MAY 4//CHAOS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS IRAN FIRES REEMPTIVELY AT DUBAI//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $106.65 TO $4524.85//SILVER CLOSED DOWN $3.05 TO $72.92//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $44.30 TO $1961.50 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $63.00 TO $1479.00//GOLD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM JESSE COLUMBO AND ALASDAIR MACLEOD// EUROPEAN COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM THE UK AND FRANCE ALONG WITH NORWAY//WEEKEND UPDATES RE THE CONFLICT BETWEEN ISRAEL, USA AND IRAN//WEEKEND VIDEO PODCASTS ISRAEL TBN//USA DATA RELEASES//USA ECONOMIC REPORTS/KING NEWS AND GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWS: N. HULSCHER RE THE HARM CAUSED BY THE VACCINE//
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1 657 H MORGAN STANLEY 1
TOTAL: 1 1 MONTH TO DATE: 3,192
JPMORGAN STOPPED 0/1
MAY 4
MAY COMEX MONTH
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2026: 1 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 100 OZ or 0.00311 TONNES
total notices so far: 3192 contracts FOR 319,200 OZ OR 9.928 TONNES
FOR MAY 4
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 120 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.600 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4748 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 23.740 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP DOWN $106.65 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $3.05 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV //// : INVENTORY RESTS AT THE SLV AT 483.604 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 483.604 MILLION
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FINALLY ROSE BY A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED 2238 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 98,237 RISING FROM ITS NEW RECORD LOW OF 95,999 SET MAY 1 AND FINALLY MOVING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $2.03 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S // TRADING. ON MAY 1,, WE HAVE REACHED AT OUR RECORD LOW OI OF 95,999 SURPASSING EVERY DAY NEW OI LOWS SET DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL 2026
NOW ON A NET BASIS OUR SPECULATORS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO GOING LONG. THE FRBNY ON A NET BASIS IS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER TO OUR LONGS ALONG WITH SOME BULLION BANKS AND THEN A HUGE NUMBERS OF LONGS ,OUR CENTRAL BANKERS, TAKE THE LONG SIDE AND TENDER FOR PHYSICAL AT 4 PM EACH NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HUGE SHORTFALL IN PHYSICAL SILVER IN LONDON THERE IS A LOTTERY TO SEE WHO GETS ANY OF THE PHYSICAL SILVER AVAILABLE THAT WHICH THEY ARE OBLIGATED TO DELIVER. THEY WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THEIR PHYSICAL METAL AND IF NOBODY GETS ANY THEY THEN COME BACK THE NEXT DAY AND SO ON. THIS IS IN LONDON, THE HOME OF PHYSICAL SILVER!!
WE ARE FINALLY MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE IN SILVER PRICING AT MAJOR SUPPORT LEVEL OF $70.00. SHORTLY WE WILL AGAIN ATTEMPT TO BREAK
WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2733 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A STRONG SIZED 495 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY TRADING/// (MONTHLY SPREADERS BEGAN OPERATIONS DURING THIS WEEK OF APRIL 24 AND FINISHED AT MONTH’S END).. WE HAD A STRONG 845 CONTRACT T.A.S. ISSUANCE!! / THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $100.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY FAILED ON FRIDAY WITH SILVER’S RISE IN PRICE
THE PRICE STILL FINISHED ABOVE THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $70.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE BUT STILL BELOW THE $100.00 MARK CLOSING AT $75.97 UP $2.38. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WAS AT A VERY STRONG SIZED 845 T.A.S. CONTRACTS !!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING ABOVE THE 100.00 DOLLAR MARK!! AND NOW THE HUGE SUPPORT LEVEL OF 70 DOLLARS!!.MAMMOTH SIZE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE BECOMING THE NORM AT THE COMEX NOW!!
THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 100.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 495 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR STRONG SIZED 845 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING//AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE.
IN ESSENCE WE HUGE GAIN OF 2733 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.38. WE HAD HUGE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING ALL WEEK AND A MAJOR PORTION WILL BE REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE STICKY SPECULATOR LONGS STILL REMAIN STOIC
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.
THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, THROUGHOUT MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING: A STRONG SIZED 874 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS).
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS AS ONE UNIT, BUT SELL THE SHORT SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE LONG SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 199 CONTRACTS OR 995,000 OZ//NEW STANDING IS REDUCED TO 29.900 MILLION OZ/.//
SUMMARY OF OUR MAY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX OI GAIN+// STRONG SIZED 495 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS (/ VI) A STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 845 CONTRACTS
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 206 SILVER CONTRACT//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAY.. ACCUMULATION
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 DAY(S), total 970 contracts: OR 4.850 MILLION OZ (485 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 4.850 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 4.850 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2444 CONTRACTS DITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2,38 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE 495 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS).
INITIAL STANDING: 31.495 MILLION OZ IS NOW REDUCED BY ANOTHER 995,000 OZ THROUGH AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER//NEW STANDING IS NOW 29.900 MILLION OZ
LAST 14 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT ANOTHER 995,000 OZ (AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON) NEW STANDING IS NOW REDUCES TO 29.900 MILLION OZ..
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY (845) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING!
WE HAD 120 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.600 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY BANKERS
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1692 OI CONTRACTS UP TO 368,738 ADVANCING FROM ITS ALL TIME LOW OF 354,581 OI AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE HAVE NOW ADVANCED PAST THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS OF 357,136 SET APRIL 2/.2026. WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAY FROM OUR TWO DECADES OLD: 390,000 CONTRACTS LOW SET IN THE YEAR OF 2001 WITH TRADING FOR GOLD AT $260.00. THUS DURING EARLY APRIL WE HAD AN ALL TIME LOW OI IN COMEX (354,531) BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE COMEX SHIP, NOBODY WANT TO PLAY IN THIS CROOKED CASINO!! (AND THIS CORRELATES WITH SILVER’S LOW OI OF 98,443 CONTRACTS WITH A MUCH HIGHER SILVER PRICE BASE)
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 7608 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A FAIR GAIN IN COMEX OI (1692 ONTRACTS) . THIS STRONG GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.45 //FRIDAY///.
LAST 13 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY 2025 THROUGH TO /MAY 2026)
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27800 OZ/ (0.8646 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 14 CONTRACTS OR 1400 OZ (.0435 TONNES)/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 12.243 TONNES OF GOLD.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING MAY. GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 450 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT A LOW OF 368,738 ADVANCING FROM OUR RECORD LOW OF 354,581 AND WE NOW WITNESSING A LOWER COMEX OI BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH
SILVER ALSO HAS AN ULTRA SMALL SIZED AND EXTREMELY LOW COMEX OI OF 98,237 ONTRACTS// FALLING FROM PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS SET DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN COMEX GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2142 CONTRACTS WITH 1692 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 450 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2142 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 742 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON.
GOLD PRICE ON THURSDAY ROSE BY $13.45
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT(450 ) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 2142 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES 9750 CONTRACTS!!
WE HAVE 1) NOW REVERTED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE SHORT SIDE AND SOME NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE LONG SIDE BUT OTHER SPECS GOING ALSO TO THE SHORT SIDE LED BY THE NOSE BY HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS AND SPREADERS..
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 14 CONTRACTS/1400 OZ// 0.0438 TONNES//NEW STANDING IS NOW ADVANCES TO 12.243 TONNES
3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND FINALIZATION AND SOME GOVT LIQUIDATION // WITH A STRONG LOSS OF EQUITY SHARES/MAY 1 HAVING 1)A $13.45 COMEX PRICE GAIN AND YET WE HAD 2) SPEC LONGS PILING HUGELY ON A NET BASIS, + EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ALSO PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9750 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND AS WELL A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN MAY. (12.243 TONNES). //, CENTRAL BANKERS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4)A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) V) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD(450) AND A SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE (742) FOR RAID PURPOSES
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 3606 CONTRACTS OR 360,600 OZ OR 11.216TONNES IN 2TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1803 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 11.216 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2025, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 11.216 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.315% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2023 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2024: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES
2025: AND NOW 2026
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 11.216 TONNES
SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONG
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE 2238 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 98,237 RISING FROM ITS ALL TIME LOW SET MAY 1.
EFP ISSUANCE 495 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 495 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2238 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 495 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2753 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $2.38
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 14.695 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $2.38
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MAY 4 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.64 PTS OR 0.11%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 319.35 PTS OR 1.24%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 319.35 PTS OR 1.24%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.76%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN 6.8303
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8269 Oil UP TO 104.30 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 112.30 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.8303) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8253 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 1692 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 368,738 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET THIS MONTH AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING FRIDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT ALSO SOME SPECULATORS STILL GOING TO THE SHORT SIDE WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS APRIL CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $13.45).
WE THUS HAD A FAIR GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 2142 CONTRACTS (OR 9.773 TONNES) WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A SMALL CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.EQUATING TO 450 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS TOTALLING 0 CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: ZERO SO FAR!
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: 0 ISSUED SO FAR!
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MAY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2142 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE ($13.45). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MAY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A SMALL SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 742 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS NOW IN FULL FORCE DURING THIS WEEK DURING LONDON COMEX AND LBMA/OTC OPTION EXPIRY WEEK!! (INITIAL MAY CONTRACT MONTH)
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY AT ZERO SO FAR!!
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 1400 OZ (.0438 TONNES)//NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD IS THUS 12.243 TONNESS
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MAY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $13.45)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND FINALIZATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI //
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $13.45
WE HAD 7608 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 2142 CONTRACTS OR 214200 OZ OR 9.773 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3192 notices 319,200 oz 9.928 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 1
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
1 ENTRY
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 1
i) Out of Brinks 43,061.750 oz
total withdrawal 43,061.750 oz
xxxx
adjustments: 1 CUSTOMER TO DEALER
a) Asahi: 50,288.075 oz
b) Dealer to customer Manfra: 1080.083 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI STANDS AT 745 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 701 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 715 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED A SMALL 14 CONTRACTS OR 1400 OZ UNDEREWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI LOST BY 208 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 259,856
JULY GAINED 147 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 1012.
We had 1 contracts filed for today representing 100oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 113 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3,192) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (745 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 393,600 OZ OR (12.243 Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3,192) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(745 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 393,600 OZ OR (12.243 Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in MAY ADVANCES TO 12.243 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY 12.243 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
confirmed volume FRIDAY confirmed 108,527 really awful!! many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
the number provided do not match from yesterday!!!
total pledged gold: 1,960,783.258 oz 60.99 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,960,783.258 tonnes oz 60.99 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 29,277,828.540oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,814,621.044 OZ 491.9011 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 13,463,207.540 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,853,838 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
430.91 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 4
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2 entries
i) Out of JPMorgan: 151,886.800 oz ii) Out of Loomis: 466,093.310
total withdrawal: 617,980.110 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0 entries
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
a) Into CNT 566,065.550 oz b) Into Loomis 406,627.330 oz
total deposit 972,692.880 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
120 CONTRACT(S) (0.600 MILLION OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
1232Contracts (6.160 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
4748 contracts 23.740 MILLION oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 ENTRIES
a) Into CNT 566,065.550 oz
b) Into Loomis 406,627.330 oz
total deposit 972,692.880 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) Out of JPMorgan: 151,886.800 oz ii) Out of Loomis: 466,093.310
total withdrawal: 617,980.110 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments:2
a) customer to dealer CNT 897,761.760 oz
b) Added into registered column: Manfra 370,897.121 oz
Friday volume: 41,401 oz// AWFUL
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 80.307 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 315.253 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2026 OI: 1352 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 247 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 48 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON ON FRIDAY SO WE LOST ANOTHER 199 CONTRACTS THROUGH AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER WHERE THESE BOYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER IN LONDON. (995,000 OZ). OBVIOUSLY THERE IS NO SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND FOR THE BOYS TO TAKE DELIVERY ON.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 245 CONTRACTS UP TO 1784 OI CONTRACTS
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 1957 CONTRACTS UP TO 74,375 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 120 or 600,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume FRIDAY; 50,189 fair
AND NOW MAY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4658 X5,000 oz = 23.740 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1352) AND the number of notices served upon today (120 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2026 contract month: (4748 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (1352) minus number of notices served upon today (120)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the APRIL..contract month equating to 29.900 MILLION OZ.+
NEW STANDING REDUCES T0: 30.780 MILLION OZ WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 80.307 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 141.567/315.253 million: 44.89
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAY 4 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $106.65 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
APRIL 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.142 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.195 TONNES
APRIL 29/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $45.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $85.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 27/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.91 TONNES
APRIL 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP 26.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 11.90TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.783 TONNES
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 1/2026/WITH GOLD UP $134.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.276 TONNES
MAR 31/2026/WITH GOLD UP $119.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.133 TONNES
MAR 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.143 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.562
MAR 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $213.05 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.580 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42
MAR 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $155.30 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.000
MAR 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.286 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $165.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.149 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.991
MAR 20/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $39,55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.855 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.135
MAR 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99
MAR 18/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $111.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.564 TONNES
MAR 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.857 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.708 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1035.768 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
MAY 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.05: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP $2.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.905 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.338 MILLION OZ
APRIL 30 WITH SILVER UP $2.03: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.991 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.243MILLION OZ
APRIL 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.95: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.39: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 24 WITH SILVER UP 0.92: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,23MILLION OZ
APRIL 23WITH SILVER DOWN $2.35: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.489 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488,773MILLION OZ
APRIL 22 WITH SILVER UP 1.43: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262MILLION OZ
aPRIL 21 WITH SILVER DOWN 3.71: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17 WITH SILVER UP $3.09: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.900 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.132 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.477 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.579 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND WITHDRAWAL OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.079 MILLION OZ
MAR 31 WITH SILVER UP $4.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.532 MILLION OZ
MAR 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.74: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.75: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 10.505 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.92: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.490 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $6.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9444 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.761 MILLION OZ
MAR 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.36: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.792 MILLION OZ.
MAR 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.705 MILLION OZ.
The consequences of the Iran war are already driving weaker G7 bonds into multiyear higher yields. They will shape the future of all financial markets and of the currencies themselves.
Markets are meant to discount the future by putting a price on it. But on the evidence, they are failing to do so as the table above intimates. Surely, we all know that the US attack on Iran has created a supply crisis in energy and its derivatives which will raise production costs of every consumer item. If these costs can’t be passed on to consumers, then businesses will go bust, creating mass unemployment.
Higher unemployment and loss of tax revenues destroy government revenues and increase welfare costs. Government finances are already in severe deficit. Yet, driven by Keynesian interventionism, governments will be desperate to increase support of their private sectors and bail out consumers. But all that additional deficit spending will merely collapse G7 currencies’ purchasing power, driving price inflation into the mid-1970s’ outcome and probably even higher.
Already, financially challenged governments with record peace-time debt-to-GDPs are about to find their financial obligations go into hyperdrive. Yet, US treasury bond yields do not reflect these difficulties. We have to look at other G7 economies to see the emerging financing crisis, and nowhere is this more obvious than in Japan and Germany, whose manufacturing bases will be most exposed. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield is shown below:
Japan’s impending financial crisis is the most obvious. With a debt to GDP of about 230%, government finances depend on the lowest possible borrowing costs. With the Bank of Japan still suppressing its short-term policy rate at only 0.75%, the yield on the 10-year JGB is at its highest level since September 1995.
Clearly, the coming supply shock will disrupt the entire basis of Japan’s high debt and ultra-low-interest rate environment. The rise in bond yields to the highest levels this century is just the beginning of a bond market discounting a debt trap. This has negative consequences for other G7 currencies because the low-cost yen is the basis for a carry-trade supporting their debt markets. Furthermore, Japan’s pensions and insurance companies are the largest source of capital exports into global private sectors.
Germany is the other G7 member that has a saving tradition and manufacturing base. Similarly to Japan, its 10-year bund yield is heading into new high ground:
French OATS’ yields are also hitting new highs, as are those of UK gilts. The only G7 nations whose yields have yet to break out on the upside are the US, Canada, and Italy, but their yields have begun to rise as well.
Even with Japan, Germany, France, and the UK leading the way into a global bond crisis, investor sentiment has yet to appreciate the implications of an oil crisis which comes at a time of ultra-high government debt. Last time round it led to an arithmetical average of 15% inflation when government debt-to-GDP averaged 27%. Today’s debt-to-GDP averages 124% across all G7 nations.
We need to consider the consequences of today’s oil shock, which arguably is greater than during the mid-1970. The loss of downstream products such as fertilisers today are due to additional refining capacities in the Gulf having been built since the mid-’70s. Furthermore China, and doubtless other nations, are protecting domestic industries by limiting their exports of the commodities and products directly affected.
It is obvious from the table above that G7 inflation and bond yields do not currently reflect the outcome of today’s oil crisis. This being the case, both metrics face considerable increases in the coming months. Being so mispriced, there is likely to be a sudden shock with consequences for equities, G7 economies, and government finances.
The average level of G7 indebtedness relative to GDP is 4.6 times that of the mid-seventies, and the Rubicon of peace-time debt at over 90% whereby the situation becomes irretrievable was crossed long ago. For a glimpse of what this will mean for bond yields, the long-term chart of the US 10-year treasury note is truly alarming:
It can be only a matter of a short time period before the long bond yield, currently at 4.96% and only 12 basis points below the break-out point, completes the pennant formation and rises into new high ground. We can then expect it to rise considerably and relatively rapidly.
Conclusion
The consequences of America’s war on Iran and the continuing blockade of the Persian Gulf will prove to be too severe for governments to manage. Not only do markets underestimate the economic damage, but they are blind to the debt problem. Since the 1970s G7 governments’ debt-to-GDP has multiplied nearly five times. Consequently, they all face inescapable debt traps, will be unable to finance the deterioration in their own finances, and also the implied extra spending in their attempts to prevent a global slump.
The only possible outcome is a collapse in all confidence in government finances, which will become unfundable — that’s the implication of a debt trap. And if governments cannot fund themselves, their credit simply collapses. And by definition, that credit is the purchasing power of their fiat currencies.
Being true money without government-counterparty risk, gold is the only safe haven from this impending crisis.
end
JESSE COLUMBO
This is a post from Jesse Colombo’s The Bubble Bubble Report—a bestselling newsletter focusing on precious metals investing and global economic risks. We specialize in detailed reports and analyses.
Today I want to share something inspiring and exciting that flies in the face of the pessimism that permeates the precious metals world right now. While many retail investors as well as prominent commentators are, like lemmings, saying in unison that silver’s surge in late 2025 and early 2026 was merely a bubble that has now burst, I have been adamant that there is no bubble and that it didn’t burst, and that silver is just a couple of years into a long-term bull market that should last at least a full decade.
With that in mind, I now want to draw your attention to silver’s weekly chart below, which shows that the correction that began in late January has been forming a triangle pattern, and when such patterns develop in bull markets, they are typically continuation patterns that lead to sharp upward moves once the correction and consolidation phase is complete.
For this bullish scenario to be validated, a decisive breakout from the pattern must occur, accompanied by heavy volume for additional confirmation (read my tutorial to learn more). Assuming that happens, silver’s bull market should resume, making fools of the naysayers, smashing through the $121 peak from January, and advancing to fresh all-time highs.
As I’ve previously explained, silver’s correction over the past few months was necessary to flush out excessive bullish speculative sentiment and overbought conditions, and now that it is no longer overbought, it is in a much healthier position for the bull market to resume:
Further supporting the view that silver will hit and surpass its $121 peak upon a successful breakout from the weekly triangle is the very long-term chart, which shows that in November, silver broke out of a massive cup and handle pattern that had been forming since the 1960s. Based on the sheer scale of that pattern, it projects silver reaching several hundred dollars per ounce, with a minimum target range of $300 to $500 during this bull market.
Note how on the chart below, which uses 3-month candles, the correction of the past few months is barely visible, and the breakout from the cup and handle pattern remains fully intact and in play, as evidenced by silver holding above the key $50 level that marked the top of the pattern.
Basically, what happened in silver over the past six months is that its long-term bull market got underway and began to heat up, then it broke above the critical $50 level that so many had been watching for so long (see my related report), and then quickly surged to as high as $121 as hordes of speculators piled in, causing it to temporarily overheat.
Most of the speculators who piled in during January were Johnny-come-latelys who entered near the peak, which was a short-term peak, not a long-term one, and likely had little interest in silver when I first laid out my bullish thesis back in the $20s in early 2024.
These speculators were weak hands, and when the inevitable cool-off period arrived, as I warned just days before, they were spooked and shaken out, and are now proclaiming that silver was just a bubble and that it is all downhill from here. I vehemently disagree with that.
After three months of consolidation, the weak hands have largely been shaken out, silver is no longer overheated or overbought, and deep pessimism has become the dominant sentiment. It boggles my mind to see investors more pessimistic with silver at $75 than they were at $35, you would think it had crashed to $15!
But if you are familiar with contrarian logic, the most powerful rallies and bull markets are born out of periods of extreme pessimism. Against that backdrop, the weekly triangle pattern now forming is particularly compelling and worth watching closely, and my bet is that when the breakout occurs, the fireworks will begin once again. As always, I’ll keep you updated on what I’m seeing.
If you enjoyed today’s update, I recommend checking out my other related reports:
Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.
All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 270 and 269
LONDON PAUL//MUST VIEW
5. COMMODITY REPORT//..FERTILIZER
ZeroHedge Fertilizer Debate: Hormuz Closure Could Usher In New Arab Spring
Saturday, May 02, 2026 – 11:05 AM
On Friday, ZeroHedge, in partnership with the Macro Dirt Podcast, hosted a debate focused on the implications for agriculture, inflation, and global supply chains given the current situation in Iran. The discussion was illuminating and worth a rewatch if you missed it.
The discussion featured former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell, Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, and was hosted by Tony Greer and Jared Dillian.
The Damage Has Been Done
Even in a best case scenario where shipping lanes reopen immediately, Santiago Capital’s Brent Johnson says the damage is already embedded in the system.
“If everything opens tomorrow in the strait and goes back 100% to normal, there’s a five to six week open spot where ships are not arriving where they typically arrived.”
The warning came during last night’s ZH deep dive into a potential fertilizer and farming crisis, with possible Arab Spring-level disruptions in the Third World, but as Johnson said “the U.S. is not immune”.
Johnson joined Tony Greer and Jared Dillian of the Macro Dirt Podcast and former Bridgewater head of commodities Alex Campbell who now writes at campbellramble.ai. Here were the key moments for those short on time:
“Perfect Storm”
The five to six week wartime-gap (assuming that’s all) is colliding directly with the agricultural calendar.
Johnson: “The planting season is largely already over. And the fertilizers that would have normally been available were not. And those that were available were higher priced… You look at the number of bankruptcies that are being filed by farmers in the United States and it’s spiked.”
At the same time, weather risk is rising. “This is an El Niño year… and that throws all kinds of havoc with weather patterns.” The combination, he says, raises the probability of a delayed but meaningful shock.
“You could have a perfect storm six to nine months from now.”
Johnson points to prior episodes where similar conditions led to sharp price moves. “In 2007 and 2008, there was a food crisis… there was a supply disruption, a bad harvest, and policy decisions that diverted supply.” The result was significant inflation in staple commodities: “In 2007 and ‘08, rice spiked almost 200%. In 2010 and 11, wheat price went up 130%.”
“In all of these cases, you started to have social unrest” a la Arab Spring.
“When people are full and warm, they don’t typically protest. But when they’re cold and hungry, that’s when they start taking to the streets.”
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) May 2, 2026
Arab Spring 2.0
“When I was looking at prior food crisis… 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011… they were bad, but one of the reasons I think they could be worse now… at the time, those emerging markets and those developing countries were a lot more agrarian-based because that’s what they could afford.”
According to Johnson, over the past two decades, that standard of living… and importantly the expectation of a standard of living. “As they have moved into the middle class in places like China and India… they’ve gotten accustomed to having meat once in a while.”
Meat = more resource intensive. “People don’t really consume corn, but it’s a big part of the food stock that goes into poultry or beef… to grow the animal protein that people have gotten accustomed to eating.”
In developing countries, this could mean a reversion to poverty they’d expected was over:
“Now, if I have to suddenly start going back to just eating rice and I’m no longer having meat… I’m going to be pissed off.”
