Indonesia. The volatile session follows a four-day slide in the key regional gauge, amid concerns over China’s economy as well as geopolitical risks in the Middle East and high US interest rates. Traders were closely monitoring moves in bond markets after some prominent investors said the historic rout in US Treasuries has gone too far. Treasury 10-year yields fell slightly in Asian trading.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened mixed with the former playing catch-up following its long weekend, whilst the latter gained as reports also suggested US and China held the first working group meeting.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gave up the 31k level in early trade as the prior day’s firming of the JPY weighed on the export-heavy index.
Australia’s ASX 200 traded in the green with the upside led by Metals & Mining following the prior session’s gains in the complex, although gold names lag after the precious metal unwound some geopolitical risk premium after the weekend.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat. The Aussie is the best performer among the G-10’s, rising 0.4% versus the greenback.
In rates US treasuries were mixed, reversing gains that initially pushed 10-year yields back below 4.80%, with the curve flatter as front-end trades cheaper on the day, unwinding a portion of Monday’s aggressive rally. Long-end Treasuries outperformed, with 30-year yields little changed; 10-year yields were around 4.865% and slightly cheaper on the day after breaching 4.80% in early London session, trailing bunds and gilts by 6bp and 4bp in the sector; long-end outperformance in Treasuries flattens the curve, tightening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 2.5bp and 3bps. In Europe, bunds outperform after October PMI figures for Germany and euro-area broadly miss median estimates. US auction cycle starts with 2-year note sale at 1pm New York time. The Treasury auction cycle includes $51b 2-year note, followed by 5- and 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday. The WI 2-year yield at ~5.05% is 3.5bp richer than September’s auction, which stopped on the screws. The dollar IG issuance slate empty so far after just one deal was priced on Monday; around $20 billion in new bond sales are expected this week.
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.4% to trade near $86. Spot gold falls 0.4%.
Bitcoin surges over 8%, fueled by expectations of fresh demand from exchange-traded funds.
Turning to the day ahead. In terms of data, we have the global flash PMIs for October in the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, and the Eurozone. In the US, we also have the October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am), S&P Global PMIs (9:45am) and Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10am). In the UK, we have the September jobless claims change results and the August unemployment rate, as well as the German November GfK consumer confidence, and the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey. Finally, we have earnings releases from both Microsoft and Alphabet, as well as Visa, Coca-Cola, Danaher, Texas Instruments, Verizon, General Electric, NextEra Energy, Fiserv, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, and Dow Inc.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,249.50
MXAP up 0.3% to 152.08
MXAPJ up 0.3% to 476.22
Nikkei up 0.2% to 31,062.35
Topix little changed at 2,240.73
Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 16,991.53
Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 2,962.24
Sensex down 1.3% to 64,571.88
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,856.86
Kospi up 1.1% to 2,383.51
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 431.74
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.79%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0648
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $89.52/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,974.11
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.15% to 105.70
Top Overnight News
China is set to unleash fresh fiscal stimulus to shore up its economic recovery, drawing on a well-used playbook that relies heavily on debt and state spending but falls short on the deeper reforms called for by a growing number of analysts. China’s parliament is set to approve just over 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in additional sovereign debt issuance when it concludes a five-day meeting that began on Oct. 20. RTRS
Xi Jinping made his first known visit to China’s central bank since he became president a decade ago, according to people familiar with the matter, underscoring the government’s increased focus on shoring up the economy and financial markets. BBG
The BOJ announced an unscheduled bond operation on Tuesday, as it sought to slow a rise in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields that had brought them to fresh decade highs. Japan’s central bank offered to buy 300 billion yen ($2.00 billion) in bonds with maturities of five to 10 years and 100 billion yen worth with maturities of 10-25 years from Wednesday. RTRS
Europe’s flash PMIs fall short of expectations in Oct, w/manufacturing at 43 (down from 43.4 in Sept and below the Street’s 43.7 forecast) and services at 47.8 (down from 48.7 in Sept and below the Street’s 48.6 forecast). The region’s economy saw its downturn accelerate, with private sector output falling at the fastest pace in more than 10 years (ex-COVID). RTRS
The Biden administration is concerned that Israel lacks achievable military objectives in Gaza, and that the Israel Defense Forces are not yet ready to launch a ground invasion with a plan that can work, senior administration officials said. NYT
The US ramped up its rhetoric toward Iran, saying it would hold Tehran accountable for drone and rocket attacks on US troops by its proxies in the Middle East, even as Washington tries to avert a wider regional war. BBG
Global demand for oil will reach its peak this decade, the IEA predicted for the first time, amid growing demand for EVs and the cooling of China’s economy. The agency also lowered its projections for gas consumption for a fourth straight year, according to its annual World Energy Outlook. BBG
Jamie Dimon said central banks’ forecasts were “dead wrong” about 18 months ago. “I don’t think it makes a piece of difference whether rates go up 25 basis points or more, like zero, none, nada,” he said. Also at the FII summit in Riyadh, Ray Dalio voiced pessimism on the global economy, and Larry Fink said he expects the Fed to raise rates further. BBG
Bitcoin jumped to the highest since May 2022 — topping $35,000 before paring some gains — after a court ruled the SEC must reconsider Grayscale’s bid for a spot Bitcoin ETF. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following a similar lead from Wall Street with Mainland China leading the gains overnight. ASX 200 traded in the green with the upside led by Metals & Mining following the prior session’s gains in the complex, although gold names lag after the precious metal unwound some geopolitical risk premium after the weekend. Nikkei 225 gave up the 31k level in early trade as the prior day’s firming of the JPY weighed on the export-heavy index. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened mixed with the former playing catch-up following its long weekend, whilst the latter gained as reports also suggested US and China held the first working group meeting.
Top Asian News
The US Treasury Department said the US and China held the first meeting of the economic working group which serves as a channel to discuss bilateral economic policies, according to Reuters.
Former Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has retained his position as office director for a key economic policymaking body headed by Chinese President Xi, according to SCMP sources.
Japan aims to set shared standards with the US and Europe on subsidies for EVs, chips and other “critical fields”, according to Nikkei citing the Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Japan will extend until Spring 2024 subsidies to curb utility bills and will extend until April 2024 subsidies to curb fuel prices, according to a draft economic package cited by Reuters.
BoJ unscheduled bond purchases: offered to buy JPY 100bln in 10-25yr JGBs and JPY 300bln in 5-10yr, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 593bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 522bln net daily injection.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1786 vs exp. 7.2992 (prev. 7.1792).
BoJ is said to see little need to change forward guidance, according to Bloomberg citing officials; adds is considering whether to tweak YCC given US yield concerns. Discussion over YCC is reportedly not due to the growing risk of upward price fluctuations but the impact on Japanese yields from the upside in US rates. Officials see there being little need to remove the following line from its guidance “If necessary, we will not hesitate to take additional monetary easing measures.”
Chinese President Xi has made an unprecedented visit to the PBoC in a “sign of focus on the economy”, according to Bloomberg.
European bourses were initially pressured from soft PMIs and as EZ credit standards continued to tighten. Since then, the space has recovered back into the green as newsflow slows somewhat but has featured favourable updates that Israel is willing to delay its Gaza ground invasion by a few days, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%. Within Europe, sectors are being dictated by earnings with Basic Resources outperforming after favourable reports from sector heavyweights while Banking names lag post-Barclays. US futures have been directionally in-fitting but with magnitudes slightly more contained than those in Europe, ES +0.4% and above 4250; NQ +0.7% continues to outperform ahead of numerous mega-cap corporate updates incl. Microsoft & Alphabet. General Electric Co (GE) Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.82 (exp. 0.56), Adj. Revenue 16.50bln (exp. 15.7bln). Raises FY Adj. EPS view 2.55-2.65 (prev. 2.10-2.30; exp. 2.36), FY organic Revenue view “low teens” (prev. “low double digits”). +6.0% in pre-market trade.
Top European News
German Economy Minister has promised industry EUR 50bln in tax relief over the coming four years, according to Handelsblatt. Additionally, Habeck is reportedly planning industrial policy which is geared towards state support and is looking to loosen the debt brake to attain this, via Welt & Suddeutsche Zeitung.
REUTERS POLL: BoE to hold the Bank Rate at 5.25% on Nov 2nd, according to 61 out of 73 economists; 12 expect 25bps rise to 5.50%; first BoE rate cut to 5.0% to come in Q3 2023 (unch. from Sept poll).
FX
Aussie and Euro flank G10 ranks as AUD/USD rebounds through 0.6350 with incentive from hawkish RBA rhetoric, but EUR/USD loses 1.0650+ status after disappointing EZ PMIs.
DXY regains poise between 105.350-780 parameters as US Treasuries top out pre-PMIs and 2 year supply.
Yen pivots 149.50 vs Dollar amidst more BoJ source reports touting the potential for YCC tweak.
Sterling straddles 1.2250 in wake of roughly in line UK PMIs and dip in ILO jobless rate.
RBA’s Bullock says the Board will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation. It is possible that the inflation goal can be achieved with the cash rate at its current level but there are risks that could see inflation return to target more slowly than currently forecast.
Fixed Income
Bonds extend bull-flattening correction before petering out.
Bunds reach 129.12 from 128.22, Gilts climb from 92.71 to 93.34 and T-note fades at 106-22 compared to 106-08+ overnight low ahead of US PMIs and 2 year note auction.
Commodities
Commodities have experienced some modest divergence with crude benchmarks initially firmer but slipping in the wake of another batch of soft PMIs from the EZ; price action which was exacerbated by PMI-induced EUR pressure and associated USD strength as a result, pushing the contracts to eventual session lows of USD 85.09/bbl and USD 89.46/bbl for WTI & Brent Dec’23 respectively.
Thereafter, the crude complex has moved back marginally into the green amid reports around China’s Xi and details within the latest Axios piece.
Spot gold has dipped marginally into the red amid the EUR-driven bout of USD strength. Though, the yellow metal remains comfortably above technical figures with the 10-DMA closest at USD 1935/oz compared to the current USD 1965/oz session trough which itself is just USD 1 above Monday’s base.
Base metals are similarly supported after Monday’s marked pressure and perhaps deriving support from the Chinese-driven APAC session, the mentioned PBoC/Xi visit and numerous well-received European earnings in the space.
Geopolitics: Israel-Hamas
Israel confirmed two hostages released by Hamas were handed over to the Israeli military, according to a statement.
US President Biden, when asked about a ceasefire, said we should have hostages released, according to Reuters.
IDF said it has “attacked several Hezbollah targets, including a surveillance and monitoring post in southern Lebanon”, according to Al Arabiya.
“Israeli occupation forces storm the village of Burqa, north of Nablus in the West Bank, amid gunfire”, according to Al Jazeera.
US official said Iran is seeking to escalate the conflict in the region, according to Bloomberg, adding Iranian fingerprints are all over the uptick in attacks while adding US presence in the Middle East includes intel sharing.
Russian Foreign Minister says “US reinforcements in the Middle East threaten to escalate tensions, according to Al Arabiya.
China’s Foreign Minister had a call with the Israeli Foreign Minister on Monday, according to Chinese state media.
US President Biden spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu on Monday and discussed the war in Gaza, according to Axios citing a White House official.
Israel is willing to delay its ground invasion of Gaza by a few days to allow for talks on releasing a large number of hostages that Hamas is holding, via Axios citing officials. Though, officials add that even if a hostage deal is attained they will not drop plans for a ground assault into Gaza.
Geopolitics: Other
Russian President Vladimir Putin suffered a cardiac arrest in the presidential bedroom on Sunday, an insider group revealed; he regained consciousness, according to Sky News Australia citing unverified Telegram reports. Subsequently, Russian Kremlin says President Putin is fine, reports of ill-health are fake. Adds, talks of a Putin body double is an absurd hoax.
“Iran-backed militants have launched a drone attack against the al-Omar oil field, which hosts the largest US base in Syria, causing two explosions in the area”, according to Iran International citing Syrian press.
US Navy announces interception of missiles and drones launched by the Houthis across the Red Sea days ago”, according to Al Arabiya.
US Secretary of State Blinken is to host China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Washington between Oct 26-28th, according to a senior admin official cited by Reuters, adding that the US is concerned over China’s recent destabilising actions in the South China Sea.
The EU still lacks “very clear evidence” of unfair practices to launch a formal probe into China’s wind power industry, according to Reuters sources.
US Event Calendar
09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 49.9, prior 50.1
09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.5, prior 49.8
09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 50.0, prior 50.2
10:00: Oct. Richmond Fed Index, est. 3, prior 5
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Back from Center Parcs via our now seemingly annual trip to the drive through safari where amongst other things monkeys climb over our car looking for nuts and ripping off the rubber lining from our roof rack. The kids are off to football and swimming camp today while I go back to “trying to explain and predict wild bond market swings” camp in London.
