EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,545.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/29/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 05/01/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 741
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 513 152
118 H MACQUARIE FUTURES US 302
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1199
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 38
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 1587 384
690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 2
905 C ADM 34
TOTAL: 2,476 2,476
MONTH TO DATE: 2,476
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2026: 2476 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 247,600 OZ or 7.701 TONNES
total notices so far: 2476 contracts FOR 247,600 OZ OR 7.701 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 4580 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 22.900 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4580 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 22.90 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ
SUMMARY OF OUR APRIL 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/.
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27800 OZ/ (0.8646 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD.
MARCH:: SMALL INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MARCH AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 46 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 4400 OZ OR 0.2320 TONNESAND THEN WE ADD BY OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 22.3818///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES OF GOLD./
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD; 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP(0.8646 TONNES) //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2239 CONTRACTS/223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONG
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE 2107 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 99.154, A NEW ALL TIME LOW WITH AN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH PRICE FOR SILVER (APRIL 30)
EFP ISSUANCE 300 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 300 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2107 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 300 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1807 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $1.95
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 13.170 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $1.95
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS APRIL 30 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.64 PTS OR 0.11%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 335.31 PTS OR 1.28%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 584.96 PTS OR 0.98%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.59%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP 6.8265
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8317 Oil UP TO 106.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 109.68 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8265 (UP) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8317 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 2200 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 367,330 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET THIS MONTH AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING WEDNESDAY’S TRADING ALONG WITH MONTHLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT ALSO SOME SPECULATORS GOING TO THE SHORT SIDE WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS APRIL CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD. WE ARE NOW IN THE LAST DAYS OF THE MONTH AND THUS OUR TWO SPREADERS ARE IN FULL FORCE DURING OPTIONS EXPIRY MONTH: THE COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY CONCLUDED ALREADY
WE THUS HAD A FAIR LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 1165 CONTRACTS (OR 3.623 TONNES) WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.EQUATING TO 1035 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS TOTALLING 0 CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO APRIL:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
DETAILS ON OUR NEW APRIL COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7486 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE ($85.85). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH APRIL/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1175 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS NOW IN FULL FORCE DURING THIS WEEK DURING LONDON COMEX AND LBMA/OTC OPTION EXPIRY WEEK!! (INITIAL MAY CONTRACT MONTH)
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
FOR MARCH WE HAVE 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7196 CONTRACTS OR 719,600 OZ/22.3818 TONNES.. AS DELIVERIES OF GOLD THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE BEEN HUGE!!
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOTIFICATION HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES.
MAY : ZERO SO FAR!
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
- FOR APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.XXXX TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
AND NOW APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MAY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $45.70)
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND SPREADER LIQUIDATION // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI //
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT//THURSDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
NOW A LITTLE REVIEW OF GOLD STANDING THESE PAST 7 MONTHS:
STANDING FOR GOLD OCT THROUGH TIL APRIL
ANALYSIS// OCT DELIVERY MONTH GOING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE// OCT COMEX CONTRACT TO FINALIZATION OCT 31
OCTOBER…
OCT AT 90.164 TONNES TO BE FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS OF 75.696 TONNES WHICH WE ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES EX FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS:
/ TOTAL STANDING 197.551 TONNE/OCTOBER FINAL//ABSOLUTELY A MONSTER DELIVERY FOR A NORMALLY QUIET OCT MONTH
2. AND NOVEMBER:
NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH A HUGE 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY OUR TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWED ALL OTHER NOVEMBER QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 4.5596 TONNES..
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 ONNES OF GOLD.
3. AND DECEMBER:
3. DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY A 0 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR NIL OZ OR 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OTHER DEC QUEUE JUMPS OF: 0 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
4. JANUARY:
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
10. FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0298 TONNES TO WHICH THIS IS ADDED TO ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2082 / NEW QUEUE JUMP ADVANCES TO: 41.233 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO: 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TO WHICH WE THEN ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 22.3818 TONNES// GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO: 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING: A VERY STRONG 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP (2.4105TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS//149,800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES.TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK THUS FAR THIS MONTH TOTALS TWO FOR 2239 CONTRACTS//223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 12.24 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $45.70
WE HAD 2147 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 1165 CONTRACTS OR 116,500 OZ OR 3.623 TONNES
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
APRIL30 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 0 |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2426 CONTRACTS OR 242,600 OZ 7.701 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1461 Contracts 146100 OZ 4.544TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 242600 notices 242,600 oz 7.701 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 1
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 0
xxxx
adjustments: 2 DEALER TO CUSTOMER
a) Brinks 280,967.589 oz
b) JPMorgan 143,039.799 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI STANDS AT 3937 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 31 CONTRACTS.
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MAY CONTRACT MONTH IS AS FOLLOWS:
3937 NOTICES X 100 OZ PER NOTICE
EQUALS 393,700 OZ
OR 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH
.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI LOST BY 2557 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 259,659
JULY LOST 15 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 866.
We had 2476 contracts filed for today representing 247,600oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 1587 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2476 contract(s) of which 0384 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 267 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2,476) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (3937 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 2476 x 100 oz per contract) equals 393,700 OZ OR (12.24 Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2476) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (3937 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 2476 x 100 oz per contract) equals 393,700 OZ OR (12.24Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in MAY is 12.24 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY 12.24 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 138,103 really awful!! many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
the number provided do not match from yesterday!!!
total pledged gold: 1,947,780.204 oz 60.58 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,947,780.204 tonnes oz 60.58 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 29,321,938.266 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,765,316.599 OZ 490.367 onnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 13,556,621.667 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,817.536 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
429.783 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
APRIL30
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of Delaware 14,550.806 oa ii0 out of JPMorgan: 602,506.900 oz total withdrawal: 617,057.706 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 1 ENTRY i) Into Delaware: 6717.606 oz total deposit 6717.606 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 4580 CONTRACT(S) (22.900 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1Contracts (0.005 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 4580 contracts 22.900 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRY
i) Into Delaware: 6717.606 oz
total deposit 6717.606 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) Out of Delaware 14,550.806 oa
ii0 out of JPMorgan: 602,506.900 oz
total withdrawal: 617,057.706 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments:2
customer acct to dealer account
a) CNT 1,204,983.341 oz
b) Delaware 75,073.75 oz
total oz leaving customer accts to dealer 1.28 million oz
Wednesday volume: 50,187 oz// fair
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 80.834 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 314.627 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR APRIL
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2026 OI: 6299 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 2411 CONTRACTS.
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND IS AS FOLLOWS
6299 NOTICES X 5000 OZ PER NOTICE
EQUALS
31.495 MILLION OZ WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD FOR MAY/SILVER ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 26 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1439 OI CONTRACTS
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 117 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 71,111 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 4580 or 15,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume WEDNESDAY; 50,189 fair
AND NOW MAY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4580 X5,000 oz = 22.900 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (6299) AND the number of notices served upon today (4580 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2026 contract month: (4580 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (6299) minus number of notices served upon today (4580)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the APRIL..contract month equating to 31.495 MILLION OZ.+
NEW STANDING: 31.495 MILLION OZ WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 80.834 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 141.719/314.627 million: 45.22
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
APRIL 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.142 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.195 TONNES
APRIL 29/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $45.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $85.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 27/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.91 TONNES
APRIL 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP 26.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 11.90TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.783 TONNES
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 1/2026/WITH GOLD UP $134.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.276 TONNES
MAR 31/2026/WITH GOLD UP $119.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.133 TONNES
MAR 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.143 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.562
MAR 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $213.05 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.580 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42
MAR 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $155.30 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.000
MAR 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.286 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $165.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.149 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.991
MAR 20/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $39,55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.855 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.135
MAR 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99
MAR 18/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $111.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.564 TONNES
MAR 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.857 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.708 TONNES
MAR 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4/327 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071/.565 TONNES
MAR 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $61.40 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.428 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.852 TONNES
MAR 12/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.715 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1077.28 TONNES
MAR 11/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $70.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.858 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.565 TONNES
MAR 10/2026/WITH GOLD UP $137.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.614 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.707 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1039.195 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
APRIL 30 WITH SILVER UP $2.03: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.991 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.243MILLION OZ
APRIL 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.95: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.39: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 24 WITH SILVER UP 0.92: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,23MILLION OZ
APRIL 23WITH SILVER DOWN $2.35: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.489 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488,773MILLION OZ
APRIL 22 WITH SILVER UP 1.43: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262MILLION OZ
aPRIL 21 WITH SILVER DOWN 3.71: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17 WITH SILVER UP $3.09: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.900 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.132 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.477 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.579 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND WITHDRAWAL OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.079 MILLION OZ
MAR 31 WITH SILVER UP $4.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.532 MILLION OZ
MAR 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.74: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.75: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 10.505 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.92: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.490 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $6.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9444 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.761 MILLION OZ
MAR 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.36: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.792 MILLION OZ.
MAR 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.705 MILLION OZ.
MAR 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.57: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.056 MILLION OZ.
MAR 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.83: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// . ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592
MAR 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.713 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.592 MILLION OZ
MAR 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.96 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// ANOTHER MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.812 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.305 MILLION OZ
MAR 10 WITH SILVER UP $5. HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.63 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.117 MILLION OZ
MAR 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.30 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.747 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 485.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
MATHEW PIEPENBURG…
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
JESSE COLUMBO
This is a post from Jesse Colombo’s The Bubble Bubble Report—a bestselling newsletter focusing on precious metals investing and global economic risks. We specialize in detailed reports and analyses.
Gold & Silver Volatility Has Plunged
Extremely low levels of volatility in gold and silver typically signal the end of corrections and the beginning of new rallies.
| Jesse ColomboApr 30∙Paid |
In today’s update, I’d like to highlight an interesting observation shared on X by Bob Coleman, Founder and President of Idaho Armored Vaults, and add my own perspective. In short, he noted that both gold and silver volatility indexes, which I will explain in more detail shortly, have declined significantly from their peaks earlier this year, a development that typically signals that corrections or pullbacks in the metals have run their course and are setting the stage for a rebound.
The gold and silver volatility indexes referred to here are the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index and the CBOE Silver ETF Volatility Index, which measure the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility in gold and silver prices, respectively, based on options pricing for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), similar to how the VIX measures expected volatility for stocks.
When these volatility indexes reach extremely high levels, they signal emotional extremes where moves are becoming stretched and a reversal is likely. That is what occurred in late January, when I pointed out that precious metals were trading like meme stocks and urged caution for those trading, as opposed to long-term holding, especially when using leverage.
When the volatility indexes cool off and pull back, however, that typically reflects a period of consolidation and often precedes a significant breakout once the consolidation has run its course. In a bull market, declining volatility during a pullback often indicates that the correction is stabilizing, and that is exactly what is happening right now, as I will show in the next two charts.
The first chart shows the price of gold alongside the Gold Volatility Index and its 200-day moving average. Note how spikes in the index, such as in the spring of 2025, the fall of 2025, and January 2026, led to pullbacks or periods of consolidation as extreme bullish sentiment cooled, which is a healthy and normal pattern. That is how all markets function, and there is no escaping it, as I showed here.
Next, take a look at the lows in the Gold Volatility Index, as marked by the red arrows, and see how they align with lows in the price of gold. This behavior is especially pronounced during a strong uptrend in volatility, as indicated by the steep upward slope of the index’s 200-day moving average, which is the case right now.
Under these conditions, when the index pulls back to the 200-day moving average, it is a strong signal that the lows are likely in for both volatility and the price of gold, and that is what has occurred over the past few trading days.
Next, let’s take a look at the price of silver alongside the Silver Volatility Index and its 200-day moving average, where the same principles apply as in the prior chart of gold. Spikes in volatility, such as in the fall of 2025 and early 2026, typically lead to cool-off periods, while lows in volatility, particularly pullbacks to the 200-day moving average, often precede rallies in both volatility and the price of silver, which is the current setup.
Interestingly, the signal from the Gold Volatility Index aligns with the one given by the indicator I pay closest attention to, Williams %R, which helps identify when an asset is overbought or oversold. While Williams %R is based purely on price and uses a completely different methodology than the volatility indexes discussed earlier, both are now conveying the same message.
In my update on Monday, I showed that gold was nearing oversold conditions according to Williams %R, and after the declines of the past two days, it is now fully oversold. In an uptrend like the one gold is currently in, that typically signals that a rebound is near (learn more). That is not to say gold cannot go any lower, but it indicates that the pullback has largely run its course and that the odds now favor the upside.
Like gold, silver is now officially at oversold levels:
It’s also worth noting that the lows in the Gold Volatility Index and the Williams %R indicator have aligned with gold’s pullback to its key $4,300 to $4,600 support zone, and those conditions point to a high probability of a rebound from these levels in the near term.
To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).
Similarly, silver has pulled back to its $60 to $70 support zone at the same time that the Silver Volatility Index and Williams %R have reached their lows, a combination that significantly increases the odds of a rebound from this zone in the near term:
To conclude, the sharp decline in gold and silver’s volatility indexes is a clear sign that the speculative fervor seen in January has been effectively flushed out, which was necessary for the still-young secular precious metals bull market to continue in a healthy manner. The oversold readings in both metals further confirm that they are stretched to the downside, and the odds now favor a rebound in the near term. Conditions like these have historically marked some of the best opportunities to “buy the dip.”
Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.
All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
Royal Canadian Mint reviewing allegations about tainted Colombian gold
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2026-04-28 13:13 Section: Daily Dispatches
From the Canadian Press
via CTV News, Toronto
Monday, April 27, 2026
OTTAWA, Ontario, Canada — The Royal Canadian Mint says it has initiated a full review in response to allegations some of its gold comes from a region of Colombia where drug cartels control mines.
Mint spokesperson Deneen Perrin says as soon as the mint learned of the allegations raised by the New York Times, it “immediately and fully” suspended the refining of any material from the supply chain in question
In a report published Monday, the newspaper suggests some of the mint’s gold comes from Colombian mines controlled by the Clan del Golfo drug cartel. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Barrick picks a NY primary listing for IPO of North American gold assets
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2026-04-28 12:21 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Robb M. Stewart and Adriano Marchese
The Wall Street Journal
Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Barrick Mining plans to list its prized North American gold assets in New York as part of an initial public offering set to be completed before the end of the year.
The mining company said today it has identified what it believes is the optimal structure for a separate listing of the assets, including a primary listing in New York and a secondary listing in Toronto.
Not disclosed are details such as where the company that will house the North American operations will be based and domiciled, and the percentage of the assets that Barrick plans to float beyond what the company affirmed will be a minority interest. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
U.S. trade chief urges allies to pay more for critical minerals to undermine China
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2026-04-26 19:29 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Aime Williams
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, April 22 2026
President Trump’s top trade official has told U.S. allies they must pay more for critical minerals sourced from outside China as Washington tries to break Beijing’s stranglehold on supplies.
Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, said American allies must be ready to pay a “national security premium” for the minerals, which would be sourced from within a proposed group of trading partners including Europe.
The U.S. wants the club of countries to trade minerals at set minimum prices to protect their investments in mining and processing, and could hit outside producers — such as China — with steep tariffs or other barriers to prevent them driving down prices.
But the proposal has already alarmed some allies, according to people familiar with private talks between Washington and foreign officials, who fear the fledgling scheme will raise costs for businesses and attract trade retaliation from China. …
… For the remainder of the report:
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 269
5. COMMODITY REPORT//..
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.64 PTS OR 0.11%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 335.31 PTS OR 1.28%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 584.96 PTS OR 0.98%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.59%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP 6.8265
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8317 Oil UP TO 106.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 109.68 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING 6.8265 (UP) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8317 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.8265
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.8317
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 335.31 PTS OR 1.28%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 584.96 PTS OR 0.98%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 106.64
BRENT; 109.68
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.29/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1715 UP 38 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.519 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 157.127… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.747 UP 10 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: 6.8265( UP AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.8317
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.0720 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.909// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.537%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.861%
3j Gold at $4639.35 //Silver at: 73.63 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 6/ 100 roubles/75.11
3m oil (WTI) into the 106 dollar handle for WTI and 109 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.127 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.519% UP 5 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.747 UP 10 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7854 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9162
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.396 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.987 UP 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.898 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.19 UP 12 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.012 DOWN 6 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.668 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.592 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.241 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Jump After Overnight Rollercoaster Session As Oil Unexpectedly Tumbles, Yen Soars
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 08:19 AM
Futures erase an overnight slide, and have resumed their ascent trading near all time highs, despite a hawkish Fed statement but stronger Mag7 earnings. The hawkish Fed followed by a less hawkish press conference, plus the news that Powell is staying on seemingly removing a cut, actually have bond yields lower pre-mkt by 2-4bp as the Dollar weakens on what appears to be BOJ intervention which has sent the USDJPY plunging most since 2022. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4%, erasing a 0.5% drop earlier in the session; Nasdaq futures gain 0.6%: in premarket trading Alphabet is the big gainer from the major tech companies that reported, with Amazon rising too but Meta and Microsoft falling (META -9% AMZN +2.3%, GOOG +6%, and MSFT -1.8%). Semis continue to trade higher as well as Discretionary, Industrials and Materials while Financials, Healthcare and Staples lower as Cyclicals lead Defensives. Energy names are mostly lower after striking rollercoaster in the price of oil. In commodities, energy is weaker, metals are higher led by precious, and Ags are mostly higher. Today’s US economic data calendar slate includes jobless claims, personal income and spending, 1Q employment cost index and first estimate of Q1 GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers) and March Leading Index (10am)
In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed (NVDA +0.8%, AAPL +0.4%, TSLA +0.08%)
- Alphabet (GOOGL) jumps 7% after reporting high demand for its cloud and artificial intelligence offerings, giving investors confidence that its unprecedented investments in AI infrastructure will pay off.
- Amazon.com (AMZN) climbs 3% after the e-commerce and cloud-computing company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics. Analysts are broadly positive on the report, saying that the acceleration of Amazon Web Services is underway.
- Meta Platforms (META) falls 9% after the Facebook parent gave a forecast for capital expenditures that was higher than expected, a sign that investors remain skeptical about AI-related spending in some instances.
- Microsoft (MSFT) slips about 2% after the software company reported third-quarter results. Some analysts said the pace of growth in its Azure cloud-computing business may have underwhelmed.
- Blue Owl Capital (OWL) gains 4% as fee-related earnings and assets increased as the alternative investment firm leaned on other parts of its business amid souring sentiment toward private credit.
- Carvana (CVNA) rises 11% after the company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate as used-car volumes hit a record.
- Caterpillar (CAT) climbs 5% after posting first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations as surging electricity demand from artificial intelligence data centers boosted sales of the company’s power-generation equipment.
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) gains 4% after eeking out higher sales last quarter, suggesting the chain is starting to win back diners who previously balked at the rising price of its burritos.
- Eli Lilly (LLY) rises 7% after raising its full-year sales outlook on the strength of its weight-loss drugs and high hopes for its new obesity pill.
- Ford (F) falls 4% after warning that an unexpected rise in commodity costs will weigh on earnings.
- FormFactor (FORM) rises 10% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics, although analysts were especially positive on the company’s gross margins.
- KLA Corp. (KLAC) falls 4% after analysts note the tepid growth rate at the semiconductor capital equipment company when compared to peers.
- Merck (MRK) gains 3% after the drugmaker reported sales for the first quarter that topped Wall Street’s expectations.
- Procept Biorobotics (PRCT) gains 15% after the medical and surgical equipment manufacturer reported revenue for the first quarter that surpassed expectations.
- Stellantis (STLA) is down 5% after the carmaker posted first-quarter results that included disappointing numbers from North America.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) jumps 11% after the company posted mixed results, but said that it was “excited” by its entry into data centers, where a “leading hyperscaler custom silicon engagement is on track for initial shipments later this calendar year.”
- Quanta Services (PWR) gains 6% after the provider of contracting services to electric utility companies reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) rises 7% after posting first quarter adjusted EPS that topped estimates.
- Smurfit Westrock (SW) falls 5% after the packaging company reported first-quarter adjusted Ebitda that missed analyst estimates.
- Wayfair
tumbles 8% after the ecommerce firm reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
In other corporate news, Starwood Capital is “temporarily suspending” share repurchases from its Starwood REIT to preserve liquidity while waiting for the commercial real estate market to improve. Stellantis shares fell after analysts pointed to the automaker’s worse-than-expected financial performance in North America. And Pop Mart reported a sharp slowdown in US sales, underscoring its challenges in diversifying beyond the Labubu toy. In other AI news, OpenAI has met a key milestone for securing AI capacity in the US several years ahead of schedule, boosting the startup’s ambitious plans for data center expansion. SoftBank plans to establish and list an AI and robotics company called Roze in the US. And banks that recently signed a $40 billion bridge loan with SoftBank for its investment in OpenAI are said to have attracted more lenders to the deal in syndication.
Market sentiment got a boost as global benchmark Brent crude oil erased an intraday jump of as much as 7.1% to above $126 a barrel. Axios had reported that President Donald Trump was slated to receive a briefing Thursday on new plans for potential military action in Iran, clouding hopes for an imminent peace agreement. It was unclear what prompted the oil reversal, although there has been speculation that the BOJ is intervening in both FX and oil.
From swings in oil prices to a divided Federal Reserve keeping rates on hold and impressive megacap tech earnings, traders are grappling with a barrage of whipsawing headlines. That’s testing a global equity rally that has wiped out war-related losses and pushed US markets to new highs as investors still look for signs of an end to the conflict.
“Equities are caught in between escalating Middle East tensions and strong fundamental earnings data being released,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin Ltd. “Oil prices moving toward $150/bbl would likely increasingly impact the consumer in the US, which would also mark a turning point for equity markets. Thus, a deal is required to see a continued move higher over coming months.”
For stocks, “earnings expectations are behaving like a force of nature, and that is more important than anything else,” writes Bloombing Opinion columnist John Authers. Traders are also looking at the playbook from Ukraine and the tariff turmoil, but “it’s hard to believe they’re not over-confident.”
On balance, the frenzy of earnings after the close had a reassuring message, and a clear winner: Alphabet’s Google was able to point to solid growth at its cloud computing unit, which recorded estimate-beating sales of $20 billion last quarter, justifying its AI spending.
