GOLD $4550.00 3:30 PM)
ZERO GOLD
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2026: 0 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR NIL OZ or 0.0 TONNES
total notices so far: 4067 contracts FOR 406,700 OZ OR 12.650 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 29 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR .145 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5473 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 27.365 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY OUR SMALL QUEUE JUMP OF 32 CONTRACTS FOR 0.160 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.135 MILLION OZ/.//
SUMMARY OF OUR MAY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 36.495 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 32 CONTRACTS/0.160 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.135 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON EARLY DURING THE MAY DELIVERY MONTH)
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27800 OZ/ (0.8646 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 2 CONTRACTS OR 200 OZ (0.00622 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR .4353 TONNES/STANDING NOW REDUCES TO 15.0575 TONNES OF GOLD.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 2 CONTRACTS/200 OZ// 0.00622 TONNES/ TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 00.4353 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW REDUCES TO 15.0575 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 46/753 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA MEGA STRONG 2369 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 104,516.
EFP ISSUANCE 240 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 240 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2369 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 240 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA MEGA SIZED LOSS OF 2129 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $3.79
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 10.645 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $3.79
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MAY 15 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.75 PTS OR 1.02%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 426.31 PTS OR 1.62%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1101.05 PTS OR 1.76%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.85%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8035
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8060 Oil UP TO 104.75 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 109.10 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.8035) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8060 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 2877 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 384,401 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET LATE LAST MONTH AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THURSDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT ALSO SOME SPECULATORS STILL GOING TO THE SHORT SIDE WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MAY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $20.95).
WE THUS HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 1813 CONTRACTS (OR 9.065 TONNES) WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.EQUATING TO 1024 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A ZERO CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD TOTALLING 0 CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0.000 TONNES OF GOLD. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON MAY 7, SO THIS IS OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: TWO ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 140 CONTRACTS OR 14,000OZ OR 0.4353 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: TWO ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 140 CONTRACTS, 14,000 OZ OR 0.4353 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MAY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1813 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE ($20.95). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MAY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS FINALLY A SMALL SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 802T.A.S CONTRACTS THUS ENDING THE STREAK OF 5 HUGE ISSUANCES.. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS NOW IN FULL FORCE WITH TODAY’S RAID AND CAPITUALTION ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 2ND ISSUANCE FOR 0.0963 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 0.4353 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 AND MAY 12.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 200 OZ (.00622 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 14,000 OZ OR 0.4353 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD REDUCES TO 15/0575 TONNESS
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MAY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $20.95)
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI //SPREADER LIQUIDATION FOR TODAY,, FRIDAY WILL BE ENORMOUS WHICH I WILL REPORT ON FOR MONDAY.
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THURSDAY NIGHT//FRIDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $20.95
WE HAD A RECORD 19,393 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 1813 CONTRACTS OR 181,300 OZ OR 9.065 TONNES
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 15 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 0 |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 0 CONTRACTS OR 0 OZ 0.0 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 634 Contracts 63,400 OZ 1.972 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 4067 notices 406700 oz 12.650 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 0
xxxx
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI STANDS AT 634 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 211 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 209 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE LOST 2 CONTRACTS OR 200 OZ WERE TRANSFERRED VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER IN LONDON (0.00622 TONNES)
.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 2119 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 210,983
JULY GAINED 93 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 1208.
We had 0 contracts filed for today representing 0oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,067) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (634 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 470,100 OZ OR (14.622 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our TWO exchange for risk issuance for 14,000 oz or 0.4353 tonnes//new standing for gold/May again advances to 15.0633 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,067) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY( 634 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 470,100 OZ OR (14.622 Tonnes of gold) plus we must add our TWO exchange for risk issuances of 14,000 oz or 0.4353 tonnes/new standing advances to 15.0575 tonness
new total of gold standing in MAY ADVANCES TO 15.0575 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY 15.0575 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
confirmed volume FRIDAY confirmed 124,192// poor// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
the number provided do not match from yesterday!!!
total pledged gold: 1,907,747.506 oz 59.34 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,907,747.506 tonnes oz 59.34 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 28,717,998.972oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,701,327.881OZ 488.3772 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 13,076,671.091 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,793,580 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
429.03 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 15
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 0 entries |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 0 ENTRIES |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 112 CONTRACT(S) (0.560 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 954 Contracts (4.770 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5,444 contracts 27.200 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
1 entries
i) Into Stonex: 501,435.700 oz
total deposit 501,435.700 oz
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
3 ENTRIES
i) Into Asahi: 602,163.302 oz
ii) Into CNT 600,003.600 oz
iii) Into Delaware: 15,022.117
total deposit 1,217,189.059 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
one entry:
i) Stonex: 714,393.560 oz
total withdrawal: 714,393.560 oz
adjustments 1
a) Loomis: customer to dealer: 401,366.360 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 80.827 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 315,101 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2026 OI: 983 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 80 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 112 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 32 CONTRACTS OR 0.160 MILLION OZ AS THESE BOYS ENTERTAINED A STRONG QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 52 CONTRACTS UP TO 2964 OI CONTRACTS
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 2645 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 75,979 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 29 or 0.145 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume THURSDAY; 62,577 good
AND NOW MAY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5473 X5,000 oz = 27.365 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (983) AND the number of notices served upon today (29 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2026 contract month: (5,473 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (983) minus number of notices served upon today (29)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY..contract month equating to 32.135 MILLION OZ.+
NEW STANDING ADVANCES T0: 32.135 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 80.827 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 140.287/315.101 million: 44.49
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAY 15 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $118.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 14 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 13 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 12 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.515 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.995 TONNES
MAY 8 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.283 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.480TONNES
MAY 7 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.853 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.197TONNES
MAY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $124.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.718 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.05TONNES
MAY 5 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 4 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $106.65 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
APRIL 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.142 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.195 TONNES
APRIL 29/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $45.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $85.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 27/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.91 TONNES
APRIL 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP 26.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 11.90TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.783 TONNES
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1033.995 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
MAY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $7.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.9000 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3,79: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.448 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.524 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $3,62: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.086 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.087 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.990 MILLION OZ
MAY 11 WITH SILVER UP $5.10: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.995 MILLION OZ OF SILVER PUT OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.814 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.689 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.809 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.26: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $3.75: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.724 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.21: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.05: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP $2.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.905 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.338 MILLION OZ
APRIL 30 WITH SILVER UP $2.03: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.991 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.243MILLION OZ
APRIL 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.95: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.39: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 24 WITH SILVER UP 0.92: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,23MILLION OZ
APRIL 23WITH SILVER DOWN $2.35: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.489 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488,773MILLION OZ
APRIL 22 WITH SILVER UP 1.43: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262MILLION OZ
aPRIL 21 WITH SILVER DOWN 3.71: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17 WITH SILVER UP $3.09: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.900 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.132 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.477 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.579 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 489.424 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Inflation undermines all asset values
The febrile condition of all asset markets headed by rising G7 bond yields is leading to uncertainty for gold and silver prices. One last sell-off is a golden opportunity for stackers.
| Alasdair MacleodMay 15∙Paid |
For the first half of this week, gold and particularly silver prices rose before being hammered yesterday and this morning. In overnight Asian trade, gold was $4,582, down $95 from last Friday’s close, and silver at $79.20 was down $1.00. A 16,556 jump in gold’s preliminary open interest on Comex yesterday suggests active shorting by hedge funds, while open interest in silver declined by 2,270 confirming that it was gold/$ pair traders in action.
While preliminary open interest figures see some revision before being final, this selling when gold’s contract is already oversold is consistent with a final sell-off. The swaps, being mainly market makers and bullion bank trading desks which take the short side will be delighted, because they know from the quality of buying both in New York and London that they must try to achieve and maintain level books.
This sudden bearishness on the part of hedge fund traders is linked to this week’s inflation shock, with April’s accelerating to 3.8% from March’s 3.3% driven mainly by energy costs. That this should prove a shock is an indictment of sleepy markets, but traders have now been alerted to the severe consequences of oil prices rising and US reserves depleting.
Bond yields are rising in sympathy, as the chart of the US 10-year treasury note shows:
The yield is rising to test and potentially break out above the post-covid rise in yields (the upper pecked line). The long-term chart puts this in context. When yields break higher, they have the potential to at least double from current levels:
Other G7 bonds have already broken through their yield ceilings, notably Japan, the UK, Germany, and France. Canada and Italy have some way to go but like the US are also on the rise. Longer maturities are already leading the way, with the US long bond yield already testing post-covid new highs.
Clearly, measures of inflation will go significantly higher in the coming months, so bond yields in all G7 currencies will rise considerably. And as the long-term chart above of the US T-note shows it will signal a significant destruction of bond and other financial asset values.
If markets expected some relief from Trump’s visit to China this week, they will be badly let down. Cutting through the media commentary, it is clear that China may be non-confrontational, but nor will it intervene to resolve the Persian Gulf crisis. That leaves the prospect of either a continuing stalemate or an escalation by the US. Both options are globally destructive economically, ensuring a combination of a global slump and significantly higher inflation.
Meanwhile, the equity bubble continues to inflate, led by AI stocks and bitcoin which are correlating. The value divergence with bonds is already stretched to a record extent as our last chart shows:
Now that bond yields are moving higher, the equity crash will be even more spectacular when it comes, probably in a matter of weeks or even days. Sell in May and go away has never been more appropriate.
For gold and silver bugs, these are the conditions which vindicates their bullishness. They will be buying into dips such as this in the knowledge that price uncertainty is increasingly short-term. A collapse in currency purchasing power is always reflected in higher gold, silver, and commodity prices. And this time, there are inescapable debt traps to boot.
JESSE COLUMBO\
JOHN RUBINO
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES:
Alasdair Macleod: Inflation undermines all asset values
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2026-05-15 14:01 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Friday, May 15, 2026
The febrile condition of all asset markets headed by rising G7 bond yields is leading to uncertainty for gold and silver prices. One last sell-off is a golden opportunity for stackers.
For the first half of this week, gold and particularly silver prices rose before being hammered yesterday and this morning. In overnight Asian trade, gold was $4582, down $95 from last Friday’s close, and silver at $79.20 was down $1.00. A 16,556 jump in gold’s preliminary open interest on Comex yesterday suggests active shorting by hedge funds, while open interest in silver declined by 2,270 confirming that it was gold/$ pair traders in action.
While preliminary open interest figures see some revision before being final, this selling when gold’s contract is already oversold is consistent with a final sell-off. The swaps, being mainly market makers and bullion bank trading desks which take the short side will be delighted, because they know from the quality of buying both in New York and London that they must try to achieve and maintain level books. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
END
Billionaire Sprott put 98% of his $3 billion fortune into gold and silver and says gold is headed to $10,000
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2026-05-14 17:13 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Godwin Oluponmile
Forbes, New York
via AP MoneyWise, New York
Gold has had one of the greatest two-year runs in its history and the man who saw it coming says it’s just getting started.
Eric Sprott, 81, was at his vacation rental in San Jose, Costa Rica, in late January when Forbes checked in with him. This was right around the same time that silver had hit its all-time high of $100 an ounce, and Sprott wasn’t impressed.
…“I’m not a geologist. I know nothing about rocks, but I know about numbers. … If the reward’s a big reward I can afford to lose,” he told Forbes. “I think the prices are going much higher. I think silver can easily go to $200, even $300. I think gold could go to $10,000.”
Days later silver dropped to $76 and gold had pulled back below $5,000, but Sprott was still unfazed.
Such equanimity is easier when you’ve spent four decades being right about precious metals. Eric Sprott doesn’t claim to be a geologist, even after decades of success in the mining sector. When asked how he finds the next billion-dollar play, he keeps it simple: “Numbers took me there — numbers. You don’t have to be a geologist.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/billionaire-eric-sprott-put-98-141500805.htm
END
Equinox Gold bids C$7 billion for Orla Mining to create Canada’s second-largest gold producer
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2026-05-13 13:05 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Andrew Willis
The Globe and Mail, Toronto
Wednesday, May 13, 2026
Equinox Gold Corp. is bidding to join the ranks of North America’s largest gold producers with an all-stock, C$7 billion offer for Orla Mining Ltd. pitched with zero takeover premium.
Two of Orla’s largest shareholders, financier Pierre Lassonde and Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., and the company’s executives and directors pledged to vote their 20% holding in favour of the Equinox offer.
“Today is an incredibly exciting day for both Equinox and Orla shareholders as we announce a business combination that creates a senior North American gold producer,” Equinox chief executive officer Darren Hall said. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Ross Norman: India panics and burns the golden lifeboat
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2026-05-13 09:39 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ross Norman
Metals Daily, London
Wednesday, May 13, 2026
The word I’m looking for is “contronym” — a term that can mean its own opposite — and it may be an apt description of gold right now. News that India has raised import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% is bullish and bearish at the same time.
We are now seeing second-order consequences of the Iran war manifest. India is particularly exposed to energy costs from what used to be called the Middle East, a region increasingly framed as East Asia — literally a matter of perspective, but I digress.
India is interesting because there are many layers to the motivations for owning gold: weddings, festivals, reliable savings, culture and fashion, and conspicuous displays of wealth. At its core, however, gold is an asset of last resort — and Indians know that.
So when the government takes an action like this — effectively burning the lifeboats to keep warm — you know there is a real problem. There is a whiff of a real panic about this … and that makes it good and bad for gold simultaneously. …
… For the remainder of the commentary:
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 272 and 271
Ted Oakley//272
MUST VIEW…
5. COMMODITY REPORT/GOLD AGNICO EAGLE
Agnico Eagle investing $14 billion in Northern Ontario mines
Ontario touts its fast permitting regime as a calling card to attract mining investment
Agnico Eagle, the world’s second largest gold miner, is making a landmark investment of $14 billion in its operations and assets in northeastern Ontario over the next five years.
Ammar Al-Joundi, Agnico’s president-CEO, made the announcement at George Brown College in Toronto May 13, an event hosted by the Ontario government to promote its mining-friendly policies.
Of that $14 billion, Al-Joundi said $12 billion is earmarked for across-the-board spending on its mining operations, development and exploration programs on its Ontario properties.
Agnico Eagle operates mainly in the gold-rich Abitibi region of the northeast, where its massive Detour Lake open pit is situated near the Quebec border, northeast of Cochrane, and in Kirkland Lake, where the historic Massaca mine complex has been running for more than 90 years.
In lauding Agnico as “the gold standard” in the industry, provincial Energy and Mines Minister Stephen Lecce called the investment “one of the largest to date” in the province’s history and shows strong support for the government’s new permitting regime.
Lecce said Agnico’s spending plans are the direct result of the Ford government’s red tape-cutting mandate to “move with speed” to get mines into production faster by overhauling the permitting system through its One Project, One Process. It’s all designed to promote Ontario as a world-leading jurisdiction for mining investment, he said.
“What this planned $14-billion investment represents is hope for our economy,” said Lecce, “and a message that we can do big things at scale, we move with speed, we can unlock resources responsibly, and we can lift our economy and sovereignty together.”
Al-Joundi didn’t dig into the details on how that entire $14-billion package will be spent on specific individual items or improvements, but he did say $2 billion is allocated for its major underground expansion at Detour Lake and on its Upper Beaver mine project, outside Larder Lake, scheduled to enter production by 2030.
On the job-creation front, Al-Joundi said the company expects these investments will generate roughly 1,500 new jobs, thereby boosting its Ontario workforce to 5,500.
Al-Joundi said this major investment is a reflection of the “confidence we have in Ontario” as a stable and global significant mining jurisdiction.
With other mines in Quebec, Nunavut, Australia and Finland, Northern Ontario, he said, remains important to Agnico, accounting for 30 per cent of its global production.
“Companies like Agnico Eagle can make investments anywhere in the world. We’ve chosen to be in Ontario for almost 70 years now and chosen to invest heavily and to continue to invest heavily in this province because we know Ontario is a place we can make long-term investments.”
Al-Joundi paid credit to Lecce and the ministry for making Ontario “an attractive place to invest” by improving the predictability of outcomes for mining investments and through coordinated efforts and partnerships with government, Indigenous and local stakeholders.
He emphasized the immense economic impact the mining sector can have in Northern communities through spending and jobs.
In 2025, he said Agnico contributed more than $5 billion to local economies, employed 4,100, and spent $2 billion in local goods and services, including $625 million with Indigenous-owned businesses.
“This is one company of many in the mining space in Ontario. This is a big and important industry.”
Ian Howcroft, CEO of Skills Ontario, called Agnico’s investment “wonderful news” for Ontario and its future workforce, calling the company a key partner in the organization’s efforts to promote skilled trades and technology careers, and deliver programming around the province.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.75 PTS OR 1.02%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 426.31 PTS OR 1.62%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1101.05 PTS OR 1.76%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.85%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8035
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8060 Oil UP TO 104.75 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 109.10 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.8035) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8060 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.8035
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.8060
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 426.31 PTS OR 1.62%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1101.05 PTS OR 1.76%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 104.75
BRENT; 109.10
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.08/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1635 DOWN 27 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.718 UP 9 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 158.46… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.080 UP 16 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN( 6.89035 AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.8060
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.1073// Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.877// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.533%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.783%
3j Gold at $4561.30 //Silver at: 78.56 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 28/ 100 roubles/72.96
3m oil (WTI) into the 104 dollar handle for WTI and 109 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 158.46 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.718% UP 9 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.080 UP 16 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7854 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9139
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.544 UP 9 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.096 UP 8 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4..069 UP 8 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.55 UP 11 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.1220 UP 13 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.7840 UP 14 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.570 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.235 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Tumble As Reality Returns And Yields, Oil And Dollar Soar
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 08:43 AM
Bond yields, oil and the dollar are surging this morning as US futures tumble from all-time highs, with Tech underperforming driven by a series of factors including i) surging energy prices on lack of Iran war progress, ii) elevated positioning into options expiry; iii) Central bank repricing, iv) Tech sell-off driven by higher yields, and v) strikes at Samsung Electronics. The combination of stronger consumption and higher inflation is also a factor today. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 1.0% and Nasdaq futures slide 1.4% with the momentum brigade of Semis and Memory dumping (that bastion of the memory trade, Korea, sold off last night, its worst day since early March). The losses point to a bleak end to a week in which chipmakers led a narrow rally despite steadily rising yields and the absence of a US-Iran deal. Cyclicals ex-Energy are, unsurprisingly, seeing material underperformance to Defensives. Bond yields are up 4-7bps as the Dollar looks to complete its first 5-day win steak since March. In commodities, Energy is leading with Brent rising 2.3% to above $108 a barrel. Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said an expectation that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen within the next month was “magical thinking.” Precious metals tumble on dollar strength. Today’s macro data releases are all B-grade, including Empire Mfg, Industrial / Mfg Production, and Capacity Utilization; none are market-moving.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Microsoft (MSFT) rises 0.7% after Pershing Square Chief Executive Officer Bill Ackman said he’s taken a new stake in the compan ( Alphabet -1.6%, Amazon -1.5%, Apple -1.2%, Nvidia -2%, Meta -0.7%, Tesla -1.9%)
- Dexcom (DXCM) rises 3% after the diabetes device maker gave long-term growth outlook at its investor day that impressed analysts. Separately, activist investor Elliott Investment Management took a stake in the company and struck a settlement that will put two independent directors on the board.
- Dlocal (DLO) falls 8% after the emerging markets payment services provider reported first-quarter results that missed expectations in terms of net income and earnings.
- Figma (FIG) rises 10% after the creative software platform reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. Analysts said the report eased concerns about AI-related disruption.
- Gemini Space Station (GEMI) gains 21% after the fintech firm announced that Winklevoss Capital Fund has made a $100 million strategic investment in the company, at a price of $14 per share.
