EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,506.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/19/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 05/21/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 21
118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 4
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 709
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 715
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 118
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 104
905 C ADM 40
TOTAL: 858 858
MONTH TO DATE: 5,554
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2026: 858 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 85,800 OZ or 2.644 TONNES
total notices so far: 5554 contracts FOR 555,400 OZ OR 17.275 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES:16 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR .080 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5644 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 28.220 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY OUR SMALL 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP TO LONDONO FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.560 MILLION OZ/.//
SUMMARY OF OUR MAY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 50.405 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.560 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX.
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 278 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 27800 OZ/ (0.8646 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 861 CONTRACTS OR 86,100 OZ (2.6750 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 11.676 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 30.932 TONNES OF GOLD.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 861 CONTRACTS/86100 OZ// 2.6750 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3 OCCASIONS: 11.676 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 30.932 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 71.937 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE 1201 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 100,751.
EFP ISSUANCE 246 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 246 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1199 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 246 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA STRONG LOSS OF 955 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $2.39
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 4.775 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $2.39
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS MAY 20 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.35 PTS OR 0.18%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 146.73 PTS OR 0.37%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 8-8/59 PTS OR 1.34%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .56%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8047
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8059 Oil DOWN TO 102.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 109.23 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.8047) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8059 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY 35 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 379,325 CONTRACTS (OI) , HAVING ADVANCED FROM OUR NEW LOW OI SET LATE LAST MONTH AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 354,581 SET APRIL6/2026. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 354,581 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,700.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING TUESDAY’S TRADING. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MAY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $46.50).
WE THUS HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 3387 CONTRACTS (OR 10.53 TONNES) DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A STRONG CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, EQUATING TO 3422 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A ZERO CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD.YESTERDAY, BY FAR HAD THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: THREE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 3754 CONTRACTS OR 375,400OZ OR 11.676 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: THREE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 3754 CONTRACTS, 375,400 OZ OR 11.676 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
DETAILS ON OUR NEW MAY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3387 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE ($46.50). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MAY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS FINALLY A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1455 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IT IS NOW IN FULL FORCE WITH TODAY’S RAID AND CAPITULATION ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 3RD ISSUANCE FOR 11.676 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 13.676 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12 AND MAY 18.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 86100 OZ (2.6780 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 375,400 OZ OR 11.676 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 30.932 TONNESS
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING MAY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $46.50)
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS STILL REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
TUESDAY NIGHT//WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $46.50
WE HAD A 5466 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 3387 CONTRACTS OR 338,700 OZ OR 10;534 TONNES
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 20 2026
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 2 i) LOOMIS 32,151.000 oz 1000 kilobars) ii) Out of Manfra: 32.151.000 oz 1 KILOBAR total: 32,183.151 oz (1001 kilobars) 1.001 TONNE |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 0 ENTRY xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 858 CONTRACTS OR 85,800 OZ 2.644 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 637 Contracts 63,700 OZ 1.981 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 5554 notices 555,400 oz 17.275 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
0 ENTRY
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals:
ENTRIES; 2
i) LOOMIS 32,151.000 oz
1000 kilobars)
ii) Out of Manfra: 32.151.000 oz 1 KILOBAR
total: 32,183.151 oz (1001 kilobars)
1.001 TONNE
adjustments: 2//CUSTOMER TO DEALER;
a) Brinks customer to dealer: 482.265 oz
b) customer to dealer; Delaware 1500.281 oz
total adjusted out of eligible into dealer acct: 1982.546 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI STANDS AT 1495 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 829 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 32 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A HUGE 861 CONTRACTS OR 86,100 OZ (2.6780 TONNES)
UNDERWENT A HUGE QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
JUNE IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 6646 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 185,951. JUNE BECOMES THE NEW FRONT MONTH.
JULY LOST 40 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 1687.
We had 858 contracts filed for today representing 85,800oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 858 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 118 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5,554) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1495 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 858 x 100 oz per contract) equals 619,100 OZ OR (19.256 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our THREE exchange for risk issuance for 375,400 oz or 11.676 tonnes//new standing for gold/May again advances to 30.932 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5,554) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY( 1495 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 858 x 100 oz per contract) equals 619,100 OZ OR (19.256 Tonnes of gold) plus we must add our THREE exchange for risk issuances of 375,400 oz or 11.676 tonnes/new standing advances to 30.932 tonness
new total of gold standing in MAY ADVANCES TO 30.932 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY 30.932 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW STRONG FOR THIS NORMALLY NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
confirmed volume TUESDAY confirmed 170,688// fair// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
the number provided do not match from yesterday!!!
total pledged gold: 1,911,131.257 oz 59.44 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,911,131.257 tonnes oz 59.44 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 28,681,513.821oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,707,330.162 OZ 488.563 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,974,183.659 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,796.199 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
429.11 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
MAY 20
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of Loomis: 640,,863.900 oz ii Out of Delaware: 993.3000 oz total withdrawal: 641,857.300 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 entries i) Into Stonex; 49,163.830 oz total deposit 49,163.830 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 2 ENTRIES i) Into Loomis: 600,238.950 oz ii) Into Manfra: 18,974.367 total deposit 619,213.317 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 16 CONTRACT(S) (0.080 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 868 Contracts (4.340 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5,644 contracts 28.220 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
1 entries
1 entries
i) Into Stonex; 49,163.830 oz
total deposit 49,163.830 oz
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 ENTRIES
i) Into Loomis: 600,238.950 oz
ii) Into Manfra: 18,974.367
total deposit 619,213.317 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) Out of Loomis: 640,,863.900 oz
ii Out of Delaware: 993.3000 oz
total withdrawal: 641,857.300 oz
adjustments 1 customer to dealer
a) Delaware 100,961.685 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.669 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 315.857 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2026 OI: 884 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 126 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 123 CONTRACTS SERVED UPON ON TUESDAY SO WE LOST 3 CONTRACT OR 0.015 MILLION OZ UNDERWENT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND. IT SHOWS THAT THERE IS NO REAL PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE TO BE DELIVERED UPON.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 35 CONTRACTS UP TO 2900 OI CONTRACTS
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 1100 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 72,470 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 16 or 0.080 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume TUESDAY; 53,122 fair
AND NOW MAY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5644 X5,000 oz = 28.220 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (884) AND the number of notices served upon today (16 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2026 contract month: (5,644 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY (884) minus number of notices served upon today (16)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY..contract month equating to 32.560 MILLION OZ.+
NEW STANDING REDUCES T0: 32.560 MILLION OZ WHICH IS STILL PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 81.669 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 140.287/315.857 million: 44.39
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
MAY 20 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.999 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
MAY 19 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1038.85 TONNES
MAY 18 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 15 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $118.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 14 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 13 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 12 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.280 TONNES
MAY 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.515 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.995 TONNES
MAY 8 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 0.283 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.480TONNES
MAY 7 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.853 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1033.197TONNES
MAY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $124.70 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.718 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.05TONNES
MAY 5 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $33.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 4 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $106.65 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
MAY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1035.768 TONNES
APRIL 30/2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.142 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1039.195 TONNES
APRIL 29/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $45.70 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 28/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $85.85 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1044.337 TONNES
APRIL 27/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP $13.95 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.62 TONNES
APRIL 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.35 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.000 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.91 TONNES
APRIL 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP 26.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 11.90TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $71.30 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.91 TONNES
APRIL 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.783 TONNES
APRIL 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT 2.289 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.478 TONNES
APRIL 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $83.55 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.714 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.192 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.60 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.514 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.906 TONNES
APRIL 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY/SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.42 TONNES
APRIL 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.50 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.429 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.990 TONNES
APRIL 8/2026/WITH GOLD UP $88.95 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 7/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.429 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.419 TONNES
APRIL 6/2026/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
APRIL 2/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $132.75 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 3.714 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.99 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1036.851 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
MAY 20 WITH SILVER UP $1.27: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
MAY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.39: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.086 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
MAY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $7.06: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.9000 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3,79: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.448 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.524 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER UP $3,62: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.086 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.087 MILLION OZ
MAY 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.48: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OZ INTO OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.990 MILLION OZ
MAY 11 WITH SILVER UP $5.10: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.995 MILLION OZ OF SILVER PUT OF THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.814 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER UP $1.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.689 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.809 MILLION OZ
MAY 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.26: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER UP $3.75: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.724 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.130 MILLION OZ
MAY 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.21: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.05: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.734 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.604 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP $2.38: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.905 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.338 MILLION OZ
APRIL 30 WITH SILVER UP $2.03: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.991 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.243MILLION OZ
APRIL 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.95: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.39: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.234MILLION OZ
APRIL 24 WITH SILVER UP 0.92: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.54 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487,23MILLION OZ
APRIL 23WITH SILVER DOWN $2.35: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.489 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488,773MILLION OZ
APRIL 22 WITH SILVER UP 1.43: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262MILLION OZ
aPRIL 21 WITH SILVER DOWN 3.71: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.352 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.262 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17 WITH SILVER UP $3.09: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.453 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.900 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.132 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.477 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15 WITH SILVER UP $0.01: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.588 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.579 MILLION OZ
APRIL 14 WITH SILVER UP $3.99: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.991 MILLION OZ
APRIL 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.589 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.624 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 0.16: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.724 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.213 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.173 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.937 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8 WITH SILVER UP $3.50: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.89: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.41: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.224 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.764 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.57: TINY CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.091 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.988 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 488.338 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Bond yields and gold
Higher bond yields are undermining gold and silver. We examine why, and what are the consequences.
| Alasdair MacleodMay 20∙Paid |
Brien Lundin (@Brien_Lundin) posted this chart on X, which explains much about why gold, and also silver, have weakened recently. In recent months, the negative correlation with US Treasury yields has been very close.
This prompts the question as to why this should be so. Obviously, it reflects changes in the spread between gold’s lease rate and rising bond yields. This is a legacy of the last four decades, when the propaganda struggle to establish the dollar as money replacing gold gradually succeeded.
At least, this was the belief that gradually held sway. If the gold standard was no more than a barbarous relic and gold was little more than a pet rock, of course the dollar was king. Never mind that the dollar was a fiat currency, an imaginary money created by the US government’s central bank.
So long as participants in financial markets believe this tosh, then clearly a rise in dollar interest rates will act to make non-yielding gold less valuable. In other words, we can see why it is that when rates rise, gold weakens. But it is an effect always constrained to a period of perceived currency stability in domestic markets. Not only do US markets default to this error, but markets in thrall to the dollar, such as London and elsewhere fall for it as well.
A large part of it stems from the financialisation of economies stemming from London’s Big-Bang in the mid-80s, when gold was used as the basis of a carry trade investing in US T-bills. Gold was sold for T-bills, fixing interest rate differentials as drivers of price in collective minds.
The relationship between gold and the dollar of the 1970s and instances of heightened inflation and bond yields were quickly forgotten. At the beginning of that decade, the Fed’s funds rate was 3.7% and gold $35. In 1981, the fund’s rate was 19% and gold hit $850. In other words, there was a positive correlation between the two.
Why the difference?
Clearly, a negative correlation between dollar rates and the dollar gold price can exist only when in general terms inflation is not seen to be a significant concern. It can be expected to rise and fall under the general control of the monetary authorities: at least in the sense that it won’t run away. This tells us that while the inflation outlook is changing for the worse, financial markets in the West take the collective view that it will be just a temporary blip.
Lundin’s chart tracks the relationship only since late-March and shows a closely negative relationship between the 10-year Treasury note and the gold price. The same chart from the beginning of January tells a different story.
There were times when the negative correlation occurred, but gold still managed a substantial rise between April 2025 and late-February when the net change in the bond yield was about 10 basis points. It appears that the negative correlation has been good only in parts.
Context is everything. Until the US decided to wage war on Iran, investors expected interest rates to decline in 2026, hopes reflected in bond yields declining over most of 2025. But inflation remained above the Fed’s target, and central banks were buying gold, not impressed by relative yield arguments.
We now face a different environment, for which markets have yet to adjust. There is little doubt that instead of interest rate cuts in 2026, we should now expect them to rise. This is beginning to be reflected in higher bond yields, but the full implications are not yet reflected in gold. Higher inflation is in fact a loss of currency purchasing power. The calculation becomes one of assessing that loss potential against the bond yield which compensates for that risk. At 4.6% on the 10-year maturity, is the compensation for loss of the dollar’s purchasing power sufficient?
We can all have our opinions, but the indications are growing that it is not sufficient and that we will see higher bond yields. If the assumption is that the higher yields will not destabilise government finances, then doubtless gold will be sold or marked down accordingly. But if there is a likelihood of significantly higher inflation, a slump, or government funding facing a debt trap, then the risk will be in the bond, not in gold, which emerges as a safe haven.
It is often the case in a currency decline that foreigners take a different view from domestic users. It is clear from all commentary that domestic users of the dollar see minimal danger to the value of their currency. They are just beginning to suspect that interest declines are now on hold and that increases are a remote but increasing possibility. The same can be said for domestic users of yen, euros, and sterling.
Foreign insiders appear to take the opposite view. While domestic users of G7 currencies are yet to be alarmed and are sellers of gold and silver, they are being bought by foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds, as well as investing institutions and citizens who are selling down their holdings of these currencies. While America sells, China and others buy, until there’s none left.
In March alone, China and India imported 561 tonnes of silver through London, which in turn imported 601 tonnes from the US, while the price fell from over $90 to under $70.
The risk they see should not be ignored. They see the end of the dollar-based fiat currency system. That will happen anyway as the imagination that currencies are money faces reality — as always happens eventually.
The hit to the dollar’s purchasing power from the war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is turbocharging its decline, bringing forward its extinction. That’s what the Asian hegemons see as clear as daylight but is yet to become apparent to the inward-looking American investment community.
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 272 and 271
Ted Oakley//272
MUST VIEW…
5. COMMODITY REPORT/GOLD
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.35 PTS OR 0.18%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 146.73 PTS OR 0.37%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 8-8/59 PTS OR 1.34%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .56%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8047
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8059 Oil DOWN TO 102.79 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 109.23 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.8047) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.8059 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.8047
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.8057
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 146.73 PTS OR 0.53%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 808.59 PTS OR 1.34%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 102.78
BRENT; 109.23
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.93/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1593 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.763 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 159.03… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.062 DOWN 9 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN( 6.8047 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.8059
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.1631// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.920// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.592%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.837%
3j Gold at $4485.85 //Silver at: 75/37 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 6/ 100 roubles/71.26
3m oil (WTI) into the 102 dollar handle for WTI and 109 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.03 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.762% DOWN 3 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.062 DOWN 9 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7902 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9163
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.648 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.168 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.095 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.60 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.0490 DOWN 8 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.725 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.704 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.351 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rise Ahead Of Critical Nvidia Earnings As Oil, Bond Yields Drop
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 07:51 AM
US equity futures are higher led by tech as the selloff in bonds eased and traders awaited earnings from Nvidia after the close. As of 7:30am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% while Nasdaq futs rose 0.7% showing optimism heading into the release and overlooking weakness in tech during APAC trade. In premarket trading, NVDA is up 1.8% in premarket trading, as semis see a strong bid with Mag7 names almost all higher. Cyclicals ex-Energy are rallying led by Industrials with Defensives lagging and Staples down. European stocks have edged higher alongside a pullback in energy prices, which saw Brent briefly slip onto a $108/bbl handle. Today is all about NVDA but Fed Minutes this afternoon may provide color on the dissenters from the previous Fed Day. Bond yields in the US and Europe retreated from multiyear highs as traders pared back aggressive bets on interest-rate hikes this year. US yields are 1-3bp lower across the curve, the 10Y dropping to 4.64% from yesterday’s high of 4.69%, as the USD sees a mild bid. Brent fell 1.8% toward $109 a barrel with the broader energy complex drops as JPM flags 6.6mm bbls of oil crossing the SoH over the last 24 hours; Precious Metals are also bid with Ags seeing weakness. Tomorrow’s macro releases include Flash PMIs and jobless data.
In premarket trading, Nvidia is outperforming fellow Magnificent Seven stocks, rising 1.8%, ahead of its much-anticipated first-quarter results report after the market closes. Fellow chip stocks are also gaining (Tesla +1%, Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.2%, Apple -0.2%, Microsoft -0.4%)
- 8×8 (EGHT) jumps 17% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
- Cava Group Inc. (CAVA) is up 7.1%. The company raised its annual sales outlook after diners flocked to its restaurants in the first quarter, defying the crunch in consumer budgets that has weighed on the industry.
- Keysight Technologies (KEYS) is up 2.3% after the measurement instruments company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a third-quarter forecast that is above the analyst consensus.
- Toll Brothers (TOL) rises 2.3% after the luxury homebuilder reported second-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates and raised its full-year guidance.
In other corporate news, Goldman Sachs is said to have the leading role on the cover of SpaceX’s IPO, with Morgan Stanley also listed as a lead bank. SpaceX expects to proceed with its acquisition of Cursor 30 days after the company begins trading publicly, and if the deal doesn’t go through, SpaceX would pay Cursor a $10 billion breakup fee in cash, BBG reported. Early AI tools are boosting productivity as much as 30%, said JPMorgan, while Standard Chartered’s CEO has sought to reassure staff after a backlash to his remarks on using artificial intelligence to replace “lower-value human capital.” Softbank’s $60 billion bet on OpenAI, and growing unease over Masayoshi Son’s devotion to Sam Altman is today’s The Big Take.
Futures are higher in early trading as investors digest a backdrop of surging rates volatility, heavily crowded semis exposure and euphoric – and outright manic bubble in the case of Korea – positioning, while some of the most aggressive AI momentum trades globally show signs of strain, even as stocks broadly ignore the historic rout taking place in the bond market, sending 30Y yields to 19 year highs.
A potential strike at Samsung and the words of Jensen Huang are two catalysts in the next 24 hours to keep traders on edge.
The impending strike at Samsung could add to concerns around supply being able to meet burgeoning demand for AI memory chips in the face of already surging memory prices, at a time inflation is coming for the overcrowded AI trade.
Nvidia will give a much-anticipated update on the state of the AI economy when it reports after the close. While sales are estimated to have grown 80%, investors will be more focused on what Nvidia has to say about ramping up production and fending off competitors.
Options traders are pricing an implied move of about 5.5% for Nvidia shares in either direction following the results. With the report coming at a time when the roaring rally in chipmakers is coming off the boil, well-received earnings could give the sector fresh momentum and help drive global indexes even higher into superbubble territory.
“The semiconductor rally has stalled, but really is just in a holding pattern until Nvidia reports,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “Nvidia can, for now, keep its beat-and-raise machine going, which will reignite the rally in semiconductors.”
Today we also get the minutes of the April 28–29 FOMC meeting which should show that support for removing the easing bias from the statement extended beyond the three dissenters. The minutes should reinforce the market view that the easing cycle is on an extended hold, according to Bloomberg Economics. Fed’s Paulson said she favored holding interest rates steady and conditioned lower borrowing costs on making sustained progress on inflation.
President Donald Trump threatened to resume strikes on Iran in the coming days as part of the push for a deal to end the war, after he said he had just called off a US attack. Alexandre Drabowicz, chief investment officer at Indosuez Wealth Management, said he wouldn’t be surprised if Trump’s next steps take into account where interest rates are headed, given the current yield levels. “We’re in the thick of the danger zone,” he said.
“Stagflation risk has gone up significantly,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St. James’s Place. “When we’re talking about increased inflation and falling growth, in that environment, most asset classes will struggle, including bonds.”
In politics, the Republican-led US Senate signaled mounting opposition to continuing the Iran war in a procedural vote Tuesday, reflecting deepening political unease over a conflict that is taking a financial toll on Americans. Trump signed an executive order directing regulators to issue guidance on banking services to undocumented migrants, in a move that could tighten access to the financial system.
Retail is in focus before the market opens, with Target and TJX set to report. Visits to Target stores during the first quarter were up 5.1% from the year prior, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, according to data from Placer.ai. The firm also notes traffic in April rose 5.5% from the previous year.