Meta was the loser of the pack, with shares sliding after it boosted full-year capex to as much as $145 billion. Investors are concerned that the investments may not pay off, as Meta’s AI system still trails its peers. “So far, Meta’s stand-alone app hasn’t had the amount of engagement vs. other frontier labs,” said BI analyst Mandeep Singh. Amazon was relatively well received, with revenue from its cloud division up 28%, the fastest growth rate since 2Q 2022. Microsoft slightly underwhelmed with a forecast for a “modest acceleration” in Azure cloud sales in the second half of the calendar year.
Japan’s currency strengthened as much as 1.6% against the dollar to 157.85, its lowest since April 17, after Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura echoed Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama’s warning earlier Thursday that “the timing for taking bold steps is nearing.”
In politics, the 74-day shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security is nearing an end after House Speaker Mike Johnson united Republicans behind a two-part budget plan to fully fund the department. Members of Trump’s administration are said to have told Anthropic that they don’t agree with the company’s plan to grant access to its Mythos technology to roughly 70 companies and organizations.
European Stocks turned positive, with the Stoxx 600 now up by 0.4% having fallen as much as 0.7% ahead of the European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision today. BNP Paribas fell after the lender reported higher credit provisions than expected. Credit Agricole and Societe Generale also dropped after results.Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- Arcadis shares gain as much as 14%, the steepest intraday gain since July 2020, after the Dutch engineering services firm’s first-quarter results met with a positive response from Degroof Petercam analysts
- Glencore shares gain as much as 2.6% after the trading and mining giant posted strong profits, with 2026 full-year marketing Ebit expected to “comfortably exceed the top end of the range”
- United Utilities, the water utility company, rises as much as 12% to a record high following an £800m equity raise announcement. Analysts say the raise supports accelerated asset base growth and upgraded return targets
- Magnum Ice Cream shares rise as much as 13%, the biggest jump since its listing in December last year, after the former Unilever unit reported strong first-quarter volumes
- Delivery Hero gains as much as 6.6% after the food delivery firm said it’s confident of achieving upper half of its Ebitda guidance range. That comes after 1Q results beat estimates and showed a modest recovery in its core market Asia
- Puma shares rose as much as 4.1% on Thursday after reporting gross profit margin and sales for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate, with analysts saying the results were solid and showed progress
- BNP Paribas shares dropped as much as 5.3% amid a wider decline for its French peers. The lender reported what analysts say are mixed results with a beat driven by its Corporate Centre unit, while the Arval unit disappointed
- SocGen shares decline as much as 6.7% on earnings that KBW called lackluster after fixed income revenue missed estimates. Profit beat consensus as equity trading and French retail units jumped from a year earlier
- Stellantis shares fall as much as 10% after the carmaker posted first-quarter results where key North America numbers disappointed, with analysts seeing a somewhat mixed print
- Erste Group Bank shares slide as much as 4.6% after the lender reported what a Barclays analyst called a low-quality profit beat helped by one-off gains, with adjusted earnings falling short of expectations
- Weir Group shares fall as much as 9.9% after the mining equipment provider reported first-quarter orders that analysts said look weak relative to peers
- Technip Energies shares slump as much as 10%, the most since October 2023, after the French engineering and technology company reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the first quarter and cut its guidance
Asian stocks slumped as Brent crude surged to a four-year high, fueling inflation concerns and dragging currencies lower across the region’s emerging economies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.6%, the most intraday since April 2, before paring some declines. Equity benchmarks in Indonesia, South Korea and the Philippines were among the top losers. All sectors on the regional gauge fell, except energy. Thursday’s losses pared the MSCI Asia gauge’s April gain to under 13%. It was still on course for its best month since November 2022, with a rally in tech names having overshadowed the impact of the US-Iran war on the broader market. Asian tech shares outperformed earlier on Thursday, following indications of continued high spending on AI infrastructure by the likes of Alphabet and Meta Platforms. Samsung Electronics’ chip arm beat expectations with a 48-fold jump in profit. However, those gains faded as the session progressed, suggesting investors likely trimmed positions ahead of the long weekend. Many of the region’s markets will be shut on Friday.
In FX, the yen the standout in currencies on increasing intervention risks, Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.4%. The pound and UK bonds gained after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, with several policymakers saying they might consider future hikes given high energy prices.
In rates, treasuries rebounded after the surge in oil and a hawkish hold by the Fed drove bonds lower on Wednesday. US front-end yields are more than 5bp lower on the day, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 2bp-3bp. 10-year, lower by about 4bp at session low 4.39%, trails 7bp drop for UK 10-year. US 30-year is back below 4.98% after topping 5% late Wednesday for the first time since July. UK gilts rally after Bank of England held rates steady, meeting expectations.
In commodities, oil prices reversed an earlier spike which took them to a wartime high, after Axios reported that US President Donald Trump will receive a briefing on new military options for action in Iran, signaling the potential for fresh escalation in the Middle East. The two sides showed little sign of breaking their impasse and agreeing to another round of peace talks, with Trump saying his navy’s blockade is working. However, shortly after the European open, oil tumbled with Brent now falling back toward $114.Gold prices higher and back above $4,600/oz.
US economic data calendar slate includes jobless claims, personal income and spending, 1Q employment cost index and first estimate of Q1 GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers) and March Leading Index (10am)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.4%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX +0.2%
- CAC 40 -0.8%
- 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.4%
- VIX -0.5 points at 18.31
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1199.46
- euro +0.1% at $1.169
- WTI crude +0.1% at $107.01/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Trump will receive a briefing on Thurs about potentially resuming military operations against Iran. Brent pushed to a 4 year high. Axios
- As Hormuz traffic stalls, the White House pitches a new coalition to get ships moving again. Trump reportedly wants other nations to form an alliance to help jump-start ship traffic. WSJ
- Japan’s top currency officials rolled out their “final” warning to speculators after the yen slipped to its weakest level since the nation’s last salvo of market interventions in 2024. BBG
- China’s factory activity held up in April, suggesting limited pressure from surging energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East. China’s NBS PMIs for Apr were mixed, with manufacturing outperforming (50.3 vs. the Street 50.1) while non-manufacturing fell short (49.4 vs. the Street 49.8), and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI was ahead of plan too at 52.2 (vs. the Street 51). WSJ
- China has given state-owned refiners the green light to export 500,000 tons of fuels to a handful of regular customers, signaling the country is effectively easing an earlier ban on shipments. BBG
- California gasoline prices topped $6 a gallon as the global energy crunch from the war reverberates. No other state has ever surpassed that mark. BBG
- Anthropic faces White House opposition to its plan to expand access to its Mythos AI model, an administration official said. Separately, the company is said to be weighing fresh funding that would value it at more than $900 billion. BBG
- The record 74-day shutdown of the DHS is nearing an end after Mike Johnson united fractious Republicans behind a two-part budget plan aimed at fully funding the department.
- US House has approved a Republican plan making way for a $70bln bill for ICE and Border Patrol.
- US Senators are to introduce legislation to tighten ban on Chinese vehicles.
- The US House has passed a three-year extension of the FISA re-authorisation.
Iran News
- US CENTCOM is to brief US President Trump on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday, Axios reported citing sources; plan includes a short and powerful strike potentially targeting infrastructure to break the nuclear issue deadlock. Other options expected to be presented include a plan to take over part of the Strait to allow for commercial shipping, which could involve ground forces, and a special forces op to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile.
- US CENTCOM has asked to send the Army’s hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
- US CENTCOM said the US navy has redirected 42 vessels from the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and that the military is fully committed to enforcing the blockade.
- US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu that Israel should only take surgical military action in Lebanon and avoid a full resumption of the war, Axios reported.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said sprinting for the finish line with Iran, according to Fox Business; willing to do secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers. Every day adding more economic pressure to Iran. Close to half a billion in Iran-related crypto seized. Consumers and stock market are looking through Iran. UAE and others have requested swap lines, swap lines are not a bailout.
- Iran lawmaker Mottaki says a naval blockade would amount to a declaration of war, and that fighters could decide as soon as tomorrow or next week to remove such obstacles via military action.
- Iran’s Navy Commander said the Islamic Republic will soon unveil a new weapon that would deeply terrify the enemy, IRNA reported. He said Iran has closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian Sea. Condemned the US’s illegal seizure of several Iranian vessels as part of the blockade, which he said amounted not only to “piracy” but also “hostage-taking”.
- Iran’s Navy commander warns that Iran will soon face its enemies with a very dreadful weapon that will strike fear into their hearts, according to Press TV.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said channels of dialogue with officials in Washington and Tehran remain open, Al Hadath reported. ““The clock on diplomacy has snit stopped. We remain hopeful for a negotiated settlement on this issue. We will continue with our sincerest efforts”,.
- China’s Military said they conducted combat readiness patrols near Scarborough Shoal, according to a statement.
- “No point” in negotiating over zero enrichment, Iranian lawmaker said, Al Jazeera reported; adding “I have no objection to going to the negotiating table, but we should have looked more closely at how to proceed”.
- The US administration is asking countries to join a new international coalition that would enable ships to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ reported. The Maritime Freedom Construct would be a US-led coalition that would share information, coordinate diplomatically and enforce sanctions.
- A surveillance drone near the US embassy in Baghdad has been shot down, according to Iraqi security sources.
- Iranian Navy Commander said we have closed the Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian sea side and will take swift action if enemy advances, Al Araby reported.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded with a negative bias, as weakness stateside in cash hours, earnings and recent geopolitical updates drive price action. More recently, Axios reported that US CENTCOM is to brief President Trump on new plans for potential military action, which is to include a short and powerful strike to break the nuclear issue deadlock. ASX 200 printed modest losses. IT and Tech topped the sector pile while consumer staples and mining underperformed. Nikkei 225 returned from holiday closure with losses in excess of 1%, returning to the 59,000 handle. Fujitsu weighed on the index after the Co.’s Q4 op. profit and FY forecast missed estimates. On the other hand, TDK was one of the outperformers, following FY net that rose by around 20%. KOSPI lacked direction, trading either side of the unchanged mark. Initial upside came after Samsung Electronics reported Q1 earnings that beat top- and bottom-line metrics. However, the earlier gains were erased as trade continued. LG Electronics held onto its earlier gains, after the Co. reported Q1 net that beat expectations. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed, with the Hang Seng the clear underperformer. Stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMIs failed to support the indices, while China Construction Bank printed losses following its Q2 earnings.
Top Asian News
- Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura said this is the final warning before action is taken; speculative moves in FX are mounting; getting closer to taking decisive steps; seeing speculative activity in FX market.
- South Korea to launch 24hr USD/KRW trade from end-June.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) started the session broadly in the red, but have attempted to move higher as the morning progressed; currently towards highs. From an index standpoint, the FTSE 100 (+0.5%) and the AEX (+0.5%) lead, whilst the FTSE MIB (-0.5%) lags. Initial downbeat sentiment stemmed from an Axios report which suggested that the US CENTCOM is to brief President Trump about military options in Iran on Thursday. Ahead, focus will be on the ECB and BoE policy announcements, where both are expected to stand pat on rates, but focus will be on any hawkish guidance. European sectors initially held a negative bias, but are now mixed. Basic Resources took the top spot, buoyed by strength in gold prices and after Glencore (+2%) reported a 19% jump in copper output. Utilities takes the second spot, led higher by United Utilities (+10%) after strong results and announcing an equity raise to fund a multi-billion dollar investment plan. Media is found at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Autos; the latter has been driven lower by Stellantis (-7.4%), where shares have slumped on a tariff-adjusted miss.
Top European News
- POLITICO, citing UK Officials, said May 8 looks set to be a moment of real danger for the PM; said a long-time critic promised to go public with a call for PM Starmer to step down if results are as bad as expected.
- US President Trump posted that the US is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of troops in Germany with a determination to be made over a short period of time.
- Unilever (ULVR LN) Q1 2026 Trading Statement: Underlying Sales +3.8% (exp. 3.7%); FY26 outlook unchanged with USG at lower end of 4-6% and modest margin improvement expected.
- Glencore (GLEN LN) Q1 Production Report: Maintains FY production guidance; Copper production 199.6kt (prev. 167.9kt Y/Y), Cobalt 5.8kt (prev. 9.5kt Y/Y), Zinc 176.9kt (prev. 213.6kt Y/Y), Nickel 17.2kt (prev. 18.8kt Y/Y), Gold 68koz (prev. 145koz Y/Y).
FX
- G10 FX are mostly stronger against the Buck after DXY fell on remarks from Japanese Finance Minister who said “getting closer to taking decisive steps in FX”, and Mimura, the top FX diplomat, said “This is the final warning before FX action”. This strong commentary saw USD/JPY fall 80 pips on Katayama, then a further 30+ ticks on Mimura’s remarks.
- USD/JPY, as mentioned, trades higher by around 0.6% as commentary from both officials proved more hawkish than previous verbal intervention attempts which failed to propel the JPY.
- EUR/USD trades a touch below the 1.17 mark in choppy trade, with the FOMC and decent JPY moves failing to knock the single currency ahead of the ECB meeting. Full preview in the Newsquawk research suite. This morning, EZ inflation ticked up from the prior but broadly in line with expectations. There was no real reaction from the series, which sticks to the narrative that price pressures remain broadly confined to the headline measures, with the core figures steady or actually moderating from the last reading. On Energy, that lifted to 10.9% (prev. 5.1%) and remains the primary contributor to the headline rate.
- EUR/GBP is also unchanged into the BoE and MPR, where it is expected to hold rates in a 9-0 vote split, with risks towards a dovish and/or hawkish dissent a possibility. Focus will be on any clues or hints towards the timing of the next move, and the MPC’s current view on market pricing. In terms of UK Politics, The Times reported that Former deputy PM Rayner is said to be weighing up mounting a direct challenge for the leadership after next week’s local elections. Rayner is regarded as the most left-wing candidate, and also the bookies’ favourite.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama says timing to take decisive action is near; “we are getting closer to taking decisive steps in FX”; have long mentioned possible bold action on FX; monitoring FX while on holiday.
- Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura says this is the final warning before action is taken; speculative moves in FX are mounting; getting closer to taking decisive steps; seeing speculative activity in FX market.
- US will reportedly seek forfeiture of Iran-linked oil tankers seized at sea.
Central Banks
- Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged in 2026 (prev. forecasted cuts in Sep and Dec), expects 25bps of rate cuts each in Jan’27 and Mar’27.
- US President Trump posted that Jerome “Too Late” Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can’t get a job anywhere else.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said it is highly unusual for Powell to stay on the Fed board, calling it an insult and violation of norms; adds Warsh will be Fed Chair on time.
- BoJ maintains May outright bond buying operations at the same levels as April.
- BoJ Outlook Report: weak JPY pushes up prices for a wide range of good services, thereby giving a bigger boost to core consumer inflation; impact of a weak JPY shock is bigger than that of oil shock. “…while a yen depreciation shock tends to lead to a rise in the GDP deflator through wage increases and greater profit margins, an increased crude oil price shock tends to cause a decline in the GDP deflator through compressed profit margins and wages, reflecting worsened trading gains…In the current phase, it is possible that both shocks could occur at the same time…”.
- The BoE has raised concerns over plans to cut the capital requirements of specialist trading firms, the FT reported; BoE officials are worried they could increase financial stability risks by making firms less able to withstand a crisis.
- The RBNZ is to release details on how the MPC members vote, making the votes publicly available when a consensus is not reached.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8628 vs exp. 6.8414 (prev. 6.8608).
- NBH Governor Varga said that the forint gains have helped the Bank reach its inflation target.
- BoK official said that we act if needed to stabilise financial markets and monitor the Middle East conflict.
- BCB cuts 25bps to 14.50%, as expected; decision was unanimous and it affirms serenity and caution in the conduct of monetary policy.
Fixed Income
- Overall, a contained session for fixed benchmarks. USTs lifted off overnight 110-07+ lows across the European morning, up to an 110-15+ high but with gains of just a few ticks at most. Action that comes as the space eases off the hawkish lows delivered after the Fed and Powell (recap on the board).
- Ahead, the US is focused on PCE, consensus chimes with the guidance from Chair Powell last night. Recent pricing data has shown that energy was the primary driver, with the core offering some relative relief as such. Though, PCE-related PPI components suggest service pressures remain sticky. Policy implications would be in line with the direction of the series, though a cooler print would likely provide only temporary relief given the clear signs of persistent price pressures elsewhere.
- Bunds in the red, though only by c. 5 ticks. Got to a 110-07 base before rebounding a touch, though only as high as 124.75, where it was briefly flat. EZ Flash HICP sparked no real reaction, sticks to the narrative that price pressures remain broadly confined to the headline measures. Ahead, the ECB is expected to maintain rates, a decision merited by the relatively limited amount of data, no overt signs of second-round effects and uncertainty on the duration of the shock and degree of pass-through.
- Gilts gapped lower by 29 ticks and then slipped another five to an 85.90 low, an open that took out Wednesday’s 85.98 base and notched a fresh contract low. Amidst this, the UK 10yr yield got to a 5.09% peak, nearing but not testing the recent 23rd March peak at 5.12%. Ahead, attention on the BoE, where a hold is expected, and while 9-0 is technically the base case , dissent on both the dovish and hawkish side of things is very possible. Overall, we are mainly after hints from the MPC itself, and the individual statements and press conference around the timing of the next move, though neither the statement nor Bailey are likely to be that explicit at this stage. Gilts are currently incrementally in the green, amidst a recent bout of pressure in the energy space.
- Japan sold JPY 2.8tln 2-year JGBs: Average yield 1.407%, b/c 5.24x, price tail 0bps.
- China allocates CNY 91.5bln in special bonds for equipment upgrades.
Commodities
- In geopolitics, US CENTCOM is set to brief President Trump on new military options for Iran, including potential strikes, Hormuz intervention, and uranium seizure operations, according to Axios. Meanwhile, the US blockade remains the core strategy, with Trump calling it “genius” and refusing to lift it without a nuclear deal. Elsewhere, Iran is threatening “unprecedented military action” if the blockade continues, while economic pressure is intensifying internally. The US is pushing to form a global maritime coalition to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On this note, US CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper will brief Trump on Thursday on new Iran military plans, with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine also attending, according to Axios.
- WTI June and Brent July futures are firmer as de-escalation efforts between US and Iran seem futile, with neither side publicly willing to move on demand. WTI resides in a USD 106.39-110.93/bbl range and Brent in a USD 109.63-114.70/bbl parameter. Do note that a bout of pressure was seen in the crude complex, taking contracts towards lows – a move which lacked a clear driver. Dutch TTF holds a mild upward bias and found some resistance at EUR 49/MWh before waning to near EUR 47/MWh.
- Spot gold and silver are firmer as the DXY falls on recent JPY strength following the “final warning” from Japan’s Top currency diplomat with regards to JPY intervention, with Japanese Finance Minister Katayama earlier sparking JPY strength as she said the timing to take decisive action is near – which comes ahead of the Japanese market holidays between May 3rd-6th. Spot gold has topped yesterday’s high to trade in a current USD 4,539-4,629/oz.
- Base metals are also benefiting from the softer USD coupled with above-forecast Chinese RatingDog and NBS Manufacturing PMIs. 3M LME copper resides in a 12,977.97- 13,120.35/t range at the time of writing.
- California gasoline price tops USD 6/gallon for first time since 2023, Bloomberg reported.
- IEA’s Birol said oil prices over USD 120/bbl is putting a lot of pressure on many countries.
- Oman crude OSP calculated at USD 104.73/bbl for June (prev. USD 124.05/bbl in May).
- Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi reportedly to announce naphtha supply secured “until the new year”, Nikkei reported.
- Russia’s Novak said OPEC+ to evaluate possibilities to supply global oil market at May 3 meeting, IFX reported.
- China reportedly to allow state refiners to export some fuels to Asia buyers.
- Fire at Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery has been extinguished, regional Governor said.
- Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said UAE exit does not mean a price war, reiterates there are no plans to leave OPEC+, IFX reported. OPEC+ will continue working together.
- The Japanese Government is considering reviving power and gas subsidies this summer, according to sources; Plan is to use reserve funds and no extra budget eyed for now.
- The Iranian oil minister has urged the public to reduce energy consumption, while dismissing the impact of the US naval blockade, CNN reported; the government has instructed government offices to cut electricity use by up to 70%.
- Iran’s delegation to the UN said its enriched uranium is under the full supervision of the IAEA.
- Indonesia set May Crude Palm Oil reference price at USD 1,049/mt.
- US National Emergency Dominance Council Director Agun is set to travel to Venezuela on Thursday for meetings with oil, gas and mining execs.
- Fire at PDVSA’s Cardon refinery’s FCC unit is reportedly under control.
Geopolitics
- Russia’s Novak said OPEC+ to evaluate possibilities to supply global oil market at May 3 meeting, IFX reported.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is to seek clarification from the US, on details of Russia’s ceasefire proposal; Ukraine’s proposal is a long term ceasefire.
- Fire at Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery has been extinguished, regional Governor said.
- Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said UAE exit does not mean a price war, reiterates there are no plans to leave OPEC+, IFX reported. OPEC+ will continue working together.
- The EU is preparing a package of short-term benefits for Ukraine, which would include greater market access and deeper participation in EU programmes, Politico reported citing diplomats.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: United States Mar Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior -0.07%
- 8:30 am: United States Mar Personal Spending, est. 0.9%, prior 0.5%
- 8:30 am: United States Mar PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 2.8%
- 8:30 am: United States Mar Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
- 8:30 am: United States Mar Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3.2%, prior 2.97%
- 8:30 am: United States Apr 25 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212k, prior 214k
- 8:30 am: United States Apr 18 Continuing Claims, est. 1815k, prior 1821k
- 8:30 am: United States 1Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.8%, prior 0.7%
- 8:30 am: United States 1Q A GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.25%, prior 0.5%
- 8:30 am: United States 1Q A Personal Consumption, est. 1.4%, prior 1.9%
- 8:30 am: United States 1Q A GDP Price Index, est. 3.9%, prior 3.7%
- 8:30 am: United States 1Q A Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 4.1%, prior 2.7%
- 9:45 am: United States Apr MNI Chicago PMI, est. 54.85, prior 52.8
- 10:00 am: United States Mar Leading Index, est. -0.2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After a hugely eventful 24 hours in markets, the newsflow has shown no sign of easing this morning, with Brent crude up +5.96% overnight to $125.06/bbl. Significantly, that’s its highest intraday level since the Iran conflict began, and with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, that’s fed growing fears about an extended stagflationary shock. The market impact of that is already clear, particularly for sovereign bonds, and overnight we’ve seen Japan’s 10yr yield move up to 2.51%, which would be its highest closing level since 1997. It was a similar story in Europe too, with the 10yr bund yield at a post-2011 high of 3.11%, whilst 10yr gilt yields hit a post-2008 high of 5.07%. So there was little sign of respite anywhere, and that’s before we even discuss the Fed’s latest decision and earnings from 4 of the Mag 7 companies.