Indeed, while it was very difficult to pinpoint the exact reasons curves steepened so much last week, even if you were sympathetic to the move, yesterday it was even harder to explain the intra-day Treasury price action asboth 10 and 30yr yields traded in a near 20bps range after the former crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 in the London morning before closing at 4.85%. Both Treasuries and the S&P 500 sold off notably at their respective opens, before reversing these losses even if the equity gains weren’t held taking the S&P (-0.17% at the close) to the lowest level since May and declining for five days in a row for the first time this year.
The main talking points of note were the further delays in Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza, market veteran Bill Ackman revealing he closed a publicly vocal short in US Treasuries that he announced in August, and PIMCO co-founder and fellow veteran Bill Gross writing that he was buying SOFR futures as he said recent data points to a significant slowdown. So, as we hit 5% the famous and not so famous buyers seemed to come out of the woodwork. Looking forward, watch out for Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after the bell today as these alone account for around 10% of the S&P 500. Earlier in the day the flash PMIs will be out with most attention on Europe and the manufacturing sector to see if there is any rebound.
So the main story over the last 24 hours has been US Treasuries. Having peaked at 5.02% just before London lunch, 10yr US yields closed -6.4bps lower on the day at 4.85%. 30yr yields fell -7.6bps to 4.9995%, having been +10.1bps higher at 5.17% earlier while 2yr yields rallied -8.4bps off the intra-day highs to close down -2.6bps at 5.07%. Resultingly, the 2s30s and 2s10s curves flattened -5.2bps and -4.0bps respectively after the huge steepening last week.
European yields were far less volatile but mapped the same course, as 10yr Bund yields declined -1.5bps, whilst 2yr yields gained +1.2bps. 10yr BTPs outperformed (-8.5bps) as S&P affirmed Italy ratings late on Friday. Today, we will have the release of the latest quarterly ECB bank lending survey, which will add further colour to the direction of future ECB policy. Recent quarterly reports have suggested very tight lending standards, but with the future expectations series looking more optimistic. We will see if that holds true. See our Europe economists’ recent note on the theme for more (link).
Over in equity markets, the S&P 500 index initially dropped -0.83% at the open but bounced after the US fixed income rally intensified. Indeed, the index broke below the 4,200 level in the first hour of intraday trading, a 50% retracement of its gains since the mid-March regional banking turmoil and its lowest level since June. Eventually the index closed at 4,217 or -0.17% lower on the day. The index was as much as +0.75% better by midday in NY but could not hold on to those gains through the afternoon.
Energy proved the weakest link on a sector-by-sector level, falling -1.62% off the back of retreating oil prices, followed by materials (-1.07%) and financials (-0.86%). Energy also seemed to sag as there was further M&A announced in the space, which weighed on the largest constituents. Chevron proposed a $53bn takeover of Hess Corp, which follows shortly after Exxon Mobil earlier this month acquired Pioneer Natural Resources. This comes despite the global push toward renewable energy as energy companies have largely deleveraged this cycle and as oil prices have continued to look buoyant.
Elsewhere, the FANG+ Index of megacap stocks wavered between gains and losses, dropping around -1.0% at the open before closing the day up +1.14%. Tesla successfully broke its three-day streak of consecutive losses, by finishing just better than unchanged (+0.04%) on the day. In line with the strong performance of the tech giants, the NASDAQ rose +0.27%. Over in European equities , the tough early session backdrop weighed on the STOXX 600’s performance before the later US rally. The index retreated -0.13%, driven by basic resources (-1.07%), telecoms (-0.95%) and energy (-0.78%).
Turning to recent developments in the Middle East, Israel has held off its anticipated ground invasion as efforts to free Hamas’ hostages continue, alongside reports Israel was reassessing the scope of its incursion. Although Israeli forces continued airstrikes and raids on Gaza on Monday, the delay of the broader invasion was read positively by the market. Accordingly, concerns about oil supply eased, and WTI crude subsequently slipped -2.97% to $86.11/bbl, and Brent by -2.53% to $89.83/bbl. The gold safe-haven play lost its sheen after spot prices fell by -0.43% to $1,973/ounce. The ratio of copper to gold, which is historically a good barometer of global growth, bounced off its lowest reading since November 2020 after having moved sharply lower since the start of the month.
Overnight in Asia, S&P and Nasdaq are up +0.25% and +0.34% respectively with other regional bourses off their session lows but bouncing back as the session nears the close. This still leaves the MSCI Asia benchmark gauge down -0.78% as I type, on track for its lowest level since last November. Kicking off the global flash PMIs, the preliminary October result for Japan recorded a decline from 52.1 to 49.9, putting it into contractionary territory. This was largely driven by a fall in the services sector, which fell from 53.8 last month, to 51.1. Off the back of this, the Nikkei 225 traded down -0.55%. Elsewhere in Asia, the Hang Seng has slipped -0.79%, and the Kospi -0.29%. Chinese equities have outperformed, with the Shanghai Comp in the green at +0.28%, whilst the CSI 300 is modestly down at -0.08%.
In Asian fixed income, the Bank of Japan announced another unscheduled bond purchasing operation to limit rising yields. This is the fifth such an operation since the central bank adjusted the yield curve control program back in July, as the global rout in sovereign debt puts upward pressure on yields. 10yr yields now trade at 0.86%, down from 0.88% in the previous session, but remain around decade highs. US Treasuries are surprisingly quiet after yesterday’s rollercoaster with 10yr yields -0.8bps but with 2yrs +1.7bps higher.
In other news from yesterday, we had the release of the US Chicago Fed national activity index, which came in above expectations at 0.02 (vs -0.14 expected), up from -0.22, yet another indicator pointing to the better-than-expected strength of the US economy. Europe consumer confidence was largely unchanged in October, as the preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence survey for October came in above expectations at -17.9 (vs -18.2 expected), a modest fall from September’s result of -17.8.
Now turning to the day ahead. In terms of data, we have the global flash PMIs for October in the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, and the Eurozone. In the US, we also have the October Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, and the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity. In the UK, we have the September jobless claims change results and the August unemployment rate, as well as the German November GfK consumer confidence, and the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey. Finally, we have earnings releases from both Microsoft and Alphabet, as well as Visa, Coca-Cola, Danaher, Texas Instruments, Verizon, General Electric, NextEra Energy, Fiserv, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, and Dow Inc.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities firmer despite soft-PMIs, DXY bid but USTs contained; MSFT & GOOG due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 06:32 AM
European bourses & US futures reside in the green despite initial PMI-pressure, focus turns to US mega-caps
DXY in the green and aided by EUR downside to the modest detriment of peers though AUD outperforms post-Bullock
EGBs bolstered by the PMIs with yields pressured as such while USTs remain more contained pre-data/supply
Two-way commodity action on data and subsequent geopolitical/macro updates, crude currently in the green
Israel reportedly willing to delay its Gaza ground invasion by a few days for hostage talks, via Axios
Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, NBH Policy Announcement, supply from the US. Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Coca-Cola, Texas Instruments, Verizon
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses were initially pressured from soft PMIs and as EZ credit standards continued to tighten. Since then, the space has recovered back into the green as newsflow slows somewhat but has featured favourable updates that Israel is willing to delay its Gaza ground invasion by a few days, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%.
Within Europe, sectors are being dictated by earnings with Basic Resources outperforming after favourable reports from sector heavyweights while Banking names lag post-Barclays.
US futures have been directionally in-fitting but with magnitudes slightly more contained than those in Europe, ES +0.4% and above 4250; NQ +0.7% continues to outperform ahead of numerous mega-cap corporate updates incl. Microsoft & Alphabet.
Aussie and Euro flank G10 ranks as AUD/USD rebounds through 0.6350 with incentive from hawkish RBA rhetoric, but EUR/USD loses 1.0650+ status after disappointing EZ PMIs.
DXY regains poise between 105.350-780 parameters as US Treasuries top out pre-PMIs and 2 year supply.
Yen pivots 149.50 vs Dollar amidst more BoJ source reports touting the potential for YCC tweak.
Sterling straddles 1.2250 in wake of roughly in line UK PMIs and dip in ILO jobless rate.
RBA’s Bullock says the Board will not hesitate to raise the cash rate further if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation. It is possible that the inflation goal can be achieved with the cash rate at its current level but there are risks that could see inflation return to target more slowly than currently forecast.
Bonds extend bull-flattening correction before petering out.
Bunds reach 129.12 from 128.22, Gilts climb from 92.71 to 93.34 and T-note fades at 106-22 compared to 106-08+ overnight low ahead of US PMIs and 2 year note auction.
Commodities have experienced some modest divergence with crude benchmarks initially firmer but slipping in the wake of another batch of soft PMIs from the EZ; price action which was exacerbated by PMI-induced EUR pressure and associated USD strength as a result, pushing the contracts to eventual session lows of USD 85.09/bbl and USD 89.46/bbl for WTI & Brent Dec’23 respectively.
Thereafter, the crude complex has moved back marginally into the green amid reports around China’s Xi and details within the latest Axios piece.
Spot gold has dipped marginally into the red amid the EUR-driven bout of USD strength. Though, the yellow metal remains comfortably above technical figures with the 10-DMA closest at USD 1935/oz compared to the current USD 1965/oz session trough which itself is just USD 1 above Monday’s base.
Base metals are similarly supported after Monday’s marked pressure and perhaps deriving support from the Chinese-driven APAC session, the mentioned PBoC/Xi visit and numerous well-received European earnings in the space.
German Economy Minister has promised industry EUR 50bln in tax relief over the coming four years, according to Handelsblatt. Additionally, Habeck is reportedly planning industrial policy which is geared towards state support and is looking to loosen the debt brake to attain this, via Welt & Suddeutsche Zeitung.
REUTERS POLL: BoE to hold the Bank Rate at 5.25% on Nov 2nd, according to 61 out of 73 economists; 12 expect 25bps rise to 5.50%; first BoE rate cut to 5.0% to come in Q3 2023 (unch. from Sept poll).
EUROPEAN DATA
German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Nov) -28.1 vs. Exp. -26.6 (Prev. -26.5, Rev. -26.7)
UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Aug) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%); Employment Change (Aug): -82k vs Exp. -198k (prev. -207k)
EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Oct) 46.5 vs. Exp. 47.4 (Prev. 47.2); “We wouldn’t be caught off guard to see a mild recession in the Eurozone in the second half of this year with two back-to-back quarters of negative growth.”
EU HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Oct) 43.0 vs. Exp. 43.7 (Prev. 43.4); Services Flash PMI (Oct) 47.8 vs. Exp. 48.7 (Prev. 48.7)
German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Oct) 45.8 vs. Exp. 46.7 (Prev. 46.4); ” If these nowcasts hit the mark, this would result in a -0.8 percent overall growth rate for 2023.”
German HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Oct) 40.7 vs. Exp. 40.0 (Prev. 39.6); Services Flash PMI (Oct) 48.0 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.3)
UK Flash Composite PMI (Oct) 48.6 vs. Exp. 48.7 (Prev. 48.5); “The overall pace of decline remains only modest, signalling a mere 0.1% quarterly rate of GDP decline, but gloom about the outlook has intensified in the uncertain economic climate”.
UK Flash Services PMI (Oct) 49.2 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 49.3); Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 45.2 vs. Exp. 44.7 (Prev. 44.3)
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US House Democrats tell Punchbowl they find Tom Emmer the least objectionable GOP speaker candidate.
GEOPOLITICS
ISRAEL-HAMAS
Israel confirmed two hostages released by Hamas were handed over to the Israeli military, according to a statement.
US President Biden, when asked about a ceasefire, said we should have hostages released, according to Reuters.
IDF said it has “attacked several Hezbollah targets, including a surveillance and monitoring post in southern Lebanon”, according to Al Arabiya.
“Israeli occupation forces storm the village of Burqa, north of Nablus in the West Bank, amid gunfire”, according to Al Jazeera.
US official said Iran is seeking to escalate the conflict in the region, according to Bloomberg, adding Iranian fingerprints are all over the uptick in attacks while adding US presence in the Middle East includes intel sharing.
Russian Foreign Minister says “US reinforcements in the Middle East threaten to escalate tensions, according to Al Arabiya.
China’s Foreign Minister had a call with the Israeli Foreign Minister on Monday, according to Chinese state media.
US President Biden spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu on Monday and discussed the war in Gaza, according to Axios citing a White House official.
Israel is willing to delay its ground invasion of Gaza by a few days to allow for talks on releasing a large number of hostages that Hamas is holding, via Axios citing officials. Though, officials add that even if a hostage deal is attained they will not drop plans for a ground assault into Gaza.
OTHERS
Russian President Vladimir Putin suffered a cardiac arrest in the presidential bedroom on Sunday, an insider group revealed; he regained consciousness, according to Sky News Australia citing unverified Telegram reports. Subsequently, Russian Kremlin says President Putin is fine, reports of ill-health are fake. Adds, talks of a Putin body double is an absurd hoax.
