JUNE 12//WE AWAIT PATIENTLY FOR SIGNING OF THE M o U BETWEEN THE USA AND IRAN: GOLD CLOSED UP $123.30 TO $4218.80 WITH SILVER UP $3.34 TO $67.86//PLATINUM WAS UP $14.30 TO $1697.50 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP ANOTHER $39.05 TO $1288.05//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT COURTESY OF ALASDAIR MACLEOD AND ALSO THE LAST 24 HOURS COURTESY OF RABOBANK//EXCELLENT STUDY ON THE DEMOGRAPHICS WITHIN CHINA: THEY MAVE A MASSIVE PROBLEM AND IT STARTED WITH THEIR ONE CHILD POLICY//EUROPEAN REPORTS TONIGHT FROM FRANCE AND THE UK//IRAN VS USA/ISRAEL UPDATES/ISRAEL TBN/HEZBOLLAH UPDATES//GABBARD RELEASES DOCUMENTS SHOWING THE GOVERNMENT FUNDED 130 BIOLABS!!! FOR WHAT PURPOSE?//OIL REPORTS//PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN START FIGHTING AGAIN//USA DATA RELEASES// USA ECONOMIC REPORTS WITH THE BIG BLACKROCK GATING INVESTORS//KING NEWS/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
072 H GOLDMAN 1 092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 442 099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 503 167 C MAREX 3 190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 2 323 C HSBC 120 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 308 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 1778 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2131 1 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 737 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 9 709 C BARCLAYS 827 20 726 C PLUS500US FINANCIAL 1 905 C ADM 41 991 H CME 198
TOTAL: 3,561 3,561 MONTH TO DATE: 33,224
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 13/196
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2026: 3561 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 356,100 OZ or11.076 TONNES
total notices so far: 33,224 contracts FOR 3,322,400 OZ OR 103.334 TONNES
JUNE 12
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SILVER NOTICES: 14 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 70,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2181 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 10.905 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $129.30 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $3.34 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.769 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//// : INVENTORY RESTS AT THE SLV AT 482,383 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 482.383 MILLION
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1337 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 107,210 A LOT HIGHER FROM ITS NEW RECORD LOW OF 95,999 SET MAY 1/2026. THE RECORD HIGH OI FOR SILVER IS 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS MEGA HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.12 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. ON THE FIRST OF MAY, WE REACHED OUR RECORD LOW OI OF 95,999 SURPASSING EVERY DAY NEW OI LOWS SET DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL 2026.
NOW ON A NET BASIS OUR SPECULATORS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO GOING SHORT. THE FRBNY ON A NET BASIS IS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER TO OUR LONGS ALONG WITH SOME BULLION BANKS AND THEN A HUGE NUMBERS OF LONGS ,OUR CENTRAL BANKERS, TAKE THE LONG SIDE AND TENDER FOR PHYSICAL AT 4 PM EACH NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HUGE SHORTFALL IN PHYSICAL SILVER IN LONDON THERE IS A LOTTERY TO SEE WHO GETS ANY OF THE PHYSICAL SILVER AVAILABLE THAT WHICH THEY ARE OBLIGATED TO DELIVER. THEY WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THEIR PHYSICAL METAL AND IF NOBODY GETS ANY THEY THEN COME BACK THE NEXT DAY AND SO ON. THIS IS IN LONDON, THE HOME OF PHYSICAL SILVER!! THE FACT THAT WE ARE WITNESSING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON HIGHLIGHTS THE FACT THAT THE COMEX IS OUT OF SILVER AS WELL.
WE ARE FINALLY MOVING TO A MUCH HIGHER BASE IN SILVER PRICING AT MAJOR SUPPORT LEVEL OF $70.00. SHORTLY WE WILL AGAIN ATTEMPT TO BREAK
WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1947 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A STRONG SIZED SIZED 610 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE , WE HAD NO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY TRADING// WE HAD A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 3452 CONTRACT T.A.S. ISSUANCE!! / THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $100.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON THURSDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE
THE PRICE STILL FINISHED BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $70.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE BUT STILL BELOW THE $100.00 MARK CLOSING AT $64.52 DOWN $0.12. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WAS A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED 3,452 T.A.S. CONTRACTS !!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING ABOVE THE 100.00 DOLLAR MARK!! AND NOW THE HUGE SUPPORT LEVEL OF 70 DOLLARS IS BROKEN!!.MAMMOTH SIZE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE BECOMING THE NORM AT THE COMEX NOW!!
THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 100.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 610 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR HUGE SIZED 3,452 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING//AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE.
IN ESSENCE WE HAD A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1848 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DEDSPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.12. WE HAD HUGE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING ALL WEEK AND A MAJOR PORTION WILL BE REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE STICKY SPECULATOR LONGS STILL REMAIN STOIC
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.
THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, THROUGHOUT MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 3,452 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THESE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS).
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS AS ONE UNIT, BUT SELL THE SHORT SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE LONG SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 55,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 12.015 MILLION OZ//
SUMMARY OF OUR JUNE 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
WE HAD:
/ MEGA HUGE COMEX GAIN+// STRONG SIZED 610 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS (/ VI) A MEGA HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 3,452 CONTRACTS
XX I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 145 SILVER CONTRACT//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE.. ACCUMULATION
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 DAY(S), total 6281 contracts: OR 31.405 MILLION OZ (628 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 31.405 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE..31.405 MILION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1238 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.12 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE OF 610 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS).
INITIAL STANDING: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.015 MILLION OZ
LAST 14 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 55,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT: 12.015 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FOR TODAY (3,452) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING!
WE HAD 14 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 70,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY BANKERS
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4744 OI CONTRACTS UP TO 341,279 OI AND THUS SURPASSES BY A CONSIDERABLE MARGIN THE ALL TIME LOW AT 326,052 SET JUNE3/2026 AND THIS OI IS MUCH FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE HAVE NOW ADVANCED PAST THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS OF 357,136 SET APRIL 2/.2026AND 354,581 SET AT THE END OF APRIL 2026. WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAY FROM OUR TWO DECADES OLD: 390,000 CONTRACTS LOW SET IN THE YEAR OF 2001 WITH TRADING FOR GOLD AT $260.00. THUS DURING EARLY APRIL WE HAD AN ALL TIME LOW OI IN COMEX (354,531) BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. IN MAY: RECORD LOW OI OF 326,052 WITH A GOLD PRICE OF $4,460 THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE COMEX SHIP, NOBODY WANT TO PLAY IN THIS CROOKED CASINO!! (AND THIS CORRELATES WITH SILVER’S LOW OI OF 103,800 CONTRACTS WITH A MUCH HIGHER SILVER PRICE BASE//$75.00)
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 600 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI (4744 ONTRACTS) . THIS STRONG GAIN IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $15.15 //,THURSDAY///.
LAST 13 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY 2025 THROUGH TO /MAY 2026)
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 4.230 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 104.040 TONNES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING JUNE. GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 2650 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 341,279 SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 326,052 SET JUNE 3 AND RISING FROM OUR PREVIOUS RECORD LOW//MAY 28.2026 WE HAVE THUS RECORD LOW COMEX OI WITH A HIGH PRICE OF GOLD
SILVER ALSO HAS AN ULTRA SMALL SIZED AND EXTREMELY LOW COMEX OI OF 107,210 CONTRACTS// RISING FROM PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS SET DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL AND MAY FIRST.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN COMEX GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1848 CONTRACTS WITH 1238 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 2650 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7394 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A LARGER SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1996 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON LIKE YESTERDAY AND TODAY. THE STRING OF 5 CONSECUTIVE HUGE ISSUANCES OF T.A.S. ENDED THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY.
GOLD PRICE ON THURSDAY FELL BY $15.15
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT (2650 ) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 5344 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES 7394 CONTRACTS!! DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.
WE HAVE 1) NOW REVERTED TO OUR FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE LONG SIDE AND HUGE NUMBERS OF NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE SHORT SIDE BUT OTHER SPECS GOING ALSO TO THE LONG SIDE WILLING TO STAND FOR DELIVERY OF THEIR LONGS.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 4.230 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 104.040 TONNES
3) LITTLE IF ANY T.A.S. LIQUIDATION IN THE COMEX SESSION AND SOME GOVT LIQUIDATION // WITH A STRONG GAIN OF EQUITY SHARES/JUNE11 HAVING 1)A $15.15 COMEX PRICE LOSS AND WE HAD 2) SPEC PILING HUGELY ON THE SHORT SIDE// +3. EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ALSO PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 7994 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND AS WELL A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN JUNE. (104.040 TONNES). //, CENTRAL BANKERS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED THURSDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4)A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) V) STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD(1910) AND 6. A STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (1886) FOR RAID PURPOSES.!!!
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 23,068 CONTRACTS OR 2,306,800 OZ OR 71.751 TONNES IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2306 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN10 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 71.751 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2025, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 71.651 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2023 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2024: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES
2025: AND NOW 2026
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 71.751 TONNES
SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SOIS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE 1,337 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 107,210.
EFP ISSUANCE 610 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 610 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1337 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 610 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF1947 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.12
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 9.735 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $0.12
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JUNE 12 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 44.50 PTS OR 1.12%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 468.81 PTS OR 1.93%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 184.73 PTS OR 2.86%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.99%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7612
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7615 Oil DOWN TO 83.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 86.69 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7612) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7615 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG 4744 CONTRACTS TO 341,279 RISING FROM ITS NEW ALL TIME LOW OF 337,208 OI SET JUNE 3, SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THURSDAY’S TRADING JUNE 11!!. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE SHORT SIDE BUT WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL.
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS MAY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $15.15).
WE THUS HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 7394 CONTRACTS (OR 24.86 TONNES) DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A STRONG CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, EQUATING TO 2650 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. ON FRIDAY, BY FAR WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME BEATING THE PREVIOUS SINGLE HIGHEST ISSUE BY ONE TONNE. THUS MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 106+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO SO FAR
DETAILS ON OUR NEW JUNE COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7394 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE($15.15). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH JUNE/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A STRONG SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1996 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
JUNE: ZERO SO FAR.
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 146+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO. WE WILL KNOW IN JUNE WHETHER THEY COVERED ANY OF THEIR SHORTFALL.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 4.230 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 104.040 TONNES//
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING JUNE,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $15.15)
WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS STILL REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THURSDAY NIGHT//FRIDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $15.15
WE HAD 600 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7394 CONTRACTS OR 739,400 OZ (22.97 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
33,224 notices 3,322,400 oz 103.334 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
0 ENTRIES
adjustments: 1// both customer to dealer:
b) JPMorgan 9,645.000 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI STANDS AT 3776 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 1172 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 196 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED A STRONG 1368 CONTRACTS OR 136,800 OZ. (4,230 TONNES) EXERCISED A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE PHYSICAL GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THIS IS NO DOUBT CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
JULY GAINED 143 CONTRACTS UP TO 3447 CONTRACTS.
AUGUST LOST 947 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 264,296
.
We had 3561 contracts filed for today representing 356,100oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 3561 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 737 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,224) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(3786 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 3561 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,344,900 OZ OR (104.040Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,224) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE( 3786 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 3561 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,344,900 OZ OR (104.040Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in JUNE becomes 104.040 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE 104.040 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.
confirmed volume THURSDAY confirmed 232,714// fair// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,929,596.205 oz 60.01 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,929,596.205 tonnes oz 60.01 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 28,013,782.467oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,422,462.129 tonnes (479.70 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,591,320.338oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,492,866oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
419.68 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
JUNE DELIVERY MONTH
JUNE 12
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
0 entries
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0 entries
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ONE ENTRY
i)Into Delaware 13,926.900 oz oz
total deposit 13,926.90 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
14 CONTRACT(S) (70,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
222 Contract (1.110 MILLIONoz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2181 contracts 10.905 MILLION oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY:1
i)Into Delaware 13,926.900 oz oz
total deposit 13,926.90 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
0 entries
adjustments dealer to customer Delaware’
0 entry
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 85.189 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 319.356 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE /2026 OI: 238 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 10 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 1 NOTICES SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 55,000 OZ WILL STAND AS A QUEUE JUMP AT THE SILVER COMEX.
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 2964 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 50,704 CONTRACTS.
AUGUST SAW A GAIN 0F 32 CONTRACTS UP TO 778…
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 14 or 70,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume THURSDAY; 96,303// strong volume
XXX
AND NOW JUNE. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2181 X5,000 oz = 10.905 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(236) AND the number of notices served upon today (14 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE 2026 contract month: (2181 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE ( 236) minus number of notices served upon today (14)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JUNE..contract month equating to 12.015 MILLION OZ.+
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 85.189 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 139.679/319.356 million: 43.72%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
JUNE 12 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.855 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 10 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $153.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.426 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.495 TONNES
JUNE 9 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.921 TONNES
JUNE 8 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.936 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.921 TONNES
JUNE 5 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $134;85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.857 TONNES
JUNE 4 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $39.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.857 TONNES
JUNE 3 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.856 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.000 TONNES
JUNE 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.712 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.856 TONNES
JUNE 1 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $79.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.568 TONNES
MAY 29 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.568 TONNES
MAY 28 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 27 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 26 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9988 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 22 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
MAY 21 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1013/64 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $3.34: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.769 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.383 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.226 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.152 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.50: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.378 MILLION OZ
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.35: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.407 MILLION OZ INTO INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.287 MILLION OZ
JUNE 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.880 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.86: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.432 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.55: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.855 MILLION OZ
JUNE 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.077 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.02: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.61: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.131 OF 0.315 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.153 MILLION OZ
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.022 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.64: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
Currencies are debased during and after wars, because government spending goes through the roof not just due to defence spending but also because of the economic consequences.
Financial markets, particularly in North America and Europe are ignoring the lessons of history. By their actions participants beleive that it is the marginal cost of holding gold over prospective interest rates which determine the former’s value. The assumption is that inflation is increasingly likely to surprise on the upside as a result of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, removing the hoped-for reduction in interest rates later this year and substituting the likelihood of an increase.
This is thoughtless nonsense which assumes that currency deposits in a bank are the ultimate safety. The delusion is primarily due to accounting investment returns in these currencies, which ignores the factors changing their purchasing power. Last week has been a prime example of this error, as the values of currencies have been driven higher against those of gold and silver.
Trading short-term is particularly hazardous. But there is a major benefit for stackers prepared to benefit from an arbitrage between current investment misconceptions about the role of gold and silver, and the reality which always undermines currency values following war.
In early European trade this morning (Friday) gold was $4225, having rallied from a low of $4029 yesterday morning on news from the White House that a settlement is being agreed with Iran which will lead to Hormuz being opened this weekend or possibly Monday. But it should be noted that Iran said that there’s no agreement and restated its red lines. At $67.30, silver rallied this morning from yesterday’s low of $61.50.
The problem we have in assessing the immediate prospects for gold and silver prices can be summed up in the following bullet points:
· There have been several instances of false optimism emanating from the American side only to be followed by renewed military conflicts. Could it be that this time both sides are serious in their intentions to end the war? If so, a rally in gold and silver could continue on the basis that markets currently associate war with lower precious metal prices.
· Israel has discouraged peace talks by intensifying attacks on Southern Lebanon and Beirut when they have been mooted. At the time of writing, we have yet to see if Israel will again try to disrupt an attempted agreement with Iran.
· If there is cause for optimism it is likely to be a memorandum of understanding, not a peace agreement. That will take time to negotiate, likely to keep Hormuz closed for much longer than beyond Monday as the Americans have stated. It will also need agreement and compliance from the Israelis, which at the moment seems unlikely.
We can only conclude that this sudden settlement announced by President Trump yesterday should be treated with caution and the uncertainties undermining gold and silver are far from removed. Traders face continuing uncertainties in a market driven predominantly by the vested interests of market makers and bullion bank trading desks who are short of gold and silver futures. At the margin, they will push for lower prices.
Gold’s open interest on Comex remains very low:
This indicates that speculative interest diminished as the price rose above $3000 in early-2025. The rise in gold’s paper price has been driven by underlying physical demand from central banks and Asian interests, particularly Chinese and to a lesser extent perhaps Indian. Any liquidation of positions will have been minor, though in May ETF flows turned slightly negative, according to the World Gold Council:
The dips in March and May confirms what the cynics know: investors tend to sell when the price is down and buy when it’s up. Perhaps net ETF liquidation is not over, but we can be sure that in this very oversold market any ETF selling will be easily absorbed.
While investor sentiment in silver is rock-bottom, the story here is potentially explosive. First, we look at Comex’s open interest:
Open interest is lower than in October 2013, and more so than in April 2020 when silver began its current bull market from below $12. This chart alone suggests that silver’s downside is extremely limited. We know that industrial demand outpaces the sum of mine and scrap supply for the seventh year, China turned net importer from significant exporter in 2025 Q1, and investor interest has yet to kick in.
In conclusion, in the very short-term uncertainties over Iran and the way they are read in paper markets seem likely to persist. Investors falsely believe that safety is found in currency deposits. That will pass when it is realised that the consequences of war almost always undermine currency values priced in gold. The potential of a bear squeeze in silver as industrial demand drains paper markets of their physical backing coupled with the return of investor interest has the potential to lead to far higher prices, and rapidly at that.
Out last chart of the dollar priced in gold makes the direction of travel very clear. The fiat dollar is heading toward its end of life:
END
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
5. COMMODITY REPORT//ALUMINIUM/SULFUR
BofA Sees “Runaway Price Risk” In Spot Sulfur As Global Supply Chain Freezes
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 05:45 AM
Sulfur is a critical industrial input produced as a byproduct of oil refining and natural gas processing. With roughly half of the world’s seaborne sulfur trade trapped behind the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, another 15% stuck in Kazakhstan due to export-logistics blockades, and demand destruction still insufficient across global markets, Bank of America analysts warn that spot sulfur prices have further upside potential.
Matthew DeYoe, research analyst at BofA Securities, covering all things ag, materials, and chemicals, wrote in a note, “The market is working through unprecedented supply shortages, and prices are inflecting accordingly. Spot sulfur is now ~$1,200/mt, vs a more normal <$200/mt longer term price.”
“The inflation is destroying demand across some industries, notably phosphates and pulp & paper, but we are not killing demand fast enough, and margins for metals like copper and lithium are strong enough to keep prices bid,” DeYoe noted.
DeYoe said his team spoke earlier this week with Fiona Boyd of Acuity Commodities about global sulfur and sulfuric acid markets, coming away with a clear takeaway: the market is facing an unprecedented supply shock, yet demand destruction has not gone far enough. With supply trapped behind the Hormuz chokepoint, export logistics disrupted in Kazakhstan, and metals producers still able to absorb higher input prices, Boyd warned that spot sulfur prices likely have more upside from here.
Roughly 50% of the world’s seaborn traded sulfur is caught behind the SOH and another 15% is trapped in Kazakhstan given export logistic blockades. In total this represents ~30% of the world’s sulfur capacity, though it is compounded by sulfuric acid export bans from China and a 3-4mn tonne shortfall to annual Russian exports on account of attacks by Ukraine. Inventory liquidation is helping to buffer, notably in China, which is drawing down its stocks, and Canada, which has ample supply. However, the latter is expensive and slow to mobilize, while the former is running out (Boyd expects 2-4 weeks of safety stock left). Because sulfur is largely a processing byproduct, it is price inelastic, so don’t expect more supply because economics are better. Alternatives, such as pyrite, are increasingly sought, but it can’t fill the hole. This all puts upside risk to sulfur price.
The near-term fix for the energy crunch, which extends far beyond sulfur markets, is reopening the Hormuz chokepoint. Yet DeYoe warned that even if Hormuz were reopened soon, it would take months to rebalance the market and repair damaged assets. This suggests prices will remain elevated through the end of the year.
DeYoe highlights that Mosaic is in focus. Sulfuric acid is a key input for phosphate fertilizer production, and Mosaic relies on sulfur from US Gulf Coast refineries. He noted that high sulfur costs could pressure Mosaic’s second-half profits and cash flow, potentially requiring a debt raise. He also added that the odds of US government intervention to restrict sulfur exports to protect domestic DAP fertilizer production could increase.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 44.50 PTS OR 1.12%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 468.81 PTS OR 1.93%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 184.73 PTS OR 2.86%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.99%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7612
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7615 Oil DOWN TO 83.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 86.69 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7612) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7615 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7612
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7615
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 468.81 PTS OR 1.93%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1840.73 PTS OR 2.81%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 83.90
BRENT; 86.69
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.68/// EURO RISES TO 1.1581 UP 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.630 DOWN 5 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 160.07… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.798 DOWN 8 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.7612 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7615
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.9838// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.717// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.411%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.656%
3j Gold at $4223.30 //Silver at: 67.25 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 31/ 100 roubles/72.56
3m oil (WTI) into the 83 dollar handle for WTI and 86 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 160.07 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.630% DOWN 5 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.798 DOWN 8 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7956 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9214
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.443 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.943 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.040 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 46.26 UP 10 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.8160 DOWN 9 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.516 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.4090 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.059 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rally Amid Fresh Iran Peace Hopes, All Eyes On SpaceX
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 08:23 AM
US stock futures and global markets are higher, extending their rally while oil hit the lowest level in months following fresh reports that the US and Iran are nearing a provisional agreement to end their war, even if top leadership has yet to sign off. Meanwhile, all eyes are on SpaceX – the world’s biggest IPO- where shadow markets are pricing a spike of at least 35% for SpaceX on its debut, while online market see odds of a 30% close at roughly breakeven. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% after the benchmark climbed 1.8% in the previous session. Pre-market, all Mag 7 are higher led by GOOGL and META. Treasuries held steady after Thursday’s gain: 10Y yields are at 4.46%. The DXY dollar index fell 21bp to 99.639. Commodities are all lower: WTI fell $3.90 to $83.81 while Brent slid almost 4% to head for its first close below $88 a barrel since the first week of the war. Base/precious metals are unchanged; ags are all lower. Today’s US economic data calendar includes June University of Michigan sentiment at 10am.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Alphabet +1.3%, Meta +1%, Amazon +1%, Nvidia +0.6%, Microsoft +0.6%, Tesla +0.7%, Apple +0.4%)
Rocket, satellite and space-linked companies gain after Elon Musk’s SpaceX raised $75 billion in its initial public offering. Movers include EchoStar +5% and Rocket Lab (RKLB) +4%.
