GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $23.90 TO $2390.00
SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.46 TO $28.26
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2388.65.
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $28.20
The defense of $2300 gold is now upon us and surpassed. Next up $2400 gold//Silver’s next line is $28.42. Then $34.76
Bitcoin morning price:$62,651 DOWN 751 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $63,073 UP 329 dollars
Platinum price closing DOWN $24.50 TO $962.80
Palladium price; DOWN $41.50 AT $1016.80
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 35 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD……
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 16 Apr 2024 06:42:11 AM CT.
…from the CME….
“As of Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data is no longer accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and has a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.”
Now I retrieve the data after 1 am
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3301.52 UP 14.25 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,301.52 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 16 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1921.50 UP 5.50 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1921.50 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 16/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2248.89 UP 4.20 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16.2024)
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END
EXCHANGE: COMEX
ACCESS MARKET
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,365.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/15/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 04/17/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 8
190 H BMO CAPITAL 119
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 253
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1020
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1422
661 C JP MORGAN 3
690 C ABN AMRO 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 35 10
905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 1,436 1,436
MONTH TO DATE: 15,683
JPMORGAN STOPPED (RECEIVED) 3/1436 CONTRACTS
FOR APRIL/2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2024. CONTRACT: 1436 NOTICES FOR 143,600 OZ or 4.4466 TONNES
total notices so far: 15,683 contracts for 1,568,300 Oz (48.786 tonnes)
FOR APRIL:
SILVER NOTICES: 101 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 505,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1540 for 7,770,000 oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $23.10
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.45 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.45 TONNES
SLV//WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS AT THE SLV// (THIS MAKES LOTS OF SENSE!)
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.857 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/
// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 427.072 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1643 CONTRACTS TO 176,605 AND RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $.46 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN PANICKING SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE SMALL PRICE GAIN. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 435 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 435 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.46), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1973 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.46.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR SIZED 330 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.465 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 8.305 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 8.305 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) GOOD HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 435 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A WHOPPING 714 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 17,848 contracts: OR 89.240 MILLION OZ (1487 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 89.240 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 89.240 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1973 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 330 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL. OF 2.465 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAYS’ 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING RISES TO 8.305 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1973 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GOOD SIZED 435 CONTRACTS,//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (435) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 101 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 505,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 720 OI CONTRACTS TO 513,150 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 791 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (4409 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $9.30 GAIN IN PRICE//MONDAY. THE BANKERS WERE FORCED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MEGA HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 144,600 OZ.(4.497 TONNES)
NEW STANDING 49.928 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $9.30 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF OI CONTRACTS (13.71 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4338 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 513,150
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3618 CONTRACTS WITH 720 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4338 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3618 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 4438 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4338 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (720) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3618 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 4.497 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING 49.928 TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.
// 4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1465 CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS WITH THE FED’S CONTINUAL RAID ON THE COMEX GOLD.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 48,611 CONTRACTS OR 4,861,100 OZ OR 151.200 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4050 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 151.200 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 151.200/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.25% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 151.20 TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1643 CONTRACTS OI TO 176,605 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 330 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 330 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 330 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1643 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 330 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1973 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 9.865 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.46 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 50.38 PTS OR 1.65% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 351.49 PTS OR 2.12% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 761.60 PTS OR 1.94% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.84%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.23786//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2676 /Oil UP TO 85.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 91.30/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 1643 CONTRACTS TO 513,150 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.30 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY TRADING. WE HAD FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WELL AS SHORTS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.THE VOLUME ON THE COMEX YESTERDAY WAS ESTIMATED AT A VERY STRONG 360,881.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4338 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 4338 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4338 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 4409 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4338 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 720 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.30 MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 1465 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THE ENTIRE RAID ON MONDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK WHICH SUPPLIED ALL THE VOLUME)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (49.928 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 45.427 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $9.30 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED SIZED GAIN OF 3618 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE 0F $9.30.
WE HAD A FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF MONDAY’S TRADING ALONG. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 11.253 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (44.8615 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MAMMOTH QUEUE JUMP OF 144,608 OZ (4.497 TONNES)//NEW STANDING; 49.928 TONNES
NEW STANDING: 49.928 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $2.80
WE HAD REMOVED 791 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3618 CONTRACTS OR 361,800 (11.253 TONNES)
estimated gold volumes/Friday 517,162 huge
confirmed volume Friday: 360,886 huge
//speculators have left the gold arena
APRIL 16/ INITIAL APRIL GOLD
/ /// THE APRIL 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | oz 32.15 OZ BRINKS one kilobar . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1430 notice(s) 143,000 OZ 4.4466 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 368 contracts 38800oz 1.144 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 15,683 notices 1,568,300 oz 48.780 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Brinks: 32.15 oz
one kilobar
total customer withdrawal: 32.15 oz
we had total deposit 0 oz
Adjustments: 2
i) out of JPMorgan: customer to dealer 9,645.300 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 236.600 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 1804 contracts having GAINED 1150 contracts. We had 296 contracts served on MONDAY, so we GAINED A WHOPPING 1446 contracts or an additional 144,600 oz (4.497 tonnes) will stand at the comex
MAY LOST 167 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1818
JUNE DECREASED ITS OI BY 2614 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 413,893 CONTRACTS.
We had 1436 contracts filed for today representing 143,600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1436 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (15,683 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (1804 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1436 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,605,200 OZ OR 49.928TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL. contract month: No of notices filed so far (15,683) x 100 oz + (1804) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (1436) x 100 oz which equals 1,605,200 oz (49.928 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL: 49.928 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,629,396.038 50.68 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,570,655.516OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,531,376,137 (234.257 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9962,653.351 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,902,020 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 183.57 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 16
INITIAL
//2024// THE APRIL 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 659,957.397 oz CNT . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 597,737.500 oz Asahi |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 101 CONTRACT(S) (505,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 121 contracts (605,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1540 Contracts (7,700,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Asahi: 597,737.500 oz
total customer deposits 597,737.500 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.383 million oz/291.028 million or 44.91%
adjustment: 1 customer to dealer Brinks 97,114.630 oz
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) Out of CNT: 659,957.397 oz
adjustment: 1 customer to dealer 97,117.630 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 46.563MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 291.028million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 222 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 241 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 287 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED A STRONG 40 CONTRACTS OR ADDITIONAL 200,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX UNDERGOING A QUEUE JUMP
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 693 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 84,067
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 28 CONTRACTS RISING TO 678
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 2441 CONTRACTS UP TO 69,378
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 101 for 505,000 oz
ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR MONDAY: AN ASTRONOMICAL 142,806 CONTRACTS
final no 142,896 contracts for yesterday.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1540 x 5,000 oz = 7,700,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (222) and the number of notices served upon today 101x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2024 contract month: 1540 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL. (222) – number of notices served upon today (101 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates to 8.305 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 8.305 million oz.
There are 46.563 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 826.72 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONNES
APRIL 11 WITH GOLD UP $25.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.25 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLSS AT 828.46 TONNES
APRIL 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.71 TONNES
APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 827,85 TONNES
APRIL 8 WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 826.41 TONNES
APRIL 5 WITH GOLD UP $38.65 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 832.45 TONNES
APRIL 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.73 TONNES
APRIL 3 WITH GOLD UP $33,85 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 2 WITH GOLD UP $23.90 TODAY; HUG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITH DRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 1 WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $26.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY FALLS TO 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 835.33 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $17.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.75 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 21 WITH GOLD UP $24.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 20 WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 837.35 TONNES
MARCH 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 833.32 TONNES
MARCH 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.20 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 13 WITH GOLD UP $14.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $21.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:NOT AVAILABLE///LAST VALUE 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 11 WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 8 WITH GOLD UP $21.05 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.57 TONNES
MARCH 7 WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4,20 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.44 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 828.45 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP $0.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.549 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.33 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.320 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.328 MILLION OZ
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP $0.61 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.748 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.671 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.312 MILLION OZ
APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.14 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.835 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.641 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 84 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.721 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.806 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 1.691 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.079 MILLION OZ
MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 0.366 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.388 MILLION OZ
MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.887 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.022 MILLION OZ
MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.1899 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.909 MILLION OZ
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.560 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.720 MILLION OZ
MARCH 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.792 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.280 MILLION OZ
MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.792 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.280 MILLION OZ
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.006 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.866 MILLION OZ
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.549 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 11/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.147 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.323 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.299 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.519 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.665 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.818 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.378 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427,105 MILLION OZ
MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.499 MILL;ION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.483 MILLION OZ
MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
FEB 29/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430/982 MILLION OZ
FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.086 MILLION OZ
FEB 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.64 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.943 MILLION OZ
FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.348 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.385 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.008 MILLION OZ
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.235 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.393 MILLION OZ
FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 56 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.119 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
CLOSING INVENTORY 427.072 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFFGOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
END
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/…
Stanford Finance Professor Anat Admati Is Making Jamie Dimon Very Nervous – Again Calling His Bank “Dangerous”
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 16, 2024 ~
Stanford Finance and Economics Professor Anat Admati has been valiantly attempting to save the American financial system from the corrupting influence and disinformation campaigns of men like JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon for more than a decade. Her voice is gaining traction and that’s making Dimon very nervous…
***
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA
Gold banking accounts shine in South Korea as price of precious metal soars
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-04-16 10:35 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Yi Whan-woo
Korea Times, Seoul, South Korea
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
A growing number of bank clients are investing in gold using a deposit account that allows them to buy and sell the precious metal, whose price is surging due to heightened geopolitical risks and an increasing preference for safe haven assets.
The country’s four major commercial banks — KB, Shinhan, Hana, and Woori — collectively reported on Monday a total of 255,887 accounts in which depositors entrust cash to the banks that purchase an equivalent value of gold on their behalf following consultation.
Account holders have the option to possess the actual gold they have invested in or to wait for market prices to appreciate, enabling them to withdraw a greater cash amount than their initial investment.
The number of so-called “gold banking accounts” increased steadily as the war in Ukraine drags on and financial market uncertainties increase due to the Israel-Hamas military conflict. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/biz/2024/04/602_372799.html
end
Stefan Gleason: When will gold and silver miners start believing in their product?
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-04-16 13:08 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Stefan Gleason, CEO
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Miners spend billions of dollars every year pulling precious metals out of the ground. They toil mightily for years on end to produce these stores of value — but then they turn right around and sell all their gold and silver immediately in exchange for fiat currencies.
If you stop to really think about it, this may seem strange
These businesses quite literally mine real money. But like nearly every other business or individual, they still seem to be stuck in the fiat currency paradigm.
It takes tremendous risk, capital, and time to find a resource, develop a mining project, and dig up and process the metals. It is extremely difficult to produce gold and silver at a profit. …
… For the remainder of the commentary:
* * *
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS/LIVE FROM THE VAULT
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES/COPPER AND OTHER METALS
(Bloomberg)
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.2386
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2670
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 50.30 PTS OR 1.65%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 351.49 PTS OR 2.12%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 761.60 OR 1.94%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 106.02 EURO RISES TO 1.0633 UP 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISRS TO. +.873Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 153.31/JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN:DOWN/ OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4635***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.868* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.304…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.407
3j Gold at $2372.50 silver at: 28.28 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 60 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 94.12//
3m oil into the 85 dollar handle for WTI and 91 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.65// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.873% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9130 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9709 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.649 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.754 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.949 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.49…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 8 BASIS PTS AT 4.323
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Rebound On Strong Earnings Even As Global Market Mood Remains Dismal
S&P futures traded modestly in the green, erasing earlier losses and signaling a recovery after the S&P 500 fell more than 1% in the past two sessions, following stronger than expected earnings from index heavyweight UnitedHealth Group which soared 6% after reporting first-quarter profit that beat Wall Street’s expectations and affirmed its outlook for the year, despite the costs associated with a cyberattack on one of its subsidiaries that has roiled the health-care industry; other reporters such as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley also gained. of 8:45am, S&P futures gained 0.3%, after trading down 0.2% earlier this morning; Nasdaq futures also reversed an earlier loss and traded about 0.2% higher. Meanwhile, loans continued their ascent, with 10Y yields rising as highas 4.65% before modestly reversing, while 2-year Treasuries approached 5%. The dollar advanced for a fifth day, its longest run since January.
In premarket trading, Tesla fell as much as 2.6% in premarket trading as two of the electric carmaker’s top executives left in the carmaker’s largest-ever round of job cuts. Morgan Stanley rose 3% in the premarket after reporting wealth management net revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Its equities trading revenue was also ahead of consensus. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- UnitedHealth Group rises 6% after reporting first-quarter profit that beat Wall Street’s expectations and affirmed its outlook for the year, despite the costs associated with a cyberattack on one of its subsidiaries that has roiled the health-care industry.
- Hims & Hers declines 5% after Jefferies downgraded the telehealth firm to hold, saying expectations on the stock are now at a “more appropriate level.”
- Intra-Cellular Therapies climbs 18% after posting positive top-line results from a late-stage trial of its investigative treatment for depression.
- Live Nation drops 9% after Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice was preparing to file an antitrust complaint against the company over its Ticketmaster business, citing three people familiar with the matter.
- Macatawa Bank jumps 38% following a deal that will see Wintrust Financial acquire it for about $510.3m, or $14.85 a share, in an all-stock transaction.
- Morgan Stanley rises 2% after posting a 1Q revenue beat.
Markets have slumped in recent days as economic data continues to underscores US economic strength, while conflict in the Mideast fans the risk of higher energy prices and inflation, frustrating hopes for imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. With earnings season underway, there’s growing concern that the mega-cap leaders will struggle to justify their steep valuations.
“Markets are looking for an excuse to take a breather and the combination of rising geopolitical risk alongside inflation fear and Fed anxiety is providing some decent ground for that,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management.
As noted yesterday, traders are no longer fully pricing in a Fed rate cut before November, while UBS Group AG strategists warned there may be no pivot at all and that US policymakers will instead embark on a hiking cycle. Treasury 10-year yields have spiked more than 10 basis points to 4.65% since the start of the week. With stocks and bonds coming under pressure, the dollar pushed higher as investors piled into haven assets.
Recent data “has given the Fed pause for thought and the market has repriced quite significantly,” said Daniel Loughney, head of fixed income at Mediolanum International Funds. “We have a powerful dynamic whereby US growth and inflation dynamics are mingling with big-picture commodity and supply chain-related inflationary pressures.”
Meanwhile on the geopolitical front, top Israeli military officials have vowed to respond to Iran’s missile attack despite diplomatic calls for restraint.
This year’s record rally has left markets especially vulnerable to a pullback, according to top Wall Street strategists. A survey from Bank of America Corp. found that investor allocation to equities is at the highest in over two years. Citigroup strategists counted $52 billion of long positions on the S&P 500, 88% of them loss-making. “Should the market turn negative, the move could be faster and larger due to the large, long positions already in the red,” Citigroup strategist Chris Montagu wrote in a note.
Stocks outside the US were trading in the red, with equities in Europe tumbling 1% and Asian peers down 2%.
European stocks tumbled out of the fate, tracking losses in their Asian counterparts with the prospect of a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve, rising Middle East tensions and patchy Chinese economic data all playing their part. They have, however, since regained some losses. The Stoxx 600 is down 1.0%, after earlier sliding 1.4% and looking at its largest fall this year. All 20 sectors are in the red but basic resources are the worst performers after Chinese retail sales and industrial production rose less than expected in March. US equity futures are slightly lower.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped by the most in eight months, as worries deepened that US monetary policy will remain tighter for longer and the latest slew of data from China failed to spark hopes of an economic recovery. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid more than 2%, the most since Aug. 2. Tech hardware stocks including chipmakers TSMC and Samsung were the biggest drags on the benchmark, which was poised for its fifth-straight daily loss, the worst losing streak since August.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2% to its highest since November, adding to Monday’s post retail-sales gain. The greenback has also bulldozed its way through emerging-market currencies, weakening many through closely-watched levels that forced some officials to step in to stem the losses. The pound is flat after the UK unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. Asian currencies are in focus after China’s fixing surprise paved a way for the yuan to weaken to key 7.30 level, while USD/JPY continues to trend toward 155.
In rates, treasuries fell with US 10-year yields rising 4bps to 4.64% while the UK February jobs report sent 10-year yields to highest levels since November. Fed Chair Powell is slated to participate in a moderated discussion with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada at 1:15pm New York time, with no text expected. Treasury coupon sales this week include $13b 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $23b 5-year TIPS new issue Thursday
In commodities, oil prices erased an earlier gain with WTI crude oil futures down ~0.5%, extending retreat from last week’s highs reached amid escalation of Middle East conflict; Israel has said it will respond to Iran’s weekend attack. Spot gold falls 0.5% to $2,370/oz.
US economic data slate includes March housing starts/building permits, April NY Fed services business activity (8:30am) and March industrial production (9:15am). Fed speakers include Jefferson (9am), Williams (12:30pm), Barkin (1pm), Powell (1:15pm) and Collins (4:30pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,100.00
- STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 498.77
- MXAP down 2.0% to 169.96
- MXAPJ down 2.0% to 518.74
- Nikkei down 1.9% to 38,471.20
- Topix down 2.0% to 2,697.11
- Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 16,248.97
- Shanghai Composite down 1.6% to 3,007.07
- Sensex down 0.7% to 72,898.76
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 7,612.49
- Kospi down 2.3% to 2,609.63
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.44%
- Euro little changed at $1.0614
- Brent Futures up 0.2% to $90.26/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.5% to $2,371.27
- US Dollar Index up 0.12% to 106.33
Top Overnight News
- China’s March economic data disappoints, including retail sales (+3.1% Y/Y vs. the Street +4.8%) and industrial production (+4.5% Y/Y vs. the Street +6%), although GDP for Q1 ran ahead of expectations. RTRS
- China’s President Xi Jinping met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Beijing on Tuesday, saying China’s exports were easing global inflation and the clean energy transition at a time of tension with the EU over trade and the war in Ukraine. FT
- UK wage growth was higher than expected in the three months to February, despite a weaker jobs market in which unemployment edged up, vacancies fell and more people chose not to work or look for work. The Office for National Statistics said average earnings, including bonuses, were 5.6% higher over the period than a year earlier, the same annual growth rate as in the three months to January. Analysts had expected annual growth to slow to 5.5%. FT
- Israel’s response will “send a message”, but not cause casualties (options include hitting a facility in Tehran or launching a cyberattack). WaPo
- Speaker Johnson will put four separate bills on the House floor this week (funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and a ban of TikTok) and a draft of the legislation largely mirrors what was already passed in the Senate. NYT
- UBS’s capital needs may rise by around $20 billion to reach new requirements the government is proposing in the wake of Credit Suisse’s collapse. BBG
- International Paper agreed to buy UK rival DS Smith for £5.8 billion, creating a global leader in packaging. BBG
- The Fed’s Mary Daly stressed there’s no urgency for rate cuts given “remarkable” US growth, a resilient labor market and still-elevated inflation. The “worst thing” the Fed can do is move unnecessarily fast, she said. Jerome Powell and Tiff Macklem speak on the North American outlook later. BBG
- MSFT will invest $1.5B in the UAE AI firm G42, the latest example of the software giant providing capital throughout the AI industry. WSJ
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were lower across the board with global risk appetite sapped by geopolitical concerns related to a potential ‘imminent’ response by Israel against Iran, while markets also digested mixed key releases from China. ASX 200 retreated with selling across all sectors and consumer discretionary front-running the declines. Nikkei 225 was among the worst hit and fell beneath the 38,500 level with the index shedding over 800 points. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood despite better-than-expected Chinese GDP for Q1 which was negated by disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, while property sector woes persisted after home prices further deteriorated and with developer Times China (1233 HK) facing a winding-up petition filed by Hang Seng Bank.
Top Asian News
- Chinese President Xi told German Chancellor Scholz during their meeting in Beijing that bilateral ties will continue to develop as long as both sides respect each other and seek common ground, while he added that they must view and develop bilateral relations in an all-round way from a long-term and strategic perspective.
- China’s stats bureau said economic conditions are still not stable and the external environment is complex, while it added that uncertainty is increasing and that consumer inflation will recover mildly. China’s stats bureau also stated that China’s property market is still in the middle of adjustments.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said won’t comment on forex levels or currency intervention and reiterated that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, while he added that excessive FX volatility is undesirable and is prepared to take all measures on FX.
- Fitch revises outlook for Chinese state banks to Negative from Stable; affirms ratings
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-1.4%), are entirely in the red, continuing the price action seen in Wall St. from the prior session and following a negative handover from APAC trade as geopols remain in focus and China data was mixed. European sectors are lower; Telecoms was initially propped by post-earning strength in Ericsson (+3.5%), though this ultimately faded. Basic Resources underperforms, given weakness in metals prices. For Luxury names, LVMH due to report after the European close. US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.3%) are lower, albeit to a lesser magnitude than European counterparts. A busy earnings slate will provide direction for markets today; United Health, UAL, Bank of America & Morgan Stanley are all due.
Top European News
- ECB’s Rehn says future rate decisions will ensure that policy rates will remain sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. If June assessment confirms inflation convergence towards target, could lower rates. Cut assumes there will be no further setbacks in geopolitics or energy prices. At the moment, there is a divergence between the US and European economy; naturally may take different kinds of decision in the coming period; ECB does not pre-commit to any rate path.
- BoE’s incoming Deputy Governor Lombardelli says decline in inflation is likely to be bumpy; sees two-sided risks. Evidence suggests that Brexit has had a negative economic impact via investment and trade. Inflation may rove more persistent than expected. Wage growth is slowing but remains high. Joins the MPC on July 1st, replacing Broadbent.
- EU leaders are set to revive their capital markets union plan in search for defence funding, according to FT.
- Morgan Stanley expects the ECB to deliver 75bps interest rate cuts in 2024 (prev. 100bps expected)
- Deutsche Bank expects ECB to deliver 75bps of interest rate cuts in 2024 (prev. forecast 125bps)
FX
- USD is firmer vs. all peers as the hawkish Fed repricing/strong US data continues to provide support. DXY has been as high as 106.43 with the next target via the 2nd Nov’23 peak at 106.51.
- EUR/USD clinging onto 1.06 status after printing a 1.0603 low. In a week lacking in key EZ data and ECB speakers continuing to talk up a June cut, it is not obvious to see how price action can reverse.
- GBP is flat vs. the USD and holding up better-than-peers with this morning’s wage metrics potentially overshadowing a larger-than-expected increase in the unemployment rate. 1.2409 is the base for now.
- 154.60 is the high watermark for the USD/JPY as the Fed/BoJ divergence play remains the key guiding force. 155 is the perceived line in the sand for the MoF and speculation continues to mount over an intervention by Tokyo.
- The current risk environment is continuing to act as a drag for the antipodes. AUD/USD is managing to hold above the 0.64 mark with not too much follow-through at the time from Chinese data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1028 vs exp. 7.2475 (prev. 7.0979).
- South Korean FX authority says closely monitoring FX market with caution on currency movement, supply and demand; excessive herd-like behaviour in FX market is undesirable.
