EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,555.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/05/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 05/07/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 33
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 6
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 7
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 64
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 18
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 133
905 C ADM 5
TOTAL: 133 133
MONTH TO DATE: 3,326
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2026: 133 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 13,300 OZ or 0.4136 TONNES
total notices so far: 3326 contracts FOR 332,600 OZ OR 10.345 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 145 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.725 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4929 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 24.645 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 132 CONTRACTS FOR 13,200 OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 30.455 MILLION OZ/.//
SUMMARY OF OUR MAY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 5.705 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 125 CONTRACTS/625,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 30.455 MILLION OZ//
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27800 OZ/ (0.8646 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 132 CONTRACTS OR 13200 OZ (.4105 TONNES)/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 13.032 TONNES OF GOLD.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 132 CONTRACTS/13,200 OZ// 0.4105 TONNES//NEW STANDING IS NOW ADVANCES TO 13.032 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 16.177 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONG
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A TINY 38 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 96,932 ADVANCING A BIT FROM ITS ALL TIME LOW SET MAY 1.
EFP ISSUANCE 18 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 18 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 34 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 18 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 56 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.21
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.28 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $0.21
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MAY 6 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 48.01 PTS OR 1.17%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 315.17 PTS OR 1.22%
Nikkei CLOSED
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.72%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.8134
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8113 Oil DOWN TO 98.55 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 103,67 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP (6.8134) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8113 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 1619 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 367,932 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET LATE LAST MONTH AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING TUESDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT ALSO SOME SPECULATORS STILL GOING TO THE SHORT SIDE WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS APRIL CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $33.75).
WE THUS HAD A SMALL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 234 CONTRACTS (OR 0.7278 TONNES) WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.EQUATING TO 1385 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS TOTALLING 109 CONTRACTS FOR 10,900 OZ OR 0.3390 TONNES OF GOLD. AS BEFORE THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: ONE ISSUANCE SO FAR FOR 109 CONTRACTS OR 10,900 OZ OR 0.3390 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: ONE ISSUANCE SO FAR FOR 109 CONTRACTS, 10900 OZ OR 0.3390 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MAY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A SMALLL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 234 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE ($33.75). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MAY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1232 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS NOW IN FULL FORCE DURING LAST WEEK DURING LONDON COMEX AND LBMA/OTC OPTION EXPIRY WEEK!! (INITIAL MAY CONTRACT MONTH)
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS FIRST ISSUANCE FOR 0.3390 TONNES.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 13,200 OZ (.4105 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 10,900 OZ OR 0.3390 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 13.032 TONNESS
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MAY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $33.75)
WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI //
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
TUESDAY NIGHT//WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $33.75
WE HAD3100 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 234 CONTRACTS OR 23400 OZ OR 0.7278 TONNES
INITIAL GOLD COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 6 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 2 i) JPMorgan: 1929.06 oz (60 kilobars) ii) Out of Manfra: 76,126.722 oz total withdrawal: 78,055.782 oz or 2.42 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 133 CONTRACTS OR 13300 OZ 0.4136 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 755 Contracts 75,500 OZ 2.348TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 3326 notices 332600 oz 10.345 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 1
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 2
i) JPMorgan: 1929.06 oz
(60 kilobars)
ii) Out of Manfra: 76,126.722 oz
total withdrawal: 78,055.782 oz or 2.42 tonnes
xxxx
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI STANDS AT 888 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 131 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 1 CONTRACT SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 132 CONTRACTS OR 13,200 OZ (0.4105 TONNES) UNDEREWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI LOST BY 3883 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 254,335
JULY LOST 106 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 999.
We had 133 contracts filed for today representing 13,300oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1 contract(s) of which 133 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 18 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3,326) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (888 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 133 x 100 oz per contract) equals 408,100 OZ OR (12.693 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our first exchange for risk issuance for 10,900 oz or 0.3390 tonnes//new standing for gold/May again advances to 13.032 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3,326) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(XXCXX CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 133 x 100 oz per contract) equals 408,100 OZ OR (12.693 Tonnes of gold) plus we must add our first exchange for risk issuance of 10,900 oz or 0.3390 tonnes/new standing advances to 13.032 tonness
new total of gold standing in MAY ADVANCES TO 13.032 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY 13.032 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
confirmed volume TUESDAY confirmed 103,620 really awful!!/dreadful many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
the number provided do not match from yesterday!!!
total pledged gold: 1,987,079.264 oz 61.806 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,987,079.264 tonnes oz 61.806 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 29,137,914.426oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,827,899.555 OZ 492.314 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 13,310,014.871 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,840,820 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
430.507 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 6
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 4 entries i) Out of CNT 600,005.009 oz ii) Out of Delaware 18,028,438 oz iii) Out of jPMorgan 639,483.900 oz iv) Out of Stonex 777,164.770 oz total withdrawal: 2034,732.117 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 0 ENTRIES |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 145 CONTRACT(S) (0.725 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1162Contracts (5.810 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 4929 contracts 24.645 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 ENTRIES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
4 entries
i) Out of CNT 600,005.009 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 18,028,438 oz
iii) Out of jPMorgan 639,483.900 oz
iv) Out of Stonex 777,164.770 oz
total withdrawal: 2034,732.117 oz
the comex is being drained of silver
adjustments:1
a) CNT: dealer to customer; 51,734.270 oz
TUESDAY volume: 28,206 oz// AWFUL
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 79.541 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 312.752 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2026 OI: 1307 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 89 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 36 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON ON TUESDAY SO WE FINALLY GAINED OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 125 CONTRACTS OR 625,000 OZ WHERE THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK TRYING TO TAKE SILVER DELIVERY OVER AT THE COMEX RATHER THAN TROTTING OVER TO LONDON.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 88 CONTRACTS UP TO 2171 OI CONTRACTS
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 293 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 72,568 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 145 or 725,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume TUESDAY; 28,206 poor
AND NOW MAY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4928 X5,000 oz = 24.645 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1307) AND the number of notices served upon today (145 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2026 contract month: (4929 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (1307) minus number of notices served upon today (145)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY..contract month equating to 30.032 MILLION OZ.+
NEW STANDING ADVANCES T0: 40.032 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 79.551 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 140.287/312.752 million: 44.83
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $124.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.718 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.05TONNES
MAY 5 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 4 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $106.65 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
APRIL 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.142 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.195 TONNES
APRIL 29/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $45.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $85.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 27/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.91 TONNES
APRIL 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP 26.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 11.90TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.783 TONNES
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 1/2026/WITH GOLD UP $134.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.276 TONNES
MAR 31/2026/WITH GOLD UP $119.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.133 TONNES
MAR 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.143 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.562
MAR 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.55 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 26/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $213.05 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.580 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42
MAR 25/2026/WITH GOLD UP $155.30 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.300 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.000
MAR 24/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.286 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.705
MAR 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $165.65 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.149 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.991
MAR 20/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $39,55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.855 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.135
MAR 19/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.99
MAR 18/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $111.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.144 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.564 TONNES
MAR 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.857 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// /// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1070.708 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1034.050 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $3.75: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.724 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.21: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.05: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP $2.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.905 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.338 MILLION OZ
APRIL 30 WITH SILVER UP $2.03: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.991 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.243MILLION OZ
APRIL 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.95: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.39: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 24 WITH SILVER UP 0.92: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,23MILLION OZ
APRIL 23WITH SILVER DOWN $2.35: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.489 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488,773MILLION OZ
APRIL 22 WITH SILVER UP 1.43: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262MILLION OZ
aPRIL 21 WITH SILVER DOWN 3.71: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17 WITH SILVER UP $3.09: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.900 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.132 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.477 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.579 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1 WITH SILVER UP $1.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND WITHDRAWAL OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.079 MILLION OZ
MAR 31 WITH SILVER UP $4.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT WITHDRAWAL OF 3.893 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.532 MILLION OZ
MAR 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.74: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.425 MILLION OZ
MAR 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.75: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 25 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.15: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MASSIVE AND FRAUDULENT DEPOSIT OF 10.505 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.776 MILLION OZ
MAR 23 WITH SILVER UP $0.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.92: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.490 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.271 MILLION OZ
MAR 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $6.22: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9444 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.761 MILLION OZ
MAR 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.36: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 1.087 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.792 MILLION OZ.
MAR 17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.351 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.. ./ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.705 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 484.130 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
JESSE COLUMBO\
JOHN RUBINO
Perfect Day: Gold/Silver Jump While Miners Report Record Cash Flow
Lots of double-digit % gains
| John RubinoMay 6 |
The payoff was worth the wait.
Gold and silver are spiking today, just as the miners report best-ever Q1 numbers. The result: Multiple near-double-digit percentage stock price gains. For example, major gold/silver producer Pan American Silver more than doubled earnings and cash flow year over year in Q1…
… and is now in a position to reward its shareholders. From the quarterly report:
ENHANCED SHAREHOLDER RETURN FRAMEWORK
On May 5, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved an enhanced shareholder return framework (the “Shareholder Return Framework”) targeting the return of 35% to 40% of annual Attributable Free Cash Flow(1)(2) to shareholders through a combination of dividends and common share repurchases under Pan American’s NCIB that began on March 6, 2026. Based on the Shareholder Return Framework target and assuming that the current strong free cash flow generation continues, Pan American anticipates returning up to $1 billion to shareholders in 2026.
Under the Shareholder Return Framework for 2026, Pan American expects to pay aggregate dividends of $305 million during the year, paid in equal quarterly installments (currently equivalent to $0.18 per common share per quarter). Excess Attributable Free Cash Flow(1)(2) that is not distributed through dividends will be allocated to common share repurchases, at the Company’s discretion, through the NCIB. Please see the news release dated May 5, 2026 for further details.
Investors like what they’re seeing:
Happy Portfolio
Needless to say, our Portfolio is having a good day. Stay tuned for behind-the-paywall notes on some of the most compelling stories.
END
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 270 and 269
LONDON PAUL//MUST VIEW
5. COMMODITY REPORT/
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 48.01 PTS OR 1.17%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 315.17 PTS OR 1.22%
Nikkei CLOSED
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.72%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.8134
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8113 Oil DOWN TO 98.55 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 103,67 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP (6.8134) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8113 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.8134
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.8113
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 315.17 PTS OR 1.22%
2. Nikkei closed
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 98.55
BRENT; 103.67
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 97,71/// EURO RISES TO 1.1769 UP 54 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.502 UP 0 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 155.92… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.719 UP 0 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.8134 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.8113
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.9860 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.775// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.418%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.718%
3j Gold at $4695.20 //Silver at: 76.87 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 23/ 100 roubles/75.72
3m oil (WTI) into the 98 dollar handle for WTI and 103 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.92 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.506% UP 0 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.719 DOWN 0 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7783 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9159
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.348 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9444 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.892 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.23 UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.9560 DOWN 10 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.624 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.614 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.267 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Deja Vu All Over Again: Futures Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal Optimism, Tech Rally
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 08:28 AM
US equity futures are up big this morning and making fresh all time highs, led by tech companies, while oil prices and bond yields fell sharply on optimism that the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal. As of 8:00am Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.7% while those for the S&P 500 gained 1%, with both gauges set to build on record highs. Iran is evaluating a new proposal from the US to end their near 10-week war, according to an Axios report. If Tehran accepts the terms, it will lead to a gradual reopening of Hormuz and lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports. Brent tanked 11% to below $98 a barrel. That comes as US gasoline prices topped $4.50 a gallon for the first time since July 2022. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped eight basis points to 4.35%. In the UK, the rate on two-year UK gilts tumbled 17 basis points. The dollar hit the lowest level since February, while gold topped $4,700 an ounce. Bitcoin rose for a seventh straight day. US economic data calendar slate includes April ADP employment change at 8:15am. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:30am) and Goolsbee (1pm)
In premarket, most Mag 7 names are higher: Alphabet (GOOGL) climbs 1.6% after the Information reported that AI startup Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years (Amazon +1%, Apple -0.5%, Nvidia +2.5%, Meta +0.5%, Microsoft +0.1, Tesla +0.6%)
- Miners, cruise operators and airline companies gain, while energy and fertilizer stocks fall, after a report on the US and Iran nearing a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.
- Semiconductor, power equipment and data center stocks rally after solid results from Advanced Micro Devices and Super Micro — in a sign of robust end-to-end artificial intelligence-related demand.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rallies 19% after the chipmaker gave an outlook that is stronger than expected, a sign of robust AI-related demand.
- Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) sinks 16% after the medical device company posted sales for the first quarter that disappointed Wall Street. TD Cowen calls the report a “tough start to 2026.”
- Apollo Global (APO) rises 3% after the alternative asset manager eclipsed $1 trillion of assets under management on record first-quarter inflows and reported earnings that beat Wall Street estimates.
- Compass Inc. (COMP) gains 31% after the real estate brokerage platform reported first-quarter revenue that beat average analyst estimates. The firm’s second-quarter revenue forecast is ahead of consensus.
- CVS Health (CVS) rises 5% after the health insurer boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. The firm also posted adjusted profit and comparable sales for the first quarter that topped the average analyst estimate.
- Geo Group (GEO) gains 11% after the private correctional facilities company boosted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year, with the guidance beating the average analyst estimate.
- Klaviyo (KVYO) falls 18% after announcing Amanda Whalen will step down from her role as CFO. The application software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and the outlook was raised on key metrics.
- Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) rises 2% after reporting quarterly sales that beat Wall Street expectations, as higher prices and the company’s investments in its lagging brands helped boost North American sales.
- Primoris Services (PRIM) slumps 31% after the construction and engineering services company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
- Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) leaps 13% after the company reported improved margins and gave a profit forecast that suggested it’s controlling the costs of getting powerful AI servers into customers’ hands.
- TransMedics (TMDX) falls 21% after the medical equipment firm reported adjusted earnings per share that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. It also reaffirmed its revenue forecast for the full year.
- Uber Technologies (UBER) gains 9% after providing a better-than-expected forecast for bookings, signaling that robust demand from US commuters and travelers will offset impact from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Veracyte (VCYT) rises 14% after the diagnostics firm reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average Wall Street analyst estimate.
In other corporate news, Novo Nordisk’s new Wegovy obesity pill fueled sales in the first quarter and the drugmaker said this year’s proft and sales declines won’t be as bad as previously expected. BMW expects profitability to remain broadly stable this year as the automaker offsets a downturn in China with robust sales in Europe. Samsung reached a $1 trillion market valuation after shares more than quadrupled over the past year on booming demand for AI chips. And the FT reported that China’s main chip-sector investment fund is in discussions to lead a fundraising round for DeepSeek at a valuation of about $45 billion.
Risk assets soared and oil tumbled, as geopolitical and micro tailwinds fueled risk-on sentiment broadly across the market. On Geopolitics, Brent tanked 11% to below $98 a barrel following an Axios report that US & Iran are working on a memorandum that would set a framework for more nuclear talks (and said US expects Iranian responses on key points in the next 48 hours). Here are the details from the Axios report:
- A Pakistani source has confirmed that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memorandum to end their conflict, Reuters reports.
- US and Iran are reportedly closing in on one-page memo to end war, Axios reported citing officials; White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations.
- MoU details, as it stands: Declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations, which could occur in Geneva or Islamabad. Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment (at least 12-15 years). US agreeing to lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides lifting restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, to occur gradually during the 30-day negotiation.
- If talks collapsed, US forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
- Uranium Component: The duration of the moratorium is being actively negotiated. Sources suggest at least 12yrs and one suggesting 15yrs is likely; Iran sought five, the US wanted 20. Suggested that Iran would agree to its highly enriched uranium being removed from Iran, potentially to the US.
- Timeline: Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours. While nothing has been agreed upon, sources indicate this is the closest the parties have been to a deal since the war began.
- Issues: Some US officials remain sceptical that even an initial deal will be reached. Fractures within the Iranian leadership.
Separately, last night Trump paused “Project Freedom” in the Strait citing “great progress” towards an agreement.
“The market continues to price in de-escalation and an easing in supply constraints,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY. “The road ahead is bumpy, but the direction of travel seems clear.”
AI euphoria is also helping the rally. Alphabet is up in premarket trading after the Information reported Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years. AMD was priced for perfection ahead of results, but managed to deliver, with shares soaring after the chipmaker gave robust predictions for longer-term growth. That’s adding to nerves about how Nvidia will retain its grip on the AI processor market in the face of intense competition.
Meanwhile, looking under the hood, while both US stock benchmarks are set to extend Tuesday’s record highs, the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index hasn’t posted a new high since February. This thin leadership is raising “yellow flags” for Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider, while Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau also noted earlier that stocks seem “increasingly disconnected from signals coming from the rates and oil markets.”
In politics, voters in Ohio handily backed Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy’s bid to be the Republican nominee for governor, while Democrat Sherrod Brown will get another shot at returning to the Senate after being defeated in 2024. Ken Griffin said he plans to make Citadel’s Miami tower even bigger after New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani name-checked the billionaire in his pledge to charge more taxes on second homes.
In private credit, Oaktree Capital cut the value of one of its funds by almost 4% as the firm marked down its software assets. A New Mountain Capital private credit fund that sold almost half-a-billion-dollars of assets at a discount earlier this year and used some of the cash to scoop up beaten-down loans says the strategy is already paying off.
Elsewhere in geopolitics, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Iran to keep negotiating in pursuit of a lasting truce with the US, as he hosted Tehran’s top diplomat just days before Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing. The clash between Trump and Pope Leo XIV has flared up again, complicating a delicate diplomatic mission by Marco Rubio to the Vatican this week.
Looking at earnings, of the 375 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, 84% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 11% have missed.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 2.3% with breadth strong. Mining and automobile shares are leading gains, while energy and utilities stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
- The Stoxx 600 basic resources sector rallied as much as 4% as gold and copper edged higher after US President Donald Trump touted progress on a final agreement with Iran
- Novo Nordisk shares jump as much as 9.2%, the most since Dec. 23, after the Danish drugmaker raised its 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit
- Demant surges as much as 17%, the most since October 2008, after the firm delivers sales ahead of consensus expectations in the first quarter
- Pandora shares rise as much as 11%, continuing a rally from March’s 3.5-year low, after the Danish jewelry maker’s first-quarter Ebit margins beat estimates, partly due to a change in the timing of certain costs
- Kongsberg shares rise as much as 11%, their steepest jump since February, after the Norwegian defense technology firm posted what Morgan Stanley called strong results across all metrics
- Diageo shares gain 6.6% after the British maker of Johnnie Walker and Guinness reported organic net sales for the third quarter that beat analyst estimates and maintained its full-year guidance
- Vestas shares rise as much as 2% as the Danish wind turbine maker reported 1Q Ebit before significant items that beat the average analyst estimate
- Equinor declined as much as 6.3%, its biggest drop since April 17 after the energy company reported total revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
- Wolters Kluwer falls as much as 14%, the most since 2003, after 1Q results that were broadly in line but did little to resolve the AI debate that has weighed heavily on the stock
- Orsted shares drop 4.4% after the Danish wind farm operator reported 1Q Ebitda that beat the average analyst estimate, while after-tax profit missed
Tech optimism saw the Kospi hit another record high in APAC trade as Samsung joined the $1 trillion valuation club. Asian stocks jumped to a record, with technology shares leading gains after positive company forecasts reinforced confidence in continued growth tied to artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 2.6% to a record high, with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and MediaTek providing the biggest boosts. Equities in South Korea, Thailand and China led the advances, while Japan’s market was closed for a holiday. Chinese stocks posted gains after the market reopened after a five-day holiday, with tech shares leading the rally. The government estimated more than 1.5 billion passenger trips took place during the break, while box office grew to 758 million yuan ($111 million). Sentiment was also lifted by improvement in a private gauge of services activities in April. Investors will also keep their eyes on the expected summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump next week for potential signs of easing tensions.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is down 0.8% as expectations of a Fed hike by year-end have been fully unwound. The yen surged after a 4th consecutive intervention by the BOJ/MOF but a large portion of the initial dip in USD/JPY has retraced.