Adobe (ADBE) falls 6% after the company said its chief financial officer, Dan Durn, would depart, leaving the company without a top tier of veteran leadership after Chief Executive Officer Shantanu Narayen announced he would step aside.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gains 2% as Citi upgraded the chipmaker to buy, seeing the company as a key beneficiary of AI.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) slips 1% after appointing Adobe’s Dan Durn as chief financial officer, succeeding Willem Meintjes.
Travelers Cos. (TRV) slips 2% after Barclays cut its the recommendation on the property and casualty insurance company to underweight, saying that profit upside in the sector is getting more difficult to find.
In other corporate news, Adobe said its CFO would depart, leaving the company without a top tier of veteran leadership after the CEO announced in March that he would step aside. Flutter Entertainment, the owner of FanDuel, the largest player in US sports betting, plans to delist from trading in London
Sentiment was lifted overnight amid fresh expectations that the conflict with Iran is drawing to a close. In the latest developments on a draft deal, a Group of Seven official said an agreement could be signed as soon as Sunday. Iran’s foreign ministry told state-run media that a framework text was nearly finalized (full details here). The semi-official Mehr agency reported that the draft contained 14 provisions, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and 60 days of negotiations on nuclear issues. Some have panned the MOU as one which concedes to Iran, giving the country monetary benefits upfront, while leaving the key negotiations for the back-end.
That said, traders are keen for an end to the more than 100-day war that has roiled global markets and caused the biggest oil-supply shock in history. While President Donald Trump signaled Thursday that a deal should get done shortly, traders have remained wary as previous bursts of optimism have ended in disappointment.
“Markets would believe the deal is reached when we have the actual agreement signed and the Strait of Hormuz can be opened,” said Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “For now, markets are in relief mode that further escalation can be avoided.”
As for SpaceX, differences of opinion on the $75 billion IPO – the world’s biggest – are easy to find on vision, valuation, opportunity and risks, but perhaps the most encouraging sign for traders may be the ability for the market to absorb record equity issuance. There’s been a record flood of equity issuance over the past two weeks, between SpaceX’s debut and Alphabet’s deal, with EPFR analysts saying it leaves “shrinking aggregate cash available to support broader equity valuations.” Meanwhile US equity funds had an 11th week of inflows, the longest streak since Dec., as tech funds had their biggest inflow ever, according to Bank of America.
On SpaceX valuation, “expensive” has never been a catalyst with Elon Musk, notes Amanda Lyons at Energy Group Capital, and “betting against his premium has been a losing trade for a decade.” Trading in the stock is likely to be a read for risk appetite while “the danger is that a genuine business and a quasi-religious premium are being sold in the same ticker, and most buyers aren’t separating the two,” Lyons adds.
“There appears to be continued investor appetite for technology-related growth stories, particularly those with exposure to AI,” said Tomás García-Purriños at Santander Asset Management. “The pipeline of expected IPOs in 2026 suggests that investor interest in technology, digital infrastructure and AI-related themes remains healthy, extending well beyond a handful of high-profile names.”
Bloomberg-compiled data covering 66 of the biggest US tech IPOs and direct listings since 2012 shows that an initial pop is near-universal. Among the pure IPOs, 86% closed above their offer price on day one, with a median 36% gain. After that, dispersion kicks in.
Elsewhere, overnight Bloomberg reported that global banks including Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman are said to be curbing hedge funds’ leveraged bets on Asia’s top chipmakers including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics after a blistering rally this year raised concerns of a potential pullback.
Also overnight, Goldman Sachs cut its forecasts for crude oil prices next year by $5 a barrel on higher supply and lower demand. The US declared a power emergency in the southeastern US as forecasters warned of dangerous heat that’s likely to stress power grids along the country’s east coast.
Traders in Europe and Asia raced to catch up with Wall Street’s chipmaker-led gains from Thursday. The Stoxx 600 rose 1.5% on optimism about a deal between the US and Iran builds, prompted by President Trump scrapping strikes and extended by a report that a draft deal is under discussion, though one that still needs approval from authorities. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
Shares in European energy and fossil-fuel firms fall while airlines gain after President Donald Trump said a peace deal with Iran could be signed as soon as the weekend, comments that pushed down oil prices
Homebuilders are among the best-performing stocks in the UK on Friday as money markets pare bets on BOE rate hikes and swap rates used to price mortgages decline. The move is driven by sliding oil prices on Middle East optimism
FlatexDEGIRO shares jump as much as 7.5% after the online brokerage was awarded a new overweight rating at Barclays following the stock’s de-rating this year, while Avanza rises as much as 5.3% after being upgraded
Getinge gains as much as 4.9%, the most since Oct. 21, after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to buy from hold, citing an improving outlook for the Swedish health-care equipment firm
Halma shares rise as much as 4.3%, rebounding from a two-month low following the record 15% drop in the share price on Thursday after the UK industrial group’s guidance for its Photonics business fell short of expectations
Nokia gains as much as 6.7% after JPMorgan raised its PT on the company, saying its operating profit in 2028 can beat the company’s own guidance — issued during the capital markets day in November — by more than 50%
Colruyt shares rise as much as 8.6% as Oddo BHF analyst Robert Jan Vos upgrades the retailer to outperform from neutral and lifts his price target ahead of full-year results on June 16 in anticipation of continued margin revival
Exail shares fall as much as 21% as the company disagrees with financial partner ICG over the size of a payment for bonds and preferred shares as ICG exits its investment in the French defense firm
Acciona Energía shares are 9.7% higher Friday in Madrid trading following a Cinco Días report that Brookfield, KKR are among investors that Acciona has reached out to gauge interest on its renewables unit
Glanbia drops as much as 4.3% to €21.62 after biggest shareholder Tirlán Co-Operative Society sold down its stake in the Irish manufacturer of workout supplements and energy bars
LPP slumps as much as 7.8%, the most in a month, after the Polish fashion retailer slowed its expansion in response to rising cannibalization risk within its key Sinsay brand
Asian stocks rallied as technology shares rebounded, helped by President Donald Trump’s claim that a deal with Iran was close. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 3.5%, the most in more than two months, before paring some gains. Chipmakers Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC were among the biggest contributors. South Korea’s Kospi led gains among regional benchmarks, closing 4.6% higher after gaining as much as 8.6% earlier. Most other markets were also in the green. Here Are the Most Notable Movers
Chow Tai Fook’s shares surge as much as 13%, the most since June 2019, after its full-year earnings and FY27 guidance both beat estimates. The gold retailer saw stronger growth in April–May, driven by a recovery in demand for weight-based gold jewelry amid a retreat in gold prices, according to analysts.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index only seeing modest moves after a four-day run of losses and now little changed, having wiped out its gains on the Iran headlines.
In rates, treasuries are marginally richer across the curve, broadly holding late gains seen on Thursday, following latest developments on a draft US-Iran peace deal which includes a G7 official saying an agreement could be signed as soon as Sunday. US yields richer by around 1bp across belly of the curve with 10-year trading at 4.455%, close to Thursday’s closing levels, as oil extended declines, continuing to underpin Treasuries and support stocks. Bunds and gilts outperform, catching up with Thursday’s late Treasuries gains after the European close. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. Citibank’s $6.25b transaction led a three-deal $10.25b slate on Thursday. Issuers paid less than 1bp on deals that were 4.8 times covered. Weekly volume at $27b is just shy of the $30b dealers’ projections
In commodities, WTI futures lower by 3.4% on the day while Brent heads for its first close below $88 a barrel since the first week of the war. Gold was little changed and Bitcoin posted small gains.
Today’s US economic data calendar includes June University of Michigan sentiment at 10am.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
The US and Iran moved closer to an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially around next week’s G-7 meeting, according to senior officials. The US is to withdraw forces from the area surrounding Iran under a potential deal, Iran’s semi-official news agency Mehr reported. BBG
The United States plans to significantly reduce the aircraft and warships that it makes available for NATO operations in Europe, according to two senior European officials, accelerating America’s effort to scale down the protection it has offered to European allies for eight decades. NYT
Global banks are curbing hedge funds’ leveraged bets on Asia’s top chipmakers including SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. after a blistering rally this year raised concerns of a potential pullback. BBG
Nvidia has told Chinese clients that its new “Vera” central processors for AI data centers could be available as soon as August and that they can begin placing orders, three sources familiar with the matter said. BBG
China told big state-owned banks to reduce their lending in the interbank market, according to people familiar with the matter, in an effort to prevent borrowing costs from drifting too far below the policy interest rate. BBG
Chinese investors are rushing to Hong Kong to open bank accounts and buy investment products, as Beijing cracks down on cross-border capital flows in a shift that shareholders fear may dent returns. FT
The ECB is prepared to raise rates again next month if the shock from the war requires it, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said. BBG
The US insurance industry’s standard setter has begun to examine credit risks linked to data center projects, which are increasingly showing up in insurers’ investment portfolios. FT
Big companies and startups, chafing at rapidly escalating artificial intelligence costs, are increasingly turning to tools that tap in to cheaper AI models, including some from China. That’s raising pressure on industry leaders OpenAI and Anthropic to lower their prices, a prospect that could hurt their ability to grow into profitable enterprises. WSJ
US Senate Banking Committee is weighing a markup of export control legislation. It could tee up the bills for inclusion in the next annual defense policy package, no final decision has been made yet: Punchbowl
US President Trump said regarding fertilizer prices, that they might look into federal aid, and are looking at doing some form of help.
BofA weekly flow data shows USD 20.8bln into bonds (59th straight week of inflows), USD 2.5bln out of cash, USD 31.5bln into stocks, USD 0.7bln out of crypto (record inflows over 5 weeks), USD 2.3bln out of gold (4th straight week of outflows).
Iran News
Iranian media Mehr News reported that the US-Iran 14-point MoU includes a US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions, and release frozen Iranian funds; nuclear issue pushed back by 60 days for final agreement. Additionally, the US is required to present a plan to rebuild Iran’s economy, while the final negotiations between the two countries should focus on nuclear and economic issues, without discussing Iran’s missile program. This text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran.
The US-Iran MoU is likely to be signed next week, according to CBS citing sources, with Bloomberg later reporting that it could happen at the G7 meeting in Geneva next week. First steps include ensuring “freedom of trade” by demining and opening the Strait of Hormuz. The signing would kick off 60 days of talks to negotiate details. In principle, Iran would commit to a lockout of 15-20 years during which it would not enrich uranium and would dismantle its nuclear sites. In exchange for taking these steps, Iran would receive financial relief staggered over time and sequenced to correspond with compliance.
US President Trump said he understands that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal and that lifting the blockade is part of the Iran deal, while he added that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and that they want to make a deal a lot more than he does. Trump added it’s a very strong MOU, they found Iran to be rational, and they will make a deal. Furthermore, he said the Strait will open immediately upon MOU signing, maybe Saturday or Monday, but doesn’t want to set a deadline for the deal, and stated a Kharg Island deal would be off the table now.
US President Trump said at a virtual campaign rally that they settled up with Iran and it is pretty much completed, while they got everything they wanted and claimed they ended the war with Iran.
Israeli PM Netanyahu held a call with US President Trump on Thursday night regarding the possibility of a pending peace deal between the US and Iran, according to CBS News.
Airplanes associated with US VP Vance’s advance team are moving ahead of potential Iran MoU signing, according to New York Post reporter.
Iran state media said Tehran would not cede control of Hormuz under draft US deal, AFP reported.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and the issue has not been finalised, while it added that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is less secure due to US actions and that what is being said about the time and place of signing the agreement is media speculation. Furthermore, the spokesperson said that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but stated that the text of the agreement is almost ready.
Sources cited by Al Hadath said Iran has given final approval, which Qatar conveyed to the US.
Iranian state media reported that explosions heard in Sirik was related to a confrontation with a vessel that violated regulations whilst attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli airstrike reported in Jebchit, southern Lebanon, according to Al Araby.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks rallied following on from the gains on Wall St, after President Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and touted a US-Iran deal, which could be signed as soon as the weekend and would open the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump claimed the US ended the war with Iran and he understood that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal. However, Iran pushed back on this as a Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but acknowledged that the text of the deal was almost ready.
ASX 200 climbed higher as outperformance in mining, materials and resources led the advances, while energy was pressured due to the drop in oil prices, and defensives also lagged amid the risk-on environment.
Nikkei 225 surged at the open and briefly tested the 67,000 level, with the index helped by lower oil prices and with tech and mining stocks sitting comfortably among the list of biggest gainers.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the euphoria with mining stocks among the notable gainers, while Chow Tai Fook was front-running the advances after it reported record full-year profit.
Top Asian News
China tells big banks to curb interbank loans to ease cash glut.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are aiming to broaden retail JGB offerings and that retail Japanese government bonds remain unappreciated by households, while she stated that no impact is expected on the central bank policy meeting after BoJ Governor Ueda was hospitalised.
India is willing to let fiscal gap widen to as much as 4.8% of GDP from a previous 4.3%, according to Bloomberg
European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.8%) start the last trading day of the week on a firmer footing and have completely reversed the losses seen at the start of the week. This comes on hopes of a US-Iran deal, with US President Trump stating that it could be signed as early as this weekend in Europe. Further upside was spurred after Mehr News reported that the MoU with the US includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian funds. European sectors are entirely in the green bar Energy (-3.1%). Travel & Leisure (+5.2%) is the clear outperformer, followed by Banks (+4.2%) and Consumer Products & Services (+3.7%). Cyclicals have been affected the most since the start of the Iran war, so hopes of an end would benefit these sectors the most.
Top European News
Bundesbank sees German GDP growth at 0.5% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027; German inflation seen at 2.9% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027.
FX
Snapshot: DXY is incrementally firmer, whilst G10s mixed vs the USD this morning. The tentative action comes after US President Trump claimed that he had a deal with Iran, and that the signing of the MoU would probably happen in Europe. However, the Iranians pushed back on this claim. This morning, a Mehr report revealing the details of the 14-point plan garnered some attention, which helped boost global sentiment – though action was fairly muted in the FX space.
DXY is slightly firmer today despite significantly lower oil prices after a number of geopolitical updates in the last 24 hours. (See commodities for more details). In recent trade, USD was hit as details of the 14-point US-Iran MoU accelerated the risk-on bias. On this reporting, DXY moved towards Thursday’s lows of 99.58, currently 99.72 at the time of writing. Focus for the remainder of the day shifts to the UoM Sentiment survey, but market participants will likely be more attentive of the geopolitical environment and potentially some early positioning heading into a weekend which could see a deal between US-Iran be signed.
EUR and GBP trade has chopped on either side of the unchanged mark this morning. The single currency has had a number of ECB speak to contend with, but by in-large has been largely in-fitting with President Lagarde’s comments on Thursday. A notable Bloomberg sources piece suggested that some policymakers could see a hike as soon as July. Elsewhere, the GBP had a weak growth report to digest – overall it does little to shift the mood heading into the next week’s meeting, but will exacerbate the growth woes had the Bank.
NOK is the worst G10 performer on account of lower oil prices as participants assess implications for Terms of Trade and the Norges Bank. Popular carry trade NOK/SEK has seen downside in excess of a percent today due to the above. NOK/SEK slipped below par, to mark a session low of 0.9882.
Central Banks
ECB’s Nagel said all policy options remain on the table for July while adding that the ECB is prepared to respond if required.
ECB’s Makhlouf said we need to get ahead of inflation and are seeing more broad-based inflation impact. It would be a mistake for us to do nothing.
ECB’s Kocher said the war’s impact on price trends are increasingly clear and he does not expect inflation to match 2022 or 2023 levels. Will act decisively to ensure 2% mid-term target.
ECB’s Dolenc said the rate hike is just enough for now to follow the baseline, and they had a robust set of data to make a decision. Dolenc also stated that it is pretty obvious inflation will be higher and growth lower, while services inflation is stubborn and hard to fight.
Fixed Income
Global fixed benchmarks are entirely in the green and currently hold towards highs. Strength, which has been facilitated by lower energy prices after US President Trump claimed that he had a deal with Iran, and that the signing of the MoU would probably happen in Europe. However, the Iranians pushed back on this claim. The bullish bias then extended after Iran-affiliated, Mehr News, reported the details of the US-Iran 14-point MoU. This spurred another bout of pressure in the energy complex, which in-turn weighed on global yields.
USTs (+4+ ticks) gain, and hold at the upper end of a 109-19 to 109-29 range. Action which has been facilitated by the positive geopolitical mood music, but still remains the underperformer vs peers. That can potentially be explained by the ongoing hawkish repricing at the Fed, heading to the Bank’s policy announcement next week. Elsewhere, yields are lower across the curve with underperformance in the short-end/belly; the 10yr currently holds at 4.43%, marking the WTD low. Should the geopolitical environment materially improve in the coming days, and the Strait entirely opens up, the 10yr could dip its head back towards support levels at 4.33% and then 4.25%. Do note that the 10yr resided below the 4.00% mark before the Iran conflict started.
Bunds (+43 ticks) and Gilts (+87 ticks) both follow the bullish bias, with the latter outperforming given its relatively high dependence on external energy and poor domestic growth data. For EGBs, there have been a number of ECB speakers this morning following the Bank’s decision to hike rates on Thursday. Most have echoed the comments made by President Lagarde at her presser; focus has been on a Bloomberg report, which suggested that some ECB members see another hike as soon as July.
For UK paper, the GDP release this morning indicated that the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April, amidst the Iranian war. This will only exacerbate growth woes for some policymakers at the BoE, where policymakers are set to meet next week, expected to keep rates on hold.
Commodities
On Thursday, US President Trump said a deal could be signed with Iran as soon as this weekend in Europe, following an earlier post on Truth Social that the US was going to strike Iran hard for the third straight day and then later pulling back the threat. Trump said VP Vance would attend if the deal materialises and added that the Iranian Supreme Leader had agreed to a deal. The deal was described as a very strong MoU which would restart shipping in the Strait and include commitments from Tehran to not pursue a nuclear weapon.
Markets were awaiting any kind of confirmation from Iranian media that the MoU has been received. Mehr News reported the 14-point MoU includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian funds. (Full 14 points on the headline feed) Awaiting official commentary from the Iranian government on the MoU.
Crude futures were already on the softer side before the Mehr news report, but it has given an additional catalyst for further downside. WTI Jul’26 slides below a key support range of USD 84.46-85.95/bbl, currently trading at the bottom of USD 83.20-86.98/bbl range. For Brent Aug’26, the benchmark trades slips below the USD 86/bbl handle (USD 85.80-89.72/bbl).
Precious metals trade in narrow ranges after rebounding in excess of 3% in Thursday’s session. Spot gold oscillates in a USD 4170-4247/oz range. Given the positive news of a potential US-Iran deal, worries of higher inflation/rates due to energy prices may temper and result in some unwinding of the hawkish rate bets by the Fed.
3M LME Copper bids higher, currently trading in a USD 13.6k-13.72k/t range, amid the positive tone. The red metal gapped higher alongside gains in Asia-Pac equities and held amid constructive reporting.
Venezuela has signed five agreements with Shell (SHEL LN) to advance oil and gas projects, which includes the Co.’s participation in the 5tln cubic-feet Loran offshore gas field.
JPMorgan still expects aluminium to reach USD 4k/t, now forecasting an average price of USD 3750/t in H2’26.
US Event calendar
10:00 am: Jun P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 46, prior 44.8
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Happy birthday to me. I’m taking most of today off to catch up with an old close friend I now see far less than I should, largely due to work commitments and my ongoing role as an on-demand Uber driver for my children. The plan involves a long local hike and a long non boozy lunch. Yes, my wife and I are actually going to spend some time together. Hopefully we won’t run out of things to talk about within the first few hundred yards.
There’s no shortage of topics to discuss in the financial world right now, as sentiment and newsflow around tech and the Iran war continue to swing 180 degrees at short notice. Indeed, the past 24 hours has seen a sharp reversal in the trajectory of the US–Iran conflict, as mounting hopes of a deal have seen Brent crude fall -1.62% overnight, leaving it on track for a 3-month low of $88.80/bbl. So that’s led to a huge rally across bonds and equities, as lower oil prices have eased fears about a prolonged stagflationary shock.
The picture had looked very different this time yesterday, as we woke up to a second day of US strikes on Iran. Moreover, Trump went onto say that that the US would continue to hit Iran for a third day, and take control of Kharg island and other oil infrastructure. But a few hours later, after European markets had closed, that was suddenly reversed. In a post Trump said that discussions with Iran “have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved”, and that he was cancelling “the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. The post also said that “final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved”, and that a time and place for the signing would be “announced shortly”. Later on, Trump followed this up, saying the US had “made a great settlement of the war with Iran”, and that the deal could be signed over the weekend in Europe, and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to shipping once an agreement is signed.