The main catalyst for the latest jump in oil prices was a report from Axios, suggesting that an escalation in the conflict was still being considered as an option. And overnight, they’ve reported that Trump is set to receive a briefing today on potential plans for military action. According to that article, US Central Command had prepared a “short and powerful” wave of strikes that would aim to break the negotiating deadlock. Moreover, that followed a post from Trump earlier in the day, which said that “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!”
With no sign of any peace talks and fears mounting about an escalation, oil prices have continued their gains of recent days. Indeed, even before the overnight jump, Brent crude was already up +6.08% yesterday to $118.03/bbl, marking an 8th consecutive increase. In addition, investors are pricing in a more protracted conflict as well, as longer-dated futures have moved up to their highest levels of the conflict so far. For example, the 6-month Brent future is at $91.49/bbl this morning, having not previously closed above $90/bbl in this conflict.
All that follows an eventful decision from the Fed yesterday. They kept rates on hold as expected, but there were notably 4 dissents, which is the most for an FOMC decision since 1992. That included Governor Miran, who supported a 25bp rate cut once again. But we also saw three of the regional Fed Presidents – Hammack, Kashkari and Logan – make a hawkish dissent over the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement. In the subsequent press conference, Chair Powell acknowledged a “vigorous” debate about the guidance language, commenting that the centre of the FOMC was also “moving toward a more neutral place” but that “a majority of us didn’t feel like we needed to send a signal on that right now”. He also said that the“policy stance is in a good place for us to hold” amid the uncertainty stemming from the Middle East, and our US economists write that it reinforces their baseline view that the policy rate is likely to remain unchanged this year.
Aside from policy, the other big news was that Chair Powell will stay on as a Fed Governor once his four-year term as Chair ends on May 15. As a reminder, Fed Governors have a 14-year term separate to the 4-year term as Chair, and Powell’s 14-year seat on the board goes up to January 2028, so he’d retain a vote on policy if he stays. Powell said this would be “for a period of time, to be determined”, and that he wouldn’t leave the board until the DoJ’s investigation “is well and truly over, with transparency and finality”. That decision means that the incoming chair would need to take over Governor Miran’s board seat, who voted for a 25bp cut at this meeting. There was also an update on the next chair yesterday, as the Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate, leaving him on track to take over as Chair next month when Powell’s term expires.
For markets, the combination of higher oil prices and a more hawkishly divided Fed saw investors price out rate cuts this year, with futures for the December meeting pricing 3bps of hikes by the close. Moreover, the path ahead is increasingly turning hawkish, with futures now pricing a 55% probability of a Fed hike by next April. So that helped Treasury yields to jump across the curve, with 2yr yields (+11.3bps) seeing their largest spike since October to 3.95%. And further out the curve, the 10yr yield (+8.4bps) reached 4.43%, and the 30yr (+6.7bps) was back at 5.00%, the highest since July for both.
In the meantime, US equities had a muted session yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.04%) and the NASDAQ (+0.04%) little changed. But the equity mood then turned more positive after the close, with Alphabet rising in post-market trading as it led a decent set of Mag-7 earnings. Its shares climbed by +6.6% after market, as it reported stronger-than-expected cloud revenue growth ($20.0bn vs. $18.4bn estimate) and a near doubling in its backlog of contracted work. Otherwise, Amazon rose over +2% after-hours after delivering the strongest growth in Amazon Web Services revenue since 2022 (+28% vs +25.7% est.). Microsoft’s cloud revenue growth was more in line with expectations (+39% vs +38.2% est.), with the company projecting a modest acceleration in H2. Meanwhile, Meta fell back after last night’s results, down -7% after-hours as its revenue guidance came in line with expectations but the 2026 CAPEX plan was raised by $20bn to $125-145bn.
In Asia this morning, those stagflation concerns are still top of mind, with losses across the region. For instance, the Nikkei (-1.48%), the Hang Seng (-1.23%) and the KOSPI (-1.13%) have all seen decent falls, although in mainland China, the CSI 300 (-0.01%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.09%) are both little changed. Those losses have extended to US and European equity futures as well, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.23%) and the DAX (-0.82%) both pointing to fresh declines.
Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight today, as we’ve got decisions from both the ECB and the Bank of England. For the ECB, it’s widely expected they’ll keep their deposit rate on hold at 2%. But given Europe’s exposure to the energy shock, markets are fully pricing in a hike at the next meeting in June, so the question today is whether the ECB validates that view. Our European economists think there’s still too much uncertainty about what happens to energy prices and the extent to which that propagates into inflation, so the ECB will want to gather more information before deciding in June whether to hike or not. In the meantime, they think the ECB will retain some hawkish optionality and emphasise a meeting-by-meeting approach to decisions. For more info, see their full preview here.
For the Bank of England, it’s also widely expected they’ll leave rates unchanged today, keeping them at 3.75%. Our UK economist expects they’ll emphasise the two-sided risks to the outlook, with a cut to their growth forecasts and an increase for inflation. He writes that their forecasts and scenario projections will be important signalling tools, and he thinks that one thing to look out for will be where they put their 2yr and 3yr CPI projections. That’s because a protracted CPI overshoot would be hawkish, whereas CPI at or below 2% on a 2yr or 3yr forecast horizons would be construed as marginally dovish.
Ahead of those decisions, European markets had struggled yesterday, as the uptick in oil prices led to growing fears of a lasting stagflationary shock. Indeed, the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+23.3bps) hit a three-year high of 3.87%, and markets are now pricing in 83bps of ECB rate hikes by the December meeting, up +10.9bps on the day. So collectively, that pushed yields up to new highs across the continent, with the 10yr bund yield (+4.3bps) closing at a new post-2011 high of 3.11%. Similarly in the UK, the 10yr gilt yield (+6.7bps) hit a post-2008 high of 5.07%, whilst the 30yr yield (+3.5bps) hit a post-1998 high of 5.72%. Moreover, there was little respite for equities either, with the STOXX 600 (-0.60%) hitting a three-week low.
Finally, we did get a few noteworthy data releases yesterday. In Germany, the flash CPI print for April surprised on the downside, with the EU-harmonised reading only up to +2.9% (vs. +3.1% expected). So that added to hopes that the Euro Area print today might come in softer as well. Otherwise, we had a batch of US data, which included the strongest housing starts since December 2024, at an annualised rate of 1.502m in March (vs. 1.380m expected). Meanwhile, the preliminary reading for durable goods orders was also above expectations in March, rising +0.8% (vs. +0.5% expected).
Looking at the day ahead, the main highlights will be the policy decisions from the ECB and the Bank of England. Otherwise, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for April, US PCE inflation for March, and the Q1 GDP releases from the US and the Euro Area. We’ll also get the US weekly initial jobless claims, the Euro Area unemployment rate for March, and German unemployment for April. Finally, Apple will release its latest earnings.
1 b) European opening report
USD/JPY pressured after Katayama/Mimura verbal intervention, NQ outperforms after tech earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 05:42 AM
- US CENTCOM is to brief US President Trump on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday, Axios reported, citing sources. The plan includes a short and powerful strike, potentially targeting infrastructure to break the nuclear issue deadlock.
- The Axios report initially lifted the crude complex, but contracts have recently slipped towards lows, lacking a clear driver.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry says channels of dialogue with officials in Washington and Tehran remain open, Al Hadath reports.
- European bourses are broadly lower, but have clambered off worst levels.
- US equity futures are flat/incrementally firmer. In pre-market trade; Qualcomm (+11%), Google (+5.9%), Amazon (+2%) are all higher after earnings, whilst Microsoft (-1.8%) and Meta (-7.8%), extend lower.
- DXY is under pressure, USD/JPY sinks below the 160.00 mark after FinMin Katayama warned that they are “nearing” the time to take bold FX steps.
- Fixed benchmarks hold a slight bearish bias, but off worst levels heading into the ECB and BoE.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index (Q1/Mar), US GDP Growth Rate (Q1), Jobless Claims (Apr/25), US Chicago PMI (Apr), ECB Policy Announcement (Apr), BoE Policy Announcement & MPR (Apr), CBRT Minutes (Apr). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
MIDDLE EAST
- US CENTCOM is to brief US President Trump on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday, Axios reported citing sources; plan includes a short and powerful strike potentially targeting infrastructure to break the nuclear issue deadlock. Other options expected to be presented include a plan to take over part of the Strait to allow for commercial shipping, which could involve ground forces, and a special forces op to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile.
- US CENTCOM has asked to send the Army’s hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
- US CENTCOM said the US navy has redirected 42 vessels from the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and that the military is fully committed to enforcing the blockade.
- US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu that Israel should only take surgical military action in Lebanon and avoid a full resumption of the war, Axios reported.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said sprinting for the finish line with Iran, according to Fox Business; willing to do secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers. Every day adding more economic pressure to Iran. Close to half a billion in Iran-related crypto seized. Consumers and stock market are looking through Iran. UAE and others have requested swap lines, swap lines are not a bailout.
- Iran lawmaker Mottaki says a naval blockade would amount to a declaration of war, and that fighters could decide as soon as tomorrow or next week to remove such obstacles via military action.
- Iran’s Navy Commander said the Islamic Republic will soon unveil a new weapon that would deeply terrify the enemy, IRNA reported. He said Iran has closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian Sea. Condemned the US’s illegal seizure of several Iranian vessels as part of the blockade, which he said amounted not only to “piracy” but also “hostage-taking”.
- Iran’s Navy commander warns that Iran will soon face its enemies with a very dreadful weapon that will strike fear into their hearts, according to Press TV.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said channels of dialogue with officials in Washington and Tehran remain open, Al Hadath reported. ““The clock on diplomacy has snit stopped. We remain hopeful for a negotiated settlement on this issue. We will continue with our sincerest efforts”,.
- China’s Military said they conducted combat readiness patrols near Scarborough Shoal, according to a statement.
- “No point” in negotiating over zero enrichment, Iranian lawmaker said, Al Jazeera reported; adding “I have no objection to going to the negotiating table, but we should have looked more closely at how to proceed”.
- The US administration is asking countries to join a new international coalition that would enable ships to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ reported. The Maritime Freedom Construct would be a US-led coalition that would share information, coordinate diplomatically and enforce sanctions.
- A surveillance drone near the US embassy in Baghdad has been shot down, according to Iraqi security sources.
- Iranian Navy Commander said we have closed the Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian sea side and will take swift action if enemy advances, Al Araby reported.
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) started the session broadly in the red, but have attempted to move higher as the morning progressed; currently towards highs. From an index standpoint, the FTSE 100 (+0.5%) and the AEX (+0.5%) lead, whilst the FTSE MIB (-0.5%) lags. Initial downbeat sentiment stemmed from an Axios report which suggested that the US CENTCOM is to brief President Trump about military options in Iran on Thursday. Ahead, focus will be on the ECB and BoE policy announcements, where both are expected to stand pat on rates, but focus will be on any hawkish guidance. (Previews in the Research Suite)
- European sectors initially held a negative bias, but are now mixed. Basic Resources took the top spot, buoyed by strength in gold prices and after Glencore (+2%) reported a 19% jump in copper output. Utilities takes the second spot, led higher by United Utilities (+10%) after strong results and announcing an equity raise to fund a multi-billion dollar investment plan. Media is found at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Autos; the latter has been driven lower by Stellantis (-7.4%), where shares have slumped on a tariff-adjusted miss.
- US equity futures are flat/incrementally firmer, but contracts are holding an upward bias, following European peers higher. There were several key US earnings reports published after-hours, in brief; Qualcomm (+11), Google (+5.9%), Amazon (+2%) are all higher after earnings, whilst Microsoft (-1.8%) and Meta (-7.8%), extend lower.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
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FX
- G10 FX are mostly stronger against the Buck after DXY fell on remarks from Japanese Finance Minister who said “getting closer to taking decisive steps in FX“, and Mimura, the top FX diplomat, said “This is the final warning before FX action”. This strong commentary saw USD/JPY fall 80 pips on Katayama, then a further 30+ ticks on Mimura’s remarks.
- USD/JPY, as mentioned, trades higher by around 0.6% as commentary from both officials proved more hawkish than previous verbal intervention attempts which failed to propel the JPY.
- EUR/USD trades a touch below the 1.17 mark in choppy trade, with the FOMC and decent JPY moves failing to knock the single currency ahead of the ECB meeting. Full preview in the Newsquawk research suite. This morning, EZ inflation ticked up from the prior but broadly in line with expectations. There was no real reaction from the series, which sticks to the narrative that price pressures remain broadly confined to the headline measures, with the core figures steady or actually moderating from the last reading. On Energy, that lifted to 10.9% (prev. 5.1%) and remains the primary contributor to the headline rate.
- EUR/GBP is also unchanged into the BoE and MPR, where it is expected to hold rates in a 9-0 vote split, with risks towards a dovish and/or hawkish dissent a possibility. Focus will be on any clues or hints towards the timing of the next move, and the MPC’s current view on market pricing. In terms of UK Politics, The Times reported that Former deputy PM Rayner is said to be weighing up mounting a direct challenge for the leadership after next week’s local elections. Rayner is regarded as the most left-wing candidate, and also the bookies’ favourite.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama says timing to take decisive action is near; “we are getting closer to taking decisive steps in FX”; have long mentioned possible bold action on FX; monitoring FX while on holiday.
- Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura says this is the final warning before action is taken; speculative moves in FX are mounting; getting closer to taking decisive steps; seeing speculative activity in FX market.
- US will reportedly seek forfeiture of Iran-linked oil tankers seized at sea.
FIXED INCOME
- Overall, a contained session for fixed benchmarks. USTs lifted off overnight 110-07+ lows across the European morning, up to an 110-15+ high but with gains of just a few ticks at most. Action that comes as the space eases off the hawkish lows delivered after the Fed and Powell (recap on the board).
- Ahead, the US is focused on PCE, consensus chimes with the guidance from Chair Powell last night. Recent pricing data has shown that energy was the primary driver, with the core offering some relative relief as such. Though, PCE-related PPI components suggest service pressures remain sticky. Policy implications would be in line with the direction of the series, though a cooler print would likely provide only temporary relief given the clear signs of persistent price pressures elsewhere.
- Bunds in the red, though only by c. 5 ticks. Got to a 110-07 base before rebounding a touch, though only as high as 124.75, where it was briefly flat. EZ Flash HICP sparked no real reaction, sticks to the narrative that price pressures remain broadly confined to the headline measures. Ahead, the ECB is expected to maintain rates, a decision merited by the relatively limited amount of data, no overt signs of second-round effects and uncertainty on the duration of the shock and degree of pass-through.
- Gilts gapped lower by 29 ticks and then slipped another five to an 85.90 low, an open that took out Wednesday’s 85.98 base and notched a fresh contract low. Amidst this, the UK 10yr yield got to a 5.09% peak, nearing but not testing the recent 23rd March peak at 5.12%. Ahead, attention on the BoE, where a hold is expected, and while 9-0 is technically the base case , dissent on both the dovish and hawkish side of things is very possible. Overall, we are mainly after hints from the MPC itself, and the individual statements and press conference around the timing of the next move, though neither the statement nor Bailey are likely to be that explicit at this stage. Gilts are currently incrementally in the green, amidst a recent bout of pressure in the energy space.
- Japan sold JPY 2.8tln 2-year JGBs: Average yield 1.407%, b/c 5.24x, price tail 0bps.
- China allocates CNY 91.5bln in special bonds for equipment upgrades.
COMMODITIES
- In geopolitics, US CENTCOM is set to brief President Trump on new military options for Iran, including potential strikes, Hormuz intervention, and uranium seizure operations, according to Axios. Meanwhile, the US blockade remains the core strategy, with Trump calling it “genius” and refusing to lift it without a nuclear deal. Elsewhere, Iran is threatening “unprecedented military action” if the blockade continues, while economic pressure is intensifying internally. The US is pushing to form a global maritime coalition to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On this note, US CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper will brief Trump on Thursday on new Iran military plans, with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine also attending, according to Axios.
- WTI June and Brent July futures are firmer as de-escalation efforts between US and Iran seem futile, with neither side publicly willing to move on demand. WTI resides in a USD 106.39-110.93/bbl range and Brent in a USD 109.63-114.70/bbl parameter. Do note that a bout of pressure was seen in the crude complex, taking contracts towards lows – a move which lacked a clear driver. Dutch TTF holds a mild upward bias and found some resistance at EUR 49/MWh before waning to near EUR 47/MWh.
- Spot gold and silver are firmer as the DXY falls on recent JPY strength following the “final warning” from Japan’s Top currency diplomat with regards to JPY intervention, with Japanese Finance Minister Katayama earlier sparking JPY strength as she said the timing to take decisive action is near – which comes ahead of the Japanese market holidays between May 3rd-6th. Spot gold has topped yesterday’s high to trade in a current USD 4,539-4,629/oz.
- Base metals are also benefiting from the softer USD coupled with above-forecast Chinese RatingDog and NBS Manufacturing PMIs. 3M LME copper resides in a 12,977.97- 13,120.35/t range at the time of writing.
- California gasoline price tops USD 6/gallon for first time since 2023, Bloomberg reported.
- IEA’s Birol said oil prices over USD 120/bbl is putting a lot of pressure on many countries.
- Oman crude OSP calculated at USD 104.73/bbl for June (prev. USD 124.05/bbl in May).
- Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi reportedly to announce naphtha supply secured “until the new year”, Nikkei reported.
- Russia’s Novak said OPEC+ to evaluate possibilities to supply global oil market at May 3 meeting, IFX reported.
- China reportedly to allow state refiners to export some fuels to Asia buyers.
- Fire at Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery has been extinguished, regional Governor said.
- Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said UAE exit does not mean a price war, reiterates there are no plans to leave OPEC+, IFX reported. OPEC+ will continue working together.
- The Japanese Government is considering reviving power and gas subsidies this summer, according to sources; Plan is to use reserve funds and no extra budget eyed for now.
- The Iranian oil minister has urged the public to reduce energy consumption, while dismissing the impact of the US naval blockade, CNN reported; the government has instructed government offices to cut electricity use by up to 70%.
- Iran’s delegation to the UN said its enriched uranium is under the full supervision of the IAEA.
- Indonesia set May Crude Palm Oil reference price at USD 1,049/mt.
- US National Emergency Dominance Council Director Agun is set to travel to Venezuela on Thursday for meetings with oil, gas and mining execs.
- Fire at PDVSA’s Cardon refinery’s FCC unit is reportedly under control.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- POLITICO, citing UK Officials, said May 8 looks set to be a moment of real danger for the PM; said a long-time critic promised to go public with a call for PM Starmer to step down if results are as bad as expected.
- US President Trump posted that the US is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of troops in Germany with a determination to be made over a short period of time.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- EU Super Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Apr) Y/Y 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.1% (Prev. 2.3%); Core 2.1% vs exp. 2.3% (prev. 2.2%).
- EU GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q1) Y/Y 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.2%).
- EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash (Apr) M/M 1% (Prev. 1.3%).
- EU GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q1) Q/Q 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%).
- EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Apr) Y/Y 3.0% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.6%); Services 3.0% (prev. 3.2%).
- EU Unemployment Rate (Mar) 6.2% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 6.2%).
- Italian Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Apr) M/M 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.5%).
- Italian Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Apr) Y/Y 2.8% (Prev. 1.7%).
- Italian Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.3%).
- Italian GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q1) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
- Italian GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv (Q1) Y/Y 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%).
- German GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q1) Q/Q 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%).
- German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q1) Y/Y 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%).
- German Unemployment Rate (Apr) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%).
- German Unemployed Persons (Apr) 3.006M (Prev. 2.977M).
- German Unemployment Change (Apr) 20K vs. Exp. 5K (Prev. 0K).
- German Import Prices MoM (Mar) M/M 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 0.3%).
- German Retail Sales MoM (Mar) M/M -2.0% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.6%).
- German Retail Sales YoY (Mar) Y/Y -2.0% (Prev. 0.7%).
- German Import Prices YoY (Mar) Y/Y 2.3% (Prev. -2.3%).
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q1) Q/Q 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.8%).
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q1) Y/Y 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%).
- French PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 0.20% (Prev. -2.4%).
- French PPI MoM (Mar) M/M 2.0% (Prev. -0.2%).
- French prelim. HICP (Apr): 2.5% Y/Y vs exp. 2.3% (prev. 2.0%); 1.2% M/M vs exp. 0.9% (prev. 1.1%).
- French Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Apr) M/M 1% vs. Exp. 1% (Prev. 1%).
- French Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Apr) Y/Y 2.2% (Prev. 1.7%). Insee “The increase in inflation should again be driven by the sharp acceleration in energy prices (+14.2% over a year after +7.4% in March), in particular those of petroleum products.”.
- French Private Non Farm Payrolls QoQ Prel (Q1) Q/Q -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%).
- French Household Consumption MoM (Mar) M/M 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -1.4%).
- French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q1) Y/Y 1.1% (Prev. 1.2%).
- French GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q1) Q/Q 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%).
NOTABLE EUROPEAN EQUITY HEADLINES
- Unilever (ULVR LN) Q1 2026 Trading Statement: Underlying Sales +3.8% (exp. 3.7%); FY26 outlook unchanged with USG at lower end of 4-6% and modest margin improvement expected.
- Glencore (GLEN LN) Q1 Production Report: Maintains FY production guidance; Copper production 199.6kt (prev. 167.9kt Y/Y), Cobalt 5.8kt (prev. 9.5kt Y/Y), Zinc 176.9kt (prev. 213.6kt Y/Y), Nickel 17.2kt (prev. 18.8kt Y/Y), Gold 68koz (prev. 145koz Y/Y).
