EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,552.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/18/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 05/20/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 1
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 20
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 11
905 C ADM 32
TOTAL: 32 32
MONTH TO DATE: 4,696
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2026: 32 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 3,200 OZ or 0.0995 TONNES
total notices so far: 4696 contracts FOR 469,600 OZ OR 14.6065 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES:123 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR .615 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5628 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 28.140 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY OUR STRONG 89 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.455 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.575 MILLION OZ/.//
SUMMARY OF OUR MAY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 49.175 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 445,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.575 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON EARLY DURING THE MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX.
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27800 OZ/ (0.8646 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 32 CONTRACTS OR 3200 OZ (0.0995 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 11.676 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 28.245 TONNES OF GOLD.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 32 CONTRACTS/3200 OZ// 0.0995 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3 OCCASIONS: 11.676 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 28.248 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 61.29 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG 900 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 101,952.
EFP ISSUANCE 453 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 453 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 900 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 453 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF447 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.09
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 2/235 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $0.09
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MAY 19 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.01 PTS OR 0.92%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 122.67 PTS OR 0.48%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 75.45 PTS OR 0.12%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .40%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8035
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8064 Oil UP TO 108.03 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 110.32 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.8035) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8064 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 440 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 379,360 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET LATE LAST MONTH AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING MONDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MAY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $4.90).
WE THUS HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 635 CONTRACTS (OR 1.975 TONNES) DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, EQUATING TO 1075 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A ZERO CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.YESTERDAY, BY FAR HAD THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: THREE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 3754 CONTRACTS OR 375,400OZ OR 11.676 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: THREE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 3754 CONTRACTS, 375,400 OZ OR 11.676 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MAY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 635 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE ($4.90). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MAY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS FINALLY A SMALL SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 656 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS NOW IN FULL FORCE WITH TODAY’S RAID AND CAPITULATION ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 3RD ISSUANCE FOR 11.676 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 13.676 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12 AND MAY 18.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 3200 OZ (0.0995 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 375,400 OZ OR 11.676 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 28.248 TONNESS
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MAY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $4.90)
WE HAD NO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
MONDAY NIGHT//TUESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $4.90
WE HAD A 10,882 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 635 CONTRACTS OR 63,500 OZ OR 1.975 TONNES
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 19 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 2 i) HSBC 32,118.849 oz 1000 kilobars) ii) Out of Manfra: 32,151.000 oz total: 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 32 CONTRACTS OR 3200 OZ 0.0995 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 634 Contracts 63,400 OZ 1.972 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 4696 notices 469,600 oz 14.6065 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 2
i) HSBC 32,118.849 oz
1000 kilobars)
ii) Out of Manfra: 32,151.000 oz
total: 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars)
adjustments: 1
customer to dealer; Delaware 4019.735 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI STANDS AT 666 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 565 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 597 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 32 CONTRACTS OR 3200 OZ (0.0995 TONNES)
UNDERWENT A SMALL QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 8864 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 192,597
JULY GAINED 490 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 1727.
We had 32 contracts filed for today representing 3200oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 32 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 11 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,696) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (666 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 32 x 100 oz per contract) equals 532,800 OZ OR (16.572 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our THREE exchange for risk issuance for 375,400 oz or 11.676 tonnes//new standing for gold/May again advances to 28.248 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,696) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY( 616 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 32 x 100 oz per contract) equals 532,800 OZ OR (16.578 Tonnes of gold) plus we must add our THREE exchange for risk issuances of 375,400 oz or 11.676 tonnes/new standing advances to 28.248 tonness
new total of gold standing in MAY ADVANCES TO 28.248 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY 28.248 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
confirmed volume FRIDAY confirmed 188,390// fair// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
the number provided do not match from yesterday!!!
total pledged gold: 1,900,154,312 oz 59.10 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,900.154.312 tonnes oz 59.10 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 28,713,696.972oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,705,347 OZ 488.502 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 13,008,349.350 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,805,193 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
429.39 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 19
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of Loomis: 300,494.800 oz ii_ Out of Delaware: 19,923.967 oz total withdrawal 320,418.767 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 entries i) Into Stonex; 49,163.830 oz total deposit 49,163.830 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 1 ENTRIES i) Into Asahi 560,372.200 oz total deposit 560,372.200 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 123 CONTRACT(S) (0.615 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 887 Contracts (4.435 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5,628 contracts 28.140 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
1 entries
1 entries
i) Into Stonex; 49,163.830 oz
total deposit 49,163.830 oz
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES
i) Into Asahi 560,372.200 oz
total deposit 560,372.200 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) Out of Loomis: 300,494.800 oz
ii_ Out of Delaware: 19,923.967 oz
total withdrawal 320,418.767 oz
adjustments 2 customer to dealer
a) Brinks: customer to dealer: 89,663.430 oz
b) Manfra: customer to dealer 80,224.300 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.565 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 315.880 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2026 OI: 1010 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 57 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 32 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 89 CONTRACT OR 0.445 MILLION OZ UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 196 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2865 OI CONTRACTS
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 880 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 73,570 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 123 or 0.615 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume MONDAY; 63,818 fair
AND NOW MAY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5628 X5,000 oz = 28.140 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1010) AND the number of notices served upon today (123 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2026 contract month: (5,628 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (1010) minus number of notices served upon today (123)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY..contract month equating to 32.575 MILLION OZ.+
NEW STANDING ADVANCES T0: 32.575 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 81.565 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 140.287/315.880 million: 44.33
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAY 19 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.85 TONNES
MAY 18 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 15 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $118.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 14 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 13 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 12 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.515 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.995 TONNES
MAY 8 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.283 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.480TONNES
MAY 7 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.853 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.197TONNES
MAY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $124.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.718 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.05TONNES
MAY 5 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 4 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $106.65 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
APRIL 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.142 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.195 TONNES
APRIL 29/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $45.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $85.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 27/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.91 TONNES
APRIL 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP 26.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 11.90TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.783 TONNES
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1038.85 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
MAY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.39: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.086 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
MAY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $7.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.9000 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3,79: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.448 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.524 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $3,62: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.086 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.087 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.990 MILLION OZ
MAY 11 WITH SILVER UP $5.10: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.995 MILLION OZ OF SILVER PUT OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.814 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.689 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.809 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.26: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $3.75: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.724 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.21: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.05: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP $2.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.905 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.338 MILLION OZ
APRIL 30 WITH SILVER UP $2.03: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.991 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.243MILLION OZ
APRIL 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.95: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.39: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 24 WITH SILVER UP 0.92: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,23MILLION OZ
APRIL 23WITH SILVER DOWN $2.35: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.489 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488,773MILLION OZ
APRIL 22 WITH SILVER UP 1.43: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262MILLION OZ
aPRIL 21 WITH SILVER DOWN 3.71: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17 WITH SILVER UP $3.09: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.900 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.132 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.477 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.579 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 488.338 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 272 and 271
Ted Oakley//272
MUST VIEW…
5. COMMODITY REPORT/GOLD
AGNICO EAGLE/HOPE BAY
Hope Bay approved at 400,000 production for a minimum of 11 years. Going underground!!
AgnicoEagle – AGNICO EAGLE APPROVES HOPE BAY INVESTMENT DECISION; STRONG ECONOMIC RETURNS WITH EXPECTED ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION OF OVER 400,000 OUNCES
TORONTO, May 19, 2026 /CNW/ – Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE: AEM) (TSX: AEM) (“Agnico Eagle” or the “Company”) is pleased to report a positive investment decision for its Hope Bay project, located in Nunavut, Canada. Following significant exploration success in recent years, the Company has completed a preliminary economic assessment (the “2026 Study”) which contemplates an underground mining operation supported by a 6,000 tonnes per day (“tpd”) processing facility with estimated annual gold production of between 400,000 and 435,000 ounces. The 2026 Study outlines an initial mine life of 11 years, with substantial upside potential from regional exploration across the highly prospective 80-kilometre greenstone belt extending south from the Doris mine to the Boston deposit, where the Company continues to pursue an aggressive exploration program.
“We are incredibly proud of our team for transforming Hope Bay from a vision into one of Canada’s most important new mines in just five years. With expected annual production of over 400,000 ounces and total cash costs below $1,000 per ounce, based on only half the declared mineral resources drilled, Hope Bay has the potential to evolve into a long-life, district-scale mining camp for decades to come,” said Ammar Al-Joundi, Agnico Eagle’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “The construction and redevelopment of Hope Bay will support the long‑term sustainability of our Nunavut operating platform at between 800,000 ounces and one million ounces of annual gold production and represents the first major milestone toward delivering our targeted 20% to 30% production growth over the next decade. We are also proud that this investment will contribute to the economic development of Northern Canada and enable meaningful, long‑term economic participation for Indigenous organizations and partners, including the Kitikmeot Inuit Association,” added Mr. Al-Joundi.
Highlights from the 2026 Study include:
- Development of the next large-scale gold mine in Nunavut
- Large and high-quality mineral resource base of 5.79 million ounces of gold (31.97 million tonnes grading 5.63 grams per tonne (“g/t”) gold) in the measured and indicated category and 3.33 million ounces of gold (17.33 million tonnes grading 5.97 g/t gold) in the inferred category
- An initial 11‑year mine life which incorporates only approximately 55% of measured and indicated mineral resources and 48% of inferred mineral resources, highlighting substantial upside potential. With continued infill and expansion drilling, the Hope Bay project demonstrates strong prospects to extend mine life and further grow its production profile
- Startup plan contemplates three mining fronts (Doris at the Doris deposit; and Madrid and Patch 7 at the Madrid deposit) supported by a conventional 6,000 tpd milling facility
- Average annual steady state gold production of approximately 435,000 ounces and an average of approximately 408,000 ounces over the full initial 11-year mine life
- Attractive economics with meaningful upside leverage
- Initial development capital expenditures1 are estimated at approximately $2.4 billion, including reconstruction of the processing facility, addition of a 37 megawatt diesel generator power plant, mobile equipment, upgrades to the tailings facility and approximately 33 kilometres in underground development, positioning the operation for multi-decade potential
- Cost structure is below the Company’s current peer-leading cost profile, with projected average total cash costs per ounce2 and all in sustaining costs (“AISC”) per ounce2 of approximately $958 and $1,214, respectively, using current gold prices of $4,500 per ounce and a C$/US$ exchange rate of 1.36
- In this initial phase, the Hope Bay project is expected to generate an after-tax internal rate of return (“IRR”) of approximately 26% based on the same assumptions
- Significant exploration upside is expected to extend mine life through mineral resource conversion and expansion drilling at the Doris and Madrid deposits in the short-term and the potential addition of Boston as a satellite deposit in the medium- to long-term
- Project significantly de-risked and execution-ready
- Detailed engineering is approximately 62% complete, providing a high level of confidence in the capital cost estimate and execution plan
- Significant surface infrastructure upgrades completed, including enhancements to port facilities, camp infrastructure and water management systems, supporting the ramp-up of construction activities
- Leveraging the Company’s nearly 20 years of proven expertise in Arctic mine construction and operations
- Key underground access points are advanced, including the Naartok East exploration ramp and the Patch 7 exploration portal and ramp
- Continued aggressive exploration program planned in the coming years across the broader Hope Bay property
“Over nearly 20 years, we have consistently created value through the drill bit across our Nunavut assets. At Hope Bay, the discovery of the new mineralized zone at Patch 7 was transformative, with high‑grade and thick mineralized intercepts defining a new mining area within the Madrid deposit. This success reflects the strength and agility of our exploration team, which quickly identified this high‑potential opportunity following the acquisition of the project and delivered results through an aggressive and well‑executed exploration program over the last five years,” said Guy Gosselin, Agnico Eagle’s Executive Vice President, Exploration. “Patch 7 underscores the significant exploration upside of the Hope Bay greenstone belt, and we remain highly encouraged by the opportunity to continue growing mineral resources both at depth and laterally at Doris and Madrid in the near term, at the Boston deposit in the medium-to long-term and continue to unlock further value across the highly prospective 80‑kilometre belt,” added Mr. Gosselin.
- Significant exploration potential to grow underground mineral resources
- The 2026 Study is based on a mineral resource estimate which relies on a drill database cut-off of August 28, 2025. The Company has since drilled more than 130 holes totalling over 100,000 metres at Hope Bay to the end of April 2026 in an ongoing exploration program. Recent exploration results show the potential to significantly expand the underground mineral resource between Suluk and Patch 7, to the south of Patch 7 towards Patch 14, and at depth
- Over the next three years, as part of the Company’s exploration budget, more than $100 million in exploration spending is planned at Hope Bay, primarily focused on conversion and expansion drilling of the current underground mineral resource. Work in 2026 includes continued testing and extension of the Patch 7 zone and the resumption of diamond drilling at Boston
- Continue to enhance value through optimization studies and regional exploration focus
- The Boston deposit is located approximately 50 kilometres south of the Madrid deposit and hosts approximately 1.01 million ounces of gold in indicated mineral resources (5.48 million tonnes grading 5.72 g/t gold) and 0.47 million ounces of gold in inferred mineral resources (2.85 million tonnes grading 5.14 g/t gold). It contains some of the highest-grade intersections identified at Hope Bay to date and remains open in all directions. Resuming exploration efforts at Boston aims to test known gold mineralization in the southern portion of the Hope Bay greenstone belt, exploring the gap between Madrid and Boston where fertile rocks and structures are expected to potentially increase economic mineralization
- Ongoing district‑scale exploration across Hope Bay’s extensive land position will focus on satellite targets and the highly prospective corridor between the Madrid and Boston deposits. This area, which lies along the same greenstone belt and major deformation zones, has seen only limited shallow drilling historically and is expected to be a core focus of the Company’s exploration strategy in the coming years, alongside continued advancement of the Boston deposit. Regional work will also incorporate geophysics, geochemistry, and modern exploration techniques to refine targeting and support the identification of additional deposits across the belt
- END
NICKEL
SUPPLY FEARS
Nickel Jumps As Indonesian Output Cut Stokes Supply Fears
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 12:05 PM
Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange surged as much as 2.6% to $19,050 a ton after Shanghai Metals Market said upwards of 15% of high-grade nickel pig iron capacity at Indonesia’s Weda Bay Industrial Park will undergo rotational maintenance in the coming months, according to Bloomberg.
Indonesia’s Weda Bay Industrial Park is one of the most important nickel-processing hubs in the world and serves a large cluster of smelters that produce nickel pig iron, a key input for stainless steel production.
Indonesia dominates global nickel supply, producing 2.6 million metric tons of nickel in 2025 out of a global total of 3.9 million tons, accounting for roughly two-thirds of global mine production.
So, the earlier news from SMM indicating a 10% to 15% reduction in NPI output from Weda Bay Industrial Park in the coming months, building on existing NPI reductions in March and April due to lower ore supplies and high costs, has easily sparked supply concerns on the LME …
Nickel is extremely valuable and a critical industrial metal in the era of electrification and data center buildouts:
- Stainless steel, by far the largest demand center, where nickel improves corrosion resistance, strength, and heat tolerance.
- EV and energy-storage batteries, especially nickel-rich lithium-ion chemistries that increase energy density and driving range.
- Aerospace and military superalloys, including jet-engine turbine blades and high-temperature gas turbines.
- Industrial alloys, plating, and catalysts, used across machinery, chemicals, and corrosion-resistant equipment.
Let’s not forget that sulfuric acid prices have surged amid the Hormuz disruption. This industrial chemical is used in nickel production, especially in Indonesia’s battery-grade nickel supply chain.
The line in the sand for LME nickel futures is $20,000.\
END
GOLD
China, debt, gold: What’s happening under the surface
by Monetary Metals
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 14:51
In this episode, Joseph Solis-Mullen joins us for a sweeping conversation on China’s economy, America’s debt spiral, and the growing global appeal of gold.
From ghost cities and financial repression to reserve currencies and demographic decline, Joseph cuts through the headlines to explain what’s really happening beneath the surface of both the Chinese and U.S. systems.
We explore why China may not want to replace the dollar, how government debt quietly reshapes everyday life, and why both governments and citizens are increasingly turning to gold as a trusted store of value in an era of mounting uncertainty.