The market reaction to the news was swift, with Brent crude down -2.92% yesterday to $90.38/bbl, and that’s been followed up by an overnight decline of -1.75% to $88.80/bbl. Moreover, the entire oil futures curve moved lower, with the 6-month Brent future down to $83.28/bbl this morning, which would be its lowest closing level since April. And in turn, we’ve seen a huge wave of optimism in Asian equities this morning, with strong gains for the Nikkei (+3.37%), the KOSPI (+8.32%), the Hang Seng (+2.02%), the CSI 300 (+1.53%) and the Shanghai Comp (+1.56%).
With oil prices coming down sharply, alongside hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, that’s seen investors price out the chance of rapid rate hikes this year. Indeed, as we go to press, markets are now pricing in just a 77% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, having been fully priced in earlier this week. In fact, it’s not until the March 2027 meeting that a hike is fully priced in. So that dovish repricing helped US Treasuries to surge, with the 2yr yield (-8.1bps) down to 4.06% by the close, whilst the 10yr yield (-9.1bps) fell to 4.46%.
For equities there was also a huge surge, as the prospect of lower inflation and fewer rate hikes led to growing optimism on the near-term outlook. So the S&P 500 (+1.75%) posted its biggest jump in the last two months, whilst futures (+0.10%) are pointing to further gains today. And there was a huge surge for some of the recent laggards, with the Philly semiconductor index up +7.91%, the NASDAQ up +2.54%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 up +3.02%. Metals also rallied, with copper up +2.08%, gold up +3.48%, whilst silver (+6.23%) once again traded with a higher beta.
Aside from the Middle East news, the big story yesterday was the first ECB rate hike since 2023, with a 25bp move that lifted their deposit rate to 2.25%. They became the biggest central bank yet to hike after the Middle East energy shock, joining others like Australia and Norway who’d already hiked. Moreover, there were some hawkish undertones, as Lagarde described the hike as “completely warranted and justified”, even in the ECB’s milder scenario, and noted how the inflation shock was becoming broader in nature. Indeed, the ECB lifted their inflation projections, and now expect headline inflation to average 3.0% in 2026 (prev. +2.6%) with core inflation projected to stay above 2% all the way to 2028 (+2.2%).
Interestingly, we had a little conflict in the usual sources stories that came out after, although that seemed to be more in the headline framing than the details. So Bloomberg’s headline suggested that ECB officials weren’t ruling out another hike as soon as the next meeting in July, but a Reuters story said that the ECB felt a material surge in oil prices was necessary to justify a July hike. Nevertheless, both suggested that both a hold and a hike were possible, and unsurprisingly, Lagarde avoided being drawn on the timing of further hikes. Our own European economists are sticking to their view of one more rate hike to 2.50% in September (see their reaction note here Focus Europe: ECB Reaction: A robust hike) with their economic forecasts being softer than the ECB’s. Interestingly they say that another hike to 2.75% is more likely than stopping here at 2.25%.
Given that the hike was fully priced in already, European bonds still put in a decent performance with yields on 10yr bunds (-4.4bps), OATs (-4.8bps) and BTPs (-5.3bps) all retracing the previous day’s losses. Moreover, investors also priced in a more dovish path for the ECB over the months ahead. Equities put in a strong performance too, even before the news of a potential US-Iran deal, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.54%) ending a run of 4 consecutive declines, alongside gains for the FTSE 100 (+0.48%), CAC 40 (+0.48%) and the DAX (+0.06%).
Another big story, prior to the Iran news, was Oracle earnings. That was out after Wednesday’s close, but yesterday their share price fell -8.53% in response, as their quarterly capex spend was much higher than forecast. So that renewed investor concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending. For reference, Oracle has become the largest non-bank issuer in the Bloomberg USD Investment Grade index over the last year, and has now signaled another $20bn of debt issuance over the next 4 quarters. Meanwhile, Oracle is now down -26.4% since its intra-day peak on June 1st, after being up +31.0% in the 3 business days before it.
Otherwise, the main US story was that PPI inflation ran hotter than expected in May, with headline PPI up +1.1% on the month (vs. +0.7% expected). However, there was a downward revision of three-tenths to the April number, and the PPI measure excluding food and energy was only at +0.4% (vs. +0.5% expected). Taken together, this week’s CPI and PPI have led our US economists to increase their May core PCE forecast to 0.37%, a few basis points higher than before the two releases due to the subcomponent breakdowns. But even though inflation was running hot, the labour market data actually came in on the weaker side, with the weekly initial jobless claims up to 229k in the week ending June 6 (vs. 220k expected), which is their highest in 4 months.
Finally, one interesting story bubbling under the surface is the fear of one of the strongest El Niño’s on record emerging around the Pacific equator. That’s where unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific cause the Pacific jet stream to move south, which creates changes in weather patterns and ecosystems. But unfortunately, El Niño events are also correlated with a higher frequency of natural disasters, such as flooding, so usually lead to concern about things like food harvests and higher prices. Those concerns continued yesterday, as the US Climate Prediction Center published a report, saying that the probability of a strong El Niño is over 65% for the end of this year and a very strong one at nearly 40%.
Looking at the day ahead now, the main data releases will be the US University of Michigan survey for June, the UK’s monthly GDP for April, and Canada’s Q1 capacity utilisation rate. We’ll also hear the ECB’s Kocher and Nagel speak.
1b European opening report
Crude benchmarks hit on MEHR MoU reporting, equities bid into SPCX debut – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 06:39 AM
Iran’s Mehr News reports that the US-Iran MoU includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian funds. The draft is still being reviewed. Brent -4.1%.
The US and Iran deal signing could occur around the June G7 meeting in Geneva (June 15th – 17th).
Global equities gain on the constructive risk tone, SPCX set to debut today.
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IRAN CONFLICT
Iranian media Mehr News reported that the US-Iran 14-point MoU includes a US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions, and release frozen Iranian funds; nuclear issue pushed back by 60 days for final agreement. Additionally, the US is required to present a plan to rebuild Iran’s economy, while the final negotiations between the two countries should focus on nuclear and economic issues, without discussing Iran’s missile program. This text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran. [Click here for the full 14-point MoU]
The US-Iran MoU is likely to be signed next week, according to CBS citing sources, with Bloomberg later reporting that it could happen at the G7 meeting in Geneva next week. First steps include ensuring “freedom of trade” by demining and opening the Strait of Hormuz. The signing would kick off 60 days of talks to negotiate details. In principle, Iran would commit to a lockout of 15-20 years during which it would not enrich uranium and would dismantle its nuclear sites. In exchange for taking these steps, Iran would receive financial relief staggered over time and sequenced to correspond with compliance.
US President Trump said he understands that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal and that lifting the blockade is part of the Iran deal, while he added that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and that they want to make a deal a lot more than he does. Trump added it’s a very strong MOU, they found Iran to be rational, and they will make a deal. Furthermore, he said the Strait will open immediately upon MOU signing, maybe Saturday or Monday, but doesn’t want to set a deadline for the deal, and stated a Kharg Island deal would be off the table now.
US President Trump said at a virtual campaign rally that they settled up with Iran and it is pretty much completed, while they got everything they wanted and claimed they ended the war with Iran.
Israeli PM Netanyahu held a call with US President Trump on Thursday night regarding the possibility of a pending peace deal between the US and Iran, according to CBS News.
Airplanes associated with US VP Vance’s advance team are moving ahead of potential Iran MoU signing, according to New York Post reporter.
Iran state media said Tehran would not cede control of Hormuz under draft US deal, AFP reported.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and the issue has not been finalised, while it added that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is less secure due to US actions and that what is being said about the time and place of signing the agreement is media speculation. Furthermore, the spokesperson said that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but stated that the text of the agreement is almost ready.
Sources cited by Al Hadath said Iran has given final approval, which Qatar conveyed to the US.
Iranian state media reported that explosions heard in Sirik was related to a confrontation with a vessel that violated regulations whilst attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli airstrike reported in Jebchit, southern Lebanon, according to Al Araby.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.8%) start the last trading day of the week on a firmer footing and have completely reversed the losses seen at the start of the week. This comes on hopes of a US-Iran deal, with US President Trump stating that it could be signed as early as this weekend in Europe. Further upside was spurred after Mehr News reported that the MoU with the US includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian funds.
European sectors are entirely in the green bar Energy (-3.1%). Travel & Leisure (+5.2%) is the clear outperformer, followed by Banks (+4.2%) and Consumer Products & Services (+3.7%). Cyclicals have been affected the most since the start of the Iran war, so hopes of an end would benefit these sectors the most.
US equity futures hold onto Thursday’s gains; NQ +0.5%. SpaceX is to begin trading today on the Nasdaq, after raising USD 75bln in the biggest IPO, passing Saudi Aramco’s USD 25.6bln IPO back in 2019.
Snapshot: DXY is incrementally firmer, whilst G10s mixed vs the USD this morning. The tentative action comes after US President Trump claimed that he had a deal with Iran, and that the signing of the MoU would probably happen in Europe. However, the Iranians pushed back on this claim. This morning, a Mehr report revealing the details of the 14-point plan garnered some attention, which helped boost global sentiment – though action was fairly muted in the FX space.
DXY is slightly firmer today despite significantly lower oil prices after a number of geopolitical updates in the last 24 hours. (See commodities for more details). In recent trade, USD was hit as details of the 14-point US-Iran MoU accelerated the risk-on bias. On this reporting, DXY moved towards Thursday’s lows of 99.58, currently 99.72 at the time of writing. Focus for the remainder of the day shifts to the UoM Sentiment survey, but market participants will likely be more attentive of the geopolitical environment and potentially some early positioning heading into a weekend which could see a deal between US-Iran be signed.
EUR and GBP trade has chopped on either side of the unchanged mark this morning. The single currency has had a number of ECB speak to contend with, but by in-large has been largely in-fitting with President Lagarde’s comments on Thursday. A notable Bloomberg sources piece suggested that some policymakers could see a hike as soon as July. Elsewhere, the GBP had a weak growth report to digest – overall it does little to shift the mood heading into the next week’s meeting, but will exacerbate the growth woes had the Bank.
NOK is the worst G10 performer on account of lower oil prices as participants assess implications for Terms of Trade and the Norges Bank. Popular carry trade NOK/SEK has seen downside in excess of a percent today due to the above. NOK/SEK slipped below par, to mark a session low of 0.9882.
FIXED INCOME
Global fixed benchmarks are entirely in the green and currently hold towards highs. Strength, which has been facilitated by lower energy prices after US President Trump claimed that he had a deal with Iran, and that the signing of the MoU would probably happen in Europe. However, the Iranians pushed back on this claim. The bullish bias then extended after Iran-affiliated, Mehr News, reported the details of the US-Iran 14-point MoU. This spurred another bout of pressure in the energy complex, which in-turn weighed on global yields.
USTs (+4+ ticks) gain, and hold at the upper end of a 109-19 to 109-29 range. Action which has been facilitated by the positive geopolitical mood music, but still remains the underperformer vs peers. That can potentially be explained by the ongoing hawkish repricing at the Fed, heading to the Bank’s policy announcement next week. Elsewhere, yields are lower across the curve with underperformance in the short-end/belly; the 10yr currently holds at 4.43%, marking the WTD low. Should the geopolitical environment materially improve in the coming days, and the Strait entirely opens up, the 10yr could dip its head back towards support levels at 4.33% and then 4.25%. Do note that the 10yr resided below the 4.00% mark before the Iran conflict started.
Bunds (+43 ticks) and Gilts (+87 ticks) both follow the bullish bias, with the latter outperforming given its relatively high dependence on external energy and poor domestic growth data. For EGBs, there have been a number of ECB speakers this morning following the Bank’s decision to hike rates on Thursday. Most have echoed the comments made by President Lagarde at her presser; focus has been on a Bloomberg report, which suggested that some ECB members see another hike as soon as July.
For UK paper, the GDP release this morning indicated that the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April, amidst the Iranian war. This will only exacerbate growth woes for some policymakers at the BoE, where policymakers are set to meet next week, expected to keep rates on hold.
COMMODITIES
On Thursday, US President Trump said a deal could be signed with Iran as soon as this weekend in Europe, following an earlier post on Truth Social that the US was going to strike Iran hard for the third straight day and then later pulling back the threat. Trump said VP Vance would attend if the deal materialises and added that the Iranian Supreme Leader had agreed to a deal. The deal was described as a very strong MoU which would restart shipping in the Strait and include commitments from Tehran to not pursue a nuclear weapon.
Markets were awaiting any kind of confirmation from Iranian media that the MoU has been received. Mehr News reported the 14-point MoU includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian funds. (Full 14 points on the headline feed) Awaiting official commentary from the Iranian government on the MoU.
Crude futures were already on the softer side before the Mehr news report, but it has given an additional catalyst for further downside. WTI Jul’26 slides below a key support range of USD 84.46-85.95/bbl, currently trading at the bottom of USD 83.20-86.98/bbl range. For Brent Aug’26, the benchmark trades slips below the USD 86/bbl handle (USD 85.80-89.72/bbl).
Precious metals trade in narrow ranges after rebounding in excess of 3% in Thursday’s session. Spot gold oscillates in a USD 4170-4247/oz range. Given the positive news of a potential US-Iran deal, worries of higher inflation/rates due to energy prices may temper and result in some unwinding of the hawkish rate bets by the Fed.
3M LME Copper bids higher, currently trading in a USD 13.6k-13.72k/t range, amid the positive tone. The red metal gapped higher alongside gains in Asia-Pac equities and held amid constructive reporting.
Venezuela has signed five agreements with Shell (SHEL LN) to advance oil and gas projects, which includes the Co.’s participation in the 5tln cubic-feet Loran offshore gas field.
JPMorgan still expects aluminium to reach USD 4k/t, now forecasting an average price of USD 3750/t in H2’26.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
Bundesbank sees German GDP growth at 0.5% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027; German inflation seen at 2.9% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
UK GDP MoM (Apr) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%, Low. -0.3%, High. 0.3%).
UK GDP YoY (Apr) Y/Y 1.2% (Prev. 1.2%).
UK Goods Trade Balance (Apr) -26.05B vs. Exp. -22.85B (Prev. -27.22B, Low. -26.8B, High. -21.3B).
UK Industrial Production MoM (Apr) M/M 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.2%, Low. -0.2%, High. 0.5%).
German HICP Final Y/Y 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.70% (Prev. 2.90%).
German HICP Final M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.10% (Prev. 0.50%).
French HICP Final Y/Y 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.80% (Prev. 2.50%).
French HICP Final M/M 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.10% (Prev. 1.20%).
Spanish HICP Final Y/Y 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.60% (Prev. 3.50%).
Spanish HICP Final M/M 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.10% (Prev. 0.70%).
CENTRAL BANKS
ECB’s Nagel said all policy options remain on the table for July while adding that the ECB is prepared to respond if required.
ECB’s Makhlouf said we need to get ahead of inflation and are seeing more broad-based inflation impact. It would be a mistake for us to do nothing.
ECB’s Kocher said the war’s impact on price trends are increasingly clear and he does not expect inflation to match 2022 or 2023 levels. Will act decisively to ensure 2% mid-term target.
ECB’s Dolenc said the rate hike is just enough for now to follow the baseline, and they had a robust set of data to make a decision. Dolenc also stated that it is pretty obvious inflation will be higher and growth lower, while services inflation is stubborn and hard to fight.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US Senate Banking Committee is weighing a markup of export control legislation, Punchbowl reported citing sources. It could tee up the bills for inclusion in the next annual defense policy package, no final decision has been made yet.
US President Trump said regarding fertiliser prices, that they might look into federal aid, and are looking at doing some form of help.
BofA weekly flow data shows USD 20.8bln into bonds (59th straight week of inflows), USD 2.5bln out of cash, USD 31.5bln into stocks, USD 0.7bln out of crypto (record inflows over 5 weeks), USD 2.3bln out of gold (4th straight week of outflows).
GEOPOLITICS
OTHER
US plans to significantly cut fighter jets and warships for NATO operations in Europe, with the US to pull a third of fighter jets, according to the New York Times.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin holds above USD 63k amid a constructive risk tone across markets.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks rallied following on from the gains on Wall St, after President Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and touted a US-Iran deal, which could be signed as soon as the weekend and would open the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump claimed the US ended the war with Iran and he understood that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal. However, Iran pushed back on this as a Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but acknowledged that the text of the deal was almost ready.
ASX 200 climbed higher as outperformance in mining, materials and resources led the advances, while energy was pressured due to the drop in oil prices, and defensives also lagged amid the risk-on environment.
Nikkei 225 surged at the open and briefly tested the 67,000 level, with the index helped by lower oil prices and with tech and mining stocks sitting comfortably among the list of biggest gainers.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the euphoria with mining stocks among the notable gainers, while Chow Tai Fook was front-running the advances after it reported record full-year profit.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China tells big banks to curb interbank loans to ease cash glut.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are aiming to broaden retail JGB offerings and that retail Japanese government bonds remain unappreciated by households, while she stated that no impact is expected on the central bank policy meeting after BoJ Governor Ueda was hospitalised.
India is willing to let fiscal gap widen to as much as 4.8% of GDP from a previous 4.3%, according to Bloomberg.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
Japanese Industrial Production YoY Final (Apr) Y/Y 2.0% (Prev. 2.4%).
Japanese Industrial Production MoM Final (Apr) M/M 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -0.4%).
1 c) Asian opening report
Europe set for firm open with Brent below $90/bbl, SpaceX ahead – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 02:18 AM
US President Trump said we made a great settlement of war with Iran, signing will probably happen in Europe and soon; Brent -2.0% at USD 88.50/bbl.
Israel is not a party to the MOU, though PM Netanyahu expressed his appreciation to the US’ commitment, CBS reported. Iran is reportedly yet to come to a final conclusion on the deal.
APAC stocks rallied in a continuation of the strength from Wall St. on the settlement report and despite the Israeli & Iran reporting.
European futures point to a firmer open, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%. US futures are also bid, ES & NQ +0.2%, looking to the SPCX IPO.
FX moved to the above, currently features a firmer USD to the detriment of NZD and JPY in particular. Fixed income holds onto gains.
Looking ahead, highlights include German/French/Spanish HICP Final (May), UK GDP (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr), Canadian Wholesale Sales (Apr), US UoM Prelim. (Jun), SpaceX Debut & COO Interview.
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IRAN CONFLICT
US President Trump said we just made a great settlement of war with Iran and that a signing of the Iran deal will probably happen in Europe and soon, while he added that deal documents are in ‘pretty final shape’ and that a deal signing may occur over the weekend. Trump also said the Strait of Hormuz will open as soon as the deal is signed and that he won’t be able to be there for the signing, but VP Vance will be there.
US President Trump said he understands that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal and that lifting the blockade is part of the Iran deal, while he added that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and that they want to make a deal a lot more than he does. Trump added it’s a very strong MOU, they found Iran to be rational, and they will make a deal. Furthermore, he said the Strait will open immediately upon MOU signing, maybe Saturday or Monday, but doesn’t want to set a deadline for the deal, and stated a Kharg Island deal would be off the table now.
US President Trump said at a virtual campaign rally that they settled up with Iran and it is pretty much completed, while they got everything they wanted and claimed they ended the war with Iran.
US President Trump cancelled scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran that were planned for Thursday evening, saying discussions with Iran had been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved. Trump stated that discussions and final points had been approved in both concept and great detail by all parties involved, including the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt and others, while the naval blockade would remain in full force until the transaction is finalised and that the time and place of the signing would be announced shortly.
US President Trump’s post on social media suggesting an imminent agreement with Tehran surprised Israeli PM Netanyahu — who was in the midst of a security discussion about Iran, according to an Israeli source. Israel was not aware of any impending agreement with Iran, the source told CNN, or of any approval to an agreement, appearing to contradict Trump’s claim on Truth Social.
Israeli PM Netanyahu held a call with US President Trump on Thursday night regarding the possibility of a pending peace deal between the US and Iran, according to CBS News.
US President Trump spoke to the Pakistanis, shortly before he called off strikes on Iran on Thursday, who have been mediating with the Iranians, while the Pakistanis told Trump that “we have a deal” with Iran, according to NYT citing a senior admin official.
US-Iran MOU is likely to be signed next week, according to CBS.
An agreement was reached to extend the truce for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Al Arabiya citing sources familiar with details of the US-Iran agreement. Under the agreement, the US will ease sanctions on Iran and lift the embargo, while negotiations on highly enriched uranium will take place within 60 days. Furthermore, it was stated that Iran gave final approval, which Qatar conveyed to the US.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and the issue has not been finalised, while it added that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is less secure due to US actions and that what is being said about the time and place of signing the agreement is media speculation. Furthermore, the spokesperson said that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but stated that the text of the agreement is almost ready.
Iran said “As long as we haven’t announced that there is a memorandum of understanding – there is no agreement”, according to i24 News Amichai Stein. It was also reported that Iran responded “He has already said 38 times that there is an agreement, his words should be treated like his previous lies”, according to Israel Hayom Heb.
Tasnim reported that as long as the issue of possible understandings is not officially announced by Iran, any report by Trump on this matter should be treated as his previous statements were treated. However, Fars News reported “it seems that given that the United States has accepted the text proposed by Iran, the likelihood of this text being approved by the main authorities of the system is high”.
IRGC said Iran stands in a more powerful, prepared and deterrent position than ever before, maintaining complete intelligence dominance over enemy movements and remaining with fingers on the trigger, fully ready to respond to enemy threats and aggression.
Iranian Journalist Ghaderi said, “The point here is that the agreement will only be signed by top Iranian officials if, first, the entire text is accepted and, second, the preconditions, including the definitive transfer of money, are met.”