Fixed Income
- USTs are contained in a narrow nine tick band that is entirely within Monday’s 107-18 to 108-22 parameters. Newsflow limited thus far as we await Israel’s response to Iran, though the docket ahead is filled with several Fed speakers.
- Bunds have been directionally in-fitting with USTs. Following the German ZEW data, Bunds were pressured by around 15 ticks to a new 131.55 session low, taking it below Monday’s 131.58 base.
- Gilts gapped lower by 18 ticks at the open following the latest labour/wage data, with focus on the hotter wage components; benchmark briefly pared as the internals were digested before ZEW hit and pressured the space again. Overall, Gilts continued to drift to a 96.44 base which marks a contract low and has seen the 10yr yield peak at 2.78%.
- UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.75% 2033 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.4% (prev. 2.97x) and real yield 0.440% (prev. 0.634%)
Commodities
- Crude is subdued and off best levels, but still underpinned by geopolitical risks after reports of a potential ‘imminent’ response by Israel against Iran; Brent June trades between USD 89.82-90.84/bbl range.
- Softer trade across precious metals amid a lack of retaliation by Israel thus far whilst the Dollar also edges higher; XAU sits in a USD 2,363-92/oz range.
- Base metals are lower across the board amid the risk aversion and stronger Dollar. Chinese data overnight was mixed in which Chinese GDP for Q1 topped expectations, but was negated by disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.
- El Nino weather event has ended, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- “Israel sent a message to the countries of the region that responding to the Iranian attack will not endanger the stability of these countries”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- The Israeli war cabinet is weighing a response to the recent Iran attacks; and is to meet again on Tuesday for a third straight day, via the FT
- Iran’s Foreign Minister said in a call with China’s Foreign Minister that Iran is willing to exercise restraint and has no intention of further escalating the situation, according to Chinese state media.
- US officials expect a possible Israeli response to Iran’s attack over the weekend to be limited in scope and most likely involve strikes against Iranian military forces and Iranian-backed proxies outside Iran, according to four US officials cited by NBC News.
- Iraqi PM confirmed Iraq’s interest in obtaining expertise and arms from the US, as well as keenness on security partnership during a meeting with US Defense Secretary Austin, according to Reuters.
- Saudi Arabia acknowledged that it helped defend Israel against Iran whereby Saudi Arabia’s royal family posted on its website about the country’s role in defending Israel against the Iranian barrage, according to Jerusalem Post.
Geopolitics: Other
- US judges North Korea to have the capability to manufacture biological weapons through genetically modified weapons, according to Yonhap.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: March Housing Starts 1.321m, est. 1.49m, prior 1.52m
- 08:30: March Housing Starts -14.7% MoM, est. -2.4%, prior 10.7%
- 08:30: March Building Permits 1.458m, est. 1.51m, prior 1.52m, revised 1.52m
- 08:30: March Building Permits -4.3%MoM, est. -0.9%, prior 1.9%, revised 2.4%
- 09:15: March Capacity Utilization, est. 78.5%, prior 78.3%
- 09:15: March Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
- 09:15: March Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
Central Banks
- 09:00: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks at Monetary Policy Forum
- 12:30: Fed’s Williams Moderates Event w/ François Villeroy de Galhau
- 13:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 13:15: Fed’s Powell Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 16:30: Fed’s Collins Gives Speech on Economy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I picked an eventful couple of weeks in markets to be on holidays. The highlights of my trip were 1) accidentally mixing up my ski pass with one of my twins (he has the same name as me) which nearly caused us both to be booted off the slopes after the cameras picked up a six-year old on a lift with a 49-year old’s pass; 2) it going from freezing to boiling on the same day; 3) a Saharan dust storm covering the skies and slopes with orange sand; and 4) all three kids passing the “first star” stage at ski school albeit via two not passing initially and me having to pay for a couple of extra private lessons to ensure parity and less arguments and fighting within the family. In fact it’s lovely to be back at work and to leave sibling rivalry behind me for a bit.
That said, my first 24 hours back have been far from quiet, with the S&P posting its weakest 2-day run since the regional banking stress last March (-1.20% yesterday after -1.46% on Friday). Equities had initially opened higher in the absence of any immediate escalation in the Middle East, but sentiment turned amid renewed concerns over Israel’s response to Iran’s weekend attack, with the rise in rates also weighing. The sell-off in sovereign bonds received extra momentum from a strong US retail sales print, which took the 10yr Treasury yields (+8.0bps) to their highest level in five months at 4.60%, despite a decent rally later in the US session from a 4.66% peak.
By contrast, when I left for my hols at Easter 10yr US yields were 4.20%. In fact, since 2007 they’ve only been higher than the current level for around 6-weeks straddling October last year. Alongside this we’ve moved from pricing in 2.9 Fed hikes this year just before Easter to only 1.75 as I type this morning. Powell speaks today so we’ll see if he changes anything here.
I continue to believe that it’s going to be incredibly difficult to smoothly land this US economic cycle given we’ve moved from the biggest increase in money supply since WWII to the biggest contraction since the 1930. All with the associated lags. The least likely scenario was always likely to be US growth and inflation moving to trend with anything close to the 6.7 Fed cuts priced in at one point in January. Last year I believed the recession was the most likely outcome but as I said at the start of this year when we changed our view, I think I underestimated the true scale of the stock of stimulus/money still in the system even when the flow turned negative with the tightening of policy. Looser financial conditions since October have exaggerated this and contributed to a boost in activity, inflation and markets this year.
So it’s possible that stimulus/liquidity is still working its way through the system and you can see that with Peter Sidorov’s recent work on credit conditions here and here. Peter’s work suggests that the US has benefited from more muted transmission of rate hikes but that there could still be an air pocket of US liquidity later in the year when we return nearer to the long-term money supply trend and finally remove the excesses created. If that’s correct then maybe cutting rates in preparation of that is actually the correct thing to do. However faced with inflation that is currently accelerating that would be very very difficult for the Fed to communicate and be comfortable doing. The lag of policy is incredibly difficult to assess in real time. So the most likely scenario is that rate cuts are delayed ( DB only have one cut in December for 2024 now. See here for more) but that in itself creates risks that rates will be left restrictive at the point where the boost from the earlier liquidity overhang runs out.
So a textbook perfect soft landing will still be very difficult to achieve in my opinion. Obviously a no landing but with decent economic growth could be fine for equities while it lasts so the above isn’t meant to sound near-term negative but simply to outline the uncertainties that I still think are very large.
The added complication at the moment is the heightened uncertainty in the Middle East. This dominated the wires yesterday, as we saw multiple countries warn Israel against an escalation. For instance, French President Macron said that “We’re going to do everything we can to avoid flare-ups, and try to convince Israel that we shouldn’t respond by escalating, but rather by isolating Iran”. Similarly, UK Foreign Secretary Cameron said that “We’re saying very strongly that we don’t support a retaliatory strike.” And US President Biden said the US “is committed to Israel’s security” and “to a ceasefire that will bring the hostages home and prevent the conflict from spreading beyond what it already has”. Nevertheless, market pricing of geopolitical risk premium began to rise again following an Axios report that Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant told US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin that Israel couldn’t allow ballistic missiles to be launched against it without a response. Later on, CNN reported that Israel’s war cabinet reviewed military plans for a potential response in a meeting on Monday, without clarity on whether a decision had been taken. Oil prices followed the shifting geopolitical sentiment, with Brent crude initially falling more than 1% to below $89/bbl intra-day, but rising to back above $90 by the close, and trading at $90.56 as I type.
Risk assets came under increased pressure following the Axios report, with the S&P 500 down -1.20% by the close. The heightened sense of alert saw the VIX index of volatility spike by another +1.9pts to 19.2, seeing its sharpest two-day rise since the regional banking stress last March. In Israel itself, equities posted further declines, with the TA-35 index down -1.23%, following a modest +0.27% gain on Sunday. By contrast, gold benefited in the risk-off mood (+0.55%), closing at a new record high of $2,357/oz.
The equity decline was led by tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down -1.79% and the Magnificent 7 (-2.44%) seeing its worst day since January. Tesla (-5.59%) extended its YTD decline to -35% amid news that it will cut over 10% of its workforce. But the broad turn in sentiment also saw the three largest mega caps – Microsoft (-1.96%), Apple (-2.19%) and Nvidia (-2.48%) – all post sizeable declines. Amid the outperformers, Goldman Sachs gained +2.92% after its earnings beat expectations. European markets had closed before the worst of the equity sell off, with the STOXX 600 (+0.13%) a little higher on the day. There was a divergence between the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.38%), and other indices including Germany’s DAX (+0.54%) and France’s CAC 40 (+0.43%). Euro Stoxx futures are -1.40% this morning as I type with S&P 500 (-0.28%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.26%) futures lower but not accelerating the losses too much.
Stocks had started Monday on the front foot, in part thanks to a strong US retail sales print that offered a fresh reminder about the strength of the US consumer. It showed retail sales were up +0.7% in March (vs. +0.4% expected), and the previous month was also revised up three-tenths. This also revived fears about a “no landing” though, leading investors to dial back the chances of rate cuts this year. The amount of cuts priced by the Fed’s December meeting came down by -1.8bps to 45bps, and it had moved as low as 37bps intra-day prior to the souring of the geopolitical sentiment.
The retail sales data exacerbated the bond selloff, and the 10yr Treasury yield (+8.0bps) closed at 4.60%, its highest level since November and is further +1bps higher overnight. At the front end, the 2yr yield was up +2.3bps to 4.92%, having been as high as 4.99% at its intraday peak. There were also fresh signs of concern about inflation, with the 2yr US inflation swap (+1.8bps) up to a one-year high of 2.65%.
This morning in Asia equity markets are extending declines. The KOSPI (-2.45%), Nikkei (-2.11%), S&P/ASX 200 (-2.12%) and the Hang Seng (-1.87%) are all seeing major losses. Chinese stocks are also slipping with the CSI (-1.02%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.42%) lower after some mixed data.
The Chinese economy did make a stronger than expected start to the year, offering some relief to officials after they’ve unveiled a raft of fiscal and monetary policy measures to boost the economy. Q1 GDP grew at a +5.3% annual pace, beating analysts’ forecasts of +4.8% and relative to a +5.2% expansion in the previous quarter. On a quarter-by-quarter basis, GDP grew +1.6% in the first quarter (v/s +1.5% expected) following an upwardly revised growth of +1.2% in the prior quarter. However, industrial output for March grew +4.5% y/y missing Bloomberg expectations for a +6.0% increase while retail sales advanced +3.1% y/y, less than market expectations for +4.8% growth. C hinese house prices continued to fall in March, dropping – 2.7% from a year earlier and worse than a -1.9% drop in February, indicating that the nation’s property market is struggling to find a bottom. In addition, the PBoC unexpectedly weakened its yuan defense as it cut the yuan’s fixing by 49 pips to 7.1028 per dollar, its weakest level since March this year amid dollar strength.
In FX, the Japanese yen remains under pressure as it fell to its weakest level since June 1990 yesterday, crossing the 154 mark against the dollar despite repeated warnings from the government over potential currency market intervention. It’s stable overnight however.
Looking back now at yesterday’s other data from the US, the Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -14.3 (vs. -5.2 expected), and there was also an upward move in the prices paid indicator, which rose to an 11-month high of 33.7. Otherwise, the NAHB’s housing market index remained at 51 in April, in line with expectations.
To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, the Fed’s Williams and Barkin, BoE Governor Bailey, the ECB’s Rehn, Villeroy and Vujcic, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Data releases include US industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts and building permits for March, Canada’s CPI for March, UK labour market data for March, and the German ZEW survey for April. Today’s earnings releases include Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Finally, the IMF will be releasing their latest World Economic Outlook.
S&P futures traded modestly in the green, erasing earlier losses and signaling a recovery after the S&P 500 fell more than 1% in the past two sessions, following stronger than expected earnings from index heavyweight UnitedHealth Group which soared 6% after reporting first-quarter profit that beat Wall Street’s expectations and affirmed its outlook for the year, despite the costs associated with a cyberattack on one of its subsidiaries that has roiled the health-care industry; other reporters such as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley also gained. of 8:45am, S&P futures gained 0.3%, after trading down 0.2% earlier this morning; Nasdaq futures also reversed an earlier loss and traded about 0.2% higher. Meanwhile, loans continued their ascent, with 10Y yields rising as highas 4.65% before modestly reversing, while 2-year Treasuries approached 5%. The dollar advanced for a fifth day, its longest run since January.
In premarket trading, Tesla fell as much as 2.6% in premarket trading as two of the electric carmaker’s top executives left in the carmaker’s largest-ever round of job cuts. Morgan Stanley rose 3% in the premarket after reporting wealth management net revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Its equities trading revenue was also ahead of consensus. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- UnitedHealth Group rises 6% after reporting first-quarter profit that beat Wall Street’s expectations and affirmed its outlook for the year, despite the costs associated with a cyberattack on one of its subsidiaries that has roiled the health-care industry.
- Hims & Hers declines 5% after Jefferies downgraded the telehealth firm to hold, saying expectations on the stock are now at a “more appropriate level.”
- Intra-Cellular Therapies climbs 18% after posting positive top-line results from a late-stage trial of its investigative treatment for depression.
- Live Nation drops 9% after Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice was preparing to file an antitrust complaint against the company over its Ticketmaster business, citing three people familiar with the matter.
- Macatawa Bank jumps 38% following a deal that will see Wintrust Financial acquire it for about $510.3m, or $14.85 a share, in an all-stock transaction.
- Morgan Stanley rises 2% after posting a 1Q revenue beat.
Markets have slumped in recent days as economic data continues to underscores US economic strength, while conflict in the Mideast fans the risk of higher energy prices and inflation, frustrating hopes for imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. With earnings season underway, there’s growing concern that the mega-cap leaders will struggle to justify their steep valuations.
“Markets are looking for an excuse to take a breather and the combination of rising geopolitical risk alongside inflation fear and Fed anxiety is providing some decent ground for that,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management.
As noted yesterday, traders are no longer fully pricing in a Fed rate cut before November, while UBS Group AG strategists warned there may be no pivot at all and that US policymakers will instead embark on a hiking cycle. Treasury 10-year yields have spiked more than 10 basis points to 4.65% since the start of the week. With stocks and bonds coming under pressure, the dollar pushed higher as investors piled into haven assets.
Recent data “has given the Fed pause for thought and the market has repriced quite significantly,” said Daniel Loughney, head of fixed income at Mediolanum International Funds. “We have a powerful dynamic whereby US growth and inflation dynamics are mingling with big-picture commodity and supply chain-related inflationary pressures.”
Meanwhile on the geopolitical front, top Israeli military officials have vowed to respond to Iran’s missile attack despite diplomatic calls for restraint.
This year’s record rally has left markets especially vulnerable to a pullback, according to top Wall Street strategists. A survey from Bank of America Corp. found that investor allocation to equities is at the highest in over two years. Citigroup strategists counted $52 billion of long positions on the S&P 500, 88% of them loss-making. “Should the market turn negative, the move could be faster and larger due to the large, long positions already in the red,” Citigroup strategist Chris Montagu wrote in a note.
Stocks outside the US were trading in the red, with equities in Europe tumbling 1% and Asian peers down 2%.
European stocks tumbled out of the fate, tracking losses in their Asian counterparts with the prospect of a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve, rising Middle East tensions and patchy Chinese economic data all playing their part. They have, however, since regained some losses. The Stoxx 600 is down 1.0%, after earlier sliding 1.4% and looking at its largest fall this year. All 20 sectors are in the red but basic resources are the worst performers after Chinese retail sales and industrial production rose less than expected in March. US equity futures are slightly lower.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped by the most in eight months, as worries deepened that US monetary policy will remain tighter for longer and the latest slew of data from China failed to spark hopes of an economic recovery. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid more than 2%, the most since Aug. 2. Tech hardware stocks including chipmakers TSMC and Samsung were the biggest drags on the benchmark, which was poised for its fifth-straight daily loss, the worst losing streak since August.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2% to its highest since November, adding to Monday’s post retail-sales gain. The greenback has also bulldozed its way through emerging-market currencies, weakening many through closely-watched levels that forced some officials to step in to stem the losses. The pound is flat after the UK unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. Asian currencies are in focus after China’s fixing surprise paved a way for the yuan to weaken to key 7.30 level, while USD/JPY continues to trend toward 155.
In rates, treasuries fell with US 10-year yields rising 4bps to 4.64% while the UK February jobs report sent 10-year yields to highest levels since November. Fed Chair Powell is slated to participate in a moderated discussion with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada at 1:15pm New York time, with no text expected. Treasury coupon sales this week include $13b 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $23b 5-year TIPS new issue Thursday
In commodities, oil prices erased an earlier gain with WTI crude oil futures down ~0.5%, extending retreat from last week’s highs reached amid escalation of Middle East conflict; Israel has said it will respond to Iran’s weekend attack. Spot gold falls 0.5% to $2,370/oz.
US economic data slate includes March housing starts/building permits, April NY Fed services business activity (8:30am) and March industrial production (9:15am). Fed speakers include Jefferson (9am), Williams (12:30pm), Barkin (1pm), Powell (1:15pm) and Collins (4:30pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,100.00
- STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 498.77
- MXAP down 2.0% to 169.96
- MXAPJ down 2.0% to 518.74
- Nikkei down 1.9% to 38,471.20
- Topix down 2.0% to 2,697.11
- Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 16,248.97
- Shanghai Composite down 1.6% to 3,007.07
- Sensex down 0.7% to 72,898.76
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 7,612.49
- Kospi down 2.3% to 2,609.63
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.44%
- Euro little changed at $1.0614
- Brent Futures up 0.2% to $90.26/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.5% to $2,371.27
- US Dollar Index up 0.12% to 106.33
Top Overnight News
- China’s March economic data disappoints, including retail sales (+3.1% Y/Y vs. the Street +4.8%) and industrial production (+4.5% Y/Y vs. the Street +6%), although GDP for Q1 ran ahead of expectations. RTRS
- China’s President Xi Jinping met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Beijing on Tuesday, saying China’s exports were easing global inflation and the clean energy transition at a time of tension with the EU over trade and the war in Ukraine. FT
- UK wage growth was higher than expected in the three months to February, despite a weaker jobs market in which unemployment edged up, vacancies fell and more people chose not to work or look for work. The Office for National Statistics said average earnings, including bonuses, were 5.6% higher over the period than a year earlier, the same annual growth rate as in the three months to January. Analysts had expected annual growth to slow to 5.5%. FT
- Israel’s response will “send a message”, but not cause casualties (options include hitting a facility in Tehran or launching a cyberattack). WaPo
- Speaker Johnson will put four separate bills on the House floor this week (funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and a ban of TikTok) and a draft of the legislation largely mirrors what was already passed in the Senate. NYT
- UBS’s capital needs may rise by around $20 billion to reach new requirements the government is proposing in the wake of Credit Suisse’s collapse. BBG
- International Paper agreed to buy UK rival DS Smith for £5.8 billion, creating a global leader in packaging. BBG
- The Fed’s Mary Daly stressed there’s no urgency for rate cuts given “remarkable” US growth, a resilient labor market and still-elevated inflation. The “worst thing” the Fed can do is move unnecessarily fast, she said. Jerome Powell and Tiff Macklem speak on the North American outlook later. BBG
- MSFT will invest $1.5B in the UAE AI firm G42, the latest example of the software giant providing capital throughout the AI industry. WSJ
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were lower across the board with global risk appetite sapped by geopolitical concerns related to a potential ‘imminent’ response by Israel against Iran, while markets also digested mixed key releases from China. ASX 200 retreated with selling across all sectors and consumer discretionary front-running the declines. Nikkei 225 was among the worst hit and fell beneath the 38,500 level with the index shedding over 800 points. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood despite better-than-expected Chinese GDP for Q1 which was negated by disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, while property sector woes persisted after home prices further deteriorated and with developer Times China (1233 HK) facing a winding-up petition filed by Hang Seng Bank.
Top Asian News
- Chinese President Xi told German Chancellor Scholz during their meeting in Beijing that bilateral ties will continue to develop as long as both sides respect each other and seek common ground, while he added that they must view and develop bilateral relations in an all-round way from a long-term and strategic perspective.
- China’s stats bureau said economic conditions are still not stable and the external environment is complex, while it added that uncertainty is increasing and that consumer inflation will recover mildly. China’s stats bureau also stated that China’s property market is still in the middle of adjustments.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said won’t comment on forex levels or currency intervention and reiterated that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, while he added that excessive FX volatility is undesirable and is prepared to take all measures on FX.
- Fitch revises outlook for Chinese state banks to Negative from Stable; affirms ratings
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-1.4%), are entirely in the red, continuing the price action seen in Wall St. from the prior session and following a negative handover from APAC trade as geopols remain in focus and China data was mixed. European sectors are lower; Telecoms was initially propped by post-earning strength in Ericsson (+3.5%), though this ultimately faded. Basic Resources underperforms, given weakness in metals prices. For Luxury names, LVMH due to report after the European close. US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.3%) are lower, albeit to a lesser magnitude than European counterparts. A busy earnings slate will provide direction for markets today; United Health, UAL, Bank of America & Morgan Stanley are all due.
Top European News
- ECB’s Rehn says future rate decisions will ensure that policy rates will remain sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. If June assessment confirms inflation convergence towards target, could lower rates. Cut assumes there will be no further setbacks in geopolitics or energy prices. At the moment, there is a divergence between the US and European economy; naturally may take different kinds of decision in the coming period; ECB does not pre-commit to any rate path.
- BoE’s incoming Deputy Governor Lombardelli says decline in inflation is likely to be bumpy; sees two-sided risks. Evidence suggests that Brexit has had a negative economic impact via investment and trade. Inflation may rove more persistent than expected. Wage growth is slowing but remains high. Joins the MPC on July 1st, replacing Broadbent.
- EU leaders are set to revive their capital markets union plan in search for defence funding, according to FT.
- Morgan Stanley expects the ECB to deliver 75bps interest rate cuts in 2024 (prev. 100bps expected)
- Deutsche Bank expects ECB to deliver 75bps of interest rate cuts in 2024 (prev. forecast 125bps)
FX
- USD is firmer vs. all peers as the hawkish Fed repricing/strong US data continues to provide support. DXY has been as high as 106.43 with the next target via the 2nd Nov’23 peak at 106.51.
- EUR/USD clinging onto 1.06 status after printing a 1.0603 low. In a week lacking in key EZ data and ECB speakers continuing to talk up a June cut, it is not obvious to see how price action can reverse.
- GBP is flat vs. the USD and holding up better-than-peers with this morning’s wage metrics potentially overshadowing a larger-than-expected increase in the unemployment rate. 1.2409 is the base for now.
- 154.60 is the high watermark for the USD/JPY as the Fed/BoJ divergence play remains the key guiding force. 155 is the perceived line in the sand for the MoF and speculation continues to mount over an intervention by Tokyo.
- The current risk environment is continuing to act as a drag for the antipodes. AUD/USD is managing to hold above the 0.64 mark with not too much follow-through at the time from Chinese data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1028 vs exp. 7.2475 (prev. 7.0979).
