EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,825.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/14/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 04/16/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 1
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 25
323 C HSBC 47
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 82
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 57
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 10
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 1
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 6
905 C ADM 7
TOTAL: 118 118
MONTH TO DATE:
MONTH TO DATE: 18,042
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2026: 118 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 11,800 OZ or 0.3670TONNES
total notices so far: 18,210 contracts FOR 1,821,000 OZ OR 56.64 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 576 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 2.880 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2233 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 11.165 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 42 CONTRACTS OR 0.210 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 115 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 2.905 MILLION ADDITIONAL OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES HUGELY TO 11.355 MILLION OZ
NOW OUR APRIL 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 16.370 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 8.943 MILLION OZ
- MAY: SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR STRONG 115 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 11,500 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 57.909 TONNES
MARCH:: SMALL INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MARCH AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 46 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 4400 OZ OR 0.2320 TONNESAND THEN WE ADD BY OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 22.3818///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES OF GOLD./
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD; 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 57.552 TONNES.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 4 MONTHS JANUARY TO APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 11,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.3576 TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 57.909 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 41.402 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONG
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE 2945 CONTRACTS
EFP ISSUANCE 510 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 510 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2945 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 510 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3455 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $3.99
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 17.275 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $3.99
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS APRIL 15 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.58 PTS OR 0.01%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 98.18 PTS OR 0.38%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 350.61 PTS OR 0.61%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.39%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN 6.8183
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8162 Oil DOWN TO 90.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 94.68 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8175 (DOWN) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8162 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG 2945 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 362,274 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET LATE LAST WEEK AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING TUESDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE WITH THE BANKERS TAKING THE SHORT SIDE, SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL.
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS APRIL CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD. THE SPECS HAVE NOW GONE MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE AGAIN WITH THE BANKERS BUYING UP ALL THEY COULD AND COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL IN GOLD. THE SHORT SPECS WERE MURDERLIZED WITH THIS WEEK’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE WITH ANNOUNCEMENT OF A CEASEFIRE!.
WE THUS HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 5338 CONTRACTS (OR 16.629 TONNES) WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A SMALL 925 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE..
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A ZERO CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES OF GOLD.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR FAR.
A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO APRIL:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW APRIL COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7,771 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE ($83.55). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH APRIL/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A STRONG SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 2575 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT WAS IN FULL FORCE DURING THIS WEEK WITH MUCH FAILURE DURING LONDON LBMA/OTC OPTION EXPIRY WEEK!! (APRIL FIRST DAY NOTICE)
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
FOR MARCH WE HAVE 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7196 CONTRACTS OR 719,600 OZ/22.3818 TONNES.. AS DELIVERIES OF GOLD THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE BEEN HUGE!!
APRIL: 0 SO FAR HAVE BEEN ISSUED
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
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DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
AND NOW APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 11,500 OZ (0.3576 TONNES) QUEUE JUMP. THUS STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 57.909 TONNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING APRIL,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $83.55)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION // COMEX SESSION// DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI //(OTHER SPECULATORS WENT THIS WEEK ON THE SHORT SIDE AND THEY WERE TORCHERED YESTERDAY!!). OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
TUESDAY NIGHT//WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TO APRIL:
- ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31:
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOW NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND NOW DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977TONNES
4. JANUARY:
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
10. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0298 TONNES TO WHICH THIS IS ADDED TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2082 / NEW QUEUE JUMP ADVANCES TO: 41.233 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO: 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TO WHICH WE THEN ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.3818 TONNES// GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO: 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING: A VERY STRONG 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 11,500 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.3576 TONNES). THUS STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 57.909 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $50.60
WE HAD A HUGE 2473 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 5338 CONTRACTS OR 533,800 OZ OR 16.629TONNES
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
APRIL 15 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 3 3 entries a) Brinks 166,799.388 oz b) HSBC: 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars) c) Manfra 1961.211 oz total withdrawal: 233,062.599 oz in tonnes 7.249 |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 118 CONTRACTS OR 11,800 OZ 0.3670 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 408 Contracts 40800 OZ 1.269 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 18,210 notices 1,821,000 oz 56.64 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 3
3 entries
a) Brinks 166,799.388 oz
b) HSBC: 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars)
c) Manfra 1961.211 oz
total withdrawal: 233,062.599 oz
in tonnes 7.249 tonnes
they are draining the comex of gold
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ADJUSTMENTs
adjustments: / / 4
ADJUSTMENTS ://DEALER TO CUSTOMER
a) Asahi: 29,810.27 ooz
b) Brinks 5001.193 tonnes
c) Loomis: 900.400 oz
d) Manfra: 18,468.346 oz
total oz leaving dealer: 54,180.06 oz or 1.68 tonnes
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL OI STANDS AT 614 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 65 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 50 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED QUEUE JUMP OF 115 CONTRACTS. THUS 11,500 OZ OF ADDITIONAL GOLD WILL STAND ON THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER AND THIS EQUATES TO 0.3476 TONNES.
MAY GAINED 94 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 3084
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 2806 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 266,831
We had 118 contracts filed for today representing 11,800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 10 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 118 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for APRIL. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (18,210) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (XXX CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 116 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,850,300 OZ OR (57.552 Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for APRIL. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (18,210) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL ( 526 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 116 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,861,800 OZ OR (57.909Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in APRIL is 57.909 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL 57.909 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW HUGE FOR THIS NORMALLY VERY ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
confirmed volume TUESDAY confirmed 148,388 poor
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,937,946.398 oz 60.28 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,937,946.398 tonnes oz 60.28 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 30,145,082.749 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,877,974.368 or 493.87 Tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 14,267,108.381 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,940,,028 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
433.59 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
APRIL15
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 entries i) out of Brinks 1,265,938.200 oz ii) Out opf JPMorgan; 1,281,139.800 oz iii) Out of Loomis; 600,512.800 oz total withdrawal: 3,147,590.900 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT zero |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 576 CONTRACT(S) ( 2.880 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 38 Contracts (0.190 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2233 contracts 11.165 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
nil
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
3 entries
i) out of Brinks 1,265,938.200 oz
ii) Out opf JPMorgan; 1,281,139.800 oz
iii) Out of Loomis; 600,512.800 oz
total withdrawal: 3,147,590.900 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments:
one adjustments customer to dealer: Manfra
a) Manfra 74.838.451 oz
MONDAY volume: 75,023 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76.960 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 321.964 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR APRIL
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2026 OI: 614 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 576 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 5 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 581 CONTRACTS OR 2.905 MILLION OZ UNDERWENT A HUGE QUEUE JUMP. STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 11.355 MILLION OZ WHICH IS ESCELLENT FOR THIS NORMALLY SMALL NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 2514 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 50,019 CONTRACTS.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 41 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 666 OI CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 576 or 2.880 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY; 75,023 fair
AND NOW APRIL. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2233 X5,000 oz = 11.165 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (614) AND the number of notices served upon today (576)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL 2026 contract month: (2233 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (614) minus number of notices served upon today (576 )x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the APRIL..contract month equating to 11.355 MILLION OZ.
NEW STANDING: 11.355 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STRONG FOR A GENERALLY LOUSY DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 76.960 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 144.260/321.694million: 44.85%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 1/2026/WITH GOLD UP $134.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.276 TONNES
MAR 31/2026/WITH GOLD UP $119.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.133 TONNES
MAR 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.143 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.562
MAR 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $213.05 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.580 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42
MAR 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $155.30 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.000
MAR 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.286 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $165.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.149 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.991
MAR 20/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $39,55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.855 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.135
MAR 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99
MAR 18/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $111.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.564 TONNES
MAR 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.857 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.708 TONNES
MAR 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4/327 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071/.565 TONNES
MAR 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $61.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.428 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.852 TONNES
MAR 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.715 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077.28 TONNES
MAR 11/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $70.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.858 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.565 TONNES
MAR 10/2026/WITH GOLD UP $137.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.614 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.707 TONNES
MAR 9/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.573 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.321 TONNES
MAR 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $77.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.894 TONNES
MAR 5/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 18.032 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.038 TONNES
MAR 4/2026/WITH GOLD UP $9.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.545 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.07 TONNES
MAR 3/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $188.75 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.36 TONNES
MAR 2/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101,13 TONNES
FEB 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.50 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.90 TONNES
FEB 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1097.62 TONNES
FEB 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $48.40 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.17 TONNES
FEB 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1086.47 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1049.478 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND WITHDRAWAL OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.079 MILLION OZ
MAR 31 WITH SILVER UP $4.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.532 MILLION OZ
MAR 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.74: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.75: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 10.505 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.92: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.490 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $6.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9444 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.761 MILLION OZ
MAR 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.36: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.792 MILLION OZ.
MAR 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.705 MILLION OZ.
MAR 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.57: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.056 MILLION OZ.
MAR 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.83: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592
MAR 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.713 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592 MILLION OZ
MAR 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.96 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.812 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.305 MILLION OZ
MAR 10 WITH SILVER UP $5. HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.63 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.117 MILLION OZ
MAR 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.747 MILLION OZ
MAR 6 WITH SILVER UP $2.02 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.526 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508,287 MILLION OZ
MAR 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.98 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.097 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 512.726 MILLION OZ
MAR 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 513.813 MILLION OZ
MAR 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $5.27 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2/899 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 511.268 MILLION OZ
MAR 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.87 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.352 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.167 MILLION OZ
FEB 27 WITH SILVER UP $5.54 SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 0.544 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.519 MILLION OZ
FEB 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.05 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.906 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.975 MILLION OZ
FEB 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.43 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.923 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 517.881 MILLION OZ
FEB 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.55 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.056 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 508.958 MILLION OZ
FEB 23 WITH SILVER UP $4.89 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 0.951 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.902 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 491.579 MILLION OZ OF SILVER..
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
MATHEW PIEPENBURG…
XXX
JOHN RUBINO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Gold and commodities are set to soar
Don’t be misled by market stasis. Events in the Middle East are not being taken seriously in financial markets when in fact they are driving the global economy off a cliff.
| Alasdair MacleodApr 15∙Paid |
Suddenly, gold and silver appear to have bottomed out and are marching higher. Led by energy, the entire commodity complex is donning its marching boots and setting off for higher pastures. This is the reaction to the US blockade in the Sea of Oman. Mine supplies of base metals and silver are threatened by energy costs and shortages of vital chemicals such as sulphuric acid. The impact on consumer prices is being seriously underestimated.
It’s not just supplies of energy and downstream products such as sulphuric acid and fertilisers being restricted as a result of America’s war on Iran, and now its blockade of a blockade. Other national exporters of these vital commodities are hoarding their supplies, withdrawing them from global markets. There are signs that China is also tightening up on silver and rare earths. Why would they do otherwise?
Paper prices under-represent the impact. Dated Brent FOB Northern Europe is trading at $145-$150, over 50% above paper futures, according to today’s Daily Telegraph. Think about that for a moment!
Yet markets ignore the reality, just as the blockade intensifies.
It appears that the Iran war, at least with the US has moved from carpet bombing to economic attrition. Israel appears to want to continue breaking the ceasefire, so this is not a pure argument. However, by stopping Iran’s exports to China, China is now centre stage. But she can sit it out, with her massive oil stockpiles and alternative sources of supply.
It’s become a game of chicken against the whole world, which America is unlikely to win. It amounts to a deliberate policy of throwing the global economy, and America’s own under the bus.
In an earlier article, I pointed out that the oil shock of 1973-74 led to a subsequent combined economic slump and inflation shock peaking at 11.1% in 1974 in the US, 24.2% in the UK in 1975, 13.7% in France in 1974, and 23.2% in Japan in 1974. While in percentage terms the oil shock was greater than this one so far, this one is more widespread in its consequences. With her government debt to GDP at 255%, and interest rates at less than 1%, Japan which is the world’s exporter of capital is in the deepest trouble. In 1973 she was in a far stronger financial position but suffered inflation at 23.2%.
Another thing to think about.
Inflation of consumer prices arises from governments trying to avoid the economic consequences of an oil shock — a slump in business activity and soaring unemployment. They print currency and bank reserves to make credit available to pay higher prices, and politics leaves no alternative to introducing price controls on essential items. A combination of killing off supply by price suppression and currency debasement leads to higher credit risk, higher bond yields, and higher gold prices, the last reflecting declining purchasing powers for currencies.
So, why is this not being reflected in markets to date?
There appears to be two broad answers. The first is that investors and traders are mentally committed to the status quo ante. We saw this in the 2008-09 crisis. It was perfectly obvious that there was a major property crisis driven by excess credit combined with liar loans looming, as watchers of The Big Short will attest. Michael Burry’s short positions were very badly squeezed before the sleepy Wall Street establishment awoke to the crisis and the S&P halved.
The second is that the establishment, from the IMF downwards doesn’t want to trigger a panic. In the last few days, the IMF revised its economic forecasts to take account of the Iran crisis. It changed its growth forecast for the US economy from 2.4% to 2.3%. Japan, which imports 90% of her oil from the Gulf is forecast not to be impacted at all. Britain gets the worst downgrade at 0.5%.
They must be kidding!
We should know how Michael Burry must have felt in early-2008. The situation today is equally surreal. Something will trigger a snap back to reality, and the market adjustment will be lifechanging for investors, in a very bad way. Other than a gathering slide into the abyss of a credit crisis, the most likely candidate is probably the Houthis blocking the Red Sea and effectively Suez. An additional 6 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu terminal will be taken off the market.
Gold doubled in 1974 from $90 to $200 in response to the oil shock. This time, G7 government debt to GDP has more than doubled on average from the mid-seventies, putting these economies on a far more perilous footing. Furthermore, central banks around the world are running scared of the dollar and the other G7 currencies which is why they are buying all the bullion they can get their hands on.
Worse, for investors fully invested in the status quo ante they own almost no gold and are standing naked facing what is to come. They need to get out of credit urgently, which includes fiat currencies, into the protection of real money.
That’s what a firming bullion price is telling us
NO 268 DR STEPHEN LEEB…
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT NO 267
end.
5. COMMODITY REPORT//..COPPER
AI
copper Rally Gains Steam As Supply Stress Tops Growth Fears
Copper prices have been on a strong run, with the phrase “Copper Rally Gains Steam As Supply Stress Tops Growth Fears” capturing a recurring theme in 2025–early 2026 market commentary. As of mid-April 2026, copper is trading around $5.97–$6.07 per pound (roughly $12,800–$13,400 per metric ton on the LME/COMEX), showing modest daily fluctuations but remaining elevated after a volatile period of record highs earlier in the year.
tradingeconomics.comWhat’s Driving the Rally?The core narrative is supply constraints outweighing near-term growth worries (e.g., from trade tensions, China slowdown fears, or potential recession signals). Key factors include:
- Mine disruptions and slow supply growth: Major operations in Chile, Indonesia (e.g., Grasberg issues), Congo, and elsewhere faced accidents, grade declines, operational setbacks, and force majeure events in 2025. New mine development lags due to high capital needs (~$250 billion gap cited by some analysts), permitting delays, and declining ore grades. Mined supply growth is projected at only ~0.5–1% in the near term.
- Structural demand tailwinds:
- Energy transition & electrification: EVs use ~4x more copper than traditional cars; renewables (wind/solar) and grid upgrades are massive consumers.
- AI and data centers: Surging electricity demand for AI infrastructure is a newer, powerful driver.
- Broader industrialization: Defense spending, infrastructure, and re-shoring trends add to the pull.
- Macro and geopolitical boosts: Weaker USD periods, Fed rate cuts, and investor flows into “hard assets” amid fiscal/geopolitical uncertainty helped amplify gains. Tariff fears (especially U.S. policies) led to preemptive stockpiling in the U.S., tightening availability elsewhere and contributing to price spikes.
Copper hit all-time highs above $13,000–$14,000/ton in January 2026 (and briefly flirted with records in late 2025), with some analysts calling the move partly speculative but fundamentally anchored by tightness.
morningstar.comCurrent Market Balance (as of April 2026)
- Prices have pulled back modestly from peak levels but remain supported.
- Forecasts vary: Some banks (e.g., earlier Goldman Sachs views) warned of a potential surplus and correction in 2026 due to Chinese smelter dynamics or demand softness, projecting averages around $10,000–$11,750/ton. Others see persistent deficits (hundreds of thousands of tons) into 2026–2027, with longer-term structural shortages growing dramatically by 2035–2040 (up to 10 million tons deficit projected by S&P Global in one study). press.spglobal.com
- Low treatment/refining charges (TC/RCs) signal concentrate tightness; Chinese smelters have cut output in response.
Risks and Outlook
- Bull case: Supply stress dominates. If demand from AI/grid/EVs accelerates and disruptions persist, prices could retest highs or push higher. Long-term, many see copper as a secular winner.
- Bear case: Short-term demand destruction in China, stronger USD, resolved geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East de-escalation easing energy/inflation pressures), or faster mine recoveries could cool the rally. Some analysts already flagged the early-2026 surge as “stretched” or “unsustainable.”
- Volatility remains high due to trade policies, inventory shifts (heavy U.S. stocking), and macro swings.
This ties into broader commodity and geopolitical themes — for example, any sustained disruption in energy markets (like tensions around the Strait of Hormuz) can indirectly support industrial metals via inflation or substitution effects, though copper is more directly tied to supply fundamentals than oil.If this headline is from a specific article, report, or video you’re referencing (or if it’s tied to the TBN Israel context we discussed earlier), feel free to share more details or a link for a deeper dive. Are you looking at copper as an investment angle, mining stocks, related commodities (like silver/gold), or something else?
end
FLORIDE:
Iran War Leads To Fluoride Shortages For Some US Water Utilities
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 02:00 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
Multiple water providers have lowered the amount of fluoride they add to water for millions of Americans, amid shortages stemming from the U.S.–Iran war.
The Baltimore City Department of Public Works said on April 13 that it is reducing the level of fluoride from 0.7 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 0.4 mg/L.
The move, officials said, was driven by disruptions to the supply chain caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. A key Israeli supplier, specifically, has been struggling to meet demand.
“This is an adjustment driven solely by supply availability,” Matthew Garbark, director of the Baltimore City Department of Public Works, said in a statement.
“We remain committed to providing safe, high-quality drinking water.”
Some 1.8 million people in and around Baltimore, the most populous city in Maryland, are served water by the city of Baltimore utility.
Fluoride, a mineral, is put in water as a preventative for tooth decay and cavities. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends adding 0.7 mg/L.
WSSC Water, which serves 1.9 million people in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties in Maryland, said earlier in April it would be adding only 0.4 mg/L because of “nationwide supply chain disruptions.”
Hydrofluorosilicic acid, an important compound for water fluoridation, has been hard to source amid the war, including from a supplier in Israel, the utility said. Israel is one of the world’s top exporters of fluorosilicic acid, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the United States is among the world’s top five importers of the product.
“This is a temporary adjustment driven solely by supply availability,” Ben Thompson, WSSC Water’s director of production, said in a statement.
“We remain committed to maintaining safe, high-quality drinking water and will restore optimal fluoride levels as soon as supply conditions stabilize.”
In Pennsylvania, the borough of Lititz told its water customers in March that it had to halt fluoridation for a couple of weeks because of supply issues.
As the conflict continues, “there will likely be additional stressors placed on the supply chain, leading to shortages in additional communities,” said Dan Hartnett, chief policy officer for the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies.
A few months’ drop in fluoride levels is probably not a cause for concern for most people, said Dr. Scott Tomar, an American Dental Association community water fluoridation expert. Lower levels can have an impact over the span of years, he said.
Tomar said younger children would be the first to experience tooth decay, because the fluoride strengthens enamel as their teeth are developing and once they have grown in.
Some states and municipalities have in recent months completely stopped water fluoridation, as officials have pointed to emerging data such as a 2024 report from the National Institutes of Health that concluded with moderate confidence that higher levels of fluoride exposure were linked to decreases in children’s IQ scores.
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said that fluoride from toothpaste is sufficient to keep teeth strong.
The Environmental Protection Agency said in January that it would assess the safety of adding fluoride to water.
END
XXX
ASIAN AFFAIRS APRIL 15/2026
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.58 PTS OR 0.01%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 98.18 PTS OR 0.38%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 350.61 PTS OR 0.61%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.39%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN 6.8183
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8162 Oil DOWN TO 90.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 94.68 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8175 (DOWN) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8162 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8183
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.8162
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 98.18 PTS OR 0.38%
2. Nikkei closed UP 350.61 PTS OR 0.61%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 90.78
BRENT; 94.68
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 97.93/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1789 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:REMAINS AT. +2.414 DOWN 0 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 158.84… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.603 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: 6.8183( DOWN AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.8162
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.0260 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.786// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.469%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.756%
3j Gold at $4810.75 //Silver at: 79.21 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 72 100 roubles/74.65
3m oil (WTI) into the 90 dollar handle for WTI and 94 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.09 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.414% DOWN 0 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.603 DOWN 2 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7808 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9265
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.255 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.864 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.759 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.75 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7810 DOWN 4 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.457 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.430 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.049 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Unchanged Just Shy Of All Time High On Peace Hopes, Solid Earnings
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 08:38 AM
US equity futures are flat following yesterday’s rally as market awaits news on the Iran war resolution and as we traverse earnings season. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures are little changed after the benchmark closed within a whisker of a record. Risk sentiment took a small knock in recent trade after Iran cautioned that it will not allow shipments to or from the Gulf if the US blockade remain.Nasdaq futures are fractionally in the green, and set for an 11th consecutive gain as the massive short squeeze/CTA forced buying continues: in premarket trading, Mag7 / Semis are mixed, Discretionary and Staples are both stronger, Fins / Indu are leading Cyclicals with weakness in Materials. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley rose in premarket trading as their equity traders posted strong revenue beats. Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded flat, while China’s mainland blue-chip index became the latest in Asia to recoup losses since the Iranian war began. Brent erased early losses to rise 1% toward $96 a barrel as the US pressed ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Treasuries edged lower, with the two-year yield rising one basis point to 3.76% and the 10Y rising 2bps to 4.27%. The dollar is slightly stronger which would break a 7 session losing streak if gains hold while gold fell toward $4,800 an ounce. Other commodities are mixed with Ags, Base metals, and the Energy complex ex-natgas bid. Today’s macro data focus is on Beige Book, TIC data (keep an eye on buys/sells of Trsys), Housing prices, Empire Mfg, and Import/Export prices.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Microsoft +0.6%, Tesla +0.5%, Meta +0.1%, Apple -0.04%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.08%, Nvidia -0.1%)
- Quantum computing stocks rise, on track to extend gains, after Nvidia unveiled a suite of new open-source AI models aimed at accelerating progress within quantum computing.