Hacker group Hanazlah claimed a cyber attack on a California water facility and said it hacked a California water facility in response to the attack on Iranian water infrastructure, while it added that the data breach was a warning to the US, but there was no disruption.
Sources cited by Al Hadath said Iran has given final approval, which Qatar conveyed to the US.
Iranian source told Al-Araby that good progress has been made in the negotiations over the past two days, thanks to Qatari efforts to overcome obstacles.
A delegation from Qatar returned from Tehran to Doha following talks with Iranian officials, conducted in coordination with the US, according to NBC citing sources.
A high-ranking source told Al Arabiya that the Qatari delegation returning from Tehran delivered Iran’s approval of the final draft.
Qatar’s Emir spoke with US President Trump and reviewed the results of the consultations and understandings reached between the US and Iran, which led to progress in the understandings presented within the framework of the negotiation process.
US CENTCOM said the Strait of Hormuz remains open for transit and Iran does not control it, while Iran’s PGSA said the Strait of Hormuz will be closed until further notice.
Explosions were heard near Iran’s Sirik and Bandar Abbas, which were linked to Iranian forces preventing passage violations in the Strait of Hormuz. It was separately reported that US forces shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz after Iran attempted to strike commercial ships in the strait.
Air raid sirens were activated in northern Israel, while the Israeli army said it intercepted a drone launch towards their forces in southern Lebanon.
Israeli troops reportedly entered areas of the Quneitra province in Syria, according to IRNA.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks rallied as risk sentiment improved markedly on Thursday after US President Trump touted a deal with Iran and announced that planned US strikes scheduled for the night had been cancelled. The gains in stocks were led by cyclical and growth-sensitive sectors as investors rotated back into risk assets, with industrial materials and tech outperforming, although Oracle (ORCL) was the tech laggard after recent earnings, whereby its USD 40bln equity sale saw the stock fall over 8%, while energy was the sole sector to finish in the red after the crude complex was the primary casualty of the geopolitical optimism. Markets continue to await official confirmation regarding the reported agreement, with Iranian and Israeli media pushing back on some of the claims. However, Fars reported that any proposed deal is likely to be accepted, helping maintain optimism around a potential de-escalation. Meanwhile, Trump suggested the deal could be signed this weekend in Europe.
SPX +1.75% at 7,394, NDX +3.29% at 29,446, DJI +1.86% at 50,854, RUT +3.02% at 2,921.
Canadian PM Carney said Canada is seeking a bilateral deal with Mexico, while it was also reported that Canada agreed to postpone the opening of a new bridge to the US amid trade tensions.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Trump and allies are working on a plan to expunge impeachments, according to WSJ.
US President Trump said regarding fertiliser prices, that they might look into federal aid, and are looking at doing some form of help.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks rallied following on from the gains on Wall St, after President Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and touted a US-Iran deal, which could be signed as soon as the weekend and would open the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump claimed the US ended the war with Iran and he understood that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal. However, Iran pushed back on this as a Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but acknowledged that the text of the deal was almost ready.
ASX 200 climbed higher as outperformance in mining, materials and resources led the advances, while energy was pressured due to the drop in oil prices, and defensives also lagged amid the risk-on environment.
Nikkei 225 surged at the open and briefly tested the 67,000 level, with the index helped by lower oil prices and with tech and mining stocks sitting comfortably among the list of biggest gainers.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the euphoria with mining stocks among the notable gainers, while Chow Tai Fook was front-running the advances after it reported record full-year profit.
US equity futures remained afloat after rising on the hopes for a US-Iran deal, but with further upside capped, given the lack of confirmation from the Iranian side, while participants also look to the SpaceX debut.
European equity futures indicate a firmer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% on Thursday.
FX
DXY got some mild reprieve after weakening yesterday on President Trump’s flip-flopping regarding attacking Iran on what would have been a third consecutive night of strikes, while he cited discussions with Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved. Trump also said an agreement between the US and Iran would be signed soon, and the Strait of Hormuz will open as soon as the deal is signed, although an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Iran had not reached a final conclusion about the agreement. Nonetheless, oil prices tumbled, leaving bonds bid as Fed rate hike bets unwound.
EUR/USD slightly pulled back after recently benefiting from a weaker dollar following Trump’s announcements, while the ECB decision was broadly as expected, with a 25bps hike and the expected non-committal guidance and usual language. However, there were conflicting source reports regarding the next meeting, as Bloomberg sources stated that ECB officials see the next rate hike as soon as July, while Reuters noted ECB policymakers are eyeing a July pause if energy prices stay where they are, and that the ECB would need to see a material surge in crude prices to back a July hike.
GBP/USD took a breather after recently gaining on the positive risk environment, and with participants now awaiting the incoming monthly GDP and output data releases from the UK.
USD/JPY bounced back from a weekly trough and gradually returned to the 160.00 territory amid little fresh catalysts for Japan and no tier-1 data, while participants lie in wait for next week’s BoJ meeting.
Antipodeans pared some of their recent advances as the dollar regained composure, but with the pullback limited amid the broad heightened risk appetite.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8109 vs exp. 6.7640 (prev. 6.8150).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures took a breather following yesterday’s surge, as yields declined across the curve in tandem with lower oil prices after US President Trump touted a US-Iran deal.
Bund futures held on to its recent spoils after briefly returning to above the 126.00 level as the hopes for an end to the Iran war, and fall in oil prices, eased inflationary pressures.
10yr JGB futures edged higher, albeit in a somewhat choppy fashion heading closer to next week’s BoJ meeting, where the central bank is expected to hike rates and consider pausing its bond buying taper from next fiscal year, while it was also reported that Japanese Finance Minister Katayama is aiming to broaden retail JGB offerings.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures extended on declines after slumping yesterday by around 4% due to US President Trump’s announcement to cancel planned strikes on Iran, and that they made a settlement of the war with Iran in which a deal could be signed as soon as the weekend that would open up the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also stated that he understands Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal, although an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but acknowledged that the text of the agreement was almost ready.
Energy executives warned the White House that key oil reserves being used to limit the Iran war’s impact on prices are running dangerously low, according to CNN citing sources.
Venezuela signed oil and gas agreements with Shell (SHEL LN), including participation in the Loran offshore gas field and expanding energy sector cooperation.
Spot gold mildly pulled back overnight after briefly returning to above the USD 4,200/oz level as the dollar and yields dropped amid the hopes for a US-Iran deal.
Copper futures rallied in tandem with the broad risk-on environment after the encouraging announcements by US President Trump, who also claimed that they ended the war with Iran.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was choppy and headed into European trade little changed.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they are aiming to broaden retail JGB offerings and that retail Japanese government bonds remain unappreciated by households, while she stated that no impact is expected on the central bank policy meeting after BoJ Governor Ueda was hospitalised.
BoK Governor Shin said interest rates need to be raised before it’s too late and that inflation is to exceed the target for a considerable period of time.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukraine reported an attack by Russian drones on the Sumi region, according to Al Arabiya.
OTHER
US plans to significantly cut fighter jets and warships for NATO operations in Europe, with the US to pull a third of fighter jets, according to the New York Times.
North Korean leader Kim fully backs Russia’s policies and vows to always stand with Moscow, as Pyongyang deepens ties with Russia into a full strategic alliance, according to KCNA.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK appoints Dan Jarvis as the new Defence Secretary.
ECB’s Dolenc said the rate hike is just enough for now to follow the baseline, and they had a robust set of data to make a decision. Dolenc also stated that it is pretty obvious inflation will be higher and growth lower, while services inflation is stubborn and hard to fight.
ECB officials see the next rate hike as soon as July, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
China’s demographic collapse is so advanced that even an immediate return to replacement-level fertility cannot prevent a massive population decline because there are simply too few women of childbearing age.
The ageing crisis facing China is well documented and widely reported. The crisis stems from a combination of longer life expectancies and a reduction in births below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. The result is a smaller workforce, a smaller pool of taxpayers, a smaller group of consumers driving the economy, and a growing population of retirees who need financial and medical support.
China’s ageing crisis, however, is so acute that this framing misses a crucial structural issue.
Currently, the pool of women capable of bearing children is so depleted that even an overnight return to replacement-level fertility cannot prevent substantial population decline.
China has approximately 190 million women of childbearing age. Even if the fertility rate immediately rose to 2.1, the population would still decline by more than 40 percent by the end of the century. The demographic pyramid has already determined the outcome. The trajectory is irreversible.
China’s population has contracted for four consecutive years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ 2025 Statistical Communiqué, the total population stood at 1.40489 billion at the end of 2025, a net decrease of 3.39 million people. Births numbered 7.92 million against 11.31 million deaths, yielding a natural growth rate of negative 2.41 per thousand, the steepest annual loss on record outside of the 1959–61 famine caused by Mao’s misguided policies.
The 2024 uptick, driven by the auspicious Year of the Dragon, proved to be an outlier. Births fell 17 percent in 2025, reaching the lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.
Rhodium Group’s April 2026 analysis projects that even if births remain at 2025 levels for the next decade, the annual population decline will widen to 7.6 million by 2035, implying a cumulative loss of nearly 60 million people between 2026 and 2035, roughly equivalent to the population of France.
By mid-century, RAND projects that China could lose 250 million people from its current population of 1.4 billion. The United Nations’ longer-range estimate puts China’s population as low as 663 million by 2100 if current trends persist.
The crude birth rate of 5.63 per thousand in 2025, confirmed by the National Bureau of Statistics, was the lowest since 1949. China’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to approximately 1.0, less than half the replacement level of 2.1, placing it among what demographers classify as “lowest-low” fertility societies, alongside South Korea and Singapore.
The one-child policy, which began in 1980, prevented hundreds of millions of births, reducing the average number of children per family from six to fewer than two. As the CCP became aware of the looming demographic collapse, the policy was relaxed to allow two children in 2016 and then expanded to three children in 2021.
However, the shift to a two-child policy resulted in only a brief uptick in births, while the expansion to three children had almost no meaningful impact.
The cohorts now entering peak childbearing age are the children of the one-child generation, already a reduced cohort, and are now themselves having fewer children than their parents did. Each generation compounds the deficit of the last.
In major cities, the situation is worse still. Beijing’s population aged 20 to 29 fell from 4.6 million in 2015 to 2.5 million in 2024, a drop of more than 2.1 million, while residents aged 60 and above rose by more than 1.7 million during the same period. Shanghai recorded approximately 107,000 births against 164,000 deaths in 2025, a natural decrease of 57,000, offset only by net in-migration of more than 100,000. Rhodium Group notes that China’s most-developed coastal provinces are growing solely through internal migration, not reproduction.
The number of women of childbearing age has been further reduced by sex-selective births. China’s sex ratio stands at 1.04 males per female overall, with the imbalance more pronounced in younger cohorts. The population of women in their twenties fell by 35 million between 2010 and 2021. Those women were never born. They cannot be incentivized, legislated, or subsidized into existence.
On current decline projections, China’s elderly population aged 65 and over stands at 211 million, while the 50 to 64 age cohorts add another 325 million. Those cohorts will die before a new generation reaches maturity. United Nations projections estimate that China’s population will fall from 1.4 billion to 633 million by 2100 under current trajectories, the largest absolute population loss of any nation over that period. Even an immediate return to replacement-level fertility would not reverse the trend.
With only 190 million women of childbearing age, there are simply not enough potential mothers to offset the mortality burden of the older generations. The 40 percent decline estimate is conservative relative to the UN baseline because it assumes fertility immediately and permanently returns to 2.1, a scenario no demographer currently projects.
The CCP is not unaware of the crisis. Xi Jinping has publicly called for a new culture of marriage and childbearing. The government has extended maternity leave, offered cash bonuses for newborns, and eliminated tax incentives on contraceptives. None of these measures have worked. In fact, they have all been tried before and failed. South Korea, facing a similar ageing crisis, spent roughly $280 billion on pro-natalist programs over two decades, more per capita than any country in history, and still watched its fertility rate fall from 1.08 in 2006 to 0.68 by 2024.
Money and incentives cannot manufacture women who were never born. The demographic collapse is now mathematically guaranteed. The CCP may have finally defeated China.
END
CHINA/OIL
China Is Learning To Use Less Oil, And That’s A Bigger Deal Than It Sounds
Three months into the biggest oil supply disruption in modern history, China appears to have discovered something that should make oil bulls at least a little uncomfortable.
It can get by on less fuel than anyone thought.
China’s gasoline and diesel demand has been falling for years as electric vehicles gained market share and economic growth slowed. But the latest drop has surprised even seasoned observers.
According to Reuters, gasoline sales at Sinopec, China’s largest refiner and fuel retailer, fell 8% year over year in April, while diesel sales dropped 6%. Goldman Sachs estimates that consumption of gasoline and related products may have fallen by as much as 20%.
China has slashed crude imports since the Iran war began, with May imports plunging 29% to 7.8 million barrels per day—the lowest level in eight years. Until recently, many analysts viewed those cuts primarily as a function of China’s enormous oil stockpile and high crude prices.
Now another explanation is emerging: China may simply need less fuel.
Rail travel rose roughly 10% in March and April. Subway ridership continues to climb. Electric taxis are becoming increasingly common. Most notably, EV charging volumes surged 69% from a year earlier to a record high in April, according to the China Charging Alliance.
That shift comes as China’s refiners are already grappling with weaker economics. Sinopec cut refining runs earlier this year as Middle Eastern supply disruptions squeezed crude availability, while Beijing has sharply reduced fuel exports to preserve domestic supplies.
The property downturn isn’t helping either. Diesel demand from construction, long one of China’s most reliable sources of consumption growth, continues to weaken as projects stall and budgets tighten.
The question now is whether the trend sticks.
China’s refiners can only draw on inventories for so long. The country still maintains one of the world’s largest crude stockpiles, but even a billion barrels eventually run out. At some point, imports will need to recover.
What remains unclear is whether gasoline demand will recover with them.
For decades, China’s economic growth was one of the oil market’s most dependable bullish arguments. Today’s reports may have some rethinking the strength of that argument.
end
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
FRANCE/ISRAEL
France Is Latest EU Country To Ban & Sanction Israel’s Finance Minister
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 04:15 AM
A growing list of Western countries have imposed individual sanctions and travel bans on two Israeli hardline ministers who advocate for Jewish supremacy over the Middle East, evidenced in their expansionist policies from the West Bank to Gaza to Syria.
The two in question are Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir and Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. France is the latest country to ban Smotrich, after the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway already did the same.
Spain, Slovenia and most recently Ireland have also banned both, citing that they call for violence against Palestinians on the basis of their ethnic identity.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot this week explained that France is banning Smotrich because he “actively promotes the annexation of the West Bank, which he openly claims, the creation of new settlements in the West Bank, the re-colonization of Gaza, the economic collapse of the Palestinian Authority and its harmful consequences for the Palestinian population.”
“This is a policy that the overwhelming majority of the international community, firmly committed to the two-state solution, cannot accept,” Barrot wrote on X.
The legal action targets “those responsible for the escalation of settlement activity and violence in the West Bank,” Barrot said.
As expected, Israel’s foreign ministry in turn quickly condemned the sanctions as “disgraceful.”
The Israeli “government has condemned some settler violence, but that rings hollow when there is scant accountability” – the UK had earlier said of similar measures it adopted.
Smotrich as national finance minister bluntly stated last year that the Gaza Strip is a “real estate bonanza.” Further he claimed at the time that he was talks with the Americans on how to divide the enclave up once the Palestinians are kicked out.
There is “a real estate bonanza” in Gaza that “pays for itself” and he had “already started negotiations with the Americans,” he said at a past conference in Tel Aviv, according to local media.
“We have poured a lot of money into this war. We have to see how we are dividing up the land in percentages,” Smotrich said, explaining that “the demolition, the first stage in the city’s renewal, we have already done. Now we just need to build.”
END
UK
‘Full Force Of The Law’: British PM Threatens Belfast Anti-Immigration Rioters While Lowe Says ‘Millions Must Go’
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has threatened Belfast’s nighttime rioters with the “full force of the law” after they conducted arson attacks on cars and homes on Tuesday night after a brutal video went viral featuring a Sudanese man trying to behead a disabled Scottish victim.
“The scenes in Belfast last night were shocking and completely unacceptable. There is no justification for the violence and disorder that we saw threatening our communities, nor for those who encouraged it, online or elsewhere. It is clear that people were targeted last night because of their background and I will not tolerate it. Those responsible will feel the full force of the law,” wrote Starmer on X.
On the other end of the spectrum, Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe says “millions must go” in response to the attack on disabled 44-year-old Scottish victim Stephen Ogilvie.
Lowe went even further, stating that “civil servants, judges, and politicians” must be “held to account for what has been done to this country.”
“If they have knowingly placed unvetted dangerous third world savages in our communities, near our children, then a Restore Britain Government will aim to prosecute them. If that includes Reform’s Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman, then so be it. When they held the power – they welcomed that Sudanese monster into our country and handed him a visa. An attempted beheading followed their decision,” he continued.
Starmer’s Labour Party has accused tech billionaire Elon Musk of fueling the nighttime riots in Belfast. Protests turned violent on Tuesday evening after a shocking video showed a Sudanese man violently attacking Ogilvie with a knife before he was saved by locals who beat the perpetrator.
Yesterday evening, dozens of masked men gathered in residential areas and set fire to several houses, a shop, and numerous vehicles.
Labour Party leader Anna Turley partly blamed Musk and his news platform X for the riots after Musk shared several posts on Tuesday that had called for protests. Turley told Times Radio: “I think we need to acknowledge and see that social media plays a role in this. And I think there are actors with evil intentions who are often sitting many, many kilometers away.”
The knife attack follows a range of other heinous attacks and high-profile incidents involving foreign nationals in Great Britain. Numerous people shared calls for demonstrations, which were also picked up and further disseminated by Elon Musk.
While rallies in London, for example, were peaceful, groups of masked rioters gathered in Belfast before sunset and began setting fire to cars and buses. In the later hours, they directed their anger at houses where migrants also lived. A Middle Eastern supermarket was also set on fire.
Trump: Iran Deal Should Be Done ‘Pretty Quickly’ But ‘Subject To Settling’ Over Next Few Days
Thursday, Jun 11, 2026 – 03:44 PM
Summary
Trump Talks Endgame In Iran: Says ‘we’ll have a signing very soon.’
TACO SEASONING: Trump tells NY Post that Iran deal “pretty much all wrapped up,” but FARS news agency says no deal has been approved.
TACO: Trump Cancels Strikes After All Day Bluster About ‘Bigger’ Strikes on Iran Tonight (shocking TACO!)
Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf says “Wrong strategies and impulsive decisions will reset the entire board for the worse, explode energy infrastructure and markets & create an endless quagmire that you will be stuck in for years.”
Trump follows with mention of “bigger, more powerful” bombing of Iran tonight. He pledged “they’re finished”.
Trump announces intent to hit the Iranians “VERY HARD TONIGHT” (surely there will be no TACO?)
President Donald Trump announced Thursday evening that he had cancelled scheduled U.S. strikes and bombings against Iran, citing rapid progress on a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at extending a fragile ceasefire and launching formal negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program. In a Truth Social post and a phone interview with the New York Post, Trump said the agreement was “pretty much all wrapped up,” with documents at a “fairly final stage.” He added that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and claimed the deal had received approval at the highest levels in Iran and from multiple regional players, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place until the deal is signed, with time and location of the signing to be announced shortly.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office later confirmed that Trump spoke with Netanyahu this evening specifically about the emerging MOU. According to the readout, Netanyahu expressed appreciation for Trump’s commitment that any final agreement would require the removal of enriched nuclear material, dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and an end to Iran’s support for terrorist proxies – even though Israel is not a direct party to the MOU. Earlier in the day, Trump had sharply escalated rhetoric by threatening to seize Iran’s key oil-export hub at Kharg Island and hit Iran “very hard,” a move widely seen as leverage that may have accelerated the diplomatic opening.
“President Trump spoke this evening with Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding the emerging memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran to enter into negotiations,” the PM’s office wrote on X. “Even though Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding, the Prime Minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump’s commitment that the final agreement at the conclusion of negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for its terrorist proxies in the region.”
Iranian state media, including Fars News Agency, quickly pushed back, stating that no final MOU text had been approved. Some Israeli officials also indicated they had not been briefed on a finalized deal. Markets reacted positively in the short term, with U.S. stocks rising and oil prices falling on hopes of de-escalation. The developments remain fluid, with both sides continuing to trade public signals amid ongoing regional tensions.
Trump Claims Iran Deal ‘Pretty Much All Wrapped Up’ – FARS Says No Text Approved
President Trump told the New York Post in a phone interview that the US-Iran agreement is “pretty much all wrapped up,” claiming high-level approval and announcing he has called off further strikes on Iran.
Iranian state media immediately pushed back. Fars News Agency, citing a source close to Iran’s negotiating team, stated that no text for the initial memorandum of understanding with the United States has been approved.
The dueling statements reflect the familiar pattern in these negotiations: the US side projecting near-completion while Iranian officials emphasize that no final text has received leadership approval. This comes amid ongoing indirect mediation efforts, including Qatari involvement.
* * *
Trump Cancels Strikes After All Day Bluster About ‘Bigger’ Strikes on Iran Tonight
TACO Thursday… Trump again backs off prior repeat vows. He’s been threatening since last night that he’ll “bomb the shit” out of Iran, and followed by specifically saying this morning that ‘bigger airstrikes’ would come tonight. It’s after 9pm in Iran and there’s been nothing yet.
And now the president is saying he’s canceled the planned strikes altogether. He’s saying this is due to “discussions” at the highest level with Iranian leadership. But Tehran has rejected that it’s engaged with talks. One side or the other is lying. Might the following from CNN have some direct bearing on this sudden reversal in intentions?