European stocks edge higher alongside a pullback in energy prices, which saw Brent briefly slip onto a $108/bbl handle. Stock market operator Euronext is among the biggest gainers, while credit checking firm Experian fell on its latest earnings. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
- Euronext shares gain 7.1%, most since July 2023, after the stock market operator reported what analysts say are strong 1Q earnings, driven by better revenues and costs, with the equity markets division as the main standout
- CSG shares rise as much as 12%, the most since January, after the defense company reported results analysts called strong, saying the market should be relieved after the recent selloff
- Marks & Spencer shares rise as much as 5.5% after the retailer reported a milder drop in adjusted pretax profit than anticipated during FY26, having grappled with a costly cyberattack during the year
- RS Group shares rise as much as 10%, the most since November 2024, after the distributor of electrical and industrial products announced a £100m share buyback and pointed to improving momentum across its major markets
- Playtech shares gain as much as 5.1% after the gaming software maker said it delivered an “excellent trading performance” over the first four months of the year, according to a statement ahead of its annual general meeting
- Ypsomed shares jump as much as 14%, the most since April 2025, after the Swiss maker of injection systems reported better-than-expected financial results and provided guidance that pleased investors
- Severn Trent shares rise as much as 4.9% after the UK water company reported earnings ahead of expectations in FY26 and upgraded its outlook for FY28; peer United Utilities is up 1.3%%, while smaller rival Pennon is trading 1% higher
- Experian shares drop for the first day in five, falling as much as 6%, as the credit checking company’s full-year guidance proves slightly lower than analysts expected
- Orkla falls as much as 8.9% after the Norwegian consumer goods group reported earnings which fell short of expectations. DNB Carnegie sees a “mixed” report, flagging an adjusted Ebit miss and increased margin pressure
- Rusta falls as much as 8.6%, the most since September, after SEB cut its recommendation on the Swedish retailer to hold from buy, saying the stock’s valuation discount has disappeared after a strong rally
- B&M falls as much as 3.9% as Goodbody cut its rating on the European budget retailer to hold from buy. The broker sees tepid earnings as the UK macroeconomic climate deteriorates and poor weather weighs on sales
Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell for a fourth straight session, heading for their longest losing streak in nearly two months as chip stocks dropped and bonds sold off on inflation concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.3%, with Samsung and TSMC among the the biggest drags. Samsung shares slumped after its labor union said it will go on strike Thursday, a development that pushed the Korean benchmark Kospi lower. Most markets in the region were down, led by Kospi’s 3% decline. Concerns that the US-Iran war may stretch on have lifted global inflation expectations, pushing yields higher. The higher cost of capital may hinder the fast expansion of Asian stocks that have ridden artificial intelligence tailwinds to grow earnings. Stocks also fell in Japan, China, Hong Kong and Australia.
In FX, the greenback has given back some ground after dollar gains pushed EUR/USD to its lowest level since April 7. JPY remains rangebound amid the threat of intervention, with Yen fundamentals still bearish (Supplementary Budget/Energy). Demand at the overnight JGB auction was weak and saw some pressure in JGBs but no real follow-through to the FX space. USD/JPY is unchanged and testing 159.00 to the downside at the time of writing. GBP is a little weaker after soft April inflation data trimmed bets on BoE hikes. GBP/USD moved lower by c. 15pips post-data, now above pre-release levels as it attempts to regain a 1.34 handle. EUR/GBP moved higher by 10pips post-data, a move which swiftly pared amid resistance at 0.8670 and recent energy-related moves. (See 08:40 BST headline for more). EUR is also a touch weaker and seemingly moving lower in tandem with USD strength. EUR/USD -0.1%, the pair delved as low as 1.1583 before attempting to return back to a 1.16 handle, where it has traded throughout the week so far.
US Treasuries yields continue to test levels reminiscent of unnerving times. A sustained selloff in Asia and Europe on Tuesday continued through the US morning until a small relief bid emerged in the afternoon. Still, 30y yield ended the day hovering around 5.17% – the highest level since 2007. 10y yields have pushed past the 4.50% mark that has typically served as a reentry point from oversold territory and are inching closer to 4.75%. Global inflationary concerns, a Middle East crisis and a lack of conviction has led to a perfect storm of stop outs and compounding bearish momentum. The lack of thematic dip buying is likely summed up by sentiment that things look cheap but could look even cheaper. 2s5s10s – something the desk highlighted a few sessions ago – has dramatically cheapened 10bp over the past few days. Wednesday’s 20y auction will be a key gauge on the market’s appetite for long-end duration at these levels. The elevated rate environment is bad news for risk assets in a world where debt-fueled capex is high, and this US administration has used tools to indirectly affect dip buying in duration before
This morning treasuries hold gains amid a bigger curve-steepening rally in gilts after UK inflation gauge slowed more than economists estimated. US yields are 2bp-3bp lower on the day, with 5s30s curve steeper by more than 1bp; 10-year is down 2.7bp near session low 4.64%, with UK 10-year lower by more than 8bp, Germany’s by more than 3bp. UK front-end yields remain around 10bp richer on the day heading into the US session, which includes a 20-year bond auction poised to draw the highest yield since October 2023. July WTI crude oil futures, down around 2.5%, also support Treasuries. UK yields are 7bp to 10bp lower on the day with 2s10s and 5s30s curves steeper by about 1.5bp; following the UK inflation data, swaps-implied chance of a BOE rate hike in June ebbed to less than 20%, compared with about 50% at one point last week
Treasury auctions resume with $16 billion 20-year new issue at 1pm New York time. WI 20-year yield near 5.17% is ~29bp cheaper than last month’s auction; a $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening is ahead Thursday. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of offerings. Twelve borrowers raised almost $15 billion on Tuesday with issuers paying, on average, 4.8bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.9 times covered
Economic data slate empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Barr (9:15am), and minutes of FOMC’s April 28-29 meeting are slated for 2pm release
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
- DAX +0.2%
- CAC 40 +0.3%
- 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.64%
- VIX little changed at 18.03
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1204.72
- euro -0.1% at $1.1591
- WTI crude -1.5% at $102.59/barrel
Top overnight news
- The Trump administration is planning to tell NATO allies this week that it will shrink the pool of military capabilities that the U.S. would have available to assist the alliance’s European nations in a major crisis, three sources familiar with the matter said. BBG
- Two giant Chinese tankers laden with around 4 million barrels of oil exited the strait on Wednesday, the latest signal that Iran is willing to ease its blockade for countries it considers friendly. Iran had announced last week, while Trump was in Beijing for a summit, that it had reached an agreement to ease rules for Chinese ships. RTRS
- India is preparing to send vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to load energy cargoes from Middle East suppliers, the first time since the Iran conflict began. BBG
- Xi Jinping called for “a comprehensive ceasefire” in the Middle East as he opened talks with Vladimir Putin in Beijing. BBG
- US President Trump signed a fintech Executive Order to protect the US financial system from illicit activity, while it was reported that the White House plans to release an Executive Order on cybersecurity and AI safety as soon as this week, which seeks early government access to advanced models.
- Indonesia’s central bank snapped a long-running pause as it delivered its first rate hike in over two years to guard against inflation and steady the rupiah. Bank Indonesia on Wednesday raised its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%, coming off the sidelines after holding steady since it eased policy settings in September last year. The move surprised markets. WSJ
- British inflation cooled by more than expected in April but the slowdown did little to mask a tough outlook for households, with global costs from the Iran war set to hit them harder later this year. Consumer prices rose by an annual 2.8%, down from March’s annual inflation rate of 3.3%, official data showed, helped by smaller increases in household energy and other regulated utility bills than in April 2025, and by measures to lower energy bills introduced by finance minister Rachel Reeves. RTRS
- The EU finalized the text of its long-delayed US trade deal after months of negotiations, clearing a major hurdle to ratifying the pact before President Donald Trump’s threatened deadline to impose higher tariffs. The EU agreed to scrap tariffs on US industrial goods in exchange for a 15% cap on EU export levies. BBG
- Japan’s 20-year bond auction drew strong demand, helping calm a recent selloff in longer-dated JGBs. PM Sanae Takaichi said an extra budget would avoid large bond sales. BBG
- China banned Nvidia’s US export-friendly RTX 5090D V2 gaming chip last Friday. FT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks declined following the weak handover from the US, with sentiment dampened amid headwinds from a higher yield environment and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. ASX 200 retreated with the declines led by underperformance in the mining and materials sectors, while a lack of data and firmer yields contributed to the uninspired mood. Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 60,000 level with notable pressure in machine tool and electrical equipment manufacturers, while recent comments from Japan’s Finance Minister, and current FX levels were seen to stoke intervention risks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat sentiment amid bond and inflation woes, with the declines in Hong Kong led by mining, solar and property stocks, while there was a lack of surprises from the PBoC announcement to maintain the benchmark Loan Prime Rates for the 12th consecutive month.
Top Asian News
- Chinese President Xi met Russian President Putin in Beijing and said that relations have reached their current level due to deepened political mutual trust and strategic cooperation, while Putin said ties between Russia and China support broader international stability. Furthermore, China and Russia plan to deepen continuous strategic coordination, and Putin invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to travel to Russia next year, while Xi told Putin that the world faces the risk of regressing into a “law of the jungle.”
- Japanese PM Takaichi said she is not currently at a stage where she can comment on the possible size of the extra budget. She further said that plans to protect people’s lives and businesses while curbing issuance of deficit-financing bonds as much as possible.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) were initially incrementally lower, but now display a more positive picture. On the trade front, the EU finalised the text of its US trade deal, in which the bloc would remove levies on US industrial goods in exchange for a 15% tariff ceiling on EU exports. Next steps are for the Parliament and EU countries to vote to ratify the text. The AEX (+0.4%) hovers around the U/C mark, with chip majors ASML (+3.2%) and BESI (+2.3%) supporting the index, while the FTSE 100 (-0.1%) sees little support following the cooler-than-expected UK inflation print. European sectors trade mixed. Basic Resources tops the sector pile as it manages to claw back some of Tuesday’s losses. Energy and Technology round out the top three sectors. To the downside, Media, Retail and Food, Beverages & Tobacco underperforms. UK supermarkets (Tesco -1.6%, Sainsburys -1.4%) have came under pressure after reports by the FT stated that the UK Treasury is pushing large supermarkets to introduce voluntary price caps on key groceries in return for lifting some regulations.
Top European News
- UK Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) M/M 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.7%, Low. 0.8%, High. 1.3%).
- UK Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 3.3%, Low. 2.8%, High. 3.4%); Services 3.2% (prev. 4.5%). ONS: “There was a notable fall in annual inflation led by lower electricity and gas prices. This was due to the government’s energy bill support package reducing variable and fixed tariffs, along with lower global wholesale energy prices before the conflict in the Middle East, which fed through to the reduction in the Ofgem cap.”
- UK Core Inflation Rate MoM (Apr) M/M 0.7% (Prev. 0.4%).
- UK Core Inflation Rate YoY (Apr) Y/Y 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 3.1%, Low. 2.5%, High. 3.2%).
FX
- USD continues driving higher amid the continued unconstructive oil/yield environment with oil either side of USD 110/bbl and yields still elevated, albeit lower on the day. US/Iran news overnight was light, and nothing pertinent this morning, but the running commentary remains hostile. The Buck will remain attentive to Gulf developments, alongside expected hawkish FOMC minutes this evening, and NVIDIA earnings after the US close. DXY +0.1%, is now above all significant DMAs, with the 50DMA closest at 99.00.
- JPY remains rangebound amid the threat of intervention, with Yen fundamentals still bearish (Supplementary Budget/Energy). Demand at the overnight JGB auction was weak and saw some pressure in JGBs but no real follow-through to the FX space. USD/JPY is unchanged and testing 159.00 to the downside at the time of writing.
- GBP is a little weaker after soft April inflation data trimmed bets on BoE hikes. GBP/USD moved lower by c. 15pips post-data, now above pre-release levels as it attempts to regain a 1.34 handle. EUR/GBP moved higher by 10pips post-data, a move which swiftly pared amid resistance at 0.8670 and recent energy-related moves. (See 08:40 BST headline for more). EUR is also a touch weaker and seemingly moving lower in tandem with USD strength. EUR/USD -0.1%, the pair delved as low as 1.1583 before attempting to return back to a 1.16 handle, where it has traded throughout the week so far.
Central Banks
- Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said inflation remains too high and interest rate cuts may only happen after inflation is controlled, while he also commented that current policy is appropriate and it is healthy for markets to consider an extended hold or hikes. Paulson stated the US labour market is stable and consumption is slowing, but is resilient, and a rate hike may be considered if growth moves above potential or other inflation risks emerge. Furthermore, he reiterated that he did not see a need to change language at the last policy meeting, as well as noted that risks are ‘super-elevated’ right now to both inflation and the outlook.
- ECB’s Wunsch said the bond selloff is not impacting the ECB’s thinking of Iran and that the ECB will need to react at some point.
- JPMorgan expects the BoE to hike 25bps in July (prev. forecast of hike in June).
Fixed Income
- Global fixed benchmarks are firmer this morning, attempting to rebound from recent losses as energy prices pull back this morning. UK benchmarks outperform thanks to a cooler-than-expected regional inflation report, which has reduced the chance of a hike in June.
- USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks and trades towards the upper end of a 108-19+ to 108-30+ range. Focus remains on the geopolitical environment, with a recent WSJ report suggesting that Iran’s position in talks with the US to end the war hasn’t changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress towards a deal. Earlier today, the IRGC provided some punchy rhetoric after it stated that the war would extend “beyond the region” if Iran is attacked again. Ultimately, an environment which keeps energy-related inflation woes at the front of minds, allowing yields to remain at elevated levels. On that front, the US10yr is just off recent highs, residing at 4.65%; the US-30yr (5.17%) remains towards peaks, after it surged to levels not seen since 2007, in the prior session. Ahead, FOMC Minutes and a 20yr auction.
- Bunds are firmer by around 10 ticks, and hold within a 123.86 to 124.22 range. Earlier, German PPI M/M printed a touch above the expected (1.2% vs exp. 1%); the statistics office notes that it “is primarily due to higher prices for intermediate goods”, particularly in precious metals prices. The report also highlighted the continued surge in energy prices. There was little move in German paper following this report. On the central banking front, ECB’s Wunsch said that the bond sell-off is not impacting the ECB’s thinking of Iran, adding that the Bank will need to act at some point. Elsewhere, French President Macron nominated Emmanuel Moulin to head the Bank of France. He said at the Senate today that the ECB must be ready to act to combat inflation, and stressed the importance of an independent central bank. He now appears at the National Assembly, where the outcome of the votes for his nomination will be announced this afternoon.
- Gilts outperform vs peers, and are currently higher by around 45 ticks; UK paper holds at the upper end of an 86.07 to 86.54 range. From a yield perspective, unsurprisingly the UK curve is bull steepening; the 10yr is now eyeing the 5% mark to the downside, but will likely need some positive geopolitical updates for a decisive breach below the key level. Price action today follows a cooler than expected inflation report, where headline CPI slowed to 2.8% in April, from 3.3% in March and below consensus of 3.0%. This report spurred a dovish repricing at the BoE, with markets now assigning an 8% chance of a hike in June (vs 35% pre-release); July now 50% (vs 84% pre-release).
- Germany sells EUR 3.845 vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.90% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.5x (prev. 1.24x), average yield 3.16% (prev. 2.92%), retention 23.1% (prev. 23.66%).
- Japan sells JPY 525.8bln 20-year JGBs; b/c 4.01x (prev. 4.82), average yield 3.711% (prev. 3.327%).
Commodities
- WTI and Brent July futures have been edging lower throughout the European morning thus far, with newsflow relatively mixed. Out of Iran, one official noted that the region is open to negotiations whilst an IRGC member stated that the war will extend beyond the region, if Iran is hit again. Most recently, Saudi press citing a diplomatic source suggested that Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks.
- Nonetheless, crude futures remain heavy, with WTI in a USD 102.50-104.45/bbl range while its Brent counterpart resides in a USD 109.52-111.49/bbl range at the time of writing, with some weakness seen in the European morning despite a lack of clear catalysts, although the moves did follow comments from the Iranian Deputy to the President. Dutch TTF is flat in choppy trade above the EUR 51.50/MWh mark.
- Spot gold is choppy and resides in a relatively narrow USD 4,453-4,508/oz at the time of writing, vs yesterday’s USD 4,464-4,589.58/oz parameter, with the yellow metal subdued by the firmer dollar. Spot silver, conversely, rebounds following yesterday’s 5% losses.
- Base metals are mixed with newsflow on the quieter side this morning as markets await further US-Iran updates, with its implications watched from inflationary/growth standpoints. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13,357.00-13,506.00/t range at the time of writing.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.1mln (exp. -3.4mln), Distillates -1.0mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -5.8mln (exp. -2.1mln), Cushing -1.4mln.
- Russia’s Kremlin said there is an agreement with China regarding something important on energy. Russia’s Kremlin spokesperson Peskov later said the details on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline still needs to be agreed.
- UK Treasury said Chancellor Reeves is expected to introduce broad reforms that would allow Parliament to authorise critical energy infrastructure projects.
Trade/Tariffs
- The EU has finalised the text of its US trade deal, as the bloc races to meet US President Trump’s July 4th deadline. The deal would see the EU remove levies on US industrial goods in exchange for a 15% tariff ceiling on EU exports. EU’s von der Leyen later said she welcomes agreement reached by the European Parliament and Council on reducing tariffs for US industrial exports to the EU, while she calls on the co-legislators to move swiftly and finalise the process on this.
- EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic has reportedly been in contact with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer.
- China’s MOFCOM confirmed China will purchase 200 Boeing (BA) jets and said the US is expected to provide engines and parts support for the China Boeing deal. MOFCOM announced a resumption of poultry imports from certain US states and said China reinstated qualified US beef exporter registrations, while it stated the US and China are seeking to extend the Kuala Lumpur trade agreement.
Geopolitics: Iran
- US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS citing US officials.
- US Senate voted 50-47 to advance war powers resolution that would end US strikes on Iran unless approved by Congress.
- Iran’s IRGC said that if the attack on Iran occurs again, the war will extend beyond the region, Fars News reported.
- Iranian Deputy to the President Banah said Tehran is open to negotiations within national interests, Al Mayadeen reported.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said months after the start of the war on Iran, US Congress acknowledged the loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions, and Iran’s powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as the first to strike down a touted F-35, while he added that with lessons learned and the knowledge they gained, a return to war will feature many more surprises.
- Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks, Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported citing a senior diplomatic source. A diplomatic source says Iran and Pakistan held conflicting positions on negotiation channels and the venue for talks, and says mistrust was affecting coordination between Iran and Pakistan.
- Pakistan’s Interior Minister Naqvi is on route to Tehran, according to Journalist Mallick.
- “On the verge of a decision: Trump and Netanyahu held a phone conversation last night that was described as “lengthy and dramatic,” according to journalist Segal.
- Two Chinese supertankers, carrying 4mln barrels of oil, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to tracking data. It was later reported that India was preparing to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following prior reports regarding the Chinese tankers.
Ukraine
- EU governments are discussing whether former ECB President Draghi or former German Chancellor Merkel could represent the bloc in potential negotiations with Russian President Putin, according to FT.
- Russian strike killed two in Ukraine’s Dnipro and Ukraine reports multiple regional drone attacks, while Russia claims interception of 273 Ukrainian drones, according to AFP.
- Ukraine’s military confirms it struck a Russian oil refinery in the region of Nizhny Novgorod.
Other
- Some Trump advisers reportedly left the US-China summit thinking that a Chinese move on Taiwan was growing more likely, Axios reported. The piece suggested that Taipei is not in panic, at least on the surface
- US President Trump said Cuba is a failed nation that needs help from the US, while he believes a diplomatic deal can be made, according to Semafor.
- US indictment of former Cuban president Raúl Castro is expected to be announced today, according to two federal sources familiar with the investigation cited by NBC News.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00 am: United States May 15 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.7%
- 9:15 am: United States Fed’s Barr Speaks on Consumer Financial Health
- 2:00 pm: United States FOMC Meeting Minutes
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we await earnings from Nvidia, the largest company in the world, tonight, the global bond selloff showed no sign of easing yesterday, with yields at multi-year highs around the world. Long-end Japanese yields are rallying notably this morning though after a firm 20yr auction at historically high yields. Nevertheless front end yields everywhere have climbed over the last 24 hours. There hasn’t been a single catalyst, but with Brent crude holding above $110/bbl and the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, investors moved to price a growing probability of imminent rate hikes. Indeed, the chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026 moved up to 81%, despite the easing bias in their last statement. And significantly, President Trump seemed open to Kevin Warsh proceeding how he wanted to, telling the Washington Examiner that “I’m going to let him do what he wants to do”.
If you’re looking for positives it seems there are three oil tankers currently navigating the Strait this morning, two Chinese and one South Korean. Assuming they get through this would mark one of the busiest days since the closure. So one to watch.