CENTRAL BANKS
- Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged in 2026 (prev. forecasted cuts in Sep and Dec), expects 25bps of rate cuts each in Jan’27 and Mar’27.
- US President Trump posted that Jerome “Too Late” Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can’t get a job anywhere else.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said it is highly unusual for Powell to stay on the Fed board, calling it an insult and violation of norms; adds Warsh will be Fed Chair on time.
- BoJ maintains May outright bond buying operations at the same levels as April.
- BoJ Outlook Report: weak JPY pushes up prices for a wide range of good services, thereby giving a bigger boost to core consumer inflation; impact of a weak JPY shock is bigger than that of oil shock. “…while a yen depreciation shock tends to lead to a rise in the GDP deflator through wage increases and greater profit margins, an increased crude oil price shock tends to cause a decline in the GDP deflator through compressed profit margins and wages, reflecting worsened trading gains…In the current phase, it is possible that both shocks could occur at the same time…”.
- The BoE has raised concerns over plans to cut the capital requirements of specialist trading firms, the FT reported; BoE officials are worried they could increase financial stability risks by making firms less able to withstand a crisis.
- The RBNZ is to release details on how the MPC members vote, making the votes publicly available when a consensus is not reached.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8628 vs exp. 6.8414 (prev. 6.8608).
- NBH Governor Varga said that the forint gains have helped the Bank reach its inflation target.
- BoK official said that we act if needed to stabilise financial markets and monitor the Middle East conflict.
- BCB cuts 25bps to 14.50%, as expected; decision was unanimous and it affirms serenity and caution in the conduct of monetary policy.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US House has approved a Republican plan making way for a USD 70bln bill for ICE and Border Patrol.
- The White House opposes Anthropic’s plan to expand access to Mythos due to national security concerns and worries about computing power, WSJ reported citing sources.
- US Senators are to introduce legislation to tighten ban on Chinese vehicles.
- The US House has passed a three-year extension of the FISA re-authorisation.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia’s Novak said OPEC+ to evaluate possibilities to supply global oil market at May 3 meeting, IFX reported.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is to seek clarification from the US, on details of Russia’s ceasefire proposal; Ukraine’s proposal is a long term ceasefire.
- Fire at Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery has been extinguished, regional Governor said.
- Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said UAE exit does not mean a price war, reiterates there are no plans to leave OPEC+, IFX reported. OPEC+ will continue working together.
- The EU is preparing a package of short-term benefits for Ukraine, which would include greater market access and deeper participation in EU programmes, Politico reported citing diplomats.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little lower this morning and trades around USD 76k, whilst Ethereum underperforms and hovers around USD 2.2k.
APAC TRADE
- Asia-Pac stocks traded with a negative bias, as weakness stateside in cash hours, earnings and recent geopolitical updates drive price action. More recently, Axios reported that US CENTCOM is to brief President Trump on new plans for potential military action, which is to include a short and powerful strike to break the nuclear issue deadlock.
- ASX 200 printed modest losses. IT and Tech topped the sector pile while consumer staples and mining underperformed.
- Nikkei 225 returned from holiday closure with losses in excess of 1%, returning to the 59,000 handle. Fujitsu weighed on the index after the Co.’s Q4 op. profit and FY forecast missed estimates. On the other hand, TDK was one of the outperformers, following FY net that rose by around 20%.
- KOSPI lacked direction, trading either side of the unchanged mark. Initial upside came after Samsung Electronics reported Q1 earnings that beat top- and bottom-line metrics. However, the earlier gains were erased as trade continued. LG Electronics held onto its earlier gains, after the Co. reported Q1 net that beat expectations.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed, with the Hang Seng the clear underperformer. Stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMIs failed to support the indices, while China Construction Bank printed losses following its Q2 earnings.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura said this is the final warning before action is taken; speculative moves in FX are mounting; getting closer to taking decisive steps; seeing speculative activity in FX market.
- South Korea to launch 24hr USD/KRW trade from end-June.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Japanese Consumer Confidence (Apr) 32.2 vs. Exp. 33.1 (Prev. 33.3).
- Japanese Industrial Production MoM Prel (Mar) M/M -0.5% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. -2.0%).
- Japanese Industrial Production YoY Prel (Mar) Y/Y 2.3% (Prev. 0.4%).
- Japanese Retail Sales MoM (Mar) M/M 1.3% (Prev. -2.0%).
- Japanese Retail Sales YoY (Mar) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -0.2%).
- Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Apr) M/M 52.2 vs exp. 50.9 (prev. 50.8).
- Chinese NBS General PMI (Apr) 50.1 (Prev. 50.5).
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 50.3 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.4).
- Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 50.1).
- Australian Export Prices QoQ (Q1) Q/Q 0.5% (Prev. 3.2%).
- Australian Import Prices QoQ (Q1) Q/Q 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 0.9%).
- Australian Private Sector Credit YoY (Mar) Y/Y 8.1% (Prev. 7.8%).
- Australian Private Sector Credit MoM (Mar) M/M 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Australian Housing Credit MoM (Mar) M/M 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%).
1 c) Asian opening report
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
JAPAN
Japan Interveneed In FX Market To Buy Yen
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 10:02 AM
With Brent surging to a new post war high overnight, rising as high as $125 on fear of an imminent resumption of hostilities in Iran, which dragged yields higher, and also pushed the USDJPY above 160 for the first time since late March, overnight Japan made clear – again – it wouldn’t take it any more, with the usual round of jawboning.
- *KATAYAMA: WE ARE MONITORING FX MARKET WHILE YOU ARE ON HOLIDAY
- *KATAYAMA: WE ARE NEARING TIMING TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ON FX
Then
- *MIMURA: WE ARE NEARING TIME TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ON FX
- *MIMURA: THIS IS MY FINAL WARNING BEFORE ACTION
Then
- *JAPAN PM TAKAICHI HOLDS PHONE TALKS WITH IRAN PRESIDENT: KYODO
- JAPAN PM TAKAICHI: I HAVE WORKED TO ENSURE PASSAGE OF JAPANESE-RELATED VESSEL THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ” RTRS
And while the market had grown used to constant jawboning by Japanese officials, this time Japan finally put its money where its mouth was, and with the USDJPY extending gains after all this verbal diarrhea, at precisely 4am ET, or just as Japan was closing (as we head into a long weekend, with most of Asia off tomorrow and Japan kicking off with golden week starting Monday to Wednesday 6th May), the USDJPY tumbled sharply, and then continued to slide for the next 4 hours, plunging as much as 500 pips to a session low of 155.57.
The move which strengthened the yen by the most since 2023…
… immediately prompted speculation of intervention by Japan’s authorities, especially since in recent weeks Japan had been jawboning not only against the yen but also oil prices, which mysteriously also tumbled from a multi year high.
There were early signs that Japan was indeed involved, with some 57BN in USDJPY volumes this morning, far above normal average. Note, previous intervention volumes in 2022 and 2024, EBS volumes had gotten up to around 70BN (for 29apr24 and 21oct22). On Friday 23 January 2026 on US rate check day – EBS volumes got to around 50BN.
And while normally we would have to wait days if not weeks for confirmation that the BOJ was in the market, today mercifully we got confirmation early on when the Nikkei reported that the Japanese Finance Ministry and the Bank of Japan carried out exchange rate intervention to buy yen and sell dollars on Thursday. A government official confirmed to Nikkei fact of intervention in an interview with the Nikkei.
“The government and the Bank of Japan intervened again, buying yen, causing the yen to surge against the dollar to the 155 yen target”, the Nikkei reported.
There was no immediate comment on whether the BOJ was also intervening in oil, but it would not be surprising if they did (although it would be a first).
The problem for Japan, and the reason why the MOF/BOJ had held out for this long before intervening, is that by doing so they have once again blown their load, so to speak, and now the USDJPY has a clear path to rise even higher – our target is now 170 and potentially much higher since the BOJ so stubbornly refuses to raise rates, which means that either the yen or JGBs will have to be the buffer for Japan’s surging inflation.
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
3. CHINA/
CHINA/MALAYSIA
China Loses Monopoly Over The Rarest Of Rare Earths
Wednesday, Apr 29, 2026 – 07:40 PM
With less than three weeks to go the Trump-Xi summit in China, the scramble for leverage and superiority – whether in terms of the Iran war or the just as important supply chain of rare earths – is on. That explains why the Pentagon’s push to get its hands on the rarest of the rare-earth elements leads all the way to this small port city in Malaysia.
As the WSJ reports, Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths has begun pumping out heavy rare earths, the elusive kind that China dominates.
“No one had made a separated heavy rare earth outside of China in 20 years,” said Amanda Lacaze, Lynas’s chief executive. The company’s chief operating officer, Pol Le Roux, said it had actually been 30 years.
When China cut off exports of heavy rare-earth elements during trade tensions last year, automobile factories in the US and Europe were forced to stop production. Now, Lynas is at the vanguard of an effort by the US and allies to prevent Beijing from using its monopoly power to squeeze the rest of the world.
To minimize China’s monopoly on rare earth supply, the Pentagon has been opening its wallet in unusual ways to ensure supplies. In March 2026, Lynas announced a preliminary $96 million deal in which the Pentagon would purchase Lynas’s rare earths.
Others are in hot pursuit of the Pentagon’s money: Las Vegas-headquartered MP Materials, backed by billions of dollars in U.S. government support, is planning its own refinery for heavy rare earths that is set to come online later this year. And last week, USA Rare Earth announced a “transformative” $2.8 billion acquisition of Brazil’s Serra Verde Group, owner of the Pela Ema rare earth mine and processing plant in Goiás, Brazil, which is a “one-of-a-kind asset and the only producer outside Asia capable of supplying all four magnetic rare earths at scale, together with other vital REEs, such as Yttrium.”
Last month, Lynas began producing samarium oxide, a difficult-to-source rare earth in high military demand that is used in heat-resistant magnets for jet fighters and missiles.
“There is no doubt that 2025 was the wake-up call the United States needed to undertake bold industrial policy,” said Gracelin Baskaran, who leads the critical minerals program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Rare-earth minerals are actually not that rare when it comes to mining: it is the refining – usually a very toxic process – that is the bottleneck, which is why China which has zero environmental regulation, has become a global leader in their producftion. As the WSJ notes, rare earth minerals are already mined outside of China, including Lynas’s, which come from Western Australia. But to gain independence from Chinese supplies, “the hard part is building refining capacity. It often requires hundreds of stages to separate the rare earths using industrial acids.”
For more than a decade, Lynas has had a refinery here in Kuantan, a Malaysian chemical-industry center. But it only produced light rare earths, which tend to be more common, while it sold heavy rare earths to China for processing. Last year, as the U.S.-China trade war was at its peak, Lynas finished a new heavy rare-earths processor in Kuantan.
Eliminating China from the supply chain looks as follows: machinery whirs loudly as a rare-earth mixture is bathed in hydrochloric acid and gradually separated into pure oxides that can be shipped to customers. Terbium, used in powerful magnets, comes out a deep, rich brown. Dysprosium appears as a whitish powder.
Because of their small quantities, the heavy rare earths are fitted into knee-high 55-pound cans that could be worth tens of thousands of dollars, while less-valuable rare earths such as cerium are stuffed into 1800 pound sacks.
Heavy rare-earth elements are sprinkled in magnets so they can function at higher temperatures. That is important in cars and planes whose engines run hot.
Lynas and MP Materials are two of the leading Western rare-earths producers, and Washington wants more suppliers. In February, the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. extended $565 million in loans to Serra Verde, which operates a mine in Brazil with significant reserves of heavy rare earths. Then, as noted above, last week USA Rare Earth, the Stillwater, Okla., company that has recently commissioned equipment to make rare-earth magnets, said it would acquire Serra Verde in a deal valued at about $2.8 billion, part of an arrangement that will ensure a steady supply of heavy rare earths to the U.S.
Not everything has gone smoothly with U.S. efforts. Lynas has said there is “significant uncertainty” on whether it will go ahead with an effort to build a rare earth processing facility in Texas, which was allocated $258 million in Pentagon grant funding in 2023. The estimated project costs ballooned because of challenges in handling wastewater. Instead, Lynas is building out a second, larger heavy rare-earth processing facility in Kuantan, expected to be completed in 2028. Needless to say, environmental regulations are more “lax” in Malaysia.
The big break hit last month, when Lynas achieved commercial production of samarium. The mineral had been refined almost exclusively in China, causing a scramble among defense suppliers last year when China cut off exports in April. A report from the U.S. Geological Survey last year found samarium was the highest-risk mineral for disruption, with shortages potentially costing U.S. industry billions of dollars.
As the clock counts down to the Trump-Xi summit, where China still retains sole supplier monopoly across most rare earths, another clock is also counting down: American defense companies face a 2027 government deadline to ensure that no rare earths in their supply chain for magnets come from China. Lacaze said Lynas were supplying its non-Chinese rare earths to Japanese magnet makers that in turn supply the U.S. defense industry.
Still, Lacaze expressed concern that Western nations weren’t doing enough to ensure adequate demand. Military demand for rare earths is relatively small, so she advocated tax credits to induce larger commercial buyers—such as makers of cars and electronics—to choose non-Chinese rare-earth magnets.
Baskaran, the critical-minerals specialist, told the WSJ that the effort to achieve rare-earth independence was still in its early stages. “While momentum is real, translating these announcements into production takes years,” she said.
END
CHINA
China’s export divisons are now having severe problems
(zerohedge)
Private Sector Struggles In Major Chinese Industrial Base As Export Orders Shrink: Local Businessmen
Wednesday, Apr 29, 2026 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Amid China’s persistently sluggish economy, Zhejiang Province, a major production and industrial base in eastern China, is seeing a decline in trade orders as private enterprises struggle to stay afloat, according to industry professionals who spoke with The Epoch Times.
As the “hollowing out” of the private sector economy in mainland China intensifies, profit margins for industrial enterprises in Zhejiang have been under pressure since 2024, local industry insiders say.
The coastal province bordering the megacity of Shanghai is an economic powerhouse for China. It ranked fourth nationwide in gross domestic product last year, with its capital city of Hangzhou being the primary economic driver, along with other well-known commercial cities in the province such as Ningbo and Wenzhou, according to official data.
However, a large number of family-run export enterprises, which had previously served as pillars of the local county-level economies within the provinces, have had to cease operations in the face of shifting supply chains and shrinking orders over the past few years, according to Huang, an insider in Zhejiang’s textile industry who gave only her last name out of fear of reprisal from the Chinese regime.
“Profits have now dwindled to below 3 percent,” she told The Epoch Times. “Most garment factories are either operating at a loss or have gone under.”
The situation in Zhejiang has changed, Huang said.
“It is no longer the profitable place it once was,“ she said. ”For many enterprises, the issue isn’t merely low profit margins—they are actually reaching their breaking point.
“Private enterprises in the Jiangsu–Zhejiang region have long been regarded as a barometer of the economy.
“If even these firms in this region can no longer hold out and begin shutting down en masse, it signals that the problems facing the entire Chinese economy have become extremely severe.”
Inflated Economic Data
Although Zhejiang’s GDP growth rate appears relatively stable, “the reality is that fabricated data mask the grim operational realities faced by businesses on the ground,” Liu Mao, a businessman in Wenzhou who used a pseudonym out of fear of reprisal, told The Epoch Times.
“Foreign-invested enterprises in China face an operating environment constrained by hostility from authorities. Meanwhile, private domestic enterprises are subjected to tax audits and heavy fines. Under such layers of systematic exploitation, it is nearly impossible for any business—regardless of its nature—to survive.”
In recent years, the business environment in China has continued to deteriorate because of the Chinese regime’s inconsistent policies and tightened controls, as well as geopolitical tensions and increasing trade frictions between China and the West that have led to supply chain diversification. As a result, a significant number of foreign companies, and even some Chinese companies, have been moving their factories from China to Southeast Asian countries.
According to official data released by Hangzhou Customs, the total value of goods trade imports and exports in Zhejiang Province reached 1.38 trillion yuan (about $201.83 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 7.1 percent, marking the fourth consecutive quarter in which both imports and exports have registered positive growth.
However, Liu noted that the province’s export trade figures are heavily inflated.
“According to internal data I obtained from friends within the system, this year’s export volume actually declined compared to last year,“ he said. ”It certainly did not grow by 7.1 percent.
“My friends told me that the public export data reported by various localities is rife with fraud. Some regions engage in double-reporting or filing false tax returns to swindle government subsidies, while those in higher positions turn a blind eye. This country is beyond saving.”
Layoffs and Lowered Wages
As businesses continue to struggle, workers are facing layoffs along with increasing difficulties in finding other jobs, according to local industry professionals.
An Zhiqiang, who works in the electronics business in Hangzhou, told The Epoch Times that local private enterprises are all downsizing and laying off staff.
“Locals are unable to find work, making it even more difficult for people from other provinces,” he said.
“Since the spring, many of our local factories have had to halt production due to a lack of orders, and quite a few foreign-funded enterprises have pulled out as well.
“For instance, a Scandinavian company here that manufactures feed processing equipment has downsized its workforce from 80 employees to just 29, and further layoffs are expected.”
Amid the economic downturn characterized by reduced consumption and diminished purchasing power, the livestock industry’s demand for feed is also declining, resulting in sluggish sales for related equipment, according to An.
“Right now, industries across the board are downsizing,“ he said. ”The only places still hiring are essentially large foreign-funded enterprises—for instance, Japanese companies in Hangzhou. But they only recruit new staff to replace those who retire; consequently, only young applicants who aren’t afraid of hard work stand a chance.”
Currently, temporary workers are being paid 13 yuan ($1.91) per hour, whereas the government-mandated rate is 25 yuan ($3.66) per hour, he said.
“Although in the suburban districts of Tonglu and Chun’an, hourly rates of 22 yuan [$3.22] can still be found,” he said.
According to the latest official standards released in February, the minimum hourly wage in Hangzhou is 25 yuan ($3.66).
The current issue is not merely a shortage of jobs in Hangzhou, Liu said, “but rather that [all of] mainland China is undergoing a phase of accelerating economic downturn.”
Wang Yibo contributed to this report.
4 EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
ECB
RATES STEADY
ECB Holds Rates At 2%, As Expected, With Stagflation Looming
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 08:29 AM
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, with officials signaling they need more time to assess the extent of the Iran war’s jolt to the economy. The deposit rate was left at 2%, where it’s been since June 2025 and in line with the predictions of all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The ECB offered no guidance on future decisions, reiterating it will act one meeting at a time based on information as it arrives.
In the statement, the committee cited the usual stagflationary cocktail as cause for concern, namely upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified. As usual, they emphasize the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach and added that their assessment of the inflation outlook and its risks, will be informed by incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
“The upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified,” the Governing Council said on Thursday in a statement. The Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the current uncertainty.”
Commenting on the decision, DB’s Chief European Economist Mark Wall said that “the accompanying statement flags an intensification of risks. These are symmetric: upside risks to inflation, downside risks to growth. There remains a sense of calm confidence, with references to the resilience of the economy in recent quarters and longer-term inflation expectations remaining well-anchored. But there is also a sense of rising concern the longer the conflict in the Middle East continues. Overall, this is a statement that does not pre-commit the ECB to hiking in June. But it does not stop the ECB from hiking in June either.”
Here are the statement highlights:
RATES:
- ECB Governing Council holds three key interest rates unchanged
- Deposit facility rate held at 2.00% (exp. 2.00%)
- Main refinancing operations rate held at 2.15% (exp. 2.15%)
- Marginal lending facility rate held at 2.40% (exp. 2.40%)
GUIDANCE:
- ECB not pre-committing to a particular rate path
- Governing Council to follow data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to policy stance
- Interest rate decisions to be based on inflation outlook and risks, incoming economic and financial data, underlying inflation dynamics, and strength of monetary policy transmission
- Governing Council stands ready to adjust all instruments within its mandate to ensure inflation stabilises at 2% in the medium term
- Transmission Protection Instrument available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to monetary policy transmission
INFLATION:
- Upside risks to inflation have intensified
- Euro area entered current period with inflation at around the 2% target
- Shorter-horizon inflation expectations have moved up significantly
- Longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored
- War in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in energy prices, pushing up inflation
- Longer the war continues and energy prices remain high, the stronger the likely impact on broader inflation
ECONOMY:
- Downside risks to growth have intensified
- War in the Middle East weighing on economic sentiment
- Euro area economy has shown resilience over recent quarters
- Implications of war for medium-term inflation and activity will depend on intensity and duration of energy price shock and scale of indirect and second- round effects
While policymakers have stressed since the conflict broke out that they’ll act decisively if inflation shows signs of spiraling, data available so far haven’t convinced them. The ECB isn’t alone in holding fire: The Federal Reserve sat tight on Wednesday and the Bank of England decided against a move earlier on Thursday.
The ECB is also mindful of the blow to output, with data published shortly before its rate announcement showing first-quarter gross domestic product grew by a less-than-expected 0.1% in the euro zone — feeding stagflation fears.
Markets reckon officials will focus on the upswing in prices, which jumped by 3% in April — the quickest since the autumn of 2023 — due to the ramp-up in energy costs. Traders are fully pricing three quarter-point increases in borrowing costs by year-end.
President Christine Lagarde will offer her thoughts at a news conference at 2:45 p.m. Watch it live below:
GERMANY
Berlin And Hamburg Spend At Least €4 Billion On Housing Asylum Seekers Since 2022
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Two German cities, Berlin and Hamburg, have spent at least €4 billion to house migrants since 2022, with the cost of hotels proving to be especially high.
In Hamburg, the cost to house asylum seekers alone has amounted to €597 million. In 2025 alone, the costs of hotel accommodation and meals for asylum seekers in Hamburg was €160 million, which does not include security and administrative costs.
However, that is just for hotels. It costs Hamburg approximately €1 billion per year when other accommodations are factored in, such as container villages, asylum centers, and state-run units.
The data on hotel costs was released in a Senate response to a parliamentary inquiry by the AfD, according to Nius news outlet.
The Senate noted that the city first utilized hotels for refugee housing in late February 2022, but the figures are drawing the ire of the AfD. Thomas Reich, the AfD parliamentary group’s budget policy spokesman, pointed out that asylum seekers are creating “ever larger budget holes.”
The Hamburg Senate cited Russia’s war in Ukraine, which required the rapid and significant creation of asylum seeker spots, but the goal, according to the Senate, is to move them out of hotels and into other forms of housing.