In rates, sovereign bonds are rallying around the world and treasuries hold a strong bid in early US session, with futures on session highs amid a slump in oil prices after Axios reported Washington and Tehran are working on a memorandum that would set a framework for further nuclear talks, with nothing agreed upon yet. Subsequent reports indicated Iran is evaluating a new US proposal to end the war. US front-end and intermediate yields dropped at least 10bp, long-end yields about 7bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 3bp-4bp; 10-year fell 9bp to 4.33%. Fed-dated OIS contracts flipped back to pricing in chance of a rate cut this year, with around 6bp of easing priced in for September, and trimmed pricing for a rate hike in 2027. Treasury quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am, with consensus expectation for unchanged coupon auction sizes, however some banks anticipate new forward guidance, shortening the time frame for stability from “at least the next several quarters” IG dollar issuance slate includes three deals so far. Six names priced $5.25 billion on Tuesday with issuers paying less than 2bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 7.2 times covered — nearly double the year-to-date average. At least two borrowers elected against moving forward
Measures of US corporate-credit risk improved in the opening minutes of trading, with the gauge for high-grade notes at its tightest in over two months. The environment coming into the US session was already positive for debt capital markets, with investment-grade spreads matching their tightest level since Feb. 20 on Tuesday and leveraged-loan prices at their highest level since then. Though there have been 15 high-grade bond sales to start the week, just $13.6 billion has been raised
In commodities, crude prices are sliding with Brent down over 9% and just below the $100/bbl mark. Spot gold and silver post respective gains of 3.4% and 6.5%. Bitcoin is higher by 0.7%.
US economic data calendar slate includes April ADP employment change at 8:15am. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:30am) and Goolsbee (1pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.9%,
- Nasdaq 100 mini +1.2%,
- Russell 2000 mini +1.5%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +2.2%,
- DAX +2.4%,
- CAC 40 +2.5%
- 10-year Treasury yield -7 basis points at 4.35%
- VIX -0.7 points at 16.72
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.7% at 1187.12,
- euro +0.7% at $1.1769
- WTI crude -6.6% at $95.52/barrel
Top Overnight News
- The White House believes it’s getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. Axios
- Trump posts: If Iran agrees to deal, the blockade of the Hormuz Strait will be lifted. “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. “
- Donald Trump earlier said he would pause US efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz as he seeks an agreement with Iran, citing “great progress.” The blockade on Iranian ports remains. BBG
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met w/his Iranian counterpart on Wed and called for a swift reopening of Hormuz. BBG
- China Is Still Supplying Drone Factories in Iran, Russia Despite U.S. Sanctions. Obscure Chinese companies are openly shipping dual-use goods such as engines and batteries, defying American controls. WSJ
- The US will implement its 25% tariffs on cars and trucks from the EU “relatively soon” if the bloc doesn’t swiftly ratify a long-delayed trade deal, the American ambassador to the bloc Andrew Puzder said. BBG
- China’s biggest state-backed semiconductor investment vehicle is in talks to lead the financing of DeepSeek’s first fundraising that could value the AI group at about $45bn. FT
- Novo shares jumped as its new Wegovy pill boosted sales, and the company guided to a smaller-than-expected revenue decline this year. The oral version had the best US launch of any GLP-1. BBG
- Alphabet outperformed its Magnificent Seven peers premarket after the Information reported that Anthropic plans to spend about $200 billion with Google over five years. BBG
- The yen hit a two-month high, spurring fresh intervention speculation. BBG
- While both US stock benchmarks are set to extend Tuesday’s records highs, the S&P500 Equal-Weight Index hasn’t posted a new high since February. BBG
Axios report on MOU between the US and Iran
- A Pakistani source has confirmed that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memorandum to end their conflict, Reuters reports.
- US and Iran are reportedly closing in on one-page memo to end war, Axios reported citing officials; White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations.
- MoU details, as it stands: Declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations, which could occur in Geneva or Islamabad. Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment (at least 12-15 years). US agreeing to lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides lifting restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, to occur gradually during the 30-day negotiation.
- If talks collapsed, US forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
- Uranium Component: The duration of the moratorium is being actively negotiated. Sources suggest at least 12yrs and one suggesting 15yrs is likely; Iran sought five, the US wanted 20. Suggested that Iran would agree to its highly enriched uranium being removed from Iran, potentially to the US.
- Timeline: Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours. While nothing has been agreed upon, sources indicate this is the closest the parties have been to a deal since the war began.
- Issues: Some US officials remain sceptical that even an initial deal will be reached. Fractures within the Iranian leadership.
Other Iran News
- US President Trump posted that Project Freedom will be paused for a short period to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed, blockade will remain in full effect.
- Journalist Mallick posted “…i would not be surprised if there is an incoming Iranian proposal to Washington via Islamabad, soon.”. Full post:”As what I understand, while the ball largely lies in Iranian court when it comes to US – Iran negotiations, i would not be surprised if there is an incoming Iranian proposal to Washington via Islamabad, soon.”.
- Iranian and Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministers held a phone call; stressed continuing diplomacy and prevent escalation of tensions.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said US demands from Iran are impossible and unattainable.
- US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov, in which the US-Russia relationship, Russia-Ukraine war and Iran was discussed.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson denies the UAE’s accusation that Iran fired missiles and drones at it, stating that Iran’s defensive actions were exclusively directed at the US, according to a statement. UAE is cooperating with the US and Israel against Iran.
- Israeli Ambassador said relations with the UAE are growing.
- IRGC denies any involvement with the attacks on the UAE earlier in the week.
- Pakistan’s PM thanks the US President for pausing Project Freedom, in response to a request from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, among others.
- “Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi held a telephone conversation with US Secretary of War Hegseth about bilateral relations in various fields”, Tasnim reported.
- The two US commercial ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday had military security aboard, NBC reported citing sources.
- A French bulk carrier was hit by a cruise missile in the waters near the UAE, CBS reported citing officials.
- CMA CGM confirms a vessel was the target of an attack on Tuesday while it was crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the green, following on from the gains stateside and the positive update from President Trump, stating that Project Freedom is to be paused for a short time to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed. ASX 200 neared last week’s peak of 8787, rebounding after two consecutive days of losses. The bounce was supported by Financials and Industrials, while Energy lagged as oil prices fell. KOSPI surged at the open, breaking the 7000 handle, and even activated the buy-side sidecar within the first 5 minutes of trade. Tech giants helped the surge in the index, with Samsung Electronics (+15%) being the latest Co. to join the USD 1tln market cap group. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng followed the positive risk-on tone as Shanghai returned from holidays. CK Hutchison gained after the Co. agreed to sell its 49% stake in VodafoneThree, while Wuliangye Yibin underperformed after a double downgrade at Goldman Sachs. On the data front, RatingDog services PMI beat estimates, which further supported the indices.
Top Asian News
- China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, Xinhua reported.
- BHP (BHP AT) CFO said new investors are buying into the Co. on copper exposure and AI demand.
- KOSPI sidecar activated after KOSPI 200 futures rise by 5%.
European bourses are stronger across the board, buoyed by optimism surrounding US-Iran peace. Opened higher as markets reacted to Trump’s decision to temporarily pause “Project Freedom”, and then took another leg higher to make fresh peaks on an Axios report which suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict. European sectors are entirely in the green, except for Energy and Utilities; the latter, unsurprisingly, is hampered by losses in underlying oil prices. The top of the pile consists of Basic Resources (lifted by strength in metals prices), Autos and Consumer Products. The Autos sector has been driven higher by post-earning strength in BMW (+5%, beat exp. but faced fierce price competition in China) and Continental (+5.5%, Q1 results topped exp. and confirmed guidance). The Consumer Products sector has benefited from gains in jewellery-name Pandora (+9%) after Q1 revenue beat estimates, but did experience weakness across North America and Europe.
Top European News
- EU PPI MoM (Mar) M/M 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. -0.7%, Low. 0.8%, High. 3.7%).
- EU PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. -3%, Low. -0.5%, High. 2.1%).
- EU S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.6 (Prev. 50.7).
- EU S&P Global Services PMI Final (Apr) 47.6 vs. Exp. 47.4 (Prev. 50.2).
- UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (Apr) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52 (Prev. 50.5).
- UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 52.6 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 50.3).
FX
- Snapshot: G10s are stronger against the USD this morning, to varying degrees. Antipodeans outperform, given the risk tone; JPY is also towards the top of the pile, following likely intervention overnight. SEK is a touch weaker vs EUR, after a cooler-than-expected inflation report, but is unlikely to shift the dial for the Riksbank on Thursday.
- DXY is weaker this morning, and currently trades at the lower end of a 97.79 to 98.34 range. Pressure facilitated by the risk-on mood, amidst optimism surrounding progress towards US-Iran peace. This stems from a post from the POTUS, who announced that the US would pause Project Freedom to allow time for negotiations to occur. The move lower was then exacerbated after an Axios report suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict. In its current form, it would declare and end to the war with Iran. Potential JPY intervention also facilitating the pressure this morning
- Focus overnight was on USD/JPY, where an aggressive move lower took the pair to a 155.00 handle, before bouncing back towards 156.00. There is currently no confirmation that the move was intervention, but markets should begin to get some details on recent moves late in the Japanese session. Time will tell whether these attempts of intervention proves effective, given the volatile nature of the Middle Eastern conflict. A near-term resolution will help the USD/JPY trundle lower, a factor which Japanese Officials would probably require to achieve any lasting strength in the JPY.
Central Banks
- ECB’s Cipollone said the EZ inflation trend is moving towards adverse.
- ECB Wage Tracker: 2026 annual 2.282% (prev. 2.270%). Q1 1.847% (prev. 1.887%). Q2 2.131% (prev. 2.10%). Q3 2.553% (prev. 2.521%). Q4 2.597% (prev. 2.574%).
- BoE Governor Bailey said we must be mindful of risks of private credit.
- NAB sees the RBA hiking in June to take the cash rate to 4.60%.
- RBNZ Governor Breman said banks are resilient under stress tests.
- RBNZ Financial Stability Report: New Zealand’s financial system is resilient and well positioned to support households and businesses even if economic conditions soften. The global risk environment has worsened over the past six months, as conflict in the Middle East threatens world energy supply.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8562 vs exp. 6.8160 (prev. 6.8628).
- BoK official said inflation is seen higher in May and are closely monitoring inflation trend as uncertainty is high over the Middle East situation.
Fixed Income
- Unsurprisingly, a bullish start for fixed income as the marked energy retreat has allowed yields to ease. Pressure in energy facilitated by a) Trump pausing Project Freedom to allow time for negotiations, b) Axios report suggested US-Iran are close to an MoU. (See geopols section for details).
- USTs to a 110-28+ peak, with gains of 15 ticks and breaching Monday’s WTD 110-26+ best. For the US, aside from geopols, we are attentive to ADP ahead of NFP on Friday; ADP is seen at 79k from 62k, vs a 73k (prev. 178k) consensus for Friday’s Payrolls. Additionally, we get the full Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement after Monday’s projections, before remarks from Fed’s Musalem (2028) and Goolsbee (2027).
- Bunds post gains in excess of 80 ticks and currently hold just off a 125.88 peak. A high that printed in proximity to the above geopolitical updates this morning, and after a slew of Final PMIs, which were subject to modest revision. Of note for policymakers, the ECB’s latest wage tracker showed upside across the year. Though, the ECB will at this stage likely welcome the relatively modest level of upside and particularly that the Q4-2026 figure remains shy of the 2.709% reported in February.
- Gilts gapped higher by 48 ticks before climbing another 30 ticks to an 87.32 peak, notching a new high for the week, but remain shy of last week’s 87.03 closing price. Potentially capping a return to and test of that level is the ongoing scrutiny around PM Starmer, as UK press continues to brief that the challenge against Starmer is increasing, with the Welsh Labour leader seemingly primed to call for Starmer to step down on Friday and reports that the party is working to get Burnham back in the Commons.
- Germany sells EUR 2.662bln vs exp. EUR 3.5bln 2.50% 2032 Bund Auction: b/c 2.4x (prev. 1.1x), avg. yield 2.8% (prev. 2.78%), retention 23.94%.
Commodities
- Energy on the backfoot after US President Trump paused Project Freedom to allow time for talks and potential progress with Iran. An update that weighed on crude overnight, sending WTI below USD 100/bbl and Brent beneath USD 108/bbl. Thereafter, the complex took another hit after an Axios report which suggested that the US and Iran are closing in on an MoU to end the conflict (see geopols section for details).
- As it stands WTI Jun’26 and Brent Jul’26 are holding towards session lows at USD 93.96/bbl and USD 101.46/bbl, respectively. Brent now eyes USD 100/bbl to the downside, and a further leg lower could see a retest of the low from 27th April 2026, at USD 99.58/bbl.
- Gold is benefiting from the energy and USD downside, XAU as high as USD 4,708/oz, matching its 21 DMA. Base metals are also firmer, cheering the general risk tone and welcoming the return of Mainland China. 3M LME Copper above USD 13.2k, with gains in excess of USD 150 as things stand.
- China has ordered its oil refineries that purchase crude from Tehran not to comply with or enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil, CNN reported.
- Australia’s PM Albanese said that they are to lift minimum stockpiles of every type of fuel by around 10 days, the fuel reserve is to be around 1 billion litres and the package is to cost more than AUD 10bln.
- Weekly private inventory data (bbls): Crude -8.1mln (exp. -2.8), Gasoline -6.1mln (exp. -1.7mln), Distillates -4.6mln (exp. -2mln), Cushing -1.1mln.
Trade/Tariffs
- Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin said China and the US are in communication on Trump’s trip.
- US Ambassador Puzder wants the US-EU trade agreement to be agreed on before July, Bloomberg TV.
- US Envoy to India said Indian companies plan to invest over USD 20.5bln in the US tech, manufacturing and pharmaceuticals.
1b European opening report
1c Asian opening report
Energy pressured, stocks bid on Trump’s Project Freedom pause, JPY intervention speculation continues – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 02:00 AM
- Energy was pressured by Trump announcing a pause to Project Freedom, though the blockade remains.
- To the benefit of fixed income and G10 FX against the USD. USD/JPY slumped to a 155.03 low.
- APAC equities benefited from the above; US and European futures point to a constructive open. NQ leads post-AMD.
- Israeli security/military officials reportedly believe negotiations are a waste of time, and conveyed to the US a desire to resume attacks on Iran.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish Inflation Prelim. (Apr), EZ PMIs Final (Apr), PPI (Mar), Canadian Ivey PMI (Apr), US ADP Employment (Apr), US Treasury Refunding Announcement, ECB Wage Tracker (May), NBP Policy Announcement, Speakers include ECB’s Lane, Cipollone, Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem, BoC’s Macklem & Rogers, Supply from the UK & Germany.
- Earnings from Arm, AppLovin, Snap, Whirlpool, Walt Disney, Kraft Heinz, Uber, CVS, Telecom Italia, Banca Generali, HelloFresh, Fresenius, Daimler Truck, Lufthansa & Continental.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump posted that Project Freedom will be paused for a short period to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed, however the blockade will remain in full force and effect.
- Israel conveyed a message to Washington that the security and military leadership wants to resume attacks on Iran,according to Al Jazeera citing Israeli Broadcasting sources. Israel believes that negotiations with Iran are a waste of time.
- US President Trump, on Iran, said the US has total control. If there is no Iran deal, it will go quickly and methodically. Trump added that Iran wants to make a deal and that Iran did not shoot ships guarded by US.
- US President Trump reiterated that Iran has no anti-aircraft capability and no leaders, adding that Iran is not doing well and must not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump later stated that “you’ll find out” when asked what the US would do if Iran violated the ceasefire.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran must come to negotiating table and accept terms.On the Strait, Rubio said the US will continue to clear passageway through the Strait to restore freedom of navigation.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson denied the UAE’s accusation that Iran fired missiles and drones at it, stating that Iran’s defensive actions were exclusively directed at the US.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said US demands from Iran are impossible and unattainable.
- Iran has implemented a new mechanism for ship transits in the Strait of Hormuz,according to Press TV.
- The two US commercial ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday had military security aboard, according to NBC citing sources.
- Iranian Provincial Authorities said the sounds in Qeshm Island were due to confronting drones, with no explosion or damage incurred. This comes following reports of explosions heard on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr.
- UKMTO said it has received a report of an incident within the Strait of Hormuz and verified source reported a cargo vessel hit by unknown projectile.
- A French bulk carrier was hit by a cruise missile in the waters near the UAE, according to CBS citing officials.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were broadly higher, as Monday’s increased geopolitical tensions unwind somewhat. The US stated that the ceasefire with Iran remains in place, despite the Iranian activity towards the UAE yesterday. General Caine noted recent actions remain below the threshold for a resumption of major military operations, helping to ease risk sentiment and weigh on crude. Sector strength was led by Technology and Materials, while the VIX declined.
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.37 (exp. 1.28), Revenue 10.3bln (exp. 9.88bln), Q2 revenue view 11.2bln (exp. 10.5bln).
- SPX +0.81% at 7,259, NDX +1.31% at 28,015, DJI +0.73% at 49,298, RUT +1.75% at 2,854.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- EU Trade Chief Sefcovic called for swift return to agreed Turnberry tariff terms from US. He added that it would be beneficial if main features of EU-US trade deal are in line ahead of 1-year anniversary.
- US Envoy to India said Indian companies plan to invest over USD 20.5bln in the US tech, manufacturing and pharmaceuticals.
CENTRAL BANKS
- ECB’s Lane said future projected temperature increases could push up the response of food prices to Summer heat further.
- ECB’s Villeroy said ECB will raise rates if second-round effects are seen and not seeing sufficient signs yet to raise rates.
- BoE Governor Bailey said we must be mindful of risks of private credit.
- RBNZ Financial Stability Report: New Zealand’s financial system is resilient and well positioned to support households and businesses even if economic conditions soften.
- BoK official said inflation is seen higher in May and are closely monitoring inflation trend as uncertainty is high over the Middle East situation.
- NAB sees the RBA hiking in June to take the cash rate to 4.60%.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said him and China President Xi have a good relationship with the US doing a lot of business with China. Will talk about Iran with Xi, Xi has been very nice about Iran, has been very respectful and not been challenged.
- The US working to address the global memory chip shortage through a supply chain coalition with allies in Asia, Europe and the Middle East, a State Department official told Nikkei Asia.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the green, following on from the gains stateside and the positive update from President Trump, stating that Project Freedom is to be paused for a short time to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed.
- ASX 200 neared last week’s peak of 8787, rebounding after two consecutive days of losses. The bounce was supported by Financials and Industrials, while Energy lagged as oil prices fell.
- KOSPI surged at the open, breaking the 7000 handle, and even activated the buy-side sidecar within the first 5 minutes of trade. Tech giants helped the surge in the index, with Samsung Electronics (+15%) being the latest Co. to join the USD 1tln market cap group.
- Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng followed the positive risk-on tone as Shanghai returned from holidays. CK Hutchison gained after the Co. agreed to sell its 49% stake in VodafoneThree, while Wuliangye Yibin underperformed after a double downgrade at Goldman Sachs. On the data front, RatingDog services PMI beat estimates, which further supported the indices.
- US equity futures were firmer, as NQ outperformed after AMD surged after-hours. The Co. beat its top-line metrics and Q2 revenue guidance while the data centre segment revenue surged by 57% Y/Y.
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.8% after cash closed +1.8% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY gapped lower after US President Trump posted that Project Freedom is to be paused for a short period of time, however, caveated that the blockade is to remain in place. Further downside was seen following the sudden JPY strength (see below) and returned back below the 98.00 handle.
- EUR/USD regained the 1.1740 handle. The initial upside was spurred following the Trump announcement and then extended higher amid further USD weakness. Markets will be looking ahead to the final EZ PMIs, although market reaction is expected to be limited.
- GBP/USD, similarly, benefited from the pause of Project Freedom and the softer dollar, as Cable returned to the 1.3600 handle.
- USD/JPY traded with a lack of direction throughout the majority of the Asia-Pac session before the sudden surge in JPY strength (despite a clear driver), however speculation of government intervention in FX markets have increased in recent sessions. It has been well-documented that authorities prefer to intervene during thin liquidity during holiday periods. USD/JPY slumped from 157.76 to 155.88 over the space of 15 minutes before it probed the 155.00 handle.
- Antipodeans outperformed its peers for the most part, benefiting from the risk-tone sentiment. AUD/USD has now reached levels not seen since June 2026.
- SNB’s Martin said the SNB has greater willingness to intervene on FX.
FIXED INCOME
- UST Futures benefited after US President Trump announced that Project Freedom is to be paused for a short period of time. USTs lifted from 110-08+ to a peak of 110-16 following the announcement and then expected amid USD weakness (see FX section). Looking ahead, the US Treasury’s QRA will be in focus while NFP is expected on Friday.
- Bund Futures gapped higher on the open, but sold off immediately. Despite the initial weakness, Bunds traded held above Tuesday’s peak of 125.11 (125.08-125.28 range) ahead of the EZ final PMIs and a 2032 Bund auction.
- JGB Futures were closed for Constitution Day.
- Australia sells AUD 1.0bln 4.25% 2036 AGBs: b/c 3.86x, average yield 4.9735%.
