GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2026: 541 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 54,100 OZ or 1.6822 TONNES
total notices so far: 25,035 contracts FOR 2,503,500 OZ OR 77.869 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 70 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.350 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1943 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 9.565 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACTS OR 0.005 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ (CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 160,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 11.115 MILLION OZ//
SUMMARY OF OUR JUNE 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE..4.750 MILION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.160 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: 11.115 MILLION OZ
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.1213 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 80.936 TONNES
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1213 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 80.936 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 21.7451 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE 1884 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 101,915.
EFP ISSUANCE 450 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 440 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1884 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 450 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 2334 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WDESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.52
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 11.670 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $0.52
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JUNE 2 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.36 PTS OR 0.43%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 616.32 PTS OR 2.43%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 17.36 PTS OR 0.43%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.75%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7611
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7627 Oil DOWN TO 90.81 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 93.36 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7611) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7627 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 240 CONTRACTS TO 326,341 AND NOW IT BECOMES THE ALL TIME LOW OF 326,341 OI SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,341 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION EARLY DURING FRIDAY’S OP =EX TRADING (OTC/LONDON OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING). IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE LONG SIDE BUT WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPECULATORS WHO CONTINUALLY GO TO THE SHORT SIDE AND AND OF COURSE THEY WILL BE ANNHILATED ON CENTRAL BANK COMMAND!!
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MAY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $79.30).
WE THUS HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 2015 CONTRACTS (OR 6.267 TONNES) DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, EQUATING TO 2255 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. ON FRIDAY, BY FAR WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME BEATING THE PREVIOUS SINGLE HIGHEST ISSUE BY ONE TONNE. THUS MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO SO FAR
DETAILS ON OUR NEW JUNE COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2015 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE ($79.30). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH MAY/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A SMALL SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 834 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 106+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO. WE WILL KNOW IN JUNE WHETHER THEY COVERED ANY OF THEIR SHORTFALL.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES (CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.1213 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 80.936 TONNES//
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING JUNE,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $79.30)
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS STILL REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
MONDAY NIGHT//TUESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $79.30
WE HAD A STRONG 676 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 2015 CONTRACTS OR 201500 OZ OR 6.267 TONNES
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
JUNE 2
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | ENTRIES; 3 i) Out of Brinks 64.302 oz 2 kilobars ii) Out of Loomis: 2025.513 oz (63 kilobars) iii) Out of Manfra: 96.263 oz (3 kilobars) total withdrawal: 2196.268 oz (68 kilobars) or .068 tonnes |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER 1 ENTRY i) Into Manfra: 32,151.000 oz 1000 kilobars total deposit: 32,151.000 oz 1000 kilobars or 1 tonnne xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 541 CONTRACTS OR 54,100 OZ 1.6827 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 986 Contracts 98,600 OZ 3.066TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 25,035 notices 2,503,500 oz 77.869 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRY: 1
i) Into Manfra: 32,151.000 oz
1000 kilobars
total deposit: 32,151.000 oz
1000 kilobars or 1 tonnne
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
ENTRIES; 3
3 CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL ENTRIES
i) Out of Brinks 64.302 oz
2 kilobars
ii) Out of Loomis: 2025.513 oz
(63 kilobars)
iii) Out of Manfra: 96.263 oz
(3 kilobars)
total withdrawal: 2196.268 oz
(68 kilobars)
or
.068 tonnes
adjustments: 5 all dealer to customer account
Brinks: 62,350.867 oz dealer to customer account
HSBC 82,852.140 oz dealer to customer account
JPMorgan: 32,000.709 oz dealer to customer account
Loomis: 4726.177 oz
Manfra 02,757.240 oz
net gold leaving the dealer accounts: 205,667.155 oz (6.39 tonnes)
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI STANDS AT 1527 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 835 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 874 CONTRACTS SERVED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 39 CONTRACTS FOR 3900 OZ. (0.1273 TONNES).
JULY LOST 33 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 3228 CONTRACTS.
AUGUST LOST 127 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 262,673
.
We had 541 contracts filed for today representing 54,100oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 181 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 541 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 73 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (25,035) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE 1527 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 541 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,602,100 OZ OR (80.936Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (25,035) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE( 1527 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 541 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,602,100 OZ OR (80.936 Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in JUNE becomes 80.936 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE 80.936 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.
confirmed volume MONDAY confirmed 128,603// extremely poor// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,867,352.114 oz 58.08 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,867,352.114 tonnes oz 59.74 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 28,312m833.447oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,280,232.454 tonnes (475.279 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 13,032,601.013 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,412,880 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
417.196 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
JUNE DELIVERY MONTH
JUNE 2
JUNE DELIVERY MONTH
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | ONE ENTRY i) Out of Asahi: 405,665.800 oz total withdrawal: 405,665.800 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 entries i) Into the dealer STONEX: 14,933.990 oz total deposit 14,993.990 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT 3 entries i)Into Asahi 561,738.800 OZ ii) Into Loomis 600,257,130 oz iii) Into Manfra: 300,369.575 oz total deposit 1,462,365.505 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 70 CONTRACT(S) (0.350 MILLION OZ OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 310 Contract (1.555 MILLIONoz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2913 contracts 9.565 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
i) Into the dealer STONEX: 14,933.990 oz
total deposit 14,993.990 oz
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
3 ENTRIES
i)Into Asahi 561,738.800 OZ
ii) Into Loomis 600,257,130 oz
iii) Into Manfra: 300,369.575 oz
total deposit 1,462,365.505 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
1 ENTRIES
ONE ENTRY
i) Out of Asahi: 405,665.800 oz
total withdrawal: 405,665.800 o
adjustments 1 dealer to customer
i) Asahi: 405,665.800 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 84.586 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 318.678 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE /2026 OI: 380 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 118 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 150 NOTICES SERVED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 32 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 160,000 OZ WILL STAND AS A QUEUE JUMP AT THE SILVER COMEX.
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 288 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 70,742 CONTRACTS.
AUGUST SAW A GAIN OF 50 CONTRACTS UP TO 735…
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 70 or 0.350 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume MONDAY; 46,471// poor volume
XXX
AND NOW JUNE. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1913 X5,000 oz = 9.565 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE( 380) AND the number of notices served upon today (70 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE 2026 contract month: (1913 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE (380) minus number of notices served upon today (70)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JUNE..contract month equating to 11.115 MILLION OZ.+
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 84.586 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 140.287/318.678 million: 43.91
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
JUNE 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.712 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.856 TONNES
JUNE 1 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $79.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.568 TONNES
MAY 29 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.568 TONNES
MAY 28 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 27 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 26 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9988 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 22 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
MAY 21 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1028,856 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.855 MILLION OZ
JUNE 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.077 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.02: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.61: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.131 OF 0.315 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.153 MILLION OZ
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.022 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.64: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 484.855 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD..
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4.ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT 274 and 273
MUST VIEWl ANDREW’S NEWEST PODCAST
5. COMMODITY REPORT//RICE
The Cost Of The Grain That Feeds Half The World Just Posted Biggest Monthly Surge Since 2008
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 04:15 AM
Asian rice prices logged their biggest monthly gain in nearly two decades in May, as a Gulf energy shock collides with an expected El Niño event later this year. The spike adds to the mounting risks of a broader food price shock that could emerge as soon as six months from now.
Any time rice prices spike, it is a major concern because the grain feeds more than half the world’s population, estimated at 3.5 to 4 billion people.
Thailand white rice, a regional Asian benchmark, surged 20% in May, the largest monthly increase in data going back to 2008, according to Bloomberg. Chicago rice futures rose 15% last month.
Seasonality:
BMI analyst Bin Hui Ong warned that an expected El Niño event later this year will unleash adverse weather conditions across major rice-growing belts in Asia, including hotter, drier conditions. She noted this adds further upside to rice prices in the months ahead.
It is not just the threat of a severe El Niño event on analysts’ radars. There are also continued elevated diesel and fertilizer costs tied to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. This will further weigh on rice production yields across import-reliant Asia.
Rice farming is already highly fertilizer-intensive, while irrigation systems often depend on diesel-powered pumps.
In Vietnam’s Vinh Long province, a farmer told Bloomberg that he plans to skip one of his usual three annual crops due to rising input costs and extreme heat.
Fertilizer prices in Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines have soared by nearly 50% since late February, according to the International Rice Research Institute.
The Philippines has warned that a strong El Niño could cut rice production by up to 700,000 tons, or 3.5% of its annual production target.
Already, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, is trending upward and risks a further leg higher.
Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, warned in mid-March that disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz would spark shortages of energy and fertilizers, translating into higher food prices in “six to nine months from now.”
Related:
- We Are 6 Months From Global Food Shortages Because Farmers Are Facing A Quadruple Whammy Crisis
- Everyone Talks About The Cost Of Gasoline… Soon Everyone Will Be Talking About The Cost Of Food
Last month, ZeroHedge Debates held a roundtable to ask: How bad will the food inflation mess get?
View here:
Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld outlined where food inflation is expected to hit the hardest, on a country-by-country level, this year (see report)
END
COMMODITY: COPPER:
HSBC Warns Of Commodity “Super-Squeeze” As Goldman Hikes Copper Forecasts
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 02:45 PM
Copper is inching closer to its mid-May all-time high of $14,153 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, trading around $13,832 on Tuesday morning, as Goldman raised its year-end price targets and HSBC warned that commodities face a “super-squeeze” with the Hormuz maritime chokepoint still largely shuttered in early June.
Let’s begin with HSBC analysts, who wrote in a note to clients that “metal prices are generally in an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities due to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand.”
They warned that commodities were facing a “super-squeeze” with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.
HSBC’s note comes after Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham told clients Monday that the core issue with copper markets right now is supply:
- Year-to-date data does suggest that supply recovery from previous disruption events has trailed our expectations. Accordingly, we lower our 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt, equivalent to ~1.5% of global mine supply, including ~200kt less from Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) combined, with neither returning to full capacity until 2028.
At the same time, she said stronger-than-expected US copper imports in the first half of 2026 are tightening the ex-US market:
- Furthermore, US copper imports in H1 2026 have exceeded our previous forecast, tightening the ex-US balance. As a result, we now expect US inventory to build by 900kt in 2026 (vs. 550kt previously), even as our base case remains that no copper tariff will be announced this year.
The combination of soft mine supply, US stockpiling, tariff uncertainty, and long-term demand tied to AI buildout and grid-upgrade themes prompted Waltham to upgrade her end-of-year 2026 and 2027 copper price forecasts:
- We raise our end-2026/average 2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735/$13,800 from $12,465/$12,150 previously (vs. forwards at $13,630/$13,610).
She mapped out three price scenarios for copper:
1. Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed for Longer: While we would expect limited impact on the global copper balance as the demand hit from lower economic growth is largely offset by lower copper supply due to sulfur shortages, a substantial pullback in global risk appetite could push the LME price down to its fundamental support level at ~$12,600 in H2 2026, before resuming an upward trend.
2. US Copper Tariff Announced for January 2027: If a US copper tariff is announced prospectively in June 2026, to start in January 2027, we would expect US copper imports to accelerate in H2 2026 (vs. our base case of a slowdown in imports), tightening the ex-US balance and raising prices to over $14,000 in H2 2026. However, we would expect prices to retreat in 2027 as imports stop once the tariff is imposed.
3. Announcement of No Copper Tariff: A definitive decision against the tariff would reduce the size of our ex-US deficit forecast in 2026 and push the ex-US market back into surplus in 2027 as imports fall to a negligible level. In this scenario, we would expect the price to fall to an average of $12,800/t in 2027.
Mapped out here:
Professional subscribers can read the full copper note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal
With Hormuz still all but shuttered and only a 22% chance that the critical waterway reopens by the end of June, according to a Polymarket bet, it would take many months, if not quarters, to normalize shipping flows. This indicates that the commodities cycle will likely remain bullish into early summer.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.36 PTS OR 0.43%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 616.32 PTS OR 2.43%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 17.36 PTS OR 0.43%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.75%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7611
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7627 Oil DOWN TO 90.81 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 93.36 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7611) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7627 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7611
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7627
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 616.32 PTS OR 2.43%
2. Nikkei closed UP 17.36 PTS OR 0.43%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 90.81
BRENT; 93.36
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.05/// EURO RISES TO 1.1647 UP 12 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.570 DOWN11 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 159.69… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.843 DOWN 7 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.7611 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7627
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.9509// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.670// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.363%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.606%
3j Gold at $4536.00 //Silver at: 76.85 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 61/ 100 roubles/72.56
3m oil (WTI) into the 90 dollar handle for WTI and 93 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.69 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.570% DOWN 11 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.843 DOWN 7 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7845 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9142
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.4311 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9530 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.021 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.93 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.8480 DOWN 6 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.540 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.427 UP 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.081 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
US Futures Dip As Questions Mount Over Relentless Tech Rally, Lack Of Peace Progress
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 08:22 AM
Futs are weaker but well off their overnight lows as the US is set to lag its global peers; according to JPM investors will need to watch to see if there is a beginning of a larger rotation similar to Jan-Feb or perhaps a slight pullback following the US’s multi-week run. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% after the artificial-intelligence trade fueled the S&P 500’s longest winning streak in more than a year, with investors gauging prospects for an end to the war in the Middle East. Nasdaq futures down a fraction after clocking yet more records on Monday (driven by a surge in Software stocks), as traders digest a barrage of AI news overnight while a growing number of traders urge caution on market positioning and the technical setup. Im premarket trading the story remains Tech with HPE / MRVL both up ~25% and AVGO +6.5%, NVDA +1.8%. Industrials, Materials, and Utilities the standout sectors. Technology stocks led gains in Asia overnight and are doing the same in Europe where the Stoxx 600 climbs 0.7%. Overnight macro news was quiet, and broader risk sentiment has also been helped by Brent crude futures falling 1.6% to around $93 a barrel. Treasuries advance, pushing US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.44%.Oil / Energy prices are declining along with Ags as Metals are bid led by aluminum, copper, and precious. US economic data calendar includes April JOLTS job openings at 10am; Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (8:30am) and Goolsbee (11pm).
In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mixed with Alphabet down 2.7% after raising $80 billion through a package of equity offerings, including a deeply discounted private placement with Berkshire Hathaway and a $40bn ATM ovvering (Nvidia +1.5%, Meta +0.5%, Tesla flat, Apple -0.1%, Amazon -1.6%, Microsoft -2.6%)
- Shares of semiconductor companies are rallying as investors continue to rotate into the sector, seeing strong long-term growth potential related to artificial intelligence.
- Credo Technology Group (CRDO) falls 3% after the communications equipment company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations but weren’t strong enough to extend recent strength.
- Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) plunges 50% after the company discontinued its pociredir program for treatment of sickle cell disease and initiated a strategic review.
- Generac (GNRC) is up 9% after the company signed a global agreement to supply backup power generators to a leading hyperscale data center operator.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) rallies 25% after the company gave an outlook for annual sales that topped estimates, citing massive growth in AI-fueled demand for its servers and networking.
- Intuit (INTU) is down 5% after Goldman downgraded its rating on the maker of tax-preparation software to sell, the only negative rating among 32 analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 22% after Nvidia’s Jensen Huang called the firm the “next trillion dollar company.”
- Microchip Technology (MCHP) gains 7% after the chipmaker says its data center solutions unit generated $302.7m in revenue in calendar year 2025, with about $500m expected for this year.
- NU Holdings (NU) falls 5% after the company announced a CFO transition, hiring Visa Inc.’s Rob Livingston to succeed Guilherme Lago.
- Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) falls 10% after the company said said vormatrigine did not meet its primary endpoint of percent change in monthly seizure frequency in the Phase 2/3 study.
In corporate news, Abivax shares plunged after cancer cases in a crucial clinical trial for an experimental bowel disease drug threw the French biotech’s future into question. Morgan Stanley risks being drawn into a probe over Bolloré’s disposal of an allegedly corrupt €5.7 billion ($6.6 billion) asset.
In AI developments, Arm may achieve its target of $15 billion in sales of its own chips earlier than anticipated, according to its CEO. SK Hynix plans to double its memory chip wafer capacity to help ease the memory chip crunch. HPE delivered a sizable beat and raise after-hours on the back of growing AI-fueled demand for its servers and networks. Alphabet unveiled an $80 billion equity raise to fund AI spending. And Tencent shares surged after a report it’s set to launch WeChat AI agent.
Traders are juggling unprecedented euphoria around the economic potential of AI and a war that has brought about a historic disruption in oil markets. Uncertainty about how close a deal may be means investors must consider that crude prices could retreat dramatically or scale to the highest levels in years. Downside risks are also growing as US large-cap positioning continued to grind higher last week, led by persistent new risk flows to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, according to Citigroup strategists. “How much more concentration can investors handle” is the question posed by Bloomberg strategists, noting that re-risking has been unusually quick and narrow.
“Triggers that could force an unwind include hawkish Fed repricing, structural rebalancing risks surrounding a prominent SpaceX IPO, or a momentum rotation out of over-allocated Tech into Cyclicals,” notes Andrew Kent at Kyte. At these current levels, the forward three-month return profile for the S&P 500 exhibits “a clear fat left tail, signaling a significantly higher probability of a >5% correction,” Kent adds.
In the latest example of the vast amounts of capital being pumped into AI infrastructure, Alphabet Inc. said it is raising $80 billion through equity offerings. The announcement came hours after Anthropic PBC filed draft paperwork for a possible blockbuster initial public offering.
“We may be approaching the point where optimism around the long-term positive impact of the AI buildout is going to crash against a wall of higher yields, higher inflation and lower growth,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management.
The next part of the tech trade to experience FOMO-driven chasing looks to be software stocks. In the past two sessions, theSoftware Sector ETF IGV has experienced the familiar “vol-up/spot-up” pattern as investors have bought call options to chase upside. That’s seen the call skew invert and the volatility spread vs S&P 500 reach extremes again.
With all attention constantly focused on AI rather than macro jobs data, the set-up into US non-farm payrolls data suggests a muted reaction to the reading on Friday. Through the lens of S&P 500 options, Barclays derivatives strategists note the current NFP-related implied move of 55 bps is significantly lower than the past one-year average realized move.
“US data, such as the ISM manufacturing print we just had, still keeps the Fed/inflation debate alive and limits the scope for a dovish rates repricing, especially if oil remains volatile,” said Alessandro Gabellone, fixed-income analyst at Bank Degroof Petercam. Tuesday’s figures on US job openings will likely add to the series of favorable labor-market data releases for April. High-frequency data suggest total openings inched up, particularly in the second half of the month, according to Bloomberg.
In other assets, commodities are in a “super-squeeze,” rather than “super-cycle” that will worsen if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, according to HSBC analysts. Bitcoin dipped below $70,000 as Strategy’s rare sale of the token continues to weigh on fragile sentiment.
In hedge fund news, famed short seller Andrew Left faces the possibility of 25 years behind bars after being found guilty of using disingenuous social media posts to manipulate stocks, in a landmark case that threatens to chill a broader trading strategy loathed by corporate executives.