“Iran-backed militants have launched a drone attack against the al-Omar oil field, which hosts the largest US base in Syria, causing two explosions in the area”, according to Iran International citing Syrian press.
US Navy announces interception of missiles and drones launched by the Houthis across the Red Sea days ago”, according to Al Arabiya.
US Secretary of State Blinken is to host China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Washington between Oct 26-28th, according to a senior admin official cited by Reuters, adding that the US is concerned over China’s recent destabilising actions in the South China Sea.
The EU still lacks “very clear evidence” of unfair practices to launch a formal probe into China’s wind power industry, according to Reuters sources.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin continues to climb and posts gains of almost 10%, though it has backed away marginally from the USD 35k handle and its USD 35.187k session peak; action which has been attributed to ETF optimism.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed following a similar lead from Wall Street with Mainland China leading the gains overnight.
ASX 200 traded in the green with the upside led by Metals & Mining following the prior session’s gains in the complex, although gold names lag after the precious metal unwound some geopolitical risk premium after the weekend.
Nikkei 225 gave up the 31k level in early trade as the prior day’s firming of the JPY weighed on the export-heavy index.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened mixed with the former playing catch-up following its long weekend, whilst the latter gained as reports also suggested US and China held the first working group meeting.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
The US Treasury Department said the US and China held the first meeting of the economic working group which serves as a channel to discuss bilateral economic policies, according to Reuters.
Former Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has retained his position as office director for a key economic policymaking body headed by Chinese President Xi, according to SCMP sources.
Japan aims to set shared standards with the US and Europe on subsidies for EVs, chips and other “critical fields”, according to Nikkei citing the Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Japan will extend until Spring 2024 subsidies to curb utility bills and will extend until April 2024 subsidies to curb fuel prices, according to a draft economic package cited by Reuters.
BoJ unscheduled bond purchases: offered to buy JPY 100bln in 10-25yr JGBs and JPY 300bln in 5-10yr, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 593bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 522bln net daily injection.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1786 vs exp. 7.2992 (prev. 7.1792).
BoJ is said to see little need to change forward guidance, according to Bloomberg citing officials; adds is considering whether to tweak YCC given US yield concerns. Discussion over YCC is reportedly not due to the growing risk of upward price fluctuations but the impact on Japanese yields from the upside in US rates. Officials see there being little need to remove the following line from its guidance “If necessary, we will not hesitate to take additional monetary easing measures.”
Chinese President Xi has made an unprecedented visit to the PBoC in a “sign of focus on the economy”, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
South Korean PPI Growth YY (Sep) 1.3% (Prev. 1.0%); MM (Sep) 0.4% (Prev. 0.9%)
Australian Manufacturing PMI (Oct P) 48.0 (Prev. 48.7)
Japanese JibunBK Composite PMI Flash (Oct) 49.9 (Prelim. 52.1)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.95 PTS OR 0.78% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 180.60 PTS OR 1.05% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 62.80 PTS OR 0.20% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.22 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.3100 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.3188 /Oil DOWN TO 85.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 90.04/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
end
3 CHINA
CHINA
Xi makes an unprecedented visit to the Central Bank of China as their property sector implodes. It basically represents 70 to 80% of their economy
(zerohedge)
Xi Makes Unprecedented PBOC Visit Amid Property Sector Turmoil
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 07:45 AM
China’s continuing economic slowdown and turbulence in property markets have the potential to spark damaging reverberations across the global economy. In an attempt to shore up the economy and financial markets, President Xi Jinping visited the nation’s central bank for the first known time, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.
Xi, Vice Premier He Lifeng, and other top officials visited the People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Tuesday afternoon, the people said, adding that Lifeng also visited the nation’s sovereign wealth fund.
The details of the visit were not clear but might indicate to investors potential policy signals and a centralized and unified leadership over the financial industry. Public record visits show this is the first time the most powerful Chinese leader has appeared at the PBOC since Mao Zedong.
The visit comes as policymakers have been trying to put out the flames in the collapsing property market while unleashing stock market interventions, liquidity injections by the PBOC, and curbs on short selling to shore up the financial sector. Bloomberg noted the visit might “help ease concerns among some investors that the president had been neglecting the economy amid a purge of senior ministers and a volatile relationship with the US.”
One person explained Xi’s visit to the foreign exchange regulator is to better understand the country’s $3 trillion reserves. And it comes one week before top leaders discuss financial policy and medium-term priorities in a closed-door economic policy meeting.
Bloomberg’s Chang Shu and David Qu noted that China’s recovery could be gaining traction, supported by stronger public investment and monetary easing.
…and overall, China data has surprised more to the upside in recent months (admittedly against very weak expectations)…
However, China’s Credit Impulse remains negative.
And China’s Property Stock gauge plunged to its lowest since 2009…
Xi’s visit hints that the PBOC might pull out the monetary stimulus cannon, which as refrained from using, as well as aggressive direct market interventions.
END
CHINA
WHAT IS UP HERE? SECOND TOP OFFICIAL TO LEAVE IN 3 MONTHS?
(zerohedge)
Xi Fires Defense Minister – Second Top Official To Leave In 3 Months With No Explanation
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 12:25 PM
In another mysterious major shake-up at the highest defense and political levels under Xi Jinping, China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu has been fired Tuesday, making him the second high-profile official to be sacked without any official reason offered.
It follows the surprise ouster of Foreign Minister Qin Gang in July, which was also met with intense speculation and rumors of a broader political crackdown toward ensuring total pro-Xi loyalty. In the case of now former defense chief Li Shangfu, he hadn’t been seen public since late August, after only being appointed to the post the prior March.
His removal has already been approved by the rubber-stamp legislature, the National People’s Congress, state media has confirmed. This further means Li is no longer a member of the powerful Central Military Commission. He has been under US sanctions, which Beijing had long protested and bristled at.
The NY Times has emphasized this adds to the growing rumors that this is all part of an anti-corruption crackdown, also part of stricter controls on national security, and that Li could possibly be facing formal charges:
Just four months ago, China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, was at a forum for regional officials in Singapore, serving as the face of his country’s bold vision for reshaping Asia’s balance of power. He cast China as a force for stability and accused the United States of stirring trouble in the region, suggesting that its leaders should “mind your own business.”
Now, General Li has been dismissed after nearly two months out of public view — the latest example of the capriciousness of high-level politics in China under Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader.
The report says the question is open whether or not he’s being investigated for any criminal offenses.
Additionally, NYT notes that “The removal of the defense minister also followed an abrupt shake-up in August in the leadership of China’s nuclear force, the highest-level upheaval in China’s military in recent years.”
As for the fired foreign minister Qin Gang, Western press has dubbed Qin the former “high-flying favorite” of President Xi Jinping, given he had played point man for the early in the summer important visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which was an attempt to rescue spiraling US-China relations. Qin has actually been further demoted as of this week:
CHINA REMOVES QIN GANG FROM POST OF STATE COUNCILOR – STATE MEDIA
Like the now removed defense minister, Qin’s rise had been rapid and brief. FT had pointed out in July that “Qin had a meteoric rise from his appointment as Chinese ambassador to the US in 2021 to foreign minister and a member of China’s cabinet, the State Council, in March”—but soon after “disappeared” from public view.
One question remains: is there a greater shake-up underway? It seems so, given the emerging pattern of rapid turnover in China’s most powerful and influential positions under Xi. Who is he coming for next?
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
UK economy remains British citizens biggest concern and strangely (??) not global warming
(zerohedge)
The Economy Remains Brits’ Biggest Concern (Not Global Warming)
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 05:45 AM
The state of the economy continues to weigh on Brits’ minds and is perceived by many as one of the most pressing issues facing the United Kingdom today.
that This is according to a rolling YouGov survey, which has been tracking sentiments of people living in the country around major issues since 2011.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, 54 percent of UK respondents said that the economy was among the three most pressing issues facing the country in October 2023.
This may come as no surprise, as the cost of living crisis, driven up by inflation, continues to be felt nationwide.
The second most commonly cited issue was health, with 44 percent of respondents saying it is a major concern.
Health has ranked as one of the chief issues in the country since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. While the peak of the pandemic has passed, the state of healthcare in the country continues to struggle as the already overburdened NHS has been pushed deep into crisis, with severe staffing shortages and major delays for services and treatments.
The German government is considering whether to extend the period in which old coal-fired power plants would be asked to remain on standby for emergency backup beyond the currently planned deadline in the spring of 2024, German business daily Handelsblatt reported this weekend, citing a spokeswoman for the economy ministry.
Without Russian gas, last year’s energy and gas crisis in Germany, and in Europe, has been keeping utilities and governments on edge and ready to have mothballed coal-fired power plants on stand-by in the coldest winter days to ensure the security of electricity supply.
Earlier this month, Germany’s government said it was bringing back online several coal-fired units for this winter in an attempt to save natural gas and avoid power supply shortfalls.
Several coal-fired blocks operated by RWE and LEAG at their Niederaußem, Neurath, and Jaenschwalde power plants will be temporarily reactivated until March 2024 as a precautionary measure to safeguard electricity supply in the coming winter, the Economy and Climate Action Ministry said, referring to a government decision to bring the coal-fired units online again.
Those coal units were already operational during the 2022/2023 winter when Germany was shocked into a severely reduced gas supply with the end of Russian pipeline deliveries. The backup coal capacity was put on stand-by this summer until the government now decided to reactivate them for the coming winter.
Now the German government is considering extending the stand-by period beyond the spring of 2024 to prevent energy shortages, according to Handelsblatt’s source.
The government needs to take a decision soon because utilities need to make preparations for potentially running coal-fired plants longer than planned, including preparations in procuring coal and planning for stable energy systems, a spokesperson for Uniper told Handelsblatt.
As of this month, 11 coal-fired power plants with a total capacity of 6.2 gigawatts (GW) have been supplying additional electricity to the German grid.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/GAZA/RUSSIA/USA
Russia accuses the uSA of escalation as they buld up their middle east force
(zerohedge)
Russia Accuses US Of Stoking “Escalation” By Mideast Force Build-Up As Pentagon Blames Iran
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 06:45 PM
Update(1845ET): Russia has weighed in strongly against the additional US warships recently sent by the Pentagon to the Middle East region, saying this heightened US presence only serves as a risk of “escalation” of the conflict in Gaza.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday during a meeting in Tehran that “the more a state takes this kind of proactive measures, the greater the risk and the danger of an escalation of the conflict”. He called out Washington as “already among the countries intervening the most” since the October 7 Hamas terror attack.
The same day, the Pentagon said it believes Iran-backed groups in the region are planning to ramp up attacks on US forces in the region. This came amid continuing sporadic drone and missile strikes against US bases in Syria and Iraq. According to a fresh CNN report:
There are “red lights flashing everywhere,” a US official in the region told CNN.
Officials said that at this point, Iran appears to be encouraging the groups rather than explicitly directing them. One official said Iran is providing guidance to the militia groups that they will not be punished – by not getting resupplied with weaponry, for example – if they continue to attack US or Israeli targets.
On Monday, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said there is “a very direct connection between these groups” and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and he said the US is “deeply concerned about the potential of any significant escalation of these attacks in the days ahead.”
Kirby added in his comments, “Iran’s goal is to maintain some plausible deniability here, but we are not going to allow them to do that.”
Meanwhile, yet more confusing statement and mixed signals from the US Commander-in-Chief at these crucial and dangerous moments…
And there was this strange moment during a press briefing Monday:
China also weighed in Monday, offering that it is willing to “do anything” to restore peace, but emphasized that “prospects are worrying” – according to China’s Middle East special envoy Zhai Jun.
Below: Hamas released video of the two elderly women released from captivity today. The Israeli government has confirmed the handover, and they are now undergoing evaluation in a Tel Aviv hospital:
* * *
Update(0350ET): Hamas has announced the release of two more hostages, bringing the total numbered free since they were kidnapped Oct.7 to four. Al Jazeera is reporting, “The latest release of two Israeli captives from Gaza – both women – follows the release late last week of two US citizens.”
The newly freed women have been identified as 79-year old Nurit Cooper and 85-year old Yocheved Lifshitz.
Hamas has reportedly demanded fuel in release for more hostages, given electricity has been out across the strip, and fuel is needed to generate power locally. Israel has reportedly countered that all hostages must be freed for deliveries to be allowed into Gaza. This has predictably led to a breakdown in negotiations, which have been mediated by Qatar:
END
Controversy Erupts After Freed Israeli Hostage Blasts Army’s ‘Lack Of Preparedness’
Israeli officials are reportedly unhappy with an interview given by an elderly former captive of Hamas in Gaza because she had not been well prepared for the statement.
In a press meeting on Tuesday, 85-year-old Yocheved Lifshitz, an Israeli captive released from Gaza on Monday evening, said she was beaten on 7 October, the day Palestinian fighters stormed southern Israel, but later treated “gently”.
Sources told Israel’s state-owned Kan News that the interview was a “mistake”, adding that a “preliminary meeting” may not have been held with Lifshitz prior to her press statement and that if one had been held, not “all questions” to do with the preparation were asked.
