EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,792.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/09/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 04/13/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 9
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 2
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 180
323 H HSBC 9
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 18
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 30
365 C MAREX CAPITAL MARKET 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 1
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 615
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 447 11
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 6
800 C MAREX SPEC 30
905 C ADM 12
TOTAL: 687 687
MONTH TO DATE: 17,343
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2026: 687 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 68,700 OZ or 2.1368TONNES
total notices so far: 17,343 contracts for 1,734,300 OR 53.944 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1552 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 7.760 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 42 CONTRACTS OR 0.210 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 130,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS REMAINS AT 7.925 MILLION OZ
NOW OUR APRIL 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 10.970 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S ZERO OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 7.925 MILLION OZ
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR STRONG 595 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 59500 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 55.623 TONNES
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MARCH:: SMALL INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MARCH AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 46 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 4400 OZ OR 0.2320 TONNESAND THEN WE ADD BY OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 22.3818///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES OF GOLD./
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD; 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 7200 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 53.928 TONNES.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 4 MONTHS JANUARY TO APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 59,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP (1.850 TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 55.623 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 29.141 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONG
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA STRONG 733 CONTRACTS OI TO 116,493 AND CLOSER TOTHE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 111,576 CONTRACTS MARCH 20.2026
EFP ISSUANCE 245 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 245 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 733 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 245 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 978 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.91
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 4.890 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $0.91
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS APRIL 10 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.50 PTS OR 0.24%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 141.14 PTS OR 0.55%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1063.18 PTS OR 1.90%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.21%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN 6.8324
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8319 Oil UP TO 100.07 ollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 98.00 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8324 (DOWN) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8319 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 1217 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 358,616 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET THIS WEEK AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THURSDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE WITH THE BANKERS TAKING THE SHORT SIDE, SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL.
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS APRIL CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD. THE SPECS HAVE NOW GONE MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE AGAIN WITH THE BANKERS BUYING UP ALL THEY COULD AND COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL IN GOLD. THE SHORT SPECS WERE MURDERLIZED WITH YESTERDAY’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE WITH ANNOUNCEMENT OF A CEASEFIRE!.
WE THUS HAD A SMALL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 493 CONTRACTS (OR 1.533 TONNES) DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR 1710 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES OF GOLD.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR FAR.
A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO APRIL:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW APRIL COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4784 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE ($88.85). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH APRIL/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A STRONG SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 3085 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING THIS WEEK WITH MUCH FAILURE DURING LONDON LBMA/OTC OPTION EXPIRY WEEK!! (APRIL FIRST DAY NOTICE)
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
FOR MARCH WE HAVE 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7196 CONTRACTS OR 719,600 OZ/22.3818 TONNES.. AS DELIVERIES OF GOLD THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE BEEN HUGE!!
APRIL: 0 SO FAR HAVE BEEN ISSUED
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
AND NOW APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 59,500 OZ (1.850 TONNES) QUEUE JUMP. THUS STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 55.623 TONNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING APRIL,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $42.50)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI //(OTHER SPECULATORS WENT THIS WEEK ON THE SHORT SIDE AND THEY WERE TORCHERED YESTERDAY!!). OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THURSDAY NIGHT//FRIDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO APRIL:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977TONNES
4. JANUARY:
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
10. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0298 TONNES TO WHICH THIS IS ADDED TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2082 / NEW QUEUE JUMP ADVANCES TO: 41.233 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO: 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TO WHICH WE THEN ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.3818 TONNES// GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO: 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING: A VERY STRONG 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 59,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP (1.850 TONNES). THUS STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 55.623 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $42.50
WE HAD A RECORS SETTING 8110 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 593 CONTRACTS OR 59,300 OZ OR 1.533 TONNES
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
APRIL 10 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 1 a) JPMorgan: 62,370.12 oz total withdrawal: 52,370.12 oz or /1.93 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 687 CONTRACTS OR 68,700 OZ 2.368 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 540 Contracts 54000 OZ 1.679 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 17,343 notices 1,734,300 oz 53.944 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
customer withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 1
a) JPMorgan: 62,370.12 oz
total withdrawal: 52,370.12 oz
or /1.93 tonnes
comex is draining of gold/.
they are draining the comex of gold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ADJUSTMENTs
adjustments: / / 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL OI STANDS AT 1227 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 372 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 223 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED A MONSTROUS 595 CONTRACTS. THUS 59,500 OZ OF ADDITIONAL GOLD WILL STAND ON THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER AND THIS EQUATES TO 1,850 TONNES.
MAY LOST 430 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 3467
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY A 342 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 266,827
We had 687 contracts filed for today representing 68,700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 447 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 687 contract(s) of which 11 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for APRIL. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,343) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (1227 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 687 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,788,300 OZ OR (55.623 Tonnes of gold)
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month: No of notices filed so far (17,343 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of APRIL (1227 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (687 )x 100 oz) which equals 1,788,300 OZ OR 55.623 TONNES//
new total of gold standing in APRIL is 55.623 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL 53.623 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
confirmed volume THURSDAY confirmed 152,640 poor
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,879,012,718 oz 58.45 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,879,012.718 tonnes oz 58.45 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 30,550,558.248 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 16,012,810.855 or 498.066 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 14,538,047.400 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 14,133,798 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
439.620 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
APRIL10
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) out of CNT 34,033.250 oz ii) Out of Delaware: 4,920.922 total withdrawal: 38,,054.172 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 2 ENTRIES i) Into Brinks 1206,289.910 oz ii) Into HSBC 448,342.183 oz total deposit: 1,634,632.003 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 1 CONTRACT(S) ( 5,000 OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 33 Contracts (0.165 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1552 contracts 7.760 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
DEPOSITS TWO ENTRIES
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Brinks 1206,289.910 oz
ii) Into HSBC 448,342.183 oz
total deposit: 1,634,632.003 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) out of CNT 34,033.250 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 4,920.922
total withdrawal: 38,,054.172 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments:
one adjustments out of customer (eligible) entirely
a) Brinks 1,196,997.700 oz
net oz leaving customer only: 1196,997.700 oz
THURSDAY volume: 61,554 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76.840 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 327.934 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR APRIL
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2026 OI: 34 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 111 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 111 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP. STANDING THUS REMAINS AT 7.925 MILLION OZ WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL
XXX
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 4028 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 61,519 CONTRACTS.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 52 CONTRACTS UP TO 621 OI CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 or 5,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY; 61,554 fair
AND NOW APRIL. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1552 X5,000 oz = 7.760 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (34) AND the number of notices served upon today (1)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL 2026 contract month: (1552 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (34) minus number of notices served upon today (1 )x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the APRIL..contract month equating to 7.925 MILLION OZ.
NEW STANDING: 7.925 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STRONG FOR A GENERALLY LOUSY DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 76.840 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 145.541/327.934million: 44.34%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 1/2026/WITH GOLD UP $134.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.276 TONNES
MAR 31/2026/WITH GOLD UP $119.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.133 TONNES
MAR 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.143 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.562
MAR 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $213.05 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.580 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42
MAR 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $155.30 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.000
MAR 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.286 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $165.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.149 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.991
MAR 20/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $39,55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.855 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.135
MAR 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99
MAR 18/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $111.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.564 TONNES
MAR 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.857 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.708 TONNES
MAR 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4/327 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071/.565 TONNES
MAR 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $61.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.428 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.852 TONNES
MAR 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.715 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077.28 TONNES
MAR 11/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $70.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.858 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.565 TONNES
MAR 10/2026/WITH GOLD UP $137.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.614 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.707 TONNES
MAR 9/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.573 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.321 TONNES
MAR 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $77.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.894 TONNES
MAR 5/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 18.032 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.038 TONNES
MAR 4/2026/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.545 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.07 TONNES
MAR 3/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $188.75 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.36 TONNES
MAR 2/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101,13 TONNES
FEB 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.90 TONNES
FEB 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.62 TONNES
FEB 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $48.40 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.17 TONNES
FEB 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.47 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1052.420 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND WITHDRAWAL OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.079 MILLION OZ
MAR 31 WITH SILVER UP $4.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.532 MILLION OZ
MAR 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.74: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.75: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 10.505 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.92: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.490 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $6.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9444 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.761 MILLION OZ
MAR 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.36: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.792 MILLION OZ.
MAR 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.705 MILLION OZ.
MAR 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.57: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.056 MILLION OZ.
MAR 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.83: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592
MAR 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.713 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592 MILLION OZ
MAR 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.96 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.812 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.305 MILLION OZ
MAR 10 WITH SILVER UP $5. HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.63 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.117 MILLION OZ
MAR 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.747 MILLION OZ
MAR 6 WITH SILVER UP $2.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.526 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508,287 MILLION OZ
MAR 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.98 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.726 MILLION OZ
MAR 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.813 MILLION OZ
MAR 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $5.27 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2/899 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 511.268 MILLION OZ
MAR 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.87 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.352 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.167 MILLION OZ
FEB 27 WITH SILVER UP $5.54 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 0.544 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.519 MILLION OZ
FEB 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.05 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.906 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.975 MILLION OZ
FEB 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.43 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.923 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.881 MILLION OZ
FEB 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.056 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.958 MILLION OZ
FEB 23 WITH SILVER UP $4.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 0.951 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.902 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 492.213 MILLION OZ OF SILVER..
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
MATHEW PIEPENBURG…
XXX
JOHN RUBINO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Have gold and silver bottomed?
The controversy in investment circles is about escalating portfolio risk and how to hedge it.
| Alasdair MacleodApr 10∙Paid |
Let’s make something clear before addressing this question: Regulators train and legislate investment managers into believing that gold is not the way to hedge investment risk. Gold is not a regulated investment and therefore not an investment at all. An investment manager can hold a small amount of unregulated investments if his compliance officer signs it off. But the compliance officer is there to discourage or prevent an investment manager from even considering investing in unregulated investments.
Consequently, investment managers see the risk-free position to be cash in their accounting currency, even to the extent of not buying physical gold or silver ETFs. It amounts to a cop-out. This meddling with markets by the authorities is at the root of the current period of confusion in Western capital markets over how to respond to black-swan events such as the war against Iran.
This week’s stasis continues
For perspective, after considerable volatility gold and silver spot are back in moderately positive territory this year so far. In European trade this morning, gold was $4,750, up $70 over the Easter break, and silver at $75.20 is up 20 cents. Turnover on Comex remains subdued, and open interest is still at the lowest levels for the last 20 years in both metals. Here it is for gold compared with the spot price:
The underlying tone feels firm, with minimal speculative positions in both gold and silver contracts.
There’s some controversy about central bank policies with some reported selling. This is not new, but it should be noted that central banks deal with each other instead of selling into the market as critics imply.
Turkey is a different story, which I covered in a MacleodFinance Substack article (Are central banks selling gold? — 5th April). Turkey’s central bank uses its gold holdings to regulate its money supply, a point picked up in a UBS research note:
“We would strongly advise caution against taking headlines at face value, not least because of Turkey’s unique position in how the central bank uses gold as a policy tool.”
Macroeconomists’ favourite safe haven, the dollar, lost some ground against the other major currencies this week, reflected in its trade-weighted index which fell from over 100 to 98.5, testing support at the moving averages. It might have helped steady precious metals:
It’s not just gold and silver frozen into relative inaction: the rise in bond yields is on pause and equities are too. But being headline-driven, there is considerable volatility in oil and related energy prices. First, there was Trump’s threat to bomb Iran out of existence, driving WTI above $116 before his deadline on Tuesday. Then in a last-minute agreement to a two-week window, it fell to $92. And when Israel continued bombing southern Lebanon yesterday, Iran closed down Hormuz almost completely and WTI rallied to $101.67. At $98.50 this morning, this volatility is not over.
Futures prices don’t truly reflect oil prices anyway, with shortages in Asia driving prices higher than financial markets’ spot rates, and significant backwardations between spot and futures exist as the following post on X illustrates: For now, in their inaction investors seem to be ignoring the certain consequences. Either higher energy prices and shortages of fertilisers and other critical goods will drive the world into a global slump, or governments will intervene expanding subsidies and price controls in time-honoured fashion. Politically, they are bound to take the latter course, debauching their currencies in the process.
As soon as the frozen-into-inaction-brigade of investors wakes up to this certainty and discards their regulatory constraints, the rush into the protection of gold and its handmaiden silver should be spectacular.
We leave you with a suggestion of how this will accelerate the demise of fiat currencies by illustrating the impact driving the fiat dollar toward its inevitable extinction:
Since January 2000, the fiat dollar has lost 94.1 cents of its value measured in real money, and its rate of descent to extinction was already accelerating. We can never say with certainty that gold and silver prices have finally corrected, but current levels offer an excellent opportunity for investment managers to hedge the mounting risks on behalf of their managed portfolios — even defying their bureaucratic compliance officers.
JESSE COLUMBO..
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT NO 267
end.
5. COMMODITY REPORT//..
ASIAN AFFAIRS APRIL 10/2026
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.50 PTS OR 0.24%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 141.14 PTS OR 0.55%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1063.18 PTS OR 1.90%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.21%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN 6.8324
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8319 Oil UP TO 100.07 ollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 98.00 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8324 (DOWN) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8319 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8324
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.8319
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 141.14 PTS OR 0.55%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1063.18 PTS OR 1.90%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 100.07
BRENT; 98.00
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.72/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1686 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.453 UP 7 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 159.32… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.630 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: 6.8324( DOWN AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.8313
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.0371 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.827// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.496%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.800%
3j Gold at $4757.00 //Silver at: 75.40 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 76 100 roubles/76.86
3m oil (WTI) into the 98 dollar handle for WTI and 100 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.56 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.453% UP 7 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.631 UP 2 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7901 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9233
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.298 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.903 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.797 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.69 UP 10 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.8200 UP 7 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.486 UP 7 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.452 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.077 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Flat Ahead Of CPI, Ceasefire Negotiations
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 08:25 AM
US equity futures are flat, recovering from an earlier drop, and set to extend a seven-day rally, the longest since October, as investors looked to talks between the US and Iran for signs a fragile truce can hold while bracing for a big jump in today’s CPI report (full preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.1%,on track for their biggest weekly advance in almost a year. Nasdaq futures rose 0.2%, its winning streak is the longest since September, led once again memory stocks while Mag 7 were mixed (NVDA -0.5% and MSFT +0.5%). Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.8% as Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia expressed optimism about peace talks. Overnight, headlines were mostly quiet as investors continue assessing the negotiation progress between the US and Iran. Hormuz and Lebanon remains the two key focuses. Meanwhile, a BBG headline this morning saying that Ukraine may be near a deal with Putin drove futs modestly higher; gold trades flat around $4,765. Bond yields are unchanged to 1-2bp lower, the 10Y TSY trading at 4.29%; oil is 1% higher to $98.6; base metals are mostly lower. Brent crude was steady at near $96 a barrel but on pace for its steepest weekly loss in nine months. On today’s calendar, we have March CPI due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by factory orders for February and final readings for February durable/cap goods at 10 a.m. University of Michigan Sentiment also due at 10 a.m.
In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly higher (Microsoft +0.2%, Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.2%, Amazon +0.2%, Apple -0.3%, Tesla +0.2%, Nvidia -0.1%)
- CoreWeave (CRWV) gains 4% after Anthropic PBC agreed to rent data center capacity from the company.
- Docusign (DOCU) slips 1.7% after Citi downgraded the company and other application software stocks to neutral, saying the group they doesn’t have any exciting 12-month catalysts. The other downgraded stocks include Autodesk (ADSK), which is down 1.4%.
- Kyivstar Group (KYIV) rises 9% after Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia said he sees progress toward a possible peace deal between the two countries.
- Lumentum (LITE) climbs 5% after the firm said demand from the biggest US tech companies is accelerating. Peer Coherent (COHR) climbs 4%.
- Organon & Co. (OGN) soars 21% after the Economic Times reported that Sun Pharmaceutical is set to make a $12 billion offer for debt-ridden company. Sun Pharmaceutical called the report speculative in nature.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s ADRs (TSM) are up 2% after the company reported March sales that reinforced how the company is seeing strong AI demand.
- Tecnoglass (TGLS) slips 2% after the window manufacturer lowered its full-year adjusted Ebitda outlook due to tariffs on certain aluminum-containing products and derivatives.
In other corporate news, an earnings beat by CATL may set the stage for a short squeeze, after a surge in the battery maker’s shares on bets tied to soaring energy prices. Lumentum said demand from the biggest US tech companies for its optical components is accelerating and on track to fill its order books through 2028. AI is also on traders’ radars this Friday. TSMC reported a 35% increase in quarterly revenue, suggesting ongoing global chip demand remains intact. China AI firm Sharetronic procured hundreds of Super Micro systems containing banned high-end Nvidia chips. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell summoned Wall Street bank CEOs to discuss Anthropic’s new AI to discuss cyber risks.
Anticipation of weekend talks between the US and Iran following this week’s ceasefire agreement are keeping markets on edge. The longest winning run for the S&P 500 since October looks set to be tested as traders prepare for CPI data before attention turns to US-Iran discussions in Islamabad at the weekend. The truce announced on Tuesday remains shaky, with Kuwait reporting large-scale drone attacks on “vital” facilities overnight and accusing Iran and its proxy groups of violating the terms of the agreement.
Israel continued to target towns in south Lebanon, where its parallel campaign against Tehran-backed Hezbollah threatens to undermine negotiations. “I’m not trimming into the weekend,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA. “The direction of travel seems to be to talk rather than to fight.”
The latest tone in markets suggests some optimism negotiators from Washington and Tehran will make progress on longer term de-escalation, despite the remaining points of tension. Whatever the outcome, there are plenty of supply chain bottlenecks and delayed consequences still to work through. Daily commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains close to zero. The “Trillion Dollar War” is weighing on global economic outlooks, note Bloomberg Economists whose global growth tracker – which uses a machine-learning algorithm to extract signals from data for 18 advanced and EM economies – points to an abrupt reversal, after a build-up in momentum at the start of the year. “Investors are hoping for fruitful negotiations,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM. Still, “a swift conclusion will be difficult to achieve, as economic interests prevail on all sides and no one wants to be disadvantaged,” he said.
Oil remains in focus. Saudi Arabia said its production capacity has been reduced by attacks on energy infrastructure. WTI could hold at $100 a barrel – or higher – for longer if disruptions to tanker traffic keep global crude flows constrained, Bloomberg notes pointing to a surge in net long crude futures amid oil’s widening risk premium.
“We believe this could be the beginning of the end, and is presenting an opportunity for investors to focus on pre-war trends and fundamentals,” Bernstein analysts Rupal Agarwal and Cheng Zhang wrote in a note.
Some investors are not convinced that the ceasefire marks the end of trouble for financial markets. Crude remains over $90 a barrel, a level that threatens to drive inflation and suppress economic growth. “I’m not very optimistic at all,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer of Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore. “Overall, our sense is that the sustained premium in crude is not reflected yet in profit margins, and that ought to contribute to a higher equity risk premium.”
The March CPI report is expected to show gasoline prices drove the fastest monthly increase in the headline gauge in almost four years, while core CPI will likely remain tame. The Cleveland Fed nowcast point to headline CPI of around 3.25% Y/Y in March (vs an actual 2.4% in February), though core inflation should be steadier at around 2.5% Y/Y, suggesting the March strength is likely to come from fuel and other energy-related components rather than a broad-based underlying inflation surge. Wall street upside estimates are even more aggressive, with median expectations for headline CPI surging from 0.3% MoM to 0.9%, and from 2.4% to 3.4% YoY. (Our full preview is here).
“Headline risk pertaining to the war remains far and away the biggest driver of volatility,” Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note. “However, inflation data also presents meaningful event risk.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.8% as Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia expressed optimism about peace talks, stocks are led by construction and media. Markets received an additional boost from news of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, though that dented defense stocks. Italian luxury brand Brunello Cucinelli jumped after impressive results, while Sodexo’s disappointing guidance weighed on its stock. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Brunello Cucinelli gains as much as 6.6% after the Italian luxury clothing company reported solid first-quarter earnings thanks to strong retail sales, which according to analysts, confirms the company’s stand-out position in the sector
- Reply shares rose as much as 8.4% in Milan trading, the most in a year, after the Italian digital services firm announced that it would buy back ordinary shares worth as much as €550m
- Holcim rises as much as 3.1% after Goldman Sachs upgrades the Swiss building materials company to buy from neutral, seeing an attractive entry point following the stock’s decline this year
- Tomra gains as much as 7.1% after Pareto Securities reiterated its buy recommendation on the Norwegian recycling equipment firm, saying the blue-sky scenario related to changes in the European deposit-return scheme is materializing
- Instalco gains as much as 9.2%, the most since February, after both Pareto Securities and SEB raised its recommendations on the Swedish building installation and maintenance firm to buy from hold
- Plejd shares gain as much as 16% to hit a fresh record high after earnings from the Swedish electrical equipment maker surpassed Bloomberg-compiled consensus expectations across all metrics, with first-quarter Ebit 49% ahead
- Sodexo shares plunge as much as 20%, to the lowest level since 2011, after the French food services company issued weaker-than-expected guidance for organic revenue growth and underlying operating margin
- DEME Group shares fall as much as 8.8%, the most in a year, after ING lowers its rating to hold from buy, citing headwinds it sees lying ahead for earnings at the Belgian engineering firm
- Leonardo shares fall as Italy’s government picked a former executive at the aerospace and defense company, Lorenzo Mariani, to replace Roberto Cingolani as CEO. Mariani currently works for missile maker MBDA
Asian stocks advanced, posting their biggest weekly gain since November 2022, as a ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a relief rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7%, taking its weekly increase to 6%. Chipmakers TSMC and SK Hynix were among biggest boosts to the gauge Friday. Indonesia’s benchmark jumped 2%, leading gains around the region, followed by Taiwan, mainland China and South Korea. The week’s advance signals a return of risk appetite across Asian markets after steep losses in March on concerns over the war. Still, uncertainty remains over the chances for lasting peace and the trajectory for oil prices.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gains 0.1%, snapping a four-day decline. The gauge has still dropped 1.2% this week, headed for its worst performance since January. The yen edged lower against the dollar; Japanese bonds dropped amid expectations for a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama says authorities are prepared to take action on all fronts in markets, considering the impact of currency moves on households and the economy.
In rates, US treasuries were on track to snap a four-day run of gains as investors await March US inflation data due later Friday to see the impact of higher oil prices from the Iran war. Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, with yields off session highs in early US trading ahead of March CPI report expected to show the biggest monthly headline increase in almost four years, driven by gasoline prices. US yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper across a slightly steeper curve, 10-year by 1.8bp near 4.29%; German and UK counterparts lag by 3bp and 4bp respectively. In Europe, bonds slide as traders add to rate-hike bets again, with European and UK 10-year yields rising between four and seven basis points and German 30-year yields hitting the highest since 2011. Ahead of CPI data, Fed-dated OIS contracts price in around 6 basis points of easing by the end of the year and fully price in a quarter-point move by September 2027
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are little changed after erasing a 2.6% increase. Brent trades close to $97/barrel and WTI around $98. Gold prices drifting lower to around $4,750/oz.
The US economic data calendar includes March CPI (8:30am), February factory orders, April preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and March federal budget balance (2pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini little changed, Nasdaq 100 mini little changed, Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.2%, CAC 40 +0.3%
- 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.29%
- VIX -0.1 points at 19.43
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1200.13, euro little changed at $1.1704
- WTI crude +0.8% at $98.66/barrel
Top Overnight News
President Trump on Thursday demanded Iran stop charging tolls for tankers to cross the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran’s supreme leader promised the country would control the crucial waterway. Axios
The truce remained shaky, as Kuwait reported overnight drone attacks. Israel is preparing for talks with Lebanon but said it’ll continue strikes on Hezbollah, with Trump’s push for an exit straining relations. BBG
President Donald Trump told NBC News on Thursday that he was “very optimistic” a peace deal with Iran was within reach as a diplomatic delegation led by Vice President JD Vance prepared to head to Pakistan for high-stakes talks aimed at ending the nearly six-week conflict. NBC
Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s top negotiator with Russia said he sees Ukraine nearing a peace deal with Vladimir Putin. “They all understand the war needs to end,” Kyrylo Budanov said in an April 4 interview with Bloomberg. BBG
While every administration crafts its own defense strategy, Trump’s second is making the unusual move of discarding a policy that was formulated by his first. That bipartisan approach sanctioned by Trump 1.0 characterized China as the most consequential U.S. adversary. The Trump 2.0 framework is instead a seismic shift in U.S. policy, trade practices and rhetoric toward Beijing driven by a new mantra: Don’t rock the boat. WSJ
China made a rare diplomatic foray in the Iran war, nudging Tehran to agree to sit down for talks with the U.S. Beijing’s role wasn’t decisive, but Chinese leader Xi Jinping now has something valuable: diplomatic capital with President Trump. WSJ
China’s factory-gate prices rose for the first time in more than three years in March, in an early sign that the war in Iran is feeding cost pressures into the world’s second-largest economy. China’s PPI came in a bit firmer than anticipated at +0.5% Y/Y (vs. the Street +0.4% and up from -0.9% in Feb) while the CPI ran a touch cooler at +1% (vs. the Street +1.1% and down from +1.3% in Feb). RTRS
Trump administration reportedly considering a new crackdown on Chinese telecom Carriers’ US operations, according to the agency.