Energy executives have warned the White House that key oil reserves being used to limit the Iran war’s impact on prices are running dangerously low, via CNN citing sources.
Stocks surging, oil dumping…
Oil plunges after the bombshell Truth Social reversal and sudden de-escalation in US military posture from the Commander-in-Chief:
end
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN//THURSDAY NIGHT
June 11: Netanyahu says Israel not party to emerging Iran deal announced by Trump
Calling off planned strikes, US president says signing of MoU could be as early as this weekend in Europe, and he believes Khamenei has agreed to framework agreement, though Tehran says no decision made yet
US President Donald Trump sits during an event in the Oval Office of the White House, June 11, 2026, in Washington. (AP/Jacquelyn Martin)
Ultra-Orthodox men block a highway between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, on June 11, 2026. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
IDF troops operate near the Wadi Saluki stream in southern Lebanon, in a handout photo published June 11, 2026. (Israel Defense Forces)
Illustrative: A US Air Force F-35 Lightning II assigned to the 48th Fighter Wing, approaches a KC-135 Stratotanker during a refueling mission over Sweden, June 10, 2026. (US Air Force)
This screen grab made from a handout video recorded on June 10, 2026, and released by US Central Command on June 11, 2026, shows what the US military says is a strike by US forces targeting and disabling the Guinea-Bissau flagged tanker M/T Jalveer as it allegedly attempted to evade a US counter-blockade of Iranian ports. (US Central Command Public Affairs / AFP)
Firefighters work to extinguish a fire caused by a debris from intercepted Iranian drones in Manama, Bahrain, June 11, 2026. (Bahrain Interior Ministry)
Mourners carry the coffin of Hezbollah operative Hassan Ali Kallas, from the southern Lebanese village of Nabatieh al Fawka, during his funeral at a temporary cemetery in the southern coastal Lebanese city of Sidon, on June 11, 2026. (Anwar AMRO / AFP)
The Times of Israel liveblogged Thursday’s events as they unfolded.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a cabinet session on June 7, 2026. (Screenshot/Itay Beit-On/GPO)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump speak by phone about the emerging deal with Iran, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.
In a statement that seeks to downplay the significance of the potential agreement, Netanyahu’s office says the two spoke about “the emerging memorandum of understanding with Iran regarding entry into negotiations.”
In the conversation, Netanyahu expressed a rather optimistic take on an agreement, according to his office.
“Although Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding,” says the PMO, “the prime minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump’s commitment that the final agreement reached at the conclusion of the negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limitations on missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for its terrorist proxies in the region.”
In recent weeks, Trump has only talked about a deal on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and has moved away from demands on ballistic missiles or support for terrorism, issues Iran says it will not discuss.
END
FRIDAY MORNING/IRAN VS USA/ISRAEL
‘US-Iran Deal Is Near’ Narrative Returns, But Tehran Refuses To Surrender Hormuz Leverage
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 07:45 AM
After having heard the same line many, many times before – and yet with no result (instead, more often the opposite of sliding into further conflict and escalation) – Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday welcomed the “progress” made between the United States and Iran in indirect negotiations.
CNN and other mainstream outlets are reporting on this “hint” that an interim deal taking shape (again). But given the pattern and track record of such reporting, which has consistently proven premature, elusive, and often downright false – it’s hard not to have cynicism and to see much of this as but crude propaganda aimed at keeping energy prices down.
“Both sides welcomed the progress achieved through sustained diplomatic engagement and expressed hope that these efforts will soon lead to a durable understanding and peaceful resolution,” according to Pakistan’s readout of a Foreign Ministry call with the European Union’s chief diplomat.
And yet, the message out of Iran does not suggest positive momentum or the beginnings of any kind of deal taking shape – though it remains that anything is possible (depending on how much either side is willing to ‘give up’ their respective red lines and firm positions).
Iran is currently saying the Strait of Hormuz is ‘firmly’ under IRGC control – an assertion the Pentagon has vehemently rejected, with Iranian Admiral Habibollah Sayyari saying it continues to wield “power” over the Gulf region.
“The west of the Strait of Hormuz, the strait itself, and the Persian Gulf are under the firm control of the IRGC Navy,” Sayyari was quoted as saying in state media. “No vessel can enter without our permission.” Another commander also asserted that “We have had and continue to have power in the region” – batting down Trump’s words which say Iran’s military has been utterly defeated and decimated at this stage.
But again, returning to the optimistic Friday reports, which may have no basis in reality whatsoever (time will tell), CNN is going so far as to report on the venue of a signing ceremony for a Tehran-Washington Memorandum of Understanding:
A signing ceremony for a memo of understanding with Iran would most likely be held in Geneva, Switzerland, three sources told CNN on Friday. That signing could take place as early as Sunday, according to a person familiar with plans.
That comes after US President Donald Trump on Thursday touted a “great settlement” that could resolve the war with Iran, suggesting it would be finalized in the coming days. Trump said he anticipated a signing ceremony for the document soon, potentially in Europe, to be attended by Vice President JD Vance. However, Iranian officials have yet to confirm an agreement has been reached.
Two sources with knowledge of the diplomatic talks said the signing ceremony would be held in Geneva – not far from where Trump and a US delegation will attend a G7 summit next week in France. One of those sources said a signing ceremony would mark the start of “phase two” of diplomatic talks, as officials work through the implementation of the memo of understanding.
Multiple sources said the memo is being called the “Islamabad declaration,” in recognition of the key mediating role Pakistan played. But nothing has been confirmed, and an Iranian source suggested the Austrian capital Vienna was also being considered.
But the nature of the MoU would likely just involve committing to a framework basis on which both sides would get back to the negotiating table, and not yet necessarily a final, lasting peace deal. Iranian state media on Friday did seem in agreement that there’s been some level of progress on at least getting back to formal talks based on a MoU, per Bloomberg:
Iran’s semi-official news agency Mehr said the countries are negotiating an agreement in which the strait would be reopened within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. Under a draft agreement, the US would have no role in the future management of the strait and Iran would make no commitment to transfer control or restore conditions that existed before the US and Israeli attacks, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has meanwhile rejected media speculations regarding an agreement and reaffirmed Iran’s resolute and principled stance, per Mehr. He stated: “Textually, the text has almost been finalized in its major parts. The problem is that the contradictory positions of the United States have always caused turbulence and disruption in this process.”
In terms of even rhetoric alone, the two sides still seem very far apart:
President Trump on Thursday insisted the U.S. was nearing a deal on peace talks with Iran, pulling back from his threats just hours earlier to launch more military strikes and seize Iran’s oil infrastructure.
Trump said Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had signed off on the plan, which he said would be completed in coming days, paving the way for additional talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
Tehran said it hadn’t decided. “Iran hasn’t reached a final conclusion about the agreement,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, according to state media. “We will announce it when we reach a conclusion.”
Iran’s IRNA news agency reports the issue of US sanctions on Iran will be left for after the signing of the memorandum of understanding and a 60-day deadline for conducting peace negotiations.
“Iran does not offer any commitments in the memorandum regarding the nuclear issue, and the other party does not commit to lifting the sanctions,” it said.
“If Tehran decides to sign the memorandum, some of its frozen funds will be released immediately, and the rest gradually.”
Tehran reaffirms its position in the following fresh statement:
“Contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz. The only matter referred to in the memorandum of understanding is the return of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz after the end of the war,” Iran’s state media reported.
“The main objective of signing the memorandum of understanding is to end the war on all fronts”, it added.
All of this comes during a week which started with Iran and the US renewing a state of active fighting, and with Gulf states coming under Iranian ballistic missile attack, in retaliation for the latest waves of major US tomahawk strikes against Iran.
Still, Bloomberg and others are reporting the following: “US and Iran Nearing a Peace Deal Around G7 Meeting Next Week.” What can be said except we’ve been here before, and time will tell. Did Trump cancel yesterday’s planned strikes because a deal is really finally being forged?
END
WHICH IS IT?
Trump Bats Down Iran Version Of MoU As ‘Fake News’ – Oil Spikes On Return To Deal Pessimism
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 09:50 AM
Trump Bats Down Iran’s MoU Narrative & Terms
And there it is: President Trump himself denies the earlier in the morning return of a ‘deal is near’ – by taking to Truth Social and rejecting the stated Iranian terms (as delivered publicly in state media sources):
Immediately, the expected and familiar spike in oil and the return to pessimism, though at this point there have been no bombs away, after the White House canceled what was to be a third night of strikes (last night):
‘US-Iran Deal Is Near’ Narrative Returns, But Tehran Refuses To Surrender Hormuz Leverage
After having heard the same line many, many times before – and yet with no result (instead, more often the opposite of sliding into further conflict and escalation) – Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday welcomed the “progress” made between the United States and Iran in indirect negotiations.
CNN and other mainstream outlets are reporting on this “hint” that an interim deal taking shape (again). But given the pattern and track record of such reporting, which has consistently proven premature, elusive, and often downright false – it’s hard not to have cynicism and to see much of this as but crude propaganda aimed at keeping energy prices down.
“Both sides welcomed the progress achieved through sustained diplomatic engagement and expressed hope that these efforts will soon lead to a durable understanding and peaceful resolution,” according to Pakistan’s readout of a Foreign Ministry call with the European Union’s chief diplomat.
And yet, the message out of Iran does not suggest positive momentum or the beginnings of any kind of deal taking shape – though it remains that anything is possible (depending on how much either side is willing to ‘give up’ their respective red lines and firm positions).
Iran is currently saying the Strait of Hormuz is ‘firmly’ under IRGC control – an assertion the Pentagon has vehemently rejected, with Iranian Admiral Habibollah Sayyari saying it continues to wield “power” over the Gulf region.
“The west of the Strait of Hormuz, the strait itself, and the Persian Gulf are under the firm control of the IRGC Navy,” Sayyari was quoted as saying in state media. “No vessel can enter without our permission.” Another commander also asserted that “We have had and continue to have power in the region” – batting down Trump’s words which say Iran’s military has been utterly defeated and decimated at this stage.
But again, returning to the optimistic Friday reports, which may have no basis in reality whatsoever (time will tell), CNN is going so far as to report on the venue of a signing ceremony for a Tehran-Washington Memorandum of Understanding:
A signing ceremony for a memo of understanding with Iran would most likely be held in Geneva, Switzerland, three sources told CNN on Friday. That signing could take place as early as Sunday, according to a person familiar with plans.
That comes after US President Donald Trump on Thursday touted a “great settlement” that could resolve the war with Iran, suggesting it would be finalized in the coming days. Trump said he anticipated a signing ceremony for the document soon, potentially in Europe, to be attended by Vice President JD Vance. However, Iranian officials have yet to confirm an agreement has been reached.
Two sources with knowledge of the diplomatic talks said the signing ceremony would be held in Geneva – not far from where Trump and a US delegation will attend a G7 summit next week in France. One of those sources said a signing ceremony would mark the start of “phase two” of diplomatic talks, as officials work through the implementation of the memo of understanding.
Multiple sources said the memo is being called the “Islamabad declaration,” in recognition of the key mediating role Pakistan played. But nothing has been confirmed, and an Iranian source suggested the Austrian capital Vienna was also being considered.
But the nature of the MoU would likely just involve committing to a framework basis on which both sides would get back to the negotiating table, and not yet necessarily a final, lasting peace deal. Iranian state media on Friday did seem in agreement that there’s been some level of progress on at least getting back to formal talks based on a MoU, per Bloomberg:
Iran’s semi-official news agency Mehr said the countries are negotiating an agreement in which the strait would be reopened within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. Under a draft agreement, the US would have no role in the future management of the strait and Iran would make no commitment to transfer control or restore conditions that existed before the US and Israeli attacks, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has meanwhile rejected media speculations regarding an agreement and reaffirmed Iran’s resolute and principled stance, per Mehr. He stated: “Textually, the text has almost been finalized in its major parts. The problem is that the contradictory positions of the United States have always caused turbulence and disruption in this process.”
In terms of even rhetoric alone, the two sides still seem very far apart:
President Trump on Thursday insisted the U.S. was nearing a deal on peace talks with Iran, pulling back from his threats just hours earlier to launch more military strikes and seize Iran’s oil infrastructure.
Trump said Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had signed off on the plan, which he said would be completed in coming days, paving the way for additional talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
Tehran said it hadn’t decided. “Iran hasn’t reached a final conclusion about the agreement,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, according to state media. “We will announce it when we reach a conclusion.”
Iran’s IRNA news agency reports the issue of US sanctions on Iran will be left for after the signing of the memorandum of understanding and a 60-day deadline for conducting peace negotiations.
“Iran does not offer any commitments in the memorandum regarding the nuclear issue, and the other party does not commit to lifting the sanctions,” it said.
“If Tehran decides to sign the memorandum, some of its frozen funds will be released immediately, and the rest gradually.”
Tehran reaffirms its position in the following fresh statement:
“Contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz. The only matter referred to in the memorandum of understanding is the return of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz after the end of the war,” Iran’s state media reported.
“The main objective of signing the memorandum of understanding is to end the war on all fronts”, it added.
All of this comes during a week which started with Iran and the US renewing a state of active fighting, and with Gulf states coming under Iranian ballistic missile attack, in retaliation for the latest waves of major US tomahawk strikes against Iran.
Still, Bloomberg and others are reporting the following: “US and Iran Nearing a Peace Deal Around G7 Meeting Next Week.” What can be said except we’ve been here before, and time will tell. Did Trump cancel yesterday’s planned strikes because a deal is really finally being forged?
END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
First Real Breakthrough? Iran Says Deal Is ‘Closer Than Ever’ In Unexpected First, Oil Prices Tumble
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 11:05 AM
Summary
Surprise, surprise: Iran FM says sides “have never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course.”
Trump on Truth Social rejects Iran’s version of MoU terms (below): “What they said, including their weak & pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth.”
Tehran: “Contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz.”
CNN speculates (prematurely, it seems) on Geneva signing of ‘Islamabad Declaration’ as soon as Sunday or next week.
Now this is a true first: President Trump sharing FM Arachchi’s tweet…
First Time Iran Pushes Positive ‘Closer Than Ever’ To Deal Statement, Oil Drops
Amid the constant back and forth yo-yo and ping pong concerning how close or not a final MoD between Tehran and Washington is, now Tehran is pushing the “never been closer” rhetoric, which is somewhat of a surprise given Trump just called their own public ’14-points’ “fake news” in terms of US agreement to it.
But this is the first time in a long while that the Iranian side has side anything positive on the question of reaching a deal, and getting back to a direct negotiating framework. The country’s top diplomat has just stated that the warring sides have never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course.
After crude jumped on Trump’s ‘fake news’ Truth Social (below, which indicated he had not accepted many key Iranian demands), oil pushed back down on the new Araghchi statement:
And there it is: President Trump himself denies the earlier in the morning return of a ‘deal is near’ – by taking to Truth Social and rejecting the stated Iranian terms (as delivered publicly in state media sources):
What they said, including their weak & pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth.
Immediately, the expected and familiar spike in oil and the return to pessimism, though at this point there have been no bombs away, after the White House canceled what was to be a third night of strikes (last night):
END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON
Mother Of All ‘Ifs’: Trump Officials Claim Iran Deal Delivers Peace, Inspections & Hormuz Reopening; Iran Says Indeed ‘Close’
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 01:40 PM
Summary
Bloomberg latest: US Senior admin officials says Iran deal accomplishes core US objectives and deal reopens Strait of Hormuz; Iran deal guarantees long-term peace in region and includes inspection regime.
Pakistan PM Sharif: “we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached & Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.”
Surprise, surprise: Iran FM says sides “have never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course.”
Trump on Truth Social rejects Iran’s version of MoU terms (below): “What they said, including their weak & pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth.”
Tehran: “Contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz.”
CNN speculates (prematurely, it seems) on Geneva signing of ‘Islamabad Declaration’ as soon as Sunday or next week.
Trump Admin Official: Imminent Deal Accomplishes Core US Objectives
Bloomberg is out with some specifics, via an unnamed Trump admin official, providing some further texture to what seems the most ‘hopeful’ (emphasis on the tick marks) development concerning a finalized Memorandum of Understanding to end the war and hash out a final deal…
It remains that there are a healthy dose of ifs in here…
BBG: US Senior admin officials says Iran deal accomplishes core US objectives and deal reopens Strait of Hormuz [Iran has a very different interpretation of this point]; Iran deal guarantees long-term peace in region and includes inspection regime.
If Iran complies, will be rewarded economically.
Benefits for Iran accrue if they actually deliver.
US expects to sign agreement overt next few days.
US to get enriched material under Iran deal.
Draft agreement also lifts US blockade and leads to dismantlement of Iran nuclear programme.
Iranians don’t get anything upon signing agreement.
Not quite at finish line yet, but very close.
80-85% confident a deal gets signed.
Iran deal is specific about opening Strait and lifting of blockade and moving of enriched material.
Will be significant sanctions relief based on how Iran performs.
US seen substantial progress in text of agreement.
Regional peace agreement is broad.
Agreement on specificity over destruction and removal of enriched material.
Confident Israelis will get on board.
Some Iranians don’t love this deal, but think dissent is quite minimal.
Vice President JD Vance has sought to clarify the US position:
Iran is “not receiving any cash” just for signing a deal, Vice President JD Vance said Friday.
Vance said in a post on X that he was “seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal.”
“The Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting,” he said, adding that the agreement on the table had been structured, “to ensure that the U.S. and its allies’ concerns are prioritized.”
Only if Iran “meets its obligations, then economic benefits will flow to them and to the entire region.”
“This deal has the potential to remake the region and lead to lasting peace,” he said. “The president is going to get us a good outcome, one way or the other.”
As a reminder, here are the 14-points issued by the Iranian side on Friday:
1. An immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon.
2. A commitment by Washington not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect its sovereignty.
3. A complete lifting of the maritime blockade within 30 days.
4. A commitment by the United States to withdraw its forces from the vicinity of Iran.
5. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, according to Iranian arrangements.
6. The suspension of sanctions imposed on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, while enabling Iran full access to the financial resources generated from them.
7. The necessity of presenting reconstruction plans for Iran valued at no less than $300 billion by the United States and its allies.
8. Conducting negotiations within a 60-day period to reach a final agreement that includes nuclear issues, the full lifting of primary and secondary U.S. sanctions, as well as the cancellation of resolutions by the UN Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
9. Iran reaffirms its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to produce nuclear weapons.
10. A U.S. commitment, during the negotiation period, not to increase its forces in the region and not to impose new sanctions on Iran.
11. The release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds within 60 days, with half of this amount made available to Iran before the start of negotiations and after signing the memorandum of understanding.
12. The establishment of a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.
13. The approval of the final agreement through a resolution issued by the UN Security Council.
14. Final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of the frozen Iranian funds, the suspension of oil sanctions on Iran, and the lifting of the maritime blockade. The final agreement shall be limited to the fate of enriched materials, uranium enrichment activities, the lifting of sanctions, and the reconstruction program of the Iranian economy, while excluding any discussion of Iran’s missile program and support for resistance movements from the agenda entirely.
There’s clearly still some seriously daylight between the warring sides, however, so by close of the weekend – or possibly just within the next hours – the reality of the situation is likely to be made known. Via newswires:
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Says Iran’s decision-making bodies are meeting about the memorandum – State TV.
IRAN CIVILIAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ACCEPTABLE: US OFFICIAL
Pakistan PM: Final MoU Text Has Been Reached
Pakistan Chimes In with PM Sharif declaring that “we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.” Oil drops lower.
SHARIF: FINAL, AGREED UPON TEXT OF PEACE DEAL HAS BEEN REACHED
PRESIDENT TRUMP TOLD ME IN A SHORT CALL THAT HE CONSIDERED IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ARAGHCHI’S POST “VERY POSITIVE” – AXIOS REPORTER
Why Israel stopped when Trump said stop: Understanding the 12-hour Iran war
DIPLOMATIC AFFAIRS: A startup’s relationship with Google and North Korea’s path to the nuclear bomb offers unexpected insights into this week’s 12-hour war with Iran.
PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. Never has Israel had a more supportive president in the White House, and never has Israel been so dependent on a US president, the writer asserts.(photo credit: JIM WATSON/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)ByHERB KEINONJUNE 12, 2026 13:04
Israel waged the Six Day War in June 1967. The 12-Day War with Iran in June 2025. And now, in 2026, the 12-hour war. Again with Iran. Again in June.
To help make sense of what happened, what the country experienced, and what it means going forward, it is useful to look at other examples.
In a Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security Zoom briefing this week, former National Security Council head Yaakov Amidror and Eran Lerman, a former senior NSC official, turned to two seemingly unlikely examples: North Korea and Google.
No free lunch for Israel
First, Google.
The week’s events made it clear to everyone in Israel that there is no free lunch. US President Donald Trump’s support for Israel – the steps he has taken across the board over the years to assist the country – is not without a cost. And the cost is that he gets a say, a big say, in what Israel can and cannot do.
US President Donald Trump reacts as remarks are delivered to reporters about his administration’s support for coal energy production, among other topics, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US June 4, 2026. (credit: REUTERS/JONATHAN ERNST)
Never has Israel had a more supportive president in the White House. That’s the upside. The downside? Never has Israel been so dependent on a US president.
And this is where Google comes into play.
Amidror said that he has two friends with startups in which Google decided to invest. Both welcomed the partnership.
But after a year, both realized that when Google is your partner, Google has something to say about how the company is run. Amidror said one of his friends disliked the arrangement and decided to sever the partnership and continue on his own.
The other chose to stay with Google and figure out how to work with its input.