- Globant (GLOB) climbs 5% after the IT services company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
- Magnum Ice Cream (MICC) US-listed shares rise 12% after Reuters reported that private equity firms including Blackstone and Clayton Dubilier & Rice are exploring potential bids for the company.
- NU Holdings Ltd. (NU) falls 3% after the Brazil-based financial institution reported the cost of credit climbing 72% in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier.
- Papa John’s (PZZA) gains 6% after Reuters reported investment firm Irth Capital is working with the pizza chain’s largest US franchisee, who controls around 10% of its domestic restaurants, to take the company private. Reuters cited three sources which it did not identify.
In other corporate news, Kioxia said it would list its shares in the US as it reaps the benefits of a global memory chip shortage that’s ratcheted up prices of the vital component. OpenAI CFO said the ChatGPT maker may raise more capital, as the company races to secure computing power to meet surging AI demand.
A broad selloff in bond markets dragged stocks lower, bringing a sudden halt to the artificial intelligence-fueled equity rally that has pushed the S&P 500 from one record high to the next. The sentiment reversal reflects some profit taking after recent gains, and a lack of concrete progress between Trump and Xi beyond cordial niceties. Also Fed Chair Powell’s term comes to an end today, just as the 10-year Treasury hit 4.5% for the first time overnight since June, prompting a swoon in equity futures.
With a summit between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping ending without any path to resume flows through Hormuz, the impasse between the US and Iran is moving back into focus. Traders will now watch the next steps the two countries take after more than two months of war.
“There’s no question that momentum has been so aggressive on the upside that the risk of a correction is there,” Paul Skinner of Wellington Management told Bloomberg TV. “With a background of bond markets looking unsettled, with the problem of inflation, with the Strait of Hormuz not having a solution out of that Summit, I think there definitely is some volatility to come.”
Brent crude rose 2.3% to above $108 a barrel. Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said an expectation that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen within the next month was “magical thinking.”
“There seems to be an emerging consensus that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in June because the cost of continued closure will be too high,” she wrote. “We are very skeptical. The optimistic scenario seems predicated on the tenuous assumption that there is a relatively easy policy lever that can be pulled.”
In central bank news, the Governor Barr pushed back against proposals to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet, describing them as wrong and a threat to financial stability. The Fed’s Williams said there’s no reason to raise or cut rates right now.
Meanwhile, the turmoil in UK markets is showing no sign of ending as investors price in the possibility of more expansive fiscal policy under a potential successor to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham secured a pathway for a future challenge, unsettling investors who were rattled last year by his comments that the country was “in hock” to bond markets. The prospect of a seventh prime minister in 10 years “is not a record of which any nation would be proud,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “It is contributing to how the UK has the highest 10-year bond yield in the G7.”
Growing price pressures and a series of key dates next month are setting up the stock market for profit taking, according to Bank of America strategists. Michael Hartnett cited the next OPEC gathering, the start of the World Cup, the Group of Seven summit and the first Federal Reserve FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh as catalysts. US inflation is on course to exceed 5% by November’s midterm elections unless the 0.4% monthly gains of the past half year slow rapidly. A scenario where inflation climbs above 4% is “where risk assets get twitchy,” Hartnett said. “Bull capitulation into stocks and tech likely fully complete in next few weeks, early June ripe for taking some off table.”
One thing that Xi has that Trump wants is low interest rates, notes BofA’s Michael Hartnett. The strategist had previously said if the 30-year Treasury yield severely breached the 5% threshold, “the door to doom starts to open.” The jury is still out on whether Powell did enough to bring inflation back to target, notes Anna Wong in a Bloomberg Eco Essential Read. The problem is that if macro – and bond yields- actually matters again, then the S&P is about 1000 points too high.
Elsewhere, BofA strategists noted that US large-cap stock funds attracted their largest inflows in five weeks at $24.4 billion, in the week to May 13, citing EPFR Global data. Discussions around positioning and momentum continue at pace. Momentum in large caps is on a tear, with the factor up more than 30% on a long/short basis this year, tracking one of the strongest six-month stretches in more than two decades.
Given the Nasdaq 100’s run-up, it’s worth taking note that the rarely seen “spot up/vol-up” correlation is evident in options. It’s part of the FOMO trade as traders, especially the retail cohort, chase upside through long calls. In a sign of how heated price action has become, the poster child of the AI melt-up, South Korea’s Kospi, touched the 8,000 level before reversing and sinking 7%. All sectors in the benchmark were sharply lower.
In geopolitics, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he anticipates that China would commit to billions in American agricultural purchases. The CIA Director visited Cuba for talks with top leaders as the US grows frustrated over a lack of progress in economic and political change. California Governor Gavin Newsom is proposing a new tax on cloud-based software sales to raise revenue for the state.
European stocks are following their Asian counterparts lower as oil prices rise on concerns that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut for longer. Miners fall the most while the health care subindex is the leading performer. Stoxx 600 falls 1.2% to 608.54. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:
- Technoprobe shares rally as much as 39%, the most on record, after the Italian company raised its revenue and margin guidance for 2027 and said it expected to hit those revised targets a year early, indicating soaring demand for its semiconductor probe cards.
- Dino Jumps shares jump as much as 18%, the most on record, after the retailer beat first-quarter earnings estimates, with an acceleration in like-for-like sales growth that outpaced competitors. The results should improve sentiment toward the stock, which has fallen nearly 50% over the past 12 months.
- Syensqo shares rally as much as 12%, its biggest gain in over 13 months, after the chemicals company reported Ebitda ahead of expectations in the first quarter. Citi said the beat and the improving order book are reassuring investors.
- Salvatore Ferragamo shares fall as much as 19% after the luxury goods maker reported first-quarter revenue below analyst estimates. Analysts said Europe remained the weakest region because of the company’s reliance on wholesale, while North America posted strong growth. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains a key risk to Ferragamo’s turnaround.
- Grafton shares drop as much as 3.8% to trade at a 13-month low, after Citi said tougher trading conditions will weigh on consensus estimates for the building supplies company. Analysts said weakness in the UK is being offset by growth in other regions.
- European miners are heavily underperforming on Friday, as copper continues to retreat from the record-high close seen earlier this week. Accelerating US inflation reduced the chance of rate cuts and a stronger dollar make the red metal more expensive for many buyers. Gold is also falling.
The tech sector fueled losses in Europe and Asia too, with the Stoxx 600 falling 1.4%. South Korea’s high-flying Kospi index tumbled 6.1% as investors cashed out of Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. Nvidia Corp. slid 2.1% in premarket trading after a seven-day streak of gains. Asian equities slid the most since March as higher oil prices fueled concerns over inflation, with heavyweight Korean chip stocks leading the declines after a dizzying rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 2.2%, snapping a five-week winning streak. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which contributed to much of Kospi’s roughly 80% rally this year, each dropped over 6% on Friday. Almost all national benchmarks in the region traded lower as Brent crude headed for its biggest weekly advance in three, with efforts to end the Iran war in limbo and the crucial Strait of Hormuz staying effectively closed. President Donald Trump made conflicting remarks on Hormuz, telling Fox News the US doesn’t need the waterway open, and then later saying “we want the straits open” while sitting alongside Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Japan’s government bond yields marched higher across the curve in the latest sign that elevated oil prices are raising inflation concerns across global debt markets. Meanwhile, India’s state-run refiners raised fuel prices for the first time in four years.
In FX, the US dollar has been the main beneficiary, looking to complete its first 5-day win steak since March, after a jump in oil prices reignited inflation concerns and sparked a selloff across global bond markets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3% to its highest level this month.
In rates, bonds fell across the Americas, Europe and Asia as doubts grew over whether oil supplies from the Middle East will normalize anytime soon. Scorching wholesale inflation data in Japan offered a fresh warning of price pressures building throughout the global economy. Treasuries broadly hold losses seen in early Asia session as oil pushes higher with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed and efforts to end the war in limbo. Yields are off session highs however leading into the early US session as oil gains unwind slightly. Yields remain cheaper by 2bp to 6bp across the curve in a bear steepening move. US 10-year yields trade near session highs around 4.55%, and highest since May. Front-end outperforms slightly, steepening the US 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 3bp and 2.5bp on the day. Gilts lag, with UK yields trading cheaper by 9bp to 14bp across the curve.While around 14bp of easing is priced by December, or about 55% of a 25bp move, Fed-dated OIS swaps price 25bp of rate hikes by the April policy meeting next year. In UK, political pressure also in play for gilts along with gains in oil, adding to underperformance, after Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham secured a pathway to potentially challenge Keir Starmer for the prime minister’s job. Wider losses seen across gilts, where long-end trades cheaper by 14bp on the day.
Japan’s government bond yields marched higher across the curve to effectively what are new record highs for the modern era, in the latest sign that elevated oil prices are raising inflation concerns across global debt markets. Meanwhile, India’s state-run refiners raised fuel prices for the first time in four years.
In commodities, Brent crude futures earlier topped $109 a barrel after representatives for Iran bemoaned contradictory US messages, and the The decline in Treasuries has pushed US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 4.54%. Metals are broadly lower with spot silver dropping 6%.
Economic data slate includes May Empire manufacturing (8:30am) and April industrial production (9:15am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -1.1%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -1.6%
- Russell 2000 mini -1.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -1.4%
- DAX -1.7%
- CAC 40 -1.4%
- 10-year Treasury yield +6 basis points at 4.54%
- VIX +1.5 points at 18.79
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1202.79
- euro -0.4% at $1.1622
- WTI crude +3.7% at $104.88/barrel
Top Overnight News
- US President Donald Trump left China on Friday with no major breakthroughs on trade or tangible help from Beijing to end the Iran war, despite two days spent heaping praise on his host, Xi Jinping. RTRS
- An underappreciated surplus of crude oil, sloshing around storage tanks and aboard ships, cushioned the global economy when the Persian Gulf closed 2½ months ago. That excess supply is now dwindling at a record pace, with oil executives and analysts predicting that a harsh reckoning is set to upend the relative calm in energy markets. Acute shortages of key fuels and soaring prices could emerge within weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. WSJ
- President Donald Trump said the US objective of recovering highly enriched uranium from Iran was “more for public relations than it is for anything else,” while reiterating his commitment to removing the nuclear material. BBG
- Iran has allowed some Chinese vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz following diplomatic overtures from China’s government, semiofficial Iranian news agencies reported on Thursday. WSJ
- The UAE will double its capacity to export crude oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by next year, as it seeks to reduce reliance on the shipping chokepoint. WSJ
- UK borrowing costs hit their highest level since 2008 on Friday and the pound dipped as traders priced in a greater likelihood that Andy Burnham would challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. The 10-year bond yield rose as much as 0.15 percentage points to 5.15 per cent, as the price of the debt fell, taking the UK’s benchmark borrowing costs above a post-2008 high set earlier this week. FT
- Japan’s corporate goods prices surged in April by the most in 12 years, in another sign of how the war in Iran is boosting inflationary pressures and supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Japan’s Apr PPI surges +4.9% Y/Y in Apr, above the Street’s +3% forecast and up sharply from +2.9% in Mar. RTRS
- Anthropic has agreed the terms of a $30bn fundraising that will value it at $900bn and is expected to close as soon as this month, capitalizing on its unprecedented growth this year to leapfrog its rival OpenAI’s valuation. FT
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends today. His colleague Michael Barr said shrinking the balance sheet is a threat to financial stability, while John Williams sees monetary policy in a “good place.”
- BofA weekly flow data shows USD 20.5bln into stocks, USD 28.1bln into bonds, USD 5.8bln into cash, USD 2.0bln into gold and USD 1.3bln out of crypto. Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 7.6 (from 7.2).
Middle East
- US President Trump said it’s just a question of time regarding Iran, while he also stated that current Iranian leaders are more reasonable and Iran has a lot of inner turmoil, but added that he is not going to be much more patient with Iran, according to a Fox News Interview. Trump also stated that Iran’s enriched uranium could be entombed, but would rather get it, as well as stated that they have their eyes on Iran’s enriched uranium and could bomb it again, but he would rather get it. Trump separately commented that he discussed Iran with Chinese President Xi, and they feel very similar about how they want to end the Iran war.
- US has rejected Iran’s 14-point proposal, Tehran Time reported citing sources. According to the information, the US government has responded to Iran’s written proposal regarding the end of the war.
- “Perhaps another of the Confidence Building Measures (CBM) between US and Iran is in the play”, Pakistani Journalist Mallick posted.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said contradictory messages from the US remain the main issue. He added that there is no military solution, and thinks the US needs to understand that fact. They have tested us at least twice and have now concluded that there is no military solution.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said at the BRICS meeting that the US empire is in decline and Iran will never bow to pressure, according to Press TV.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said evidence shows that the UAE made American bases available for operations against Iran, provided its airspace and territory for those operations
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf warned that US efforts at sustaining military escalation near the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a fresh global financial crisis at a time when US national debt already stands at a whopping USD 39tln.
- Iran’s Ambassador to Belarus criticised the US negotiation stance and said US President Trump’s excessive ambitions hinder US-Iran talks, according to TASS.
- UAE attempted to get Saudi Arabia and Qatar to coordinate on a military response to Iran’s airstrikes, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
- Qatar’s Foreign Ministry told Al Arabiya it had shot down several Iranian drones near its airspace, while it stressed the need to open the Strait of Hormuz in its contacts with the Islamic Republic.
- Israel has commenced strikes on Hezbollah in the Tyre region of Lebanon.
- Israeli army detected rocket launches from Lebanon towards Israeli territory, while Israeli artillery shelling was reported on the town of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued after failing to sustain the early momentum that was spurred by the gains on Wall St, where tech outperformed, and sentiment was underpinned amid constructive headlines from the Trump-Xi summit, while the souring of risk sentiment coincided with higher oil prices and yields amid risk that the geopolitical situation in Iran could escalate when US President Trump returns from Beijing. ASX 200 lacked direction as strength in tech and financials was offset by losses in mining, materials, resources and utilities. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses but ultimately continued its pullback from the recent peak amid oil-related headwinds and after hot PPI data further supported the case for a rate hike at next month’s BoJ meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed despite the recent constructive headlines from the Trump-Xi summit, while the leaders are meeting again today in a restricted working lunch session prior to US President Trump’s return to the US. Furthermore, sentiment was not helped by recent disappointing lending and aggregate financing data from China for April, which showed a surprise contraction in loans.
Top Asian News
- Japan’s Minister for Economy, Trade and Industry Akazawa said they can tap FY26 budget reserves if the Middle East impact lasts. However, it was also reported that Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are not in a situation where an extra budget is needed, while she stated they have JPY 1tln in reserve funds in the FY26 budget, but added there’s no immediate need for an extra budget.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.4%) are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit for a multitude of factors: 1) Central bank repricing, 2) Tech sell-off driven by higher yields and strikes at Samsung Electronics, 3) Surging energy prices. European sectors confirm the negative bias, with only Health Care posting solid gains. Basic Resources and Tech sit at the bottom of the pile. Metal prices have slumped (XAU/USD -1.8%, XAG/USD -6%), as markets price in further rate hikes across the globe. In addition, South Korea’s KOSPI closed with losses of over 6%, adding to the pressure on silver prices as it highlights silver’s high-beta characteristics (as it stands, KOSPI-Silver correlation is c. +0.7).
Top European News
- UK Labour NEC decision on allowing Burnham to run in the Makerfield by-election is not as clear cut as many are reporting, according to GB News’ Harwood. The vote is said to be on a “knife edge”, sources say “everyone is wavering”.
FX
- G10s showing a risk-off bias as the Buck in tandem with Crude prices. Antipodeans are the underperformers, while EUR and GBP also lag amid energy/political related headwinds.
- DXY continues to perform well, vaulting 50,100 and 200 DMAs over the past two sessions amid a mix of hot US inflation data, resilient jobs data/retail sales and exponentially firm oil prices. The session ahead is absent of major data/speakers, and as such, the Greenback will likely be dictated by incoming geopolitical headlines. As a reminder, Warsh today officially takes the title of Fed Chair, while Powell becomes governor and Miran steps down. MUFG in its morning note said “This week has seen the rolling correlation between DXY and the 2-year US-DXY rates spread strengthen notably, which points to scope for US dollar strength to extend further if rate hike pricing momentum continues”.
- Once again, the centre of attention continues to be UK political developments, as markets increasingly price in the possibility of a left-leaning Burnham premiership after he announced his running in an engineered Makerfield by-election. (See 07:35 BST analysis). Sterling has weakened since the announcement on Thursday evening, but losses are somewhat limited given the continued uncertainty about whether the Manchester Mayor would be able to 1) Succeed in winning the by-election, 2) Beat incumbent Starmer in a leadership challenge. Elsewhere, keep an eye on a potential announcement on a support package for bills next week, after Housing Secretary Steve Reed touted it this morning. GBP/USD fell to a 1.3328 low where it found support.
Central Banks
- Fed’s Barr (voter) said smaller Fed balance sheets would likely increase Fed interventions and that reducing liquidity rules to shrink the Fed balance sheet is not a good idea. Barr stated that lowering the liquidity requirement would simply increase stability risks, and if anything, the liquidity requirement should go up, not down. Furthermore, he said they are not in a recession, but there’s been little job creation, while he hasn’t decided on what to do at the June FOMC meeting.
- Fed’s Williams (voter) said Fed independence delivers better economic outcomes, and it is not time to worry about Fed independence, with staff focused on the mission. Williams said the context matters for inflation given its persistence above target, while he is not surprised to see near-term inflation expectations rise and is seeing pretty stable longer-term inflation expectations. Williams noted there is a lot of uncertainty around energy price outlook and that the job market is not “hot” but also not slowing dramatically, while he added that monetary policy is mildly restrictive and he doesn’t see any reason to hike or cut rates right now.
Fixed Income
- Global benchmarks are down, dragged lower early in the week as markets digested hotter-than-expected CPI/PPI, the prolonged Iran conflict (higher energy prices), with fears also exacerbated by the turmoil in the UK’s Labour Party. Markets remain on tenterhooks given the mentioned factors, and this has been reflected in market pricing across several major central banks. Traders now assign a 70% chance of a 25bps hike by year-end and fully priced in for July 2027.
- USTs are currently down by 16+ ticks, and trading at the bottom end of a 109-16 to 109-29+ range. Attention over the past day has been on the Trump-Xi meeting, where initial commentary suggested positive developments; President Trump stated that many problems with China were “settled”. Focus now shifts from China, and back to Iran, where no progress has been made. Some reports have touted that Trump may look to immediately strike Iran after his China visit, to force Iran into a deal. If enacted, there is a risk that Iran chooses to restart strikes on US allies in the Middle East, leading to another spike in energy prices, hence filtering through into US yields.
- Bunds follow the negative action seen across peers, and trade at the bottom end of a 124.58 to 125.03 range. Whilst yields are firmer across the curve today, levels remain within familiar levels; 10yr holds around 3.108% vs a near-term high of 3.133%. As it stands, the belly of the curve is outperforming; however, traders may soon begin to factor in weaker economic growth across the EZ, which may see medium-term yields begin turning lower.
- Gilts underperform vs peers and are currently off by 137 ticks; holding at the bottom of an 85.44-85.85, a trough amongst the contract low. Ultimately, following peers, but the move also exacerbated by domestic politics. A full review is on the Newsquawk feed at 07:35 BST, but in brief: Labour MP for Makerfield announce he is willing to stand aside and spark a by-election, to allow current Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham to run and then, if successful, to challenge for the Labour leadership and, by association, the role of Prime Minister. For reference, Burnham was touted as the “least” market-friendly outcome by a recent FT fund manager survey.