Back to bonds and this upward pressure on yields was clear around the world yesterday, but it was US Treasury yields that saw the biggest jump, with new records across the curve. Most significantly, the 30yr yield (+5.8bps) hit a post-2007 high of 5.18%, whilst the 30yr real yield (+4.0bps) hit a post-2008 high of 2.86%. For shorter maturities, the records weren’t quite so big, but the 10yr yield (+7.9bps) still rose to 4.67%, the highest since January 2025. And with investors bringing forward their rate hike expectations, the 2yr yield (+7.4bps) also hit its highest since February 2025, at 4.12%. The worrying thing would be that with this base in yields formed, where would yields go if strikes resumed on Iran? It’s not inconceivable that we’d return to the bond fears seen on April 9th 2025 a week or so after Liberation Day. That ultimately created the conditions for the US to pull back from the maxamalist tariff regime but the session that morning in Asia was pretty fraught.
The latest rise in nominal and real yields kept up the downward pressure on equities as well. In fact, the S&P 500 (-0.67%) fell for a 3rd consecutive session, which is the first time that’s happened since late-March, right before the index staged one of its fastest rebounds ever. Tech stocks led the declines, with the Magnificent 7 (-1.33%) dragging the index lower. But it wasn’t just the megacaps, as the hawkish repricing also meant the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.01%) had a decent pullback with cyclical stocks seeing a broad underperformance.
Interestingly, yesterday’s rates move came despite pretty stable oil prices, which is noteworthy given how tight the correlation has been between Treasury yields and oil since the Iran conflict began. By the close, Brent crude (-0.73%) was down to $111.28/bbl, though that decline had come after Trump’s comments on Monday evening, with oil prices then creeping higher for most of yesterday’s session. Still, the stabilisation meant inflation expectations actually fell in many countries, and the rates repricing was driven by higher real rates instead. In particular, the 1yr US inflation swap (-1.9bps) fell to 3.37%, whilst the 1yr Euro inflation swap (-2.3bps) fell to 3.84%. The drift lower in Europe came even as natural gas prices recorded an eighth consecutive increase, with TTF gas rising +3.12% to EUR 51.82/MWh, its highest since early April.
In terms of the latest in the Middle East, Trump reiterated his recent threats yesterday, saying that “I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit”. In terms of how long he’d wait, he then said “I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Something maybe early next week — a limited period of time.” So the prospect of an escalation was still being floated. The mood also wasn’t helped by a Wall Street Journal report that mediators saw little progress in the US-Iran talks. By contrast, Vice President Vance suggested that talks had “made a lot of progress” though he also said “we’re locked and loaded” to restart a military campaign against Iran if a deal did not materialise.
In the meantime, there was also a Bloomberg report that NATO was discussing the possibility of a deployment to help ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That came from a senior NATO official, who said it was being considered if the Strait isn’t reopened by early July. The article said the proposal had support from several NATO members, but not unanimous support.
Asian equity markets are mostly lower this morning with the KOSPI (-1.98%) the biggest underperformer after Samsung reversed its initial gains, declining by over -4% following the company’s announcement that negotiations with the union have collapsed due to unresolved differences on several outstanding issues, leading to the decision to initiate a strike. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-1.67%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.36%) are also trading sharply lower with the Hang Seng (-0.55%), the CSI (-0.28%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.66%) out-performing. S&P 500 (-0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.13%) futures are more stable but European stock futures are down nearly three quarters of a percent.
30yr JGBs have rallied around 10bps this morning after a decent 20yr auction but yields out to 10 years are slightly higher. UST yields are around a basis point lower out to 10yrs this morning.
In monetary policy action, the PBOC left benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 12th straight month as authorities balanced the need to support weak domestic demand against rising inflation risks linked to higher global energy prices. The central bank kept one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, in line with market expectations.
In Europe, bond yields also moved up to new highs yesterday. Indeed, the 10yr German yield (+4.4bps) hit to a post-2011 high of 3.19%, and the 30yr German yield (+2.8bps) also hit a post-2011 high of 3.70%. That came as investors dialled up the prospect of an ECB rate hike at the next meeting in June, with the probability up to 89% by the close. Bundesbank President Nagel also pointed in that direction, saying that “This energy supply shock is more persistent, so we are moving away from our baseline scenario”, and that the ECB may “have to do something”. But unlike the US, European equities still managed to post a modest gain, with the STOXX 600 (+0.19%) up for a second day running.
Here in the UK, gilts saw a relative outperformance after a dovish set of labour market data. Notably, the number of payrolled employees was down -100k in April (vs -10k expected), and the unemployment rate for the three months to March rose to 5.0% (vs. 4.9% expected). So that weakness meant investors dialled back the chance of rapid rate hikes from the Bank of England. Indeed, the probability of a hike by the June meeting fell to just 22%, the lowest it’s been in two months. And in turn, gilts outperformed their European counterparts, with the 10yr yield (+3.0bps) seeing a smaller increase to 5.13%.
Over in Canada, the latest CPI print also came in on the dovish side, which led investors to dial back the chance of an imminent rate hike. That showed headline CPI only rising to +2.8% in April (vs. +3.1% expected). Moreover, both of the core measures followed by the Bank of Canada actually fell, with median core down to +2.1% (vs. +2.3% expected), and trim core down to +2.0% (vs. +2.2% expected). So the probability of a rate hike by July fell to just 24%, and in turn that put downward pressure on Canada’s front-end yields. For instance, the 2yr yield (-2.1bps) fell to 3.03%, despite the global moves elsewhere.
On the data front, US pending home sales accelerated to +3.3% yoy in April (vs. +2.1% expected), their strongest annual pace since November 2024. Elsewhere, Eurozone trade data showed the block’s trade surplus falling to 9-month low in March amid higher oil prices and a rising deficit with China. Our European policy analysts discussed the EU push to increase trade defenses against China in a note yesterday (see here).
Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close. Meanwhile, data releases include the UK CPI print for April just after we go to press. Then from central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s April meeting, and also hear from the Fed’s Barr and the ECB’s Sleijpen.
1b) European Opening report
1 c) Asian opening report
Europe primed for a lower open amid lack of progress in US/Iran; hefty speaker slate + NVIDIA earnings due – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 01:48 AM
- Iran’s position in talks with the US to end the war hasn’t changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress towards a deal, according to WSJ, citing mediators and US officials.
- US Vice President Vance said he had spoken with President Trump regarding Iran and stated that Tehran had two options: either reach an agreement or resume the war.
- A US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS, citing US officials.
- Samsung Electronics’ (005930 KS) largest labour union will begin an 18-day strike on 21st May after wage talks broke down, Yonhap reported.
- APAC stocks declined following the weak handover from the US; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.6%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German PPI (Apr), UK Inflation Report (Apr), EU Inflation Final (Apr), New Zealand Trade Balance (Apr), and FOMC Minutes (Apr). Speakers include US President Trump, Fed’s Paulson & Barr, BoE’s Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra & Mann. Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from NVIDIA, Target & Intuit.
SNAPSHOT
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IRAN CONFLICT
- Iran’s position in talks with the US to end the war hasn’t changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress towards a deal, according to WSJ citing mediators and US officials. Furthermore, it was reported that US and Israel had been preparing to carry out new attacks on Iran within days, and some said strikes could still happen as early as next week.
- US seized an Iran-linked ship in the Indian Ocean as US President Trump threatened to resume strikes, according to WSJ citing three US officials.
- US Vice President Vance said he had spoken with President Trump regarding Iran and stated that Tehran had two options: either reach an agreement or resume the war. Vance said significant progress had been made on Iran and noted that the military campaign could be restarted if necessary, but added that Trump did not want to pursue “option B” in Iran. Furthermore, Vance believes Iran wants to make a deal, but stated that “we won’t know until they sign the deal”.
- US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS citing US officials.
- US Senate voted 50-47 to advance war powers resolution that would end US strikes on Iran unless approved by Congress.
- Israeli assessments indicate that US President Trump has made the decision to attack Iran and that implementation is only a matter of time, according to Al Hadath citing Israel’s Channel 12.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said months after the start of the war on Iran, US Congress acknowledged the loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions, and Iran’s powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as the first to strike down a touted F-35, while he added that with lessons learned and the knowledge they gained, a return to war will feature many more surprises.
- Iran said the claim by the US that an Iranian school, which was struck at the beginning of the war, was located within a cruise missile base is ‘baseless’.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ended the day in the red amid the broader risk-off sentiment, although sectors closed more mixed. Sentiment was soured through the duration of the day, while further pressure was seen after WSJ reported that mediators see little progress in Iran-US talks and that Iran’s position to end the war hasn’t changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress towards a deal.
- SPX -0.67% at 7,354, NDX -0.61% at 28,819, DJI -0.65% at 49,369, RUT -1.01% at 2,747.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- Federal authorities are examining whether Chinese companies deliberately restricted the world’s production of storage containers for the shipping trade just before the pandemic began six years ago, while several Chinese executives have been indicted, according to sources cited by CBS.
- China’s MOFCOM confirmed China will purchase 200 Boeing (BA) jets and said the US is expected to provide engines and parts support for the China Boeing deal. MOFCOM announced a resumption of poultry imports from certain US states and said China reinstated qualified US beef exporter registrations, while it stated the US and China are seeking to extend the Kuala Lumpur trade agreement.
- EU lawmakers and member states reached a compromise early on Wednesday to implement a trade pact with the US, aiming to meet President Trump’s July 4th deadline and avert tariff hikes.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said inflation remains too high and interest rate cuts may only happen after inflation is controlled, while he also commented that current policy is appropriate and it is healthy for markets to consider an extended hold or hikes. Paulson stated the US labour market is stable and consumption is slowing, but is resilient, and a rate hike may be considered if growth moves above potential or other inflation risks emerge. Furthermore, he reiterated that he did not see a need to change language at the last policy meeting, as well as noted that risks are ‘super-elevated’ right now to both inflation and the outlook.
- US President Trump is to attend the G7 summit in France in June and is to talk about artificial intelligence, trade and crime-fighting, according to Axios.
- US President Trump signed a fintech Executive Order to protect the US financial system from illicit activity, while it was reported that the White House plans to release an Executive Order on cybersecurity and AI safety as soon as this week, which seeks early government access to advanced models.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks declined following the weak handover from the US, with sentiment dampened amid headwinds from a higher yield environment and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop.
- ASX 200 retreated with the declines led by underperformance in the mining and materials sectors, while a lack of data and firmer yields contributed to the uninspired mood.
- Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 60,000 level with notable pressure in machine tool and electrical equipment manufacturers, while recent comments from Japan’s Finance Minister, and current FX levels were seen to stoke intervention risks.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat sentiment amid bond and inflation woes, with the declines in Hong Kong led by mining, solar and property stocks, while there was a lack of surprises from the PBoC announcement to maintain the benchmark Loan Prime Rates for the 12th consecutive month.
- US equity futures were lacklustre following the recent inflationary concerns and bond selling, while participants look ahead to NVIDIA earnings after-market on Wednesday.
- European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.6% after the cash market closed flat on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY paused overnight after gaining against its major peers yesterday as global government bond yields continued to march higher amid inflationary concerns and the ongoing geopolitical backdrop, with US President Trump suggesting a 2-3 day timeline on Iran, or “maybe until early next week”, and it was also reported that Iran’s position in talks with the US to end the war hasn’t changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress towards a deal. Participants now look ahead to FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA earnings, while there were recent comments from Fed’s Paulson who said that inflation remains too high and interest rate cuts may only happen after inflation is controlled, as well as stated that current policy is appropriate and that it is healthy for markets to consider an extended hold or hike.
- EUR/USD lacked conviction after retreating throughout the prior day amid a firmer buck to breach 1.1600 to the downside, with little help in the single currency from comments by ECB Nagel, who stated the ECB is moving away from the baseline scenario, and will take the next rate decision based on data in June.
- GBP/USD trickled beneath the 1.3400 handle in a somewhat choppy fashion following mixed employment and average earnings data, while the latest UK inflation figures are scheduled for today.
- USD/JPY pulled back beneath the 159.00 level in the absence of any key data releases and with participants mindful of increased intervention risks amid the nearby, critical 160.00 threshold.
- Antipodeans were contained amid the downbeat risk sentiment and sparse overnight calendar.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8397 vs exp. 6.8072 (prev. 6.8375).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were contained following the prior day’s losses amid inflationary concerns and as the Middle East conflict drags on with no clear end in sight, despite US President Trump reiterating that the war will end very quickly and that Iran wants to make a deal badly.
- Bund futures are off the prior day’s trough but with the rebound limited following the recent global bond rout, while participants await German PPI data and a Bund issuance.
- 10yr JGB futures were indecisive following the recent losses in global peers and amid a quiet overnight calendar, while some pressure was seen after a weaker 20yr JGB auction and with sources noting that Japan may introduce new JGBs targeting retail buyers.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were rangebound overnight following the recent choppy performance and as the geopolitical landscape remained uncertain with US President Trump warning that they could hit Iran again, but is not yet sure, and that Iran is begging to make a deal, while he suggested a timeline for Iran could be 2-3 days or early next week. Furthermore, it was reported that the US seized an Iran-linked ship in the Indian Ocean, and Iran’s position in talks with the US to end the war was said not to have changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress towards a deal.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.1mln (exp. -3.4mln), Distillates -1.0mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -5.8mln (exp. -2.1mln), Cushing -1.4mln.
- US Energy Secretary Wright said the US is not going to run out of gas and that high gas prices are a price the US has to pay.
- Two Chinese supertankers, carrying 4mln barrels of oil, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to tracking data. It was later reported that India was preparing to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following prior reports regarding the Chinese tankers.
- UK government permits the provision of certain services and actions related to the import of diesel and jet fuel processed in third countries from Russian crude oil.
- Spot gold mildly retreated after failing to sustain a brief return to above the USD 4,500/oz level.
- Copper futures were subdued amid the mostly negative risk sentiment following the recent global bond rout.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was choppy and kept to within a tight range above the USD 76,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (May) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%)
- Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (May) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%)
- Chinese President Xi met Russian President Putin in Beijing and said that relations have reached their current level due to deepened political mutual trust and strategic cooperation, while Putin said ties between Russia and China support broader international stability. Furthermore, China and Russia plan to deepen continuous strategic coordination, and Putin invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to travel to Russia next year, while Xi told Putin that the world faces the risk of regressing into a “law of the jungle.”
- BoJ Governor Ueda said the latest GDP data is mostly in line with its forecast, and the Middle East situation has begun to have an impact, while they need to closely monitor signs of upward price pressures. Ueda said he is aware that long-term interest rates are rising rapidly and responded that they will assess the market situation and functionality when asked about BoJ tapering plans, while he reiterated that they will take appropriate monetary policy to achieve the inflation target.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are ready to take decisive action on FX.
- Samsung Electronics’ (005930 KS) largest labour union will begin an 18-day strike on 21st May after wage talks broke down, Yonhap reported.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- EU governments are discussing whether former ECB President Draghi or former German Chancellor Merkel could represent the bloc in potential negotiations with Russian President Putin, according to FT.
OTHER
- US President Trump said Cuba is a failed nation that needs help from the US, while he believes a diplomatic deal can be made, according to Semafor.
- US indictment of former Cuban president Raúl Castro is expected to be announced today, according to two federal sources familiar with the investigation cited by NBC News.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE’s Breeden said plans for a digital gilt will make Britain’s sovereign debt more appealing to a wider pool of investors and help lower government borrowing costs, according to City AM.
- UK’s Andy Burnham won’t commit to keeping Labour’s manifesto promises on tax and has opened the door to new tax rises if he becomes PM, while his decision to back the current fiscal rules wins him a reprieve from markets, but it limits his options to fund policies like council house-building, and raises the prospect of tax hikes, according to Bloomberg’s Wickham.
2.a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN
Korean Bubble Mania: Retail Investors Max Out On Margin Debt, Choose To “Risk Complete Collapse” Than Miss Stock Rally
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 06:15 AM
For many years, Koreans were bitcoin’s best friend.
After bitcoin emerged about a decade ago as the asset class with the most pronounced momentum – both to the upside and the downside – Korea’s daytrading army, famous for being totally unable to do any fundamental valuation analysis but legendary for its wilnningness to piggyback on any momentum with suicidal leverage, became enamored with bitcoin and the result were face-ripping meltups and heartstopping crashes, a daily breathless rollercoaster where 10% moves in hours if not minutes had become the norm.
But then, last September something snapped. After bitcoin had tracked Korea’s Kospi index closely for years, the two series – formerly joined at the hips for years – diverged and went their separate ways, the Kospi soaring to never before seen levels, while bitcoin stagnated, shrinking ever lower as its former momentum-addicted traders abandoned it for something shinier, and with much more momentum: memory stocks.
As shown in the chart below, the Kospi-Bitcoin divergence started right around the time last September when memory stocks like Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix began what would be an absolutely historic meltup for the ages (if not so much for bitcoin).
And while we had previously showed our readers a behind the scenes peeks into Korea’s crypto trading culture, nothing prepared us for what is taking place right now… because what is taking place is nothing short of absolute batshit insanity.
Consider this: a single post uploaded May 8 by a Korean civil servant on Blind, the anonymous workplace community app, quickly set off a frenzy online. The post included a screenshot of his brokerage account showing he had poured a staggering 2.3 billion won ($1.7 million) into shares of semiconductor giant SK Hynix, one of the key driving forces behind Korea’s roaring stock market.
But even more striking is that the 1.7 billion won of that investment was financed through margin loans borrowed from his brokerage!
“I believe the semiconductor market will continue its upward climb through 2028, but I’m taking a more aggressive approach to grow my assets faster,” he wrote. Four days later, on May 12, he returned with an update claiming he had already locked in 267 million won in profits.
That same day, another Blind post surfaced – this time from a Seoul Metro employee in her 20s, who wrote that rather than missing out on the rally, she would “risk complete collapse,” adding that she had used 150 percent margin financing to fully leverage into stocks.
As Korea’s bull market barrels ahead, the Korea Times writes that more momentum-addicted retail investors are turning to borrowed money to magnify returns, despite huge risks of losing more than 100% of one’s capital. As of Friday, outstanding margin loans used for stock purchases had ballooned to a record 36.47 trillion won, according to the Korea Financial Investment Association.
While retail investors end up with all the risk, for Korea’s securities firms, the recent retail mania and associated borrowing boom has become a lucrative windfall.
According to recent industry data, the nation’s 10 largest brokerages – Korea Investment & Securities, Mirae Asset, Samsung, Kiwoom, NH, KB, Shinhan, Hana, Meritz and Daishin – generated a combined 600 billion won in interest income from margin lending in the first quarter of this year, up 55.9% from a year earlier.
Margin loans allow investors to borrow money from brokerages to buy stocks by pledging existing assets as collateral. While this can amplify gains, it also comes with annual interest rates ranging from 7 to 9%, and if share prices fall too sharply, brokerages force-sell holdings to recover their loans.
For now, bullish sentiment shows few signs of cooling: with the benchmark KOSPI climbing from the 4,000 range late last year to surpass the historic 8,000 mark in less than half a year, many retail investors appear willing to embrace higher-risk strategies in pursuit of faster gains, similar to what happened in China during the 2015 bubble when margin debt hit daily record highs.
Up 75% this year, the quick ascent of South Korea’s Kospi Index has largely been driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which accounted for more than two-thirds of the advance. The surge reflects record profits at the chipmakers, and with valuations still below regional and global peers, some investors argue the rally lacks the excesses typical of past boom-and-bust cycles.
Wall Street, of course, is more than eager to encourage reckless risk taking: in a May 10 report, JP Morgan raised its base-case KOSPI target to 9,000, with a bull-case projection of 10,000, arguing that investors should “stay positioned for further upside and not preemptively anticipate a cycle-end.”
The investment bank pointed to a “higher for longer” memory chip upcycle, fueled in large part by sustained artificial intelligence-driven demand, while also identifying brokers, insurers, holding companies and dividend-heavy sectors as major beneficiaries of the country’s broader market transformation.
Not everyone agrees.
For one, signs of froth are literally everywhere one looks. Key market measures showing uneven earnings growth, rising volatility and record margin debt are beginning to give some investors pause. “This is a party you want to enjoy while staying near the exit,” said Mo Young, a portfolio manager at RootN Global Investors in Seoul. The problem with this is that everyone thinks they can sell before everyone else does. That “strategy” always ends in tears.
Just like in the US, Korea’s market breadth shows that the rally remains highly concentrated. Just 33% of benchmark stocks are now trading above their 50-day average, down from 70% three weeks ago. Meanwhile, 2% of members – mostly memory and chip stocks – are hitting new 52-week high despite the Kospi’s successive records, which underscores the narrowness of the gains.
“In other words, buying the index is not simply buying a diversified slice of Korea; it is increasingly a concentrated bet on memory semiconductors,” said Christian Heck, a New York-based portfolio manager at First Eagle Investment Management.
“The index itself is no longer obviously cheap, and broad exposure requires underwriting a very large semiconductor-cycle bet,” he added. “Selectivity is essential.”