“If someone thinks that when Google is your partner, you can neglect Google, I think they are making a big mistake,” Amidror said.
“But you have to make a strategic decision. Do you want to continue with Google and have some flexibility here, or do you say, ‘Okay, I’ll continue alone without Google?’”
Amidror said that when he posed that question to other friends, they all gave the same answer.
“All my friends told me that if they had to make the decision, they would stay with Google. This is the situation of Israel today. We are with Google, and we have to take into consideration that Google is our partner.”
The US, to carry the metaphor, is Israel’s Google. As a result, it will have a say in how we run our startup.
At times, that smarts. At times, it is frustrating. At times, it limits your ability to make fully independent decisions.
But it also carries enormous benefits – benefits that should not be overlooked in a moment of frustration over interference by the larger partner.
Keeping the bigger picture in mind
IT IS ALSO important to keep the bigger picture in mind. And what is the bigger picture? Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu often boasts that he has been sounding the alarm about Iran’s nuclear program for more than 30 years. And he has. It has been his top priority.
When history is written a hundred years from now, one of the defining elements of Netanyahu’s legacy will be his efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
That remains his overriding priority. Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas – all of that is secondary. What is key, what is essential, is preventing Iran from getting the bomb.
Then along comes Trump and says, “I’m almost there. I’m just a step away from getting the Iranians to concede on the nuclear issue in negotiations. The military pressure, the economic pressure, it’s having an effect, and soon they will give it up in talks.”
Do you believe him – a president who has declared peace where there is no peace, victory where there is no victory, and the destruction of Iran’s military capabilities when they clearly still possess them? Maybe not.
But remember: he is Google, and Google has a say.
Why Netanyahu bends to Trump’s demands
This is why Netanyahu deferred this week to Trump’s wishes and did not carry out the type of attack Israel had reportedly planned for Iran on Monday after the Iranian regime fired 11 ballistic missiles at Israel. Trump said stop shooting, and Israel – and Iran – stopped shooting.
Why?
To give those negotiations a chance.
Trump, being Trump, cast this in terms of his own omnipotence – at least when it comes to Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, he has repeatedly suggested over the last few weeks in various forums and in various ways, will dance obediently to his tune.
“He’s fine. He will do whatever I want him to do. He’s a very good man,” Trump told reporters on May 20.
On Sunday, he told the Financial Times: “I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots.”
And on Tuesday, he told the BBC: “If I tell him to do something, he does it.”
Those quotes will inevitably be trotted out by Netanyahu’s political opponents during the upcoming election campaign as evidence that the prime minister is Trump’s poodle and puppet.
The widespread assumption, at least until recently, was that Netanyahu was Trump’s preferred candidate. If that is the case, doesn’t Trump realize that remarks like these could be politically toxic?
Perhaps. But Trump, too, has domestic political considerations.
According to Lerman, Trump has been stung by accusations from the Tucker Carlson wing of the MAGA movement that Netanyahu dragged him into the war with Iran.
Comments such as “If I tell him to do something, he does it” need to be seen in the context of rebutting the charge, increasingly common in some US circles, that the Iran episode is a classic case of the tail wagging the dog.
While Lerman said Trump has been “quite decisive” in shutting down the anti-Israel and antisemitic elements of the MAGA landscape, he added that the president is nevertheless “affected by the music and has responded to it.”
Which brings us to North Korea.
“One of the best examples of bad diplomacy in modern history is the success of North Korea in becoming a nuclear power,” Amidror said.
One reason the US did not use force to stop North Korea, he argued, was South Korea’s adamant opposition.
And why was South Korea opposed?
Because of the fear that, in the event of a US attack, North Korea would unleash devastating force against Seoul, which sits only 60 km. from the Demilitarized Zone.
The North Koreans have thousands of artillery pieces and rocket launchers dug into the mountains along the border that, South Koreans feared, could be used in a massive retaliatory barrage on the capital. So they forcefully urged the US not to strike.
Iranians learned ‘hostage strategy’ from North Korea
The Iranians have learned more from the North Koreans than just how to build missiles. They have also learned the value of this “hostage strategy.”
IRAN IS effectively holding the Gulf states hostage in much the same way North Korea held Seoul hostage – not only deterring overwhelming American action but also helping persuade Washington to limit Israel’s attacks.
“The Iranians are slowly building this same dynamic in the Gulf,” Amidror said. “What they are saying clearly is, ‘If you do something to Iran, we will destroy the Gulf countries.’
“Under the table, these countries are saying to the Americans: ‘If you are going to take action, do it to the end. Finish this regime. Destroy its capabilities totally. But if you don’t finish the job, don’t put us – the Gulf countries – in a very dire situation. Because if you go halfway, at the end of the day we will pay the price.’”
The Iranians have succeeded in creating a “coercive situation” in the Gulf because the Americans are not ready to go the extra mile and totally destroy Iran’s capabilities, Amidror said.
Lerman, trying to make sense of Trump’s often contradictory rhetoric – one day talking about obliterating Iranian civilization, the next about meeting the new Iranian leader – offered a riff on the well-known saying by the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu: “Know thyself and know thy enemy, and you will not lose a hundred battles.”
The Trump version, he said, is: “If you don’t know what you’re doing, the enemy doesn’t either.”
That said, Lerman added that Trump has shown a determination to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state. And that, too, may stem from North Korea.
“The experience of trying to get Kim Jong Un to give up on his nuclear project during Trump’s first term – and failing – has taught him that these kinds of regimes have to be stopped before they have the bomb,” he said.
“And on this, I think he’s been very consistent. Either they actually give him something distinctly better than the deal [then-president Barack] Obama struck, or we may go back to square one.”
Meaning, back to a full-scale war.
Whether Trump is right about the negotiations is anyone’s guess. What this week demonstrated, however, is something else entirely: that Israel’s strategic dependence on the US is now so deep that when the president says stop, Israel stops.
That may be frustrating. It may even be uncomfortable and humbling.
But, as Amidror’s start-up story illustrated, that is the price of having Google as your partner.
END
HEZBOLLAH/IRAN
IDF pushes deeper in into Lebanon to neutralize threat of Hezbollah
IDF assessments have determined that they can’t fully disarm the terror organization but can push them back far enough into Lebanon to significantly reduce the risk to Israeli citizens.
In the last few weeks, the IDF has advanced past the Litani River in Lebanon and is now approaching the Zaharani River.
With the Zaharani River only six kilometers away, and Nabatieh only three kilometers away, Hezbollah has become concerned about a new IDF advance and has reinforced those areas.
Some defense officials believe that completely disarming Hezbollah is unrealistic, but that if Hezbollah could be cleared out of Lebanon not only to the Litani River, but all the way up to the Zaharani River, the volume of threats that the Lebanese terror group would be able to fire so as to reach Israel’s northern border villages would shrink dramatically.
In order to make its recent advances, the IDF said that it carried out tricky maneuvers, fooling Hezbollah’s many video cameras, such that the Lebanese terror group expected the IDF to cross the Litani River into the Wadi Saluki and other areas from one direction, and instead the IDF came from another direction.
IDF forces have found a large number of Iranian-level sophisticated tunnels and larger and more dangerous anti-tank weapons in these areas.
Israeli soldiers man a roadblock along the Ramim Ridge area in northern Israel following suspected militant infiltration incident along the Israel-Lebanon border. June 09, 2026. (credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
The IDF works to neutralize drone threats
While the IDF has pushed Hezbollah back to reduce its FPV drone threat, the military was asked about the fact that fiber cables for such drones can extend 20-30 kilometers, which would still put northern Israeli villages in range.
The IDF responded that Hezbollah’s effectiveness with drones had depended on using smaller drones, which are harder to see in advance.
In order to attack with fiber cables extending 20-30 kilometers, Hezbollah would need to use larger drones carrying larger batteries, or the drones would run out of power before reaching their target.
Once Hezbollah would need to use larger drones, they would be easier to see and hit in advance, the IDF explained, showing that moving Hezbollah back could force it into difficult tactical choices.
END
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL
IDF strikes over 300 Hezbollah sites, kills five Gaza terrorists, captures 50 suspects in West Bank
In addition, the IDF operated to combat smuggling along Israel’s eastern and western borders.
AN IDF soldier aiming out of a window in southern Lebanon.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)ByTZVI JASPERJUNE 12, 2026 11:01
Over the past week, the IDF has conducted operations on three separate fronts, aiming to handle terrorism threats from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, from the Gaza Strip, and from the West Bank, the military announced on Friday.
In addition, the IDF operated to combat smuggling along Israel’s eastern and western borders.
In southern Lebanon, the Israeli Air Force struck approximately 310 Hezbollah sites, killing around 80 terrorists, the IDF stated.
Ground forces also conducted operations in the area, dismantling infrastructure and removing threats.
Meanwhile, in the Gaza Strip, IDF forces worked to continue dismantling terror tunnels, with a focus on Khan Yunis. Over 20 terrorists were killed during these operations, the IDF said, including three senior Islamic Jihad terrorists, and the head of a Hamas funds transfer infrastructure and his deputy.
IDF SOLDIERS operating in the Gaza Strip. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
IDF captures over 50 terror suspects in West Bank, seizes weaponry
West Bank counterterrorism operations captured over 50 suspects, who were wanted for inciting terrorism, advancing terror activities, and possessing and trading weaponry.
IDF forces in the West Bank also confiscated 250,000 shekels intended for terrorism, as well as a lathe used to manufacture weapons, a drone, military equipment, ammunition, and more than 10 weapons including handguns and improvised Carlo weapons.
Gabbard releases intelligence showing federal government has funded 120 biolabs in 30 countries
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard announced Friday that she is releasing never-before-seen documents concerning the U.S. government funding 120 biolabs in 30 countries, including Ukraine.
“In support of President Trump‘s Executive Order to end federal funding of dangerous gain of function research around the world, and increase transparency and accountability, ODNI [Office of the Director of National Intelligence] will continue working with partners across the administration to identify where these labs are, what pathogens they contain, and what ‘research’ is being conducted,” Gabbard said in X.
In Friday’s announcement, Gabbard said that the Intelligence Community had previously warned that a biolab funded by the U.S. existed in Ukraine and likely contained dangerous pathogens. As the war with Russia continues, the labs are vulnerable to Russian attack, seizure or damage.
Many of the 120 labs engaged in research involving highly contagious pathogens and gain-of-function research with little oversight, according to the ODNI release.
“Despite the obvious potential for catastrophic global impact research on dangerous pathogens in biolabs can have, politicians, so-called health professionals like Dr. [Anthony] Fauci, and entities within the Biden administration’s national security team lied to the American people about the existence of U.S.-funded and supported biolabs, and threatened those who attempted to expose the truth,” Gabbard said in a statement.
END
GABBARD AGAIN;:
Gabbard Rescinds Intelligence Committee Reports On Mysterious Syndrome
Outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has retracted intelligence community reports on mysterious health problems known as Havana Syndrome, according to a memorandum released on June 11.
Gabbard found that the intelligence community assessments of the anomalous health incidents, released in 2023 and 2025, failed to meet the community’s analytic standards.
That included selectively excluding intelligence and evidence that did not support the conclusions and relying on an “ethically flawed medical study without noting methodological critiques,” Gabbard’s office said in the memo, sent to members of Congress.
The 2023 assessment concluded it was very unlikely that a foreign adversary was behind the incidents, which have impacted staffers in countries such as Cuba and China.
The updated assessment released in 2025 said most intelligence agencies still held it was very unlikely an enemy was responsible for the syndrome, but two components judged there was a “roughly even chance” that a foreign actor had used a novel weapon to target Americans, or had developed such a weapon.
Gabbard’s team said future assessments on the matter would adhere to “rigorous ethical standards incorporating all available intelligence sources and engaging a broad range of experts from agencies including the CIA.”
Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.), the former chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence CIA Subcommittee, who has criticized the government reports, praised the new development.
“The assessment was deliberately manufactured and used to discredit some of our nation’s bravest and impede their access to medical care. As was the case with other high-visibility intelligence assessments, it fell far short of analytic integrity standards,” Crawford wrote in a post on X.
He added that the retractions were “a glimmer of hope for our nation’s intelligence officers, service members, and diplomats stationed around the world who have defended this country in austere locations and subsequently had the nation they served turn its back on them.”
The subcommittee said in a 2024 report that it was increasingly likely that a foreign adversary was behind some number of the reported health problems, and that the 2023 assessment was developed “in a manner inconsistent with analytic integrity and thoroughness.”
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine said in 2020 that the most likely mechanism behind the incidents was directed, pulsed radio-frequency energy, citing symptoms people have described, such as perceptual dizziness.
Government employees reporting the problems have had difficulty obtaining treatment, the U.S. Government Accountability Office said in July 2024, recommending that the military develop written guidance and create a plan to rectify those difficulties.
Gabbard said last month that she is resigning from her position as the director of national security, citing her husband’s recent cancer diagnosis.
President Donald Trump said on June 11 that he is nominating Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York and a former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, as director of national intelligence.
The job oversees the coordination of 18 intelligence agencies.
END
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
(MOLLY SCHWARTZ)
Fool Me Once? Shame On You. Fool Me 39 Times…?
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 09:45 AM
By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank
After several days of strikes against Iran, and several morning announcements that strikes were set to continue, Trump announced via Truth Social that the “scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran” have been cancelled as a peace deal has been agreed upon. Indeed, “discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved…the Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this transaction is finalized — time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.”
According to our recently published energy strategy report, 103 Days, 38 Peace Deals, yesterday’s announcement would constitute the 39th peace deal declared since the onset of the war. Speaking of, the report highlights the “massive drop in Chinese imports,” leading to a downward adjustment of Rabobank’s brent crude oil forecasts, now projecting $103/bbl in Q3 of this year.
But back to the peace deal, it should be noted that the provided list of “all parties involved” does not include one party who some would argue is pretty heavily involved…Iran. Perhaps Iran was counted in the “and others” part of the list, but this wouldn’t be the first time the US proposed a deal it thinks Iran can’t refuse, just for Iran to either outright refuse it, or announce that it never received such a peace deal in the first place. It should also be noted that some of the “involved parties” who were listed, like Israel and Pakistan, have confirmed that they had not been informed of any agreement at the time the peace deal was initially announced.
That doesn’t mean that this peace deal is for certain another empty announcement. Indeed, economists often assume things turn out similar to precedent, of course, until they don’t. But the market’s reaction to the deal coupled with the major IPO events today may add further credence to our view that defense-related rhetoric these days has just as much to do with financial markets as they do with geopolitics.
The S&P 500 had sunk around 4.4% from its recent high of $7,610 to $7,277. The peace deal announcement, however, sparked a sharp sell-off in brent crude oil of $3, breaking to its lowest level since April. The move in oil dragged interest rates down—with the 10 year down more than 8bp to trade below 4.45% again—and pulled stocks back up, fueling an almost 1.7% upwards jump in the S&P and a 3.5% jump in the NASDAQ. Coincidentally, SpaceX’s IPO, which has been said to “draw more than $100 billion in retail orders,” is also scheduled for today.
Early yesterday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X that “any damage [Iran] inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian accounts. Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.” This draws attention to one of the key contentions between the US and Iran when it comes to striking a deal, in that Iran wants USD 12 billion of Iranian funds unfrozen if an interim deal is achieved, which the US is reluctant to accept, remembering when the Obama Administration unfroze around USD 100 billion as part of the JCPOA in 2015, the consequences of which the US may or may not be dealing with today.
But Axios reports that this peace deal is different from the others, with “sources” saying that “gaps have been narrowed” on key issues like unfreezing Iranian assets, the process for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and how negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program would be conducted.
Rates started the day yesterday bubbling higher after a hot PPI print, registering 1.1% m/m in the headline and 0.8% m/m when excluding food, energy, and trade. While the 1.1% headline print is hot enough to give anyone the sweats, the core print is particularly concerning, as it strips out the first order inflationary effects and reveals that second order inflation pressures may have already started to crawl out of the woodwork on the production side. There is only so much time before these costs are likely to be passed onto the consumer. After the PPI data release, the OIS curve had been pricing in around one Fed hike by year end. However, that number dropped to only 70% of a hike after the peace deal announcement.
In the Eurozone, meanwhile, the ECB is already full steam ahead. Yesterday, the ECB released its decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.25%, making it the first major central bank to hike rates. The decision statement cites that “the war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area.” Our ECB whisperer, Bas van Geffen, is forecasting the next hike at the September meeting.
END
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS//ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Traders Are Shorting Oil As If The Hormuz Crisis Is Over
Oil traders are increasingly betting on lower prices, with short positions in Brent crude tripling since late March despite the loss of roughly 13 million bpd of supply from the Middle East.
Physical market fundamentals are tightening rapidly, as global inventories have fallen by about 250 million barrels and key storage hubs like Cushing are approaching critically low levels.
Analysts warn the market may be underestimating supply risks, with even a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely to provide immediate relief.
In yet another sign that the paper oil market may be too complacent about the magnitude of the supply disruption in the Middle East, trades have been boosting their short positions in oil futures for most of the past two months.
Since the beginning of April, portfolio managers have been increasingly betting that oil prices would fall, according to the latest available commitment of traders (COT) data from exchanges as of June 2.
Shorts on Brent Crude tripled between the end of March and the beginning of June, per the data compiled by energy analyst John Kemp.
As of June 2, the short positions in Brent Crude had jumped to their highest level since January, when the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the market expected increased supply from Venezuela in the coming months.
The surge in short positions and the weeks-long selloff of longs in the past eight weeks suggest traders are betting that supply will be restored soon.
The paper market plays on hopes, expectations, sentiments, and fears, and the sum of all these right now appears to be that the hedge fund and portfolio manager community is reluctant to bet on a summer of actual physical supply shortages.
But the paper market may soon face the reality of crumbling global inventories, including in the United States, where stocks at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI Crude, are just a few weeks away from dropping to minimum operational levels.
Too much noise about the ceasefire, which is being tested almost daily with one strike or a retaliatory hit after another, doesn’t help the paper market that may have become too detached from the magnitude of the supply loss.
Traders react to every signal of ‘imminent deal’ with selloffs, only to start buying oil futures again when Israeli strikes in Lebanon, U.S. ‘self-defense’ strikes on Iran, or Iranian hits at regional infrastructure threaten to unravel the fragile ceasefire.
All the while, paper market participants continue to hope for an imminent resolution and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that would flood the market with oil. And that’s been their hope for three and a half months now.
The thing is, even a full reopening of the Strait would not lead to immediate relief for buyers. First, ship owners and operators will need to have guarantees that they wouldn’t be caught off-guard with stranded tankers again. Then, the oil cargoes will need weeks to reach buyers—weeks that the market may not have amid peak summer demand season.
The world has lost about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its market report for May.
“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said, adding that observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April, or by 4 million bpd.
Sooner rather than later, oil on water volumes and onshore inventories will be depleted, leaving demand destruction the only buffer to cap oil price spikes.
Moreover, the extreme price volatility and the noise about a deal coming any day now are sidelining part of the trader community.
“Participants continue to sit on the sidelines, given the market’s fluidity, uncertainty, and headline-driven nature,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note on Wednesday.
“This is reflected in the aggregate open interest in ICE Brent, which has continued to trend lower and stands at its lowest level since August 2025.”
Many traders have been shorting oil since April in the hope that the ceasefire and the negotiations would yield a peace deal before the world runs out of buffers to offset most of the supply disruption.
“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started and over the next few weeks,” Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference at the end of May.
“We’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there’s more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”
According to the Wednesday note of ING’s strategists, “With no imminent deal in sight and with the global oil market tightening significantly every day, we see upside to prices, particularly if these disruptions linger into the third quarter, a period of seasonally stronger oil demand.”
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined for three consecutive weeks, dropping from $4.56 per gallon on May 21 to $4.12 per gallon on Thursday.
Lower gasoline prices are “delivering some relief to drivers during the busy summer travel season,” the American Automobile Association (AAA) said in a June 11 statement.
“Gas prices typically peak around this time of year, but uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz makes this year more unpredictable. Pump prices remain at four-year highs, but the national average is currently far from the record set on June 11, 2022, of $5 per gallon.”
On Friday, prices declined marginally to $4.1 per gallon, which is lower by roughly 40 cents from a month back, according to AAA data. In five states, prices exceeded $5 per gallon—California, Hawaii, Washington, Alaska, and Oregon.
In its statement, AAA attributed the three-week decline to crude oil prices remaining below the $100 per barrel level.
Brent crude oil futures prices shot up after the war began, hitting a high of over $126 per barrel on April 30. Oil was trading at $87.44 per barrel as of 6:50 a.m. EDT on Friday, up from around $72 per barrel on Feb. 27, the day prior to the breakout of the war. Prices have remained below the $100 level every trading day this month.
Iran has repeatedly attacked and threatened commercial ships transiting via the Strait of Hormuz since the war started. The strait is a crucial shipping waterway located south of Iran through which over 20 percent of global seaborne oil trade transits. The disruption of shipments via the Strait has pushed up oil prices.
The conflict between the United States and Iran has intensified in recent days. On June 10, the U.S. military launched new strikes on Iran after it struck an American helicopter in a violation of the ceasefire. Iran then launched attacks against U.S. air and naval assets across Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
On Thursday, the U.S. Central Command said American forces disabled a third oil tanker that was attempting to carry Iranian oil as part of a maritime blockade imposed on Iran’s ports. Since the blockade came into effect on April 13, U.S. forces have disabled nine vessels in total and redirected 135 ships.
Oil Price Forecast
In a June 11 post, ING Bank said there is “little tangible evidence” of any imminent deal between Washington and Tehran to get energy supplies flowing normally via the Strait of Hormuz.