- Solar stocks are rising after Reuters reported that China held initial talks with providers of equipment to make solar panels as it considers limiting exports of the most advanced technology to the US, citing five people familiar with the matter. Gainers include First Solar (FSLR) +4%.
- Broadcom (AVGO) rises 3% after the technology company expanded its partnership with Meta to deploy AI infrastructure.
- BRP Inc. (DOO) slumps 22% after the Canadian recreational manufacturer withdrew its financial outlook for the 2027 fiscal year, saying it faces a $363 million hit from recent changes by the Trump administration to its tariffs.
- Cloudflare (NET) gains 3% as Piper Sandler upgrades to overweight, calling it an “AI-winner to own.”
- Gitlab (GTLB) gains 6% after the company announced a collaboration with Google Cloud to bring agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI.
- Robinhood (HOOD) rises 7% and Webull (BULL) gains 8% after the Securities and Exchange Commission gave the go-ahead for sweeping changes to a restriction on day-trading activity by small investors.
- Snap Inc. (SNAP) climbs 8% after saying it is laying off roughly 1,000 full-time employees, or 16% of its global workforce, part of an effort by Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel to reduce costs and achieve profitability.
- SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) slips 3% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the company to sell, saying expectations are too high.
- TeraWulf (WULF) falls over 7% after the Bitcoin mining company’s preliminary first-quarter revenue came in below Wall Street’s expectations. The company also said it is offering $800 million of shares via Morgan Stanley and Cantor Fitzgerald.
In corporate news, Anthropic has received offers from investors for a new round of funding that could value the company at about $800 billion or higher. Meta anounced an expanded multibillion-dollar partnership with Broadcom to design and build custom chips for AI. Stellantis’s global shipments jumped 12% in the first quarter, led by a surge in demand in North America for its refreshed Jeep and Ram models.
In the latest Middle East developments, as US/Iran move towards a second official negotiation, another aircraft carrier (USS George HW Bush) is set to arrive with additional soldiers and war ships around Apr 21, with the ceasefire set to expire on Apr 22; this carrier group’s route appears to be avoiding the Suez Canal / Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The USS Abraham Lincoln has completed repairs in Crete though it is unknown if it will resume activities in the ME Conflict, which would be the third aircraft carrier. Bessent says ME Conflict is worth having some short-term economic pain for long-term gain. Iran’s state TV cited Ali Abdollahi, the commander of Iran’s joint military headquarters, who warned that if the US continues to impose a naval blockade in the region and creates insecurity for Iran’s ships, “this action by the US will constitute a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire.” If the blockade continues, Iran’s armed forces “will not permit any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea.”
Meanwhile, bank earnings point to a generally healthy consumer and corporate sector, both able to withstand the supply chain shock emanating from the Middle East without experiencing stagflation / recession.
President Trump told the New York Post that talks could resume “over the next two days” and said in a Fox Business interview the war is “close to over.” Mediators moved closer to extending the ceasefire between the two parties, the Associated Press reported.
Investors have been piling back into stocks even with no clear end in sight to the war, which has choked off around a fifth of global crude supplies and risked a surge in inflation that could still prompt central banks to tighten policy.
“Amid all the uncertainty, I consider it warranted to re-focus on the outlook beyond the war,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg. “A key driver of markets is that the war-related dash for liquidity is over and partly reversing. That helps the more risky assets.”
Technology shares in particular have been snapped up after lagging the market for much of the year, with the Nasdaq 100 notching its longest stretch of daily wins since 2021. In just the past two sessions, a popular exchange-traded fund that tracks the software industry is up 6.4%. Oracle Corp. has soared 18% and Microsoft Corp. and Palantir Technologies Inc. have gained 6%.
“The US tech sector, including the Magnificent Seven, is much cheaper today than six months ago,” said Lilian Chovin, head of asset allocation at Coutts & Co. “Concerns around the Middle East won’t disappear all of a sudden, but the ability of those companies to generate earnings in a difficult macro environment remains very attractive.”
With the earnings season now in full swing, investors will watch for signs of whether the conflict is denting the outlook for earnings and whether corporates and consumers are cutting back on spending amid the uncertainty. In Europe, ASML Holding NV shares fell 0.5% as a weaker-than-expected sales outlook for the second quarter tempered a raised full-year forecast for the maker of advanced chipmaking machines. Luxury firms Hermes International SCA and Kering SA slumped after disappointing sales updates.
It’s still early in the earnings season, but Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said he’s “impressed by the resiliency of Corporate America” so far. Management teams at the likes of Citigroup, Delta Airlines and JPMorgan have pointed to relatively stable trends in terms of customer spending and activity, he said. That’s helping the narrative of US strength over the rest of the world. In Europe, luxury giants Hermès and Kering both reported poor results as the war crimped sales.
Financials dominate the first week of earnings season, but remain bottom of the pile in sector returns for the year. Morgan Stanley is expected to post record equity-trading revenue, while BofA’s top-line gains and cost control in 1Q should usher in positive operating leverage, according to BI.
Elsewhere, chip equipment maker ASML’s CEO expects chip demand to outpace supply “for the foreseeable future,” creating “a strong constraint” in various markets from AI to mobile and PC. These supply/demand dynamics are showing up in the global smartphone market, which suffered its first decline since 2023 in 1Q, according to market tracker IDC. The memory crunch and war in Iran are likely to elevate costs and constrain growth further in 2026.
“Earnings will be key for fundamental investors to step in and chase or fade,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Plc. With “stocks near year-to-date highs, it feels like easy gains are behind us and fundamentals should prevail again.”
In geopolitics, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the BBC that the Iran war is worth a “small bit of economic pain,” ahead of what is likely to be a tense meeting with his UK counterpart Rachel Reeves. Trump described the relationship with the UK as “sad,” adding that the trade deal between the countries “can always be changed.” Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged deeper bilateral coordination with Russia.
European indices mostly tilt lower with the broad Stoxx 600 down 0.1% with technology and health care shares leading gains, while consumer products and energy stocks are the biggest laggards. The CAC 40 lags with losses of 0.6% following disappointing earnings from Hermes and Kering, with the former posting its largest decline on record. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
- Aixtron gains as much as 15%, to the highest since June 2001, after pre-announcing its first-quarter results and lifting guidance for the full year
- ASML shares advance as much as 1.8% after the Dutch firm raised full-year sales guidance, a signal of strong demand from chipmakers
- Basic-Fit shares jump as much as 8.3%, to the highest intraday since Jan. 27, after KBC Securities upgraded the Dutch health club chain to buy from hold
- DFDS shares rise as much as 16%, their biggest gain in over a year, after the shipping and logistics company raised its Ebit guidance
- Intertek Group shares rise as much as 14% after analysts welcomed the group’s initiation of a strategic review to evaluate if Intertek Testing & Assurance and Intertek Energy & Infrastructure would be better positioned as separate businesses
- Saga shares jump as much as 12% to the highest in six years after the travel and insurance company reported full-year results, with Peel Hunt noting encouraging current trading and strong ocean cruise bookings
- Hermès shares fall as much as 14%, the most on record, after the luxury-goods firm reports first-quarter sales that missed analyst estimates, dragged down by a weak performance in Asia Pacific and France
- Kering shares fall 10% after the French luxury group’s key fashion & leather goods unit fell short of expectations, dragged down by worse-than-expected Gucci sales
- Imperial Brands drops as much as 3.2% after being downgraded by analysts at UBS on a lack of near-term catalysts and concerns around more intense competition
- Colruyt declines as much as 6%, the most in almost four months, as JPMorgan places the retail company on a negative catalyst watch into its full-year results in June and lowers its price target to a new Street low
Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia gained after the US and Iran stepped up efforts to arrange a second round of peace talks, reviving hopes for an end to six weeks of hostilities in the Middle East that fueled an energy crisis. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4%, led by gains in TSMC and Samsung Electronics. A gauge of the region’s technology stocks jumped as much as 2.9% to an all-time high, tracking an overnight rally on Wall Street. South Korea’s Kospi outperformed major markets. Thailand was closed for a holiday.
Renewed optimism over Middle East stability has shifted investor focus back toward technology earnings and the outlook for further AI-driven capital expenditure. While geopolitics risks linger, fatigue is tempering reactions to incremental developments. Stocks advanced in Hong Kong, Japan and the Philippines. Shares also traded higher in India as trading resumed after a holiday.
In rates, treasuries are marginally cheaper across the curve in early US trading, having erased small gains spurred by AP report that the US and Iran agreed in principle to extend a truce. US 2- to 10-year yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper with long-end little changed, flattening 5s30s spread by less than 1bp; 10-year near 4.26% slightly underperforms German and UK counterparts. US session has few scheduled events beyond Fed Beige Book release. Corporate new-issue calendar has begun to build, with a busy day expected after several borrowers stood down Tuesday.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has just veered into positive territory, up 0.1% after a run of seven consecutive losses.
In commodities, oil is higher following sharp drop from Monday’s high that helped drive gains for US stocks. WTI crude oil futures remain about 1.5% higher with the latest update from Iran sending prices to session highs. Spot gold and silver have ebbed lower throughout the session, showing respective losses of 1% and 1.3%. Bitcoin loses 0.3%.
The US economic data calendar includes April Empire manufacturing and March import/export price index (8:30am), April NAHB housing market index (10am) and February TIC flows (4pm). Fed speaker slate includes Governor Barr and Cleveland’s Hammack (8:30am) and Governor Bowman (1:45pm); Beige Book released 2pm.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini little changed
- Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
- Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
- Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
- DAX little changed
- CAC 40 -0.5%
- 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.26%
- VIX little changed at 18.32
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1193.5
- euro little changed at $1.1786
- WTI crude +1.2% at $92.36/barrel
Top Overnight News
- US President Donald Trump played down the prospect of renewed fighting in the war with Iran, saying the war is “close to over” and extending a ceasefire that expires next week may not be necessary. Talks between the US and Iran might restart “over the next two days”, according to Trump, after an initial round of peace talks ended in Pakistan on Sunday without a deal. BBG
- The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, as the Trump administration attempts to pressure Iran into a deal that could end the weeks long conflict there while considering the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if a fragile ceasefire deal does not hold. WaPo
- A fallback plan to ensure Europe can defend itself using NATO’s existing military structures if the U.S. departs is gaining traction after getting buy-in from Germany, a long-term opponent of a go-it-alone approach. The officials working on the plans, which some officials are referring to as “European NATO,” are seeking to get more Europeans into the alliance’s command-and-control roles and supplement U.S. military assets with their own. WSJ
- Xi Jinping met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Beijing. BBG
- The US-UK trade deal “can always be changed,” Trump told Sky News, describing the relationship between the two countries as “sad.” BBG
- ASML raised its sales forecast as the surge in AI spending continued to boost demand, as optimism about the tech returned to the spotlight. BBG
- President Donald Trump’s tariffs may be restored by July to the levels in place before the Supreme Court struck down many of his levies, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. BBG
- Maine lawmakers have passed a bill that could make it the first U.S. state to put a moratorium on new data centers as opposition to the electricity-hungry facilities grows across the country over their impact on household energy bills and the environment. The bill would freeze approvals for data centers requiring more than 20 megawatts of power until October 2027, while a state-appointed council analyzes their impact on the local grid, electricity bills, air and water. RTRS
- Anthropic received several offers for a new round of funding that would more than double its pre-money valuation to about $800 billion or higher, people familiar said. BBG
- US Treasury has begun quietly asking private credit firms to submit information detailing their business models and ties to the regulated financial system: Punchbowl.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said underlying economy remains strong and still thinks growth could exceed 3% to 3.5% this year.
- White House Economic Advisor Hassett said real income growth is very high and he is confident the economy will be strong this year.
Iran War
- Effort to extend US-Iran ceasefire has made progress, AP reports citing official; mediators aim to extend the ceasefire for at least another two weeks; both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.
- Discussions are underway regarding possible extension of temporary ceasefire between Iran and US, according to Arab diplomatic sources cited by Russia on Wednesday and being reported by Chinese press CCTV. However, US President Trump said it could end either way, but thinks a deal is preferable because then Iran can rebuild, also said he isn’t thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn’t think it will be necessary, according to reported citing ABC reporter on X.
- The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reports citing US officials; in a bid to pressure Iran while mulling the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.
- US President Trump said it’s “very possible” a deal with Iran will be reached by the time the King visits the US later this month (27-29th April), Sky News reported.
- US President Trump said he views the war being very close to over, according to Fox News.
- US VP Vance said we are negotiating with Iran and ceasefire is holding, adds Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal. Feel good about where we are. Lot of mistrust between the US and Iran, can’t be solved overnight.
- US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of talks with Iranian officials should negotiations lead to another face-to-face meeting before the ceasefire expires next week, according to sources familiar cited by CNN.
- Pakistan leadership’s overseas tour until April 18th dims prospects of US-Iran talks in Islamabad before April 18th, Pakistani journalist Mallick reported.
- Iran is to use alternative ports to those in southern Iran to bypass the US blockade in the Strait, Mehr News reported.
- An Iranian VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier), which was on the US sanctions list, entered the waters of Iran past the US blockade, Fars reported.
- Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war, according to an FT investigation.
- US Central Command said blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented and that US forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.
- US has intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the start of the blockade, according to WSJ.
- New satellite images show Iran digging for missile launchers trapped underground amid a ceasefire, according to CNN.
- More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, WSJ reported, citing US officials.
- US destroyer interdicted two oil tankers that attempted to leave Iran on Tuesday, according to an official cited by Reuters.
- US President Trump reiterates on Truth Social “NATO wasn’t there for us, and they won’t be there for us in the future!”.
- Europe is accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case US President Trump pulls US out of the treaty, according to WSJ.
- US Pentagon is likely to trim its Iran wall funding request, according to WSJ citing Senator Coons who is the top democrat on the Senate appropriations defence committee.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took its cue from the rally on Wall St amid continued hopes regarding US-Iran talks, while President Trump suggested talks could occur during the next two days. ASX 200 eked mild gains, but with upside capped as strength in tech, gold miners and health care was offset by losses in energy and some defensives, while trade was also restricted by a lack of data and drivers. Nikkei 225 rallied above the 58,000 level, with the positive risk sentiment facilitated by the recent decline in oil prices and the much stronger-than-expected Machinery Orders. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with the gains in Hong Kong led by tech strength, while oil majors lagged after the recent oil decline. Furthermore, the PBoC continued its meagre daily liquidity efforts through 7-day reverse repo operations, but had announced yesterday to conduct CNY 500bln of 183-day outright reverse repos for today.
Top Asian News
- China’s State Council says temporary measures, including suspending approvals or filings, may be used to address industries facing severe disorderly competition.
- Chinese President Xi said in meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that China is to enhance communications with Russia and the stability of ties with Russia is valuable.
- Russian President Putin’s visit to China is being prepared and the timing of the visit will be announced by the Kremlin in due course, according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskov.
European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) point to a mixed picture, primarily driven by diverging earnings. The CAC 40 (-0.6%) is the big underperformer following losses in luxury names (Hermes -9%, Kering -9.1%), while the AEX (+0.1%) slightly outperforms as ASML (+0.1%) gains. As mentioned above, Q1 earnings reports by ASML, Kering and Hermes have been of focus this morning. Starting with Europe’s most valuable company, ASML reported sales that beat estimates while also raising its FY26 revenue guidance. The CEO highlighted that demand for chips is outpacing supply and that order intake continues to be very strong. Despite the strong report, shares initially fell slightly at the open, possibly on the softer Q2 sales guidance, but has reversed course since.
Top European News
- French Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 0.9%); HICP Y/Y 2.0% vs. prelim. 1.9%.
- French Inflation Rate MoM Final (Mar) M/M 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.6%).
- EU Industrial Production MoM (Feb) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -1.5%, Low. -0.5%, High. 1.0%)
- EU Industrial Production YoY (Feb) Y/Y -0.6% vs. Exp. -1.4% (Prev. -1.2%, Low. -1.9%, High. -1.0%)
- Polish Inflation Rate MoM Final (Mar) M/M 1.1% vs. Exp. 1% (Prev. 0.3%).
- Polish Inflation Rate YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 3.0% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 2.4%).
Trade/Tariffs
- China is reportedly considering curbs on solar manufacturing equipment exports to the US, Reuters reported citing sources.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said tariffs could be back in place to previous levels by July, and doesn’t think there’s a big risk from Trump’s China trip; US wants to de-risk, not decouple from China and China’s global trade surplus is getting excessive.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent plans to visit Japan in mid-May, Kyodo reported.
- An Indian trade official said a trade delegation will visit the US from April 20–22nd for trade deal talks.
- Australia and Brunei committed to maintaining open trade flows, while both sides reaffirmed commitment to strengthen energy and food security.
FX
- G10s are mostly lower against the USD, with the AUD marginally outperforming whilst the CHF lags incrementally. Overall, it is a cautious mood in the FX space as markets await details on when/if the second round of US-Iran talks will begin.
- DXY trades above the 98.00 handle, which it dipped under on Tuesday. The narrative remains an optimistic one with MUFG saying it looks like “the period when investors begin throwing in the towel on the long dollar trade.” and ING writing this morning that these USD levels “seem to embed a fair amount of premature optimism”. The greenback sees a busy calendar ahead with comments from the US President to be aired at 11:00 BST via Fox News and several Fed speakers, including Barr (voter; no text expected) to speak on consumer compliance supervision and regulation, Hammack on CNBC (2026 voter; no text expected) and Bowman (voter, dove; no text expected) to speak at the IIF.
- It is worth noting that the USD saw some mild strength following a piece in the Washington Post, which suggested that the US is sending “thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days… in a bid to pressure Iran” – the piece also highlighted the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.
- Several updates for the UK this morning, with Times and Sky News scoops lacking good news for the Chancellor. On the domestic front, The Times hears that UK Chancellor Reeves is looking to back down on plans to increase fuel duty by 5p a litre from September; the suggestion is that the move would cost about GBP 2.6bln. On defence, Chancellor Reeves is said to have proposed only increasing defence spending by less than GBP 10bln over the next four years, fearing a bigger increase would be unaffordable. On the docket ahead, the Chancellor is planning to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in the US today. It should not be a game-changer. She is expected to touch on the Strait of Hormuz, the need to stabilise markets, and potentially to confirm the UK’s participation in the EU’s EUR 90bln loan to Ukraine, POLITICO reported. BoE’s Greene and Bailey to speak later in the day. As sterling digests these updates, EUR/GBP trades unchanged below the key 0.87 mark, while Cable is also unchanged as it pulled back from Tuesday’s 1.3589 high.
Central Banks
- ECB President Lagarde said ECB is in a good position to respond to the Iran situation, adds would be a mistake to say we need to look through the shock, and it’s just too soon to make such a conclusion.
- ECB’s Rehn said tightening is not guaranteed, the policy path depends a lot on how the Middle East conflict evolves.
- BoK Governor nominee Shin said South Korea inflation is to accelerate and external risks pose uncertainty. Sees upward pressure on prices and downward pressure on the economy. Risks may expand further and economic growth may weaken. To seek to stabilise prices and financial stability, and will work to internationalise the won. Monetary policy needs to act if there are prolonged inflationary pressures stemming from Iran war.
- SNB, ahead of the end-2027 introduction of the PSFF, has decided to lower the special-rate surcharge from 50bps to 25bps as of July 1st.
- The PBoC raises the leverage ratios for bank’s overseas loans.
Fixed Income
- Global fixed benchmarks are currently mixed, with USTs a little lower whilst Bunds and Gilts continue to build on recent strength. The geopolitical environment appears to be easing, with traders now digesting President Trump’s latest comments, where he stated that he views the war as being very close to over, adding that he does not think it will be necessary to extend a ceasefire. Given the generally positive mood music, crude prices remain at recent lows, reducing inflationary implications on the economy for the time being. Markets await further commentary from POTUS at 11:00 BST.
- It is worth noting that USTs dipped into the red in recent trade after a piece in the Washington Post suggested that the US is sending “thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days… in a bid to pressure Iran” – the piece also highlighted the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks. US paper currently trades at the lower end of a 111-14 to 111-21 range. Geopols aside, import/export prices, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Fed’s Beige Book, TIC/foreign bond investment data are due. On the speaker slate, Fed’s Barr, Bowman and Hammack are all on the docket.
- Bunds are firmer by c. 10 ticks, and towards the lower end of a 125.35 to 125.40 range. Further pressure in German paper could see a breach below Tuesday’s close at 125.32, and then 125.21 (50% fib of Tuesday’s move). No move to the 2048, 2052 and 2056 Bund auctions. From a yield perspective, the GE 2yr oscillates around near-term troughs at 2.53%, but well off the levels seen pre-war. UniCredit analysts highlight that following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, the German 10/30yr spread has bull-steeped and is currently trading at 56bps, 14bps higher than the recent trough. Despite the recent hopes of an end of the conflict, the analysts do not see the spread returning to the pre-conflict 67bps anytime soon.