Palvir Bahia, a fund manager at Polar Capital which manages $40.5 billion said his fund is “monitoring the rising margin debt closely as the market rally has led to an increase in margin debt which heightens market volatility, particularly on down days when retail investors are forced to sell in order to maintain account balances.”
The risk of forced retail liquidations has dragged in the chief of the country’s financial watchdog who expressed concerns that retail investors could suffer losses amid increased market volatility, according to the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) on Tuesday.
During a meeting on consumer risk response a day earlier, FSS governor Lee Chan-jin said retail investors could increasingly pivot toward highly volatile, risky assets as the country is set to introduce single-stock leveraged, or inverse, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) next week.
And just in case record margin debt and historic call buying wasn’t enough, the watchdog warned that the introduction of single-stock leveraged ETFs could further accelerate capital flights to high-risk financial products. Because that’s just what Korea’s stock bubble needs.
A bubble which may burst any minute since cracks are starting to show in the index itself.
The Kospi dropped nearly 5% on Tuesday, the worst performer across Asia, as chip stocks tracked US peers lower amid rising bond yields. The index is now testing the ultra-steep trend line, with the 21-day moving average sitting just below current levels. As Market Ear notes, “these are short-term make-or-break levels for the AI melt-up.”
As we have observed previously, the Kospi is basically two memory stocks, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which is why the Kospi is basically the SOX on steroids.
With everyone ignoring stocks and plowing their margin debt right into calls for leverage upon leverage, the Kospi VIX is now a broken market. The spot-up, vol-up regime which signals a “melt-up” phase driven by FOMO and extreme positioning, has been unlike anything seen before, resulting in many investors dismissing buying protection due to stratospheric vols. First, the VIX soared as stocks surged (due to call buying); now vol stays high as the KOSPI sells off. Vols at these levels are pricing around 4.5% daily index moves going forward! That’s not just extreme, that’s batshit insane, and virtually guarantees that all levered investors will be wiped out unless they have tons of available cash balances to absorb margin calls, which they don’t.
With Samsung and SK Hynix posting record profits, signs of froth are also emerging in smaller stocks where earnings growth is virtually non-existant. Non-tech firms have driven just 4% of the 12-month earnings gain since September, according to William Bratton, head of cash equities research for APAC at BNP Paribas.
Valuations are particularly stretched in materials sectors, which include electric-vehicle firms, trading at nearly 60 times forward earnings. Battery maker Posco Future M Co. stands out at over 300 times, despite carrying the highest number of sell ratings on the Kospi, Bloomberg data shows.
“If there is a meaningful slowdown of inflow from retail investors or systematic traders, or if hedge funds reduce their big positions that were most profitable, the market structure could become even more fragile,” Kim added.
And it’s about to get much more fragile: as Goldman notes, foreigners have net sold the Kospi for the 9th consecutive day (and have been aggressively selling for much of 2026) with today’s latest selling focused in Tech (-$3.4bn). And while local institutions were net sellers for most part of the day, they closed as small net buyers with buying concentrated in Tech (+$168mn). Meanwhile, the willing target of everyone else’s distribution, retail investors, have continued to be net buyers and absorbed all of the supply from foreigners… the same retail investors who are now levered to the gills and are out of funds, so they are buying with the bank’s money.
As we pointed out a week ago, hedging Korea, and partly the broader AI mania, via EWY looked interesting. The last major upside overshoot at the start of the Iran war, eventually mean-reverted all the way back toward the 50 day moving average. Having previously outlined the EWY put spread logic, with the unwind starting to accelerate again, it’s time to start thinking about rolling strikes lower to keep max optionality.
KOSPI may be turning from the leader of the AI melt-up into the market’s most important stress signal, and when it blows, millions of levered retail investors will lose everything they own, and more thanks to the magic of leverage.
Korean Bubble Mania: Retail Investors Max Out On Margin Debt, Choose To “Risk Complete Collapse” Than Miss Stock Rally
Yes, this accurately describes the current frenzy in South Korea’s stock market.
zerohedge.com
South Korea is experiencing a powerful equity rally, largely driven by semiconductor/AI demand (especially Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which dominate the KOSPI). The index has surged dramatically—up roughly 75%+ YTD in 2026 at points, hitting records near or above 8,000 before pulling back. As of mid-May 2026, it’s trading in the 7,000–7,300 range amid volatility.
finance.yahoo.comKey Evidence of Retail-Driven Leverage Mania
- Record margin debt: Outstanding margin loans (borrowed money from brokerages to buy stocks) hit all-time highs around 35–36.5 trillion won (~$24–26+ billion) in recent weeks/months. This has roughly doubled from a year earlier and surged 140% since the start of 2025, with further sharp gains in 2026. facebook.com
- Retail FOMO behavior: Individual (“ant”) investors are aggressively buying, often with high leverage (e.g., 150% margin financing in some reported cases). Examples include a civil servant leveraging heavily into SK Hynix and younger workers saying they’d “risk complete collapse” rather than miss out. Older investors (50s+) hold a large share of the debt. zerohedge.com
- Broader borrowing: Credit lines at major banks have spiked (over 41 trillion won at the top 5), with retail pouring in via leveraged ETFs, derivatives, and even tapping retirement accounts or life insurance. Brokerages earned ~600 billion won in Q1 2026 interest income from margin lending alone (up ~56%). @BullTheoryio
- Concentration risk: The rally is narrow, heavily tied to a few chip stocks. Market breadth is poor, valuations are stretched in places, and volatility is elevated. cnbc.com
This echoes classic bubble dynamics seen in prior episodes (e.g., China’s 2015 margin-fueled mania or Korea’s own past cycles). High leverage amplifies upside but sets up forced liquidations on downturns—regulators have already voiced concerns about volatility and potential retail losses.
upi.com
Bull Case vs. RisksBullish arguments include strong AI-driven chip demand, still-reasonable valuations vs. global peers for some names, and expectations of continued inflows (e.g., MSCI rebalancing). Some banks like JPM have high targets (e.g., 9,000+).
zerohedge.comBearish risks are significant: Foreign selling has occurred at times, narrow leadership, extreme positioning, and the potential for a sharp unwind if sentiment shifts. Recent sessions have shown big drops (e.g., 3–5%+ days), highlighting fragility. History shows these retail-leveraged rallies often end painfully when momentum reverses.
cnbc.com
In short, the headline captures a real, ongoing phenomenon—classic late-cycle exuberance in a retail-heavy market. It’s sustainable until it’s not; leverage works both ways. Monitor chip cycle news, global rates, and any forced-selling triggers closely.
END
Samsung Union Authorizes Massive Strike At Memory-Chip Plants After Mediation Talks Collapse
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Asian equities extended losses for a fourth straight session, with South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI falling about 1% as the market priced in the shock of an imminent labor action at Samsung Electronics.
A full-scale, 18-day strike involving more than 47,000 workers at the world’s largest memory-chip maker is set to begin Thursday, raising the risk of production disruptions across the global semiconductor supply chain, which is already tight due to AI data center buildouts.
Samsung Electronics’ talks with its largest union collapsed overnight as union negotiators demanded the removal of a bonus cap, allocation of 15% of operating profit to worker bonuses, and that those terms be written into contracts, citing memory-chip maker SK Hynix’s 10% profit-sharing arrangement.
Samsung negotiators accepted most of the demands, including a proposed 10% operating profit bonus pool and special compensation, but called the union’s remaining requests unsustainable.
“We deeply regret that the post-mediation process has concluded [without resolution] due to delays in decision-making by the management,” Samsung Electronics Labor Union Chairman Choi Seung-ho told reporters at the National Labor Relations Commission in the city of Sejong. “We cannot help but feel disappointed that the mediation ended without the company ultimately reaching a decision.”
Japan’s financial outlet Nikkei Asia reported, “The strike would affect only the company’s domestic plants, which are the base of its chipmaking operations.”
The collapse in talks comes as Samsung shares surge on record profits, driven by soaring demand for memory chips, even as hyperscalers are set to deploy $700 billion in capex to build AI infrastructure in the US. Demand is also rising globally as the race for AI compute intensifies.
TrendForce data show that Samsung is the world’s largest memory chipmaker, with a 36% market share in DRAM chips and one-third in NAND Flash chips.
Commenting on the market reaction, UBS analyst Joe Dickinson noted:
“Asia was lower for a fourth consecutive session, with the KOSPI dropping as much as 3% on Samsung strike risk before partially recovering.”
UBS analyst Kevin Loke commented on the FX reaction:
USDKRW initially traded with an offered tone, with spot opening at 1513.4 and falling nearly 10 won to a low of 1503.8. However, headlines that the Samsung union strike will proceed as planned on Thursday, following a breakdown in talks, pushed the pair back higher toward 1510.
A BoK report to the president estimated a potential impact of up to KRW30 trillion in lost production. For now, USDKRW is likely to remain within a broader 1480–1520 range, with the pair relatively less sensitive to the recent thematic shift toward the global bond sell-off.
Samsung shares fell as much as 4.4% before reversing their losses. Notice “Samsung Strike” headlines in corporate media weighing on shares…
Coverage:
- Samsung Strike Threat Sparks Selling Contagion In Memory Stocks
- Samsung, South Korean Union Resume Talks As Strike Threat Risks Disrupting Memory Chip Fabs
- Samsung, Union Resume Talks After Labor Action Scare; Goldman Says “Korea: Buy”
Bloomberg pointed out, “The government has previously hinted that it could resort to rarely used emergency powers to prevent a strike if the parties fail to reach an agreement. South Korea has invoked the emergency arbitration mechanism only four times since 1969.”
END
THEN
Samsung Union Postpones Massive General Strike, Puts Wage Deal To Vote
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 10:08 AM
Summary:
- Samsung Union Postpones Massive Strike For Union Vote On Saturday
- Samsung Union Authorizes Massive Strike At Memory-Chip Plants After Mediation Talks Collapse
Samsung Union Postpones General Strike For Weekend Vote
Late Wednesday night in South Korea, Samsung and its largest union held last-minute negotiations ahead of a massive general strike.
Vice Minister Kwon Chang-jun of the Ministry of Employment and Labor joined the negotiating table between Samsung and its largest union, a move that appears to have led to a breakthrough.
South Korea’s national wire service, Yonhap, reports that the union has postponed plans for a strike tomorrow and will put a tentative wage deal to a vote.
“We will postpone the general strike scheduled for May 21-June 7 until further notice,” Samsung and the union wrote in a joint press release.
The vote on the tentative wage deal begins on Saturday.
Earlier, the union pressed forward with plans for a general strike at Samsung chip fabs due to the company negotiators’ inability to scrap an existing bonus cap, allocate 15% of operating profit to worker bonuses, and formalize these new demands in a wage contract.
Samsung had previously proposed allocating 10% of operating profit to bonuses, along with a one-time special compensation package for workers that is well above industry standards.
Samsung executives argued that the union’s demands would be challenging to sustain in the coming years.
Why the union is striking…
Crisis averted? Well, all eyes are on the weekend vote.
Samsung Union Authorizes Massive Strike At Memory-Chip Plants After Mediation Talks Collapse
Asian equities extended losses for a fourth straight session, with South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI falling about 1% as the market priced in the shock of an imminent labor action at Samsung Electronics.
A full-scale, 18-day strike involving more than 47,000 workers at the world’s largest memory-chip maker is set to begin Thursday, raising the risk of production disruptions across the global semiconductor supply chain, which is already tight due to AI data center buildouts.
Samsung Electronics’ talks with its largest union collapsed overnight as union negotiators demanded the removal of a bonus cap, allocation of 15% of operating profit to worker bonuses, and that those terms be written into contracts, citing memory-chip maker SK Hynix’s 10% profit-sharing arrangement.
Samsung negotiators accepted most of the demands, including a proposed 10% operating profit bonus pool and special compensation, but called the union’s remaining requests unsustainable.
“We deeply regret that the post-mediation process has concluded [without resolution] due to delays in decision-making by the management,” Samsung Electronics Labor Union Chairman Choi Seung-ho told reporters at the National Labor Relations Commission in the city of Sejong. “We cannot help but feel disappointed that the mediation ended without the company ultimately reaching a decision.”
Japan’s financial outlet Nikkei Asia reported, “The strike would affect only the company’s domestic plants, which are the base of its chipmaking operations.”
The collapse in talks comes as Samsung shares surge on record profits, driven by soaring demand for memory chips, even as hyperscalers are set to deploy $700 billion in capex to build AI infrastructure in the US. Demand is also rising globally as the race for AI compute intensifies.
TrendForce data show that Samsung is the world’s largest memory chipmaker, with a 36% market share in DRAM chips and one-third in NAND Flash chips.
Commenting on the market reaction, UBS analyst Joe Dickinson noted:
“Asia was lower for a fourth consecutive session, with the KOSPI dropping as much as 3% on Samsung strike risk before partially recovering.”
UBS analyst Kevin Loke commented on the FX reaction:
USDKRW initially traded with an offered tone, with spot opening at 1513.4 and falling nearly 10 won to a low of 1503.8. However, headlines that the Samsung union strike will proceed as planned on Thursday, following a breakdown in talks, pushed the pair back higher toward 1510.
A BoK report to the president estimated a potential impact of up to KRW30 trillion in lost production. For now, USDKRW is likely to remain within a broader 1480–1520 range, with the pair relatively less sensitive to the recent thematic shift toward the global bond sell-off.
Samsung shares fell as much as 4.4% before reversing their losses. Notice “Samsung Strike” headlines in corporate media weighing on shares…
Coverage:
JAPAN
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
3. CHINA/
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
THE DOORKNOB WOULD NOT LET THIS FEMALE DUTCH REPORTER INTO THE COUNTRY:
Starmer Hit With Legal Threat After Barring Conservative Speakers From Entering UK For National Rally
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been issued with a formal letter of claim after several foreign politicians, commentators, and activists were blocked from entering the United Kingdom ahead of a major rally in London last weekend.
The legal threat was announced over the weekend by Dutch commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek, who said she and others had instructed a lawyer to act on their behalf over potentially defamatory remarks made by the prime minister last week.
“Today, Dominik Tarczyński, Don Keith, Ada Lluch, Joey Mannarino, and I have formally instructed our lawyer, Francesco Gargallo di Castel Lentini, to issue a Letter of Claim to Keir Starmer,” Vlaardingerbroek wrote on X. The lawyer mentioned is Vlaardingerbroek’s Italian husband.
Enough is enough. Today, @D_Tarczynski, @RealDonKeith, @AdaLluch, @JoeyMannarino and I have formally instructed our lawyer, @Fr_Gargallo, to issue a Letter of Claim to @Keir_Starmer. The letter demands that he immediately retract his defamatory statements in which he labelled us
“The letter demands that he immediately retract his defamatory statements in which he labelled us ‘far-right agitators’ who wish to incite violence.
“Should he fail to comply, we reserve all our legal rights to pursue further action against him.”
The dispute follows a speech delivered by Starmer last Monday in which he said his government had barred what he described as “far-right agitators” from entering Britain to attend the Unite the Kingdom march organized by Tommy Robinson.
The demonstration took place in London on Saturday. Ahead of the event, those named in the letter received notices from the Home Office informing them that their U.K. Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) had been cancelled. The message stated that their presence in Britain was not considered “conducive to the public good.”
Among those affected was Polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński, a conservative politician and outspoken opponent of mass migration.
“This is what communism looks like in the 21st Century. I have just been denied entry to the U.K. in order to speak at the largest patriotic event in Europe,” Tarczyński wrote on social media after being refused entry.
In total, 11 people were reportedly banned from entering the U.K. to attend the rally. They included American nationals, Don Keith and Joey Mannarino, and Spanish conservative influencer Ada Lluch.
Mannarino wrote in response, “None of us want to incite violence. None of us are agitators. We are simply people who want to see Europe remain Europe, the U.K. remain the U.K., America remain America, and so on.”
The letter of claim, dated May 13, was addressed to Starmer at 10 Downing Street and described the prime minister’s remarks as “potentially defamatory, untrue and denigratory.” It said the statements had been made against private citizens, parliamentarians, and lawyers, and demanded a formal retraction.
The row also comes amid broader warnings issued ahead of those attending the London protest. The Metropolitan Police cautioned that certain placards and chants could amount to hate crimes and lead to prosecution.
Those warnings followed new guidance from the Crown Prosecution Service on acts that may be treated as stirring up hatred.
Director of Public Prosecutions Stephen Parkinson defended the guidance, saying, “This is not about restricting free speech. It is about preventing hate crime and protecting the public, particularly at a time of heightened tensions.”
END
UK
UK Schools Push Radical Race Doctrine On Kids, Claiming Black People ‘Cannot Be Racist’
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Schools in the north of England are teaching pupils that black people cannot be racist towards white people.
According to materials adopted by a group of Sheffield schools, led by Notre Dame High School, teenagers are explicitly told: “Black people can be racially prejudiced towards a white person which is wrong and totally unacceptable. However, this is not racism. Racism is racial prejudice plus power. In the UK, white people hold the cultural power.”
For children as young as 7, lessons focus on “empathy building” around “privilege,” asserting that white people are “likely to be privileged by the colour of their skin” and have a “responsibility” to reduce racism by monitoring their language, challenging friends, and reporting incidents.
Handouts for older pupils push narratives on criminal justice, claiming black people are disproportionately targeted by police due to racism, with questions guiding students toward that conclusion.
The scheme aims to “interrupt systemic racism” and promote “strong social justice values,” according to its creators.
Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott slammed the materials, noting “It is deeply alarming that children as young as seven are being exposed to divisive identity politics in schools under the banner of ‘anti-racism education’… Labelling children by race and teaching them to focus on what divides them will only foster resentment and deepen division.”
Shadow minister Neil O’Brien called it “political indoctrination” and vowed to tackle such content.
These latest examples highlight a disturbing pattern in UK education: grooming children with critical race theory concepts, framing whiteness as inherently privileged and problematic, while shielding certain groups from accountability and cracking down on any dissent.
CRAZY: Nurseries Urged To Report ‘Racist’ TODDLERS To Police In £1.3M Scheme
This comes as nurseries in Wales, funded by over £1.3 million in taxpayer money, have been urged to report “racist” incidents involving toddlers to police, turning playgrounds into surveillance hubs for the state’s anti-racism agenda.
Childcare workers are being trained to spot and log “racist incidents” by children barely out of nappies, with instructions to contact police via 999 or 101 if it could amount to a hate crime.https://modernity.news/2026/05/06/crazy-nurseries-urged-to-report-racist-toddlers-to-police-in-1-3m-scheme/embed/#?secret=cfrRV7PW0H
Funded by the Welsh Government and pushed by Diversity and Anti-Racist Professional Learning (DARPL) at Cardiff Metropolitan University, the program covers over 300 nurseries, playgroups, and childminders. It demands audits of resources for “diversity” and discussions of skin colour with toddlers to create “anti-racist” environments from the cradle.
Critics rightly point out that toddlers lack the cognitive ability to be racist, yet the state treats them as potential thought criminals.
UK schools have also pushed books telling children “there’s plenty of room” for small boat migrants, framing mass illegal immigration as something positive and inevitable.https://modernity.news/2026/04/30/uk-schools-pushing-books-on-kids-telling-them-theres-plenty-of-room-for-small-boat-migrants/embed/#?secret=Py62eqswVo
The Green Party has also floated such extreme proposals for what to teach children, while the government urges schools to snitch on “anti-Muslim hostility” in an Orwellian surveillance push.https://modernity.news/2026/03/19/you-wont-believe-what-the-uk-green-party-wants-to-teach-children/embed/#?secret=vbCPyJLmwg
Counter-terror police have warned teens that sharing “funny content” could be terrorism, and a taxpayer-funded video game literally flags kids questioning mass migration as potential extremists.https://modernity.news/2026/03/05/uk-counter-terror-police-ad-warns-teens-sharing-funny-content-could-be-terrorism/embed/#?secret=yKaHTS9xyD
Parents of a child who questioned why he had to celebrate Ramadan in school when he is not a Muslim were sent a letter informing them of the ‘racist’ incident.https://www.youtube.com/embed/9KTipJatQ_o
British children are being conditioned to view their own heritage and skin colour as sources of guilt, accept open borders and cultural replacement without question, and self-censor any pushback—or face reports, labels, and potential police involvement.
This is not education. It is state-sponsored division and thought control, bankrolled by taxpayers under a Labour government disconnected from reality.
Parents are waking up to the grooming, and the pushback is growing. Childhood must be reclaimed from ideologues before an entire generation is lost to this divisive nonsense. Freedom of thought and equal standards for all—not racial power games—should define British values.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
FRANCE
Nearly Half Of French Voters May Support National Rally, And Immigration Is A Major Concern
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Last Friday, an Ipsos poll conducted for the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, Le Monde, and Cevipof indicated that 45 percent of French voters are now considering voting for the National Rally (RN) in the 2027 elections, meaning the anti-migration party’s candidate is favored to win the presidency.