As such, the oil market is expected to continue tightening, eventually reaching a level where it becomes highly vulnerable to “significant upside.”
“From an inventory perspective, we believe that the end of July could be an inflection point for the market if there is no improvement in energy flows from the Persian Gulf. This could see ICE Brent spike to $120-130/bbl, prompting increased pressure to come to a deal,” the bank said.
“And failing a deal, one can’t rule out the possibility that we get to a point where energy-starved buyers are more willing to pay Iran tolls for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.”
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted in its June 9 Energy Outlook report that oil shipments via the strait may only resume in the third quarter of 2026.
However, even with the resumption of transit, it will likely take several months for the traffic to hit pre-conflict levels, which is not expected to happen until early 2027, the EIA said, adding that Brent crude oil spot prices are predicted to average $105 per barrel in June and July.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said on Thursday that a U.S.–Iran deal is close.
“We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran,” Trump said in the Oval Office. “And we’re going to be, subject to finalization of documents, which should get done over the next few days, probably have a signing, maybe in Europe.”
Trump said the deal has been approved by Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
In a June 11 Truth Social post, the U.S. president said the final points of the deal have been discussed and approved by other parties involved in the conflict, including Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
“The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized,” Trump said.
END
Kuwait Joins “Dark-Mode” Tanker Traffic Through Hormuz
Kuwait appears to have joined a growing bunch of Middle Eastern oil and gas producers that have moved to ship energy cargoes in dark mode through the Strait of Hormuz.
The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carrier Gas Umm Al Rowaisat, which is owned by the national Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, has passed through the Strait in recent days, then transferred the cargo onto another ship which is currently en route to an Indian port, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Thursday.
The Gas Umm Al Rowaisat loaded LPG in May in the Gulf, and then switched off its AIS positioning, before reappearing close to the Indian coast this weekend, according to the data.
This is the latest instance of a tanker going dark as it moves through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE, Iraq, and other Gulf producers have increased shipments of oil, LNG, and LPG on tankers in dark mode in recent weeks.
Since the war began on February 28, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by 90% to 95% compared to pre-war levels, leaving the market about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) short of crude and fuel supply that was previously freely flowing to buyers.
Some oil cargoes continue to trickle through the critical chokepoint, but under increasingly opaque operating conditions, complicating the tracking of oil and gas flows and obscuring the visibility of how much energy supply actually reaches buyers these days.
More vessels are leaving the region after passing the Strait of Hormuz in a dark mode with transponders switched off, and those entering the Persian Gulf to load cargoes are increasingly doing the same.
The dark-mode tactics, once the feature of Iran-linked vessels aiming to skirt sanctions, are now the norm for the majority of commercial traffic at the Strait of Hormuz, energy flow-tracking firms say.
END
DOE Declares Southeast Grid Emergency As Sweltering Heat Boosts AC Demand
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 02:40 PM
As the U.S. men’s national soccer team kicks off its first match against Paraguay in Southern California on Friday night, large swaths of the country are trapped in what feels like a wet sauna, with dangerous heat and humidity forcing households to crank up their air conditioning and straining power grids from the Southeast to the Northeast.
On Thursday, the Department of Energy issued an emergency order to mitigate blackout risks across the Carolinas amid extreme heat that threatens to sharply increase power demand.
The order, issued under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, allows Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress to run certain generating units at maximum output.
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated, “Maintaining affordable, reliable, and secure power in the Duke Energy service territory is non-negotiable.”
“The previous administration’s energy subtraction policies weakened the grid, leaving Americans more vulnerable during events like this. Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, we are reversing those failures and using every available tool ensuring Americans in the Carolinas’ have continued access to affordable, reliable, and secure energy to power and cool their homes,” Wright said.
Maximum temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic, especially around Washington, D.C., have ranged from the 80s to the 90s, reaching as high as 95°F on Thursday. Some relief is expected this weekend, but temperatures are forecast to rebound next week as heat builds back into the region.
“It’s super humid in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but relief is coming by Saturday,” Meteorologist Ben Noll wrote on X.
Bloomberg noted that grid stress materialized late Thursday, with PJM real-time power prices rising above $1,300 per megawatt-hour as sweltering heat lingered across the Mid-Atlantic. New York’s grid operator prepared to activate emergency demand response, while New England’s grid operator declared abnormal conditions as heat indices approached 100°F.
We have seen four-digit territory before. As we covered in April when PJM prices shattered $1,000/MWh after first running during the January freeze to $2,300+, the same structural weakness keeps reappearing. Demand surges, variable resources drop off, and the system leans on whatever thermal capacity can still run.
It is the direct consequence of a generation mix that has shed firm, dispatchable megawatts faster than it has replaced them with anything that actually shows up when the forecast is wrong and the temperature is not.
The blackout in Spain is a phenomenal example of when this is taken to the extreme. And based on some recent warnings from ERCOT, Texas could be the next example.
When push comes to shove on the electric grid, it’s not the renewables that are there to help…
Renewables and batteries help at the margin on good days. They do not solve the evening ramp or multi-day heat dome when every household and every server farm is pulling maximum power. The emergency waiver for Duke is the quiet admission that the current fleet cannot carry the load without violating the operating permits it was given.
Nuclear is the obvious technology that could have filled this gap with carbon-free, always-available capacity. A fleet of new reactors sited years ago would be delivering gigawatts of firm power right now without anyone needing to waive emissions rules or beg demand response programs to shed load.
Instead, the United States has spent the better part of four decades adding almost no new nuclear capacity at commercial scale. As we have documented repeatedly, including in our coverage of the NRC’s new fast-track permitting framework promising 6–12 month construction permit timelines, the regulatory environment has improved dramatically under the current administration. Yet the shovels in the dirt remain conspicuously absent for most projects.
On watch for tropical activity in the Gulf of America.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN
this will be over shortly!
New Pakistani Strikes On Afghanistan Kill 13 Civilians, Taliban Says
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Several months ago, close in time to when the US-Iran war started, a separate conflict had erupted further east, along the Af-Pak border and even reaching as deep into Afghanistan as far as Kabul (where Pakistani airstrikes rained down).
Hostilities have abruptly flared up again along the Afghan-Pakistan border overnight as cross-border airstrikes launched by the Pakistani military killed 13 civilians, according to Afghan Taliban officials.
The aerial attacks impacted the Afghan border provinces of Kunar, Khost, and Paktika, stated Zabihullah Mujahid, according to Afghan officials.
There has been relative calm in the situation as a months-long ceasefire largely held, but the new bombardment marks the deadliest single episode in several weeks.
The Pakistani side has made no mention of civilians, but instead says its operation killed over two dozen armed militants:
Pakistan’s government said on Wednesday that 26 “militants” linked to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group were killed in the attacks.
“In the aftermath of recent terrorist incidents in Pakistan …. precise and calibrated Strikes were carried out along Pakistan Afghanistan border areas on hideouts and safe havens,” Pakistan’s information minister Attaullah Tarar posted on X.
He did not comment on any civilian casualties after Afghan authorities, who have denied Afghanistan is used for militancy, said at least 12 people, including children, were left dead in the strikes.
An AFP correspondent has offered a vastly differing account, with on report saying: “An AFP journalist saw a house completely destroyed in the southeastern province of Khost, where residents were digging graves to bury those killed in the overnight attack.”
Taliban government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stated in the aftermath that “11 children, one woman, and one elderly man were killed” in strikes on Khost, Kunar and Paktika provinces.
Pakistan’s military released footage and its own counter-narrative:
Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which share the disputed 1,600-mile Durand Line, have shifted from cautious engagement to open hostility.
The history has been marked by shifting from one-time allies to on-and-off again enemies. Many analysts are pointing to ‘blowback’ for Pakistan after sponsoring the Taliban’s rise in the first place, decades ago (which also had the help of the CIA in ‘Operation Cyclone’). Islamabad accuses Afghanistan of sheltering Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants who carry out cross-border attacks.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FGRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1581 UP 0.0006
USA/ YEN 160.07 DOWN 0.065 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3415 UP 0.0002 OR 2 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3985 UP 0.0012 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 12 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 44.50 PTS OR 1.12%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 468.81 PTS OR 1.93%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.99%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 468.81 PTS OR 1.93%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 44.50 OR 1.12%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.99%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1840.73 PTS OR 0.25%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4223.20
silver:$67.43
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 46.26 PLUS 10 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 72.56 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 36 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.8160 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.516 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.409 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.059 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 99.68 DOWN 17 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.383% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.631% DOWN 5 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 37988 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.447 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.760 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0125 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1567 DOWN 0.0008 OR 8 basis points
USA/Japan: 160.26 UP 0.123 OR YEN IS DOWN 13 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.8670 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.566 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS.
REAR VIEW: US/Iran closer than ever to peace deal; US expects to get enriched material under Iran deal; Trump said deal terms reported via “fake news” is false; Iranian FM noted MoU has never been closer; Pakistan PM confirmed a final agreed-upon text of a peace deal has been reached; UAE reportedly to unlock billions of dollars for Iran; UoM tops expectations; SpaceX closes 19% higher on IPO.
COMING UP: Data: German Wholesale Prices (May), EU Industrial Production (Apr), US Industrial/Manufacturing Production (May). Speakers: ECB’s Lagarde.
WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include Fed, BoJ, RBA, BoE, SNB, US Retail Sales, Japan CPI, UK Inflation and UK Jobs. Click here for the full report.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
US indices closed the final trading session of the week amid global risk-on trade as Iran and the US appear closer than ever to a peace deal, although some points still need clarification before the two countries sign on the dotted line. Highlighting how close they may be, mediator Pakistan PM Sharif said he can confirm that a final, agreed-upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalise the next steps, with source reports adding both the US and Iran have informed mediators of their readiness to sign. Sectors were largely in the green with only Consumer Discretionary and Health marginally in the red as a lot of focus surrounded the SpaceX IPO, who closed at USD 161/shr, against the IPO price of USD 135/shr.
The Dollar saw slight gains vs. G10 FX peers, albeit within contained ranges, as participants await a slew of central banks next week, including the BoE, Fed, BoJ, and SNB.
Treasuries were marginally lower across the curve, despite weakness in crude prices, as markets continued to digest developments surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement. On oil, benchmarks were lower by c. USD 3.50/bbl as participants await any weekend updates re. the peace deal.
Precious metals were divergent, as spot gold was lower and spot silver eked out slight gains.
Whilst it took a back seat, the US preliminary University of Michigan for June was strong, as all major metrics topped expectations, with inflation expectations for both the short term and longer-term horizon fell.
US
MICHIGAN: Prelim University of Michigan for June impressed, as as inflation expectations fell much more than anticipated, and the headline metrics beat. Sentiment rose to 48.9 from 44.8, above the expected 46.0 and outside the top end of the forecast range, as did both conditions and expectations. Conditions rose to 48.4 (exp. 46.2, prev. 45.8) and expectations encouragingly lifted to 49.3 (exp. 44.3, prev. 44.1). 1yr ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.6% (exp. 4.9%, prev. 4.8%), and the longer-term 5yr tumbled to 3.4% (exp. 3.8%, prev. 3.9%). Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu writes that lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets; however, views of the economy are still relatively dour.
T-noted bid despite oil slump as eyes turn to FOMC next week.
THE DAY: Treasuries were marginally lower across the curve on Friday, with yields edging higher despite weakness in crude prices as markets continued to digest developments surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement.
It appears a deal is at least in its final stages and could be signed in the coming days. Pakistan’s Prime Minister stated that an agreement has been reached between the US and Iran and that both sides are now working to finalise the next steps. Energy markets remained choppy throughout the session, however, as US and Iranian media circulated differing accounts of the proposed deal. A reported 14-point Iranian proposal was pushed back on by US officials, while US media separately reported a five-point framework. Despite the conflicting reports, both President Trump and Iran’s Foreign Minister urged participants to ignore speculation and await official announcements, potentially suggesting negotiations remain constructive.
Elsewhere, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey was the key economic release. The preliminary June headline rose above expectations, supported by improvements in both current conditions and consumer expectations. Inflation expectations also eased, with the 1-year measure falling to 4.6% from 4.8% and the 5-year measure declining to 3.4% from 3.9%. The data generated little market reaction, although a successful US-Iran agreement and further declines in energy prices could support additional improvements in sentiment and inflation expectations in the months ahead.
Attention now turns to next week’s FOMC decision. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, but focus will centre on whether the Committee removes its easing bias from the statement. Markets will also closely watch Chair Warsh’s press conference for further insight into his views and how policymakers are balancing resilient labour market conditions against inflation that remains above target.
SUPPLY
Notes
US Treasury to sell USD 13bln of 20-year bonds on June 16th, to settle June 22nd; to sell USD 24bln of 5-year TIPS on June 18th, to settle June 30th
Bills
US to sell USD 89bln of 13-week bills, and USD 77bln of 26-week bills on June 15th, to settle on June 18th
US to sell USD 65bln of 6-week bills on June 16th, to settle on June 18th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Fed Pricing: 24bps (prev. Dec 18.5bps)
EFFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.62%), volumes at USD 106bln (prev. USD 106bln) on June 11th
SOFR at 3.60% (prev. 3.59%), volumes at USD 3.061tln (prev. USD 3.023tln) on June 11th
NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 0.454bln (prev. 0.460) across 6 counterparties (prev. 3)
CRUDE
CRUDE WRAP: WTI (M6) SETTLED USD 2.83 LOWER AT 84.88/BBL; BRENT (Q6) SETTLED USD 3.05 LOWER AT 87.33/BBL
The crude complex was lower on Friday, as the US and Iran appear closer than ever before to reaching a peace deal. Highlighting this, both sides, the US and Iran, as well as Pakistan, have made remarks regarding the close proximity of an agreement, with sources even noting Pakistan’s Foreign Minister will leave tonight for Geneva, a destination touted for the signing, albeit with nowhere confirmed yet. Further, Pakistan PM Sharif remarked he can confirm that a final, agreed-upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalise the next steps. Despite the very positive developments and being in the final stages, some details still need to be ironed out, as both sides came out today following the initial 14-point MoU, which was leaked. Trump said the terms that Iran leaked out to the fake news have nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing, while the Iranian Foreign Minister added the Islamabad MoU has never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course. In more recent trade, US senior administration official added Iran deal accomplishes core US objectives, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, guarantees long-term peace in the region, includes an inspection regime, and allows the US to get enriched material under the Iran deal. As such, into the weekend, participants await any further details or signing of the Islamabad MoU.
In addition, Reuters source reports noted the UAE is to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, with the sources adding at least USD 10bln to be unlocked under the deal, with the first USD 3bln tranche already sent.
For the record, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count saw oil rise 2 to 433, nat gas fall 3 to 121, leaving the total down 1 at 562.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.50% at 7,431, NDX +0.64% at 29,636, DJI +0.69% at 51,207, RUT +0.79% at 2,944
SECTORS: Health -0.16%, Consumer Discretionary +0.01%, Communication Services +0.33%, Technology +0.37%, Industrials +0.58%, Consumer Staples +0.69%, Energy +0.72%, Real Estate +0.95%, Utilities +1.12%, Financials +1.35%, Materials +1.83%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +2.05% at 6,181, Dax 40 +1.66% at 24,613, FTSE 100 +1.63% at 10,472, CAC 40 +1.83% at 8,351, FTSE MIB +1.97% at 51,497, IBEX 35 +2.59% at 18,764, PSI +0.76% at 9,094, SMI +1.32% at 13,708, AEX +1.70% at 1,081
STOCK SPECIFICS:
Index Changes: Astera Labs (ALAB), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius Group (NBIS), Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Teradyne (TER) will be added; Charter Communications (CHTR), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), Insmed (INSM), Verisk (VRSK) and Zscaler (ZS) will be removed.
Adobe (ADBE): Reported a USD 500mln organic guide-down to H2 ARR; CFO leaving for MRVL, reinforcing software-sector AI disruption concerns; overshadows record results, AI-driven demand & raised outlook
Lennar (LEN): Rev. missed.
Nvidia (NVDA): Informed Chinese clients “Vera” CPU could be available in August w/ orders being accepted
AMD (AMD): Citi upgraded AMD to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’.
Travelers (TRV): Downgraded at Barclays to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’.
Exxon (XOM) reportedly studying takeover targets including Woodside Energy (WDS).
Meta (META) plans to restrict employee token usage, The Information reports.
Roku (ROKU) said to be in sale talks, Bloomberg reports.
FX
The dollar was little changed on Friday, finishing the week ~0.3% lower on US-Iran talks reaching final stages. Today, updates continued to swing positive when looking at officials instead of the Iranian media. Iran’s FM appears to be on the same page as Trump regarding talks: “The MoU has never been closer and is pending its finalisation”. US yields moved higher despite oil prices settling lower, likely adding a floor for the USD in the risk-on environment. Currently, Trump has signalled a deal could be signed this weekend; however, the Iranians have declined to comment on the when and where of such an event. Separately, UoM was positive, all three indices beat, accompanied by declines in the inflation expectations as gasoline prices eased. The Space X IPO sparked little volatility within the markets, with the VIX currently lower on the session and US equities holding onto gains. Over the weekend, eyes are on the Middle East and whether a deal gets signed. Into next week, focus will split on the Fed, where the central bank is expected to hold rates. As it stands, new Fed Chair Warsh is anticipated to lean dovish; however, a hawkish press commentary would be seen as a surprise to markets, likely strengthening the USD. DXY now trades around 99.75 from the weekly open of 100.145
G10 FX price action was fairly contained. AUD, GBP, EUR, NZD, and CAD were flat, while the havens, CHF, and JPY saw modest losses as participants favoured higher-beta assets. Volatility is expected to pick up next week, given that the Fed, BoJ, RBA, BoE, and SNB all have rate announcements. Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead preview.
USA DATA RELEASES
UMich Sentiment Bounces Off Record Low In June, Inflation Fears Fade
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 10:11 AM
After reaching all-time record lows in May, analysts expected UMich’s Sentiment index to rebound modestly in preliminary June data and it did, up from 44.8 to 48.9 (well above 46.0 exp), with consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in gasoline prices.
Source: Bloomberg
“This measured improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education, and political party,” said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, adding that “lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets.”
Well that will wreck the Democrats narrative…
Inflation expectations dropped in this early June data…
Once again we are confused because while the headline UMich inflation expectation over the next year declined, all political parties saw higher expectations (and Independents now have a higher inflation expectation that Democrats while Republican expectations are rising)…
Are they just making this shit up?
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS\
Crisis Comes Closer: Social Security’s Projected Insolvency Moved A Year Earlier
Thursday, Jun 11, 2026 – 05:20 PM
Continuing a trend of increasingly dismal projections, Social Security’s trustees have revised their prediction of when the massive benefit program’s trust fund will run out of money, moving it to the fourth quarter of 2032, sooner than last year’s projection that the money will run out in 2033. They attributed most of the the change to declining fertility rates and immigration, along with tax reductions included in Trump’s 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
When the trust fund runs out, money will still be coming into the program via ongoing taxes from workers and self-employed individuals. However, without the ability to tap the trust fund, the program won’t be able to keep paying out full benefits. Under the law governing the program, insufficient assets means payouts must be cut for all beneficiaries by a uniform percentage. In their report posted on Tuesday, the trustees projected that benefits will have to be slashed by 22% in 2032.
That scenario assumes Congress and the president fail to intervene by then. Given older Americans’ high propensity to vote — which will only be magnified with their retirement income under threat — it’s a safe bet that something’s going to change to fend off an across-the-board slashing of benefits.
Potential tweaks include raising the eligibility-age for receiving Social Security income, increasing payroll taxes that fund the program, and “means-testing” that would cut benefits for better-off Americans. The federal government would like you to believe that Social Security isn’t currently means-tested, but it truly is in a back-door way: the higher your income, the more your Social Security benefit is taxed. Taxation of Social Security income is just a roundabout way of slashing benefits — by giving you your “full” benefit but then confiscating a portion. Congress could also choose to throw out the (increasingly fictional) framework that positions Social Security as a self-funding pension program — by opting to fund benefits with general revenue and borrowing.
Though Congress has long kicked the can down the road, we’ll soon have a group of legislators trapped by the timing of their particular tenure in office, and compelled to take action for the first time since a 1983 deal brokered by President Ronald Reagan and House Speaker Tip O’Neill. “Senators elected this fall will be in office when the SocSec trust fund hits insolvency. So it *should* be a major campaign issue. But few voters care,” observed the Brookings Institution’s Jessica Riedl on X. “They have their silly narratives (‘stop stealing the trust fund,’) & fake solutions (‘remove the cap’). But, y’all were warned.”
“Remove the cap” refers to the fact that the Social Security portion of the payroll tax is only applied to incomes up to $184,500 in 2026. Demagoguing leftist politicians regularly tout removing the payroll-tax cap as a simple solution, but as with the government’s broader fiscal woes, the problem is so large that sticking it to more prosperous Americans doesn’t get you very far.
The trustees pointed to multiple factors driving their revised projection on when the trust fund will run out. In addition to dropping fertility rates — which continues to worsen the ratio of people taking benefits to to people paying into the program — they also said reduced immigration is lowering program revenue. They also noted that revenue has been decreased by Trump’s OBBBA-enabled $4,000 tax deduction that primarily benefits moderate-income recipients of Social Security benefits. Riedl and the American Enterprise Institute’s Andrew Biggs also highlighted a much lesser-known dynamic that’s pushing Social Security toward insolvency:
Though Social Security’s crisis is getting closer and closer, most federal politicians will continue to steer clear of the issue until 2032, and the few who dare to address it before then will be promptly accused of “attacking” the program.