- Australia sells AUD 1bln 1.00% December 2030 bonds b/c 3.69, avg yield 4.7049%.
Commodities
- Geopolitical risk has heightened as US President Trump returns from his trip to Beijing and refocuses on the Iran situation. As a reminder, reports yesterday via Axios suggested US President Trump’s team is now discussing options for military escalation to break the deadlock. Axios added that US officials said Trump could make his next move immediately after his trip to China. Options reportedly include 1) resumption of “Project Freedom,” with the Navy attempting to break the logjam in the Strait of Hormuz, 2) the launch of a new bombing campaign focusing on Iranian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Israeli officials cited by Axios said they’ll be on high alert this weekend in case Trump decides to resume the war.
- In terms of more recent updates, Trump warned it is “just a question of time” regarding Iran and said he will not be “much more patient” with Tehran, while reiterating that the US is monitoring Iran’s enriched uranium and could strike again if necessary, although he would prefer a diplomatic outcome. Trump added that he discussed Iran with Chinese President Xi and both sides agreed the war should end, with China later confirming the leaders reached new consensuses and calling for a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire alongside dialogue on Tehran’s nuclear programme. However, reports suggested that Washington informed Israel that Trump could still authorise fresh strikes inside Iran, while the Tehran Times reported the US formally rejected Iran’s 14-point proposal and maintained its hardline nuclear stance.
- In the European morning, an uptick in crude and a leg lower in sentiment coincided with comments from Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, who noted contradictory messages from the US remain the main issue. On the supply side, it’s also worth noting that the UAE announces accelerated pipeline construction to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Nonetheless, WTI Jul rose above USD 100/bbl to currently trade towards the top end of a USD 97.23-100.93/bbl range, while its Brent Jul counterpart resides at the upper end of a 106.26-109.68/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF front-month trades higher by just shy of 3% at the time of writing, north of EUR 49.MWh, vs an earlier low of around EUR 47.60/MWh.
- Precious and base metals are softer across the board, given the energy-induced strength in the USD. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,532-4,665/oz, while Spot silver sees deep losses for a second straight session as it continues to recoil from a recent rally, with prices hitting a USD 77.66/oz low vs USD 83.88/oz intraday high, and after hitting a USD 89.37/oz peak on Wednesday. 3M LME copper continues to pull back from record levels, dipping under USD 14,000/t to trade in a current USD 13,586.00- 13,961.03/t range.
- UAE is to complete the construction of a new West-East pipeline project in 2027, Bloomberg reported. The ADNOC Chairman later said they are reviewing progress on the new West-East Pipeline (c. 1.5mln BPD, when complete), set to double the co.’s export capacity via Fujairah.
- Abu Dhabi backs USD 13bln US gas plant as Middle East supplies falter, according to FT.
- Japan’s METI met and confirmed that, at the next meeting, they will deepen consideration on the diversification of oil procurement sources and improve the domestic supply system and future oil reserves, Nikkei reported.
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump said they have gotten along well with Chinese President Xi and have a very good relationship with China, while he added Xi is a tremendous and strong leader, and that he would like to see US companies do more business in China. Trump said he spoke to Xi strongly about trade and intellectual property, as well as noted that China will open the country in stages and that it would be good for US companies. Furthermore, Trump said China is going to be buying a lot of farm products, as well as stated that he asked China about using Visa (V), and maybe the China Visa ban will come off.
- Chinese President Xi said the US and China agreed to enhance talks on regional issues, Chinese State media reported. The two sides reached an important consensus and agreed to stabilise trade relations.
- China’s Foreign Ministry said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi reached a series of new consensuses, while it added that the war should not continue and that China is to contribute to Middle East peace. It also said a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire should be reached as soon as possible, and urged solving the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue.
- US President Trump posted that Chinese President Xi congratulated him on so many tremendous successes in such a short period of time, while Trump added that the US was in decline two years ago, but is now the hottest nation.
- USTR Greer said they had a lot of successes in rebalancing trade with China and expect to see an agreement for double-digit billions of dollars of agricultural sales to China coming out of the summit. Greer said China is fulfilling its promises on soybean purchases and that China knows there is going to be a certain level of US tariffs on Chinese goods. Furthermore, he cannot commit to a given rate of tariff on Chinese goods and will release findings of trade investigations in weeks, while he stated purchases of NVIDIA H200 chips will be a sovereign decision by China, and that chip export controls were not a major topic in the meeting.
Geopolitics
- Commander of Ukrainian drone forces said drones struck Russian oil refinery in the Ryazan region.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said China’s preference is probably to get Taiwan willingly and that there will be some agricultural purchases from China, while Rubio hoped to get a positive response from China regarding the case of Jimmy Lai and others.
- CIA Director delivered a message from US President Trump that the US is prepared to engage on economic and security issues if Cuba makes fundamental changes, according to a CIA official.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: United States May Empire Manufacturing, est. 7.2, prior 11
- 9:15 am: United States Apr Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.5%
- 9:15 am: United States Apr Capacity Utilization, est. 75.8%, prior 75.7%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we go to press this morning, markets have lost momentum after President Trump said the US doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open “at all”. So that’s added to fears that the Strait will remain blocked for some time, leading to a more protracted energy shock for the global economy. Indeed, Brent crude oil prices are up another +1.21% overnight to $107.00/bbl. And in turn, those inflation concerns have pushed the 10yr Treasury yield up +3.5bps this morning to 4.52%, its highest level since May last year. It’s a similar story for equities too, with S&P 500 futures down -0.25% this morning, slipping back from their record high yesterday.
Those moves have also been clear in Asian markets overnight, with particularly sharp losses in Japan after their PPI inflation data was well above expectations. In fact, the year-on-year measure surged to +4.9% in April (vs. +3.0% expected), which has led markets to price in a growing chance of BoJ rate hikes this year. Indeed, there’ve been fresh records for JGB yields overnight as well, with the 10yr yield (+9.6bps) up to 2.71%, marking its highest level since 1997. Asian equities have also struggled, with the Nikkei (-1.16%), the KOSPI (-3.66%) and the Hang Seng (-0.95%) all lower, although in mainland China there’s been a relative outperformance, with the CSI 300 (+0.04%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.12%) up modestly.
Otherwise this morning, the big thing to look out for will be the gilt market when it reopens, as it responds to the latest political turmoil in the UK. The last 24 hours have brought many headlines, but the biggest is that Greater Manchester’s Mayor Andy Burnham is seeking to return to Parliament. He now has a path to do so, because an MP in the region announced he’d be standing down to trigger a by-election, which Burnham has said he’ll try to stand in. So if he’s successful and becomes an MP, that would mean he could challenge for the party leadership to become Prime Minister.
For gilt markets, there’s been a focus on Burnham’s candidacy, in part as he said last year that the UK shouldn’t be “in hock to the bond markets”. Moreover, Burnham suggested last week that defence spending could be considered outside the fiscal rules, which added to speculation about more gilt issuance under a Burnham premiership. The news came out after gilt markets had closed yesterday, but the pound weakened sharply in response, ending the day -0.89% lower against the US Dollar, making it the worst-performing G10 currency yesterday. And this morning it’s down a further -0.22% to $1.3373.
Earlier in the day, the UK also saw the first cabinet-level resignation since the local elections, as Health Secretary Wes Streeting stood down. In his resignation letter, he said it was clear that PM Starmer “will not lead the Labour Party into the next general election”. But contrary to earlier speculation, Streeting didn’t launch a formal challenge against Starmer, which would require the backing of 20% of Labour MPs. So, for now at least, Starmer remains in position, and a leadership contest hasn’t been triggered. Gilts closed yesterday before the news of Burnham’s potential return, so 10yr gilt yields (-7.2bps) fell to 4.99%. Meanwhile, the UK data was broadly as expected too, with Q1 GDP growth at +0.6%, in line with consensus.
Ahead of all that, global markets had generally put in a strong performance yesterday, thanks to positive noises from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, a decent batch of US data, and easing fears about inflation. So that pushed the S&P 500 (+0.77%) to another record, topping the 7,500 mark for the first time. And other risk assets performed well too, with US IG spreads closing at their tightest level in 3 months.
Several factors helped to drive that advance, but in the background, we had the Trump-Xi summit taking place in Beijing. There weren’t any market-moving headlines as such, but several points led to optimism that trade tensions might ease further. For instance, Trump said that relations would be “better than ever”, and Chinese state media reported that Xi told US executives that China’s “doors to the outside world will open wider and wider”. Meanwhile, the onshore yuan reached its strongest level in 3 years yesterday, closing at 6.79 per US Dollar. One of the few more concrete headlines was Trump’s comment that China agreed to order 200 Boeing jets, but this was at the low end of expectations, leading Boeing’s shares to fall -4.73% on the news. Further trade-related announcements are expected today.
Otherwise, risk assets got further support from various corporate headlines. Notably, Cisco (+13.41%) was the top performer in the S&P 500, after they announced a better-than-expected outlook in their latest release. Wider optimism around AI was also supported by a +68% opening jump for AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems after its $5.5bn IPO. Nvidia (+4.39%) led the gains for the Magnificent 7 (+0.49%) while the Nasdaq (+0.88%) hit a record high of its own as well. That wasn’t just confined to the US either, with the STOXX 600 (+0.76%) advancing, whilst Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.15%) hit a post-2000 high.
In the meantime, oil prices were little changed yesterday, with Brent crude (+0.09%) closing at $105.72/bbl. However, oil did edge higher late in the US session, which contributed to a more hawkish Fed repricing. For instance, futures almost fully priced in a rate hike by June 2027, with 24bps of tightening now priced (+5.6bps on the day). That came as Kansas City Fed President Schmid said he saw “continued inflation as the most pressing risk to the economy”. The US rates mood also wasn’t helped by lukewarm demand for the latest T-bill auctions as the Treasury increased auction sizes for the past couple of weeks. And in turn, 2yr Treasury yields (+3.9bps) rose above 4% for the first time since June 2025. The moves were more muted further out the curve however, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+1.3bps) inching up to a 10-month high of 4.48%. And in Europe, yields fell back yesterday, with those on 10yr bunds (-5.7bps), OATs (-6.6bps) and BTPs (-7.1bps) all lower.
Elsewhere, markets got further support from a robust batch of US data. In particular, retail sales showed signs of resilience, with the headline measure up +0.5% in April as expected. Moreover, it wasn’t just an energy story, as the measure excluding autos and gas stations was up +0.5% (vs. +0.3% expected). And in turn, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 moved up from an annualised +3.7% rate to +4.0%, suggesting the economy remained on a strong footing. Meanwhile, we also had the weekly initial jobless claims, which rose a bit more than expected to 211k in the week ending May 9 (vs. 205k expected). But that still left the 4-week moving average at just 203.75k, only slightly above its two-year low the previous week.
Looking at the day ahead, and data releases include US industrial production for April, and the Empire State manufacturing survey for May. From central banks, the EC will publish their Economic Bulletin, and we’ll hear from the ECB’s Vujcic and Dolenc
1b) European opening report
1c) Asian opening report
Risk sentiment hit on US/Iran conflict resumption fears, DXY bid, Antipodeans and Sterling lag – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 01:54 AM
- US President Trump said it’s just a question of time regarding Iran, but added that he is not going to be much more patient with Iran.
- US President Trump said he made fantastic trade deals with China, and it was an incredible visit, while they’ve settled a lot of different problems, and the relationship is a very strong one.
- Crude futures gradually edged higher amid risks of geopolitical escalation when US President Trump returns from his Beijing trip.
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.3%.
- UK’s Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham will be requesting to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons stepped down.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Italian HICP Final (Apr), Canadian Wholesale Sales (Mar), US Industrial Production (Apr), Comments from Fed’s Barr, Credit Ratings Updates including Fitch on Germany, S&P on Italy, Morningstar DBRS on Portugal and the UK, Scope Ratings on Poland.
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said it’s just a question of time regarding Iran, while he also stated that current Iranian leaders are more reasonable and Iran has a lot of inner turmoil, but added that he is not going to be much more patient with Iran, according to a Fox News Interview. Trump also stated that Iran’s enriched uranium could be entombed, but would rather get it, as well as stated that they have their eyes on Iran’s enriched uranium and could bomb it again, but he would rather get it. Trump separately commented that he discussed Iran with Chinese President Xi, and they feel very similar about how they want to end the Iran war.
- China’s Foreign Ministry said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi reached a series of new consensuses, while it added that the war should not continue and that China is to contribute to Middle East peace. It also said a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire should be reached as soon as possible, and urged solving the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue.
- Washington informed Tel Aviv of the possibility that President Trump could order strikes inside Iran, according to Al Hadath.
- US State Department said Israel and Lebanese officials had a full day of productive and positive talks. However, a separate report stated that the atmosphere surrounding the third round of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations is not encouraging and there are no indications of any serious breakthrough in the negotiations between Lebanon and Israel.
- US House narrowly rejected the Iran war powers resolution with a 212-212 tie vote.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said at the BRICS meeting that the US empire is in decline and Iran will never bow to pressure, according to Press TV.
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf warned that US efforts at sustaining military escalation near the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a fresh global financial crisis at a time when US national debt already stands at a whopping USD 39tln.
- Iran’s Ambassador to Belarus criticised the US negotiation stance and said US President Trump’s excessive ambitions hinder US-Iran talks, according to TASS.
- Former IRGC commander Jafari said “If the enemy does not accept Iran’s preconditions, there will be no negotiations.” Jafari added that if the war starts again, they will strike harder blows at the enemy than ever before.
- Qatar’s Foreign Ministry told Al Arabiya it had shot down several Iranian drones near its airspace, while it stressed the need to open the Strait of Hormuz in its contacts with the Islamic Republic.
- Israeli army detected rocket launches from Lebanon towards Israeli territory, while Israeli artillery shelling was reported on the town of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon.
- Saudi Arabia reportedly conducted secretive strikes on Iran after Tehran attacked Saudi energy facilities and civilian infrastructure in March, according to WSJ citing US and Gulf officials familiar with the attacks. Saudi air force reportedly carried out strikes on Iranian drone and missile launch sites, as well as struck targets in Iraq linked to Iranian-backed militias, according to sources cited by WSJ.
US-CHINA
- US President Trump said they have gotten along well with Chinese President Xi and have a very good relationship with China, while he added Xi is a tremendous and strong leader, and that he would like to see US companies do more business in China. Trump said he spoke to Xi strongly about trade and intellectual property, as well as noted that China will open the country in stages and that it would be good for US companies. Furthermore, Trump said China is going to be buying a lot of farm products, as well as stated that he asked China about using Visa (V), and maybe the China Visa ban will come off.
- US President Trump said he made fantastic trade deals with China and it was an incredible visit, while they’ve settled a lot of different problems and the relationship is a very strong one, with a lot of good coming from the trip. Trump added that they will have further discussions and Xi’s visit will be reciprocal.
- US President Trump said Chinese President Xi had agreed to buy 200 Boeing (BA) aircraft and reiterated that Xi wanted an agreement on Iran, while refusing to provide military equipment to Tehran. Trump added that Xi wanted to continue buying Iranian oil and opposed Iran charging Hormuz tolls. Trump further stated that “Boeing wanted 150, they’ve got 200 big ones”.
- US President Trump posted that Chinese President Xi congratulated him on so many tremendous successes in such a short period of time, while Trump added that the US was in decline two years ago, but is now the hottest nation.
- USTR Greer said they had a lot of successes in rebalancing trade with China and expect to see an agreement for double-digit billions of dollars of agricultural sales to China coming out of the summit. Greer said China is fulfilling its promises on soybean purchases and that China knows there is going to be a certain level of US tariffs on Chinese goods. Furthermore, he cannot commit to a given rate of tariff on Chinese goods and will release findings of trade investigations in weeks, while he stated purchases of NVIDIA H200 chips will be a sovereign decision by China, and that chip export controls were not a major topic in the meeting.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks continued to rally, with tech leading the gains once again, as NVIDIA was boosted after the US and China announced the company would be allowed to resume chip sales to China, sending shares more than 4% higher. Cisco (CSCO) also surged following earnings and a restructuring announcement, while Cerebras (CBRS) nearly doubled from its IPO price, reinforcing ongoing optimism surrounding AI demand.
- Focus remained on the US/China summit, which appeared constructive overall as agreements involving NVIDIA and Boeing (BA) were announced, although China’s reported 200 Boeing jet order fell short of the previously touted 500 aircraft figure, while Treasury Secretary Bessent commented that “soybeans are all taken care of”, weighing on soybean futures.
- SPX +0.76% at 7,501, NDX +0.73% at 29,580, DJI +0.75% at 50,063, RUT +0.67% at 2,863.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Barr (voter) said smaller Fed balance sheets would likely increase Fed interventions and that reducing liquidity rules to shrink the Fed balance sheet is not a good idea. Barr stated that lowering the liquidity requirement would simply increase stability risks, and if anything, the liquidity requirement should go up, not down. Furthermore, he said they are not in a recession, but there’s been little job creation, while he hasn’t decided on what to do at the June FOMC meeting.
- Fed’s Williams (voter) said Fed independence delivers better economic outcomes, and it is not time to worry about Fed independence, with staff focused on the mission. Williams said the context matters for inflation given its persistence above target, while he is not surprised to see near-term inflation expectations rise and is seeing pretty stable longer-term inflation expectations. Williams noted there is a lot of uncertainty around energy price outlook and that the job market is not “hot” but also not slowing dramatically, while he added that monetary policy is mildly restrictive and he doesn’t see any reason to hike or cut rates right now.
- Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said central bank independence remained critical to effective monetary policymaking.
- Fed’s Miran submitted his resignation from the Federal Reserve Board, effective on or shortly before Kevin Warsh’s swearing-in as Chair.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued after failing to sustain the early momentum that was spurred by the gains on Wall Street, where tech outperformed, and sentiment was underpinned amid constructive headlines from the Trump-Xi summit, while the souring of risk sentiment coincided with higher oil prices and yields amid risk that the geopolitical situation in Iran could escalate when US President Trump returns from Beijing.
- ASX 200 lacked direction as strength in tech and financials was offset by losses in mining, materials, resources and utilities.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses but ultimately continued its pullback from the recent peak amid oil-related headwinds and after hot PPI data further supported the case for a rate hike at next month’s BoJ meeting.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed despite the recent constructive headlines from the Trump-Xi summit, while the leaders are meeting again today in a restricted working lunch session prior to US President Trump’s return to the US. Furthermore, sentiment was not helped by recent disappointing lending and aggregate financing data from China for April, which showed a surprise contraction in loans.
- US equity futures pulled back as risk sentiment soured overnight amid higher oil prices and yields, as well as Trump’s comments on Iran.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.3% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY mildly strengthened as risk sentiment waned overnight alongside higher oil prices and yields, while there were several comments from US President Trump in a Fox News interview in which he stated that he is not going to be much more patient on Iran and suggested they could bomb it again, but he would rather get it regarding Iran’s enriched uranium.
- EUR/USD languished beneath the 1.1700 handle after recent declines and with little fresh catalysts from the bloc.
- GBP/USD remained subdued after underperforming yesterday despite better-than-expected GDP data, with the pound weighed on by UK political turmoil surrounding PM Starmer after potential leadership challenger, Streeting, resigned from his post as Health Secretary, while Manchester Mayor Burnham will be requesting to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons confirmed he is to step down.
- USD/JPY gradually extended its footing at the 158.00 territory amid a firmer buck and higher oil prices, but with upside capped after an acceleration in Japanese PPI data.
- Antipodeans resumed the prior day’s retreat amid headwinds from the decline in metal prices and as risk sentiment waned.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8415 vs exp. 6.7976 (prev. 6.8401)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were pressured and printed a fresh contract low, with selling exacerbated as prices breached through Wednesday’s trough and as oil prices steadily climbed.
