EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,555.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/15/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 05/19/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 35
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 8
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 136
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 349
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 204
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 1
709 C BARCLAYS 460
905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 597 597
MONTH TO DATE: 4,66
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2026: 597 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 59,700 OZ or 1.8569 TONNES
total notices so far: 4614 contracts FOR 461,400 OZ OR 14.506 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 32 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR .160 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5505 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 27.525 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY OUR TINY 1 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON FOR 5,000 OZ/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.130 MILLION OZ/.//
SUMMARY OF OUR MAY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 46.910 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 1 CONTRACTS/5,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.130 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON EARLY DURING THE MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX.
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27800 OZ/ (0.8646 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 597 CONTRACTS OR 59,700 OZ (1.856 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 11.676 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 28.155 TONNES OF GOLD.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP FOR 597 CONTRACTS/59,700 OZ// 1.856 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3 OCCASIONS: 11.676 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 28.155 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 57.95 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA MEGA STRONG 1664 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 102,852.
EFP ISSUANCE 2083 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 2083 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1664 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2083 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 419 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $7.06
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 2.075 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $7.06
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MAY 18 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.09%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 287.55 PTS OR 1.11%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 642.29 PTS OR 1.08%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.71%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.8003
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8053 Oil UP TO 106.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 110.62 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP (6.8003) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8053 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONG/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 4,601 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 379,800 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET LATE LAST MONTH AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING FRIDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MAY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $118.70).
WE THUS HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 1001 CONTRACTS (OR 31.190 TONNES) WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A STRONG CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.EQUATING TO 3600 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A MONSTER 3,614 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 361,400 OZ OR 11.241 TONNES OF GOLD.THIS IS BY FAR THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: THREE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 3754 CONTRACTS OR 375,400OZ OR 11.676 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: THREE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 3754 CONTRACTS, 375,400 OZ OR 11.676 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MAY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1001 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE ($118.70). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MAY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS FINALLY A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1,376 T.A.S CONTRACTS THUS ENDING THE STREAK OF 5 HUGE ISSUANCES.. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS NOW IN FULL FORCE WITH TODAY’S RAID AND CAPITUALTION ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 3RD ISSUANCE FOR 11.676 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 13.676 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12 AND MAY 18.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 200 OZ (.00622 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 375,400 OZ OR 11.676 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 28.155 TONNESS
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MAY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $118.70)
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX STARTING TO BUILD ON ITS OI //SPREADER LIQUIDATION FOR TODAY,, FRIDAY WILL BE ENORMOUS WHICH I WILL REPORT ON FOR MONDAY.
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $118.70
WE HAD A 4593 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 1001 CONTRACTS OR 100,100 OZ OR 31.166 TONNES
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 18 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 0 |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 597 CONTRACTS OR 59,700 OZ 1.8569 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 634 Contracts 63,400 OZ 1.972 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 4664 notices 466,400 oz 14.506 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 0
xxxx
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI STANDS AT 1231 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 597 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 597 CONTRACTS OR 59,700 OZ (1.856 TONNES)
UNDERWENT A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 9522 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 205,896
JULY GAINED 29 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 1237.
We had 597 contracts filed for today representing 59,700oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 597 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 204 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,664) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1231 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 597 x 100 oz per contract) equals 529,800 OZ OR (16.479 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our THREE exchange for risk issuance for 375,400 oz or 11.676 tonnes//new standing for gold/May again advances to 28.155 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,664) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY( 1231 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 597 x 100 oz per contract) equals 529,800 OZ OR (16.479 Tonnes of gold) plus we must add our THREE exchange for risk issuances of 375,400 oz or 11.676 tonnes/new standing advances to 28.155 tonness
new total of gold standing in MAY ADVANCES TO 28.155 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY 28.155 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
confirmed volume FRIDAY confirmed 198,205// fair// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
the number provided do not match from yesterday!!!
total pledged gold: 1,907,747.506 oz 59.34 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,907,747.506 tonnes oz 59.34 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 28,717,998.972oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,701,327.881OZ 488.3772 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 13,076,671.091 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,793,580 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
429.03 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 18
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of CNT 24,092.323 oz ii_ Out of Delaware: 2992.05 oz total withdrawal 41,720.973 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 1 ENTRIES i) Into Brinks: 89,663.430 oz total deposit 89,663.430 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 32 CONTRACT(S) (0.160 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 921 Contracts (4.605 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5,505 contracts 27.526 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Brinks: 89,663.430 oz
total deposit 89,663.430 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) Out of CNT 24,092.323 oz
ii_ Out of Delaware: 2992.05 oz
total withdrawal 41,720.973 oz
adjustments 1
a) Brinks: customer to dealer: 80,260.500 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 80.907 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 315.149 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2026 OI: 953 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 30 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 29 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON ON FRIDAY SO WE LOST 1 CONTRACT OR 5000 OZ UNWENT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 97 CONTRACTS UP TO 3061 OI CONTRACTS
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 1529 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 74,450 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 32 or 0.160 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume FRIDAY; 91,561 very good
AND NOW MAY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5505 X5,000 oz = 27.525 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (952) AND the number of notices served upon today (32 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2026 contract month: (5,505 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (952) minus number of notices served upon today (32)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY..contract month equating to 32.130 MILLION OZ.+
NEW STANDING ADVANCES T0: 32.130 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 80.907 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 140.287/315.149 million: 44.44
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAY 18 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 15 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $118.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 14 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 13 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 12 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.515 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.995 TONNES
MAY 8 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.283 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.480TONNES
MAY 7 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.853 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.197TONNES
MAY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $124.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.718 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.05TONNES
MAY 5 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 4 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $106.65 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
APRIL 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.142 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.195 TONNES
APRIL 29/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $45.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $85.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 27/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.91 TONNES
APRIL 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP 26.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 11.90TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.783 TONNES
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1033.995 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
MAY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $7.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.9000 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3,79: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.448 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.524 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $3,62: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.086 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.087 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.990 MILLION OZ
MAY 11 WITH SILVER UP $5.10: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.995 MILLION OZ OF SILVER PUT OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.814 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.689 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.809 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.26: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $3.75: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.724 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.21: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.05: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP $2.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.905 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.338 MILLION OZ
APRIL 30 WITH SILVER UP $2.03: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.991 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.243MILLION OZ
APRIL 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.95: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.39: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 24 WITH SILVER UP 0.92: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,23MILLION OZ
APRIL 23WITH SILVER DOWN $2.35: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.489 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488,773MILLION OZ
APRIL 22 WITH SILVER UP 1.43: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262MILLION OZ
aPRIL 21 WITH SILVER DOWN 3.71: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17 WITH SILVER UP $3.09: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.900 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.132 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.477 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.579 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 489.424 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Stock crash looms
You will almost never see reported what actually drives market bubbles — credit directed at financial assets. Credit which will now be unwound. Physical gold is the only safe haven.
| Alasdair MacleodMay 17∙Paid |
Investors can no longer ignore the evidence
Now that bond yields are demonstrably rising into multiyear highs across all G7 government bonds, investment committees will be meeting this week to assess the impact on their investment portfolios and how to derisk them.
They are in a bind, because the conventional view is to change portfolio weightings by reducing equity exposure in favour of bonds. But what do you do when both investment categories should be sold? Obviously, there must be a dash for cash. That is the likely conclusion for domestic investors. But what of their foreign investments?
Ostensibly, the reason for investing in foreign markets is to spread portfolio risk. But here again, when all G7 markets face rising bond yields, values are set to decline significantly, with the addition of currency risk. In these cases, foreign investors always repatriate their investment capital by selling foreign investments first.
The conclusion these investment committees will inevitably come to will be to sell down foreign investments in preference to their own, as the primary source of raising cash and derisking portfolios. It will be followed by adopting a more cautious stance overall, perhaps selling down more volatile equities and reducing the maturity profile of bond allocations.
All this assumes that markets were fairly valued before Hormuz. But as the chart below shows, this is far from the case:
By inverting the yield on the long bond, we can demonstrate the close negative relationship which exists between the S&P and the long bond’s yield. When it strays, it always returns. The artificial collapse in the yield brought about by central bank yield suppression at the zero bound during covid was an obvious aberration. But the current overvaluation of the S&P has no such excuse. Not only is the S&P demonstrably in a far larger bubble relative to bonds than during the dotcom bubble (arrowed —year 2000) but now bond yields are rising even further driven by fear of inflation.
The unwinding of today’s bubble will be catastrophic for investors. Not only will the dash for cash be considerable and sudden, but foreign investors in US stocks stand to lose their shirts. According to US Treasury TIC figures, they own over $22 trillion of equities and about the same again in other financial investments including deposits in the Americal banks. There’s no doubt that this equity bubble bursting will be among the most spectacular ever seen, and foreign investors in US stocks are horribly exposed.
Now we need to address the role of credit. US investors slake their greed by leveraging their bullish bets, reflected in the increase in margin debt which since the financial crisis in 2008-2009 has increased from less than $300bn to over $1.3 trillion.
This is not the only stock leverage, because the larger speculators, hedge funds for example, go directly to the banks and are not recorded in FINRA’s estimates. Clearly, overvaluation of stocks has fuelled by credit expansion, the unwinding of which will be an added factor driving investment values downwards. Banks will be calling in margin loans and selling down collateral to protect their positions.
It adds up to a spectacular market crash in US stock markets, echoed throughout G7 financial markets.
When sentiment turns from severe overvaluation, not only is it usually unexpectedly sudden but extreme greed clearly indicated in the charts above rapidly changes to fear. The next chart has been ignored during the equity bubble, but will now be taken seriously:
The long bond’s yield is just breaking out on the upside, and the next stop is probably around the 10% level. But that is unlikely to halt the rise as fear of price inflation, fear of an economic slump, and fear of the US debt trap all contribute to an escalating dollar risk assessment.
The dollar is bound to take a hit within the G7 currencies because of record foreign ownership of dollar financial investments, while US investors own very little in the way of foreign investments in their portfolios, and almost all that is in the form of ADRs, which don’t involve currency when sold. It is very bad news for the dollar.
This will drive the dollar-gold relationship in the coming crash. Investors’ exposure to gold is minimal, and most of that is in stocks, with ETFs being about 0.2% of the total $160 trillion value of North American portfolios. While it is true that US investors generally ignore gold and will not understand that it as the ultimate escape from collapsing credit values, we can be sure that foreigners selling down their dollar balances will appreciate the difference.
It is a set-up which looks certain to drive gold, silver, and commodity values higher in the coming weeks.
Having already lost 99.3% of its value since it was driven off the Bretton Woods gold standard, the recent acceleration in the dollar’s decline is about to get a whole lot worse.
JESSE COLUMBO\
This is a post from Jesse Colombo’s The Bubble Bubble Report—a bestselling newsletter focusing on precious metals investing and global economic risks. We specialize in detailed reports and analyses.
What’s Happening With Precious Metals & Miners
A look at where the precious metals complex stands following the recent turbulence caused by rising inflation expectations and bond yields.
| Jesse ColomboMay 16∙Paid |
After a strong start to the week, the precious metals complex — and nearly all commodities outside of energy — suffered a setback on Friday as inflation expectations and bond yields surged across the globe, largely due to the Iran war. In today’s analysis, I’ll show you where precious metals and miners stand right now and the key levels to watch going forward.
Starting with gold, we can see that it initially broke out of its channel pattern just as silver did before it, but Friday’s inflation panic caused that breakout to fail and pushed gold back into the channel:
As I explained on Monday, although gold broke out of its channel, I also wanted to see it surpass two additional major hurdles that were even more important: the $4,800 to $5,000 resistance zone and the $5,400 to $5,600 resistance zone.
Breakouts above horizontal resistance levels and zones are typically more reliable than breakouts above diagonal trendlines such as the top of the channel, so I wanted to see those zones cleared for added confirmation.
After breaking out of the channel pattern, gold ran into resistance at the bottom of the $4,800 to $5,000 zone and then proceeded to fall back into the channel.
To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).
Now that gold has fallen back into its channel, the next level I’m watching is the $4,500 support level that formed at the lows in late April and early May. In addition, key support and resistance levels in COMEX gold futures often form around $100 increments for psychological reasons and because those are major option strike prices where significant open interest typically congregates.
Ideally, I would like to see gold rebound off the $4,500 support level and make another attempt to rally from there, but if that support fails to hold, it would increase the probability of further short-term downside and I would take a more defensive stance when short-term trading (rather than holding bullion for the long run).
Next, let’s take a look at silver. Last Friday and into early this past week, it staged a strong breakout from its triangle pattern, but like most commodities, it sank lower on Thursday and Friday amid growing concerns about inflation and rising bond yields across the globe.
Despite the pullback, silver’s breakout from the triangle pattern remains valid and there is a chance this is simply a re-test of the breakout. Ideally, I would like to see silver stabilize and rebound from here.
If silver were to fall back into its triangle pattern, resulting in a failed breakout, the next level I would watch is the $70 support zone that formed near the lows of late April and early May. In addition, key support and resistance levels in silver often form around $10 increments such as $60, $70, and $80 because they carry heavy psychological significance and are also major option strike prices where the most open interest typically congregates.
If that support fails to hold, it would increase the odds of further short-term downside and I would take a more defensive stance when short-term trading (rather than holding bullion for the long run).
Next, let’s look at copper, which I pay close attention to because of its strong influence on the price of silver. As I explained on Wednesday, copper recently closed above the key $6 to $6.50 resistance zone that had acted as a ceiling for much of the past year, and that bullish action helped create a tailwind for silver before the pullback on Thursday and Friday.
Despite the pullback, copper’s breakout above the resistance zone has not been completely negated and there is a chance this is simply a re-test of the breakout. Ideally, I would like to see copper stabilize and rally back above the resistance zone..
Next, let’s look at gold miners using the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as a proxy. As I showed on Monday, there are two important hurdles I’m closely monitoring in GDX: the $100 to $104 resistance zone and the $112 to $116 resistance zone, as they will help determine whether the next leg of the bull market in gold mining stocks has begun.
Despite the recent rebound in gold miners, GDX has not yet cleared the $100 to $104 resistance zone and fell back on Thursday and Friday in sympathy with gold itself. For now, I’m maintaining a cautious short-term stance on gold miners until GDX can break through its critical resistance zones overhead, though I remain very bullish on them over the intermediate and longer term, as I explained in this report.
Silver miners, which I track using the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) as a proxy, show a similar setup to gold miners, with the $100 to $105 and $115 to $120 resistance zones being key levels to watch.
Despite its rebound in early May, SIL has not yet cleared the $100 to $105 resistance zone overhead and has since pulled back from that zone. For now, I’m maintaining a cautious short-term stance on silver miners until SIL can break through its critical resistance zones overhead, though I remain very bullish on them over the intermediate and longer term, as I explained in this report.
Now let’s discuss what led to the pullback in precious metals and commodities in general outside of energy. Put simply, the sharp rise in energy costs caused by the Iran war is rapidly driving up inflation expectations around the world, which in turn is causing bond yields to surge as bonds sell off.
Bond prices move inversely to bond yields, and the prospect of higher inflation is pushing bond prices lower as investors factor in the erosion of their fixed interest payments. Higher bond yields, in turn, place downward pressure on precious metals and commodities, which do not generate yield.
As the chart below shows, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries surged over the past week, particularly on Friday, and are now at their highest level in a year. In addition, rising yields are occurring across the yield curve, including in 30-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasuries.
Also, this is not just a U.S. phenomenon, as it is occurring across much of the world, including the UK, Germany, Canada, Australia, India, and Japan, as higher energy costs continue to fuel inflation pressures.
One way to track rising U.S. inflation expectations is through the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, shown in the chart below, which is a market-based measure of expected inflation over the next decade. It is calculated by comparing the yield on a standard 10-year U.S. Treasury bond with the yield on a 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS).
In particular, what sparked the latest wave of inflation fears this week was the hot U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed that the index rose 0.6% month over month in April, pushing headline inflation up to 3.8% year over year, its hottest reading since May 2023.
In addition, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by a massive 1.4% month over month in April versus expectations of just 0.5%, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2022. That pushed producer inflation up to a hefty 6.0% year over year versus expectations of 4.8%, making it the hottest annual Producer Price Index reading since December 2022.
While I highlighted the latest U.S. inflation data and inflation expectations, the same phenomenon is occurring across the globe due to rising energy prices and in many cases is even more severe than in the United States.
Countries such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, and members of the European Union are major net energy importers, unlike the U.S., which has become a net energy exporter over the past two decades, as I explained in this report.
To wrap up, the Iran war, which is now approaching its third month, continues to roil the financial markets as investors react sharply to each new war-related headline. Inflation is now beginning to show up in the latest economic data, unsettling bond investors and setting off a chain reaction across the markets, including in precious metals and commodities, which are highly sensitive to interest rates and bond yields.
For the reasons discussed throughout this report, I am maintaining a cautious short-term stance on precious metals and miners until they can stabilize and break back above the key levels I highlighted. That said, despite the recent turbulence, precious metals and miners remain in the early stages of a secular bull market that I see lasting at least a decade.
As someone with much of my net worth and income tied to precious metals, I certainly do not rejoice over frustrating days like we experienced on Friday. At the same time, I remain steadfast in my conviction that there is no better investment I would rather own in these times — not cash, which is constantly being inflated away, nor stocks or real estate, which are in massive and unsustainable bubbles, nor cryptocurrencies, which are fundamentally flimsy and plagued by numerous flaws, and certainly not bonds, where you are lending to heavily indebted governments and corporations. For me, precious metals are a TINA situation: There Is No Alternative.
As always, I’ll keep you posted on what I am seeing.
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 272 and 271
Ted Oakley//272
MUST VIEW…
5. COMMODITY REPORT/GOLD
Bullion Bank: CBs Now Buying OTC Gold Under Radar
by VBL
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 6:51
Central Bank Gold Buying Stronger Than Official Data Suggests
Authored by GoldFix
One could say the Goldman Sachs report describes central banks increasingly buying gold “under the radar,” as sovereign purchases appear to be disappearing from traditional UK trade statistics even while London vault outflows continue rising. The bank’s revised methodology effectively argues that official-sector demand remains stronger than publicly visible data had suggested.
Goldman Sachs in a special weekend note1 believes central bank gold demand has remained materially stronger than previously estimated, even as publicly visible purchase data appeared to slow over the past year. In a precious metals note, Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven revised the bank’s proprietary central bank nowcast higher after identifying what they describe as “missing sovereign flows” in London gold trade data.
The bank’s updated 12-month moving average estimate for central bank purchases now stands at 50 tonnes per month in March, versus just 29 tonnes under the prior model. Goldman also reiterated its $5,400 per ounce end-2026 gold target, arguing that underlying reserve diversification demand remains intact despite short-term volatility risks.
“Recent geopolitical developments are likely to reinforce diversification over time — both for central banks and private investors.”
The report centers on London’s role in the global gold market. Because London OTC is the primary venue where sovereign entities transact in large size, Goldman attempts to infer central bank purchases using UK customs and vault-flow data. Since the UK produces virtually no deliverable gold domestically, imported gold must either remain in London vaults or leave the country through exports.
Historically, UK net exports closely tracked observable London vault outflows, which suggested sovereign gold transactions were still effectively appearing in customs statistics despite international guidance recommending sovereign gold remain excluded from trade reporting.
That relationship broke down beginning in August 2025.
Goldman now observes that London vault inventories continue declining while official UK export data no longer fully reflects those outflows. According to the bank, the discrepancy likely represents sovereign gold movements increasingly disappearing from trade statistics altogether. Somebody is getting gold delivered more than we know.
“This suggests that some portion of sovereign transactions is no longer being recorded.”
Continues here
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.09%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 287.55 PTS OR 1.11%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 642.29 PTS OR 1.08%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.71%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.8003
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.8053 Oil UP TO 106.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 110.62 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP (6.8003) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.8053 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONG/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.8003
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.8033
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 287..55 PTS OR 1.11%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 662.29 PTS OR 1.08%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 106.42
BRENT; 110.62
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.16/// EURO RISES TO 1.1630 UP 8 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.746 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 158.93… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.099 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.8003 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.8053
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.1788// Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.977// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.614%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.903%
3j Gold at $4536.30 //Silver at: 75.75 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 33/ 100 roubles/72.52
3m oil (WTI) into the 106 dollar handle for WTI and 110 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 158.93 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.746% UP 3 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.099 UP 2 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7859 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9140
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.606 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.133 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.088 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.58 UP 3 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.155 DOWN 2 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.822 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.693 UP 12 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.351 UP 12 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Slide After Bond Yields, Oil Prices Jump Around The Globe
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 07:42 AM
Futures are lower, but off their overnight lows as markets focus on soaring global yields after US/Iran talk progress remains stalled (but at least armed hostilities did not resume contrary to some speculation). Yields also spiked on rising oil prices, concerns of an extra budget in Japan and continued political chaos in the UK. As of 7:00am ET, S&P futures are -0.5%, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.3%; semis are bid, Mag7 are mostly lower ex-NVDA which reports earnings this week. Semis / AI are the bullish story pre-mkt with most names flat to down with the market expressing a slight preference for Defensives over Cyclicals. In other news, US-China will set up a trade/investment board, and China will increase Ag purchases from the US. Bond yields are flat to +1bp with the 10Y at 4.60% after last week’s meltup;Japan’s 30-year yield surged as much as 20 basis points before paring most of the move on what may have been another round of BOJ intervention. Treasuries and European bonds were little changed, while the dollar was set to snap a five-day run of wins as it reverses overnight gains. In commodities, Energy is leading but crude prices have cut their gains: Brent trades around $11 after Trump warned that the “clock is ticking” for Iran to reach a deal that will end the war. Metals are weaker and Ags are bid. Today’s macro data focus is on TIC, housing price index, and NY Fed activity indicator.