Lifshitz is one of four Israelis who have been released after Hamas-led Palestinian fighters stormed Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip in an attack that killed around 1,400 Israelis, mostly civilians. Israel believes 220 captives are being held in Gaza.
The former Israeli hostage was one of the oldest held by Hamas in Gaza, and spent more than two weeks in captivity. She was released alongside another captive, 79-year-old Nurit Yitzhak.
Lifshitz told reporters: “I’ve been through hell, I never thought that I would reach such a state. They [Palestinian fighters] went berserk in our kibbutz [and] put me on a motorcycle.”
She went on to describe how children and the elderly were among those taken, calling the scenes “extremely painful”. Lifshitz added that she was hit by a stick en route to Gaza and made to walk several kilometers after reaching the area.
‘Needs met’
According to the former hostage, a medic and later a doctor visited her while she was held by Hamas, to check on her condition. “They took care of every detail,” she said.
Lifshitz said her captors “took care” of her needs. “They ensured that they eat the same food as we eat, white cheese and cucumbers,” she added.
Retelling her mother’s story, Lifshitz’ daughter Sharone said: “When she first arrived, they [fighters] told them that they are Muslims and they won’t hurt them.” When Lifshitz was asked why she shook hands with the Hamas fighter before her release, she replied: “They were gentle with us, our needs were supplied.”
During the press statement, Lifshitz also condemned the Israeli army’s lack of preparedness for the attack on 7 October, saying that “two billion” shekels had been spent on security systems that did not work.
She also attacked the government for its failures in the lead-up to the attack. “We were the government’s scapegoat, we were abandoned. We went through hell,” she said.
Family members had earlier told media outlets that the grandmother had previously worked to get medical aid to Palestinians in Gaza. Oded Lifshitz, Yocheved’s husband, is still missing and presumed to be held by Palestinian armed groups in Gaza, although his whereabouts or condition are not known.
Israel says that Hamas holds 220 of its citizens as prisoners, some of whom hold citizenship of different countries, but that number may in fact be higher, as dozens of people are still missing.
Hamas says 22 captives have been killed in Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, which has killed at least 5,000 Palestinians, the vast majority of whom are civilians.
In an interview with Sky News broadcast on Tuesday, senior Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal said the group would release all of its hostages in exchange for an end to the bombardment of Gaza.
end
This is a must read
(Conrad Black…./New York Sun)
A Great Opportunity Beckons for Israel To Deal a Mortal Blow to Its Deadliest Enemies
Almost all polls indicate majority support for Israel in the advanced Western countries in Europe, North America, Australasia, and the Far East.
By Conrad Black The New York Sun Tuesday, October 24, 2023
It is my pleasure to dissent, cautiously and soberly but with some insistence, on the pessimistic utterances that resound with increasing frequency and volume over conditions in the Middle East. The anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian demonstrations are to some extent increasing throughout the advanced world.
Yet since no civilized person could possibly justify the atrocities committed by Hamas and undisputed by them, the reason for the increasing demonstrations is the phenomenon that since Palestinian atrocities will not alter or dilute the support given by overseas Palestinian sympathizers to the Palestinian entitlement to the land of Israel, they have no alternative than to intensify the demonstrations to demonstrate that even the crimes of Hamas do not change the loyalties and ambitions of Palestinian militants.
Most of these demonstrations are peaceful and even at London on Saturday there were 100,000 such demonstrators, but none explicitly supported Hamas, which would be an offense in the United Kingdom because Hamas is officially designated a terrorist organization. Nor is there any evidence that these demonstrators are an unusually heavy turnout of the usual supporters of the Palestinian and anti-Israeli cause.
Almost all polls indicate majority support for Israel in the advanced Western countries in Europe, North America, Australasia, and the Far East. For the committed pro-Palestinians, the greater the Palestinian outrages, the greater the need to show continuing support.
As Israel now has, with 360,000 reservists, approximately 500,000 trigger-pullers, well-trained and well-armed, the correlation of forces is overwhelmingly with Israel as Hamas and Hezbollah together have only a quarter of the total and minimal heavy vehicles and artillery. They have an enormous number of rockets but very few mobile launchers and Israel will be able to decimate the launch-sites of the longer-range missiles very quickly.
None of Israel’s potential adversaries, including Iran, has a substantial air force, and Iran knows that provocations beyond a certain point will leave it extremely vulnerable to aerial attack, including its nuclear military program that the Obama and Biden administrations have facilitated, almost, but not quite, to completion and long-range launch capability.
In delaying a ground attack upon Gaza for two weeks, Israel has not only mustered its forces and brought whatever contingency plans it had up to a current state of precision. Its forces are well-fed and rested, while Hamas must by now be on short rations and will have had a nerve-racking fortnight since their foray into Israel.
Apparently, about 700,000 of the 1 million persons in the northern part of Gaza have followed Israeli warnings to evacuate to the south, despite Hamas attempting to impede them so as not to lose the population they ostensibly serve as human shields against Israeli retribution. The majority of Hamas’ tunnels are in the north and this flight of population will facilitate the destruction of the tunnels, which will entail use of flame-throwers and various gasses as well as flooding and high explosives and even perhaps the Egyptian technique of pumping raw sewage into the Hamas tunnels.
When northern Gaza has been adequately purged of Hamas storage facilities, staging areas, and identifiable personnel, it will then be possible to usher the civil population back from the south to the north and essentially replicate the same process in the South.
Obviously not all of the Hamas paramilitary personnel will be killed or captured, though any individuals who actively resist Israeli forces will be assumed to be members of Hamas and killed or captured and detained indefinitely. Those that remain will have lost their weapons and ammunition and anything remotely useful to armed combat. At that point it would be appropriate to consider matters of governance.
The restoration of a United Nations mandate might be acceptable on a solemn attestation of maintaining Gaza as a weapon-free zone other than police-level arms in the hands of the patrolling powers. These powers would have to include the United States as well as acceptable Arab contingents, which would include Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Jordan.
In addition, all access points into and out of Gaza would have to be monitored by the Israelis. Under these conditions it would be possible to revive international assistance to Gaza whose application would be carefully monitored by the occupying forces to ensure the avoidance of the inexcusable betrayal of recent years in which Western humanitarian assistance was redeployed to acquire weapons, build fortifications, and pay for underground invasion routes into Israel.
There will certainly be significant Israeli casualties in this operation, but as in the dire predictions that preceded both wars in Iraq, these estimates are probably wildly exaggerated. It will not be room-to-room, house-to-house fighting, a reenactment of the Battle of Stalingrad in the tropics. If there is resistance in any building the building will be blown up.
The casualties may be heavy among the hostages, which is another reason for Israel sagely to allow some time for efforts to extract the hostages before the heavy combat begins. But Israel is not seeking permanent occupation of Gaza and it has no particular aversion, as it has demonstrated again these last two weeks, in leveling buildings where hostile elements are suspected to be within.
Construction techniques in Gaza have a minimum of structural steel and the Israeli Air Force has demonstrated again in recent days how comparatively easy it is to reduce those buildings to rubble instantly with minimal collateral damage.
Presumably, these past two weeks have also enabled Israeli intelligence to get a relatively clear picture of where its most desirable targets are; in that sense, the old military adage that time spent in reconnaissance is seldom wasted will prove true.
As each day passes, Israel becomes stronger and Hamas becomes weaker. The attacks of October 7 were a sign of weakness, not strength, apparently generated by Iranian fear of a comprehensive agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The time since then has been a further demonstration of Israeli strength, which is intensifying while Hamas tries desperately to hide among the civilian population, and is endlessly harassed and enfeebled from the air and otherwise.
The conventional wisdom is that there can be no consideration of a two-state solution because Israel could not possibly now accept as an intimate neighbor the state that committed these recent infamies. The Palestinians have repeatedly been offered independence — the West Bank and Gaza, for many years. Yet they will not accept Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state.
Their only interest in a two-state solution was to give themselves a stronger platform from which to conquer Israel and kill or expel all of the Jews. The comprehensive destruction of Hamas may resuscitate the corrupt and discredited Palestine Liberation Organization as the principal voice of the Palestinians.
The more severe and terminal the punishment of Hamas, the greater the possibility that the Palestinians will finally accept half a loaf, which was the maximum they could have expected after Britain promised the territory simultaneously to the Jews and the Arabs more than a century ago.
This remains a great opportunity for Israel to deal a mortal blow to its deadliest enemies while rubbing the noses of the Iranian ayatollahs, not just in their barbarism and hypocrisy, but in the impotence of their attempt to inflict their genocidal ambitions on the Jews.
-END-
Israel to consider civilians “terrorist accomplices” if they stay in the North
(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)
Israel To Consider Civilians ‘Terrorist Accomplices’ If They Stay In North Gaza
The Israeli military has told Palestinian civilians living in north Gaza that if they don’t evacuate to the south, they will be considered“an accomplice in a terrorist organization.”
The warning was made in threatening leaflets dropped by Israeli drones over the weekend. “Urgent warning, to residents of Gaza. Your presence north of Wadi Gaza puts your life in danger. Whoever chooses not to leave north Gaza to the south of Wadi Gaza might be identified as an accomplice in a terrorist organization,” the leaflets said, according to Reuters.
Israel previously ordered the evacuation of northern Gaza, an area that’s home to 1.1 million people. Since Gaza is under blockade, the only option for Palestinians in the north is to flee to the south, which is also under constant Israeli bombardment.
Some Gazans have fled to the south, while others have refused to leave their homes or have sought shelter at hospitals, hoping they will not be targeted in the Israeli onslaught, but Israel is ordering hospitals to be evacuated.
Since Israel has unleashed its bombing campaign on Gaza in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack, at least 4,651 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza [since revised to over 5,000], including 1,756 children, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. On the Israeli side, at least 1,405 people have been killed.
Gazans are also suffering from food and water shortages due to the Israeli siege. A limited number of aid trucks have been allowed to enter Gaza from Egypt, which included medical supplies but no fuel to power hospital generators.
Aid agencies have said the aid that has been let in is just a “drop in the ocean” for Gaza’s 2.3 million residents.
end
Robert H;
What happens with fools in charge of the parade
0/23/23 By WarNews 24/7 Translated from Greek
The latest report by the country’s services regarding Hezbollah’s arsenal brought bad news to Israel. In the event of a conflict between the IDF and the Lebanese organization, US involvement and, by extension, a major regional war must be considered more than a given. And that’s because the IDF may suddenly find itself fighting on five fronts once it has committed much of its forces to Gaza.
That is why last night, even though it was a Sunday, the US President Biden, hurriedly called and spoke with the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Sunak, the Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, the French President Macron, the German Chancellor Scholz and the Prime Minister of Italy, Meloni, on the situation in the Middle East.
Gathering all these leaders of NATO member countries in a group chat is just not good. They were briefed on the latest unpleasant developments and the impending generalization of the conflict. The US is increasingly mired in the Middle East crisis.
On the other hand, the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, is going to Iran, while China’s special envoy for the Middle East emphasized that ” the situation in Gaza is very serious, the risk of a large-scale land conflict is increasing. Armed conflicts along the Israel-Lebanese and Israel-Syria borders are also spreading with alarming prospect.”
Israeli shock report on Hezbollah According to recent Israeli estimates, Hezbollah has tens of thousands of long-range missiles that reach central Israel – and beyond that, an extensive array of attack drones, advanced anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, and a commando force whose targets include “occupation of Galilee”
“Hezbollah has more missiles in its hands than most governments in the world, and we are watching it very closely,” said the then US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, in a joint press conference with his colleague Ehud Barak.
The year was 2010 and since then Hezbollah has continued to grow stronger. The Lebanese group’s stockpile of missiles and various assets has been expanded and upgraded with the enthusiastic help of Iran and thanks to the experience it gained when it helped save Bashar Assad’s rule in the Syrian war.
According to the latest estimates, Hezbollah has about 150,000 missiles and rockets. The majority have a range of several tens of kilometers, but according to various reports, a significant percentage of them have a range of hundreds of kilometers.
Hezbollah is the world’s most heavily armed sub-state actor, with a large and diverse stockpile of “dumb” artillery missiles, including ballistic missiles, anti-aircraft (NAM), anti-tank (NT) and anti-ship missiles, the study completed in 2018 at the Center said Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington (CSIS), in a comprehensive report they compiled on the deadly arsenal located north of Israel.
In a conversation with the Israeli media, Haaretz, this week, one of the researchers, Sha’an Sheikh, warned that Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria “raises the fear that the organization has been equipped with standoff missiles that are more advanced and precision-guided missiles, whether they come from Syria, Iran or Russia.”
According to a recent publication by the National Security Research Institute, Hezbollah has about 40,000 short-range Grad missiles, about 80,000 Fajr 3 and 5, medium-range Hebar or Raad missiles, and about thirty thousand long-range Zilzal or Fatah 110 missiles. According to the report, Hezbollah also received a limited number of Scud C and D missiles from Syria.