According to Antoine Bristielle, director of the Foundation’s Opinion Observatory, the poll shows that RN “has managed to unite very different electorates around a common foundation, but that its cohesion remains fragile as soon as one moves away from this foundation.”
The Jean-Jaurès Foundation identifies four main profiles of RN voters, which can be grouped into two categories.
The “identity-based liberals” include older, politically engaged voters firmly rooted in the right, as well as the “forgotten France,” which represents “a working-class bloc, more economically vulnerable, marked by a strong sense of abandonment and combining demands for social protection with identity radicalism.”
However, the other two groups are more recent profiles, demonstrating the RN’s expansion to new voters.
The “shifting France,” representing those “less politically engaged and still uncertain,” and the “opportunistic radical right.”
This latter group of voters, seen as “more affluent, more educated, and highly politically engaged,” is, according to the report, “already largely aligned with the RN’s positions” but may have voted for other right-wing parties in the past.
Immigration, as expected, is a paramount topic for at least three of the four groups.
“There are too many immigrants in France” is confirmed by 97 percent of “forgotten France,” 99 percent of “identity-based liberals,” 43 percent of “shifting France,” and 96 percent of “opportunistic radical right.”
As to the statement, “Now, I no longer feel as at home as before,” the percentages of support were 96, 98, 72, and 94, respectively.
The full study is available here.
END
UK
A “Rubbish, Knee-Jerk Reaction”: UK Treasury Pushes Food Price Caps As Inflation Re-Accelerates
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 06:55 AM
UK supermarkets are being urged by the government to limit food prices in return for easing regulations.
As first reported by The Financial Times, the price caps are ‘voluntary’ and would apply to key groceries – such as eggs, bread, and milk – according to retail industry sources with knowledge of the plans.
In return, the government has said it would offer “incentives” to the supermarkets, which the people said could include easing packaging policies and potentially delaying costly changes to rules around healthy food.
As one may well expect, supermarkets are understood to be strongly opposed to the plans.
The Treasury has declined to comment.
The proposals come as Sir Keir Starmer’s government is battling to address public concern over the cost of living.
Scottish retailers recently condemned a similar policy by the Scottish National Party as a “1970s-style” gimmick.
One person close to a supermarket said the Treasury’s initiative was “a rubbish, knee-jerk reaction to the SNP”.
UK food inflation rose to 3.7 per cent in April, and the foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, has warned the world is “sleepwalking into a global food crisis”, with the Middle East war throttling supply chains.
And in line with the magical thinking, the Treasury has also told supermarkets that it would like guarantees that British farmers would not lose income from shop price caps.
Former Brexit minister Lord Frost weighed in on social media platform X, calling the proposal “remarkable (and remarkably bad) if true.
“There are certainly plenty of people in this govt whose understanding of economics is so poor that they might consider it a good idea.”
SNP leader John Swinney has defended his party’s approach, arguing he faces a “public health responsibility” to ensure affordable nutrition for people “struggling to afford a very basic shop.”
“It is a completely ill-thought-out, last-minute idea . . . The idea that the government can set price better than the market is for the birds,” one person familiar with the discussions told the FT.
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
IRAN/VS ISRAEL/USA
Iran Warns Will Take War ‘Beyond The Region’ If Trump Restarts Attacks
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 08:50 AM
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, has summed up where things stand: “Since the ceasefire came into effect, both Washington and Tehran appear to be operating under the illusion that time is on their side,” he said. “Each seems to believe that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz impose greater costs on the other, while offering a breathing space to regroup for a possible resumption of hostilities,” Vaez told Al Jazeera.
On Wednesday Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a fresh warning amid this ongoing standoff, warning that the Middle East war will extend beyond the region if the United States and Israel resume their attacks.
“If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will this time spread far beyond the region, and our devastating blows will crush you,” the IRGC say in the statement published to their website Sepah News.
The warring sides are no closer to getting back to the negotiating table, after President Trump has given just a few ‘days’ to comply on the nuclear issue, which so far Tehran has not budged on.
But in the meantime Iran still sees American guarantees as “insufficient” regarding a renewed war, Al Arabiya reports Wednesday. The Supreme Leader, who is still in hiding and believed to be recovering from serious injuries that resulted from prior airstrikes, has issued a fresh written message to the public:
Mojtaba Khamenei has commemorated the second anniversary of the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, saying the country is putting up a “unique historical resistance against two global terrorist armies” in Israel and the US, the Fars News Agency reports.
In another written statement, Khamenei said the war was making the burden on officials “heavier than before”, adding that he was grateful for the “unity of the nation”.
In the Strait of Hormuz, there’s been a continued trickle of tankers making it through, reportedly after Beijing asked:
Two Chinese tankers laden with oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, shipping data showed, brightening hopes that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may soon be resolved after positive comments from the US president and his deputy.
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the war would be over “very quickly” while Vice President JD Vance talked up progress in talks with Tehran about an agreement to end hostilities.
And reports of a South Korean tanker safely traversing at this point:
A South Korean oil tanker is currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s top diplomat said on Wednesday, in a report from AFP.
“At this very moment, our oil tanker is passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told lawmakers at the National Assembly in Seoul.
Ship-tracking site MarineTraffic showed the South Korea-flagged tanker Universal Winner on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz near the entrance to the Gulf of Oman, bound for the southeastern South Korean city of Ulsan after departing Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi port.
As a reminder of prior Trump threats this week, and the typically vague timetable, the president on Tuesday renewed warnings that he could imminently resume bombing Iran, declaring the country will face a “big hit” if it refuses to accept US demands for a deal within days.
Netanyahu and Trump held what Israel’s N12 News described as a “lengthy and dramatic” phone call overnight, amid growing speculation over a possible new strike on Iran.
Netanyahu will skip both the opening of the Knesset session and a key vote on dissolving parliament today
“Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time, because we can’t let them have a new nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters. Trump had the day prior said he was “holding off” on striking Iran on after requests from Gulf Arab states. Then he followed by claiming the attack was moments away from being launched. “We were all set to go… It would have been happening right now.”
* * *
More latest developments via Newsquawk:
- US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS citing US officials.
- US Senate voted 50-47 to advance war powers resolution that would end US strikes on Iran unless approved by Congress.
- Iran’s IRGC said that if the attack on Iran occurs again, the war will extend beyond the region, Fars News reported.
- Iranian Deputy to the President Banah said Tehran is open to negotiations within national interests, Al Mayadeen reported.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said months after the start of the war on Iran, US Congress acknowledged the loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions, and Iran’s powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as the first to strike down a touted F-35, while he added that with lessons learned and the knowledge they gained, a return to war will feature many more surprises.
- Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks, Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported citing a senior diplomatic source. A diplomatic source says Iran and Pakistan held conflicting positions on negotiation channels and the venue for talks, and says mistrust was affecting coordination between Iran and Pakistan.
- Pakistan’s Interior Minister Naqvi is on route to Tehran, according to Journalist Mallick.
- “On the verge of a decision: Trump and Netanyahu held a phone conversation last night that was described as “lengthy and dramatic,” according to journalist Segal.
- Two Chinese supertankers, carrying 4mln barrels of oil, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to tracking data. It was later reported that India was preparing to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following prior reports regarding the Chinese tankers.
- END
IRAN VS ISRAEL/USA
Israel, US early war goals sought to reinstate Iran’s Ahmadinejad as leader, NYT reports
An associate of Ahmadinejad told the NYT that the Americans viewed Mr. Ahmadinejad as someone who could lead Iran and manage “Iran’s political, social, and military situation.”
Former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at a press conference after registering as a candidate for the presidential election, at Tehran’s Interior Ministry, June 2024.(photo credit: Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters)ByMAYA ZANGER-NADISMAY 20, 2026 08:37Updated: MAY 20, 2026 13:09
Israel and the United States went into Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury with the goal of reinstating former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the nation’s new leader, according to a Tuesday New York Times report citing US officials briefed on the matter.
An associate of Ahmadinejad told the NYT that the Americans viewed Mr. Ahmadinejad as someone who could lead Iran and manage “Iran’s political, social, and military situation.”
Ahmadinejad served as Iranian president from 2005 until 2013. Following this, he has been barred three times from running for president again by an unelected 12-member Guardian Council, in 2017, 2021, and 2024. After the 2017 disqualification, he reportedly also became a vocal critic of Ali Khamenei.
He is also known, per the NYT, for his hard-line anti-Israel and anti-American views.
Ahmadinejad’s freedom of movement had been restricted following the mass anti-regime protests in January, according to a March report by The Atlantic. His phones were reportedly confiscated, and the number of his bodyguards was raised to approximately 50.
The March Atlantic report also revealed that the joint Israel-US strike on Ahmadinejad’s home was an attempt to free rather than assassinate him. Following this discovery, an associate of the former Iranian president told the NYT he did indeed view the strike as a jailbreak attempt.
The plan to reinstall Ahmadinejad was initially developed by Israel and had been discussed with him, the NYT claimed. However, the report said the plan ultimately failed after he was wounded during the jailbreak attempt and his whereabouts and condition since the strike are unknown. Since his alleged escape, Ahmadinejad has delivered a few public addresses, including a congratulatory message on Mojtaba Khamenei’s rise to the position of supreme leader.
Ahmadinejad would have been an unusual choice
The NYT reported that Ahmadinejad would have been a highly unorthodox choice to replace the current Iranian regime, noting that during his term as president, he was known for his calls to “wipe Israel off the map.” He was also a strong proponent of Iran’s nuclear program, the NYT noted.
Neither US nor Israeli officials commented on the matter directly when asked by the NYT.
“From the outset, President Trump was clear about his goals for Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles, dismantle their production facilities, sink their navy, and weaken their proxy,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told the NYT in response to a request for comment about the regime change plan and Ahmadinejad.
“The United States military met or exceeded all of its objectives, and now, our negotiators are working to make a deal that would end Iran’s nuclear capabilities for good.”
The spokesperson for Israel’s Mossad was also contacted by the NYT for a comment and declined.
Ahmadinejad expresses support for Trump, Pahlavi royal family
Despite being vocal about his distaste for the US and Israel, Ahmadinejad praised US President Donald Trump in a 2019 NT interview.
“Mr. Trump is a man of action,” Ahmadinejad said in 2019. “He is a businessman, and therefore he is capable of calculating cost-benefits and making a decision. We say to him, let’s calculate the long-term cost-benefit of our two nations and not be shortsighted.”
What is more, the NYT reported that people close to the former Iranian president have been accused of spying for Israel and having close ties to Western powers. Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, Ahmadinejad’s former chief of staff, was put on trial in 2018, and the judge in the case publicly asked about his links to British and Israeli spy agencies, according to the NYT.
In 2024, Iran International reported that Ahmadinejad said that he would be open to economic relations and talks with the United States under a Trump presidency.
He has also been vocal in his support of the Iranian monarchy, whose head, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, has been outspoken against the Iranian regime.
“They [The Pahlavi monarchy] contributed to the country even before the [Islamic] revolution took place,” Ahmadinejad reportedly said in 2017. “While we may have reservations about certain methods they employed, they also aimed to address inflation and improve welfare during that period.”
Miriam Sela-Eitam contributed to this report.
END
I WILL GIVE IT A 1% CHANCE!!
Crude Tumbles As Pakistan Hints ‘Final Draft’ Iran Peace Agreement Is Imminent
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 10:25 AM
Update(1025ET): Crude prices tumbled on a regional Al Hadath headline suggesting the “achievement of a final draft” of what will be Iran’s latest peace proposal, though the recent pattern of this has shown little will likely come of it with Washington, amid ongoing apparent zero sum demands from each warring side.
- Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text. Next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after Hajj season: Al Hadath
- Event Sources: If the Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours
More per Newsquawk…
[MARKET UPDATE] Brent falls in excess of USD 3/bbl, WTI slips below USD 100/bbl, Equities bid and USD hit on reports the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text
Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text; The next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after the Hajj season (25th to 30th May), Al Hadath reports
- Sources say if Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours.
- Work is underway in earnest to put the finishing touches on the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.
END
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
Iran’s Chief Negotiator Claims US Seeking To ‘Start A New War’ – As Trump Curiously Teases ‘Final Stages’ Of Talks
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 11:35 AM
Summary
- Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war
- Oil tumbles after Pakistan again touts final deal draft text imminent, followed by Trump claiming US in ‘final stages’ of peace talks with Iran, though Tehran hasn’t budged on nuclear issue.
- Tehran (IRGC) warns next round of war could spread conflict ‘beyond the region’ – which was cast as a threat.
- Iran’s IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours “in coordination” with Iranian authorities.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 35% · No 66%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Ghalibaf: US Seeking To ‘Start A New War’
Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war and still hopes the Islamic Republic will surrender:
“The enemy’s movements, both overt and clandestine, show that despite economic and political pressure, it has not abandoned its military objectives and is seeking to start a new war,” Ghalibaf said in an audio message carried by Iranian media.
“Close monitoring of the situation in the United States reinforces the possibility that they still hope for the surrender of the Iranian nation,” he adds.
Trump has given Iran ‘days’ – or also till the start of next week to come back to the table; however, on Wednesday he’s actually touting a ‘final’ deal draft is near, despite Iran still not budging on the nuclear issue.
Oil Plunges Further on Trump Comment
Again, possibly just more jawboning, but oil’s Wednesday morning plunge deepened upon Trump touting ‘final stages’ of talks with Iran… all of this as usually looking very premature…
- TRUMP SAYS US IN ‘FINAL STAGES’ OF TALKS WITH IRAN: POOL REPORT
- TRUMP SAYS ‘WE’LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS’ W/ IRAN: POOL REPORT
- TRUMP: DO WE FINISH IRAN UP OR WILL THEY SIGN, LET’S SEE
- TRUMP: SEEING IN IRAN THAT US IS RESPECTED
Another Likely Premature ‘Final’ Peace Draft Headline, Oil Tumbles
Crude prices tumbled on a regional Al Hadath headline suggesting the “achievement of a final draft” of what will be Iran’s latest peace proposal, though the recent pattern of this has shown little will likely come of it with Washington, amid ongoing apparent zero sum demands from each warring side.
- Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text. Next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after Hajj season: Al Hadath
- Event Sources: If the Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours
More per Newsquawk…
[MARKET UPDATE] Brent falls in excess of USD 3/bbl, WTI slips below USD 100/bbl, Equities bid and USD hit on reports the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text
Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text; The next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after the Hajj season (25th to 30th May), Al Hadath reports
- Sources say if Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours.
- Work is underway in earnest to put the finishing touches on the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.
BUT…
IRGC Warns: Next Conflict Round Could Unleash ‘War Beyond the Region’
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, has summed up where things stand: “Since the ceasefire came into effect, both Washington and Tehran appear to be operating under the illusion that time is on their side,” he said. “Each seems to believe that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz impose greater costs on the other, while offering a breathing space to regroup for a possible resumption of hostilities,” Vaez told Al Jazeera.
On Wednesday Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a fresh warning amid this ongoing standoff, warning that the Middle East war will extend beyond the region if the United States and Israel resume their attacks.
END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON:
US Marines Board Iranian Tanker As Trump Teases ‘Final Stages’ Of Talks, But Tehran Warns ‘New War’ On Horizon
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 01:10 PM
Summary
- US Marines board Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman, as it was accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade.
- Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war
- Oil tumbles after Pakistan again touts final deal draft text imminent, followed by Trump claiming US in ‘final stages’ of peace talks with Iran, though Tehran hasn’t budged on nuclear issue.
- Tehran (IRGC) warns next round of war could spread conflict ‘beyond the region’ – which was cast as a threat.
- Iran’s IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours “in coordination” with Iranian authorities.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 35% · No 66%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
US Marines Board Iran-Flagged Tanker
The Pentagon has announced that US Marines have boarded another Iranian-flagged tanker, this time in the Gulf of Oman. It had been accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade, after which it was boarded.
But, as CENTCOM says, “American forces released the vessel after searching and directing the ship’s crew to alter course.” This as Iran’s IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours “in coordination” with Iranian authorities (per state news).
Iran Confirms Ongoing Exchange of Messages with US
Some latest from Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: “Exchange of messages between Iranian and American sides continues based on the text of Iran’s 14-point resolution.” And more:
- Iran’s focus is on ending the war and fulfilling Iran’s clear demands
- The presence of the Pakistani Interior Minister is to facilitate the exchange of messages.
- Baqaei: We are exchanging messages with suspicion and good intentions
- Talking about ultimatums and deadlines regarding Iran is ridiculous.
- Iran also says US has to prove its goodwill and stop “piracy” against Iranian ships
Ghalibaf: US Seeking To ‘Start A New War’
Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war and still hopes the Islamic Republic will surrender:
“The enemy’s movements, both overt and clandestine, show that despite economic and political pressure, it has not abandoned its military objectives and is seeking to start a new war,” Ghalibaf said in an audio message carried by Iranian media.
“Close monitoring of the situation in the United States reinforces the possibility that they still hope for the surrender of the Iranian nation,” he adds.
Trump has given Iran ‘days’ – or also till the start of next week to come back to the table; however, on Wednesday he’s actually touting a ‘final’ deal draft is near, despite Iran still not budging on the nuclear issue.
END
LATE AFTERNOON:
Tense Trump-Netanyahu Call As US Presses Iran To ‘Sign The Document’ – But Israel Wants Military Greenlight
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 02:05 PM
Summary
- Axios: “Trump continues to say he thinks a deal can be reached, but that he’s ready to resume the war if it isn’t.”
- US Marines board Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman, as it was accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade.
- Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war
- Oil tumbles after Pakistan again touts final deal draft text imminent, followed by Trump claiming US in ‘final stages’ of peace talks with Iran, though Tehran hasn’t budged on nuclear issue.
- Iran’s IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours “in coordination” with Iranian authorities.
https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 35% · No 66%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Trump: ‘Sign the Document’ or Face War’s Resumption
Trump and Netanyahu had a reported tense phone call related to ongoing Iran talks, and a proposed peace deal on the table. Netanyahu is said to be seeking a greenlight for renewed military action against Tehran, at a moment the Iranians have not compromised on the nuclear issue.
Per fresh reporting in Axios: “Trump continues to say he thinks a deal can be reached, but that he’s ready to resume the war if it isn’t“:
- “The only question is do we go and finish it up or are they gonna be signing a document. Let’s see what happens,” he said on Wednesday at the Coast Guard Academy.
- Trump also said Netanyahu “will do whatever I want him to do” on Iran, though he also said they had a good relationship. The two leaders have had temporary disagreements on Iran before but have remained closely coordinated throughout the war.
- Iran has confirmed it’s reviewing an updated proposal, but has not yet shown any signs of flexibility.
The same report says of Israel’s position that “Netanyahu is highly skeptical about the negotiations and wants to resume the war to further degrade Iran’s military capabilities and weaken the regime by destroying its critical infrastructure.”
US Marines Board Iran-Flagged Tanker
The Pentagon has announced that US Marines have boarded another Iranian-flagged tanker, this time in the Gulf of Oman. It had been accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade, after which it was boarded.
But, as CENTCOM says, “American forces released the vessel after searching and directing the ship’s crew to alter course.” This as Iran’s IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours “in coordination” with Iranian authorities (per state news).
END
ISRAEL TBN.
IRAN
IRGC Says It Foiled US Arms Shipments To ‘Terror Groups’ Near Border With Iraqi Kurdistan
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 07:40 PM
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement on Monday that it foiled an attempt to smuggle a large shipment of US-made weapons and ammunition into the country.
“Counter-revolutionary terror groups based in north Iraq, acting on behalf of the US and Zionist regime, intended to transfer a large shipment of brand-new US weapons and ammunition into the country. They were targeted and struck in Baneh, Kurdistan Province. Large quantities of weapons and ammunition were discovered and confiscated,” the statement said.
The statement added that intelligence efforts are ongoing to identify and arrest all internal collaborators allegedly linked to the armed groups.
The IRGC Hamzeh Sayyed al-Shuhada Headquarters warned “all mercenary elements, their agents, and their leaders that any security-related action will be met with severe force, and … a regret inducing response.”
The announcement comes as Washington has been seeking to arm separatist Iranian Kurdish groups in order to destabilize the Islamic Republic. At the start of the war, reports said that US President Donald Trump was seeking to turn Kurdish militias into a “ground force” within Iran.
Kurdish groups opposed to the Islamic Republic denied last month US claims that Washington armed their fighters during the January 2026 unrest in Iran.
Last week, Trump slammed Iranian Kurds for “stealing” US weapons and failing to deliver them to “protesters” and dissidents who, according to Washington, were willing to fight against Iranian forces.