Watch the episode now.
Follow Monetary Metals on X: @Monetary_Metals
Follow Jeff Snider on X: @solis_mullen
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.01 PTS OR 0.92%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 122.67 PTS OR 0.48%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 75.45 PTS OR 0.12%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .40%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8035
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8064 Oil UP TO 108.03 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 110.32 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.8035) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8064 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.8035
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.8064
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 122.67 PTS OR 0.48%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 75.45 PTS OR 0.12%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 108.03
BRENT; 110.32
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.09/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1631 DOWN 24 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.792 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 159.06… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.149 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.8003 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.8053
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.1502// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.9090// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.525%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.820%
3j Gold at $4544.30 //Silver at: 76.07 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 98/ 100 roubles/71.46
3m oil (WTI) into the 108 dollar handle for WTI and 110 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.06 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.792% UP 5 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.149 UP 5 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7856 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9137
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.604 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.140 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.061 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.58 UP 0 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.0740 DOWN 5 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.727 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.693 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.351 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Fall As Momentum Cracks Grow With Yields And Oil Higher
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 07:58 AM
US equity futures are lower, set for a 3rd drop in a row, as traders waited for futile signs of progress toward a peace deal in the Middle East. and as tech and small cap stocks reacted adversely to higher bond yields around the globe, but nowhere more so than in Japan, where many tenors are trading at record lows, as the wheels have fully come off the clown bus, aka the Bank of Japan. As of 7:30am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.8% as a retreat in tech shares pulled stocks lower in the US and Asia; S&P futures were down 0.4%, putting the benchmark on course for its longest losing streak since March. In premarket trading, semis/memory names remain under pressure; GOOGL and MSFT outperformed their Mag 7 peers, with Nvidia’s earnings looming as the next major test for the AI trade. Sandisk slipped again as the selloff in memory stocks continued. Financials and Staples are two of the bright spots despite Defensives generally leading Cyclicals. South Korea’s Kospi – ground zero of the global memory momentum bubble – led losses in Asia as the momentum trade cracks (with foreign investors pulling money for a 9th straight day). Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% as media and financial services outperformed: the continent’s outperformance may be the market expressing the view that the next rotation is underway. The USD traded near session highs, reversing a modest drop earlier, which helped send 10Y yields to session highs around 4.62%. Oil reversed overnight losses to trade at session highs while. Commodities are mixed after Trump said he is delaying Iranian attacks due to GCC requests to find a deal. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP and Pending Home Sales. Given bond yields, the Goldilocks zone for ADP has narrowed: too high and inflation concerns flare and too low and the narrative shifts to stagflation.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower as Alphabet and Microsoft outperformed their Mag 7 peers, with Nvidia’s earnings looming as the next major test for the AI trade. Sandisk Corp. slipped as the selloff in memory stocks continued. (Alphabet +0.5, Microsoft +1, Meta -0.3, Amazon -0.7%, Apple -0.6%, Nvidia -0.7%, Tesla -1%).
- Agilysys (AGYS) is up 15% after the hospitality software company reported its fourth-quarter results.
- Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rises 12% as the Securities and Exchange Commission is said to ready plans for trading crypto versions of stocks.
- XP (XP) falls 5.9% after the Brazilian asset management company reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates. Revenues from fixed-income products sold to retail clients were especially weak, analysts said, weighed down by elevated interest rates.
- Agilysys (AGYS) rises 20% after the hospitality software company posted quarterly results that topped estimates.
- Amer Sports (AS) rises 4% after it raised full-year guidance and first-quarter results beat estimates, buoyed by demand for Salomon shoes.
- Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) rises 12% as the Securities and Exchange Commission is said to ready plans for trading crypto versions of stocks.
- Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) rises 14% after the drug developer gave initial clinical data from a mid-stage trial to treat vascular anomalies. TD Cowen calls the data “best case scenario.”
- Stubhub (STUB) rises 4% as Guggenheim Securities upgrades to buy from neutral citing upside to 2026 numbers.
- XP (XP) falls 4% after the Brazilian asset management company reported first-quarter earnings that missed estimates. Revenues from fixed-income products sold to retail clients were especially weak, analysts said, weighed down by elevated interest rates.
In other corporate news, Clear Street is cutting jobs and replacing its CEO, as the Wall Street brokerage firm pivots after abandoning a plan to go public earlier this year. Google agreed to create an AI cloud business with Blackstone, aiming to compete with companies like CoreWeave in a burgeoning market. A jury rejected Elon Musk’s claims that OpenAI betrayed its mission to benefit the public by morphing into a for-profit business, finding that he waited too long to sue the company. Meanwhile, the “Muskonomy” imminently gets a second stock with the SpaceX IPO and that could create problems for Tesla, as explored in the latest Tech Watch column.
The AI/momentum rally is faltering after powering global equities to record highs in the face of rising bond yields and elevated crude prices. As noted last night, the two-day drop in high beta momentum was the biggest since 2022.
The recent boom in pockets of the market such as semiconductors and non-profitable tech has traders wondering if the next move is buy the dip or sustained rotation into other places. At the same time, lagging sectors such as healthcare are catching up after underperforming over the past few weeks.
Meanwhile, asset allocators increased their equity exposure to stocks by the most on record to a net 50% overweight from 13% last month, and are now most overweight stocks since January 2022, Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey shows. The most crowded trade, referenced by 73% of respondents, is long semiconductors, followed by long Mag-7 (14%) and long oil (6%).
JPMorgan Market Intelligence desk expects any pullback to be short-lived, dips will likely be bought on the strength in macro and micro, the return of retail investors, the perceived restart of corporate buybacks, and a generally positive take on impending market catalysts.
“The performance of the semis has been parabolic, so it’s not surprising there’s some profit-taking,” said Roger Lee, head of equity strategy at Cavendish. “Maybe there is also an element of the returning doubts over the monetization of AI.”
Hedging costs appear to be picking up, with normalized skews on the major indexes increasing from last week’s trough, which saw Nasdaq 100 sentiment the most bullish in more than a year.
Speaking of AI, so far the only tangible benefit is scapegoating it for mass layoffs: the recent trend of job cuts on the back of “AI efficiencies” continues to make headlines. Meta is reassigning 7,000 workers to new jobs related to AI, according to an internal memo, part of a broad corporate restructuring that includes planned staff reductions later this week. Standard Chartered said it would cut corporate functions roles by more than 15% by 2030 and scale practical uses of AI to streamline processes.
And then there is the war in iran. “Investors are desperate for the Middle East conflict to end as that should, in theory, help to bring down oil prices, dampen talk of rate hikes, and switch the conversation back to economic growth,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. “For now, the conflict rumbles on and investors remain slightly cautious.”
After oil-driven inflation drove bond yields steadily higher since the start of the war in the Middle East, traders are now zeroing in on 5.5% as the next key level for 30-year Treasuries, according to Citigroup Inc. strategist Jim McCormick.
“I see markets underpricing the risk of a Fed rate hike starting this year,” he said. Swap traders are currently leaning toward a 25 basis point increase in December, with a move fully priced for March next year.
Nicolas Bickel, group head of investment for private banking at Edmond de Rothschild, told Bloomberg TV he wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year US yields at 5%. The rate rose three basis points to 4.62% on Tuesday. “If we have higher inflation and growth stays steady, it will not be an issue,” he said.
In political news, Trump announced his administration is adding more than 600 generic medications to its direct-to-consumer drug sales website TrumpRx alongside billionaire Mark Cuban. The SEC is poised to roll out a plan for trading digital versions of securities that could reshape the landscape of the American stock market as it continues to loosen the rules for free-wheeling crypto markets.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is thus far avoiding declines and is up by 0.7%, led by media, financial services and retail stocks. Most sectors advance, with the basic resources subindex the only significant decliner. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- Evolution gains as much as 13%, the most since Oct. 2024, after the Swedish online gambling company approved a €2 billion share buyback program. Analysts say the size of the buyback program is a welcome signal of confidence
- IG Group shares rise as much as 9.8% to a new high after first-quarter revenue beat analysts’ forecasts and the online trading company lifted its full-year guidance
- Intrum gains as much as 18% after UBS upgraded the Swedish credit services group to buy from neutral, saying the announcement of a fully-underwritten capital increase is a “clear inflection point for the equity story”
- Lagercrantz gains as much as 8.5% to a record high after the Swedish industrial group reported earnings ahead of estimates. DNB Carnegie describes the update as very solid, citing a high pace of acquisitions during the year
- Currys shares gain as much as 12% after a trading update and are now in positive territory for the year. Analysts welcomed a third consecutive upgrade to pretax profit guidance
- Hansa Biopharma gains as much as 30% after the company sold the exclusive development and commercialization rights to Idefirix in the EU, UK, Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Iceland and the Middle East and North Africa regions
- Vallourec falls as much as 11%, the most since July 2024, after ArcelorMittal sold shares in the French tubular solutions company at a discount. Morgan Stanley calls the news a surprise
- Grieg Seafood falls as much as 8.1%, the most in a month, after the Norwegian fisheries firm posted weak results and trimmed full-year forecasts, which analysts expect will cause consensus estimates to be slashed
- Boxer declined as much as 5.8% after Pick n Pay Stores raised 4.7 billion rand by selling 57.3 million ordinary shares of the retailer — representing 12.5% of Boxer’s total issued shares — through an accelerated bookbuild offering
- Forterra shares slip as much as 7.9% to the lowest since November 2023 after the UK brickmaker reported soft trading and gave cautious commentary for FY26
- Nanobiotix shares drop as much as 9.5%, falling for a third day after hitting a record last week. That trimmed the French biotechnology company’s rally since the FDA accepted a streamlined trial design in early May for its experimental cancer drug
Asian stocks dropped for a third session as a lack of clarity over an Iran peace deal and elevated global bond yields weighed on risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.9%, heading for its longest losing streak since March. South Korea’s Kospi Index was one of the worst performers, tumbling more than 3% as rising bond yields dulled the appeal of growth stocks like chipmakers. Risk appetite remained muted even after President Donald Trump said he was holding off on fresh strikes on Iran, as investors focused on elevated oil prices that have fanned inflation concerns. Those worries are keeping bond yields higher for longer, offsetting optimism over the benefits of the artificial intelligence boom. “Global bond yields moving higher are sending a clear reality check: sustained high energy prices could bring tighter monetary conditions sooner rather than later,” according to Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Over the past five years, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen in 16 of the 19 weeks when the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 20 basis points or more, losing an average 1.6%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Last week fit that pattern. Indonesian shares were on track for a sixth session of declines as speculation mounted that the government will centralize commodity exports to control capital flows and shore up a plunging currency. Meanwhile, benchmarks in mainland China, Hong Kong and Australia rose. Chipmakers Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge. In Japan, the broader benchmark Topix index rebounded, led by banks after stronger-than-expected GDP data fueled speculation the central bank could raise interest rates again.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3%, while the Aussie is the underperformer after RBA minutes.
In rates, Treasuries are weaker with 10-year yields up two basis points following similar price action in bunds while gilts outperform after lower-than-forecast UK April jobs figures. US 10-year yield near 4.61% (vs session high 4.62%) underperforms UK counterpart by almost 5bp; US 30-year near 5.15% is also about 1bp off day’s high. US yields are 2bp-3bp cheaper across a slightly flatter curve; Fed-OIS contracts price in around 16 basis points of tightening by year-end and fully price in a hike by the March policy meeting. UK bonds are outperforming in Europe after soft labour market data. Ten-year gilt yields are down four basis points and bets on Bank of England rate hikes have been pulled back. G dollar issuance slate includes five deals already; Monday saw Merck’s $6 billion bond sale lead eight borrowers pricing a combined $12.2 billion of new debt. Kennametal, Mobility Global and Xylem are candidates for Tuesday after holding market exercises Monday. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening (Thursday). Focal points of US session include comments by Fed Governor Waller at 8am New York time and potential for another large corporate new-issue calendar.
In commodities, oil prices have reversed overnight losses with Brent sitting a little above $110 after Trump said he’d called off a strike on Iran following an appeal by Persian Gulf allies
Economic data slate includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and April pending home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller (8am) and Paulson (7pm).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.3%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.4%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%
- DAX +1.3%
- CAC 40 +0.9%
- 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.61%
- VIX +0.3 points at 18.15
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1203.27
- euro -0.3% at $1.1616
- WTI crude -1.1% at $107.5/barrel
Top Overnight News
- President Trump said he would hold off on a planned U.S. attack on Iran at the request of Gulf leaders to make room for negotiations with Tehran over a prospective deal to end the war. The White House didn’t provide additional details about the planned attack. Several Gulf officials from some of the countries Trump mentioned said they were not aware of the imminent plan to attack Iran he described. WSJ
- Trump said ‘hopefully, maybe forever’ regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn’t get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days: Truth Social
- US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
- Vladimir Putin arrives in Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping as the Iran war offers Russia an opportunity to deepen energy links with China. Putin and Xi are due to meet tomorrow. BBG
- Soaring borrowing costs could trigger a “correction” in the stock market, highlighting a growing disconnect between exuberant equities and bonds battered by worries over high inflation. FT
- Financial market turbulence could force the Bank of Japan to go slow on the unwinding of its massive debt holdings, giving anxious bond investors some relief as surging yields lay bare worsening fiscal strains and inflation pressures. RTRS
- Japan’s economy grew much faster than expected at the start of the year, supporting the case for further Bank of Japan interest-rate hikes, though the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the Middle East conflict. Japan’s economy grew 2.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, exceeding economists’ forecast for a 1.7% increase. BBG
- Ukraine’s military has wrestled Russia’s much-larger army almost to a halt in recent months, having gained a tactical and technological edge. WSJ
- The SEC is set to roll out a plan for trading tokenized versions of stocks on crypto platforms, people familiar said. The framework has raised concerns about market fragmentation and investor protection. BBG
- Meta is reassigning 7,000 workers to new AI-related roles as part of a broader restructuring that includes planned staff cuts later this week. The company is also pursuing a $200 billion data center in rural Louisiana. BBG
- Google and Blackstone will form an AI cloud JV, backed by an initial $5 billion equity commitment from the PE firm. BBG
- US President Trump announced that the number of drugs available on TrumpRx is to be increased by nearly 7 times and that over 600 generics are to be added to TrumpRx.
Iran Headlines
- US President Trump posted on Truth that he instructed Secretary of War Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Caine and the US military to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. Trump added that in their opinion, a deal will be made that is very acceptable to the US and the Middle East, while a deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran, but he also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment’s notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
- US President Trump said ‘hopefully, maybe forever’ regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn’t get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days.
- US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks, while he said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
- US State Department spokesperson said President Trump prefers the diplomatic path and has kept this door open from the start, according to Al Jazeera.
- Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and US forces exiting areas close to Iran are also included in the proposal.
- Iranian Parliament spokesperson said Tehran is working on a legal framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz, Al Araby reported.
- US officials told the NYT that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire to re-expose dozens of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and adjust its tactics in anticipation of a possible resumption of attacks, according to Amichai Stein.
- Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters commander warned the US and its allies against strategic mistakes, while he said Iran’s forces have become ready and will respond quickly and firmly to any new aggression from the enemies.
- Iranian Supreme Leader’s military advisor Rezaei said the iron fist of Iran’s armed forces and nation will force America to retreat and surrender.
- Israeli media said the main reason US President Trump postponed attacks on Iran is the Pentagon’s warning that Iran is strengthening its air defences, while senior Pentagon officials warned that Iran is enhancing its warplane detection capabilities and bolstering its air defences, according to Al Mayadeen. It was also reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Mehr News.
- Unknown explosions last night in Bab al-Mandeb Strait halted vessel traffic for two hours, Far News reported. Sources cited note of “unusual silence” from global maritime and insurance authorities.