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) May 2, 2026
To listen the full discussion where Brent, Tony, Jared, and Alex go deep into the weeds for how investors can hedge against this scenario, watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.64 PTS OR 0.11%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 319.35 PTS OR 1.24%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 319.35 PTS OR 1.24%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.76%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN 6.8303
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8269 Oil UP TO 104.30 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 112.30 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.8303) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8253 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.8303
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.8263
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 319.35 PTS OR 1.24%
2. Nikkei closed UP 228.30 PTS OR 0.38%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 104.80
BRENT; 112.20
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.29/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1704 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.496 DOWN 0 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 157.13… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.719 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN( 6.8303 AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.8263
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.0713 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.917// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.543%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.849%
3j Gold at $4564.20 //Silver at: 73.44 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 42/ 100 roubles/75.56
3m oil (WTI) into the 104 dollar handle for WTI and 112 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.13 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.496% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.719 DOWN 1 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7838 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9178
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.405 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.983 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.925 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.20 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.953 DOWN 1 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.606 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.547 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.0690 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
“Just Another Dip Investors Will Buy”: Futures Drop, Oil Rises On Renewed Iran Tension
Monday, May 04, 2026 – 08:39 AM
US futures whipsawed and crude oil spiked higher as tensions flared up again in the Middle East, taking the focus off a run of strong earnings by megacap tech companies. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.2% from Friday’s record highs, falling as much as 0.5% just minutes earlier after Iran’s Fars agency claimed two missiles hit an American patrol boat, before erasing most of the declines after the US denied a ship was hit. All of this after Trump said Sunday that US Navy will guide ships out of the Strait of Hormuz from Hormuz in a move called “Project Freedom” while Iran issued Trump a one-month deadline for negotiations on its proposed 14-point deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. European stocks were mostly red while tech-heavy Asia indexes in South Korea and Taiwan surged in Monday trading. In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mixed: GOOGL (+0.6%), AMZN (+0.6%), and META (+0.7%) are outperforming, while AAPL and MSFT are lower. Brent crude surged more than 5% to trade above $113 a barrel before paring the gain, while bitcoin and gold traded in a mirror image. Interest rates are higher with the 10Y yield rising 4bps to 4.41%; WTI crude added ~$2 to $104 this morning having briefly traded above $107; base metals are higher, while gold and silver both sliding more than 2%. Looking at the US economic data calendar slate includes March factory orders at 10am. Fed speaker slate includes New York Fed President John Williams at 12:50pm
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Alphabet +0.2%, Amazon -0.08%, Apple -0.4%, Nvidia -0.06%, Meta -0.09%, Microsoft -0.4%, Tesla +0.2%)
Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rising in US premarket trading after Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 for the first time in more than three months, buoyed by renewed risk appetite in the stock market.
Celcuity (CELC) jumps 15% after its Phase 3 trial of gedatolisib plus fulvestrant in mutant breast cancer patients met its primary endpoint.
EBay Inc. (EBAY) gains 8% as GameStop Corp. is proposing to buy the e-commerce company for about $56 billion in cash and stock, a bold attempt by Ryan Cohen to take over a name several times larger. GameStop (GME) falls about 1%.
Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) gains 57% after Long Lake Management agreed to buy the company for $9.50 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at about $6.3 billion. Global Business Travel Group is a travel platform spun out of American Express.
Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) falls 7% after the cruise-line operator gave a forecast for second-quarter profit that missed expectations and slashed a full-year outlook. The war in Iran has driven up fuel costs and hurt demand, the company said.
In deals, GameStop proposed to buy eBay for about $56 billion in cash and stock, a bold attempt by Ryan Cohen to take over a storied e-commerce name several times larger. Some have wondered if Blockbuster or Circuit City would announce a hostile takeover of GameStop while it is buying eBay.
Iran moved to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for oil shipping, after President Donald Trump said the US would begin guiding ships not involved in the conflict through the waterway from Monday. The heightened tensions stalled a global stocks rally driven by optimism around the artificial intelligence trade and buoyant tech earnings. Sentiment was dented after Iran’s Fars agency claimed two missiles hit an American patrol boat, before erasing most of the declines after the US denied a ship was hit; the rapid recovery suggested the rally may not be over. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned European leaders that Trump is disappointed with their reluctance to assist with the war.
“This is just another dip that investors will want to buy into,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier in Paris. “Yes, the news from Iran led to a spike in oil prices but we’re now used to those. Investors are very much focused on the surprisingly good earnings season we’ve had so far, on the AI trade.”
Elsewhere, the AI narrative has continued to capture attention and tech-heavy Asia indexes in South Korea and Taiwan surged in Monday trading. However, some investors are using the rally to book profits, with hedge fund sharply unwinding risk in technology stocks for a second straight week, according to Goldman’s Prime Brokerage.
As Bloomberg notes, first-quarter earnings strength hasn’t been limited to megacap tech. It’s showing up across sectors. Small caps are on a tear, bank profits are booming and firms keep plowing past macroeconomic obstacles. The breadth of earnings revisions has even accelerated since the start of earnings season. The EPS surprise for the median S&P 500 stock in Q1 is 6%, the strongest in four years, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
Global stocks have been rising for more than a month as traders have set aside concerns about the economic fallout from the Middle East hostilities, with signs of corporate resilience driving US stocks to their best month since 2020. The proportion of companies missing analysts’ estimates is hovering at the lowest level since 2021 as earnings wind down for two-thirds of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index, which has posted five consecutive week of gains.
“We’ve gone from a market mainly driven by geopolitics to a market focused on earnings and these have been really positive across the board,” said Vincent Juvyns, chief investment strategist at ING in Brussels “Tech has been a driving force, but financial and energy stocks have also lifted indexes and earnings expectations.”
European shares slipped as carmakers fell following US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat. The Stoxx Europe 600 index declined about 0.5%, with the automobiles and parts sector down more than 1%. Mercedes-Benz Group AG dropped 2% and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG slid 1.9%. Trump said he would raise tariffs on European auto imports to 25%, adding to woes for the sector after a tepid earnings season. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
Nokia shares jump as much as 9% to their highest in 16 years as they play catch up with moves in the ADRs since Thursday’s European close
Umicore shares rise as much as 16%, the steepest gain in 11 months, after the Belgian materials technology group said it expects group adjusted Ebitda for FY2026 to approach €1 billion, significantly above estimates
Sinch gains as much as 20%, the most since July last year. The company, which sells cloud communication services, tracked gains in Twilio, which reported profit that beat analyst estimates and revenue growth forecasts
Sanofi falls as much as 2% after Morgan Stanley cut to equal-weight from overweight, saying that while recent 1Q numbers may provide scope for a 2Q guidance raise, the investment story otherwise remains “catalyst-light” with key pipeline drug trial readouts now expected in 2027
Earlier in the session, AI chipmakers helped Taiwanese and Korean stock benchmarks reach record highs, helping the MSCI Asia Pacific jump as much as 2.3% on Monday, the most since April 8, and rising to new record highs. Tech-heavy benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan surged more than 4.5% each. The moves came after the S&P 500 Index extended a record-breaking streak Friday to mark a fifth week of gains, following solid earnings from tech mega caps. The AI theme — a dominant feature of markets before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict — has returned to the forefront as last month’s ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran calmed investor nerves. Asia’s benchmark surged more than 13% in April, erasing almost all of the declines suffered in March. It is up 15% so far this year. “Investors are moving past the initial shock from the Middle East tensions, with more joining the FOMO trade,” said Francis Tan, Asia chief strategist at Indosuez Wealth in Singapore. Shares of SK Hynix soared nearly 13% on Monday to a record, while TSMC’s jumped 6.6% to their all-time high. Samsung’s stock also jumped more than 5% to a record. Markets in mainland China and Japan were among those shut for holidays.
Markets like South Korea are currently performing well because of this AI-driven trade or hype, Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “I would be cautiously optimistic on the Asian market in general,” as the geopolitical uncertainty and high oil prices may be a constraint to equities, she said.
Oil pared early declines, with WTI above $101.50, as traders remained skeptical about President Trump’s proposal to guide neutral ships through the Strait of Hormuz after the Wall Street Journal reported the plan didn’t currently involve Navy escorts. S&P 500 E‑mini futures rise 0.1%, while Nasdaq contracts gain 0.4%. In FX, the yen spiked higher earlier with USD/JPY now trading near 156.80. Traders remain on watch for further FX intervention amid thin liquidity with Japanese and UK markets closed. Gold was little changed, hovering near $4,610 an ounce. Bitcoin rose to a three-month high above $80,000. Treasury futures edged lower to around 110‑18, with cash Treasuries closed for the Japan holiday.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erases a 0.2% drop and traded near session highs following a sharp escalation in Iran tensions; USD/JPY gained to trade near session highs of 157.10 falling as much as 0.8% to 155.72 following what is now a third failed intervention. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government’s stance has been clear, when asked whether the authorities remain ready to intervene in the currency market to prop up the yen. Katayama said “no comments” when asked if authorities intervened in the market on Monday.
In rates, treasuries are lower as oil prices rise amid heightened Middle East tensions after US President Donald Trump said the US would guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz. US yields are 3bp-4bp cheaper across a flatter yield curve, tightening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 0.5bp and 1.5bp respectively. 10-year trades near session high, up 3.5bp to about 4.41%. IG dollar issuance slate includes one small deal so far. Dealers expect about $40 billion of supply this week and about $175 billion for the month. Bunds fell with shorter maturities underperforming; two-year yield rises 4bps to 2.68% as ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir says a June hike is “all but inevitable.” Treasury auctions resume next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year sales
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up more than 3%, as Iran moved to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump said the US would begin guiding ships not involved in the conflict through the waterway from Monday. Iran surged after Iran’s Fars agency claimed two missiles hit an American patrol boat, before erasing most of the declines after the US denied a ship was hit.
Looking at the US economic data calendar slate includes March factory orders at 10am. Fed speaker slate includes New York Fed President John Williams at 12:50pm
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.2%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%,
Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
10-year Treasury yield 4.40%, +3bps
VIX +0.5 points at 17.5
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1,193.43
euro little changed at $1.1719
WTI crude +0.6% at $103.12/barrel
Top Overnight News
Oil jumped after Iran’s FARS news agency claimed that two missiles had hit a US warship that ignored warnings. Donald Trump had said that the US would begin guiding neutral ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting today. Iran warned the move would breach the ceasefire, Al Mayadeen reported. OPEC+ agreed to raise June quotas by 188,000 barrels a day, a symbolic increase with actual supply dependent on the reopening of Hormuz. BBG
Crew members from an Iranian ship seized by the US after trying to breach its military blockade last month have been transferred to Pakistan for repatriation, according to Pakistan’s foreign ministry. CNN
A sudden surge in the yen ensured traders remained on edge over the potential for Japanese authorities to step back into the market after last week’s intervention to curb declines: BBG
China ordered local companies to defy US sanctions for the first time, telling them to ignore restrictions on five domestic refiners linked to Iran’s oil trade. BBG
US senators propose an act on the China threat to strategic interests and the US Senators’ China threat resolution is bipartisan.
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile surged to a record $397 billion, as operating earnings rose 18% in Greg Abel’s first quarter as CEO. The firm sold a net $8.1 billion of equities. BBG
The Bank of Korea’s senior deputy governor said forward guidance on monetary policy would become more hawkish at the next meeting later this month, as it was time to consider interest rate hikes, according to pool reports shared by the central bank on Monday. RTRS
Russia has stepped up security protocols for President Vladimir Putin amid fears of assassination as he grows more isolated and absorbed by his war in Ukraine. FT
Global airlines have cut 2mn seats from their May schedules within the past two weeks, as concerns about fuel availability in the coming weeks intensify. Thousands of flights have been cancelled and several services have switched to smaller or more fuel-efficient aircraft to conserve fuel as they brace for supply disruption, according to data from analytics company Cirium. FT
GameStop offered to buy eBay for about $56 billion in cash and stock, targeting a company several times its size. EBay shares surged about 10% premarket but remained substantially below the offer price. BBG
Anthropic is nearing a deal to create a new joint venture that will sell AI tools to PE-backed companies. WSJ
Wednesday will amount to a sort of Groundhog Day for US bond dealers, who will — as has been the case for more than a year now — be watching for any change in guidance from the Treasury in its latest plan for debt issuance: BBG
Australia’s central bank is set to entrench its status as a hawkish outlier with a third straight interest-rate hike, diverging from peers that are mainly sitting tight to observe fallout from the US-Iran conflict: BBG
South Korea’s largest pension fund removed its cap on currency hedging last month, allowing it to exercise more heft in the foreign exchange market at a time of won weakness: BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly firmer, although thinner liquidity prevailed amid the absence of Japanese and Mainland Chinese markets. ASX 200 trimmed early gains but remained rangebound ahead of the RBA decision, where a 25bps hike is expected. KOSPI surged at the open, with chip giants leading the market higher, SK Hynix +10%, Samsung Electronics +3.5%. Hang Seng opened higher, supported by tech strength, albeit Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect trading were closed due to the Labour Day holiday in Mainland China.
Top Asian News
Indian HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 54.7 vs. Exp. 55.9 (Prev. 53.9).
Australian Building Permits YoY Prel (Mar) Y/Y 9.0% (Prev. 14.0%).
Australian ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (Apr) M/M -0.8% (Prev. -3.1%).
Australian Private House Approvals MoM Prel (Mar) M/M 12% (Prev. 0.2%).
Australian Building Permits MoM Prel (Mar) M/M -10.5% (Prev. 29.7%).
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark, and have gradually moved lower, alongside a pick-up in energy prices. The DAX 40 (+0.3%) is the outperforming major this morning, whilst the IBEX 35 (-1%) lags vs peers. As a reminder, the FTSE 100 is closed on account of the UK’s May Bank Holiday. The focus this morning has been on a) geopols and b) trade. (See geopolitical section above for details). On the trade front, Trump threatened the EU with 25% tariffs on European cars/trucks, after suggesting that the bloc is not complying with the trade deal. The White House said that it would implement the tariffs through Section 232, which are typically subject to long due process/probes. The Autos sector in Europe this morning has been mildly hit following Trump’s threat, with the likes of BMW (-1.3%) and Mercedes (-1.2%) on the backfoot, whilst Stellantis (-0.1%) remains fairly resilient. The divergence is explained by BMW/Mercedes importing many of their cars into the US through European factories, whilst Stellantis has a higher industrial presence within the region. European sectors are mixed. Media and Tech take the top two spots, whilst Autos and Media are the clear laggards. The Tech sector gains follow the strength seen in APAC trade overnight, whereby SK Hynix shares rallied 12%, as the sector reacted to continued optimism surrounding strong spending for AI data centres.
Top European News
Some Labour MPs said it was imperative that Chancellor Rachel Reeves stayed in post to reassure markets even if there was a change of leadership. Labour MPs feared bond market chaos if Rachel Reeves was ousted alongside UK PM Starmer, according to The Sunday Times. Reeves and Starmer are expected to come under pressure if local elections go as badly as feared.
Wes Streeting had the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge within days, according to The Telegraph. He had reportedly recruited more than 81 MPs, the minimum needed to trigger a challenge. UK PM Starmer was alerted to Streeting’s plans after a Downing Street staffer accidentally texted details. Some Streeting supporters want him to strike as soon as the Friday after the local elections, according to The Telegraph.
PM Starmer loyalists on Labour’s ruling body are no longer prepared to block Andy Burnham’s return to Parliament, according to The Telegraph.
Cabinet allies of UK PM Starmer have reportedly urged Labour MPs to back the PM and avoid a leadership contest, FT reported.
Wes Streeting is ready to launch leadership challenge against Starmer, The Telegraph reported; he has recruited enough MPs to trigger a contest, with supporters calling for him to strike after local elections next week.Andy Burnham has a plan to return to Westminster ‘within weeks’, according to the Guardian, citing allies.
FX
G10s are mixed against a relatively flat USD; the Kiwi outperforms a touch, whilst the Swiss Franc marginally lags. Ultimately, price action has been lacklustre throughout the European morning, awaiting updates on the geopolitical and trade front.
DXY remains within a 97.97 to 98.29 range, and well below its 100- and 200-DMA at 98.46 and 98.54, respectively. The Dollar has been moving incrementally higher throughout the European morning, alongside a bid in the energy complex. Focus has ultimately been on the geopolitical situation, whereby President Trump announced plans to guide neutral ships safely through the Strait, over the weekend. Unsurprisingly, this was met with resistance by the Iranians, with an official this morning spurring some mild risk off, after he said that the US would be attacked if they approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz.
EUR is essentially flat, and trades around 1.1720 within a 1.1711 to 1.1750 range; the trough is in close proximity to both its 21- and 100-DMA at 1.1711 and 1.1709, respectively. The single currency has had several Final EZ Manufacturing PMIs to digest, but they were broadly subject to only very mild revisions. Also of note was the release of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, which saw upward revisions to near-term inflation, whilst remaining unchanged on a longer-term basis. No move on this.
JPY is currently flat vs USD this morning, but did experience some volatile trade in the Asia session, amidst thin liquidity (Japan on holiday for Golden Week). A sharp dip of circa. 38 pips was seen in USD/JPY overnight, but this move mostly pared as the session progressed. Touted intervention at this time, but markets will look for confirmation. MUFG opines that whether this bout of intervention proves effective, will depend on fundamentals such as Fed-BoJ policy divergence. In its base case, analysts see two BoJ hikes this year, which would allow “a gradual move lower in USD/JPY towards the 152 levels”. USD/JPY currently trades around 157.00 (vs 155.70 trough). The potential intervention today didn’t quite lead the pair down to recent troughs of 155.48; a level not seen since late-Feb of this year.
India is reportedly mulling steps to make Dollar inflows more attractive, to help the weak INR, sources suggest; non-resident FX deposit scheme and tax reliefs on foreign government bonds are reportedly being looked into.
Fixed Income
A slightly bearish start to the week, though conditions are thin on account of holidays in China, Japan and the UK.
USTs down to a 110-15+ trough this morning, hit by an uptick in energy, which reverberated through on a wider airing of comments from Iran regarding the US’ activity around Hormuz. At most, USTs have been lower by 5+ ticks. Ahead, we await remarks from Fed’s Williams and then the financing estimates ahead of refunding later in the week.
From Williams, we are attentive to his view on forward guidance after several Fed members, including three voters, objected to language implying the next move would be a cut. In his most recent remarks, Williams described policy as modestly restrictive and well-positioned, adding that the Middle East conflict was already lifting inflation.
Bunds are in-fitting directionally, though in a slightly wider range and with modestly greater pressure on catch-up from the long weekend. Hit a 125.09 base with losses of 27 ticks at most, bottoming alongside the above move in USTs. No real reaction to the region’s Final Manufacturing PMIs, or the latest ECB SPF, which saw near-term inflation revised up but the longer-term view maintained.
Commodities
Energy benchmarks are at highs, firmer by in excess of USD 2/bbl for WTI and Brent and over EUR 0.50/MWh for Dutch TTF.
Specifics for the space include US President Trump announcing Project Freedom, to get neutral vessels out of Hormuz. In response, Iran said US interference would be considered a ceasefire violation. Since, and prompting notable energy upside, the Iranian Major Abdullahi said any foreign forces, but particularly US, would be attacked if they approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz.
The latter update was enough to lift WTI Jun’26 and Brent Jul’26 to highs of USD 104.36/bbl and USD 110.68/bbl, respectively. Gains that weighed on the equity and fixed income complexes while providing support to the USD. Note, this entirely overshadowed more constructive updates, such as the US handing over 22 crew members from the MV Touska, an Iranian container ship.
Ahead, we have remarks from POTUS at 20:00BST. Before that, geopolitical updates around Hormuz or the Iranian proposals, which Trump said were unlikely to be accepted as Iran had “not yet paid a big enough price”, will be in focus.
Spot gold on the backfoot, as the inverse correlation between energy and the precious metal sends it to a USD 4574/oz low, with downside of near 1% on the session. Furthermore, conditions were a little thin overnight, given the absence of Japan and mainland China. The latter point is weighing on copper prices, while conditions there are thin on account of the UK holiday, and as such, there is no LME trade.
Seven OPEC+ countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188k BPD (as expected) in June 2026, according to OPEC. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to market stability, said they would continue to monitor market conditions, and are set to meet again on June 7th. As a reminder, the UAE withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1st, 2026.
ADNOC said it would award USD 55bln in projects for 2026-2028 to advance its growth strategy. Co. said the awards would reinforce its five-year capital expenditure plan and support a new phase of project execution across its value chain to meet growing global energy demand.
US President Trump said the US is producing and selling more oil right now.
Trade/Tariffs
European Commission said it is implementing EU-US trade agreement with standard legislative practice; it is keeping US admin fully informed throughout. Will keep options open to protect EU interests if the US takes measures inconsistent with trade deal.
US President Trump said his trip to China with President Xi will be great.
US President Trump said EU is not complying with trade deal and he will increase tariffs on EU cars and truck imports into the US; tariff will be increased to 25%. It is fully understood and agreed that, if they produce Cars and Trucks in U.S.A. Plants, there will be NO TARIFF.
Australian PM Albanese said Australia signed a joint declaration on economic security cooperation with Japan; agreement will make the countries more resilient to economic shocks and uncertainty. Australian PM noted a joint statement on critical minerals with Japan elevates critical minerals to a core pillar of economic and security relationship, and defence and security cooperation will further develop the already advanced defence relationship.
UAE confirms ongoing discussions with the US on an FX swap agreement.
EU Commission President von der Leyen said the Canada-EU partnership is strengthening.
EU Parliamentary Delegation to the US Chair Benifei said he will call for the European Commission to bring out the “trade bazooka”, as they need a mechanism that makes violating trade agreements too costly for the US.
Australian PM Albanese said Australia signed a joint declaration on economic security cooperation with Japan; agreement will make the countries more resilient to economic shocks and uncertainty. Australian PM noted a joint statement on critical minerals with Japan elevates critical minerals to a core pillar of economic and security relationship, and defence and security cooperation will further develop the already advanced defence relationship.
Japanese PM Takaichi is to meet with Australian PM Albanese to discuss energy and rare earths.
Central Banks
ECB’s Kazimir said policy tightening in June is all but inevitable. Europe is increasingly likely to face a prolonged period of broad-based price increases, with higher energy prices set to spread to the rest of the economy.
ECB’s Simkus said it is clear that they have deviated from the baseline scenario.
ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2’26): Headline and core HICP inflation revised up in the near term, while remaining unchanged further out. Headline and core HICP inflation revised up in the near term, while remaining unchanged further out. Real GDP growth expectations revised down for 2026 and 2027, but unchanged thereafter. Unemployment rate expectations unchanged.
ECB’s Villeroy said they are facing an unprecedented shock. Expects France to have a deficit of 5% of GDP, should avoid a recession.
ECB’s Muller said ECB rate is at more-or-less neutral level and allows time to wait.
ECB’s Rehn said fast action is needed if second-round inflation is seen.
ECB Wunsch FT interview: “Europe ‘naive’ in clinging to old economic model”.
RBNZ Board Member Gai said supply shocks such as the Hormuz situation have raised the neutral rate.
BoK Deputy Governor said it is time to think about a rate hike, Yonhap reported; cites more resilient growth and higher inflation than expected.
US Event Calendar
10:00 am: United States Mar Factory Orders, est. 0.59%, prior 0%
10:00 am: United States Mar F Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
10:00 am: United States Mar F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
1b European opening report
Trump says US is to “guide” ships through the Strait, though Iran threatens attacks on those attempting to enter – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, May 04, 2026 – 06:29 AM
US President Trump posted on Sunday that the US will guide neutral ships safely out of the Strait of Hormuz under “Project Freedom”, beginning Monday morning Middle East time.
An Iranian official said any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire. Iranian Major Abdullahi said any foreign armed forces, particularly the US, would be attacked if they approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz.
European bourses mostly lower on geopolitical risk; Autos lag as Trump threatens a 25% tariff on EU cars.
US equity futures are modestly mixed. GameStop (-0.8%) is offering to purchase eBay (+8%) for USD 56bln, WSJ reports.
G10 mixed against the USD, JPY pares back towards 157 (vs 155.70 trough) with traders on intervention watch.
Crude lifted on escalatory Iranian rhetoric and ahead of Trump’s speech, energy gains dent XAU.