Artificial intelligence lab Anthropic is exploring the possibility of designing its own chips, three sources said, as the company and its rivals respond to a shortage of AI chips needed to power and develop more advanced AI systems. Also, Scott Bessent and Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street CEOs to warn of potential cyber risks from Anthropic’s new AI model and others. RTRS, BBG
CPI Preview: We expect a 0.28% increase in March core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.69% (vs. +2.7% consensus). We expect a 0.87% increase in headline CPI (vs. +1.0% consensus), reflecting sharply higher energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.23% increase in core PCE in March. Goldman
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall Street, where markets extended on the ceasefire-driven momentum, although strikes continued in the region and Israel declared it will keep striking Lebanon ahead of talks next week. Furthermore, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a virtual standstill, and US President Trump criticised Iran on the Strait of Hormuz and warned it to stop charging tolls in the strait. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and energy, while nearly all sectors were lacklustre, aside from the mild resilience seen in real estate and financials. Nikkei 225 rallied with index heavyweight Fast Retailing among the top gainers after its shares surged to fresh record highs following strong earnings results, while participants also reflected on PPI data, which ultimately printed mixed, but showed an acceleration for both the M/M and Y/Y figures. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid some strength in tech, property and auto stocks, while the latest inflation data for China was mixed as CPI printed softer-than-expected, but PPI slightly topped forecasts and showed a return to growth in factory gate prices for the first time in more than three years.
Top Asian News
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama declines to comment on FX levels and said the government is prepared to take decisive action in markets, but will not elaborate on future potential measures. said: Speculation is intensifying in oil, futures, and currency markets.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama say unable to gauge the effect of a food sales tax reduction on prices at this stage and not in a position to discuss steps against possible oil supply deficits. Will co-chair a session on critical minerals on the margins of the G7 meeting. Private credit will be on the G7 agenda but no significant crisis is seen and Japan has no substantial exposure. G7 finance ministers unanimously agree the Middle East situation should not be extended.
- South Korean parties agree on an extra budget size of KRW 26.2tln, according to Yonhap.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are gaining heading into the US-Iran talks at the weekend. If indices can hold onto their gains, it would be the first Friday since the Iran war began that stocks would end in the green. The complex has been fairly choppy this morning, with some pressure seen alongside a slight bid in the crude complex, but then reversed those losses after reports suggested that Ukraine’s top aide Budanov reportedly saw Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin. European sectors are broadly in the green. Media, Health Care and Technology tops the sector pile while Basic Resources and Travel and Leisure lags. The tech sector has been given a boost after TSMC reported YTD sales that beat estimates, supporting the likes of ASML and STMicroelectronics. On the other hand, Travel and Leisure is under pressure following earnings by Sodexo, in which the Co. cut its 2026 organic revenue growth forecast, citing ongoing execution challenges. US equity futures (ES/NQ U/C, RTY -0.1%) are posting modest losses ahead of the US CPI later, in which headline inflation is expected at 3.3% Y/Y, rising from 2.4% while core inflation also expected to rise to 2.7% Y/Y from 2.5%.
Top European News
- US President Trump endorses Hungarian PM Orban, reiterates that he’s a truly strong and powerful leader with a proven track record delivering phenomenal results.
- UK retail footfall returned to growth in March as a number of visits to stores comprising of main street shops, retail parks and shopping centres for the five weeks to April 4th rose 2.4% Y/Y, according to the British Retail Consortium.
FX
- Energy prices continue to dominate price action across G10 currencies, with USD leading. Focus remains on geopolitical updates, none of which overnight did much to spur crude benchmarks ahead of US/Iran talks scheduled this weekend. This morning, newsflow has been light, though there were reports that Iran said no talks would happen until attacks [on Lebanon] stop. US CPI is due at 13:30 London time; today’s release should not be a game-changer for the Fed unless the print significantly exceeds expectations, policy will likely be dictated after members assess the second round effects of the Middle East conflict in future months’ prints.
- Do note that the USD saw some mild selling pressure to session lows of 98.79 (vs 99.00 peak), after reports suggested that Ukraine’s top aide Budanov reportedly saw Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin. But it is worth highlighting that the interview was conducted on April 4th, while recent rhetoric via Ukrainian President Zelensky suggested that Putin is not genuinely seeking peace.
- EUR will look to Sunday’s Hungarian election (Full Preview), where polling suggests opposition support Tisza will take power, though still unclear whether the opposition will gain a supermajority or a simple majority. Desks suggest a supermajority sees HUF and EUR strength, while a simple majority may see initial HUF gains and potential EUR strength, “likely to be pared”. EUR/USD marginally surpassed the 1.17 level with a session high at 1.1702. Elsewhere for the single currency, German inflation was left unrevised at 1.1% on a monthly basis.
- For NOK, Norwegian core inflation this morning surprised to the downside, but still remains elevated on a 3% handle, in line with the Norges Bank’s forecast. With markets shrugging off the modest gains in crude this European morning, the net energy exporter’s currency is flat/modestly lower against EUR within a 11.0839-11.1194 range.
- Kiwi is the worst-performing G10 currency against a stronger buck, after the rally in the pair stalled just above 0.5870. Likely an element of profit-taking after gains over the past two days, with markets continuing to price 75bps of hikes by year end, unchanged from Thursday’s close. Additionally, key metals trade 1-2% lower – as such, AUD also underperforming against the greenback.
Fixed Income
- Fixed benchmarks are flat/mixed this morning, as the complex awaits US CPI later today and heading into the weekend, where US and Iranian officials are to meet for peace talks in Pakistan. While preparations are proceeding “full steam ahead” in the Pakistani capital, both sides have issued warnings that could still derail the meeting. Heading into the confab, US President Trump said he is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach, but warned that if no deal is reached, “it is going to be very painful”.
- USTs are currently flat, with price action lacklustre heading into US CPI. Currently trades within a 111-05 to 111-11+ range, with the 2yr yield hovering near familiar levels at 3.795%, but still well off the extremes seen during the heights of the Iranian war. Traders are currently awaiting the US inflation report, where analysts expect consumer prices to rise by 0.9% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and the annual rate to jump to 3.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.4%); core inflation is expected to rise 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%). Officials say inflation remains too high, with upside risks if oil shocks spill into core prices and expectations, although expectations are still seen as well anchored at this point.
- Recapping the action this week, USTs are currently higher by 16 ticks vs the Monday open, with strength facilitated by ceasefire related optimism – however, US paper has pulled back from highs given the fragile nature of the two-week pause so far. US 2s10s is near enough unchanged since the start of the week, but did experience some steepening amidst the initial ceasefire related optimism.
- Bunds and Gilts are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, with both currently just off session lows. Earlier, Final German Inflation was unrevised in March, and had little impact on Bunds this morning. The action this week across Bunds is reflective of the easing tensions in the Middle East, with the 2yr yield now residing around 2.56% vs the Tuesday open at 2.65%. This has also been reflected in ECB pricing – with money markets fully pricing in an ECB rate hike in April towards the start of the week, now, only 6bps. The temporary ceasefire will allow policymakers to bide their time and assess whether second-round inflation effects filter through into the economy – markets still pricing in two hikes by year-end.
Commodities
- Oil rose for a second consecutive session after Saudi Arabia said attacks on energy infrastructure had reduced its production capacity, with Brent climbing above USD 96/bbl. Despite the rebound, both benchmarks remain on course for their largest weekly loss since June, following Tuesday’s ceasefire announcement. Middle East situation aside, a piece in Bloomberg suggested that Ukraine’s top aide Budanov reportedly saw Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin – though this interview was conducted on April 4th. Nonetheless, this spurred some pressure in Brent Jun’26, falling to a session low of USD 96.03/bbl before paring back towards USD 97/bbl mark, with gains currently around USD 1/bbl.
- Ahead, the focus is on weekend talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan. The diplomatic picture remains complicated, however. US President Trump said he was “optimistic” about a deal but threatened Tehran over reported fees being levied on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran was doing a “poor job” of allowing energy supplies to flow despite ceasefire commitments. He also asked Israeli PM Netanyahu to scale back attacks on Lebanon, amid concerns the fighting could undermine negotiations – a view echoed by both Iran and ceasefire mediator Pakistan, which have described Israel’s Lebanon offensive as a truce violation.
- Spot gold trades subdued on either side USD 4,750/oz (USD 4,731-4,780/oz), but on track for a third straight weekly gain, supported by central bank buying and diplomatic hopes. Critical Metals’ CEO cautioned that bullion could face pressure if oil prices rebound materially, stoking inflation concerns and rate expectations.
- Copper is flat in indecisive trade with broader base metals mixed. 3M LME copper currently trades in a 12,641.00- 12,772.87/t range. In data, China’s factory deflation ended after more than three years, with PPI rising 0.5% Y/Y in March (exp. 0.4%), as surging energy costs snapped the deflationary streak.
- US offers 30mln barrels in crude oil exchange from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as part of IEA coordinate release.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said to release about 20 days of oil stockpiles in May.
- China allows state oil firms to release their reserves amid US-Iran conflict.
- TotalEnergies (TTE FP) said it shut down SATORP refinery in Saudi Arabia as safety precaution following processing train damage.
- EU and US nearing a critical minerals deal to “combat Chinese control”, Bloomberg reported.
- Venezuela passes mining law as Acting President Rodriguez courts investment, according to Bloomberg.
Central Banks
- US Senate Banking panel is no longer intending to conduct a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh next week with the delay due to paperwork.
- BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said no strict definition on what constitutes stagflation, adds must be vigilant to chance Middle East conflict, which if prolonged, could work to weigh on the economy and push up inflation. Doesn’t think Japan’s economy is in stagflation. Face dilemma if prolonged Middle East conflict pushes down growth and accelerates inflation. Will make appropriate decisions on price target and will make the appropriate decision at each meeting. Will take most appropriate policy to stably hit the inflation target, considering scale and duration of shocks and broader economic environment.
- BoK maintains the Base Rate at 2.50%, as expected.
- BoK said rate decision was unanimous and that Middle East conflict poses risks to growth. Growth likely to be below 2% this year. To thoroughly assess external and internal conditions including the Middle East situation. To closely monitor impact on inflation, growth and financial stability. Necessary to remain cautious about FX volatility. Inflation likely to be significantly above 2.2% this year. Raises 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.8% and CPI forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%.
- BoK Governor Rhee said growth path to hinge on the Middle East and trade conditions, adds board members are in wait-and-see mode as Middle East conflict situation is too volatile. It is too early to judge the direction of the Middle East shock, stating that a temporary shock does not warrant a rate response, although a prolonged shock may require a policy response. Iran war has a bigger impact on inflation and growth outlook in South Korea than the war in Ukraine. To assess the size and duration of the Middle East war impact. Too early to discuss a rate hike amid Middle East volatility. Board needs to watch the course of Middle East negotiations first. Asian economies more vulnerable to supply-side impact from Iran war compared to European economies.
Geopolitics: Iran
- US President Trump posted “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonourable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!”.
- US President Trump posted “There are reported that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”.
- US President Trump criticises WSJ for stating he declared premature victory in Iran, adds there is nothing premature about it, also said because of him, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and oil will start flowing very quickly.
- Iran reiterates no talks will happen until attacks stop and no delegation is heading to Pakistan. However, it was reported that the Iranian delegation arrived in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad late on Thursday for upcoming talks, with the delegation led by Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf.
- Informed source told Tasnim that news in some media about the arrival of Iranian negotiating teams to Islamabad to negotiate with Americans is completely false, adds until US fulfils commitments negotiations are suspended.
- Iranian delegation has not yet reached Islamabad despite plans for the first round of negotiations today, Pakistan media report.
- IRGC affirms Iran’s armed forces have absolutely not carried out any launches towards any country during the ceasefire hours up to this moment.
- UK Government said UK PM Starmer and US Present Trump spoke this evening, and agreed there is a ceasefire in place, agreement to open the Strait, and we are at the next stage of finding a resolution. Discussed the need for a practical plan to get shipping moving again as quickly as possible and agreed to speak again soon.
- Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei may deliver address to the nation soon, TASS reported.
- Israeli Chief of Staff Zamir said will continue the war in Lebanon, can return to the war against Iran at any moment and with greater force.
- Israel is working to continue the war on Lebanon within two days and 5 more days before responding to American pressures, Al Jazeera reported citing Ma’ariv sources.
- Israeli airstrike targets Habbouch town in southern Lebanon, while reported also noted that siren sound in Metula, Israel.
- Iranian media reported of intense activity of hostile drones in Iranian cities Tehran, Parachin, Tabriz, and other cities.
- Six rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards Al Jalil in northern Israel.
- Air raid sirens have sounded in the Mizgav Am and Metula settlements in northern Israel.
- Air raid alarms were activated in Tel Aviv, while Israeli military said Hezbollah launched a missile at Israel which set off air raid alarms.
- Warning sirens sound in Kiryat Shimona and surrounding areas, according to Mehr News.
- Shipping traffic in Strait of Hormuz was down on Thursday as just six ships travelled through the strait with two oil tankers among the six ships, according to CBS.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Ukrainian President Zelensky’s top aide/negotiator Budanov reportedly sees Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin, Bloomberg reports; interview conducted on April 4th.
- Russia’s Kremlin confirms envoy Dmitriev’s trip to the US, says Dmitriev is not negotiating on a Ukraine settlement.
Geopolitics: Other
- Chinese President Xi said China will never tolerate Taiwan independence, CCTV reported.
- North Korea’s Foreign Minister tells Chinese counterpart that ties between the two countries are developing into an elevated new phase.
- China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said it is China’s steadfast stance to strengthen China-North Korea relations, irrespective of any shift in the international landscape, according to KCNA. North Korea has achieved results despite suppression by the US and Western powers.
- Cuba’s President said asked the US to engage in a dialogue without condition and not demand changes from our political system.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: United States Mar CPI MoM, est. 0.94%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: United States Mar Core CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
- 8:30 am: United States Mar CPI YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 2.4%
- 8:30 am: United States Mar Core CPI YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.5%
- 10:00 am: United States Feb Factory Orders, est. -0.2%, prior 0.1%
- 10:00 am: United States Apr P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51.5, prior 53.3
- 10:00 am: United States Feb F Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.4%, prior -1.4%
- 10:00 am: United States Feb F Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.8%
- 2:00 pm: United States Mar Federal Budget Balance, est. -153.25b, prior -160.53b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The market tone has remained positive this morning, with oil prices steady and fresh gains for global equities ahead of the US-Iran talks in Islamabad tomorrow. Indeed, the S&P 500 (+0.62%) has now risen for 7 consecutive sessions, with futures on the index (+0.01%) just about pointing towards an 8th gain today. Moreover, oil prices have been steady overnight too, with Brent at $96.23/bbl currently, slightly beneath its levels 24 hours ago. And notably, the VIX index (-1.55pts) closed at just 19.49pts yesterday, falling beneath its pre-strike level of 19.86pts on February 27. So for markets at least, the financial stress has continued to ease before the weekend talks.
The main catalyst for that risk-on move was the announcement yesterday that Israel would start direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible”, and President Trump said shortly after that Israel was “scaling back” its operations in Lebanon. That’s significant because Lebanon has been a potential key stumbling block around the ceasefire, with Israel issuing evacuation orders in eight neighbourhoods of Beirut yesterday, whilst Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the attacks were a “clear violation” of the ceasefire agreement. So those hopes for a de-escalation in Lebanon helped ease concerns that the broader ceasefire could fall apart ahead of this weekend’s talks.
In general, the tone around the US-Iran talks has remained positive, with Trump telling NBC news yesterday that he was “very optimistic” a peace deal was within reach. He also added that Iran’s leaders “talk much differently when you’re at a meeting than they do to the press. They’re much more reasonable”. That said, he made a couple of more negative posts about Iran yesterday evening, warning that Iran “better not be” charging fees to tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that “if they are, they better stop now!” And just over an hour later, he then posted that “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!”
Nevertheless, markets in Asia have posted further gains overnight, with all the major indices advancing. That includes the Nikkei (+1.77%), the KOSPI (+1.81%), the CSI 300 (+1.18%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.63%) and the Hang Seng (+0.60%). There’ve also been a few stories from the region, with China’s PPI inflation moving back into positive territory in March for the first time since September 2022. The latest release showed PPI at +0.5% (vs. +0.4% expected), although CPI fell back slightly to +1.0% (vs. +1.1% expected). Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea held rates at 2.5% as expected, although their statement said that CPI this year “is expected to exceed considerably the February forecast of 2.2%”.
Against that backdrop, oil prices have been pretty steady, with Brent crude currently up +0.23% overnight at $96.23/bbl. That builds on a modest gain yesterday, when Brent had risen +1.23% ot $95.92/bbl. Even at the intraday high yesterday, shortly before the news on the Israel-Lebanon talks broke, Brent only got up to $99.50/bbl, remaining beneath the $100/bbl mark throughout. So there’s been a clear shift in sentiment since the two-week ceasefire announcement, when oil prices were back at $110/bbl, with the overall market tone still a lot more confident than it was at the start of the week. In addition, 12-month Brent futures have continued to fall, with a -0.17% decline yesterday to $76.74/bbl, and a further -0.30% decline overnight to $76.51/bbl.
Although oil prices have come down since the ceasefire announcement, inflation concerns are still pretty high right now, meaning that all eyes will be on today’s US CPI print for March. That’s an important one, because it’s the first to cover the period since the Iran war began on February 28, and we know from the Euro Area flash CPI print that the energy price spike is now clearly visible in the data. For today, our US economists are expecting a notable jump given the surge in gasoline prices, with monthly headline CPI rising to +0.95% in March. If realised, that would be the highest monthly print since June 2022, and it would also push the year-on-year rate back up to 3.4%, which we haven’t seen since early 2024. Then for core CPI, they expect a smaller uptick given it excludes energy and food prices, with the monthly core print up to +0.33%, and the year-on-year measure at +2.7%.
Ahead of that release, US markets had a volatile session yesterday as the geopolitical headlines came through. Ultimately however, the prospect of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon led to a recovery through the session, with the S&P 500 (+0.62%) closing at a one-month high. In fact, it was the index’s 7th consecutive gain, which left it less than 2.5% beneath its record high from late-January. The Magnificent 7 (+1.58%) led that advance yesterday, but there were gains across the board, while software & services (-2.18%) and energy (-1.19%) being the only industry groups in the S&P 500 to post major declines. Moreover, the geopolitical news meant investors grew more confident that the Fed might still cut rates this year, with markets pricing in a 33% likelihood of a cut by the December meeting by yesterday’s close. That’s the highest probability of a 2026 cut in the last three weeks, which helped 10yr Treasury yields (-1.7bps) to come down to 4.28%.
Earlier in Europe, markets had seen a relative underperformance, with bonds and equities paring back their very strong gains from the Wednesday session. In part, that was driven by more concerns about the European inflation outlook, given its relative exposure to higher oil prices, and the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+12.2bps) moved back up to 3.23% by the close. So that led to a pickup in yields across the board, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.4bps), OATs (+3.3bps) and BTPs (+3.1bps) all moving higher. And there was a decent pullback for equities as well, with the STOXX 600 (-0.15%) and the DAX (-1.14%) both losing ground.
Finally, we did get a fresh batch of US data yesterday, although much of it was backward looking for the period before the Iran conflict began. The main highlight was the PCE inflation for February, which is the Fed’s target measure. That came in as expected, with headline and core PCE both at +0.4% on the month, in line with consensus. So for headline PCE, that kept the year-on-year measure at +2.8%, whilst core PCE fell back a tenth to +3.0%. Or in other words, inflation was still lingering above the Fed’s 2% target even before the latest energy shock. Otherwise, we also had the weekly initial jobless claims, which rose by more than expected to 219k in the week ending April 4 (vs. 210k expected). And looking even further back, Q4 GDP growth was revised down again in the third estimate, with the latest reading showing an annualised rate of just +0.5% (vs. +0.7% in the second estimate).
Looking at the day ahead now, US data releases include the March CPI print, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April, and factory orders for February. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos
1b) European opening report
DXY and crude tentative into US-Iran weekend talks, US inflation data ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 05:52 AM
- US President Trump posted “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonourable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!”
- Iran reiterated that no talks will happen until attacks stop and no delegation is heading to Pakistan, despite the expectation of talks to take place on Saturday. Further, an informed source stated Tehran rules out the option of negotiating with Washington until a complete ceasefire is established in Lebanon, and has strongly asserted this position.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky’s top aide/negotiator Budanov reportedly sees Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin, Bloomberg reported.
- Crude edges higher heading into high-stakes US-Iran talks on Saturday.
- European bourses set for a third consecutive weekly gain, SW FP plummets following weak guidance; US equity futures flat.
- DXY muted, EUR and HUF look to Hungarian election.
- Fixed benchmarks tread water heading into US CPI and US-Iran peace talks.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Report (Mar), US Inflation (Mar), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Apr), Credit Ratings updates including Moody’s on France, S&P on the UK & Scope Ratings on Hungary.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are gaining heading into the US-Iran talks at the weekend. If indices can hold onto their gains, it would be the first Friday since the Iran war began that stocks would end in the green. The complex has been fairly choppy this morning, with some pressure seen alongside a slight bid in the crude complex, but then reversed those losses after reports suggested that Ukraine’s top aide Budanov reportedly saw Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin.
- European sectors are broadly in the green. Media, Health Care and Technology tops the sector pile while Basic Resources and Travel and Leisure lags. The tech sector has been given a boost after TSMC reported YTD sales that beat estimates, supporting the likes of ASML and STMicroelectronics. On the other hand, Travel and Leisure is under pressure following earnings by Sodexo, in which the Co. cut its 2026 organic revenue growth forecast, citing ongoing execution challenges.
- US equity futures (ES/NQ U/C, RTY -0.1%) are posting modest losses ahead of the US CPI later, in which headline inflation is expected at 3.3% Y/Y, rising from 2.4% while core inflation also expected to rise to 2.7% Y/Y from 2.5%.
- TSMC (2330 TT) YTD (TWD): Sales 1.13tln (exp. 1.12tln, prev. 0.839tln Y/Y).
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- Energy prices continue to dominate price action across G10 currencies, with USD leading. Focus remains on geopolitical updates, none of which overnight did much to spur crude benchmarks ahead of US/Iran talks scheduled this weekend. This morning, newsflow has been light, though there were reports that Iran said no talks would happen until attacks [on Lebanon] stop. US CPI is due at 13:30 London time; today’s release should not be a game-changer for the Fed unless the print significantly exceeds expectations, policy will likely be dictated after members assess the second round effects of the Middle East conflict in future months’ prints.
- Do note that the USD saw some mild selling pressure to session lows of 98.79 (vs 99.00 peak), after reports suggested that Ukraine’s top aide Budanov reportedly saw Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin. But it is worth highlighting that the interview was conducted on April 4th, while recent rhetoric via Ukrainian President Zelensky suggested that Putin is not genuinely seeking peace.
- EUR will look to Sunday’s Hungarian election (Full Preview), where polling suggests opposition support Tisza will take power, though still unclear whether the opposition will gain a supermajority or a simple majority. Desks suggest a supermajority sees HUF and EUR strength, while a simple majority may see initial HUF gains and potential EUR strength, “likely to be pared”. EUR/USD marginally surpassed the 1.17 level with a session high at 1.1702. Elsewhere for the single currency, German inflation was left unrevised at 1.1% on a monthly basis.
- For NOK, Norwegian core inflation this morning surprised to the downside, but still remains elevated on a 3% handle, in line with the Norges Bank’s forecast. With markets shrugging off the modest gains in crude this European morning, the net energy exporter’s currency is flat/modestly lower against EUR within a 11.0839-11.1194 range.
- Kiwi is the worst-performing G10 currency against a stronger buck, after the rally in the pair stalled just above 0.5870. Likely an element of profit-taking after gains over the past two days, with markets continuing to price 75bps of hikes by year end, unchanged from Thursday’s close. Additionally, key metals trade 1-2% lower – as such, AUD also underperforming against the greenback.