Notably, hotels are not the only accommodations that taxpayers are paying for, which means the total cost of housing is far higher than the €593 million figure, which only pertains to hotel costs.
Berlin
Hotel rentals for asylum seekers are perhaps the most expensive housing solution in all Western countries. While a container village costs approximately €20 per person per day, the average price for a hotel or hostel spot is €60. As a result, Berlin has sought to move away from hotel rentals. As of 2025, Berlin’s State Office for Refugee Affairs (LAF) reported housing between 3,300 and 3,500 people in hotels or hostels.
The total figures for Berlin regarding only hotel places are not currently available, but the total cost for the accommodation, care, and integration of refugees in the capital between 2022 and 2025 has reached an incredible €2.24 billion. As Remix News reported last year, the cost for housing migrants in the city had reached nearly €1 billion a year.
Berlin’s senator for integration, Cansel Kiziltepe, confirmed that the city had rented 20 hotels but advocated for a change in strategy:
“I have said again and again: It is more cost-effective for the state of Berlin if we accommodate people in decentralized accommodation – whether in containers or in buildings…I fear that accommodation in hotels and hostels could become a case for the State Audit Office.“
When the Berlin and Hamburg expenses are totaled since 2022, they equal at least €4 billion, but the true cost is actually higher when administrative and security are factored in, not to mention education, welfare transfers, and healthcare.
In total, Germany spends over €50 billion a year on migrants, including accommodation, education, integration, social welfare, and other costs.
UK
muslim/migrant story!!
Welcome To Another Diverse Day In The UK…
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Two shocking incidents unfolding on the same day lay bare the consequences of unchecked mass immigration and a multiculturalism experiment gone wrong in Britain.
In Crewe, police mounted a massive raid on an Islamic sect accused of running a compound rife with modern slavery, forced marriages, and sexual abuse.
Meanwhile, in London, a knife-wielding attacker stabbed two Jewish men in a brazen assault now treated as terrorism. Yet amid the chaos, some voices seem more outraged by police using force to stop the suspect than by the violence itself.
Over 500 police officers descended on addresses linked to the Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light (AROPL) in Crewe, Cheshire. The operation targeted allegations of human trafficking, sexual assault, rape, forced marriage, and modern-day slavery.
Nine people—six men and three women—were arrested. The suspects include nationals from America, Mexico, Spain, Egypt, Italy, Sweden, and Britain. Around 150 people, including 56 children, live in a gated former orphanage that serves as the group’s headquarters.
The sect, which split from mainstream Shia Islam and has been rejected by it, holds charity status in the UK and relocated from Sweden in 2021. The leader of the group is named Abdullah Hashem Aba Al-Sadiq, and claims to have been appointed by the Prophet Muhammad.
The group’s name promises “Peace and Light.” Reality delivered something darker: a closed compound, vulnerable children, and allegations of systemic abuse enabled by Britain’s open-door policies.
This is the predictable result of prioritizing volume over vetting. When integration fails and parallel societies form, exploitation thrives behind closed gates—while taxpayers foot the bill for the cleanup.
In s separate development in north London’s Golders Green, a heavily Jewish neighborhood, a 45-year-old man stabbed two Jewish men—one in his 70s and one in his 30s—in what police have formally declared a terrorist incident. The attacker was seen wandering around targeting Jews and then turned on responding officers, attempting to stab them too. Both victims are stable. Counter-terrorism police are leading the investigation, examining a possible antisemitic motive.
Warning: Graphic footage (may be later removed or age restricted by X)
Don’t look away.
Take a moment to understand the horrendous reality unfolding on the streets of Britain.
I hope today’s victims recover soon.
Utterly, utterly horrific ? https://t.co/0lfaRCqPDP— Michelle Dewberry (@MichelleDewbs) April 29, 2026
Video captured the dramatic takedown: officers initially back away as the suspect advances, then move in with a Taser before subduing him—complete with kicks to the head once he was on the ground. The force was aimed at neutralizing an immediate threat, as the guy was still gripping the knife.
Our prediction proved immediately accurate, with leftists expressing more anger at police than at the terrorist.
This is peak UK dysfunction. A terrorist-style attack on Jews draws less fury from certain quarters, and we all know which quarters they are, than the sight of police actually fighting back.
The same crowd that lectures about “systemic racism” suddenly discovers outrage when officers use necessary force against a knife attacker who just tried to murder innocents.
Britain’s Jewish community has faced a surge in antisemitic violence since October 7, 2023. Golders Green has seen repeated incidents, including several arson attacks. Yet authorities, leftist politicians and media often bend over backward to avoid naming the cultural and ideological drivers behind much of it.
These two stories—slavery in a “peace” sect’s compound and a terror stabbing met with hand-wringing over police tactics—illustrate the same truth: not every culture assimilates. Some bring practices and mindsets fundamentally at odds with British (and Western) norms of consent, equality, and security.
Open borders and elite denial have consequences. Parallel societies don’t enrich; they fracture. Charity status for groups later raided for slavery doesn’t signal tolerance—it signals institutional blindness.
These are not isolated anomalies. They are symptoms of a deeper failure: importing cultures that reject the very foundations of British society—individual liberty, equality under the law, and protection from exploitation.
Prioritizing national sovereignty, cultural compatibility, and the safety of citizens isn’t bigotry. It’s basic governance. Until leaders admit that some imports are incompatible, expect more days like today.
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5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL VS IRAN
Trump: Iranian naval blockade stays until Tehran agrees to nuclear deal – Axios
US President Donald Trump says Iran will remain under a naval blockade until a nuclear deal is reached, with CENTCOM preparing for potential military strikes if negotiations fail.
Guided-missile destroyer USS Mason sails in the US CENTCOM area of responsibility in an undated picture, published April 29, 2026.(photo credit: SCREENSHOT X/ @CENTCOM)ByJAMES GENNAPRIL 29, 2026 21:34
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday told Axios that Iran will remain under a naval blockade until the Islamic regime agrees to a deal that addresses US concerns about its nuclear program.
The blockade is “somewhat more effective than bombing,” Trump told the outlet.
“They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon,” he added.
“They want to settle. They don’t want me to keep the blockade. I don’t want to [lift the blockade], because I don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon,” he said.
Meanwhile, US Central Command (CENTCOM) has begun preparing plans for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran, hoping to break the negotiating deadlock, three sources with knowledge told Axios.
Trump sees continuing the blockade as the primary means to gain leverage
After the wave of strikes, which would likely include targeting infrastructure, the US would press the regime to return to the negotiating table and show more flexibility, according to Axios.
Trump sees continuing the blockade as the primary means to gain leverage over Tehran, but would consider military action if Iran does not give in, sources told Axios.
Trump declined to discuss any military plans during the 15-minute phone conversation with Axios, the report noted.
However, a senior Iranian security source was cited by Iran’s English-language state-run broadcaster, Press TV, as saying that the US naval blockade will “soon be met with practical and unprecedented action.”
Iran’s military has shown restraint in order to give diplomacy a chance, the source said.
Iran wants to provide Trump with an opportunity to end the conflict, but emphasized that Iran’s military “believes that patience has its limits and that a punishing response is necessary” if the blockade continues.
ISRAEL VS IRAN/USA
US May Deploy Hypersonic Missiles Against Iran As Centcom Set To Brief Trump On New Military Options
Wednesday, Apr 29, 2026 – 10:50 PM
US Central Command has asked to send the Army’s long-delayed Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, seeking a longer-range system to hit ballistic-missile launchers deep inside the country Bloomberg reports.
If approved, this would mark the first time the US will have deployed its hypersonic missile, which is running far behind schedule and hasn’t been declared fully operational even as Russia and China have deployed their own versions. And since Trump isn’t shy when it comes demonstrating force, it is unlikely that the request will be denied.
The military’s Request for Forces submission reportedly justifies the move by saying Iran has moved its launchers out of range of the Precision Strike Missile, a weapon that can hit targets at more than 300 miles. If approved, the deployment would also send a signal to Russia and China that the US is finally able to match a capability that they’ve long since mastered.
Dark Eagle, also known as the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon, or LRHW, has a reported range of more than 1,725 miles, although its exact capabilities are secret. It is designed to glide to its target at more than five times the speed of sound and can maneuver to avoid interception. The missile was designed to fight Chinese or Russian advanced air defenses. The problem is that each Lockheed Martin missile costs about $15 million, and there are no more than eight missiles, so any assault using hypersonics would be rather brief. Also, since each battery will cost about $2.7 billion, according to the Government Accountability Office, they will make attractive targets for Iran’s own hypersonics.
The US already transferred most of its supplies of the stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missile, also designed for a fight with a near-peer adversary, to the Iran fight. About 1,100 of the missiles have been fired so far in the conflict.
The US has said it has local air superiority, meaning that in some parts of Iran its aircraft can operate without facing much of a threat. But dozens of MQ-9 aircraft, plus several crewed fighters, have been downed, showing that other parts of Iran’s airspace remain dangerous.
The Bloomberg report comes as Axios rehashed an earlier report, according to which President Trump will receive a briefing on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday from CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper. The briefing signals that “Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations either to try to break the logjam in negotiations or to deliver a final blow before ending the war.”
The report goes on to note that CENTCOM has prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran – likely including infrastructure targets – in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock. The hope would be that Iran would then return to the negotiating table showing more flexibility on the nuclear issue.
Another plan expected to be shared with Trump is focused on taking over part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it to commercial shipping. Such an operation could include ground forces.
A third option that has been discussed in the past and might come up in the briefing is a special forces operation to secure Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
end
ISRAEL TBN
HEZBOLLAH
IRAN
Iranian Currency Hits All-Time Low As Tehran Threatens ‘Unprecedented’ Response To US ‘Maritime Piracy’
Wednesday, Apr 29, 2026 – 05:00 PM
Iran’s currency plummeted to a record low on Wednesday, dropping to 1.8 million against the dollar following the brutal US-Israeli war, coinciding with uncertainty over the fragile truce and rising energy prices worldwide.
The currency began a sharp descent two days ago after several weeks of artificial stability. During the initial weeks of the US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic – which broke out on February 28 – the rial remained relatively steady, largely due to a total halt in imports and minimal market trading.
Hundreds of textile workers have been laid off, according to Iran’s Shargh newspaper. According to ISNA, in the last two days, the rial has plummeted by 15 percent.
The drop comes as Washington continues to enforce an aggressive blockade on Iranian ports, seizing multiple vessels recently and prompting Tehran to respond similarly. Iran has repeatedly warned that it will confront this blockade and use military action if necessary.
A high-ranking Iranian security source told Press TV on Wednesday that Tehran will soon use “practical and unprecedented military action” if Washington’s “piracy” does not come to an end.
“Iran’s armed forces – operating under the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters as the war command – believe that patience has limits and that a punishing response is necessary if Washington maintains its illegal naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz,” the source added.
IRAN’S RIAL JUST HIT ITS LOWEST LEVEL EVER Iran’s currency has collapsed so hard that 1 rial is now effectively worth ZERO U.S. dollars. $1 now costs 1.8 MILLION Iranian rials.
·
“The restraint shown by armed forces so far has been intended to give diplomacy a chance and allow the US to … accept Iran’s conditions for ending the war permanently … This pause was meant to provide [US] President Donald Trump an opportunity to pull the US out of the current quagmire it finds itself in. However, if US obstinacy and delusions continue and Iran’s conditions are rejected, the enemy should soon expect a different kind of response to the ongoing naval blockade,” the source stressed.
After vowing to maintain the blockade throughout the ceasefire, Washington imposed new sanctions this week targeting 35 individuals and entities linked to Iran’s banking sector, in an effort to ratchet up pressure.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Friday that the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned multiple digital wallets linked to the Iranian state, amounting to over $340 million in cryptocurrency.
Around two weeks before the US-Israeli war began, Bessent admitted that Washington engineered a dollar shortage in Iran in order to pull down the currency and trigger unrest ahead of the January riots across the country.
end
IRAN/ISRAEL/USA/EARLY MORNING
Growing Division In Iran’s ‘Hardline Camp’ Emerges Over Halting All Talks With US
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 07:45 AM
It remains difficult to know what’s really going on inside Iran, and to accurately assess the state of the country’s internal politics, but Financial Times describes a situation of hardliners vs. moderates duking it out to see whether negotiations with the United States should continue.
The report comes well after President Trump and the White House have at various times alleged Tehran governance is ‘fractured’ and the state is even ‘collapsing’ – which seems exaggerated if not flatly false. Those more independent-minded analysts outside the mainstream suggest the opposite is the case – that it’s Washington which can’t stick to any of its red lines and keeps moving the goal posts on negotiations. After all Trump did keep unilaterally extending the ceasefire, and the US has not resumed the bombings even though Trump clearly threatened to (even with ‘firm’ timelines) as the Iranians sat back
“At the heart of the dispute, which has played out in parliament and state media, is a push by Iran’s most hardline politicians to oppose the Islamic republic negotiating with the US over its nuclear program,” FT writes.
“Their primary target is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the veteran parliamentary speaker who led talks to US vice-president JD Vance in Pakistan earlier this month. Politicians linked to Paydari, an influential ultra-hardline faction, suggested that negotiators have not fully followed directives set by the new supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei,” the publication continues.
As for definitions, there’s also the problem of the West imposing broad brush labels of ‘hardline’ and ‘moderate’ from afar, based fundamentally on speculation and we might say, circular logic. After all, any Iranian official who is against pursuing more negotiations – while understandably coming to the conclusion that Washington can’t be trusted (after it bombed Iran twice during talks) – gets automatically labelled ‘hardliner’ by the MSM, and this also carries all kinds of implications overlapping with radical Islam.
But yes, there are clearly holdouts pushing for Tehran not to engage at all, to completely shutter communications, which would likely mean certain return to war:
“Negotiations are now pure damage and nobody should go for negotiations,” Mahmoud Nabavian, a member of parliament close to the Paydari who accompanied Iran’s negotiating team to Pakistan, told local media.
And another key section from the report is in the following:
He [Nabavian] criticized inclusion of Iran’s nuclear programme in talks as a “strategic mistake” and implied this is not what the top leader sought. Another hardline politician, Ali Khezrian, claimed to state television that the supreme leader opposed continuing the talks.
Officials “should know that at this sensitive time their obligation is to thoroughly obey and carry out the guidelines of the supreme leader,” Nabavian said.
On Monday, 261 out of 290 MPs issued a statement supporting Ghalibaf and the other negotiators. However, prominent members of Paydari were absent from the list of signatories.
The longer the Hormzu standoff goes, and the more the anti-Tehran rhetoric flows out of the White House and from Trump on Truth Social, the more likely the Paydari faction and others are to influence broader numbers of Iranian leaders and sectors of the public.
Another source (Saudi-funded and Israeli-linked) says “The confrontation largely pits supporters of former nuclear negotiator and National Security Council member Saeed Jalili against allies of his longtime rival, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who recently led Iran’s delegation in talks in Islamabad.”
There’s also what war historians and analysts of military doctrine call the rally round the flag effect. This observable trend shows time and again that the more a country gets attacked and isolated, the more that the population rallies around the authorities – which are the only resistance to aggression – and at the same time the ‘regime’ and its institutions harden.
Trump’s Iran war, now about to reach its nine weeks, has taken a somewhat predictable extended path with each side still locked into zero sum demands:
Thus far, US officials have at various (early) points predicted the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, but this has not happened; instead, Tehran is enduring and in the end may become less moderate than it was before. It seems to survive while waging asymmetric warfare to make the pain unbearable (whether economic or political) for Washington.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA/LATE MORNING UPDATES
Oil Spikes As Israeli Defense Chief Says ‘Required To Act Again’ In Striking Iran, Achieving Objectives
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 10:50 AM
Summary
- Israeli Defense Minister Katz: “soon we will need to act again in Iran to ensure that the regime cannot threaten Israel for years to come.” Oil spikes on this and new reports of Israeli defense build-up at ports, air hubs.
- Not giving up nuclear program: Iran will “guard” its “advanced technologies” like it does its own borders, Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written speech read aloud by state TV. It will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway.”
- US military teases cutting-edge, not yet tested in battle, hypersonic missiles for Mideast region as CENTCOM head set to brief Trump on further military options at White House.
- Brent crude for June delivery reached as much as $126 a barrel in trading on Thursday, before easing to $114 – as oil prices have surge to their highest levels since 2022 as Trump mulls a military-enforced Iran blockade extension.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 34% · No 67%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * XX
Oil Spikes on Israeli Defense Chief’s Threats of New Strikes
Israel Defense Minister Katz has said in a Thursday briefing: “It is possible that soon we will need to act again in Iran to ensure that the regime cannot threaten Israel for years to come,” according to a local reporter.
According to more, he said that while Israel supports the United States’ diplomatic efforts with Iran, it may “soon be required to act again” to remove the “existential threats” posed by the Islamic Republic.
“Iran has suffered extremely severe blows over the past year, blows that have set it back years in all areas,” Katz continued at a military ceremony. “US President Trump, in coordination with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is leading the effort to complete the campaign’s objectives in a way that ensures Iran will not return to being a threat to the existence of Israel, to the United States, and to the free world for generations to come,” he added. “We support this effort and provide the necessary backing, but we may soon be required to act again to ensure the objectives are achieved.” Oil prices shooting back up on the headline, and as Israeli media reports on a new military build-up and US defense aid at the country’s ports…
The below is via AP on a “new plan” being mulled by Trump:
Under the plan, the United States would continue its blockade on Iranian ports, while coordinating with allies to impose higher costs on Iran’s attempts to subvert the free flow of energy, according to a senior administration official. Trump is weighing multiple diplomatic and policy options to push Iran to end its chokehold on the waterway, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.
Khamenei: Protect Nuclear Program, Gulf Region Will Have Future Without America
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has never released video or voice messages, and he’s still not been seen or even photographed since the war’s start, and is believed to be severely injured and recovering. State TV on Thursday read aloud his written speech, which struck a defiant tone, declaring that the only place Americans belonged in the Persian Gulf is “at the bottom of its waters” and that a “new chapter” was being written for the whole region. State media cited security as the reason for having to read aloud his statement.
Khamenei says Iran will closely guard and protect its nuclear and missile capabilities, a clear and direct rejection of President Trump’s demand to hand over enriched uranium as the basis for a deal. Iranians will cling to the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities “as their national capital and will guard them like water, land and air borders,” Khamenei said.
IRAN/ITS SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE
Iran’s Ghalibaf Tells Iranians ‘Unify’ As US Blockade Seeks To ‘Make Us Collapse From Within’
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 01:20 PM
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has since the war’s start and prior assassinations of top leaders including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei become the most visible figurehead representing the Islamic Republic to the world, has continued trolling the United States even as President Trump is renewing fresh military strikes amid an uneasy extended ceasefire and ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports.
He stated Wednesday that the United States’ naval blockade of the country has a goal to create division and “make us collapse from within.” His message was delivered through state TV and he is warning citizens about “maintaining unity” in the face of this unprecedented economic and military pressure.
Ghalibaf went on to explain that Trump falsely “divides the country into two groups: hardliners and moderates, and then immediately talks about a naval blockade to force Iran into submission through economic pressure and internal discord,” according to more from state media sources.
“The enemy has entered a new phase and wants to activate economic pressure and internal division through naval blockade and media hype to weaken or even make us collapse from within,” he continued, urging Iranians that the only solution is to keep national unity amid the assault.
This hearkens back to Trump having said earlier this month that the Iranian government was “seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so.”
This was quickly followed by reports that Ghalibaf himself was being sidelined by the IRGC when it comes to the next potential US-Iranian talks. But Tehran quickly rejected reports that the influential parliament speaker had been removed from the negotiating team.
As for definitions of ‘hardline vs. moderate’ – these are somewhat superficial and manufactured by the West (akin to prior Middle East wars and regime change operations, with one recent example being so-called “moderate rebels” in Syria).
With the MSM and Iran, this is based fundamentally on speculation from afar and circular logic. Any Iranian official who is against pursuing more negotiations – while understandably coming to the conclusion that Washington can’t be trusted (after it bombed Iran twice during talks) – gets automatically labelled ‘hardliner’ by the MSM, and this also carries all kinds of implications overlapping with radical Islam. The idea is to make anyone not amenable to Washington and Israeli plans for the region look irrational and fanatical – even if their decisions might be rational and understandable based on Iranian national self-interest and survival.
Meanwhile Ghalibaf has continued trolling the US on X over rising oil and gas prices, which again suggests that Tehran is settling in for a long war, and is willing to endure and survive politically…
The longer the Hormuz standoff goes, and the more the anti-Tehran rhetoric flows out of the White House and from Trump on Truth Social, the more likely the Iranian so-called hardliners are to influence broader numbers of Iranian leaders and sectors of the public. This is especially if Tehran gets bombed again, which is looking likely.
Yet Washington is hoping that it actually produces the opposite: admin officials have expressed hope that common Iranians would take to the streets in large numbers, with regime collapse being the end goal.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA
Bessent Gloats Over Iran’s Collapsing Currency, Signals Hope For Uprising Amid Reports Israel Preparing Fresh Attack
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 02:55 PM
Summary
- Bessent on X: “Amid the impact of Economic Fury, Iran’s currency has hit an all-time low. The Iranian people deserve a new era, which the corrupt and shambolic Iranian regime cannot provide.” Signals hope for uprising, regime change.
- Israeli Defense Minister Katz: “soon we will need to act again in Iran to ensure that the regime cannot threaten Israel for years to come.” Oil spikes on this and new reports of Israeli defense build-up at ports, air hubs.
- Not giving up nuclear program: Iran will “guard” its “advanced technologies” like it does its own borders, Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written speech read aloud by state TV. It will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway.”
- US military teases cutting-edge, not yet tested in battle, hypersonic missiles for Mideast region as CENTCOM head set to brief Trump on further military options at White House.