“Several hundred Fatah 110 missiles, carrying around 500 kilograms of explosives, are equipped with precise GPS-based navigation mechanisms and have significant accuracy and destructive capabilities.”
The IDF and Defense Ministry estimate that in a future war with Hezbollah, the group could fire several thousand rockets in the first few days and continue to fire about 1,500 rockets a day at Israel throughout the fighting. In 2006, Hezbollah fired about 200 rockets every day.
In recent years, the agency has invested most of its energy in what has been dubbed the “Accuracy Project” — a concerted effort to add guidance systems to “dumb” missiles and transform them from a “statistical” weapon into one that can target and directly strike strategic targets such as headquarters, bases, power stations and concentrations of power.
Along with Hezbollah’s formidable artillery arsenal, the organization also has large stockpiles of anti-aircraft missiles, including MANPADS that are primarily suited to strikes against helicopters and aircraft.
Hezbollah also has much heavier anti-aircraft systems – which include radars and launchers – capable of hitting aerial targets at a range of 50 km and at an altitude of 24 km.
One of the heaviest blows suffered by the IDF in the Second Lebanon War came from Hezbollah’s extensive array of anti-tank missiles, particularly the Kornet missiles, among the most advanced ever developed by Russia.
Alongside Hezbollah’s massive missile arrays, for twenty years the organization has been developing its own drones, some Iranian and some locally made, capable of carrying weapons under the wings or being used as kamikaze drones with a heavy warhead.
The Alma Research Institute estimates that Hezbollah possesses a total of about 2,000 drones of various types, including civilian drones that have been converted to carry weapons.
The Radwan Force – Aim to take Galilee At the same time, Hezbollah maintains a commando unit – the “Radwan Force” – which will be the spearhead in the event of war with Israel, and may try to “conquer the Galilee”, in a plan similar to what the Hamas in the south two weeks ago.
The unit has about 2,500 people training in Lebanon and Iran, including parachute and boat training. Many of them gained experience in the war in Syria.
The soldiers of the Radwan force appear to be far more skilled than the average Hezbollah fighter, with training provided by the Saberein Commandos, a battalion of Iran’s Al Quds Force, a branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
In 2018, the IDF uncovered tunnels that cut through the fence and were supposed to allow the force to infiltrate unhindered and attack IDF settlements and outposts deep in the Galilee. October 7, 2023 proved once again that the tunnels are only one way out of many.
The map of Hezbollah missile ranges published by the Israelis
Blinken Warns UN Of “Decisive” Action If Iran Proxies Attack Americans; Carrier Strike Groups On Alert
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 03:50 PM
Update(1550ET): It’s never a good sign when the United States says it “doesn’t want war” – at a moment a long known geopolitical flashpoint region stands on the brink. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday delivered a stern warning to Iran before a UN Security council meeting, saying the US is prepared to respond “decisively” if Tehran or its proxies launch attacks on Americans in the Middle East.
Not only does the Pentagon still have thousands of troops and assets in Iraq, long under the domination of Shia paramilitary influence, but it has up to a thousand or so troops occupying broad oil and gas regions of eastern Syria. Missile and drone attacks on Pentagon outposts in Syria and Iraq have been rising in the last days. But the real concern is on Israel’s northern border, where Hezbollah has launched multiple guided missile and anti-tank attacks on Israel border posts, including on Tuesday.
“The United States does not seek conflict with Iran,” Blinken told the UNSC “We do not want this war to widen. But if Iran or its proxies attack US personnel anywhere, make no mistake: We will defend our people, we will defend our security, swiftly and decisively.” Russia’s President Putin, who since 2015 has stationed major assets in neighboring Syria, just the day prior blamed Washington for stoking “escalation” in the Middle East by moving two US carrier strike groups into the region.
There are building fears that Iran-backed Hezbollah would launch an all-out war on Israel if the IDF moves in full force into Gaza. The only thing which apparently has stalled these plans is the slow release (so far up to four hostages) of Israeli and American captives by Hamas. Domestic political pressure is also building against the Netanyahu government, led by families who see in Qatari mediated efforts hope that loved ones will be released. Hamas has demanded that fuel be transferred into Gaza via the Rafah border, but Israel has countered that all hostages must be freed first.
“We call on all member states to send a firm, united message to any state or non-state actor that is considering opening another front in this conflict against Israel or who may target Israel’s partners, including the United States: don’t. Don’t throw fuel on the fire,” Blinken said. But the historical pattern has been that when the US moves such huge naval power into the Mediterranean and Mideast waters, it plans to do something with it.
Jordan (and others), have at the same time warned the UN assembly that there’s “real danger” of a bigger war which draws in superpowers like Russia, or even potentially China, which also has interests and military assets in the region.
“We’re all doing everything we can to stop it. There’s the threat of this expanding into the West Bank, into Lebanon, into other fronts. None of us want that, we’re all working against that,” Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi told the UNSC.
* * *
French President Emmanuel Macron has traveled to Israel Tuesday, the latest Western leader to do so, where he’s meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top officials in what’s scheduled as a two-day trip. He’s met with families of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack as well.
He arrived in Tel Aviv just after Gaza’s health ministry announced that deaths from Israeli airstrikes have soared past 5,000 killed. Just in the last 24 hours, officials said that 704 Palestinians have been killed. Additionally the ministry has warned that hospitals and medical centers are shutting down at rapid pace, with lack of resources including fuel and electricity.
Macron, while meeting Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Tuesday, conveyed that the release of the over 220 hostages held in Gaza should be the “first objective” of Israel and its allies. Macron appears to be backing Biden’s appeal for Israel to stall the ground invasion in order to provide more time for negotiations. So far, four women have been released from Hamas captivity, including two Americans from Chicago.
But Macron has also made headlines in proposing that France help provide a military solution. He has offered that France’s counter-ISIS forces be utilized for anti-Hamas action. He said his country stands ready “to beef up what we are doing in the coalition against ISIS. We are available to include Hamas in the coalition against ISIS depending on what Israel will ask us to deliver.”
Macron said at a press conference alongside Netanyahu that terrorism is “our common enemy”. Referencing the Islamic State, he explained, “France is ready for the international coalition against Daesh in which we are taking part for operations in Iraq and Syria to also fight against Hamas.”
Shortly after Macron’s proposal grabbed international headlines, an Elysee Palace official clarified that “Not every country is fighting on the ground” and that “Much will depend on conversations we have with our allies.” The official stressed that Paris will still seek a “more crucial, more decisive peace process,” and added:
“If you want to fight effectively and if you want to have everyone with you, you have to offer a political perspective,” the official continues. “We need to know altogether why we are fighting.”
“The cause that Israel is fighting for is our cause as well.”
…France wants to “consolidate the perspective of a ceasefire. I know it is very delicate to discuss. But we need again to know where we are going to have the instruments available that can bring back peace and stability.”
Importantly he stressed that in Jerusalem, Macron asked PM Netanyahu for “clarity about the endgame, the modalities with which you operate, the conditions which you create, your political motivation.”
France had previously confirmed losing 30 of its nationals during the Oct.7 terror assault, nine of which are still missing – presumably in captivity in Gaza.
The question of “clarity” regarding Israel’s goals and strategy is also high on the US administration’s agenda. A Times of Israel report this week, commenting on what US officials told The NY Times, issued the following blunt words: “The Biden administration is reportedly concerned that Israel lacks achievable military goals for its operations in Gaza, leading US officials to believe that the IDF is not yet ready for a ground incursion.”
Macron’s visit, during which time he’s seeking “clarity” on objectives, will only heighten this pressure on Netanyahu to convey a clear plan and exit strategy. The fear also is that Israel’s military could get bogged down in a costly Gaza fight, leading to escalation and quagmire, including in the north with Hezbollah.
Shock video for Israel: Hamas armed with AT4, Javelin, NLAW through Ukraine – Washington Post: “Deadly surprise awaits IDF in Gaza” – WarNews247
Many a time i have written that Ukraine is a corrupt money laundry and not a nation worth supporting. And it is common knowledge that they have been selling western weapons for cash to anyone willing to pay. So why does it surprise anyone that the billions supplied for free at the expense of the American and European public sold for cash to fill grubby pockets finds it’s way to be used against the West when and where it suits them by those parties wanting to defend or attack? The same fools who were so eager to send arms to Ukraine to be sold on black gun running markets will now spend money to fight against this having their own citizens die for their stupidity. And you wonder why war is a racket?
‘An Admission of Epic Proportions’: Health Canada Confirms DNA Plasmid Contamination of COVID Vaccines • Children’s Health Defense
What have they done? And why are politicians so silent? And you wonder why Pfizer stock is headed for the toilet? Is this universal or just some or all Canadians ? No one can believe anything from politicians regarding vaccines!
Recent Study: Black and Green Tea Can Inactivate the COVID-19 Omicron Subvariants
Japanese researchers set out to explore various foods and ingredients that may inactivate the strain of SARS-CoV-2 responsible for COVID-19.
By Ellen Wan The Epoch Times, New York Sunday, October 22, 2023
As COVID-19 mutates over time, variants and sub-variants different from the original SARS-CoV-2 virus emerge. A recent study, conducted in Japan, found that green tea (Japanese sencha), matcha, and black tea can effectively inactivate certain Omicron subvariants. In addition, saliva produced after consuming candy containing green tea or black tea exhibited virus-inactivating properties in vitro, rendering the virus less contagious. The COVID-19 virus primarily spreads through the saliva of infected individuals, including asymptomatic carriers. Saliva containing the virus is released when talking, sneezing, or coughing, forming droplets and aerosols that disperse into the air.
Professor Osam Mazda and his research team at Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine in Japan believe that inactivating the virus in saliva is crucial for preventing COVID-19. Therefore, they explored various foods and ingredients that may inactivate the strain of SARS-CoV-2 responsible for COVID-19. A previous study they conducted found that polyphenols found in green tea or black tea reduced the infectivity of the virus in human saliva in vitro, demonstrating virus-inactivating properties. The polyphenols in tea can bind to the spike protein of the virus, preventing it from infecting cells.
The research team published their new study on Oct. 3 in Scientific Reports, indicating that green tea, matcha, and black tea rapidly and effectively inactivated some Omicron subvariants.
One of the experiments in the study involved seven healthy volunteers who consumed candies containing green tea, black tea, or no tea components, and their saliva subsequently collected. Researchers found that saliva collected immediately after consuming candies containing green or black tea had high concentrations of tea polyphenols, including epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG) and theaflavin digallate. When researchers mixed saliva samples with the early Omicron virus strain BA.1 for 10 seconds, they observed rapid inactivation of the virus by saliva containing tea polyphenols. However, the virus-inactivating effect gradually diminished between 5 and 15 minutes after the cessation of the candy.
The research team believes that if infected individuals consume candies containing green tea or black tea, it may be useful in inactivating the virus, decreasing the virus load in the oral and gastrointestinal tracts, and preventing the virus from spreading to nearby non-infected individuals.
Another experiment involved steeping black tea, green tea, or matcha in hot water and subsequently mixing the virus suspension with the tea beverages for 10 seconds, followed by assessing the virus’s virulence. The results revealed that the infectivity of the BA.1 and other Omicron subvariants decreased to less than one percent.
Not only does freshly brewed tea have virus-inactivating effects, but bottled green tea beverages purchased from grocery stores also significantly reduced the infectivity of Omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.5, and BQ.1.1, although they were not effective against BA.2.75.
The study also found that different Omicron subvariants have varying sensitivity to tea polyphenols. For instance, EGCG at a concentration of 1000 μM can inactivate more than 99 percent of the BA.1 and BA.5 viruses. However, the BA.2, BA.2.75, XBB.1, and BQ.1.1 viruses remained infectious at the same EGCG concentration.
Black tea, produced by oxidizing green tea leaves, exhibits a vibrant reddish-orange color due to the transformation of tea polyphenols into theaflavins in the tea leaves. The researchers treated various Omicron viruses with theaflavin concentrations similar to those found in black tea and observed a significant reduction in the virulence of BA.1, XE, BA.5, XBB.1, and BQ.1.1 viruses. However, the same theaflavin concentration had little effect on BA.2 and BA.2.75.
The research also found that the antiviral mechanism of EGCG is to render the virus inactive, and when used to treat cells, it does not induce anti-virus effects in the cells.
The research team had previously suggested that holding tea in the mouth for 10 seconds before swallowing it while dining in a restaurant could temporarily inactivate the virus in saliva, potentially reducing the risk of droplet transmission and group infections. However, the research team also pointed out that despite the high levels of catechins in tea leaves, it is challenging for them to enter the bloodstream and exert their effects throughout the entire body.