FIXED INCOME
- Fixed benchmarks are flat/mixed this morning, as the complex awaits US CPI later today and heading into the weekend, where US and Iranian officials are to meet for peace talks in Pakistan. While preparations are proceeding “full steam ahead” in the Pakistani capital, both sides have issued warnings that could still derail the meeting. Heading into the confab, US President Trump said he is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach, but warned that if no deal is reached, “it is going to be very painful”.
- USTs are currently flat, with price action lacklustre heading into US CPI. Currently trades within a 111-05 to 111-11+ range, with the 2yr yield hovering near familiar levels at 3.795%, but still well off the extremes seen during the heights of the Iranian war. Traders are currently awaiting the US inflation report, where analysts expect consumer prices to rise by 0.9% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and the annual rate to jump to 3.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.4%); core inflation is expected to rise 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%). Officials say inflation remains too high, with upside risks if oil shocks spill into core prices and expectations, although expectations are still seen as well anchored at this point.
- Recapping the action this week, USTs are currently higher by 16 ticks vs the Monday open, with strength facilitated by ceasefire related optimism – however, US paper has pulled back from highs given the fragile nature of the two-week pause so far. US 2s10s is near enough unchanged since the start of the week, but did experience some steepening amidst the initial ceasefire related optimism.
- Bunds and Gilts are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, with both currently just off session lows. Earlier, Final German Inflation was unrevised in March, and had little impact on Bunds this morning. The action this week across Bunds is reflective of the easing tensions in the Middle East, with the 2yr yield now residing around 2.56% vs the Tuesday open at 2.65%. This has also been reflected in ECB pricing – with money markets fully pricing in an ECB rate hike in April towards the start of the week, now, only 6bps. The temporary ceasefire will allow policymakers to bide their time and assess whether second-round inflation effects filter through into the economy – markets still pricing in two hikes by year-end.
- Italy sold EUR 8.0bln vs exp. EUR 6.25-8.0bln 2.40% 2029, 3.30% 2033 and 3.95% 2041 BTP.
- Australia sold AUD 1bln 1.00% December 2030 bonds, b/c 3.29, avg. yield 4.6278%.
COMMODITIES
- Oil rose for a second consecutive session after Saudi Arabia said attacks on energy infrastructure had reduced its production capacity, with Brent climbing above USD 96/bbl. Despite the rebound, both benchmarks remain on course for their largest weekly loss since June, following Tuesday’s ceasefire announcement. Middle East situation aside, a piece in Bloomberg suggested that Ukraine’s top aide Budanov reportedly saw Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin – though this interview was conducted on April 4th. Nonetheless, this spurred some pressure in Brent Jun’26, falling to a session low of USD 96.03/bbl before paring back towards USD 97/bbl mark, with gains currently around USD 1/bbl.
- Ahead, the focus is on weekend talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan. The diplomatic picture remains complicated, however. US President Trump said he was “optimistic” about a deal but threatened Tehran over reported fees being levied on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran was doing a “poor job” of allowing energy supplies to flow despite ceasefire commitments. He also asked Israeli PM Netanyahu to scale back attacks on Lebanon, amid concerns the fighting could undermine negotiations – a view echoed by both Iran and ceasefire mediator Pakistan, which have described Israel’s Lebanon offensive as a truce violation.
- Spot gold trades subdued on either side USD 4,750/oz (USD 4,731-4,780/oz), but on track for a third straight weekly gain, supported by central bank buying and diplomatic hopes. Critical Metals’ CEO cautioned that bullion could face pressure if oil prices rebound materially, stoking inflation concerns and rate expectations.
- Copper is flat in indecisive trade with broader base metals mixed. 3M LME copper currently trades in a 12,641.00- 12,772.87/t range. In data, China’s factory deflation ended after more than three years, with PPI rising 0.5% Y/Y in March (exp. 0.4%), as surging energy costs snapped the deflationary streak.
- US offers 30mln barrels in crude oil exchange from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as part of IEA coordinate release.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said to release about 20 days of oil stockpiles in May.
- China allows state oil firms to release their reserves amid US-Iran conflict.
- TotalEnergies (TTE FP) said it shut down SATORP refinery in Saudi Arabia as safety precaution following processing train damage.
- EU and US nearing a critical minerals deal to “combat Chinese control”, Bloomberg reported.
- Venezuela passes mining law as Acting President Rodriguez courts investment, according to Bloomberg.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- Taiwan is to launch an anti-dumping probe into China’s polyamide films.
- Ecuador raises the duty on Colombian imports to 100% from 50%, citing Colombia’s failure on border security.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- US President Trump endorses Hungarian PM Orban, reiterates that he’s a truly strong and powerful leader with a proven track record delivering phenomenal results.
- UK retail footfall returned to growth in March as a number of visits to stores comprising of main street shops, retail parks and shopping centres for the five weeks to April 4th rose 2.4% Y/Y, according to the British Retail Consortium.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- German Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 1.9%).
- German Inflation Rate MoM Final (Mar) M/M 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.2%).
- Norwegian Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mar) Y/Y 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3%).
- Norwegian Core Inflation Rate MoM (Mar) M/M 0.1% (Prev. 0.7%).
- Norwegian Inflation Rate YoY (Mar) Y/Y 3.6% (Prev. 2.7%).
- Norwegian Inflation Rate MoM (Mar) M/M 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Italian Industrial Production YoY (Feb) Y/Y 0.5% (Prev. -0.6%).
- Italian Industrial Production MoM (Feb) M/M 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.6%).
- Swedish GDP MoM (Feb) M/M 0.0% (Prev. -1.1%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- US Senate Banking panel is no longer intending to conduct a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh next week with the delay due to paperwork.
- BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said no strict definition on what constitutes stagflation, adds must be vigilant to chance Middle East conflict, which if prolonged, could work to weigh on the economy and push up inflation. Doesn’t think Japan’s economy is in stagflation. Face dilemma if prolonged Middle East conflict pushes down growth and accelerates inflation. Will make appropriate decisions on price target and will make the appropriate decision at each meeting. Will take most appropriate policy to stably hit the inflation target, considering scale and duration of shocks and broader economic environment.
- BoK maintains the Base Rate at 2.50%, as expected.
- BoK said rate decision was unanimous and that Middle East conflict poses risks to growth. Growth likely to be below 2% this year. To thoroughly assess external and internal conditions including the Middle East situation. To closely monitor impact on inflation, growth and financial stability. Necessary to remain cautious about FX volatility. Inflation likely to be significantly above 2.2% this year. Raises 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.8% and CPI forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%.
- BoK Governor Rhee said growth path to hinge on the Middle East and trade conditions, adds board members are in wait-and-see mode as Middle East conflict situation is too volatile. It is too early to judge the direction of the Middle East shock, stating that a temporary shock does not warrant a rate response, although a prolonged shock may require a policy response. Iran war has a bigger impact on inflation and growth outlook in South Korea than the war in Ukraine. To assess the size and duration of the Middle East war impact. Too early to discuss a rate hike amid Middle East volatility. Board needs to watch the course of Middle East negotiations first. Asian economies more vulnerable to supply-side impact from Iran war compared to European economies.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Trump administration reportedly considering a new crackdown on Chinese telecom Carriers’ US operations, according to the agency.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly summoned Wall Street CEOs to discuss Anthropic’s Mythos.
- BofA’s weekly flow report noted USD 70.7bln into cash, USD 36.8bln into stocks, USD 8.7bln into bonds, USD 3.5bln into gold, USD 0.2bln into crypto.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump posted “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonourable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!”.
- US President Trump posted “There are reported that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”.
- US President Trump criticises WSJ for stating he declared premature victory in Iran, adds there is nothing premature about it, also said because of him, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and oil will start flowing very quickly.
- Iran reiterates no talks will happen until attacks stop and no delegation is heading to Pakistan. However, it was reported that the Iranian delegation arrived in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad late on Thursday for upcoming talks, with the delegation led by Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf.
- Informed source told Tasnim that news in some media about the arrival of Iranian negotiating teams to Islamabad to negotiate with Americans is completely false, adds until US fulfils commitments negotiations are suspended.
- Iranian delegation has not yet reached Islamabad despite plans for the first round of negotiations today, Pakistan media report.
- IRGC affirms Iran’s armed forces have absolutely not carried out any launches towards any country during the ceasefire hours up to this moment.
- UK Government said UK PM Starmer and US Present Trump spoke this evening, and agreed there is a ceasefire in place, agreement to open the Strait, and we are at the next stage of finding a resolution. Discussed the need for a practical plan to get shipping moving again as quickly as possible and agreed to speak again soon.
- Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei may deliver address to the nation soon, TASS reported.
- Israeli Chief of Staff Zamir said will continue the war in Lebanon, can return to the war against Iran at any moment and with greater force.
- Israel is working to continue the war on Lebanon within two days and 5 more days before responding to American pressures, Al Jazeera reported citing Ma’ariv sources.
- Israeli airstrike targets Habbouch town in southern Lebanon, while reported also noted that siren sound in Metula, Israel.
- Iranian media reported of intense activity of hostile drones in Iranian cities Tehran, Parachin, Tabriz, and other cities.
- Six rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards Al Jalil in northern Israel.
- Air raid sirens have sounded in the Mizgav Am and Metula settlements in northern Israel.
- Air raid alarms were activated in Tel Aviv, while Israeli military said Hezbollah launched a missile at Israel which set off air raid alarms.
- Warning sirens sound in Kiryat Shimona and surrounding areas, according to Mehr News.
- Shipping traffic in Strait of Hormuz was down on Thursday as just six ships travelled through the strait with two oil tankers among the six ships, according to CBS.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky’s top aide/negotiator Budanov reportedly sees Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin, Bloomberg reports; interview conducted on April 4th.
- Russia’s Kremlin confirms envoy Dmitriev’s trip to the US, says Dmitriev is not negotiating on a Ukraine settlement.
OTHERS
- Chinese President Xi said China will never tolerate Taiwan independence, CCTV reported.
- North Korea’s Foreign Minister tells Chinese counterpart that ties between the two countries are developing into an elevated new phase.
- China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said it is China’s steadfast stance to strengthen China-North Korea relations, irrespective of any shift in the international landscape, according to KCNA. North Korea has achieved results despite suppression by the US and Western powers.
- Cuba’s President said asked the US to engage in a dialogue without condition and not demand changes from our political system.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin tops USD 72k, while Ethereum briefly extends above USD 2.2k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall Street, where markets extended on the ceasefire-driven momentum, although strikes continued in the region and Israel declared it will keep striking Lebanon ahead of talks next week. Furthermore, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a virtual standstill, and US President Trump criticised Iran on the Strait of Hormuz and warned it to stop charging tolls in the strait.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and energy, while nearly all sectors were lacklustre, aside from the mild resilience seen in real estate and financials.
- Nikkei 225 rallied with index heavyweight Fast Retailing among the top gainers after its shares surged to fresh record highs following strong earnings results, while participants also reflected on PPI data, which ultimately printed mixed, but showed an acceleration for both the M/M and Y/Y figures.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid some strength in tech, property and auto stocks, while the latest inflation data for China was mixed as CPI printed softer-than-expected, but PPI slightly topped forecasts and showed a return to growth in factory gate prices for the first time in more than three years.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama declines to comment on FX levels and said the government is prepared to take decisive action in markets, but will not elaborate on future potential measures. said: Speculation is intensifying in oil, futures, and currency markets.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama say unable to gauge the effect of a food sales tax reduction on prices at this stage and not in a position to discuss steps against possible oil supply deficits. Will co-chair a session on critical minerals on the margins of the G7 meeting. Private credit will be on the G7 agenda but no significant crisis is seen and Japan has no substantial exposure. G7 finance ministers unanimously agree the Middle East situation should not be extended.
- South Korean parties agree on an extra budget size of KRW 26.2tln, according to Yonhap.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese Inflation Rate YoY (Mar) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.3%).
- Chinese Inflation Rate MoM (Mar) M/M -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 1%).
- Chinese PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.9%).
- Australian Private House Approvals MoM Final (Feb) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 1.1%).
- Australian Building Permits MoM Final (Feb) M/M 29.7% vs. Exp. 29.7% (Prev. -7.2%).
- Australian Building Permits YoY Final (Feb) Y/Y 14.0% vs. Exp. 14.0% (Prev. -15.7%).
- Japanese PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2%).
- Japanese PPI MoM (Mar) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. -0.1%).
1 c) Asian opening report
Bourses helped by stabilising oil prices, Brent +1%; US inflation ahead – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 02:08 AM
- US President Trump said he is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach, while he added that Iran’s leaders talk much differently when at a meeting than they do to the press, and they are much more reasonable.
- US President Trump posted, “There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”
- An informed source stated Tehran rules out the option of negotiating with Washington until a complete ceasefire is established in Lebanon, and has strongly asserted this position.
- An Israeli official said they will scale back operations in Lebanon in the coming days due to US pressure, according to Channel 13.
- APAC stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Inflation Final (Mar), Norwegian Inflation (Mar), Swedish GDP (Feb), Canadian Jobs Report (Mar), US Inflation (Mar), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Apr), Comments from ECB’s de Guindos, Supply from Italy, Credit Ratings updates including Moody’s on France, S&P on the UK & Scope Ratings on Hungary.
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said he is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach, while he added that Iran’s leaders talk much differently when at a meeting than they do to the press, and they are much more reasonable. Furthermore, he said Iran is agreeing to all the things that they have to agree to, and if they do not make a deal, it is going to be very painful, according to NBC citing a phone interview.
- US President Trump criticised WSJ for stating he declared premature victory in Iran, and said there is nothing premature about it. Trump added that because of him, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and “very quickly, you’ll see oil start flowing”, with or without Iran’s help, and it makes no difference, either way.
- US President Trump posted “There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”
- US President Trump posted “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!”
- US President Trump and UK PM Starmer discussed the Iran war and agreed to find a way to restart Hormuz traffic, while they said they are at the next stage of finding a resolution and discussed the need for a practical plan to get shipping moving again as quickly as possible.
- US Deputy Secretary of State Landau summoned the Iraqi Ambassador Nizar Khirullah and expressed strong condemnation of attacks by Iran-aligned militia groups launched from Iraqi territory, against US diplomatic personnel and facilities.
- US will host diplomatic talks to craft a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, according to CBS citing sources, while the sources described the meeting as a discussion about how to launch direct talks. Multiple diplomatic sources said President Trump had been told that the ceasefire would apply to the Middle East region, and he agreed that it included Lebanon, while two sources familiar said the changing US positions and the disjointed regime in Iran are making the diplomacy highly complex. Furthermore, it was reported that sources indicated Lebanese PM Salam will travel to Washington next week.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader said Iran is not seeking war but will not forfeit its rights and they are still awaiting an appropriate reaction from southern neighbours so Iran can “show you our brotherhood”. Furthermore, it was stated that Iran will seek retribution for attacks on it, and is moving to a new phase of managing the Hormuz Strait, while Iran is resolute in taking revenge for its late supreme leader and its martyrs.
- Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the rejection of the US plan and acceptance of Iran’s 10-point plan is a victory and should be considered only the first and incomplete step, while he added that the path ahead still has many complexities and if political and military officials are negligent or make mistakes, the victory achieved will remain incomplete. Ghalibaf later commented that time is running out.
- Informed source stated Tehran rules out the option of negotiating with Washington until a complete ceasefire is established in Lebanon and has strongly asserted this position, while the source said one of the operational options on the table is to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. Furthermore, the source stated that according to statistics and field observations as of Thursday morning, it is clear that this strategic maritime route remains closed, and this situation will continue until a complete ceasefire with Lebanon is achieved.
- Iranian delegation was initially reported to have arrived in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad late on Thursday for upcoming talks, with the delegation led by Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, according to WSJ. However, an informed source told Tasnim that news in some media about the arrival of Iranian negotiating teams to Islamabad to negotiate with Americans is completely false, while the source stated that until the US fulfills commitments, negotiations are suspended
- Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz was down on Thursday as just six ships travelled through the strait, with two oil tankers among the six ships, according to CBS.
- Iran’s head of Strategic Council of Foreign Relations Kamal Karazi died from injuries sustained during US-Israeli strikes earlier this month.
- IRGC affirmed it carried out no launches during the ceasefire.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said that, in light of repeated and ongoing appeals from Lebanon to open direct negotiations with Israel, he instructed the cabinet to open direct negotiations with Lebanon at the earliest possible time.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said there is no ceasefire in Lebanon and they won’t stop until northern Israel is secure, while he added they are continuing to strike Hezbollah with force, and he aims to reach more peace deals with Arab nations.
- Israeli source said negotiations will take place under fire at this moment and that they are preparing for continued strikes, according to a Now 14 journalist.
- Israeli Chief of Staff said the army is in a state of war and they continue to fight Hezbollah with full force.
- Israeli official said they will scale back operations in Lebanon in the coming days due to US pressure, according to Channel 13. It was separately reported that an Israeli senior official said, “There is no ceasefire. The negotiations will begin in the coming days,” while another official said direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will start next week, and the first meeting will be held at the State Department in Washington.
- Negotiations between Lebanon and Israel will be held next Tuesday in Washington, while Beirut is demanding that a ceasefire be implemented alongside the start of negotiations.
- Senior Lebanese officials said Lebanon is advocating for a temporary ceasefire to allow for talks with Israel, while officials stated that any talks would be a separate track but follow the same model as the US-Iran truce brokered by Pakistan.
- Lebanon’s Hezbollah Lawmaker Ali Fayyad said the group rejects direct negotiations with Israel and that the Lebanese government should demand a ceasefire as a precondition before any further steps.
- The sound of seven to eight powerful explosions was reported in western Tehran, according to Iran International.
- Explosions were heard in Kuwait, the UAE, eastern Saudi Arabia, and in Basra, Iraq, late on Thursday. Furthermore, the Kuwaiti army said it was dealing with hostile attacks from drones that have breached the country’s airspace and targeted some vital facilities, while sources reported a drone attack in the United Arab Emirates and the activation of air defence systems in Dubai.
- IDF carried out strikes in Lebanon in an attempt to thwart planned rocket barrages toward Israel. Israeli airstrike targeted Habbouch town in southern Lebanon.
- Air raid alarms were activated in Tel Aviv, and the Israeli military said Hezbollah launched a missile, while sirens also sounded in Metula, Israel.
- NATO Secretary General Rutte said NATO will be willing to play a role in a possible Strait of Hormuz mission if it is able to.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were firmer on Thursday as markets extended the post-ceasefire risk-on tone. Oil prices were choppy, ultimately settling higher but well below pre-ceasefire levels. Crude was rallying in the morning, but weakness followed reports that US President Trump urged Israeli PM Netanyahu to de-escalate operations in Lebanon, with prices extending losses after Israel confirmed it had opened negotiations with Lebanon. However, oil later pared some of the declines as Netanyahu pushed back on calls for an immediate ceasefire, while reports of damage to Saudi infrastructure earlier in the week also lent support. The move in oil drove cross-asset price action, with Treasuries bid — particularly at the front-end — as easing inflation concerns supported a continued steepening of the curve.
- SPX +0.62% at 6,825, NDX +0.72% at 25,082, DJI +0.58% at 48,186, RUT +0.60% at 2,636.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- USTR Greer said a meeting planned on Friday with Chinese officials is likely to discuss policy outcomes for the Trump-Xi meeting, while no deliverables on autos are planned for the Trump-Xi meeting. Greer also stated that the Trump administration sees no changes in connected vehicle rules that effectively bar Chinese autos from the US market, and it would “probably be difficult” for Chinese automakers to establish US production, given connected vehicle rules.
- Ecuador raised the duty on Colombian imports to 100% from 50%, citing Colombia’s failure on border security.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US Senate Banking panel no longer intends to conduct a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh next week, with the hearing delayed due to paperwork.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall Street, where markets extended on the ceasefire-driven momentum, although strikes continued in the region and Israel declared it will keep striking Lebanon ahead of talks next week. Furthermore, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a virtual standstill, and US President Trump criticised Iran on the Strait of Hormuz and warned it to stop charging tolls in the strait.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and energy, while nearly all sectors were lacklustre, aside from the mild resilience seen in real estate and financials.
- Nikkei 225 rallied with index heavyweight Fast Retailing among the top gainers after its shares surged to fresh record highs following strong earnings results, while participants also reflected on PPI data, which ultimately printed mixed, but showed an acceleration for both the M/M and Y/Y figures.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid some strength in tech, property and auto stocks, while the latest inflation data for China was mixed as CPI printed softer-than-expected, but PPI slightly topped forecasts and showed a return to growth in factory gate prices for the first time in more than three years.
- US equity futures traded sideways and held on to their recent spoils.
- European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY regained some composure after the prior day’s losses and as focus remained on geopolitical headlines, with diplomatic efforts between Israel and Lebanon for a broader ceasefire in the region, upended after Israeli PM Netanyahu remained firm in his push to strike Hezbollah, while talks between Israel and Lebanon are set to take place next week, although firing continues ahead of discussion. Furthermore, there was a recent slew of data, which ultimately did little to shift the outlook or prices, and it was also reported that the Senate Banking panel no longer intends to conduct a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh next week, with the delay due to his paperwork.
- EUR/USD marginally eased back after it recently benefitted from a weaker dollar and briefly returned to 1.1700 territory, but with price action contained amid the lack of major events scheduled on Friday.
- GBP/USD traded sideways amid light UK newsflow and with little reaction to the return to growth of UK retail footfall, which was distorted due to Easter.
- USD/JPY held on to the recently reclaimed 159.00 handle but with further upside capped after the acceleration in Japanese PPI data and with some jawboning from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who said the government is prepared to take decisive action in markets, but would not elaborate on potential measures.
- Antipodeans marginally declined amid the weak risk appetite on both sides of the Tasman and with a choppy reaction seen to mixed Chinese inflation data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8654 vs exp. 6.8313 (Prev. 6.8649)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were little changed after the prior day’s fluctuations and as the recent slew of data took a back seat to the geopolitical updates, while the curve had steepened on broader ceasefire plans.
- Bund futures were contained following the recent pullback and stronger-than-expected German trade data.
- 10yr JGB futures steadily retreated and returned to beneath the 130.00 level following an acceleration in PPI data and recent comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino, who said they will take the most appropriate policy to stably hit the inflation target, considering scale and duration of shocks, and the broader economic environment.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were rangebound following the prior day’s indecisive performance, in which the crude benchmarks pared some of the ceasefire-related losses, albeit in a choppy fashion, as the fragile US-Iran ceasefire appeared to be holding for now and US President Trump voiced optimism that an Iran peace deal is within reach. Conversely, there were reports late on Thursday of explosions in Tehran and several of Iran’s Gulf neighbours, while the IDF continued to strike Lebanon with Israeli PM Netanyahu declaring no ceasefire in Lebanon and that they won’t stop until Northern Israel is secure, despite reports of planned Israel-Lebanon talks next week. Furthermore, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a virtual standstill, with reports noting that just six ships travelled through the strait on Thursday, with two oil tankers among those six ships.
- Saudi Energy Ministry official source said operating activities were halted at several energy facilities due to recent attacks which targeted the pumping stations on the East-West pipeline, leading to a loss of roughly 700k bpd in throughput, while the attacks resulted in a total reduction in the Kingdom’s production capacity to approximately 600k bpd.
- US offered 30mln barrels in a crude oil exchange from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as part of the IEA coordinated release.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said they are to release about 20 days of oil stockpiles in May.
- Spot gold lacked direction and took a breather after yesterday’s advances towards the USD 4,800/oz level, where the precious metal then hit resistance before retracing some of the gains.
- Copper futures eked mild gains amid the mostly positive risk environment overnight and following a return to growth in Chinese factory gate prices, which exited deflationary territory for the first time in over 3 years.
- Venezuela passed a mining law as Acting President Rodriguez courts investment, according to Bloomberg.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin traded rangebound and failed to sustain a brief foray above the USD 72,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US President Trump’s administration is reportedly considering a new crackdown on Chinese telecom carriers’ US operations.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama declined to comment on FX levels and said the government is prepared to take decisive action in markets, but will not elaborate on future potential measures, while she also noted that speculation is intensifying in oil, futures, and currency markets.
- BoK held its base rate at 2.50%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it stated that the Middle East conflict poses risks to growth, while it is to thoroughly assess the external and internal conditions, including the Middle East situation, as well as closely monitor the impact on inflation, growth and financial stability. BoK said it is necessary to remain cautious about FX volatility and noted that trade uncertainties, Middle East conflict and the chips sector momentum will impact growth ahead. BoK Governor Rhee said the growth path is to hinge on the Middle East and trade conditions, while he added that board members are in wait-and-see mode as Middle East conflict situation is too volatile, and it is too early to judge the direction of the Middle East shock, stating that a temporary shock does not warrant a rate response, although a prolonged shock may require a policy response. Furthermore, he said they are to assess the size and duration of the Middle East war impact and it is too early to discuss a rate hike amid Middle East volatility, while the recent introduction of a dotplot forward guidance is positive for policy transparency, but added whether or not the BoK’s dotplot would continue as a policy tool will be determined by the incoming governor.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI MM (Mar) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 1%)
- Chinese CPI YY (Mar) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.3%)
- Chinese PPI YY (Mar) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.9%)
- Japanese PPI MoM (Mar) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. -0.1%)
- Japanese PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian President Putin announced an Easter ceasefire from 16:00 April 11th until the end of April 12th, 2026, according to TASS.