END
PRIVATE EQUITY IN TROUBLE: BLACKROCK GATES!!
(zerohedge)
Blackrock’s Private Credit Fund Gates Investors Again After Redemption Requests Surge
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 12:00 PM
The market may be in full-blown face-ripping bubble mode, and software stocks are now gripped in by a category 5 gamma squeeze hurricane, but not even that is helping the ongoing debacle that is private credit.
One week after Cliffwater’s Private Credit fund gated investors for a second straight quarter, and days after Blackstone also gated investors in its private credit fund for the first time (recall during Q1, the fund allowed investors to redeem a record 7.9% after tapping senior executives to help finance the withdrawals with hundreds of millions of their own cash, but when faced with an even bigger flood of redemptions in Q2 it gave up and decided to join the gate parade), BlackRock capped redemptions from its flagship private credit fund for the second straight quarter after investors sought to pull about 13%, a sign that shareholders remain extremely nervous about the health of the $1.8 trillion private credit market.
Blackrock’s HPS Corporate Lending Fund, known as HLEND, said it would allow only 5% redemptions, according to a filing Friday. The request for 13.3% was about 50% higher than the prior quarter when shareholders asked to redeem 9.3% of their shares.
So far this quarter we have seen an acceleration in redemption requests as private credit investors clearly are concerned about their liquidity despite the raging bull market in all other asset classes.
“This liquidity feature is critical to HLEND’s ability to provide its investors with a premium return to public credit markets,” the firm said in a letter to investors. “This profile is further bolstered by continued subscriptions and distribution reinvestment, which together are expected to more than fully offset repurchases during the first six months of 2026.”
As Bloomberg reminds us, HLEND’s decision to cap redemptions in the previous quarter was the first major instance of a private credit manager taking action to enforce the limit and manage liquidity since concerns over underwriting standards and exposure to software businesses vulnerable to AI disruption bubbled to the surface early in the year.
The move was a contrast to its top rivals including Blackstone, which had gone to great lengths to satisfy investor demands for cash. But this quarter, Blackstone also enforced the 5% limit on its flagship private credit fund after investors asked to redeem even more money than in the prior period.
Indeed, redemption requests are set to increase across the industry as investors redouble efforts to claw back money after being restricted. And there’s persistent concerns about the credit cycle turning, with industry leaders warning of a rise in defaults as artificial intelligence continues to disrupt businesses and borrowings from the era of ultra-low rates comes due.
HLEND has produced a 10.2% annualized total return since it was formed, the letter said, which is cold comfort to those investors who are hoping to redeem their profits and instead receive a gating notification.
FLORIDA
Florida Supreme Court Allows New GOP Congressional Map To Remain In Place
The Florida Supreme Court on Wednesday declined to block a new congressional map approved by Republican lawmakers earlier this year.
The map allows the districts to remain in place as the state prepares for upcoming elections.
The decision marks a victory for Gov. Ron DeSantis and Republican leaders who advanced the mid-decade redistricting effort following a US Supreme Court ruling involving Louisiana’s congressional map.
DeSantis signed the revised map into law in May after the nation’s highest court ruled that Louisiana’s congressional plan, which included an additional majority-Black district, violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
The new Florida map could strengthen Republicans’ position in the state’s congressional delegation.
Republicans currently hold a 20-8 advantage in Florida’s US House seats, and the revised districts could potentially expand that margin to as much as 24-4.
The legal challenge was brought by several Democratic groups that sued the state shortly after the map was enacted.
A Florida judge previously rejected efforts to stop the map from taking effect.
On Wednesday, the Florida Supreme Court upheld that decision in a 6-1 ruling, according to The Hill, refusing a request for a temporary injunction against the new districts.
The ruling means the map will remain in place while other legal challenges continue.
Opponents of the map wanted the court to require Florida election officials to continue using the congressional districts from the previous election cycle during the state’s August primaries.
The court declined that request.
END
GAMING/XBOX AND MICROSOFT
“Resetting Business”: Xbox Layoffs Loom As New CEO Supercharges Overhaul
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 06:55 AM
Microsoft’s Xbox gaming division is preparing for a major round of job cuts at the end of the month as new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma moves to “reset” the unit amid a confluence of negative and worsening pressures, including shrinking revenue, soft hardware sales, plateauing Game Pass momentum, and what management now describes as an ongoing “hardware component crisis.”
Bloomberg first reported that Microsoft will announce an upcoming round of layoffs after the company’s fiscal year ends on June 30. The report was based on sources familiar with the upcoming restructuring plan, though it did not mention whether AI adoption and efficiency gains are driving the cuts.
In a memo to staff, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma and Matt Booty said the gaming division’s first 100 days under new leadership showed early signs of progress.
“Now we start the next 100 days. It is important to have both optimism and realism as we work to reset the business,” the executives wrote in the memo titled “Next 100 Days: XBOX Reset.”
They continued, “Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue.”
The memo outlined Xbox’s harsh realities it must navigate to achieve a turnaround strategy:
1. Over 1 billion players choose to play XBOX and our games each year, for a total of 72 billion hours across Console, PC, Mobile, and Streaming (excluding much of China and a few other properties). Our franchises are also among the largest and most beloved globally and are now breaking records in TV and film. Going forward, our competition is attention. There are more great games, TV series, franchises, creators, content formats, apps, etc., than ever before
2. We will end this fiscal year at about a 3% accountability margin, down year-over-year. Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform, and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue.
3. We are in a hardware component crisis. When I joined as CEO in February, the price we paid for console storage components was over 2x as high as we paid last fall. These costs have since doubled again. And as we plan for the 2027 holiday season, we expect another significant increase, taking us over 5x the prices we paid only two years earlier. Memory costs have followed a broadly similar trajectory. While the entire industry is facing a components crisis, we believe we have been impacted more greatly than many of our peers due to the choices we made over the last half decade. We are currently unable to make as many consoles as players want to buy, and we need a new business model and partnerships for hardware as we remain committed to Helix.
4. We expanded our studio system when we needed a pipeline of content to meet multiple strategies across subscription, streaming, and devices. In the process, we have found ourselves over extended as we executed on changing strategies in a landscape of more readily available content. We are the fortunate stewards of industry-defining franchises that have enormous potential and player demand, but we have not adequately funded them to compete and win. At the same time, as we saw this past weekend at Showcase, a reliable pipeline of first- and third-party exclusives and new IP are critical to our success. We need to reassess the balance between these and our investment priorities for the next 5 years.
5. Our current platform infrastructure is not built for the battle ahead. Our systems are overly complex, spanning hundreds of dependencies, which hinders our ability to move fast. We’ve become too reliant on vendors to operate our systems and must become more self-reliant as an engineering culture to build for the future. We must increase the value we ship to players while decreasing the time it takes to do so. Going forward, we’ll evolve and rebuild our stack and look at capabilities across all of XBOX and potential M&A to help us win in hardware, PC, mobile, and streaming.
In February, the CEO told the audience at the Bloomberg Tech conference that she planned on “resetting the business,” which was “not in a healthy spot.”
Xbox and the entire gaming industry have faced mounting headwinds.
TD Securities analyst Doug Creutz pointed out Thursday that mobile gaming remains strong, but console gaming has lost momentum this year:
Industry View: Mobile Had a Really Strong Q1; Tempering Console Expectations
We believe U.S. mobile game spending grew +14% y/y in Q1, comfortably above our expectations, based on reported results at public companies. Note that our model does at least attempt to incorporate the impact of what are rapidly growing DTC businesses across the industry. We expect +10% y/y growth in U.S. mobile game spending for 2026. On the other hand, we previously reduced our 2026 console global software/services spending estimate from +7% y/y to +1% y/y based on (1) the impact of the recent price cut to Xbox Game Pass and (2) the apparent lack of a tentpole title in Nintendo’s 2026 slate.
Xbox reaches more than 1 billion players annually across console, PC, mobile, and streaming, but can’t generate profits? It may be time for AI and automation to streamline the gaming unit, which likely means layoffs are imminent.
The gaming industry is waiting for the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year to rekindle demand.
end
should be interesting!!
(zerohedge)
DOJ Probes Big Banks For Alleged “Debanking” Of Clients
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 08:50 AM
The US Dept of Justice is intensifying scrutiny of some of the country’s largest financial institutions over allegations that customers were denied banking services, or “debanked” for political or ideological reasons, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, led by Jeanine Pirro, has reportedly issued subpoenas to several major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo. Investigators are seeking information on account closures, customer offboarding decisions, and internal records explaining why certain individuals or businesses were denied access to banking services.
According to the WSJ, the inquiry builds on a broader effort launched by the Trump administration to examine claims that banks used their market power to exclude politically disfavored customers or entire industries from the financial system. Supporters of the investigation argue that concerns about debanking have circulated for years, particularly among conservatives and businesses operating in controversial but legal sectors, yet have received limited attention from regulators and law enforcement.
According to reports, prosecutors are requesting lists of customers who may have been removed from banking relationships, as well as documentation supporting those decisions. The investigation appears to be running alongside a review by federal banking regulators, including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which previously indicated it had found preliminary evidence suggesting certain industries may have faced heightened barriers to banking access.
Banks have consistently rejected accusations that political affiliation plays any role in their decisions. Industry representatives maintain that account closures are driven by compliance obligations, anti-money-laundering requirements, risk management concerns, and other regulatory expectations imposed on financial institutions.
A central issue for investigators will be whether any laws were violated when banks chose to terminate customer relationships or avoid particular sectors altogether. Prosecutors are reportedly evaluating potential claims under the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act (FIRREA), a statute that has historically been used in major financial misconduct cases.
The investigation represents one of the most significant federal efforts to date to examine allegations of politically motivated debanking. Whether it ultimately uncovers unlawful conduct remains to be seen, but for many observers, the fact that federal authorities are now formally examining these claims is a step that should have happened years ago.
Trump on Truth Social: The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela & the United States of America. 7:22 AM
Axios’ @BarakRavid: The trigger for President Trump’s strikes on Iran was the downing of a U.S. helicopter, but behind the scenes Trump had been growing more & more frustrated over nearly two weeks of waiting for an Iranian response to his latest offer that still has not arrived, per U.S. officials
WSJ: Trump conveyed a message via Qatar that the strikes were a response to the Apache helicopter incident and were not intended to signal a wider conflict.
OpenAI considers drastic price cuts, anticipating war for users with Anthropic, WSJ reports The company is weighing significant cuts to what it charges for tokens, the unit of measurement artificial-intelligence firms use to bill for their products, according to people familiar with the matter. The move would be in anticipation of similar cuts the company expects at Anthropic, the people said… A price war would be an early test of the strength of both companies’ business models ahead of hotly anticipated public listings… https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-considers-drastic-price-cuts-anticipating-war-for-users-with-anthropic-9b8c178e
Early on Thursday, US stocks rallied moderately; bonds rallied modestly; gasoline rallied sharply; oil rallied modestly; and AI stocks soared. The SOX Index hit +5.3% at 10:03 ET.
ESMs opened lower on Wednesday night and fell to the daily low of 7232.25 at 19:17 ET. They then steadily rallied until they hit 7336.00 at 4:02 ET. ESMs traded in a tight range until they broke lower at 6:57 ET. After falling to 728.30 at 9:41 ET, ESMs jumped up to 7335.50 at 9:55 ET on conditioned dip buying. An ABC decline took ESMs to 7263.00 at 10:58 ET. After a rally to 7323.00 at 12:12 ET, ESMs sank to 7272.50 at 13:22 ET. ESMs and stocks went vertical at 13:26 ET on this:
Trump:Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116732652997120164
Trump posted that above message on Truth Social at 13:28 ET. Rapid buying began at 13:26 ET.
The SOX Index hit +6.05% at 13:45 ET. ESMs hit 7386.50 (+110.00) at 13:44 ET.
The rally stalled on this:
@ariel_oseran: Iran denies approving any text for an agreement with the U.S., contradicting Trump’s recent announcement, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News reports citing an informed source close to the Iranian negotiating team.
ESMs jumped higher and the SOX index soared on frantic buying after this appeared:
Trump: Wejust made a great settlement of war with Iran – BBG 15:30 ET
Trump: “We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran, and we’re going to be subject to finalization of documents, which should get done over the next few days. We’ll probably have a signing, maybe in Europe — and it’s a great thing.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2065156771728031860
Trump: Won’t Be Able to Be There for Signing – BBG 15:33 ET Trump: Vance Will Be at Iran Signing – BBG 15:33 ET
ESMs hit the daily high 7420.00 at 15:36 ET. They then fell to 7390.25 at 16:00 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds soared while AI issues went to the moon of DJT’s deal with Iran assertion. Oil and gasoline declined sharply after being robustly higher earlier.
Negative aspects of previous session Iran said the US has NOT finalized the MOU (NOT a deal), which extends negotiations. Netanyahu’s Office: Israel is not a party to the agreement with Iran.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What are the odds that Iran signs a deal?
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7354.77 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7412.68 (15:36 ET); 7257.33 (11:01 ET)
Fed Balance Sheet: +$13.902B on T-Bills +$9.864B; Reserves: +$ 66.821B
@ariel_oseran: Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei: The MoU agreement with the U.S. has not been finalized. The status of the negotiations was clear to us from the beginning, and most of the text was finalized, but the Americans kept changing their positions. Iran has proven that it will not compromise on what it has defined as a red line. Qatar and Pakistan are active as mediators, and the diplomatic process is affected by the actions of the United States.
Prime Minister of Israel @IsraeliPM The Prime Minister’s Office: President Trump spoke this evening with Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding the emerging memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran to enter into negotiations. (There is NO DEAL to end the war yet!) Even though Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding, the Prime Minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump’s commitment that the final agreement at the conclusion of negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for its terrorist proxies in the region.
Netanyahu: “Israel is not a party to this agreement.”
Today – Traders want to play for the Friday Rally, abetted by Trump’s assertion that a deal will be signed over the weekend. But reports emanating from Iran and Israel claim there is no deal, just the MOU that has been around for months that creates a 60-day negotiation window about nukes and other issues.
For now, traders are NOT concerned that there is NO deal to end the Iran War under consideration.
A reason for the bullishness on Thursday night is probably the euphoric jigginess for the record SpaceX IPO that raised $75B: 555.6m shares at $135 ($1.8 trillion valuation). The Saudi Aramco IPO in 2020 at $29.4B was the previous record IPO.
ESMs are +20.25; NQMs are +132.25; WTI is -$1.38; gasoline is -3.85¢; USMs are -1/32 at 20:07 ET.
If there is no deal to end the Iran War signed over the weekend and the only signing is the old MOU, stocks could be in trouble on Monday. If the MOU is not signed, Monday could be ugly.
Expected Economic Data: June UM Sentiment 46, Current Conditions 46, Expectations 44.7, 1-year Inflation 4.9%, 5-10-year Inflation 3.9%
S&P Index 50-day MA: 7231; 100-day MA: 7012; 150-day MA: 6951; 200-day MA: 6877 DJIA 50-day MA: 49,466;100-day MA: 48,864; 150-day MA: 48,568; 200-day MA: 48,001 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (7394.30 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6078.33 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6842.49 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7553.16 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7325.83 triggers a sell signal
AP: The FBI has seized more than a dozen websites that officials say were part of a Chinese effort to target American workers who have access to classified or sensitive government information, the Justice Department said Wednesday.
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Karen Bass’ Brother Joins Class-Action Lawsuit Against Karen Bass over LA Wildfires
The brother of embattled Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has sued the very city government his sister leads, alleging officials failed to protect homeowners and business owners during the destructive Palisades Fire.
Kenneth Bass and his wife Cindy joined a class-action lawsuit in May against the City of Los Angeles, alleging the city failed to fill the Santa Ynez Reservoir when the wildfire broke out on January 7, 2025, according to multiple reports.
The lawsuit, filed on May 18, was first reported by L.A. Material.
It includes more than 180 plaintiffs and names multiple defendants, including the Bass-run Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.
In the lawsuit, Kenneth Bass alleged he and his wife suffered smoke inhalation injuries, as well as emotional distress stemming from the destruction of their home.
The couple previously owned a property with a pool and panoramic views of the Malibu Pier, according to L.A. Material.
Mayor Bass has publicly referenced her family’s loss, telling reporters in 2025: “The loss that you’re going through, I share indirectly. It’s hit my family too.”
Bass adviser Yusef Robb dismissed questions about the lawsuit, telling reporters that there was “nothing new here.”
“Thousands of people are plaintiffs in this action, which names 18 public and private sector defendants,” Robb added.
A spokesperson for the Los Angeles City Attorney’s Office downplayed the lawsuit, saying the city is confident it is not liable for the wildfires.
Meanwhile, a Frantz Law Group attorney representing Kenneth Bass told the California Post the lawsuit is part of a broader mass tort process and said his family ties are “irrelevant” to his claims.
“As part of the mass tort legal process, Mr. and Mrs. Bass’ names were formally added as some of the nearly 40,000 victims who suffered losses,” the attorney stated. “Their family connections are irrelevant, and as non-public citizens they are entitled to respectful privacy as they pursue their legal rights along with all represented victims.”
Bass was elected mayor in 2022, after serving for over a decade in the U.S. House of Representatives. She is facing a tough re-election campaign amid criticism over her administration’s handling of the wildfire response.
END
Democrats Divided On Platner As GOP Reportedly Has Opposition Research That Will Destroy Him
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 02:00 PM
Graham Platner may have easily won Maine’s Democratic Senate primary Tuesday, but his own party is already trying to figure out how to get rid of him. Democrats openly admit they cannot afford to lose this race if they want to retake the Senate, and Platner is already complicating their plans. Yet, the chaos involving Platner may have only just begun. Maine’s Democratic establishment is clearly uneasy, and national Democrats are not hiding it.AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty
According to a report from NBC News, behind the scenes, party operatives are reportedly circulating negative polling on Platner, exploring whether funding threats might pressure him to withdraw, and testing public opinion with a text poll sent on primary day that asked voters about the allegations of his abusive and demeaning treatment of women.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is fully in Platner’s corner, and he made his reasoning transparent. “There is no great secret that there is a strong division within the Democratic Party,” Sanders said, criticizing the party establishment and praising Platner for challenging it. On the abuse allegations specifically, Sanders is choosing to take Platner’s denials at face value.
“He denies it, she says something else, but what I do know is that there are people in the United States Senate right now who are not saints.” He then pivoted to senators who voted for the Iraq War and tax cuts. Sanders is essentially arguing that Platner’s personal failings are less disqualifying than the establishment’s policy sins. Even Tina Smith (D-Minn.), who replaced Al Franken after his resignation over groping allegations, endorsed Platner without hesitation.
But the anxiety over Platner with the Democratic Party is very real. Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) outright said she is “not comfortable” with Platner as the nominee. “I will not defend someone with that kind of history.” Former Rep. Tom Malinowski argued that the steady stream of revelations says more than any single allegation. “If a man’s past keeps surprising us, it’s a safe bet that his present and future will continue to surprise us as well,” he said, calling Platner a “moral dilemma” and warning Democrats against repeating what he described as the mistake of embracing candidates more defined by their anti-establishment appeal than their fitness for office.
“The easiest, most logical and most likely path to picking up seats is with Maine in our column,” a senior Democratic strategist said. “It’s a struggle to see how we get the majority without Maine.” Platner’s internal polling already shows his lead over five-term incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) shrinking to four points – this in a state that went for Kamala Harris by seven in 2024. He is underperforming the baseline in the most favorable environment Democrats have had in years.
But the Platner campaign is showing no signs of leaving voluntarily.
“The Democrats of Maine have made clear who their choice is,” Platner adviser Rebecca Katz said. “And the rest of the party should honor that choice.” That may be true. It may also be exactly what the Republican Party is counting on.
Under Maine law, Platner would need to voluntarily withdraw by July 13 for Democrats to replace him on the ballot. According to NBC News, a Republican strategist involved in Senate races said the GOP is deliberately withholding additional opposition research until the candidate-replacement deadline passes, so Democrats are unable to replace him the same way Joe Biden was pushed out of the 2024 presidential race after it became politically impossible to keep him on the ticket.
Once that deadline passes and Republicans unleash whatever opposition research they have been sitting on, the Democrats will have no options left, just a nominee they cannot fully defend in a race they cannot afford to lose.
US President Donald Trump sits during an event in the Oval Office of the White House, June 11, 2026, in Washington. (AP/Jacquelyn Martin)
Ultra-Orthodox men block a highway between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, on June 11, 2026. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
IDF troops operate near the Wadi Saluki stream in southern Lebanon, in a handout photo published June 11, 2026. (Israel Defense Forces)
Illustrative: A US Air Force F-35 Lightning II assigned to the 48th Fighter Wing, approaches a KC-135 Stratotanker during a refueling mission over Sweden, June 10, 2026. (US Air Force)
This screen grab made from a handout video recorded on June 10, 2026, and released by US Central Command on June 11, 2026, shows what the US military says is a strike by US forces targeting and disabling the Guinea-Bissau flagged tanker M/T Jalveer as it allegedly attempted to evade a US counter-blockade of Iranian ports. (US Central Command Public Affairs / AFP)
Firefighters work to extinguish a fire caused by a debris from intercepted Iranian drones in Manama, Bahrain, June 11, 2026. (Bahrain Interior Ministry)
Mourners carry the coffin of Hezbollah operative Hassan Ali Kallas, from the southern Lebanese village of Nabatieh al Fawka, during his funeral at a temporary cemetery in the southern coastal Lebanese city of Sidon, on June 11, 2026. (Anwar AMRO / AFP)
AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty
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