Catechins Inhibit Virus Replication
In addition to binding to the virus’s spike protein and rendering it non-infectious, previous research has revealed other antiviral properties of tea polyphenols. Researchers at National Taiwan Normal University discovered through animal studies that catechins can inhibit coronavirus replication, potentiate adaptive immunity, and improve acute lung injuries. Chiang-Ting Chien, the founding dean and a distinguished professor of the School of Life Science at National Taiwan Normal University, along with the research team, noted that when the catechins concentration reaches over 195 micrograms per milliliter, it can inhibit an enzyme associated with virus replication and infection. Data from human consumption of catechins also showed that immune-related CD8+ T cells can maintain peak levels for 4 to 5 hours. For an adult weighing 50 kilograms, daily intake of a total of 2.5 grams of the catechins, divided into 2 to 3 doses, can produce sufficient concentration in the bloodstream, potentially inhibiting coronavirus replication in the human body.
Mr. Chien also pointed out that while drinking green tea can provide catechin intake, the dosage might not be sufficient to inhibit the virus. Furthermore, the catechins used in the experiment were extracted using professional techniques and are caffeine-free, which are different from the catechins found in commercially available green tea.
Chih-Ching Yang, the lead author of the paper and the technical supervisor at Taiwan’s Ministry of Health and Welfare, stated that during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there have been many confirmed cases despite receiving two vaccine doses. They hope that consuming catechins can enhance immunity and resistance against the COVID-19 virus.
Additionally, EGCG exhibits inhibitory effects on various viruses. The British Journal of Pharmacology has compiled a list of viruses that EGCG can inhibit, including HIV, hepatitis B, and influenza viruses, among others.
Enhance Immunity With Tea Leaves Rich in Vitamins and Minerals
Sean Lin, an American virology expert and former director of the Virology Department at the U.S. Army Research Institute, mentioned on the Health 1+1 program that findings from in vitro experiments involving tea leaves may not necessarily reflect the actual effects of drinking tea. Nevertheless, tea leaves are rich in nutrients and offer substantial support for everyday health and immune enhancement.
Lin pointed out that tea leaves contain key immune-boosting nutrients. Vitamin A protects respiratory mucous membranes and prevents infections. Vitamin C stimulates the production of antibodies and immune cells. Vitamin D regulates proteins that combat pathogens and possesses anti-inflammatory properties. Vitamin E helps maintain cell membrane integrity. Iron supports the production of enzymes that enhance immune cells, while zinc plays a role in supporting the immune response. During a pandemic, supplementing these nutrients appropriately can enhance immune function.
Choosing Between Black Tea and Green Tea
Black tea and green tea contain different types of tea polyphenols, all of which possess antiviral properties. So which one should you opt for? Lin Gui, a traditional Chinese medicine practitioner from Taiwan, said in an article that according to traditional Chinese medicine, tea leaves are considered to have cooling properties. However, the tea-making process, which includes roasting and oxidation, can alter their nature. Green tea, having not undergone oxidation, tends to have a cooling nature, whereas black tea, having undergone oxidation, exhibits a warmer nature.
Ms. Lin explained that individuals with a “heaty” body constitution, such as those who often experience dry mouth, mouth bitterness, constipation, and are prone to acne, are well-suited for consuming green tea. Conversely, those with a cool body constitution, like those who frequently have cold extremities, are sensitive to cold winds, and experience loose stools, are better suited for drinking black tea. It is important to note that women should avoid excessive consumption of green tea during their menstrual period.
‘Only a few have had the chance to witness the extraordinary actions of the Caracal Battalion during their battle against Hamas terrorists.
Lt.-Col. Or Ben-Yehuda, the commander of this unit, now recounts her experiences in the southern Gaza Strip, where her battalion eliminated approximately 100 terrorists. She also has a clear message for those who question the capabilities of female fighters in the Caracal (Desert Lynx) and Tank Battalion.
As the assault on the Gaza border area began, Ben-Yehuda swiftly moved from the battalion headquarters in Nahal Raviv to a post on the Egyptian border with armored personnel carriers. Rockets were raining down, and warnings arrived regarding potential terrorist infiltration in the Shlomit and Bnei Netzer towns.’
The US has intelligence that Iranian-backed militia groups are planning to ramp up attacks against US forces in the Middle East, as Iran seeks to capitalize on the backlash in the region to US support for Israel, according to multiple US officials.
then Israel will have no choice but to neutralize Iran who sponsors both Hamas and Hezbollah & Israel will have to then destroy Iran’s nuclear program & likely Iran itself; WW III will likely begin
Israel has a right to self defense. I pray for no lives lost that are innocent lives on both sides. Yet lets not fool ourselves, this Hamas-Israel disaster has the ability to take this world to WW III and a nuclear war and fast. This Christmas can look very different than last and the next 2 months can unfold in a most devastating manner.
America will have no choice but to enter once Hezbollah strikes Israel and Iran strikes Israel. Understand then the unholy alliance between China, Russia and Iran…Key nations to me as to posture are Pakistan, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Understand China will take the opening to move on Taiwan. Then sea lanes and islands such as the Malaccan straights and Spratly islands become game and critical in any battle as to control.
We have never been closer to a World War and this would be WW III.
My ancestry (one half) are from the middle east originally.
Here is Everything That Happened in America While Joe Biden Was at the BeachJoe Biden, somehow, is the President of the United States. Somebody might want to tell him. This weekend, the White House once again carried on with its standard practice of “calling a lid” and shutting down Biden’s press events and public speaking engagements. What was the reason for shutting down his public appearances? Vacation. Indeed, Biden has spent more time …READ THE FULL REPORT
Greta Thunberg Gets Major Blowback from Israel Over Her Pro-Gaza PostAfter her implicit support for the terror organization Hamas, Israel’s Education Ministry has removed Greta Thunberg from the curriculum. The Education Ministry has stated that it will remove all references to climate activist Greta Thunberg after she published a weekend post supporting the Hamas terrorist group. “Hamas is a terrorist organization responsible for the murder of 1,400 innocent Israelis, including children, …READ THE FULL REPORT
BLM Leader Speaks Out Against Mistreatment of J6 Prisoners, Strongly Backs TrumpThe founder of a Black Lives Matter (BLM) organization is expressing his support for the January 6 prisoners and is unafraid to call former President Donald Trump “the best candidate we have.” Mark Fisher, who resigned from his leadership position at BLM Rhode Island, which he co-founded, and is now the founder and executive director of BLM Incorporated in Maryland, …READ THE FULL REPORT
Liz Cheney Refuses to Rule Out Presidential RunDisgraced former Rep. Lize Cheney (R-WY) has hinted that she’s considering a challenge against President Donald Trump by refusing to rule out a presidential run next year.READ MORE
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
(P)riceless
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 10:45 AM
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Yesterday, we discussed one potential chain reaction that could result from a further escalation of the Israel-Hamas war. But the conflict could spark more subtle chain reactions elsewhere too.
The Financial Times reported yesterday that rice is becoming unaffordable in various countries that rely heavily on the grain. The cause is an export ban in India, which accounts for 40% of global exports, that has been in effect since September last year. These restrictions originally targeted specific types of rice, but they have since been expanded. And variants that aren’t subject to the export ban yet, now come with a minimum sale price or tariffs.
Some are hoping that a better-than-expected harvest may lead to an easing of these restrictions. But fears that El Niño could lead to poor yields next year may make the Indian government reluctant to lift the export controls. As the FT notes, food prices are a key point for Prime Minister Modi into the upcoming election cycle. This sparks concerns that we could see a repeat of the 2008 rice crisis, and potential unrest in countries that rely heavily on imports of the staple.
The potential for another rice crisis should not be seen in a vacuum: the odds that this repeats are, to some degree, tied to the developments in the Middle East – and more particularly to the risks of another shock to global energy prices. Higher energy prices would first and foremost give the Indian government yet another reason to maintain the export ban, in order to limit the impact on households’ finances. However, that would deal a double blow to consumers in rice importing countries, who will then have to face both higher energy and higher food costs – with weaker currencies likely only adding insult to injury.
While the Middle East is in turmoil, legislation in the US Congress is frozen as the Republicans are still trying to agree on a candidate for the House Speakership. The remaining candidate, Jim Jordan, dropped out on Friday after he lost a third vote for support. In fact, he lost more Republican backing in each subsequent round of voting. On Friday, only 194 Republicans supported him and 25 defected. Since Republicans only have a small 221-212 majority in the House of Representatives, Jordan could afford to lose only 4 votes from his own party. All Democrats are voting in favor of their leader Hakeem Jeffries.
With Jim Jordan out of the race, nine Republicans jumped into it this weekend. After presenting themselves on Monday, Republicans are expected to take an internal vote on Tuesday. Subsequently, the winner will have to run against the Democratic Minority Leader in a vote on the House floor. The best known Republican candidates are Tom Emmer, Kevin Hern, Byron Donalds and Pete Sessions. Emmer is the Majority Whip, the number three House Republican in case there is a Republican House Speaker. His candidacy is endorsed by ousted House Speaker McCarthy. Hern leads the conservative Republican Study Group and considered entering the earlier race between Scalise and Jordan after McCarthy was deposed. However, in order to speed up the process he decided to stay out it. Donalds is a first time Congressman, with ties to Donald Trump. And Sessions has been in Congress since 1996. Other candidates are Mike Johnson, Jack Bergman, Austin Scott, Dan Meuser and Gary Palmer. As long as there is no House Speaker, urgent legislation on support for Israel and Ukraine, and avoiding a government shutdown after November 17, cannot proceed.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan still seems to pretending that things can go back to normal. The central bank announced another unscheduled bond buying operation today, after 10-year JGB yields surpassed 0.85%. This is the fifth unscheduled operation since Governor Ueda announced a softening of the bounds of the BoJ’s yield curve control policy. The intervention comes days after Nikkei reported that policymakers may implement further changes to the policy – possibly widening the tolerance band for yields even further – as early as next week.
Policymakers maintain that the earlier tweaks to the policy were merely for operational efficiency and should not be seen as policy tightening – even though they effectively allowed yields to rise. And, indeed, the timing of reported upcoming changes to YCC is remarkable: last week the national CPI print came in stronger than expected, and today’s PMI report indicated that price pressures remain elevated. Even if policymakers were to maintain a similar narrative next time, the optics are certainly against them.
The BoJ is walking on eggshells as it carefully removes itself from the bond market. The Japanese central bank is far from the only one facing difficulties withdrawing its support measures. As the ECB explores ways to shrink its balance sheet, higher yields are already causing some concern about potential debt sustainability issues. Although Eurozone spreads are still lower than they have been in the past, they are now measured against a much higher Bund yield. So when looking at outright levels, Italian BTP yields have already traded above 5% last week.
Likewise, removal of Fed stimulus is now occurring at a time when markets have to absorb increased Treasury issuance. US Treasury yields also briefly breached the 5%-level yesterday, before some key market players announced that they believe the rout was overdone and that they had closed their short positions.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.06038 DOWN 0.0031
USA/ YEN 149.75 DOWN .028 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2224 DOWN 0.0025
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3691 UP .0003 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 3 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 22.95 PTS OR 0.78%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 180.60 PTS OR 1/05%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.22% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 180.60 PTS OR 1.05%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.95 PTS OR 0.78%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.22%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 62.80 PTS OR 0.20%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1963.95
silver:$22.81
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 105.68 UP 34 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
Ethereum also rallied early on but gave a lot of its gains back, as ETH relative to BTC plunged back near Jun 2022 spike lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks were stronger overnight – because WW3 hadn’t started – then ramped on better than expected PMIs (see here for that malarkey) but that stalled into the European close sending stocks all the way to unchanged and to the lows of the day. From there they bounced with Nasdaq leading the charge ahead of tonight’s GOOGL, MSFT earnings…
The S&P broke back below its 200DMA, but found support…
Thanks in large part to a giant short squeeze at the open…
VIX was clubbed a baby seal once again, back down to almost an 18 handle from above 23 at Monday’s open….
As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott notes:“The Vol selling in Equities Options space has continued at an unrelenting pace these past 2 sessions, as funds look to exploit the recently “rich” VRP off the back of 1) the shock FCI tightening risking a “cycle-turn,” 2) geopol stress “fat tails” and 3) the legacy VIX Dealer “short upside convexity” problem which has made Index iVol so suddenly “squeezy,” evidenced by recent “extreme VIX Beta to SPX” and Vol of Vol.”
Bonds were mixed on the day with the long-end outperforming (30Y -5bps, 2Y +5bps), which leaves the 2Y yield alone higher on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The 30Y yield closed back below 5.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
Which, obviously, flattened the yield curve dramatically with 2s30s now inverted again…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar bounced hard off its pre-CPI lows, erasing all of yesterday’s tumble…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was basically flat on the day (in USD) but not in JPY where it reached a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil was pummeled ahead of tonight’s API data, because WW3 never erupted?
As Bloomberg’s Eddie Spence notes, gold’s explosive rally since Hamas’s attack on Israel has moved in tandem with oil prices, a sign some traders are hedging against stagflation.