- Bund futures resumed the prior day’s intraday pullback and returned to sub-125.00 territory.
- 10yr JGB futures followed suit to the downside in global peers, with demand also not helped by firmer-than-expected Japanese PPI data, which showed the fastest pace of increase since late 2022.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures gradually edged higher amid risks of geopolitical escalation when US President Trump returns from his Beijing trip, as a report noted that Washington informed Tel Aviv of the possibility that Trump could order strikes inside Iran, while Israeli officials were said to remain on high alert this weekend in case Trump decided to resume the war. Furthermore, Trump said in an interview on Fox News that it’s just a question of time regarding Iran and that he is not going to be much more patient on Iran.
- Spot gold retreated amid higher yields and a firmer buck, while the downside also coincided with firm losses in silver, which briefly breached below the USD 81/oz level.
- Copper futures declined as the overnight risk sentiment deteriorated, despite the recent constructive headlines from the Trump-Xi summit.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin traded indecisively and on both sides of the USD 81,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan’s Minister for Economy, Trade and Industry Akazawa said they can tap FY26 budget reserves if the Middle East impact lasts. However, it was also reported that Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are not in a situation where an extra budget is needed, while she stated they have JPY 1tln in reserve funds in the FY26 budget, but added there’s no immediate need for an extra budget.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese PPI MM (Apr) 2.3% vs Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 1.0%)
- Japanese PPI YY (Apr) 4.9% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.6%, Rev. 2.9%)
GEOPOLITICS
OTHER
- US Secretary of State Rubio said China’s preference is probably to get Taiwan willingly and that there will be some agricultural purchases from China, while Rubio hoped to get a positive response from China regarding the case of Jimmy Lai and others.
- US Pentagon cancelled the planned deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland.
- CIA Director delivered a message from US President Trump that the US is prepared to engage on economic and security issues if Cuba makes fundamental changes, according to a CIA official.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK’s Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham will be requesting to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons stepped down. It was separately reported that PM Starmer will not seek to block Andy Burnham from becoming Labour candidate in Makerfield, paving his way for a return to Parliament and a leadership bid, according to The Guardian.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
JAPAN
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
this could be very problematic!
Samsung Strike Threat Sparks Selling Contagion In Memory Stocks
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 09:05 AM
President Trump’s China trip has concluded, with the multi-day summit producing comments from both sides that pointed to warming bilateral relations. As Trump returns aboard Air Force One on Friday morning, traders are shifting focus to overnight turmoil in South Korea, where labor action risks rattled Samsung shares and other memory stocks, and dragged the country’s benchmark KOSPI index lower.
“There was pronounced pressure in Asia, with the KOSPI down 6.1%, led by heavy selling in Samsung and SK Hynix. Headlines around a potential 18-day union strike at Samsung further exacerbated weakness across tech,” UBS analyst Zeynep Akkok wrote in a short note to clients.
First time in weeks that Samsung and KOSPI had a down week:
Samsung
KOSPI
Akkok explained that the selling in South Korean tech and memory stocks spread to Europe: “This is feeding directly into Europe, where technology stocks are down 2.7%, and UBS’s semiconductors basket is off 4.2%.”
Everything you need to know about the labor action theat against Samsung (courtsey of Bloomberg):
- Samsung’s largest labor union threatened an 18-day walkout beginning May 21 after government-mediated wage negotiations collapsed on May 13.
- The union demands that Samsung scrap existing bonus caps and allocate 15% of operating profits to bonuses, while both sides remain sharply divided over AI-related earnings bonuses.
- Samsung CEO Jun Young-hyun and executives met with union leadership on Friday, with Samsung offering unconditional talks and urging swift dialogue.
- Samsung reportedly began cutting production on Thursday ahead of the planned strike to prepare for potential quality issues.
Beyond selling pressure in Asia and Europe, the U.S. is also experiencing a red morning, with Nasdaq futures down 1.6% and S&P 500 futures down about 1.2%.
Among U.S. semiconductor stocks, Nvidia is down 2.6% in premarket trading. Broadcom is down 3%, AMD is down 4%, and Intel is down 5%.
We briefed readers earlier on another bout of selling pressure hitting global markets this morning, including surging Treasury yields and elevated crude prices (read the report here).
Taken together, from memory, stocks soaring and yields higher amid inflation woes, this setup points to a risk-off Friday. That said, traders will be watching closely for any bull-friendly White House comments that could stabilize and provide a relief bid.
3. CHINA/
4 EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
GERMANY
German SPD Leader Faces Backlash After Claiming Migrants Burdening Welfare System Is A ‘Right Wing Extremist’ Lie
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Labor Minister and Social Democratic Party (SPD) co-leader Bärbel Bas (SPD) says nobody is immigrating to Germany to take advantage of its social welfare system. However, she has received substantial pushback directed at her claim.
Bas’ comment came during a session of the Bundestag, when AfD MP René Springer asked Bas why she wasn’t cutting spending on immigration due to the current budget crisis, given the clear burden it is putting on social welfare, a situation that is making German taxpayers increasingly angry.
“Immigration into the welfare state threatens social cohesion! The fact is: More and more immigrants are pushing into our social welfare system – and are bringing the system to its limits and to the brink of collapse,” CSU Member of Parliament Stephan Mayer told Bild on Tuesday, as quoted by Junge Freiheit.
Bas, in return, has called this notion a lie from “right-wing extremists.”
Her goal, like many proponents of mass immigration is to link it to eliminating Germany’s skilled worker shortage.
“We have a skilled worker shortage in this country, which many companies are addressing by saying, ‘We need everyone who is here in the country and can work.’”
Mayer, and many others before him, shot her down.
“Every statistic refutes her. The immigration into Germany’s social systems is verifiably documented and one of the main reasons why the Federal Republic is heading toward state bankruptcy,” Springer posted on X last week.
Every statistic refutes her. The immigration into Germany’s social systems is verifiably documented and one of the main reasons why the Federal Republic is heading toward state bankruptcy. Why must the citizen tolerate these brazen lies?
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“There is less and less money for those in need because the wrong people, who have never paid into the system and never will, are being supported by us,” he told Bild.
Remix News has reported extensively on migrant abuse of the German welfare system. In November 2024, data from the federal government revealed that 64 percent of those receiving benefits have a migration background, despite making up a much smaller share of the overall German population. The cost of providing this social welfare rose to €12.2 billion the previous year, but in total, Germany spent nearly €50 billion on immigrants and protecting its border in 2023.
And yet, in August 2025, Germany’s Federal Employment Agency is actively promoting the country’s “citizen’s benefit” (Bürgergeld) to young migrants, with one critic noting: “Germany is so generous that it not only explains to immigrants from abroad how to get a job, but also how to make ends meet in Germany without one.”
That same month, two SPD chiefs in the German state of Thuringia broke with their party, calling for most non-EU migrants — including asylum seekers and recognized refugees — to receive social benefits only as interest-free loans, repayable once they find work, in an effort to break reliance on the state.
Currently, there is very little incentive for many to find work. And even those under deportation orders are being supported at taxpayer’s expense. And this is, of course, ignoring the other issue with massive crime from the migrant community.
Bas, however, has, in turn, said Springer is simply ignorant of the facts.
“You’ve probably never heard of it, because you’re probably not out and about in the country, visiting companies,” she told him.
Alice Weidel, the AfD parliamentary group leader in the Bundestag, reacted to this with her own input:
“The SPD’s denial of reality is symptomatic of the federal government’s inability to act—a government that doesn’t want to change a thing. A political turnaround is only possible with the AfD!” she wrote on X.
According to Günter Krings (CDU), deputy leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, “there are too many people who come to us from other EU countries and only work a few hours a week, receiving social assistance for the rest of their time,” the MP told Bild, noting that the German social system is “a magnet for many EU foreigners.”
Former Bundestag member Joe Weingarten (SPD) described Bas’s statement as “a completely unrealistic assessment.” He added that she “is largely alone in this view, even within the SPD.” Weingarten also told The Pioneer, “Any responsible local politician could provide her with enough examples from their own city to prove the opposite.”
END
UK
Britain Is Now Policing Thought Crime
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Ciaran Kelly via DailySceptic.org,
If you want a snapshot of how far Britain has drifted from its liberal inheritance, consider the spectacle of a 78 year-old grandfather and retired pastor being warned by police that he must not preach from the Bible within a public area. His offence was not harassment, obstruction or intimidation. It was reciting and commentating on a verse many learned as children: “For God so loved the world…”
Clive Johnston’s alleged crime was breaching a ‘buffer zone’ around a hospital which houses a sexual health clinic where abortions are performed – despite the fact it was a Sunday afternoon when there were no scheduled abortions, and he made no reference whatsoever to abortion, nor motherhood, nor babies.
The state maintains he risked “influencing” anyone accessing the clinic in relation to abortion or anyone working there – a crime punishable by fine. He was prosecuted, and this week found guilty for doing so.
At this point, it is worth stating plainly: this is no longer about the cultural debate on abortion ethics.
It is about whether the state may decide which ideas are permissible in public space and which must be confined to the private sphere. In footage from the initial confrontation with police now circulating on X, the policeman literally tells Johnston his religious views should be expressed only in a “safe” place like a chaplaincy – not out on the street, where anyone passing by might hear.
Johnston’s case is the latest example in a pattern that has been building for years: the slow but unmistakable attempt to narrow the space in which Christians, in particular, are permitted to express their beliefs.
Take the school chaplain, Dr Bernard Randall, referred to Prevent for discussing Christian teaching during a school assembly. Or the numerous street preachers removed from public areas simply for speaking about Christ. Or the growing list of individuals questioned by police for nothing more than silent prayer within ‘buffer zones’ – cases in which no words were spoken, no signs displayed, no interactions initiated. The mere possibility of internal deviance in belief, it seems, is now sufficient to trigger official concern.
Abortion ‘buffer zones’ were introduced with a defensible aim: to protect women from harassment at a vulnerable moment. Few would quarrel with that objective (albeit one that was already adequately covered by pre-existing laws banning harassment). But like many well-intentioned measures, the law is being stretched beyond its original purpose. If “influence” can be inferred from the mere act of expressing Christian faith – irrespective of what is actually said, and whether it relates to abortion – then we are no longer policing conduct, but the hypothetical impact of ideas. To put it more bluntly, we are policing thought.
Once the elastic concept of “influence” becomes an offence, the implications are difficult to contain. If spoken words are suspect, what about the mere presence of someone with a certain belief? If preaching from the Bible is counted to be too influential, what about someone within the area wearing a Christian cross, or indeed a hijab? Could that deter a woman from an abortion because she knows of faith-based objections to abortion, and therefore be criminal? If influence is defined so subjectively, then almost any expression of belief becomes, in the eyes of someone, a potential offence.
The premise of the law banning “influence” rather than “coercion” or “harassment” is absurd. It suggests that we aren’t all influenced by one another on a daily basis. It isn’t immoral to change one’s mind on a topic – and indeed, it’s patronising to assume members of the public are so feeble-minded that to be in the presence of somebody with an alternative view would cause genuine harm.
Britain has developed a habit of elevating the avoidance of offence above the protection of liberty. From the proliferation of ‘non-crime hate incidents’ to the policing of speech on university campuses, the direction of travel has been unmistakable: fewer risks of discomfort at the cost of fewer freedoms.
Buffer zones are simply the latest and most disproportionate frontier. What is now being tested is not just the boundary of acceptable behaviour, but the boundary of acceptable belief. You need not share Clive Johnston’s theology to see the danger.
A country that tells its citizens their faith belongs only in designated “safe areas” is not protecting pluralism, but actively dismantling it.
END
5/ RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
IRAN/ISRAEL VS USA
CENTCOM: Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis cut off from Iranian support
Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have been cut off from Iranian support, according to the US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper.
In a Thursday post to CENTCOM’s X/Twitter account, Cooper claimed that “this result was not foreordained, nor was it brought by chance. It’s the culmination of months of careful planning.”
He also noted that the results come with a high cost, honoring the 14 US servicemen killed during Operation Epic Fury, as well as the two soldiers and one civilian killed in Syria.
END
IRAN/ISRAEL VS USA
Iran Says It Has “No Trust” In US, Insists There Is “No Military Solution”
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 10:10 AM
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that Tehran has “no trust” in the United States and remains interested in negotiations only if Washington demonstrates seriousness, as talks aimed at ending the war remain stalled. Speaking to Indian media during the second day of the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi, Araghchi said military initiatives are ineffective in resolving regional crises, Turkey Today reported.
“There is no military solution, and the U.S. must understand this reality,” Araghchi said, according to a statement shared by Iran’s Foreign Ministry. “They cannot achieve their goals through military action, but the situation would be different if they pursue diplomacy,” he added.
Araghchi also said the United States and Israel had “tested” Iran at least twice during the conflict.
The Iranian foreign minister said one of the main obstacles during negotiations with Washington has been inconsistent messaging from American officials. Araghchi said contradictory statements, interviews and communications from U.S. officials created deep mistrust between the two sides.
Iran has repeatedly accused Washington of pursuing diplomacy publicly while supporting military pressure against Tehran behind the scenes.
Regional tensions escalated after the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, triggering retaliatory attacks by Tehran against Israel and U.S. allies in the Gulf region.
Although a prolonged ceasefire is currently in effect, negotiations aimed at reaching a permanent settlement have largely stalled.
Commenting on the Strait of Hormuz, Araghchi said Iran continues to allow passage for “friendly countries” while imposing restrictions on what he described as “enemy ships.”
“The Strait of Hormuz is not closed to friendly countries. Restrictions are for enemy ships,” he said, although it is unclear why Iran then claims Chinese ships had been blocked until yesterday since China remains Iran’s largest, if not only, oil export client.
“In recent days, many vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz with the assistance of our naval forces, and this process will continue,” he added.
Araghchi said ships belonging to friendly states and other commercial vessels must coordinate with Iranian armed forces while transiting the strategic waterway.
“The only solution is the complete end of the aggressive war, and afterward we will guarantee the safe passage of every ship,” he said.
He also reiterated Tehran’s position that Iran acted within its right to self-defense following the outbreak of the conflict.
end
UAE/IRAN/STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Great Global Energy Rewiring Accelerates: UAE To Double Crude Export Capacity Bypassing Hormuz Chaos
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 11:15 AM
Days after the U.S. bombing campaign against Iran began, we pointed out on March 3 that the conflict was likely to accelerate a major Gulf infrastructure push to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea stood out as the clearest signal that regional producers needed a credible Plan B for moving crude and crude products when the Hormuz chokepoint becomes disrupted. That logic is now coming into sharper focus for the UAE.
March 3:
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) is the UAE’s state-owned energy giant and is set to double its crude-export capacity that bypasses the Hormuz chokepoint next year with the construction of a new pipeline to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, according to a new Bloomberg report.
The pipeline project would expand an existing 1.5 million-barrel-a-day pipeline, which has become critical for ADNOC amid the ongoing Hormuz disruption. This allows the UAE to keep about half of its oil exports flowing to the world.
The current bottleneck for the UAE is that ADNOC’s pipeline can handle only about half of its normal export volumes, limiting revenues and proving particularly troubling for the Gulf producer, whose oil-related activity accounted for 22.7% of GDP in Q1 2025.
The urgency to divert flows, or in fact rewire energy flows, will be a top priority for other Gulf producers because oil still matters heavily for public finances and their billionaires.
Perhaps Gulf producers received another memo after President Trump’s comments on Air Force One earlier today, following his China trip, when he said the U.S. does not need to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint. The U.S. still has a naval blockade in place to pressure Iran’s energy complex into collapse, with hopes that Tehran will sign a peace deal.
END
Deadlocked At Square Zero: Very First Line Of Iran’s Latest Proposal ‘Unacceptable,’ Trump Says
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 11:45 AM
Tehran and Washington are truly not just back to square one, but it’s as if no rounds of dialogue – direct or indirect – have even taken place. It’s more like being back at square zero – and the US President has just acknowledged it.
President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Friday while departing Beijing that even the very first first sentence of Iran’s latest proposal was “unacceptable” and blamed the Iranians for backtracking on the nuclear issue.
The first sentence was an “unacceptable sentence, because they have fully agreed no nuclear, and if they have any nuclear of any form, I don’t read the rest,” he said, stressing that he remains unsatisfied with the “level of guarantee from them.”
Trump’s remarks center on his allegation that Iran agreed to give up its “nuclear dust” but then quickly “then they took it back” – but then stated his view that Tehran will eventually agree to it anyway.
“I looked at it, and I don’t like the first sentence. I just throw it away,” Trump said.
He once again in the comments called for Iran to completely abandon any nuclear capability, insisting there can be “no nuclear of any form.” He described: “You’ve got to get all the fuel out and no more production. You have to get everything.”
Trump has said China’s President Xi Jinping is in full agreement that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon:
According to Trump, Iranian representatives acknowledged only the United States and possibly China possess the specialized equipment necessary to remove radioactive debris from the damaged sites.
“They said the only one that can remove it is China or the U.S.,” Trump said. “They said you were right. It is a complete obliteration.”
The president has said the nuclear material is now “entombed” under ground after nuclear sites were “obliterated” – from bombing operations last June and this latest round of US-Israeli attacks in February through March and early April.
Also this week while in China Trump told Fox News in an interview that he did not underestimate the situation in Iran, despite the constantly shifting and expanding timeline and stated goals within the early weeks of Operation Epic Fury.
TRUMP TO FOX: DIDN’T UNDERESTIMATE ANYTHING ON IRAN
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that the topic of uranium enrichment “is currently not on the agenda of discussions or negotiations,” but will be addressed in later stages, as cited in Tasnim.
On China and whether President Xi agreed to commit to pressuring the Iranians to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said Friday “we don’t need favors” but that “we may have to do a little cleanup work.”
“We had a little month-long ceasefire, I guess you’d call it, but we have a blockade that’s so effective, that’s why we did the ceasefire,” he said, after suggesting that the conflict with Iran could continue.
ISRAEL TBN
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
RALPH BARIC:> FINALLY EXPOSED
he and his thugs killed millions and now they will pay the price!!!
Ralph Baric And UNC’s Biodefense Contract Racket Exposed
Thursday, May 14, 2026 – 07:15 PM
Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,
“DLA Piper wants to get you,” I was told, from a source in DC over the weekend.
“Well, what can they do to me?” I asked.
“They can’t really do anything,” she said. “But they are pissed off.”
Well, they should be. DLA Piper is one of the largest law firms on the planet, with over 90 offices scattered across more than 40 countries. A week back, I took a shot at one of DLA Piper’s top lobbyists, former Republican North Carolina Senator Richard Burr, and one of DLA Piper’s major clients, the University of North Carolina (UNC).
As I reported last month for RealClearInvestigations, The National Institutes of Health removed UNC virologist, Ralph Baric, from all his NIH grants. And UNC put Baric on administrative leave. This all took place last year, but remained hidden until I exposed it all in a sprawling investigation that delved into Baric’s career, his past lobbying efforts of the federal government to keep taxpayer money pouring into his UNC lab, and Baric’s manipulations of public opinion to shut down speculation that the pandemic started because of the dangerous virus research that he pioneered in collaboration with Shi Zhengli at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
That’s right. Baric’s main collaborators to create experimental pandemic viruses were virologists working in the same city where the COVID pandemic started in 2019.
Neither Baric nor UNC would respond to my repeated inquiries. However, when a reporter sent them questions about my article, UNC said that they couldn’t discuss Baric “citing the university’s policy on personnel matters.” Another reporter who sent UNC questions, received this reply: “Thanks for reaching out. Under the North Carolina State Human Resources Act, the University of North Carolina does not comment on personnel matters.”