In premarket trading, Nvidia is the only Mag 7 member rising: the $6 trillion semiconductor giant is slated to report first quarter results on Wednesday (Nvidia +0.8%, Alphabet -0.6%, Microsoft -0.6%, Apple -0.8%, Meta -0.9%, Amazon -1%, Tesla -1.1%)
- Shares in UnitedHealth (UNH) fall 5.3% after Berkshire Hathaway exited its stake in the health insurer. The conglomerate also disclosed that it amassed a $2.6 billion stake in Delta Air Lines (DAL), boosting the carrier’s shares by 2.4%.
- EchoStar (SATS), Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) rise as billionaire Elon Musk said he’s back in Texas working on plans for an initial public offering of SpaceX.
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) falls 10% after the drugmaker’s phase 3 data for fianlimab in metastatic melanoma fell short of expectations. Citi downgraded its rating on the stock following the “disappointing” trial update.
The standoff in the Middle East shows no signs of easing after more than two months, puncturing an AI-driven rally that has pushed global stocks to record highs. Over the weekend, Trump said the “clock is ticking” for Iran to reach a deal, while G7 finance chiefs’ two-day meeting in Paris starts today, focusing on mounting imbalances and rare earths. Meanwhile, bond yields have climbed to levels seen decades ago on fears that central banks will lift interest rates and governments will ramp up borrowing to cushion the blow from rising energy prices. Japan’s 30-year yield surged as much as 20 basis points before paring most of the move.
“Bonds were more nervous about the inflation picture and the equity market was comforted and encouraged by the very strong earnings and AI-led optimism,” said Willem Sels, global chief investment officer at HSBC Private Bank. “What you now have is a bit of a catch-up movement in the equity market, a bit of an exhaustion of the momentum.”
As a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran extends past 40 days and a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive, President Donald Trump expressed frustration with Tehran and told it the “clock is ticking.” Earlier, drones targeted a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates.
Elsewhere, at a time when markets expect the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh to hike rates as soon as December, minutes from last month’s meeting due for release Wednesday will give investors clues about policymakers’ thinking. “The absence of a near-term bullish catalyst can continue to pressure bonds, with spillover effects to exuberant equities,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro at Nuveen. “Signs of conflict de-escalation are likely needed to assuage jittery markets.”
Ed Yardeni wrote that the Fed needed to catch up with bond markets or risk losing control of borrowing costs. If the Fed fails to remove its easing bias, “investors will conclude that the central bank is falling behind the inflation curve and will demand a higher inflation risk premium,” Yardeni wrote. “We expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at the June meeting and shift to a tightening policy stance.”
Meanwhile, the higher yields rise, the more bullish Wall Street strategists turn. Six out of the 21 strategists polled by Bloomberg have raised their target for the S&P 500 over the past month. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson retains high conviction of an earnings recovery and broadening thesis, while noting the 10-year yield at the critical 4.50% threshold could be more of a “noticeable headwind” for equity multiples.
Bloomberg News interviewed 32 investment managers across the US, Asia and Europe who were overwhelmingly bullish, with 80% expecting equities to outperform other asset classes over the next three to six months. The top investment choice for about half of these buy-side professionals is megacap tech and AI stocks. Most investors interviewed pointed to the yield on 30-year Treasuries holding sustainably above 5% as the biggest threat to stocks. Perhaps they have been reading Michael Hartnett who has repeatedly said 5% on the 30Y is the “door to doom.”
And while the tech-fueled stock rally is looking bubble-like to some investors, timing the pop is tough. Some are turning to exotic options that better protect against an eventual slump. Single-stock volatility — especially in parts of the tech sector such as semiconductors — far outpace relatively mild increases in indexes.
In Europe, consumer and auto shares drove a 0.4% decline in the Stoxx 600, although stocks have trimmed some early declines Monday as last week’s selloff in bonds eased and energy shares outperformed. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
- Technoprobe shares rise as much as 7.7% to a record high, extending last week’s results-driven gains after an upgrade for the chip-testing equipment maker from Bank of America, which lifted its target price to a Street-high of €38
- Sonova shares rise as much as 4.4%, the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index, after the Swiss hearing-aid maker’s full-year adjusted Ebita beat the average analyst estimate
- FLSmidth gains as much as 5.3%, the most since April 8, after Nordea and Danske Bank upgraded their views on the Danish industrial equipment maker to buy from hold, with Nordea quoting a positive risk/reward profile
- Publicis shares climb as much as 5.8% on Monday after the advertising agency increased its earnings growth targets for the next two years, following a $2.2 billion deal to buy US-based data collaboration platform LiveRamp
- Draegerwerk shares rise as much as 4.7%, rebounding from a four-month low, after the medical and safety equipment maker was upgraded
- Deutsche Boerse shares outperformed Monday after a regulatory filing showed Chris Hohn’s activist hedge fund TCI Fund Management has increased its voting rights in the German market operator to 5.15%
- Smart Eye rises as much as 12%, the most since November, after the Swedish eye-tracking technology company reported what DNB Carnegie called a “solid” set of results, with Ebitda showing a “clear improvement”
- Ipsen shares drop as much as 5.6%, the most since July last year, following the French biopharma company’s trial data for its experimental frown-lines treatment corabotase
- Future shares slide as much as 10% after Stifel downgrades the publisher to hold from buy, saying it will take time for the firm to find new ways to monetize its content, as new AI tools threaten the search market
- Alleima falls as much as 7.5%, the most since January, after Swedish business daily Dagens Industri recommended in a column that readers sell shares in the specialty steels group, flagging a weakening order book and rising short interest
- Advanced Medical Solutions shares drop as much as 24%, the most since September 2023, after TA Associates confirmed late on Friday that it won’t make an offer for the London-listed firm
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a second session, as stalled progress on ending the Iran war and higher oil prices intensified concerns about inflation and economic growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.4%, before paring losses. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Toyota Motor Corp. and Mitsubishi Corp. were among the biggest contributors to the losses. Benchmarks in Indonesia, Hong Kong and Australia all fell over 1%. Bucking the trend, South Korean stocks reversed losses of as much as 4.7%, as optimism over progress in Samsung Electronics Co.’s labor talks helped offset pressure from rising bond yields. Behind the global debt selloff and stock market weakness was a third consecutive day of oil price gains, after President Donald Trump renewed pressure on Iran to resolve the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Following the recent rally driven by optimism about artificial intelligence, equities investors are now shifting their attention back to the risk of worsening inflation. Separately, Chinese shares fell after data showed the country’s economic growth slowed across the board in April.
In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%, while the pound takes top spot among G-10 currencies, rising 0.4% against the greenback. The yen is lagging.
In rates, treasuries erased an earlier drop, leaving US 10-year yields flat at 4.60%. US yields are cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with spreads trading broadly within a basis point of Friday close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.6% with gilts outperforming by around 3bp in the sector. Bunds are steady, while gilts are outperforming, with UK 10-year yields down 3 bps to 5.14% as UK gilts steadied after last week’s sharp selloff. During Asia session, Japan’s 30-year yield surged as much as 20 basis points before paring most of the move as inflation fears continue to ripple through global bond market. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of names. Estimates from dealers for this week point to about $40 billion in bond sales. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening (Thursday)/
In commodities, Brent crude futures pulled back from their overnight highs to trade around $110 a barrel, helping arrest a selloff in global government bonds.
Economic data slate includes May New York Fed services business activity (8:30am), May NAHB housing market index (10am) and March TIC flows (4pm). Fed speaker slate empty for the session
1b European opening report
Brent pulls back from $112/bbl as Trump warns Iran, USTs hit fresh contract low, Equites lower – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 06:07 AM
- US President Trump warned that the clock is ticking for Iran, though he declined to give a specific deadline. Situation room meeting due Tuesday.
- Pakistan shared a revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night, according to Pakistani sources.
- European bourses broadly in the red, but off lows as reports tout a sharing of US-Iran proposals.
- DXY reverses earlier gains, GBP helped by technicals & JPY lags on budget fears.
- Fixed income benchmarks rebound, in synchrony with energy downside.
- Crude futures lifted following punchy Trump rhetoric, gold/silver supported by tighter Indian import restrictions.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NAHB Housing Market Index (May), Canadian Victoria Day holiday, Supply from the EU.
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump warned on Truth Social that the clock is ticking for Iran and that they better get moving fast, or there won’t be anything left for them, and that time is of the essence.
- US President Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
- Pakistan shared revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night, according to Pakistani sources. The course added that “we don’t have much time”, adding that both countries “keep changing their goalposts”.
- Western sources say the new Iranian proposal includes a commitment of unclear value not to produce nuclear weapons but no mention of uranium or Hormuz, according to Journalist Segal.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. The spokesperson added that they have made great efforts for safe movement and protection of the Strait of Hormuz and are in constant contact with Oman to develop a mechanism. On Uranium, Baghaei said Tehran does not need any party to recognize its right to uranium enrichment and will not discuss during negotiations with the US.
- Iranian Defence Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik warned of a regretful response to enemies and said that Iranian armed forces are fully prepared to confront any potential attack by the US and Israeli regime, according to IRNA.
- Iranian Major General Rezaei said Iran is serious about diplomacy and negotiations, but is more serious about dealing with the aggressor, while he added that the US must now prove its good intentions and that Iranian armed forces are on the trigger as diplomatic efforts continue.
- Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz would flow again once its conflict with the US and Israel is over, although the sides remain far from resolving their differences, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, three cargo-empty, US-sanctioned tankers reportedly slipped through the US naval blockade in recent days, according to TankerTrackers.com.
- Israel said it carried out a Gaza strike targeting the de facto head of Hamas’s armed wing, while Israel also conducted an airstrike on the towns of Froun, Kfar Hounah and Zawtar al-Sharqiya in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, an Israeli air strike targeted Baalbek, Lebanon and killed an Islamic Jihad commander and his daughter.
- UAE officials said a drone attack set off a fire near the UAE’s nuclear power station, while it was still investigating the source of the attack.
- Saudi Defence Ministry said it intercepted three drones launched from Iraq after entering the kingdom’s airspace.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened entirely in the red this morning, given the lack of US-Iran progress, and further punchy rhetoric from President Trump. Over the weekend, he stated that the clock is ticking for Iran, though he declined to give a specific deadline. Since then, bourses have clambered off lows amidst positive geopolitical updates; notably, Iran’s Baghaei suggesting that talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. Moreover, Pakistani sources suggested that Pakistan shared a revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night.
- European sectors opened with a clear negative bias, but this picture is now a little more mixed. Energy takes pole position, benefiting from higher underlying crude prices; Media and Utilities complete the top three. At the bottom of the pile reside cyclical sectors, such as Autos and Travel & Leisure. The latter has been pressured by post-earning losses in Ryanair after reporting in-line metrics, but warned that flat fares may put pressure on profits.
- US equity futures (ES -0.3% NQ -0.1% RTY -0.3%) are entirely in the red, albeit modestly so. In terms of key stories this morning, Samsung Electronics (+4% in Korean trade) moved higher after reporting that Samsung and the union held talks to avert a strike; elsewhere, a South Korean court granted the company an injunction that could limit the scope of the planned strike. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that Tesla (-0.8% pre-market) raised US prices for its Model Y car, but did not provide a reason.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- FX shows a risk-on bias with high-beta outperforming and DXY in the red.
- DXY firmed at the Asia reopen and rose to a 99.40 peak as participants digested US President Trump’s remarks over the weekend, “the clock is ticking for Iran.” However, with Brent crude falling from its USD 112/bbl peak (curr. 110/bbl), the index now trades modestly in the red, a touch above 99.00 where its 50 DMA lies. Nothing notable scheduled today, though the rest of the week sees weekly ADP jobs on Tuesday, FOMC Minutes + NVIDIA earnings Wednesday, Jobless Claims and PMIs Thursday and UoM on Friday.
- GBP is one of the best G10 performers, likely a factor of technical factors than political reprieve with newsflow light heading into the likely June 18th by-election. EUR/GBP reversed from 0.8730, and Cable bounced from 1.33. On domestic politics, PM potential candidates Streeting and Burnham were on the wires talking up the importance of rejoining the EU. On the Fiscal/Consumer front, the Times reported Chancellor Reeves has plans to retain the cut on fuel duty from September amid fuel price concerns, while separately drawing up plans for a targeted intervention on energy bills – both potentially factors helping the Pound today. The week ahead sees Jobs on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and PSNB on Friday, the former which ING says is expected to be mild because of base effects.
- JPY is the only G10 currency that trades lower against the buck amid: a) a weak 5yr JGB auction, b) reports that the Japanese government is to start compiling a supplementary budget, c) lack of Iran progress, and d) surging energy prices. (See Fixed Income 09:35 BST for more). USD/JPY +0.1%, up a touch despite earlier gains which were capped by the 159 mark.
FIXED INCOME
- A bearish start to the week as US President Trump’s escalatory language on Iran and the associated energy move, with Brent peaking at USD 112/bbl overnight.
- Amidst this, fixed benchmarks spent the APAC session in the red. Note, JGBs derived pressure from this alongside a weak 5yr outing and reports around the compiling of a supplementary Japanese budget, see 09:35 BST for more details.
- USTs hit a 108-30 trough, a fresh contract low, in the early hours. Since, and particularly after remarks from the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, energy benchmarks have eased off, which has allowed fixed to lift, taking USTs to a 109-08 high with gains of one tick on the session. Today’s US docket is quiet, but the week is busy with Nvidia due before the FOMC Minutes and a 20yr auction. From the Minutes, the last with Powell as Chair, BofA expects the account to “reinforce the Fed’s recent hawkish tone”, showing that Warsh will inherit a Fed with “little appetite to cut”.
- Bunds in-fitting with the above, hit a 123.74 base, which is also a new contract low. Given the discussed energy moves, the benchmark has pared much of its 53 ticks of downside and is now lower by a more modest c. 15 ticks, just off a 124.20 peak. Newsflow has been relatively limited, we had remarks from but no move to ECB’s Lagarde, who essentially noted that she is watching the yield space. On yields, the German 10yr hit a 3.19% peak overnight, a new high for the year and the highest since 2011’s 3.49% best. Furthermore, the energy moves continue to be reflected in near-term policy expectations, with 21bps of ECB tightening implied for June and 75bps by end-2026.
- Gilts opened near-enough flat, as the bearish leads from overnight had already begun to moderate, in addition to the lack of significant weekend development on the fate of PM Starmer. Furthermore, the complex is perhaps deriving some support from a revival of coverage that contenders Burnham and Streeting would like to rejoin the EU at some point; albeit, Burnham did somewhat distance himself from this over the weekend, concerning the upcoming by-election campaigning at least. As it stands, Gilts are holding at highs of 85.53 with gains of c. 25 ticks. A bounce from the 84.96 base this morning, another contract low.
- Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.22x (prev. 3.58x), average yield 2.024% (prev. 1.826%), Lowest accepted price 99.85 (prev. 99.84), Weighted average price 99.89 (prev. 99.88), Tail in price 0.05 (prev. 0.04).
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures surged at the start of Asia-Pac trade, with WTI making a new contract high of USD 104.37/bbl while Brent peaked at USD 112.00/bbl. Punchy rhetoric over the weekend by US President Trump, warning Iran that the “clock is ticking” and that “they better get moving, fast, or there won’t be anything left of them” initially spurred the upside in energy prices. However, benchmarks have pulled back as European trade gets underway, with WTI and Brent now trading at the lower end of its USD 101.59-104.37/bbl and USD 109.56-112/bbl range, respectively. More recently, according to Pakistani sources, Pakistan shared a revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night.
- Spot gold briefly dipped below USD 4,500/oz amid higher energy prices as trade got underway but has since regained the handle and currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4481-4560/oz range. Jewellers in India have reported higher demand for the yellow metal, ahead of the wedding season, after Indian authorities hiked gold import tariffs and then later curbed the amount of gold that can be imported. Silver has also faced restrictions with tightening rules for imports, describing imports as now “restricted” rather than “free”. Spot silver is currently in a USD 73.71-76.76/oz range, consolidating following Friday’s selloff.
- 3M LME Copper has started Monday’s trade on the backfoot, slipping back below USD 13.5k/t and falling closer towards last week’s trough of USD 13.4k/t. China’s growth slowed in April, with investment contracting while retail sales printed essentially flat Y/Y.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- USTR Greer said President Trump will be presented with options for action on China if US investigations determine that industrial overcapacity is influencing Chinese exports.
- White House released a Fact Sheet on Sunday following last week’s Trump-Xi summit, which stated that China will purchase at least USD 17bln in US agricultural products annually for 2026, 2027 and 2028.
- EU is drawing up plans to force European companies to purchase critical components from at least three different suppliers, in an effort to lower the bloc’s reliance on China, according to FT.
- France wants Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) and Renault (RNO FP) to favour local parts suppliers to protect jobs and keep know-how in the region as Europe’s automakers deepen ties with manufacturers from China.
- China flagged that Australian beef imports are approaching the safeguard threshold and are at the 80% of the annual quota, which caps imports at current tariff rates, while additional imports would be subject to 55% tariffs on top of existing tariffs three days after shipments reach 100% of the quota.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK PM Starmer has decided not to announce a departure timetable unless and until Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, ITV’s Peston reported.
- UK Deputy PM Lammy said PM Starmer will not be announcing a timetable for departure, speaking to Sky News.
- UK PM Starmer was reportedly mulling whether he would bring more government stability by announcing a timetable for his departure and a leadership election, according to ITV.
- Former UK Health Secretary Streeting vowed to stand in any Labour Party leadership contest to oust UK PM Starmer. In relevant news, Streeting said he would battle Manchester Mayor Burnham for the Labour leadership and called for the UK to rejoin the EU, while Burnham played down rejoining the EU.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly to lay out more details in the week ahead regarding proposals to ease bank regulations that were imposed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 GFC.
- Fitch affirmed Germany’s sovereign rating at AAA; Outlook Stable, while DBRS maintained Portugal at A (high), Outlook Raised to Positive.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- UK Rightmove House Prices MM (May) 1.2% (Prev. 0.8%).
- UK Rightmove House Prices YY (May) -0.3% (Prev. -0.9%).
- Swiss GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q1) Q/Q 0.5% (Prev. 0.2%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- BoE’s Greene said some of the global economic resilience to the Iran war is due to inventories while second round effects of the energy price shock will not show up for another year. Should not be looking through negative supply shocks.
- BoE’s Breeden said the central bank should not be ‘trigger happy’ on rates, while she warned of a hit to business from political uncertainty, according to FT.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump told Fortune he thinks US could sell Intel (INTC) shares slowly over time without tanking the stock market. He added that “Intel should be the biggest company in the world right now… If I had been president when all these companies started sending their chips in from China, I would have put a tariff on that would have protected Intel.”
- Over 60 allies of US President Trump have urged him to test and approve the most powerful AI models before its released, Axios reported citing sources.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine upped the pressure on Russia with the biggest strike on Moscow in over a year involving dozens of drones on Sunday, according to WSJ.
- Russian drones hit Odessa and damaged residential homes, according to Interfax.
- Ukrainian manufacturers and officials warned the EU’s plan to slash steel imports would hurt Ukraine.
OTHER
- Intelligence claimed that Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the US base at Guantanamo Bay, US military vessels and possibly Key West, Florida, according to Axios, which added that the intelligence could become a pretext for US military action and shows the degree to which the Trump administration sees Cuba as a threat.
- Taiwan’s President Lai said on Sunday that Taiwan will never be sacrificed or traded, after US President Trump recently described a planned USD 14bln arms sale to Taipei as a bargaining chip with China.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin continued to pull back and slipped back below USD 77k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly in the red after last Friday’s losses on Wall St, and with risk sentiment sapped as oil prices and yields extended higher after US President Trump warned the clock was ticking on Iran, heading into a meeting on Tuesday with his national security team to discuss possible options for military action, while participants in the region also digest disappointing Chinese activity data.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower amid losses across nearly all sectors aside from energy, and with sentiment not helped by disappointing data from Australia’s largest trading partner.
- Nikkei 225 resumed its pullback from last week’s record highs amid higher oil prices and the anticipation of the BoJ to resume rate normalisation next month.
- KOSPI was volatile as the index initially suffered heavy losses and the Korea Exchange triggered a sidecar after KOSPI 200 futures dropped 5.0% with jitters seen as Samsung Electronics faces an 18-day strike involving nearly 45,000 of Samsung’s unionised workers starting on May 21st. The index then staged a firm rebound alongside Samsung shares after the union said it would engage in government-mediated pay talks, and a court was said to partially accept an injunction request against the union’s planned strike, although the union later announced that it would proceed with the strike as planned.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following the disappointing activity data in which Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Ex-Rural Investment all missed forecasts, with the latter showing a surprise contraction, while the stats bureau noted the external situation is complex and that China’s economic foundation still needs to be consolidated.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China State Council said it will leverage national venture capital guidance fund to increase support for entrepreneurship in tech innovation.
- Chinese MIIT Minister Li Lecheng said China should upgrade “outdated” industries, and not scrap them, because manufacturing remains the backbone of the economy.
- China’s State Administration for Market Regulation set 34 priorities for this year to support private sector growth, with a focus on fair competition, legal protections and efficient regulation.
- China’s stats bureau said the external situation is complex and China’s economic foundation still needs to be consolidated, while it added that China is to continue to optimise supply and that the domestic supply-demand imbalance remains prominent. China’s stats bureau said China will continue to expand the domestic demand and should implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. Furthermore, it said the international situation remains grim and complicated as of April, and the world economic recovery is facing greater headwinds, as well as stated that the will and capacity of people to spend needs improving.