- Israeli drone strike was reported in Al-Qarara, Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip. It was separately reported that Hezbollah announced it attacked Israeli soldiers in the town of Rashaf, southern Lebanon with drones, while the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning for a building in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kiuchi sees strong momentum in this year’s wage negotiations and improvements in job conditions. Further said that effect of government steps slightly to underpin moderate economic recovery and must be vigilant to the impacts on the economy from the Middle East conflict. Japan’s government plans to postpone its summer power-saving request, according to Kyodo. New Zealand’s Finance Minister said the government is to overhaul public service and target savings of NZD 2.4bln over the next four years, and will aim to lower government jobs to 55,000 by mid-2029 from 65,000 in 2023.
Top Asian News
- Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kiuchi sees strong momentum in this year’s wage negotiations and improvements in job conditions. Further said that effect of government steps slightly to underpin moderate economic recovery and must be vigilant to the impacts on the economy from the Middle East conflict.
- Japan’s government plans to postpone its summer power-saving request, according to Kyodo.
- New Zealand’s Finance Minister said the government is to overhaul public service and target savings of NZD 2.4bln over the next four years, and will aim to lower government jobs to 55,000 by mid-2029 from 65,000 in 2023.
- Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q1) Q/Q 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.7%).
- Japanese GDP Growth Annualised Prel (Q1) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.3%, Low. 0.4%, High. 2.9%).
- Japanese Industrial Production MoM Final (Mar) M/M -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -2.0%).
- Japanese Industrial Production YoY Final (Mar) Y/Y 2.4% (Prev. 0.4%).
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) start Tuesday’s trade on the front foot, seemingly benefiting from Trump’s de-escalatory post. Trump announced that the US military is to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. However, he stated that they will be prepared to strike on a moment’s notice. The DAX 40 (+1.5%) is the clear outperformer, while the FTSE MIB (+0.2%) lags. European sectors highlight the positive bias. Media tops the sector pile, seemingly benefiting from continued upside in Publicis. Financial Services and Industrial Goods & Services round out the top 3 sectors. At the bottom of the pile lies Basic Resources (as precious metals pare Monday’s gains) and Chemicals. US equity futures print modest declines, ES -0.5%. Despite today’s modest fixed bid, yields remain elevated and continue to weigh on the tech-heavy NQ (-0.8%). Despite the relative underperformance vs Europe, analysts see this as short-term due to Europe’s lack of IT sector, which has held the region back compared to South Korea and the US
Top European News
- UK Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.9%, Low. 4.7%, High. 5.1%). ONS: “Latest figures suggest the labour market remains soft, with vacancies at their lowest level in five years and unemployment higher than a year ago. The number of payroll employees continued to fall in the three months to March, while regular wage growth slowed further.”
- UK Employment Change (Mar) 148K vs. Exp. 107K (Prev. 25K, Low. 40K, High. 240K).
- UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.6%, Low. 3.4%, High. 3.7%).
FX
- USD benefits from underperformance in peers, despite crude benchmarks being lower and the yield environment being more constructive. DXY is higher by three-tenths after bouncing off its 50DMA at 99.00. The session ahead is light, and sees remarks from Fed doves Waller and Paulson, alongside ADP weekly payrolls.
- GBP is a little lower against the Buck and Euro as technical-driven outperformance on Monday is reversed. Focus recently has been on politics (Manchester Mayor Burnham said that changing the Fiscal rules was not an option), and on a downbeat UK jobs report. Cable currently resides at the bottom end of a 1.3387 to 1.3437 range.
- USD/JPY topped Monday’s high (159.08), bringing intervention fears back in focus. USD/JPY has been edging higher throughout the last ten sessions amid reports of a supplementary budget and oil remaining high, with Japan a net importer.
- AUD is the G10 laggard, seemingly looking to price in the weak Chinese data on Monday as Monday’s risk-induced rally pares. Alongside the fading of the risk environment, RBA minutes overnight indicated a wait-and-see approach among members that voted for a hike, reinforcing market pricing of just c. 5bps of tightening for June 16th’s meeting. AUD/USD resumes its slide from 0.7200 on Friday, looks now to 0.7100, around 10-15 pips below.
Fixed Income
- USTs are firmer by around 6 ticks and currently trade at the mid-point of a 109-03 to 109-11+ range. Action ultimately dictated by Trump’s decision to delay strikes on Iran, after several Gulf countries suggested that serious talks were taking place. Nonetheless, risks remain, as Trump suggested that the US is prepared to launch a full-scale assault on Iran at a moment’s notice if an acceptable deal is not reached. Geopolitics aside, focus will be on the weekly ADP Employment Change metrics and Pending Home Sales; Fed speak via Waller is also due.
- From a yield perspective, US yields have eased a touch from the prior day’s peaks; the 10yr now holds around 4.60% (vs Monday’s peak at 4.63%). Nonetheless, the yield still resides beyond the key 4.50% mark, where some analysts have speculated a decisive breach above this point could see the yield begin to spiral.
- Gilts are outperforming vs peers, and are currently firmer by c. 80 ticks, trading with an 86.14 to 86.40 range. A trifecta of factors driving the action today: a) lower energy prices, b) Manchester Mayor Burnham (touted to challenge for PM) saying that changing fiscal rules would not be an option and c) a downbeat UK jobs report.
- Bunds are firmer by around 15 ticks, and hold within a 124.18 to 124.41 range. EU-specific newsflow has been light this morning, with the German benchmark ultimately moving alongside peers. Focus later will be on some ECB speak, but perhaps more pertinently, attention will be on the EU’s meeting related to US tariffs. The main sticking point is Trump. Officials are working on developing clauses to protect the EU, through “Trump Proofing”: a) expires once Trump’s presidential term ends, b) deal suspends if Greenland is threatened, c) allows the EU to restore tariffs if there are significant domestic market disruptions. Should officials reach an agreement, documents will be sent for a full vote in the European Parliament by June.
- Citi strategists says 5.5% may be the next key level for 30yr US Treasury yields after they rose to the highest since 2007.
- Germany sells EUR 3.844bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.32x (prev. 1.04x), average yield 2.85% (prev. 2.74%), retention 23.12% (prev. 20.9%).
Commodities
- The main update was US President Trump delaying the planned Iran attack after requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, as serious talks are taking place. However, they remain ready to strike if an acceptable deal is not reached. Sources continue to outline that some form of military action remains likely, while explosions have been heard in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with transit halted overnight. See the 08:29BST update for more.
- WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday amid the pullback seen after US President Trump called off an attack on Iran that was planned for Tuesday following the request by Gulf nations. WTI Jul resides in a USD 102.12-104/bbl range, and Brent Jul in a USD 109.01-110.77/bbl range – both off worst levels. Dutch TTF trimmed earlier downside and trades firmer by ~1% at the time of writing, north of EUR 50/MWh. Analysts at ING, on US-Iran, said “One might think the oil market would become increasingly numb to these headlines. However, the scale of supply disruptions is significant and growing more concerning each day that oil flows remain halted.”
- In terms of metals, spot gold and silver post losses as the DXY remains underpinned by inflation concerns emanating from elevated oil prices. Spot gold trades closer to the bottom of a USD 4,531-4,589.58/oz range after briefly topping yesterday’s USD 4,584.37/oz peak. Spot silver resides in a USD 75.72-78.89/bbl. Base metals are on a softer footing amid the inflationary concerns from elevated energy prices. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,485.98- 13,646.68/t range at the time of writing.
- Australian PM Albanese said Australia secured over 600k barrels of jet fuel and that three cargoes of jet fuel from China are expected to arrive from early June.
- Angola reportedly to cut July crude exports to 889k bpd.
- The EU is set to unveil an action plan to bolster fertiliser supplies and mitigate food price inflation, the FT reported citing draft proposals.
Central Banks
- RBA Minutes from the May meeting stated the board judged financial conditions would be somewhat restrictive after the May hike and that a hike would provide space to see how the Gulf conflict develops, as well as the response of households and businesses. Board considered whether to hike by 25bps or to keep rates at 4.1%, while it was stated that for future decisions, the board agreed monetary policy could not alter the near-term trajectory of inflation, and also agreed Australian economic growth is likely to be below potential for some time. Furthermore, the board will do what is considered necessary to meet inflation and employment mandates, while the majority emphasised that core inflation was projected above target for an extended period.
- RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said risk of inflation expectations drifting higher is elevated, and the Middle East conflict is a clear external shock, adding that the recent rise in oil prices is particularly challenging to navigate.
US Event Calendar
- 8:00 am: United States Fed’s Waller in Moderated Discussion
- 7:00 pm: United States Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
My mini world tour continues, and it’s another rare ocean view. This time in Lisbon where I’m passing through for a conference. It really is a beautiful city. Well the parts that I’ve seen on my travels.
As I watch the early morning waves crash gently into the harbor, markets have had a mixed 24 hours, with Trump’s post that he called off planned new strikes against Iran helping the S&P 500 (-0.07%) erase most of its intra-day decline towards the end of the session, while 10yr Treasury yields stabilised after touching their highest level in over a year at 4.63%. Brent crude also retreated from two-week highs but is still trading close to $110/bbl this morning and little changed from the end of last week. And the broader market mood is on the cautious side this morning, with US equity futures and most Asian markets losing ground.
We are now exactly six weeks into the combined truce and ceasefire, following 5.5 weeks of strikes and attacks. While my base case is that the absence of kinetic activity would not have persisted this long without US intent to secure a deal, the lack of an agreement—despite several false dawns— remains a source of nervousness.
In terms of the latest from the Middle East, the last major swing came late in yesterday’s US session as Trump claimed that he had called off an attack against Iran that has been scheduled for today after an appeal by leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. The news helped remove some of the risk premium that had built up over the course of yesterday, even though in the same post Trump also said that he ordered the US military to be ready for “a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached”. Later on, Trump said that he was asked to put off new strikes “for two or three days” as Gulf allies thought “they are getting very close to making a deal”, while he also stressed the aim of “no nuclear weapon going into the hands of Iran”.
Following Trump’s comments, Brent crude is trading -2.03% lower this morning at $109.84/bbl as I type. Shortly before Trump’s post it had traded as high as $112.72, the highest intra-day level in almost two weeks. Oil prices whipsawed earlier yesterday alongside conflicting headlines around the prospects for further strikes. First, came a positive reaction after Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the US had proposed a temporary waiver on oil sanctions. So that led Brent to fall below $107/bbl as investors latched onto signs of progress in the US-Iran discussions. But more negative headlines then began to come through before Trump’s post. For instance, Tasnim also reported a source who said that Tehran felt the US had “excessive demands and unrealistic positions”. And on the US side, Axios cited a senior US official who said the White House didn’t think Iran’s updated proposal was sufficient for a deal.
In Asia this morning, markets are on the softer side, with tech stocks not helping the mood. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-4.12%) stands out as the largest underperformer, having fallen as much as -5.0% earlier in the session. Other moves are more more muted with the Nikkei (-0.42%) and the CSI (-0.49%) only slightly lower and with the Shanghai Composite flat. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.93%) is defying the regional trend, alongside the Hang Seng (+0.39%). S&P 500 (-0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.46%) futures are giving back some of the late recovery from last night.
The S&P 500 (-0.07%) ended the day with a marginal decline, with Trump’s post helping it recover from -0.75% down an hour before the close. After its sharp decline last Friday, the S&P still posted its worst two-day performance since March, albeit only down -1.31% in that period from Thursday’s record high. Tech stocks took a larger hit, with the Magnificent 7 (-0.64%) and the NASDAQ (-0.51%) seeing a more material pullback. But the broader mood was more positive, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 rising by +0.58%.
US Treasuries also saw a varied performance, with 2yr (-2.6bps to 4.05%) and 10yr yields (-0.6bps to 4.59%) erasing their intra-day increases, but 30yr yields (+0.7bps) inching up to a new post-2007 high of 5.12%. Aside from oil, a rise in yields had been supported by positive data yesterday, which suggested the US economy had continued its resilience into May. Indeed, the NY Fed’s services business activity hit a 16-month high of -5.8, whilst the NAHB’s housing market index was up to 37 (vs. 34 expected). 10yr Treasury yields are around +1.4bps higher again overnight trading at 4.60%.
Over in Europe however, markets put in a relatively stronger performance, with bonds and equities both rebounding. So 10yr bund yields (-1.9bps) came down to 3.15%, after closing at a post-2011 high on Friday, whilst OATs (-4.0bps) and BTPs (-4.2bps) fell back as well. On top of that, investors dialled back their expectations for ECB rate hikes, with 73bps priced by the December meeting, down -2.1bps on the previous day. And in turn, the prospect of fewer rate cuts helped to support equities as well, with the STOXX 600 (+0.54%) paring back its slump on Friday.
Here in the UK, gilts outperformed their European counterparts, which came as a spokeperson for Greater Manchester Andy Burnham ruled out changing the government’s fiscal rules if he gained power. Moreover, the spokesperson also ruled out exempting defence spending from the rules, which is something Burnham had previously floated. So that reassured investors who’d been worried that Burnham might lead to higher gilt issuance, particularly after his comments last year about being “in hock” to the bond markets. In turn, that led to a clear rally, with 10yr gilt yields (-7.4bps) closing at 5.10%, down from their post-2008 high on Friday. Moreover, other UK assets outperformed, with the FTSE 100 (+1.26%) advancing, whilst the pound strengthened +0.81% against the US Dollar. Nevertheless, incumbent PM Starmer continued to reject suggestions he’d stand down if Burnham won the by-election, reiterating to broadcasters that “I’m not going to walk away”.
Early morning data has showed that Japan’s economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026 (compared to the +1.7% anticipated), driven by enhanced consumption and robust exports, thereby bolstering the argument for additional interest rate hikes by the BOJ. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The report indicates that the economy gained momentum during the January-March period, prior to the full effects of the war in Iran becoming apparent.
Despite the bullish growth figures, the Japanese yen has weakened slightly against the dollar following the announcement. Overnight BoJ swaps remain relatively stable, indicating around a 77% probability that the central bank will increase rates in June. Yields on 10-year JGBs have risen by +4.5bps, trading at 2.76%, marking a fresh multi-decade high as we go to print.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include UK unemployment for March, Canada’s CPI for April, and US pending home sales for April. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Waller and Paulson, the ECB’s Villeroy, Lane and Makhlouf, and the BoE’s Breeden.
1b European opening report
1 c Asian opening report
DXY a touch lower, Bourses set for a modestly firmer open as Trump delays strikes on Iran – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 02:05 AM
- US President Trump posted on Truth that the US military is to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place.
- US President Trump also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment’s notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
- US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks.
- Crude futures were lower following the prior day’s choppy mood owing to mixed geopolitical headlines, although the main highlight was US President Trump calling off an attack on Iran.
- APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a mildly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs Report (Mar/Apr), Average Earnings (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Canadian CPI (Apr). Speakers include BoE’s Breeden, ECB’s Lane & Fed’s Waller. Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Home Depot.
SNAPSHOT
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump posted on Truth that he instructed Secretary of War Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Caine and the US military to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. Trump added that in their opinion, a deal will be made that is very acceptable to the US and the Middle East, while a deal will include no nuclear weapons for Iran, but he also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment’s notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.
- US President Trump said ‘hopefully, maybe forever’ regarding the decision to delay the Iran attack, while he added that they will probably be satisfied if they can make a deal where Iran doesn’t get a nuclear weapon. Trump also stated that countries requested to put off the attack on Iran briefly and asked if an attack on Iran could be delayed 2-3 days.
- US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks, while he said Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon.”
- US State Department spokesperson said President Trump prefers the diplomatic path and has kept this door open from the start, according to Al Jazeera.
- US official told CNBC that Iranian state media reports claiming the US had agreed to lift oil sanctions while negotiations were ongoing were false.
- Israeli security sources said preparations were completed ahead of another round, which is estimated to last several days and will be the last for the near term, while a source updated on US moves said a strike on Iran “is not a question of whether but of when”, according to Israel’s Hayom News.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said “Dialogue does not mean surrender” and the Islamic Republic of Iran enters into dialogue with dignity, authority, and the protection of the rights of the nation, and will not retreat from the legal rights of the people and the country in any way.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met with Pakistan’s Interior Minister Naqvi in Tehran, while he considered the contradictory and exaggerated behaviour and positions of the US as a serious obstacle in the path of diplomacy.
- Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters commander warned the US and its allies against strategic mistakes, while he said Iran’s forces have become ready and will respond quickly and firmly to any new aggression from the enemies.
- Iranian Supreme Leader’s military advisor Rezaei said the iron fist of Iran’s armed forces and nation will force America to retreat and surrender.
- Israeli media said the main reason US President Trump postponed attacks on Iran is the Pentagon’s warning that Iran is strengthening its air defences, while senior Pentagon officials warned that Iran is enhancing its warplane detection capabilities and bolstering its air defences, according to Al Mayadeen. It was also reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Mehr News.
- Air defences were activated at Qeshm Island after the detection of micro drones, according to Tasnim.
- Four missiles targeted the headquarters of Kurdish separatist groups in Iraqi Kurdistan.
- Israeli drone strike was reported in Al-Qarara, Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip. It was separately reported that Hezbollah announced it attacked Israeli soldiers in the town of Rashaf, southern Lebanon with drones, while the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning for a building in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon.
- IAEA was informed by the UAE that off-site power was restored to Unit 3 of the Barakah NPP earlier today, following yesterday’s drone strike that caused a fire in an electrical generator near the site.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished mixed on what was a choppy performance as geopolitical headlines dominated price action, although the key development came late in the session after President Trump announced he had called off a planned attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday, following requests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Furthermore, Trump said Gulf allies had urged the US to delay military action as “serious negotiations” are now underway and expressed confidence that a deal acceptable to the US could still be reached, including guarantees preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, but added that officials will remain prepared for a large-scale assault at a moment’s notice should negotiations fail.
- SPX -0.08% at 7,403, NDX -0.45% at 26,091, DJI +0.32% at 49,686, RUT -0.61% at 2,776.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Kevin Warsh is to be sworn in as the next Fed Chair on Friday, according to Fox Business.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) said he is excited about Warsh becoming Fed Chair. Goolsbee also stated they have too high inflation and inflation has got to be at the front of mind when Warsh starts as Chair, while he noted the job market is stable.
- US President Trump announced that the number of drugs available on TrumpRx is to be increased by nearly 7 times and that over 600 generics are to be added to TrumpRx.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed following the choppy performance in US peers as geopolitical headlines dominated price action stateside, while there was an announcement late in the session on Monday by President Trump that he instructed defence officials to hold off on a planned attack on Iran that was scheduled for Tuesday. The decision followed a request from Middle East allies as serious negotiations were said to be taking place, and they had the opinion that a deal will be made, which would be very acceptable to the US, although Trump added that he further instructed top defence officials and the military to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, if an acceptable deal is not reached.
- ASX 200 was led higher by notable strength in the consumer, telecom, real estate and financial sectors, while the minutes from the RBA’s May meeting also noted that the board judged financial conditions would be somewhat restrictive after the May hike.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses as participants reflected on recent currency fluctuations, stronger-than-expected GDP data, and the potential ramifications for BoJ policy.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were rangebound with little fresh catalysts outside of geopolitics.
- US equity futures were lacklustre as geopolitical uncertainty lingered, despite US President Trump calling off Iran strikes.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.4% on Monday.
FX
- DXY was marginally firmer and got some slight reprieve after losing ground to its major peers yesterday, as recent price action across markets was largely driven by mixed geopolitical headlines, although the main development was President Trump’s announcement to postpone a strike on Iran that was planned for Tuesday following a request from Middle East allies. Aside from geopolitics, there was little else to spur price action in the dollar as reports that Warsh’s confirmation for Fed Chair is set for Friday, and comments from Fed’s Goolsbee, were met with a muted reaction.
- EUR/USD partially faded Monday’s choppy rebound with trade quiet amid light newsflow from the bloc, while the EU flagged a cut to the growth outlook and an increase in the inflation forecast due to the Iran war.
- GBP/USD slightly pulled back after yesterday’s outperformance, which was helped by potential leadership challenger, Andy Burnham, fully ruling out changing Chancellor Reeves’s fiscal rules if he became PM, while participants now await UK employment and earnings data.
- USD/JPY eked slight gains but with the upside capped by resistance around the 159.00 level and following recent fluctuations, as well as stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP data.
- Antipodeans retreated amid the mixed risk appetite and pressure in the metals complex, while the RBA Minutes from the May meeting noted that the board judged financial conditions would be somewhat restrictive after the May hike and that a hike would provide space to see how the Gulf conflict develops, as well as the response of households and businesses.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8375 vs exp. 6.7909 (prev. 6.8435).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures eked mild gains but with the upside capped following the prior day’s indecisive performance, as markets were fixated on mixed geopolitical headlines.
- Bund futures remained afloat in quiet trade and heading into supply with a EUR 5bln Bobl issuance scheduled later, followed by a similarly-sized Bund auction tomorrow.
- 10yr JGB futures pulled back after yesterday’s modest recovery and following better-than-expected Q1 GDP data.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were lower following the prior day’s choppy mood owing to mixed geopolitical headlines, although the main highlight was US President Trump calling off an attack on Iran that was planned for Tuesday following a request by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, with serious negotiations said to be taking place.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed a temporary 30-day general license to provide the most vulnerable nations with the ability to temporarily access Russian oil currently stranded at sea.
- Australian PM Albanese said Australia secured over 600k barrels of jet fuel and that three cargoes of jet fuel from China are expected to arrive from early June.
- Spot gold was subdued following its recent range-bound performance beneath the USD 4,600/oz level.
- Copper futures gradually extended declines with demand constrained amid the mixed risk appetite.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was indecisive and briefly climbed back above USD 77,000 before wiping out its gains.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- RBA Minutes from the May meeting stated the board judged financial conditions would be somewhat restrictive after the May hike and that a hike would provide space to see how the Gulf conflict develops, as well as the response of households and businesses. Board considered whether to hike by 25bps or to keep rates at 4.1%, while it was stated that for future decisions, the board agreed monetary policy could not alter the near-term trajectory of inflation, and also agreed Australian economic growth is likely to be below potential for some time. Furthermore, the board will do what is considered necessary to meet inflation and employment mandates, while the majority emphasised that core inflation was projected above target for an extended period.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q1) Q/Q 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. 0.1%, High. 0.7%)
- Japanese GDP Growth Annualised Prel (Q1) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.3%, Low. 0.4%, High. 2.9%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Chinese President Xi told US President Trump during their talks last week that Russian President Putin might end up regretting his invasion of Ukraine, according to FT.
OTHER
- Cuba’s leader warned on Monday of a “bloodbath” in the event of a US attack, while the US imposed new sanctions on the country’s intelligence agency and senior officials.
- Germany is to deploy a Patriot air defence system and 150 troops to Turkey, starting late June.
- UK was reportedly preparing a multibillion-pound cash injection into joint stealth fighter jet programme with Japan and Italy, according to FT.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK former Health Secretary Streeting is set to attack Chancellor Reeves’s record in a major escalation of Labour in-fighting, The I Paper reports. Streeting is expected to make the economy a new front of his leadership campaign, with allies accusing Reeves and Starmer of lacking ambition on growth.
- UK’s Andy Burnham fully ruled out changing Chancellor Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM. His team had previously left it open whether he might change them in the future, although his spokesperson told Bloomberg that he is explicitly ruling out any changes to the existing fiscal rules.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
JAPAN
Japanese Bonds Crater After PM Takaichi Prepares To Issue Much More Debt To Pay For Gasoline Subsidies
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 10:10 PM
While it may seem like every government these days – not just Emerging but certainly all Developing countries too – has become a banana republic in light of the increasingly more idiotic fiscal and monetary policies adopted to kick the can at least until the next election, nobody is quite as cartoonish as Japan, the place where all modern-day central bank experiments started in the late 1980s.
While on one hand the Japanese finance ministry and Bank of Japan have, in recent days and over the years, engaged in aggressive currency day trading, where they try to avoid a collapse in the yen by purchasing the currency in exchange for reserves such as US dollars, on the other hand, the same authorities have been, for the past 3 decades, been engaging in unlimited yen printing through perpetual QE (which despite the country’s soaring inflation and collapsing currency, goes on to this day even though Japan’s Yield Curve Control is taking a short break). End result: between the selling and buying of yen, the only thing Japanese officials have achieved is becoming the laughing stock of the world. Meanwhile, Japanese bond yields have exploded to multi-decade, if not record highs, as we showed last night.
One reason, besides all the other “usual suspects” such as soaring energy import costs, an grotesque inability to hike rates and contain inflation, not to mention relentless capital flight, is that as Reuters reported overnight, Japan’s government is likely to issue even more debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to cushion the economic blow from the Middle East war.
Of course, any additional debt issuance would further strain Japan’s already worsening finances and may accelerate rises in long-term interest rates. Actually, better make that “will” accelerate: the report pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) to 2.8% on Monday, its highest since October 1996, and the 30-year yield to a record top.
On Monday, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she had told Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama last week to start work on compiling a supplementary budget, a rather dramatic shift from previous remarks ruling out the chance of an extra budget.
The extra budget will focus on funding government subsidies to curb gasoline and utility bills, as surging oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict cloud the outlook for an economy heavily reliant on fuel imports from the region.
While the size of spending has yet to be worked out, the decision could cast doubt on the administration’s laughable pledge to pursue a “responsible, proactive” fiscal policy. Spoiler alert: there is no “responsible” fiscal policy when your debt/GDP is over 200%. You can only hope for a peaceful death.
And the market was quick to react.
“The about-face by Takaichi, who had been ruling out an extra budget all along, is making markets jittery and triggering a JGB selloff across the curve,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management.
In a proposal to the finance ministry, opposition party leader Yuichiro Tamaki called on Friday for an extra budget of about 3 trillion yen ($18.9 billion), which may serve as a benchmark for future debates on the size of spending.
“There’s a host of reason to sell JGBs but very few to buy,” Inadome said, adding that markets are starting to price in the chance of an extra budget to the scale of 5 trillion-to-10 trillion yen.
Finance minister Katayama, who is in Paris to attend the Group of Seven finance leaders’ gathering, said on Monday she was instructed by the prime minister to “minimise various risks,” when asked about the rise in long-term interest rates.
“That’s something I’m contemplating,” Katayama said when asked how the government would fund the extra budget. She did not elaborate.
Japan already curbs gasoline prices with subsidies and eyes tapping existing funds to revive subsidies for utility bills (which of course means no demand destruction due to artificially low prices, but instead the massive new debt needed to subsidize said spending, will instead translate into state and sovereign destruction). An extra budget would come on top of a record 122-trillion-yen budget for the fiscal year that began in April, which makes up the core of the dovish premier’s expansionary fiscal policy.
Critics warn that more spending plans, coupled with slow interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, could fan inflationary pressure in an economy already seeing rising energy costs from the Middle East war and higher import prices from a weak yen.
Japan’s Nikkei stock average fell on Monday and the yen hit 158.97 per dollar, the weakest level since April 29, and it’s about to explode even higher once the marker realizes the sheer idiocy of selling dollars to buy yen on one hand, and then turning around and doing QE – i.e., printing yen – to absorb all the new massive debt issuance about to hit a bond market where the BOJ has long since become a 50% holder of all JGBs and the marginal price setter.
“When countries like Japan and Britain contemplate fiscal stimulus, there’s a tendency for that to trigger a triple selling of shares, currencies, and bonds because their economic growth is weak and inflationary risks are high,” said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking.
The extra budget will be compiled around June or July, when the administration will lay out plans to boost investment and details for a two-year freeze on an 8% levy on food.
Reuters tongue-in-cheekly adds that “the bond selloff would also complicate the BOJ’s decision on whether to raise its short-term policy rate to 1% from 0.75% at its next meeting in June.” Uhm, no, it wouldn’t complicate it – it would make it an absolute farce as the last thing Japan needs if it is to sell even more debt, is higher rates. But then Tokyo better brace for a yen at 200 vs the dollar, unless the MOF is prepared to liquidate all of its USD-denominated reserves in an absolutely idiotic attempt to keep the yen from collapsing.
At the June meeting, the BOJ will also review its existing bond tapering programme and unveil a new plan for fiscal 2027 onward.
The war-induced spike in energy prices, coupled with rising import costs from the collapsing yen, pushed Japan’s wholesale inflation to a three-year high of 4.9% in April, bolstering the case for the central bank to raise rates as soon as next month.
While the BOJ tends to avoid shifting policy when markets are volatile, delaying rate hikes further could stoke already mounting fears it is behind the curve in addressing the risk of too-high inflation, analysts say. On the other hand, raising rates could spark an even more aggressive selloff across the curve, resulting in both a bond and FX market failure. Oops.
Markets have priced in roughly a 70% chance of a June rate hike after a slew of recent hawkish signals from the BOJ and a split vote to the BOJ’s decision to keep rates steady in April. Nearly two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise rates in June.
“If inflationary risks heighten, there’s a chance the BOJ could raise short-term rates to 1.5% by the March end of the current fiscal year,” said Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities. The 10-year yield could head towards 3%, she added.
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
3. CHINA/
Escobar On Xi’s “Constructive Strategic Stability”
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
If all of us are magnanimous enough, we might infer that Xi and Trump agreed on a three-year stability framework.
The headline on the front page of China Daily this past Thursday was a thunder and lightning “Red-carpet welcome for Trump in Beijing”.
Well, complete with electric jumpin’ children waving flowers and a visit to the Temple of Heaven, built in 1420, symbolizing the connection between heaven and humanity.
Youth meet tradition. The generation that will lead fully modernized China meets deep History. A dazed and confused POTUS could barely absorb a running masterclass in civilization.
Xi Dada was proverbially sharp: “We should be partners, not rivals.” The Exceptionals were stunned. All that after the non-stop litany of trade wars, tech sanctions, non-stop Taiwan hysteria, military encirclement, geoconomic confrontation, anti-China rhetoric.
Cool down. Be cool.
Oh, the twists and turns of the most important bilateral relation on the planet. Even as both economies are quite intertwined, bilateral trade in goods reached 4.01 trillion yuan ($590 million) in 2025. In global terms, that’s not exactly groundbreaking: only 8.8% of China’s total foreign trade.
At the state banquet, Xi’s sharp rhetorical dagger performed the feat of uniting MAGA and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation:
“The people of China and the United States are both great peoples, achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and making America great again, can go hand in hand.”
The barbarians were puzzled. Again.
Then Xi explained where we are, concisely. It took only one sentence:
“The transformation not seen in a century is accelerating across the globe, and the international situation is fluid and turbulent.”
Compare it to when he first referred to the “transformation”, in public, for a global audience: right after the meeting with Putin in the Kremlin in the Spring of 2023.
And then Xi immediately asked: “Can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major-country relations?”
As much as the Thucydides Trap is yet another feeble US ThinkTank-land concoction – the best analysts of Thucydides are Greeks and Italians, not the Beltway gang – Xi’s metaphor was actually stressing that China, now, is the leader of the new emerging order.
And it got here without firing a shot.
That “constructive strategic stability”
Xi then deployed his new vision for US-China relations – at least for the next 3 years – via a quite startling slogan: “constructive strategic stability” (italics mine).
Yet that presents three serious problems.
- The Empire of Chaos is not constructive: it’s destructive.
- It’s not strategic: at best it’s crudely tactical, tactics changing all the time.
- And it’s not about stability: it’s about instilling and deploying chaos, alongside lies, plunder and, as we see in Venezuela and especially Iran, piracy.
So Xi, rationally, cannot possibly expect “cooperation” from the Empire as “the mainstay” of the relationship, much less “healthy stability with competition within proper limits.”
If all of us are magnanimous enough, we might infer that Xi and Trump agreed on a three-year stability framework which should be interpreted as a structural reset – featuring cooperation first, then managed competition, and predictable peace as the end result.
Well, never forget we are dealing, in the immortal definition of Grandmaster Lavrov, with a “non-agreement capable” US.
And of course there’s the “Taiwan question”. Xi at his sharpest: “’Taiwan independence’ and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water”. The Americans must exercise “extra caution” in “handling the Taiwan question”.