- Gilts gapped higher by 30 ticks, briefly extended to a peak of 89.31, before scaling back off those levels as the morning progressed to make a trough of 88.88. As above, Gilts moved higher on the geopolitical optimism, before moving off best levels alongside peers. In terms of the BoE, money markets currently assign no chance of a hike in April, and fully price in a 25bps hike in September – ultimately, markets remain cautious about the inflationary implications of the Iran conflict, despite signs of easing tensions. Focus today will be on BoE speak from Greene (15:15 BST), and Bailey, the latter slated to speak twice; in recent commentary, the Governor believed markets were “getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes”.
Commodities
- In geopolitics, US President Trump told Fox that he sees the Iran war as “very close to being over” and said talks could resume “over the next two days”; the full interview is due to air at 11:00BST/06:00EDT. Elsewhere, it was also reported that discussions are underway regarding a possible extension of the temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US. That being said, it’s worth noting that Pakistan’s leadership will be away until April 18th, which dims the prospects of a US-Iran meeting before that date, according to local journalists.
- Crude prices were hit on Tuesday as traders weighed prospects for a second round of US-Iran talks against the near-total double blockade of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Early morning action saw both Brent Jun and WTI Jun trade on either side of the unchanged mark, and near recent lows. However, the complex gradually lifted off lows as the morning progressed, and then took a leg higher to session peaks following a WaPo piece which suggested that the US is sending “thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days… in a bid to pressure Iran” – the piece also highlighted the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks. Brent Jun currently holds at the upper end of a USD 93.93-96.25/bbl range; WTI Jun also firmer today, within a USD 84.70-89.75/bbl range.
- Gold eased into the European session and currently resides in a USD 4,792-4,871/oz range at the time of writing. Some desks view the recent move as technical, with prices bouncing off the 200 DMA in late March. Base metal prices are mostly but modestly firmer. London copper has now erased all losses triggered by the conflict, moving above its 27th February close as traders focused on possible peace talks. 3M LME copper resides in a tight USD 13,251.45- 13,391.60/t range.
- Codelco is in talks with India’s Hindustan Copper over a joint venture for Chilean copper.
- Japan plans to extend private sector oil release by one month, according to TV Asahi.
- Venezuela’s Interim President Rodriguez called for a long-term energy partnership with the US.
- White House said more than 100 empty oil tankers are on their way to U.S. ports to load American crude, CBS reported. Of the 103 empty vessels, 54 are Very Large Crude Carriers capable of transporting approximately two million barrels. Among them were “20 empty tankers under European flags and 20 under Asian flags” that had “recently unloaded elsewhere”.
- US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +6.1mln (exp -1.3mln), Distillate -3.4mln (exp. -2.5mln), Gasoline +0.6mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing -1.7mln.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00 am: United States Apr 10 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.8%
- 8:30 am: United States Apr Empire Manufacturing, est. 0, prior -0.2
- 8:30 am: United States Mar Import Price Index MoM, est. 2.3%, prior 1.3%
- 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Barr in Moderated Discussion
- 8:30 am: United States Fed’s Hammack Appears on CNBC
- 1:45 pm: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks at IIF Forum
- 2:00 pm: United States Fed Releases Beige Book
- 4:00 pm: United States Feb Total Net TIC Flows, prior -25.02b
- 4:00 pm: United States Feb Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior 15.51b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Hopes for a de-escalation between the US and Iran have continued to propel markets higher this morning, with Trump saying overnight that “I think it’s close to over.” So oil prices have remained steady, with Brent crude at $95.26/bbl, and the surge for risk assets has continued. Indeed, yesterday saw the S&P 500 (+1.18%) close just shy of its record high, meaning that the index is now up +9.8% over the last 10 sessions. For reference, that’s now even faster than the bounceback after Liberation Day last year, and we haven’t seen a run of gains that quick over 10 sessions since the post-Covid bounceback in April 2020. That optimism has continued overnight, with futures on the S&P 500 up +0.08%, and we’ve seen gains across Asian equities as well. For instance, the Nikkei (+0.82%), the KOSPI (+2.92%), the Hang Seng (+0.76%) and the CSI 300 (+0.17%) are all on track for a one-month high.
All that follows more positive headlines over the last 24 hours, which have led to mounting hopes that the US and Iran will be back at the negotiating table soon. Among others, Trump himself said yesterday to the New York Post that talks “could be happening over the next two days” in Pakistan. And that echoed a report from Reuters earlier in the day, which said that negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Islamabad this week, according to four sources. So there was a general sense that there was still a pathway towards de-escalation, and overnight, ABC’s Jonathan Karl also said that Trump told him “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead”. Over on the Iranian side, there were also headlines suggesting they wanted a deal, with Bloomberg reporting that Iran was considering a short-term pause to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, to avoid testing the US blockade and derailing any further peace talks.3
Nevertheless, that US blockade does remain in place, and US Central Command announced that 6 merchant ships were turned around and forced to re-enter an Iranian port during the first day of the US blockade. Overnight, the CENTCOM Commander also said that the blockade of Iran’s ports “has been fully implemented”, and that “U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea”. But even with the Strait of Hormuz, investors were still hopeful about some kind of reopening, with the WSJ reporting last night that European countries were putting together plans for a coalition of countries to free up the Strait of Hormuz, which would include sending mine-clearing vessels.
Collectively, this newsflow has continued to support markets, as it’s eased investor fears about a stagflationary shock. Indeed, Brent crude oil has now closed beneath $100/bbl for over a week now, and yesterday it fell another -4.60% to $94.79/bbl. Moreover, investors continue to believe the conflict will be a temporary one, with the oil futures curve still having a sharp negative slope. For example, the 6-month Brent future was down -2.18% yesterday to $82.48/bbl, and the 12-month future was down -1.66% to $77.75/bbl.
Given all that, US markets put in a strong performance, as growing hopes for a ceasefire and lower oil prices helped to support bonds and equities. So the S&P 500 (+1.18%) closed just shy of its record high from late-January, having now risen for 9 of the last 10 sessions. That was powered by the Magnificent 7 (+5.49%), which saw its strongest performance in the last two weeks, although the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.32%) also advanced. The hope of lower energy prices helped consumer cyclicals such as Media (+3.5%), Autos (+3.4%), and Consumer Discretionary Retail (+2.8%) to outperform, while Energy (-2.2%) and Banks (-0.9%) lagged. Meanwhile, there were further signs that the financial stress was easing more broadly, with the VIX index (-0.8pts) falling to just 18.36pts, its lowest since late-February, before the strikes began. In addition, US HY spreads (-11bps) fell to their tightest level in two months, at 268bps.
Over on the rates side, US Treasuries also rallied yesterday, with a further boost after the PPI inflation reading was softer than expected. It showed headline PPI was only up +0.5% in March (vs. +1.1% expected), meaning that the year-on-year measure only rose to +4.0% (vs. +4.6% expected). So that helped to ease fears about a larger wave of inflation, particularly after Friday’s CPI. And in turn, yields fell back across the curve yesterday, with the 2yr yield (-2.7bps) falling to 3.74%, whilst the 10yr yield (-4.5bps) fell to 4.25%. That was the lowest level on the 10yr yield since mid-March, and it’s down another -0.2bps overnight.
There was also some news on the Fed yesterday, as it was confirmed that Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing to become Fed Chair would be held on Tuesday. So that’ll be a crucial moment for markets, as we’ll start to get a better understanding of Warsh’s policy views and where things might head over the years ahead. To date, the barrier to Warsh’s confirmation has been that Senator Thom Tillis, a retiring Republican senator on the Committee, has said he won’t support any Fed nominees until the Department of Justice probe into Chair Powell is resolved. But the committee chair Tim Scott said yesterday that “I believe that the DOJ will finish and wrap this up in the next several weeks”. The other outstanding question is whether Powell would stay on the Board of Governors once his term as Chair concludes, as his Board seat goes up until January 2028. So far, Powell hasn’t confirmed either way, only saying that he will remain on the Board while the investigation is ongoing. But in a scenario where the investigation has concluded, he hasn’t confirmed his intentions.
Staying with the US administration, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the tariffs which were struck down by the Supreme Court could be restored to previous levels by mid-Summer. In remarks during a Wall Street Journal event, Bessent said “we will be implementing or conducting Section 301 studies, so the tariffs could be back in place at the previous level by beginning of July.” As a reminder, since the IEEPA tariffs were struck down, the administration have implemented a 10% global tariff, but that will expire on July 24 without congressional authorisation.
Earlier in Europe, markets also put in a strong performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.99%) up to a one-month high. The main driver was the decline in oil prices, and we also heard from ECB President Lagarde, who said that the ECB didn’t have a tightening bias. So that combination helped to ease investor concerns about an imminent ECB rate hike, with market pricing for an April hike down to 28% by the close, having been at 42% the previous day. So that helped bonds to rally as well, with yields on 10yr bunds (-6.8bps), OATs (-9.1bps) and BTPs (-10.7bps) all moving lower.
Finally, the IMF published their latest World Economic Outlook yesterday, where they downgraded their global growth forecasts and upgraded inflation. So global growth is now seen at +3.1% this year, down two-tenths from January. The downgrades were biggest in the areas directly affected by the conflict, with the Middle East and Central Asia slashed by two points to +1.9%. Meanwhile on inflation, they now see global consumer prices up +4.4% this year, six-tenths above the January forecast.
Looking at the day ahead, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Cipollone, Escriva, Villeroy and Schnabel, the Fed’s Barr and Bowman, and BoE Governor Bailey. Data releases include Euro Area industrial production for February. Finally, earnings releases include Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.
1 b European opening report
1c Asian opening report
Oil stabilises at $95/bbl, ASML posts top and bottom line beat, Q2 revenue guide underwhelms – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 01:44 AM
- US President Trump said he views the war as being very close to over, according to Fox.
- US President Trump said he isn’t thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn’t think it will be necessary, according to reports citing an ABC reporter on X.
- US Vice President JD Vance said they are negotiating with Iran and the ceasefire is holding, while he also stated Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal, and he feels good about where they are.
- US President Trump’s full interview on Fox Business will be aired on April 15th at 06:00EDT/11:00BST.
- APAC stocks were mostly higher; European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%
- Looking ahead, highlights include French HICP Final (Mar), EZ Industrial Production (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include Fed’s Barr & Bowman, ECB’s Lagarde, Cipollone & Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey, SNB’s Schlegel, RBA’s Hauser & RBNZ’s Breman. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Hermes.
SNAPSHOT
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1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said he views the war as being very close to over, according to Fox.
- US President Trump said it could end either way, but he thinks a deal is preferable because then Iran can rebuild, while he also said he isn’t thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn’t think it will be necessary, according to reports citing an ABC reporter on X.
- US President Trump said he doesn’t like the idea of Iran agreeing to a suspension of uranium enrichment, which would end after 20 years, although he didn’t rule the idea out.
- US President Trump posted “Will be interviewed tomorrow morning by Maria B. FoxBusiness”, while it was reported that US President Trump’s interview on Fox Business will be aired on April 15th at 06:00EDT/11:00BST.
- US Vice President JD Vance said they are negotiating with Iran and the ceasefire is holding, while he also stated Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal, and he feels good about where they are. Vance also stated that there is a lot of mistrust between the US and Iran, which can’t be solved overnight.
- US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of talks with Iranian officials should negotiations lead to another face-to-face meeting, before the ceasefire expires next week, according to sources cited by CNN.
- UN Secretary General Guterres said the indications are that it is highly probable that Iran talks will restart, while adding that nobody expects Israel-Lebanon talks today will solve all the problems, but it is very important to create conditions for change.
- Iran reportedly secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave it a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war, according to an FT investigation.
- Satellite images show Iran digging for missile launchers trapped underground, according to CNN.
- Discussions are reportedly underway regarding a possible extension of the temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US, according to Arab diplomatic sources cited by Russia, as reported by Chinese press CCTV
- US State Department said they discussed steps to start negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, while the US expressed support for further talks. Furthermore, it stated that Lebanon called for a ceasefire and measures to address the humanitarian crisis, and the parties agreed to start direct negotiations at a mutually agreed time and place.
- Israeli ambassador to the US said regarding Lebanon talks, that both are united in liberating Lebanon from Hezbollah and talked about a long-term vision for a clearly delineated border, while the ambassador said the security of Israeli civilians is not up for negotiation.
- Lebanon’s ambassador to the US said the date and location of the next meeting with Israel will be announced at a later time, and the preliminary meeting with Israel was good.
- Israelis are reportedly in contact with Washington and European nations to ensure Houthis do not plan to disrupt maritime navigation.
- Turkey’s Foreign Minister discussed US-Iran talks and steps to be taken in the coming days in a call with a Pakistani counterpart, according to a Turkish source.
- US Treasury warned banks in Oman, China, Hong Kong and the UAE about handling Iranian money, according to Fox Business.
- US Central Command said the blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented and that US forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.
- US has intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the start of the blockade, according to WSJ.
- US destroyer interdicted two oil tankers that attempted to leave Iran on Tuesday, according to an official cited by Reuters.
- More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to a WSJ report on Tuesday evening citing US officials.
- Europe drafts a postwar plan to free up Strait of Hormuz without the US, according to WSJ.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks extended gains as the risk-on trade persisted across markets amid greater optimism regarding US/Iran talks, amid reports that the two countries have shown readiness for further negotiations, while US President Trump suggested that talks could take place over the next two days in Pakistan. As such, US indices posted firm gains and the NDX outperformed, while most sectors were in the green with Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology the outperformers. Conversely, Energy was the clear laggard and hit by the notable weakness in the crude complex.
- SPX +1.17% at 6,967, NDX +1.81% at 25,842, DJI +0.66% at 48,536, RUT +1.29% at 2,705.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump’s blockade risks upending the detente with China, according to NYT.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said tariffs could be back at the previous levels by July and he doesn’t think there’s a big risk from US President Trump’s China trip, while he added that the US wants to de-risk, not decouple from China, and noted that China’s global trade surplus is getting excessive.
- Australia and Brunei committed to maintaining open trade flows, while both sides reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening energy and food security.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he is working very hard with House Speaker Johnson, along with Chairman Jim Jordan and Chairman Rick Crawford, to get a clean extension of FISA 702 through the House of Representatives this week.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the underlying economy remains strong and still thinks growth could exceed 3% to 3.5% this year.
- White House Economic Advisor Hassett said real income growth is very high and he is confident the economy will be strong this year.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took its cue from the rally on Wall St amid continued hopes regarding US-Iran talks, while President Trump suggested talks could occur during the next two days.
- ASX 200 eked mild gains, but with upside capped as strength in tech, gold miners and health care was offset by losses in energy and some defensives, while trade was also restricted by a lack of data and drivers.
- Nikkei 225 rallied above the 58,000 level, with the positive risk sentiment facilitated by the recent decline in oil prices and the much stronger-than-expected Machinery Orders.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with the gains in Hong Kong led by tech strength, while oil majors lagged after the recent oil decline. Furthermore, the PBoC continued its meagre daily liquidity efforts through 7-day reverse repo operations, but had announced yesterday to conduct CNY 500bln of 183-day outright reverse repos for today.
- US equity futures paused overnight near yesterday’s best levels amid peace talk hopes.
- European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.4% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY got some slight reprieve after weakening yesterday amid hopes for a solution in the Iran conflict through diplomacy, as US President Trump suggested that US-Iran talks could resume in the next couple of days, and Iran was reportedly considering pausing its Hormuz shipping to avoid derailing talks. Elsewhere, US PPI was softer-than-expected in March, while there were some comments from Fed’s Goolsbee who suggested rate cuts could be delayed until 2027.
- EUR/USD slightly pulled back after briefly reclaiming the 1.1800 status alongside recent dollar weakness, while there were some comments from ECB officials, including Lagarde, who said the ECB is in a good position to respond to the Iran situation. Furthermore, ECB’s Dolenc said the ECB will raise rates if inflation has a longer-lasting effect, and ECB’s Makhlouf said they are focused on delivering the inflation target, as well as noted that if a shock takes inflation off target but not persistently, the ECB should be measured in its response.
- GBP/USD traded sideways after recently stalling beneath the 1.3600 level and with little impact seen from the latest bout of rhetoric from BoE officials, including Governor Bailey, who stated that financial stability is more exposed to political and private pressure.
- USD/JPY rebounded from the prior day’s trough and retested the 159.00 level as the dollar regained some composure, but with a further recovery in the major pair limited following recent oil price declines and stronger-than-expected Machinery Orders data.
- Antipodeans were little changed following recent advances and amid a quiet calendar.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8582 vs exp. 6.8096 (Prev. 6.8593)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures took a breather after advancing yesterday as yields declined alongside lower oil prices and softer-than-expected US PPI data, while Fed’s Goolsbee had also commented that a prolonged Iran war reduces the chances of rate cuts and they may have to wait until 2027 to lower rates.
- Bund futures held on to recent gains but with further upside capped overnight ahead of several ECB speakers and with Bund issuance scheduled later.
- 10yr JGB futures kept afloat but with price action stuck near the 130.00 focal point as demand was contained following stronger-than-expected Machinery Orders, recent decline in oil prices and a BoJ source report that the central bank is considering a sharp increase to its price forecast at this month’s meeting.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were initially constrained after declining yesterday amid hopes for another round of US-Iran talks, which President Trump suggested could take place in the next couple of days. There was also further selling seen shortly after comments from US President Trump, who said in a Fox interview to be aired on Wednesday that he sees the war as being very close to over. Nonetheless, crude futures have since pared the losses and moved into the green for the day, but with demand also limited after the latest private sector inventory data which showed a fairly substantial and surprise build in headline crude stockpiles.
- US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +6.1mln (exp -1.3mln), Distillate -3.4mln (exp. -2.5mln), Gasoline +0.6mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing -1.7mln.
- White House said over 100 empty oil tankers are on their way to US ports to load American crude, and of the 103 empty vessels, 54 are Very Large Crude Carriers capable of transporting approximately 2mln barrels, according to a CBS report.
- US will allow a temporary waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea to expire this week, according to source reports.
- Venezuela’s Interim President Rodriguez called for a long-term energy partnership with the US.
- Spot gold was indecisive overnight after advancing yesterday to above the USD 4,800/oz level as the dollar and yields retreated on US-Iran peace talk optimism.
- Copper futures eked mild gains with early momentum seen alongside the positive global risk appetite.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin slightly gained in somewhat choppy and range-bound trade above the USD 74,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoK Governor nominee Shin said South Korea’s inflation is to accelerate and external risks pose uncertainty, while he sees upward pressure on prices and downward pressure on the economy. Shin also stated that risks may expand further and economic growth may weaken, as well as noted that monetary policy needs to act if there are prolonged inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran war. Furthermore, he is to seek to stabilise prices and financial stability, and will work to internationalise the won.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Feb) 13.6% vs. Exp. -1.1% (Prev. -5.5%, Low. -6.8%, High. 2.0%)
- Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Feb) 24.7% vs. Exp. 8.5% (Prev. 13.7%, Low. 2.8%, High. 13.6%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Explosions were reported in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region.
- Ukraine requested clarifications from Israel after a ship, allegedly belonging to Russia’s “shadow fleet”, docked at the Port of Haifa with a wheat shipment originating from territories Russia seized from Ukraine in the war, according to Axios.
- US and Ukraine reportedly train to counter Russian nuclear space weapons, according to The Telegraph
OTHER
- US President Trump reiterated NATO wasn’t there for us, and won’t be there for us in the future!
- Europe is accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case US President Trump pulls the US out of the treaty, according to WSJ.
- US State Department said Cuba has contributed up to 5,000 fighters for Russia’s war in Ukraine and is providing “diplomatic and political support for Moscow”, according to Axios.
- Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that China is to enhance communications with Russia, and the stability of ties with Russia is valuable.
- Russian President Putin’s visit to China is being prepared, and the timing of the visit will be announced by the Kremlin in due course, according to Kremlin spokesperson Peskov.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Starmer will plan a relaunch and seek to calm Labour nerves and regain momentum after a likely poor set of election results in May, with a King’s Speech that includes reforms to health, the water sector and EU relations, according to FT.
- BoE Governor Bailey said financial stability is more exposed to political and private pressure.
- ECB President Lagarde said the ECB is in a good position to respond to the Iran situation, while she added it would be a mistake to say we need to look through the shock, and it’s just too soon to make such a conclusion.
- ECB’s Dolenc said the ECB will raise rates if inflation has a longer-lasting effect.
- ECB’s Makhlouf said they are focused on delivering the inflation target, and noted that if a shock takes inflation off target but not persistently, the ECB should be measured in response, and that they are not yet seeing changes in consumer behaviour from higher inflation.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
3. CHINA/
CHINA/IRAN/OIL
4.EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIR PLUS NATO
ITALY/ISRAEL
seems that Italy, France and the UK do not understand the criminal nature of Hezbollah and how they must be destroyed. Trump will not be happy!!
(zerohedge)
Italy’s Anti-Israel Opposition Declares ‘Victory’ After Meloni Suspends Defense Pact
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Italy has suspended the automatic renewal of its defense agreement with Israel amid the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran, now ‘paused’ as a two-week ceasefire holds in order to give a chance for talks.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced the significant status change following weeks of tensions over the Israel question, and after other European governments like Spain and France have heaped criticism on Trump’s Operation Epic Fury. “The government, considering the situation we are experiencing, has decided to suspend the automatic renewal of the defense agreement with Israel,” Meloni said during her latest press briefing in Verona.
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto sent a letter to Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirming the suspension of the Italy-Israel memorandum, which governs defense cooperation. The agreement, which has been in effect for many years of the 21st century, oversaw and guided exchange of military equipment and joint technological research between the two countries’ armed forces.