- South Korean FX authority says closely monitoring FX market with caution on currency movement, supply and demand; excessive herd-like behaviour in FX market is undesirable.
Fixed Income
- USTs are contained in a narrow nine tick band that is entirely within Monday’s 107-18 to 108-22 parameters. Newsflow limited thus far as we await Israel’s response to Iran, though the docket ahead is filled with several Fed speakers.
- Bunds have been directionally in-fitting with USTs. Following the German ZEW data, Bunds were pressured by around 15 ticks to a new 131.55 session low, taking it below Monday’s 131.58 base.
- Gilts gapped lower by 18 ticks at the open following the latest labour/wage data, with focus on the hotter wage components; benchmark briefly pared as the internals were digested before ZEW hit and pressured the space again. Overall, Gilts continued to drift to a 96.44 base which marks a contract low and has seen the 10yr yield peak at 2.78%.
- UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.75% 2033 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.4% (prev. 2.97x) and real yield 0.440% (prev. 0.634%)
Commodities
- Crude is subdued and off best levels, but still underpinned by geopolitical risks after reports of a potential ‘imminent’ response by Israel against Iran; Brent June trades between USD 89.82-90.84/bbl range.
- Softer trade across precious metals amid a lack of retaliation by Israel thus far whilst the Dollar also edges higher; XAU sits in a USD 2,363-92/oz range.
- Base metals are lower across the board amid the risk aversion and stronger Dollar. Chinese data overnight was mixed in which Chinese GDP for Q1 topped expectations, but was negated by disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.
- El Nino weather event has ended, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- “Israel sent a message to the countries of the region that responding to the Iranian attack will not endanger the stability of these countries”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- The Israeli war cabinet is weighing a response to the recent Iran attacks; and is to meet again on Tuesday for a third straight day, via the FT
- Iran’s Foreign Minister said in a call with China’s Foreign Minister that Iran is willing to exercise restraint and has no intention of further escalating the situation, according to Chinese state media.
- US officials expect a possible Israeli response to Iran’s attack over the weekend to be limited in scope and most likely involve strikes against Iranian military forces and Iranian-backed proxies outside Iran, according to four US officials cited by NBC News.
- Iraqi PM confirmed Iraq’s interest in obtaining expertise and arms from the US, as well as keenness on security partnership during a meeting with US Defense Secretary Austin, according to Reuters.
- Saudi Arabia acknowledged that it helped defend Israel against Iran whereby Saudi Arabia’s royal family posted on its website about the country’s role in defending Israel against the Iranian barrage, according to Jerusalem Post.
Geopolitics: Other
- US judges North Korea to have the capability to manufacture biological weapons through genetically modified weapons, according to Yonhap.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: March Housing Starts 1.321m, est. 1.49m, prior 1.52m
- 08:30: March Housing Starts -14.7% MoM, est. -2.4%, prior 10.7%
- 08:30: March Building Permits 1.458m, est. 1.51m, prior 1.52m, revised 1.52m
- 08:30: March Building Permits -4.3%MoM, est. -0.9%, prior 1.9%, revised 2.4%
- 09:15: March Capacity Utilization, est. 78.5%, prior 78.3%
- 09:15: March Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
- 09:15: March Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
Central Banks
- 09:00: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks at Monetary Policy Forum
- 12:30: Fed’s Williams Moderates Event w/ François Villeroy de Galhau
- 13:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 13:15: Fed’s Powell Participates in Moderated Q&A
- 16:30: Fed’s Collins Gives Speech on Economy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I picked an eventful couple of weeks in markets to be on holidays. The highlights of my trip were 1) accidentally mixing up my ski pass with one of my twins (he has the same name as me) which nearly caused us both to be booted off the slopes after the cameras picked up a six-year old on a lift with a 49-year old’s pass; 2) it going from freezing to boiling on the same day; 3) a Saharan dust storm covering the skies and slopes with orange sand; and 4) all three kids passing the “first star” stage at ski school albeit via two not passing initially and me having to pay for a couple of extra private lessons to ensure parity and less arguments and fighting within the family. In fact it’s lovely to be back at work and to leave sibling rivalry behind me for a bit.
That said, my first 24 hours back have been far from quiet, with the S&P posting its weakest 2-day run since the regional banking stress last March (-1.20% yesterday after -1.46% on Friday). Equities had initially opened higher in the absence of any immediate escalation in the Middle East, but sentiment turned amid renewed concerns over Israel’s response to Iran’s weekend attack, with the rise in rates also weighing. The sell-off in sovereign bonds received extra momentum from a strong US retail sales print, which took the 10yr Treasury yields (+8.0bps) to their highest level in five months at 4.60%, despite a decent rally later in the US session from a 4.66% peak.
By contrast, when I left for my hols at Easter 10yr US yields were 4.20%. In fact, since 2007 they’ve only been higher than the current level for around 6-weeks straddling October last year. Alongside this we’ve moved from pricing in 2.9 Fed hikes this year just before Easter to only 1.75 as I type this morning. Powell speaks today so we’ll see if he changes anything here.
I continue to believe that it’s going to be incredibly difficult to smoothly land this US economic cycle given we’ve moved from the biggest increase in money supply since WWII to the biggest contraction since the 1930. All with the associated lags. The least likely scenario was always likely to be US growth and inflation moving to trend with anything close to the 6.7 Fed cuts priced in at one point in January. Last year I believed the recession was the most likely outcome but as I said at the start of this year when we changed our view, I think I underestimated the true scale of the stock of stimulus/money still in the system even when the flow turned negative with the tightening of policy. Looser financial conditions since October have exaggerated this and contributed to a boost in activity, inflation and markets this year.
So it’s possible that stimulus/liquidity is still working its way through the system and you can see that with Peter Sidorov’s recent work on credit conditions here and here. Peter’s work suggests that the US has benefited from more muted transmission of rate hikes but that there could still be an air pocket of US liquidity later in the year when we return nearer to the long-term money supply trend and finally remove the excesses created. If that’s correct then maybe cutting rates in preparation of that is actually the correct thing to do. However faced with inflation that is currently accelerating that would be very very difficult for the Fed to communicate and be comfortable doing. The lag of policy is incredibly difficult to assess in real time. So the most likely scenario is that rate cuts are delayed ( DB only have one cut in December for 2024 now. See here for more) but that in itself creates risks that rates will be left restrictive at the point where the boost from the earlier liquidity overhang runs out.
So a textbook perfect soft landing will still be very difficult to achieve in my opinion. Obviously a no landing but with decent economic growth could be fine for equities while it lasts so the above isn’t meant to sound near-term negative but simply to outline the uncertainties that I still think are very large.
The added complication at the moment is the heightened uncertainty in the Middle East. This dominated the wires yesterday, as we saw multiple countries warn Israel against an escalation. For instance, French President Macron said that “We’re going to do everything we can to avoid flare-ups, and try to convince Israel that we shouldn’t respond by escalating, but rather by isolating Iran”. Similarly, UK Foreign Secretary Cameron said that “We’re saying very strongly that we don’t support a retaliatory strike.” And US President Biden said the US “is committed to Israel’s security” and “to a ceasefire that will bring the hostages home and prevent the conflict from spreading beyond what it already has”. Nevertheless, market pricing of geopolitical risk premium began to rise again following an Axios report that Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant told US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin that Israel couldn’t allow ballistic missiles to be launched against it without a response. Later on, CNN reported that Israel’s war cabinet reviewed military plans for a potential response in a meeting on Monday, without clarity on whether a decision had been taken. Oil prices followed the shifting geopolitical sentiment, with Brent crude initially falling more than 1% to below $89/bbl intra-day, but rising to back above $90 by the close, and trading at $90.56 as I type.
Risk assets came under increased pressure following the Axios report, with the S&P 500 down -1.20% by the close. The heightened sense of alert saw the VIX index of volatility spike by another +1.9pts to 19.2, seeing its sharpest two-day rise since the regional banking stress last March. In Israel itself, equities posted further declines, with the TA-35 index down -1.23%, following a modest +0.27% gain on Sunday. By contrast, gold benefited in the risk-off mood (+0.55%), closing at a new record high of $2,357/oz.
The equity decline was led by tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down -1.79% and the Magnificent 7 (-2.44%) seeing its worst day since January. Tesla (-5.59%) extended its YTD decline to -35% amid news that it will cut over 10% of its workforce. But the broad turn in sentiment also saw the three largest mega caps – Microsoft (-1.96%), Apple (-2.19%) and Nvidia (-2.48%) – all post sizeable declines. Amid the outperformers, Goldman Sachs gained +2.92% after its earnings beat expectations. European markets had closed before the worst of the equity sell off, with the STOXX 600 (+0.13%) a little higher on the day. There was a divergence between the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.38%), and other indices including Germany’s DAX (+0.54%) and France’s CAC 40 (+0.43%). Euro Stoxx futures are -1.40% this morning as I type with S&P 500 (-0.28%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.26%) futures lower but not accelerating the losses too much.
Stocks had started Monday on the front foot, in part thanks to a strong US retail sales print that offered a fresh reminder about the strength of the US consumer. It showed retail sales were up +0.7% in March (vs. +0.4% expected), and the previous month was also revised up three-tenths. This also revived fears about a “no landing” though, leading investors to dial back the chances of rate cuts this year. The amount of cuts priced by the Fed’s December meeting came down by -1.8bps to 45bps, and it had moved as low as 37bps intra-day prior to the souring of the geopolitical sentiment.
The retail sales data exacerbated the bond selloff, and the 10yr Treasury yield (+8.0bps) closed at 4.60%, its highest level since November and is further +1bps higher overnight. At the front end, the 2yr yield was up +2.3bps to 4.92%, having been as high as 4.99% at its intraday peak. There were also fresh signs of concern about inflation, with the 2yr US inflation swap (+1.8bps) up to a one-year high of 2.65%.
This morning in Asia equity markets are extending declines. The KOSPI (-2.45%), Nikkei (-2.11%), S&P/ASX 200 (-2.12%) and the Hang Seng (-1.87%) are all seeing major losses. Chinese stocks are also slipping with the CSI (-1.02%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.42%) lower after some mixed data.
The Chinese economy did make a stronger than expected start to the year, offering some relief to officials after they’ve unveiled a raft of fiscal and monetary policy measures to boost the economy. Q1 GDP grew at a +5.3% annual pace, beating analysts’ forecasts of +4.8% and relative to a +5.2% expansion in the previous quarter. On a quarter-by-quarter basis, GDP grew +1.6% in the first quarter (v/s +1.5% expected) following an upwardly revised growth of +1.2% in the prior quarter. However, industrial output for March grew +4.5% y/y missing Bloomberg expectations for a +6.0% increase while retail sales advanced +3.1% y/y, less than market expectations for +4.8% growth. C hinese house prices continued to fall in March, dropping – 2.7% from a year earlier and worse than a -1.9% drop in February, indicating that the nation’s property market is struggling to find a bottom. In addition, the PBoC unexpectedly weakened its yuan defense as it cut the yuan’s fixing by 49 pips to 7.1028 per dollar, its weakest level since March this year amid dollar strength.
In FX, the Japanese yen remains under pressure as it fell to its weakest level since June 1990 yesterday, crossing the 154 mark against the dollar despite repeated warnings from the government over potential currency market intervention. It’s stable overnight however.
Looking back now at yesterday’s other data from the US, the Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -14.3 (vs. -5.2 expected), and there was also an upward move in the prices paid indicator, which rose to an 11-month high of 33.7. Otherwise, the NAHB’s housing market index remained at 51 in April, in line with expectations.
To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, the Fed’s Williams and Barkin, BoE Governor Bailey, the ECB’s Rehn, Villeroy and Vujcic, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Data releases include US industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts and building permits for March, Canada’s CPI for March, UK labour market data for March, and the German ZEW survey for April. Today’s earnings releases include Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Finally, the IMF will be releasing their latest World Economic Outlook.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Sentiment hit as markets await a Israel response; mixed China data factored – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 01:25 AM
- The S&P 500 posted its largest two-day decline in more than a year with the index down 2.6% since Friday.
- APAC stocks were lower amid concerns related to a potential ‘imminent’ response by Israel against Iran, while markets also digested mixed data from China.
- Better-than-expected Chinese GDP for Q1 was negated by disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.
- European equity futures indicate a negative open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.2% after the cash market closed up 0.6% on Monday.
- DXY has gained a firmer footing on a 106 handle, EUR/USD moved closer to the 106 mark, antipodeans lag.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, ZEW, UK Jobs, Canadian & NZ CPI, Fed’s Daly, Jefferson, Williams, Barkin, Powell, ECB’s Rehn, BoE’s Bailey, Lombardelli & BoC’s Macklem, IMF WEO, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Supply from Netherlands & UK, Earnings from LVMH, United Health, UAL, Bank of America & Morgan Stanley.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks continued to sell off which saw the S&P 500 post its largest two-day decline in more than a year with the index down 2.6% since Friday and finished beneath its 50DMA for the first time in five months. Stock futures had initially attempted a recovery after geopolitical hedges from the weekend were unwound, although the risk-off conditions were then renewed and stocks retreated throughout the session amid reports that Israel was working on a retaliation which an official said could be ‘imminent’. This supported gold, oil and haven currencies, while Treasuries were pressured after better-than-expected Retail Sales added to the signals of a hot US economy.
- SPX -1.20% AT 5,062, NDX -1.65% AT 17,707, DJI -0.65% AT 37,735, RUT -1.37% AT 1,976.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Daly (voter) said recent inflation data was not surprising and inflation bumps along the way aren’t particularly surprising, while she said don’t want to end up with a too-strong or too-weak policy response and that the worst thing to do is act urgently when urgency isn’t necessary. Daly also stated that there is no urgency to cut rates and progress on inflation was significant but still not there yet.
- US House Republicans plan to try to pass four bills this week to send aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, while the bills will include a ban on TikTok and to sell off seized Russian assets, according to sources cited by Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman. US House Speaker Johnson later confirmed the House will consider separate bills this week to fund Israel, support Ukraine, strengthen allies in the Indo-Pacific, and measures to boost national security, while he added that the voting could come on Friday evening and will honour the 72-hour rule.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were lower across the board with global risk appetite sapped by geopolitical concerns related to a potential ‘imminent’ response by Israel against Iran, while markets also digested mixed key releases from China.
- ASX 200 retreated with selling across all sectors and consumer discretionary front-running the declines.
- Nikkei 225 was among the worst hit and fell beneath the 38,500 level with the index shedding over 800 points.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood despite better-than-expected Chinese GDP for Q1 which was negated by disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, while property sector woes persisted after home prices further deteriorated and with developer Times China (1233 HK) facing a winding-up petition filed by Hang Seng Bank.
- US equity futures (ES -0.2%) remained subdued after the losses on Wall St where the S&P 500 registered its worst two-day performance in over a year and dipped beneath its 50DMA, while participants look ahead to the looming pick up in earnings releases.
- European equity futures indicate a negative open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.2% after the cash market closed up 0.6% on Monday.
FX
- DXY climbed to a 5-month high after the recent hot US Retail Sales data, while there were comments from Fed’s Daly who stated that recent inflation data was not surprising and there is no urgency to cut rates.
- EUR/USD remained subdued against the dollar with the single currency not helped by recent dovish ECB rhetoric.
- GBP/USD printed fresh YTD lows and continued yesterday’s pullback from resistance at the 1.2500 level.
- USD/JPY traded at the 154.00 handle after yield differentials recently widened on the US Retail Sales data.
- Antipodeans declined owing to the risk-off mood and with CNH pressured following a weaker PBoC fix.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1028 vs exp. 7.2475 (prev. 7.0979).
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures partially nursed yesterday’s losses after tumbling post-US Retail Sales.
- Bund futures clawed back some of the recently lost ground and briefly reclaimed the 132.00 level.
- 10-year JGB futures traded subdued after recent selling pressure in global peers and were only briefly supported by stronger results at the enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated JGBs.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were underpinned by geopolitical risks after reports of a potential ‘imminent’ response by Israel against Iran.
- US oil output from top shale-producing regions is to climb marginally in May to the highest since December 2023, according to EIA.
- US will not renew the temporary license that eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sector unless progress is made by President Maduro, according to a US State Department spokesperson.
- Spot gold held on to the prior day’s gains after benefitting from a haven bid, while Citi was bullish on gold in which it projected prices to reach USD 3,000/oz over the next 6-18 months and expects gold trading to regularly test and breach USD 2,500/oz in H2 this year.
- Copper futures pulled back from the prior day’s best levels amid the risk-aversion and after mixed Chinese data.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was mildly pressured alongside the risk-off mood and breached the USD 63,000 level to the downside.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese President Xi told German Chancellor Scholz during their meeting in Beijing that bilateral ties will continue to develop as long as both sides respect each other and seek common ground, while he added that they must view and develop bilateral relations in an all-round way from a long-term and strategic perspective.
- China’s stats bureau said economic conditions are still not stable and the external environment is complex, while it added that uncertainty is increasing and that consumer inflation will recover mildly. China’s stats bureau also stated that China’s property market is still in the middle of adjustments.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said won’t comment on forex levels or currency intervention and reiterated that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, while he added that excessive FX volatility is undesirable and is prepared to take all measures on FX.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese GDP QQ (Q1) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.0%)
- Chinese GDP YY (Q1) 5.3% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 5.2%)
- Chinese Industrial Production YY (Mar) 4.5% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 7.0%)
- Chinese Retail Sales YY (Mar) 3.1% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 5.5%)
- Chinese House Prices YY (Mar) -2.2% (Prev. -1.4%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu asked defence forces to provide a target of options that would “send a message” but not cause casualties to respond to Iran, while options include a potential strike on a facility in Tehran or a cyber-attack, according to WaPo citing sources.
- Israeli Airforce has completed its preparation for an imminent attack against Iran and the Israeli war cabinet decided in its Monday session to give a “clear and strong” response to Iran’s attack, in coordination with the US, according to a report by Israel’s Channel 12. Furthermore, an Israeli official also said that Israel’s response to the Iranian attack may be “imminent”, according to NBC News.
- Israel’s military chief of staff said there will be a response to Iran’s launch of many missiles and drones towards Israeli territory.
- Israel’s objective is to hurt Iran without causing an all-out war and wants to embark on action against Iran coordinated with the US, according to Israel’s Channel 12 News following the cabinet meeting.
- Israeli army spokesman said Defence Minister Galant discussed preparations to carry out the evacuation of civilians in preparation for the ground operation in Rafah, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli army spokesman said a Rafah operation is still on the table and they must still complete it successfully. It was also reported that an Israeli official said there is not even a single clause in which Hamas approves or accepts the position of the mediators in regards to a hostage deal, according to Axios.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister said they warned Washington that if the Israeli entity embarks on any adventure, their response will be faster, stronger and broader, according to Al Jazeera. It was also reported that Iran’s Foreign Minister said in a call with China’s Foreign Minister that Iran is willing to exercise restraint and has no intention of further escalating the situation, according to Chinese state media.
- Iranian official said Iran’s response will come within seconds if Israel makes any mistake, according to Al Arabiya.
- Iranian official said they are ready for the second level of response through weapons that have not been previously used in the conflict with the Israeli entity, while the official added they do not want war, but are ready for it if it is imposed on them and their options are wide. Furthermore, the official said they have the full will to respond militarily to the Israeli entity again, but in a stronger way and that the Israeli entity must know that crazy and bullying behaviour does not work with a country like Iran, according to Al Jazeera.
- Iran’s IRGC commander said in the new equation, every time Israel attacks their interests, assets, personalities or citizens, Iran will hit back from its soil, while Israel’s Defence Minister said Israel won’t accept an equation in which Iran responds with a direct attack every time Israel strikes targets in Syria, according to BBC correspondent Kasra Naji on X.
- US President Biden said the US is committed to Israeli security, while the State Department said the US is still pursuing a hostage deal that would allow an immediate ceasefire. Furthermore, the State Department said Israel has moved a significant way in submitting the proposal rejected by Hamas and that Hamas is currently the barrier and obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza.
- US official said Israel’s possible response does not aim to escalate, but rather to make Iran understand Israel’s ability to reach anywhere, while Israel may resort to striking targets deep inside Iran, according to Al Jazeera.
- US officials expect a possible Israeli response to Iran’s attack over the weekend to be limited in scope and most likely involve strikes against Iranian military forces and Iranian-backed proxies outside Iran, according to four US officials cited by NBC News.
- US Pentagon spokesperson said no specifics were given by Iran to the US on the timing or details of their attack, while the US does not seek conflict with Iran.
- Iraqi PM confirmed Iraq’s interest in obtaining expertise and arms from the US, as well as keenness on security partnership during a meeting with US Defense Secretary Austin, according to Reuters.
- Saudi Arabia acknowledged that it helped defend Israel against Iran whereby Saudi Arabia’s royal family posted on its website about the country’s role in defending Israel against the Iranian barrage, according to Jerusalem Post.
OTHER
- Russia and Ukraine negotiated with Turkey regarding a deal to ensure the safety of merchant shipping in the Black Sea which Turkey was due to announce although Ukraine pulled away from the deal at the last minute.
- German Chancellor Scholz plans to urge Chinese President Xi to scale back the economic support China is giving Russia and pressure Moscow to take part in peace talks on Ukraine with the aim of settling the conflict on terms acceptable to Kyiv, according to WSJ.
- US Treasury imposed sanctions on 12 Belarus entities and 10 individuals citing support for the Russian war in Ukraine.
- US judges North Korea to have the capability to manufacture biological weapons through genetically modified weapons, according to Yonhap.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- EU leaders are set to revive their capital markets union plan in search for defence funding, according to FT.
3C ASIA AFFAIRS/
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 50.38 PTS OR 1.65% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 351.49 PTS OR 2.12% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 761.60 PTS OR 1.94% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.84%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.23786//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2676 /Oil UP TO 85.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 91.30/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
Weak internal demand forces the PBOC to lower the yuan value. Production also disappoints in this flurry of economic data
(zerohedge)
Yuan Weakens After ‘Unbalanced’ Chinese Economy Sees GDP Beat In Q1 But Domestic Consumption, Production Disappoint
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 10:40 PM
China’s economic growth beat expectations in Q1, rising +5.3% YoY – considerably stronger than the +4.8% consensus, and inching ahead of Q4’s +5.2% YoY growth.
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, that this is the first time the market compares two periods of economic growth without China’z Zero-COVID policy’s impact, and overall, as we detail below, economic activity data in March overall missed expectations.
- Industrial production rose 4.5% in March from a year earlier (below economists’ forecast of 6%).
- Industrial output rose 6.1% for the first quarter (below the 7.0% in February).
- Retail sales climbed 3.1%, also disappointing (versus an expected 4.8% gain) – domestic consumption is still weak amid deflation pressure and after imports shrank during the month.
- Investment flows were mixed with Property investment continuing to slide (down 9.5%, worst since December, and considerably worse than the 9.2% expected)…
- …but broad-based fixed-asset investment expanded 4.5% in the first three months (better than the 4% increase projected by economists).
- Finally, the surveyed jobless rate in March declined to 5.2% from 5.3% in February.
Source: Bloomberg
Simply put, China’s economic recovery has been unbalanced.