Technology stocks led gains in Europe where the Stoxx 600 climbs 0.7%. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- STMicro shares soared as much as 10% to the highest since 2000, after the chipmaker raised its data center revenue forecast for this year to about $1 billion
- Alzchem shares rose as much as 13% to a record high as the German maker of chemicals used for ammunition and muscle enhancement announces that defense firm CSG has been increasing its stake
- Hiab rallied as much as 7.9%, adding to its 5.6% advance on Monday, as analysts raise their price targets on the Finnish cargo-handling firm, lauding yesterday’s announcement that it’s buying refuse collection vehicle manufacturer Labrie Environmental Group
- Deutsche Post shares rose as much as 3.6% to their highest level in over four years after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded its rating to buy. The broker cites strength in a key metric, weight transported
- Entain shares rose as much as 4.6%, extending Monday’s gains after MGM Resorts confirmed it received a takeover offer from People Inc
- IntegraFin Holdings gained as much as 6.1%, the most since mid-December, after Shore Capital upgrades the investment platform provider to buy from hold in a note, saying it’s “an excellent business, properly undervalued”
- Abivax shares plunged as much as 32%, the most in a decade, after the French biotech company reported cancer cases in a crucial clinical trial for its experimental inflammatory bowel disease drug
- British American Tobacco shares fell as much as 3.8%, extending a seven-day losing streak, as a trading update showed continued downtrading from consumers is hurting margins, overshadowing the firm’s maintained guidance and growth in new, smoke-free categories
- Avolta shares dropped as much as 5.9% to CHF45, after holder Richemont sold its stake in the Basel, Switzerland-based travel retail store operator for CHF45.35 per share
- Paragon Banking Group shares fell as much as 7.6% to the lowest in nearly two months after first-half impairments prove unexpectedly big
- GB Group slumped as much as 17%, the most since April 2025, after the identity verification and fraud prevention company announced additional investments to accelerate growth, which will impact short-term numbers
Asian stocks rebounded from early losses to extend their run of record‑setting gains, lifted by falling crude prices and gains in chipmakers and other technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6% in afternoon trading, heading for a record, after being down as much as 1% Tuesday. Tencent Holdings, Samsung Electronics and TSMC were among the top gainers, underscoring investors’ continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence-related shares. Hong Kong and China led the region’s gains, while Japan fell. Investors eyeing major Chinese technology firms in Hong Kong helped revive the Asia benchmark, following a report of Tencent’s progress in launching an AI agent on WeChat and Meituan’s narrower quarterly losses. A gauge tracking these companies rose 4.7%. Indian information technology stocks also gained, after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang rebuffed concerns that the software industry is at risk of being disrupted by more advanced AI tools.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged 0.1% lower and oil prices eased as President Donald Trump said he is still optimistic the US can reach an interim peace deal with Iran soon, even after the Islamic Republic threatened to suspend talks. AUD/USD gained 0.3% to 0.7182 after Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy board member Ian Harper said strong action is needed if inflation expectations become unanchored,USD/JPY ticked up less than 0.1% to 159.73. EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1650
In rates, treasuries advance, pushing US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.44% supported by a wider rally across European bonds as oil unwinds a portion of Monday’s gains on optimism around the prospects of a US-Iran peace deal flagged by President Donald Trump. US yields richer by 2bp to 3bp across the curve with belly marginally outperforming, richening the 2s5s30s fly by ~1bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade around 4.425%, richer by 3bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 2.5bp and 4.5bp in the sector. European government bonds outperform with UK and German 10-year borrowing costs falling 5-6 bps each. Labor market in focus for the US session with JOLTS job openings data due, ahead of ADP employment and the May jobs report later this week.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 1.3% near session lows. Precious metals advance, with spot silver adding 2% and gold trading around $4,525. Bitcoin falls below $70,000 for the first time since April.
US economic data calendar includes April JOLTS job openings at 10am; Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (8:30am) and Goolsbee (11pm).
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Lebanon announced a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel on Monday in what would amount to a limited de-escalation of a conflict that has killed thousands of people and inflamed the broader U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. RTRS
- The fighting in Lebanon had become a major sticking point in end-of-war talks as Iran considers the conflict a violation of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Trump received briefings in recent weeks that the Israel-Hezbollah conflict was one of the key reasons why Iran remained unwilling to make a deal with the U.S., Trump administration officials said. WSJ
- The Trump administration on Monday proposed a 25 percent tariff on a broad range of Brazilian imports, concluding after a trade investigation that Brazil had engaged in unfair practices that imposed burdens on American businesses. NYT
- The White House will cut tariffs on agricultural equipment, such as combines and harvesters, to 15% from 25% on June 8. A lower 10% duty rate may apply if the equipment contains at least 85% US steel or aluminum. BBG
- Gold has overtaken US government bonds as the world’s top reserve asset following years of relentless buying by central banks and a historic rally that has seen prices nearly double over the past two years. FT
- SK Hynix plans to double its memory chip wafer capacity over the coming half-decade to ease a global shortage of a key AI component. BBG
- Former BOJ board member Sayuri Shirai said the central bank may hold rates steady this month because underlying inflation pressures haven’t strengthened that much. BBG
- The US is discussing whether to deploy nuclear weapons in additional European Nato states, in a move intended to reassure allies that reduced conventional military support does not weaken security guarantees. FT
- NVDA CEO Jensen Huang said on Tuesday the company has enough supply to accommodate robust growth in central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) as it rides an AI boom. The company, considered a barometer for the AI market’s health as its semiconductors are used in virtually every major data center in the world, acknowledged, however, that supply constraints remain a concern. RTRS
Iran War
- US President Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week, while he also stated that a peace agreement with Iran could be better than a military victory. Trump also stated that it’s not simple for both sides, but they’re getting what they need to get and that he still has to get a few more points.
- US President Trump said he had a very productive call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and that there will be no troops going to Beirut, while he added that Hezbollah agreed that all shooting will stop.
- US President Trump reportedly lashed out at Israeli PM Netanyahu over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon in an expletive-laden call on Monday, according to Axios, citing two US officials and a source briefed on the call.
- Iran’s final text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet, Mehr News reported citing sources.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said talks will halt if Israeli actions persist in Lebanon, and warned that Iran will confront Israel if atrocities in Lebanon continue.
- A senior Iranian official said a renewed war with US ‘inevitable’, Arab News reported citing state TV.
- Iran’s IRGC reported targeting a US-owned commercial vessel with a cruise missile, according to Al Jazeera.
- Iran’s IRGC said 24 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours after obtaining permission from Iran, Nour News reported.
- “A number of vessel owners are saying that they are no longer receiving IRGC threats via the radio, which wasn’t the case a few weeks back. But still the confidence level in crossing is low”, Kpler’s Bakr posted.
- Lebanon officials said Hezbollah and Israel agreed to the US proposal for mutual cessation of hostilities. Israel will stop strikes on Beirut southern suburbs under the proposed agreement, Press TV reported.
- Israeli airstrikes target sites in southern Lebanon, Sky News Arabia reported.
- Source close to Yemen’s Houthis emphasised they will not allow Lebanon to be attacked and Hezbollah to fight alone, according to SNN.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside, where the major indices ultimately finished mostly higher amid tech strength and mixed geopolitical updates. ASX 200 was subdued amid weakness in real estate, financials and defensives, while sentiment was also not helped by a slew of mostly weaker-than-expected data releases. Nikkei 225 slipped after printing a new all-time high at the open with very few fresh catalysts from Japan, and as the recent mixed geopolitical headlines provide an opportunity to book profits. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mixed picture with the mainland flat, while the Hong Kong benchmark was led higher by strength in the big tech names, with Meituan underpinned post-earnings, while Tencent, Alibaba, Lenovo, Kuaishou, SMIC and JD were all among the top performers.
Top Asian News
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama refrained from commenting on FX intervention and current FX levels, while she said volatility in oil markets remain and prepared to take appropriate action. Closely coordinating with the US on Forex, and both sides are closely monitoring markets.
- South Korean Inflation Rate YoY (May) Y/Y 3.1% (Prev. 2.6%).
- South Korean Inflation Rate MoM (May) M/M 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%).
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) start Tuesday’s trade with broad gains after raised hopes of an imminent US-Iran deal. US President Trump said negotiations with Tehran were continuing and signalled expectations of a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen Hormuz “over the next week”. Furthermore, Trump also claimed Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to stop shooting, which further weighed on energy prices and boosted the global risk tone. European sectors highlight the positive bias. Technology (+2.7%) tops the sector pile, with Basic Resources (+2.2%) following closely behind as metals surge amid worries of a tighter global supply. Energy (-0.7%), Healthcare (-0.6%) and Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-0.4%) are the only sectors printing modest losses.
Top European News
- EU is weighing fiscal flexibility for energy costs, while the proposal would allow countries budgetary leeway to cushion energy costs, according to Bloomberg.
- US is in talks to expand nuclear weapon deployments in Europe, according to FT.
- UK Labour leader candidate Andy Burnham said he rules out an early General Election if he is elected to replace PM Starmer, Bloomberg reported citing his spokesperson.
- UK’s Ofgem is seeking views on draft guidance to support proportionate supply chain security risk management in the downstream gas and electricity sector.
FX
- G10s are mixed but mostly stronger against the Buck as energy benchmarks pull back alongside more constructive Gulf headlines.
- The Buck trades a touch lower after pressure seen in the early European morning attempted to push the Dollar index to the 99.00 level. Markets are generally more risk-on after headlines overnight were more constructive than those seen on Monday. See 08:20 BST headline for geopolitical specifics. US domestic newsflow has been light. Today sees the release of JOLTS job openings. The figure is expected to be broadly unchanged from the March figure. DXY trades 0.1% lower within a 99.05-9922 range.
- EUR is a touch firmer against the weaker Buck in a reaction you would expect to see in response to the recent geopolitical headlines. The EZ Inflation report held a hawkish skew, with the energy component and Services jumping. The single currency was little moved on the report, given it ultimately plays in favour of a hike in June, which is ultimately fully priced in.
- JPY is incrementally lower vs the USD. Japan saw strong demand at its 10yr auction overnight, where demand rose beyond the 12-month average despite the BoJ slated to hike rates in two weeks. JPY saw modest strength on the results, though it proved fleeting with USD/JPY rangebound given the various fiscal/Terms of Trade headwinds. In a note this morning, ING wrote “The risk of new intervention does look a bit underpriced, considering Japanese authorities have remained rather hawkish with their intervention narrative.” Katayama was on the wires overnight, she said: “Closely coordinating with the US on FX.”
Fixed Income
- Global fixed benchmarks are stronger across the board, facilitated by a pullback in energy prices after some positive-leaning geopolitical newsflow. In brief, President Trump suggested that talks with Iran are continuing at a rapid pace, adding that he thinks an agreement will be made with Iran to extend the ceasefire over the next week.
- As for price action, USTs benefit from the lower energy prices this morning, with gains of c. 8 ticks at pixel time; currently holds at the upper end of a 109-22 to 109-30 range (vs Monday’s trough of 109-09+). From a yield perspective, rates at the belly of the curve are underperforming vs short-dated rates, signalling that traders remain uncertain about near-term geopolitical progress. The 10yr (4.43%) now resides back towards recent troughs, and another leg lower could see a test of the low from 12 May at 4.41%. Focus ahead turns to US JOLTS.
- Bunds (+50 ticks) and Gilts (+60 ticks) also extend higher, following the geopolitical risk tone. For the EZ specifically, a hawkish inflation report out of the EZ (Services at 3.5% from 3.00%, and Core Y/Y topped expectations), led to some mild pressure in German paper.
- JGBs (+92 ticks) are outperforming vs peer, boosted by the geopolitical tone and a solid 10yr Japanese auction. Whilst the b/c and avg. yield were not so good, the lowest accepted price fell to 98.01 (prev. 98.86), indicating some solid demand for the paper. The 10yr knee-jerked higher following the sale, before then gradually moving higher as other investors also bought debt. As it stands, the 10yr (2.57%) now resides at levels not seen since 13 May 2026.
- Germany sells EUR 3.857bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.58x (prev. 1.4x), average yield 2.59% (prev. 2.70%), retention 22.86% (prev. 22.8%).
- UK sells GBP 3.25bln 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt: b/c 3.63x, average yield 4.975%, tail 0.2bps.
- Japan sells JPY 1.98tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 3.53x (prev. 3.90x, 12-month avg. 3.35x), average yield 2.649% (prev. 2.540%).
Central Banks
- ECB’s Rehn says a June rate move would be an insurance hike and that inflation expectations remain unanchored.
- ECB’s Simkus said consumer short-term inflation expectations are similar to 2022 and that it is important to react in a timely manner to inflation.
- Rabobank maintains its forecast for a 25bps ECB rate hike next week; expects the ECB to raise rates by another 25bps, likely in September.
- RBA’s Harper said stronger than expected domestic demand and re-emergence of capacity constraints have widened the output gap again, and markets are now anticipating that the bank would have to address this, while he added that persistent inflation is a genuine concern and market measures of inflation have gone up, which is a worry.
- Nikkei reported that the BoJ is continuing to call for a June hike, though the government is opting for a “wait-and-see” approach given the risks of risking inflation and a weaker JPY.
- BoJ summary of meeting with investors: one participant said the need for further tapering of bond purchases is not high; participant said there is no need for further tapering of bond buying. One participant said the BoJ should act nimbly, such as conducting emergency bond-buying operations as needed when the bond market destabilises.
Commodities
- Crude futures are subdued this European morning as the complex takes a breather from yesterday’s surge, with upside capped by constructive comments from US President Trump. To recap, US President Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace and that he believes an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within the next week. That being said, it was reported this morning that Iran’s final text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet; Mehr News reported, citing sources. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official said renewed war with the US is ‘inevitable’, Arab News reported, citing state TV. Elsewhere, Lebanon emerged as a major issue, with Iran warning that continued Israeli actions could impact negotiations.
- WTI and Brent front-month futures trade softer by some 2% and 1.8% respectively, at the time of writing after the benchmarks settled higher by USD 4.80/bbl and USD 3.86/bbl, respectively, on Monday. Benchmarks have held a negative bias throughout the European morning. WTI Jul resides towards the bottom end of a USD 90.15-92.65/bbl range, Brent Aug trades in a USD 90.66-92.85/bbl range. Dutch TTF trades -2.5% within the recent EUR 47-48/MWh range.
- Spot gold is slightly firmer as the USD remains subdued by oil prices, with the yellow metal in a USD 4,463-4,541/oz range, within yesterday’s USD 4,447-4,546/oz range. Spot silver similarly rebounds but tops yesterday’s high (USD 76.29/oz) to currently trade towards the top end of a USD 74.48-76.93/oz range.
- Base metals are firmer across the board amid the softer USD and softer oil prices, coupled with a firm performance across Chinese markets overnight. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13,821.53-13,992.22/t range at the time of writing.
- The IEA’s oil division chief said oil supplies from the US, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela have exceeded expectations, but output from the Americas can only marginally offset supplies lost East of Suez.
- UAE’s ADNOC executive said China’s demand is starting to come back, and “teapot” refineries are showing appetite.
Trade/Tariffs
- White House released a Fact Sheet stating President Trump signed a Proclamation adjusting certain metals tariffs to more effectively address national security threats and spur investment. The Proclamation adjusts the tariffs on agricultural equipment, like combines and harvesters, as well as certain other equipment, from 25% to 15%, while it expands the category of industrial equipment subject to a 15% tariff to include mobile industrial equipment, like bulldozers and forklifts, when imported from trade deal countries that are entitled to such treatment. It also encourages foreign companies to use more US steel and aluminium by allowing them to qualify for a 10% duty rate if their capital equipment includes at least 85% US melted and poured or smelted and cast steel or aluminium by weight.
- US Trade Representative said they determined that Brazil has performed unreasonable acts under Section 301 and that the acts are actionable, while the US continues to engage with Brazil to seek a resolution, and the US will hold a hearing about proposed action on June 6th. USTR later proposed to impose tariffs of 25% on all imports from Brazil, except for goods that are subject to Section 232 national security tariffs.
- European Parliament’s Trade Committee voted in favour of legislation to remove EU duties on several US goods imports.
Geopolitics
- Russia’s Kremlin said systematic strikes against Ukrainian military infrastructure are being carried out, however reiterated that it is ready to achieve its aims in Ukraine through diplomacy.
- Explosions were reported in Kyiv, and a witness said the city sustained a large-scale air bombardment, while Ukraine’s air force said it detected missiles headed towards the Sumy region and Kyiv, as well as UAVs that were headed towards Zaporizhzhia from the south.
- Air raid sirens were activated in Ukraine’s Kyiv, while authorities urged residents to seek shelter.
- Ukraine’s military said it has struck Russia’s Ilsky oil refinery (132k-138k BPD).
US Event Calendar
- 10:00 am: Apr JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6866k, prior 6866k
- 1:50 am: Fed’s Kashkari in Panel Discussion
- 8:30 am: Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Monetary Policy
- 11:00 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CBS Chicago
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I’ll be at a Parisian breakfast as you read this presenting our new semi-annual World Outlook, which is called “1999 meets 1990”. The title reflects the interplay of AI-driven optimism and the disruptive effects of the Middle East conflict, which makes it feel like those two years are now coinciding.
In the outlook, our baseline expectation is that a US-Iran deal is reached this month that allows shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume, with Brent crude falling back to $86/bbl in Q4. However, if the Strait of Hormuz experiences a prolonged closure, that would push Brent towards $150/bbl, hitting global growth and pushing Europe into recession. But net net, our global GDP forecast has only been trimmed slightly to 3.0% this year, before recovering back to 3.2% in 2027.
For markets, our equity strategists remain constructive, still seeing the S&P 500 at 8000 by year-end. However, our fixed-income strategists expect a further selloff, with 10yr Treasury yields reaching 4.7%, and 10yr bund yields up to 3.2%. In credit, we also see some mild spread widening by year-end, particularly in Europe. And on the FX side, we expect a continued (albeit slower) dollar depreciation, with EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end.
Looking at the last 24 hours, 1990 continued to fight it out with 1999 as higher oil met fresh mega equity issuance and AI euphoria. Brent crude (+4.24%) and 10yr Treasury yields (+1.7bps) climbed yesterday as headlines pointed away from a US-Iran deal though the S&P 500 (+0.26%) still reached a fifth consecutive record high as AI optimism persisted. However, the equity mood has softened overnight, with NASDAQ futures (-0.67%) underperforming those on the S&P (-0.42%) as news that Alphabet is planning a $80bn equity offering, reminding investors of unprecedented scale of the AI spending boom.
Starting with Iran, the biggest market moving story yesterday came as Iran’s Tasnim news reported that negotiators would suspend “talks and the exchange of documents through mediators”, which dashed hopes for an imminent deal. A little later, further escalatory risks came into play, as Iran also threatened to target northern Israel if Israel continued attacks on Lebanon. That was according to Iran’s ISNA news, who cited the country’s Central Military Command. This marked a clear shift from the more hopeful tone of last week. The mood did then improve later in the session as Trump sought to de-escalate the tensions in Lebanon, with the US President claiming that Israel and Hezbollah agreed to “stop shooting” at each other after his calls with their respective leaders. Trump also countered the news out of Iran, claiming talks were continuing “at a rapid pace” and telling ABC News yesterday evening that he thinks an MoU will be completed “over the next week”.
Trump’s intervention helped ease fears that the weekend’s escalation in Lebanon would lead to a broader re-escalation between the US and Iran. Still, uncertainty over the possible US-Iran deal persists, with growing doubts that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon. For instance, the Polymarket probability of a return to normal traffic in the Strait this month stands at 22%, down from 26% on Sunday and 36% back on Friday. The resulting increased caution in oil markets saw Brent crude jumping to as high as $97.79bbl following the Tasnim report before settling at $94.98/bbl. When adjusting for the roll in the monthly benchmark from July to August, this marked the biggest daily jump for the front-end contract (+4.24%) in four weeks. Brent is -0.74% lower this morning as I type.
This backdrop of rising oil prices yesterday led investors to price back in the chance of a stagflationary shock. So yields moved higher, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+1.7bps) reversing a run of 7 consecutive declines to close at 4.45%, though it did retreat from an intra-day higha of 4.516%. In Europe markets closed before the positive comments on Lebanon came through, with yields on 10yr bunds (+6.5bps), OATs (+7.9bps) and BTPs (+8.3bps) all posting larger increases. Pricing of a Fed rate hike by December moved up to a 69% probability, having been at 57% on Friday, while for the ECB 63bps of hikes are now priced by year-end (+11.5bps yesterday).
Whilst oil prices drove most of yesterday’s bond moves, a rise in yields was also supported by another batch of solid data. Most notably in the US, the ISM manufacturing print hit a 4-year high of 54.0 in May (vs. 53.0 expected), which cemented the view of economic resilience there. Meanwhile in the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI was also revised up modestly from the flash print, up two-tenths to 51.6.
For equities, US stocks held onto their risk-on tone yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.26%) and the NASDAQ (+0.42%) both posting an 8th consecutive advance to fresh records. That marks the first time in a year the S&P has achieved 8 consecutive daily gains. And if you look at the moves on a weekly basis, a positive gain this week would be the S&P’s 10th consecutive advance, which is something we haven’t seen since 1985. The Mag-7 (-1.03%) did decline amid outsized losses for Meta (-5.07%) and Tesla (-4.57%), while the Philly semiconductor index rose +1.06%. The latter included a large dispersion among the chipmakers as Nvidia (+6.26%) announced a new chip to enter the PC market. The news also boosted the likes of ARM Holdings (+15.73%) and Micron (+6.64%) but weighed on Intel (-4.67%) and Qualcomm (-8.78%).
In other tech news, Anthropic confidentially submitted its draft IPO filing, which follows the anticipation that OpenAI will also file for an IPO soon. Then shortly after the US close, we heard that Alphabet is set to raise $80bn through a package of equity offerings that includes a $10bn investment from Berkshire Hathaway. So funding of the AI capex boom is becoming an increasingly key topic for markets. The 1999 comparison in our World Outlook seemed quite apt yesterday.