According to more background in the NY Times:
The defense accord, ratified in 2005, established cooperation between the two countries in areas including “defense industry and procurement policy,” importing and exporting military equipment, exchanging technical data and other forms of military collaboration. It has been renewed every five years, and was set for another renewal this month.
Opposition parties had put pressure on the government for over a year to suspend the renewal. Marco Grimaldi, an opposition lawmaker, said the decision was “a victory” for those who had protested Israel’s military offensive in Gaza over the last three years.
Like in Spain, much of the Italian public, especially among the younger demographic, sees no benefit in closely aligning Italy with Israel’s agenda in the region. And anger and criticism of Israel has been on the rise for years, particularly amid the high civilian casualties of the Gaza war.
In the meantime rising energy costs in Europe from the Hormuz closure have only served to intensify scrutiny of Italy’s ban on Russian natural gas imports, imposed after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Responding to calls to revisit Russian gas restrictions, Meloni said, “We must not forget that the economic pressure we have exerted on Russia in recent years is the most effective weapon we have to build peace.”
Meloni’s relations with Washington have also come under fire, and her Tuesday comments were on the defensive: “When you are friends and allies, particularly strategic ones, you must also have the courage to say when you disagree,” she said.
Starting in late March, Italy began blocking some US military aircraft bound for the Middle East from landing at Sigonella Air Base in Sicily. France under Macron has taken some similarly restrictive measures regarding the US military using its airspace related to Iran operations.
Trump has in the recent past said he had been “very shocked” that Meloni has very publicly rejected assisting the United States in the war against Iran, and by her “letting America do all the work” for Italy, “which gets its oil from Iran.” Meloni has more recently said it is “unacceptable” for Trump to attack Pope Leo XIV over the Vatican’s anti-war stance.
“Do people like her? I can’t believe it,” Trump said in a recent interview, adding: “I thought she had courage. I was wrong.”
end
HUNGARY
not good! Europe will continue its freefall!
(zerohedge)
After Orbán Loss, Polish MEP Warns EU Set To “Subjugate Everything And Everyone” As VDL Moves Quickly To Abolish Veto Power
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 02:00 AM
On the back of Péter Magyar’s victory in Hungary, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says the EU needs to work on getting rid of member states’ veto powers.
For many who backed Viktor Orbán, one of their greatest fears was exactly what von der Leyen is now advancing: an unconstrained EU able to take action on foreign policy, health, and migration without the threat of a veto.
It is widely assumed that the incoming prime minister of Hungary will seek a fast resolution of Brussels’ key issues with Hungary in order to unlock some €35 billion in funding. While Magyar is still seen as right of center and has already insisted border protection will remain a top priority, he has also made it clear that he will work to build a more constructive relationship with Brussels and make Hungary more a part of the European community.
One way Viktor Orbán previously served as a constant thorn in the side of other member states was via use of the veto power, namely to block aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.
Over the past four years, Hungary’s constant blocking of EU measures drove many to suggest a move to qualified majority voting.
Now, with Magyar’s win and Orbán gone, von der Leyen says the “momentum” is here to make that move.
“Moving to qualified majority voting in foreign policy is an important way to avoid systemic blockages, as we have seen in the past,” she said.
She urged governments, which would have to agree to any change, to “use the momentum now,” she told press yesterday.
She also made it clear that “Hungary is coming back to the European path.”
One conservative Polish MEP from the New Hope party posted her reaction that the Commission president was losing no time in burying member state rights to oppose EU initiatives.
“For the EU’s pseudo-elites, it’s secondary whether the new Hungarian government of Orbán will buy fewer raw materials from Russia or quickly rubber-stamp the next sanctions. The main goals of the Eurocrats are different—barely have the elections wrapped up, and the EC President is already champing at the bit to push the topic of abolishing the veto right for Poland in foreign policy matters,” wrote Ewa Zajączkowska-Hernik.
“Subjugate everything and everyone, create mechanisms that turn countries like Poland into just another insignificant province. All wrapped in the sweet packaging of delightful slogans about unity with everyone,” she added, emphasizing the importance of future member state elections.
end
EU/RUSSIA/UKRAINE
KORYBKO
this has no chance ever to be repaid!!
Is The EU’s €90 Billion Loan To Ukraine Meant To Buy Time For The Return Of Democrats
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Orban’s “democratic ouster” is expected to remove Hungary’s procedural opposition to the EU’s planned €90 billion loan to Ukraine that’ll be financed by members raising common debt.
RT published a detailed article about this plan here last December, which was a compromise for financing this loan after the bloc failed to reach a consensus to either outright confiscate some of Russia’s frozen assets for giving to Ukraine or use at least some of them as collateral for a loan to it. Readers can learn more here and here.
If everything goes according to plan, and Bloomberg reported that the bloc plans to move swiftly after Hungary held everything up for several months already, then this move risks funding a forever war.
Hopes of a military breakthrough along the front or a diplomatic breakthrough in US-mediated talks have yet to materialize, so the pace of Russia’s on-the-ground advance remains glacial, thus meaning that it could take years to achieve Russia’s reported minimum goal of obtaining control over all of Donbass.
Funding two-thirds of the Ukrainian budget for the next two years per the EU’s goal would likely lead to another two-year round being agreed in order to encourage the US to continue its military aid.
Ever since last summer, the US no longer donates arms to Ukraine but instead sells them to NATO, which then transfers them there.
Even if Trump suspends these sales, so long as the Ukrainian budget is financed and nothing major changes, then it might hold out long enough for him to change his mind again.
To be sure, Ukraine cannot fight forever since even Zelensky’s new Chief of Staff Kirill Budanov recently admitted that it faces “a huge, huge problem” after new Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov revealed that over 2 million Ukrainians are dodging the draft, which seriously complicates operations at the front.
There’s also always the chance that Putin will turn the special operation into a formal war in which he’d no longer care about civilian casualties in an attempt to decisively end the conflict on Russia’s terms.
There are two competing schools of thought about why he hasn’t yet done so.
One speculates that he doesn’t want to inadvertently risk an escalation with the US that could easily spiral into World War III…
…while the other is that he still truly considers Russians and Ukrainians to be one people like he explained at length in summer 2021’s magnum opus, ergo his reluctance to see their civilians suffer.
At any rate, the forever war scenario assumes that Putin won’t do this, which can’t be taken for granted.
Nevertheless, the EU operates under the assumption that he won’t do so, which explains why it plans to move swiftly to approve Ukraine’s €90 billion loan and still buys arms from the US for transfer to that country.
This not only perpetuates the risk that tensions spiral out of control but also perpetuates the EU’s energy insecurity amidst the ongoing crisis caused by the Third Gulf War since an end to the conflict could hypothetically result in the resumption of Russian energy exports to the EU to its citizens’ benefit.
The EU’s unstated goal is to perpetuate the conflict till at least 2029 in the hope that the Democrats will regain control of the White House and resume the US’ Biden-era Ukrainian policy.
Even though Europeans will economically suffer till then, not to mention more Russians and Ukrainians dying, the bloc is willing to pay these costs in pursuit of its ideologically driven goal of inflicting a strategic defeat upon Russia. Ultimately, however, the conflict might end up strategically defeating the EU instead.
end
EUROPE/STRAIT OF HORMUZ
????
Europe Drafts Pie In The Sky Plan To Free Up Hormuz Without ‘Belligerent’ Parties
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 05:45 AM
This is quite the ambitious headline revealing the latest ‘plan’ for Hormuz to come out of Europe, as it sits on the sidelines watching the US get potentially bogged down in the region following a month of heavy airstrikes on Iran: Europe drafts postwar plan to free up Strait of Hormuz without US, WSJ reports.
This is apparently a plan for after the main crisis is over, amid the strait still being blockaded (with the each warring side insisting it is they in control of the strategic chokepoint waterway). It seems the main idea is to eventually take the United States out of the equation, allowing only for the ‘neutral’ countries to free up and clean the Hormuz Strait.
But the whole thing is very strange – on the one hand, it purports to keep one of the key belligerents, namely the United States, at bay – while on the other envisioning European/NATO military ships engaged in freedom navigation operations, including some mine-clearing.
For example, there is this line from the Journal report: “French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday the plan is for an international defensive mission that doesn’t include the ‘belligerent’ parties, meaning the US, Israel and Iran. European diplomats familiar with the plan say European ships wouldn’t be under American command.”
According to a Newsquawk summary of the WSJ main highlights:
—European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine-clearing and other military vessels. But the plan would only come after the war and may exclude the US.
—Some differences must still be worked: French diplomats think that any US involvement in the operation would make it less palatable to Tehran, while British officials worry that not including the Americans will anger Trump and limit the operation’s scope.
—The plan has three broad aims:
1) put logistics in place to ensure the hundreds of ships currently stuck in the strait can leave.
2) Employ a major demining operation to clear the way for a far larger number of ships to use a broader part of the strait.
3) Removing Iranian mines in Hormuz is crucial to getting ships going again.
The reality is that this supposed plan brings things back full circle to problem #1... as it’s not as if either Iran, or the United States, will simply shrug and cede control so that a European military coalition can step in and take over.
Which side will ever actually agree to this? The obvious answer, at least for the time being and foreseeable future is… nobody.
And then there’s the question of what leverage or force will Europe employ to assert its military presence in the strait in order to keep all parties in line… some mere harsh language and strong words?
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL AND USA VS IRAN
ISRAEL/USA/IRAN/LAST 24 HOURS/TUESDAY NIGHT
Over 20 US-Approved Ships Pass Through Hormuz, As Trump Eyes Jump-Starting Next Pakistan Peace Talks
Tuesday, Apr 14, 2026 – 03:55 PM
Summary
- CENTCOM: “During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade & 6 merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman,” it said. WSJ: 20 US-approved ships have passed, which have not visited Iranian ports.
- Diplomacy is not yet dead, as Bloomberg reports Iran is mulling a short-term pause to shipments through Hormuz Strait. Trump tells NYP talks could happen again in two days in Pakistan.
- Mediators are scrambling to put together another round of US-Iran talks in the coming days: Iran is reportedly offering a 5-year moratorium on nuclear program, while US demands 20.
- Saudis are among those calling for an end to the US blockade of the Hormuz Strait, amid fears the Houthis could shut down Bab al-Mandeb strait. Chinese ship testing America’s Hormuz blockade appears to U-turn. North Korea said to be negotiating tolls, safe passage with Tehran.
- Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejects upcoming talks between the Lebanese government and Israel, which are set for 11am in Washington, DC on Tuesday.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 60% · No 40%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Over 20 US-Approved Ships Pass Through Hormuz: WSJ
WSJ writes by close of day Tuesday: “More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to two U.S. officials. While commercial traffic is still a fraction of what it was before the war, the flow of vessels is an improvement through a critical chokepoint.”
These are of course vessels ‘approved’ and which transited via US military coordination – and this after earlier this week a couple of sanctioned or nonapproved vessels began making their way out before deciding to turn back. More per WSJ:
The ships that crossed the strait in the last 24 hours include cargo, container and tanker vessels going into and out of the Persian Gulf, one of the officials said. Some ships have traveled without their transponders on to minimize the risk of Iranian attacks. The threat of Iranian attacks and sea mines has deterred most vessels from trying to sail through the narrow waterway during the war.
It remains that ships which aren’t under sanction, and which are not visiting Iran’s ports can pass through the American-imposed blockade. But oil prices and markets remain unimpressed, as this is not happening at a fast enough rate, and given the presence of mines and the lingering Iranian drone and missile threat to maritime traffic, it’s not as if the proverbial flood gates of tanker traffic will open up anytime soon.
CENTCOM Gives First Major Blockade Update, Trump Hints at Talks
US Central Command (CENTCOM) has put out its first major statement and update since the Trump-ordered US naval blockade of the Hormuz Strait went into effect.
“During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and 6 merchant vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman,” it said.
IRAN TALKS COULD BE HAPPENING OVER NEXT TWO DAYS IN PAKISTAN: TRUMP TO NY POST
US WILL ALLOW TEMPORARY WAIVER OF SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL ON THE SEA TO EXPIRE THIS WEEK
“The blockade is being enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” it added, noting that over 10,000 American military personnel are currently involved in the blockade mission. The regional US command center also published an infographic confirming which types of the various navy warships are deployed.
However, RT’s correspondent is on the ground and has given a contrasting report, running up against US claims:
South Korea said to be Negotiating Tolls, Hormuz Passage with Iran
Washington has been urging countries with stranded tankers near Iran not to pay money to Tehran to allow them through the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Various tanker and maritime industry firms have also been vocally against this.
However, amid a 2-week US-Iran ceasefire, South Korea is reportedly negotiating with Iran the pass ships through Hormuz as a temporary solution. Iran state-linked Fars reports, “The South Korean Ship Owners’ Association has also proposed to pay tolls for passing through the Strait of Hormuz to Iran as a short-term solution.”
As yet, there’s been no confirmation of this from Seoul officials, and at the start of the month they were actively denying earlier reports that South Korea was willing to pay tolls to get its over couple dozen stranded ships through. If it happens, there would likely follow condemnation from the White House over this ‘compromise’ from a US ally.
Iran Could Pause Hormuz Shipping, As Chinese Tanker U-Turns
Bloomberg says Tuesday in a fresh report that “Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks, according to a person familiar with the Tehran’s deliberations.”
“The potential pause reflects a desire to avoid immediate escalation at a sensitive diplomatic juncture as Washington and Tehran sort logistics for another face-to-face meeting, the person said, asking not to be identified as the deliberations are private,” continues Bloomberg. It adds, “Holding back maritime activity for several days is seen as one possible, pragmatic step to prevent an incident that could undermine the fragile efforts to revive discussions, people familiar with the matter said.”
This would be seen as short-term de-escalation, and suggests that Tehran indeed still has the desire of taking a hopeful, pragmatic approach – rather than returning the all out war by the close of the temporary ceasefire. No one is willing to completely shut the door on all diplomacy, and the bombs have been silent across the Gulf and in Iran and Israel. Per latest emerging reports:
The Nasdaq 100 looked set to notch its longest streak of gains since 2021 as optimism that the US and Iran are considering another round of peace talks pushed oil lower and lifted stocks globally.
Chinese ship testing America’s Hormuz blockade appears to U-turn: Rich Starry was blacklisted by Washington in 2023 for helping Tehran evade energy sanctions.
More tracking data via MarineTraffic:
5-Years vs. 20-Year Nuclear Moratorium
More info and color has been added in the wake of failed talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan, per The New York Times citing officials from both countries. Iran signaled Monday it would halt uranium enrichment for up to five years. The Trump administration rejected the offer, according to two senior Iranian officials and one US official who spoke to the Times.
The US position, shaped in part by Vice President JD Vance, calls for a roughly 20-year suspension. Vance has argued such a timeframe is necessary to permanently limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities. “The Iranians, in a formal response sent on Monday, said they would agree to up to five years, according to two senior Iranian officials and one U.S. official. Trump has rejected that offer, the U.S. official said,” writes NY Times.
“The official said the U.S. has also asked Iran to remove highly enriched uranium from the country, and the Iranians have insisted the fuel stays inside Iran. But they have offered to dilute it significantly, so that it could not be used to produce a nuclear weapon,” the report adds.
Sides Could Return to Islamabad for Talks
This behind the scenes back-and-forth suggests that the mediated talks might not be entirely over, also as the clock ticks away on the initial 2-week ceasefire, now a week in. US and Iranian negotiating teams plan to return to Pakistan later this week to resume talks aimed at ending the Gulf war, Pakistani and Iranian officials said Tuesday, as cited in Reuters. Other reports say the talks could be hosted in another venue.
However, US officials have not confirmed the plans, and the reality is that in Islamabad the two sides demands were very far apart, having reportedly finally collapsed on the nuclear issue.
Israel-Lebanon talks are taking a separate track, set to begin in Washington Tuesday, but Hezbollah has rejected this process – with only the Lebanese government represented.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron is among those calling on Washington and Tehran to urgently resume negotiations to end the war, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “without controls or tolls, as soon as possible.” Iran is reportedly charging steep tolls to let a handful of ‘friendly’ countries’ vessels through – a situation which President Trump has warned against.
Saudis Push Trump To Call Off Hormuz Blockade
The NY Times has on Tuesday highlighted that “Questions over the status of the U.S. military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz persisted on Tuesday, as tracking data showed that several ships had passed through the waterway, including some that had departed from Iran.”
The Wall Street Journal reported Monday evening that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is urging the Trump administration to reverse its newly implemented blockade of Iranian-linked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, on immediate fears that Iranian escalation could halt Red Sea traffic. On Sunday, a senior adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran has “large, untouched levers” to respond to such a blockade.
Arab officials who spoke to the Journal said Iran could retaliate by shutting down the Bab al-Mandeb, a 20-mile-wide, 70-mile-long choke point linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Iran could do so by leveraging the Houthis, the political and military organization that controls much of Yemen.
Saudi Arabia recently has been able to get its oil exports back up to their prewar level of around seven million barrels a day despite the blockage in the strategic strait by piping its crude across the desert to the Red Sea. Those supplies would be at risk if the Red Sea’s exit route were closed as well. — WSJ
“If Iran does want to shut down Bab al-Mandeb, the Houthis are the obvious partner to do it, and their response to the Gaza conflict demonstrates that they have the capacity to do it,” Adam Baron, an expert on Yemen at the New America policy institute, told the Journal.
More Geopolitical Latest
via Newsquawk…
- The next round of talks between the United States and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to an Iranian embassy official in Pakistan.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said it has offered to host a second round of U.S.–Iran negotiations, but no date or time has been set.
- Pakistani journalist Mallick said, “While Islamabad has offered to host the next round of in person talks between US and Iran, which could be held at a working level, to my understanding, date and venue for the next round has not been finalised as yet”.
- The United States and Iran are discussing another round of face-to-face talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire after Islamabad negotiations ended without a deal.
- Officials aim to meet again before the two-week ceasefire expires next week, according to Clash report.
- The Associated Press reported that a second round of talks is likely and could take place on Thursday.
- U.S. Vice President JD Vance said progress was made in talks with Iran and stated that things did not go wrong.
- Vance said Iran moved in the U.S. direction but not far enough.
- Vance said the ball is in Iran’s court and that U.S. red lines were clearly communicated.
- The United States and Iran left the door open to further dialogue after tense Islamabad talks.
- A source said the sides came “very close” to an agreement and were “80% there” before hitting unresolved issues.
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told French President Emmanuel Macron in a Monday phone call that Iran will negotiate only under international law.
- Pezeshkian said unreasonable U.S. demands blocked an agreement in weekend talks.
- He said a lack of U.S. goodwill and maximalist positions prevented finalizing a deal in Islamabad, according to IRNA.
- Pezeshkian said diplomacy remains the preferred path to resolve disputes.
- An Iranian National Security Committee spokesman said the end of the truce should not lead to its extension, according to Al Mayadeen.
- The U.S. aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush is sailing off the coast of Africa toward the Middle East to join Operation Epic Fury, according to two U.S. officials cited by The Wall Street Journal.
- Saudi Arabia is pressing the United States to drop its Hormuz blockade.
- Gulf energy exporters warn Iran could escalate by closing the Bab al-Mandeb, according to The Wall Street Journal.
- Alarms sounded in the Galilee Panhandle over concerns of potential UAV infiltration.
- A Lebanese source said, “The official mandate of Lebanon’s ambassador in Washington is limited to pursuing a ceasefire with Israel”, according to Al Jazeera.
- Switzerland is ready to support diplomatic initiatives between the United States and Iran.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that preventing further fighting is critical.
- Lavrov said Moscow is on high alert to assist in a settlement.
- Araghchi warned of dangerous consequences from U.S. actions.
- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors for talks on Tuesday.
- The talks aim to secure a ceasefire, Hezbollah disarmament, and a peace agreement, according to Axios.
- A meeting between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors will take place Tuesday at 18:00 EDT / 23:00 BST, according to Al Jazeera citing Israeli Channel 15.
- Chinese President Xi Jinping issued four proposals to maintain peace in the Middle East, according to Chinese media.
- UK Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Washington.
- Lammy urged that the Iran ceasefire hold and emphasized the importance of free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
END
Jerusalem Post/Middle East/Iran News
Iran less likely to compromise in US talks as its isolation grows, analyst warns
The collapse of US-Iran talks is casting doubt on the ceasefire, suggesting it may be a fragile pause rather than a path to diplomacy.
A billboard with a graphic design about the Strait of Hormuz on a building in Tehran, Iran, April 13, 2026(photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)ByGABRIEL COLODRO/THE MEDIA LINEAPRIL 14, 2026 16:14Updated: APRIL 14, 2026 17:21
The collapse of US-Iran talks after a full day of negotiations is reinforcing concerns that the current ceasefire may be less a diplomatic opening than a fragile pause shaped by competing strategic calculations.
For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org
After nearly a full day of negotiations, talks between the United States and Iran ended without an agreement, underscoring the deep divide between the two sides and raising new questions about whether diplomacy can still play a meaningful role under the current ceasefire framework.
For Janatan Sayeh, an Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the outcome was not unexpected. “For a lot of us who’ve been watching this, of course, this does not come as a surprise,” he said, speaking to The Media Line. “I have never seen the two sides to be this far apart from each other.”
Sayeh pointed to a pattern that has recurred in recent rounds of diplomacy. “We’ve seen this happen at least twice before in the past couple of years,” he said, recalling earlier efforts in 2025 and earlier this year. In those cases, he said, Washington “opened up the field as much as they could,” even offering concessions, but “Tehran was not moving any of its red line.”
“The more the Islamic Republic feels threatened, the more it’s isolated and cornered, the less likely it is for it to provide concessions, because it sees it as a sign of weakness,” he added, describing a dynamic that continues to shape Tehran’s behavior.