- Russian President Putin’s Special Envoy Dmitriev is in the US and is meeting members of the Trump admin to discuss Ukraine and economic cooperation, while the visit comes before the sanctions relief on Russian oil expires on April 11th.
OTHER
- US President Trump’s administration is weighing a plan to retaliate against NATO allies seen as unhelpful during the conflict with Iran by shifting US troops away from these countries, an administration official told ABC News.
- North Korea’s Foreign Minister told his Chinese counterpart that ties between the two countries are developing into an elevated new phase, while China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said it is China’s steadfast stance to strengthen China-North Korea relations, irrespective of any shift in the international landscape. Furthermore, Wang said North Korea has achieved results despite suppression by the US and Western powers, according to KCNA.
- Cuba President Diaz-Canel said he won’t step down, while he asked the US to engage in a dialogue without conditions and not demand changes from our political system.
- EU is poised to slash up to EUR 1.5bln in funding to Serbia over democracy fears, Politico reported.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK retail footfall returned to growth in March as a number of visits to stores comprising of main street shops, retail parks and shopping centres for the five weeks to April 4th rose 2.4% Y/Y, according to BRC.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
3. CHINA/
China’s Debt Surpasses Europe For The First Time
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 02:45 AM
China’s government debt has surpassed the European Union’s for the first time, marking a major shift in the global debt landscape.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S., China, and Europe have followed very different borrowing paths. While Europe kept debt growth relatively constrained, both the U.S. and China expanded rapidly—especially after 2020.
The chart below, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, visualizes annual government debt totals for the U.S., EU, and China from 1995 to 2025 in current U.S. dollars (not adjusted for inflation), using data from the IMF.
In 2025, China’s government debt reached $18.7 trillion, surpassing the EU’s $17.6 trillion total for the first time.
The crossover underscores how rapidly China’s borrowing has scaled over the past two decades.
The Rapid Rise in U.S. and China’s Government Debt
In 2008, U.S. government debt stood at $10.9 trillion, roughly in line with the EU’s $10.7 trillion total. By 2025, it had surged to $38.3 trillion, leaving the EU behind by $20.7 trillion.
The data table below shows the government debt of the U.S., China, and EU from 1995 to 2025 in current U.S. dollars:
From just $1.2 trillion in 2008, China’s government debt grew at roughly 17% annually—fast enough to overtake the EU in less than two decades.
Since 2008, U.S. government debt expanded at about 7.7% per year, compared with roughly 3.0% per year for the EU.
Why China and U.S. Debt Grew Much Faster than Europe’s
While the EU’s slower debt growth partially reflects weaker nominal growth across the bloc compared to the U.S. and China, it also is a symptom of the bloc’s tighter fiscal constraints after Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, which peaked between 2010 and 2012.
In contrast, China’s surge in debt was driven by credit expansion, infrastructure spending, and state-backed growth.
The U.S., meanwhile, combined crisis-era borrowing with persistent deficits, especially after 2020, allowing debt to scale far beyond Europe’s. With fewer fiscal constraints at the federal level, Washington has maintained higher spending levels—helping explain why U.S. debt now stands far above both China and the EU.
If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The World’s $111 Trillion in Government Debt on Voronoi.
CHINA//
Beijing Cries Foul Over Chinese Scientist’s Death Following Alleged US Interrogation – Feds Tight-Lipped
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 04:40 PM
China is accusing U.S. federal authorities of “hostile questioning” by US law enforcement following the death of a groundbreaking Chinese semiconductor researcher who fell to his death inside a University of Michigan building last month, while American law enforcement and university officials remain tight-lipped about any federal involvement.
Danhao Wang, an assistant research scientist in the University of Michigan’s College of Engineering, died after falling from an upper level inside the George G. Brown Building on the Ann Arbor campus around 11 p.m. on March 19. University police responded to the scene and pronounced him dead. The incident is being investigated as a possible act of self-harm, with no indication of foul play or any ongoing threat to the campus community.
Chinese officials, including the embassy in Washington and the consulate in Chicago, have strongly linked Wang’s death to what they describe as “unwarranted” interrogation by U.S. law enforcement just before the incident. Beijing has lodged multiple “solemn representations,” accusing the U.S. of overstating national security concerns, engaging in political manipulation, and subjecting Chinese scholars to discriminatory practices that create a “chilling effect” on academic exchanges.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry and embassy spokespeople have publicly demanded a full investigation, a “responsible explanation” to Wang’s family, and an end to such alleged harassment. The embassy confirmed Wang died by suicide and has been assisting his family.
U.S. authorities have offered no confirmation or denial of any questioning. The FBI’s Detroit field office cited its longstanding policy of neither confirming nor denying investigations involving specific individuals. University police and administrators have released only basic details about the fall while the case remains active.
Wang had worked in Prof. Zetian Mi’s lab since 2022, focusing on wide-bandgap III-nitride semiconductor materials and devices. His research centered on emerging wurtzite ferroelectric nitrides — advanced materials with unique polarization properties that could revolutionize electronics.
Groundbreaking Research
Wang’s most significant contribution was as co-first author on a landmark 2025 paper in Nature titled “Electric-field-induced domain walls in wurtzite ferroelectrics.” The work solved a long-standing puzzle: why these ferroelectric nitrides remain stable despite extreme polarization discontinuities that should theoretically tear the crystal apart.
Using transmission electron microscopy and density functional theory, the team discovered that when an electric field reverses polarization, “domain walls” form at the interfaces. These walls feature a unique buckled hexagonal atomic arrangement – never observed before – where dangling bonds with negatively charged electrons precisely compensate the positive charge buildup, stabilizing the material.
Critically, these domain walls also create highly conductive pathways – roughly 100 times more charge carriers than in standard gallium nitride transistors. The conductivity is electrically tunable: it can be turned on/off, moved, or adjusted in strength using the same field that controls polarization.
The breakthrough has sweeping implications for the semiconductor industry:
- Ultra-low-power computing and AI: Ferroelectric field-effect transistors (FeFETs) could integrate non-volatile memory and logic in the same material, slashing energy use in AI chips, edge devices, and data centers.
- High-power and high-frequency electronics: Domain-wall transistors promise superior performance in RF devices, power amplifiers, and next-generation power electronics.
- Neuromorphic and memory tech: The materials support brain-like synaptic behavior and energy-efficient non-volatile memory.
- Broader applications: Sensors, MEMS devices, quantum photonics, and hybrid optoelectronic systems all stand to benefit from the tunable ferroelectric properties.
University of Michigan Engineering Dean Karen Thole called Wang “a promising and brilliant young mind” whose work represented a landmark advance in uncovering the switching and charge compensation mechanisms of these emerging nitrides.
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS PLUS NATO
GERMANY
MISES
Germany Restricts Emigration To Prevent Young Men From Escaping The Military Draft
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Ryan McMaken via the Mises Institute,
Late last year, German lawmakers passed new legislation paving the way for military conscription. As the Guardian reports, “The change will include the obligatory screening of all 18-year-old men to gauge their suitability to serve in the military from 1 January..” This is not (yet) full-blown conscription, but clearly moves in that direction, providing the German state with a plan to measure and assess the availability of young men who can be used as a resource in coming military conflicts.
Now, the legislation faces additional opposition because it turns out the law “requires men aged up to 45 to get permission from the armed forces before any significant stay abroad, even in peacetime.” In other words, the law restricts the emigration of young men who might be of some use to the state as cannon fodder. According to The Guardian:
The fine print, which went largely under the radar until a media report called attention to it this week, says men aged 17 to 45 would have to apply for authorisation to leave Germany for more than three months. … The clause could potentially affect millions of German citizens embarking on anything from a gap year or study abroad to a new job or sabbatical.
It touched off agitated media coverage in a country where the changes to the military service policy have already led to street protests by school pupils subject to the law’s new requirements.
From restrictions on free speech to attempts to shut down entire political parties, the German state has increasingly showed its affinity for despotism in recent years. Now, by introducing emigration controls, Germany is reverting to an old tactic used by militarist, socialistic European regimes of the past.
As I showed in a 2018 article on how restriction on emigration are a hallmark of despotic states, mandatory military service has long been used as a justification for regulating those who seek to leave the country:
According to Stanley Johnson, in Emigration from the United Kingdom to North America, 1763-1912, “In Germany, an enactment of 1897 forbade the departure of any citizen who had not completed his military training; it appointed also, a special staff of officials to regulate the emigration agencies.” Also: “The movement in Italy is practically in the hands of the Government, and no one can lawfully depart from trans-Atlantic ports without special permission.” In Italy, as in Hungary, there were only certain government approved “routes by which all migrants are to travel.” In Russia, “permits for crossing the frontier are only granted when all military obligations are at an end.”
Military service was not the only reason for restricting emigration, of course. European states restricted emigration whenever it was thought potential migrants might be fleeced for tax revenue or other riches before being allowed to leave. In Alan Kulikoff’s book From British Peasants to Colonial American Farmers, he states
Dissatisfied German peasants, like those in Britain, could emigrate, but German states, worried about losing population and taxes, put roadblocks in their way. Emigrants had to settle all debts and taxes. Free emigrants had to pay large fees for permission to depart and to take property with them, and serfs – a substantial part of the populace – had to pay manumission fees amounting to 12-25 percent of their property.”
Many emigrated anyway, often illegally. Indeed, military conscription proved to be a motivation for countless men across many regions from Spain to Germany to the Ottoman Empire, and to Japan. As I note in this article from 2022:
Some immigrant groups in America, such as the Volga Germans, are practically defined by their avoidance of conscription. Specifically, the Volga Germans in America are descended from Germans who emigrated to Russia in the eighteenth century on the condition that they would not be subject to conscription into the czar’s army. When these exemptions were revoked in the nineteenth century, many Volga Germans emigrated to the United States, where they today constitute a sizable portion of the ethnic German populations of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oregon, and Washington. Anabaptist subgroups of the Volga Germans also fled to America to avoid conscription. Groups such as the Hutterites and the Mennonites were explicitly opposed to military service. …
Before the Volga Germans, many other Germans had fled the German kingdoms. A large percentage of Germans arrived in Chicago “during the 1830s … to avoid conscription in the army.”
In Spain during the 1860s, unknown numbers of young men fled to avoid military service to the crown, even in spite of the watchful eyes of government agents seeking to prevent emigration. Wayne H. Bowen writes:
Given the poor conditions for troops, conscription was always a challenge for the central government. Many potential soldiers did their best to avoid service, even through leaving Spain. Emigration was a serious problem, as the families of young boys tried to send them to the colonies or encouraged them to emigrate to Latin America or the United States in order to avoid conscription. The Guardia Civil, Spain’s national paramilitary police, had orders to watch the coast and port cities for young men trying to leave, and colonial governors were prohibited from issuing passports to boys who could not prove service or exemption.
Membership in an ethnic minority in Spain likely provided an added impetus to exit, and “evasion of military service was … widespread among Spanish Basques.”
Meanwhile, in Japan, “militarization [in the early twentieth century] and the initiation of the so-called blood tax or national conscription also encouraged many young Japanese males to emigrate to avoid the draft.” Many went to Peru and Brazil.
Although the German state has not yet adopted full conscription, Berlin is clearly up to its old tricks. Of course, the fact that the German state has to take these steps at all shows just unpopular German foreign policy is. After all, if the public were supportive of the state, conscription—or “pre-conscription,” so to speak—would not be necessary. The “need” to impose forced military service on the population is always an illustration of a state lacking legitimacy. Moreover, if a state has to intervene to prevent people from leaving, what does that tell us about that state’s so-called “social contract.” After all, how many times have we heard the political myth that sounds something like this “by choosing to live in this country, you are saying that you will abide by all the state’s demands and rules. Thus, everything the state does to you is voluntary.” But now, it seems, young men will need to get permission to leave. That’s a truly strange social “contract” indeed.
END
UK
WATSON/
Revealed: All Members Of UK Government’s ‘Anti-Muslim Hostility’ Group Have Islamist Links
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
The UK Labour government’s new definition of “anti-Muslim hostility” – rebranded from “Islamophobia” – is being shaped by a working group where every single member has links to Islamist organisations.
The details are exposed in the Free Speech Union’s latest investigative briefing which highlights ties between the group members and the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) and Muslim Engagement and Development (MEND), groups that governments since 2009 have refused to engage with due to their extreme views.
One member, Baroness Gohir, tweeted in support of Hamas in 2014. Another stood for the far-left, Islamist-supporting Respect Party.
As the Free Speech Union states: “In a free society, no religion should enjoy greater protection than others — nor be shielded from legitimate criticism and challenge.”
The FSU adds: “This group was stacked with members already sympathetic to such a definition.” And with the government yet to appoint a new Islamophobia tsar, “there is deep cause for concern.”
Conservative MP Katie Lam put it bluntly in her video response: “The Government’s new ‘anti-Muslim hostility’ definition will make it harder to talk about Islamist extremism, FGM, and the grooming gangs. They’d rather restrict our right to criticise than deal with these problems head-on. It’s putting us all in danger.”
Parliament abolished blasphemy laws in 2008. Yet as the FSU warns: “This Government risks reviving them for Islam alone, via the back door.”
The wider context is the government’s “Protecting What Matters” report from March 2026, which rolled out the non-statutory definition alongside plans for a special representative on Muslim hostility. Officials insist it protects free speech – but the panel’s composition tells a different story.
Read the full Free Speech Union briefing here.
This comes just weeks after we reported on the government’s leaked social cohesion strategy that branded the Union Flag a “tool of hate” and told schools children’s drawings could be blasphemous under Islamic law.
UK Government Brands Union Flag A ‘TOOL OF HATE’ In Leaked ‘Social Cohesion’ Strategy
It builds directly on the Orwellian push we exposed where UK schools are urged to snitch on “anti-Muslim hostility.”
The pattern is clear: criticism of Islam is being reframed as hostility, while real problems like grooming gangs, FGM and Islamist extremism are sidelined.
Challenging Islamist extremism or mass migration’s consequences is now being treated as the real threat. Legitimate debate on integration failures, cultural clashes, or grooming scandals gets reclassified as “hostility” while the actual problems fester.
Britain’s free speech tradition is under sustained assault – not from the public, but from a government more interested in shielding one ideology than defending open society.
The Free Speech Union is right to sound the alarm. Without pushback, this backdoor blasphemy regime will silence the very conversations the country desperately needs.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL TBN/LAST 24 HRS
ISRAEL/USA/VS IRAN
“That Is Not The Agreement We Have!” President Trump Slams Aya-TOLL-Ah Charging Fees For Hormuz Transit
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 06:45 PM
Summary:
- Bibi says pursuing Lebanon ceasefire after reports of Trump pressure. Over 250 killed and 1,000+ wounded in Lebanon from Wednesday surprise attack by Israel’s military. UAE, Pakistan, and even EU (Kallas) condemn.
- Trump ‘optimistic’ a deal within reach (NBC). WH confirms Vice President Vance will lead Kushner-Witkoff delegation in Pakistan, seen as positive in Tehran and Islamabad.
- Trump warns of more military action if Iran doesn’t uphold ‘real’ ceasefire deal, after disagreement over Lebanon truce status as part of deal.
- Despite some last-minute shots in Lebanon by Israel, bombs go largely silent across Gulf and Middle East.
- Hormuz Strait still effectively controlled by Iran: only a few vessels had passed on Wednesday. TASS reporting only 15 ‘vetted’ tankers per day to be let through. Thursday sees first non-Iranian tanker pass since ceasefire.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-by-april-15th-962-364-677&height=300Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Yes 9% · No 92%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
“That Is Not The Agreement We Have!” President Trump Slams Aya-TOLL-Ah Charging Fees For Hormuz Transit
The last few hours have set the hopes for peace back a little as President Trump and the Ayatollah traded blows over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
First was the new Supreme Leader, Ayatoolah Motjaba Khameini’s post on X that:
“We will definitely take the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new phase.”
Which prompted a response from President Trump:
“There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”
And then an hour or so later, President Trump turned the rhetoric dial up to ’11’ once again:
“Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz.
That is not the agreement we have!”
Having earlier described Iran’s leaders as “much more reasonable” than their public comments would suggest, the new Supreme Leader also repeated demands for war reparations – a definite non-starter for US negotiators.
Stocks dipped and oil rallied modestly on this tête-à-tête.
It sounds like the adults really need to get in a room and figure this out (VP JD Vance is expected to lead the US delegation in discussions scheduled for Islamabad on Saturday) or the rally in stocks (and decline in oil costs) will be gone before anyone books any profits.
END
UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT:
Live Updates: Sirens sound in North as ceasefire talks set to start, IDF warns Hezbollah against using ambulances
Former Iranian FM dies from wounds caused by airstrike • Netanyahu announces negotiations to begin with Lebanon • IDF attacks Hezbollah rocket launcher sites • Trump: Iran not honoring Hormuz deal
A Hezbollah flag waves among a destroyed building following an Israeli airstrike during a media tour in Baalbek, Lebanon, on March 23, 2026.(photo credit: Jonathan Labusch / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
April 10, 10:48 AM
END
April 10, 10:48 AM
IDF: Hezbollah must stop using ambulances or face consequences
Hezbollah must stop using ambulances as part of its terror operations in Lebanon immediately, IDF Arabic Spokesperson Col. (res.) Avichay Adraee said in a Friday post to X/Twitter.
He warned that “if this conduct is not halted, Israel will act in accordance with international law against any military activity carried out by the terrorist Hezbollah using those facilities and ambulances.
END
Former Iranian FM Kharazi dies from wounds following airstrike, state media says
Kharazi’s home was struck by the “American-Zionist enemy” on April 1 as part of operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, according to state-run Iranian media at the time.
Then-Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharazi speaks during a press conference in Tehran 19 June 2005.(photo credit: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)
Former Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharazi, 81, died on Thursday night from injuries sustained in an airstrike on his Tehran residence, Iranian state media reported on Friday morning.
Kharazi’s home was struck by the “American-Zionist enemy” on April 1 as part of operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, according to state-run Iranian media. His wife was killed immediately, and he was left seriously wounded, being hospitalized since.
Iran did not specify whether the strike was carried out by the US or Israel.
END
ISRAEL/USA IRAN/THIS MORNING NEWS/ZEROHEDGE
Pakistan Under Security Lockdown As Iran Delegation Arrives For US Talks – Fighting Hasn’t Ceased In Lebanon
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 09:15 AM
Summary:
- Iran makes clear, Lebanon fighting must end or else Pakistan talks “meaningless” – as its delegation arrives in ‘locked down’ Pakistan.
- Trump ‘optimistic’ a deal within reach – also as Israel-Lebanon talks scheduled in Washington next week. US delegation headed by Vance en route to Islamabad.
- Lloyd’s: “The Iranians are willing to negotiate with certain countries to secure voyages, but only on a case-by-case basis.”
- After days of search and rescue, Lebanon death toll stands at over 300 following the Wednesday ‘surprise’ Israeli strikes. Sporadic IDF attacks continue on south and east.
* * *
Sporadic Fighting Persists in Lebanon
A big question remains: will Israel and Lebanon actually formally start the ceasefire negotiations that Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered his cabinet to prepare for? Negotiations are tentatively expected to begin next week at the State Department in Washington. The massive Israeli strikes from earlier this week have threatened to derail the Iran ceasefire deal before it really gets off the ground.
For now, Israel has continued attacking Lebanon on Friday, also as Hezbollah has continued firing missiles on northern Israel. Wednesday saw some 70 rockets fired from Lebanon, after the earlier massive Israeli surprise attacks which killed over 300 Lebanese and over 1,150 wounded. There may be some ground fighting in the south too, amid ongoing IDF aerial attacks on southern Lebanon. Al Jazeera says that an Israeli airstrike hit the town of al-Tayri in southern Lebanon, and another targeted the town of Sahmar in the western Bekaa region of eastern Lebanon. Heavy Israeli strikes in the Nabatieh area of southern Lebanon have also been reported Friday.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem has vowed in a statement carried by AI Mayadeen that the Iran-aligned group will “remain steadfast” as “resistance will continue until our last breath.” He praised Hezbollah for thwarting a ground invasion, saying “the enemy was surprised by the methods of resistance, the flexibility of the Mujahideen movement, and their defensive capabilities.” He vowed, “We will not accept a return to the previous situation, and we call on officials to stop offering free concessions,” while denouncing the “bloody criminality on Wednesday.”
Iranian Delegation Arrives in Pakistan
As the US and Iran prepare for talks in Pakistan, the Lebanon crisis is still a closely watched sticky issue which could escalate before it gets better. Pakistani media has reported that the Iranian delegation has arrived for negotiations, which are set to proceed Saturday, also pending the arrival of the US team headed by Vice President JD Vance – and including Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
US team headed by Vance en route to Pakistan…
However, there’s been no official confirmed info about the arrival of Iranian Parliament Speaker and the Foreign Minister, but we can at least assume that Abbas Araghchi will be there in person. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf is likely there too.
Meanwhile, unconfirmed/developing chatter of division within Iranian negotiating ranks:
THE IRGC COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF AHMAD VAHIDI IS SEEKING TO CURB THE AUTHORITY OF MOHAMMAD BAGHER GHALIBAF AND FOREIGN MINISTER ABBAS ARAGHCHI IN THE TALKS. || VAHIDI HAS ALSO PUSHED FOR THE INCLUSION OF MOHAMMAD BAGHER ZOLGHADR, SECRETARY OF THE SUPREME NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, IN THE NEGOTIATING TEAM — A MOVE OPPOSED BY CURRENT MEMBERS, WHO CONSIDER HIM LACKING EXPERIENCE FOR STRATEGIC NEGOTIATIONS. – SOURCES
SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE LOCKED IN A DISPUTE OVER THE COMPOSITION AND AUTHORITY OF THE DELEGATION SET TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE UNITED STATES IN ISLAMABAD, ACCORDING TO INFORMATION RECEIVED BY IRAN INTERNATIONAL. – SOURCES
Islamabad is said to be under effective lockdown while hosting the high stakes summit. President Trump previously expressed concern over the security situation, related to sending Vance. One outlet observes, “Pakistan has ramped up security in Islamabad ahead of high-stakes direct talks between the United States and Iran, with the federal capital administration declaring a two-day public holiday on Thursday and Friday.”
A Pakistani official has told The Guardian, “Our priority is that the talks go smoothly. We don’t want to be seen as a spoiler. Our role is as a facilitator and mediator. We will leave it to both parties, Iran and the US, to share any developments with the media if they want.”
Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has made clear Iran’s position that any peace negotiations would be “meaningless” if they took place while Israeli bombs continue to fall on Lebanon.
Hormuz Status Update: ‘No Option’ but to Negotiate Passage with Iran
As a reminder, President Trump has stated that Iran is “doing a very poor job” of allowing oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz and warned Tehran against imposing tolls on vessels transiting the waterway. An Iranian lawmaker stated earlier that some ships are being charged as much as $2 million for passage through the strait.
Reuters highlights that the majority of ships that have sailed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past day were linked to Iran, per fresh tracking data. The majority of vessels, however, are still not risking passage with the waterway still under threat.
“Three tankers – a crude supertanker that can carry 2 million barrels of oil, a bunkering tanker and a smaller oil ship – all left Iranian waters in the past 24 hours, based on separate data analysis from Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence platforms,” Reuters notes. “Four dry bulk ships – including one that loaded iron ore from Iran bound for China – also sailed in the past day, the data shows.”
On the evening of Islamabad talks, Iran holds the Hormuz leverage. “The Iranians are willing to negotiate with certain countries to secure voyages, but only on a case-by-case basis,” said Bridget Diakun, a senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, to the NY Times. “The Trump administration is forcing its allies to negotiate with Iran because there is no other option.”
END
LATE MORNING ZERO HEDGE/ISRAEL/IRAN/USA
Iran Parliament Speaker Demands Israel Halt Lebanon Attacks Or Else Peace Talks In Pakistan Are Off
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 09:15 AM
Summary:
- Iran makes clear Lebanon fighting must end or else Pakistan talks “meaningless” – as its delegation arrives in ‘locked down’ Pakistan. Speculation abounds related to ongoing Pentagon transport flights into Mideast region.
- Trump ‘optimistic’ a deal within reach – also as Israel-Lebanon talks scheduled in Washington next week. US delegation headed by Vance en route to Islamabad.