Across the Atlantic it was a more downbeat picture, with the STOXX 600 (-0.76%) seeing a sizeable decline, reflecting the region’s greater exposure to the energy shock and as European markets closed before some of the more constructive headlines came through. Euro STOXX 50 futures (+0.38%) are reversing some of yesterday’s loss overnight.
In Asia we’re seeing a mixed picture with the KOSPI (-1.97%) and the Nikkei (-1.53%) the worst performers with both indexes falling from record highs. Additionally, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.33%) is also edging lower. However the Hang Seng (+1.46%) is bucking the regional trend with gains in heavyweight tech shares. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese stocks are a mixed bag with the CSI (+0.78%) trading moderately higher while the Shanghai Composite (-0.04%) is flat. Meanwhile, 10yr USTs are -1.4bps lower trading at 4.44% as we go to print.
Early morning data showed that Korean CPI hit a 26-month high in May, ramping up bets that the Bank of Korea will hike interest rates later this year. CPI rose +3.1% from a year earlier (v/s +2.9% expected), after climbing +2.6% in April.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for May, UK mortgage approvals for April, and the US JOLTS report for April. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Hammack, the ECB’s Rehn, Vujcic and Sleijpen, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Greene.
1b European opening report
Equities broadly supported following constructive US-Iran comments – Newsquawk Daily US Market Open
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 06:21 AM
- US President Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week.
- US equity futures lack direction just shy of ATHs, while European bourses reverse Monday’s losses.
- Global benchmarks benefit from lower energy prices, JGBs outperform following a solid 10yr auction.
- DXY muted, EUR directionless as EZ CPI surpasses 3%.
- Crude (Brent -1.4%) falls over renewed hopes of an Iran resolution.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTs Job Openings (Apr), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, New Zealand Export/Import Prices (Q1), NBP Policy Announcement (Jun). Speakers include Fed’s Hammack, BoE’s Bailey & Greene, ECB’s Vujcic. Earnings from Dollar General, Palo Alto & ULTA Beauty.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) start Tuesday’s trade with broad gains after raised hopes of an imminent US-Iran deal. US President Trump said negotiations with Tehran were continuing and signalled expectations of a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen Hormuz “over the next week”. Furthermore, Trump also claimed Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to stop shooting, which further weighed on energy prices and boosted the global risk tone.
- European sectors highlight the positive bias. Technology (+2.7%) tops the sector pile, with Basic Resources (+2.2%) following closely behind as metals surge amid worries of a tighter global supply. Energy (-0.7%), Healthcare (-0.6%) and Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-0.4%) are the only sectors printing modest losses.
- US equity futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.2%) trade with very modest losses as prices continue to grind to new ATHs daily.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- G10s are mixed but mostly stronger against the Buck as energy benchmarks pull back alongside more constructive Gulf headlines.
- The Buck trades a touch lower after pressure seen in the early European morning attempted to push the Dollar index to the 99.00 level. Markets are generally more risk-on after headlines overnight were more constructive than those seen on Monday. See 08:20 BST headline for geopolitical specifics. US domestic newsflow has been light. Today sees the release of JOLTS job openings. The figure is expected to be broadly unchanged from the March figure. DXY trades 0.1% lower within a 99.05-9922 range.
- EUR is a touch firmer against the weaker Buck in a reaction you would expect to see in response to the recent geopolitical headlines. The EZ Inflation report held a hawkish skew, with the energy component and Services jumping. The single currency was little moved on the report, given it ultimately plays in favour of a hike in June, which is ultimately fully priced in.
- JPY is incrementally lower vs the USD. Japan saw strong demand at its 10yr auction overnight, where demand rose beyond the 12-month average despite the BoJ slated to hike rates in two weeks. JPY saw modest strength on the results, though it proved fleeting with USD/JPY rangebound given the various fiscal/Terms of Trade headwinds. In a note this morning, ING wrote “The risk of new intervention does look a bit underpriced, considering Japanese authorities have remained rather hawkish with their intervention narrative.” Katayama was on the wires overnight, she said: “Closely coordinating with the US on FX.”
FIXED INCOME
- Global fixed benchmarks are stronger across the board, facilitated by a pullback in energy prices after some positive-leaning geopolitical newsflow. In brief, President Trump suggested that talks with Iran are continuing at a rapid pace, adding that he thinks an agreement will be made with Iran to extend the ceasefire over the next week.
- As for price action, USTs benefit from the lower energy prices this morning, with gains of c. 8 ticks at pixel time; currently holds at the upper end of a 109-22 to 109-30 range (vs Monday’s trough of 109-09+). From a yield perspective, rates at the belly of the curve are underperforming vs short-dated rates, signalling that traders remain uncertain about near-term geopolitical progress. The 10yr (4.43%) now resides back towards recent troughs, and another leg lower could see a test of the low from 12 May at 4.41%. Focus ahead turns to US JOLTS.
- Bunds (+50 ticks) and Gilts (+60 ticks) also extend higher, following the geopolitical risk tone. For the EZ specifically, a hawkish inflation report out of the EZ (Services at 3.5% from 3.00%, and Core Y/Y topped expectations), led to some mild pressure in German paper.
- JGBs (+92 ticks) are outperforming vs peer, boosted by the geopolitical tone and a solid 10yr Japanese auction. Whilst the b/c and avg. yield were not so good, the lowest accepted price fell to 98.01 (prev. 98.86), indicating some solid demand for the paper. The 10yr knee-jerked higher following the sale, before then gradually moving higher as other investors also bought debt. As it stands, the 10yr (2.57%) now resides at levels not seen since 13 May 2026.
- Germany sells EUR 3.857bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.58x (prev. 1.4x), average yield 2.59% (prev. 2.70%), retention 22.86% (prev. 22.8%).
- UK sells GBP 3.25bln 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt: b/c 3.63x, average yield 4.975%, tail 0.2bps.
- Japan sells JPY 1.98tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 3.53x (prev. 3.90x, 12-month avg. 3.35x), average yield 2.649% (prev. 2.540%).
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures are subdued this European morning as the complex takes a breather from yesterday’s surge, with upside capped by constructive comments from US President Trump. To recap, US President Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace and that he believes an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within the next week. That being said, it was reported this morning that Iran’s final text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet; Mehr News reported, citing sources. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official said renewed war with the US is ‘inevitable’, Arab News reported, citing state TV. Elsewhere, Lebanon emerged as a major issue, with Iran warning that continued Israeli actions could impact negotiations.
- WTI and Brent front-month futures trade softer by some 2% and 1.8% respectively, at the time of writing after the benchmarks settled higher by USD 4.80/bbl and USD 3.86/bbl, respectively, on Monday. Benchmarks have held a negative bias throughout the European morning. WTI Jul resides towards the bottom end of a USD 90.15-92.65/bbl range, Brent Aug trades in a USD 90.66-92.85/bbl range. Dutch TTF trades -2.5% within the recent EUR 47-48/MWh range.
- Spot gold is slightly firmer as the USD remains subdued by oil prices, with the yellow metal in a USD 4,463-4,541/oz range, within yesterday’s USD 4,447-4,546/oz range. Spot silver similarly rebounds but tops yesterday’s high (USD 76.29/oz) to currently trade towards the top end of a USD 74.48-76.93/oz range.
- Base metals are firmer across the board amid the softer USD and softer oil prices, coupled with a firm performance across Chinese markets overnight. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13,821.53-13,992.22/t range at the time of writing.
- The IEA’s oil division chief said oil supplies from the US, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela have exceeded expectations, but output from the Americas can only marginally offset supplies lost East of Suez.
- UAE’s ADNOC executive said China’s demand is starting to come back, and “teapot” refineries are showing appetite.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- White House released a Fact Sheet stating President Trump signed a Proclamation adjusting certain metals tariffs to more effectively address national security threats and spur investment. The Proclamation adjusts the tariffs on agricultural equipment, like combines and harvesters, as well as certain other equipment, from 25% to 15%, while it expands the category of industrial equipment subject to a 15% tariff to include mobile industrial equipment, like bulldozers and forklifts, when imported from trade deal countries that are entitled to such treatment. It also encourages foreign companies to use more US steel and aluminium by allowing them to qualify for a 10% duty rate if their capital equipment includes at least 85% US melted and poured or smelted and cast steel or aluminium by weight.
- US Trade Representative said they determined that Brazil has performed unreasonable acts under Section 301 and that the acts are actionable, while the US continues to engage with Brazil to seek a resolution, and the US will hold a hearing about proposed action on June 6th. USTR later proposed to impose tariffs of 25% on all imports from Brazil, except for goods that are subject to Section 232 national security tariffs.
- European Parliament’s Trade Committee voted in favour of legislation to remove EU duties on several US goods imports.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- EU is weighing fiscal flexibility for energy costs, while the proposal would allow countries budgetary leeway to cushion energy costs, according to Bloomberg.
- US is in talks to expand nuclear weapon deployments in Europe, according to FT.
- UK Labour leader candidate Andy Burnham said he rules out an early General Election if he is elected to replace PM Starmer, Bloomberg reported citing his spokesperson.
- UK’s Ofgem is seeking views on draft guidance to support proportionate supply chain security risk management in the downstream gas and electricity sector.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash (May) Y/Y 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3%, Low. 3%, High. 3.5%); Services 3.5% (prev. 3.00%).
- EU Inflation Rate MoM Flash (May) M/M 0.1% (Prev. 1%).
- EU Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (May) Y/Y 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.2%, Low. 2.2%, High. 2.6%).
- EU Core Inflation Rate M/M 0.2% (Prev. 0.90%).
- UK Mortgage Approvals (Apr) 65.94K vs Exp. 62K (Prev. 63.53K).
- UK BoE Consumer Credit (Apr) 1.859B (Prev. 1.895B).
CENTRAL BANKS
- ECB’s Rehn says a June rate move would be an insurance hike and that inflation expectations remain unanchored.
- ECB’s Simkus said consumer short-term inflation expectations are similar to 2022 and that it is important to react in a timely manner to inflation.
- Rabobank maintains its forecast for a 25bps ECB rate hike next week; expects the ECB to raise rates by another 25bps, likely in September.
- RBA’s Harper said stronger than expected domestic demand and re-emergence of capacity constraints have widened the output gap again, and markets are now anticipating that the bank would have to address this, while he added that persistent inflation is a genuine concern and market measures of inflation have gone up, which is a worry.
- Nikkei reported that the BoJ is continuing to call for a June hike, though the government is opting for a “wait-and-see” approach given the risks of risking inflation and a weaker JPY.
- BoJ summary of meeting with investors: one participant said the need for further tapering of bond purchases is not high; participant said there is no need for further tapering of bond buying. One participant said the BoJ should act nimbly, such as conducting emergency bond-buying operations as needed when the bond market destabilises.
GEOPOLITICS
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week, while he also stated that a peace agreement with Iran could be better than a military victory. Trump also stated that it’s not simple for both sides, but they’re getting what they need to get and that he still has to get a few more points.
- US President Trump said he had a very productive call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and that there will be no troops going to Beirut, while he added that Hezbollah agreed that all shooting will stop.
- US President Trump reportedly lashed out at Israeli PM Netanyahu over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon in an expletive-laden call on Monday, according to Axios, citing two US officials and a source briefed on the call.
- Iran’s final text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet, Mehr News reported citing sources.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said talks will halt if Israeli actions persist in Lebanon, and warned that Iran will confront Israel if atrocities in Lebanon continue.
- A senior Iranian official said a renewed war with US ‘inevitable’, Arab News reported citing state TV.
- Iran’s IRGC reported targeting a US-owned commercial vessel with a cruise missile, according to Al Jazeera.
- Iran’s IRGC said 24 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours after obtaining permission from Iran, Nour News reported.
- “A number of vessel owners are saying that they are no longer receiving IRGC threats via the radio, which wasn’t the case a few weeks back. But still the confidence level in crossing is low”, Kpler’s Bakr posted.
- Lebanon officials said Hezbollah and Israel agreed to the US proposal for mutual cessation of hostilities. Israel will stop strikes on Beirut southern suburbs under the proposed agreement, Press TV reported.
- Israeli airstrikes target sites in southern Lebanon, Sky News Arabia reported.
- Source close to Yemen’s Houthis emphasised they will not allow Lebanon to be attacked and Hezbollah to fight alone, according to SNN.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia’s Kremlin said systematic strikes against Ukrainian military infrastructure are being carried out, however reiterated that it is ready to achieve its aims in Ukraine through diplomacy.
- Explosions were reported in Kyiv, and a witness said the city sustained a large-scale air bombardment, while Ukraine’s air force said it detected missiles headed towards the Sumy region and Kyiv, as well as UAVs that were headed towards Zaporizhzhia from the south.
- Air raid sirens were activated in Ukraine’s Kyiv, while authorities urged residents to seek shelter.
- Ukraine’s military said it has struck Russia’s Ilsky oil refinery (132k-138k BPD).
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin slipped below USD 70k for the first time in nearly two months following Strategy’s (MSTR) USD 2.5mln token sale.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside, where the major indices ultimately finished mostly higher amid tech strength and mixed geopolitical updates.
- ASX 200 was subdued amid weakness in real estate, financials and defensives, while sentiment was also not helped by a slew of mostly weaker-than-expected data releases.
- Nikkei 225 slipped after printing a new all-time high at the open with very few fresh catalysts from Japan, and as the recent mixed geopolitical headlines provide an opportunity to book profits.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mixed picture with the mainland flat, while the Hong Kong benchmark was led higher by strength in the big tech names, with Meituan underpinned post-earnings, while Tencent, Alibaba, Lenovo, Kuaishou, SMIC and JD were all among the top performers.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama refrained from commenting on FX intervention and current FX levels, while she said volatility in oil markets remain and prepared to take appropriate action. Closely coordinating with the US on Forex, and both sides are closely monitoring markets.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- South Korean Inflation Rate YoY (May) Y/Y 3.1% (Prev. 2.6%).
- South Korean Inflation Rate MoM (May) M/M 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%).
1 c) Asian opening report
Europe primed for a firmer open amid pullback in Crude benchmarks; JOLTS due – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 02:12 AM
- US President Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace; he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US bears direct responsibility for violations of the ceasefire with Iran and by Israel in Lebanon, adding that a violation on one front was equal to violations on all fronts.
- The US is in talks to expand nuclear weapon deployments in Europe, according to the FT.
- Crude futures gradually pulled back overnight following the prior day’s rally; fixed income caught a bid overnight.
- APAC stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (May), JOLTs Job Openings (Apr), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, New Zealand Export/Import Prices (Q1), NBP Policy Announcement (Jun). Speakers include Fed’s Kashkari & Hammack, BoE’s Bailey & Greene, ECB’s Vujcic. Supply from the UK & Germany. Earnings from Dollar General, Palo Alto & ULTA Beauty.
SNAPSHOT
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace.
- US President Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week, while he also stated that a peace agreement with Iran could be better than a military victory. Trump also stated that it’s not simple for both sides, but they’re getting what they need to get and that he still has to get a few more points.
- US President Trump told NBC News that he had not heard from Iran regarding reports that Tehran was suspending talks and said, “I think we’ve been talking too much if you want to know the truth, going silent would be very good,” while adding that the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would remain in place and that he could “wait as long as they want” because “they’re losing a fortune.”
- US President Trump told CNBC that he did not care if negotiations with Iran were over and said he intended to ask Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu what was happening with Lebanon. He also said he was not concerned about oil prices after Iranian state media reported that Tehran was vowing to “completely block” the Strait of Hormuz and halt negotiations, adding that “I think the oil will be dropping like a rock in the very near, you know, the very near distance.”
- US President Trump said he had a very productive call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and that there will be no troops going to Beirut, while he added that Hezbollah agreed that all shooting will stop.
- US President Trump posted that he asked Israeli PM Netanyahu not to go into a major raid of Beirut, and that Netanyahu turned his troops around, while Trump thanked ‘Bibi’ and said he also had a conversation with representatives of the leaders of Hezbollah. Trump added that they agreed to stop shooting at Israel, and its soldiers, while Israel agreed to stop shooting at them.
- US President Trump reportedly lashed out at Israeli PM Netanyahu over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon in an expletive-laden call on Monday, according to Axios, citing two US officials and a source briefed on the call.
- A US source told Al Hadath that the Lebanese position had succeeded in convincing Israel not to expand the military escalation, while Washington was working to prevent the collapse of the negotiation track it is leading between Lebanon and Israel. The escalation had reportedly threatened a fourth round of Lebanese-Israeli talks scheduled for Tuesday, while negotiations were said to have moved from “preliminary contacts” to “security arrangements.”
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US bears direct responsibility for violations of the ceasefire with Iran and for ceasefire violations committed by Israel in Lebanon, adding that a violation on one front was equal to violations on all fronts. The ministry said Iran would continue using all of its capabilities and exercise its right to self-defence whenever necessary.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said talks will halt if Israeli actions persist in Lebanon, and warned that Iran will confront Israel if atrocities in Lebanon continue.
- Advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mohsen Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz was under Iran’s management and that Tehran would not allow the blockade to continue, while he warned Iran would not tolerate increased tensions in Lebanon and said the patience of Iran’s armed forces had limits.
- IRGC force commander said Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza will lead the resistance axis to ‘equate the traffic situation of the Bab El Mandeb Strait with the Strait of Hormuz’, according to state media.
- Iran’s Central Military Command warned residents in northern Israel to evacuate to avoid harm if Israel carried out attacks on Beirut.
- Iran’s IRGC reported targeting a US-owned commercial vessel with a cruise missile, according to Al Jazeera.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry announced that Iran had called for Pakistan’s continued mediation efforts to de-escalate the situation and support the ceasefire, according to ILNA.
- Israel planned a major strike in Beirut’s Dahieh district, although the operation was postponed at the last moment following US intervention, according to Kann News.
- Israeli army will not carry out attacks in Beirut and will not withdraw from its current positions, according to Al Araby reports citing the official broadcasting authority.
- Hezbollah lawmaker said they support a full ceasefire on all Lebanese territory, and a full ceasefire would be a precursor to an Israeli troop withdrawal from all Lebanese territory.
- Hezbollah will not stop targeting northern Israel following Israeli threats on Monday to bomb Beirut’s southern suburbs if attacks continued, AFP reported, citing a source close to Hezbollah.
- Source close to Yemen’s Houthis emphasised they will not allow Lebanon to be attacked and Hezbollah to fight alone, according to SNN.
- UN Secretary-General Guterres proposed to the UN Security Council the establishment of a new force to replace the UNIFIL, peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, according to i24’s Amichai Stein.
- Syrian local sources reported that Israeli troops with more than 10 military vehicles entered one of the villages in Al-Quneitra province in southern Syria, according to Tasnim.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ultimately closed mostly higher on Monday, although gains were concentrated in large-cap tech, while the Russell 2000 underperformed and broader sector breadth remained weak outside of Technology and Energy, with tech supported by strength in mega-cap names NVIDIA and Microsoft after the companies unveiled a new Windows AI superchip, which also lifted related names including Dell, HP and Arm. Energy outperformed following a raft of geopolitical headlines, with the key update coming from Tasnim, which reported that Iran had halted message exchanges with the US via mediators and was threatening to completely block both the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Strait of Hormuz. Nonetheless, sentiment improved through the afternoon as subsequent headlines were more constructive, namely, Trump announcing a Hezbollah/Israel ceasefire, which saw crude prices pull back from peaks, although both benchmarks still settled firmly higher.
- SPX +0.26% at 7,600, NDX +0.60% at 30,514, DJI +0.09% at 51,084, RUT -0.47% at 2,906.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- White House released a Fact Sheet stating President Trump signed a Proclamation adjusting certain metals tariffs to more effectively address national security threats and spur investment. The Proclamation adjusts the tariffs on agricultural equipment, like combines and harvesters, as well as certain other equipment, from 25% to 15%, while it expands the category of industrial equipment subject to a 15% tariff to include mobile industrial equipment, like bulldozers and forklifts, when imported from trade deal countries that are entitled to such treatment. It also encourages foreign companies to use more US steel and aluminium by allowing them to qualify for a 10% duty rate if their capital equipment includes at least 85% US melted and poured or smelted and cast steel or aluminium by weight.
- US Trade Representative said they determined that Brazil has performed unreasonable acts under Section 301 and that the acts are actionable, while the US continues to engage with Brazil to seek a resolution, and the US will hold a hearing about proposed action on June 6th. USTR later proposed to impose tariffs of 25% on all imports from Brazil, except for goods that are subject to Section 232 national security tariffs.
- Chinese entities’ procurement records showed that Chinese labs with ties to the military were seeking NVIDIA (NVDA) chips, according to Bloomberg.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump dropped the USD 1.8bln anti-weaponisation fund following Republican backlash, according to FT.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside, where the major indices ultimately finished mostly higher amid tech strength and mixed geopolitical updates.