Whether the latest round of talks was ever positioned to succeed remains an open question. Sayeh suggested that both sides had reasons to engage, at least in the short term. “Any negotiation really needs at least an extent of optimism for it to lead anywhere,” he said.
At the same time, he offered a more pragmatic reading of the timing. “Both sides needed a bit of time,” he said. On one hand, he noted, the American administration sought to calm markets and project control. On the other hand, Iran “needed a bit of time to regroup, re-strategize, restructure their command center” following sustained pressure.
Overlap of interests may not be enough
That overlap of interests may help explain why a ceasefire was reached, but it does not necessarily point to a path forward.
“What’s really interesting about this round of negotiations… is the fact that Tehran is viewing the ceasefire as a victory,” Sayeh said.
That perception is not occurring in isolation. Messaging inside Iran has framed the ceasefire not as a pause but as a strategic success, portraying the regime as having absorbed the strikes while forcing Washington into negotiations. Against that backdrop, Sayeh’s assessment helps explain the lack of flexibility on the Iranian side. “Because of that, their ambitions are growing,” he said.
According to Sayeh, that shift in perception is already translating into more assertive positions. He pointed to rhetoric around control of the Strait of Hormuz and attempts to expand the scope of negotiations beyond the nuclear issue. “We’ve never expected them to say any ceasefire… would also have to dictate how Israel treats terror proxies such as Hezbollah,” he said, describing what he sees as an emboldened posture.
On the ground, the situation reflects that tension. Rather than a stable arrangement, Sayeh described the current moment as inherently unstable. “This is more a fragile truce than a ceasefire,” he said.
He pointed to continued activity even after the announcement. “It’s the first time that as soon as a ceasefire was announced, 24 hours later, Iran was still bombing the Persian Gulf states,” he said. “That was a signal from Tehran that we’re not going to abide by your ceasefire rules.”
The message, in his view, is deliberate. “We want to ensure that the world knows that we can reignite escalations at the time of our choosing,” he said.
At the same time, he suggested Tehran is closely reading Washington’s intentions. “They are sensing that the Washington administration is really keen on concluding this war,” he said. “And as soon as Tehran senses any form of desperation, they’re immediately going to exploit that.”
That gap in perception extends to the negotiations themselves. “I don’t think the two sides are exactly understanding what their leverages are,” he said.
Asked whether Iran was seriously engaging in talks, Sayeh was direct. “I don’t think they ever seriously engaged,” he said.
Instead, he described a dual strategy that combines military positioning with messaging. “Of course, they’re trying to buy time,” he said, but added that the process also serves a domestic purpose, showing the Iranian public that “we are still here negotiating with them on our own terms.”
That messaging is reinforced by the composition of the delegation itself. “A lot of them are actually PR professionals,” he said, suggesting the talks are being used to project control internally as much as to engage externally.
On the American side, Sayeh described a consistent pattern in how pressure is applied. “What this administration does is first signal diplomacy and genuinely exhaust all options on the diplomatic front,” he said. “But after Washington thinks it has exhausted all avenues, then it escalates.”
That approach, he said, is designed to offer a way out while maintaining leverage. “On one hand, you have an opportunity to de-escalate… but should you fail to capitalize on that, there’s going to be repercussions.”
The question now is whether that next phase is approaching. Sayeh suggested that any shift would likely involve a change in the nature of the military campaign. “What I’m looking out for is if they’re going to shift… whether they’re genuinely going to bring the war within Iranian territory,” he said.
Even if diplomacy continues in some form, he cautioned that time may be working against both sides. “The more the ceasefire lasts, the more challenging it becomes to reignite,” he said, noting the growing difficulty of justifying renewed escalation after a prolonged pause.
At the same time, delaying action carries its own risks. “If you know for a fact talks have failed… time is not on your side,” he said.
Looking ahead, Sayeh warned that any renewed escalation is unlikely to be gradual. “Should there be a new military escalation, it would have to be decisive,” he said.
He also raised doubts about whether diplomacy could easily resume after another round of fighting. “The question would still linger as to who’s going to be left for Washington to negotiate with,” he said.
Ultimately, he argued that the current approach may be reaching its limits. “The idea that you can wound it and scale back and hope everything will be okay is going to be very, very counterproductive,” he said.
For now, the ceasefire remains in place, but the dynamics described by Sayeh suggest a situation defined less by de-escalation than by a temporary pause – one in which both diplomacy and military pressure continue to operate without a clear convergence point.
END
ISRAEL/USA/IRAN/UPDATES WEDNESDAY MORNING
War ‘Very Close’ To Over, Trump Says, As Iran Ceasefire Extension Reportedly Advances, But More US Troops Deploy
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 08:35 AM
Summary
- The Iran war is “very close to over” with authorities in Tehran eager to agree a peace deal, Trump says, adding: “We’ve beaten them militarily.”
- AP/Bloomberg reporting the two sides have an “in principle agreement” to pursue further diplomacy; however, this is batted down as ‘unconfirmed’ by Tehran & a US official.
- The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in coming days: WaPo
- Trump claims China “very happy” the US is permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz, also Xi told him Beijing was not sending weapons/defense items to Tehran.
- Significant Lebanon fighting continues: Israel issues more evacuation orders, moving into south; Tehran outraged, threatens Red Sea shipping.
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‘Very Close’ To War Over, Diplomacy in Reach: Trump
The latest from Trump: The Iran war is “very close to over” with authorities in Tehran eager to agree a peace deal, President Trump claimed in a fresh interview broadcast Wednesday. “We’ve beaten them militarily, totally,” Trump told Fox Business in a prerecorded interview. “I think it’s close to over, I view it as very close to over… If I pulled up stakes right now it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country, and we’re not finished.” He added: “We’ll see what happens, I think they want to make a deal very badly.”
This as the Associated Press has reported the US and Iran are closer to extending a ceasefire and restarting negotiations, even amid the intensifying standoff over the Strait of Hormuz as the US Navy has blockaded it for all shipping leaving Iranian ports or with ties, or under sanction.
The two sides have an “in principle agreement” to pursue further diplomacy after last weekend’s failed Islamabad talks. Trump on Tuesday had optimistically cited that the next round could be just two days away. Mediators are said to be pushing for a compromise on outstanding issues including Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program before the April 7 truce expires next week, the news agency said – as they also eye the extension off the initial two weeks.
However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has made clear the reports about the ceasefire extension are not confirmed, while Axios’ Barak Ravid similarly writes – US official tells me: “The US has not agreed to an extension of the ceasefire. There is continued engagement between the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal.”
Iran meanwhile is warning that it sees a prolonging of the US blockade as “a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire,” a military spokesman said, as featured state TV. Iran’s military “will not permit any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea” if it continues, the spokesman added.
IRAN’S BAGHAEI: NO SPECIFIC DAY SET FOR NEW US NEGOTIATIONS
Trump on China
President Trump says he asked his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping not to supply weapons to Iran, and Xi replied he was not doing so. “I had heard that China’s giving weapons to, I mean – you’re seeing it all over the place – to Iran,” Trump also said in the aforementioned Fox Business interview.
“And I wrote him a letter asking him not to do that, and he wrote me a letter saying that essentially he’s not doing that.” Major media outlets previously reported that US intelligence indicated China was preparing to ship advanced weaponry to Iran. Beijing’s public rejection of the “baseless smear” – as the Foreign Minister called it – has indeed been swift and vehement.
With oil prices remaining elevated, with Brent crude trading about 33% higher than before the start of the war, Trump has issued a new Truth Social claiming China is “very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz.” This even though in many cases it is China bound tankers being blocked and turned back by the US naval armada. “This situation will never happen again,” Trump added. He is set to meet with Xi in Beijing on May 14-15. On this he wrote that “President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are going working together smartly, and very well!” But then Trump says “But remember, we are very good at fighting, if we have to…”
More Troops Sent to Mideast
The Washington Post is out with a new report of more troops being sent to the theatre. “The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, as the Trump administration attempts to pressure Iran into a deal that could end the weeks long conflict there while considering the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if a fragile ceasefire deal does not hold.”
Already a combined estimated ten thousand US sailors, Marines, and personnel – on at least a dozen US warships, are maintaining the Trump-ordered blockade on Hormuz. So Washington continues to try and build leverage, also with the announced additional forces being prepped, while also sounding optimistic on a potential peace deal – thought to two sides are very far apart especially on the nuclear issue.
Trump has at times still shrugged off the importance of a final peace deal, having told ABC News that while an official peace agreement may not be necessary, “I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild.” He had said, “They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals.”
Tehran (& Houthis) Threaten Red Sea Trade as Lebanon Fighting Persists
Iran’s army warned it will block trade through the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Sea of Oman if the US naval blockade on Iranian ports continues. In a statement carried by Iranian state television, the head of the military’s central command center said the “powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea.”
According to more via Al Jazeera, he added that Iran will “act decisively to defend its national sovereignty and its interests.” One key factor which has outraged Iran is Israel’s continued major attacks on Lebanon, after last Wednesday’s massive aerial attack on Beirut and elsewhere which left over 300 dead. Israel on Wednesday said that Hezbollah fired 40 rockets into Israel earlier in the morning.
An Israeli drone strike on the Jiyeh road, Lebanon
More Geopolitical Headlines
via Newsquawk…
- Effort to extend US-Iran ceasefire has made progress, AP reports citing official; mediators aim to extend the ceasefire for at least another two weeks; both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.
- Discussions are underway regarding possible extension of temporary ceasefire between Iran and US, according to Arab diplomatic sources cited by Russia on Wednesday and being reported by Chinese press CCTV.
- However, US President Trump said it could end either way, but thinks a deal is preferable because then Iran can rebuild, also said he isn’t thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn’t think it will be necessary, according to reported citing ABC reporter on X.
- The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reports citing US officials; in a bid to pressure Iran while mulling the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.
- US President Trump said it’s “very possible” a deal with Iran will be reached by the time the King visits the US later this month (27-29th April), Sky News reported.
- US President Trump said he views the war being very close to over, according to Fox News.
- US VP Vance said we are negotiating with Iran and ceasefire is holding, adds Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal.
- Feel good about where we are.
- Lot of mistrust between the US and Iran, can’t be solved overnight.
- US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of talks with Iranian officials should negotiations lead to another face-to-face meeting before the ceasefire expires next week, according to sources familiar cited by CNN.
- Pakistan leadership’s overseas tour until April 18th dims prospects of US-Iran talks in Islamabad before April 18th, Pakistani journalist Mallick reported.
- Iran is to use alternative ports to those in southern Iran to bypass the US blockade in the Strait, Mehr News reported.
- An Iranian VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier), which was on the US sanctions list, entered the waters of Iran past the US blockade, Fars reported.
- Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war, according to an FT investigation.
- US Central Command said blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented and that US forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.
- US has intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the start of the blockade, according to WSJ.
- New satellite images show Iran digging for missile launchers trapped underground amid a ceasefire, according to CNN.
- More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, WSJ reported, citing US officials.
- US destroyer interdicted two oil tankers that attempted to leave Iran on Tuesday, according to an official cited by Reuters.
- US President Trump reiterates on Truth Social “NATO wasn’t there for us, and they won’t be there for us in the future!”.
- Europe is accelerating a NATO fallback plan in case US President Trump pulls US out of the treaty, according to WSJ.
- US Pentagon is likely to trim its Iran wall funding request, according to WSJ citing Senator Coons who is the top democrat on the Senate appropriations defense committee.
- END
IRAN/ISRAEL USA/LATE MORNING
Negotiators Make ‘Progress’ Toward 2nd Round Of Pakistan Talks, While More US Troops Prepped To Deploy Near Iran
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 10:35 AM
Summary
- The Iran war is “very close to over” with authorities in Tehran eager to agree a peace deal, Trump says, adding: “We’ve beaten them militarily.” Axios cites ‘progress’ toward framework to end war.
- AP/Bloomberg reporting the two sides have an “in principle agreement” to pursue further diplomacy; however, this is batted down as ‘unconfirmed’ by Tehran & a US official.
- The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in coming days: WaPo
- Trump claims China “very happy” the US is permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz, also Xi told him Beijing was not sending weapons/defense items to Tehran.
- Significant Lebanon fighting continues: Israel issues more evacuation orders, moving into south; Tehran outraged, threatens Red Sea shipping. Unconfirmed reports of one-week Lebanon ceasefire about to take effect.
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Yes 33% · No 68%
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* * *
‘Progress’ Reported in US-Iran Contacts
Axios reports that US and Iranian negotiators “made progress in talks on Tuesday” while moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war, according to two US officials. The headline briefly pushed oil lower. This comes as Pakistan’s top general headed a high-ranking political-security delegation from Pakistan to convey the US message and plan the second round of talks to Tehran. Per details in Axios:
- “They were on the phone and backchanneling with all the countries and they are getting closer,” the U.S. official said.
- A second U.S. official confirmed progress was made Tuesday.
- “We want to make a deal. And parts of their government want to make a deal. Now the trick is to get the whole of government over there to make the deal,” a third U.S. official said.
Meanwhile, state Tasnim is reporting that Pakistan is getting ready to host the second round of Iran-US talks.
Lebanon Ceasefire Imminent?
The Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen channel, citing a senior Iranian source, reports that a ceasefire in Lebanon will begin tonight. “The duration of the ceasefire will be one week and will extend until the end of the ceasefire period between Iran and the United States.”
However, there’s been no confirmation of this from Israel or the US, or in Israeli media. The Lebanese government just met with Israeli officials for Rubio-sponsored talks in Washington yesterday, but there was no word of a definitive ceasefire coming from the meeting, and currently Hezbollah and Israel are not directly talking at all. It remains unclear whether this could be a sign of Lebanese officials getting Hezbollah on board with a pause in fighting.
Meanwhile, two fresh notes on the question of advancing a second round of US-Iran negotiations:
- Iranian media reported that Field Marshal Asim Munir, Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army, headed a high-ranking political-security delegation from Pakistan to convey the US message and plan the second round of talks, and is scheduled to meet with officials of the Islamic Republic.
- Regional mediators are trying to extend the U.S.–Iran cease-fire and restart talks after failed negotiations in Islamabad, but no date or venue has been set. A new round is unlikely before Pakistan completes its regional diplomatic
‘Very Close’ To War Over, Diplomacy in Reach: Trump
The latest from Trump: The Iran war is “very close to over” with authorities in Tehran eager to agree a peace deal, President Trump claimed in a fresh interview broadcast Wednesday. “We’ve beaten them militarily, totally,” Trump told Fox Business in a prerecorded interview. “I think it’s close to over, I view it as very close to over… If I pulled up stakes right now it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country, and we’re not finished.” He added: “We’ll see what happens, I think they want to make a deal very badly.”
This as the Associated Press has reported the US and Iran are closer to extending a ceasefire and restarting negotiations, even amid the intensifying standoff over the Strait of Hormuz as the US Navy has blockaded it for all shipping leaving Iranian ports or with ties, or under sanction.
The two sides have an “in principle agreement” to pursue further diplomacy after last weekend’s failed Islamabad talks. Trump on Tuesday had optimistically cited that the next round could be just two days away. Mediators are said to be pushing for a compromise on outstanding issues including Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program before the April 7 truce expires next week, the news agency said – as they also eye the extension off the initial two weeks.
However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has made clear the reports about the ceasefire extension are not confirmed, while Axios’ Barak Ravid similarly writes – US official tells me: “The US has not agreed to an extension of the ceasefire. There is continued engagement between the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal.”
Iran meanwhile is warning that it sees a prolonging of the US blockade as “a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire,” a military spokesman said, as featured state TV. Iran’s military “will not permit any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman or the Red Sea” if it continues, the spokesman added.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA LATE AFTERNOON
Iran Halts All Petrochem Exports While Official Signals Compromise Strait Passage Opening, As Negotiators Cite ‘Progress’
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 02:15 PM
Summary
- The Iran war is “very close to over” with authorities in Tehran eager to agree a peace deal, Trump says, adding: “We’ve beaten them militarily.” Axios cites ‘progress’ toward framework to end war. Iran state media says halt to all petrochemical exports, RTRS cites possible compromise on strait passage.
- AP/Bloomberg reporting the two sides have an “in principle agreement” to pursue further diplomacy; however, this is batted down as ‘unconfirmed’ by Tehran & a US official.
- The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in coming days: WaPo
- Trump claims China “very happy” the US is permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz, also Xi told him Beijing was not sending weapons/defense items to Tehran.
- Significant Lebanon fighting continues: Israel issues more evacuation orders, moving into south; Tehran outraged, threatens Red Sea shipping. Unconfirmed reports of one-week Lebanon ceasefire about to take effect.
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* * *
Big Iran Overture in the Works?
A status quo compromise emerging? The latest to hit the newswires:
IRAN COULD CONSIDER SHIPS BEING ABLE TO SAIL THROUGH OMAN SIDE OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITHOUT INTERFERENCE OR ATTACK AS PART OF A DEAL WITH THE US: REUTERS, CITING SOURCE CLOSE TO TEHRAN
IRAN WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER ITS WATERS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND OMAN WILL DECIDE ABOUT ITS OWN SIDE OF THE WATERWAY – SOURCE CLOSE TO TEHRAN
Iran has just signaled willingness to allow strait traffic pass unconditionally on the Oman side of the strait, perhaps as a face-saving measure, amid talk of a 2nd Pakistan peace summit being put together, as a potential uneasy status quo emerges.
Iran Halts Petrochemical Exports
Is Trump’s blockade working?
IRAN HALTS PETROCHEMICAL EXPORTS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE: ISNA
CNBC also in a breaking headline writes: Iran halts all petrochemical exports ‘until further notice,’ Iranian state media reports. This comes after a new Pentagon warning to all vessels stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.
CENTCOM Updates Tanker Numbers amid Blockade
CENTCOM provides a Wednesday update: “During the first 48 hours of the U.S. blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, no vessels have made it past U.S. forces. Additionally, 9 vessels have complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around and return toward an Iranian port or coastal area.”
A big question remains: will Iran confront the US blockade militarily?… or will an uneasy status quo of limited vessel traffic continue to make it through Hormuz amid a potentially extended ceasefire that goes beyond the 2-week window?
A new warning from the White House/CENTCOM:
The White House and the U.S. military published a clip of a warning to ships, telling them not to breach the blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas. In a maritime radio message, a U.S. servicemember tells ships that they will be boarded for interdiction and seizure if they attempt to travel to or from an Iranian port.
Meanwhile in Tehran…
‘Progress’ Reported in US-Iran Contacts
Axios reports that US and Iranian negotiators “made progress in talks on Tuesday” while moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war, according to two US officials. The headline briefly pushed oil lower. This comes as Pakistan’s top general headed a high-ranking political-security delegation from Pakistan to convey the US message and plan the second round of talks to Tehran. Per details in Axios:
- “They were on the phone and backchanneling with all the countries and they are getting closer,” the U.S. official said.
- A second U.S. official confirmed progress was made Tuesday.
- “We want to make a deal. And parts of their government want to make a deal. Now the trick is to get the whole of government over there to make the deal,” a third U.S. official said.
Meanwhile, state Tasnim is reporting that Pakistan is getting ready to host the second round of Iran-US talks.
Lebanon Ceasefire Imminent?
The Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen channel, citing a senior Iranian source, reports that a ceasefire in Lebanon will begin tonight. “The duration of the ceasefire will be one week and will extend until the end of the ceasefire period between Iran and the United States.”
However, there’s been no confirmation of this from Israel or the US, or in Israeli media. The Lebanese government just met with Israeli officials for Rubio-sponsored talks in Washington yesterday, but there was no word of a definitive ceasefire coming from the meeting, and currently Hezbollah and Israel are not directly talking at all. It remains unclear whether this could be a sign of Lebanese officials getting Hezbollah on board with a pause in fighting.
Meanwhile, two fresh notes on the question of advancing a second round of US-Iran negotiations:
- Iranian media reported that Field Marshal Asim Munir, Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army, headed a high-ranking political-security delegation from Pakistan to convey the US message and plan the second round of talks, and is scheduled to meet with officials of the Islamic Republic.
- Regional mediators are trying to extend the U.S.–Iran cease-fire and restart talks after failed negotiations in Islamabad, but no date or venue has been set. A new round is unlikely before Pakistan completes its regional diplomatic
‘Very Close’ To War Over, Diplomacy in Reach: Trump
The latest from Trump: The Iran war is “very close to over” with authorities in Tehran eager to agree a peace deal, President Trump claimed in a fresh interview broadcast Wednesday. “We’ve beaten them militarily, totally,” Trump told Fox Business in a prerecorded interview. “I think it’s close to over, I view it as very close to over… If I pulled up stakes right now it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country, and we’re not finished.” He added: “We’ll see what happens, I think they want to make a deal very badly.”
This as the Associated Press has reported the US and Iran are closer to extending a ceasefire and restarting negotiations, even amid the intensifying standoff over the Strait of Hormuz as the US Navy has blockaded it for all shipping leaving Iranian ports or with ties, or under sanction.
The two sides have an “in principle agreement” to pursue further diplomacy after last weekend’s failed Islamabad talks. Trump on Tuesday had optimistically cited that the next round could be just two days away. Mediators are said to be pushing for a compromise on outstanding issues including Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program before the April 7 truce expires next week, the news agency said – as they also eye the extension off the initial two weeks.
IRAN
Live Updates: Iran plans to bypass US blockade using new ports, High Court to hear petitions to oust Ben‑Gvir
Over 20 rockets fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel, • Trump says he is not thinking about extending ceasefire with Iran • Man, 61, lightly wounded by shrapnel in northern rocket fire.