- China sells 50-year ultra-long special treasury bonds at 2.52%.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures came under pressure at the start of Asia-Pac trade as geopols continue to drive price action. Via a post on Truth Social, US President Trump announced that Project Freedom is to be paused for a short period to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed. However, the blockade is to remain in full effect. Nevertheless, WTI futures slipped around USD 3/bbl on the announcement and briefly dipped below USD 100/bbl, while Brent Jul’26 gapped below USD 108/bbl. In other Middle East news, CBS reported that a French bulk carrier was hit by a cruise missile in the waters near the UAE, while explosions were heard on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr. WTI Jun’26 traded in a USD 99.12-102.70/bbl range while Brent Jul’26 held below USD 109/bbl.
- Precious Metals surged, being the biggest beneficiary from the Trump announcement. Spot gold (+2%) trended higher throughout the Asia-Pac and traded just shy of USD 4650/oz heading into the European session.
- 3M LME Copper benefited from the risk-on sentiment as the red metal returned above USD 13.28k/t and topped just shy of USD 13.3k/t.
- Saudi Arabia sets June Arab Light Crude oil OSP to Asia at plus USD 15.50/bbl (prev. + USD 19.50/bbl in May) vs Oman/Dubai average, to NW Europe at plus USD 25.85/bbl (prev. +USD 27.85/bbl) to ICE Brent Settlement, to US at plus USD 14.60/bbl (prev. + USD 14.60/bbl) vs ASCI.
- Weekly private inventory data (bbls): Crude -8.1mln (exp. -2.8), Gasoline -6.1mln (exp. -1.7mln), Distillates -4.6mln (exp. -2mln), Cushing -1.1mln.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin extended above USD 81k amid the risk-on tone.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Australia’s PM Albanese said they are to lift minimum stockpiles of every type of fuel by around 10 days, the fuel reserve is to be around 1 billion litres and the package is to cost more than AUD 10bln.
- China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, according to Xinhua.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese RatingDog Composite PMI (Apr) 53.1 (Prev. 51.5).
- Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (Apr) 52.6 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 52.1).
- New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q1) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.4%, Low. 5.3%, High. 5.5%).
- New Zealand Employment Change QoQ (Q1) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%).
- New Zealand Participation Rate (Q1) 70.40% (Prev. 70.5%).
- New Zealand Labour Costs Index QoQ (Q1) Q/Q 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%, Low. 0.3%, High. 0.4%).
- New Zealand Labour Costs Index YoY (Q1) Y/Y 2.0% vs. Exp. 2% (Prev. 2%, Low. 1.9%, High. 2%).
- South Korean Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) Y/Y 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.2%).
- South Korean Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) M/M 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.3%).
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Angela Rayner is preparing to deliver a post-poll verdict as speculation over PM Starmer’s future mounts, according to the FT.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
JAPAN
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
3. CHINA/
CHINA/
4 EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK //JET FUEL….
UK Faces Summer Flight Disruptions As Jet Fuel Risks Mount
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 03:30 AM
- Ministers are expected to warn Britons that flight cancellations could disrupt summer holiday plans.
- Allianz Trade research says the UK is especially exposed to jet fuel shortages because of import dependence.
- Airlines are weighing cancellations, surcharges, and ticket price adjustments as fuel supply risks rise.
Ministers are set to warn the British public that flight cancellations will hit summer holiday plans as new research suggested that the UK is more exposed to jet fuel shortages than other European countries.
Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, is set to tell Brits that there could be flight cancellations this year as she will talk up staycations, according to The Times.
Her warnings will follow a prompt by Sir Keir Starmer that people would have to consider changing “where they go on holiday”.
Trade experts have warned that the supply of kerosene was set to be hit by disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz.
Michael O’Leary, the boss of Ryanair, Europe’s biggest airline, said rivals were “desperately” searching for flights to cancel.
Some airlines have reportedly said that the UK could escape some of the worst effects of jet fuel shortages due to obtaining supplies from other countries.
UK is ‘particularly vulnerable’ to jet fuel shortages
But research by Allianz Trade found the UK had Europe’s “most structurally exposed markets to jet-fuel shortages”.
It said its heavy reliance on imports, albeit from countries outside of the Middle East, would leave the UK “particularly vulnerable” to supply shocks.
“The UK, Germany, France, and Italy show the largest shortfalls, underscoring their reliance on external supply to meet aviation demand,” trade experts said.
“European aviation activity is indirectly exposed not only to global oil price dynamics but also to geopolitical and logistical risks along key supply routes, reinforcing the region’s dependence on external refining hubs for a fuel that is essential to long-haul connectivity.”
The worst effects of flight disruption could come in late June and July, near the peak of summer travel.
Ministers may be looking to discourage Britons from taking long-haul flights in contingency plans being drawn up, according to reports.
Lufthansa Group has announced it will cancel 20,000 flights over the next six months, while Virgin Atlantic added a fuel surcharge and British Airways has warned of “pricing adjustments” to tickets.
Airlines UK, the trade body, said: “UK airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply.”
END
UK
Taxpayers Foot Staggering £629 Million Bill For Foreign Nationals In UK Prisons
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
UK taxpayers are forking out £629 million a year to house 10,487 foreign national offenders in British prisons — a bill that could pay for 16,500 police officers or 15,000 NHS nurses.
While Labour claims it’s deporting record numbers, an ex-prison governor has torn into the “staggering” cost and the “incredibly slow process” that leaves dangerous foreign criminals draining public resources instead of being sent home.
This is the direct result of years of open-borders policies that prioritise criminals’ “rights” over British safety.
Reform UK’s Prisons Adviser and former prison governor Vanessa Frake laid it out clearly on GB News. “The cost to this country for foreign national prisoners is staggering,” she said. “It’s a very long, drawn-out process, which kind of goes from three main areas.”
Frake detailed the excuses that keep foreign offenders here: “The problem is a lack of identity documents for these people. Quite often they get rid of their passports, so the Home Office then has to write to the country that they originate from, and that process is very slow.”
“Sometimes the country refuses. And there are of course the ECHR claims. Those under Article 8, right to life, right to family for those who have family in this country and of course, there is administration errors as well,” Frake further explained.
She added that even recent deals fall short. “They’ve just done a deal with Albania to send 200 prisoners back, but that comes with certain conditions, like improving their prison service, giving them electric Volkswagens, etcetera.”
Frake noted the daily cost disparity: “It costs something like £109 a day in this country to keep a foreign national in prison, and we’re going to give the Albanians £32 a day, so it’s still not quick.”
Albania tops the list of foreign national prisoners, followed by Ireland and Poland. Yet Frake’s blunt conclusion was that Britain can’t simply load them onto planes. “We’re not going to get away with it by just putting them on a plane, we’ve got to persuade these countries to take these individuals back.”
This isn’t an isolated failure. It’s the pattern. Britain has repeatedly let violent offenders and known extremists stay or walk free despite clear red flags.
Take the most recent case of a Somali terrorist in London who previously stabbed police officers, and was a known extremist.
Essa Suleiman, who arrived as a child and holds British citizenship, was convicted in 2008 for stabbing two officers and a police dog. Referred to Prevent in 2020 as an extremist, he was still free to attempt to murder two Jewish people in Golders Green last month. https://modernity.news/2026/04/30/somali-terrorist-in-london-previously-stabbed-police-officers-was-a-known-extremist/embed/#?secret=U5a7CVxc7H
Leftists seem more concerned with how police roughly handled the terrorist, however.https://www.youtube.com/embed/UpxziRwAWWQ
In another case, Al-Qaeda-inspired plotter Shah Rahman, was convicted for planning to bomb the London Stock Exchange, but can’t be sent back to Bangladesh because an immigration judge ruled it would breach his Article 3 human rights against “torture or inhuman treatment.”
He even married a woman banned from Britain for life over ISIS material. https://modernity.news/2026/04/21/what-does-this-guy-have-to-do-to-get-deported/embed/#?secret=NqhwuV7rJY
In Edinburgh a reported Somali migrant went on a knife rampage, smashing a shop and stabbing victims near a school. https://www.youtube.com/embed/FSfENKjDwPQ
Council leader Cllr Jane Meagher responded by praising Edinburgh’s “diversity” as its “biggest strength” and calling for more “tolerance.” https://modernity.news/2026/03/03/edinburgh-leader-hails-city-diversity-after-migrant-stabbing-spree-hospitalises-two/embed/#?secret=VL5cNQE91s
In another example, Zahid Iqbal, who plotted to bomb an Army base using an Al-Qaeda manual and a toy-car IED, was freed three years early despite warnings and prior recall for breaching conditions. https://modernity.news/2026/02/11/uk-releases-dangerous-bomb-plot-terrorist-from-prison-early/embed/#?secret=RQeo5YSKqg
How many more are there like this — released from prison or previously charged with serious crimes — now roaming around free?
The Ministry of Justice claims more than 8,700 foreign offenders have been removed since July 2024. Yet the prisons remain full of them, the costs keep climbing, and the public keeps paying the price for a system rigged against its own people.
This growing insecurity is now reflected in public sentiment. According to a major survey, four in five parents (80%) fear their daughters will grow up feeling unsafe in public in Britain, with 40% believing this will happen at an earlier age than it did for them.
The solution offered?
In Dumfries, Scotland, schoolgirls were handed rape alarms after repeated reports of asylum seekers stalking and photographing them — the authorities’ answer to the problem instead of stopping the influx. https://modernity.news/2026/04/08/this-is-not-a-solution/embed/#?secret=VFCL8BUtBU
This is what unchecked mass immigration and weak deportation rules deliver: British taxpayers funding foreign criminals while violent threats walk the streets. Real border control means ending the excuses, scrapping the ECHR vetoes, and putting British safety first — before the bill gets any bigger.
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GERMANY/KOLBE
How German Media Became The PR Arm Of The Expanding State
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
How does economic growth emerge? Let us turn to Ludwig von Mises, one of the defining economists of the 20th century – and paraphrase his idea: growth arises where private capital is guided in a free market by an undistorted price system. Prices signal scarcity and direct scarce resources to where they generate real value. When this system is distorted by ideological intervention, capital is misallocated – potential growth simply evaporates.
That is the theory. And there is no doubt that the reality of emerging economies has repeatedly confirmed the teachings of the Austrian School. Take Argentina, for example: the economic policy shift under President Javier Milei is leading to a rollback of the state and new private investment impulses. That is how it should be: the state as a rule-setting referee, not a player in the economy.
This thesis meets maximum resistance in German editorial offices. There prevails a staunchly statist spirit, a vulgar Hegelianism that regularly loses itself in the labyrinth of economic causality. As a reminder: Milei is the libertarian whom Chancellor Friedrich Merz and German media denounced as a far-right eccentric, accusing him of trampling on his own people. As said: ideologically blinded, intellectually shallow.
On Thursday, Handelsblatt presented its readers with the result of the marriage between green-statist ideology and editorial missionary zeal. In its morning briefing, the author made clear how she interprets the world: at the top, the all-knowing state; far below, the misguided, dependent individual. The piece appeared under the title “When Father State must save German growth” and stands as a case study of the spirit dominating German media. The individual counts for nothing, the state for everything. A hint of Orwell runs through these lines. They are meant to remind us that our economic fate now lies in the hands of an all-knowing federal government. Listening closely, one can still hear the fading odes of the press to former vice chancellor and manager of green chaos Robert Habeck.
Many people find it helpful to embed their existence into the prevailing ideology, thereby relieving themselves of existential responsibility. When this happens on a mass scale, a state within the state emerges – what we call the welfare state. Yet this attitude carries a problem: in journalism it obscures the search for the causes of the current crisis. Editorial work blurs the overregulation of our economy, the destruction of nuclear energy, and clientelist climate policy – together forming the broad delta of deindustrialization.
We are facing a media-historical phenomenon. Magazines such as manager magazin, Handelsblatt, WirtschaftsWoche, and even once-bourgeois papers like FAZ now only vaguely suggest through their names that they were once committed to economic analysis. Condensing tone, imagery, and reporting style, one can hardly escape the impression of a media phalanx of the Green Deal.
The shift in perspective has succeeded. Economic rationality has been replaced by an iron belief in the net-zero cult. For the socialists in editorial offices, a fortunate development – since it is tied to the expansion of a vast state apparatus, conveniently justifying long-term funding of their own activities within the framework of so-called democracy promotion. The state orders – the media deliver: all from a single mold, always in the tone of climate apocalypse.
Manager Magazin confirmed this week the suspicion that even business-oriented outlets operate as a media arm of the green extraction economy. Economics Minister Katherina Reiche, after her cautious criticism of the green subsidy cult, is already depicted on the cover as an oil-soaked fossil-era lobbyist. The rest: a cheer for the energy transition.
The media climax of kneeling before Father State came last year with the presentation of the so-called Draghi Plan. Former Italian prime minister and ECB president Mario Draghi outlined a program intended to lift the eurozone out of stagnation through massive state investment. The plan envisioned around €800 billion annually. Over at least five years, roughly five percent of European GDP would be politically directed. Draghi describes nothing less than a future EU in which economic dynamism is increasingly eroded by state control.
Those who followed media coverage of Draghi’s megalomania rarely encountered dissent. After decades of successful indoctrination – beginning in schools and continuing through universities and media transformed into socialist re-education matrices – this is hardly surprising. Brussels has now largely integrated the plan into the new seven-year budget. Between 2028 and 2034, around €2 trillion will pass through the hands of the Brussels bureaucracy – a remarkable joint success of political elites and their compliant media narrators.
That Draghi, Merz, and von der Leyen are leading us into a new form of socialism under bright daylight is not even up for debate – it is actively reinforced by media work. They pave the ever-widening road into a command economy with rising subsidies and taxes, ultimately resulting in a state quota well above 50 percent – socialism in all but name. The disappearance of market economy is accompanied by massive public-sector expansion: 205,000 new government jobs in just one year – public job creation under state flag.
Meanwhile, the value-creating part of society is bleeding out, while the transformation project coldly smiles at the population. Declining productivity, industrial flight from Germany – a program of impoverishment for the private sector, which was openly mocked by Handelsblatt on Thursday. “Bloodless,” the author called it. Once again, the state must rescue it and pull the chestnuts from the fire – a remarkable worldview given fiscal, regulatory, and energy realities.
You may not notice it – neither at Handelsblatt, manager magazin, Die Zeit, Süddeutsche Zeitung, nor public broadcasting – but their persistent defensive effort, the immunization of the state against criticism, is freezing society in place.
The media form a phalanx shielding government representatives, administration, and the ideological party apparatus from reality. In doing so, they become complicit in enabling the ongoing destruction of the economy. The longer the green transformation unfolds its devastating effects, the more capital and resources are burned – resources needed for rebuilding after the green-statist catastrophe.
Yet nothing happens by chance. Chancellor Merz, like his predecessors Scholz and Merkel, together with the Brussels power cartel, is pursuing a scorched-earth policy. A return to market economy is to be prevented at all costs, despite being the only genuinely democratic and meritocratic form of economic organization. It stands in the way of building green socialism.
Over time, the state apparatus has succeeded in establishing an incentive structure that absorbs people through migration, public employment, or welfare systems into dependency. In such a climate, anyone who raises their voice against the paternal state inevitably stands against the majority – and must expect a storm of outrage.
And as long as Greta Thunberg’s cohorts at Fridays for Future dance in the streets and parts of the population celebrate economic decline as degrowth progress, this children’s party is far from over. A blurred hope remains in the darkest night of the emerging socialism.
END
HOLLAND
Carbon Neutral, Speech Negative: Amsterdam Bans Ads Featuring Meat & Fossil Fuels
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Jonathan Turley,
In “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I write about how censorship often becomes an insatiable appetite once countries go down the road of speech regulation. There is no better example than the Dutch and their recent ban on public ads for meat and fossil fuels. Activists have imposed similar limitations on advertising for products in the United States, from alcohol to tobacco. However, the Dutch law reflects how this tendency can metastasize into shielding citizens from unhealthy choices or influences.
It appears that Dutch painters such as Pieter Aertsen (with his work A Meat Stall with the Holy Family Giving Alms, above) were promoting harmful imagery in their work. As for Rembrandt’s “Slaughtered Ox,” the Dutch master is now little more than a climate change denier.
Starting on May 1, the ban on such images became part of Amsterdam’s push to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. While purportedly neutral on carbon, it is manifestly negative on free speech.
As with other anti-free speech measures in Europe, this push again came from the left. The GreenLeft Party’s Anneke Veenhoff explained “I mean, if you want to be leading in climate policies and you rent out your walls to exactly the opposite, then what are you doing?”
The answer is engaging in free speech.
This is, of course, commercial speech, which is often subject to a lower level of protection. However, this shows the danger of using the differential standard to target products or industries viewed as unhealthy or ill-advised for consumers.
In Amsterdam, the ban will cover industries such as airlines, including KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, one of the largest employers and revenue generators in the country.
Notably, activists compare this to cigarette advertising bans, confirming the very slippery slope danger that those companies raised when they were targeted.
Hannah Prins, a paralegal at Advocates for the Future, is quoted as saying, “I don’t think it’s normal to see murdered animals on billboards. So I think it’s very good that that’s going to change.”
Other Dutch cities are now following suit, including Haarlem, Utrecht, and Nijmegen.
Of course, prostitutes still advertise live in Amsterdam and marijuana is a major industry for tourists.
If you want drugs, there are ample choices.
However, if you want a steak, you will have to rely on word-of-mouth directions.
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /USA/IRAN/TUESDAY NIGHT
Trump Pauses Project Freedom Amid “Great Progress” Towards ‘Complete & Final’ Agreement With Iran
Tuesday, May 05, 2026 – 04:00 PM
Summary
- Trump announce ‘pause’ to Project Freedom amid optimism of a “complete and final” deal with Iran
- Rubio declares ‘offensive’ actions of Operation Epic Fury are over, and now Project Freedom is in swing. Another vessel comes under attack in Hormuz.
- UAE under attack again, confirmed in state sources – however which Iran denies doing – instead saying its actions were directed at the United States. White House still hasn’t declared end of ceasefire.
- Pentagon addresses whether ceasefire over or violated: Caine says Iran’s Monday operations were “all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point.“
- Contradictory statements out of Tehran on UAE attack, amid reports of division between IRGC & civilian leaders.
- Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to Beijing to discuss crisis with Chinese counterpart.
The odds of a peace deal being completed just jumped…
* * *
Trump Pauses Project Freedom
There is a knee-jerk wave of optimism across assets with WTI crude futures lower, US equity contracts and Treasury futures higher after President Trump said Project Freedom will be paused.
Trump also said there is progress toward a final agreement with Iran which is what investors really want to see as it could potentially mean a reopening of Hormuz.
Trump statement on his TruthSocial feed (emphasis and spacing ours):
Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally…
…the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran…
…we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.
WTI crude futures are testing back below $100…
Polymarket odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal has jumped to better than a coin-flip…
Don’t hold your breath though as there have been several false starts of this kind before, and traders will soon lose faith unless there are more details from the Iranian side.
ISRAEL/USA IRAN //DUBAI//TUESDAY NIGHT
Netanyahu among leaders backing UAE after reported Iranian strikes
ByREUTERS
United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan received calls from regional leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, condemning what they described as Iranian attacks on civilians and civilian facilities in the UAE, the state news agency WAM said on Wednesday.
The leader “affirmed their countries’ solidarity with the UAE and support for measures it takes to safeguard its security and stability and ensure the safety of its citizens,” WAM added.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA/WEDNESDAY MORNING
White House Nearing Preliminary Deal With Iran To End The War
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 05:35 AM
Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war. This is based on a 14-point, one-page memorandum that creates a 30-day negotiating window for a broader nuclear and Strait of Hormuz deal and follows President Trump’s announcement last night of “great progress” and a “complete and final” deal nearing.
“The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours.
Nothing has been agreed yet, but sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began,” Axios wrote in the report.
Here are the key points:
- Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment. The duration is still under negotiation, with the U.S. pushing for 20 years, Iran offering five, and sources suggesting 12 to 15 years may be the likely spot.
- Iran would also pledge not to seek nuclear weapons, accept enhanced inspections, potentially halt underground nuclear facility operations, and possibly remove highly enriched uranium from the country.
- The U.S. would gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.
- Shipping restrictions through the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during the 30-day talks. If negotiations fail, U.S. forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
Axios said talks are being led by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with top Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.
News of this sparked risk on in U.S. equity index futures, WTI fell to the $95-a-barrel handle, and U.S. Treasury yields dipped.
Market Response:
S&P500 Futs
Brent Futs
WTI Futs
UST10Y
BTC/USD
Polymarket:https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 56% · No 44%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 56% · No 44%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
*Developing…
end
IRAN/ISRAEL USA//IRANIAN RESPONSE
Iran Spox Blasts ‘Unrealistic’ White House ‘Wish List’ To End War After US Touts ‘Close’ To Deal
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 08:15 AM
Summary
- Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war, as Trump post appears to offer olive branch.
- White House says it expects a response to the latest offer within 48 hours.