Xi called it “the most important issue in China-US relations”. For Beijing, this is the ultimate red line. Team Trump may still not understand the stakes. Taiwan is the variable with the potential to reset the whole, optimistic three-year “peaceful” equation to zero.
And incidentally, American MSM spin that Xi traded non-interference by the US in Taiwan for “helping” the US in Iran is absolutely ridiculous. China and Iran have an all-evolving strategic partnership.
While all that was proceeding in Beijing, I had the pleasure of spending a long geopolitical lunch in Shanghai with the remarkable Li Bo, the general director of Guancha, the number one independent media in China, with at least 120 million daily followers.
Among other nuggets, Li Bo explained that Taiwan is not a problem for Beijing: it’s an internal matter that will be solved peacefully. The real problem is the rearming of Japan, especially now when under the frankly militaristic Sanae Takaichi administration.
Now for the real VIPs in the Trump-Xi show. After all the “evil empire” craze, the decoupling hysteria, the de-risking paranoia, the sanctions tsunami, the tariff tsunami, the war rhetoric, we have an oligarchic bunch with a collective market capitalization of over $10 trillion flying to Beijing to literally beg Xi Jinping, in person, for…deals.
Trump was estatic:
“I wanted the number one from each empire! Jensen Huang, Tim Cook, Elon Musk, and the other titans… the best in the world are here, right in front of you.”
Then, the clincher:
“They’re here today to pay respect to you and to China. They come hungry to do business, invest, and create. From our side, it’ll be 100% reciprocal.”
The “indispensable” nation paying tribute to the real 21st century geoeconomic empire. History will have a ball with it.
The keys to the new Temple of Heaven
Tesla, Apple, Boeing, GE Aerospace, everyone may desperately need China’s rare earths: China controls nearly 99% of the global processing capacity for rare-earth minerals. Yet China, structurally, and increasingly, does not need these American behemoths.
The combined revenue exposure to China across the top 12 companies represented by their CEOs on this trip is over $300 billion a year.
Musk needs to keep building Teslas – the Gigafactory, his primary export hub, is outside of Shanghai – without a 100% tariff. Jensen Huang needs chip export licenses so Nvidia may sell into this immense AI market (but China doesn’t need Nvidia anymore). Tim Cook needs Apple’s $70 billion China supply chain to remain steady.
The real problem is BlackRock’s Larry Fink avid for Chinese financial markets to “open up” for extra Wall Street profits (Li Bo told me at best the Chinese will let them open a little office in Hainan island…) Fink, moreover, is the actual new leader of the Davos gang, directly responsible for the funding of AI surveillance data centers all over the US.
The White House readout was beaming on “expanding market access for US businesses into China and increasing Chinese investment into US industries”; “increasing Chinese purchases of US agricultural products”; and Xi expressing “interest in purchasing more US oil”.
Yet there’s not a single word about any “trade discussions” coming from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.
So in theory we had this trillionaire CEO party eager to “open up” China for American business/trade. Business in Shanghai was definitely not impressed. After all China is actively building its own independence – it’s all enshrined in the targets of the new Five-Year Plan – while the US, via these trillionaire CEOs, essentially demonstrated the formalization of its own dependence.
While all this sound and fury was going on in Beijing, the Foreign Ministers of Russia, China (not Wang Yi, he remained in Beijing side by side with Xi), India and, crucially, Iran, and others, were in New Delhi for a very important BRICS summit focused on what Moscow defined as reforming the system of “global governance” with a predominant role for the Global South.
BRICS may be in a coma. But if there’s anyone capable of resurrecting it, it’s Grandmaster Lavrov and Russia, side by side with China and emerging global power Iran. Once again: it’s the new Primakov triangle, RIC (Russia-India-China) which will find the real keys to open a new Temple of Heaven.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
GERMANY/SPAIN
leftist PM Sanchez, a total nutjob welcomes in thousands of illegal imigrants
(zero hedge)
“Closely Monitoring The Situation”: Germany Fears Next Migration Wave After Spanish PM Welcomes Hundreds Of thousands Of Illegals
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 02:00 AM
With Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez legalizing what could amount to as many as 1.6 million migrants, other EU member states are getting worried, and not just neighboring France.
While the Socialist prime minister’s announcement originally aimed to naturalize some 500,000 migrants by handing them residency permits and work permits, German authorities estimate that there could be as many as 850,000 applicants in Spain, writes Bild. Leaked internal Spanish police documents have already put this estimated number even higher, at 1.6 million.
Since the announcement in mid-April, hordes of undocumented migrants have been overwhelming local offices across the country, with nearly 130,000 applications in the first week alone. Remix News posted videos of these crowds.
French conservatives sounded the alarm early on, with National Rally leader Jordan Bardella slamming the ability for residence permits to freely move around the EU.
“I believe that free movement within the Schengen Area should be reserved exclusively for nationals of European countries. Obtaining a residence permit in Spain, for example, should not allow free movement throughout all European Union countries,” he wrote.
Now, Germany’s Foreign Office in Berlin has stated: “We are closely monitoring the situation and are in contact with Spain.”
A spokesperson for the Interior Ministry also sought to clarify that a Schengen residence permit does not, in principle, authorize employment in Germany. Having one allows you to enter Germany and stay for a maximum of three months at a time.
The domestic policy spokesman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, Alexander Throm (CDU), also expressed his concerns, according to Bild: “Such mass legalization sends a devastating signal to the world and creates an incalculable pull effect.”
Police union representative Manuel Ostermann has also warned of potential consequences given that many entering Europe are attracted to German jobs and benefits.
“If the Spanish minority government fails, and a future government reduces payments or terminates residency permits, many of the migrants will continue their journey to Germany and remain here. Whether permitted or not,” he warned.
Of course, jobs in Germany are already becoming scarce, including over 120,000 industrial jobs being shed last year, and after years of mass immigration, the German economy continues to go from weakness ot weakness.
Germany has already had problems with secondary migration from Greece for years. Last April, the country’s Federal Administrative Court authorized migrant deportations to Greece for the first time in years.
Ostermann is now warning: “The migration crisis is not over. Germany must therefore consistently eliminate the remaining pull factors,” he says, adding that Germany should abolish “excessive financial incentives” and replace them with the principle of “bread and butter.”
EUROPE/BELARUS/RUSSIA
Belarus Rattles Europe With Drills Involving Russian Tactical Nukes
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 02:45 AM
The Belarusian Defense Ministry announced Monday that its specialized military units have kicked off surprise combat drills specifically focused on the deployment and use of tactical nuclear weapons, which is a sign of yet more atomic saber-rattling on Europe’s eastern flank.
According to the official statement blasted out across Telegram on Monday: “Today, in the interests of increasing the readiness of the armed forces for the use of modern weapons, including special ammunition, training of military units for the combat use of nuclear weapons and nuclear support has begun under the leadership of the chief of the General Staff of the armed forces,” the ministry wrote.
The Kremlin-aligned state is moving hardware and testing infrastructural elements required to field atomic ordnance.
According to the ministry, the drills are designed to verify the readiness of weapons and military equipment to execute combat operations out of non-traditional, surprise launch areas.
Dual-capable delivery platforms have reportedly been been moved into position: “Military units of the missile forces and aviation are involved in the event. During the training, in cooperation with the Russian side, it is planned to practice delivering nuclear weapons and preparing them for use,” the ministry said.
But interestingly, Belarus’s Ministry of Defense also stressed that this event “is not directed against third countries and poses no threat to security in the region.”
Belarusian drills are typically deeply integrated to ‘Union State’ operations. Under a formal mutual defense pact, Moscow has long pledged that any attack threatening the very existence of Belarus could be met with a Russian nuclear response.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has at the same time long welcomed and touted that ally President Putin authorized the stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which borders Poland.
This has long been a major concern of NATO, and the nukes were reportedly transferred there – under the oversight of Russian military officers – in the context of the escalating Ukraine war and threats and counter-threats hurled between Moscow and the West.
Ukraine and Europe are predictably quite angry and nervous over the development, naturally. A Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement said, “By turning Belarus into its nuclear staging ground near NATO borders, the Kremlin is de facto legitimizing the proliferation of nuclear weapons worldwide and setting a dangerous precedent for other authoritarian regimes.”
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
IRAN VS ISRAEL/USA
Trump says ‘very good chance’ of Iran deal after postponing planned US strike
“There seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out. If we can do that without bombing the hell out of them, I would be very happy,” Trump told reporters.
President Donald Trump mimics firing a gun during a news conference in the White House briefing room about the war in Iran on Monday, April 6, 2026.(photo credit: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/JTA)ByJAMES GENN, SHOSHANA BAKERMAY 18, 2026 22:20Updated: MAY 19, 2026 05:58
Hours after US President Donald Trump postponed a planned military attack on Iran on Monday, he told reporters that there was a “very good chance” the United States could reach an agreement with Iran to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
“There seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out. If we can do that without bombing the hell out of them, I would be very happy,” he stated.
He added, regarding the possible agreement, “It’s a very positive development, but we’ll see whether it amounts to anything.” Trump also pointed out that there have been prior times when US officials thought a deal was imminent, but he reiterated that this time is “a little bit different.”
Earlier on Monday, Trump mentioned in a Truth Social post that leaders of Gulf states had requested that he hold off on striking Iran.
Trump was originally planning to carry out the strikes on Tuesday, he wrote.
The leaders mentioned in the post were Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and UAE President Sheik Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
“Based on my respect for the above-mentioned leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and the United States Military that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow,” Trump said.
“Serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond,” he wrote.
Trump holds firm on no nuclear weapons for Iran
“This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!” he added.
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Trump has “further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached,” he added.
In an interview with the New York Post on Monday, Trump stated that he is “not open” to making any concessions to Tehran following Iran’s disappointing response to peace deal negotiations.
“I can tell you they want to make a deal more than ever because they know what’s going to be happening soon,” Trump said.
When asked about his previous comment on Friday, in which he expressed a willingness to accept a 20-year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment, Trump replied, “I’m not open to anything right now.”
Reuters contributed to this report.
END
IRAN VS ISRAEL/USA
if so, then just use the blocade and bankrupt Iran
(zerohedge)
Pentagon Urged No Resumption Of Strikes As Iran Grew More Effective Tracking US Air Ops: NYT
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 08:45 AM
President Trump had on Monday announced he agreed to pause planned Iran strikes, which were supposedly going to resume Tuesday, because UAE & Saudi Arabia asked him to as they said the sides are getting close to a deal.
However, Pentagon officials have told The New York Times they urged halting of strikes because of intelligence shows Iran has grown more effective at tracking US air operations and strengthening its air defenses, making the potential for significant aerial losses by the US a greater likelihood in any new major campaign in Iran’s skies.
“Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump described that the Arab states requested the delay because “serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond.”
But in a fresh report titled “Trump Threatens Iran and Then Pulls Back, All in the Same Day” – The NY Times pushed back with the following:
Iran has used the ceasefire to successfully dig out all bombed ballistic missile sites, making them fully operational again. Iran also moved a large number of new mobile launchers across the entire country and adjusted tactics for any resumption of strikes, per a US military official. Iranian commanders studied US fighter jet and bomber flight patterns with close Russian and Chinese help. The recent downing of an F-15E and groundfire striking an F-35 revealed American flight tactics had become “too predictable.”
While kinetic operations have been paused since Trump declared a ceasefire on April 8, Tehran was apparently treating the diplomatic timeout as a massive engineering and re-arming window. US officials have on several occasions hinted at this reality, as has Trump himself at times.
To complicate any future American target lists, the Iranian military has also reportedly dispersed a massive fleet of new mobile missile launchers across the entire country, completely overhauling their deployment tactics ahead of any potential resumption of US strikes.
In essence, despite the US touting total aerial superiority in the 38-days of initial bombing, Tehran has effectively neutralized the impact of the initial air campaign. If or when the ceasefire officially collapses, Washington could be looking at a heavily upgraded, highly adaptable adversary.
Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has this week declared that Iran was “prepared for all scenarios,” as cited in state IRIB.
“The Americans must either submit to diplomacy and our conditions or submit to the power of our missiles,” he added.
When the White House first initiated Operation Epic Fury, it was hyped as presenting the opportunity for a clean tactical victory likely to result in swift regime change; however, it has officially morphed into yet another classic, grinding Washington Mideast dilemma. President Trump now finds himself boxed into a high-stakes corner with no easy exit ramp in sight – he can appear ‘weak’ through inaction, or pursue escalation and potential quagmire with likely disastrous economic and political consequences at home.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Trump: May Have To Give Iran Another “Big Hit” – It Has “Two Or Three” Days To Come To Table
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 11:39 AM
Update(1140ET): President Trump has on Tuesday while fielding questions from reporters repeated his line that Iran is ‘begging’ for a deal. “They’re begging to make a deal. I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit. We may have to give them another big hit. You’ll know very soon.”
His threat to give them another “big hit” was coupled with the assertion that he was just one hour away from ordering new attacks on Iran Monday, but was asked by Gulf allies to given diplomacy just a little longer:
Trump: “I was an hour away” from striking Iran on Monday.
There was also the below moment where he again talked timeline, saying he’s ready to resume military action in a few ‘days’ if Iran doesn’t comply:
Iran for its part says it stands ready to “confront aggression” and remains in a high state of military alert.
Also, tensions with nearby Gulf states are still soaring, and amid reports that drones have recently been launched from Iraqi territory – likely the work of Shia paramilitary organizations which are closely allied with Iran.
* * *
In a huge and unexpected announcement, amid stalled US-Iran peace talks – which have proven a failure and illusive thus far, NATO now says it could deploy military assets to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Per breaking newswires Tuesday late morning:
NATO TO CONSIDER HORMUZ DEPLOYMENT IF STRAIT NOT OPEN BY JULY
President Trump has continuously chastised the NATO alliance for being largely bankrolled by Washington but at the same time fence-sitting when it comes to forming a coalition to patrol and reopen the vital energy transit waterway. Oil plummeted on the initial headline, seeing in it a positive for the potential that crude transit in the Persian Gulf could again be opened up soon:
And Bloomberg freshly reports:
NATO is discussing the possibility of helping ships pass through the blocked Strait of Hormuz if the waterway isn’t reopened by early July, according to a senior official in the military alliance.
The idea has support from several members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but doesn’t yet have the necessary unanimous support, said a diplomat from a NATO country. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity. Leaders from NATO countries will meet in Ankara July 7-8.
But July feels very far away at this point, and anything could happen between now and then, as Washington continues to threaten renewed military action, and Iran says it remains on high alert.
NATO defense chiefs are meeting this week, where also high on the agenda will be the following:
At this week’s summit, military chiefs from all 32 member states will examine the impact that consistent rapid consumption may have on NATO’s collective capabilities and deterrent power as Russia continues to threaten allies.
END
Iran Now Has More Incentive To Resist US Demands, Even If War Restarts: Israeli Think Tank
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 01:20 PM
At this point even hawkish Israeli think tank pundits are increasingly admitting that Iran currently has certain leverage and an edge when it comes to dealing with the United States, and the so far stalled and failed peace talks to end the war.
President Trump has just described that he called off planned renewed airstrikes on Iran, at the request of Gulf allies – who claim efforts toward getting back to the table and reaching a deal are close, despite that Iran’s position on its nuclear program has not budged.
When the White House first initiated Operation Epic Fury, it was hyped as presenting the opportunity for a clean tactical victory likely to result in swift regime change (Venezuela-style); however, it has officially morphed into yet another classic, grinding Washington Mideast dilemma – just as critics loudly warned would happen.
President Trump now finds himself boxed into a high-stakes corner with no easy exit ramp in sight – he can appear ‘weak’ through inaction, or pursue escalation and potential quagmire with likely disastrous economic and political consequences at home. In such situations each new and ‘next’ military action which gets presented as a ‘way forward’ actually often serves to make a conflict more unpredictable, sinking the US into a deeper escalation trap.
And now enter aforementioned Israeli think tank hawks. Raz Zimmt, the Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), has pointed out that Trump’s pull-back from ‘planned’ new airstrikes will leave Tehran leaders with some clear conclusions. It should be remembered that the INSS, which is affiliated with Tel Aviv University, is Israel’s most premier defense establishment think tank.