An Iranian national flag waves in front of a building in the Shahid Boroujerdi residential complex in southern Tehran, Iran, on April 14, 2026. The building was destroyed in a U.S.-Israeli military operation on March 4, 2026, during a fragile ceasefire.(photo credit: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
April 15, 10:50 AM
END
how on earth can they use alternative ports to bypass the USA blockade?>
Iran plans use of alternative ports to bypass US blockade
Iran is reportedly planning to use alternative ports outside of southern Iran in an attempt to bypass the US blockade against the Strait of Hormuz, according to a report from Iranian Mehr News cited by Reuters.
Iran plans use of alternative ports to bypass US blockade
Iran is reportedly planning to use alternative ports outside of southern Iran in an attempt to bypass the US blockade against the Strait of Hormuz, according to a report from Iranian Mehr News cited by Reuters.
ISRAEL TBN
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
Hezbollah Chief Torches ‘Futile’ Israel Talks, Urges Lebanon Walkout As Rubio Hypes ‘Historic Opportunity’
Tuesday, Apr 14, 2026 – 10:10 PM
The Israel-Lebanon peace talks which have kicked off at the State Dept. in Washington D.C. on Tuesday are unprecedented and historic, and yet they remain largely symbolic and will unlikely lead to much in terms of ending the conflict with Hezbollah. That’s of course because Hezbollah is not actually represented, only Lebanese government officials – who hold no power or sway over what is the single most well-armed paramilitary group in the country.
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem on Monday demanded that Lebanon cancel the US-hosted meeting with Israel, reaffirming the Iran-aligned group’s rejection of direct negotiations with its sworn enemy.
“We reject negotiations with the usurping Israeli entity… We call for a historic and heroic stance by canceling this negotiating meeting,” Qassem stated. He blasted the talks as “futile”.
Hezbollah has sent thousands of rockets into Israel, both in support of Hamas during the two-year Gaza war, and more recently as the US war on Iran kicked off.
Israel has in turn obliterated parts of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley – launching a brutal airstrike campaign, as if to punish the whole country. Earlier in the Gaza war Hezbollah leadership was decimated.
As for the Lebanese government, it first wants to secure a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war via these formal talks with Lebanon itself. The US and Israel in turn are hoping to pressure all of Lebanese society into disarming and dismantling Hezbollah.
For now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep up the fight against Hezbollah, saying Saturday that “we want the dismantling of Hezbollah’s weapons, and we want a real peace agreement that will last for generations.’
The Lebanon crisis holds the potential to impact the outcome of delicate on and off again peace talks between Tehran and Washington.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently overseeing the talks. Upon welcoming the rival ambassadors Tuesday he declared, “This is a historic opportunity. We understand we’re working against decades of history and the complexities that have led us to this unique moment and the opportunity here.”
“The hope today is that we can outline a framework upon which a current and lasting peace can be developed,” he added. Here’s how he framed the situation:
“The Lebanese people are victims of Hezbollah. The Lebanese people are victims of Iranian aggression.” Rubio stated. “This is a process, not an event.”
From Washington and Tel Aviv’s eyes, this lasting peace doesn’t have Hezbollah in the picture. The US has sought the group’s final demise for decades, and the lengthy Syrian proxy war also had this as a key objective, along with the overthrow of Assad, and eventual regime change targeting Tehran – to dismantle the so-called Shia axis.
END
ISRAEL //LEBANON
No peace, no normalization: What Lebanon really wants – analysis
The key question is why Lebanon, which until recently boycotted Israel, labeled it an enemy and avoided any form of public engagement, is now actively seeking direct talks.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun pictured at the Presidential PAlace, Baabda, Lebanon, February 16, 2026.(photo credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)ByDR. EDI COHENAPRIL 15, 2026 08:39
In recent weeks, Lebanon’s government, led by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, has repeatedly called for direct talks with Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the shift, saying, “In light of Lebanon’s repeated requests to open direct negotiations with Israel, I have instructed the cabinet to begin such talks as soon as possible,” less than a week ago. While Netanyahu stressed there is no ceasefire in Lebanon, Lebanese officials appear to be relying on negotiations to secure one.
The talks were held for the first time in the United States, bringing together Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, and Lebanon’s ambassador, Nada Hamadeh Mouawad, under American mediation. This marks the first open, direct negotiations between the two countries since the 1980s, aside from the indirect maritime agreement in 2022. A sense of cautious optimism emerged from the meeting, with the Israeli ambassador describing the discussions as “excellent” and conducted in a “very positive atmosphere,” adding that both sides are aligned on the need to free Lebanon from Hezbollah.
The key question is why Lebanon, which until recently boycotted Israel, labeled it an enemy and avoided any form of public engagement, is now actively seeking direct talks. The answer, in short, is a desire for a ceasefire and growing fears that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could escalate further, threatening Lebanon’s already fragile state.
It is important to note that, beyond the Shi’ite community, much of Lebanon’s political establishment and broader public do not view Hezbollah as a priority worth defending. In fact, weakening Hezbollah aligns with the interests of both the Lebanese state and much of its population. Southern Lebanon has already suffered extensive destruction, but it has long been neglected by successive governments and holds limited importance for the country’s elite. However, as Israeli strikes have expanded to Beirut and warnings have been issued about targeting strategic sites across Lebanon, leaders in Beirut appear to have concluded that an immediate ceasefire is necessary, not out of sympathy for Israel or its northern residents, but out of concern for the country’s survival.
Two fundamentally different approaches
Lebanon is already grappling with a severe socio-economic crisis, and the war, sparked by Hezbollah’s decision to join the conflict in October 2023, has caused widespread devastation in the south, heavy casualties, and significant internal displacement toward Beirut and the north. The Lebanese leadership, including Aoun, Salam, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, hopes to restore state sovereignty, curb or weaken Hezbollah, end the fighting, and secure international assistance. They view direct negotiations as a way to separate the Lebanese state from Hezbollah and prevent total collapse. Hezbollah, led by Naim Qassem, has strongly opposed the talks, calling them a “humiliating surrender.”
Two fundamentally different approaches are now evident. From Israel’s perspective, Netanyahu has emphasized that negotiations should focus on disarming Hezbollah and potentially achieving a historic agreement, rejecting the idea of a ceasefire as a precondition. In contrast, Lebanese officials insist the talks are solely aimed at securing a ceasefire, nothing more. Normalization with Israel has not been raised on their side.
A preliminary security arrangement may still be within reach. The core disputes are relatively limited, with Lebanon seeking a ceasefire, an Israeli withdrawal, and adjustments to existing border demarcations. Around 13 to 14 disputed points remain along the land border, including Rosh Hanikra, the Shebaa Farms, Mount Dov, and the village of Ghajar. While not an immediate priority, these issues could resurface in later stages of negotiations.
From the perspective of someone familiar with Lebanon’s internal dynamics, there is a segment of the population that supports normalization with Israel, while others hope Israel will help free them from Hezbollah’s influence, as they believe occurred during the 1982 Lebanon War. However, the outcomes of that period, and the assassination of President Bashir Gemayel, remain a cautionary tale.
Israel, the argument goes, must approach these negotiations differently. Even if Hezbollah is the primary adversary, the Lebanese state ultimately bears responsibility for its actions. One proposal is that Israel should demand compensation from Lebanon for damages caused by Hezbollah in recent conflicts, both as a matter of accountability and as a deterrent.
More critically, Israel should insist that Lebanon formally designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. While dismantling the group may be beyond the Lebanese government’s immediate capabilities, issuing such a designation would be a significant step. Without it, the argument concludes, negotiations risk becoming an exercise in ambiguity, allowing Lebanon to maintain a dual approach, something its adversaries have historically exploited.
ALGERIA
Twin Suicide Attacks Rock Algerian City Near Where Pope Is Visiting
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 04:15 AM
Algeria has been hit by two terror attacks during Pope Leo XIV’s visit, officials say – though at this point there doesn’t appear to have been any direct effort at targeting the Pope or his accompanying officials.
Twin suicide attacks rocked a city outside Algeria’s capital Monday, just as the American-born Pontiff began his historic visit to the country, AFP reports.
“There were two security incidents yesterday afternoon in Blida, incidents of a terrorist nature. Two suicide bombers blew themselves up and were killed,” a source told AFP on Tuesday. The city in question is a little less than 30 miles southwest of Algiers.
But importantly, authorities have as yet found no link between the attacks and the pope’s visit, which is taking place under tight security. Video reviewed by AFP showed two bodies lying in a street in Blida.
According to a regional news report, “In the videos, several people gathered around the bodies, while passers-by covered them with sheets in a light rain.” The report continues, “The remains appeared severely mutilated, and the circumstances of their deaths could not be determined. Based on the images, the scene was located near several shops and a police station.”
Another report out of North Africa says that Algerian authorities have remained curiously silent on the incident, perhaps trying to avoid disrupting the Pope’s visit, or else on fears that the country will be seen as suffering serious security lapses:
Reports quoted eyewitnesses who said two individuals were wearing explosive belts and tried to target separate locations. Le Point said police officers opened fire on the two attackers before they could reach their targets.
Other reports said the first explosion targeted a security facility in Blida, with the fatal attack causing the deaths of two police officers. Reports also alleged that a second suicide bombing affected a food processing facility in the same province.
But again, little of this is actually confirmed by Algerian security officials. As for Leo, his visit has so far been unfolding without a hitch – but likely his security detail has been tightened and extra vigilant in light of the suicide bombings.
The Pope kicked off his 11-day tour in four African countries this week- which after Algeria will include Cameroon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea. He has while in Algeria focused on promoting Christian-Muslim coexistence, and has visited ancient Christian sites tied to when the region was previously predominantly Christian during late antiquity, under the late part of the Roman Empire in the West.
RUSSIA//CHINA/OIL
But at international prices;
Russia Vows To ‘Fill China’s Energy Resource Gap’ Amid Hormuz Crisis In Lavrov-Xi Meeting
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 03:40 PM
At a moment it remains a serious open question over just how vulnerable China is to the Hormuz Strait crisis, and now with the US-imposed US naval blockade of the vital oil transit waterway, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is in Beijing pledging energy support to China.
Lavrov met with President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, during which Xi urged China and Russia to “give full play to the advantages of geographic proximity and complementarity, deepen all-round cooperation and raise the resilience of each other’s development.”
Russia remains China’s top energy supplier. “Both sides should maintain strategic focus, trust each other, support each other, develop together,” Xi continued, according to a Chinese state media readout.
Lavrov in turn told Xi that Chinese-Russian relations play a “stabilizing role in world affairs” at a time of global “chaos and turmoil.” This has been a consistent theme on which relations and trust have been built between Beijing and Moscow going back to the start of the Ukraine war over four years ago.
Importantly, after the meeting the Russian foreign minister announced to a press conference that Moscow stands ready to increase energy supplies to China.
“Russia can certainly fill the resource gap that has arisen in China and other countries interested in working with us on an equal and mutually beneficial basis,” Lavrov stated.
The two-day Lavrov visit is toward laying the groundwork for an upcoming summit between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s expected for the first half of this year, but likely after Trump’s upcoming May 14-15 summit with the Chinese leader.
The Hormuz crisis is a threat to Chinese energy given Asia’s largest power still depends heavily on global supply routes it does not fully control. While Beijing has for many years sought to diversify through pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, the reality is that those projects take years to build and remain far too limited to replace the volume of oil moving through Hormuz.
However, there’s a strong counterargument pushing back against the assumption that Trump’s Iran moves will ultimately squeeze and devastate China. Alongside Russia coming to Beijing’s side with its recently unsanctioned oil, there are also these aspects to consider:
While China is to some extent dependent on Gulf oil, so is the rest of Asia. While the United States might be insulated from some of the worst consequences of the Hormuz closure, the economies of our Asian allies are not. Asian economies are among the most dependent on Middle Eastern oil, with South Korea receiving around 70 percent and Japan receiving a whopping 95 percent of their oil from the Middle East. The Council on Foreign Relations notes that in 2024, 84 percent of the oil and 83 percent of LNG shipped through Hormuz were bound for Asia. That is not a targeted squeeze. Instead, such a move looks to be made without much heed to Asia at all, hitting the very states Washington is supposedly positioning against Beijing.
China is actually one of the best-positioned countries in Asia to handle this exact crisis because of existing stockpiles, diversified supply chains, a coal-dependent electric grid, and pipeline alternatives. While China is vulnerable, it is more insulated than most of Asia, only receiving around 20 percent of its oil from Hormuz.
There’s a certain irony in the fact that an early element of blowback from the Iran war was that Washington scrambled to remove sanctions on Russian crude oil transiting the high seas, to bat down soaring global oil prices, and yet it is this very unsanctioned oil flow which will benefit China.
And the ‘unintended consequences’ continue to trickle over. The American Conservative writes, “This damage to our Pacific allies is not theoretical. Across Asia, partner governments are already scrambling as their economies face the worst crisis in decades. Asian nations are shortening workweeks and implementing fuel controls, disrupting their economies as tension mounts. Many Asian economies have turned to Russia amid this turmoil, bolstering the economy of another supposed U.S. enemy.”
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
He knew that the vaccine was dangerous!!
Fauci Deputy Who Refused COVID-19 Vaccine Feared Retaliation: Emails
Tuesday, Apr 14, 2026 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A top government doctor who declined to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 was worried he would lose his job and medical license in retaliation, according to newly obtained emails.
“There were times when I was worried about losing my job especially when we first started receiving emails about [vaccine] mandate deadlines,” Dr. Matthew Memoli, who led the Laboratory of Infectious Diseases clinical studies unit at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) during the COVID-19 pandemic, said in one missive to a NIAID spokesman.
He added later that he was more concerned about losing his medical license because he was aware there were “protections for government employees.”
“Washington, DC directly threatened to take away my medical license which would have threatened my job (I need a medical license) so I applied for a Virginia license and protected myself that way,” Memoli also wrote in the email, sent on Jan. 17, 2024, and obtained by The Epoch Times through a Freedom of Information Act request.
After President Donald Trump took office in 2025, Memoli was made acting director of NIAID’s parent agency, the National Institutes of Health (NIH). He has been the NIH’s principal deputy director since March 31, 2025.
Memoli did not respond to a request for comment.
Spoke Out Against Mandate
Memoli became publicly known in 2021 when he was one of the few government officials to speak out against COVID-19 vaccine mandates, which were being imposed on millions of people and promoted at the highest levels of the government.
Emails obtained by The Epoch Times in 2024 showed that Memoli warned Dr. Anthony Fauci—a White House COVID-19 adviser, the longtime head of NIAID until his retirement, and a proponent of vaccine mandates—that mandating COVID-19 vaccination was a mistake, in part because the vaccines did not prevent transmission of the disease.
“At best what we are doing with mandated mass vaccination does nothing and the variants emerge evading immunity anyway as they would have without the vaccine,” Memoli wrote to Fauci in one email. “At worst it drives evolution of the virus in a way that is different from nature and possibly detrimental, prolonging the pandemic or causing more morbidity and mortality than it should.”
Memoli at the time agreed to answer questions via email from The Epoch Times, but officials blocked the interview.
Memoli sent his answers to NIAID spokesman Ken Pekoc to review. In response, Pekoc said the interview request had been rejected by NIAID’s parent agency, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), according to one of the newly obtained emails.
The reasoning for the rejection was not detailed.
‘Many Reservations’
The Epoch Times had asked whether Memoli was in danger of being fired due to his opposition to the mandates and whether he wished he had gone public with his opposition to the mandates sooner, among other questions.
“I had expressed many reservations about the vaccines in press interviews that I did far prior to late 2021,” Memoli said in response, in answers that were never sent to The Epoch Times. “I was always honest about that. The reporters I spoke to never seemed to publish any of the information I provided regarding that.”
That changed near the end of 2021, when The Wall Street Journal and other papers published stories about Memoli’s remarks after President Joe Biden and federal agencies such as NIAID and its parent agency, the NIH, mandated COVID-19 vaccination for federal employees and contractors.
Memoli, in comments to reporters and in internal emails, said he opposed the mandates because from his experience with respiratory viruses, they evade immunity, and vaccines could drive the evolution of the virus. He also said requiring shots infringed on medical freedom.
“The vaccine was not working well due to the rise of variants, there were safety issues arising, and as my family and I had chosen not to be vaccinated we were dealing with threats of having our medical licenses taken away, loss of employment, etc.,” Memoli wrote to Pekoc in one of the newly obtained emails, dated Jan. 16, 2024.
“We had friends who felt coerced into accepting vaccination as was happening all over the country. Therefore, to again try to be constructive I contacted the NIH ethics office to appeal to them to consider this.”
Spoke at Event
After exchanging emails with NIH ethics personnel, Memoli was invited to speak at an agency event called the Ethics Grand Rounds in December 2021. In his speech, he made the case that mandates should only be imposed in rare situations, and should not be imposed for COVID-19 vaccines because the vaccines’ effectiveness dropped over time.
“I was somewhat surprised given the environment, but I have always had the utmost respect for the NIH ethics department,” Memoli said in one of the newly obtained emails. “I have worked with them many times in the past and have even published papers with them. The people in that office have always been very smart, open minded, and able to look at difficult issues and consider them carefully and thoroughly.”
He added that many colleagues thanked him for his presentation, and that no colleagues or superiors offered negative remarks. Julie Ledgerwood, another NIAID official, spoke at the event in favor of mandates.
At least one other NIH employee privately criticized Memoli’s position, however. The presentation “made it abundantly clear why his reasoning was so flawed and flaky,” Dr. Steven Holland, director of the NIAID’s Division of Intramural Research, wrote to Pekoc and others.
Holland did not respond to a request for comment. NIH did not respond to emailed questions, including how many workers it fired for refusing COVID-19 vaccination.
An email from another official, Dr. Jeffrey Cohen, chief of the NIH’s Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, includes several sentences that were redacted. “Thus, I don’t understand why he would think his job or clinical practice was in jeopardy,” Cohen said after the redacted sentences.
Pekoc said in an email to Cohen and other officials that NIH leadership wanted it made clear that no one at NIH said Memoli would be fired.
“In other words, he may have FELT like his job was in jeopardy because he had a very different view, but that no one ever actually told him or threatened that he could lose his job,” Pekoc said.
Memoli wrote in one of his answers to The Epoch Times, “None of my superiors at NIH or anyone I physically worked with ever threatened me directly or allowed it to affect my work.” The answer had been edited at the behest of NIH leaders, as shown by prior email exchanges.
Nonetheless, Memoli said in a separate email to Pekoc that “it should be clear [he] was worried about losing [his] job” and that he “spent months worrying and thinking about where [he] was going to go.”
He added: “That is the honest truth. When I gave the ethics grand rounds I thought that might be the last time I gave a talk at NIH and that my scientific career might be over after that. Now in hindsight that may have been a bit hyperbolic, but that is how I felt at the time.”
Should Have Been More Assertive
Memoli said that in hindsight, he wished he had been more assertive as he tried to “help the agency avoid some of the mistakes” he felt it had made, such as issuing mandates. He added in the unsent answers to The Epoch Times, “I feel I should have been less worried about my situation, and I should have sent emails and had discussions with my leaders sooner expressing my expert opinions.”
But he also told Pekoc that leaders of the NIH and HHS should know that never approving exemptions filed by himself and others was “a sore point.”
“They let us twist in the wind worried about our jobs for a year, and then never even gave us a final approval which leaves us hanging if there is another mandate in the future. I feel this was done on purpose to try to coerce us into getting the vaccine and I consider it highly unethical and disappointing,” he wrote.
Memoli said in the same Jan. 17, 2024, email that he wished that the NIH director or health secretary would apologize and announce that COVID-19 vaccine mandates were a mistake.
NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya and other Trump administration officials have said the mandates should not have been imposed.
“I took the COVID vaccine myself, but I think that the mandates that many scientists pushed have led to the lack of confidence that so many of the public has in science,” Bhattacharya said during his confirmation hearing.
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, April 6-13, 2026
Hip-Hoppers Afrika Bambaataa (C), “Coy” Abrams III (C), “Blondy” Chisolm (The Sequence); hoopster Melissa Jones (36); baseballer Phil Garner (C); footballers Browning Nagle, Tony Davis; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerApr 15 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES (85)
Afrika Bambaataa, Hip-Hop Pioneer, Passed Away After Prostate Cancer Battle
April 12, 2026
Hip‑hop pioneer Afrika Bambaataa has died at the age of 68 following a battle with prostate cancer; he passed away on April 9, 2026, in Pennsylvania, where he had been receiving treatment for complications related to the disease. Widely regarded as one of the founding fathers of hip‑hop, Bambaataa helped shape the culture’s early sound, aesthetic, and philosophy through his work as a DJ and the creation of the Universal Zulu Nation. Afrika Bambaataa was first diagnosed with prostate cancer in the early 2020s, though public details about the exact timing and stage at diagnosis remain limited; news reports and family statements describe it only as a long‑term battle with the disease. Over the following years, his condition gradually worsened, marked by treatment‑related decline, periodic hospitalizations, and a noticeable withdrawal from public events and performances as he focused on managing his health. By the time of his death on April 9, 2026, official reports described it as due to “complications related to cancer,” without specifying whether he received surgery, radiation, hormone therapy, or newer systemic treatments.
Soul and Hip-hop giant Conley Abrams III dies
April 12, 2026
We are sad to note the passing of Conley “Coy” Abrams III, the Los Angeles-based engineer, mixer, producer, and creative executive who quietly helped shape some of the most important R&B and hip-hop records of the past four decades. Abrams passed away on Thursday, April 2, 2026, after a battle with bone marrow cancer.
No age reported.