- Brent crude for June delivery reached as much as $126 a barrel in trading on Thursday, before easing to $114 – as oil prices have surge to their highest levels since 2022 as Trump mulls a military-enforced Iran blockade extension.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 34% · No 67%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Bessent Gloats Over Iran’s Collapsing Currency, Signals Hope For Uprising
Amid chatter that Israel could be preparing for renewed attacks on Iran, and as Trump is said to be mulling more limited strikes – but while at the same time the USS Gerald R Ford is returning to the United States after a record deployment – Iran is signaling it is ready for a long war and can endure the US naval blockade for a long time to come. However, there are also unconfirmed reports out of Pakistan that another draft peace proposal could be presented by Tehran as soon as this weekend. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has newly said Thursday the blockade is effectively an “extension of military operations” by Washington, despite the extended ceasefire declared by Trump.
Also on Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that the US administration gameplan seems to be to drive Iran into economic ruin, in hopes of triggering some kind of uprising toward regime change. But this was the exact same ‘prediction’ and gameplan in the opening days of the war – which never materialized. One the one hand his below message on X seems to gloat over imposing widescale misery over the bombed-out country, while on the other claiming to help and support the Iranian people, saying they “deserve a new era”.
As we reported earlier, Iran’s currency on Wednesday collapsed to a record low, plunging to 1.8 million rial per dollar amid the prolonged US-Israel war and uneasy ceasefire, also as surging global energy prices hit the economy. The rial began sliding sharply two days prior to this after weeks of artificial stability. In the early phase of the war that kicked off on February 28, the currency held steady due to a near-total halt in imports and limited market activity.
Oil Spikes on Israeli Defense Chief’s Threats of New Strikes
Israel Defense Minister Katz has said in a Thursday briefing: “It is possible that soon we will need to act again in Iran to ensure that the regime cannot threaten Israel for years to come,” according to a local reporter.
According to more, he said that while Israel supports the United States’ diplomatic efforts with Iran, it may “soon be required to act again” to remove the “existential threats” posed by the Islamic Republic.
“Iran has suffered extremely severe blows over the past year, blows that have set it back years in all areas,” Katz continued at a military ceremony. “US President Trump, in coordination with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is leading the effort to complete the campaign’s objectives in a way that ensures Iran will not return to being a threat to the existence of Israel, to the United States, and to the free world for generations to come,” he added. “We support this effort and provide the necessary backing, but we may soon be required to act again to ensure the objectives are achieved.” Oil prices shooting back up on the headline, and as Israeli media reports on a new military build-up and US defense aid at the country’s ports…
The below is via AP on a “new plan” being mulled by Trump:
Under the plan, the United States would continue its blockade on Iranian ports, while coordinating with allies to impose higher costs on Iran’s attempts to subvert the free flow of energy, according to a senior administration official. Trump is weighing multiple diplomatic and policy options to push Iran to end its chokehold on the waterway, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.
Khamenei: Protect Nuclear Program, Gulf Region Will Have Future Without America
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has never released video or voice messages, and he’s still not been seen or even photographed since the war’s start, and is believed to be severely injured and recovering. State TV on Thursday read aloud his written speech, which struck a defiant tone, declaring that the only place Americans belonged in the Persian Gulf is “at the bottom of its waters” and that a “new chapter” was being written for the whole region. State media cited security as the reason for having to read aloud his statement.
Khamenei says Iran will closely guard and protect its nuclear and missile capabilities, a clear and direct rejection of President Trump’s demand to hand over enriched uranium as the basis for a deal. Iranians will cling to the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities “as their national capital and will guard them like water, land and air borders,” Khamenei said
HEZBOLLAH/ LEBANON
Netanyahu urges Trump to cap Lebanon talks at two-three weeks amid IDF restraint – report
Israeli officials have argued that continued Hezbollah attacks against IDF troops and northern communities are eroding the chances of reaching an agreement and undermining Israel’s deterrence.
‘THOSE WHO lionize Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will portray the operation as an unmitigated success; those who loathe them will dismiss it as a total failure. The sober truth lies in between.’ Here, Netanyahu speaks to the media in Jerusalem in March.(photo credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)
ByTOBIAS SIEGALAPRIL 30, 2026 07:53
Updated: APRIL 30, 2026 08:21
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has urged US President Donald Trump to limit ongoing negotiations with Lebanon to a two- to three-week window ending in mid-May, during a call late Wednesday, Israel’s Channel 12 (N12) reported.
The call came after Trump rejected a recent Iranian proposal to set aside discussions of Iran’s nuclear program until the war has ended and focus now on resolving disputes surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli officials have argued that continued Hezbollah attacks against IDF troops and northern communities are eroding the chances of reaching an agreement and undermining Israel’s deterrence.
Jerusalem has conveyed to Washington that if talks fail to produce results within the requested timeframe, Israel will seek approval to move forward with its “original plan” of expanded military action against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, the political echelon has instructed the IDF to exercise restraint in Lebanon. The military is currently avoiding strikes north of the Litani River, with any such action carefully considered and requiring special approval.
Trump, in turn, has urged Netanyahu to limit Israeli actions in Lebanon to “surgical” strikes only and to avoid further escalation, according to an Axios report.
Israeli officials warn current situation allowing Hezbollah to regroup
During a visit to forces in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir stressed that troops are operating in accordance with government directives. “We have achieved everything that the political echelon laid out for us in relation to campaigns in Iran and Lebanon, and even more,” he said
Currently, the IDF is largely responding to attacks rather than initiating operations in Lebanon, a position Israeli officials have warned benefits Hezbollah by allowing it to regroup and continue posing a threat to forces on the ground.
Jerusalem has urged the US to pressure Lebanon to act against Hezbollah in areas outside of the security buffer zone, dubbed by Israel a Forward Defense Line, which was established by the IDF in southern Lebanon earlier this month.
The restraint in Lebanon is widely seen in Israel as part of a broader effort to support US-led diplomatic efforts with Iran. However, officials acknowledge the policy carries risks, including damage to Israeli deterrence and increased pressure on northern communities, as uncertainty remains over how long these restrictions will stay in place.
South of the Litani River, Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged near-daily fire in recent days, even as negotiations between Israel and Lebanon continue in New York.
END
IRAN
Defiant Mojtaba Khamenei Says Gulf’s Future Will Be “Without US Presence,” Vows To Protect Nuclear Program At All Costs
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 08:40 AM
Summary
- Not giving up nuclear program: Iran will “guard” its “advanced technologies” like it does its own borders, Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written speech read aloud by state TV. It will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway.”
- US military teases cutting-edge, not yet tested in battle, hypersonic missiles for Mideast region as CENTCOM head set to brief Trump on further military options at White House.
- Brent crude for June delivery reached as much as $126 a barrel in trading on Thursday, before easing to $114 – as oil prices have surge to their highest levels since 2022 as Trump mulls a military-enforced Iran blockade extension.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 34% · No 67%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Khamenei: Protect Nuclear Program, Gulf Region Will Have Future Without America
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has never released video or voice messages, and he’s still not been seen or even photographed since the war’s start, and is believed to be severely injured and recovering. State TV on Thursday read aloud his written speech, which struck a defiant tone, declaring that the only place Americans belonged in the Persian Gulf is “at the bottom of its waters” and that a “new chapter” was being written for the whole region. State media cited security as the reason for having to read aloud his statement.
Khamenei says Iran will closely guard and protect its nuclear and missile capabilities, a clear and direct rejection of President Trump’s demand to hand over enriched uranium as the basis for a deal. Iranians will cling to the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities “as their national capital and will guard them like water, land and air borders,” Khamenei said.
“By God’s help and power, the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without America, one serving the progress, comfort and prosperity of its people,” Khamenei continued. “We and our neighbors across the waters of the Persian Gulf and the (Gulf) of Oman share a common destiny. Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometers away to act with greed and malice there have no place in it – except at the bottom of its waters.” He also vowed Iran’s forces will “secure the Persian Gulf region and dismantle the hostile enemy’s exploitation of this waterway.”
US Teases Hypersonic Missiles, CENTCOM to Brief Trump
As we detailed Wednesday night, United States Central Command has requested deployment of the Army’s long-delayed hypersonic Dark Eagle to the Middle East for potential use against Iran, seeking a longer-range capability to strike ballistic missile launchers deep inside the country, Bloomberg reports. If approved, the move would mark the first deployment of the hypersonic system, which remains behind schedule and has not been declared fully operational, even as Russia and China have already fielded their own versions.
The Pentagon claimed time and again of late that it has local air superiority, meaning that in some parts of Iran its aircraft can operate without facing much of a threat. And yet dozens of MQ-9 aircraft, plus several crewed fighters, have been downed, showing that other parts of Iran’s airspace remain dangerous.
The Bloomberg report hit just as Axios rehashed an earlier report, according to which President Trump will receive a briefing on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday from CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper. The briefing signals that “Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations either to try to break the logjam in negotiations or to deliver a final blow before ending the war.”
Meanwhile the Iranian side has been claiming dozens of its vessels have breached the US naval blockade, which the Pentagon has been denying. Others say that while some ships have traversed the strait, they have not actually fully crossed the blockade.
IAEA Chief on Global Energy Crisis, Oil
The head of the International Energy Agency (IAEA) has emphasized in new remarks that the world is facing its biggest energy crisis in history due to the war. “The oil markets and gas markets are going through big difficulties. When I looked last time, the oil price was over $120 which is putting a lot of pressure on many countries,” executive director Fatih Birol said at a conference in Paris. “Our world is facing a major economic and energy challenge.”
Indeed, benchmark Brent crude for June delivery reached as much as $126 a barrel in trading on Thursday, before easing to $114 – as oil prices have surge to their highest levels since 2022 as Trump mulls a military-enforced Iran blockade extension.
Iranian leadership in the meantime continues to troll the US over rising oil and gas prices, using its significant geographic leverage over global markets…
More Latest Developments
via Newsquawk
- US CENTCOM is to brief US President Trump on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday, Axios reported citing sources; plan includes a short and powerful strike potentially targeting infrastructure to break the nuclear issue deadlock. Other options expected to be presented include a plan to take over part of the Strait to allow for commercial shipping, which could involve ground forces, and a special forces op to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile.
- US CENTCOM has asked to send the Army’s hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
- US CENTCOM said the US navy has redirected 42 vessels from the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and that the military is fully committed to enforcing the blockade.
- US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu that Israel should only take surgical military action in Lebanon and avoid a full resumption of the war, Axios reported.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said sprinting for the finish line with Iran, according to Fox Business; willing to do secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers. Every day adding more economic pressure to Iran. Close to half a billion in Iran-related crypto seized. Consumers and stock market are looking through Iran. UAE and others have requested swap lines, swap lines are not a bailout.
- Iran lawmaker Mottaki says a naval blockade would amount to a declaration of war, and that fighters could decide as soon as tomorrow or next week to remove such obstacles via military action.
- Iran’s Navy Commander said the Islamic Republic will soon unveil a new weapon that would deeply terrify the enemy, IRNA reported. He said Iran has closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian Sea. Condemned the US’s illegal seizure of several Iranian vessels as part of the blockade, which he said amounted not only to “piracy” but also “hostage-taking”.
- Iran’s Navy commander warns that Iran will soon face its enemies with a very dreadful weapon that will strike fear into their hearts, according to Press TV.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said channels of dialogue with officials in Washington and Tehran remain open, Al Hadath reported. ““The clock on diplomacy has snit stopped. We remain hopeful for a negotiated settlement on this issue. We will continue with our sincerest efforts”,.
- China’s Military said they conducted combat readiness patrols near Scarborough Shoal, according to a statement.
- “No point” in negotiating over zero enrichment, Iranian lawmaker said, Al Jazeera reported; adding “I have no objection to going to the negotiating table, but we should have looked more closely at how to proceed”.
- The US administration is asking countries to join a new international coalition that would enable ships to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ reported. The Maritime Freedom Construct would be a US-led coalition that would share information, coordinate diplomatically and enforce sanctions.
- A surveillance drone near the US embassy in Baghdad has been shot down, according to Iraqi security sources.
- Iranian Navy Commander said we have closed the Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian sea side and will take swift action if enemy advances, Al Araby reported.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
FOR 50 YEARS THE CIA HID RESEARCH REGARDING DRUGS LIKE IVERMECTIN AND CANCER
by The Wellness Company
According to The Daily Mail, a declassified CIA document is raising concerns that the agency purposely suppressed information that could have been a valuable tool in treating cancer:
A newly surfaced CIA document suggests US intelligence once reviewed research that hinted at a possible cancer treatment more than 60 years ago.
The document, produced in February 1951 and declassified in 2014, summarizes a Soviet scientific paper that examined striking similarities between parasitic worms and cancerous tumors.
The report describes how researchers believed both organisms thrived under nearly identical metabolic conditions and accumulated large reserves of glycogen, a form of stored energy.
Indeed, Soviet research regarding anti-parasticis and cancer at the time was showing promising results:
The research also highlighted experiments showing that certain chemical compounds were capable of targeting both parasitic infections and malignant tumors.
One drug, Myracyl D, was reportedly effective against bilharzia parasites as well as cancerous growths, hinting that treatments developed for parasites might also attack tumors.
According to Nicolas Hulscher with The McCullough Foundation, “Instead of being used to advance critical cancer research, the document was buried for over half a century.”
Recent Data Also Ignored
It’s not just the results of these Soviet studies that were buried for decades by the CIA. The off-label use of of anti-parasitic drugs like ivermectin and mebendazole have demonstrated highly promising anti-cancer activity in preclinical models. But despite compelling preclinical data and documented safe use in cancer patients, robust clinical evidence evaluating the ivermectin–mebendazole combination in oncology remains limited.
This is Why The Wellness Company Conducted its own Study
Treating cancer is big business and one that makes the big pharmaceutical companies massive amounts of cash. In 2024 alone, cancer treatments generated at least $200 billion in worldwide sales for the pharmaceutical industry.
Given the massive profit motive it shouldn’t be surprising that big pharma has shown zero interest in low-cost cancer treatments.
This is exactly why Dr. Peter McCullough, and a number of his colleagues at The Wellness Company, have recently authored a first of its kind study of the application of Ivermectin+Mebendazole in the treatment of cancer.
The results of this study are nothing short of groundbreaking.
84% Clinical Benefit
- 84.4% reported clinical benefit (no evidence of disease, tumor shrinkage, or stable disease)
- 48.4% reported the strongest positive outcomes — tumor shrinkage or no current evidence of disease
- 86.9% completed their initial prescription with most side effects reported as mild
These two Nobel Prize-recognized and FDA-approved compounds work through a dual-action mechanism: Ivermectin disrupts tumor growth pathways and triggers cancer cell death (apoptosis), while Mebendazole starves abnormal cells by blocking their ability to absorb glucose. Together, in one compounded capsule, they deliver a protocol that patients could actually follow — and did.
According to Dr. McCullough, “This study reveals an exciting new potential that should expand the consideration of ivermectin and mebendazole for inclusion in the treatment of multiple cancer types. We urgently need a full-fledged scientific investigation into this class of medications and their impact on cancer treatment.”
What Does this Potential Breakthrough mean for You?
Here is a tough reality – Cancer doesn’t care how healthy you are. It doesn’t announce itself. And by the time most people find out, they’re handed a treatment plan that’s brutal on the body, devastating on the wallet, and uncertain in its results. Standard chemotherapy drugs can cost tens of thousands of dollars per cycle — and too often, the outcomes don’t match the price tag.
And here’s what makes it worse: you feel powerless. You’re told there’s only one path — the conventional path — and questioning it makes you a “difficult person.”
Meanwhile, you watch the side effects pile up, the bills multiply, and the uncertainty eat away at your peace of mind. You’re left wondering: Is this really the best we can do?
We need effective options that work with the body — not against it — that are accessible, affordable, and backed by real clinical data.
Every day without a proactive plan is another day you’re leaving your health to chance. Cancer rates are rising, and conventional treatments alone aren’t delivering the results patients deserve. But now, there’s real-world clinical evidence pointing to a powerful complementary option — compounded by a licensed 50-state U.S. pharmacy and prescribed by licensed American doctors.
Have a clinically studied, doctor-prescribed tool in your corner — one that’s affordable, easy to follow, and backed by the kind of real-world results that give you and your family genuine hope and control over your health.
GLOBAL ISSUES
Senator Finds More Evidence Federal Officials Evaded FOIA
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 10:20 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A U.S. senator and his team say they have uncovered additional evidence that federal officials worked to evade requests made under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).
Several emails obtained by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) showed personnel with the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were aware of FOIA requests and sought to evade them. FOIA enables people to request records from the government. It requires officials to retain and produce requested records, subject to certain exemptions.
In a Nov. 26, 2022, missive, Allison Lale, a medical officer with the CDC, asked a colleague about receiving safety analyses of COVID-19 vaccination from the FDA.
Pedro Moro, a CDC epidemiologist, responded. “I think that because of the FOIAs we may have asked FDA to stop sending these weekly data mining outputs,” Moro wrote.
“Oh interesting,” Lale said. She added that during calls for a CDC-managed program, “we used to just verbally mention” that certain terms had not triggered safety signals, or signs vaccines were causing problems.
“But we could also leave it out if that [sic] this creates more hassle,” she added.
In a separate email chain, FDA officials were told by an FDA vaccine safety analytic expert, Dr. Ana Szarfman, that the approach they were using to analyze the safety of COVID-19 vaccines was faulty. The information sparked a long discussion, during which officials considered asking the expert to contact an outside expert on the matter.
“Before we potentially reach out to Ana, we should meet internally – many considerations not suited to email…” David Menschik, an FDA official who distributed the data mining reports, wrote on April 15, 2021.
“Sounds good,” Bethany Baer, another FDA worker, responded. “Happy to meet and discuss anytime open on my calendar.”
Johnson, the chairman of the House Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, said during an April 29 hearing that the emails served as “additional evidence of how federal officials avoided creating a paper trail to prevent transparency and public disclosure.”
A top CDC official’s emails were missing, the government told Johnson in 2025.
A grand jury charged Dr. David Morens, a former official with the National Institutes of Health, a component of the Department of Health and Human Services, this week with conspiring to destroy some records and conceal others, after he allegedly wrote, in missives obtained by journalists and Johnson, that said he wanted to use a personal email address to evade FOIA.
In one email cited by prosecutors, Morens said in 2020 that he wanted to “keep this correspondnce [sic] off of USG emails for obvious reasons, so am sending from gmail.” He added later, “I am under Multiple FOIAs already.”
In another, a co-conspirator told Morens that he was using Morens’s Gmail address “to keep you out of the FoIA target.”
The National Institutes of Health declined to provide a comment on the charges.
Despite efforts to conceal, the subcommittee acquired the emails he just released thanks to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s responsiveness to subpoenas, Johnson said.
Neither the CDC nor the FDA, nor their parent agency, the Department of Health and Human Services, responded to requests for comment by the time of publication.
Lale, Moro, Baer, and Menschik still work for the government. Lale, Moro, and Baer did not return inquiries by publication time. A query to Menschik returned an automated message saying he is on extended leave.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
NEWSWIZE
DR PAUL ALEXANDER.
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
today’s state of affairs//Bas Giffen
Breaking The Stalemate
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 12:20 PM
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro strategist at Rabobank
Energy prices continue their ascend –with Brent futures trading above $124/barrel – after media report that the US may try to break the stalemate in the US-Iran war by force. Axios reports that military leaders will brief Trump on potential military options today. Reportedly, the Pentagon is preparing a wave of “short and powerful” strikes on Iran, likely targeting infrastructure.
Yesterday, Trump still suggested that he would not resume the bombing campaign. The US president said he believes the US blockade of Hormuz is the most effective form of leverage. However, that strategy has so far failed to exert significant concessions from Iran. So, these military strikes –or the mere threat thereof– could be an option if Iran does not budge on the nuclear issue.
The news injects fresh tail risks into the outlook for the war, energy prices, and inflation around the globe. Amidst the unusually high uncertainty about the outlook, the FOMC kept the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as widely expected.
Equally expected was Governor Miran’s dissent, who repeated his preference for a rate cut. However, that was offset by three dissenting votes on the policy statement. Governors Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan “did not support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”
Chair Powell noted that the Committee was in no rush to change the language of the statement. Perhaps, the FOMC decided to wait for the change of guard – and to avoid wobbly messaging. Because once Warsh is appointed as next Fed chair, he will probably try to convince the other FOMC members of the need for additional rate cuts.
Whether Warsh succeeds depends on incoming data, but Powell suggested yesterday that this could be an uphill battle. According to the current Fed chair, the more centrist policymakers were moving towards a more neutral place in thinking about cuts versus hikes. Likewise, their economic assessment now says that inflation is “elevated,” instead of “somewhat elevated.”
We still forecast two rate cuts from a Warsh-led Fed this year. However, as we have flagged before, we think that in the coming months are more likely to drop a rate cut from our forecast than add one.
But the biggest surprise was arguably Powell’s personal decision: the current Fed chair announced that he will continue to stay on as governor for some time after his term as chair ends. This does not mean he will serve out his term as governor; Powell said he will leave when he thinks it’s appropriate – which he seemed to tie to the legal attacks on the central bank. Powell did suggest he would keep a lower profile, and that he would not try to undermine Warsh out of respect for the role of Fed chair.
Returning to energy prices, the fresh highs for Brent this week provide a sobering backdrop to the otherwise better-than-expected April inflation data for the Eurozone countries. Overall, German and Spanish inflation data for April were on the lower end of expectations – although the harmonized inflation measure still ticked 0.1 percentage point higher in Spain.
VAT cuts on petrol have certainly softened the blow. The fact that energy prices were somewhat lower in the first half of April may also have limited energy-driven price pressures for the month. That may be short-lived, given that the price of energy commodities has been on the rise again.
But the miss wasn’t entirely driven by lower energy prices – core inflation, i.e., inflation excluding energy and food, came in a bit lower too. Clothing and recreation –the Spanish bureau of statistics specifically mentions package holidays– were the main reasons why core inflation decelerated compared to the prior month. However, keep in mind that pricing of these goods and services can be quite erratic, due to seasonal shifts and the timing of holidays like Easter. So, this is a mitigating factor for now, but we don’t think that this is a sign of broader disinflation.
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS COMMENTARIES
CALIFORNIA
California Gas Tops $6 As “Big Prices Hike Expected” Across Great Lakes Region
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 10:40 AM
The statewide average for 87-octane gasoline in California has topped $6 a gallon as the Iran-war-driven global energy crunch ripples across the West Coast, the hardest-hit U.S. region. Meanwhile, the national average remains above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon threshold, hovering around $4.30, according to AAA data as of Thursday morning. It’s clear that bad ‘green’ energy policies by unhinged, left-wing politicians in the Golden State have left the state’s energy complex in a total mess, with no buffers.