“Whether or not it was indeed requested to do so by the rulers of the Gulf states, Tehran draws two main conclusions this morning from the president’s statement,” Zimmt, whose work is often promoted by Axios Barak Ravid, began in a thread on X (machine translated).
Here’s how the Israel-based pundit lays it out (emphasis ZH):
A. It has once again been proven that Trump is not interested in war. From Tehran’s perspective, this does not mean there will be no war, and therefore it is preparing for a resumption of hostilities. However, this strengthens its perception that the fear in the US and the Gulf of the consequences of renewing the campaign outweighs the fear in Iran.
B. It is impossible (and this too, of course, is not a new insight in Tehran) to rely on any word coming from Trump’s mouth or keyboard in his endless frenzy. Therefore, not only must it refrain from agreeing to concessions that amount to capitulation to US demands—for example, forgoing nuclear capabilities, such as enrichment infrastructure, and not just the products of the program, such as uranium enriched to 60%—but it must continue to insist, already in the first stage, on security and economic guarantees: a complete end to the war, easing of sanctions or unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets, and management arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz that express recognition of Iran’s control over the strait. And the problem is that it is doubtful whether this perception will change even in a scenario of renewed hostilities, unless a way is found to incorporate within its framework an action or actions that succeed in denying or significantly weakening one of the two cards in Iran’s hand: control of Hormuz and the nuclear assets.
President Trump on Monday actually said “hopefully, maybe forever” when asked about the decision to delay the Iran attack. This was certainly not missed in Tehran.
Meanwhile, as of Tuesday Reuters is reporting that the five key elements of Iran’s new proposal to the US to end the war include the following:
- US troops leaving areas close to Iran
- The US paying war reparations
- Lifting sanctions on Iran
- Release Iran’s frozen assets
- Ending the US blockade
And so both sides continue to insist on not moving away from their initial demands and conditions, with barely any compromise visible, in a perpetuation of the zero sum game and standoff, also as the Hormuz Strait continues to be de facto blocked to the vast majority of maritime transit.
ISRAEL TBN.
END
HAMAS
JERUSALEM POST
How Hamas’s internal cracks are becoming impossible for Gazans to ignore – opinion
Questions are now growing inside Gaza about whether Hamas still possesses the same solid popular base that once gave the movement its legitimacy after taking control of the Strip in 2007.
Gunmen stand guard at the funeral of Marwan Issa, a senior Hamas deputy military commander who was killed in an Israeli airstrike during the conflict between Israel and Hamas, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in the central Gaza Strip, February 7, 2025.
(photo credit: REUTERS/Ramadan Abed)
ByMOHAMMED ALTOOLLMAY 19, 2026 00:48
In the Middle East, defining moments are not always measured by the size of an explosion or the number of casualties. Sometimes, they are measured by the reaction that follows. After Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the killing of Haddad, one of Hamas’s most prominent military council commanders, what drew attention inside Gaza was not only the assassination itself, but the silence that followed it.
Silence in Gaza speaks louder than slogans
In previous years, funerals of senior Hamas commanders often turned into massive public displays of loyalty and defiance. Streets would fill with crowds, chants, and military symbolism. This time, however, many Gazans noticed something different. The turnout appeared smaller, public enthusiasm seemed weaker, and social media reactions revealed emotions rarely expressed so openly before: exhaustion, indifference, and in some cases, even schadenfreude.
These reactions did not come only from Hamas’s political opponents or from civilians devastated by years of war and economic collapse. Some also appeared to come from individuals previously associated with Hamas’s own social environment. Many revived old conversations about internal rivalries, repression, and the atmosphere of fear that has shaped life in Gaza for years.
In a politically closed and deeply conservative society like Gaza, shifts in public opinion are not always expressed through demonstrations or polls. Sometimes they are reflected in whispers, in silence, or in what people choose not to do. For many Gazans, the relatively weak public response to Haddad’s funeral carried a deeper political and social message.
The growing collapse of factional legitimacy
Questions are now growing inside Gaza about whether Hamas still possesses the same solid popular base that once gave the movement its legitimacy after taking control of the Strip in 2007. After years of war, blockade, displacement, and economic collapse, many Gazans no longer view political factions through the same ideological lens. Priorities have changed. People increasingly want electricity, safety, freedom of movement, jobs, and education more than revolutionary slogans.
At the same time, Hamas recently allowed Fatah to hold its eighth conference inside Gaza under the protection of Hamas-controlled police forces, while statements attributed to Yasser Abbas, son of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, accused Hamas of carrying out a “military coup” against the Palestinian Authority. For many Gazans, this contradiction raised difficult questions. How can Fatah continue to describe Hamas as its political and military rival while simultaneously coordinating with it on the ground in Gaza?
For residents who lived through the violent 2007 Hamas-Fatah split, such scenes reinforce the growing belief that Palestinian division has evolved into a closed political system in which both sides reproduce their own power structures while ordinary civilians remain excluded from meaningful political representation.
On social media, many Gazans criticized Fatah’s eighth conference as yet another recycling of aging leadership figures incapable of offering a realistic vision for Gaza’s future or involving younger generations in political decision-making. Yet frustration is no longer directed at Fatah alone. Hamas itself is facing what may be the deepest crisis of public trust since it seized control of Gaza nearly two decades ago.
Old internal Hamas rivalries resurface
Following Haddad’s death, discussions resurfaced around the case of Mohammed Shtaywi, a senior commander in Hamas’s military wing who was killed in 2016 under highly controversial circumstances. Hamas claimed at the time that he had been executed over security and moral accusations, but his family rejected the official narrative and publicly accused influential figures within Hamas, including Yahya Sinwar and other military leaders, of orchestrating his killing as part of an internal power struggle.
After Haddad’s assassination, activists from Gaza revisited Shtaywi’s story as a symbol of long-standing internal divisions within Hamas. Some online reactions from individuals perceived as close to Hamas expressed indirect satisfaction over Haddad’s death, viewing him as part of a harsh internal era marked by repression, internal purges, and hidden rivalries.
The anger was not limited to Hamas’s political enemies or civilians affected by war. It also appeared among families and individuals who believe that years of internal conflict within Hamas itself left deep wounds inside Gazan society. For some, Haddad’s death revived memories of former Hamas members and insiders who disappeared, were imprisoned, or were eliminated during years of factional tension and internal disputes.
Such transformations are not unique in the history of armed movements or authoritarian systems. In Syria, for example, during the rule of Bashar al-Assad, moments of quiet public relief occasionally emerged after the fall or death of figures once considered untouchable pillars of the regime. Similar patterns have appeared in other ideological or militant systems throughout the Middle East, where internal fractures often surface first within the ruling movement’s own support base before becoming visible politically.
Comparable dynamics could also be seen historically among factions linked to the Iranian Revolution after 1979, as well as among armed political groups in Lebanon and Iraq, where prolonged control, internal rivalries, and authoritarian structures gradually eroded trust even among traditional loyalists.
Gazans searching for life beyond ideology
Today in Gaza, that erosion has become increasingly visible. Many residents no longer feel genuinely represented by any political faction. Even those who still retain some organizational loyalty have become more willing to criticize their own leaders openly or indirectly, especially after the most recent war and the unprecedented scale of destruction, displacement, and civilian suffering.
On a personal level, I still remember meeting Haddad in the streets of Jabalia after the “We Want to Live” protests. He told me then: “You want to overthrow a movement blessed by God?” I replied: “If the results of your rule were truly a blessing, people would already be thanking God for them.” The exchange ended calmly, with a tense smile rather than confrontation, but it remained for me a reflection of the widening gap between the rhetoric of power and the daily suffering of ordinary Gazans.
In Gaza today, people no longer fear only war or Israel. Increasingly, they fear the continuation of the same political reality without change. For years, many Gazans believed Israel preferred Hamas to remain in power as part of a strategy of managing the conflict. The assassination of senior Hamas military figures has complicated that perception. Yet for ordinary people, the central question is no longer who kills whom, but who can rebuild a normal life amid endless destruction.
Gazans today are not searching for another ideological victory. They are searching for an end to permanent collapse. They want civilian leadership capable of rebuilding society rather than merely managing conflict. They want schools without fear, jobs without dependency, and families able to live without constant displacement.
For that reason, the funeral of Haddad may ultimately represent more than the death of a military commander. It may reflect a deeper social and political turning point inside Gaza itself, one suggesting that fear is slowly weakening, that traditional factional loyalty is eroding, and that many Gazans, despite everything, are beginning to search for a different future, even if its shape remains uncertain.
END
SAUDI ARABIA/PAKISTAN
Pakistan Deploys Thousands Of Troops, Jet Fighter Squadron To Saudi Arabia
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defense pact, Reuters reported on Monday, citing security and government officials.
The officials described the Pakistani deployment as a “substantial, combat-capable force intended to support Saudi Arabia’s military if the kingdom comes under further attack,” Reuters wrote.
Pakistan’s military cooperation with the Saudi kingdom is expanding amid threats by the US and Israel to renew military operations against Iran, which ceased following the announcement of a ceasefire on April 8.
During the war, Iran carried out attacks against US military bases and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia in response to the kingdom’s support for the US and Israeli aggression.
Saudi Arabia responded by launching numerous unpublicized strikes on Iran. However, Riyadh has sought in recent weeks to de-escalate the conflict, while Islamabad has served as a mediator in talks between Washington and Tehran.
The defense agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan reportedly requires both Islamic countries to come to each other’s defense in the event of an attack.
Reuters noted that Saudi Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has previously suggested the agreement offers Saudi Arabia protection under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella.
According to the sources speaking with the news agency, Pakistan has deployed a full squadron of around 16 warplanes, including JF-17 fighters made jointly with China, two squadrons of drones, and around 8,000 troops. Pakistan has pledged to send additional troops if needed, as well as a Chinese HQ-9 air defense system.
Both countries benefit from the alliance, as Pakistan has a large military due to its decades-long conflict with India, while Saudi Arabia provides badly needed foreign currency to Pakistan’s heavily indebted government.
Talks are reportedly underway to bring both Turkiye and Qatar into the Saudi–Pakistani alliance.
Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif revealed during an interview with Hum News on 11 May that a deal to bring Turkiye and Qatar into the mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia is being “finalized.”
“If Qatar and Turkiye also join the existing agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, it would create significant cooperation in both the economic and defense spheres in our region and reduce external dependence,” Asif told Pakistan-based Hum News, adding that their inclusion would be “a welcome development.”
Last week, the Financial Times (FT) reported that Saudi Arabia has “floated” the possibility of reaching a “non-aggression pact” between Iran and neighboring states modeled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which eased tensions during the Cold War in Europe.
The Saudi-proposed pact for the day after the US-Israeli war on Iran ends reportedly has support from several European capitals, which view it as “the best way to avoid future conflict” and have urged Arab states to support it.
The British daily cites an unnamed Arab diplomat who says that such a pact would be welcomed “by most Arab and Muslim states, as well as by Iran,” although concerns remain about Israel’s continued threats to reignite the war regardless of any deal.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS COMMENTARIES
Almost All Non-Iran Tankers That Entered The Persian Gulf During The War, Have Successfully Exited With A Cargo
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 07:40 PM
Despite a near-halt in daily Hormuz traffic, Bloomberg reports that almost all large non-Iranian tankers that have entered the Persian Gulf during the war appear to have successfully exited with a cargo, underscoring the emergence of a small group of shipowners willing to risk crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
At least 19 oil- and liquefied petroleum gas-carrying ships without Iranian links have both entered and exited Hormuz since March 1, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In contrast, about 100 such tankers that entered the Gulf before the conflict remain stuck for fear of attacks, the data show.
As noted above, merchant shipping through the vital energy chokepoint has – for the most part – ground to a halt since US-Israeli attacks at the end of February triggered a wave of Iranian retaliation and led Tehran to tighten its grip over the waterway. Yet a handful of vessels have been managing to cross under an array of schemes, including deals arranged at a government level (with payment in bitcoin) in some cases (and keep in mind that the numbers, both for ships stranded in the Gulf and those making the crossing, could be higher in reality, given many vessels in the region are switching off their satellite signals to protect against strikes).
Of the 19 ships to cross, seven have been linked to Greece’s Dynacom Tankers Management. The company has been one of the main firms to continue using the strait since the conflict began. In true honey badger form, the company is known to turn off its ship transponders and then to quietly make the Hormuz crossing usually under the cover of night. It is unclear if Dynacom had arranged any special arrangement with Tehran ahead of its crossings.
The cargoes the vessels were carrying have largely been from the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. Of the rest, three were transporting oil from Saudi Arabia or a mix of oil from the kingdom and other Arab Gulf nations.
Only one large tanker that entered the Gulf after the war started hasn’t left, the data show.
The crossings are only a fraction of the typical Hormuz transits before the war, which accounted for about a fifth of the world’s oil supply.
END
NONSENSE!!
Oil Plummets As NATO Mulls Hormuz Deployment If Strait Not Open By July
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 10:20 AM
In a huge and unexpected announcement, amid stalled US-Iran peace talks – which have proven a failure and illusive thus far, NATO now says it could deploy military assets to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Per breaking newswires Tuesday late morning:
NATO TO CONSIDER HORMUZ DEPLOYMENT IF STRAIT NOT OPEN BY JULY
President Trump has continuously chastised the NATO alliance for being largely bankrolled by Washington but at the same time fence-sitting when it comes to forming a coalition to patrol and reopen the vital energy transit waterway. Oil plummeted on the initial headline, seeing in it a positive for the potential that crude transit in the Persian Gulf could again be opened up soon:
And Bloomberg freshly reports:
NATO is discussing the possibility of helping ships pass through the blocked Strait of Hormuz if the waterway isn’t reopened by early July, according to a senior official in the military alliance.
The idea has support from several members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but doesn’t yet have the necessary unanimous support, said a diplomat from a NATO country. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity. Leaders from NATO countries will meet in Ankara July 7-8.
But July feels very far away at this point, and anything could happen between now and then, as Washington continues to threaten renewed military action, and Iran says it remains on high alert.
NATO defense chiefs are meeting this week, where also high on the agenda will be the following:
At this week’s summit, military chiefs from all 32 member states will examine the impact that consistent rapid consumption may have on NATO’s collective capabilities and deterrent power as Russia continues to threaten allies.
developing…
END
Iran’s Floating Oil Stockpile Jumps 65% As U.S. Naval Blockade Bites
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 02:20 PM
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
The volumes of Iranian oil stored at tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz have jumped in recent weeks as Iran considers ways to circumvent the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman aimed at choking Iranian oil exports.
The number of tankers laden with crude but sitting in the Persian Gulf and near the Strait of Hormuz has jumped since the U.S. initiated in the middle of April a naval blockade to prevent Iranian oil exports and force Tehran into a deal, a Financial Times analysis of shipping and satellite imagery data showed on Tuesday.
Data from the U.S.-based non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) showed that the number of tankers in the Gulf laden with Iranian crude and petrochemicals has now jumped to 49, up from 29 before the U.S. blockade began on April 13.
Separately, UANI and FT have identified more than a dozen tankers clustered near the Iranian port Chabahar outside the Strait of Hormuz but within the line of the U.S. blockade.
Ship-tracking and maritime intelligence analyses pointed three weeks ago that Iranian tankers laden with oil were loitering in a cluster near the port of Chabahar. The cluster signals that Iran continues to load oil on Iranian tankers that are trying to leave the Middle East region. On the other hand, the piling up of ships outside the Strait of Hormuz but inside the U.S. blockade line suggests that the American interception of vessels is working.
About 42 million barrels of Iranian crude are now sitting on Iranian tankers, many of these old vessels, in the Middle East, a 65% surge compared to the beginning of the war, per Kpler estimates cited by FT.
Loadings at Kharg Island, Iran’s key export port, have come to a standstill, maritime intelligence firm Windward said in a report last week.
“At the same time, dark tanker concentrations across northern Hormuz, eastern Hormuz, and Chabahar indicate that Iran is increasingly relying on protected holding zones to buffer export capacity and manage outbound flows,” Windward’s analysts said.