- Japan is likely to issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to soften the blow from the Middle East conflict, according to sources cited by Reuters. A separate report confirmed that Japanese PM Takaichi was set to announce an extra Japan budget. However, conflicting comments by Japanese Finance Minister Katayama followed, stating that they are not yet at a stage to talk about the specifics of an extra budget.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said they are watching market moves with a high sense of urgency, including long-term rates. No comment on FX intervention.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese Industrial Production YoY (Apr) Y/Y 4.1% (Prev. 5.7%).
- Chinese Retail Sales YoY (Apr) Y/Y 0.2% vs Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 1.7%).
- Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY (Apr) Y/Y -1.6% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%).
- Chinese House Price Index MoM (Apr) M/M -0.1% (Prev. -0.2%).
- Chinese House Price Index YoY (Apr) Y/Y -3.5% (Prev. -3.4%).
1 c) Asian opening report
Brent tops $112/bbl, USD bid and stocks hit as Trump says the “clock is ticking for Iran” – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 02:25 AM
- US President Trump warned that the clock is ticking for Iran, though he declined to give a specific deadline. Situation room meeting due Tuesday.
- Crude bid on the US’ escalatory rhetoric, lifting yields and weighing on equities and metals; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%.
- APAC stocks in the red, KOSPI activated the sidecar, China was hit by disappointing activity data.
- DXY found some modest strength from the above points, GBP/USD testing 1.33 to the downside, USD/JPY tested 159.00 to the upside.
- Brent hit USD 112/bbl following Trump’s warning, spot gold hit by the elevated yield environment but has lifted off worst.
- Looking ahead, highlights include the Canadian Victoria Day holiday, speakers including BoE’s Greene & Mann, Supply from the EU, and Earnings from Baidu & Ryanair.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump warned on Truth Social that the clock is ticking for Iran and that they better get moving fast, or there won’t be anything left for them, and that time is of the essence.
- US President Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
- US President Trump posted a generated image of a drone striking boats with Iranian flags and the caption BYE BYE, “Fast Boats”, while he also posted an image of ships in the US with the caption “Empty Oil Tankers are SAILING to the US to LOAD UP on OIL!”
- Iranian Defence Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik warned of a regretful response to enemies and said that Iranian armed forces are fully prepared to confront any potential attack by the US and Israeli regime, according to IRNA.
- Iranian Major General Rezaei said Iran is serious about diplomacy and negotiations, but is more serious about dealing with the aggressor, while he added that the US must now prove its good intentions and that Iranian armed forces are on the trigger as diplomatic efforts continue.
- Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz would flow again once its conflict with the US and Israel is over, although the sides remain far from resolving their differences, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, three cargo-empty, US-sanctioned tankers reportedly slipped through the US naval blockade in recent days, according to TankerTrackers.com.
- Israeli senior official was reported on Friday to have told Channel 12 that Tel Aviv was preparing for the possibility of an imminent resumption of war with the Islamic Republic, while the official said regarding negotiations between Tehran and Washington that “The Americans have concluded that the negotiations are not going anywhere.”
- US State Department official said on Friday that the atmosphere of the second day of talks between Lebanon and Israel was extremely positive and exceeded expectations, while the State Department announced that Israel and Lebanon’s cessation of hostilities will be extended by 45 days to enable further progress.
- Israel said it carried out a Gaza strike targeting the de facto head of Hamas’s armed wing, while Israel also conducted an airstrike on the towns of Froun, Kfar Hounah and Zawtar al-Sharqiya in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, an Israeli air strike targeted Baalbek, Lebanon and killed an Islamic Jihad commander and his daughter.
- UAE officials said a drone attack set off a fire near the UAE’s nuclear power station, while it was still investigating the source of the attack.
- Saudi Defence Ministry said it intercepted three drones launched from Iraq after entering the kingdom’s airspace.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks closed in the red on Friday with all sectors lower, aside from Energy, as Materials and Utilities lagged, while broad-based mega-cap weakness added to the losses. Energy was the only sector in the green and buoyed by gains in the crude complex amid renewed escalation risk as Trump returned from China and attention turned back to Iran. On that, little incrementally new came out of the Xi/Trump summit, and many awaited Trump’s return from China. As a reminder, source reports through the week suggested Trump was weighing up possibly resuming military action, but sources added they don’t think he would order any before he returns from China, while Israeli sources stated that readiness would be raised upon the end of Trump’s visit.
- SPX -1.24% at 7,408, NDX -1.54% at 29,125, DJI -1.07% at 49,531, RUT -2.44% at 2,793.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- USTR Greer said President Trump will be presented with options for action on China if US investigations determine that industrial overcapacity is influencing Chinese exports.
- White House released a Fact Sheet on Sunday following last week’s Trump-Xi summit, which stated that China will purchase at least USD 17bln in US agricultural products annually for 2026, 2027 and 2028.
- China’s MOFCOM said it agreed with the US to set up trade and investment bodies, while it also confirmed that the US had agreed to sell aircraft, aircraft engines and components to China, according to WSJ.
- China’s MOFCOM pushed back against the EU’s use of its Foreign Subsidies Regulation, which followed criticism by its justice ministry that related cross-border probes constituted “improper extraterritorial jurisdiction”.
- EU is drawing up plans to force European companies to purchase critical components from at least three different suppliers, in an effort to lower the bloc’s reliance on China, according to FT.
- France wants Stellantis (STLA IM) and Renault (RNO FP) to favour local parts suppliers to protect jobs and keep know-how in the region as Europe’s automakers deepen ties with manufacturers from China.
- China flagged that Australian beef imports are approaching the safeguard threshold and are at the 80% of the annual quota, which caps imports at current tariff rates, while additional imports would be subject to 55% tariffs on top of existing tariffs three days after shipments reach 100% of the quota.
- UK is reportedly close to a trade agreement with Gulf Council states, according to FT.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed named Jerome Powell as the temporary chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on Friday until his successor, Kevin Warsh, is sworn in.
- Federal funding for President Trump’s planned ballroom hit a procedural roadblock at the Senate on Saturday.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly in the red after last Friday’s losses on Wall St, and with risk sentiment sapped as oil prices and yields extended higher after US President Trump warned the clock was ticking on Iran, heading into a meeting on Tuesday with his national security team to discuss possible options for military action, while participants in the region also digest disappointing Chinese activity data.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower amid losses across nearly all sectors aside from energy, and with sentiment not helped by disappointing data from Australia’s largest trading partner.
- Nikkei 225 resumed its pullback from last week’s record highs amid higher oil prices and the anticipation of the BoJ to resume rate normalisation next month.
- KOSPI was volatile as the index initially suffered heavy losses and the Korea Exchange triggered a sidecar after KOSPI 200 futures dropped 5.0% with jitters seen as Samsung Electronics faces an 18-day strike involving nearly 45,000 of Samsung’s unionised workers starting on May 21st. The index then staged a firm rebound alongside Samsung shares after the union said it would engage in government-mediated pay talks, and a court was said to partially accept an injunction request against the union’s planned strike, although the union later announced that it would proceed with the strike as planned.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following the disappointing activity data in which Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Assets Ex-Rural Investment all missed forecasts, with the latter showing a surprise contraction, while the stats bureau noted the external situation is complex and that China’s economic foundation still needs to be consolidated.
- US equity futures trickled lower amid concerns of a potential resumption of military action against Iran.
- European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.8% on Friday.
FX
- DXY marginally gained amid the negative mood in Asia-Pac, as well as the upside in oil and yields, while there was little in the way of major fresh catalysts outside of geopolitics for the US. Nonetheless, the White House released a Fact Sheet regarding last week’s Trump-Xi summit, which stated that China will purchase at least USD 17bln in US agricultural products annually through to 2028, and it was reported on Friday that the Fed named Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor, Warsh, is sworn in.
- EUR/USD languished firmly beneath the 1.1700 handle following last week’s retreat and with very light newsflow from the bloc to spur the single currency, while China’s MOFCOM also pushed back against the EU’s use of its Foreign Subsidies Regulation.
- GBP/USD tested 1.3300 to the downside as the UK political landscape remains in limbo with PM Starmer reportedly mulling whether he would bring more government stability by announcing a timetable for his departure and a leadership election, while former Health Secretary Streeting said he would battle Manchester City Mayor Burnham for the leadership and called for the UK to rejoin the EU, while Burnham played down rejoining the EU.
- USD/JPY tested the 159.00 level to the upside as the Japanese currency faced headwinds from higher oil prices and anticipation that the government will issue more debt for an additional budget to soften the blow from the Middle East conflict.
- Antipodeans remained lacklustre after last week’s declines, and with price action also constrained by the disappointing Chinese activity data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8435 vs exp. 6.8086 (prev. 6.8415).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were subdued as the upside in oil prices further added to the ongoing inflationary concerns.
- Bund futures continued its slide at sub-124.00 territory amid energy-related headwinds and looming EU supply.
- 10yr JGB futures declined in early trade as yields climbed with the 10yr yield at its highest in around 3 decades amid BoJ June rate hike expectations and with Japanese PM Takaichi set to announce an extra budget, which sources noted would likely be funded by fresh debt. However, futures then gradually nursed losses and are well off today’s worst levels despite the mixed results from a 5yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures resumed their recent rally with Brent briefly touching USD 112/bbl following a warning by US President Trump that the clock is ticking on Iran, while he is set to hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action. In addition, a report noted that the energy crisis is said to enter a new phase as the peak summer season draws closer, while the US allowed a Russian oil sales waiver to expire, despite the ongoing supply concerns caused by the Middle East conflict.
- US allowed a Russia oil sales waiver to expire, despite concerns regarding global oil supplies and higher energy costs amid the Iran conflict.
- Iran energy crisis is said to enter a new phase as the peak summer season draws closer, according to FT.
- European airlines and oil refiners are more confident Europe can avoid jet fuel shortages this summer after plants maximised output, boosted imports, and governments tapped strategic reserves, according to FT.
- Venezuela circulated a draft of regulations as part of its oil law rules for companies seeking to invest in the country’s oil production.
- Spot gold initially retreated and briefly dipped beneath the USD 4,500/oz level amid higher yields and a firmer dollar, but then gradually recouped all of the earlier losses and returned to flat territory.
- India tightened silver import regulations amid efforts to defend the domestic currency, in which the government notified that the import of silver bars was now “restricted” instead of “free”.
- Copper futures extended on last Friday’s downturn with demand sapped by the mostly negative risk appetite and disappointing Chinese activity data.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was choppy overnight and oscillated around the USD 77,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin exchanged congratulatory messages at the opening of the China-Russian Expo in China’s north-eastern city of Harbin, while Putin is to visit China on May 19th-20th.
- Chinese MIIT Minister Li Lecheng said China should upgrade “outdated” industries, and not scrap them, because manufacturing remains the backbone of the economy.
- China’s State Administration for Market Regulation set 34 priorities for this year to support private sector growth, with a focus on fair competition, legal protections and efficient regulation.
- China’s stats bureau said the external situation is complex and China’s economic foundation still needs to be consolidated, while it added that China is to continue to optimise supply and that the domestic supply-demand imbalance remains prominent. China’s stats bureau said China will continue to expand the domestic demand and should implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. Furthermore, it said the international situation remains grim and complicated as of April, and the world economic recovery is facing greater headwinds, as well as stated that the will and capacity of people to spend needs improving.
- Japan is likely to issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to soften the blow from the Middle East conflict, according to sources cited by Reuters. A separate report confirmed that Japanese PM Takaichi was set to announce an extra Japan budget.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Industrial Production YoY (Apr) Y/Y 4.1% (Prev. 5.7%)
- Chinese Retail Sales YoY (Apr) Y/Y 0.2% vs Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 1.7%)
- Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY (Apr) Y/Y -1.6% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%)
- Chinese House Price Index MoM (Apr) M/M -0.1% (Prev. -0.2%)
- Chinese House Price Index YoY (Apr) Y/Y -3.5% (Prev. -3.4%)
GLOBAL NEWS
- WHO declared a global health emergency following an Ebola outbreak in Congo, which has killed about 80 people, according to WSJ.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine upped the pressure on Russia with the biggest strike on Moscow in over a year involving dozens of drones on Sunday, according to WSJ.
- Russian drones hit Odessa and damaged residential homes, according to Interfax.
- Ukrainian manufacturers and officials warned the EU’s plan to slash steel imports would hurt Ukraine.
OTHER
- Intelligence claimed that Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the US base at Guantanamo Bay, US military vessels and possibly Key West, Florida, according to Axios, which added that the intelligence could become a pretext for US military action and shows the degree to which the Trump administration sees Cuba as a threat.
- US President Trump said US and Nigerian forces killed an ISIS leader who was hiding in Africa.
- US President Trump’s advisers fear that China may target Taiwan in the next 5 years, according to Axios.
- Taiwan’s President Lai said on Sunday that Taiwan will never be sacrificed or traded, after US President Trump recently described a planned USD 14bln arms sale to Taipei as a bargaining chip with China.
- Frictions between Norway and Malaysia increased following a scrapped weapons deal, with Norway revoking export licences for a naval strike missile system.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE’s Breeden said the central bank should not be ‘trigger happy’ on rates, while she warned of a hit to business from political uncertainty, according to FT.
- UK PM Starmer was reportedly mulling whether he would bring more government stability by announcing a timetable for his departure and a leadership election, according to ITV.
- Former UK Health Secretary Streeting vowed to stand in any Labour Party leadership contest to oust UK PM Starmer. In relevant news, Streeting said he would battle Manchester Mayor Burnham for the Labour leadership and called for the UK to rejoin the EU, while Burnham played down rejoining the EU.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly to lay out more details in the week ahead regarding proposals to ease bank regulations that were imposed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 GFC. Also, The Times reports that Reeves will announce a series of measures to help the public deal with the energy shock, including scrapping the 5p fuel duty increase, at a cost of GBP 2.4bln.
- Fitch affirmed Germany’s sovereign rating at AAA; Outlook Stable, while DBRS maintained Portugal at A (high), Outlook Raised to Positive.
DATA RECAP
- UK Rightmove House Prices MM (May) 1.2% (Prev. 0.8%)
- UK Rightmove House Prices YY (May) -0.3% (Prev. -0.9%)
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
JAPAN
shortage of white ink to the the war causes this to Japan:
(zerohedge)
Japanese Company Simplifies Ketchup Packaging Amid Ink Shortage Tied To Middle East Conflict
\
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Kagome is revamping the packaging of several ketchup products after supply disruptions made white printing ink harder to source, according to Japan Today. The shortage stems from raw material constraints tied to the conflict in the Middle East.
Under the redesign, bottles of Kagome Tomato Ketchup will no longer feature the brand’s usual full white-and-red label. Instead, part of the bottle will be left clear, creating a more minimal look. Kagome said switching to a different ink is not a practical option because of technical printing limitations.
Japan Today writes that the updated packaging will be introduced gradually later this month for 500-gram, 300-gram, and 180-gram bottles.
The change reflects broader supply strain across Japan’s food industry. Earlier this week, Calbee Inc. said it would temporarily sell 14 potato chip varieties in monochrome packaging as shortages of naphtha — a petroleum-based material used in production — continue to disrupt operations.
Calbee’s affected products include popular flavors such as Lightly Salted, Consomme Punch, and Seaweed Salt. The company also said it will raise prices on 25 snack items starting Sept. 1, including potato chips and Jagarico. Chip prices are set to increase by 5% to 10%, while Jagarico products will rise by 3% to 10%.
The back-to-back announcements highlight how geopolitical tensions are rippling into everyday consumer goods, affecting everything from packaging materials to retail prices. For shoppers, the most visible impact may be simpler packaging now — and higher grocery bills later.
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
3. CHINA/
“Shockingly Bad” Chinese Econ Data Stuns Wall Street, Sparks Hard Landing Concerns
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 10:30 AM
Confirming our Sunday preview, overnight China reported growth data which slowed across the board in April with investment resuming declines, retail sales missing sales and growing at the weakest rate in 4 years while industrial production rose at the slowest pace in three years, calling into question Beijing’s reluctance to add stimulus to the economy as a global energy crisis hits factories and consumers across the world.
China’s Monday data dump of official data on Monday painted a picture of an economy where booming exports no longer offset deteriorating consumption at home, prompting analysts at banks including Nomura and SocGen to urge bolder measures in support of growth.
As shown in the chart below, fixed-asset investment unexpectedly shrank 1.6% in the first four months of 2026 from a year earlier, while industrial production grew just 4.1% last month, the weakest in almost three years. Retail sales also missed forecasts and rose just 0.2% in April, the worst reading since they contracted in December 2022, when China reopened from Covid.
What is shocking is that it is common knowledge that Beijing traditionally massages its economic data to present itself in the rosiest possible light: the fact that it allowed data this ugly would suggest that the picture on the ground is much uglier.
Goldman’s Delta One head Rich Privorotsky captured this sentiment well, writing this morning that “overnight news from China showed economic data materially below expectations. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all missed meaningfully. It’s hard to tell whether this reflects genuine demand destruction but perhaps it helps explain how the oil market has managed to balance despite ongoing supply concerns. I genuinely can’t remember a period when Chinese data, which tends to be heavily massaged, missed by anything close to this magnitude. Negative read through for consumption related categories.“
Remarkably, not a single economist surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted as pessimistic a reading for industry, retail sales and investment. The disappointing performance of the world’s second-biggest economy last month is a reminder of its domestic vulnerabilities, after a global artificial intelligence investment boom sent trade soaring.
The breadth of the acute slowdown in April has put the prospect of a more aggressive stimulus back on the agenda after China stood out in its resilience to the fallout from the Iran war. The government pulled back on fiscal spending in March, while the central bank has steered clear of even hinting at any further loosening in policy, amid ample market liquidity and weak demand for credit.
Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, described the deterioration of economic indicators as “a normal fluctuation from month to month.” But he also highlighted challenges such as a persistent imbalance between supply and demand as well as a complex global environment.
Investment plunged by around 8% in April from a year earlier, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics, returning to a similar pace of decline seen in the second half of 2025. Manufacturing and infrastructure investment both weakened, while private investment plummeted
In response to the dismal data, Nomura economists wrote that authorities “might need to step up policy support for stabilizing growth,” adding that “Beijing has no room for complacency.”
A rising number of economists has been forecasting the People’s Bank of China won’t lower interest rates this year after the oil shock pushed up inflation expectations, though many still expect a cut to lenders’ reserve requirement ratio. The PBOC last lowered the policy rate and the RRR at the peak of the trade tensions with the US a year ago.
Authorities are still likely to take a patient approach and avoid rushing out response to just one month of data. The Communist Party’s decision-making Politburo will convene in July to review economic growth and policies, making it the next potential window for any adjustment in stimulus.
“The stance still seems to be to play cautiously,” said Jing Liu, chief economist for Greater China at HSBC in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “Our base case is no extra stimulus for the economy for the time being.”
Even though many manufacturers are struggling to cope with higher raw material costs, overall exports soared as Chinese tech products found willing buyers abroad. Greater demand for green energy products is also benefiting China. But a sustained weakening of investment and consumption at home could still bring risks to Beijing’s goal of achieving 4.5% to 5% artificial growth this year.
The April data suggest gross domestic product may expand as little as 4.1% on-year in the second quarter, which could prompt incremental policy easing, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. For now, Goldman is maintaining its forecast for a GDP gain of 4.7% in April-June, compared with 5% in the first three months of the year.
The data “should keep PBOC easing – RRR and even rate cuts – firmly on the table, while fiscal top-up may come later,” SocGen’s head China economist Wei Yao wrote in a note.
The plunging manufacturing data comes at a time of continued dismal credit demand and heavy rainfall in southern China, which could be behind the sharp fall in capital spending, Goldman economist Lisheng Wang said in a note (available to pro subs here).
Statistical adjustment is another potential factor. Many economists believe authorities took measures to correct over-reporting of the data in late 2025. Such a change may have exaggerated the volatility of the figures recently, as the on-year contraction in steel and cement output narrowed in April, according to Goldman Sachs.
The consumer economy has meanwhile continued to struggle as households spent less on items as varied as autos and furniture. Car sales plunged 15% in April from a year earlier, the worst contraction since mid-2022, when the country was under Covid restrictions. The government has scaled back subsidies for electric vehicle purchases this year, while the Iran oil shock hurt sales of gasoline-powered cars.
Purchases of home appliances and furniture — products that used to be buoyed by government subsidies — declined at a double-digit pace. Gold, silver and jewelry sales plummeted 21% — a huge reversal from earlier this year and 2025, when soaring prices for precious metals led to a speculative investment frenzy.
The industrial sector is also getting more lopsided as export-driven sectors lead the growth while industries that relied on domestic sales lagged. The production of electronics, lifted by soaring global demand for AI chips, expanded 15.6% in April, the fastest pace in two years.
The auto industry also expanded briskly at 9.2%, as overseas EV sales took off. Meanwhile, commodities linked to real estate and construction — such as cement, glass and steel — recorded declines, while crude oil processing volume fell, which ING Bank economist Lynn Song attributed to the war’s impact
Soaring chip prices may partly explain why factory output weakened even as exports surged. While industrial production is reported after an adjustment made for inflation, sales abroad are calculated in nominal terms, making it hard to separate movements in prices versus volumes. Surging costs of chips and electronics accounted for about half of April’s 14% headline export growth, according to Nomura.
“China still looks like a two-speed economy: strong in strategic manufacturing and exports, but weak where household confidence matters most,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “The concern is not just that activity missed, but that the weakness is broadening across the domestic side of the economy.”
There is one silver lining when it comes to the Chinese economy: exports are expected to remain strong after climbing 15% in the first four months from a year ago. Stabilizing trade ties with the US, reinforced by President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, further bolster the outlook.
But a turnaround is nowhere in sight for domestic consumption. Chinese households net repaid the most loans in April since comparable data going back to 2010.
“Policy space remains ample,” said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International Holdings. “The April data are less a sign of deterioration than a trigger for more proactive easing — which should help anchor growth and support a gradual recovery into the second half of the year.”