Looking ahead, highlights include Global Manufacturing PMI Finals (Apr), US Factory Orders (Mar), and US President Trump. Speakers include Fed’s Williams, BoC’s Macklem and Rogers, ECB’s Cipollone, de Guindos. Earnings from Palantir, ONSemi, Pinterest, Norwegian Cruise Line, Tyson Foods. Holiday: UK May Bank Holiday.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
IRANIAN WAR
US
US President Trump posted on Sunday that the US will guide neutral ships safely out of the Strait of Hormuz under “Project Freedom”, beginning Monday morning Middle East time, and several countries have asked the US to help free ships locked up in the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Trump said US representatives are having very positive discussions with Iran, which could lead to something very positive for all.
US President Trump said the ship movement is a humanitarian gesture and is intended to free ships, crews, companies and countries that have done nothing wrong, and any interference with the humanitarian process will have to be dealt with forcefully.
US President Trump posted at 23:47 BST on May 2nd that he would review Iran’s proposal but “can’t imagine that it would be acceptable”, Trump added that Iran had “not yet paid a big enough price”, according to Truth Social.
US President Trump said late Friday that he was “not satisfied” with the new peace proposal from Iran.
A senior foreign diplomat inside Tehran linked to US-Iran negotiations said Iranians expected “hostilities will resume” after an extended diplomatic stalemate, according to MS NOW on May 2nd.
US sent on Sunday another amended draft for an agreement to end the war in response to Iranian officials’ latest proposal, Axios sources said.
Trump told reporters the US could restart Iran strikes “if they misbehave”.
US Senator Graham urged Trump to “finish the job” in Iran if Tehran remained “provocative”, according to the Financial Times.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said oil prices were “going to be much lower” on the other side of the conflict, according to Fox Business. Bessent said he “wouldn’t be surprised” to see more ships move through the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Trump, on Iran, said “it is going very well”.
US President Trump on Friday sent letters to Congress explaining that due to the ongoing ceasefire, he doesn’t need its authorisation for ongoing military operations in Iran, NBC reported.
US and Iran remain far apart, however, on the substantive issues of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme, WSJ reported on Friday, citing sources, an indication negotiations will continue to be fraught.
A small group of US Senate Republicans are working behind the scenes on an authorisation of military force regarding Iran that can be acted if President Trump resumes strikes, Semafor reported citing sources.
US CENTCOM posted it will begin supporting Project Freedom from May 4; “US military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members”.
The new Strait of Hormuz initiative will not necessarily include US Navy ships escorting commercial ships, according to two US officials cited by Axios’ Ravid; US Navy ships will be “in the vicinity”. One of the officials said US Navy ships will be “in the vicinity” in case they need to prevent Iran’s military from attacking commercial ships moving through the strait. The officials said the US navy is going to provide commercial ships with information on the best maritime lanes in the strait especially when it comes to using lanes that were not mined by the Iranian military.
The US has handed over 22 crew members from the seized Iranian container ship MV Touska to Pakistan, journalist Mallick reported citing the Foreign Ministry of Pakistan.
US President Trump’s frustration with the Iran stalemate prompted a Hormuz gambit, Axios reports; source says it could be the “beginning of a process that could lead to a confrontation with the Iranians”. A source close to the President described this as the “beginning of a process that could lead to a confrontation with the Iranians”.
IRAN
Iran sent a 14-point proposal to Pakistani mediators, according to Tasnim. Iran wants key issues resolved within 30 days. Iran called for an end to multi-front hostilities including Lebanon, and demanded guarantees against military aggression, a US troop withdrawal from the region, an end to the naval blockade and sanctions, the release of frozen assets, and compensation payments.
Negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme would take place after the war ended, according to Axios.
Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz while postponing talks on nuclear energy, according to a senior Iranian official cited by Reuters.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran is open to diplomacy if the US drops its excessive demands and stops using the language of threats against the country, Press TV reported.
Iran’s Rahimi told Al-Mayadeen the negotiations were not conducted by telephone as Trump claims, but rather through the Pakistani mediator and sometimes through an exchange of messages with Iran’s FM Araghchi.
Pakistani and Iranian Foreign Ministers held a call to discuss regional situation and the ongoing diplomatic efforts, according to Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry.
The head of the national security commission of the Iranian parliament said any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire. “The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would not be managed by Trump’s delusional posted!”.
US CENTCOM said Iranian Ship Touska that was captured by US Forces has been handed over to Pakistan along with the crew so that it could be returned to Iran, Pakistani journalist Mallick posted. “Alongside Pres Trump’s announcement discussions with Iran that can lead to something positive — Compelled to say, Game Set Match — Deal!”, Mallick said.
IRGC unveils a new map of the Strait of Hormuz area which is under Iranian control. From the south of the line between Mount Mubarak in Iran and south of Fujairah in the UAE. From the west of the line between the end of Qeshm Island in Iran and Umm Al-Qawin in the UAE.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said that the US has a hard time quitting its maximalist demands. We received America’s response through Pakistan. The issues presented by the United States are under review. Issues about enrichment and materials raised are mostly speculation. The US response is being considered. At this stage, we are not talking about anything other than a complete cessation of the war.
“Despite the war, Iran continues to export to six key markets, including China, India, Russia, Turkey, Oman and Armenia”, SNN reported citing the Iranian Bushehr Chamber of Commerce.
China is reportedly prodding Iranian officials to negotiate with the US, while also quietly allowing its companies to give Iran commercial support that could help Iran’s military if it goes back into a full-blown war, NYT reported.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran is open to diplomacy in case the US drops its excessive demands and stops using the language of threats against the country, Press TV reported.
IRGC Spokesperson said “Other maritime movements contrary to the declared principles of the IRGC Navy will face serious risks. Violating vessels will be stopped by force.”.
Iranian Major Abdullahi said any foreign armed forces, particularly the US, would be attacked if they approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistani and Iranian Foreign Ministers held a call to discuss regional situation and the ongoing diplomatic efforts, according to Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry.
Joint Maritime Information Centre said “The maritime security threat level in the SoH remains critical due to ongoing regional military operations”, UKMTO posted. “Mariners should expect increased naval presence, enhanced force protection postures, potential VHF hailing, and congestion near anchorage areas.”.
UKMTO reported an incident 78 NM north of Fujairah, UAE; “a tanker has reported being hit by unknown projectiles. All crew reported safe”.
ISRAEL/LEBANON
Washington informed Israel that the ceasefire with Lebanon will remain in effect despite any developments with Iran, Al Jazeera reported citing Channel 12 sources.
Israel told people in 11 towns and villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate, according to the Israeli military.
Israel said it would buy two squadrons of fighter jets from the US, according to Israel’s defence ministry.
Israeli PM Netanyahu was set to convene his security cabinet to discuss the Iran ceasefire and Gaza, according to The Times of Israel and Kan.
Lebanon said 41 people had been killed in 24 hours despite the ceasefire, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.Washington informed Israel that the ceasefire with Lebanon will remain in effect despite any developments with Iran, Al Jazeera reported citing Channel 12 sources.
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark, and have gradually moved lower, alongside a pick-up in energy prices. The DAX 40 (+0.3%) is the outperforming major this morning, whilst the IBEX 35 (-1%) lags vs peers. As a reminder, the FTSE 100 is closed on account of the UK’s May Bank Holiday. The focus this morning has been on a) geopols and b) trade. (See geopolitical section above for details)
On the trade front, Trump threatened the EU with 25% tariffs on European cars/trucks, after suggesting that the bloc is not complying with the trade deal. The White House said that it would implement the tariffs through Section 232, which are typically subject to long due process/probes. The Autos sector in Europe this morning has been mildly hit following Trump’s threat, with the likes of BMW (-1.3%) and Mercedes (-1.2%) on the backfoot, whilst Stellantis (-0.1%) remains fairly resilient. The divergence is explained by BMW/Mercedes importing many of their cars into the US through European factories, whilst Stellantis has a higher industrial presence within the region.
European sectors are mixed. Media and Tech take the top two spots, whilst Autos and Media are the clear laggards. The Tech sector gains follow the strength seen in APAC trade overnight, whereby SK Hynix shares rallied 12%, as the sector reacted to continued optimism surrounding strong spending for AI data centres.
US equity futures are mixed (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.3%, RTY -0.1%), following the tentative action seen in Europe. The US docket today includes factory orders, with focus also on Fed speak via Fed’s Williams later; President Trump is also set to speak. As for key stories this morning, GameStop (-0.8%) is offering to purchase eBay (+8%) for USD 56bln, GameStop CEO says, according to WSJ. Elsewhere, Manchester United (+2.1%) secured Champions League football for next season, after defeating Liverpool on Sunday.
GameStop (GME) is offering to purchase eBay (EBAY) for USD 56bln, GameStop CEO said, according to WSJ; offer at USD 125/shr (vs USD 104.07/shr closing price on Friday). “If eBay isn’t receptive to the proposal, GameStop’s CEO said he was prepared to run a proxy fight and take the offer directly to the shareholders.”.
G10s are mixed against a relatively flat USD; the Kiwi outperforms a touch, whilst the Swiss Franc marginally lags. Ultimately, price action has been lacklustre throughout the European morning, awaiting updates on the geopolitical and trade front.
DXY remains within a 97.97 to 98.29 range, and well below its 100- and 200-DMA at 98.46 and 98.54, respectively. The Dollar has been moving incrementally higher throughout the European morning, alongside a bid in the energy complex. Focus has ultimately been on the geopolitical situation, whereby President Trump announced plans to guide neutral ships safely through the Strait, over the weekend. Unsurprisingly, this was met with resistance by the Iranians, with an official this morning spurring some mild risk off, after he said that the US would be attacked if they approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz.
EUR is essentially flat, and trades around 1.1720 within a 1.1711 to 1.1750 range; the trough is in close proximity to both its 21- and 100-DMA at 1.1711 and 1.1709, respectively. The single currency has had several Final EZ Manufacturing PMIs to digest, but they were broadly subject to only very mild revisions. Also of note was the release of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, which saw upward revisions to near-term inflation, whilst remaining unchanged on a longer-term basis. No move on this.
JPY is currently flat vs USD this morning, but did experience some volatile trade in the Asia session, amidst thin liquidity (Japan on holiday for Golden Week). A sharp dip of circa. 38 pips was seen in USD/JPY overnight, but this move mostly pared as the session progressed. Touted intervention at this time, but markets will look for confirmation. MUFG opines that whether this bout of intervention proves effective, will depend on fundamentals such as Fed-BoJ policy divergence. In its base case, analysts see two BoJ hikes this year, which would allow “a gradual move lower in USD/JPY towards the 152 levels”. USD/JPY currently trades around 157.00 (vs 155.70 trough). The potential intervention today didn’t quite lead the pair down to recent troughs of 155.48; a level not seen since late-Feb of this year.
India is reportedly mulling steps to make Dollar inflows more attractive, to help the weak INR, sources suggest; non-resident FX deposit scheme and tax reliefs on foreign government bonds are reportedly being looked into.
FIXED INCOME
A slightly bearish start to the week, though conditions are thin on account of holidays in China, Japan and the UK.
USTs down to a 110-15+ trough this morning, hit by an uptick in energy, which reverberated through on a wider airing of comments from Iran regarding the US’ activity around Hormuz. At most, USTs have been lower by 5+ ticks. Ahead, we await remarks from Fed’s Williams and then the financing estimates ahead of refunding later in the week.
From Williams, we are attentive to his view on forward guidance after several Fed members, including three voters, objected to language implying the next move would be a cut. In his most recent remarks, Williams described policy as modestly restrictive and well-positioned, adding that the Middle East conflict was already lifting inflation.
Bunds are in-fitting directionally, though in a slightly wider range and with modestly greater pressure on catch-up from the long weekend. Hit a 125.09 base with losses of 27 ticks at most, bottoming alongside the above move in USTs. No real reaction to the region’s Final Manufacturing PMIs, or the latest ECB SPF, which saw near-term inflation revised up but the longer-term view maintained.
COMMODITIES
Energy benchmarks are at highs, firmer by in excess of USD 2/bbl for WTI and Brent and over EUR 0.50/MWh for Dutch TTF.
Specifics for the space include US President Trump announcing Project Freedom, to get neutral vessels out of Hormuz. In response, Iran said US interference would be considered a ceasefire violation. Since, and prompting notable energy upside, the Iranian Major Abdullahi said any foreign forces, but particularly US, would be attacked if they approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz.
The latter update was enough to lift WTI Jun’26 and Brent Jul’26 to highs of USD 104.36/bbl and USD 110.68/bbl, respectively. Gains that weighed on the equity and fixed income complexes while providing support to the USD. Note, this entirely overshadowed more constructive updates, such as the US handing over 22 crew members from the MV Touska, an Iranian container ship.
Ahead, we have remarks from POTUS at 20:00BST. Before that, geopolitical updates around Hormuz or the Iranian proposals, which Trump said were unlikely to be accepted as Iran had “not yet paid a big enough price”, will be in focus.
Spot gold on the backfoot, as the inverse correlation between energy and the precious metal sends it to a USD 4574/oz low, with downside of near 1% on the session. Furthermore, conditions were a little thin overnight, given the absence of Japan and mainland China. The latter point is weighing on copper prices, while conditions there are thin on account of the UK holiday, and as such, there is no LME trade.
Seven OPEC+ countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188k BPD (as expected) in June 2026, according to OPEC. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to market stability, said they would continue to monitor market conditions, and are set to meet again on June 7th. As a reminder, the UAE withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1st, 2026.
ADNOC said it would award USD 55bln in projects for 2026-2028 to advance its growth strategy. Co. said the awards would reinforce its five-year capital expenditure plan and support a new phase of project execution across its value chain to meet growing global energy demand.
US President Trump said the US is producing and selling more oil right now.
TRADE/TARIFFS
European Commission said it is implementing EU-US trade agreement with standard legislative practice; it is keeping US admin fully informed throughout. Will keep options open to protect EU interests if the US takes measures inconsistent with trade deal.
US President Trump said his trip to China with President Xi will be great.
US President Trump said EU is not complying with trade deal and he will increase tariffs on EU cars and truck imports into the US; tariff will be increased to 25%. It is fully understood and agreed that, if they produce Cars and Trucks in U.S.A. Plants, there will be NO TARIFF.
Australian PM Albanese said Australia signed a joint declaration on economic security cooperation with Japan; agreement will make the countries more resilient to economic shocks and uncertainty. Australian PM noted a joint statement on critical minerals with Japan elevates critical minerals to a core pillar of economic and security relationship, and defence and security cooperation will further develop the already advanced defence relationship.
UAE confirms ongoing discussions with the US on an FX swap agreement.
EU Commission President von der Leyen said the Canada-EU partnership is strengthening.
EU Parliamentary Delegation to the US Chair Benifei said he will call for the European Commission to bring out the “trade bazooka”, as they need a mechanism that makes violating trade agreements too costly for the US.
Australian PM Albanese said Australia signed a joint declaration on economic security cooperation with Japan; agreement will make the countries more resilient to economic shocks and uncertainty. Australian PM noted a joint statement on critical minerals with Japan elevates critical minerals to a core pillar of economic and security relationship, and defence and security cooperation will further develop the already advanced defence relationship.
Japanese PM Takaichi is to meet with Australian PM Albanese to discuss energy and rare earths.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES RECAP
Some Labour MPs said it was imperative that Chancellor Rachel Reeves stayed in post to reassure markets even if there was a change of leadership. Labour MPs feared bond market chaos if Rachel Reeves was ousted alongside UK PM Starmer, according to The Sunday Times. Reeves and Starmer are expected to come under pressure if local elections go as badly as feared.
Wes Streeting had the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge within days, according to The Telegraph. He had reportedly recruited more than 81 MPs, the minimum needed to trigger a challenge. UK PM Starmer was alerted to Streeting’s plans after a Downing Street staffer accidentally texted details. Some Streeting supporters want him to strike as soon as the Friday after the local elections, according to The Telegraph.
PM Starmer loyalists on Labour’s ruling body are no longer prepared to block Andy Burnham’s return to Parliament, according to The Telegraph.
Cabinet allies of UK PM Starmer have reportedly urged Labour MPs to back the PM and avoid a leadership contest, FT reported.
Wes Streeting is ready to launch leadership challenge against Starmer, The Telegraph reported; he has recruited enough MPs to trigger a contest, with supporters calling for him to strike after local elections next week.Andy Burnham has a plan to return to Westminster ‘within weeks’, according to the Guardian, citing allies.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 52.2 vs. Exp. 52.2 (Prev. 51.6); “Over the two months since the war started, the jump in input cost inflation has been far larger than anything previously recorded…”.
German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 51.4 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 52.2)
French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 52.8 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 50.0).
Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 52.1 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 51.3).
Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 51.7 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 48.7).
Swedish Swedbank Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 57.2 (Prev. 56.3).
CENTRAL BANKS
ECB’s Kazimir said policy tightening in June is all but inevitable. Europe is increasingly likely to face a prolonged period of broad-based price increases, with higher energy prices set to spread to the rest of the economy.
ECB’s Simkus said it is clear that they have deviated from the baseline scenario.
ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2’26): Headline and core HICP inflation revised up in the near term, while remaining unchanged further out. Headline and core HICP inflation revised up in the near term, while remaining unchanged further out. Real GDP growth expectations revised down for 2026 and 2027, but unchanged thereafter. Unemployment rate expectations unchanged.
ECB’s Villeroy said they are facing an unprecedented shock. Expects France to have a deficit of 5% of GDP, should avoid a recession.
ECB’s Muller said ECB rate is at more-or-less neutral level and allows time to wait.
ECB’s Rehn said fast action is needed if second-round inflation is seen.
ECB Wunsch FT interview: “Europe ‘naive’ in clinging to old economic model”.
RBNZ Board Member Gai said supply shocks such as the Hormuz situation have raised the neutral rate.
BoK Deputy Governor said it is time to think about a rate hike, Yonhap reported; cites more resilient growth and higher inflation than expected.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Trump posted an image with the caption “I have all the cards”.
Chair of European Parliament’s trade committee said Trump’s behaviour is unacceptable; currently drafting the legislation. Latest move just shows how unreliable US is. No way to treat close partners.
US senators propose an act on the China threat to strategic interests and the US Senators’ China threat resolution is bipartisan.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
UK intends to begin negotiations to join a EUR 90bln European Union loan scheme seen as providing vital support for Ukraine, BBC reported, suggesting “which further signals the government’s desire for closer ties with the EU”. “UK PM Starmer will tell the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Armenia on Monday about the UK’s ambitions, which further signals the government’s desire for closer ties with the EU.”.
Russia’s Kremlin said Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure could lead to further oil price increases, according to TASS.
Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s Baltic Sea port of Primorsk on Sunday, setting it on fire, according to the Leningrad Governor. He said more than 60 drones were downed overnight in the region, the fire at the major oil export outlet was extinguished, and there was no oil spill.
Ukraine hit two shadow fleet tankers near Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is on a firmer footing this morning and trades just shy of the USD 80k mark. Ethereum outperforms a touch, and eyes USD 2.4k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mostly firmer, although thinner liquidity prevailed amid the absence of Japanese and Mainland Chinese markets.
ASX 200 trimmed early gains but remained rangebound ahead of the RBA decision, where a 25bps hike is expected.
KOSPI surged at the open, with chip giants leading the market higher, SK Hynix +10%, Samsung Electronics +3.5%.
Hang Seng opened higher, supported by tech strength, albeit Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect trading were closed due to the Labour Day holiday in Mainland China.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
Indian HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 54.7 vs. Exp. 55.9 (Prev. 53.9).
Australian Building Permits YoY Prel (Mar) Y/Y 9.0% (Prev. 14.0%).
Australian ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM (Apr) M/M -0.8% (Prev. -3.1%).
Australian Private House Approvals MoM Prel (Mar) M/M 12% (Prev. 0.2%).
Australian Building Permits MoM Prel (Mar) M/M -10.5% (Prev. 29.7%).
The silent shot heard but not widely reported across the bow of the US
Inbox
China has blocked US sanctions imposed on its refineries over purchasing Iranian oil, saying that Washington’s measures “shall not be complied with.”
In a statement on Saturday, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced it had issued an injunction to block US sanctions targeting five Chinese refineries.
The ministry emphasized that the US measures announced separately since last year “shall not be recognized, implemented, or complied with.”
These sanctions, it added, “improperly prohibit or restrict Chinese enterprises from conducting normal economic, trade and related activities with third countries… and violate international law and the basic norms governing international relations.”
China remains a key customer for Iranian oil, primarily through independent “teapot” refineries that rely on crude from the Islamic Republic. (Source: Press TV)
What this means is that. China has told the US to piss off. It is that simple, it will not give in to dictates of a US Treasury weaponized for continued hegemony. Now what since China will not listen.
This is a stand off situation that will now play out. It begs the question of predictive escalation given the situation the US finds itself in with the mess in Iran and elsewhere. Not withstanding the real crisis no one wants to address which will be a domestic wildfire called a Municipal Bond Crisis. This is just bubbling to the surface. When this blows up it will last for several years and no doubt will take hundreds of smaller banks in America. The reason is that banks are forced to hold such bonds to the tune of 60% of assets as tier1 for safety. The truth is that a number of these so called safe assets are worth under 20 cents on the dollar. And to make matters worse the interest is accumulated until maturity and then payable. If the underlaying asset is worthless then so is the interest which has been monetized.
In the short term it is likely the dollar and metals will rise but the internal problems of the US will not go quietly away as this is a bigger event than the bond debacle of 2008.
4 EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
COMING TO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS SHORTLY…
TIMES OF ISRAEL..
Top UK cop: Jews facing greatest ever threat; Starmer mulls banning some anti-Israel protests
Days after Golders Green stabbing, London police chief Mark Rowley seeks funding for 300 officers, some armed, to protect city’s Jewish community, cites ‘epidemic’ of antisemitism
Metropolitan Police officers stand on duty as people attend a rally organised by the Campaign Against Antisemitism, opposite Downing Street in central London on April 30, 2026, following the stabbing of two Jewish men the day before in the Golders Green neighbourhood of north London. (Photo by CARLOS JASSO / AFP)
The UK’s top police officer said in an interview published Saturday that British Jews are facing their greatest ever threat, with social media fueling an “epidemic” of antisemitism, and called for 300 armed officers to be deployed to protect the Jewish community of north London.
“If you overlay three things now — hate crime, terrorism and hostile state activity — you add all that together, that combined effect with that building of ideology online, that is really dangerous and troubling,” said Mark Rowley, head of London’s Metropolitan Police.
“And Jewish communities feel that and you can see that in how they talk, how it’s making them change their lives. That’s an appalling state of affairs,” he said.Promoted: Hadassah’s Underground HospitalKeep Watching
He told The Times that British Jews are on the “hate” list of every racist and extremist group.
“Whether you’re extreme left, whether you’re an Islamist terrorist, whether you’re a right-wing terrorist, and some hostile states as well, now with some sort of Iranian-related threats. There’s a sort of ghastly Venn diagram that they’re at the middle of,” he says.
Asked if the British Jewish community faces its greatest threat, Rowley responds: “That has to be true.”
The comments came after the police said Friday that it had charged 45-year-old Essa Suleiman with attempted murder following an antisemitic terror attack during which two Jewish men were stabbed on Wednesday.
Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, center, Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mark Rowley, right, and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, 2nd left, speak with members of the Jewish community during a visit to Golders Green, north west London, Thursday, April 30, 2026, following an attack on Wednesday in which two men were stabbed. (Stefan Rousseau/Pool via AP)
Suleiman has been charged with two counts of attempted murder and one count of possession of a bladed article in a public place in relation to the attack, police said.
The Somalia-born British citizen is suspected of stabbing Shloime Rand, 34, and Moshe Shine, 76, in the attack in the heavily Jewish neighborhood of Golders Green, in north London.
Since then, Britain has raised its national terrorism threat level to “severe,” signaling that a terrorist attack is considered highly likely.
Rowley said he has requested urgent government funding to recruit 300 officers to protect the Jewish community. He said he wants a dedicated group of neighborhood officers and firearms officers to be permanently stationed in northwest London, calling it “essential.”
Banning anti-Israel rallies
Also Saturday, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in an interview that banning some pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel marches could be justified, especially when they call for the intifada to spread, a term widely seen as calling for violence against Jews.
Labour leader Starmer is under pressure to act. Wednesday’s stabbing was the most serious and violent in a spate of recent attacks aimed at Jews in London, and comes less than a year after a deadly attack at a synagogue in Manchester.
Pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel protesters take part in a demonstration on Al Quds Day, in London, April 5, 2024 (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
Starmer visited the scene of the attacks and a Jewish volunteer ambulance service on Thursday and was booed by some locals, who accused him of not doing enough to protect them.