- Iran’s initial response via media & national security spox: US demands are unrealistic & do not reflect reality.
- A key caveat of the US offered deal is that Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment, & Washington wants a 20-year ban on this.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 44% · No 56%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Trump Admits: ‘Too Soon’
And now a bit of rapid narrative reversal, coming from President Trump himself, after once again a likely premature early morning Axios report with overly optimistic language. Trump’s fresh words are via the NY Post:
President Donald Trump said it’s “too soon” to plan peace talks with Iran despite reports of a near deal, downplaying prospects of imminent negotiations in Pakistan. He warned that if Iran accepts terms, hostilities could end and the Strait of Hormuz reopen—but failure to agree would trigger intensified military action.
Indeed the Iranian reaction issued via media reports also suggests this is the case, that all the talk of an agreement being close is premature, and there remains immense hurdles and a long way to go. Axios’ Barak Ravid still insists that “the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.”
Initial Word From Tehran: Doesn’t Reflect Reality
Iranian initial reaction through its media: “What US media outlets are publishing about the details of the negotiations does not reflect the reality of what is happening, according to AI Araby citing Iranian Sources.”
“Progress has been made in talks with Washington through Pakistan, but it has not yet reached a level that would lead to an agreement,” the statement says. The Iranians are also clearly sticking by their approach which says the nuclear issue is a non-starter and that talks must focus on opening Hormuz and finding a final end to the conflict. “The negotiations are focused on ending the war, not the nuclear issue,” the statement in Al Araby continues.
And then the final criticism of Washington’s approach: “The negotiations are still facing the intransigent American approach and excessive demands.” And further, this:
Ebrahim Rezaei dismissed U.S. demands as unrealistic, saying Washington won’t gain through conflict what it failed to secure in talks. He added Iran is ready to act and warned of a severe, regret-inducing response to any provocation.
Here is the full statement from the Iranian Spokesperson of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission (via machine translation):
Trump Issues Carrot & Stick
The below is a fresh Trump Truth Social Post on Wednesday morning, warning the Iranians that the Hormuz Strait must be “open to all”. However, the president continues, if Tehran doesn’t agree then “the bombing starts” and it will be at a “much higher level and intensity than it was before”.
All of this has followed an awkward 24 hours of drastically different signals coming from various top officials of the US administration.
WH Expects Iranian Response In Next 48 Hours
Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war. This is based on a 14-point, one-page memorandum that creates a 30-day negotiating window for a broader nuclear and Strait of Hormuz deal and follows President Trump’s announcement last night of “great progress” and a “complete and final” deal nearing.
“The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours.
Nothing has been agreed yet, but sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began,” Axios wrote in the report.
Here are the key points:
- Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment. The duration is still under negotiation, with the U.S. pushing for 20 years, Iran offering five, and sources suggesting 12 to 15 years may be the likely spot.
- Iran would also pledge not to seek nuclear weapons, accept enhanced inspections, potentially halt underground nuclear facility operations, and possibly remove highly enriched uranium from the country.
- The U.S. would gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.
- Shipping restrictions through the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during the 30-day talks. If negotiations fail, U.S. forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
Axios said talks are being led by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with top Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.
News of this sparked risk on in U.S. equity index futures, WTI fell to the $95-a-barrel handle, and U.S. Treasury yields dipped.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA/WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
US, Iran Deal ‘Closer’ Means ‘Framework’ Still Being Hammered Out For ‘Monthlong’ Talks
\
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 12:05 PM
Summary
- Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war, as Trump post appears to offer olive branch. Other reports say just hammering out at ‘framework’ for ‘monthlong’ talks.
- White House says it expects a response to the latest offer within 48 hours.
- Iran’s initial response via media & national security spox: US demands are unrealistic & do not reflect reality, & Axios report based on too much ‘speculation’.
- A key caveat of the US offered deal is that Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment, & Washington wants a 20-year ban on this; Iran & China FMs coordinate messaging in Beijing, denying Iran’s intent to build nuclear bomb.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 44% · No 56%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
‘Framework’ Being Hammered Out for ‘Monthlong Period of Talks’
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has said that Iran’s response to the United States has not yet been presented to mediator Pakistan, as the WSJ reports that the US and Iranian sides are currently trying to hammer out a one-page memorandum of understanding which features 14-points. This would “lay out a framework” – the report says, for a “monthlong period of talks to end the war.”
Given that agreement cannot even be found on the ‘framework’ for future talks, it seems the process is not very advanced at all – but is perhaps still back at square one, with headlines in the US way out front, and likely overly optimistic.
CNN citing the White House: “The White House received positive feedback from Pakistani mediators on Tuesday that the Iranians were progressing toward a compromise.” And more from WSJ:
Iran’s mission to the UN said that “the only viable solution in the Strait of Hormuz is clear: a permanent end to the war, the lifting of the maritime blockade, and the restoration of normal passage.”
Key Timing of Wang-Araghchi Meeting in Beijing
During Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s visit to Beijing on Wednesday, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi pushed for the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to the fighting. Araghchi echoed the urgency, saying, “Currently, it is possible to resolve the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.” Wang called for a “comprehensive ceasefire” and stressed that “the international community shares a common concern for restoring normal and safe passage through the Strait,” urging swift action.
The coordinated messaging reflects shared economic and strategic interests, especially as US naval actions have disrupted Iranian oil flows to China. Wang also signaled support for Tehran’s position, stating China “appreciates Iran’s pledge to not develop nuclear weapons,” while Iran continues to insist its nuclear program is peaceful and maintains its right to uranium enrichment as a matter of sovereignty.
Wang reinforced Beijing’s stance by warning that “a comprehensive ceasefire brooks no delay” and that negotiations must continue, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to pressure Iran to ease its blockade of the strait.
Alarmed Reaction from Israel
An Israeli official cited in Times of Israel said Israel did not know that President Trump was close to a deal with Iran to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as global headlines pointed to progress. The official said Israel had been preparing for escalation, reflecting recent reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was waiting for US approval to resume its aerial campaign following 38 days of strikes under Operation Epic Fury.
US messaging has shifted rapidly. with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday having announced the end of Operation Epic Fury and a pivot to Project Freedom focused on reopening Hormuz, while Trump later declared a pause to allow negotiations. The mixed signals from Washington created confusion as diplomacy and military positioning unfolded simultaneously.
Both Iran and Israel signaled readiness to escalate despite the diplomatic push. Iran warned its “finger is on the trigger,” while Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said forces have multiple targets prepared inside Iran and remain on high alert. He emphasized ongoing coordination with US forces and readiness to resume a broad campaign if fighting restarts.
END
ISRAEL IRAN/USA
US Navy Jet Fires On Iran-Flagged Tanker Trying To Reach Iranian Port
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 01:15 PM
Summary
- US Navy jet fires on Iran-flagged tanker trying to reach Iranian waters & port.
- Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war, as Trump post appears to offer olive branch. Other reports say just hammering out at ‘framework’ for ‘monthlong’ talks.
- White House says it expects a response to the latest offer within 48 hours.
- Iran’s initial response via media & national security spox: US demands are unrealistic & do not reflect reality, & Axios report based on too much ‘speculation’.
- A key caveat of the US offered deal is that Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment, & Washington wants a 20-year ban on this; Iran & China FMs coordinate messaging in Beijing, denying Iran’s intent to build nuclear bomb.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 44% · No 56%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
US Jet Fires On Iranian Tanker Trying To Pass
So much for that ceasefire and alleged ‘pause’ in US naval blockade actions, as things just took another escalatory turn. In this case, a rare live fire incident unfolded Wednesday in Gulf waters as a US jet launched from the Lincoln carrier fired on and possibly disabled an Iranian-flagged tanker, per the officials US Central Command statement:
U.S. forces operating in the Gulf of Oman enforced blockade measures by disabling an Iranian-flagged unladen oil tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port at 9 a.m. ET, May 6.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces observed M/T Hasna as it transited international waters enroute to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. American forces issued multiple warnings and informed the Iranian-flagged vessel it was in violation of the U.S. blockade.
After Hasna’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings, U.S. forces disabled the tanker’s rudder by firing several rounds from the 20mm cannon gun of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet launched from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72). Hasna is no longer transiting to Iran.
The Pentagon/CENTCOM statement then emphasized, “The U.S. blockade against ships attempting to enter or depart Iranian ports remains in full effect. CENTCOM forces continue to act deliberately and professionally to ensure compliance.” Tehran’s response to this will be interesting, and follows prior alleged attacks this week on the UAE.
‘Framework’ Being Hammered Out for ‘Monthlong Period of Talks’
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has said that Iran’s response to the United States has not yet been presented to mediator Pakistan, as the WSJ reports that the US and Iranian sides are currently trying to hammer out a one-page memorandum of understanding which features 14-points. This would “lay out a framework” – the report says, for a “monthlong period of talks to end the war.”
Given that agreement cannot even be found on the ‘framework’ for future talks, it seems the process is not very advanced at all – but is perhaps still back at square one, with headlines in the US way out front, and likely overly optimistic.
CNN citing the White House: “The White House received positive feedback from Pakistani mediators on Tuesday that the Iranians were progressing toward a compromise.” And more from WSJ:
Iran’s mission to the UN said that “the only viable solution in the Strait of Hormuz is clear: a permanent end to the war, the lifting of the maritime blockade, and the restoration of normal passage.”
Key Timing of Wang-Araghchi Meeting in Beijing
During Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s visit to Beijing on Wednesday, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi pushed for the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to the fighting. Araghchi echoed the urgency, saying, “Currently, it is possible to resolve the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.” Wang called for a “comprehensive ceasefire” and stressed that “the international community shares a common concern for restoring normal and safe passage through the Strait,” urging swift action.
The coordinated messaging reflects shared economic and strategic interests, especially as US naval actions have disrupted Iranian oil flows to China. Wang also signaled support for Tehran’s position, stating China “appreciates Iran’s pledge to not develop nuclear weapons,” while Iran continues to insist its nuclear program is peaceful and maintains its right to uranium enrichment as a matter of sovereignty.
Wang reinforced Beijing’s stance by warning that “a comprehensive ceasefire brooks no delay” and that negotiations must continue, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to pressure Iran to ease its blockade of the strait.
END
DUBAI
their tourism is shattered!
‘We Need People To Come Back’: Dubai’s Tourism Industry Reels As Foreigners Flee
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 03:00 PM
Dubai is facing an existential crisis with the US and Israeli war on Iran forcing tourism numbers to fall sharply, with widespread hotel closures and job losses decimating the global tourism hotspots’ hospitality sector.
On Monday, Dubai Airports reported that first-quarter passenger traffic was down by at least 2.5 million from the same period in 2025, with March seeing a 66 percent drop in passenger numbers as travelers chose to steer clear of the Gulf.
The company did not specify forecasts for this year but on Saturday, in a bid to kickstart tourism, the UAE announced that all air travel restrictions that were put in place after Iran launched retaliatory strikes on all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that house or cooperate closely with US forces had been lifted.
In a post on their official X account, the Civil Aviation Authority wrote: “Our decision came following a comprehensive assessment of operational and security conditions, in coordination with the relevant authorities”. The statement was clearly meant to relay confidence to international travelers, especially after several European airlines announced that they would be suspending flights to the Middle East.
Workers and business owners in Dubai, who spoke to the Middle East Eye on condition of anonymity due GCC-wide restrictions on public statements about the effects of Tehran’s attacks, say it will still take some time to see if the announcement will restore confidence among travelers and investors.
Charity, a Kenyan hotel worker said the mid-priced hotel she works at was definitely affected by the 1.4 million people who travelled through the UAE over the first two weeks of March. During the Muslim month of Ramadan, when Iranian missile and drone attacks were at their worst, the hotel, part of a US-based chain, was full of stranded passengers who would meet with Emirates Airlines representatives in the lobby.
During the month, the hotel’s pool was closed to guests and by the final days, guests staying in the higher floors of the 20-floor building were moved to the lower floors as a precautionary measure. After that, though, she said “things really slowed down for a few weeks”.
She said she hoped the announcement would provide some assurance to travelers. “We’ll see over the next week if people really start to come back,” she said while helping a long-time American traveler. “We need your people [foreign tourists] to come back,” she added.
So far, even longtime passengers say there has been a noticeable shift in the mood at Dubai International, which has been the world’s busiest airport for international passenger traffic for 12 consecutive years.
Samina, a South Asian NGO worker who travels between South Asia, the Gulf and North America, said the change was particularly noticeable in her most recent trips over the two months.
“Coming in, it’s empty,” she said of Terminal 3, home of Emirates Airlines. “Terminal 1 and 2 are ghost towns,” she said of the buildings that are home to other international carriers and FlyDubai, the UAE’s budget airline.
She said international airlines suspending flights to the region have definitely taken a toll on traffic, “Every time you get in, it’s all the same transit passengers.”
According to Dubai Airports, only 51 out of 90 airlines have resumed their operations at the airport, with European and US airlines facing difficulties securing insurance cover due to government travel advisories
‘Ethos of Dubai was shaken’
For its part, Dubai is working hard to support and reassure its residents. Travelling around the city, there is an abundance of UAE flags outside homes and businesses and on digital signs and billboards along the highways.
At the City Walk shopping center there are massive electronic signs thanking UAE residents in Arabic and English. Pictures of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan are emblazoned along major roads with the statement: May our nation remain in God’s protection”. Other signs show Emirati families saluting the flag with the same words.
However, longtime residents and business owners say the impact of the intercepted missiles and drones was felt almost immediate.
Tatiana, a Russian national who runs a logistics company for businesses looking to setup shop in the Gulf, and she said even she was shocked at how quickly the mood shifted for existing and prospective businesses. “Within the first two weeks people [said] it’s no longer worth [living here]. They weren’t scared per se, they just felt like it’s no longer worth it”.
“Businesses were suddenly liquidating their assets.” She said her family was now looking at options in Europe to gradually shift to.
Antoine, an editor who helps train amateur writers said one of his clients who works at an advertising agency was left with the burden of those liquidations. “She was in charge of finding 1,000 workers in the UAE to let go of,” he said. Antoine was particularly struck by the fact that even an advertising firm would be so immediately impacted.
“You’d think advertising would be a war-proof industry,” he said. Tatiana said her work has been particularly affected by the attacks. “Our whole business is predicated on assuring people that the UAE is a safe, convenient place to do business,” she said.
Her statement is almost identical to what Arjun, one of the 3.5 to 4.3 million Indian residents of the UAE, said outside a late evening screening of the Michael Jackson biopic. Arjun said he was happy to see the screening at near capacity, hoping it was a sign of a gradual return to normal. “The entire ethos of Dubai as this place free from conflict was shaken,” he said.
END
MIDDLE EAST/IRAN/HORMUZ
World Starts To “Build” Around Hormuz; Japan Buying UAE Oil Bypassing Strait As ADNOC To Spend $55 Billion On Pipelines
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 03:20 PM
Long after the Iran war is just a bookmark in the history books, one distinct consequence will persist: much of the world, at least the part that does not fall under the Chinese sphere of influence, will do everything it can to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and failing that, have a Plan B. Just like when the Biden admin weaponized the US Dollar in 2022 by booting Russia from SWIFT after the Ukraine war, and in the process started the biggest gold and bitcoin rally in history as the rest of the world parked its savings in non-USD assets, so the world’s most important oil choke point will never again be viewed again in the same way after Iran launched dozens of rockets at the ships transiting it.
This shift in perception is what James Thorne, chief market strategist of WellingtonAltus, called “Iran’s Historic Mistake“; he explains it as follows:
By weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran committed a strategic blunder of historic proportions. Tehran meant to punish America. Instead, it exposed every power built on imported energy, vulnerable sea lanes, and the delusion that globalization repealed geography. China is exposed. Europe is exposed. Britain is exposed. Iran has created a world where hard resource power decides outcomes.
And the punchline:
Iran’s mistake is that once Hormuz becomes structurally unreliable, the world builds around it. That means bypass corridors, revived pipeline politics, and urgent planning for routes linking Aqaba to Mediterranean outlets near Gaza and the long-stalled Basra-to-Aqaba pipeline. The old energy order is cracking. The UAE’s OPEC exit signals cartel discipline giving way to national advantage under pressure.
The full note can be found here, and we didn’t have long to wait to see the world it predicted begin to emerge.
Earlier today, Nikkei Asia reported that Japan agreed to buy an additional 20 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates as Tokyo continues pursuing alternative supply channels amid the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Japan used 2.36 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025, the economy ministry reports. Based on this average, the additional 20 million barrels from the UAE could cover eight to nine days’ worth of demand, so much more is coming.
The deal was finalized Tuesday after Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s minister of economy, trade and industry, met with the Emirati industry minister in Abu Dhabi. Akazawa told reporters after the meeting that he had requested increased oil supplies for Japan.
Roughly 40% of Japan’s crude oil imports comes from the UAE. The Middle Eastern country, which left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday, intends to gradually increase oil production at its own discretion, which could lead to more cooperation with Japan.
Japan will pick up the Emirati oil at the port of Fujairah on the UAE’s eastern coast, which lies on the Gulf of Oman, allowing for crude exports without going through the Strait of Hormuz.
The war in the Middle East — a region on which Japan has relied for more than 90% of its oil supply — has spurred Tokyo to approach other oil producers. It reached a deal last month to procure 1 million barrels of crude from Mexico.
Recently Japan’s government said that around 60% of the oil Japan needs this month can be sourced through channels that do not involve shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with releases from domestic stockpiles covering the remaining 40%.
Expect many more such deals from other Asian countries as passage through Hormuz will be one big question mark for years to come, absent a pro-Western regime taking control in Iran.
Realizing the coming demand flood for its Fujairah-laden oil, and in anticipation of its post-OPEC renaissance, on May 3rd, UAE state energy company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Group, announced plans to award AED200bn (US$55bn) in upstream and downstream project contracts between 2026-28, at the ‘Make it with ADNOC’ forum in Abu Dhabi.
Omar Al Nuaimi, ADNOC’s Acting Group Chief, stated that ADNOC is moving into a new phase of accelerated, world-scale delivery to meet rising global energy demand. ”ADNOC is proud to continue reinforcing our role as a catalyst of the UAE’s industrial growth and an enabler of the Make it in the Emirates initiative,” he told the Emirates News Agency (WAM) on the sidelines of ‘Make it With ADNOC’ Forum, held ahead of the Make it in the Emirates 2026.
”As part of this effort, we announced today at the ‘Make it with ADNOC’ Forum, our plan to award AED200 billion in projects over the next two years as part of our CAPEX approved by the Board in November,” he said, explaining that the planned project awards span ADNOC’s upstream and downstream operations and usher in a new phase of project delivery that will supercharge UAE’s manufacturing capacity, strengthen industrial resilience, deepen the impact of the company’s In-Country Value program and advance the ‘Make it in the Emirates’ initiative.
In a note from Goldman (available here to pro subs), the bank writes that management characterized the announcement as marking the execution phase of its strategy, focused on scale, pace, and delivery to meet rising global energy demand while reinforcing the UAE’s industrial base. The forum convened >400 participants, linking EPC contractors with qualified UAE-based manufacturers under the in-country value program. The award pipeline spans the entire upstream-to-downstream value chain, focusing on:
- Capacity expansion: Scaling of crude oil and gas production capacity alongside deeper downstream integration
- In-Country Value (ICV): Channelling spend through the Local+ program to prioritize UAE-manufactured inputs.
- Supply chain resilience: Localizing critical equipment sourcing to mitigate global disruption and cost inflation risk.
According to Goldman, this announcement represents the first tranche of its previously announced $150BN capex program for 2030. The bank views the announcement as positive for key enablers such as ADNOC Drilling and ADNOC L&S, as they stand to be the primary beneficiaries of the upstream and downstream award pipeline. Furthermore, the signaled US$55bn commitment over 2026-28 serves as a strong signal of ADNOC Group’s expansion roadmap. Goldman sees upside risk to consensus numbers for the key enabler subsidiaries given the potential for accelerated execution timelines and higher-than-guided growth targets as ADNOC ramps up capacity across the value chain.
More in the Goldman note available to pro subs.
ISRAEL TBN
IRAN/ISRAEL
Israel Says Preparing For Escalation With Iran, Didn’t Know Deal Was Close: ‘Series Of Targets Ready’
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 10:15 AM
Wednesday saw yet another early morning Axios ‘scoop’ that within hours of being issued proved premature and too out front, given talk of Iran and the US being ‘close’ to a deal was quickly denied by Tehran and even President Trump quickly acknowledged it’s “too soon” to plan peace talks with Iran.
But the headline of “US and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war” was enough to raise alarm bells in Israel, which has insisted that the conflict must end with a nuclear-free Iran.