As Bloomberg reports, manufacturing is holding up, thanks to resilient overseas demand and Beijing’s efforts to cushion the blow from US trade restrictions by developing advanced technologies at home.
But Chinese consumers have been slow to recover their appetite for spending, amid a prolonged real estate downturn that’s weighing on household and business confidence.
Factory prices have been in deflation for more than a year, reflecting anemic domestic demand.
The central bank on Monday kept the rate of its one-year medium-term lending facility unchanged, and drained cash on net from the banking system via the tool for a second straight month. The PBOC cut its reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50 basis points in February – a move that allows extra lending – and said there’s room for more cuts.
But China has reasons to be cautious in any monetary easing, since widening the yield gap with the US risks adding to downward pressure on the yuan, which is weakening after the data…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, China unexpectedly weakened its yuan defense as pressure from a resurgent dollar and poor sentiment pressured it toward a policy red line. Specifically, the PBOC set a weaker daily reference rate for the managed currency, implying some flexibility for it to depreciate alongside regional peers amid broad strength in the dollar.
“The PBOC is bowing to reality, with dollar broadly higher and onshore dollar demand surging,” said Richard Franulovich, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Westpac Banking Corp.
“They obviously want to control and contain the move though, so they are guiding yuan lower in a moderate and steady fashion.”
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, investors are closely watching one major government effort to boost domestic demand this year: a trade-in program that will encourage businesses to upgrade their machinery and households to buy new cars, refrigerators or washing machines. Shares of Chinese home-appliance makers jumped last week after officials vowed “strong” fiscal support for the plan.
The degree of government support for households and businesses to spend at home will likely depend on how Chinese firms fare on international markets, Goldman Sachs economists led by Hui Shan wrote in a note last week.
“If external demand is strong, then less domestic stimulus is needed,” they wrote.
“If the property market continues to deteriorate, then more easing measures will be introduced.”
The Goldman team raised their growth forecast, predicting the 5% target will be met, and said the government doesn’t seem keen to significantly exceed it.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
Germany going nuts!
(zerohedge)
Transport Minister Threatens Germans With “Indefinite Weekend Driving Ban” To Meet Mandated Emissions Targets
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 06:30 AM
This story has even made it into the Anglophone press, so you know it’s a big deal: “German transport minister warns of weekend driving ban,” says The Telegraph. “German minister threatens ‘indefinite driving bans’ on weekends,” proclaims Politico. “German transport minister under fire for weekend driving ban threat,” declares Reuters.
Volker Wissing does not really want to ban driving.
But no, despite the headlines, they are not going to take away our cars.
Amazingly, not even the Greens want to do that. For once the story is not about German authoritarianism, or woke insanity or anything like that.
Rather, it’s about how nobody can really bring himself to care about the climate anymore – not even our forward-thinking, progressively minded, environmentally responsible political establishment.
For the backstory, we must go all the way back to the pre-Covid era, when aggressive climate legislation was popular even with centre-right CDU voters, and before the electorate had a taste of what Green policies like the draconian home heating ordinances really feel like on the ground.
Back in those halcyon days, when the child saint Greta Thunberg was cutting class to save the earth, Angela Merkel’s government passed the Climate Protection Act. The law mandates a 65% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2030, an 88% reduction by 2040, and an utterly unrealisable carbon neutrality by 2045. In the near term, the Climate Protection Act also establishes maximum annual emissions levels for various economic sectors. Should a given sector exceed its maximum, the responsible Ministry must submit an ominous “action programme” to bring things back on target.
The Climate Protection Act is archetypal climate nonsense. Politicians like to take credit for Doing Something about the climate, but because Doing Something amounts to massive economic restrictions and drastic interventions in daily life, they would prefer not to Do that Something themselves. Far better is to pass legislation committing future governments to Do Something and let them deal with the mess. Then you can reap the short-term rewards of being tough on carbon emissions, without bearing direct responsibility for all the chaos that actually being tough on carbon emissions would unleash. Alas, time marches forwards at a steady pace. I am sure that 2030 sounded like an unimaginably distant date when it was floated at the Paris Accords in 2015, but now it is a mere six years away. That is becoming a big, big problem for the climatists.
You could say that Merkel’s Climate Protection Act bequeathed the hapless Scholz government a small collection of ticking time bombs, which they’ve developed a considerable interest in defusing. One way to do this, is to revise the Climate Protection Act and remove its strict sector-based emissions limits before anybody is forced to field a climate-saving “action programme.” In the meantime, they’ve been studiously ignoring the requirements, which is why our Minister of Economic Destruction Robert Habeck could be found complaining back in June that no cabinet ministers were complying with Climate Protection Act emissions limits.
The fly in the ointment is the Green Party, who are as crazy as their oblivious out-of-touch upper middle-class urbanite constituents, and who have thought it best to block government efforts to (however temporarily) defang Merkel’s odious law.
In a fit of frustration, the liberal Transport Minister Volker Wissing therefore warned that if no Climate Protection Act reforms were possible, he might be forced to impose “drastic interventions” on motorists:
In the dispute over a reform of the Climate Protection Act, Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP) has warned of drastic cuts for motorists – including weekend driving bans. This is according to a letter from Wissing to the heads of the SPD, Green and FDP parliamentary factions. It was made available to the Deutsche Presse-Agentur on Thursday …
The letter states that if the amended Climate Protection Act does not come into force before 15 July, the ministry will be obliged under the current law to present an action programme to ensure compliance with the annual emission levels for the transport sector in the coming years.
And just like that, the climatists are falling all over themselves to reassure Germans that no, don’t worry, driving is fine, nobody wants to take away your cars:
The Federal Environmental Agency believes [driving bans are] unnecessary. “Of course we don’t need driving bans. Nobody is even discussing such a ban; this is frightening people for no reason,” said [Green-affiliated] President Dirk Messner. Instead, he once again suggested a general speed limit on German motorways …
There is more, there is always more:
The SPD also criticised the proposal: “Scaremongering with far-fetched proposals won’t help climate protection in the transport sector at all, quite the contrary,” SPD Bundestag faction leader Detlef Müller said … “The proposal does not further our common goal of reducing CO2 emissions, but to unnecessary uncertainty for people in our country.” The SPD Bundestag faction clearly rejects driving bans for cars and lorries. Such manoeuvres would hardly advance the ongoing deliberations on the Climate Protection Act in the Bundestag, said Müller.
I like this paragraph so much that I’ve read it five times.
It’s just so entertaining to read some right-thinking lunatic like Müller insisting up and down that literally banning driving “does not further our common goal of reducing CO2 emissions.”
Along with the Green Party and Greenpeace, the environmental organisation BUND has also criticised Wissing’s statements on the threat of driving bans. BUND transport expert Jens Hilgenberg said:
“It fits the picture that this minister, of all people, who blocks every measure, no matter how easy to implement, such as a speed limit on motorways, is now playing on people’s fears.”
He is only doing so to further increase the pressure on the coalition partners, Hilgenberg says. “This is a shabby tactic.”
We must add avoiding political suicide to the long and growing list of things – from the rights of Palestinians to the threat posed by “disinformation” to third-world poverty – that are more important than climate change. This is becoming a very long list indeed.
So what are the solutions, if we’re not going to ban driving on weekends, and the Greens insist on blocking reforms to the Climate Protection Act? Well, aside from the speed limit, which has the same attraction for the left in Germany as banning guns does for the left in the United States (and about equal chances of achieving any of the stated goals), the experts have nothing but the same tired nostrums: We need more public transit! We need more electromobility! We need more expansions to the electric vehicle charging networks! The problem is not only that none of this amounts to an “action programme” to sink vehicle emissions posthaste; it is also that there is no money for any of this. Electric vehicle subsidies have been withdrawn since the courts blew a 60 billion dollar hole in the government’s budget. Far from expanding public transit, we’re fighting to maintain the decaying rail network we already have. And nobody believes that more charging stations will save the planet.
This is late-stage climatism and it will linger for a long time.
There await years if not decades of haggling over the ambitious goals set by past governments, years of fig leafs and excuses, years of relaxing restrictions in elaborate ways so we can pretend we’re still doing something.
It is going to be very tedious, but also, I suspect, occasionally entertaining.
end
GERMANY/VOLKSWAGEN
They see the light!
“Returning To Petrol”: Volkswagen EV Sales Plunge 25% In Europe
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 04:15 AM
Europe is “returning to petrol”, according to a new article from Yahoo Finance which highlighted Volkswagen’s EV sales as the canary in the coalmine.
Sales of Volkswagen’s electric vehicles have declined by nearly 25% in Europe, with a noticeable shift back to gasoline-powered cars amid waning interest in battery-operated models, the report says.
It notes that the downturn, observed in the initial quarter of the year, is attributed to heightened inflation and escalating energy costs, which have cooled consumer enthusiasm for electric cars. Worldwide, Volkswagen, which also owns brands like Audi, Skoda, and Porsche, saw a 3% decrease in electric vehicle sales, totaling 136,400 units. In contrast, sales of traditional combustion engine vehicles rose by 4%, approaching two million units.
The report notes that demand for electric vehicles has dipped as governments in Europe reduce subsidies and soften ambitious goals to phase out petrol and diesel cars.
In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delayed the prohibition of new petrol and diesel sales from 2030 to 2035 and removed incentives for new EV purchases last year. Despite Volkswagen’s strong presence in the UK market with models like the Audi e-Tron and Volkswagen ID, petrol car demand is growing faster than electric.
In the EU, discussions are ongoing to modify bans on fossil fuel cars to permit synthetic fuels. The end of EV subsidies in Germany, coupled with the EU pausing emissions targets, has notably impacted Volkswagen’s sales. Additionally, competition is intensifying with cheaper, subsidy-backed Chinese EVs entering the market.
Despite a significant drop in European EV sales, Volkswagen reported a 91% increase in China. Other manufacturers like BMW and Stellantis are also adjusting their electric vehicle strategies amid fluctuating consumer interest.
“Our diversified product portfolio gives us the necessary flexibility to compensate for fluctuations in demand in certain segments – as is currently the case with all-electric vehicles – in others,” said Hildegard Wortmann, a member of Volkswagen’s executive board.
Recall we have been writing about the influx of competition in EVs coming from China. Earlier this month, Mercedes-Benz boss Ola Källenius urged the EU to lower tariffs on EVs that are being imported from China. The call comes at the same time the European Commission is mulling whether to raise import duties as Europe continues to grapple with Chinese subsidies.
Källenius said that the increased competition would “help Europe’s carmakers produce better cars in the long run” and that government protectionism is “going the wrong way.
Källenius’ comment is a free market slap in the face to the EU, which has claimed China is “distorting” the EV market. Recall back in September 2023 we wrote that the EU was opening an investigation into Chinese EV subsidies.
At the time, we noted that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was taking exception with the fact that “the global market is flooded with cheap Chinese cars”.
end
EUROPE/GERMANY/TERRORISTS
Welcome to the New World. You let in huge number of migrants and many are terrorists.
They even publish that they are going to target German football stadium during this suppmer’s European championships.
(Brooke/Remix)
Security Ramped-Up In Germany After Jihadists Threaten Drone Strikes At Euro 2024
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via ReMix News,
An offshoot terror cell affiliated with Islamic State has published propaganda encouraging jihadists to target German football stadiums during this summer’s European Championships.
In the latest issue of the “Voice of Khorasan” magazine, a publication run by ISKP, or Islamic State — Khorasan Province, the terror organization called for jihad at Europe’s flagship football tournament, which runs for a month in Germany from June 14 until July 14.
Against a backdrop of an explosive drone flying across a football stadium, the publication used the headline, “If they restrict and oppress you on the ground, then attack them from the sky.”
“Run over the infidels with your car, hit them with a knife, with poison, or blow out their brains with bullets and set fire to their houses,” it further wrote.
German security services are understood to be treating the message as a credible threat. They are ramping up surveillance and implementing measures to combat any attempts to use drone strikes against stadiums hosting the event, which is expected to be attended by hundreds of thousands of football fans from across Europe.
The threat is the latest in a long line of menacing imagery published by terror cells to inflict fear across the continent.
Earlier this month, images circulated online of jihadists vowing to target the UEFA Champions League quarter-final games, prompting the authorities to bolster defenses at stadiums across Western Europe.
“The main question is whether these are free riders or a serious threat,” a high-ranking state security officer told Focus.
Authorities, however, are unwilling to take a risk on security and will treat the threat as credible.
“It is to be feared that other terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda will also use their PR channels to agitate for an attack offensive in Europe and Germany,” the source added.
The Afghan splinter group of Islamic State has grown in stature in recent months to become the primary organization of concern for security officials across Europe.
A major counter-terror operation took place in the German city of Cologne before Christmas after security services in Austria, Germany, and Spain received intelligence of jihadists affiliated with the group planning to carry out several attacks at Christian landmarks including Cologne Cathedral.
Last month, two Afghan nationals with ties to the U.N.-proscribed terror cell were arrested in Germany on suspicion of planning a terror attack near the Swedish parliament to avenge the permittance of Koran-burning demonstrations in the country.
Several individuals are understood to have exploited the migratory route from Ukraine to enter the European Union to plan attacks, with Tajikistan and Turkmenistan nationals arrested in Germany in July last year having entered Western Europe from the war-torn country.
Authorities in neighboring France are also concerned about the threat of terror attacks during Paris’ hosting of the summer Olympic Games this year, and its organizers have devised a “Plan B” in case terror threats jeopardize the event’s opening ceremony.
“There is no terrorist threat to the Olympics and Paralympics today, but we will continue to monitor the situation,” Oudéa-Castéra told France 2 earlier this month.
“Just because we don’t talk about it, just because we don’t mention Plan B, doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist.”
The terror alert level in France remains at the highest possible due to concerns over Islamic radicals and fears of retaliation against the West because of the war in Israel.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS.
ISRAEL/IRAN/MONDAY NIGHT
Israel Says Readying ‘Imminent’ Attack On Iran As Airlines Cancel Flights To Region
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 01:29 PM
Summary:
- Middle East braces for Israeli ‘retaliation’ attack on Iran after Israel War Cabinet meets
- Israeli Air Force says it has completed ‘preparation’ and that an attack is ‘imminent’
- US officials tell WSJ they believe Israel will launch an anti-Iran operation today
- IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi: Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel “will be met with a response.”
- Netanyahu orders military: draw up a list of targets
- Several major airlines canceling flights to Tel Aviv and whole region.
- State Dept spox: “commitment to Israel’s security is sacrosanct”.
- G7 working on measures against Iran as China, Russia signal weekend attack won’t hurt relations with Tehran
- European allies urge Israel against military response
- Tehran warns that it’s ready to hit back harder.
- IRGC says it is willing to hit back from Iran for any new Israeli escalation, including then it attacks in Syria.
- Iran FM: we warned Washington that response in face of an Israeli attack will be “faster, stronger, and broader” (via AJ).
- US reiterates that it “does not seek conflict with Iran.”
* * *
Update(1329ET): It appears things are moving fast, via Israel’s Channel 12 broadcaster, following the earlier conclusion of Israel’s War Cabinet meeting:
THE ISRAELI AIR FORCE HAS COMPLETED ITS PREPARATION FOR AN IMMINENT ATTACK AGAINST IRAN
The Times of Israel top headline has switched to: War cabinet decides to hit Iran back hard, hopes it won’t spark regional war
A host of airlines have canceled flights to the region, including the following:
Germany’s Lufthansa has suspended its regular flights to and from Tel Aviv, Erbil, and Amman, up to and including Monday. Flights to Beirut and Tehran will remain suspended until at least Thursday.
KLM cancelled all flights to and from Tel Aviv until Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Dutch arm of Air France says.
Britain’s easyJet on Sunday paused operations to and from Tel Aviv. The carrier said in an emailed statement to Reuters that it will temporarily pause operations to and from Tel Aviv until April 21.
Wizz Air says it had cancelled most of its flights to and from Tel Aviv, Saturday through Monday.
Finnair has suspended operations in Iranian airspace until further notice, which may cause longer flight times on flights from Doha. A spokesperson said the Finnish carrier will reroute over Egypt, resulting in delays of a “few minutes.”
IRGC threatens “new equation”:
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Potentially significant statement by #IRGC chief commander Hossein Salami: “We have decided to create a new equation [with #Israel].” This equation is that, from now on, if Israel attacks #Iranian interests, figures, and citizens anywhere, they will retaliate from Iran. 1/
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END
ISRAEL/IRAN TUESDAY MORNING
Quiet before the storm: Is escalating Israel-Iran violence on the way? – analysis
Reduced clashes in the Gaza and Lebanon fronts came as Iran-Israel tensions grew.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANAPRIL 16, 2024 11:22Updated: APRIL 16, 2024 12:17
The Iranian attack on Israel on April 13-14 involved not just Iran but also Iran’s proxies. Iran operationalized Hezbollah and the Yemenite Houthis to simultaneously carry out the attacks. However, in the wake of the attack, there have been two days of relative quiet in the region. Israel is carrying out limited operations in Gaza. In general, the Gaza front has been quiet since the IDF withdrew most of its men, leaving only one division of forces in Gaza.
On the northern front, Hezbollah is also weighing its next moves and has reduced its fire after launching around 150 rockets between April 13 and 14, targeting Israeli bases in the Golan.
The IDF stated on April 15 that “IDF fighter jets struck Hezbollah terrorists in a military compound in the area of Meiss El Jabal, as well as an additional Hezbollah military compound in the area of Tayr Harfa in southern Lebanon.”
In addition on April 15, “Following sirens that sounded in the area of Hanita in northern Israel, approximately five launches were identified crossing from Lebanon and fell in open areas. No injuries were reported. The IDF struck the sources of fire,” the IDF said. The IDF also targeted Hezbollah sites in Markaba, Jabal Blat, Al-Hamra, and Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah’s front remains active and has fired 3,100 projectiles at Israel since October 7.
In addition, the IDF intercepted two drones on the night of April 14 and the morning of April 15. Drone threats, either from Yemen or Iraq, continue, and there is currently a lot of anticipation throughout the region.
Could the risk of escalation also lead to a potential agreement? Hamas has rejected the latest Israeli ceasefire deal, and Hezbollah does not seem ready to withdraw from the border. Hamas appears to feel empowered, along with Iran’s other proxies. Iran’s entrenchment in Syria is also not likely to change. In fact, Iran may increase the entrenchment.
One must wonder what kind of effective pressure could be exerted on Hamas, Hezbollah, or other Iranian proxies that might change their behavior. All of these points mean that the region has reached a new phase of the conflict that began on October 7.
Entering a new era of the conflict
The April 13-14 Iranian attacks were a curtain-raiser of this new era. It came just after the six-month anniversary of October 7 in obvious symbolic timing. The question is whether this is the quiet before the next storm or whether a new normal has set in that could lead to de-escalation. The IDF must be weary to expect escalation as it might get the opposite. Just as when things are “too quiet,” the IDF must be on high alert to the brewing of a potential major conflict.
END
IRAN/TUESDAY MORNING
IRAN RIAL PLUMMETS TO 706,000 PER DOLLAR
chaos inside Iran…
(Times of Israel)
Iranians brace for potential Israeli strikes amid fears for economy, anger at regime
Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel saw the rial plunge, people stocking up on supplies; Revolutionary Guards forced to warn public against pro-Israel posts on social media
By PARISA HAFEZIToday, 9:18
A banner depicting the a flying missile with text in Persian reading “I will not abandon my homeland” is displayed along a street in central Tehran on April 15, 2024. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP)
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (Reuters) — The prospect of Israeli retaliation against Iran for its drone and missile attack over the weekend has alarmed many Iranians already facing economic pain and tighter social and political controls after protests in 2022-23.
Iran’s political and military leaders have repeatedly warned that they will respond to any Israeli retaliation by escalating further, potentially triggering yet more attacks.
And that would only be bad news for ordinary people, said 45-year-old teacher Hesam from the northern city of Amol.
“Economic pressure will mount, our safety will be jeopardized… We must avoid conflict at all cost. I don’t want a war. How can I protect my two children? Nowhere will be safe.”
Housewife Parvaneh fears an Israeli strike could be the final hammer blow to the economy, weakened by years of sanctions, mismanagement and corruption.
“We Iranians have endured more than enough for years. War brings only disaster. My husband is a factory worker. We do not have even enough money to buy staples let alone stockpiling them,” said the 37-year-old mother-of-two in the central city of Yazd.
Middle and lower-income Iranians are shouldering much of the burden of the existing economic woes, with inflation over 50%, rising utility, food and housing prices and the rial currency falling sharply.
There has been pride mixed in with the fear over Iran’s retaliation against what Tehran said was an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus on April 1.
“I am so proud of the attacks on Israel. They started it. We had to retaliate. Israel cannot do a damn thing. They know Iran is very powerful,” Hossein Sabahi, 30, a government employee in Tabriz city, told Reuters.
Iranian demonstrators chant slogans during a anti-Israeli protest at the Felestin (Palestine) Sq. in Tehran, Iran, Monday, April 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Shortly after the attack, state TV showed small demonstrations in several cities in support of Tehran’s unprecedented assault, with people chanting “Death to Israel” and “Death to America.”
But the markets show the harsh economic realities behind the defiance.
War jitters sent demand for hard currency soaring. The rial briefly plummeted to a new record low of around 705,000 to the US dollar during Saturday’s attack according to Bonbast.com, which gathers live data from Iranian exchanges.
“People are buying hard currency since Sunday. There has been a boost in my business due to the fear of war,” said a businessman in Tehran.
Iran’s rulers may also have something to worry about.
The intelligence unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a startling statement on Sunday warning against any pro-Israeli posts by Iranian social media users, state media reported.
This is a video from Iran. It’s nearly 2 am per the commentator, and Iranians are lining up to fill their cars with gas and hitting the corner store for food and supplies. (via Telegram)
·
Some Iranian opponents of the clerical establishment, inside and outside Iran, have gone as far as voicing support for Israel online.
“Many people are frustrated because of economic woes and social restrictions… An Israeli strike could unleash their pent-up anger and revive protests, which is the last thing we need when threatened by a foreign enemy,” said a former official in Iran’s moderate camp.
The overall sense of anxiety only increased when some Western governments began evacuating the families of their diplomats, reminding older Iranians of the feverish atmosphere when Iraq invaded in 1980 or during the tumult of the 1979 revolution.
“Foreigners leaving Iran is a sign that we will be attacked by Israel… We will be more isolated… we will be more miserable,” said engineer Mohammad Reza in Tehran, who like others did not want to give his full name.
Iran launched an unprecedented direct assault on Israel late on Saturday, sending over 300 attack drones and missiles.
According to the Israel Defense Forces, Iran’s attack comprised 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles — 99% of which were intercepted by air defenses.
An Israeli army f-15 fighter jet flies over central Israel on April 15, 2024. (Menahem KAHANA / AFP)
Most of the projectiles were intercepted before they reached Israel, with the help of the United States, Jordan, and other allies, and the sole injury was a Bedouin girl, who was struck and seriously wounded by falling shrapnel in the Negev desert. The IAF’s southern Nevatim base suffered minor damage to infrastructure, the IDF said, but continued to function during the attack.