“The Kurds take, take, take,” the president told reporters, adding that they “kept” the weapons and “only fight hard when they get paid.”
Iranian Kurds were heavily involved in the 2022 armed riots, which broke out in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini. Former US national security advisor John Bolton openly admitted that year that weapons from the Iraqi Kurdistan region were being smuggled into Iran for separatists to use against government troops.
President Trump on being ‘disappointed’ in the Kurds…
Kurdish groups also participated in this year’s unrest in January, during which thousands of people were killed, including security forces, armed anti-government rioters, and civilians.
After the US-Israeli war erupted in February, Iraqi-based, Iranian Kurdish militias came under heavy missile and drone attacks – from both Tehran and its allies in the Iraqi resistance.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, May 11-18, 2026
LAPD Det. Mark Furman (C); actors Tom Kane, Dennis Rush, Donald Gibb; filmmaker Brian Lindstrom; B’way actor Russell Garrett; rockers Ike Willis, Dennis Locorriere; rock producer Jack Douglas; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerMay 20 |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES (108)
O.J. Simpson Detective Mark Fuhrman Dead at 74
May 18, 2026
Former LAPD detective Mark Fuhrman, who discovered the bloody glove in the O.J. Simpson murder case and later torpedoed the prosecution with his use of the n-word, is dead. Sources tell TMZ Mark died from an aggressive form of throat cancer, which he was diagnosed with last year. Mark had been hospitalized for about a week before he died. He had done some cancer treatment, but made the final decision to stop. He was 74.
Actor Tom Kane, the voice of Yoda in Star Wars, has died
May 18, 2026
American voice actor Tom Kane has died at the age of 64. The news of his death was announced by Galactic Productions. According to representatives, he died at a hospital in Kansas City [MO] due to complications following a stroke. Kane is best known as the voice of Master Yoda in the “Star Wars” universe.
Child Star Mourns Death of Fellow ‘Andy Griffith Show’ Actor and Close Friend
May 15, 2026
Former child star Keith Thibodeaux is mourning the loss of fellow actor Dennis Rush [above, sitting], his longtime friend and former co-star from The Andy Griffith Show. Thibodeaux, who famously played Little Ricky on I Love Lucy under the stage name Richard Keith, shared the news in an emotional Facebook post alongside a photo of the two actors together at a fan event. “I just got word that my old buddy Dennis Rush, a fine actor and a great friend, passed away,” Thibodeaux wrote. “What a shock.” He continued by remembering Rush’s connection to The Andy Griffith Show, where the two appeared together as part of Opie Taylor’s (Ron Howard) circle of childhood friends. Thibodeaux also revealed that he had recently prayed with Rush after learning of his leukemia diagnosis. “I’m just glad that I was able to pray with him last month at one of the festivals when he found out that he was diagnosed with leukemia,” he added. “Mayberry has lost a great citizen and a great friend!”
No age reported.
Revenge of the Nerds Star Donald Gibb’s Health Battle Revealed After His Death
May 13, 2026
More details surrounding Donald Gibb’s final days are coming to light. One day after the Revenge of the Nerds star’s family confirmed his death at the age of 71, his son Travis Gibb told TMZ that his dad was battling throat cancer and had suffered a heart attack before he died. However, despite Donald’s heart attack occurring in the weeks before his death, Travis attributed his cause of death to cancer. Travis previously told the outlet that Donald died at his home in Texas surrounded by family. Donald first rose to fame in 1984, playing in Revenge of the Nerds alongside Timothy Busfield and the late Robert Carradine. His tall stature and muscular physique quickly landed him more tough-guy roles, including 1987’s Revenge of the Nerds II: Nerds in Paradise and 1988’s Bloodsport with Jean-Claude Van Damme.
Love on the Spectrum star Pari Kim’s mother Esme dead at 61 after heartbreaking stage 4 cancer battle
May 14, 2026
Love on the Spectrum star Pari Kim has suffered a devastating tragedy after the loss of her beloved mom, Esme Banker-Kim. Pari, 24, was introduced on Season 3 [2025] of the hit Netflix series alongside her mom, who was battling Stage 4 breast cancer that had recently returned. Following a brave cancer battle, a Netflix source confirmed to The U.S. Sun that Esme has passed away at the age of 61.
Fox News Comic Kat Timpf’s Dad Dies ‘Very Unexpectedly’
May 13, 2026
Fox News contributor and comedian Kat Timpf is mourning the sudden death of her father, Daniel “Dad Timpf” Timpf. The television personality shared the news in an emotional Instagram post, revealing that her father died “very unexpectedly” on May 7 at age 69. Kat shared that her father was “seemingly strong” and “healthy” leading up to his sudden passing,
No cause of death reported.
Documentary Filmmaker Brian Lindstrom Dies at 65 After Battle With Rare Brain Disease
May 17, 2026
Portland, OR – The director who focused on those who “society puts an X through,” was diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy, his wife, ‘Wild’ author Cheryl Strayed, revealed. Lindstrom was diagnosed with what Strayed referred to as a “fatal illness” just two weeks prior to his death. Progressive supranuclear palsy is a frontotemporal disorder caused by damage to nerve cells in areas of the brain that control thinking and body movements. PSP has some symptoms similar to those of Parkinson’s disease and affecting walking and balance.
Russell Garrett, last artistic director of Foothills, remembered
May 12, 2026
Russell Garrett, an actor with Broadway credentials and a director with many regional credits who was the last artistic director of Foothills Theatre Company from late 2005 to 2009, died on April 18. Garrett, who was 66 and lived in Boston [MA], died unexpectedly, according to an obituary. Garrett was directing right up to the end and his last show at the Majestic Theater in West Springfield has been so popular its run has been extended.
No cause of death reported.
Broadway Theatre Pillar, Drag Queen Outfit Company Co-Founder From NY Dies Suddenly
May 12, 2026
Alex Bartlett, of Wappingers Falls [NY], died unexpectedly, according to a GoFundMe campaign launched Monday, May 11, to support his husband, Vincent Cuccia. More information about his death was not immediately available. Bartlett worked extensively in Broadway wardrobe departments, including serving as wardrobe supervisor for productions such as Heart of Rock and Roll, Left on Tenth, and Gutenberg! The Musical, according to his social media profiles. Outside the theater world, Bartlett was known as the designer and co-owner of Planet Pepper, a New York-based drag wardrobe and performance apparel company famous for its “Astrobooty” hip and butt padding designs popular in drag performance circles.
No age reported.
Ike Willis,Vocalist Best Known for Collaborations with Frank Zappa, was Seventy
May 18, 2026
Ike Willis has died. Best known for his long stint as a vocalist (and occasional guitarist and percussionist) in Frank Zappa’s band, Willis was seventy. Former Zappa bass guitarist Arthur Barrow reported that Willis, who was diagnosed with prostate cancer in 2021, died last night. Born Isaac Willis on November 12, 1955, in St. Louis, Missouri, Willis met Zappa when he was a student at St. Louis’s Washington University in the 1970s. Likely on October 2, 1977 at Zappa’s concert at Washington University’s Quadrangle, Willis volunteered to work as a roadie. He introduced himself to Zappa and offered his services as a vocalist. A short time later, he successfully auditioned for Zappa’s band in California and was part of almost every Zappa tour (and many recording projects) until 1988, when Zappa suddenly fired most of his band (including Willis) mid-tour due to complicated internecine conflicts that had developed. Willis joined Zappa’s band (which included Barrow at the time) for a tour that commenced in August 1978. For some reason, he suddenly left the tour on October 15, the day after a show at The University of Maryland at College Park, but he returned at the beginning of 1979. He sat out Zappa’s tours of 1981 and 1982 so he could be present for the birth and infancy of his children, but he returned in 1984 and was present for every remaining regular rock concert for the rest of Zappa’s too-short life and career.
Dr Hook singer Dennis Locorriere dies after ‘long and courageous battle’
May 16, 2026
Dennis Locorriere, the frontman of 1970s band Dr Hook, has died at 76 following a “long and courageous battle” with kidney disease, his management confirmed. Locorriere performed alongside Ray Sawyer, who died in 2019. The group, initially called Dr Hook & The Medicine Show until 1975, achieved widespread fame with tracks such as “Cover Of The Rolling Stone”, “Sylvia’s Mother”, and “When You’re In Love With A Beautiful Woman”.
Jack Douglas, Renowned John Lennon and Aerosmith Producer, Dead at 80
May 12, 2025
Legendary rock producer Jack Douglas has died at the age of 80. According to a statement from his family, he passed away peacefully on Monday night, May 11. Douglas’s daughter, Sarah, also confirmed her father’s death to Rolling Stone, adding he died from complications from lymphoma. With 40 gold and platinum records and several lifetime achievement awards to his name, Douglas has played an integral role in the creation of the most celebrated music ever crafted.
Researcher’s note – Jack Douglas was seen looking healthy in Liverpool, UK, during Beatleweek, in August 2019. In 2021 and 2022, Douglas was working in music studios, during a time when many required COVID “vaccinations”. The musical talent Douglas worked with included the Detroit Youth Choir, whose album Rockspell Douglas produced in 2022. The Detroit Youth Choir were part of Vice President Kamala Harris’ Vaccine [sic] Mobilization Event in July of 2021: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-the-vice-president-vaccine-mobilization-event-detroit-michigan
Grizzlies forward Brandon Clarke dies at age 29
May 12, 2026
Memphis Grizzlies forward Brandon Clarke has died at age 29. Clarke’s death was announced Tuesday by the Grizzlies and his agency, Priority Sports. A cause of death was not announced. The Grizzlies said in a statement that they “are heartbroken by the tragic loss” of Clarke. “Brandon was an outstanding teammate and an even better person whose impact on the organization and the greater Memphis community will not be forgotten,” the team said. Priority Sports said in a statement that it is “just impossible to put into words how much he’ll be missed.”
Update to our May 6 report:
Former NFL Player Josh Mauro’s Cause of Death Revealed After He Died at 35
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS COMMENTARIES
LARGE DRAWDOWN OF SPR: 10 MM BARRELS PER DAY
Oil Prices Extend Decline After The Largest Crude Inventory Drawdown In History, Cushing ‘Tank Bottoms’ Loom
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 10:38 AM
Oil futures are down bigly this morning following comments from President Trump that the war in Iran would be ended “very quickly,” but investors remained uncertain about the potential for de-escalation.
“We’re going to end that war very quickly. They want to make a deal so badly, they’re tired of – this should have happened for 47 years,” Trump told a group of Congress members at the White House’s annual congressional picnic on Tuesday.
“Somebody should have done something about it. And it’s going to happen, and it’s going to happen fast. And you’re going to see oil prices plummet,” the president added.
Oil’s declines were also reportedly driven by this optimism about a final deal draft peace agreement:
On Tuesday, two Chinese tankers carrying crude oil traversed the Strait of Hormuz.
Another, a South Korean vessel, was passing through it, according to a Reuters report. Jim Reid, of Deutsche Bank, noted that this marks “one of the busiest days since the closure.”
However, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also warned on Wednesday that any renewed strikes on Iran could expand the war beyond the region.
The IRGC also said it had not used all its capacities against the U.S. and Israel, while warning that their “devastating blows will crush” the adversaries, the IRGC said in a statement on its Sepah News website.
For now, all eyes are on the official inventory and supply data (and SPR) after yuuuge draws reported by API overnight…
API
- Crude -9.1mm (-3.4mm exp)
- Cushing -1.4mm
- Gasoline -5.8mm
- Distillates -1.0mm
DOE
- Crude -7.863mm (-6.0mm exp)
- Cushing -1.604mm
- Gasoline -1.548mm
- Distillates +372k
Crude stocks tumbled last week (biggest draw since Feb 13th) for the fourth week in a row. Gsoline inventories saw their 14th weekly drawdown in a row whil distillates saw another small build…
Source: Bloomberg
Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns continue to accelerate with 9.92mm barrels/day – a record – drained last week. That means over 10% of the SPR has been drained in the last few weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
Total US crude stocks including the SPR are at the lowest level since June 2025 with this week seeing the largest SPR + Commercial stock drawdown in history…
Gasoline stockpiles continued their steady decline last week, falling another 1.5 million barrels. Stocks are still at the lowest seasonal levels since 2014.
Cushing stocks are rapidly approaching ‘tank bottoms’ once again…
US Crude production dipped very modestly last week…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI (July 2026) suddenly plunged below $100 just ahead of the official data (on peace deal optimism) and extended the losses after the big draw…
Finally, though the closure of the Strait has already pushed oil prices up by more than half, analytics firm Woods Mackenzie said if the war is extended until the end of the year, oil prices could rise as high as US$200 per barrel, though a quick settlement could lower Brent prices to US$80 by year end.
“The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis,” said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie.
“The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth.”
The market is awaiting the start of the high-demand U.S. summer driving season, which begins with this weekend’s Memorial Day holiday.
It appears that American drivers will face the highest gas prices ever for Memorial Day…
…not great for Midterms/Approval ratings.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
BOLIVIA
Chaos Erupts In Bolivia As Socialists Unleash General Strikes And Riots
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 04:40 PM
Socialists in Bolivia, mobilized through the national labor union, highland farmer federations, and supporters of former left-wing President Evo Morales, have ignited social unrest over the U.S.-backed, market-oriented policy agenda of President Rodrigo Paz.
The turmoil comes as the Trump administration seeks to shift the Americas away from socialist regimes and closer to Washington’s pro-capitalist stance.
Demonstrators clashed with police in La Paz, attempted to breach government buildings, and set up barricades amid weeks of blockades that have disrupted supplies and driven up grocery prices.
Bloomberg:
- BANK BRANCHES IN LA PAZ, BOLIVIA SUSPEND OPERATIONS AMID UNREST
President Paz accused forces linked to Morales and drug traffickers of backing the demonstrations.
Paz’s election last year abruptly ended two decades of nation-killing socialist rule in the landlocked South American country. Voters, exhausted by economic turmoil, surging inflation, a severe foreign-currency crisis, and declining natural gas output, opted for political change.
The Socialist Labour Party in the U.K. stands in “solidarity” with the Bolivian people…
Meanwhile, Bolivia’s currency crisis has been a long time in the making under decades of state-heavy socialist rule.
By 2025, Bolivia was facing a severe dollar shortage, fuel lines, and a forty-year-high inflation. Socialism reached its endgame last year with President Paz’s election victory. Socialists squandered the nation’s inheritance.
Socialism has also reached its endgame in other countries, including:
- Argentina, 2023: Voters rejected the ruling Peronist government and elected libertarian Javier Milei amid a severe inflation and currency crisis.
- Chile, 2025: Conservative José Antonio Kast defeated the ruling left’s candidate, Jeannette Jara, marking a sharp rightward shift after the Boric era.
- As well as the US removal of socialist Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela.
Bolivia’s unrest by socialists attempting to shut down the economy should serve as a warning that socalist NGOs and unions in the US could attempt general strike in the US to derail the economy – we outlined that here.
END
SOUTH AFRICA
BOUND TO HAPPEN!!
South African Farming Crisis May Trigger Food Shortages Across The Continent
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 04:15 AM
For decades South Africa has operated as the breadbasket for half of the African continent, and the vast majority of that food was grown by white farmers (Boers and Afrikaners). In other words, the very survival of Africans has long been dependent on the hard labor of the white people they are taught to despise.
South Africa has around 142 race-based laws which largely discriminate against white citizens, especially when property, business and government office is involved. The Expropriation Act of 2024 allows the socialist government to confiscate any land of their choosing to “redress past discriminatory laws or practices” (land owned by white citizens). This is part of a project to “fulfill land reform goals” (transfer wealth and farming operations to black citizens).
The problem is, when land is seized or forced into sale to black owners, farming production reportedly collapses. That is to say, once the white farmers are gone, crop yields fail and the black owners often resell the land and leave. In other cases, the new owners allow the land to languish, using the homes for living but never cultivating the surrounding property.
Black South Africans own more farmland per capita than French, German and Spanish farmers combined, yet, starvation persists in the region. Excuses as to why this is happening persist, but the fact remains that if Africa wants steady food production, they will have to rely on experienced white Afrikaners to make it happen because no one else is going to do it.
Furthermore, the government’s failure to maintain basic infrastructure has forced local farmers to take on the costs in order to keep food production on track and the roads ready for freight.
The pressure from government projects for “reparations” as well as the constant threat of violence from militant race communists targeting white farmers has made the job difficult. Now, shortages of diesel and fertilizers caused by the Iran War are creating a perfect storm of circumstances which may cause a food crisis going into 2027. If the shortages are not rectified, half of the African continent will be throttled by a lack domestic food supplies.
The war is, apparently, the straw that’s breaking the camel’s back. After years of the South African government sabotaging its most productive citizens and replacing them with less useful farmers, it was only a matter of time before a Black Swan event would lead to collapse.
Iran’s refusal to allow safe passage of tankers from countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is, interestingly, hurting BRICS nations far more than it is hurting the US or the west. Around 25% of South Africa’s oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. South Africa also imports around 80% of its fertilizer supplies.
The US blockade is only targeted at ships coming from Iranian ports with Iranian oil. All other ships are allowed to pass.
For now, the region is relatively safe from food shortages due to an unusually solid harvest in 2025, but 2027 looms and predictions are up in the air as to what will happen. Once a planting season has passed, there is no way to make up the loss. Foreign imports of food would be the obvious solution, but it’s a costly one. Meaning, price inflation is likely for most of Africa in 2027 and government rationing is a possibility.
The end result will undoubtedly be blamed on the closure of the Hormuz, but South Africa’s progressive policies set the stage and created the house of cards that is Africa’s food supply chain. They are completely unprepared for any significant supply shocks, and the result could be disastrous.
END
CUBA/USA
Trump Admin Announces Criminal Charges Against Former Cuba President Raul Castro
\
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 01:11 PM
Update (1300ET): As we wrote earlier in anticipation, the US sought to unseal an indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro, sharply escalating a standoff with Havana as the Trump administration attempts to force change on the island after nearly seven decades of communist rule.
The charges are related to the shooting of two humanitarian planes in 1996.
The Department of Justice asked to unseal the indictment against Castro and five other people in a filing in federal court in Florida on Wednesday.
The indictment charges Castro with seven counts including conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, destruction of aircraft and murder for each of the four passengers aboard the planes being flown by Brothers to the Rescue, a group that conducted rescue missions for Cuban exiles who sought to flee the country.
For 30 years, Cuban exiles in America and their representatives in Congress such Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., pressured the DOJ to bring charges against the 94-year-old Ruz, his late brother Fidel, and others in connection with the Cuban MiG fighter jets shooting down the BTTR civilian planes when they were outside Cuban airspace and flying back toward Florida.
A number of Republican members of Congress on Wednesday morning held a press conference condemning the Communist Cuban regime and Ruz and saying they expected him to be charged. The indictment against Ruz was unsealed later in the day.
* * *
As American Greatness detailed earlier, the Trump administration is preparing to escalate pressure on Cuba’s communist regime by pursuing criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of civilian aircraft operated by a Miami-based exile group.
According to reports, the charges are expected to be announced Wednesday and would center on the incident in which Cuban fighter jets destroyed two planes flown by Brothers to the Rescue, killing all four men aboard.
The US Department of Justice is expected to make the announcement in conjunction with a ceremony hosted by the US Attorney’s Office in Miami honoring the victims of the attack.
The indictment would mark a major escalation in President Donald Trump’s campaign against the Cuban regime, which has remained in power since Fidel Castro’s communist revolution in 1959.
Raúl Castro, now 94, served as Cuba’s defense minister at the time of the attack and later succeeded his brother, Fidel Castro, as president.
The two planes belonged to Brothers to the Rescue, an organization formed by Cuban exiles in Miami that searched for refugees attempting to flee the island across the Florida Straits. Cuban authorities claimed the aircraft violated Cuban airspace and justified the attack as a defensive action.
The United States condemned the shootdown at the time and imposed sanctions on Havana, but previous administrations stopped short of criminally charging either Castro brother.
An international aviation investigation later concluded the planes were destroyed over international waters.
The expected indictment comes as the Trump administration intensifies its pressure campaign against Cuba’s socialist government. The administration has tightened sanctions and threatened penalties against countries supplying fuel to the island, worsening economic conditions and contributing to severe power shortages across Cuba.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez recently struck a defiant tone amid growing tensions with Washington.
“Despite the embargo, sanctions and threats of the use of force, Cuba continues on a path of sovereignty towards its socialist development,” Rodríguez said earlier this month.