The 15-day correlation between spot bullion and Brent crude is now at the highest in over a year. The relationship between the two commodities typically strengthens when oil begins to spike.
Finally, are stocks starting to catch down to central bank balance sheet realities?
Source: Bloomberg
…or will The Fed (et al.) pivot to QE before that gaping spread compresses from above?
EARLY MORNING TRADING/
TUCKER CARLSON interviewing Col MacGregor
Israel A ‘Nuclear Wildcard’ On ‘Dangerous Road To Armageddon’: Macgregor
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 08:00 PM
Tucker Carlson sat down with Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret.), who laid out a disturbing scenario in which the United States could quickly be pulled into a direct conflict with Iran, Russia and China over Israel’s anticipated response to the October 7 Hamas attack.
Carlson starts off highlighting Lindsey Graham, who vowed; “…if Hezbollah, which is a proxy of Iran, launches a massive attack on Israel, I consider that a threat to the… state of Israel, existential in nature. I will introduce a resolution [in] the United States Senate to allow military action by the United States in conjunction with Israel to knock Iran out of the Oil Business…”
Carlson then asks: “So what would war with Iran mean? Well, it’s hard to know because virtually no one who’s talking about it in public is operating from a deep interest in America’s interest. Is this good for us, or is it not?“
If, as Sen. Graham suggests, we start bombing critical infrastructure in Iran, Macgregor warns “the destruction would be wholesale” as Iran would target “all the bases we have in Iraq and Syria – with around 1000 Americans – would be targeted… and this time accurately.“
According to Macgregor, “The chosen destination” if we continue on this path, “is Armageddon,” and the implications (of which nobody seems to be considering) for the United States, Europe, and the Middle East are grave. For example, “just on the economic side, about 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Straits of Hormuz every month – probably 25% of liquefied natural gas, and you’re talking about shutting down 2 to three million barrels a day of oil from Iran.
“You know this entire region is involved in the war. This is not an Iranian Monopoly by any stretch of the imagination,” he continued.
The two also discussed how one of the primary challenges of in contemplating war with Iran is the unpredictable nature of such conflicts. Economic sanctions, which have been the go-to strategy for years, have failed to cripple Iran’s military capabilities. When military force comes into play, a whole new set of unknowns emerges.
The U.S. military, as it stands, may not be adequately prepared for such a conflict – particularly if the enemy has new weapons systems and capabilities.
“We’ve had the luxury of sitting around forward operating bases and striking opponents that were armed with AK-47s, and command detonated mines and the occasional mortar or rocket. Very, very low-intensity combat,” he said, referring to the types of engagements the US military has grown accustomed to.
Nuclear wildcard?
According to Macgregor, “This is a high-end, conventional war that we’re looking at, with the potential to go nuclear – which, obviously, I don’t think we or the Russians want to happen, but we have the wild-card in Israel. They do have a nuclear capability.”
“We don’t know what the trip wire is for them to employ such a weapon. At that point of course, all bets are off and I think most of the world would turn against Israel. Right now, they just have to worry about the Muslim world against them,” he continued, explaining that by focusing on Hamas and Hezbollah as immediate threats, the broader implications are obscured. For example, attacking urban environments such as Gaza comes with a high risk of civilian casualties – the consequences of which would catastrophic, both morally and strategically.
“Hezbollah has a very large operation in Mexico,” says Macgregor. “There are no doubt many, many Hezbollah agents inside the United States. We can only begin to imagine the kind of trouble they could cause.”
In the midst of all this, the question arises: How will a war with Iran affect American domestic politics? History shows that war is often used to stifle dissent, but in today’s connected world, censorship can only go so far. Public opinion, initially in favor of violence against Hamas, may wane as the conflict escalates and images of destruction flood the media.
“But what’s most important, I think, for Americans to understand is, if we attack Iran on the basis of Hezbollah’s alleged willingness to attack Israel, if Israel gets into a real shooting war with Hezbollah, they have the largest armed forces in the region.”
soft data..use seasonal adjustments so pay no attention to this
US PMIs Print Goldilocks Surprise In October: Growth Expansion & Slowing Inflation
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 09:54 AM
Despite a plunge in ‘hard’ data in recent weeks, S&P Global ‘soft’ survey data shows ‘expansion’ for US Manufacturing and Services (both of which were expected to decline):
Manufacturing PMI: Oct Flash 50.0 (49.8 prior, 49.5 exp)
Services PMI: Oct Flash 50.9 (50.1 prior, 49.9 exp)
“Hopes of a soft landing for the US economy will be encouraged by the improved situation seen in October. The S&P Global PMI survey has been among the most downbeat economic indicators in recent months, so the upturn in US output growth signalled at the start of the fourth quarter is good news. Future output expectations have also turned up despite rising geopolitical concerns and domestic political tensions, climbing to the jointhighest for nearly one-and-a-half years.
“Sentiment has improved in part due to hopes of interest rates having peaked, something which looks increasingly likely given the further cooling of inflationary pressures witnessed in October. In spite of higher oil prices, firms’ input cost inflation fell sharply to the lowest since October 2020, and average selling prices for goods and services posted the smallest monthly rise since June 2020.
“The survey’s selling price gauge is now close to its prepandemic long-run average and consistent with headline inflation dropping close to the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months, something which looks likely to be achieved without output falling into contraction. That said, the tensions in the Middle East pose downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation, adding fresh uncertainty to the outlook.”
The US ‘beat’ comes as Europe’s PMIs were a shitshow.
The Euro area composite flash PMI decreased by 0.6pt to 46.5, below consensus expectations, driven by a decline in the services sector. Across countries, the weakness in the area-wide index was driven by a deceleration in Germany and the periphery, partially offset by an improvement in France. In the UK, the composite flash PMI improved marginally to 48.6, slightly above consensus expectations, on the back of a pickup in manufacturing activity. We see three main takeaways from today’s data.
First, we see persistent weakness in the Euro area, driven by renewed decline in the services sector, which saw only a brief trend reversal in September. Country press releases attributed lower output volumes to weak demand, client hesitancy and tighter financial conditions.
Second, inflationary pressures continue to moderate in the Euro area, as reflected by the continued decline in output prices, with input prices showing signs of renewed cooling, after a tick-up in September.
Third, while marginally better than last month, the UK growth momentum remains subdued across both sectors. This, in turn, is now being accompanied by an increase in output prices, despite continued cooling in input price pressures.
The US is now the only region not in contraction…
Thank you Bidenomics! (or is it just ‘seasonal adjustments’?)
According to the U.S. Treasury, year-end data from September 2023 show that the deficit for the full year 2023 was $1.7 trillion, $320 billion higher than the prior year’s deficit. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit was 6.3%, an increase from 5.4% in FY 2022. This means that the United States will likely post the worst GDP growth excluding debt increases since 1929, or, in other words, that the country is in a recession disguised by bloated deficit spending.
This disastrous result shows that the Keynesian science fiction of the public sector multiplier does not work. The Biden administration increased taxes, but revenues declined. Governmental receipts totaled $4.4 trillion in FY 2023 (16.5 percent of GDP), 9.3% lower than in 2022 and below the budget projections. This decline is mostly due to $456 billion in lower individual income tax receipts and $106 billion in lower deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve due to higher interest rates, according to the Treasury.
The mirage of fiscal consolidation through revenue measures has proven to be false yet again. Lower-than-expected tax receipts are another clear indication of a weak economy. We cannot forget that the Biden administration increased taxes, expecting a record revenue figure. The opposite happened.
You may think that the deficit is a result of rising yields and that the central bank could have monetized the debt, but that would have meant higher inflation and an even worse deficit because the government would have increased expenditures well above the $6.1 trillion as it always does.
The United States government is unable to spend less than 22.8% of GDP, and no tax revenue measure can eliminate the deficit. Those who think that taxing the rich would eliminate the deficit should ask how the government would collect $1.7 trillion in additional taxes per year and every year, no matter what the growth of the economy is.
With $33.6 trillion of public debt and the administration’s own estimate of the accumulated deficit for 2023–2022, public debt is going to soar by $14 trillion. No tax measure can eliminate that problem.
Deficits are always a spending problem. Massively monetizing government spending was the cause of inflation. The excessive money growth created a persistent inflationary problem that continues to this day, even with declining monetary aggregates. This level of inflation remains because the government continues to consume an excessive amount of newly created currency units, and money market fund inflows show that the reduction in base money (M2) may be misleading to predict an abrupt fall in the interannual inflation rate. It is impossible to believe that a massive intervention from the Federal Reserve would have avoided the increase in deficit, but it does not even matter. Even if there had been no rise in the cost of debt, the deficit would have remained above $1.6 trillion. Even if the tax receipts had been in line with the government’s estimate, the annual deficit would have been higher than $1.3 trillion.
There is simply no excuse. The different arguments for Keynesianism are all debunked.
High government spending has not created higher growth or rising real wages.
There is no fiscal multiplier.
Tax receipts do not rise with tax rate increases.
Furthermore, government spending is the only real source of the enormous deficit that is creating both an inflationary problem and a challenge for the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency.
Countries like China are selling government bonds at the fastest rate in years; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains well above 4.5% and is likely to rise.
There is no free government money. You wanted a stimulus check? You have high inflation and negative real wage growth. If the U.S. does not eliminate the deficit, it will put the U.S. dollar at risk.
It is not true that the deficit means more reserves for the private sector and more dollars for the world. The supply of U.S. dollars for the world should come from productive investment and private sector credit creation, not rising government size. Following the eurozone is a dangerous example and leads to poor growth and higher unemployment.
High public deficits mean lower growth, lower real wages, and more debt in the future. All of it leads to higher taxes and persistent inflation. There is no such thing as a balanced budget with ever-increasing government size and constant erosion of the private sector via higher taxes.
END
CREs are imploding: now a San Francisco apartment building loses 50% of CRE value. Market tanks
(zerohedge)
Huge San Fran Apartment Building Reportedly Loses 50% Of Value As CRE Market Tanks
MONDAY, OCT 23, 2023 – 06:00 PM
Soaring interest rates and a slide in bank lending following March’s regional banking meltdown have pressured the commercial real estate sector, especially office towers nationwide. But the stress might be spreading as a new report warns one of San Francisco’s largest apartment buildings has sustained a near 50% collapse in valuation in just five years, with risks of imminent default.
Local paper San Francisco Chronicle, citing new data from real estate data firm Trepp, said the 754-unit apartment tower, called “NEMA,” located at 10th and Market Street in the downtown area, was valued at $543.6 million in 2018 but is now worth around $279 million. This means in just five years, the building’s value crashed a whopping 48.6%.
Crescent Heights, the building owner, is at risk of imminent default because its $384 million mortgage exceeds the current $279 million value by $105 million. In August, Trepp said the building owner warned, “The property’s cash flow can no longer cover the monthly debt service.”
High interest rates plus sliding property valuations will keep refinancing conditions strained for Crescent Heights. A September inspection report said the building owner would need to make significant investments to maintain “good” conditions in the building. As of 1Q23, NEMA had 92% occupancy.
San Francisco landlords, especially office tower ones in the downtown area, have been battered by high interest rates, and a crime-ridden metro area imploding under failed progressive policies, such as ‘defund the police,’ which has sparked a tsunami in crime. Businesses and people are moving out of the city to safer areas.
In recent quarters, several office towers, malls, and hotels in the downtown area have either defaulted or sold at a massive discount.
In recent weeks, Goldman interviewed real estate legend Scott Rechler, Chairman and CEO of RXR Realty, who provided the understanding the CRE crisis is only just beginning.
end
UAW
UAW hits GM’s largest plant with a surprise 5,000 worker strike.
(zerohedge)
UAW Hits GM’s Largest Plant With ‘Surprise’ 5,000-Worker Strike As Labor Action Chaos Accelerates
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 11:05 AM
United Auto Workers boss Shawn Fain must be infuriated with Detroit’s Big Three this week. He hit General Motors’ largest and most profitable SUV plant in Arlington, Virginia, with a 5,000-member strike on Tuesday, following news Monday the union hit Stellantis’ RAM 1500 truck plant in Michigan with a strike.
GM’s Arlington Assembly plant manufactures the Chevy Tahoe, Chevy Suburban, GMC Yukon, and Cadillac Escalade. UAW’s 5,000-member strike announcement comes hours after GM reported quarterly profits that exceeded expectations. However, the automaker retracted its full-year forecast due to anticipated financial challenges in the fourth quarter, especially as the strike approaches its sixth week.
“Another record quarter, another record year. As we’ve said for months: record profits equal record contracts.” said Fain, adding, “It’s time GM workers, and the whole working class, get their fair share.”
UAW continued:
Despite having made $10 billion in profits in the past nine months, breaking revenue records for another consecutive quarter, and beating Wall Street expectations, GM’s latest offer fails to reward UAW members for the profits they’ve generated.