But the pressure became overwhelming and the dam finally burst on Tuesday, when UNC administrators sent out an email saying that Baric was retiring. (That email was then leaked to a local North Carolina paper.) Baric also collaborated with Science Magazine’s Jon Cohen, providing him all the details about my prior reporting that NIH removed Baric from grants last year and UNC placed him on leave. Cohen’s editor, John Travis, then tried to sell this repeat of my reporting from last month as an “exclusive backstory” to readers of Science.
Journalism can be a sleazy business. Since the pandemic’s beginning, Jon Cohen has distinguished himself as a soft touch for Tony Fauci-financed virologists who downplayed evidence that the pandemic began at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, earning himself the moniker: “Crooked Cohen”.
UNC’s Biodefense Lobby Hustle
Baric got away with shenanigans for years because, while he was in an elected official and purportedly serving voters, North Carolina Senator Richard Burr helped to protect Baric and sponsored legislation that poured tens of billions of taxpayer cash into biodefense research that paid Baric’s UNC lab, as well as a North Carolina company Baric founded. And let’s not forget all the biopharmaceutical companies that work with Baric and other virologists to suck down taxpayer-financed federal contracts to stockpile government warehouses with biomedical products.
One of Baric’s major sponsors was Tony Fauci, who ran the biodefense program at the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Trump officials now tell me that Baric’s cutting-edge biodefense studies led to virus experiments at the Wuhan Institute of Virology that caused the COVID pandemic.
“Baric designed the gun,” I was told by a senior health official. “But the Chinese built it, and then they pulled the trigger.”
A senior Trump official at one of the intelligence agencies refers to this multi-billion dollar biodefense complex as a “contract racket.” Here’s how he said it works:
NIH and other taxpayer-funded federal agencies give grants and contracts to university virologists to find viruses hidden throughout the world, and bring them back to labs for experiments, including dangerous gain-of-function studies that make viruses more deadly;
Academic virologists then partner with Big Pharma and biotech companies to create profitable therapeutics and vaccines to these experimental viruses, with universities getting a cut of the deal;
Biotech executives, academics, and universities make a windfall after these therapeutics and vaccines get sold back to the very taxpayers who paid for all this research in the first place.
I wrote about some of this back in 2023, the year in which President Biden began drowning the academic/biodefense industry in an historic amount of cash: $88.2 billion. That same year, Senator Burr left federal office to catch some of that deluge in dollars as a biodefense lobbyist. However, in 2023 this was all so new, and far too complicated to understand.
But today it’s no longer hard to follow once you take a look at Burr’s 18 lobbying clients:
Academic Research Centers: University of North Carolina, Duke University, Duke University Health System, Wake Forest University, Association of American Universities.
Pharma/Biotech in BioDefense Sector: Biogen, Biotechnology Innovation Organization Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America PhRMA, Novartis AG, REGENEX BIO, AdvaMed, Avalyn Pharma, Lazarus AI, Defence Security and Resilience Bank Development Group.
It’s quite something.
Burr laid the foundation for his lobbying career by sponsoring most of the major pieces of legislation that fund and regulate the biomedical and biodefense industry during his three decades in office. And he’s not shy about trumpeting these accomplishments, because he advertises them to potential clients in academia and corporate America on his bio at DLA Piper.
Burr helped pass the 1997 FDA Modernization Act which regulates pandemic products, and he was a primary architect of the 2006 Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) which provided new authorities for companies to develop medical countermeasures which the government then buys from them. The PAHPA also created BARDA (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority). BARDA spends billions every year to subsidize pandemic research, with a big portion of that money buying vaccines and other pandemic products that fill up government warehouses, in case a crazy virus (maybe leaked from a lab!) starts sweeping across the planet, killing people.
But there’s more money. So much money.
In his final year as a United States Senator, Burr introduced a bill to create ARPA-H inside the NIH, providing billions more in taxpayer spending for biodefense companies. As the Republican leader of the Senate Committee on Health Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP), he then published a report on COVID origins that placed sole blame for the pandemic on Chinese scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, while ignoring extensive published evidence of the research ties between UNC’s Ralph Baric and the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
“With COVID-19 still in our midst, it is critical that we continue international efforts to uncover additional information regarding the origins of this deadly virus,” Burr wrote in the report’s forward. “I hope this report will guide the World Health Organization and other international institutions and researchers as they proceed with planned work to continue investigating the origins of this virus.”
To give this report’s distorted conclusions some added media juice with liberals, Burr co-opted reporter Katherine Eban to promote his misdirection from Baric’s lab in North Carolina to focus on the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Wittingly or not, that’s exactly what Eban did with an “exclusive” she co-published with ProPublica and Vanity Fair. Eban’s involvement was my first clue that this Burr’s report was a misdirection. As Politico reported in 2012, Eban has a habit of allowing her journalism to serve as “demonstrably false” propaganda for sources who dump documents in her lap. [SEE BELOW: “Katherine Eban Tells You What Power Tells Her”]
Spotlight on Ralph Baric
My investigation for RealClearInvestigations runs for several thousand words and the details of Senator Burr, his 2022 report, and Katherine Eban is only one section. But none of it has been told before.
And my reporting created waves in DC that washed down into North Carolina.
The day before the investigation went live, I sent Richard Burr details about my reporting via his email at DLA Piper. I wrote to Burr that I was a former Senate investigator, telegraphing to him that I understood how Committees put together reports. I then detailed all the problems I found in the 2022 report he released before leaving the Senate to become a biodefense lobbyist.
In my email to Burr, I included a set of facts that we were reporting at RealClearInvestigations and asked him to comment, correct, or clarify.
1) In your final year as Ranking on HELP, you released a 2022 report on the pandemic’s origin. That report pointed the finger solely at China as the purported origin of the virus.
2) That report made no mention of gain-of-function research funded by the NIH, nor any mention of gain-of-function research conducted in the United States.
3) The most notable researcher in the world for generating gain-of-function coronaviruses is Ralph Baric, professor at UNC, who is funded by the NIH.
4) Sources who Committee staff interviewed for your report said that Bob Kadlec removed any mention of gain-of-function research in the United States. Others said you made this decision.
4) After you left office, you joined DLA Piper as a lobbyist on pandemic preparedness, taking with you staff from the HELP Committee.
5) You then joined the board of the company Baric set up for pandemic preparedness, which had also received NIH money.
A few hours later, I got a text message from Douglas Heye, a former speechwriter for the Republican National Committee, and former Republican Hill staffer. According to one bio, Heye is from Burr’s home state of North Carolina and runs a PR firm called “Douglas Media.”
Heye wanted to talk to me about Senator Burr, but I wasn’t interested. He then called me, but I didn’t pick up. I then texted Heye back that Senator Burr could call me himself or email me to answer my questions.
Burr later emailed me that he couldn’t discuss the matter as DLA Piper represents UNC. What he didn’t tell me is that he, Richard Burr, is the person at DLA Piper who lobbies for UNC.
I now know that Burr is deeply embedded within the academic biomedical and biodefense industry that he helped to create with all the legislation he passed during three decades in Congress. Again, just look at his DLA Piper bio explaining all this, and check out Burr’s list of clients in academia and biodefense.
Between two laws he sponsored—BARDA and ARPA-H—taxpayers shovel several billions of dollars down the gaping maw of academic research centers and private companies in grants and contracts every year. Most of BARDA money has gone to big pharma companies such as Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, Janssen (Johnson & Johnson), AstraZeneca, and Sanofi/GSK.
That’s apparently why Burr put out a report in his final months as a United State Senator that pointed the finger at the Wuhan Institute of Virology as the sole problem in dangerous virus research. He couldn’t shine a spotlight on UNC and other American universities, as well as their corporate partners in biomedical and biodefense and then expect these same people to hire him as their man in DC.
Katherine Eban Tells You What Power Tells Her
When Katherine Eban partnered with Senator Burr and his staff in 2022, she understood that, in exchange for access to inside information, her role in this alliance was to promote the Senator’s report, not question the conclusions.
Renowned investigative reporter Dean Starkman laid out the problems inherent in Eban’s type of journalism many years ago in a critique of “access” versus “accountability” reporting—the latter being my preference. Access reporting tells you what the powerful said, Starkman explained, while accountability reporting tells you what they did.
And Eban has long snuggled up to the powerful for access, which inescapably hides what they did. It’s a fatal flaw in the scribblings of all stenographers to power.
In 2011, Special Agent John Dodson with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) blew the whistle on the Fast and Furious gun walking scandal. This federal operation allowed over 2,000 firearms to be illegally purchased and then trafficked to Mexican drug cartels in order to track those weapons back to drug smugglers. The tactic was known as “gunwalking.” However, agents lost track of most weapons, which were later used in crimes, including the killing of a U.S. Border Patrol agent.
This inept operation drew a target on the back of Agent Dodson’s superiors and U.S. Attorneys who supervised the Fast and Furious Operation. And they retaliated against him by leaking sensitive internal government documents to reporters in a smear campaign. One of those reporters who got inside access to government documents and then smeared agent Dodson was Katherine Eban.
In a June 2012 “exclusive” for Fortune, Katherine Eban made a series of false allegations against Dodson, claiming that his whistleblowing was just a “grudge” against his superiors.
Dodson hired an attorney and sued Eban’s publisher Time Inc. for defamation, noting that Eban’s reporting was “dubious” and filled with falsehoods. A spokesperson for the Senate Committee investigating the Fast and Furious scandal told Politico, “This kind of misleading and highly opinionated narrative masquerading as objective mainstream journalism is an example of why many Americans distrust what they’re told by the media.”
Eban tried to defend hersefl, but Time Inc. later settled with Dodson.
The Department of Justice’s Office of the Inspector General later released a report that found a United States Attorney leaked internal government documents “motivated by a desire to undermine Special Agent Dodson’s public criticisms of Operation Fast and Furious.” The ACLU then protested the ATF’s attempt to censor Agent’s Dodson’s 2013 memoir on this gun trafficking scandal, “The Unarmed Truth: My Fight to Blow the Whistle and Expose Fast and Furious.”
That same year, ATF cleared Agent Dodsons of all false allegations made against him by his superiors.
When Fast and Furious first blew up, I had left my job as a Senate investigator so I did not deal with Agent Dodson and the smear campaign orchestrated against him. However, I was friends with the Senate staffer who ran the Dodson investigation alongside a Secret Service Agent who was on detail to the Committee that I had left.
I was appalled at the Eban’s shoddy reporting and defamation of Agent Dodson, and I have never trusted her since.
Eban viciously attacked an American hero, who risked his career and reputation to protect the United States and federal law officers. When I spoke to Agent Dodson a couple years ago about what happened to him, he said he couldn’t discuss the details of his settlement with Eban’s publisher. He did tell me that ATF punished him by never giving him a promotion after he went public about the scandal.
Eban did not return repeated requests to explain her defamation of Agent Dodson, and why she has never apologized publicly. Lionsgate studio picked up the rights to Dodson’s book in 2015 and chose “World War Z” writer Matthew Carnahan to adapt the memoir into a movie. However, plans for a movie on Agent Dodson appear to have been shelved.
Eban reprised her role as unquestioning sidekick to the powerful when she rode shotgun with Senate Burr to promote his 2022 report in co-published stories that ran in ProPublica and Vanity Fair. The articles provided intimate details of the Committee staffers she had grown close to, including colorful highlights of one with “very blue-collar” roots in Greenville, South Carolina.
Just like North Carolina’s Senator Burr, Eban ignored mountains of evidence, available at the time, that NIH-funded scientists like Ralph Baric of North Carolina were partnering with scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. And just like Senator Burr, Eban focused solely on China as the problem with dangerous virus experiments.
In fact, this laser-like focus on Wuhan, China, is right there in the title of Eban’s ProPublica article.
Propublica later published an editor’s note to Eban’s regurgitation of Senator Burr’s report, adding context and corrections that stretches on for over 2,500 words. I’m not joking. The editor’s note is longer than this article that you are reading now.
Eban pulled a second stunt like this in 2023, shielding Ralph Baric and other corrupt virologlists from scrutiny, when she appeared at a University of Pennsylvania event discussing the origins of the COVID pandemic alongside virologist Susan Weiss. “There is no field where there is more need for clear communication than on the subject of the COVID origins debate,” said the event organizer, professor Claire Finkelstein. “We decided to get five of the smartest, most interesting, and level headed people that we could find together, to rise above the fray to have a serious intelligent discussion.”
Surprise: Event organizer Claire Finkelstein is Katherine Eban’s sister!
Years prior to her sister hosting a university event for Eban to rub shoulders with Weiss, emails spilled out showing that Weiss had allowed Ralph Baric to ghostwrite a 2020 essay she co-authored downplaying the possibility of a lab accident.
Weiss’s 2020 commentary was titled “No credible evidence supporting claims of the laboratory engineering of SARS-CoV-2” and appeared in the journal Emerging Microbes & Infections. Taylor and Francis later congratulated Weiss and her co-authors as their commentary became one of the most widely read pieces published in 2020. Media outlets such as The Week, Buzzfeed, and Baric’s local newspaper, the Raleigh News & Observer, cited the article in passages that dismissed a possible lab accident.
Emails show that both Baric and Shi Zhengli of the Wuhan Institute of Virology provided secret edits to Weiss’s manuscript. After one of the Weiss’s co-authors sent Baric a draft, asking for his input, Baric responded, “Sure, but don’t want to be cited in as having commented prior to submission.”
After then submitting alterations to the text in track changes, Baric added, “I think the community needs to write these editorials and I thank you for your efforts.”
But sitting on the stage next to Weiss, Eban didn’t ask a single question about this unethical incident. Even though the story and supporting emails had been made public years prior. Now why is that?
Here’s what I reported for RealClearInvestigations about this tawdry research episode involving Ralph Baric and Susan Weiss:
Although failing to disclose authors on a paper is considered a form of research misconduct, the journal failed to take action. Five years after publication, the journal added a disclosure in January 2025 that acknowledged Ralph Baric’s contribution to the commentary.
This is partly why we’re still trying to figure out today what happened during COVID coverup. Much of the dirt kicked up with these media deceptions is still floating in the air. But let’s keep blowing that dust away.
END
HANTAVIRUS:
41 People In US Under Monitoring For Hantavirus: CDC
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
Forty-one people are under monitoring in the United States for hantavirus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on May 14.
Most of those being monitored were at one time on board the MV Hondius, a cruise ship that experienced an outbreak of the disease after it sailed from Argentina on April 1 to remote locations such as Antarctica.
Eighteen people were flown from the ship recently to medical facilities in Nebraska and Georgia for quarantining during the incubation period for the virus, which is up to 42 days.
Some other individuals left the ship before the hantavirus outbreak was detected and are at home in states such as Arizona and California.
The third group is composed of people who were exposed to hantavirus during travel because they came close to cruise ship passengers, particularly on planes, Dr. David Fitter, a CDC official, told reporters on a call.
Eleven Hondius passengers worldwide have been confirmed or are suspected to have contracted hantavirus, according to the World Health Organization. Three people who were on board and either tested positive or showed symptoms of the virus, such as fever, have died.
Humans typically contract hantavirus from infected rodents, but person-to-person transmission is believed to have occurred on board the vessel.
“Epidemiological investigations continue to better define epidemiological links between cases and exposure factors on the ship, as well as to try to understand the potential source of exposure,” the World Health Organization said in a statement on May 14.
No mandatory quarantine orders have been imposed as of yet in the United States.
“We are working closely with passengers and public health partners to ensure monitoring and rapid access to care if symptoms develop,” Fitter said.
“Our goal is to work with them and alongside them, building plans based on their specific situations to protect the health and safety of passengers and American communities. We understand that these passengers have already been through a difficult experience. This coordinated approach reflects our respect for them as partners in keeping themselves and their communities safe.”
Kansas officials said earlier Thursday that three residents who were not on the Hondius were exposed to a person with hantavirus.
The three are being monitored, according to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment.
Other states, including Maryland, New Jersey, and Washington state, have said residents were possibly exposed on flights.
The CDC says the risk to the public is low, with hantavirus transmission believed to only occur through close contact with infected people or their bodily fluids
GLOBAL ISSUES
How Global Economic Power Shifted In The Last 10 Years
by Tyler Durden
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 02:45 AM
The global economic order has shifted dramatically over the last decade, with countries reshuffling positions amid inflation shocks, geopolitical tensions, pandemic disruptions, and the rapid rise of AI-driven industries.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Gabriel Cohen, compares the world’s 15 largest economies in 2016 and 2026 using IMF World Economic Outlook data, revealing which countries gained ground, which fell behind, and which surprised the most.
The U.S. remains the world’s largest economy at $32.4 trillion in 2026 forecasts, while China crossed the $20 trillion mark. India posted one of the fastest growth rates among major economies, while Japan became the only G20 economy to shrink over the decade.
The World’s Reordering of Major Economies
The period from 2016 to 2026 saw major reordering among the world’s top economies, with Mexico overtaking Spain, India overtaking France, and Russia leapfrogging both Brazil and Canada.
The table below lists the world’s 15 largest economies in both 2016 and 2026 based on their nominal GDP in billions of U.S. dollars.
One of the biggest shifts in the rankings came from India, whose economy expanded by 83% between 2016 and 2026. By the end of the period, India’s GDP had nearly caught up with both Japan and Germany.
Meanwhile, Germany overtook Japan to become the world’s third-largest economy, despite relatively modest growth compared to emerging markets.
Germany’s growth was modest compared to emerging markets like China, India, and Mexico, and was tempered in part by the economic slowdown it faced throughout the post-COVID era. However, Germany still grew faster than other major European Union economies like France (46%) and Italy (45%), though not Spain (68%).
The decade between 2016 and 2026 also saw the European Union lose its second-largest member economy, the United Kingdom, in 2020. The UK grew its GDP by 57% to reach $4.3 trillion by 2026.
Another Lost Decade for Japan
Every major world economy expanded over the last decade, with one notable exception. Japan’s GDP shrank from $5.1 trillion in 2016 to $4.4 trillion in 2026, reflecting a 14% contraction.
Following decades of rapid economic expansion in the late 20th century, Japan’s economy has struggled since the 1990s. The government has accumulated a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 200%, while major exporters in the auto and tech sectors have faced rising competition and trade tensions involving both the U.S. and China.
Perhaps Japan’s most pressing challenge is its demographic crisis. The country’s population was roughly 5 million larger in 2016 than in 2026, reflecting a decades-long fertility decline that threatens future growth prospects.
Russia’s Economic Expansion
Russia’s economy more than doubled in size between 2016 and 2026, growing by 107% to reach $2.7 trillion based on IMF forecasts. This expansion came after the Russian financial crisis of 2014–2016, which was driven largely by falling oil prices.
Russia’s growth, fueled heavily by oil and gas exports, came despite sanctions imposed after the country’s occupation of Crimea in 2014 and full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Even as the U.S. and European Union imposed sanctions, Russian energy exports were rerouted toward buyers in China and India, albeit at discounted prices.
How do these countries and economic powers compare with individual U.S. states? Find out with The 50 Largest Economies, Including U.S. States on Voronoi.
END
Observation
ROBERT H……
After two hours behind closed doors at the Great Hall of the People — with Musk, Cook, Huang, and Fink etc. ( 30 in all) watching from the gallery — Trump and Xi stood up, walked out, and drove to a temple.
A TEMPLE, no press conference occurred. The question is WHY?
The Temple of Heaven they went to was Built in 1420. It is the sole place on Earth where Chinese emperors were permitted to speak directly to God. It does not matter what one believes as the symbology is what tells, even though we do not know why. This is where Chinese dynasties asked the sky for permission to rule. Where harvests were blessed and empires were born.