- Lloyd’s: “The Iranians are willing to negotiate with certain countries to secure voyages, but only on a case-by-case basis.” A handful of mostly Iranian/China-linked tankers have passed in last 24 hours.
- After days of search and rescue, Lebanon death toll stands at over 300 following the Wednesday ‘surprise’ Israeli strikes. Sporadic IDF attacks continue on south and east.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 19% · No 82%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* *
Iran Parliament spokesman Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, considered the official who is likely running the country day-to-day, says there will be no negotiations before the following:
1) ceasefire in Lebanon
2) release of Iran’s blocked assets: “release of Iran’s blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.”
Oil jumped on the news. This as some sporadic Israeli bombings of Lebanese territory have persisted into Friday, despite talk of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, with talks expected in Washington next week. It’s unclear whether Tehran and its negotiating team which just touched down in Pakistan will hold to this or not.
Likely at the very least the talks could start in ‘indirect’ format amid these fresh Iranian demands. Trump had also the day prior warned that Iran better not be collecting tolls for Hormuz Strait passage.
Are Talks Cover for Bigger Pentagon Build-Up, Future Attack?
Some pundits say that Washington needed more time to get large contingencies of Marines and Airborne units in place, possibly for some kind of risky island campaign towards reopening the strait. This could be the case, as it’s also very evident to all that the demands of each side remain far apart, which means the chances for a breakthrough deal which finally ends the war are distant.
With a two week timeline in place to reach a deal, is this interim period merely for rearming and regrouping of forces on each side? Clearly, the US wasn’t prepared for the fierce, sustained Iranian counter-attack on American regional bases and Gulf allies.
Open-source data of military logistics flights between the US, Europe, and the Mideast region suggests there is indeed an ongoing build-up and posturing of forces happening on the eve of the Pakistan summit.
Sporadic Fighting Persists in Lebanon
A big question remains: will Israel and Lebanon actually formally start the ceasefire negotiations that Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered his cabinet to prepare for? Negotiations are tentatively expected to begin next week at the State Department in Washington. The massive Israeli strikes from earlier this week have threatened to derail the Iran ceasefire deal before it really gets off the ground.
Senior Iranian security sources suggests should Israel strike Beirut again, the US-Iran negotiations will be terminated: Press TV
For now, Israel has continued attacking Lebanon on Friday, also as Hezbollah has continued firing missiles on northern Israel. Wednesday saw some 70 rockets fired from Lebanon, after the earlier massive Israeli surprise attacks which killed over 300 Lebanese and over 1,150 wounded. There may be some ground fighting in the south too, amid ongoing IDF aerial attacks on southern Lebanon. Al Jazeera says that an Israeli airstrike hit the town of al-Tayri in southern Lebanon, and another targeted the town of Sahmar in the western Bekaa region of eastern Lebanon. Heavy Israeli strikes in the Nabatieh area of southern Lebanon have also been reported Friday.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem has vowed in a statement carried by AI Mayadeen that the Iran-aligned group will “remain steadfast” as “resistance will continue until our last breath.” He praised Hezbollah for thwarting a ground invasion, saying “the enemy was surprised by the methods of resistance, the flexibility of the Mujahideen movement, and their defensive capabilities.” He vowed, “We will not accept a return to the previous situation, and we call on officials to stop offering free concessions,” while denouncing the “bloody criminality on Wednesday.”
Iranian Delegation Arrives in Pakistan
As the US and Iran prepare for talks in Pakistan, the Lebanon crisis is still a closely watched sticky issue which could escalate before it gets better. Pakistani media has reported that the Iranian delegation has arrived for negotiations, which are set to proceed Saturday, also pending the arrival of the US team headed by Vice President JD Vance – and including Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
US team headed by Vance en route to Pakistan…
END
EARLY AFTERNOON/ZEROHEDGE
Iran Demands Israel Halt Lebanon Attacks As Both Sides Arrive In Pakistan, Trump Threatens Strikes If Peace Fails
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 11:30 AM
Summary:
- Iran makes clear Lebanon fighting must end or else Pakistan talks “meaningless” – as its delegation arrives in ‘locked down’ Pakistan. Speculation abounds related to ongoing Pentagon transport flights into Mideast region.
- Trump threatens more military action if Iran doesn’t ‘comply’ – also as Israel-Lebanon talks scheduled in Washington next week. US delegation headed by Vance en route to Islamabad. But parliament speaker makes fresh demands on Lebanon.
- Lloyd’s: “The Iranians are willing to negotiate with certain countries to secure voyages, but only on a case-by-case basis.” A handful of mostly Iranian/China-linked tankers have passed in last 24 hours.
- After days of search and rescue, Lebanon death toll stands at over 300 following the Wednesday ‘surprise’ Israeli strikes. Sporadic IDF attacks continue on south and east.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 19% · No 82%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Trump Warns Attack on Iran Will Continue if Tehran Doesn’t Comply
President Trump has confirmed to the NY Post that he’s preparing the US military for what would likely be a bigger Iran operation should Tehran not comply, and should Pakistan talks fail.
“We’re going to find out in about 24 hours. We’re going to know soon,” Trump told the Post when asked if he thinks the talks will be successful.
Already there’s a lot of back and forth over the 10-point plan on the eve of the summit, and with both sides now in Islamabad. A main point of contention remains whether Lebanon is part of the two-week ceasefire agreement.
There’s also been much speculation that all of this is just ‘cover’ for a bigger build-up of Pentagon forces in the region. Also, Iranian forces are no doubt using the opportunity to regroup.
Ghalibaf Demands Attacks on Lebanon Cease Or Else…
Iran Parliament spokesman Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, considered the official who is likely running the country day-to-day, says there will be no negotiations before the following:
1) ceasefire in Lebanon
2) release of Iran’s blocked assets: “release of Iran’s blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.”
Oil jumped on the news. This as some sporadic Israeli bombings of Lebanese territory have persisted into Friday, despite talk of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, with talks expected in Washington next week. It’s unclear whether Tehran and its negotiating team which just touched down in Pakistan will hold to this or not.
Likely at the very least the talks could start in ‘indirect’ format amid these fresh Iranian demands. Trump had also the day prior warned that Iran better not be collecting tolls for Hormuz Strait passage. Some of the latest:
THE IRANIAN DELEGATION WILL PARTICIPATE IN THE NEGOTIATIONS TOMORROW DESPITE THE IRANIAN STATEMENTS ABOUT LEBANON – SOURCES
THE AMERICAN AND IRANIAN TECHNICAL DELEGATIONS ARRIVED IN PAKISTAN THIS MORNING – SOURCES
TIGHT-LIPPED ON INFORMATION ABOUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE IRANIAN DELEGATION TO PAKISTAN – SOURCES
END
JERUSALEM POST NEWS MID AFTERNOON
Live Updates: IDF destroys launcher fired from inside school, Israel excludes France from talks with Lebanon
IDF reservist severely wounded, another soldier lightly injured by shrapnel • Israel expels Spain from US’s CMCC in Kiryat Gat over ‘blatant anti-Israel bias’
IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon, April 10, 2026.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
April 10, 7:01 PM
IRGC commander, Iranian FM Araghchi clash over negotiating team before US-Iran talks – report
The sources shared that IRGC Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi is attempting to curb the authority of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
(
L to R) Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, ran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi(photo credit: AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES, Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images, Valentin Flauraud/AFP via Getty Images)
Senior Iranian officials are disagreeing over the composition of the negotiating team ahead of US-Iran talks on Friday, Iran International reported, citing informed sources.
The sources shared that IRGC Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi is attempting to curb the authority of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran International wrote.
Vahidi has called for the inclusion of Mohammad Bagheer Zolghadr on the negotiating team, whom Iran International previously reported had been appointed Secretary of the National Security Council as a direct result of IRGC pressure on Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
April 10, 6:33 PM
Hezbollah chief tells Lebanese officials to stop “free concessions” to Israel
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem told Lebanese officials to stop giving “free concessions” to Israel in a written letter on Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported.
According to Qassem, Israeli forces were caught off guard by Hezbollah’s tactics and have escalated strikes on civilian areas.
Qassem wrote that the fight was a national effort. “Together, as a state, army, people, and resistance, we protect our country,” he said, warning that any heavy Israeli troop deployment would lead to heavy losses.
April 10, 6:06 PM
Iran parliament speaker says Lebanon ceasefire, asset release must precede talks
ByREUTERS
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on Friday that two previously agreed measures, a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets, must be implemented before negotiations begin.
In a post on X on Friday, Ghalibaf said the steps were part of commitments made between the parties and warned that talks should not start until they were fulfilled, amid mounting disputes over ceasefire terms and continued hostilities in Lebanon.
April 10, 5:54 PM
IDF reservist severely wounded, another soldier lightly injured by shrapnel in southern Lebanon
The IDF said on Friday that two soldiers, one of them a reservist, were wounded by shrapnel from an explosive drone in southern Lebanon, with one of them being severely wounded.
The military said that both of the soldiers were evacuated to a hospital, with their families being notified about the incident.
April 10, 5:13 PM
Iran claims Israel agreed to stop attacks on Beirut, Dahiyeh as part of ceasefire
Iran claimed that, as part of the ceasefire and as a condition to continue negotiations with the US, Israel agreed to stop any attacks on Beirut and the Dahiyeh district, which is one of Hezbollah’s strongholds.
Over the last 24 hours, no attacks were made against the area, while the claim shows that Iran lowered its demand for a complete ceasefire with Hezbollah to a stop of attacks against Beirut.
April 10, 4:29 PM
WATCH: IDF destroys Hezbollah rocket launcher that fired from inside school in Lebanon
“The IDF views with severity the Hezbollah terrorist organization’s cynical use of civilian infrastructure for military activity,” the military said about the incident in the school.
ByTOBIAS HOLCMANhttps://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4036275&url=https://www.jpost.com/Hezbollah terrorists launch rockets to northern Israel from a school and concealed a launcher within it. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson Unit)
The IDF located and destroyed a Hezbollah rocket launcher located inside a school compound in the Tir Zibneh area in southern Lebanon, the military said on Friday.
The IDF explained that it identified a Hezbollah truck entering the premises and tracked the trajectory of one of the latest rocket barrages to a launcher placed inside the school compound.
“The IDF views with severity the Hezbollah terrorist organization’s cynical use of civilian infrastructure for military activity and will continue to operate against the organization’s military infrastructure in accordance with international law to defend the State of Israel,” the military said.
The IDF also said that it had killed more than 1400 Hezbollah terrorists during the current operation in southern Lebanon, with air, ground, and naval forces involved in locating and eliminating the Hezbollah targets.
In addition, almost 4000 infrastructures were located and dismantled by soldiers from the IDF’s 36th, 91st, 98th, 146th, and 162nd Divisions, with more than 1250 weapons, ammunition, and rockets located.Go to the full article > >
April 10, 4:29 PM
Israel excludes France from talks with Lebanon, sources tell ‘Post’
An Israeli official said that “France’s conduct over the past year…has led Israel to view France as an unfair mediator.”
French President Emmanuel Macron and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun attend a meeting with Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa joining remotely, during a visit at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, March 28, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/Pool)
Israel has refused to allow France to be involved in the direct talks between it and Lebanon, which are set to begin next week in Washington, two sources told The Jerusalem Post on Friday.
An Israeli official said that “France’s conduct over the past year – including initiatives aimed at limiting Israel’s ability to fight in Iran, and a complete lack of willingness to take concrete steps to help Lebanon disarm Hezbollah – has led Israel to view France as an unfair mediator.”
The Israeli decision follows growing anger over France’s behavior in recent months, particularly since the joint Israeli-American strike against Iran. France refused to allow US aircraft carrying weapons to Israel to pass through its airspace.Go to the full article > >
April 10, 3:54 PM
Vance says he expects Iran talks to be positive
ByREUTERS
United States Vice President JD Vance said on Friday that he was looking forward to upcoming negotiations with Iran and expected the talks in Islamabad to be positive.
Vance spoke just before leaving Washington for Pakistan.
April 10, 3:20 PM
USTR: If China gets involved in Iran, will complicate matters
ByREUTERS
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Friday that the United States is trying to have a stable relationship with China, but if Beijing is going to be involved with Iran in a way that goes against US interests, that would complicate matters.
In an interview on CNBC, Greer said he expected President Donald Trump to have a good meeting next month with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but not every challenge with China is resolved.
April 10, 2:45 PM
Israel expels Spain from US’s CMCC in Kiryat Gat over ‘blatant anti-Israel bias’
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar noted that the move was carried out in coordination with the United States.
The US Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC) at Kiryat Gat.(photo credit: CHEN SCHIMMEL)
Israel expelled Spain from the US’s Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC) in Kiryat Gat, according to a Foreign Ministry statement on Friday afternoon.
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar noted that the move, which was carried out in coordination with the United States, stemmed from the Spanish government’s “blatant anti-Israel bias.”
“The Sanchez government has such a blatant anti-Israel bias that it has lost all ability to serve as a useful factor in the implementation of [US President Donald] Trump’s peace plan and in the CMCC that operates within the plan,” Sa’ar said.
Spain was notified of the decision.
The CMCC was created in October 2025 to oversee and facilitate the flow of humanitarian, logistical, and security assistance from the international community into the Gaza Strip as part of Trump’s Gaza peace plan.
This is a developing story.Go to the full article > >
ISRAEL IRAN/USA
‘Iran will not forfeit its rights’: Statement attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei read on state TV
“Iran is not seeking war but will not forfeit its rights and considers all resistance fronts as a unified entity,” Khamenei added.
State media in Iran published a written message from the new leader on Thursday evening after nearly two weeks without any message or sign of him. These outlets also appear to have used image-enhancement tools to make Mojtaba Khamenei’s face look more polished(photo credit: IRNA)ByREUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFAPRIL 9, 2026 21:11Updated: APRIL 9, 2026 22:04
Iran will move the management of the strategic Strait of Hormuz into a new phase, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said on Thursday in a written statement read out on state TV.
“Iran is not seeking war but will not forfeit its rights and considers all resistance fronts as a unified entity,” the statement added.
The statement, released on the 40th day since the assassination of former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, praised the former leader. “For forty days, the exalted soul of our martyred leader has been in divine proximity, joined among the righteous,” said Khamenei’s apparent statement.
Turning to the war itself, the statement quoted Khamenei as saying that Iran had emerged victorious “despite the enemy’s aggression and losses suffered,” adding, “with certainty that the Iranian nation has achieved victory.”
“The rise of the Islamic Republic as a major power and the decline of global arrogance are presented as visible to all,” said the statement.
“For forty days, the devoted followers of the revolution have stood with courage in the fields, streets, and battlefronts,” continued the apparent statement. “The Iranian people, though grieving, turned their sorrow into resistance and determination, astonishing their enemies and inspiring observers worldwide.”
Addressing Iran’s neighbors in the region, the statement said that Iran is still awaiting an appropriate response from them “so that we may show you our brotherhood and goodwill.”
Khamenei is quoted as calling on supporters to continue demonstrations, noting that they are “critical” even during a ceasefire.
The statement concluded with recommendations to the Iranian public, advising them to “guard their ears” against “hostile or enemy-aligned media.”
Second written statement attributed to Khamenei
The statement released on Thursday is the second such statement attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen since the war began on February 28.
END
TOUSI IRAN TV
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA
and they are part of the negotiating team?
Israel a ‘curse for humanity,’ says Pakistan Defense Minister
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif’s comments came as Islamabad positions itself as a major player in ceasefire talks between the US, Israel, and Iran.
Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif speaks during an interview with Reuters in Islamabad, Pakistan, October 20, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Salahuddin)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFAPRIL 10, 2026 00:27Updated: APRIL 10, 2026 09:24
Israel is “evil and a curse for humanity,” Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said in a since-deleted Thursday post to X/Twitter, adding that he hopes its founders will “burn in hell.”
His remarks come as Islamabad tries to position itself as a diplomatic player in efforts to contain the widening regional war.
Pakistan has publicly pushed for an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon while also preparing to host diplomatic talks about the Iran war in Islamabad.
Pakistan said Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam had sought its support for an “immediate end” to the attacks, Reuters reported. An Iranian delegation was due in Islamabad that night for talks tied to the broader crisis, a separate Reuters report said.
“Israel is evil and a curse for humanity,” Asif wrote in the deleted post. While peace talks were taking place in Islamabad, “genocide” was being carried out in Lebanon, he said. Innocent civilians were being killed by Israel “first in Gaza, then in Iran, and now in Lebanon,” and the bloodshed was continuing without pause, he added.
In the post, Asif wrote that he hoped those who created “this cancerous state” on Palestinian land “to get rid of European Jews” would “burn in hell.”
His language went far beyond standard diplomatic criticism and amounted to one of the most incendiary anti-Israel statements by a serving Pakistani official. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry used more formal, though still harsh, language on Thursday. Israel’s actions in Lebanon constituted “a blatant violation of international law and fundamental humanitarian principles,” it said.
Last month, the ministry condemned Israel’s “continued military aggression” in Lebanon and said Pakistan stood in “complete solidarity” with the Lebanese people.
Asif has used extreme rhetoric against Israel this year. In January, he said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “the biggest criminal of humanity” and urged that he be “kidnapped” and brought to court. He suggested that Turkey could abduct him.
Zionism a ‘threat to humanity,’ says Asif
“Zionism is a threat to humanity,” Asif wrote in March, escalating his criticism from Israeli policy to Zionism itself.
The timing of Thursday’s outburst made it especially striking.
Islamabad has tried to cast itself as a mediator and regional stabilizer as US-Iran diplomacy moved through Pakistan. Nevertheless, one of its senior cabinet ministers used language that attacked not only Israel’s conduct but the state’s very creation.
That contrast is likely to draw fresh scrutiny to Pakistan’s role as it seeks diplomatic relevance in one of the region’s most volatile moments.
Huckabee, Leiter condemn Asif over antisemitic comments
Israel’s Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter and US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee condemned Asif for his inflammatory comments on X.
“The Ayatollahs chanted “Death to Israel” – and now a so-called “mediator” is echoing the same language,” Leiter wrote in a Friday morning X post, calling Asif not a mediator, but “the problem.”
“Even if it is to your dismay, Israel is here to stay,” Leiter went on. “That’s not for negotiation.”
Huckabee, sharing a similar sentiment on X, said that he sees firsthand how Israel works to avoid harming civilians, and that he also sees the reason behind Israel’s fight, noting the October 7 massacre, the threat Hezbollah poses in Lebanon, and the Iranian ballistic and nuclear threat.
“Want peace?” he asked, “Stop Iran & its puppet proxies.”
end
Huckabee, Leiter condemn Pakistani defense minister over antisemitic comments
Israel’s Ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, and US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee condemned Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif for his inflammatory comments on X/Twitter.
“The Ayatollahs chanted ‘Death to Israel’ – and now a so-called ‘mediator’ is echoing the same language,” Leiter wrote in a Friday morning X post, calling Asif not a mediator, but “the problem.”
“Even if it is to your dismay, Israel is here to stay,” Leiter went on. “That’s not for negotiation.”
Huckabee, sharing a similar sentiment on X, said that he sees firsthand how Israel works to avoid harming civilians, and that he also sees the reason behind Israel’s fight, noting the October 7 massacre, the threat Hezbollah poses in Lebanon, and the Iranian ballistic and nuclear threat.
“Want peace?” he asked, “Stop Iran & its puppet proxies.”
END
April 10, 7:46 AM
they did not commit to ensure a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.. USA must end these negotiations period!!
Iranian official: Negotiations on hold until US upholds Lebanon-Israel ceasefire – report
Negotiations between the United States and Iran are on hold until the US fulfills its commitment to ensure a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Israeli media reported on Friday morning.
According to Israeli public broadcaster KAN News, Lebanese officials want ceasefire negotiations with Israel to continue “even under fire.”
However, “the Lebanese government will need to dismiss Hezbollah ministers as a confidence-building step,” an Israeli government source told KAN.
April 10, 6:36 AM
Trump, Starmer discuss reopening of Strait of Hormuz
The reopening of the Strait, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil consumption, is an important component of the US-Iran ceasefire deal.
The Callisto tanker sits anchored as the traffic is down in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Muscat, Oman, March 10, 2026.(photo credit: BENOIT TESSIER/REUTERS)
A plan to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “as quickly as possible” was discussed on Thursday between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Donald Trump.
Starmer informed Trump of the UK’s efforts to convene partners to agree on a “viable plan” to restore free navigation in the waterway, a critical route for global trade.
“They agreed that now there is a ceasefire in place and agreement to open the Strait, we are at the next stage of finding a resolution,” Downing Street said in a statement.
“The leaders discussed the need for a practical plan to get shipping moving again as quickly as possible,” it said, adding that Trump and Starmer would speak again soon.
HEZBOLLAH VS ISRAEL
With Iran ceasefire set, IDF chief declares Hezbollah main front
Zamir said that “Iran from before the war is not the same as Iran now,” adding “now it is much weaker.”
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir.(photo credit: MOSHE SHAI/FLASH90)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBAPRIL 9, 2026 22:50Updated: APRIL 9, 2026 22:51
With the US-Iran-Israel ceasefire closing out its second day, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, on Thursday night, declared that the fighting with Hezbollah in Lebanon has now become the main front.
Zamir said that “Iran from before the war is not the same as Iran now,” adding “now it is much weaker.”
Further, he said that if the ceasefire fails, Israel is “ready to return to fighting with great power at any moment.”
The IDF chief did not make any reference to the talks with Lebanon over a ceasefire with Hezbollah announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday night.
Rather, Zamir noted that Hezbollah is becoming more isolated both within Lebanon and from Iran.
While Iran has benefited from a two-day ceasefire, Zamir emphasized that the IDF had hit Hezbollah with its heaviest strikes of the war.
In fact, the fact that the air force no longer has to focus its energies on the Islamic regime frees it up more directly to strike Hezbollah.
For most of the war until now, some IDF ground forces commanders have complained that they have lacked sufficient air support, while the air force was busy attacking Iran.
Zamir stated that Hezbollah has fled from its stronghold in Dahiya in Beirut, and not just from southern Lebanon.
Moreover, he said that this round of fighting with Hezbollah represents a unique opportunity
Hopes to coerce Hezbollah into disarming
Israel has said it hopes to use its current military advantage over Hezbollah to coerce it into disarming.
Despite Israel’s tactical military victories against the Lebanese terror group, Hezbollah has managed to maintain nearly constant daily rocket fire on northern Israeli villages and has shown no readiness to fully disarm.
END
the real reason for the 2 week delay:
Speculation Surges That Pakistan Talks Are A Delay Tactic Ahead Of Expanded US Action On Iran
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 11:20 AM
President Trump has made clear that American forces will still be “hanging around” the Persian Gulf area with an eye on Iran, while demanding that the Strait of Hormuz be opened to global energy transit once again.
Trump has vowed to keep troops positioned for a fight “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” As direct US-Iran talks are set for Islamabad Saturday morning, there’s been an avalanche of speculation that the ceasefire could be ‘cover’ for a greater Pentagon force build-up and bigger impending operation.
Some pundits say that Washington needed more time to get large contingencies of Marines and Airborne units in place, possibly for some kind of risky island campaign towards reopening the strait.
This could be the case, as it’s also very evident to all that the demands of each side remain far apart, which means the chances for a breakthrough deal which finally ends the war are distant.
With a two week timeline in place to reach a deal, is this interim period merely for rearming and regrouping of forces on each side?
Clearly, the US wasn’t prepared for the fierce, sustained Iranian counter-attack on American regional bases and Gulf allies.
Open-source data of military logistics flights between the US, Europe, and the Mideast region suggests there is indeed an ongoing build-up and posturing of forces happening on the eve of the Pakistan summit.
Still, it’s clear that Trump needs an offramp, or else face the kind of endless military quagmire which would likely inevitably lead to the GOP getting decimated in next fall’s midterm Congressional elections.
A bigger longer war, or ground conflict, would also damage the chances of a future Vance presidency.
As for Vance, the Associated Press writes, “But the arrival of Vance for negotiations marks a rare moment of high-level U.S. government engagement with the Iranian government. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the most direct contact had been when President Barack Obama in September 2013 called newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to discuss Iran’s nuclear program.”https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 19% · No 82%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
A Pentagon build-up in the region might also be Trump’s way of signaling powerful leverage for more potential major attacks on Iran to come, in order to gain more from negotiations. As yet, Iran holds the key economic leverage given its de fact Hormuz control.
* * *
IRAQ/USA/BAGHDAD
US summons Iraqi ambassador over drone strike on diplomatic facility in Baghdad
Separately, Kuwait condemned what it described as drone attacks by Iran and its proxies targeting vital facilities in the country, calling the strikes a violation of its sovereignty.