“Israel was unaware that US President Donald Trump was close to reaching an agreement with Iran to end the fighting and open the Strait of Hormuz,” an Israeli official told Army Radio soon after the optimistic peace deal headlines went international.
“We were preparing for an escalation,” the official said. Indeed the last couple weeks of stalled Pakistan-mediated talks have seen several reports out of Israel saying the Netanyahu government is waiting for the ‘green light’ from Washington to renew the aerial bombing campaign, which took place over prior 38 days as part of Operation Epic Fury.
But as of Tuesday Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Epic Fury was ending, and that Project Freedom – to open the Strait of Hormuz – is the new focus. But even after that President Trump in the evening announced a ‘pause’ to allow negotiations to proceed.
So there has been much confusion and contradictory signaling out of Washington to say the least. Tehran has meanwhile made clear its “finger is on the trigger” – but Israel is also saying the same thing.
For example, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir on Wednesday made it known that military has a “series of targets” ready to strike in Iran at the moment the war resumes.
“Cooperation with the United States military and coordination continue at all times, and we are monitoring the situation,” he stated during a visit to southern Lebanon, where Israel ground forces are occupying territory.
“In Iran, we have a further series of targets ready for attack. We are on high alert to return to an intense and broad campaign that will allow us to deepen our achievements and further weaken the Iranian regime,” Zamir said further.
As for anti-Hezbollah operations, and despite the Lebanon ceasefire officially in effect, the top military general said: “We will seize every opportunity to deepen the blow to Hezbollah and its continued weakening.”
None of this bodes well for a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon, also as the broader Iran ceasefire is certainly on shaky ground, given this week’s cross-Gulf attacks on UAE out of the Islamic Republic.
END
HEZBOLLAH
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Moscow Targeted By Over 50 Drones, Country’s 2nd Largest Refinery On Fire
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 02:45 AM
We’ve been documenting that Ukraine has been demonstrating deeper targeting reach inside Russia, as several key oil sites have come under direct drone attack over several days and weeks, resulting in significant destruction.
Just in the last several days, Russian state media has recorded over 50 Ukrainian drone attacks targeting the country’s capital of Moscow.
Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin on Tuesday confirmed that since the start of this month, Ukrainian efforts to target the capital region have greatly increased.
The distance of Moscow from the Ukrainian border is nearly 300 miles, but lately Ukraine has also demonstrated the ability of its long-range drones to target as far away as Perm and the Ural Mountains.
“The defense ministry’s air defense assets have downed yet another UAV. Emergency relief specialists are working at the scene, where the debris from the UAV landed,” Mayor Sobyanin stated.
And he detailed, per TASS, that “from May 2 to 5, the capital was attacked by 51 drones. In the current 24-hour period, 19 UAVs have been shot down.”
Also, one of Russia’s largest refineries came under fresh attack on Tuesday, with Oil Price reviewing the following:
One of Russia’s largest oil refineries, the 400,000 barrels-per-day Kirishi refinery southeast of St. Petersburg, was on fire early on Tuesday following drone attacks overnight, Bloomberg reports, citing satellite images from NASA.
According to satellite images taken on Tuesday by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System, the Kirishi refinery owned by oil producer Surgutneftegas and nearby areas were detected to emit heating anomalies which signal fires.
Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region where the refinery is located, posted on Telegram early on Tuesday that the fire at the Kirishi industrial zone has been localized, while the Kirishi refinery was the main target of the drone attacks overnight. The post did not confirm a hit on the refinery, only stating that it was targeted.
Initial footage widely circulating of the overnight attack on Kirishi:
Currently, the globe’s attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well. Earlier in the Ukraine war, these major refinery attacks would dominate world headlines, but at the moment they have remained in the background given the constant Iran-related news flow.
President Putin has lately communicated to Trump that he’s open to a ‘Victory Day’ ceasefire, a proposal the Kremlin said Washington has backed. Ukraine is meanwhile offering its own ceasefire, but on a different set of days, and the warring sides haven’t reached agreement.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
NIH Virologist Vincent Munster Caught Smuggling Deadly Viruses Into U.S., FBI Investigating
Tuesday, May 05, 2026 – 04:20 PM
Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,
Since the COVID pandemic landed on American shores in early 2020, virologists and allied science writers have engaged in a vociferous propaganda campaign to deny the dangers of virus experiments. When Nature Magazine published a 2021 article minimizing a Wuhan lab accident as the pandemic’s cause, science writer Amy Maxmen quoted Vincent Munster, a virologist at the Rocky Mountain Laboratories, a division of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), in Montana.
Munster told Nature’s Maxmen that there was nothing suspicious about a novel coronavirus popping up in the same city as the Wuhan Institute of Virology which was studying coronaviruses. Labs tend to specialize in the specific viruses found around them, Munster explained, and the Wuhan Institute of Virology focuses on coronaviruses because many circulate in China and neighboring countries.
“Nine out of ten times, when there’s a new outbreak, you’ll find a lab that will be working on these kinds of viruses nearby,” Munster told Nature.
Well, kind of. Sort of. But really not.
In fact, virologists regularly collect viruses from far away countries and bring them back to their own cities to study. And according to emails I have seen that are now circulating inside the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), one of those virologists is the NIH’s Vincent Munster.
“We are unable to comment as this is under investigation,” wrote HHS spokesperson, Andrew Nixon in an email. “So we will refer you to the FBI.”
When contacted about their investigation into Munster and his NIH researcher, the FBI press office replied by email, “We decline to comment.”
While on a trip back from the Democratic Republic of Congo earlier this year, Munster and a scientist in his NIH lab were pulled aside for an airport security inspection. Inside their luggage, one of the two had a hard-shelled protective case used to transport sensitive property such as electronics and firearms. When the protective case was opened, it was found to contain pathogen samples collected from patients.
However, the human pathogens, which included monkeypox virus, may have been inactivated by reagents and rendered no longer infectious.
Munster and his NIH research fellow Claude Kwe Yinda published a February study in a Lancet journal that cited monkeypox as a global threat. Without any hint of irony, they warned about “multiple travel-associated cases reported since 2024, including seven in the USA.” The Democratic Republic of Congo has been considered the global epicenter of monkeypox virus, with over 100,000 cases as of October last year.
HHS regulates monkeypox as a “select agent”—microorganisms and toxins that pose a severe threat to public safety. Federal programs control their possession and use, while Department of Transportation regulations manage their shipment and transport.
Munster and his lab scientist did not have paperwork required by law to transport deadly pathogens from Africa to his NIH lab in Montana. Both NIH scientists were placed on leave. Contact information for both Vincent Munster and Claude Kwe Yinda have been removed from the HHS employment directory.
Last year, the Department of Justice charged two Chinese nationals with criminal conspiracy for smuggling a dangerous plant fungus through a Detroit airport so they could study it in a lab at the University of Michigan.
Munster did not return repeated requests for comment sent to his NIH email asking him to explain if the monkeypox and potentially other viruses he was transporting had been inactivated or were still infectious. According to his bio at NIH’s Rocky Mountain Labs in Montana, Munster has field study sites in the Republic of the Congo to study Ebola virus with collaborators at the Wildlife Conservation Society and the Laboratoire National de Santé Publique in Brazzaville.
Rocky Mountain Labs is an integral part of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the institute once led by Tony Fauci. The Montana facility has a BSL-4 lab where virologists study the world’s most deadly viruses including Ebola, Marburg, and Lassa Fever.
Andrea Marzi, the Acting Chief of Virology at Rocky Mountain Labs, did not return emails asking if the monkeypox and other possible viruses Munster was transporting had been inactivated or were still infectious. Nor did she reply to requests asking if Munster’s lab had been secured.
Senator Rand Paul sent the NIAID director a letter two years ago regarding Munster, who was listed as a partner for a project called DEFUSE that was submitted in 2018 to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). As part of DEFUSE proposal to DARPA, virologists planned to engineer novel viruses by taking the backbone of a bat virus and inserting a spike protein with a furin cleavage site. A furin cleavage site allows viruses to infect the cells of human lungs.
DARPA denied funding for DEFUSE, but the following year, a novel bat virus with a furin cleavage site began infecting humans in Wuhan. No other virus closely related to the COVID virus has this furin cleavage site.
Shortly after the COVID virus began infecting Americans, Columbia University virologist Vincent Racaniello sent Munster an alarming February 2020 email, saying he had heard that the new COVID virus had a furin cleavage site “that might have been engineered.”
“If true this is very bad for all of virology research,” Racaniell wrote to Munster.
“And the fun begins,” replied Munster.
The news about Munster hits during an especially hard media cycle for virologists. I reported last week for RealClearInvestigations that the federal government had quietly removed University of North Carolina virologist Ralph Baric from all his NIH grants; UNC also placed Baric on leave. A senior HHS official, who reviewed the government’s classified material, told me that UNC is terrified the public will learn that they were complicit in starting the COVID pandemic.
“Baric designed the gun,” he said. “But the Chinese built it, and then they pulled the trigger.”
That same day, the Department of Justice indicted Tony Fauci’s senior advisor, David Morens, for concealing federal records concerning funding for virus research during the COVID pandemic. The indictment listed Peter Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance as “CO-CONSPIRATOR 1” and Boston University virologist Gerald Keusch as “CO-CONSPIRATOR 2.”
Last month, I reported on newly unearthed emails that show Morens, Daszak, and Keusch plotted against me for writing a 2021 investigation for the BMJ that concluded virologists had conspired in a misinformation campaign to cover up a possible Wuhan lab accident as the COVID pandemic’s cause.
In emails discussing me and my 2021 article, Keusch asked Morens and Daszak if they knew how to get in contact with former BMJ editor Peter Smith to complain. Daszak emailed back that contacting the BMJ about me was “a really good move” as my reporting was “pretty offensive stuff.”
END
GLOBAL ISSUES; WEATHER/EL NINO
Meteorologists Sound Alarm Over El Nino Plume Racing Across Pacific Like “Freight Train”
Tuesday, May 05, 2026 – 11:00 PM
Meteorologists on X are once again warning about a powerful El Niño, pointing to a new plume of warm subsurface water moving across the Pacific “like a freight train.” The latest water temperature data suggest that El Niño later this year could rank among the strongest on record, with potentially significant implications for the Lower 48.
“Updated El Niño forecast for this summer/autumn is ‘off the charts’ EXTREME with ‘boiling red’ map colors along Equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean,” meteorologist Ryan Maue wrote on X. He said this is “code red the Earth’s climate system going into Summer 2026,” which only means “suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity.”
Updated El Niño forecast for this summer/autumn is “off the charts” EXTREME with “boiling red
” map colors along Equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This is “Code Red” for the Earth’s climate system going into Summer 2026 –> suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity
Meteorologist Ben Noll said, “A brand new El Niño plume from ECMWF reaches +3˚C in most scenarios by November, which would put this event among the strongest on record.”
Noll continued, “A freight train of warm water continues to chug across the subsurface Pacific Ocean.”
If a super El Niño materializes, it could shift weather patterns worldwide, increasing the risk of flooding in some regions, drought and wildfires in others, and further raising global temperatures. An El Niño event typically strengthens the Pacific jet stream and redistributes heat and moisture globally.
Across the U.S., an El Niño influences seasonal rainfall, especially during winter. The stronger, more active jet stream typically shifts southward, bringing wetter-than-average conditions to the southern U.S., including California, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-South.
The good news is that El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, April 27-May 4, 2026
TikTokker Kiersten Dyke (25, C); rapper Cleetis Mack; comics writer Gerry Conway; Bishop Calvin Scott; bluesman Jeffrey Taylor; footballer Josh Mauro (35); TV medical reporter Liz Bonis (C); and more
| Mark Crispin MillerMay 6 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES (84)
TikTok Star Kiersten Dyke’s Partner Reveals Heartbreaking Update After Her Years-Long Treatment
May 2, 2026
A young TikTok creator spent years letting her followers into every corner of her cancer journey, through surgeries, setbacks, and small victories. How Did Kiersten’s Cancer Journey Begin? It started with something easy to dismiss. On December 16, 2022, Kiersten had a suspicious mole removed from her upper left back. The very next day, after receiving a pneumonia vaccine, she suffered a severe allergic reaction that sent her straight to the critical care unit, where she remained for a full week. She made it home just before Christmas, but her recovery was far from over. For the five months that followed, she remained on oxygen. Then, on December 22, she received the diagnosis that changed everything: the mole was malignant melanoma. Surgery came fast. On January 6, 2023, her doctor at the time removed the mole but made the call not to perform a lymph node dissection. In her documented TikTok timeline, she wrote plainly, “That ended up being a huge mistake.” Less than a month later, on January 31, her diagnosis was upgraded to stage 2B. Her surgeon performed a lymph node excision, removing several lymph nodes from her left armpit. The rest of 2023 was defined by hospitals … She also made clear that her situation was never straightforward: pre-existing health conditions, ones she had been managing before cancer entered the picture, made her case significantly more complicated than a standard melanoma diagnosis. January 6, 2024, marked one year since her first surgery, and Kiersten celebrated it with news her followers had been waiting for. She was NED, no evidence of disease. But autumn brought a new concern. On October 23, a routine PET scan flagged a 5mm non-specific nodule. Working with both her surgeon and oncologist, she advocated for having the nodule removed, guided by intuition and, practically speaking, by her plans to begin college classes in the spring semester. When it came out, it was not a nodule at all. It was a lymph node. “I knew instantly that wasn’t good,” she wrote, “but I wanted to enjoy Christmas.” And she got her Christmas. Then, on December 26, she sat across from her surgical oncologist and heard the words stage 3 metastatic melanoma … By April 16, she had made it through three of her seventeen planned rounds, though she acknowledged the side effects were becoming harder to manage, describing them as increasingly debilitating. Still, ten days later, on April 26, she posted a message that her community held onto: “I’m not letting cancer control my life. I’m in control.” Unfortunately, nearly a year after that post, on April 10, 2026, Kiersten returned to TikTok with a video update that was both composed and devastating. Her cancer had shown “extremely rapid growth everywhere,” with her bones as the primary site of spread, a pattern, she explained, that her melanoma had consistently followed and one that made her case especially difficult to treat. “By no means am I done fighting; I’m just exhausted,” she insisted. She said that from that point forward, quality of life would be her focus. Living would come first. She closed the video simply, “I love you all. Bye.” Sixteen days after that video, Dominic (her partner) confirmed on Instagram that Kiersten had died on April 26. She was 25 years old. “There are no words to truly describe how special of a human Kiersten was,” he wrote. “She was such a joy and brought light into every room she walked into.”
Digital Underground Rapper Cleetis Mack Dies Suddenly
April 28, 2026
Digital Underground member Cleetis Mack has died, TMZ has learned. A rep for the alternative hip-hop group known for kicking off Tupac Shakur’s career tells us Mack passed suddenly … adding his death “leaves a void in our Digital Underground family and in our hearts that can never truly be filled.” A cause of death has not been revealed … his age at the time of his death is unclear. Founding member Shock G died suddenly in April 2021.
Gerry Conway, ‘The Punisher & The Amazing Spider-Man’ writer, dies at 73
April 27, 2026
Gerry Conway has a legendary reputation in the comic book world. However, at age 73, the comic book writer passed away. Marvel Comics confirmed the industry titan’s death in a sorrowful statement. It is immediately unclear what the cause of death of the comic giant is. Though he beat pancreatic cancer in 2023 after suffering from it in 2022.
No cause of death reported.
Bishop Calvin Scott, founding pastor of Believers Temple and community advocate, dies at 67
April 29, 2026
St. Louis, MO – Bishop Calvin Scott was a builder, a bridge-maker, and a steady voice for North County whose ministry reached far beyond the pulpit. Scott – founding pastor of Believers Temple Word Fellowship, civic leader, and a spiritual anchor for North County for more than three decades – died on April 16, 2026, after complications from ALS. He was 67. His service also included the Community Advisory Committee for the Riverview Gardens School District, where he advocated for students and families with the same urgency he brought to the pulpit.
Researcher’s note – Riverview Gardens School District encouraged COVID “vaccination”, and hosted “vaccine” clinics for all ages authorized to be injected: https://www.facebook.com/RGSDSchools/posts/covid-19-vaccine-clinic-at-rghs_official-on-friday-jan-14-open-to-the-public-for/5528594540500411/
Jeffrey Taylor, Milwaukee bluesman and educator, dies at 64
May 1, 2026
A former Milwaukee-area [WI] educator and founding member of a local blues band died on April 30 at age 64. Jeffrey Taylor, a former principal at West Allis Central High School and previously at West Milwaukee Intermediate School, founded the Altered Five Blues Band in 2002, according to a press release from Blind Pig Records. Taylor died unexpectedly and in his sleep, the band’s Facebook page said. The band released eight albums; its most recent release was “Hammer & Chisel,” which came out Feb. 27. Multiple albums of theirs charted on the Billboard Blues Chart, Blind Pig Records said. The band performed in 13 countries, according to Blind Pig Records, including a trip to Asia this year.
No cause of death reported.
Josh Mauro Death Reason: Ex-NFL Player Dies At 35; Cause Of Death Revealed In Family’s Statement?
April 29, 2026
The sports world has been struck with heartbreaking news as former NFL defensive player Josh Mauro has passed away at the age of 35. His family confirmed the news in an emotional statement, revealing his untimely death. The exact cause of Josh Mauro’s death has not been officially disclosed by his family. While they have requested privacy during this difficult time, there has been online speculation on platforms like Reddit suggesting he may have been battling ALS (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease).
Three broadcasters “died suddenly”:
Liz Bonis cause of death: All on Local12 Cincinnati medical reporter’s colon cancer battle
May 1, 2026
Liz Bonis [69], long-time medical reporter for WKRC-TV Local12 in Cincinnati, Ohio, has passed away after a battle with colon cancer. Local12 confirmed that Bonis has passed away in an obituary on Thursday (April 30) evening. Liz Bonis was diagnosed with colon cancer in 2023 and battled it bravely for the last three years while continuing to report for Local12. She took part in clinical trials of cancer drugs during the course of her treatment and encouraged others to do so, Local12 revealed in their obituary. Many of her reportages were focused on clinical trials of key cancer and other drugs. However, she did not make her diagnosis public. In the obituary that was published by Local12, the organization remembered Bonis’ advocacy work for clinical trials. The obituary reveals that despite the battle with colon cancer, Liz Bonis was working at the newsroom at Local12 till her very last days.
Researcher’s note – Casts and crews on productions will have to show proof of COVID booster [sic] shots under updated guidelines: https://ktla.com/news/local-news/casts-and-crews-on-productions-will-have-to-show-proof-of-covid-booster-shoots-under-updated-guidelines/
Beloved West Texas Radio Host Chad Hasty Has Passed Away
April 30, 2026
Lubbock, TX – News/Talk 95.1 & 970 KFYO and Townsquare Media are deeply saddened to share the news that longtime host, beloved personality, and Lubbock institution Chad Hasty passed away peacefully in his sleep on Thursday morning. He was 43 years old. Chad joined Lubbock radio in 2003 and soon became the voice of KFYO’s morning show. In 2021, The Chad Hasty Show moved to late afternoons, where he continued informing and entertaining audiences across the region.
No cause of death reported.
Hockey Broadcaster John Garrett Dies Suddenly at Age 74
April 29, 2026
Veteran hockey broadcaster and former NHL goaltender John Garrett was found deceased in his Salt Lake City hotel room on the afternoon of Monday, April 27, 2026. The 74-year-old was on assignment for Sportsnet covering a playoff series between the Utah Mammoth and Vegas Golden Knights at the time of his passing. Sportsnet announced the death on Tuesday, noting that no official cause has been provided for the sudden loss. Garrett had transitioned to a national broadcast schedule three years ago after spending two decades as a staple of Vancouver Canucks regional telecasts.
Researcher’s note – NHL to require everyone that interacts with club personnel to be vaccinated [sic]: https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nhl-require-everyone-interacts-club-personnel-vaccinated/
Heartbreaking tale of Kentucky Derby long shot So Happy whose trainer’s wife died of heart attack at 57 just months ago
April 30, 2026
SO HAPPY would make trainer Mark Glatt exactly that with a career-defining win at the Kentucky Derby this weekend. But this remarkable underdog story is playing out amid a backdrop of heartache and sadness. So Happy was a personal favourite of Glatt’s wife, Dena, who watched him romp to victory in the San Vincente Stakes in January. Weeks later, she died of heart failure aged 57. Now Glatt is taking So Happy to the most famous flat race in the Western world with hopes of honouring his late wife, who would have been roaring him all the way home.
Adria Hight, Eldest Daughter of John Force, Dies at 56
May 2, 2026
Adria (Force) Hight, the eldest daughter of 16-time NHRA Funny Car World Champion John Force and former Chief Financial Officer of John Force Racing, died peacefully on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, in Indianapolis, Indiana. She was 56 years old and surrounded by her family at the time of her passing, as reported by Artvoice. An official cause of death has not been disclosed, but private services are planned for Terre Haute, Indiana, followed by a celebration of life in California later this year.