“That’s the highest since October 2023. No other state has ever surpassed the $6-a-gallon mark. At the outset of the war, the price in the Golden State was $4.64 a gallon,” Bloomberg wrote in a note earlier.
Beyond gasoline, diesel prices in California now average a staggering $7.48 per gallon, up from $4.98 one year ago.
On the national level, gasoline prices continue to climb, now at $4.30 and remaining above the politically sensitive $4 level for one month.
Also on the national level, diesel prices – the fuel that keeps the economy humming – are around $5.49 and have yet to reach their previous high of approximately $5.69 in early April.
West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude benchmark, jumped to nearly $110.50 a barrel overnight, while Brent, the global benchmark, topped $126. This spike in oil prices was due to continued uncertainty over a near-term peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, as well as Trump laying the groundwork for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, according to MSM reports.
GasBuddy head analyst Patrick De Haan wrote on X, “WTI and Brent pushing higher after Trump says to expect prolonged blockade on the Strait,” adding, “Expecting big gas price hikes as early as noon for MI, IN, IL, WI, and perhaps OH.”
With the national average for gasoline above $4, we have already detailed emerging consumer behavior shifts at gas stations and convenience stores. Actual demand destruction should arrive north of $5 gas.
Read:
- Here’s What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4
- Here’s What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4
Let’s not forget we’ve outlined how the global energy crisis ripples across the world, already impacting Asia and Europe, and for the U.S., will affect California the hardest (read why).
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Canadian Education Minister Says Parents Have No Rights Over Their Children
Wednesday, Apr 29, 2026 – 09:20 PM
Canada is losing its collective mind. During a recent debate in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly, Education Minister Brendan Maguire (Progressive Conservative MLA for Halifax Atlantic) responded angrily to concerns about school policies on gender transitioning (without parental notification in many cases) and provincial funding for gender-related medical interventions for minors.
His argument? Parental rights are not a factor and, essentially, do not exist in the eyes of the Canadian government.
The debate was sparked by concerns raised by another MLA about provincial funding for gender-reassignment surgeries for minors, school policies on social transitioning without parental notification, and reporting by groups like the Citizens’ Alliance of Nova Scotia (CANS). Since 2014, Canada has instituted an ever expanding far-left initiative to encourage gender ideology in public schools and prevent parents from knowing about or interfering with this indoctrination.
“I’ll be damned if I’m going to stand here and listen to someone say that the parents deserve rights over a child. No, they don’t. They absolutely don’t…”
The assertion is a common one among woke political adherents who believe that children have the ability to “consent” to life changing psychological and chemical transitioning as well as sexualized LGBT propaganda programs. These are, of course, the same kinds of people who ran rampant in the US during the Biden Administration, promoting gender reassignment for minors and exposing elementary school kids to drag queens.
Maguire goes off the rails, asserting that because his parents abandoned him at a young age, this is a rationale for why parents in general do not deserve the right to dictate the decisions of their vulnerable kids. But his logic is incredibly flawed. The mistakes of deadbeat parents do not negate the overall need for good parents to protect their children from malicious indoctrination.
Child consent concepts are so central to the woke left’s ideology because they normalize state control of children and remove the greatest obstacle to progressive control: The nuclear family. Leftists often appeal to “empathy” and “human rights”, but what they are really doing is promoting moral relativism and destructive degeneracy in the name of “civil liberties”. At bottom it should be common sense – Children are not mentally mature enough to consent.
Nova Scotia has used the “Guidelines for Supporting Transgender and Gender Non-Conforming Students” as policy since 2014, and like most Canadian provinces, has resisted any efforts by parents or conservatives to change the rules.
For grades 7–12, if a student “has the capacity to consent” for using preferred pronouns and gender identity, parental consent is not required. Schools must get the student’s permission before disclosing their transgender/gender-nonconforming identity to their parents.
Canadian authorities claim this prioritizes student self-identification and confidentiality “to protect the child” from potential harm at home. A planned update was abandoned in late 2025, with the province instead incorporating related expectations into a broader school code of conduct. Citizens do not get a vote on these policies, they are implemented unilaterally by the education bureaucracy.
Nova Scotia’s policies against parental rights also extend to gender-affirming care, including puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones for minors. These are publicly funded treatments with no hard age minimums. Eligibility starts after the onset of puberty (typically around ages 8–14). Parents do not have to be told that these treatments are taking place, and schools can hide the information.
Canada is what happens when leftists are allowed free rein to do as they please. The kinds of horrific social and political revisions that take place can disrupt or destroy a nation for generations to come. In such an environment, something as fundamental as parental rights can be flipped on its head and turned into a crime.
END
MEXICO/USA
this is great!!
Feds Charge Sinaloa’s Governor, Senator, Mayor, & Other Top Officials With Running A Narco-State
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 01:40 PM
Submitted by The Bureau’s Sam Cooper,
Federal prosecutors in New York have charged ten current and former senior Mexican government officials — among them the sitting governor of Sinaloa, a sitting federal senator, the mayor of the state capital, and the state’s former secretary of public security — with conspiring to protect the Sinaloa Cartel’s most powerful faction in exchange for millions of dollars in drug money, in what may be the most sweeping corruption indictment ever brought against a sitting government in the Western Hemisphere.
The superseding indictment, filed in the Southern District of New York and unsealed Wednesday, charges all ten defendants with narcotics importation conspiracy — specifically, conspiracy to flood the United States with fentanyl, heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine — as well as conspiracy to possess machineguns and destructive devices in furtherance of drug trafficking.
One defendant, a municipal police commander, faces additional charges of kidnapping resulting in death: the alleged abduction and murder of a Drug Enforcement Administration confidential source, his relative, and a 13-year-old boy, carried out using a police patrol car.
The document does not describe a cartel that corrupted a government. It describes a government that became the cartel’s operating infrastructure.
In what appears to be the first instance in American legal history of the Justice Department indicting a sitting Mexican governor, prosecutors allege that Ruben Rocha Moya, 76, who has served as governor of Sinaloa since November 2021, did not simply accept cartel money. He allegedly made his deal with the Chapitos — the sons of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman — before he was ever elected, in a meeting guarded by Cartel sicarios armed with machineguns, and delivered on every term thereafter.
What makes the filing extraordinary even by the standards of major cartel prosecutions is the physical evidence prosecutors say they recovered: handwritten monthly bribe lists, seized in Mexico during the investigation, that record by name, alias, and official position which Sinaloa officials were being paid by the Cartel, and exactly how much. The lists name defendants in this case. They are reproduced in the indictment as photographs. They are, in effect, the Chapitos’ payroll — and they show a government bought line by line.
“The Sinaloa Cartel is a ruthless criminal organization that has flooded this community with dangerous drugs for decades,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton. “No matter your title or position, we are committed to bringing you to justice.”
The indictment sets off what observers described as a political earthquake in Mexico — and poses a crisis of a different kind for President Claudia Sheinbaum, whose own party, Morena, counts at least three of the defendants among its members. The charges land on the eve of formal renegotiations of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade pact central to Mexico’s export economy, a timing that reads less like coincidence than calculated maximum pressure.
Ioan Grillo, a veteran journalist and author who has spent decades covering Mexico’s cartels, noted Wednesday that Mexico’s foreign relations department received the extradition requests for Rocha Moya and the other Sinaloa officials the previous evening at 6 p.m. — meaning Sheinbaum had roughly 18 hours to prepare a response before the indictment became public. “She is in a very tough position,” Grillo wrote.
At the center of the indictment is Rocha Moya.
As governor, he oversees Sinaloa’s entire administrative apparatus, including all state and local police forces. Prosecutors allege his relationship with the Chapitos predates his election and was foundational to it. In early 2021, while still campaigning, Rocha Moya allegedly attended a meeting with Ivan and Ovidio Guzman at which he promised that if elected, he would install officials friendly to the Chapitos’ drug trafficking operations throughout the Sinaloa government. The Chapitos delivered on their side.
On election day in June 2021, sicarios acting on Ivan’s orders stole ballots and ballot boxes for the opposing party. They used a list of Rocha Moya’s opponents and their home addresses — provided to the Chapitos by co-defendant Enrique Diaz Vega — to kidnap and intimidate those opponents into abandoning the race. Officers of the Sinaloa State Police, whose commanders had been ordered to stand down, received emergency calls reporting armed men at polling stations, voters being directed at gunpoint toward favored candidates, and ballot boxes being stolen across Culiacan, Mazatlan, Navolato, and Elota.
After winning, Rocha Moya and his secretary general, Enrique Inzunza Cazarez — now a sitting federal senator — met again with the Chapitos under machineguns and confirmed their arrangement: in exchange for the Chapitos’ support, Rocha Moya would deliver effective control of the Sinaloa State Police to the Cartel. As governor, prosecutors allege, he has delivered on every term.
Inzunza Cazarez, now representing Sinaloa in Mexico’s federal senate, allegedly served as a direct physical courier between the Chapitos and Rocha Moya, conveying communications confirming the terms of their arrangement. Enrique Diaz Vega, who served as Sinaloa’s secretary of administration and finance from November 2021 to September 2024, allegedly handed the Chapitos the names and home addresses of Rocha Moya’s political opponents so the Cartel could threaten them out of the race before a ballot was cast.
The corruption ran deep into the state’s law enforcement apparatus.
Damaso Castro Zaavedra, Sinaloa’s deputy attorney general, allegedly received approximately $200,000 pesos — roughly $10,893 in U.S. dollars — every month. In exchange, he gave the Chapitos advance warning of planned operations, including identifying which drug labs were being targeted by the Drug Enforcement Administration so evidence could be destroyed or moved before raids began.
Two successive chiefs of Sinaloa’s Investigative Police — Marco Antonio Almanza Aviles and Alberto Jorge Contreras Nunez, known as “Cholo” — were both allegedly on the Chapitos’ monthly payroll throughout their tenures. Aviles allegedly accepted roughly $16,670 per month from a meeting at one of Ivan’s ranches in 2017 or 2018; in exchange, he issued arrest warrants for the Chapitos’ enemies on demand and ordered the release of cartel members arrested for drug trafficking.
Contreras Nunez, selected by Rocha Moya with explicit Chapitos approval and holding the position until approximately February 2026, accepted approximately $16,000 per month in cash and helped the Chapitos track down and kill their enemies. Gerardo Merida Sanchez, Sinaloa’s secretary of public security — overseeing the entire state police — allegedly accepted more than $100,000 in U.S. dollars in monthly cash bribes and in 2023 alone warned the Cartel in advance of at least ten raids on drug labs, allowing them to evacuate personnel, drugs, and equipment before police arrived.
Jose Antonio Dionisio Hipolito, known as “Tornado,” a deputy director and later commander of the Sinaloa State Police, allegedly accepted approximately $6,000 per month from at least 2012 through 2024, sold ammunition and assault rifle magazines to Chapitos members, had arrest paperwork altered to conceal that detained cartel members had been armed, and met personally with Ivan and Ovidio to receive a radio with instructions to stay in contact.
The most grave allegation in the indictment concerns October 2023, and it falls on Juan Valenzuela Millan, known as “Juanito,” a high-level commander in the Culiacan Municipal Police from approximately 2018 to 2024.
Millan allegedly accepted approximately $41,000 per month in cash — funds distributed among himself, his commanders, and more than forty other corrupt municipal officers — and gave the Chapitos unrestricted access to the intelligence, operations, and physical resources of the municipal police, including patrol cars and radios.
When Ivan Guzman and a senior Chapitos associate ordered the kidnapping and murder of Alexander Meza Leon, a confidential source providing information to the Drug Enforcement Administration about Chapitos drug trafficking operations, Millan’s officers carried out the abduction. In a marked patrol car, municipal police stopped Meza Leon and another victim on the street, detained them, and handed them directly to Cartel sicarios, who tortured and killed them. Among the victims killed was a 13-year-old boy. Additional civilians were subsequently kidnapped and murdered as the Chapitos sought to eliminate anyone associated with the source. Count Four of the indictment charges Millan alone with kidnapping resulting in death. Juan de Dios Gamez Mendivil, the current mayor of Culiacan, rounds out the list of defendants. He allegedly accepted more than $10,000 in U.S. dollars per month and shielded Chapitos operations across the city he governs.
Among the most remarkable pieces of evidence described in the indictment are physical documents prosecutors say they recovered from Mexico: handwritten monthly bribe lists maintained by the Chapitos’ plaza boss in Culiacan. Each month, prosecutors allege, the plaza boss received from the Chapitos a box of cash alongside a list specifying the name, alias, or official position of each official to be paid and the precise peso amount. Three such lists are reproduced as photographs in the indictment — each headed with a variation of “Gobierno” and a total figure, each with the names of defendants circled in red. They are, prosecutors say, the Cartel’s own records — a paper ledger of a purchased government, recovered in Mexico, showing the systematic monthly acquisition of Sinaloa’s law enforcement apparatus, position by position, peso by peso.
The indictment situates the corruption within a supply chain that begins in China and ends in American communities.
The Sinaloa Cartel, prosecutors allege, has for years worked directly with precursor chemical manufacturers in China and elsewhere to obtain the raw materials needed to produce fentanyl and methamphetamine at industrial scale. Sinaloa’s position on Mexico’s Pacific coast has given Chinese suppliers both maritime and air access to deliver those chemicals to the state and its surrounding regions — access that was only possible, prosecutors allege, because corrupt officials like those charged Wednesday ensured no one would interfere with the shipments.
Once manufactured, the narcotics moved north through Sonora and Baja California across the United States border concealed in car compartments, tractor-trailers, luggage on commercial flights, shipping containers with falsified paperwork, and the bodies of drug mules, as well as through tunnels beneath the border and on so-called black flights, where planes flew with their transponders disabled. Stash houses in Southern California, El Paso, and Phoenix fed a wholesale distribution network reaching New York and the East Coast. Fentanyl has become one of the leading causes of death for Americans between the ages of 18 and 49.
The political fallout for Sheinbaum is severe.
At least three of the defendants — Rocha Moya, the mayor of Culiacan, and Senator Inzunza Cazarez — are members of her party, Morena. Rocha Moya was a staunch ally of Sheinbaum’s political mentor, former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and enthusiastically embraced Lopez Obrador’s signature “Hugs, Not Bullets” cartel policy — a deliberate strategy of avoiding direct confrontation with Mexico’s most powerful criminal organizations. Critics have long argued that both Lopez Obrador and Sheinbaum carried out few high-level corruption prosecutions and weakened the institutions responsible for rooting it out. His long personal friendship with Lopez Obrador, Mexican observers have noted, appeared to shield Rocha Moya from scrutiny despite long-rumored cartel ties.
Sheinbaum, just days before the unsealing, told reporters her government had seen no evidence supporting the corruption allegations and insisted any American investigation of Mexican nationals must be reviewed by the Mexican attorney general’s office. Mexico’s foreign ministry, after receiving the extradition requests, said the documents provided by Washington did not contain sufficient evidence to establish the defendants’ responsibility, adding that the attorney general’s office would determine whether arrests and extraditions were warranted.
Rocha Moya denied everything. “This attack isn’t just against me,” he wrote on X Wednesday afternoon. “It is part of a perverse strategy to violate the constitutional order” of Mexico and an assault on national sovereignty. “We will show them that this slander doesn’t have any sort of foundation.” Senator Inzunza Cazarez issued a similar denial.
U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ron Johnson last week signaled the campaign was coming, warning publicly that Washington would be targeting Mexican officials linked to organized crime. Two of El Chapo’s sons — Ovidio Guzman Lopez and Joaquin Guzman Lopez — are currently in U.S. custody facing drug-smuggling charges and are widely reported to be cooperating with prosecutors in exchange for leniency.
The granular detail in Wednesday’s indictment — the meeting dates, the ranch locations, the radio handoffs, the bribe list totals — is consistent with, among other possible sources, testimony from individuals who were present at those meetings. Ovidio and Joaquin Guzman Lopez, both in U.S. custody and widely reported to be cooperating with prosecutors, would be among those with direct knowledge of the arrangements described.
As of Wednesday, none of the ten defendants were in custody. The charges carry maximum penalties including life imprisonment on the narcotics conspiracy count. Eight of the ten face mandatory minimum sentences of 40 years.
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1715 UP 0.0038
USA/ YEN 157.127 DOWN 3.075 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.35.23 UP 0.0035 OR 35 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3648 DOWN 0.0023 CDN DOLLAR UP 23 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 4.64 PTS OR 0.11%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 335.31 PTS OR 1.28%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.59%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:MOSTLY ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 335.31 PTS OR 1.28%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.64 PTS OR 0.11%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.59%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 584.96 PTS OR 0.98%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4639.35
silver:$73.63
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.19 PLUS 12 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 75.11 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 6 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.012 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.668 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.592 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.141 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early THURSDAY MORNING: 98.58 UP 10 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.459% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.519% UP 5 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.744 UP 10 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.517 DOWN 5 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.893 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0532 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1686 UP 0.0002 OR 2 basis points
USA/Japan: 156.71 DOWN 3.489 OR YEN IS UP 349 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.008 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.678 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 4 BASIS pts to 1.3668
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP 6.8267 ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.8334
TURKISH LIRA: 45.19 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.391.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.972 DOWN 2 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.885 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4532.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 73.53
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 165.71 PTS OR 1.62%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 337.82 PTS OR 1.41%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 42.71 PTS OR 0.53%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 138.20 PTS OR 0.78%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 450.05 PTS OR 0.94%
WTI Oil price 104.42 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 109.32 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 74.87 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 17 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.573 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.213 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1734 UP 0.0049 OR 49 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3604 UP 0.01166 OR 117 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.0302 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.726 UP 3 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.522 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.723 UP 8 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.498 DOWN 3.696 OR YEN UP 370 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3588 DOWN 0.0083 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 83 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 104.84
Brent OIL: 110.51
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.384
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 1 PTS to 4.983%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.881 DOWN 5 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.554 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.197 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.93 DOWN 90 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.19 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 74.88 UP 0 AND 17/100 roubles //
GOLD $4616.30 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 73.55 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 790.14 OR 1.62%
NASDAQ 100 UP 265.46 PTS OR 0.98%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.03 DOWN 1.78 PTS OR 9.46%
GLD: $ 423.06 UP 6.25 PTS OR 1.50%
SLV/ $66.65 PTS UP 1.81 OR OR 2.79%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 619.18 PTS OR 1.86%
ZZ
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Stocks Thrust To New All Time High Amid Powerful Rotations Below The Surface
XXX
WRAP UP:
USA DATA RELEASES
Core PCE Rises Most In 3 Years; Savings Rate Tumbles As Spending Far Outpaces Income
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 09:04 AM
The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – rose 0.3% MoM in January (as expected), a dip from the 0.4% sequential increase in February, with YoY rising by 3.2% (also as expected), slightly higher than the 3.0% in Feb. That is the highest annual increase in Core PCE since Nov 2023.
The headline PCE jumped notably more, as expected since it includes non-core items like energy and food, rising 0.7% MoM (as expected) driving prices up 3.5% YoY, also as expected, from 2.8% and the highest since May 2023.
Taking a closer look at the headline print shows a surge in non-durable goods, largely the result of soaring gasoline prices.
On the other hand, core PCE was far more muted, with the monthly increase actually the lowest in three months, even as the annual increase keeps mounting.
Finally, supercore PCE was also muted, indicating that the energy price spillover into the broader economy is taking place but not as fast as some feared.
For those worried about the impact of crude oil’s recent surge (since the start of the Iran war), it appears – somehow – that PCE’s Energy component has already front-run a lot of the move…
Higher prices were met with higher incomes and higher spending (rising in line with one another for a change): personal income rose 0.6%, double the expected 0.3% and a surge from the 0.0% printed last month. Spending meanwhile rose 0.9%, as expected, and also higher from last month’s 0.6%.
Ominously, spending growth continues to outpace income growth
And since spending rose more than income once again (as wages are not keeping up with income), the savings rate just tikced down to a fresh 4 years low.
And with rate-cut expectations in free fall – especially after yesterday’s hawkish Fed – this latest data will do nothing to support a dovish take going forward (unless oil crashes the global economy and AI takes over all jobs).
END
GDP Shocker: 75% Of US Growth In The First Quarter Was Due To AI
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 12:53 PM
On the surface, today’s Q1 GDP print was unremarkable: Real GDP grew 2.0% annualized in the first quarter, somewhat below consensus expectations of 2.3% and reflecting a surprisingly small rebound in government spending after the shutdown drag in Q4. Federal government spending contributed only half as much to real GDP growth in Q1 (+0.6%) as it subtracted in Q4 (-1.2%), implying that the level of real federal government spending in Q1 is 2.2% below its level in 2025Q3. Inventory accumulation also contributed less to Q1 growth than we had anticipated (+0.4pp vs. our expectation of +1.2pp). Net exports subtracted 1.3% from GDP after boosting it dramatically in early 2025 as imports surpassed exports. Consumer spending rose 1.6%, somewhat above consensus expectations, but as we noted earlier, much of this has been due to “stimulus” refunds which are now over, and which pushed spending growth far higher than income growth.
Even with the stimmies, personal savings dropped to a 3 year low.
Yet when we get to fixed investment, something remarkable emerges: Housing investment declined 8%, and subtracted 0.31% from the bottom line GDP print, which is to be expected with mortgage rates remaining very high, maintaining a depressed housing market.
But Nonresidential fixed investment was the outlier, soaring by 10.4%, largely reflecting a boost from higher electronics imports and a 12% annualized decline in software prices.
Let’s take a closer look at the breakdown.
The chart below shows quarterly annualized GDP growth broken down by components. It shows that Q1 GDP grew at exactly 2.0% in Q1. Also notable is that traditionally strong consumption, which contributed 1.0% of GDP growth, was offset by net trade (1.3%) with, inventories (0.4%) and government (0.73%) providing a modest offset.
The highlighted block is Fixed Investment, which contributed 1.1%. However, keep in mind that residential fixed investment subtracted 0.31% from the total number, which means that Nonresidential fixed investment was responsible for 1.38% of the 2.0% GDP print.
Focusing on the fixed investment component, we find the following: as noted above, it was all about non-residential fixed investment.