Smoke rises after an explosion at the US Embassy compound in Baghdad, Iraq, following a rocket and drone attack, according to security sources, March 17, 2026.(photo credit: REUTERS/Maher Nazeh)ByREUTERSAPRIL 10, 2026 10:18Updated: APRIL 10, 2026 10:22
US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau summoned Iraqi Ambassador Nizar Khirullah on Thursday after a drone struck a major US diplomatic facility in Baghdad, the US State Department said in a statement.
The US Embassy in Baghdad said earlier that Iraqi “terrorist militias,” who Washington accused of being aligned with Iran, had conducted multiple drone attacks near the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center and Baghdad International Airport on Wednesday.
The US State Department said Landau acknowledged the Iraqi security forces’ efforts to respond while emphasizing “the Iraqi government’s failure to prevent these attacks,” adding that Washington expects the Iraqi government to take measures to dismantle Iran-aligned militia groups in Iraq.
It also said that “some elements associated with the Iraqi government continue to actively provide political, financial, and operational cover for the militias.”
Dozens of people have been killed in Iraq since the start of the Iran war, according to Iraqi health authorities. Those include civilians, members of the Iran-affiliated Shi’ite Popular Mobilisation Forces, US-allied Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, police and army.
Kuwait condemns Iranian drone strike on vital facilities
Separately, Kuwait‘s Foreign Ministry condemned what it described as drone attacks by Iran and its proxies targeting vital facilities in the country on Thursday evening, calling the strikes a violation of its sovereignty and airspace.
Statement Issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Friday, 10 April 2026
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expresses the State of Kuwait’s strong condemnation and denunciation of the heinous attacks launched by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies, including factions, militias, and armed groups loyal to it, via drones that targeted several vital facilities in the State of Kuwait, on the evening of Thursday, 9 April 2026, in flagrant violation of the sovereignty of the State of Kuwait and its airspace, and a blatant breach of international law, international humanitarian law, and the United Nations Charter.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirms that the continuation of these brazen attacks launched by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies against the State of Kuwait and the countries of the region undermines the regional and international efforts that have recently borne fruit with the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and constitutes a blatant challenge to the international community.
While the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes the necessity of obligating the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies to immediately and unconditionally cease all hostile acts directed against the State of Kuwait and all other countries of the region in accordance with the provisions of Security Council Resolution 2817 of 2026, it renews its affirmation of the State of Kuwait’s firm adherence to its full and legitimate right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, and to take all necessary measures to preserve its sovereignty, security, and stability.
Earlier on Thursday, Kuwait’s state news agency reported that a National Guard site had been targeted by drones, causing significant material damage but no injuries.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) denied on state media launching any attacks toward Gulf countries during the ceasefire period, adding that if Iran were to carry out any strike, it would announce it publicly in an official statement.
Kuwait said the attacks undermined recent ceasefire efforts between the United States and Iran, and said it reserved the right to take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty and stability.
END
KUWAIT/IRAN
Kuwait accuses Iran of continuing drone attacks despite ceasefire; Tehran blames Israel, US
Hezbollah rocket hits home in Misgav Am, causing damage, no injuries * Iranian delegation said to arrive in Pakistan ahead of talks * Zelensky reveals Ukraine shot down Shahed drones in several Middle East states
AND THEN THIS:
UN warns Lebanon facing food security crisis due to Iran war
By Reuters
Displaced families extend their hands while waiting for donated food beside the tents they use as shelters after fleeing Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanon, in Beirut, Lebanon, April 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)
Lebanon is facing a food security crisis as the Iran war disrupts supplies of goods inside the country, the United Nations World Food Programme says
“What we’re witnessing is not just a displacement crisis, it is rapidly becoming a food security crisis,” says World Food Programme country director Allison Oman, speaking via video link from Beirut.
She warns that food is becoming increasingly unaffordable due to rising prices and rising demand among displaced families.
END
LEBANON ISRAEL
TIMES OF ISRAEL…
Israel says peace talks with Lebanon to begin ASAP, rejects calls for truce first
Under international pressure to engage in diplomacy after deadly strikes, Netanyahu says disarming Hezbollah will be focus of talks, said set to kick off next week in DC
By Lazar Berman, Follow
Nurit Yohanan Follow
and Stav Levaton Follow
9 April 2026, 10:03 pm
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday evening that Israel would begin negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible,” aimed at disarming Hezbollah and reaching a full peace agreement between the countries.
The announcement came a day after the Jewish state led the largest and deadliest wave of airstrikes on its northern neighbor since the start of the current round of fighting with the Iran-backed terror group.
Jerusalem and Beirut seemed to be at odds over the conditions under which the talks would take place, with Lebanon demanding a ceasefire first, while Israel insisted that they be held under fire.
“In light of Lebanon’s repeated appeals to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the cabinet yesterday to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible,” Netanyahu said in a statement, following heavy international pressure on Israel to engage in diplomacy.
The talks “will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon,” he said.
In a later video message, Netanyahu hailed the potential for a “historic and sustainable peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon.”
In a message addressed to residents of northern Israel, the premier stressed that “there is no ceasefire in Lebanon,” noting that Israel was “continuing to strike Hezbollah with great force,” and would “not stop until we restore your security.”
“Our significant achievements both in Iran and against the axis of evil have brought about a historic change in Israel’s standing in the region,” he continued. “They have also led to changes in our relations with countries we did not have relations with before.”
Meanwhile, a senior Lebanese official told Reuters that Lebanon had spent the previous 24 hours advocating for a temporary ceasefire to allow for broader talks with Israel, saying it would be a “separate track but the same model” as a fragile truce brokered by Pakistan between the US and Iran.
The official said no date or location had been set yet, adding that Lebanon needed the US as a mediator and guarantor of any agreement.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said in a statement that “the only solution to the situation Lebanon is facing is a ceasefire with Israel that would lead to direct negotiations between the two countries.”
At a meeting held earlier Thursday with representatives of Lebanon’s Maronite community, Aoun said the Lebanese proposal for a ceasefire and negotiations was beginning to receive positive responses in international circles, adding that Lebanon continued to hold international talks on the matter.
Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad said the jihadist group rejects any direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, reiterating “the necessity of upholding national principles, foremost among them the Israeli withdrawal, the cessation of hostilities, and the return of residents to their villages and towns.”
However, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel that there would be no ceasefire with the terror group ahead of the talks with Lebanon.
The talks were set to begin “in the coming days,” said the official, without giving any more specifics. According to Axios, the first meeting was expected to take place next week in Washington, DC, at the US State Department.
According to the outlet, US President Donald Trump’s Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa will lead the American delegation, while Lebanon’s Ambassador to Washington Nada Hamadeh-Moawad will lead the Lebanese side.
Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter will lead the Israeli delegation, a second Israeli official told The Times of Israel.
According to Hebrew media reports, former minister Ron Dermer — who had been Netanyahu’s preferred envoy for high-stakes talks before stepping down in November — was not set to lead the negotiations, at least for now, because of fundamental disagreements with top officials. Dermer had returned to handle some files for Netanyahu in recent weeks, including Lebanon, but had advocated for including the fight against Hezbollah in the ceasefire with Iran, which Netanyahu firmly opposed.
The Kan public broadcaster cited an unnamed source in Israel’s security cabinet as contending that Lebanon would be required to fire Hezbollah’s government ministers as a trust-building step. The report said Jerusalem believes a deal can be reached before the upcoming Knesset elections, currently slated for October.
In his first statement on the matter Thursday, Netanyahu said that Israel “appreciates the call made today by Lebanon’s prime minister to demilitarize Beirut.”
Lebanon’s cabinet had earlier instructed security forces to restrict weapons in Beirut exclusively to state institutions, a move that falls short of full demilitarization of the capital.
“The army and security forces are requested to immediately begin reinforcing the full imposition of state authority over Beirut Governorate and to monopolize weapons in the hands of legitimate authorities alone,” Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said at the end of a cabinet meeting.
The Lebanese government banned Hezbollah’s military activities at the beginning of March, shortly after the start of the current war with Israel, but the decision has not stopped the terror group from conducting military operations and firing thousands of rockets at Israel.
Also on Thursday, Salam asked his Pakistani counterpart, Shehbaz Sharif, to confirm Lebanon’s inclusion in the Iran war ceasefire. Iran and mediator Pakistan had earlier asserted that the truce also applied to Lebanon, but the US and Israel said it did not. Jerusalem said it would continue its attacks on Hezbollah, which drew Lebanon into the regional war on March 2.
In a statement, Salam’s office said he phoned Sharif, praising Islamabad’s efforts in securing the truce and asking him to “confirm that the ceasefire includes Lebanon to prevent a recurrence of the Israeli attacks witnessed yesterday.”
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed Thursday that Israel’s strikes on Lebanon violated the two-week ceasefire agreement and would render US-Iran negotiations for a wider deal “meaningless.”
The ongoing strikes against Hezbollah “signal deception and non-compliance,” he wrote in a post on X. “Our hands remain on the trigger. Iran will never forsake its Lebanese brothers and sisters.”
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, also said Lebanon was a key part of the truce, warning that violations would bring severe consequences.
This coincided with mounting international condemnations of Israel’s intensified strikes, as well as calls for Lebanon to be encompassed in the truce. Lebanon said Israel’s massive strikes on Wednesday killed over 300 people, without differentiating between civilians and combatants, while Israel said it killed more than 200 Hezbollah members.
NBC News reported that Trump had asked Netanyahu to scale back the strikes on Lebanon to prevent the collapse of the fragile ceasefire with Iran.
The request came during a Wednesday phone call, shortly after Netanyahu publicly vowed to continue striking Lebanon, the American outlet said, citing a senior Trump official.
Trump confirmed the report later in a phone interview with NBC, saying he told Netanyahu to scale back Israel’s bombing of Lebanon in order to preserve the fragile ceasefire with Iran.
“I spoke with Bibi and he’s going to low-key it. I just think we have to be sort of a little more low-key,” Trump said.
US Vice President JD Vance claimed Wednesday that Israel had agreed to “check itself” with regard to Lebanon in order to help the negotiations with Iran, even as the expanded bombing campaign offered no indication that Jerusalem had agreed to show restraint.
On Thursday — the day after Trump made his request — the Israeli Air Force continued bombing Lebanon, albeit at a lower intensity than the day prior.
Channel 12 reported Thursday evening that US officials had been stunned by the scale of Israel’s Wednesday strikes, which reportedly hit hospitals and caused heavy civilian casualties, with senior American officials saying the outcome was not what Trump had in mind when he told Netanyahu that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire deal with Iran.
The report said US special envoy Steve Witkoff called Netanyahu on Wednesday to urge him to scale down operations in Lebanon, before asking Trump to reinforce the message in a follow-up call. The pressure was said to have helped push Israel to agree to the diplomatic talks with Lebanon.
According to the network, the American push is driven by concern that continued fighting in Lebanon could torpedo ongoing negotiations with Iran, with Tehran already threatening to skip planned talks in Pakistan on Saturday in light of Wednesday’s strikes.
According to the report, there is a growing belief that Washington will ultimately steer Israel toward confronting Hezbollah through economic and diplomatic means, rather than sustained military escalation.
Times of Israel staff and agencies contributed to this report.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Russia, Ukraine Agree To Breakthrough 32-hour Orthodox Easter Ceasefire
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 10:00 AM
In a huge and very positive development, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has announced a 32-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, or Pascha, which is this weekend. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has immediately confirmed that Ukraine will honor the holiday truce.
“We proceed on the basis that the Ukrainian side will follow the example of the Russian Federation,” the Kremlin then further confirmed in a statement.
Based on regional media reporting of the rare ceasefire, the pause in fighting will begin at 4pm Moscow time (13:00GMT) on Saturday and run until midnight on Sunday.
This will cover the whole period of Pascha celebrations in both countries, which is done according to the Julian calendar and thus typically comes a weekend or two later that Western Easter (on the Gregorian calendar). The overwhelming majorities of both countries are adherents of the Eastern Orthodox Church.
Typically in orthodox churches there is a long Saturday morning service, and then the main liturgy comes at midnight – going into the early Sunday morning hours, followed by feasting and breaking the Lenten fast. And then late Sunday morning or early after noon there is another service, after which there is more celebratory feasting.
Russian media reports that Defense Minister Andrei Belousov has instructed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to halt Russian military operations during the period; however, just like in past short truces Russia says it will respond immediately to any ‘violations’ observed.
Zelensky meanwhile confirmed that “Ukraine has repeatedly stated that we are ready for reciprocal steps. We proposed a ceasefire during the Easter holiday this year and will act accordingly.”
“People need an Easter without threats and a real move towards peace, and Russia has a chance not to return to attacks even after Easter,” he added.
Such a holiday truce has been tried in the past, but is typically marred by frontline ‘violations’ and tit-for-tat accusations and denunciations.
But this year, after well over four years of brutal fighting which has taken likely hundreds of thousands of lives, there is a good chance the Easter truce will hold given the sheer exhaustion and war-weariness on each side.
What’s more is that if there is success, it could provide the basis for something more lasting, as both sides say they are still interested in hammering out a permanent end to the war. But for Moscow, this will require that Ukraine cede much of the east and give political recognition too, including over Crimea.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Think “Weekends” Rather Than “Weeks”
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 11:40 AM
By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy
As another volatile week comes to an end, investors and market participants appear to be clinging to the hope that the two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which began on Wednesday, will not unravel entirely – at least until a direct, face‑to‑face exchange and clarification of key demands can take place during the planned talks in Islamabad this weekend. Near‑dated Brent crude edged up by $2 to $97, equity markets posted modest declines in Europe, whilst US stocks rose. European bond yields rose by 3–5 basis points, as UST yields dropped a few. This suggests that the powerful risk‑on move seen on Wednesday has been dented but not broken. Experts continue to stress the fragility of the ceasefire, but markets are showing slightly greater confidence than the underlying geopolitical reality might warrant.
Compared with the first day of the ceasefire – which saw Israel launch its largest‑ever strike on Hezbollah, the UAE carry out a large‑scale operation against Iran’s oil and petrochemical assets in the Gulf, and Iran respond with ballistic missile and drone attacks – yesterday’s developments were notably more contained. There were no confirmed direct US‑Iran strikes. That said, Hezbollah did fire rockets into northern Israel, and Iran formally accused the United States of violating the ceasefire due to Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon. Kuwait also accused Iran and its proxies of launching drone attacks.
Crucially, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with only a handful of Iran‑linked and/or Chinese vessels transiting the waterway. Iran indicated that it would allow no more than 15 ships per day to pass under the ceasefire agreement – hardly meaningful given that an estimated 800-900 vessels are still waiting to exit the strait. More fundamentally, the move underscores Iran’s effective control over the waterway, a message reinforced by the publication of “two safe shipping routes” by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization.
As reported earlier this week, shipowners are still grappling with whether – and under what conditions – it is safe to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Insurance is only part of the equation; the security of crews is equally critical. This raises the risk that even once ships can leave the strait to deliver cargoes to Asia and Europe, owners may remain reluctant to re‑enter the area to load new shipments. This reinforces our view that even if the war were to end – a point that remains far from certain – normalisation would not be immediate. A temporary ceasefire, clearly, is not a sufficient condition for a return to business as usual.
On that note, German Chancellor Merz has told President Trump that Germany would back a mission to secure the Strait, but that such an operation would ideally be conducted under a mandate from the UN Security Council. We’ll have to see if the US administration sees any merit in this, as it would imply Russia and China will get a clear say in the matter as well.
Following his meeting with NATO Chef Rutte – which only further exposed the rift in the alliance – Trump has demanded that countries provide concrete, operational support to US military actions – specifically through access to bases, airspace, logistics, and naval participation – rather than limiting themselves to political backing or neutrality. Trump did not issue a formal ultimatum in the meeting, but officials and media reports suggest the administration is considering concrete penalties for uncooperative allies, including redeploying or withdrawing US troops from certain NATO countries, or – more extreme – reassessing US commitments to the alliance as a whole.
7. OIL ISSUES/NATURAL GAS/ENERGY ISSUES/GLOBAL
certainly not what Trump negotiated!
Only Iran “Friendly” Ships Allowed Transit Through Strait, As Tankers Pile Up Near Hormuz, Waiting To Cross
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 12:00 PM
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely limited, with transits over the past 24 hours consisting almost exclusively of ships “friendly” to Iran, including Chinese and Russian vessels. Meanwhile, those expecting the ceasefire to unblock Hormuz have actually seen the opposite: traffic through the strait, which ticked up at the weekend, has since slowed further.
Several fully-laden supertankers have moved toward the waterway in the past two days, but haven’t made the crossing out of the Persian Gulf, despite a US-Iran ceasefire taking effect this week.
Unless anything changes, this weekend’s ceasefire negotiations will be very short: the US has said the truce is conditional on Iran unblocking Hormuz. Yet since Thursday morning, just nine ships out of the roughly 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf, have been observed passing through the strait, with five heading out of the gulf and four going in the opposite direction.
Among the most important was the Suezmax oil tanker Tour 2, hauling about 1 million barrels of Iranian crude out of the waterway. The Russian flagged supertanker Arhimeda moved in the opposite direction toward Iran’s export terminal at Kharg Island.
In a sign of some modest optimism, several oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf are anchoring near the approach to the strait, likely in order to be among the first to get underway as soon as the waterway opens up. Yet even as the ceasefire has pushed shipowners to begin considering options, most say conditions are still too unclear to attempt an exit.
Two Japanese oil tankers – itching with anticipation to get the hell out – left the waters off Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura on Thursday to move closer to the strait. The Mayasan and Yakumosan, both very-large carriers each hauling around 2 million barrels of crude, began sailing east late Thursday from waters off Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, where they have been since mid-March. The Sea Condor, a Greek-flagged products tanker that loaded in Kuwait, was also moving east in the direction of Hormuz.
Mayasan sailed into the gulf a few days before war broke out on Feb. 28, ship-tracking data show. It picked up crude from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in late February. It is indicating Tomakomai, a port in northern Japan, as its destination. Yakumosan entered the gulf in late February, and picked up a cargo of Qatari crude from a floating storage vessel in early March. It then soon took another load from Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah, before idling for a few weeks off Ras Tanura. It is signaling a mustering point off Das Island in the United Arab Emirates as its destination.
The Japanese ships sailing east on Friday have links to Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd., a major Japanese shipowner and key energy player. While the company extracted at least one vessel from the gulf before this week’s truce, President Jotaro Tamura said on Thursday the group would now need to scrutinize details and the implementation of the ceasefire before allowing its tankers to test the Strait of Hormuz.
Mitsui owns Mayasan, while Yakumosan’s owner Phoenix Ocean Corp. shares MOL’s address. MOL said it could not comment on “the navigation status or operational measures of individual vessels,” adding its priority was the safety of seafarers, cargo, and vessels.
The Japanese tankers follow a similar move by three fully-laden Chinese ships. On Thursday, the three Chinese VLCCs clustered at a spot approaching Iran’s Qeshm, the island that now serves as a gateway for Hormuz transits. Two of the ships are linked to China’s Cosco Shipping Corp., a giant and prudent state-owned player.
The Cospearl Lake, a very-large crude carrier linked to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping Corp., and He Rong Hai, owned by a smaller entity, appeared to be traveling east early on Thursday morning at near-top speeds, according to ship-tracking data, before coming to a virtual halt. Another Cosco-linked VLCC, the Yuan Hua Hu, began its eastward journey a few hours later. All three are signaling Chinese ownership on their tracking systems, a move typically done for safety during Iran-approved transits (and in this case they aren’t lying).
The Chinese ships are already notable for their cargoes. Two are carrying Iraqi crude, and the other Saudi. While Iran has referred to “brotherly” Iraq, most other transits have been granted to friendly nations. Iraq has told traders and refiners that vessels carrying the country’s oil are now able to transit the Strait of Hormuz thanks to an Iranian exemption.
Cospearl Lake’s and Yuan Hua Hu’s passages would also mark the first such attempt by a Cosco oil tanker in the six-week war. The company, like other large shipping firms, tends to be conservative, and its crude carriers have been trapped since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began, prompting Iran to all but close Hormuz in retaliation
Sea Condor, the Greek-flagged ship, also moved into the gulf at around the same time and picked up Kuwaiti fuels in early March. Its owner is Turandot Marine Co. which shares the same contact details as its manager, Pantheon Tankers Management, in Athens.
The tankers are part of a growing armada amassing at the entrance to the strait, off the United Arab Emirates. A Saudi Arabian-flagged VLCC, the Jaham, has moved east toward a nearby holding area off Dubai. They join other ships including two Indian-flagged, fully-laden supertankers that have been in the area since late March – the Desh Vibhor, which is off Ras Al Khaimah, and the Desh Vaibhav, which is near Dubai.
Shipowners are not only concerned about the safety of crew and cargo, but also about the need to manage Iranian demands to secure safe passage, including payments which could expose companies to sanctions risks. Trump, who announced a complete opening of Hormuz along with the ceasefire earlier this week, said on Thursday he was optimistic, only to then chastise Iran for doing a “very poor” job of allowing oil through.
Meanwhile, all transits observed in the past day passed through a narrow northern corridor of the Strait between the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm, which is the only passage permitted by Iran’s military.
Observed Transits
According to Bloomberg, since Thursday morning, two Iran-linked oil tankers, two bulkers and a single container ship have been observed leaving the Persian Gulf. The Greek oil tanker Serengeti, which appeared on automated tracking systems off Sri Lanka on Thursday, is estimated to have made the outbound crossing on April 1.
From the other side, two tankers sanctioned by the US for their involvement in the Iranian oil trade – one of which was the Arhimeda – were observed entering the Gulf on Thursday. A small bulk carrier also made the inbound transit. On Friday morning, the only vessel seen heading into the Persian Gulf was a Chinese-linked bulk carrier.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1686 DOWN 0.0006
USA/ YEN 159.32 UP 0.231 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3419 DOWN 0.0003 OR 3 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3835 UP 0.0013 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 20.50 PTS OR 0.24%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 141.14 PTS OR 0.55%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.21%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 141.14 PTS OR 0.55%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.50 PTS OR 0.24%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.21%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1063.18 PTS OR 1.90%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4741.00
silver:$7.495
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 44.69 PLUS 10 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 76.86 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 76 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.8204 UP 7 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.4860 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.452 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.077 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 98.80 DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.446% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.451% UP 7 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.645 UP 3 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.492 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.815 UP 0 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0393 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1712 UP 0.0032 OR 32 basis points
USA/Japan: 159.14 UP 0.045 OR YEN IS UP 5 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.826 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.493 UP 9 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 4 BASIS pts to 1.3820
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP 6.8282 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.8242
TURKISH LIRA: 44.68 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.300.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.911 UP 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.789 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4770.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 75.87
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 2.95 PTS OR 0.03%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 11.65 PTS OR 0.09%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 13.80 PTS OR 0.17%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 99.40 PTS OR 0.55%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 281.37 PTS OR 0.59%
WTI Oil price 97.56 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 95.75 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 76.99 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 12 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.4630 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.076 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1728 UP 0.0037 OR 37 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3467 UP 0.0039 OR 39 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.835 UP 7 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.476 UP 4 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.447 UP 7 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.629 UP 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 159.28 UP 0.190 OR YEN UP 19 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3830 UP 0.0020 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 20 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 96.04
Brent OIL: 94.48
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 4.314
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 2 PTS to 4.913%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.8021 UP 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.473 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.083 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.45 DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.65 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 77.07 DOWN 0 AND 5/100 roubles //
GOLD $4762.00. 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 76.34 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 269.47 UP .56%
NASDAQ 100 UP 34.24 PTS OR 0.14%
VOLATILITY INDEX 19.56 UP 0.07 PTS OR 0.30%
GLD: $ 437.13 DOWN 0.78 PTS OR 0.18%
SLV/ $69.10 UP 0.71 PTS OR OR 1.04%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 172.09 PTS OR 0.51%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Software Slaughtered, Semis Surge, Bitcoin & Bullion Bid As ‘Ceasefire’ Holds Ahead Of Talks
WRAP UP
Markets see two-way action as US/Iran ceasefire talks await – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 04:10 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold down
- REAR VIEW: Iranian officials still demand Lebanon ceasefire to be enacted before negotiations begin; Trump said US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” to resume strikes on Iran if talks fail; US Headline CPI accelerates as expected, Core slightly soft; UoM Consumer Sentiment hits historic low in April; Top Zelensky aid reportedly sees Ukraine nearing a deal with Putin; Trump praises PLTR; Canada unemployment rate stays put.
- COMING UP: Data: US Existing Home Sales (Mar). Events: OPEC MOMR (Apr). Speakers: ECB’s de Guindos; RBA’s Hauser; Fed’s Miran. Earnings: Goldman Sachs, LVMH.
- WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US/Iran Talks, US Earnings Season, US PPI, Chinese GDP, Australian Jobs, UK GDP and ECB Minutes. Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Earnings season begins with big banks kicking things off. Click here for the full report.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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MARKET WRAP
US indices closed the final session of the week mixed, but rangebound, as the Nasdaq 100 edged out slight gains while SPX closed lower by a couple of tenths. Sectors were predominantly in the red, with only Tech, Materials, and Discretionary in the green, while Consumer Staples and Health lagged. The Dollar closed lower for the fifth consecutive day, which saw mixed performance across G10 FX peers; EUR, GBP, and CHF all gained, while the CAD, NZD, and JPY all saw losses vs. the Greenback as Middle East rhetoric once again dominated the tape. All focus is on the US-Iran talks on Saturday, despite the ever-ongoing differences between the sides, with the latest reports suggesting that Iran said talks with the US to begin if ‘preconditions are accepted’, as there continues to be differing opinions regarding Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump told NYP that US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” to resume strikes on Iran if peace talks in Pakistan fail. As such, WTI and Brent were choppy on Friday, but ultimately settled with losses. In the EZ morning, benchmarks saw pressure in the EZ morning amid reports that Ukrainian President Zelensky’s top aide/negotiator Budanov reportedly sees Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin; note, the interview was conducted on April 4th and in the few minutes after the report, Zelensky suggested Putin is not genuinely seeking peace. Precious metals were mixed as spot silver gained, but gold weakened while Treasuries were lower despite softer-than-expected core CPI. Recapping the inflation metrics, the headline surged, as expected, given the Iranian war, continuing to justify the Fed’s wait-and-see mode, while the UoM prelim for April was dismal.
US
MICHIGAN: University of Michigan prelim figures for April disappointed, highlighted by Sentiment tumbling to 47.6 from 53.3, way beneath the expected 52.0. Conditions fell to 50.1 from 55.8, and Expectations dropped to 46.1 from 51.7. Short-term inflation expectations also dramatically increased, given the Middle Eastern war, as 1yr ahead surged to 4.8% from 3.8% (exp. 4.2%), while 5yr was more contained at 3.4%, in line with expected but rising from 3.2%. Open-ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavourable changes to the economy. Note, 98% of interviews were completed prior to the April 7th announcement of a temporary cease-fire. The report adds that economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated. Moreover, one-year expected business conditions plunged by c. 20%, assessments of personal finances declined 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.
FED’S DALY (2027 voter) said if the Iran conflict resolves quickly and oil prices come back down, then a rate cut is ‘not out of the question’. However, if inflation stays elevated for longer than anticipated, we would hold steady until we know we are getting the inflation job done. She also notes that persistently high oil prices would hurt growth, and they’re already forecasting higher prices show through to the economy, with people pulling back on travel because they are worried about higher costs. Daly puts a lower probability on a rate hike than on a cut or holding steady with current policy, restrictive enough to put downward pressure on inflation; balanced enough to support a steady labour market. Policy in a good place gives the US more time to see how the conflict is resolved and what happens to oil prices. The San Francisco Fed President describes US economic fundamentals as ‘solid, and the labour market as in a steadier place. Risks to the Fed’s goals of full employment and inflation are balanced.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 4+ TICKS LOWER 111-03
Yields rise across the curve despite soft core CPI as geopolitics continues to dominate. At settlement, 2-year +2.2bps at 3.801%, 3-year +2.5bps at 3.821%, 5-year +3.4bps at 3.938%, 7-year +3.1bps at 4.120%, 10-year +3.0bps at 4.313%, 20-year +2.9bps at 4.900%, 30-year +2.3bps at 4.911%.
THE DAY: T-notes saw marginal pressure overnight, paring some of the move seen on Thursday after Israeli PM Netanyahu reached out to Lebanon for peace talks. T-notes started to rise ahead of the US CPI print, before a knee-jerk reaction took T-notes to session highs after a soft Core CPI print.
The headline CPI jumped to 0.9% in line with expectations, while the Y/Y rose to 3.3%, also in line with forecasts, with the upside driven by the surge in energy prices since the US/Iran war. The core metrics (ex-food and energy), however, were on the softer side. The M/M rose 0.2% (exp. 0.3%), matching the prior month pace, while the Y/Y of 2.6% rose from the prior 2.5%, but was softer than the 2.7% forecast. Elsewhere, UoM Consumer Sentiment tumbled in March with expectations and conditions both declining, while consumer inflation expectations rose: 1-year to 4.8% from 3.8%, and the 5-year to 3.4% from 3.2%.
The upside in T-notes on the soft core metrics quickly faded with higher oil prices keeping inflation fears high despite the lower core metrics. We also head into a key weekend of the conflict, with the US and Iran set for in-person negotiations on Saturday. Reports suggest the Iranian delegation has arrived, but others suggest that talks will not take place until the bombs stop in Lebanon from Israel. President Trump also upped the ante again ahead of talks, he told the NY Post that warships are being reloaded to resume strikes on Iran if peace talks fail.
The uncertainty about whether the talks can go ahead this weekend and threats from US President Trump resulted in yields moving higher, while oil prices rose. There could also have been an unwind of some of the improved risk sentiment seen this week since the ceasefire deal on Tuesday, as we head into the weekend.
SUPPLY
Bills
- US to sell USD 77bln of 26-week bills and USD 89bln of 13-week bills on April 13th, to sell USD 70bln of 6-wk bills and USD 50bln of 52-week bills on April 14th; all to settle on April 16th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Money Market Pricing (D/D): April +1.8bps (prev. +1.8bps), June +1.8bps (prev. +0.6bps), July +0.8bps (prev. -0.7bps), Dec -5.3bps (prev. -8.7bps)
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.51bln (prev. 0.40bln) across 5 counterparties (prev. 4) on April 10th
- SOFR at 3.57% (prev. 3.59%), volumes at USD 3.147tln (prev. USD 3.169tln) on April 9th
- EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 105bln (prev. USD 106bln) on April 9th
CRUDE
WTI (M6) SETTLED USD 0.35 LOWER AT 89.58/BBL; BRENT (M6) SETTLED USD 0.72 LOWER AT USD 95.20/BBL
The crude complex closed in the red as it sold off into settlement, as Middle East headlines once again dominated the tape. Ahead of the weekend, focus resides on Iran/US talks on Saturday, albeit the sides clearly seem apart on their objectives heading into the discussions. Highlighting this, WSJ’s Norman said there is no way Iran and the US are going to resolve the issues around Hormuz, nuclear, missiles, etc., in the next 2 weeks, but it doesn’t need to happen; what needs to happen is enough to trigger a mutually agreed extension of talks. Meanwhile, reports suggested that Trump appears in recent conversations with advisers to have conceded that the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to completely reopen soon, while Trump told The Post on Friday that US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” to resume strikes on Iran if peace talks in Pakistan fail. From the Iranian side, they will reportedly engage in talks despite Lebanon issues, although Ghalibaf did note two of the mutually agreed measures have yet to be implemented; they must be fulfilled before negotiations begin. Prior to all this, benchmarks saw pressure in the EZ morning amid reports that Ukrainian President Zelensky’s top aide/negotiator Budanov reportedly sees Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin; note, the interview was conducted on April 4th and in the few minutes after the report, Zelensky suggested Putin is not genuinely seeking peace. For the record, WTI traded between USD 89.00-91.80/bbl and Brent USD 94.21-98.26/bbl, ahead of the aforementioned weekend talks.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.11% at 6,817, NDX +0.14% at 25,116, DJI -0.56% at 47,917, RUT -0.22% at 2,631
SECTORS: Consumer Staples -1.43%, Health -1.33%, Financials -1.06%, Energy -0.80%, Utilities -0.44%, Industrials -0.43%, Communication Services -0.28%, Real Estate +0.17%, Consumer Discretionary +0.55%, Materials +0.64%, Technology +0.76%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.39% at 5,919, Dax 40 +0.20% at 23,855, FTSE 100 -0.03% at 10,601, CAC 40 +0.17% at 8,260, FTSE MIB +0.59% at 47,609, IBEX 35 +0.55% at 18,204, PSI -0.28% at 9,458, SMI +0.23% at 13,189, AEX +0.51% at 1,010.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Apple (AAPL): Led global smartphone shipments in Q1, +5% Y/Y, even as overall shipments fell due to a shortage of memory components
- Meta (META): Upgraded at CFRA
- Nike (NKE): Downgraded at Piper Sandler to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’
- Lumentum (LITE): Demand from US hyperscalers for its optical components is accelerating & on track to fill its order books through ‘28
- ServiceNow (NOW): Downgraded at UBS to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’.
- Citi “turning more selective” in the application software group w/ 6 downgrades; Similarweb (SMWB), DocuSign (DOCU), Veeva (VEEV), (NICE), Autodesk (ADSK), CC Intelligent Solutions (CCC).
- Mizuho reiterated ‘Outperform’ rating on memory, storage group & raised PT on some names incl. Sandisk (SNDK) & Western Digital (WDC).
- VantageScore announced a significant new release for VantageScore RiskRatio, the credit risk analytics tool designed to help mortgage, auto lenders and ABS investors benchmark, compare and act on consumer credit default risk; Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) was hit on the news.
- US President Trump posts on Truth “Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has proven to have great war fighting capabilities and equipment. Just ask our enemies.”
- Commvault Systems (CVLT) reportedly exploring sale after it received takeover interest, according to Reuters citing sources.
FX
DXY finished lower each day this week, down to around 96.65 from Monday’s open of 100.18. A US-Iran ceasefire and talks set for Saturday support optimism for a path to a long-term resolution, although the sides do currently seem apart. Weighing on the USD in the EU morning was a Bloomberg report that Ukrainian President Zelensky’s top aide/negotiator Budanov, reportedly, sees Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin, sparking upside in EUR and pressure in energy benchmarks. Albeit, the report came shortly after remarks from Ukrainian President Zelensky, suggesting Russian President Putin is not genuinely seeking peace. Outside of geopolitics today, updates had little bearing on USD price action. CPI for March was mixed. Headline on both gauges met expectations to accelerate from February, given the surge in energy prices amid the Middle-East conflict. Meanwhile, the Core fell slightly shy of expectations. Later, UoM disappointed with sentiment fell to a historic low in April as higher energy prices dampened already declining sentiment.
G10FX price action was mixed. GBP, EUR, and CHF strengthened against the greenback, while CAD, NZD, AND JPY weakened, and the AUD finished flat. The main update was for the CAD, namely, the Canadian economy adding 14.1k jobs in March, less than the expected 15k. The unemployment rate unexpectedly held firm at 6.7% (exp. 6.8%). USD/CAD showed little reaction to the data.
USD/KRW traded lower to end Friday, following an earlier BoK decision to hold rates at 2.25% as expected. The Central Bank say its necessary to remain cautious about FX volatility.
USA DATA RELEASES
this is quite a surprise as higher energy prices should have causes the CPI ro rise quite a bit: headline CP:I up a strong 0.9%month/month.
(zerohedge)
Core CPI Prints Cooler Than Expected Despite Biggest Jump In Energy Prices Since 2005
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 08:41 AM
While PCE showed some signs of higher energy prices leaking into inflation prints, it was still February data. As we previewed, today’s CPI data is for March and will bear the full brunt of the Iran War’s impact on energy costs after Core CPI fell to its lowest in four years in February.
The headline CPI soared 0.9% MoM (as expected) and while it was a big MoM jump, Consumer Prices rose 3.3% YoY (up from +2.4% YoY in February), but below the 3.4% YoY exp…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the highest headline CPI YoY since April 2024 and biggest MoM jump since June 2022.
Obviously, Energy dominated the rise in headline CPI…
That was Gasoline’s biggest rise on record since 1967 – accounting for two-thirds of the rise in headline CPI…
Core CPI (excluding Energy and Food prices) printed cooler than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp) with the Core YoY rising only modestly from February…
Source: Bloomberg
Core Services costs slowed modestly…
Source: Bloomberg
Obviously, short-term (annualized) CPI is exploding higher…
SuperCore CPI (Services ex-Shelter) lifted very modestly on a YoY basis with Transportation Services the biggest driver…
Source: Bloomberg
Nothing too surprising here for policymakers to fret over and rate-cut odds are modestly higher since the print.
The market seems willing right now to look through the spike – let’s just hope the ’70s analog is not about to play out.
END
UMich Sentiment Crashes To Lowest On Record As War Sparks Inflation Panic Among Democrats
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 10:12 AM
While the March UMich sentiment survey was completed before and after the start of the Iran War (with only modest impacts on sentiment and inflation expectations), today’s preliminary April data survey period was all in the war with expectations for a notable drop in sentiment and sizable jump in inflation expectations.
It turns out the expectations were right in direction but underestimated the scale as headline sentiment plunged from 53.3 to 47.6 (far worse than the 51.5 exp) with Current Conditions (50.1 vs 53.4 exp vs 55.8 prior) and Expectations (46.1 vs 50.2 exp vs 51.7 prior)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is a record low for the headline sentiment and Current Conditions and lowest print for Expectations since 1980.
Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall.
One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April.
Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.
Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025, but longer-term expectations rose only modestly…
Of course, it’s Democrats that are ‘panicans’ once again at inflation (Dems +4.8%, Reps +1.0%)…
One thing of note in that chart – how is the overall inflation expectation screaming higher (to equal Democrats’ view) with the actual breakdown by political cohort showing no huge rise?
Finally, on the potential bright side, UMich Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu notes that “98% of interviews were completed prior to the April 7th announcement of a temporary cease-fire. Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated.“
USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Not Just ‘Death To America’, It’s ‘Death To Everyone’ When Fertilizer Supply Shock Hits
Friday, Apr 10, 2026 – 09:00 AM
Santiago Capital’s Brent Johnson, known for his dollar milkshake theory, had an ominous warning at last evening’s ZH debate: Even if the war is settled (and there’s no guarantee of that), baked in supply shocks could be very bad for agriculture. This comes as just yesterday, Mises Institute’s Connor O’Keefe warned of “a time bomb in global food markets”.
… and Brent is the dollar bull.
Johnson joined Marc “Dr. Doom” Faber and Thoughtful Money’s Adam Taggart to debate what comes after the tenuous ceasefire that Trump has brokered with Iran. Major win for the U.S. and the dollar or simply relative mitigation of a pointless blunder?
Below were key points by Dr. Doom and the Milkshake man, though we highly recommend the full discussion for those with time:
Inflation for thee but not for me
Marc Faber’s argument centered on a disconnect between official inflation data and lived experience… something the war, even if concluded promptly, will only exacerbate. While the legendary “shadowstats” is no longer updated, it last had May ‘23 real inflation at 8% annually, double the government’s reported figure of 4%.
Faber rejects low headline figures:
“I don’t believe that anywhere in the world the rate of inflation was like around 2% (pre-war). This is complete nonsense. Open the invoices of your insurance company! Insurance premiums are going up by something like 10%… everywhere the prices are up.”
Average households cannot sustain such strain for long. In Faber’s view, a large share of the population is financially stretched: “around 70% of Americans… live paycheck to paycheck.” Income barely covers expenses, leaving little margin for shocks. “This is sort of like a modern slavery… people are… anxiously waiting for the salaries to pay their debts.”
Faber’s slavery analogy extends to the K-shaped economy, where wealthy asset owners see massive booms in their on-paper wealth while Joe six-pack (with no assets) just sees his gas and groceries go up:
“My outlook for the economy was already, before the war in Iran, was not favorable… the financial markets have gone into the sky and the real economy of people is flat on its back.”
Fertilizer > Oil
Brent Johnson framed the debate around power as opposed to market forces: “If the United States is going to lose dominance, somebody else has to take it.” He pointed to the U.S.-Israeli assassination of Iran’s head of state and the lack of global pushback as evidence that U.S. global influence remains intact for now.
“Nobody has done anything to stop it.”
He does not claim the month-long U.S. operation will be a success. “That could very well be a huge miscalculation… [but] it might work.” Outcomes are not predetermined, and states still use force to pursue objectives, “countries do use military force to get what they want… I understand why they did it… and how it could possibly work.”
Largely a dollar bull, Johnson still sees pain on the horizon for all fiat holders. ”We are going to get at least a short-term inflationary impulse… a pretty severe [one]… it may hit the United States the least… it’s going to hurt the rest of the world more.”
“We’re just now going to be in the summer driving season here pretty soon and gasoline and energy prices are already up… that could dramatically negatively affect the US economy.”
Beyond energy, the underappreciated yet vital product that must flow through the Strait of Hormuz: fertilizers and chemicals.
“The bigger impact that I worry about is the fact that fertilizers and chemicals also get transited through the Strait of Hormuz. And the timing of this happening is impacting the planting season for both the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere and the winter planting season in the Southern Hemisphere. It’s my expectation that even if the strait fully opens tomorrow, which it won’t… There’s going to be a four to six week period where most ships don’t arrive…”
The result: civil unrest.
“That is going to have a material impact on food prices. Six to nine months down the road. Once you get food price rises and food shocks, then you get social shocks. Then you get people out in the streets chanting ‘death to everyone’ not just ‘death to America’.”
Listen to their full remarks and learn which cigarettes Dr. Doom smokes in the full debate below. Watch on the ZeroHedge X feed, Taggart’s Thoughtful Money YouTube channel, or listen on the ZH Spotify.
MASSACHUSETTS
Massachusetts Governor Uses Donut Holes To Explain The State Energy Crisis She Caused
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 05:20 PM
The Democrat tendency to talk down to their constituencies as if they are children has become a mainstay of American political discourse in the past several years. This behavior is rooted in a simmering arrogance among the political class, but it also tends to expose their lack of understanding when it comes to some of the more basic economic and industrial concepts.
In other words, Democrats treat people as if people are dumb because they are, in fact, dumb.
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Maura Healey, the Governor of Massachusetts, has been in office since 2023. A Democrat, she boasts of being the first woman and first “openly LGBT” person elected to the position. Her administration’s focus is dedicated to climate change issues, which plays a large part in the reasons why MA is currently facing record high power prices and an overall energy crisis.
As Attorney General and Governor, Healey has pursued a lawsuit against Exxon for “not disclosing” climate risks caused by their products to investors and consumers through marketing campaigns. Of course, there are no “climate risks” caused by Exxon’s products. Why would they disclose a risk that doesn’t exist?
In November 2024, Healey signed “Clean Energy” legislation which includes reforms to prevent natural gas expansion by limiting gas utility investments that conflict with climate change mandates. This disrupts the creation of new fossil fuel infrastructure in an attempt to “phase down” public reliance on gas and redirect focus toward green energy. Critics argue that these policies hinder gas reliability and raise long-term costs for citizens of MA.
Since Healey took office, gas heating prices in MA have risen by 35%-50% and electricity prices are listed among top five most expensive states in the US. Massachusetts already had high energy rates before Healey, but they surged after her climate change policies were implemented.
Green energy, as everyone knows, is far less efficient than oil, gas or coal (20% to 60% less efficient depending on the source). State programs that prioritize green tech while suppressing carbon based energy usually result in higher prices for everyone while also creating a bottleneck and shortages during weather related disasters or global supply chain disruptions.
When Healey holds up donut holes as a representation of Massachusetts’ limited energy resources, what she doesn’t mention is that, unlike donut holes, not all energy sources are the same. Wind power or solar power is far less reliable and efficient compared to natural gas. Electric vehicles often still rely on power generated by coal and natural gas. Around 75% of MA’s energy output comes from natural gas because it is by far the most reliable and affordable source.
Healey’s solution for storage (green tech, batteries, etc.) is far less practical and far more expensive. Natural gas storage is vastly superior in terms of cost and energy output. Massachusetts doesn’t have below ground storage for gas, but relying on storage in other states is still cheaper than the billions of dollars they would need to build battery-based storage in MA.
The Governor then, of course, goes on to blame Donald Trump’s opposition to green tech development as the cause of higher prices. Keep in mind, prices exploded in MA well before Trump took office in 2025. Furthermore, Trump’s criticisms are completely reasonable.
First, climate change theories are a sham. There is no concrete evidence of a causation relationship between carbon, human industry and global warming. None. In fact, the atmospheric carbon record for the past 400 million years doesn’t match the temperature record in the slightest.
And, temperatures today are far cooler than they have been in the past. That is to say, we are nowhere near record high temperatures for the Earth. Climate scientists make these claims based on records that only go back around 140 years, which is an extremely narrow time window.
Meaning, the pursuit of green tech in the name of saving the planet is pointless, and it’s causing economic suffering for the citizenry. Green energy might one day be efficient enough to supply ample power to the world, but for now it has hobbled legitimate energy production. Today, most financial resources should be put into oil, coal, gas and perhaps nuclear (nuclear plants take 6-10 years to build, plus another 5 years for approval).
Climate obsessed Democrats like Healey are the primary cause of high energy prices in blue states. It is undeniable.
END
MINNESOTA
Minnesota Whistleblower Alleges Years Of ‘Reckless Disregard’ At Fraud-Plagued Agency
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Seven years after Faye Bernstein first blew the whistle on waste, fraud, and abuse concerns, “nothing is changing” at the Minnesota Department of Human Services, she told lawmakers during an April 7 hearing at the state Capitol in St. Paul.
As a 20-year employee who still works for the department while facing alleged demotion and retaliation over her complaints, “I still see a reckless disregard for compliance,” she told the state’s Fraud Prevention and State Agency Oversight Policy Committee.
Bernstein, a former compliance officer at the agency that faces heightened national scrutiny over massive fraud scandals, gave an example supporting her opinion. She said she learned that, about a year ago, “someone had falsified the audit tracker,” an important internal record that helps workers ensure they remedy problems identified in audits.
“When I heard that, I thought, ‘My gosh, somebody’s getting fired for that!’” Bernstein said; instead, managers excused the falsification, indicating “that person had simply made a mistake, that maybe she didn’t understand instructions,” she said.
“The lackadaisical attitude we have about even keeping track of our findings will partially explain” why some of those same findings recurred in an audit released in January, she said. The audit noted some of the same issues that Bernstein reported in 2019.
After Bernstein’s testimony, the agency’s commissioner, Shireen Gandhi, testified. She pledged to “build a culture of compliance,” and to ensure that all staff members understand their roles and “have the knowledge, skills, and authority to fulfill those responsibilities.”
State Rep. Isaac Schultz, a Republican who serves on the anti-fraud committee, told Gandhi: “I hope that more people [like Bernstein] continue to shine light on what’s going on inside of your department, because I have a really hard time trusting what leadership is saying to us.”
Another committee member, Democratic state Rep. Steve Elkins, gave Gandhi credit for owning up to problems that the audit revealed.
Having been elected in 2018, Elkins has read quite a few audits. Each one includes a response from the agency that was audited. Typically, “that letter is deflecting, denying, minimizing,” he said.
“This is the first time … where the head of the agency stepped up and said almost everything in the report was accurate, and this is what we’re going to do about it, and this is when we’re going to have it done, and this is the person who’s responsible for getting it done,” Elkins said. “And I think that that’s a remarkable turnaround.”
Lawmaker Urges: ‘Draw a Line in the Sand’
Minnesota’s government-program fraud dating to 2018 could reach $9 billion or more, prosecutors have said. Fraud concerns have expanded nationwide; the national leader may turn out to be California, where scammers may have bilked taxpayers out of “hundreds of billions” of dollars, a federal prosecutor said.
Many of Minnesota’s still-emerging fraud scandals involve programs that are now under Gandhi’s purview. She has worked for the agency since 2017 and has headed it since last year; Gov. Tim Walz made her temporary appointment permanent earlier this year.
State Rep. Kristin Robbins, a Republican who chairs the fraud-prevention committee, told Gandhi: “The most important thing is to make sure we’re being good stewards of taxpayer money.”
“As Ms. Bernstein said, we’ve been talking about this for years … so we have to draw a line in the sand and say: ‘We are not going to allow this to continue anymore,’” Robbins said.
Robbins and other committee members repeatedly asked Gandhi about holding people accountable when procedures aren’t followed or when records are falsified; the latest audit revealed that employees created new records—and backdated them—in the midst of the auditors’ probe.
“I was shocked to hear this information,” Gandhi told the committee, calling any such fabrications “absolutely unacceptable.” However, Gandhi said state law prohibits her from revealing details of the internal investigation into the falsified records.
When Robbins inquired further, Gandhi said information was presented to state authorities for possible criminal charges. The agency is also putting together internal processes “for preventing and catching this sort of issue going forward,” Gandhi said.
No-Bid Contracts Awarded, Procedures Not Followed
In mid-2025, lawmakers approved a two-year budget of $17 billion for Gandhi’s agency, accounting for 40 percent of the state’s total budget, state legislative records show.
One branch of the department, the Behavioral Health Administration, distributed more than $2 billion in grants from July 2022 to December 2024. The money goes to businesses and organizations that provide mental-health or substance-abuse services.