They also denounced pro-Palestinian activists holding marches in British cities. Pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel marches have become a regular feature in London since the October 2023 attack by Hamas invasion and massacre in southern Israel that triggered the Gaza war. Critics say the demonstrations have generated hostility and become a focus for antisemitism.
The prime minister, a former human rights lawyer and chief public prosecutor whose wife is Jewish, said many Jewish people had told them they were affected by “the repeat nature” of the protests.
“I’m a big defender of freedom of expression, peaceful protests,” he told the BBC in the interview broadcast Saturday, adding that he was not denying there were “very strong legitimate views about the Middle East, about Gaza.”
“But when there are chants like ‘globalize the intifada’, that’s completely off limits. Clearly, there should be tougher action in relation to that.”
The intifada refers to the Palestinian uprisings against Israel in 1987-1993 and the early 2000s, with the Second Intifada featuring waves of suicide bombings and other deadly shooting and stabbing attacks against Israeli civilians.
Illustrative: Anti-Israel protesters call for an intifada at a protest in New York City, September 17, 2021. (Luke Tress/Flash90)
Starmer said he wanted to police the language used on marches more strongly and that there were “instances” when some protests should be stopped altogether.
Discussions had been taking place with the police for some time about what further action could be taken, he added.
Asked if the tougher response should focus on chants and banners, or whether the protests should be stopped altogether, Starmer said: “I think certainly the first, and I think there are instances for the latter.”
“I think it’s time to look across the board at protests and the cumulative effect,” he said, adding that the government needed to look at what further powers it could take.
In December last year, police in London and the northwest city of Manchester said they would arrest anyone chanting “globalize the intifada”.
In October 2025, a terrorist drove his car into people gathered outside a Manchester synagogue on Yom Kippur and stabbed one person to death. Another person died during the attack after being inadvertently shot by police.
On Thursday, the UK increased its security alert level to “severe” — the second highest — in part because of the attack in Golders Green, as well as the threat from Islamist extremism and the far-right.
The police have also said they would look closely at all calls about future protests.
Not fit to lead any political party
The police response to Wednesday’s stabbing also fuelled controversy with the leader of the left-populist Green Party, which has made major gains in recent months, accusing police of brutality in how officers apprehended Suleiman.
Green Party leader Zach Polanski retweeted, without comment, a post on X alleging that officers were “repeatedly and violently kicking a mentally ill man in the head” when he was already incapacitated after being tased.
The accusation, which Polanski later withdrew and apologized for, sparked angry retorts from Starmer and Rowley.
Starmer said Polanski was “not fit to lead any political party” and said officers acted correctly, fearing the stabber could have been carrying explosives.
Green Party leader Zack Polanski (C) and former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn (bottom L) join protesters holding placards and waving flags as they take part in a march against the far right, organised by the Together Alliance, in central London on March 28, 2026. (Photo by Henry Nicholls / AFP)
“I don’t know what was going through the mind of those officers, but if I were there, I’d be thinking: ‘He’s going to detonate something. He’s going to blow me up and everybody around here.’ And in those circumstances, I think you can quite see why what could have gone through their mind is: ‘We need to do whatever we can to disable this guy,’” Starmer told the BBC.
“You have to make a decision in that split moment according to the situation as you understand it to be. And for politicians to wade in, as Zack Polanski did, is disgraceful. He’s not fit to lead any political party,” Starmer said.
Starmer’s comments came after Rowley wrote a letter to Polanski, saying that his unfounded claims could have a “chilling effect” on policing.
Polanski, who is Jewish, apologized on Friday, saying that: “Everyone in leadership has a responsibility for lowering the temperature at a time of such tension, and I apologise for sharing a tweet in haste.”
Ahead of local elections next week, Polanski’s party has been embroiled in a string of antisemitic scandals.
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These people have never been in a life-or-death situation like the arresting officers
One would think that even when the police successfully detain a suspect who was alleged to have been conducting a marauding knife attack, the professional activists would have a day off.
But you would be wrong. Amid all the ‘Don’t Look Back in Anger’ cliché bingo, voices of criticism were heard. Among them, the blue-tick career race-baiter Shola Mos-Shogbamimu. She was quick to take to X following yesterday’s attack on the Jewish community in Golders Green, north London. The 45 year-old suspect, a British national of Somali origin, had reportedly stabbed two Jewish men at random. The suspect – depressingly, inevitably – had previously been referred to the Government’s counter radicalisation programme, Prevent.
Shola Mos-Shogbamimu criticised police officers who are shown kicking the suspect in the head while he is on the ground. She opined:
Contemptible abuse of police power. Why kick him in the head several times when he’s already Tasered and in your control? Should he not be alive to be brought to justice in a court of law for stabbing two Jews??!! Disgusting.
Also, Green Party leader Zack Polanski, still playing at politics, was quick to condemn the actions of the arresting officers, using a retweet to maintain that:
Essentially his (Commissioner Mark Rowley’s) officers were reportedly and violently kicking a mentally ill man in the head when he was already incapacitated by taser.
What Shola, Zack and other commentators do not understand – because they have never been in a life-or-death situation – is that force is not judged by how it looks in a six-second clip. It is judged by necessity in the moment. These keyboard warriors have no idea what it’s like to face immediate and possibly lethal violence armed with often nothing more than some irritant spray and a stick. Your priority is to keep members of the public safe, followed by yourselves as much as possible.
These officers would have had no idea in such a fast moving situation whether the suspect was acting alone or as part of a cell. He needed to be neutralised as soon as possible in order to keep people safe. He wasn’t showing his hands; he was still holding a bloodied weapon that he had just used to attack Jewish members of the public; he had been moving rapidly towards them, and they would have had no idea if he was wearing an explosive vest (wearing a coat on a warm day is never a good sign).
Policing is not theatre. It is not performed for social media approval. It is messy, fast and often brutal. Because the people officers deal with are messy, fast and often brutal. A man armed with a knife who has already stabbed two people, who refuses repeated commands to disarm and who continues to pose a threat even after being tasered, is not “under control”. He is an active danger until the weapon is removed. That is the reality, no matter how uncomfortable it makes Left-leaning commentators feel.
The idea that officers should politely wait or somehow apply ‘gentler’ tactics while a suspect still has the capacity to kill is not just naïve in the extreme, it is dangerous. It puts officers’ lives at risk. It puts the public at risk. And it reveals a complete detachment from reality (I am reminded of the occasion when then Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, declared that Islamic State murderer Mohammed ‘Jihadi John’ Emwazi should have been arrested in war-torn Syria rather than killed.)
This is the gap at the heart of modern public debate on policing. One side deals in real-world consequences. The other deals in optics. The officers in Golders Green had seconds to act. Not minutes. Not the luxury of hindsight, slow-motion replays or viral commentary. Seconds. In those seconds they made unquestionably the right decision: remove the threat as quickly as possible, by whatever means necessary short of lethal force. And that point matters. Because the same voices now condemning ‘excessive force’ would be the first to demand answers if those officers had hesitated and others had been stabbed.
There is also an uncomfortable truth that many would rather avoid: this attack was not just violent, it was targeted. Two visibly Jewish men were attacked in broad daylight in a part of London with a large Jewish community. That context matters. It should matter. It’s part of an ever growing pattern of antisemitic attacks carried out by people holding extreme Islamist ideologies.
Yet instead of sustained outrage about antisemitic violence, the conversation was almost immediately derailed, redirected toward the conduct of the officers who stopped it. That inversion of priorities is telling.
It reflects a culture where the instinct is no longer to back those who confront violence but to scrutinise them first, and often most harshly. Where the benefit of the doubt is extended to offenders, those enforcing the law are expected to meet an impossible standard of perfection under extreme pressure – often from their own senior management.
And it is precisely this culture that erodes effective policing. If every split-second decision is second guessed by people with no operational understanding, officers will become more hesitant. More risk-averse. Less pro-active. That is not compassion. It is a recipe for more victims.
None of this means police should be beyond scrutiny. Of course they shouldn’t be. But scrutiny requires context. It requires full evidence. It requires intellectual honesty. A selectively edited clip on social media is not scrutiny. It is propaganda. That is the real issue here.
Not just one commentator getting it wrong, but an entire ecosystem that rewards outrage over accuracy, speed over truth and narrative over fact. The Metropolitan Police, to their credit, did something increasingly necessary: they put out the full body-worn footage. They showed the public what actually happened. And when people saw the complete picture, the narrative collapsed. Because reality is stubborn like that.
In the end, strip away the noise and the incentives of social media and the situation becomes very simple. A violent attacker stabbed two innocent men. Two unarmed officers confronted him. They stopped him. They went home alive, and so did everyone else.
That is not a scandal. That is policing working exactly as it should.
END
UK
NICE WAY TO KILL THE COUNTRY;
UK Schools Pushing Books On Kids Telling Them “There’s Plenty Of Room” For Small Boat Migrants
British kids as young as five are now being read picture books that paint small boat crossings in glowing terms and urge them to open the door to unlimited migration.
While record numbers of illegal arrivals strain housing, schools and public services, left-wing charities are using taxpayer-backed programmes to turn classrooms into recruitment centres for open borders ideology.
More than 1,100 schools and nurseries across the UK have signed up to the Schools of Sanctuary programme, run by the City of Sanctuary network. The scheme requires schools to complete a “rigorous” award process to prove they are “working collaboratively to strengthen community approaches to welcoming refugee children and families.” Once awarded, they pay a minimum donation of £75 to £300.
As part of the programme, schools are given a suggested reading list packed with pro-migrant messaging. One book, Kind by Alison Green, illustrated by renowned children’s illustrators such as Quentin Blake and Axel Scheffler, tells children: “Sometimes people have lived through very hard times. They’ve had to leave their homes and their countries because of danger. They are brave and amazing and have extraordinary stories to tell.”
It continues: “Sometimes people say there’s no room for anyone more. But maybe you can say ‘There’s plenty of room! Come on in!’ After all, if you don’t let people in, you’ll never know what you’re missing.”
Yeah, come on in! In fact, come on in and live in a hotel in a nice green village, all at taxpayer expense!
The book features a cartoon lion in a crowded boat with other animals and encourages pupils to share toys, draw pictures together and even learn words from a foreign child’s language.
Another title, Everybody’s Welcome by Patricia Hegarty, states plainly: “Everybody’s welcome, no matter who they are, wherever they may come from, whether near or far.”
No matter who they are. Never a truer word spoken.
The classic Elmer and the Hippos is also recommended. In it, elephants initially resent hippos arriving at their river because “there isn’t enough room for them and us.” By the end, the two groups work together and become friends after clearing a blockage.
Schools are also encouraged to hold an annual “Day of Welcome” in June, complete with non-uniform days to raise funds for the scheme or local migrant-support groups. Secondary pupils can even meet real-life refugees promoted by the charity.
Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott has demanded the books be withdrawn “immediately.” She told the Daily Mail: “Classrooms should be places of learning not promoting political ideology, schools have a very clear duty to stay out of politics.”
Trott added: “Portraying the arrival of small boats as a positive thing in books for children as young as five is indoctrination, this is an illegal practice. This organisation has already made clear its aim is to turn pupils into ‘ethically informed change makers’ and that crosses a very clear line.”
She concluded: “We must get a grip on these third party resources infiltrating our schools and peddling political agendas to young children.”
The City of Sanctuary UK defended the materials, saying it “works with schools to support a culture of welcome, inclusion and understanding for all members of the community.” It added: “Our suggested educational resources, including book recommendations, are designed to help children develop empathy, critical thinking, and awareness of the experiences of others.”
A Pattern of School Indoctrination
This is not an isolated incident. It fits a clear pattern of using British schools to enforce mass-migration acceptance while cracking down on any pushback.
The message is relentless: British children must be conditioned to accept endless migration, share what little they have, and never question whether “there’s plenty of room.”
After all, we’re reliably told to expect the arrival of another 7 MILLION migrants in the coming years:
Parents and politicians are right to push back. Schools exist to educate, not to manufacture “ethically informed change makers” for the open-borders lobby. Until third-party political materials are banned from the curriculum and real scrutiny is applied to groups like City of Sanctuary, Britain’s classrooms will continue serving as recruitment tools for the very policies destroying community cohesion and national identity.
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END
NORWAY
REMIX
Syrian Gets Just Six Months In Jail For Raping 13-Year-Old Girl After Court Cites His Low IQ
A 21-year-old Syrian man convicted of raping a 13-year-old Norwegian girl in a bike shed will serve just six months in prison after a court cited his low IQ, limited development, and a recent change in Norwegian sentencing law.
Abdelmonem Abdelrazak Al-Yousef was found guilty by Nord-Troms and Senja District Court on March 31 in relation to the rape that occurred during the night of Sept. 7, 2024, near the Harbour Terminal in Tromso.
As reported by Norwegian news outlet Document, the teen victim had left her home during the night and gone into the city center. At the Harbour Terminal, she encountered Al-Yousef and another man. The court said there was little conversation because the defendant spoke only Arabic.
The court found that Al-Yousef first assaulted the girl on a bench near the Edge Hotel before the abuse continued in a covered bicycle parking area belonging to the Harbour Terminal. He also attempted vaginal intercourse, but the judgment said he did not succeed because the victim did not want to.
Al-Yousef, who arrived in Norway from Syria in 2023, initially denied ever meeting the girl and denied being the person seen in surveillance images. He later admitted meeting and kissing her, but continued to deny sexual activity or entering the bicycle area.
Police found semen on the asphalt at the scene, and DNA testing linked it to Al-Yousef. The court rejected his defense, noting it was entirely lacking in credibility.
The court also found that Al-Yousef should have understood the girl was underage. The victim had said she was born in 2008, while a witness said she appeared visibly young and childlike. In a police interview, Al-Yousef himself said she looked small and around the same age as his younger sister, who was born in 2010.
However, the sentence was reduced after forensic psychiatric experts found that he had a mild intellectual disability. One assessment estimated his IQ at 41, although a later report put it in the range of 64 to 75.
The court treated his condition as a mitigating factor and said that, despite being 19 years and 8 months old at the time of the offense, his developmental level could be considered comparable to that of the 13-year-old victim.
The judgment, cited by Utenfilter, said, “In mitigation, the court finds that it must be emphasized that the defendant is most likely no further along in development than the victim, and that he appears to have a reduced understanding of reality.”
The case was also affected by a Norwegian legal change that entered into force last July, when the minimum sentence for rape of children under 14 was repealed. Previously, such cases carried a minimum sentence of three years in prison.
The court described the abuse as degrading and clearly exploitative, noting that it took place outdoors in public after the defendant and victim had met only a short time earlier. It nevertheless set a starting point of two years in prison before reducing the effective sentence.
After deductions for Al-Yousef’s low level of development and the age of the case, one year and six months of the sentence was made conditional with a three-year probation period. As a result, he will serve six months in prison.
The victim was awarded 280,000 Norwegian kroner (€25,700) in compensation for damages. The court said that although the girl had reportedly not described the incident as especially burdensome, she was young and such events could affect her later in life.
A new poll from the presitigous ifop polling firm shows that a large majority of French citizens believe in a core tenent of the Great Replacement.
Specifically, 60 percent of French people told ifop they believe we are witnessing “a replacement of the French population by non-European populations, mainly from the African continent.”
The poll also found that 66 percent see it as a bad development, compared to 9 percent who see it as a good thing.
Two weeks ago, Marion Maréchal, leader of Identité Libertés, posted to X: “60% of French people think that we are witnessing ‘a replacement of the French population by non-European populations mainly from Africa’ according to @IfopOpinion. To our greatest misfortune, our rulers are among the 40%.”
Analyst Paul Cébille, from the Hexagone Observatory, posted the same line.
According to the data from IFOP, 7 percent are undecided.
According to the French Directorate General for Foreigners (DGEF), valid French residence permits in 2025 hit an unprecedented level of 4.5 million, an increase of approximately 3 percent, driven primarily by multi-year permits and long-term resident cards, writes Le Journal du Dimanche.
For 2025, one in three permits was issued for family reasons (1.5 million), while one in five was an automatic renewal. New permits also increased to 384,000, a jump of 11 percent, which was partly driven by a 65 percent increase in admissions for humanitarian reasons.
Foreigners with legal status now represent 8.1 percent of France’s adult population, with a high concentration of nationalities from the Maghreb. At the same time, regularizations have declined (-10%, to 28,610), while deportations have increased sharply (+15.7%, to 24,985), reaching their highest level in a decade, notes JDD.
Maréchal more recently posted a telling video of the number of illegals coming to the EU, blasting French leaders for their continuous stance of “above all, let’s do nothing!”
L’immigration illégale dans l’UE de 2008 à 2024. Chaque point représente 100 clandestins. Réaction des gouvernements français successifs en voyant cela : « surtout ne faisons rien ! ». pic.twitter.com/0G78rKLeIy
Maréchal has also been a vocal critic of Spain’s Socialist PM Pedro Sánchez for his “irresponsible regularization of 500,000 undocumented immigrants,” a figure that some say is likely to skyrocket to over 1.5 million.
“Closing Schengen at the Spanish border is a vital act to deter and protect the French and Europeans,” she wrote. The National Rally’s Jordan Bardella has also sounded the alarm over what many consider an immediate threat to France. Bardella has made it clear that he feels the EU must alter current rules to disallow free movement within Schengen for those holding a resident permit.
Europe Will Lose Billions In Revenue If US Military Bases Shut Down
Monday, May 04, 2026 – 05:45 AM
Europe is in far greater economic trouble that most people realize. In an April 2026 report by the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), it was reveled that the UK’s GDP per capita is lower than all 50 U.S. states, including the poorest, Mississippi. While the majority of Britons mistakenly believe the UK is as wealthy or wealthier than the US, data shows the UK’s average income lags behind the lowest-performing US states, highlighting a significant economic gap.
The quiet decline of the once mighty British Empire right under the nose of the general populace is just one of many examples of Europe not understanding their own precarious economic circumstances.
Far-left governments on the other side of the Atlantic have openly sought to sabotage conservative political movements, imposing authoritarian lawfare and mass censorship in order to prevent losing their grip on power. The globalist leadership in these countries has designated the Trump Administration and US nationalist groups as a “bad influence” on their own citizens.
The key conflict is about forced third world immigration and forced multiculturalism. Leftist politicians desperately want this process to continue, but the US is enforcing a migrant reversal, which makes Europeans wonder why their governments are not doing the same? The juxtaposition is embarrassing and makes the liberal agenda more difficult.
Because of this snub against the multicultural project, the Trump Administration’s scrutiny of European censorship, tariff’s against nations that had their own tariffs on US goods and Trump’s demand that NATO countries pay their fair share in defense, the elitists across the pond have turned sour on their relationship with America.
They have been noticeably interested in undermining US operations in the Gulf against Iran, denying the US access to airspace and making things unnecessarily complicated. One can theorize the deeper motives behind this decision (the presence of 50 million Muslims in Europe, many of them migrants, might explain the apprehension to do anything that might be seen as European hostility to Iran), but it’s clear that the behavior of some EU leaders has grown increasingly petty.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently sparked intense controversy by stating that the U.S. is being “humiliated” by Iran and lacks a clear strategy in the conflict, calling the situation “ill-considered”. It’s difficult to understand this assertion without knowing Merz’s definition of “humiliation”.
With the majority of Iran’s leadership dead or incapacitated, at least half of their missile stock destroyed and Trump’s reverse blockade crushing the Iranian economy within just a couple weeks ($1 US dollar is currently equal to around 1.8 million Rial), one has to wonder what success looks like to the Germans (perhaps an old-school blitzkrieg would impress them more).
It doesn’t really matter, because Merz’s comments were met with a sharp response from the Trump Admin, and now it is likely that US bases in the country will soon be shut down. Upon hearing this news, Merz suddenly changed his tune and praised the US partnership with Germany:
“The United States is and will remain Germany‘s most important partner in the North Atlantic Alliance. We share a common goal: Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons…”
The United States is and will remain Germany‘s most important partner in the North Atlantic Alliance. We share a common goal: Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.— Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (@bundeskanzler) May 3, 2026
That’s an incredible attitude adjustment in the span of only 24 hours. At the same time, a NATO spokesperson scrambled to rekindle diplomatic relations, claiming that European leaders were trying to understand the US decision to pull troops, as if the reasons were not blatantly clear already.
Why is Merz abruptly shifting his rhetoric? Probably because he just realized the benefits Germany draws from the US military bases in the region; benefits which Germany has enjoyed for decades.
Citizens in Italy, Spain and Germany are expressing concerns that the removal of US bases will cost local and national economies dearly. With approximately 36,400 active-duty US personnel (as of late 2025) across major sites like Ramstein Air Base and facilities in Bavaria, the US military functions as a major economic engine, especially in rural and smaller urban areas.
Germany rakes in around $4.1 billion annually through US spending around military bases. US operations support more than 10,000 direct German jobs (civilian employees at bases) and an estimated 70,000 indirect jobs (in construction, services, and supply chains). The US also invests billions annually in base operations, expansion, and modernization. The removal of troops would squeeze these already struggling rural communities.
President Donald Trump’s plan to withdraw at least 5,000 US troops from Germany has raised concerns among residents living near Ramstein Air Base. pic.twitter.com/hllQNYiuYg— DW News (@dwnews) May 3, 2026
Italy collects around $312 million every year in base generated revenues in Naples alone, and at least 5000 direct jobs are created.
In Spain, $713 million is pumped into local economies annually through US bases, plus around 8000 jobs for Spanish military staff and civilian workers.
U.S. defense spending directly supporting European security is substantial, with the U.S. maintaining a nearly $1 trillion global defense budget. While direct on-ground operational costs were previously estimated around $30–$36 billion annually in 2025. This might not sound like much, but the effects are substantial in poorer rural areas.
The economic advantages of the US presence go far beyond direct spending. US military security allows Europe to spend minimal on defense, which means they have far more cash to spend on social welfare programs like universal healthcare. All of these programs go away with a US exit from NATO.
Beyond the obvious loss of defense capability that comes with a US exit from NATO, the economic factor should not be overlooked.
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /USA/IRAN
ISRAEL USA IRAN/SATURDAY
Live Updates: Fighting with US ‘likely’ to resume after rejection of Iranian offer to open Hormuz, official says
IDF issues evacuation warnings for several southern Lebanese towns and villages • US says Aoun-Netanyahu meeting could help restore Lebanese control over Hezbollah
Israeli soldiers are seen along the Israeli border with Lebanon amid the ongoing war, April 10, 2026.(photo credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
May 2, 4:01 PM
Fighting with US ‘likely’ to resume after Trump rejection, Iranian official says
A senior Iranian official said that fighting with the US was “likely” to resume after US President Donald Trump said he was dissatisfied with Tehran’s new proposal, Iranian media reported on Saturday.
Iran’s Fars news agency cited Mohammad Jafar Asadi, a senior figure in the Iranian military’s central command, as saying that “a renewed conflict between Iran and the United States is likely.”
This comes after Reuters reported that an Iranian proposal rejected by US President Donald Trump would open shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and end the US blockade of Iran while leaving talks on Iran’s nuclear program for later, a senior Iranian official said on Saturday.
END
IRAN/ISRAEL USA/SATURDAY
Iranian official says conflict with US ‘likely’ to restart after Trump rejects proposal
Trump said on Friday that he was “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal, without detailing which elements he opposes, while the White House refused to comment on the state of the negotiations.
THE ‘USS Abraham Lincoln’ conducts US blockade operations related to the Strait of Hormuz, last month.(photo credit: Handout Photo by the US Navy via Getty Images)ByREUTERS, CORINNE BAUMMAY 2, 2026 12:55Updated: MAY 2, 2026 15:46
A senior Iranian official said that fighting with the US was “likely” to resume after US President Donald Trump said he was dissatisfied with Tehran’s new proposal, Iranian media reported on Saturday.
Iran’s Fars news agency cited Mohammad Jafar Asadi, a senior figure in the Iranian military’s central command, as saying that “a renewed conflict between Iran and the United States is likely.”
This comes after Reuters reported that an Iranian proposal rejected by US President Donald Trump would open shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and end the US blockade of Iran while leaving talks on Iran’s nuclear program for later, a senior Iranian official said on Saturday.
Four weeks since the United States and Israel suspended their bombing campaign against Iran, no deal has been reached to end a war that has caused the biggest disruption ever to global energy supplies. Iran has been blocking nearly all shipping from the Gulf apart from its own for more than two months. Last month, the US imposed its own blockade of ships from Iranian ports.