Arguably both Trump and XI lead 2 of the most powerful nations on the globe. They went to stand on the same stone where Chinese Emperors went and knelt 600 years ago and asked for abundance. Why and what was said privately ?
Surely one does not take a foreign president there for tourism. You might take him there for a CONSECRATION or some other discussion far away from eyes and ears and hidden agendas.
Yesterday the US Senate confirmed a new Federal Reserve chairman. The same day Xi said the door to American business is “opening wider.” The same day — 30 CEOs worth $4.7 trillion sat in the front row like witnesses at a covenant. This is quite the contrast to what recently has been occurring in relationships between China and America.
Was this trip a ceremony of sorts? Was the meeting was the final negotiation where most points were already agreed to ? Was the trip to the TEMPLE THE SEAL to whatever deal or deals that have been agreed to already ? Do you know that Ukraine is experiencing the biggest rain of missiles since the SMO commenced? Why now is a question to ask. Because the words from the Kremlin are more harsh now than before. And clearly terms of settlement are growing more stringent. Yermak being jailed is no coincidence in timing. The noose is getting tighter on the Zelensky. Just like Poseidon is running about on duty. Do you know that Russia will have 3 subs by year’s end that can launch 12 or more such underwater missiles with continental reach. In order to destroy a city they do not need a nuclear warhead? It is bad enough that they have a nuclear powered engine.
We do not know at this time precisely what was agreed to or why as clearly was witnessed by those there in attendance. However we will certainly see in short order as events occur after the meeting. And no doubt there will be Middle East implications that will occur.
Let’s see if the clarity act passes today. Because the days of magic money may be coming to an end faster than we know. Beyond the obvious of impact on energy and inflation from the closure and lack of energy supply via the STRAIT the financial carnage is immense.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS COMMENTARIES
Oil’s Inventory Cushion Will Run Thin This Summer
AI
Yes, that’s a timely headline (likely from ZeroHedge or similar sources), and current data strongly supports it. As of mid-May 2026, global and U.S. oil inventories are drawing down rapidly due to the ongoing Iran-related disruptions in the Middle East, particularly the effective closure or severe throttling of the Strait of Hormuz. This is happening right as summer driving, aviation, and other seasonal demand ramps up.
@zerohedgeKey Recent Developments
- Global inventories have plunged at a record pace. The IEA reported draws of ~250 million barrels over March and April (around 4 million barrels per day). Morgan Stanley estimated ~4.8 mb/d draws in parts of that period. This is far above historical norms and is using up the “shock absorber” of stockpiles. oilprice.com
- Analysts note the market entered 2026 with decent buffers (after rebuilding in prior years), but these are finite—especially readily accessible commercial and strategic stocks. Goldman Sachs and others put global stocks at around 8-year lows or approaching critically thin levels (e.g., ~98–101 days of demand cover). discoveryalert.com.au
- U.S. inventories: Commercial crude fell 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million in the week ended May 8 (bigger draw than expected). Cushing stocks also dropped. Distillate (diesel/heating oil) stocks are at multi-year lows, and gasoline inventories are trending down faster than normal ahead of peak summer. reuters.com
Outlook for Summer 2026Major agencies now forecast significant market deficits:
- IEA: Flipped to a 2026 deficit. Global supply down ~3.9 mb/d for the year due to shut-ins; Q2 draws could average very high (e.g., 6+ mb/d in some scenarios). Market remains undersupplied into Q3 even if disruptions ease. reuters.com
- EIA: Global inventories expected to fall by an average ~2.6 mb/d in 2026 (much larger draw than prior forecasts). Q2 draws of ~8.5 mb/d projected, supporting Brent around $106/b in May/June. eia.gov
Summer demand (driving, jet fuel, etc.) will collide with these thin buffers. Refiners typically build stocks pre-summer, but that’s not happening normally this year. U.S. gasoline stocks could hit unusually low levels by late summer.
reuters.com
END
US Gasoline Inventories Plunging On Surging Exports, Resilient Demand
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 12:25 PM
Prompt Brent/WTI crude nearby futures increased by 5/7% week-over-week to $105/101 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained very low and on limited signs of progress on a US-Iran deal.
Meanwhile, as global oil inventories collapse at a record pace yet sliding Chinese demand and strategic releases from Beijing keep crude prices relatively stable, Goldman writes that the US gasoline market has become very tight, with inventories drawing at a rapid average pace of 0.7mb/d since April 1st to 5% below their historical seasonal median this week.
This has been driven by a combination of:
- Surging net exports demand. US gasoline net exports are up 0.34mb/d year-over-year (4-week average)
- Resilient domestic demand. Gasoline demand is resilient at just 0.2mb/d below its year-ago level (no demand destruction yet) and we are now entering the summer driving season.
- Price incentives to shift production to distillates. Strong jet fuel and diesel margins are incentivizing refineries to increase yields of those products.
On the pricing side, wholesale gasoline prices in the US are approximately 15% ($21/bbl) higher than in Asia and Europe (Exhibit 1 above), and US retail prices are just $0.5/gal below their all-time high.
Goldman says that while it’s not the bank’s base case, the probability of US oil export restrictions likely rises with US retail gasoline prices.
Turning to oil, the IEA estimates in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) an April deficit of 5.3mb/d, suggesting that the deficit may be less large than most had estimated last month, driven by:
Slightly lower IEA demand. Since the beginning of the crisis, the IEA has cumulatively (May – Feb OMR) downgraded its estimate of April demand by 3.1mb/d to 100.4mb/d (vs. a slightly smaller downgrade of 2.9mb/d in Goldman’s balance).
- By product: Net cumulative downgrades by the IEA were largest (in mb/d terms) for LPG and ethane (11%), naphtha (13%), and jet and kerosene (7%) for which Goldman has also been seeing the highest risks of scarcity of supply.
- By region: Net cumulative downgrades were largest for the Middle East (11%), China (5%), EM Asia ex China ex India (5%), and OECD Asia Oceania (7%). Notably, the IEA upgraded US demand from last month’s OMR by 0.5mb/d on resilient diesel and gasoline demand.
- Less large IEA drop in Middle East Supply. The IEA estimates Gulf (defined as Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) crude supply in April at 15.0mb/d, which is 4.0mb/d higher than the previous Goldman balance estimate (11.0mb/d) and 1.2mb/d higher than OPEC secondary sources (13.8mb/d).
- The IEA supply beat was driven primarily by Iran and the UAE, likely reflecting less binding storage constraints than expected due to untrackable storage capacity.
The IEA reports that SPR releases from IEA countries averaged 2.1mb/d in April (but picked up significantly in the second half of the month). This has been a significantly larger offset for crude than for refined products — of the 90mb of total government inventories released since March 11th, 82mb are crude oil, while only 8mb are refined products.
US production in 2026 Q1 also surprised to the upside, with the modest beats concentrated in oil production by E&Ps (+2.1%) and liquids production by majors (+1.3%).
More in the full Goldman oil tracker note available to pro subs.
END
COMMODITIES RE OIL RELATED PRODUCTS:
As jet fuel availability goes so does diesel as do economies
Today is the 15th of May and the clock ticks away at a trickle of energy coming from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz. Over a billion barrels of oil has not been shipped. This means for someone this supply is no longer availed. It takes time to return anything to normal. Energy supply is no different. Sure looks like several European countries will run dry or low on jet fuel. This implies more restricted flights and likely a major hit to tourism. Has anyone calculates the losses that can occur?
If one combines agricultural needs and the need to move goods, there will choices to be made as needs overwhelm availability. Thus one might want to expect flight cancellations and layoffs across the hospitality industry. Who knows this may even cause a major rethinking of the EU’s energy direction overall; sustainable development may find new meaning as the reality of a lack of energy comes home to roost. Politicians cannot mumble through this reality.
The bigger picture is what the impact will be to manufacturing as no doubt fuel tariffs and the like work through supply chains embedded into the price of everything. This is how inflation becomes unstoppable because it can become structural in nature. When this happens it takes a long tome to be remedied.
Even now the spread of mass debt borrowings are even hitting America where the 30 Treasury yield is now at 5.1% today. All debt globally is becoming more expensive. Debt costs ripple through everyday life.
And while there was measured consensus on Iran with China there is no reason to think that anything has been resolved to allow for energy flows to return to normal. Will hostilities return anew now that Trump has departed China or will there be some negotiated compromise ? It is noted that the IDF has been put on high alert and perhaps this is telltale sign. In ay case, the longer energy flow does not return to normal the longer it will take for economies to stabilize and the deeper the recessionary woes will occur. There is no stopping this as any return to normal is dictated by time that the energy supply chain requires to restore the order. Even in North America we should anticipate shortages of specialty fuels by July. And the impact is already evident in escalating WHEAT prices and a lack of reasonably priced fertilizers. It may take until fall for this to show. However, the prices increases are already in play and will work their way through the system.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
SOMALI//DEFINITION OF HYPERINFLATION
“Pushed Into Poverty”: Somalia’s Currency Crisis Leaves Traders Holding Worthless Cash
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 04:15 AM
For decades, Muse Omar Jama made a living swapping currencies in Mogadishu’s Bakara market, where customers once lined up to trade Somali shillings for dollars and mobile money. Now his office sits mostly silent, and the safes around him are stuffed with cash no one wants, according to The Guardian.
The problem began when traders in Somalia stopped accepting worn-out shilling notes, saying the bills were too damaged to use. The boycott quickly spread to shops, buses, and businesses across the country, wiping out the value of savings held in local currency. Jama describes the shock bluntly: “It’s like we went bankrupt overnight.”
He can no longer exchange the piles of shillings stacked in his office for US dollars, and many former customers leave empty-handed. “I have to turn them away because my safes, shelves and tables are already full of Somali shillings,” he says.Photo: The Guardian
The Guardian writes that the crisis reflects Somalia’s long shift toward a dollar-based economy. The country hasn’t printed new banknotes since dictator Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991, when the central bank collapsed. Since then, US dollars, remittances sent through hawala networks, and mobile payments have increasingly replaced local currency.
The fallout has hit poor households hardest. Prices for essentials like food, medicine, and transport have risen sharply—one small bag of powdered milk reportedly doubled in price. Jama now walks five kilometers to work because buses no longer accept shillings.
Vegetable seller Asha Ali Ahmed says the change has also hurt small traders. Farmers in Afgoye now demand mobile payments, driving up produce costs in Mogadishu markets. With drought already devastating crops, many customers can no longer afford basic groceries.
According to the World Food Programme, about 6.5 million people in Somalia face severe hunger, while 2 million children under five are suffering acute malnutrition.
The federal government has declared refusing Somali shillings a crime, but many traders doubt it can enforce the order. Jama remains pessimistic: “Millions are going to suffer… More families will be pushed into poverty.”
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1635 DOWN 0.0027
USA/ YEN 158.46 UP 0.084 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3350 DOWN 0.0040 OR 40 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3746 UP 0.0022 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 22 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 42.75 PTS OR 1.02%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 426.31 PTS OR 1.62%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.85%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 426.31 PTS OR 1.62%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42,75 OR 1.02%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.85%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1,101.05 PTS OR 1.76%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4561.30
silver:$78.56
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.55 PLUS 11 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 72.96 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 28 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.1220 UP 13 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.784 UP 14 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.572 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.235 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 99.00 UP 34 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.512% UP 10 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.702% UP 8 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.030 UP 11 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.567 UP 10 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.915 UP 17 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.1362 UP 9 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1627 DOWN 0.0034 OR 34 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.57 UP 0.185 OR YEN IS DOWN 19 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.1610 UP 17 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.835 UP 18 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 31 BASIS pts to 1.3754
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN TO 6.8099// ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.8116
TURKISH LIRA: 45.55 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 11 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.562.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.107 UP 11 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.069 UP 8 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4550.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 77.01
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 177.56 PTS OR 1.71%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 508.69 OR 2.09%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 129.72 PTS PTS OR 1.61%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 186.50 PTS OR 1.05 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 933,80 PTS OR 1.87%
WTI Oil price 103.88 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 107.97 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 7295 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 40 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.648 UP 8 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.311 UP 8 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1621 DOWN 0.0041 OR 41 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3321 DOWN 0.0070 OR 70 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.178 UP 15 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.817 UP 14 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.718 UP 9 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 4.080 UP 16 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 158.72 UP 0.338 OR YEN DOWN 34 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3754 UP 0.0029 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 29 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 105.39
Brent OIL: 109.25
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 12 BASIS pts to 4.599
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 12 PTS to 5.129%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.084 UP 9 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.693 UP 12 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.351 UP 12 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.22 UP 49 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.55 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 72.76 UP 0 AND 48/100 roubles //
GOLD $4550.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 76.52 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 537.35 OR 1.07%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 455.10 PTS OR 1.54%
VOLATILITY INDEX 18.13 UP 0.87 PTS OR 5.04%
GLD: $ 417.33 DOWN 9.88 PTS OR 8.59%
SLV/ $69.03 PTS DOWN 6.49 OR OR 8,59%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 473.29 PTS OR 1.28%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Bond Bloodbath & Benign Beijing Stall Stocks On The Week; Bitcoin & Bullion Battered
EARLY TRADING THIS MORNING”
Trump Talk & ‘Thucydides Trap’ Threat Triggers Market Mayhem Overnight
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 06:55 AM
Traders are waking this morning in the US to some relative market mayhem and questioning what came first – the oil spike or the geopolitical angst – to trigger these moves as it appears the market finally remembered there’s more going on in the world than trading ‘short compute’ demand to the moon…
Oil prices are up significantly (WTI >$100)…
Bond yields are breaking out everywhere (10Y 4.5%, 30Y UST 5.10%!, 30Y Gilt 5.82% – highest sine 1982)…
Equity markets sharply lower overnight (Kospi -6%, Japan Semis approx. -5%, Japan momentum approx. -2.5% Nasdaq -1.5% as levered ETF exposure and high concentration clearly exacerbating the sell off)…
The catalysts are intertwined with what appears to be a nothing-burger in terms of outcomes from Trump’s trip to China (exacerbated by Xi’s not so hidden threat) and Trump’s comments on the Strait of Hormuz..
China Summit
As Goldman Sachs one-delta desk-head, Rich Privorotsky, notes this morning, the Xi/Trump summit appeared to yield little in the way of immediate tangible outcomes.
Despite all the positive rhetoric, Boeing sank, KWEB closed -4.6%, the details around NVIDIA H200 exports remain murky and even some of the headline “wins” looked shaky.
Reuters reported that Chinese customs “halted export clearances for hundreds of U.S. beef plants” just hours after approvals had seemingly been renewed during the summit.
For now this still looks more like stabilization than a durable reset.
Feels like the US side came hoping for transactional risk deals while China was looking for a broader multi year reset and foundations for more constructive dialogue.
The references to the “Thucydides Trap” did not go unnoticed either:
Xi invoked whether China and the US could “transcend the so-called Thucydides Trap” (the theory that when a rising power threatens to displace an established great power, war becomes highly likely).
…very deliberate language and clearly aimed at framing this as something much bigger than tariffs or trade.
Trump later had to go on a posting offensive clarifying that he must have been referring to the Biden administration…
When President Xi very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden Administration, and on that score, he was 100% correct. Our Country suffered immeasurably with open borders, high taxes, transgender for everybody, men in women’s sports, DEI, horrible trade deals, rampant crime, and so much more!
President Xi was not referring to the incredible rise that the United States has displayed to the world during the 16 spectacular months of the Trump Administration, which includes all-time high stock markets and 401K’s, military victory and thriving relationship in Venezuela, the military decimation of Iran (to be continued!) — Strongest military on earth by far, economic powerhouse again, with a record 18 trillion dollars being invested into the United States by others, best U.S. job market in history, with more people working in the United States right now than ever before, ending country destroying DEI, and so many other things that it would be impossible to readily list.
In fact, President Xi congratulated me on so many tremendous successes in such a short period of time.
Two years ago, we were, in fact, a Nation in decline. On that, I fully agree with President Xi!
But now, the United States is the hottest Nation anywhere in the world, and hopefully our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever before!
However, as Privorotsky noted, the market probably came in pricing deal momentum and instead got managed coexistence.
That is still positive in macro terms, just less catalytic for risk assets immediately.
Now, to the second part of the double-whammy…
Oil
This is where Privorotsky says ‘the rubber meets the road.’
Feels like the US held back from escalation ahead of the China summit, hopeful Beijing might lean on Iran to de-escalate.
But China’s messaging remained diplomatic rather than forceful, saying “the most urgent issue is to keep the ceasefire” and calling for “good-faith negotiation between the two sides.”
Trump said he and Xi agreed that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, returning market focus to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Reopening the waterway has been a key objective for the US in diplomatic efforts since a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran took hold about five weeks ago. But Iran insists it keep an oversight of traffic through the maritime chokepoing as part of any peace agreement, stoking fears of a prolonged disruption in energy exports from the Persian Gulf.
Trump oscillated between threatening further attacks on Iran, including in a Truth Social post between meetings with Xi, and insisting the US does not rely on energy imports through the Strait of Hormuz.
“They need the Strait more than we need it open, we don’t, we don’t need it at all,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News.
Trump says US is “doing it to help Israel and to help Saudi Arabia” and other gulf allies.
“It also helps China”
That comment triggered a jump in crude prices, rise in the dollar, and drop in gold…
For now, it appears the combination of Trump’s nonchalance about the Strait and the over-arching geopolitical threat from Xi (combined with a disappointing outcome from the talks in terms of tangible trade deals) are enough to trump the Gamma Squeeze in AI/Semis (so far).
So now the question becomes:
Does the US feel compelled to escalate further (with China… or Iran)?
Markets are understandably skittish into the weekend risk window, which combined with the options expiration removing a chunk of positive (stabilizing) gamma, leaves markets more free to move (up or down).
END
The Global Bond Market Is Screaming: Inflation Is Coming Back
by Phoenix Capital Research
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 10:10
The global bond market is SCREAMING that inflation is coming back… but the rest of the financial system is ignoring this warning.
By quick way of review… the Fed has rates at 3.5%, but the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury which the Fed typically follows is over 4%. This suggests that the Fed WON’T be cutting rates again in 2026 and that in fact, we can expect some rate hikes in the next 24 months.
This is an EXTREMELY bullish chart. If this were a stock, you’d call this a major breakout. However, this is a bond yield, which means higher inflation is incoming.
It’s critical to note that this is a global phenomenon, not confined to just the U.S. The yield on the 2-Year UK Government bond is also breaking out to the upside…
And the yield on the 2-Year Japanese Government bond has gone absolutely parabolic.
Put simply, the global bond market is SCREAMING that inflation is on the rise globally. Some asset classes will do great in this environment… others will get obliterated.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use profit from the next major bull run in precious metals miners.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that rallied 75%, 140%, 150%, 180%, 280% and an incredible 574% in 2025! And I wouldn’t be surprised to see them repeat this performance in 2026.
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but in light of what is unfolding today, we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
To grab one of the last remaining copies…
WRAP UP:
tocks sold in risk-off trade amid rise in global yields – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 04:04 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
- REAR VIEW: Trump said he is okay with Iran suspending nuclear programme for 20 years, but there has to be a real commitment; Trump leaves China; Trump said they may or may not approve Taiwan weapons; Iranian Foreign Minister remarked contradictory messages from the US remain the main issue & “we have received messages from the US saying that they are seeking continued talks”.
- COMING UP: Holidays: Canadian Victoria Day. Data: Chinese Industrial Production (Apr), Unemployment Rate (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr). Speakers: BoE’s Greene, Mann. Supply: Japan, the EU. Earnings: Baidu, Ryanair.
- WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include NVDA earnings, FOMC Minutes, UK, Canadian, Japanese and NZ inflation. Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES Tech behemoth NVDA the highlight. Click here for the full report.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
- 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
US indices closed the last session of the week in the red with all sectors lower, aside from Energy, as Materials and Utilities lag, while broad based mega-cap weakness added to the losses. Energy was the only sector in the green and buoyed by gains in the crude complex amid renewed escalation risk as Trump returned from China and attention turned back to Iran. On that, little incrementally new came out of the Xi/Trump summit, and many await Trump’s return from China. As a reminder, source reports through the week suggested Trump is weighing up possibly resuming military action, but sources added they don’t think he would order any before he returns from China, while Israeli sources added that readiness will be raised upon the end of Trump’s visit. There was plenty of commentary from Trump and the Iranian Foreign Minister on Friday, with the latter noting “we have received messages from the US saying that they are seeking continued talks”. The Dollar Index saw gains with Antipodeans, the clear G10 laggards, and hit by losses in metals and risk sentiment. Treasuries saw pressure, as yields rose, as higher oil prices added to inflation fears in quite a quiet newsflow in the US afternoon. Into the weekend, attention still lies on any indication whether Trump is set to resume military operations against Iran this weekend.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLE 30 TICKS LOWER 109-05+
T-notes moved lower across the curve on Friday, with yields rising as higher oil prices added to inflation fears. At settlement, 2-year +6.9bps at 4.084%, 3-year +9.1bps at 4.147%, 5-year +11.3bps at 4.262%, 7-year +11.8bps at 4.428%, 10-year +11.4bps at 4.597%, 20-year +11.3bps at 5.146%, 30-year +10.0bps at 5.130%.
THE DAY: Treasury trade was once again dictated by crude price action and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices rallied throughout the session, weighing on T-notes and pushing yields higher across the curve as inflation concerns rebuilt.
The geopolitical backdrop remains fluid. Iran’s Foreign Minister suggested the US had reached out regarding further negotiations, although markets remain wary that President Trump could authorise a resumption of strikes against Iran once he returns to the US later tonight, with some desks expecting any decision to potentially come over the weekend.
On the data front, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production both topped expectations, although the releases generated little meaningful market reaction, with focus remaining firmly on oil prices and geopolitics.
Meanwhile, Fed speak focused on the balance sheet debate ahead of Fed Chair nominee Warsh’s expected arrival at the Fed. Fed’s Barr pushed back against arguments for a materially smaller balance sheet, potentially setting up future debate within the Fed given Warsh’s preference for a smaller balance sheet and reduced holdings of longer-dated Treasuries.
Elsewhere, Gilts also came under pressure amid growing political uncertainty in the UK. The Manchester Mayor Burnham is looking to re-enter parliament, while Streeting’s resignation potentially sets up a future leadership contest involving Burnham, Streeting and Starmer. The weakness in Gilts added to the broader bearish tone in global fixed income markets and likely contributed to some follow-through pressure in Treasuries.
Overall, price action remained dominated by energy markets and geopolitics, with higher oil prices lifting inflation expectations and weighing on the Treasury complex.
SUPPLY
Notes
- US to sell USD 16bln of 20-year bonds on May 20th; to settle June 1st; to sell USD 19bln of 10-year TIPS; to settle May 29th
Bills
- US to sell USD 89bln of 13-week bills (prev. 89bln) and USD 77bln of 26-week bills (prev. 77bln) on May 18th.
- US to sell USD 85bln of 6-week bills on May 19th (prev. 80bln)
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Pricing: Dec 16.5bps (prev. 11.9bps)
- EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 120bln (prev. USD 123bln) on May 14th
- SOFR at 3.56% (prev. 3.59%), volumes at USD 3.115tln (prev. USD 3.119tln) on May 14th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 0.647bln (prev. 2.034bln) across 5 counterparties (prev. 8)
CRUDE
WTI (M6) SETTLED USD 4.25 HIGHER AT USD 105.42/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLED USD 3.54 HIGHER AT USD 109.26/BBL
The crude complex saw gains to end the week on renewed escalation risk as Trump returned from China and attention turned back to Iran. Both Trump and Araghchi were frequently on the wires, with the Iranian Foreign Minister giving more market-moving headlines. Recapping, he said they have received messages from the US saying that they are seeking continued talks, and that Iran is trying to maintain the ceasefire to give diplomacy a chance, and will return to talks if the US is ready for a fair deal. However, he did add that contradictory messages from the US remain the main issue. As such, attention over the weekend will be on any escalation or de-escalation. For the record, in the weekly Baker Hughes rig count, oil rose 5 to 415, natgas fell 1 to 418, leaving the total up 3 at 551. To end the week, WTI traded between USD 97.23-101.39/bbl and Brent USD 106.26-109.75/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -1.24% at 7,408, NDX -1.54% at 29,125, DJI -1.07% at 49,531, RUT -2.44% at 2,793
SECTORS: Materials -2.74%, Utilities -2.40%, Consumer Discretionary -1.83%, Industrials -1.81%, Technology -1.61%, Real Estate -1.56%, Health -1.08%, Communication Services -0.98%, Financials -0.32%, Consumer Staples -0.32%, Energy +2.32%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -1.74% at 5,824, Dax 40 -2.05% at 23,955, FTSE 100 -1.71% at 10,195, CAC 40 -1.60% at 7,953, FTSE MIB -1.87% at 49,116, IBEX 35 -1.22% at 17,593, PSI -1.00% at 9,033, SMI +0.05% at 13,220, AEX -1.09% at 1,010.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Applied Materials (AMAT): Earnings beat offset by risk-off mood.
- Figma (FIG): Beat earnings & raised guidance.
- Boot Barn (BOOT): Earnings & outlook topped expectations.
- Blackstone and CD&R are reportedly some of the firms considering a bid for Magnum Ice Cream (MICC).
- Elliott Investment Management has taken a stake in DexCom (DXCM).
- Babcock & Wilcox (BW) announced a USD 200mln common stock offering.
- Papa John’s (PZZA) largest US franchisee, Nadeem Bajwa, is joining Irth Capital’s buyout bid for PZZA.
- C.H. Robinson (CHRW) upgraded at Citi to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’.
- A.O. Smith (AOS) downgraded at JPM to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Neutral’.
- SpaceX picks Nasdaq as listing venue for its IPO, according to reports, citing sources; SpaceX to price initial public offering as early as June 11, set to list shares on June 12; set to trade under ticker ‘SPCX’.
- Twenty people in Japan who took an Amgen (AMGN) rare immune-disease drug have died, according to the company that sells the Medicine in Japan; US drug regulators had asked Amgen to voluntarily withdraw the drug.
FX
USD was firmer in response to a global rally in government bond yields as inflation concerns intensified. A longer duration of the conflict is being increasingly considered as we look to conclude another week of no progress towards a long-lasting resolution. Overall, the Trump-Xi meeting offered little new on Iran, apart from both wanting the obvious, the Strait of Hormuz to be open. Trump, speaking to Fox News, said he is okay with Iran suspending its nuclear programme for 20 years, but there has to be a real commitment. Nonetheless, oil prices settled near highs as tangible progress remains to be seen, leaving the US 2yr at a new YTD high of 4.086%. Aside from the above, newsflow was light as global risk-off in equities contributed towards the USD strength and underperformance in high beta FX. DXY gained every day this week, ending at WTD highs of from the 98.04 open.
JPY saw some relative outperformance in the G10 space despite the uptick in global yields and higher oil prices, as lacklustre risk-taking worked to its benefit. USD/JPY now trades ~158.71, nearing the 160 level that participants may be wary of given the recent intervention. It remains an open question how effective the intervention will be, given the factors that would likely drive JPY strength are factors outside the MoF’s control
Antipodes were hit the most to end the week, weighed by the risk-averse mood, a broad sell-off in metals, and higher energy prices. AUD/USD now trades around 0.7150 and NZD/USD at 0.5840.
USA DATA RELEASE
US Industrial Production Surged In April
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 09:27 AM
Despite record low consumer sentiment (if you believe UMich), this morning saw the Empire Fed survey show New York state factory activity expanded in May at the fastest pace in four years, and firms grew more optimistic about the outlook.
That was followed by a much hotter than expected Industrial Production print (up 0.7% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp and higher than the highest estimate) for April (and March’s decline revised stronger), lifting annual growth up to +1.35% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
April’s gain for US industrial production was the largest since February 2025.
Manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent in April after edging up 0.1 percent in March.
The production of durables increased 1.2 percent in April, with gains in most categories.
The largest increase was in the output of motor vehicles and parts, which jumped 3.7 percent.
Nondurable manufacturing production edged down 0.1 percent, as declines in several categories – notably the indexes for chemicals and for plastics and rubber products, which both decreased 0.9 percent – were mostly offset by increases in the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products, for printing and support, and for petroleum and coal products.
Mining output edged down 0.1 percent in April after falling 1.6 percent in March.
The output of utilities increased 1.9 percent in April, with gains in both electric and natural gas utilities.
Capacity Utilization continued to rise to 76.1% (better than the 75.8% expected)…
So, if Americans are so pissed off (UMich), why is production and factory activity (and retail sales) picking up?
END
Home Prices Register Biggest Annual Increase In More Than A Year: Report
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 01:45 PM
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The median home sales price in the United States jumped 2.4 percent in April from a year ago, the largest increase since March 2025, real estate brokerage Redfin said in a May 12 statement.
The company attributed the price increase to more buyers entering the housing market amid a stabilizing job market. In April, the United States added 115,000 jobs, well above the expected 62,000.
“The April jobs report showed stronger-than-expected hiring, reducing recession risk. This likely helped fuel a pop in housing demand. Pending home sales hit the highest level since February 2023 last month, rising 2 percent from the month before—the largest increase since March 2025,” Redfin said.
In addition to buyers coming off the sidelines, sellers are also doing the same, with active listings of homes for sale in April hitting the highest level since March 2020.
Lower mortgage rates are incentivizing prospective buyers to consider purchases. Last year, the weekly average rate of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had hit an annual peak of 7.04 percent in mid-January, according to data from Freddie Mac.
The rate has come down to 6.37 percent for the week ending May 6. It had declined below the 6 percent level in February, the first time this has happened since September 2022.
Amid the jump in home sale prices in April, discounts offered on home purchases are tapering, Redfin said.
Last month, the share of homes sold for less than their original listed price was 60.5 percent—the sixth straight month of decline. According to the brokerage, securing discounts is getting harder as demand grows and sellers price homes more competitively.
“Homebuyer demand increased significantly at the end of March following a relatively quiet period in January and February. This is the first time post-pandemic I’ve felt the frenzy and comeback of a true spring market,” said Dawn Kane, a Redfin Premier real estate agent.
“Still, sellers must maintain realistic pricing strategies. Market data and buyer activity indicate that overpriced homes remain on the market longer, while competitively priced properties sell more quickly and efficiently, often receiving multiple offers.”
In a May 6 post, real estate marketplace Zillow suggested that if mortgage rates were to fall back to the 6 percent range seen earlier this year, home sales figures could improve.
Prospective buyers who saw through last year’s markets now have more options and improved affordability while choosing their homes. Last month, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home declined 3.4 percent year over year to $1,829, Zillow said.
Housing Construction, Improving Affordability
On the construction side, housing construction “bounced back” in March, with builders ramping up production, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said in an April 29 statement.
NAHB Chairman Bill Owens said that the rebound suggests builders are responding to regional improvements in housing demand despite affordability challenges.
Privately owned housing construction starts had risen by 10.8 percent in March from a year back, according to April 29 data from the Census Bureau. This uptick in housing starts could be a positive signal that the sector may be stabilizing, Owens said.
“Single-family starts drove much of the monthly increase, indicating that builders are cautiously ramping up production to meet persistent inventory shortages in the resale market,” said Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis.
“While this is an encouraging sign, the pace of construction is likely to remain measured as builders continue to navigate elevated financing costs and labor availability.”
The Trump administration has taken various measures to improve housing affordability.
In late April, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Department of Agriculture revoked a policy on energy standards for newly built single-family and multifamily homes.
If the standards were enforced, home construction costs would have risen by $20,000 to $31,000, HUD said. This could have pushed many first-time buyers out of the housing market.
Last month, HUD announced that the Federal Housing Administration has joined with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to implement new mortgage credit score models that seek to make home buying more affordable.
“This historic move is intended to lower costs for the American people after years of rising prices under the status quo credit score system,” the department said.
END
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Trump is doing a good job!!
(Havek)
Murders Down Roughly 20% In 2025, FBI Preliminary Data Show
Thursday, May 14, 2026 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The FBI on Sunday published an early glimpse at annual crime data, releasing preliminary 2025 data alongside first-quarter 2026 numbers that together show that violent crime has dropped sharply.
The figures, typically released at the end of summer, marked the first time the bureau furnished a preview of annual crime tallies before the end of the following spring.
The first-quarter 2026 numbers, drawn from 67 major law enforcement agencies, showed homicides fell 17.7 percent against the same period last year, robberies fell 20.4 percent, reported rapes declined 7.2 percent, and aggravated assaults dropped 4.8 percent. Declines appeared in every region of the country, according to the bureau.
Among cities registering the steepest homicide reductions from January through March are Washington, D.C., down 64.7 percent; Philadelphia, 54 percent; San Diego, 50 percent; Houston, 36.4 percent; Memphis, Tennessee, 34.4 percent; New York City, 31.7 percent; and Los Angeles, 23 percent.
The 2025 full-year figures anchoring the release were equally stark.
The FBI recorded a 20 percent drop in the national murder rate, the largest single-year decrease ever captured in FBI data, alongside a 31 percent rise in fentanyl seizures, rescue of more than 6,000 child victims, and a 290 percent increase in gang disruptions. FBI Director Kash Patel told The Epoch Times that the achievements were the result of a “full-scale reset of the FBI—operationally, culturally, and fiscally.”
In 2025, FBI arrests climbed 197 percent, from 34,000 to 67,000; 1,800 gangs and criminal enterprises were dismantled—a 210 percent increase—and more than 30,000 were arrested for violent crimes, nearly double from 2024.
The U.S. homicide rate in 2025 fell 21 percent from 2024—44 percent below the 2021 pandemic peak, according to a report by the Council on Criminal Justice, which analyzed data from 40 large cities. The group projected that when the FBI finalized its annual report, the national homicide rate would stand at roughly 4.0 per 100,000 residents, the lowest recorded in law enforcement or public health data stretching back to 1900.
Patel hinted at the historic nature of the data for months.
“We are on track to have the lowest murder rate in modern American history. The lowest murder rate by double-digit percentages,” he told the Senate Judiciary Committee in September 2025. He attributed the shift in large part to the FBI’s Operation Summer Heat, noting that in New Orleans and Nashville alone, violent crime arrests climbed an average of 250 percent each.
A month later, Patel told The Epoch Times’s Jan Jekielek that homicides had fallen by double digits nationwide.
“I’m happy to announce, finally, that one of the big targets we had for this year, obviously, was to reduce the murder rate across America,” he said.
In October 2025, Trump and Patel announced that Operation Summer Heat resulted in more than 8,700 arrests and a 20 percent drop in violent crime in targeted cities. Trump, in a Truth Social post days later, said that since he was inaugurated, 28,000 violent criminals have been arrested, more than 6,000 illegal firearms were removed from the street, 5,000 children have been rescued, and 2,000 criminal enterprises have been disrupted—calling them “historic results.”
end
LOS ANGELES
Spencer Pratt Within Single-Digit Territory Of Far-Left L.A. Mayor Karen Bass
Thursday, May 14, 2026 – 07:40 PM
A new public opinion survey from Emerson College Polling, a nonpartisan polling center based at Emerson College, shows that far-left incumbent Mayor Karen Bass remains the frontrunner in the Los Angeles mayoral race, though challenger Spencer Pratt appears to be gaining popularity and traction, which has clearly alarmed the Democratic Party.
Local outlet Spectrum News 1 SoCal cited Emerson College’s new poll of the L.A. mayoral race, which shows Bass at 30%, Pratt at 22% (gaining ground), and Socialist Councilmember Nithya Raman at 19%.
The poll, conducted between May 9 and 10, came just a few days after the L.A. mayoral debate last Wednesday. An NBC Los Angeles poll showed Pratt dominated, with 88% of respondents saying he won.
Spencer Pratt has been surging in popularity across L.A., thanks to his social media team’s impressive ability to go viral online, generating millions of likes, retweets, and views.
He has been particularly effective in messaging:
In L.A., that has not been difficult, as he has simply pointed out the truth: far-left Bass and her administration of leftists in City Hall have transformed the metro area into a DEI kingdom of crime and chaos in just a few short years through failed progressive policies.
Earlier this week, TMZ tried to derail Pratt’s campaign with a piece about how he was not living in an Airstream trailer on his burned-out property in the Palisades, which he blames Bass for failing to protect during the fire.
Well, that backfired.
“Raman will drop out and Bass will surge, and in order for Pratt to make it beyond June 2, Bass needs to stay under 50%,” political commentator Katie Zacharia noted on X.
State-level Republicans nationwide should take note of Pratt’s effective campaign strategy and simply copy it. The truth about how Democrats ruined cities with nation-killing progressive policies is very easy to communicate to voters.
END
NEW YORK CITY
homes bought without a mortgage!! another stupid scheme!!
Communist Mamdani’s Latest Redistribution Scheme: Tax On All New York Homes Over $1 Million Bought With Cash
Thursday, May 14, 2026 – 05:20 PM
Two days ago crestfallen commie mayor Zohran Mamdani abandoned his desperate plan to aggressively hike property taxes (even more) on New Yorkers following unprecedented pushback (but not before earning the former capitalist mecca a credit rating downgrade warning from most rating agencies). However, since communists who are not redistributing wealth (eventually under the barrel of a gun) are useless communists, it only took Mamdani administration 48 hours before pitching his latest idea how to take: according to Bloomberg, New York lawmakers are planning a new tax on New York City homes purchased in cash for at least $1 million. The lawmakers are also considering expanding the tax to all-cash purchases over $1 million in New York, including those in the suburbs and upstate.
The New York City levy alone is expected to raise $160 million to help fill the city’s budget hole. The proposed tax would be levied at 1% of the purchase price and would be paid by the buyer, according to the people.
A spokesperson for Governor Kathy Hochul said she “announced a general agreement with the State Legislature on many of the major elements of the FY 2027 Budget. The final budget bills will provide additional details.”
All-cash transactions have risen in New York as soaring mortgage costs have deterred financing, and instead buyers opt to be hit with capital gains taxes and liquidated other securities to fund real estate purchases. They are also an attractive option for sellers in New York City’s ultra-competitive real estate market as it’s faster than dealing with the lengthy mortgage approval process, and less likely to fall through.
Such purchases made up more than 60% of the nearly 18,000 transactions in New York City in the first six months of 2025, according to data compiled by the Center for New York City Neighborhoods. The report found that in Manhattan, nine out of 10 purchases over $3 million were done in all-cash transactions between January and June of 2025.
New York Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said the tax would be included in the final budget as “part of the plan to help close the city’s deficit.” State Senator James Skoufis, who sits on the chamber’s finance committee, also said in an interview the new levy was discussed.
Mamdani unveiled his $124.7 billion budget plan for the fiscal year that starts on July 1 that includes more assistance from Albany. He is also counting on funds from a proposed tax on second homes worth more than $5 million that state and city lawmakers are still figuring out how to implement. Hochul said the state will send $4 billion in new aid to the city to help close the budget hole.
“New Yorkers are already the most heavily taxed residents in the country, and the city’s budget issues will not be solved by more taxes,” said James Whelan, president of the Real Estate Board of New York. He said that the new proposal would further burden home buyers and sellers in the city and threaten existing revenue.