However, during that 29-month span, the state agency “did not comply with most requirements we tested,” Valentina Stone, an audit director for the Office of Legislative Auditor, testified to the fraud committee.
Auditors found 13 problems that need to be fixed to safeguard taxpayers’ money, including four recurrent issues, Stone said.
During the study period, the agency handled 830 unique grant agreements. Auditors combed several batches of those grants, looking for compliance with different “internal controls”—rules and procedures to ensure proper use and tracking of money.
Among 24 grants examined for compliance with competitive-bidding rules, auditors found the agency had inappropriately awarded more than half of them. The agency doled out five grants totaling $4.7 million without seeking competitive bids first or giving a reason for skipping that process.
Other tests revealed more internal-controls violations. The agency paid grantees even before grant agreements were signed, failed to visit providers to ensure they were complying with agreements to render services, and awarded new grants to past providers without reviewing how those providers performed.
“It concerns me greatly … that money is still going out the door in real time to some of these same grantees when these processes haven’t been tightened up,” Robbins said.
In March, a separate audit of Human Services’ fraud-ridden autism-treatment reimbursement program found that the agency mistakenly believed that it lacked authority to probe allegations of kickbacks without evidence of another alleged offense. The problem appears to have stemmed from a decades-old definition of “fraud” that failed to explicitly list kickbacks, which are illegal payments to people who cooperate with scammers.
END
MARYLAND
War On The Shore: Maryland Dem Officials Freak Out At Journalists Ahead Of Exposé On Governor
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 08:30 PM
The Democratic kings and queens in the one-party–ruled state of Maryland are absolutely panicking, something that should not be happening in a deep-blue state, as their crown jewel, left-wing Gov. Wes Moore, a prospective Democratic presidential candidate, has seen polling data implode. High taxes, surging power bills, a state budget crisis, poor leadership, and even questions about honesty have sparked voter backlash on both sides of the political aisle.
In the battle for narrative control, Moore’s office and the Democratic Party’s propaganda machine have launched a preemptive campaign against The Baltimore Sun’s forthcoming investigative series, which is expected to release an exposé on Moore.
“The Baltimore Sun used to be our paper of record,” Moore recently told MS NOW host Jen Psaki, a former White House press secretary who made a career at covering up Biden’s mental decline. “It’s now become the paper of the right wing.”
Democrats have been upset that, in deep-blue Baltimore and across the state, right-leaning Sinclair executive chairman David Smith now owns the paper. As a result, The Sun has shifted from promoting left-wing conspiracies and all things DEI to more balanced, center-right content.
The loss of narrative power at The Sun is what truly irritates Democratic leadership in the state, as their inability to control the narrative has caused Moore’s polling numbers to drop significantly.
“Democrats sure are putting in a lot of work to discredit a series before it’s even started running. That alone should raise a question: why?” Candy Woodall, former national political reporter at USA Today, now managing editor of Spotlight on Maryland, a local investigative reporting collaboration of WBFF45 (owned by Sinclair), wrote on X.
Woodall Continued:
In January, I was warned directly that if Spotlight continued its investigation into Gov. Wes Moore’s military records—and one of his superiors—that his office would send files to every media reporter to try and discredit us.
We saw the same playbook in 2022 when a FOX45 reporter asked why Moore allowed claims that he had received a Bronze Star that he didn’t have at the time. His team accused the reporter and media outlet of bias and a smear campaign. Two years later, after the New York Times wrote about the Bronze Star Moore hadn’t received, the narrative changed, and the governor said it was “an honest mistake.” In an August 2024 statement on his military record, Moore acknowledged he knew before leaving Afghanistan that he had not received the award.
Spotlight’s reporting digs deeper into Moore’s military records and more, and our investigative series will begin to publish soon. This is standard journalism to scrutinize the words and records of elected officials and candidates who hold positions of power and public trust. Our loyalty is to the Maryland public we serve — not any public official or political party.
Our work has been fair. We’ve sent hundreds of questions. Most have gone unanswered. We’ve offered multiple sit-down interviews with the governor and his staff. They have declined repeated requests.
Moore’s office hasn’t seen a word of this series yet, but the governor and his communications staff are actively campaigning and peddling a narrative to smear it. In fact, his director of media strategy said this week of us, “They don’t deserve to be treated like a news outlet and nothing that comes out of Sinclair should be taken seriously.” They continued this effort last night in an interview on MSNOW with Jen Psaki, Biden’s former press secretary.
The real questions you should be asking right now: Why don’t they want you to read the series? What is it they don’t want you to know? And if we’re so wrong about everything, why not just release the records and prove it?
If you want to know more, keep reading The Baltimore Sun, a 200-year-old newspaper that has survived many governors.
Democrats sure are putting in a lot of work to discredit a series before it’s even started running. That alone should raise a question: why?
In January, I was warned directly that if Spotlight continued its investigation into Gov. Wes Moore’s military records—and one of his… https://t.co/5e0TF84YIa— Candy Woodall (@candynotcandace) April 8, 2026
After The New York Times reported in 2024 that Moore had falsely claimed to have received a Bronze Star for his service in Afghanistan, a controversy over his military record intensified. Spotlight on Maryland later picked up the investigative baton at the local level.
Moore’s team responded aggressively on X, in what appeared to be a bid to discredit the reporters – even dismissing one Fox Baltimore reporter as “not a journalist.”
You’re not a journalist.
You’re a former Republican party official working at the direction of your Trump supporting boss. https://t.co/CLzLzHHsb3— Ammar Moussa (@ammarmufasa) April 8, 2026
Democrats have reason to worry about any major forthcoming exposé on Moore. His Polymarket odds of becoming the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee currently sit at just 1%.https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=will-wes-moore-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-714&creator=Alastair&height=300Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 1% · No 99%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
The real issue for Democrats is that Smith of Sinclair is single-handedly chipping away at their core abilities to run counter-narratives, which has eroded Moore’s odds of leapfrogging from the financially troubled state to the White House.
In recent weeks, Moore was greeted by a stadium full of boos during Orioles Opening Day in Baltimore City, a major stronghold for progressives. This should never be happening to a left-wing governor in the state.
Gov. Wes Moore was booed by the crowd ahead of the Orioles home opener on Thursday. https://t.co/KdJaF2jx68 pic.twitter.com/pA0p6G2z8m— FOX Baltimore (@FOXBaltimore) March 26, 2026
But it is his sheer incompetence in serving as proper stewards of the state and prioritizing DEI, woke, illegal aliens, over Marylanders that has sparked voter backlash. Stuff like this:
Maryland Delegate Kathy Szeliga (R) EMBARESSES Democrats who want to force “appropriately sized tampons” into men’s bathrooms.
Szeliga: “I’ve never heard of such a thing… what do you consider appropriate???”pic.twitter.com/jjasHIMtRE https://t.co/gsjXEzXVre— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 24, 2026
Moore smiling with far-left radical Alex Soros.
Only a matter of time before the Moore team taps the Soros nonprofit team for help. Unless they already have…
END
USPS
they have a huge shortfall position with respect to financing. They are basically bust
(zerohedge)
USPS Pauses Pension Contributions Amid Looming Cash Shortfall
Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 – 07:15 PM
Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,
The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) has temporarily suspended its employer contributions to a government-wide pension plan after warning Congress that, without changes, it could run out of cash within the next year.
On Thursday, USPS told the Office of Personnel Management—the federal government’s human resource division—that it would pause its biweekly employer contributions to the Federal Employees Retirement System, or FERS.
The move is expected to conserve about $2.5 billion through Sept. 30, the end of the current fiscal year, according to USPS. The mail agency typically pays about $200 million every other week into the plan.
USPS Chief Financial Officer Luke Grossmann said the temporary withholding would have no “immediate detrimental impact” on current or future retirees. He said the agency would continue forwarding employees’ own FERS contributions, as well as all regularly scheduled payments to the Thrift Savings Plan, another retirement program for federal workers.
“The risk to the Postal Service and the American public from insufficient liquidity for postal operations dramatically outweighs any longer-term risk to the pension funds from not making the currently due payments,” Grossmann said.
Although USPS is generally required by law to make the payments, the Postal Regulatory Commission granted the agency a waiver that gives it flexibility to catch up later.
The cash-saving measure comes as postal officials warn Congress of the agency’s deteriorating finances. At a March 17 hearing, Postmaster General David Steiner told the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee that USPS could become unable to continue delivering mail by February 2027 if it keeps paying all of its bills on time under the current structure.
“Less than a year from now, the Postal Service will be unable to deliver the mail if we maintain the status quo,” he said in his testimony.
According to Steiner, USPS has already had to rely on extraordinary cash-conservation measures, and he warned that lawmakers might have to consider steps such as reducing delivery frequency from six days a week to five or fewer. He also floated the idea of hiking first-class stamp prices to as high as 95 cents.
“At 78 cents, the U.S. First-Class Stamp is the lowest-priced in the industrialized world,” Steiner told lawmakers at the hearing.
“If we were to change the stamp price to 90 to 95 cents, which is still less than half of the cost of most foreign posts, that would largely solve our controllable loss.”
USPS has struggled financially for years as first-class mail volumes continue to decline and operating costs rise. According to a report published in March by U.S. Government Accountability Office, it has lost money every fiscal year but one since 2007, accumulating a staggering $118 billion in net losses over that time.
The agency has also turned to temporary price hikes to help cover operation costs. The Postal Regulatory Commission has approved an 8 percent temporary increase on priority mail and package prices beginning April 26 and lasting through Jan. 17, 2027.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report April 10, 2026 Issue 7718 | Independent View of the News |
| INSS’s @citrinowicz: The military campaign has not brought about a substantive change in Iran’s fundamental positions regarding negotiations (with US)… Thus, and in light of the sense of achievement in the campaign, it is doubtful whether Iran will be willing to make substantive concessions regarding the development of its conventional military power or its support for its regional proxies. Tehran may demonstrate limited flexibility on the issue of enriched material, with an emphasis on diluting the material in Iran, provided that this is tied to compensation in the form of broad sanctions relief alongside recognition of Iran’s right to enrichment… In light of the Iranian position, the American administration faces a strategic decision: whether to adopt an arrangement similar in essence to the one that was attainable prior to the escalation, or to risk renewed deterioration into escalation and even broader confrontation. Meanwhile, Iran is highly concerned about what is happening in Lebanon. Iran views its commitment to the “axis of resistance” as a foundational component of its security concept, ensuring strategic depth. Accordingly, it is currently operating on a dual-track approach: on the one hand, it insists on integrating Hezbollah into the framework of any ceasefire arrangement; on the other hand, it continues to take measured offensive steps, designed to preserve leverage, primarily through regulating traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—a move intended to illustrate the global consequences of diplomatic failure, alongside threats of a possible return to fighting. In the bottom line, Tehran arrives at the negotiating table in Islamabad with the perception that its hand is on top in the military campaign, and therefore if the expectation in the administration is for dramatic concessions on its part, the talks may be shorter than expected. Trump: All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before. It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE. In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. Reuters: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has briefed some capitals that U.S. President Donald Trump wants concrete commitments within the next few days for help securing the Strait of Hormuz, two European diplomats told Reuters on Thursday… Trump Warns NATO to Clean Up His Mess in Iran War (The German view) German news magazine Der Spiegel reported that Trump is expecting NATO members to help reopen the strait, which Iran closed in retaliation for the war Trump started without speaking to any of those NATO members. He’s also threatening to pull U.S. military support from any countries that don’t help reopen the strait… “None of these people, including our own, very disappointing, NATO, understood anything unless they have pressure placed upon them!!!” Trump posted on Truth Social early Thursday morning, hours after his meeting with Rutte… https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-threatens-nato-clean-mess-141938227.html The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s life preserver and major bargaining chip. If Team Trump did NOT account for this reality, they were grossly incompetent. However, some pundits believe, or hope, that Team Trump intended from the start to use the Strait of Hormuz to get Europe involved. If they refused, NATO’s uselessness would be revealed to Americans and Trump would extract the US from NATO. German Chancellor Merz on Thursday: “We do not want a division of NATO.” @MOSSADil: Rumor: Israel tracked Hezbollah via Zoom before massive strike Rumors circulating on pro-Hezbollah forums claim Israel tracked IP addresses during a Zoom meeting to geolocate dozens of Hezbollah officials — but there is no confirmation from the IDF or any credible sources, and the claim remains unverified. What is confirmed is the scale and precision of the strike itself. Around 100 targets across Beirut’s southern suburbs, the Beqaa Valley, and southern Lebanon were hit within roughly ten minutes. The IDF said the targets included command centers, missile infrastructure, Radwan Force assets, and drone units, indicating a highly coordinated, intelligence-driven operation. Axios’ @BarakRavid: Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: In light of the repeated and ongoing appeals from Lebanon to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the cabinet yesterday to open direct negotiations with Lebanon at the earliest possible time. The negotiations will focus on the disarmament of Hezbollah from its weapons and the regulation of peace relations between Israel and Lebanon. Israel appreciates the call today by the Prime Minister of Lebanon to demilitarize Beirut. Netanyahu’s statement comes after phone calls he held yesterday with President Trump and White House envoy Witkoff. Senior U.S. officials said Witkoff asked Netanyahu to “calm down” the strikes in Lebanon and open negotiations. US stocks traded moderately lower early, but rallied into positive territory on the Israel-Lebanon talks report. Oil and gasoline, which were up sharply prior to the reports, sank. May WTI Oil rescinded ~50% of its 8.8% rally. May Gasoline lost its entire 3.6% rally and sank to -1.2% at 1:35 ET. It closed +0.8%. ESMs opened modestly lower on Wednesday night and eased down to a daily low of 6892.50 (-31.25) at 4:12 ET. ESMs then steadily trekked high until they surged on the Israel-Lebanon talks report. ESMs hit a daily high of 6872.00 (+48.25) at 12:01 ET. After a retreat to 6853.50 at 12:47 ET, ESMs ambled to a new high of 6874.75 (+51.00) at 13:19 ET. ESMs then rolled over on this: The Islamic Republic rules out negotiations with the US and keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed until a full ceasefire is established in Lebanon – Fars News Agency, citing an informed source. Iran’s supreme leader says Iran will seek retribution for attacks on it, will take management of Strait of Hormuz into a new phase: Reuters Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: Iran is resolute in taking revenge for its late supreme leader and its martyrs But traders are unremittently bullish and have been ignoring negative news. So, ESMs inched to another new high (6876.00, +52.25) at 13:40 ET. Astute traders recognized that a 1-2-3 Top (3 consecutive minor new highs) had formed. ESMs fell to 6848.00 at 14:33 ET. But have we mentioned that most traders are unremittently bullish? ESMs then rallied to 6869.75 at 15:38 ET; they fell to 6856.50 at 16:05 ET. Q4 GDP 0.5%, 0.7% q/q expected; Consumption 1.9%, 2.0% exp; GDP Price Index 3.7%, 3.8% exp; Core PCE Price Index 2.7% as expected Feb Personal Income -0.1% m/m, +0.3%; Spending 0.5%, 0.6% expected, PCE Price Index 0.4% m/m & 2.8% y/y and Core PCE Price Index 0.4% m/m & 3.0% y/y – all as expected. Initial Jobless Claims 219k, 210k exp; Continuing Claims 1.794m, 1.829m expected. WSJ: Justice Department Opens Investigation into NFL – Government officials have raised questions about whether the league is engaging in anticompetitive tactics that harm consumers. The Sports Broadcasting Act grants the league limited antitrust protection to allow the teams to collectively negotiate packages of TV rights. Media companies, regulators and members of Congress have raised concerns in recent months over how difficult it is for consumers to be able to watch their favorite sports games because of rights deals in which leagues offer smaller packages of games to streamers… (The NFL Commish and his coterie have gotten too greedy; see push for 18 games) Positive aspects of previous session Equities rebounded robustly from early losses on Israel-Lebanon talks Oil and gasoline rescinded about 50% of their early sharply gains. Negative aspects of previous session Activity was listless as traders await today’s US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan May WTI Oil hit 102.70 (+8.8%); May Gasoline hit 311.51 (+3.6%) and rallied sharply in the afternoon. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who is lying, Iran or the US? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 6807.17 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 6835.31; 6761.55 Fed Balance Sheet: +$18.527B on T-Bills +$16.12B; Reserves: +$89.539B Trump on Thursday evening: “There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”… The Wall Street Journal, one of the worst and most inaccurate “Editorial Boards” in the World, stated that I “declared premature victory in Iran.” Actually, it is a Victory, and there’s nothing “premature” about it! Because of me, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON and, very quickly, you’ll see Oil start flowing, with or without the help of Iran and, to me, it makes no difference, either way. The Wall Street Journal will, as usual, live to eat their words. They are always quick to criticize, but never to admit when they’re wrong, which is most of the time!… DJT later: “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!” @c14israel: Senior officials in the Trump administration and national security figures in Washington are expressing deep concern over a “strategic deception” on a massive scale by Iran, which is exploiting the ceasefire for an unprecedented military rebuilding. Classified intelligence reports point to an operation to disperse critical nuclear components to isolated mountainous sites, alongside Russian and Chinese technological assistance aimed at rehabilitating defense and cyber arrays. Trump screwed up, ‘like never seen before’ when he prematurely halted the US-IDF attack on Iran in June 2025 – due to his manic desire to garner a Noble Peace Prize. Iran then refortified, procured more advanced weaponry from China and Russia; hid enriched uranium, etc. In recent weeks, Iran has exploited Trump’s endless TACOing with a classic Rope-a-Dopey Don tactic. Iran believes Trump desperately wants to make a deal and DJT will curtail Bibi, again. WSJ: White House Warns Staff Not to Place Bets on Prediction Markets Amid Iran War Well-timed bets about the war in Iran have raised eyebrows and calls from Dems for more regulation (What about the WH Staff and other insiders giving info to friends & relatives?) Today – The US and Iran negotiate in Islamabad. Most traders and operators are very long and expect a deal. If talks break down, look out below! NB: After plunging on the Israel-Lebanon talks news on perceptions that DJT strong armed Bibi, which indicate Trump desperately wants a deal with Iran, oil and gasoline rallied sharply in late trading. Do NOT play unless you must, or carelessly trade Other People’s Money, or Team DJT leaks to you. ESMs are -8.75; NQMs are -34.50; USMs are +3/32; gas & oil are up moderately at 20:07 ET. Expected Economic Data: March CPI 0.9% m/m & 3.4% y/y, Core CPI 0.3% m/m & 2.7% y/y; Feb Factory Orders -0.2% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.4%; Feb Durable Goods -1.4%; April UM Sentiment 51.5, Current Conditions 53.4, Expectations 50.2, 1-yr Inflation 4.2%, 5-10-yr Inflation 3.4%; March Federal Budget -$153.3B S&P Index 50-day MA: 6765; 100-day MA: 6804; 150-day MA: 6767; 200-day MA: 6659 DJIA 50-day MA: 48,021;100-day MA: 48,096; 150-day MA: 47,577; 200-day MA: 46,818 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope S&P 500 Index (6824.66 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6458.06 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6570.17 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6766.00 triggers a sell signal @WallStreetMav: Democrats are in full panic mode as the changes at CBS News and 60 Minutes have become apparent. Under the new ownership of Paramount (and Larry Ellison with his son David), CBS News is now doing real reporting exposing government fraud in California. Now Ellison is also buying CNN along with all of the assets at Warner Brothers Discovery. The far left wing “reporters” are CNN are in a full blown panic that they will no longer be able to promote their radical left agenda. The far left was counting on their Obama allies at Netflix to purchase Warner Bros (and CNN). However, the Ellison family outbid Netflix with $110 billion. Radical left-wing senators like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are trying to claim “national security concerns” to block the merger. In reality, they are terrified at the though of the left losing their control on the media narrative. Political pressure from Somali community hampered Minnesota fraud probes, whistleblower says A key whistleblower in a Minnesota government fraud unit suggests politics may have played a role in undermining investigations into childcare welfare rackets. Although being less than 2% of the total population, the Somali community is a major political force, having helped elect Ilhan Omar to Congress. https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/pressure-somali-community-hampered-minnesota-fraud-probes @bennyjohnson This animal was ‘competent’ enough to vote. He was ‘competent’ enough to get welfare. He was ‘competent’ enough to get public housing. He was ‘competent’ enough to get EBT. He was ‘competent’ enough to get free bus rides. He was ‘competent’ enough to acquire a murder weapon. He was ‘competent’ enough to slice a girl’s throat in an instant. He was ‘competent’ enough to immediately brag about murdering “that white girl.” This animal was ‘competent’ enough to stand trial for 14 (!!!!) previous violent offenses and be set free. But now that he’s facing the death penalty he’s miraculously ‘incompetent’ and cannot be judged… https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/2042234605751738398 @realDonaldTrump: An Illegal Alien Criminal from Haiti, who was released into our Country by the WORST President in History, Crooked Joe Biden, and the Radical Democrats in Congress, just beat an innocent woman to death with a hammer at a gas station in Florida. The video of her brutal slaying is one of the most vicious things you will ever see. This animal was allowed to stay here because the Biden Administration granted him, and all Haitians, “Temporary Protective Status,” a massively abused and fraudulent program which my Administration is working to terminate, but Deranged Liberal District Court Judges are standing in our way. This one killing should be enough for these Radical Judges to STOP impeding my Administration’s Immigration Policies and allow us to END THIS SCAM ONCE AND FOR ALL. To my fellow Republicans, and frankly all Common Sense Americans, NEVER FORGET that Joe Biden and the Democrat Party turned the United States of America into a dumping ground, allowing Tens of MILLIONS of Criminals, Lunatics, and the Mentally Insane from all over the World to pour into our Country, totally unvetted and unchecked through our wide Open Borders. As I’ve said all along, if you import the Third World, you become the Third World, and that is what happened over the four years of Democrat Control. We are rapidly trying to reverse this decline through Deportations, but if the Democrats are ever given another chance at power, they will immediately REOPEN the Border, and allow America to once again be a Safe Haven for Criminals. Please say a prayer for this innocent woman’s family. We will ensure quick and severe JUSTICE is served in this case! I don’t recommend you watch this tape, because it is so terrible, but felt I had an obligation to put it up so that people can see what Democrats are protecting, and wanting to come into our Country, even now, after all we’ve been through. Again, viewer discretion advised — Not for children!… https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116377422440266990 Immigrant set random NYC apartment blaze that killed four in ‘rage’ after getting fired: DA https://trib.al/33sRapa Non-elite Americans must endure an absurd amount of violent crime due to Dems’s need to import and bribe criminal and unsavory voters. When is enough, enough? Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor (2nd dumbest SCOTUS justice) claims colleague Brett Kavanaugh’s prep school upbringing sways his stance on ICE raids https://trib.al/WfxZmu7 Chief Justice Roberts regularly slams people, including Trump, that criticize judges. But now he is mum! BBG: The Pentagon and the Vatican denied allegations of a rift after Pope Leo XIV’s criticism of the Trump administration and a report of a contentious meeting between a papal envoy and a top defense official @CatholicSat: Pope Leo XIV was… late for his audience with the Italian Winter Olympic and Paralympic committees because he was meeting with David Alexrod, Obama’s chief strategist, this morning. @megbasham: If the Pope is not on the… left, why is he meeting with political strategists on the left? Pundits believe Axelrod met with the Pope to set up a meeting with Obama. Social media teems with rumors that Obama and his leftists are very actively running a shadow US government to undermine DJT globally (via consorting with anti-DJT foreign officials) and advance their leftist agenda. Rumors that Teams Obama and Clinton forced out Pope Benedict for leftist (Jesuit) Pope Francis are increasingly looking more reasonable. Benedict was the first Pope in almost 600 years to abdicate. He cited health concerns but lived another 9.8 years! Pope Leo was a protégé on the leftist Pope Francis. WikiLeaks: Clinton, Obama, Soros Overthrew Pope Benedict in Vatican Coup “Podesta, a longtime Clinton adviser/confidante and hand-picked top activist for left-wing funder George Soros, revealed in a 2011 e-mail that he and other activists were working to effect a “Catholic Spring” revolution within the Catholic Church, an obvious reference to the disastrous “Arab Spring” coups organized that same year by the Obama-Clinton-Soros team that destabilized the Middle East and brought radical Islamist regimes and terrorist groups to power in the region. The Podesta e-mail is a response to another Soros-funded radical — Sandy Newman, founder of the “progressive” Voices for Progress. Newman had written to Podesta seeking advice on the best way to “plant the seeds of the revolution” in the Catholic Church, which he described as a “middle ages [sic] dictatorship.”… https://tuzarapost.substack.com/p/wikileaks-clinton-obama-soros-overthrew Obama’s legacy? Good riddance to the most anti-Catholic president in decades https://www.catholic.org/news/politics/story.php?id=72937 | |
SWAMP STORIES
GREG HUNTER….
harveyorganblog.com 