On Monday, Israel’s war cabinet met to mull a response. Reports said Israel felt obligated to strike back in a way that would deter Iran, but without sparking a regional war or antagonizing Israel’s allies who have been calling for restraint.
IRAN/USA/NEW SANCTIONS
why not stop all dealing with Iran?
US treasury secretary to introduce new sanctions on Iran during IMF conference later today – report
US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen gives a press conference a day ahead of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meetings in Sao Paulo, Brazil, February 27, 2024. (Andre Penner/AP)
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is preparing to impose new sanctions on Iran following its unprecedented weekend attack on Israel, Axios reports.
According to the report, Yellen will introduce the sanctions during the annual International Monetary Fund conference in Washington DC later today, and will urge her counterparts attending the conference to take similar steps in their home countries.
In a script of Yellen’s planned remarks seen by Axios, she states that the US Treasury “will not hesitate to work with our allies to use our sanctions authority to continue disrupting the Iranian regime’s malign and destabilizing activity.”
Earlier today, Foreign Minister Israel Katz said he had urged 32 countries to impose sanctions on Iran’s missile program after the Sunday morning attack in which Tehran launched some 350 attack drones and missiles at Israel
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Hamas rejected everything in latest hostage deal offer, upped some demands — Israeli official
By JACOB MAGID FOLLOWToday, 2:46 am
A senior Israeli official tells The Times of Israel that Hamas’s response to the latest hostage deal proposal rejected every single clause of the offer.
The Hamas response demands that the release of Israeli hostages in the first stage of the deal be conditioned on negotiators providing guarantees that in the second stage Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire, a complete IDF withdrawal from Gaza and the unrestricted return of Palestinians to the northern part of the enclave the Israeli official says. The latter three demands have all been non-starters for Jerusalem.
Hamas’s response also dramatically increased the number of Palestinian security prisoners it is demanding for every hostage it releases as well as the number of murder convicts it wants freed.
The Israeli official says Hamas is now only willing to initially release roughly 20 hostages who fall under the categories of women and men over 50, as opposed to the proposal crafted by Qatari, Egyptian and American mediators, which would have seen 40 hostages freed. It is also demanding that Israel agree to a six-week truce before releasing those 20 or so hostages.
“Sinwar doesn’t want a deal. He doesn’t care if Gazans continue to suffer, even after extraordinary Israeli flexibility regarding all the parameters of the American proposal,” the Israeli official says.
END
US accuses Hamas of being ‘obstacle’ to Gaza truce after it rejected Israel’s proposal
Terror group said to give mediators a new draft, claims it can only free 20 ‘humanitarian’ hostages, demands permanent end to war, return to north Gaza for displaced civilians
By JACOB MAGID FOLLOW
and TOI STAFF15 April 2024, 11:52 pm
A protester holds a placard as relatives of hostages held in Gaza and their supporters block traffic outside of the US embassy, calling for the immediate release of all captives, Tel Aviv, April 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo)
The United States on Monday accused Hamas of being the barrier to a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, adding that Israel had moved in a “significant way” to submit a reasonable proposal in the ongoing hostage talks.
“There’s a deal on the table that would achieve much of what Hamas claims it wants to achieve, and they have not taken that deal,” US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a briefing.
The comments came after Hamas rejected the terms of last week’s Cairo proposal for a hostage-truce deal, and then presented US, Qatari, and Egyptian mediators with a counter-offer of its own. Neither the US-drafted Cairo proposal nor Hamas’s response has been published, and there have been multiple, sometimes contradictory reports, on their content.
“The bottom line is that they have rejected it, and if they did accept it, it would allow for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza of at least six weeks, which would benefit the Palestinian people whom they claim to represent. It would also allow us to continue improvements in the delivery of humanitarian assistance,” said Miller.
“The bottom line is Hamas needs to take that deal, and they need to explain to the world and to the Palestinian people why they aren’t taking it because it is Hamas right now that is the barrier and the obstacle to a ceasefire in Gaza,” he said.
A senior Israeli official tells The Times of Israel that Hamas’s response to the latest hostage deal proposal rejected every single clause of the proposal crafted in Cairo earlier this month.
The Hamas response demands that the release of Israeli hostages in the first stage of the deal be conditioned on negotiators providing guarantees that in the second stage Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire, a complete IDF withdrawal from Gaza and the unrestricted return of Palestinians to the northern part of the enclave the Israeli official said. The latter three demands have all been non-starters for Jerusalem.
Hostage family members at protest marking six months since October 7 outside Knesset building in Jerusalem on April 7, 2024. (Paulina Patimer/Hostages and Missing Families Forum)
Hamas’s response also dramatically increases the number of Palestinian security prisoners it is demanding for every hostage it releases as well as the number of murder convicts it wants freed.
The Israeli official said Hamas is now only willing to release in the first stage roughly 20 hostages who fall under the categories of women, men over 50 and sick hostages. The proposal crafted by Qatari, Egyptian and American mediators in Cairo envisioned Hamas releasing 40 hostages in those categories.
The terror group has claimed that it no longer has 40 living hostages in those categories. An Isreli official was quoted as telling the Walla news site that Hamas had used “ridiculous excuses” to explain the refusal to release 40 “humanitarian” hostages, claiming that many are either dead or not in its custody.
Hamas also demands in its counter-offer that Israel agree to a six-week ceasefire before the terror group releases those first 20 or so hostages.
“Sinwar doesn’t want a deal. He doesn’t care if Gazans continue to suffer, even after extraordinary Israeli flexibility regarding all the parameters of the American proposal,” the Israeli official said.
Hamas and other terror groups are believed still to be holding 129 of the 253 hostages abducted during its October 7 massacre in southern Israel, not all of whom are alive, after 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a weeklong truce in late November.
The senior Israeli official’s comments echoed a rare statement from the Mossad issued by the Prime Minister’s Office on Sunday, which charged that Hamas’s rejection of the most recent proposal proved that Sinwar “is not interested in a humanitarian deal and in the return of the hostages, and continues to take advantage of tensions with Iran to try to unite the theaters and to achieve a general escalation in the region.”
Israel’s Mossad Director David Barnea speaks during the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) World Summit in the central coastal city of Herzliya on September 10, 2023. (Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP, File)
According to the Qatari-funded Al Jazeera, Hamas submitted its latest proposal to the mediators. As of this writing, Israel has not publicly commented on it.
Al Jazeera and Haaretz both reported that Hamas is demanding a permanent ceasefire at the very start of any hostage release process, during an initial 42-day truce, and that it would not release any hostages until the start of a second 42-day period.
Hamas, these reports said, is demanding the release of 30 Palestinian security prisoners for each civilian hostage — a tenfold increase from the three security prisoners who were freed for each civilian hostage in November’s deal. Israel would reportedly be required to release 50 Palestinian security prisoners per captive female soldier, of whom 30 would be prisoners serving life sentences.
The proposal is also believed to specify that during the initial, six-week phase, displaced Palestinians would be allowed to return unimpeded to northern Gaza, and the IDF would withdraw from all urban centers in the Strip.
Al Jazeera and Israel’s Haaretz news daily reported that Hamas claims that it would use the initial six-week phase to locate all the hostages and ascertain their condition. Previous proposals since the November truce have called for the release of some 40 “humanitarian” hostages.
Hamas has rejected all such proposals and conditioned any further hostage releases on Israel ending the war, withdrawing all IDF forces and allowing displaced northern Gazans to return to their homes — demands Israel has rejected as delusional.
Displaced Palestinians taking the coastal Rashid road as they attempt to return to Gaza City pass through Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, on April 14, 2024. (AFP)
According to some reports, under its new proposal, Hamas would release elderly and sick hostages, civilian women and female soldiers in the course of the second 42-day phase. Those reports did not specify how many hostages this would amount to, but the designation would appear to potentially cover some 45 hostages.
Israel would be required to complete the withdrawal of all IDF troops from Gaza as part of this second phase. The reports were not definitive as to whether the complete withdrawal would be required at the start or in the course of this phase.
In the third and final stage of Hamas’s proposed deal, the rehabilitation of the war-torn Gaza Strip would begin, and all captive male soldiers and men of military age would be released, as well as the bodies of those who have died or been killed in captivity or whose bodies were abducted on October 7.
The reports did not specify how many Palestinian security prisoners Israel would be required to release for each of the hostages in the final phase of the deal.
Hostages released by Hamas on the fourth day of the ceasefire with Israel are transferred to the Red Cross inside Gaza ahead of their return to Israel via Egypt, November 27, 2023. (Screenshot/File)
The war in Gaza erupted after Hamas’s October 7 massacre, which saw some 3,000 terrorists burst across the border into Israel by land, air and sea, killing some 1,200 people and seizing 253 hostages, mostly civilians, many amid acts of brutality and sexual assault.
The IDF has confirmed the deaths of 34 of the 129 hostages still held by Hamas, citing new intelligence and findings obtained by troops operating in Gaza. One more person is listed as missing since October 7, and their fate is still unknown.
Hamas is also holding the bodies of fallen IDF soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin since 2014, as well as two Israeli civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who are both thought to be alive after entering the Strip of their own accord in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
ISRAEL//IRAN/
end
Times of Israel
ISRAEL /UKRAINE/USA
US House speaker announces plan for separate bills aiding Israel, Ukraine
The US House of Representatives will consider aid to Israel and Ukraine as separate legislation this week, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson says, rejecting pressure to simply approve a package sent over by the Senate that includes spending for both allies.
Leaving a meeting of House Republicans on Monday evening, Johnson said the narrowly divided chamber will consider four bills altogether that would also include aid to Taiwan, US allies in the Indo-Pacific and US national security priorities.
Facing an outright rebellion from conservatives fiercely opposed to aiding Ukraine, Johnson told the meeting he would push to get the package to the House floor under a single debate rule, then hold separate votes on aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the other foreign policy proposals, according to Republican lawmakers.
“We know that the world is watching us to see how we react,” Johnson tells reporters. “They’re watching to see if America will stand up for its allies and in our own interest around the globe. And we will.”
The GOP meeting was filled with lawmakers at odds in their approach to Ukraine: Republican defense hawks, including the top lawmakers on national security committees, who want Johnson to finally take up the national security supplemental package as a bundle, are pitted against populist conservatives who are fiercely opposed to continued support for Kyiv’s fight at all.
“The House must rush to Israel’s aid as quickly as humanly possible, and the only way to do that is passing the Senate’s supplemental ASAP,” says Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
The White House would oppose a standalone bill that only addressed aid for Israel, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said earlier.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries pledges in a letter to lawmakers to do “everything in our legislative power to confront aggression” around the globe.
“The gravely serious events of this past weekend in the Middle East and Eastern Europe underscore the need for Congress to act immediately,” Jeffries says. “We must take up the bipartisan and comprehensive national security bill passed by the Senate forthwith. This is a Churchill or Chamberlain moment.”
end
Houthis/USA
Biden the Magnificent’s appeasement policy is failing badly.
US Says Over 90 Missiles & Drones Were Launched From Yemen In Past 48 Hours
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 02:45 AM
New statements from the Pentagon issued Monday have said the Houthis fired over 90 ballistic missiles and drones – most of which were intercepted by US and allied forces over the past 48 hours, once the Iranian attack kicked off in the overnight hours of Saturday.
US Central Command described that at one point during the attack the Houthis fired an anti-ship ballistic missile directly against US Navy and commercial ships in the Gulf of Aden. “There were no injuries or damage reported by US, coalition, or commercial ships,” CENTCOM said.
Of the 90 total projectiles fired, the CENTCOM says its forces intercepted over 80 drones and at least six ballistic missiles total.
“Iran’s continued unprecedented, malign, and reckless behavior endangers regional stability and the safety of US and coalition forces,” CENTCOM said the the statement.
“CENTCOM remains postured to support Israel’s defense against these dangerous actions by Iran. We will continue to work with all our regional partners to increase regional security,” it added.
The Houthis are expected to launch another phase of intense attacks in the scenario that Israel hits back at Iran. On Monday Israel’s leadership in the war cabinet appears to have greenlighted such a retaliation attack.
On Monday it has also been coming to light to huge degree to which the US and Western allies were key in helping Israel repel the Iranian attack. According to The Wall Street Journal:
Saturday’s Iranian strike on Israel was huge by any standard. Tehran launched more than 170 explosive-laden drones, around 120 ballistic missiles and about 30 cruise missiles, according to Israel. The damage could have been catastrophic. As it turned out, almost all were intercepted.
That success was due to a combination of Israel’s sophisticated air-defense system and critical assistance provided by the U.S. and other Western and Arab partners. American, British and Jordanian warplanes played an especially important role in downing drones. Most of the Iranian drones and missiles were destroyed before they even reached Israeli airspace.
At this point the Middle East is bracing for a potential bigger Israel-Iran war which would likely spread to include Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen.
This is why the US and European leaders are busy urging restraint for Israel. A bigger war would also send the price of oil soaring, worsening Biden’s reelection chances.
END
ISRAEL/GAZA/LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
IDF assassinates senior Hezbollah coastal commander
According to the IDF, Ismail Yusef Baz had served for decades with Hezbollah in a variety of posts before becoming a coastal commander.
By YONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFAPRIL 16, 2024 15:31Updated: APRIL 16, 2024 17:59
Ismail Yousef Baz, a Hezbollah commander killed April 16, 2024. (Hezbollah media office)
The IDF on Tuesday announced it had assassinated a senior Hezbollah commander for the Lebanon coastal region, equivalent to the rank of an Israeli brigade commander.
According to the IDF, Ismail Yusef Baz had served for decades with Hezbollah in a variety of posts before becoming coastal commander.
Among his various roles was managing both rocket and anti-tank missile attacks from the coastal region into Israel.
In addition, Baz masterminded various terror operations against Israel.
Baz continues the list of close to a dozen senior Hezbollah officials whom Israel has killed during the war, with a smaller number of those being as high as the rank of brigade commander.
The attack also comes following Iran’s failed attempt to strike Israel with around 350 aerial threats and as Jerusalem contemplates the severity of its expected response.
Two explosive drones from Lebanon fall in Israeli territory
Earlier on Tuesday, residents of northern Israel said that two explosive drones had crossed from Lebanese territory and fell in Beit Hillel in the Galilee on Tuesday, which lightly wounded three people, Israeli media reported.
No alarm had sounded in the area, and the incident is under investigation.
Israel’s northern National Fire and Rescue Authority spokesperson said in response that three fire crews had been extinguishing a fire that had erupted as a result of the drones falling in the area.
end
2 Hezbollah commanders killed in IDF strikes as attack drones injure 3 in north
Military probing why sirens didn’t sound before drones struck near community of Beit Hillel; Lebanese terror group claims to target Iron Dome battery
By EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOWToday, 6:04 pmUpdated at 10:26 pm
A Hezbollah drones flies over the Galilee Panhandle (left), and the aftermath of an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon’s Ain Baal, April 16, 2024. (Screenshot: X)
The Israeli military and Lebanon’s Hezbollah exchanged fire on Tuesday, with the terror group launching two attack drones at northern Israel as two top commanders behind recent attacks were killed in separate airstrikes.
Three people were lightly hurt in the Hezbollah drone attack, according to media reports and local authorities.
The Israel Defense Forces said the two explosive-laden drones struck areas near the northern community of Beit Hillel.
Hezbollah claimed to have targeted an Iron Dome battery in the area. The terror group has made similar claims in recent months, which have been dismissed by the IDF as empty boasts.
The IDF said it was investigating why sirens did not sound during the attack.
Footage circulating on social media purported to show one of the drones flying over the Galilee Panhandle.
Shortly after the drone attack, Lebanese media reported one dead in an Israeli drone strike on a vehicle in the town of Ain Baal, near Tyre, about 15 kilometers (nine miles) from the Israel border.
The IDF later confirmed it had carried out the strike, saying it targeted and killed the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal region.
Ismail Yousef Baz, whose rank is equivalent to a brigade commander, was “a senior and veteran official in the military wing of Hezbollah,” holding several positions, the latest being the commander of the coastal region, the army said.
“As part of his position, he was involved in advancing and planning rocket and anti-tank missile launches towards the State of Israel from the coastal area in Lebanon,” it said.
“During the war, he organized and planned a number of terror attacks against Israel,” the IDF added.
Hezbollah announced Baz’s death, saying he was killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. The terror group did not refer to him as a commander.
Ismail Yousef Baz, a Hezbollah commander killed April 16, 2024. (Hezbollah media office)
Since October 8, Hezbollah has attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a daily basis with rockets, drones, anti-tank missiles and other means, saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there. The group is an Iranian proxy in Lebanon, and Palestinian terror groups Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are backed by Iran.
Baz was the sixth Hezbollah officer with a rank equivalent to a brigade commander to be killed by Israel in recent months, according to the IDF. The military has said that more than 30 Hezbollah commanders have been killed in its strikes in the past six months.
Hours later, another drone strike was reported by Lebanese media on a vehicle in the town of Chehabiyeh, killing two members of Hezbollah.
The IDF later took responsibility for the strike, saying it had targeted a commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force.
Muhammad Shahouri, according to the IDF, was the commander of Radwan’s western district rocket unit.
Shahouri was killed while driving in the village of Kfar Dounine, adjacent to Chehabiyeh, the military said, publishing footage of the strike.
The IDF said Shahouri was “responsible for the planning and execution of many rocket [attacks] towards the Israeli home front,” from the western and central areas of southern Lebanon.
Alongside Shahouri, another Hezbollah commander, Mahmoud Fadlallah, was killed in the strike. The IDF says he was also a member of Hezbollah’s rocket unit.
Hezbollah announced both their deaths.
السيارة المستهدفة بالغارة بين بلدتي الشهابية وكفردونين
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·
The IDF said Tuesday it had also carried out strikes against buildings used by Hezbollah and where operatives were gathered in the towns of Ain Baal, Aalma ash-Shab, Hanine, and Yaroun.
The IDF said several rockets were fired at northern Israel throughout the day, causing no injuries.
It added that troops had shelled the launch sites with artillery.
Israel has threatened to go to war to force Hezbollah away from the border if it does not retreat and continues to threaten northern communities, from where some 70,000 people were evacuated to avoid the fighting.
So far, the skirmishes on the border have resulted in eight civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of 10 IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.
Hezbollah has named 278 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon, but some also in Syria. In Lebanon, another 54 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and at least 60 civilians have been killed.
end
IDF says it killed senior commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan force
Commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan force Muhammad Shahouri. (Hezbollah)
The IDF says it eliminated a senior commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force in an airstrike in southern Lebanon earlier today.
Muhammad Shahouri, according to the IDF, was the commander of Radwan’s western district rocket unit.
Shahouri was targeted while driving in the village of Kfar Dounine, adjacent to Chehabiyeh.
The IDF says Shahouri was “responsible for the planning and execution of many rocket [attacks] towards the Israeli home front,” from the western and central areas of southern Lebanon.
Alongside Shahouri, another Hezbollah commander, Mahmoud Fadlallah, was killed in the strike. The IDF says he was also a member of Hezbollah’s rocket unit.
Hezbollah announced both their deaths earlier today.
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
Two Palestinian killed by gunfire in escalating West Bank violence; settlers, army blame each other
There are conflicting reports from settlers, Palestinians, and the army as to the cause and nature of the brawl, as well as who shot the Palestinians.
By YUVAL BARNEAAPRIL 15, 2024 20:15Updated: APRIL 16, 2024 01:15
Two Palestinians were killed by gunfire during a brawl with settlers between the Jewish town of Gitit and the Palestinian town of Aqraba in the eastern West Bank, according to a report by the army radio on Monday.
The army informed the Palestinian authorities that the two killed were Abdalrahman Maher, 30, and Muhammad Ashraf Bani Jama, 21, with a third person having received upper body wounds during the fight.
There are conflicting reports from both settlers and Palestinians as to the cause and nature of the brawl.
According to a report received by the army, the settlers arrived in the area after around 50 Palestinians reportedly assaulted a Jewish shepherd with clubs and stones. The scene quickly devolved into mutual stone-throwing.
On the other hand, Palestinian sources say that the fighting broke out in a Palestinian-owned agricultural area and that a group of around 50 settlers quickly descended on the area. The Palestinian Red Crescent said that the army had prevented it from reaching the area.
Settlers claimed they were not responsible for killing the Palestinians, saying that the army arrived and found itself in a “life-threatening situation,” which led to the shooting.
The army denies this and claims it was not present in the area when the deadly confrontation occurred but that when it arrived on the scene, a number of settlers fled immediately.
Troops then fired a few shots into the air to disperse the crowd and specified that at no point did they feel threatened.
Following the dispersal, troops claim to have heard more gunshots in areas where they were not present. They rushed to the scene and found the two Palestinians lifeless on the ground, having been shot.
Police have opened an investigation but have not arrested any suspects.
West Bank violence
This is the latest incident in the recent flair-up in violence between settlers and Palestinians in the West Bank.
The latest flair-up was started when 14-year-old shepherd Binyamin Achimair disappeared on Friday. Later that day, there was some violence when groups involved in the search for Binyamin clashed with Palestinians in the nearby town of Al-Mughayyir.
The discovery of Binyamin’s body nearby caused another flash of violence in the Palestinian town of Duma, where settlers set cars on fire, and one person was killed by settler gunfire, according to Palestinian sources.
President Isaac Herzog pushed for calm and cessation of violence, calling on Israelis to be lawful and not impede the security services operations.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
end
IRAN/ISRAEL
END
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL
END
SAUDI ARABIA/JORDAN
END
ISRAEL/IRAN
HOUTHIS, IRAN/FRANCE
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
END
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG ISSUES
WORSE, IT IS SIMPLY AN AWFUL DRUG
(zerohedge)
Is Paxlovid A Dud?
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 07:40 PM
Authored by Maryanne Demasi via The Brownstone Institute,
Of all the antiviral drugs for Covid-19, Pfizer’s Paxlovid has been the most successful.
Not for its safety and efficacy, but for its ability to earn the company billions in profits despite being largely ineffective for most people.
In November 2021, before any data had emerged, the Biden Administration committed to purchasing 10 million treatment courses of Paxlovid worth $5.3 billion, pending authorisation by the US drug regulator.
One month later, Paxlovid was granted emergency use authorisation (EUA) by the FDA for use in adult and paediatric populations, 12 years or older.
The authorisation was based on early trial data showing the drug could reduce hospitalisations or death (89% relative risk reduction, 6% absolute risk reduction) in high-risk patients who were unvaccinated and had no prior exposure to Covid-19.
But the problem was, most Americans by that time (Dec 2021) had already been vaccinated against Covid-19 or had prior exposure to the virus, making the trial results irrelevant to the majority of people.
Pfizer had to prove its drug could benefit a broader market.
The manufacturer commenced the EPIC-SR trial, investigating the use of Paxlovid in unvaccinated people and vaccinated people with at least one risk factor for Covid-19 [clinicaltrials.gov].
By July 2022, however, Pfizer stopped enrolling participants “due to a very low rate of hospitalization or death observed in the standard-risk patient population.”
In a press release, the company announced that Paxlovid failed to impact its “novel primary endpoint of self-reported, sustained alleviation of all symptoms for four consecutive days.”