- ASX 200 was subdued amid weakness in real estate, financials and defencives, while sentiment was also not helped by a slew of mostly weaker-than-expected data releases.
- Nikkei 225 slipped after printing a new all-time high at the open with very few fresh catalysts from Japan, and as the recent mixed geopolitical headlines provide an opportunity to book profits.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mixed picture with the mainland flat, while the Hong Kong benchmark was led higher by strength in the big tech names, with Meituan underpinned post-earnings, while Tencent, Alibaba, Lenovo, Kuaishou, SMIC and JD were all among the top performers.
- US equity futures were lacklustre following recent mixed geopolitical messaging.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Monday.
FX
- DXY dollar struggled for direction overnight after strengthening yesterday on higher oil prices and initial punchy geopolitical rhetoric, but did pare some of the moves as later geopolitical updates were more encouraging. Nonetheless, price action has since quietened overnight with muted reaction seen to Trump adjusting certain metals tariffs to more effectively address national security threats and spur investment.
- EUR/USD traded sideways following a partial rebound from support near the 1.1600 level, and as EU CPI looms.
- GBP/USD paused overnight after the recent whipsawing and with trade confined within the 1.3400 handle.
- USD/JPY retained a firm footing at the 159.00 level, which keeps the door open for questions on intervention, although Japanese Finance Minister Katayama refrained from commenting on FX intervention and current FX level, while she stated that changes to their FX warning phrases would risk confusing markets and reiterated that they are closely coordinating with the US on FX.
- Antipodeans were contained amid the mixed risk appetite and with little reaction seen to a slew of data from Australia, which mostly missed expectations, including Current Account, Net Exports Contribution, Building Approvals and Company Profits.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8187 vs exp. 6.7720 (prev. 6.8167).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures continued to gradually rebound after the prior day’s bear flattening, which had been spurred by a rally in oil, while the pullback in yields followed the improvement in geopolitical rhetoric, including the announcement of a partial ceasefire in Lebanon.
- Bund futures added to their gains after clawing back recent losses and returning to above the 126.00 level, while participants await EU CPI data and a looming EUR 5bln Schatz issuance.
- 10yr JGB futures mirrored the recovery in global peers and rose above the 129.00 level with further upside seen in the aftermath of the 10yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures gradually pulled back overnight following the prior day’s rally, which was spurred by Iran’s threats to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait and as initial reports stated Iran was stopping exchanging texts with the US. Nonetheless, prices eased back from Monday’s best levels as later reports were more encouraging, in which Trump announced that talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace and that Hezbollah agreed to a reciprocal halt of attacks on Israel, while it was also reported that Israel postponed a planned major strike in Beirut after US intervention and with Trump said to have lashed out in a call with Israeli PM Netanyahu regarding the escalation in Lebanon.
- Spot gold was rangebound for most of the session after recent declines, although it eventually edged higher and returned to above the USD 4,500/oz level.
- Copper futures lacked conviction after recent sideways trade and amid the mixed risk appetite.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin fell beneath the USD 71,000 level, but has gradually clawed back most of the losses.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- RBA’s Harper said stronger than expected domestic demand and re-emergence of capacity constraints have widened the output gap again, and markets are now anticipating that the bank would have to address this, while he added that persistent inflation is a genuine concern and market measures of inflation have gone up, which is a worry.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Current Account (Q1) -27.1B vs Exp. -23.2B (Prev. -21.1B)
- Australian Net Exports Contribution to GDP (Q1) -0.8% vs Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -0.1%)
- Australian Building Permits MM (Apr P) -3.4% vs Exp. -2.3% (Prev. -10.5%)
- Australian Building Permits YY (Apr P) 10.2% (Prev. 9.0%)
- Australian Company Gross Profits QQ (Q1) -1.3% vs Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 5.8%)
- Australian Business Inventories QQ (Q1) 0.5% vs Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian President Putin said Ukrainian attacks in Luhansk and the southern Kherson region show Kyiv is opening a new page in a series of attacks.
- Russian President Putin was reportedly told by senior officials that the war in Ukraine was becoming unaffordable, in what Bloomberg described as the clearest sign yet of internal divisions in Moscow since the start of the full-scale invasion.
- Explosions were reported in Kyiv, and a witness said the city sustained a large-scale air bombardment, while Ukraine’s air force said it detected missiles headed towards the Sumy region and Kyiv, as well as UAVs that were headed towards Zaporizhzhia from the south.
- Ukrainian official Budanov said Ukraine expects a visit by Trump’s envoys and that Ukraine is ready to accept the frontline status quo with Russia, while it will not give up Donbas to Russia.
OTHER
- US is in talks to expand nuclear weapon deployments in Europe, according to the FT.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- EU is weighing fiscal flexibility for energy costs, while the proposal would allow countries budgetary leeway to cushion energy costs, according to Bloomberg.
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/USA
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK/CANADA
Net Zero & Statism Deliver Stagnation: How Interventionism Undermined Growth In The UK & Canada
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 06:30 AM
Governments are terrible at picking winners and even worse at choosing losers. Net zero and interventionist “Keynesian” policies in Canada and the UK have proven that government intervention has created a worse outcome than anyone would have expected. The result is higher costs, distorted incentives, and weakened productivity growth, with increased dependency on fossil fuels to attend to peak demand, exactly what Austrian economists predicted.
What has been sold as a recipe for prosperity and “green growth” has in practice eroded affordability while failing to deliver stronger, sustainable expansion.
It is not surprising to see that the world’s examples of green interventionism, the UK and Canada, have become economic failures. Years ago, some argued that these policies needed time to prove their success. Now, it is not even debatable that the stagnation and recession in the UK and Canada are self-inflicted.
Net zero in Canada and the UK is not a single policy but an entire regime of targets, regulations, limits, subsidies, and new bureaucratic requirements.
The Canadian federal plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 combines rising carbon taxes, prescriptive regulations, technology mandates, and public investment schemes intended to steer capital away from fossil fuels and into politically selected “green” projects.
In the UK, the government’s “Net Zero Growth Plan” is also built on regulatory limits, spending commitments, and industrial policy designed to phase out conventional energy and reshape entire sectors through top-down planning.
This is a classic example of interventionism. The state attempts to override market price signals and entrepreneurial judgment to engineer a politically preferred energy and industrial structure and achieves the opposite of what it wants to deliver. Rather than relying on decentralized knowledge, competition, technology, and creative destruction, dispersed among millions of consumers and firms, net zero regimes assume that politicians and regulators know exactly which technologies should win, what the “right” energy mix ought to be, and how fast the transition should occur.
In an open market, prices and profits coordinate production across time, and entrepreneurs interpret prices as signals about real scarcities and consumer preferences. However, net-zero policies deliberately tamper with these signals. Carbon taxes, subsidies, and regulatory mandates change relative prices not because underlying preferences or scarcities changed but because policymakers decided that certain activities should be penalized and others subsidized. All this is justified by a completely ideological and unreliable assumption of externality costs, where governments present themselves as the ones that know precisely what those alleged externality costs are and try to push a pricing signal imposed through ideology, creating enormous distortions that, ultimately, end benefiting the “old” and “loser” industries.
Governments are not worried about the failure of these policies. Bureaucrats always believe that interventionism did not work because there was not enough of it. Therefore, they impose additional burdens and regulations while portraying themselves as the solution to the inflation and stagnation problems they have caused.
In both Canada and the UK, this has pushed vast amounts of capital into projects that are unprofitable and can only subsist due to policy support rather than genuine market demand. “Green industrial strategies” crowd out investment in other sectors, especially in traditional energy and manufacturing, even when those sectors still deliver higher value at lower cost to consumers. Austrian theory predicts that politicized credit and subsidies will generate malinvestment: projects that look viable under distorted interest rates and prices but which fail to cover their costs once the policy support is withdrawn or the fiscal burden becomes unsustainable.
Canadian long-run productivity growth has fallen from annual rates above 3% in the postwar decades to less than 1% since 2000, despite repeated waves of policy activism and “pro-productivity” rhetoric. Chronic underinvestment in business capital and weak technological progress as key drivers of this decline, suggesting that the policy mix has not created an environment for genuine, bottom-up innovation. The more that investment decisions depend on regulatory favor and subsidy access, the less they depend on entrepreneurial assessment of consumer wants and long-term profitability.
Net zero has also harmed affordability in exactly the way Austrian economists would expect when governments interfere with relative prices. Carbon pricing, renewable mandates, and restrictions on fossil-fuel projects increase energy costs directly by making reliable sources of power more expensive or scarce. These higher input costs then cascade through the economy to transport, food, housing, and manufactured goods, eroding real wages and living standards.
In both Canada and the UK, affordability has become a central political issue. Households face higher utility bills, fuel costs, and housing expenses, while governments insist that the transition is “pro-growth” and “pro-jobs.” From an Austrian viewpoint, this contradiction is unsurprising: when the state deliberately raises the cost of dominant energy sources and limits investment in efficient, market-chosen technologies, the outcome is necessarily higher prices and reduced real income for consumers, especially for low- and middle-income households.
The C.D. Howe Institute has calculated the costs of justifying public “stimulus” projects based on their benefits, showing that a typical public-services stimulus in Canada needs to create at least 73 cents in benefits for every dollar spent, while many infrastructure projects must improve productivity by at least 61 cents per dollar just to be socially acceptable. This illustrates how difficult it is for discretionary fiscal programs to deliver genuine, net productivity gains, especially when they are designed around political objectives like net zero rather than around consumer demand.
Loose money, loose budgets, weak growth
Energy policy is just one aspect of the overall narrative. Canada and the UK have also pursued aggressively expansionary fiscal and monetary policies recently, justified in the language of Keynesian stabilization and “stimulus.” Central banks slashed interest rates and expanded their balance sheets, while governments ran large deficits to finance transfer programs, public investment packages, and targeted subsidies.
Such policies create an artificial boom by pushing interest rates below their market level, encouraging borrowing and investment that are not backed by genuine savings. When combined with interventionist climate and industrial policies, the result is a double distortion: not only is the cost of capital suppressed by central banks, but its allocation is further skewed by political targets and bureaucratic criteria.
The persistent weakness of productivity growth in both countries reflects the outcome. Despite waves of stimulus and intervention, neither Canada nor the UK has returned to the trend growth rates of earlier decades. Research on why productivity is stuck in advanced economies shows that slow business investment, poor use of resources, and uncertain policies are major problems—exactly what Austrian theory warns about when governments try to control demand and manage entire industries.
At the same time, the loose monetary and fiscal stance has fueled asset inflation and housing booms, worsening affordability while doing little to raise real wages in line with living expenses. For Austrians, this pattern is predictable: credit expansion inflates asset prices and encourages leverage, while deficit spending diverts resources from productive private activity toward politically selected uses, without solving underlying structural obstacles to innovation and entrepreneurship.
The “dynamics of interventionism” described by Austrian scholars such as Frank Shostak and Huerta de Soto captures what is now playing out in Canada and the UK. Initial interventions—carbon pricing, subsidies, ultra-loose money—create side effects such as higher energy costs, misallocated capital, and inflationary pressures. Rather than rolling back the original policies, governments respond with further interventions: price caps, windfall taxes, rent controls, targeted transfers, and new stimulus packages.
More layers mean more complexity, uncertainty, and lobbying, which sucks talent and capital out of productive activity and into regulatory arbitrage and rent-seeking. In the end, the private sector becomes less about serving consumers and more about navigating the policy maze, bidding for subsidies, and changing business models based on political risk, not market signals.
This process tends to push mixed economies toward either more radical intervention and taxation, because the accumulating distortions and contradictions become unsustainable. Rising public debt, chronic productivity stagnation, and growing discontent over affordability are all signs that the current policy mix in Canada and the UK is reaching such a breaking point.
An Austrian approach to the problems of growth, productivity, and affordability in Canada and the UK would start from the opposite principle: radically reduce the role of the state in credit allocation, industrial planning, and energy choices. The goal would be to restore genuine price discovery in interest rates, energy markets, and capital allocation, rather than using central banks and fiscal policy to engineer demand and support politically favored sectors.
That would require ending the “permanent emergency” stance in monetary policy and allowing interest rates to reflect real-time preferences and savings, rather than central-bank discretion; rolling back net zero mandates, technology bans, and targeted subsidies allow entrepreneurs and consumers to decide which energy sources and technologies best serve their needs at the lowest cost; and moving from government spending based on political choices to a system with clear rules and less government involvement that safeguards property rights, upholds contracts, and maintains low and steady taxes and regulations.
Under such a regime, capital would no longer be herded into fashionable, subsidy-dependent projects. Instead, entrepreneurs would once again be guided by undistorted profit and loss, discovering the production structures that genuinely align with consumer preferences and technological realities. Over time, such an approach is the only path consistent with higher productivity, faster real wage growth, and true improvements in affordability.
In short, the disappointing growth and deteriorating affordability in Canada and the UK are not market failures; they are the predictable result of layering net zero interventionism on top of already inflationary, deficit-driven macro policy. The solution is not more of the same but a decisive shift back toward sound money, fiscal restraint, and genuine economic freedom.
end
EUROPE/USA/OIL
Europe Has “Serious, Really Serious Problems” If US Cuts Oil Exports, Currie
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 09:00 AM
Last night, the Carlyle Group’s Jeff Currie and Veriten’s Arjun Murti joined Real Vision’s Ash Bennington for a ZeroHedge Debate on what the oil market is getting wrong.
Surprise surprise… the EU is not looking good. But the U.S. may be in trouble too. Currie doubled down on his reserves-to-run-dry-by-July call.
They each gave their outlook on structural supply constraints that existed before the Hormuz debacle, whether the latest ‘ceasefire’ can be trusted, and where the price is headed and how quickly it’s headed there. Despite signs of relief in the Mid-East, many signs still read bullish oil (and thus bearish cost of living).
Here were the highlights for those short on time:
Currie’s July 4th Doomer Call
Currie on his recent warning that global oil inventories could run into serious shortages as early as July:
“There’s a misnomer that the eight billion barrels of oil that you see in storage around the world is all usable,” he said, noting that fuel is not homogenous (jet, diesel, gasoline, etc.) and that 8 billion is not actually that much… “Every single energy analyst says sometime in that July, August is when you get into pretty serious problems.”
The current calm in prices, Currie said, reflects seasonal demand weakness rather than a genuine easing of supply constraints. “Why you haven’t seen this? We’re in the seasonal low of demand,” he explained. “April and May it goes down like this, and then June it just goes straight up five million barrels a day.”
Murti agreed that shortages are likely to emerge region by region and product by product… where one country runs out of jet fuel, another gasoline. He added that developing Asia appears particularly vulnerable while Europe remains heavily exposed after years of energy underinvestment.
Asked how long it takes for shortages to be felt once inventories are exhausted:
“When you’re out of something, it’s it. That’s it. It’s over… it’s instantaneous.”
Turns out Exxon agrees with Jeff…
Which Countries Will Feel The Most Pain?
According to Murti: China looks good, rest of Asia… not so much. EU not great. America too complacent but likely OK.
“Europe might be able to avoid shortage by the fact that they’re still rich enough to outbid those less fortunate Asian countries for the cargoes that you have… blase attitude on the part of Americans, American investors, even American politicians, about how serious of an issue this is… we’re not going to face shortages like the 70s, but go tell that to the people of you know Malaysia and Pakistan.”
According to Currie: Asia will be fine thanks to China “taking care of its neighbors” but Europe is screwed.
“Europe is the one that’s the most exposed, and the only reason they don’t have problems is that the United States is exporting everything they have to Europe right now…” And while China has been building up inventory, “Europe, on the other hand, didn’t invest in any brown. They got serious problems, really serious, problems when the Americans don’t export to them.”
Check out the full discussion below, on YouTube, or listen on Spotify.
END
EUROPE/INFLATION
Euro Area Inflation Tops 3.0% For First Time Since 2023, Cementing ECB Rate Hike
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 12:40 PM
Euro Area inflation topped 3% for the first time since September 2023, further cementing expectations for a rate hike when the ECB meets next week.
Consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year ago in May, and up from 3% the previous month, in line expectations. But core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, jumped more than anticipated to 2.5% (technically 2.55%), while the closely watched services gauge jumped to 3.5%, the highest since last November, and non-energy industrial goods inflation printing at 0.87%YoY.
Energy inflation increased to 10.9%YoY, while food, alcohol and tobacco inflation fell to 1.97%YoY, notably below the weak 2.2%YoY Goldman was expecting.
“The acceleration of headline and core inflation in May cements the case for a 25 basis-point rate increase from the ECB next week. Those moves have been driven by services prices, which have probably been pushed up by pass-through from oil prices. That may be used by the hawks on the Governing Council to argue broad-based inflation requires a follow-up move in September” said Bloomberg economist David Powell.
Incorporating the May flash release into the Euro area inflation path, but also accounting for the potential Easter-related nature of the outsized move in services which should not be fully persistent, Goldman’s medium-term path continues to show core inflation at a weak 2.5%yoy in 2026, peaking at 2.7%yoy in 2027Q2 before gradually declining to 2.0%yoy in 2028Q4, above the ECB staff March projections. As for headline inflation, Goldman expects it to peak at 3.4%YoY in Q4, using the bank’s latest baseline path for gas and oil prices.
The latest hot inflation print has cemented the ECB’s first rate hike since September 2023 on June 11, with officials appearing to conclude that they can no longer wait to respond to the fallout from the Middle East conflict. ECB rate hike odds are now at 98% on Polymarket. They’re worried chiefly about workers demanding steep pay rises and firms boosting selling prices, viewing such consequences as probably now inevitable as the war drags on.
Most policymakers, however, remain cautious on the path beyond June according to Bloomberg, as growth in the region’s 21-nation economy also takes a hit. Business activity shrank in May at the quickest pace since 2023.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, viewed as the most hawkish Governing Council member, suggested Monday that it’s too early to specify how many rate increases may be needed. Lithuania’s Gediminas Simkus has said a second move after June “is more likely than not,” though it’s unclear when.
“It’s quite important to react in a timely manner to this emerging inflationary environment so we can prevent a possible acceleration of inflation and the inflationary spiral, prevent it at its very beginning with the least possible impact on the economy,” Simkus said Tuesday in Vilnius.
His Finnish counterpart Olli Rehn described inflation expectations as still anchored so far, but said action is needed this month to keep prices under control. “While inflation risks have increased, a rate increase in June would be an insurance one, but not due to entrenched inflationary pressures,” he said in a speech.
Today’s CPI print should not have been a major surprise: data last week showed inflation gathering pace in three of the bloc’s biggest member states, and remaining well above the ECB’s 2% target in all of them. Propelled by the war-induced surge in energy costs, May readings for France, Italy and Spain quickened to 2.8%, 3.3% and 3.6%, while the headline number for Germany moderated to 2.7%.
NORWAY
Potential Offshore Strike In Norway Could Add Fresh Uncertainty To Global Energy Markets As Wage Talks Collapse
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 03:30 AM
By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com
A potential strike over wages could threaten smooth operations offshore Norway, Western Europe’s top oil and gas producer, at a time when the world is scrambling for oil and gas supply amid the Middle East crisis.
Almost 8% of oil and gas workers offshore Norway could go on a strike from June 5 if trade union negotiations with industry fail to reach an agreement in a government-brokered mediation process, according to data from the labor unions on Monday.
More than 600 workers out of about 8,100 in total offshore Norway could begin a strike later this week, Reuters reported on Monday, citing the office of the government-appointed mediator.
Negotiations between the offshore industry and the workers organized in the Styrke, Lederne, and Safe trade unions continue.
At the end of last week, talks between Offshore Norway, which represents the oil industry in the wage talks, and the unions broke down.
Offshore Norway and the trade union Styrke held negotiations on May 27 on the onshore base agreements, which cover approximately 875 employees at supply bases along the Norwegian coast. But they failed to reach agreement on a new collective agreement for supply base employees.
“By evening, the parties remained too far apart, and the negotiations ended in a breakdown,” Offshore Norway said last Thursday, citing disagreements over advance payment of sickness benefits, parental benefits, and care benefits.
While talks continue, the possibility of a strike is looming over the oil and gas operations offshore Norway. It’s not clear how a strike would affect Norway’s oil and gas output, if at all.
Norway produces more than 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with oil and gas nearly equally divided at 2 million boepd each. Norway is shipping crude as far as Asia, which struggles without a large part of the Middle Eastern supply. Norway is also Europe’s single biggest gas supplier, having replaced Russia in 2022 when Putin invaded Ukraine.