Blondy of Pioneering Hip-Hop Group The Sequence Dead at 66
April 8, 2026
Gwendolyn “Blondy” Chisolm of the pioneering hip-hop group The Sequence has died at the age of 66. The news was confirmed in a press release after the rapper and songwriter’s longtime group mate Cheryl “The Pearl” Cook shared news of her death on social media. “Today I’m hurting because my sister Blondy has passed. I’m going to miss you and Angie. Am so in shock. Just talk to you. Love both of you. Until we meet again. R.I.P.,” Cook wrote, referencing the group’s third member, Angie Stone, who died in a car accident last year. No cause of death has yet been revealed by reps, however, Billboard has reported that Blondy died on Monday (April 6) in Atlanta following a brief illness. According to Billboard, at the time of her death, Blondy was completing her memoir and collaborating with Nashville’s National Museum of African American Music to present a permanent exhibit spotlighting The Sequence’s iconic legacy.
Former Baylor Basketball Player Melissa Jones Dead at 36: Fan Favorite Died At Her Home in Colorado
April 10, 2026
Former Baylor University women’s basketball player and fan favorite Melissa Jones has died at age 36, her family confirmed. Jones died at her home in Commerce City, Colorado, on Friday, April 3, her mother told Texas news station KWTX. No cause of death has been announced.
World Series champ Phil Garner dead at 76 after cancer battle
April 12, 2026
Phil Garner, a former MLB All-Star and World Series champion, has died, his family said on Sunday. He was 76. Garner died Saturday after battling pancreatic cancer for more than two years, his family said.
Former Jets, Falcons QB Browning Nagle dead at 57 after cancer diagnosis
April 11, 2026
Former NFL quarterback Browning Nagle, a Louisville standout in the 1991 Fiesta Bowl, has died, his alma mater announced Friday. He was 57. Nagle was diagnosed with colon cancer earlier this year. Nagle had a stint in the Arena League after stepping away from the NFL. After he hung up his cleats, Nagle pursued a career in medical sales.
Ex-Nebraska Cornhuskers star, Buccaneers and Bengals RB, dead at 73
April 11, 2026
Tony Davis, a former star running back at Nebraska who played for the Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has died. He was 73. Davis died from complications from Parkinson’s Disease, according to multiple reports. “Tough Tony” was a standout for the Cornhuskers in the early 1970s. He was the first 1,000-yard rusher for legendary coach Tom Osborne.
Rob Orlando, CrossFit Games Veteran, Dies Following Battle with Cancer
April 6, 2026
After a two-year battle with cancer, Rob Orlando has passed away at the age of 50. Orlando, who competed at the CrossFit Games four times, was diagnosed in January 2025 with stage 4 cancer in his lower jaw and lymph nodes in his neck. Known as the “Strongman of CrossFit”, Orlando founded Hybrid Athletics.
Former WWE Referee David Dwinell Dies Aged 76
April 9, 2026
David Dwinell has passed away at the age of 76, following a battle with a rare neurological condition. David Dwinell, a well-known figure in the Northeast wrestling scene, worked as a referee for more than 30 years, including stints with WWE, NWA and several independent promotions. Dwinell died on March 19, 2026, with his health having declined in recent months. In December 2025, he revealed he had entered hospice care after being diagnosed with Paraneoplastic Neurological Syndrome. Dwinell remained connected to the wrestling industry following his retirement, including volunteering as a tour guide at the Hall of Fame and sharing his experiences through his autobiography, Ringman.
Researcher’s note – Paraneoplastic neurological syndromes (PNS) are rare, immune-mediated disorders that arise as remote effects of cancer, occurring in approximately 1 in 300 cancer patients, though population-level incidence suggests they are significantly underdiagnosed at roughly 1.6 to 8.9 per million person-years.
David Gersten Dies: Longtime Broadway & Off Broadway Publicist Was 67
April 6, 2026
David Gersten, whose career as a Broadway and Off Broadway press representative and marketing consultant spanned more than 30 years and included such clients as notable revivals of Jonathan Larson’s tick, tick… BOOM! and Stephen Sondheim’s Marry Me A Little as well as offbeat yet durable entertainments like Naked Boys Singing! and Tony n’ Tina’s Wedding, died today, April 6, after a brief battle with pancreatic cancer. He was 67. Gersten worked with some of Broadway’s best and highest-profile producers, including both Alexander H. Cohen and David Merrick. He was a longtime member of the Off-Broadway League and founding member/Vice-President of the Off-Broadway Alliance.
Researcher’s note: Gersten was a leader and supporter of various theater organizations that encouraged COVID “vaccination”, and supported mandates during the reopening of Broadway and Off-Broadway theaters, including ATPAM, the Off-Broadway Alliance, and The Entertainment Community Fund.
Former Hairdresser Claimed on His Deathbed That Courtney Love Masterminded Kurt Cobain’s Death
April 9, 2026
Thirty-two years after grunge god Kurt Cobain’s tragic death, smoking-gun evidence has exploded proving the legendary Nirvana frontman did not die by suicide – but was killed in cold blood! In a world exclusive, Globe has obtained a videotaped deathbed confession in which Daniel Clint Rich – who claimed he knew Hole rocker Courtney Love through the music industry – tells the world Cobain’s widow masterminded the “Smells Like Teen Spirit” singer’s murder. The stunning video was made on Jan. 13, 2025, or a mere 18 days before Rich died at the age of 68 at his LaRue, Texas, home from brain and prostate cancer. In the video, the former hairdresser solemnly claims he was paid to privately fly Love to Moses Lake airport outside of Seattle and that she, himself and others then lured Cobain to the greenhouse above the garage of his Seattle home with the promise of getting high. Once there, Rich says several accomplices, whose names Globe is withholding because of a police investigation, doped Cobain with a “hot shot” of black-tar heroin and then blew the drugged singer away with a shotgun to make it appear as if he had taken his own life.
Lina Robles, longtime radio host, dies at 62
April 10, 2026
Lina Robles, a longtime radio personality known for her broadcasts on La Poderosa 96.7 FM, recently died unexpectedly at her home in Palm Desert [CA]. She was 62.
No cause of death reported.
Vic McCarty, Longtime Local Broadcaster, Passes Away
April 7, 2026
Traverse City, Michigan – Vic McCarty [65], a longtime radio host at Traverse City’s WTCM, has passed away. McCarty had been battling stage 4 metastatic cancer. A part of Traverse City’s media landscape for 30 years, McCarty was best known for his long-running radio show, the Vic McCarty Show with Micki Durocher, which aired every weekday morning on WTCM’s NewsTalk 580 radio station. “I’m sorry to say Vic McCarty passed away today, 4/6/26,” Durocher wrote. “He went peacefully at Munson Hospice House after being diagnosed only one year ago with pancreatic and prostate cancer. He gave it his all to try and beat it… Please know Vic LOVED broadcasting and getting to know all of you. He was happiest when on the air and truly appreciated the love you all showed him over the years.”
Union County commissioner dies of brain cancer one week after resignation
April 8, 2026
UNION COUNTY, N.C. – Gary Sides [68], a longtime Union County elected official, died after a battle with brain cancer, officials said on Wednesday. Sides’ battle with cancer was private, but his family gave county leaders permission to share the news. Sides resigned from the board of commissioners on March 31. He was elected to the Union County Board of Commissioners in November 2024. Sides noted that he was diagnosed with Stage IV brain cancer four months after joining the board of commissioners.
Researcher’s note – North Carolina to Require Vaccine [sic] Verification for State Employees, Urges Other Government Agencies and Private Employers to do the Same: https://governor.nc.gov/news/press-releases/2021/07/29/north-carolina-require-vaccine-verification-state-employees-urges-other-government-agencies-and
Grand Prairie City Council member Mike Del Bosque dies at 53, colleagues praise legacy
April 12, 2026
Grand Prairie, TX – Grand Prairie City Council member Mike Del Bosque, who had represented District 3 since 2017, died Friday. He was 53. The city wrote in a March 13 social media post that Del Bosque’s cause of death was unknown at the time. City officials confirmed the seat will not be filled by appointment before the May 2 election. It will rema
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Is The Iran War Good For The Petrodollar?
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 09:10 AM
Diana Choyleva wrote an excellent editorial for the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Iran War Is A Boon For The Petrodollar.”
She pushes back against claims that the Iran conflict is accelerating the death of the petrodollar.
Instead, RealInvestmentAdvice.com points out that she argues the opposite: between Iran and Venezuela, the U.S. is defending and bolstering dollar dominance in the oil trade.
The 75-year-old petrodollar system rests on oil being priced and traded in dollars, which keeps the dollar prominent in all global trade.
China has been undermining the petrodollar through yuan settlement systems and by deepening its ties with some Arab nations.
Rather than Iran being a “perfect storm” weakening the petrodollar, as some argue, Choyleva sees American military engagement in Iran as supportive of the dollar.
Simply, control the flow of oil, and you control the currency it’s traded in.
Most Arab nations back the US campaign against Iran. Importantly, “the security commitment was tested; it held.”
This reinforced the security-for-oil-pricing bargain that underpins the petrodollar system.
The removal of Venezuelan President Maduro and influence over Venezuelan oil accomplishes similar goals.
If the US controls Western Hemisphere oil reserves, it would command more oil than OPEC combined, thus providing enormous leverage for keeping oil priced in dollars.
The author sees two scenarios for how the war ends.
First, an agreement that gives the U.S. influence over Iranian oil flows.
Second, US forces seize Kharg Island and police the Strait of Hormuz.
In her words, controlling “the choke point through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows.”
Either way, both events lead to more dollar-based oil trades, not less.
She concludes that “those who conclude that the petrodollar is already in its death throes are reading the map upside down. The storm is real. The dollar is fighting back.”
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Yet Another Historic Church Torched In Canada
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 08:50 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Another historic church lies in ashes after a major fire tore through Saint-Romain, Quebec, last night. The building, whose construction began in 1893, is the latest casualty in a relentless campaign against Canada’s Christian institutions that has seen arsons more than double since 2021.
The post, which included video of the blaze, has ignited widespread outrage across X, with people quick to assume who the likely culprits are.
That CBC News investigation documented the surge in detail. A subsequent Macdonald-Laurier Institute report confirmed arson attacks on religious institutions more than doubled from pre-2021 baselines, with fewer than 4% of cases resulting in charges—leaving over 96% unsolved.
Western nations are watching the same erosion. In the UK, churches face more than 10 crimes every single day.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1789 DOWN 0.0009
USA/ YEN 158.84 UP .042 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3562 DOWN 0.0012 OR 12 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3768 UP 0.0002 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 0.58 PTS OR 0.01%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 98.18 PTS OR 0.38%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.39%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 98.18 PTS OR 0.38%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.58 PTS OR 0.01%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.39%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 350.61 PTS OR 0.61%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4811.60
silver:$79.21
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 44.75 PLUS 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 74.65 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 72 BASIS PTS//ROUBLE STRONGEST CURRENCY ON THE PLANET.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7810 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.457 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.430 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.049 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY MORNING: 97.93 UP 2 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.426% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.409% DOWN 3 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.599 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.481 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.800 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0310 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAYWEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1788 UP 0.0009 OR 09 basis points
USA/Japan: 159.06 UP 0.264 OR YEN IS DOWN 26 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7900 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.462 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 7 BASIS pts to 1.3773
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP 6.8211 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.8162
TURKISH LIRA: 44.75 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.264.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.882 DOWN 2 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.761 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4816.90
SILVER AT 10;00: 79.39
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 49.48 PTS OR 0.47%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 22.48 PTS OR 0.09%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 53.29 PTS OR 0.64%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 100.80 PTS OR 0.35%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 19.83 PTS OR 0.04%
WTI Oil price 91.03 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 94/68 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 76.01/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 64 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.452 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.074 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1802 DOWN 0.0013 OR 13 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3572 DOWN 0.0002 OR 2 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.8190 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.5130 UP 8 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.401 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.601 DOWN 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 158.95 UP 0.157 OR YEN DOWN 16 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3728 DOWN 0.0038 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 38 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 91.03
Brent OIL: 94.68
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 4.276
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 2 PTS to 4.892%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.6813 UP 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.475 UP 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.086 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.85 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 44.75 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.01 DOWN 0 AND 64/100 roubles //
GOLD $4800.0 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 79.49 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 72.27 OR .15%
NASDAQ 100 UP 362.58 PTS OR 1.40%
VOLATILITY INDEX 18.06 DOWN 0.30 PTS OR 1.63%
GLD: $ 440.46 DOWN 4/63 PTS OR 1.04%
SLV/ $71.84 PTS DOWWN .20 OR OR 0.28%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 53.63 PTS OR 0.16%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Tax-Day Triggers Stocks Up, Oil Up, VIX Up As Bears Get The BIRD
WRAP UP
Stocks hit fresh record highs as optimism builds around end of war – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 04:24 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude flat, Dollar flat, Gold down
- REAR VIEW: US-Iran reportedly weigh extending ceasefire by two weeks, albeit, officials on both sides say no decision made; Trump says he views the war as being very close to over; Israeli reportedly to discuss ceasefire prospect with Lebanon; MS & BAC beat on earnings; ASML Q2 revenue guide misses; US import prices come in soft, export prices slightly hot; NY Fed tops forecasts; Fed’s Hammack and Musalem expect rates to stay on hold for a while; EIA crude stocks show draw; China is reportedly considering curbs on solar manufacturing equipment exports to the US.
- COMING UP: Data: Australian Jobs Report (Mar), Chinese GDP (Q1), Industrial Production (Mar), Unemployment Rate (Mar), UK GDP (Feb), Industrial Production (Feb), Italian HICP Final (Mar), EZ HICP Final (Mar), US Jobless Claims (Apr/11), Philly Fed Index (Apr), Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Mar), New Zealand Food Inflation (Mar). Events: ECB Minutes (Mar), SNB Minutes (Mar). Speakers: Fed’s Williams, Miran; ECB’s Schnabel, Nagel, Lane; RBA’s Hunter; BoE’s Taylor. Supply: Spain, France, UK. Earnings: TSMC, Abbott, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo, Netflix, Tesco, Pernod Ricard.
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MARKET WRAP
It was a risk-on trade on Wednesday with the S&P 500 going on to print a fresh record high, with markets completely unwinding the downside seen since the start of the US/Iran war. Optimism remains around an end to the war with US President Trump reiterating overnight that he sees the war being very close to over, while there were reports about a two-week ceasefire extension, but both sides denied it had reached out to offer such an olive branch. Although the overall market tone was positive with stocks surging, oil prices settled flat in a two-way trade. Oil was sold on optimism, but gains were seen after a bullish EIA inventory report, seeing crude settle unchanged. However, post-settlement weakness was seen amid reports that Iran could consider ships being able to sail through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz, but it depends on whether the US is prepared to meet Iran’s demands. The upside in equities led to outflow of traditional havens with Yen, Franc, Dollar, T-notes and gold all lower, while Bitcoin saw further gains. QQQ (+1.4%) finished firmer for the 11th day in a row, supported by strength in the Mag7 and a continued rebound in software. In Europe, ASML (ASML, -2.4%) beat on earnings; however, the Q2 revenue outlook missed, weighing on shares. In financials, earnings continued to be positive, with the latest beats seen from Morgan Stanley (MS, +4.5%) and Bank of America (BAC, +1.8%).
US
NY FED: Business activity increased moderately in New York State in April; the headline general business conditions index rose eleven points to 11.0 (exp. -2.0). New orders and shipments increased significantly; New Orders to 19.3 from 6.4, and shipments to 20.2 from -6.9. Unfilled orders rose, and delivery times lengthened. Supply availability worsened somewhat. Employment expanded, and the average workweek increased. The pace of input price increases picked up sharply after slowing last month, while the pace of selling price increases was little changed. Prices Paid jumped to 51.0 from 36.6, while prices received were little changed at 21.8 from 21.4. Firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, though optimism moderated and capital spending plans weakened. Summarising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics writes that the report shows the sector is holding up well and companies are absorbing the recent jump in costs in their margins for now.
IMPORT/EXPORT PRICES: Import prices rose 0.8% in March (exp. 2%, prev. 1.3%), while export prices lifted 1.6% (exp. 1.5%, prev. 1.5%), as the former jumped 2.1% Y/Y, the strongest annual growth since December 2024. Most of the monthly gain was driven by non-fuel imports rather than fuel imports, as fuel import prices only rose 2.9% in March, despite the Middle East war, which has caused global energy prices to soar. Ahead, risks are leaning towards higher import prices in 2026 due to higher global oil prices. Overall, Oxford Economics adds, while headline inflation will be pushed higher by fuel prices this year, they expect the passthrough to core prices will be muted, and as such see core inflation to average 2.8% in 2026, which should be contained enough to allow the Fed to stay focused on risks to the labour market.
HAMMACK (HAWK): The 2026 voter thinks that rates are in a good place, and the baseline is that the Fed will stay on hold for a while. She warned of two-way risks, but she will be watching the data, acknowledging that it is a tough time for monetary policy. She said the key is how high energy prices get, and how long they remain there. She said this could bring inflation higher, but it could also hit growth. She exclaimed the importance of keeping inflation expectations anchored, which she said are reasonably well contained.
MUSALEM (HAWK): The 2028 voter said the current range of interest rates is likely appropriate for some time. The oil shock is likely feeding core inflation, and expects it will be near 3% through year-end. Musalem lowered his GDP estimates for the year to between 1.5-2.0% (prev. saw 2.0-2.5% pre-war). He also suggested that easing tariff impact will help lower inflation, and housing inflation is also moving in the right direction. He said the supply shock puts the Fed’s inflation and employment goals at risk, noting the unemployment rate could tick up a couple of tenths as economic growth slows.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 5+ TICKS LOWER AT 111-11+
T-notes sold amid broad traditional-haven outflows. At settlement, 2-year +1.8bps at 3.763%, 3-year +2.3bps at 3.779%, 5-year +3.0bps at 3.894%, 7-year +3.1bps at 4.077%, 10-year +3.0bps at 4.278%, 20-year +3.3bps at 4.867%, 30-year +3.2bps at 4.890%.
THE DAY: Treasury yields rose on Wednesday, reversing some of the earlier week’s strength, with the move largely reflecting a pullback in recent price action rather than a clear macro driver. Oil prices were little changed on the session, taking a breather after recent volatility.
Although T-notes have largely been trading off the swings in oil recently, the weakness in Treasuries appeared consistent with broader risk-on dynamics, as equities rallied while traditional haven assets — including the dollar, franc, yen, and gold — softened.
Markets remain cautiously optimistic about a resolution in the Middle East, although reporting around a potential ceasefire extension was mixed, with participants awaiting further developments in US-Iran talks, which are expected to resume, potentially in Islamabad next week.
US data was mixed and had a limited impact on markets. The NY Fed manufacturing survey strengthened, with higher prices paid and improved employment, while import and export prices were mixed.
Fed commentary broadly reinforced a “higher for longer” stance. Hammack emphasised ongoing inflation concerns and a preference to hold rates steady, while Musalem warned core PCE could remain near 3% through year-end. The Federal Reserve Beige Book pointed to modest growth and steady labour conditions, while Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated that while Fed patience is warranted, rate cuts are still expected over time.
SUPPLY
Bills
- US sold 17-wk bills at high-rate 3.625%, B/C 2.93x
- US to sell USD 75bln of 8-week bills and USD 80bln of 4-week bills on April 16th; to settle April 21st
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Money Market Pricing (D/D): April +1.8bps (prev. +1.8bps), June +1.8bps (prev. +1.8bps), July +0.3bps (prev. -0.2bps), Dec -8.0bps (prev. -8.6bps).
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.22bln (prev. 0.31bln) across 6 counterparties (prev. 13) on April 15th
- SOFR at 3.66% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 3.116tln (prev. USD 3.135tln) on April 14th
- EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 94bln (prev. USD 97bln) on April 14th
- Treasury Buyback (Liquidity support, 10-20 year, max USD 2bln): Accepts USD 2bln of 18.055bln offers; Offer to cover 9.03x
CRUDE
WTI (M6) SETTLED USD 0.01 HIGHER AT 91.29/BBL; BRENT (M6) SETTLED USD 0.14 HIGHER AT USD 94.93/BBL
The crude complex saw two-way action, but ultimately settled little changed amid conflicting reports regarding ceasefire agreements.
Overnight, crude prices were pressured after US President Trump said he sees the war as being very close to over. Focus during the US session resided around a potential ceasefire extension. Both US and Iranian officials denied reports that they had requested a two-week ceasefire extension, but that the US remains engaged in talks and conversations are productive. WH Press Secretary also suggested the next round of talks will take place in Islamabad. A view also shared by Iran. Meanwhile, regarding Israel/Lebanon, the NYT reported that Israel is considering a short-term cease-fire in Lebanon that could pause the war against Iran-backed Hezbollah, albeit reports suggested members of the council oppose a ceasefire in Lebanon, and PM Netanyahu said Israel remains ready for any scenario, including the possibility that fighting may resume.
Elsewhere, benchmarks were supported on the weekly EIA data; crude, gasoline, and distillates all saw larger-than-expected draws, with the former two even seeing builds in last night’s private inventory metrics. Overall, crude production was unchanged W/W at 13.596mln. For the record, WTI traded between USD 84.70-90.45/bbl and Brent USD 93.93-96.90/bbl as the focus resides around geopolitics.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.80% at 7,023, NDX +1.40% at 26,205, DJI -0.15% at 48,464, RUT +0.30% at 2,714
SECTORS: Materials -1.30%, Industrials -1.24%, Utilities -0.93%, Health -0.72%, Consumer Staples -0.41%, Energy -0.28%, Real Estate -0.04%, Financials +0.76%, Communication Services +1.06%, Consumer Discretionary +1.37%, Technology +2.08%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.73% at 5,941, Dax 40 +0.18% at 24,087, FTSE 100 -0.47% at 10,560, CAC 40 -0.64% at 8,275, FTSE MIB -0.04% at 48,156, IBEX 35 -0.55% at 18,186, PSI -0.18% at 9,345, SMI -0.30% at 13,229, AEX -0.42% at 1,016
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Morgan Stanley (MS): EPS, rev., NII & FICC sales all surpass expectations.