In other words, Paxlovid – a combination of nirmatrelvir and ritonavir – made no significant difference in alleviating symptoms of Covid-19 compared to placebo among non-hospitalised patients.
Pfizer stated that it was difficult to find benefit in a population that was already at a low rate of hospitalisation or death from Covid-19.
One year later, in August 2023, Pfizer quietly published the unfavourable findings on clinicaltrials.gov, without any fanfare or media attention. In fact, the media continued to promote the benefits of Paxlovid to the wider public.
The New York Times, for example, ran multiple stories during the pandemic about the “Power of Paxlovid,” encouraging more people to take the drug and criticised its under-use.
Simultaneously, Pfizer stoked public fear by overinflating the risk of Covid-19, paving the way for doctors to prescribe drugs like Paxlovid to manage the disease. Sometimes, the claims were misleading.
Pfizer, for example, tweeted that 3 out of 4 American adults were at “high risk” for severe Covid-19, but then cited a study in the advertisement that did not support the claim – so far, the misleading tweet has been viewed 11.6 million times.
“This is ridiculous,” tweeted Walid Gellad, Professor of Medicine at the University of Pittsburgh, “I don’t know how it is legal…3 out of 4 adults are not at high risk of severe Covid.”
That didn’t stop FDA commissioner Robert Califf from taking to social media to promote the benefits of Paxlovid.
He tweeted the drug could reduce the risk of developing ‘long covid’ based on weak evidence, and admitted to ‘cheerleading’ the use of Paxlovid because he felt overall “the evidence was strong.”
Califf copped criticism for his lack of impartiality as the head of the regulator, but justified his actions in a “public health emergency.”
Regulatory affairs expert Jessica Adams said it was a poor excuse.
“Something is really wrong with public health ‘leadership’ if it thinks that every norm can be thrown out the window in an emergency,” said Adams. “The FDA has learned nothing during the pandemic and is setting terrible precedents for future emergencies.”
By 2023, reports of people experiencing “rebound” symptoms after using Paxlovid, were increasing. Authorities could no longer claim it was “rare.”
High-profile officials such as former CDC director Rochelle Walensky, former NIAID director Tony Fauci, President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden all had reported a rebound of Covid symptoms after completing a course of Paxlovid.
Califf dismissed concerns about rebound, saying it was all just a “distraction,” but a study published in JAMA Network showed that symptomatic rebound in people with mild to moderate Covid-19 was as high as 25% after taking Paxlovid.
In May 2023, the FDA granted Paxlovid full approval for managing mild to moderate Covid-19 infections in adults at high risk of developing severe disease (including vaccinated adults, despite no data showing benefit in this population).
Last week, Paxlovid was back in the spotlight after the EPIC-SR trial was finally published in the New England Journal of Medicine, almost two years after Pfizer announced the futility of the study in July 2022.
Regardless of all the positive media coverage and promotion of Paxlovid by public health officials and government advisors, the evidence is clear.
Paxlovid, which now costs $1,400 for a 5-day course, has only shown benefit in a very rare population – that is, unvaccinated people who’ve never encountered the virus and are at high risk of serious Covid-19.
* * *
Republished from the author’s Substack
GLOBAL ISSUES//GLOBAL SALES
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MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Francis Collins has prostate cancer; Father Goya Hidalgo has “big cancerous tumor”; Isabella Strahan’s 3rd craniotomy; Purdue student, 22, dying of glioblastoma; SC 15-yr-old has brain bleed on pitch
“Probation union president suffers medical emergency after state board meeting”; “Nurse driving by saves life of teen having heart attack”; “Milan MS staff’s swift action saves student”; & more
| MARK CRISPIN MILLERAPR 15 |
UNITED STATES (1)
Either Francis Collins (unlike Fauci) really got the jab, which evidently injured him; or he wasn’t really jabbed, but got prostate cancer anyway (perhaps from someone shedding on him, or he got the “wrong” batch by mistake); or he doesn’t actually have cancer, but is only faking it to help scare everybody into still more bio-fascist panic (though, if that were so, this would be a much bigger story).
In short, who knows? The only thing we know is that there’s something really evil going on.
What to know about prostate cancer following Francis Collins’ diagnosis
April 12, 2024
When Francis S. Collins first learned that his prostate-specific antigen levels were rising, he wasn’t particularly worried. A slow rise in PSA levels, which can indicate the presence of prostate cancer, is common in men older than 65, and most never develop severe disease. However, when the former director of the National Institutes of Health underwent an MRI about a month ago, the scan revealed an enlarged tumor. By then, his PSA levels had also spiked, and he knew his diagnosis had drastically changed. Now, the 73-year-old scientist has announced that he will have to undergo a radical prostatectomy, a surgical procedure that removes the prostate gland.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Popular social media priest Father Goyo Hidalgo diagnosed with cancerous tumor
April 12, 2024
Los Angeles, CA – Father Goyo Hidalgo of the Archdiocese of Los Angeles announced on his social media accounts that he was diagnosed with a cancerous tumor. Father Goyo is popular on social media for sharing various experiences of his priesthood and encouraging his followers in their Catholic faith. He has over 100,000 followers on Twitter and almost 40,000 followers on Instagram. “The news I feared is here. I have a big cancerous tumor,” Father Goyo wrote on Twitter. They don’t know if they can operate or even shrink. So I guess my next appointment will determine what my future is. I am at peace and at the same time scared. I pray for all who hear the cancer news for [the] first time. Not fun.”
No age reported.
Michael Strahan’s daughter Isabella reveals she underwent 3rd craniotomy amid brain cancer battle
April 12, 2024
Michael Strahan’s daughter Isabella has experienced a setback in her battle against brain cancer. The 19-year-old model emotionally revealed on her YouTube vlog Friday that she had to undergo a third craniotomy after developing a fever. “It’s not as bad as the first time but I’m really in pain. They do give me pain medicine … they don’t work that well on me. So I’m in a lot of pain,” she told viewers before bursting into tears. “There’s ups and downs to this because I was eating so much a week ago and now I can’t eat anything,” she explained. “I’m in a down right now.” The University of Southern California student was discharged from the hospital after a weeklong stay but was readmitted after she started experiencing shortness of breath.
USC’s “vaccination” policy:
USC strongly recommends that all students, faculty, and staff become Fully Vaccinated against COVID-19 and thereafter receive booster doses when recommended.
Purdue student, 22, is dying. Inside a hospital room, he got Final Four for the ages
April 7, 2024
Indianapolis, IN – Purdue is on the court battling North Carolina State in the Final Four on a big screen television that’s been brought in to the hospice unit at IU Health Methodist Hospital for Jonathan Avalos. But most of the game his eyes are closed. Mostly, he is listening to the sounds of the announcers and his friends and family all around him. No one knows how much longer the 22-year-old Purdue student has to live, but everyone knows he is dying. Treatments have been stopped because there are no treatments left that will help the advanced stages of his glioblastoma, a deadly brain cancer Jonathan was diagnosed with the fall of his freshman year at Purdue. It was October of 2021 when Maria Avalos first noticed something was wrong with her only son. He was a freshman at Purdue and he was getting annoyed by his roommate, who wasn’t as squeaky clean and organized as he was. Maria drove to Purdue to check on the situation and, as she pulled up, Jonathan started walking toward her car. As he got closer, she noticed his left eye looked odd. It was drifting and unfocused. She asked him what was wrong, and Jonathan told her not to worry. It was just stress. Instead, Maria’s motherly instinct took over. She drove Jonathan to Methodist the next day at 10 a.m. for tests. By 7 p.m. that evening, the Avalos’ world was turned upside down. The scans showed a tumor, and it was obvious what kind of tumor it was. Jonathan had glioblastoma, a brain cancer with an average survival time of 12 to 18 months, according to Glioblastoma Research Organization. Only 25% of patients survive more than one year, and only 5% of patients survive more than five years. “He was scared, but I don’t think, until now, I don’t think he realized how big this is,” Maria said Saturday as she fed Jonathan steak. “He would always say, ‘I’m going to be fine.'” And for a while, it looked like Jonathan might be fine. After his diagnosis, he left Purdue and came home to go through treatment. When the scans came back, they were clear. He went back to Purdue and focused on his classes in his major of video game design. He was living life to the fullest. But after a routine MRI in March 2023, Maria got a call from the doctor. “You have to come back. Something is there.” Jonathan started radiation. But this time, the tumors weren’t going away. “One day, the doctor was talking with him, and he got the news that he had another tumor and he cried a little,” said Maria. “And then he said to his doctor, ‘I’m so sorry that you have to tell bad news to people every day.'”
Purdue’s “vaccination” policy:
The COVID-19 vaccine is NOT mandatory, but health officials strongly encourage those who are eligible to receive the vaccine.
South Carolina 15-year-old walks off soccer field with a headache — it turns out to be a brain bleed
April 6, 2024
Myrtle Beach, SC – Jase McDowell walked off the field near the end of his soccer game on March 26, saying he had the worst headache of his life. The high school freshman from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, covered his right eye with his hand and started vomiting. As the 15-year-old lay down on the sidelines, people thought he might have a migraine, or possibly a concussion — a few spectators thought he got hit in the head with a ball. As athletic trainers examined him, his father, Rob McDowell called 911. On the way to Grand Strand Medical Center, Jase was slurring his speech and having seizures as he slipped in and out of consciousness. At the hospital he was diagnosed with a ruptured arteriovenous malformation (AVM), a tangle of blood vessels that connects arteries and veins in the brain, according to Mayo Clinic. The rupture caused bleeding in his brain. Jase was rushed into emergency surgery to try to stop the bleeding. The two-hour surgery was successful and Jase was transported to the Medical University of South Carolina (MUSC) in Charleston, where a neuroendovascular surgeon performed an embolism to block blood flow to the AVM in hopes of shrinking it. While it’s possible that a hit to the head by a soccer ball could have caused Jase’s bleeding, it might have been coincidental, according to Lena. “Based on how his AVM looked, that thing was a ticking time bomb,” Lena says. “It was bound to rupture or bleed at some point. I’d be surprised if it was the soccer ball that caused it. It may have just been coincidental. I think this thing was going to bleed no matter what.”
Nurse driving by saves life of teen having heart attack
April 5, 2024
One day after his 17th birthday, Brayden Urland of Bountiful, Utah, was hanging out with friends when he had a sudden heart attack and collapsed. Fortunately, Tiffany Bears, the Chief Nursing Officer at McKay-Dee Hospital, happened to be driving by and saw the group of teens, with one of them on the ground. She knew something was up and turned around to see if she could help. When Bears first assessed Brayden, he was unresponsive, but he had a pulse and was breathing, but then his heart stopped, so the nurse immediately started CPR. Paramedics arrived moments later, took over care of the teen and transported him to a nearby hospital where he was diagnosed with a genetic heart condition. Brayden is out of the hospital now and his family is grateful for Bears’ timely intervention, which likely saved the teen’s life
Milan Middle School staff’s swift action saves student
April 5, 2024
Ohio – On February 9, during a seemingly ordinary day at Milan Middle School, a critical incident unfolded that tested the preparedness and swift action of school staff and emergency responders. At 10:20 a.m., during a gym class, a 12-year-old student experienced sudden cardiac arrest while playing basketball. This medical emergency prompted an immediate response from the Milan Area Fire Department, local police, and Huron Valley Ambulance services in a coordinated effort of life-saving procedures. Gym teacher Vicki Etter and school nurse Dawn Hynds, who immediately began life-saving efforts, including CPR and utilizing an AED to restart the student’s heart. The student was back home with no permanent cardiac damage.
High school senior with chemo-resistant cancer hopes for miracle with holistic treatment in Mexico
April 3, 2024
Reedley, Calif. – 18-year-old Malachi Rios, a high school senior, is once again fighting for his life. His battle against cancer began in late 2022 when he was diagnosed with stage IV testicular cancer that metastasized to his back and lungs. When Malachi went into remission by May of 2023, he was determined to return to the football field, and he did. “Right when season was starting to begin, he found out that it came back. Through a lot of headstrong will from him, the doctors decided to give him two games and he took advantage of those two games,” said Tony Gates, head football coach at Reedley High School. After undergoing heavy chemotherapy in San Francisco, meant to knock the cancer out, he got a devastating prognosis. “At this point, all the treatments that are available to him failed, they’re basically deeming him incurable at this point,” said Gates. Incurable by chemo and radiation, Malachi and his family are praying for a miracle. They started looking into alternative medicine and found ‘Hope 4 Cancer,’ a center in Cancun, Mexico, which offers a holistic approach to treatment and has helped thousands of patients over the last 24 years. But the renewed hope comes with a large price tag. “The cost is around $50,000 for the treatment. But she’s hoping that the community will once again rally behind Malachi as they have already,” said Gates.
Probation union president suffers medical emergency after state board meeting
April 12, 2024
LA County, CA – As you know yesterday the Board of State and Community Corrections (BSCC) held a crucial meeting about the fate of the juvenile halls and the union president, Stacy Ford, was in attendance. Apparently, he suffered a cardio-related medical emergency sometime after the BSCC meeting, which could result in him being placed on light duty.
No age reported.
Greece mom, in heart failure last week, now making major progress
March 22, 2024
Rochester, N.Y. – A local mother fighting for her life is making remarkable progress. Exactly a week ago, we told you Sydney Pelusio needed a new heart or a miracle. Well, it looks like she got her miracle. The mom of two from Greece [NY] has shocked her doctors, as her heart has started working on its own again. Her family shared their story with News10NBC investigative reporter Jennifer Lewke on Friday of last week. Sydney Pelusio was a healthy, 32-year-old wife and mother. She got flu-like symptoms and within hours of going to urgent care, she was in total heart failure. She was put to the top of the transplant list. But now, it looks like she won’t need that heart after all. One week ago, the situation was bleak. “She’s in complete heart failure; she is on an ECMO (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation), which is a machine that is pumping the blood for her; she has a device in her left ventricle called an impella, which is emptying the blood from that ventricle into her aorta — that is keeping her alive,” Sue Vandervoort, Sydney’s mother, said last week. But surrounded by her family and friends, and treated by a team of the area’s top heart doctors, Sydney has made miraculous progress. Amazingly, Sydney underwent a five-hour surgery to have both the ECMO and impella removed from her body. Her heart is now functioning completely on its own — something doctors didn’t think possible just a week ago.
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UK: TV star Louise Thompson’s stoma bag, Willie Limond’s “life-threatening seizure”; Italy: Tonia Romano’s “sudden health problem”; SA: gospel singer Fikile Mlomo has a tumor on her spinal cord
“Worker collapses on construction site”; 19-yr-old collapses w/ a “sudden illness”; Region Council interrupted by spectator’s “sudden illness”; soccer match suspended due to home fan’s “illness”; more
| MARK CRISPIN MILLERAPR 16 |
UNITED KINGDOM
TV star Louise Thompson has stoma bag fitted after ‘life-changing’ diagnosis
April 12, 2024
Former Made In Chelsea star Louise Thompson [34] has revealed she has undergone surgery to get a stoma bag fitted after a series of serious health concerns. In an announcement made via social media, Louise asked her followers to “be kind” following the news. The reality TV star has been vocal about her ongoing health battles with ulcerative colitis and autoimmune disease lupus. According to Crohn’s & Colitis UK, the condition occurs when the body’s immune system has a fault, and ultimately starts attacking the bowel. Although there’s no definitive cause, which can vary from person to person, it’s thought to be caused by a mix of a person’s genes, bacteria in the gut, as well as environmental factors.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Willie Limond in critical condition following suspected seizure
April 10, 2024
Former British and Commonwealth champion Willie Limond (42-6, 13 KOs) has been hospitalized after a suspected seizure and is reportedly in a life-threatening condition in hospital. The 45-year-old Limond had been due to appear at a public workout in Glasgow, Scotland, last weekend to promote his upcoming fight against Joe Laws (14-2, 5 KOs) on May 3 at the Emirates Arena, Glasgow and was to headline the card promoted by St. Andrews Sporting Club. Limond was reportedly found unresponsive in a residential street in Coatbridge, east of the city of Glasgow, as a statement from Police Scotland confirmed a man aged 45 was found in a critical condition and admitted to Monklands Hospital, where he remains currently. Limond had decided to come out of retirement and fight Laws following his eight-round stoppage defeat to former three-weight world champion Ricky Burns in September of last year.
“My life will be short but meaningful” says a father-of-two who has been diagnosed with terminal bowel cancer
April 11, 2024
A Northampton father with terminal bowel cancer plans to take on a “unique and inspiring challenge” this summer. Glenn Utteridge, who was diagnosed at the age of 44, has been supported by more than £34,000 raised for alternative treatments to help prolong his life. He shared the series of unfortunate events that happened at the start of 2023, leaving him knocked unconscious, suffering six fractures, undergoing major surgeries and discovering advanced cancer. At the start of last year, until February 6, Glenn would have described himself as a “fit and active dad, enjoying life with his wife and looking after their seven and 10-year-old children”. While out on a cycle, Glenn was hit by a coach in a serious road accident. Being thrown off his bike knocked him unconscious and left him with fractures in his back and neck. While in hospital, scans revealed stage four colon cancer that had spread to his liver and he was readmitted four weeks later for an emergency operation to remove the original tumour and fix a blockage.
ITALY
Island of the Famous, suffered serious health problems: the adventure began in the worst possible way
April 11, 2024
A competitor has already experienced a sudden illness before the start on The Island of the Famous 2024. Here’s what’s happening in Honduras. L’Isola dei Famosi represents one of the most challenging reality shows on Italian television. Competitors are put to the test by the game’s challenges. We are talking about Tonia Romano. The 36-year-old was supposed to participate in the reality show together with her companions. Something, however, went wrong. The presenter attributed this absence to a sudden health problem. The details have not yet been revealed, but it seems very unlikely that the interested party will be able to join the cast at a later time.
He feels ill while looking for asparagus: saved by the police
April 12, 2024
Yesterday evening the firefighters of the Fiuggi territorial detachment intervened in Serrone to rescue a 70-year-old man with a heart condition who fell ill in the high mountains while he was looking for asparagus in an inaccessible area. The man was found by the firefighters and was immediately entrusted to the medical care of the 118 health workers. After the initial medical treatment, the elderly man was transported to the valley with a tarpaulin for the injured with the collaboration of the 118 staff.
Transport downstream was difficult due to the little space between the rocks and the strength of the injured man. Having arrived in a not inaccessible place, the rescuers were joined by some citizens present in a commercial business in via S. Quirico.
Molveno – Worker collapses on the construction site
April 11, 2024
He collapsed to the ground while he was working on a construction site in Molveno, Trentino. Immediately helped by colleagues who raised the alarm, the 22-year-old worker was transferred by helicopter to the Santa Chiara hospital in Trento and hospitalized with a reserved prognosis. Rescuers and law enforcement are on site reconstructing the dynamics of what happened. From what we learn, it may have been a sudden illness that caused the young man to collapse. Inspectors from the workplace safety unit of the provincial health company are listening to the other workers.
Sudden illness, 19-year-old girl lying on the ground
April 9, 2024
Another sudden illness. This time it was a 19-year-old girl who was found on the ground in via della Ricocchi late yesterday evening (8 April). Rescuers from the Yellow Cross of Ancona intervened on her site and took her to Torrette. She is not in serious condition. The young woman, of foreign origins, was in the city for study reasons.
The 11-year-old who fell ill suddenly when he left school is fine
April 11, 2024
Good news has reached us regarding the health conditions of the 11-year-old boy who suddenly fell ill this morning at the end of the school day at the Dante Alighieri institute based in the square of the same name in Bellona. The boy who left the institute would have just had time to tell his mother, a policewoman, that he was not feeling well when he collapsed to the ground. Once emergency services were activated, the eleven-year-old was transported to the Sant’Anna and San Sebastiano hospital where he was entrusted to the care of doctors. By this evening he could return to his home.
Region Council, sudden illness of a spectator, session interrupted
April 10, 2024
L’Aquila – Moments of fear in the regional council: a woman, the mother of the former FdI regional councilor Leonardo D’Addazio, who was attending the session in the space reserved for the public, fell ill. The woman was promptly helped by a group of people including the two doctors, the new regional councilor Mario Quaglieri, of Fdi, and the former center-right regional councilor and councilor, Giorgio De Matteis, deputy provincial coordinator of Fratelli d’ Italy, also a doctor. The woman then regained consciousness and was taken away by ambulance for checks.
No age reported.
Palmese-Manfredonia suspended due to an illness in a home fan
April 7, 2024
The match between Palmese and Manfredonia was suspended due to illness. Around the 50th minute, a home fan felt ill and the referee decided to suspend the match. At the moment the condition of the fan is unknown and he was immediately transported to hospital.
No age reported.
He fell ill on the street in Calcinaia and collapsed to the ground
April 8, 2024
This morning, Monday 8 April, a person apparently felt ill while walking in via S. Ubaldesca in Calcinaia and fell to the ground. The alarm went off at 11.50am. An ambulance from the Misericordia di Vicopisano intervened on site with a doctor on board, who transported the person in code red to the emergency room of the Lotti hospital in Pontedera.
No age reported.
Man suffers illness at the go-kart track
April 7, 2024
A sudden illness is the basis of the 118 helicopter’s intervention at the go-kart track in via San Benigno, with the health team called to provide first aid to a man in his sixties.
Transported to the Santa Croce hospital in Cuneo, his condition is serious.
Milan Marathon, sudden illness for Gallera during the sports competition. The former Councilor had almost finished the race
April 7, 2024
Milan Marathon ended in the worst way possible for Giulio Gallera. The former Regional Councilor for Welfare took part in the Milanese running race as he is a great sports enthusiast. The situation, however, did not go as expected: the Regional Councilor had almost completed the journey when, suddenly, he had to deal with an illness. He felt faint and collapsed to the ground. The ambulance and emergency services immediately took him to the nearby field hospital. They gave him two infusions and the situation went away. Gallera subsequently reassured everyone on social media: “It can happen,” he wrote, “great physical test, but too hot a day. I got into trouble.” A significant awareness from the 54-year-old who, being a great sports fan, is no stranger to this type of event.
SOUTH AFRICA
Gospel star Fikile Mlomo seeks donations from Mzansi for her spinal cord surgery
April 12, 2024
Social media has been buzzing with concern and questions regarding gospel singer Fikile Mlomo’s health struggles and how crucial it is. According to the news and gossip page MDNews, the star is seeking some assistance from Mzansi to pay for her upcoming spinal cord surgery. The Ngicela Inkozo hitmaker has been struggling to walk for two months, and she was diagnosed with a spinal cord tumour. The gossip page wrote: “According to ZiMoja, gospel singer Fikile Mlomo (42) is appealing for donations for her spinal cord surgery. The Ngicela Inkozo singer has been hospitalised for two months after struggling to walk and was recently diagnosed with a spinal cord tumour. Fikile was healthy, bubbly and her usual self, but suddenly fell ill one morning with a sore back and could not walk. She was wheelchair-bound for a few weeks while doctors were doing several tests to get to the bottom of her condition. After two months in the hospital, Fikile tells ZiMoja that she was diagnosed with a spinal cord tumour, which according to Mayo Clinic, it might be caused by something in the environment such as exposure to certain chemicals…”
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DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Oriane Filhol (left-wing politician who campaigned for the rights of migrants) and Pippa Bacca (hitchhiker in Turkey who tried to promote world peace), both attacked & killed by islamic 6th century
beasts; they thought the migrant, illegal neanderthal medieval 6th century islamic jihadist beast was PEACEFUL; two women, idealists, SAME outcome, rape & death and beatings by the islamic male
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 15 |
‘The woman was last seen on March 31 in the mainly industrial city of Gebze, while hitchhiking to Israel in the wedding dress as part of her “Brides on Tour” project aiming to plead for peace in conflict areas. She disappeared after using her credit card around noon. Police found her naked body hidden in bushes in a forested area near Gebze, after questioning the man suspected of the murder late Friday, the governor’s office said.’