4 EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
UK Moves To Ban New North Sea Oil & Gas Licenses Permanently
Saturday, May 16, 2026 – 09:20 AM
Via City AM,
- The UK government will introduce legislation banning new North Sea oil and gas exploration licences as part of its Energy Independence Bill.
- Critics argue the policy will increase Britain’s reliance on imported fossil fuels while damaging Scotland’s oil and gas industry.
- Rising oil prices and disruptions tied to the Iran conflict have intensified political pressure on Labour to reconsider the ban.
The government will make it illegal to grant new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, the King said at the state opening of Parliament, in a sign ministers are refusing to buckle in the face of a barrage of criticism that the policy is depriving the UK of billions of pounds in tax receipts without helping the environment.
As part of an Energy Independence Bill announced in the King’s Speech, the government will bake into law its pre-election pledge not to explore new oil and gas fields in a bid to “take control of our energy security”.
In its 2024 manifesto, the Labour Party made a ban on all new exploration and drilling licences in the North Sea a key pillar of its promise to turn Britain into a “clean energy superpower” by 2030.
But since entering government, the party has come under growing pressure to renege on the promise, with critics arguing it strangles one of Scotland’s most vibrant industries and fails to improve the UK’s environmental footprint.
Backlash against ‘deluded’ North Sea policy
Oil and gas still accounts for three-quarters of the UK’s energy mix. And the majority of those fossil fuels are now shipped in from abroad, meaning other economies benefit from the job creation and tax receipts that are derived from the lucrative drilling and refining processes.
Calls for the ministers to rethink the ban have grown louder since the outbreak of war in Iran led the price of crude oil to nearly double in a month.
Last week, Norway, which drills for oil in the same area of the North Sea as Britain, approved plans to reopen three gasfields that had been shut for decades to help sate the global demand for fossil fuels caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.
Two of Labour’s main political opponents – Reform UK and the Conservatives – have both vowed to overturn the ban, in a move they say would help increase the UK’s tax take and inoculate it from any acute supply shocks.
The ban, which the government claims will help Britain off the “roller-coaster of fossil fuel markets”, has also drawn criticism from the US’s ambassador to the UK, who has used multiple interviews to urge Britain to make more of its reserves.
Shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho accused her opposite number Ed Miliband of being “utterly deluded” for seeking to put the ban into the statute book.
“He is not making us more independent. He is making us more reliant on foreign imports,” she said.
END
AUSTRIA/VIENNA
41% Of Muslim Youth In Vienna Believe Their Religious Laws Take Precedence
Saturday, May 16, 2026 – 08:10 AM
A recent study conducted on behalf of the city of Vienna highlights a concerning trend among young Muslims regarding their religious and political views. This follows the recent announcement that Muslim children now comprise nearly 41 percent of the population in Vienna’s compulsory schools, making them the largest religious group.
The study, published on May 12, 2026, was led by Kenan Güngör. He classifies the results as “very worrying,” noting that religion occupies a much larger space in the lives of Muslim youth compared to their peers.
One of the most significant findings involves the hierarchy of legal and religious authority.
Forty-one percent of Muslim youth agree with the statement that their religious laws take precedence over the laws in Austria, compared to 21 percent of Christian youth, as reported in Austrian news outlet Der Standard.
Furthermore, 46 percent of Muslim respondents believe that one must be prepared to “fight and die in defense of one’s faith,” a view shared by 24 percent of Christians.
Specifically, 73 percent of Shiite and 68 percent of Sunni Muslims identify as religious, while only 41 percent of Catholic and 38 percent of Orthodox Christian youth say the same.
The study also delves into social and everyday religious expectations, showing that 36 percent of Muslim youth believe that all people should follow the rules of their religion, and more than half believe Muslim women should wear headscarves in public.
Additionally, 65 percent say Islamic regulations apply to all areas of everyday life and must be strictly observed. Regarding these figures, Güngör speaks of social pressure within these communities.
Views on governance and social equality also show a distinct divide. While 82 percent of Austrians view democracy as the best form of government, support drops to 47 percent for Syrians, 50 percent for Chechens, and 61 percent for Afghans.
Conservative gender roles are also prevalent among these groups, where almost half think men should make important decisions and a quarter do not want a woman as a boss. Only around a third consider homosexuality to be okay.
The research, which surveyed 1,200 individuals between the ages of 14 and 21 across 10 different ethnic backgrounds, indicates that a third of Muslim youth have become more religious recently. Their identity is shaped much more by religion than for Christians, manifesting in higher rates of praying, fasting, and mosque attendance.
However, the study authors state that religion alone was not the only factor. They suggest that lower education levels, authoritarian upbringing, social isolation, and the influence of radical content on the internet also play a role in shaping these perspectives.
Austria is not the only European country dealing with the troubling views seen within a worrying number of Muslims. In Germany and France, a majority of young Muslims also put their religion above the laws of the state, as two recent studies illustrate (here and here).
The contrasting belief systems have also led to tension. For example, a majority of Germans now believe that the country should generally stop taking in more Muslim immigrants.
END
UK
UK’s Telegraph Claims Attractive Young Women Are Now The New Face Of The ‘Far-Right’
Saturday, May 16, 2026 – 07:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
The Telegraph has published a piece so tone-deaf it reads like self-parody. According to the outlet, the “far-right” is no longer the domain of bald men in boots and tattoos. No, it’s now being led by “strikingly telegenic young women” who dare to look good on camera while warning about mass migration, grooming gangs, and cultural replacement.
Three foreign activists – Ada Lluch, Valentina Gomez, and Eva Vlaardingerbroek – were banned from entering Britain for a Tommy Robinson rally, and the Telegraph can’t stop gushing over how “pretty” this makes the movement look.
The government has banned at least seven foreign voices from attending the rally, including the women highlighted by the Telegraph.
Critics point out the blatant double standard: pro-Palestine marches with openly extremist rhetoric are often tolerated, while a native-focused demonstration drawing tens or hundreds of thousands draws preemptive visa blocks on speakers.
Kier Starmer’s government waves in unvetted migrants and certain extremists but draws the line at articulate critics of mass migration.
The Telegraph profiles the banned women in breathless detail. Catalan activist Ada Lluch has called out “complete invasion” of western democracies, American influencer Valentina Gomez warned about “rapist Muslims taking over,” and Dutch commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek spoke of “the rape, replacement and murder of our people.”
All three were barred from the UK, along with several other activists. Meanwhile, the government continues to wave in the very people these women are warning about.
The Telegraph also warns about attractive home-grown women, including British influencer Saskia Teague. With over 100,000 Instagram followers, she mixes “happy happy happy” selfies with calls for “England for the English,” mass deportations, and an end to shame-free multiculturalism.
The Telegraph acts shocked that she also praises her “Anglo-Saxon hair” and rejects the idea she’s being “used” by men.
Of course the usual suspects are wheeled out to clutch pearls. Hope Not Hate researcher Alex MacKinnon calls it a “glamorisation” effort to shed the “violent thug image.” Institute for Strategic Dialogue’s Hannah Rose says looking desirable builds followers and fits the ideology that women should be “aesthetically pleasing.”
The implication is that these women can’t possibly believe what they’re saying – they must be grifting or being manipulated. Because in the eyes of the legacy media, no normal young attractive woman could possibly notice what’s happening to her country.
This is the same media that files stories on “far-right” threat while ignoring grooming gang scandals, no-go zones, and skyrocketing violence against women and girls. The Telegraph even admits the shift comes from young people “profoundly disaffected with mainstream parties” and disillusioned with modern life.
Yet instead of asking why that disillusionment exists, they obsess over Instagram filters and “zhuzhing” the image.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has today claimed he’s all about “championing peaceful protest” while simultaneously blocking entry to those he dislikes. Starmer declared:
“I’ll always champion peaceful protest. But the Unite the Kingdom march organisers are peddling hatred and division,” then admitting that “We’ve already blocked visas for far-right agitators who want to come here to spew their extremist views.”
Why are intelligent women who take care over their appearance being maligned as ‘far right’? Well, take at look at this lot:
END
UK
CLIMATE CHANGE STUFF: LOTS OF FUN HERE!!
Net Zero Fearmongering In Tatters After Climate Report ‘Implausibility’ Ruling
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,
The fallout from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ruling that computer model high emissions pathway RCP8.5 is “implausible” is only just beginning. Most mainstream media fearmongering stories over the last 15 years need to be moved into the junk file, as do the increasingly shrill sandwich-board pronouncements of King Charles and Sir David Attenborough.
But the rot goes much deeper than ill-informed public comment, although that alone has been enormously influential in promoting the Net Zero fantasy. Activist-ridden science bodies such as the UK Met Office have brazenly used RCP8.5 to flam up weather predictions which in turn has led to onerous requirements being placed on British industry and finance. Politicians have been convinced by patently ridiculous claims and Net Zero rules and regulations have cascaded through the economy and society.
All the politicised predictions need to be junked and all the resulting regulations reconsidered with a view to abolition. They are all based on assumptions that many at the time said were ridiculous and have now been officially marked as not wanted on voyage. Those inclined to be uncharitable might suggest it was all a hoax from start to finish.
In 2022, the Met Office published its latest ‘UK Climate Projections Report‘ (UKCP18) and claimed it provided users “with the most recent scientific evidence on projected climate change with which to plan”. Many words come to mind to describe the output of computer models, none of which include ‘evidence’. In fact, the Met Office made a feature of its deliberate use of RCP8.5, highlighting its findings in bold type and describing them as “plausible”. These plausible projections, a more accurate description might be laughable, suggested summers and winters in the UK by 2070 could be up to 5.1°C and 3.8°C warmer respectively. More bold claims suggested summer rainfall could decrease by up to 45%, with winter precipitation increasing by 39%. Severe droughts and floods would inevitably follow.
The Met Office concludes: “Governments will make use of UKCP18 to inform its adaption and mitigation planning and decision-making.” Unfortunately, they probably did.
The science writer Roger Pielke Jr. was the first to spot the IPCC’s rejection of RCP8.5, calling it “the most significant development in climate research in decades”. He said that the scenario described “impossible futures”, although the results have dominated climate research, headlines and policy for the best part of two decades. Helped also by the reporting in the Daily Sceptic which went viral across social media, the IPCC finding is firmly established in the public domain. But, notes Pielke, remarkably there has not been a peep from major US or international English language mainstream media outlets.
The New York Times is said to be perhaps the most prominent home for promoting news stories based on studies that rely on RCP8.5. It has said nothing, likewise the BBC and the Guardian. Green Blob-funded Climate Brief has covered RCP8.5 more than perhaps any other English language publication, but again silence reigns. Pielke is led to observe: “The outlets most invested in their longstanding promotion of RCP8.5 have the most to lose from a clear-eyed accounting of what its retirement means for science, policy and their own coverage.”
Nevertheless, there have been some rare sightings of mainstream coverage. The Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant published a front page story headed ‘UN Climate Panel Drops Doomsday Scenario’. The writer of the story Maarten Keulemans later posted on X:
Also in Europe, the Berliner Zeitung ran an article suggesting that “extreme climate scenarios played too large a role in public debate for too long”. Another German publication Die Welt also picked up the story, observing: “A lobby made RCP8.5 famous: the most sensationalist of all climate scenarios has determined scientific studies, media and politics – yet it is unrealistic. Now it is actually being phased out”.
Two members of that ‘lobby’ are the main science publications Nature and Science. In recent years it has sometimes been suggested that climate scientists have moved on from RCP8.5 but the evidence suggests the popular climate crackpipe is difficult to put down. Pielke notes that so far in 2026, more than 2,600 studies have been published using the high emission scenarios, and tens of thousands before that. Both Nature and Science have thrived on publishing RCP8.5 drivel – it will be interesting to see how they spin the passing of an attention-seeking, grant-manufacturing old friend.
The implications of RCP8.5’s demise are vast. Science and journalism careers will be affected, trust in another branch of politicised science will be diminished, rules and regulations imposing unnecessary financial climate costs will need to be re-written (don’t hold your breath), while the promoters of Net Zero will lose a vital fearmongering weapon propping up their Great Reset fantasy. Watch this space.
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
IRAN VS ISRAEL/USA
Trump Tells Iran ‘Clock Is Ticking, Move Fast’ After New Peace Proposal As Analysts Predict Likely Return To War
Sunday, May 17, 2026 – 02:10 PM
Update(1410ET): President Trump has warned Iran on Sunday that the “clock is ticking” as Pakistani-mediated talks have not only stalled, but show no signs at all of restarting anytime soon. “They better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” he wrote on Truth Social. “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
He spoke the same day with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who along with Lindsey Graham has been calling for resumption of robust anti-Tehran action to ensure Iran can never go nuclear. Trump’s words have been somewhat of a familiar refrain going back several weeks.
As we detailed below, Iran says it received a counter proposal of ‘5 conditions’ for peace from the White House. In many ways they are directly opposite the 5 conditions Iran sent to the US last week, which Trump had rejected as “garbage”.
But as yet there’s been no indicator that the US side has attached a timeline to its latest demands. Trump is perhaps pushing this new “clock is ticking” as a timeline threat of sorts. But again, there was no specific date included in the fresh warning.
Last week Bloomberg Intelligence circulated a report titled, Iran Rejects Trump’s Offer – Return to War Likely. It concluded:
The diplomatic dance continues: the US and Iran exchanged offers yet again. But they remain far apart, shooting maximalist demands at each other. A comprehensive peace deal is unlikely to materialize. We think the US and Iran will likely return to strikes. But we expect an intense exchange of fire to be temporary and reduce to lower-levels of fighting – what we call the new normal in this protracted conflict.
More from the Bloomberg Intelligence analysis:
Short but Intense… and Costly
Trump doesn’t want long war. His popularity is taking a hit as its economic impact is being felt.
We think Trump will likely revert to a short air and missile strike campaign on Iranian infrastructure, military positions, and energy assets while simultaneously continuing the blockade. Tehran will likely respond with strikes of its own, both on US military assets and America’s regional partners. But we expect this to be a short bombardment, rather than the sustained, high-intensity strike campaign that marked the beginning of the war.
The war has already imposed a heavy economic cost. Oil markets flipped from an expected record surplus to historic supply disruption. Major central banks, facing fresh inflation risks, are turning more hawkish. Consumers now pay more for energy, while their borrowing costs also rise, and the future grows more uncertain.
The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more it will drain the oil stockpiles cushioning governments, companies, and consumers today. Once inventories run thin, prices need to do the hard work: rising high enough to curb demand back in line with available supply.
Since that report was issued, nothing has changed, and both sides seem to have dug in their heels even more.
* * *
According to a Sunday report from Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency, the United States has laid down a firm, take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum to Tehran. Both sides are still trying to patiently wait out the Hormuz crisis, hoping to inflict more economic pain on the other until they blink.
At the top of the list, the US is demanding a near-total dismantling of Iran’s atomic ambitions, “allowing only one Iranian nuclear facility to remain operational.”
The list includes direct rejections in response to Iran’s own five conditions from a week ago, which President Trump said were “unacceptable” and “garbage”.
For example the US is refusing to pay compensation for damage caused during strikes on Iranian territory – a ‘maximalist’ sticking point which Tehran had demanded previously.
Washington is also reportedly insists that 400 kilograms of enriched uranium be transferred from Iran to the US, while only one active nuclear facility would remain operational inside the Islamic Republic.
Iran for its part has recently vowed to never transfer its nuclear material out of the Islamic Republic, calling the issue a matter of national sovereignty and energy security which it alone has say over. This after even Russia offered to take it.
The newly reported five conditions by the US side further states that the US does not intend to release more than 25% of frozen Iranian assets. Tehran has demanded the dropping of all US sanctions as a key basis for lasting settlement.
Here are the five newly proposed Washington conditions, which some pundits have called ‘wishful thinking’:
- No war compensation from US
- Give up 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium to US
- Iran can only have on nuclear facility to remain active
- Not more than 25% of frozen assets to be unfreezed
- Halting war on all fronts depends on negotiations
So this leaves a huge distance between the Washington list and Tehran’s list, as the seemingly unbridgeable gulf remains, also as Iran is digging in its heels.
As a reminder, the below is the Islamic Republic’s list, which it hasn’t backed down from. It has offered the following as the only basis on which to restart talks:
- Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
- Lifting all sanctions
- Releasing frozen Iranian assets
- Compensation for war damages and losses
- Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz
While a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire managed to take effect on April 8, subsequent talks in Islamabad completely collapsed, but then President Trump later extended the truce indefinitely, likely to buy time and to figure out “what’s next” – while seeking a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, and of all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports.
With Washington demanding total disarmament and Iran demanding control over the world’s most critical oil transit choke point, the stage is set for a likely coming renewal of direct clashes, given the zero sum demands of each side now on the table.
END
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL MONDAY MORNING UPDATE
Trump Tells Iran ‘Clock Is Ticking, Move Fast’ After New Peace Proposal As Analysts Predict Likely Return To War
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 05:10 AM
Update(1410ET): President Trump has warned Iran on Sunday that the “clock is ticking” as Pakistani-mediated talks have not only stalled, but show no signs at all of restarting anytime soon. “They better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” he wrote on Truth Social. “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
He spoke the same day with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who along with Lindsey Graham has been calling for resumption of robust anti-Tehran action to ensure Iran can never go nuclear. Trump’s words have been somewhat of a familiar refrain going back several weeks.
As we detailed below, Iran says it received a counter proposal of ‘5 conditions’ for peace from the White House. In many ways they are directly opposite the 5 conditions Iran sent to the US last week, which Trump had rejected as “garbage”.
But as yet there’s been no indicator that the US side has attached a timeline to its latest demands. Trump is perhaps pushing this new “clock is ticking” as a timeline threat of sorts. But again, there was no specific date included in the fresh warning.
Last week Bloomberg Intelligence circulated a report titled, Iran Rejects Trump’s Offer – Return to War Likely. It concluded:
The diplomatic dance continues: the US and Iran exchanged offers yet again. But they remain far apart, shooting maximalist demands at each other. A comprehensive peace deal is unlikely to materialize. We think the US and Iran will likely return to strikes. But we expect an intense exchange of fire to be temporary and reduce to lower-levels of fighting – what we call the new normal in this protracted conflict.
More from the Bloomberg Intelligence analysis:
Short but Intense… and Costly
Trump doesn’t want long war. His popularity is taking a hit as its economic impact is being felt.
We think Trump will likely revert to a short air and missile strike campaign on Iranian infrastructure, military positions, and energy assets while simultaneously continuing the blockade. Tehran will likely respond with strikes of its own, both on US military assets and America’s regional partners. But we expect this to be a short bombardment, rather than the sustained, high-intensity strike campaign that marked the beginning of the war.
The war has already imposed a heavy economic cost. Oil markets flipped from an expected record surplus to historic supply disruption. Major central banks, facing fresh inflation risks, are turning more hawkish. Consumers now pay more for energy, while their borrowing costs also rise, and the future grows more uncertain.
The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more it will drain the oil stockpiles cushioning governments, companies, and consumers today. Once inventories run thin, prices need to do the hard work: rising high enough to curb demand back in line with available supply.
Since that report was issued, nothing has changed, and both sides seem to have dug in their heels even more.
END
IRAN/UAE
ATTACK DRONE HITS NEAR UAE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
Sunday, May 17, 2026 – 08:59 AM
Abu Dhabi authorities report that a kamikaze drone struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Al Dhafra. Officials said there were no injuries, no impact on radiological safety levels, and no disruption to plant operations.
Dubai-based newspaper Gulf News cited the Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation, which said the one-way drone attack on the Arab world’s first commercial nuclear facility did not affect the safety of the nuclear power plant or the readiness of its essential systems. FANR added that all systems were operating normally as of late Sunday.
Barakah operates four APR-1400 reactors with a combined capacity of 5.6 gigawatts, generating about 40 terawatt-hours annually, or about 25% of the UAE’s electricity. Any successful attack on Barakah would cripple the UAE’s power grid.
The incident comes as the broader U.S.-Iran truce remains fragile, with President Trump recently describing the ceasefire as being on “life support.”
Trump told reporters on Friday that Iran’s latest proposal was “unacceptable” and blamed the Iranians for backtracking on the nuclear issue.
In response to Iranian demands, the Trump administration has set five conditions of its own for Tehran, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency.
Those conditions include:
- No U.S. compensation for damages
- Transfer of 400 kg of uranium from Iran to the United States
- Limiting Iran’s nuclear activities to only one operating facility
- No release of even 25% of frozen Iranian assets
- Linking any ceasefire across all fronts to the continuation of negotiations
Here are the latest headlines from the Gulf region (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Peace Talks
- The US has set five main conditions for a prospective peace agreement with Iran, including no compensation payments, removal of 400 kilograms of uranium, limiting nuclear infrastructure to a single facility, releasing less than 25% of frozen assets, and suspension of certain activities. [BFW]
- Iran’s foreign minister said a lack of trust is the biggest obstacle in negotiations to end the war with the US, citing contradictory messages that have made Tehran reluctant about American intentions. [APW]
- Iran would be open to diplomatic help, particularly from China, to help ease tensions. [APW]
Hormuz Chokepoint
- Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz will flow once the conflict with the US and Israel is over, but the sides are no closer to resolving their differences. [BN]
- Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, with only limited vessel movements observed and most tied to Iranian-linked shipping. [BN]
- A Vietnam-bound supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude, which was halted by US forces after crossing the Strait of Hormuz, has resumed its journey after getting clearance. [BN]
Gulf Attacks
- A drone strike caused a fire at an electrical generator outside Abu Dhabi’s Barakah nuclear power plant on Sunday, with no injuries reported and no impact on radiological safety. [BFW] [APW]
- The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia carried out multiple strikes against Iran after their countries were attacked by the regime in the early days of the war. [WSJ]
- Iran seized a support vessel owned by a Chinese security firm near the Strait of Hormuz, appearing to signal it is unwilling to permit armed protection even for ships sailing on behalf of its strongest global backer. [WSJ]
Economic Impact
- Iraq is currently pumping just 1.4 million barrels a day due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the knock-on impact on production facilities.