Trump said on Friday that he was “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal, without detailing which elements he opposes.
US President Donald Trump departs the White House in Washington, DC, US, May 1, 2026. (credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)
“They’re asking for things that I can’t agree to,” he told reporters at the White House.
Washington has repeatedly said it will not end the war without a deal that prevents Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon, the primary aim Trump cited when he launched the strikes in February in the midst of nuclear talks. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful.
Tehran believes the proposal was a significant shift to facilitate an agreement
Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential diplomacy, the senior Iranian official said Tehran believed its latest proposal to shelve nuclear talks for a later stage was a significant shift aimed at facilitating an agreement.
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Under the proposal, the war would end with a guarantee that Israel and the United States would not attack again. Iran would open the Strait, and the United States would lift its blockade.
Future talks would then be held on curbs to Iran’s nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions, with Iran demanding Washington recognize its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, even if it agrees to suspend it.
“Under this framework, negotiations over the more complicated nuclear issue have been moved to the final stage to create a more conducive atmosphere,” the official said.
Reuters and other news organizations already reported over the past week that Tehran was proposing to reopen the strait before nuclear issues were resolved; the official confirmed that this new timeline had now been spelled out in a formal proposal conveyed to the United States through mediators.
END
IRAN/ISRAEL/USA/SUNDAY
Trump Must Choose ‘Impossible’ War Or ‘Bad Deal’ With Iran: IRGC Message To US
Sunday, May 03, 2026 – 09:55 AM
Iran is telling Washington that the ball is in its court as President Trump has affirmed over the weekend that he is reviewing the latest peace deal submitted via Pakistani mediators. Tehran is further saying the US is going from worse to worse as it must now choose between an “impossible” military operation or a “bad” deal.
The intelligence unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has newly stated that “Trump must choose between an impossible military operation or a bad deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran,”according to Al Jazeera referencing the official statement. The provocative words framing the dilemma came soon on the heels of the following Saturday Truth Social post from Trump:
As for the IRGC statement about an “impossible” miliary operation, it further indicated that Tehran sent the US military a deadline to end its blockade of Iranian ports. It highlighted that Europe, China and Russia are are increasingly taking a more critical toward Washington’s war.
“The room for US decision-making has narrowed,” the IRGC intelligence unit sad additionally, emphasizing “there is only one way to read this.”
At the moment, the two-week ceasefire which was announced on April 8 through Pakistani mediation has been unilaterally extended by Trump, to now be indefinite. On Friday as the conflict reached 60-days, President Trump submitted a formal letter to Congress stressing Operation Epic Fury had already been ‘terminated’ due to the ceasefire.
The White House is arguing that this loophole – or the fact that there’s currently no exchanges of fire between the US and Iranian sides – means that required Congressional review and authorization of use of American troops is essentially voided. In the meantime gas prices at the pump for Americans are steadily rising. The below is the full IRGC statement to the US side:
China, Russia, Europe shift tone against Washington Trump’s passive letter to Congress
Acceptance of Iran’s negotiating terms
The current Iran-submitted plan now being reviewed at the White House reportedly contains 14 points. A Russian correspondent has said that “Iran is seeking a decisive and permanent end to the conflict with the US, rather than a previously proposed two-month ceasefire” and that it seems a one-month window to end all hostilities.
“The plan includes a demand to resolve all issues and end the war within 30 days,” said RT correspondent Saman Kojouri, adding that “”he space for compromise between Tehran and Washington is narrowing.” Just by the close of last week Trump said he was ‘not satisfied’ with what he had seen so far.
END
ISRAEL/USA/IRAN SUNDAY
Large Cargo Ship Near Hormuz Reports Being Attacked, In First Escalation Since April 22
Sunday, May 03, 2026 – 01:56 PM
A large cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz has reported being attacked by multiple small craft, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said Sunday, marking at least two dozen attacks in and around the strait since the Iran war began.
All crew on the unidentified northbound carrier, which could be the Pasargad 11 General Cargo Ship with a destination of Dubai after it reversed…
… were safe after the attack off Sirik, Iran, east of the strait, the monitor said. Iranian officials have asserted that they control the strait and that ships not affiliated with the United States or Israel can pass if they pay a toll.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, the first reported in the area since April 22, when a cargo ship reported being fired upon, the monitor said. The threat level in the area remains critical. Tehran effectively closed the strait by attacking and threatening ships.
Iranian patrol boats, some powered only by twin outboard motors, are small, nimble and hard to detect and have attacked several ships. President Donald Trump last month ordered the U.S. military to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines in the strait.
Separately, Iran’s FARS news reported that several vessel captains in the Ras Al Khaimah area of the UAE had been instructed via VHF radio to vacate their anchorages. However, media reports indicate that it was business as usual 5 hours after the Iranian warning, with ship positions largely unchanged.
IRGC Says It Struck US Navy Ship, US Officials Deny
Iran is claiming to have attacked and struck a US Navy vessel, announcing that it stopped US warships from entering the Strait of Hormuz “with a firm and swift warning” and noting that “additional news will be announced later” – a statement by state Tasnim News Agency said. Soon after, Fars news agency said that two missiles hit a US navy vessel near Jask island after it ignored warnings from the IRGC to halt. Jerusalem Post also picked up on the statement, writing:
The ship reportedly turned back after being hit. The report further noted that the missiles had been launched after the US “violated security protocols for transit and navigation near Jask with the intent to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”
However, soon after Axios stated that a “senior US official denies a US ship was hit by Iranian missiles.” CENTCOM soon after said that no US navy ships have been struck adding that US forces are supporting Project Freedom and enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports.
It is the latest claimed major incident soon on the heels of President Trump the night prior announcing “Project Freedom” to “guide” stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.
But as we also noted, WSJ explained that Project Freedom “is a process through which countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations can coordinate moving traffic through the Strait, according to a senior U.S. official. It doesn’t currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the strait, the official said.” So a lot of confusion remains. UAE meanwhile chimes in with some verification of a strike on LNG tanker:
UAE SAYS ADNOC VESSEL HIT BY TWO IRAN DONRES IN HORMUZ
UAE CONDEMNS TARGETING OF ADNOC VESSEL BY DRONES IN HORMUZ
LIVE IN THE STRAIT: The U.S. just launched “Project Freedom” to escort neutral commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but the sanctioned tanker NOOH GAS (IMO 9034690) is currently attempting transit.
Windward Multi-Source Intelligence is tracking NOOH GAS in real-time as it transits eastbound today, May 4.
In a high-stakes move to evade the concurrent U.S. blockade, the vessel is transiting south of Larak Island skipping the standard Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) lanes. This is classic evasive behavior from a sanctioned dark fleet tanker trying to dodge interdiction, not an innocent vessel seeking protection.
Despite the deterrent presence of U.S. naval assets, our assessment for a Project Freedom escort is highly unlikely based on the vessel’s profile:
The vessel is OFAC-designated under the Iran sanctions program (EO 13902).
It has conducted 13 dark activity events since June 2025 and utilized 18 name changes to mask its identity.
It is currently laden with 129.9K barrels of LPG/Butane while operating with dual-identity indicators.
As the situation unfolds, the Strait is a two-track corridor: protected passage for neutral trade and a high-risk interdiction zone for the dark fleet.
Trump had also said in his Monday Truth Social statement that he is “fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all.”
Iranian Tanker Crew Swap in Pakistan
Some kind of ‘good faith’ swap is in the works, per Al Jazeera:
The crew members of an Iranian ship that was seized by the United States after it “failed to comply” with the US blockade on Iranian ports have been transferred to Pakistan for repatriation, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said.
“As a confidence-building measure by the United States of America, twenty-two crew members held aboard the seized Iranian container ship, ‘MV Touska’, have been evacuated to Pakistan,” the ministry said in a statement on Monday.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry is facilitating their return, after a couple weeks ago the US Navy seized it and characterized the capture of the merchant ship part of the spoils of war.
CNN had reported at the time that “US Central Command (CENTCOM) says the guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance warned the Touska repeatedly over a six-hour period, during which time the container ship was steaming in the Arabian Sea toward Bandar Abbas, Iran.” It was among the earliest direct actions by the US Navy after the US declared a blockade on all Iranian ports.
Iran Warns US It Will Attack
A fresh escalatory warning and rhetoric out of Iran’s military on Monday: US forces will be attacked if they enter the strait, as well as any commercial ship or oil tanker not willingly coordinating their movements with Iran ahead of time. That’s according to Ali Abdollahi, the head of the Iranian military’s unified command, and as cited in Al Jazeera:
“We warn that any foreign armed forces, especially the aggressive US army, will be attacked if they intend to approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz,” the statement said.
All of this means that what Trump touted as an act of “goodwill” has the obvious potential to become a dangerous flashpoint. Some pundits have raised the possibility of a new Gulf of Tonkin incident.
The IRGC reportedly carried out a missile strike on two ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz at night.
The IRGC Navy reports that the ships turned off their transponders and were operating in the interests of the US Navy. pic.twitter.com/64Ez5bFOpR
The Iranian military is claiming it has prevented a US Navy destroyer from entering the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian state media reports that the public relations arm of the army says: “With a firm and swift warning from the Islamic Republic Navy, the entry of American and Zionist enemy destroyers into the Strait of Hormuz was prevented.”
But it is hard to precisely confirm any of this, also as the Pentagon is mum and not expected to affirm any of Iran’s claimed successes in stopping US naval movement in regional waters.
Iran’s ‘Control Zone’
Iran has “redefined the control zone” in Strait of Hormuz, stretching from south of Mount Mobarak in Iran to south of UAE’s Fujairah, and from west of Qeshm Island in Iran to Umm al-Quwain in the UAE, according to Tasnim.
A statement from Iranian State TV gives Iran’s perspective on Trump’s new Project Freedom, as it insists the strait is “under the control of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran”.
Again, all of this directly contradicts Washington’s stance, and the two sides are once again headed toward escalation amid zero sum contrary positions with apparent willingness to use force. As a reminder, Trump had on Sunday described that “For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.”
Some More Regional Developments
via Al Jazeera
Two missiles hit a US navy vessel near Jask in the Strait of Hormuz after it ignored warnings from the Revolutionary Guard to halt, state media quote the IRGC as saying.
The reported attack comes after US President Donald Trump announced a naval mission, dubbed Project Freedom, to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry says it is assessing a response from Washington to its latest 14-point proposal to end the war. Trump had called Tehran’s proposal “unacceptable”.
Israel continues to bombard Lebanon, wounding five medics, and has expanded its area of control in Gaza by announcing a so-called “Orange Line”.
end
late Monday morning!!
Pentagon Hails Two US Merchant Ships Safely Exiting Strait, As Iran Vows Attack On US Navy Entering Hormuz
by Tyler Durden
Monday, May 04, 2026 – 08:25 AM
Summary
CENTCOM hails two US merchant ships exiting Hormuz Strait safely in “first step”.
Iran insists Hormuz is under its control & says it targeted & struck a US Navy vessel, which the Pentagon/Central Command has denied.
Trump announced Sunday US will ‘help free up’ ships stuck in Hormuz Strait through Project Freedom.
Iran has in response issued a “redefined the control zone” in Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan facilities good faith return of Iranian crew members of US-seized merchant ship from two weeks ago.
On Monday morning, US Central Command announced that within 12 hours after President Trump unveiled ‘Project Freedom’, a pair of US-flagged merchant ships made it out of the Strait of Hormuz. The wording of the statement makes it sound like a US naval escort made this possible – though the degree to which this was the case remains unclear. Below is the CENTCOM statement.
U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are currently operating in the Arabian Gulf after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in support of Project Freedom. American forces are actively assisting efforts to restore transit for commercial shipping. As a first step, 2 U.S.-flagged merchant vessels have successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely headed on their journey.
This is being hailed as a the latest Pentagon success, however, the reality remains that Washington is celebrating a solution to a problem that did not exist before the launch of Operation Epic Fury. Or in other words, the US is seeking to open the strait which had never been closed prior to the Iran war. Meanwhile…
IRGC Says It Struck US Navy Ship, US Officials Deny
Iran is claiming to have attacked and struck a US Navy vessel, announcing that it stopped US warships from entering the Strait of Hormuz “with a firm and swift warning” and noting that “additional news will be announced later” – a statement by state Tasnim News Agency said. Soon after, Fars news agency said that two missiles hit a US navy vessel near Jask island after it ignored warnings from the IRGC to halt. Jerusalem Post also picked up on the statement, writing:
The ship reportedly turned back after being hit. The report further noted that the missiles had been launched after the US “violated security protocols for transit and navigation near Jask with the intent to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”
However, soon after Axios stated that a “senior US official denies a US ship was hit by Iranian missiles.” CENTCOM soon after said that no US navy ships have been struck, adding that US forces are supporting Project Freedom and enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports. It is the latest claimed major incident soon on the heels of President Trump the night prior announcing “Project Freedom” to “guide” stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.
But as we also noted, WSJ explained that Project Freedom “is a process through which countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations can coordinate moving traffic through the Strait, according to a senior U.S. official. It doesn’t currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the strait, the official said.” So a lot of confusion remains. UAE meanwhile chimes in with some verification of a strike on a LNG tanke
end
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
IRAN/ISRAEL/USA/DUBAI
Stocks Dump, Oil & Bond Yields Jump After Iran Missile/Drone Strikes On Dubai & UAE Oil Infrastructure
Monday, May 04, 2026 – 12:05 PM
Summary
Fujairah says 3 injured in Iranian attack on Oil Industry Zone
Following a report from the UAE National Emergency Crisis and Disaster that the country’s “air defenses are now dealing with a missile threat”, we have gotten reports of explosions in Dubai, which has sent oil higher and Emini futures into the red.
CENTCOM hails two US merchant ships exiting Hormuz Strait safely in “first step”. Bessent issues remarks warning the US “will fire if fired upon.”
Iran insists Hormuz is under its control & says it targeted & struck a US Navy vessel, which the Pentagon/Central Command has denied.
Trump announced Sunday US will ‘help free up’ ships stuck in Hormuz Strait through Project Freedom.
Iran has in response issued a “redefined the control zone” in Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan facilities good faith return of Iranian crew members of US-seized merchant ship from two weeks ago.
UAE air defences are actively engaging multiple Iranian missile and drone threats today, with the Ministry of Defence confirming four cruise missiles were detected heading toward the country; three were successfully intercepted over territorial waters while the fourth fell into the sea. Explosions have been reported in the Dubai area as air defence systems responded, prompting the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) to issue public safety alerts. In Fujairah, Iranian drones struck the Petroleum Industries Zone, causing a fire at the critical oil export terminal that includes the VTTI facility – the UAE’s key Hormuz-bypass hub. The Fujairah Media Office has confirmed three Indian citizens were moderately injured in the attack, marking the first reported civilian casualties in the current wave. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) separately reported suspicious activity and a fire aboard a cargo vessel approximately 36 nautical miles north of Dubai, with cause unknown.
The incidents unfold against a backdrop of heightened US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran claims control and has warned it will “forcefully stop” vessels violating its regulations, while denying US reports of safe transits under “Project Freedom.” CENTCOM has rejected Iranian claims of striking a US Navy vessel. Markets reacted sharply: Brent crude pushed back toward session highs above $119, E-mini futures turned lower, equities sold off, and the US 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.01% for the first time since July. The situation remains fluid with conflicting claims on both sides, and further official updates from UAE authorities are expected.
* * * EARLIER
Injuries Reported
The Fujairah Media Office / Emirate has confirmed that 3 Indian citizens/residents were moderately injured in today’s Iranian drone attack on the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone (oil industry complex).
Injuries are described as moderate (no fatalities reported).
This is the first confirmed civilian injuries from the current wave of attacks.
The incident is directly linked to the VTTI oil facility strike and the fire reported minutes earlier in the same zone.
Following reports from the Following a report from the UAE National Emergency Crisis and Disaster that Emirati air defenses are responding to a missile threat, we have seen reports of explosions in Dubai, which has sent oil higher and Emini futures into the red
Bloomberg adds that the UAE has detected four missiles coming from Iran
*UAE DETECTS FOUR MISSILES COMING FROM IRAN: DEFENSE MINISTRY
At the same time, the UK MTO Operations Center said that it has received reports multiple “Suspicious activities”
*UKMTO RECEIVES REPORT OF INCIDENT 36NM NORTH OF DUBAI
*UK NAVY: CARGO VESSEL REPORTED A FIRE IN THE ENGINE ROOM
*UK NAVY: CAUSE OF THE FIRE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME
Perhaps worst of all, it appears attacks have recommenced on UAE energy infrastructure (specifically, Fujairah – the end point of the pipeline the UAE uses to bypass the Strait of Hormuz).
*UAE’S FUJAIRAH SAYS AERIAL ATTACK FROM IRAN
*FUJAIRAH: IRAN DRONE ATTACK CAUSES FIRE AT OIL INDUSTRIAL ZONE
Operations at the strategic facility have been affected.
In the fog of war, it is increasingly unclear what is real and what is fiction, but while it is certainly possible that Iran has decided to re-escalate against the UAE, which is now as much of a nemesis as Iran, there is the possibility that the UAE is creating conditions for a false flag, hoping to drag the US into what would now be a “defensive” operation and thus not needing Congressional clearance.
In any case, the market is not happy, with stocks turning red…
… and oil pushing back to session highs.
And bonds are being dumped with 30Y yield back above 5.01% for the first time since July…
Bear in mind what Goldman warned on Friday:
It feels as though there are a few lines in the sand starting to develop in markets:
120 USD in Crude (note COA roll likely dampens vol a bit today compared to earlier in the week),
4.5% and 5.0% in UST 10/30yrs,
160 in USDJPY
we would be wary of all of these and the proximity to them all adds further fuel to any future resolution risk rally/Dollar sell-off.
Patience is key as always.
Some of those signals have been hit and others are looming.
* * *
Bessent: Will Fire if Fired Upon
Coinciding with ‘Day 1’ of Trump’s Project Freedom to “guide” stranded vessels out of the heavily contested Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has issued fresh remarks and warnings on Monday.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent says US is opening up the strait, we have absolute control of the strait. A quick summary of his main points via Newsquawk:
• Iranians do not have control of the strait. • Project freedom was not done in coordination with Iran. • If Iranians want to escalate, we are willing to do so. • US is firing only when fired upon. • It is a good time for US partners to step up and pressure Iran.
He further gave a very broad and fuzzy timeline, stating this ‘aberration’ will be over in ‘weeks or months’. At this point, admin officials are careful to avoid calling it a ‘war’ – given it has been 60 days since the start, and there’s the lingering question of Congressional authorization and war powers. Latest out of Hormuz:
Iranian IRGC attack hit a South Korean-linked ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Yonhap
END
UAE RESPONDS/MONDAY AFTERNOON
UAE Threatens Military Response
A fresh official statement: “The United Arab Emirates strongly condemns the new Iranian attacks that targeted civilian sites and facilities in the country, using missiles, drones, and cruise missiles, which resulted in the injury of three Indian nationals.”
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed in its statement that these attacks constitute a serious and reckless escalation, and a blatant violation of the security and stability of the state, as well as a clear violation of the principles of international law and the United Nations Charter.” And the UAE followed with the threat that it has the right to respond militarily against ongoing “aggression and provocation”:
The UAE stressed that it will not tolerate any aggression against its security and sovereignty, and that it will respond with full force and firmness to these attacks, in a manner that fully protects its national security and the safety of its citizens and residents, in accordance with international law.
There are further confirmed reports of injuries and a fire at one or more oil facilities:
Three Indian nationals have been injured in the drone attack on Fujairah’s petroleum industrial site being blamed on Iran, the Fujairah Media Office says. The three have been taken to the hospital and their injuries have been termed “moderate”.
UAE, Bahrain, Oman Under Threat
UAE air defences are actively engaging multiple Iranian missile and drone threats today, with the Ministry of Defence confirming four cruise missiles were detected heading toward the country; three were successfully intercepted over territorial waters while the fourth fell into the sea. Explosions have been reported in the Dubai area as air defence systems responded, prompting the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) to issue public safety alerts. In Fujairah, Iranian drones struck the Petroleum Industries Zone, causing a fire at the critical oil export terminal that includes the VTTI facility – the UAE’s key Hormuz-bypass hub. The Fujairah Media Office has confirmed three Indian citizens were moderately injured in the attack, marking the first reported civilian casualties in the current wave. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) separately reported suspicious activity and a fire aboard a cargo vessel approximately 36 nautical miles north of Dubai, with cause unknown.
The incidents unfold against a backdrop of heightened US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran claims control and has warned it will “forcefully stop” vessels violating its regulations, while denying US reports of safe transits under “Project Freedom.” CENTCOM has rejected Iranian claims of striking a US Navy vessel. Markets reacted sharply: Brent crude pushed back toward session highs above $119, E-mini futures turned lower, equities sold off, and the US 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.01% for the first time since July. The situation remains fluid with conflicting claims on both sides, and further official updates from UAE authorities are expected.
END
Ceasefire Over? US Mum As UAE, Israel Prepare Military Response After Fresh Iranian Cross-Gulf Missile Attack
Ceasefire Broken? Israel Awaiting US Greenlight
There remain lingering questions over whether the US-Iran ceasefire has definitively broken down with today’s Iranian attack on the UAE, as well as tit-for-tat hostilities in the Persian Gulf area. This as Israeli media says the Netanyahu government is awaiting a ‘green light’ to attack Iran again. Also the UAE is now planning a ‘severe retaliatory response’ and ‘harsh revenge’ against Tehran, per MS Now.
Yet strangely, the latest statement out of CENTCOM doesn’t touch on the question of a broken ceasefire, and President Trump himself has been silent on the matter, per the AP:
Cooper declined to say whether the exchange of hostilities between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz today amounted to an end to the ceasefire agreement. Cooper told reporters in a phone call this afternoon that Iran “initiated aggressive behavior” in the strait, according to a readout of the call provided by The Associated Press. “What we saw this morning was Iran initiating aggressive behaviors,” Cooper said. “We are simply going to respond to that.”
Meanwhile, amid the looming threat of bigger, renewed war:
UAE SAYS ALL SCHOOLS TO SWITCH TO REMOTE LEARNING
UAE Threatens Military Response
A fresh official statement: “The United Arab Emirates strongly condemns the new Iranian attacks that targeted civilian sites and facilities in the country, using missiles, drones, and cruise missiles, which resulted in the injury of three Indian nationals.”
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed in its statement that these attacks constitute a serious and reckless escalation, and a blatant violation of the security and stability of the state, as well as a clear violation of the principles of international law and the United Nations Charter.” And the UAE followed with the threat that it has the right to respond militarily against ongoing “aggression and provocation”:
The UAE stressed that it will not tolerate any aggression against its security and sovereignty, and that it will respond with full force and firmness to these attacks, in a manner that fully protects its national security and the safety of its citizens and residents, in accordance with international law.
There are further confirmed reports of injuries and a fire at one or more oil facilities:
Three Indian nationals have been injured in the drone attack on Fujairah’s petroleum industrial site being blamed on Iran, the Fujairah Media Office says. The three have been taken to the hospital and their injuries have been termed “moderate”.
by Tyler Durden
ISRAEL TBN
IRAN/USA
Bessent On Iran: “We Are Suffocating The Regime”
Sunday, May 03, 2026 – 02:35 PM
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo to discuss how the Trump administration is “suffocating” Iran with economic and financial pressure amid an ongoing U.S. military blockade of the Hormuz chokepoint.
“We are running a marathon over the past 12 months, and now we are sprinting toward the finish line”” Bessent told Bartiromo earlier this morning.
Bessent explained how the U.S. maximum pressure campaign on Tehran has become “a real economic blockade,” claiming the regime is “not able to pay their soldiers” and that oil infrastructure is quickly deteriorating, as crude oil storage quickly rises while export channels remain shuttered.
Bessent warned that Iran may have to start shutting in oil wells within the next week as exports remain constrained.
“Their oil infrastructure is starting to creak,” he said. “It hasn’t been maintained, again because of our decades-long sanctions against them.”
Bessent said no tankers are transiting the critical waterway from the Iranian side, “and we have increased the pressure on anyone trying to remit money into Iran to help the IRGC,” referring to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Amid the impact of Economic Fury, Iran’s currency has hit an all-time low.
The Iranian people deserve a new era, which the corrupt and shambolic Iranian regime cannot provide.