“Persistent ship-to-ship transfer activity, bunkering operations, and prolonged dark anchorage behavior reinforce indications that covert cargo-transfer and sanctions evasion operations are expanding inside Iranian territorial waters.”
END
Memorial Day Gas Demand Surge Collides With Hormuz Shock As $5 Demand-Destruction Line Nears
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 03:40 PM
Drivers heading into Memorial Day weekend are set to face some of the highest regular gasoline prices at the pump in years.
With the U.S. national average sitting at $4.53 per gallon (according to AAA data) and no resolution yet on a U.S.-Iran peace deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, pump prices risk rising even higher into the holiday weekend as the summer driving season begins.
Let’s start with the chart of the day: AAA retail gas prices in the U.S. on a seasonal basis closely track the 2022 run, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict was in its first several months.
Gas prices in 2022 did not top out until mid-June.
The impending problem, with no near-term Hormuz resolution, as JPMorgan analysts recently warned, is that the world is spiraling toward a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of crude oil if the maritime chokepoint remains blocked into June.
Former CIA analysts and current RBC commodities head Helima Croft told clients days ago that she is “very skeptical of a June grand reopening or even that maritime traffic will return to February 27 levels for the foreseeable future.”
AAA Retail Gas Price Map
For Memorial Day 2026, AAA forecasts around 39.1 million Americans will travel by car, representing 87% of all holiday travelers. That will create a meaningful near-term lift in gas demand, especially from Thursday through Monday.
EIA notes that gas demand typically rises into the summer driving season, while last year’s Memorial Day period coincided with the highest weekly implied gas demand of 2025 up to that point.
So, in an already tight gas market, a busy Memorial Day driving weekend can certainly pull more barrels through the system, support pump prices, and may only lead to higher prices if no Hormuz resolution is found in the near term. The demand destruction level sits around $5.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA/USA
STUPID
US Dept Of War Suspends Permanent Joint Board On Defense With Canada
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 12:20 PM
Authored by ‘sundance’ via The Last Refuge,
Remarkably, many news articles are citing confusion in trying to understand why U.S. Undersecretary of War, Elbridge Colby, announced the suspension of U.S. participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense with Canada.
However, the announcement comes immediately after his meeting with U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, at the Pentagon and the comment, “we’re working closely to ensure every NATO partner, including Canada, reaches the Hague Summit’s 3.5% GDP defense spending target, a vital investment for North American and Arctic defense.”
The issue, as outlined by Undersecretary Colby, centers around Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent statements in antagonism toward the U.S., a public announcement that Canada would not be purchasing U.S. military equipment and the biggest issue of all, that Canada is not living up to the NATO defense spending agreements.
It was in December of 2024, immediately after the November election where Donald Trump won, when then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago for dinner with President Trump and told him there’s no way that Canada could meet their NATO obligations.
Canada had relied on the USA to provide all national defense and was 16th in defense spending at 1.1% of GDP. {CITATION}
The issue of NATO compliance was part of a larger discussion around trade imbalances, non-tariff barriers, intellectual property conflicts and legislative hurdles that Canada used as a crutch to retain economic benefit without reciprocity.
Trudeau was arguing that Canada could not change all the points of conflict, drop their non-tariff barriers, comply with NATO demands and simultaneously get into total alignment with the USMCA trade compact (CUSMA to Canada), because their climate policies did not support or match the heavy industrial processing capabilities of both the United States and Mexico.
This triggered President Trump to respond with the 51st state, notation.
Essentially, if you cannot be a partner with equal capabilities; and if you need to retain structural economic dependency; then Canada should just become a 51st state of the USA.
Since that time, things went downhill quickly. Instead of trying to find ways to eliminate points of conflict, Prime Minister Mark Carney began a campaign of aggressive anti-Trump narrative distribution in order to maximize domestic political benefits.
President Trump then turned toward Mexico and began working with USTR Jamieson Greer to construct what is essentially a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and Mexico.
The administration began ignoring Canada, planning instead to announce the upcoming dissolution of the USMCA and then force Canada to negotiate a bilateral. A jilted Canada then began doubling and tripling down on the anti-Trumpism, with Carney saying the era of trade between the USA and Canada is over.
Carney then reached out to Europe and China for trade replacement value and began making announcements about no longer purchasing U.S. manufactured fighter jets and military hardware.
U.S. Undersecretary of War, Elbridge Colby meets with U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, and obviously the NATO stuff is just the straw that ended the U.S. participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defense with Canada. Not a complicated timeline to figure out.
WASHINGTON – […] “A strong Canada that prioritizes hard power over rhetoric benefits us all,” Colby said.
“Unfortunately, Canada has failed to make credible progress on its defense commitments. DoW is pausing the Permanent Joint Board on Defense to reassess how this forum benefits shared North American defense.
“We can no longer avoid the gaps between rhetoric and reality. Real powers must sustain our rhetoric with shared defense and security responsibilities,” he continued. “Delivering on shared continental defense begins by recognizing our shared geography. Only by investing in our own defense capabilities will Americans and Canadians be safe, secure, and prosperous.”
It’s unclear why Colby made the announcement on Monday, given that Carney’s Davos speech was months ago.
Minutes before the announcement, Colby posted a photograph of himself meeting with the U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, at the Pentagon, though he did not specify when the meeting took place.
“We’re working closely to ensure every NATO partner, including Canada, reaches the Hague Summit’s 3.5% GDP defense spending target, a vital investment for North American and Arctic defense,” he wrote along with the photo.
Carney’s relationship with President Donald Trump has fractured in recent months over several different issues, including the former’s address at Davos. (read more)
Every trade and economic associated agency within the Trump administration is in alignment, and the elimination of the USMCA with Canada is clearly at the end of this path.
However, if you can find one in one-hundred Canadians who understand or accept this destination, I would be surprised.
A mass formation psychosis has fallen upon the land of Canada, and the overwhelming majority of Canadians just repeat, “Trump bad.”
It’s weird.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1631 UP 0.0024
USA/ YEN 159.06 UP 0.198 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3396 DOWN 0.0034 OR 34 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3756 UP 0.0017 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 17 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 38.01 PTS OR 0.92%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 122.67 PTS OR 0.48%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0401%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 122.67 PTS OR 0.48%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.01 OR 0.92%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.40%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 75.45 PTS OR 0.12%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4544.10
silver:$76.47
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.58 PLUS 0 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 71.46 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 98 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.0740 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.727 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.693 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.351 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early TUESDAY MORNING: 99.09 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.563% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.815% UP 7 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.176 UP 6 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.626 UP 6 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.984 UP 8 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.192 UP 7 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1604 DOWN 0.0051 OR 51 basis points
USA/Japan: 159.13 UP 0.260 OR YEN IS DOWN 26 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.1280 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.787 UP 2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 29 BASIS pts to 1.3768
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The USA/Yuan CNY DOWN TO 6.8070// ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.8135
TURKISH LIRA: 45.58 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.668.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.184 UP 6 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.110 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4475.30
SILVER AT 10;00: 73.28
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 6.80 PTS OR 0.09%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 92.73 OR 0.33%
FRANCE: CLOSED DOWN 5.73 PTS PTS PTS OR 0.07%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 85.26 PTS OR 0.48 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 314.16 PTS OR 0.65%
WTI Oil price 108.30 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 111.18 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 71.07 ROUBLE UP 1 AND 39 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.733 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.375 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1603 DOWN 0.0051 OR 51 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3399 DOWN 0.0032 OR 32 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.1280 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.802 DOWN 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.794 UP 7 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 4.151 UP 6 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 159.06 UP 0.187 OR YEN DOWN 19 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3749 UP 0.0011 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 108.59
Brent OIL: 111.45
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.674
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 4 PTS to 5.177%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.118 UP 3 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.705 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.354 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.24 UP 4 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.58 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 71.20 UP 1 AND 28/100 roubles //
GOLD $4488.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 74.05 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 321.75 OR 0.65%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 175.53 PTS OR 0.61%
VOLATILITY INDEX 18/14 UP 0.32 PTS OR 1.80%
GLD: $ 411.52 DOWN 6.91 PTS OR 1.65%
SLV/ $66.88 PTS DOWN 3.06 OR OR 4.58%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DIWB 81.66 PTS 0.24%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Dip-Buyers Rescue Stocks (ish) From Bond Bloodbath Ahead Of NVDA Earnings; Oil Up, Gold Down
WRAP UP
USA DATA RELEASE
“Cautious Optimism”: US Pending Home Sales Rise For 3rd Straight Month In April
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 10:08 AM
Pending home sales were expected to rise for the third straight month in April (after crashing to record lows to end last year) as mortgage rates stabilized amid war worries, and they did, rising 1.4% MoM (better than the 1.0% expected) with March’s gains revised higher too.
Source: Bloomberg
This left pending home sales up 3.35% YoY – the best annual gain since Nov 2024 – lifting the index off record lows…
Source: Bloomberg
The report suggests the housing market was finding some footing entering the busiest selling season of the year, helped by gradually improving affordability since mid-2025.
“Buyers are coming out with cautious optimism despite increasing economic uncertainty and a slight rise in mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
That said, lower-income prospective buyers remain challenged by high mortgage rates and elevated asking prices.
There has been a notable decoupling between rates and pending sales with the recent rise in rates coinciding with a rise in sales (bit of course, sales are lagged relative to rates, by typically a month or more)…
Contract signings increased last month in three of four US regions.
Pending sales declined in the South, the biggest housing market in the country, after solid increases in the prior two months.
As a reminder, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold, the pending home sales data tend to be a leading indicator of closings that are captured in the monthly previously owned home sales reports.
END
“Door Of Doom” Looms As 30 Year Yield Soars To 19 Year High After Two Huge Treasury Block Sales
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 10:45 AM
Bond yields continued to move sharply higher today, driven in large part by the aggressive repricing in the oil strip as markets (finally) price in a lengthy disruption to Hormuz traffic which has pushed year-end prices higher by about $12 in the past month.
The result has been a spike across virtually all tenors:
- *US 2-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 4.11%, HIGHEST SINCE FEBRUARY 2025
- *TREASURY 5- AND 7-YEAR YIELDS RISE 10 BASIS POINTS ON DAY
- *US 30-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 5.195%, HIGHEST SINCE JULY 2007
… as can be seen below, with the 30Y yield rising above 5.19% and the highest since 2007
According to Bloomberg, the latest spike higher in 10Y yields which is reverberating across the curve…
… is due to a block of 23,000 contracts in 10-year bond June futures traded at a price of 108-25+ on CBOT.
A total of 1.34 million contracts traded so far in this session.
Two minutes later 20,000 was also blocked at 108-24+ with price action around the two trades consistent with sellers.
The combined amount of risk weighting over the two trades equates to $2.8m/DV01.
On May 13, there were identical size block buyers at levels of 110-00 (20,000) and 109-30 (23,000).
The two sales Tuesday point to the unwind/loss liquidation of these long positions established May 13.
As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott notes, the resumption of investor focus on reaccelerating inflation (both due to 1–the obvious lack of progress with Iran and the Energy / Petrochem “supply shock” as emergency inventories are depleting rapidly, plus 2—signals of an “overheating” US economic risk ironically from the “demand” / FCI -side) have repriced the global central bank policy path “hawkish-ly” while FOMC outlook at the very least is “less dovish-ly” with high pricing of “No Fed Cuts” -scenario through YE and real Delta of the dreaded “Fed Hikes” -potential by YE too.
Bloomberg technical analysts note that the 30-year Treasury yield is right at a key technical level, a break of which targets 5.44% unless liability-driven investors step in to arrest the selloff. The 10-year yield may make a new range if the 4.66% level holds.
But more importantly, the 30Y is about to rise above 5.20%, some 20bps higher than what Michael Hartnett warned in his last two Flow Shows is the “door of doom” red line for the bond market.
And stocks are starting to notice.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Flatbed Truck Rates Hit New Highs As These Drivers Fuel Boom
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 12:40 PM
Flatbed trucking conditions have never looked stronger, with spot rates surging to record highs amid a mix of tightening capacity and rising industrial freight demand.
“Flatbed trucking rates have hit a new all-time high as industrial demand and a crackdown on bad actors continue to shape trucking economics,” said FreightWaves founder Craig Fuller.
Fuller added, “It is a great time to be a compliant trucker in America.”
There are two drivers behind why U.S. flatbed spot trucking rates (via SONAR Flatbed Truckload Index) have surged to $4.21 per mile, well above the index’s $2.87 average and to record highs:
- Data center and AI infrastructure boom, which is driving higher volumes of steel, transformers, generators, construction materials, and other open-deck freight;
- And the crackdown on foreign truck drivers, which is shrinking the available labor pool and tightening capacity further, is creating a more favorable pricing backdrop for American owner-operators.
Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that freight brokers now face state-law negligent hiring claims when they hire unsafe trucking firms that later cause crashes. This came after a series of deadly crashes nationwide, with some of these drivers being illegal aliens who were unable to read English.
There are reports that freight brokers are no longer hiring foreign truck drivers.
The combination of surging industrial demand and the reduction in foreign drivers is finally driving higher rates after mom-and-pop American truckers endured years of overcapacity that pushed rates to nearly unaffordable levels.
END
Five Dead After San Diego Mosque Shooting
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 05:05 PM
Updated: San Diego police responded Monday to reports of an active shooter at the Islamic Center of San Diego in the Clairemont area, where authorities say the threat was quickly neutralized but at least three people were killed five adults are reported dead, including the two suspected gunmen – who appear to have died from self-inflicted gunshot wounds.
Officers were called to the 7000 block of Eckstrom Avenue around 11:40 a.m. after reports of multiple shots fired at the center, which houses the county’s largest mosque and the Bright Horizon Academy school. A heavy law enforcement presence, including SWAT teams, converged on the scene within minutes as children and others were evacuated from the building. Aerial footage showed groups of young students walking hand-in-hand away from the site, surrounded by scores of police vehicles.
By early afternoon, police declared the threat “neutralized” and the scene contained. High-level law enforcement sources told local outlets that two suspects were found dead nearby from apparent self-inflicted gunshot wounds. The Council on American-Islamic Relations confirmed at least one fatality among the mosque community, bringing the reported death toll to three. Details on additional injuries remained limited as the investigation unfolded.
The Islamic Center, a prominent hub for prayer, education and community events in a mixed residential and commercial neighborhood, was not in the midst of formal prayers at the time of the shooting but was active with students and staff. CAIR officials condemned the violence, noting the fear it spread through the Muslim community and families with children at the attached school. “No one should ever fear for their safety while attending prayers or studying,” the group said in a statement.
San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria said he was monitoring the situation closely and receiving updates from law enforcement. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office confirmed the governor had been briefed, with the state Office of Emergency Services coordinating support. A reunification site was set up for families, and neighbors in the immediate area were initially told to shelter in place.
As of late Monday afternoon, police had not released the identities of the victims or suspects, nor any information on a possible motive. Homicide investigators remained on scene, and a media staging area was established nearby. The white-domed mosque sits amid homes, apartments and nearby Middle Eastern businesses, in a part of Clairemont Mesa that saw an otherwise ordinary Monday morning turn into a scene of chaos and loss.