- Israel’s economy contracted 3.3% in the first quarter in annualized terms, deeper than the expected 2% drop, due to security-related shutdowns from the war with Iran.
- The Philippines’ gross gaming revenue fell 16% in the first quarter due to economic headwinds from the Iran war impact. [BFW]
Diplomatic Signals
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has been named Iran’s special envoy for China affairs. [BFW]
- President Trump returned from a two-day summit with China’s Xi Jinping, where both agreed the strait should be open but made no apparent progress toward that goal. [BN]
Energy Market
- Great Global Energy Rewiring Accelerates: UAE To Double Crude Export Capacity Bypassing Hormuz Chaos [ZH]
- World Starts To “Build” Around Hormuz; Japan Buying UAE Oil Bypassing Strait As ADNOC To Spend $55 Billion On Pipelines
- Why One Bank Thinks It’s “Magical Thinking” That Hormuz Reopens In June
Brent Crude
Professional subscribers can read the latest Hormuz reports from Wall Street at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
END
IRAN/ VS ISRAEL/USA//MONDAY/MORNING
Oil Slides After Iran Says US Agreed To Lift Oil Sanctions During Talks, Long-Term ‘Nuclear Freeze’ On Table
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 08:50 AM
Summary
- A flurry of (the somewhat typically-timed) Monday opener headlines have pushed oil prices lower, erasing weekend gains, including Al Arabia reporting that Iran is ready to accept a long-term nuclear freeze, instead of full dismantling.
- Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14-points through Pakistan, amid reports that the US has offered to lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the interim negotiating period.
- Reports further add that Russia’s offer to take and hold Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile on its territory is being taken seriously.
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* * *
Long-Term Nuclear Freeze on Table
Saudi state-owned Al Arabiya early Monday has issued a bombshell if true (but still very much not officially confirmed), reporting that Iran has agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantling. The outlet also reports that Iran has withdrawn its demand for compensation, instead demanding economic concessions. However, this could be highly dubious, given over the past several days Tehran has not shown willingness to back down from this demand of compensation.
It also seems Russia’s offer to take and temporarily hold Iran’s enriched uranium is being taken seriously. Here are the alleged “leaks” of the working draft peace document:
- Working on a condition transfer of enriched uranium to Russia instead of the US.
- Seeking multiple international guarantees for any agreement.
- Wants Pakistan and Oman to have a ‘role’ in any ‘clash’ in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Seeking a political formation that allows Iran to save face.
- Separate the maritime route from nuclear issues.
Oil pushes lower on the additional headlines, following initial reports that the US would lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the negotiating period…
As a reminder from days ago: “US President Donald Trump said Friday that he would accept a 20-year suspension of the uranium enrichment at the heart of Iran’s rogue nuclear program if Tehran gave a “real” guarantee, in an apparent shift from his previous demand that Iran permanently halt its program and his pledge to ensure Iran can never attain nuclear weapons.”
US Lifting Oil Sanctions During Negotiation Period: Tasnim
Tasnim news agency says Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14 points through Pakistan. State sources say the focus by Iranian leadership is to end the war and build trust. This as Pakistan’s interior minister has extended his Tehran visit for a third day.
In this context a source close to the negotiating team reportedly told Tasnim that, unlike their previous texts, Washington agreed in the new text to lift Iran’s oil sanctions during the negotiation period. This is a first big sign of progress since the White House reportedly sent five ‘counter’ conditions to Tehran, which only offered a partial sanctions reduction.
Per more from Tasnim:
- Waiving sanctions means temporarily lifting sanctions.
- Iran insists that lifting all sanctions on Iran should be part of the US’s commitments.
- However, the US has proposed suspending OFAC until a final understanding is reached.
The headline was enough to push oil down, erasing the gains over the weekend…
Another blurb via TASS, offering a little more in terms of likely conflicting interpretations and expectations:
According to the source, unlike in its previous proposals, the US has agreed in its new offer to suspend oil sanctions against Iran for the duration of the talks. The source noted that Tehran, for its part, insists on the lifting of all sanctions, while Washington is only ready to waive US Treasury sanctions until a final agreement is reached.
More Latest Developments
According to more of the latest headlines via Al Jazeera:
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says talks between Iran and the US are continuing through Pakistan.
- He added that Iranian and Omani technical teams met in Oman to negotiate a mechanism for ensuring safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Kuwait and Qatar have condemned drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, which officials say originated from Iraqi airspace.
- The Israeli army says it struck more than 30 targets in southern Lebanon, which it claims were used by Hezbollah to attack Israeli forces.
- The Israeli navy has seized vessels that were part of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla, arresting 100 activists on board.
And more developments via Newsquawk:
- US President Trump warned on Truth Social that the clock is ticking for Iran and that they better get moving fast, or there won’t be anything left for them, and that time is of the essence.
- US President Trump declined to give a specific deadline for negotiations with Iran and will hold a Situation Room meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss possible options for military action, while he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about the situation in Iran, according to Axios. Trump also stated that he still thinks Iran wants a deal and he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, which he hopes will be better than the prior offer. Furthermore, Axios’s Ravid reported that Trump threatened that attacks would resume with greater intensity if the Iranian regime does not come up with a better proposal, while Channel 12’s Kraus posted that President Trump said in a phone call that he thinks the Iranians should be afraid of what’s going on right now.
- Pakistan shared revised Iranian proposal to end the war with the US on Sunday night, according to Pakistani sources. The course added that “we don’t have much time”, adding that both countries “keep changing their goalposts”.
- Western sources say the new Iranian proposal includes a commitment of unclear value not to produce nuclear weapons but no mention of uranium or Hormuz, according to Journalist Segal.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said talks with the US continue through Pakistani mediation. The spokesperson added that they have made great efforts for safe movement and protection of the Strait of Hormuz and are in constant contact with Oman to develop a mechanism. On Uranium, Baghaei said Tehran does not need any party to recognize its right to uranium enrichment and will not discuss during negotiations with the US.
- Iranian Defence Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik warned of a regretful response to enemies and said that Iranian armed forces are fully prepared to confront any potential attack by the US and Israeli regime, according to IRNA.
- Iranian Major General Rezaei said Iran is serious about diplomacy and negotiations, but is more serious about dealing with the aggressor, while he added that the US must now prove its good intentions and that Iranian armed forces are on the trigger as diplomatic efforts continue.
- Iran said transit through the Strait of Hormuz would flow again once its conflict with the US and Israel is over, although the sides remain far from resolving their differences, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, three cargo-empty, US-sanctioned tankers reportedly slipped through the US naval blockade in recent days, according to TankerTrackers.com.
- Israel said it carried out a Gaza strike targeting the de facto head of Hamas’s armed wing, while Israel also conducted an airstrike on the towns of Froun, Kfar Hounah and Zawtar al-Sharqiya in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, an Israeli air strike targeted Baalbek, Lebanon and killed an Islamic Jihad commander and his daughter.
- UAE officials said a drone attack set off a fire near the UAE’s nuclear power station, while it was still investigating the source of the attack.
- Saudi Defence Ministry said it intercepted three drones launched from Iraq after entering the kingdom’s airspace.
* * *
While a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire managed to take effect on April 8, subsequent talks in Islamabad completely collapsed, but then President Trump later extended the truce indefinitely, likely to buy time and to figure out “what’s next” – while seeking a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, and of all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports. Currently the sides are merely trying to get back to the table.
END
SAME AS ABOVE STORY DENIED
Oil Rebounds After Iranian Denial: Will ‘Under No Circumstances’ Give Up Nuclear Program To End War
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 10:35 AM
Summary
- Oil rebounds on Tasnim reporting Iranian denial: Tehran “under no circumstances” will negotiate nuclear issue as part of an end to the war.
- A flurry of (the somewhat typically-timed) Monday opener headlines have pushed oil prices lower, erasing weekend gains, including Al Arabia reporting that Iran is ready to accept a long-term nuclear freeze, instead of full dismantling.
- Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14-points through Pakistan, amid reports that the US has offered to lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the interim negotiating period.
- Reports further add that Russia’s offer to take and hold Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile on its territory is being taken seriously.
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* * *
Oil Quickly Rebounding on Iranian Denial
In a far too familiar pattern, just before US market open on Monday, a slew of optimistic Iran headlines saw oil erase weekend gains, which mostly came through Saudi Arabia’s state-funded Al Arabiya, as well as Reuters… only to be followed by Iranian officials rejecting the substance of these reports, putting things firmly back at square one.
Tasnim has newly cited Iranian government sources who seek to make clear that “Iran under no circumstances” will engage in new nuclear negotiations for an end to the war. Contradicting the earlier morning reports, it still sees negotiations to find peace in the war with the US as separate from the nuclear file. “Fundamental differences between the Iranian and American texts still remain”, Tasnim reports, citing a source.
“Despite some changes in the new American text, fundamental differences stemming from the Americans’ exaggeration and lack of realism remain,” Tasnim writes, citing the Iranian source. According to more of the statements per state media:
- “Iran will not abandon its firm and principled positions on ending the war and realizing the rights of the Iranian people”.
- “Iran’s frozen assets must be returned to the Iranian people in a transparent and definitive manner, and paper promises are of no use”.
- “Despite some promises, there is disagreement about the return of the frozen funds”.
- “Iran’s determination regarding the necessity of paying compensation by the Americans for the military aggression against Iran is very serious”.
- “The Americans are far from Iran’s demands regarding its amount and some other issues.”
- “the Americans are still trying to tie the negotiations to end the war to the nuclear issue, which is against logic and Iran will not agree to it. The Americans must understand that Iran will in no way agree to an end to the war in return for nuclear commitments”.
- “Iran has not and does not have any intention of building nuclear weapons, and this claim is just an excuse and deception by the Americans. This issue has also been emphasized in the new text”.
Oil reacted as expected to this official ‘denial’ of the prior optimism – quickly rebounding, also as Trump is said to be “losing patience” with the progress of talks. A US source has told Al Jazeera Iran has “days not weeks” to show progress.
Tasnim: Another Iranian Ship Breaks Through US Blockade Line
Iranian state media is claiming that a Iranian oil tanker under US sanctions that was off the coast of India two weeks ago has now docked at Kharg Island, having broken through the US naval blockade. Tasnim reports that “the LPG tanker passed through the US blockade line undetected and entered Iranian waters.”
The Pentagon has been asserting an essentially airtight blockade on ‘illicit’ ships going to or from Iranian ports. CENTCOM has said it has turned around at least 75 vessels, while Iranian media has since the blockade’s start touted several ships making it through.
END
MONDAY AFTERNOON
Trump Rejects Concessions To Iran As It Refuses Nuclear Handover Amid Rising Threat Of Renewed US Military Action
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 01:25 PM
Summary
- US denies earlier Tasnim report of agreeing to lift oil sanctions during talks; Trump tells NYP ‘not open’ to Iran concessions.
- Trump calls for Iran’s total military surrender in Monday morning Truth Social post.
- Oil rebounds on Tasnim reporting Iranian denial: Tehran “under no circumstances” will negotiate nuclear issue as part of an end to the war.
- A flurry of (the somewhat typically-timed) Monday opener headlines have pushed oil prices lower, erasing weekend gains, including Al Arabia reporting that Iran is ready to accept a long-term nuclear freeze, instead of full dismantling.
- Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14-points through Pakistan, amid reports that the US has offered to lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the interim negotiating period.
- Reports further add that Russia’s offer to take and hold Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile on its territory is being taken seriously.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-december-31-725&height=300US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
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* * *
Trump ‘Not Open’ to Any Concessions for Tehran: NYP Interview
Another repetition of the weeks-long stale-mated reality: …so Trump is ‘not open’ to any concessions, but Iran deal happening ‘soon’ – we are yet again told, as the Iranians themselves haven’t appeared to budge on anything.
President Trump told The NY Post on Monday he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks. Highlights:
- And in an ominous foreshadowing, Trump said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
- In the brief phone interview The Post, Trump seemingly shut the door to Iran’s Sunday offer for a diplomatic talks.
- Asked about his Friday remark that he’d be willing to accept a 20-year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment, Trump interjected: “I’m not open to anything right now.”
- The president declined to get into any detail. “I can’t really talk to you about it. Too many things are happening,” he said.
- “I can tell you they want to make a deal more than ever, because they know we’re—what’s going to be happening soon,” Trump said.
- Questioned about regional source claims that Iran is attempting to “wait out” Washington on both the nuclear issue and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said he “hadn’t heard that.”
US Denies Tasnim Report It Agreed to Lift Iran Oil Sanctions
And the denials keep rolling in. First via CNBC:
…as the US side does not seem very confidently in control of the situation – quite the opposite:
Just like that, back to square zero once again we go… and back to headline roulette.
US PLANS NEW RUSSIAN OIL WAIVER AS IRAN WAR CRUNCHES SUPPLIES
US DENIES REPORT IT AGREED TO LIFT IRAN OIL SANCTIONS: CNBC
Steady climb in oil continues on the denials…
END
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
A BIG JOKE
Trump: Holding Off ‘Planned’ Attack On Iran At Request Of Gulf Allies, ‘Deal Will Be Made’
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 03:10 PM
Summary
- Trump says holding off on ‘planned’ Tuesday attack upon request of Gulf states.
- US denies earlier Tasnim report of agreeing to lift oil sanctions during talks; Trump tells NYP ‘not open’ to Iran concessions.
- Trump calls for Iran’s total military surrender in Monday morning Truth Social post.
- Oil rebounds on Tasnim reporting Iranian denial: Tehran “under no circumstances” will negotiate nuclear issue as part of an end to the war.
- A flurry of (the somewhat typically-timed) Monday opener headlines have pushed oil prices lower, erasing weekend gains, including Al Arabia reporting that Iran is ready to accept a long-term nuclear freeze, instead of full dismantling.
- Iran has submitted its latest proposal comprising 14-points through Pakistan, amid reports that the US has offered to lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the interim negotiating period.
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* * *
Trump: Asked by Gulf States to Hold Off Attacking Iran
Here we go again: Trump says he’s holding off a planned attack which was supposedly “scheduled” for Tuesday, at the request of Gulf leaders, including Qatar, KSA, and UAE. “A deal will be made,” he says…
Oil drops on the headlines, amid the ongoing roulette…
Iranian President Somewhat Defensive
A message from Iran’s president, perhaps aimed at those arguing that trying to engage the US has run its course. Words aimed at IRGC and domestic population, it appears…
“Dialogue does not mean surrender…” will “safeguard the interests and honor of Iran.”
END
Graham Calls For ‘Short But Forceful’ New Strikes On Iran, Complains Waiting For ‘Status Quo’ Talks Looks Weak
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 03:45 PM
At a moment the US-Iran ceasefire is officially on life support, and with the world’s most critical energy chokepoint remaining blocked while the American consumer is paying the price at the pump, beltway hawks are calling for renewed major military action to ‘solve’ the standoff.
Foremost among them, Senator Lindsey Graham, hit the Sunday news circuit to urge President Trump to rip up the current playbook and resume US major military strikes on Tehran. According to Graham, the current diplomatic paralysis and the shuttered Strait of Hormuz are only fueling Iran’s strategic position while inflicting severe economic pain domestically.
He has perhaps picked up on the bad optics of Trump’s constant barrage of Truth Social posts which often seem written in an exasperated and impatience style.
“I think the status quo is hurting us all,” Graham told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” – as he made the case for using military pressure to get the Iranians to comply with Washington demands on their nuclear program and other issues.
The well-known hawk from South Carolina correctly observed: “The longer the [Strait of Hormuz] is closed, the more we try to pursue a deal that never happens, the stronger Iran gets.” However, this reflects one of those ‘one more escalation step and the problem will be fixed’ approaches among the NeoCons. The ‘just one more thing’ usually perpetuates the quagmire.
He turned to urging the president to “weaken them further” given that “there’s more targets to be had” – which is pretty much also the Israeli line.
Graham further said there are no signs that after the prior 38-day bombing campaign that Iran’s leadership has abandoned what he called the Islamic Republic’s supposed goal “to terrorize the world, destroy Israel, come after us.”
“Gas prices will come down when you put Iran in a box,” Graham added.
Another interesting moment in the interview came when the GOP senator seemed in agreement with Trump on not caring about Americans’ finances in comparison with the Iran nuclear question:
Trump drew criticism last week for saying he was not weighing Americans’ finances in the talks, comments that stirred Republican anxiety ahead of the midterm elections. Graham dismissed that concern.
“It’s worth losing my job,” he told Welker. “If I had to give my job up to make sure Iran would never have a nuclear weapon, I would do it.”
Iran is meanwhile still not backing down, after last Friday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear that Tehran has “no trust” in Washington given its “contradictory messages”.
Graham calling for a “short but forceful” new military escalation against Iran…
I have every confidence that President Trump fully understands the situation with Iran and will not continue to tolerate a refusal to negotiate in good faith along with Iran’s defiant aggression in the Strait of Hormuz and throughout the region.
It is abundantly clear to me that Iran has been very weakened militarily and economically. But at the same time, they have become more emboldened and aggressive.
A short but forceful response now would reset the conflict in all the right ways.
When it comes to Iran, it is imperative that we negotiate from a position of strength and dominance. We must finish what we started. I fear continuing negotiations without a forceful response prolongs the conflict, gives our allies doubt and will further embolden the Iranian terrorist regime.
He reiterated that Washington needs to get serious, while it is US officials saying Iran must show willingness to make compromise. At this point it seems Washington is the more desperate to get a deal done, but each side is waiting out the other.
ISRAEL TBN
IRAN
Iran Counter-Blockade Bites As No Tankers Load At Kharg For 10th Day
by Tyler Durden
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 12:20 PM
Earlier today, in response to news that the number of tankers anchored at Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal had hit a post-blockade peak, we wondered if this means that Iran is running out of tankers to store oil, i.e., Trump’ blockade of the blockade is working. In any case, it certainly means that Iran is no longer able to sell any of the oil, depriving it of much needed oil export revenues which it has found itself forced to shut in as there is no open downstream path for the product.
A few hours later, Bloomberg echoed question, writing that Iran’s main oil export facility in the Persian Gulf stayed devoid of tankers for at least a 10th day, underscoring the growing strain on Tehran from a US naval blockade.
Using Sentinel satellite data of Kharg Islan, Bloomberg found that since May 8, no loadings of large ocean-going tankers are visible at the facility’s crude-export berths.
The counter blockade is depriving Tehran of critical petroleum revenue and the market of millions of barrels of supply. Prior to the US blockade, Iran was by far the largest – if not only – country exporting its crude because the Islamic Republic had blocked other countries’ ships from using the strait.
With no loaded tankers departing Kharg even as oil keeps arriving at the country’s largest oil terminal, it remains unclear how much of a factor lack of spare capacity has become as Trump hopes to cripple Iran’s oil production with lenghty shut-ins. Bloomberg’ Julian Lee writes that it’s hard to say the speed at which Kharg’ remaining capacity might fill given that Iran has curbed its output in response to the American blockade.
One possibility is that it’s cheaper for Tehran to use on-land facilities rather than filling ships, something that might help to explain the absence of loadings and a simultaneous buildup of tankers in nearby anchorage areas.
Here, Bloomberg’s other energy analyst Javier Blas chimes in, and notes that Iran is still loading crude into tankers (although not in Kharg Island). Instead, it’s loading a tanker at Jask, an alternative terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. But since it is inside the US Navy blockade line, those tankers are likely only being used for storage purposes.
An image on Monday from the European Union’s Sentinel 1 satellite, examined by Bloomberg, shows a ship moored at Jask’s loading buoy. A separate image from the Sentinel 2 orbiter from Sunday shows an Aframax-sized vessel heading toward the mooring.
Vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg identify the tanker as the Vernon, a ship that has been sanctioned by the US for its involvement in Iran’s oil trade. It remains to be seen if the ship will attempt to get through the American cordon.
There were no telephone or email contact details for the Panama-based company listed as the ship’s beneficial owner and manager on the Equasis maritime database, while emails to the ISM manager, based in Hong Kong, were returned as undeliverable
While Tehran appears to have shifted its primary loading terminal from Kharg to Jask, loading at Jask remains uncommon. The port has seen only nine carriers filled since the terminal was officially opened in 2021. Of those, five have taken place since the war began at the end of February.
Up to Friday, the US Navy had redirected 75 Iran-linked commercial vessels and disabled a further four since it imposed its blockade on April 13, US Central Command said in posts on X last week.
TURKEY/IRAN WAR
The sale of gold did not help Turkey one bit: its lira fell to record lows:
(zerohedge)
Behind Turkey’s Gold Sales: The Biggest Ever Plunge In Foreign Reserves
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 05:45 AM
Shortly after the Iran war started, with gold unexpectedly tumbling, we showed that the reason behind gold’s paradoxical move – after all, the precious metal has traditionally been a store of value in times of geopolitical stress – was the furious liquidation of gold by emerging markets, in this case Turkey, scrambling to obtain reserve dry powder so Ankara could cover soaring costs of energy imports.
And indeed, the latest central bank data showed that Turkey’s foreign reserves had their biggest monthly decline on record in March, as the Iran war triggered global selloffs in emerging market assets and strained the lira.
According to balance-of-payments data released on Wednesday, Turkey’s official reserves cratered by $43.4 billion in March. Part of the decline reflected state intervention to offset portfolio outflows. The current-account deficit, meanwhile, widened to $9.7 billion in March from $7.3 billion in February as a result of soaring commodity prices.