- Bank of America (BAC): EPS, rev., & NII topped although FICC trading rev. missed. Raised FY NII guidance.
- PNC (PNC): Top line & NII light
- Snap (SNAP) raised Q1 outlook & will lay off ~16% of its workforce.
- GitLab (GTLB) expanded its partnership w/ Google Cloud
- Broadcom (AVGO) and Meta (META) announced a multi-year, multi-gen strategic partnership to support Meta’s AI compute infrastructure, extending through 2029
- American Tower (AMT) upgraded at Mizuho to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’
- ASML (ASML): Next Q rev. guide light, but did raise FY net sales view w/ strong Q1 numbers
- AWS (AMZN) and Lumen (LUMN) launch integrated private cloud connectivity solution, and Lumen becomes first partner for AWS Interconnect – last mile.
- SolarEdge Tech (SEDG) downgraded at Goldman Sachs to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’.
- TeraWulf (WULF) announced disappointing prelim Q numbers.
- Smartphones: IDC said the global smartphone market fell 4.1% in Q1 as a memory chip shortage & Iran war pressured costs & growth.
- US HHS Secretary RFK Jr says FDA is to remove many peptides from category two. Of note for Hims and Hers (HIMS).
- Live Nation (LYV) illegally monopolised the ticketing market, a jury found.
- Sazerac offered Brown-Forman (BF.B) USD 32/shr, WSJ reports citing sources.
FX
DXY was little changed on Wednesday despite reports of a potential 2-week extension to the current US-Iran ceasefire. With DXY mostly paring the upside from the war, the bar for further downside may require a more long-term solution or the labour market showing deterioration. As it stands, both sides haven’t agreed to such an extension, but betting markets are increasingly convinced of a permanent peace deal by the end of H1. In March, import prices were cooler than forecasts, while export prices came in slightly hot. The release, similar to Fed speak, and the Fed’s Beige book had little bearing on price action. Hammack (2026 voter), a known hawk, says the baseline is staying on hold for a while, believing rates are in a good place in the current environment. Musalem (2028 voter) also said rates could be on hold for some time. Meanwhile, the first Beige Book since the Middle East conflict began showed that the economy is weathering the economic impacts.
Citi’s London trading desk wrote this morning: “Not yet fully convinced that there will be further diversification away from US assets after the Iran dust settles, tactically sees dips should be bought.”
AUD and NZD led G10 strength once again as markets welcomed the positive updates regarding the diplomatic arms on the US/Israel-Iran war. Meanwhile, CHF and JPY lagged in the risk-on environment with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY setting new yearly highs.
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
this is good!!
Treasury Secretary Says Order On Citizenship Proof For Banking Is ‘In Process’
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday confirmed that an executive order mandating banks to collect citizenship information on customers is underway.
“It’s in process. And I don’t think it’s unreasonable, because, why don’t we have information on who’s in our banking system?” he told Semafor in an April 13 interview, responding to whether the Trump administration was working on the banking order.
“I have a place in the UK; they want to know who lives in every apartment—and how do we know that it’s not part of a foreign terrorist organization?” he added.
At least one Republican lawmaker has asked the Trump administration to implement such an order, and The Wall Street Journal reported, citing anonymous sources, that banks could be tasked with requiring people to submit passports under the policy.
In a post issued on X in October 2025, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) included a letter he sent to Bessent urging the secretary to carry out a “comprehensive review of current rules that allow illegal aliens to obtain financial services and access to the U.S. banking system.”
“Access to the American banking system is a privilege that should be reserved for those who respect our laws and sovereignty,” Cotton wrote in the letter. “When individuals are allowed to open accounts without verifying legal status, we are permitting illegal aliens to establish financial roots and integrate economically, all while bypassing the legal channels that millions use properly.”
Cotton asked whether the administration could implement the order under the USA PATRIOT Act, a Bush administration-era law enacted in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, or the Bank Secrecy Act, a 1970 anti-money laundering law.
The Trump administration has prioritized cracking down on illegal immigration as well as entitlement fraud. Since he took office in January 2025, President Donald Trump has issued multiple executive orders and memoranda to boost the deportation of illegal immigrants and end temporary deportation protection programs for certain countries.
Trump has also called on Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, which has stalled in the Senate, to require photo IDs for voting and proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote.
In a post last month, the president said that there would be no deal to end the partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) unless some Democrats join Republicans to pass the measure.
The bill must include “their approval of Voter I.D., (with picture!), Citizenship to Vote, No Mail-In Voting (with exceptions), All Paper Ballots, No Men In Women’s Sports, and No Transgender MUTILIZATION of our precious children,” he wrote in a Truth Social post on March 22. He also called on congressional lawmakers to stay in Washington during the Easter recess, although the lawmakers ultimately went on their break.
Last month, the Trump administration established an anti-fraud task force that would investigate instances of illegal immigrants engaging in benefits fraud as well as other forms of waste and abuse.
The Epoch Times contacted the White House for comment on Tuesday.
END
Inflation Just TRIPLED as the Reset Accelerates
by ITM Trading
Tuesday, Apr 14, 2026 – 13:41
US consumer sentiment just hit its lowest level since 1952. Not 2008. Not the stagflation of the 1970s. 1952.
Taylor Kenney breaks down why that number isn’t the story — it’s the symptom. Inflation has already hit 3.3% in March with projections now reaching 4.8% by year-end. And that’s on top of the 30% in purchasing power already stripped from every dollar-denominated asset you own. That 30% isn’t coming back. Ever.
Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year bond yields just hit their highest level since 1997 and the largest foreign holder of US debt is pulling funding home at exactly the moment America needs more buyers. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is putting the petrodollar under direct pressure. The Fed can’t raise rates without detonating the debt load. It can’t hold without inflation ripping higher. There is no clean exit.
So why aren’t gold and silver surging? That’s the question everyone’s asking and the answer tells you everything about where we actually are in the currency life cycle.
Live Event: Surviving the Reset – Join Taylor Kenney for a live webinar and Q&A as she breaks down the 4 stages of every currency collapse and the U.S. dollar’s place in the timeline.
Date: Tuesday, April 21, 2026 Time: 9:30am PST / 12:30pm EST
Save Your Seat
About ITM Trading: ITM Trading has spent nearly 30 years helping clients prepare for monetary resets, inflation, and systemic risk using physical gold and silver. We focus on education, historical context, and strategies designed to protect wealth when trust in the system breaks down.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report April 15, 2026 – Issue 7721 | Independent View of the News |
| Team Trump apparently concocted a better-than-reality March PPI, largely by holding Energy to only an 8.457% m/m gain when oil and gasoline soared over 50% by the surveying period (The Tuesday of the week contains the 13th of the month). How can ‘fuels & lubricants retailing’ show a decline in price! https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_04142026.htm The BLS: Reference Date – For most items, establishments report selling prices for the Tuesday of the week containing the 13th of each month…https://www.bls.gov/ppi/overview.htm March PPI 0.5% m/m & 4.0% y/y; 1.1% m/m & 4.6% y/y exp; Core PPI 0.1% m/m & 3.8% y/y; 0.4% m/m & 4.1% y/y expected. The BLS: The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing; securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice; deposit services (partial); and brokerage fees and commissions for residential property agreements also decreased… A 6.0-percent decline in margins for food and alcohol wholesaling was a major factor in the March decrease in prices for services for intermediate demand. The indexes for gross rents for retail properties; securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice; freight forwarding; and deposit services (partial) also fell. Conversely, prices for warehousing, storage, and related services rose 4.8 percent. The indexes for loan services (partial); metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling; and gross rents for office buildings also increased… March NFIB Small Business Optimism 95.8, 97.9 expected JPM Stock Fizzles Despite Blowout Quarter as Key Forecast Cut Net income of $16.5bn, beating analyst estimates of a $15.2bn… total trading revenues of $11.6bn, up 20% from the first quarter a year ago… Adjusted revenue $50.54 billion, beating estimates $49.26 billion FICC sales & trading revenue $7.08 billion, +21% y/y, beating estimate $6.65 billion Equities sales & trading revenue $4.48 billion, +17.5% y/y, beating estimates $4.31 billion Investment banking revenue $3.14 billion, +38% y/y, beating estimate $2.73 billion Advisory revenue $1.27 billion, +82% y/y, beating estimate $1.01 billion Equity underwriting rev. $472 million, +46% y/y, beating estimate $453.2 million Debt underwriting rev. $1.15 billion, -6.9% y/y, matching estimate $1.15 billion… Net charge-offs $2.32 billion, below estimate $2.63 billion… one reason why JPM stock dipped in kneejerk reaction and was currently unchanged is that the bank trimmed its forecast for net interest income for 2026. JPMorgan said it expected net interest income of about $103bn this year, down from the $104.5bn it forecast in February… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-stock-fizzles-despite-blowout-quarter-key-forecast-cut Wells Fargo fell as much as 6.84% because it missed on earnings (1.56 vs 1.58 Adj EPS); reported net interest income of $12.1B ($12.3B expected) and reported $36.2B of private-credit exposure. Stocks, ex-the DJTA, rallied moderately early on Tuesday on the latest hope of a deal with Iran and the start of Q1 earnings reporting season. Fangs and tech led the rally, a staple of the Earnings Season Rally. ESMs vacillated between modest gains and tiny losses from their 18:00 ET opening until they broke higher at the 3 ET European opening. After a rally to 6942.25 at 5:01 ET, ESMs retreated to 6928.00 at 7 ET. Pattern buying for the 7 ET US repo market opening appeared; ESMs jumped to 6949.50 at 8:28 ET. After a drop to 6936.50 at 8:52 ET, because most traders did NOT believe the March PPI Report (released at 8:30 ET). ESMs then inched higher until they aggressive buying on the NYSE opening ignited a near-vertical rally to 6979.00 at 10:51 ET. After a modest retreat, ESMs soared to a daily high of 7003.25 (+80.50) at 13:33 ET. After a slow rollover, ESMs fell to 6983.25 at 14:25 ET. An A-B-Extended C Wave rally that took ESMs to the daily high of 7008.00 at 15:32 ET. Trump: “Europe is desperate for Energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea Oil, one of the greatest fields in the World. Tragic!!! Aberdeen should be booming. Norway sells its North Sea Oil to the U.K. at double the price. They are making a fortune. U.K., which is better situated on the North Sea for purposes of energy than Norway, should, DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! It is absolutely crazy that they don’t… AND, NO MORE WINDMILLS!…” Trump signals possible new Iran talks in Pakistan: NY Post Europe drafts postwar plan to free up Hormuz without US – WSJ KKR Limits Redemptions from Asset-Backed Fund after 7.2% Sought – BBG 8:13 ET Positive aspects of previous session Fangs soared and drove Nasdaq and the Naz 100 sharply higher. Pattern buying & short covering for Earnings Season and the eternal hope for an Iran deal boosted stocks. USMs rallied moderately while oil and gasoline declined sharply. Negative aspects of previous session The DJTA declined smartly in early trading. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are major US stock indices poised for a run at new all-time highs? Is Team Trump fudging economic data and intervening in the stock market? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 6947.23 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 6969.42; 6905.17 @DaleStarkA10: The Swalwell saga perfectly shows how politics really works in America. They’ve had this dirt on him for years and sat on it until he stepped out of line. It explains why no matter who you vote for, you get the same results. One nation under blackmail. (What does Team Obama have on the Pope?) MAGA pundit insists Obama aide and the Pope are conspiring to hurt Trump “This is all about trying to hurt President Trump’s Catholic vote during the midterms and Republicans in the midterms… Axelrod is the chief strategist for Obama,” he went on. “The pope is saying he’s not political. Why is he meeting with the chief strategist for both Obama’s campaigns and in the White House?… When Iran killed 30,000-plus of their own citizens, he didn’t call out the Iranian regime at all,” he raged. “He said we need to stop violence. That was very milquetoast, that wasn’t calling out the Iranian regime, and yet he’s calling out the United States and Israel.”… https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/maga-pundit-insists-obama-aide-152522370.html One theory is that Obama is terrified by the investigation into what he did to Trump and is enlisting all the forces that he can to avert the prosecution. Today – The usual suspects will try to force key equity indices to new all-time highs, abetted by the unshakable hope for an Iran deal and pattern buying for Q1 Earnings Results. The S&P 500 Index is only 34.9 points from its all-time print high of 7002.28 on January 28, 2026. The DJTA is at an all-time high. Nasdaq is 380.9 points from an all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 is 68.2 points from an all-time high. The usual suspects will ‘shoot for the number’ today, barring bad news. ESMs are +3.00 NGMs are +14.75; USMs are +6/32; and gas & oil are down moderately at 20:35 ET. Fed action: Gov Barr 8:30 ET, Gov Bowman 13:45 ET, Beige Book released at 14:00 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6760; 100-day MA: 6806; 150-day MA: 67702 200-day MA: 6667 DJIA 50-day MA: 47,982;100-day MA: 48,111; 150-day MA: 47,611; 200-day MA: 46,868 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6967.39 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7137.44 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 66714.82 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6935.99 triggers a sell signal @NiohBerg: In 1979, Jimmy Carter sent US General Robert Huyser to Iran. His mission was to advise the Shah, during a time when communists and mullahs rampaged through Iranian streets, murdering and beating civilians and security forces alike. At the time, the Shah’s Imperial Army considered forcefully restoring order by cracking down on the violent islamic fanatics by any means necessary and temporarily impose martial law. They wanted to avoid a bloodbath by acting fast and decisively. However, General Huyser told them: “Stand down. Do not act.” The Carter Administration, obsessed with avoiding any confrontation and to “respect civilian governments”, stabbed the Shah in the back and directly interfered when there was a last chance at stopping the Khomeinist revolution. This weakness directly caused the fall of Iran’s 2500 year old monarchy. The Shah left Iran a week later. Then Khomeini arrived. And the rest is not just history, you are witnessing the consequences of Carter’s betrayal right now. FBI reveals it is reviewing ‘closely’ new allegations on Ukraine impeachment accuser DNI Tulsi Gabbard declassified new evidence showing the CIA analyst who prompted the 2019 impeachment raised concerns about bias, truthfulness and hearsay… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/fbi-reveals-it-reviewing-closely-new-allegations-ukraine Ukraine whistleblower said he didn’t want his bias noted, and IC watchdog seemingly obliged “Some indicia of an arguable political bias on the part of the Complainant in favor of a rival political candidate.” He criticized GOP congressmen, recounted that he asked to hide his complaint from Republicans on the intelligence committee, pointed to his close links to Joe Biden’s efforts in Ukraine, and more… The self-admitted potential biases which the Ukraine impeachment whistle-blower relayed to investigators for the intelligence community watchdog during the first Trump Administration were redacted and concealed from House investigators in 2019, newly-declassified… transcripts show… https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/ukraine-whistleblower-said-he-didnt-want-political-bias-featured-and Biden administration weaponized law to infringe rights of pro-life activists, DOJ says Federal prosecutors engaged in “inappropriate conduct and comments” and knowingly withheld evidence from defense counsels. (Where was The Pope on this?) https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/abortion/biden-administration-weaponized-law-infringe-rights-pro-life-activists-doj @Austin__Berg: Illinois State Sen. Graciela Guzman, D-Chicago, is launching a new series called, “It’s time to tax the motherf***ing rich.” Her top donor is the Chicago Teachers Union. CTU and its associated PACs have given Guzman’s campaign nearly $500K. https://x.com/Austin__Berg/status/2044062359602205097 What’s with liberal women hurling f-bombs? Is it an act of liberation? Trump lashes out at European ally Meloni amid tensions over Pope and NATO “I’m shocked by her,” Mr. Trump told the Corriere della Sera. “She doesn’t care if Iran has a nuclear weapon and would let it blow Italy to smithereens in two minutes if it could. Meloni doesn’t want to help us with NATO, she doesn’t want to help us get rid of the nuclear weapon. She’s very different from what I thought.”… https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-15/trump-meloni-criticism-pope-iran-war/106565416 Deacon Nick Donnelly @ProtecttheFaith: Pope Leo’s ignorance about what’s really happening to Christians at the hands of Muslims is an embarrassment. His woke platitudes are so detached from reality. He is siding with the persecutors rather than their Christian victims. This is becoming the default position of the Vatican. Look what they’ve done to the Catholics of China Pope Leo: “We should perhaps be a little less fearful of Islam.” This remark was hammered mercilessly on X. List of recent Islamic-related attacks at link: https://x.com/ProWestCiv/status/2044092660655313077/photo/1 @mrddmia: All across the world, churches are getting burned to the ground. Christians face mass-slaughter. By Islamists. What is the Pope’s and his bishops’ response? 1. Trump’s Truth posts are mean. 2. Tour mosques and praise Islam. The Catholic Church lost its way after Benedict. @TheCharlesDowns: According to the Vatican, Barack Hussein Obama’s (@BarackObama) senior advisor David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) brought an “entourage” with him when he met with Pope Leo (@Pontifex) on April 9th. Who was part of Axelrod’s “entourage”? https://x.com/TheCharlesDowns/status/2043763961317749126/photo/1 Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex: Communion between Christians and Muslims takes shape under the mantle of Our Lady of Africa. Here, in Algeria, the maternal love of Lalla Meryem gathers everyone as children, within our rich diversity, in our shared aspiration for dignity, love, justice, and peace. In a world where division and wars sow pain and death, living in unity and peace is a compelling sign. Deacon Nick Donnelly @ProtecttheFaith: Islam doesn’t believe that Jesus is the Son of God, nor that Mary is the Mother of God. Islam’s denial makes their understanding of the Blessed Virgin Mary incompatible with Catholic Marian doctrine. How can their be communion between Islam and Christianity on this? Doesn’t make any sense. @SteveDeaceShow: Islam teaches Christ was never crucified therefore never resurrected, when Christianity hinges on the Resurrection… @BrittRooted: Islam strictly denies Jesus’ deity, crucifixion, and resurrection, viewing the claim that Jesus is God as blasphemy. Converting from Islam to Christianity (apostasy) is considered a grave offense in traditional Islamic law, carrying up to and including the penalty of death. @TheBabylonBee: Pope Now Recommending Christians Pray the Rosary While Facing Mecca @scotus_wire: In a 2-1 vote, a D.C. Circuit panel has issued an extraordinary writ of mandamus, ordering Judge Boasberg to terminate his criminal contempt probe into the Trump administration’s transfer of alleged Tren de Aragua members to El Salvador. https://x.com/scotus_wire/status/2044099907586298323 Happy US Federal Income Tax Deadline Day! | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING JOHN RUBINO
Re-enter Death Spiral When Iran War Stops – John Rubino
By Greg Hunter On April 14, 2026 In Market Analysis, Political AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Analyst and financial writer John Rubino is still warning of a currency crisis. He thinks the big run up in gold and silver in the past year are sending a message about the quality of fiat currency that governments print at will. Lots of money will be printed to prosecute the Iran war, and there will be a financial price to pay. Rubino says, “War is incredibly expensive. If the US has to add another $1 trillion to the deficit to finish this thing off, that’s another trillion we have to borrow. . .. So, we are eroding the trust that people have in our big systems. . .. The wars that we have seen lately are making the financial crisis coming our way . . much worse and making it come that much sooner. The more money we borrow right now, the bigger of a deal it is for inflation and currency exchange rate and, ultimately, for gold and silver. Nobody should hope things like this happen, but if you are strictly looking at your own finances and you are a gold bug . . . we are screwing up the financial system that is bad for the fiat currencies and great for real money (gold and silver) and other commodities. . .. There are a lot of reasons to think commodities benefit from this war. I am kind of hesitant to look on the bright side of war . . . but I do think a war time economy is inherently inflationary, and that is inherently good for commodities.”
If the war drags on, Rubino says, “It will make the coming financial crisis worse sooner.” If war finishes soon, can we all breathe a sigh of relief and be out of the woods? Rubino says, “Here’s hoping because that would be awesome. Let’s say it ends tomorrow. Then we go back to what we were doing before, which is bailing out everybody in sight, creating huge amounts of currency and lobbying the Fed to cut interest rates. In other words, we re-enter the death spiral of the world’s fiat currencies.”
Rubino is especially bullish on silver. A year ago, silver was selling in the low $30 per ounce range. Today, even after the big sell-off, it is selling in the low $80 per ounce range. Rubino says you ain’t seen nothing yet. Rubino says, “The silver story is great. More and more industries need it, and fewer and fewer mines are producing it. We have this decision point coming soon where the price is going to have to jump up to reflect the panic buying coming from the shortages.”
Rubino thinks you will be seeing $15,000 per ounce gold and $300 per ounce silver, but he can’t say exactly when. He just knows it will happen because with fiat currencies, history always repeats. Rubino says, “This sounds crazy now, but they are probably going to happen. That is just how currency collapses play out. We have seen hundreds of currencies in human history that have died. Just Google hyperinflation, and you will see a list of name brand countries that destroyed their currency. They rode them down to virtually zero. It’s hyperinflation, and something like that is coming. . .. We should not even think about it in terms of dollars, just buy it (physical gold and silver) to have real money.”
There is much more in the 36-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino of the popular site called Rubino.Substack.com for 4.14.25.
For The Wellness Company “Parasite Cleanse” with Ivermectin and Mebendazole, there is a new 45 capsule option for $349.99, click here. Don’t forget you get $52 off and free shipping with promo code USAWATCHDOG .
After the Interview:
John Rubino is a prolific financial writer, and you can see some of his work for free at Rubino.Substack.com.
There is even more cutting-edge original information and analysis if you subscribe. (Rubino charges an incredibly low price of $5 per month or $50 a year. That’s a deal for cutting edge analysis and money-making ideas.)
You can also support John Rubino at the snail mail address below:
PO Box 953
Carlsborg, WA 98324
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