‘A left-wing politician who campaigned for the rights of migrants was brutally beaten by a gang of ‘North African’ men yards from her own front door in France.
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay NewsWEF Pushing Digital IDs to Enforce Vaccination ComplianceThe World Economic Forum (WEF) is pushing for digital ID technology to be used as a tool to enforce global vaccination compliance.READ MOREThousands of Japanese Citizens Flood Streets to Protest WHO, WEF, Bill Gates, VaccinesTens of thousands of Japanese citizens have taken to the streets in huge rallies to protest threats to the nation’s sovereignty from globalist outside forces.READ MOREElection Loophole Allows Illegal Aliens to Vote in WisconsinA disturbing loophole has been exposed in Wisconsin that allows illegal aliens to vote in American elections.READ MORERFK Jr Qualifies for Iowa Ballot after Special ‘One-Day Blitz’ in StateAs many Americans prepare for a rematch of the 2020 election this November, a third candidate is also trying his best to make waves.READ MOREJonathan Turley: Trump Has ‘Very Significant Advantage’ in ‘Hush Money’ TrialLegal scholar Professor Jonathan Turley has revealed that President Donald Trump could take the upper hand in his “hush money” trial by leveraging a “very significant advantage.”READ MORE24-Year-Old Italian Soccer Star Suffers Heart Attack Mid-Game24-year-old Italian soccer star Evan Ndicka has collapsed suddenly while clutching his chest in the middle of a game.READ MOREIran Demands U.S Stand Down in Wake of Missile Attack on IsraelIran launched an unprecedented attack on Israel over the weekend as missiles and unmanned suicide drones rained down on the Jewish state.READ MOREVatican Prosecutors Charge Italian Journalist with ‘Defamation’ for Criticizing Pope FrancisVatican prosecutors have filed charges against a prominent Italian journalist for criticizing the Catholic Church and Pope Francis.READ MORE |
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EVOL NEWS
NEWS ADDICT
| Top Virologist Warns ‘Fully Vaxxed’ Face ‘Huge Wave’ of Sudden DeathsA world-renowned virologist has just issued a grim warning for the Covid mRNA-vaccinated population.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Facebook Censors Movie Exposing ‘Climate Crisis’ as Globalist HoaxFacebook has blocked users from viewing any information related to a bombshell new documentary film that provided conclusive evidence proving the so-called “climate crisis” is a globalist hoax.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Biden Poised to Issue Exec. Order on Border Crisis That Critics are Calling an ‘Election-Year Ploy’President Joe Biden is reportedly considering using a new executive action to stem the flow of illegal migrants crossing into the U.S., a move experts say would do little to actually move the needle on the border crisis. Biden said this week he is “examining” whether or not to take executive action and raise asylum standards, making it more difficult …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
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8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
AUSTRALIA
Why? what are they afraid of?
(zerohedge)
Aussie Govt Orders Facebook And X To Remove Muslim Knife Attack Video
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 03:45 PM
Parishioners and live stream audience members for the Christ The Good Shepherd Church in Sydney, Australia were enjoying a sermon by popular conservative Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel when a young male Muslim assailant entered the church and stabbed him repeatedly with a knife. The live stream clip was immediately shared far and wide on social media with X and Facebook being the easiest sites to view the video.
Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel is a leader of the Assyrian Orthodox sect who has a global following. He has expressed stalwart conservative views on Islam, the LGBT community, and was vocal in his sermons against lockdowns and vaccinations during COVID-19. Four other member of the church were injured while subduing the attacker; the young man also reportedly cut off some of his own fingers during the struggle.
The Australia government through their “E-Safety Commissioner” has voiced concerns over the spread of the clip and has “ordered” Facebook and X to remove if from public access within 24 hours on the grounds that it will “make people emotional” and “cause disharmony.” How much power Australia’s E-Safety Commissioner actually has to follow through on her threats remains to be seen.
The identity of the attacker has yet to be revealed by authorities, but he is allegedly 16-years old and was recorded smiling after stabbing the Bishop while praising Allah. Once again, westerners have been treated to a lesson in cultural diversity.
The motivation behind Australia’s effort to have the event removed from social media is blatantly transparent. If the attack involved anyone other than a Muslim it is unlikely they would have an interest in censoring the video. However, such horrifying incidents involving potential migrants create growing opposition to the open border policies of western progressive governments. So, rather than addressing the root of the problem (mutually exclusive cultures), officials have decided it’s better to hide it instead.
Public outcry over the attack has led to protests in the streets of Sydney with many Australians becoming angry and tired of the special protections allotted to people with the “right beliefs” and ethnic background. To their credit, the Sidney police have labeled the stabbing a terrorist attack with adequate evidence of religious motivation. This, though, does not help if the attack is simply allowed to fade into the background until the next time the third world decides to force itself onto the western public.
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YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0633 UP .0009
USA/ YEN 154.65 UP 0.444 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2456 UP .0005
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3787 UP .0008 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 8 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 50.38 PTS OR 1.65%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 351.49 PTS OR 2.12%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.84%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 351.49 PTS OR 2.12%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 50.38 PTS OR 1.65%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.84 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 761.60 PTS OR 1.94%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2372.50
silver:$28.28
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 106/02 UP 2 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.176% UP 6 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.867% UP 0 AND 6/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.327 UP 7 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.906 UP 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4845 UP 6 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0628 DOWN 0.0004 or 4 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.58 UP 0.373 OR YEN IS DOWN 37 BASIS PTS
Great Britain/USA 1.2437 UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0028 OR 28 BASIS pts to 1.3814
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2385
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2638)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.50 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.867…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.657% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.760 UP 2 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.968 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2385.20
SILVER AT 11;30: 28.28
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 145.17 PTS OR 1.82%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 260,,35 PTS OR 1.44%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 112.50 PTS OR 1.40%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 160.30 PTS OR 1.50%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 560,45PTS OR 1.05%
WTI Oil price 84.75 12: EST/
Brent Oil: 90.10 12:00 EST WEST TEXAS: 85.51
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 94.41 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 66/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4845 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3390 UP 7 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0627 UP.0002 OR 2 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2437 DOWN .0009 or 9 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.342 UP 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .867
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154. 67 UP 0.462//YEN DOWN 46 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3814 UP .0027 CDN dollar DOWN 27
basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 85.44
Brent OIL: 90.09
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 4.662%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS PTS to 4.767%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 4.972%
USA dollar index: 106.11 UP 11 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.50 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 94.42 DOWN 0 AND 67/100 roubles
GOLD 2,394.75 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.32 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 63.53 PTS OR 0.17%
NASDAQ DOWN 6.53 PTS OR 0.034%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.18 DOWN 1.05 PTS OR 5.77%
GLD: $221.22 UP 0.27 OR 0.12%
SLV/ $25.80 DOWN .61 OR 2.31%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Dollar & Yields Soar As Fed-Fears Trump WW3-Worries
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Mixed data overnight out of China (GDP beat, Retail sales & Industrial production miss) was matched by an equally divergent day of macro in the US with ugly housing data but strong industrial production, but once again the markets were ping-ponged by Fed fears (rate-cuts-off – Fed Vice-Chair Jefferson and Powell both sang from the same ‘higher for longer’ hymnsheet with the latter finally admitting that “recent [inflation] data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence”) and MidEast tensions (WW3-on, but not yet – Israeli war cabinet plan is ‘keep Iran guessing’).
All of which pushed rate-cut expectations lower in the US…
Source: Bloomberg
In fact, the majority of investors now see 2 rate-cuts this year…
The odds of a June rate- cut have tumbled to just 15%…
Source: Bloomberg
…and pushed the 2Y yield back above 5.0% for the first time since November…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were 5-6bps higher overall today (together) but on the week, for now, the short-end is slightly outperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
In fact, it’s been a wild ride for all yields…
Zerohedge
@zerohedge
·This was posted last Dec when the 10Y was 3.84%. It is now 4.66%
Dec 21, 2023
Why The ‘Most Consensus Trade’ Of 2024 Will Blow Up In The Market’s Face https://zerohedge.com/markets/why-most-consensus-trade-2024-will-blow-markets-face
Stocks were volatile today amid the surge in yields and Powell’s comments, with Small Caps lagging in the red along with a small loss for the S&P and Nasdaq unch. The last minute saw a big sell program hit to ruin most people’s day…
Goldman’s trading desk summed it up as follows: “Overall feels quiet though market volumes look elevated…skewed around -3% better for sale with LO’s leading more of the supply. “
MS rallied on earnings but BAC did not, with C catching down to GS…
Source: Bloomberg
MAG7 stocks went nowhere today…
Source: Bloomberg
Month-to-date, there seems like differentiation between what’s being sold – Defensives and Cyclicals both down equally…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was the only other notable mover – rising for the fifth straight day to fresh highs since November – forming a ‘Golden Cross’ (50DMA crossing above the 200DMA)
Source: Bloomberg
Oil ended unchanged…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold managed small gains…
Source: Bloomberg
…ending at a new record closing high…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto was oddly quiet…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Joe and Jerome have a problem…
Source: Bloomberg
Get back to work Mr. SPR!
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
US Housing Starts Collapsed In March – Biggest Drop Since COVID Lockdowns
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 08:43 AM
The roller-coaster ride in housing permits, starts, and completions in the last few months is set to continue today… and ‘surprise’ they did. After a big (+10.7%) surge in February, Starts crashed 14.7% MoM in March (massively worse than the 2.,4% drfop expected). Building Permits also plunged (-4.3% MoM vs -0.9% exp)…
For context, this is the largest MoM drop in housing starts since the COVID lockdowns…
Source: Bloomberg
It was a bloodbath across the board with Rental Unit Starts plummeting 20.8% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
That pushed total multi-family starts SAAR down to its lowest since COVID lockdowns…
The plunge in permits was less dramatic and driven completely by single-family permits down 5.7% to 973K SAAR, from 1.032MM, this is the lowest since October. Multi-family permits flat at 433K
Intriguingly, while starts and completions plunged in March, the BLS believes that construction jobs surged to a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, just what will homebuilders do now that expectations for 2024 rate-cuts have collapsed?
Source: Bloomberg
One thing is for sure – do not trust what homebuilders ‘say’ (as NAHB confidence jumped to its highest since May 2022 at the same time as housing starts crashed)…
Source: Bloomberg
If they build them, will homebuyers come?
Source: Bloomberg
Maybe, but it will be bloody expensive for them!
end
US Industrial Production Is Flat YoY In March
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 09:27 AM
US Industrial Production rose 0.4% MoM in March – as expected – which was… wait for it… the same rise as in February after that data was revised notably higher. However, even with the revision and the subsequent rise, Industrial Production remains unchanged YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
We can’t help but see the irony that after we highlighted the serial downward revisions in data last month, that all of a sudden February’s Industrial Production data is revised drastically higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Capacity Utilization ticked modestly higher (from a downwardly revised 78.2% to 78.4% (below expectations)…
Source: Bloomberg
US Manufacturing also saw February’s data revised higher (from +0.8% to +1.2% MoM) and March rose 0.5% MoM (better than the 0.2% rise expected). That lifted YoY Manufacturing up by 0.8%…
Source: Bloomberg
Soft and Hard manufacturing data in agreement that things are turning up…
Nothing but blue skies here for The Fed to cut rates into… not!
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Dr Daniel Lacalle…..
Central Banks Are Wrong About Rate-Cuts
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 07:20 AM
When we talk about monetary policy, people do not understand the importance of interest rates reflecting the reality of inflation and risk. Interest rates are the price of risk and manipulating them down leads to bubbles that end in financial crises, while imposing too high rates can penalize the economy. Ideally, interest rates would flow freely and there would be no central bank to fix them.
A price signal as important as interest rates or the amount of money would prevent the creation of bubbles and, above all, the disproportionate accumulation of risk. The risk of fixing rates too high does not exist when central banks impose reference rates, as they will always make it easier for state borrowing—artificial currency creation—in the most convenient—what they call “no distortions”—and cheap way.
Many analysts say that central banks do not impose interest rates; they only reflect what the market demands. Surprisingly, if that were the case, we wouldn’t have financial traders stuck to screens on a Thursday waiting to decipher what the rate decision is going to be. Moreover, if the central bank only responds to market demand, it is a good reason to let interest rates float freely.
Citizens perceive that raising interest rates with high inflation is harmful; however, they do not seem to understand that what was really destructive was having negative real and nominal interest rates. That’s what encourages economic agents to take far more risks than we can take and to disguise excess debt with a false sense of security. At the same time, it is surprising that citizens praise low rates but then complain that home prices and risky assets rise too fast.
Inflation is a huge advantage for the currency issuer. It blames everyone and everybody for the rise in prices, except for the only thing that makes aggregate prices go up, consolidate that increase, and continue to rise, even at a more moderate rate: printing much more currency than the private economy demands and setting rates well below the real risk levels.
The benefit of statism is that it puts the blame for high interest rates on banks, just as it blames supermarkets for consumer prices.
Who prints currency and disguises risk?
Of course, we look at the ECB and the Fed, who dictate the increase in money supply through repurchases and fixed interest rates. However, central banks do not buy back state assets, print money, or impose negative real interest rates because they are evil alchemists. They do so because the state’s deficit—which is artificial monetary creation—remains unsustainable, public debt is atrophied, and state solvency is worsened by imbalanced public accounts. The central bank is not responsible for implementing fiscal policy. Thus, the state is the one that prints money out of nowhere and passes the imbalance to the citizens through inflation and taxes.
Banks, in an open economy, do not create money out of nowhere; they lend to real projects that are expected to be repaid with interest, and those loans have collateral. If commercial banks created money out of nowhere, none of them would go bankrupt. They only create money out of nowhere when regulation imposes risk-disconnected rates and eliminates the need for capital to sustain the government by accumulating its bonds and loans under the false construction that they are “no-risk assets.” Thus, the castle of cards built under the disguise of public sector risk always creates inflation, financial crises, secular stagnation, and liquidity traps. The amount of money created goes to unproductive expenditure, destroys the purchasing power of the currency, impoverishes citizens, and at the same time decapitalizes the most fragile companies, SMEs (small and medium enterprises). That’s what they call the social use of money. Seriously.
The ECB has announced a possible interest rate cut in June that is in danger of being premature and wrong. First, because money supply, credit demand, and supply are rebounding, inflation remains persistent and above the 2% target. Furthermore, the underlying trend is a much higher inflation level than the ECB’s target, even after two changes in the CPI calculation. After a 20% accumulated consumer price level since 2019, calling victory on inflation after two changes in the calculation of CPI and still elevated core inflation is insane. If we see the rise in non-replaceable goods prices, we can understand why citizens are angry. Real non-replaceable goods’ CPI is probably closer to 4-5% per year.
The ECB rate hikes are signaled by many market participants as the cause of the euro zone’s stagnation, but curiously, no one mentions that the euro area was already experiencing massive stagnation due to negative interest rates. Besides, if you need to have real negative rates to “grow,” you’re not growing but accumulating toxic risk. The ECB knows that the base effect, which played in favor of year-on-year inflation in 2023, will not be supportive in 2024. They also know that monetary aggregates were down a few months ago but are rebounding, and that the supply of credit has not collapsed. The ECB, like the Federal Reserve, knows that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and that there is no cost-push inflation, “greedflation,” or similar statist excuses. None of those factors can cause aggregate prices to soar, consolidate, or continue to rise; it is only the destruction of the currency’s purchasing power that causes inflation.
Of course, no central bank will acknowledge that inflation is its fault, among other things, because no central bank increases the money supply at will but to finance an unsustainable public deficit. However, no central bank will challenge a financial structure that is based on the myth that public debt is risk-free. Central banks know that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, which is why they attack rising consumer prices with rate hikes and money supply reductions. They just do it mildly because governments benefit from inflation.
The problem of lowering interest rates now, when there is no evidence of having controlled inflation and achieved a target that already erodes the purchasing power of the currency by 2% annually, is to fall into the narrative that the eurozone is in a poor economic situation because of monetary policy when it is due to the wrong fiscal policy, the disaster of the Next Generation EU Funds, whose failure is already only comparable to the forgotten Juncker Plan, a shortsighted and destructive energy, agricultural, and industrial policy, and a taxation system that shifts innovation and technology to other countries.
The ECB is aware that interest rates are not high and that the system’s money supply has not decreased as expected. In fact, it continues to repurchase outstanding bonds and will not carry out a significant reduction in its balance sheet in real terms until the end of the year. Lowering interest rates now includes the risk of depreciating the euro against the dollar and thus increasing the euro area’s import bill in real terms, reducing the inflow of reserves into the eurozone, and further encouraging public spending and government debt that has not been contained in countries like Italy and Spain, which boast of “growing” by massively increasing debt and where inflation, moreover, is not under control. All this reminds us of the mistakes of the past when Greece boasted to be the EU’s growth engine, and many said that Germany was Europe’s “sick member.”
The ECB cannot pretend to be the Bank of Japan for two reasons: the eurozone lacks the luxury of Japanese society’s dollar savings structure or its iron citizen discipline, and, above all, because the failure of Japan’s ultra-Keynesianism has brought the yen to a 35-year low against the dollar.
To those who say that the euro and the ECB are the problem, I recommend that you exercise your imagination of what Spain, Portugal, or Italy would be with their own currency and populist governments printing as if Argentina were Switzerland. You don’t have to imagine it; remember when these countries had an inflation rate of 14–15% and they destroyed savings and real wages with the falsehood of “competitive” devaluations? Not that long ago.
Don’t be fooled. The eurozone is not weak due to monetary policy. The eurozone is weak even with monetary policy.
SAN FRANCISCO
Crime-Ridden San Francisco Wants To Punish Grocery Stores For Fleeing Said Crime
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 08:40 PM
Unpunished crime is so out of control in San Francisco that the city now wants to punish grocery stores who want to leave.
Under the ‘Grocery Protection Act’ introduced by city Board of Supervisors member Dean Preston (Democratic Socialist), stores that want to flee all the crime and other increased liabilities will have to provide the city with six months advanced notice, and make efforts to find a replacement supermarket for the location being vacated, Benzinga reports.
The move comes after While Foods shut down its flagship store in San Francisco after being open for just over a year, citing employee safety concerns.
The reports show how workers at the store were routinely threatened with weapons, while vagrants would throw food at staff, engage in fights, and even defecate on the floor.
One incident saw a homeless man with a knife spray an employee with a fire extinguisher.
…
There were also cases of drug overdoses with one man dying in the bathroom after overdosing on fentanyl and methamphetamine. Thefts were also common with large quantities of alcohol stolen from the store. –Daily Mail
Nearly 570 emergency calls were logged from the location, including one call with desperate pleas to the police saying “male [with] machete is back,” and “another security guard was just assaulted.”
Former SF Board of Supervisors member Matt Dorsey (who wasn’t assaulted at Whole Foods) said he was “incredibly disappointed” at the closing.
“Our neighborhood waited a long time for this supermarket, but we’re also well aware of problems they’ve experienced with drug-related retail theft, adjacent drug markets and the many safety issues related to them,” Dorsey said.
According to Preston, “Our communities need notice, an opportunity to be heard and a transition plan when major neighborhood grocery stores plan to shut their doors.”
Preston’s proposal would allow anyone impacted by a noncompliant store closure to initiate legal proceedings.
As Benzinga further notes, “It’s not just grocery stores that have had enough of the city. Other large businesses that recently closed their downtown San Francisco locations include Adidas, AT&T Inc., Nordstrom and Lego Group.”
Maybe start punishing crime?
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP STORIES
FUNDING FOR UKRAINE IS A LOST CAUSE.
They have already lost the war
(zerohedge)
Johnson Unveils Separate Israel, Ukraine Funding Bills That MTG Calls A “Scam”
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 09:30 AM
After months of pushback over packages to send US-taxpayer-funded foreign aid to Israel and Ukraine, House Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled a plan Monday evening to hold four different votes on bills which would decouple aid by country, including Taiwan. Johnson will also put forth a House-approved bill that could ban TikTok from the US, and a measure aimed at satisfying Republican foreign policy demands.
According to WaPo, a draft of Johnson’s plan mirrors a Senate bill, but may not include humanitarian aid for Gaza. In February, the Senate approved a bill which allocates $95.3 billion in supplemental spending, including $60 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel, $9 billion to Gaza, and $5 billion towards Indo-Pacific allies against Chinese threats.
And while Johnson pretended that the Senate bill would be a ‘non-starter’ in the House without border security measures, there’s zero in there for border security demanded by House Freedom Caucus Republicans as a condition of approving foreign aid.
“I hate this, that [Johnson’s] saying it and not following through with it, that the hill to die on was the border and he would not put Ukraine up without the border. Looks like that’s going down the tubes,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) following the meeting.
Johnson said after the meeting that “Every member ultimately will be able to vote their own conscience on all of these matters and everybody have the opportunity to weigh in,” Johnson said following a Monday GOP conference meeting. “I think the final product will be something that everybody can take confidence in because they got to vote their district.”
During Monday’s meeting, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) suggested passing a rule that would instruct the Senate to take up a measure known as H.R.2 approved by House Republicans last year which would severely restrict migrant entry into the US, before taking up any House-passed national security package.
A seemingly defeated Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) left Monday’s meeting speechless, saying “It’s just what it is.”
That said, WaPo reports that it’s possible Johnson may work in border security measures to the fourth bill, which is essentially a GOP wish list, or through an amendment process.
Scam!
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Grene, who’s been threatening to introduce a measure to oust Johnson, called the plan a “scam” that she’s “firmly” against. That said, she hasn’t said yet whether she’ll move against Johnson over concerns that it could jeopardize the Republican majority in the House.
“I support the majority and I want it next time. So I’m being careful,” said Greene. “He’s definitely not going to be speaker next Congress if we’re lucky enough to have the majority.”
Johnson responded to Greene, saying “I don’t spend my time worrying about motions to vacate. We’re having to govern here and we’re going to do our job. I don’t know how that shakes out.”
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) told Punchbowl News Monday night that he’s opposed to the package of four bills, saying he received no clarity from Johnson over his intentions.
As Punchbowl further reports:
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer and his whip team are going to have quite the job of neutralizing conservative opposition. Johnson, Emmer and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise only have 72 hours to assemble a coalition to pass the rule and underlying bill — perhaps even using different groups of GOP lawmakers to do so.