END
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN//MONDAY EVENING
Shaky Lebanon Ceasefire Reached As Trump Says Iran Talks Back On; Tehran Claims Attack On US Container Ship
Monday, Jun 01, 2026 – 04:50 PM
Summary
- Trump has announced the “shooting will stop” in Lebanon, after phone calls with both sides. Says Iran talks back on “at rapid pace”; Lebanese presidency confirms Hezbollah agreed to US ceasefire proposal
- Iran announces halt to all exchanges with US, citing Israeli aggression in Lebanon. Trump says ‘haven’t heard’ this from Tehran, vows to keep US naval blockade in place.
- Iran overnight initiated fresh attacks on neighboring Kuwait and even released video showing footage of a ballistic missile launch.
- The US bombed radar & drone sites in Iran in response to the Iranians having shot down a US drone over the weekend. Reports of foreign jets over Iranian airspace.
- Iran negotiator Ghalibaf charges US with breaking the ceasefire: “the naval blockade and escalation of war crimes in Lebanon” were “clear evidence of US noncompliance with the ceasefire.”
- Trump Truth Social: “Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end – it always does!”
* * *
Reports of Ongoing Fighting in South Lebanon
Fresh reports of fighting, amid shaky truce declaration:
Sirens sound in the border community of Metula amid an apparent Hezbollah rocket attack from Lebanon.
The rocket fire comes despite US President Donald Trump announcing that Hezbollah would stop carrying out attacks on Israel amid the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Iran claims it attacked a US container ship in the Sea of Oman (Fars News).
Lebanon Truce Affirmed
The Lebanese presidency has announced that Hezbollah agreed to a US proposal on the mutual cessation of attacks, which will expand to all Lebanese territory.
Per a regional Arab correspondent:
As we emphasized, the Israeli attack on Lebanon was obstructing the reaching of the agreement. The mediators exerted great effort today, and after the American pressure and the Israeli retreat, the doors are now open to return the negotiations to their natural and positive course, and there is no longer much left.
Iran Talks Back On?
Wishful thinking or already a reality? …following a proclaimed Lebanon truce, uneasy at best:
Trump Suggests He is Forging Lebanon Ceasefire
Trump has announced the “shooting will stop” in Lebanon, after a flurry of phone calls, including with Netanyahu. This came shoon on the heels of Hezbollah signaling it is ready to agree to an immediate truce. Israel too has reportedly halted plans to begin new airstrikes on Beirut.
The Lebanon crisis caused Tehran to earlier announced it is halting all contacts with the US. Will the US-Iran talks now be back on?
Trump to CNBC: ‘I don’t care’ if talks are over
Trump has shrugged off the apparent collapse of talks with Iran, after Tehran earlier said it has halted all communications with Washington over Israel’s expanded assault on Lebanon and Hezbollah. Trump has freshly told CNBC by phone, “I don’t care if they’re over, honestly.”
“I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less,” he added, and indicated he was “going to ask” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “what’s going on with Lebanon.” This suggests Trump could pressure America’s ally to lower tensions.
Trump appears to be betting the US can ‘outlast’ the Islamic Republic, in terms of inflicting economic pain amid the growing global oil supply crisis due to the Hormuz Strait closure. On this, he reacted as follows:
He also said he wasn’t worried about oil prices, which spiked following the report in Iranian state media that Tehran is vowing to “completely block” the Strait of Hormuz in addition to halting negotiations.
“I think the oil will be dropping like a rock in the very near, you know, the very near distance,” Trump said.
Trump Reacts
President Trump tells NBC News that he’s not heard from Iran on reports they’re suspending talks, and on Iran, “I think we’ve been talking too much if you want to know the truth, going silent would be very good”
- We’ll keep the blockade in Hormuz.
- I think I can wait as long as they want. They’re losing a fortune.
His comments to NBC:
“It’s an appropriate thing to say, because they’re better negotiators than they are fighters,” he said in a brief phone call. “But they haven’t informed us of that.”
“It doesn’t mean we’re going to go and start dropping bombs all over there,” added Trump, who said Friday he would soon decide on a proposed deal to extend an ostensible ceasefire agreed to in early April. “We’ll keep the blockade.”
State Media: Iran Stops Exchanging Messages with US
Merely last week, Western MSM press reports were touting the usual ‘close to a deal’ headlines, but this morning demonstrates how illusory such claims were and are, as Iranian state media now suggests a total halt in communications between the sides.
Per state Tasnim, “Iran stops exchanging messages with the US in protest against Zionist crimes.” This as the IDF has sent ground forces deep into Lebanon, past the Litani River – in the deepest operation in decades. Tehran has insisted on linking up any US-Iran deal with a Israel-Lebanon peace. Tehran is now warning to “completely block the Strait of Hormuz, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait” – the latter with the cooperation of Yemen’s Houthis. All of this has direct impact on the US-Iran ceasefire:
IRAN’S STATE TV SAYS PROBABILITY OF CEASEFIRE BETWEEN IRAN AND U.S. ENDING IS HIGH IF ATTACKS ON LEBANON DO NOT STOP
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN//TUESDAY MORNING
Oil Spikes As Iran Denies Progress Despite Hasty Lebanon Truce: US Talks Halted For ‘At Least A Few Days’
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 09:25 AM
Summary:
- Washington has seen the Lebanon partial truce as opportunity enough to press forward on broader talks, with Trump saying he expects a broader Iran deal “over the next week”.
- But Fars denies this Tuesday: “exchange of messages between Iran & the US has been stopped for at least a few days” on MOU.
- In Lebanon, “While the ceasefire appears to be largely holding, there was further violence overnight,” reports BBC, with more dead & wounded on both sides.
* * *
Iran Denies Progress, Halt in Talks Still in Effect
State media has belatedly responded to Trump’s Monday claim that talks between the US and Iran are back on. Trump has even said Tuesday that he expects an agreement for an extended ceasefire to take place “over the next week” – along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“An informed source says that the exchange of messages between Iran and the US has been stopped for at least a few days for what is called the initial memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington,” Fars reports. So this is Iran in effect saying ‘not so fast’ – as it seeks to ‘hold the cards’ and maintain some leverage. Trump has not indicated a willingness to resume bombing the Islamic Republic, but his patience has seemed to be wearing thin over the last several days, as the White House is boxed in to only choosing among several ‘bad options’ in the wake of launching a war of choice 95 days ago.
Oil spikes on the negative news from Tehran, extends:
And more confirmation via newswires:
An Iranian source says there is currently no message exchange with the U.S., contradicting claims of ongoing progress. The source reports talks on an initial understanding have stalled for several days. It also noted Iran’s last communication with Washington concerned Lebanon and drew international attention, despite President Trump stating negotiations are advancing rapidly.
Latest on the Lebanon front:
“American sources for AI Hadath: Proposal for a 60-day plan during which Israel withdraws gradually from southern Lebanon”: AI Hadath reports.
- “Negotiations propose the deployment of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL in southern Lebanon after Israel’s withdrawal.”
- “Lebanon seeks to resolve Hezbollah’s weapons file politically, but after Israel’s complete withdrawal.”
Lebanon Fighting Persists Amid Nominal Ceasefire
Various regional and international reports have documented serious ongoing fighting in Lebanon, despite President Trump the day prior having declared that the shooting will cease and that Hezbollah and Israel were forging a limited ceasefire. Trump had said of both sides that “they agreed that all shooting will stop” – after Iran announcing it had suspended peace talks with the US over Israeli military action in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did affirm he would adhere to the agreement, and reports say that planned new airstrikes on Beirut were called off, but he also warned the attacks on the capital would go ahead “if Hezbollah does not stop attacking our cities and civilians” – and that forces in the south would continue operating.
BBC has freshly written that “While the ceasefire appears to be largely holding, there was further violence overnight.” The same report details:
Hezbollah said its fighters had targeted Israeli tanks in the southern Lebanese towns of Haddatha and Bayada with missiles and shells. The Israeli military said it had intercepted two projectiles that had been fired from Lebanon in the early hours of Tuesday. No injuries have been reported.
Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported Israeli strikes on several southern areas and said a “very violent” explosion from a large-scale demolition rocked the town of Debbine.
Tuesday has witnessed some ongoing attacks on south Lebanon, as well as Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli troop positions, wounding some. According to some of the latest from Al Jazeera:
Israeli forces have carried out multiple air raids on the city of Nabatieh, one of the largest in southern Lebanon, our colleagues on the ground report. The city, a strategic hub for Hezbollah, has been encircled by Israeli forces in recent days as troops continue pushing north.
Israeli attacks were also reported across the wider Nabatieh district as Israel deepens its occupation of surrounding areas. Drones hit the towns of Kafr Sir and Aabba, while a strike targeted the road leading to Houmine al-Fawqa. The outskirts of Yahmour al-Shaqif were also hit.
There’s also been a lot of explosions in the southern city of Tyre, with Israeli jets active in the airspace above on Tuesday. And rescuers have recovered six bodies from another town, with Lebanese civil defense agency having said in a statement: “Since yesterday evening and continuing until this morning … personnel have been carrying out search and rescue operations in a residential building that was targeted in the town of Marwaniyah – Sidon district.”
Hezbollah’s fiber-optic drone attacks have at the same time not ceased: “Two Israeli soldiers have been wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack in southern Lebanon, the military says, describing their injuries as minor,” Al Jazeera reports Tuesday. This is after “Two other Israeli soldiers were killed over the weekend, also in drone attacks, bringing to 26 the number of soldiers killed since fighting escalated three months ago. Four Israeli civilians have also been killed.”
Impact of Trump’s ‘Steamrolling’ Netanyahu in Monday Call
President Trump’s angry dressing down of Netanyahu may have had very limited effect, it appears. To review, per Axios during a Monday call Trump was reportedly heard cussing at the Israeli leader and essentially ‘steamrolled’ him – angry over breaking the Lebanon truce and demanding that Israel’s military not attack Beirut.
Trump is said to have told Netanyahu “you’re fucking crazy’” while demanding Lebanon truce: “I’m saving your ass,” he also reportedly said. Iran early Monday said it halted talks with Washington because of Israel’s escalation in Lebanon.
There’s been some reaction from Iran to the Axios report, with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi having remarked, “In this regard, the US president’s claim of having dissuaded Netanyahu from launching a major attack on Beirut is more than a sign of Washington’s peace-seeking, it’s confirmation of America’s direct role in managing the Zionist regime’s aggressions.”
The Iranian official continued to offer Tehran’s vew: “If the decision to attack the capital of an independent state can be changed with a single phone call the main question is: why did months of ceasefire violations, aggression against Lebanon, the displacement of its people, and threats to this country’s sovereignty – backed by Western political and military support – continue unabated?” he remarked.
Mark Levin rages over White House leaks of Trump-Netanyahu call…
END
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN/TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Trump Blasts ‘Fake’ Reports Of Iran Talks Freeze As Rubio Insists To Congress Tehran Ready To Negotiate Nuclear Curbs
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 01:55 PM
Summary:
- Trump insists reports that Iran & US have not been talking for days is ‘fake news’; Rubio also tells Congress talks are ongoing, despite fresh Iranian denials, and even claims the nuclear file is part of it.
- Washington has seen the Lebanon partial truce as opportunity enough to press forward on broader talks, with Trump saying he expects a broader Iran deal “over the next week”.
- But Fars denies this Tuesday: “exchange of messages between Iran & the US has been stopped for at least a few days” on MOU.
- In Lebanon, “While the ceasefire appears to be largely holding, there was further violence overnight,” reports BBC, with more dead & wounded on both sides.
* * *
Trump: It’s ‘Fake News’ That Iran & US Stopped Speaking Days Ago
President Trump in a fresh Truth Social post has again insisted that Washington and Tehran are talking again. “The conversations between us have been going on continuously… where they lead, one never knows, but as I told Iran, ‘It’s time, one way or another, for you to make a Deal.'”
Throughout the morning Secretary of State Marco Rubio was fielding questions on Capitol Hill. He too insisted that talks are ongoing, despite a Tuesday Iranian denial. He claimed the regime is ‘fragmented’ and because of this, back-and-forth messaging is extremely slow-going. “Iranian people would make a deal tomorrow if it were up to them,” Rubio said. “The Supreme Leader and the IRGC are a bit more immune to pressures.”
He also generally acknowledged that Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and then said this justified the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in turn. There was also this interesting exchange when he echoed Trump’s line that the war is actually ‘over’ at this point…
Hawks like Ted Cruz want to know of any other regime change tactics going on…
A potential new nuclear framework regarding Iran was also a central topic to Tuesday’s Congressional testimony:
Big if true, there is still too much smoke and noise:
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that Iran has agreed to discuss previously off-limits aspects of its nuclear program, raising hopes that ongoing negotiations could pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a broader diplomatic breakthrough.
Speaking at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the State Department’s budget request, Rubio said: “We are in talks… There is the prospect before us, which could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week, that for the first time, certainly in my memory, they have agreed to negotiate aspects of their nuclear program.”
He said the U.S. hopes such negotiations could lead to a broader understanding that would include the reopening of the strategic waterway.
“We’re hopeful that something like that could happen, in which the straits would reopen, we would enter into a period of negotiations on very specific topics, delineated negotiations, in the hope of reaching an outcome that’s acceptable to us and something they would be able to do as well,” he said.
The above was spoken with a few too many caveats… “which could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week...”
Rubio in the hot seat over Iran war:
Iran Denies Progress, Halt in Talks Still in Effect
State media has belatedly responded to Trump’s Monday claim that talks between the US and Iran are back on. Trump has even said Tuesday that he expects an agreement for an extended ceasefire to take place “over the next week” – along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“An informed source says that the exchange of messages between Iran and the US has been stopped for at least a few days for what is called the initial memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington,” Fars reports. So this is Iran in effect saying ‘not so fast’ – as it seeks to ‘hold the cards’ and maintain some leverage. Trump has not indicated a willingness to resume bombing the Islamic Republic, but his patience has seemed to be wearing thin over the last several days, as the White House is boxed in to only choosing among several ‘bad options’ in the wake of launching a war of choice 95 days ago.
Oil spikes on the negative news from Tehran, extends:
And more confirmation via newswires:
An Iranian source says there is currently no message exchange with the U.S., contradicting claims of ongoing progress. The source reports talks on an initial understanding have stalled for several days. It also noted Iran’s last communication with Washington concerned Lebanon and drew international attention, despite President Trump stating negotiations are advancing rapidly.
Latest on the Lebanon front:
“American sources for AI Hadath: Proposal for a 60-day plan during which Israel withdraws gradually from southern Lebanon”: AI Hadath reports.
- “Negotiations propose the deployment of the Lebanese army and UNIFIL in southern Lebanon after Israel’s withdrawal.”
- “Lebanon seeks to resolve Hezbollah’s weapons file politically, but after Israel’s complete withdrawal.”
ISRAEL TBN
HEZBOLLAH
Trump announces fresh Lebanon truce as Netanyahu appears to call off Beirut strikes
Hezbollah keeps attacking north despite declaration of ceasefire, which US president reportedly demanded PM agree to: ‘I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel’
By Jacob Magid Follow
and Nava Freiberg Follow
Today, 2:34 am
A plume of smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike on the outskirts of Tyre, southern Lebanon, on June 1, 2026 (KAWNAT HAJU / AFP)
US President Donald Trump indicated on Monday that Washington brokered a fresh truce between Israel and Hezbollah after the one reached in April unravelled in recent days, though the Iran-backed terror group continued to target northern communities into early Tuesday morning and Lebanese media reported fresh IDF strikes.
Following Trump’s announcement, an Israeli source said Jerusalem agreed to postpone planned strikes on Beirut, hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said they instructed the military to strike Hezbollah targets in the capital.
In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump wrote that he had a “very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no troops going to Beirut, and any troops that are on their way, have already been turned back.”Promoted: Jewish
“He turned his Troops around. Thank you Bibi!” Trump said, describing Israel’s attack plans as “a major raid of Beirut.”
Israeli military sources however said no troops were actually en route to Beirut, contrary to Trump’s claim.
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“Likewise — through highly placed representatives — I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — that Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel,” Trump added, without specifying with whom he spoke, while also claiming Hezbollah consented to not target Israeli troops.
“Let’s see how long that lasts — Hopefully it will be for ETERNITY!”
Prior to a phone call Monday with Netanyahu, Trump told CNBC that he would ask the Israeli premier, “What’s going on with Lebanon?”
Trump reportedly went on to lash out at Netanyahu during the call, calling him “fucking crazy” as he demanded that Israel agree to the ceasefire with Hezbollah.
Axios cited a US official summarizing Trump’s message to Netanyahu as follows: “You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.”
While US officials told the news site that Trump was aware Hezbollah has been firing repeatedly at Israel and that Jerusalem has a right to respond, he believes the IDF responded disproportionately in recent days, risking Washington’s efforts to secure a ceasefire extension with Iran — which is conditioning a deal on a truce in Lebanon.
Trump “steamrolled” Netanyahu on the call, and “Bibi said, ‘OK, OK, just make sure everything is taken care of,’” a US official told Axios.
US officials were also quoted saying that Trump told Netanyahu that he has kept him out of prison, a reference to Trump’s repeated public demand that President Isaac Herzog pardon the prime minister, who is in the midst of a lengthy corruption trial.
Netanyahu’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
Truce terms remain unclear as fighting continues
Washington’s push for a new ceasefire came as the previous ceasefire brokered on April 16 has largely evaporated, with Hezbollah keeping up its relentless rocket and drone attacks and the Israel Defense Forces pushing ahead with an expanded ground operation and widening airstrikes.
Trump did not clarify the exact terms of his apparent ceasefire, and there were conflicting indications as to what it entails from Washington, Jerusalem, Beirut and Hezbollah, with the latter claiming the truce not only prevents Israel from strikes in the Lebanese capital but the entire country.
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri reportedly informed the US that Hezbollah was ready to sign a full ceasefire with Israel, with the senior official in Beirut pledging to guarantee the truce’s implementation.
“I called the US ambassador to Beirut, Michel Issa, on Sunday and told him on behalf of Speaker Berri that Hezbollah will be ready to totally commit to a comprehensive ceasefire and we are ready to guarantee it,” Berri’s aide Ali Hamdan told the Axios news site.
Axios said the ceasefire that Hezbollah is willing to accept would still allow Israel to keep its large buffer zone in south Lebanon.
Berri has close ties to Hezbollah, but it is far from clear that the senior lawmaker can ensure the terror group’s compliance with a ceasefire.
Hamdan confirmed that the US proposed a partial ceasefire over the weekend that would require Hezbollah to stop striking northern Israel in return for the IDF committing to not striking Beirut.
A US official told Axios that Berri’s response to Washington’s proposal was “evasive and disappointing” — a charge rejected by Hamdan.
“The proposal we received was no Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel and that in return Israel will not bomb Beirut and then gradually the ceasefire will expand to other areas. Speaker Berri’s reply was, ‘Why a partial ceasefire? Let’s have a full ceasefire,” Hamdan said.
Berri instead proposed a full ceasefire on the ground, air and sea that would also include a cessation of Israeli home demolitions in southern Lebanon.
Hamdan told Axios that Berri has been able to exchange messages with Hezbollah’s secretary-general Naim Qassem, who is believed to be in hiding.
“We are sure Hezbollah will commit to a total ceasefire. We think it will be more productive. We know time is running out,” Hamdan said.
The same US official quoted earlier by Axios told the news site that he stood by his earlier characterization of Berri’s response.
While the US has, for months, urged Israel not to strike Beirut, officials have refrained from doing so publicly, or even anonymously in the press.
“The US does not expect Israel to absorb ongoing attacks on its civilians by a terrorist organization,” the US official told Axios, suggesting that Washington’s opposition to strikes in Beirut could soften.
There was no immediate response from Israel to Trump’s announcement, but after around two hours, Netanyahu said Israel would proceed with its earlier plans to strike Beirut, should Hezbollah not halt its attacks on northern Israel.
“I spoke this evening with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not stop attacking our cities and civilians, Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut. This position remains unchanged,” Netanyahu said in a Hebrew-language statement.
“At the same time, the IDF will continue operating in southern Lebanon as planned,” Netanyahu said.
Separately, an Israeli source told the Ynet news site that Israel had postponed the planned strikes on Beirut at the request of the US, which had asked it to hold off as it worked to advance the ceasefire initiative announced by Trump.
Earlier on Monday, an Israeli official had told the news outlet that the now-postponed Beirut strikes had been coordinated with Washington. The outlet noted the possibility that the purpose of ordering the attack was to pressure Hezbollah into agreeing to the ceasefire proposal.