There are other problems with the proposal: New Yorkers already pay a 1% mansion tax, rising to 3.9%, on homes over $1 million whether paying with cash or financing. On top of that, even the wealthiest cash buyers aren’t usually just wiring cash from their bank accounts to buy homes. They sell assets (i.e. stocks) to generate the cash. This liquidation is subject to heavy capital gains taxes already that go to both the federal government and also the state of NY. This tax is usually far ins excess of any 1% “cash” tax this idiotic Mamdani administration is proposing.
As some social media commentators were quick to point out correctly, “There are bad policy ideas, and then there are those that make absolutely zero sense. This is the latter.”
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 15, 2026 Issue 7743 | Independent View of the News |
| FT: US-China relations depend on Taiwan, Xi warns Trump Chinese president tells US counterpart there are ‘no winners’ in trade war WSJ: Xi’s Taiwan Warning Highlights Tensions Behind Summit The Chinese leader’s comment to President Trump that any mishandling of Taiwan could lead to “an extremely dangerous situation” raised an issue that has loomed over Trump’s trip… WSJ: White House Says Trump, Xi Agree Iran Shouldn’t Control Strait Trump invites the Chinese leader to visit the White House in September and hails ‘positive and productive’ meetings at the summit in Beijing WH: “President Xi also made clear China’s opposition to the militarization of the Strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use, and he expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China’s dependence on the Strait in the future. Both countries agreed Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.” Xi: “I have agreed with President Trump on a new vision of building a constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability. This will provide strategic guidance for China-U.S. relations over the next three years and beyond.” Trump: “[Xi] said he’s not gonna give [Iran] military equipment. That’s a big statement.” https://x.com/MaryMargOlohan/status/2054957897210089732 Xi: China, US should be partners, not rivals “China and the United States both stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. We should be partners, not rivals. We should help each other succeed and prosper together,” he said… https://www.chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/633457 @josh_hammer: “Beijing’s posture and actions are consistent with those aimed at an adversary in a long, grinding cold war. Washington needs to view Beijing in the same way.” Rubio: “U.S. policy on the issue of Taiwan is unchanged as of today and as of the meeting that we had here today. It was raised; they always raise it on their side, we always make clear our position, and we move on.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2055049403916812361 Initial Jobless Claims 211k, 205k exp; Continuing Claims 1.782m, 1.78m exp Apr Retail Sales 0.5% m/m as exp; Ex-Autos 0.7% as exp; Ex-Autos & Gas 0.5%, 0.3% exp. March Business Inventories 0.9% m/m as expected. Retail Sales are NOT inflation adjusted. Inflation-adjusted retail sales have been soft for years. https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2054996648233783324 April Import Price Index 1.9% m/m & 4.2% y/y, 1.0% m/m & 3.1% expected; March revised to 0.9% m/m from 0.8% m/m & 2.3% y/y from 2.1%. Import Price Index ex-petroleum 0.7%, 0.5% expected March revised to 0.0% from 0.1%. Export Price Index 3.3% m/m & 8.8% y/y; 1.2% m/m & 7.0% y/y expected; March revised to 1.5% m/m from 1.6% and 5.4% y/y from 5.6% US Import and Export Prices Jump Most Since 2022 on Fuel Costs – BBG @infraa: I got bad news, and I got really bad news… PPI leads CPI by about 2 months. CPI already printed the highest level in 3 years, and it looks like it’s only going to get much worse. https://x.com/infraa_/status/2054546204470747215 @FarmPolicy: The index for the #price of raw materials among food, energy, and chemical manufacturers rose from 29 in March to 74 in April, which was the fastest rate of increase since February 2022. https://x.com/FarmPolicy/status/2053911375395631494 In the services sector, the index for #input prices at grocery stores, restaurants, and gas stations has remained comparably higher than other establishments in recent years and increased sharply in April. https://x.com/FarmPolicy/status/2053911377165586887 @KobeissiLetter: The average price of ground beef in the US is now up to a record $6.90 per pound. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, ground beef prices have exceeded $7.00 per pound for the first time in history. Prices have surged +77% since January 2020, when they stood at $3.89 per pound. Furthermore, the average price of uncooked beef steaks is up to a record $13.02 per pound, surging +70% since January 2020. Ground beef prices have now DOUBLED since 2013. Food inflation is running hotter than ever. @FreightAlley: Truckload spot rates on the daily chart have exploded to $3.50/mile. This is $.41/mile higher than a week ago and a new cycle high, moving close to all-time highs ($3.68/mile). While this relates to Roadcheck week, the message is clear: capacity is at its tightest levels in years. https://x.com/FreightAlley/status/2054877406398197853 @scotus_wire: The Supreme Court unanimously ruled that federal law does not shield freight brokers from state negligence lawsuits when they hire unsafe trucking companies. https://x.com/scotus_wire/status/2054925827830382713 Large trucking stocks soared on the SCOTUS decision. Any illegal immigrant or legal immigrant drivers not functional in English that get in accidents will cost truckers dearly. Trucker salaries and insurance rates could inflate significantly, which will crush small trucking firms. China to buy 200 Boeing jets, Trump says, fewer than expected (500; BA -5% at low) https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-has-agreed-to-buy-200-boeing-jets-trump-says-2026-05-14/ ESMs opened modestly higher on Wednesday night and rallied to 7489.00 (+19.50) at 20:58 ET. They then fell to 7471.00, the daily low, (+1.50) at 0:04 ET. ESMs then commenced a stair step rally, with mostly steep steps up and down, to 7508.00 (+38.50) at 10:20 ET. Fangs and tech led the early rally. After a dip to 7499.50 at 10:28 ET, ESM want nearly vertical to 7533.00 at 11:28 ET on another manipulation. After a minor retreat, ESMs surged o 7540.00 at 12:06 ET. Since March 30 lows to Thursday highs, SOX Index +63%, Nasdaq 100 +29.3%, S&P 500 +19%. Grains plunged on Thursday because there was NO announcement of China purchases. July Soybeans tumbled as much as 47.5 cents; July Corn fell 15 cents at low; July Wheat sank 25.25 cents. Positive aspects of previous session Like the dawn follows night, bond traders marketed up their positions after the Treasury Auction. USMs rallied as much as 23/32. Gasoline fell over 4 cents, but WTI Oil rallied a few cents. The DJIA was strong early; the DJTA was -70+ by 10:40 ET. Cisco hit +17.14% at 9:35 ET. (Boosted Q4 sales guidance to $16.7B-16.9B from $15.8B; cut 4k jobs) Cisco Q3 EPS 1.06, 1.04 expected; Sales $15.841B, $15.572B expected. Minor beat, soared on AI hype Negative aspects of previous session The AI Bubble keeps inflating and is bubbling up other stocks and equity indices. The S&P 500 Index peaked at 12:06 ET. USMs were +0/32 at 16:30 ET, down from +23/32 Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the expiry manipulation over? Stocks sagged after noon-ish peak. Will the US resume attacks on Iran when Trump returns from China? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7490.92 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7517.12; 7454.40 Trump revamps stock portfolio, adding Nvidia and other AI names https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/trump-revamps-stock-portfolio-adding-164548227.html @unusual_whales: Trump bought DELL. He bought multiple times since February 10th, up to more than $5,000,000. On May 8th, he said: “Go out and buy a Dell.” He owned millions of DELL at that point. (Grifters gonna grift and promote a tech bubble! Never give MAGA suckers an even break!) Cerebras shares closed up 68% at $311.07 in the company’s Nasdaq debut after it raised $5.5B in the year’s largest IPO, giving it a market value of $67B – BBG (Net income for FY25 was $237.83m) Kushner Disappoints Mideast Clients Who Spent Millions for Sway – BBG He’s engaged in a campaign for official peacemaking private money making like none in modern history. Between attempts to broker peace Kushner has participated in investment meetings at his private equity firm, Affinity Partners, which manages billions for Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates… They’ve agreed to pay Kushner’s firm tens of millions of dollars in fees annually in hopes of gaining influence at the White House as well as returns for their portfolios… Publicly and privately, Kushner has made clear he has no intention of disclosing more about his finances. He has said that he doesn’t have to, because he’s a volunteer with no formal administrative role… His financial interest, today and in the future, now hang but nobody knows the right box Talk to him over his diplomatic work, his critics say. Founded in 2021, Affinity has pulled in most of his assets from golf wealth funds and investment firms… Stephen Miran (DJT BFF) submitted his resignation as a member of the Federal Reserve Board. Balance sheet: +18. 997B on T-Bills +15.174B; Reserves+ $70.222B @dferris1961: S&P 500 lowest dividend yield in recorded history. (1.05%) https://x.com/dferris1961/status/2054744240425500810 Today – Is the expiry manipulation over? The S&P 500 Index peaked at 12:06 ET. USMs peaked at 9:48 ET and hit a daily low of 112 2/32 (unch) at 16:27 ET. The 2-year hit 4.017% at 16:50 ET. If there is no manipulation, the massive number of expiring May calls should weigh on stocks. ESMs are -7.75; NQMs are -22.50; WTI oil is +$0.80; gasoline is +2.16c; the 2-year is at 4.029%; the 30-year is at 5.043%; and USMs are -16/32 at 20:45 ET. WATCH US BONDS & NOTES! Expected Economic Data: Empire Manufacturing for May 7.3; April Industrial Production 0.3% m/m, Manufacturing Production 0.2%, Capacity Utilization 75.8% S&P Index 50-day MA: 6897; 100-day MA: 6900; 150-day MA: 6855; 200-day MA: 6769 DJIA 50-day MA: 47,931;100-day MA: 48,527; 150-day MA: 48,071; 200-day MA: 47,405 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (7501.24 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6513.48 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7351.60 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7425.10 triggers a sell signal Trump: The guy that came up to Mitch McConnell today when McConnell thought the hearing was over and started speaking in his ear for Mitch to belatedly introduce some other people, all Democrats and, by doing so, made Mitch look foolish and completely out of it, should be immediately fired! This was a case where Mitch wasn’t confused, he just didn’t understand why he was being asked to do something when it was too late, and people were wrapping up to leave — They wanted to go home. His name is Robert Karem, he is a Never Trumper, and was grandstanding — trying to show how “important” he was! Karem has tremendous Democrat support, far greater than he should have, and is praised relentlessly by Obama’s people. He is probably the reason why Mitch McConnell is stupidly opposed to terminating the Filibuster, and refuses to help with a 97% issue, THE SAVE AMERICA ACT. FIRE THE BUM! https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/trump-demands-gop-staffer-fired-for-making-mitch-mcconnell-look-out-of-it/ar-AA234Eh9?ocid=BingNewsSerp Biden FBI secretly set up Trump to be indicted after he leaves office, Arctic Frost memos suggest Jack Smith’s team primed their criminal case against Donald Trump to resume once his presidency ends. https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/fbi-and-jack-smith-prosecutor-sought-hold-anti-trump-evidence-until-he-left Daily Mail Explosive Supreme Court LEAK reveals stinging whispers about ‘belligerent’ justice… read the wild rants troubling both sides of the aisle – Conservative Court insiders, who opposed Jackson’s nomination, tell me the justice’s belligerence has grown alongside the disappointment of an activist who has discovered she cannot do what President Biden wanted: make policy… ‘Ever since Justice Jackson arrived,’ the New York Times reported last October, ‘friction has been building: between her and Justices Sotomayor and Kagan, who are more aligned strategically, and between her and the rest of the Court.’… ‘She has made herself an outsider even among her Democrat-appointed colleagues,’… Ironically, Jackson’s antagonistic, highly personalized style is widely seen as damaging her ideological compatriots on the Court, the Living Constitutionalists, more than the originalists. https://www.dailymail.com/debate/article-15811897/supreme-court-justices-fury-exposed.html Explosive device found, detonated at Mobile water reservoir Multi-agency team safely removed grenade-type IED discovered by divers at Converse Reservoir dam https://www.fox10tv.com/2026/05/13/explosive-device-found-detonated-mobile-water-reservoir/ CNN: Cuba says CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with interior minister in Havana The island deals with a collapse of its energy sector amid rising tensions with the US… https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/cuba-says-cia-director-john-ratcliffe-met-with-interior-minister-in-havana/ar-AA23dlen | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Communist Mamdani’s Latest Redistribution Scheme: Tax On All New York Homes Over $1 Million Bought With Cash
Thursday, May 14, 2026 – 05:20 PM
Two days ago crestfallen commie mayor Zohran Mamdani abandoned his desperate plan to aggressively hike property taxes (even more) on New Yorkers following unprecedented pushback (but not before earning the former capitalist mecca a credit rating downgrade warning from most rating agencies). However, since communists who are not redistributing wealth (eventually under the barrel of a gun) are useless communists, it only took Mamdani administration 48 hours before pitching his latest idea how to take: according to Bloomberg, New York lawmakers are planning a new tax on New York City homes purchased in cash for at least $1 million. The lawmakers are also considering expanding the tax to all-cash purchases over $1 million in New York, including those in the suburbs and upstate.
The New York City levy alone is expected to raise $160 million to help fill the city’s budget hole. The proposed tax would be levied at 1% of the purchase price and would be paid by the buyer, according to the people.
A spokesperson for Governor Kathy Hochul said she “announced a general agreement with the State Legislature on many of the major elements of the FY 2027 Budget. The final budget bills will provide additional details.”
All-cash transactions have risen in New York as soaring mortgage costs have deterred financing, and instead buyers opt to be hit with capital gains taxes and liquidated other securities to fund real estate purchases. They are also an attractive option for sellers in New York City’s ultra-competitive real estate market as it’s faster than dealing with the lengthy mortgage approval process, and less likely to fall through.
Such purchases made up more than 60% of the nearly 18,000 transactions in New York City in the first six months of 2025, according to data compiled by the Center for New York City Neighborhoods. The report found that in Manhattan, nine out of 10 purchases over $3 million were done in all-cash transactions between January and June of 2025.
New York Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said the tax would be included in the final budget as “part of the plan to help close the city’s deficit.” State Senator James Skoufis, who sits on the chamber’s finance committee, also said in an interview the new levy was discussed.
Mamdani unveiled his $124.7 billion budget plan for the fiscal year that starts on July 1 that includes more assistance from Albany. He is also counting on funds from a proposed tax on second homes worth more than $5 million that state and city lawmakers are still figuring out how to implement. Hochul said the state will send $4 billion in new aid to the city to help close the budget hole.
“New Yorkers are already the most heavily taxed residents in the country, and the city’s budget issues will not be solved by more taxes,” said James Whelan, president of the Real Estate Board of New York. He said that the new proposal would further burden home buyers and sellers in the city and threaten existing revenue.
There are other problems with the proposal: New Yorkers already pay a 1% mansion tax, rising to 3.9%, on homes over $1 million whether paying with cash or financing. On top of that, even the wealthiest cash buyers aren’t usually just wiring cash from their bank accounts to buy homes. They sell assets (i.e. stocks) to generate the cash. This liquidation is subject to heavy capital gains taxes already that go to both the federal government and also the state of NY. This tax is usually far ins excess of any 1% “cash” tax this idiotic Mamdani administration is proposing.
As some social media commentators were quick to point out correctly, “There are bad policy ideas, and then there are those that make absolutely zero sense. This is the latter.”
END
Billionaire Democrat Donor Who Bankrolled Swalwell Breaks Silence After Surprise Arrest
Thursday, May 14, 2026 – 06:00 PM
Billionaire and Democrat donor Stephen Cloobeck was arrested Tuesday in Los Angeles on suspicion of felony charges of attempting to prevent or dissuade a victim or witness from testifying after a warrant was issued for his arrest.
Cloobeck, founder of Diamond Resorts – who until recently was a major financial supporter of former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s (D) failed campaign for California governor, was booked into custody in West Hollywood, according to Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department records. He was later released on $300,000 bail.
In a terse statement to the California Post, a press representative for Cloobeck said of the arrest: “These charges are false and we look forward to our day in court.”
Cloobeck cut ties with Swalwell following multiple allegations of sexual assault – but not before the now-former congressman recorded a bizarre apology video from inside his swanky mansion.
“I was with my counsel and we had a chat with him, I just told him, ‘You busted the trust,’” Cloobeck said of Swalwell at the time the allegations broke. “I’m shocked, I’m disturbed and get the fuck out of here.’ Then I walked away and that was it.”
“I was blown away!” the billionaire claimed. “Like blown away. Like, there’s no way I would have endorsed him. It’s such a shock.”
The billionaire, who briefly ran for governor himself last year before dropping out to support Swalwell, has since rebranded himself a Republican.
“I am no longer supporting Eric. Fucking tell everyone I’m a libertarian. Fuck you, Democrat Party,” he told the California Post.
Cloobeck has also recently made headlines thanks to his 28-year-old fiancée, Penthouse Pet Adva Lavie, who faces six felony charges for allegedly preying on older men through dating apps. However, his lover’s legal troubles haven’t impacted the impending nuptials, according to the billionaire.
“The marriage is still on, the date is now a secret,” he said.
END
Democrats In Illinois Just Lost Hundreds Of Violent Criminals
Friday, May 15, 2026 – 09:50 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
In yet another glaring example of failed “criminal justice reform” in blue cities, Cook County, Illinois officials have admitted that 243 dangerous criminals have gone completely AWOL from the county’s pretrial electronic monitoring program.
These include individuals charged with murder, attempted murder, and sexual assault — all supposed to be tracked by ankle monitors while awaiting trial instead of sitting in jail.
The revelation comes straight from Cook County Chief Judge Charles Beach II’s new transparency dashboard, which shows roughly 3,048 people currently on the program with 8 percent unaccounted for.
Of the criminals that have gone missing, 21 have been charged with murder, 13 with attempted murder, 103 with sexual assault, and 173 with aggravated battery.
A former Illinois police chief summed it up bluntly: “They have NO idea where they’re at. NONE. ZERO.”
The criminals were supposed to be on ankle monitors. Instead, they’re lost, prompting what the report called a “wild goose chase.”
State’s Attorney Eileen O’Neill Burke called the figures alarming and warned of more victims if safeguards aren’t tightened.
Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker’s justice reforms — including elements of the controversial SAFE-T Act that pushed pretrial release over detention — are now under fresh scrutiny.
As one Illinois lawmaker noted in a follow-up post: “2,450 defendants on ankle monitors. 590 charged with violent crimes. 210 charged with aggravated weapons offenses. 85 felons caught with guns. 21 MURDER defendants. And 8% are just… gone. AWOL. Nobody knows where they are. THIS is Pritzker’s justice system.”
This isn’t some isolated glitch. The same program was ignored by a known career criminal with 72 prior arrests. He violated curfew, boarded a Chicago train, and set a stranger ON FIRE — exactly the kind of preventable horror that keeps repeating under these policies.
Chicago’s Revolving Door Of Doom: 72 PRIOR ARRESTS Revealed For Train Torcher
These repeat offenders keep being enabled in blue cities:
83-year-old Air Force veteran dies after illegal migrant shoves him onto NYC subway tracks
Recent cases like the cop-killing by an EM violator and the train torching show exactly where this leads. Illinois Democrats sold the public on “fairness” and “equity” in pretrial release.
What they delivered is a system where violent offenders roam free until they strike again — or simply vanish. The ankle monitors were meant to be a safeguard. Instead, they’ve become a joke.
Chief Judge Beach says more data and stricter violation reporting are coming. But after years of the same revolving-door failures, residents aren’t holding their breath.
Blue-city leaders keep doubling down on policies that prioritize criminals over victims. The body count — and the missing-persons list — keeps growing.
This is the predictable result of putting ideology over public safety. Until voters demand real accountability and law-and-order leadership, expect more of the same in Chicago and every other city following the same failed blueprint.
GREG HUNTER….
harveyorganblog.com 