With their oil industry closing and their currency plummeting, it is past time for the Iranian regime… pic.twitter.com/k7QvKoWbl2— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) April 30, 2026
Late last week, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on Chinese independent “teapot” refineries, particularly those in Shandong Province, for their continued purchase and refining of Iranian crude.
By Saturday morning, Beijing announced that companies in the country should ignore and not comply with U.S. sanctions targeting five domestic refineries.
“The Chinese government has consistently opposed unilateral sanctions that lack authorization from the United Nations and a basis in international law,” Beijing’s Commerce Ministry wrote in a statement.
President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign on Tehran comes as the latest U.S. national average for 87-octane gasoline at the pump has topped $4.446 per gallon. Demand destruction starts around $5 per gallon, with numerous Goldman notes indicating that working-poor consumers are already dialing back purchases or trading down at gas stations and convenience stores due to the recent fuel price shock.
On Saturday, President Trump stated that he “can’t imagine” a new peace plan from Tehran that he will review would be acceptable. He added that Iran has not yet paid “a big enough price for what they have done.”
Axios reported earlier that the U.S. and Iran are “still exchanging drafts of a framework agreement to end the war.”
Last week, Iran delivered an updated 14-point proposal to the U.S. for a framework agreement. Sources told the outlet that the proposal sets a one-month deadline for reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint.
END
SUNDAY
Trump Announces “Project Freedom” To Help Ships Leave Hormuz Starting Monday
Sunday, May 03, 2026 – 09:55 AM
Update: (5:00pm ET): In response to the earlier notice from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which said that “Trump must choose between an impossible military operation or a bad deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the US president has decided to take a third path: in a post on Truth Social Trump said the US will begin guiding some ships that aren’t involved in the Iran conflict out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.
“The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance,” Trump, or rather his AI chatbot, wrote Sunday, although it was unclear just how the US will avoid the dozens of mines that line the Strait or evade the missiles that Iran has threatened it would shoot at US ships if they came too close to the Strait.
Trump called this extraction “Project Freedom”, and said it will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. The US president also said that he is “fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all.”
“This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran. Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Earlier, Trump suggested the Islamic Republic’s latest peace proposal might not be enough to satisfy him as efforts to put an end to the conflict have yet to show progress.
Aside from a very strong sense of deja vu about all this (Trump said the US would help escort ships more than a month ago and nothing happened). as Jim Bianco notes there are a four of possible outcomes from “Project Freedom”, two good, two bad:
US escorts ships out, Iran does nothing, war is over
US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships that the US can repel, war is over
US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships and hits them, or they hit a mine. The image of burning ships is a disaster for the Navy and the US, especially if it’s a US warship.
The US keeps threatening to do this, but the Navy never actually does it (akin to them not firing on the 40 or so fast boats in the Strait today when Trump said they would a several days ago). The US can be criticized for talking a big game with little action.
Outcomes 1 and 2 would send stocks higher; 3 and 4 would lead to the opposite, although in the current reality where nothing matters, there is a possibility that all 4 outcomes sends stocks to even recorder highs.
* * *
Earlier
Iran is telling Washington that the ball is in its court as President Trump has affirmed over the weekend that he is reviewing the latest peace deal submitted via Pakistani mediators. Tehran is further saying the US is going from worse to worse as it must now choose between an “impossible” military operation or a “bad” deal.
The intelligence unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has newly stated that “Trump must choose between an impossible military operation or a bad deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran,”according to Al Jazeera referencing the official statement. The provocative words framing the dilemma came soon on the heels of the following Saturday Truth Social post from Trump:
As for the IRGC statement about an “impossible” miliary operation, it further indicated that Tehran sent the US military a deadline to end its blockade of Iranian ports. It highlighted that Europe, China and Russia are are increasingly taking a more critical toward Washington’s war.
“The room for US decision-making has narrowed,” the IRGC intelligence unit sad additionally, emphasizing “there is only one way to read this.”
At the moment, the two-week ceasefire which was announced on April 8 through Pakistani mediation has been unilaterally extended by Trump, to now be indefinite. On Friday as the conflict reached 60-days, President Trump submitted a formal letter to Congress stressing Operation Epic Fury had already been ‘terminated’ due to the ceasefire.
The White House is arguing that this loophole – or the fact that there’s currently no exchanges of fire between the US and Iranian sides – means that required Congressional review and authorization of use of American troops is essentially voided. In the meantime gas prices at the pump for Americans are steadily rising. The below is the full IRGC statement to the US side:
IRGC Intelligence Organization:
🔺 Iran sets Pentagon a blockade deadline
🔺 China, Russia, Europe shift tone against Washington Trump’s passive letter to Congress
The current Iran-submitted plan now being reviewed at the White House reportedly contains 14 points. A Russian correspondent has said that “Iran is seeking a decisive and permanent end to the conflict with the US, rather than a previously proposed two-month ceasefire” and that it seems a one-month window to end all hostilities.
“The plan includes a demand to resolve all issues and end the war within 30 days,” said RT correspondent Saman Kojouri, adding that “”he space for compromise between Tehran and Washington is narrowing.” Just by the close of last week Trump said he was ‘not satisfied’ with what he had seen so far.
HEZBOLLAH
IDF kills Hezbollah terrorists in southern Lebanon, targets terror infrastructure
In an additional incident on Friday, Hezbollah launched several rockets toward IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon. The rockets fell in open areas.
The IDF killed several Hezbollah terrorists and destroyed terror targets in southern Lebanon on Friday, the military said on Saturday.
According to the statement, the terrorists were targeted after operating in close proximity to IDF soldiers.
In addition, over 50 Hezbollah infrastructure sites in various areas were struck, including command centers and other military structures which had been used by Hezbollah for terror purposes.
In an additional incident on Friday, Hezbollah launched several rockets toward IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon. The rockets fell in open areas.
The attacks came as the IDF decided to raise restrictions in some of Israel’s northern border communities, with Meron, Bar Yohai, Or HaGanuz, and Safsufa transferring to partial activity.https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4045227&url=www.jpost.comIDF strikes Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, May 1, 2026. (credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
Also on Friday, two people were lightly injured, and a vehicle was destroyed by a Hezbollah drone attack in Misgav Am in northern Israel, the Fire and Rescue Service said in a statement.
The IDF confirmed that the incident was due to a Hezbollah drone that crossed into northern Israel and called it a “violation of the ceasefire understandings by the Hezbollah terrorist organization.”
IDF issues evacuation warnings
Earlier on Saturday, IDF Arabic Spokesperson Col. (res.) Avichay Adraee issued evacuation warnings for several towns and villages in southern Lebanon in an X/Twitter post.
The post stated that the military will act against Hezbollah due to the terrorist organization’s ceasefire violations, adding that the IDF means no harm to the civilian population, who must evacuate for their own safety.
Maariv later cited Lebanese media as reporting seven people killed in southern Lebanon following alleged strikes by the IDF.
Yonah Jeremy Bob and Tobias Holcman contributed to this report.
END
SYRIA/IRAN
You live by the sword you die by the sword!!
Iran Outraged After Assassination Of Top Shia Cleric In Damascus
Monday, May 04, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei on Sunday strongly condemned the assassination of a Syrian Shia religious cleric, describing it as a terrorist attack and “heinous crime.”
On Friday, Sayyid Farhan al-Mansour, Imam of the Sayyeda Zainab Shrine in the southern suburbs of Damascus, was assassinated after a hand grenade was thrown at his vehicle. Mansour was targeted by unknown assailants shortly after he finished leading Friday prayers and was leaving the shrine.
Baghaei said that acts of terrorism targeting religious sites and scholars in Syria and across West Asia are part of a broader plot by Israel and the US to create sectarian division and chaos in the region.
Baghaei called on all parties to remain vigilant, confront terrorism and extremism, and stressed the need to hold those responsible for the attack accountable. He further emphasized that Syria’s transitional authorities are responsible for ensuring the safety of all citizens, including scholars and members of various ethnic and religious groups.
The Syrian Interior Ministry has said the assassination of a Shia cleric marks a “dangerous escalation,” adding it is following with “great concern” what it described as “systematic” attempts in recent days to create instability, spread chaos, and undermine civil peace.
A source told Asharq al-Awsat that the cleric killed on Friday was “considered a partner of the government in reshaping the landscape of stability within the Shia community” in Syria, going as far as to claim that this role made him a target for cells linked to the “Iran axis,” which, according to circles close to the Syrian government, are allegedly exploiting instability by recruiting local agents.
Since coming to power in December 2024, Syria’s new government has established a religious state based on the extremist teachings of the medieval Sunni religious scholar Ibn Taymiyya. Ibn Taymiyya preached that Shia and Alawite Muslims and Druze are apostates who deserve to be killed and their property stolen.
Syria’s new army, formed from the extremist Sunni armed factions supported by the foreign powers to topple Assad, has carried out multiple massacres against Syria’s minority communities.
In March 2025, Syrian forces massacred at least 1,500 Alawite civilians in the country’s coastal regions. In July 2025, Syrian and allied tribal forces massacred some 1,700 Druze in the Suwayda region of southern Syria.
During both massacres, Syrian fighters filmed many of their atrocities, including forcing Alawite men to crawl and bark like dogs before executing them en masse, and massacring entire families of Druze and Christians in their homes, and executing and beheading Druze men in the streets.
Syria’s army is led by the country’s new president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former ISIS commander who stated in an interview with Al-Jazeera in 2015 that Syria’s Alawites should be killed unless they convert to Sunni Islam.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Ukraine Flexes With Much Deeper Drone Reach Targeting Russia’s Refineries
Sunday, May 03, 2026 – 07:35 AM
Ukraine has been demonstrating deeper targeting reach inside Russia, as several key oil sites have come under direct drone attack this week, resulting in significant destruction.
This as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday announced “a new stage in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit the potential of Russia’s war.“
The massive Tuapse complex on Russia’s Black Sea coast has been hit no less than three times in under a month, sparking a series of massive fires that in some cases took days for emergency crews to extinguish.
In some cases, targets in the Urals – nearly 1,000 miles away from the Ukraine border – have been hit.
Transneft’s oil pumping and distribution facility in the city of Perm was struck this week, which lies very far into Russian territory.
The Ukraine Security Service (SBU) owned up to it, boasting that the targeted facility is “a strategically important hub of the main oil transportation system.” It further declared that “almost all oil storage tanks are on fire.“
Amid the fresh Perm attack, Russia had said it downed nearly 100 Ukrainian drones across various regions, while Russia’s presidential envoy to the region, Artem Zhoga, conceded that “The Urals are now within reach, be vigilant.”
Putin’s office has also denounced these fresh assaults on oil facilities as “terrorist attacks”. As for the prior Black Sea export and refining hub attacks of the last month, CNN reviews:
For the third time in 12 days, the Russian Black Sea town of Tuapse woke up Tuesday to apocalyptic scenes.
Thick toxic fumes, and flames rising up from the latest Ukrainian drone attack on the Rosneft-owned Tuapse oil refinery, almost reached the heights of the surrounding Caucasus mountains.
By Thursday morning, authorities said the fire had been extinguished. Fires from the two previous attacks, on April 16 and 20, also took days to put out, with toxic substances pouring down in black rain and blanketing cars and streets in oily grime, leading to what experts are dubbing the worst environmental disaster in the region in years.
Huge fireball at Perm oil site…
Ukrainian drone attacks have struck Perm (about 1,500 km from Ukraine), targeting oil infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/lCXo8Pb1tb
Currently, the globe’s attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well. Earlier in the Ukraine war, these major refinery attacks would dominate world headlines, but at the moment they have remained in the background given the constant Iran-related news flow. President Putin has lately communicated to Trump that he’s open to a ‘Victory Day’ ceasefire, a proposal the Kremlin said Washington has backed.
A luxury cruise ship carrying 149 passengers and crew is facing a suspected hantavirus outbreak that has already left three people dead. The vessel is currently anchored offshore near Cape Verde, the island nation in the central Atlantic off the west coast of Africa, as health officials rush to assess the scale of the outbreak.
The MV Hondius is currently anchored offshore near Praia, the capital and largest city of Cape Verde. Ship-tracking data show the vessel anchored just off the coast on Sunday after transiting from Argentina, with its prior voyage originating near the Antarctic Peninsula.
Track the virus-plagued ship.
Hondius’s operator, Oceanwide Expeditions, told BBC News that a Dutch husband and wife, as well as a German national, had died but did not reveal the cause of death. However, the Dutch company said hantavirus was confirmed in a 69-year-old UK national who is in intensive care in Johannesburg, South Africa.
The main transmission risk of the deadly virus to humans is through infected rodent urine, droppings, saliva, or contaminated dust, especially in poorly ventilated areas. People can inhale contaminated particles when rodent waste is disturbed.
Oceanwide Expeditions confirmed two other crew members on board “with acute respiratory symptoms, one mild and one severe.“
“It is not entirely uncommon for rodents to hitch a ride on a ship, which would be one possibility,” Charlotte Hammer, assistant professor and infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge, told the UK Science Media Center.
Hammer noted, “People having been infected when the ship last made port in Argentina is another possibility. The last possibility would be human-to- human transmission, which, particularly at scale, would be very unlikely.”
Bloomberg quoted the World Health Organization, which is “facilitating coordination between member states and the ship’s operators for medical evacuation of two symptomatic passengers, as well as a full public health risk assessment and support to the remaining passengers on board.”
This is yet another reminder of why cruises are a terrible way to spend a holiday.
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Pirates Of The Arabian
Monday, May 04, 2026 – 11:20 AM
By Stefan Koopman, senior macro strategist at Rabobank
“We landed on top of it. We took over the ship, the cargo, the oil. It’s a very profitable business… We’re like pirates.”President Trump’s remarks were, once again, strikingly blunt and unfiltered, to the point of sounding almost satirical. Yet the irony is real. The US president was openly acknowledging that American naval power in the Arabian Sea is now being used in ways that mirror the practices it was once built to suppress.
Negotiating with pirates is difficult. While this weekend’s headlines finally hint at diplomacy between the US and Iran, the gap between their positions appears wider than the Strait itself. Iran continues to cling to maximalist demands, while the US rejects them as unacceptable. For now, no credible outlines of a deal have emerged.
In the meantime, Washington is trying a different tactic. The US is encouraging neutral commercial vessels to run the blockade, putting Iran’s threats to the test. It has offered to help guide stranded ships through the Strait by sharing information on safer transit routes (e.g. no mines) and, potentially, insurance support. Although US navy vessels may operate nearby, this falls short of formal military escorts, which would likely violate the ceasefire. Even so, the approach carries obvious risks, as it could still result in exchanges of fire with Iranian ships, which might then lead to further escalation.
From Washington’s perspective, that risk is not entirely unwelcome. Any Iranian attack on neutral shipping would strengthen the US public‑relations case and might make it a bit easier to assemble the international coalition that has so far proven elusive.
If some energy does flow out of Hormuz, it will kick the can down further down the road. The deeper problem remains that both sides believe they have won. Washington points to the destruction of much of Iran’s navy and air force, its missile‑launching capacity, and large parts of its military and industrial base. Tehran draws a different conclusion. It has survived a campaign widely seen as aiming at regime collapse, it has demonstrated its ability to strike across the Gulf and into Israel, and it has shown it can place the global economy in a chokehold.
Even as its own economy suffers from the US blockade, Tehran appears convinced it can outlast the US economically and politically, especially as Trump moves closer to the midterm elections. At present neither side holds a strong card, yet both believe time is on its side. That might look like a manageable situation were it not for oil markets losing roughly 10 million barrels a day, with inventories now running uncomfortably low.
This leaves Trump facing a binary choice. He can pursue genuine diplomacy, concede parts of Iran’s demands, and secure outcomes he wants. That path would provoke resistance from Israel and hawks in Washington, but it would also be the fastest way to restore flows through Hormuz. Or he can resume the war, whether being provoked or not, betting that another bombing campaign will achieve what the first 40 days did not.
The problem is that coercion does not stop at Iran. Its oil may be seized, but buyers are punished too. The US Treasury has escalated sanctions by targeting major Chinese oil importers, most notably Hengli, a 400,000‑barrel‑a‑day refinery accused of purchasing billions of dollars of Iranian crude. Beijing pushed back. Its commerce ministry invoked the Blocking Statute, instructing firms not to comply with what it described as unjustified and improper US sanctions. This puts large companies between a rock and a hard place, because they either have to decide to comply with US sanctions or with the Chinese rules. That points at decoupling.
Pirates also have a habit of breaking deals. Over the past year European policymakers persuaded themselves that a durable bargain with this White House was possible. That belief produced the Turnberry deal, a one‑sided concession presented as a truce to stabilize Transatlantic trade. The logic was always questionable. And this weekend president Trump said he will raise its Section 232 tariffs on European car imports back to 25% from Turnberry’s 15%, underlining how little its own deals constrain it.
The Commission’s instinct may be to reopen talks, seeking a return to the lower rate through technical adjustments or promises of rapid implementation. That reaction is understandable, but it may also miss the point. The lesson of the Greenland episode is that this administration responds more to firmness than to appeasement. On paper, Europe has options too. It still holds a list of €93bn in retaliatory tariffs, suspended after Turnberry. It also has the Anti‑Coercion Instrument, the so‑called trade bazooka, which allows restrictions on US investment or the withdrawal of intellectual property protection. The tools exist, but the question ahead is whether Europe is willing to follow China’s lead?
US pressure on Europe, and Germany in particular, is not limited to trade. Days after a call between Trump and Putin, Washington said it would withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany, part of the 37,000 still stationed there. Russia would clearly welcome such a move, as would Iran. Trump appears to see these forces as deployed mainly to protect Germany. In reality, the bases exist to allow the US to project power into Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Their removal would weaken America’s own strategic reach.
Berlin now faces the same choice as Brussels. One option is deference, flattering a protector in the hope of restraint despite mounting evidence that protection has become transactional and unreliable. The other is acceptance and acceleration, by folding this shock into Europe’s broader defense awakening and pushing faster towards genuine strategic autonomy.
end
RUSSIA/
Russian Black Sea Town Plunged Into Environmental Catastrophe After 4th Drone Strike On Oil Complex
Saturday, May 02, 2026 – 09:55 AM
Russia’s Tuapse on the Black Sea can’t catch a break as it has been hit by Ukrainian drones for the fourth time within only a month, after a series of devastating attacks in April which unleashed large fires.
On Friday another fire broke out at a marine terminal in Tuapse after this latest Ukrainian drone strike, regional emergency officials have confirmed. Over 100 fire-fighting personnel are battling the blaze.
Tuapse has already been under a state of emergency for several days, when a Ukrainian drone strike triggered a massive refinery fire, forcing evacuations and spilling oil into coastal waters.
That prior fire was only extinguished Thursday, and only 24 hours later the next drone strike hit. The town there has already been facing environmental disaster, with even black rain reported due to the constant thick black smoke hanging high above.
Russia’s consumer safety watchdog Rospotrebnadzorwarned residents to limit time outdoors, keep windows closed, and wear masks due to elevated benzene levels – a highly toxic carcinogen – following repeated drone attacks.
Local authorities have canceled all public events through at least the first ten days of May, covering Labor Day and Victory Day celebrations.
President Putin said earlier in the week after a briefing from Kondratyev that there did not “seem to be any dangers and people are handling the challenges they face” amid the attacks.
However, frustrated locals are desperately asking: what about Russian defensive measures and why have these failed so spectacularly? First, it should be noted that small drones have become efficient and their size advantage is seen in evading conventional radar and anti-air missiles, by and large. TASS only has this to offer by way of official statement:
“Intensive efforts are underway” to prevent Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory.
All details about targets hit by the Kiev regime are classified: “As for any information regarding targets hit as a result of strikes by the Kiev regime, the details are classified; we will not discuss them publicly at this time.”
Measures to deal with the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone strike on the oil refinery in Tuapse are being taken “at an appropriate level.”
The complex processes some 12 million metric tons of crude annually and remains a crucial and major export route for naphtha, fuel oil, and diesel.
Local Russian authorities have completely given up censorship efforts at the Tuapse Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, which continues to burn after yesterday's 4th round of Ukrainian drone strikes.
The fallout from these several attacks of late have been so serious as to force the closure of nearby regional aviation hubs. Some residents have begun fleeing the area to seek shelter with other family, until the situation stabilizes.
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS COMMENTARIES
IRAN
Large Cargo Ship Near Hormuz Reports Being Attacked, In First Escalation Since April 22
Sunday, May 03, 2026 – 01:56 PM
A large cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz has reported being attacked by multiple small craft, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said Sunday, marking at least two dozen attacks in and around the strait since the Iran war began.
All crew on the unidentified northbound carrier, which could be the Pasargad 11 General Cargo Ship with a destination of Dubai after it reversed…
… were safe after the attack off Sirik, Iran, east of the strait, the monitor said. Iranian officials have asserted that they control the strait and that ships not affiliated with the United States or Israel can pass if they pay a toll.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, the first reported in the area since April 22, when a cargo ship reported being fired upon, the monitor said. The threat level in the area remains critical. Tehran effectively closed the strait by attacking and threatening ships.
Iranian patrol boats, some powered only by twin outboard motors, are small, nimble and hard to detect and have attacked several ships. President Donald Trump last month ordered the U.S. military to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines in the strait.
Separately, Iran’s FARS news reported that several vessel captains in the Ras Al Khaimah area of the UAE had been instructed via VHF radio to vacate their anchorages. However, media reports indicate that it was business as usual 5 hours after the Iranian warning, with ship positions largely unchanged.
The fragile three-week ceasefire appears to be holding, though Trump on Saturday told journalists that further strikes remained a possibility
END
RUSSIA
Russia’s Oil Revenues Surge As The World Scrambles For Supply
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, several major world powers introduced strict sanctions on trade with Moscow. Europe and the United States have been gradually decreasing their dependence on Russian gas and other energy products and putting pressure on other countries to do the same, to place a financial strain on Moscow, as the war with Ukraine continues. However, some countries, such as India and China, have used these sanctions as an excuse to buy discounted crude and gas from Russia, in a bid to reduce costs and boost energy security.
Imports of Russian crude to China and India have increased significantly since 2022. In 2024, China bought a record of more than 100 million tonnes of Russian oil, which contributed nearly 20 percent of its energy imports. Meanwhile, India spent an estimated $140 billion on Russian energy imports. Over the last year, both Asian countries deepened their ties with Moscow following the imposition of high tariffs on imports by the United States.
Although several countries have decreased their dependence on Russian energy since the invasion of Ukraine, shifting dependence to alternative energy sources, some have been forced to turn back to Russia in the wake of the “largest oil disruption in history”. Even the United States, the main advocate for the imposition of strict sanctions on Russian energy, appears to have changed its tune in recent weeks.
On 16th April, the U.S. Treasury Department extended a sanctions exemption on the sale of some Russian crude, which is expected to be in effect until May 16. This follows a previous sanctions waiver on Russia, which expired on April 11. The move by the Trump administration to ease sanctions is in response to the strain placed on the global energy market following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in February and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The move is expected to decrease the cost of oil as countries are permitted to legally purchase hundreds of millions of barrels of crude from Russia. A spokeswoman from the U.S. Treasury said: “As negotiations accelerate, Treasury wants to ensure all oil is available to those who need it.”
In recent weeks, it has remained unclear if the Strait of Hormuz will be fully opened again or whether it will remain under threat of attack. On April 10th, Iran reopened the Strait to all commercial ships before closing it once again less than 24 hours later, citing the ongoing U.S. blockade on Iranian ports as the cause.
As the trade outlook in the Middle East remains uncertain, Russian sales of crude to India are expected to remain near record highs in April and May, largely owing to the latest U.S. sanctions waiver. The finances earned from the sale of Russian oil could help Moscow fund its military spending for the war in Ukraine.
India shipped around 2.25 million bpd of Russian crude in March, marking an increase of almost 100 percent compared to February volumes. Russian crude arrivals in Indian ports were expected to reach 2.1 million bpd for the week of April 20 to 27, an increase from 1.67 million bpd the previous week.
The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has led India and China to compete for global oil supplies, mainly from Russia, as well as Saudi Arabia. “The competition for Russian crude between India and China has been intense and will continue to be so for June-loading cargoes,” a senior analyst at Kpler, Muyu Xu, told CNBC. “The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is prompting Asian countries to seek cheap crude that is readily available, and Russian crude falls into this category,” added Xu.