A major energy importer, Turkey has been hit hard by higher oil and gas prices caused by the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting disruptions to world supplies of crude and refined products. Meanwhile, global banks have started changing their formerly favorable outlook on the lira, citing the exploding current-account deficit. Should inflation pressures persist, Turkey will have no choice but to pursue another accelerated devaluation of the Turkish lira.
“As international institutions continue to raise their average oil price forecasts for 2026, disruptions in supply chains and ongoing regional tensions — and their potential negative impact on transportation and tourism revenues — keep upward risks alive in year-end projections” for Turkey, said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci.
Turkish central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said last week that the ratio between the current-account deficit and gross domestic product would be “below historical averages” this year while acknowledging the upside risks.
Since President Erdogan’s reelection in 2023, a new economic team has sought to stabilize Turkey’s external finances by cooling demand through conventional tools such as higher interest rates and restrictions on credit growth.
The central bank has kept its benchmark rate at 37% for two straight meetings but has effectively lended from a costlier rate of 40% since the outbreak of the Iran war — a technical measure to tighten liquidity without instituting a formal rate hike.
Inflationary pressures persist, however, with annual price growth picking up to 32.4% in April, a number that is set to rise higher in the coming months.
END
HAMAS
May 18, 5:57 PM
Mohammed Ouda named as new head of Hamas military wing
Hamas has named Mohammed Ouda as the new leader of the Izzadin al-Qassam Brigades, its military wing, following the assassination of former leader Izz al-Din al-Haddad, Asharq al-Awsat reported on Monday.
Ouda served as head of military intelligence for the Qassam Brigades during the October 7 massacre.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/SUNDAY
Largest Ukrainian Drone Attack On Moscow In Over A Year Leaves Four Dead
Sunday, May 17, 2026 – 03:45 PM
The Russian capital has just suffered possibly its single biggest and deadliest Ukrainian drone attack of the war – and certainly the largest attack wave on Moscow in the last year. It ironically comes exactly a week after President Zelensky signed on to a three day Russian ‘Victory Day’ ceasefire at the behest of President Trump. It also comes after several days of major Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.
At least four people have been killed in the overnight large-scale assault wave, with dozens more wounded. Regional airports have been shut down, and there’s been a sense of panic as the threat lingered into the daylight hours Sunday, with onlookers filming drones flying uncontested over Moscow airspace.
“A woman died in Khimki, north of Moscow, and a person was trapped under rubble, regional governor Andrei Vorobiev said. A man and a woman were killed in the village of Pogorelki,” BBC reports, citing local authorities.
Additionally, “A male Indian citizen was killed and three others injured, India’s Moscow embassy said, but it was not clear whether these casualties were included in Vorobiev’s tally. Another person died in Belgorod region bordering Ukraine.”
The regional governor said that residences were on fire, with a home in the village of Subbotino, southwest of Moscow, being one of them.
Reports say the attack marks the first time of the entire 4+ year long war that Ukraine directly struck a Moscow oil refinery, considered to be the most protected energy facility in the country, with multiple strikes landing on target.
Moment of attack on Moscow refinery:
Hours-long fire at the key refinery…
Some eyewitness accounts said at one point drones were seen flying in formation over Moscow, as if to make a mockery of Russian anti-air defense.
Ukraine’s drone swarms have long proven a major problem for Russia’s military, being small and low to the ground, able to evade expensive air defenses which were designed to intercept larger, faster inbound projectiles like rockets or aircraft.
Overnight, Russia’s defense ministry said 556 drones were intercepted around the country. Some 130 of them were intercepted in the Moscow region alone, but clearly at least dozens still made it through.
Amid the suicide UAV attack mayhem, Sheremetyevo – Russia’s busiest airport that serves Moscow – suffered drone damage and falling debris, but there were no reports of injury at the airport.
“The situation in the passenger terminals is calm. Sheremetyevo Airport is providing stable passenger and aircraft services,” airport officials said.
There have also been dramatic scenes of massive fires just underneath busy highways, causing panicked drivers to try and get past the flames quickly and safely, and watching the skies above.
Damage at Sheremetyevo airport…
Ukrainian President Zelensky later owned up to authorizing the attack, saying the strikes were an “entirely justified” response to the last several days of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kiev. This past week saw massive Russian attacks, which killed seven bystanders and wounded many more, including children.
Rare moment of chaos and fear over Moscow…
The tit-for-tat drone hits have increasingly expanded to include civilian neighborhoods on either side of the border, sadly. The ground war has lately been largely stale-mated, with Russia having the clear edge, but the air war has been heating up – with both sides suffering serious damage, particularly at energy sites.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
ODESSA
Ukraine’s Odesa Heavily Attacked In ‘Retaliation’ For Deadly Drone Raids On Moscow
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 10:10 AM
The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) announced Monday that its forces executed a massive missile and drone barrage across Ukraine, which is clearly the expected big retaliatory response following Ukraine’s large-scale drone wave attack on Moscow over the weekend.
Kremlin officials specifically described the new assault as indeed direct retaliation for “terrorist attacks” carried out by Kiev, which killed at least three in the Russian capital, injured dozens, hit a refinery, and unleashed havoc and fear among the population. The MoD said it targeted military and defense industrial sites, but Ukraine’s account differed.
Ukrainian forces had deployed at least 130 UAVs during the capital-bound raid, and damaged a major regional airport. Large fires were spotted near major roadways, sometimes in the heart of busy city areas.
Russia’s nighttime into early Monday retaliation has been expectedly fierce, as overnight it specifically targeted Odesa and Dnipro, leaving at least one person dead and over 30 injured. In the port city of Odesa, the drone strikes damaged residential buildings, a school, and a kindergarten, according to Ukrainian officials.
Ukrainian media chronicled some of the following:
- On Sunday, Russia carried out a combined overnight attack on the city of Dnipro, striking a residential area, sparking multiple fires, and causing casualties.
- According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces began launching drones toward Dnipro at approximately 8 p.m.
- On Monday, May 18, at 2:32 a.m., Ukraine was under threat of ballistic missile strikes. Shortly afterward, missiles were detected heading toward Dnipro, including both ballistic and cruise missiles.
- According to local authorities, Russian drones struck three residential buildings in Odesa’s Kyivskyi and Prymorskyi districts.
- One of the buildings, a single-story house in the Prymorskyi district, was completely destroyed. Other buildings sustained damage to facades, roofs, and windows. Several fires broke out but were quickly extinguished.
But Ukraine’s cross-border drones have also continued unabated, as two people were killed and two more were injured following a a Monday UAV attack on Russia’s southern Belgorod region, local authorities said. Belgorod has come under regular attack since near the start of the war, given its southern-most location, close to the front-lines to the south in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Kremlin announced Monday that Moscow anticipates an eventual resumption of the Russia-Ukraine peace process, though it noted that negotiations are currently paused.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the statement in response to comments from President Trump, who on Friday suggested that a Russian missile strike hitting a Kiev residential building had delayed progress toward ending the four-year conflict.
Per the Associated Press, “The death toll from a Russian missile attack that flattened a Kyiv apartment building rose Friday to 24, including three teenagers, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said as he led the mourning for one of the deadliest attacks on the capital in the 4-year-old war.”
“The cruise missile hit the nine-story corner apartment block Thursday during what the Ukrainian air force said was Russia’s biggest barrage on the country of the full-scale invasion. Emergency workers finished digging through the rubble searching for victims after more than a day, Zelenskyy said on X,” the report adds.
But in response, Peskov emphasized that focus should also be directed toward persistent Ukrainian strikes targeting civilian infrastructure inside Russia.
END
RUSSIA/CHINA
THIS IS DANGEROUS!!
Russian Drone Hits Chinese Ship In Black Sea, Less Than 24-Hours Before Xi-Putin Summit
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 12:00 PM
Just 24 hours before Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are set to meet for their planned summit in Beijing, soon on the heels of Trump’s visit, and a geopolitical wrench may have just been thrown into the works.
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian forces have attacked a Chinese ship heading toward a Ukrainian port – a provocative move that threatens to seriously anger Beijing at the worst possible diplomatic moment.
Early Monday morning, a Russian drone reportedly struck the KSL Deyang, a vessel flying under the Marshall Islands flag, just off the coast of Ukraine, Reuters also confirms.
The ship was reportedly empty at the time while en route to Ukraine’s Pivdennyi port in the Odesa region to load up on iron ore concentrate.
A fire was observed on board, but it was quickly brought under control and extinguished, with the vessel escaping severe damage.
The Ukrainian government is alleging this wasn’t some kind of accidental fog-of-war blunder, with President Zelensky immediately calling out Moscow:
“Drones struck Odesa … and one of the UAVs hit a vessel owned by China. The Russians could not have been unaware of what vessel was at sea,” Zelensky said.
A Ukrainian navy spokesman told AFP that none of the crew members, all Chinese nationals, were injured. He added that the vessel continued on its journey.
“The ship was entering for loading. After it was hit at night by a Shahed, the crew coped with the consequences on their own. Fortunately, no one was injured, and the vessel continued on its way to its port of destination,” navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.
The incident went down just after on Sunday Xi and Putin had just exchanged “congratulatory letters” to set the stage for Putin’s upcoming arrival in Beijing.
The China-owned vessel wasn’t the only ship attacked within that span of time. According to The Independent:
Russia attacked a Panama-flagged civilian vessel heading to Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port in the southern Odesa region on the Black Sea early on Monday, the regional governor said.
It is one of several ships destined for Ukrainian ports that have been struck by Russian forces in the past day.
The vessel was damaged in the attack, which caused a fire, Governor Oleh Kiper said on the Telegram messaging app, adding that no one had been injured in the incident and that the crew had extinguished the fire. The vessel has continued on its way, the governor added.
TradeWinds is also suggesting a third ship was struck, but few details have been given. Black Sea transit continues to be a dangerous prospect, also with naval mines long being a feature of the 4+ year long war.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Ted Danson sees recent “health scare” as “medical wake-up call”; Jodie Foster walking with a cane; Eagles end show early after “medical episode”; SC QB Stephen Garcia has Stage 4 colorectal cancer
Slipknot’s Clown, 56, needs heart surgery (“I feel like I’m dying”); AL State Senator Vivian Davis recovering from “medical emergency” after evacuation from State House; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerMay 15 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
Celebs
UNITED STATES
Ted Danson’s medical wake-up call: Why the TV icon says he no longer gets a ‘free pass’
May 6, 2026
Ted Danson got a wake-up call he didn’t see coming – and it changed his outlook on life. A recent health scare jolted the sitcom legend, 78, into a new reality and stripped away any idea of a “free pass.” “The last thing that kind of hit me that was very liberating was I had a bit of a health scare. I’m totally fine, but it was like, ‘Oh, well, that’s real.’ And it was humbling and, ‘Oh, mortality is the real deal,’ you know. It’s not just a rumor,” Danson said on his podcast, “Where Everybody Knows Your Name.” The “Cheers” actor added that the experience marked a shift from casually acknowledging health to actively prioritizing it..
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Researcher’s note: On April 18, 2021, Ted Danson posted a picture of himself getting “vaccinated”, saying “Let’s do this together! #PlanYourVaccine and learn more with the #RollUpYourSleeves Vaccine Special tonight at 7/6c on @NBC”
Jodie Foster, 63, seen walking with a cane during rare outing with wife Alexandra Hedison
May 13, 2026
Jodie Foster was photographed walking with a cane while on a grocery run with her wife, Alexandra Hedison, in New York City.
The “Silence of the Lambs” star had her hands full as she held onto several bags and stopped several times to rest on Tuesday.
At one point, she called Hedison to help her.
‘Duck Dynasty’: Sadie Robertson’s Baby Choked Again + Something ‘Underlying’ is Wrong
May 10, 2026
Duck Dynasty star Sadie Robertson Huff says her youngest daughter, Kit, has suffered a second choking incident. In fact, the family has learned that “something underlying” is affecting the nine-month-old baby’s ability to effectively swallow food. Sadie shared that news in a social media update, explaining that they’ve spent the past month getting to the bottom of the problem. Sadie didn’t share Kit’s exact diagnosis, though she did imply that she’ll get into more of the details on a forthcoming podcast episode. Instead, she reflected on the family’s journey with Kit’s health issues over the past month, which began after the baby choked at home in April. She also said that Kit is on the mend, and that doctors were able to identify and address the issue.
Researcher’s note – Sadie Robertson Huff and her husband, Christian Huff, decided to get vaccinated [sic] against COVID-19 after doing their own research, as shared in April 2021, while also emphasizing personal freedom of choice. She discussed the decision to get vaccinated [sic] around April 20, 2021, on an episode of her show, At Home With The Robertsons.
The Eagles End Show Early After “Medical Episode”
May 6, 2026
The Eagles headlined the New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival on Saturday, playing to the first daytime sellout crowd in the event’s history. However, NOLA.com reports that the classic rockers had to quickly wrap up their set early – their first performance outside of the Las Vegas Sphere since the start of their residency in 2024, Parade adds – after their piano player Will Hollis [51] suffered a medical emergency. According to the publication, the band drew the performance to a close with 25 minutes left on the docket. The nature of the medical emergency hasn’t been made public.
Researcher’s note – You Can Only ‘Live It Up’ at This Eagles’ ‘Hotel California’ Show If You Get Vaxxed [sic]: https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/the-eagles-vaccinated-only-seattle-concert-hotel-california-tour-1209808/
Slipknot’s Clown Reveals He Needs Heart Surgery: Sometimes “I Feel Like I’m Dying”
May 8, 2026
Slipknot percussionist Shawn “Clown” Crahan [56] revealed that he needs heart surgery in a new conversation with producer Rick Rubin. The revelation came during an appearance on the podcast Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin. In the interview, Clown discussed his seeming inability to exit the band even if he wanted to, with not even this potential heart surgery able to dislodge him from the long-established masked metal act. As transcribed by ThePRP, Clown said the following: “I have a skipping heart and I got to get a surgery. And I found this out after my last tour. I went in, I wasn’t feeling good, and I went in and the nurse was trying to get an EKG thing going on me or whatever and it just wasn’t happening. I kind of fell asleep and I woke up. I’m like, ‘Are you going to get this thing?’ And she’s like, ‘Oh, it’s not working.’ They thought I was having a heart attack right there. Anyway, my heart skips and apparently I’ve taught myself to be like a cross country runner. So, I’m overweight and my brain is so strong that it tells this stuff what to do. So, my standing heart rate at night is 43 and during the day I get down to 33. [It] hasn’t happened since I’ve been here with you, which is good, because I’ll go from ‘on,’ to just straight up I feel like I’m dying. So, I got to get a surgery. It’s a very easy surgery. You’re usually out on the same day. It’s not like they rip you open. This is something about the electricity.”
Researcher’s note – In April 2021, Slipknot percussionist M. Shawn “Clown” Crahan stated he would “definitely” get the COVID-19 vaccine [sic] to enable the band to return to touring, despite not having a flu shot in 20 years. He also expressed support for requiring proof of vaccination [sic] for entry to countries to facilitate safe, live performances: https://www.metalsucks.net/2021/04/22/slipknots-clown-will-definitely-get-covid-19-vaccine/
Cleveland Browns owners give $12.5M to wipe out the blood cancer Dee Haslam is fighting
May 6, 2026
CLEVELAND, OH – When Dee Haslam [71] received a diagnosis of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in 2021, it could have been a devastating blow. Instead, it became a catalyst. Now she and her husband Jimmy – managing partners of Haslam Sports Group and owners of the Cleveland Browns – are investing $12.5 million in the research that could one day cure the disease that changed her life. Chronic lymphocytic leukemia is the most common form of leukemia in adults. Modern targeted therapies have transformed it into a manageable, chronic condition for many patients – but there is still no cure. And because it is classified as a rare disease, it is among the more than 95% of rare conditions that currently have no approved therapy at all. Dee Haslam has also served on the University Hospitals Board of Directors since 2015 and co-chairs the health system’s $2 billion fundraising campaign.
Former South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer at 38 years old
May 6, 2026
A former college football star is now fighting cancer at 38 years old. Stephen Garcia, a quarterback for four years at South Carolina, revealed on social media Wednesday that he was diagnosed with Stage 4 colorectal cancer. A GoFundMe page, organized by his wife Maria that has already garnered nearly $100K in donations, said that after a trip to the emergency room and multiple imaging tests, Garcia was diagnosed with cancer and was set to begin chemotherapy. He is now on an “aggressive” track, and “he will be meeting with specialized liver and colon surgeons to determine the next steps in his treatment plan.” Garcia took to Facebook to share the GoFundMe link and said he is confident he will be able to overcome the diagnosis. “Wasn’t overly excited to share this news but it is what it is. We have a great team of doctors and staff that’s confident we can beat this! It’s the only option,” he wrote. “If there’s one lesson to be learned, get checked and don’t be afraid to visit the doctors office when you don’t feel 100%.”
Alabama state senator recovering from medical emergency following evacuation from state building
May 6, 2026
MOBILE, Ala. – Alabama State Senator Vivian Davis Figures [69] is recovering from a medical emergency and has since returned home. Sources say Davis Figures, the mother of U.S. Representative Shomari Figures, was evaluated following an evacuation from the Alabama State House in Montgomery. The house was evacuated due to flooding in the Montgomery area. Sources say Davis Figures is home and resting comfortably.
INDIA
Kaarina Kaisar to be airlifted to Chennai for advanced treatment
May 11, 2026
Kaarina Kaisar [30], a lively and popular young content creator who had recently been building a career in acting and screenwriting, is set to be flown to Chennai this afternoon (May 11) by air ambulance for advanced treatment after being placed on life support due to severe liver complications. The matter was confirmed to Prothom Alo by her father, former national footballer Kaisar Hamid. Speaking to Prothom Alo this afternoon, Kaisar Hamid said, “We have just received the visa. The air ambulance will arrive this afternoon to take her to Chennai. There are huge hospital bills here, and a large amount of money is also needed for the air ambulance. My wife and I are breaking some fixed deposits, and we are also arranging to sell a piece of land. Hopefully, everything will be completed within today.” Regarding Kaarina’s latest health condition, Kaisar Hamid said there had been no major improvement, although doctors have so far managed to keep her blood pressure under control. Family sources said Karina had been unwell for several days. What initially appeared to be a common illness later deteriorated rapidly. After being admitted to hospital, doctors reportedly detected an infection and confirmed that she had contracted Hepatitis A. She had also been suffering from fatty liver complications beforehand. As her condition worsened, she suffered liver failure last Friday (May 8) and was subsequently placed on life support.
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DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Someone shared this with me on Jared Kushner (our great POTUS Trump’s son-in-law who led the deadly ventilators also) and his role in Operation Warp Speed (OWS), the mRNA vaccine that KILLED so many
I am seeking to validate the script is the actual text; note, I have already shared this years ago that vaccine was being trialed as it was being produced; key here is NO one, not Kushner, NO one
| Dr. Paul AlexanderMay 16 |
was interested in mRNA vaccine risk…no one…some say this was criminal. what is your view? was this benevolence or a focus only on election? did anyone care about the safety?
it is a rhetorical question for we know NO was was interested in safety. Just elections and camera and making money…for boy did people make money.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
I was there. OWS was run from the 7th floor of the HHS building, I interacted with folk there, in it, and Moderna was also run from the 7th floor. I dealt with Moncef directly.
All, most of all they told Trump was duplicitous, those involved, lies, half-truths, etc. and he just had no clue. He trusted them. He lapped it up. You heard him on the podium. I think this chapter tells us really nothing new.
But reminds us about the criminality of it all. The Malone Bourla RFK Jr. Bancel Pfizer Moderna Sahin Kariko et al. mRNA vaccine saved NOT ONE life, never worked and saved NOT one life…Trump is wrong then and now to state that it saved lives. It failed and killed! no study, not one, no comparative effectiveness RCT placebo controlled study has ever shown that the vaccine worked. Not one! In adults or children, that it reduced deaths or severe adverse events, hospitalization etc. The studies Pfizer and Moderna gave FDA that the FDA knew it, was fraud…the data was fraudulent, all of it and the FDA under Hahn took it and went along with it.
Can someone try suing me for what I just stated but just be prepared that I was there, and I will bring my evidence based medicine self…you walk with what you wish.
Your, and you know who you are, your mRNA vaccine killed Americans and global people and you knew it. I say in some sense, deliberate. You are criminals and I hope as do others, that you stand trial one day in proper legal settings.
END
The H1N1 ‘swine flu’ pandemic in 2009 under Obama’s administration was as fake & fraud as the COVID under Trump!!! You should know, still today, I can say, not one ‘swine flu’ patient 2009 HAD swine
flu, not one!! 2009 swine flu H1N1 pandemic was never a pandemic, not even epidemic, it was MADE up…I challenge anyone, any CDC official, NIH, any doctor, on the 2009 swine flu fraud!
| Dr. Paul AlexanderMay 18 |
Let me begin by telling you something you can take to the bank…
almost none, maybe not one person, in the 2009 swine flu pandemic (it was never a pandemic, not even an epidemic) had ‘SWINE flu’…it was all a lie in 2009, the 2009 swine flu pandemic was made up, a lie, and yes, using testing, and today, CDC still cannot show us evidence that people had swine flu in 2009…no one who was a ‘swine flu’ patient, had swine flu…I want CDC to challenge me on that…it was made up, just like how almost none, maybe all who the CDC and NIH and medical doctors told us/you in 2020, 2021, 2022 etc. had COVID, actually had COVID.
The 2009 swine flu pandemic was a complete fraud! Made up, manufactured like COVID.
And Obama figured it out fast, he understood the deepstate dark unseen hand was seeking to hang it on his neck and bring COVID then, via H1N1, he told them fuck off and he shut it down, shut down CDC response, he shut it all down…
so how come they got Trump to bite and take COVID in 2020? I argue they studied Trump well and knew he would fall for the lies and OWS and deadly untested unsafe Malone Bourla Maoderna et al. mRNA vaccine…they understood the psychology of Trump and knew he would believe them…he actually did. Obama told them fuck off with H1N1 in 2009.