Former Madera mayor Santos Garcia passes away at 69
May 3, 2026
MADERA, Calif. – Action News has learned former Madera mayor Santos Garcia passed away this weekend at the age of 69. The Madera County Sheriff’s Office confirms Garcia died on Saturday, May 2, from natural causes at Madera Community Hospital. Garcia served as mayor from 2020 to 2024 and was a retired letter carrier after 32 years.
No cause of death reported.
Oklahoma Senate Candidate Barry Christian Found Dead Inside Vehicle 2 Days After He Was Last Seen
May 1, 2026
Oklahoma State Senate candidate Barry Christian has been found dead two days after he went missing, local authorities confirmed. He was 54. Police in Beckham County located his vehicle in the Sandy Sanders Wildlife Management Area on Thursday, April 30, around 9:45 a.m. local time. He was said to be inside a 2024 gray Ram pickup truck, KOCO reported. His remains were taken to the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, which will determine his cause and manner of death. Christian was reported missing on Wednesday after he didn’t show up to a meeting, local station News 9 reported, citing authorities.
An infant “died suddenly”:
Nova Onestee Cannon, 6 months
April 18, 2026
Dulin, GA – Beautiful Baby Nova Onestee Cannon was born on October 3, 2025. She entered the world with so much joy and brought light to everyone around her.
No cause of death reported.
Two teenage sisters “died suddenly” within 2 weeks:
Reported on April 6:
Cassandra Malia Cassidy, 15
April 6, 2026
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
NEWSWIZE
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Give Peace A Chance
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 12:15 PM
By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank
It was TACO Tuesday again in the United States this week as President Trump announced that he was pausing Operation Freedom “for a short period” after it had been underway for just one day. Channelling John Lennon, Trump indicated that progress in negotiations with Iran had convinced him to ‘give peace a chance’, but that the US blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place for now.
The Dow Jones, S&P500 and NASDAQ all closed higher and US stock futures are pointing to further gains. Asian stocks are mostly higher with the KOSPI breaching 7000 for the first time and Samsung joining the USD 1 trillion market cap club. Bond yields are mostly lower but UK Gilts are a conspicuous outlier in that respect, with the 10-year up 9.7bps to 5.06% and the 2-year rising even further. The Dollar is down, the VIX is down, spot gold is a little over 1% higher and Brent crude (July contract) has fallen to $108.46/bbl at time of writing.
Trump characterized the pause as coming in response to requests from Pakistan and others and told media that the indefinite ceasefire was still in effect despite Iranian strikes on the UAE port of Fujairah, commercial shipping, and US destroyers engaged in guiding commercial ships through the Strait over the last 24 hours.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said that the operation which began on Monday was purely defensive, stating that “we’re not looking for a fight”. Trump had earlier characterized the effort as a “humanitarian gesture” to free trapped merchant mariners who were running short of provisions, but there is undoubtedly an added element of seeking to ease the squeeze on commercial shipping supply chains by bringing the 1,600 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf back into the active shipping fleet.
As Operation Freedom was put on hold, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a White House news briefing that Operation Epic Fury had already concluded, thereby sidestepping a legal requirement for Trump to seek congressional approval to extend military action beyond 60 days. Given that fire was still being exchanged with Iran as recently as yesterday, many will see this as little more than a legalistic wheeze – which it may be – but the administration is clearly content to keep up the pressure on Iran through Scott Bessent’s ‘Economic Fury’ initiatives of direct sanctions, naval blockade, disruption of the Iranian shadow fleet, and secondary sanctions on countries providing support to the Iranian military. The US has also imposed sanctions on five Chinese ‘teapot’ refineries believed to be engaged in trade of Iranian crude.
Trump’s announcement on Operation Freedom coincides with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi today travelling to Beijing to meet with counterpart Wang Yi. This comes ahead of Trump’s planned trip to China next week to meet with President Xi, where discussions over the Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are sure to be at the top of the agenda.
Might we expect some kind of grand bargain whereby China takes more assertive action to rein in its Iranian allies, aided perhaps by Vladimir Putin’s willingness to provide enrichment services for civilian purposes on Iran’s behalf and to take custody of Iran’s existing stocks of near-weapons-grade uranium? Might this also involve a Ukraine war component foreshadowed by recent unilateral ceasefire announcements from both Moscow and Kiev, at the prompting of the US?
Araghchi – along with President Pezeshkian and House Speaker Ghalibaf – is a member of the civilian government and viewed as a moderate in comparison to the hardliners of the IRGC. IRGC leader Vahidi has previously been critical of Araghchi for being too willing to do a deal with the US to end the war and re-open the Strait. As the US blockade remains in place and Iranian oil is prevented from flowing to market, storage capacity is filling up and raising the prospect that Iranian wells will need to be capped, with risks of permanent damage to oil production.
Effectively, Iran and the US are playing chicken with global energy supply chains. Iran is enduring damage directly from Economic Fury but is holding a metaphorical gun to the heads of US allies in Europe and Asia, who are facing looming shortages of key commodities and the consequent negative effects on growth, employment and inflation. The question remains: who will blink first?
This hostage dynamic is not lost on RBA Governor Michele Bullock who yesterday told journalists in Sydney that “Australian’s are poorer because of this shock to oil prices… We are poorer, and there’s no way out of that.” Bullock delivered this grim prognosis after the RBA lifted the Australian policy rate by 25bp to 4.35%. This was the third-consecutive rate hike from the RBA and brings the cash rate equal to the previous cycle high that was reached in the aftermath of the COVID-19 and Ukraine War supply shocks.
Bullock characterized the new posture of monetary policy in Australia as “a bit restrictive” and indicated that the Board feels that it has given itself a bit of breathing space to pause and assess the unfolding impacts of the Iran war, and what the implications will be for growth and inflation. However, she also noted that the RBA’s updated economic projections are predicated on the war ending “soon”, and the Strait of Hormuz reopening. If that doesn’t happen, markets will start to ponder whether recession risks or rising inflation expectations will dominate RBA rate-setting decisions in the months ahead.
Australia was carrying substantial inflation momentum into the Iran shock as three rate cuts in 2025 and continued strong government spending conspired to pump up demand growth in late 2025 and saw the economy quickly hit the rev limiter. With one more 25bp rate hike priced into the futures curve Australia now faces the prospect of a cash rate cycle peaking higher than the previous cycle for only the second time in more than 30 years.
This reflects what is happening in the 10-year bond yield where the 40-year bull market than ran from the early 1980s through to 2022 looks to be well and truly over and the new cycle might be higher highs and higher lows, like it was during the 1970s when oil shocks, trade protectionism and great power competition characterized the international environment. Sound familiar?
For her part, Bullock will be hoping that Trump and the Iranians do ‘give peace a chance’ so she can avoid those adverse scenarios and stick to the comparatively benign but still far from ideal baseline outlook that the RBA has adopted.
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS COMMENTARIES
U.S. Gasoline Tops $4.50 As “Shock & Awe” Level Approaches
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 09:40 AM
WTI futures plunged more than 11% to the $90-a-barrel level after Axios reported earlier this morning that the U.S. is nearing a preliminary agreement with Iran to end the war. The sharp decline suggests traders are beginning to price in a potential geopolitical de-escalation and the potential reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint.
At the pump, however, the latest AAA data as of Wednesday morning show that the national average for regular 87-octane gasoline has climbed to $4.50 a gallon, the highest level since July 2022.
There will be a lag. Even if the Trump administration and Tehran formalize a deal in the near term, the immediate result will not be a collapse in gas and diesel pump prices, but rather an approaching peak.
Lower crude prices typically take a few weeks to work through wholesale markets, inventories, distribution networks, and retail outlets before meaningful declines in gas and diesel are visible at pump stations to consumers.
During a Monday press conference, Trump said he expects the price of gasoline to drop “substantially” following the end of the US-Iran war.
“I see it going down very substantially when this is over, I think very rapidly too, at levels that you’ve never seen because there’s a lot of energy out there, ships all over the world that are loaded up with it,” Trump said.
“They can’t do much with it because they got kidnapped by a pretty evil place. But we’re taking care of it.”
Last week, Trump said pump prices would “come crashing down as soon as this war is over.”
GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan warned that the $5-a-gallon threshold is typically the “shock and awe” level that triggers demand destruction.
With the national average for gas already near $4.50 a gallon, and California prices above $6, the political and consumer pressure backdrop for the Trump administration has intensified in recent weeks.
The administration now appears to be pushing hard for a near-term Iran resolution ahead of Memorial Day weekend, one of the largest U.S. driving periods of the year after Thanksgiving.
JPM-Oil-Price-Timeline.jpg 1,111×692 pixels
This JPM chart is most worrying.
According to Google AI reports that for every $10 increase in price for a barrel of oil, Diesel fuel rises about 30 cents per gallon. For gasoline it is $.20-30. Clearly each week of delay is an increase in fuel costs. And with this the price of all goods rise because it costs money to move goods. Increased fuel costs translates into higher costs for everything. And that assumes that goods actually move. The day may well come that it will not pay for trucks to move.
Other oil Traders are saying June is critical for supply. In this game of dice with the global economy one must factor in not just when and if the Strait is reopened but how long before ships can take on oil and reach their ports to unload. It can take several weeks between the time a ship is loaded and when it reaches its’ destination.More likely than not we will see higher costs for everything. And it is an unknown what this means to actual economic development. What is clear is that higher prices will seek an equilibrium in demand by sheer price and the ability to pay. And those countries not already locking in alternative supply may well be out of luck in 45 days finding out they are stuck curtailing all manner of commerce.
END
WTI Holds Rebound Gains As US Fuel Exports Hit Record High, Production Dips, Huge SPR Drain
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 10:40 AM
Oil prices are lower overnight (but dramatically off their lows) amid on-again, off-again optimism of an imminent US-Iran peace deal.
Benchmark Brent fell as much as 12% to $96.75 a barrel in London, while West Texas Intermediate dropped up to 13%. European natural gas plunged as much as 14%.
Oil and gas later pared about half of those losses after Trump said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday that if Iran doesn’t agree, “the bombing starts.”
Overnight we saw huge across the board drawdowns in US energy inventories reported by API (and a huge SPR drain). All eyes on the official data this morning…
API
- Crude -8.1mm (-2.8mm exp)
- Cushing -1mm
- Gasoline -6.1mm
- Distillates -4.6mm
DOE
- Crude -2.313mm (-2.8mm exp)
- Cushing -648k
- Gasoline -2.504mm
- Distillates -1.294mm
For the second week in a row, US inventories saw significant declines across the board with products seeing the biggest draws. Crude’s drawdown was a modest disappointment (especially after API’s big report)…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, crude stockpiles remain elevated (but are drawing down)…
Source: Bloomberg
Perhaps most notably, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is seeing massive drawdowns to support the global loss of supply from Hormuz.
Source: Bloomberg
On the back of that draw, Bloomberg’s energy guru, Javier Blas, dropped this stunning chart showing that, on a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have recovered to their pre-war level due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. Of course, that’s helped by massive stock drawdowns / SPR drain, but still…
Additionally, last week saw US crude exports actually decline (after nearing the unprecedented level of 100 million barrels in 7 days). The decline in crude cargoes headed overseas pulled down overall US oil and fuels exports from record high levels also set the week earlier, even as fuel exports rose to the highest weekly level ever.
Source: Bloomberg
The US has sent out at least 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day since the week of April 3.
US crude production continued to trend lower…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI fell dramatically below $100 overnight but amid Trump’s ‘bombastic’ comments and Iranian denials, pries are well off their lows
“The oil price is reacting on shift in sentiment instead of market balances, driven by news of a potential deal between the US and Iran,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich.
“It remains unclear when flow through the strait would resume.”
Still, any breakthrough in peace talks will take much longer to filter through to energy markets.
“When the Strait opens we do believe it will take half a year for oil to get back to normal,” Equinor Chief Financial Officer Torgrim Reitan said on the company’s quarterly earnings conference call.
“For gas, it will take much longer.”
And that’s important for the Midterms…
The 4-week moving average for US gasoline implied demand ticked higher week-on-week, but the more volatile weekly data showed a weekly decline and dipped below the 5-year average.
It is too early to tell, but elevated gasoline prices could be finally eating into demand.
Trump has repeatedly claimed prices will come down rapidly once the Strait is reopened – we shall see.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA/ALBERTA
Alberta Separatists Say They Have Enough Signatures To Force Referendum On Leaving Canada
Tuesday, May 05, 2026 – 04:40 PM
A group pushing for Alberta to break free from Canada announced Monday that it has submitted nearly double the number of signatures required to force a referendum — which could come as early as October. While Alberta Premier Danielle Smith opposes independence, she has assured Albertans that she will not try to thwart a referendum if the signature hurdle were cleared.
Triggering a referendum requires 178,000 signatures, but the separatist organization Stay Free Alberta says it amassed more than 301,000. As in the United States, referendum organizers usually aim to far overshoot the required number so as to survive challenges on the validity of individual signatures.
On Monday, the group’s leader, Mitch Sylvestre descended on Alberta’s election offices in Edmonton with the petitions, aboard a convoy seven trucks strong. Celebrating the accomplishment, he likened it to Canada’s favorite sport. “This day is historic in Alberta history,” he said. “It’s the first step to the next step — we’ve gotten by Round 3 and now we’re in the Stanley Cup final.”
Despite Sylvestre’s triumphalism, the independence drive could hit a snag this week, as a judge may rule on a challenge of the referendum filed by a First Nations group. That term is used to describe indigenous people who are not Inuit or Métis. Their legal challenge centers on the claim that Albertan independence would deny them privileges afforded them by treaties. The verification of referendum-support signatures has been stayed pending the decision. However, Stay Free Alberta attorney Jeff Rath said these are mere speed bumps. “As far as we’re concerned, whatever the court does or whatever Elections Alberta does at this point is meaningless,” he told CBC, given the premier can’t ignore more than 300,000 signatures.
Alberta has been on the wrong end of a Canadian policy called “Equalization” — a more palatable term than what it should be called: “Wealth Redistribution.” According to the Canadian government’s official description, Equalization “address[es] fiscal disparities among provinces.” It does so by distributing the fiscal fruits of federal taxation to provinces in such a way that poorer provinces get more money than more-prosperous ones. Alberta is easily Canada’s best-off province on a per-capita basis.
A victory for the “yes” side of the referendum won’t guarantee independence, as more legal challenges will certainly sprout up, to say nothing of the thorny negotiations with the Canadian government that would be required — negotiations that could be slow-walked by Albertan leaders who aren’t enthused about breaking away.
For those and other reasons, some who support independence are wary of how the referendum will play out. For example, even if the pro-independence side prevails, the waters could be muddied by the results of concurrent referendum questions. Writing at the Brownstone Institute earlier this year, Bruce Pardy painted a picture:
If voters support independence but also other constitutional changes, what do they mean? Which should be pursued first? Which is the last resort? What if voters support independence but also support Alberta having the right to opt out of federal programs while retaining federal funding? Both of those things cannot happen. One requires that Alberta be a province, and the other requires that it not be. Any referendum result that requires interpretation is not clear.
A pro-unity group called Forever Canadian has been active too, racking up more than 400,000 signatures on a petition that asked, “Do you agree that Alberta should remain within Canada?” Meanwhile, polls show an uphill climb for the separatists, with huge differences between United Conservative Party and New Democratic Party voters:
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
CANADA//CHINA
this will just about kill the Canadian car industry:
(Rowan Brian/EpochTimes)
Industry Leaders Warn Chinese EV Imports Will Undercut Canada’s Auto Sector, Bring Major Security Risks
Tuesday, May 05, 2026 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Paul Rowan Brian via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A number of industry leaders and policy experts are warning that the government’s permission of importing Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) into Canada at low tariff rates will undermine Canada’s auto sector and cause a number of substantial national security risks.
The warnings came in testimony before the House Committee on Industry and Technology, where the speakers said that Ottawa’s quota-based access to Chinese EV makers will make Canada vulnerable to unfair trade practices from Beijing, hollow out the country’s already-struggling auto industry, and bring along a host of security risks associated with data collection and surveillance.
“Let’s be clear, this is not the approach Canada wanted,” Michael Kovrig, head of the Global Network for Strategic Effects, said while testifying May 4 before the committee.
EV Deal
The import of Chinese-made EVs comes under the terms of an agreement between Ottawa and Beijing signed in January of this year that allows the import of up to 49,000 Chinese-made EVs in the first year at a tariff rate of 6.1 percent, down from 100 percent.
Ottawa has indicated the quota could rise to approximately 70,000 vehicles per year over the next five years.
As part of the agreement, Beijing moved to cut tariffs on Canadian agricultural exports, slashing tariffs from 84–100 percent on Canadian canola products to 15 percent and relaxing restrictions on other products including seafood and peas.
Ottawa also said it expects China will invest in the Canadian auto sector and possibly set up auto manufacturing inside Canada as part of the wider agreement.
Canada opened permits for Chinese-made EVs on March 1, under which 24,500 will be allowed until August under the 6.1 percent tariff rate. Permits are issued by Global Affairs Canada and last 60 days before expiry. Importers are required to be Canada-based automakers or agents of them, and vehicles must comply with Canadian safety standards.
Ottawa said it plans to review and potentially change how the import system works after the first six months.
‘Trifecta of Risks’
Kovrig said that allowing Chinese-made EVs into Canada causes a “trifecta of risks,” which he described as creating “structural dependence” on China, along with “unfair competition [that] erodes industrial capacity” and imposing a “systemic pressure” on government policy going forward.
“The real question is not, ‘don’t we want cheaper EVs?’” Kovrig said. “It’s whether Canada wants to be a producer in the future auto economy, or merely a consumer market for vehicles produced by China’s industrial system.”
Kovrig’s concerns were echoed by Brian Kingston, president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association.
“There are no guardrails in this agreement to ensure a level-playing field for manufacturers that have invested in Canada, or to protect Canadians from cybersecurity risks,” Kingston told MPs.
Kingston added that demand for EVs is closely tied to government incentives rather than free-market forces, and that serious harm could be done to the North American auto supply chain.
“Demand for EVs is directly related to rebates, and we saw it when the previous federal government rebate went away, we saw demand for EVs decline quite significantly,” he said, adding that import of Chinese-made EVs “will undermine the auto sector and presents risks to the North American auto supply chain.”
Canada’s auto sector remains a major part of the economy and directly employs roughly 125,000 workers, the majority of whom are employed in Ontario. More than 90 percent of Canadian-made vehicles are exported to the United States.
Kingston also said that keeping access to the U.S. market is crucial for Canada and “there is no industry without U.S. access,” saying that opening up to Chinese imports could undermine North American integration.
In mid-January, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canada’s deal with China was “problematic.” This was followed on Jan. 24 by U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to put 100 percent tariffs on Canadian goods in response to the deal.
Controls
Several Liberal MPs on the committee asked questions about the economic and security issues related to importing Chinese-made EVs, stating that it could help Canadian consumers access more affordable vehicles and move Canada closer to climate goals.
For her part, Liberal MP Lisa Hepfner asked whether Canada could put conditions on Chinese firms, such as on domestic labour, security, and standards, in order for them to be allowed to import the vehicles.
Kingston said such an approach won’t work.
“If you say that you have to have a local supply chain and use local unionized labour, the response from a Chinese OEM [Original Equipment Manufacturer] is, ’thanks, but no thanks,’” he said.
“The moment they want more access, they will restrict our exports of canola. They’ll come up with other reasons to leverage more access into the market. This is the Chinese trade playbook. You can see it in sector after sector in different countries,” he added.
Kovrig shared this view, saying that Beijing tends to use a quota as a “ratchet” to force more market access.
“What begins as a capped quota becomes a ratchet that only expands. Concentrated sectoral economic dependence also constricts federal policy-making autonomy,” he said.
“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] weaponizes technology, supply chains, and market access to coerce independence to its geopolitical agenda.”
He added that “forced labour” is also part of the Chinese EV supply chain and cited evidence from Sheffield Hallam University linking forced labour of China’s ethnic Uyghur population to key battery and EV production stages.
Kingston added that even if China were to build a factory in Canada, it would likely be a human rights and economic disaster.
“If they build a plant, they bring in labour from China. And as we’ve seen in Hungary, the conditions have been characterized as slave-like conditions,” he said, referring to a Chinese-operated factory in Hungary.
Benefits of EVs
Several industry leaders who testified before the committee said EVs would be a net positive for Canada.
Jeff Turner, director of Mobility at Dunsky Energy and Climate Advisors, said EVs would help Canadians in various ways, including by bringing “almost $2,000 per year in fuel savings per household and reductions of GHG emissions and other emissions that have significant health impacts for Canadians.”