Shortly after Netanyahu’s statement, sirens sounded in the border community of Metula, which the IDF said were triggered by a rocket launched by Hezbollah that struck near Israeli troops operating in southern Lebanon.
Sirens were also activated early Tuesday morning in communities across the north, including the Upper Galilee city of Safed, where the IDF said it intercepted two Hezbollah rockets launched toward the area. In the Western Galilee, an apparent Hezbollah drone struck a military position close to the border with Lebanon.
There were no injuries in any of the attacks.
Lebanese media meanwhile reported several Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon in the wake of Trump’s announcement, though there was no immediate comment from the IDF.
Trump’s announcement of a fresh ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came after Tehran reportedly threatened to bolt talks with the US if the IDF didn’t cease its strikes in Lebanon.
Then, following his announcement, he declared that talks were “continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Trump later explicitly linked the two, telling ABC News that he believed a deal to extend the US-Iran truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached “over the next week” after fixing “a little glitch” that he said was Iranian anger over Israeli strikes on Hezbollah.
The sequence of events would appear to undercut US efforts to try to separate the war in Lebanon from its conflict with Iran. Tehran has insisted on tying the two, as it seeks to protect its Hezbollah proxy and continue influencing events in Lebanon. While the US and Israel have pushed back against such linkage, Washington’s effort to secure another Lebanon truce announcement just hours after Tehran threatened to abandon talks with the over the issue indicated that it the Trump administration was not as committed to separating the two fronts as Jerusalem is.
The latest round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah began on March 2, when Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel two days after the US and Israel attacked its main backer, Iran. Since then, 26 IDF soldiers and one Defense Ministry civilian contractor have been killed in southern Lebanon, 14 of them since a ceasefire was introduced on April 16. Two civilians were also killed by Hezbollah rockets, and an Israeli civilian was mistakenly killed in the north by Israeli artillery shelling.
In Lebanon, the Israeli military has said that it has killed over 2,500 Hezbollah operatives, including hundreds of members of the terror group’s elite Radwan Force, since early March.
Since March 2, Hezbollah has fired some 5,500 rockets at IDF troops operating in the south of the country, as well as around 2,500 at Israel, according to the military. There were at least 75 rocket impact sites in Israel.
In addition, Hezbollah launched around 300 drones, of which 25 struck Israel, according to the IDF.
The IDF believes Hezbollah still possesses thousands of short-range rockets, along with hundreds of longer-range projectiles. The IDF has said that Hezbollah is launching most of its attacks from deeper within southern Lebanon, north of the Litani River, and not from areas close to the border.
end
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL/TUESDAY
the ceasefire basically ends after 24hrs: Hezbollah will continue to fire missiles and drones and Israel will consolidate in the south.
(zerohedge)
Hezbollah & IDF Trade Fire Amid Nominal Ceasefire, As Trump Says Iran Deal Coming ‘Over Next Week’
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 08:30 AM
Various regional and international reports have documented serious ongoing fighting in Lebanon, despite President Trump the day prior having declared that the shooting will cease and that Hezbollah and Israel were forging a limited ceasefire. Trump had said of both sides that “they agreed that all shooting will stop” – after Iran announcing it had suspended peace talks with the US over Israeli military action in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did affirm he would adhere to the agreement, and reports say that planned new airstrikes on Beirut were called off, but he also warned the attacks on the capital would go ahead “if Hezbollah does not stop attacking our cities and civilians” – and that forces in the south would continue operating.
BBC has freshly written that “While the ceasefire appears to be largely holding, there was further violence overnight.” The same report details:
Hezbollah said its fighters had targeted Israeli tanks in the southern Lebanese towns of Haddatha and Bayada with missiles and shells. The Israeli military said it had intercepted two projectiles that had been fired from Lebanon in the early hours of Tuesday. No injuries have been reported.
Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported Israeli strikes on several southern areas and said a “very violent” explosion from a large-scale demolition rocked the town of Debbine.
Tuesday has witnessed some ongoing attacks on south Lebanon, as well as Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli troop positions, wounding some. According to some of the latest from Al Jazeera:
Israeli forces have carried out multiple air raids on the city of Nabatieh, one of the largest in southern Lebanon, our colleagues on the ground report. The city, a strategic hub for Hezbollah, has been encircled by Israeli forces in recent days as troops continue pushing north.
Israeli attacks were also reported across the wider Nabatieh district as Israel deepens its occupation of surrounding areas. Drones hit the towns of Kafr Sir and Aabba, while a strike targeted the road leading to Houmine al-Fawqa. The outskirts of Yahmour al-Shaqif were also hit.
There’s also been a lot of explosions in the southern city of Tyre, with Israeli jets active in the airspace above on Tuesday. And rescuers have recovered six bodies from another town, with Lebanese civil defense agency having said in a statement: “Since yesterday evening and continuing until this morning … personnel have been carrying out search and rescue operations in a residential building that was targeted in the town of Marwaniyah – Sidon district.”
Hezbollah’s fiber-optic drone attacks have at the same time not ceased: “Two Israeli soldiers have been wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack in southern Lebanon, the military says, describing their injuries as minor,” Al Jazeera reports Tuesday. This is after “Two other Israeli soldiers were killed over the weekend, also in drone attacks, bringing to 26 the number of soldiers killed since fighting escalated three months ago. Four Israeli civilians have also been killed.”
President Trump’s angry dressing down of Netanyahu may have had very limited effect, it appears. To review, per Axios during a Monday call Trump was reportedly heard cussing at the Israeli leader and essentially ‘steamrolled’ him – angry over breaking the Lebanon truce and demanding that Israel’s military not attack Beirut.
Trump is said to have told Netanyahu “you’re fucking crazy’” while demanding Lebanon truce: “I’m saving your ass,” he also reportedly said. Iran early Monday said it halted talks with Washington because of Israel’s escalation in Lebanon.
There’s been some reaction from Iran to the Axios report, with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi having remarked, “In this regard, the US president’s claim of having dissuaded Netanyahu from launching a major attack on Beirut is more than a sign of Washington’s peace-seeking, it’s confirmation of America’s direct role in managing the Zionist regime’s aggressions.”
The Iranian official continued to offer Tehran’s vew: “If the decision to attack the capital of an independent state can be changed with a single phone call the main question is: why did months of ceasefire violations, aggression against Lebanon, the displacement of its people, and threats to this country’s sovereignty – backed by Western political and military support – continue unabated?” he remarked.
Mark Levin rages over White House leaks of Trump-Netanyahu call…
But Washington has seen the Lebanon partial truce as opportunity enough to press forward on broader talks. While there’s hasn’t been full confirmation from Tehran’s side, Trump has declared the talks as back on:
US President Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week, while he also stated that a peace agreement with Iran could be better than a military victory. Trump also stated that it’s not simple for both sides, but they’re getting what they need to get and that he still has to get a few more points.
The very same network points on Tuesday morning:
Israeli and Hezbollah forces continued their attacks on Tuesday despite President Donald Trump’s claim that the warring sides had “stopped shooting each other” after his intervention to prevent escalation on Monday.
Lebanon’s state-run news agency, NNA, reported three Israeli strikes in separate areas in southern Lebanon. One person was killed, NNA reported. ABC News has contacted the Israel Defense Forces to request comment.
So, once again Trump touting the likelihood of a deal to reopen Hormuz by next week seems extremely wishful and ambitious, to say the least. And we’ve heard all this before, and been here many times over the past 95 days of war
IRAN
Iran Has Dug Out More Missile Tunnels Than Previously Thought: Satellite Analysis
Monday, Jun 01, 2026 – 11:00 PM
During the current but tenuous ceasefire, Iran has successfully managed to excavate multiple key sites tied to its missile program that were previously bombarded by the American-Israeli warplanes during the initial five weeks of Operation Epic Fury.
While the revelation is not exactly new, a fresh CNN report has confirmed through recent satellite imagery that more missile tunnels have been dug out than previously thought.
Tehran utilized basic construction equipment to dig out several missile launchers and reopen subterranean tunnels tied to its missile program. The visual analysis determined that Iran was able to successfully clear the entrances to 50 out of 69 targeted tunnels, alongside 18 distinct missile production sites.
“Iran has repaired other parts of the bases as well, including roads that the US and Israel bombed to prevent missile launchers from using them,” CNN wrote. “Satellite images show almost all these craters have now been filled, and at two sites, even repaved.”
This assessment heavily mirrors a series of leaked intelligence reports that have surfaced over the past month. CNN underscored that the US intelligence community currently estimates that Iran still has over 75% of its missile launchers fully available, and there’s been a constant production of drones ongoing throughout the ceasefire.
Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who analyzes told the outlet that “There’s nothing to prevent the launchers from being armed with the ample stockpile of missiles that the Iranians still have.”
He sought to highlight the limits of American firepower, in terms of damage, and given that it hasn’t been sustained:
“The US military is good at delivering tactical successes, and entombing and suppressing the Iranian missile force is a great example of that,” said Lair.
“However, if that isn’t accompanied by a set of reasonable strategic war aims and an achievable theory of victory, it can end up being a strategic failure.”
President Trump has been touting the near annihilation of Iran’s arsenal, and has lately said the rest of its launch sites could be taken out in a day if he gave the order.
Despite that peace talks are not really going anywhere, and Tehran even announced they’ve halted as of Monday morning, the White House doesn’t look in any hurry to start dropping bombs again.
So far both sides have settled in for a long conflict, centered on blockading the Hormuz Strait, and in anticipating of outlasting the other side in terms of absorbing economic and political pain.
END
IRAN
Iran has not yet responded to final agreement with US aiming to end the conflict
ByREUTERS
Iran has not yet responded to a proposed final agreement with the United States aimed at ending the conflict between the two countries, and discussions on the final text are continuing in Tehran, a source close to the Iranian negotiating team told Mehr News on Tuesday.
The source said Iran was reviewing the proposal cautiously because of what it sees as a history of U.S. non-compliance and longstanding mistrust.
“Based on previous experiences, Iran is seeking tangible and real benefits,” the source said.
END
Outgoing Mossad chief Barnea urges Israel to topple wounded Iranian regime
If in the past, Barnea’s promise seemed to be to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, this was an additional time that he doubled or even tripled down on regime change for Iran.
download high resolution download low resolution add to lightbox file name: F250423CG505 File Size: 9682 KB caption (en): Head of Mossad David Barnea attends a ceremony held at the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial Museum in Jerusalem, as Israel marks the annual Holocaust Remembrance Day. April 23,(photo credit: CHAIM GOLDBERG/FLASH90)ByYONAH JEREMY BOBJUNE 2, 2026 07:46Updated: JUNE 2, 2026 08:38
The Mossad announced on Tuesday morning that its outgoing chief, David Barnea, in a retirement ceremony late Monday night, called for Israel and the agency to remain committed to toppling the Islamic regime, which still runs Iran, following the recent 2026 war.
If in the past, Barnea’s promise seemed to be to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, this was an additional time that he doubled or even tripled down on regime change for Iran, remaining as the Mossad’s primary mission.
“I promised that Iran would never get a nuclear weapon. Today, when the Iranian regime is at its weakest, most challenged, and most wounded, this is the time to complete the job, and to pay back the regime which engraved destroying us on its flag. We are at the height of a historic and important campaign,” said Barnea.
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He continued, “I believed, and I still believe, that a change in the reality in Iran by virtue of toppling the regime is a possible and achievable goal. This is a possible goal. And clearly this matter will require persistence, a cool head, and commitment to the mission.”
“But this is our obligation to future generations. This mission must remain as our top priority,” he added.
‘We have complex challenges ahead of us, which go to the heart of security’
In contrast, Netanyahu’s comments did not focus on Iran and regime change, but rather on Barnea’s role leading the exploding beepers sabotage campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon in September 2024, and the near immediate aftermath of the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, which the agency also had a significant role in.
END
HAMAS
WATCH: IDF kills Oct. 7 terrorist who kidnapped Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eliya Cohen, Alon Ohel
The terrorist, identified as Yousef Ayesh Awad Ramadan, was a deputy commander of a Hamas Nukhba terrorist cell who infiltrated Israel during the October 7th attacks.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4059165&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF kills Hamas terrorist who participated in the kidnappings of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eliya Cohen, Alon Ohel, and Or Levy. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson Unit)
JUNE 2, 2026 18:42Updated: JUNE 2, 2026 19:00
The IDF killed a Hamas terrorist on Monday who participated in the kidnappings of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eliya Cohen, Alon Ohel, and Or Levy during the October 7th massacre.
The terrorist, identified as Yousef Ayesh Awad Ramadan, was a deputy commander of a Hamas Nukhba terrorist cell who infiltrated Israel during the October 7th massacre and took part in abducting the Israeli hostages who were taking refuge in a bomb shelter at the Re’im Junction.
The military said that Ramadan had “advanced attack plans against IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians” during the war and in the recent weeks, posing a threat to the IDF soldiers operating in Gaza.
“Prior to the strike, steps were taken to mitigate harm to civilians, including the use of precise munitions and aerial surveillance,” the IDF said.
IDF kills Hamas chief, October 7th terrorists
The IDF killed additional October 7th terrorists back on May 16, when it targeted Hamer Iyad Muhammad Almatouk and Khaled Muhammad Salem Joudeh in separate strikes in the northern Gaza Strip.
Before the strikes, the two Hamas terrorists tried to carry out attacks against Israeli troops operating in the area, posing an immediate threat and triggering the precision strikes.
A day before, Hamas military leader Izz ad-Din al-Haddad was killed, with IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir describing the operation as a “significant operational achievement.”
“In every conversation I held with the hostages who returned, the name of the arch-terrorist Izz ad-Din al-Haddad, one of the chief perpetrators of the October 7 massacre and the head of Hamas’ military wing, came up again and again,” Zamir said in a statement released on Saturday. “Today, we succeeded in eliminating him.”
The air force carried out the strike after receiving intelligence from the Southern Command and Military Intelligence Directorate on Haddad’s location, which had been identified after years of military intelligence collection.
Approval was given to the IDF by government officials about 10 days prior to the attack, according to the media.
Prior to the attack, the air force carried out a “deception operation” approved by Maj.-Gen. Omer Tischler.
Amir Bohbot, Ariella Roitman, and Goldie Katz contributed to this report.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
CRAZY WAR
Russia Unleashes Its Threatened Mass Bombardment: At Least 18 Killed, Over 100 Wounded Across Ukraine
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 10:25 AM
The Kremlin spent much of the last week warning foreign diplomats and bystanders to evacuate Ukraine’s capital, warning that an escalation in airstrikes is imminent, in response to Ukraine’s own drone swarms sent against Moscow and other Russian sites last month – especially the Starobelsk dormitory attack.
“In response to terrorist attacks by the Kyiv regime, the Russian Armed Forces launched a large-scale strike using long-range, high-precision air, land and sea-based weapons — including hypersonic aero-ballistic missiles and attack drones,” the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) said in a statement. “The objectives of the strike were achieved. All designated targets were hit,” it added.
In the wake of these devastating overnight attacks, Ukraine is reporting that at least 18 people were killed and over 100 more wounded. The hours-long assault was clearly one of the biggest and deadliest of the last year or more.
Ukraine’s air force tallied that over 640 drones were sent and 73 missiles were fired on various cities, including Kyiv, and Dnipro, as well as several eastern cities, including Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine claims it intercepted the majority of these, but still dozens of projectiles made it through to impact.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko later confirmed that six people were killed in the Ukrainian capital and that at least 66 others, including two children, were wounded.
There was mayhem as people fled to shelters during the nighttime “mass enemy attack”. The mayor had warned while it unfolded: “Explosions in the city. Air defense forces are working! Stay in shelters!”
Central Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region also saw high casualties, with at least 12 people killed and 36 others wounded. The regional governor reported that children were among the injured.
Moscow has not owned up to inflicting civilian casualties in the fresh overnight assault, but has instead framed this as part of its previewed “systematic and consistent strikes” on Ukraine’s military infrastructure.
President Putin and top military brass had last month said strikes would be initiated against “decision-making centers” in response to the dorm attack in the Russia’s Lugansk People’s Republic on May 22, which killed 21 people – mostly teenage girls – and injured 70 others.
Kremlin officials now say that Russian forces have “a right to dismantle any infrastructure that supports terrorism.”
Despite this clear escalation, peace talks are nowhere on the horizon, also as the White House’s attention is currently fixated on the Iran war and Hormuz Strait crisis. Russia has in the meantime benefited from the Iran crisis, with sanctions relief on its oil exports from Washington, and elevated crude prices.
President Trump is on a daily basis dealing with now largely stalemated back-and-forth diplomatic messaging with Tehran, and so the persistent Ukraine war seems to have taken a far back seat in terms of administration priorities.
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES//
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Where’s The Limit
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 11:00 AM
By Stefan Koopman, senior market strategist at Rabobank
The ancient Greeks left a rich intellectual legacy, as our global strategist Michael Every showed last week in The Hormuz Odyssey. The same fertile ground also produced a famous set of puzzles that have challenged thinkers for centuries. These are the paradoxes of Zeno. In the Dichotomy Paradox, Zeno argued that a runner can never reach the finish line on a straight track. The logic is simple. The runner must first cover half the distance to the goal. Once there, he must still cover half of what remains. After that, he must cover half of the new remainder, and so on, and so on. At each step, some distance remains. In Zeno’s telling, the runner is never able to reach the finish line.
US‑Iran talks follow the same logic. Washington and Tehran have broadly agreed on the outline of a deal: a 60‑day ceasefire extension, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a trade of sanctions relief for nuclear constraints. Officials on both sides also describe an agreement as imminent. Yet each apparent breakthrough produces a new obstacle. Negotiators still haggle over language, sequencing and enforcement, and have even yet to settle the basic question of who signs first. Like Zeno’s runner, the two sides keep halving the distance to a deal – closing in on it step by step – without seeming to ever arrive.
The resolution to Zeno’s paradox lies in the concept of limits. So when will President Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei reach theirs? When is enough, enough? Markets still assume that moment is close, with the front‑month Brent contract hovering just above six‑week lows. But the longer Washington and Tehran fail to reach an agreement, the more they open the door for disruptors to shape events, from US‑Iran skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
The past 24 hours indeed showed how fragile this equilibrium is. Iran’s IRGC‑linked Tasnim agency reported that Iranian negotiators would halt talks with the US in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon against Hezbollah. It also warned that the “resistance front” could be activated, including potential Houthi involvement in the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait. Oil prices jumped 7%, the dollar strengthened, and equity futures turned red. Within hours, however, Trump said he had spoken to both Hezbollah and Netanyahu (all while saying he “really doesn’t care” if talks collapse) and claimed that Israel and Hezbollah would stand down. He also added that talks with Iran were proceeding at a “rapid pace”, a line we have now heard for weeks.
Oil prices quickly reversed, but scepticism is warranted. Trump again appears to negotiate with himself. He claims progress while trying to contain escalation on fronts he does not control. From Tehran’s perspective, that urgency weakens the US position. Why offer concessions that fall short of core strategic interests if they believe they can roll the US president a bit further? The past day suggests Iran does not see itself as the side under decisive pressure. It appears to believe that the US and its partners have at least as much at stake in avoiding further instability. In that setting, President Trump does not seem to hold the stronger hand. And while Zeno’s runner never arrives, the real world does have real limits, and we are moving steadily closer to physical supply hitting effective tank bottom.
It cannot be stressed enough: the longer this drags on, the bigger the problems become. The PMIs made that clear yesterday. The US manufacturing ISM rose to 54, its highest level in four years, but that headline is deceptive. Much of the strength reflects companies bringing forward orders and activity to build inventories and protect against supply chain disruptions. That boost is likely to prove temporary but inflationary.
The details of the euro area manufacturing PMI, which printed at 51.6, are equally unconvincing. The survey shows costs rose at the fastest pace in four years, driven by higher energy and raw material prices, while more frequent supply chain delays added further upward pressure..
Higher prices for inputs, packaging and logistics will push up euro area goods inflation in the months ahead. But as factories pass these higher costs on to customers, they face weaker demand than in the immediate post‑pandemic period, when the previous supply shock hit the economy. The PMI suggests that order books are already starting to stall after an initial boost from front‑loading and precautionary bookings. This points to a clear trade‑off. The ECB will raise rates next week to signal vigilance, but it will also need to stay cautious about how far it goes as demand starts to weaken.
The ECB’s consumer expectations survey showed a slight easing in April. Consumers expect prices to rise by 2.9% a year over the next three years, down from 3.0% in March. One modestly positive signal for the ECB is that the distribution around this three‑year expectation has normalised somewhat. Last week, Schnabel warned that a rightward shift in inflation expectations could signal de‑anchoring risks that “must be monitored carefully.” Expectations for the next 12 months stayed at 4%, while five‑year expectations held at 2.4%, still above the ECB’s 2% medium‑term target.