END
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
The Question This Week Is “Does Trump Go Back To The Well On Bombing Iran?”
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 09:10 AM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
Hormuz diary, day 79. The strait remains functionally closed and global crude and refined product stocks are rapidly drawing down. President Trump has returned from Beijing after much bonhomie with no concrete commitments from China to help get shipping moving again, though the American side has claimed that China wants the strait to re-open with no tolls imposed and has committed to buy at least $17bn of US agricultural products annually.
Trump is running out of patience, and has told Iran that “the clock is ticking” before US strikes resume. Asia is running out of fuel.
Iran has established a new protocol for allowing ships to pass the strait. Araghchi says the strait is “open to all commercial ships”, the IRGC says that Chinese ships are being allowed to pass, Iranian state TV said that “more than 30 ships” had been allowed to pass between Wednesday and Thursday, and that that number is set to accelerate. Nobody seems to know how many of the 30 ships were not Chinese.
George Prokopiou’s Karolos ran the strait with its tracking system switched off, carrying a cargo of 1 million barrels of Iraqi crude bound for India. A Panamanian-flagged vessel managed by Japanese refiner ENEOS snuck through on Friday, and several other ships also passed through Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman.
Bond markets are no longer taking this all in their stride. Yields on US 10s rose 24bps last week, 10-year Gilt yields lifted 26bps. Last week’s hotter-than-expected April US CPI reading of 3.8% conspired with PPI ex food and energy of 5.2%, and strong payrolls data the week before to see the 5y-5y inflation swap creep up to 2.47%. The OIS curve says rate hikes, Kevin Warsh’s ascension as Fed Chair notwithstanding. Gundlach says the Fed can’t possibly cut. Bloomberg says traders are eyeing a tipping point towards a new era of higher yields. A graph of the 10-year says that the tipping point came all the way back in 2022 for those who were paying attention. CPI has now been above target for more than five years. Inflation can-kicking in the 1970s gave us the Volcker Shock later on.
The S&P500 closed down 1.25% on Friday. Futures are -0.7% this morning. Asian stocks are getting battered. The DXY is bid and high beta FX is being offered. Even the hitherto immortal Aussie housing market is beginning to creak as auction clearance rates hit their lowest levels since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020. The headwind of higher rates and lower real incomes is now compounded by tax changes aimed at discouraging investors. Has Australia picked up on the end of neoliberalism zeitgeist to shift from a Thatcherite home-owning democracy to Xi Jinping-style common prosperity where “houses are for living in”? Is there no-one left to buy after government became the liquidity of last resort through first home buyer co-ownership programs last year?
While markets fret over the outlook, the question this week is “does Trump go back to the well on bombing Iran?” Einstein said that doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results is the definition of insanity; Oscar Wilde said that consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative. CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper says the Iranian military industrial base is 90% degraded and Scott Bessent says that Iranian crude is going to have to go back to the well as the US blockade brings shut-ins ever closer. The CIA says Iran still has 70% of its pre-war missiles and can hold out under blockade for months. Who is talking their own book? Is the US government as faction-ridden as the Iranian government is supposed to be?
In the meantime, escalation risks mount. A drone struck close to the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant over the weekend and Saudi Arabia reportedly intercepted three drones directed at its own territory. Ukraine is stepping up attacks on targets deep inside Russia even as Russia pounds Ukrainian territory. Ukraine mounted its largest attack on the Moscow region in more than a year, targeting high-value military assets, oil facilities, Moscow’s main airport, and a sanctioned semiconductor factory. Zelenskyy saying there has been a “shift in the balance” on the battlefield.
As we sit here in 2026 Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ originally been planned to conclude within weeks is now in its fifth year. In uncomfortable similarity, the US’s 4-6 week ‘targeted military campaign’ is now in its 12th week. Finding common ground in peace negotiations continues to prove elusive in both cases, making stalemate the path of least resistance. Central banks and many governments continue to base forecasts on a near-term resolution in Iran that sees the Strait of Hormuz fully re-open to shipping. Seemingly everybody has a Schlieffen Plan where they will be home by Christmas.
Financial markets are no different. While markets might be waiting for the restart of a bombing campaign in Iran to send physical crude prices and prompt spreads sharply higher (and stock prices sharply lower), for physical supply chains in Asia getting back to the (oil) well becomes more pressing by the day. Hot war is certainly bad, but a grinding stalemate would be disaster enough.
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS COMMENTARIES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
NIGERIA/USA
Washington’s Joint Operation Against ISIS In Nigeria Sends A Message To The Sahelian Alliance
Saturday, May 16, 2026 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The scenario of a US-backed Nigerian anti-terrorist intervention in Mali is becoming increasingly likely.
Trump announced over the weekend that the US and Nigeria carried out a joint operation against ISIS’ second-highest figure, which his counterpart Bola Ahmed Tinubu disclosed took place in the northeast Lake Chad Basin where its ally Boko Haram recently killed over 20 Chadian troops. This is the US’ second military operation in Nigeria after Trump authorized bombing ISIS in Northwest Nigeria on Christmas Day, thus demonstrating the continued expansion of its anti-terrorist cooperation with this new BRICS partner.
The significance of this observation shouldn’t be downplayed since it also sends a message to the Sahelian Alliance, whose de facto Malian leader is embroiled in its own anti-terrorist struggle after radical Islamists and Tuareg separatists kicked the government out of the northeast earlier this month. Although Mali is allied with neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, the latter of which borders Northern Nigeria where the US struck terrorists twice in less than six months, neither have come to its rescue.
That’s because they too are embroiled in their own anti-terrorist struggles against the same radical Islamists in Burkina Faso’s case, “Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin” (JNIM), and ISIS in Niger’s. These groups importantly occupy most of their border with Mali as well, thus impeding joint military operations even if they were greenlit. Recently, Nigeria intimated that it might intervene in Mali, and French media revealed that their country is already involved there. Here are three background briefings:
* 26 December 2025: “Why’d Trump Bomb ISIS In Nigeria On Christmas?”
* 3 May 2026: “The Latest Malian Crisis Risks Spiraling Into A Regional War”
* 11 May 2026: “French Media Confirmed That Paris Is Backing Ukraine In Mali”
To elaborate on their relevance to the joint US-Nigerian anti-terrorist operation, they shed light on just how close their security cooperation has become in less than half a year’s time, thus lending credence to the Nigerian Defense Minister’s intimation earlier this month that it might intervene in Mali. In that scenario, the US would likely play a public role as well, even if only limited to sharing intelligence and launching drone strikes from its reported bases in neighboring Ghana or nearby Cote d’Ivoire.
Meanwhile, Nigeria could only reach Mali via either Niger, via Burkina Faso by means of Cote d’Ivoire, or via Ghana, but the first two aren’t expected to authorize transit unless Niger – perceived as the Sahelian Alliance’s weakest link – breaks rank with its allies. As for the Ghanaian route, JNIM isn’t as active in the part of Mali on the other side of the border, so Nigeria would either have to receive permission to transit to the northeast or it might wait to unilaterally intervene till Bamako is seriously threatened to captured.
However the Nigerian intervention scenario might unfold, the top takeaway from the US’ joint operation with Nigeria is that it’s becoming increasingly likely whether the Sahelian Alliance authorizes it or not, which thus suggests that behind-the-scenes talks might already be underway with them. The West wants to break this bloc’s unity so that its countries resubordinate themselves to France, and if this can’t be achieved via diplomatic means under terrorist pressure, then military ones might be soon employed.
end
CANADA
only Canada would be stupid enough to sell off its most vital asset: Trans Mountain Pipeline:
Canada Rethinks Selling Its Crown Jewel Pipeline
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,
- The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline.
- Since the expanded TMX pipeline launched in 2024, exports to Asia—especially China—have surged, with up to 70% of shipments from British Columbia heading to Asian buyers by late 2025.
- Officials now see TMX as a highly profitable “strategically important asset,” with potential for further expansion
The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline and keep it state-owned amid a surge in appetite for Canadian crude to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels.
“The prior narrative had been that this should be returning to private hands,” the head of the government entity that owns Trans Mountain said at an event this week, as quoted by the Financial Post.
“That was in a different market and that was in a different time,” Elizabeth Wademan also said.
Indeed, this is a very different market from what it was when the government in Ottawa had to step in and buy Trans Mountain from Kinder Morgan, which quit the project under relentless pressure from climate activists who used environmental regulations to strangle the expansion project. The price tag for the nationalization deal, which took place in 2018, was about $3.3 billion, and the Trudeau government quickly signaled it would start looking for buyers as soon as possible.
By 2024, the cost of the pipeline expansion project had swelled to about $23 billion, but the project, somewhat surprisingly, was completed, and the expanded pipeline launched in May of that year, running at three times its original capacity or a total of 890,000 barrels daily.
The destination for these barrels was the vast Asian market, as a way to diversify away from the U.S., which has for decades been pretty much the only foreign market for Canadian crude—and an export conduit, with the oil transported from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, and from there, to markets overseas. With the new TMX, Canadian crude producers got a new, more convenient channel to Asian energy buyers.
It did not take long for the effect to be felt: between the launch of the expanded pipe and spring 2025, the average flow rates for shipment to China reached 207,000 barrels daily. That compares with an average of 173,000 barrels daily pumped to the United States. Since spring, the shift has become even more marked. By October 2025, as much as 70% of Canadian crude exported from the British Columbia coast was going to China. Now, everyone else in Asia is also interested.
The Trans Mountain pipeline is a “strategically important asset”, Trans Mountain Corp.’s Wademan said this week, suggesting the project could be expanded further, with more “energy corridors” that would add value for Canadians, the Financial Post reported.
“Let’s look where we are, and look how important energy security is, and look how incredibly profitable this asset is; there’s a lot,” Wademan said.
“There’s a lot of merit to holding onto it and realizing that full value.”
Indeed, it would be profitable for the federal government to hold on to the infrastructure as the price of Canadian crude inches closer to $90 per barrel—a level hardly seen as possible just five years ago, and even more recently. TMX has turned into a game-changer for the Canadian oil industry and it will be in the center of the “golden opportunity” that Canada has to become a bigger global player in both oil and gas.
Canada has a “golden opportunity” to become a major global oil player as the war in the Middle East limits sources of crude and natural gas, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said earlier this month, adding that “The cost of missing this train will be incredible.” It seems the Canadian government is acutely aware of that risk and plans to avoid it and make the best of the country’s resources in a fascinating departure from the previous government’s focus on emission reduction and alternative energy.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1630 UP 0.0008
USA/ YEN 158.83 UP 0.262 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3382 UP 0.0035 OR 35 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3745 UP 0.0005 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.86 PTS OR 0.09%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 287.75 PTS OR 1.11%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.71%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 287.55 PTS OR 1.11%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.86 OR 0.09%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.71%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 662.29 PTS OR 1.08%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4538.10
silver:$75.16
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.58 PLUS 3 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 72.52 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 33 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.155 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.822 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.693 UP 12 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.351 UP 12 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early MONDAY MORNING: 99.16 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.505% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.746% UP 4 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.117 UP 7 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.560 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.904 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.1382 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1648 UP 0.0026 OR 26 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.73 UP 0.060 OR YEN IS DOWN 6 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.1040 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.770 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 13 BASIS pts to 1.3739
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY UP TO 6.8003// ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.8017
TURKISH LIRA: 45.58 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN1 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.986.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.124 DOWN1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.056 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4576.90
SILVER AT 10;00: 77.94
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 127.38 PTS OR 1.26%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 357.25 OR 1.49%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 34.94 PTS PTS OR 0.44%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 132.40 PTS OR 0.75 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 447.42 PTS OR 0.91%
WTI Oil price 103.47 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 108.03 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 72.46 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 39 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.693 UP 12 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.351 UP 12 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1647 UP 0.0026 OR 26 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3423 UP 0.01040 OR 104 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.172 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.794 DOWN 2 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.725 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 4.091 UP 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 158.90 UP0.231 OR YEN DOWN 23 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3741 UP 0.0005 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 106.36
Brent OIL: 109.40
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.606
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 1 PTS to 5.132%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.071 DOWN 1 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.693 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.351 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.22 UP 49 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.58 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 72.46 UP 0 AND 38/100 roubles //
GOLD $4552.70 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 77.13 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 159.95 OR 0.32%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 130.83 PTS OR 0.45%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17,51 UP 0.62 PTS OR 3.36%
GLD: $ 418.55 UP 1.26 PTS OR 0.30%
SLV/ $69.96 PTS UP 0.92 OR OR 1.33%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Renewed Iran Headline Roulette Triggers Market Mayhem: AI Angst, Momo Meltdown, Bitcoin Battered
WRAP UP:
Markets chop to geopolitics while Trump holds off on immediate Iran attack – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 04:14 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries steepen, Crude choppy, Dollar down, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: Trump instructed Hegseth to hold off on the Iran attack that was planned for tomorrow; White House believes updated Iran proposal is not a meaningful improvement & insufficient for a deal; US official tells CNBC the Iranian state media report that US agreed to lift oil sanctions while talks are ongoing are false; Trump warns clock is ticking for Iran; White House believes Iran reports fundamental differences between the Iranian and American texts still remain; Kevin Warsh to be sworn is as next Fed Chair on Friday; UK’s Burnham fully rules out changing Chancellor Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM; NEE to acquire D; Berkshire exits UNH.
- COMING UP: Data: Japanese GDP (Q1), UK Jobs Report (Mar/Apr), Average Earnings (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Canadian CPI (Apr). Events: RBA Minutes (Apr). Speakers: RBA’s Hunter; BoE’s Breeden; ECB’s Lane; Fed’s Waller. Supply: The UK, Germany. Earnings: Home Depot.
- WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include NVDA earnings, FOMC Minutes, UK, Canadian, Japanese and NZ inflation. Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Tech behemoth NVDA the highlight. Click here for the full report.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
- 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
Markets saw choppy trade on Monday as geopolitical headlines dominated price action, with stocks ultimately finishing mixed by the close.
The key development came late in the session after President Trump announced he had called off a planned attack on Iran following requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.
The Truth Social post sent equities and Treasuries higher while crude prices sharply reversed lower, unwinding much of the afternoon strength. Trump said Gulf allies had urged the US to delay military action as “serious negotiations” are now underway and expressed confidence that a deal acceptable to the US could still be reached, including guarantees preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Nonetheless, Trump added that officials remain prepared for a large-scale assault at a moment’s notice should negotiations fail, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated.
In FX, Sterling outperformed and pared some of the politically driven weakness seen recently after Bloomberg reported that Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham — a potential successor to PM Starmer — had fully ruled out changing Chancellor Reeves’ fiscal rules if he were to become Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the Yen and Dollar lagged in volatile trade, with much of the Dollar weakness emerging following Trump’s post.
Gold and silver prices were firmer amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, while the late decline in the Dollar also offered support to precious metals.
US
NAHB: The US NAHB housing market index rose to 37 from 34, and above the expected 35. In the details, all three subcomponents rose three points with current sales conditions at 40 (prev. 37), sales expectations in the next six months at 45 (prev. 42), and traffic of prospective buyers printing 25 (prev. 22). Overall, Oxford Economics notes the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index improved in May but remains at a level consistent with weak housing market activity. Homebuilders became less pessimistic about home sales six months from now, but OxEco thinks that builders will need to work off more of their unsold inventory before we see a notable pickup in single-family housing starts.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 5 TICKS LOWER AT 109-00+
T-notes saw choppy trade amid mixed geopolitics but rally ahead of settlement as Trump holds off on Iran attack for now. At settlement, 2-year -0.8bps at 4.071%, 3-year -0.1bps at 4.143%, 5-year -0.7bps at 4.260%, 7-year +0.2bps at 4.431%, 10-year +0.6bps at 4.603%, 20-year +0.5bps at 5.146%, 30-year +1.2bps at 5.134%,
THE DAY: Treasuries saw choppy trade on Monday as T-notes continued to track swings in crude prices, with the curve steepening modestly. With no tier one US data or Fed speakers on the docket, focus remained firmly on developments in the Middle East.
T-notes gapped lower at the Sunday reopen after oil prices jumped following comments from President Trump over the weekend, warning that “the clock is ticking” for Iran. The move weighed on Treasuries in overnight trade.
However, T-notes reversed through the European morning as crude prices pared from highs, with Treasuries hitting session peaks as oil touched lows. The pressure in crude followed reports from Tasnim suggesting the US had agreed in a new draft text to lift Iranian oil sanctions during negotiations. Al Arabiya also reported that Iran had withdrawn its demand for compensation and agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze rather than a full dismantling of its nuclear programme.
However, reports also suggested fundamental differences between the sides still remain, while the US said Iran’s updated proposal was insufficient to end the war. US officials also denied reports regarding sanctions relief, while President Trump said he was not open to concessions for Tehran following its latest response. The pushback saw oil prices gradually rebound through the US session, pulling T-notes off earlier highs. Further pressure emerged ahead of settlement after Israeli media, citing a US source, reported that a resumption of strikes against Iran was viewed as a matter of when rather than if, helping crude prices extend gains into the close.
However, T-notes rallied around settlement after President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had called off a planned attack on Iran following requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. The headlines sent crude prices sharply lower, reversing much of the afternoon strength. Trump said Gulf allies had urged the US to delay military action as “serious negotiations” are now underway and expressed confidence that a deal acceptable to the US could still be reached, including guarantees preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, Trump added that officials have been instructed to remain prepared for a large-scale assault at a moment’s notice should negotiations fail.
Elsewhere, UK political developments also remained in focus. A spokesperson for Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham fully ruled out changing Chancellor Reeves’ fiscal rules should Burnham become Prime Minister, helping support Gilts after uncertainty over the weekend regarding his fiscal stance.
Looking ahead, the focus this week remains firmly on geopolitics but the 20-year Treasury auction and FOMC Minutes will also be key events for rate markets.
SUPPLY
Notes
- US to sell USD 16bln of 20-year bonds on May 20th; to settle June 1st; to sell USD 19bln of 10-year TIPS; to settle May 29th
Bills
- US sold 3-month bills at a high rate of 3.600%, B/C 3.17x; Sold 6-month bills at a high rate of 3.615%, B/C 3.07x
- US to sell USD 85bln of 6-week bills on May 19th (prev. 80bln)
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Pricing: Dec 16.3bps (prev. 16.5bps)
- EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 123bln (prev. USD 120bln) on May 15th
- SOFR at 3.55% (prev. 3.56%), volumes at USD 3.157tln (prev. USD 3.115tln) on May 15th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 7.19bln (prev. 0.65bln) across 21 counterparties (prev. 5) on May 18th
- NY Fed T-Bill Purchases (1-4 month): Accepts USD 6.58bln of USD 41.18bln offered; Offer-to-cover 6.26x
CRUDE
WTI (N6) SETTLED USD 3.36 HIGHER AT 104.38/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLED USD 2.84 HIGHER AT 112.10/BBL
The crude complex was firmer to start the week, and saw choppy trade in mixed Middle East reporting. In the European morning, WTI and Brent hit lows of USD 98.60/bbl and USD 106.87/bbl, respectively, after a couple of positive US/Iran updates. Firstly, Tasnim sources reported that, unlike their previous texts, the Americans have agreed in the new text to lift Iran’s oil sanctions during the negotiation period, while Al Arabiya reported Iran has agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantling, and working on a condition transfer of enriched uranium to Russia instead of the US. However, after benchmarks printed these troughs, it has been one-way traffic higher since, to pare all losses, and more, to settle around highs. Behind the move, were a couple of reports pushing back on the earlier constructive rhetoric we had. Al Jazeera, citing a source, said Iran has days, not weeks, to offer progress to the US to break the deadlock, and Trump is losing patience with the progress of talks, while Tasnim noted fundamental differences between the Iranian and American texts still remain. Continuing to add to the moves, a senior US official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios that Iran has given an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal. Into the settlement, which spurred benchmarks to peaks, Israel press, citing a US source, said that an additional American strike on Iran “is not a question of whether but of when”. As such, traders await any further update and the next risk catalyst.
(20:20BST/15:20EDT) NOTE
After the settlement, US President Trump posted on Truth Social that he has called off the planned attack on Iran tomorrow following requests from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar. The news saw oil prices tumble, wiping out the majority of the gains seen this afternoon. Trump said that the Middle Eastern allies asked him to hold off on attacks as serious negotiations are now taking place, and that they believe a deal will be made, one that is acceptable to the US. Trump said the deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran. Although he has called off the attack for now, Trump added he has instructed officials to be prepared to go ahead with a full, large-scale assault on Iran at a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable deal is not reached.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.08% at 7,403, NDX -0.45% at 26,091, DJI +0.32% at 49,686, RUT -0.61% at 2,776.
SECTORS: Energy +1.81%, Consumer Staples +1.34%, Financials +1.21%, Real Estate +1.14%, Health +0.42%, Communication Services +0.24%, Utilities +0.05%, Materials -0.14%, Consumer Discretionary -0.20%, Industrials -0.42%, Technology -0.97%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.58% at 5,857, Dax 40 +1.24% at 24,248, FTSE 100 +1.26% at 10,324, CAC 40 +0.44% at 7,987, FTSE MIB -0.91% at 48,669, IBEX 35 +0.75% at 17,755, PSI +1.21% at 9,143, SMI +0.29% at 13,258, AEX +0.52% at 1,016.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Regeneron (REGN) melanoma combo fails Phase 3 primary endpoint.
- Ford (F) plans to launch seven new vehicle models in Europe by 2029.
- NextEra Energy (NEE) is discussing a mostly stock deal for Dominion Energy (D) that would value the Co. at about USD 76/shr, or around USD 66bln.
- Publicis agreed to buy LiveRamp (RAMP) in an all-cash USD 2.2bln deal.