This remains a developing story. Authorities urged the public to rely on official updates from the San Diego Police Department as more information becomes available.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 19, 2026 Issue 7745 | Independent View of the News |
| Trump’s more than 3,700 trades astonish Wall Street insiders – BBG “This is an insane amount of trades,” said Matthew Tuttle, chief executive officer of Tuttle Capital Management, in an interview, adding that it looks more like something done by “a hedge fund with massive algo trades” that buys and shorts securities than a personal account… A spokesperson for the Trump Organization earlier said that the president’s holdings are independently managed by third-party financial institutions who have control over all investment decisions, with trades executed through automated processes… “I’m baffled,” said Eric Diton, president and managing director at The Wealth Alliance. “In the 40-plus years of my time on Wall Street, this is an unusual amount of trading by any standards.”… https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-s-more-than-3700-trades-astonish-wall-street-insiders/ar-AA23dZYa Trump touted Palantir on Truth Social after buying the company’s stock, records show – CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/05/15/trump-palantir-stock-truth-social.html Some enterprising reporter is probably correlating the dates of Trump’s trades with actions he took and his TACOs. It will be interesting to see the trades Trump made in Q2 given all the threats, actions, pronouncements, TACOs. double reversals, etc., that DJT did. Isn’t this unseemly and odious? Oil and gasoline rallied smartly on Iran Under No Circumstances Trades War End for Nuclear: Tanim – BBG 10:20 ET; DJT reiterated his threat to annihilate Iran; and US Rejects Latest Iranian Peace Proposal – Axios 11:06 ET Iran’s Tasnim news agency reports the United States has agreed to temporarily waive Iran’s oil sanctions during negotiations as part of the new peace proposal. USMs hit a daily low of 110 5/32 at 21:40 ET. Then someone marched them higher after the Nikkei close. USMs hit a high of 111 in 130 second at 8:45 ET. It looked like somebody was trying to mark bonds higher for the 8 ET cash bond market opening. The 2-year note hit 4.103%; it retreated to 4.073% by the 11:30 ET European Close. The 30-year hit 5.16%. US 10s hit 4.605%, a 15-month high. China reported ugly economic data on Monday. April retail sales increased 0.2% y/y; 2.0% was expected. April industrial production increased 4.1%; 6.0% was expected. Fixed Assets Ex-Rural declined 1.6%, +1.7% was expected. Property investment declined 13.7% YTD y/y, – 11.5% was expected. Senior Iranian Source: US has shown flexibility in ongoing discussions including over limits to Iran’s nuclear work – Reuters. ESMs opened at 7408.50 on Sunday night (-23.75). They quickly rallied to a modest gain, and just as quickly rolled over into a decline that took ESMs to a daily low of 7375.00 at 21:37 ET. After an 18-handle rebound, ESMs settled into a trading range until they broke higher just before the 3 ET European opening. After a plodding rally to 7417.25 at 4:58 ET, ESMs declined retreated to 7386.50 at 7:0T ET. Traders then aggressively bought ESMs, taking them to 7453.00 at 8:45 ET. Traders bought for the Monday rally and in conjunction with the apparent manipulation of USMs. A professional dump then appeared; ESMs fell to 7415.25 at 9:45 ET. Condition traders bought the dip in anticipation of a Monday rally and reports that the US had softened his stance on Iran. ESMs hit a daily high of 7454.25 at 9:58 ET. Reports appeared that said the US had rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal; a steady decline took ESMs to 7381.75 at 12:29 ET. A noon balloon took ESMs to 7414.75 at 13:11 ET. After a slow rollover, ESMs broke down after 14:00 ET in conjunction with USMs. ESMs fell to 7373.50 (-48.75) at 14:58 ET. At 15:00 ET, USMs & ESMs soared on DJT intervention. Trump on Truth Social 15:01 ET: I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond. This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN! Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached… https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116597121700043134 @NiohBerg: So, to clarify: Only now are there serious negotiations according to Trump, and the past month and 10 days have been a waste of time. Am I getting this right? Lather, Rinse, Repeat! Trump TACOed again, this time on Monday, which preempted the usual TACO Tuesday! How stupid and revolting is all this?! Last week, Trump asserted that he halted a planned attack on Iran on Pakistan’s request. Yesterday, DJT averred that he halted action against Iran on a passel of Middle East leaders. The IRGC’s Rope-a-Dopey Trump strategy keeps bearing fruit! The famous Uno ‘Reverse Card” should be renamed the “Trump Card.” Make it happen, Uno! @bonchieredstate: No matter how many times you say they are desperate for a deal, they clearly have no intention of making a deal. The stalling will continue because it benefits them… Pakistan is complicit. Axios top insider @BarakRavid Trump has extended deadlines and postponed planned attacks on Iran at least half a dozen times since the war began. ESMs hit 7420.50 (-11.75) at 15:03 ET; USMs hit 110 26/32 (+6/32). ESMs then fell to 7386.50 at 15:25 ET; USMs fell to 110 14/32 (-6/32). ESMs then jumped to 7428.00 at 15:59 ET on this: China Will Open Its Market to AI Chips From US, Nvidia’s CEO Says – BBG 15:25 ET. (Nvidia reports results tomorrow) BBG’s @JavierBlas: The U.S. injected ~9.9 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market last week. That’s a record high flow of >1.4 million barrels a day. It’s the second consecutive SPR record high flow rate. Positive aspects of previous session USMs rallied smartly in the thin overnight markets. The DJTA was up most of the day. Negative aspects of previous session Bonds and note yields hit year+ highs before an apparent overnight manipulation. USMs peaked at 8:45. Fangs and AI-related issued got hammered. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Did someone manipulate USMs to halt momentum selling? If so, who did the deed? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7396.75 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7434.06 (9:55 ET); 7353.17 (14:49 ET) @drantbradley: Clemson is $1.5B in debt. Syracuse is closing or pausing 93 programs, UNC-Chapel Hill plans to cut spending by $89M over 3 years. Duke recently let 600 employees go in a $350M budget cut. Indiana public colleges announced a plan to eliminate or merge 580 programs statewide. @biancoresearch: Fertility peaked in 2007. 2026 is 18 years later, when this “baby bust” starts heading to college. Only the beginning, and ALL schools should prepare. https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2055408053952860331 Meta employees told to work remotely Wednesday as company prepares to slash 10% of workforce: report https://trib.al/NQnRduN BBG: The Trump administration is poised to roll out a plan for trading digital versions of securities that could reshape the landscape of the American stock market as it continues to loosen the rules for free-wheeling crypto markets… The SEC is leaning toward a decision to allow the trading of tokens that do not have the backing or consent of the public company who shares they track which could be tradable and decentralized crypto platforms… “If third parties can tokenize Apple or Amazon without the issuer at the table, there’s no theoretical limit on how many wrappers of the same company exist at one time,” said Bret Redfearn, president of tokenization firm Securitize and former director of SEC’s Trading and Markets Division. “This could create a whole new level of market fragmentation and could leave investors less certain what their shares are actually worth at any moment.”… (The grift and speculation incitement just keep coming!) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-18/sec-is-said-to-ready-plan-for-trading-crypto-versions-of-stocks DJT last night: We delayed the attack by two or three days to see if there was a chance for an agreement. WSJ: The American Rebellion Against AI Is Gaining Steam – Booed commencement speakers, blocked data centers, plummeting poll numbers: Fast-growing industry has a faster-growing crisis Today – The action will depend on Trump and Iran’s statements and bond market action. Given how mercurial and erratic Trump’s statements and actions have been, why play this stupid game? The US stock market increasing a confidence game in which shills and Team Trump manipulate the market and individual stocks while ‘those in the know’ profit on nonpublic information. Despite the TACO, ESMs are -10.25; NQMs are -75.50; WTI oil is -$1.06; gasoline is -5.60c at 21:30 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6934; 100-day MA: 6918; 150-day MA: 6870; 200-day MA: 6785 DJIA 50-day MA: 48,033;100-day MA: 48,575; 150-day MA: 48,14; 200-day MA: 47,486 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (7403.02 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6658.09 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7351.60 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7418.64 triggers a buy signal Trump on Monday: In Maryland, they sent out 500,000 Illegal Mail In Ballots, and they got caught! So now, they’re going to send out 500,000 more Mail In Ballots, but nobody knows what’s happening with the first 500,000 they sent. In addition, many of these Ballots went to Democrats, so any Republican running in Maryland doesn’t have a chance! This was done by the Corrupt Governor of the State, Wes Moore. He allowed this to happen in order to make sure that Democrats win. It never made sense to me that Maryland was considered an automatic Democrat State, but now I see why. I’m sure this has gone on for years. I’m going to ask the Attorney General of the United States, and the DOJ, to bring an immediate investigation into this situation… Nick Kristof’s incendiary Israel abuse claims spark civil war at New York Times: ‘I’m sick of being embarrassed’ – Staffers at the newspaper are questioning whether some of the most incendiary claims, including an allegation that Israel trains dogs to rape Palestinian detainees, would have ever cleared the paper’s newsroom standards, according to Puck News. The internal backlash has grown so intense that one Times journalist vented to Puck: “I am sick of being embarrassed by the Opinion section.”… https://nypost.com/2026/05/18/media/nick-kristofs-israel-abuse-claims-spark-civil-war-at-new-york-times/ Joel Kleinbaum @PostWokeNAZ: Want to know who the senior editor at @nytimes was who hid the Civil Commission’s report on sexual violence and who pushed the atrocious and undocumented dog r@pe story? Meet Kathleen Kingsbury, who leads the “opinion report” for the New York Times. Melissa Brodsky, prolific author of the outstanding Substack, “The Lioness Writes,” did the sleuthing. Full link in the comments. Quote: “When she [Kingsbury] assumed control of the opinion section in 2020, three of the most prominent pro-Israel voices on the staff were gone within months. Editorial page editor James Bennet was forced out. Opinion writer Bari Weiss resigned, writing in her letter that colleagues had called her a Nazi and a racist, and that the publisher will cave to the mob, the editor will get fired or reassigned, and you will be hung out to dry. Opinion staffer Adam Rubenstein was gone too. “ Fox’s @BillMelugin_: San Diego police say two teenage suspects, ages 17 and 19, carried out a shooting at a mosque in San Diego, killing three adults in the process, including a mosque security guard. Both shooters are now dead and are believed to have shot and killed themselves. @NewsPolitics: Keep a close eye on how the MSM covers this shooting at the San Diego Muslim center compared to how they covered the 4 Christian schools shootings that killed Christian children. @EmperorSnyder: Wisconsin is 65,498 square miles in area. But essentially 90% of Wisconsin’s homicides are occurring in less than 20 square miles… Madison politicians – (besides the ones blaming “guns”) – won’t event come within a mile of the discussion. It’s fiction-level insanity. https://x.com/EmperorSnyder/status/2056189363340415035 @romanhelmetguy: Democrat pitch to billionaires: “We are going to kill you and take your stuff.” Republican pitch to billionaires: “Just please stop hiring foreign labor over Americans.” Median billionaire: “I’m voting Democrat.” @Mark_J_Perry: Here’s a stark gender disparity no college commencement speaker will highlight this year. (64.6% of associate degrees went to women; 59.8% of Bachelor degrees went to women!) Thought Experiment: What if the disparity were reversed? I predict it would be declared to be an alarming national crisis, with stark and hysterical calls for corrective action. https://x.com/Mark_J_Perry/status/2056510583520800787 “A civilization is not destroyed by wicked men; it is destroyed by weak men who cannot defend what is good.” — G. K. Chesterton | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Hundreds Of Subpoenas Are Targeting The Russian Collusion Hoax
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 09:20 PM
According to Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, the Justice Department is hunting the architects of the Russia hoax, and they’re leaving no stone unturned.
Blanche sat down with Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures to discuss what he says is a sweeping criminal investigation into the origins of one of the most destructive political operations in history.
The Southern District of Florida has an open criminal probe. Hundreds of subpoenas. Hundreds of witnesses. Blanche insists the DOJ is working hard and working efficiently. Bartiromo, who has been covering this story for nearly 10 years, wanted answers on why the process has taken so long.
“What have you done about it?” she asked point-blank.
“Well, look, that’s exactly what we’re investigating right now. And by the way, what is not in dispute is that the whole Russia hoax, there was absolutely nothing to it,” Blanche told Bartiromo.
“And so the question that the American people have to ask is, well, then why did they do it? Why did Comey say what he said? Why did the outgoing Obama administration do what they did?”
Blanche continued.
“And that’s what we’re studying right now, because it did great damage to this country. It did great damage to President Trump’s first term. And we want to understand why that happened, why there are continued to be an effort by operatives in the government to go after President Trump while he was in office, and then, of course, over the past several years as well.”
But Bartiromo wasn’t accepting his statements at face value.
“I’d like to know why it’s taking so long,” Bartiromo pressed.
“Has the statute of limitations run up? Do you have no more wiggle room in terms of zeroing in on things like the Mueller report, the Nunes report, and all the evidence that was clear — that they knew there was no Russia collusion?”
Blanche pushed back on the statute-of-limitations concern, arguing that the conspiracy arguably continued well past its origins (through the Mar-a-Lago raid in 2023), which could extend the legal exposure considerably. He framed the entire thing as potentially one continuous criminal conspiracy, stretching from 2015 through 2023 as part of a singular effort to destroy President Trump. “Whether that’s one conspiracy that continued from 2015, 2016, all the way up to 2023 is what we’re looking at right now,” Blanche said. “We’re finding out some incredibly troubling things. And at some point at the right time, that will be made public.”
“When is the time right?” Bartiromo asked. “When should we expect these charges of conspiracy?”
“Well, I mean, look, as has been publicly reported, the Southern District of Florida has an open criminal investigation,” Blanche explained. “That involves hundreds of subpoenas. It involves hundreds of witnesses. And so, as far as timing and when we can expect it, we are working hard, and we are working efficiently, but we are going to do it right. We are not going to rush something, rush something that shouldn’t, that isn’t ready. We’re not going to reach a conclusion before our investigation is over. But I assure you and I assure the American people that we are completely focused on it.”
With hundreds of subpoenas and hundreds of witnesses, this is clearly no small investigation. And considering the media and Democrats will scrutinize every move, the DOJ knows it can’t afford to cut corners. In a case this explosive, being thorough matters a lot more than moving fast.
end
MARYLAND
Trump Demands DOJ Probe Of Maryland’s 500,000 “Illegal” Mail-In Ballots
Monday, May 18, 2026 – 08:55 PM
Submitted by Maryland Freedom Caucus,
President Donald Trump is demanding immediate action from the Department of Justice over Maryland’s exploding mail-in ballot scandal, and he’s not mincing words.
In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump slammed the fiasco:
“In Maryland, they sent out 500,000 Illegal Mail In Ballots, and they got caught! So now, they’re going to send out 500,000 more Mail In Ballots, but nobody knows what’s happening with the first 500,000 they sent. … I’m going to ask the Attorney General of the United States, and the DOJ, to bring an immediate investigation into this situation.”
The Maryland State Board of Elections admitted late last week that a third-party vendor printed and mailed roughly 400,000 ballots for the June 23 gubernatorial primary, with an undetermined number of voters receiving the wrong party’s candidates. Because officials cannot tell exactly who received the flawed ballots, they are re-mailing replacements to every voter who requested one before May 14. However, the original ballots remain in circulation.
The Maryland Freedom Caucus was first out of the gate. On May 16, we issued a press release exposing the crisis, demanding that Jared DeMarinis release Maryland’s voter rolls for a federal audit, and warning that “400,000 double ballots in circulation” threaten the fundamental principle of one vote, one person.
This is not an isolated glitch. Last fall, the Maryland Freedom Caucus and our partners at Secure the Vote MD blew the lid off the Ian Roberts case — an illegal alien from Guyana who was registered to vote in Maryland for years, requested absentee ballots, and remained on the active rolls even after his arrest. That single case proved what we’ve warned for years: Maryland’s voter rolls are bloated with non-citizens, deceased voters, and people who no longer live here.
Worse, when the DOJ requested Maryland’s full voter registration data last year, the State Board of Elections stonewalled. Administrator DeMarinis specifically asked whether the list would be used for immigration enforcement before providing anything meaningful – a clear admission that transparency threatens their continued subterfuge.
President Trump’s call for a DOJ investigation is the national spotlight this scandal desperately needs. Permanent, no-excuse mail-in voting was sold as “convenient and secure.” In reality, it has become a black box that erodes public trust and invites chaos, exactly as the Maryland Freedom Caucus has warned.
But calls for investigation without an immediate remedy will not restore Marylanders’ confidence in their elections. Governor Wes Moore must immediately issue an executive order to restore strict chain-of-custody controls: end the use of unmonitored drop boxes, suspend the use of USPS for local delivery, require that all marked ballots be returned directly to a local Board of Elections office, and implement real-time logging so every ballot can be tracked from voter to canvass.
GREG HUNTER….
harveyorganblog.com 