END
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES
Venezuela Oil Exports Hit 7-Year High
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 03:40 PM
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
Venezuela’s oil exports inched up from April to hit a fresh seven-year high in May as shipments to the United States and India continued to rise.
Venezuela exported an estimated 1.25 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in May, up by 0.7% compared to April’s 1.23 million bpd exports and a massive 61% jump compared to May 2025, according to ship-tracking and vessel-loading data reviewed by Reuters.
Venezuela has been steadily increasing its oil exports since the U.S. took control over its oil sales following the capture of Nicolas Maduro early this year.
The U.S. has eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and its state oil firm PDVSA, allowed Western firms to return to Venezuelan operations, and has encouraged American companies to sign production and export deals.
The U.S. and India have become major buyers of Venezuela’s oil after the sanctions were dropped and the top international oil traders Vitol and Trafigura were tasked to sell most of the crude to buyers.
As a result, the Venezuelan exports rose for a third consecutive month in May, with shipments to India accounting for the slight increase compared to April.
Exports in April jumped by 14% from March levels, with 66 cargoes leaving Venezuelan ports during the month, and volumes at their highest since 2019 when the first Trump Administration imposed sanctions on PDVSA and Venezuela’s oil exports.
In May, a total of 67 cargoes carrying Venezuelan crude were exported, according to the data Reuters has reviewed.
The United States remained the top buyer of Venezuela’s crude, taking in about 558,000 bpd in May, followed by India with 427,000 bpd and Europe with 169,000 bpd. Shipments to all three regions rose in May from April levels.
India’s top private refiner, Reliance Industries, has become one of the three biggest buyers of Venezuelan crude as it imported cargoes sold by Chevron, Vitol, and Trafigura, according to the data.
India is importing the highest volumes of Venezuelan crude in six years as it turns to the South American producer amid the Middle East supply crisis.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1647 UP 0.0012
USA/ YEN 159.69 UP 0.044 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3469 UP 0.0009 OR 9 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3839 UP 0.002 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 17.36 PTS OR 0.43%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 616.36 PTS OR 2.43%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.75%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 616.32 PTS OR 2,43%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.36 OR 0.43%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.75%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 17.36 PTS OR 0.43%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4536.00
silver:$76.85
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 45.93 PLUS 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 72.56 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 61 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.8480 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.540 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.427 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.081 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early TUESDAY MORNING: 98.97 UP 12 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.328% DOWN 6 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.563% DOWN 7 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.845 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.381 DOWN 5 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.693 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.9648 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1649 UP 0.0014 OR 14 basis points
USA/Japan: 159.79 UP 0.139 OR YEN IS DOWN 14 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.8420 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.533 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 6 BASIS pts to 1.3835
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP TO 6.7627// ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7620
TURKISH LIRA: 45.93 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.439.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.955 DOWN 7 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.033 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4512.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 75.96
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 34.56 PTS OR 0.33%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 121.03 OR 0.48%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 62.50 PTS PTS PTS OR 0.77%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 97.10 PTS OR 0.48 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 803.38 PTS OR 1.61%
WTI Oil price 91.61 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 94.61 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 73.01 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 16 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.424 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.081 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1631 DOWN 0.0005 OR 5 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3468 UP 0.0008 OR 8 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.8720 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.562 UP 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.570 DOWN 11 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.845 DOWN 7 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 159.915 UP 0.270 OR YEN DOWN 27 BASIS PTS//GETTING CLOSER TO 160.00
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3836 UP 0.0000 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 00 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 93.56
Brent OIL: 95.96
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.452
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 1 PTS to 4.965%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.047 DOWN 1 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.409 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.067 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.18 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 45.91 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 73.01 DOWN 1 AND 06/100 roubles //
GOLD $4484.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 75.05 3;30 PM)
XX
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 228.91 OR 0.45%
NASDAQ 100 UP 146.74 PTS OR 0.48%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.85 DOWN .20 PTS OR .125.%
GLD: $ 411.92 UP 0.66 PTS OR 0.16%
SLV/ $67.99 PTS UP 0.32 OR OR 0.47%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 408.35 PTS 1.18%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Bitcoin Battered, Black Gold Bid As Job Openings Battle Hormuz Closings
WRAP UP
Crude gains on reports US/Iran talks are halted despite Trump’s denial – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 04:34 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries flatten, Crude up, Dollar flat, Gold flat
- REAR VIEW: Fars reports talks between US and Iran have halted, but Trump says this is fake news; Above-expected JOLTS; Israel and Lebanon not yet able to reach agreement on ceasefire, but aim is for an agreement tomorrow; Fed’s Hammack said Fed may need to act soon if inflation trends do not cool; USD/JPY tests 160; EU headline inflation in line; STMicroelectronics and Microchip raised data center revenue guidance; GOOGL to raise $80bln for AI spending; NVDA CEO stated MRVL will be the next $1tln company; Stellar HPE earnings; US proposes 25% tariffs on Brazil
- COMING UP: Data: Global Final PMIs (May), Australian GDP (Q1), EU PPI (Apr), US ADP Employment Change (May), ISM Services PMI (May), Factory Orders (Apr) Events: Fed Beige Book Speakers: BoJ’s Ueda; ECB’s Elderson, Cipollone; Fed’s Goolsbee, Barr, Logan Supply: Australia, UK Earnings: Broadcom, CrowdStrike.
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MARKET WRAP
US equities closed higher on Tuesday, with the Russell 2000 outperforming as it rebounded from Monday’s losses, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also posted modest gains. Sector performance was broadly positive, with Utilities and Energy leading the advance. Communication Services was the clear laggard, weighed down by Alphabet (GOOGL, -4%) after it announced plans to raise USD 80bln for AI infrastructure. Elsewhere, Marvell (MRVL) surged after Nvidia CEO Huang suggested it could become the next trillion-dollar company, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) rallied following a strong earnings report.
Crude prices moved higher amid mixed geopolitical reporting. The headline that appeared to drive the session came from Fars News, which reported that communications between Iran and the US aimed at reaching an initial memorandum of understanding had been suspended for several days. However, later reporting was more constructive, with a senior Iranian political source telling Amwaj Media that communications via intermediaries had not ceased. President Trump later echoed that view, dismissing reports of a breakdown in talks as “fake news”.
Treasuries flattened as higher oil prices weighed on the front-end, while stronger-than-expected JOLTS data only briefly supported higher yields before the move faded. The Dollar was mixed against G10 peers. The Australian Dollar outperformed, supported by higher metals prices, while the Yen lagged as USD/JPY reached 159.99, edging ever closer to levels markets associate with potential intervention. ING analysts note the intervention threshold may now be higher than the 160.60 area seen in April, potentially closer to 162-163, although they still view intervention risks as underpriced.
On the data front, JOLTS job openings surged to 7.618mln from 6.866mln, well above the 6.82mln forecast. Fed’s Hammack also reinforced a hawkish tone, saying it remains reasonable to keep rates steady given uncertainty, but warning the Fed may need to act “soon” if inflation does not continue to cool.
Looking ahead, the main focus for markets remains Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report.
US
FED’S HAMMACK (2026 voter, hawk): The Cleveland Fed president, one of the dissenters who voted to remove the easing bias from the Fed’s statement, said that it is reasonable to keep rates steady for now, given uncertainties. Hammack added that the Fed may need to act soon if inflation trends do not cool. She warned that there are risks to waiting for signs that high inflation is becoming embedded in the economy, and her main concern is a growing risk of persistent inflation pressures. We are not yet seeing signs that inflation expectations are rising. She is also worried that monetary policy may not be tight enough to lower inflation. Hammack continues to put her focus on the inflation side of the mandate, noting she is firmly committed to getting inflation back to the 2% target. She added that the economy is facing a broadening array of factors that are driving up inflation, noting how sharp energy shocks are hard for monetary policy to deal with. On the labour market, she said data points to stability and that the unemployment rate is around full employment levels.
JOLTS: Job openings surged to 7.618mln in April from 6.866mln, well above the 6.82mln forecast and the highest level in two years. The vacancy rate rose to 4.6% from 4.2%, while the quits rate eased to 1.9% from 2.0%. Despite the strong headline, Oxford Economics cautions that the report likely overstates labour market strength as the increase in openings did not translate into a higher hiring rate. The consultancy notes that much of the increase was concentrated in a single sector, professional and business services. Oxford writes that “for now, the labour market remains mostly stable”, noting that with both the quits rate and layoff rate edging lower, neither employees nor employers appear in a hurry to make major moves. The desk notes that overall, the report points to a labour market that remains stable rather than one that is reaccelerating sharply.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (U6) SETTLED 3 TICKS HIGHER AT 109-22+
T-notes flatten as rising oil prices drive Treasury trade, with above-expected JOLTS data only briefly adding to yield upside. At settlement, 2-year +1.2bps at 4.045%, 3-year +1.3bps at 4.093%, 5-year +0.7bps at 4.174%, 7-year +0.6bps at 4.307%, 10-year unchanged at 4.453%, 20-year -0.6bps at 4.966%, 30-year -0.4bps at 4.967%.
THE DAY: T-notes saw two-way trade on Tuesday, with gradual gains overnight and through the European morning before reversing in the US session. The curve flattened as front-end yields rose around 1bp while 20- and 30-year yields edged lower.
The primary driver of Treasury price action remains crude oil. Energy prices caught a bid after Fars News reported that the US and Iran had halted communications via mediators. The move higher in crude supported yields, although session highs in rates were briefly seen following the US JOLTS report. JOLTS job openings surprised to the upside, although analysts at Oxford Economics argued the strength likely overstates underlying labour market conditions, noting the increase was concentrated in a single sector and did not translate into stronger hiring. The consultancy ultimately views the report as consistent with a labour market that remains stable rather than one that is reaccelerating.
The initial data-induced sell-off quickly pared before yields gradually moved higher again alongside crude prices through the remainder of the session. Oil gains held despite President Trump dismissing reports that communications with Iran had ceased, labelling the reports as “fake news”. Meanwhile, attention remains on Israel-Hezbollah negotiations in Washington, where key differences remain unresolved. Reports suggest the US is seeking a comprehensive ceasefire by the conclusion of tomorrow’s round of talks.
Aside from geopolitics, focus now turns to Friday’s May nonfarm payrolls report.
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Pricing: Dec 17.5bps (prev. 17.9bps)
- EFFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.62%), volumes at USD 123bln (prev. USD 109bln) on June 1st
- SOFR at 3.65% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 3.224tln (prev. USD 3.201tln) on June 1st
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 2.50bln (prev. 1.30bln) across 32 counterparties (prev. 5) on June 2nd
CRUDE
WTI (N6) SETTLED USD 1.60 HIGHER AT 93.76/BBL; BRENT (Q6) SETTLED USD 1.02 HIGHER AT 96.00/BBL
The crude complex settled with gains and continually edged higher throughout the duration of the US session. While Middle East headlines were conflicting, and many of the more recent ones seem of a more positive nature, the headline which sparked the initial strength in oil was a Fars report. It stated that informed sources said that the exchange of messages between Iran and the US, aimed at achieving what has been described as an initial MoU between Tehran and Washington, has been halted for at least several days. Since then, despite WTI and Brent hitting fresh highs, US Secretary of State Rubio said they are in talks with Iran, and that the “war in Iran is over”. Meanwhile, Amwaj Media citing a senior Iranian political source, said there has not been any halt in communication with the US via intermediaries, and that movement on multiple parallel yet interconnected tracks suggests they may be on the cusp of something. Trump soon echoed this, adding that reports that Iran and the US stopped speaking a few days ago are false, and conversations have been going on continuously, but one way or another, Iran needs to make a deal.
Away from US/Iran but still on the Middle East footing, Israeli Broadcasting Authority, citing sources, said negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are progressing well, while AFP reported that Hezbollah will not accept a “partial ceasefire” deal with Israel. In more recent commentary, Sky News Arabia remarked that the Israel/Lebanon delegations have not yet been able to reach decisive points regarding the ceasefire issue, but the US seeks to reach a comprehensive ceasefire at the end of tomorrow’s round of negotiations.
On the supply front, Iraq plans to increase crude oil exports via pipelines from 220k BPD to 770k BPD in two phases over two and a half months, and plans to raise crude oil exports by truck to neighbouring countries to 420k BPD in three phases.
Ahead, private inventory metrics are due after-hours, with focus, as always, on any further geopolitical updates ahead of the main macro event this week being US NFP on Friday. On Tuesday, WTI traded between USD 90.12-94.00/bbl and Brent USD 92.83-96.28/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.13% at 7,610, NDX +0.48% at 30,661, DJI +0.45% at 51,313, RUT +0.90% at 2,932.
SECTORS: Utilities +1.93%, Materials +1.16%, Industrials +1.00%, Energy +0.99%, Technology +0.92%, Real Estate +0.42%, Financials +0.04%, Consumer Staples -0.10%, Consumer Discretionary -0.71%, Health -0.99%, Communication Services -2.61%
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +1.17% at 6,106, DAX +0.48% at 25,124, FTSE 100 +0.33% at 10,374, CAC 40 +0.77% at 8,209, AEX +1.26% at 1,049, IBEX 35 +0.48% at 18,272, FTSE MIB +1.61% at 50,579, SMI +0.00% at 13,306, PSI -0.03% at 8,958.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Huang says it has capacity to supply robust AI growth despite constraints.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): EPS, rev. beat, lifted next Q/FY profit view & highlighted strong server demand tied to AI infrastructure growth
- Microchip Technology (MCHP): Expects data centre solutions business to grow c. 65% to ~ USD 500mln in CY26.
- STMicroelectronics (STM): ’26 data centre rev. now exp. at ~$1bln (prev. 500mln+) & said it could double in ’27
- Marvell Technology (MRVL): At Computex conference, Nvidia chief Huang reportedly said next tln-dollar Co. will be Marvell
- Alphabet (GOOGL) plans to raise $80bln for AI goals & Berkshire to invest $10bln
- Signet Jewelers (SIG): EPS beat
- Dollar General (DG): Bottom line topped & lifted FY26 profit view
- Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) partner on Unified Stack for Agentic AI.
FX
The Dollar saw mixed performance vs. G10 peers, whereby the DXY traded within a pretty narrow range as ING writes that the 99.0-99.50 range remains the ‘comfort zone’ for now. Adding that it embeds lower oil prices but also reflects the broadly stronger macro backing for the dollar. In ING’s view, the latter factor could be reinforced by this week’s US data calendar. In terms of broader moves, geopolitics remains front and centre for now, with the main US data event on Friday: US NFP. On the labour market, JOLTs Job Openings for April surged to 7.618mln, against the expected 6.82mln, and prior 6.866mln. Within the report, quits rate dipped to 1.9% (prev. 2.0%), and vacancy rate 4.6% (prev. 4.1%, rev. 4.2%). Regarding the Fed, hawkish 2026 voter Hammack remarked it is reasonable to keep rates steady for now given the uncertainties, and that the Fed may need to act ‘soon’ if inflation trends don’t cool.
AUD outperformed, followed by the Pound, while the Yen lagged and USD/JPY topped out at 159.99, a whisker away from the round 160 level everyone is watching for potential intervention. On that, ING quipped that the risk of new intervention does look a bit underpriced, and that markets may be assuming the BoJ will wait to see whether a 16th June hike can cap USD/JPY. But, they added that the new bar may be set well above the 160.60 level where they intervened in April, perhaps 162-163. On that front, Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires overnight, where she said that they are “closely coordinating with the US on FX”.
On the two outperformers, while newsflow was fairly sparse, the Aussie was seemingly buoyed by metals prices and an encouraging performance from China overnight. Note, RBA’s Harper said persistent inflation is a genuine concern, and market measures of inflation have gone up, which is a worry. Cable traded between a tight 1.3446-82, albeit with a couple of BoE speakers. Governor Bailey said policymakers are facing a trade-off between growth and inflation, while Greene noted the case for hiking rates grows as the conflict continues, with monetary policy tightening over the next few weeks or months potentially necessary.
EUR was flat and saw limited reaction to the as-expected EZ CPI, whereby core Y/Y topped expectations alongside a jump in the Services figure. The euro was little moved by the report, given that it plays in favour of a hike in June, which was already near enough fully priced in pre-release. CHF saw marginal pressure, and within tight ranges, although SNB Chairman remarked real overvaluation of the Swiss Franc is clearly lower than the nominal overvaluation, and that the central bank has raised readiness to intervene to deal with an overvaluation pressure due to the Middle East escalation.
For the Brazilian watchers, USTR proposed to impose tariffs of 25% on all imports from Brazil, except for goods that are subject to Section 232 national security tariffs. Finally, the Polish Zloty was unmoved by the NBP keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected.
USA DATA RELEASE/
Shocking JOLTS: Job Openings Soar By 731K, 9-Sigma Beat, As Quits Bizarrely Plunge To 6 Year Low
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 10:44 AM
We had to do a double take when the BLS reported today’s JOLTS job openings: with consensus expecting no change from last month’s print of 6.866MM, and near the lowest in two years, moments ago a flashing red headline revealed that in April the US added a stunning 731K jobs to 7.618 million, up from an upward revised 6.887 million, and up 520K from a year ago.
For context, this was a 9 sigma beat to expectations, the biggest beat in history.
WTF!?… and how is this possible at a time when companies are mass laying off thanks to AI? Well, according to the BLS,the number of job openings increased in professional and business services (+668,000), and also rose in manufacturing, manufacturing, and – alas – government. Jobs stumbled in finance and insurance (-135,000).
This was the biggest monthly increase in professional and business services by a huge margin. It wasn’t clear what exactly job category prompted this surge.
Meanwhile, the draining of the swamp appears to be officially over with government jobs jumping by 47K to 777K, the biggest monthly increase this year.
The historic surge in April job openings, coupled with the modest increase in unemployed workers means that after 9 months of labor surplus, there were 245K more job openings than unemployed workers in April, a reversal to the “deficit” regime observed since last July.
The surge in openings also means that after falling back to 0.9x in March, in April the ratio of job openings rose back to 1.0x and was the highest since January 2025.
But while the job openings number was a shock, this month we saw a reversal of last month’s surge in hires and quits, and in April both the number of Quits and Hires, tumbled once more. Specifically, hires plunged by 419K to 4.899 million, while quits – or the “take his job and shove it” indicator – plunged by 183K, or 5.8%, to 2.977 million, the lowest since 2020 and the biggest percentage drop since April 2025, as Americans are suddenly allergic to leaving their jobs on their own.
It goes without saying that a surge in job openings even as nobody is leaving their jobs, leads one to scratch their head just what is going on here, besides data massaging of course.
In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the April payrolls report slumped to 115K from 185K in March.
Overall, this was a shockingly strong JOLTS report – so strong in fact one wonders who at the BLS had a fat finger incident when calculating the professional and business services job openings, and shows that after some significant weakness in late 2025, US labor market has continued to stabilize in early 2026. Of course, the report also lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Friday’s jobs report will be.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
The Fed Never Beat Inflation… and Now a Second Round Has Arrived
by Phoenix Capital Research
Monday, Jun 01, 2026 – 17:34
The Fed wanted you to believe inflation was beaten.
It wasn’t.
The annual inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit 3.8% for the 12 months ending April. That’s the highest reading in nearly three years. And bear in mind, CPI is designed to UNDER-state the true rate of inflation.
Month over Month, April’s CPI print came in at 0.6%. Core CPI jumped 0.4% for the month and is running at 2.8% year-over-year. That’s well above the Fed’s 2% target, and it’s moving in the wrong direction.
Most of the financial media is pinning this on the Iran conflict. And yes, energy is a significant part of the story. Gas prices are up 28.4% over the past year. Consumers are paying $4.50 per gallon on average, up from $3.14 a year ago.
But the more important story is what’s happening outside of energy.
Shelter is the single largest component of the inflation data with a weighting of ~30%. It just spiked 0.6% in a single month. And this is one of the slowest moving portions of CPI.
I wish that was the end of the bad news, but it’s not.
The Producer Price Index — which tells you what’s coming down the pipeline to consumers — rose 1.4% for the month of April, the biggest gain since March 2022. PPI is now running at 6% annually. Producers can’t absorb those costs for long. They will be forced to pass them on.
To be clear: this is broad-based. Services are accelerating. Goods are holding elevated. The inflation that was supposed to be transitory, then beaten, is now re-accelerating across multiple categories simultaneously.
Meanwhile, real average hourly wages fell 0.3% annually. Inflation is outrunning paychecks. That’s the part nobody in Washington wants to talk about. And the K-shaped economy in which the top 10% of incomes do great and everyone else is getting pinched will only work for so long. Eventually the consumer as a whole will tap out.