The administration’s expected legal action against Castro mirrors previous moves against other anti-American socialist regimes in Latin America. Earlier this year, former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was captured following a US military raid after being indicted on drug trafficking charges.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1593 DOWN 0.0014
USA/ YEN 159.03 DOWN 0.025 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3387 DOWN 0.0008 OR 8 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3766 UP 0.0017 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 17 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 7.35 PTS OR 0.18%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 146.73 PTS OR 0.57%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.56%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 146.73 PTS OR 0.57%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.35 OR 0.18%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.56%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 808.59 PTS OR 1.34%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4479.80
silver:$75.37
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.60 PLUS 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD.
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 71.26 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 6 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.0490 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.725 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.704 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.351 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY MORNING: 99.33 UP 23 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.522% DOWN 6 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.787% DOWN 3 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.114 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.577 DOWN 5 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.906 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.1516 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1593 DOWN 0.0014 OR 14 basis points
USA/Japan: 159.05 DOWN 0.010 OR YEN IS UP 1 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.1516 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.706 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar DOWN 12 BASIS pts to 1.3762
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP TO 6.8045// ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.8090
TURKISH LIRA: 45.60 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.661.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.168 DOWN 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.108 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4492.30
SILVER AT 10;00: 75.08
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 101.79 PTS OR 0.89%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 336.89 OR 1.38%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 135.66 PTS PTS PTS OR 1.29%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 381.60 PTS OR 0.48 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 826.77 PTS OR 1.77%
WTI Oil price 101.54 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 108.65 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 71.51 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 31 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.672 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.316 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1632 UP 0.0026 OR 26 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3446 UP 0.0051 OR 51 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.9850 DOWN 14 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.699 DOWN 10 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.763 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 4.062 DOWN 9 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 158.82 DOWN 0.223 OR YEN UP 22 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3745 DOWN 0.0004 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 4 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 98.19
Brent OIL: 104,92
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 10 BASIS pts to 4.573
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 7 PTS to 5.114%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.040 DOWN 8 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.580 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.228 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.00 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.59 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 71.51 DOWN 0 AND 31/100 roubles //
GOLD $4546.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 75.99 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 645.47 OR 1.31%
NASDAQ 100 UP 478.85 PTS OR 1.66%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.41 DOWN 0.65 PTS OR 3.60%
GLD: $ 417.38 UP 5.88 PTS OR 1.43%
SLV/ $68.74 PTS UP 1.83 OR OR 2.24%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 448.84 PTS 1.34%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Renewed Peace-Deal Optimism Sparks Oil, Dollar, & Bond Yield Plunge; Gold & Stocks Soar
Say whatever you want about President Trump, but admit he’s really good at jawboning the oil market. Bigly good at it…”
WRAP UP
Stocks gain and crude falls on end of war hopes – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 04:39 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: US President Trump says US is in the final stages of talks with Iran; Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text; Hawkish FOMC Minutes; EIA crude stocks draw more than expected; Fed’s Paulson says inflation is too high and rate cuts may only happen after inflation is controlled; Softer-than-expected UK CPI; Average US 20yr bond auction; TGT CEO maintains cautious outlook; Samsung Electronics labour union postpones strike; OpenAI reportedly aiming to IPO as early as September.
- COMING UP: Data: Global S&P PMIs Flash (May), Japanese Trade Balance (Apr), Australian Employment Report (Apr), US Initial Jobless Claims (May/16), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (May). Events: Banxico Minutes (May). Speakers: BoJ’s Koeda; BoE’s Taylor, Bailey; ECB’s Elderson; Fed’s Barkin. Supply: Spain, France, the UK. Earnings: Walmart, Deere.
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MARKET WRAP
US stocks closed higher on Wednesday as markets grew increasingly optimistic that the Middle East conflict may be approaching its final stages. President Trump said talks with Iran are in their final stages, while Al Hadath reported that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce a final draft agreement, with the next round of negotiations expected to take place in Islamabad after the Hajj season (25th–30th May).
Oil prices extended losses following the headlines, with WTI and Brent both falling by around USD 6/bbl. The decline in crude supported Treasuries and weighed on the Dollar against major peers.
Energy was the worst-performing sector amid the sharp downside in oil, while Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Materials outperformed. Airlines were among the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 as lower fuel costs boosted sentiment (JETS +6.6%). Semiconductor (SMH +3.8%, SOXX +4.7%) and memory names (DRAM +3.5%) rallied ahead of Nvidia earnings, with many sell-side firms expecting a beat-and-raise quarter.
Elsewhere, the FOMC Minutes leaned hawkish, with the majority viewing hikes as likely warranted should inflation remain persistent, although markets largely looked through the release. In supply, the US 20-year bond auction was broadly average and generated little market reaction.
In FX, Antipodes outperformed while the Dollar lagged alongside lower oil prices and firmer Treasuries. Sterling also strengthened despite softer-than-expected UK CPI data as it benefitted from the risk environment and Dollar weakness. Precious metals benefited from the weaker Dollar backdrop.
Looking ahead, focus remains firmly on Iran after reports suggested Tehran is reviewing a text sent by the US, following Iran’s own 14-point proposal delivered three days ago.
US
FOMC MINUTES: The April FOMC Minutes leaned notably hawkish, although much of the tone was already signalled by recent Fed commentary and Powell’s latest press conference. The key takeaway was the growing support within the Committee for shifting away from an easing bias and the increasing willingness among officials to consider further tightening if inflation remains persistent. A majority of participants said additional policy firming would likely become appropriate should inflation continue to run above the Fed’s 2% target, while many participants said they would have preferred removing the easing bias language from the statement altogether. Policymakers also noted that elevated inflation and uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict could require rates to remain restrictive for longer than previously anticipated. Only several suggested it would likely be appropriate to lower rates once there are clear indications that disinflation is firmly back on track or if solid signs emerge of greater labour market weakness. Regarding inflation, participants warned that sustained high energy prices combined with tariffs could risk broader inflation pressures becoming embedded, although most still viewed longer-term inflation expectations as stable. On the labour market, most officials viewed conditions as stabilising, citing unemployment, hiring and layoff data, although some noted signs of underlying softness. Overall, the Minutes reinforced the Fed’s growing focus on upside inflation risks over downside labour market concerns.
FED’S PAULSON (2026 VOTER, DOVISH): inflation remains too high, and that rate cuts are likely only appropriate once inflation is brought back under control, while reiterating that current policy is in an appropriate place. She added that it is healthy for markets to consider the possibility of an extended hold or even further hikes if inflation risks persist. Elsewhere, Paulson described the labour market as stable while noting consumption is slowing but remains resilient. The Philadelphia Fed President also warned that hikes may need to be considered if growth rises above potential or additional inflation risks emerge, while stressing that risks to both inflation and the broader outlook remain “super-elevated”.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLED 22+ TICKS HIGHER AT 109-13
T-notes were firmer on Wednesday, with yields lower across the curve as oil prices tumbled. At settlement, 2-year -7.8bps at 4.044%, 3-year -9.3bps at 4.111%, 5-year -10.2bps at 4.226%, 7-year -10.5bps at 4.392%, 10-year -9.9bps at 4.568%, 20-year -8.1bps at 5.120%, 30-year -7.2bps at 5.111%.
THE DAY: The decline in oil prices and, in turn, rise in yields continued to be driven by geopolitical headlines. After some of the more pessimistic rhetoric yesterday following the WSJ reporting, sentiment reversed through Wednesday’s session.
Reports suggested the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce a finalised draft agreement between the US and Iran, with work underway on the remaining details.
President Trump later said the two sides are in the final stages of negotiations, noting Iran wants to make a deal, although he reiterated his usual caveats that the US “may have to hit Iran harder, maybe not”.
Nonetheless, some press reports suggested gaps between the two sides still remain, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated despite the improvement in sentiment.
Elsewhere, there was no major US data release, although the FOMC Minutes leaned hawkish while the 20-year bond auction was broadly average (more below). The Minutes revealed that “many” policymakers would have preferred to remove the easing bias from the statement, while the “majority” viewed hikes as likely warranted should inflation remain persistent. Only several participants said it would likely become appropriate to lower rates if clearer signs emerge that disinflation is resuming or if the labour market weakens materially.
Despite the hawkish tone within the Minutes, markets saw little reaction as geopolitics and oil prices continued to dominate Treasury trade. Powell had also already alluded to much of the Committee’s thinking during his post-meeting press conference.
SUPPLY
Notes
- US sold USD 16bln of 20-year bonds
- US to sell USD 19bln of 10-year TIPS on 21st May; to settle May 29th
Bills
- US sold 17-wk bills at high-rate 3.590%, B/C 3.34x
- US to sell USD 95bln of 8-week bills and USD 100bln of 4-week bills on May 21st;
- US to sell USD 25bln 27-day cash management bills on May 21st; to settle May 22nd
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Pricing: Dec 21.4bps (prev. 16.3bps)
- EFFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 119bln (prev. USD 118bln) on May 19th
- SOFR at 3.51% (prev. 3.53%), volumes at USD 3.111tln (prev. USD 3.159tln) on May 19th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 24.87bln (prev. 12.91bln) across 16 counterparties (prev. 22) on May 20th
- NY Fed T-Bill Purchases (1-4 month): Accepts USD 6.58bln of USD 41.18bln offered; Offer-to-cover 6.26x
CRUDE
WTI (N6) SETTLED USD 5.89 LOWER AT USD 98.26/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLED USD 6.26 LOWER AT USD 105.02/BBL
The crude complex tumbled on Wednesday, amid a couple of constructive US/Iran remarks. Firstly, and starting the tumble lower, was Al Hadath reporting that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text, and the next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after the Hajj season (25-30th May), and sources added work is underway in earnest to put the finishing touches on the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran. Following this, and aiding the downside even further, was US President Trump stating the US is in the final stages of talks with Iran, and will see what happens. As such, these reports saw WTI and Brent tumble, and hit lows of USD 96.94/bbl and 103.24/bbl, respectively, with a focus on any further remarks. Prior to these remarks, crude already traded on a softer footing, with price action edging lower amid a lack of fresh catalysts. Shortly ahead of settlement, a source close to the negotiating team said that after sending Iran’s 14-point text three days ago, the Americans have once again given Iran a text through a Pakistani mediator, which Iran is currently still reviewing, Tasnim reported.
In the weekly EIA data, crude saw a much greater draw than expected, albeit not as deep as the private inventory numbers last night. Distillates saw a surprise build, and gasoline a smaller-than-anticipated draw.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +1.08% at 7,433, NDX +1.66% at 29,298, DJI +1.31% at 50,014, RUT +2.56% at 2,817
SECTORS: Consumer Discretionary +2.50%, Technology +1.87%, Materials +1.39%, Industrials +1.20%, Real Estate +1.15%, Financials +1.07%, Utilities +0.40%, Communication Services +0.16%, Health -0.07%, Consumer Staples -0.97%, Energy -2.59%
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +2.09% at 5,975, Dax 40 +1.36% at 24,732, FTSE 100 +0.99% at 10,432, CAC 40 +1.70% at 8,117, FTSE MIB +1.71% at 49,182, IBEX 35 +2.04% at 18,031, PSI +0.96% at 9,248, SMI +0.39% at 13,417, AEX +1.46% at 1,034
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Samsung Electronics’ labour union has postponed strikes, union to hold a vote on a tentative pay plan. Vote to take place between the 23rd and 28th of May.
- Micron (MU) at a conference said its financial outlook has strengthened since last earnings call & on track for another substantial record FCF in Q3.
- Nvidia (NVDA): Earnings AMC; China last week banned NVDA RTX 5090D V2 imports.
- Roblox (RBLX): Authorised share buyback of up to $3bln.
- Toll Brothers (TOL): Profit & rev. beat.
- Lowe’s (LOW): Midpoint FY guidance light.
- Analog Devices (ADI): Confirmed that it has agreed to acquire Empower Semiconductor for $1.5bln in cash; note, strong Q metrics & guidance.
- TJX Companies (TJX): EPS, rev. & comp. sales topped.
- Etsy (ETSY): Upgraded at Arete to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’.
- Cigna (CI): Downgraded at Deutsche Bank to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’.
- Target (TGT): Solid Q report, but tone of comments in conference call was cautious.
- ASML (ASML) CEO sees tight supply in booming chip market as AI demand soars, according to Reuters.
- OpenAI reportedly preparing to file for an IPO very soon, according to WSJ citing sources; FT reports with with a potential valuation of over USD 1tln.
- Meta (META) CEO told employees he does not expect more company wide-layoffs this year, via internal memo.
FX
USD was broadly weaker against G10 peers following a drop in oil prices on a couple of developments. Trump said the US is in the final stages of talks with Iran, and Al Hadath reported that the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce the achievement of the final draft of the agreement text. Oil prices settled around USD 6/bbl lower, allowing US Treasuries to erase losses seen on Tuesday, acting as a drag on USD. Elsewhere, the FOMC Minutes had a hawkish element, yet a fleeting impact on the USD. The two main takeaways were that many policymakers preferred to remove the easing bias from the policy statement (some non-voters also dissented), and the majority of participants saw a hike likely warranted if inflation persists. Next up is the AI theme, as to whether Nvidia earnings confirm the strong capex forecasts in 2026.
Antipodes outperformed as risk sentiment shifted towards optimism on hopes of a US-Iran resolution. CAD and NOK lagged their peers on strength against the US as the slump in oil prices pressured growth prospects.
GBP was firmer on the day as lower energy prices and hopes of continued diplomacy regarding the Middle East offset the lower-than-expected UK CPI reading for April. CPI slowed to 2.8% from 3.3% in March and below the consensus of 3.0%. ONS said, “The annual cost of both raw materials and goods leaving factories continued to rise, driven again by higher crude oil and petrol prices.” Cable erased weakness seen on Tuesday, reaching a new WTD high of 1.3464.
USA DATA RELEASE//FOMC
Warsh Faces Uphill Battle As FOMC Minutes Show Deeply-Divided Fed Against Easing Bias
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 02:05 PM
Tl;dr: FOMC Minutes confirm a deeply-divided Fed with a hawkish bias as “majority” saw hike likely warranted, “many” preferred removing easing bias.
* * *
Since the last FOMC meeting (Powell’s last), on April 29th, stocks and the dollar are up, bonds and gold are down and oil has swung violently in between…
Source: Bloomberg
Expectations for Fed action this year has surged hawkishly from a 20% chance of a single rate-cut to an almost 100% chance of a single rate-hike this week (before today’s decline)…
Source: Bloomberg
And that hawkish shift has occurred as US macro data has dramatically surprised to the upside (with both growth and inflation data higher than expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s FOMC minutes will be closely watched for further details surrounding the increasingly hawkish split within the Committee following the April meeting.
With three voters dissenting against retaining the easing bias – and Fedʼs Collins later suggesting she would have supported removing it too – markets will look to see how broad support was for removing the easing bias, particularly after Powell said more officials now view a hike just as likely as a cut.
So what did the Minutes show…?
Main headlines from the Minutes:
- *FED: VAST MAJORITY SAID INFLATION COULD STAY ELEVATED LONGER
- *FED: OFFICIALS SAID INFLATION, WAR COULD MEAN LONGER RATE HOLD
- *FED: OFFICIALS EXPECTED JOB MARKET TO STAY STABLE IN NEAR TERM
- *FED: MANY PREFERRED REMOVING EASING BIAS FROM STATEMENT
- *FED: MAJORITY SAW HIKE LIKELY WARRANTED IF INFLATION PERSISTS
- *FED: SEVERAL SAW RATE CUTS THIS YEAR IF INFLATION DISSIPATES
Inflation fears…
With regard to the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally judged that the continued elevated inflation readings together with uncertainty related to the duration and economic implications of the Middle East conflict could necessitate maintaining the current policy stance for longer than previously anticipated.
Several participants highlighted that it would likely be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate once there are clear indications that disinflation is firmly back on track or if solid signs emerge of greater weakness in the labor market.
A majority of participants highlighted, however, that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent.
To address this possibility, many participants indicated that they would have preferred removing the language from the postmeeting statement that suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions.
Labor optimism…
Another factor supporting a more hawkish Fed outlook: improving signals from the labor market.
At the Fed’s March meeting, officials’ most recent data in hand was the ugly February jobs report.
At the time, many officials were worried that “labor market conditions appeared vulnerable to adverse shocks,” per the March minutes.
But by their April meeting, Fed officials had their hands on the more upbeat March report, and most took the numbers as evidence of stabilization, according to the newly released April minutes.
After the April Fed meeting, the strong April jobs report released earlier this month added further evidence that the labor market may be finding its footing.
More hawkish-er…
The minutes from the Fed’s April meeting show that a growing group of officials raised hawkish concerns as the Iran conflict lifted inflation.
At the central bank’s previous meeting in March, a group of “some” participants had said there was a strong case for the Fed to give balanced guidance that its next move could be either a hike or cut, leaning against the status quo that an eventual cut was in the cards.
In April, this group grew to include “many” officials who would have preferred more neutral language in the policy statement.
Staff Economic Outlook
The staffs outlook for economic activity was slightly stronger than the one prepared for the March meeting.
Not too much new that we didn’t get from the presser (or post-presser comments) but now it’s confirmed that The Fed is deeply divided with the bottom line being that the dynamic disclosed from these Minutes may create challenges for incoming Chair Warsh, whose first meeting will be in June.
While Warsh has advocated lower rates, he may find limited support for a more dovish stance within the current Committee.
Additionally, Warsh has advocated for a tighter balance sheet policy. Last week, Fed Governor Barr argued that easing bank liquidity requirements to shrink the Fedʼs balance sheet would undermine financial stability and increase the Fedʼs market footprint. Barr said the 2023 banking stresses suggest liquidity requirements should rise, not fall. As such, traders will also watch the minutes for any discussion surrounding future balance sheet strategy alongside the debate over the easing bias.
On a side-note, when President Trump was asked today about the fact that the markets are now pricing in rate-hikes (and whether he thinks Warsh will deliver the lower rates that Trump has long demanded), his remarks were surprisingly placid.
“I’m going to let him do what he wants to do,” Trump said.
“He’s a very talented guy, he’s going to be fine, he’s going to do a good job.”
Trump is seemingly giving Warsh some room to maneuver, implying that he may not immediately get the Powell treatment even if Warsh delivers a hawkish monetary policy message in his early months in office.
Read the full Minutes below
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
MASSIE OUT.. TRUMP WINS AGAIN
Massie Out: Gallrein Wins Kentucky Republican Primary
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 – 04:30 PM
Update (2000ET): In one of the most expensive primaries on record (with more than $32 million spent on political ads, according to the firm AdImpact), Former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein has won the Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District over Rep. Thomas Massie, NBC News projects, notching another win for President Trump in his push to eliminate political rivals and roadblocks within his own party.
With 58% of the vote counted, Gallrein had about 54% to Massie’s 46%, DDHQ reported.
Gallrein, 68, is a relative newcomer to politics. He ran a low-key campaign by refusing to debate Massie and generally avoiding the press. His chief selling points were his military service, his endorsement by Trump and his promise to be a reliable vote for the president’s policies.
Massie’s defeat follows other losses this month by Republican state lawmakers in Indiana who had resisted a Trump-backed congressional redistricting push. Five challengers endorsed by Trump defeated sitting state senators in their primaries.
Elsewhere:
- Georgia: Early counts show Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (Trump-endorsed) and businessman Rick Jackson neck-and-neck in the GOP gubernatorial primary (likely runoff). On the Democratic side, Keisha Lance Bottoms leads strongly. In the GOP Senate primary to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff, Rep. Mike Collins appears to be in the driver’s seat.
- Alabama, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho: Mostly early returns or no major surprises yet. Expect incumbents or clear frontrunners (e.g., Tommy Tuberville in AL Gov, Christine Drazan in OR GOP Gov) to advance. Pennsylvania’s congressional primaries and other down-ballot races are developing but less nationally explosive so far.
So far tonight has demonstrated continued Trump influence in GOP primaries, particularly the high-stakes ousting of Massie after years of friction over spending, foreign policy, and party loyalty. The safely Republican nature of KY-04 means Gallrein is now heavily favored for November.
* * *
Today, voters in Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Idaho head to the polls for several primary elections that will affect key gubernatorial, House, Senate, and statewide contests ahead of the November midterms.
The Epoch Times‘ Jackson Richman gives us the lay of the land (emphasis, charts, clips and any snark – ours…);
Kentucky
There are a few competitive races in the Bluegrass State.
The most closely watched race is in the state’s Fourth Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) faces retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. President Donald Trump endorsed Gallrein after criticizing Massie over several votes he took in Congress. Trump has had success backing primary challengers and knocking off incumbents in several primary elections, including in Indiana and Louisiana.
The district includes the Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati, part of northern Kentucky, and the outskirts of Louisville, consisting of coal towns and rural villages in the Appalachian foothills.
It has become the most expensive House primary in history.