Cherith Sinasac of the Electro-Canada Foundation also emphasized her view of the positive role that EVs could have and said their origin is much less important than infrastructure readiness.
“Canada needs a strong long-term EV charging infrastructure strategy,” she said, adding that there must be a coordinated investment strategy by provinces and economic sectors.
“EVs and their battery storage have the potential to be a national energy asset for our grid,” Sinasac said.
Security Risks
Kingston and Kovrig both said that in addition to economic damage, bringing in Chinese-made EVs could pose security risks, including potential data access concerns and dangers to national security.
“China’s 2017 National Intelligence law compels any Chinese firm, including from overseas operations, to share data with Beijing on demand,” Kovrig said. “There’s no judicial review and no challenge mechanism.”
Kovrig described Chinese-made EVs as “a rolling computer with cameras” that are “state-linked data platforms.”
This echoed similar concerns from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who stated his opposition to allowing Chinese-made EVs into Canada this past January, writing on X that such vehicles “function like roving surveillance systems on our streets [and] should not be allowed in Canada – collecting data, tracking Canadians and exposing us to a foreign regime.”
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1769 UP 0.0054
USA/ YEN 155.92 DOWN 1.747 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3627 UP 0.0060 OR 60 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3578 DOWN 0.0026 CDN DOLLAR UP 26 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 48.01 PTS OR 1.17%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 315.17 PTS OR 1.22%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.72%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 315.17 PTS OR 1.22%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 48.01 PTS OR 1.17%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.72%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4698.00
silver:$76.88
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.23 PLUS 1 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 75.72 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 23 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9560 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.624 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.614 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.267 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY MORNING: 98.33 UP 7 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.356% DOWN 12 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.509% DOWN 0 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.719 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.418 DOWN 12 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.751 DOWN 14 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.9925 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1755 UP 0.0040 OR 40 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.23 DOWN 1.445 OR YEN IS UP 145 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.9470 DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.639DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 5 BASIS pts to 1.3610
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The USA/Yuan CNY XXX TO XX ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.8283
TURKISH LIRA: 45.22 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.361.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.941 DOWN 4 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.878 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4685.30
SILVER AT 10;00: 77.00
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 219.55 PTS OR 2.15%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 516.94 OR 2.12%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 237.11 PTS PTS OR 2.94%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 436.60 PTS OR 2.47%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 1139.25 PTS OR 2.35%
WTI Oil price 96. 54 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 103.44 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 74.81 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 69 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.527 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.175 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1754 UP 0.0040 OR 40 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3597 UP 0.0030 OR 30 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.9440 DOWN 0 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.629 DOWN 6 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.506 UP 0 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.719 UP 0 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.36 DOWN 1.310 OR YEN UP 131 BASIS PTS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/YEN FALLING DEEPLY IN VALUE
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3632 UP 0.0028 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 28 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 94,97
Brent OIL: 101.08
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS pts to 4.348
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 4 PTS to 4.939%
USA 2 YR BOND 3.863 DOWN 8 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.511 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.159 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 97.84 DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.21 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 74.75 UP 0 AND 75/100 roubles //
GOLD $4698.50 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 77.48 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 612.34 OR 1.24%
NASDAQ 100 UP 584.04 PTS OR 2.08%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.32 DOWN 0.06 PTS OR .35%
GLD: $ 430.90 UP 12.63 PTS OR 3.02%
SLV/ $70.13 PTS UP 4.22 OR OR 6.40%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 492.34 PTS OR 1.28%
end
TRADING EARLY MORNING NEW YORK:
Oil & Yields Drop, Stocks & Crypto Pop As Iran ‘Truce’ Holds, US Micro/Macro Strong
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
“Gold Jumps, Dollar Dumps As AMD & Imminent Iran Deal Lift Stocks & Bonds, Sink Oil
XXX
WRAP UP:
Stocks rally and crude slumps as hopes build towards end of war – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 03:24 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: US and Iran are reportedly closing in on one-page memo to end war; Iran still working on its response; Iranian reports downplay reports that US & Iran are close to an agreement; Trump says that Project Freedom will be paused for a short period to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed, blockade will remain; Iranian and Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministers stressed continuing diplomacy; Israeli strikes Beirut for first time in weeks; Japan is reportedly to purchase 20mln barrels of UAE oil; AMD surges on earnings beat; ADP beats
- COMING UP: Data: Australian Balance of Trade (Mar), German Factory Orders (Mar), French Balance of Trade (Mar), EZ Construction PMI (Apr), EZ Retail Sales (Mar), US Challenger Job Layoffs (Apr), US Jobless Claims (May 2), Atlanta Fed GDP, Mexican Inflation (Apr). Events: Norges Bank Policy Announcement (May), Riksbank Policy Announcement (May), CNB Policy Announcement (May), Banxico Policy Announcement (May), CBR Minutes (May), UK Local Elections, BoJ Minutes (Mar). Speakers: ECB’s de Guindos, Elderson, Schnabel, Lane; BoE’s Lombardelli, Mann, Taylor; Fed’s Hammack, Williams, Kashkari; Norges Bank’s Bache; Riksbank’s Thedeen. Supply: Spain, France. Earnings: CoreWeave, IREN, Coinbase, Cloudflare, DraftKings, ACM Research, Datadog, McDonald’s, Shell, Enel, Rheinmetall.
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks rallied while crude prices tumbled on Wednesday as reports throughout the session suggested the US and Iran are moving closer towards a deal to end the war. US and Pakistani media remained notably more optimistic than Iranian outlets, although progress still appears to be building. President Trump said talks have gone well and suggested he wants a deal completed before travelling to China next week, although he later added there is “never a deadline”.
The improving geopolitical backdrop saw Brent crude slump from highs near USD 109/bbl to below USD 97/bbl at lows, although prices later pared some of the decline to settle back above USD 100/bbl.
The sharp move lower in oil prices supported Treasuries across the curve in a steeper fashion, with front-end yields leading the decline as inflation expectations eased and markets priced in greater Fed easing expectations.
In FX, petro currencies such as CAD and NOK underperformed amid the sharp decline in crude, while the Dollar lagged as haven demand unwound. Gold prices rose as yields and the dollar declined, while Bitcoin posted modest gains.
In equities, sectors were broadly firmer outside of Energy and Utilities. Technology rallied, buoyed by gains in semiconductors after AMD rallied post-earnings.
US
US ADP: The monthly ADP National Employment Report showed jobs rose by 109k in April, above the 79k forecast and up from 62k previously. The reading was within the analysts’ forecast range of 40-170k. Dr Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said: “Small and large employers are hiring, but we’re seeing softness in the middle. Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labour environment.” Goods-producing industries added 15k jobs, while services added 94k. On wages, the median change in annual pay for job stayers rose 4.4%, versus 4.5% previously, while pay for job changers rose 6.6%, unchanged from before. Despite the strong report, analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the data was too unreliable to bank on a labour market upturn.
Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter, hawk) said tailwinds from accommodative financial conditions currently outweigh headwinds facing the US economy. He noted uncertainty around tariffs and war remained headwinds. There are also plausible scenarios at this point that would lead to both rate cuts and rate hikes. On inflation, Musalem warned it remained meaningfully above target. Alongside tariff and oil shocks, he said there was underlying inflation the Fed needed to address. Nonetheless, he said risks existed to both mandates, though risks had shifted more towards inflation. Musalem described current policy settings as either neutral or slightly accommodative in real terms. Elsewhere, the St Louis Fed president said consumers and companies alike were struggling with higher and rising prices. He stressed that achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation target was the best thing it could do for growth and employment. Returning inflation to 2% would allow rates to come down further. Firms, meanwhile, are not hiring because of the ongoing uncertainty.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 14+ TICKS HIGHER AT 110-25+
T-notes bull steepen led by the front-end as reports hint at progress towards the end of the war. At settlement, 2-year -8.3bps at 3.863%, 3-year -8.7bps at 3.887%, 5-year -8.8bps at 3.995%, 7-year -8.4bps at 4.170%, 10-year -7.6bps at 4.350%, 20-year -6.7bps at 4.926%, 30-year -5.2bps at 4.939%.
THE DAY: T-notes rallied across the curve with yields tumbling, particularly in the front-end, amid reports that the US and Iran are working towards a proposal to end the war. Optimism was echoed across the US and Pakistani media, although the Iranian press attempted to downplay the progress. Nonetheless, reports suggest the two sides are discussing a 14-point framework, although negotiations still appear ongoing.
Markets reacted positively to the headlines, with equities rallying, crude prices tumbling, and Treasuries surging. The sharp decline in oil prices helped ease inflation concerns while also boosting expectations that an end to the conflict could be nearing. Officials have repeatedly warned that the longer the war persists, the greater the upside risks to inflation.
US data once again took a back seat to geopolitics. ADP employment showed 109k private payrolls added in April, above both the prior 62k and the 79k forecast. However, Pantheon Macroeconomics reiterated that ADP remains an unreliable guide for Friday’s NFP report and cautioned against reading too much into the stronger print.
The Quarterly Refunding Announcement was largely in line with expectations, although the TBAC minutes hinted at a potential guidance adjustment as soon as the next refunding cycle (more below).
Overall, the ADP report and refunding details had a limited impact on Treasury trade, with price action continuing to be dominated by geopolitics and the sharp decline in crude prices. T-notes ultimately settled firmly in the green, albeit off session highs.
SUPPLY
Quarterly Refunding
Auction sizes were left unchanged, in line with expectations, while the Treasury also maintained its forward guidance, continuing to state that “based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.” Some desks expected a tweak to the language, with Barclays looking for guidance to shift to “at least the next few quarters.” Although no change was made at this meeting, the TBAC minutes imply the guidance could be adjusted as soon as next quarter. [For full review, please click here.]
Bills
- US sold 17-wk bills at high-rate 3.605%, B/C 3.13x
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Pricing: Dec +2.8bps (prev. +7.9bps)
- EFFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 113bln (prev. USD 111bln) on May 5th
- SOFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 3.148tln (prev. USD 3.113tln) on May 5th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 1.633bln (prev. 1.12bln) across 7 counterparties (prev. 6) on May 6th
CRUDE
WTI (M6) SETTLED USD 7.19 LOWER AT USD 95.08/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLED USD 8.60 LOWER AT USD 101.27/BBL
The crude complex saw significant losses on Wednesday, given the seemingly improved US/Iran dialogue. In the European morning, which catalysed oil plummeting, Axios reported, citing officials, that the US and Iran are reportedly closing in on a one-page memo to end the war, and the White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations. Following these upbeat reports, which Pakistani journalist Mallick echoed, saying “US – Iran are close to an “agreement” to end the war with Pakistan’s mediation…”, Iran continually poured cold water on the closeness of a deal, which saw benchmarks come off extremes, but still significantly lower on the session. Highlighting this, Al Araby, citing Iranian sources, said: “What US media outlets are publishing about the details of the negotiations does not reflect the reality of what is happening”. All in all, while the US, in the main, and Pakistan seem more positive on a resolution, Iran does not, and the US seemingly wants to avoid any restarting of widespread strikes, but Trump did threaten, “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before”. As such, focus resides on any further diplomatic solution or any breakthrough in the 14-point peace plan. Elsewhere, and for the record, crude and distillates saw shallower draws than anticipated in the weekly EIA data, with gasoline a larger-than-expected draw. Overall, crude production was down 13k W/W to 13.573mln. Highlighting the breadth of energy moves, WTI traded between USD 88.66-102.70/bbl and Brent USD 96.75-109.02/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +1.46% at 7,365, NDX +2.08% at 28.599, DJI +1.24% at 49,911, RUT +1.47% at 2,887
SECTORS: Energy -4.07%, Utilities -1.45%, Health +0.08%, Consumer Staples +0.08%, Financials +0.50%, Real Estate +1.35%, Consumer Discretionary +1.37%, Materials +1.88%, Communication Services +2.05%, Technology +2.56%, Industrials +2.60%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +2.52% at 6,018, Dax 40 +2.24% at 24,949, FTSE 100 +2.15% at 10,439, CAC 40 +2.94% at 8,299, FTSE MIB +2.35% at 49,697, IBEX 35 +2.47% at 18,104, PSI +1.12% at 9,267, SMI +1.77% at 13,283, AEX +1.67% at 1,031
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- AMD (AMD): EPS & rev. beat w/ better than exp. guidance driven by accelerating data centre growth & strong demand for processors and GPU shipments
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Profit beat w/ stellar next Q & FY outlook as demand for AI servers remained robust
- Corning (GLW) announced long-term partnership w/ NVDA to strengthen US manufacturing for AI infrastructure.
- Anthropic committed to spend $200bln w/ Google Cloud (GOOGL) over 5yrs under recent agreement.
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Rev. light & lowered FY26 production outlook.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO): Net sales, EBIT & Wegovy sales all beat.
- CVS Health (CVS): Top & bottom-line surpassed Wall St. exp. alongside lifting FY profit view
- Cencora (COR): Q metrics light
- Disney (DIS): Solid Q report
- Uber (UBER): Stellar outlook offsets quarterly metrics
- GlobalFounrdries (GFS) upgraded at Susquehanna to ‘Positive’ from ‘Neutral’
- Arista Networks (ANET): Q1 metrics beat, as did guidance, but persistent supply constraints, near-term growth challenges & steep valuation prompted investors to step back.
FX
The dollar was broadly lower as geopolitical reporting pointed towards the US and Iran nearing a deal to end the war. USD tracked oil lower, on two main updates. US President Trump announced that Project Freedom will be paused for a short period to see whether or not the agreement with Iran can be finalised and signed, and Axios reported that US and Iran are reportedly closing in on a one-page memo to end the war. That said, Iranian media, via sources, downplayed the Axios report; the US blockade remains, a gap remains on the nuclear issue, and Iran’s response still awaits, all of which casts doubts on a deal being finalised. Separate from geopolitics, ADP showed 109k private jobs added to the economy above the expected 79k, ahead of the NFP report on Friday. Fed 2028 voter, Musalem, noted that plausible scenarios at this point could lead to both rate cuts and rate hikes. Attention on the Trump meeting with Chinese President Xi on 14-15th this month, in which Trump said today a deal with Iran may be reached before then, but later said that there is never a deadline on Iran, but a deal will be done. DXY troughed at 97.625 before bouncing alongside the oil move to just above 98.00.
CAD and NOK weakened against USD, dragged down by the slump in oil prices, which slumped on geopolitical optimism. USD/CAD rose marginally to ~1.3635 despite the Canada Ivey PMI rising to 57.7 (exp. 49.9), its highest level in seven months.
NZD rallied the most amongst G10 FX as risk sentiment, while USD/JPY hit lows of 155.03, beneath last week’s low of 155.56 in the wake of the JPY intervention. Continued sharp drawdowns have been seen; however, no confirmation of further invention has been issued. USD/JPY trimmed some of the swift downside, now trading around 156.37.
USA DATA RELEASES
ADP Employment Report Signals Biggest Job Additions In 15 Months In April
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 08:23 AM
With non-farm payrolls looming, we get another glimpse at the labor market today from the ADP Employment Report which shows the US economy added 109k jobs in April (a slight disappointment relative to +120k exp). That is the tenth straight month of job additions and strongest monthly addition since January 2025…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Goods-producing jobs rose 15,000 while Service-providing jobs rose 94,000.
“Small and large employers are hiring, but we’re seeing softness in the middle,” said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.
“Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labor environment.”
Health care’s continued strength, along with a rebound in trade, transportation, and utilities, fueled last month’s acceleration in hiring.
Pay growth for job-stayers slowed slightly to 4.4 percent, but for job-changers, year-over-year pay gains were steady at 6.6 percent.
Is the economy transforming from ‘no hire, no fire’ to ‘higher hire, still no fire’ gains (see JOLTS’ record hiring).
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
HE SHOULD WIN THE GUBERNATIONAL RACE AGAINST COVID NAZI ACTON HUGEL IN NOVEMBE
(ZEROHEDGE)
Ramaswamy Wins Ohio GOP Gubernatorial Primary In Landslide
Tuesday, May 05, 2026 – 11:53 PM
Biotech entrepreneur and former 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy just beat the pants off of political newcomer Casey Putsch (R) by a margin of 82% – 18% (approximately 530,000 votes to 116,000) in the Ohio gubernatorial primary.
The win positions Ramaswamy to face Democrat Amy Acton, the former Ohio health director who led the state’s COVID-19 response and won her party’s nomination unopposed, in the November general election. Acton’s running mate is former Ohio Democratic Party chair David Pepper.
The Republican primary lacked suspense after Ramaswamy, 40, secured early endorsements from President Trump and the state party. Still, the scale of his victory surprised some observers given his relatively recent entry into Ohio politics.
Ramaswamy announced his candidacy in February 2025 after stepping down from his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the Trump administration initiative he co-led with Elon Musk. He has framed his gubernatorial bid as a natural extension of that work – bringing a “startup mindset” to Columbus to make Ohio a national leader in innovation, economic growth, and government efficiency.
His campaign was exceptionally well-funded. Ramaswamy raised more than $25 million from donors and contributed another $25 million of his own money, ending the primary with over $30 million in cash on hand — resources he used for a $10 million television ad blitz in the final weeks. The spending underscored his determination to lock down the nomination early and build momentum for the fall.
Still, the scale of his victory was notable given lingering divisions within the GOP base over one of his signature policy positions: H-1B visas.
Calling the system ‘badly broken,’ Ramaswamy has called for replacing it with a pure merit-based system designed to attract the world’s top STEM and technical talent, insisting this is essential for U.S. competitiveness against China – except he shat on Americans in saying so. In a widely discussed December 2024 post, he attributed American companies’ preference for foreign-born engineers partly to cultural factors, writing that the U.S. has “venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long” and that immigrant families often prioritize achievement more rigorously than “normal” American households.
Critics, including some Trump supporters and anti-H-1B voices, accused him of wanting to displace American workers and favoring foreign (particularly Indian) talent. His primary opponent Casey Putsch and online influencers amplified claims that Ramaswamy’s companies had previously used the program (filing for 29 H-1B visas historically) while publicly criticizing it. The backlash intensified after Trump’s endorsement, with some MAGA accounts posting comments like “Better work on your H-1B visa.”
His brief tenure at DOGE ended when he resigned to pursue the Ohio governorship, a move some critics viewed as opportunistic but which supporters praised as prioritizing state-level impact. Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement on the night Ramaswamy launched his campaign gave him instant credibility with the GOP base.
Democratic Side and General Election Outlook
Amy Acton, 60, has positioned her campaign around affordability – targeting inflation, gas prices, and housing costs. The fact that she was a lockdown nazi during COVID, however, remains a potential vulnerability in a state that has trended strongly Republican in recent cycles.
Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor in nearly two decades. Yet early polling has suggested the general election could be closer than the state’s partisan lean might indicate, particularly if national headwinds affect Trump-aligned candidates or if Acton successfully mobilizes suburban and independent voters.
The race is already shaping up to be one of the most expensive gubernatorial contests in Ohio history.
END
U.S. Debt Hits WWII Levels as Your Cost of Living Keeps Climbing
by ITM Trading
Tuesday, May 05, 2026 – 17:29
U.S. public debt just crossed GDP for the first time since we were funding World War II. That’s the headline. Here’s what they’re not telling you.
The credit rating agencies are already preparing the next downgrade. The 30-year is pinned at 5%. And the debt has quadrupled since the last time yields were this high. The math doesn’t work, and the people running it know the math doesn’t work.
This isn’t a recession setup. It’s a reset setup. The stealth default is already underway. You’re just being paid back in dollars worth less than the ones they borrowed.
How long do you think the rest of the world keeps playing along?
About ITM Trading: ITM Trading has spent nearly 30 years helping clients prepare for monetary resets, inflation, and systemic risk using physical gold and silver. We focus on education, historical context, and strategies designed to protect wealth when trust in the system breaks down.
END
CALIFORNIA/DEL MONTE
ROBERT H TO US:
Calif. farmers to clear 420,000 peach trees after Del Monte bankruptcy
What a waste!!