Before the War in Iran, China was importing vast quantities of Iranian crude. However, the conflict has caused major disruptions to energy trade as well as led to the destruction of energy infrastructure across the Middle East. This has led China to rely more heavily on Russia for its oil supplies.
It is not just China and India that are turning to Russian energy, as, in April, Indonesia announced plans to buy up to 150 million barrels of oil from Russia. Roughly 20 to 25 percent of Indonesia’s oil imports typically come from the Middle East and traverse the Strait of Hormuz. “Indonesia has now secured a commitment from the Russian government. We can store 150 million barrels in Indonesia to address economic volatility issues,” the Antara state news agency quoted President Prabowo Subianto’s brother Hashim as saying.
The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to drive up energy prices due to the severe energy trade disruptions, caused largely by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has led many governments to seek alternative energy sources to ensure their energy security for the coming months. The temporary waiver for sanctions on the import of Russian energy is expected to drive up oil and gas trade significantly in the coming months, which could result in more money being channelled into Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine – the exact thing that the United States and Europe were originally trying to avoid by introducing sanctions.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
China Tries To Assert Dominance Over Canada After Carney Trade Deal
Sunday, May 03, 2026 – 08:25 PM
Historically speaking, crawling to communists for help has never been a good idea; there’s always a catch. By extension, making trade deals with China and the CCP from a position of weakness usually ends with diplomatic concessions instead of mere economic concessions. That is to say, the Chinese are less interested in economic benefits, and more interested in political submission.
Canadians are about to speed run this lesson after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s “new strategic partnership” formed with China early this year. The announcement has been heralded as a pragmatic reset in Canada-China relations after years of tensions, aimed at diversifying Canada’s trade amid U.S. tariffs under Trump. The goals of the deal include increased bilateral trade, agricultural agreements, currency swaps and energy exports.
The problem is, Carney also wants Canada to maintain its relationship with Taiwan, which the CCP views as a violation of their “One China” policy. Not surprisingly, China is already using their newfound economic leverage to pressure Canada to submit to their demands on Taiwan.
Chinese Ambassador to Canada, Wang Di, has warned that the new strategic partnership between Canada and China could be damaged if Canada continues sending parliamentarians (MPs and senators) to Taiwan, or if they continue transiting warships through the Taiwan Strait.
Wang emphasized the One China principle, stating there is “only one China in the world, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory.” He described Taiwan as a core interest and political foundation for bilateral relations, warning that official engagements by Canadian parliamentarians with Taiwanese officials would be “hurtful.”
🚨CHINA ISSUES ULTIMATUM🚨
First, Carney pulls MPs out of Taiwan.
Now China is warning Canada not to go back – and not to send ships either.
Carney told Canadians he was dealing with China because the U.S. was "unreliable".
— Northern Perspective (@NorthrnPrspectv) May 1, 2026
Canadian MPs and senators have long visited Taiwan, including numerous meetings with the president and foreign minister. But, this year their trips to Taiwan have been cut short, with Canada showing a quiet willingness to “de-conflict” high-profile visits when they overlap with China diplomacy.
Taiwan’s envoy to Ottawa warned that Canada’s burgeoning attachment to China could put them in a vulnerable position and lead to “trade weaponization” by the CCP.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has led his country into economic chaos as one of the few leaders unwilling to negotiate a basic trade deal with the Trump Administration. He should have been the first to make a deal, given that around 75% of Canada’s export economy relies on US markets and there is no viable alternative that will bring anywhere close to the same trade revenues.
Canada’s housing market is currently in shambles with prices still skyrocketing. Jobs losses are climbing. Factories are shutting down. Food prices are inflating.
It’s a matter of simple math and basic geography: The US is the largest consumer market by far with 30% of total global buying power. China is around 12% of the global total and their consumer spending is far less liquid (and spread out over a much larger population). Furthermore, shipping goods 6000 miles to China is a lot more expensive and inefficient than shipping goods right across the border to the US. It’s not complicated – making a deal with the US is the superior option.
However, Carney and his globalist ilk are not interested in common sense trade policies, they are engaged in an ideological war with the Trump Administration. This is about an increasingly “woke” and socialist Canadian regime vs an increasingly nationalist and anti-woke US government.
Carney has consistently painted the situation between the US and Canada as a war, and he has made it clear he intends to “win”. This means cutting deals with traditional enemies like China; not because it makes sense financially, but because it’s a way to spite Trump and conservatives in America.
In the end, it is a foolish plan which will only end up costing Canadians billions in export revenues and possibly enslave them to eastern geopolitical interests; further inflaming tensions with the US.
CUBA
Trump Hits Cuba With New Sanctions; Rubio Warns Of Havana’s Foreign Influence Ops
Saturday, May 02, 2026 – 03:45 PM
The Trump administration’s Cuba pressure campaign accelerated this past week, with Trump signing an executive order Friday that broadens U.S. sanctions against Havana and opens the door to severe penalties on foreign firms operating key nodes in the Cuban economy. On top of this, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a very interesting comment, as if he or his staffers had read our late-2025 note titled “Is There A ‘Cuba Connection’ Behind The Radicalization Of America’s Nonprofit Left?”
Let’s begin with the next round of U.S. sanctions that target the communist regime, more specifically, individuals, entities, affiliates, officials, and supporters linked to Cuba’s security apparatus, corruption, or serious human rights abuses. It also authorizes secondary sanctions against parties that conduct or facilitate transactions with sanctioned targets, as this can only be viewed as maximum pressure against the Havana communists ramping up.
Reuters quoted Jeremy Paner, a former sanctions investigator at the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, who said the next round of sanctions was the most significant on non-U.S. companies since the U.S. embargo against Cuba began decades ago.
“Oil and gas, mining companies, and banks that have carefully segregated their Cuba operations from the United States are no longer protected,” said Paner, who now works for law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed.
Reuters also quoted that Trump’s order contained an implicit warning to Cuba, accusing the Cuban communists of being in cahoots with Iran and militant groups like Hezbollah.
“Cuba provides a permissive environment for hostile foreign intelligence, military, and terrorist operations less than 100 miles from the American homeland,” one official said.
Also, this week, Rubio told Fox News that Cuban communists are a national security threat because they had “rolled out the welcome mat to adversaries” of the US.
“We are not going to have a foreign military or intelligence or security apparatus operating with impunity 90 miles off the shores of the United States,” Rubio said. “That’s not going to happen under President Trump.”
“We are not going to have a foreign military or intelligence or security apparatus operating with impunity 90 miles off the shores of the United States,” Secretary Rubio said about Cuba. “That's not going to happen under President Trump.” pic.twitter.com/BjGaVtc7I7
Rubio’s warning about foreign influence operations emanating from the communist island has been on our radar for months, particularly given the long-running pattern of U.S.-based left-wing NGOs and Democratic Party figures praising, visiting, or engaging with Havana-linked communist networks.
In that note, we documented the weird obsession among certain U.S.-based left-wing NGOs and Democratic-aligned politicians with traveling to Cuba for revolutionary workshops. The big question was whether this represents more than activist tourism, and whether foreign ideological grooming has helped shape the current messaging from the Democratic Party today that embraces anti-American rhetoric, rejects capitalism, and openly calls for socialist revolution.
Miami Herald reported…
Democratic Socialists of America openly touting their visit…
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1704 DOWN 0.0009
USA/ YEN 157.13 UP 0.184 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3543 DOWN 0.0023 OR 23 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3604 UP 0.0023 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 23 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 4.64 PTS OR 0.11%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 319.35 PTS OR 1.24%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.77%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 319.35 PTS OR 1.24%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.64 PTS OR 0.11%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.76%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 228.20 PTS OR 0.38%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4562.60
silver:$73.35
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.20 PLUS 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 75.56 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 42 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.953 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.606 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.567 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.0694 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early MONDAY MORNING: 98.20 UP 20 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.462% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.496% DOWN 0 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.719 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.513 UP 3 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.889 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0528 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1708 DOWN 0.0006 OR 6 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.06 UP 0.122 OR YEN IS DOWN 12 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.9530 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.6342 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS.
REAR VIEW: Iran hits UAE’s Fujairah energy facility; Fed’s Williams says eventual rate cuts will happen; Trump said the US will guide neutral ships safely out of the Strait of Hormuz; Conflicting reports re. US patrol boat being struck; South Korea cargo ship hit; UAE air defense systems activated; Finance Minister Katayama said they would take firmer steps against speculative FX activity.
COMING UP: Holiday: Japan’s Children’s Day; Chinese Labour Day Data: Swiss Inflation (Apr), US Building Permits Final (Mar), Canadian Balance of Trade (Mar), Canadian PMI (Apr), US PMI Final (Apr), US ISM Services (Apr), US JOLTS (Mar), US New Home Sales (Mar), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (May), New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q1) Events: RBA Policy Announcement (May), BCB Minutes (Apr) Speakers: RBA’s Bullock; ECB’s Lagarde, Lane; Fed’s Bowman, Barr Supply: Germany Earnings: AMD, AMC, Strategy, Tempus AI, Shopify, PayPal, Pfizer, HSBC, Leonardo, Infineon.
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MARKET WRAP
Markets traded risk-off on Monday as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE drove energy prices sharply higher. The move weighed on equities and bonds, while supporting the dollar.
Crude surged on reports of direct conflict between the US and Iran in the Strait, alongside Iranian strikes on the UAE, including the Fujairah energy facility. The escalation lifted inflation expectations, pressuring Treasuries and weighing on broader risk sentiment.
Equities were broadly lower, with all major indices in the red and the Dow underperforming. Sector performance was also weak, with losses across most, although Energy outperformed amid the rally in oil prices. The VIX rose, reflecting the risk-off tone.
In rates, Treasuries sold off across the curve as higher oil prices lifted yields, with the move led by the front-end as inflation expectations repriced.
In FX, the dollar was firmer on safe-haven demand, although gains were choppy following remarks from Fed’s Williams, who said that rate cuts are still expected eventually and that he does not currently consider the need for rate hikes. G10 FX broadly weakened against the dollar, with higher beta currencies underperforming.
In commodities, crude benchmarks surged, while gold and silver declined despite the risk-off tone, pressured by higher yields.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 15 TICKS LOWER AT 110-05+
Treasuries sold off across the curve on Monday, with yields rising as geopolitical tensions escalated and oil prices surged. At settlement, 2-year +7.6bps at 3.956%, 3-year +7.5bps at 3.978%, 5-year +7.2bps at 4.086%, 7-year +6.7bps at 4.261%, 10-year +6.6bps at 4.438%, 20-year +6.3bps at 5.017%, 30-year +5.8bps at 5.019%.
THE DAY: T-notes came under pressure throughout the session as crude rallied sharply amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports suggested US and Iran exchanged fire on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran launched a wave of missiles and drones targeting the UAE, including the Fujairah energy facility. The escalation drove energy prices higher, lifting inflation expectations and weighing on Treasuries across the curve. On the Fed, Williams noted he still expects rate cuts eventually and does not currently see a need to consider hikes, although his comments had little impact on Treasury price action, the dollar saw a bout of brief selling. Attention also turned to the Treasury’s latest financing estimates, which showed an upward revision to borrowing needs. The Treasury now expects to borrow USD 189bln in Q2 (vs prev. USD 109bln), while maintaining an end-June cash balance target of USD 900bln. For Q3, borrowing is projected at USD 671bln, with an end-September cash balance of USD 950bln. The Treasury also confirmed it borrowed USD 577bln in Q1, with an end-quarter cash balance of USD 893bln.
SUPPLY
Bills
US sold 3-month bills at a high rate of 3.610%, B/C 2.76x; sold 6-month bills at high rate 3.610%, B/C 2.79x
US to sell USD 75bln of 6-week bills on May 5th; all to settle on May 7th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Fed Pricing: June +1.1bps (prev. -0.4bps), July -0.7bps (prev. -1.2bps), Sept +0.3bps (prev. -2.3bps), Dec +8.7bps (prev. +0.7bps)
NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.62bln (prev. 0.61bln) across 11 counterparties (prev. 5) on May 4th
SOFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.66%), volumes at USD 3.15tln (prev. USD 3.275tln) on May 1st
NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.62bln (prev. 0.61bln) across 11 counterparties (prev. 5) on May 4th
CRUDE
WTI (N6) SETTLED USD 4.97 HIGHER AT 101.51/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLED USD 6.27 HIGHER AT 114.44/BBL
The crude complex was firmer, as US/Iran tensions once again ramped up in a day dominated by Middle East headlines. Over the weekend, US President Trump said the US will guide neutral ships safely out of the Strait of Hormuz, and then conflicting reports followed in early morning trade. Numerous outlets said two missiles hit a US patrol boat, after earlier warnings were disregarded, but senior US officials and CENTCOM denied these reports, which saw two-way action across markets. Initially, risk off trade was seen, but reversed on the denials. Since then, benchmarks have risen since the US cash open to see WTI and Brent hit peaks of USD 101.59/bbl and 115.30/bbl, respectively, as UAE air defense systems have reportedly responded to six separate missile threats, and UAE’s Fujairah port had a massive fire after being struck. Following these headlines, a source reportedly told CNN’s reporter in Dubai that they expect US/Israeli strikes on Iran within the next 24 hours, and UAE Foreign Ministry stated it reserves full and legitimate right to respond to Iranian attacks. Further escalating the war, a South Korean cargo ship was hit in the Strait, which saw Trump request for the nation to join the mission. Note, we are yet to hear from the US President regarding UAE, so await any further remarks. Even more on this front, Iran said it had no plans to target UAE, but later followed up with, via an Iran military source, if the Emiratis become Israel’s playthings and make mistakes, they will learn a lesson that they will never forget, adding if UAE takes an unwise action, all its interests will become Iran’s target, and no point of the UAE’s facilities will be safe. As such, participants await any further updates, escalation, or de-escalations overnight, with US’ Caine and Hegseth to give a press briefing tomorrow.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.41% at 7,201, NDX -0.21% at 27,652, DJI -1.13% at 48,942, RUT -0.60% at 2,796
SECTORS: Technology +2.46%, Consumer Discretionary +1.36%, Communication Services +0.88%, Materials +0.62%, Utilities +0.16%, Energy -0.24%, Real Estate -0.38%, Consumer Staples -0.42%, Financials -0.64%, Industrials -0.89%, Health -1.37%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -2.44% at 5,988, Dax 40 -2.42% at 24,672, CAC 40 -2.17% at 8,394, FTSE MIB -1.97% at 46,280, IBEX 35 -2.62% at 17,879, PSI -0.04% at 9,272, SMI -1.42% at 13,816, AEX -1.06% at 1,016.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
Amazon (AMZN) opening its global logistics network to all businesses through Amazon Supply Chain Services. Of note for FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS).
AMD (AMD) downgraded at HSBC to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’.
Apple (AAPL) Mac supply reportedly constrained by TSM 3nm capacity.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): Revenue rose and net earnings more than doubled
GameStop (GME) made an offer to buy eBay (EBAY) for c. USD 56bln, or USD 125/shr in cash & stock; EBAY closed Fri. at 104.07. Later, GME CEO said he has not had conversations with EBAY.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): Revenue light with dismal FY profit guidance and said it is experiencing headwinds regarding the Middle East.
O-I Glass (OI) upgraded at Wells Fargo.
Spirit Aviation (FLYYQ) ceased operations.
FX
The Dollar largely gained vs. G10 FX peers, albeit not seeing extensive gains against any particular currency as escalating geopolitics dominated the tape. As such, and amid risk off trade, the Greenback benefitted from the seemingly worsening US/Iran relations. Over the weekend, Trump said the US will guide neutral ships safely out of the Strait of Hormuz, but on Monday there were numerous reports of fire, with UAE defense system activated on six different occasions. Highlighting the range of attacks, a South Korea cargo ship was struck in Hormuz, while UAE’s Fujairah port caught fire. As such, attention will be on any rhetoric, from either side, to see what transpires next. Away from the Middle East, Fed’s Williams (voter) noted monpol remains well positioned for uncertain economy, and the job market break even might range between zero and 50k jobs per month now. The influential Williams later added longer-term outlook still suggests eventual rate cuts will happen and does not see need to start weighing Fed interest rate hike. Ahead, US non-farm payrolls report is the highlight on Friday.
JPY was the relative outperformer, albeit only flat, which once again only told half the story as USD/JPY traded between 155.69 and 157.30, with intervention once again touted, after a sharp move in overnight trade. In addition, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama remarked they would take firmer steps against speculative FX activity, under the remit of the 2025 US agreement
G10 FX newsflow was sparse elsewhere, as focus resided around the Middle East picture, although there were a few central bank speakers. From Europe, ECB’s Muller said ECB rate is at more-or-less neutral level and allows time to wait, while Kazimir noted policy tightening in June is all but inevitable, and Nagel remarked that a June rate hike may be warranted if the inflation outlook does not improve significantly. Out of the Antipodeans, whereby Aussie was the G10 laggard, RBNZ Board Member Gai said supply shocks such as the Hormuz situation have raised the neutral rate. Ahead, RBA is overnight whereby the central bank is expected is expected to deliver a third consecutive rate hike, as a recent Reuters poll showed 30 out of 33 economists expect the RBA to hike the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.35%, while only three economists forecast rates to be kept unchanged at the current 4.10% level.
USA DATA RELEASES
Core US Factory Orders Surged In March To Best YoY Growth Since Nov 2022
Monday, May 04, 2026 – 10:05 AM
Headline Factory Orders rose 1.5% MoM in March (dramatically better than the 0.6% MoM expected) – the best since November. February’s data was also revised higher. However, overall, orders were only up 2.1% YoY – the lowest since JUly 2025
Source: Bloomberg
Core Factory Orders surge 1.6% MoM (also better than the 1.3% MoM expected) and up for the 5th straight month. That dragged the YoY growth in core orders up 4.09% YoY – the best since Nov 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Given the surge in ISM Manufacturing’s New Orders sub-component…
Source: Bloomberg
…there is a notable divergence between the ‘soft’ survey data and the ‘hard’ data.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
All-Time High 55% Of Americans Say That Their Financial Situations Are Getting Worse
Americans were not even this stressed about their financial situations during the Great Recession. As you will see below, a brand new Gallup survey has discovered that 55 percent of Americans believe that their finances are getting worse. That is higher than any reading that Gallup recorded during the recession of 2008 and 2009, and it is higher than any reading that Gallup recorded during the pandemic. But of course this shouldn’t exactly be a surprise to any of us. We have been in a historic cost of living crisis since 2020, and our standard of living has been steadily deteriorating as the purchasing power of our money has gone down.
If you are making the same amount of money as you did at the beginning of this decade, you are in far worse shape financially today.
That is just the reality of the time that we are living in.
As a result, people are more concerned about the economy than anything else.
According to Gallup, the percentage of Americans that believe that their finances are getting worse has been rising for five years in a row and is now at the highest level ever recorded…
Americans’ financial outlook in 2026 is also historically poor, with a record 55% now saying their financial situation is getting worse. While similar to last year’s 53%, this is up from 47% in 2024 and marks the fifth consecutive year more Americans say their finances are worsening rather than improving.
The only similar multiyear period when the larger share felt their financial situation was worsening was during the Great Recession.
At this stage, there is no denying the trend that we are witnessing.
Majorities worry about not having enough money for retirement (62%) and being unable to cover medical costs in the event of a serious accident or illness (60%). Slightly smaller majorities (54% each) worry about their investment returns and maintaining their standard of living.
Nearly half are concerned about routine healthcare costs (48%), while 41% worry about paying their normal monthly bills and 40% about affording college. Fewer worry about housing costs (35%) or making minimum credit card payments (28%).
Living paycheck to paycheck is not fun at all.
Many of you know exactly what I am talking about.
Today, much of the country is just one major setback away from financial ruin…
According to a recent national survey, a little over $6,000 in additional debt is all it takes to push a family over the edge. Six thousand dollars. The cost of a half-decent secondhand car. A modest kitchen renovation. In the country that put a man on the moon, mapped the human genome, won two world wars, and produces more billionaires per capita than anywhere on earth, that’s the cliff edge.
The old vocabulary no longer fits. The conservative catechism of thrift, discipline, and delayed gratification has aged poorly in light of the evidence. Tariffs, as the survey notes, rippled through supply chains and left a sizeable dent in consumers’ pockets. Health care waits in the background, capable of dismantling a decade of careful saving with a single bad diagnosis. American households have always lived under financial pressure. The difference now is the direction — or rather, the directions. It is coming from everywhere at once, which is what makes it almost impossible to outrun.
The middle class is being systematically eviscerated all around us.
It is a national crisis that just keeps intensifying year after year.
The response has been behavioral rather than political, which is another way of saying people have given up waiting for someone to fix it. Nights out get canceled. Rent falls behind. Medical appointments get postponed and rarely rescheduled. None of this is irrational. When survival takes priority, everything else enters a waiting room with no clear appointment time. What makes it particularly disturbing is that financial distress doesn’t stay financial. It moves through relationships and communities, rearranging what people believe is possible for themselves.
Some will call it hyperbolic to suggest the American Dream is dead. Perhaps. But a dream balanced on a six-thousand-dollar ledge, in a stiff wind, is not exactly thriving. With energy prices soaring and the probability of a recession climbing with every new data release, the wind is picking up.
What about you?
Have you found yourself changing your spending behavior in recent years in an attempt to save money?
If so, there are countless others that are in the exact same shoes.
Unfortunately, the outlook for the months ahead is not promising at all.
On Tuesday, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States rose to the highest level that we have seen since the war with Iran began…
Gas prices climbed Tuesday to their highest level since the Iran conflict began.
The national average for a gallon of regular hit $4.18, up 15 cents from a week earlier and about $1 higher than a year ago, according to AAA.
As energy prices rise, it is going to affect the cost of everything else too.
Meanwhile, the government just continues to tax us into oblivion.
As I have detailed in other articles, each year Americans are hit with literally dozens of different taxes and fees.
When you add all of them together, some Americans end up paying more than 50 percent of their incomes in taxes and fees.
Even for liberal HBO host Bill Maher, the math behind Tax Day no longer adds up.
Maher took to his platform on “Real Time” to sound the alarm on a staggering personal tax burden that he says claims the majority of his earnings, sparking a wider debate on whether the American government is simply “incompetent and corrupt” despite a $5 trillion revenue stream.
“Last week was Tax Day… I paid to the government, if you add in state tax, local, sales, property, fees, Obamacare, probably almost 60% of what I earn. That’s a lot,” Maher said on a recent episode.
If you have to hand over more than half of what you earn to the government, you are no longer living in a capitalist system.
Some people out there don’t seem to have figured that out yet.
In this environment, you should be thankful if you still have an income coming in, because we continue to see mass layoffs all over the nation.
Nike announced a new round of layoffs Thursday affecting approximately 1,400 employees across the organization, mostly concentrated in its technology department.
In a note from COO Venkatesh Alagirisamy, the company said the layoffs were part of Nike’s broader “Win Now” turnaround strategy aiming to reshape its technology team, modernize its Air manufacturing, move some of its Converse Footwear operations and integrate its materials supply chain work into its footwear and apparel supply chain teams.
Trump Disapproval Rate Hits Career-High – War And Rising Costs Take Toll
Monday, May 04, 2026 – 07:45 AM
Though tempered by the prospect of additional GOP gerrymandering of House districts in the wake of a pivotal Supreme Court decision, Democrats’ hopes for a rout of Republicans in the approaching midterm elections are rising after a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that President Trump’s disapproval rating is now the highest of either of his two terms in office. Trump’s decision to launch a war on Iran is taking a toll — voters are not only dismayed by his handling of Iran, but also dissatisfied with his work on the economy, which is itself being harmed by the war.
In a survey of US adults taken in the last week of April, 62% said they disapprove of his general performance in the Oval Office. A whopping 76% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living and 66% disapprove of what he’s done with Iran. A majority of Americans surveyed expressed disapproval of his handling of every issue covered by the survey.
While 85% of Republicans approve of his performance, the share who strongly approve fell to 45% — that’s down 8% since September and is a new Trump low. Perhaps more importantly, his approval among Republican-leaning independents is also at a new low of 56%. Overall, just 25% of independents approve of his performance.
Trump also scored terribly on some personal attributes. For example, 71% said the descriptors “honest and trustworthy” are not applicable to Trump, while 67% said Trump does not “carefully consider important decisions.” Meanwhile, 59% said he lacks the “mental sharpness” required of his position.