Zooming into this segment, we find that Nonresidential equipment grew by 6.3%, or contributing 0.9% to the 2.0% GDP, while Intellectual Property products grew just over 5%, and added 0.7% to the bottom line GDP.
While IP is clear – it consists primarily of Software, the kind that one uses to create and develop AI tools, as well as R&D – the components behind Nonresidential equipment need a closer look again, and here we find that Information Processing equipment, i.e., data centers, grew at a stunning 13%, comprising virtually all of the 0.88% contribution to 2% GDP growth.
And there you have it: between Software (0.7% of the GDP growth) and Nonresidential Equipment (0.88%), AI – which was the primary driver behind growth in both – contributed just over 1.5% to GDP growth of 2.0%; in other words about 75% of all US growth in Q1 was due to AI.
Another way to visualize the remarkable impact of spending on “computers” is the chart below: it clearly shows just how reliant the US has become on spending on computer products.
And that’s why AI is now not only a market bubble, but it has become a core anchor propping up the entire US economy; it’s also why the US government will have no choice but to backstop it once the inevitable AI bubble pops.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
this is big news:
Sternlicht’s Starwood Real Estate Fund Gates Redemptions
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 02:40 PM
Earlier this month, when much of the attention was largely focused on private credit, we warned that one of the old, familiar credit market time-bombs, commercial real estate which for many years had been penned as the “Next Big Short”, was deteriorating rapidly: according to the latest TREPP CMBS monthly report, March saw a surge in the CMBS delinquency rate, which jumped by 41bps to 7.55%, the highest in years, led by a surge in the lodging rate, a category which until now was not a source of concern.
It now appears that this particular time bomb is about to go off, as the huge redemptions wave that rocked private credit in recent months is making a move into commercial real estate.
According to Bloomberg, Barry Sternlicht’s high-profile Starwood Capital Group Management is halting redemptions from a $22 billion real estate fund aimed at retail investors as it seeks to prevent a flight of assets amid mounting pressure on its bet that the commercial real estate markets would quickly recover from interest rate rises in 2022 and 2023
The asset manager is “temporarily suspending” share repurchases from its Starwood Real Estate Income Trust with a few exceptions following a strategic review, according to a letter to shareholders. It will also cut its annualized distribution to 4.7% for Class I shares, down from 6.3% as of March.
Sternlicht’s fund, one of the first retail private markets funds, pinned its decision to temporarily suspend most redemptions on interest rates that have “remained high”. The move comes after Sreit had restricted investors’ liquidity rights by more than 80% two years ago
“We recognize this decision may be frustrating for some shareholders,” Starwood CEO Barry Sternlicht said in the letter. “However, taking this step now allows us to preserve the opportunity to realize better outcomes as market conditions improve.”
The issue was “not the real estate,” said Sternlicht in the letter, but rather “the pressure created by elevated redemption requests, which rose quite suddenly when interest rates spiked and remained high”.
As the FT notes, SREIT has struggled to recover from a real estate market that has remained weak since interest rates began to creep up four years ago. The fund owns 598 properties across the US. Sternlicht said Sreit would “reintroduce liquidity when it can be done in a consistent and sustainable way” Until then, the firm will only allow investors to redeem their shares due to death, disability or if their balance is below $5,000.
The CEO said Starwood expected “the war with Iran to conclude, oil prices to subside, inflation to stabilize, and for Kevin Warsh to be seated as Fed Chair, supporting a lower interest rate environment”.
“The temporary actions announced today reflect our commitment to making the right long-term decisions for all SREIT shareholders, including the nearly 70% who have never made a redemption request,” Sternlicht said in an emailed statement. “Our interests are fully aligned with our investors as the largest owner of SREIT, with over a $500 million ownership stake.”Sternlicht said in a statement.
Last month, hedge fund Saba Capital last month offered to buy 5% of the outstanding shares in Sreit, at a discount of more than 20% of the fund’s most recent stated value. In the end, Saba acquired only $7.7 million of the approximately $400mn in SREIT shares they had offered to buy, the FT reported.
Two years ago, Starwood limited investors’ ability to redeem their investments after the FT reported that SREIT had tapped its credit facility to support redemptions, rather than selling real estate assets.
SREIT launched in 2018 amid a wave of similar offerings from Blackstone and KKR to give retail investors exposure to commercial real estate. In the early years, low interest rates helped the funds plow capital into apartment buildings, warehouses and other properties. But the real estate cycle flipped in the middle of 2022, when a sharp increase in interest rates cratered property values and pushed investors to withdraw capital. Those withdrawals have been eating into SREIT’s liquidity, leading to Wednesday’s decision to halt redemptions.
As readers are well aware, SREIT is not the only retail-oriented fund that has come under pressure in recent months. Similarly structured vehicles that invest in private credit have suffered a wave of withdrawals amid concerns over underwriting standards and potential disruption to software businesses from AI, forcing managers to enforce caps on withdrawals.
SREIT is among the largest owners of multifamily apartments in the US, with more than 63,000 apartment units concentrated in the Sunbelt, including Texas and Florida, according to the letter.
Sternlicht made a reputation buying distressed real estate in the aftermath of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s. He went on to found Starwood Hotels & Resorts, which was later acquired by Marriott International Inc., and the real estate lender Starwood Property Trust.
In recent years, he has criticized the Federal Reserve for being late to increase interest rates in the aftermath of Covid. In the letter he said that he expects the war in Iran to end, leading to lower oil prices and stabilizing inflation. He now expects the Fed to cut rates.
end
Iran war costs so far 25 billion dollars
(zerohedge)
Iran War Cost $25 Billion in First 2 Months, Pentagon Says
Wednesday, Apr 29, 2026 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,
Combat operations against Iran have cost the U.S. military about $25 billion in two months, a top Pentagon accounting official told House Armed Services Committee members on April 29.
The Wednesday hearing marked the first time Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine have testified publicly to Congress since U.S. and Israeli forces commenced attacks on Iran on Feb. 28. U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire for about five and a half weeks before the parties entered into a ceasefire agreement on April 8.
Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the ranking member on the committee, asked the Pentagon to account for the costs of U.S. munitions expended as well as for equipment destroyed in the course of the fighting.
Jules Hurst, the acting War Department comptroller, estimated those costs at about $25 billion.
Hurst said munitions accounted for most of it, but said he also factored in operations and maintenance and equipment replacement costs. Hurst joined Hegseth and Caine at the hearing, as Congress weighs military funding requests for fiscal year 2027.
The Trump administration has been working on submitting a supplemental funding request to Congress to cover the war’s costs, but has yet to finalize it or settle on an exact figure.
“We will formulate a supplemental through the White House that will come to Congress once we have a full assessment of the cost of the conflict,” Hurst said.
The Pentagon is already seeking a $1.5 trillion military and defense spending budget for fiscal year 2027. The request amounts to a 42 percent increase over fiscal year 2026 military spending, which totaled approximately $1.03 trillion.
Among other items, the Trump administration’s 2027 military budget request seeks $52.9 billion to boost procurement for 12 weapons systems that the Pentagon has classified as critical munitions.
In March, President Donald Trump announced he had met with the CEOs of BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon parent RTX Corp., Boeing, Honeywell, and L3Harris Technologies to discuss boosting their munitions production levels. Weapons produced by the companies—including the Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile defense systems and offensive weapons like the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile—have featured heavily in the Iran war.
Beyond the immediate material costs to replace weapons and equipment, the Iran war has also disrupted global oil and gas flows out of the Middle East, leading to rising prices for consumers.
END
House Unanimously Approves Bill To End 76-Day DHS Shutdown, Sending Measure To Trump
Thursday, Apr 30, 2026 – 02:20 PM
Well that was anticlimactic… On Thursday, the House of Representatives approved by voice vote a Senate-passed bill to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security, clearing the way to end the longest partial government shutdown in U.S. history after 76 days.
The measure now heads to President Trump’s desk. The shutdown, which began February 14, will officially conclude once the president signs the legislation into law.
Democrats had long objected to funding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol – the two DHS agencies at the center of the administration’s immigration crackdown – prompting the impasse. The Senate unanimously passed legislation last month to fund the remainder of DHS, but House Republicans initially rejected the plan, arguing it would amount to caving to Democratic demands to defund the president’s immigration agenda.
After weeks of negotiations, House Speaker Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and President Trump settled on a two-track solution. The first track – immediate House passage of the Senate bill – will reopen the broader department. The second track will fund ICE and Border Patrol through the budget reconciliation process, allowing Republicans to advance the measure without Senate Democratic support.
Both chambers took the first formal step toward reconciliation this week by adopting a budget plan that directs the relevant committees to draft legislation funding the immigration enforcement agencies. President Trump has said he wants the full reconciliation package on his desk by June 1.
The president ordered DHS to redirect funds to cover employee payroll in March, but Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin warned that money for payroll would run out by the beginning of May, intensifying pressure on lawmakers to act.
ICE and Border Patrol have been largely insulated from the shutdown’s effects. Both agencies received tens of billions of dollars in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, allowing their operations to continue mostly unimpeded.
The heaviest burden has fallen on other DHS components, including the U.S. Coast Guard, Transportation Security Administration, and Federal Emergency Management Agency.
In an exclusive interview with CBS News, Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Kevin Lunday said his workforce was “furious” that the impasse had dragged on so long, calling the situation “incredibly frustrating.”
The House action marks the beginning of the end for a shutdown that has left thousands of federal workers and critical agencies in limbo for more than two and a half months. Once signed by the president, the legislation will restore funding and stability to the vast majority of DHS operations while Republicans move forward separately on their immigration enforcement priorities through reconciliation.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report April 30, 2026 Issue 7732 | Independent View of the News |
| WSJ: Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran In recent meetings, including a Monday discussion in the Situation Room, Trump opted to continue squeezing Iran’s economy and oil exports by preventing shipping to and from its ports. He assessed that his other options — resume bombing or walk away from the conflict — carried more risk than maintaining the blockade, officials said. Trump rejects Iran’s offer, says blockade stays until nuclear deal – Axios Trump would consider military action if Iran does not act – Axios. Iran offers U.S. deal to reopen strait but postpone nuclear talks – Axios U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock… – Axios Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told Axios… The President added that Iran’s oil storage and pipelines “are getting close to exploding” because Iran can’t export oil due to the blockade. @zerohedge: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories drop by 7.1 million, below 400mm, the biggest weekly drain since October 2022 https://t.co/IDHkX1tQYq Oil and gasoline rallied sharply. The US 2-year note traded at 3.94%. This means that the Fed should hike rates, per all the Street barkers that brayed ‘the Fed should cut rates when the 2-year went below the Fed Funds Rate. USMs declined as much as 27/32. Precious metals fell smartly on the higher rates. Ex-Fangs, because 4 Fangs reported results after the close, stocks declined smartly in early NYSE trading. ESMs traded moderately higher on Tuesday night on buying for Fed Day and the peak of Fang reporting season. ESMs hit a daily high of 7188.50 (+17.50) at 2:03 ET. They then commenced a stair step decline that created a daily low of 7142.00 (-29.00) at 12:31 ET. The rally for the FOMC Communique (14:00 ET) pushed ESMs to 7160.75 at 13:51. FOMC highlightsFed votes 8-4 to hold benchmark rate in 3.5%to 3.75% rangeHammack, Kashkari, Logan voted against easing bias languageMirin dissents in favor of rate cutMiddle East developments adding high level of uncertaintyFour no votes at Powell’s final meeting are most dissents in 34 years“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.”Job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months.”“Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.”https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm ESMs fell to a daily low of 7137.50 at 14:10 ET on the more hawkish than expected FOMC Communique. The rally for Powell’s final presser took ESMs to 7152.50 at 14:20 ET. Powell Press Conference HighlightsReiterated FOMC Communique pointsRate guidance could conceivably change at next meetingWe had a vigorous discussion about rate guidance todayWe expect tariff inflation to recede in the next two quartersWill remain as Fed governor when his term expires as chairHe will leave the Fed when he deems it appropriate, vows ‘low profile’Bemoaned the administration’s unprecedented legal attacks on the Fed“I worry these attacks are battering the institution.”Implies he is staying at the Fed to defy DJT and assert Fed independenceMuch uncertainty about the path aheadInflation is kind of misbehavingMaybe restrictive is the right place to beMajor adjustments to DOT Plot or SEP lacked broad committee backingI was never the world’s biggest fan of the DOT PlotNo one is calling for a rate hike now (Boosted ESMs)If need to hike or cut, will signal the moveI think we are pretty close to a neutral rate nowI think Fed independence is at risk, must go to court to defend itFed committed to getting inflation down to 2% (LMAO!)4.3% unemployment rate is a low rate; growth is solid across economyElected politicians will always want low ratesMarket would lose faith if Fed made political decisions (like allowing Biden inflation?)Full Statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260429.pdf The final rally, augmented by buying for expected great results after the close from Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, plus Powell’s lack of hawkishness pushed ESMs to 7168.25 at 15:15 ET. Powell’s presser ended at 15:25 ET; ESMs fell to 7154.00 at 15:33 ET. ESMs jumped to 7167.75 at 16:00 ET. @SecScottBessent: It is unusual for soon-to-be-former Fed Chair Jay Powell to stay on at the @federalreserve. For someone who speaks so often of norms, his unilateral decision to stay flies in the face of tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring about a new day at the Fed, with accountability, management, and sound policymaking in the lead. Ex-Treasury official Judy Shelton: “This is a very churlish move by Powell.” Trump: Jerome “Too Late” Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can’t get a job anywhere else — Nobody wants him… @wesbury: “My concern is legal attacks on the Fed, which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors,” Powell said. My concern is QE, which increases inequality and affects politics and the Fed financing deficits at artificially low rates, which drives spending higher than it should be, which also affects politics. The Fed got into politics, not the other way around. @RenMacLLC: The power of the FOMC Chair is the power of persuasion. It is clear that Warsh has his work cut out for him convincing the committee to adopt his policy views. Good luck trying to convince Lorie Logan about your views on trimmed-mean (CPI) Kevin! The bar to raising rates this year has just come down. These folks started with a down payment of changing the statement, not voting for a hike. For Warsh, it might be a waiting game. He might find a more receptive audience among the regional Fed Presidents next year. @RevelioLabs: We are experiencing an unprecedented disconnect between the stock market and the labor market: The S&P 500 is at record highs while US job growth grinds to a halt. https://t.co/aKPluOsWbT The Chicago Fed: Index Points to Looser Financial Conditions in Week Ending April 24 The NFCI decreased to –0.52 in the week ending April 24. Risk indicators contributed –0.27, credit indicators contributed –0.16, and leverage indicators contributed –0.09 to the index in the latest week. https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data Positive aspects of previous session Buying for coming Fang results boosted the Nas 100 and NY Fang+ Index Negative aspects of previous session Stocks, ex-Fangs, and bonds declined smartly. The 2-year rose 10bps to 3.94%. Oil and gasoline rallied sharply on dismal Iran prospects. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is Trump about to act decisively on Iran/ First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7129.88 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7145.63; 7107.86 Trump: The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of Troops in Germany, with a determination to be made over the next short period of time. (After 90-minute call with Putin) ‘Major scandal:’ Feds and Sen. Johnson allege government coverups of COVID origins, vaccine deaths – Indictment alleges quid pro quo between EcoHealth Alliance, Fauci senior advisor started with an “upper-mid tier” wine delivery. Sen. Johnson says FDA knew government database “masked” vaccine injuries, rejected transparency update https://justthenews.com/accountability/feds-and-sen-johnson-tag-team-alleged-biden-admin-coverups-covid-origins-covid GOOGL Q1 EPS 5.11, 2.63 exp; Revenue ex-TAC $94.67B, $91.57B exp; Cloud Revenue $20.03B, $18.4B exp. Alphabet (Google) rallied as much as 4.5%. MSFT EPS 4.27, 4.05 exp; Rev $82.9B, $81.462B exp; Cloud Rev $34.68B, $34.32B exp; MSFT soared 4.9% but quickly sank to -4.05% AMZN Q1 EPS 2.78, 1.62 exp; Revenue $185B, $177.234B exp; Amazon sank 6.9% but turned positive on Q2 Sales guidance of $194.0B-$199.0B from $188.873B; AMZN then fell to a 3% loss. META Q1 EPS 10.44, 6.65 exp ($8.03B tax benefit); Revenue $56.31B, $55.513B exp; META sank 7.0% on Capex guidance of $125B-$145B from $115B-$135B Today – Apple is expected to report Q2 EPS of 1.96 and Revenue of $109.662B after the close. This ends Fang reporting season. With the end of upward bias for Fed Day today plus April performance gaming and Apple results tomorrow look for the formation of a short-term top. Expected Economic Data: Mar Personal Income 0.3% m/m, Spending 0.9% PCE Price Index 0.7% m/m & 3.5% y/y; Core PCE Price Index 0.3% m/m & 3.2% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 213k, Continuing Claims 1.815m; Q1 Employment Cost Index 0.8%; Q1 GDP 2.2%, Consumption 1.4%, GDP Price Index 3.8%, Core PCE Price Index 4.1% q/q; Apr Chicago PMI 55.2; Mar LEI -0.2% The usual suspects are ignoring MSFT, META, and AMZN’s tumbles in after hour trading to focus on Google’s rally; Apple’s expected good results today, and April performance gaming. This is why ESMs are +29.50; NGMs are +272.50; USMs are -6/32; and gas & oil are up moderately at 20:32 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6808; 100-day MA: 6851; 150-day MA: 6812; 200-day MA: 6719 DJIA 50-day MA: 47,858;100-day MA: 48,378; 150-day MA: 47,860; 200-day MA: 47,154 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (7136.12 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6500.00 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7048.26 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7141.27 triggers a buy signal @seanmdav: In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court rules that racial gerrymandering, which has been used to create majority black congressional districts for decades, is unconstitutional. Justice Samuel Alito wrote the opinion for the majority. https://x.com/seanmdav/status/2049493449426993290 @OpenSourceZone: Potential map of the south without the VRA restrictions Per NYT: Current map: Republicans: 65, Democrats: 24 Potential map: Republicans: 77 (+12) Democrats: 12 (-12) https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/2049499191320137781 @TheBabylonBee: In Blow to Democrats, SCOTUS Rules They Have to Stop Being Racist https://babylonbee.com/news/in-blow-to-democrats-scotus-rules-they-have-to-stop-being-racist @ClayTravis: There is a legitimate argument that Ketanji Brown Jackson’s appointment to the Supreme Court — which President Joe Biden specifically said was directly intended to put a black woman on the Supreme Court — was unconstitutional under federal law. @RNCResearch: What is your take on Jimmy Kimmel’s “joke” about President Trump’s death and James Comey’s post calling to kill President Trump? Dem Rep. SMITH: President Trump rules like an “authoritarian dictator.” https://t.co/Zyc2nveQI0 @RapidResponse47: @SecWar on Iran: “The biggest adversary we face at this point are the reckless, feckless, and defeatist words of congressional Democrats and some Republicans… two months in on an existential fight for the safety of the American people. Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb. We are proud of this undertaking.” https://t.co/lgXGlZ2r2H Biden DOJ Lawyers Fantasized About Prosecuting Catholic Nuns, Emails Show “I’d like to prosecute any nun who still wears the head habit.”… https://www.dailywire.com/news/exclusive-biden-doj-lawyers-fantasized-about-prosecuting-catholic-nuns-emails-show ‘Crisis of historic magnitude’: Mamdani says State should help with multi-billion budget gap Mayor Zohran Mamdani and City Council Speaker Julie Menin announce a new agreement to lobby for a $1 billion tax rollback and more State aid amid multi-billion dollar City budget gap. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/mamdani-state-help-new-york-city-multi-billion-budget-gap/6495407/ Mamdani wins the NYC Mayoral on beaucoup freebies; four months later declares NYC is bankrupt and needs a bailout. “Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.” – George Carlin | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Comey and Morens Indicted? Color Me S
keptical
by Armageddon Prose
Wednesday, Apr 29, 2026 – 7:08
Originally published via Armageddon Prose:
The Justice Department has announced respective prosecutions of former FBI Director and Russiagate architect James Comey (again, after the first one collapsed into nothing either through incompetence or sabotage) and Fauci capo Peter Morens.
The Comey investigation, however, doesn’t pertain to his well-documented directing of the Russiagate McCarthyite witch hunt designed to subvert the democratic process during the 2016 election; it’s about an Instagram post containing the cryptic phrase “8647,” an alleged reference to assassinating Trump. My prediction: Comey’s well-paid lawyers are going to argue it was innocuous, a sympathetic jury will bite, and he’s going to skate — assuming it ever gets to trial at all.
The Morens prosecution for clumsily trying to skirt FOIA record-keeping laws in the service of covering up his and his boss’s role in engineering SARS-CoV-2 in a dingy offshore CCP lab is much more robust and likely to succeed — if the administration follows through.
As we’ve been through this dog-and-pony show multiple times now, I refuse to breathe any oxygen into these stories until there’s an actual successful prosecution of any Deep State creature for literally anything.
I laid out in great detail the obvious prosecution strategy for Morens as a way to get to Fauci in December 2024; the administration sat on its hands until nearly May 2026 for obscure reasons.
Why now?
—————————————–
Color me skeptical; if mindless cheerleading is what you’re into, there’s an army of X “influencers” — you know, the ones whom Pam Bondi summoned to the White House last year and whom she then trotted out to giddily wave “Epstein file” binders full of nothing for the cameras like shameless toolbags — who will literally say anything in favor of the administration in exchange for clout, access, and probably money.
My political support isn’t for sale, nor is it unconditional.
You only get out of your politicians what you demand; your and my only meager point of leverage as a plebian voter — and it’s not much — is the withholding of our vote and support until the politician or party we support does what you want.
If you’re not willing to withdraw or withhold it in exchange for something meaningful, what you want literally doesn’t matter at all.
This is transactionalism in its rawest form.
If, conversely, you demonstrate over and over that you’re willing to gratefully lap up whatever slop any administration rations out, slop is what’s going to be on the menu.
That’s all that’s worth saying about either the Comey or Morens thing, at least for now.
Benjamin Bartee, author of Broken English Teacher: Notes From Exile (now available in paperback), is an independent Bangkok-based American journalist with opposable thumbs.
GREG HUNTER…
harveyorganblog.com 