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 6, 2026 Issue 7736 | Independent View of the News |
| Another Trump Tuesday (Night) TACO! One day after threatening to blow Iran off the face of the Earth! Trump: Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran (Umpteenth time!), we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed… (‘Pakistan made me do it!’) @aimz0320: Market Manipulation Monday, Taco Tuesday, Wimp-out Wednesday, Talk-tough Thursday, Fill-boots Friday (see Market Manipulation Monday) Weekend off for golf. @AFP: UAE air defenses ‘actively engaging’ with missiles, drones coming from Iran: ministry Fox: US intercepts 6 ships trying to run American blockade during operation to open Strait of Hormuz https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-intercepts-6-ships-trying-run-american-blockade-during-operation-open-strait-hormuz @MOSSADil: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threaten escalation in the Strait of Hormuz… “We warn all vessels planning to transit the Strait of Hormuz that the only safe passage is the corridor previously announced by Iran. Any diversion of ships to other routes is dangerous and will result in a firm response from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards navy.” The warning comes as the US works to restore commercial shipping after Iran shut the vital waterway. Iran attacked the UAE for a second straight day. But traders ignored the negative news because they were determined to play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. So, stocks and bonds rallied moderately in early trading on Tuesday; energy commodities fell sharply. Precious metals rose sharply. Of course, The Nasdaq 100 led the rally due to the AI Bubble and the insatiable desire of traders great and small to speculate on something. Contrary to the adage ‘The stock market is not the economy,’ the stock market and asset inflation IS THE US ECONOMY NOW! Trickle down from the Fed via the wealth effect and escalating government deficit spending are the engines of the US economy. ESMs vacillated between small gains and small losses from their 18:00 ET opening until they broke higher after 22:00 ET. ESMs then plodded to 7261.75 at 6:32 ET. After a retreat to 7248.75 at 6:18 ET, ESMs commenced the rally for the NYSE opening and a Turnaround Tuesday. The momentum peak for ESMs occurred at 10:09 ET (7283.50). ESMs then arduously but intractably grinded to a daily high of 7299.75 (+69.50) at 15:25 ET. ESMs rolled over. At 15:47 ET, ESMs broke down and fell to 7283.00 at 15:55 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESMsto 7386.75 at 16 ET. March Trade Balance -$60.3B, -$61.0B exp; Imports 2.3% m/m, 2.8% exp, Exports 2.0% m/m as exp. April S&P Global US Services PMI 51, 51.4 exp, Composite PMI 51.7, 52 exp April ISM Services Index 53.6, 53.7 exp, Prices Paid 70.7, 73.7 exp, New Orders 53.5, 57.3 exp, Employment 48, 48.3 exp March JOLTS Job Openings 6.866m, 6.850m exp; Quits .17m, 3.029m exp, Quit Rate 2.0%, 1.9% exp @uscensusbureau: Sales of new single-family houses in March 2026 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 682,000. (660k exp) This is 7.4% above the revised February 2026 estimate of 635,000. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html Positive aspects of previous session Fangs and AI-related issues soared. The S&P, Nas 100, and Nasdaq hit all-time highs. USMs were +18/32 at the NYSE close. Oil and gasoline declined sharply on the eternal hope that an Iran-US deal was nigh. Negative aspects of previous session The AI Bubble continues to recklessly inflate, aided & abetted by Team Trump. Precious metals rallied sharply – they have been doing so when bonds decline. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How long will the US-Iran Kabuki Dance continue? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7255.37 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7273.26; 7233.62 More Wall Street Leverage Won’t Help Main Street by The Editors of Bloomberg News Just three years ago, regulators suggested that the biggest banks needed about 19% more capital to protect against potential losses. Now, after a furious industry reaction and personnel changes at key agencies, they’re recommending a decrease of some 6% in aggregate, in hopes of reducing complexity and boosting lending…. Even with freed-up capital, moreover, it’s far from clear that banks will start making more loans to Main Street. Instead, some are looking to expand trading units, return money to shareholders and make new acquisitions. They’ll also be tempted to lend more to their nonbank competitors, which already make up their fastest-growing loan segment… https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/05/02/wall-street-leverage-wont-help-main-street @infraa: Today’s rally in the S&P 500 had the lowest volume in more than a year. The last time volume was this low was Feb 18th, 2025. Within two days, the S&P would start its 19% decline. https://x.com/infraa_/status/2048855734902022643 Today – Trump’s latest TACO Tuesday ignited manic buying of ESMs and NQMs on Tuesday night. ESMs hit 7320.00 (+32.75) at 18:52 ET. NQMs hit 28422.00 (+286.00) at 18:49 ET. But sellers appeared. So, ESMs are +17.75 and NGMs are +145.50 at 21:28 ET. Energy traders once again are not buying the hype about an Iran deal. Gasoline is -2.29c and WTI Oil is -$1.32 at 21:30 ET. Expected Economic Data: ADP Employment Change 120k; St. Lous Fed Pres Musalem 9:30 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 13:00 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 6836; 100-day MA: 6866; 150-day MA: 6828; 200-day MA: 6738 DJIA 50-day MA: 47,856;100-day MA: 48,440; 150-day MA: 47,945; 200-day MA: 47,255 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (7259.22 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6391.57 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7139.85 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7238.39 triggers a sell signal Four of the five Indiana state senators that voted against redistricting Indiana Congressional Districts (to spite Trump and to honor Pence) lost their primaries in landslides. This is a warning to RINOs to engage Dems and fight their policies or hit the road! FAA employee charged with threatening to kill President Trump: DOJ The man, identified as 35-year-old Dean DelleChiaie, allegedly used his government work computer to conduct various internet searches in January about how to get a gun into a federal facility and previous assassination attempts against the president. https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/faa-employee-charged-threatening-kill-president-trump-doj US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says offensive stage of Iran war is ‘over’ https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c1wz2ld4535t @StateDept: SECRETARY RUBIO: Iran has always said they don’t want a nuclear weapon but they never meant it. We know this because they’re doing all the things you’d do if you want a nuclear weapons program… Iran isn’t acting like they want a civilian nuclear program for power plants. They import enriched material. They’re acting like they want a military nuclear program. … There’s no problem between the Lebanese government and the Israeli government. The problem for both of them is Hizballah… The problem with Israel and Lebanon is not Israel or Lebanon — it’s Hezbollah. Hezbollah operates from inside of Lebanese territory; they terrorize and attack Israelis, but they also are inflicting tremendous damage on the Lebanese people… @nicksortor: MULTIPLE high ranking DC police officials are set to be TERMINATED for manipulating crime data, pretending violent crime was dropping DRAMATICALLY prior to President Trump’s takeover https://x.com/nicksortor/status/2051724526975943067 NYT: Fear and Vigilance Are Now Constant Companions for Many American Jews Each new attack, like the London stabbings last week, brings a heightened sense of caution to an already wary population… A survey by the American Jewish Committee, a nonprofit, found this year that more than half of American Jews said they had changed their behavior out of fear after high-profile attacks in 2025, including the arson attack at the home of Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and the killing of two Israeli Embassy aides outside a Jewish museum in Washington, D.C…. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/us/jewish-antisemitism-violence-attacks.html?unlocked_article_code=1.gFA.nqIn.VtL_2nPM9-yL Woman Charged with Terrorism for Allegedly Setting Fire to Texas GOP Office Conservatives have faced a wave of political violence in recent years… https://dailycaller.com/2026/05/04/woman-charged-with-terrorism-for-allegedly-setting-fire-to-texas-gop-office/ | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
It Just Keeps Happening Over And Over Again…
Wednesday, May 06, 2026 – 12:45 PM
Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,
Another illegal migrant, handed legal status under Biden-era policies, is charged with brutally murdering two women in New York — one a hardworking mother of two, the other his own roommate.
The victims were stabbed multiple times in the neck and torso in what authorities describe as an anger-fueled rampage.
Open borders policies didn’t just fail these women. They enabled their killer to stay here legally and strike.
The suspect, 22-year-old Rony Yahir Alvarenga Rivera, entered the United States illegally as an unaccompanied minor at age 12 roughly a decade ago. He was released into the country with no supervision.
In 2022, the Biden administration granted him legal status through a program that automatically handed papers — believed to be in the form of a green card — to unaccompanied minors already here.
.com/ImMeme0/status/2050685802330693913?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2050685802330693913%7Ctwgr%5Eaac0e83485666449c7e5af665d9b80d73a32ec42%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fit-just-keeps-happening-over-and-over-again
Now he stands charged with first- and second-degree murder in the killings of Eddy Raquel Hernandez Castillo, 32, and Ana Maria del Aguila-Cordova, 42.
Both attacks happened early Friday morning on Long Island. Ana Maria del Aguila-Cordova, a mother of two young children including a one-year-old, was stabbed to death outside a Wendy’s in Island Park while taking out the trash. She was Rivera’s coworker.
Hours later, his 32-year-old roommate Eddy Raquel Hernandez Castillo was found dead in their shared apartment building in Valley Stream. Nassau County Police Chief Patrick Ryder confirmed: “Both females were killed by multiple stab wounds to the neck and torso.”
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who is also a candidate for governor of New York, did not hold back. In a press conference covered widely on X, he directly blamed failed immigration policies:
“This didn’t have to happen. This is a policy that has resulted today in two women being killed. They could’ve gone on to have very productive and happy lives. But they’re no longer with us because of failed policies in the past.”
Blakeman continued, “Why are we letting people who aren’t documented into our country?” Noting that this “unaccompanied minor” was able to “run around without any supervision whatsoever,” and then automatically get legal status.”
He highlighted the absurdity of the 2022 federal program that handed legal status to unaccompanied minors already in the U.S. and praised Nassau County’s use of the 287(g) program, a federal partnership with ICE that has removed over 2,000 illegal migrants with criminal records. Blakeman noted that New York Governor Kathy Hochul wants to abolish it.
This isn’t an isolated tragedy. It is the direct, predictable result of years of open borders insanity that prioritizes foreign invaders over American safety.
CALIFORNIA
The Golden State Has Fallen: Welcome To The Islamic Republic Of California
Tuesday, May 05, 2026 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Rabbi Michael Barclay via American Greatness,
On April 8, the California Assembly Committee on Public Employment and Retirement voted 19–0 to adopt AB2017, followed on April 22 by the California Assembly Committee on Appropriations, which voted 7–0 to adopt the bill. And with those votes, all that is left for this to become California law is the passing of it by the State Assembly and Senate and approval by the governor.
And with it, the state of California will no longer exist as we know it, but will become the Islamic Republic of California.
Introduced by California Assemblyman Matt Haney (D-San Francisco 17th District) at the behest of CAIR, the bill seeks to officially recognize the Islamic holidays of Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha as California state holidays.
There are no holidays from other religions that are recognized as state holidays in California.
Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur, Ash Wednesday, Good Friday, and Epiphany are all extremely important holidays in Judaism and Christianity.
But none of them are recognized as California state holidays.
But according to Haney and the California legislature, apparently, Islamic holidays are much more important to the state than either Judaism or Christianity.
This bill is clearly unconstitutional, as it is in direct contradiction to the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof . . .”
By placing two Islamic holidays as official state holidays, they are respecting the establishment of a specific religion. But the problem is greater than just their violation of the Constitution in attempting to pass this bill.
The holidays themselves, Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha, are expressions and manifestations of the very worst aspects of Islam.
Eid al-Fitr marks the end of the Islamic month of Ramadan and is the penultimate celebration of the month and its meanings. Ramadan is the month-long holiday commemorating Mohammed’s first vision in 610 CE, in which he supposedly was visited by the angel Gabriel (named Jibril in Arabic) in a cave near Mecca and given a revelation that ultimately became the Quran. It is a month of fasting and a national holiday in countries such as Iran, Turkey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other Muslim theocracies.
It is also traditionally the month of war in Islam. Although war is forbidden in the Quran during four other months (the 1st, 7th, 11th, and 12th), it is not only allowed during Ramadan; it has historically been encouraged to be a month of initiating war against “infidels.” The Yom Kippur War against Israel in 1973 was started by the Arabs during Ramadan. Three years ago, Ismail Haniyeh, who was considered the political leader of Hamas (and who lived in Qatar until killed in July of 2024 and had a net worth of over two billion dollars), called for all Arabs to attack Israel during Ramadan and to siege and blockade the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and have continual mass riots there. Ramadan, going back to Mohammed himself, is the time to start wars on non-Muslims and is a source of Islamic pride as the time to forcefully convert the world to Islam. The Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s official arm in Syria, has even described Ramadan as “a month of conquests.”
Some historical examples of the Islamic intention during Ramadan include the Battle of Badr, a victory led by Mohammed himself in the second Ramadan; the conquest of Mecca, 6 years after Badr; the war for Andalusia in 711 CE; the Battle of Ain Jalut against the Mongols; and the Battle of Hattin during the Crusades.
And that’s just in the first 200 years of Islamic history.
But Matt Haney and the California Legislature want to make this holiday, which is about military victory over non-Muslims, into an official state holiday!
And then there is the second Islamic holiday that they want to make an official state holiday: Eid al-Adha, the “Feast of the Sacrifice.” This is a holiday about being willing to violently sacrifice and kill if it is commanded by Allah. It includes throwing stones at a wall to symbolize the willingness to fight for the “will of God” by stoning Satan and exemplifies the observant Islamic belief in stoning when “required.” Animals are also sacrificed as part of this holiday’s celebration. And this is not a small sacrifice of one chicken for an entire community, but rather, the expectation is that each Muslim will perform animal sacrifices.
In Bangladesh, 13 million animals are sacrificed each year; in Pakistan, more than nine million; and globally, it is estimated that approximately 50 million animals are sacrificed each year for this Islamic holiday.
Each year, this holiday causes the death of 50 million animals and encourages the practice of stoning anything that is contradictory to the Quran, Hadith, and Islamic theology. And this is the holiday that Haney and his Democratic colleagues in the California State Legislature want to make into an official state holiday.
War, stoning, and animal sacrifice—these are the values that have been unanimously approved by the committee, and are on track to becoming approved by the California government.
Yom Kippur is a Jewish holiday about the value of being self-reflective and atoning for our personal sins. Epiphany is a Christian holiday celebrating the baptism of Jesus; Good Friday deepens the Christian faith as it honors the sacrifice of Jesus on the cross for all of humanity; and Ash Wednesday reminds Christians of the journey of Jesus during Lent that leads to the Resurrection on Easter. Atonement, spiritual awareness, faith in God: these are values that the State of California rejects as holidays while honoring the Islamic values of war and death.
With the passing of this bill, which is not certain but is highly likely, California will officially have gone off the cliff, rejecting Western civilization in favor of officially adopting Islamic practices and values.
Rest in peace, California. We will miss you.
END
MINNESOTA
DOJ Sues Minnesota To Block Climate Lawsuit Targeting Energy Companies
Tuesday, May 05, 2026 – 07:15 PM
Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is suing Minnesota over the state’s own climate lawsuit against major energy companies.
The complaint, filed Monday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota, accuses state officials of trying to impose their own climate policies on domestic energy producers in a way the DOJ says burdens national energy development and intrudes on federal authority.
The underlying lawsuit was filed in 2020 by Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison against Exxon Mobil, the American Petroleum Institute, Koch Industries, and Koch subsidiary Flint Hills Resources. Minnesota brought the case under state consumer-protection laws, alleging that the companies engaged in fraud and deceptive business practices by misleading the public about “climate change and the role of fossil-fuel products in climate change.”
That lawsuit remains pending after years of procedural fights over whether it belongs in state or federal court. Minnesota succeeded in keeping the case in state court in 2024, after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to review a lower-court ruling allowing the lawsuit to proceed there.
In its new complaint, the DOJ argues that authority over national energy policy and major questions involving greenhouse gas emissions rests with the federal government, not individual states. The department is asking the court to block Minnesota from pursuing the 2020 lawsuit and prevent the state from bringing similar litigation in the future.
“Climate change lawsuits, like Minnesota’s, artfully plead around federal law while transparently seeking to change national energy policy related to global greenhouse gas emissions and to regulate conduct beyond local borders,” the complaint states.
The federal government’s move to counter climate litigation with its own lawsuit follows an executive order issued last year by President Donald Trump, who directed the DOJ to “take all appropriate action to stop” state lawsuits seeking to “dictate national energy policy.”
“President Trump promised to unleash American energy dominance, and Minnesota officials cannot undermine his directive by mandating that their woke climate preferences become the uniform policy of our Nation,” Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward said in a statement.
Ellison, who is named as a defendant in the DOJ lawsuit, pledged to seek dismissal of what his office called a “frivolous and meritless” case.
“In 2020, I sued Big Oil for lying to Minnesotans about the true causes of climate change, then sticking us with the bill for the harms it is causing,” Ellison said in a statement. “Six years later, we are still waiting to go to trial because Big Oil has pulled every procedural trick in the book to delay facing the consequences of their unlawful actions.”
Minnesota is among a number of states and local governments that have turned to consumer-protection, public-nuisance, and similar laws to sue major oil and gas companies over the climate impact of their products. Those lawsuits generally accuse the companies of misleading the public about climate risks while seeking to hold them financially responsible for infrastructure costs, natural disaster- or health care-related costs, and other damages.
The DOJ has taken aim at several such efforts. Last year, it filed preemptive lawsuits against Hawaii and Michigan, though both were dismissed by federal judges. Separate DOJ challenges to New York and Vermont’s laws, which seek to impose penalties tied to past greenhouse gas emissions to fund disaster relief and climate-related projects, remain pending.
Allowing individual states to use courts to advance climate goals, the Trump administration argued, would create a patchwork of conflicting regulations and interfere with the executive branch’s authority over national energy security and interstate commerce.
“When states target or discriminate against out-of-state energy producers by imposing significant barriers to interstate and international trade, American energy suffers,” Trump’s executive order stated.
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING BILL HOLTER
US Officially a Banana Republic – Bill Holter
By Greg Hunter On May 5, 2026 In Market Analysis, PoliticsNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Last time financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter (aka Mr. Gold) was on USAW, he said don’t even think about selling any gold or silver. One of the big reasons why he is still saying this is the news last week that the US debt to GDP ratio is now at 100%. Mr. Gold says, “I have talked for years about how the entire world runs on credit. What we started this off with is the United States is officially a banana republic. It’s 100% debt to GDP. When I was in school in the early 1980s, the definition of a banana republic is when it hit 100% debt to GDP. In this instance, it is the issuer of the world’s reserve currency that is admitting it is officially a banana republic. Everything runs on credit. The biggest issuer of credit is the United States, and if their credit card gets declined, then what does that do to the real economy? Nothing will work. There will be nothing on shelves. Stores will be dark. Should you store food? The answer is yes because something really bad is right in front of us. It’s a credit collapse.”
So, the Trump Administration is not going to just let everything collapse. What is the contingency plan? Mr. Gold says, “I think the contingency plan is oil. They went after Maduro. So, they have taken control of the Venezuelan oil supply. They want to do the same thing elsewhere. I mean President Trump said in his own words, he said basically we are pirates, and we are going to take Iran’s oil. I think that’s the plan. It is to control more oil and keep the petrodollar system alive. Is it going to work? I think, ultimately, it will not work because the numbers are far too upside down at this point. If you really look under the hood, the Federal Reserve itself is insolvent. And we have not even talked about derivatives. Derivatives are the gorilla in the room. In the derivative market, you are looking at $2 quadrillion in derivatives. Once you get things off sides, and an example of that is look at the British yields, they are back to pushing 7%. They are back to rates that are the same as in 1998. So, all of the easing is gone. Everything runs on credit, and once you gum up credit, you start affecting the real economy. Then, there is less cash flow in the real economy, and that spills over into the financial economy and financial markets. Derivatives are the biggest danger. Warren Buffett calls them mass financial destruction. It should not go unnoticed that Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on $400 billion of cash, which is the biggest hoard they have ever had. In 1998, the financial media called him an idiot, and what happened in 2000? Buffett was an idiot again in early 2008. What happened in late 2008 and 2009? Buffett is not an idiot, and for him to say now that there is nothing out there of value to buy and I’d rather have cash, that tells you a pretty big story.”
On silver, Holter says, “I think we are reloading for a much larger event than we saw in November to January. That 90 days was spectacular, but I think this next move is going to dwarf that.” Holter says many big analysts are predicting silver much, much higher by the end of the year.
There is much more in the 42-minute interview.
There is an 8-minute video to explain how easy it is to ride out any terror attack or extreme storm. You can get more information on Sat phones and backup battery power at Sat123.com. You can get all the information on Starlink at Starlink.com. You can get all the new Faraday bags and clothing at DarkBags.com. You can also call 855-980-5830 and talk to a real human. Same goes for EscapeZone.com where you can get Faraday bags big and small, and the newest Faraday clothing such as smart watch wrist bands that protect you from radiation and the new silver infused pillowcases that can help you sleep better than ever before. You can also talk to a real human at EscapeZone.com by calling 702-825-0005.
Don’t forget you get free shipping for the month of May on anything The Sat Phone Store sells by using the promocode USAWATCHDOG or Greg Hunter.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter/Mr. Gold as the “credit collapse” in the financial system begins for 5.5.26.
After the Interview:
https://usawatchdog.com/us-officially-a-banana-republic-bill-holter/
Bill Holter’s website BillHolter.com keeps growing. There are lots of new free articles.
If you need to contact Bill Holter/Mr. Gold, his email is bholter@proton.me
harveyorganblog.com 