The poll provides a little insight into the upcoming midterm races. Today, Republicans have a slim, 3-seat margin of control of the House of Representatives. Asked if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican candidate if the House election were held today, 49% said they would for a Democrat, compared to 44% who would choose a Republican. At the same point in the 2022 midterms, that question yielded a 42-42 tie, with the GOP proceeding to win the House when votes were cast six months later, securing a 222 – 213 margin in seats (a 9-seat pickup for the Republicans). As for intended turnout, 79% of registered Democrats say they are “absolutely certain” they’ll vote, compared to 72% of Republicans — a 7-point improvement on the GOP turnout expectation recorded in a February survey.
Looking at the big picture, 67% of Americans said the country is moving in the wrong direction. Here, there’s a vast difference among parties: 94% of Democrats felt that way, compared to 25% of Republicans. As a general caveat, we’ll note that — since more and more Americans identify as independent — party results are growing less meaningful. A hefty 78% of independents say the country is heading south.
Finally, the poll had some incidental insights for those looking ahead to the 2028 presidential race. While participants weren’t asked about that contest, they were asked to rate the job performance of various Trump administration officials, including two potential GOP contenders: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. They came out with similar approval ratings — 35% for Vance and 33% for Rubio — but Vance had a 48% disapproval rating, compared to 40% for Rubio. The remainder of respondents had no opinion.
The Cigna Group, one of the country’s largest health services and insurance firms, is joining others, including Aetna and UnitedHealthcare, in divesting its individual health exchange business.
By the end of 2026, Cigna Group will no longer offer insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as “Obamacare,” the company said during its April 30 earnings call.
According to its first-quarter earnings report, as of March 31, the company’s individual exchange business had 369,000 members in individual and family plans.
“We did not make this decision lightly, and appreciate the importance of ensuring patients have continuity through the transition,” Brian Evanko, Cigna Group’s president, chief operating officer, and incoming CEO, said during the earnings call.
“Looking to the future, there’s no question that the status quo in healthcare is unsustainable. Costs continue to rise, as does demand for healthcare services, an untenable equation,” he said.
“We will support members through their open enrollment transitions into 2027.”
Cigna’s decision comes after other health insurance companies, such as CVS Health and UnitedHealthcare, divested insurance business under the ACA.
In its first-quarter 2025 earnings report, released on Feb. 10, CVS Health announced that it was exiting its individual exchange business, where its health insurance arm, Aetna, independently operates ACA plans, beginning in 2026.
Years earlier, UnitedHealthcare said in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission in December 2016 that its Employer and Individual program would participate in individual public exchanges in only three states in 2017, a sharp reduction from 34 states in 2016.
At the beginning of this year, the Alliance of Safety-net Hospitals predicted that expiring tax credits for buying health insurance under ACA exchanges could affect nearly 4.8 million people in 2026, as the cost of such plans continues to escalate.
Evanko said Cigna’s decision to vacate the individual healthcare business now is necessary in order to support the firm’s strategic direction for the future. This will allow the insurer to focus its efforts on enhancing customer service with streamlined pharmacy services and additional system improvements.
Evanko noted that over the years, Cigna has continued to add or subtract from its portfolio as needed to position its core healthcare business for sustainable growth.
Last year, Cigna divested its group life and disability business, touting the recent sale of its Medicare businesses.
“Divesting each of these assets enabled greater focus and investment in the remaining businesses within our portfolio, supporting our forward-looking growth path,” he noted.
However, in 2025, Cigna acquired CarepathRx, a pharmacy service dealing with more than 40 health systems and 1,000 hospitals. Last year, Cigna also invested in Shields Health Solutions, which allows it to partner with hospitals and health systems serving patients with complex needs or requiring specialty medications.
Cigna’s first-quarter earnings of $68.52 billion outpaced market expectations of $66.2 billion. Its earnings per share of $7.79 also exceeded the forecasted $7.61.
However, the company’s shares declined by 2.64 percent on May 1, closing at $282.90.
Going forward, Evanko said the insurer plans to continue embracing data and modern technology to improve customer satisfaction and offer more personalized services.
Evanko noted that Cigna has also introduced Signature, its new rebate-free pharmacy benefits model.
According to Evanko, high-cost branded prescriptions represent about 10 percent of all prescriptions nationwide, but nearly 90 percent of total drug spending. The new Signature model is designed with the patient at the center, and its Price Assure capacity guarantees consumers the lowest possible out-of-pocket costs when filling their prescriptions.
Cigna expects the Signature model to become standard in 2028 and for at least 50 percent of its Evernorth Pharmacy Benefit Services members to be enrolled in Signature by the end of 2028.
Can The GOP Oust Thune To Get The SAVE America Act Passed?
Monday, May 04, 2026 – 09:15 AM
In 2024, voters handed the Republican Party a trifecta in Washington – the White House, the House, the Senate – and yet one of the most broadly popular pieces of election-integrity legislation in recent memory is collecting dust in the upper chamber.
The SAVE America Act would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote in federal elections and mandate photo identification to cast a ballot. It has already passed the House, and polls show that voters across party lines, and even racial lines, support it. It reportedly has the votes to pass in the Senate, but it can’t break the 60-vote threshold to end the filibuster. Republicans have called for nuking the filibuster to get it passed, but even that won’t happen because Senate Majority Leader John Thune won’t pick a fight.
Thune’s position on the issue is rather passive. “The votes aren’t there, one, to nuke the filibuster,” Thune said, presenting the math as immovable fact rather than a leadership challenge. “I’m the person who has to deliver sometimes the not-so-good news that the math doesn’t add up, but those are the facts and there’s no getting around it.” Even if true, he hasn’t mounted any visible pressure campaign on fence-sitters. No arm-twisting. No caucus discipline. No public strategy to persuade reluctant senators.
Democrats, by contrast, are marching in lockstep against the SAVE America Act. Even John Fetterman-who’s broken with his party on Israel, immigration, and the war in Iran-has fallen in line here. That kind of discipline doesn’t happen by accident. Democratic leadership knows how to hold its caucus together, and when it decides to oppose something, it makes sure everyone sticks to the script.
Thune, by contrast, seems content to wave the flight of surrender on the SAVE America Act. For a majority leader with a mandate from both the White House and the voters, that posture is increasingly difficult to defend.
The frustration on the right is real and growing. Unified Republican control of Washington was supposed to break the logjam on issues exactly like this one – legislation that is popular, straightforward, and central to election integrity. Instead, grassroots conservatives are watching their agenda strangled by Democrat obstruction and Republican spinelessness.
That raises a serious question: Should Thune be replaced with a more effective Republican as Majority Leader? Replacing leaders isn’t unheard of. In fact, former Rep. Matt Gaetz pulled off exactly this in the House in 2023 – filing a motion to vacate and forcing a floor vote that ended Kevin McCarthy’s speakership in a matter of days.
One member, one motion, and the speaker was gone.
But the Senate doesn’t work that way. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who has been among Thune’s more pointed critics, explained to a user on X that the Senate doesn’t have the same mechanism for removing leadership as the House does. “In the House of Representatives, a tiny number of lawmakers can oust the speaker – at any time. That feature is unique to the House. In the Senate GOP, we don’t even have a rule or procedure for replacing a leader in the middle of a two-year term.”
Lee acknowledged that any five senators can technically force a conference meeting, but quickly threw cold water on the idea that this amounts to any meaningful action. “It is true that under our rules, any five senators can call for a meeting of the entire conference at any time. But in practice, that kind of meeting tends not to materialize unless a solid majority of the conference wants it to happen,” he explained. And even if such a meeting were called and actually held, the obstacles would multiply from there. “To pursue the outcome you’re suggesting, one would have to use that meeting to propose a new procedure for a mid-term leadership swap, and that – at a minimum – would require a majority of the conference to support it. For a whole host of reasons – including the fact that Senator Thune is beloved by colleagues and very popular within the conference – the odds of that happening are literally 0 in 100,000,” Lee concluded.
Thune isn’t going anywhere, and the SAVE America Act remains stuck in limbo. All the while, the clock on the 119th Congress keeps ticking.
The DJTA declined in early trading on Friday due to a WSJ report that Spirit Airlines would shut down because bailout talks with the US government failed.
Fangs rallied sharply in early NYSE trading on Friday due to Apple’s 6.45% surge. US bonds rallied moderately in early trading Gasoline and oil declined moderately on the latest hope of an Iran peace deal. Precious metals rallied modestly. Activity was rather lackluster.
Apple hit a peak of 287.22 at 10:13 ET and rolled over. Apparently retail traders got too jiggy on Apple’s results and pro traders let them have it.
ESMs vacillated between small gains and moderate gains until they broke higher at 8:10 ET. After a modest retreat that ended near 8:45 ET ESMs exploded higher on trader buying for the Friday and start of May rallies. ESMs hit a high of 7300.75 at 10:20 ET. They then declined sharply on this CNN report:
IRAN DISTRUSTS U.S. AS TALKS STALL One Iranian source told CNN that Tehran could see talks restarting if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The US has made it clear that Iran should let any ships pass through the strait unconditionally; it’s not known whether the latest proposal from Iran goes that far… https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/01/world/live-news/iran-war-news?post-id=cmon19sa900003b6uxo9fqxel
Iran International’s @Alighazizade: The IRGC believes it will not lose on the battlefield. The Americans and Israelis also believe they will achieve greater gains on the battlefield. When both sides demand war, the occurrence of war is inevitable.
After hitting 7272.00 at 11:02 ET, ESMs bounced to 7295.75 at 11:50 ET. They then fell on this:
Trump: I am pleased to announce that, based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars and Trucks coming into the United States. The Tariff will be increased to 25%... if they produce Cars and Trucks in U.S.A. Plants, there will be NO TARIFF. Many Automobile and Truck Plants are currently under construction, with over 100 Billion Dollars being invested, A RECORD in the History of Car and Truck Manufacturing. These Plants, staffed with American Workers, will be opening soon —There has never been anything like what is happening in America today!…
Trump Threatens to Withdraw U.S. Troops From Italy and Spain as Europe Rift Widens “Why shouldn’t I? Italy has not been of any help to us, and Spain has been horrible. Absolutely horrible,” he replied, doubling down on his argument that NATO allies have not supported the U.S. during the Iran war. “We helped them [Europe] with Ukraine… but when we needed them, they were not there. We have to remember that.”… (After the close, the Pentagon said 5k US troops would be withdrawn.) https://time.com/article/2026/05/01/trump-threatens-to-withdraw-us-troops-italy-spain-europe-iran-war/
Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz @bundeskanzler on Sunday: The United States is and will remain Germany‘s most important partner in the North Atlantic Alliance. We share a common goal: Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.
@AJENews: The US Treasury says it has issued new Iran-related sanctions that target around 30 individuals and entities.
@USTreasury: Today, as part of Economic Fury, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control designated three Iranian foreign currency exchange houses and their associated front companies. Collectively, Iranian exchange houses facilitate billions of dollars in foreign currency transactions each year. Because Iran primarily settles its oil sales in Chinese yuan, these exchange houses play a critical role in converting oil revenues into currencies that are more readily useable by the Iranian military and its partners and proxies. 12:18 PM · May 1, 2026
@SecScottBessent: Iran is the head of the snake for global terrorism, and under @POTUS’ leadership, Treasury is moving aggressively, through Economic Fury, to sever the Iranian military’s financial lifelines. We will relentlessly target the regime’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds, and pursue anyone enabling Tehran’s attempts to evade sanctions. 12:19 PM · May 1, 2026
Trump: Iran Wants to Make a Deal, I’m Not Satisfied – BBG 12:23 ET Trump: We made strides in talks with Iran, but I’m not sure we’re going to get to a deal. 12:25 ET
Trump: “We’ll see what happens. Iran wants to make a deal because they have no military left, essentially, and they want to make a deal, but I’m not satisfied with it.” https://x.com/nicksortor/status/2050250716074201452
ESMs sank to 7266.00 at 12:47 ET on the above negative reports. ESMS then bounced up to 7283.75 at 13:53 ET. Selling returned; ESMs sank to 7259.00 at 14:46 ET. The late rally took ESMs to 7277.00 at 15:26 ET. Traders then dumped for the weekend; ESMs sank to 7255.75 at 16:01 ET.
@IranIntl_En: “The US and its regional agents are preparing for several major assassinations and renewed bombings, and they are confident that no political, military or economic center will be targeted inside US territory,” a senior Iranian official said Friday. “If war breaks out again, the Islamic Republic and the Axis of Resistance must strike all targets with force. It cannot be that, every few weeks or months, assassinations and bombings are carried out in Iran while the leaders of infidelity and warmongers sit calmly and safely in their palaces, ordering fire without paying any price,” said Hassan Rahimpour Azghadi, a member of Iran’s Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution appointed by the Supreme Leader.
Positive aspects of previous session The NY Fang+ Index rallied sharply on Apple and the AI Bubble. USMs were +9/32 at the NYSE close. Oil and gasoline declined moderately.
Negative aspects of previous session Ex-Fangs and AI-related issues, stocks declined – No Friday or Start of May Rallies
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is there anything besidesw AI delusions underpinning equities?
First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7243.99 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7272.52; 7229.32
@Reuters: Charles Lieber, a former Harvard scientist convicted of lying to US authorities about payments from China, is now running a Chinese state-funded brain-computer interface lab in Shenzhen – Charles Lieber, 67, is among the world’s leading researchers in brain-computer interfaces. The technology has shown promise in treating conditions such as ALS and restoring movement in paralyzed patients. But it also has potential military applications: Scientists at China’s People’s Liberation Army have investigated brain interfaces as a way to engineer super soldiers by boosting mental agility and situational awareness, according to the U.S. Defense Department… https://www.reuters.com/world/china/convicted-former-harvard-scientist-rebuilds-brain-computer-lab-china-2026-04-30/
@C_3C_3: 1970: 8 welfare programs; 2026: 80+ welfare programs 1970: 1 million illegals; 2026: 40+ million illegals 1970: $371 billion debt; 2026: $38 trillion debt The destruction of America. Incentive drives behavior…
@libsoftiktok: Fun fact of the day! Illegal aliens contribute about $31 billion in tax revenue per year, according to a report by FAIR. But they cost Americans an estimated $182 billion per year. Never let a Democrat claim illegals aren’t a drain on the economy. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/2050279762937970690
Zero Hedge: Goldman Warns Crash Risk Spiking as Market Breadth Plummets To Dot Com Bubble Lows – “Sharp declines in market breadth have historically preceded larger-than-average S&P 500 drawdowns in the subsequent 6-12 months. ” (Berkshire Hathaway now has $397B in cash.)
@infraa_: Over the past 50yrs, the stock market has increased 9x faster than the average hourly wage Over the past 20yrs, the stock market has increased 3x faster than the average hourly wage Over the past 10yrs, the stock market has increased 2.4x faster than the average hourly wage https://x.com/infraa_/status/2050925515641594107
@Osint613: Iran submitted a 14-point counterproposal to the U.S. 9-point offer through Pakistani mediation, per Tasnim.The U.S. proposed a 2-month ceasefire. Iran wants all issues resolved in 30 days. Demands include U.S. military withdrawal from Iran’s periphery, lifting the naval blockade, unfreezing assets, compensation, sanctions relief, and an end to fighting on all fronts including Lebanon. Iran says it awaits a formal U.S. response.
Iran offers uranium enrichment freeze in new three-stage framework to end war Iran’s draft plan, reported by Al Jazeera, includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, freezing uranium enrichment for up to 15 years and launching a regional security dialogue in exchange for sanctions relief and an end to the blockade… After that period ends, it would be permitted to resume enriching uranium at a low civilian-grade level of 3.6%, under a principle of “zero stockpiling,” meaning no enriched uranium inventory… https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/05/03/iran-offers-uranium-enrichment-freeze-in-new-three-stage-framework-to-end-war/
Trump told reporters on Saturday that he is reviewing Iran’s 14-point peace proposal.
Axios’ @BarakRavid: The Iranian proposal… sets a one-month deadline for negotiations on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end the U.S. naval blockade and permanently end the war in Iran and in Lebanon. Per the Iranian proposal, only after such a deal is reached, another month of negotiations would be launched to try and reach a deal on the nuclear program, the two sources said.
Trump says new strikes possible if Iran “misbehaves” – Axios
Trump Says US to Start Guiding Trapped Ships Though Hormuz – BBG 18:23 ET
Trump: Countries from all over the World, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly, and violently, for all to see, have asked the United States if we could help free up their Ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders! For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business. Again, these are Ships from areas of the World that are not in any way involved with that which is currently taking place in the Middle East. I have told my Representatives to inform them that we will use best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait. In all cases, they said they will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation, and everything else. This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance. This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran. Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully…
@gbrew24: Iranians propose a plan that starts with the strait gradually reopening. US takes the proposal, sends a response. Shortly thereafter, Trump announces plan to guide neutral ships out of the strait. Trump’s message does not reject (or accept) Iranian proposal but notes that talks are moving in a positive direction.
WSJ’s @alexbward: President Trump did not announce an escort mission just now, US officials say. Project Freedom, earlier called the Maritime Freedom Construct, is a coordination cell. It’ll tell US-flagged ships and others the safe lanes to navigate the Strait of Hormuz (aka no mines, etc.)
@IranIntl_En: A member of Iranian parliament’s national security committee says any US intervention in Hormuz shipping would violate the ceasefire.“The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric,” Ebrahim Azizi posted on X after President Trump’s escort plan.
Today – Yet another ‘Iran peace deal is at hand’ hype has appeared despite, once again, conflicting reports. Traders want to be long for the Monday Rally and the AI Bubble. But oil and gasoline are soaring; US diesel fuel is near $6/gallon. This will impact the economy and the cost of goods (AKA inflation). Add in regular gasoline over $5, and you have DJT looking for an exit ramp plus, once again, intervening in Sunday night trading to boost equity futures and lower oil/gasoline.
ESMs and NQMs opened sharply higher as oil moved sharply lower on Sunday night; but ESMs and NGMs quickly reversed to losses. Traders are NOT buying DJT’s latest Sunday night scheme. ESMs are +1.75; NGMs are -21.50; USMs are +1/32; and gas is +$1.89; oil is -$0.03 at 20:01 ET.
GameStop offers to buy eBay for $56 billion ($125/share) – WSJ
Expected Economic Data: Mar Factory Orders 0.5%; March Durable Goods 0.8%, Ex-Trans 0.9%
S&P Index 50-day MA: 6822; 100-day MA: 6858; 150-day MA: 6820; 200-day MA: 6728 DJIA 50-day MA: 47,860;100-day MA: 48,411; 150-day MA: 47,908; 200-day MA: 47,208 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (7230.12 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6391.57 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7106.24 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7220.22 triggers a sell signal
Various Dems over the weekend called Trump and his supporters Nazis and other hate-inducing names; others called for Trump’s death. This will continue until Dems and/or the MSM are penalized.
Outrage as California vice mayor posts vile ‘death threat’ aimed at President Trump: ‘He needs to resign’https://trib.al/Bl5W1fm
@Rightanglenews: A Pennsylvania Democrat senate candidate Raymond Chandler has been arrested after leaving multiple voicemails threatening to kill Senator John Fetterman’s 13 year old daughter and President Trump. This is who they are. https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/2050944902628851893
Once again, nurses, teachers, and others have posted death threats wishes on Trump even though others have lost jobs for doing the same. Only acute TDS can explain this phenomenon/risky behavior!
@ClayTravis: Michigan Democrat (Mallory McMorrow, State Senator) says she sees similarities between Trump administration and Nazi Germany. Save all of these for when the next Democrat tries to kill Trump because he’s a Nazi and Democrats claim to have no idea where he could have gotten the Nazi idea: https://x.com/ClayTravis/status/2051013485102817532
@bennyjohnson: Acting AG Todd Blanche confirms the DOJ has more evidence against Comey than just his ‘8647’ post: “This is not just about a single Instagram post. This is about a body of evidence the grand jury collected over 11 months.” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/2050949464215462392
@CollinRugg: Jeffrey Epstein purportedly wrote a suicide note before he allegedly killed himself, which is currently under seal by a federal judge. According to the New York Times, the note was found by Epstein’s cellmate just weeks *before* he died.Cellmate Nicholas Tartaglione says the note said, ‘time to say goodbye,’ but it is unclear what else it contained.“The Times has not seen the note and could not find it in the Epstein files. A [DOJ] spokeswoman said the agency had not seen it,” the NYT reported. “A cryptic two-page chronology in the records describes how the note became tangled up in Mr. Tartaglione’s messy legal case. The chronology says that Mr. Tartaglione’s lawyers authenticated the note, though it does not explain how,” the NYT continued. (If true, why didn’t US officials, including AG Bill Barr take precautions to stop the suicide?)
@FoxNews: Security footage from the WHCA Dinner appears to show a K9 flagging Cole Allen as suspicious moments before the alleged attack, only for the dog to be pulled back by its handler. Seconds later, Allen allegedly charges through security with a shotgun in hand, shoots a Secret Service agent, and is tackled before reaching President Trump. https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2050208427473871333
Dem Rep Suggests Hegseth Could Be Executed for War Crimes Like Nazi Sub-Captains In a stunning escalation of partisan rhetoric, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) declared on national television that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is “guilty” of war crimes — and compared U.S. military operations against drug-smuggling boats to the actions of Nazi submarine captains executed after World War II… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dem-rep-suggests-hegseth-could-be-executed-war-crimes-nazi-sub-captains
From the beginning, the experts and doctors on USAWatchdog warned of the coming disease, death, disability and disaster that the CV19 bioweapon vax would cause. All the while, the public was told by the medical establishment and the Lying Legacy Media the injections were safe, effective and you needed this to survive the CV19 pandemic. ALL a total lie, and with 270 million people getting the CV19 injections in the US alone, it’s far too big to keep covering up. The avalanche of data now pouring out is causing everyone to wake up to the evil that has been done to them with the CV19 injections. Epidemiologist Nic Hulscher at the McCullough Foundation is responsible for researching and publishing much of the stomach-churning news waking up the public to what has been done to them. Hulscher says, “The awakening has begun. In fact, a recent Rasmussen survey came out a few months ago and found 56%, or the majority of Americans, now believe that the Covid shots caused mass deaths. So, there are large numbers of casualties. It appears the majority has already woken up. Only about 15% to 20% are still getting booster shots.”
There are multiple documented health problems caused by the CV19 vax. Hulscher says, “We now have four independent data sets across three countries indicating that the Covid shots resulted in a cancer epidemic. It spans 350 million people in these data sets. . .. Brain tumors were up 19%. Colon cancer was up 19%. Then we have stomach, small intestine cancer, ovarian cancer, breast cancer, and all of these cancers surged between 2021 and 2023 (latest data available). Then we have the CDC mortality records in the United States. In those records, we see over 138,000 excess cancer deaths in the United States since the CV19 vaccines rolled out. That’s 138,000 more cancer deaths than normal. This is likely due to the CV19 mRNA vax injections. Lastly, we have two other countries, Italy and South Korea, with two studies with 8.7 million people where they compare vaccinated to unvaccinated, and the vaccinated suffered increased risk of seven major cancers. . .. This is very worrisome, and it is now undeniable.”
There is some good news on the cancer treatment front, but the medical community will not tell you about this. There are new peer-reviewed studies that prove Ivermectin and Mebendazole have dramatic results on shrinking tumors and killing cancer. Hulscher says, “Everybody who thinks this is some sort of false thing, and it can’t possibly help (fight) cancer, you are completely wrong. It’s important to start off with the fact that there are literally over a hundred studies now looking at Ivermectin and Mebendazole in the laboratory. . .. It literally destroys, shrinks or eliminates some of these cancers by 14 distinct mechanisms. This is verified in the laboratory. So, it’s very real. It’s not false, and it’s not fake. We published the first and largest real world human study. We had 200 cancer patients. They had 20 types of cancers. 84% benefited in their cancer treatment. Chemotherapy is $111,000 a year on average. The Ivermectin and Mebendazole is a few grand, at most.”
In closing, Hulscher says the medical establishment covered up data warning of the huge problems coming from the CV19 shots. He thinks it was intentional as a very effective depopulation tool. Hulscher says, “This is a major, major catastrophe. This is worse than major world wars, worse than hundreds of Hiroshima nuclear attacks. I mean it’s a travesty.”
There is much more in the 36-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with epidemiologist Nicolas Hulscher of Focal Points as he helps awaken the public to the nightmare of the CV19 bioweapon injections.
harveyorganblog.com 