GM’s offer lags behind Ford, with the company proposing a two-tier wage progression, the weakest 401(k) contribution offer on the table, a deficient COLA and other shortcomings. On the heels of their previous quarter, which set “a post-bankruptcy record” in terms of revenue, it is clear that GM can afford a record contract and do more to repair the harm done by years of falling real wages and declining standards across the Big Three.
On Monday, UAW hit Stellantis’ Sterling Heights Assembly Plant in Michigan with a 6,800-member strike. The total number of UAW workers on strike is now 45,000, or about 30% of the union.
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
THE KING REPORT
The King Report October 24, 2023 Issue 7103
Independent View of the News
ESZs and US stocks declined early on Monday after the 10-yr. yield topped 5% for first time since 2007.
From Friday and Monday’s King Reports: The S&P 500 Index is in an extremely dangerous position technically… A breach of the October low (4216.45), which would also breach the 200-Day Moving Average, could unleash feverish algo and momentum selling.
The S&P 500 Index breached its October low minutes after the NYSE opening. The index hit a low of 4189.22 at 9:42 ET. Often when a critical technical threshold is breached negatively, the usual suspects quickly marshal forces to reverse the trend and psychological damage.
This occurred yesterday when impact trading, AKA manipulation, pushed the S&P 500 Index back above its October low by 9:56 ET. Besides saving stocks, traders wanted to be long for the Monday rally and coming results from four of the uber Fangs.
It appears impact trading also occurred in bonds. After the US 10-year broke through 5%, the bond market rescue commenced. USZs hit a low of 107 4/32 at 5:40 ET. They rallied to 108 8/32 as part of the pump & dump for US trading. The dump took USZs down to 107 24/32 at 9:45 ET. Then, someone drove USZs to 109 8/32 at 9:45 ET. After a quick half-point drop, USZs jumped higher, hitting 109 24/32 five minutes after the 11:35 ET. USZs hit a peak of 110 8/32 at 13:21 ET and closed at 109 23/32.
When the US 10-year and the S&P 500 Index were forced higher after breaching key technical thresholds, rabid short covering and momentum buying occurred. This is why impact trading is employed.
The S&P 500 Index hit a daily high of 4255.84 at 13:00 ET. The index stair-stepped lower until 15:37 ET and then rebounded 7 handles by 15:48 ET. Stocks then rolled over into the close.
@ISABELNET_SA: The S&P 500 achieved a remarkable feat on Monday, as it recorded a record-breaking 15-[Mon] day win streak. This streak represents the longest period of consecutive [Monday] gains since 1950. (The streak ended yesterday.) https://isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500
The FT: China launches investigation into iPhone maker Foxconn, says state media Tax authorities said to have inspected a number of the Apple supplier’s sites in provinces China has launched an investigation into Apple iPhone maker Foxconn over tax and land use, Chinese state media reported on Sunday…https://www.ft.com/content/e6abcb86-1c80-4914-ae54-c7df94d7a9e0
@Jkylebass: Tim Cook and @Apple shareholders are going to get what they should have expected all-along. They are going to lose most of everything they’ve invested in China. This is standard operating procedure for xi and his band of Communist Party thugs.
Japan probes Google over alleged antitrust violations as global scrutiny mounts https://trib.al/MTAjK8k
Positive aspects of previous session. Stocks and bonds rallied sharply after breaching important technical thresholds Fangs led the rally because 5 uber Fangs will report results over the next 3 days
Negative aspects of previous session The US 10-year hit 5.02% and the S&P 500 Index breached its October low US stocks peaked at 13:00 ET; suggesting that the rally was largely short-covering and traders
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How much of Monday’s rally was due to impact trading? The dollar declined sharply; gold declined moderately.
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4220.70 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4255.84; 4189.22
Behind the Curtain: Rattled U.S. government fears wars could spread Never before have we talked to so many top government officials who, in private, are so worried about so many overseas conflicts at once…(With demented Ole Joe stooging for Obama’s Iran-loving bunglers!) These simultaneous threats are hitting at the very moment the American political system seems — and sometimes is — literally broken… there has been a total collapse of people’s trust in the opposing party, the media, what they see or share on social platforms, and even the top-secret intelligence the government relies on to measure these threats… (The fault lies solely with the US Establishment.) https://www.axios.com/2023/10/20/biden-government-war-fears-israel-hamas
@sentdefender (Sunday night): The U.S. Senator from Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal stated today while on a Congressional Visit to Tel Aviv that Iran did in fact give Hamas a “Green Light” to launch its Surprise Attack against Southern Israel on October 7th and that he is Warning Iran against giving the same “Green Light” to Hezbollah; this appears to be a contradiction of what the White House has been saying which is that so far there is No Evidence that Iran had anything to do with the attack.
PBS’s @nickschifrin: 2 hostages [Nurit Yitzhak & Yochved Lifshitz] have been released following Qatari and Egyptian mediation efforts, according to a source briefed on the matter. (Hamas is dripping out hostages to delay the IDF invasion of Gaza. BTW hostage taking is a war crime per pundits.) Significant new language from John Kirby about attacks on US troops by “proxy groups supported by IRGC and the regime”: “Iran is closely monitoring these events, and in some cases actively facilitating these attacks, and spurring on others who may want to exploit the conflict.”
Talks to Release Hostages Held Up over Hamas Demand for Fuel – WSJ
DJT Sr. Advisor @StephenM: Biden’s Ukraine war bill includes a colossal slush fund to resettle illegal aliens in all 50 states. Their contempt for you knows no bounds. Republicans must defeat this monstrosity.
Americans Are Overdue With Their Car Payments at Highest Rate in Nearly 30 Years 6.1% of subprime auto borrowers are at least 60 days past due on their loans, the highest percentage in data dating back to 1994, according to Bloomberg, which cited Fitch Ratings. The 6.1% of borrowers behind on auto loans last month marks a surge from the 2.6% reported in May 2021, after the federal government significantly lowered interest rates in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic… https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2023/10/21/americans-are-overdue-with-their-car-payments-at-highest-rate-in-nearly-30-years/
@no_itsmyturn: NOW – Airstrikes on Khan Younis, Rafah, Beit Lahiya (Southern Gaza) 5:13 PM ET Oct 23, 2023 S#@t’s about to blow soon, and this is not a speculation.
Today – Though US stocks peaked at 13:00 ET on Monday and then declined into the close – and The S&P 500 Index closed at its lowest level since May 31, 2023 (and below the October intraday low), the usual suspects will buy ESZs and Fangs because Microsoft and Google report after the close. The Street almost always expects great Fang results. The key will be after-hour trading in reporting Fangs.
Earnings season upward bias is coming to a close. Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) report today; Meta reports on Wednesday; and Amazon reports on Thursday. Because the meat of Fang reporting season is here, the usual suspects poured into Fangs on Monday. The NY Fang+ Index closed +1.14%.
Expected Economic Data: Oct S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49.4, Services PMI 49.98, Composite PMI 50; Oct Richmond Fed 3
ESZs hit +13.0 (buying for Fang results) at 20:00 ET; but sank to +5.50 on north Gaza airstrikes.
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4382; 100-day MA: 4410; 150-day MA: 4310; 200-day MA: 4235 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,135; 100-day MA: 34,318; 150-day MA: 33,989; 200-day MA: 33,830 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4473.50 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4345.20 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4261.73 triggers a buy signal
@bennyjohnson: White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on antisemitism concern in America: KJP: “We have not seen any credible threats… Muslims and those perceived to be Muslim have endured a disproportionate number of hate-fueled attacks… Arab Americans are concerned about hate being directed at their communities…”https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1716534389134311634
@libsoftiktok: School makes Jewish students sign gag order after being attacked Jewish middle schoolers at @MBUSDnews were reportedly attacked by other students after Hamas attacks on Israel. Some students allegedly said “revenge is beautiful” and “all Jews should be killed.” The school investigated and concluded that it wasn’t hate speech, the perpetrators received no punishment, and the school made the victims sign a gag order to not discuss the incident. Since the school doesn’t want anyone discussing it, definitely don’t share this or tag them! https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1716494430935351388
In contemporary leftist USA, “all Jews should be killed” is NOT hate speech, but using mis-gendered pronouns, criticizing protected groups, and talking about rampant violent urban crime is hate speech.
@TheFirstonTV: The (Detroit) police have no suspect and no motive but are confident the stabbing death of a (female) Synagogue Leader was NOT anti-Semitic. (Not a parody!) https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1716235537093206044
@TheBabylonBee: Biden Announces He Has Secured Pinky Promise from Hamas Not to Use $100 Million for Terrorismhttps://t.co/YI1QvITb3F
@zerohedge: NBC is absolutely furious that the world is ignoring it and the rest of the MSM in favor of twitter accounts, by 14 to 1. “The researchers branded seven high-performing accounts on X as “new elites,” because they have exercised “disproportionate power and influence” over Israel and Hamas news…” https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/7-accounts-warp-israel-hamas-war-news-x-musk-rcna121465
Former Giants QB (and Hall of Famer) blasts officiating over non-reviewable play “It’s time to make ‘roughing the passer’ reviewable,” Warner wrote. “Too many ‘no ways’ happening right now! (And it’s extending drives, leading to TDs & changing complexion of games)… Even NBC broadcasters thought the penalty was questionable. Rules expert Terry McAulay, who worked as an NFL official from 1998-2017 went as far as saying the call shouldn’t have been made… https://www.nj.com/giants/2023/10/former-giants-qb-and-hall-of-famer-blasts-officiating-over-non-reviewable-play.html NFL Fans Demanding Investigation into ‘Rigged’ Officiating Crew The finish to Sunday afternoon’s Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts game was extremely controversial. The Browns appeared to get bailed out – multiple times – by the officiating crew while trailing against the Colts on Sunday afternoon… https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-fans-demanding-investigation-into-rigged-officiating-crew/ar-AA1iFfyM
The NFL refereeing crisis has worsened to the point that a US Senator called it out on Sunday night. No matter how many times the sappy NFL Commissioner calls the refereeing ‘the best it’s ever been’ in response to criticisms about the NFL refs, the public has never been more engaged about the topic.
Fans increasingly complain about refereeing biases, ineptness, and inconsistencies. On Sunday, social media teemed with evidentiary pictures and videos clips of horrid and missed calls. We shut off the Sunday night game during the second quarter because it was apparent what was occurring. For the game, Miami had 10 penalties, per reports, while the home-team Eagles had ZERO. Blatant holding, repeated false starts by the right tackle, and face mask infractions by the Eagles were prominently displayed on social media. US Senator Marco Rubio retweeted pictures of the missed calls.
GOP Sen. @marcorubio: Philadelphia is an elite team and outplayed Miami on SNF. I hope we get to see #MIAvsPHI again but with a Dolphins team not missing 2 Pro-Bowl corners, 3 of 5 starting o-linemen including a Pro-Bowl tackle and without the most unusual string of missed officiating calls in recent memory… https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1716298668431618438
Brad Allen’s officiating crew was a one-sided farce in Eagles-Dolphins @SharpFootball home teams win in 58% of tonight’s ref Brad Allen’s games & cover 56% ATS since 2016. NFL average is 55% win & 49% cover. Allen’s crews have called an above average rate of penalties on road teams in his career, per @nflrefstats1 tonight? 8 penalties (60 yds) on MIA 0 on PHI. Philly had no penalties in the game, and Miami had 10 for 70 yards…. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2023/10/22/brad-allen-referee-eagles-dolphins/71286016007/
Sports Illustrated: The NFL Needs Common Sense Referee Reform How many games will be marred by late penalties before the league implements some sort of mechanism to overturn bad calls? – Ask a handful of other coaches this year. Here we are, in 2023, with enough technology to enable wireless convection baking, pet feeding and car driving, ignorant to what is happening right in front of us… https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/22/nfl-needs-referee-reform-sky-judge
@SandyForLiberty: Wealth of the last 6 President before and after leaving office. 6. Ronald Reagan $10.6 M – $15.4 M 5. GHW Bush $4 M – $23 M 4. Bill Clinton $1.3 M – $241.5 M 3. GW Bush $20 M – $40 M 2. Barrack Obama $1.3 M – $70 M 1. Donald Trump $3.7 B – $2.5 B Sources: http://Forbs.com,http://CelebrityNetWorth.com
@kevinnbass: Deborah Birx from her memoir, explaining how “two weeks to flatten the curve” was just marketing for harsh, months-long lockdowns that she was really planning: “On Monday and Tuesday [March 9th and 10th, 2020]…we worked simultaneously to develop the flatten-the-curve guidance I hoped to present to the vice president at week’s end. Getting buy-in on the simple mitigation measures every American could take was just the first step leading to longer and more aggressive interventions. We had to make these palatable to the administration by avoiding the obvious appearance of a full Italian lockdown. … No sooner had we convinced the Trump administration to implement our version of a two-week shutdown than I was trying to figure out how to extend it. Fifteen Days to Slow the Spread was a start, but I knew it would be just that. I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them.”
AM2014.57
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