There’s no indication of when the bill text would be ready, however once it’s unveiled House rules provide 72 hours for members to read it before voting. Complicating matters is a week-long break the House is scheduled to take on Thursday, while Johnson said the earliest the House could consider the bills is Friday if legislative text is released by Tuesday (today).
If the bills advanced to floor debate but the House still can’t agree to pass them, Johnson may be out of options. To that end, House Democrats are collecting signatures for a petition which could trigger a vote on the Senate bill – which currently has the backing of 194 Democrats and one Republican.
END
Brink Of Unrest? Migrants “Flood” NYC City Hall In Protest Of Losing Luxury Hotel Rooms
TUESDAY, APR 16, 2024 – 12:25 PM
New York City could be on the cusp of social unrest as hundreds of migrants have flooded the grounds of City Hall in Lower Manhattan to protest the scaling down of their luxury hotel accommodations (funded by us, the taxpayers).
The Babylon Bee’s Ashley St. Clair posted on X a disturbing photo of migrants “flooding NYC City Hall to protest being moved to shelters instead of the luxury hotels.”
Subscribe
Migrants are now flooding NYC City Hall to protest being moved to shelters instead of the luxury hotels.
·
1.3M Views
Elon Musk responded with “Wow,” while another X user posted a video of angry migrants surrounding the City Hall complex building. Security is beefed up as the situation remains tense.
Migrants are now flooding NYC City Hall to protest being moved to shelters instead of the luxury hotels.
·
Hundreds of migrants are in NYC City Hall Park to protest against being moved to Shelters instead of the LUXURY HOTELS
·
3,566 Views
The migrant protest comes one day after pro-Palestinian groups shuttered critical infrastructure nationwide across various metro areas of the US, including the Brooklyn Bridge.
EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: This is the exact moment when “Free Palestine” pro HAMAS terrorist supporters charged the fence next to the Brooklyn Bridge yesterday in NYC, and stormed the bridge. Many of the “protesters” got into physical altercations with NYPD and were arrested.
·
38.6K Views
The risk of social instabilities nationwide is elevated as the Biden administration (through open southern borders), and a shadowy network of NGOs have facilitated the greatest invasion of illegal aliens this nation has ever seen.
Allowing millions of unvetted people from third-world countries – some of which hate the United States – as well as are accustomed to violence – are ingredients to spark a perfect storm of social unrest if Democrats don’t continue spending taxpayer funds on luxurious hotel rooms, fancy meals, and monthly stipends for illegals.
Threats of migrant unrest are a national security threat that Democrats are too embarrassed even to acknowledge because their failed policies are sparking this mess. Democrats are risking the health and safety of law-abiding citizens and the nation as a whole to steal future elections and stack the Census.
KING REPORT
| The King Report April 16, 2024 Issue 7222 | Independent View of the News |
| @kristina_wong: Multiple senior US officials told reporters on a background call on Sunday that Iran intended to cause significant death and damage in Israel and batted down the idea that Iran gave the US prior warning of the attack (and thus the narrative it was for Iran’s domestic audience). @RNCResearch: Biden — slurring as he reads directly from his pre-written notes — takes a victory lap over Iran’s attack on Israel. (Humiliating for US!) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1779914015310762348 Biden cheat sheet for Iraq PM meeting caught on camera — including instructions to ‘pause’ Al-Sudani did not rely on note cards of any kind when he made brief remarks following Biden… https://nypost.com/2024/04/15/us-news/biden-cheat-sheet-for-iraq-pm-meeting-caught-on-camera-including-instructions-to-pause/ On Monday in Asia, Aluminum jumped 9.4% and nickel soared 8.8% due to US & UK imposed sanctions on Russian metals. Dear Jerome, et al, this is inflationary! Apple’s iPhone Shipments Plunge 10% as Android Rivals Rise Apple Inc.’s iPhone shipments were down nearly 10% in the first quarter of the year… The global mobile market rose to 289.4 million handsets shipped, marking a 7.8% rise from a year ago. Samsung Electronics Co. regained the top spot. Budget-focused brand Transsion jumped 85% in shipments, while Xiaomi Corp. bounced back to close the gap on second-place Apple… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-iphone-shipments-plunge-10-001359770.html FBI reportedly opens criminal probe into container ship crashing into Francis Scott Key Bridge https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/fbi-opens-criminal-probe-container-ship-crashing-francis-scott-key US March Retail Sales 0.7% m/m, 0.4% expected; Ex-Autos 1.1%, 0.5% expected; Ex-Autos & Gas 1.0%, 0.4% expected. Retail Sales are NOT adjusted for inflation or EASTER. @NeelyTamminga: Retail sales for March likely to come in stronger owing to calendar, tax refunds, and easier comparisons. Note: Easter shift called out as a contributing lift in sales in Costco’s release. https://twitter.com/NeelyTamminga/status/1778436445620904233 @RealEJAntoni: Retail sales last month look like they’re up 15.3% since Mar ’21, but if you adjust for inflation, the real change is -2.2% over the last 3 years – consumers aren’t buying more, they’re just paying more; families have clearly lost ground over the last 3 years: https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1779874077127196819 Tesla to Cut More Than 10% of Global Workforce, Musk Tells Staff in Email: WSJ (pay wall) Staff reductions come after world’s most valuable automaker suffered first year-over-year decline in quarterly deliveries since 2020… (TSLA -5.59%) https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-layoffs-elon-musk-email-29388d4e TESLA SENIOR VP DREW BAGLINO IS SAID TO LEAVE THE COMPANY – BBG 9:20 ET Former auto executives warn electric vehicle push happened ‘too soon and too fast’ Chrysler’s Nardelli and former Big Three exec Bob Lutz discuss the challenge of selling EVs to Americans… “The problem with the whole EV movement is that there was a colossal amount of hype behind it, largely from what I like to call the liberal mainstream media, making it sound like everybody’s next vehicle was going to be an EV,” Lutz also told Digital. “And of course, the government was pushing it, because of their climate change policies. And it just plain wasn’t going to happen.”… “The utilities, the electrical system in this country is going to put us at a tremendous disadvantage as we advance further with electrical demand. That’s going to be a shortfall.”… https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/former-auto-executives-warn-electric-vehicle-push-happened-too-soon-too-fast In early trading on Monday, there was a rush to buy stocks and sell bonds. Nasdaq 100 futures were up almost 1 % before the NYSE opening. Trading patterns are so inculcated and so honored that traders eschewed the frightening situation in the Middle East to avidly play for upward biases: Monday Rally, Expiry Week Squeeze, and Earnings Season Rally. Yes, Virginia, it’s more casino than capital market! Because the usual suspects were eager to play for a rally, the swallowed Wall Street barkers, Team Obama-Biden, and media talking points that Iran’s attack on Israel was “performative”; so, there is no need or rationale to retaliate. ESMs rallied sharply during early Asian trading. They then retreated until a rally during the final hour of Nikkei trading occurred. The rally continued for the European opening. ESMs hit a high of 5198.50 at 3:02 ET. ESMs retreated 13 handles and then traded sideways until they exploded higher at 8:30 ET. ESMs then traded sideways with a slight upward bias, hitting a daily high of 5213.25 at 9:15 ET. ESMs then traded sideways until the following Axios story appeared near 10:40 ET: Israel defense minister to Pentagon: No choice but to retaliate against Iran Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Sunday that Israel has no choice but to respond to the unprecedented missile and drone attack launched by Iran over the weekend, a U.S. official and another source briefed on the call told Axios… https://www.axios.com/2024/04/15/israel-iran-attack-missiles-retaliation This headline appeared minutes later: WSJ: “U.S. and Western officials anticipate that Israel will quickly respond to Iran’s attacks, as soon as Monday.” ESMs tumbled to 5167.25 at 11:22 ET. But it was Monday, Expiry Week, earnings season; and time for the Noon Balloon! So, conditioned traders bought; ESMs bounced to 5185.50 at 11:55 ET. Alas, all those trading models, and AI, are not programmed for war between the Middle East’s two biggest powers. ESMs fell to a new daily low of 5158.75 at 12:31 ET. A bottom appeared near 14:18 ET. After an 18-handle rally that peaked near 14:38 ET. Selling resumed, ESMs sank to a daily low of 5094.00 at 15:12 ET. ESMs jumped 17 handles on the late manipulation by 15:31 ET. They slid to 5100.50 at the close. USMs traded contra to stocks. After strong US retail sales were reported at 8:30 ET, USMs sank to a daily low of 103 17 29/32, -2 10/32. The US 10-year hit 4.67%! USMs rebounded ¾ of point by 10:37 ET. They then declined and formed a sideways coil. @sentdefender 14:04 ET: Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly Refused several Phone Calls over the last 48 Hours from Foreign Officials who were attempting to Convince him not to launch a Retaliatory Strike against Iran. NBC: Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned that if Israel launches an attack, the regime’s next response will be “will be immediate, stronger and more extensive.”… https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/iran-attack-live-updates-rcna147781 @PeterMallouk: A WSJ analysis found that a commonly purchased basket of supermarket goods has increased in price by 36.5% over the past 4 years (+8.1% per year). This is much higher than the US Government CPI figures which show food price inflation of 25.2% over the last 4 years (+5.8% per year). (An increasing number of people realize that CPI greatly understates real inflation.) @TripleNetInvest: The value of a Class A office tower (750 Lexington) in NYC has declined a shocking 83% since 2015. According to Morningstar, the estimated ~$300M valuation from 2015 has been slashed to just ~$50M. A $130M loan tied to the building transferred to special servicing back in October for default. Source: The Real Deal Exiled crown prince of Iran demands regime change after Israel attack: This isn’t our war, ‘it’s Khamenei’s’ https://www.foxnews.com/media/exiled-crown-prince-iran-demands-regime-change-israel-attack-isnt-war-khameneis Positive aspects of previous session Ill-conceived early equity rally created by linear thinking traders Gasoline declined sharply; Oil was flat; someone is sitting on oil If events break fortuitously, the end of the largest sponsor of terrorism could occur Negative aspects of previous session Bonds got hammered; equities reversed sharply to the downside after an early rally Major equity indices have suffered significant technical damage The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq closed below their 50-day moving average, the 1st close below the 50-DMAs since November 2, 2023 (The DJIA breeched its 50-DMA on April 4.) The DJIA closed below its 100-DMA for the first time since November 9 Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is a Middle East war trumping bullish seasonal patterns? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5094.24 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5168.43; 5052.47 Inside the organized crime rings plaguing retailers including Ulta, T.J. Maxx and Walgreens https://t.co/K3hyY6SgRy @GOP: Hospitals are being overwhelmed by unpaid hospital bills from illegal immigrants. Denver Health in Colorado is at a breaking point due to an “insurmountable amount of unpaid medical care costs,” largely the result of illegal immigrants who cannot afford medical bills. Just asking, have Biden, Dems, or the media ever asked for ‘restraint’ on going after Trump? Speaker Mike Johnson says House will move separate funding bills for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan (Obama-Biden and Schumer want to lump the aid into one bills) https://trib.al/P3CvlQg @Ostrov_A: Can we get something straight please: On 1 April 2024, Israel did not attack an Iranian consulate in Damascus. It was a terrorist HQ for the IRGC, masquerading as a diplomatic mission. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Iranian general who was eliminated in the attack… was a senior Quds military commander involved in the planning and execution of Hamas’s October 7 massacre against Israel. Zahedi also led Iran’s Hezbollah operations in Syria and Lebanon, including smuggling ammunition and precision weapons into Lebanon and working closely with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Zahedi, who was on par with Qassem Soleimani, also had “American blood on his hands”, having been responsible for a number of attacks in the region, that claimed American lives. @visegrad24: Iran’s actions must be judged not just by their results but by their intent, which was to destroy Israel,” argues former US Secretary of State @mikepompeo. “Don’t!”— Or Ten Ways to Guarantee a Theater-wide War – Victor David Hanson Talk loudly and carry a twig. Issue hollow Obama-like “redlines” or serial Biden threats to aggressive enemies like the vapid “Don’t!” Witness a U.S. President who works a 3-day week, struggles to read a teleprompter, and shouts more at conservative Americans than at America’s enemies… 4. Assure Vladimir Putin that the U.S. reaction to a preemptive invasion of Ukraine would hinge on whether it was a major or “minor” invasion… 5. Coddle terrorist Iran. Seem eager to resume the Iran Deal… 6. Pressure Israel not to destroy Hamas… 8. Recalibrate the U.S. military by substituting DEI criteria for past meritocracy… https://twitter.com/VDHanson/status/1779578220222054631 Joe the Faint Hearted – Has that exalted office ever been occupied by a weaker individual than Joe Biden? Inept, ineffectual, inconsistent, incoherent, anxious, fearful, vacillating, weak and wrong — the dictionary is packed with words for failure to characterize the record of this perhaps ever-more senile old man and his faint-hearted administration… Weakness invites aggression… Biden loudly tries to bully our ally but largely stands silent against the terrorist enemy of Western civilization… Biden’s presidential record on foreign policy may go down in history as the most flagrant appeasement by a world leader since the disastrous record of Britain under Neville Chamberlain in the years leading up to World War II… https://johnkassnews.com/joe-the-faint-hearted/ @mirandadevine: If you elect a president who is a pathological liar and fabulist, nothing can go right. @TheBabylonBee: Biden Retaliates Against Iran by Attaching Note to Pallet Of Cash That Says ‘Please Do Not Use for Terrorism’ https://buff.ly/3TRuNzS @visegrad24: AOC crying after the US approved funding for Israel’s Iron Dome in 2021. The Iron Dome has stopped over 10,000 rockets fired into Israel since October 7th, saving hundreds of thousands of lives. (Such hatred for Israelis!) https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1779374478578917655 Today – The Monday Rally was eradicated by Israel-Iran. The Expiry Week Rally and upward season bias was thwarted. The world awaits Israel’s retaliation – and Iran’s response. Only conditioned traders (essentially trained seals) will get jiggy for stocks in this environment. There could be intervention in the markets if things get ugly. ESMs are +2.00, USMs are +8/32, and Gold is +20.40 at 20:43 ET. Expected earnings: BK 1.19, PNC 3.01, JNJ 2.65, BAC .77, UNH 6.59, MS 1.66, UAL -.57, JBHT 1.52 Expected economic data: Mar Housing Starts 1.482m, Permits 1.51m; Mar Industrial Production 0.4% m/m, Mfg. Production 0.2%, Capacity Utilization 78.5% Fed Speakers: VCEO Jefferson 9 ET, NY Pres Williams 12:30 ET, Powell Q&A 13:15 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5114; 100-day MA: 4916; 150-day MA: 4724; 200-day MA: 4663 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,876; 100-day MA: 37,973; 150-day MA: 36,597, 200-day MA: 36,144 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5061.82 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4638.30 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5039.51 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5269.27 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5122.18 triggers a buy signal Which celebs have had the ‘Biden facelift’? Top plastic surgeons spill all The POTUS, 81, is reported to have had several cosmetic procedures to tighten and lift the skin on his face and remove wrinkles and bags, as well as hair transplants… https://trib.al/2DMVMgn @bennyjohnson: TRUMP: “We have millions of people coming into this country…some are terrorists. They come from jails, mental institutions—they’re coming from all over the world. Biden should do it immediately. He should close the border immediately.” https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1778896243860594917 Fury at ‘insane’ NYC cops who fined mother for letting her four-year-old son pee in park while bathroom was closed – as criminals run rampant https://trib.al/IuhqGfj Green Bay broke same-day voter registration rules, allowed illegal votes, election group alleges “Same-day voter registration allows people to cast votes with verification of their eligibility after an election. This post-verification system makes same-day registration vulnerable to being used to cast fraudulent votes,” said Lauren Bowman Bis… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/green-bay-allegedly-broke-same-day-voter-registration-rules-illegal-votes Democrats, media starting to admit some mail-in voting problems ahead of 2024 presidential election – Facing mounting evidence, including delayed mail deliveries and ballot harvesting, the issues with mail-in voting are becoming more apparent to Democrats… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/democrats-media-begin-acknowledging-mail-voting-problems-ahead-2024 GOP @RepChipRoy: “It’s just not that hard. If you want to go after an American, if you want to look at their information, GET A WARRANT.” #FISA GOP @RepTiffany: We can protect the deep state or we can protect the American people from warrantless surveillance. I stand with the American people and the Constitution. The FBI should be required to GET A WARRANT. #FISA @AP: The House passed a bill to reauthorize and provide sweeping reforms of a section of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act without including broad restrictions on how the FBI uses the surveillance tool to search for Americans’ data. @greg_price11: 86 Republicans just voted against @RepAndyBiggsAZ’s amendment to require a warrant to spy on Americans under FISA causing it to fail. Here are the names: https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1778827570240159772 @jeffreyatucker: “Nazi leaders in Germany do not fear possible national economic ruin in wartime. They feel that, whatever happens, they will remain on top, that the worse matters become, the more dependent on them will be the propertied classes. And if the worst comes to the worst, they are prepared to sacrifice all other interests to maintain their hold on the State. If they themselves must go, they are ready to pull the temple down with them.” ~ Gunter Riemann (1939) @nytimes: Why are men randomly punching women in New York City? Conversation about the violent attacks have centered on mental illness, but the offenses seem to have their roots in hatred of women… (There’s a component to these attacks that the MSM avoids.) https://t.co/ATX7v61RHh https://nypost.com/2024/04/13/us-news/failed-nyc-mayoral-candidate-charged-for-socking-tiktoker-in-the-face-posts-podcast-about-attacks-on-social-media-hurls-insults-at-nypd/ LA woman, 54, suffers horrific injuries including fractured jaw and lost teeth after being beaten by ‘homeless sex attacker’ 29,’ while walking near her Venice Beach home https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13304627/la-woman-horrific-injuries-beaten-homeless-attacker-venice-beach-home.html Failed NYC mayoral candidate charged for socking TikToker in the face posts podcast about attacks on social media, hurls insults at NYPD Brute who slugged little girl in Grand Central was free after another attack days earlier: cops https://t.co/OChUIReNwZ Californians are buying up guns after Border Patrol starts dumping thousands of migrants on streets https://trib.al/dr6z9rh Line-Dancing Troupe Ejected from Contest After Audience “Triggered” By US Flag Outfits In Seattle after some members of the audience complained that they had been “triggered” by the stars and stripes outfits of the performers… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/line-dancing-troupe-ejected-contest-after-audience-triggered-us-flag-outfits?s=02 For decades leftists professed that they did not ‘hate America.’ They just support the 1st Amendment and oppose ABC through XYZ. Now, leftists do not feel the need to conceal their hate for America and anything that is emblematic of the USA – or the fact that they are trying to undermine traditional US values, culture, and institutions – and will trample on the Constitutional rights of those that oppose them. Denver Cuts Taxpayer Services, Diverts $90 Million to Support Illegal Immigrants https://t.co/CyvvtwGlPD Migrant who swiped FDNY vessel, sail boat for joyrides is freed without bail — and immediately strikes again: witnesses https://trib.al/LdsBPWF @EndWokeness: 3 police officers were gunned down this morning by “teen suspects” in Memphis. Officer Joseph McKinney was killed. One of the teens was arrested weeks ago for possessing an illegal firearm and stolen car. THEY RELEASED HIM WITHOUT BAIL. 81-year-old veteran sucker-punched and carjacked by “teen suspects” in Chicago: https://t.co/LEl8HxKd3R Chicago Sun-Times (@Suntimes): Ariana Molina was with family celebrating a confirmation Saturday night when shots were fired, killing the 9-year-old. Ten people, including a 1 and 8-year-old, were wounded. Police blame gangs for the shooting. https://t.co/1pg1P7s8g7 The Epoch Times: Woman Who Went Viral for Hugging Trump at Chick-fil-A Explains Why Black Voters Support Him – ‘They feel like he’s honest,’ said Michaelah Montgomery, a political consultant whose interaction with President Trump went viral on social media… CNN Contributor Criticized for Saying O.J. Simpson ‘Represented Something’ for Black Community After ‘Two White People Had Been Killed’ – Ashely Allison was also a former Obama administration official who worked on Joe Biden’s presidential campaign as well as his transition team… https://www.oann.com/newsroom/cnn-contributor-criticized-for-saying-o-j-simpson-represented-something-for-black-community-after-two-white-people-had-been-killed/ @WhitlockJason: We are paid to pretend like slavery ended last week, and the problems plaguing us today ended 150 years ago. It’s a level of delusion and derangement that is both comical and lethal. Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic @COVIDSelect: Whistleblower provides new evidence of Dr. David Morens — a top advisor to Dr. Fauci — allegedly using his Gmail account to hide COVID origins information and avoid FOIA laws. Dr. Morens used his Gmail to communicate with @EcoHealthNYC President Dr. Peter Dasza https://twitter.com/COVIDSelect/status/1778480524673142840 @JordanSchachtel: The 10 stages of mRNA denial: 1) It’s the cure! 2) It’s not the cure but it prevents you from getting it 3) It doesn’t prevent you from getting it but it prevents you from getting sick 4) It doesn’t prevent you from getting sick but it prevents you from getting REALLY sick 5) It doesn’t prevent you from getting REALLY sick but it prevents you from dying 6) It doesn’t prevent you from dying but it prevents most people from dying 7) Hey, it’s still a net benefit! 8) Okay, well at least it doesn’t actively harm people! 9) Okay, well at least it doesn’t harm THAT many people! 10) Okay, it’s poison @CollinRugg: Pro-Palestine protester gets arrested after calling for the murders of Bakersfield City Council members. Riddhi Patel accused city council members of targeting her with metal detectors as she made the threats. “We’ll see you at your house, we’ll murder you.” “I hope one day somebody brings the guillotine and kills all of you motherf***ers.” Patel was arrested and is facing felony charges for terroristic threats. She is being held on $1 million bail. (KGET) https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1778856755126227123 Anti-Israel protesters block highway outside Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport https://t.co/wLlBm69Nua @CollinRugg: Pro-Palestine protesters have blocked the Golden Gate Bridge just hours after another group shut down lanes at Chicago O’Hare airport. The protest reportedly started in Oakland where they blocked lanes and chained themselves to barrels. Now, all southbound direction lanes of the Golden Gate Bridge are blocked causing miles of traffic. Protesters say the protests are a part of a “worldwide economic blockade in solidarity with Palestine.” https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1779914595156808045 The DNC Convention in Chicago, with August heat, is going to be lit! @Julio_Rosas11: Outside the New York Stock Exchange for an anti-Israel rally, a person waves the Hezbollah flag. https://twitter.com/Julio_Rosas11/status/1779935689548677488 @kylenabecker: The Golden Gate Bridge has been completely blocked by Pro-Palestinian protesters. This follows upon protesters shutting down roads near Chicago’s O’Hare airport. This is Biden’s America. Total chaos. https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1779924534046437554 @Osint613: Leaked IRGC top secret letter reveals plans for psychological warfare and an economic blockade on April 15th (today) across four continents in support of Palestinians. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/1779820473754239340 If the above is true, the protestors halting US commence and travel should be treated as agents of Iran. | |
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU WEDNESDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