- BofA reinstated coverage of ServiceNow (NOW) with a ‘Buy’ rating and a PT of USD 130.
- In latest 13-F filing, Berkshire (BRK.B) exits UnitedHealth (UNH) position.
- In latest 13-F filing, Elliott builds Bio-Rad (BIO) stake.
- Dell (DELL) said it added 1,000 customers for AI servers in Q1, its target is traditional corporate clients’ now has 5,000 clients for AI server with Nvidia (NVDA) chips.
- Meta (META) to layoff 10% of global workforce on May 20th in three batches globally, and tells employees ‘many leaders will announce org changes’; to move 7k people to new initiatives related to AI workflows and eliminate managerial roles.
- Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Huang reiterates demand for memory is outpacing capacity. China has to decide how much to protect the market; It is up to China to decide on AI chips; Looks forward to China being a more open market. Did not discuss H200 chips with Chinese officials (echoes what Trump said).
FX
The Dollar Index was weaker to start the week, to the benefit of all G10 peers as the Middle East dominated the tape, and led the way for sentiment throughout. The most recent, and arguably most important, just came from US President Trump on Truth supported risk-on trade, seeing the Dollar plummet and stocks reverse afternoon losses. Recapping, the President said he has instructed Hegseth to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for tomorrow after Saudi, the UAE and Qatar requested him to do so as serious talks are now taking place. Trump added that he instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment’s notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached. Whilst that was the big mover on Monday amongst other geopolitical headlines, it was a day that lacked tier 1 US data or Fed speak. On the latter, Kevin Warsh is to be sworn in as the next Fed Chair on Friday.
Ex-JPY, G10s were firmer vs. the Buck, and benefited from the aforementioned weakness and risk tone, as opposed to anything currency specific. However, for the Pound, focus continues to surround the political picture and PM Starmer’s future. Meanwhile, the potential challenger Andy Burnham fully ruled out changing Chancellor Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM. Reminder, at the weekend his team had left it open whether he might change them in future, but tonight his spokesperson told Bloomberg he is explicitly ruling out any changes to the existing fiscal rules. Crucially, Burnham is now also ruling out exempting defence spending from the fiscal rules to spend more on the military.
As mentioned, JPY was flat with USD/JPY trading between 158.61-159.08 as participants remain wary of possible intervention. On that, Finance Minister Katayama remarked that they are seeing speculative moves in the financial market and need to closely monitor the financial markets. The Finance Minister gave no comment on whether Japan intervened in the FX market, but added will take appropriate action against Forex volatility.
USA DATA RELEASE
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Big Pharma RINO Bill Cassidy Smoked By Trump-Endorsed Candidate In Louisiana Senate Primary
Sunday, May 17, 2026 – 04:55 PM
Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) came in third in Louisiana’s Republican Senate primary on Saturday – marking the first time in nearly 15 years that a sitting US Senator has lost a primary in a regularly scheduled election.
Instead, Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow led with ~45% of the vote, while state Treasurer John Fleming came in second at 28%.
Letlow and Fleming will now face off in a June 27 runoff.
Cassidy was a notable fan of Obamacare, and voted to convict Trump during impeachment over the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot. He also helped sink Casey Means’ nomination for surgeon general, which drew sharp criticism from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr, and his MAHA movement. He’s been labeled a big pharma shill by opponents.
Of note…
- Over $1.2 million in career contributions from the pharmaceutical and health products industry, according to OpenSecrets data, with hundreds of thousands received in recent cycles.
- Pharma executives showered him with donations shortly after he became the top Republican on the Senate HELP Committee in 2023, including $5,800 from Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, $5,000 from Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks, and contributions from other PhRMA board members.
- Opposed key drug pricing reforms aimed at lowering prescription costs, while taking substantial industry money during those periods.
- Received nearly $330,000 from the pharma/health industry in the 2023-2024 cycle alone, ranking him among the top Senate recipients.
The last time a sitting US Senator lost their seat in a primary was in 2012, when longtime Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) lost his Republican primary to Richard Mourdock.
Letlow, meanwhile, is your standard issue conservative. The Louisiana congresswoman has a solidly right-leaning congressional record. She earned Trump’s full backing after Cassidy voted to convict him, and she campaigned on core America First priorities including border security, energy production, and opposition to woke policies.
While critics on the right point to her membership in the more moderate Main Street Caucus, slightly softer Club for Growth scores on spending, and past academic work involving DEI language, these are relatively minor compared to her overall alignment with Republican and MAGA priorities. In the context of Louisiana’s deep-red politics, Letlow represents a clear shift away from Cassidy-style establishment Republicanism toward a more Trump-aligned Senate candidate heading into the June runoff.
END
BONDS
Bonds Are Screaming That Something’s Horribly Wrong
by quoth the raven
Saturday, May 16, 2026 – 7:15
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
As of market close on Friday, the blog’s 26 Stocks To Watch For 2026 are still beating the S&P 500 by 7.9% on an average, equal weighted basis. These names are up more than 16% for the year on the same basis.
This comes after the blog’s 25 Stocks To Watch For 2025 absolutely smashed the S&P 500, beating the index by more than 50% last year.
The week ended on a wild note, with the bond market sending one signal:
Bonds Are Screaming “Something’s Wrong”
🔥
This week I also wrote about why incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is not in an enviable position. He may have just accepted the worst job in global finance at the worst possible moment.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Job Is Impossible
I also explained why I think this recent rally will end in severe panic. I can’t help but have visions that we are in the late stages of a market blowoff top that, as I have detailed this past week, is being driven less by fundamentals and more by mechanical options activity, concentrated speculation, and a level of complacency that tends to emerge near the end of major asset bubbles.
This Rally Ends In Panic
I also put forth the idea that rate hikes could be incoming. We got two horrific datapoints this past week that, when combined with some key comments from days ago, seem to be pushing the Fed closer to rate hikes than they’ve been in a long while.
Time For Rate Hikes
END
D-Day For “Huuuge” Meta Layoffs Looms As AI Job Apocalypse Accelerates
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 08:25 AM
‘D-Day’ for Meta layoffs is quickly approaching, as the Facebook and Instagram owner will slash 10% of its global headcount – or about 8,000 employees – in the initial round as it swaps headcount for GPUs.
Former Meta employee Adel Wu described the current situation on X, saying her millennial and Gen Z friends still at the tech company are currently “either just waiting, hoping to get laid off or extremely anxious because the job is their lifeline.”
Welcome to the accelerating AI job apocalypse, affecting white-collar youngsters with lots of student debt.
Wu described the upcoming Wednesday layoff announcement as “huuge” and noted, “I remember the very first big layoff the night before was almost like doomsday, people were stuffing their bags with free snacks and drinks and chargers.”
Wu’s X post quoted Emily Dreyfuss of The San Francisco Standard, who provided additional color in a note about the incoming layoffs:
Next week, Meta is expected to lay off 8,000 employees(opens in new tab), roughly 10% of its global workforce, with about 500 of those cuts landing in the Bay Area.
They will join a worldwide tally of more than 100,000 tech workers laid off since January, with more on the horizon.
At Meta, employees are anxiously anticipating a 7 a.m. email Wednesday that will tell them their fate.
To these rank-and-file workers, the AI job apocalypse feels like it’s already here. And even as they fear their own replacement, they are being asked by management to use and train the very products that will soon take their jobs.
Dreyfuss quoted an anonymous Meta employee who said, “This is as anxious and stressed as I have ever been at a job.”
“If you’re on a work machine, you are probably being surveilled. But the framing that we are using this to train AI to do everyone’s job and the sort of unapologetic, ‘we’re training your replacement, and we’re not paying you more for it’ approach is just another signal of how little Meta cares about the humans that it employs,” the employee told Dreyfuss.
We previewed the coming job apocalypse for Meta in recent weeks:
- Meta Plans 20% Layoffs To Divert Capital To Data Centers
- Meta To Unleash First Wave Of Mass Layoffs May 20 As It Eliminates 10% Of Its Workers
… and this comes as CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been investing hundreds of billions of dollars into AI as he seeks to dramatically reshape his company’s core business around AI after Metaverse failures.
Meta is not alone: Amazon recently trimmed 30,000 corporate employees, representing nearly 10% of its white-collar workers. In February, the fintech company Block fired nearly half of its staff.
Layoffs. fyi, a website tracking tech job cuts worldwide, reported that 73,212 employees have lost their jobs so far this year. For all of 2024, the figure was 153,000.
Goldman laid out in 2023 just how many jobs AI will take. That number is absolutely scary for white-collar America, where many are saturated with student debt.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 18, 2026 Issue 7744 | Independent View of the News |
| The US 2-year hit 4.084%. The 30-year hit 5.134%, which surpassed the Biden Inflation peak of 5.112% on October 19, 2023. USMs hit a low of 110 18/32 (-1 29/32, 13:55 ET). June Gasoline rallied as much as 10.53 cents (+2.92%); WTI Oil rallied as much as $4.61 (+4.56%). With bonds and notes tumbling to multi-month lows, inflation concerns mounting, and an overhang of trillions of dollars of expiry May calls, stock declined, ex-the DJTA, on Friday morning. Fangs got hammered because traders great and small were massively long the bubble stocks for the May expiry. @sentimentrader: Producer Price Index just spiked to +9.8% year-over-year. Historically, this has only happened in 16% of months since 1914. When it did, the Dow fell 76% of the time. Median loss: -7.3%. $1 invested during every high-PPI period over 112 years turned into $0.29. https://x.com/sentimentrader/status/2055116047787954499 Large truckers rallied for the 2nd straight session on the SCOTUS decision that state court claims of driver negligence related to injuries cause by truckers are NOT preempted by federal law. The DJTA rallied in the morning on large trucker buying due to brokerage firm upgrades but turned negative after midday. The S&P 500 Index opened sharply little lower on Friday due to the carnage in US debt. It hit a low of 7397.50 at 9:46 ET. Conditioned traders then aggressively bought ESMs and Trading Sardines. The S&P than rallied to 7447.25 at 10:22 ET. Sellers appeared; stocks rolled over. The S&P 500 fell to 7411.01 at 11:54 ET. As most discerning observers would expect, the usual suspects commenced a manipulation of ESM’s and trading sardines for the squeeze on expiring May calls. ESMs steadily rallied until they hit 7475.75 at 14:06 ET. The S&P 500 Index peaked two minutes later. ESMs sank to a daily low of 7409.25 at 16:10 ET. @Hedgeye: Margin debt as a percentage of real GDP soars over 5%. https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2055010627932889266 Positive aspects of previous session Grains prices sank again. The manipulation on expiry May call options commenced at midday. The DJTA rallied 76.77 points. Negative aspects of previous session Bonds and note yields jumped significantly and sank stocks, ex-large land transports. Fangs and AI-related stocks got hammered. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will the US resume attacks on Iran when Trump returns from China? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7420.85 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7454.85 (14:08 ET); 7397.50 (9:46 ET) @disclosetv: Trump says it’s good to have 500,000 foreign Chinese students in the U.S. and for China to purchase U.S. farmland; otherwise, colleges and farm prices would collapse: “I frankly think that it’s good that people come from other countries, and they learn our culture.” https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2055106213004677253 It is critical to remember is Trump made his bones hawking luxury properties to elites. He was near the bottom of two dozen candidates for the 2016 GOP President Nomination. During the 2nd GOP debate Trump inveighed against illegal immigration and the illegal that killed Kate Steinle in SF. Trump then jumped to #1 and rode illegal immigration to the presidency. Treasury Sec Bessent on Saturday announced the IRS is launching audits of financial institutions that facilitated the laundering of Minnesota funds. Should be fun! Kevin Warsh’s first challenge as Fed Chair is to fight inflation – while keeping Trump happy https://trib.al/1MNIWba Axios: Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay, U.S. military vessels and possibly Key West, Fla., 90 miles north of Havana, according to classified intelligence shared with Axios… Cuba has been acquiring attack drones of ‘varying capabilities’ from Russia and Iran since 2023, and has stashed them in strategic locations across the island, U.S. officials say. Within the past month, Cuban officials have sought more drones and military equipment from Russia, the senior U.S. official said. The official cited intelligence intercepts that also indicated Cuban intelligence officials are ‘trying to learn about how Iran has resisted us.'”… CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba on Thursday and bluntly warned officials against engaging in hostilities… “Director Ratcliffe made clear that Cuba can no longer serve as a platform for adversaries to advance hostile agendas in our hemisphere,” that official said… https://www.axios.com/2026/05/17/us-military-drones-cuba Trump on Sunday afternoon: For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!… Axios’ @BarakRavid: Trump tells me “clock is ticking” for Iran and warns of more massive U.S. military attack… Trump told me he still thinks Iran wants a deal and said he is waiting for an updated Iranian proposal, one he said he hopes will be better than the last offer given several days ago. He declined giving a specific deadline for the negotiations with Iran… “We want to make a deal. They are not where we want them to be. They will have to get there or they will be hit badly, and they don’t want that,” Trump told me. (Lather, Rinse, Repeat!) https://www.axios.com/2026/05/17/trump-iran-warning-harder-strikes @NiohBerg: Let me explain something to Trump that I’m sure he knows deep down: The IRGC believes you are weak. They think they can stall for time until you give up. They don’t care about your words because they have seen no action since Early April. You need to destroy them. Today – The really big question is have equity jockeys finally figured out that Mr. Bond is very upset with US inflation. The other questions: How much more upside is there for bond and note yields; and are we getting to the point where yields can burst the historic AI bubble. Nevertheless, the usual suspects are conditioned to play for the Monday rally and the post expiry rally when Expiration Day is down on pressure from expiring calls. Trump is again issuing threats against Iran but with weasel words that suggest TACOs are on the menu. Due to Trump’s threats against Iran, NQMs opened -121.75 and ESMs -23.75 on Sunday night. But they quickly turned positive because traders are used to DJT’s Iran act by now. But the 2-year not hit 4.082% and the 30-year hit 5.131% on Sunday night. ESMs and NQMs then sank. ESMs are 36.25; NQMs are -220.50; WTI oil is +$1.31; gasoline is +0.83c at 20:28 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6921; 100-day MA: 6913; 150-day MA: 6865; 200-day MA: 6780 DJIA 50-day MA: 47,989;100-day MA: 48,562; 150-day MA: 48,115; 200-day MA: 47,458 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (7408.50 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6658.09 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7351.60 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7463.52 triggers a buy signal California sees massive surge in Republican votes as more than 900k ballots already returned https://trib.al/DFHvPLh @Badhombre: Bill Cassidy went from an incumbent U.S. Senator running for a third term to finishing third in his primary and failing to qualify for a runoff. This is perhaps the most humiliating thing to happen to an American politician since heifer Liz Cheney was disemboweled in her primary. The lesson in both cases is that voting to impeach Trump is not a winning career strategy for a Republican in deep red states. (Also, don’t be a stooge for Big Pharma!) Dem Michigan congressional candidate Shelby Campbell roasted for posting unhinged twerking videos https://trib.al/OIJTK8E SF man arrested for allegedly stealing from Walgreens 27 times for $40K of merchandise https://trib.al/FTGsxSr @brivael: Today I deconstruct deconstruction. Deconstruction is the most effective mental virus ever devised against a civilization. It was manufactured in France between 1966 and 1980 by three men: Foucault, Derrida, Deleuze. It was exported to the United States, hybridized with American racial puritanism, and returned thirty years later under the name of wokism to paralyze the entire West. Here’s how it works, and why it must be destroyed. The thesis is simple. Every truth is nothing but a disguised power relation. Every sacred text, every law, every science, every norm, every hierarchy, every identity, every institution actually conceals a domination. To deconstruct is to reveal the power dynamic beneath the veneer of truth. It’s to tear off the mask. It’s to “unmask.”…. A society that questions its norms remains standing. A society that believes its norms are *nothing but* domination collapses. Because it can no longer defend anything. No more borders, no more laws, no more science, no more language, no more history, no more biology, no more family. Everything becomes suspect. Everything becomes negotiable. Everything becomes “constructed therefore deconstructible.”… Second reason. The virus is *non-falsifiable*. If you defend a norm, it’s because you’re the oppressor. If you deny being an oppressor, that’s proof of your unconscious privilege. If you cite facts, your facts are contaminated by the power that produced them. If you cite reason, reason itself is white, male, Western. There is no possible exit. The system is designed to make any objection inadmissible by definition. That’s exactly the structure of a cult. And that’s exactly what has taken hold in universities, HR departments, media, administrations, and corporate boards for the past twenty years. Third reason. The virus self-refutes but does not self-destruct… Because it has never sought coherence. It seeks political effectiveness. And its political effectiveness is immense… Fourth reason. The virus produces diminished humans… It has confused critical intelligence with critical posturing. It is sterile by construction. A mind fed on deconstruction is a mind that no longer knows how to build anything. Fifth reason, the gravest. A civilization stands on three pillars. The belief that a truth is accessible to reason. The belief that a good can be distinguished from an evil. The belief that an inheritance deserves to be passed on. Deconstruction has methodically dynamited all three. Not out of malice. Out of intellectual play, fascination with suspicion, hatred of the bourgeoisie that nurtured its prophets. But the result is there. A civilization that no longer believes in its truth, nor in its good, nor in its inheritance does not defend itself. It apologizes while awaiting the end…. https://x.com/brivael/status/2055414755435889086 | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING DR WILLIAMS…
FDA Covid Crimes & Injectable Weight Loss Drugs – Dr. Basima Williams
By Greg Hunter On May 16, 2026 In Political Analysis29 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
There was a bombshell Senate Hearing this past week that revealed the FDA ignored major warning signals just before the Biden Administration mandated them. In the hearing May 13, Senator Ron Johnson summed it up by saying, “There were around 280 deaths caused by vaccines in VARES (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System) since its inception in 1990. . .There were a massive number of claims coming into VARES. In 2021, over 21,000 CV19 vaccine deaths were reported in VARES. . .. They were warned how they were analyzing VARES data and how it would mask and hide safety signals. . .. There were 25 safety signals, including sudden cardiac death, Pulmonary Infarction, Bell’s Palsy, different types of strokes, month after month, after month. . .. The FDA lied to the American public and said they saw no safety signals. . .. They blamed the unvaccinated for continuing the pandemic and said we need to mandate this. . .. thousands of people are permanently disabled or possibly lost their lives because our FDA hid the fact that there were safety signals screaming at them with the Covid injection.” This is the definition of FDA Covid Crime.”
(Senator Johnson does a short 8-minute summary interview on his 5.13.26 Senate Hearing here.)
The numbers are in the millions of deaths caused (so far) by the CV19 injections globally, and at least six million permanently disabled in the US alone. 270 million Americans took the CV19 jab. What the so-called “Deep State” did was criminal. And, yes, Senator Ron Johnson blamed the Deep State and wants to know, “Who is running the Deep State.” He said this in his Senate hearing.
By the way, a three-year Harvard study in 2011 on VARES said less than 1% of adverse vaccine events were reported to VARES. So, even though the numbers the FDA and CDC were seeing were huge, it was a fraction of the real deaths and disabilities that are still going on today.
Dr. Basima Williams is board certified in Family and Functional Medicine. She did NOT recommend the CV19 shots to her patients. Dr. Williams says, “Immediately after the CV19 vaccine was introduced, and we know now this was not true, we were told the mRNA would go into the cell and create something. In this case, it was spike protein. In theory, it was supposed to fizzle out and not continue doing that. Then, the body would promote an antibody response to the spike protein. . .. (Now, science shows, the CV19 vaccine kept making spike proteins and never stopped.) Back then, we were sold on hurry up and get your vaccine, and not just get this vaccine, but hurry up and get this vaccine not just to save yourself, but all your loved ones. In essence, they were working on urgency and making you feel bad if you didn’t get your vaccine.”
Dr. Williams is still seeing the fallout with new patients who got the CV19 injections. Dr. Williams says, “It breaks my heart that we are having to deal with all the after-effects. From a functional medicine perspective, we have so many patients that are dealing with shortness of breath with the cardiovascular injuries, or the significant fatigue that is ongoing because of either post Covid or post Covid vaccine side effects. These are quality of life issues. Now, you can’t walk up a staircase without being short of breath, or without being too tired. For a lot of women, there are periods, cycles and infertility challenges that are new to them since this whole Covid thing started. So, we are dealing with that from a functional medical perspective because the regular doctors have no idea what to do with it. . .. Unfortunately, so many people who got the Covid shots got Covid anyway. My job was not to vaccinate you for it. . .. My job was to get you ready. So, when you got it, your body was working optimally. It’s kind of like getting your army ready for war.”
Dr. Williams has a caution for people using all the injectable weight loss products you are seeing on TV. Dr. Williams says, “The peptides for weight loss are very much being mismanaged. Unfortunately, this is a way for the providers to make a lot of money, and there is very little guidance for overall medical care. So, when we prescribe a peptide like Ozempic, we provide a full nutritional course. . .. What is happening now is people are being prescribed these medications without proper counseling. . .. When you are eating less crap and losing weight, you are just going to end up what we call ‘skinny fat.’ When you are skinny fat, you are malnourished. So, you are going to have the thin peeling nails, or the loss of hair, or the super saggy skin.”
Dr. Williams thinks the injectable weight loss drugs are safe. It is the malnutrition that can come with this type of rapid weight loss that is the biggest problem she sees.
There is much more in the 46-minute interview.
To get a “Medical Emergency Kit” from The Wellness Company click here. (Scroll down to the medical kits.) You get $45 off (15%) and free shipping with promo code USAWATCHDOG
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with Dr. Basima Williams, a board certified Family and Functional Medicine expert who talks about the fall out for the CV19 bioweapon vax and cautions on injectable rapid weight loss drugs.
After the Interview:
Dr. Williams has a website called BeingFunctional.com.
You can follow Dr. Williams on Facebook and Instagram.
harveyorganblog.com 