Federal Election Commission data, which include campaign ad spending and other costs, show that candidate campaigns and political parties have spent an estimated $35 million on the race, according to Quiver Quantitative. And according to AdImpact, more than $25 million has been spent on digital, radio, and television ads.
Massie’s campaign has spent $5.8 million, while Gallrein’s has dished out $2.6 million – and yet…https://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=will-thomas-massie-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ky-04&height=300Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Yes 44% · No 56%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
In terms of outside spending, independent political groups have spent more than $10.1 million supporting Massie.
Massie’s campaign has said it has mainly relied on grassroots fundraising. He has received support from the Kentucky First PAC, backed by Pennsylvania billionaire and major TikTok investor Jeff Yass, which contributed $1 million in support, and the Make Liberty Win PAC, which poured in $518,205.
Super PACs have favored Gallrein, contributing more than $16.4 million in his support.
The Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund poured in another $470,000 of spending against Massie over the weekend, according to Quiver Quantitative.
Given the district’s strong Republican lean, the GOP nominee is expected to be favored in the general election.
Meanwhile, the race to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is on as Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, and nine other candidates run in the GOP primary. Trump has endorsed Barr.
Former state Rep. Charles Booker and Amy McGrath, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2020, as well as five other candidates are running in the Democratic primary.
Polls project a Barr-Booker matchup.
end
Seems that AI is causing the axing of many engineers and workers
(zerohedge)
Meta Axes 8,000 Workers As Zuckerberg Admits AI Is Watching, Replacing Labor
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 08:05 AM
Welcome to another day of corporate America hemorrhaging engineers and other white-collar workers with insurmountable student debt as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered in history as the great “white-collar purge,” and the response will be continued hatred of data centers.
We’ve been covering for weeks that today is D-Day for Meta Platforms employees, who have finally learned their employment fate at the company that owns Facebook and Instagram.
Bloomberg reports that the new round of layoffs affects roughly 8,000 roles globally, with engineering and product teams expected to be at the center of the cuts as CEO Mark Zuckerberg reduces labor in favor of GPUs.
This latest round of cuts is expected to hit Meta’s engineering and product teams in particular, and additional layoffs could come later in the year, said people familiar with the company’s plans, who asked not to be named as the information is not public. -BBG
The layoffs follow Meta’s reassignment of about 7,000 employees into newly created AI-focused teams on Monday.
The X account, Official Layoff, posted leaked audio of an all-hands emergency at Meta earlier this week, in which Zuck told employees their devices are being tracked to train AI models. In other words, those workers are training chatbots to eventually render them obsolete.
Official Layoff added more color about Monday’s meeting:
LEAKED AUDIO FROM META ALL-HANDS AHEAD OF LAYOFFS TOMORROW
Mark Zuckerberg, in his own words, told Meta employees their devices are being tracked to train AI models.
His reasoning? Meta employees are smarter than the contract workers the rest of the industry uses for data labeling. So instead of hiring outside help, Meta is turning its own workforce into training data.
“The average intelligence of the people who are at this company is significantly higher than the average set of people that you can get to do tasks if you’re working through these contractors.”
He wants the AI to learn how “really smart people use computers” by watching employees work. He says the content is “stripped out” and none of it is used for surveillance or performance tracking.
Then he admitted the rollout was botched but said Meta intentionally kept employees in the dark because leaking competitive AI strategy would help rivals.
“It is not strategically in your interest for us to communicate everything in all the detail that we normally would on this.”
Translation: We’re watching you, we told you as little as possible, and we did it on purpose.
AI is replacing the contractor. Then the employee trains the AI. Then the AI replaces the employee.
This story and this company keeps getting weirder.
LEAKED AUDIO: In an all-hands meeting on April 30, Mark Zuckerberg tells employees that he’s training AI on them ahead of mass layoffs.
“The AI models learn from watching really smart people do things… The average intelligence of the people who are at this company is significantly higher than the average set of people that you can get to do tasks.
So if we’re trying to teach the models coding, for example, then having people internally build tools or solve tasks that help teach the model how to code, we think is going to dramatically increase our model’s coding ability faster than what others in the industry have the capability to do, who don’t have thousands and thousands of extremely strong engineers at their company.”
END
AND NOW INUIT
AI Purge Accelerates: Intuit Reportedly Slashing 17% Of Workforce
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 – 09:35 AM
Intuit, the company that owns TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp, is reportedly preparing to lay off a staggering 17% of its workforce according to Reuters, which cites an internal memo.
Details are scant at the moment regarding the reason for the layoffs, but CEO Sasan Goodarzi sent an email to staff earlier in the day, saying that reducing complexity and simplifying the structure would help it deliver better products, to streamline operations and sharpen focus on its key bets including its AI efforts.
The company has signed multi-year deals with AI startups Anthropic and OpenAI to integrate their AI models into its software and add Intuit’s personalized tax, finance, accounting and marketing capabilities into Claude and ChatGPT.
Bloomberg data shows Intuit’s total workforce was around 18,200 in mid-2025. If those figures are still accurate, the layoffs could affect upwards of 3,000 employees.
As of Tuesday’s close, Intuit shares were down nearly 40% on the year amid AI fears disrupting the software stocks.
Shares are down 2% in premarket trading.
Analysts are mostly bullish…
Related:
The last day for impacted staff at Intuit in the United States will be July 31 and they will receive 16 weeks of base pay and two extra weeks for every year at Intuit as part of the severance package, the memo on Wednesday showed.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 20, 2025 Issue 7746 | Independent View of the News |
| The US 2-year note hit 4.135%; the 30- year hit 5.195%; and the 10-year hit 4.684% 10:24 ET. This is the highest 30-year yield since 2007. USMs fell as much as 26/32 (10:24 ET). @Barchart: Japan’s 10-year yield is now above 2.8% for the first time since 1997. https://x.com/Barchart/status/2056760253379715253 Reuters: Earlier on Tuesday, Iranian state media said Tehran’s latest peace proposal involves ending hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon, the exit of U.S. forces from areas close to Iran, and reparations for destruction caused by the U.S.-Israeli war. In Tehran’s first comments on the proposal, Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran also sought the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen funds and an end to the U.S. marine blockade on the country, according to IRNA news agency. The terms as described in the Iranian reports appeared little changed from Iran’s previous offer, which Trump rejected last week as “garbage”… https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-peace-proposal-includes-reparations-war-damage-us-troop-withdrawal-2026-05-19/ Trump Monday morning on the Iran war: “Everyone tells me it’s unpopular, but I think it’s very popular.” Trump: May Have to Give Iran Another Big Hit, Not Sure Yet – BBG 10:39 ET Trump on Time for Iran: 2-3 Days, Maybe Til Early Next Week – BBG 10:44 ET Trump: We Were an Hour Away from Striking Iran – Ynet News 10:48 ET @FoxNews: “We’re going to end that war very quickly. They want to make a deal so badly. They’re tired of this.” President Trump predicts a deal to end the war with Iran is going to happen “fast” — and that oil prices will plummet when the agreement is reached. https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2056887467744117072 (@NewsPolitics: Do we have to say Beetlejuice 3 times or something to get out of this repeating loop?) W Bush Press Sec @AriFleischer: If the reason the military campaign against Iran did not resume today is because the Gulf states feared they would come under Iranian attack, then the war is over, and Iran won it. If the Gulf states are so fearful that they capitulate and won’t support taking out the aggressor, then Iran has the leverage and holds the cards, now and in the future. Iran started this war. It’s time to finish the job and bring it to a successful end. In early trading on Tuesday, equities declined smartly due to the increase in rates. Gold and silver declined sharply; gasoline fell over five cents; June WTI Oil increased a few cents. Food commodities were mixed. Fangs and semiconductors led the equity decline – with NVDA’s results due on Wednesday. The SOX Index (Semiconductors) was -3.6% by 10:17 ET. Why were traders dumping semiconductors stocks one day before NVIDIA’s results were due? ESMs vacillated between small losses and modest gains until they broke lower near 21:00 ET. After hitting a low of 7391.50 at 122 ET ESMs rallied to 7433.00 at 3:48 ET. A steady decline, due to higher interest rates, took ESMs to a daily low of 7354.25 (-71.50) at 10:48 ET. After a 24-handle manipulation for the 11:30 ET European close, ESMs retreat and range traded until they broke higher at 12:22 ET. After jumping to 7415.25 at 13:24 ET, ESMs rolled over and eventually sank to 7380.00 at 14:59 ET. The last-hour rally/manipulation took ESMs to 7400.50 at 15:15 ET. With Nvidia turning negative after an afternoon rally, ESMs headed south and fell to 7365.00 at 15:55 ET. The illegal late manipulation forced ESMs to 7379.50 at 15:59 ET. @DannyDayan5: I look at the 10y/1m OIS rate as the market’s estimate of neutral. We are back to where it was prior to the GFC. Post GFC, this rate did fall to 1-2% range, which makes perfect sense. It is saying they are 100 bps below neutral, and with inflation raging they need to get tight. https://x.com/DannyDayan5/status/2056771110851559751 @ThierryBorgeat: How expensive is the S&P 500 right now? Four ways to count. – Price/Sales: 3.5x (all-time high, higher than 2000) – Price/Book: 5.5x (all-time high) – Forward P/E: 26x (at the 2000 dotcom peak) – Dividend Yield: 1% (near a record low) https://x.com/ThierryBorgeat/status/2056695495767019815 Positive aspects of previous session Oil and gasoline fell sharply on reports that NATO is considering protecting ships in Hormuz. The DJTA rallied modestly. Negative aspects of previous session Bonds and note yields continue to move higher. Fangs and AI-related (semiconductor) issues got hammered in the morning. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who is selling semiconductors ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, and why? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7360.87 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7395.32 (1:23 ET); 7333.68 (10:48 ET) NYT: Early War Goal Was to Install Hard Line Former President as Iran’s Leader An Israeli strike designed to free Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from house arrest in Tehran, U.S. officials said, was part of an effort to bring about regime change and put him in power… Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president known for his hard-line, anti-Israel and anti-American views. But the audacious plan, developed by the Israelis and which Mr. Ahmadinejad had been consulted about, quickly went awry, according to the U.S. officials who were briefed on it. Mr. Ahmadinejad was injured on the war’s first day by an Israeli strike at his home in Tehran that had been designed to free him from house arrest, the American officials and an associate of Mr. Ahmadinejad said. He survived the strike… but after the near miss he became disillusioned with the regime change plan… https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/iran-israel-us-leader-ahmadinejad.html Trump appeared on Monday morning to crow about his new WH Ballroom. Iran questions followed. Fox’s @EdwardLawrence on Monday morning: President Trump is at the ballroom construction site. He says the building is drone proof. (Who cares?!?!) @FoxNews: “All of this was paid for by myself… We are making a gift of this…” President Trump shows off the construction site of the historic White House ballroom, stressing the project is being funded as a gift — not by taxpayers. “This is a gift to the United States of America. and more than a gift. It’s going to be one of the most beautiful buildings that’s ever been built in the country. In Washington, D.C.” https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2056748333083836629 Who’s paying for the White House ballroom and what’s in it for them? – CBS Google, R.J. Reynolds, Booz Allen Hamilton, Lockheed Martin, Palantir and NextEra Energy have donated, and so have firms in the tech, manufacturing, banking and health industries… Lockheed Martin is among the companies that have pledged more than $10 million… Individuals have also pledged to contribute, including Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-white-house-ballroom-donor-names/ @nicksortor: President Trump reveals the roof of the ballroom was designed to have a DRONE PORT to “protect all of Washington.” “[The roof] is developed in such a way that we can have military there. The ENTIRE roof is developed for military. They’re very high. It’s higher than just about anything else. They have a 360-degree vision of Washington DC. They have a massive drone capacity. Not only is it drone proof, if a drone hits it, it bounces off. It won’t have any impact. But it’s also meant as a drone port, so it protects all of Washington, the roof of the building…” https://x.com/nicksortor/status/2056746058265329819 @disclosetv: Trump says the White House ballroom complex goes 6 stories underground with military facilities: “This was the one opportunity for the military to do something…” https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2056754105670922250 RedState.com’s @bonchieredstate: Inflation is 4%. The Iran thing is, by choice, way off the rails. Bond yields are skyrocketing, which means no interest rate cuts. The promise of all private funding for the ballroom has been broken. Obsessively promoting this is a political loser. What are we even doing? We are never getting lower interest rates as long as this continues. And this will continue until Trump gets off his hands regarding Iran. The more we let Iran play us, the worse things will get, all while the midterms get closer. Trump-IRS settlement ‘forever’ bars audits into (past) tax claims for Trump and his family https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-irs-settlement-forever-bars-audits-into-tax-claims-for-trump-and-his-family/ar-AA23Am2q Rep. Thomas Massie ousted in Kentucky by Trump-backed Ed Gallrein: ‘A true American Patriot’ https://trib.al/Ix4YKKP Today – Nvidia reports at 16:20 ET. EPS 1.78 and Revenue $78.91B are consensus. Nvidia was down on Tuesday until it turned positive after 12:35 ET. NVDA high 224.48, +2.18 pts, low 217.91, -4.31 pts, close 220.61, -1.71 or -0.77%. Early trading will again be dictated by bonds and Iran reports. Afternoon trading could be impacted by rumors or expectations about Nvidia’s results. @dnystedt: Nvidia’s supply chain partners in Taiwan see its first quarter (Q1) revenue hitting US$82 billion, higher than the US$80B the market expects, when the chip giant announces results May 20 (today), media report, adding Q2 guidance could be $90 billion. Server makers say Nvidia’s Blackwell (GB200) and Blackwell Ultra (GB300) NVL72 liquid cooling racks are already shipping in volume, and Vera Rubin production will begin ramping up in the 4th quarter. Nvidia is seen posting full-year record high revenue. ‘Stupid’: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Trashes Americans Who Believe We Shouldn’t Sell AI Chips to China https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2026/05/18/stupid-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-trashes-americans-who-believe-we-shouldnt-sell-ai-chips-to-china/ “They [capitalists] will furnish credits… and, by supplying us materials and technical equipment which we lack, will restore our military industry necessary for our future attacks against our suppliers. To put it in other words, they will work on the preparation of their own suicide.” – Attributed to Lenin in 1961 manuscript by I. U. Annenkov https://libquotes.com/vladimir-lenin/quote/lbv5x2p ESMs are -12.25; NQMs are -73.50; WTI oil is -$0.89; gasoline is -3.98¢; USMs are +4/32 at 20:24 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 6946; 100-day MA: 6923; 150-day MA: 6875; 200-day MA: 6791 DJIA 50-day MA: 48,065;100-day MA: 48,584; 150-day MA: 48,165; 200-day MA: 47,514 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (7353.61 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6035.78 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6658.09 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7351.60 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7500.00 triggers a buy signal @FBIDirectorKash: After an FBI investigation, a California woman has been charged with illegally paying people to register to vote in federal elections – even falsely listing her own former residence for California mail-out ballots for homeless individuals without a mailing address. Left’s election fraud denials crumble as DOJ exposes two-decade-long California cheating scheme https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/lefts-election-fraud-denials-crumble-doj-exposes-two-decade-long Illinois park district (Markham) director used taxpayer credit card for daughter’s prom helicopter, invoice shows https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/illinois-park-district-director-used-taxpayer-credit-card-for-daughters-prom-helicopter-invoice-shows/ar-AA238KhL @r0ck3t23: Peter Thiel thinks the physical world has been frozen in place for 50 years. Thiel: “It’s generally been stagnant in the world of atoms, not the world of bits for something like 50 years.”… The bridges look the same. The grid looks the same. The infrastructure holding 8 billion lives together hasn’t moved in half a century… Thiel and Lonsdale brought up Girard. Mimetic theory. Humans don’t form opinions. They absorb them from the room. Everyone copies everyone. And when the copy is wrong, nobody notices. Because agreement feels like truth. Entire industries running on inherited assumptions nobody alive has ever tested. Consensus passed down like furniture. Never questioned. Never examined. Just accepted… https://x.com/r0ck3t23/status/2056466596315435464 Mimetic theory is a model of human behavior developed by French philosopher René Girard. It posits that human desire is not original; instead, we learn what to want by imitating the desires of others (our “models”). This process of mimetic desire is the root cause of both human social cohesion and intense conflict. Unlike basic biological needs (food, water) which are instinctual, our complex wants (status, wealth, careers) are entirely copied. When multiple people admire the same model, they begin to desire the exact same objects. Because those objects cannot always be shared, the imitators inevitably turn into rivals. 2. The Scapegoat Mechanism – As mimetic rivalries escalate, they threaten to tear societies apart in cycles of revenge and violence. To restore peace, early communities would unconsciously unite against a single, vulnerable outsider or marginalized member—the scapegoat—blaming them for the crisis… 3. In the Unmasking of Violence Girard argued that mythology, law, and foundational societal structures are built on this ancient practice of scapegoating. He noted that religious texts (particularly the Bible) act as a historical turning point because they unmask this mechanism, consistently siding with the victims of violence and exposing the innocence of the scapegoats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mimetic_theory @TheBabylonBee: Conservative Primary Voters Excited to Choose Which Politician Will Betray Them Next (@elonmusk: Truth via Humor) | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEW DR JEROME CORSI
Deep State Admits Voter Fraud is Real – Dr. Jerome Corsi
By Greg Hunter On May 20, 2026 In Market Analysis, Political AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Dr. Jerome Corsi has a Harvard PhD in political science. He has written more than 50 books, and many of them became best-sellers. Dr. Corsi says the Democrat election and voter fraud days are caving in on them. The last time Dr. Corsi was on USAW, he said “Democrat Voter Fraud in America is Legion.” Former CIA Director John Brennan must have heard Dr. Corsi because two weeks later, the headline reads, “John Brennan: “Legion Of Professionals” In DOJ, FBI, CIA Are Still Resisting Trump’s Influence.” Was this a coincidence Brennan used the term “Legion”? Dr. Corsi says, “No, I think he is responding to the fact the resistance to Trump is overwhelming. He is balancing out the legitimate charge that the cheating is ‘Legion.’ He’s saying a ‘Legion’ of people are opposing Trump. That’s the real ‘Legion,’ and it’s Trump that is awful, and he’s the one blocking democracy. It’s ridiculous.”
So, former CIA Director Brennan is basically saying voter fraud is real? Dr. Corsi says, “Yes, he’s admitting it, and then he’s countering it saying the real ‘Legion’ are people opposing Trump. So, he’s trying to change the subject by using the same words. It doesn’t work. John Brennann is arguing that it is legitimate to oppose the President of the United States and the bureaucracy. . .. Therefore, he is legitimating insurrection.”
Dr. Corsi says the Democrat Party has changed into a communist party, and there is really nothing democratic about it. Dr. Corsi explains, “The design of the (Democrat) party is to destroy America. That was the original communist plan. Now, the Democrat Party is open to supporting Marxists for office and Islamists, radical Islamists like Mamdani (NYC Mayor). You have this fusion of radical Islam and Leftism because they both hate the United States. They are going on the theory of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Dr. Corsi goes on to say, “The Democrat Party has gone insane. They have no agenda, and all they want is power. It does not matter how they get it. They are increasingly becoming violent in the attempt to grasp power. That is becoming apparent to the American people. When the American people see that, the Democrat Party will have no reason for existing. It is rapidly proceeding to that point. . .. The Democrat Party has become rogue, anti-God, anti-family and an anti-life destruction engine. It’s become dangerous.”
Dr. Jerome Corsi points out the losses at the Supreme Court are making voter fraud more difficult with rulings that make it illegal to give extra days to count votes and forbidding redistricting on race alone. These are just a few of the ways Democrats are losing their voter fraud grip. There are also 130 lawsuits across 32 states to stop Dem voter fraud, and there are DOJ lawsuits to clean up voter rolls with 29 states that are blocking access. Dems are desperately trying to hold onto their voter fraud. Dr. Corsi says with the Senate refusing to pass the “Save Act,” President Trump will be forced to declare a national emergency, probably sooner than later. November midterms are a little more than five months away.
In closing, Dr. Corsi predicts, “President Trump is not going to allow the Democrats to steal the midterm elections and have two years more of impeachment after impeachment, which is what the Democrats have vowed to do. . .. I believe Trump is going to have to call in the National Guard in certain states in order to get a fair election.”
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with Dr. Jerome Corsi of GodsFiveStones.com. Find out why Dr. Corsi predicts Democrats will get increasingly violent as their avenues for voter and election fraud get smaller and smaller for 5.19.26.
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After the Interview:
To keep up with the progress of the massive voter fraud uncovered by Dr. Corsi, go to GodsFiveStones.com.
To donate to fund election integrity by Dr. Corsi and his group, you can make a tax-deductible donation by clicking here. GodsFiveStones.com is a 501(c)(3).
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