Put simply, the Fed is in a difficult position. Hike to fight inflation and you risk cracking a fragile economy. Hold rates and purchasing power continues to erode. Neither option is good for paper assets.
The next CPI print is June 10. If you’re not positioned in hard assets — energy, precious metals, real resources — you’re betting this resolves on its own.
I wouldn’t make that bet.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to profit from the next major bull run in precious metals miners.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains my top precious metals plays, including their names, their symbols, and the resources they own. These are HIGH OCTANE positions that rallied 75%, 140%, 150%, 180%, 280% and an incredible 574% in 2025. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see them repeat this performance in 2026.
Normally I’d charge $499 for this report as a standalone item, but in light of what is unfolding today, we are making just 100 copies available to the public.
To grab one of the last remaining copies…
END
Trump Slashes Tractor Tariffs In Bid To Revive Ag Belt Optimism
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 06:55 AM
The Trump administration appears to be trying to inject new optimism across the nation’s farm belt following the China meeting last month, during which Beijing committed to making billions of dollars of new purchases of U.S. agricultural goods. The White House’s latest move is to reduce tariffs on tractors and combines, a policy shift aimed at easing cost pressures on farmers already squeezed by diesel, fertilizer, and machinery costs.
Late Monday, President Trump signed a proclamation slashing tariffs on imported agricultural equipment, including combines and harvesters, from 25% to 15% to lower costs for US farmers and manufacturers.
More color from the White House:
- The Proclamation adjusts the tariffs on agricultural equipment, like combines and harvesters, as well as certain other equipment, from 25% to 15%.
- The Proclamation also expands the existing category of industrial equipment subject to a 15% tariff to include mobile industrial equipment, like bulldozers and forklifts, when imported from trade deal countries that are entitled to such treatment.
- The Proclamation encourages foreign companies to use more U.S. steel and aluminum by allowing them to qualify for a 10% duty rate, if their capital equipment include at least 85% U.S. melted and poured or smelted and cast steel or aluminum by weight.
- These tariff changes are temporary, lasting until December 31, 2027, to spur near–term investments that will rebuild the Nation’s industrial base.
The move is a clear attempt by the Trump administration to spur optimism across the nation’s farm belt following China’s commitments last month to purchase $17 billion annually in additional U.S. agricultural goods.
The latest reading of the US ag economy via the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer has been fading from a summer 2025 peak as trade wars and, now, the Gulf-related energy shock hurt farmers’ incomes.
Trump’s directive sent shares of the Japanese agricultural and industrial machinery company Kubota up 5% in Tokyo trading.
Efforts to boost farmer sentiment come ahead of the midterm election cycle, which is gearing up and is only 154 days away.
END
DNI BILL PULTE
Trump Taps Housing Regulator Bill Pulte As Acting Director Of National Intelligence
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 09:21 AM
President Trump said Tuesday that he is appointing Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to serve as acting director of national intelligence after Tulsi Gabbard leaves the post.
Gabbard announced her resignation on May 22, citing her husband Abraham Williams’ recent diagnosis with a rare form of bone cancer. Her resignation is effective June 30, meaning Pulte’s appointment would mark a change from Trump’s earlier statement that Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Aaron Lukas would serve as acting intelligence chief after Gabbard’s departure.
Pulte is expected to continue leading the FHFA while serving as chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage companies that play a central role in the U.S. housing finance system. The arrangement would place a close Trump ally simultaneously near the center of federal housing finance and atop the U.S. Intelligence Community, which is made up of 18 organizations.
“I am appointing the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and Chairman of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, William J. Pulte, to serve as Acting Director of National Intelligence,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “William has deep experience managing the most sensitive matters in America, the safety and soundness of the Markets, and over 10 Trillion Dollars at Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, a substantial increase from where it was just 12 months ago. During this period, he will remain Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and Chairman of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac. Congratulations to Director Pulte!”
Pulte, 38, is the grandson of William J. Pulte, founder of PulteGroup, which describes itself as the nation’s third-largest homebuilder. Before entering government, the younger Pulte was known for private-equity work tied to housing and building products, as well as high-profile online philanthropy. He was sworn in as FHFA director on March 14, 2025, after Senate confirmation.
Since taking office, Pulte has turned the FHFA, historically a low-profile housing regulator, into a far more visible political force. His tenure has included board and leadership changes at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and public mortgage-fraud referrals involving several Trump critics, moves that have drawn scrutiny from Democrats and watchdogs.
The director of national intelligence position was created after the Sept. 11 attacks to improve coordination across the Intelligence Community. The DNI serves as the head of the U.S. Intelligence Community and as the principal intelligence adviser to the president, the National Security Council and the Homeland Security Council. The community includes the CIA, NSA, DIA, FBI intelligence branch and other military and civilian intelligence elements.
Unlike most past confirmed DNIs, Pulte is not known for a career in intelligence, diplomacy, military command or national-security policy. His selection on an acting basis would put a housing-finance official in charge of coordinating U.S. intelligence agencies during a period of personnel upheaval inside Trump’s national-security team.
Developing…
END
Pentagon Restricts Press Office Access Over Privacy Concerns
Tuesday, Jun 02, 2026 – 03:05 PM
The Pentagon announced Monday that reporters will no longer have open access to the War Department’s public affairs office after the space was redesignated as a classified facility to accommodate staff handling sensitive material.
The announcement marks the latest effort by the Pete Hegseth-led War Department to tighten operational security and reshape longstanding media access practices inside the Pentagon.
Under the new policy, the Pentagon’s public affairs office has been converted into a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility, commonly known as a SCIF.
The office had previously allowed journalists to enter without escorts and directly approach military public affairs officials with questions.
Pentagon spokesman Joel Valdez said the change was necessary because speechwriters working in the office routinely handle classified material and require access to secure government systems.
“This is the most transparent War Department in history. No amount of spin from the Fake News media will change that,” Valdez wrote in a post on X.
“These speechwriters routinely handle classified material and require SIPRNet access. As a result, journalists will no longer be permitted to enter the office space. There’s nothing controversial about that,” he added.
Valdez said reporters will still have access to the Pentagon press secretary and the Assistant to the Secretary of War for Public Affairs through scheduled appointments.
The policy change comes months after War Secretary Pete Hegseth imposed additional restrictions on media operations at the Pentagon.
Last October, the department introduced new rules allowing officials to revoke press credentials from reporters designated as security risks.
The New York Times subsequently filed two lawsuits against the Pentagon, arguing the restrictions violate First Amendment protections. Both cases remain pending in court.
KING NEWS
| The King Report June 2, 2026 Issue 7754 | Independent View of the News |
| On Monday, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Iran has suspended all diplomatic communication and messages with the US, due to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah. @HormuzLetter: Iran says it has now decided to execute the full blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as the next operational step following the announcement of ending all negotiations and communication with the US, per Tasnim. @MattooShashank: “Iran got the bomb from Pakistan. And now, Iran is going to Pakistan to negotiate their nuclear program with America. So, we in America are hoping that Iran is going to give up the bomb they got from Pakistan while back in Pakistan?” says historian Stephen Kotkin (Hoover Institute) https://x.com/MattooShashank/status/2060963628598337894 CNBC’s @EamonJavers: I spoke to President Trump on the phone last hour about the end of negotiations with the Iranians. He told me: “I don’t care if they’re over, honestly. I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less. If they’re over, they’re over. If they’re not, you know, I think they took too much time. Frankly, I thought they started to get very boring.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/trump-iran-war-negotiations-oil-israel-interview.html President Trump responds to reports that Iran has suspended talks with the U.S., telling NBC News’ Garrett Haake: “I think we’ve been talking too much if you want to know the truth. (Whose fault is that, Donnie?) I think going silent would be very good, and that could be that could be for a long time.” “It doesn’t mean we’re going to go and start dropping bombs all over there. We’ll just go silent. We’ll keep the blockade. Blockade is a piece of steel.” “I think I can wait as long as they want. They’re losing a fortune…” https://x.com/RedWavePress/status/2061485874852847890 Despite the very negative Iran news, the usual suspects poured into Fangs and AI-related stocks. Bubbles inflate, regardless of the fundamentals, until they burst. You can look it up! The NY Fang+ Index was +1.68% at 9:46 ET. The SOX Index was +1.37% at 11:42 ET. Gasoline and oil soared in early trading; bonds declined moderately. Gold got hammered on the higher interest rates. The DJIA and DJTA traded moderately lower. IBM Shares Surge (10.13%) as Old (6 months) Clip of Trump Praise Recirculates Online – BBG The movement underscores the scale of the speculative mania that’s sweeping through corners of the market as the artificial intelligence boom sets off a stampede into tech stacks… It also reflects Trump’s willingness to champion particular companies and industries… (It really is that stupid/manic now!) ESMs traded moderately lower after they opened on Sunday night, but quickly commenced a rally that took them to 7619.75 at 23:29 ET. ESMs then traded in 14 handle range until they spiked to a daily high of 7623.00 at 7:38 ET. The Iran news broke, ESMs sank to a daily low of 7576.25 (-19.50) at 9:28 ET. Traders conditioned to buy opening dips and play for the Monday rally and start of the month rally eagerly bought bubble stocks and ESMs. After gyrating in a 20-handle range, ESMs broke higher after Europe closed at 11:30 ET. After a retreat to 7857.00 at 12:18 ET, ESMs soared on Trump. Trump on Truth Social 12:29 ET: I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel… Talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran… @SGhasseminejad: The Islamist regime in Tehran believes it has won the war and that the United States is desperate for a deal. Actions like these (DJT collaring Israel) only strengthen the regime’s conviction that Washington is negotiating from a position of weakness. @Osint613: Israel called off a major strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs at the last minute after U.S. intervention. Kan News. Just the facts: Iran says talks are off due to Israel strikes on their client Hezbollah. Trump surfaces to state that it’s okay with him that Iran talks are off because there ‘has been too much talk,’ even though he’s the incessant yapper. Trump then intervenes and collars Israel. So, who is desperate for a deal? NB: Trump admits that he did NOT talk to Hezbollah directly even though he promotes that “I had a very good call with Hezbollah…” ESMs hit a daily high of 7632.25 (+36.50) at 13:43 ET. ESMs then retreated modestly and traded in a tight range until they broke lower near 15:30 ET on this: Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו @netanyahu: Tonight, I spoke with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not cease attacking our cities and citizens—Israel will attack terror targets in Beirut. This stance of ours remains unchanged. In parallel, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon. 3:32 PM · Jun 1, 2026 ESMs fell to 7611.50 at 15:59 ET and inched up to 7613.50 at 16:00 ET. “You’re f***ing crazy”: Trump fumes at Netanyahu in call on Lebanon – Axios Summarizing Trump’s remarks to Netanyahu, the U.S. official said: “You’re f***ing crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.” A second source briefed on the call said Trump was “pissed” and at one point yelled at Netanyahu: “What the f*** are you doing?”… https://www.axios.com/2026/06/01/trump-netanyahu-israel-lebanon-call Positive aspects of previous session Fangs and AI-related bubble stocks inflated further. The SOX Index was +2.09% at its peak. The S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq, the Nas 100, and the NY Fang+ Index hit all-time highs. USMs rebound from -20/32 (9:59 ET) to +7/32 (13:43 ET) Negative aspects of previous session Stock breadth was poor: S&P 500: 210 Advances vs. 293 Declines; Nasdaq: 1350 Advs vs 1522 Declines Ambiguous aspects of previous session Trump says there has been too much talk about Iran talks. Doesn’t he know who’s been too verbose? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7593.41 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7617.66 (13:43 ET); 7562.61 (9:30 ET) @ksadjadpour: “The Iranian negotiation style is generally known in the world as the ‘bazaar style,’ which means continuous and tireless bargaining,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in his 2025 diplomatic memoir. “This method is a process of interaction that requires great patience and time,” and thus, “he who gets tired and bored quickly will lose.” Trump says Iran deal could be reached ‘over next week’ after fixing ‘glitch’ of Israel-Hezbollah fighting – Times of Israel @JTheretohelp1: S&P average single-stock 1m put-call skew has now collapsed to the lowest level in Goldman Sachs entire dataset. Translation: Everyone is a bull. https://x.com/JTheretohelp1/status/2061463104983113807 Alphabet to Raise $80 Billion in Equity for AI Spending – BBG 17:13 ET $40 billion so-called-at-the-market program to sell shares… $30 billion in underwritten offerings and mandatory convertible preferred stock, as well as the $10 billion deal with Berkshire… Today – For months, the daily game has been buying trading sardines and bubble stocks – and trading Iran reports. Occasionally, transitory valuation rotations have appeared. This dynamic will be challenged today due to Alphabet’s (Google) massive offering of stock in coming weeks and months. Will the usual suspects, great and small, absorb the liquidation of trading sardines and AI bubble stocks? Or will ‘they’ be overwhelmed? The action today should be very, very revealing. Plus, will Trump-Iran roulette spin for us? ESMs are -34.25; NQMs are -222.25; WTI is -$0.35; gasoline is -1.72¢; USMs are +9/32 at 21:53a ET. Expected impact economic data: April JOLTS Job Openings 6.857m; Quits 3.12m, Quits Rate 1.9%, Layoffs 1.898m; May Omdia Total Vehicle Sales 16.0m; KC Fed Press Hammack 8:30 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 7078; 100-day MA: 6972; 150-day MA: 6919; 200-day MA: 6837 DJIA 50-day MA: 48,669;100-day MA: 48,740; 150-day MA: 48,386; 200-day MA: 47,768 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (7599.96 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6078.33 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6795.95 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7490.36 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7587.74 triggers a sell signal History tells us that after Trump’s reign, the zillions of people that he has demeaned, heckled, and abused will exact revenge – and with extreme prejudice! | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Massachusetts Sues UnitedHealthcare Over Alleged $100 Million Fraud
Monday, Jun 01, 2026 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times,
Massachusetts sued UnitedHealthcare on May 29, alleging the company defrauded the state’s Medicaid program by making seniors appear sicker than they were to secure higher payments.
The company contracted with MassHealth to provide a Senior Care Options—which combines Medicare and Medicaid benefits into one plan—for seniors aged 65 and older.
UnitedHealthcare allegedly received more than $100 million in fraudulent payments from MassHealth between 2015 and 2025, Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell stated in the complaint.
UnitedHealthcare, a subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group, said the complaint is “meritless and doesn’t accurately describe our Senior Care Options program” in a statement emailed to The Epoch Times.
The legal complaint alleged UnitedHealthcare inflated payment rates in three ways.
Upcoding
Massachusetts paid UnitedHealthcare a per-member, per-month rate for each senior enrolled in the plan based on UnitedHealthcare’s assessments of the member’s health conditions.
UnitedHealthcare allegedly labeled members as having behavioral health disorders such as depression or anxiety, or substance use disorders to gain higher reimbursement rates, according to the complaint, when the members had no diagnosis or treatment on record for such conditions.
An analysis by the attorney general’s office revealed that nearly 30 percent of UnitedHealthcare’s 2014 through 2024 behavioral health assessments lacked any matching medical claims to support the mental health diagnoses reported to the state.
Keeping Overpayments
The insurer’s internal reviews identified that many members were incorrectly placed in the highest and most expensive level of care despite not qualifying for it, according to the lawsuit.
While the company eventually downgraded these members to lower-paying levels, it allegedly failed to inform the state of the prior errors or return the extra money it had already collected.
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Unneeded or Nonexistent Nursing Services
The insurer was paid $1.4 billion for members who did not qualify for the most expensive status, but the insurer justified the rate by submitting assessments claiming members required daily or frequent skilled nursing care, the complaint alleged.
However, an investigation revealed that most of these members neither received nor actually needed the specialized nursing services, according to the complaint.
Out of more than 88,000 assessments for the highest payment level, UnitedHealthcare asserted that 99.3 percent of those members were receiving nursing visits seven days a week. However, the complaint alleged that almost 90 percent of those members had not received a single nursing visit in the week before UnitedHealthcare filed the assessment.
Arguments
A January Senate report accused UnitedHealth Group of using high-tech scanners and a team of specialists to capture profitable, extra diagnoses in beneficiaries to maximize federal payments from the Medicare Advantage program.
The corporation issued a statement that same day, citing studies that it had commissioned to argue that Medicare Advantage saves money for both the government and beneficiaries.
The Attorney General’s Office alleged that these were intentional failures, the result of a “growth at all costs” strategy employed by UnitedHealthcare that incentivized and encouraged field nurses to code MassHealth members as sicker or less able than they were.
Bernadette Di Re, the CEO of UnitedHealthcare’s plan in Massachusetts from 2011 through 2020, allegedly attributed pressure to “cut staff,” “[g]et more numbers,” and “[g]et more money from the state” as the reason she resigned and left the company, the lawsuit stated.
“The state’s managed care plans need to act in good faith on behalf of their members and the financial resources of our state’s Medicaid program. Our investigation found that UnitedHealthcare knowingly violated these obligations by manipulating health assessments to increase its profits,” said Campbell in a statement.
The company responded in a statement: “The Attorney General is simply wrong that Massachusetts seniors with complex care needs should not be receiving the support and services UnitedHealthcare is helping to provide. We remain focused on working with our state partner to help our members live healthier lives.”
END
LOS ANGELES
L.A.’s Choice: More Dysfunction Or Spencer Pratt?
Monday, Jun 01, 2026 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Victoria Taft via PJ Media,
Spencer Pratt has a “shot” to win the Los Angeles mayor’s race, according to the latest polling.
The first thing Angelenos need to begin the biggest turnaround in L.A. history, however, is to admit the city has a problem: self-imposed dysfunction. Then they need to vote for someone who didn’t relish in causing it.
The choice going into Tuesday’s top two primary election is really that simple.
As we go into the final day of voting in the Los Angeles mayoral race, there are three candidates leading the pack: the worst and most destructive mayor of all time, Karen Bass, Bass’s radical, ideological twin and stalking horse, Nithya Raman, and Spencer Pratt.
Bass and Raman have been accused of teaming up to flood the zone with commies to game California’s top-two primary system. The top-two system is the Democrat protection act in real time. For normies, to the extent L.A. has them, Pratt is their only hope in this race.
Voters, some of whose ballots were burned up in a “safe” downtown L.A. drop box over the weekend, need to move the needle to the only person in the race who thinks there’s a problem.
Pratt believes that the answer to “homelessness” is drug treatment, welcomes the feds’ raid of cartel-run open-air drug and human trafficking, and thinks current laws on the books should be enforced to clean up the city. He has made animal abuse by drug addicts on L.A.’s Skid Row a signature issue.
An L.A. area Democratic adviser told the Los Angeles Times that “anyone has a shot” in this race.
And the latest polling by U.C. Berkeley and the L.A. Times shows that it’s a dogfight. Karen Bass has 26% support by those polled, Raman is at 25%, and Spencer Pratt, whose house was destroyed in Bass’s Pacific Palisades fire disaster, is at 22%.
Pratt describes this campaign as his destiny. The former reality TV star, whose recent days have been spent touting his wife’s music career and taking care of their sons, feeding and loving his Pacific Palisades hummingbirds which he uses as his campaign’s logo, and trading in valuable crystals (at one point he believed he’d lost $1 million in crystals in the fire), he has become a man on fire after learning and publicly exposing the incompetence and unpreparedness leading to the January 2025 fires.
Pratt says, “We are going to win.”
But don’t take his word for it. Watch how his top opponents have attempted to retcon their own public records by suddenly declaring that homelessness and crime are big issues. Bass, the anti-cop, pro-Cuban revolunciónista, has done next to zero to clean up drug and trafficking encampments around businesses and schools, and has fought efforts to do so, but now touts she’s “reduced street homelessness by 17.5%.” Suddenly, she’s the solution to her own problem!
And how bad are things in Bass’s L.A.? She’s touting a plan to switch street lights to solar power because all the druggies have stolen the copper in the current ones. How brave and visionary is the woman who stops cops from doing their jobs?
Hilariously, the defund the police and fire lady is also taking credit for President Donald Trump and FBI Director Kash Patel’s drop in crime that the L.A. Times straight-facedly reports, “includ[es] a homicide rate not seen since the mid-20th century.” Do tell, Karen.
Raman, a sitting councilwoman who endorsed Bass until she was convinced that the best way to help her friend was to take up space in the mayor’s race, has made similar 59th minute of the 11th hour political conversions.
The only way L.A. can solve its problems is to hire the guy who wants to solve them, not just talk about it.
Go Spencer.
GREG HUNTER…
harveyorganblog.com 
